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000
FXUS61 KBGM 301044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SAME
SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEENED AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COMPLEX AND SLOW MVG SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF CST
WILL BEGIN THE AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. APRCHG SFC BNDRY DROPPING
THRU THE LAKES WILL PROVIDE LL CONV AND BE THE FOCUS OF THE PCPN
TODAY. STRENGTHENING UPR LVL JET WILL PROVIDE DIVERGENT FLOW AND
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE...RAIN WILL BRK OUT DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE FNT PARALLEL WITH THE UPR FLOW...PSN OF THE FNT DFCLT TO FCST
AND KEY TO THE RAIN AND TSTMS EARLY ON. FOR NOW...BEST CHANCE WILL
BE ACROSS THE WRN ZONES TODAY...ALTHOUGH RIPPLE PASSING THRU IN
THE FLOW PRBLY BRING AT LEAST A PD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA.

WITH PWATS BETTER THAN AN INCH AND A HALF OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...AND LTL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN FLOW...CONCRN FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IN TRAINING CELLS CONTS TODAY. AS USUAL...NAM HAS
CNSRBLY MORE CAPE THAN OTR MODELS AND LIKELY OVERDOING AMTS BY AT
LEAST DOUBLE. SPS CONTS THE MRGNL SVR FCST AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF HTG...AND LTL SHEAR WITHIN THE
PROFILE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WET FCST CONTS WITH POOR AGREEMENT IN THE MDOELS ON TIMING AND PSN
OF KEY FEATURES...LEADING LOW CONFIDENCE OF THE DETAILS. FOR
STARTERS...TEMP FCST TRICKY AS THE FNT COULD LIKELY BE DRAPED THRU
THE FCST AREA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE PD LDG TO A 10 - 15 DEGREE
OR BETTER DFRNC IN TEMPS.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FNT PASSES THRU MUCH OF THE AREA LAT SAT OR
EARLY SUN...BUT THEN A SIGNIFICANT WV APRCHG STALLS THE FNT AND
MAY EVEN LIFT IT BACK NWRD LTR SUN AND EARLY MON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA INTO MON.

HAVE DECIDED THAT THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET WILL BE TO BE LESS
SPECIFIC WITH THE POPS AND GO WITH A MORE GNRL LIKELY POP WITH
INCRSD CHANCE OF CONV IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...NEARER THE MOST
LIKELY PSN OF THE FNT.

SIGNIFICANT DFRNCS IN MODEL TEMP GUID BUT WITH A BASIC AGREEMENT
IN THE OVERALL PTRN....HIGHER TEMPS IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BIG-PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN AT PLAY FOR
THE EXTENDED PTN OF THE FCST AS IN PREV MODEL CYCLES.

A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRNTL ZN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS MON NGT...AND QUT PSBLY INTO TUE.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...UPR-LVL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY WX IS
FORESEEN WED-THU...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMPLEX FORECAST IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...
AND SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LOCATED OVER NE PA AS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
LOW LVL MOISTURE IS PRESENT. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. BELIEVE THEY WILL DEVELOP SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE DAY
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... AFTER 18Z. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE
POSSIBLE THRU THE MORNING BUT DO NOT EXPECT RESTRICTIONS.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE MVFR VISBYS WITH VFR CIGS. EXPECT
THE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AROUND 03Z THEN A SECOND MORE
ORGANIZED ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT. TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD BUT
ONLY PUT IN TAF WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS THE GREATEST... THUS TAFS MAY
NEED TO BE AMD. EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR
TO IFR WITH THE FROPA. QUESTIONS STILL EXIST WITH THE TIMING OF
THE FROPA.

WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 KNOTS AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT... WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/PCF
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 301044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SAME
SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEENED AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COMPLEX AND SLOW MVG SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF CST
WILL BEGIN THE AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. APRCHG SFC BNDRY DROPPING
THRU THE LAKES WILL PROVIDE LL CONV AND BE THE FOCUS OF THE PCPN
TODAY. STRENGTHENING UPR LVL JET WILL PROVIDE DIVERGENT FLOW AND
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE...RAIN WILL BRK OUT DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE FNT PARALLEL WITH THE UPR FLOW...PSN OF THE FNT DFCLT TO FCST
AND KEY TO THE RAIN AND TSTMS EARLY ON. FOR NOW...BEST CHANCE WILL
BE ACROSS THE WRN ZONES TODAY...ALTHOUGH RIPPLE PASSING THRU IN
THE FLOW PRBLY BRING AT LEAST A PD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA.

WITH PWATS BETTER THAN AN INCH AND A HALF OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...AND LTL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN FLOW...CONCRN FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IN TRAINING CELLS CONTS TODAY. AS USUAL...NAM HAS
CNSRBLY MORE CAPE THAN OTR MODELS AND LIKELY OVERDOING AMTS BY AT
LEAST DOUBLE. SPS CONTS THE MRGNL SVR FCST AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF HTG...AND LTL SHEAR WITHIN THE
PROFILE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WET FCST CONTS WITH POOR AGREEMENT IN THE MDOELS ON TIMING AND PSN
OF KEY FEATURES...LEADING LOW CONFIDENCE OF THE DETAILS. FOR
STARTERS...TEMP FCST TRICKY AS THE FNT COULD LIKELY BE DRAPED THRU
THE FCST AREA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE PD LDG TO A 10 - 15 DEGREE
OR BETTER DFRNC IN TEMPS.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FNT PASSES THRU MUCH OF THE AREA LAT SAT OR
EARLY SUN...BUT THEN A SIGNIFICANT WV APRCHG STALLS THE FNT AND
MAY EVEN LIFT IT BACK NWRD LTR SUN AND EARLY MON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA INTO MON.

HAVE DECIDED THAT THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET WILL BE TO BE LESS
SPECIFIC WITH THE POPS AND GO WITH A MORE GNRL LIKELY POP WITH
INCRSD CHANCE OF CONV IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...NEARER THE MOST
LIKELY PSN OF THE FNT.

SIGNIFICANT DFRNCS IN MODEL TEMP GUID BUT WITH A BASIC AGREEMENT
IN THE OVERALL PTRN....HIGHER TEMPS IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BIG-PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN AT PLAY FOR
THE EXTENDED PTN OF THE FCST AS IN PREV MODEL CYCLES.

A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRNTL ZN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS MON NGT...AND QUT PSBLY INTO TUE.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...UPR-LVL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY WX IS
FORESEEN WED-THU...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMPLEX FORECAST IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...
AND SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LOCATED OVER NE PA AS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
LOW LVL MOISTURE IS PRESENT. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. BELIEVE THEY WILL DEVELOP SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE DAY
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... AFTER 18Z. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE
POSSIBLE THRU THE MORNING BUT DO NOT EXPECT RESTRICTIONS.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE MVFR VISBYS WITH VFR CIGS. EXPECT
THE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AROUND 03Z THEN A SECOND MORE
ORGANIZED ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT. TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD BUT
ONLY PUT IN TAF WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS THE GREATEST... THUS TAFS MAY
NEED TO BE AMD. EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR
TO IFR WITH THE FROPA. QUESTIONS STILL EXIST WITH THE TIMING OF
THE FROPA.

WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 KNOTS AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT... WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/PCF
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 300626
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
226 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SAME
SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEENED AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

COMPLEX AND SLOW MVG SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF CST
WILL BEGIN THE AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. APRCHG SFC BNDRY DROPPING
THRU THE LAKES WILL PROVIDE LL CONV AND BE THE FOCUS OF THE PCPN
TODAY. STRENGTHENING UPR LVL JET WILL PROVIDE DIVERGENT FLOW AND
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE...RAIN WILL BRK OUT DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE FNT PARALLEL WITH THE UPR FLOW...PSN OF THE FNT DFCLT TO FCST
AND KEY TO THE RAIN AND TSTMS EARLY ON. FOR NOW...BEST CHANCE WILL
BE ACROSS THE WRN ZONES TODAY...ALTHOUGH RIPPLE PASSING THRU IN
THE FLOW PRBLY BRING AT LEAST A PD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA.

WITH PWATS BETTER THAN AN INCH AND A HALF OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...AND LTL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN FLOW...CONCRN FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IN TRAINING CELLS CONTS TODAY. AS USUAL...NAM HAS
CNSRBLY MORE CAPE THAN OTR MODELS AND LIKELY OVERDOING AMTS BY AT
LEAST DOUBLE. SPS CONTS THE MRGNL SVR FCST AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF HTG...AND LTL SHEAR WITHIN THE
PROFILE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

WET FCST CONTS WITH POOR AGREEMENT IN THE MDOELS ON TIMING AND PSN
OF KEY FEATURES...LEADING LOW CONFIDENCE OF THE DETAILS. FOR
STARTERS...TEMP FCST TRICKY AS THE FNT COULD LIKELY BE DRAPED THRU
THE FCST AREA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE PD LDG TO A 10 - 15 DEGREE
OR BETTER DFRNC IN TEMPS.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FNT PASSES THRU MUCH OF THE AREA LAT SAT OR
EARLY SUN...BUT THEN A SIGNIFICANT WV APRCHG STALLS THE FNT AND
MAY EVEN LIFT IT BACK NWRD LTR SUN AND EARLY MON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA INTO MON.

HAVE DECIDED THAT THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET WILL BE TO BE LESS
SPECIFIC WITH THE POPS AND GO WITH A MORE GNRL LIKELY POP WITH
INCRSD CHANCE OF CONV IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...NEARER THE MOST
LIKELY PSN OF THE FNT.

SIGNIFICANT DFRNCS IN MODEL TEMP GUID BUT WITH A BASIC AGREEMENT
IN THE OVERALL PTRN....HIGHER TEMPS IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BIG-PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN AT PLAY FOR
THE EXTENDED PTN OF THE FCST AS IN PREV MODEL CYCLES.

A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRNTL ZN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS MON NGT...AND QUT PSBLY INTO TUE.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...UPR-LVL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY WX IS
FORESEEN WED-THU...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED VFR SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON... THEN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO TRANSITION OVER TO MVFR THUNDERSTORMS.
TRIED TO CAPTURE WHEN TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PLACED IN A 4 HR
TEMPO GROUP. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ATTM ON ON TIMING
THUS JUST KEPT THE TEMPO.

A STEADIER BAND OF PRECIP ALONG A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AFTER 03Z SUNDAY... AND MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW. THERE ARE LARGE DISCREPANCY WITHIN
GUIDANCE ON WHEN THE FROPA WILL BE. WENT WITH A MIDDLE GROUND
SOLUTION AROUND 05Z.

WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 KNOTS AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT... WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/PCF
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 300626
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
226 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SAME
SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEENED AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

COMPLEX AND SLOW MVG SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF CST
WILL BEGIN THE AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. APRCHG SFC BNDRY DROPPING
THRU THE LAKES WILL PROVIDE LL CONV AND BE THE FOCUS OF THE PCPN
TODAY. STRENGTHENING UPR LVL JET WILL PROVIDE DIVERGENT FLOW AND
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE...RAIN WILL BRK OUT DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE FNT PARALLEL WITH THE UPR FLOW...PSN OF THE FNT DFCLT TO FCST
AND KEY TO THE RAIN AND TSTMS EARLY ON. FOR NOW...BEST CHANCE WILL
BE ACROSS THE WRN ZONES TODAY...ALTHOUGH RIPPLE PASSING THRU IN
THE FLOW PRBLY BRING AT LEAST A PD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA.

WITH PWATS BETTER THAN AN INCH AND A HALF OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...AND LTL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN FLOW...CONCRN FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IN TRAINING CELLS CONTS TODAY. AS USUAL...NAM HAS
CNSRBLY MORE CAPE THAN OTR MODELS AND LIKELY OVERDOING AMTS BY AT
LEAST DOUBLE. SPS CONTS THE MRGNL SVR FCST AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF HTG...AND LTL SHEAR WITHIN THE
PROFILE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

WET FCST CONTS WITH POOR AGREEMENT IN THE MDOELS ON TIMING AND PSN
OF KEY FEATURES...LEADING LOW CONFIDENCE OF THE DETAILS. FOR
STARTERS...TEMP FCST TRICKY AS THE FNT COULD LIKELY BE DRAPED THRU
THE FCST AREA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE PD LDG TO A 10 - 15 DEGREE
OR BETTER DFRNC IN TEMPS.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FNT PASSES THRU MUCH OF THE AREA LAT SAT OR
EARLY SUN...BUT THEN A SIGNIFICANT WV APRCHG STALLS THE FNT AND
MAY EVEN LIFT IT BACK NWRD LTR SUN AND EARLY MON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA INTO MON.

HAVE DECIDED THAT THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET WILL BE TO BE LESS
SPECIFIC WITH THE POPS AND GO WITH A MORE GNRL LIKELY POP WITH
INCRSD CHANCE OF CONV IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...NEARER THE MOST
LIKELY PSN OF THE FNT.

SIGNIFICANT DFRNCS IN MODEL TEMP GUID BUT WITH A BASIC AGREEMENT
IN THE OVERALL PTRN....HIGHER TEMPS IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BIG-PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN AT PLAY FOR
THE EXTENDED PTN OF THE FCST AS IN PREV MODEL CYCLES.

A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRNTL ZN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS MON NGT...AND QUT PSBLY INTO TUE.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...UPR-LVL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY WX IS
FORESEEN WED-THU...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED VFR SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON... THEN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO TRANSITION OVER TO MVFR THUNDERSTORMS.
TRIED TO CAPTURE WHEN TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PLACED IN A 4 HR
TEMPO GROUP. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ATTM ON ON TIMING
THUS JUST KEPT THE TEMPO.

A STEADIER BAND OF PRECIP ALONG A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AFTER 03Z SUNDAY... AND MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW. THERE ARE LARGE DISCREPANCY WITHIN
GUIDANCE ON WHEN THE FROPA WILL BE. WENT WITH A MIDDLE GROUND
SOLUTION AROUND 05Z.

WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 KNOTS AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT... WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/PCF
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 300626
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
226 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SAME
SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEENED AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

COMPLEX AND SLOW MVG SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF CST
WILL BEGIN THE AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. APRCHG SFC BNDRY DROPPING
THRU THE LAKES WILL PROVIDE LL CONV AND BE THE FOCUS OF THE PCPN
TODAY. STRENGTHENING UPR LVL JET WILL PROVIDE DIVERGENT FLOW AND
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE...RAIN WILL BRK OUT DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE FNT PARALLEL WITH THE UPR FLOW...PSN OF THE FNT DFCLT TO FCST
AND KEY TO THE RAIN AND TSTMS EARLY ON. FOR NOW...BEST CHANCE WILL
BE ACROSS THE WRN ZONES TODAY...ALTHOUGH RIPPLE PASSING THRU IN
THE FLOW PRBLY BRING AT LEAST A PD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA.

WITH PWATS BETTER THAN AN INCH AND A HALF OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...AND LTL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN FLOW...CONCRN FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IN TRAINING CELLS CONTS TODAY. AS USUAL...NAM HAS
CNSRBLY MORE CAPE THAN OTR MODELS AND LIKELY OVERDOING AMTS BY AT
LEAST DOUBLE. SPS CONTS THE MRGNL SVR FCST AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF HTG...AND LTL SHEAR WITHIN THE
PROFILE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

WET FCST CONTS WITH POOR AGREEMENT IN THE MDOELS ON TIMING AND PSN
OF KEY FEATURES...LEADING LOW CONFIDENCE OF THE DETAILS. FOR
STARTERS...TEMP FCST TRICKY AS THE FNT COULD LIKELY BE DRAPED THRU
THE FCST AREA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE PD LDG TO A 10 - 15 DEGREE
OR BETTER DFRNC IN TEMPS.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FNT PASSES THRU MUCH OF THE AREA LAT SAT OR
EARLY SUN...BUT THEN A SIGNIFICANT WV APRCHG STALLS THE FNT AND
MAY EVEN LIFT IT BACK NWRD LTR SUN AND EARLY MON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA INTO MON.

HAVE DECIDED THAT THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET WILL BE TO BE LESS
SPECIFIC WITH THE POPS AND GO WITH A MORE GNRL LIKELY POP WITH
INCRSD CHANCE OF CONV IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...NEARER THE MOST
LIKELY PSN OF THE FNT.

SIGNIFICANT DFRNCS IN MODEL TEMP GUID BUT WITH A BASIC AGREEMENT
IN THE OVERALL PTRN....HIGHER TEMPS IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BIG-PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN AT PLAY FOR
THE EXTENDED PTN OF THE FCST AS IN PREV MODEL CYCLES.

A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRNTL ZN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS MON NGT...AND QUT PSBLY INTO TUE.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...UPR-LVL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY WX IS
FORESEEN WED-THU...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED VFR SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON... THEN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO TRANSITION OVER TO MVFR THUNDERSTORMS.
TRIED TO CAPTURE WHEN TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PLACED IN A 4 HR
TEMPO GROUP. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ATTM ON ON TIMING
THUS JUST KEPT THE TEMPO.

A STEADIER BAND OF PRECIP ALONG A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AFTER 03Z SUNDAY... AND MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW. THERE ARE LARGE DISCREPANCY WITHIN
GUIDANCE ON WHEN THE FROPA WILL BE. WENT WITH A MIDDLE GROUND
SOLUTION AROUND 05Z.

WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 KNOTS AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT... WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/PCF
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 300626
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
226 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SAME
SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEENED AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

COMPLEX AND SLOW MVG SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF CST
WILL BEGIN THE AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. APRCHG SFC BNDRY DROPPING
THRU THE LAKES WILL PROVIDE LL CONV AND BE THE FOCUS OF THE PCPN
TODAY. STRENGTHENING UPR LVL JET WILL PROVIDE DIVERGENT FLOW AND
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE...RAIN WILL BRK OUT DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE FNT PARALLEL WITH THE UPR FLOW...PSN OF THE FNT DFCLT TO FCST
AND KEY TO THE RAIN AND TSTMS EARLY ON. FOR NOW...BEST CHANCE WILL
BE ACROSS THE WRN ZONES TODAY...ALTHOUGH RIPPLE PASSING THRU IN
THE FLOW PRBLY BRING AT LEAST A PD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA.

WITH PWATS BETTER THAN AN INCH AND A HALF OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...AND LTL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN FLOW...CONCRN FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IN TRAINING CELLS CONTS TODAY. AS USUAL...NAM HAS
CNSRBLY MORE CAPE THAN OTR MODELS AND LIKELY OVERDOING AMTS BY AT
LEAST DOUBLE. SPS CONTS THE MRGNL SVR FCST AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF HTG...AND LTL SHEAR WITHIN THE
PROFILE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

WET FCST CONTS WITH POOR AGREEMENT IN THE MDOELS ON TIMING AND PSN
OF KEY FEATURES...LEADING LOW CONFIDENCE OF THE DETAILS. FOR
STARTERS...TEMP FCST TRICKY AS THE FNT COULD LIKELY BE DRAPED THRU
THE FCST AREA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE PD LDG TO A 10 - 15 DEGREE
OR BETTER DFRNC IN TEMPS.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FNT PASSES THRU MUCH OF THE AREA LAT SAT OR
EARLY SUN...BUT THEN A SIGNIFICANT WV APRCHG STALLS THE FNT AND
MAY EVEN LIFT IT BACK NWRD LTR SUN AND EARLY MON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA INTO MON.

HAVE DECIDED THAT THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET WILL BE TO BE LESS
SPECIFIC WITH THE POPS AND GO WITH A MORE GNRL LIKELY POP WITH
INCRSD CHANCE OF CONV IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...NEARER THE MOST
LIKELY PSN OF THE FNT.

SIGNIFICANT DFRNCS IN MODEL TEMP GUID BUT WITH A BASIC AGREEMENT
IN THE OVERALL PTRN....HIGHER TEMPS IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BIG-PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN AT PLAY FOR
THE EXTENDED PTN OF THE FCST AS IN PREV MODEL CYCLES.

A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRNTL ZN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS MON NGT...AND QUT PSBLY INTO TUE.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...UPR-LVL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY WX IS
FORESEEN WED-THU...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED VFR SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON... THEN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO TRANSITION OVER TO MVFR THUNDERSTORMS.
TRIED TO CAPTURE WHEN TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PLACED IN A 4 HR
TEMPO GROUP. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ATTM ON ON TIMING
THUS JUST KEPT THE TEMPO.

A STEADIER BAND OF PRECIP ALONG A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AFTER 03Z SUNDAY... AND MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW. THERE ARE LARGE DISCREPANCY WITHIN
GUIDANCE ON WHEN THE FROPA WILL BE. WENT WITH A MIDDLE GROUND
SOLUTION AROUND 05Z.

WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 KNOTS AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT... WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/PCF
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 300552
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
152 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WILL REACH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. COOL,
DAMP WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
THERE IS THE RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TONIGHT
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF SOME
DYING THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO MOVE IN. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MILD AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, TEMPS, AND DEW POINTS FOR TONIGHT WERE
MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THOUGH TIMING CONTINUES TO LOOK SLOWER AND SLOWER PER LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SAT TRENDS.

AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER FRONT AND THE ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF THE COLD FRONT / PRECIP AREA...THINK WE COULD GET WARM AHEAD OF
THE PRECIPITATION, EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BCMET PUSHES SYR
TO 86F SAT AFTERNOON, WITH BCMAV SUGGESTING 88F. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR CAPES IN THE 600-1000 J/KG RANGE. 0-6M BULK
SHEAR IS MODEST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT INCREASES TO 25-30 KTS BY
SUNSET. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR PWATS (1.40-1.60) AND HEAVY RAINERS,
THOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION COULD USE A SOAKING.

COOL TROF SETS UP SHOP ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BARELY HITTING 60F IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROF, ALONG
WITH LOW, THICK CLOUDINESS.

SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BIG-PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN AT PLAY FOR
THE EXTENDED PTN OF THE FCST AS IN PREV MODEL CYCLES.

A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRNTL ZN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS MON NGT...AND QUT PSBLY INTO TUE.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...UPR-LVL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY WX IS
FORESEEN WED-THU...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED VFR SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON... THEN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO TRANSITION OVER TO MVFR THUNDERSTORMS.
TRIED TO CAPTURE WHEN TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PLACED IN A 4 HR
TEMPO GROUP. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ATTM ON ON TIMING
THUS JUST KEPT THE TEMPO.

A STEADIER BAND OF PRECIP ALONG A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AFTER 03Z SUNDAY... AND MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW. THERE ARE LARGE DISCREPANCY WITHIN
GUIDANCE ON WHEN THE FROPA WILL BE. WENT WITH A MIDDLE GROUND
SOLUTION AROUND 05Z.

WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 KNOTS AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT... WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 300552
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
152 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WILL REACH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. COOL,
DAMP WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
THERE IS THE RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TONIGHT
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF SOME
DYING THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO MOVE IN. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MILD AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, TEMPS, AND DEW POINTS FOR TONIGHT WERE
MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THOUGH TIMING CONTINUES TO LOOK SLOWER AND SLOWER PER LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SAT TRENDS.

AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER FRONT AND THE ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF THE COLD FRONT / PRECIP AREA...THINK WE COULD GET WARM AHEAD OF
THE PRECIPITATION, EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BCMET PUSHES SYR
TO 86F SAT AFTERNOON, WITH BCMAV SUGGESTING 88F. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR CAPES IN THE 600-1000 J/KG RANGE. 0-6M BULK
SHEAR IS MODEST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT INCREASES TO 25-30 KTS BY
SUNSET. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR PWATS (1.40-1.60) AND HEAVY RAINERS,
THOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION COULD USE A SOAKING.

COOL TROF SETS UP SHOP ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BARELY HITTING 60F IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROF, ALONG
WITH LOW, THICK CLOUDINESS.

SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BIG-PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN AT PLAY FOR
THE EXTENDED PTN OF THE FCST AS IN PREV MODEL CYCLES.

A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRNTL ZN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS MON NGT...AND QUT PSBLY INTO TUE.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...UPR-LVL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY WX IS
FORESEEN WED-THU...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED VFR SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON... THEN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO TRANSITION OVER TO MVFR THUNDERSTORMS.
TRIED TO CAPTURE WHEN TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PLACED IN A 4 HR
TEMPO GROUP. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ATTM ON ON TIMING
THUS JUST KEPT THE TEMPO.

A STEADIER BAND OF PRECIP ALONG A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AFTER 03Z SUNDAY... AND MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW. THERE ARE LARGE DISCREPANCY WITHIN
GUIDANCE ON WHEN THE FROPA WILL BE. WENT WITH A MIDDLE GROUND
SOLUTION AROUND 05Z.

WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 KNOTS AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT... WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 300552
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
152 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WILL REACH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. COOL,
DAMP WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
THERE IS THE RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TONIGHT
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF SOME
DYING THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO MOVE IN. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MILD AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, TEMPS, AND DEW POINTS FOR TONIGHT WERE
MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THOUGH TIMING CONTINUES TO LOOK SLOWER AND SLOWER PER LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SAT TRENDS.

AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER FRONT AND THE ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF THE COLD FRONT / PRECIP AREA...THINK WE COULD GET WARM AHEAD OF
THE PRECIPITATION, EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BCMET PUSHES SYR
TO 86F SAT AFTERNOON, WITH BCMAV SUGGESTING 88F. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR CAPES IN THE 600-1000 J/KG RANGE. 0-6M BULK
SHEAR IS MODEST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT INCREASES TO 25-30 KTS BY
SUNSET. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR PWATS (1.40-1.60) AND HEAVY RAINERS,
THOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION COULD USE A SOAKING.

COOL TROF SETS UP SHOP ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BARELY HITTING 60F IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROF, ALONG
WITH LOW, THICK CLOUDINESS.

SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BIG-PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN AT PLAY FOR
THE EXTENDED PTN OF THE FCST AS IN PREV MODEL CYCLES.

A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRNTL ZN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS MON NGT...AND QUT PSBLY INTO TUE.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...UPR-LVL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY WX IS
FORESEEN WED-THU...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED VFR SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON... THEN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO TRANSITION OVER TO MVFR THUNDERSTORMS.
TRIED TO CAPTURE WHEN TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PLACED IN A 4 HR
TEMPO GROUP. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ATTM ON ON TIMING
THUS JUST KEPT THE TEMPO.

A STEADIER BAND OF PRECIP ALONG A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AFTER 03Z SUNDAY... AND MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW. THERE ARE LARGE DISCREPANCY WITHIN
GUIDANCE ON WHEN THE FROPA WILL BE. WENT WITH A MIDDLE GROUND
SOLUTION AROUND 05Z.

WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 KNOTS AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT... WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 300552
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
152 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WILL REACH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. COOL,
DAMP WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
THERE IS THE RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TONIGHT
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF SOME
DYING THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO MOVE IN. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MILD AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, TEMPS, AND DEW POINTS FOR TONIGHT WERE
MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THOUGH TIMING CONTINUES TO LOOK SLOWER AND SLOWER PER LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SAT TRENDS.

AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER FRONT AND THE ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF THE COLD FRONT / PRECIP AREA...THINK WE COULD GET WARM AHEAD OF
THE PRECIPITATION, EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BCMET PUSHES SYR
TO 86F SAT AFTERNOON, WITH BCMAV SUGGESTING 88F. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR CAPES IN THE 600-1000 J/KG RANGE. 0-6M BULK
SHEAR IS MODEST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT INCREASES TO 25-30 KTS BY
SUNSET. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR PWATS (1.40-1.60) AND HEAVY RAINERS,
THOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION COULD USE A SOAKING.

COOL TROF SETS UP SHOP ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BARELY HITTING 60F IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROF, ALONG
WITH LOW, THICK CLOUDINESS.

SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BIG-PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN AT PLAY FOR
THE EXTENDED PTN OF THE FCST AS IN PREV MODEL CYCLES.

A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRNTL ZN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS MON NGT...AND QUT PSBLY INTO TUE.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...UPR-LVL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY WX IS
FORESEEN WED-THU...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED VFR SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON... THEN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO TRANSITION OVER TO MVFR THUNDERSTORMS.
TRIED TO CAPTURE WHEN TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PLACED IN A 4 HR
TEMPO GROUP. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ATTM ON ON TIMING
THUS JUST KEPT THE TEMPO.

A STEADIER BAND OF PRECIP ALONG A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AFTER 03Z SUNDAY... AND MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW. THERE ARE LARGE DISCREPANCY WITHIN
GUIDANCE ON WHEN THE FROPA WILL BE. WENT WITH A MIDDLE GROUND
SOLUTION AROUND 05Z.

WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 KNOTS AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT... WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 300250
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1050 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WILL REACH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. COOL,
DAMP WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
THERE IS THE RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TONIGHT
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF SOME
DYING THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO MOVE IN. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MILD AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, TEMPS, AND DEW POINTS FOR TONIGHT WERE
MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THOUGH TIMING CONTINUES TO LOOK SLOWER AND SLOWER PER LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SAT TRENDS.

AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER FRONT AND THE ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF THE COLD FRONT / PRECIP AREA...THINK WE COULD GET WARM AHEAD OF
THE PRECIPITATION, EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BCMET PUSHES SYR
TO 86F SAT AFTERNOON, WITH BCMAV SUGGESTING 88F. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR CAPES IN THE 600-1000 J/KG RANGE. 0-6M BULK
SHEAR IS MODEST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT INCREASES TO 25-30 KTS BY
SUNSET. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR PWATS (1.40-1.60) AND HEAVY RAINERS,
THOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION COULD USE A SOAKING.

COOL TROF SETS UP SHOP ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BARELY HITTING 60F IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROF, ALONG
WITH LOW, THICK CLOUDINESS.

SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BIG-PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN AT PLAY FOR
THE EXTENDED PTN OF THE FCST AS IN PREV MODEL CYCLES.

A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRNTL ZN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS MON NGT...AND QUT PSBLY INTO TUE.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...UPR-LVL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY WX IS
FORESEEN WED-THU...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE MOST LIKELY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS AT KAVP...WHERE A BRIEF PD
OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY`S IN BR IS PSBL TWDS DAYBREAK SAT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS. SINCE THIS IS STILL
18 TO 24 HOURS OUT AND SO A LITTLE EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ON DETAILS
THIS HAS BEEN INDICATED BY A PROB30 GROUP IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

S TO SE SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WILL TURN
SWLY ON SAT...AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...RESTRICTIVE CONDS LIKELY DVLPG AREA-WIDE IN SHWRS/LWR
CIGS.

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 300250
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1050 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WILL REACH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. COOL,
DAMP WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
THERE IS THE RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TONIGHT
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF SOME
DYING THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO MOVE IN. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MILD AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, TEMPS, AND DEW POINTS FOR TONIGHT WERE
MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THOUGH TIMING CONTINUES TO LOOK SLOWER AND SLOWER PER LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SAT TRENDS.

AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER FRONT AND THE ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF THE COLD FRONT / PRECIP AREA...THINK WE COULD GET WARM AHEAD OF
THE PRECIPITATION, EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BCMET PUSHES SYR
TO 86F SAT AFTERNOON, WITH BCMAV SUGGESTING 88F. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR CAPES IN THE 600-1000 J/KG RANGE. 0-6M BULK
SHEAR IS MODEST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT INCREASES TO 25-30 KTS BY
SUNSET. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR PWATS (1.40-1.60) AND HEAVY RAINERS,
THOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION COULD USE A SOAKING.

COOL TROF SETS UP SHOP ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BARELY HITTING 60F IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROF, ALONG
WITH LOW, THICK CLOUDINESS.

SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BIG-PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN AT PLAY FOR
THE EXTENDED PTN OF THE FCST AS IN PREV MODEL CYCLES.

A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRNTL ZN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS MON NGT...AND QUT PSBLY INTO TUE.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...UPR-LVL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY WX IS
FORESEEN WED-THU...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE MOST LIKELY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS AT KAVP...WHERE A BRIEF PD
OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY`S IN BR IS PSBL TWDS DAYBREAK SAT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS. SINCE THIS IS STILL
18 TO 24 HOURS OUT AND SO A LITTLE EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ON DETAILS
THIS HAS BEEN INDICATED BY A PROB30 GROUP IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

S TO SE SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WILL TURN
SWLY ON SAT...AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...RESTRICTIVE CONDS LIKELY DVLPG AREA-WIDE IN SHWRS/LWR
CIGS.

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 292348
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
748 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WILL REACH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. COOL,
DAMP WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE SHOWER/THUNDER PER THE LATEST ECMWF AND NAM
GUIDANCE. KEPT TO CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN FA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MODELS HINT AT A MARINE LAYER APPROACHING LATE OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY
REACHING AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE TWIN TIERS. AT THIS POINT, WILL
PLAY INCREASED CLOUD COVER RATHER THAN FOG.

1020 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE THIS MORNING. ALSO REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY, THINKING THAT IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THOUGH TIMING CONTINUES TO LOOK SLOWER AND SLOWER PER LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SAT TRENDS.

AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER FRONT AND THE ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF THE COLD FRONT / PRECIP AREA...THINK WE COULD GET WARM AHEAD OF
THE PRECIPITATION, EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BCMET PUSHES SYR
TO 86F SAT AFTERNOON, WITH BCMAV SUGGESTING 88F. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR CAPES IN THE 600-1000 J/KG RANGE. 0-6M BULK
SHEAR IS MODEST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT INCREASES TO 25-30 KTS BY
SUNSET. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR PWATS (1.40-1.60) AND HEAVY RAINERS,
THOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION COULD USE A SOAKING.

COOL TROF SETS UP SHOP ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BARELY HITTING 60F IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROF, ALONG
WITH LOW, THICK CLOUDINESS.

SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BIG-PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN AT PLAY FOR
THE EXTENDED PTN OF THE FCST AS IN PREV MODEL CYCLES.

A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRNTL ZN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS MON NGT...AND QUT PSBLY INTO TUE.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...UPR-LVL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY WX IS
FORESEEN WED-THU...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE MOST LIKELY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS AT KAVP...WHERE A BRIEF PD
OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY`S IN BR IS PSBL TWDS DAYBREAK SAT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS. SINCE THIS IS STILL
18 TO 24 HOURS OUT AND SO A LITTLE EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ON DETAILS
THIS HAS BEEN INDICATED BY A PROB30 GROUP IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

S TO SE SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WILL TURN
SWLY ON SAT...AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...RESTRICTIVE CONDS LIKELY DVLPG AREA-WIDE IN SHWRS/LWR
CIGS.

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 292348
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
748 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WILL REACH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. COOL,
DAMP WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE SHOWER/THUNDER PER THE LATEST ECMWF AND NAM
GUIDANCE. KEPT TO CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN FA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MODELS HINT AT A MARINE LAYER APPROACHING LATE OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY
REACHING AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE TWIN TIERS. AT THIS POINT, WILL
PLAY INCREASED CLOUD COVER RATHER THAN FOG.

1020 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE THIS MORNING. ALSO REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY, THINKING THAT IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THOUGH TIMING CONTINUES TO LOOK SLOWER AND SLOWER PER LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SAT TRENDS.

AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER FRONT AND THE ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF THE COLD FRONT / PRECIP AREA...THINK WE COULD GET WARM AHEAD OF
THE PRECIPITATION, EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BCMET PUSHES SYR
TO 86F SAT AFTERNOON, WITH BCMAV SUGGESTING 88F. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR CAPES IN THE 600-1000 J/KG RANGE. 0-6M BULK
SHEAR IS MODEST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT INCREASES TO 25-30 KTS BY
SUNSET. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR PWATS (1.40-1.60) AND HEAVY RAINERS,
THOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION COULD USE A SOAKING.

COOL TROF SETS UP SHOP ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BARELY HITTING 60F IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROF, ALONG
WITH LOW, THICK CLOUDINESS.

SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BIG-PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN AT PLAY FOR
THE EXTENDED PTN OF THE FCST AS IN PREV MODEL CYCLES.

A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRNTL ZN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS MON NGT...AND QUT PSBLY INTO TUE.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...UPR-LVL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY WX IS
FORESEEN WED-THU...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE MOST LIKELY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS AT KAVP...WHERE A BRIEF PD
OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY`S IN BR IS PSBL TWDS DAYBREAK SAT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS. SINCE THIS IS STILL
18 TO 24 HOURS OUT AND SO A LITTLE EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ON DETAILS
THIS HAS BEEN INDICATED BY A PROB30 GROUP IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

S TO SE SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WILL TURN
SWLY ON SAT...AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...RESTRICTIVE CONDS LIKELY DVLPG AREA-WIDE IN SHWRS/LWR
CIGS.

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 292348
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
748 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WILL REACH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. COOL,
DAMP WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE SHOWER/THUNDER PER THE LATEST ECMWF AND NAM
GUIDANCE. KEPT TO CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN FA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MODELS HINT AT A MARINE LAYER APPROACHING LATE OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY
REACHING AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE TWIN TIERS. AT THIS POINT, WILL
PLAY INCREASED CLOUD COVER RATHER THAN FOG.

1020 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE THIS MORNING. ALSO REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY, THINKING THAT IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THOUGH TIMING CONTINUES TO LOOK SLOWER AND SLOWER PER LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SAT TRENDS.

AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER FRONT AND THE ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF THE COLD FRONT / PRECIP AREA...THINK WE COULD GET WARM AHEAD OF
THE PRECIPITATION, EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BCMET PUSHES SYR
TO 86F SAT AFTERNOON, WITH BCMAV SUGGESTING 88F. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR CAPES IN THE 600-1000 J/KG RANGE. 0-6M BULK
SHEAR IS MODEST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT INCREASES TO 25-30 KTS BY
SUNSET. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR PWATS (1.40-1.60) AND HEAVY RAINERS,
THOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION COULD USE A SOAKING.

COOL TROF SETS UP SHOP ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BARELY HITTING 60F IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROF, ALONG
WITH LOW, THICK CLOUDINESS.

SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BIG-PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN AT PLAY FOR
THE EXTENDED PTN OF THE FCST AS IN PREV MODEL CYCLES.

A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRNTL ZN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS MON NGT...AND QUT PSBLY INTO TUE.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...UPR-LVL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY WX IS
FORESEEN WED-THU...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE MOST LIKELY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS AT KAVP...WHERE A BRIEF PD
OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY`S IN BR IS PSBL TWDS DAYBREAK SAT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS. SINCE THIS IS STILL
18 TO 24 HOURS OUT AND SO A LITTLE EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ON DETAILS
THIS HAS BEEN INDICATED BY A PROB30 GROUP IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

S TO SE SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WILL TURN
SWLY ON SAT...AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...RESTRICTIVE CONDS LIKELY DVLPG AREA-WIDE IN SHWRS/LWR
CIGS.

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 292348
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
748 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WILL REACH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. COOL,
DAMP WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE SHOWER/THUNDER PER THE LATEST ECMWF AND NAM
GUIDANCE. KEPT TO CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN FA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MODELS HINT AT A MARINE LAYER APPROACHING LATE OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY
REACHING AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE TWIN TIERS. AT THIS POINT, WILL
PLAY INCREASED CLOUD COVER RATHER THAN FOG.

1020 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE THIS MORNING. ALSO REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY, THINKING THAT IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THOUGH TIMING CONTINUES TO LOOK SLOWER AND SLOWER PER LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SAT TRENDS.

AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER FRONT AND THE ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF THE COLD FRONT / PRECIP AREA...THINK WE COULD GET WARM AHEAD OF
THE PRECIPITATION, EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BCMET PUSHES SYR
TO 86F SAT AFTERNOON, WITH BCMAV SUGGESTING 88F. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR CAPES IN THE 600-1000 J/KG RANGE. 0-6M BULK
SHEAR IS MODEST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT INCREASES TO 25-30 KTS BY
SUNSET. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR PWATS (1.40-1.60) AND HEAVY RAINERS,
THOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION COULD USE A SOAKING.

COOL TROF SETS UP SHOP ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BARELY HITTING 60F IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROF, ALONG
WITH LOW, THICK CLOUDINESS.

SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BIG-PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN AT PLAY FOR
THE EXTENDED PTN OF THE FCST AS IN PREV MODEL CYCLES.

A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRNTL ZN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS MON NGT...AND QUT PSBLY INTO TUE.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...UPR-LVL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY WX IS
FORESEEN WED-THU...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE MOST LIKELY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS AT KAVP...WHERE A BRIEF PD
OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY`S IN BR IS PSBL TWDS DAYBREAK SAT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS. SINCE THIS IS STILL
18 TO 24 HOURS OUT AND SO A LITTLE EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ON DETAILS
THIS HAS BEEN INDICATED BY A PROB30 GROUP IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

S TO SE SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WILL TURN
SWLY ON SAT...AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...RESTRICTIVE CONDS LIKELY DVLPG AREA-WIDE IN SHWRS/LWR
CIGS.

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 291835
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
235 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WILL REACH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. COOL,
DAMP WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE SHOWER/THUNDER PER THE LATEST ECMWF AND NAM
GUIDANCE. KEPT TO CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN FA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MODELS HINT AT A MARINE LAYER APPROACHING LATE OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY
REACHING AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE TWIN TIERS. AT THIS POINT, WILL
PLAY INCREASED CLOUD COVER RATHER THAN FOG.

1020 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE THIS MORNING. ALSO REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY, THINKING THAT IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THOUGH TIMING CONTINUES TO LOOK SLOWER AND SLOWER PER LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SAT TRENDS.

AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER FRONT AND THE ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF THE COLD FRONT / PRECIP AREA...THINK WE COULD GET WARM AHEAD OF
THE PRECIPITATION, EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BCMET PUSHES SYR
TO 86F SAT AFTERNOON, WITH BCMAV SUGGESTING 88F. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR CAPES IN THE 600-1000 J/KG RANGE. 0-6M BULK
SHEAR IS MODEST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT INCREASES TO 25-30 KTS BY
SUNSET. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR PWATS (1.40-1.60) AND HEAVY RAINERS,
THOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION COULD USE A SOAKING.

COOL TROF SETS UP SHOP ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BARELY HITTING 60F IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROF, ALONG
WITH LOW, THICK CLOUDINESS.

SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BIG-PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN AT PLAY FOR
THE EXTENDED PTN OF THE FCST AS IN PREV MODEL CYCLES.

A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRNTL ZN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS MON NGT...AND QUT PSBLY INTO TUE.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...UPR-LVL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY WX IS
FORESEEN WED-THU...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRI UPDATE... VFR IS EXPECTED. THE MOST LIKELY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS AT KAVP...WHERE A BRIEF PD OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY`S
IN BR IS PSBL TWDS DAYBREAK SAT.

AN AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS (PSBL RESTRICTIONS) MAY BE DVLPG IN THE
VICINITY OF KSYR AND KRME TWDS 18Z SAT. RIGHT NOW...UNCERTAIN
COVERAGE/TIMING...AND THE FACT THAT IT`S RIGHT AT THE END OF THE
VALID TAF PD...PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FCSTS.

S TO SE SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WILL TURN
SWLY ON SAT...AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...RESTRICTIVE CONDS LIKELY DVLPG AREA-WIDE IN SHWRS/LWR
CIGS.

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 291835
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
235 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WILL REACH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. COOL,
DAMP WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE SHOWER/THUNDER PER THE LATEST ECMWF AND NAM
GUIDANCE. KEPT TO CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN FA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MODELS HINT AT A MARINE LAYER APPROACHING LATE OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY
REACHING AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE TWIN TIERS. AT THIS POINT, WILL
PLAY INCREASED CLOUD COVER RATHER THAN FOG.

1020 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE THIS MORNING. ALSO REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY, THINKING THAT IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THOUGH TIMING CONTINUES TO LOOK SLOWER AND SLOWER PER LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SAT TRENDS.

AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER FRONT AND THE ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF THE COLD FRONT / PRECIP AREA...THINK WE COULD GET WARM AHEAD OF
THE PRECIPITATION, EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BCMET PUSHES SYR
TO 86F SAT AFTERNOON, WITH BCMAV SUGGESTING 88F. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR CAPES IN THE 600-1000 J/KG RANGE. 0-6M BULK
SHEAR IS MODEST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT INCREASES TO 25-30 KTS BY
SUNSET. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR PWATS (1.40-1.60) AND HEAVY RAINERS,
THOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION COULD USE A SOAKING.

COOL TROF SETS UP SHOP ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BARELY HITTING 60F IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROF, ALONG
WITH LOW, THICK CLOUDINESS.

SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BIG-PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN AT PLAY FOR
THE EXTENDED PTN OF THE FCST AS IN PREV MODEL CYCLES.

A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRNTL ZN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS MON NGT...AND QUT PSBLY INTO TUE.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...UPR-LVL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY WX IS
FORESEEN WED-THU...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRI UPDATE... VFR IS EXPECTED. THE MOST LIKELY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS AT KAVP...WHERE A BRIEF PD OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY`S
IN BR IS PSBL TWDS DAYBREAK SAT.

AN AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS (PSBL RESTRICTIONS) MAY BE DVLPG IN THE
VICINITY OF KSYR AND KRME TWDS 18Z SAT. RIGHT NOW...UNCERTAIN
COVERAGE/TIMING...AND THE FACT THAT IT`S RIGHT AT THE END OF THE
VALID TAF PD...PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FCSTS.

S TO SE SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WILL TURN
SWLY ON SAT...AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...RESTRICTIVE CONDS LIKELY DVLPG AREA-WIDE IN SHWRS/LWR
CIGS.

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 291832
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WILL REACH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. COOL,
DAMP WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE SHOWER/THUNDER PER THE LATEST ECMWF AND NAM
GUIDANCE. KEPT TO CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN FA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MODELS HINT AT A MARINE LAYER APPROACHING LATE OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY
REACHING AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE TWIN TIERS. AT THIS POINT, WILL
PLAY INCREASED CLOUD COVER RATHER THAN FOG.

1020 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE THIS MORNING. ALSO REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY, THINKING THAT IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THOUGH TIMING CONTINUES TO LOOK SLOWER AND SLOWER PER LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SAT TRENDS.

AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER FRONT AND THE ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF THE COLD FRONT / PRECIP AREA...THINK WE COULD GET WARM AHEAD OF
THE PRECIPITATION, EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BCMET PUSHES SYR
TO 86F SAT AFTERNOON, WITH BCMAV SUGGESTING 88F. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR CAPES IN THE 600-1000 J/KG RANGE. 0-6M BULK
SHEAR IS MODEST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT INCREASES TO 25-30 KTS BY
SUNSET. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR PWATS (1.40-1.60) AND HEAVY RAINERS,
THOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION COULD USE A SOAKING.

COOL TROF SETS UP SHOP ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BARELY HITTING 60F IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROF, ALONG
WITH LOW, THICK CLOUDINESS.

SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BIG-PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN AT PLAY FOR
THE EXTENDED PTN OF THE FCST AS IN PREV MODEL CYCLES.

A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRNTL ZN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS MON NGT...AND QUT PSBLY INTO TUE.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...UPR-LVL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO
BUILD MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS DIGS
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY WX IS
FORESEEN WED-THU...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRI UPDATE... VFR IS EXPECTED. THE MOST LIKELY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS AT KAVP...WHERE A BRIEF PD OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY`S
IN BR IS PSBL TWDS DAYBREAK SAT.

AN AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS (PSBL RESTRICTIONS) MAY BE DVLPG IN THE
VICINITY OF KSYR AND KRME TWDS 18Z SAT. RIGHT NOW...UNCERTAIN
COVERAGE/TIMING...AND THE FACT THAT IT`S RIGHT AT THE END OF THE
VALID TAF PD...PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FCSTS.

S TO SE SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WILL TURN
SWLY ON SAT...AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...RESTRICTIVE CONDS LIKELY DVLPG AREA-WIDE IN SHWRS/LWR
CIGS.

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 291832
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WILL REACH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. COOL,
DAMP WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE SHOWER/THUNDER PER THE LATEST ECMWF AND NAM
GUIDANCE. KEPT TO CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN FA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MODELS HINT AT A MARINE LAYER APPROACHING LATE OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY
REACHING AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE TWIN TIERS. AT THIS POINT, WILL
PLAY INCREASED CLOUD COVER RATHER THAN FOG.

1020 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE THIS MORNING. ALSO REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY, THINKING THAT IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THOUGH TIMING CONTINUES TO LOOK SLOWER AND SLOWER PER LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SAT TRENDS.

AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER FRONT AND THE ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF THE COLD FRONT / PRECIP AREA...THINK WE COULD GET WARM AHEAD OF
THE PRECIPITATION, EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BCMET PUSHES SYR
TO 86F SAT AFTERNOON, WITH BCMAV SUGGESTING 88F. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR CAPES IN THE 600-1000 J/KG RANGE. 0-6M BULK
SHEAR IS MODEST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT INCREASES TO 25-30 KTS BY
SUNSET. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR PWATS (1.40-1.60) AND HEAVY RAINERS,
THOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION COULD USE A SOAKING.

COOL TROF SETS UP SHOP ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BARELY HITTING 60F IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROF, ALONG
WITH LOW, THICK CLOUDINESS.

SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BIG-PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN AT PLAY FOR
THE EXTENDED PTN OF THE FCST AS IN PREV MODEL CYCLES.

A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRNTL ZN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS MON NGT...AND QUT PSBLY INTO TUE.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...UPR-LVL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO
BUILD MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS DIGS
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY WX IS
FORESEEN WED-THU...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRI UPDATE... VFR IS EXPECTED. THE MOST LIKELY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS AT KAVP...WHERE A BRIEF PD OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY`S
IN BR IS PSBL TWDS DAYBREAK SAT.

AN AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS (PSBL RESTRICTIONS) MAY BE DVLPG IN THE
VICINITY OF KSYR AND KRME TWDS 18Z SAT. RIGHT NOW...UNCERTAIN
COVERAGE/TIMING...AND THE FACT THAT IT`S RIGHT AT THE END OF THE
VALID TAF PD...PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FCSTS.

S TO SE SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WILL TURN
SWLY ON SAT...AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...RESTRICTIVE CONDS LIKELY DVLPG AREA-WIDE IN SHWRS/LWR
CIGS.

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 291832
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WILL REACH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. COOL,
DAMP WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE SHOWER/THUNDER PER THE LATEST ECMWF AND NAM
GUIDANCE. KEPT TO CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN FA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MODELS HINT AT A MARINE LAYER APPROACHING LATE OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY
REACHING AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE TWIN TIERS. AT THIS POINT, WILL
PLAY INCREASED CLOUD COVER RATHER THAN FOG.

1020 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE THIS MORNING. ALSO REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY, THINKING THAT IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THOUGH TIMING CONTINUES TO LOOK SLOWER AND SLOWER PER LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SAT TRENDS.

AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER FRONT AND THE ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF THE COLD FRONT / PRECIP AREA...THINK WE COULD GET WARM AHEAD OF
THE PRECIPITATION, EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BCMET PUSHES SYR
TO 86F SAT AFTERNOON, WITH BCMAV SUGGESTING 88F. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR CAPES IN THE 600-1000 J/KG RANGE. 0-6M BULK
SHEAR IS MODEST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT INCREASES TO 25-30 KTS BY
SUNSET. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR PWATS (1.40-1.60) AND HEAVY RAINERS,
THOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION COULD USE A SOAKING.

COOL TROF SETS UP SHOP ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BARELY HITTING 60F IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROF, ALONG
WITH LOW, THICK CLOUDINESS.

SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BIG-PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN AT PLAY FOR
THE EXTENDED PTN OF THE FCST AS IN PREV MODEL CYCLES.

A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRNTL ZN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS MON NGT...AND QUT PSBLY INTO TUE.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...UPR-LVL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO
BUILD MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS DIGS
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY WX IS
FORESEEN WED-THU...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRI UPDATE... VFR IS EXPECTED. THE MOST LIKELY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS AT KAVP...WHERE A BRIEF PD OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY`S
IN BR IS PSBL TWDS DAYBREAK SAT.

AN AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS (PSBL RESTRICTIONS) MAY BE DVLPG IN THE
VICINITY OF KSYR AND KRME TWDS 18Z SAT. RIGHT NOW...UNCERTAIN
COVERAGE/TIMING...AND THE FACT THAT IT`S RIGHT AT THE END OF THE
VALID TAF PD...PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FCSTS.

S TO SE SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WILL TURN
SWLY ON SAT...AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...RESTRICTIVE CONDS LIKELY DVLPG AREA-WIDE IN SHWRS/LWR
CIGS.

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 291807
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
207 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WILL REACH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. COOL,
DAMP WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE SHOWER/THUNDER PER THE LATEST ECMWF AND NAM
GUIDANCE. KEPT TO CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN FA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MODELS HINT AT A MARINE LAYER APPROACHING LATE OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY
REACHING AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE TWIN TIERS. AT THIS POINT, WILL
PLAY INCREASED CLOUD COVER RATHER THAN FOG.

1020 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE THIS MORNING. ALSO REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY, THINKING THAT IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THOUGH TIMING CONTINUES TO LOOK SLOWER AND SLOWER PER LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SAT TRENDS.

AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER FRONT AND THE ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF THE COLD FRONT / PRECIP AREA...THINK WE COULD GET WARM AHEAD OF
THE PRECIPITATION, EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BCMET PUSHES SYR
TO 86F SAT AFTERNOON, WITH BCMAV SUGGESTING 88F. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR CAPES IN THE 600-1000 J/KG RANGE. 0-6M BULK
SHEAR IS MODEST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT INCREASES TO 25-30 KTS BY
SUNSET. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR PWATS (1.40-1.60) AND HEAVY RAINERS,
THOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION COULD USE A SOAKING.

COOL TROF SETS UP SHOP ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BARELY HITTING 60F IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROF, ALONG
WITH LOW, THICK CLOUDINESS.

SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN NY. THE TROF WILL FILL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, AND BY
MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY
AND PA.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HANGING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE
THE RIDGE REBUILDS, THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL END AND
SUNNY/WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRI UPDATE... VFR IS EXPECTED. THE MOST LIKELY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS AT KAVP...WHERE A BRIEF PD OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY`S
IN BR IS PSBL TWDS DAYBREAK SAT.

AN AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS (PSBL RESTRICTIONS) MAY BE DVLPG IN THE
VICINITY OF KSYR AND KRME TWDS 18Z SAT. RIGHT NOW...UNCERTAIN
COVERAGE/TIMING...AND THE FACT THAT IT`S RIGHT AT THE END OF THE
VALID TAF PD...PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FCSTS.

S TO SE SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WILL TURN
SWLY ON SAT...AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...RESTRICTIVE CONDS LIKELY DVLPG AREA-WIDE IN SHWRS/LWR
CIGS.

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 291807
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
207 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WILL REACH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. COOL,
DAMP WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE SHOWER/THUNDER PER THE LATEST ECMWF AND NAM
GUIDANCE. KEPT TO CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN FA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MODELS HINT AT A MARINE LAYER APPROACHING LATE OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY
REACHING AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE TWIN TIERS. AT THIS POINT, WILL
PLAY INCREASED CLOUD COVER RATHER THAN FOG.

1020 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE THIS MORNING. ALSO REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY, THINKING THAT IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THOUGH TIMING CONTINUES TO LOOK SLOWER AND SLOWER PER LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SAT TRENDS.

AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER FRONT AND THE ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF THE COLD FRONT / PRECIP AREA...THINK WE COULD GET WARM AHEAD OF
THE PRECIPITATION, EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BCMET PUSHES SYR
TO 86F SAT AFTERNOON, WITH BCMAV SUGGESTING 88F. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR CAPES IN THE 600-1000 J/KG RANGE. 0-6M BULK
SHEAR IS MODEST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT INCREASES TO 25-30 KTS BY
SUNSET. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR PWATS (1.40-1.60) AND HEAVY RAINERS,
THOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION COULD USE A SOAKING.

COOL TROF SETS UP SHOP ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BARELY HITTING 60F IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROF, ALONG
WITH LOW, THICK CLOUDINESS.

SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN NY. THE TROF WILL FILL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, AND BY
MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY
AND PA.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HANGING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE
THE RIDGE REBUILDS, THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL END AND
SUNNY/WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRI UPDATE... VFR IS EXPECTED. THE MOST LIKELY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS AT KAVP...WHERE A BRIEF PD OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY`S
IN BR IS PSBL TWDS DAYBREAK SAT.

AN AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS (PSBL RESTRICTIONS) MAY BE DVLPG IN THE
VICINITY OF KSYR AND KRME TWDS 18Z SAT. RIGHT NOW...UNCERTAIN
COVERAGE/TIMING...AND THE FACT THAT IT`S RIGHT AT THE END OF THE
VALID TAF PD...PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FCSTS.

S TO SE SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WILL TURN
SWLY ON SAT...AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...RESTRICTIVE CONDS LIKELY DVLPG AREA-WIDE IN SHWRS/LWR
CIGS.

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 291750
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
150 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WILL REACH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. COOL,
DAMP WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE THIS MORNING. ALSO REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY, THINKING THAT IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST AND A BROAD UPPR
LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW FOR SEMI-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED INTO OUR REGION.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ALSO PLACE US WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTER FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING MULTIPLE WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK VORTICITY
MAXIMA WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON THIS BUT CAN NOT RULE IT OUT.

THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL START TO PROPAGATE EAST ON SAT INCREASING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON WHEN THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH.
THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT OR LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...THESE PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL... WHICH WILL CREATE A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL
EVENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

STILL EXPECTING AROUND A HALF AN INCH TOTAL FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN NY. THE TROF WILL FILL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, AND BY
MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY
AND PA.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HANGING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE
THE RIDGE REBUILDS, THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL END AND
SUNNY/WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRI UPDATE... VFR IS EXPECTED. THE MOST LIKELY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS AT KAVP...WHERE A BRIEF PD OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY`S
IN BR IS PSBL TWDS DAYBREAK SAT.

AN AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS (PSBL RESTRICTIONS) MAY BE DVLPG IN THE
VICINITY OF KSYR AND KRME TWDS 18Z SAT. RIGHT NOW...UNCERTAIN
COVERAGE/TIMING...AND THE FACT THAT IT`S RIGHT AT THE END OF THE
VALID TAF PD...PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FCSTS.

S TO SE SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WILL TURN
SWLY ON SAT...AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...RESTRICTIVE CONDS LIKELY DVLPG AREA-WIDE IN SHWRS/LWR
CIGS.

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 291750
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
150 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM ACROSS NY TONIGHT, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WILL REACH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. COOL,
DAMP WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE THIS MORNING. ALSO REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY, THINKING THAT IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST AND A BROAD UPPR
LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW FOR SEMI-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED INTO OUR REGION.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ALSO PLACE US WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTER FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING MULTIPLE WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK VORTICITY
MAXIMA WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON THIS BUT CAN NOT RULE IT OUT.

THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL START TO PROPAGATE EAST ON SAT INCREASING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON WHEN THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH.
THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT OR LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...THESE PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL... WHICH WILL CREATE A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL
EVENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

STILL EXPECTING AROUND A HALF AN INCH TOTAL FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN NY. THE TROF WILL FILL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, AND BY
MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY
AND PA.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HANGING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE
THE RIDGE REBUILDS, THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL END AND
SUNNY/WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRI UPDATE... VFR IS EXPECTED. THE MOST LIKELY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS AT KAVP...WHERE A BRIEF PD OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY`S
IN BR IS PSBL TWDS DAYBREAK SAT.

AN AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS (PSBL RESTRICTIONS) MAY BE DVLPG IN THE
VICINITY OF KSYR AND KRME TWDS 18Z SAT. RIGHT NOW...UNCERTAIN
COVERAGE/TIMING...AND THE FACT THAT IT`S RIGHT AT THE END OF THE
VALID TAF PD...PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FCSTS.

S TO SE SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WILL TURN
SWLY ON SAT...AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...RESTRICTIVE CONDS LIKELY DVLPG AREA-WIDE IN SHWRS/LWR
CIGS.

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 291730
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
130 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER
AND DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS
QUICKLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE THIS MORNING. ALSO REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY, THINKING THAT IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.


400 AM EDT UPDATE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT.
THIS COMBINATION HAVE RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT
RADIATIONAL  COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS IT WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY 00Z TONIGHT. WE
WILL BE INFLUENCED ENOUGH BY THE RIDGE TODAY THAT THROUGH 00Z
TONIGHT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST TODAY SFC
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN INDUCING WAA AND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST AND A BROAD UPPR
LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW FOR SEMI-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED INTO OUR REGION.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ALSO PLACE US WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTER FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING MULTIPLE WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK VORTICITY
MAXIMA WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON THIS BUT CAN NOT RULE IT OUT.

THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL START TO PROPAGATE EAST ON SAT INCREASING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON WHEN THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH.
THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT OR LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...THESE PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL... WHICH WILL CREATE A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL
EVENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

STILL EXPECTING AROUND A HALF AN INCH TOTAL FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN NY. THE TROF WILL FILL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, AND BY
MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY
AND PA.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HANGING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE
THE RIDGE REBUILDS, THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL END AND
SUNNY/WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRI UPDATE... VFR IS EXPECTED. THE MOST LIKELY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS AT KAVP...WHERE A BRIEF PD OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY`S
IN BR IS PSBL TWDS DAYBREAK SAT.

AN AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS (PSBL RESTRICTIONS) MAY BE DVLPG IN THE
VICINITY OF KSYR AND KRME TWDS 18Z SAT. RIGHT NOW...UNCERTAIN
COVERAGE/TIMING...AND THE FACT THAT IT`S RIGHT AT THE END OF THE
VALID TAF PD...PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FCSTS.

S TO SE SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WILL TURN
SWLY ON SAT...AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...RESTRICTIVE CONDS LIKELY DVLPG AREA-WIDE IN SHWRS/LWR
CIGS.

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 291730
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
130 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER
AND DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS
QUICKLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE THIS MORNING. ALSO REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY, THINKING THAT IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.


400 AM EDT UPDATE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT.
THIS COMBINATION HAVE RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT
RADIATIONAL  COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS IT WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY 00Z TONIGHT. WE
WILL BE INFLUENCED ENOUGH BY THE RIDGE TODAY THAT THROUGH 00Z
TONIGHT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST TODAY SFC
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN INDUCING WAA AND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST AND A BROAD UPPR
LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW FOR SEMI-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED INTO OUR REGION.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ALSO PLACE US WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTER FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING MULTIPLE WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK VORTICITY
MAXIMA WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON THIS BUT CAN NOT RULE IT OUT.

THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL START TO PROPAGATE EAST ON SAT INCREASING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON WHEN THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH.
THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT OR LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...THESE PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL... WHICH WILL CREATE A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL
EVENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

STILL EXPECTING AROUND A HALF AN INCH TOTAL FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN NY. THE TROF WILL FILL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, AND BY
MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY
AND PA.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HANGING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE
THE RIDGE REBUILDS, THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL END AND
SUNNY/WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRI UPDATE... VFR IS EXPECTED. THE MOST LIKELY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS AT KAVP...WHERE A BRIEF PD OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY`S
IN BR IS PSBL TWDS DAYBREAK SAT.

AN AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS (PSBL RESTRICTIONS) MAY BE DVLPG IN THE
VICINITY OF KSYR AND KRME TWDS 18Z SAT. RIGHT NOW...UNCERTAIN
COVERAGE/TIMING...AND THE FACT THAT IT`S RIGHT AT THE END OF THE
VALID TAF PD...PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FCSTS.

S TO SE SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WILL TURN
SWLY ON SAT...AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...RESTRICTIVE CONDS LIKELY DVLPG AREA-WIDE IN SHWRS/LWR
CIGS.

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 291420
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1020 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER
AND DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS
QUICKLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM UPDATE...
MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE THIS MORNING. ALSO REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY, THINKING THAT IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.


400 AM EDT UPDATE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT.
THIS COMBINATION HAVE RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT
RADIATIONAL  COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS IT WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY 00Z TONIGHT. WE
WILL BE INFLUENCED ENOUGH BY THE RIDGE TODAY THAT THROUGH 00Z
TONIGHT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST TODAY SFC
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN INDUCING WAA AND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST AND A BROAD UPPR
LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW FOR SEMI-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED INTO OUR REGION.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ALSO PLACE US WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTER FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING MULTIPLE WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK VORTICITY
MAXIMA WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON THIS BUT CAN NOT RULE IT OUT.

THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL START TO PROPAGATE EAST ON SAT INCREASING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON WHEN THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH.
THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT OR LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...THESE PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL... WHICH WILL CREATE A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL
EVENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

STILL EXPECTING AROUND A HALF AN INCH TOTAL FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN NY. THE TROF WILL FILL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, AND BY
MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY
AND PA.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HANGING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE
THE RIDGE REBUILDS, THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL END AND
SUNNY/WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DENSE VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
KELM NEAR AIRPORT MIN THROUGH 13Z BEFORE LIFTING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CI
TODAY AND A MID DECK DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z. ATTM IT
APPEARS THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SE TODAY AROUND 5-8 KNOTS
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...SHRA AND SCT TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.

SUN-MON...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 291050
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
650 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER
AND DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS
QUICKLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT.
THIS COMBINATION HAVE RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT
RADIATIONAL  COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS IT WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY 00Z TONIGHT. WE
WILL BE INFLUENCED ENOUGH BY THE RIDGE TODAY THAT THROUGH 00Z
TONIGHT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST TODAY SFC
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN INDUCING WAA AND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST AND A BROAD UPPR
LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW FOR SEMI-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED INTO OUR REGION.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ALSO PLACE US WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTER FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING MULTIPLE WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK VORTICITY
MAXIMA WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON THIS BUT CAN NOT RULE IT OUT.

THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL START TO PROPAGATE EAST ON SAT INCREASING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON WHEN THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH.
THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT OR LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...THESE PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL... WHICH WILL CREATE A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL
EVENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

STILL EXPECTING AROUND A HALF AN INCH TOTAL FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN NY. THE TROF WILL FILL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, AND BY
MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY
AND PA.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HANGING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE
THE RIDGE REBUILDS, THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL END AND
SUNNY/WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DENSE VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
KELM NEAR AIRPORT MIN THROUGH 13Z BEFORE LIFTING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CI
TODAY AND A MID DECK DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z. ATTM IT
APPEARS THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SE TODAY AROUND 5-8 KNOTS
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...SHRA AND SCT TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.

SUN-MON...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 290801
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
401 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER
AND DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS
QUICKLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT.
THIS COMBINATION HAVE RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT
RADIATIONAL  COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS IT WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY 00Z TONIGHT. WE
WILL BE INFLUENCED ENOUGH BY THE RIDGE TODAY THAT THROUGH 00Z
TONIGHT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST TODAY SFC
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN INDUCING WAA AND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST AND A BROAD UPPR
LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW FOR SEMI-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED INTO OUR REGION.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ALSO PLACE US WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTER FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING MULTIPLE WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK VORTICITY
MAXIMA WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON THIS BUT CAN NOT RULE IT OUT.

THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL START TO PROPAGATE EAST ON SAT INCREASING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON WHEN THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH.
THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT OR LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...THESE PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL... WHICH WILL CREATE A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL
EVENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

STILL EXPECTING AROUND A HALF AN INCH TOTAL FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN NY. THE TROF WILL FILL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, AND BY
MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY
AND PA.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HANGING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE
THE RIDGE REBUILDS, THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL END AND
SUNNY/WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS WITH SKC OR SCATTERED CI AS
SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER THE AREA. VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING WITH KELM FALLING BELOW ALT MIN BEGINNING AT 06Z WITH
CONDITIONS OCCASIONALLY CLOSE TO AIRPORT MIN BETWEEN 09Z-13Z.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SE TODAY AROUND 5 KNOTS THEN
S/SE OVERNIGHT AT 5-8 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...SHRA AND SCT TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.

SUN-MON...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 290801
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
401 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER
AND DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS
QUICKLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT.
THIS COMBINATION HAVE RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT
RADIATIONAL  COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS IT WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY 00Z TONIGHT. WE
WILL BE INFLUENCED ENOUGH BY THE RIDGE TODAY THAT THROUGH 00Z
TONIGHT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST TODAY SFC
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN INDUCING WAA AND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST AND A BROAD UPPR
LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW FOR SEMI-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED INTO OUR REGION.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ALSO PLACE US WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTER FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING MULTIPLE WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK VORTICITY
MAXIMA WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON THIS BUT CAN NOT RULE IT OUT.

THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL START TO PROPAGATE EAST ON SAT INCREASING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON WHEN THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH.
THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT OR LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...THESE PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL... WHICH WILL CREATE A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL
EVENT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

STILL EXPECTING AROUND A HALF AN INCH TOTAL FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN NY. THE TROF WILL FILL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, AND BY
MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY
AND PA.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HANGING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE
THE RIDGE REBUILDS, THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL END AND
SUNNY/WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS WITH SKC OR SCATTERED CI AS
SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER THE AREA. VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING WITH KELM FALLING BELOW ALT MIN BEGINNING AT 06Z WITH
CONDITIONS OCCASIONALLY CLOSE TO AIRPORT MIN BETWEEN 09Z-13Z.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SE TODAY AROUND 5 KNOTS THEN
S/SE OVERNIGHT AT 5-8 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...SHRA AND SCT TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.

SUN-MON...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 290555
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
155 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL MEAN COOLER,
AND LESS HUMID AIR THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
RETURNS QUICKLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
745 PM EDT UPDATE...
FORECAST TWEAKED JUST SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS. WITH THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...I DID ADJUST SOME OF OUR
COLD DRAINAGE VALLEYS A BIT LOWER FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS EASILY
INTO THE MID-UPR 50S...IF NOT COLDER. WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE OUTLYING COLDEST ELEVATED VALLEY
SPOTS TO DIP INTO THE 40S. WE DO HAVE SOME OF THE FORECAST GRID
POINTS TOUCHING 50 HERE AND THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICK TO EXIT THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MILDER
S-SW FLOW RETURNING ALOFT. MODELS IN A BIT OF FLUX BY LATE IN THE
DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NAM SEEMS MOST
BULLISH AT DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA UP INTO NEPA AND THE SRN TIER NY
BY 00Z SATURDAY. TEND TO THINK THAT CONVECTIVE INDUCTION WILL BE
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN PA...SO FOR THIS REGION JUST A
MAINLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY IS IN ORDER.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A DIURNAL TREND TO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...HOWEVER MOST MODELS DO SUGGEST A PATTERN
THAT WILL HAVE SUBTLE FAST MOVING WAVES TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OR THUNDER
SO HAVE BEEN COMPELLED TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

THEN...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FEATURES A WARM SEMI-TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO A SLOW...SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT
SUPPORTED BY A BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROF ADVANCING ACROSS
SOUTHERN-EASTERN CANADA. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION
OF THE SFC FRONT WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WE HAVE ALSO HELD BACK ON
ADVANCING POPS THROUGH THE REGION NOW WELL INTO SUNDAY. COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE GREATEST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL NW-SE TREND OF THE BROAD AREA
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING CHANCES
ACROSS NEPA AND SE NY LATE IN THE DAY. SREF ENSEMBLES DO SUGGEST
REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN QPF AMOUNTS POSSIBLY OVER A HALF INCH FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH ACTUALLY WOULD BE A WELCOME
RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM PRECIPITATION
IS LACKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN NY. THE TROF WILL FILL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, AND BY
MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY
AND PA.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HANGING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE
THE RIDGE REBUILDS, THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL END AND
SUNNY/WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS WITH SKC OR SCATTERED CI AS
SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER THE AREA. VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING WITH KELM FALLING BELOW ALT MIN BEGINNING AT 06Z WITH
CONDITIONS OCCASIONALLY CLOSE TO AIRPORT MIN BETWEEN 09Z-13Z.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SE TODAY AROUND 5 KNOTS THEN
S/SE OVERNIGHT AT 5-8 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...SHRA AND SCT TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.

SUN-MON...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB/MDP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 290555
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
155 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL MEAN COOLER,
AND LESS HUMID AIR THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
RETURNS QUICKLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
745 PM EDT UPDATE...
FORECAST TWEAKED JUST SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS. WITH THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...I DID ADJUST SOME OF OUR
COLD DRAINAGE VALLEYS A BIT LOWER FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS EASILY
INTO THE MID-UPR 50S...IF NOT COLDER. WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE OUTLYING COLDEST ELEVATED VALLEY
SPOTS TO DIP INTO THE 40S. WE DO HAVE SOME OF THE FORECAST GRID
POINTS TOUCHING 50 HERE AND THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICK TO EXIT THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MILDER
S-SW FLOW RETURNING ALOFT. MODELS IN A BIT OF FLUX BY LATE IN THE
DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NAM SEEMS MOST
BULLISH AT DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA UP INTO NEPA AND THE SRN TIER NY
BY 00Z SATURDAY. TEND TO THINK THAT CONVECTIVE INDUCTION WILL BE
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN PA...SO FOR THIS REGION JUST A
MAINLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY IS IN ORDER.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A DIURNAL TREND TO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...HOWEVER MOST MODELS DO SUGGEST A PATTERN
THAT WILL HAVE SUBTLE FAST MOVING WAVES TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OR THUNDER
SO HAVE BEEN COMPELLED TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

THEN...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FEATURES A WARM SEMI-TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO A SLOW...SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT
SUPPORTED BY A BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROF ADVANCING ACROSS
SOUTHERN-EASTERN CANADA. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION
OF THE SFC FRONT WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WE HAVE ALSO HELD BACK ON
ADVANCING POPS THROUGH THE REGION NOW WELL INTO SUNDAY. COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE GREATEST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL NW-SE TREND OF THE BROAD AREA
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING CHANCES
ACROSS NEPA AND SE NY LATE IN THE DAY. SREF ENSEMBLES DO SUGGEST
REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN QPF AMOUNTS POSSIBLY OVER A HALF INCH FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH ACTUALLY WOULD BE A WELCOME
RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM PRECIPITATION
IS LACKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN NY. THE TROF WILL FILL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, AND BY
MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY
AND PA.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HANGING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE
THE RIDGE REBUILDS, THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL END AND
SUNNY/WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS WITH SKC OR SCATTERED CI AS
SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER THE AREA. VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING WITH KELM FALLING BELOW ALT MIN BEGINNING AT 06Z WITH
CONDITIONS OCCASIONALLY CLOSE TO AIRPORT MIN BETWEEN 09Z-13Z.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SE TODAY AROUND 5 KNOTS THEN
S/SE OVERNIGHT AT 5-8 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...SHRA AND SCT TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.

SUN-MON...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB/MDP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 290001
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
801 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL MEAN COOLER,
AND LESS HUMID AIR THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
RETURNS QUICKLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
745 PM EDT UPDATE...
FORECAST TWEAKED JUST SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS. WITH THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...I DID ADJUST SOME OF OUR
COLD DRAINAGE VALLEYS A BIT LOWER FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS EASILY
INTO THE MID-UPR 50S...IF NOT COLDER. WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE OUTLYING COLDEST ELEVATED VALLEY
SPOTS TO DIP INTO THE 40S. WE DO HAVE SOME OF THE FORECAST GRID
POINTS TOUCHING 50 HERE AND THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICK TO EXIT THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MILDER
S-SW FLOW RETURNING ALOFT. MODELS IN A BIT OF FLUX BY LATE IN THE
DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NAM SEEMS MOST
BULLISH AT DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA UP INTO NEPA AND THE SRN TIER NY
BY 00Z SATURDAY. TEND TO THINK THAT CONVECTIVE INDUCTION WILL BE
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN PA...SO FOR THIS REGION JUST A
MAINLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY IS IN ORDER.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A DIURNAL TREND TO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...HOWEVER MOST MODELS DO SUGGEST A PATTERN
THAT WILL HAVE SUBTLE FAST MOVING WAVES TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OR THUNDER
SO HAVE BEEN COMPELLED TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

THEN...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FEATURES A WARM SEMI-TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO A SLOW...SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT
SUPPORTED BY A BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROF ADVANCING ACROSS
SOUTHERN-EASTERN CANADA. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION
OF THE SFC FRONT WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WE HAVE ALSO HELD BACK ON
ADVANCING POPS THROUGH THE REGION NOW WELL INTO SUNDAY. COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE GREATEST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL NW-SE TREND OF THE BROAD AREA
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING CHANCES
ACROSS NEPA AND SE NY LATE IN THE DAY. SREF ENSEMBLES DO SUGGEST
REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN QPF AMOUNTS POSSIBLY OVER A HALF INCH FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH ACTUALLY WOULD BE A WELCOME
RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM PRECIPITATION
IS LACKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN NY. THE TROF WILL FILL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, AND BY
MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY
AND PA.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HANGING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE
THE RIDGE REBUILDS, THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL END AND
SUNNY/WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS EXCEPT FOR VALLEY FOG CONCERNS.
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT TO CALM WIND OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW VALLEY FOG
TO DEVELOP. MOST CONFIDENT AT KELM 06Z ONWARD...AND ESPECIALLY
09Z-13Z PERIOD DURING WHICH CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR AIRPORT MINS
AT TIMES. EXPECTING LIGHTER MVFR MIST FOR KAVP...WITH AN EASTERLY
FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE PROVIDING ENOUGH DOWNSLOPING-STIRRING TO
PREVENT WORSE CONDITIONS. I DO NOT HAVE FOG IN TAF FOR KRME FOR
LACK OF CONFIDENCE...BUT MODEL SOUNDING SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL.
KBGM SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS SOME FOG POTENTIAL BUT THE DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE AREA SHOULD LIMIT FOG TO VALLEY LOCATIONS SO NO FOG IN
TAF. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WIND WILL BE PRIMARILY S-SSW 6-8 KTS
EXCEPT FOR SE KSYR- KRME.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...VFR.

SAT-SAT NGT...SHRA AND SCT TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.

SUN-MON...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB/MDP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 290001
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
801 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL MEAN COOLER,
AND LESS HUMID AIR THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
RETURNS QUICKLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
745 PM EDT UPDATE...
FORECAST TWEAKED JUST SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS. WITH THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...I DID ADJUST SOME OF OUR
COLD DRAINAGE VALLEYS A BIT LOWER FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS EASILY
INTO THE MID-UPR 50S...IF NOT COLDER. WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE OUTLYING COLDEST ELEVATED VALLEY
SPOTS TO DIP INTO THE 40S. WE DO HAVE SOME OF THE FORECAST GRID
POINTS TOUCHING 50 HERE AND THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICK TO EXIT THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MILDER
S-SW FLOW RETURNING ALOFT. MODELS IN A BIT OF FLUX BY LATE IN THE
DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NAM SEEMS MOST
BULLISH AT DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA UP INTO NEPA AND THE SRN TIER NY
BY 00Z SATURDAY. TEND TO THINK THAT CONVECTIVE INDUCTION WILL BE
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN PA...SO FOR THIS REGION JUST A
MAINLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY IS IN ORDER.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A DIURNAL TREND TO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...HOWEVER MOST MODELS DO SUGGEST A PATTERN
THAT WILL HAVE SUBTLE FAST MOVING WAVES TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OR THUNDER
SO HAVE BEEN COMPELLED TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

THEN...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FEATURES A WARM SEMI-TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO A SLOW...SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT
SUPPORTED BY A BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROF ADVANCING ACROSS
SOUTHERN-EASTERN CANADA. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION
OF THE SFC FRONT WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WE HAVE ALSO HELD BACK ON
ADVANCING POPS THROUGH THE REGION NOW WELL INTO SUNDAY. COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE GREATEST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL NW-SE TREND OF THE BROAD AREA
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING CHANCES
ACROSS NEPA AND SE NY LATE IN THE DAY. SREF ENSEMBLES DO SUGGEST
REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN QPF AMOUNTS POSSIBLY OVER A HALF INCH FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH ACTUALLY WOULD BE A WELCOME
RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM PRECIPITATION
IS LACKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN NY. THE TROF WILL FILL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, AND BY
MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY
AND PA.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HANGING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE
THE RIDGE REBUILDS, THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL END AND
SUNNY/WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS EXCEPT FOR VALLEY FOG CONCERNS.
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT TO CALM WIND OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW VALLEY FOG
TO DEVELOP. MOST CONFIDENT AT KELM 06Z ONWARD...AND ESPECIALLY
09Z-13Z PERIOD DURING WHICH CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR AIRPORT MINS
AT TIMES. EXPECTING LIGHTER MVFR MIST FOR KAVP...WITH AN EASTERLY
FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE PROVIDING ENOUGH DOWNSLOPING-STIRRING TO
PREVENT WORSE CONDITIONS. I DO NOT HAVE FOG IN TAF FOR KRME FOR
LACK OF CONFIDENCE...BUT MODEL SOUNDING SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL.
KBGM SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS SOME FOG POTENTIAL BUT THE DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE AREA SHOULD LIMIT FOG TO VALLEY LOCATIONS SO NO FOG IN
TAF. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WIND WILL BE PRIMARILY S-SSW 6-8 KTS
EXCEPT FOR SE KSYR- KRME.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...VFR.

SAT-SAT NGT...SHRA AND SCT TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.

SUN-MON...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB/MDP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 281856
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
256 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL MEAN COOLER,
AND LESS HUMID AIR THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
RETURNS QUICKLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS EASILY
INTO THE MID-UPR 50S...IF NOT COLDER. WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE OUTLYING COLDEST ELEVATED VALLEY
SPOTS TO DIP INTO THE 40S. WE DO HAVE SOME OF THE FORECAST GRID
POINTS TOUCHING 50 HERE AND THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICK TO EXIT THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MILDER
S-SW FLOW RETURNING ALOFT. MODELS IN A BIT OF FLUX BY LATE IN THE
DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NAM SEEMS MOST
BULLISH AT DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA UP INTO NEPA AND THE SRN TIER NY
BY 00Z SATURDAY. TEND TO THINK THAT CONVECTIVE INDUCTION WILL BE
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN PA...SO FOR THIS REGION JUST A
MAINLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY IS IN ORDER.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A DIURNAL TREND TO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...HOWEVER MOST MODELS DO SUGGEST A PATTERN
THAT WILL HAVE SUBTLE FAST MOVING WAVES TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OR THUNDER
SO HAVE BEEN COMPELLED TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

THEN...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FEATURES A WARM SEMI-TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO A SLOW...SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT
SUPPORTED BY A BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROF ADVANCING ACROSS
SOUTHERN-EASTERN CANADA. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION
OF THE SFC FRONT WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WE HAVE ALSO HELD BACK ON
ADVANCING POPS THROUGH THE REGION NOW WELL INTO SUNDAY. COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE GREATEST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL NW-SE TREND OF THE BROAD AREA
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING CHANCES
ACROSS NEPA AND SE NY LATE IN THE DAY. SREF ENSEMBLES DO SUGGEST
REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN QPF AMOUNTS POSSIBLY OVER A HALF INCH FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH ACTUALLY WOULD BE A WELCOME
RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM PRECIPITATION
IS LACKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN NY. THE TROF WILL FILL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, AND BY
MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY
AND PA.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HANGING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE
THE RIDGE REBUILDS, THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL END AND
SUNNY/WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER EASTERN NY...A FEW COUNTIES EAST
OF THE RME AND AVP TERMINALS. WE EXPECT THESE STORMS TO REMAIN
EAST OF OUR TERMINALS, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING.

WEST WINDS WILL GUST AT TIMES AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET, THEN
WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LIGHT FOG MAY FORM AT AVP AND
BGM, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG BETWEEN 9Z AND 13Z AT ELM.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 281856
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
256 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL MEAN COOLER,
AND LESS HUMID AIR THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
RETURNS QUICKLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS EASILY
INTO THE MID-UPR 50S...IF NOT COLDER. WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE OUTLYING COLDEST ELEVATED VALLEY
SPOTS TO DIP INTO THE 40S. WE DO HAVE SOME OF THE FORECAST GRID
POINTS TOUCHING 50 HERE AND THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICK TO EXIT THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MILDER
S-SW FLOW RETURNING ALOFT. MODELS IN A BIT OF FLUX BY LATE IN THE
DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NAM SEEMS MOST
BULLISH AT DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA UP INTO NEPA AND THE SRN TIER NY
BY 00Z SATURDAY. TEND TO THINK THAT CONVECTIVE INDUCTION WILL BE
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN PA...SO FOR THIS REGION JUST A
MAINLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY IS IN ORDER.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A DIURNAL TREND TO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...HOWEVER MOST MODELS DO SUGGEST A PATTERN
THAT WILL HAVE SUBTLE FAST MOVING WAVES TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OR THUNDER
SO HAVE BEEN COMPELLED TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

THEN...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FEATURES A WARM SEMI-TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO A SLOW...SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT
SUPPORTED BY A BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROF ADVANCING ACROSS
SOUTHERN-EASTERN CANADA. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION
OF THE SFC FRONT WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WE HAVE ALSO HELD BACK ON
ADVANCING POPS THROUGH THE REGION NOW WELL INTO SUNDAY. COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE GREATEST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL NW-SE TREND OF THE BROAD AREA
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING CHANCES
ACROSS NEPA AND SE NY LATE IN THE DAY. SREF ENSEMBLES DO SUGGEST
REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN QPF AMOUNTS POSSIBLY OVER A HALF INCH FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH ACTUALLY WOULD BE A WELCOME
RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM PRECIPITATION
IS LACKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN NY. THE TROF WILL FILL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, AND BY
MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY
AND PA.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HANGING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE
THE RIDGE REBUILDS, THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL END AND
SUNNY/WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER EASTERN NY...A FEW COUNTIES EAST
OF THE RME AND AVP TERMINALS. WE EXPECT THESE STORMS TO REMAIN
EAST OF OUR TERMINALS, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING.

WEST WINDS WILL GUST AT TIMES AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET, THEN
WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LIGHT FOG MAY FORM AT AVP AND
BGM, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG BETWEEN 9Z AND 13Z AT ELM.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 281734
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
134 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. COOLER, AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...COLD FRONT WAS BISECTING THE CWA AT THIS HOUR
WITH CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES.
HAVE CONTINUED TO REFINE SHRA/TSRA CHANCE AREAS TO JUST THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME FROM ABOUT 18Z-22Z
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER S/WV SUPPORT WAS OUTRUNNING THE SFC
FRONT...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT
ALL...MAINLY JUST ISOLD TO WDLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR PIKE-
WAYNE-LUZERNE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES. SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD THESE
AREAS IN MRGL RISK FOR SVR WX. SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE ARE TRENDS OF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION ONGOING SO A STRONG...
BRIEF PULSE EVENT CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...JUST
MASSAGED TEMPERATURES/DWPTS/WINDS/CLOUDS TO FIT LATEST TRENDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DEFINITELY COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE.

MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION INCREASING SOUTHWARD TO THE LOWER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL START TO DRIFT EAST DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY TO REMAIN DRY. EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z...THUS MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO
RETURN TO REGION. THIS WILL RESULT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE.

LARGE DISCREPANCY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON THE ONSET
AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND WHEN PRECIP WILL START OVER THE
REGION ON SAT. THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST... STARTING PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY THE NAM THEN THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ON
SAT FOR CONSISTENCY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
REGION LATE SAT NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD WILL DETERMINE
MIN TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPS DURING THE TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE UPPR 70S TO LOW
80S... AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S SAT AND MAY POSSIBLY FALL
INTO THE UPPR 40S OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN NY. THE TROF WILL FILL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, AND BY
MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY
AND PA.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HANGING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE
THE RIDGE REBUILDS, THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL END AND
SUNNY/WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER EASTERN NY...A FEW COUNTIES EAST
OF THE RME AND AVP TERMINALS. WE EXPECT THESE STORMS TO REMAIN
EAST OF OUR TERMINALS, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING.

WEST WINDS WILL GUST AT TIMES AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET, THEN
WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LIGHT FOG MAY FORM AT AVP AND
BGM, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG BETWEEN 9Z AND 13Z AT ELM.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...JAB/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 281734
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
134 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. COOLER, AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...COLD FRONT WAS BISECTING THE CWA AT THIS HOUR
WITH CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES.
HAVE CONTINUED TO REFINE SHRA/TSRA CHANCE AREAS TO JUST THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME FROM ABOUT 18Z-22Z
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER S/WV SUPPORT WAS OUTRUNNING THE SFC
FRONT...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT
ALL...MAINLY JUST ISOLD TO WDLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR PIKE-
WAYNE-LUZERNE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES. SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD THESE
AREAS IN MRGL RISK FOR SVR WX. SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE ARE TRENDS OF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION ONGOING SO A STRONG...
BRIEF PULSE EVENT CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...JUST
MASSAGED TEMPERATURES/DWPTS/WINDS/CLOUDS TO FIT LATEST TRENDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DEFINITELY COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE.

MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION INCREASING SOUTHWARD TO THE LOWER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL START TO DRIFT EAST DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY TO REMAIN DRY. EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z...THUS MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO
RETURN TO REGION. THIS WILL RESULT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE.

LARGE DISCREPANCY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON THE ONSET
AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND WHEN PRECIP WILL START OVER THE
REGION ON SAT. THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST... STARTING PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY THE NAM THEN THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ON
SAT FOR CONSISTENCY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
REGION LATE SAT NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD WILL DETERMINE
MIN TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPS DURING THE TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE UPPR 70S TO LOW
80S... AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S SAT AND MAY POSSIBLY FALL
INTO THE UPPR 40S OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN NY. THE TROF WILL FILL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, AND BY
MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY
AND PA.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HANGING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE
THE RIDGE REBUILDS, THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL END AND
SUNNY/WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER EASTERN NY...A FEW COUNTIES EAST
OF THE RME AND AVP TERMINALS. WE EXPECT THESE STORMS TO REMAIN
EAST OF OUR TERMINALS, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING.

WEST WINDS WILL GUST AT TIMES AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET, THEN
WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LIGHT FOG MAY FORM AT AVP AND
BGM, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG BETWEEN 9Z AND 13Z AT ELM.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...JAB/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 281546
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1146 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. COOLER, AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...COLD FRONT WAS BISECTING THE CWA AT THIS HOUR
WITH CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES.
HAVE CONTINUED TO REFINE SHRA/TSRA CHANCE AREAS TO JUST THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME FROM ABOUT 18Z-22Z
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER S/WV SUPPORT WAS OUTRUNNING THE SFC
FRONT...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT
ALL...MAINLY JUST ISOLD TO WDLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR PIKE-
WAYNE-LUZERNE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES. SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD THESE
AREAS IN MRGL RISK FOR SVR WX. SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE ARE TRENDS OF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION ONGOING SO A STRONG...
BRIEF PULSE EVENT CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...JUST
MASSAGED TEMPERATURES/DWPTS/WINDS/CLOUDS TO FIT LATEST TRENDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DEFINITELY COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE.

MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION INCREASING SOUTHWARD TO THE LOWER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL START TO DRIFT EAST DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY TO REMAIN DRY. EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z...THUS MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO
RETURN TO REGION. THIS WILL RESULT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE.

LARGE DISCREPANCY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON THE ONSET
AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND WHEN PRECIP WILL START OVER THE
REGION ON SAT. THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST... STARTING PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY THE NAM THEN THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ON
SAT FOR CONSISTENCY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
REGION LATE SAT NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD WILL DETERMINE
MIN TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPS DURING THE TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE UPPR 70S TO LOW
80S... AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S SAT AND MAY POSSIBLY FALL
INTO THE UPPR 40S OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN NY. THE TROF WILL FILL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, AND BY
MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY
AND PA.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HANGING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE
THE RIDGE REBUILDS, THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL END AND
SUNNY/WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS A
MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NYS TAFS THIS MORNING. CIGS
AROUND 4K FT WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES SCATTER OUT. VALLEY FOG IS POSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AS SKIES CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING. AT KELM WENT POSSIBLE IFR
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 13Z
THEN CIGS WILL BE AROUND 5K FT WITH FROPA DURING THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

S/SW AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN NW BY MID/LATE MORNING
AT 10-12 KNOTS. AT KAVP WIND SHIFT DURING THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...JAB/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 281546
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1146 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. COOLER, AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...COLD FRONT WAS BISECTING THE CWA AT THIS HOUR
WITH CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES.
HAVE CONTINUED TO REFINE SHRA/TSRA CHANCE AREAS TO JUST THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME FROM ABOUT 18Z-22Z
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER S/WV SUPPORT WAS OUTRUNNING THE SFC
FRONT...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT
ALL...MAINLY JUST ISOLD TO WDLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR PIKE-
WAYNE-LUZERNE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES. SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD THESE
AREAS IN MRGL RISK FOR SVR WX. SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE ARE TRENDS OF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION ONGOING SO A STRONG...
BRIEF PULSE EVENT CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...JUST
MASSAGED TEMPERATURES/DWPTS/WINDS/CLOUDS TO FIT LATEST TRENDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DEFINITELY COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE.

MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION INCREASING SOUTHWARD TO THE LOWER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL START TO DRIFT EAST DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY TO REMAIN DRY. EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z...THUS MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO
RETURN TO REGION. THIS WILL RESULT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE.

LARGE DISCREPANCY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON THE ONSET
AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND WHEN PRECIP WILL START OVER THE
REGION ON SAT. THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST... STARTING PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY THE NAM THEN THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ON
SAT FOR CONSISTENCY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
REGION LATE SAT NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD WILL DETERMINE
MIN TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPS DURING THE TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE UPPR 70S TO LOW
80S... AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S SAT AND MAY POSSIBLY FALL
INTO THE UPPR 40S OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN NY. THE TROF WILL FILL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, AND BY
MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY
AND PA.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HANGING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE
THE RIDGE REBUILDS, THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL END AND
SUNNY/WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS A
MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NYS TAFS THIS MORNING. CIGS
AROUND 4K FT WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES SCATTER OUT. VALLEY FOG IS POSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AS SKIES CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING. AT KELM WENT POSSIBLE IFR
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 13Z
THEN CIGS WILL BE AROUND 5K FT WITH FROPA DURING THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

S/SW AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN NW BY MID/LATE MORNING
AT 10-12 KNOTS. AT KAVP WIND SHIFT DURING THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...JAB/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 281436
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1036 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. COOLER, AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...COLD FRONT WAS BISECTING THE CWA AT THIS HOUR
WITH CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES.
HAVE CONTINUED TO REFINE SHRA/TSRA CHANCE AREAS TO JUST THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME FROM ABOUT 18Z-22Z
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER S/WV SUPPORT WAS OUTRUNNING THE SFC
FRONT...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT
ALL...MAINLY JUST ISOLD TO WDLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR PIKE-
WAYNE-LUZERNE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES. SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD THESE
AREAS IN MRGL RISK FOR SVR WX. SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE ARE TRENDS OF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION ONGOING SO A STRONG...
BRIEF PULSE EVENT CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...JUST
MASSAGED TEMPERATURES/DWPTS/WINDS/CLOUDS TO FIT LATEST TRENDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DEFINITELY COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE.

MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION INCREASING SOUTHWARD TO THE LOWER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL START TO DRIFT EAST DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY TO REMAIN DRY. EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z...THUS MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO
RETURN TO REGION. THIS WILL RESULT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE.

LARGE DISCREPANCY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON THE ONSET
AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND WHEN PRECIP WILL START OVER THE
REGION ON SAT. THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST... STARTING PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY THE NAM THEN THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ON
SAT FOR CONSISTENCY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
REGION LATE SAT NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD WILL DETERMINE
MIN TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPS DURING THE TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE UPPR 70S TO LOW
80S... AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S SAT AND MAY POSSIBLY FALL
INTO THE UPPR 40S OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED FORECAST
JUST POPULATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK
RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ALONG WITH
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH
PRES RESIDES OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TOWARD
MID WEEK CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND
SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE EAST COAST BRINGS A MODERATING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS A
MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NYS TAFS THIS MORNING. CIGS
AROUND 4K FT WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES SCATTER OUT. VALLEY FOG IS POSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AS SKIES CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING. AT KELM WENT POSSIBLE IFR
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 13Z
THEN CIGS WILL BE AROUND 5K FT WITH FROPA DURING THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

S/SW AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN NW BY MID/LATE MORNING
AT 10-12 KNOTS. AT KAVP WIND SHIFT DURING THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...JAB/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 281436
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1036 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. COOLER, AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...COLD FRONT WAS BISECTING THE CWA AT THIS HOUR
WITH CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES.
HAVE CONTINUED TO REFINE SHRA/TSRA CHANCE AREAS TO JUST THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME FROM ABOUT 18Z-22Z
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER S/WV SUPPORT WAS OUTRUNNING THE SFC
FRONT...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT
ALL...MAINLY JUST ISOLD TO WDLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR PIKE-
WAYNE-LUZERNE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES. SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD THESE
AREAS IN MRGL RISK FOR SVR WX. SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE ARE TRENDS OF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION ONGOING SO A STRONG...
BRIEF PULSE EVENT CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...JUST
MASSAGED TEMPERATURES/DWPTS/WINDS/CLOUDS TO FIT LATEST TRENDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DEFINITELY COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE.

MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION INCREASING SOUTHWARD TO THE LOWER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL START TO DRIFT EAST DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY TO REMAIN DRY. EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z...THUS MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO
RETURN TO REGION. THIS WILL RESULT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE.

LARGE DISCREPANCY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON THE ONSET
AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND WHEN PRECIP WILL START OVER THE
REGION ON SAT. THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST... STARTING PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY THE NAM THEN THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ON
SAT FOR CONSISTENCY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
REGION LATE SAT NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD WILL DETERMINE
MIN TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPS DURING THE TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE UPPR 70S TO LOW
80S... AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S SAT AND MAY POSSIBLY FALL
INTO THE UPPR 40S OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED FORECAST
JUST POPULATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK
RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ALONG WITH
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH
PRES RESIDES OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TOWARD
MID WEEK CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND
SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE EAST COAST BRINGS A MODERATING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS A
MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NYS TAFS THIS MORNING. CIGS
AROUND 4K FT WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES SCATTER OUT. VALLEY FOG IS POSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AS SKIES CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING. AT KELM WENT POSSIBLE IFR
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 13Z
THEN CIGS WILL BE AROUND 5K FT WITH FROPA DURING THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

S/SW AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN NW BY MID/LATE MORNING
AT 10-12 KNOTS. AT KAVP WIND SHIFT DURING THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...JAB/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 281052
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING THE
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START ON
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE. HAVE DECREASED POPS THIS MORNING TO TO CAPTURE TREND ON
THE RADAR. SHOWERS STILL MAY DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE STEUBEN COUNTY THIS
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING GENERATED THIS MORNING BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL
NY. THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT MAY CREATE A SFC BOUNDARY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.... MAINLY IN SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTY. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA AROUND 18Z AND THUS
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES QUICKLY AFTER 18Z. SUBSIDENCE AND
VERY DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION INCREASING SOUTHWARD TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL START TO DRIFT EAST DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY TO REMAIN DRY. EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z...THUS MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO
RETURN TO REGION. THIS WILL RESULT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE.

LARGE DISCREPANCY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON THE ONSET
AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND WHEN PRECIP WILL START OVER THE
REGION ON SAT. THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST... STARTING PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY THE NAM THEN THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ON
SAT FOR CONSISTENCY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
REGION LATE SAT NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD WILL DETERMINE
MIN TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPS DURING THE TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE UPPR 70S TO LOW
80S... AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S SAT AND MAY POSSIBLY FALL
INTO THE UPPR 40S OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED FORECAST
JUST POPULATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK
RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ALONG WITH
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH
PRES RESIDES OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TOWARD
MID WEEK CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND
SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE EAST COAST BRINGS A MODERATING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS A
MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NYS TAFS THIS MORNING. CIGS
AROUND 4K FT WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES SCATTER OUT. VALLEY FOG IS POSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AS SKIES CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING. AT KELM WENT POSSIBLE IFR
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 13Z
THEN CIGS WILL BE AROUND 5K FT WITH FROPA DURING THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

S/SW AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN NW BY MID/LATE MORNING
AT 10-12 KNOTS. AT KAVP WIND SHIFT DURING THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 281052
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING THE
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START ON
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE. HAVE DECREASED POPS THIS MORNING TO TO CAPTURE TREND ON
THE RADAR. SHOWERS STILL MAY DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE STEUBEN COUNTY THIS
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING GENERATED THIS MORNING BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL
NY. THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT MAY CREATE A SFC BOUNDARY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.... MAINLY IN SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTY. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA AROUND 18Z AND THUS
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES QUICKLY AFTER 18Z. SUBSIDENCE AND
VERY DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION INCREASING SOUTHWARD TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL START TO DRIFT EAST DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY TO REMAIN DRY. EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z...THUS MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO
RETURN TO REGION. THIS WILL RESULT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE.

LARGE DISCREPANCY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON THE ONSET
AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND WHEN PRECIP WILL START OVER THE
REGION ON SAT. THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST... STARTING PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY THE NAM THEN THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ON
SAT FOR CONSISTENCY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
REGION LATE SAT NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD WILL DETERMINE
MIN TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPS DURING THE TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE UPPR 70S TO LOW
80S... AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S SAT AND MAY POSSIBLY FALL
INTO THE UPPR 40S OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED FORECAST
JUST POPULATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK
RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ALONG WITH
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH
PRES RESIDES OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TOWARD
MID WEEK CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND
SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE EAST COAST BRINGS A MODERATING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS A
MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NYS TAFS THIS MORNING. CIGS
AROUND 4K FT WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES SCATTER OUT. VALLEY FOG IS POSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AS SKIES CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING. AT KELM WENT POSSIBLE IFR
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 13Z
THEN CIGS WILL BE AROUND 5K FT WITH FROPA DURING THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

S/SW AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN NW BY MID/LATE MORNING
AT 10-12 KNOTS. AT KAVP WIND SHIFT DURING THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 281052
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING THE
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START ON
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE. HAVE DECREASED POPS THIS MORNING TO TO CAPTURE TREND ON
THE RADAR. SHOWERS STILL MAY DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE STEUBEN COUNTY THIS
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING GENERATED THIS MORNING BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL
NY. THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT MAY CREATE A SFC BOUNDARY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.... MAINLY IN SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTY. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA AROUND 18Z AND THUS
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES QUICKLY AFTER 18Z. SUBSIDENCE AND
VERY DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION INCREASING SOUTHWARD TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL START TO DRIFT EAST DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY TO REMAIN DRY. EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z...THUS MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO
RETURN TO REGION. THIS WILL RESULT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE.

LARGE DISCREPANCY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON THE ONSET
AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND WHEN PRECIP WILL START OVER THE
REGION ON SAT. THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST... STARTING PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY THE NAM THEN THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ON
SAT FOR CONSISTENCY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
REGION LATE SAT NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD WILL DETERMINE
MIN TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPS DURING THE TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE UPPR 70S TO LOW
80S... AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S SAT AND MAY POSSIBLY FALL
INTO THE UPPR 40S OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED FORECAST
JUST POPULATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK
RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ALONG WITH
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH
PRES RESIDES OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TOWARD
MID WEEK CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND
SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE EAST COAST BRINGS A MODERATING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS A
MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NYS TAFS THIS MORNING. CIGS
AROUND 4K FT WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES SCATTER OUT. VALLEY FOG IS POSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AS SKIES CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING. AT KELM WENT POSSIBLE IFR
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 13Z
THEN CIGS WILL BE AROUND 5K FT WITH FROPA DURING THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

S/SW AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN NW BY MID/LATE MORNING
AT 10-12 KNOTS. AT KAVP WIND SHIFT DURING THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 281052
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING THE
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START ON
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE. HAVE DECREASED POPS THIS MORNING TO TO CAPTURE TREND ON
THE RADAR. SHOWERS STILL MAY DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE STEUBEN COUNTY THIS
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING GENERATED THIS MORNING BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL
NY. THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT MAY CREATE A SFC BOUNDARY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.... MAINLY IN SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTY. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA AROUND 18Z AND THUS
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES QUICKLY AFTER 18Z. SUBSIDENCE AND
VERY DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION INCREASING SOUTHWARD TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL START TO DRIFT EAST DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY TO REMAIN DRY. EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z...THUS MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO
RETURN TO REGION. THIS WILL RESULT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE.

LARGE DISCREPANCY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON THE ONSET
AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND WHEN PRECIP WILL START OVER THE
REGION ON SAT. THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST... STARTING PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY THE NAM THEN THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ON
SAT FOR CONSISTENCY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
REGION LATE SAT NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD WILL DETERMINE
MIN TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPS DURING THE TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE UPPR 70S TO LOW
80S... AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S SAT AND MAY POSSIBLY FALL
INTO THE UPPR 40S OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED FORECAST
JUST POPULATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK
RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ALONG WITH
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH
PRES RESIDES OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TOWARD
MID WEEK CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND
SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE EAST COAST BRINGS A MODERATING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS A
MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NYS TAFS THIS MORNING. CIGS
AROUND 4K FT WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES SCATTER OUT. VALLEY FOG IS POSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AS SKIES CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING. AT KELM WENT POSSIBLE IFR
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 13Z
THEN CIGS WILL BE AROUND 5K FT WITH FROPA DURING THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

S/SW AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN NW BY MID/LATE MORNING
AT 10-12 KNOTS. AT KAVP WIND SHIFT DURING THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 281031
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
631 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING THE
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START ON
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE. HAVE DECREASED POPS THIS MORNING TO TO CAPTURE TREND ON
THE RADAR. SHOWERS STILL MAY DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE STEUBEN COUNTY THIS
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING GENERATED THIS MORNING BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL
NY. THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT MAY CREATE A SFC BOUNDARY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.... MAINLY IN SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTY. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA AROUND 18Z AND THUS
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES QUICKLY AFTER 18Z. SUBSIDENCE AND
VERY DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION INCREASING SOUTHWARD TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL START TO DRIFT EAST DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY TO REMAIN DRY. EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z...THUS MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO
RETURN TO REGION. THIS WILL RESULT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE.

LARGE DISCREPANCY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON THE ONSET
AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND WHEN PRECIP WILL START OVER THE
REGION ON SAT. THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST... STARTING PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY THE NAM THEN THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ON
SAT FOR CONSISTENCY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
REGION LATE SAT NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD WILL DETERMINE
MIN TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPS DURING THE TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE UPPR 70S TO LOW
80S... AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S SAT AND MAY POSSIBLY FALL
INTO THE UPPR 40S OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED FORECAST
JUST POPULATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK
RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ALONG WITH
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH
PRES RESIDES OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TOWARD
MID WEEK CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND
SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE EAST COAST BRINGS A MODERATING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. AT
KSYR/KRME/KITH/KELM A PERIOD OF VFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. AT KITH THE SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY BRING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS. SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT DURING THE MID/LATE
MORNING HOURS. AT KAVP, WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR VSBYS UNTIL
DAYBREAK DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND. CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 5K FT WITH FROPA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SW AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD
DAYBREAK THEN NW BY MID/LATE MORNING AT 10-12 KNOTS. AT KAVP WIND
SHIFT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP/RRM
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 281031
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
631 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING THE
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START ON
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE. HAVE DECREASED POPS THIS MORNING TO TO CAPTURE TREND ON
THE RADAR. SHOWERS STILL MAY DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE STEUBEN COUNTY THIS
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING GENERATED THIS MORNING BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL
NY. THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT MAY CREATE A SFC BOUNDARY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.... MAINLY IN SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTY. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA AROUND 18Z AND THUS
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES QUICKLY AFTER 18Z. SUBSIDENCE AND
VERY DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION INCREASING SOUTHWARD TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL START TO DRIFT EAST DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY TO REMAIN DRY. EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z...THUS MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO
RETURN TO REGION. THIS WILL RESULT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE.

LARGE DISCREPANCY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON THE ONSET
AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND WHEN PRECIP WILL START OVER THE
REGION ON SAT. THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST... STARTING PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY THE NAM THEN THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ON
SAT FOR CONSISTENCY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
REGION LATE SAT NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD WILL DETERMINE
MIN TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPS DURING THE TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE UPPR 70S TO LOW
80S... AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S SAT AND MAY POSSIBLY FALL
INTO THE UPPR 40S OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED FORECAST
JUST POPULATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK
RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ALONG WITH
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH
PRES RESIDES OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TOWARD
MID WEEK CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND
SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE EAST COAST BRINGS A MODERATING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. AT
KSYR/KRME/KITH/KELM A PERIOD OF VFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. AT KITH THE SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY BRING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS. SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT DURING THE MID/LATE
MORNING HOURS. AT KAVP, WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR VSBYS UNTIL
DAYBREAK DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND. CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 5K FT WITH FROPA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SW AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD
DAYBREAK THEN NW BY MID/LATE MORNING AT 10-12 KNOTS. AT KAVP WIND
SHIFT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP/RRM
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 281031
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
631 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING THE
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START ON
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE. HAVE DECREASED POPS THIS MORNING TO TO CAPTURE TREND ON
THE RADAR. SHOWERS STILL MAY DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE STEUBEN COUNTY THIS
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING GENERATED THIS MORNING BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL
NY. THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT MAY CREATE A SFC BOUNDARY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.... MAINLY IN SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTY. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA AROUND 18Z AND THUS
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES QUICKLY AFTER 18Z. SUBSIDENCE AND
VERY DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION INCREASING SOUTHWARD TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL START TO DRIFT EAST DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY TO REMAIN DRY. EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z...THUS MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO
RETURN TO REGION. THIS WILL RESULT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE.

LARGE DISCREPANCY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON THE ONSET
AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND WHEN PRECIP WILL START OVER THE
REGION ON SAT. THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST... STARTING PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY THE NAM THEN THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ON
SAT FOR CONSISTENCY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
REGION LATE SAT NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD WILL DETERMINE
MIN TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPS DURING THE TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE UPPR 70S TO LOW
80S... AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S SAT AND MAY POSSIBLY FALL
INTO THE UPPR 40S OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED FORECAST
JUST POPULATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK
RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ALONG WITH
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH
PRES RESIDES OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TOWARD
MID WEEK CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND
SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE EAST COAST BRINGS A MODERATING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. AT
KSYR/KRME/KITH/KELM A PERIOD OF VFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. AT KITH THE SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY BRING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS. SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT DURING THE MID/LATE
MORNING HOURS. AT KAVP, WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR VSBYS UNTIL
DAYBREAK DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND. CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 5K FT WITH FROPA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SW AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD
DAYBREAK THEN NW BY MID/LATE MORNING AT 10-12 KNOTS. AT KAVP WIND
SHIFT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP/RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 280831
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
431 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING THE
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START ON
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE STEUBEN COUNTY THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING GENERATED THIS MORNING BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND EXPECT
SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL NY. THE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS FRONT MAY CREATE A SFC BOUNDARY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.... MAINLY IN SULLIVAN AND
PIKE COUNTY. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF
THE CWA AROUND 18Z AND THUS THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES QUICKLY
AFTER 18Z. SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION INCREASING SOUTHWARD TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL START TO DRIFT EAST DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY TO REMAIN DRY. EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z...THUS MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO
RETURN TO REGION. THIS WILL RESULT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE.

LARGE DISCREPANCY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON THE ONSET
AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND WHEN PRECIP WILL START OVER THE
REGION ON SAT. THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST... STARTING PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY THE NAM THEN THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ON
SAT FOR CONSISTENCY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
REGION LATE SAT NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD WILL DETERMINE
MIN TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPS DURING THE TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE UPPR 70S TO LOW
80S... AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S SAT AND MAY POSSIBLY FALL
INTO THE UPPR 40S OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED FORECAST
JUST POPULATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK
RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ALONG WITH
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH
PRES RESIDES OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TOWARD
MID WEEK CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND
SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE EAST COAST BRINGS A MODERATING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. AT
KSYR/KRME/KITH/KELM A PERIOD OF VFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. AT KITH THE SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY BRING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS. SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT DURING THE MID/LATE
MORNING HOURS. AT KAVP, WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR VSBYS UNTIL
DAYBREAK DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND. CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 5K FT WITH FROPA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SW AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD
DAYBREAK THEN NW BY MID/LATE MORNING AT 10-12 KNOTS. AT KAVP WIND
SHIFT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MLJ
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 280831
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
431 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING THE
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START ON
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE STEUBEN COUNTY THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING GENERATED THIS MORNING BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND EXPECT
SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL NY. THE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS FRONT MAY CREATE A SFC BOUNDARY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.... MAINLY IN SULLIVAN AND
PIKE COUNTY. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF
THE CWA AROUND 18Z AND THUS THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES QUICKLY
AFTER 18Z. SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION INCREASING SOUTHWARD TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL START TO DRIFT EAST DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY TO REMAIN DRY. EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z...THUS MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO
RETURN TO REGION. THIS WILL RESULT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE.

LARGE DISCREPANCY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON THE ONSET
AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND WHEN PRECIP WILL START OVER THE
REGION ON SAT. THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST... STARTING PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY THE NAM THEN THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ON
SAT FOR CONSISTENCY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
REGION LATE SAT NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD WILL DETERMINE
MIN TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPS DURING THE TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE UPPR 70S TO LOW
80S... AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S SAT AND MAY POSSIBLY FALL
INTO THE UPPR 40S OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED FORECAST
JUST POPULATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK
RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ALONG WITH
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH
PRES RESIDES OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TOWARD
MID WEEK CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND
SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE EAST COAST BRINGS A MODERATING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. AT
KSYR/KRME/KITH/KELM A PERIOD OF VFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. AT KITH THE SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY BRING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS. SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT DURING THE MID/LATE
MORNING HOURS. AT KAVP, WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR VSBYS UNTIL
DAYBREAK DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND. CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 5K FT WITH FROPA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SW AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD
DAYBREAK THEN NW BY MID/LATE MORNING AT 10-12 KNOTS. AT KAVP WIND
SHIFT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MLJ
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 280735
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
335 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING THE
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START ON
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE STEUBEN COUNTY THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING GENERATED THIS MORNING BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND EXPECT
SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL NY. THE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS FRONT MAY CREATE A SFC BOUNDARY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.... MAINLY IN SULLIVAN AND
PIKE COUNTY. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF
THE CWA AROUND 18Z AND THUS THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES QUICKLY
AFTER 18Z. SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION INCREASING SOUTHWARD TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL START TO DRIFT EAST DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY TO REMAIN DRY. EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z...THUS MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO
RETURN TO REGION. THIS WILL RESULT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE.

LARGE DISCREPANCY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON THE ONSET
AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND WHEN PRECIP WILL START OVER THE
REGION ON SAT. THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST... STARTING PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY THE NAM THEN THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ON
SAT FOR CONSISTENCY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
REGION LATE SAT NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD WILL DETERMINE
MIN TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPS DURING THE TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE UPPR 70S TO LOW
80S... AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S SAT AND MAY POSSIBLY FALL
INTO THE UPPR 40S OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. AT
KSYR/KRME/KITH/KELM A PERIOD OF VFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. AT KITH THE SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY BRING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS. SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT DURING THE MID/LATE
MORNING HOURS. AT KAVP, WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR VSBYS UNTIL
DAYBREAK DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND. CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 5K FT WITH FROPA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SW AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD
DAYBREAK THEN NW BY MID/LATE MORNING AT 10-12 KNOTS. AT KAVP WIND
SHIFT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 280735
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
335 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING THE
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START ON
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE STEUBEN COUNTY THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING GENERATED THIS MORNING BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND EXPECT
SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL NY. THE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS FRONT MAY CREATE A SFC BOUNDARY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.... MAINLY IN SULLIVAN AND
PIKE COUNTY. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF
THE CWA AROUND 18Z AND THUS THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES QUICKLY
AFTER 18Z. SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION INCREASING SOUTHWARD TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL START TO DRIFT EAST DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY TO REMAIN DRY. EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z...THUS MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO
RETURN TO REGION. THIS WILL RESULT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE.

LARGE DISCREPANCY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON THE ONSET
AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND WHEN PRECIP WILL START OVER THE
REGION ON SAT. THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST... STARTING PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY THE NAM THEN THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ON
SAT FOR CONSISTENCY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
REGION LATE SAT NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD WILL DETERMINE
MIN TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPS DURING THE TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE UPPR 70S TO LOW
80S... AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S SAT AND MAY POSSIBLY FALL
INTO THE UPPR 40S OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. AT
KSYR/KRME/KITH/KELM A PERIOD OF VFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. AT KITH THE SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY BRING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS. SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT DURING THE MID/LATE
MORNING HOURS. AT KAVP, WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR VSBYS UNTIL
DAYBREAK DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND. CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 5K FT WITH FROPA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SW AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD
DAYBREAK THEN NW BY MID/LATE MORNING AT 10-12 KNOTS. AT KAVP WIND
SHIFT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 280735
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
335 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING THE
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START ON
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE STEUBEN COUNTY THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING GENERATED THIS MORNING BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND EXPECT
SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL NY. THE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS FRONT MAY CREATE A SFC BOUNDARY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.... MAINLY IN SULLIVAN AND
PIKE COUNTY. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF
THE CWA AROUND 18Z AND THUS THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES QUICKLY
AFTER 18Z. SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION INCREASING SOUTHWARD TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL START TO DRIFT EAST DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY TO REMAIN DRY. EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z...THUS MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO
RETURN TO REGION. THIS WILL RESULT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE.

LARGE DISCREPANCY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON THE ONSET
AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND WHEN PRECIP WILL START OVER THE
REGION ON SAT. THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST... STARTING PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY THE NAM THEN THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ON
SAT FOR CONSISTENCY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
REGION LATE SAT NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD WILL DETERMINE
MIN TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPS DURING THE TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE UPPR 70S TO LOW
80S... AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S SAT AND MAY POSSIBLY FALL
INTO THE UPPR 40S OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. AT
KSYR/KRME/KITH/KELM A PERIOD OF VFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. AT KITH THE SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY BRING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS. SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT DURING THE MID/LATE
MORNING HOURS. AT KAVP, WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR VSBYS UNTIL
DAYBREAK DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND. CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 5K FT WITH FROPA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SW AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD
DAYBREAK THEN NW BY MID/LATE MORNING AT 10-12 KNOTS. AT KAVP WIND
SHIFT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 280551
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
151 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITHIN A HUMID AIR MASS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OUR AREA...DRIER WEATHER IS FORESEEN FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR SHOWS THAT CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA IS CLEAR OF
PRECIPITATION AS THIS AREA FALLS INTO BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WHICH ALSO WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS AND COLD FRONT WAS QUICKLY MOVG INTO THE EASTERN LAKES. THIS
WAVE WAS PROVIDING ASCENT INTO WRN NY AT THIS TIME AND TRIGGERING
SOME SHRA. BUT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS FROM
THE SFC TO 925 MB WITH LOWER DWPTS. HENCE THE INSTABILITY WAS
MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALSO IS KICKING IN. SO AS THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE WORKS E
SHRA AND A LITTLE THUNDER WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES C NY.
ALL MODELS SHOW THIS WEAKENING WHICH LOOKS VERY REASONABLE.
SO WE STILL HAVE CHC POPS FOR SHRA AND TSRA IN NC NY TAPERING
DOWN TO SLGHT CHC FARTHER S IN SC NY AND NE PA BTWN 03Z AND 09Z.

FOR THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES PA-NY BRDR BY 12Z AS SHRT
WAVE PRESSES S INTO WRN NY. THE SHRT WAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONT S OF
NE PA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT TRACKES EWRD INTO ERN NY AND WRN
NEW ENGLAND. SO WE CONT SLGHT CHC FOR TSRA IN NE PA AS THERE WILL
BE SOME RESIDUAL CAPE THERE INTO ERLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRNT.
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LIFTING FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN FAR
ENUF N IN ERN AND NRN NY TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
FROM FIRING IN NE PA AS THIS BOUNDARY WORKS S AND FIZZLES OUT
LATE THU AFTERNOON IN SRN PA/MD/SRN NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
5 PM UPDATE... THE ABV MENTIONED SFC FRNT AND UPR TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD CROSS CNY/NE PA BY MIDDAY THU...WITH FURTHER DRYING AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THEIR WAKE. AS A RESULT...ANY ISOLD
ACTIVITY THU MRNG...SHOULD BE REPLACED BY RAIN-FREE WX AND AT
LEAST PTLY SUNNY SKIES DURG THE AFTN.

RIDGING BOTH SFC AND ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE CWA THU
NGT-FRI...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY SAT. DRY WX IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED FROM THU NGT THROUGH FRI...AND LIKELY INTO THE DAY SAT.
A QUICK SWLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD BRING WARMER CONDS BACK IN FRI
AFTN (HIGHS IN THE 80S).

STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IS EVIDENT THIS WEEKEND...WITH
SPECIFIC REGARDS TO THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE NEXT FRNTL SYSTEM.
THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST MODEL TO BRING IN SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS ON
SAT...WHILE THE NAM/RGNL GEM/EC MODELS ARE SLOWER...AND DON`T DVLP
ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION TIL LTR IN THE DAY SAT OR SAT EVE.

GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
PRIOR FCSTS...WE`LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE CHANCE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS DURG THE DAY SAT...SPCLY BY AFTN.

MORE DETAILS ON HOW THIS FRNTL BNDRY WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE OUTLINED BLO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. AT
KSYR/KRME/KITH/KELM A PERIOD OF VFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. AT KITH THE SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY BRING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS. SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT DURING THE MID/LATE
MORNING HOURS. AT KAVP, WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR VSBYS UNTIL
DAYBREAK DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND. CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 5K FT WITH FROPA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SW AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD
DAYBREAK THEN NW BY MID/LATE MORNING AT 10-12 KNOTS. AT KAVP WIND
SHIFT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 280551
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
151 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITHIN A HUMID AIR MASS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OUR AREA...DRIER WEATHER IS FORESEEN FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR SHOWS THAT CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA IS CLEAR OF
PRECIPITATION AS THIS AREA FALLS INTO BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WHICH ALSO WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS AND COLD FRONT WAS QUICKLY MOVG INTO THE EASTERN LAKES. THIS
WAVE WAS PROVIDING ASCENT INTO WRN NY AT THIS TIME AND TRIGGERING
SOME SHRA. BUT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS FROM
THE SFC TO 925 MB WITH LOWER DWPTS. HENCE THE INSTABILITY WAS
MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALSO IS KICKING IN. SO AS THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE WORKS E
SHRA AND A LITTLE THUNDER WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES C NY.
ALL MODELS SHOW THIS WEAKENING WHICH LOOKS VERY REASONABLE.
SO WE STILL HAVE CHC POPS FOR SHRA AND TSRA IN NC NY TAPERING
DOWN TO SLGHT CHC FARTHER S IN SC NY AND NE PA BTWN 03Z AND 09Z.

FOR THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES PA-NY BRDR BY 12Z AS SHRT
WAVE PRESSES S INTO WRN NY. THE SHRT WAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONT S OF
NE PA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT TRACKES EWRD INTO ERN NY AND WRN
NEW ENGLAND. SO WE CONT SLGHT CHC FOR TSRA IN NE PA AS THERE WILL
BE SOME RESIDUAL CAPE THERE INTO ERLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRNT.
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LIFTING FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN FAR
ENUF N IN ERN AND NRN NY TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
FROM FIRING IN NE PA AS THIS BOUNDARY WORKS S AND FIZZLES OUT
LATE THU AFTERNOON IN SRN PA/MD/SRN NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
5 PM UPDATE... THE ABV MENTIONED SFC FRNT AND UPR TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD CROSS CNY/NE PA BY MIDDAY THU...WITH FURTHER DRYING AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THEIR WAKE. AS A RESULT...ANY ISOLD
ACTIVITY THU MRNG...SHOULD BE REPLACED BY RAIN-FREE WX AND AT
LEAST PTLY SUNNY SKIES DURG THE AFTN.

RIDGING BOTH SFC AND ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE CWA THU
NGT-FRI...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY SAT. DRY WX IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED FROM THU NGT THROUGH FRI...AND LIKELY INTO THE DAY SAT.
A QUICK SWLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD BRING WARMER CONDS BACK IN FRI
AFTN (HIGHS IN THE 80S).

STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IS EVIDENT THIS WEEKEND...WITH
SPECIFIC REGARDS TO THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE NEXT FRNTL SYSTEM.
THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST MODEL TO BRING IN SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS ON
SAT...WHILE THE NAM/RGNL GEM/EC MODELS ARE SLOWER...AND DON`T DVLP
ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION TIL LTR IN THE DAY SAT OR SAT EVE.

GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
PRIOR FCSTS...WE`LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE CHANCE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS DURG THE DAY SAT...SPCLY BY AFTN.

MORE DETAILS ON HOW THIS FRNTL BNDRY WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE OUTLINED BLO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. AT
KSYR/KRME/KITH/KELM A PERIOD OF VFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. AT KITH THE SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY BRING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS. SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT DURING THE MID/LATE
MORNING HOURS. AT KAVP, WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR VSBYS UNTIL
DAYBREAK DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND. CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 5K FT WITH FROPA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SW AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD
DAYBREAK THEN NW BY MID/LATE MORNING AT 10-12 KNOTS. AT KAVP WIND
SHIFT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 280056
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
856 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITHIN A HUMID AIR MASS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OUR AREA...DRIER WEATHER IS FORESEEN FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS THAT CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA IS CLEAR OF
PRECIPITATION AS THIS AREA FALLS INTO BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WHICH ALSO WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS AND COLD FRONT WAS QUICKLY MOVG INTO THE EASTERN LAKES. THIS
WAVE WAS PROVIDING ASCENT INTO WRN NY AT THIS TIME AND TRIGGERING
SOME SHRA. BUT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS FROM
THE SFC TO 925 MB WITH LOWER DWPTS. HENCE THE INSTABILITY WAS
MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALSO IS KICKING IN. SO AS THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE WORKS E
SHRA AND A LITTLE THUNDER WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES C NY.
ALL MODELS SHOW THIS WEAKENING WHICH LOOKS VERY REASONABLE.
SO WE STILL HAVE CHC POPS FOR SHRA AND TSRA IN NC NY TAPERING
DOWN TO SLGHT CHC FARTHER S IN SC NY AND NE PA BTWN 03Z AND 09Z.

FOR THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES PA-NY BRDR BY 12Z AS SHRT
WAVE PRESSES S INTO WRN NY. THE SHRT WAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONT S OF
NE PA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT TRACKES EWRD INTO ERN NY AND WRN
NEW ENGLAND. SO WE CONT SLGHT CHC FOR TSRA IN NE PA AS THERE WILL
BE SOME RESIDUAL CAPE THERE INTO ERLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRNT.
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LIFTING FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN FAR
ENUF N IN ERN AND NRN NY TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
FROM FIRING IN NE PA AS THIS BOUNDARY WORKS S AND FIZZLES OUT
LATE THU AFTERNOON IN SRN PA/MD/SRN NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
5 PM UPDATE... THE ABV MENTIONED SFC FRNT AND UPR TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD CROSS CNY/NE PA BY MIDDAY THU...WITH FURTHER DRYING AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THEIR WAKE. AS A RESULT...ANY ISOLD
ACTIVITY THU MRNG...SHOULD BE REPLACED BY RAIN-FREE WX AND AT
LEAST PTLY SUNNY SKIES DURG THE AFTN.

RIDGING BOTH SFC AND ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE CWA THU
NGT-FRI...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY SAT. DRY WX IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED FROM THU NGT THROUGH FRI...AND LIKELY INTO THE DAY SAT.
A QUICK SWLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD BRING WARMER CONDS BACK IN FRI
AFTN (HIGHS IN THE 80S).

STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IS EVIDENT THIS WEEKEND...WITH
SPECIFIC REGARDS TO THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE NEXT FRNTL SYSTEM.
THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST MODEL TO BRING IN SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS ON
SAT...WHILE THE NAM/RGNL GEM/EC MODELS ARE SLOWER...AND DON`T DVLP
ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION TIL LTR IN THE DAY SAT OR SAT EVE.

GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
PRIOR FCSTS...WE`LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE CHANCE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS DURG THE DAY SAT...SPCLY BY AFTN.

MORE DETAILS ON HOW THIS FRNTL BNDRY WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE OUTLINED BLO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

VFR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME AND LOCATIONS. THIS EVE VFR WITH
SCATTERED TO CLEAR SKIES. LATE TONIGHT POSSIBLE SHOWERS AT SYR AND
RME STILL BUT TOO LOW A CHANCE OF THUNDER OR MVFR/IFR TO INCLUDE.
ALSO LATE TONIGHT AVP SHOULD HAVE MVFR FOG. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON
2SM IFR VALLEY FOG. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN HAVE WET THE GROUND.
WINDS WILL GO CALM WITH FEW TO NO CLOUDS.

ITH/ELM/BGM ONLY SPRINKLES AND CLOUDS RETURNING LATE SO FOG NOT
LIKELY TO FORM.

THURSDAY BKN SKIES WILL BECOME SCATTERED MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

S TO SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS EXCEPT AVP WHICH WILL BE LESS AND RME
WHICH SHOULD BE EAST. THU SW WINDS 7 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING TO NW.

.OUTLOOK...

.THU NGT-FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...TAC




000
FXUS61 KBGM 280056
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
856 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITHIN A HUMID AIR MASS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OUR AREA...DRIER WEATHER IS FORESEEN FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS THAT CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA IS CLEAR OF
PRECIPITATION AS THIS AREA FALLS INTO BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WHICH ALSO WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS AND COLD FRONT WAS QUICKLY MOVG INTO THE EASTERN LAKES. THIS
WAVE WAS PROVIDING ASCENT INTO WRN NY AT THIS TIME AND TRIGGERING
SOME SHRA. BUT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS FROM
THE SFC TO 925 MB WITH LOWER DWPTS. HENCE THE INSTABILITY WAS
MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALSO IS KICKING IN. SO AS THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE WORKS E
SHRA AND A LITTLE THUNDER WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES C NY.
ALL MODELS SHOW THIS WEAKENING WHICH LOOKS VERY REASONABLE.
SO WE STILL HAVE CHC POPS FOR SHRA AND TSRA IN NC NY TAPERING
DOWN TO SLGHT CHC FARTHER S IN SC NY AND NE PA BTWN 03Z AND 09Z.

FOR THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES PA-NY BRDR BY 12Z AS SHRT
WAVE PRESSES S INTO WRN NY. THE SHRT WAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONT S OF
NE PA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT TRACKES EWRD INTO ERN NY AND WRN
NEW ENGLAND. SO WE CONT SLGHT CHC FOR TSRA IN NE PA AS THERE WILL
BE SOME RESIDUAL CAPE THERE INTO ERLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRNT.
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LIFTING FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN FAR
ENUF N IN ERN AND NRN NY TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
FROM FIRING IN NE PA AS THIS BOUNDARY WORKS S AND FIZZLES OUT
LATE THU AFTERNOON IN SRN PA/MD/SRN NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
5 PM UPDATE... THE ABV MENTIONED SFC FRNT AND UPR TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD CROSS CNY/NE PA BY MIDDAY THU...WITH FURTHER DRYING AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THEIR WAKE. AS A RESULT...ANY ISOLD
ACTIVITY THU MRNG...SHOULD BE REPLACED BY RAIN-FREE WX AND AT
LEAST PTLY SUNNY SKIES DURG THE AFTN.

RIDGING BOTH SFC AND ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE CWA THU
NGT-FRI...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY SAT. DRY WX IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED FROM THU NGT THROUGH FRI...AND LIKELY INTO THE DAY SAT.
A QUICK SWLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD BRING WARMER CONDS BACK IN FRI
AFTN (HIGHS IN THE 80S).

STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IS EVIDENT THIS WEEKEND...WITH
SPECIFIC REGARDS TO THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE NEXT FRNTL SYSTEM.
THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST MODEL TO BRING IN SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS ON
SAT...WHILE THE NAM/RGNL GEM/EC MODELS ARE SLOWER...AND DON`T DVLP
ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION TIL LTR IN THE DAY SAT OR SAT EVE.

GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
PRIOR FCSTS...WE`LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE CHANCE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS DURG THE DAY SAT...SPCLY BY AFTN.

MORE DETAILS ON HOW THIS FRNTL BNDRY WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE OUTLINED BLO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

VFR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME AND LOCATIONS. THIS EVE VFR WITH
SCATTERED TO CLEAR SKIES. LATE TONIGHT POSSIBLE SHOWERS AT SYR AND
RME STILL BUT TOO LOW A CHANCE OF THUNDER OR MVFR/IFR TO INCLUDE.
ALSO LATE TONIGHT AVP SHOULD HAVE MVFR FOG. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON
2SM IFR VALLEY FOG. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN HAVE WET THE GROUND.
WINDS WILL GO CALM WITH FEW TO NO CLOUDS.

ITH/ELM/BGM ONLY SPRINKLES AND CLOUDS RETURNING LATE SO FOG NOT
LIKELY TO FORM.

THURSDAY BKN SKIES WILL BECOME SCATTERED MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

S TO SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS EXCEPT AVP WHICH WILL BE LESS AND RME
WHICH SHOULD BE EAST. THU SW WINDS 7 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING TO NW.

.OUTLOOK...

.THU NGT-FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...TAC





000
FXUS61 KBGM 272351
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
751 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITHIN A HUMID AIR MASS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OUR AREA...DRIER WEATHER IS FORESEEN FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO DROP WW 227. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

5 PM UPDATE... CONVECTIVE LN AHD OF A PRE-FRNTL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TRUDGE EWD EARLY THIS EVE...AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR
FA BY 6-8 PM. IN THE MEANTIME...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL
PSBL IN PTNS OF PIKE/SULLIVAN CNTYS. OUR SVR WX THREAT IS PRETTY
MUCH NIL AT THIS PT...WITH THE AMS WORKED OVER FROM EARLIER
ACTIVITY. WW 227 WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM...OR BE CANCELLED SOONER.

OVERNIGHT...BANDS OF SHWRS/TSTMS...CURRENTLY ACRS SRN ONT...LK
ERIE...AND NRN OH...WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE W AFTER
9-11 PM. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCD WITH THE MAIN SFC COLD FRNT AND
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING...AND A SLGT LWRG OF SFC DEW PTS...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN. THIS EVOLUTION IS SHOWN BY ALL SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.
THUS...WE`LL CONTINUE TO ONLY ADVERTISE ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS LTR
TNT INTO EARLY THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
5 PM UPDATE... THE ABV MENTIONED SFC FRNT AND UPR TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD CROSS CNY/NE PA BY MIDDAY THU...WITH FURTHER DRYING AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THEIR WAKE. AS A RESULT...ANY ISOLD
ACTIVITY THU MRNG...SHOULD BE REPLACED BY RAIN-FREE WX AND AT
LEAST PTLY SUNNY SKIES DURG THE AFTN.

RIDGING BOTH SFC AND ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE CWA THU
NGT-FRI...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY SAT. DRY WX IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED FROM THU NGT THROUGH FRI...AND LIKELY INTO THE DAY SAT.
A QUICK SWLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD BRING WARMER CONDS BACK IN FRI
AFTN (HIGHS IN THE 80S).

STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IS EVIDENT THIS WEEKEND...WITH
SPECIFIC REGARDS TO THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE NEXT FRNTL SYSTEM.
THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST MODEL TO BRING IN SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS ON
SAT...WHILE THE NAM/RGNL GEM/EC MODELS ARE SLOWER...AND DON`T DVLP
ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION TIL LTR IN THE DAY SAT OR SAT EVE.

GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
PRIOR FCSTS...WE`LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE CHANCE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS DURG THE DAY SAT...SPCLY BY AFTN.

MORE DETAILS ON HOW THIS FRNTL BNDRY WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE OUTLINED BLO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

VFR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME AND LOCATIONS. THIS EVE VFR WITH
SCATTERED TO CLEAR SKIES. LATE TONIGHT POSSIBLE SHOWERS AT SYR AND
RME STILL BUT TOO LOW A CHANCE OF THUNDER OR MVFR/IFR TO INCLUDE.
ALSO LATE TONIGHT AVP SHOULD HAVE MVFR FOG. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON
2SM IFR VALLEY FOG. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN HAVE WET THE GROUND.
WINDS WILL GO CALM WITH FEW TO NO CLOUDS.

ITH/ELM/BGM ONLY SPRINKLES AND CLOUDS RETURNING LATE SO FOG NOT
LIKELY TO FORM.

THURSDAY BKN SKIES WILL BECOME SCATTERED MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

S TO SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS EXCEPT AVP WHICH WILL BE LESS AND RME
WHICH SHOULD BE EAST. THU SW WINDS 7 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING TO NW.

.OUTLOOK...

.THU NGT-FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...TAC




000
FXUS61 KBGM 272138
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
538 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITHIN A HUMID AIR MASS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OUR AREA...DRIER WEATHER IS FORESEEN FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO DROP WW 227. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

5 PM UPDATE... CONVECTIVE LN AHD OF A PRE-FRNTL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TRUDGE EWD EARLY THIS EVE...AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR
FA BY 6-8 PM. IN THE MEANTIME...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL
PSBL IN PTNS OF PIKE/SULLIVAN CNTYS. OUR SVR WX THREAT IS PRETTY
MUCH NIL AT THIS PT...WITH THE AMS WORKED OVER FROM EARLIER
ACTIVITY. WW 227 WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM...OR BE CANCELLED SOONER.

OVERNIGHT...BANDS OF SHWRS/TSTMS...CURRENTLY ACRS SRN ONT...LK
ERIE...AND NRN OH...WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE W AFTER
9-11 PM. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCD WITH THE MAIN SFC COLD FRNT AND
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING...AND A SLGT LWRG OF SFC DEW PTS...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN. THIS EVOLUTION IS SHOWN BY ALL SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.
THUS...WE`LL CONTINUE TO ONLY ADVERTISE ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS LTR
TNT INTO EARLY THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
5 PM UPDATE... THE ABV MENTIONED SFC FRNT AND UPR TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD CROSS CNY/NE PA BY MIDDAY THU...WITH FURTHER DRYING AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THEIR WAKE. AS A RESULT...ANY ISOLD
ACTIVITY THU MRNG...SHOULD BE REPLACED BY RAIN-FREE WX AND AT
LEAST PTLY SUNNY SKIES DURG THE AFTN.

RIDGING BOTH SFC AND ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE CWA THU
NGT-FRI...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY SAT. DRY WX IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED FROM THU NGT THROUGH FRI...AND LIKELY INTO THE DAY SAT.
A QUICK SWLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD BRING WARMER CONDS BACK IN FRI
AFTN (HIGHS IN THE 80S).

STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IS EVIDENT THIS WEEKEND...WITH
SPECIFIC REGARDS TO THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE NEXT FRNTL SYSTEM.
THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST MODEL TO BRING IN SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS ON
SAT...WHILE THE NAM/RGNL GEM/EC MODELS ARE SLOWER...AND DON`T DVLP
ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION TIL LTR IN THE DAY SAT OR SAT EVE.

GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
PRIOR FCSTS...WE`LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE CHANCE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS DURG THE DAY SAT...SPCLY BY AFTN.

MORE DETAILS ON HOW THIS FRNTL BNDRY WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE OUTLINED BLO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NON-RESTRICTIVE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS EAST OF
I-81 OVER NYS AND NEAR I-81 OVER PA. THE MAIN THREATS ARE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, MAINLY NEAR AVP AND RME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH BASES AROUND 4000-6000
FEET. LIGHT FOG (3SM TO 5SM) IS POSSIBLE AT AVP AND ELM TOWARD
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 272138
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
538 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITHIN A HUMID AIR MASS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OUR AREA...DRIER WEATHER IS FORESEEN FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO DROP WW 227. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

5 PM UPDATE... CONVECTIVE LN AHD OF A PRE-FRNTL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TRUDGE EWD EARLY THIS EVE...AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR
FA BY 6-8 PM. IN THE MEANTIME...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL
PSBL IN PTNS OF PIKE/SULLIVAN CNTYS. OUR SVR WX THREAT IS PRETTY
MUCH NIL AT THIS PT...WITH THE AMS WORKED OVER FROM EARLIER
ACTIVITY. WW 227 WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM...OR BE CANCELLED SOONER.

OVERNIGHT...BANDS OF SHWRS/TSTMS...CURRENTLY ACRS SRN ONT...LK
ERIE...AND NRN OH...WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE W AFTER
9-11 PM. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCD WITH THE MAIN SFC COLD FRNT AND
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING...AND A SLGT LWRG OF SFC DEW PTS...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN. THIS EVOLUTION IS SHOWN BY ALL SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.
THUS...WE`LL CONTINUE TO ONLY ADVERTISE ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS LTR
TNT INTO EARLY THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
5 PM UPDATE... THE ABV MENTIONED SFC FRNT AND UPR TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD CROSS CNY/NE PA BY MIDDAY THU...WITH FURTHER DRYING AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THEIR WAKE. AS A RESULT...ANY ISOLD
ACTIVITY THU MRNG...SHOULD BE REPLACED BY RAIN-FREE WX AND AT
LEAST PTLY SUNNY SKIES DURG THE AFTN.

RIDGING BOTH SFC AND ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE CWA THU
NGT-FRI...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY SAT. DRY WX IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED FROM THU NGT THROUGH FRI...AND LIKELY INTO THE DAY SAT.
A QUICK SWLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD BRING WARMER CONDS BACK IN FRI
AFTN (HIGHS IN THE 80S).

STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IS EVIDENT THIS WEEKEND...WITH
SPECIFIC REGARDS TO THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE NEXT FRNTL SYSTEM.
THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST MODEL TO BRING IN SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS ON
SAT...WHILE THE NAM/RGNL GEM/EC MODELS ARE SLOWER...AND DON`T DVLP
ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION TIL LTR IN THE DAY SAT OR SAT EVE.

GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
PRIOR FCSTS...WE`LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE CHANCE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS DURG THE DAY SAT...SPCLY BY AFTN.

MORE DETAILS ON HOW THIS FRNTL BNDRY WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE OUTLINED BLO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NON-RESTRICTIVE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS EAST OF
I-81 OVER NYS AND NEAR I-81 OVER PA. THE MAIN THREATS ARE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, MAINLY NEAR AVP AND RME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH BASES AROUND 4000-6000
FEET. LIGHT FOG (3SM TO 5SM) IS POSSIBLE AT AVP AND ELM TOWARD
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 272107
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
507 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITHIN A HUMID AIR MASS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OUR AREA...DRIER WEATHER IS FORESEEN FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
5 PM UPDATE... CONVECTIVE LN AHD OF A PRE-FRNTL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TRUDGE EWD EARLY THIS EVE...AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR
FA BY 6-8 PM. IN THE MEANTIME...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL
PSBL IN PTNS OF PIKE/SULLIVAN CNTYS. OUR SVR WX THREAT IS PRETTY
MUCH NIL AT THIS PT...WITH THE AMS WORKED OVER FROM EARLIER
ACTIVITY. WW 227 WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM...OR BE CANCELLED SOONER.

OVERNIGHT...BANDS OF SHWRS/TSTMS...CURRENTLY ACRS SRN ONT...LK
ERIE...AND NRN OH...WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE W AFTER
9-11 PM. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCD WITH THE MAIN SFC COLD FRNT AND
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING...AND A SLGT LWRG OF SFC DEW PTS...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN. THIS EVOLUTION IS SHOWN BY ALL SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.
THUS...WE`LL CONTINUE TO ONLY ADVERTISE ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS LTR
TNT INTO EARLY THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
5 PM UPDATE... THE ABV MENTIONED SFC FRNT AND UPR TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD CROSS CNY/NE PA BY MIDDAY THU...WITH FURTHER DRYING AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THEIR WAKE. AS A RESULT...ANY ISOLD
ACTIVITY THU MRNG...SHOULD BE REPLACED BY RAIN-FREE WX AND AT
LEAST PTLY SUNNY SKIES DURG THE AFTN.

RIDGING BOTH SFC AND ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE CWA THU
NGT-FRI...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY SAT. DRY WX IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED FROM THU NGT THROUGH FRI...AND LIKELY INTO THE DAY SAT.
A QUICK SWLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD BRING WARMER CONDS BACK IN FRI
AFTN (HIGHS IN THE 80S).

STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IS EVIDENT THIS WEEKEND...WITH
SPECIFIC REGARDS TO THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE NEXT FRNTL SYSTEM.
THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST MODEL TO BRING IN SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS ON
SAT...WHILE THE NAM/RGNL GEM/EC MODELS ARE SLOWER...AND DON`T DVLP
ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION TIL LTR IN THE DAY SAT OR SAT EVE.

GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
PRIOR FCSTS...WE`LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE CHANCE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS DURG THE DAY SAT...SPCLY BY AFTN.

MORE DETAILS ON HOW THIS FRNTL BNDRY WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE OUTLINED BLO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NON-RESTRICTIVE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS EAST OF
I-81 OVER NYS AND NEAR I-81 OVER PA. THE MAIN THREATS ARE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, MAINLY NEAR AVP AND RME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH BASES AROUND 4000-6000
FEET. LIGHT FOG (3SM TO 5SM) IS POSSIBLE AT AVP AND ELM TOWARD
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 272107
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
507 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITHIN A HUMID AIR MASS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OUR AREA...DRIER WEATHER IS FORESEEN FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
5 PM UPDATE... CONVECTIVE LN AHD OF A PRE-FRNTL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TRUDGE EWD EARLY THIS EVE...AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR
FA BY 6-8 PM. IN THE MEANTIME...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL
PSBL IN PTNS OF PIKE/SULLIVAN CNTYS. OUR SVR WX THREAT IS PRETTY
MUCH NIL AT THIS PT...WITH THE AMS WORKED OVER FROM EARLIER
ACTIVITY. WW 227 WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM...OR BE CANCELLED SOONER.

OVERNIGHT...BANDS OF SHWRS/TSTMS...CURRENTLY ACRS SRN ONT...LK
ERIE...AND NRN OH...WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE W AFTER
9-11 PM. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCD WITH THE MAIN SFC COLD FRNT AND
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING...AND A SLGT LWRG OF SFC DEW PTS...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN. THIS EVOLUTION IS SHOWN BY ALL SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.
THUS...WE`LL CONTINUE TO ONLY ADVERTISE ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS LTR
TNT INTO EARLY THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
5 PM UPDATE... THE ABV MENTIONED SFC FRNT AND UPR TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD CROSS CNY/NE PA BY MIDDAY THU...WITH FURTHER DRYING AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THEIR WAKE. AS A RESULT...ANY ISOLD
ACTIVITY THU MRNG...SHOULD BE REPLACED BY RAIN-FREE WX AND AT
LEAST PTLY SUNNY SKIES DURG THE AFTN.

RIDGING BOTH SFC AND ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE CWA THU
NGT-FRI...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY SAT. DRY WX IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED FROM THU NGT THROUGH FRI...AND LIKELY INTO THE DAY SAT.
A QUICK SWLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD BRING WARMER CONDS BACK IN FRI
AFTN (HIGHS IN THE 80S).

STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IS EVIDENT THIS WEEKEND...WITH
SPECIFIC REGARDS TO THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE NEXT FRNTL SYSTEM.
THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST MODEL TO BRING IN SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS ON
SAT...WHILE THE NAM/RGNL GEM/EC MODELS ARE SLOWER...AND DON`T DVLP
ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION TIL LTR IN THE DAY SAT OR SAT EVE.

GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
PRIOR FCSTS...WE`LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE CHANCE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS DURG THE DAY SAT...SPCLY BY AFTN.

MORE DETAILS ON HOW THIS FRNTL BNDRY WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE OUTLINED BLO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NON-RESTRICTIVE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS EAST OF
I-81 OVER NYS AND NEAR I-81 OVER PA. THE MAIN THREATS ARE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, MAINLY NEAR AVP AND RME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH BASES AROUND 4000-6000
FEET. LIGHT FOG (3SM TO 5SM) IS POSSIBLE AT AVP AND ELM TOWARD
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 271833
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
233 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LAST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND LESS HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 PM UPDATE... ONEIDA/MADISON/CHENANGO/BROOME CNTYS HAVE BEEN
CLEARED FROM WW 227. NARROW CONVECTIVE LN CONTS TO PUSH THROUGH
OUR FAR ERN ZNS ATTM...WITH SOME WIND/HVY RAIN POTENTIAL STILL
THERE. FARTHER TO THE W AND N...THINGS LOOK MAINLY DRY OVER THE
NEXT SVRL HRS.

PREV DISC... 1 PM UPDATE... WW 227 (SVR TSTM) HAS BEEN
ISSUED...BASICALLY FROM THE I-81 CORRIDOR EWD. THIS IS WHERE THE
BEST DESTABILIZATION HAS TAKEN PLACE (ML CAPES 750-1500 J/KG THIS
AFTN)...ALG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KT. LOCALLY STG
WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LN SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT OUR CATSKILL AND
POCONO ZNS BY 21-22Z.

EARLIER DISC... 945 AM WED UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN
DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS
ATTM.

ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS ARE MOVG INTO OUR NRN/WRN ZNS LATE THIS MRNG.
BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES DATA...OUR EXPECTATION STILL IS THAT
SHORT LNS OF CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH THE
MORE ROBUST DVLPMT NEAR AND E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW UNSTABLE WE`LL GET...AS THE LATEST VSBL
SAT LOOP SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF CLDS FILLING IN WITHIN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ENUF
BREAKS/INSOLATION TO REALIZE AT LEAST 700-1000 J/KG OF ML
CAPE...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN OUR FAR ERN/SERN ZNS. COUPLED WITH
DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 15-20 KT...THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE INTENSE LINEAR TYPE STORMS...WITH
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 1.5-1.8" AND DEEPLY
UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW PROFILES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/TRAINING
ALSO COULD STILL BE AT PLAY. THUS...IN ADDITION TO OUR CONTINUED
MENTION OF THESE THREATS IN THE HWO...WE ADDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTO THE WX GRIDS.

OUR WRN AND NRN ZNS SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE
AFTN...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS AND ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION FORESEEN
HERE WELL INTO THE EVE HRS.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA WHERE MODELS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY BY LATE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON REGION SHOULD BE DRY AS
A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH NE PA IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS. A COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND PRODUCE A S/SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIR. PERIOD WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH MAXES ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NON-RESTRICTIVE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS EAST OF
I-81 OVER NYS AND NEAR I-81 OVER PA. THE MAIN THREATS ARE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, MAINLY NEAR AVP AND RME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH BASES AROUND 4000-6000
FEET. LIGHT FOG (3SM TO 5SM) IS POSSIBLE AT AVP AND ELM TOWARD
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 271833
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
233 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LAST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND LESS HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 PM UPDATE... ONEIDA/MADISON/CHENANGO/BROOME CNTYS HAVE BEEN
CLEARED FROM WW 227. NARROW CONVECTIVE LN CONTS TO PUSH THROUGH
OUR FAR ERN ZNS ATTM...WITH SOME WIND/HVY RAIN POTENTIAL STILL
THERE. FARTHER TO THE W AND N...THINGS LOOK MAINLY DRY OVER THE
NEXT SVRL HRS.

PREV DISC... 1 PM UPDATE... WW 227 (SVR TSTM) HAS BEEN
ISSUED...BASICALLY FROM THE I-81 CORRIDOR EWD. THIS IS WHERE THE
BEST DESTABILIZATION HAS TAKEN PLACE (ML CAPES 750-1500 J/KG THIS
AFTN)...ALG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KT. LOCALLY STG
WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LN SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT OUR CATSKILL AND
POCONO ZNS BY 21-22Z.

EARLIER DISC... 945 AM WED UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN
DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS
ATTM.

ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS ARE MOVG INTO OUR NRN/WRN ZNS LATE THIS MRNG.
BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES DATA...OUR EXPECTATION STILL IS THAT
SHORT LNS OF CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH THE
MORE ROBUST DVLPMT NEAR AND E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW UNSTABLE WE`LL GET...AS THE LATEST VSBL
SAT LOOP SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF CLDS FILLING IN WITHIN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ENUF
BREAKS/INSOLATION TO REALIZE AT LEAST 700-1000 J/KG OF ML
CAPE...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN OUR FAR ERN/SERN ZNS. COUPLED WITH
DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 15-20 KT...THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE INTENSE LINEAR TYPE STORMS...WITH
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 1.5-1.8" AND DEEPLY
UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW PROFILES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/TRAINING
ALSO COULD STILL BE AT PLAY. THUS...IN ADDITION TO OUR CONTINUED
MENTION OF THESE THREATS IN THE HWO...WE ADDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTO THE WX GRIDS.

OUR WRN AND NRN ZNS SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE
AFTN...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS AND ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION FORESEEN
HERE WELL INTO THE EVE HRS.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA WHERE MODELS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY BY LATE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON REGION SHOULD BE DRY AS
A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH NE PA IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS. A COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND PRODUCE A S/SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIR. PERIOD WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH MAXES ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NON-RESTRICTIVE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS EAST OF
I-81 OVER NYS AND NEAR I-81 OVER PA. THE MAIN THREATS ARE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, MAINLY NEAR AVP AND RME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH BASES AROUND 4000-6000
FEET. LIGHT FOG (3SM TO 5SM) IS POSSIBLE AT AVP AND ELM TOWARD
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 271704
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
104 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LAST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND LESS HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE... WW 227 (SVR TSTM) HAS BEEN ISSUED...BASICALLY FROM
THE I-81 CORRIDOR EWD. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST DESTABILIZATION HAS
TAKEN PLACE (ML CAPES 750-1500 J/KG THIS AFTN)...ALG WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KT. LOCALLY STG WINDS/HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LN SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT OUR CATSKILL AND
POCONO ZNS BY 21-22Z.

945 AM WED UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST
COSMETIC TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS ARE MOVG INTO OUR NRN/WRN ZNS LATE THIS MRNG.
BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES DATA...OUR EXPECTATION STILL IS THAT
SHORT LNS OF CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH THE
MORE ROBUST DVLPMT NEAR AND E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW UNSTABLE WE`LL GET...AS THE LATEST VSBL
SAT LOOP SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF CLDS FILLING IN WITHIN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ENUF
BREAKS/INSOLATION TO REALIZE AT LEAST 700-1000 J/KG OF ML
CAPE...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN OUR FAR ERN/SERN ZNS. COUPLED WITH
DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 15-20 KT...THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE INTENSE LINEAR TYPE STORMS...WITH
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 1.5-1.8" AND DEEPLY
UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW PROFILES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/TRAINING
ALSO COULD STILL BE AT PLAY. THUS...IN ADDITION TO OUR CONTINUED
MENTION OF THESE THREATS IN THE HWO...WE ADDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTO THE WX GRIDS.

OUR WRN AND NRN ZNS SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE
AFTN...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS AND ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION FORESEEN
HERE WELL INTO THE EVE HRS.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA WHERE MODELS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY BY LATE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON REGION SHOULD BE DRY AS
A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH NE PA IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS. A COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND PRODUCE A S/SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIR. PERIOD WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH MAXES ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NON-RESTRICTIVE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS EAST OF
I-81 OVER NYS AND NEAR I-81 OVER PA. THE MAIN THREATS ARE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, MAINLY NEAR AVP AND RME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH BASES AROUND 4000-6000
FEET. LIGHT FOG (3SM TO 5SM) IS POSSIBLE AT AVP AND ELM TOWARD
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 271704
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
104 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LAST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND LESS HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE... WW 227 (SVR TSTM) HAS BEEN ISSUED...BASICALLY FROM
THE I-81 CORRIDOR EWD. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST DESTABILIZATION HAS
TAKEN PLACE (ML CAPES 750-1500 J/KG THIS AFTN)...ALG WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KT. LOCALLY STG WINDS/HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LN SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT OUR CATSKILL AND
POCONO ZNS BY 21-22Z.

945 AM WED UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST
COSMETIC TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS ARE MOVG INTO OUR NRN/WRN ZNS LATE THIS MRNG.
BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES DATA...OUR EXPECTATION STILL IS THAT
SHORT LNS OF CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH THE
MORE ROBUST DVLPMT NEAR AND E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW UNSTABLE WE`LL GET...AS THE LATEST VSBL
SAT LOOP SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF CLDS FILLING IN WITHIN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ENUF
BREAKS/INSOLATION TO REALIZE AT LEAST 700-1000 J/KG OF ML
CAPE...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN OUR FAR ERN/SERN ZNS. COUPLED WITH
DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 15-20 KT...THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE INTENSE LINEAR TYPE STORMS...WITH
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 1.5-1.8" AND DEEPLY
UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW PROFILES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/TRAINING
ALSO COULD STILL BE AT PLAY. THUS...IN ADDITION TO OUR CONTINUED
MENTION OF THESE THREATS IN THE HWO...WE ADDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTO THE WX GRIDS.

OUR WRN AND NRN ZNS SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE
AFTN...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS AND ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION FORESEEN
HERE WELL INTO THE EVE HRS.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA WHERE MODELS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY BY LATE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON REGION SHOULD BE DRY AS
A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH NE PA IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS. A COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND PRODUCE A S/SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIR. PERIOD WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH MAXES ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NON-RESTRICTIVE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS EAST OF
I-81 OVER NYS AND NEAR I-81 OVER PA. THE MAIN THREATS ARE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, MAINLY NEAR AVP AND RME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH BASES AROUND 4000-6000
FEET. LIGHT FOG (3SM TO 5SM) IS POSSIBLE AT AVP AND ELM TOWARD
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 271704
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
104 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LAST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND LESS HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE... WW 227 (SVR TSTM) HAS BEEN ISSUED...BASICALLY FROM
THE I-81 CORRIDOR EWD. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST DESTABILIZATION HAS
TAKEN PLACE (ML CAPES 750-1500 J/KG THIS AFTN)...ALG WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KT. LOCALLY STG WINDS/HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LN SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT OUR CATSKILL AND
POCONO ZNS BY 21-22Z.

945 AM WED UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST
COSMETIC TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS ARE MOVG INTO OUR NRN/WRN ZNS LATE THIS MRNG.
BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES DATA...OUR EXPECTATION STILL IS THAT
SHORT LNS OF CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH THE
MORE ROBUST DVLPMT NEAR AND E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW UNSTABLE WE`LL GET...AS THE LATEST VSBL
SAT LOOP SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF CLDS FILLING IN WITHIN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ENUF
BREAKS/INSOLATION TO REALIZE AT LEAST 700-1000 J/KG OF ML
CAPE...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN OUR FAR ERN/SERN ZNS. COUPLED WITH
DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 15-20 KT...THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE INTENSE LINEAR TYPE STORMS...WITH
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 1.5-1.8" AND DEEPLY
UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW PROFILES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/TRAINING
ALSO COULD STILL BE AT PLAY. THUS...IN ADDITION TO OUR CONTINUED
MENTION OF THESE THREATS IN THE HWO...WE ADDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTO THE WX GRIDS.

OUR WRN AND NRN ZNS SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE
AFTN...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS AND ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION FORESEEN
HERE WELL INTO THE EVE HRS.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA WHERE MODELS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY BY LATE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON REGION SHOULD BE DRY AS
A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH NE PA IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS. A COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND PRODUCE A S/SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIR. PERIOD WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH MAXES ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NON-RESTRICTIVE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS EAST OF
I-81 OVER NYS AND NEAR I-81 OVER PA. THE MAIN THREATS ARE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, MAINLY NEAR AVP AND RME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH BASES AROUND 4000-6000
FEET. LIGHT FOG (3SM TO 5SM) IS POSSIBLE AT AVP AND ELM TOWARD
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 271704
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
104 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LAST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND LESS HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE... WW 227 (SVR TSTM) HAS BEEN ISSUED...BASICALLY FROM
THE I-81 CORRIDOR EWD. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST DESTABILIZATION HAS
TAKEN PLACE (ML CAPES 750-1500 J/KG THIS AFTN)...ALG WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KT. LOCALLY STG WINDS/HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LN SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT OUR CATSKILL AND
POCONO ZNS BY 21-22Z.

945 AM WED UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST
COSMETIC TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS ARE MOVG INTO OUR NRN/WRN ZNS LATE THIS MRNG.
BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES DATA...OUR EXPECTATION STILL IS THAT
SHORT LNS OF CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH THE
MORE ROBUST DVLPMT NEAR AND E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW UNSTABLE WE`LL GET...AS THE LATEST VSBL
SAT LOOP SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF CLDS FILLING IN WITHIN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ENUF
BREAKS/INSOLATION TO REALIZE AT LEAST 700-1000 J/KG OF ML
CAPE...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN OUR FAR ERN/SERN ZNS. COUPLED WITH
DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 15-20 KT...THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE INTENSE LINEAR TYPE STORMS...WITH
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 1.5-1.8" AND DEEPLY
UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW PROFILES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/TRAINING
ALSO COULD STILL BE AT PLAY. THUS...IN ADDITION TO OUR CONTINUED
MENTION OF THESE THREATS IN THE HWO...WE ADDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTO THE WX GRIDS.

OUR WRN AND NRN ZNS SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE
AFTN...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS AND ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION FORESEEN
HERE WELL INTO THE EVE HRS.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA WHERE MODELS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY BY LATE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON REGION SHOULD BE DRY AS
A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH NE PA IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS. A COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND PRODUCE A S/SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIR. PERIOD WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH MAXES ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NON-RESTRICTIVE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS EAST OF
I-81 OVER NYS AND NEAR I-81 OVER PA. THE MAIN THREATS ARE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, MAINLY NEAR AVP AND RME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH BASES AROUND 4000-6000
FEET. LIGHT FOG (3SM TO 5SM) IS POSSIBLE AT AVP AND ELM TOWARD
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 271632
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1232 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LAST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND LESS HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM WED UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST
COSMETIC TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS ARE MOVG INTO OUR NRN/WRN ZNS LATE THIS MRNG.
BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES DATA...OUR EXPECTATION STILL IS THAT
SHORT LNS OF CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH THE
MORE ROBUST DVLPMT NEAR AND E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW UNSTABLE WE`LL GET...AS THE LATEST VSBL
SAT LOOP SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF CLDS FILLING IN WITHIN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ENUF
BREAKS/INSOLATION TO REALIZE AT LEAST 700-1000 J/KG OF ML
CAPE...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN OUR FAR ERN/SERN ZNS. COUPLED WITH
DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 15-20 KT...THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE INTENSE LINEAR TYPE STORMS...WITH
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 1.5-1.8" AND DEEPLY
UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW PROFILES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/TRAINING
ALSO COULD STILL BE AT PLAY. THUS...IN ADDITION TO OUR CONTINUED
MENTION OF THESE THREATS IN THE HWO...WE ADDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTO THE WX GRIDS.

OUR WRN AND NRN ZNS SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE
AFTN...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS AND ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION FORESEEN
HERE WELL INTO THE EVE HRS.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S.

PREV DISC... EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROF RESIDES IN
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE LEADING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRE- FRONTAL SFC TROF OVER WESTERN PA. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS CNTRL NY AND NE PA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS THEN REACH
THE CENTRAL CWA LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND FINALLY
ERN SECTIONS BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING.
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SVR WX TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR NEAR 15-20 KNOTS. SHEAR VALUES ARE BEST ACROSS CNTRL NY AND
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE ACTIVITY NOT REACHING THE
EASTERN AREAS UNTIL LATER TODAY MODELS SUGGEST BETTER INSTABILITY
HERE WHICH MAKES SENSE. CAPE VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND
WITH BETTER SHEAR AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE LATER TODAY. THE BEST
THREAT APPEARS ALONG AND EAST OF I81 WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY MAY BE REALIZED. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL LOOKS LESS LIKELY AS CAPE DEPICTED ON SOUNDINGS
IS TALL/SKINNY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE.
SINCE AIRMASS IS REALLY JUICY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75", ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED DRAINAGE
FLOODING POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL THIS IN THE HWO.

WILL INCREASE POPS RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY BY LATE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA WHERE MODELS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY BY LATE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON REGION SHOULD BE DRY AS
A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH NE PA IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS. A COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND PRODUCE A S/SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIR. PERIOD WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH MAXES ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NON-RESTRICTIVE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS EAST OF
I-81 OVER NYS AND NEAR I-81 OVER PA. THE MAIN THREATS ARE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, MAINLY NEAR AVP AND RME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH BASES AROUND 4000-6000
FEET. LIGHT FOG (3SM TO 5SM) IS POSSIBLE AT AVP AND ELM TOWARD
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 271632
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1232 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LAST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND LESS HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM WED UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST
COSMETIC TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS ARE MOVG INTO OUR NRN/WRN ZNS LATE THIS MRNG.
BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES DATA...OUR EXPECTATION STILL IS THAT
SHORT LNS OF CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH THE
MORE ROBUST DVLPMT NEAR AND E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW UNSTABLE WE`LL GET...AS THE LATEST VSBL
SAT LOOP SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF CLDS FILLING IN WITHIN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ENUF
BREAKS/INSOLATION TO REALIZE AT LEAST 700-1000 J/KG OF ML
CAPE...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN OUR FAR ERN/SERN ZNS. COUPLED WITH
DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 15-20 KT...THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE INTENSE LINEAR TYPE STORMS...WITH
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 1.5-1.8" AND DEEPLY
UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW PROFILES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/TRAINING
ALSO COULD STILL BE AT PLAY. THUS...IN ADDITION TO OUR CONTINUED
MENTION OF THESE THREATS IN THE HWO...WE ADDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTO THE WX GRIDS.

OUR WRN AND NRN ZNS SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE
AFTN...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS AND ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION FORESEEN
HERE WELL INTO THE EVE HRS.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S.

PREV DISC... EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROF RESIDES IN
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE LEADING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRE- FRONTAL SFC TROF OVER WESTERN PA. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS CNTRL NY AND NE PA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS THEN REACH
THE CENTRAL CWA LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND FINALLY
ERN SECTIONS BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING.
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SVR WX TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR NEAR 15-20 KNOTS. SHEAR VALUES ARE BEST ACROSS CNTRL NY AND
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE ACTIVITY NOT REACHING THE
EASTERN AREAS UNTIL LATER TODAY MODELS SUGGEST BETTER INSTABILITY
HERE WHICH MAKES SENSE. CAPE VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND
WITH BETTER SHEAR AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE LATER TODAY. THE BEST
THREAT APPEARS ALONG AND EAST OF I81 WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY MAY BE REALIZED. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL LOOKS LESS LIKELY AS CAPE DEPICTED ON SOUNDINGS
IS TALL/SKINNY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE.
SINCE AIRMASS IS REALLY JUICY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75", ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED DRAINAGE
FLOODING POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL THIS IN THE HWO.

WILL INCREASE POPS RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY BY LATE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA WHERE MODELS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY BY LATE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON REGION SHOULD BE DRY AS
A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH NE PA IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS. A COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND PRODUCE A S/SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIR. PERIOD WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH MAXES ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NON-RESTRICTIVE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS EAST OF
I-81 OVER NYS AND NEAR I-81 OVER PA. THE MAIN THREATS ARE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, MAINLY NEAR AVP AND RME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH BASES AROUND 4000-6000
FEET. LIGHT FOG (3SM TO 5SM) IS POSSIBLE AT AVP AND ELM TOWARD
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 271542
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1142 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LAST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND LESS HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM WED UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST
COSMETIC TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS ARE MOVG INTO OUR NRN/WRN ZNS LATE THIS MRNG.
BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES DATA...OUR EXPECTATION STILL IS THAT
SHORT LNS OF CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH THE
MORE ROBUST DVLPMT NEAR AND E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW UNSTABLE WE`LL GET...AS THE LATEST VSBL
SAT LOOP SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF CLDS FILLING IN WITHIN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ENUF
BREAKS/INSOLATION TO REALIZE AT LEAST 700-1000 J/KG OF ML
CAPE...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN OUR FAR ERN/SERN ZNS. COUPLED WITH
DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 15-20 KT...THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE INTENSE LINEAR TYPE STORMS...WITH
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 1.5-1.8" AND DEEPLY
UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW PROFILES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/TRAINING
ALSO COULD STILL BE AT PLAY. THUS...IN ADDITION TO OUR CONTINUED
MENTION OF THESE THREATS IN THE HWO...WE ADDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTO THE WX GRIDS.

OUR WRN AND NRN ZNS SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE
AFTN...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS AND ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION FORESEEN
HERE WELL INTO THE EVE HRS.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S.

PREV DISC... EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROF RESIDES IN
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE LEADING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRE- FRONTAL SFC TROF OVER WESTERN PA. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS CNTRL NY AND NE PA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS THEN REACH
THE CENTRAL CWA LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND FINALLY
ERN SECTIONS BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING.
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SVR WX TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR NEAR 15-20 KNOTS. SHEAR VALUES ARE BEST ACROSS CNTRL NY AND
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE ACTIVITY NOT REACHING THE
EASTERN AREAS UNTIL LATER TODAY MODELS SUGGEST BETTER INSTABILITY
HERE WHICH MAKES SENSE. CAPE VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND
WITH BETTER SHEAR AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE LATER TODAY. THE BEST
THREAT APPEARS ALONG AND EAST OF I81 WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY MAY BE REALIZED. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL LOOKS LESS LIKELY AS CAPE DEPICTED ON SOUNDINGS
IS TALL/SKINNY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE.
SINCE AIRMASS IS REALLY JUICY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75", ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED DRAINAGE
FLOODING POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL THIS IN THE HWO.

WILL INCREASE POPS RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY BY LATE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA WHERE MODELS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY BY LATE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON REGION SHOULD BE DRY AS
A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH NE PA IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS. A COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND PRODUCE A S/SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIR. PERIOD WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH MAXES ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. BY MID AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING
CREATING INSTABILITY... TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SOME TSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE. STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT FOR THE MOST PART SHOWERS WILL BE VFR... SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TSRA MAY HAVE LOW END MVFR
VISBYS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS WILL THERE BE FOG.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AS ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT FOLLOWING TODAY`S SHOWERS.
THUS... DECIDED TO ADD BR AT KAVP WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE GREATEST
ATTM. WILL AMD IF NECESSARY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND REMAIN UNDER 12
KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 271542
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1142 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LAST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND LESS HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM WED UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST
COSMETIC TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS ARE MOVG INTO OUR NRN/WRN ZNS LATE THIS MRNG.
BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES DATA...OUR EXPECTATION STILL IS THAT
SHORT LNS OF CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH THE
MORE ROBUST DVLPMT NEAR AND E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW UNSTABLE WE`LL GET...AS THE LATEST VSBL
SAT LOOP SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF CLDS FILLING IN WITHIN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ENUF
BREAKS/INSOLATION TO REALIZE AT LEAST 700-1000 J/KG OF ML
CAPE...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN OUR FAR ERN/SERN ZNS. COUPLED WITH
DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 15-20 KT...THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE INTENSE LINEAR TYPE STORMS...WITH
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 1.5-1.8" AND DEEPLY
UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW PROFILES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/TRAINING
ALSO COULD STILL BE AT PLAY. THUS...IN ADDITION TO OUR CONTINUED
MENTION OF THESE THREATS IN THE HWO...WE ADDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTO THE WX GRIDS.

OUR WRN AND NRN ZNS SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE
AFTN...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS AND ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION FORESEEN
HERE WELL INTO THE EVE HRS.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S.

PREV DISC... EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROF RESIDES IN
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE LEADING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRE- FRONTAL SFC TROF OVER WESTERN PA. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS CNTRL NY AND NE PA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS THEN REACH
THE CENTRAL CWA LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND FINALLY
ERN SECTIONS BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING.
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SVR WX TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR NEAR 15-20 KNOTS. SHEAR VALUES ARE BEST ACROSS CNTRL NY AND
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE ACTIVITY NOT REACHING THE
EASTERN AREAS UNTIL LATER TODAY MODELS SUGGEST BETTER INSTABILITY
HERE WHICH MAKES SENSE. CAPE VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND
WITH BETTER SHEAR AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE LATER TODAY. THE BEST
THREAT APPEARS ALONG AND EAST OF I81 WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY MAY BE REALIZED. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL LOOKS LESS LIKELY AS CAPE DEPICTED ON SOUNDINGS
IS TALL/SKINNY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE.
SINCE AIRMASS IS REALLY JUICY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75", ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED DRAINAGE
FLOODING POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL THIS IN THE HWO.

WILL INCREASE POPS RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY BY LATE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA WHERE MODELS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY BY LATE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON REGION SHOULD BE DRY AS
A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH NE PA IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS. A COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND PRODUCE A S/SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIR. PERIOD WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH MAXES ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. BY MID AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING
CREATING INSTABILITY... TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SOME TSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE. STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT FOR THE MOST PART SHOWERS WILL BE VFR... SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TSRA MAY HAVE LOW END MVFR
VISBYS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS WILL THERE BE FOG.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AS ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT FOLLOWING TODAY`S SHOWERS.
THUS... DECIDED TO ADD BR AT KAVP WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE GREATEST
ATTM. WILL AMD IF NECESSARY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND REMAIN UNDER 12
KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 271352
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
952 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LAST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND LESS HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM WED UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST
COSMETIC TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS ARE MOVG INTO OUR NRN/WRN ZNS LATE THIS MRNG.
BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES DATA...OUR EXPECTATION STILL IS THAT
SHORT LNS OF CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH THE
MORE ROBUST DVLPMT NEAR AND E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW UNSTABLE WE`LL GET...AS THE LATEST VSBL
SAT LOOP SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF CLDS FILLING IN WITHIN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ENUF
BREAKS/INSOLATION TO REALIZE AT LEAST 700-1000 J/KG OF ML
CAPE...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN OUR FAR ERN/SERN ZNS. COUPLED WITH
DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 15-20 KT...THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE INTENSE LINEAR TYPE STORMS...WITH
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 1.5-1.8" AND DEEPLY
UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW PROFILES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/TRAINING
ALSO COULD STILL BE AT PLAY. THUS...IN ADDITION TO OUR CONTINUED
MENTION OF THESE THREATS IN THE HWO...WE ADDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTO THE WX GRIDS.

OUR WRN AND NRN ZNS SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE
AFTN...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS AND ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION FORESEEN
HERE WELL INTO THE EVE HRS.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S.

PREV DISC... EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROF RESIDES IN
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE LEADING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRE- FRONTAL SFC TROF OVER WESTERN PA. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS CNTRL NY AND NE PA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS THEN REACH
THE CENTRAL CWA LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND FINALLY
ERN SECTIONS BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING.
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SVR WX TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR NEAR 15-20 KNOTS. SHEAR VALUES ARE BEST ACROSS CNTRL NY AND
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE ACTIVITY NOT REACHING THE
EASTERN AREAS UNTIL LATER TODAY MODELS SUGGEST BETTER INSTABILITY
HERE WHICH MAKES SENSE. CAPE VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND
WITH BETTER SHEAR AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE LATER TODAY. THE BEST
THREAT APPEARS ALONG AND EAST OF I81 WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY MAY BE REALIZED. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL LOOKS LESS LIKELY AS CAPE DEPICTED ON SOUNDINGS
IS TALL/SKINNY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE.
SINCE AIRMASS IS REALLY JUICY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75", ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED DRAINAGE
FLOODING POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL THIS IN THE HWO.

WILL INCREASE POPS RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY BY LATE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA WHERE MODELS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY BY LATE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON REGION SHOULD BE DRY AS
A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH NE PA IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS. A COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND PRODUCE A S/SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIR. PERIOD WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH MAXES ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST HAS IMPROVED A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT
THE OVERALL PATTERN STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE REGION. 12Z GFS
CONTINUES TO PLUNGE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE
ECMWF AND GGEM-NH ARE A BIT MORE RESTRAINED. THEY STILL GET THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MY AREA...BUT WITH A BIT MORE PROBABILITY OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN PA THAN THE GFS. WILL LEAN WITH
THESE SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC SOLUTIONS AS THE GFS IS AGAIN
PROBABLY BREAKING THE PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE DOWN TOO
QUICKLY. HEADING OUT TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CANADIAN GEM IS
THE MOST BULLISH WITH RETURNING THE WARM FRONT SUPPORTED BY A
MODEST UPPER LEVEL WAVE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE MUCH LESS SUPPORTIVE. WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER NY AND NEPA DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPS COOL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE SATURDAY COLD FRONT AND
SLOWLY REBOUND INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. BY MID AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING
CREATING INSTABILITY... TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SOME TSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE. STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT FOR THE MOST PART SHOWERS WILL BE VFR... SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TSRA MAY HAVE LOW END MVFR
VISBYS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS WILL THERE BE FOG.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AS ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT FOLLOWING TODAY`S SHOWERS.
THUS... DECIDED TO ADD BR AT KAVP WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE GREATEST
ATTM. WILL AMD IF NECESSARY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND REMAIN UNDER 12
KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 271352
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
952 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LAST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND LESS HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM WED UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST
COSMETIC TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS ARE MOVG INTO OUR NRN/WRN ZNS LATE THIS MRNG.
BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES DATA...OUR EXPECTATION STILL IS THAT
SHORT LNS OF CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH THE
MORE ROBUST DVLPMT NEAR AND E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW UNSTABLE WE`LL GET...AS THE LATEST VSBL
SAT LOOP SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF CLDS FILLING IN WITHIN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ENUF
BREAKS/INSOLATION TO REALIZE AT LEAST 700-1000 J/KG OF ML
CAPE...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN OUR FAR ERN/SERN ZNS. COUPLED WITH
DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 15-20 KT...THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE INTENSE LINEAR TYPE STORMS...WITH
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 1.5-1.8" AND DEEPLY
UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW PROFILES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/TRAINING
ALSO COULD STILL BE AT PLAY. THUS...IN ADDITION TO OUR CONTINUED
MENTION OF THESE THREATS IN THE HWO...WE ADDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTO THE WX GRIDS.

OUR WRN AND NRN ZNS SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE
AFTN...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS AND ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION FORESEEN
HERE WELL INTO THE EVE HRS.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S.

PREV DISC... EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROF RESIDES IN
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE LEADING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRE- FRONTAL SFC TROF OVER WESTERN PA. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS CNTRL NY AND NE PA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS THEN REACH
THE CENTRAL CWA LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND FINALLY
ERN SECTIONS BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING.
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SVR WX TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR NEAR 15-20 KNOTS. SHEAR VALUES ARE BEST ACROSS CNTRL NY AND
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE ACTIVITY NOT REACHING THE
EASTERN AREAS UNTIL LATER TODAY MODELS SUGGEST BETTER INSTABILITY
HERE WHICH MAKES SENSE. CAPE VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND
WITH BETTER SHEAR AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE LATER TODAY. THE BEST
THREAT APPEARS ALONG AND EAST OF I81 WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY MAY BE REALIZED. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL LOOKS LESS LIKELY AS CAPE DEPICTED ON SOUNDINGS
IS TALL/SKINNY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE.
SINCE AIRMASS IS REALLY JUICY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75", ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED DRAINAGE
FLOODING POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL THIS IN THE HWO.

WILL INCREASE POPS RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY BY LATE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA WHERE MODELS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY BY LATE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON REGION SHOULD BE DRY AS
A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH NE PA IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS. A COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND PRODUCE A S/SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIR. PERIOD WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH MAXES ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST HAS IMPROVED A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT
THE OVERALL PATTERN STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE REGION. 12Z GFS
CONTINUES TO PLUNGE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE
ECMWF AND GGEM-NH ARE A BIT MORE RESTRAINED. THEY STILL GET THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MY AREA...BUT WITH A BIT MORE PROBABILITY OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN PA THAN THE GFS. WILL LEAN WITH
THESE SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC SOLUTIONS AS THE GFS IS AGAIN
PROBABLY BREAKING THE PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE DOWN TOO
QUICKLY. HEADING OUT TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CANADIAN GEM IS
THE MOST BULLISH WITH RETURNING THE WARM FRONT SUPPORTED BY A
MODEST UPPER LEVEL WAVE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE MUCH LESS SUPPORTIVE. WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER NY AND NEPA DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPS COOL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE SATURDAY COLD FRONT AND
SLOWLY REBOUND INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. BY MID AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING
CREATING INSTABILITY... TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SOME TSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE. STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT FOR THE MOST PART SHOWERS WILL BE VFR... SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TSRA MAY HAVE LOW END MVFR
VISBYS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS WILL THERE BE FOG.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AS ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT FOLLOWING TODAY`S SHOWERS.
THUS... DECIDED TO ADD BR AT KAVP WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE GREATEST
ATTM. WILL AMD IF NECESSARY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND REMAIN UNDER 12
KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...KAH





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