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000
FXUS61 KBGM 230026
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
826 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS, COOL AIR AND PERIODS OF RAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
820 PM UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS IN THE NEAR TERM AS WV IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS A
BETTER SLUG OF MOISTURE WORKING INLAND THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY
TOWARD OUR EASTERN FA.

LIKELY POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE FAR EASTERN FA. POPS
LOWER TO CHANCE AS ONE APPROACHES THE I-81 CORRIDOR.

MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPERATURES AS THE CENTRAL SO TIER HAS COOLED
BELOW PLAN.


1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM WL PINWHEEL ARND CAPE COD TOMORROW CONTG TO THROW RAIN
BACK TWD THE AREA IN STRONG ERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY WV THAT PASSES THRU THE AREA WL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN DRG THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HV CONTD WITH LKLY-CATEGORICAL
POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH JUST SCTD POPS RMNDR OF THE AREA. DOWNGLIDE
ON 295K LYR LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT FOR FINGER LKS REGION AFT 18Z
TOMORROW. TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GO ANYWHERE TOMORROW AND HV
GONE WITH A GMOS/MET NUMBER COMPROMISE, GNRLY HIGHS U40S/NR 50.

UPR LOW WL BEGIN TO FEEL A KICKER MV IN LATE TOMORROW NGT TO BEGIN
LESSENING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI MRNG SHOWERS WL QUICKLY DWINDLE THUR NGT FM SW TO NE.

HIPRES WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN DRG THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY BUT COASTAL
LOW WL STILL HV ENUF OF AN IMPACT TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. THUS HV GONE MUCH LWR THAN GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTING
HIGHS TO MAKE MUCH OF A RUN AT 60F EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. THINK THAT MAXES WL GNRLY TOP OUT IN THE
M50S ON FRIDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW DOES NOT EASE UNTIL LATE FRI NGT WITH A WEST WIND
SETTING IN BY 06Z. EXPECT FRI NGT TO BE PCPN-FREE AS WE WL BE
BRIEFLY UNDER RIDGE AXIS. AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL SWING THRU SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAVE RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. IN GENERAL CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MVFR AT
KRME/KSYR WITH LOW MVFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
(KITH/KELM/KAVP) WITH IFR AT KBGM. AT KITH, CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY
BE IFR BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. AS AREA OF SHOWERS IS ALSO PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING AND THIS WILL OCCASIONALLY CAUSE
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY, CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KELM/KAVP.

N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY AT 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 230026
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
826 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS, COOL AIR AND PERIODS OF RAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
820 PM UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS IN THE NEAR TERM AS WV IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS A
BETTER SLUG OF MOISTURE WORKING INLAND THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY
TOWARD OUR EASTERN FA.

LIKELY POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE FAR EASTERN FA. POPS
LOWER TO CHANCE AS ONE APPROACHES THE I-81 CORRIDOR.

MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPERATURES AS THE CENTRAL SO TIER HAS COOLED
BELOW PLAN.


1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM WL PINWHEEL ARND CAPE COD TOMORROW CONTG TO THROW RAIN
BACK TWD THE AREA IN STRONG ERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY WV THAT PASSES THRU THE AREA WL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN DRG THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HV CONTD WITH LKLY-CATEGORICAL
POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH JUST SCTD POPS RMNDR OF THE AREA. DOWNGLIDE
ON 295K LYR LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT FOR FINGER LKS REGION AFT 18Z
TOMORROW. TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GO ANYWHERE TOMORROW AND HV
GONE WITH A GMOS/MET NUMBER COMPROMISE, GNRLY HIGHS U40S/NR 50.

UPR LOW WL BEGIN TO FEEL A KICKER MV IN LATE TOMORROW NGT TO BEGIN
LESSENING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI MRNG SHOWERS WL QUICKLY DWINDLE THUR NGT FM SW TO NE.

HIPRES WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN DRG THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY BUT COASTAL
LOW WL STILL HV ENUF OF AN IMPACT TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. THUS HV GONE MUCH LWR THAN GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTING
HIGHS TO MAKE MUCH OF A RUN AT 60F EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. THINK THAT MAXES WL GNRLY TOP OUT IN THE
M50S ON FRIDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW DOES NOT EASE UNTIL LATE FRI NGT WITH A WEST WIND
SETTING IN BY 06Z. EXPECT FRI NGT TO BE PCPN-FREE AS WE WL BE
BRIEFLY UNDER RIDGE AXIS. AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL SWING THRU SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAVE RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. IN GENERAL CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MVFR AT
KRME/KSYR WITH LOW MVFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
(KITH/KELM/KAVP) WITH IFR AT KBGM. AT KITH, CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY
BE IFR BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. AS AREA OF SHOWERS IS ALSO PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING AND THIS WILL OCCASIONALLY CAUSE
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY, CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KELM/KAVP.

N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY AT 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 222357
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
757 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS, COOL AIR AND PERIODS OF RAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM WL PINWHEEL ARND CAPE COD TOMORROW CONTG TO THROW RAIN
BACK TWD THE AREA IN STRONG ERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY WV THAT PASSES THRU THE AREA WL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN DRG THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HV CONTD WITH LKLY-CATEGORICAL
POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH JUST SCTD POPS RMNDR OF THE AREA. DOWNGLIDE
ON 295K LYR LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT FOR FINGER LKS REGION AFT 18Z
TOMORROW. TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GO ANYWHERE TOMORROW AND HV
GONE WITH A GMOS/MET NUMBER COMPROMISE, GNRLY HIGHS U40S/NR 50.

UPR LOW WL BEGIN TO FEEL A KICKER MV IN LATE TOMORROW NGT TO BEGIN
LESSENING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI MRNG SHOWERS WL QUICKLY DWINDLE THUR NGT FM SW TO NE.

HIPRES WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN DRG THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY BUT COASTAL
LOW WL STILL HV ENUF OF AN IMPACT TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. THUS HV GONE MUCH LWR THAN GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTING
HIGHS TO MAKE MUCH OF A RUN AT 60F EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. THINK THAT MAXES WL GNRLY TOP OUT IN THE
M50S ON FRIDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW DOES NOT EASE UNTIL LATE FRI NGT WITH A WEST WIND
SETTING IN BY 06Z. EXPECT FRI NGT TO BE PCPN-FREE AS WE WL BE
BRIEFLY UNDER RIDGE AXIS. AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL SWING THRU SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAVE RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. IN GENERAL CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MVFR AT
KRME/KSYR WITH LOW MVFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
(KITH/KELM/KAVP) WITH IFR AT KBGM. AT KITH, CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY
BE IFR BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. AS AREA OF SHOWERS IS ALSO PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING AND THIS WILL OCCASIONALLY CAUSE
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY, CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KELM/KAVP.

N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY AT 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 222357
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
757 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS, COOL AIR AND PERIODS OF RAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM WL PINWHEEL ARND CAPE COD TOMORROW CONTG TO THROW RAIN
BACK TWD THE AREA IN STRONG ERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY WV THAT PASSES THRU THE AREA WL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN DRG THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HV CONTD WITH LKLY-CATEGORICAL
POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH JUST SCTD POPS RMNDR OF THE AREA. DOWNGLIDE
ON 295K LYR LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT FOR FINGER LKS REGION AFT 18Z
TOMORROW. TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GO ANYWHERE TOMORROW AND HV
GONE WITH A GMOS/MET NUMBER COMPROMISE, GNRLY HIGHS U40S/NR 50.

UPR LOW WL BEGIN TO FEEL A KICKER MV IN LATE TOMORROW NGT TO BEGIN
LESSENING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI MRNG SHOWERS WL QUICKLY DWINDLE THUR NGT FM SW TO NE.

HIPRES WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN DRG THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY BUT COASTAL
LOW WL STILL HV ENUF OF AN IMPACT TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. THUS HV GONE MUCH LWR THAN GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTING
HIGHS TO MAKE MUCH OF A RUN AT 60F EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. THINK THAT MAXES WL GNRLY TOP OUT IN THE
M50S ON FRIDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW DOES NOT EASE UNTIL LATE FRI NGT WITH A WEST WIND
SETTING IN BY 06Z. EXPECT FRI NGT TO BE PCPN-FREE AS WE WL BE
BRIEFLY UNDER RIDGE AXIS. AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL SWING THRU SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAVE RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. IN GENERAL CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MVFR AT
KRME/KSYR WITH LOW MVFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
(KITH/KELM/KAVP) WITH IFR AT KBGM. AT KITH, CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY
BE IFR BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. AS AREA OF SHOWERS IS ALSO PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING AND THIS WILL OCCASIONALLY CAUSE
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY, CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KELM/KAVP.

N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY AT 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 221850
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS, COOL AIR AND PERIODS OF RAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM WL PINWHEEL ARND CAPE COD TOMORROW CONTG TO THROW RAIN
BACK TWD THE AREA IN STRONG ERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY WV THAT PASSES THRU THE AREA WL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN DRG THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HV CONTD WITH LKLY-CATEGORICAL
POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH JUST SCTD POPS RMNDR OF THE AREA. DOWNGLIDE
ON 295K LYR LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT FOR FINGER LKS REGION AFT 18Z
TOMORROW. TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GO ANYWHERE TOMORROW AND HV
GONE WITH A GMOS/MET NUMBER COMPROMISE, GNRLY HIGHS U40S/NR 50.

UPR LOW WL BEGIN TO FEEL A KICKER MV IN LATE TOMORROW NGT TO BEGIN
LESSENING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI MRNG SHOWERS WL QUICKLY DWINDLE THUR NGT FM SW TO NE.

HIPRES WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN DRG THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY BUT COASTAL
LOW WL STILL HV ENUF OF AN IMPACT TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. THUS HV GONE MUCH LWR THAN GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTING
HIGHS TO MAKE MUCH OF A RUN AT 60F EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. THINK THAT MAXES WL GNRLY TOP OUT IN THE
M50S ON FRIDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW DOES NOT EASE UNTIL LATE FRI NGT WITH A WEST WIND
SETTING IN BY 06Z. EXPECT FRI NGT TO BE PCPN-FREE AS WE WL BE
BRIEFLY UNDER RIDGE AXIS. AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL SWING THRU SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAVE RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY. AS THIS DRIFTS TO THE EAST... RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO EITHER RISE TO MVFR OR VFR THIS AFTERNOON... THEN
AROUND 00Z TONIGHT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MVFR
OR BELOW. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT AT KELM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VISBYS MAY FALL TO
MVFR WITH THESE SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL START OFF AS NORTHERLY
AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REMAIN
AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH










000
FXUS61 KBGM 221832
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
232 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS, COOL AIR AND PERIODS OF RAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM WL PINWHEEL ARND CAPE COD TOMORROW CONTG TO THROW RAIN
BACK TWD THE AREA IN STRONG ERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY WV THAT PASSES THRU THE AREA WL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN DRG THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HV CONTD WITH LKLY-CATEGORICAL
POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH JUST SCTD POPS RMNDR OF THE AREA. DOWNGLIDE
ON 295K LYR LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT FOR FINGER LKS REGION AFT 18Z
TOMORROW. TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GO ANYWHERE TOMORROW AND HV
GONE WITH A GMOS/MET NUMBER COMPROMISE, GNRLY HIGHS U40S/NR 50.

UPR LOW WL BEGIN TO FEEL A KICKER MV IN LATE TOMORROW NGT TO BEGIN
LESSENING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI MRNG SHOWERS WL QUICKLY DWINDLE THUR NGT FM SW TO NE.

HIPRES WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN DRG THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY BUT COASTAL
LOW WL STILL HV ENUF OF AN IMPACT TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. THUS HV GONE MUCH LWR THAN GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTING
HIGHS TO MAKE MUCH OF A RUN AT 60F EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. THINK THAT MAXES WL GNRLY TOP OUT IN THE
M50S ON FRIDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW DOES NOT EASE UNTIL LATE FRI NGT WITH A WEST WIND
SETTING IN BY 06Z. EXPECT FRI NGT TO BE PCPN-FREE AS WE WL BE
BRIEFLY UNDER RIDGE AXIS. AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL SWING THRU SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY. AS THIS DRIFTS TO THE EAST... RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO EITHER RISE TO MVFR OR VFR THIS AFTERNOON... THEN
AROUND 00Z TONIGHT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MVFR
OR BELOW. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT AT KELM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VISBYS MAY FALL TO
MVFR WITH THESE SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL START OFF AS NORTHERLY
AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REMAIN
AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...KAH






000
FXUS61 KBGM 221759
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS...COOL AIR...AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
STRONG EASTERLY 850MB JET THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING A WAYS INTO OUR REGION. WE SHOULD THUS STILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CATSKILLS...SHIFTING TOWARDS
UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES WITH TIME. IN
REGARDS TO AREAL AVERAGE QPF...EXPECTING ANOTHER THIRD TO HALF
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY ALONE...TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES...EASTERLY 850MB JET BACKS WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...AND IN FACT EVEN NORTH- NORTHWEST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO TAKE MORE OF A CIRCUITOUS ROUTE AS
TIME MARCHES ON...WITH INCREASINGLY CONTINENTAL COMPONENT AT LOWER
LEVELS. SO WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL CONTINUE...ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD LESSEN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER DEGREE ECMWF START TO LET GO OF THE
AREA...BUT NAM IS SLOWER WITH EXIT OF UPPER LOW AND SO HAS
VORTICITY SPOKE PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME I HAVE ELECTED FOR 40-50 POPS ACROSS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR BUT
ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD.

DAMPNESS-CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE SUPPRESS DIURNAL RANGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY LOWER 40S BY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S THURSDAY /MAINLY 50S FRIDAY/.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS LONG SLOG OF AN EVENT...FROM TODAY
/WEDNESDAY/ THROUGH FRIDAY WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGES FROM SEVERAL
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER NY-WYOMING VALLEY
PA...TO BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OR SO IN WESTERN
CATSKILLS-NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR-ITHACA-CORTLAND-OWEGO-BINGHAMTON-
MONTROSE-HONESDALE-MILFORD. SPREAD OUT OVER SO MUCH TIME...WE DO
NOT AT ALL ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY. AS THIS DRIFTS TO THE EAST... RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO EITHER RISE TO MVFR OR VFR THIS AFTERNOON... THEN
AROUND 00Z TONIGHT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MVFR
OR BELOW. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT AT KELM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VISBYS MAY FALL TO
MVFR WITH THESE SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL START OFF AS NORTHERLY
AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REMAIN
AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...KAH









000
FXUS61 KBGM 221759
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS...COOL AIR...AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
STRONG EASTERLY 850MB JET THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING A WAYS INTO OUR REGION. WE SHOULD THUS STILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CATSKILLS...SHIFTING TOWARDS
UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES WITH TIME. IN
REGARDS TO AREAL AVERAGE QPF...EXPECTING ANOTHER THIRD TO HALF
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY ALONE...TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES...EASTERLY 850MB JET BACKS WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...AND IN FACT EVEN NORTH- NORTHWEST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO TAKE MORE OF A CIRCUITOUS ROUTE AS
TIME MARCHES ON...WITH INCREASINGLY CONTINENTAL COMPONENT AT LOWER
LEVELS. SO WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL CONTINUE...ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD LESSEN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER DEGREE ECMWF START TO LET GO OF THE
AREA...BUT NAM IS SLOWER WITH EXIT OF UPPER LOW AND SO HAS
VORTICITY SPOKE PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME I HAVE ELECTED FOR 40-50 POPS ACROSS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR BUT
ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD.

DAMPNESS-CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE SUPPRESS DIURNAL RANGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY LOWER 40S BY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S THURSDAY /MAINLY 50S FRIDAY/.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS LONG SLOG OF AN EVENT...FROM TODAY
/WEDNESDAY/ THROUGH FRIDAY WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGES FROM SEVERAL
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER NY-WYOMING VALLEY
PA...TO BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OR SO IN WESTERN
CATSKILLS-NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR-ITHACA-CORTLAND-OWEGO-BINGHAMTON-
MONTROSE-HONESDALE-MILFORD. SPREAD OUT OVER SO MUCH TIME...WE DO
NOT AT ALL ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY. AS THIS DRIFTS TO THE EAST... RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO EITHER RISE TO MVFR OR VFR THIS AFTERNOON... THEN
AROUND 00Z TONIGHT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MVFR
OR BELOW. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT AT KELM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VISBYS MAY FALL TO
MVFR WITH THESE SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL START OFF AS NORTHERLY
AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REMAIN
AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...KAH









000
FXUS61 KBGM 221701
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
101 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS...COOL AIR...AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
STRONG EASTERLY 850MB JET THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING A WAYS INTO OUR REGION. WE SHOULD THUS STILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CATSKILLS...SHIFTING TOWARDS
UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES WITH TIME. IN
REGARDS TO AREAL AVERAGE QPF...EXPECTING ANOTHER THIRD TO HALF
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY ALONE...TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES...EASTERLY 850MB JET BACKS WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...AND IN FACT EVEN NORTH- NORTHWEST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO TAKE MORE OF A CIRCUITOUS ROUTE AS
TIME MARCHES ON...WITH INCREASINGLY CONTINENTAL COMPONENT AT LOWER
LEVELS. SO WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL CONTINUE...ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD LESSEN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER DEGREE ECMWF START TO LET GO OF THE
AREA...BUT NAM IS SLOWER WITH EXIT OF UPPER LOW AND SO HAS
VORTICITY SPOKE PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME I HAVE ELECTED FOR 40-50 POPS ACROSS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR BUT
ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD.

DAMPNESS-CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE SUPPRESS DIURNAL RANGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY LOWER 40S BY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S THURSDAY /MAINLY 50S FRIDAY/.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS LONG SLOG OF AN EVENT...FROM TODAY
/WEDNESDAY/ THROUGH FRIDAY WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGES FROM SEVERAL
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER NY-WYOMING VALLEY
PA...TO BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OR SO IN WESTERN
CATSKILLS-NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR-ITHACA-CORTLAND-OWEGO-BINGHAMTON-
MONTROSE-HONESDALE-MILFORD. SPREAD OUT OVER SO MUCH TIME...WE DO
NOT AT ALL ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. OVERALL...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR XPCTD THRU THE FCST PD. AT
RME...SUGGESTIONS THAT BRIEF PDS OF VFR WILL BE PSBL DUE TO
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR AND DOWNSLOPING DUE TO NE WINDS. LATER
TDA XPCT IFR/MVFR TO BCM RE-ESTABLISHED. ELSEWHERE OVER CNTRL
NY...CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY BLO AT MINS THIS MRNG BEFORE POTNL
IMPRVMNT TO MVFR LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. AT AVP...MVFR XPCTD TO
PREVAIL. BEST CHC FOR -SHRA APPEARS TO BE AT BGM AND AVP EARLY
THIS MRNG...WITH -SHRA BECMG MORE WDPSRD BY EARLY EVENING AS
ENHANCED MSTR MVS IN FROM THE EAST. NNE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING
NRLY 10-15 KTS TDA AND NNW 10-20 KTS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 221701
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
101 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS...COOL AIR...AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
STRONG EASTERLY 850MB JET THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING A WAYS INTO OUR REGION. WE SHOULD THUS STILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CATSKILLS...SHIFTING TOWARDS
UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES WITH TIME. IN
REGARDS TO AREAL AVERAGE QPF...EXPECTING ANOTHER THIRD TO HALF
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY ALONE...TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES...EASTERLY 850MB JET BACKS WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...AND IN FACT EVEN NORTH- NORTHWEST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO TAKE MORE OF A CIRCUITOUS ROUTE AS
TIME MARCHES ON...WITH INCREASINGLY CONTINENTAL COMPONENT AT LOWER
LEVELS. SO WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL CONTINUE...ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD LESSEN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER DEGREE ECMWF START TO LET GO OF THE
AREA...BUT NAM IS SLOWER WITH EXIT OF UPPER LOW AND SO HAS
VORTICITY SPOKE PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME I HAVE ELECTED FOR 40-50 POPS ACROSS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR BUT
ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD.

DAMPNESS-CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE SUPPRESS DIURNAL RANGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY LOWER 40S BY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S THURSDAY /MAINLY 50S FRIDAY/.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS LONG SLOG OF AN EVENT...FROM TODAY
/WEDNESDAY/ THROUGH FRIDAY WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGES FROM SEVERAL
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER NY-WYOMING VALLEY
PA...TO BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OR SO IN WESTERN
CATSKILLS-NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR-ITHACA-CORTLAND-OWEGO-BINGHAMTON-
MONTROSE-HONESDALE-MILFORD. SPREAD OUT OVER SO MUCH TIME...WE DO
NOT AT ALL ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. OVERALL...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR XPCTD THRU THE FCST PD. AT
RME...SUGGESTIONS THAT BRIEF PDS OF VFR WILL BE PSBL DUE TO
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR AND DOWNSLOPING DUE TO NE WINDS. LATER
TDA XPCT IFR/MVFR TO BCM RE-ESTABLISHED. ELSEWHERE OVER CNTRL
NY...CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY BLO AT MINS THIS MRNG BEFORE POTNL
IMPRVMNT TO MVFR LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. AT AVP...MVFR XPCTD TO
PREVAIL. BEST CHC FOR -SHRA APPEARS TO BE AT BGM AND AVP EARLY
THIS MRNG...WITH -SHRA BECMG MORE WDPSRD BY EARLY EVENING AS
ENHANCED MSTR MVS IN FROM THE EAST. NNE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING
NRLY 10-15 KTS TDA AND NNW 10-20 KTS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 221420
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1020 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS...COOL AIR...AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
ONLY SPRINKLES AND PATCHY DRIZZLE RMN AT THIS TIME OVR SERN ZONES.
WL LKLY SEE CHCS DIMINISH INTO THE AFTN BUT NOT COMPLETELY NON-
EXISTENT SO HV KEPT JUST LOCHC POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE TWIN
TIERS. EXPECTING VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PCPN ACRS NRN
ZONES. ALL THIS CHGS TWD 00Z TONIGHT AS WV SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
GETS FLUNG UP INTO NEW ENGLAND AND RETROGRADES TWD FA OVRNGT. THUS
ALL GRIDS LOOK TO BE GOOD WITH LKLY POPS INCREASING THROUGHOUT
THE OVRNGT FM THE EAST.

AS FOR TDA, HV LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS TEMPS ARE VRY SLOW TO RISE.
CLDY AND DREARY CONDS WL LKLY NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR TEMPS TO RISE
MUCH MORE THAN 2-4 DEGREES INTO THE AFTN AND MAY NEED TO DROP
MAXES FURTHER WITH LATER UPDATES.

PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...

655 AM UPDATE...
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS-SPRINKLES IS NOW DROPPING FROM WESTERN
CATSKILLS ACROSS TWIN TIERS/NEPA. TREND IN HIGH RES MODELS AND
LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS IS FOR A RELATIVE LULL TO OCCUR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS WAVE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH ARRIVES FROM EAST LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. FORECAST ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. STILL SOLID CLOUD
COVER WHICH SOME MAY CONSIDER DREARY...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE
THIS MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE RAIN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY AMPLIFIED DIGGING TROUGH HAS NOW CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW...THE
CENTER OF WHICH IS DESCENDING UPON VIRGINIA...AND IN RESPONSE
CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE OFFSHORE FROM CHESAPEAKE
BAY. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS BECOME STACKED THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH WILL HALT MOVEMENT OF BOTH...LEAVING US STUCK IN THE
MOIST AND COOL NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LARGE SYSTEM FOR A LONG
DURATION.

THROUGH TODAY...IN ADDITION TO A SOLID OVERCAST SKY...WAVES OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PEPPER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BEST
CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF I-81. TO THE WEST...THOUGH GLOOMY...MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.
MOISTURE TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND THUS RAIN AMOUNTS QUITE
LIGHT...MOST PLACES ONLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH EVEN
LIGHTER AMOUNTS TOWARDS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR.

THEN TONIGHT...SOME DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
EASTERLY COMPONENT OF 850MB WIND /AS IN 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
OVER NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THU/ WILL FURTHER INJECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE
INTO THE SYSTEM. THANKFULLY WITH OUR COOL AND FAIRLY STABLE
COLUMN...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STRUGGLE INTO INCREASE
TO RANGE OF THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH BY 12Z
THURSDAY. WEST OF I-81...RAIN AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY JUST
BE A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH...BUT TO THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS CATSKILLS...QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL EASILY
ATTAINABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE ON THE WAY. BY 12Z
THURSDAY...THE FOOTPRINT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
EXPANSIVE...WITH A TRAIN OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO
BERMUDA...NORTHWARD TO NOVA SCOTIA...THEN COILED BACK ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND DOWN THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS.

GIVEN ALL OF THIS MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS...VERY NARROW DIURNAL
RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS...LOWER TO
MID 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
STRONG EASTERLY 850MB JET THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING A WAYS INTO OUR REGION. WE SHOULD THUS STILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CATSKILLS...SHIFTING TOWARDS
UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES WITH TIME. IN
REGARDS TO AREAL AVERAGE QPF...EXPECTING ANOTHER THIRD TO HALF
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY ALONE...TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES...EASTERLY 850MB JET BACKS WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...AND IN FACT EVEN NORTH- NORTHWEST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO TAKE MORE OF A CIRCUITOUS ROUTE AS
TIME MARCHES ON...WITH INCREASINGLY CONTINENTAL COMPONENT AT LOWER
LEVELS. SO WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL CONTINUE...ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD LESSEN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER DEGREE ECMWF START TO LET GO OF THE
AREA...BUT NAM IS SLOWER WITH EXIT OF UPPER LOW AND SO HAS
VORTICITY SPOKE PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME I HAVE ELECTED FOR 40-50 POPS ACROSS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR BUT
ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD.

DAMPNESS-CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE SUPPRESS DIURNAL RANGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY LOWER 40S BY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S THURSDAY /MAINLY 50S FRIDAY/.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS LONG SLOG OF AN EVENT...FROM TODAY
/WEDNESDAY/ THROUGH FRIDAY WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGES FROM SEVERAL
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER NY-WYOMING VALLEY
PA...TO BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OR SO IN WESTERN
CATSKILLS-NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR-ITHACA-CORTLAND-OWEGO-BINGHAMTON-
MONTROSE-HONESDALE-MILFORD. SPREAD OUT OVER SO MUCH TIME...WE DO
NOT AT ALL ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. OVERALL...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR XPCTD THRU THE FCST PD. AT
RME...SUGGESTIONS THAT BRIEF PDS OF VFR WILL BE PSBL DUE TO
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR AND DOWNSLOPING DUE TO NE WINDS. LATER
TDA XPCT IFR/MVFR TO BCM RE-ESTABLISHED. ELSEWHERE OVER CNTRL
NY...CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY BLO AT MINS THIS MRNG BEFORE POTNL
IMPRVMNT TO MVFR LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. AT AVP...MVFR XPCTD TO
PREVAIL. BEST CHC FOR -SHRA APPEARS TO BE AT BGM AND AVP EARLY
THIS MRNG...WITH -SHRA BECMG MORE WDPSRD BY EARLY EVENING AS
ENHANCED MSTR MVS IN FROM THE EAST. NNE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING
NRLY 10-15 KTS TDA AND NNW 10-20 KTS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 221100
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
700 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS...COOL AIR...AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
655 AM UPDATE...
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS-SPRINKLES IS NOW DROPPING FROM WESTERN
CATSKILLS ACROSS TWIN TIERS/NEPA. TREND IN HIGH RES MODELS AND
LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS IS FOR A RELATIVE LULL TO OCCUR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS WAVE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH ARRIVES FROM EAST LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. FORECAST ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. STILL SOLID CLOUD
COVER WHICH SOME MAY CONSIDER DREARY...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE
THIS MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE RAIN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY AMPLIFIED DIGGING TROUGH HAS NOW CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW...THE
CENTER OF WHICH IS DESCENDING UPON VIRGINIA...AND IN RESPONSE
CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE OFFSHORE FROM CHESAPEAKE
BAY. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS BECOME STACKED THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH WILL HALT MOVEMENT OF BOTH...LEAVING US STUCK IN THE
MOIST AND COOL NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LARGE SYSTEM FOR A LONG
DURATION.

THROUGH TODAY...IN ADDITION TO A SOLID OVERCAST SKY...WAVES OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PEPPER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BEST
CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF I-81. TO THE WEST...THOUGH GLOOMY...MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.
MOISTURE TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND THUS RAIN AMOUNTS QUITE
LIGHT...MOST PLACES ONLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH EVEN
LIGHTER AMOUNTS TOWARDS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR.

THEN TONIGHT...SOME DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
EASTERLY COMPONENT OF 850MB WIND /AS IN 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
OVER NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THU/ WILL FURTHER INJECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE
INTO THE SYSTEM. THANKFULLY WITH OUR COOL AND FAIRLY STABLE
COLUMN...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STRUGGLE INTO INCREASE
TO RANGE OF THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH BY 12Z
THURSDAY. WEST OF I-81...RAIN AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY JUST
BE A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH...BUT TO THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS CATSKILLS...QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL EASILY
ATTAINABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE ON THE WAY. BY 12Z
THURSDAY...THE FOOTPRINT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
EXPANSIVE...WITH A TRAIN OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO
BERMUDA...NORTHWARD TO NOVA SCOTIA...THEN COILED BACK ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND DOWN THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS.

GIVEN ALL OF THIS MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS...VERY NARROW DIURNAL
RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS...LOWER TO
MID 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
STRONG EASTERLY 850MB JET THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING A WAYS INTO OUR REGION. WE SHOULD THUS STILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CATSKILLS...SHIFTING TOWARDS
UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES WITH TIME. IN
REGARDS TO AREAL AVERAGE QPF...EXPECTING ANOTHER THIRD TO HALF
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY ALONE...TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES...EASTERLY 850MB JET BACKS WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...AND IN FACT EVEN NORTH- NORTHWEST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO TAKE MORE OF A CIRCUITOUS ROUTE AS
TIME MARCHES ON...WITH INCREASINGLY CONTINENTAL COMPONENT AT LOWER
LEVELS. SO WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL CONTINUE...ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD LESSEN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER DEGREE ECMWF START TO LET GO OF THE
AREA...BUT NAM IS SLOWER WITH EXIT OF UPPER LOW AND SO HAS
VORTICITY SPOKE PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME I HAVE ELECTED FOR 40-50 POPS ACROSS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR BUT
ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD.

DAMPNESS-CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE SUPPRESS DIURNAL RANGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY LOWER 40S BY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S THURSDAY /MAINLY 50S FRIDAY/.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS LONG SLOG OF AN EVENT...FROM TODAY
/WEDNESDAY/ THROUGH FRIDAY WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGES FROM SEVERAL
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER NY-WYOMING VALLEY
PA...TO BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OR SO IN WESTERN
CATSKILLS-NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR-ITHACA-CORTLAND-OWEGO-BINGHAMTON-
MONTROSE-HONESDALE-MILFORD. SPREAD OUT OVER SO MUCH TIME...WE DO
NOT AT ALL ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. OVERALL...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR XPCTD THRU THE FCST PD. AT
RME...SUGGESTIONS THAT BRIEF PDS OF VFR WILL BE PSBL DUE TO
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR AND DOWNSLOPING DUE TO NE WINDS. LATER
TDA XPCT IFR/MVFR TO BCM RE-ESTABLISHED. ELSEWHERE OVER CNTRL
NY...CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY BLO AT MINS THIS MRNG BEFORE POTNL
IMPRVMNT TO MVFR LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. AT AVP...MVFR XPCTD TO
PREVAIL. BEST CHC FOR -SHRA APPEARS TO BE AT BGM AND AVP EARLY
THIS MRNG...WITH -SHRA BECMG MORE WDPSRD BY EARLY EVENING AS
ENHANCED MSTR MOVS IN FROM THE EAST. NNE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING
NRLY 10-15 KTS TDA AND NNW 10-20 KTS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 221100
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
700 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS...COOL AIR...AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
655 AM UPDATE...
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS-SPRINKLES IS NOW DROPPING FROM WESTERN
CATSKILLS ACROSS TWIN TIERS/NEPA. TREND IN HIGH RES MODELS AND
LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS IS FOR A RELATIVE LULL TO OCCUR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS WAVE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH ARRIVES FROM EAST LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. FORECAST ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. STILL SOLID CLOUD
COVER WHICH SOME MAY CONSIDER DREARY...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE
THIS MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE RAIN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY AMPLIFIED DIGGING TROUGH HAS NOW CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW...THE
CENTER OF WHICH IS DESCENDING UPON VIRGINIA...AND IN RESPONSE
CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE OFFSHORE FROM CHESAPEAKE
BAY. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS BECOME STACKED THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH WILL HALT MOVEMENT OF BOTH...LEAVING US STUCK IN THE
MOIST AND COOL NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LARGE SYSTEM FOR A LONG
DURATION.

THROUGH TODAY...IN ADDITION TO A SOLID OVERCAST SKY...WAVES OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PEPPER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BEST
CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF I-81. TO THE WEST...THOUGH GLOOMY...MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.
MOISTURE TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND THUS RAIN AMOUNTS QUITE
LIGHT...MOST PLACES ONLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH EVEN
LIGHTER AMOUNTS TOWARDS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR.

THEN TONIGHT...SOME DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
EASTERLY COMPONENT OF 850MB WIND /AS IN 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
OVER NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THU/ WILL FURTHER INJECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE
INTO THE SYSTEM. THANKFULLY WITH OUR COOL AND FAIRLY STABLE
COLUMN...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STRUGGLE INTO INCREASE
TO RANGE OF THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH BY 12Z
THURSDAY. WEST OF I-81...RAIN AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY JUST
BE A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH...BUT TO THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS CATSKILLS...QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL EASILY
ATTAINABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE ON THE WAY. BY 12Z
THURSDAY...THE FOOTPRINT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
EXPANSIVE...WITH A TRAIN OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO
BERMUDA...NORTHWARD TO NOVA SCOTIA...THEN COILED BACK ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND DOWN THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS.

GIVEN ALL OF THIS MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS...VERY NARROW DIURNAL
RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS...LOWER TO
MID 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
STRONG EASTERLY 850MB JET THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING A WAYS INTO OUR REGION. WE SHOULD THUS STILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CATSKILLS...SHIFTING TOWARDS
UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES WITH TIME. IN
REGARDS TO AREAL AVERAGE QPF...EXPECTING ANOTHER THIRD TO HALF
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY ALONE...TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES...EASTERLY 850MB JET BACKS WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...AND IN FACT EVEN NORTH- NORTHWEST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO TAKE MORE OF A CIRCUITOUS ROUTE AS
TIME MARCHES ON...WITH INCREASINGLY CONTINENTAL COMPONENT AT LOWER
LEVELS. SO WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL CONTINUE...ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD LESSEN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER DEGREE ECMWF START TO LET GO OF THE
AREA...BUT NAM IS SLOWER WITH EXIT OF UPPER LOW AND SO HAS
VORTICITY SPOKE PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME I HAVE ELECTED FOR 40-50 POPS ACROSS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR BUT
ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD.

DAMPNESS-CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE SUPPRESS DIURNAL RANGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY LOWER 40S BY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S THURSDAY /MAINLY 50S FRIDAY/.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS LONG SLOG OF AN EVENT...FROM TODAY
/WEDNESDAY/ THROUGH FRIDAY WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGES FROM SEVERAL
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER NY-WYOMING VALLEY
PA...TO BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OR SO IN WESTERN
CATSKILLS-NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR-ITHACA-CORTLAND-OWEGO-BINGHAMTON-
MONTROSE-HONESDALE-MILFORD. SPREAD OUT OVER SO MUCH TIME...WE DO
NOT AT ALL ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. OVERALL...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR XPCTD THRU THE FCST PD. AT
RME...SUGGESTIONS THAT BRIEF PDS OF VFR WILL BE PSBL DUE TO
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR AND DOWNSLOPING DUE TO NE WINDS. LATER
TDA XPCT IFR/MVFR TO BCM RE-ESTABLISHED. ELSEWHERE OVER CNTRL
NY...CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY BLO AT MINS THIS MRNG BEFORE POTNL
IMPRVMNT TO MVFR LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. AT AVP...MVFR XPCTD TO
PREVAIL. BEST CHC FOR -SHRA APPEARS TO BE AT BGM AND AVP EARLY
THIS MRNG...WITH -SHRA BECMG MORE WDPSRD BY EARLY EVENING AS
ENHANCED MSTR MOVS IN FROM THE EAST. NNE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING
NRLY 10-15 KTS TDA AND NNW 10-20 KTS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 221033
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
633 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS...COOL AIR...AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
VERY AMPLIFIED DIGGING TROUGH HAS NOW CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW...THE
CENTER OF WHICH IS DESCENDING UPON VIRGINIA...AND IN RESPONSE
CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE OFFSHORE FROM CHESAPEAKE
BAY. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS BECOME STACKED THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH WILL HALT MOVEMENT OF BOTH...LEAVING US STUCK IN THE
MOIST AND COOL NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LARGE SYSTEM FOR A LONG
DURATION.

THROUGH TODAY...IN ADDITION TO A SOLID OVERCAST SKY...WAVES OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PEPPER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BEST
CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF I-81. TO THE WEST...THOUGH GLOOMY...MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.
MOISTURE TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND THUS RAIN AMOUNTS QUITE
LIGHT...MOST PLACES ONLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH EVEN
LIGHTER AMOUNTS TOWARDS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR.

THEN TONIGHT...SOME DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
EASTERLY COMPONENT OF 850MB WIND /AS IN 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
OVER NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THU/ WILL FURTHER INJECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE
INTO THE SYSTEM. THANKFULLY WITH OUR COOL AND FAIRLY STABLE
COLUMN...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STRUGGLE INTO INCREASE
TO RANGE OF THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH BY 12Z
THURSDAY. WEST OF I-81...RAIN AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY JUST
BE A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH...BUT TO THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS CATSKILLS...QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL EASILY
ATTAINABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE ON THE WAY. BY 12Z
THURSDAY...THE FOOTPRINT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
EXPANSIVE...WITH A TRAIN OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO
BERMUDA...NORTHWARD TO NOVA SCOTIA...THEN COILED BACK ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND DOWN THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS.

GIVEN ALL OF THIS MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS...VERY NARROW DIURNAL
RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS...LOWER TO
MID 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
STRONG EASTERLY 850MB JET THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING A WAYS INTO OUR REGION. WE SHOULD THUS STILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CATSKILLS...SHIFTING TOWARDS
UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES WITH TIME. IN
REGARDS TO AREAL AVERAGE QPF...EXPECTING ANOTHER THIRD TO HALF
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY ALONE...TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES...EASTERLY 850MB JET BACKS WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...AND IN FACT EVEN NORTH- NORTHWEST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO TAKE MORE OF A CIRCUITOUS ROUTE AS
TIME MARCHES ON...WITH INCREASINGLY CONTINENTAL COMPONENT AT LOWER
LEVELS. SO WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL CONTINUE...ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD LESSEN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER DEGREE ECMWF START TO LET GO OF THE
AREA...BUT NAM IS SLOWER WITH EXIT OF UPPER LOW AND SO HAS
VORTICITY SPOKE PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME I HAVE ELECTED FOR 40-50 POPS ACROSS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR BUT
ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD.

DAMPNESS-CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE SUPPRESS DIURNAL RANGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY LOWER 40S BY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S THURSDAY /MAINLY 50S FRIDAY/.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS LONG SLOG OF AN EVENT...FROM TODAY
/WEDNESDAY/ THROUGH FRIDAY WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGES FROM SEVERAL
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER NY-WYOMING VALLEY
PA...TO BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OR SO IN WESTERN
CATSKILLS-NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR-ITHACA-CORTLAND-OWEGO-BINGHAMTON-
MONTROSE-HONESDALE-MILFORD. SPREAD OUT OVER SO MUCH TIME...WE DO
NOT AT ALL ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. OVERALL...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR XPCTD THRU THE FCST PD. AT
RME...SUGGESTIONS THAT BRIEF PDS OF VFR WILL BE PSBL DUE TO
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR AND DOWNSLOPING DUE TO NE WINDS. LATER
TDA XPCT IFR/MVFR TO BCM RE-ESTABLISHED. ELSEWHERE OVER CNTRL
NY...CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY BLO AT MINS THIS MRNG BEFORE POTNL
IMPRVMNT TO MVFR LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. AT AVP...MVFR XPCTD TO
PREVAIL. BEST CHC FOR -SHRA APPEARS TO BE AT BGM AND AVP EARLY
THIS MRNG...WITH -SHRA BECMG MORE WDPSRD BY EARLY EVENING AS
ENHANCED MSTR MOVS IN FROM THE EAST. NNE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING
NRLY 10-15 KTS TDA AND NNW 10-20 KTS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF






000
FXUS61 KBGM 220750
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
350 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS...COOL AIR...AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
VERY AMPLIFIED DIGGING TROUGH HAS NOW CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW...THE
CENTER OF WHICH IS DESCENDING UPON VIRGINIA...AND IN RESPONSE
CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE OFFSHORE FROM CHESAPEAKE
BAY. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS BECOME STACKED THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH WILL HALT MOVEMENT OF BOTH...LEAVING US STUCK IN THE
MOIST AND COOL NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LARGE SYSTEM FOR A LONG
DURATION.

THROUGH TODAY...IN ADDITION TO A SOLID OVERCAST SKY...WAVES OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PEPPER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BEST
CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF I-81. TO THE WEST...THOUGH GLOOMY...MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.
MOISTURE TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND THUS RAIN AMOUNTS QUITE
LIGHT...MOST PLACES ONLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH EVEN
LIGHTER AMOUNTS TOWARDS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR.

THEN TONIGHT...SOME DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
EASTERLY COMPONENT OF 850MB WIND /AS IN 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
OVER NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THU/ WILL FURTHER INJECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE
INTO THE SYSTEM. THANKFULLY WITH OUR COOL AND FAIRLY STABLE
COLUMN...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STRUGGLE INTO INCREASE
TO RANGE OF THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH BY 12Z
THURSDAY. WEST OF I-81...RAIN AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY JUST
BE A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH...BUT TO THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS CATSKILLS...QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL EASILY
ATTAINABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE ON THE WAY. BY 12Z
THURSDAY...THE FOOTPRINT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
EXPANSIVE...WITH A TRAIN OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO
BERMUDA...NORTHWARD TO NOVA SCOTIA...THEN COILED BACK ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND DOWN THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS.

GIVEN ALL OF THIS MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS...VERY NARROW DIURNAL
RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS...LOWER TO
MID 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
STRONG EASTERLY 850MB JET THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING A WAYS INTO OUR REGION. WE SHOULD THUS STILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CATSKILLS...SHIFTING TOWARDS
UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES WITH TIME. IN
REGARDS TO AREAL AVERAGE QPF...EXPECTING ANOTHER THIRD TO HALF
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY ALONE...TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES...EASTERLY 850MB JET BACKS WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...AND IN FACT EVEN NORTH- NORTHWEST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO TAKE MORE OF A CIRCUITOUS ROUTE AS
TIME MARCHES ON...WITH INCREASINGLY CONTINENTAL COMPONENT AT LOWER
LEVELS. SO WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL CONTINUE...ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD LESSEN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER DEGREE ECMWF START TO LET GO OF THE
AREA...BUT NAM IS SLOWER WITH EXIT OF UPPER LOW AND SO HAS
VORTICITY SPOKE PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME I HAVE ELECTED FOR 40-50 POPS ACROSS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR BUT
ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD.

DAMPNESS-CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE SUPPRESS DIURNAL RANGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY LOWER 40S BY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S THURSDAY /MAINLY 50S FRIDAY/.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS LONG SLOG OF AN EVENT...FROM TODAY
/WEDNESDAY/ THROUGH FRIDAY WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGES FROM SEVERAL
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER NY-WYOMING VALLEY
PA...TO BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OR SO IN WESTERN
CATSKILLS-NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR-ITHACA-CORTLAND-OWEGO-BINGHAMTON-
MONTROSE-HONESDALE-MILFORD. SPREAD OUT OVER SO MUCH TIME...WE DO
NOT AT ALL ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. OVERALL...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR XPCTD THRU THE FCST PD. AT
RME...SUGGESTIONS THAT BRIEF PDS OF VFR WILL BE PSBL DUE TO
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR AND DOWNSLOPING DUE TO NE WINDS. LATER
TDA AS THE FLOW BCMS MORE NRLY TO NWLY...XPCT IFR/MVFR TO BCM RE-
ESTABLISHED. ELSEWHERE OVER CNTRL NY...CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY BLO
AT MINS THIS MRNG BEFORE POTNL IMPRVMNT TO MVFR LATER THIS MRNG
AND AFTN. AT AVP...MVFR XPCTD TO PREVAIL. BEST CHC FOR -SHRA APPEARS
TO BE AT BGM AND AVP THIS MRNG...WITH -SHRA BECMG MORE WDPSRD BY
LATE AFTN AND SPCLY TNGT. NELY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING NRLY 10
KTS BY MID MORNING AND NNW 10-20 KTS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 220626
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
226 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS...COOL AIR...AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 AM UPDATE...
VERY AMPLIFIED DIGGING TROUGH HAS NOW CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW...THE
CENTER OF WHICH IS DESCENDING UPON VIRGINIA...AND IN RESPONSE
CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE OFFSHORE FROM CHESAPEAKE
BAY. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS BECOME STACKED THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH WILL HALT MOVEMENT OF BOTH...LEAVING US STUCK IN THE
MOIST AND COOL NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LARGE SYSTEM FOR A LONG
DURATION.

THROUGH TODAY...IN ADDITION TO A SOLID OVERCAST SKY...WAVES OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PEPPER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BEST
CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF I-81. TO THE WEST...THOUGH GLOOMY...MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.
MOISTURE TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND THUS RAIN AMOUNTS QUITE
LIGHT...MOST PLACES ONLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH EVEN
LIGHTER AMOUNTS TOWARDS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR.

THEN TONIGHT...SOME DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
EASTERLY COMPONENT OF 850MB WIND /AS IN 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
OVER NEW ENGLAND/ WILL FURTHER INJECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
SYSTEM. THANKFULLY WITH OUR COOL AND FAIRLY STABLE
COLUMN...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STRUGGLE INTO INCREASE
FROM THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WEST OF I-81...RAIN AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY JUST BE A TENTH
TO QUARTER INCH...BUT TO THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY TOWARDS
CATSKILLS...QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL EASILY ATTAINABLE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE ON THE WAY. BY 12Z THURSDAY...THE
FOOTPRINT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY EXPANSIVE...WITH A TRAIN OF
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO BERMUDA...NORTHWARD TO NOVA
SCOTIA...THEN COILED BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

GIVEN ALL OF THIS MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS...VERY NARROW DIURNAL
RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS...LOWER TO
MID 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE LOW CONTS TO DEEPEN...PERSISTENT FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
HIGHER POPS AND QPF TO THE AREA. ATTM LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER RAIN MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THU INTO EARLY
FRI AS THE LOW KIND OF BOTTOMS OUT NEAR CAPE COD.

LTR FRI...BLOCKING RDG TO THE NORTH FNLY BEGINS TO MVE OUT
ALLOWING THE LOW TO ACCELERATE TO THE NE. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME
DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE WRN AND SRN ZONES LATE IN THE PD.

TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL GNRLY BE A BIT BLO NRML DURING THE
DAY...BUT MILDER AT NGT. THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS ON AVG TO EVEN BE
SLGTLY ABV NRML.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. OVERALL...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR XPCTD THRU THE FCST PD. AT
RME...SUGGESTIONS THAT BRIEF PDS OF VFR WILL BE PSBL DUE TO
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR AND DOWNSLOPING DUE TO NE WINDS. LATER
TDA AS THE FLOW BCMS MORE NRLY TO NWLY...XPCT IFR/MVFR TO BCM RE-
ESTABLISHED. ELSEWHERE OVER CNTRL NY...CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY BLO
AT MINS THIS MRNG BEFORE POTNL IMPRVMNT TO MVFR LATER THIS MRNG
AND AFTN. AT AVP...MVFR XPCTD TO PREVAIL. BEST CHC FOR -SHRA APPEARS
TO BE AT BGM AND AVP THIS MRNG...WITH -SHRA BECMG MORE WDPSRD BY
LATE AFTN AND SPCLY TNGT. NELY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING NRLY 10
KTS BY MID MORNING AND NNW 10-20 KTS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 220620
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
220 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE COAST OF MARYLAND TOMORROW
EVENING...THEN NEAR MAINE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS...COOL
AIR... AND PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 AM UPDATE...
VERY AMPLIFIED DIGGING TROUGH HAS NOW CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW...THE
CENTER OF WHICH IS DESCENDING UPON VIRGINIA...AND IN RESPONSE
CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE OFFSHORE FROM CHESAPEAKE
BAY. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS BECOME STACKED THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH WILL HALT MOVEMENT OF BOTH...LEAVING US STUCK IN THE
MOIST AND COOL NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LARGE SYSTEM FOR A LONG
DURATION.

THROUGH TODAY...IN ADDITION TO A SOLID OVERCAST SKY...WAVES OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PEPPER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BEST
CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF I-81. TO THE WEST...THOUGH GLOOMY...MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.
MOISTURE TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND THUS RAIN AMOUNTS QUITE
LIGHT...MOST PLACES ONLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH EVEN
LIGHTER AMOUNTS TOWARDS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR.

THEN TONIGHT...SOME DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
EASTERLY COMPONENT OF 850MB WIND /AS IN 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
OVER NEW ENGLAND/ WILL FURTHER INJECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
SYSTEM. THANKFULLY WITH OUR COOL AND FAIRLY STABLE
COLUMN...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STRUGGLE INTO INCREASE
FROM THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WEST OF I-81...RAIN AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY JUST BE A TENTH
TO QUARTER INCH...BUT TO THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY TOWARDS
CATSKILLS...QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL EASILY ATTAINABLE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE ON THE WAY. BY 12Z THURSDAY...THE
FOOTPRINT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY EXPANSIVE...WITH A TRAIN OF
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO BERMUDA...NORTHWARD TO NOVA
SCOTIA...THEN COILED BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

GIVEN ALL OF THIS MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS...VERY NARROW DIURNAL
RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS...LOWER TO
MID 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE LOW CONTS TO DEEPEN...PERSISTENT FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
HIGHER POPS AND QPF TO THE AREA. ATTM LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER RAIN MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THU INTO EARLY
FRI AS THE LOW KIND OF BOTTOMS OUT NEAR CAPE COD.

LTR FRI...BLOCKING RDG TO THE NORTH FNLY BEGINS TO MVE OUT
ALLOWING THE LOW TO ACCELERATE TO THE NE. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME
DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE WRN AND SRN ZONES LATE IN THE PD.

TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL GNRLY BE A BIT BLO NRML DURING THE
DAY...BUT MILDER AT NGT. THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS ON AVG TO EVEN BE
SLGTLY ABV NRML.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. OVERALL...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR XPCTD THRU THE FCST PD. AT
RME...SUGGESTIONS THAT BRIEF PDS OF VFR WILL BE PSBL DUE TO
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR AND DOWNSLOPING DUE TO NE WINDS. LATER
TDA AS THE FLOW BCMS MORE NRLY TO NWLY...XPCT IFR/MVFR TO BCM RE-
ESTABLISHED. ELSEWHERE OVER CNTRL NY...CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY BLO
AT MINS THIS MRNG BEFORE POTNL IMPRVMNT TO MVFR LATER THIS MRNG
AND AFTN. AT AVP...MVFR XPCTD TO PREVAIL. BEST CHC FOR -SHRA APPEARS
TO BE AT BGM AND AVP THIS MRNG...WITH -SHRA BECMG MORE WDPSRD BY
LATE AFTN AND SPCLY TNGT. NELY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING NRLY 10
KTS BY MID MORNING AND NNW 10-20 KTS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 220545
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE COAST OF MARYLAND TOMORROW
EVENING...THEN NEAR MAINE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS...COOL
AIR... AND PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND SYNOPTIC LOW THIS SHIFT.
SHOWERS ARE LINING UP AS FORECAST OVER THE SERN FA, WITH LESSER
POPS TO THE NORTHWEST FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE.

UPDATED THE NEAR TERM T/TD GRIDS AND THE POPS TO BETTER FIT
CURRENT SCENARIO AND SHORT TERM MESOSCALE RUNS.

4 PM UPDATE...
SWIRL CLEARLY VSBL IN THE RADAR MOSAIC OVER WRN PA MARKS THE CNTR
OF THE UPR LOW. NAM FCST A NEARLY DUE SOUTH MVMT OVRNGT BRING THE
CNTR OVER ERN VA BY 12Z WED. SFC LOW IS NOT YET WELL DVLPD...SO
UPR LOW DEEPENS SLOWLY. THIS IN TURN LIMITS THE ELY INFLOW.
SO...WHILE THERE/S PLENTY OF MOISTURE ARND...LIMTED INSTABILITY
AND A MORE SLY THAN ELY FLOW SHD LIMIT THE PCPN OVRNGT...AS IT HAS
SO FAR TODAY.

XPCT CONTD LGT SHWRS AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES OVRNGT...AND ONLY A
LIMITED DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY PTRN CONTS WITH THE CLSD LOW SLOWLY DEEPENING AND DRFTG
NEWRD OFF THE ATLANTIC CST. WED ACTUALLY LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AS THE
DVLPG ELY FLOW HAS NOT YET PULLED THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BACK TO THE WEST AND INTO THE FCST AREA. AS THE LOW
CONTS TO DEEPEN...PERSISTANT FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING HIGHER
POPS AND QPF TO THE AREA. ATTM LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
HEAVIER RAIN MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI AS
THE LOW KIND OF BOTTOMS OUT NEAR CAPE COD.

LTR FRI...BLOCKING RDG TO THE NORTH FNLY BEGINS TO MVE OUT
ALLOWING THE LOW TO ACCELERATE TO THE NE. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME
DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE WRN AND SRN ZONES LATE IN THE PD.

TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL GNRLY BE A BIT BLO NRML DURING THE
DAY...BUT MILDER AT NGT. THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS ON AVG TO EVEN BE
SLGTLY ABV NRML.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. OVERALL...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR XPCTD THRU THE FCST PD. AT
RME...SUGGESTIONS THAT BRIEF PDS OF VFR WILL BE PSBL DUE TO
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR AND DOWNSLOPING DUE TO NE WINDS. LATER
TDA AS THE FLOW BCMS MORE NRLY TO NWLY...XPCT IFR/MVFR TO BCM RE-
ESTABLISHED. ELSEWHERE OVER CNTRL NY...CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY BLO
AT MINS THIS MRNG BEFORE POTNL IMPRVMNT TO MVFR LATER THIS MRNG
AND AFTN. AT AVP...MVFR XPCTD TO PREVAIL. BEST CHC FOR -SHRA APPEARS
TO BE AT BGM AND AVP THIS MRNG...WITH -SHRA BECMG MORE WDPSRD BY
LATE AFTN AND SPCLY TNGT. NELY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING NRLY 10
KTS BY MID MORNING AND NNW 10-20 KTS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 220545
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE COAST OF MARYLAND TOMORROW
EVENING...THEN NEAR MAINE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS...COOL
AIR... AND PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND SYNOPTIC LOW THIS SHIFT.
SHOWERS ARE LINING UP AS FORECAST OVER THE SERN FA, WITH LESSER
POPS TO THE NORTHWEST FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE.

UPDATED THE NEAR TERM T/TD GRIDS AND THE POPS TO BETTER FIT
CURRENT SCENARIO AND SHORT TERM MESOSCALE RUNS.

4 PM UPDATE...
SWIRL CLEARLY VSBL IN THE RADAR MOSAIC OVER WRN PA MARKS THE CNTR
OF THE UPR LOW. NAM FCST A NEARLY DUE SOUTH MVMT OVRNGT BRING THE
CNTR OVER ERN VA BY 12Z WED. SFC LOW IS NOT YET WELL DVLPD...SO
UPR LOW DEEPENS SLOWLY. THIS IN TURN LIMITS THE ELY INFLOW.
SO...WHILE THERE/S PLENTY OF MOISTURE ARND...LIMTED INSTABILITY
AND A MORE SLY THAN ELY FLOW SHD LIMIT THE PCPN OVRNGT...AS IT HAS
SO FAR TODAY.

XPCT CONTD LGT SHWRS AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES OVRNGT...AND ONLY A
LIMITED DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY PTRN CONTS WITH THE CLSD LOW SLOWLY DEEPENING AND DRFTG
NEWRD OFF THE ATLANTIC CST. WED ACTUALLY LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AS THE
DVLPG ELY FLOW HAS NOT YET PULLED THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BACK TO THE WEST AND INTO THE FCST AREA. AS THE LOW
CONTS TO DEEPEN...PERSISTANT FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING HIGHER
POPS AND QPF TO THE AREA. ATTM LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
HEAVIER RAIN MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI AS
THE LOW KIND OF BOTTOMS OUT NEAR CAPE COD.

LTR FRI...BLOCKING RDG TO THE NORTH FNLY BEGINS TO MVE OUT
ALLOWING THE LOW TO ACCELERATE TO THE NE. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME
DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE WRN AND SRN ZONES LATE IN THE PD.

TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL GNRLY BE A BIT BLO NRML DURING THE
DAY...BUT MILDER AT NGT. THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS ON AVG TO EVEN BE
SLGTLY ABV NRML.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. OVERALL...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR XPCTD THRU THE FCST PD. AT
RME...SUGGESTIONS THAT BRIEF PDS OF VFR WILL BE PSBL DUE TO
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR AND DOWNSLOPING DUE TO NE WINDS. LATER
TDA AS THE FLOW BCMS MORE NRLY TO NWLY...XPCT IFR/MVFR TO BCM RE-
ESTABLISHED. ELSEWHERE OVER CNTRL NY...CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY BLO
AT MINS THIS MRNG BEFORE POTNL IMPRVMNT TO MVFR LATER THIS MRNG
AND AFTN. AT AVP...MVFR XPCTD TO PREVAIL. BEST CHC FOR -SHRA APPEARS
TO BE AT BGM AND AVP THIS MRNG...WITH -SHRA BECMG MORE WDPSRD BY
LATE AFTN AND SPCLY TNGT. NELY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING NRLY 10
KTS BY MID MORNING AND NNW 10-20 KTS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 220129
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
929 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE COAST OF MARYLAND TOMORROW
EVENING...THEN NEAR MAINE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS...COOL
AIR... AND PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND SYNOPTIC LOW THIS SHIFT.
SHOWERS ARE LINING UP AS FORECAST OVER THE SERN FA, WITH LESSER
POPS TO THE NORTHWEST FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE.

UPDATED THE NEAR TERM T/TD GRIDS AND THE POPS TO BETTER FIT
CURRENT SCENARIO AND SHORT TERM MESOSCALE RUNS.

4 PM UPDATE...
SWIRL CLEARLY VSBL IN THE RADAR MOSAIC OVER WRN PA MARKS THE CNTR
OF THE UPR LOW. NAM FCST A NEARLY DUE SOUTH MVMT OVRNGT BRING THE
CNTR OVER ERN VA BY 12Z WED. SFC LOW IS NOT YET WELL DVLPD...SO
UPR LOW DEEPENS SLOWLY. THIS IN TURN LIMITS THE ELY INFLOW.
SO...WHILE THERE/S PLENTY OF MOISTURE ARND...LIMTED INSTABILITY
AND A MORE SLY THAN ELY FLOW SHD LIMIT THE PCPN OVRNGT...AS IT HAS
SO FAR TODAY.

XPCT CONTD LGT SHWRS AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES OVRNGT...AND ONLY A
LIMITED DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY PTRN CONTS WITH THE CLSD LOW SLOWLY DEEPENING AND DRFTG
NEWRD OFF THE ATLANTIC CST. WED ACTUALLY LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AS THE
DVLPG ELY FLOW HAS NOT YET PULLED THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BACK TO THE WEST AND INTO THE FCST AREA. AS THE LOW
CONTS TO DEEPEN...PERSISTANT FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING HIGHER
POPS AND QPF TO THE AREA. ATTM LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
HEAVIER RAIN MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI AS
THE LOW KIND OF BOTTOMS OUT NEAR CAPE COD.

LTR FRI...BLOCKING RDG TO THE NORTH FNLY BEGINS TO MVE OUT
ALLOWING THE LOW TO ACCELERATE TO THE NE. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME
DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE WRN AND SRN ZONES LATE IN THE PD.

TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL GNRLY BE A BIT BLO NRML DURING THE
DAY...BUT MILDER AT NGT. THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS ON AVG TO EVEN BE
SLGTLY ABV NRML.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. AT KRME/KSYR, N/NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP
CIGS GENERALLY IN THE MVFR/LOW VFR CATEGORY DUE TO DOWN SLOPING. ON
WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH MVFR CIGS
BECOMING MORE COMMON. AT KITH/KBGM/KELM, N/NW FLOW WILL GENERALLY
LEAD TO MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS. DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL SATURATION ALONG WITH FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION, IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. ON WEDNESDAY,
CIGS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY LOW MVFR. AT KAVP, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE MVFR/LOW MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING NW BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 220019
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
819 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE COAST OF MARYLAND TOMORROW
EVENING...THEN NEAR MAINE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS...COOL
AIR... AND PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SWIRL CLEARLY VSBL IN THE RADAR MOSAIC OVER WRN PA MARKS THE CNTR
OF THE UPR LOW. NAM FCST A NEARLY DUE SOUTH MVMT OVRNGT BRING THE
CNTR OVER ERN VA BY 12Z WED. SFC LOW IS NOT YET WELL DVLPD...SO UPR
LOW DEEPENS SLOWLY. THIS IN TURN LIMITS THE ELY INFLOW. SO...WHILE
THERE/S PLENTY OF MOISTURE ARND...LIMTED INSTABILITY AND A MORE
SLY THAN ELY FLOW SHD LIMIT THE PCPN OVRNGT...AS IT HAS SO FAR
TODAY.

XPCT CONTD LGT SHWRS AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES OVRNGT...AND ONLY A
LIMITED DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLOCKY PTRN CONTS WITH THE CLSD LOW SLOWLY DEEPENING AND DRFTG
NEWRD OFF THE ATLANTIC CST. WED ACTUALLY LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AS THE
DVLPG ELY FLOW HAS NOT YET PULLED THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BACK TO THE WEST AND INTO THE FCST AREA. AS THE LOW
CONTS TO DEEPEN...PERSISTANT FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING HIGHER
POPS AND QPF TO THE AREA. ATTM LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
HEAVIER RAIN MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI AS
THE LOW KIND OF BOTTOMS OUT NEAR CAPE COD.

LTR FRI...BLOCKING RDG TO THE NORTH FNLY BEGINS TO MVE OUT
ALLOWING THE LOW TO ACCELERATE TO THE NE. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME
DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE WRN AND SRN ZONES LATE IN THE PD.

TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL GNRLY BE A BIT BLO NRML DURING THE
DAY...BUT MILDER AT NGT. THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS ON AVG TO EVEN BE
SLGTLY ABV NRML.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. AT KRME/KSYR, N/NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP
CIGS GENERALLY IN THE MVFR/LOW VFR CATEGORY DUE TO DOWN SLOPING. ON
WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH MVFR CIGS
BECOMING MORE COMMON. AT KITH/KBGM/KELM, N/NW FLOW WILL GENERALLY
LEAD TO MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS. DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL SATURATION ALONG WITH FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION, IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. ON WEDNESDAY,
CIGS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY LOW MVFR. AT KAVP, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE MVFR/LOW MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING NW BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 211833
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
233 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE COAST OF MARYLAND TOMORROW
EVENING...THEN NEAR MAINE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS...COOL
AIR... AND PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SWIRL CLEARLY VSBL IN THE RADAR MOSAIC OVER WRN PA MARKS THE CNTR
OF THE UPR LOW. NAM FCST A NEARLY DUE SOUTH MVMT OVRNGT BRING THE
CNTR OVER ERN VA BY 12Z WED. SFC LOW IS NOT YET WELL DVLPD...SO UPR
LOW DEEPENS SLOWLY. THIS IN TURN LIMITS THE ELY INFLOW. SO...WHILE
THERE/S PLENTY OF MOISTURE ARND...LIMTED INSTABILITY AND A MORE
SLY THAN ELY FLOW SHD LIMIT THE PCPN OVRNGT...AS IT HAS SO FAR
TODAY.

XPCT CONTD LGT SHWRS AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES OVRNGT...AND ONLY A
LIMITED DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BLOCKY PTRN CONTS WITH THE CLSD LOW SLOWLY DEEPENING AND DRFTG
NEWRD OFF THE ATLANTIC CST. WED ACTUALLY LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AS THE
DVLPG ELY FLOW HAS NOT YET PULLED THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BACK TO THE WEST AND INTO THE FCST AREA. AS THE LOW
CONTS TO DEEPEN...PERSISTANT FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING HIGHER
POPS AND QPF TO THE AREA. ATTM LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
HEAVIER RAIN MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI AS
THE LOW KIND OF BOTTOMS OUT NEAR CAPE COD.

LTR FRI...BLOCKING RDG TO THE NORTH FNLY BEGINS TO MVE OUT
ALLOWING THE LOW TO ACCELERATE TO THE NE. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME
DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE WRN AND SRN ZONES LATE IN THE PD.

TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL GNRLY BE A BIT BLO NRML DURING THE
DAY...BUT MILDER AT NGT. THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS ON AVG TO EVEN BE
SLGTLY ABV NRML.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORENING TDA AS LOW PRES SLIDES SEWD ACRS THE
BGM FCST AREA. GNRLY VFR EARLY THIS MRNG WITH SCT -SHRA MAINLY
ACRS CNTRL NY. LOWER CIGS WILL DVLP THIS AFTN AS LOW PRES SLIDES
SEWD BUT TIMING OF THE LOWER CIGS IS A DIFFICULT FCST. WE ARE
DELAYING THE ONSET OF WDSPRD MVFR AT ITH/ELM/SYR/ELM UNTIL LATER
THIS AFTN...ALTHO BRIEF MVFR IS PSBL THIS MRNG IN -SHRA. MVFR SHUD
GET INTO NE PA BY EVNG. WDSPRD MVFR/PATCHY IFR TNGT DUE TO CIGS/BR
AND SHRA. WINDS ON THE LGT AND VAR SIDE THIS MRNG...BECMG NRLY TO
NELY LATE TDA AND OVRNGT AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 211818
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
218 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST...AND BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. COOLER THAN
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHG ATTM. AREAS OF LGT PCPN CONT TO PIN
WHEEL ARND THE UPR LOW. STRONGER SHRT WV VERY APRNT ON WV EXIT TING
THE ERN ZONES NOW. BHD THAT...MSTLY VERY LGT PCPN AND EVEN SOME
DRIER AIR PUSHING THRU PA. CRNT FCST OF MSTLY CHANCE AND LIKELY
POPS LOOKS GOOD.

630 AM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES THIS MORNING FOR POSITION AND
TIMING OF WET VS DRY AREAS ON THE CURRENT RADAR AND EXPECTED SHORT
TERM TRENDS OF THE MESOSCALE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY MODELS WHICH
ILLUSTRATE SHOWERS BRIEFLY ENDING OVER EASTERN AREAS...BEFORE
FILLING IN AGAIN AS BAND OF RAIN DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW DRIFTS FROM WESTERN NY TO SOUTHERN PA
TODAY. THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY COMPLEX IN REGARD TO POSITION AND
TIMING OF ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CNY/NEPA. INITIALLY...PERSISTENCE
SHOULD RULE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CONTINUING RAIN ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY THIS MORNING. A MINOR IMPULSE
EJECTING ACROSS PA WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA WITH A
RELATIVE MIN OF ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF CNY EARLY. AS THE ENTIRE LOW
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP SOUTH ACROSS MORE
OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEART OF THE CLOSED LOW
PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS. THE WILDCARD WILL THEN
BE HOW MUCH OCCURS IN NEPA WITH SOME DRYING NOTED IN THE MODELS
AND A DEPARTURE OF UPR LEVEL FORCING. BOTTOM LINE IS...THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE TODAY BUT THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ONLY BY A SMALL MARGIN TODAY FROM
CURRENT READINGS WITH MID 50S ABOUT ALL WE CAN MUSTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER DETAILS CONTINUES FOR THE
REST OF THIS PERIOD AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS
EAST. THE MODEL SUITES ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DESPITE
HAVING TO DEAL WITH A CUTOFF SYSTEM. THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE
FORECAST IS TO SHIFT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES AS THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...AND SUPPORTING S/WV TROFS
ROTATE AROUND THE STORM. IT DOES SEEM THAT MOST OF THE NEEDED
FACTORS COME TOGETHER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
FOR A GOOD PERIOD OF RAIN EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND WE WILL
FOCUS OUR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THAT TIME...BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AT ANY TIME.

HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES A BIT GIVEN PROLONGED CLOUD COVER...RAIN
AND LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE EXPECTED. LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DIP TO THE MID 40S AT NIGHT...AND RISE ONLY TO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ONLY OTHER FACTOR OF INTEREST WILL BE A DEVELOPING N-NW BREEZE
OF 10-20 MPH FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEEPENS
AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL BE HEADING OFF THRU THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRI NGT.
WRAP-ARND MOISTURE WL BE PRESENT IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND CLDS
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIPRES NOW LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY WITH
TEMPS MODERATING INTO THE L/M 60S BY THE END OF THE 7 DAYS.
OTHERWISE A CLDY AND GLOOMY START TO THE LONG TERM ON TAP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS IN A MOIST AIRMASS. LOW
PRESSURE IS REDEVELOPING OFF THE COAST AT THIS TIME WITH FLOW NOT
BECOMING NORTHERLY FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NON-RESTRICTED SHOWERS INTO
THE EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR CIGS AT ITH AND BGM IF FLOW
CAN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT THUS HAVE TEMPO`D
IN IFR CIGS AT ITH BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z AND AT BGM BETWEEN 08Z AND
12Z. HOWEVER, IF WINDS STAY NORTHEASTERLY EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS
TO CONTINUE. AS FOR ELM, IFR INDICATED AFTER 06Z IMPROVING TO MVFR
AFTER 14Z IN SATURATED AIRMASS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AROUND 5KTS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NNE
GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT/SUN...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/JAB
NEAR TERM...DGM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF






000
FXUS61 KBGM 211334
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
934 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST...AND BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. COOLER THAN
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

930 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHG ATTM. AREAS OF LGT PCPN CONT TO PIN
WHEEL ARND THE UPR LOW. STRONGER SHRT WV VERY APRNT ON WV EXITTING
THE ERN ZONES NOW. BHD THAT...MSTLY VERY LGT PCPN AND EVEN SOME
DRIER AIR PUSHING THEU PA. CRNT FCST OF MSTLY CHANCE AND LIKELY
POPS LOOKS GOOD.

630 AM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES THIS MORNING FOR POSITION AND
TIMING OF WET VS DRY AREAS ON THE CURRENT RADAR AND EXPECTED SHORT
TERM TRENDS OF THE MESOSCALE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY MODELS WHICH
ILLUSTRATE SHOWERS BRIEFLY ENDING OVER EASTERN AREAS...BEFORE
FILLING IN AGAIN AS BAND OF RAIN DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW DRIFTS FROM WESTERN NY TO SOUTHERN PA
TODAY. THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY COMPLEX IN REGARD TO POSITION AND
TIMING OF ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CNY/NEPA. INITIALLY...PERSISTENCE
SHOULD RULE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CONTINUING RAIN ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY THIS MORNING. A MINOR IMPULSE
EJECTING ACROSS PA WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA WITH A
RELATIVE MIN OF ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF CNY EARLY. AS THE ENTIRE LOW
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP SOUTH ACROSS MORE
OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEART OF THE CLOSED LOW
PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS. THE WILDCARD WILL THEN
BE HOW MUCH OCCURS IN NEPA WITH SOME DRYING NOTED IN THE MODELS
AND A DEPARTURE OF UPR LEVEL FORCING. BOTTOM LINE IS...THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE TODAY BUT THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ONLY BY A SMALL MARGIN TODAY FROM
CURRENT READINGS WITH MID 50S ABOUT ALL WE CAN MUSTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER DETAILS CONTINUES FOR THE
REST OF THIS PERIOD AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS
EAST. THE MODEL SUITES ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DESPITE
HAVING TO DEAL WITH A CUTOFF SYSTEM. THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE
FORECAST IS TO SHIFT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES AS THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...AND SUPPORTING S/WV TROFS
ROTATE AROUND THE STORM. IT DOES SEEM THAT MOST OF THE NEEDED
FACTORS COME TOGETHER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
FOR A GOOD PERIOD OF RAIN EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND WE WILL
FOCUS OUR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THAT TIME...BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AT ANY TIME.

HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES A BIT GIVEN PROLONGED CLOUD COVER...RAIN
AND LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE EXPECTED. LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DIP TO THE MID 40S AT NIGHT...AND RISE ONLY TO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ONLY OTHER FACTOR OF INTEREST WILL BE A DEVELOPING N-NW BREEZE
OF 10-20 MPH FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEEPENS
AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORENING TDA AS LOW PRES SLIDES SEWD ACRS THE
BGM FCST AREA. GNRLY VFR EARLY THIS MRNG WITH SCT -SHRA MAINLY
ACRS CNTRL NY. LOWER CIGS WILL DVLP THIS AFTN AS LOW PRES SLIDES
SEWD BUT TIMING OF THE LOWER CIGS IS A DIFFICULT FCST. WE ARE
DELAYING THE ONSET OF WDSPRD MVFR AT ITH/ELM/SYR/ELM UNTIL LATER
THIS AFTN...ALTHO BRIEF MVFR IS PSBL THIS MRNG IN -SHRA. MVFR SHUD
GET INTO NE PA BY EVNG. WDSPRD MVFR/PATCHY IFR TNGT DUE TO CIGS/BR
AND SHRA. WINDS ON THE LGT AND VAR SIDE THIS MRNG...BECMG NRLY TO
NELY LATE TDA AND OVRNGT AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/JAB
NEAR TERM...DGM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 211334
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
934 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST...AND BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. COOLER THAN
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

930 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHG ATTM. AREAS OF LGT PCPN CONT TO PIN
WHEEL ARND THE UPR LOW. STRONGER SHRT WV VERY APRNT ON WV EXITTING
THE ERN ZONES NOW. BHD THAT...MSTLY VERY LGT PCPN AND EVEN SOME
DRIER AIR PUSHING THEU PA. CRNT FCST OF MSTLY CHANCE AND LIKELY
POPS LOOKS GOOD.

630 AM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES THIS MORNING FOR POSITION AND
TIMING OF WET VS DRY AREAS ON THE CURRENT RADAR AND EXPECTED SHORT
TERM TRENDS OF THE MESOSCALE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY MODELS WHICH
ILLUSTRATE SHOWERS BRIEFLY ENDING OVER EASTERN AREAS...BEFORE
FILLING IN AGAIN AS BAND OF RAIN DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW DRIFTS FROM WESTERN NY TO SOUTHERN PA
TODAY. THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY COMPLEX IN REGARD TO POSITION AND
TIMING OF ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CNY/NEPA. INITIALLY...PERSISTENCE
SHOULD RULE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CONTINUING RAIN ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY THIS MORNING. A MINOR IMPULSE
EJECTING ACROSS PA WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA WITH A
RELATIVE MIN OF ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF CNY EARLY. AS THE ENTIRE LOW
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP SOUTH ACROSS MORE
OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEART OF THE CLOSED LOW
PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS. THE WILDCARD WILL THEN
BE HOW MUCH OCCURS IN NEPA WITH SOME DRYING NOTED IN THE MODELS
AND A DEPARTURE OF UPR LEVEL FORCING. BOTTOM LINE IS...THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE TODAY BUT THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ONLY BY A SMALL MARGIN TODAY FROM
CURRENT READINGS WITH MID 50S ABOUT ALL WE CAN MUSTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER DETAILS CONTINUES FOR THE
REST OF THIS PERIOD AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS
EAST. THE MODEL SUITES ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DESPITE
HAVING TO DEAL WITH A CUTOFF SYSTEM. THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE
FORECAST IS TO SHIFT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES AS THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...AND SUPPORTING S/WV TROFS
ROTATE AROUND THE STORM. IT DOES SEEM THAT MOST OF THE NEEDED
FACTORS COME TOGETHER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
FOR A GOOD PERIOD OF RAIN EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND WE WILL
FOCUS OUR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THAT TIME...BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AT ANY TIME.

HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES A BIT GIVEN PROLONGED CLOUD COVER...RAIN
AND LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE EXPECTED. LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DIP TO THE MID 40S AT NIGHT...AND RISE ONLY TO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ONLY OTHER FACTOR OF INTEREST WILL BE A DEVELOPING N-NW BREEZE
OF 10-20 MPH FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEEPENS
AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORENING TDA AS LOW PRES SLIDES SEWD ACRS THE
BGM FCST AREA. GNRLY VFR EARLY THIS MRNG WITH SCT -SHRA MAINLY
ACRS CNTRL NY. LOWER CIGS WILL DVLP THIS AFTN AS LOW PRES SLIDES
SEWD BUT TIMING OF THE LOWER CIGS IS A DIFFICULT FCST. WE ARE
DELAYING THE ONSET OF WDSPRD MVFR AT ITH/ELM/SYR/ELM UNTIL LATER
THIS AFTN...ALTHO BRIEF MVFR IS PSBL THIS MRNG IN -SHRA. MVFR SHUD
GET INTO NE PA BY EVNG. WDSPRD MVFR/PATCHY IFR TNGT DUE TO CIGS/BR
AND SHRA. WINDS ON THE LGT AND VAR SIDE THIS MRNG...BECMG NRLY TO
NELY LATE TDA AND OVRNGT AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/JAB
NEAR TERM...DGM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...









000
FXUS61 KBGM 211045
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST...AND BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. COOLER THAN
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES THIS MORNING FOR POSITION AND
TIMING OF WET VS DRY AREAS ON THE CURRENT RADAR AND EXPECTED SHORT
TERM TRENDS OF THE MESOSCALE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY MODELS WHICH
ILLUSTRATE SHOWERS BRIEFLY ENDING OVER EASTERN AREAS...BEFORE
FILLING IN AGAIN AS BAND OF RAIN DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW DRIFTS FROM WESTERN NY TO SOUTHERN PA
TODAY. THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY COMPLEX IN REGARD TO POSITION AND
TIMING OF ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CNY/NEPA. INITIALLY...PERSISTENCE
SHOULD RULE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CONTINUING RAIN ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY THIS MORNING. A MINOR IMPULSE
EJECTING ACROSS PA WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA WITH A
RELATIVE MIN OF ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF CNY EARLY. AS THE ENTIRE LOW
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP SOUTH ACROSS MORE
OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEART OF THE CLOSED LOW
PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS. THE WILDCARD WILL THEN
BE HOW MUCH OCCURS IN NEPA WITH SOME DRYING NOTED IN THE MODELS
AND A DEPARTURE OF UPR LEVEL FORCING. BOTTOM LINE IS...THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE TODAY BUT THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ONLY BY A SMALL MARGIN TODAY FROM
CURRENT READINGS WITH MID 50S ABOUT ALL WE CAN MUSTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER DETAILS CONTINUES FOR THE
REST OF THIS PERIOD AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS
EAST. THE MODEL SUITES ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DESPITE
HAVING TO DEAL WITH A CUTOFF SYSTEM. THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE
FORECAST IS TO SHIFT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES AS THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...AND SUPPORTING S/WV TROFS
ROTATE AROUND THE STORM. IT DOES SEEM THAT MOST OF THE NEEDED
FACTORS COME TOGETHER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
FOR A GOOD PERIOD OF RAIN EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND WE WILL
FOCUS OUR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THAT TIME...BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AT ANY TIME.

HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES A BIT GIVEN PROLONGED CLOUD COVER...RAIN
AND LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE EXPECTED. LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DIP TO THE MID 40S AT NIGHT...AND RISE ONLY TO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ONLY OTHER FACTOR OF INTEREST WILL BE A DEVELOPING N-NW BREEZE
OF 10-20 MPH FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEEPENS
AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORENING TDA AS LOW PRES SLIDES SEWD ACRS THE
BGM FCST AREA. GNRLY VFR EARLY THIS MRNG WITH SCT -SHRA MAINLY
ACRS CNTRL NY. LOWER CIGS WILL DVLP THIS AFTN AS LOW PRES SLIDES
SEWD BUT TIMING OF THE LOWER CIGS IS A DIFFICULT FCST. WE ARE
DELAYING THE ONSET OF WDSPRD MVFR AT ITH/ELM/SYR/ELM UNTIL LATER
THIS AFTN...ALTHO BRIEF MVFR IS PSBL THIS MRNG IN -SHRA. MVFR SHUD
GET INTO NE PA BY EVNG. WDSPRD MVFR/PATCHY IFR TNGT DUE TO CIGS/BR
AND SHRA. WINDS ON THE LGT AND VAR SIDE THIS MRNG...BECMG NRLY TO
NELY LATE TDA AND OVRNGT AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 211045
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST...AND BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. COOLER THAN
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES THIS MORNING FOR POSITION AND
TIMING OF WET VS DRY AREAS ON THE CURRENT RADAR AND EXPECTED SHORT
TERM TRENDS OF THE MESOSCALE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY MODELS WHICH
ILLUSTRATE SHOWERS BRIEFLY ENDING OVER EASTERN AREAS...BEFORE
FILLING IN AGAIN AS BAND OF RAIN DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW DRIFTS FROM WESTERN NY TO SOUTHERN PA
TODAY. THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY COMPLEX IN REGARD TO POSITION AND
TIMING OF ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CNY/NEPA. INITIALLY...PERSISTENCE
SHOULD RULE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CONTINUING RAIN ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY THIS MORNING. A MINOR IMPULSE
EJECTING ACROSS PA WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA WITH A
RELATIVE MIN OF ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF CNY EARLY. AS THE ENTIRE LOW
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP SOUTH ACROSS MORE
OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEART OF THE CLOSED LOW
PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS. THE WILDCARD WILL THEN
BE HOW MUCH OCCURS IN NEPA WITH SOME DRYING NOTED IN THE MODELS
AND A DEPARTURE OF UPR LEVEL FORCING. BOTTOM LINE IS...THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE TODAY BUT THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ONLY BY A SMALL MARGIN TODAY FROM
CURRENT READINGS WITH MID 50S ABOUT ALL WE CAN MUSTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER DETAILS CONTINUES FOR THE
REST OF THIS PERIOD AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS
EAST. THE MODEL SUITES ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DESPITE
HAVING TO DEAL WITH A CUTOFF SYSTEM. THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE
FORECAST IS TO SHIFT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES AS THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...AND SUPPORTING S/WV TROFS
ROTATE AROUND THE STORM. IT DOES SEEM THAT MOST OF THE NEEDED
FACTORS COME TOGETHER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
FOR A GOOD PERIOD OF RAIN EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND WE WILL
FOCUS OUR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THAT TIME...BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AT ANY TIME.

HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES A BIT GIVEN PROLONGED CLOUD COVER...RAIN
AND LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE EXPECTED. LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DIP TO THE MID 40S AT NIGHT...AND RISE ONLY TO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ONLY OTHER FACTOR OF INTEREST WILL BE A DEVELOPING N-NW BREEZE
OF 10-20 MPH FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEEPENS
AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORENING TDA AS LOW PRES SLIDES SEWD ACRS THE
BGM FCST AREA. GNRLY VFR EARLY THIS MRNG WITH SCT -SHRA MAINLY
ACRS CNTRL NY. LOWER CIGS WILL DVLP THIS AFTN AS LOW PRES SLIDES
SEWD BUT TIMING OF THE LOWER CIGS IS A DIFFICULT FCST. WE ARE
DELAYING THE ONSET OF WDSPRD MVFR AT ITH/ELM/SYR/ELM UNTIL LATER
THIS AFTN...ALTHO BRIEF MVFR IS PSBL THIS MRNG IN -SHRA. MVFR SHUD
GET INTO NE PA BY EVNG. WDSPRD MVFR/PATCHY IFR TNGT DUE TO CIGS/BR
AND SHRA. WINDS ON THE LGT AND VAR SIDE THIS MRNG...BECMG NRLY TO
NELY LATE TDA AND OVRNGT AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 211045
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST...AND BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. COOLER THAN
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES THIS MORNING FOR POSITION AND
TIMING OF WET VS DRY AREAS ON THE CURRENT RADAR AND EXPECTED SHORT
TERM TRENDS OF THE MESOSCALE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY MODELS WHICH
ILLUSTRATE SHOWERS BRIEFLY ENDING OVER EASTERN AREAS...BEFORE
FILLING IN AGAIN AS BAND OF RAIN DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW DRIFTS FROM WESTERN NY TO SOUTHERN PA
TODAY. THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY COMPLEX IN REGARD TO POSITION AND
TIMING OF ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CNY/NEPA. INITIALLY...PERSISTENCE
SHOULD RULE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CONTINUING RAIN ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY THIS MORNING. A MINOR IMPULSE
EJECTING ACROSS PA WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA WITH A
RELATIVE MIN OF ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF CNY EARLY. AS THE ENTIRE LOW
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP SOUTH ACROSS MORE
OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEART OF THE CLOSED LOW
PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS. THE WILDCARD WILL THEN
BE HOW MUCH OCCURS IN NEPA WITH SOME DRYING NOTED IN THE MODELS
AND A DEPARTURE OF UPR LEVEL FORCING. BOTTOM LINE IS...THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE TODAY BUT THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ONLY BY A SMALL MARGIN TODAY FROM
CURRENT READINGS WITH MID 50S ABOUT ALL WE CAN MUSTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER DETAILS CONTINUES FOR THE
REST OF THIS PERIOD AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS
EAST. THE MODEL SUITES ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DESPITE
HAVING TO DEAL WITH A CUTOFF SYSTEM. THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE
FORECAST IS TO SHIFT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES AS THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...AND SUPPORTING S/WV TROFS
ROTATE AROUND THE STORM. IT DOES SEEM THAT MOST OF THE NEEDED
FACTORS COME TOGETHER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
FOR A GOOD PERIOD OF RAIN EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND WE WILL
FOCUS OUR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THAT TIME...BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AT ANY TIME.

HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES A BIT GIVEN PROLONGED CLOUD COVER...RAIN
AND LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE EXPECTED. LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DIP TO THE MID 40S AT NIGHT...AND RISE ONLY TO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ONLY OTHER FACTOR OF INTEREST WILL BE A DEVELOPING N-NW BREEZE
OF 10-20 MPH FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEEPENS
AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORENING TDA AS LOW PRES SLIDES SEWD ACRS THE
BGM FCST AREA. GNRLY VFR EARLY THIS MRNG WITH SCT -SHRA MAINLY
ACRS CNTRL NY. LOWER CIGS WILL DVLP THIS AFTN AS LOW PRES SLIDES
SEWD BUT TIMING OF THE LOWER CIGS IS A DIFFICULT FCST. WE ARE
DELAYING THE ONSET OF WDSPRD MVFR AT ITH/ELM/SYR/ELM UNTIL LATER
THIS AFTN...ALTHO BRIEF MVFR IS PSBL THIS MRNG IN -SHRA. MVFR SHUD
GET INTO NE PA BY EVNG. WDSPRD MVFR/PATCHY IFR TNGT DUE TO CIGS/BR
AND SHRA. WINDS ON THE LGT AND VAR SIDE THIS MRNG...BECMG NRLY TO
NELY LATE TDA AND OVRNGT AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 211045
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST...AND BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. COOLER THAN
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES THIS MORNING FOR POSITION AND
TIMING OF WET VS DRY AREAS ON THE CURRENT RADAR AND EXPECTED SHORT
TERM TRENDS OF THE MESOSCALE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY MODELS WHICH
ILLUSTRATE SHOWERS BRIEFLY ENDING OVER EASTERN AREAS...BEFORE
FILLING IN AGAIN AS BAND OF RAIN DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW DRIFTS FROM WESTERN NY TO SOUTHERN PA
TODAY. THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY COMPLEX IN REGARD TO POSITION AND
TIMING OF ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CNY/NEPA. INITIALLY...PERSISTENCE
SHOULD RULE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CONTINUING RAIN ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY THIS MORNING. A MINOR IMPULSE
EJECTING ACROSS PA WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA WITH A
RELATIVE MIN OF ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF CNY EARLY. AS THE ENTIRE LOW
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP SOUTH ACROSS MORE
OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEART OF THE CLOSED LOW
PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS. THE WILDCARD WILL THEN
BE HOW MUCH OCCURS IN NEPA WITH SOME DRYING NOTED IN THE MODELS
AND A DEPARTURE OF UPR LEVEL FORCING. BOTTOM LINE IS...THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE TODAY BUT THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ONLY BY A SMALL MARGIN TODAY FROM
CURRENT READINGS WITH MID 50S ABOUT ALL WE CAN MUSTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER DETAILS CONTINUES FOR THE
REST OF THIS PERIOD AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS
EAST. THE MODEL SUITES ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DESPITE
HAVING TO DEAL WITH A CUTOFF SYSTEM. THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE
FORECAST IS TO SHIFT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES AS THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...AND SUPPORTING S/WV TROFS
ROTATE AROUND THE STORM. IT DOES SEEM THAT MOST OF THE NEEDED
FACTORS COME TOGETHER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
FOR A GOOD PERIOD OF RAIN EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND WE WILL
FOCUS OUR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THAT TIME...BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AT ANY TIME.

HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES A BIT GIVEN PROLONGED CLOUD COVER...RAIN
AND LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE EXPECTED. LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DIP TO THE MID 40S AT NIGHT...AND RISE ONLY TO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ONLY OTHER FACTOR OF INTEREST WILL BE A DEVELOPING N-NW BREEZE
OF 10-20 MPH FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEEPENS
AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORENING TDA AS LOW PRES SLIDES SEWD ACRS THE
BGM FCST AREA. GNRLY VFR EARLY THIS MRNG WITH SCT -SHRA MAINLY
ACRS CNTRL NY. LOWER CIGS WILL DVLP THIS AFTN AS LOW PRES SLIDES
SEWD BUT TIMING OF THE LOWER CIGS IS A DIFFICULT FCST. WE ARE
DELAYING THE ONSET OF WDSPRD MVFR AT ITH/ELM/SYR/ELM UNTIL LATER
THIS AFTN...ALTHO BRIEF MVFR IS PSBL THIS MRNG IN -SHRA. MVFR SHUD
GET INTO NE PA BY EVNG. WDSPRD MVFR/PATCHY IFR TNGT DUE TO CIGS/BR
AND SHRA. WINDS ON THE LGT AND VAR SIDE THIS MRNG...BECMG NRLY TO
NELY LATE TDA AND OVRNGT AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 211041
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST...AND BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. COOLER THAN
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES THIS MORNING FOR POSITION AND
TIMING OF WET VS DRY AREAS ON THE CURRENT RADAR AND EXPECTED SHORT
TERM TRENDS OF THE MESOSCALE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY MODELS WHICH
ILLUSTRATE SHOWERS BRIEFLY ENDING OVER EASTERN AREAS...BEFORE
FILLING IN AGAIN AS BAND OF RAIN DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW DRIFTS FROM WESTERN NY TO SOUTHERN PA
TODAY. THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY COMPLEX IN REGARD TO POSITION AND
TIMING OF ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CNY/NEPA. INITIALLY...PERSISTENCE
SHOULD RULE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CONTINUING RAIN ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY THIS MORNING. A MINOR IMPULSE
EJECTING ACROSS PA WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA WITH A
RELATIVE MIN OF ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF CNY EARLY. AS THE ENTIRE LOW
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP SOUTH ACROSS MORE
OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEART OF THE CLOSED LOW
PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS. THE WILDCARD WILL THEN
BE HOW MUCH OCCURS IN NEPA WITH SOME DRYING NOTED IN THE MODELS
AND A DEPARTURE OF UPR LEVEL FORCING. BOTTOM LINE IS...THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE TODAY BUT THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ONLY BY A SMALL MARGIN TODAY FROM
CURRENT READINGS WITH MID 50S ABOUT ALL WE CAN MUSTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER DETAILS CONTINUES FOR THE
REST OF THIS PERIOD AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS
EAST. THE MODEL SUITES ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DESPITE
HAVING TO DEAL WITH A CUTOFF SYSTEM. THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE
FORECAST IS TO SHIFT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES AS THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...AND SUPPORTING S/WV TROFS
ROTATE AROUND THE STORM. IT DOES SEEM THAT MOST OF THE NEEDED
FACTORS COME TOGETHER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
FOR A GOOD PERIOD OF RAIN EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND WE WILL
FOCUS OUR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THAT TIME...BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AT ANY TIME.

HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES A BIT GIVEN PROLONGED CLOUD COVER...RAIN
AND LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE EXPECTED. LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DIP TO THE MID 40S AT NIGHT...AND RISE ONLY TO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ONLY OTHER FACTOR OF INTEREST WILL BE A DEVELOPING N-NW BREEZE
OF 10-20 MPH FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEEPENS
AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORENING THIS MRNG AND TDA AS LOW PRES SLIDES
SEWD ACRS THE BGM FCST AREA. GNRLY VFR EARLY THIS MRNG WITH SCT
-SHRA MAINLY ACRS CNTRL NY. LOWER CIGS WILL DVLP TDA AS LOW PRES
SLIDES SEWD BUT TIMING OF THE LOWER CIGS IS A DIFFICULT FCST. ATTM
WE ARE INDICATING MVFR CIGS TO DVLP AT ITH/ELM/SYR/ELM TWDS
DAYBREAK THEN SPREADING SEWD INTO NE PA BY MID/LATE AFTN...WITH WDSPRD
MVFR/PATCHY IFR TNGT DUE TO CIGS/BR AND SHRA. WINDS ON THE LGT
SIDE...BECMG NRLY TO NELY LATE TDA AND OVRNGT AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 211041
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST...AND BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. COOLER THAN
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES THIS MORNING FOR POSITION AND
TIMING OF WET VS DRY AREAS ON THE CURRENT RADAR AND EXPECTED SHORT
TERM TRENDS OF THE MESOSCALE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY MODELS WHICH
ILLUSTRATE SHOWERS BRIEFLY ENDING OVER EASTERN AREAS...BEFORE
FILLING IN AGAIN AS BAND OF RAIN DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW DRIFTS FROM WESTERN NY TO SOUTHERN PA
TODAY. THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY COMPLEX IN REGARD TO POSITION AND
TIMING OF ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CNY/NEPA. INITIALLY...PERSISTENCE
SHOULD RULE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CONTINUING RAIN ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY THIS MORNING. A MINOR IMPULSE
EJECTING ACROSS PA WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA WITH A
RELATIVE MIN OF ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF CNY EARLY. AS THE ENTIRE LOW
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP SOUTH ACROSS MORE
OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEART OF THE CLOSED LOW
PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS. THE WILDCARD WILL THEN
BE HOW MUCH OCCURS IN NEPA WITH SOME DRYING NOTED IN THE MODELS
AND A DEPARTURE OF UPR LEVEL FORCING. BOTTOM LINE IS...THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE TODAY BUT THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ONLY BY A SMALL MARGIN TODAY FROM
CURRENT READINGS WITH MID 50S ABOUT ALL WE CAN MUSTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER DETAILS CONTINUES FOR THE
REST OF THIS PERIOD AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS
EAST. THE MODEL SUITES ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DESPITE
HAVING TO DEAL WITH A CUTOFF SYSTEM. THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE
FORECAST IS TO SHIFT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES AS THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...AND SUPPORTING S/WV TROFS
ROTATE AROUND THE STORM. IT DOES SEEM THAT MOST OF THE NEEDED
FACTORS COME TOGETHER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
FOR A GOOD PERIOD OF RAIN EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND WE WILL
FOCUS OUR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THAT TIME...BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AT ANY TIME.

HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES A BIT GIVEN PROLONGED CLOUD COVER...RAIN
AND LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE EXPECTED. LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DIP TO THE MID 40S AT NIGHT...AND RISE ONLY TO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ONLY OTHER FACTOR OF INTEREST WILL BE A DEVELOPING N-NW BREEZE
OF 10-20 MPH FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEEPENS
AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORENING THIS MRNG AND TDA AS LOW PRES SLIDES
SEWD ACRS THE BGM FCST AREA. GNRLY VFR EARLY THIS MRNG WITH SCT
-SHRA MAINLY ACRS CNTRL NY. LOWER CIGS WILL DVLP TDA AS LOW PRES
SLIDES SEWD BUT TIMING OF THE LOWER CIGS IS A DIFFICULT FCST. ATTM
WE ARE INDICATING MVFR CIGS TO DVLP AT ITH/ELM/SYR/ELM TWDS
DAYBREAK THEN SPREADING SEWD INTO NE PA BY MID/LATE AFTN...WITH WDSPRD
MVFR/PATCHY IFR TNGT DUE TO CIGS/BR AND SHRA. WINDS ON THE LGT
SIDE...BECMG NRLY TO NELY LATE TDA AND OVRNGT AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 211041
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST...AND BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. COOLER THAN
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES THIS MORNING FOR POSITION AND
TIMING OF WET VS DRY AREAS ON THE CURRENT RADAR AND EXPECTED SHORT
TERM TRENDS OF THE MESOSCALE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY MODELS WHICH
ILLUSTRATE SHOWERS BRIEFLY ENDING OVER EASTERN AREAS...BEFORE
FILLING IN AGAIN AS BAND OF RAIN DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW DRIFTS FROM WESTERN NY TO SOUTHERN PA
TODAY. THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY COMPLEX IN REGARD TO POSITION AND
TIMING OF ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CNY/NEPA. INITIALLY...PERSISTENCE
SHOULD RULE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CONTINUING RAIN ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY THIS MORNING. A MINOR IMPULSE
EJECTING ACROSS PA WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA WITH A
RELATIVE MIN OF ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF CNY EARLY. AS THE ENTIRE LOW
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP SOUTH ACROSS MORE
OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEART OF THE CLOSED LOW
PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS. THE WILDCARD WILL THEN
BE HOW MUCH OCCURS IN NEPA WITH SOME DRYING NOTED IN THE MODELS
AND A DEPARTURE OF UPR LEVEL FORCING. BOTTOM LINE IS...THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE TODAY BUT THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ONLY BY A SMALL MARGIN TODAY FROM
CURRENT READINGS WITH MID 50S ABOUT ALL WE CAN MUSTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER DETAILS CONTINUES FOR THE
REST OF THIS PERIOD AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS
EAST. THE MODEL SUITES ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DESPITE
HAVING TO DEAL WITH A CUTOFF SYSTEM. THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE
FORECAST IS TO SHIFT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES AS THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...AND SUPPORTING S/WV TROFS
ROTATE AROUND THE STORM. IT DOES SEEM THAT MOST OF THE NEEDED
FACTORS COME TOGETHER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
FOR A GOOD PERIOD OF RAIN EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND WE WILL
FOCUS OUR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THAT TIME...BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AT ANY TIME.

HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES A BIT GIVEN PROLONGED CLOUD COVER...RAIN
AND LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE EXPECTED. LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DIP TO THE MID 40S AT NIGHT...AND RISE ONLY TO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ONLY OTHER FACTOR OF INTEREST WILL BE A DEVELOPING N-NW BREEZE
OF 10-20 MPH FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEEPENS
AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORENING THIS MRNG AND TDA AS LOW PRES SLIDES
SEWD ACRS THE BGM FCST AREA. GNRLY VFR EARLY THIS MRNG WITH SCT
-SHRA MAINLY ACRS CNTRL NY. LOWER CIGS WILL DVLP TDA AS LOW PRES
SLIDES SEWD BUT TIMING OF THE LOWER CIGS IS A DIFFICULT FCST. ATTM
WE ARE INDICATING MVFR CIGS TO DVLP AT ITH/ELM/SYR/ELM TWDS
DAYBREAK THEN SPREADING SEWD INTO NE PA BY MID/LATE AFTN...WITH WDSPRD
MVFR/PATCHY IFR TNGT DUE TO CIGS/BR AND SHRA. WINDS ON THE LGT
SIDE...BECMG NRLY TO NELY LATE TDA AND OVRNGT AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 211041
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST...AND BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. COOLER THAN
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES THIS MORNING FOR POSITION AND
TIMING OF WET VS DRY AREAS ON THE CURRENT RADAR AND EXPECTED SHORT
TERM TRENDS OF THE MESOSCALE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY MODELS WHICH
ILLUSTRATE SHOWERS BRIEFLY ENDING OVER EASTERN AREAS...BEFORE
FILLING IN AGAIN AS BAND OF RAIN DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW DRIFTS FROM WESTERN NY TO SOUTHERN PA
TODAY. THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY COMPLEX IN REGARD TO POSITION AND
TIMING OF ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CNY/NEPA. INITIALLY...PERSISTENCE
SHOULD RULE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CONTINUING RAIN ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY THIS MORNING. A MINOR IMPULSE
EJECTING ACROSS PA WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA WITH A
RELATIVE MIN OF ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF CNY EARLY. AS THE ENTIRE LOW
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP SOUTH ACROSS MORE
OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEART OF THE CLOSED LOW
PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS. THE WILDCARD WILL THEN
BE HOW MUCH OCCURS IN NEPA WITH SOME DRYING NOTED IN THE MODELS
AND A DEPARTURE OF UPR LEVEL FORCING. BOTTOM LINE IS...THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE TODAY BUT THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ONLY BY A SMALL MARGIN TODAY FROM
CURRENT READINGS WITH MID 50S ABOUT ALL WE CAN MUSTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER DETAILS CONTINUES FOR THE
REST OF THIS PERIOD AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS
EAST. THE MODEL SUITES ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DESPITE
HAVING TO DEAL WITH A CUTOFF SYSTEM. THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE
FORECAST IS TO SHIFT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES AS THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...AND SUPPORTING S/WV TROFS
ROTATE AROUND THE STORM. IT DOES SEEM THAT MOST OF THE NEEDED
FACTORS COME TOGETHER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
FOR A GOOD PERIOD OF RAIN EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND WE WILL
FOCUS OUR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THAT TIME...BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AT ANY TIME.

HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES A BIT GIVEN PROLONGED CLOUD COVER...RAIN
AND LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE EXPECTED. LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DIP TO THE MID 40S AT NIGHT...AND RISE ONLY TO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ONLY OTHER FACTOR OF INTEREST WILL BE A DEVELOPING N-NW BREEZE
OF 10-20 MPH FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEEPENS
AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORENING THIS MRNG AND TDA AS LOW PRES SLIDES
SEWD ACRS THE BGM FCST AREA. GNRLY VFR EARLY THIS MRNG WITH SCT
-SHRA MAINLY ACRS CNTRL NY. LOWER CIGS WILL DVLP TDA AS LOW PRES
SLIDES SEWD BUT TIMING OF THE LOWER CIGS IS A DIFFICULT FCST. ATTM
WE ARE INDICATING MVFR CIGS TO DVLP AT ITH/ELM/SYR/ELM TWDS
DAYBREAK THEN SPREADING SEWD INTO NE PA BY MID/LATE AFTN...WITH WDSPRD
MVFR/PATCHY IFR TNGT DUE TO CIGS/BR AND SHRA. WINDS ON THE LGT
SIDE...BECMG NRLY TO NELY LATE TDA AND OVRNGT AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 210737
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
337 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST...AND BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. COOLER THAN
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW DRIFTS FROM WESTERN NY TO SOUTHERN PA
TODAY. THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY COMPLEX IN REGARD TO POSITION AND
TIMING OF ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CNY/NEPA. INITIALLY...PERSISTENCE
SHOULD RULE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CONTINUING RAIN ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY THIS MORNING. A MINOR IMPULSE
EJECTING ACROSS PA WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA WITH A
RELATIVE MIN OF ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF CNY EARLY. AS THE ENTIRE LOW
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP SOUTH ACROSS MORE
OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEART OF THE CLOSED LOW
PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS. THE WILDCARD WILL THEN
BE HOW MUCH OCCURS IN NEPA WITH SOME DRYING NOTED IN THE MODELS
AND A DEPARTURE OF UPR LEVEL FORCING. BOTTOM LINE IS...THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE TODAY BUT THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ONLY BY A SMALL MARGIN TODAY FROM
CURRENT READINGS WITH MID 50S ABOUT ALL WE CAN MUSTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER DETAILS CONTINUES FOR THE
REST OF THIS PERIOD AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS
EAST. THE MODEL SUITES ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DESPITE
HAVING TO DEAL WITH A CUTOFF SYSTEM. THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE
FORECAST IS TO SHIFT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES AS THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...AND SUPPORTING S/WV TROFS
ROTATE AROUND THE STORM. IT DOES SEEM THAT MOST OF THE NEEDED
FACTORS COME TOGETHER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
FOR A GOOD PERIOD OF RAIN EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND WE WILL
FOCUS OUR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THAT TIME...BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AT ANY TIME.

HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES A BIT GIVEN PROLONGED CLOUD COVER...RAIN
AND LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE EXPECTED. LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DIP TO THE MID 40S AT NIGHT...AND RISE ONLY TO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ONLY OTHER FACTOR OF INTEREST WILL BE A DEVELOPING N-NW BREEZE
OF 10-20 MPH FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEEPENS
AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORENING THIS MRNG AND TDA AS LOW PRES SLIDES
SEWD ACRS THE BGM FCST AREA. GNRLY VFR EARLY THIS MRNG WITH SCT
-SHRA MAINLY ACRS CNTRL NY. LOWER CIGS WILL DVLP TDA AS LOW PRES
SLIDES SEWD BUT TIMING OF THE LOWER CIGS IS A DIFFICULT FCST. ATTM
WE ARE INDICATING MVFR CIGS TO DVLP AT ITH/ELM/SYR/ELM TWDS
DAYBREAK THEN SPREADING SEWD INTO NE PA BY MID/LATE AFTN...WITH WDSPRD
MVFR/PATCHY IFR TNGT DUE TO CIGS/BR AND SHRA. WINDS ON THE LGT
SIDE...BECMG NRLY TO NELY LATE TDA AND OVRNGT AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 210737
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
337 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST...AND BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. COOLER THAN
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW DRIFTS FROM WESTERN NY TO SOUTHERN PA
TODAY. THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY COMPLEX IN REGARD TO POSITION AND
TIMING OF ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CNY/NEPA. INITIALLY...PERSISTENCE
SHOULD RULE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CONTINUING RAIN ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY THIS MORNING. A MINOR IMPULSE
EJECTING ACROSS PA WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA WITH A
RELATIVE MIN OF ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF CNY EARLY. AS THE ENTIRE LOW
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP SOUTH ACROSS MORE
OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEART OF THE CLOSED LOW
PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS. THE WILDCARD WILL THEN
BE HOW MUCH OCCURS IN NEPA WITH SOME DRYING NOTED IN THE MODELS
AND A DEPARTURE OF UPR LEVEL FORCING. BOTTOM LINE IS...THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE TODAY BUT THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ONLY BY A SMALL MARGIN TODAY FROM
CURRENT READINGS WITH MID 50S ABOUT ALL WE CAN MUSTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER DETAILS CONTINUES FOR THE
REST OF THIS PERIOD AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS
EAST. THE MODEL SUITES ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DESPITE
HAVING TO DEAL WITH A CUTOFF SYSTEM. THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE
FORECAST IS TO SHIFT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES AS THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...AND SUPPORTING S/WV TROFS
ROTATE AROUND THE STORM. IT DOES SEEM THAT MOST OF THE NEEDED
FACTORS COME TOGETHER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
FOR A GOOD PERIOD OF RAIN EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND WE WILL
FOCUS OUR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THAT TIME...BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AT ANY TIME.

HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES A BIT GIVEN PROLONGED CLOUD COVER...RAIN
AND LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE EXPECTED. LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DIP TO THE MID 40S AT NIGHT...AND RISE ONLY TO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ONLY OTHER FACTOR OF INTEREST WILL BE A DEVELOPING N-NW BREEZE
OF 10-20 MPH FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEEPENS
AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORENING THIS MRNG AND TDA AS LOW PRES SLIDES
SEWD ACRS THE BGM FCST AREA. GNRLY VFR EARLY THIS MRNG WITH SCT
-SHRA MAINLY ACRS CNTRL NY. LOWER CIGS WILL DVLP TDA AS LOW PRES
SLIDES SEWD BUT TIMING OF THE LOWER CIGS IS A DIFFICULT FCST. ATTM
WE ARE INDICATING MVFR CIGS TO DVLP AT ITH/ELM/SYR/ELM TWDS
DAYBREAK THEN SPREADING SEWD INTO NE PA BY MID/LATE AFTN...WITH WDSPRD
MVFR/PATCHY IFR TNGT DUE TO CIGS/BR AND SHRA. WINDS ON THE LGT
SIDE...BECMG NRLY TO NELY LATE TDA AND OVRNGT AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 210543
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND BE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL RAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...AT 01Z SFC LOW PRES WAS LOCATED NEAR TORONTO WITH
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN NY SOUTH TO WESTERN PA/EASTERN OH. H5 SHORT WAVE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND EVENTUALLY
CUTOFF OVER LAKE ERIE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED IT WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD. EASTERN PTN OF CWA ALSO HAS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
DEPICTED BY 10-15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND THE ALY 00Z
RAOB. CURRENT FORECAST OF POPS INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN/NRN CWA WITH CHC ELSEWHERE SEEMS ON
TARGET. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISC... SFC LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE IN OVRNGT AS THE UPR LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE CNTRL LAKES.
DURING THIS SLOW TRANSITION TO A CSTL SYSTEM...MODELS WEAKEN THE
PCPN AS AND KEEP MUCH OF WHAT FALLS WEST OF THE FCST AREA. THIS
MAKES SENSE AS SOME SLGT RDGG AND DRY AIR BLDS AHD OF THE
DEEPENING LOW.

SO...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVRNGT...LWR IN THE EAST AS MUCH OF THE
PCPN STREAMS TO OUR WEST IN THE DVLPG SWLY FLOW. LGT PCPN AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA AT TIMES THIS AFTN AND EVE CONTS TO BE PSBL
WITH THE WEAK WAA CONTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LOW OVER THE WRN END OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRFT SOUTH AND EAST AS
IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES...BUT MAKE IT NO FURTHER THAN THE NYC AREA
BY 00Z FRI. SFC LOW BREIFLY DEEPENS LATE WED AND EARLY THU BUT IN
GNRL THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV...JUST SLOW TO MOVE
AS IT CUTS OFF FROM THE WLYS.

PCPN WILL INITIALLY BE VERY LGT AND THE ATLANTIC INFLOW REMAINS
WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HWVR...THIS DEEPER MOISTURE IS EVENTUALLY
CAPTURED AND PULLED BACK TO THE WEST. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN
MAY END UP BEING THU AND THE NELY FLOW HAS PULLED SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN...AND WRMR AIR...BACK INTO THE AREA. QPF AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ESP THRU WED...DESPITE THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORENING THIS MRNG AND TDA AS LOW PRES SLIDES
SEWD ACRS THE BGM FCST AREA. GNRLY VFR EARLY THIS MRNG WITH SCT
-SHRA MAINLY ACRS CNTRL NY. LOWER CIGS WILL DVLP TDA AS LOW PRES
SLIDES SEWD BUT TIMING OF THE LOWER CIGS IS A DIFFICULT FCST. ATTM
WE ARE INDICATING MVFR CIGS TO DVLP AT ITH/ELM/SYR/ELM TWDS
DAYBREAK THEN SPREADING SEWD INTO NE PA BY MID/LATE AFTN...WITH WDSPRD
MVFR/PATCHY IFR TNGT DUE TO CIGS/BR AND SHRA. WINDS ON THE LGT
SIDE...BECMG NRLY TO NELY LATE TDA AND OVRNGT AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 210543
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND BE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL RAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...AT 01Z SFC LOW PRES WAS LOCATED NEAR TORONTO WITH
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN NY SOUTH TO WESTERN PA/EASTERN OH. H5 SHORT WAVE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND EVENTUALLY
CUTOFF OVER LAKE ERIE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED IT WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD. EASTERN PTN OF CWA ALSO HAS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
DEPICTED BY 10-15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND THE ALY 00Z
RAOB. CURRENT FORECAST OF POPS INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN/NRN CWA WITH CHC ELSEWHERE SEEMS ON
TARGET. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISC... SFC LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE IN OVRNGT AS THE UPR LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE CNTRL LAKES.
DURING THIS SLOW TRANSITION TO A CSTL SYSTEM...MODELS WEAKEN THE
PCPN AS AND KEEP MUCH OF WHAT FALLS WEST OF THE FCST AREA. THIS
MAKES SENSE AS SOME SLGT RDGG AND DRY AIR BLDS AHD OF THE
DEEPENING LOW.

SO...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVRNGT...LWR IN THE EAST AS MUCH OF THE
PCPN STREAMS TO OUR WEST IN THE DVLPG SWLY FLOW. LGT PCPN AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA AT TIMES THIS AFTN AND EVE CONTS TO BE PSBL
WITH THE WEAK WAA CONTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LOW OVER THE WRN END OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRFT SOUTH AND EAST AS
IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES...BUT MAKE IT NO FURTHER THAN THE NYC AREA
BY 00Z FRI. SFC LOW BREIFLY DEEPENS LATE WED AND EARLY THU BUT IN
GNRL THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV...JUST SLOW TO MOVE
AS IT CUTS OFF FROM THE WLYS.

PCPN WILL INITIALLY BE VERY LGT AND THE ATLANTIC INFLOW REMAINS
WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HWVR...THIS DEEPER MOISTURE IS EVENTUALLY
CAPTURED AND PULLED BACK TO THE WEST. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN
MAY END UP BEING THU AND THE NELY FLOW HAS PULLED SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN...AND WRMR AIR...BACK INTO THE AREA. QPF AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ESP THRU WED...DESPITE THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORENING THIS MRNG AND TDA AS LOW PRES SLIDES
SEWD ACRS THE BGM FCST AREA. GNRLY VFR EARLY THIS MRNG WITH SCT
-SHRA MAINLY ACRS CNTRL NY. LOWER CIGS WILL DVLP TDA AS LOW PRES
SLIDES SEWD BUT TIMING OF THE LOWER CIGS IS A DIFFICULT FCST. ATTM
WE ARE INDICATING MVFR CIGS TO DVLP AT ITH/ELM/SYR/ELM TWDS
DAYBREAK THEN SPREADING SEWD INTO NE PA BY MID/LATE AFTN...WITH WDSPRD
MVFR/PATCHY IFR TNGT DUE TO CIGS/BR AND SHRA. WINDS ON THE LGT
SIDE...BECMG NRLY TO NELY LATE TDA AND OVRNGT AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 210150
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
950 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND BE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL RAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...AT 01Z SFC LOW PRES WAS LOCATED NEAR TORONTO WITH
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN NY SOUTH TO WESTERN PA/EASTERN OH. H5 SHORT WAVE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND EVENTUALLY
CUTOFF OVER LAKE ERIE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED IT WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD. EASTERN PTN OF CWA ALSO HAS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
DEPICTED BY 10-15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND THE ALY 00Z
RAOB. CURRENT FORECAST OF POPS INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN/NRN CWA WITH CHC ELSEWHERE SEEMS ON
TARGET. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISC... SFC LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE IN OVRNGT AS THE UPR LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE CNTRL LAKES.
DURING THIS SLOW TRANSITION TO A CSTL SYSTEM...MODELS WEAKEN THE
PCPN AS AND KEEP MUCH OF WHAT FALLS WEST OF THE FCST AREA. THIS
MAKES SENSE AS SOME SLGT RDGG AND DRY AIR BLDS AHD OF THE
DEEPENING LOW.

SO...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVRNGT...LWR IN THE EAST AS MUCH OF THE
PCPN STREAMS TO OUR WEST IN THE DVLPG SWLY FLOW. LGT PCPN AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA AT TIMES THIS AFTN AND EVE CONTS TO BE PSBL
WITH THE WEAK WAA CONTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LOW OVER THE WRN END OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRFT SOUTH AND EAST AS
IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES...BUT MAKE IT NO FURTHER THAN THE NYC AREA
BY 00Z FRI. SFC LOW BREIFLY DEEPENS LATE WED AND EARLY THU BUT IN
GNRL THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV...JUST SLOW TO MOVE
AS IT CUTS OFF FROM THE WLYS.

PCPN WILL INITIALLY BE VERY LGT AND THE ATLANTIC INFLOW REMAINS
WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HWVR...THIS DEEPER MOISTURE IS EVENTUALLY
CAPTURED AND PULLED BACK TO THE WEST. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN
MAY END UP BEING THU AND THE NELY FLOW HAS PULLED SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN...AND WRMR AIR...BACK INTO THE AREA. QPF AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ESP THRU WED...DESPITE THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS STORM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 7Z AND 12Z, FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN ENOUGH TO CAUSE MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY, INTO AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE CEILINGS MAY LIFT TO VFR BRIEFLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, AS DRIER AIR COMES IN FROM THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...

TUES NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 210150
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
950 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND BE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL RAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...AT 01Z SFC LOW PRES WAS LOCATED NEAR TORONTO WITH
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN NY SOUTH TO WESTERN PA/EASTERN OH. H5 SHORT WAVE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND EVENTUALLY
CUTOFF OVER LAKE ERIE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED IT WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD. EASTERN PTN OF CWA ALSO HAS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
DEPICTED BY 10-15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND THE ALY 00Z
RAOB. CURRENT FORECAST OF POPS INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN/NRN CWA WITH CHC ELSEWHERE SEEMS ON
TARGET. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISC... SFC LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE IN OVRNGT AS THE UPR LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE CNTRL LAKES.
DURING THIS SLOW TRANSITION TO A CSTL SYSTEM...MODELS WEAKEN THE
PCPN AS AND KEEP MUCH OF WHAT FALLS WEST OF THE FCST AREA. THIS
MAKES SENSE AS SOME SLGT RDGG AND DRY AIR BLDS AHD OF THE
DEEPENING LOW.

SO...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVRNGT...LWR IN THE EAST AS MUCH OF THE
PCPN STREAMS TO OUR WEST IN THE DVLPG SWLY FLOW. LGT PCPN AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA AT TIMES THIS AFTN AND EVE CONTS TO BE PSBL
WITH THE WEAK WAA CONTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LOW OVER THE WRN END OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRFT SOUTH AND EAST AS
IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES...BUT MAKE IT NO FURTHER THAN THE NYC AREA
BY 00Z FRI. SFC LOW BREIFLY DEEPENS LATE WED AND EARLY THU BUT IN
GNRL THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV...JUST SLOW TO MOVE
AS IT CUTS OFF FROM THE WLYS.

PCPN WILL INITIALLY BE VERY LGT AND THE ATLANTIC INFLOW REMAINS
WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HWVR...THIS DEEPER MOISTURE IS EVENTUALLY
CAPTURED AND PULLED BACK TO THE WEST. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN
MAY END UP BEING THU AND THE NELY FLOW HAS PULLED SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN...AND WRMR AIR...BACK INTO THE AREA. QPF AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ESP THRU WED...DESPITE THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS STORM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 7Z AND 12Z, FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN ENOUGH TO CAUSE MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY, INTO AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE CEILINGS MAY LIFT TO VFR BRIEFLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, AS DRIER AIR COMES IN FROM THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...

TUES NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 210150
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
950 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND BE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL RAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...AT 01Z SFC LOW PRES WAS LOCATED NEAR TORONTO WITH
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN NY SOUTH TO WESTERN PA/EASTERN OH. H5 SHORT WAVE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND EVENTUALLY
CUTOFF OVER LAKE ERIE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED IT WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD. EASTERN PTN OF CWA ALSO HAS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
DEPICTED BY 10-15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND THE ALY 00Z
RAOB. CURRENT FORECAST OF POPS INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN/NRN CWA WITH CHC ELSEWHERE SEEMS ON
TARGET. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISC... SFC LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE IN OVRNGT AS THE UPR LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE CNTRL LAKES.
DURING THIS SLOW TRANSITION TO A CSTL SYSTEM...MODELS WEAKEN THE
PCPN AS AND KEEP MUCH OF WHAT FALLS WEST OF THE FCST AREA. THIS
MAKES SENSE AS SOME SLGT RDGG AND DRY AIR BLDS AHD OF THE
DEEPENING LOW.

SO...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVRNGT...LWR IN THE EAST AS MUCH OF THE
PCPN STREAMS TO OUR WEST IN THE DVLPG SWLY FLOW. LGT PCPN AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA AT TIMES THIS AFTN AND EVE CONTS TO BE PSBL
WITH THE WEAK WAA CONTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LOW OVER THE WRN END OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRFT SOUTH AND EAST AS
IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES...BUT MAKE IT NO FURTHER THAN THE NYC AREA
BY 00Z FRI. SFC LOW BREIFLY DEEPENS LATE WED AND EARLY THU BUT IN
GNRL THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV...JUST SLOW TO MOVE
AS IT CUTS OFF FROM THE WLYS.

PCPN WILL INITIALLY BE VERY LGT AND THE ATLANTIC INFLOW REMAINS
WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HWVR...THIS DEEPER MOISTURE IS EVENTUALLY
CAPTURED AND PULLED BACK TO THE WEST. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN
MAY END UP BEING THU AND THE NELY FLOW HAS PULLED SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN...AND WRMR AIR...BACK INTO THE AREA. QPF AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ESP THRU WED...DESPITE THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS STORM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 7Z AND 12Z, FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN ENOUGH TO CAUSE MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY, INTO AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE CEILINGS MAY LIFT TO VFR BRIEFLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, AS DRIER AIR COMES IN FROM THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...

TUES NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 210150
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
950 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND BE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL RAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...AT 01Z SFC LOW PRES WAS LOCATED NEAR TORONTO WITH
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN NY SOUTH TO WESTERN PA/EASTERN OH. H5 SHORT WAVE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND EVENTUALLY
CUTOFF OVER LAKE ERIE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED IT WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD. EASTERN PTN OF CWA ALSO HAS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
DEPICTED BY 10-15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND THE ALY 00Z
RAOB. CURRENT FORECAST OF POPS INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN/NRN CWA WITH CHC ELSEWHERE SEEMS ON
TARGET. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISC... SFC LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE IN OVRNGT AS THE UPR LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE CNTRL LAKES.
DURING THIS SLOW TRANSITION TO A CSTL SYSTEM...MODELS WEAKEN THE
PCPN AS AND KEEP MUCH OF WHAT FALLS WEST OF THE FCST AREA. THIS
MAKES SENSE AS SOME SLGT RDGG AND DRY AIR BLDS AHD OF THE
DEEPENING LOW.

SO...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVRNGT...LWR IN THE EAST AS MUCH OF THE
PCPN STREAMS TO OUR WEST IN THE DVLPG SWLY FLOW. LGT PCPN AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA AT TIMES THIS AFTN AND EVE CONTS TO BE PSBL
WITH THE WEAK WAA CONTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LOW OVER THE WRN END OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRFT SOUTH AND EAST AS
IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES...BUT MAKE IT NO FURTHER THAN THE NYC AREA
BY 00Z FRI. SFC LOW BREIFLY DEEPENS LATE WED AND EARLY THU BUT IN
GNRL THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV...JUST SLOW TO MOVE
AS IT CUTS OFF FROM THE WLYS.

PCPN WILL INITIALLY BE VERY LGT AND THE ATLANTIC INFLOW REMAINS
WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HWVR...THIS DEEPER MOISTURE IS EVENTUALLY
CAPTURED AND PULLED BACK TO THE WEST. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN
MAY END UP BEING THU AND THE NELY FLOW HAS PULLED SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN...AND WRMR AIR...BACK INTO THE AREA. QPF AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ESP THRU WED...DESPITE THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS STORM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 7Z AND 12Z, FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN ENOUGH TO CAUSE MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY, INTO AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE CEILINGS MAY LIFT TO VFR BRIEFLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, AS DRIER AIR COMES IN FROM THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...

TUES NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 210019
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND BE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL RAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKS. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN OVRNGT AS
THE UPR LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE CNTRL LAKES. DURING THIS SLOW
TRANSITION TO A CSTL SYSTEM...MODELS WEAKEN THE PCPN AS AND KEEP
MUCH OF WHAT FALLS WEST OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE AS SOME
SLGT RDGG AND DRY AIR BLDS AHD OF THE DEEPENING LOW.

SO...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVRNGT...LWR IN THE EAST AS MUCH OF THE
PCPN STREAMS TO OUR WEST IN THE DVLPG SWLY FLOW. LGT PCPN AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA AT TIMES THIS AFTN AND EVE CONTS TO BE PSBL
WITH THE WEAK WAA CONTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LOW OVER THE WRN END OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRFT SOUTH AND EAST AS
IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES...BUT MAKE IT NO FURTHER THAN THE NYC AREA
BY 00Z FRI. SFC LOW BREIFLY DEEPENS LATE WED AND EARLY THU BUT IN
GNRL THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV...JUST SLOW TO MOVE
AS IT CUTS OFF FROM THE WLYS.

PCPN WILL INITIALLY BE VERY LGT AND THE ATLANTIC INFLOW REMAINS
WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HWVR...THIS DEEPER MOISTURE IS EVENTUALLY
CAPTURED AND PULLED BACK TO THE WEST. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN
MAY END UP BEING THU AND THE NELY FLOW HAS PULLED SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN...AND WRMR AIR...BACK INTO THE AREA. QPF AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ESP THRU WED...DESPITE THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS STORM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 7Z AND 12Z, FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN ENOUGH TO CAUSE MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY, INTO AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE CEILINGS MAY LIFT TO VFR BRIEFLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, AS DRIER AIR COMES IN FROM THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...

TUES NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 210019
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND BE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL RAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKS. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN OVRNGT AS
THE UPR LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE CNTRL LAKES. DURING THIS SLOW
TRANSITION TO A CSTL SYSTEM...MODELS WEAKEN THE PCPN AS AND KEEP
MUCH OF WHAT FALLS WEST OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE AS SOME
SLGT RDGG AND DRY AIR BLDS AHD OF THE DEEPENING LOW.

SO...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVRNGT...LWR IN THE EAST AS MUCH OF THE
PCPN STREAMS TO OUR WEST IN THE DVLPG SWLY FLOW. LGT PCPN AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA AT TIMES THIS AFTN AND EVE CONTS TO BE PSBL
WITH THE WEAK WAA CONTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LOW OVER THE WRN END OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRFT SOUTH AND EAST AS
IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES...BUT MAKE IT NO FURTHER THAN THE NYC AREA
BY 00Z FRI. SFC LOW BREIFLY DEEPENS LATE WED AND EARLY THU BUT IN
GNRL THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV...JUST SLOW TO MOVE
AS IT CUTS OFF FROM THE WLYS.

PCPN WILL INITIALLY BE VERY LGT AND THE ATLANTIC INFLOW REMAINS
WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HWVR...THIS DEEPER MOISTURE IS EVENTUALLY
CAPTURED AND PULLED BACK TO THE WEST. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN
MAY END UP BEING THU AND THE NELY FLOW HAS PULLED SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN...AND WRMR AIR...BACK INTO THE AREA. QPF AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ESP THRU WED...DESPITE THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS STORM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 7Z AND 12Z, FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN ENOUGH TO CAUSE MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY, INTO AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE CEILINGS MAY LIFT TO VFR BRIEFLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, AS DRIER AIR COMES IN FROM THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...

TUES NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 201847
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
247 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND BE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL RAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKS. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SFC LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN OVRNGT AS
THE UPR LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE CNTRL LAKES. DURING THIS SLOW
TRANSITION TO A CSTL SYSTEM...MODELS WEAKEN THE PCPN AS AND KEEP
MUCH OF WHAT FALLS WEST OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE AS SOME
SLGT RDGG AND DRY AIR BLDS AHD OF THE DEEPENING LOW.

SO...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVRNGT...LWR IN THE EAST AS MUCH OF THE
PCPN STREAMS TO OUR WEST IN THE DVLPG SWLY FLOW. LGT PCPN AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA AT TIMES THIS AFTN AND EVE CONTS TO BE PSBL
WITH THE WEAK WAA CONTS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

UPR LOW OVER THE WRN END OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRFT SOUTH AND EAST AS
IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES...BUT MAKE IT NO FURTHER THAN THE NYC AREA
BY 00Z FRI. SFC LOW BREIFLY DEEPENS LATE WED AND EARLY THU BUT IN
GNRL THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV...JUST SLOW TO MOVE
AS IT CUTS OFF FROM THE WLYS.

PCPN WILL INITIALLY BE VERY LGT AND THE ATLANTIC INFLOW REMAINS
WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HWVR...THIS DEEPER MOISTURE IS EVENTUALLY
CAPTURED AND PULLED BACK TO THE WEST. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN
MAY END UP BEING THU AND THE NELY FLOW HAS PULLED SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN...AND WRMR AIR...BACK INTO THE AREA. QPF AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ESP THRU WED...DESPITE THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST 08Z TONIGHT. NEXT WV WL APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT WITH POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z AT RME,
SYR, ITH AND ELM. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF AT BGM UNTIL CLOSER
TO 08Z-12Z. ONCE STEADIER RAIN MOVES IN, EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS
TO FOLLOW. MVFR WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU 18Z TUESDAY.

DRAINAGE FLOW EXPECTED AT RME, SYR AND AVP WITH LGT/VRB ELSEWHERE.
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 3-8 KTS AFTER 12Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUES THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 201847
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
247 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND BE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL RAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKS. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SFC LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN OVRNGT AS
THE UPR LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE CNTRL LAKES. DURING THIS SLOW
TRANSITION TO A CSTL SYSTEM...MODELS WEAKEN THE PCPN AS AND KEEP
MUCH OF WHAT FALLS WEST OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE AS SOME
SLGT RDGG AND DRY AIR BLDS AHD OF THE DEEPENING LOW.

SO...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVRNGT...LWR IN THE EAST AS MUCH OF THE
PCPN STREAMS TO OUR WEST IN THE DVLPG SWLY FLOW. LGT PCPN AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA AT TIMES THIS AFTN AND EVE CONTS TO BE PSBL
WITH THE WEAK WAA CONTS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

UPR LOW OVER THE WRN END OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRFT SOUTH AND EAST AS
IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES...BUT MAKE IT NO FURTHER THAN THE NYC AREA
BY 00Z FRI. SFC LOW BREIFLY DEEPENS LATE WED AND EARLY THU BUT IN
GNRL THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV...JUST SLOW TO MOVE
AS IT CUTS OFF FROM THE WLYS.

PCPN WILL INITIALLY BE VERY LGT AND THE ATLANTIC INFLOW REMAINS
WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HWVR...THIS DEEPER MOISTURE IS EVENTUALLY
CAPTURED AND PULLED BACK TO THE WEST. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN
MAY END UP BEING THU AND THE NELY FLOW HAS PULLED SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN...AND WRMR AIR...BACK INTO THE AREA. QPF AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ESP THRU WED...DESPITE THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST 08Z TONIGHT. NEXT WV WL APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT WITH POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z AT RME,
SYR, ITH AND ELM. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF AT BGM UNTIL CLOSER
TO 08Z-12Z. ONCE STEADIER RAIN MOVES IN, EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS
TO FOLLOW. MVFR WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU 18Z TUESDAY.

DRAINAGE FLOW EXPECTED AT RME, SYR AND AVP WITH LGT/VRB ELSEWHERE.
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 3-8 KTS AFTER 12Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUES THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 201756
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM CENTERED IN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH RAIN. THE LOW WILL STAY ON THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY KEEPING PERIODS OF RAIN
OVER OUR AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...ADDED DRIZZLE TO MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE GRIDS AS
THE WAA HAS DVLPD SOME PTCHY VERY LGT RAIN THIS MRNG. HAVE ALSO
SLOWED THE WRM UP AS THE CLDS HAVE LIMITED THE SFC WRMG ESP IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER. NO OTR CHGS ATTM.


630 AM UPDATE...

JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPS AND CLOUDS. CLOUDY SKIES ALREADY
HERE BUT SOME OF THAT IS HIGH AND THIN. A THICKER MID DECK WILL BE
HERE BY THE END OF THE DAY. IN THE FINGER LAKES WITH THE MID DECK
TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S. ON THE OTHER END, LACKAWANNA AND
LUZERNE STILL DOWN AROUND FREEZING. THIS WILL END THE GROWING
SEASON THERE. PNS SENT TO THAT EFFECT. ONONDAGA TO YATES ONLY
COUNTIES LEFT AND THAT ONLY TO THE 25TH, WHICH IS 2 WEEKS AFTER
THE MEDIAN FIRST FALL FREEZE DATE.

330 AM UPDATE...

A SFC LOW OVER THE U P OF MI IS STRENGTHENING AND DROPPING SE
TOWARDS OUR CWA. THIS LOW IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THE
MOVEMENT IS SLOW SO TODAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS. WAA SO AFTN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...

COOL WET PERIOD AS THE SFC LOW AND TROF MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
CLOSE OFF JUST OFF THE NJ COAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. SLOW
MOVEMENT ONCE ON THE COAST SO CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE WRAPPED
COUNTER CLOCKWISE FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO NY/PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT BUT PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WILL KEEP
IT COOL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN ANY 24
PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE SO THAT BY TUESDAY IT
SHOULD BE RAINING EVERYWHERE. BEST CHC OF STEADY RAIN TUES AFTN
WITH SFC LOW PASSAGE. LATER IN SHORT TERM HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE SE ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST 08Z TONIGHT. NEXT WV WL APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT WITH POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z AT RME,
SYR, ITH AND ELM. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF AT BGM UNTIL CLOSER
TO 08Z-12Z. ONCE STEADIER RAIN MOVES IN, EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS
TO FOLLOW. MVFR WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU 18Z TUESDAY.

DRAINAGE FLOW EXPECTED AT RME, SYR AND AVP WITH LGT/VRB ELSEWHERE.
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 3-8 KTS AFTER 12Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUES THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/TAC
NEAR TERM...DGM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 201756
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM CENTERED IN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH RAIN. THE LOW WILL STAY ON THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY KEEPING PERIODS OF RAIN
OVER OUR AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...ADDED DRIZZLE TO MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE GRIDS AS
THE WAA HAS DVLPD SOME PTCHY VERY LGT RAIN THIS MRNG. HAVE ALSO
SLOWED THE WRM UP AS THE CLDS HAVE LIMITED THE SFC WRMG ESP IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER. NO OTR CHGS ATTM.


630 AM UPDATE...

JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPS AND CLOUDS. CLOUDY SKIES ALREADY
HERE BUT SOME OF THAT IS HIGH AND THIN. A THICKER MID DECK WILL BE
HERE BY THE END OF THE DAY. IN THE FINGER LAKES WITH THE MID DECK
TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S. ON THE OTHER END, LACKAWANNA AND
LUZERNE STILL DOWN AROUND FREEZING. THIS WILL END THE GROWING
SEASON THERE. PNS SENT TO THAT EFFECT. ONONDAGA TO YATES ONLY
COUNTIES LEFT AND THAT ONLY TO THE 25TH, WHICH IS 2 WEEKS AFTER
THE MEDIAN FIRST FALL FREEZE DATE.

330 AM UPDATE...

A SFC LOW OVER THE U P OF MI IS STRENGTHENING AND DROPPING SE
TOWARDS OUR CWA. THIS LOW IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THE
MOVEMENT IS SLOW SO TODAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS. WAA SO AFTN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...

COOL WET PERIOD AS THE SFC LOW AND TROF MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
CLOSE OFF JUST OFF THE NJ COAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. SLOW
MOVEMENT ONCE ON THE COAST SO CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE WRAPPED
COUNTER CLOCKWISE FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO NY/PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT BUT PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WILL KEEP
IT COOL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN ANY 24
PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE SO THAT BY TUESDAY IT
SHOULD BE RAINING EVERYWHERE. BEST CHC OF STEADY RAIN TUES AFTN
WITH SFC LOW PASSAGE. LATER IN SHORT TERM HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE SE ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST 08Z TONIGHT. NEXT WV WL APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT WITH POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z AT RME,
SYR, ITH AND ELM. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF AT BGM UNTIL CLOSER
TO 08Z-12Z. ONCE STEADIER RAIN MOVES IN, EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS
TO FOLLOW. MVFR WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU 18Z TUESDAY.

DRAINAGE FLOW EXPECTED AT RME, SYR AND AVP WITH LGT/VRB ELSEWHERE.
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 3-8 KTS AFTER 12Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUES THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/TAC
NEAR TERM...DGM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 201439
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1039 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM CENTERED IN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH RAIN. THE LOW WILL STAY ON THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY KEEPING PERIODS OF RAIN
OVER OUR AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1040 AM UPDATE...ADDED DRIZZLE TO MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE GRIDS AS
THE WAA HAS DVLPD SOME PTCHY VERY LGT RAIN THIS MRNG. HAVE ALSO
SLOWED THE WRM UP AS THE CLDS HAVE LIMITED THE SFC WRMG ESP IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER. NO OTR CHGS ATTM.


630 AM UPDATE...

JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPS AND CLOUDS. CLOUDY SKIES ALREADY
HERE BUT SOME OF THAT IS HIGH AND THIN. A THICKER MID DECK WILL BE
HERE BY THE END OF THE DAY. IN THE FINGER LAKES WITH THE MID DECK
TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S. ON THE OTHER END, LACKAWANNA AND
LUZERNE STILL DOWN AROUND FREEZING. THIS WILL END THE GROWING
SEASON THERE. PNS SENT TO THAT EFFECT. ONONDAGA TO YATES ONLY
COUNTIES LEFT AND THAT ONLY TO THE 25TH, WHICH IS 2 WEEKS AFTER
THE MEDIAN FIRST FALL FREEZE DATE.

330 AM UPDATE...

A SFC LOW OVER THE U P OF MI IS STRENGTHENING AND DROPPING SE
TOWARDS OUR CWA. THIS LOW IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THE
MOVEMENT IS SLOW SO TODAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS. WAA SO AFTN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...

COOL WET PERIOD AS THE SFC LOW AND TROF MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
CLOSE OFF JUST OFF THE NJ COAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. SLOW
MOVEMENT ONCE ON THE COAST SO CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE WRAPPED
COUNTER CLOCKWISE FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO NY/PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT BUT PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WILL KEEP
IT COOL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN ANY 24
PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE SO THAT BY TUESDAY IT
SHOULD BE RAINING EVERYWHERE. BEST CHC OF STEADY RAIN TUES AFTN
WITH SFC LOW PASSAGE. LATER IN SHORT TERM HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE SE ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LONG TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING AS 00Z
GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH OUR EXISTING GRIDDED FORECAST
AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. SOME DIFFERENCES STILL IN THE MODEL SUITE
WITH CLOSED LOW EXITING THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK WITH ECMWF
SLOWEST. A HAPPY MEDIUM SEEMS BEST RIGHT NOW...BUT GIVEN RELATIVE
BLOCKY NORTH ATLANTIC...A SLOWER SOLUTION COULD BE MORE CORRECT.
WE HAVE MODEST POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM TUES-THURS WITH A DRYING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SEEMS FINE FOR NOW. WITH CNY/NEPA
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE CLOSED LOW...WE MADE JUST SOME
ESOTERIC CHANGES TO MENTION MORE STRATIFORM TYPE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY...BUT GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S AT NIGHT TO MID
50S DURING THE DAY.

145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING BELOW FL100 TO AROUND FL050 BY EARLY EVENING.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN PASSING FIRST THROUGH THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIMITED AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z. MORE
RESTRICTIVE CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASING
COVERAGE OF RAIN.

WINDS S-SW 5-10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUES THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/TAC
NEAR TERM...DGM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB








000
FXUS61 KBGM 201439
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1039 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM CENTERED IN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH RAIN. THE LOW WILL STAY ON THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY KEEPING PERIODS OF RAIN
OVER OUR AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1040 AM UPDATE...ADDED DRIZZLE TO MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE GRIDS AS
THE WAA HAS DVLPD SOME PTCHY VERY LGT RAIN THIS MRNG. HAVE ALSO
SLOWED THE WRM UP AS THE CLDS HAVE LIMITED THE SFC WRMG ESP IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER. NO OTR CHGS ATTM.


630 AM UPDATE...

JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPS AND CLOUDS. CLOUDY SKIES ALREADY
HERE BUT SOME OF THAT IS HIGH AND THIN. A THICKER MID DECK WILL BE
HERE BY THE END OF THE DAY. IN THE FINGER LAKES WITH THE MID DECK
TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S. ON THE OTHER END, LACKAWANNA AND
LUZERNE STILL DOWN AROUND FREEZING. THIS WILL END THE GROWING
SEASON THERE. PNS SENT TO THAT EFFECT. ONONDAGA TO YATES ONLY
COUNTIES LEFT AND THAT ONLY TO THE 25TH, WHICH IS 2 WEEKS AFTER
THE MEDIAN FIRST FALL FREEZE DATE.

330 AM UPDATE...

A SFC LOW OVER THE U P OF MI IS STRENGTHENING AND DROPPING SE
TOWARDS OUR CWA. THIS LOW IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THE
MOVEMENT IS SLOW SO TODAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS. WAA SO AFTN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...

COOL WET PERIOD AS THE SFC LOW AND TROF MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
CLOSE OFF JUST OFF THE NJ COAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. SLOW
MOVEMENT ONCE ON THE COAST SO CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE WRAPPED
COUNTER CLOCKWISE FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO NY/PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT BUT PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WILL KEEP
IT COOL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN ANY 24
PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE SO THAT BY TUESDAY IT
SHOULD BE RAINING EVERYWHERE. BEST CHC OF STEADY RAIN TUES AFTN
WITH SFC LOW PASSAGE. LATER IN SHORT TERM HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE SE ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LONG TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING AS 00Z
GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH OUR EXISTING GRIDDED FORECAST
AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. SOME DIFFERENCES STILL IN THE MODEL SUITE
WITH CLOSED LOW EXITING THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK WITH ECMWF
SLOWEST. A HAPPY MEDIUM SEEMS BEST RIGHT NOW...BUT GIVEN RELATIVE
BLOCKY NORTH ATLANTIC...A SLOWER SOLUTION COULD BE MORE CORRECT.
WE HAVE MODEST POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM TUES-THURS WITH A DRYING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SEEMS FINE FOR NOW. WITH CNY/NEPA
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE CLOSED LOW...WE MADE JUST SOME
ESOTERIC CHANGES TO MENTION MORE STRATIFORM TYPE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY...BUT GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S AT NIGHT TO MID
50S DURING THE DAY.

145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING BELOW FL100 TO AROUND FL050 BY EARLY EVENING.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN PASSING FIRST THROUGH THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIMITED AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z. MORE
RESTRICTIVE CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASING
COVERAGE OF RAIN.

WINDS S-SW 5-10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUES THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/TAC
NEAR TERM...DGM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB







000
FXUS61 KBGM 201048
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM CENTERED IN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH RAIN. THE LOW WILL STAY ON THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY KEEPING PERIODS OF RAIN
OVER OUR AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...

JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPS AND CLOUDS. CLOUDY SKIES ALREADY
HERE BUT SOME OF THAT IS HIGH AND THIN. A THICKER MID DECK WILL BE
HERE BY THE END OF THE DAY. IN THE FINGER LAKES WITH THE MID DECK
TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S. ON THE OTHER END, LACKAWANNA AND
LUZERNE STILL DOWN AROUND FREEZING. THIS WILL END THE GROWING
SEASON THERE. PNS SENT TO THAT EFFECT. ONONDAGA TO YATES ONLY
COUNTIES LEFT AND THAT ONLY TO THE 25TH, WHICH IS 2 WEEKS AFTER
THE MEDIAN FIRST FALL FREEZE DATE.

330 AM UPDATE...

A SFC LOW OVER THE U P OF MI IS STRENGTHENING AND DROPPING SE
TOWARDS OUR CWA. THIS LOW IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THE
MOVEMENT IS SLOW SO TODAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS. WAA SO AFTN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...

COOL WET PERIOD AS THE SFC LOW AND TROF MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
CLOSE OFF JUST OFF THE NJ COAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. SLOW
MOVEMENT ONCE ON THE COAST SO CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE WRAPPED
COUNTER CLOCKWISE FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO NY/PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT BUT PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WILL KEEP
IT COOL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN ANY 24
PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE SO THAT BY TUESDAY IT
SHOULD BE RAINING EVERYWHERE. BEST CHC OF STEADY RAIN TUES AFTN
WITH SFC LOW PASSAGE. LATER IN SHORT TERM HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE SE ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LONG TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING AS 00Z
GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH OUR EXISTING GRIDDED FORECAST
AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. SOME DIFFERENCES STILL IN THE MODEL SUITE
WITH CLOSED LOW EXITING THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK WITH ECMWF
SLOWEST. A HAPPY MEDIUM SEEMS BEST RIGHT NOW...BUT GIVEN RELATIVE
BLOCKY NORTH ATLANTIC...A SLOWER SOLUTION COULD BE MORE CORRECT.
WE HAVE MODEST POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM TUES-THURS WITH A DRYING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SEEMS FINE FOR NOW. WITH CNY/NEPA
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE CLOSED LOW...WE MADE JUST SOME
ESOTERIC CHANGES TO MENTION MORE STRATIFORM TYPE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY...BUT GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S AT NIGHT TO MID
50S DURING THE DAY.

145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING BELOW FL100 TO AROUND FL050 BY EARLY EVENING.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN PASSING FIRST THROUGH THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIMITED AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z. MORE
RESTRICTIVE CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASING
COVERAGE OF RAIN.

WINDS S-SW 5-10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUES THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB







000
FXUS61 KBGM 201037
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
637 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM CENTERED IN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH RAIN. THE LOW WILL STAY ON THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY KEEPING PERIODS OF RAIN
OVER OUR AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...

A SFC LOW OVER THE U P OF MI IS STRENGTHENING AND DROPPING SE
TOWARDS OUR CWA. THIS LOW IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THE
MOVEMENT IS SLOW SO TODAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS. WAA SO AFTN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...

COOL WET PERIOD AS THE SFC LOW AND TROF MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
CLOSE OFF JUST OFF THE NJ COAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. SLOW
MOVEMENT ONCE ON THE COAST SO CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE WRAPPED
COUNTER CLOCKWISE FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO NY/PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT BUT PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WILL KEEP
IT COOL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN ANY 24
PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE SO THAT BY TUESDAY IT
SHOULD BE RAINING EVERYWHERE. BEST CHC OF STEADY RAIN TUES AFTN
WITH SFC LOW PASSAGE. LATER IN SHORT TERM HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE SE ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LONG TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING AS 00Z
GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH OUR EXISTING GRIDDED FORECAST
AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. SOME DIFFERENCES STILL IN THE MODEL SUITE
WITH CLOSED LOW EXITING THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK WITH ECMWF
SLOWEST. A HAPPY MEDIUM SEEMS BEST RIGHT NOW...BUT GIVEN RELATIVE
BLOCKY NORTH ATLANTIC...A SLOWER SOLUTION COULD BE MORE CORRECT.
WE HAVE MODEST POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM TUES-THURS WITH A DRYING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SEEMS FINE FOR NOW. WITH CNY/NEPA
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE CLOSED LOW...WE MADE JUST SOME
ESOTERIC CHANGES TO MENTION MORE STRATIFORM TYPE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY...BUT GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S AT NIGHT TO MID
50S DURING THE DAY.

145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING BELOW FL100 TO AROUND FL050 BY EARLY EVENING.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN PASSING FIRST THROUGH THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIMITED AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z. MORE
RESTRICTIVE CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASING
COVERAGE OF RAIN.

WINDS S-SW 5-10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUES THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB








000
FXUS61 KBGM 201037
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
637 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM CENTERED IN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH RAIN. THE LOW WILL STAY ON THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY KEEPING PERIODS OF RAIN
OVER OUR AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...

A SFC LOW OVER THE U P OF MI IS STRENGTHENING AND DROPPING SE
TOWARDS OUR CWA. THIS LOW IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THE
MOVEMENT IS SLOW SO TODAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS. WAA SO AFTN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...

COOL WET PERIOD AS THE SFC LOW AND TROF MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
CLOSE OFF JUST OFF THE NJ COAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. SLOW
MOVEMENT ONCE ON THE COAST SO CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE WRAPPED
COUNTER CLOCKWISE FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO NY/PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT BUT PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WILL KEEP
IT COOL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN ANY 24
PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE SO THAT BY TUESDAY IT
SHOULD BE RAINING EVERYWHERE. BEST CHC OF STEADY RAIN TUES AFTN
WITH SFC LOW PASSAGE. LATER IN SHORT TERM HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE SE ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LONG TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING AS 00Z
GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH OUR EXISTING GRIDDED FORECAST
AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. SOME DIFFERENCES STILL IN THE MODEL SUITE
WITH CLOSED LOW EXITING THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK WITH ECMWF
SLOWEST. A HAPPY MEDIUM SEEMS BEST RIGHT NOW...BUT GIVEN RELATIVE
BLOCKY NORTH ATLANTIC...A SLOWER SOLUTION COULD BE MORE CORRECT.
WE HAVE MODEST POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM TUES-THURS WITH A DRYING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SEEMS FINE FOR NOW. WITH CNY/NEPA
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE CLOSED LOW...WE MADE JUST SOME
ESOTERIC CHANGES TO MENTION MORE STRATIFORM TYPE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY...BUT GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S AT NIGHT TO MID
50S DURING THE DAY.

145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING BELOW FL100 TO AROUND FL050 BY EARLY EVENING.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN PASSING FIRST THROUGH THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIMITED AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z. MORE
RESTRICTIVE CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASING
COVERAGE OF RAIN.

WINDS S-SW 5-10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUES THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB







000
FXUS61 KBGM 200819
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
419 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM CENTERED IN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH RAIN. THE LOW WILL STAY ON THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY KEEPING PERIODS OF RAIN
OVER OUR AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...

A SFC LOW OVER THE U P OF MI IS STRENGTHENING AND DROPPING SE
TOWARDS OUR CWA. THIS LOW IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THE
MOVEMENT IS SLOW SO TODAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS. WAA SO AFTN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...

COOL WET PERIOD AS THE SFC LOW AND TROF MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
CLOSE OFF JUST OFF THE NJ COAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. SLOW
MOVEMENT ONCE ON THE COAST SO CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE WRAPPED
COUNTER CLOCKWISE FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO NY/PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT BUT PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WILL KEEP
IT COOL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN ANY 24
PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE SO THAT BY TUESDAY IT
SHOULD BE RAINING EVERYWHERE. BEST CHC OF STEADY RAIN TUES AFTN
WITH SFC LOW PASSAGE. LATER IN SHORT TERM HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE SE ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LONG TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING AS 00Z
GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH OUR EXISTING GRIDDED FORECAST
AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. SOME DIFFERENCES STILL IN THE MODEL SUITE
WITH CLOSED LOW EXITING THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK WITH ECMWF
SLOWEST. A HAPPY MEDIUM SEEMS BEST RIGHT NOW...BUT GIVEN RELATIVE
BLOCKY NORTH ATLANTIC...A SLOWER SOLUTION COULD BE MORE CORRECT.
WE HAVE MODEST POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM TUES-THURS WITH A DRYING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SEEMS FINE FOR NOW. WITH CNY/NEPA
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE CLOSED LOW...WE MADE JUST SOME
ESOTERIC CHANGES TO MENTION MORE STRATIFORM TYPE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY...BUT GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S AT NIGHT TO MID
50S DURING THE DAY.

145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT DATA COMMS OUTAGE AT THIS HOUR
WHICH IS LIMITING METARS. HOWEVER...A PHONE CHECK OF THE ASOS
CONFIRMS VFR ACROSS CNY/NEPA. VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS WITH TIME AS
SFC WARM FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS WESTERN NY AND LAKE ONTARIO IN
ADVANCE OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS LOWER ONTARIO. FOR
THE MOST PART...RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VSBY
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AFTER 00Z-03Z IN THIS
REGION. MORE IMPACT FROM SHOWERS BECOMES MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z
TUES AND WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH LATER UPDATES.

WINDS LIGHT EARLY BECOMING S-SW 5-10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...JAB








000
FXUS61 KBGM 200819
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
419 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM CENTERED IN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH RAIN. THE LOW WILL STAY ON THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY KEEPING PERIODS OF RAIN
OVER OUR AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...

A SFC LOW OVER THE U P OF MI IS STRENGTHENING AND DROPPING SE
TOWARDS OUR CWA. THIS LOW IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THE
MOVEMENT IS SLOW SO TODAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS. WAA SO AFTN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...

COOL WET PERIOD AS THE SFC LOW AND TROF MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
CLOSE OFF JUST OFF THE NJ COAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. SLOW
MOVEMENT ONCE ON THE COAST SO CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE WRAPPED
COUNTER CLOCKWISE FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO NY/PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT BUT PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WILL KEEP
IT COOL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN ANY 24
PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE SO THAT BY TUESDAY IT
SHOULD BE RAINING EVERYWHERE. BEST CHC OF STEADY RAIN TUES AFTN
WITH SFC LOW PASSAGE. LATER IN SHORT TERM HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE SE ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LONG TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING AS 00Z
GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH OUR EXISTING GRIDDED FORECAST
AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. SOME DIFFERENCES STILL IN THE MODEL SUITE
WITH CLOSED LOW EXITING THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK WITH ECMWF
SLOWEST. A HAPPY MEDIUM SEEMS BEST RIGHT NOW...BUT GIVEN RELATIVE
BLOCKY NORTH ATLANTIC...A SLOWER SOLUTION COULD BE MORE CORRECT.
WE HAVE MODEST POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM TUES-THURS WITH A DRYING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SEEMS FINE FOR NOW. WITH CNY/NEPA
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE CLOSED LOW...WE MADE JUST SOME
ESOTERIC CHANGES TO MENTION MORE STRATIFORM TYPE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY...BUT GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S AT NIGHT TO MID
50S DURING THE DAY.

145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT DATA COMMS OUTAGE AT THIS HOUR
WHICH IS LIMITING METARS. HOWEVER...A PHONE CHECK OF THE ASOS
CONFIRMS VFR ACROSS CNY/NEPA. VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS WITH TIME AS
SFC WARM FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS WESTERN NY AND LAKE ONTARIO IN
ADVANCE OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS LOWER ONTARIO. FOR
THE MOST PART...RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VSBY
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AFTER 00Z-03Z IN THIS
REGION. MORE IMPACT FROM SHOWERS BECOMES MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z
TUES AND WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH LATER UPDATES.

WINDS LIGHT EARLY BECOMING S-SW 5-10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...JAB









000
FXUS61 KBGM 200541
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
141 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS MONDAY AND
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS PROGRESSED EVEN FASTER THAN EXPECTED...YET
HIGH CLOUDS ALSO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SYRACUSE AND
PENN YAN ARE STILL NEAR 40 DEGREES...BUT ITHACA NORWICH AND CORTLAND
HAVE ALREADY HIT FREEZING. WITH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW INCREASING...FROST IN YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA
SHOULD BE PATCHY AT BEST THUS STILL SEE NO NEED FOR COUNTY WIDE
FROST ADVISORY. SOME OF THE ELEVATED VALLEYS AND DRAINAGES IN
SOUTHERN CAYUGA-SOUTHERN ONONDAGA STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SOME
FROST...YET IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED SOME THIS
SEASON.

640 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED BASED MOSTLY ON CLOUD
EVOLUTION...ESPECIALLY MOHAWK VALLEY TO WESTERN CATSKILLS WHERE
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN HANGING TOUGH. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL REPRESENT A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CLOUD COVER /AND A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING/ BETWEEN THE DISSIPATING
STRATOCUMULUS...AND APPROACHING CIRRUS OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEN
OVERNIGHT...THOSE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WHILE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO INCREASES TOWARDS DAWN...WHICH AT THIS POINT
STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SCATTERED FROST IN THE
LAKE PLAIN ZONES /YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA/. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...AMPLE FROST EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF LAKE CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE WRN CATS. XPCT A SLOW EROSION OF THE CLDS EVEN AS SOME HI
CLDS FROM THE LAKES LOW DRFT IN OVRNGT. HAVE CONTD WITH THE FREEZE
WARNING TO THE SOUTH AS THAT AREA HAS CLRD AND DEW PTS ARE IN THE
MID 20S. OTR ACTIVE GROWING AREA OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES SHD BE
SOMEWHAT PROTECTED BY THE BREEZE OFF THE LAKE AND WITH PTCHY CLDS
MVG THRU. STILL...SOME SCT FROST LIKELY UP THERE AS WELL...ESP
AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER THE HIER ELEVATIONS.

FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTN SHD END QUICKLY THIS EVE AS STRONG DVM
ALONG WITH WEAKEN FLOW OVERCOMES MRGNL INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNFORTUNATE WEEK OF WX AHD AS A CLIPPER CLOSES OFF OVER THE EST
CST.

SFC HIPRES RDG SLIDES EAST MON ALLOWING WEAK OVERRUNNING TO DVLP.
AT FIRST...RISING HGTS AND THE SLOW MVMT OF THE DEEPENING LOW
KEEPS PCPN WEST OF THE AREA...GNRLY THRU 00Z TUE AND EVEN LATER IN
THE EAST. ONCE IT GETS IN HERE THOUGH...IT WILL LAST THRU THE SHRT TERM
INTO THE XTNDD.

TEMPS WILL BE BLO AVG THRU THE PD WITH THE NE FLOW...CLDS AND
PCPN. HWVR...WITH THE LOW CLSD OFF...IT/S UNABLE TO TAP ANY REAL
COLD AIR...SO DESPITE THE PTRN AND PSN OF THE LOWS...ONLY LIQUID
PCPN XPCTD THRU THE EVENT.

QPF AMTS SHD BE RELATIVELY LGT AND THE TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE DEEP
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WELL EAT OF THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE UPR LOW AND LGTR SHWRY PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT DATA COMMS OUTAGE AT THIS HOUR
WHICH IS LIMITING METARS. HOWEVER...A PHONE CHECK OF THE ASOS
CONFIRMS VFR ACROSS CNY/NEPA. VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS WITH TIME AS SFC
WARM FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS WESTERN NY AND LAKE ONTARIO IN ADVANCE OF
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS LOWER ONTARIO. FOR THE MOST
PART...RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VSBY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AFTER 00Z-03Z IN THIS REGION.
MORE IMPACT FROM SHOWERS BECOMES MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z TUES AND
WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH LATER UPDATES.

WINDS LIGHT EARLY BECOMING S-SW 5-10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...JAB







000
FXUS61 KBGM 200541
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
141 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS MONDAY AND
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS PROGRESSED EVEN FASTER THAN EXPECTED...YET
HIGH CLOUDS ALSO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SYRACUSE AND
PENN YAN ARE STILL NEAR 40 DEGREES...BUT ITHACA NORWICH AND CORTLAND
HAVE ALREADY HIT FREEZING. WITH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW INCREASING...FROST IN YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA
SHOULD BE PATCHY AT BEST THUS STILL SEE NO NEED FOR COUNTY WIDE
FROST ADVISORY. SOME OF THE ELEVATED VALLEYS AND DRAINAGES IN
SOUTHERN CAYUGA-SOUTHERN ONONDAGA STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SOME
FROST...YET IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED SOME THIS
SEASON.

640 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED BASED MOSTLY ON CLOUD
EVOLUTION...ESPECIALLY MOHAWK VALLEY TO WESTERN CATSKILLS WHERE
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN HANGING TOUGH. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL REPRESENT A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CLOUD COVER /AND A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING/ BETWEEN THE DISSIPATING
STRATOCUMULUS...AND APPROACHING CIRRUS OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEN
OVERNIGHT...THOSE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WHILE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO INCREASES TOWARDS DAWN...WHICH AT THIS POINT
STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SCATTERED FROST IN THE
LAKE PLAIN ZONES /YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA/. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...AMPLE FROST EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF LAKE CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE WRN CATS. XPCT A SLOW EROSION OF THE CLDS EVEN AS SOME HI
CLDS FROM THE LAKES LOW DRFT IN OVRNGT. HAVE CONTD WITH THE FREEZE
WARNING TO THE SOUTH AS THAT AREA HAS CLRD AND DEW PTS ARE IN THE
MID 20S. OTR ACTIVE GROWING AREA OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES SHD BE
SOMEWHAT PROTECTED BY THE BREEZE OFF THE LAKE AND WITH PTCHY CLDS
MVG THRU. STILL...SOME SCT FROST LIKELY UP THERE AS WELL...ESP
AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER THE HIER ELEVATIONS.

FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTN SHD END QUICKLY THIS EVE AS STRONG DVM
ALONG WITH WEAKEN FLOW OVERCOMES MRGNL INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNFORTUNATE WEEK OF WX AHD AS A CLIPPER CLOSES OFF OVER THE EST
CST.

SFC HIPRES RDG SLIDES EAST MON ALLOWING WEAK OVERRUNNING TO DVLP.
AT FIRST...RISING HGTS AND THE SLOW MVMT OF THE DEEPENING LOW
KEEPS PCPN WEST OF THE AREA...GNRLY THRU 00Z TUE AND EVEN LATER IN
THE EAST. ONCE IT GETS IN HERE THOUGH...IT WILL LAST THRU THE SHRT TERM
INTO THE XTNDD.

TEMPS WILL BE BLO AVG THRU THE PD WITH THE NE FLOW...CLDS AND
PCPN. HWVR...WITH THE LOW CLSD OFF...IT/S UNABLE TO TAP ANY REAL
COLD AIR...SO DESPITE THE PTRN AND PSN OF THE LOWS...ONLY LIQUID
PCPN XPCTD THRU THE EVENT.

QPF AMTS SHD BE RELATIVELY LGT AND THE TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE DEEP
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WELL EAT OF THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE UPR LOW AND LGTR SHWRY PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT DATA COMMS OUTAGE AT THIS HOUR
WHICH IS LIMITING METARS. HOWEVER...A PHONE CHECK OF THE ASOS
CONFIRMS VFR ACROSS CNY/NEPA. VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS WITH TIME AS SFC
WARM FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS WESTERN NY AND LAKE ONTARIO IN ADVANCE OF
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS LOWER ONTARIO. FOR THE MOST
PART...RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VSBY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AFTER 00Z-03Z IN THIS REGION.
MORE IMPACT FROM SHOWERS BECOMES MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z TUES AND
WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH LATER UPDATES.

WINDS LIGHT EARLY BECOMING S-SW 5-10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...JAB








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