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000
FXUS61 KBGM 070131
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
931 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
NEW YORK TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL SEE ONLY SHORT PERIODS OF RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGS MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS
THAT WERE OVER NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER HAVE DIMINISHED AS
EXPECTED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MORNING ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS UPPER LEVEL
WAVE OVER WRN PA LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SRN FA. CURRENT
FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISC...
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHRA MOVING NORTHWARD INTO C NY
AND NRN PA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS
PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER ERN OHIO/WRN PA. THE ISLD TO SCT SHRA THAT
HAS FORMED OVER C NY AND NRN PA WAS ASSCTD WITH LL MOISTURE ADVTN
IN THE PRESENCE OF THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. SPC MESOANALYSIS
WEBSITE HAS MUCH OF C NY/NE PA BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN
THAT LI/S WERE ALSO NEGATIVE A FEW PARCELS CUD GET HIGH ENUF FOR
TSRA SO HAVE ISLD TSRA IN GRIDS ALONG WITH SHRA THRU EARLY
EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...WE EXPECT THIS ACVTY TO WANE SO HAVE POPS
DROPPING OFF FOR A TIME BTWN 0 AND 6Z AS THE BNDRY LAYER
STABILIZES. LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS INTO NE
PA/SC NY I EXPECT MORE SHRA TO FLARE UP AGAIN SO INCREASE POPS
AFTER 6Z. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AND THERE WILL
BE SOME UPR LVL PV ADVTN ACRS ERN NY CLIPPING OUR ERN ZONES TUE AM
SO WITH INCREASING HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER FORCING
HAVE POPS CLIMBING ACRS OUR ERN ZONES TUE AM. THEN BY AFTERNOON
FORCING IS WEAK AS REGION IS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL PV MAX AND
NEXT FRNT IS STILL WELL WEST OF REGION. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A
LULL TUE PM BUT STILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS. GIVEN CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG THERE CUD BE A FEW
TSRA POP UP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER HERE.

THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF WORKS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TO QUEBEC AND PUSHES A FRONT SOUTH INTO C NY TUE NGT AND
BY EARLY WED NE PA. SINCE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS
FRONT STAYS N OF THE REGION AND THE FRONT COMES THRU DURING THE
NGT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ESP TUESDAY EVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
WHERE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRG LL MOISTURE
ADVTN. NAM SOUNDINGS FOR KELM TUE EVENING HAVE PWATS OVER 2 INCHES
WITH A 40 KNOTS LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE SW. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA TUE PM SO THIS CUD LEAD TO BACK-BUILDING
CELLS. SO WILL CONT TO MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN HWO TUE
NGT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WE WILL HAVE HWO FOR WHOLE AREA BUT
IN THE WORDING EMPHASIZE THE WRN AREAS THE HARDEST AND MAINLY IN
THE EVENING. THE PRECIP SHUD WEAKEN AS IT WORKS INTO OUR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TUE NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR
ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. ALL MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PWATS STILL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES SO SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT...WITH THAT SAID THE FRONT WILL
FLATTEN OUR SOME ACROSS PA WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE LINGERING
ACROSS NE PA THROUGH THE EVENING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL
AS ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHOT AT PRECIP...SOME MODELS SHOW MOISTURE RECOVERING TO LEVELS
WITH PWATS NEARING 1.75 TO 1.9 INCHES ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW BECOMES MORE NW BEHIND THE WAVE AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MS RVR VALLEY...AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND JUST MINOR SFC FEATURE DIFFERENCES...PROVIDING BETTER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LONG TERM TRENDS...BUT TODAY THEY SEEM TO BE GRIPPING ONTO A
SOLUTION AND WILL MOVE THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION WITH THE 12Z
RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO HAVING A VERY SIMILAR LOOK. NW FLOW TO
START THE PERIOD AS RIDGING STARTS TO RETRO FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS. OVER MOST OF THE WEEKEND
WEAK SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE TEMPS JUST ABOVE SEASONAL AVGS AND
CONDITIONS DRY...LATE IN THE WEEKEND A TROUGH WILL START TO BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS...POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF BY
NEXT MONDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL LINGER FOR
AWHILE AND PRODUCE A THREAT FOR VERY WET CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS
PWATS LOOK TO CLIMB. ITS WELL INTO THE FUTURE...AND THINGS MAY
CHANGE IF THE POSITION OF THE CUT OFF SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGES...BUT
DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXISTS ALL TAF SITES IN C NY AND NE PA AT THIS
TIME. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOT OF CLEARING WITH MID AND
HIGHER CLOUDS POISED TO STREAM IN FROM PA. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A S TO SE FLOW OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS STREAMING
NORTHWARD INTO C NY AND NE PA OVERNIGHT THRU 12Z. THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO SATURATE OUT TO AN MVFR LAYER ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN
02Z AND 04Z ACRS KAVP-KELM-KBGM AND KITH AND BY 08Z IN OUR NRN
TAFS OF KSYR AND KRME. WE EXPECT OCNL IFR CONDITIONS AT KBGM-KITH-
KELM AND KAVP AFTER 8-9Z THRU 12Z. THIS AIRMASS HAD A LOT OF IFR
THIS MORNING DOWN IN VA AND MD AND TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THE SAME
AIR MASS WILL BE OVHD TWD 12Z. BY 14-15Z OR SO...A WIND SHIFT TO
THE SW WILL OCCUR IN TANDEM WITH BNDRY LAYER HEATING AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN SCT CUMULUS BY AFTERNOON ALL
TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUE.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...DJN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 070131
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
931 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
NEW YORK TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL SEE ONLY SHORT PERIODS OF RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGS MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS
THAT WERE OVER NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER HAVE DIMINISHED AS
EXPECTED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MORNING ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS UPPER LEVEL
WAVE OVER WRN PA LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SRN FA. CURRENT
FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISC...
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHRA MOVING NORTHWARD INTO C NY
AND NRN PA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS
PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER ERN OHIO/WRN PA. THE ISLD TO SCT SHRA THAT
HAS FORMED OVER C NY AND NRN PA WAS ASSCTD WITH LL MOISTURE ADVTN
IN THE PRESENCE OF THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. SPC MESOANALYSIS
WEBSITE HAS MUCH OF C NY/NE PA BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN
THAT LI/S WERE ALSO NEGATIVE A FEW PARCELS CUD GET HIGH ENUF FOR
TSRA SO HAVE ISLD TSRA IN GRIDS ALONG WITH SHRA THRU EARLY
EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...WE EXPECT THIS ACVTY TO WANE SO HAVE POPS
DROPPING OFF FOR A TIME BTWN 0 AND 6Z AS THE BNDRY LAYER
STABILIZES. LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS INTO NE
PA/SC NY I EXPECT MORE SHRA TO FLARE UP AGAIN SO INCREASE POPS
AFTER 6Z. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AND THERE WILL
BE SOME UPR LVL PV ADVTN ACRS ERN NY CLIPPING OUR ERN ZONES TUE AM
SO WITH INCREASING HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER FORCING
HAVE POPS CLIMBING ACRS OUR ERN ZONES TUE AM. THEN BY AFTERNOON
FORCING IS WEAK AS REGION IS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL PV MAX AND
NEXT FRNT IS STILL WELL WEST OF REGION. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A
LULL TUE PM BUT STILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS. GIVEN CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG THERE CUD BE A FEW
TSRA POP UP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER HERE.

THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF WORKS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TO QUEBEC AND PUSHES A FRONT SOUTH INTO C NY TUE NGT AND
BY EARLY WED NE PA. SINCE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS
FRONT STAYS N OF THE REGION AND THE FRONT COMES THRU DURING THE
NGT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ESP TUESDAY EVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
WHERE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRG LL MOISTURE
ADVTN. NAM SOUNDINGS FOR KELM TUE EVENING HAVE PWATS OVER 2 INCHES
WITH A 40 KNOTS LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE SW. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA TUE PM SO THIS CUD LEAD TO BACK-BUILDING
CELLS. SO WILL CONT TO MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN HWO TUE
NGT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WE WILL HAVE HWO FOR WHOLE AREA BUT
IN THE WORDING EMPHASIZE THE WRN AREAS THE HARDEST AND MAINLY IN
THE EVENING. THE PRECIP SHUD WEAKEN AS IT WORKS INTO OUR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TUE NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR
ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. ALL MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PWATS STILL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES SO SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT...WITH THAT SAID THE FRONT WILL
FLATTEN OUR SOME ACROSS PA WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE LINGERING
ACROSS NE PA THROUGH THE EVENING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL
AS ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHOT AT PRECIP...SOME MODELS SHOW MOISTURE RECOVERING TO LEVELS
WITH PWATS NEARING 1.75 TO 1.9 INCHES ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW BECOMES MORE NW BEHIND THE WAVE AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MS RVR VALLEY...AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND JUST MINOR SFC FEATURE DIFFERENCES...PROVIDING BETTER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LONG TERM TRENDS...BUT TODAY THEY SEEM TO BE GRIPPING ONTO A
SOLUTION AND WILL MOVE THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION WITH THE 12Z
RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO HAVING A VERY SIMILAR LOOK. NW FLOW TO
START THE PERIOD AS RIDGING STARTS TO RETRO FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS. OVER MOST OF THE WEEKEND
WEAK SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE TEMPS JUST ABOVE SEASONAL AVGS AND
CONDITIONS DRY...LATE IN THE WEEKEND A TROUGH WILL START TO BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS...POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF BY
NEXT MONDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL LINGER FOR
AWHILE AND PRODUCE A THREAT FOR VERY WET CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS
PWATS LOOK TO CLIMB. ITS WELL INTO THE FUTURE...AND THINGS MAY
CHANGE IF THE POSITION OF THE CUT OFF SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGES...BUT
DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXISTS ALL TAF SITES IN C NY AND NE PA AT THIS
TIME. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOT OF CLEARING WITH MID AND
HIGHER CLOUDS POISED TO STREAM IN FROM PA. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A S TO SE FLOW OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS STREAMING
NORTHWARD INTO C NY AND NE PA OVERNIGHT THRU 12Z. THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO SATURATE OUT TO AN MVFR LAYER ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN
02Z AND 04Z ACRS KAVP-KELM-KBGM AND KITH AND BY 08Z IN OUR NRN
TAFS OF KSYR AND KRME. WE EXPECT OCNL IFR CONDITIONS AT KBGM-KITH-
KELM AND KAVP AFTER 8-9Z THRU 12Z. THIS AIRMASS HAD A LOT OF IFR
THIS MORNING DOWN IN VA AND MD AND TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THE SAME
AIR MASS WILL BE OVHD TWD 12Z. BY 14-15Z OR SO...A WIND SHIFT TO
THE SW WILL OCCUR IN TANDEM WITH BNDRY LAYER HEATING AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN SCT CUMULUS BY AFTERNOON ALL
TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUE.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...DJN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 062257
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
657 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
NEW YORK TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL SEE ONLY SHORT PERIODS OF RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGS MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHRA MOVING NORTHWARD INTO C NY
AND NRN PA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS
PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER ERN OHIO/WRN PA. THE ISLD TO SCT SHRA THAT
HAS FORMED OVER C NY AND NRN PA WAS ASSCTD WITH LL MOISTURE ADVTN
IN THE PRESENCE OF THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. SPC MESOANALYSIS
WEBSITE HAS MUCH OF C NY/NE PA BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN
THAT LI/S WERE ALSO NEGATIVE A FEW PARCELS CUD GET HIGH ENUF FOR
TSRA SO HAVE ISLD TSRA IN GRIDS ALONG WITH SHRA THRU EARLY
EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...WE EXPECT THIS ACVTY TO WANE SO HAVE POPS
DROPPING OFF FOR A TIME BTWN 0 AND 6Z AS THE BNDRY LAYER
STABILIZES. LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS INTO NE
PA/SC NY I EXPECT MORE SHRA TO FLARE UP AGAIN SO INCREASE POPS
AFTER 6Z. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AND THERE WILL
BE SOME UPR LVL PV ADVTN ACRS ERN NY CLIPPING OUR ERN ZONES TUE AM
SO WITH INCREASING HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER FORCING
HAVE POPS CLIMBING ACRS OUR ERN ZONES TUE AM. THEN BY AFTERNOON
FORCING IS WEAK AS REGION IS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL PV MAX AND
NEXT FRNT IS STILL WELL WEST OF REGION. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A
LULL TUE PM BUT STILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS. GIVEN CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG THERE CUD BE A FEW
TSRA POP UP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER HERE.

THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF WORKS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TO QUEBEC AND PUSHES A FRONT SOUTH INTO C NY TUE NGT AND
BY EARLY WED NE PA. SINCE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS
FRONT STAYS N OF THE REGION AND THE FRONT COMES THRU DURING THE
NGT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ESP TUESDAY EVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
WHERE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRG LL MOISTURE
ADVTN. NAM SOUNDINGS FOR KELM TUE EVENING HAVE PWATS OVER 2 INCHES
WITH A 40 KNOTS LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE SW. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA TUE PM SO THIS CUD LEAD TO BACK-BUILDING
CELLS. SO WILL CONT TO MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN HWO TUE
NGT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WE WILL HAVE HWO FOR WHOLE AREA BUT
IN THE WORDING EMPHASIZE THE WRN AREAS THE HARDEST AND MAINLY IN
THE EVENING. THE PRECIP SHUD WEAKEN AS IT WORKS INTO OUR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TUE NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR
ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. ALL MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PWATS STILL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES SO SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT...WITH THAT SAID THE FRONT WILL
FLATTEN OUR SOME ACROSS PA WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE LINGERING
ACROSS NE PA THROUGH THE EVENING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL
AS ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHOT AT PRECIP...SOME MODELS SHOW MOISTURE RECOVERING TO LEVELS
WITH PWATS NEARING 1.75 TO 1.9 INCHES ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW BECOMES MORE NW BEHIND THE WAVE AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MS RVR VALLEY...AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND JUST MINOR SFC FEATURE DIFFERENCES...PROVIDING BETTER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LONG TERM TRENDS...BUT TODAY THEY SEEM TO BE GRIPPING ONTO A
SOLUTION AND WILL MOVE THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION WITH THE 12Z
RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO HAVING A VERY SIMILAR LOOK. NW FLOW TO
START THE PERIOD AS RIDGING STARTS TO RETRO FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS. OVER MOST OF THE WEEKEND
WEAK SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE TEMPS JUST ABOVE SEASONAL AVGS AND
CONDITIONS DRY...LATE IN THE WEEKEND A TROUGH WILL START TO BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS...POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF BY
NEXT MONDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL LINGER FOR
AWHILE AND PRODUCE A THREAT FOR VERY WET CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS
PWATS LOOK TO CLIMB. ITS WELL INTO THE FUTURE...AND THINGS MAY
CHANGE IF THE POSITION OF THE CUT OFF SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGES...BUT
DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXISTS ALL TAF SITES IN C NY AND NE PA AT THIS
TIME. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOT OF CLEARING WITH MID AND
HIGHER CLOUDS POISED TO STREAM IN FROM PA. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A S TO SE FLOW OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS STREAMING
NORTHWARD INTO C NY AND NE PA OVERNIGHT THRU 12Z. THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO SATURATE OUT TO AN MVFR LAYER ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN
02Z AND 04Z ACRS KAVP-KELM-KBGM AND KITH AND BY 08Z IN OUR NRN
TAFS OF KSYR AND KRME. WE EXPECT OCNL IFR CONDITIONS AT KBGM-KITH-
KELM AND KAVP AFTER 8-9Z THRU 12Z. THIS AIRMASS HAD A LOT OF IFR
THIS MORNING DOWN IN VA AND MD AND TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THE SAME
AIR MASS WILL BE OVHD TWD 12Z. BY 14-15Z OR SO...A WIND SHIFT TO
THE SW WILL OCCUR IN TANDEM WITH BNDRY LAYER HEATING AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN SCT CUMULUS BY AFTERNOON ALL
TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUE.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...DJN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 062257
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
657 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
NEW YORK TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL SEE ONLY SHORT PERIODS OF RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGS MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHRA MOVING NORTHWARD INTO C NY
AND NRN PA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS
PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER ERN OHIO/WRN PA. THE ISLD TO SCT SHRA THAT
HAS FORMED OVER C NY AND NRN PA WAS ASSCTD WITH LL MOISTURE ADVTN
IN THE PRESENCE OF THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. SPC MESOANALYSIS
WEBSITE HAS MUCH OF C NY/NE PA BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN
THAT LI/S WERE ALSO NEGATIVE A FEW PARCELS CUD GET HIGH ENUF FOR
TSRA SO HAVE ISLD TSRA IN GRIDS ALONG WITH SHRA THRU EARLY
EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...WE EXPECT THIS ACVTY TO WANE SO HAVE POPS
DROPPING OFF FOR A TIME BTWN 0 AND 6Z AS THE BNDRY LAYER
STABILIZES. LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS INTO NE
PA/SC NY I EXPECT MORE SHRA TO FLARE UP AGAIN SO INCREASE POPS
AFTER 6Z. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AND THERE WILL
BE SOME UPR LVL PV ADVTN ACRS ERN NY CLIPPING OUR ERN ZONES TUE AM
SO WITH INCREASING HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER FORCING
HAVE POPS CLIMBING ACRS OUR ERN ZONES TUE AM. THEN BY AFTERNOON
FORCING IS WEAK AS REGION IS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL PV MAX AND
NEXT FRNT IS STILL WELL WEST OF REGION. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A
LULL TUE PM BUT STILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS. GIVEN CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG THERE CUD BE A FEW
TSRA POP UP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER HERE.

THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF WORKS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TO QUEBEC AND PUSHES A FRONT SOUTH INTO C NY TUE NGT AND
BY EARLY WED NE PA. SINCE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS
FRONT STAYS N OF THE REGION AND THE FRONT COMES THRU DURING THE
NGT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ESP TUESDAY EVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
WHERE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRG LL MOISTURE
ADVTN. NAM SOUNDINGS FOR KELM TUE EVENING HAVE PWATS OVER 2 INCHES
WITH A 40 KNOTS LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE SW. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA TUE PM SO THIS CUD LEAD TO BACK-BUILDING
CELLS. SO WILL CONT TO MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN HWO TUE
NGT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WE WILL HAVE HWO FOR WHOLE AREA BUT
IN THE WORDING EMPHASIZE THE WRN AREAS THE HARDEST AND MAINLY IN
THE EVENING. THE PRECIP SHUD WEAKEN AS IT WORKS INTO OUR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TUE NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR
ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. ALL MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PWATS STILL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES SO SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT...WITH THAT SAID THE FRONT WILL
FLATTEN OUR SOME ACROSS PA WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE LINGERING
ACROSS NE PA THROUGH THE EVENING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL
AS ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHOT AT PRECIP...SOME MODELS SHOW MOISTURE RECOVERING TO LEVELS
WITH PWATS NEARING 1.75 TO 1.9 INCHES ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW BECOMES MORE NW BEHIND THE WAVE AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MS RVR VALLEY...AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND JUST MINOR SFC FEATURE DIFFERENCES...PROVIDING BETTER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LONG TERM TRENDS...BUT TODAY THEY SEEM TO BE GRIPPING ONTO A
SOLUTION AND WILL MOVE THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION WITH THE 12Z
RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO HAVING A VERY SIMILAR LOOK. NW FLOW TO
START THE PERIOD AS RIDGING STARTS TO RETRO FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS. OVER MOST OF THE WEEKEND
WEAK SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE TEMPS JUST ABOVE SEASONAL AVGS AND
CONDITIONS DRY...LATE IN THE WEEKEND A TROUGH WILL START TO BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS...POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF BY
NEXT MONDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL LINGER FOR
AWHILE AND PRODUCE A THREAT FOR VERY WET CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS
PWATS LOOK TO CLIMB. ITS WELL INTO THE FUTURE...AND THINGS MAY
CHANGE IF THE POSITION OF THE CUT OFF SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGES...BUT
DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXISTS ALL TAF SITES IN C NY AND NE PA AT THIS
TIME. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOT OF CLEARING WITH MID AND
HIGHER CLOUDS POISED TO STREAM IN FROM PA. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A S TO SE FLOW OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS STREAMING
NORTHWARD INTO C NY AND NE PA OVERNIGHT THRU 12Z. THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO SATURATE OUT TO AN MVFR LAYER ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN
02Z AND 04Z ACRS KAVP-KELM-KBGM AND KITH AND BY 08Z IN OUR NRN
TAFS OF KSYR AND KRME. WE EXPECT OCNL IFR CONDITIONS AT KBGM-KITH-
KELM AND KAVP AFTER 8-9Z THRU 12Z. THIS AIRMASS HAD A LOT OF IFR
THIS MORNING DOWN IN VA AND MD AND TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THE SAME
AIR MASS WILL BE OVHD TWD 12Z. BY 14-15Z OR SO...A WIND SHIFT TO
THE SW WILL OCCUR IN TANDEM WITH BNDRY LAYER HEATING AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN SCT CUMULUS BY AFTERNOON ALL
TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUE.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...DJN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 062016
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
416 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
NEW YORK TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL SEE ONLY SHORT PERIODS OF RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGS MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHRA MOVING NORTHWARD INTO C NY
AND NRN PA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS
PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER ERN OHIO/WRN PA. THE ISLD TO SCT SHRA THAT
HAS FORMED OVER C NY AND NRN PA WAS ASSCTD WITH LL MOISTURE ADVTN
IN THE PRESENCE OF THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. SPC MESOANALYSIS
WEBSITE HAS MUCH OF C NY/NE PA BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN
THAT LI/S WERE ALSO NEGATIVE A FEW PARCELS CUD GET HIGH ENUF FOR
TSRA SO HAVE ISLD TSRA IN GRIDS ALONG WITH SHRA THRU EARLY
EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...WE EXPECT THIS ACVTY TO WANE SO HAVE POPS
DROPPING OFF FOR A TIME BTWN 0 AND 6Z AS THE BNDRY LAYER
STABILIZES. LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS INTO NE
PA/SC NY I EXPECT MORE SHRA TO FLARE UP AGAIN SO INCREASE POPS
AFTER 6Z. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AND THERE WILL
BE SOME UPR LVL PV ADVTN ACRS ERN NY CLIPPING OUR ERN ZONES TUE AM
SO WITH INCREASING HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER FORCING
HAVE POPS CLIMBING ACRS OUR ERN ZONES TUE AM. THEN BY AFTERNOON
FORCING IS WEAK AS REGION IS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL PV MAX AND
NEXT FRNT IS STILL WELL WEST OF REGION. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A
LULL TUE PM BUT STILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS. GIVEN CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG THERE CUD BE A FEW
TSRA POP UP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER HERE.

THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF WORKS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TO QUEBEC AND PUSHES A FRONT SOUTH INTO C NY TUE NGT AND
BY EARLY WED NE PA. SINCE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS
FRONT STAYS N OF THE REGION AND THE FRONT COMES THRU DURING THE
NGT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ESP TUESDAY EVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
WHERE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRG LL MOISTURE
ADVTN. NAM SOUNDINGS FOR KELM TUE EVENING HAVE PWATS OVER 2 INCHES
WITH A 40 KNOTS LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE SW. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA TUE PM SO THIS CUD LEAD TO BACK-BUILDING
CELLS. SO WILL CONT TO MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN HWO TUE
NGT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WE WILL HAVE HWO FOR WHOLE AREA BUT
IN THE WORDING EMPHASIZE THE WRN AREAS THE HARDEST AND MAINLY IN
THE EVENING. THE PRECIP SHUD WEAKEN AS IT WORKS INTO OUR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TUE NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR
ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. ALL MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PWATS STILL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES SO SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT...WITH THAT SAID THE FRONT WILL
FLATTEN OUR SOME ACROSS PA WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE LINGERING
ACROSS NE PA THROUGH THE EVENING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL
AS ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHOT AT PRECIP...SOME MODELS SHOW MOISTURE RECOVERING TO LEVELS
WITH PWATS NEARING 1.75 TO 1.9 INCHES ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW BECOMES MORE NW BEHIND THE WAVE AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MS RVR VALLEY...AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND JUST MINOR SFC FEATURE DIFFERENCES...PROVIDING BETTER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LONG TERM TRENDS...BUT TODAY THEY SEEM TO BE GRIPPING ONTO A
SOLUTION AND WILL MOVE THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION WITH THE 12Z
RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO HAVING A VERY SIMILAR LOOK. NW FLOW TO
START THE PERIOD AS RIDGING STARTS TO RETRO FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS. OVER MOST OF THE WEEKEND
WEAK SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE TEMPS JUST ABOVE SEASONAL AVGS AND
CONDITIONS DRY...LATE IN THE WEEKEND A TROUGH WILL START TO BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS...POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF BY
NEXT MONDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL LINGER FOR
AWHILE AND PRODUCE A THREAT FOR VERY WET CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS
PWATS LOOK TO CLIMB. ITS WELL INTO THE FUTURE...AND THINGS MAY
CHANGE IF THE POSITION OF THE CUT OFF SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGES...BUT
DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MFR CIGS HAVE SNUCK NORTHWARD TO AFFECT KELM...KBGM AND KITH ARND
MIDDAY. BUT WITH CONTINUED HEATING OF THE BNDRY LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON CIGS WILL BE MAINLY VFR IN A BKN CUMULUS LAYER
UNDERNEATH THICKENING MID TO HI CLOUDS. FARTHER N...IN KSYR AND
KRME WE EXPECT SCT-BKN VFR CUMULUS. A VFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK
LIKELY WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD TO KRME AND KSYR BTWN 00Z AND 02Z
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO AN MVFR LAYER BTWN 8Z AND 15Z BOTH
SITES. FARTHER S...AFTER SUNSET MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME WIDESPEAD
REST OF TAF SITES FROM 00Z ON. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN THE LOW-LEVELS KBGM LIKELY WILL DROP TO IFR ARND 9Z. ALL TAF
SITES SHUD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z TUE. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISLD TSRA ARND BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENUF TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUE AM.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...DJN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 062016
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
416 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
NEW YORK TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL SEE ONLY SHORT PERIODS OF RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGS MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHRA MOVING NORTHWARD INTO C NY
AND NRN PA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS
PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER ERN OHIO/WRN PA. THE ISLD TO SCT SHRA THAT
HAS FORMED OVER C NY AND NRN PA WAS ASSCTD WITH LL MOISTURE ADVTN
IN THE PRESENCE OF THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. SPC MESOANALYSIS
WEBSITE HAS MUCH OF C NY/NE PA BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN
THAT LI/S WERE ALSO NEGATIVE A FEW PARCELS CUD GET HIGH ENUF FOR
TSRA SO HAVE ISLD TSRA IN GRIDS ALONG WITH SHRA THRU EARLY
EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...WE EXPECT THIS ACVTY TO WANE SO HAVE POPS
DROPPING OFF FOR A TIME BTWN 0 AND 6Z AS THE BNDRY LAYER
STABILIZES. LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS INTO NE
PA/SC NY I EXPECT MORE SHRA TO FLARE UP AGAIN SO INCREASE POPS
AFTER 6Z. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AND THERE WILL
BE SOME UPR LVL PV ADVTN ACRS ERN NY CLIPPING OUR ERN ZONES TUE AM
SO WITH INCREASING HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER FORCING
HAVE POPS CLIMBING ACRS OUR ERN ZONES TUE AM. THEN BY AFTERNOON
FORCING IS WEAK AS REGION IS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL PV MAX AND
NEXT FRNT IS STILL WELL WEST OF REGION. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A
LULL TUE PM BUT STILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS. GIVEN CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG THERE CUD BE A FEW
TSRA POP UP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER HERE.

THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF WORKS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TO QUEBEC AND PUSHES A FRONT SOUTH INTO C NY TUE NGT AND
BY EARLY WED NE PA. SINCE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS
FRONT STAYS N OF THE REGION AND THE FRONT COMES THRU DURING THE
NGT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ESP TUESDAY EVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
WHERE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRG LL MOISTURE
ADVTN. NAM SOUNDINGS FOR KELM TUE EVENING HAVE PWATS OVER 2 INCHES
WITH A 40 KNOTS LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE SW. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA TUE PM SO THIS CUD LEAD TO BACK-BUILDING
CELLS. SO WILL CONT TO MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN HWO TUE
NGT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WE WILL HAVE HWO FOR WHOLE AREA BUT
IN THE WORDING EMPHASIZE THE WRN AREAS THE HARDEST AND MAINLY IN
THE EVENING. THE PRECIP SHUD WEAKEN AS IT WORKS INTO OUR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TUE NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR
ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. ALL MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PWATS STILL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES SO SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT...WITH THAT SAID THE FRONT WILL
FLATTEN OUR SOME ACROSS PA WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE LINGERING
ACROSS NE PA THROUGH THE EVENING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL
AS ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHOT AT PRECIP...SOME MODELS SHOW MOISTURE RECOVERING TO LEVELS
WITH PWATS NEARING 1.75 TO 1.9 INCHES ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW BECOMES MORE NW BEHIND THE WAVE AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MS RVR VALLEY...AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND JUST MINOR SFC FEATURE DIFFERENCES...PROVIDING BETTER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LONG TERM TRENDS...BUT TODAY THEY SEEM TO BE GRIPPING ONTO A
SOLUTION AND WILL MOVE THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION WITH THE 12Z
RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO HAVING A VERY SIMILAR LOOK. NW FLOW TO
START THE PERIOD AS RIDGING STARTS TO RETRO FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS. OVER MOST OF THE WEEKEND
WEAK SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE TEMPS JUST ABOVE SEASONAL AVGS AND
CONDITIONS DRY...LATE IN THE WEEKEND A TROUGH WILL START TO BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS...POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF BY
NEXT MONDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL LINGER FOR
AWHILE AND PRODUCE A THREAT FOR VERY WET CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS
PWATS LOOK TO CLIMB. ITS WELL INTO THE FUTURE...AND THINGS MAY
CHANGE IF THE POSITION OF THE CUT OFF SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGES...BUT
DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MFR CIGS HAVE SNUCK NORTHWARD TO AFFECT KELM...KBGM AND KITH ARND
MIDDAY. BUT WITH CONTINUED HEATING OF THE BNDRY LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON CIGS WILL BE MAINLY VFR IN A BKN CUMULUS LAYER
UNDERNEATH THICKENING MID TO HI CLOUDS. FARTHER N...IN KSYR AND
KRME WE EXPECT SCT-BKN VFR CUMULUS. A VFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK
LIKELY WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD TO KRME AND KSYR BTWN 00Z AND 02Z
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO AN MVFR LAYER BTWN 8Z AND 15Z BOTH
SITES. FARTHER S...AFTER SUNSET MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME WIDESPEAD
REST OF TAF SITES FROM 00Z ON. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN THE LOW-LEVELS KBGM LIKELY WILL DROP TO IFR ARND 9Z. ALL TAF
SITES SHUD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z TUE. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISLD TSRA ARND BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENUF TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUE AM.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...DJN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 062016
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
416 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
NEW YORK TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL SEE ONLY SHORT PERIODS OF RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGS MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHRA MOVING NORTHWARD INTO C NY
AND NRN PA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS
PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER ERN OHIO/WRN PA. THE ISLD TO SCT SHRA THAT
HAS FORMED OVER C NY AND NRN PA WAS ASSCTD WITH LL MOISTURE ADVTN
IN THE PRESENCE OF THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. SPC MESOANALYSIS
WEBSITE HAS MUCH OF C NY/NE PA BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN
THAT LI/S WERE ALSO NEGATIVE A FEW PARCELS CUD GET HIGH ENUF FOR
TSRA SO HAVE ISLD TSRA IN GRIDS ALONG WITH SHRA THRU EARLY
EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...WE EXPECT THIS ACVTY TO WANE SO HAVE POPS
DROPPING OFF FOR A TIME BTWN 0 AND 6Z AS THE BNDRY LAYER
STABILIZES. LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS INTO NE
PA/SC NY I EXPECT MORE SHRA TO FLARE UP AGAIN SO INCREASE POPS
AFTER 6Z. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AND THERE WILL
BE SOME UPR LVL PV ADVTN ACRS ERN NY CLIPPING OUR ERN ZONES TUE AM
SO WITH INCREASING HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER FORCING
HAVE POPS CLIMBING ACRS OUR ERN ZONES TUE AM. THEN BY AFTERNOON
FORCING IS WEAK AS REGION IS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL PV MAX AND
NEXT FRNT IS STILL WELL WEST OF REGION. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A
LULL TUE PM BUT STILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS. GIVEN CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG THERE CUD BE A FEW
TSRA POP UP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER HERE.

THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF WORKS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TO QUEBEC AND PUSHES A FRONT SOUTH INTO C NY TUE NGT AND
BY EARLY WED NE PA. SINCE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS
FRONT STAYS N OF THE REGION AND THE FRONT COMES THRU DURING THE
NGT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ESP TUESDAY EVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
WHERE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRG LL MOISTURE
ADVTN. NAM SOUNDINGS FOR KELM TUE EVENING HAVE PWATS OVER 2 INCHES
WITH A 40 KNOTS LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE SW. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA TUE PM SO THIS CUD LEAD TO BACK-BUILDING
CELLS. SO WILL CONT TO MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN HWO TUE
NGT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WE WILL HAVE HWO FOR WHOLE AREA BUT
IN THE WORDING EMPHASIZE THE WRN AREAS THE HARDEST AND MAINLY IN
THE EVENING. THE PRECIP SHUD WEAKEN AS IT WORKS INTO OUR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TUE NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR
ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. ALL MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PWATS STILL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES SO SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT...WITH THAT SAID THE FRONT WILL
FLATTEN OUR SOME ACROSS PA WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE LINGERING
ACROSS NE PA THROUGH THE EVENING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL
AS ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHOT AT PRECIP...SOME MODELS SHOW MOISTURE RECOVERING TO LEVELS
WITH PWATS NEARING 1.75 TO 1.9 INCHES ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW BECOMES MORE NW BEHIND THE WAVE AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MS RVR VALLEY...AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND JUST MINOR SFC FEATURE DIFFERENCES...PROVIDING BETTER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LONG TERM TRENDS...BUT TODAY THEY SEEM TO BE GRIPPING ONTO A
SOLUTION AND WILL MOVE THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION WITH THE 12Z
RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO HAVING A VERY SIMILAR LOOK. NW FLOW TO
START THE PERIOD AS RIDGING STARTS TO RETRO FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS. OVER MOST OF THE WEEKEND
WEAK SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE TEMPS JUST ABOVE SEASONAL AVGS AND
CONDITIONS DRY...LATE IN THE WEEKEND A TROUGH WILL START TO BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS...POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF BY
NEXT MONDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL LINGER FOR
AWHILE AND PRODUCE A THREAT FOR VERY WET CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS
PWATS LOOK TO CLIMB. ITS WELL INTO THE FUTURE...AND THINGS MAY
CHANGE IF THE POSITION OF THE CUT OFF SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGES...BUT
DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MFR CIGS HAVE SNUCK NORTHWARD TO AFFECT KELM...KBGM AND KITH ARND
MIDDAY. BUT WITH CONTINUED HEATING OF THE BNDRY LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON CIGS WILL BE MAINLY VFR IN A BKN CUMULUS LAYER
UNDERNEATH THICKENING MID TO HI CLOUDS. FARTHER N...IN KSYR AND
KRME WE EXPECT SCT-BKN VFR CUMULUS. A VFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK
LIKELY WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD TO KRME AND KSYR BTWN 00Z AND 02Z
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO AN MVFR LAYER BTWN 8Z AND 15Z BOTH
SITES. FARTHER S...AFTER SUNSET MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME WIDESPEAD
REST OF TAF SITES FROM 00Z ON. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN THE LOW-LEVELS KBGM LIKELY WILL DROP TO IFR ARND 9Z. ALL TAF
SITES SHUD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z TUE. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISLD TSRA ARND BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENUF TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUE AM.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...DJN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 062016
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
416 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
NEW YORK TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL SEE ONLY SHORT PERIODS OF RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGS MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHRA MOVING NORTHWARD INTO C NY
AND NRN PA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS
PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER ERN OHIO/WRN PA. THE ISLD TO SCT SHRA THAT
HAS FORMED OVER C NY AND NRN PA WAS ASSCTD WITH LL MOISTURE ADVTN
IN THE PRESENCE OF THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. SPC MESOANALYSIS
WEBSITE HAS MUCH OF C NY/NE PA BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN
THAT LI/S WERE ALSO NEGATIVE A FEW PARCELS CUD GET HIGH ENUF FOR
TSRA SO HAVE ISLD TSRA IN GRIDS ALONG WITH SHRA THRU EARLY
EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...WE EXPECT THIS ACVTY TO WANE SO HAVE POPS
DROPPING OFF FOR A TIME BTWN 0 AND 6Z AS THE BNDRY LAYER
STABILIZES. LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS INTO NE
PA/SC NY I EXPECT MORE SHRA TO FLARE UP AGAIN SO INCREASE POPS
AFTER 6Z. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AND THERE WILL
BE SOME UPR LVL PV ADVTN ACRS ERN NY CLIPPING OUR ERN ZONES TUE AM
SO WITH INCREASING HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER FORCING
HAVE POPS CLIMBING ACRS OUR ERN ZONES TUE AM. THEN BY AFTERNOON
FORCING IS WEAK AS REGION IS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL PV MAX AND
NEXT FRNT IS STILL WELL WEST OF REGION. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A
LULL TUE PM BUT STILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS. GIVEN CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG THERE CUD BE A FEW
TSRA POP UP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER HERE.

THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF WORKS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TO QUEBEC AND PUSHES A FRONT SOUTH INTO C NY TUE NGT AND
BY EARLY WED NE PA. SINCE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS
FRONT STAYS N OF THE REGION AND THE FRONT COMES THRU DURING THE
NGT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ESP TUESDAY EVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
WHERE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRG LL MOISTURE
ADVTN. NAM SOUNDINGS FOR KELM TUE EVENING HAVE PWATS OVER 2 INCHES
WITH A 40 KNOTS LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE SW. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA TUE PM SO THIS CUD LEAD TO BACK-BUILDING
CELLS. SO WILL CONT TO MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN HWO TUE
NGT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WE WILL HAVE HWO FOR WHOLE AREA BUT
IN THE WORDING EMPHASIZE THE WRN AREAS THE HARDEST AND MAINLY IN
THE EVENING. THE PRECIP SHUD WEAKEN AS IT WORKS INTO OUR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TUE NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR
ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. ALL MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PWATS STILL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES SO SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT...WITH THAT SAID THE FRONT WILL
FLATTEN OUR SOME ACROSS PA WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE LINGERING
ACROSS NE PA THROUGH THE EVENING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL
AS ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHOT AT PRECIP...SOME MODELS SHOW MOISTURE RECOVERING TO LEVELS
WITH PWATS NEARING 1.75 TO 1.9 INCHES ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW BECOMES MORE NW BEHIND THE WAVE AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MS RVR VALLEY...AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND JUST MINOR SFC FEATURE DIFFERENCES...PROVIDING BETTER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LONG TERM TRENDS...BUT TODAY THEY SEEM TO BE GRIPPING ONTO A
SOLUTION AND WILL MOVE THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION WITH THE 12Z
RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO HAVING A VERY SIMILAR LOOK. NW FLOW TO
START THE PERIOD AS RIDGING STARTS TO RETRO FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS. OVER MOST OF THE WEEKEND
WEAK SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE TEMPS JUST ABOVE SEASONAL AVGS AND
CONDITIONS DRY...LATE IN THE WEEKEND A TROUGH WILL START TO BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS...POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF BY
NEXT MONDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL LINGER FOR
AWHILE AND PRODUCE A THREAT FOR VERY WET CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS
PWATS LOOK TO CLIMB. ITS WELL INTO THE FUTURE...AND THINGS MAY
CHANGE IF THE POSITION OF THE CUT OFF SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGES...BUT
DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MFR CIGS HAVE SNUCK NORTHWARD TO AFFECT KELM...KBGM AND KITH ARND
MIDDAY. BUT WITH CONTINUED HEATING OF THE BNDRY LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON CIGS WILL BE MAINLY VFR IN A BKN CUMULUS LAYER
UNDERNEATH THICKENING MID TO HI CLOUDS. FARTHER N...IN KSYR AND
KRME WE EXPECT SCT-BKN VFR CUMULUS. A VFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK
LIKELY WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD TO KRME AND KSYR BTWN 00Z AND 02Z
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO AN MVFR LAYER BTWN 8Z AND 15Z BOTH
SITES. FARTHER S...AFTER SUNSET MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME WIDESPEAD
REST OF TAF SITES FROM 00Z ON. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN THE LOW-LEVELS KBGM LIKELY WILL DROP TO IFR ARND 9Z. ALL TAF
SITES SHUD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z TUE. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISLD TSRA ARND BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENUF TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUE AM.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...DJN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 061745
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH NEW YORK TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE ONLY SHORT PERIODS OF RAIN. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WAS SUPPORTING A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR UP THRU PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO NEW YORK WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND BE COINCIDENT WITH THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. HENCE MODEL
MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE PROJECTED TO BE ARND 500 TO 1000 J/KG. WIND
SHEAR WAS WEAK AND THE FORCING WAS ALSO WEAK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW SHEARS OUT. HENCE HAVE CHC POPS SHRA/TSRA GRADUALLY SPREADING
NORTH AND EAST ACRS NE PA AND C NY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
POPS PEAK AT LIKELY IN OUR SW COUNTIES INCLUDING BRADFORD CO PA
AND STEUBEN NY BTWN 21Z AND 00Z. REST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE ISLD
TO SCT SHRA/TSRA. TWEAKED MAXES AS MORE EXTESIVE CLOUD COVER IS
WORKING NORTHWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH OF THE SAME LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE WEAK UPR LVL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY WITH THE ADDED DAYTIME HEATING. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR AREA AS MODELS TIME THE TROF AXIS THROUGH THE WESTERN
HALF BY 18Z TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN A SQUEEZE PLAY
BETWEEN THIS WEAK SYSTEM AND THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE THE
BACKING OF A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED JET
DYNAMICS...AND THUS BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME DECENT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CLIPS OUR AREA WITH A
MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR SVR WX UP UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO
SEE WHAT THE NEW DAY 3 SAYS...BUT OUR MAIN THINKING IS THAT ANY
STORMS FROM TUES NIGHT- WEDS WOULD BE TORRENTIAL RAIN PRODUCERS AS
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PSEUDO-TROPICAL
WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING TO OVER 2 INCHES IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOISTURE VALUES ALREADY OF THIS MAGNITUDE
EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

BLENDED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS HAVE SNUCK NORTHWARD TO AFFECT KELM...KBGM AND KITH ARND
MIDDAY. BUT WITH CONTINUED HEATING OF THE BNDRY LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON CIGS WILL BE MAINLY VFR IN A BKN CUMULUS LAYER
UNDERNEATH THICKENING MID TO HI CLOUDS. FARTHER N...IN KSYR AND
KRME WE EXPECT SCT-BKN VFR CUMULUS. A VFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK
LIKELY WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD TO KRME AND KSYR BTWN 00Z AND 02Z
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO AN MVFR LAYER BTWN 8Z AND 15Z BOTH
SITES. FARTHER S...AFTER SUNSET MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME WIDESPEAD
REST OF TAF SITES FROM 00Z ON. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN THE LOW-LEVELS KBGM LIKELY WILL DROP TO IFR ARND 9Z. ALL TAF
SITES SHUD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z TUE. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISLD TSRA ARND BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUE AM.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 061430
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1030 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...AND THROUGH NEW YORK TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL SEE ONLY SHORT PERIODS OF RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE REST OF THE WEEK ALSO LOOKS
UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030AM UPDATE...LITTLE TWEAK TO CURRENT TEMPS AND DEPWTS...BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER VIRGINIA WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO
PENNSYLVANIA WHILE WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS...
ALONG WITH THE THIN SMOKE VEIL FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES...WILL
TEMPER AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL GENERALLY A MILD SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED. SOME SHOWERS...OR A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL WORK INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE LOW
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FILL...THERE SEEMS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING FOR ANYTHING ORGANIZED. MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY...AND THOSE
THAT PICK UP A FEW SHOWERS CAN EXPECT OVERALL RAIN TIME TODAY TO
BE BRIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH OF THE SAME LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE WEAK UPR LVL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY WITH THE ADDED DAYTIME HEATING. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR AREA AS MODELS TIME THE TROF AXIS THROUGH THE WESTERN
HALF BY 18Z TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN A SQUEEZE PLAY
BETWEEN THIS WEAK SYSTEM AND THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE THE
BACKING OF A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED JET
DYNAMICS...AND THUS BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME DECENT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CLIPS OUR AREA WITH A
MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR SVR WX UP UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO
SEE WHAT THE NEW DAY 3 SAYS...BUT OUR MAIN THINKING IS THAT ANY
STORMS FROM TUES NIGHT- WEDS WOULD BE TORRENTIAL RAIN PRODUCERS AS
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PSEUDO-TROPICAL
WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING TO OVER 2 INCHES IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOISTURE VALUES ALREADY OF THIS MAGNITUDE
EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

BLENDED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY UPDATE... AFTER RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF AT
KELM BY 13-14Z...VFR IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL BE
WIDELY SEPARATED IN NATURE...AND UNLIKELY TO BRING ANY SUSTAINED
RESTRICTIONS.

LATER TONIGHT...LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION...AND WE`VE THUS INDICATED MVFR RESTRICTIONS BY 03-06Z AT
MOST TERMINAL SITES...WITH A SOMEWHAT LATER ONSET TIME FOR KRME
(AROUND 08Z).

SURFACE WINDS 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL AVERAGE 5-10 KT
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...ABS/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 061430
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1030 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...AND THROUGH NEW YORK TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL SEE ONLY SHORT PERIODS OF RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE REST OF THE WEEK ALSO LOOKS
UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030AM UPDATE...LITTLE TWEAK TO CURRENT TEMPS AND DEPWTS...BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER VIRGINIA WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO
PENNSYLVANIA WHILE WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS...
ALONG WITH THE THIN SMOKE VEIL FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES...WILL
TEMPER AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL GENERALLY A MILD SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED. SOME SHOWERS...OR A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL WORK INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE LOW
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FILL...THERE SEEMS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING FOR ANYTHING ORGANIZED. MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY...AND THOSE
THAT PICK UP A FEW SHOWERS CAN EXPECT OVERALL RAIN TIME TODAY TO
BE BRIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH OF THE SAME LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE WEAK UPR LVL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY WITH THE ADDED DAYTIME HEATING. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR AREA AS MODELS TIME THE TROF AXIS THROUGH THE WESTERN
HALF BY 18Z TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN A SQUEEZE PLAY
BETWEEN THIS WEAK SYSTEM AND THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE THE
BACKING OF A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED JET
DYNAMICS...AND THUS BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME DECENT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CLIPS OUR AREA WITH A
MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR SVR WX UP UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO
SEE WHAT THE NEW DAY 3 SAYS...BUT OUR MAIN THINKING IS THAT ANY
STORMS FROM TUES NIGHT- WEDS WOULD BE TORRENTIAL RAIN PRODUCERS AS
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PSEUDO-TROPICAL
WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING TO OVER 2 INCHES IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOISTURE VALUES ALREADY OF THIS MAGNITUDE
EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

BLENDED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY UPDATE... AFTER RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF AT
KELM BY 13-14Z...VFR IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL BE
WIDELY SEPARATED IN NATURE...AND UNLIKELY TO BRING ANY SUSTAINED
RESTRICTIONS.

LATER TONIGHT...LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION...AND WE`VE THUS INDICATED MVFR RESTRICTIONS BY 03-06Z AT
MOST TERMINAL SITES...WITH A SOMEWHAT LATER ONSET TIME FOR KRME
(AROUND 08Z).

SURFACE WINDS 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL AVERAGE 5-10 KT
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...ABS/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 061057
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
657 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...AND THROUGH NEW YORK TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL SEE ONLY SHORT PERIODS OF RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE REST OF THE WEEK ALSO LOOKS
UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER VIRGINIA WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO
PENNSYLVANIA WHILE WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS...
ALONG WITH THE THIN SMOKE VEIL FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES...WILL
TEMPER AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL GENERALLY A MILD SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED. SOME SHOWERS...OR A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL WORK INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE LOW
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FILL...THERE SEEMS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING FOR ANYTHING ORGANIZED. MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY...AND THOSE
THAT PICK UP A FEW SHOWERS CAN EXPECT OVERALL RAIN TIME TODAY TO
BE BRIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH OF THE SAME LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE WEAK UPR LVL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY WITH THE ADDED DAYTIME HEATING. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR AREA AS MODELS TIME THE TROF AXIS THROUGH THE WESTERN
HALF BY 18Z TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN A SQUEEZE PLAY
BETWEEN THIS WEAK SYSTEM AND THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE THE
BACKING OF A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED JET
DYNAMICS...AND THUS BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME DECENT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CLIPS OUR AREA WITH A
MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR SVR WX UP UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO
SEE WHAT THE NEW DAY 3 SAYS...BUT OUR MAIN THINKING IS THAT ANY
STORMS FROM TUES NIGHT- WEDS WOULD BE TORRENTIAL RAIN PRODUCERS AS
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PSEUDO-TROPICAL
WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING TO OVER 2 INCHES IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOISTURE VALUES ALREADY OF THIS MAGNITUDE
EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

BLENDED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY UPDATE... AFTER RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF AT
KELM BY 13-14Z...VFR IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL BE
WIDELY SEPARATED IN NATURE...AND UNLIKELY TO BRING ANY SUSTAINED
RESTRICTIONS.

LATER TONIGHT...LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION...AND WE`VE THUS INDICATED MVFR RESTRICTIONS BY 03-06Z AT
MOST TERMINAL SITES...WITH A SOMEWHAT LATER ONSET TIME FOR KRME
(AROUND 08Z).

SURFACE WINDS 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL AVERAGE 5-10 KT
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 061057
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
657 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...AND THROUGH NEW YORK TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL SEE ONLY SHORT PERIODS OF RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE REST OF THE WEEK ALSO LOOKS
UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER VIRGINIA WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO
PENNSYLVANIA WHILE WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS...
ALONG WITH THE THIN SMOKE VEIL FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES...WILL
TEMPER AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL GENERALLY A MILD SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED. SOME SHOWERS...OR A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL WORK INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE LOW
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FILL...THERE SEEMS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING FOR ANYTHING ORGANIZED. MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY...AND THOSE
THAT PICK UP A FEW SHOWERS CAN EXPECT OVERALL RAIN TIME TODAY TO
BE BRIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH OF THE SAME LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE WEAK UPR LVL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY WITH THE ADDED DAYTIME HEATING. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR AREA AS MODELS TIME THE TROF AXIS THROUGH THE WESTERN
HALF BY 18Z TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN A SQUEEZE PLAY
BETWEEN THIS WEAK SYSTEM AND THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE THE
BACKING OF A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED JET
DYNAMICS...AND THUS BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME DECENT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CLIPS OUR AREA WITH A
MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR SVR WX UP UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO
SEE WHAT THE NEW DAY 3 SAYS...BUT OUR MAIN THINKING IS THAT ANY
STORMS FROM TUES NIGHT- WEDS WOULD BE TORRENTIAL RAIN PRODUCERS AS
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PSEUDO-TROPICAL
WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING TO OVER 2 INCHES IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOISTURE VALUES ALREADY OF THIS MAGNITUDE
EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

BLENDED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY UPDATE... AFTER RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF AT
KELM BY 13-14Z...VFR IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL BE
WIDELY SEPARATED IN NATURE...AND UNLIKELY TO BRING ANY SUSTAINED
RESTRICTIONS.

LATER TONIGHT...LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION...AND WE`VE THUS INDICATED MVFR RESTRICTIONS BY 03-06Z AT
MOST TERMINAL SITES...WITH A SOMEWHAT LATER ONSET TIME FOR KRME
(AROUND 08Z).

SURFACE WINDS 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL AVERAGE 5-10 KT
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 060704
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
304 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...AND THROUGH NEW YORK TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL SEE ONLY SHORT PERIODS OF RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE REST OF THE WEEK ALSO LOOKS
UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER VIRGINIA WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO
PENNSYLVANIA WHILE WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS...
ALONG WITH THE THIN SMOKE VEIL FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES...WILL
TEMPER AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL GENERALLY A MILD SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED. SOME SHOWERS...OR A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL WORK INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE LOW
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FILL...THERE SEEMS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING FOR ANYTHING ORGANIZED. MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY...AND THOSE
THAT PICK UP A FEW SHOWERS CAN EXPECT OVERALL RAIN TIME TODAY TO
BE BRIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH OF THE SAME LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE WEAK UPR LVL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY WITH THE ADDED DAYTIME HEATING. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR AREA AS MODELS TIME THE TROF AXIS THROUGH THE WESTERN
HALF BY 18Z TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN A SQUEEZE PLAY
BETWEEN THIS WEAK SYSTEM AND THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE THE
BACKING OF A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED JET
DYNAMICS...AND THUS BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME DECENT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CLIPS OUR AREA WITH A
MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR SVR WX UP UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO
SEE WHAT THE NEW DAY 3 SAYS...BUT OUR MAIN THINKING IS THAT ANY
STORMS FROM TUES NIGHT- WEDS WOULD BE TORRENTIAL RAIN PRODUCERS AS
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PSEUDO-TROPICAL
WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING TO OVER 2 INCHES IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOISTURE VALUES ALREADY OF THIS MAGNITUDE
EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

BLENDED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY UPDATE... MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
KELM...WHERE VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...COULD BRING IFR
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

ANY LIGHT SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL BE WIDELY
SEPARATED IN NATURE...AND UNLIKELY TO BRING ANY SUSTAINED
RESTRICTIONS.

SURFACE WINDS 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL AVERAGE 5-8 KT
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 060704
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
304 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...AND THROUGH NEW YORK TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL SEE ONLY SHORT PERIODS OF RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE REST OF THE WEEK ALSO LOOKS
UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER VIRGINIA WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO
PENNSYLVANIA WHILE WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS...
ALONG WITH THE THIN SMOKE VEIL FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES...WILL
TEMPER AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL GENERALLY A MILD SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED. SOME SHOWERS...OR A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL WORK INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE LOW
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FILL...THERE SEEMS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING FOR ANYTHING ORGANIZED. MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY...AND THOSE
THAT PICK UP A FEW SHOWERS CAN EXPECT OVERALL RAIN TIME TODAY TO
BE BRIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH OF THE SAME LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE WEAK UPR LVL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY WITH THE ADDED DAYTIME HEATING. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR AREA AS MODELS TIME THE TROF AXIS THROUGH THE WESTERN
HALF BY 18Z TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN A SQUEEZE PLAY
BETWEEN THIS WEAK SYSTEM AND THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE THE
BACKING OF A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED JET
DYNAMICS...AND THUS BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME DECENT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CLIPS OUR AREA WITH A
MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR SVR WX UP UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO
SEE WHAT THE NEW DAY 3 SAYS...BUT OUR MAIN THINKING IS THAT ANY
STORMS FROM TUES NIGHT- WEDS WOULD BE TORRENTIAL RAIN PRODUCERS AS
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PSEUDO-TROPICAL
WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING TO OVER 2 INCHES IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOISTURE VALUES ALREADY OF THIS MAGNITUDE
EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

BLENDED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY UPDATE... MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
KELM...WHERE VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...COULD BRING IFR
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

ANY LIGHT SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL BE WIDELY
SEPARATED IN NATURE...AND UNLIKELY TO BRING ANY SUSTAINED
RESTRICTIONS.

SURFACE WINDS 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL AVERAGE 5-8 KT
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 060704
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
304 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...AND THROUGH NEW YORK TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL SEE ONLY SHORT PERIODS OF RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE REST OF THE WEEK ALSO LOOKS
UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER VIRGINIA WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO
PENNSYLVANIA WHILE WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS...
ALONG WITH THE THIN SMOKE VEIL FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES...WILL
TEMPER AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL GENERALLY A MILD SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED. SOME SHOWERS...OR A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL WORK INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE LOW
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FILL...THERE SEEMS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING FOR ANYTHING ORGANIZED. MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY...AND THOSE
THAT PICK UP A FEW SHOWERS CAN EXPECT OVERALL RAIN TIME TODAY TO
BE BRIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH OF THE SAME LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE WEAK UPR LVL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY WITH THE ADDED DAYTIME HEATING. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR AREA AS MODELS TIME THE TROF AXIS THROUGH THE WESTERN
HALF BY 18Z TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN A SQUEEZE PLAY
BETWEEN THIS WEAK SYSTEM AND THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE THE
BACKING OF A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED JET
DYNAMICS...AND THUS BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME DECENT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CLIPS OUR AREA WITH A
MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR SVR WX UP UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO
SEE WHAT THE NEW DAY 3 SAYS...BUT OUR MAIN THINKING IS THAT ANY
STORMS FROM TUES NIGHT- WEDS WOULD BE TORRENTIAL RAIN PRODUCERS AS
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PSEUDO-TROPICAL
WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING TO OVER 2 INCHES IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOISTURE VALUES ALREADY OF THIS MAGNITUDE
EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

BLENDED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY UPDATE... MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
KELM...WHERE VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...COULD BRING IFR
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

ANY LIGHT SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL BE WIDELY
SEPARATED IN NATURE...AND UNLIKELY TO BRING ANY SUSTAINED
RESTRICTIONS.

SURFACE WINDS 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL AVERAGE 5-8 KT
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 060704
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
304 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...AND THROUGH NEW YORK TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL SEE ONLY SHORT PERIODS OF RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE REST OF THE WEEK ALSO LOOKS
UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER VIRGINIA WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO
PENNSYLVANIA WHILE WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS...
ALONG WITH THE THIN SMOKE VEIL FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES...WILL
TEMPER AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL GENERALLY A MILD SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED. SOME SHOWERS...OR A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL WORK INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE LOW
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FILL...THERE SEEMS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING FOR ANYTHING ORGANIZED. MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY...AND THOSE
THAT PICK UP A FEW SHOWERS CAN EXPECT OVERALL RAIN TIME TODAY TO
BE BRIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH OF THE SAME LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE WEAK UPR LVL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY WITH THE ADDED DAYTIME HEATING. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR AREA AS MODELS TIME THE TROF AXIS THROUGH THE WESTERN
HALF BY 18Z TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN A SQUEEZE PLAY
BETWEEN THIS WEAK SYSTEM AND THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE THE
BACKING OF A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED JET
DYNAMICS...AND THUS BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME DECENT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CLIPS OUR AREA WITH A
MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR SVR WX UP UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO
SEE WHAT THE NEW DAY 3 SAYS...BUT OUR MAIN THINKING IS THAT ANY
STORMS FROM TUES NIGHT- WEDS WOULD BE TORRENTIAL RAIN PRODUCERS AS
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PSEUDO-TROPICAL
WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING TO OVER 2 INCHES IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOISTURE VALUES ALREADY OF THIS MAGNITUDE
EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

BLENDED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY UPDATE... MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
KELM...WHERE VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...COULD BRING IFR
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

ANY LIGHT SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL BE WIDELY
SEPARATED IN NATURE...AND UNLIKELY TO BRING ANY SUSTAINED
RESTRICTIONS.

SURFACE WINDS 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL AVERAGE 5-8 KT
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 060603
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
203 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE DRY AND QUIET OVERNIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
HAD TO EDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR A FEW SPOTS WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST THAN EXPECTED...INCLUDING
ITHACA...AND VALLEYS OF THE UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN
CATSKILLS AREAS. OTHER THAN THAT...FORECAST IN FINE SHAPE.

730 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH QUIET NIGHT IN STORE ALONG WITH DEEP RED
SUNSET AND COPPERY MOON DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE TRANSLATING ALL THE
WAY OVER FROM NORTHERN AND WESTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY IN MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY...CONTINUES TO APPROACH. IT
APPEARS THAT THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE ENOUGH GAPS TO
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS PATCHY FOG IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE TWIN TIERS...HAVE ADDED ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MIXTURE OF FAIR WX CU...HI CLDS...AND LGT SMOKE OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTN. STILL...MSTLY SUNNY CONDS PREVAIL AND WILL CONT TO DO
SO INTO THE EVE. NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPR LOW DRFTG NWRD WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS INTO WRN PA. ALL MODELS SEEMS TO AGREE THAT THE
FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHEAR IN THE DVLPG SW FLOW OVER THE ERN
US. QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA AS THE UPR FRCG WEAKENS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMT
AND TIMING OF THE APRCHG PCPN SHIELD. WILL INCRS THE CLDS OVRNGT
BUT KEEP ONLY SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE OVER THE XTRM SWRN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD IN ACCORDANCE TO LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINS OF THE UPR LOW CONTS TO DRFT NWRD IN THE SHRT TERM. SLGTLY
LWRD HGTS AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCRSG LL MOISTURE
AND TEMPS DEFINITELY CALL FOR CHANCE POPS THRU THE PD. PEAK HTG
WILL ALIGN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WV BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONV TUE AFTN OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND AGAIN ON WED AS THE COLD
FNT APRCHS. MUCH OF THE PD SHD BE DRY HWVR...AND WRM AS HGTS FNLY
RCH NEAR SEASONAL LVLS.

ABV MENTIONED COLD FNT IS APRCHG THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PD
AND LIKELY TRIGGER TRWS WED AFTN.

TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR AFTN HI/S THRU THE PD WITH RDGG OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY UPDATE... MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
KELM...WHERE VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...COULD BRING IFR
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

ANY LIGHT SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL BE WIDELY
SEPARATED IN NATURE...AND UNLIKELY TO BRING ANY SUSTAINED
RESTRICTIONS.

SURFACE WINDS 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL AVERAGE 5-8 KT
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 060603
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
203 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE DRY AND QUIET OVERNIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
HAD TO EDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR A FEW SPOTS WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST THAN EXPECTED...INCLUDING
ITHACA...AND VALLEYS OF THE UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN
CATSKILLS AREAS. OTHER THAN THAT...FORECAST IN FINE SHAPE.

730 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH QUIET NIGHT IN STORE ALONG WITH DEEP RED
SUNSET AND COPPERY MOON DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE TRANSLATING ALL THE
WAY OVER FROM NORTHERN AND WESTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY IN MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY...CONTINUES TO APPROACH. IT
APPEARS THAT THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE ENOUGH GAPS TO
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS PATCHY FOG IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE TWIN TIERS...HAVE ADDED ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MIXTURE OF FAIR WX CU...HI CLDS...AND LGT SMOKE OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTN. STILL...MSTLY SUNNY CONDS PREVAIL AND WILL CONT TO DO
SO INTO THE EVE. NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPR LOW DRFTG NWRD WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS INTO WRN PA. ALL MODELS SEEMS TO AGREE THAT THE
FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHEAR IN THE DVLPG SW FLOW OVER THE ERN
US. QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA AS THE UPR FRCG WEAKENS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMT
AND TIMING OF THE APRCHG PCPN SHIELD. WILL INCRS THE CLDS OVRNGT
BUT KEEP ONLY SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE OVER THE XTRM SWRN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD IN ACCORDANCE TO LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINS OF THE UPR LOW CONTS TO DRFT NWRD IN THE SHRT TERM. SLGTLY
LWRD HGTS AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCRSG LL MOISTURE
AND TEMPS DEFINITELY CALL FOR CHANCE POPS THRU THE PD. PEAK HTG
WILL ALIGN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WV BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONV TUE AFTN OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND AGAIN ON WED AS THE COLD
FNT APRCHS. MUCH OF THE PD SHD BE DRY HWVR...AND WRM AS HGTS FNLY
RCH NEAR SEASONAL LVLS.

ABV MENTIONED COLD FNT IS APRCHG THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PD
AND LIKELY TRIGGER TRWS WED AFTN.

TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR AFTN HI/S THRU THE PD WITH RDGG OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY UPDATE... MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
KELM...WHERE VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...COULD BRING IFR
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

ANY LIGHT SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL BE WIDELY
SEPARATED IN NATURE...AND UNLIKELY TO BRING ANY SUSTAINED
RESTRICTIONS.

SURFACE WINDS 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL AVERAGE 5-8 KT
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 060603
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
203 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE DRY AND QUIET OVERNIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
HAD TO EDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR A FEW SPOTS WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST THAN EXPECTED...INCLUDING
ITHACA...AND VALLEYS OF THE UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN
CATSKILLS AREAS. OTHER THAN THAT...FORECAST IN FINE SHAPE.

730 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH QUIET NIGHT IN STORE ALONG WITH DEEP RED
SUNSET AND COPPERY MOON DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE TRANSLATING ALL THE
WAY OVER FROM NORTHERN AND WESTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY IN MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY...CONTINUES TO APPROACH. IT
APPEARS THAT THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE ENOUGH GAPS TO
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS PATCHY FOG IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE TWIN TIERS...HAVE ADDED ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MIXTURE OF FAIR WX CU...HI CLDS...AND LGT SMOKE OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTN. STILL...MSTLY SUNNY CONDS PREVAIL AND WILL CONT TO DO
SO INTO THE EVE. NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPR LOW DRFTG NWRD WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS INTO WRN PA. ALL MODELS SEEMS TO AGREE THAT THE
FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHEAR IN THE DVLPG SW FLOW OVER THE ERN
US. QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA AS THE UPR FRCG WEAKENS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMT
AND TIMING OF THE APRCHG PCPN SHIELD. WILL INCRS THE CLDS OVRNGT
BUT KEEP ONLY SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE OVER THE XTRM SWRN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD IN ACCORDANCE TO LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINS OF THE UPR LOW CONTS TO DRFT NWRD IN THE SHRT TERM. SLGTLY
LWRD HGTS AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCRSG LL MOISTURE
AND TEMPS DEFINITELY CALL FOR CHANCE POPS THRU THE PD. PEAK HTG
WILL ALIGN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WV BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONV TUE AFTN OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND AGAIN ON WED AS THE COLD
FNT APRCHS. MUCH OF THE PD SHD BE DRY HWVR...AND WRM AS HGTS FNLY
RCH NEAR SEASONAL LVLS.

ABV MENTIONED COLD FNT IS APRCHG THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PD
AND LIKELY TRIGGER TRWS WED AFTN.

TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR AFTN HI/S THRU THE PD WITH RDGG OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY UPDATE... MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
KELM...WHERE VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...COULD BRING IFR
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

ANY LIGHT SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL BE WIDELY
SEPARATED IN NATURE...AND UNLIKELY TO BRING ANY SUSTAINED
RESTRICTIONS.

SURFACE WINDS 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL AVERAGE 5-8 KT
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 060603
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
203 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE DRY AND QUIET OVERNIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
HAD TO EDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR A FEW SPOTS WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST THAN EXPECTED...INCLUDING
ITHACA...AND VALLEYS OF THE UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN
CATSKILLS AREAS. OTHER THAN THAT...FORECAST IN FINE SHAPE.

730 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH QUIET NIGHT IN STORE ALONG WITH DEEP RED
SUNSET AND COPPERY MOON DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE TRANSLATING ALL THE
WAY OVER FROM NORTHERN AND WESTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY IN MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY...CONTINUES TO APPROACH. IT
APPEARS THAT THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE ENOUGH GAPS TO
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS PATCHY FOG IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE TWIN TIERS...HAVE ADDED ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MIXTURE OF FAIR WX CU...HI CLDS...AND LGT SMOKE OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTN. STILL...MSTLY SUNNY CONDS PREVAIL AND WILL CONT TO DO
SO INTO THE EVE. NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPR LOW DRFTG NWRD WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS INTO WRN PA. ALL MODELS SEEMS TO AGREE THAT THE
FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHEAR IN THE DVLPG SW FLOW OVER THE ERN
US. QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA AS THE UPR FRCG WEAKENS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMT
AND TIMING OF THE APRCHG PCPN SHIELD. WILL INCRS THE CLDS OVRNGT
BUT KEEP ONLY SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE OVER THE XTRM SWRN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD IN ACCORDANCE TO LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINS OF THE UPR LOW CONTS TO DRFT NWRD IN THE SHRT TERM. SLGTLY
LWRD HGTS AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCRSG LL MOISTURE
AND TEMPS DEFINITELY CALL FOR CHANCE POPS THRU THE PD. PEAK HTG
WILL ALIGN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WV BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONV TUE AFTN OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND AGAIN ON WED AS THE COLD
FNT APRCHS. MUCH OF THE PD SHD BE DRY HWVR...AND WRM AS HGTS FNLY
RCH NEAR SEASONAL LVLS.

ABV MENTIONED COLD FNT IS APRCHG THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PD
AND LIKELY TRIGGER TRWS WED AFTN.

TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR AFTN HI/S THRU THE PD WITH RDGG OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY UPDATE... MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
KELM...WHERE VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...COULD BRING IFR
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

ANY LIGHT SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL BE WIDELY
SEPARATED IN NATURE...AND UNLIKELY TO BRING ANY SUSTAINED
RESTRICTIONS.

SURFACE WINDS 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL AVERAGE 5-8 KT
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 060232
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1032 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE DRY AND QUIET OVERNIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
HAD TO EDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR A FEW SPOTS WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST THAN EXPECTED...INCLUDING
ITHACA...AND VALLEYS OF THE UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN
CATSKILLS AREAS. OTHER THAN THAT...FORECAST IN FINE SHAPE.

730 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH QUIET NIGHT IN STORE ALONG WITH DEEP RED
SUNSET AND COPPERY MOON DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE TRANSLATING ALL THE
WAY OVER FROM NORTHERN AND WESTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY IN MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY...CONTINUES TO APPROACH. IT
APPEARS THAT THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE ENOUGH GAPS TO
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS PATCHY FOG IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE TWIN TIERS...HAVE ADDED ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MIXTURE OF FAIR WX CU...HI CLDS...AND LGT SMOKE OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTN. STILL...MSTLY SUNNY CONDS PREVAIL AND WILL CONT TO DO
SO INTO THE EVE. NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPR LOW DRFTG NWRD WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS INTO WRN PA. ALL MODELS SEEMS TO AGREE THAT THE
FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHEAR IN THE DVLPG SW FLOW OVER THE ERN
US. QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA AS THE UPR FRCG WEAKENS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMT
AND TIMING OF THE APRCHG PCPN SHIELD. WILL INCRS THE CLDS OVRNGT
BUT KEEP ONLY SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE OVER THE XTRM SWRN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD IN ACCORDANCE TO LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINS OF THE UPR LOW CONTS TO DRFT NWRD IN THE SHRT TERM. SLGTLY
LWRD HGTS AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCRSG LL MOISTURE
AND TEMPS DEFINITELY CALL FOR CHANCE POPS THRU THE PD. PEAK HTG
WILL ALIGN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WV BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONV TUE AFTN OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND AGAIN ON WED AS THE COLD
FNT APRCHS. MUCH OF THE PD SHD BE DRY HWVR...AND WRM AS HGTS FNLY
RCH NEAR SEASONAL LVLS.

ABV MENTIONED COLD FNT IS APRCHG THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PD
AND LIKELY TRIGGER TRWS WED AFTN.

TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR AFTN HI/S THRU THE PD WITH RDGG OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT
WEAKENS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT EVEN WITH THIS THICKENING CI, INCLUDED
POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT KELM BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. MONDAY MORNING A DECK
AROUND 4K FT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN TERMINALS WITH A MID DECK
AT KSYR/KRME. AT KELM/KAVP, INCLUDED UNRESTRICTIVE SHOWERS AFTER
18Z.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
S/SE WINDS ON MONDAY 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 060232
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1032 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE DRY AND QUIET OVERNIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
HAD TO EDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR A FEW SPOTS WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST THAN EXPECTED...INCLUDING
ITHACA...AND VALLEYS OF THE UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN
CATSKILLS AREAS. OTHER THAN THAT...FORECAST IN FINE SHAPE.

730 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH QUIET NIGHT IN STORE ALONG WITH DEEP RED
SUNSET AND COPPERY MOON DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE TRANSLATING ALL THE
WAY OVER FROM NORTHERN AND WESTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY IN MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY...CONTINUES TO APPROACH. IT
APPEARS THAT THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE ENOUGH GAPS TO
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS PATCHY FOG IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE TWIN TIERS...HAVE ADDED ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MIXTURE OF FAIR WX CU...HI CLDS...AND LGT SMOKE OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTN. STILL...MSTLY SUNNY CONDS PREVAIL AND WILL CONT TO DO
SO INTO THE EVE. NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPR LOW DRFTG NWRD WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS INTO WRN PA. ALL MODELS SEEMS TO AGREE THAT THE
FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHEAR IN THE DVLPG SW FLOW OVER THE ERN
US. QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA AS THE UPR FRCG WEAKENS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMT
AND TIMING OF THE APRCHG PCPN SHIELD. WILL INCRS THE CLDS OVRNGT
BUT KEEP ONLY SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE OVER THE XTRM SWRN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD IN ACCORDANCE TO LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINS OF THE UPR LOW CONTS TO DRFT NWRD IN THE SHRT TERM. SLGTLY
LWRD HGTS AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCRSG LL MOISTURE
AND TEMPS DEFINITELY CALL FOR CHANCE POPS THRU THE PD. PEAK HTG
WILL ALIGN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WV BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONV TUE AFTN OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND AGAIN ON WED AS THE COLD
FNT APRCHS. MUCH OF THE PD SHD BE DRY HWVR...AND WRM AS HGTS FNLY
RCH NEAR SEASONAL LVLS.

ABV MENTIONED COLD FNT IS APRCHG THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PD
AND LIKELY TRIGGER TRWS WED AFTN.

TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR AFTN HI/S THRU THE PD WITH RDGG OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT
WEAKENS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT EVEN WITH THIS THICKENING CI, INCLUDED
POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT KELM BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. MONDAY MORNING A DECK
AROUND 4K FT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN TERMINALS WITH A MID DECK
AT KSYR/KRME. AT KELM/KAVP, INCLUDED UNRESTRICTIVE SHOWERS AFTER
18Z.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
S/SE WINDS ON MONDAY 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 060232
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1032 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE DRY AND QUIET OVERNIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
HAD TO EDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR A FEW SPOTS WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST THAN EXPECTED...INCLUDING
ITHACA...AND VALLEYS OF THE UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN
CATSKILLS AREAS. OTHER THAN THAT...FORECAST IN FINE SHAPE.

730 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH QUIET NIGHT IN STORE ALONG WITH DEEP RED
SUNSET AND COPPERY MOON DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE TRANSLATING ALL THE
WAY OVER FROM NORTHERN AND WESTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY IN MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY...CONTINUES TO APPROACH. IT
APPEARS THAT THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE ENOUGH GAPS TO
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS PATCHY FOG IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE TWIN TIERS...HAVE ADDED ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MIXTURE OF FAIR WX CU...HI CLDS...AND LGT SMOKE OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTN. STILL...MSTLY SUNNY CONDS PREVAIL AND WILL CONT TO DO
SO INTO THE EVE. NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPR LOW DRFTG NWRD WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS INTO WRN PA. ALL MODELS SEEMS TO AGREE THAT THE
FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHEAR IN THE DVLPG SW FLOW OVER THE ERN
US. QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA AS THE UPR FRCG WEAKENS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMT
AND TIMING OF THE APRCHG PCPN SHIELD. WILL INCRS THE CLDS OVRNGT
BUT KEEP ONLY SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE OVER THE XTRM SWRN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD IN ACCORDANCE TO LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINS OF THE UPR LOW CONTS TO DRFT NWRD IN THE SHRT TERM. SLGTLY
LWRD HGTS AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCRSG LL MOISTURE
AND TEMPS DEFINITELY CALL FOR CHANCE POPS THRU THE PD. PEAK HTG
WILL ALIGN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WV BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONV TUE AFTN OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND AGAIN ON WED AS THE COLD
FNT APRCHS. MUCH OF THE PD SHD BE DRY HWVR...AND WRM AS HGTS FNLY
RCH NEAR SEASONAL LVLS.

ABV MENTIONED COLD FNT IS APRCHG THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PD
AND LIKELY TRIGGER TRWS WED AFTN.

TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR AFTN HI/S THRU THE PD WITH RDGG OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT
WEAKENS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT EVEN WITH THIS THICKENING CI, INCLUDED
POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT KELM BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. MONDAY MORNING A DECK
AROUND 4K FT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN TERMINALS WITH A MID DECK
AT KSYR/KRME. AT KELM/KAVP, INCLUDED UNRESTRICTIVE SHOWERS AFTER
18Z.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
S/SE WINDS ON MONDAY 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 052336
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
736 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE DRY AND QUIET OVERNIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH QUIET NIGHT IN STORE ALONG WITH DEEP RED
SUNSET AND COPPERY MOON DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE TRANSLATING ALL THE
WAY OVER FROM NORTHERN AND WESTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY IN MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY...CONTINUES TO APPROACH. IT
APPEARS THAT THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE ENOUGH GAPS TO
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS PATCHY FOG IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE TWIN TIERS...HAVE ADDED ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MIXTURE OF FAIR WX CU...HI CLDS...AND LGT SMOKE OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTN. STILL...MSTLY SUNNY CONDS PREVAIL AND WILL CONT TO DO
SO INTO THE EVE. NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPR LOW DRFTG NWRD WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS INTO WRN PA. ALL MODELS SEEMS TO AGREE THAT THE
FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHEAR IN THE DVLPG SW FLOW OVER THE ERN
US. QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA AS THE UPR FRCG WEAKENS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMT
AND TIMING OF THE APRCHG PCPN SHIELD. WILL INCRS THE CLDS OVRNGT
BUT KEEP ONLY SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE OVER THE XTRM SWRN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD IN ACCORDANCE TO LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINS OF THE UPR LOW CONTS TO DRFT NWRD IN THE SHRT TERM. SLGTLY
LWRD HGTS AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCRSG LL MOISTURE
AND TEMPS DEFINITELY CALL FOR CHANCE POPS THRU THE PD. PEAK HTG
WILL ALIGN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WV BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONV TUE AFTN OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND AGAIN ON WED AS THE COLD
FNT APRCHS. MUCH OF THE PD SHD BE DRY HWVR...AND WRM AS HGTS FNLY
RCH NEAR SEASONAL LVLS.

ABV MENTIONED COLD FNT IS APRCHG THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PD
AND LIKELY TRIGGER TRWS WED AFTN.

TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR AFTN HI/S THRU THE PD WITH RDGG OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT
WEAKENS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT EVEN WITH THIS THICKENING CI, INCLUDED
POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT KELM BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. MONDAY MORNING A DECK
AROUND 4K FT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN TERMINALS WITH A MID DECK
AT KSYR/KRME. AT KELM/KAVP, INCLUDED UNRESTRICTIVE SHOWERS AFTER
18Z.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
S/SE WINDS ON MONDAY 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 052336
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
736 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE DRY AND QUIET OVERNIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH QUIET NIGHT IN STORE ALONG WITH DEEP RED
SUNSET AND COPPERY MOON DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE TRANSLATING ALL THE
WAY OVER FROM NORTHERN AND WESTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY IN MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY...CONTINUES TO APPROACH. IT
APPEARS THAT THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE ENOUGH GAPS TO
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS PATCHY FOG IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE TWIN TIERS...HAVE ADDED ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MIXTURE OF FAIR WX CU...HI CLDS...AND LGT SMOKE OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTN. STILL...MSTLY SUNNY CONDS PREVAIL AND WILL CONT TO DO
SO INTO THE EVE. NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPR LOW DRFTG NWRD WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS INTO WRN PA. ALL MODELS SEEMS TO AGREE THAT THE
FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHEAR IN THE DVLPG SW FLOW OVER THE ERN
US. QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA AS THE UPR FRCG WEAKENS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMT
AND TIMING OF THE APRCHG PCPN SHIELD. WILL INCRS THE CLDS OVRNGT
BUT KEEP ONLY SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE OVER THE XTRM SWRN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD IN ACCORDANCE TO LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINS OF THE UPR LOW CONTS TO DRFT NWRD IN THE SHRT TERM. SLGTLY
LWRD HGTS AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCRSG LL MOISTURE
AND TEMPS DEFINITELY CALL FOR CHANCE POPS THRU THE PD. PEAK HTG
WILL ALIGN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WV BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONV TUE AFTN OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND AGAIN ON WED AS THE COLD
FNT APRCHS. MUCH OF THE PD SHD BE DRY HWVR...AND WRM AS HGTS FNLY
RCH NEAR SEASONAL LVLS.

ABV MENTIONED COLD FNT IS APRCHG THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PD
AND LIKELY TRIGGER TRWS WED AFTN.

TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR AFTN HI/S THRU THE PD WITH RDGG OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT
WEAKENS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT EVEN WITH THIS THICKENING CI, INCLUDED
POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT KELM BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. MONDAY MORNING A DECK
AROUND 4K FT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN TERMINALS WITH A MID DECK
AT KSYR/KRME. AT KELM/KAVP, INCLUDED UNRESTRICTIVE SHOWERS AFTER
18Z.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
S/SE WINDS ON MONDAY 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 052336
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
736 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE DRY AND QUIET OVERNIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH QUIET NIGHT IN STORE ALONG WITH DEEP RED
SUNSET AND COPPERY MOON DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE TRANSLATING ALL THE
WAY OVER FROM NORTHERN AND WESTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY IN MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY...CONTINUES TO APPROACH. IT
APPEARS THAT THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE ENOUGH GAPS TO
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS PATCHY FOG IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE TWIN TIERS...HAVE ADDED ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MIXTURE OF FAIR WX CU...HI CLDS...AND LGT SMOKE OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTN. STILL...MSTLY SUNNY CONDS PREVAIL AND WILL CONT TO DO
SO INTO THE EVE. NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPR LOW DRFTG NWRD WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS INTO WRN PA. ALL MODELS SEEMS TO AGREE THAT THE
FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHEAR IN THE DVLPG SW FLOW OVER THE ERN
US. QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA AS THE UPR FRCG WEAKENS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMT
AND TIMING OF THE APRCHG PCPN SHIELD. WILL INCRS THE CLDS OVRNGT
BUT KEEP ONLY SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE OVER THE XTRM SWRN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD IN ACCORDANCE TO LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINS OF THE UPR LOW CONTS TO DRFT NWRD IN THE SHRT TERM. SLGTLY
LWRD HGTS AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCRSG LL MOISTURE
AND TEMPS DEFINITELY CALL FOR CHANCE POPS THRU THE PD. PEAK HTG
WILL ALIGN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WV BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONV TUE AFTN OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND AGAIN ON WED AS THE COLD
FNT APRCHS. MUCH OF THE PD SHD BE DRY HWVR...AND WRM AS HGTS FNLY
RCH NEAR SEASONAL LVLS.

ABV MENTIONED COLD FNT IS APRCHG THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PD
AND LIKELY TRIGGER TRWS WED AFTN.

TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR AFTN HI/S THRU THE PD WITH RDGG OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT
WEAKENS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT EVEN WITH THIS THICKENING CI, INCLUDED
POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT KELM BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. MONDAY MORNING A DECK
AROUND 4K FT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN TERMINALS WITH A MID DECK
AT KSYR/KRME. AT KELM/KAVP, INCLUDED UNRESTRICTIVE SHOWERS AFTER
18Z.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
S/SE WINDS ON MONDAY 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 052249
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
649 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WHILE
MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MIXTURE OF FAIR WX CU...HI CLDS...AND LGT SMOKE OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTN. STILL...MSTLY SUNNY CONDS PREVAIL AND WILL CONT TO DO
SO INTO THE EVE. NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPR LOW DRFTG NWRD WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS INTO WRN PA. ALL MODELS SEEMS TO AGREE THAT THE
FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHEAR IN THE DVLPG SW FLOW OVER THE ERN
US. QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA AS THE UPR FRCG WEAKENS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMT
AND TIMING OF THE APRCHG PCPN SHIELD. WILL INCRS THE CLDS OVRNGT
BUT KEEP ONLY SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE OVER THE XTRM SWRN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD IN ACCORDANCE TO LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINS OF THE UPR LOW CONTS TO DRFT NWRD IN THE SHRT TERM. SLGTLY
LWRD HGTS AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCRSG LL MOISTURE
AND TEMPS DEFINITELY CALL FOR CHANCE POPS THRU THE PD. PEAK HTG
WILL ALIGN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WV BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONV TUE AFTN OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND AGAIN ON WED AS THE COLD
FNT APRCHS. MUCH OF THE PD SHD BE DRY HWVR...AND WRM AS HGTS FNLY
RCH NEAR SEASONAL LVLS.

ABV MENTIONED COLD FNT IS APRCHG THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PD
AND LIKELY TRIGGER TRWS WED AFTN.

TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR AFTN HI/S THRU THE PD WITH RDGG OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT
WEAKENS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT EVEN WITH THIS THICKENING CI, INCLUDED
POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT KELM BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. MONDAY MORNING A DECK
AROUND 4K FT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN TERMINALS WITH A MID DECK
AT KSYR/KRME. AT KELM/KAVP, INCLUDED UNRESTRICTIVE SHOWERS AFTER
18Z.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
S/SE WINDS ON MONDAY 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 052249
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
649 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WHILE
MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MIXTURE OF FAIR WX CU...HI CLDS...AND LGT SMOKE OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTN. STILL...MSTLY SUNNY CONDS PREVAIL AND WILL CONT TO DO
SO INTO THE EVE. NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPR LOW DRFTG NWRD WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS INTO WRN PA. ALL MODELS SEEMS TO AGREE THAT THE
FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHEAR IN THE DVLPG SW FLOW OVER THE ERN
US. QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA AS THE UPR FRCG WEAKENS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMT
AND TIMING OF THE APRCHG PCPN SHIELD. WILL INCRS THE CLDS OVRNGT
BUT KEEP ONLY SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE OVER THE XTRM SWRN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD IN ACCORDANCE TO LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINS OF THE UPR LOW CONTS TO DRFT NWRD IN THE SHRT TERM. SLGTLY
LWRD HGTS AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCRSG LL MOISTURE
AND TEMPS DEFINITELY CALL FOR CHANCE POPS THRU THE PD. PEAK HTG
WILL ALIGN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WV BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONV TUE AFTN OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND AGAIN ON WED AS THE COLD
FNT APRCHS. MUCH OF THE PD SHD BE DRY HWVR...AND WRM AS HGTS FNLY
RCH NEAR SEASONAL LVLS.

ABV MENTIONED COLD FNT IS APRCHG THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PD
AND LIKELY TRIGGER TRWS WED AFTN.

TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR AFTN HI/S THRU THE PD WITH RDGG OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT
WEAKENS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT EVEN WITH THIS THICKENING CI, INCLUDED
POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT KELM BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. MONDAY MORNING A DECK
AROUND 4K FT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN TERMINALS WITH A MID DECK
AT KSYR/KRME. AT KELM/KAVP, INCLUDED UNRESTRICTIVE SHOWERS AFTER
18Z.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
S/SE WINDS ON MONDAY 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 052249
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
649 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WHILE
MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MIXTURE OF FAIR WX CU...HI CLDS...AND LGT SMOKE OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTN. STILL...MSTLY SUNNY CONDS PREVAIL AND WILL CONT TO DO
SO INTO THE EVE. NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPR LOW DRFTG NWRD WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS INTO WRN PA. ALL MODELS SEEMS TO AGREE THAT THE
FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHEAR IN THE DVLPG SW FLOW OVER THE ERN
US. QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA AS THE UPR FRCG WEAKENS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMT
AND TIMING OF THE APRCHG PCPN SHIELD. WILL INCRS THE CLDS OVRNGT
BUT KEEP ONLY SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE OVER THE XTRM SWRN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD IN ACCORDANCE TO LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINS OF THE UPR LOW CONTS TO DRFT NWRD IN THE SHRT TERM. SLGTLY
LWRD HGTS AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCRSG LL MOISTURE
AND TEMPS DEFINITELY CALL FOR CHANCE POPS THRU THE PD. PEAK HTG
WILL ALIGN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WV BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONV TUE AFTN OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND AGAIN ON WED AS THE COLD
FNT APRCHS. MUCH OF THE PD SHD BE DRY HWVR...AND WRM AS HGTS FNLY
RCH NEAR SEASONAL LVLS.

ABV MENTIONED COLD FNT IS APRCHG THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PD
AND LIKELY TRIGGER TRWS WED AFTN.

TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR AFTN HI/S THRU THE PD WITH RDGG OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT
WEAKENS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT EVEN WITH THIS THICKENING CI, INCLUDED
POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT KELM BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. MONDAY MORNING A DECK
AROUND 4K FT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN TERMINALS WITH A MID DECK
AT KSYR/KRME. AT KELM/KAVP, INCLUDED UNRESTRICTIVE SHOWERS AFTER
18Z.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
S/SE WINDS ON MONDAY 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 052249
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
649 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WHILE
MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MIXTURE OF FAIR WX CU...HI CLDS...AND LGT SMOKE OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTN. STILL...MSTLY SUNNY CONDS PREVAIL AND WILL CONT TO DO
SO INTO THE EVE. NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPR LOW DRFTG NWRD WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS INTO WRN PA. ALL MODELS SEEMS TO AGREE THAT THE
FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHEAR IN THE DVLPG SW FLOW OVER THE ERN
US. QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA AS THE UPR FRCG WEAKENS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMT
AND TIMING OF THE APRCHG PCPN SHIELD. WILL INCRS THE CLDS OVRNGT
BUT KEEP ONLY SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE OVER THE XTRM SWRN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD IN ACCORDANCE TO LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINS OF THE UPR LOW CONTS TO DRFT NWRD IN THE SHRT TERM. SLGTLY
LWRD HGTS AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCRSG LL MOISTURE
AND TEMPS DEFINITELY CALL FOR CHANCE POPS THRU THE PD. PEAK HTG
WILL ALIGN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WV BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONV TUE AFTN OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND AGAIN ON WED AS THE COLD
FNT APRCHS. MUCH OF THE PD SHD BE DRY HWVR...AND WRM AS HGTS FNLY
RCH NEAR SEASONAL LVLS.

ABV MENTIONED COLD FNT IS APRCHG THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PD
AND LIKELY TRIGGER TRWS WED AFTN.

TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR AFTN HI/S THRU THE PD WITH RDGG OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT
WEAKENS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT EVEN WITH THIS THICKENING CI, INCLUDED
POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT KELM BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. MONDAY MORNING A DECK
AROUND 4K FT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN TERMINALS WITH A MID DECK
AT KSYR/KRME. AT KELM/KAVP, INCLUDED UNRESTRICTIVE SHOWERS AFTER
18Z.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
S/SE WINDS ON MONDAY 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 051931
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
331 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WHILE
MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MIXTURE OF FAIR WX CU...HI CLDS...AND LGT SMOKE OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTN. STILL...MSTLY SUNNY CONDS PREVAIL AND WILL CONT TO DO
SO INTO THE EVE. NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPR LOW DRFTG NWRD WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS INTO WRN PA. ALL MODELS SEEMS TO AGREE THAT THE
FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHEAR IN THE DVLPG SW FLOW OVER THE ERN
US. QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA AS THE UPR FRCG WEAKENS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMT
AND TIMING OF THE APRCHG PCPN SHIELD. WILL INCRS THE CLDS OVRNGT
BUT KEEP ONLY SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE OVER THE XTRM SWRN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD IN ACCORDANCE TO LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINS OF THE UPR LOW CONTS TO DRFT NWRD IN THE SHRT TERM. SLGTLY
LWRD HGTS AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCRSG LL MOISTURE
AND TEMPS DEFINITELY CALL FOR CHANCE POPS THRU THE PD. PEAK HTG
WILL ALIGN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WV BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONV TUE AFTN OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND AGAIN ON WED AS THE COLD
FNT APRCHS. MUCH OF THE PD SHD BE DRY HWVR...AND WRM AS HGTS FNLY
RCH NEAR SEASONAL LVLS.

ABV MENTIONED COLD FNT IS APRCHG THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PD
AND LIKELY TRIGGER TRWS WED AFTN.

TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR AFTN HI/S THRU THE PD WITH RDGG OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER SCT/BKN CU AROUND 4K FT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KENTUCKY
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING. VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT EVEN WITH
THIS THICKENING CI, INCLUDED POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT KELM BETWEEN
08Z-12Z.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
S/SE WINDS ON MONDAY 5-8 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 051931
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
331 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WHILE
MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MIXTURE OF FAIR WX CU...HI CLDS...AND LGT SMOKE OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTN. STILL...MSTLY SUNNY CONDS PREVAIL AND WILL CONT TO DO
SO INTO THE EVE. NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPR LOW DRFTG NWRD WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS INTO WRN PA. ALL MODELS SEEMS TO AGREE THAT THE
FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHEAR IN THE DVLPG SW FLOW OVER THE ERN
US. QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA AS THE UPR FRCG WEAKENS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMT
AND TIMING OF THE APRCHG PCPN SHIELD. WILL INCRS THE CLDS OVRNGT
BUT KEEP ONLY SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE OVER THE XTRM SWRN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD IN ACCORDANCE TO LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINS OF THE UPR LOW CONTS TO DRFT NWRD IN THE SHRT TERM. SLGTLY
LWRD HGTS AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCRSG LL MOISTURE
AND TEMPS DEFINITELY CALL FOR CHANCE POPS THRU THE PD. PEAK HTG
WILL ALIGN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WV BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONV TUE AFTN OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND AGAIN ON WED AS THE COLD
FNT APRCHS. MUCH OF THE PD SHD BE DRY HWVR...AND WRM AS HGTS FNLY
RCH NEAR SEASONAL LVLS.

ABV MENTIONED COLD FNT IS APRCHG THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PD
AND LIKELY TRIGGER TRWS WED AFTN.

TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR AFTN HI/S THRU THE PD WITH RDGG OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH DAY. SFC COLD FRONT THAT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MASON/DIXON LINE. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST MOVING
IMPULSES WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE SRN FA, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER SCT/BKN CU AROUND 4K FT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KENTUCKY
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING. VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT EVEN WITH
THIS THICKENING CI, INCLUDED POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT KELM BETWEEN
08Z-12Z.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
S/SE WINDS ON MONDAY 5-8 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 051809
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
209 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WHILE
MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

MIXTURE OF FAIR WX CU...HI CLDS...AND LGT SMOKE OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTN. STILL...MSTLY SUNNY CONDS PREVAIL AND WILL CONT TO DO
SO INTO THE EVE. NEXT WX MAKER IS AN UPR LOW DRFTG NWRD WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS INTO WRN PA. ALL MODELS SEEMS TO AGREE THAT THE
FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHEAR IN THE DVLPG SW FLOW OVER THE ERN
US. QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA AS THE UPR FRCG WEAKENS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMT
AND TIMING OF THE APRCHG PCPN SHIELD. WILL INCRS THE CLDS OVRNGT
BUT KEEP ONLY SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE OVER THE XTRM SWRN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD IN ACCORDANCE TO LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

REMAINS OF THE UPR LOW CONTS TO DRFT NWRD IN THE SHRT TERM. SLGTLY
LWRD HGTS AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCRSG LL MOISTURE
AND TEMPS DEFINITELY CALL FOR CHANCE POPS THRU THE PD. PEAK HTG
WILL ALIGN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WV BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONV TUE AFTN OVER THE WRN ZONES...AND AGAIN ON WED AS THE COLD
FNT APRCHS. MUCH OF THE PD SHD BE DRY HWVR...AND WRM AS HGTS FNLY
RCH NEAR SEASONAL LVLS.

ABV MENTIONED COLD FNT IS APRCHG THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PD
AND LIKELY TRIGGER TRWS WED AFTN.

TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR AFTN HI/S THRU THE PD WITH RDGG OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH LATEST 00Z MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT GRIDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

415 PM SATURDAY UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER SCT/BKN CU AROUND 4K FT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KENTUCKY
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING. VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT EVEN WITH
THIS THICKENING CI, INCLUDED POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT KELM BETWEEN
08Z-12Z.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
S/SE WINDS ON MONDAY 5-8 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 051742
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SUMMER AIR. A
DRY START TO THE NEW WEEK WILL FADE BEHIND CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...LAST VESTIGES OF FOG BURNING OFF OVER NE PA LVG
MAINLY CLR SKIES. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY CVR THIS
UPDATE...NO OTR CHGS. PRVS DISC BLO.

4 AM UPDATE...
AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS...AND CONSULTATION WITH WFO STATE
COLLEGE...WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND ALSO INCLUDED SULLIVAN CO. NEW YORK. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...THIS AREA SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST AFFECTED BY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE. DENSE FOG CONDITIONS HAVE ALLEVIATED SOMEWHAT ACROSS
CNTRL NY WHERE EARLIER FOG HAD MORPHED INTO MORE OF A LOW STRATUS
ENVIRONMENT. WE SUSPECT THAT WE HAVE MORE OF A MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
GOING ON AT THIS TIME...AND THIS CAN PROVIDE SOME OF THE WORST FOG
CONDITIONS FOR THE SPIDER WEB OF ELEVATED INTERSTATES THAT CROSS
THROUGH THE POCONOS. ELSEWHERE...HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS TO PROVIDE SOME HIGHLIGHT TO AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
STILL BE OUT THERE BETWEEN OBSERVATION POINTS ACROSS CNY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND WET GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL ALL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
THE BALANCE OF TODAY FORECAST TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM.

925 MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 20C...AND GOOD MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST A MAINLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...NOW PARKED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA FROM SW-NE BY MONDAY MORNING...CONTINUING TO ADD LAYERS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS MAY TEMPER THE FOG SITUATION A BIT...BUT
WILL STILL MENTION PATCHY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN OUR DIRECTION...
BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO TEAM UP WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER...ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NEPA ZONES BY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLY WORKING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THESE
REASONS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
POINTS EAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR CUT ON TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LOW DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT SOME
POINT IN THAT 24 HOURS...WE COULD HAVE A SQUEEZE PLAY GOING ON
WHERE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA HAS VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF PRECIP...WHILE CHANCES LINGER IN THE EAST...AND DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THAT`S
HARD TO CONVEY IN OUR FORECAST METHODOLOGY WITH ANY CLARITY...BUT
HAVE TRIED TO MAKE IT SO IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NOTED
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH LATEST 00Z MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT GRIDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

415 PM SATURDAY UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER SCT/BKN CU AROUND 4K FT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KENTUCKY
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING. VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT EVEN WITH
THIS THICKENING CI, INCLUDED POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT KELM BETWEEN
08Z-12Z.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
S/SE WINDS ON MONDAY 5-8 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/JAB
NEAR TERM...DGM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 051742
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SUMMER AIR. A
DRY START TO THE NEW WEEK WILL FADE BEHIND CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...LAST VESTIGES OF FOG BURNING OFF OVER NE PA LVG
MAINLY CLR SKIES. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY CVR THIS
UPDATE...NO OTR CHGS. PRVS DISC BLO.

4 AM UPDATE...
AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS...AND CONSULTATION WITH WFO STATE
COLLEGE...WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND ALSO INCLUDED SULLIVAN CO. NEW YORK. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...THIS AREA SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST AFFECTED BY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE. DENSE FOG CONDITIONS HAVE ALLEVIATED SOMEWHAT ACROSS
CNTRL NY WHERE EARLIER FOG HAD MORPHED INTO MORE OF A LOW STRATUS
ENVIRONMENT. WE SUSPECT THAT WE HAVE MORE OF A MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
GOING ON AT THIS TIME...AND THIS CAN PROVIDE SOME OF THE WORST FOG
CONDITIONS FOR THE SPIDER WEB OF ELEVATED INTERSTATES THAT CROSS
THROUGH THE POCONOS. ELSEWHERE...HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS TO PROVIDE SOME HIGHLIGHT TO AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
STILL BE OUT THERE BETWEEN OBSERVATION POINTS ACROSS CNY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND WET GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL ALL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
THE BALANCE OF TODAY FORECAST TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM.

925 MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 20C...AND GOOD MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST A MAINLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...NOW PARKED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA FROM SW-NE BY MONDAY MORNING...CONTINUING TO ADD LAYERS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS MAY TEMPER THE FOG SITUATION A BIT...BUT
WILL STILL MENTION PATCHY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN OUR DIRECTION...
BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO TEAM UP WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER...ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NEPA ZONES BY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLY WORKING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THESE
REASONS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
POINTS EAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR CUT ON TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LOW DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT SOME
POINT IN THAT 24 HOURS...WE COULD HAVE A SQUEEZE PLAY GOING ON
WHERE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA HAS VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF PRECIP...WHILE CHANCES LINGER IN THE EAST...AND DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THAT`S
HARD TO CONVEY IN OUR FORECAST METHODOLOGY WITH ANY CLARITY...BUT
HAVE TRIED TO MAKE IT SO IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NOTED
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH LATEST 00Z MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT GRIDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

415 PM SATURDAY UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER SCT/BKN CU AROUND 4K FT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KENTUCKY
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING. VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT EVEN WITH
THIS THICKENING CI, INCLUDED POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT KELM BETWEEN
08Z-12Z.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
S/SE WINDS ON MONDAY 5-8 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/JAB
NEAR TERM...DGM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 051440
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1040 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SUMMER AIR. A
DRY START TO THE NEW WEEK WILL FADE BEHIND CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...LAST VESTIGES OF FOG BURNING OFF OVER NE PA LVG
MAINLY CLR SKIES. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY CVR THIS
UPDATE...NO OTR CHGS. PRVS DISC BLO.

4 AM UPDATE...
AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS...AND CONSULTATION WITH WFO STATE
COLLEGE...WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND ALSO INCLUDED SULLIVAN CO. NEW YORK. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...THIS AREA SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST AFFECTED BY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE. DENSE FOG CONDITIONS HAVE ALLEVIATED SOMEWHAT ACROSS
CNTRL NY WHERE EARLIER FOG HAD MORPHED INTO MORE OF A LOW STRATUS
ENVIRONMENT. WE SUSPECT THAT WE HAVE MORE OF A MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
GOING ON AT THIS TIME...AND THIS CAN PROVIDE SOME OF THE WORST FOG
CONDITIONS FOR THE SPIDER WEB OF ELEVATED INTERSTATES THAT CROSS
THROUGH THE POCONOS. ELSEWHERE...HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS TO PROVIDE SOME HIGHLIGHT TO AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
STILL BE OUT THERE BETWEEN OBSERVATION POINTS ACROSS CNY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND WET GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL ALL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
THE BALANCE OF TODAY FORECAST TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM.

925 MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 20C...AND GOOD MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST A MAINLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...NOW PARKED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA FROM SW-NE BY MONDAY MORNING...CONTINUING TO ADD LAYERS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS MAY TEMPER THE FOG SITUATION A BIT...BUT
WILL STILL MENTION PATCHY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN OUR DIRECTION...
BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO TEAM UP WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER...ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NEPA ZONES BY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLY WORKING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THESE
REASONS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
POINTS EAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR CUT ON TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LOW DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT SOME
POINT IN THAT 24 HOURS...WE COULD HAVE A SQUEEZE PLAY GOING ON
WHERE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA HAS VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF PRECIP...WHILE CHANCES LINGER IN THE EAST...AND DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THAT`S
HARD TO CONVEY IN OUR FORECAST METHODOLOGY WITH ANY CLARITY...BUT
HAVE TRIED TO MAKE IT SO IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NOTED
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH LATEST 00Z MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT GRIDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

415 PM SATURDAY UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUN UPDATE... LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-15Z.

THEREAFTER...WE`RE LOOKING AT VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WHEN PATCHY VALLEY FOG COULD FORM. THUS...WE`VE
INDICATED A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AT KELM ONLY...AT THIS
EARLY JUNCTURE.

LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER 00Z MON.

.OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR EARLY TUESDAY...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/JAB
NEAR TERM...DGM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 051440
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1040 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SUMMER AIR. A
DRY START TO THE NEW WEEK WILL FADE BEHIND CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...LAST VESTIGES OF FOG BURNING OFF OVER NE PA LVG
MAINLY CLR SKIES. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY CVR THIS
UPDATE...NO OTR CHGS. PRVS DISC BLO.

4 AM UPDATE...
AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS...AND CONSULTATION WITH WFO STATE
COLLEGE...WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND ALSO INCLUDED SULLIVAN CO. NEW YORK. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...THIS AREA SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST AFFECTED BY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE. DENSE FOG CONDITIONS HAVE ALLEVIATED SOMEWHAT ACROSS
CNTRL NY WHERE EARLIER FOG HAD MORPHED INTO MORE OF A LOW STRATUS
ENVIRONMENT. WE SUSPECT THAT WE HAVE MORE OF A MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
GOING ON AT THIS TIME...AND THIS CAN PROVIDE SOME OF THE WORST FOG
CONDITIONS FOR THE SPIDER WEB OF ELEVATED INTERSTATES THAT CROSS
THROUGH THE POCONOS. ELSEWHERE...HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS TO PROVIDE SOME HIGHLIGHT TO AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
STILL BE OUT THERE BETWEEN OBSERVATION POINTS ACROSS CNY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND WET GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL ALL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
THE BALANCE OF TODAY FORECAST TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM.

925 MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 20C...AND GOOD MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST A MAINLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...NOW PARKED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA FROM SW-NE BY MONDAY MORNING...CONTINUING TO ADD LAYERS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS MAY TEMPER THE FOG SITUATION A BIT...BUT
WILL STILL MENTION PATCHY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN OUR DIRECTION...
BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO TEAM UP WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER...ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NEPA ZONES BY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLY WORKING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THESE
REASONS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
POINTS EAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR CUT ON TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LOW DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT SOME
POINT IN THAT 24 HOURS...WE COULD HAVE A SQUEEZE PLAY GOING ON
WHERE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA HAS VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF PRECIP...WHILE CHANCES LINGER IN THE EAST...AND DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THAT`S
HARD TO CONVEY IN OUR FORECAST METHODOLOGY WITH ANY CLARITY...BUT
HAVE TRIED TO MAKE IT SO IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NOTED
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH LATEST 00Z MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT GRIDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

415 PM SATURDAY UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUN UPDATE... LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-15Z.

THEREAFTER...WE`RE LOOKING AT VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WHEN PATCHY VALLEY FOG COULD FORM. THUS...WE`VE
INDICATED A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AT KELM ONLY...AT THIS
EARLY JUNCTURE.

LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER 00Z MON.

.OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR EARLY TUESDAY...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/JAB
NEAR TERM...DGM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 051440
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1040 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SUMMER AIR. A
DRY START TO THE NEW WEEK WILL FADE BEHIND CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...LAST VESTIGES OF FOG BURNING OFF OVER NE PA LVG
MAINLY CLR SKIES. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY CVR THIS
UPDATE...NO OTR CHGS. PRVS DISC BLO.

4 AM UPDATE...
AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS...AND CONSULTATION WITH WFO STATE
COLLEGE...WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND ALSO INCLUDED SULLIVAN CO. NEW YORK. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...THIS AREA SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST AFFECTED BY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE. DENSE FOG CONDITIONS HAVE ALLEVIATED SOMEWHAT ACROSS
CNTRL NY WHERE EARLIER FOG HAD MORPHED INTO MORE OF A LOW STRATUS
ENVIRONMENT. WE SUSPECT THAT WE HAVE MORE OF A MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
GOING ON AT THIS TIME...AND THIS CAN PROVIDE SOME OF THE WORST FOG
CONDITIONS FOR THE SPIDER WEB OF ELEVATED INTERSTATES THAT CROSS
THROUGH THE POCONOS. ELSEWHERE...HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS TO PROVIDE SOME HIGHLIGHT TO AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
STILL BE OUT THERE BETWEEN OBSERVATION POINTS ACROSS CNY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND WET GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL ALL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
THE BALANCE OF TODAY FORECAST TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM.

925 MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 20C...AND GOOD MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST A MAINLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...NOW PARKED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA FROM SW-NE BY MONDAY MORNING...CONTINUING TO ADD LAYERS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS MAY TEMPER THE FOG SITUATION A BIT...BUT
WILL STILL MENTION PATCHY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN OUR DIRECTION...
BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO TEAM UP WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER...ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NEPA ZONES BY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLY WORKING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THESE
REASONS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
POINTS EAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR CUT ON TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LOW DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT SOME
POINT IN THAT 24 HOURS...WE COULD HAVE A SQUEEZE PLAY GOING ON
WHERE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA HAS VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF PRECIP...WHILE CHANCES LINGER IN THE EAST...AND DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THAT`S
HARD TO CONVEY IN OUR FORECAST METHODOLOGY WITH ANY CLARITY...BUT
HAVE TRIED TO MAKE IT SO IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NOTED
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH LATEST 00Z MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT GRIDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

415 PM SATURDAY UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUN UPDATE... LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-15Z.

THEREAFTER...WE`RE LOOKING AT VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WHEN PATCHY VALLEY FOG COULD FORM. THUS...WE`VE
INDICATED A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AT KELM ONLY...AT THIS
EARLY JUNCTURE.

LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER 00Z MON.

.OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR EARLY TUESDAY...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/JAB
NEAR TERM...DGM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 051440
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1040 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SUMMER AIR. A
DRY START TO THE NEW WEEK WILL FADE BEHIND CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...LAST VESTIGES OF FOG BURNING OFF OVER NE PA LVG
MAINLY CLR SKIES. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY CVR THIS
UPDATE...NO OTR CHGS. PRVS DISC BLO.

4 AM UPDATE...
AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS...AND CONSULTATION WITH WFO STATE
COLLEGE...WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND ALSO INCLUDED SULLIVAN CO. NEW YORK. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...THIS AREA SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST AFFECTED BY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE. DENSE FOG CONDITIONS HAVE ALLEVIATED SOMEWHAT ACROSS
CNTRL NY WHERE EARLIER FOG HAD MORPHED INTO MORE OF A LOW STRATUS
ENVIRONMENT. WE SUSPECT THAT WE HAVE MORE OF A MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
GOING ON AT THIS TIME...AND THIS CAN PROVIDE SOME OF THE WORST FOG
CONDITIONS FOR THE SPIDER WEB OF ELEVATED INTERSTATES THAT CROSS
THROUGH THE POCONOS. ELSEWHERE...HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS TO PROVIDE SOME HIGHLIGHT TO AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
STILL BE OUT THERE BETWEEN OBSERVATION POINTS ACROSS CNY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND WET GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL ALL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
THE BALANCE OF TODAY FORECAST TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM.

925 MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 20C...AND GOOD MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST A MAINLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...NOW PARKED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA FROM SW-NE BY MONDAY MORNING...CONTINUING TO ADD LAYERS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS MAY TEMPER THE FOG SITUATION A BIT...BUT
WILL STILL MENTION PATCHY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN OUR DIRECTION...
BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO TEAM UP WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER...ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NEPA ZONES BY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLY WORKING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THESE
REASONS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
POINTS EAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR CUT ON TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LOW DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT SOME
POINT IN THAT 24 HOURS...WE COULD HAVE A SQUEEZE PLAY GOING ON
WHERE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA HAS VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF PRECIP...WHILE CHANCES LINGER IN THE EAST...AND DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THAT`S
HARD TO CONVEY IN OUR FORECAST METHODOLOGY WITH ANY CLARITY...BUT
HAVE TRIED TO MAKE IT SO IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NOTED
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH LATEST 00Z MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT GRIDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

415 PM SATURDAY UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUN UPDATE... LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-15Z.

THEREAFTER...WE`RE LOOKING AT VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WHEN PATCHY VALLEY FOG COULD FORM. THUS...WE`VE
INDICATED A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AT KELM ONLY...AT THIS
EARLY JUNCTURE.

LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER 00Z MON.

.OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR EARLY TUESDAY...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/JAB
NEAR TERM...DGM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 051439
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1039 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SUMMER AIR. A
DRY START TO THE NEW WEEK WILL FADE BEHIND CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...LAST VESTIGES OF FOG BRINGINGOFF OVER NE PA LVG
MAINLY CLR SKIES. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY CVR THIS
UPDATE...NO OTR CHGS. PRVS DISC BLO.

4 AM UPDATE...
AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS...AND CONSULTATION WITH WFO STATE
COLLEGE...WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND ALSO INCLUDED SULLIVAN CO. NEW YORK. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...THIS AREA SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST AFFECTED BY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE. DENSE FOG CONDITIONS HAVE ALLEVIATED SOMEWHAT ACROSS
CNTRL NY WHERE EARLIER FOG HAD MORPHED INTO MORE OF A LOW STRATUS
ENVIRONMENT. WE SUSPECT THAT WE HAVE MORE OF A MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
GOING ON AT THIS TIME...AND THIS CAN PROVIDE SOME OF THE WORST FOG
CONDITIONS FOR THE SPIDER WEB OF ELEVATED INTERSTATES THAT CROSS
THROUGH THE POCONOS. ELSEWHERE...HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS TO PROVIDE SOME HIGHLIGHT TO AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
STILL BE OUT THERE BETWEEN OBSERVATION POINTS ACROSS CNY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND WET GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL ALL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
THE BALANCE OF TODAY FORECAST TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM.

925 MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 20C...AND GOOD MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST A MAINLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...NOW PARKED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA FROM SW-NE BY MONDAY MORNING...CONTINUING TO ADD LAYERS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS MAY TEMPER THE FOG SITUATION A BIT...BUT
WILL STILL MENTION PATCHY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN OUR DIRECTION...
BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO TEAM UP WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER...ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NEPA ZONES BY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLY WORKING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THESE
REASONS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
POINTS EAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR CUT ON TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LOW DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT SOME
POINT IN THAT 24 HOURS...WE COULD HAVE A SQUEEZE PLAY GOING ON
WHERE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA HAS VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF PRECIP...WHILE CHANCES LINGER IN THE EAST...AND DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THAT`S
HARD TO CONVEY IN OUR FORECAST METHODOLOGY WITH ANY CLARITY...BUT
HAVE TRIED TO MAKE IT SO IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NOTED
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH LATEST 00Z MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT GRIDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

415 PM SATURDAY UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUN UPDATE... LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-15Z.

THEREAFTER...WE`RE LOOKING AT VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WHEN PATCHY VALLEY FOG COULD FORM. THUS...WE`VE
INDICATED A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AT KELM ONLY...AT THIS
EARLY JUNCTURE.

LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER 00Z MON.

.OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR EARLY TUESDAY...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/JAB
NEAR TERM...DGM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 051439
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1039 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SUMMER AIR. A
DRY START TO THE NEW WEEK WILL FADE BEHIND CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...LAST VESTIGES OF FOG BRINGINGOFF OVER NE PA LVG
MAINLY CLR SKIES. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY CVR THIS
UPDATE...NO OTR CHGS. PRVS DISC BLO.

4 AM UPDATE...
AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS...AND CONSULTATION WITH WFO STATE
COLLEGE...WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND ALSO INCLUDED SULLIVAN CO. NEW YORK. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...THIS AREA SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST AFFECTED BY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE. DENSE FOG CONDITIONS HAVE ALLEVIATED SOMEWHAT ACROSS
CNTRL NY WHERE EARLIER FOG HAD MORPHED INTO MORE OF A LOW STRATUS
ENVIRONMENT. WE SUSPECT THAT WE HAVE MORE OF A MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
GOING ON AT THIS TIME...AND THIS CAN PROVIDE SOME OF THE WORST FOG
CONDITIONS FOR THE SPIDER WEB OF ELEVATED INTERSTATES THAT CROSS
THROUGH THE POCONOS. ELSEWHERE...HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS TO PROVIDE SOME HIGHLIGHT TO AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
STILL BE OUT THERE BETWEEN OBSERVATION POINTS ACROSS CNY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND WET GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL ALL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
THE BALANCE OF TODAY FORECAST TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM.

925 MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 20C...AND GOOD MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST A MAINLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...NOW PARKED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA FROM SW-NE BY MONDAY MORNING...CONTINUING TO ADD LAYERS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS MAY TEMPER THE FOG SITUATION A BIT...BUT
WILL STILL MENTION PATCHY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN OUR DIRECTION...
BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO TEAM UP WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER...ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NEPA ZONES BY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLY WORKING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THESE
REASONS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
POINTS EAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR CUT ON TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LOW DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT SOME
POINT IN THAT 24 HOURS...WE COULD HAVE A SQUEEZE PLAY GOING ON
WHERE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA HAS VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF PRECIP...WHILE CHANCES LINGER IN THE EAST...AND DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THAT`S
HARD TO CONVEY IN OUR FORECAST METHODOLOGY WITH ANY CLARITY...BUT
HAVE TRIED TO MAKE IT SO IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NOTED
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH LATEST 00Z MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT GRIDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

415 PM SATURDAY UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUN UPDATE... LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-15Z.

THEREAFTER...WE`RE LOOKING AT VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WHEN PATCHY VALLEY FOG COULD FORM. THUS...WE`VE
INDICATED A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AT KELM ONLY...AT THIS
EARLY JUNCTURE.

LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER 00Z MON.

.OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR EARLY TUESDAY...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/JAB
NEAR TERM...DGM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 051439
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1039 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SUMMER AIR. A
DRY START TO THE NEW WEEK WILL FADE BEHIND CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...LAST VESTIGES OF FOG BRINGINGOFF OVER NE PA LVG
MAINLY CLR SKIES. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY CVR THIS
UPDATE...NO OTR CHGS. PRVS DISC BLO.

4 AM UPDATE...
AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS...AND CONSULTATION WITH WFO STATE
COLLEGE...WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND ALSO INCLUDED SULLIVAN CO. NEW YORK. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...THIS AREA SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST AFFECTED BY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE. DENSE FOG CONDITIONS HAVE ALLEVIATED SOMEWHAT ACROSS
CNTRL NY WHERE EARLIER FOG HAD MORPHED INTO MORE OF A LOW STRATUS
ENVIRONMENT. WE SUSPECT THAT WE HAVE MORE OF A MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
GOING ON AT THIS TIME...AND THIS CAN PROVIDE SOME OF THE WORST FOG
CONDITIONS FOR THE SPIDER WEB OF ELEVATED INTERSTATES THAT CROSS
THROUGH THE POCONOS. ELSEWHERE...HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS TO PROVIDE SOME HIGHLIGHT TO AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
STILL BE OUT THERE BETWEEN OBSERVATION POINTS ACROSS CNY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND WET GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL ALL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
THE BALANCE OF TODAY FORECAST TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM.

925 MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 20C...AND GOOD MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST A MAINLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...NOW PARKED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA FROM SW-NE BY MONDAY MORNING...CONTINUING TO ADD LAYERS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS MAY TEMPER THE FOG SITUATION A BIT...BUT
WILL STILL MENTION PATCHY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN OUR DIRECTION...
BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO TEAM UP WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER...ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NEPA ZONES BY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLY WORKING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THESE
REASONS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
POINTS EAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR CUT ON TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LOW DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT SOME
POINT IN THAT 24 HOURS...WE COULD HAVE A SQUEEZE PLAY GOING ON
WHERE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA HAS VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF PRECIP...WHILE CHANCES LINGER IN THE EAST...AND DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THAT`S
HARD TO CONVEY IN OUR FORECAST METHODOLOGY WITH ANY CLARITY...BUT
HAVE TRIED TO MAKE IT SO IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NOTED
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH LATEST 00Z MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT GRIDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

415 PM SATURDAY UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUN UPDATE... LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-15Z.

THEREAFTER...WE`RE LOOKING AT VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WHEN PATCHY VALLEY FOG COULD FORM. THUS...WE`VE
INDICATED A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AT KELM ONLY...AT THIS
EARLY JUNCTURE.

LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER 00Z MON.

.OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR EARLY TUESDAY...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/JAB
NEAR TERM...DGM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 051439
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1039 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SUMMER AIR. A
DRY START TO THE NEW WEEK WILL FADE BEHIND CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...LAST VESTIGES OF FOG BRINGINGOFF OVER NE PA LVG
MAINLY CLR SKIES. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY CVR THIS
UPDATE...NO OTR CHGS. PRVS DISC BLO.

4 AM UPDATE...
AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS...AND CONSULTATION WITH WFO STATE
COLLEGE...WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND ALSO INCLUDED SULLIVAN CO. NEW YORK. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...THIS AREA SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST AFFECTED BY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE. DENSE FOG CONDITIONS HAVE ALLEVIATED SOMEWHAT ACROSS
CNTRL NY WHERE EARLIER FOG HAD MORPHED INTO MORE OF A LOW STRATUS
ENVIRONMENT. WE SUSPECT THAT WE HAVE MORE OF A MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
GOING ON AT THIS TIME...AND THIS CAN PROVIDE SOME OF THE WORST FOG
CONDITIONS FOR THE SPIDER WEB OF ELEVATED INTERSTATES THAT CROSS
THROUGH THE POCONOS. ELSEWHERE...HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS TO PROVIDE SOME HIGHLIGHT TO AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
STILL BE OUT THERE BETWEEN OBSERVATION POINTS ACROSS CNY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND WET GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL ALL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
THE BALANCE OF TODAY FORECAST TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM.

925 MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 20C...AND GOOD MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST A MAINLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...NOW PARKED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA FROM SW-NE BY MONDAY MORNING...CONTINUING TO ADD LAYERS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS MAY TEMPER THE FOG SITUATION A BIT...BUT
WILL STILL MENTION PATCHY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN OUR DIRECTION...
BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO TEAM UP WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER...ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NEPA ZONES BY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLY WORKING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THESE
REASONS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
POINTS EAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR CUT ON TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LOW DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT SOME
POINT IN THAT 24 HOURS...WE COULD HAVE A SQUEEZE PLAY GOING ON
WHERE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA HAS VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF PRECIP...WHILE CHANCES LINGER IN THE EAST...AND DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THAT`S
HARD TO CONVEY IN OUR FORECAST METHODOLOGY WITH ANY CLARITY...BUT
HAVE TRIED TO MAKE IT SO IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NOTED
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH LATEST 00Z MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT GRIDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

415 PM SATURDAY UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUN UPDATE... LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-15Z.

THEREAFTER...WE`RE LOOKING AT VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WHEN PATCHY VALLEY FOG COULD FORM. THUS...WE`VE
INDICATED A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AT KELM ONLY...AT THIS
EARLY JUNCTURE.

LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER 00Z MON.

.OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR EARLY TUESDAY...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/JAB
NEAR TERM...DGM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 051046
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BURN OFF...LEAVING MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
A DRY START TO THE NEW WEEK WILL FADE BEHIND CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...
AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS...AND CONSULTATION WITH WFO STATE
COLLEGE...WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND ALSO INCLUDED SULLIVAN CO. NEW YORK. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...THIS AREA SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST AFFECTED BY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE. DENSE FOG CONDITIONS HAVE ALLEVIATED SOMEWHAT ACROSS
CNTRL NY WHERE EARLIER FOG HAD MORPHED INTO MORE OF A LOW STRATUS
ENVIRONMENT. WE SUSPECT THAT WE HAVE MORE OF A MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
GOING ON AT THIS TIME...AND THIS CAN PROVIDE SOME OF THE WORST FOG
CONDITIONS FOR THE SPIDER WEB OF ELEVATED INTERSTATES THAT CROSS
THROUGH THE POCONOS. ELSEWHERE...HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS TO PROVIDE SOME HIGHLIGHT TO AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
STILL BE OUT THERE BETWEEN OBSERVATION POINTS ACROSS CNY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND WET GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL ALL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
THE BALANCE OF TODAY FORECAST TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM.

925 MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 20C...AND GOOD MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST A MAINLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...NOW PARKED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA FROM SW-NE BY MONDAY MORNING...CONTINUING TO ADD LAYERS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS MAY TEMPER THE FOG SITUATION A BIT...BUT
WILL STILL MENTION PATCHY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN OUR DIRECTION...
BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO TEAM UP WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER...ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NEPA ZONES BY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLY WORKING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THESE
REASONS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
POINTS EAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR CUT ON TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LOW DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT SOME
POINT IN THAT 24 HOURS...WE COULD HAVE A SQUEEZE PLAY GOING ON
WHERE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA HAS VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF PRECIP...WHILE CHANCES LINGER IN THE EAST...AND DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THAT`S
HARD TO CONVEY IN OUR FORECAST METHODOLOGY WITH ANY CLARITY...BUT
HAVE TRIED TO MAKE IT SO IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NOTED
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH LATEST 00Z MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT GRIDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

415 PM SATURDAY UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUN UPDATE... LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-15Z.

THEREAFTER...WE`RE LOOKING AT VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WHEN PATCHY VALLEY FOG COULD FORM. THUS...WE`VE
INDICATED A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AT KELM ONLY...AT THIS
EARLY JUNCTURE.

LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER 00Z MON.

.OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR EARLY TUESDAY...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 051043
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
643 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BURN OFF...LEAVING MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
A DRY START TO THE NEW WEEK WILL FADE BEHIND CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...
AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS...AND CONSULTATION WITH WFO STATE
COLLEGE...WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND ALSO INCLUDED SULLIVAN CO. NEW YORK. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...THIS AREA SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST AFFECTED BY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE. DENSE FOG CONDITIONS HAVE ALLEVIATED SOMEWHAT ACROSS
CNTRL NY WHERE EARLIER FOG HAD MORPHED INTO MORE OF A LOW STRATUS
ENVIRONMENT. WE SUSPECT THAT WE HAVE MORE OF A MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
GOING ON AT THIS TIME...AND THIS CAN PROVIDE SOME OF THE WORST FOG
CONDITIONS FOR THE SPIDER WEB OF ELEVATED INTERSTATES THAT CROSS
THROUGH THE POCONOS. ELSEWHERE...HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS TO PROVIDE SOME HIGHLIGHT TO AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
STILL BE OUT THERE BETWEEN OBSERVATION POINTS ACROSS CNY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND WET GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL ALL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
THE BALANCE OF TODAY FORECAST TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM.

925 MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 20C...AND GOOD MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST A MAINLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...NOW PARKED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA FROM SW-NE BY MONDAY MORNING...CONTINUING TO ADD LAYERS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS MAY TEMPER THE FOG SITUATION A BIT...BUT
WILL STILL MENTION PATCHY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN OUR DIRECTION...
BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO TEAM UP WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER...ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NEPA ZONES BY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLY WORKING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THESE
REASONS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
POINTS EAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR CUT ON TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LOW DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT SOME
POINT IN THAT 24 HOURS...WE COULD HAVE A SQUEEZE PLAY GOING ON
WHERE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA HAS VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF PRECIP...WHILE CHANCES LINGER IN THE EAST...AND DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THAT`S
HARD TO CONVEY IN OUR FORECAST METHODOLOGY WITH ANY CLARITY...BUT
HAVE TRIED TO MAKE IT SO IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NOTED
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH LATEST 00Z MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT GRIDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

415 PM SATURDAY UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUN UPDATE... LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-15Z.

THEREAFTER...WE`RE LOOKING AT VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.

LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER 00Z MON.

.OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR EARLY TUESDAY...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 051043
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
643 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BURN OFF...LEAVING MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
A DRY START TO THE NEW WEEK WILL FADE BEHIND CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...
AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS...AND CONSULTATION WITH WFO STATE
COLLEGE...WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND ALSO INCLUDED SULLIVAN CO. NEW YORK. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...THIS AREA SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST AFFECTED BY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE. DENSE FOG CONDITIONS HAVE ALLEVIATED SOMEWHAT ACROSS
CNTRL NY WHERE EARLIER FOG HAD MORPHED INTO MORE OF A LOW STRATUS
ENVIRONMENT. WE SUSPECT THAT WE HAVE MORE OF A MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
GOING ON AT THIS TIME...AND THIS CAN PROVIDE SOME OF THE WORST FOG
CONDITIONS FOR THE SPIDER WEB OF ELEVATED INTERSTATES THAT CROSS
THROUGH THE POCONOS. ELSEWHERE...HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS TO PROVIDE SOME HIGHLIGHT TO AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
STILL BE OUT THERE BETWEEN OBSERVATION POINTS ACROSS CNY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND WET GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL ALL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
THE BALANCE OF TODAY FORECAST TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM.

925 MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 20C...AND GOOD MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST A MAINLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...NOW PARKED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA FROM SW-NE BY MONDAY MORNING...CONTINUING TO ADD LAYERS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS MAY TEMPER THE FOG SITUATION A BIT...BUT
WILL STILL MENTION PATCHY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN OUR DIRECTION...
BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO TEAM UP WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER...ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NEPA ZONES BY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLY WORKING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THESE
REASONS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
POINTS EAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR CUT ON TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LOW DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT SOME
POINT IN THAT 24 HOURS...WE COULD HAVE A SQUEEZE PLAY GOING ON
WHERE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA HAS VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF PRECIP...WHILE CHANCES LINGER IN THE EAST...AND DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THAT`S
HARD TO CONVEY IN OUR FORECAST METHODOLOGY WITH ANY CLARITY...BUT
HAVE TRIED TO MAKE IT SO IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NOTED
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH LATEST 00Z MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT GRIDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

415 PM SATURDAY UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUN UPDATE... LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-15Z.

THEREAFTER...WE`RE LOOKING AT VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.

LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER 00Z MON.

.OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR EARLY TUESDAY...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 051043
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
643 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BURN OFF...LEAVING MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
A DRY START TO THE NEW WEEK WILL FADE BEHIND CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...
AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS...AND CONSULTATION WITH WFO STATE
COLLEGE...WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND ALSO INCLUDED SULLIVAN CO. NEW YORK. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...THIS AREA SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST AFFECTED BY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE. DENSE FOG CONDITIONS HAVE ALLEVIATED SOMEWHAT ACROSS
CNTRL NY WHERE EARLIER FOG HAD MORPHED INTO MORE OF A LOW STRATUS
ENVIRONMENT. WE SUSPECT THAT WE HAVE MORE OF A MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
GOING ON AT THIS TIME...AND THIS CAN PROVIDE SOME OF THE WORST FOG
CONDITIONS FOR THE SPIDER WEB OF ELEVATED INTERSTATES THAT CROSS
THROUGH THE POCONOS. ELSEWHERE...HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS TO PROVIDE SOME HIGHLIGHT TO AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
STILL BE OUT THERE BETWEEN OBSERVATION POINTS ACROSS CNY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND WET GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL ALL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
THE BALANCE OF TODAY FORECAST TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM.

925 MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 20C...AND GOOD MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST A MAINLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...NOW PARKED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA FROM SW-NE BY MONDAY MORNING...CONTINUING TO ADD LAYERS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS MAY TEMPER THE FOG SITUATION A BIT...BUT
WILL STILL MENTION PATCHY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN OUR DIRECTION...
BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO TEAM UP WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER...ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NEPA ZONES BY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLY WORKING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THESE
REASONS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
POINTS EAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR CUT ON TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LOW DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT SOME
POINT IN THAT 24 HOURS...WE COULD HAVE A SQUEEZE PLAY GOING ON
WHERE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA HAS VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF PRECIP...WHILE CHANCES LINGER IN THE EAST...AND DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THAT`S
HARD TO CONVEY IN OUR FORECAST METHODOLOGY WITH ANY CLARITY...BUT
HAVE TRIED TO MAKE IT SO IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NOTED
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH LATEST 00Z MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT GRIDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

415 PM SATURDAY UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUN UPDATE... LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-15Z.

THEREAFTER...WE`RE LOOKING AT VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.

LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER 00Z MON.

.OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR EARLY TUESDAY...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 050811
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
411 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BURN OFF...LEAVING MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
A DRY START TO THE NEW WEEK WILL FADE BEHIND CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...
AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS...AND CONSULTATION WITH WFO STATE
COLLEGE...WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND ALSO INCLUDED SULLIVAN CO. NEW YORK. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...THIS AREA SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST AFFECTED BY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE. DENSE FOG CONDITIONS HAVE ALLEVIATED SOMEWHAT ACROSS
CNTRL NY WHERE EARLIER FOG HAD MORPHED INTO MORE OF A LOW STRATUS
ENVIRONMENT. WE SUSPECT THAT WE HAVE MORE OF A MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
GOING ON AT THIS TIME...AND THIS CAN PROVIDE SOME OF THE WORST FOG
CONDITIONS FOR THE SPIDER WEB OF ELEVATED INTERSTATES THAT CROSS
THROUGH THE POCONOS. ELSEWHERE...HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS TO PROVIDE SOME HIGHLIGHT TO AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
STILL BE OUT THERE BETWEEN OBSERVATION POINTS ACROSS CNY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND WET GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL ALL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
THE BALANCE OF TODAY FORECAST TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM.

925 MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 20C...AND GOOD MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST A MAINLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...NOW PARKED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA FROM SW-NE BY MONDAY MORNING...CONTINUING TO ADD LAYERS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS MAY TEMPER THE FOG SITUATION A BIT...BUT
WILL STILL MENTION PATCHY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN OUR DIRECTION...
BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO TEAM UP WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER...ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NEPA ZONES BY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLY WORKING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THESE
REASONS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
POINTS EAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR CUT ON TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LOW DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT SOME
POINT IN THAT 24 HOURS...WE COULD HAVE A SQUEEZE PLAY GOING ON
WHERE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA HAS VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF PRECIP...WHILE CHANCES LINGER IN THE EAST...AND DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THAT`S
HARD TO CONVEY IN OUR FORECAST METHODOLOGY WITH ANY CLARITY...BUT
HAVE TRIED TO MAKE IT SO IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NOTED
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH LATEST 00Z MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT GRIDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

415 PM SATURDAY UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUN UPDATE... WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL LEAD TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. THE BEST
CHANCE TO ECLIPSE FIELD MINIMA WILL BE AT KELM.

ONCE THE LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF BY 12-14Z...WE`RE LOOKING
AT VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER 00Z MON.

.OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR EARLY TUESDAY...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 050811
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
411 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BURN OFF...LEAVING MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
A DRY START TO THE NEW WEEK WILL FADE BEHIND CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...
AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS...AND CONSULTATION WITH WFO STATE
COLLEGE...WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND ALSO INCLUDED SULLIVAN CO. NEW YORK. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...THIS AREA SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST AFFECTED BY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE. DENSE FOG CONDITIONS HAVE ALLEVIATED SOMEWHAT ACROSS
CNTRL NY WHERE EARLIER FOG HAD MORPHED INTO MORE OF A LOW STRATUS
ENVIRONMENT. WE SUSPECT THAT WE HAVE MORE OF A MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
GOING ON AT THIS TIME...AND THIS CAN PROVIDE SOME OF THE WORST FOG
CONDITIONS FOR THE SPIDER WEB OF ELEVATED INTERSTATES THAT CROSS
THROUGH THE POCONOS. ELSEWHERE...HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS TO PROVIDE SOME HIGHLIGHT TO AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
STILL BE OUT THERE BETWEEN OBSERVATION POINTS ACROSS CNY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND WET GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL ALL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
THE BALANCE OF TODAY FORECAST TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM.

925 MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 20C...AND GOOD MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST A MAINLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...NOW PARKED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA FROM SW-NE BY MONDAY MORNING...CONTINUING TO ADD LAYERS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS MAY TEMPER THE FOG SITUATION A BIT...BUT
WILL STILL MENTION PATCHY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN OUR DIRECTION...
BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO TEAM UP WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER...ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NEPA ZONES BY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLY WORKING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THESE
REASONS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
POINTS EAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR CUT ON TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LOW DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT SOME
POINT IN THAT 24 HOURS...WE COULD HAVE A SQUEEZE PLAY GOING ON
WHERE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA HAS VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF PRECIP...WHILE CHANCES LINGER IN THE EAST...AND DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THAT`S
HARD TO CONVEY IN OUR FORECAST METHODOLOGY WITH ANY CLARITY...BUT
HAVE TRIED TO MAKE IT SO IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NOTED
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH LATEST 00Z MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT GRIDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

415 PM SATURDAY UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUN UPDATE... WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL LEAD TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. THE BEST
CHANCE TO ECLIPSE FIELD MINIMA WILL BE AT KELM.

ONCE THE LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF BY 12-14Z...WE`RE LOOKING
AT VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER 00Z MON.

.OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR EARLY TUESDAY...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 050713
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
313 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BURN OFF...LEAVING MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
A DRY START TO THE NEW WEEK WILL FADE BEHIND CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND WET GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL ALL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
THE BALANCE OF TODAY FORECAST TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM.

925 MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 20C...AND GOOD MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST A MAINLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...NOW PARKED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA FROM SW-NE BY MONDAY MORNING...CONTINUING TO ADD LAYERS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS MAY TEMPER THE FOG SITUATION A BIT...BUT
WILL STILL MENTION PATCHY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN OUR DIRECTION...
BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO TEAM UP WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER...ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NEPA ZONES BY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLY WORKING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THESE
REASONS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
POINTS EAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR CUT ON TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LOW DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT SOME
POINT IN THAT 24 HOURS...WE COULD HAVE A SQUEEZE PLAY GOING ON
WHERE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA HAS VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF PRECIP...WHILE CHANCES LINGER IN THE EAST...AND DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THAT`S
HARD TO CONVEY IN OUR FORECAST METHODOLOGY WITH ANY CLARITY...BUT
HAVE TRIED TO MAKE IT SO IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NOTED
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH LATEST 00Z MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT GRIDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

415 PM SATURDAY UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUN UPDATE... WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL LEAD TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. THE BEST
CHANCE TO ECLIPSE FIELD MINIMA WILL BE AT KELM.

ONCE THE LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF BY 12-14Z...WE`RE LOOKING
AT VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER 00Z MON.

.OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR EARLY TUESDAY...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 050705
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
305 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BURN OFF...LEAVING MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
A DRY START TO THE NEW WEEK WILL FADE BEHIND CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND WET GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL ALL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
THE BALANCE OF TODAY FORECAST TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM.

925 MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 20C...AND GOOD MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST A MAINLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...NOW PARKED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA FROM SW-NE BY MONDAY MORNING...CONTINUING TO ADD LAYERS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS MAY TEMPER THE FOG SITUATION A BIT...BUT
WILL STILL MENTION PATCHY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN OUR DIRECTION...
BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO TEAM UP WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER...ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NEPA ZONES BY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLY WORKING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THESE
REASONS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
POINTS EAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR CUT ON TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LOW DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT SOME
POINT IN THAT 24 HOURS...WE COULD HAVE A SQUEEZE PLAY GOING ON
WHERE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA HAS VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF PRECIP...WHILE CHANCES LINGER IN THE EAST...AND DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THAT`S
HARD TO CONVEY IN OUR FORECAST METHODOLOGY WITH ANY CLARITY...BUT
HAVE TRIED TO MAKE IT SO IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NOTED
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH LATEST 00Z MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT GRIDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

415 PM SATURDAY UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUN UPDATE... WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL LEAD TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. THE BEST
CHANCE TO ECLIPSE FIELD MINIMA WILL BE AT KELM.

ONCE THE LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF BY 12-14Z...WE`RE LOOKING
AT VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER 00Z MON.

.OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR EARLY TUESDAY...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 050705
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
305 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BURN OFF...LEAVING MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
A DRY START TO THE NEW WEEK WILL FADE BEHIND CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND WET GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL ALL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
THE BALANCE OF TODAY FORECAST TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM.

925 MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 20C...AND GOOD MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST A MAINLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...NOW PARKED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA FROM SW-NE BY MONDAY MORNING...CONTINUING TO ADD LAYERS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS MAY TEMPER THE FOG SITUATION A BIT...BUT
WILL STILL MENTION PATCHY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN OUR DIRECTION...
BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO TEAM UP WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER...ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NEPA ZONES BY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLY WORKING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THESE
REASONS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
POINTS EAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR CUT ON TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LOW DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT SOME
POINT IN THAT 24 HOURS...WE COULD HAVE A SQUEEZE PLAY GOING ON
WHERE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA HAS VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF PRECIP...WHILE CHANCES LINGER IN THE EAST...AND DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THAT`S
HARD TO CONVEY IN OUR FORECAST METHODOLOGY WITH ANY CLARITY...BUT
HAVE TRIED TO MAKE IT SO IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NOTED
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH LATEST 00Z MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT GRIDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

415 PM SATURDAY UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUN UPDATE... WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL LEAD TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. THE BEST
CHANCE TO ECLIPSE FIELD MINIMA WILL BE AT KELM.

ONCE THE LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF BY 12-14Z...WE`RE LOOKING
AT VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER 00Z MON.

.OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR EARLY TUESDAY...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 050605
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SLOW CLEARING THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. DENSE FOG WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT BUT SKIES WILL CLEAR
SUNDAY MORNING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OVER THE
WRN/NRN CWA EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM ALL THE
RECENT RAINS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FOG OVERNIGHT. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE JUST SOME TEMP ADJUSTMENTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

PREVIOUS DISC...
PCPN CONTS TO PULL OUT OF THE ERN ZONES ATTM BUT WITH PLENTY OF
LL MOISTURE UNDER AN UPR TROF...SKIES CONT TO BE SLOW TO CLR...ESP
OVER THE HISS OF THE SRN TIER AND NEPA WHERE ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING
WENT THRU. A FEW LGT RETURNS ON THE RADAR TO THE WEST AND THE MESO
SCALE MODELS DO SHOW SOME ISLTD SHWRS SO WILL PRBLY KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS IN BUT PRBLY REMOVE CHANCE OF TRW SINCE THERE/S NOT
ALL THAT MUCH INSTABILITY.

DENSE FOG SEEMS LIKELY TNGT AS THE FOG CLRS AND THERE/S AN
ABUNDANCE OF LL MOISTURE LEFT BY THE MRNG RAIN. LGT WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE LACK OF MIXING.

SUNDAY LIVING UP TO IT/S NAME WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA.
AFTN HIGHS INTO THE LWR 80S A GOOD BET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH FINISHES MOVING THROUGH...AND
INTO MOST OF MONDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN
UPPER WAVE WILL BRIEFLY BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BEFORE OPENING BACK UP WHILE MERGING INTO WSW FLOW.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND A POCKET OF
DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED WITH THE UPPER LOW-WAVE...WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...BETTER LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAWIDE BATCH OF RAIN WILL COME
ONCE A COLD FRONT RUNS INTO THE MOIST AIR. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL
HAS THAT FRONT POISED TO OUR WEST 00Z WED...THOUGH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY INITIATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER OF ITS
OWN. THAT BEING SAID...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG NOR
ORGANIZED DUE TO LACK OF SHEAR AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUN UPDATE... WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL LEAD TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. THE BEST
CHANCE TO ECLIPSE FIELD MINIMA WILL BE AT KELM.

ONCE THE LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF BY 12-14Z...WE`RE LOOKING
AT VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER 00Z MON.

.OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR EARLY TUESDAY...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 050605
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SLOW CLEARING THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. DENSE FOG WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT BUT SKIES WILL CLEAR
SUNDAY MORNING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OVER THE
WRN/NRN CWA EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM ALL THE
RECENT RAINS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FOG OVERNIGHT. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE JUST SOME TEMP ADJUSTMENTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

PREVIOUS DISC...
PCPN CONTS TO PULL OUT OF THE ERN ZONES ATTM BUT WITH PLENTY OF
LL MOISTURE UNDER AN UPR TROF...SKIES CONT TO BE SLOW TO CLR...ESP
OVER THE HISS OF THE SRN TIER AND NEPA WHERE ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING
WENT THRU. A FEW LGT RETURNS ON THE RADAR TO THE WEST AND THE MESO
SCALE MODELS DO SHOW SOME ISLTD SHWRS SO WILL PRBLY KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS IN BUT PRBLY REMOVE CHANCE OF TRW SINCE THERE/S NOT
ALL THAT MUCH INSTABILITY.

DENSE FOG SEEMS LIKELY TNGT AS THE FOG CLRS AND THERE/S AN
ABUNDANCE OF LL MOISTURE LEFT BY THE MRNG RAIN. LGT WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE LACK OF MIXING.

SUNDAY LIVING UP TO IT/S NAME WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA.
AFTN HIGHS INTO THE LWR 80S A GOOD BET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH FINISHES MOVING THROUGH...AND
INTO MOST OF MONDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN
UPPER WAVE WILL BRIEFLY BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BEFORE OPENING BACK UP WHILE MERGING INTO WSW FLOW.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND A POCKET OF
DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED WITH THE UPPER LOW-WAVE...WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...BETTER LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAWIDE BATCH OF RAIN WILL COME
ONCE A COLD FRONT RUNS INTO THE MOIST AIR. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL
HAS THAT FRONT POISED TO OUR WEST 00Z WED...THOUGH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY INITIATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER OF ITS
OWN. THAT BEING SAID...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG NOR
ORGANIZED DUE TO LACK OF SHEAR AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUN UPDATE... WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL LEAD TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. THE BEST
CHANCE TO ECLIPSE FIELD MINIMA WILL BE AT KELM.

ONCE THE LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF BY 12-14Z...WE`RE LOOKING
AT VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER 00Z MON.

.OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR EARLY TUESDAY...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 050121
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
921 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SLOW CLEARING THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. DENSE FOG WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT BUT SKIES WILL CLEAR
SUNDAY MORNING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OVER THE
WRN/NRN CWA EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM ALL THE
RECENT RAINS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FOG OVERNIGHT. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE JUST SOME TEMP ADJUSTMENTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

PREVIOUS DISC...
PCPN CONTS TO PULL OUT OF THE ERN ZONES ATTM BUT WITH PLENTY OF
LL MOISTURE UNDER AN UPR TROF...SKIES CONT TO BE SLOW TO CLR...ESP
OVER THE HISS OF THE SRN TIER AND NEPA WHERE ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING
WENT THRU. A FEW LGT RETURNS ON THE RADAR TO THE WEST AND THE MESO
SCALE MODELS DO SHOW SOME ISLTD SHWRS SO WILL PRBLY KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS IN BUT PRBLY REMOVE CHANCE OF TRW SINCE THERE/S NOT
ALL THAT MUCH INSTABILITY.

DENSE FOG SEEMS LIKELY TNGT AS THE FOG CLRS AND THERE/S AN
ABUNDANCE OF LL MOISTURE LEFT BY THE MRNG RAIN. LGT WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE LACK OF MIXING.

SUNDAY LIVING UP TO IT/S NAME WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA.
AFTN HIGHS INTO THE LWR 80S A GOOD BET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH FINISHES MOVING THROUGH...AND
INTO MOST OF MONDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN
UPPER WAVE WILL BRIEFLY BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BEFORE OPENING BACK UP WHILE MERGING INTO WSW FLOW.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND A POCKET OF
DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED WITH THE UPPER LOW-WAVE...WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...BETTER LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAWIDE BATCH OF RAIN WILL COME
ONCE A COLD FRONT RUNS INTO THE MOIST AIR. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL
HAS THAT FRONT POISED TO OUR WEST 00Z WED...THOUGH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY INITIATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER OF ITS
OWN. THAT BEING SAID...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG NOR
ORGANIZED DUE TO LACK OF SHEAR AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. AS THE SKY CLEARS THIS
EVENING...SURFACE INVERSION WILL DEVELOP AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION COURTESY
OF RECENT RAINFALL...WE ARE EXPECTING FAIRLY SOLID BATCH OF VALLEY
FOG TO DEVELOP FIRST FOR KELM AND THEN OTHER TERMINALS AS WELL.
KELM SHOULD BE NEAR AIRPORT MINS 06Z-13Z...AND FOR KAVP-KBGM
DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST IFR VIS AND/OR CIG. KITH IS
TRICKIER...WITH AT LEAST MVFR VIS LIKELY /THUS THAT IS WHAT IS IN
TAF/ BUT WORSE IS POSSIBLE. KSYR-KRME HAS NOT RECEIVED RAINFALL
TODAY AND SO FOG-LOW STRATUS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP
THERE. HOWEVER...SOME IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY KRME. AFTER FOG LIFTS-
DISSIPATES 12Z-13Z...SUNNY VFR DAY WITH WNW WIND UNDER 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...MON...EARLY TUE...OTHER THAN EARLY MRNG FOG...VFR.

LATE TUE THROUGH WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHRA-TSRA.

THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 042300
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
700 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SLOW CLEARING THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. DENSE FOG WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT BUT SKIES WILL CLEAR
SUNDAY MORNING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PCPN CONTS TO PULL OUT OF THE ERN ZONES ATTM BUT WITH PLENTY OF LL
MOISTURE UNDER AN UPR TROF...SKIES CONT TO BE SLOW TO CLR...ESP
OVER THE HISS OF THE SRN TIER AND NEPA WHERE ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING
WENT THRU. A FEW LGT RETURNS ON THE RADAR TO THE WEST AND THE
MESO SCALE MODELS DO SHOW SOME ISLTD SHWRS SO WILL PRBLY KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS IN BUT PRBLY REMOVE CHANCE OF TRW SINCE THERE/S NOT
ALL THAT MUCH INSTABILITY.

DENSE FOG SEEMS LIKELY TNGT AS THE FOG CLRS AND THERE/S AN
ABUNDANCE OF LL MOISTURE LEFT BY THE MRNG RAIN. LGT WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE LACK OF MIXING.

SUNDAY LIVING UP TO IT/S NAME WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA.
AFTN HIGHS INTO THE LWR 80S A GOOD BET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH FINISHES MOVING THROUGH...AND
INTO MOST OF MONDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN
UPPER WAVE WILL BRIEFLY BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BEFORE OPENING BACK UP WHILE MERGING INTO WSW FLOW.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND A POCKET OF
DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED WITH THE UPPER LOW-WAVE...WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...BETTER LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAWIDE BATCH OF RAIN WILL COME
ONCE A COLD FRONT RUNS INTO THE MOIST AIR. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL
HAS THAT FRONT POISED TO OUR WEST 00Z WED...THOUGH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY INITIATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER OF ITS
OWN. THAT BEING SAID...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG NOR
ORGANIZED DUE TO LACK OF SHEAR AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. AS THE SKY CLEARS THIS
EVENING...SURFACE INVERSION WILL DEVELOP AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION COURTESY
OF RECENT RAINFALL...WE ARE EXPECTING FAIRLY SOLID BATCH OF VALLEY
FOG TO DEVELOP FIRST FOR KELM AND THEN OTHER TERMINALS AS WELL.
KELM SHOULD BE NEAR AIRPORT MINS 06Z-13Z...AND FOR KAVP-KBGM
DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST IFR VIS AND/OR CIG. KITH IS
TRICKIER...WITH AT LEAST MVFR VIS LIKELY /THUS THAT IS WHAT IS IN
TAF/ BUT WORSE IS POSSIBLE. KSYR-KRME HAS NOT RECEIVED RAINFALL
TODAY AND SO FOG-LOW STRATUS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP
THERE. HOWEVER...SOME IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY KRME. AFTER FOG LIFTS-
DISSIPATES 12Z-13Z...SUNNY VFR DAY WITH WNW WIND UNDER 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...MON...EARLY TUE...OTHER THAN EARLY MRNG FOG...VFR.

LATE TUE THROUGH WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHRA-TSRA.

THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 042300
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
700 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SLOW CLEARING THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. DENSE FOG WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT BUT SKIES WILL CLEAR
SUNDAY MORNING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PCPN CONTS TO PULL OUT OF THE ERN ZONES ATTM BUT WITH PLENTY OF LL
MOISTURE UNDER AN UPR TROF...SKIES CONT TO BE SLOW TO CLR...ESP
OVER THE HISS OF THE SRN TIER AND NEPA WHERE ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING
WENT THRU. A FEW LGT RETURNS ON THE RADAR TO THE WEST AND THE
MESO SCALE MODELS DO SHOW SOME ISLTD SHWRS SO WILL PRBLY KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS IN BUT PRBLY REMOVE CHANCE OF TRW SINCE THERE/S NOT
ALL THAT MUCH INSTABILITY.

DENSE FOG SEEMS LIKELY TNGT AS THE FOG CLRS AND THERE/S AN
ABUNDANCE OF LL MOISTURE LEFT BY THE MRNG RAIN. LGT WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE LACK OF MIXING.

SUNDAY LIVING UP TO IT/S NAME WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA.
AFTN HIGHS INTO THE LWR 80S A GOOD BET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH FINISHES MOVING THROUGH...AND
INTO MOST OF MONDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN
UPPER WAVE WILL BRIEFLY BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BEFORE OPENING BACK UP WHILE MERGING INTO WSW FLOW.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND A POCKET OF
DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED WITH THE UPPER LOW-WAVE...WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...BETTER LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAWIDE BATCH OF RAIN WILL COME
ONCE A COLD FRONT RUNS INTO THE MOIST AIR. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL
HAS THAT FRONT POISED TO OUR WEST 00Z WED...THOUGH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY INITIATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER OF ITS
OWN. THAT BEING SAID...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG NOR
ORGANIZED DUE TO LACK OF SHEAR AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. AS THE SKY CLEARS THIS
EVENING...SURFACE INVERSION WILL DEVELOP AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION COURTESY
OF RECENT RAINFALL...WE ARE EXPECTING FAIRLY SOLID BATCH OF VALLEY
FOG TO DEVELOP FIRST FOR KELM AND THEN OTHER TERMINALS AS WELL.
KELM SHOULD BE NEAR AIRPORT MINS 06Z-13Z...AND FOR KAVP-KBGM
DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST IFR VIS AND/OR CIG. KITH IS
TRICKIER...WITH AT LEAST MVFR VIS LIKELY /THUS THAT IS WHAT IS IN
TAF/ BUT WORSE IS POSSIBLE. KSYR-KRME HAS NOT RECEIVED RAINFALL
TODAY AND SO FOG-LOW STRATUS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP
THERE. HOWEVER...SOME IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY KRME. AFTER FOG LIFTS-
DISSIPATES 12Z-13Z...SUNNY VFR DAY WITH WNW WIND UNDER 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...MON...EARLY TUE...OTHER THAN EARLY MRNG FOG...VFR.

LATE TUE THROUGH WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHRA-TSRA.

THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 042014
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
414 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SLOW CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DENSE FOG WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT BUT SKIES
WILL CLEAR SUNDAY MORNING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PCPN CONTS TO PULL OUT OF THE ERN ZONES ATTM BUT WITH PLENTY OF LL
MOISTURE UNDER AN UPR TROF...SKIES CONT TO BE SLOW TO CLR...ESP
OVER THE HISS OF THE SRN TIER AND NEPA WHERE ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING
WENT THRU. A FEW LGT RETURNS ON THE RADAR TO THE WEST AND THE
MESO SCALE MODELS DO SHOW SOME ISLTD SHWRS SO WILL PRBLY KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS IN BUT PRBLY REMOVE CHANCE OF TRW SINCE THERE/S NOT
ALL THAT MUCH INSTABILITY.

DENSE FOG SEEMS LIKELY TNGT AS THE FOG CLRS AND THERE/S AN
ABUNDANCE OF LL MOISTURE LEFT BY THE MRNG RAIN. LGT WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE LACK OF MIXING.

SUNDAY LIVING UP TO IT/S NAME WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA.
AFTN HIGHS INTO THE LWR 80S A GOOD BET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH FINISHES MOVING THROUGH...AND
INTO MOST OF MONDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN
UPPER WAVE WILL BRIEFLY BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BEFORE OPENING BACK UP WHILE MERGING INTO WSW FLOW.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND A POCKET OF
DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED WITH THE UPPER LOW-WAVE...WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...BETTER LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAWIDE BATCH OF RAIN WILL COME
ONCE A COLD FRONT RUNS INTO THE MOIST AIR. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL
HAS THAT FRONT POISED TO OUR WEST 00Z WED...THOUGH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY INITIATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER OF ITS
OWN. THAT BEING SAID...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG NOR
ORGANIZED DUE TO LACK OF SHEAR AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN HAS MVD OUT OF THE TAF SITES BUT PLENTY LL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO LINGER FOR A CPL HRS...ESP OVER THE EAST AND
SOUTH. OVRNGT...SKIES CLR BUT DENSE VLY FOG LIKELY WITH THE WET
GND AND LGT WINDS. VFR ONDS RETURN AFT 12Z WITH SUNSHINE AND MUCH
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. ALL FOG SHD BE GONE BY ARND
14Z. LOOSE GRADIENT CONTS SO WINDS REMAIN LGT THRU THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...MON...EARLY TUE...OTR THAN EARLY MRNG FOG...VFR.

LATE TUE AND WED...MVFR AND ISLTD IFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RW AND
TRW.

THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...DGM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 042014
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
414 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SLOW CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DENSE FOG WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT BUT SKIES
WILL CLEAR SUNDAY MORNING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PCPN CONTS TO PULL OUT OF THE ERN ZONES ATTM BUT WITH PLENTY OF LL
MOISTURE UNDER AN UPR TROF...SKIES CONT TO BE SLOW TO CLR...ESP
OVER THE HISS OF THE SRN TIER AND NEPA WHERE ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING
WENT THRU. A FEW LGT RETURNS ON THE RADAR TO THE WEST AND THE
MESO SCALE MODELS DO SHOW SOME ISLTD SHWRS SO WILL PRBLY KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS IN BUT PRBLY REMOVE CHANCE OF TRW SINCE THERE/S NOT
ALL THAT MUCH INSTABILITY.

DENSE FOG SEEMS LIKELY TNGT AS THE FOG CLRS AND THERE/S AN
ABUNDANCE OF LL MOISTURE LEFT BY THE MRNG RAIN. LGT WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE LACK OF MIXING.

SUNDAY LIVING UP TO IT/S NAME WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA.
AFTN HIGHS INTO THE LWR 80S A GOOD BET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH FINISHES MOVING THROUGH...AND
INTO MOST OF MONDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN
UPPER WAVE WILL BRIEFLY BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BEFORE OPENING BACK UP WHILE MERGING INTO WSW FLOW.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND A POCKET OF
DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED WITH THE UPPER LOW-WAVE...WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...BETTER LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAWIDE BATCH OF RAIN WILL COME
ONCE A COLD FRONT RUNS INTO THE MOIST AIR. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL
HAS THAT FRONT POISED TO OUR WEST 00Z WED...THOUGH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY INITIATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER OF ITS
OWN. THAT BEING SAID...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG NOR
ORGANIZED DUE TO LACK OF SHEAR AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN HAS MVD OUT OF THE TAF SITES BUT PLENTY LL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO LINGER FOR A CPL HRS...ESP OVER THE EAST AND
SOUTH. OVRNGT...SKIES CLR BUT DENSE VLY FOG LIKELY WITH THE WET
GND AND LGT WINDS. VFR ONDS RETURN AFT 12Z WITH SUNSHINE AND MUCH
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. ALL FOG SHD BE GONE BY ARND
14Z. LOOSE GRADIENT CONTS SO WINDS REMAIN LGT THRU THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...MON...EARLY TUE...OTR THAN EARLY MRNG FOG...VFR.

LATE TUE AND WED...MVFR AND ISLTD IFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RW AND
TRW.

THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...DGM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 041745
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT SLOW CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DENSE FOG WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT BUT SKIES
WILL CLEAR SUNDAY MORNING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

PCPN CONTS TO PULL OUT OF THE ERN ZONES ATTM BUT WITH PLENTY OF LL
MOISTURE UNDER AN UPR TROF...SKIES CONT TO BE SLOW TO CLR...ESP
OVER THE HISS OF THE SRN TIER AND NEPA WHERE ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING
WENT THRU. A FEW LGT RETUNS ON THE RADAR TO THE WEST AND THE MESO
SCALE MODELS DO SHOW SOME ISLTD SHWRS SO WILL PRBLY KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS IN BUT PRBLY REMOVE CHANCE OF TRW SINCE THERE/S NOT
ALL THAT MUCH INSTABILITY.

DENSE FOG SEEMS LIKELY TNGT AS THE FOG CLRS AND THERE/S AN
ABUNDANCE OF LL MOISTURE LEFT BY THE MRNG RAIN. LGT WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE LACK OF MIXING.

SUNDAY LIVING UP TO IT/S NAME WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA.
AFTN HIGHS INTO THE LWR 80S A GOOD BET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
MOIST GROUND... THEN SUNSHINE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

RAIN HAS MVD OUT OF THE TAF SITES BUT PLENTY LL MOISTURE WILL
ALOWL MVFR CIGS TO LINGER FOR A CPL HRS...ESP OVER THE EAST AND
SOUTH. OVRNGT...SKIES CLR BUT DENSE VLY FOG LIKELY WITH THE WET
GND AND LGT WINDS. VFR ONDS RETURN AFT 12Z WITH SUNSHINE AND MUCH
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. ALL FOG SHD BE GONE BY ARND
14Z. LOOSE GRADIENT CONTS SO WINDS REMAIN LGT THRU THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...MON...EARLY TUE...OTR THAN EARLY MRNG FOG...VFR.

LATE TUE AND WED...MVFR AND ISLTD IFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RW AND
TRW.

THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...DGM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 041745
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT SLOW CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DENSE FOG WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT BUT SKIES
WILL CLEAR SUNDAY MORNING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

PCPN CONTS TO PULL OUT OF THE ERN ZONES ATTM BUT WITH PLENTY OF LL
MOISTURE UNDER AN UPR TROF...SKIES CONT TO BE SLOW TO CLR...ESP
OVER THE HISS OF THE SRN TIER AND NEPA WHERE ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING
WENT THRU. A FEW LGT RETUNS ON THE RADAR TO THE WEST AND THE MESO
SCALE MODELS DO SHOW SOME ISLTD SHWRS SO WILL PRBLY KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS IN BUT PRBLY REMOVE CHANCE OF TRW SINCE THERE/S NOT
ALL THAT MUCH INSTABILITY.

DENSE FOG SEEMS LIKELY TNGT AS THE FOG CLRS AND THERE/S AN
ABUNDANCE OF LL MOISTURE LEFT BY THE MRNG RAIN. LGT WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE LACK OF MIXING.

SUNDAY LIVING UP TO IT/S NAME WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA.
AFTN HIGHS INTO THE LWR 80S A GOOD BET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
MOIST GROUND... THEN SUNSHINE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

RAIN HAS MVD OUT OF THE TAF SITES BUT PLENTY LL MOISTURE WILL
ALOWL MVFR CIGS TO LINGER FOR A CPL HRS...ESP OVER THE EAST AND
SOUTH. OVRNGT...SKIES CLR BUT DENSE VLY FOG LIKELY WITH THE WET
GND AND LGT WINDS. VFR ONDS RETURN AFT 12Z WITH SUNSHINE AND MUCH
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. ALL FOG SHD BE GONE BY ARND
14Z. LOOSE GRADIENT CONTS SO WINDS REMAIN LGT THRU THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...MON...EARLY TUE...OTR THAN EARLY MRNG FOG...VFR.

LATE TUE AND WED...MVFR AND ISLTD IFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RW AND
TRW.

THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...DGM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 041745
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT SLOW CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DENSE FOG WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT BUT SKIES
WILL CLEAR SUNDAY MORNING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

PCPN CONTS TO PULL OUT OF THE ERN ZONES ATTM BUT WITH PLENTY OF LL
MOISTURE UNDER AN UPR TROF...SKIES CONT TO BE SLOW TO CLR...ESP
OVER THE HISS OF THE SRN TIER AND NEPA WHERE ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING
WENT THRU. A FEW LGT RETUNS ON THE RADAR TO THE WEST AND THE MESO
SCALE MODELS DO SHOW SOME ISLTD SHWRS SO WILL PRBLY KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS IN BUT PRBLY REMOVE CHANCE OF TRW SINCE THERE/S NOT
ALL THAT MUCH INSTABILITY.

DENSE FOG SEEMS LIKELY TNGT AS THE FOG CLRS AND THERE/S AN
ABUNDANCE OF LL MOISTURE LEFT BY THE MRNG RAIN. LGT WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE LACK OF MIXING.

SUNDAY LIVING UP TO IT/S NAME WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA.
AFTN HIGHS INTO THE LWR 80S A GOOD BET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
MOIST GROUND... THEN SUNSHINE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

RAIN HAS MVD OUT OF THE TAF SITES BUT PLENTY LL MOISTURE WILL
ALOWL MVFR CIGS TO LINGER FOR A CPL HRS...ESP OVER THE EAST AND
SOUTH. OVRNGT...SKIES CLR BUT DENSE VLY FOG LIKELY WITH THE WET
GND AND LGT WINDS. VFR ONDS RETURN AFT 12Z WITH SUNSHINE AND MUCH
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. ALL FOG SHD BE GONE BY ARND
14Z. LOOSE GRADIENT CONTS SO WINDS REMAIN LGT THRU THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...MON...EARLY TUE...OTR THAN EARLY MRNG FOG...VFR.

LATE TUE AND WED...MVFR AND ISLTD IFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RW AND
TRW.

THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...DGM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 041745
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT SLOW CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DENSE FOG WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT BUT SKIES
WILL CLEAR SUNDAY MORNING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

PCPN CONTS TO PULL OUT OF THE ERN ZONES ATTM BUT WITH PLENTY OF LL
MOISTURE UNDER AN UPR TROF...SKIES CONT TO BE SLOW TO CLR...ESP
OVER THE HISS OF THE SRN TIER AND NEPA WHERE ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING
WENT THRU. A FEW LGT RETUNS ON THE RADAR TO THE WEST AND THE MESO
SCALE MODELS DO SHOW SOME ISLTD SHWRS SO WILL PRBLY KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS IN BUT PRBLY REMOVE CHANCE OF TRW SINCE THERE/S NOT
ALL THAT MUCH INSTABILITY.

DENSE FOG SEEMS LIKELY TNGT AS THE FOG CLRS AND THERE/S AN
ABUNDANCE OF LL MOISTURE LEFT BY THE MRNG RAIN. LGT WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE LACK OF MIXING.

SUNDAY LIVING UP TO IT/S NAME WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA.
AFTN HIGHS INTO THE LWR 80S A GOOD BET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
MOIST GROUND... THEN SUNSHINE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

RAIN HAS MVD OUT OF THE TAF SITES BUT PLENTY LL MOISTURE WILL
ALOWL MVFR CIGS TO LINGER FOR A CPL HRS...ESP OVER THE EAST AND
SOUTH. OVRNGT...SKIES CLR BUT DENSE VLY FOG LIKELY WITH THE WET
GND AND LGT WINDS. VFR ONDS RETURN AFT 12Z WITH SUNSHINE AND MUCH
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. ALL FOG SHD BE GONE BY ARND
14Z. LOOSE GRADIENT CONTS SO WINDS REMAIN LGT THRU THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...MON...EARLY TUE...OTR THAN EARLY MRNG FOG...VFR.

LATE TUE AND WED...MVFR AND ISLTD IFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RW AND
TRW.

THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...DGM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 041437
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1037 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1035 AM UPDATE...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN MVG STEADILY EWRD
ATTM...VERY CLOSE TO THE TIMING IN THE CRNT FCST. CONTD WITH CAT
POPS IN THE EAST WHILE KEEPING CHANCE IN THE WEST FOR ANY HTG
REALTED CONV. LWRD TEMPS A BIT...ESP IN THE EAST WITH THE HEAVY
CLD CVR. NOT OTR CHGS ATTM.

UPDATED AT 630 AM... QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF BRADFORD COUNTY
PA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHTER RAIN FARTHER EAST AND NORTH.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN IS ALONG A LINE FROM BATH TO
CORTLAND TO NEAR UTICA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS
GOTTEN ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS ITS GOING TO GET... MEANING THAT IT
WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH SYRACUSE OR ROME. HOWEVER A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
ARE ALREADY POPPING UP NORTH OF THE STEADY RAIN AND MAY HIT THOSE
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY
RAIN WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST... WITH STEADY RAIN ENDING AT
ELMIRA BY AROUND 9 AM... BINGHAMTON BY 11 AM... AND SCRANTON BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN IN NORTHERN PA... WITH MUCH LESS JUST
TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHERN NY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH
IS BEING ENHANCED BY LIFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850
MB AND A PLUME OF PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES EXTENDING NORTHWARD
ACROSS PA. THE RESULT IS AN AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS PA INTO
SOUTHERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL FROM THE NY/PA
BORDER SOUTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHTER RAIN GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY GETTING NORTH OF
A DANSVILLE TO CORTLAND LINE... AND THIS MAY INDICATE THAT ONLY A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE SYRACUSE/ROME/UTICA
AREAS LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOAKING
FOR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING WITH RADAR ESTIMATES ALREADY
INDICATING OVER HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA AS OF 430
AM.

THE AREA OF STEADIER RAIN WILL PASS EAST OF OUR COUNTIES BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH
AS SOME CLEARING DESTABILIZES THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FINGER LAKES THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
THEY TRY TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS EARLY THIS EVENING.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
MOIST GROUND... THEN SUNSHINE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z SAT UPDATE... SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS AT KELM/KBGM/KAVP. THEREAFTER...THE
STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT OUR AREA TO THE EAST.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WE`VE
INSERTED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDER AT THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY (KRME/KSYR/KITH/KELM).

LATER TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. WE`VE GONE WITH
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AT KELM...AND EITHER IFR OR LOW-END MVFR AT
KITH/KBGM/KAVP.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 14-15Z...WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-8 KNOTS FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GOING BACK TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MSE
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...MLJ





000
FXUS61 KBGM 041437
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1037 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1035 AM UPDATE...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN MVG STEADILY EWRD
ATTM...VERY CLOSE TO THE TIMING IN THE CRNT FCST. CONTD WITH CAT
POPS IN THE EAST WHILE KEEPING CHANCE IN THE WEST FOR ANY HTG
REALTED CONV. LWRD TEMPS A BIT...ESP IN THE EAST WITH THE HEAVY
CLD CVR. NOT OTR CHGS ATTM.

UPDATED AT 630 AM... QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF BRADFORD COUNTY
PA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHTER RAIN FARTHER EAST AND NORTH.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN IS ALONG A LINE FROM BATH TO
CORTLAND TO NEAR UTICA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS
GOTTEN ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS ITS GOING TO GET... MEANING THAT IT
WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH SYRACUSE OR ROME. HOWEVER A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
ARE ALREADY POPPING UP NORTH OF THE STEADY RAIN AND MAY HIT THOSE
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY
RAIN WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST... WITH STEADY RAIN ENDING AT
ELMIRA BY AROUND 9 AM... BINGHAMTON BY 11 AM... AND SCRANTON BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN IN NORTHERN PA... WITH MUCH LESS JUST
TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHERN NY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH
IS BEING ENHANCED BY LIFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850
MB AND A PLUME OF PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES EXTENDING NORTHWARD
ACROSS PA. THE RESULT IS AN AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS PA INTO
SOUTHERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL FROM THE NY/PA
BORDER SOUTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHTER RAIN GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY GETTING NORTH OF
A DANSVILLE TO CORTLAND LINE... AND THIS MAY INDICATE THAT ONLY A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE SYRACUSE/ROME/UTICA
AREAS LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOAKING
FOR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING WITH RADAR ESTIMATES ALREADY
INDICATING OVER HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA AS OF 430
AM.

THE AREA OF STEADIER RAIN WILL PASS EAST OF OUR COUNTIES BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH
AS SOME CLEARING DESTABILIZES THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FINGER LAKES THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
THEY TRY TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS EARLY THIS EVENING.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
MOIST GROUND... THEN SUNSHINE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z SAT UPDATE... SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS AT KELM/KBGM/KAVP. THEREAFTER...THE
STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT OUR AREA TO THE EAST.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WE`VE
INSERTED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDER AT THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY (KRME/KSYR/KITH/KELM).

LATER TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. WE`VE GONE WITH
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AT KELM...AND EITHER IFR OR LOW-END MVFR AT
KITH/KBGM/KAVP.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 14-15Z...WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-8 KNOTS FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GOING BACK TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MSE
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBGM 041437
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1037 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1035 AM UPDATE...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN MVG STEADILY EWRD
ATTM...VERY CLOSE TO THE TIMING IN THE CRNT FCST. CONTD WITH CAT
POPS IN THE EAST WHILE KEEPING CHANCE IN THE WEST FOR ANY HTG
REALTED CONV. LWRD TEMPS A BIT...ESP IN THE EAST WITH THE HEAVY
CLD CVR. NOT OTR CHGS ATTM.

UPDATED AT 630 AM... QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF BRADFORD COUNTY
PA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHTER RAIN FARTHER EAST AND NORTH.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN IS ALONG A LINE FROM BATH TO
CORTLAND TO NEAR UTICA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS
GOTTEN ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS ITS GOING TO GET... MEANING THAT IT
WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH SYRACUSE OR ROME. HOWEVER A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
ARE ALREADY POPPING UP NORTH OF THE STEADY RAIN AND MAY HIT THOSE
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY
RAIN WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST... WITH STEADY RAIN ENDING AT
ELMIRA BY AROUND 9 AM... BINGHAMTON BY 11 AM... AND SCRANTON BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN IN NORTHERN PA... WITH MUCH LESS JUST
TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHERN NY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH
IS BEING ENHANCED BY LIFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850
MB AND A PLUME OF PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES EXTENDING NORTHWARD
ACROSS PA. THE RESULT IS AN AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS PA INTO
SOUTHERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL FROM THE NY/PA
BORDER SOUTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHTER RAIN GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY GETTING NORTH OF
A DANSVILLE TO CORTLAND LINE... AND THIS MAY INDICATE THAT ONLY A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE SYRACUSE/ROME/UTICA
AREAS LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOAKING
FOR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING WITH RADAR ESTIMATES ALREADY
INDICATING OVER HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA AS OF 430
AM.

THE AREA OF STEADIER RAIN WILL PASS EAST OF OUR COUNTIES BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH
AS SOME CLEARING DESTABILIZES THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FINGER LAKES THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
THEY TRY TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS EARLY THIS EVENING.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
MOIST GROUND... THEN SUNSHINE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z SAT UPDATE... SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS AT KELM/KBGM/KAVP. THEREAFTER...THE
STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT OUR AREA TO THE EAST.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WE`VE
INSERTED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDER AT THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY (KRME/KSYR/KITH/KELM).

LATER TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. WE`VE GONE WITH
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AT KELM...AND EITHER IFR OR LOW-END MVFR AT
KITH/KBGM/KAVP.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 14-15Z...WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-8 KNOTS FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GOING BACK TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MSE
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...MLJ





000
FXUS61 KBGM 041437
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1037 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1035 AM UPDATE...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN MVG STEADILY EWRD
ATTM...VERY CLOSE TO THE TIMING IN THE CRNT FCST. CONTD WITH CAT
POPS IN THE EAST WHILE KEEPING CHANCE IN THE WEST FOR ANY HTG
REALTED CONV. LWRD TEMPS A BIT...ESP IN THE EAST WITH THE HEAVY
CLD CVR. NOT OTR CHGS ATTM.

UPDATED AT 630 AM... QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF BRADFORD COUNTY
PA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHTER RAIN FARTHER EAST AND NORTH.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN IS ALONG A LINE FROM BATH TO
CORTLAND TO NEAR UTICA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS
GOTTEN ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS ITS GOING TO GET... MEANING THAT IT
WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH SYRACUSE OR ROME. HOWEVER A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
ARE ALREADY POPPING UP NORTH OF THE STEADY RAIN AND MAY HIT THOSE
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY
RAIN WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST... WITH STEADY RAIN ENDING AT
ELMIRA BY AROUND 9 AM... BINGHAMTON BY 11 AM... AND SCRANTON BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN IN NORTHERN PA... WITH MUCH LESS JUST
TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHERN NY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH
IS BEING ENHANCED BY LIFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850
MB AND A PLUME OF PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES EXTENDING NORTHWARD
ACROSS PA. THE RESULT IS AN AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS PA INTO
SOUTHERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL FROM THE NY/PA
BORDER SOUTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHTER RAIN GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY GETTING NORTH OF
A DANSVILLE TO CORTLAND LINE... AND THIS MAY INDICATE THAT ONLY A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE SYRACUSE/ROME/UTICA
AREAS LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOAKING
FOR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING WITH RADAR ESTIMATES ALREADY
INDICATING OVER HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA AS OF 430
AM.

THE AREA OF STEADIER RAIN WILL PASS EAST OF OUR COUNTIES BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH
AS SOME CLEARING DESTABILIZES THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FINGER LAKES THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
THEY TRY TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS EARLY THIS EVENING.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
MOIST GROUND... THEN SUNSHINE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z SAT UPDATE... SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS AT KELM/KBGM/KAVP. THEREAFTER...THE
STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT OUR AREA TO THE EAST.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WE`VE
INSERTED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDER AT THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY (KRME/KSYR/KITH/KELM).

LATER TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. WE`VE GONE WITH
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AT KELM...AND EITHER IFR OR LOW-END MVFR AT
KITH/KBGM/KAVP.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 14-15Z...WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-8 KNOTS FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GOING BACK TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MSE
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBGM 041056
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
656 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE RAIN
WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN MAINLY DRY
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 630 AM... QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF BRADFORD COUNTY
PA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHTER RAIN FARTHER EAST AND NORTH.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN IS ALONG A LINE FROM BATH TO
CORTLAND TO NEAR UTICA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS
GOTTEN ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS ITS GOING TO GET... MEANING THAT IT
WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH SYRACUSE OR ROME. HOWEVER A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
ARE ALREADY POPPING UP NORTH OF THE STEADY RAIN AND MAY HIT THOSE
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY
RAIN WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST... WITH STEADY RAIN ENDING AT
ELMIRA BY AROUND 9 AM... BINGHAMTON BY 11 AM... AND SCRANTON BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN IN NORTHERN PA... WITH MUCH LESS JUST
TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHERN NY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH
IS BEING ENHANCED BY LIFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850
MB AND A PLUME OF PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES EXTENDING NORTHWARD
ACROSS PA. THE RESULT IS AN AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS PA INTO
SOUTHERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL FROM THE NY/PA
BORDER SOUTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHTER RAIN GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY GETTING NORTH OF
A DANSVILLE TO CORTLAND LINE... AND THIS MAY INDICATE THAT ONLY A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE SYRACUSE/ROME/UTICA
AREAS LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOAKING
FOR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING WITH RADAR ESTIMATES ALREADY
INDICATING OVER HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA AS OF 430
AM.

THE AREA OF STEADIER RAIN WILL PASS EAST OF OUR COUNTIES BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH
AS SOME CLEARING DESTABILIZES THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FINGER LAKES THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
THEY TRY TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS EARLY THIS EVENING.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
MOIST GROUND... THEN SUNSHINE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z SAT UPDATE... SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS AT KELM/KBGM/KAVP. THEREAFTER...THE
STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT OUR AREA TO THE EAST.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WE`VE
INSERTED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDER AT THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY (KRME/KSYR/KITH/KELM).

LATER TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. WE`VE GONE WITH
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AT KELM...AND EITHER IFR OR LOW-END MVFR AT
KITH/KBGM/KAVP.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 14-15Z...WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-8 KNOTS FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GOING BACK TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBGM 041056
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
656 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE RAIN
WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN MAINLY DRY
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 630 AM... QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF BRADFORD COUNTY
PA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHTER RAIN FARTHER EAST AND NORTH.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN IS ALONG A LINE FROM BATH TO
CORTLAND TO NEAR UTICA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS
GOTTEN ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS ITS GOING TO GET... MEANING THAT IT
WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH SYRACUSE OR ROME. HOWEVER A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
ARE ALREADY POPPING UP NORTH OF THE STEADY RAIN AND MAY HIT THOSE
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY
RAIN WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST... WITH STEADY RAIN ENDING AT
ELMIRA BY AROUND 9 AM... BINGHAMTON BY 11 AM... AND SCRANTON BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN IN NORTHERN PA... WITH MUCH LESS JUST
TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHERN NY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH
IS BEING ENHANCED BY LIFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850
MB AND A PLUME OF PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES EXTENDING NORTHWARD
ACROSS PA. THE RESULT IS AN AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS PA INTO
SOUTHERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL FROM THE NY/PA
BORDER SOUTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHTER RAIN GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY GETTING NORTH OF
A DANSVILLE TO CORTLAND LINE... AND THIS MAY INDICATE THAT ONLY A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE SYRACUSE/ROME/UTICA
AREAS LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOAKING
FOR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING WITH RADAR ESTIMATES ALREADY
INDICATING OVER HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA AS OF 430
AM.

THE AREA OF STEADIER RAIN WILL PASS EAST OF OUR COUNTIES BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH
AS SOME CLEARING DESTABILIZES THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FINGER LAKES THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
THEY TRY TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS EARLY THIS EVENING.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
MOIST GROUND... THEN SUNSHINE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z SAT UPDATE... SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS AT KELM/KBGM/KAVP. THEREAFTER...THE
STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT OUR AREA TO THE EAST.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WE`VE
INSERTED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDER AT THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY (KRME/KSYR/KITH/KELM).

LATER TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. WE`VE GONE WITH
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AT KELM...AND EITHER IFR OR LOW-END MVFR AT
KITH/KBGM/KAVP.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 14-15Z...WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-8 KNOTS FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GOING BACK TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...MLJ





000
FXUS61 KBGM 041056
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
656 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE RAIN
WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN MAINLY DRY
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 630 AM... QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF BRADFORD COUNTY
PA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHTER RAIN FARTHER EAST AND NORTH.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN IS ALONG A LINE FROM BATH TO
CORTLAND TO NEAR UTICA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS
GOTTEN ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS ITS GOING TO GET... MEANING THAT IT
WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH SYRACUSE OR ROME. HOWEVER A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
ARE ALREADY POPPING UP NORTH OF THE STEADY RAIN AND MAY HIT THOSE
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY
RAIN WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST... WITH STEADY RAIN ENDING AT
ELMIRA BY AROUND 9 AM... BINGHAMTON BY 11 AM... AND SCRANTON BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN IN NORTHERN PA... WITH MUCH LESS JUST
TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHERN NY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH
IS BEING ENHANCED BY LIFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850
MB AND A PLUME OF PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES EXTENDING NORTHWARD
ACROSS PA. THE RESULT IS AN AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS PA INTO
SOUTHERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL FROM THE NY/PA
BORDER SOUTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHTER RAIN GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY GETTING NORTH OF
A DANSVILLE TO CORTLAND LINE... AND THIS MAY INDICATE THAT ONLY A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE SYRACUSE/ROME/UTICA
AREAS LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOAKING
FOR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING WITH RADAR ESTIMATES ALREADY
INDICATING OVER HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA AS OF 430
AM.

THE AREA OF STEADIER RAIN WILL PASS EAST OF OUR COUNTIES BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH
AS SOME CLEARING DESTABILIZES THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FINGER LAKES THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
THEY TRY TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS EARLY THIS EVENING.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
MOIST GROUND... THEN SUNSHINE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z SAT UPDATE... SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS AT KELM/KBGM/KAVP. THEREAFTER...THE
STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT OUR AREA TO THE EAST.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WE`VE
INSERTED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDER AT THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY (KRME/KSYR/KITH/KELM).

LATER TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. WE`VE GONE WITH
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AT KELM...AND EITHER IFR OR LOW-END MVFR AT
KITH/KBGM/KAVP.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 14-15Z...WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-8 KNOTS FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GOING BACK TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBGM 041056
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
656 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE RAIN
WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN MAINLY DRY
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 630 AM... QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF BRADFORD COUNTY
PA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHTER RAIN FARTHER EAST AND NORTH.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN IS ALONG A LINE FROM BATH TO
CORTLAND TO NEAR UTICA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS
GOTTEN ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS ITS GOING TO GET... MEANING THAT IT
WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH SYRACUSE OR ROME. HOWEVER A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
ARE ALREADY POPPING UP NORTH OF THE STEADY RAIN AND MAY HIT THOSE
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY
RAIN WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST... WITH STEADY RAIN ENDING AT
ELMIRA BY AROUND 9 AM... BINGHAMTON BY 11 AM... AND SCRANTON BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN IN NORTHERN PA... WITH MUCH LESS JUST
TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHERN NY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH
IS BEING ENHANCED BY LIFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850
MB AND A PLUME OF PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES EXTENDING NORTHWARD
ACROSS PA. THE RESULT IS AN AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS PA INTO
SOUTHERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL FROM THE NY/PA
BORDER SOUTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHTER RAIN GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY GETTING NORTH OF
A DANSVILLE TO CORTLAND LINE... AND THIS MAY INDICATE THAT ONLY A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE SYRACUSE/ROME/UTICA
AREAS LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOAKING
FOR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING WITH RADAR ESTIMATES ALREADY
INDICATING OVER HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA AS OF 430
AM.

THE AREA OF STEADIER RAIN WILL PASS EAST OF OUR COUNTIES BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH
AS SOME CLEARING DESTABILIZES THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FINGER LAKES THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
THEY TRY TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS EARLY THIS EVENING.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
MOIST GROUND... THEN SUNSHINE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z SAT UPDATE... SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS AT KELM/KBGM/KAVP. THEREAFTER...THE
STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT OUR AREA TO THE EAST.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WE`VE
INSERTED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDER AT THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY (KRME/KSYR/KITH/KELM).

LATER TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. WE`VE GONE WITH
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AT KELM...AND EITHER IFR OR LOW-END MVFR AT
KITH/KBGM/KAVP.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 14-15Z...WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-8 KNOTS FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GOING BACK TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...MLJ





000
FXUS61 KBGM 041039
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
639 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE RAIN
WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN MAINLY DRY
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 630 AM... QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF BRADFORD COUNTY
PA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHTER RAIN FARTHER EAST AND NORTH.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN IS ALONG A LINE FROM BATH TO
CORTLAND TO NEAR UTICA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS
GOTTEN ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS ITS GOING TO GET... MEANING THAT IT
WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH SYRACUSE OR ROME. HOWEVER A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
ARE ALREADY POPING UP NORTH OF THE STEADY RAIN AND MAY HIT THOSE
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY
RAIN WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST... WITH STEADY RAIN ENDING AT
ELMIRA BY AROUND 9 AM... BINGHAMTON BY 11 AM... AND SCRANTON BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN IN NORTHERN PA... WITH MUCH LESS JUST
TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHERN NY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH
IS BEING ENHANCED BY LIFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850
MB AND A PLUME OF PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES EXTENDING NORTHWARD
ACROSS PA. THE RESULT IS AN AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS PA INTO
SOUTHERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL FROM THE NY/PA
BORDER SOUTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHTER RAIN GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY GETTING NORTH OF
A DANSVILLE TO CORTLAND LINE... AND THIS MAY INDICATE THAT ONLY A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE SYRACUSE/ROME/UTICA
AREAS LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOAKING
FOR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING WITH RADAR ESTIMATES ALREADY
INDICATING OVER HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA AS OF 430
AM.

THE AREA OF STEADIER RAIN WILL PASS EAST OF OUR COUNTIES BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH
AS SOME CLEARING DESTABILIZES THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FINGER LAKES THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
THEY TRY TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS EARLY THIS EVENING.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
MOIST GROUND... THEN SUNSHINE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SAT UPDATE... INCOMING AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY MVFR
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING. KBGM AND KITH...ON THE HILLTOPS...MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME IFR CEILINGS JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS STEADIER SHOWERS EXIT THE
REGION...WE SHOULD GO BACK TO PREVAILING VFR.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE...SMALL AREAL COVERAGE/PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE
PRECLUDE THEIR MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

LATER TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. SINCE...FOR THE
MOST PART...RESTRICTIONS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR OR AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY...THEY WERE ALSO NOT INCLUDED JUST YET.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 14-15Z...WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-8 KNOTS FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GOING BACK TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...MLJ





000
FXUS61 KBGM 041039
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
639 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE RAIN
WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN MAINLY DRY
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 630 AM... QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF BRADFORD COUNTY
PA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHTER RAIN FARTHER EAST AND NORTH.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN IS ALONG A LINE FROM BATH TO
CORTLAND TO NEAR UTICA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS
GOTTEN ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS ITS GOING TO GET... MEANING THAT IT
WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH SYRACUSE OR ROME. HOWEVER A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
ARE ALREADY POPING UP NORTH OF THE STEADY RAIN AND MAY HIT THOSE
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY
RAIN WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST... WITH STEADY RAIN ENDING AT
ELMIRA BY AROUND 9 AM... BINGHAMTON BY 11 AM... AND SCRANTON BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN IN NORTHERN PA... WITH MUCH LESS JUST
TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHERN NY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH
IS BEING ENHANCED BY LIFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850
MB AND A PLUME OF PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES EXTENDING NORTHWARD
ACROSS PA. THE RESULT IS AN AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS PA INTO
SOUTHERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL FROM THE NY/PA
BORDER SOUTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHTER RAIN GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY GETTING NORTH OF
A DANSVILLE TO CORTLAND LINE... AND THIS MAY INDICATE THAT ONLY A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE SYRACUSE/ROME/UTICA
AREAS LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOAKING
FOR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING WITH RADAR ESTIMATES ALREADY
INDICATING OVER HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA AS OF 430
AM.

THE AREA OF STEADIER RAIN WILL PASS EAST OF OUR COUNTIES BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH
AS SOME CLEARING DESTABILIZES THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FINGER LAKES THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
THEY TRY TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS EARLY THIS EVENING.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
MOIST GROUND... THEN SUNSHINE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SAT UPDATE... INCOMING AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY MVFR
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING. KBGM AND KITH...ON THE HILLTOPS...MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME IFR CEILINGS JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS STEADIER SHOWERS EXIT THE
REGION...WE SHOULD GO BACK TO PREVAILING VFR.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE...SMALL AREAL COVERAGE/PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE
PRECLUDE THEIR MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

LATER TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. SINCE...FOR THE
MOST PART...RESTRICTIONS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR OR AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY...THEY WERE ALSO NOT INCLUDED JUST YET.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 14-15Z...WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-8 KNOTS FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GOING BACK TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...MLJ





000
FXUS61 KBGM 041039
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
639 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE RAIN
WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN MAINLY DRY
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 630 AM... QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF BRADFORD COUNTY
PA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHTER RAIN FARTHER EAST AND NORTH.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN IS ALONG A LINE FROM BATH TO
CORTLAND TO NEAR UTICA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS
GOTTEN ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS ITS GOING TO GET... MEANING THAT IT
WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH SYRACUSE OR ROME. HOWEVER A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
ARE ALREADY POPING UP NORTH OF THE STEADY RAIN AND MAY HIT THOSE
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY
RAIN WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST... WITH STEADY RAIN ENDING AT
ELMIRA BY AROUND 9 AM... BINGHAMTON BY 11 AM... AND SCRANTON BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN IN NORTHERN PA... WITH MUCH LESS JUST
TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHERN NY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH
IS BEING ENHANCED BY LIFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850
MB AND A PLUME OF PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES EXTENDING NORTHWARD
ACROSS PA. THE RESULT IS AN AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS PA INTO
SOUTHERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL FROM THE NY/PA
BORDER SOUTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHTER RAIN GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY GETTING NORTH OF
A DANSVILLE TO CORTLAND LINE... AND THIS MAY INDICATE THAT ONLY A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE SYRACUSE/ROME/UTICA
AREAS LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOAKING
FOR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING WITH RADAR ESTIMATES ALREADY
INDICATING OVER HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA AS OF 430
AM.

THE AREA OF STEADIER RAIN WILL PASS EAST OF OUR COUNTIES BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH
AS SOME CLEARING DESTABILIZES THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FINGER LAKES THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
THEY TRY TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS EARLY THIS EVENING.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
MOIST GROUND... THEN SUNSHINE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SAT UPDATE... INCOMING AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY MVFR
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING. KBGM AND KITH...ON THE HILLTOPS...MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME IFR CEILINGS JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS STEADIER SHOWERS EXIT THE
REGION...WE SHOULD GO BACK TO PREVAILING VFR.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE...SMALL AREAL COVERAGE/PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE
PRECLUDE THEIR MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

LATER TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. SINCE...FOR THE
MOST PART...RESTRICTIONS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR OR AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY...THEY WERE ALSO NOT INCLUDED JUST YET.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 14-15Z...WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-8 KNOTS FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GOING BACK TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBGM 041039
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
639 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE RAIN
WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN MAINLY DRY
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 630 AM... QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF BRADFORD COUNTY
PA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHTER RAIN FARTHER EAST AND NORTH.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN IS ALONG A LINE FROM BATH TO
CORTLAND TO NEAR UTICA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS
GOTTEN ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS ITS GOING TO GET... MEANING THAT IT
WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH SYRACUSE OR ROME. HOWEVER A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
ARE ALREADY POPING UP NORTH OF THE STEADY RAIN AND MAY HIT THOSE
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY
RAIN WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST... WITH STEADY RAIN ENDING AT
ELMIRA BY AROUND 9 AM... BINGHAMTON BY 11 AM... AND SCRANTON BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN IN NORTHERN PA... WITH MUCH LESS JUST
TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHERN NY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH
IS BEING ENHANCED BY LIFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850
MB AND A PLUME OF PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES EXTENDING NORTHWARD
ACROSS PA. THE RESULT IS AN AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS PA INTO
SOUTHERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL FROM THE NY/PA
BORDER SOUTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHTER RAIN GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY GETTING NORTH OF
A DANSVILLE TO CORTLAND LINE... AND THIS MAY INDICATE THAT ONLY A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE SYRACUSE/ROME/UTICA
AREAS LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOAKING
FOR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING WITH RADAR ESTIMATES ALREADY
INDICATING OVER HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA AS OF 430
AM.

THE AREA OF STEADIER RAIN WILL PASS EAST OF OUR COUNTIES BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH
AS SOME CLEARING DESTABILIZES THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FINGER LAKES THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
THEY TRY TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS EARLY THIS EVENING.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
MOIST GROUND... THEN SUNSHINE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SAT UPDATE... INCOMING AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY MVFR
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING. KBGM AND KITH...ON THE HILLTOPS...MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME IFR CEILINGS JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS STEADIER SHOWERS EXIT THE
REGION...WE SHOULD GO BACK TO PREVAILING VFR.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE...SMALL AREAL COVERAGE/PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE
PRECLUDE THEIR MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

LATER TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. SINCE...FOR THE
MOST PART...RESTRICTIONS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR OR AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY...THEY WERE ALSO NOT INCLUDED JUST YET.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 14-15Z...WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-8 KNOTS FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GOING BACK TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBGM 040842
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
442 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE RAIN
WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN MAINLY DRY
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH
IS BEING ENHANCED BY LIFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850
MB AND A PLUME OF PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES EXTENDING NORTHWARD
ACROSS PA. THE RESULT IS AN AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS PA INTO
SOUTHERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL FROM THE NY/PA
BORDER SOUTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHTER RAIN GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY GETTING NORTH OF
A DANSVILLE TO CORTLAND LINE... AND THIS MAY INDICATE THAT ONLY A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE SYRACUSE/ROME/UTICA
AREAS LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOAKING
FOR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING WITH RADAR ESTIMATES ALREADY
INDICATING OVER HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA AS OF 430
AM.

THE AREA OF STEADIER RAIN WILL PASS EAST OF OUR COUNTIES BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH
AS SOME CLEARING DESTABILIZES THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FINGER LAKES THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
THEY TRY TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS EARLY THIS EVENING.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
MOIST GROUND... THEN SUNSHINE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SAT UPDATE... INCOMING AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY MVFR
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING. KBGM AND KITH...ON THE HILLTOPS...MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME IFR CEILINGS JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS STEADIER SHOWERS EXIT THE
REGION...WE SHOULD GO BACK TO PREVAILING VFR.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE...SMALL AREAL COVERAGE/PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE
PRECLUDE THEIR MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

LATER TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. SINCE...FOR THE
MOST PART...RESTRICTIONS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR OR AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY...THEY WERE ALSO NOT INCLUDED JUST YET.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 14-15Z...WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-8 KNOTS FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GOING BACK TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...MLJ





000
FXUS61 KBGM 040732
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
332 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD CLEAR ON THE PRECIPITATION IN TIME FOR
MOST FIREWORKS SHOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS FAIR UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED AT 1245 PM... LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WELL-DEFINED UPPER WAVE IS PROGRESSING NORTHEAST ACROSS PA AND
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THIS MORNING.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO HIGH LIKELY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RAIN WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION
RUNS STILL INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA
BY MID-AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER UNTIL EARLY EVENING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


840 PM UPDATE...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE CLOSEST SHOWERS OVER SW
PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN
MOVING INTO NE PA/SRN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SRN
TIER AND NE PA AS A WEAK MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND SHORT WAVES
DRIVE THE ACTIVITY. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST BUMPED UP
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS INCREASING CLOUDS/DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PREVIOUS DISC...
MODELS CONT TO STRUGGLE WITH WHAT IS A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM MVG FROM
THE OH VLY TO THE DELMARVA. OVRNGT RUNS PUSHED THE PCPN NWRD AND
INCREASED THE INTENSITY...WHILE THE 12Z MODELS HAVE GENERALLY
BACKED OFF...XCPT THE GFS WHICH MAY BE SUFFERING SOME CONV
FEEDBACK GNERATING HEAVIER PCPN AHD OF A WV STREAKING NEWRD.
ALSO...TIMING HAS SLOWED AND NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST CHANCE
FOR ANY LGT PCPN WILL BE AFT MIDN IN THE XTRM SOUTH AD WEST.

FOR THIS GRID UPDATE HAVE LWRD POPS TO CHANCE ALL AREAS...KEEPING
HIGH CHANCE TO THE SOUTH NEARER THE UPR SUPPORT. HAVE INCLUDED
ISLTD TRWS OVER THE FINGER LAKES IN LINE WITH THE NAM THAT SHOWS A
BIT MORE INSTABILITY OVER WRN NY MVG EWRD INTO THE AREA IN THE
AFTN BEFORE WEAKENING.

TEMPS REMAIN BLO NRML SAT AFTN WITH THE CLDS AND SCT SHWRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN RUNNING VERY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS...THIS AFTERNOON THEY HAVE JUMPED BACK TO A DRIER
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH
THE 12Z RUNS NOW ALL SHOWING THE PRECIP CHCS DWINDLE FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING...MEANING MUCH BETTER
FIREWORKS VIEWING IS LIKELY FOR THE EVENING OF THE FOURTH. TROUGH
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE RIDGING IN CONTROL...TEMPS WILL REBOUND
ABOVE NORMAL PUSHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SAT UPDATE... INCOMING AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY MVFR
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING. KBGM AND KITH...ON THE HILLTOPS...MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME IFR CEILINGS JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS STEADIER SHOWERS EXIT THE
REGION...WE SHOULD GO BACK TO PREVAILING VFR.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE...SMALL AREAL COVERAGE/PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE
PRECLUDE THEIR MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

LATER TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. SINCE...FOR THE
MOST PART...RESTRICTIONS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR OR AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY...THEY WERE ALSO NOT INCLUDED JUST YET.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 14-15Z...WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-8 KNOTS FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GOING BACK TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBGM 040732
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
332 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD CLEAR ON THE PRECIPITATION IN TIME FOR
MOST FIREWORKS SHOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS FAIR UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED AT 1245 PM... LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WELL-DEFINED UPPER WAVE IS PROGRESSING NORTHEAST ACROSS PA AND
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THIS MORNING.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO HIGH LIKELY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RAIN WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION
RUNS STILL INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA
BY MID-AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER UNTIL EARLY EVENING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


840 PM UPDATE...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE CLOSEST SHOWERS OVER SW
PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN
MOVING INTO NE PA/SRN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SRN
TIER AND NE PA AS A WEAK MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND SHORT WAVES
DRIVE THE ACTIVITY. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST BUMPED UP
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS INCREASING CLOUDS/DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PREVIOUS DISC...
MODELS CONT TO STRUGGLE WITH WHAT IS A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM MVG FROM
THE OH VLY TO THE DELMARVA. OVRNGT RUNS PUSHED THE PCPN NWRD AND
INCREASED THE INTENSITY...WHILE THE 12Z MODELS HAVE GENERALLY
BACKED OFF...XCPT THE GFS WHICH MAY BE SUFFERING SOME CONV
FEEDBACK GNERATING HEAVIER PCPN AHD OF A WV STREAKING NEWRD.
ALSO...TIMING HAS SLOWED AND NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST CHANCE
FOR ANY LGT PCPN WILL BE AFT MIDN IN THE XTRM SOUTH AD WEST.

FOR THIS GRID UPDATE HAVE LWRD POPS TO CHANCE ALL AREAS...KEEPING
HIGH CHANCE TO THE SOUTH NEARER THE UPR SUPPORT. HAVE INCLUDED
ISLTD TRWS OVER THE FINGER LAKES IN LINE WITH THE NAM THAT SHOWS A
BIT MORE INSTABILITY OVER WRN NY MVG EWRD INTO THE AREA IN THE
AFTN BEFORE WEAKENING.

TEMPS REMAIN BLO NRML SAT AFTN WITH THE CLDS AND SCT SHWRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN RUNNING VERY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS...THIS AFTERNOON THEY HAVE JUMPED BACK TO A DRIER
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH
THE 12Z RUNS NOW ALL SHOWING THE PRECIP CHCS DWINDLE FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING...MEANING MUCH BETTER
FIREWORKS VIEWING IS LIKELY FOR THE EVENING OF THE FOURTH. TROUGH
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE RIDGING IN CONTROL...TEMPS WILL REBOUND
ABOVE NORMAL PUSHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SAT UPDATE... INCOMING AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY MVFR
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING. KBGM AND KITH...ON THE HILLTOPS...MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME IFR CEILINGS JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS STEADIER SHOWERS EXIT THE
REGION...WE SHOULD GO BACK TO PREVAILING VFR.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE...SMALL AREAL COVERAGE/PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE
PRECLUDE THEIR MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

LATER TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. SINCE...FOR THE
MOST PART...RESTRICTIONS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR OR AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY...THEY WERE ALSO NOT INCLUDED JUST YET.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 14-15Z...WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-8 KNOTS FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GOING BACK TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...MLJ





000
FXUS61 KBGM 040455
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1255 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD CLEAR ON THE PRECIPITATION IN TIME FOR
MOST FIREWORKS SHOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS FAIR UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED AT 1245 PM... LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WELL-DEFINED UPPER WAVE IS PROGRESSING NORTHEAST ACROSS PA AND
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THIS MORNING.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO HIGH LIKELY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RAIN WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION
RUNS STILL INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA
BY MID-AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER UNTIL EARLY EVENING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


840 PM UPDATE...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE CLOSEST SHOWERS OVER SW
PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN
MOVING INTO NE PA/SRN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SRN
TIER AND NE PA AS A WEAK MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND SHORT WAVES
DRIVE THE ACTIVITY. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST BUMPED UP
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS INCREASING CLOUDS/DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PREVIOUS DISC...
MODELS CONT TO STRUGGLE WITH WHAT IS A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM MVG FROM
THE OH VLY TO THE DELMARVA. OVRNGT RUNS PUSHED THE PCPN NWRD AND
INCREASED THE INTENSITY...WHILE THE 12Z MODELS HAVE GENERALLY
BACKED OFF...XCPT THE GFS WHICH MAY BE SUFFERING SOME CONV
FEEDBACK GNERATING HEAVIER PCPN AHD OF A WV STREAKING NEWRD.
ALSO...TIMING HAS SLOWED AND NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST CHANCE
FOR ANY LGT PCPN WILL BE AFT MIDN IN THE XTRM SOUTH AD WEST.

FOR THIS GRID UPDATE HAVE LWRD POPS TO CHANCE ALL AREAS...KEEPING
HIGH CHANCE TO THE SOUTH NEARER THE UPR SUPPORT. HAVE INCLUDED
ISLTD TRWS OVER THE FINGER LAKES IN LINE WITH THE NAM THAT SHOWS A
BIT MORE INSTABILITY OVER WRN NY MVG EWRD INTO THE AREA IN THE
AFTN BEFORE WEAKENING.

TEMPS REMAIN BLO NRML SAT AFTN WITH THE CLDS AND SCT SHWRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN RUNNING VERY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS...THIS AFTERNOON THEY HAVE JUMPED BACK TO A DRIER
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH
THE 12Z RUNS NOW ALL SHOWING THE PRECIP CHCS DWINDLE FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING...MEANING MUCH BETTER
FIREWORKS VIEWING IS LIKELY FOR THE EVENING OF THE FOURTH. TROUGH
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE RIDGING IN CONTROL...TEMPS WILL REBOUND
ABOVE NORMAL PUSHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EVENING STARTING TO
DETERIORATE INTO MFVR CIGS AS A TROUGH CURRENT OVER PA MOVES INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. KAVP WILL SEE MFVR CIGS
FIRST AS IT PASSES THROUGH 05-09Z FOLLOWED BY KBGM AT 07Z THEN
KELM AT 12Z WITH VIS STAYING VFR WITH LIGHT RAINSHOWERS. CIGS AND
VIS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR KITH/KSYR/KRME AS THE FEATURE PUSHES
THROUGH 08-13Z WITH LIGHT RAINSHOWERS...THE ADDED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP DEVELOP SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AS THEY MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS
AFT 16Z. THE SHOWERS WILL DIE OFF FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
KSYR/KITH/KELM/KBGM HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCE OF CONTINUED
SHOWERS AFTER SUNSET.

WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LOW...LESS THAN
10KTS...SHIFTING FROM A S-SE TO W-SW DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON
TO EVENING TIMEFRAME.



.OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...SHOWERS WILL TAPPER OFF LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING POTENTIAL PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH AREAS
OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.

SUN THRU EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

TUE LATE INTO WED...MVFR AND ISLTD IFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN
SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...DGM/RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 040455
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1255 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD CLEAR ON THE PRECIPITATION IN TIME FOR
MOST FIREWORKS SHOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS FAIR UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED AT 1245 PM... LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WELL-DEFINED UPPER WAVE IS PROGRESSING NORTHEAST ACROSS PA AND
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THIS MORNING.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO HIGH LIKELY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RAIN WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION
RUNS STILL INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA
BY MID-AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER UNTIL EARLY EVENING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


840 PM UPDATE...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE CLOSEST SHOWERS OVER SW
PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN
MOVING INTO NE PA/SRN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SRN
TIER AND NE PA AS A WEAK MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND SHORT WAVES
DRIVE THE ACTIVITY. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST BUMPED UP
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS INCREASING CLOUDS/DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PREVIOUS DISC...
MODELS CONT TO STRUGGLE WITH WHAT IS A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM MVG FROM
THE OH VLY TO THE DELMARVA. OVRNGT RUNS PUSHED THE PCPN NWRD AND
INCREASED THE INTENSITY...WHILE THE 12Z MODELS HAVE GENERALLY
BACKED OFF...XCPT THE GFS WHICH MAY BE SUFFERING SOME CONV
FEEDBACK GNERATING HEAVIER PCPN AHD OF A WV STREAKING NEWRD.
ALSO...TIMING HAS SLOWED AND NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST CHANCE
FOR ANY LGT PCPN WILL BE AFT MIDN IN THE XTRM SOUTH AD WEST.

FOR THIS GRID UPDATE HAVE LWRD POPS TO CHANCE ALL AREAS...KEEPING
HIGH CHANCE TO THE SOUTH NEARER THE UPR SUPPORT. HAVE INCLUDED
ISLTD TRWS OVER THE FINGER LAKES IN LINE WITH THE NAM THAT SHOWS A
BIT MORE INSTABILITY OVER WRN NY MVG EWRD INTO THE AREA IN THE
AFTN BEFORE WEAKENING.

TEMPS REMAIN BLO NRML SAT AFTN WITH THE CLDS AND SCT SHWRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN RUNNING VERY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS...THIS AFTERNOON THEY HAVE JUMPED BACK TO A DRIER
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH
THE 12Z RUNS NOW ALL SHOWING THE PRECIP CHCS DWINDLE FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING...MEANING MUCH BETTER
FIREWORKS VIEWING IS LIKELY FOR THE EVENING OF THE FOURTH. TROUGH
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE RIDGING IN CONTROL...TEMPS WILL REBOUND
ABOVE NORMAL PUSHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EVENING STARTING TO
DETERIORATE INTO MFVR CIGS AS A TROUGH CURRENT OVER PA MOVES INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. KAVP WILL SEE MFVR CIGS
FIRST AS IT PASSES THROUGH 05-09Z FOLLOWED BY KBGM AT 07Z THEN
KELM AT 12Z WITH VIS STAYING VFR WITH LIGHT RAINSHOWERS. CIGS AND
VIS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR KITH/KSYR/KRME AS THE FEATURE PUSHES
THROUGH 08-13Z WITH LIGHT RAINSHOWERS...THE ADDED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP DEVELOP SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AS THEY MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS
AFT 16Z. THE SHOWERS WILL DIE OFF FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
KSYR/KITH/KELM/KBGM HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCE OF CONTINUED
SHOWERS AFTER SUNSET.

WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LOW...LESS THAN
10KTS...SHIFTING FROM A S-SE TO W-SW DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON
TO EVENING TIMEFRAME.



.OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...SHOWERS WILL TAPPER OFF LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING POTENTIAL PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH AREAS
OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.

SUN THRU EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

TUE LATE INTO WED...MVFR AND ISLTD IFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN
SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...DGM/RRM




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