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000
FXUS61 KBGM 260536
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1236 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WILL IMPACT ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND A LARGE PART
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IS EXPECTED FROM THE POCONOS TO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND TAPER OFF TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. SNOWFALL OF 5 TO
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE CATSKILLS
WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LESS THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE
SYRACUSE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...
L/WV TROF IS MVG THRU MS VLY AT THIS TIME WITH STRONG S/WV
ROUNDING BASE OF TROF OVR LWR MS RVR. CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY ACRS
NE GOM WITH PCPN NOW BEING REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS THE PIEDMONT
OF NC. LATEST MODELS HV TRENDED JUST A TAD SLOWER WITH PCPN
EXPECTED TO MV INTO CWA CLOSER TO 12Z. RUC AND HIRES ARW SEEM TO
HV BEST HANDLE ON PCPN AS OF 00Z AND NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ECHOES MVG INTO POCONOS UNTIL 11Z AT THE EARLIEST.

AS PCPN HEADS NORTH EXPECTING TO SEE JUST A WALL OF SNOW HEADING
AT US. THUS HV GONE FM LOCHC POPS TO CATEGORICAL DRG THE MRNG HRS.
18Z NAM HAS TRENDED A TAD WETTER AND FURTHER WEST WITH PCPN WITH
24-HR AMNTS OVR 1+ INCHES OVR FAR SE ZONES AND 0.75 INCHES AS FAR
WEST AS AN ELMIRA-UTICA LINE. WL EVALUATE 00Z GUIDANCE COMING IN
AND POSSIBLY EXPAND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FURTHER WEST OVRNGT.

FOR NOW, HV LWRD SNOW AMNTS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z OVR NEPA AND ADJUSTED
AMNTS HIGHER FOR THE 12Z-18Z TIMEFRAME AS THIS LOOKS TO BE
PRIMETIME. CONCERN IS THAT MESOSCALE BANDING WL SET UP JUST A HAIR
FURTHER WEST LATE MRNG OR EARLY AFTN THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING.
TREMENDOUS VERTICAL MOTION EXPECTED LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN HRS IN
AREA OF ENHANCE UPWARD DIFFLUENCE AS CWA WL LKLY BE IN RRQ OF H2
JET. NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WWD AND MODEL QPFS. MODELS ALL
INDICATE THAT CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
STORM WILL NOT CLOSE OFF AT 700 MB UNTIL IT IS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS LINGERING WRAP ARND ACCUMULATIONS THAT WE
OFTEN SEE IN C NY/NRN PA. BASICALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL RUN INTO UPPER
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MARITIMES BY THURSDAY AND SHEAR OUT. BUT IN THE
PROCESS SIGNIFICANT WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE IS RUNNING INTO
THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
OVER SERN CANADA. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS
FROM NE PA TO DELAWARE/SULLIVAN CO/S IN NY.

CROSS SECTIONS NORMAL TO THE THICKNESS ACROSS NE AND C NY SHOW A
CLASSIC SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING WED PM WITH LOW STATIC
STABILITY ABOVE OR EVEN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ALOFT. THIS IS A RECIPE
FOR MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS AND BELIEVE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
FORM SOMEWHERE IN OUR WARNING AREA. IN GRIDS HAVE MENTION OF
HEAVY SNOW IN THIS AREA. I ALSO AM CONCERNED THAT THIS BAND COULD
TRACK FARTHER WEST AS IS OFTEN THE CASE AND IMPACT OUR ADVY AREA. THE
12Z EURO NOW HAS MORE QPF FARTHER WEST TOO. FOR NOW HAVE A ROW OF
WINTER WX ADVY/S AS A BUFFER ZONE FROM TOWANDA TO BINGHAMTON TO
COOPERSTOWN AND NORWICH. THIS AREA COULD GET INTO SOME HEAVY SNOW.
IT DEPENDS ON WHERE THIS MESOSCALE BAND SETS UP. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR. OUR BRIEFINGS WILL MENTION THE CHANCE THAT SOME
HEAVIER SNOW COULD FALL FARTHER WEST.

FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER DOWN TO
SNOW SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE AS THE STORM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
CAA WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CWA THURS AS THE SFC
LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NY AND PA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THURS
BEING FAIRLY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. EVEN THOUGH THE POTENT STORM THAT HAVE CAUSED WARNINGS
ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH BY THURS... THIS DOES
NOT MEAN AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL STILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE THE RESULT FROM AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH.

THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TO BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.
SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF
THE CLIPPER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS A VERY COLD AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN OVER NY AND PA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BUT SADLY THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE WX
PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A CHANCE FOR EITHER SNOW OR RAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY SAT THEN SLOWLY BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS UPON FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE SFC
LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE HINTS AT HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING STARTING TO BUILD OVER REGION ON MONDAY. THIS MAY
BRIEFLY HALT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.

TIMING OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z SOUTHERN TERMINALS,
AND AFTER 15Z UP NORTH. AIRPORT MINS WILL BE APPROACHED AT
KBGM/KAVP A FEW HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF THE SNOW, THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST FROM KELM TO KITH, KSYR,
AND KRME IFR VSBYS LIKELY BUT NOT AS LOW AS FARTHER SOUTH.

VSBYS WILL TEND TO RISE AFTER 00Z AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT OUT
OF THE AREA. XPCT CIGS AND VSBY GNRLY IN THE MVFR RANGE THRU THE
END OF THEPD...AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY BHD THE STORM.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-
     055-056.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVF
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DGM/HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 260536
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1236 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WILL IMPACT ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND A LARGE PART
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IS EXPECTED FROM THE POCONOS TO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND TAPER OFF TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. SNOWFALL OF 5 TO
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE CATSKILLS
WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LESS THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE
SYRACUSE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...
L/WV TROF IS MVG THRU MS VLY AT THIS TIME WITH STRONG S/WV
ROUNDING BASE OF TROF OVR LWR MS RVR. CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY ACRS
NE GOM WITH PCPN NOW BEING REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS THE PIEDMONT
OF NC. LATEST MODELS HV TRENDED JUST A TAD SLOWER WITH PCPN
EXPECTED TO MV INTO CWA CLOSER TO 12Z. RUC AND HIRES ARW SEEM TO
HV BEST HANDLE ON PCPN AS OF 00Z AND NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ECHOES MVG INTO POCONOS UNTIL 11Z AT THE EARLIEST.

AS PCPN HEADS NORTH EXPECTING TO SEE JUST A WALL OF SNOW HEADING
AT US. THUS HV GONE FM LOCHC POPS TO CATEGORICAL DRG THE MRNG HRS.
18Z NAM HAS TRENDED A TAD WETTER AND FURTHER WEST WITH PCPN WITH
24-HR AMNTS OVR 1+ INCHES OVR FAR SE ZONES AND 0.75 INCHES AS FAR
WEST AS AN ELMIRA-UTICA LINE. WL EVALUATE 00Z GUIDANCE COMING IN
AND POSSIBLY EXPAND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FURTHER WEST OVRNGT.

FOR NOW, HV LWRD SNOW AMNTS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z OVR NEPA AND ADJUSTED
AMNTS HIGHER FOR THE 12Z-18Z TIMEFRAME AS THIS LOOKS TO BE
PRIMETIME. CONCERN IS THAT MESOSCALE BANDING WL SET UP JUST A HAIR
FURTHER WEST LATE MRNG OR EARLY AFTN THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING.
TREMENDOUS VERTICAL MOTION EXPECTED LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN HRS IN
AREA OF ENHANCE UPWARD DIFFLUENCE AS CWA WL LKLY BE IN RRQ OF H2
JET. NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WWD AND MODEL QPFS. MODELS ALL
INDICATE THAT CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
STORM WILL NOT CLOSE OFF AT 700 MB UNTIL IT IS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS LINGERING WRAP ARND ACCUMULATIONS THAT WE
OFTEN SEE IN C NY/NRN PA. BASICALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL RUN INTO UPPER
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MARITIMES BY THURSDAY AND SHEAR OUT. BUT IN THE
PROCESS SIGNIFICANT WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE IS RUNNING INTO
THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
OVER SERN CANADA. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS
FROM NE PA TO DELAWARE/SULLIVAN CO/S IN NY.

CROSS SECTIONS NORMAL TO THE THICKNESS ACROSS NE AND C NY SHOW A
CLASSIC SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING WED PM WITH LOW STATIC
STABILITY ABOVE OR EVEN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ALOFT. THIS IS A RECIPE
FOR MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS AND BELIEVE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
FORM SOMEWHERE IN OUR WARNING AREA. IN GRIDS HAVE MENTION OF
HEAVY SNOW IN THIS AREA. I ALSO AM CONCERNED THAT THIS BAND COULD
TRACK FARTHER WEST AS IS OFTEN THE CASE AND IMPACT OUR ADVY AREA. THE
12Z EURO NOW HAS MORE QPF FARTHER WEST TOO. FOR NOW HAVE A ROW OF
WINTER WX ADVY/S AS A BUFFER ZONE FROM TOWANDA TO BINGHAMTON TO
COOPERSTOWN AND NORWICH. THIS AREA COULD GET INTO SOME HEAVY SNOW.
IT DEPENDS ON WHERE THIS MESOSCALE BAND SETS UP. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR. OUR BRIEFINGS WILL MENTION THE CHANCE THAT SOME
HEAVIER SNOW COULD FALL FARTHER WEST.

FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER DOWN TO
SNOW SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE AS THE STORM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
CAA WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CWA THURS AS THE SFC
LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NY AND PA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THURS
BEING FAIRLY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. EVEN THOUGH THE POTENT STORM THAT HAVE CAUSED WARNINGS
ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH BY THURS... THIS DOES
NOT MEAN AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL STILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE THE RESULT FROM AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH.

THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TO BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.
SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF
THE CLIPPER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS A VERY COLD AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN OVER NY AND PA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BUT SADLY THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE WX
PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A CHANCE FOR EITHER SNOW OR RAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY SAT THEN SLOWLY BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS UPON FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE SFC
LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE HINTS AT HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING STARTING TO BUILD OVER REGION ON MONDAY. THIS MAY
BRIEFLY HALT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.

TIMING OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z SOUTHERN TERMINALS,
AND AFTER 15Z UP NORTH. AIRPORT MINS WILL BE APPROACHED AT
KBGM/KAVP A FEW HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF THE SNOW, THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST FROM KELM TO KITH, KSYR,
AND KRME IFR VSBYS LIKELY BUT NOT AS LOW AS FARTHER SOUTH.

VSBYS WILL TEND TO RISE AFTER 00Z AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT OUT
OF THE AREA. XPCT CIGS AND VSBY GNRLY IN THE MVFR RANGE THRU THE
END OF THEPD...AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY BHD THE STORM.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-
     055-056.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVF
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DGM/HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 260104
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
804 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WILL IMPACT ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND A LARGE PART
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IS EXPECTED FROM THE POCONOS TO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND TAPER OFF TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. SNOWFALL OF 5 TO
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE CATSKILLS
WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LESS THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE
SYRACUSE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...
L/WV TROF IS MVG THRU MS VLY AT THIS TIME WITH STRONG S/WV
ROUNDING BASE OF TROF OVR LWR MS RVR. CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY ACRS
NE GOM WITH PCPN NOW BEING REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS THE PIEDMONT
OF NC. LATEST MODELS HV TRENDED JUST A TAD SLOWER WITH PCPN
EXPECTED TO MV INTO CWA CLOSER TO 12Z. RUC AND HIRES ARW SEEM TO
HV BEST HANDLE ON PCPN AS OF 00Z AND NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ECHOES MVG INTO POCONOS UNTIL 11Z AT THE EARLIEST.

AS PCPN HEADS NORTH EXPECTING TO SEE JUST A WALL OF SNOW HEADING
AT US. THUS HV GONE FM LOCHC POPS TO CATEGORICAL DRG THE MRNG HRS.
18Z NAM HAS TRENDED A TAD WETTER AND FURTHER WEST WITH PCPN WITH
24-HR AMNTS OVR 1+ INCHES OVR FAR SE ZONES AND 0.75 INCHES AS FAR
WEST AS AN ELMIRA-UTICA LINE. WL EVALUATE 00Z GUIDANCE COMING IN
AND POSSIBLY EXPAND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FURTHER WEST OVRNGT.

FOR NOW, HV LWRD SNOW AMNTS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z OVR NEPA AND ADJUSTED
AMNTS HIGHER FOR THE 12Z-18Z TIMEFRAME AS THIS LOOKS TO BE
PRIMETIME. CONCERN IS THAT MESOSCALE BANDING WL SET UP JUST A HAIR
FURTHER WEST LATE MRNG OR EARLY AFTN THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING.
TREMENDOUS VERTICAL MOTION EXPECTED LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN HRS IN
AREA OF ENHANCE UPWARD DIFFLUENCE AS CWA WL LKLY BE IN RRQ OF H2
JET. NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WWD AND MODEL QPFS. MODELS ALL
INDICATE THAT CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
STORM WILL NOT CLOSE OFF AT 700 MB UNTIL IT IS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS LINGERING WRAP ARND ACCUMULATIONS THAT WE
OFTEN SEE IN C NY/NRN PA. BASICALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL RUN INTO UPPER
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MARITIMES BY THURSDAY AND SHEAR OUT. BUT IN THE
PROCESS SIGNIFICANT WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE IS RUNNING INTO
THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
OVER SERN CANADA. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS
FROM NE PA TO DELAWARE/SULLIVAN CO/S IN NY.

CROSS SECTIONS NORMAL TO THE THICKNESS ACROSS NE AND C NY SHOW A
CLASSIC SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING WED PM WITH LOW STATIC
STABILITY ABOVE OR EVEN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ALOFT. THIS IS A RECIPE
FOR MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS AND BELIEVE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
FORM SOMEWHERE IN OUR WARNING AREA. IN GRIDS HAVE MENTION OF
HEAVY SNOW IN THIS AREA. I ALSO AM CONCERNED THAT THIS BAND COULD
TRACK FARTHER WEST AS IS OFTEN THE CASE AND IMPACT OUR ADVY AREA. THE
12Z EURO NOW HAS MORE QPF FARTHER WEST TOO. FOR NOW HAVE A ROW OF
WINTER WX ADVY/S AS A BUFFER ZONE FROM TOWANDA TO BINGHAMTON TO
COOPERSTOWN AND NORWICH. THIS AREA COULD GET INTO SOME HEAVY SNOW.
IT DEPENDS ON WHERE THIS MESOSCALE BAND SETS UP. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR. OUR BRIEFINGS WILL MENTION THE CHANCE THAT SOME
HEAVIER SNOW COULD FALL FARTHER WEST.

FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER DOWN TO
SNOW SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE AS THE STORM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
CAA WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CWA THURS AS THE SFC
LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NY AND PA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THURS
BEING FAIRLY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. EVEN THOUGH THE POTENT STORM THAT HAVE CAUSED WARNINGS
ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH BY THURS... THIS DOES
NOT MEAN AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL STILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE THE RESULT FROM AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH.

THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TO BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.
SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF
THE CLIPPER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS A VERY COLD AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN OVER NY AND PA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BUT SADLY THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE WX
PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A CHANCE FOR EITHER SNOW OR RAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY SAT THEN SLOWLY BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS UPON FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE SFC
LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE HINTS AT HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING STARTING TO BUILD OVER REGION ON MONDAY. THIS MAY
BRIEFLY HALT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.

TIMING OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z SOUTHERN TERMINALS,
AND AFTER 15Z UP NORTH. AIRPORT MINS WILL BE APPROACHED AT
KBGM/KAVP A FEW HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF THE SNOW, THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST FROM KELM TO KITH, KSYR,
AND KRME IFR VSBYS LIKELY BUT NOT AS LOW AS FARTHER SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-055-056.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVF
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 260104
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
804 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WILL IMPACT ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND A LARGE PART
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IS EXPECTED FROM THE POCONOS TO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND TAPER OFF TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. SNOWFALL OF 5 TO
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE CATSKILLS
WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LESS THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE
SYRACUSE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...
L/WV TROF IS MVG THRU MS VLY AT THIS TIME WITH STRONG S/WV
ROUNDING BASE OF TROF OVR LWR MS RVR. CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY ACRS
NE GOM WITH PCPN NOW BEING REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS THE PIEDMONT
OF NC. LATEST MODELS HV TRENDED JUST A TAD SLOWER WITH PCPN
EXPECTED TO MV INTO CWA CLOSER TO 12Z. RUC AND HIRES ARW SEEM TO
HV BEST HANDLE ON PCPN AS OF 00Z AND NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ECHOES MVG INTO POCONOS UNTIL 11Z AT THE EARLIEST.

AS PCPN HEADS NORTH EXPECTING TO SEE JUST A WALL OF SNOW HEADING
AT US. THUS HV GONE FM LOCHC POPS TO CATEGORICAL DRG THE MRNG HRS.
18Z NAM HAS TRENDED A TAD WETTER AND FURTHER WEST WITH PCPN WITH
24-HR AMNTS OVR 1+ INCHES OVR FAR SE ZONES AND 0.75 INCHES AS FAR
WEST AS AN ELMIRA-UTICA LINE. WL EVALUATE 00Z GUIDANCE COMING IN
AND POSSIBLY EXPAND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FURTHER WEST OVRNGT.

FOR NOW, HV LWRD SNOW AMNTS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z OVR NEPA AND ADJUSTED
AMNTS HIGHER FOR THE 12Z-18Z TIMEFRAME AS THIS LOOKS TO BE
PRIMETIME. CONCERN IS THAT MESOSCALE BANDING WL SET UP JUST A HAIR
FURTHER WEST LATE MRNG OR EARLY AFTN THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING.
TREMENDOUS VERTICAL MOTION EXPECTED LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN HRS IN
AREA OF ENHANCE UPWARD DIFFLUENCE AS CWA WL LKLY BE IN RRQ OF H2
JET. NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WWD AND MODEL QPFS. MODELS ALL
INDICATE THAT CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
STORM WILL NOT CLOSE OFF AT 700 MB UNTIL IT IS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS LINGERING WRAP ARND ACCUMULATIONS THAT WE
OFTEN SEE IN C NY/NRN PA. BASICALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL RUN INTO UPPER
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MARITIMES BY THURSDAY AND SHEAR OUT. BUT IN THE
PROCESS SIGNIFICANT WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE IS RUNNING INTO
THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
OVER SERN CANADA. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS
FROM NE PA TO DELAWARE/SULLIVAN CO/S IN NY.

CROSS SECTIONS NORMAL TO THE THICKNESS ACROSS NE AND C NY SHOW A
CLASSIC SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING WED PM WITH LOW STATIC
STABILITY ABOVE OR EVEN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ALOFT. THIS IS A RECIPE
FOR MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS AND BELIEVE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
FORM SOMEWHERE IN OUR WARNING AREA. IN GRIDS HAVE MENTION OF
HEAVY SNOW IN THIS AREA. I ALSO AM CONCERNED THAT THIS BAND COULD
TRACK FARTHER WEST AS IS OFTEN THE CASE AND IMPACT OUR ADVY AREA. THE
12Z EURO NOW HAS MORE QPF FARTHER WEST TOO. FOR NOW HAVE A ROW OF
WINTER WX ADVY/S AS A BUFFER ZONE FROM TOWANDA TO BINGHAMTON TO
COOPERSTOWN AND NORWICH. THIS AREA COULD GET INTO SOME HEAVY SNOW.
IT DEPENDS ON WHERE THIS MESOSCALE BAND SETS UP. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR. OUR BRIEFINGS WILL MENTION THE CHANCE THAT SOME
HEAVIER SNOW COULD FALL FARTHER WEST.

FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER DOWN TO
SNOW SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE AS THE STORM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
CAA WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CWA THURS AS THE SFC
LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NY AND PA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THURS
BEING FAIRLY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. EVEN THOUGH THE POTENT STORM THAT HAVE CAUSED WARNINGS
ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH BY THURS... THIS DOES
NOT MEAN AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL STILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE THE RESULT FROM AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH.

THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TO BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.
SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF
THE CLIPPER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS A VERY COLD AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN OVER NY AND PA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BUT SADLY THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE WX
PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A CHANCE FOR EITHER SNOW OR RAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY SAT THEN SLOWLY BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS UPON FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE SFC
LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE HINTS AT HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING STARTING TO BUILD OVER REGION ON MONDAY. THIS MAY
BRIEFLY HALT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.

TIMING OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z SOUTHERN TERMINALS,
AND AFTER 15Z UP NORTH. AIRPORT MINS WILL BE APPROACHED AT
KBGM/KAVP A FEW HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF THE SNOW, THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST FROM KELM TO KITH, KSYR,
AND KRME IFR VSBYS LIKELY BUT NOT AS LOW AS FARTHER SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-055-056.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVF
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 260039
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
739 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WILL IMPACT ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND A LARGE PART
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IS EXPECTED FROM THE POCONOS TO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND TAPER OFF TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. SNOWFALL OF 5 TO
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE CATSKILLS
WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LESS THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE
SYRACUSE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WWD AND MODEL QPFS. MODELS ALL
INDICATE THAT CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
STORM WILL NOT CLOSE OFF AT 700 MB UNTIL IT IS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS LINGERING WRAP ARND ACCUMULATIONS THAT WE
OFTEN SEE IN C NY/NRN PA. BASICALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL RUN INTO UPPER
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MARITIMES BY THURSDAY AND SHEAR OUT. BUT IN THE
PROCESS SIGNIFICANT WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE IS RUNNING INTO
THE UPPER DIFFLUNCE OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
OVER SERN CANADA. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS
FROM NE PA TO DELWARE/SULLIVAN CO/S IN NY.

CROSS SECTIONS NORMAL TO THE THICKNESS ACROSS NE AND C NY SHOW A
CLASSIC SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING WED PM WITH LOW STATIC
STABILITY ABOVE OR EVEN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ALOFT. THIS IS A RECIPE
FOR MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS AND BELIEVE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
FORM SOMEWHERE IN OUR WARNING AREA. IN GRIDS HAVE MENTION OF
HEAVY SNOW IN THIS AREA. I ALSO AM CONCERNED THAT THIS BAND COULD
TRACK FARTHER WEST AS IS OFTEN THE CASE AND IMPACT OUR ADVY AREA. THE
12Z EURO NOW HAS MORE QPF FARTHER WEST TOO. FOR NOW HAVE A ROW OF
WINTER WX ADVY/S AS A BUFFER ZONE FROM TOWANDA TO BINGHAMTON TO
COOPERSTOWN AND NORWICH. THIS AREA COULD GET INTO SOME HEAVY SNOW.
IT DEPENDS ON WHERE THIS MESOSCALE BAND SETS UP. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR. OUR BRIEFINGS WILL MENTION THE CHANCE THAT SOME
HEAVIER SNOW COULD FALL FARTHER WEST.

FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER DOWN TO
SNOW SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE AS THE STORM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
CAA WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CWA THURS AS THE SFC
LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NY AND PA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THURS
BEING FAIRLY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. EVEN THOUGH THE POTENT STORM THAT HAVE CAUSED WARNINGS
ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH BY THURS... THIS DOES
NOT MEAN AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL STILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE THE RESULT FROM AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH.

THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TO BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.
SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF
THE CLIPPER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS A VERY COLD AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN OVER NY AND PA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BUT SADLY THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE WX
PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A CHANCE FOR EITHER SNOW OR RAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY SAT THEN SLOWLY BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS UPON FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE SFC
LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE HINTS AT HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING STARTING TO BUILD OVER REGION ON MONDAY. THIS MAY
BRIEFLY HALT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.

TIMING OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z SOUTHERN TERMINALS,
AND AFTER 15Z UP NORTH. AIRPORT MINS WILL BE APPROACHED AT
KBGM/KAVP A FEW HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF THE SNOW, THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST FROM KELM TO KITH, KSYR,
AND KRME IFR VSBYS LIKELY BUT NOT AS LOW AS FARTHER SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-055-056.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 260039
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
739 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WILL IMPACT ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND A LARGE PART
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IS EXPECTED FROM THE POCONOS TO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND TAPER OFF TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. SNOWFALL OF 5 TO
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE CATSKILLS
WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LESS THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE
SYRACUSE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WWD AND MODEL QPFS. MODELS ALL
INDICATE THAT CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
STORM WILL NOT CLOSE OFF AT 700 MB UNTIL IT IS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS LINGERING WRAP ARND ACCUMULATIONS THAT WE
OFTEN SEE IN C NY/NRN PA. BASICALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL RUN INTO UPPER
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MARITIMES BY THURSDAY AND SHEAR OUT. BUT IN THE
PROCESS SIGNIFICANT WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE IS RUNNING INTO
THE UPPER DIFFLUNCE OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
OVER SERN CANADA. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS
FROM NE PA TO DELWARE/SULLIVAN CO/S IN NY.

CROSS SECTIONS NORMAL TO THE THICKNESS ACROSS NE AND C NY SHOW A
CLASSIC SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING WED PM WITH LOW STATIC
STABILITY ABOVE OR EVEN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ALOFT. THIS IS A RECIPE
FOR MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS AND BELIEVE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
FORM SOMEWHERE IN OUR WARNING AREA. IN GRIDS HAVE MENTION OF
HEAVY SNOW IN THIS AREA. I ALSO AM CONCERNED THAT THIS BAND COULD
TRACK FARTHER WEST AS IS OFTEN THE CASE AND IMPACT OUR ADVY AREA. THE
12Z EURO NOW HAS MORE QPF FARTHER WEST TOO. FOR NOW HAVE A ROW OF
WINTER WX ADVY/S AS A BUFFER ZONE FROM TOWANDA TO BINGHAMTON TO
COOPERSTOWN AND NORWICH. THIS AREA COULD GET INTO SOME HEAVY SNOW.
IT DEPENDS ON WHERE THIS MESOSCALE BAND SETS UP. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR. OUR BRIEFINGS WILL MENTION THE CHANCE THAT SOME
HEAVIER SNOW COULD FALL FARTHER WEST.

FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER DOWN TO
SNOW SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE AS THE STORM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
CAA WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CWA THURS AS THE SFC
LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NY AND PA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THURS
BEING FAIRLY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. EVEN THOUGH THE POTENT STORM THAT HAVE CAUSED WARNINGS
ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH BY THURS... THIS DOES
NOT MEAN AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL STILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE THE RESULT FROM AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH.

THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TO BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.
SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF
THE CLIPPER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS A VERY COLD AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN OVER NY AND PA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BUT SADLY THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE WX
PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A CHANCE FOR EITHER SNOW OR RAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY SAT THEN SLOWLY BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS UPON FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE SFC
LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE HINTS AT HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING STARTING TO BUILD OVER REGION ON MONDAY. THIS MAY
BRIEFLY HALT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.

TIMING OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z SOUTHERN TERMINALS,
AND AFTER 15Z UP NORTH. AIRPORT MINS WILL BE APPROACHED AT
KBGM/KAVP A FEW HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF THE SNOW, THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST FROM KELM TO KITH, KSYR,
AND KRME IFR VSBYS LIKELY BUT NOT AS LOW AS FARTHER SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-055-056.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 252008
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
308 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WILL IMPACT ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND A LARGE PART
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IS EXPECTED FROM THE POCONOS TO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND TAPER OFF TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. SNOWFALL OF 5 TO
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE CATSKILLS
WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LESS THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE
SYRACUSE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WWD AND MODEL QPFS. MODELS ALL
INDICATE THAT CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
STORM WILL NOT CLOSE OFF AT 700 MB UNTIL IT IS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS LINGERING WRAP ARND ACCUMULATIONS THAT WE
OFTEN SEE IN C NY/NRN PA. BASICALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL RUN INTO UPPER
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MARITIMES BY THURSDAY AND SHEAR OUT. BUT IN THE
PROCESS SIGNIFICANT WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE IS RUNNING INTO
THE UPPER DIFFLUNCE OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
OVER SERN CANADA. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS
FROM NE PA TO DELWARE/SULLIVAN CO/S IN NY.

CROSS SECTIONS NORMAL TO THE THICKNESS ACROSS NE AND C NY SHOW A
CLASSIC SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING WED PM WITH LOW STATIC
STABILITY ABOVE OR EVEN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ALOFT. THIS IS A RECIPE
FOR MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS AND BELIEVE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
FORM SOMEWHERE IN OUR WARNING AREA. IN GRIDS HAVE MENTION OF
HEAVY SNOW IN THIS AREA. I ALSO AM CONCERNED THAT THIS BAND COULD
TRACK FARTHER WEST AS IS OFTEN THE CASE AND IMPACT OUR ADVY AREA. THE
12Z EURO NOW HAS MORE QPF FARTHER WEST TOO. FOR NOW HAVE A ROW OF
WINTER WX ADVY/S AS A BUFFER ZONE FROM TOWANDA TO BINGHAMTON TO
COOPERSTOWN AND NORWICH. THIS AREA COULD GET INTO SOME HEAVY SNOW.
IT DEPENDS ON WHERE THIS MESOSCALE BAND SETS UP. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR. OUR BRIEFINGS WILL MENTION THE CHANCE THAT SOME
HEAVIER SNOW COULD FALL FARTHER WEST.

FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER DOWN TO
SNOW SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE AS THE STORM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
CAA WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CWA THURS AS THE SFC
LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NY AND PA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THURS
BEING FAIRLY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. EVEN THOUGH THE POTENT STORM THAT HAVE CAUSED WARNINGS
ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH BY THURS... THIS DOES
NOT MEAN AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL STILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE THE RESULT FROM AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH.

THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TO BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.
SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF
THE CLIPPER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS A VERY COLD AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN OVER NY AND PA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BUT SADLY THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE WX
PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A CHANCE FOR EITHER SNOW OR RAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY SAT THEN SLOWLY BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS UPON FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE SFC
LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE HINTS AT HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING STARTING TO BUILD OVER REGION ON MONDAY. THIS MAY
BRIEFLY HALT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE WINTER STORM IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TODAY.
AHEAD OF THE STORM EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND VFR SKIES. THIS
STORM WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY/TONIGHT PLACING
THE REGION IN THE NW CORNER OF THE SFC LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW OVER KAVP AND KBGM. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT KAVP WILL SEE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LOW END IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. KBGM MAY SEE THESE CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS GREAT AT KBGM DUE TO THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION WHERE HEAVY SNOW BANDS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER WEST. ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION AND EXPECT VISBYS TO
FALL TO IFR AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-055-056.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 252008
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
308 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WILL IMPACT ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND A LARGE PART
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IS EXPECTED FROM THE POCONOS TO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND TAPER OFF TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. SNOWFALL OF 5 TO
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE CATSKILLS
WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LESS THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE
SYRACUSE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WWD AND MODEL QPFS. MODELS ALL
INDICATE THAT CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
STORM WILL NOT CLOSE OFF AT 700 MB UNTIL IT IS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS LINGERING WRAP ARND ACCUMULATIONS THAT WE
OFTEN SEE IN C NY/NRN PA. BASICALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL RUN INTO UPPER
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MARITIMES BY THURSDAY AND SHEAR OUT. BUT IN THE
PROCESS SIGNIFICANT WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE IS RUNNING INTO
THE UPPER DIFFLUNCE OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
OVER SERN CANADA. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS
FROM NE PA TO DELWARE/SULLIVAN CO/S IN NY.

CROSS SECTIONS NORMAL TO THE THICKNESS ACROSS NE AND C NY SHOW A
CLASSIC SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING WED PM WITH LOW STATIC
STABILITY ABOVE OR EVEN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ALOFT. THIS IS A RECIPE
FOR MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS AND BELIEVE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
FORM SOMEWHERE IN OUR WARNING AREA. IN GRIDS HAVE MENTION OF
HEAVY SNOW IN THIS AREA. I ALSO AM CONCERNED THAT THIS BAND COULD
TRACK FARTHER WEST AS IS OFTEN THE CASE AND IMPACT OUR ADVY AREA. THE
12Z EURO NOW HAS MORE QPF FARTHER WEST TOO. FOR NOW HAVE A ROW OF
WINTER WX ADVY/S AS A BUFFER ZONE FROM TOWANDA TO BINGHAMTON TO
COOPERSTOWN AND NORWICH. THIS AREA COULD GET INTO SOME HEAVY SNOW.
IT DEPENDS ON WHERE THIS MESOSCALE BAND SETS UP. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR. OUR BRIEFINGS WILL MENTION THE CHANCE THAT SOME
HEAVIER SNOW COULD FALL FARTHER WEST.

FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER DOWN TO
SNOW SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE AS THE STORM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
CAA WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CWA THURS AS THE SFC
LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NY AND PA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THURS
BEING FAIRLY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. EVEN THOUGH THE POTENT STORM THAT HAVE CAUSED WARNINGS
ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH BY THURS... THIS DOES
NOT MEAN AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL STILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE THE RESULT FROM AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH.

THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TO BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.
SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF
THE CLIPPER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS A VERY COLD AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN OVER NY AND PA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BUT SADLY THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE WX
PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A CHANCE FOR EITHER SNOW OR RAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY SAT THEN SLOWLY BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS UPON FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE SFC
LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE HINTS AT HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING STARTING TO BUILD OVER REGION ON MONDAY. THIS MAY
BRIEFLY HALT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE WINTER STORM IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TODAY.
AHEAD OF THE STORM EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND VFR SKIES. THIS
STORM WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY/TONIGHT PLACING
THE REGION IN THE NW CORNER OF THE SFC LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW OVER KAVP AND KBGM. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT KAVP WILL SEE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LOW END IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. KBGM MAY SEE THESE CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS GREAT AT KBGM DUE TO THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION WHERE HEAVY SNOW BANDS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER WEST. ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION AND EXPECT VISBYS TO
FALL TO IFR AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-055-056.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH









000
FXUS61 KBGM 251936
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
236 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WILL IMPACT ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND A LARGE PART
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IS EXPECTED FROM THE POCONOS TO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND TAPER OFF TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. SNOWFALL OF 5 TO
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE CATSKILLS
WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LESS THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE
SYRACUSE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WWD AND MODEL QPFS. MODELS ALL
INDICATE THAT CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
STORM WILL NOT CLOSE OFF AT 700 MB UNTIL IT IS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS LINGERING WRAP ARND ACCUMULATIONS THAT WE
OFTEN SEE IN C NY/NRN PA. BASICALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL RUN INTO UPPER
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MARITIMES BY THURSDAY AND SHEAR OUT. BUT IN THE
PROCESS SIGNIFICANT WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE IS RUNNING INTO
THE UPPER DIFFLUNCE OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
OVER SERN CANADA. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS
FROM NE PA TO DELWARE/SULLIVAN CO/S IN NY.

CROSS SECTIONS NORMAL TO THE THICKNESS ACROSS NE AND C NY SHOW A
CLASSIC SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING WED PM WITH LOW STATIC
STABILITY ABOVE OR EVEN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ALOFT. THIS IS A RECIPE
FOR MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS AND BELIEVE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
FORM SOMEWHERE IN OUR WARNING AREA. IN GRIDS HAVE MENTION OF
HEAVY SNOW IN THIS AREA. I ALSO AM CONCERNED THAT THIS BAND COULD
TRACK FARTHER WEST AS IS OFTEN THE CASE AND IMPACT OUR ADVY AREA. THE
12Z EURO NOW HAS MORE QPF FARTHER WEST TOO. FOR NOW HAVE A ROW OF
WINTER WX ADVY/S AS A BUFFER ZONE FROM TOWANDA TO BINGHAMTON TO
COOPERSTOWN AND NORWICH. THIS AREA COULD GET INTO SOME HEAVY SNOW.
IT DEPENDS ON WHERE THIS MESOSCALE BAND SETS UP. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR. OUR BRIEFINGS WILL MENTION THE CHANCE THAT SOME
HEAVIER SNOW COULD FALL FARTHER WEST.

FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER DOWN TO
SNOW SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE AS THE STORM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

MODERATE COASTAL STORM BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR WARNING SNOW IN
THE ERN AND SERN COUNTIES WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN PIKE IN PA, AND
SULLIVAN AND DELAWARE IN NY. DECREASING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NW.
ATTM PROBABLY OUTCOME IS WARNING FAR E AND SE. ADVISORY CENTRAL
AND NOTHING W AND N, PROBABLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN MOST OF FINGER
LAKES. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDS. TIMING, SNOWFALL, AND
WATCH ALL ABOUT THE SAME. WINTER STORM WATCH FOR 5 COUNTIES IN PA
AND 3 COUNTIES IN NY.

GIVEN THE SNOW STARTS AROUND 7 AM WED IN THE FAR SOUTH HOLDING OFF
ON ISSUING A WARNING YET. MODELS HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF QPF. FOR
EXAMPLE AT AVP GFS ON THIRD WHILE NAM ONE INCH. EURO AND SREF IN
BETWEEN. NAM ALSO FASTER FOR ONSET. CONTINUING WITH VERY SIMILAR
QPF AND SNOWFALL AS BEFORE WHICH FOLLOWS MORE OF A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH.

DURING THE DAY WED SNOW ADVANCES NORTH TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY DARK.
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES QUICKLY UP NE TO BE EAST OF NJ AND SOUTH OF
CAPE COD 00Z THU. BEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WED
AFTN AND EARLY EVE. SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE WED NIGHT.

LATE WED NGT THE LL FLOW COMES AROUND TO THE NW BUT NOT COLD
ENOUGH YET. THU IT DOES GET COLD ENOUGH WITH A MULTI LAKE
CONNECTION. THU NGT CONTINUED CAA WITH AN UL SHORT WAVE GOING
THROUGH. CONTINUED LES MOSTLY IN NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE WINTER STORM IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TODAY.
AHEAD OF THE STORM EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND VFR SKIES. THIS
STORM WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY/TONIGHT PLACING
THE REGION IN THE NW CORNER OF THE SFC LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW OVER KAVP AND KBGM. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT KAVP WILL SEE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LOW END IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. KBGM MAY SEE THESE CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS GREAT AT KBGM DUE TO THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION WHERE HEAVY SNOW BANDS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER WEST. ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION AND EXPECT VISBYS TO
FALL TO IFR AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-055-056.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 251936
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
236 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WILL IMPACT ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND A LARGE PART
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IS EXPECTED FROM THE POCONOS TO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND TAPER OFF TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. SNOWFALL OF 5 TO
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE CATSKILLS
WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LESS THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE
SYRACUSE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WWD AND MODEL QPFS. MODELS ALL
INDICATE THAT CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
STORM WILL NOT CLOSE OFF AT 700 MB UNTIL IT IS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS LINGERING WRAP ARND ACCUMULATIONS THAT WE
OFTEN SEE IN C NY/NRN PA. BASICALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL RUN INTO UPPER
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MARITIMES BY THURSDAY AND SHEAR OUT. BUT IN THE
PROCESS SIGNIFICANT WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE IS RUNNING INTO
THE UPPER DIFFLUNCE OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
OVER SERN CANADA. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS
FROM NE PA TO DELWARE/SULLIVAN CO/S IN NY.

CROSS SECTIONS NORMAL TO THE THICKNESS ACROSS NE AND C NY SHOW A
CLASSIC SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING WED PM WITH LOW STATIC
STABILITY ABOVE OR EVEN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ALOFT. THIS IS A RECIPE
FOR MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS AND BELIEVE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
FORM SOMEWHERE IN OUR WARNING AREA. IN GRIDS HAVE MENTION OF
HEAVY SNOW IN THIS AREA. I ALSO AM CONCERNED THAT THIS BAND COULD
TRACK FARTHER WEST AS IS OFTEN THE CASE AND IMPACT OUR ADVY AREA. THE
12Z EURO NOW HAS MORE QPF FARTHER WEST TOO. FOR NOW HAVE A ROW OF
WINTER WX ADVY/S AS A BUFFER ZONE FROM TOWANDA TO BINGHAMTON TO
COOPERSTOWN AND NORWICH. THIS AREA COULD GET INTO SOME HEAVY SNOW.
IT DEPENDS ON WHERE THIS MESOSCALE BAND SETS UP. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR. OUR BRIEFINGS WILL MENTION THE CHANCE THAT SOME
HEAVIER SNOW COULD FALL FARTHER WEST.

FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER DOWN TO
SNOW SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE AS THE STORM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

MODERATE COASTAL STORM BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR WARNING SNOW IN
THE ERN AND SERN COUNTIES WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN PIKE IN PA, AND
SULLIVAN AND DELAWARE IN NY. DECREASING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NW.
ATTM PROBABLY OUTCOME IS WARNING FAR E AND SE. ADVISORY CENTRAL
AND NOTHING W AND N, PROBABLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN MOST OF FINGER
LAKES. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDS. TIMING, SNOWFALL, AND
WATCH ALL ABOUT THE SAME. WINTER STORM WATCH FOR 5 COUNTIES IN PA
AND 3 COUNTIES IN NY.

GIVEN THE SNOW STARTS AROUND 7 AM WED IN THE FAR SOUTH HOLDING OFF
ON ISSUING A WARNING YET. MODELS HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF QPF. FOR
EXAMPLE AT AVP GFS ON THIRD WHILE NAM ONE INCH. EURO AND SREF IN
BETWEEN. NAM ALSO FASTER FOR ONSET. CONTINUING WITH VERY SIMILAR
QPF AND SNOWFALL AS BEFORE WHICH FOLLOWS MORE OF A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH.

DURING THE DAY WED SNOW ADVANCES NORTH TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY DARK.
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES QUICKLY UP NE TO BE EAST OF NJ AND SOUTH OF
CAPE COD 00Z THU. BEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WED
AFTN AND EARLY EVE. SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE WED NIGHT.

LATE WED NGT THE LL FLOW COMES AROUND TO THE NW BUT NOT COLD
ENOUGH YET. THU IT DOES GET COLD ENOUGH WITH A MULTI LAKE
CONNECTION. THU NGT CONTINUED CAA WITH AN UL SHORT WAVE GOING
THROUGH. CONTINUED LES MOSTLY IN NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE WINTER STORM IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TODAY.
AHEAD OF THE STORM EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND VFR SKIES. THIS
STORM WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY/TONIGHT PLACING
THE REGION IN THE NW CORNER OF THE SFC LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW OVER KAVP AND KBGM. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT KAVP WILL SEE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LOW END IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. KBGM MAY SEE THESE CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS GREAT AT KBGM DUE TO THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION WHERE HEAVY SNOW BANDS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER WEST. ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION AND EXPECT VISBYS TO
FALL TO IFR AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-055-056.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...KAH







000
FXUS61 KBGM 251757
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1257 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW,
ESPECIALLY THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE SOME CIRRUS ACROSS NE PA TO EC NY AS THE
MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE EVOLVING EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM IS NOW
RIDING UP INTO THE NE UNITED STATES AT HIGH LEVELS. THE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN SWRLY FOR THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
MEAN LESS CLOUDS FOR NC NY AND WC NY E OF STEUBEN AND YATES
COUNTIES. HENCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL COVER
ALL OF FORECAST AREA.

INITIAL THOUGHTS ON EVOLVING COASTAL STORM ARE THAT WE LIKELY WILL
BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WARNING FROM WYOMING CO PA NE TO
DELAWARE COUNTY IN NY AND ALL COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WE
WOULD THEN HAVE AT LEAST ONE...POSSIBLY TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES
FARTHER N AND W IN A WINTER WX ADVY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-10
INCHES IN WARNING AREAS... AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN ADVY AREAS. THIS IS
TENTATIVE AND WE FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO WAIT FOR THE 12Z GUIDC
BEFORE MAKING FINAL DECISIONS.

ONE CONCERN THAT WE HAVE IS THAT THIS STORM IS MOVING INTO A
CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS
POSITIONED FROM ABT LAKE ERIE TO SRN QUEBEC DURING THE HEIGHT OF
THE STORM. THESE FLOW PATTERNS OFTEN LEAD TO THE HEAVIER PRECIP BEING
PUSHED FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST AND
UNFORTUNATELY BANDED PRECIP. WE ARE CONCERNING THAT HEAVY SNOW CUD FALL
FARTHER W FROM ABT TOWANDA PA TO UTICA NY OR SO. THE NEW 12Z NAM
IS ALSO QUICKER AND BRINGING IN THE SNOW BEFORE 12Z. THE ONSET
TIMING ALSO IS CRITICAL FOR TRAVEL AND MORNING COMMUTERS SO WE
NEED TO TIGHTEN THIS UP TOO WITH THE NEW GUIDC. OUR EXPERIENCE IS
THAT THE PRECIPITATION OFTEN COMES IN MUCH QUICKER THAN THE MODELS
SO THE NAM COULD BE ON TO SOMETHING. MORE ON THIS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WE WOULD LIKE TO HAVE ALL HEADLINES OUT BY 2 PM IF
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

MODERATE COASTAL STORM BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR WARNING SNOW IN
THE ERN AND SERN COUNTIES WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN PIKE IN PA, AND
SULLIVAN AND DELAWARE IN NY. DECREASING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NW.
ATTM PROBABLY OUTCOME IS WARNING FAR E AND SE. ADVISORY CENTRAL
AND NOTHING W AND N, PROBABLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN MOST OF FINGER
LAKES. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDS. TIMING, SNOWFALL, AND
WATCH ALL ABOUT THE SAME. WINTER STORM WATCH FOR 5 COUNTIES IN PA
AND 3 COUNTIES IN NY.

GIVEN THE SNOW STARTS AROUND 7 AM WED IN THE FAR SOUTH HOLDING OFF
ON ISSUING A WARNING YET. MODELS HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF QPF. FOR
EXAMPLE AT AVP GFS ON THIRD WHILE NAM ONE INCH. EURO AND SREF IN
BETWEEN. NAM ALSO FASTER FOR ONSET. CONTINUING WITH VERY SIMILAR
QPF AND SNOWFALL AS BEFORE WHICH FOLLOWS MORE OF A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH.

DURING THE DAY WED SNOW ADVANCES NORTH TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY DARK.
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES QUICKLY UP NE TO BE EAST OF NJ AND SOUTH OF
CAPE COD 00Z THU. BEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WED
AFTN AND EARLY EVE. SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE WED NIGHT.

LATE WED NGT THE LL FLOW COMES AROUND TO THE NW BUT NOT COLD
ENOUGH YET. THU IT DOES GET COLD ENOUGH WITH A MULTI LAKE
CONNECTION. THU NGT CONTINUED CAA WITH AN UL SHORT WAVE GOING
THROUGH. CONTINUED LES MOSTLY IN NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE WINTER STORM IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TODAY.
AHEAD OF THE STORM EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND VFR SKIES. THIS
STORM WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY/TONIGHT PLACING
THE REGION IN THE NW CORNER OF THE SFC LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW OVER KAVP AND KBGM. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT KAVP WILL SEE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LOW END IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. KBGM MAY SEE THESE CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS GREAT AT KBGM DUE TO THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION WHERE HEAVY SNOW BANDS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER WEST. ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION AND EXPECT VISBYS TO
FALL TO IFR AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/TAC
NEAR TERM...DJN/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...KAH










000
FXUS61 KBGM 251757
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1257 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW,
ESPECIALLY THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE SOME CIRRUS ACROSS NE PA TO EC NY AS THE
MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE EVOLVING EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM IS NOW
RIDING UP INTO THE NE UNITED STATES AT HIGH LEVELS. THE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN SWRLY FOR THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
MEAN LESS CLOUDS FOR NC NY AND WC NY E OF STEUBEN AND YATES
COUNTIES. HENCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL COVER
ALL OF FORECAST AREA.

INITIAL THOUGHTS ON EVOLVING COASTAL STORM ARE THAT WE LIKELY WILL
BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WARNING FROM WYOMING CO PA NE TO
DELAWARE COUNTY IN NY AND ALL COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WE
WOULD THEN HAVE AT LEAST ONE...POSSIBLY TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES
FARTHER N AND W IN A WINTER WX ADVY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-10
INCHES IN WARNING AREAS... AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN ADVY AREAS. THIS IS
TENTATIVE AND WE FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO WAIT FOR THE 12Z GUIDC
BEFORE MAKING FINAL DECISIONS.

ONE CONCERN THAT WE HAVE IS THAT THIS STORM IS MOVING INTO A
CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS
POSITIONED FROM ABT LAKE ERIE TO SRN QUEBEC DURING THE HEIGHT OF
THE STORM. THESE FLOW PATTERNS OFTEN LEAD TO THE HEAVIER PRECIP BEING
PUSHED FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST AND
UNFORTUNATELY BANDED PRECIP. WE ARE CONCERNING THAT HEAVY SNOW CUD FALL
FARTHER W FROM ABT TOWANDA PA TO UTICA NY OR SO. THE NEW 12Z NAM
IS ALSO QUICKER AND BRINGING IN THE SNOW BEFORE 12Z. THE ONSET
TIMING ALSO IS CRITICAL FOR TRAVEL AND MORNING COMMUTERS SO WE
NEED TO TIGHTEN THIS UP TOO WITH THE NEW GUIDC. OUR EXPERIENCE IS
THAT THE PRECIPITATION OFTEN COMES IN MUCH QUICKER THAN THE MODELS
SO THE NAM COULD BE ON TO SOMETHING. MORE ON THIS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WE WOULD LIKE TO HAVE ALL HEADLINES OUT BY 2 PM IF
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

MODERATE COASTAL STORM BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR WARNING SNOW IN
THE ERN AND SERN COUNTIES WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN PIKE IN PA, AND
SULLIVAN AND DELAWARE IN NY. DECREASING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NW.
ATTM PROBABLY OUTCOME IS WARNING FAR E AND SE. ADVISORY CENTRAL
AND NOTHING W AND N, PROBABLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN MOST OF FINGER
LAKES. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDS. TIMING, SNOWFALL, AND
WATCH ALL ABOUT THE SAME. WINTER STORM WATCH FOR 5 COUNTIES IN PA
AND 3 COUNTIES IN NY.

GIVEN THE SNOW STARTS AROUND 7 AM WED IN THE FAR SOUTH HOLDING OFF
ON ISSUING A WARNING YET. MODELS HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF QPF. FOR
EXAMPLE AT AVP GFS ON THIRD WHILE NAM ONE INCH. EURO AND SREF IN
BETWEEN. NAM ALSO FASTER FOR ONSET. CONTINUING WITH VERY SIMILAR
QPF AND SNOWFALL AS BEFORE WHICH FOLLOWS MORE OF A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH.

DURING THE DAY WED SNOW ADVANCES NORTH TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY DARK.
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES QUICKLY UP NE TO BE EAST OF NJ AND SOUTH OF
CAPE COD 00Z THU. BEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WED
AFTN AND EARLY EVE. SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE WED NIGHT.

LATE WED NGT THE LL FLOW COMES AROUND TO THE NW BUT NOT COLD
ENOUGH YET. THU IT DOES GET COLD ENOUGH WITH A MULTI LAKE
CONNECTION. THU NGT CONTINUED CAA WITH AN UL SHORT WAVE GOING
THROUGH. CONTINUED LES MOSTLY IN NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE WINTER STORM IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TODAY.
AHEAD OF THE STORM EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND VFR SKIES. THIS
STORM WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY/TONIGHT PLACING
THE REGION IN THE NW CORNER OF THE SFC LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW OVER KAVP AND KBGM. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT KAVP WILL SEE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LOW END IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. KBGM MAY SEE THESE CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS GREAT AT KBGM DUE TO THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION WHERE HEAVY SNOW BANDS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER WEST. ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION AND EXPECT VISBYS TO
FALL TO IFR AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/TAC
NEAR TERM...DJN/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...KAH









000
FXUS61 KBGM 251455
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
955 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW,
ESPECIALLY THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE SOME CIRRUS ACROSS NE PA TO EC NY AS THE
MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE EVOLVING EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM IS NOW
RIDING UP INTO THE NE UNITED STATES AT HIGH LEVELS. THE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN SWRLY FOR THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
MEAN LESS CLOUDS FOR NC NY AND WC NY E OF STEUBEN AND YATES
COUNTIES. HENCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL COVER
ALL OF FORECAST AREA.

INITIAL THOUGHTS ON EVOLVING COASTAL STORM ARE THAT WE LIKELY WILL
BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WARNING FROM WYOMING CO PA NE TO
DELAWARE COUNTY IN NY AND ALL COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WE
WOULD THEN HAVE AT LEAST ONE...POSSIBLY TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES
FARTHER N AND W IN A WINTER WX ADVY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-10
INCHES IN WARNING AREAS... AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN ADVY AREAS. THIS IS
TENTATIVE AND WE FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO WAIT FOR THE 12Z GUIDC
BEFORE MAKING FINAL DECISIONS.

ONE CONCERN THAT WE HAVE IS THAT THIS STORM IS MOVING INTO A
CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS
POSITIONED FROM ABT LAKE ERIE TO SRN QUEBEC DURING THE HEIGHT OF
THE STORM. THESE FLOW PATTERNS OFTEN LEAD TO THE HEAVIER PRECIP BEING
PUSHED FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST AND
UNFORTUNATELY BANDED PRECIP. WE ARE CONCERNING THAT HEAVY SNOW CUD FALL
FARTHER W FROM ABT TOWANDA PA TO UTICA NY OR SO. THE NEW 12Z NAM
IS ALSO QUICKER AND BRINGING IN THE SNOW BEFORE 12Z. THE ONSET
TIMING ALSO IS CRITICAL FOR TRAVEL AND MORNING COMMUTERS SO WE
NEED TO TIGHTEN THIS UP TOO WITH THE NEW GUIDC. OUR EXPERIENCE IS
THAT THE PRECIPITATION OFTEN COMES IN MUCH QUICKER THAN THE MODELS
SO THE NAM COULD BE ON TO SOMETHING. MORE ON THIS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WE WOULD LIKE TO HAVE ALL HEADLINES OUT BY 2 PM IF
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

MODERATE COASTAL STORM BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR WARNING SNOW IN
THE ERN AND SERN COUNTIES WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN PIKE IN PA, AND
SULLIVAN AND DELAWARE IN NY. DECREASING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NW.
ATTM PROBABLY OUTCOME IS WARNING FAR E AND SE. ADVISORY CENTRAL
AND NOTHING W AND N, PROBABLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN MOST OF FINGER
LAKES. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDS. TIMING, SNOWFALL, AND
WATCH ALL ABOUT THE SAME. WINTER STORM WATCH FOR 5 COUNTIES IN PA
AND 3 COUNTIES IN NY.

GIVEN THE SNOW STARTS AROUND 7 AM WED IN THE FAR SOUTH HOLDING OFF
ON ISSUING A WARNING YET. MODELS HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF QPF. FOR
EXAMPLE AT AVP GFS ON THIRD WHILE NAM ONE INCH. EURO AND SREF IN
BETWEEN. NAM ALSO FASTER FOR ONSET. CONTINUING WITH VERY SIMILAR
QPF AND SNOWFALL AS BEFORE WHICH FOLLOWS MORE OF A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH.

DURING THE DAY WED SNOW ADVANCES NORTH TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY DARK.
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES QUICKLY UP NE TO BE EAST OF NJ AND SOUTH OF
CAPE COD 00Z THU. BEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WED
AFTN AND EARLY EVE. SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE WED NIGHT.

LATE WED NGT THE LL FLOW COMES AROUND TO THE NW BUT NOT COLD
ENOUGH YET. THU IT DOES GET COLD ENOUGH WITH A MULTI LAKE
CONNECTION. THU NGT CONTINUED CAA WITH AN UL SHORT WAVE GOING
THROUGH. CONTINUED LES MOSTLY IN NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WLY FLOW OF DRY AIR OF THE REGION THIS MRNG WILL KEEP VFR CONDS
THRU THE DAY AND INTO MUCH OF THE NGT. WLY GRADIENT BHD YSTRDY/S
FNT WILL KEEP GUSTY WLY WINDS...ESP DURING THE MRNG AND EARLY AFTN
BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. TNGT...LOW MVG UP THE EAST CST WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH SNOW INTO THE AREA BRINGING MVFR OR PSBL IFR CONDS
TO AVP AND BGM BEFORE 12Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS
FROM SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/TAC
NEAR TERM...DJN/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 251455
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
955 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW,
ESPECIALLY THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE SOME CIRRUS ACROSS NE PA TO EC NY AS THE
MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE EVOLVING EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM IS NOW
RIDING UP INTO THE NE UNITED STATES AT HIGH LEVELS. THE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN SWRLY FOR THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
MEAN LESS CLOUDS FOR NC NY AND WC NY E OF STEUBEN AND YATES
COUNTIES. HENCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL COVER
ALL OF FORECAST AREA.

INITIAL THOUGHTS ON EVOLVING COASTAL STORM ARE THAT WE LIKELY WILL
BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WARNING FROM WYOMING CO PA NE TO
DELAWARE COUNTY IN NY AND ALL COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WE
WOULD THEN HAVE AT LEAST ONE...POSSIBLY TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES
FARTHER N AND W IN A WINTER WX ADVY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-10
INCHES IN WARNING AREAS... AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN ADVY AREAS. THIS IS
TENTATIVE AND WE FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO WAIT FOR THE 12Z GUIDC
BEFORE MAKING FINAL DECISIONS.

ONE CONCERN THAT WE HAVE IS THAT THIS STORM IS MOVING INTO A
CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS
POSITIONED FROM ABT LAKE ERIE TO SRN QUEBEC DURING THE HEIGHT OF
THE STORM. THESE FLOW PATTERNS OFTEN LEAD TO THE HEAVIER PRECIP BEING
PUSHED FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST AND
UNFORTUNATELY BANDED PRECIP. WE ARE CONCERNING THAT HEAVY SNOW CUD FALL
FARTHER W FROM ABT TOWANDA PA TO UTICA NY OR SO. THE NEW 12Z NAM
IS ALSO QUICKER AND BRINGING IN THE SNOW BEFORE 12Z. THE ONSET
TIMING ALSO IS CRITICAL FOR TRAVEL AND MORNING COMMUTERS SO WE
NEED TO TIGHTEN THIS UP TOO WITH THE NEW GUIDC. OUR EXPERIENCE IS
THAT THE PRECIPITATION OFTEN COMES IN MUCH QUICKER THAN THE MODELS
SO THE NAM COULD BE ON TO SOMETHING. MORE ON THIS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WE WOULD LIKE TO HAVE ALL HEADLINES OUT BY 2 PM IF
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

MODERATE COASTAL STORM BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR WARNING SNOW IN
THE ERN AND SERN COUNTIES WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN PIKE IN PA, AND
SULLIVAN AND DELAWARE IN NY. DECREASING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NW.
ATTM PROBABLY OUTCOME IS WARNING FAR E AND SE. ADVISORY CENTRAL
AND NOTHING W AND N, PROBABLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN MOST OF FINGER
LAKES. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDS. TIMING, SNOWFALL, AND
WATCH ALL ABOUT THE SAME. WINTER STORM WATCH FOR 5 COUNTIES IN PA
AND 3 COUNTIES IN NY.

GIVEN THE SNOW STARTS AROUND 7 AM WED IN THE FAR SOUTH HOLDING OFF
ON ISSUING A WARNING YET. MODELS HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF QPF. FOR
EXAMPLE AT AVP GFS ON THIRD WHILE NAM ONE INCH. EURO AND SREF IN
BETWEEN. NAM ALSO FASTER FOR ONSET. CONTINUING WITH VERY SIMILAR
QPF AND SNOWFALL AS BEFORE WHICH FOLLOWS MORE OF A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH.

DURING THE DAY WED SNOW ADVANCES NORTH TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY DARK.
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES QUICKLY UP NE TO BE EAST OF NJ AND SOUTH OF
CAPE COD 00Z THU. BEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WED
AFTN AND EARLY EVE. SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE WED NIGHT.

LATE WED NGT THE LL FLOW COMES AROUND TO THE NW BUT NOT COLD
ENOUGH YET. THU IT DOES GET COLD ENOUGH WITH A MULTI LAKE
CONNECTION. THU NGT CONTINUED CAA WITH AN UL SHORT WAVE GOING
THROUGH. CONTINUED LES MOSTLY IN NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WLY FLOW OF DRY AIR OF THE REGION THIS MRNG WILL KEEP VFR CONDS
THRU THE DAY AND INTO MUCH OF THE NGT. WLY GRADIENT BHD YSTRDY/S
FNT WILL KEEP GUSTY WLY WINDS...ESP DURING THE MRNG AND EARLY AFTN
BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. TNGT...LOW MVG UP THE EAST CST WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH SNOW INTO THE AREA BRINGING MVFR OR PSBL IFR CONDS
TO AVP AND BGM BEFORE 12Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS
FROM SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/TAC
NEAR TERM...DJN/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 251137
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
637 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY AND TONIGHT, DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW,
ESPECIALLY THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
3 AM UPDATE...

QUIET WEATHER TODAY. WEAK CAA BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT THAT PASSED
MONDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SW AND AIR IS NOT COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. PVA THIS AFTN WITH THE LL FLOW SHIFTING
TO WEST COULD CREATE SOME WEAK MIXED SHOWERS IN NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.

FOLLOWED GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS. NOT RECORD BREAKING DAILY HIGHS
BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WIND IS DIMINISHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

MODERATE COASTAL STORM BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR WARNING SNOW IN
THE ERN AND SERN COUNTIES WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN PIKE IN PA, AND
SULLIVAN AND DELAWARE IN NY. DECREASING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NW.
ATTM PROBABLY OUTCOME IS WARNING FAR E AND SE. ADVISORY CENTRAL
AND NOTHING W AND N, PROBABLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN MOST OF FINGER
LAKES. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDS. TIMING, SNOWFALL, AND
WATCH ALL ABOUT THE SAME. WINTER STORM WATCH FOR 5 COUNTIES IN PA
AND 3 COUNTIES IN NY.

GIVEN THE SNOW STARTS AROUND 7 AM WED IN THE FAR SOUTH HOLDING OFF
ON ISSUING A WARNING YET. MODELS HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF QPF. FOR
EXAMPLE AT AVP GFS ON THIRD WHILE NAM ONE INCH. EURO AND SREF IN
BETWEEN. NAM ALSO FASTER FOR ONSET. CONTINUING WITH VERY SIMILAR
QPF AND SNOWFALL AS BEFORE WHICH FOLLOWS MORE OF A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH.

DURING THE DAY WED SNOW ADVANCES NORTH TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY DARK.
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES QUICKLY UP NE TO BE EAST OF NJ AND SOUTH OF
CAPE COD 00Z THU. BEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WED
AFTN AND EARLY EVE. SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE WED NIGHT.

LATE WED NGT THE LL FLOW COMES AROUND TO THE NW BUT NOT COLD
ENOUGH YET. THU IT DOES GET COLD ENOUGH WITH A MULTI LAKE
CONNECTION. THU NGT CONTINUED CAA WITH AN UL SHORT WAVE GOING
THROUGH. CONTINUED LES MOSTLY IN NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WLY FLOW OF DRY AIR OF THE REGION THIS MRNG WILL KEEP VFR CONDS
THRU THE DAY AND INTO MUCH OF THE NGT. WLY GRADIENT BHD YSTRDY/S
FNT WILL KEEP GUSTY WLY WINDS...ESP DURING THE MRNG AND EARLY AFTN
BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. TNGT...LOW MVG UP THE EAST CST WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH SNOW INTO THE AREA BRINGING MVFR OR PSBL IFR CONDS
TO AVP AND BGM BEFORE 12Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS
FROM SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 251137
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
637 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY AND TONIGHT, DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW,
ESPECIALLY THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
3 AM UPDATE...

QUIET WEATHER TODAY. WEAK CAA BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT THAT PASSED
MONDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SW AND AIR IS NOT COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. PVA THIS AFTN WITH THE LL FLOW SHIFTING
TO WEST COULD CREATE SOME WEAK MIXED SHOWERS IN NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.

FOLLOWED GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS. NOT RECORD BREAKING DAILY HIGHS
BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WIND IS DIMINISHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

MODERATE COASTAL STORM BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR WARNING SNOW IN
THE ERN AND SERN COUNTIES WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN PIKE IN PA, AND
SULLIVAN AND DELAWARE IN NY. DECREASING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NW.
ATTM PROBABLY OUTCOME IS WARNING FAR E AND SE. ADVISORY CENTRAL
AND NOTHING W AND N, PROBABLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN MOST OF FINGER
LAKES. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDS. TIMING, SNOWFALL, AND
WATCH ALL ABOUT THE SAME. WINTER STORM WATCH FOR 5 COUNTIES IN PA
AND 3 COUNTIES IN NY.

GIVEN THE SNOW STARTS AROUND 7 AM WED IN THE FAR SOUTH HOLDING OFF
ON ISSUING A WARNING YET. MODELS HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF QPF. FOR
EXAMPLE AT AVP GFS ON THIRD WHILE NAM ONE INCH. EURO AND SREF IN
BETWEEN. NAM ALSO FASTER FOR ONSET. CONTINUING WITH VERY SIMILAR
QPF AND SNOWFALL AS BEFORE WHICH FOLLOWS MORE OF A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH.

DURING THE DAY WED SNOW ADVANCES NORTH TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY DARK.
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES QUICKLY UP NE TO BE EAST OF NJ AND SOUTH OF
CAPE COD 00Z THU. BEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WED
AFTN AND EARLY EVE. SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE WED NIGHT.

LATE WED NGT THE LL FLOW COMES AROUND TO THE NW BUT NOT COLD
ENOUGH YET. THU IT DOES GET COLD ENOUGH WITH A MULTI LAKE
CONNECTION. THU NGT CONTINUED CAA WITH AN UL SHORT WAVE GOING
THROUGH. CONTINUED LES MOSTLY IN NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WLY FLOW OF DRY AIR OF THE REGION THIS MRNG WILL KEEP VFR CONDS
THRU THE DAY AND INTO MUCH OF THE NGT. WLY GRADIENT BHD YSTRDY/S
FNT WILL KEEP GUSTY WLY WINDS...ESP DURING THE MRNG AND EARLY AFTN
BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. TNGT...LOW MVG UP THE EAST CST WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH SNOW INTO THE AREA BRINGING MVFR OR PSBL IFR CONDS
TO AVP AND BGM BEFORE 12Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS
FROM SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 250940
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
440 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY AND TONIGHT, DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW,
ESPECIALLY THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
3 AM UPDATE...

QUIET WEATHER TODAY. WEAK CAA BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT THAT PASSED
MONDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SW AND AIR IS NOT COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. PVA THIS AFTN WITH THE LL FLOW SHIFTING
TO WEST COULD CREATE SOME WEAK MIXED SHOWERS IN NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.

FOLLOWED GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS. NOT RECORD BREAKING DAILY HIGHS
BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WIND IS DIMINISHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

MODERATE COASTAL STORM BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR WARNING SNOW IN
THE ERN AND SERN COUNTIES WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN PIKE IN PA, AND
SULLIVAN AND DELAWARE IN NY. DECREASING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NW.
ATTM PROBABLY OUTCOME IS WARNING FAR E AND SE. ADVISORY CENTRAL
AND NOTHING W AND N, PROBABLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN MOST OF FINGER
LAKES. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDS. TIMING, SNOWFALL, AND
WATCH ALL ABOUT THE SAME. WINTER STORM WATCH FOR 5 COUNTIES IN PA
AND 3 COUNTIES IN NY.

GIVEN THE SNOW STARTS AROUND 7 AM WED IN THE FAR SOUTH HOLDING OFF
ON ISSUING A WARNING YET. MODELS HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF QPF. FOR
EXAMPLE AT AVP GFS ON THIRD WHILE NAM ONE INCH. EURO AND SREF IN
BETWEEN. NAM ALSO FASTER FOR ONSET. CONTINUING WITH VERY SIMILAR
QPF AND SNOWFALL AS BEFORE WHICH FOLLOWS MORE OF A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH.

DURING THE DAY WED SNOW ADVANCES NORTH TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY DARK.
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES QUICKLY UP NE TO BE EAST OF NJ AND SOUTH OF
CAPE COD 00Z THU. BEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WED
AFTN AND EARLY EVE. SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE WED NIGHT.

LATE WED NGT THE LL FLOW COMES AROUND TO THE NW BUT NOT COLD
ENOUGH YET. THU IT DOES GET COLD ENOUGH WITH A MULTI LAKE
CONNECTION. THU NGT CONTINUED CAA WITH AN UL SHORT WAVE GOING
THROUGH. CONTINUED LES MOSTLY IN NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THRU THE PD. DRY COLD FNT PASSED THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND IS FLWD BY MORE DRY AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNLIMITED CIGS AND
VSBY THRU THE TAF PD. WV APRCHG FROM THE SOUTH MAY SPREAD SOME HI
CLDS INTO THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PD...BUT ANY PCPN SHD BE
WELL BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF FCST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM/HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 250940
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
440 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY AND TONIGHT, DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW,
ESPECIALLY THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
3 AM UPDATE...

QUIET WEATHER TODAY. WEAK CAA BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT THAT PASSED
MONDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SW AND AIR IS NOT COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. PVA THIS AFTN WITH THE LL FLOW SHIFTING
TO WEST COULD CREATE SOME WEAK MIXED SHOWERS IN NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.

FOLLOWED GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS. NOT RECORD BREAKING DAILY HIGHS
BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WIND IS DIMINISHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

MODERATE COASTAL STORM BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR WARNING SNOW IN
THE ERN AND SERN COUNTIES WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN PIKE IN PA, AND
SULLIVAN AND DELAWARE IN NY. DECREASING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NW.
ATTM PROBABLY OUTCOME IS WARNING FAR E AND SE. ADVISORY CENTRAL
AND NOTHING W AND N, PROBABLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN MOST OF FINGER
LAKES. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDS. TIMING, SNOWFALL, AND
WATCH ALL ABOUT THE SAME. WINTER STORM WATCH FOR 5 COUNTIES IN PA
AND 3 COUNTIES IN NY.

GIVEN THE SNOW STARTS AROUND 7 AM WED IN THE FAR SOUTH HOLDING OFF
ON ISSUING A WARNING YET. MODELS HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF QPF. FOR
EXAMPLE AT AVP GFS ON THIRD WHILE NAM ONE INCH. EURO AND SREF IN
BETWEEN. NAM ALSO FASTER FOR ONSET. CONTINUING WITH VERY SIMILAR
QPF AND SNOWFALL AS BEFORE WHICH FOLLOWS MORE OF A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH.

DURING THE DAY WED SNOW ADVANCES NORTH TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY DARK.
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES QUICKLY UP NE TO BE EAST OF NJ AND SOUTH OF
CAPE COD 00Z THU. BEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WED
AFTN AND EARLY EVE. SNOW ENDS FROM SW TO NE WED NIGHT.

LATE WED NGT THE LL FLOW COMES AROUND TO THE NW BUT NOT COLD
ENOUGH YET. THU IT DOES GET COLD ENOUGH WITH A MULTI LAKE
CONNECTION. THU NGT CONTINUED CAA WITH AN UL SHORT WAVE GOING
THROUGH. CONTINUED LES MOSTLY IN NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THRU THE PD. DRY COLD FNT PASSED THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND IS FLWD BY MORE DRY AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNLIMITED CIGS AND
VSBY THRU THE TAF PD. WV APRCHG FROM THE SOUTH MAY SPREAD SOME HI
CLDS INTO THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PD...BUT ANY PCPN SHD BE
WELL BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF FCST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM/HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 250541
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1241 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...
00Z RAOB FROM KBUF SHOWING 50KTS JUST OFF THE DECK ALONG WITH
REGIONAL VAD WINDS. THIS IS IN ASSOC WITH LLJ IN ADVANCE OF "COLD"
FRONT NOW CROSSING THE AREA. JET CORE WL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA
OVRNGT AND ALLOW WINDS TO SLOWLY DIE OFF AS IT DOES SO. SFC BNDRY
IS ACRS THE FINGER LKS AND TREKKING EAST WITH TIME. EXPECT FROPA
TO OCCUR BY 06Z TONIGHT.

WHAT LITTLE PCPN THERE IS WL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS. WL ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 05Z
TONIGHT AS WINDS ACRS THE LK PLAIN ARE STILL GUSTING TO NR 40KTS.
FOLLOWING FROPA EXPECT SKIES TO CLR BFR CLDNG UP AGAIN TWD MRNG.

NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP TOO MUCH WITH WEAK CAA EXPECTED BHND
INITIAL FRONT AND PROJECTED MINS LOOK GOOD ARND 40F. NO OTHER CHGS
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

ALREADY EXPERIENCING GUSTY WINDS UP THE LAKE PLAIN AS A POTENT LLJ
RIDES UP LAKE ERIE TOWARD THE CENTRAL PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WILL KEEP ADVISORIES INTACT, AS IT APPEARS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE OVER MUCH OF UPSTATE NY. SUB-ADVISORY
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN PA.

TREND OF MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES BOTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A COLD AIR PUSH...NO
STRONG ADVECTION NOTED...AS COLD AIR SORTA BLEEDS IN SLOWLY.

WITH NO SNOWPACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA, THINK WE CAN MAKE ANOTHER
RUN AT THE MID AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
FROM LUZERNE INTO PIKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 315 PM... IN GENERAL THERE ARE NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST ON THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS INCLUDING SPEEDING UP
THE ONSET OF SNOW SLIGHTLY AND ADDING A FEW COUNTIES TO THE
WATCH... BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE.

HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE OTSEGO
COUNTY NY AND WEST TO INCLUDE LUZERNE... LACKAWANNA AND WYOMING
COUNTIES IN PA. GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHEAST PA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NY ON THE
BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
EVENT AS THE NAM MODEL IS AN OUTLIER WITH A COLDER AND FARTHER
EAST SOLUTION... WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN/SREF AND LATEST ECMWF ARE
IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST PA AND WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NY WITH AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW WESTWARD TO THE FINGER
LAKES. GEFS ENSEMBLE STILL SHOWING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A FEW
MEMBERS WELL EAST OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND A FEW ALSO FARTHER
WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT THROUGHOUT
OUR AREA. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AT THE ONSET OF THE STORM...
WHICH WILL REDUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT IN THE VALLEYS. THE
WATCH FOR 7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW FOR THE WILKES- BARRE AND
SCRANTON AREAS IS PRIMARILY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THOSE
AREAS... AS BUSY HIGHWAYS SUCH AS I-380 AND I-80 ABOVE 1500 FEET
WILL BE IMPACTED BY HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS POINT EXPECTING SNOWFALL
IN THE VALLEY CITIES OF WILKES- BARRE AND SCRANTON TO BE MORE LIKE
3 TO 5 INCHES... BUT OBVIOUSLY AT THIS TIME RANGE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY.


425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR THRU THE PD. DRY COLD FNT PASSED THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND IS FLWD BY MORE DRY AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNLIMITED CIGS AND
VSBY THRU THE TAF PD. WV APRCHG FROM THE SOUTH MAY SPREAD SOME HI
CLDS INTO THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PD...BUT ANY PCPN SHD BE
WELL BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF FCST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE/PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP/MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM/HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 250541
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1241 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...
00Z RAOB FROM KBUF SHOWING 50KTS JUST OFF THE DECK ALONG WITH
REGIONAL VAD WINDS. THIS IS IN ASSOC WITH LLJ IN ADVANCE OF "COLD"
FRONT NOW CROSSING THE AREA. JET CORE WL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA
OVRNGT AND ALLOW WINDS TO SLOWLY DIE OFF AS IT DOES SO. SFC BNDRY
IS ACRS THE FINGER LKS AND TREKKING EAST WITH TIME. EXPECT FROPA
TO OCCUR BY 06Z TONIGHT.

WHAT LITTLE PCPN THERE IS WL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS. WL ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 05Z
TONIGHT AS WINDS ACRS THE LK PLAIN ARE STILL GUSTING TO NR 40KTS.
FOLLOWING FROPA EXPECT SKIES TO CLR BFR CLDNG UP AGAIN TWD MRNG.

NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP TOO MUCH WITH WEAK CAA EXPECTED BHND
INITIAL FRONT AND PROJECTED MINS LOOK GOOD ARND 40F. NO OTHER CHGS
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

ALREADY EXPERIENCING GUSTY WINDS UP THE LAKE PLAIN AS A POTENT LLJ
RIDES UP LAKE ERIE TOWARD THE CENTRAL PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WILL KEEP ADVISORIES INTACT, AS IT APPEARS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE OVER MUCH OF UPSTATE NY. SUB-ADVISORY
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN PA.

TREND OF MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES BOTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A COLD AIR PUSH...NO
STRONG ADVECTION NOTED...AS COLD AIR SORTA BLEEDS IN SLOWLY.

WITH NO SNOWPACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA, THINK WE CAN MAKE ANOTHER
RUN AT THE MID AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
FROM LUZERNE INTO PIKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 315 PM... IN GENERAL THERE ARE NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST ON THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS INCLUDING SPEEDING UP
THE ONSET OF SNOW SLIGHTLY AND ADDING A FEW COUNTIES TO THE
WATCH... BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE.

HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE OTSEGO
COUNTY NY AND WEST TO INCLUDE LUZERNE... LACKAWANNA AND WYOMING
COUNTIES IN PA. GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHEAST PA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NY ON THE
BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
EVENT AS THE NAM MODEL IS AN OUTLIER WITH A COLDER AND FARTHER
EAST SOLUTION... WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN/SREF AND LATEST ECMWF ARE
IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST PA AND WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NY WITH AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW WESTWARD TO THE FINGER
LAKES. GEFS ENSEMBLE STILL SHOWING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A FEW
MEMBERS WELL EAST OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND A FEW ALSO FARTHER
WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT THROUGHOUT
OUR AREA. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AT THE ONSET OF THE STORM...
WHICH WILL REDUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT IN THE VALLEYS. THE
WATCH FOR 7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW FOR THE WILKES- BARRE AND
SCRANTON AREAS IS PRIMARILY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THOSE
AREAS... AS BUSY HIGHWAYS SUCH AS I-380 AND I-80 ABOVE 1500 FEET
WILL BE IMPACTED BY HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS POINT EXPECTING SNOWFALL
IN THE VALLEY CITIES OF WILKES- BARRE AND SCRANTON TO BE MORE LIKE
3 TO 5 INCHES... BUT OBVIOUSLY AT THIS TIME RANGE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY.


425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR THRU THE PD. DRY COLD FNT PASSED THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND IS FLWD BY MORE DRY AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNLIMITED CIGS AND
VSBY THRU THE TAF PD. WV APRCHG FROM THE SOUTH MAY SPREAD SOME HI
CLDS INTO THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PD...BUT ANY PCPN SHD BE
WELL BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF FCST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE/PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP/MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM/HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 250103
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
803 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...
00Z RAOB FROM KBUF SHOWING 50KTS JUST OFF THE DECK ALONG WITH
REGIONAL VAD WINDS. THIS IS IN ASSOC WITH LLJ IN ADVANCE OF "COLD"
FRONT NOW CROSSING THE AREA. JET CORE WL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA
OVRNGT AND ALLOW WINDS TO SLOWLY DIE OFF AS IT DOES SO. SFC BNDRY
IS ACRS THE FINGER LKS AND TREKKING EAST WITH TIME. EXPECT FROPA
TO OCCUR BY 06Z TONIGHT.

WHAT LITTLE PCPN THERE IS WL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS. WL ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 05Z
TONIGHT AS WINDS ACRS THE LK PLAIN ARE STILL GUSTING TO NR 40KTS.
FOLLOWING FROPA EXPECT SKIES TO CLR BFR CLDNG UP AGAIN TWD MRNG.

NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP TOO MUCH WITH WEAK CAA EXPECTED BHND
INITIAL FRONT AND PROJECTED MINS LOOK GOOD ARND 40F. NO OTHER CHGS
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

ALREADY EXPERIENCING GUSTY WINDS UP THE LAKE PLAIN AS A POTENT LLJ
RIDES UP LAKE ERIE TOWARD THE CENTRAL PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WILL KEEP ADVISORIES INTACT, AS IT APPEARS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE OVER MUCH OF UPSTATE NY. SUB-ADVISORY
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN PA.

TREND OF MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES BOTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A COLD AIR PUSH...NO
STRONG ADVECTION NOTED...AS COLD AIR SORTA BLEEDS IN SLOWLY.

WITH NO SNOWPACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA, THINK WE CAN MAKE ANOTHER
RUN AT THE MID AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
FROM LUZERNE INTO PIKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 315 PM... IN GENERAL THERE ARE NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST ON THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS INCLUDING SPEEDING UP
THE ONSET OF SNOW SLIGHTLY AND ADDING A FEW COUNTIES TO THE
WATCH... BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE.

HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE OTSEGO
COUNTY NY AND WEST TO INCLUDE LUZERNE... LACKAWANNA AND WYOMING
COUNTIES IN PA. GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHEAST PA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NY ON THE
BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
EVENT AS THE NAM MODEL IS AN OUTLIER WITH A COLDER AND FARTHER
EAST SOLUTION... WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN/SREF AND LATEST ECMWF ARE
IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST PA AND WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NY WITH AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW WESTWARD TO THE FINGER
LAKES. GEFS ENSEMBLE STILL SHOWING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A FEW
MEMBERS WELL EAST OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND A FEW ALSO FARTHER
WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT THROUGHOUT
OUR AREA. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AT THE ONSET OF THE STORM...
WHICH WILL REDUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT IN THE VALLEYS. THE
WATCH FOR 7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW FOR THE WILKES- BARRE AND
SCRANTON AREAS IS PRIMARILY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THOSE
AREAS... AS BUSY HIGHWAYS SUCH AS I-380 AND I-80 ABOVE 1500 FEET
WILL BE IMPACTED BY HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS POINT EXPECTING SNOWFALL
IN THE VALLEY CITIES OF WILKES- BARRE AND SCRANTON TO BE MORE LIKE
3 TO 5 INCHES... BUT OBVIOUSLY AT THIS TIME RANGE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY.


425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT KSYR AND KRME OTHERWISE THE MAIN
AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE WIND.

FREQUENT SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY UP THE LAKE PLAIN FROM ELM TO SYR. OUTSIDE THE
LAKE PLAIN WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON TUESDAY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE SUSTAINED, WITH
GUSTS OVER 20 KTS LIKELY.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE/PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP/MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 250103
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
803 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...
00Z RAOB FROM KBUF SHOWING 50KTS JUST OFF THE DECK ALONG WITH
REGIONAL VAD WINDS. THIS IS IN ASSOC WITH LLJ IN ADVANCE OF "COLD"
FRONT NOW CROSSING THE AREA. JET CORE WL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA
OVRNGT AND ALLOW WINDS TO SLOWLY DIE OFF AS IT DOES SO. SFC BNDRY
IS ACRS THE FINGER LKS AND TREKKING EAST WITH TIME. EXPECT FROPA
TO OCCUR BY 06Z TONIGHT.

WHAT LITTLE PCPN THERE IS WL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS. WL ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 05Z
TONIGHT AS WINDS ACRS THE LK PLAIN ARE STILL GUSTING TO NR 40KTS.
FOLLOWING FROPA EXPECT SKIES TO CLR BFR CLDNG UP AGAIN TWD MRNG.

NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP TOO MUCH WITH WEAK CAA EXPECTED BHND
INITIAL FRONT AND PROJECTED MINS LOOK GOOD ARND 40F. NO OTHER CHGS
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

ALREADY EXPERIENCING GUSTY WINDS UP THE LAKE PLAIN AS A POTENT LLJ
RIDES UP LAKE ERIE TOWARD THE CENTRAL PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WILL KEEP ADVISORIES INTACT, AS IT APPEARS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE OVER MUCH OF UPSTATE NY. SUB-ADVISORY
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN PA.

TREND OF MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES BOTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A COLD AIR PUSH...NO
STRONG ADVECTION NOTED...AS COLD AIR SORTA BLEEDS IN SLOWLY.

WITH NO SNOWPACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA, THINK WE CAN MAKE ANOTHER
RUN AT THE MID AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
FROM LUZERNE INTO PIKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 315 PM... IN GENERAL THERE ARE NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST ON THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS INCLUDING SPEEDING UP
THE ONSET OF SNOW SLIGHTLY AND ADDING A FEW COUNTIES TO THE
WATCH... BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE.

HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE OTSEGO
COUNTY NY AND WEST TO INCLUDE LUZERNE... LACKAWANNA AND WYOMING
COUNTIES IN PA. GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHEAST PA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NY ON THE
BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
EVENT AS THE NAM MODEL IS AN OUTLIER WITH A COLDER AND FARTHER
EAST SOLUTION... WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN/SREF AND LATEST ECMWF ARE
IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST PA AND WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NY WITH AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW WESTWARD TO THE FINGER
LAKES. GEFS ENSEMBLE STILL SHOWING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A FEW
MEMBERS WELL EAST OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND A FEW ALSO FARTHER
WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT THROUGHOUT
OUR AREA. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AT THE ONSET OF THE STORM...
WHICH WILL REDUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT IN THE VALLEYS. THE
WATCH FOR 7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW FOR THE WILKES- BARRE AND
SCRANTON AREAS IS PRIMARILY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THOSE
AREAS... AS BUSY HIGHWAYS SUCH AS I-380 AND I-80 ABOVE 1500 FEET
WILL BE IMPACTED BY HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS POINT EXPECTING SNOWFALL
IN THE VALLEY CITIES OF WILKES- BARRE AND SCRANTON TO BE MORE LIKE
3 TO 5 INCHES... BUT OBVIOUSLY AT THIS TIME RANGE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY.


425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT KSYR AND KRME OTHERWISE THE MAIN
AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE WIND.

FREQUENT SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY UP THE LAKE PLAIN FROM ELM TO SYR. OUTSIDE THE
LAKE PLAIN WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON TUESDAY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE SUSTAINED, WITH
GUSTS OVER 20 KTS LIKELY.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE/PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP/MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 250031
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
731 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALREADY EXPERIENCING GUSTY WINDS UP THE LAKE PLAIN AS A POTENT LLJ
RIDES UP LAKE ERIE TOWARD THE CENTRAL PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WILL KEEP ADVISORIES INTACT, AS IT APPEARS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE OVER MUCH OF UPSTATE NY. SUB-ADVISORY
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN PA.

TREND OF MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES BOTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A COLD AIR PUSH...NO
STRONG ADVECTION NOTED...AS COLD AIR SORTA BLEEDS IN SLOWLY.

WITH NO SNOWPACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA, THINK WE CAN MAKE ANOTHER
RUN AT THE MID AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
FROM LUZERNE INTO PIKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 315 PM... IN GENERAL THERE ARE NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST ON THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS INCLUDING SPEEDING UP
THE ONSET OF SNOW SLIGHTLY AND ADDING A FEW COUNTIES TO THE
WATCH... BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE.

HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE OTSEGO
COUNTY NY AND WEST TO INCLUDE LUZERNE... LACKAWANNA AND WYOMING
COUNTIES IN PA. GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHEAST PA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NY ON THE
BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
EVENT AS THE NAM MODEL IS AN OUTLIER WITH A COLDER AND FARTHER
EAST SOLUTION... WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN/SREF AND LATEST ECMWF ARE
IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST PA AND WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NY WITH AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW WESTWARD TO THE FINGER
LAKES. GEFS ENSEMBLE STILL SHOWING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A FEW
MEMBERS WELL EAST OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND A FEW ALSO FARTHER
WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT THROUGHOUT
OUR AREA. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AT THE ONSET OF THE STORM...
WHICH WILL REDUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT IN THE VALLEYS. THE
WATCH FOR 7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW FOR THE WILKES- BARRE AND
SCRANTON AREAS IS PRIMARILY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THOSE
AREAS... AS BUSY HIGHWAYS SUCH AS I-380 AND I-80 ABOVE 1500 FEET
WILL BE IMPACTED BY HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS POINT EXPECTING SNOWFALL
IN THE VALLEY CITIES OF WILKES- BARRE AND SCRANTON TO BE MORE LIKE
3 TO 5 INCHES... BUT OBVIOUSLY AT THIS TIME RANGE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY.


425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT KSYR AND KRME OTHERWISE THE MAIN
AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE WIND.

FREQUENT SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY UP THE LAKE PLAIN FROM ELM TO SYR. OUTSIDE THE
LAKE PLAIN WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON TUESDAY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE SUSTAINED, WITH
GUSTS OVER 20 KTS LIKELY.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MDP/MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 250031
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
731 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALREADY EXPERIENCING GUSTY WINDS UP THE LAKE PLAIN AS A POTENT LLJ
RIDES UP LAKE ERIE TOWARD THE CENTRAL PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WILL KEEP ADVISORIES INTACT, AS IT APPEARS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE OVER MUCH OF UPSTATE NY. SUB-ADVISORY
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN PA.

TREND OF MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES BOTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A COLD AIR PUSH...NO
STRONG ADVECTION NOTED...AS COLD AIR SORTA BLEEDS IN SLOWLY.

WITH NO SNOWPACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA, THINK WE CAN MAKE ANOTHER
RUN AT THE MID AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
FROM LUZERNE INTO PIKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 315 PM... IN GENERAL THERE ARE NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST ON THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS INCLUDING SPEEDING UP
THE ONSET OF SNOW SLIGHTLY AND ADDING A FEW COUNTIES TO THE
WATCH... BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE.

HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE OTSEGO
COUNTY NY AND WEST TO INCLUDE LUZERNE... LACKAWANNA AND WYOMING
COUNTIES IN PA. GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHEAST PA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NY ON THE
BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
EVENT AS THE NAM MODEL IS AN OUTLIER WITH A COLDER AND FARTHER
EAST SOLUTION... WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN/SREF AND LATEST ECMWF ARE
IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST PA AND WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NY WITH AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW WESTWARD TO THE FINGER
LAKES. GEFS ENSEMBLE STILL SHOWING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A FEW
MEMBERS WELL EAST OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND A FEW ALSO FARTHER
WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT THROUGHOUT
OUR AREA. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AT THE ONSET OF THE STORM...
WHICH WILL REDUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT IN THE VALLEYS. THE
WATCH FOR 7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW FOR THE WILKES- BARRE AND
SCRANTON AREAS IS PRIMARILY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THOSE
AREAS... AS BUSY HIGHWAYS SUCH AS I-380 AND I-80 ABOVE 1500 FEET
WILL BE IMPACTED BY HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS POINT EXPECTING SNOWFALL
IN THE VALLEY CITIES OF WILKES- BARRE AND SCRANTON TO BE MORE LIKE
3 TO 5 INCHES... BUT OBVIOUSLY AT THIS TIME RANGE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY.


425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT KSYR AND KRME OTHERWISE THE MAIN
AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE WIND.

FREQUENT SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY UP THE LAKE PLAIN FROM ELM TO SYR. OUTSIDE THE
LAKE PLAIN WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON TUESDAY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE SUSTAINED, WITH
GUSTS OVER 20 KTS LIKELY.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MDP/MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 242030
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
330 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALREADY EXPERIENCING GUSTY WINDS UP THE LAKE PLAIN AS A POTENT LLJ
RIDES UP LAKE ERIE TOWARD THE CENTRAL PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WILL KEEP ADVISORIES INTACT, AS IT APPEARS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE OVER MUCH OF UPSTATE NY. SUB-ADVISORY
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN PA.

TREND OF MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES BOTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A COLD AIR PUSH...NO
STRONG ADVECTION NOTED...AS COLD AIR SORTA BLEEDS IN SLOWLY.

WITH NO SNOWPACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA, THINK WE CAN MAKE ANOTHER
RUN AT THE MID AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
FROM LUZERNE INTO PIKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 315 PM... IN GENERAL THERE ARE NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST ON THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS INCLUDING SPEEDING UP
THE ONSET OF SNOW SLIGHTLY AND ADDING A FEW COUNTIES TO THE
WATCH... BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE.

HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE OTSEGO
COUNTY NY AND WEST TO INCLUDE LUZERNE... LACKAWANNA AND WYOMING
COUNTIES IN PA. GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHEAST PA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NY ON THE
BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
EVENT AS THE NAM MODEL IS AN OUTLIER WITH A COLDER AND FARTHER
EAST SOLUTION... WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN/SREF AND LATEST ECMWF ARE
IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST PA AND WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NY WITH AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW WESTWARD TO THE FINGER
LAKES. GEFS ENSEMBLE STILL SHOWING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A FEW
MEMBERS WELL EAST OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND A FEW ALSO FARTHER
WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT THROUGHOUT
OUR AREA. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AT THE ONSET OF THE STORM...
WHICH WILL REDUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT IN THE VALLEYS. THE
WATCH FOR 7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW FOR THE WILKES- BARRE AND
SCRANTON AREAS IS PRIMARILY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THOSE
AREAS... AS BUSY HIGHWAYS SUCH AS I-380 AND I-80 ABOVE 1500 FEET
WILL BE IMPACTED BY HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS POINT EXPECTING SNOWFALL
IN THE VALLEY CITIES OF WILKES- BARRE AND SCRANTON TO BE MORE LIKE
3 TO 5 INCHES... BUT OBVIOUSLY AT THIS TIME RANGE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY.


425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE LLWS FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR SECONDARY LLJ MOVING UP LAKE ERIE TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO
LATER TODAY. 2000 FT WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS OUT OF
THE SOUTH.

FREQUENT SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY UP THE LAKE PLAIN FROM ELM TO SYR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MDP/MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 242030
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
330 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALREADY EXPERIENCING GUSTY WINDS UP THE LAKE PLAIN AS A POTENT LLJ
RIDES UP LAKE ERIE TOWARD THE CENTRAL PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WILL KEEP ADVISORIES INTACT, AS IT APPEARS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE OVER MUCH OF UPSTATE NY. SUB-ADVISORY
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN PA.

TREND OF MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES BOTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A COLD AIR PUSH...NO
STRONG ADVECTION NOTED...AS COLD AIR SORTA BLEEDS IN SLOWLY.

WITH NO SNOWPACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA, THINK WE CAN MAKE ANOTHER
RUN AT THE MID AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
FROM LUZERNE INTO PIKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 315 PM... IN GENERAL THERE ARE NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST ON THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS INCLUDING SPEEDING UP
THE ONSET OF SNOW SLIGHTLY AND ADDING A FEW COUNTIES TO THE
WATCH... BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE.

HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE OTSEGO
COUNTY NY AND WEST TO INCLUDE LUZERNE... LACKAWANNA AND WYOMING
COUNTIES IN PA. GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHEAST PA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NY ON THE
BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
EVENT AS THE NAM MODEL IS AN OUTLIER WITH A COLDER AND FARTHER
EAST SOLUTION... WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN/SREF AND LATEST ECMWF ARE
IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST PA AND WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NY WITH AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW WESTWARD TO THE FINGER
LAKES. GEFS ENSEMBLE STILL SHOWING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A FEW
MEMBERS WELL EAST OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND A FEW ALSO FARTHER
WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT THROUGHOUT
OUR AREA. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AT THE ONSET OF THE STORM...
WHICH WILL REDUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT IN THE VALLEYS. THE
WATCH FOR 7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW FOR THE WILKES- BARRE AND
SCRANTON AREAS IS PRIMARILY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THOSE
AREAS... AS BUSY HIGHWAYS SUCH AS I-380 AND I-80 ABOVE 1500 FEET
WILL BE IMPACTED BY HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS POINT EXPECTING SNOWFALL
IN THE VALLEY CITIES OF WILKES- BARRE AND SCRANTON TO BE MORE LIKE
3 TO 5 INCHES... BUT OBVIOUSLY AT THIS TIME RANGE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY.


425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE LLWS FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR SECONDARY LLJ MOVING UP LAKE ERIE TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO
LATER TODAY. 2000 FT WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS OUT OF
THE SOUTH.

FREQUENT SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY UP THE LAKE PLAIN FROM ELM TO SYR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MDP/MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 241904
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
204 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALREADY EXPERIENCING GUSTY WINDS UP THE LAKE PLAIN AS A POTENT LLJ
RIDES UP LAKE ERIE TOWARD THE CENTRAL PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WILL KEEP ADVISORIES INTACT, AS IT APPEARS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE OVER MUCH OF UPSTATE NY. SUB-ADVISORY
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN PA.

TREND OF MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES BOTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A COLD AIR PUSH...NO
STRONG ADVECTION NOTED...AS COLD AIR SORTA BLEEDS IN SLOWLY.

WITH NO SNOWPACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA, THINK WE CAN MAKE ANOTHER
RUN AT THE MID AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
FROM LUZERNE INTO PIKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE LLWS FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR SECONDARY LLJ MOVING UP LAKE ERIE TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO
LATER TODAY. 2000 FT WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS OUT OF
THE SOUTH.

FREQUENT SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY UP THE LAKE PLAIN FROM ELM TO SYR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...MDP/MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 241904
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
204 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALREADY EXPERIENCING GUSTY WINDS UP THE LAKE PLAIN AS A POTENT LLJ
RIDES UP LAKE ERIE TOWARD THE CENTRAL PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WILL KEEP ADVISORIES INTACT, AS IT APPEARS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE OVER MUCH OF UPSTATE NY. SUB-ADVISORY
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN PA.

TREND OF MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES BOTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A COLD AIR PUSH...NO
STRONG ADVECTION NOTED...AS COLD AIR SORTA BLEEDS IN SLOWLY.

WITH NO SNOWPACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA, THINK WE CAN MAKE ANOTHER
RUN AT THE MID AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
FROM LUZERNE INTO PIKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE LLWS FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR SECONDARY LLJ MOVING UP LAKE ERIE TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO
LATER TODAY. 2000 FT WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS OUT OF
THE SOUTH.

FREQUENT SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY UP THE LAKE PLAIN FROM ELM TO SYR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...MDP/MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 241822
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
122 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 115 PM... GETTING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH NOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA... AND EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE A BIT MORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT... WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLY MIXING DOWN SOME STRONGER GUSTS.
LATEST KBGM VAD WIND PROFILE STILL SHOWING 40 KT AT 4000 FEET...
AND CERTAINLY EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS TO 40 KTS
ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES ESPECIALLY OVER THE FINGER LAKES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
CLIMB WITH MOST AREAS NOW BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES WHICH WILL BE
NEAR THE HIGHS FOR THE DAY. PREVIIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


UPDATED AT 1030 AM... HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL NY FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE STEEPENING LATE THIS MORNING DUE TO SUNNY AREAS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 IN MANY AREAS. LATEST KBGM VAD WIND PROFILE IS SHOWING
40 KTS OF WIND AT 4000 FT AND WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FEEL THAT
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MIX TO THE SURFACE LATER TODAY. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WIND GUSTS INCREASING
TO 40 KTS ACROSS NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 35-40 KTS ACROSS NE
PA. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGEST WIND GUSTS MAY BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WHEN INCREASED ISOLABARIC WIND
COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE RISE BEHIND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGEST SOUTHWESTERLY ISALOBARIC GRADIENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE FINGER LAKES TO
SYRACUSE AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

630 AM UPDATE...ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR OTSEGO/DELAWARE COUNTIES
UNTIL NOON FOR WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET CORE
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND ALTHOUGH MESONET SITES
SHOW LIMITED GUSTS A FEW ISOLATED TREES AND WIRES DOWN HAVE BEEN
REPORTED VIA SCANNER. OTHERWISE UPDATED POPS AS RAIN IS LIFTING
OUT A LITTLE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISC...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND END THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. AS THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, REGION
WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
DUE TO LIMITED FORCING. A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RESIDE OVER
THE REGION WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS
WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TODAY`S RECORDS
FOR SYR/BGM/AVP ARE 70/63/69 RESPECTIVELY. THE ONLY ONE THAT MAY
FALL WOULD BE BGM.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE IS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE LLWS FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR SECONDARY LLJ MOVING UP LAKE ERIE TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO
LATER TODAY. 2000 FT WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS OUT OF
THE SOUTH.

FREQUENT SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY UP THE LAKE PLAIN FROM ELM TO SYR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 241822
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
122 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 115 PM... GETTING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH NOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA... AND EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE A BIT MORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT... WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLY MIXING DOWN SOME STRONGER GUSTS.
LATEST KBGM VAD WIND PROFILE STILL SHOWING 40 KT AT 4000 FEET...
AND CERTAINLY EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS TO 40 KTS
ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES ESPECIALLY OVER THE FINGER LAKES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
CLIMB WITH MOST AREAS NOW BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES WHICH WILL BE
NEAR THE HIGHS FOR THE DAY. PREVIIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


UPDATED AT 1030 AM... HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL NY FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE STEEPENING LATE THIS MORNING DUE TO SUNNY AREAS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 IN MANY AREAS. LATEST KBGM VAD WIND PROFILE IS SHOWING
40 KTS OF WIND AT 4000 FT AND WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FEEL THAT
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MIX TO THE SURFACE LATER TODAY. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WIND GUSTS INCREASING
TO 40 KTS ACROSS NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 35-40 KTS ACROSS NE
PA. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGEST WIND GUSTS MAY BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WHEN INCREASED ISOLABARIC WIND
COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE RISE BEHIND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGEST SOUTHWESTERLY ISALOBARIC GRADIENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE FINGER LAKES TO
SYRACUSE AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

630 AM UPDATE...ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR OTSEGO/DELAWARE COUNTIES
UNTIL NOON FOR WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET CORE
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND ALTHOUGH MESONET SITES
SHOW LIMITED GUSTS A FEW ISOLATED TREES AND WIRES DOWN HAVE BEEN
REPORTED VIA SCANNER. OTHERWISE UPDATED POPS AS RAIN IS LIFTING
OUT A LITTLE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISC...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND END THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. AS THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, REGION
WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
DUE TO LIMITED FORCING. A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RESIDE OVER
THE REGION WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS
WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TODAY`S RECORDS
FOR SYR/BGM/AVP ARE 70/63/69 RESPECTIVELY. THE ONLY ONE THAT MAY
FALL WOULD BE BGM.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE IS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE LLWS FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR SECONDARY LLJ MOVING UP LAKE ERIE TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO
LATER TODAY. 2000 FT WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS OUT OF
THE SOUTH.

FREQUENT SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY UP THE LAKE PLAIN FROM ELM TO SYR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 241821
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
121 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1030 AM... HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL NY FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE STEEPENING LATE THIS MORNING DUE TO SUNNY AREAS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 IN MANY AREAS. LATEST KBGM VAD WIND PROFILE IS SHOWING
40 KTS OF WIND AT 4000 FT AND WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FEEL THAT
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MIX TO THE SURFACE LATER TODAY. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WIND GUSTS INCREASING
TO 40 KTS ACROSS NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 35-40 KTS ACROSS NE
PA. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGEST WIND GUSTS MAY BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WHEN INCREASED ISOLABARIC WIND
COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE RISE BEHIND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGEST SOUTHWESTERLY ISALOBARIC GRADIENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE FINGER LAKES TO
SYRACUSE AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

630 AM UPDATE...ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR OTSEGO/DELAWARE COUNTIES
UNTIL NOON FOR WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET CORE
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND ALTHOUGH MESONET SITES
SHOW LIMITED GUSTS A FEW ISOLATED TREES AND WIRES DOWN HAVE BEEN
REPORTED VIA SCANNER. OTHERWISE UPDATED POPS AS RAIN IS LIFTING
OUT A LITTLE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISC...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND END THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. AS THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, REGION
WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
DUE TO LIMITED FORCING. A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RESIDE OVER
THE REGION WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS
WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TODAY`S RECORDS
FOR SYR/BGM/AVP ARE 70/63/69 RESPECTIVELY. THE ONLY ONE THAT MAY
FALL WOULD BE BGM.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE IS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE TROF WILL EXTEND OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTHCENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A WNW FLOW
OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL YIELD SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

IMPORTED HPC GRIDS AND MADE MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LAKE EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE LLWS FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR SECONDARY LLJ MOVING UP LAKE ERIE TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO
LATER TODAY. 2000 FT WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS OUT OF
THE SOUTH.

FREQUENT SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY UP THE LAKE PLAIN FROM ELM TO SYR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 241821
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
121 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1030 AM... HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL NY FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE STEEPENING LATE THIS MORNING DUE TO SUNNY AREAS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 IN MANY AREAS. LATEST KBGM VAD WIND PROFILE IS SHOWING
40 KTS OF WIND AT 4000 FT AND WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FEEL THAT
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MIX TO THE SURFACE LATER TODAY. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WIND GUSTS INCREASING
TO 40 KTS ACROSS NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 35-40 KTS ACROSS NE
PA. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGEST WIND GUSTS MAY BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WHEN INCREASED ISOLABARIC WIND
COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE RISE BEHIND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGEST SOUTHWESTERLY ISALOBARIC GRADIENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE FINGER LAKES TO
SYRACUSE AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

630 AM UPDATE...ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR OTSEGO/DELAWARE COUNTIES
UNTIL NOON FOR WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET CORE
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND ALTHOUGH MESONET SITES
SHOW LIMITED GUSTS A FEW ISOLATED TREES AND WIRES DOWN HAVE BEEN
REPORTED VIA SCANNER. OTHERWISE UPDATED POPS AS RAIN IS LIFTING
OUT A LITTLE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISC...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND END THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. AS THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, REGION
WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
DUE TO LIMITED FORCING. A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RESIDE OVER
THE REGION WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS
WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TODAY`S RECORDS
FOR SYR/BGM/AVP ARE 70/63/69 RESPECTIVELY. THE ONLY ONE THAT MAY
FALL WOULD BE BGM.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE IS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE TROF WILL EXTEND OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTHCENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A WNW FLOW
OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL YIELD SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

IMPORTED HPC GRIDS AND MADE MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LAKE EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE LLWS FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR SECONDARY LLJ MOVING UP LAKE ERIE TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO
LATER TODAY. 2000 FT WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS OUT OF
THE SOUTH.

FREQUENT SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY UP THE LAKE PLAIN FROM ELM TO SYR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 241653
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1153 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1030 AM... HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL NY FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE STEEPENING LATE THIS MORNING DUE TO SUNNY AREAS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 IN MANY AREAS. LATEST KBGM VAD WIND PROFILE IS SHOWING
40 KTS OF WIND AT 4000 FT AND WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FEEL THAT
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MIX TO THE SURFACE LATER TODAY. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WIND GUSTS INCREASING
TO 40 KTS ACROSS NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 35-40 KTS ACROSS NE
PA. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGEST WIND GUSTS MAY BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WHEN INCREASED ISOLABARIC WIND
COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE RISE BEHIND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGEST SOUTHWESTERLY ISALOBARIC GRADIENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE FINGER LAKES TO
SYRACUSE AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

630 AM UPDATE...ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR OTSEGO/DELAWARE COUNTIES
UNTIL NOON FOR WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET CORE
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND ALTHOUGH MESONET SITES
SHOW LIMITED GUSTS A FEW ISOLATED TREES AND WIRES DOWN HAVE BEEN
REPORTED VIA SCANNER. OTHERWISE UPDATED POPS AS RAIN IS LIFTING
OUT A LITTLE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISC...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND END THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. AS THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, REGION
WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
DUE TO LIMITED FORCING. A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RESIDE OVER
THE REGION WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS
WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TODAY`S RECORDS
FOR SYR/BGM/AVP ARE 70/63/69 RESPECTIVELY. THE ONLY ONE THAT MAY
FALL WOULD BE BGM.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE IS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE LLWS FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR SECONDARY LLJ MOVING UP LAKE ERIE TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO
LATER TODAY. 2000 FT WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS OUT OF
THE SOUTH.

FREQUENT SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY UP THE LAKE PLAIN FROM ELM TO SYR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ046-057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 241653
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1153 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1030 AM... HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL NY FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE STEEPENING LATE THIS MORNING DUE TO SUNNY AREAS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 IN MANY AREAS. LATEST KBGM VAD WIND PROFILE IS SHOWING
40 KTS OF WIND AT 4000 FT AND WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FEEL THAT
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MIX TO THE SURFACE LATER TODAY. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WIND GUSTS INCREASING
TO 40 KTS ACROSS NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 35-40 KTS ACROSS NE
PA. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGEST WIND GUSTS MAY BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WHEN INCREASED ISOLABARIC WIND
COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE RISE BEHIND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGEST SOUTHWESTERLY ISALOBARIC GRADIENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE FINGER LAKES TO
SYRACUSE AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

630 AM UPDATE...ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR OTSEGO/DELAWARE COUNTIES
UNTIL NOON FOR WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET CORE
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND ALTHOUGH MESONET SITES
SHOW LIMITED GUSTS A FEW ISOLATED TREES AND WIRES DOWN HAVE BEEN
REPORTED VIA SCANNER. OTHERWISE UPDATED POPS AS RAIN IS LIFTING
OUT A LITTLE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISC...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND END THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. AS THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, REGION
WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
DUE TO LIMITED FORCING. A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RESIDE OVER
THE REGION WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS
WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TODAY`S RECORDS
FOR SYR/BGM/AVP ARE 70/63/69 RESPECTIVELY. THE ONLY ONE THAT MAY
FALL WOULD BE BGM.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE IS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE LLWS FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR SECONDARY LLJ MOVING UP LAKE ERIE TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO
LATER TODAY. 2000 FT WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS OUT OF
THE SOUTH.

FREQUENT SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY UP THE LAKE PLAIN FROM ELM TO SYR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ046-057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 241533
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1033 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1030 AM... HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL NY FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE STEEPENING LATE THIS MORNING DUE TO SUNNY AREAS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 IN MANY AREAS. LATEST KBGM VAD WIND PROFILE IS SHOWING
40 KTS OF WIND AT 4000 FT AND WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FEEL THAT
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MIX TO THE SURFACE LATER TODAY. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WIND GUSTS INCREASING
TO 40 KTS ACROSS NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 35-40 KTS ACROSS NE
PA. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGEST WIND GUSTS MAY BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WHEN INCREASED ISOLABARIC WIND
COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE RISE BEHIND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGEST SOUTHWESTERLY ISALOBARIC GRADIENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE FINGER LAKES TO
SYRACUSE AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

630 AM UPDATE...ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR OTSEGO/DELAWARE COUNTIES
UNTIL NOON FOR WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET CORE
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND ALTHOUGH MESONET SITES
SHOW LIMITED GUSTS A FEW ISOLATED TREES AND WIRES DOWN HAVE BEEN
REPORTED VIA SCANNER. OTHERWISE UPDATED POPS AS RAIN IS LIFTING
OUT A LITTLE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISC...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND END THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. AS THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, REGION
WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
DUE TO LIMITED FORCING. A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RESIDE OVER
THE REGION WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS
WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TODAY`S RECORDS
FOR SYR/BGM/AVP ARE 70/63/69 RESPECTIVELY. THE ONLY ONE THAT MAY
FALL WOULD BE BGM.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE IS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS ABOUT 2K FT OFF THE
SURFACE. BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN HAS LIFTED NORTH OF REGION
BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO LOW VFR AS AREA RESIDES IN WARM SECTOR. THIS EVENING THE SFC
OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH BUT BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY DRY WITH NO
PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

SE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-30KTS. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT
12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ046-057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 241533
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1033 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1030 AM... HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL NY FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE STEEPENING LATE THIS MORNING DUE TO SUNNY AREAS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 IN MANY AREAS. LATEST KBGM VAD WIND PROFILE IS SHOWING
40 KTS OF WIND AT 4000 FT AND WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FEEL THAT
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MIX TO THE SURFACE LATER TODAY. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WIND GUSTS INCREASING
TO 40 KTS ACROSS NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 35-40 KTS ACROSS NE
PA. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGEST WIND GUSTS MAY BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WHEN INCREASED ISOLABARIC WIND
COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE RISE BEHIND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGEST SOUTHWESTERLY ISALOBARIC GRADIENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE FINGER LAKES TO
SYRACUSE AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

630 AM UPDATE...ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR OTSEGO/DELAWARE COUNTIES
UNTIL NOON FOR WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET CORE
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND ALTHOUGH MESONET SITES
SHOW LIMITED GUSTS A FEW ISOLATED TREES AND WIRES DOWN HAVE BEEN
REPORTED VIA SCANNER. OTHERWISE UPDATED POPS AS RAIN IS LIFTING
OUT A LITTLE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISC...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND END THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. AS THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, REGION
WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
DUE TO LIMITED FORCING. A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RESIDE OVER
THE REGION WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS
WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TODAY`S RECORDS
FOR SYR/BGM/AVP ARE 70/63/69 RESPECTIVELY. THE ONLY ONE THAT MAY
FALL WOULD BE BGM.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE IS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS ABOUT 2K FT OFF THE
SURFACE. BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN HAS LIFTED NORTH OF REGION
BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO LOW VFR AS AREA RESIDES IN WARM SECTOR. THIS EVENING THE SFC
OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH BUT BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY DRY WITH NO
PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

SE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-30KTS. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT
12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ046-057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 241148
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR OTSEGO/DELAWARE COUNTIES
UNTIL NOON FOR WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET CORE
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND ALTHOUGH MESONET SITES
SHOW LIMITED GUSTS A FEW ISOLATED TREES AND WIRES DOWN HAVE BEEN
REPORTED VIA SCANNER. OTHERWISE UPDATED POPS AS RAIN IS LIFTING
OUT A LITTLE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISC...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND END THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. AS THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, REGION
WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
DUE TO LIMITED FORCING. A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RESIDE OVER
THE REGION WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS
WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TODAY`S RECORDS
FOR SYR/BGM/AVP ARE 70/63/69 RESPECTIVELY. THE ONLY ONE THAT MAY
FALL WOULD BE BGM.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE IS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS ABOUT 2K FT OFF THE
SURFACE. BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN HAS LIFTED NORTH OF REGION
BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO LOW VFR AS AREA RESIDES IN WARM SECTOR. THIS EVENING THE SFC
OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH BUT BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY DRY WITH NO
PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

SE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-30KTS. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT
12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ046-057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 241148
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR OTSEGO/DELAWARE COUNTIES
UNTIL NOON FOR WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET CORE
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND ALTHOUGH MESONET SITES
SHOW LIMITED GUSTS A FEW ISOLATED TREES AND WIRES DOWN HAVE BEEN
REPORTED VIA SCANNER. OTHERWISE UPDATED POPS AS RAIN IS LIFTING
OUT A LITTLE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISC...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND END THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. AS THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, REGION
WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
DUE TO LIMITED FORCING. A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RESIDE OVER
THE REGION WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS
WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TODAY`S RECORDS
FOR SYR/BGM/AVP ARE 70/63/69 RESPECTIVELY. THE ONLY ONE THAT MAY
FALL WOULD BE BGM.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE IS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS ABOUT 2K FT OFF THE
SURFACE. BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN HAS LIFTED NORTH OF REGION
BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO LOW VFR AS AREA RESIDES IN WARM SECTOR. THIS EVENING THE SFC
OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH BUT BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY DRY WITH NO
PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

SE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-30KTS. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT
12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ046-057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240928
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
428 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND END THE
STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. AS THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE
WARM SECTOR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LIMITED FORCING. A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH GUSTS NEAR
35 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TODAY`S RECORDS FOR SYR/BGM/AVP ARE 70/63/69
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONLY ONE THAT MAY FALL WOULD BE BGM.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE IS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS ABOUT 2K FT OFF THE
SURFACE. A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
TERMINALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. IN GENERAL LOW MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS EXCEPT OCCASIONAL IFR AT KTIH BETWEEN 08Z-12Z,
AT KBGM BETWEEN 08Z-15Z AND AT KAVP BETWEEN 11Z-15Z. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR MID/LATE MORNING AS REGION RESIDES
IN WARM SECTOR. THIS EVENING THE SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH
BUT BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY DRY WITH NO PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.

SE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KTS. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT
12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 240928
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
428 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND END THE
STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. AS THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE
WARM SECTOR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LIMITED FORCING. A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH GUSTS NEAR
35 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TODAY`S RECORDS FOR SYR/BGM/AVP ARE 70/63/69
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONLY ONE THAT MAY FALL WOULD BE BGM.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE IS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS ABOUT 2K FT OFF THE
SURFACE. A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
TERMINALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. IN GENERAL LOW MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS EXCEPT OCCASIONAL IFR AT KTIH BETWEEN 08Z-12Z,
AT KBGM BETWEEN 08Z-15Z AND AT KAVP BETWEEN 11Z-15Z. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR MID/LATE MORNING AS REGION RESIDES
IN WARM SECTOR. THIS EVENING THE SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH
BUT BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY DRY WITH NO PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.

SE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KTS. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT
12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240906
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
406 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND END THE
STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. AS THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE
WARM SECTOR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LIMITED FORCING. A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH GUSTS NEAR
35 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TODAY`S RECORDS FOR SYR/BGM/AVP ARE 70/63/69
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONLY ONE THAT MAY FALL WOULD BE BGM.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE IS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE
PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND
SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS
PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH
LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE SAW
LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN FACT...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK AS THOUGH
THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX.

BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE`LL
THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS ABOUT 2K FT OFF THE
SURFACE. A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
TERMINALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. IN GENERAL LOW MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS EXCEPT OCCASIONAL IFR AT KTIH BETWEEN 08Z-12Z,
AT KBGM BETWEEN 08Z-15Z AND AT KAVP BETWEEN 11Z-15Z. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR MID/LATE MORNING AS REGION RESIDES
IN WARM SECTOR. THIS EVENING THE SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH
BUT BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY DRY WITH NO PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.

SE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KTS. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT
12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240906
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
406 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND END THE
STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. AS THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE
WARM SECTOR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LIMITED FORCING. A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH GUSTS NEAR
35 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TODAY`S RECORDS FOR SYR/BGM/AVP ARE 70/63/69
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONLY ONE THAT MAY FALL WOULD BE BGM.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE IS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE
PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND
SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS
PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH
LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE SAW
LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN FACT...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK AS THOUGH
THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX.

BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE`LL
THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS ABOUT 2K FT OFF THE
SURFACE. A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
TERMINALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. IN GENERAL LOW MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS EXCEPT OCCASIONAL IFR AT KTIH BETWEEN 08Z-12Z,
AT KBGM BETWEEN 08Z-15Z AND AT KAVP BETWEEN 11Z-15Z. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR MID/LATE MORNING AS REGION RESIDES
IN WARM SECTOR. THIS EVENING THE SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH
BUT BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY DRY WITH NO PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.

SE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KTS. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT
12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 240558
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1258 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
910 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT, MORE IN LINE WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR. OTHERWISE EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD.
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

315 PM UPDATE... RESIDUAL LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
RGN BY 21-23Z...WITH SOME CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM PA FOR THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS.

THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...THOUGH...AS A WARM FRNTL BNDRY AND AREA OF
STEADY RAINFALL ARE NORTHBOUND FROM THE SERN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM S TO N...GENERALLY IN THE
02-06Z PD. ALTHOUGH FORCED ASCENT IS FAIRLY STG OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG...AND THUS MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE
KEPT MOSTLY IN THE 0.50.75" RANGE...MAINLY FROM ABT I-81 EWD.

STG SRLY FLOW AND LOW-LVL WAA WILL RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TREND ONCE AGN...WITH RISING TEMPS FORESEEN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
325 PM UPDATE... WE STILL EXPECT THAT CNY/NE PA WILL BREAK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR MON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS THAT COULD
APPROACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME PLACES (WELL INTO THE 60S).
ALTHOUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN-FREE
     ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...GIVEN A FAIRLY MOIST
AMS...AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRNT LATE IN THE DAY.

THE JUST REFERRED TO COLD FRNT SHOULD PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE
CWA MON EVE...ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD SHWRS. A CAA REGIME WILL THEN BE
WITH US FROM LATE MON NGT...THROUGH TUE...AND TUE NGT.

ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE
PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND
SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS
PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH
LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE
SAW LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN
FACT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
AS THOUGH THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX.

BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE`LL
THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS ABOUT 2K FT OFF THE
SURFACE. A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
TERMINALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. IN GENERAL LOW MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS EXCEPT OCCASIONAL IFR AT KTIH BETWEEN 08Z-12Z,
AT KBGM BETWEEN 08Z-15Z AND AT KAVP BETWEEN 11Z-15Z. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR MID/LATE MORNING AS REGION RESIDES
IN WARM SECTOR. THIS EVENING THE SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH
BUT BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY DRY WITH NO PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.

SE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KTS. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT
12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 240558
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1258 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
910 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT, MORE IN LINE WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR. OTHERWISE EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD.
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

315 PM UPDATE... RESIDUAL LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
RGN BY 21-23Z...WITH SOME CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM PA FOR THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS.

THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...THOUGH...AS A WARM FRNTL BNDRY AND AREA OF
STEADY RAINFALL ARE NORTHBOUND FROM THE SERN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM S TO N...GENERALLY IN THE
02-06Z PD. ALTHOUGH FORCED ASCENT IS FAIRLY STG OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG...AND THUS MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE
KEPT MOSTLY IN THE 0.50.75" RANGE...MAINLY FROM ABT I-81 EWD.

STG SRLY FLOW AND LOW-LVL WAA WILL RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TREND ONCE AGN...WITH RISING TEMPS FORESEEN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
325 PM UPDATE... WE STILL EXPECT THAT CNY/NE PA WILL BREAK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR MON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS THAT COULD
APPROACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME PLACES (WELL INTO THE 60S).
ALTHOUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN-FREE
     ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...GIVEN A FAIRLY MOIST
AMS...AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRNT LATE IN THE DAY.

THE JUST REFERRED TO COLD FRNT SHOULD PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE
CWA MON EVE...ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD SHWRS. A CAA REGIME WILL THEN BE
WITH US FROM LATE MON NGT...THROUGH TUE...AND TUE NGT.

ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE
PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND
SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS
PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH
LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE
SAW LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN
FACT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
AS THOUGH THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX.

BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE`LL
THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS ABOUT 2K FT OFF THE
SURFACE. A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
TERMINALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. IN GENERAL LOW MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS EXCEPT OCCASIONAL IFR AT KTIH BETWEEN 08Z-12Z,
AT KBGM BETWEEN 08Z-15Z AND AT KAVP BETWEEN 11Z-15Z. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR MID/LATE MORNING AS REGION RESIDES
IN WARM SECTOR. THIS EVENING THE SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH
BUT BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY DRY WITH NO PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.

SE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KTS. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT
12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240211
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
911 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
910 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT, MORE IN LINE WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR. OTHERWISE EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD.
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

315 PM UPDATE... RESIDUAL LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
RGN BY 21-23Z...WITH SOME CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM PA FOR THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS.

THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...THOUGH...AS A WARM FRNTL BNDRY AND AREA OF
STEADY RAINFALL ARE NORTHBOUND FROM THE SERN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM S TO N...GENERALLY IN THE
02-06Z PD. ALTHOUGH FORCED ASCENT IS FAIRLY STG OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG...AND THUS MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE
KEPT MOSTLY IN THE 0.50.75" RANGE...MAINLY FROM ABT I-81 EWD.

STG SRLY FLOW AND LOW-LVL WAA WILL RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TREND ONCE AGN...WITH RISING TEMPS FORESEEN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
325 PM UPDATE... WE STILL EXPECT THAT CNY/NE PA WILL BREAK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR MON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS THAT COULD
APPROACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME PLACES (WELL INTO THE 60S).
ALTHOUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN-FREE
     ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...GIVEN A FAIRLY MOIST
AMS...AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRNT LATE IN THE DAY.

THE JUST REFERRED TO COLD FRNT SHOULD PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE
CWA MON EVE...ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD SHWRS. A CAA REGIME WILL THEN BE
WITH US FROM LATE MON NGT...THROUGH TUE...AND TUE NGT.

ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE
PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND
SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS
PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH
LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE
SAW LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN
FACT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
AS THOUGH THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX.

BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE`LL
THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LLWS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z TUE FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.

VFR WILL BE PROMINENT THRU 06Z TONIGHT BUT CIGS WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BGM AND AVP IN BETTER
MOISTURE. WINDS AT 1500 FEET WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 40-45KTS
AFTER 02Z TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 45-5-KTS DURING THE BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT AT THE 2KFT LEVEL. NOT EXPECTING WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2KFT
TO DROP BELOW 40KTS NEXT 24 HOURS THUS WL MAINTAIN LLWS THRU 00Z
TUE AT ALL TAF SITES.

SSE SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8-15KTS THRU THE PERIOD,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING NEAR 20KTS AT HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240211
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
911 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
910 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT, MORE IN LINE WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR. OTHERWISE EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD.
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

315 PM UPDATE... RESIDUAL LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
RGN BY 21-23Z...WITH SOME CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM PA FOR THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS.

THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...THOUGH...AS A WARM FRNTL BNDRY AND AREA OF
STEADY RAINFALL ARE NORTHBOUND FROM THE SERN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM S TO N...GENERALLY IN THE
02-06Z PD. ALTHOUGH FORCED ASCENT IS FAIRLY STG OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG...AND THUS MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE
KEPT MOSTLY IN THE 0.50.75" RANGE...MAINLY FROM ABT I-81 EWD.

STG SRLY FLOW AND LOW-LVL WAA WILL RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TREND ONCE AGN...WITH RISING TEMPS FORESEEN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
325 PM UPDATE... WE STILL EXPECT THAT CNY/NE PA WILL BREAK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR MON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS THAT COULD
APPROACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME PLACES (WELL INTO THE 60S).
ALTHOUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN-FREE
     ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...GIVEN A FAIRLY MOIST
AMS...AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRNT LATE IN THE DAY.

THE JUST REFERRED TO COLD FRNT SHOULD PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE
CWA MON EVE...ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD SHWRS. A CAA REGIME WILL THEN BE
WITH US FROM LATE MON NGT...THROUGH TUE...AND TUE NGT.

ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE
PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND
SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS
PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH
LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE
SAW LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN
FACT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
AS THOUGH THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX.

BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE`LL
THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LLWS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z TUE FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.

VFR WILL BE PROMINENT THRU 06Z TONIGHT BUT CIGS WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BGM AND AVP IN BETTER
MOISTURE. WINDS AT 1500 FEET WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 40-45KTS
AFTER 02Z TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 45-5-KTS DURING THE BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT AT THE 2KFT LEVEL. NOT EXPECTING WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2KFT
TO DROP BELOW 40KTS NEXT 24 HOURS THUS WL MAINTAIN LLWS THRU 00Z
TUE AT ALL TAF SITES.

SSE SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8-15KTS THRU THE PERIOD,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING NEAR 20KTS AT HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVF








000
FXUS61 KBGM 232358
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
658 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
315 PM UPDATE... RESIDUAL LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
RGN BY 21-23Z...WITH SOME CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM PA FOR THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS.

THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...THOUGH...AS A WARM FRNTL BNDRY AND AREA OF
STEADY RAINFALL ARE NORTHBOUND FROM THE SERN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM S TO N...GENERALLY IN THE
02-06Z PD. ALTHOUGH FORCED ASCENT IS FAIRLY STG OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG...AND THUS MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE
KEPT MOSTLY IN THE 0.50.75" RANGE...MAINLY FROM ABT I-81 EWD.

STG SRLY FLOW AND LOW-LVL WAA WILL RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TREND ONCE AGN...WITH RISING TEMPS FORESEEN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
325 PM UPDATE... WE STILL EXPECT THAT CNY/NE PA WILL BREAK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR MON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS THAT COULD
APPROACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME PLACES (WELL INTO THE 60S).
ALTHOUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN-FREE
     ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...GIVEN A FAIRLY MOIST
AMS...AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRNT LATE IN THE DAY.

THE JUST REFERRED TO COLD FRNT SHOULD PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE
CWA MON EVE...ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD SHWRS. A CAA REGIME WILL THEN BE
WITH US FROM LATE MON NGT...THROUGH TUE...AND TUE NGT.

ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE
PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND
SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS
PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH
LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE
SAW LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN
FACT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
AS THOUGH THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX.

BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE`LL
THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LLWS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z TUE FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.

VFR WILL BE PROMINENT THRU 06Z TONIGHT BUT CIGS WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BGM AND AVP IN BETTER
MOISTURE. WINDS AT 1500 FEET WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 40-45KTS
AFTER 02Z TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 45-5-KTS DURING THE BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT AT THE 2KFT LEVEL. NOT EXPECTING WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2KFT
TO DROP BELOW 40KTS NEXT 24 HOURS THUS WL MAINTAIN LLWS THRU 00Z
TUE AT ALL TAF SITES.

SSE SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8-15KTS THRU THE PERIOD,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING NEAR 20KTS AT HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 232358
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
658 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
315 PM UPDATE... RESIDUAL LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
RGN BY 21-23Z...WITH SOME CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM PA FOR THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS.

THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...THOUGH...AS A WARM FRNTL BNDRY AND AREA OF
STEADY RAINFALL ARE NORTHBOUND FROM THE SERN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM S TO N...GENERALLY IN THE
02-06Z PD. ALTHOUGH FORCED ASCENT IS FAIRLY STG OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG...AND THUS MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE
KEPT MOSTLY IN THE 0.50.75" RANGE...MAINLY FROM ABT I-81 EWD.

STG SRLY FLOW AND LOW-LVL WAA WILL RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TREND ONCE AGN...WITH RISING TEMPS FORESEEN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
325 PM UPDATE... WE STILL EXPECT THAT CNY/NE PA WILL BREAK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR MON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS THAT COULD
APPROACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME PLACES (WELL INTO THE 60S).
ALTHOUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN-FREE
     ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...GIVEN A FAIRLY MOIST
AMS...AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRNT LATE IN THE DAY.

THE JUST REFERRED TO COLD FRNT SHOULD PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE
CWA MON EVE...ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD SHWRS. A CAA REGIME WILL THEN BE
WITH US FROM LATE MON NGT...THROUGH TUE...AND TUE NGT.

ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE
PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND
SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS
PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH
LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE
SAW LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN
FACT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
AS THOUGH THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX.

BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE`LL
THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LLWS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z TUE FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.

VFR WILL BE PROMINENT THRU 06Z TONIGHT BUT CIGS WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BGM AND AVP IN BETTER
MOISTURE. WINDS AT 1500 FEET WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 40-45KTS
AFTER 02Z TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 45-5-KTS DURING THE BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT AT THE 2KFT LEVEL. NOT EXPECTING WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2KFT
TO DROP BELOW 40KTS NEXT 24 HOURS THUS WL MAINTAIN LLWS THRU 00Z
TUE AT ALL TAF SITES.

SSE SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8-15KTS THRU THE PERIOD,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING NEAR 20KTS AT HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVF








000
FXUS61 KBGM 232024
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
324 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
315 PM UPDATE... RESIDUAL LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
RGN BY 21-23Z...WITH SOME CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM PA FOR THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS.

THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...THOUGH...AS A WARM FRNTL BNDRY AND AREA OF
STEADY RAINFALL ARE NORTHBOUND FROM THE SERN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM S TO N...GENERALLY IN THE
02-06Z PD. ALTHOUGH FORCED ASCENT IS FAIRLY STG OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG...AND THUS MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE
KEPT MOSTLY IN THE 0.50.75" RANGE...MAINLY FROM ABT I-81 EWD.

STG SRLY FLOW AND LOW-LVL WAA WILL RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TREND ONCE AGN...WITH RISING TEMPS FORESEEN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
325 PM UPDATE... WE STILL EXPECT THAT CNY/NE PA WILL BREAK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR MON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS THAT COULD
APPROACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME PLACES (WELL INTO THE 60S).
ALTHOUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN-FREE
...ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...GIVEN A FAIRLY MOIST
AMS...AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRNT LATE IN THE DAY.

THE JUST REFERRED TO COLD FRNT SHOULD PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE
CWA MON EVE...ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD SHWRS. A CAA REGIME WILL THEN BE
WITH US FROM LATE MON NGT...THROUGH TUE...AND TUE NGT.

ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE
PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND
SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS
PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH
LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE
SAW LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN
FACT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
AS THOUGH THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX.

BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE`LL
THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A STRONG LL
JET PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH NY AND PA.

SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGELY
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS KICKS OFF BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z, WITH 1500-2000
FT WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN
4Z AND 8Z, ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR PUSH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST WITH THE MOISTURE WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY AT BGM.

WARM SECTOR ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY, THOUGH SKIES MAY
REMAIN OVERCAST. MODELS ARE NOT QUICK TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 232024
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
324 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
315 PM UPDATE... RESIDUAL LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
RGN BY 21-23Z...WITH SOME CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM PA FOR THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS.

THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...THOUGH...AS A WARM FRNTL BNDRY AND AREA OF
STEADY RAINFALL ARE NORTHBOUND FROM THE SERN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM S TO N...GENERALLY IN THE
02-06Z PD. ALTHOUGH FORCED ASCENT IS FAIRLY STG OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG...AND THUS MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE
KEPT MOSTLY IN THE 0.50.75" RANGE...MAINLY FROM ABT I-81 EWD.

STG SRLY FLOW AND LOW-LVL WAA WILL RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TREND ONCE AGN...WITH RISING TEMPS FORESEEN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
325 PM UPDATE... WE STILL EXPECT THAT CNY/NE PA WILL BREAK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR MON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS THAT COULD
APPROACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME PLACES (WELL INTO THE 60S).
ALTHOUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN-FREE
...ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...GIVEN A FAIRLY MOIST
AMS...AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRNT LATE IN THE DAY.

THE JUST REFERRED TO COLD FRNT SHOULD PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE
CWA MON EVE...ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD SHWRS. A CAA REGIME WILL THEN BE
WITH US FROM LATE MON NGT...THROUGH TUE...AND TUE NGT.

ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE
PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND
SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS
PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH
LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE
SAW LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN
FACT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
AS THOUGH THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX.

BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE`LL
THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A STRONG LL
JET PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH NY AND PA.

SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGELY
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS KICKS OFF BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z, WITH 1500-2000
FT WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN
4Z AND 8Z, ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR PUSH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST WITH THE MOISTURE WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY AT BGM.

WARM SECTOR ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY, THOUGH SKIES MAY
REMAIN OVERCAST. MODELS ARE NOT QUICK TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 231748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1215 PM UPDATE...THE AREA OF LGT PCPN HAS HELD TOGETHER A BIT
BETTER/LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THUS...WE`VE INCLUDED A
CHC OF SPRINKLES FROM ABT THE TWIN TIERS NWD THROUGH 18-20Z.

BEHIND THIS AREA OF CLDS/SPRINKLES...SOME CLEARING IS NOTED ON SAT
IMAGERY ACRS PA...AND WE THINK SKIES WILL BECOME AT LEAST PTLY
SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

THEREAFTER...CLDS WILL INCREASE AGN BY EARLY EVE...WITH RAIN
SETTING IN BY 03-06Z.

PREV DISC... 10 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE...SO JUST A FEW COSMETIC CHGS ARE NEEDED ATTM.

A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS/SPRINKLES CONTS TO LIFT NEWD LATE THIS
MRNG FROM WRN NY/NWRN PA...ASSOCD WITH A VERY WEAK S/WV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD SWLY FLOW PATN ALOFT. WE FEEL A FEW
SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE NRN FINGER LKS THROUGH ABT
MIDDAY...BUT THAT`S ABT IT...WITH MUCH OF THE FA STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A BAND OF THICKER CLDS TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED FEATURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR WRN/NRN ZNS THROUGH 16-18Z...BUT OTHWS BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD DVLP WITH TIME TDY. INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
925-850 MB WAA SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID
50S.

EARLIER DISC... AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF I81 WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A STRONG LL
JET PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH NY AND PA.

SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGELY
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS KICKS OFF BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z, WITH 1500-2000
FT WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN
4Z AND 8Z, ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR PUSH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST WITH THE MOISTURE WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY AT BGM.

WARM SECTOR ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY, THOUGH SKIES MAY
REMAIN OVERCAST. MODELS ARE NOT QUICK TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1215 PM UPDATE...THE AREA OF LGT PCPN HAS HELD TOGETHER A BIT
BETTER/LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THUS...WE`VE INCLUDED A
CHC OF SPRINKLES FROM ABT THE TWIN TIERS NWD THROUGH 18-20Z.

BEHIND THIS AREA OF CLDS/SPRINKLES...SOME CLEARING IS NOTED ON SAT
IMAGERY ACRS PA...AND WE THINK SKIES WILL BECOME AT LEAST PTLY
SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

THEREAFTER...CLDS WILL INCREASE AGN BY EARLY EVE...WITH RAIN
SETTING IN BY 03-06Z.

PREV DISC... 10 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE...SO JUST A FEW COSMETIC CHGS ARE NEEDED ATTM.

A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS/SPRINKLES CONTS TO LIFT NEWD LATE THIS
MRNG FROM WRN NY/NWRN PA...ASSOCD WITH A VERY WEAK S/WV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD SWLY FLOW PATN ALOFT. WE FEEL A FEW
SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE NRN FINGER LKS THROUGH ABT
MIDDAY...BUT THAT`S ABT IT...WITH MUCH OF THE FA STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A BAND OF THICKER CLDS TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED FEATURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR WRN/NRN ZNS THROUGH 16-18Z...BUT OTHWS BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD DVLP WITH TIME TDY. INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
925-850 MB WAA SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID
50S.

EARLIER DISC... AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF I81 WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A STRONG LL
JET PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH NY AND PA.

SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGELY
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS KICKS OFF BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z, WITH 1500-2000
FT WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN
4Z AND 8Z, ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR PUSH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST WITH THE MOISTURE WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY AT BGM.

WARM SECTOR ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY, THOUGH SKIES MAY
REMAIN OVERCAST. MODELS ARE NOT QUICK TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 231720
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1219 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1215 PM UPDATE...THE AREA OF LGT PCPN HAS HELD TOGETHER A BIT
BETTER/LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THUS...WE`VE INCLUDED A
CHC OF SPRINKLES FROM ABT THE TWIN TIERS NWD THROUGH 18-20Z.

BEHIND THIS AREA OF CLDS/SPRINKLES...SOME CLEARING IS NOTED ON SAT
IMAGERY ACRS PA...AND WE THINK SKIES WILL BECOME AT LEAST PTLY
SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

THEREAFTER...CLDS WILL INCREASE AGN BY EARLY EVE...WITH RAIN
SETTING IN BY 03-06Z.

PREV DISC... 10 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE...SO JUST A FEW COSMETIC CHGS ARE NEEDED ATTM.

A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS/SPRINKLES CONTS TO LIFT NEWD LATE THIS
MRNG FROM WRN NY/NWRN PA...ASSOCD WITH A VERY WEAK S/WV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD SWLY FLOW PATN ALOFT. WE FEEL A FEW
SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE NRN FINGER LKS THROUGH ABT
MIDDAY...BUT THAT`S ABT IT...WITH MUCH OF THE FA STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A BAND OF THICKER CLDS TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED FEATURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR WRN/NRN ZNS THROUGH 16-18Z...BUT OTHWS BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD DVLP WITH TIME TDY. INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
925-850 MB WAA SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID
50S.

EARLIER DISC... AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF I81 WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A STRONG LL
JET PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH NY AND PA.

SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGELY
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS KICKS OFF BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z, WITH 1500-2000
FT WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN
4Z AND 8Z, ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR PUSH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST WITH THE MOISTURE WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY AT BGM.

WARM SECTOR ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY, THOUGH SKIES MAY
REMAIN OVERCAST. MODELS ARE NOT QUICK TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231709
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1209 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE...SO JUST A
FEW COSMETIC CHGS ARE NEEDED ATTM.

A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS/SPRINKLES CONTS TO LIFT NEWD LATE THIS
MRNG FROM WRN NY/NWRN PA...ASSOCD WITH A VERY WEAK S/WV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD SWLY FLOW PATN ALOFT. WE FEEL A FEW
SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE NRN FINGER LKS THROUGH ABT
MIDDAY...BUT THAT`S ABT IT...WITH MUCH OF THE FA STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A BAND OF THICKER CLDS TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED FEATURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR WRN/NRN ZNS THROUGH 16-18Z...BUT OTHWS BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD DVLP WITH TIME TDY. INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
925-850 MB WAA SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID
50S.

PREV DISC... AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF I81 WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A STRONG LL
JET PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH NY AND PA.

SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGELY
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS KICKS OFF BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z, WITH 1500-2000
FT WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN
4Z AND 8Z, ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR PUSH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST WITH THE MOISTURE WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY AT BGM.

WARM SECTOR ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY, THOUGH SKIES MAY
REMAIN OVERCAST. MODELS ARE NOT QUICK TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231709
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1209 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE...SO JUST A
FEW COSMETIC CHGS ARE NEEDED ATTM.

A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS/SPRINKLES CONTS TO LIFT NEWD LATE THIS
MRNG FROM WRN NY/NWRN PA...ASSOCD WITH A VERY WEAK S/WV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD SWLY FLOW PATN ALOFT. WE FEEL A FEW
SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE NRN FINGER LKS THROUGH ABT
MIDDAY...BUT THAT`S ABT IT...WITH MUCH OF THE FA STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A BAND OF THICKER CLDS TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED FEATURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR WRN/NRN ZNS THROUGH 16-18Z...BUT OTHWS BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD DVLP WITH TIME TDY. INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
925-850 MB WAA SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID
50S.

PREV DISC... AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF I81 WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A STRONG LL
JET PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH NY AND PA.

SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGELY
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS KICKS OFF BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z, WITH 1500-2000
FT WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN
4Z AND 8Z, ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR PUSH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST WITH THE MOISTURE WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY AT BGM.

WARM SECTOR ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY, THOUGH SKIES MAY
REMAIN OVERCAST. MODELS ARE NOT QUICK TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 231451
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
951 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE...SO JUST A
FEW COSMETIC CHGS ARE NEEDED ATTM.

A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS/SPRINKLES CONTS TO LIFT NEWD LATE THIS
MRNG FROM WRN NY/NWRN PA...ASSOCD WITH A VERY WEAK S/WV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD SWLY FLOW PATN ALOFT. WE FEEL A FEW
SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE NRN FINGER LKS THROUGH ABT
MIDDAY...BUT THAT`S ABT IT...WITH MUCH OF THE FA STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A BAND OF THICKER CLDS TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED FEATURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR WRN/NRN ZNS THROUGH 16-18Z...BUT OTHWS BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD DVLP WITH TIME TDY. INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
925-850 MB WAA SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID
50S.

PREV DISC... AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF I81 WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT LLWS IS GOING AWAY FOR 12Z AS FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY
SLACKENS. UNFORTUNATELY...ENHANCED JET FROM A STRONGLY FORCED WAVE
APPEARS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP LLWS TONIGHT. AS FOR CLOUDS...KAVP TO
REMAIN VFR...BUT REMAINDER OF TERMINALS HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END
VFR THIS MORNING...BECOMING ALL VFR THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY TONIGHT.
AS WAVE MOVES SW TO NE LATER TONIGHT...FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIG AND
RAIN IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TERMINALS...BECOMING IFR CIG
KBGM-KITH. WINDS LIGHT SW /EXCEPT REMAINING ESE KRME/...BACKING SE
AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LLWS MON MORNING...THEN
SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 231451
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
951 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE...SO JUST A
FEW COSMETIC CHGS ARE NEEDED ATTM.

A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS/SPRINKLES CONTS TO LIFT NEWD LATE THIS
MRNG FROM WRN NY/NWRN PA...ASSOCD WITH A VERY WEAK S/WV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD SWLY FLOW PATN ALOFT. WE FEEL A FEW
SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE NRN FINGER LKS THROUGH ABT
MIDDAY...BUT THAT`S ABT IT...WITH MUCH OF THE FA STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A BAND OF THICKER CLDS TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED FEATURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR WRN/NRN ZNS THROUGH 16-18Z...BUT OTHWS BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD DVLP WITH TIME TDY. INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
925-850 MB WAA SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID
50S.

PREV DISC... AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF I81 WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT LLWS IS GOING AWAY FOR 12Z AS FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY
SLACKENS. UNFORTUNATELY...ENHANCED JET FROM A STRONGLY FORCED WAVE
APPEARS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP LLWS TONIGHT. AS FOR CLOUDS...KAVP TO
REMAIN VFR...BUT REMAINDER OF TERMINALS HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END
VFR THIS MORNING...BECOMING ALL VFR THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY TONIGHT.
AS WAVE MOVES SW TO NE LATER TONIGHT...FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIG AND
RAIN IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TERMINALS...BECOMING IFR CIG
KBGM-KITH. WINDS LIGHT SW /EXCEPT REMAINING ESE KRME/...BACKING SE
AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LLWS MON MORNING...THEN
SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231148
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING PRIMARILY EAST OF I81
WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL
ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT LLWS IS GOING AWAY FOR 12Z AS FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY
SLACKENS. UNFORTUNATELY...ENHANCED JET FROM A STRONGLY FORCED WAVE
APPEARS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP LLWS TONIGHT. AS FOR CLOUDS...KAVP TO
REMAIN VFR...BUT REMAINDER OF TERMINALS HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END
VFR THIS MORNING...BECOMING ALL VFR THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY TONIGHT.
AS WAVE MOVES SW TO NE LATER TONIGHT...FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIG AND
RAIN IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TERMINALS...BECOMING IFR CIG
KBGM-KITH. WINDS LIGHT SW /EXCEPT REMAINING ESE KRME/...BACKING SE
AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LLWS MON MORNING...THEN
SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 231148
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING PRIMARILY EAST OF I81
WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL
ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT LLWS IS GOING AWAY FOR 12Z AS FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY
SLACKENS. UNFORTUNATELY...ENHANCED JET FROM A STRONGLY FORCED WAVE
APPEARS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP LLWS TONIGHT. AS FOR CLOUDS...KAVP TO
REMAIN VFR...BUT REMAINDER OF TERMINALS HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END
VFR THIS MORNING...BECOMING ALL VFR THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY TONIGHT.
AS WAVE MOVES SW TO NE LATER TONIGHT...FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIG AND
RAIN IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TERMINALS...BECOMING IFR CIG
KBGM-KITH. WINDS LIGHT SW /EXCEPT REMAINING ESE KRME/...BACKING SE
AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LLWS MON MORNING...THEN
SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...MDP








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