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000
FXUS61 KBGM 300618
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1050 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TEMPS. FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

800 PM EDT UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A STUBBORN CLOUD DECK
CONTINUES TO SIT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA.
STILL THINK CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY GO AWAY TONIGHT AS THE DECK WAS
PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE SUN. DO NOT
THINK DECK WILL COMPLETELY GO AWAY BUT BECOME MORE PARTY CLOUDY IN
NATURE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT AND BECOME ANOTHER CHILLY
EVENING/EARLY MORNING. TEMPS ARE LOOKING BE IN THE UPPR 40S TO
LOW 50S BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.


240 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU REFUSED TO GIVE UP THE GHOST TODAY. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN
6 PM AND SUNSET.

GIVEN AMPLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND MOIST GROUND,
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 2 AM. `

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER LOWER CANADA WITH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE INTERIM, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD CORE ALOFT AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER
70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 PM TUE UPDATE... THE LARGE-SCALE PATN OF A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PD...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LOSE
SOME AMPLITUDE/RETROGRADE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWRS/TSTMS ARE FORESEEN
EACH DAY...PERHAPS MOST NUMEROUS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS...WHEN A
COASTAL SFC BNDRY BACKS SLOWLY WWD...AND ALSO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHC/SCTD POPS WILL BE
EMPLOYED FOR NOW...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY UNCERTAINTIES AT THESE TIME
RANGES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY AUG...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT, WITH AN INCREASING DECK OF MID CLOUDS AROUND 7KFT MOVING
IN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE BETWEEN NOW AND 13Z AT KELM WHERE VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY. WITH CURRENT TEMPS NEAR YESTERDAY`S LOWEST
DEWPOINT (CROSSOVER TEMP), IFR VSBYS ARE LIKLEY. THE BIG QUESTION
IS WILL THE CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NY NOW MAKE IT INTO KELM THIS
MORNING AND IF THEY DO, WHAT IMPACT WILL THEY HAVE. BASED ON SUCH
PRIME CONDITIONS NOW FOR FOG FELT IT WAS WORTH IFR RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 13Z. WITH THAT SAID I INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO SHOW THAT
CONDITIONS MAY VARY DUE TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE 09Z
UPDATE IF CONDITIONS MERIT, I CAN MAKE SOME CHANGES INCLUDING
LOWERING VSBYS IF FOG IS ABLE TO LOCK IN.

RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE.
WHILE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ANYTIME IN THE 18Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME, I
TRIED TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES WITH A TEMPO GROUP.

WINDS LGT/VRB WILL INCREASE TO BTWN 5-10KTS FROM THE SW AFTER 14Z
TODAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT OR NEAR CALM.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 300252
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1052 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1050 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TEMPS. FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

800 PM EDT UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A STUBBORN CLOUD DECK
CONTINUES TO SIT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA.
STILL THINK CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY GO AWAY TONIGHT AS THE DECK WAS
PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE SUN. DO NOT
THINK DECK WILL COMPLETELY GO AWAY BUT BECOME MORE PARTY CLOUDY IN
NATURE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT AND BECOME ANOTHER CHILLY
EVENING/EARLY MORNING. TEMPS ARE LOOKING BE IN THE UPPR 40S TO
LOW 50S BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.


240 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU REFUSED TO GIVE UP THE GHOST TODAY. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN
6 PM AND SUNSET.

GIVEN AMPLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND MOIST GROUND,
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 2 AM. `

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER LOWER CANADA WITH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE INTERIM, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD CORE ALOFT AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER
70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 PM TUE UPDATE... THE LARGE-SCALE PATN OF A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PD...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LOSE
SOME AMPLITUDE/RETROGRADE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWRS/TSTMS ARE FORESEEN
EACH DAY...PERHAPS MOST NUMEROUS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS...WHEN A
COASTAL SFC BNDRY BACKS SLOWLY WWD...AND ALSO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHC/SCTD POPS WILL BE
EMPLOYED FOR NOW...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY UNCERTAINTIES AT THESE TIME
RANGES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY AUG...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS AT THIS TIME MAY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT, THOUGH
DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. THUS HAVE BROUGHT VSBYS UP AT ELM TONIGHT AS
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LOW IFR FOG WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS LATE IN TAF PERIOD. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 AT ALL NY
TERMINALS FOR LAST 6 HOURS.

WINDS LGT/VRB WILL INCREASE TO BTWN 5-10KTS FROM THE SW AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...PVN









000
FXUS61 KBGM 300252
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1052 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1050 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TEMPS. FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

800 PM EDT UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A STUBBORN CLOUD DECK
CONTINUES TO SIT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA.
STILL THINK CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY GO AWAY TONIGHT AS THE DECK WAS
PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE SUN. DO NOT
THINK DECK WILL COMPLETELY GO AWAY BUT BECOME MORE PARTY CLOUDY IN
NATURE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT AND BECOME ANOTHER CHILLY
EVENING/EARLY MORNING. TEMPS ARE LOOKING BE IN THE UPPR 40S TO
LOW 50S BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.


240 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU REFUSED TO GIVE UP THE GHOST TODAY. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN
6 PM AND SUNSET.

GIVEN AMPLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND MOIST GROUND,
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 2 AM. `

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER LOWER CANADA WITH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE INTERIM, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD CORE ALOFT AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER
70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 PM TUE UPDATE... THE LARGE-SCALE PATN OF A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PD...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LOSE
SOME AMPLITUDE/RETROGRADE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWRS/TSTMS ARE FORESEEN
EACH DAY...PERHAPS MOST NUMEROUS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS...WHEN A
COASTAL SFC BNDRY BACKS SLOWLY WWD...AND ALSO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHC/SCTD POPS WILL BE
EMPLOYED FOR NOW...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY UNCERTAINTIES AT THESE TIME
RANGES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY AUG...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS AT THIS TIME MAY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT, THOUGH
DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. THUS HAVE BROUGHT VSBYS UP AT ELM TONIGHT AS
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LOW IFR FOG WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS LATE IN TAF PERIOD. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 AT ALL NY
TERMINALS FOR LAST 6 HOURS.

WINDS LGT/VRB WILL INCREASE TO BTWN 5-10KTS FROM THE SW AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...PVN










000
FXUS61 KBGM 300012
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
812 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A STUBBORN CLOUD DECK
CONTINUES TO SIT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA.
STILL THINK CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY GO AWAY TONIGHT AS THE DECK WAS
PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE SUN. DO NOT
THINK DECK WILL COMPLETELY GO AWAY BUT BECOME MORE PARTY CLOUDY IN
NATURE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT AND BECOME ANOTHER CHILLY
EVENING/EARLY MORNING. TEMPS ARE LOOKING BE IN THE UPPR 40S TO
LOW 50S BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.


240 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU REFUSED TO GIVE UP THE GHOST TODAY. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN
6 PM AND SUNSET.

GIVEN AMPLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND MOIST GROUND,
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 2 AM. `

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER LOWER CANADA WITH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE INTERIM, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD CORE ALOFT AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER
70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 PM TUE UPDATE... THE LARGE-SCALE PATN OF A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PD...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LOSE
SOME AMPLITUDE/RETROGRADE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWRS/TSTMS ARE FORESEEN
EACH DAY...PERHAPS MOST NUMEROUS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS...WHEN A
COASTAL SFC BNDRY BACKS SLOWLY WWD...AND ALSO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHC/SCTD POPS WILL BE
EMPLOYED FOR NOW...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY UNCERTAINTIES AT THESE TIME
RANGES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY AUG...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS AT THIS TIME MAY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT, THOUGH
DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. THUS HAVE BROUGHT VSBYS UP AT ELM TONIGHT AS
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LOW IFR FOG WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS LATE IN TAF PERIOD. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 AT ALL NY
TERMINALS FOR LAST 6 HOURS.

WINDS LGT/VRB WILL INCREASE TO BTWN 5-10KTS FROM THE SW AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...PVN









000
FXUS61 KBGM 300012
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
812 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A STUBBORN CLOUD DECK
CONTINUES TO SIT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA.
STILL THINK CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY GO AWAY TONIGHT AS THE DECK WAS
PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE SUN. DO NOT
THINK DECK WILL COMPLETELY GO AWAY BUT BECOME MORE PARTY CLOUDY IN
NATURE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT AND BECOME ANOTHER CHILLY
EVENING/EARLY MORNING. TEMPS ARE LOOKING BE IN THE UPPR 40S TO
LOW 50S BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.


240 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU REFUSED TO GIVE UP THE GHOST TODAY. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN
6 PM AND SUNSET.

GIVEN AMPLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND MOIST GROUND,
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 2 AM. `

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER LOWER CANADA WITH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE INTERIM, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD CORE ALOFT AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER
70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 PM TUE UPDATE... THE LARGE-SCALE PATN OF A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PD...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LOSE
SOME AMPLITUDE/RETROGRADE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWRS/TSTMS ARE FORESEEN
EACH DAY...PERHAPS MOST NUMEROUS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS...WHEN A
COASTAL SFC BNDRY BACKS SLOWLY WWD...AND ALSO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHC/SCTD POPS WILL BE
EMPLOYED FOR NOW...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY UNCERTAINTIES AT THESE TIME
RANGES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY AUG...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS AT THIS TIME MAY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT, THOUGH
DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. THUS HAVE BROUGHT VSBYS UP AT ELM TONIGHT AS
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LOW IFR FOG WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS LATE IN TAF PERIOD. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 AT ALL NY
TERMINALS FOR LAST 6 HOURS.

WINDS LGT/VRB WILL INCREASE TO BTWN 5-10KTS FROM THE SW AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...PVN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 292332
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
732 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
240 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU REFUSED TO GIVE UP THE GHOST TODAY. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN
6 PM AND SUNSET.

GIVEN AMPLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND MOIST GROUND,
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 2 AM. `

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S.

1005 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE LINGERED THE CLOUDS LONGER WITHIN THE SKY GRIDS THIS
MORNING, AND SUPPRESSED MORNING TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. STRATOCU
AREA EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD I-81 CORRIDOR IS PROVING TO
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. THE MODEL PROJECTED BURN OFF HAS NOT
OCCURRED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER LOWER CANADA WITH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE INTERIM, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD CORE ALOFT AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER
70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 PM TUE UPDATE... THE LARGE-SCALE PATN OF A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PD...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LOSE
SOME AMPLITUDE/RETROGRADE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWRS/TSTMS ARE FORESEEN
EACH DAY...PERHAPS MOST NUMEROUS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS...WHEN A
COASTAL SFC BNDRY BACKS SLOWLY WWD...AND ALSO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHC/SCTD POPS WILL BE
EMPLOYED FOR NOW...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY UNCERTAINTIES AT THESE TIME
RANGES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY AUG...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS AT THIS TIME MAY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT, THOUGH
DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. THUS HAVE BROUGHT VSBYS UP AT ELM TONIGHT AS
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LOW IFR FOG WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS LATE IN TAF PERIOD. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 AT ALL NY
TERMINALS FOR LAST 6 HOURS.

WINDS LGT/VRB WILL INCREASE TO BTWN 5-10KTS FROM THE SW AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 292332
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
732 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
240 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU REFUSED TO GIVE UP THE GHOST TODAY. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN
6 PM AND SUNSET.

GIVEN AMPLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND MOIST GROUND,
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 2 AM. `

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S.

1005 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE LINGERED THE CLOUDS LONGER WITHIN THE SKY GRIDS THIS
MORNING, AND SUPPRESSED MORNING TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. STRATOCU
AREA EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD I-81 CORRIDOR IS PROVING TO
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. THE MODEL PROJECTED BURN OFF HAS NOT
OCCURRED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER LOWER CANADA WITH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE INTERIM, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD CORE ALOFT AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER
70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 PM TUE UPDATE... THE LARGE-SCALE PATN OF A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PD...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LOSE
SOME AMPLITUDE/RETROGRADE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWRS/TSTMS ARE FORESEEN
EACH DAY...PERHAPS MOST NUMEROUS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS...WHEN A
COASTAL SFC BNDRY BACKS SLOWLY WWD...AND ALSO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHC/SCTD POPS WILL BE
EMPLOYED FOR NOW...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY UNCERTAINTIES AT THESE TIME
RANGES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY AUG...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS AT THIS TIME MAY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT, THOUGH
DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. THUS HAVE BROUGHT VSBYS UP AT ELM TONIGHT AS
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LOW IFR FOG WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS LATE IN TAF PERIOD. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 AT ALL NY
TERMINALS FOR LAST 6 HOURS.

WINDS LGT/VRB WILL INCREASE TO BTWN 5-10KTS FROM THE SW AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...PVN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 291921
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
321 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
240 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU REFUSED TO GIVE UP THE GHOST TODAY. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN
6 PM AND SUNSET.

GIVEN AMPLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND MOIST GROUND,
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 2 AM. `

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S.

1005 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE LINGERED THE CLOUDS LONGER WITHIN THE SKY GRIDS THIS
MORNING, AND SUPPRESSED MORNING TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. STRATOCU
AREA EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD I-81 CORRIDOR IS PROVING TO
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. THE MODEL PROJECTED BURN OFF HAS NOT
OCCURRED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER LOWER CANADA WITH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE INTERIM, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD CORE ALOFT AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER
70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 PM TUE UPDATE... THE LARGE-SCALE PATN OF A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PD...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LOSE
SOME AMPLITUDE/RETROGRADE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWRS/TSTMS ARE FORESEEN
EACH DAY...PERHAPS MOST NUMEROUS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS...WHEN A
COASTAL SFC BNDRY BACKS SLOWLY WWD...AND ALSO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHC/SCTD POPS WILL BE
EMPLOYED FOR NOW...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY UNCERTAINTIES AT THESE TIME
RANGES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY AUG...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUE UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
FCST PD...WITH A SCT-BKN CU FIELD THIS AFTN...AND AGN LATE WED
MRNG INTO THE AFTN. IN BETWEEN...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TNT.

THE USUAL EXCEPTION IS KELM...WHERE VLY FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED (STARTING 06-08Z). IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE FORESEEN
HERE THROUGH 12-13Z WED...BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 291921
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
321 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
240 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU REFUSED TO GIVE UP THE GHOST TODAY. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN
6 PM AND SUNSET.

GIVEN AMPLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND MOIST GROUND,
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 2 AM. `

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S.

1005 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE LINGERED THE CLOUDS LONGER WITHIN THE SKY GRIDS THIS
MORNING, AND SUPPRESSED MORNING TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. STRATOCU
AREA EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD I-81 CORRIDOR IS PROVING TO
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. THE MODEL PROJECTED BURN OFF HAS NOT
OCCURRED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER LOWER CANADA WITH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE INTERIM, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD CORE ALOFT AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER
70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 PM TUE UPDATE... THE LARGE-SCALE PATN OF A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PD...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LOSE
SOME AMPLITUDE/RETROGRADE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWRS/TSTMS ARE FORESEEN
EACH DAY...PERHAPS MOST NUMEROUS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS...WHEN A
COASTAL SFC BNDRY BACKS SLOWLY WWD...AND ALSO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHC/SCTD POPS WILL BE
EMPLOYED FOR NOW...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY UNCERTAINTIES AT THESE TIME
RANGES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY AUG...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUE UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
FCST PD...WITH A SCT-BKN CU FIELD THIS AFTN...AND AGN LATE WED
MRNG INTO THE AFTN. IN BETWEEN...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TNT.

THE USUAL EXCEPTION IS KELM...WHERE VLY FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED (STARTING 06-08Z). IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE FORESEEN
HERE THROUGH 12-13Z WED...BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBGM 291845
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
245 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
240 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU REFUSED TO GIVE UP THE GHOST TODAY. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN
6 PM AND SUNSET.

GIVEN AMPLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND MOIST GROUND,
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 2 AM. `

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S.

1005 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE LINGERED THE CLOUDS LONGER WITHIN THE SKY GRIDS THIS
MORNING, AND SUPPRESSED MORNING TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. STRATOCU
AREA EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD I-81 CORRIDOR IS PROVING TO
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. THE MODEL PROJECTED BURN OFF HAS NOT
OCCURRED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER LOWER CANADA WITH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE INTERIM, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD CORE ALOFT AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER
70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUE UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
FCST PD...WITH A SCT-BKN CU FIELD THIS AFTN...AND AGN LATE WED
MRNG INTO THE AFTN. IN BETWEEN...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TNT.

THE USUAL EXCEPTION IS KELM...WHERE VLY FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED (STARTING 06-08Z). IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE FORESEEN
HERE THROUGH 12-13Z WED...BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBGM 291845
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
245 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
240 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU REFUSED TO GIVE UP THE GHOST TODAY. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN
6 PM AND SUNSET.

GIVEN AMPLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND MOIST GROUND,
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 2 AM. `

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S.

1005 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE LINGERED THE CLOUDS LONGER WITHIN THE SKY GRIDS THIS
MORNING, AND SUPPRESSED MORNING TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. STRATOCU
AREA EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD I-81 CORRIDOR IS PROVING TO
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. THE MODEL PROJECTED BURN OFF HAS NOT
OCCURRED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER LOWER CANADA WITH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE INTERIM, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD CORE ALOFT AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER
70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUE UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
FCST PD...WITH A SCT-BKN CU FIELD THIS AFTN...AND AGN LATE WED
MRNG INTO THE AFTN. IN BETWEEN...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TNT.

THE USUAL EXCEPTION IS KELM...WHERE VLY FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED (STARTING 06-08Z). IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE FORESEEN
HERE THROUGH 12-13Z WED...BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 291716
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
116 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS
PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1005 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE LINGERED THE CLOUDS LONGER WITHIN THE SKY GRIDS THIS
MORNING, AND SUPPRESSED MORNING TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. STRATOCU
AREA EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD I-81 CORRIDOR IS PROVING TO
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. THE MODEL PROJECTED BURN OFF HAS NOT
OCCURRED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 AM...LOCAL RADAR INDICATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE NOW
DIMINISHED AS SKIES ARE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A FAIRLY DEEP TROF
OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH SOME MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT DUE TO LACK OF ANY
TRIGGERS ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY SUNNY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD
KEEPING REGION ON THE COOL SIDE. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS BOTH WED AND THU AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY
BOTH AFTERNOONS SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. BY
THURSDAY, SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A
MODERATING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z TUE UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
FCST PD...WITH A SCT-BKN CU FIELD THIS AFTN...AND AGN LATE WED
MRNG INTO THE AFTN. IN BETWEEN...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TNT.

THE USUAL EXCEPTION IS KELM...WHERE VLY FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED (STARTING 06-08Z). IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE FORESEEN
HERE THROUGH 12-13Z WED...BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBGM 291716
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
116 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS
PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1005 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE LINGERED THE CLOUDS LONGER WITHIN THE SKY GRIDS THIS
MORNING, AND SUPPRESSED MORNING TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. STRATOCU
AREA EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD I-81 CORRIDOR IS PROVING TO
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. THE MODEL PROJECTED BURN OFF HAS NOT
OCCURRED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 AM...LOCAL RADAR INDICATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE NOW
DIMINISHED AS SKIES ARE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A FAIRLY DEEP TROF
OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH SOME MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT DUE TO LACK OF ANY
TRIGGERS ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY SUNNY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD
KEEPING REGION ON THE COOL SIDE. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS BOTH WED AND THU AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY
BOTH AFTERNOONS SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. BY
THURSDAY, SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A
MODERATING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z TUE UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
FCST PD...WITH A SCT-BKN CU FIELD THIS AFTN...AND AGN LATE WED
MRNG INTO THE AFTN. IN BETWEEN...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TNT.

THE USUAL EXCEPTION IS KELM...WHERE VLY FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED (STARTING 06-08Z). IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE FORESEEN
HERE THROUGH 12-13Z WED...BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 291406
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS
PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1005 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE LINGERED THE CLOUDS LONGER WITHIN THE SKY GRIDS THIS
MORNING, AND SUPPRESSED MORNING TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. STRATOCU
AREA EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD I-81 CORRIDOR IS PROVING TO
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. THE MODEL PROJECTED BURN OFF HAS NOT
OCCURRED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 AM...LOCAL RADAR INDICATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE NOW
DIMINISHED AS SKIES ARE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A FAIRLY DEEP TROF
OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH SOME MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT DUE TO LACK OF ANY
TRIGGERS ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY SUNNY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD
KEEPING REGION ON THE COOL SIDE. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS BOTH WED AND THU AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY
BOTH AFTERNOONS SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. BY
THURSDAY, SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A
MODERATING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KITH THROUGH 14Z AND OUTSIDE SHOT
ALSO AT KBGM. OTHERWISE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST EXTENSIVE
CUMULUS COVERAGE TODAY WILL BE FROM KITH SOUTH, WITH A BETTER SHOT
AT SUN COMING AT SYR AND RME. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BY EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH A NEAR CALM WIND AND OUR RECENT RAIN, ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S, VALLEY FOG WILL PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AT
KELM AFTER 07Z.


WINDS OUT OF THE WNW TODAY, BECOMING NEAR CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 291406
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS
PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1005 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE LINGERED THE CLOUDS LONGER WITHIN THE SKY GRIDS THIS
MORNING, AND SUPPRESSED MORNING TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. STRATOCU
AREA EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD I-81 CORRIDOR IS PROVING TO
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. THE MODEL PROJECTED BURN OFF HAS NOT
OCCURRED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 AM...LOCAL RADAR INDICATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE NOW
DIMINISHED AS SKIES ARE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A FAIRLY DEEP TROF
OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH SOME MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT DUE TO LACK OF ANY
TRIGGERS ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY SUNNY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD
KEEPING REGION ON THE COOL SIDE. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS BOTH WED AND THU AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY
BOTH AFTERNOONS SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. BY
THURSDAY, SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A
MODERATING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KITH THROUGH 14Z AND OUTSIDE SHOT
ALSO AT KBGM. OTHERWISE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST EXTENSIVE
CUMULUS COVERAGE TODAY WILL BE FROM KITH SOUTH, WITH A BETTER SHOT
AT SUN COMING AT SYR AND RME. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BY EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH A NEAR CALM WIND AND OUR RECENT RAIN, ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S, VALLEY FOG WILL PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AT
KELM AFTER 07Z.


WINDS OUT OF THE WNW TODAY, BECOMING NEAR CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 291047
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
647 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS
PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 4 AM...LOCAL RADAR INDICATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE NOW
DIMINISHED AS SKIES ARE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A FAIRLY DEEP TROF
OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH SOME MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT DUE TO LACK OF ANY
TRIGGERS ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY SUNNY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD
KEEPING REGION ON THE COOL SIDE. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS BOTH WED AND THU AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY
BOTH AFTERNOONS SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. BY
THURSDAY, SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A
MODERATING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KITH THROUGH 14Z AND OUTSIDE SHOT
ALSO AT KBGM. OTHERWISE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST EXTENSIVE
CUMULUS COVERAGE TODAY WILL BE FROM KITH SOUTH, WITH A BETTER SHOT
AT SUN COMING AT SYR AND RME. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BY EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH A NEAR CALM WIND AND OUR RECENT RAIN, ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S, VALLEY FOG WILL PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AT
KELM AFTER 07Z.


WINDS OUT OF THE WNW TODAY, BECOMING NEAR CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 291047
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
647 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS
PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 4 AM...LOCAL RADAR INDICATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE NOW
DIMINISHED AS SKIES ARE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A FAIRLY DEEP TROF
OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH SOME MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT DUE TO LACK OF ANY
TRIGGERS ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY SUNNY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD
KEEPING REGION ON THE COOL SIDE. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS BOTH WED AND THU AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY
BOTH AFTERNOONS SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. BY
THURSDAY, SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A
MODERATING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KITH THROUGH 14Z AND OUTSIDE SHOT
ALSO AT KBGM. OTHERWISE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST EXTENSIVE
CUMULUS COVERAGE TODAY WILL BE FROM KITH SOUTH, WITH A BETTER SHOT
AT SUN COMING AT SYR AND RME. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BY EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH A NEAR CALM WIND AND OUR RECENT RAIN, ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S, VALLEY FOG WILL PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AT
KELM AFTER 07Z.


WINDS OUT OF THE WNW TODAY, BECOMING NEAR CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 290810
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
410 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS
PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 4 AM...LOCAL RADAR INDICATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE NOW
DIMINISHED AS SKIES ARE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A FAIRLY DEEP TROF
OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH SOME MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT DUE TO LACK OF ANY
TRIGGERS ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY SUNNY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD
KEEPING REGION ON THE COOL SIDE. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS BOTH WED AND THU AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY
BOTH AFTERNOONS SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. BY
THURSDAY, SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A
MODERATING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE ELEVATED SITES OF
KITH/KBGM, WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KAVP NEXT FEW
HOURS. CONFIDENCE NOT THAT GREAT BASED ON RECENT IMPROVEMENT BUT
STILL HIGH ENOUGH FOR A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 10Z. OTHERWISE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST EXTENSIVE CUMULUS COVERAGE TODAY
WILL BE FROM KITH SOUTH, WITH A BETTER SHOT AT SUN COMING AT SYR
AND RME. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BY EARLY TONIGHT.


WINDS OUT OF THE WNW TODAY, BECOMING NEAR CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 290540
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
140 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT
AND MISS AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1040 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. MASSAGED TEMPS AS THEY ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW
50S ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT AS THE DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION... THEY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES.
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SHOULD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DISSIPATE AS WELL.
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...
DRY AIR IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NY THIS EVENING AS WE ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO BE POSITIONED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPR LVL
TROUGH. DEW POINTS OVER FAR WESTERN NY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
AND EXPECT THE DEW POINTS OVER OUR CWA TO FALL INTO THIS RANGE AS
WELL. AS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EXPECT WHAT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE LINGERING TO DISSIPATE. AND EXPECT CLOUD
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TO BECOME LESS AND LESS.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE CHILLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPR 40S. AS THE SKIES CLEAR OUT VALLEY FOG
MAY DEVELOP... AND IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE SKY BECOMES CLEAR FOR A
FEW HOURS OR MORE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE ELEVATED SITES OF
KITH/KBGM, WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KAVP NEXT FEW
HOURS. CONFIDENCE NOT THAT GREAT BASED ON RECENT IMPROVEMENT BUT
STILL HIGH ENOUGH FOR A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 10Z. OTHERWISE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST EXTENSIVE CUMULUS COVERAGE TODAY
WILL BE FROM KITH SOUTH, WITH A BETTER SHOT AT SUN COMING AT SYR
AND RME. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BY EARLY TONIGHT.


WINDS OUT OF THE WNW TODAY, BECOMING NEAR CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 290540
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
140 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT
AND MISS AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1040 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. MASSAGED TEMPS AS THEY ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW
50S ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT AS THE DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION... THEY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES.
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SHOULD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DISSIPATE AS WELL.
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...
DRY AIR IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NY THIS EVENING AS WE ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO BE POSITIONED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPR LVL
TROUGH. DEW POINTS OVER FAR WESTERN NY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
AND EXPECT THE DEW POINTS OVER OUR CWA TO FALL INTO THIS RANGE AS
WELL. AS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EXPECT WHAT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE LINGERING TO DISSIPATE. AND EXPECT CLOUD
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TO BECOME LESS AND LESS.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE CHILLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPR 40S. AS THE SKIES CLEAR OUT VALLEY FOG
MAY DEVELOP... AND IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE SKY BECOMES CLEAR FOR A
FEW HOURS OR MORE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE ELEVATED SITES OF
KITH/KBGM, WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KAVP NEXT FEW
HOURS. CONFIDENCE NOT THAT GREAT BASED ON RECENT IMPROVEMENT BUT
STILL HIGH ENOUGH FOR A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 10Z. OTHERWISE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST EXTENSIVE CUMULUS COVERAGE TODAY
WILL BE FROM KITH SOUTH, WITH A BETTER SHOT AT SUN COMING AT SYR
AND RME. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BY EARLY TONIGHT.


WINDS OUT OF THE WNW TODAY, BECOMING NEAR CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 290247
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1047 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT
AND MISS AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1040 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. MASSAGED TEMPS AS THEY ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW
50S ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT AS THE DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION... THEY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES.
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SHOULD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DISSIPATE AS WELL.
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...
DRY AIR IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NY THIS EVENING AS WE ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO BE POSITIONED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPR LVL
TROUGH. DEW POINTS OVER FAR WESTERN NY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
AND EXPECT THE DEW POINTS OVER OUR CWA TO FALL INTO THIS RANGE AS
WELL. AS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EXPECT WHAT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE LINGERING TO DISSIPATE. AND EXPECT CLOUD
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TO BECOME LESS AND LESS.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE CHILLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPR 40S. AS THE SKIES CLEAR OUT VALLEY FOG
MAY DEVELOP... AND IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE SKY BECOMES CLEAR FOR A
FEW HOURS OR MORE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PULLING INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING THE
SHOWERS TO AN END BY 06Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT SYR AND RME
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LEAVING VFR IN ITS WAKE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, IFR EXPECTED ACROSS ITH AND ELM THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER THIS TIME, CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LEAVING IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG THROUGH 12Z BEFORE IMPROVING. AT BGM AND AVP, EXPECT JUST
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.

AFTER 15Z TUESDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP
IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS OUT OF THE WNW FROM 5-10KTS NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVN









000
FXUS61 KBGM 290247
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1047 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT
AND MISS AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1040 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. MASSAGED TEMPS AS THEY ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW
50S ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT AS THE DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION... THEY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES.
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SHOULD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DISSIPATE AS WELL.
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...
DRY AIR IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NY THIS EVENING AS WE ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO BE POSITIONED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPR LVL
TROUGH. DEW POINTS OVER FAR WESTERN NY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
AND EXPECT THE DEW POINTS OVER OUR CWA TO FALL INTO THIS RANGE AS
WELL. AS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EXPECT WHAT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE LINGERING TO DISSIPATE. AND EXPECT CLOUD
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TO BECOME LESS AND LESS.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE CHILLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPR 40S. AS THE SKIES CLEAR OUT VALLEY FOG
MAY DEVELOP... AND IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE SKY BECOMES CLEAR FOR A
FEW HOURS OR MORE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PULLING INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING THE
SHOWERS TO AN END BY 06Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT SYR AND RME
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LEAVING VFR IN ITS WAKE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, IFR EXPECTED ACROSS ITH AND ELM THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER THIS TIME, CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LEAVING IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG THROUGH 12Z BEFORE IMPROVING. AT BGM AND AVP, EXPECT JUST
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.

AFTER 15Z TUESDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP
IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS OUT OF THE WNW FROM 5-10KTS NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVN










000
FXUS61 KBGM 282341
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
741 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...
DRY AIR IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NY THIS EVENING AS WE ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO BE POSITIONED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPR
LVL TROUGH. DEW POINTS OVER FAR WESTERN NY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S AND EXPECT THE DEW POINTS OVER OUR CWA TO FALL INTO THIS RANGE
AS WELL. AS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EXPECT
WHAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE LINGERING TO DISSIPATE. AND EXPECT CLOUD
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TO BECOME LESS AND LESS.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE CHILLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPR 40S. AS THE SKIES CLEAR OUT VALLEY FOG
MAY DEVELOP... AND IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE SKY BECOMES CLEAR FOR A
FEW HOURS OR MORE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PULLING INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING THE
SHOWERS TO AN END BY 06Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT SYR AND RME
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LEAVING VFR IN ITS WAKE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, IFR EXPECTED ACROSS ITH AND ELM THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER THIS TIME, CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LEAVING IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG THROUGH 12Z BEFORE IMPROVING. AT BGM AND AVP, EXPECT JUST
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.

AFTER 15Z TUESDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP
IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS OUT OF THE WNW FROM 5-10KTS NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVN









000
FXUS61 KBGM 282341
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
741 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...
DRY AIR IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NY THIS EVENING AS WE ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO BE POSITIONED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPR
LVL TROUGH. DEW POINTS OVER FAR WESTERN NY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S AND EXPECT THE DEW POINTS OVER OUR CWA TO FALL INTO THIS RANGE
AS WELL. AS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EXPECT
WHAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE LINGERING TO DISSIPATE. AND EXPECT CLOUD
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TO BECOME LESS AND LESS.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE CHILLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPR 40S. AS THE SKIES CLEAR OUT VALLEY FOG
MAY DEVELOP... AND IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE SKY BECOMES CLEAR FOR A
FEW HOURS OR MORE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PULLING INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING THE
SHOWERS TO AN END BY 06Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT SYR AND RME
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LEAVING VFR IN ITS WAKE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, IFR EXPECTED ACROSS ITH AND ELM THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER THIS TIME, CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LEAVING IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG THROUGH 12Z BEFORE IMPROVING. AT BGM AND AVP, EXPECT JUST
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.

AFTER 15Z TUESDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP
IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS OUT OF THE WNW FROM 5-10KTS NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 282331
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
731 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
4 PM MON UPDATE... THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS FINALLY OPENING
UP LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVING ENEWD INTO NEW ENG. AS SUCH...THE
HVYR RAINS ON THE DEFORMATION SIDE OF THE LOW HAVE SUBSIDED IN
CNY...WITH JUST LGT-MDT LEFTOVER SHWRS. A CONVECTIVE LN ACRS NE PA
IS TRANSLATING SEWD...AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE FA BY 21-23Z. FOR
THESE REASONS...THE FF WATCH ACRS PTNS OF CNY HAS BEEN CANCELLED EARLY.

AFTER ANY RESIDUAL SHWRS END EARLY THIS EVE...THE REST OF THE NGT
SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE...WITH CLDNS EARLY ON GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE. THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING WILL BE KEY TO HOW
MUCH...IF ANY VLY FOG FORMS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S-MID 50S MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PULLING INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING THE
SHOWERS TO AN END BY 06Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT SYR AND RME
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LEAVING VFR IN ITS WAKE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, IFR EXPECTED ACROSS ITH AND ELM THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER THIS TIME, CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LEAVING IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG THROUGH 12Z BEFORE IMPROVING. AT BGM AND AVP, EXPECT JUST
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.

AFTER 15Z TUESDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP
IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS OUT OF THE WNW FROM 5-10KTS NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 282331
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
731 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
4 PM MON UPDATE... THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS FINALLY OPENING
UP LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVING ENEWD INTO NEW ENG. AS SUCH...THE
HVYR RAINS ON THE DEFORMATION SIDE OF THE LOW HAVE SUBSIDED IN
CNY...WITH JUST LGT-MDT LEFTOVER SHWRS. A CONVECTIVE LN ACRS NE PA
IS TRANSLATING SEWD...AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE FA BY 21-23Z. FOR
THESE REASONS...THE FF WATCH ACRS PTNS OF CNY HAS BEEN CANCELLED EARLY.

AFTER ANY RESIDUAL SHWRS END EARLY THIS EVE...THE REST OF THE NGT
SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE...WITH CLDNS EARLY ON GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE. THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING WILL BE KEY TO HOW
MUCH...IF ANY VLY FOG FORMS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S-MID 50S MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PULLING INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING THE
SHOWERS TO AN END BY 06Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT SYR AND RME
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LEAVING VFR IN ITS WAKE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, IFR EXPECTED ACROSS ITH AND ELM THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER THIS TIME, CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LEAVING IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG THROUGH 12Z BEFORE IMPROVING. AT BGM AND AVP, EXPECT JUST
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.

AFTER 15Z TUESDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP
IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS OUT OF THE WNW FROM 5-10KTS NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 282013
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
413 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
4 PM MON UPDATE... THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS FINALLY OPENING
UP LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVING ENEWD INTO NEW ENG. AS SUCH...THE
HVYR RAINS ON THE DEFORMATION SIDE OF THE LOW HAVE SUBSIDED IN
CNY...WITH JUST LGT-MDT LEFTOVER SHWRS. A CONVECTIVE LN ACRS NE PA
IS TRANSLATING SEWD...AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE FA BY 21-23Z. FOR
THESE REASONS...THE FF WATCH ACRS PTNS OF CNY HAS BEEN CANCELLED EARLY.

AFTER ANY RESIDUAL SHWRS END EARLY THIS EVE...THE REST OF THE NGT
SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE...WITH CLDNS EARLY ON GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE. THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING WILL BE KEY TO HOW
MUCH...IF ANY VLY FOG FORMS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S-MID 50S MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE CYCLONE TRANSLATING ACROSS NY STATE WILL SPIN SHOWERS
OVER THE NY TERMINALS THROUGH 23Z-01Z, WHERE AFTER SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE. HEAVY SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BORDERLINE IFR RESTRICTIONS
(1SM TO 3SM VIS, 600-1500 FT CIGS) MAINLY THROUGH SUNSET.

LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ELM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 282013
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
413 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
4 PM MON UPDATE... THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS FINALLY OPENING
UP LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVING ENEWD INTO NEW ENG. AS SUCH...THE
HVYR RAINS ON THE DEFORMATION SIDE OF THE LOW HAVE SUBSIDED IN
CNY...WITH JUST LGT-MDT LEFTOVER SHWRS. A CONVECTIVE LN ACRS NE PA
IS TRANSLATING SEWD...AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE FA BY 21-23Z. FOR
THESE REASONS...THE FF WATCH ACRS PTNS OF CNY HAS BEEN CANCELLED EARLY.

AFTER ANY RESIDUAL SHWRS END EARLY THIS EVE...THE REST OF THE NGT
SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE...WITH CLDNS EARLY ON GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE. THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING WILL BE KEY TO HOW
MUCH...IF ANY VLY FOG FORMS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S-MID 50S MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE CYCLONE TRANSLATING ACROSS NY STATE WILL SPIN SHOWERS
OVER THE NY TERMINALS THROUGH 23Z-01Z, WHERE AFTER SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE. HEAVY SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BORDERLINE IFR RESTRICTIONS
(1SM TO 3SM VIS, 600-1500 FT CIGS) MAINLY THROUGH SUNSET.

LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ELM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 281713
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
113 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1125 AM UPDATE... NEAR-TERM FF WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR NRN
FINGER LAKES CNTYS...INCLUDING SYR METRO...AND THE WRN MOHAWK
VLY/SRN TUG HILL AREAS. THE LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
SLOW ENEWD TRANSLATION OF DEFORMATION BAND DYNAMICS ACRS THE WATCH AREA
THIS AFTN...ALG WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS/LOCALLY VERY HVY RAINFALL RATES.

NO OTHER SIG CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC... 1030 AM UPDATE... WE`RE BCMG A BIT MORE CONCERNED
WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTN FOR OUR NRN AND WRN ZNS.
STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO PIVOT SLOWLY NEWD ACRS
NY STATE...WITH WARM CONVEYOR TYPE INFLOW AND UPR-LVL DIFFLUENCE
ON THE NRN/WRN SIDES OF THE CYCLONE FEEDING HVYR/MORE PERSISTENT
RAINFALL. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A BIT FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION (ML CAPES NEAR 500 J/KG LATE THIS MRNG)...WITH
TSTMS OBVIOUSLY RESULTING IN DECENT RAINFALL RATES (AT
TIMES...1-2"/HR). THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE (HRRR/RUC13)
INDICATES THAT THIS ABV DESCRIBED HVY RAIN POTENTIAL AREA SHOULD
LIFT NEWD WITH TIME THROUGH 18-21Z...HOPEFULLY LIMITING ANY
SERIOUS PROBLEMS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT OUT FOR
SHORT-TERM HVY DOWNPOURS. WE ARE NOT YET QUITE CONCERNED ENUF FOR
A TARGETED FF WATCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

ELSEWHERE...JUST ISOLD-SCTD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD MID-LVL TEMPS. HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL BE COOL
FOR LATE JULY (UPR 60S-MID 70S).

EARLIER DISC... 630 AM UPDATE...RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHRA ACRS
NRN NY MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES N. THERE WAS A PATCH OF SHRA
IN NE PA MOVG ENE. THE PRECIP IN SC NY AND NE PA WILL CLEAR FOR A
WHILE THIS MORNING AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND ASSCTD SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
WRAP ARND MOISTURE WORKS ACRS C NY AND FAR NRN PA THIS AFTERNOON
TO ERLY EVE. LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NE PA. MADE
TWEAKS TO GRIDS AND KEPT SC NY AND NE PA MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING
AND BRING PRECIP BACK TO THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.

FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE CYCLONE TRANSLATING ACROSS NY STATE WILL SPIN SHOWERS
OVER THE NY TERMINALS THROUGH 23Z-01Z, WHERE AFTER SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE. HEAVY SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BORDERLINE IFR RESTRICTIONS
(1SM TO 3SM VIS, 600-1500 FT CIGS) MAINLY THROUGH SUNSET.

LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ELM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 281713
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
113 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1125 AM UPDATE... NEAR-TERM FF WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR NRN
FINGER LAKES CNTYS...INCLUDING SYR METRO...AND THE WRN MOHAWK
VLY/SRN TUG HILL AREAS. THE LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
SLOW ENEWD TRANSLATION OF DEFORMATION BAND DYNAMICS ACRS THE WATCH AREA
THIS AFTN...ALG WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS/LOCALLY VERY HVY RAINFALL RATES.

NO OTHER SIG CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC... 1030 AM UPDATE... WE`RE BCMG A BIT MORE CONCERNED
WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTN FOR OUR NRN AND WRN ZNS.
STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO PIVOT SLOWLY NEWD ACRS
NY STATE...WITH WARM CONVEYOR TYPE INFLOW AND UPR-LVL DIFFLUENCE
ON THE NRN/WRN SIDES OF THE CYCLONE FEEDING HVYR/MORE PERSISTENT
RAINFALL. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A BIT FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION (ML CAPES NEAR 500 J/KG LATE THIS MRNG)...WITH
TSTMS OBVIOUSLY RESULTING IN DECENT RAINFALL RATES (AT
TIMES...1-2"/HR). THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE (HRRR/RUC13)
INDICATES THAT THIS ABV DESCRIBED HVY RAIN POTENTIAL AREA SHOULD
LIFT NEWD WITH TIME THROUGH 18-21Z...HOPEFULLY LIMITING ANY
SERIOUS PROBLEMS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT OUT FOR
SHORT-TERM HVY DOWNPOURS. WE ARE NOT YET QUITE CONCERNED ENUF FOR
A TARGETED FF WATCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

ELSEWHERE...JUST ISOLD-SCTD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD MID-LVL TEMPS. HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL BE COOL
FOR LATE JULY (UPR 60S-MID 70S).

EARLIER DISC... 630 AM UPDATE...RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHRA ACRS
NRN NY MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES N. THERE WAS A PATCH OF SHRA
IN NE PA MOVG ENE. THE PRECIP IN SC NY AND NE PA WILL CLEAR FOR A
WHILE THIS MORNING AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND ASSCTD SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
WRAP ARND MOISTURE WORKS ACRS C NY AND FAR NRN PA THIS AFTERNOON
TO ERLY EVE. LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NE PA. MADE
TWEAKS TO GRIDS AND KEPT SC NY AND NE PA MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING
AND BRING PRECIP BACK TO THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.

FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE CYCLONE TRANSLATING ACROSS NY STATE WILL SPIN SHOWERS
OVER THE NY TERMINALS THROUGH 23Z-01Z, WHERE AFTER SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE. HEAVY SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BORDERLINE IFR RESTRICTIONS
(1SM TO 3SM VIS, 600-1500 FT CIGS) MAINLY THROUGH SUNSET.

LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ELM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 281527
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1127 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1125 AM UPDATE... NEAR-TERM FF WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR NRN
FINGER LAKES CNTYS...INCLUDING SYR METRO...AND THE WRN MOHAWK
VLY/SRN TUG HILL AREAS. THE LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
SLOW ENEWD TRANSLATION OF DEFORMATION BAND DYNAMICS ACRS THE WATCH AREA
THIS AFTN...ALG WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS/LOCALLY VERY HVY RAINFALL RATES.

NO OTHER SIG CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC... 1030 AM UPDATE... WE`RE BCMG A BIT MORE CONCERNED
WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTN FOR OUR NRN AND WRN ZNS.
STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO PIVOT SLOWLY NEWD ACRS
NY STATE...WITH WARM CONVEYOR TYPE INFLOW AND UPR-LVL DIFFLUENCE
ON THE NRN/WRN SIDES OF THE CYCLONE FEEDING HVYR/MORE PERSISTENT
RAINFALL. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A BIT FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION (ML CAPES NEAR 500 J/KG LATE THIS MRNG)...WITH
TSTMS OBVIOUSLY RESULTING IN DECENT RAINFALL RATES (AT
TIMES...1-2"/HR). THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE (HRRR/RUC13)
INDICATES THAT THIS ABV DESCRIBED HVY RAIN POTENTIAL AREA SHOULD
LIFT NEWD WITH TIME THROUGH 18-21Z...HOPEFULLY LIMITING ANY
SERIOUS PROBLEMS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT OUT FOR
SHORT-TERM HVY DOWNPOURS. WE ARE NOT YET QUITE CONCERNED ENUF FOR
A TARGETED FF WATCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

ELSEWHERE...JUST ISOLD-SCTD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD MID-LVL TEMPS. HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL BE COOL
FOR LATE JULY (UPR 60S-MID 70S).

EARLIER DISC... 630 AM UPDATE...RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHRA ACRS
NRN NY MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES N. THERE WAS A PATCH OF SHRA
IN NE PA MOVG ENE. THE PRECIP IN SC NY AND NE PA WILL CLEAR FOR A
WHILE THIS MORNING AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND ASSCTD SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
WRAP ARND MOISTURE WORKS ACRS C NY AND FAR NRN PA THIS AFTERNOON
TO ERLY EVE. LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NE PA. MADE
TWEAKS TO GRIDS AND KEPT SC NY AND NE PA MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING
AND BRING PRECIP BACK TO THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.

FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES IN THE VCNTY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW MVFR
CATEGORY AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AT KITH/KBGM/KSYR
IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR. THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO VFR AS SHOWERS END AND SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURS.

WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 281527
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1127 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1125 AM UPDATE... NEAR-TERM FF WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR NRN
FINGER LAKES CNTYS...INCLUDING SYR METRO...AND THE WRN MOHAWK
VLY/SRN TUG HILL AREAS. THE LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
SLOW ENEWD TRANSLATION OF DEFORMATION BAND DYNAMICS ACRS THE WATCH AREA
THIS AFTN...ALG WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS/LOCALLY VERY HVY RAINFALL RATES.

NO OTHER SIG CHANGES ATTM.

PREV DISC... 1030 AM UPDATE... WE`RE BCMG A BIT MORE CONCERNED
WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTN FOR OUR NRN AND WRN ZNS.
STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO PIVOT SLOWLY NEWD ACRS
NY STATE...WITH WARM CONVEYOR TYPE INFLOW AND UPR-LVL DIFFLUENCE
ON THE NRN/WRN SIDES OF THE CYCLONE FEEDING HVYR/MORE PERSISTENT
RAINFALL. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A BIT FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION (ML CAPES NEAR 500 J/KG LATE THIS MRNG)...WITH
TSTMS OBVIOUSLY RESULTING IN DECENT RAINFALL RATES (AT
TIMES...1-2"/HR). THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE (HRRR/RUC13)
INDICATES THAT THIS ABV DESCRIBED HVY RAIN POTENTIAL AREA SHOULD
LIFT NEWD WITH TIME THROUGH 18-21Z...HOPEFULLY LIMITING ANY
SERIOUS PROBLEMS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT OUT FOR
SHORT-TERM HVY DOWNPOURS. WE ARE NOT YET QUITE CONCERNED ENUF FOR
A TARGETED FF WATCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

ELSEWHERE...JUST ISOLD-SCTD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD MID-LVL TEMPS. HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL BE COOL
FOR LATE JULY (UPR 60S-MID 70S).

EARLIER DISC... 630 AM UPDATE...RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHRA ACRS
NRN NY MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES N. THERE WAS A PATCH OF SHRA
IN NE PA MOVG ENE. THE PRECIP IN SC NY AND NE PA WILL CLEAR FOR A
WHILE THIS MORNING AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND ASSCTD SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
WRAP ARND MOISTURE WORKS ACRS C NY AND FAR NRN PA THIS AFTERNOON
TO ERLY EVE. LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NE PA. MADE
TWEAKS TO GRIDS AND KEPT SC NY AND NE PA MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING
AND BRING PRECIP BACK TO THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.

FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES IN THE VCNTY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW MVFR
CATEGORY AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AT KITH/KBGM/KSYR
IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR. THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO VFR AS SHOWERS END AND SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURS.

WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 281432
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1032 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE... WE`RE BCMG A BIT MORE CONCERNED WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTN FOR OUR NRN AND WRN ZNS. STACKED LOW PRES
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO PIVOT SLOWLY NEWD ACRS NY STATE...WITH
WARM CONVEYOR TYPE INFLOW AND UPR-LVL DIFFLUENCE ON THE NRN/WRN
SIDES OF THE CYCLONE FEEDING HVYR/MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL. COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN A BIT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION (ML CAPES NEAR
500 J/KG LATE THIS MRNG)...WITH TSTMS OBVIOUSLY RESULTING IN
DECENT RAINFALL RATES (AT TIMES...1-2"/HR). THE LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR/RUC13) INDICATES THAT THIS ABV DESCRIBED HVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AREA SHOULD LIFT NEWD WITH TIME THROUGH
18-21Z...HOPEFULLY LIMITING ANY SERIOUS PROBLEMS. FOR NOW...WE
HAVE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT OUT FOR SHORT-TERM HVY DOWNPOURS. WE
ARE NOT YET QUITE CONCERNED ENUF FOR A TARGETED FF WATCH...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

ELSEWHERE...JUST ISOLD-SCTD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD MID-LVL TEMPS. HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL BE COOL
FOR LATE JULY (UPR 60S-MID 70S).

PREV DISC... 630 AM UPDATE...RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHRA
ACRS NRN NY MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES N. THERE WAS A PATCH OF
SHRA IN NE PA MOVG ENE. THE PRECIP IN SC NY AND NE PA WILL CLEAR
FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT WRAP ARND MOISTURE WORKS ACRS C NY AND FAR NRN PA THIS
AFTERNOON TO ERLY EVE. LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NE PA.
MADE TWEAKS TO GRIDS AND KEPT SC NY AND NE PA MOSTLY DRY THIS
MORNING AND BRING PRECIP BACK TO THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

EARLIER DISCUSSION... RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND
INTO LAKE ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF
THE REGION SAW MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE
WHICH WAS MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER
NC PA AND SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD
REACHING ALY AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO
CENTRAL NY AND CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP
AND MOST OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH
MORE SCT ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED
AND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF
THE DAY AS THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED
TO ABV WILL USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY
POPS AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR
EVOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.

FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES IN THE VCNTY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW MVFR
CATEGORY AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AT KITH/KBGM/KSYR
IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR. THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO VFR AS SHOWERS END AND SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURS.

WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 281432
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1032 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE... WE`RE BCMG A BIT MORE CONCERNED WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTN FOR OUR NRN AND WRN ZNS. STACKED LOW PRES
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO PIVOT SLOWLY NEWD ACRS NY STATE...WITH
WARM CONVEYOR TYPE INFLOW AND UPR-LVL DIFFLUENCE ON THE NRN/WRN
SIDES OF THE CYCLONE FEEDING HVYR/MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL. COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN A BIT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION (ML CAPES NEAR
500 J/KG LATE THIS MRNG)...WITH TSTMS OBVIOUSLY RESULTING IN
DECENT RAINFALL RATES (AT TIMES...1-2"/HR). THE LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR/RUC13) INDICATES THAT THIS ABV DESCRIBED HVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AREA SHOULD LIFT NEWD WITH TIME THROUGH
18-21Z...HOPEFULLY LIMITING ANY SERIOUS PROBLEMS. FOR NOW...WE
HAVE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT OUT FOR SHORT-TERM HVY DOWNPOURS. WE
ARE NOT YET QUITE CONCERNED ENUF FOR A TARGETED FF WATCH...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

ELSEWHERE...JUST ISOLD-SCTD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD MID-LVL TEMPS. HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL BE COOL
FOR LATE JULY (UPR 60S-MID 70S).

PREV DISC... 630 AM UPDATE...RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHRA
ACRS NRN NY MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES N. THERE WAS A PATCH OF
SHRA IN NE PA MOVG ENE. THE PRECIP IN SC NY AND NE PA WILL CLEAR
FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT WRAP ARND MOISTURE WORKS ACRS C NY AND FAR NRN PA THIS
AFTERNOON TO ERLY EVE. LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NE PA.
MADE TWEAKS TO GRIDS AND KEPT SC NY AND NE PA MOSTLY DRY THIS
MORNING AND BRING PRECIP BACK TO THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

EARLIER DISCUSSION... RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND
INTO LAKE ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF
THE REGION SAW MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE
WHICH WAS MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER
NC PA AND SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD
REACHING ALY AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO
CENTRAL NY AND CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP
AND MOST OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH
MORE SCT ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED
AND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF
THE DAY AS THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED
TO ABV WILL USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY
POPS AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR
EVOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.

FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES IN THE VCNTY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW MVFR
CATEGORY AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AT KITH/KBGM/KSYR
IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR. THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO VFR AS SHOWERS END AND SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURS.

WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 281049
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
649 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHRA ACRS NRN NY
MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES N. THERE WAS A PATCH OF SHRA IN NE
PA MOVG ENE. THE PRECIP IN SC NY AND NE PA WILL CLEAR FOR A WHILE
THIS MORNING AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
ASSCTD SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAP
ARND MOISTURE WORKS ACRS C NY AND FAR NRN PA THIS AFTERNOON TO
ERLY EVE. LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NE PA. MADE TWEAKES TO
GRIDS AND KEPT SC NY AND NE PA MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING AND BRING
PRECIP BACK TO THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND INTO LAKE
ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION SAW
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH WAS
MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER NC PA AND
SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD REACHING ALY
AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY AND
CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AND MOST
OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH MORE SCT
ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED AND WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF THE DAY AS
THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED TO ABV WILL
USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY POPS AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR EVOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.

FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES IN THE VCNTY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW MVFR
CATEGORY AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AT KITH/KBGM/KSYR
IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR. THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO VFR AS SHOWERS END AND SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURS.

WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 281049
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
649 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHRA ACRS NRN NY
MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES N. THERE WAS A PATCH OF SHRA IN NE
PA MOVG ENE. THE PRECIP IN SC NY AND NE PA WILL CLEAR FOR A WHILE
THIS MORNING AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
ASSCTD SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAP
ARND MOISTURE WORKS ACRS C NY AND FAR NRN PA THIS AFTERNOON TO
ERLY EVE. LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NE PA. MADE TWEAKES TO
GRIDS AND KEPT SC NY AND NE PA MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING AND BRING
PRECIP BACK TO THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND INTO LAKE
ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION SAW
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH WAS
MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER NC PA AND
SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD REACHING ALY
AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY AND
CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AND MOST
OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH MORE SCT
ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED AND WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF THE DAY AS
THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED TO ABV WILL
USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY POPS AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR EVOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.

FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES IN THE VCNTY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW MVFR
CATEGORY AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AT KITH/KBGM/KSYR
IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR. THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO VFR AS SHOWERS END AND SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURS.

WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 281022
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
622 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHRA ACRS NRN NY
MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES N. THERE WAS A PATCH OF SHRA IN NE
PA MOVG ENE. THE PRECIP IN SC NY AND NE PA WILL CLEAR FOR A WHILE
THIS MORNING AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
ASSCTD SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAP
ARND MOISTURE WORKS ACRS C NY AND FAR NRN PA THIS AFTERNOON TO
ERLY EVE. LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NE PA. MADE TWEAKES TO
GRIDS AND KEPT SC NY AND NE PA MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING AND BRING
PRECIP BACK TO THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND INTO LAKE
ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION SAW
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH WAS
MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER NC PA AND
SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD REACHING ALY
AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY AND
CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AND MOST
OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH MORE SCT
ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED AND WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF THE DAY AS
THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED TO ABV WILL
USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY POPS AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR EVOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.

FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL NY DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY TERMINALS REPORTING
VFR CONDITIONS BUT THROUGH DAYBREAK SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LOWER CATEGORY INTO MVFR RANGE. TOWARD DAYBREAK CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR/LOW MVFR RANGE DUE PRIMARILY TO
CIGS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH AT KRME/KSYR MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST.

S/SE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING
LATER TODAY TO 10-15 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 281022
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
622 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHRA ACRS NRN NY
MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES N. THERE WAS A PATCH OF SHRA IN NE
PA MOVG ENE. THE PRECIP IN SC NY AND NE PA WILL CLEAR FOR A WHILE
THIS MORNING AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
ASSCTD SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAP
ARND MOISTURE WORKS ACRS C NY AND FAR NRN PA THIS AFTERNOON TO
ERLY EVE. LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NE PA. MADE TWEAKES TO
GRIDS AND KEPT SC NY AND NE PA MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING AND BRING
PRECIP BACK TO THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND INTO LAKE
ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION SAW
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH WAS
MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER NC PA AND
SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD REACHING ALY
AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY AND
CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AND MOST
OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH MORE SCT
ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED AND WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF THE DAY AS
THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED TO ABV WILL
USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY POPS AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR EVOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.

FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL NY DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY TERMINALS REPORTING
VFR CONDITIONS BUT THROUGH DAYBREAK SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LOWER CATEGORY INTO MVFR RANGE. TOWARD DAYBREAK CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR/LOW MVFR RANGE DUE PRIMARILY TO
CIGS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH AT KRME/KSYR MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST.

S/SE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING
LATER TODAY TO 10-15 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 280903
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
503 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND INTO LAKE
ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION SAW
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH WAS
MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER NC PA AND
SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD REACHING ALY
AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY AND
CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AND MOST
OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH MORE SCT
ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED AND WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF THE DAY AS
THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED TO ABV WILL
USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY POPS AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR EVOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.

FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL NY DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY TERMINALS REPORTING
VFR CONDITIONS BUT THROUGH DAYBREAK SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LOWER CATEGORY INTO MVFR RANGE. TOWARD DAYBREAK CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR/LOW MVFR RANGE DUE PRIMARILY TO
CIGS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH AT KRME/KSYR MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST.

S/SE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING
LATER TODAY TO 10-15 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 280903
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
503 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND INTO LAKE
ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION SAW
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH WAS
MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER NC PA AND
SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD REACHING ALY
AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY AND
CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AND MOST
OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH MORE SCT
ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED AND WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF THE DAY AS
THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED TO ABV WILL
USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY POPS AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR EVOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.

FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL NY DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY TERMINALS REPORTING
VFR CONDITIONS BUT THROUGH DAYBREAK SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LOWER CATEGORY INTO MVFR RANGE. TOWARD DAYBREAK CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR/LOW MVFR RANGE DUE PRIMARILY TO
CIGS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH AT KRME/KSYR MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST.

S/SE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING
LATER TODAY TO 10-15 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 280717
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
317 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND INTO LAKE
ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION SAW
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH WAS
MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER NC PA AND
SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD REACHING ALY
AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY AND
CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AND MOST
OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH MORE SCT
ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED AND WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF THE DAY AS
THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED TO ABV WILL
USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY POPS AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR EVOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.

FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL NY DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY TERMINALS REPORTING
VFR CONDITIONS BUT THROUGH DAYBREAK SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LOWER CATEGORY INTO MVFR RANGE. TOWARD DAYBREAK CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR/LOW MVFR RANGE DUE PRIMARILY TO
CIGS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH AT KRME/KSYR MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST.

S/SE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING
LATER TODAY TO 10-15 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 280717
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
317 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND INTO LAKE
ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION SAW
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH WAS
MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER NC PA AND
SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD REACHING ALY
AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY AND
CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AND MOST
OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH MORE SCT
ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED AND WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF THE DAY AS
THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED TO ABV WILL
USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY POPS AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR EVOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE.
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY.

FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL NY DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY TERMINALS REPORTING
VFR CONDITIONS BUT THROUGH DAYBREAK SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LOWER CATEGORY INTO MVFR RANGE. TOWARD DAYBREAK CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR/LOW MVFR RANGE DUE PRIMARILY TO
CIGS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH AT KRME/KSYR MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST.

S/SE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING
LATER TODAY TO 10-15 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 280545
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT, BRINGING
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1045 PM EDT UPDATE...
DECIDED THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DECREASED ENOUGH TO
CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. JUST LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY BE A
PROBLEM EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 60S AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO PREVAIL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

930 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY BUT SURELY MOVING INTO THE
CWA THIS EVENING AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
BELIEVE THE BULK OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS OVER FOR TONIGHT
BUT WILL LET THE SEVERE WATCH RIDE AS THERE IS STILL A SMALL
CHANCE SOMETHING MAY BECOME SEVERE. IT DOES APPEAR THE MAIN THREAT
NOW MAY BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. PWAT VALUES ARE INCREASING
OVER THE REGION AND ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1.3 INCHES AND EXPECT
THEM TO RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS THAT MOVED
OVER CTP CWA HAVE PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL AND THESE STORMS ARE
STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER
OUR CWA TONIGHT AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE INTO OUR CWA. WE HAVE
DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE AS FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THERE ARE STILL
UNCERTAINTIES ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP. WE WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.

PREVIOUS UPDATE...
630 PM EDT UPDATE...
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

AS THE UPPER LVL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THE SHEAR OVR THE REGION
INCREASES. AS THE SHEAR IMPROVES OVER THE REGION THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE INCREASES AS WELL. WE MISSED THE WINDOW
FOR SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MUCAPE
IS THE HIGHEST OVER THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... AND EVEN
THOUGH IT IS NOT AS HIGH AS IT WAS THIS AFTERNOON... WILL SUSTAIN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LVL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP OVER THIS
REGION AS WELL. DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STRATIFORM
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICANT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORM OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL NY DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY TERMINALS REPORTING
VFR CONDITIONS BUT THROUGH DAYBREAK SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LOWER CATEGORY INTO MVFR RANGE. TOWARD DAYBREAK CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR/LOW MVFR RANGE DUE PRIMARILY TO
CIGS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH AT KRME/KSYR MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST.

S/SE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING
LATER TODAY TO 10-15 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 280545
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT, BRINGING
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1045 PM EDT UPDATE...
DECIDED THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DECREASED ENOUGH TO
CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. JUST LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY BE A
PROBLEM EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 60S AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO PREVAIL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

930 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY BUT SURELY MOVING INTO THE
CWA THIS EVENING AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
BELIEVE THE BULK OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS OVER FOR TONIGHT
BUT WILL LET THE SEVERE WATCH RIDE AS THERE IS STILL A SMALL
CHANCE SOMETHING MAY BECOME SEVERE. IT DOES APPEAR THE MAIN THREAT
NOW MAY BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. PWAT VALUES ARE INCREASING
OVER THE REGION AND ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1.3 INCHES AND EXPECT
THEM TO RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS THAT MOVED
OVER CTP CWA HAVE PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL AND THESE STORMS ARE
STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER
OUR CWA TONIGHT AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE INTO OUR CWA. WE HAVE
DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE AS FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THERE ARE STILL
UNCERTAINTIES ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP. WE WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.

PREVIOUS UPDATE...
630 PM EDT UPDATE...
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

AS THE UPPER LVL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THE SHEAR OVR THE REGION
INCREASES. AS THE SHEAR IMPROVES OVER THE REGION THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE INCREASES AS WELL. WE MISSED THE WINDOW
FOR SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MUCAPE
IS THE HIGHEST OVER THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... AND EVEN
THOUGH IT IS NOT AS HIGH AS IT WAS THIS AFTERNOON... WILL SUSTAIN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LVL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP OVER THIS
REGION AS WELL. DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STRATIFORM
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICANT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORM OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL NY DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY TERMINALS REPORTING
VFR CONDITIONS BUT THROUGH DAYBREAK SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LOWER CATEGORY INTO MVFR RANGE. TOWARD DAYBREAK CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR/LOW MVFR RANGE DUE PRIMARILY TO
CIGS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH AT KRME/KSYR MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST.

S/SE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING
LATER TODAY TO 10-15 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 280253
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1053 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT, BRINGING
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM EDT UPDATE...
DECIDED THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DECREASED ENOUGH TO
CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. JUST LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY BE A
PROBLEM EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 60S AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO PREVAIL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

930 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY BUT SURELY MOVING INTO THE
CWA THIS EVENING AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
BELIEVE THE BULK OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS OVER FOR TONIGHT
BUT WILL LET THE SEVERE WATCH RIDE AS THERE IS STILL A SMALL
CHANCE SOMETHING MAY BECOME SEVERE. IT DOES APPEAR THE MAIN THREAT
NOW MAY BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. PWAT VALUES ARE INCREASING
OVER THE REGION AND ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1.3 INCHES AND EXPECT
THEM TO RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS THAT MOVED
OVER CTP CWA HAVE PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL AND THESE STORMS ARE
STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER
OUR CWA TONIGHT AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE INTO OUR CWA. WE HAVE
DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE AS FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THERE ARE STILL
UNCERTAINTIES ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP. WE WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.

PREVIOUS UPDATE...
630 PM EDT UPDATE...
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

AS THE UPPER LVL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THE SHEAR OVR THE REGION
INCREASES. AS THE SHEAR IMPROVES OVER THE REGION THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE INCREASES AS WELL. WE MISSED THE WINDOW
FOR SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MUCAPE
IS THE HIGHEST OVER THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... AND EVEN
THOUGH IT IS NOT AS HIGH AS IT WAS THIS AFTERNOON... WILL SUSTAIN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LVL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP OVER THIS
REGION AS WELL. DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STRATIFORM
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICANT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORM OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG WV AND COLD FNT APRCHG THIS EVE AND WILL SPREACONV SHWRS
AND TERWS INTO THE AREA. INCRSD MOSITURE WITH THE PCPN WILL LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES INTO THE IFR RANGE OVRNGT. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TWRD MRNG...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE SLOW TO RCVR.
ON MON...BLUSTERY CONDS WITH CAA WILL CREATE MVFR OVC CONDS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH OCNL LGT SHWRS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 280253
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1053 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT, BRINGING
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM EDT UPDATE...
DECIDED THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DECREASED ENOUGH TO
CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. JUST LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY BE A
PROBLEM EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 60S AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO PREVAIL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

930 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY BUT SURELY MOVING INTO THE
CWA THIS EVENING AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
BELIEVE THE BULK OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS OVER FOR TONIGHT
BUT WILL LET THE SEVERE WATCH RIDE AS THERE IS STILL A SMALL
CHANCE SOMETHING MAY BECOME SEVERE. IT DOES APPEAR THE MAIN THREAT
NOW MAY BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. PWAT VALUES ARE INCREASING
OVER THE REGION AND ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1.3 INCHES AND EXPECT
THEM TO RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS THAT MOVED
OVER CTP CWA HAVE PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL AND THESE STORMS ARE
STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER
OUR CWA TONIGHT AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE INTO OUR CWA. WE HAVE
DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE AS FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THERE ARE STILL
UNCERTAINTIES ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP. WE WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.

PREVIOUS UPDATE...
630 PM EDT UPDATE...
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

AS THE UPPER LVL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THE SHEAR OVR THE REGION
INCREASES. AS THE SHEAR IMPROVES OVER THE REGION THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE INCREASES AS WELL. WE MISSED THE WINDOW
FOR SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MUCAPE
IS THE HIGHEST OVER THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... AND EVEN
THOUGH IT IS NOT AS HIGH AS IT WAS THIS AFTERNOON... WILL SUSTAIN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LVL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP OVER THIS
REGION AS WELL. DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STRATIFORM
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICANT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORM OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG WV AND COLD FNT APRCHG THIS EVE AND WILL SPREACONV SHWRS
AND TERWS INTO THE AREA. INCRSD MOSITURE WITH THE PCPN WILL LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES INTO THE IFR RANGE OVRNGT. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TWRD MRNG...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE SLOW TO RCVR.
ON MON...BLUSTERY CONDS WITH CAA WILL CREATE MVFR OVC CONDS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH OCNL LGT SHWRS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ









000
FXUS61 KBGM 280157
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
957 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT, BRINGING
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
930 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY BUT SURELY MOVING INTO THE
CWA THIS EVENING AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
BELIEVE THE BULK OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS OVER FOR TONIGHT
BUT WILL LET THE SEVERE WATCH RIDE AS THERE IS STILL A SMALL
CHANCE SOMETHING MAY BECOME SEVERE. IT DOES APPEAR THE MAIN THREAT
NOW MAY BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. PWAT VALUES ARE INCREASING
OVER THE REGION AND ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1.3 INCHES AND EXPECT
THEM TO RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS THAT MOVED
OVER CTP CWA HAVE PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL AND THESE STORMS ARE
STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER
OUR CWA TONIGHT AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE INTO OUR CWA. WE HAVE
DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE AS FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THERE ARE STILL
UNCERTAINTIES ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP. WE WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.

PREVIOUS UPDATE...
630 PM EDT UPDATE...
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

AS THE UPPER LVL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THE SHEAR OVR THE REGION
INCREASES. AS THE SHEAR IMPROVES OVER THE REGION THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE INCREASES AS WELL. WE MISSED THE WINDOW
FOR SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MUCAPE
IS THE HIGHEST OVER THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... AND EVEN
THOUGH IT IS NOT AS HIGH AS IT WAS THIS AFTERNOON... WILL SUSTAIN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LVL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP OVER THIS
REGION AS WELL. DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND HEAVY RAINFALL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STRATIFORM
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICANT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORM OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG WV AND COLD FNT APRCHG THIS EVE AND WILL SPREACONV SHWRS
AND TERWS INTO THE AREA. INCRSD MOSITURE WITH THE PCPN WILL LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES INTO THE IFR RANGE OVRNGT. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TWRD MRNG...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE SLOW TO RCVR.
ON MON...BLUSTERY CONDS WITH CAA WILL CREATE MVFR OVC CONDS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH OCNL LGT SHWRS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ









000
FXUS61 KBGM 280157
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
957 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT, BRINGING
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
930 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY BUT SURELY MOVING INTO THE
CWA THIS EVENING AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
BELIEVE THE BULK OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS OVER FOR TONIGHT
BUT WILL LET THE SEVERE WATCH RIDE AS THERE IS STILL A SMALL
CHANCE SOMETHING MAY BECOME SEVERE. IT DOES APPEAR THE MAIN THREAT
NOW MAY BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. PWAT VALUES ARE INCREASING
OVER THE REGION AND ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1.3 INCHES AND EXPECT
THEM TO RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS THAT MOVED
OVER CTP CWA HAVE PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL AND THESE STORMS ARE
STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER
OUR CWA TONIGHT AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE INTO OUR CWA. WE HAVE
DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE AS FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THERE ARE STILL
UNCERTAINTIES ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP. WE WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.

PREVIOUS UPDATE...
630 PM EDT UPDATE...
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

AS THE UPPER LVL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THE SHEAR OVR THE REGION
INCREASES. AS THE SHEAR IMPROVES OVER THE REGION THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE INCREASES AS WELL. WE MISSED THE WINDOW
FOR SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MUCAPE
IS THE HIGHEST OVER THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... AND EVEN
THOUGH IT IS NOT AS HIGH AS IT WAS THIS AFTERNOON... WILL SUSTAIN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LVL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP OVER THIS
REGION AS WELL. DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND HEAVY RAINFALL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STRATIFORM
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICANT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORM OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG WV AND COLD FNT APRCHG THIS EVE AND WILL SPREACONV SHWRS
AND TERWS INTO THE AREA. INCRSD MOSITURE WITH THE PCPN WILL LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES INTO THE IFR RANGE OVRNGT. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TWRD MRNG...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE SLOW TO RCVR.
ON MON...BLUSTERY CONDS WITH CAA WILL CREATE MVFR OVC CONDS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH OCNL LGT SHWRS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 272340
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
740 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT, BRINGING
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
630 PM EDT UPDATE...
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

AS THE UPPER LVL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THE SHEAR OVR THE REGION
INCREASES. AS THE SHEAR IMPROVES OVER THE REGION THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE INCREASES AS WELL. WE MISSED THE WINDOW
FOR SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MUCAPE
IS THE HIGHEST OVER THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... AND EVEN
THOUGH IT IS NOT AS HIGH AS IT WAS THIS AFTERNOON... WILL SUSTAIN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LVL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP OVER THIS
REGION AS WELL. DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
530 PM EDT UPDATE...
ITS STILL FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WE ARE
STARTING TO SEE THE SKY COVERAGE INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND THE MOISTURE
ATTENDANT WITH THAT SYSTEM STARTS TO PUSH IN. MUCAPE SEEMS TO BE
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WITH THE SUN STARTING TO SET EXPECT US TO SEE
A SLOW DECREASE IN MUCAPE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THERE
ARE A COUPLE FACTORS THAT LOOK TO OPPOSE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. ONE IS WE STILL LACK STRONG UPPR LVL FORCING AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALSO LOOKS TO LOOK WEAK ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO
HAVE STEEP LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES... SO IF SOMETHING DOES
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE... STORMS MAY BE MORE ON THE
STRONG SIDE THAN SEVERE. WE ARE STILL MONITORING THE SITUATION
CLOSELY.

STILL EXPECT THE MAIN SHOW TO BE LATER THAN EARLIER. WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERALL TONIGHT WILL
BE HEAVY RAINFALL... AND THE SECONDARY THREATS MAY BE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST...

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1045 AM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE INDUCED CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL EASTWARD, LEAVING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN FA. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS IN RECOVERY MODE AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE EXIST INTERESTING
SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (12Z AT BUF, PIT, DTX) WHICH SUGGEST
FUTURE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT.

NOTABLE ON THE SOUNDINGS ARE AMPLE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS ALOFT AND
OBVIOUS ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS. SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ARE MODEST,
BUT APPEAR SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SPC MESOSCALE PAGE SHOWS AMPLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (>7C)
UPSTREAM, WHILE SPC VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE 2-4 RANGE FROM THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER DOWN TOWARD PIT.

WE LACK AN OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT IF WE
CAN GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF PEAK HEATING, STRONG CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY LATE IN THE
DAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STRATIFORM
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICANT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORM OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

STRONG WV AND COLD FNT APRCHG THIS EVE AND WILL SPREACONV SHWRS
AND TERWS INTO THE AREA. INCRSD MOSITURE WITH THE PCPN WILL LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES INTO THE IFR RANGE OVRNGT. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TWRD MRNG...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE SLOW TO RCVR.
ON MON...BLUSTERY CONDS WITH CAA WILL CREATE MVFR OVC CONDS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH OCNL LGT SHWRS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 272340
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
740 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT, BRINGING
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
630 PM EDT UPDATE...
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

AS THE UPPER LVL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THE SHEAR OVR THE REGION
INCREASES. AS THE SHEAR IMPROVES OVER THE REGION THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE INCREASES AS WELL. WE MISSED THE WINDOW
FOR SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MUCAPE
IS THE HIGHEST OVER THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... AND EVEN
THOUGH IT IS NOT AS HIGH AS IT WAS THIS AFTERNOON... WILL SUSTAIN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LVL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP OVER THIS
REGION AS WELL. DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
530 PM EDT UPDATE...
ITS STILL FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WE ARE
STARTING TO SEE THE SKY COVERAGE INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND THE MOISTURE
ATTENDANT WITH THAT SYSTEM STARTS TO PUSH IN. MUCAPE SEEMS TO BE
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WITH THE SUN STARTING TO SET EXPECT US TO SEE
A SLOW DECREASE IN MUCAPE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THERE
ARE A COUPLE FACTORS THAT LOOK TO OPPOSE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. ONE IS WE STILL LACK STRONG UPPR LVL FORCING AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALSO LOOKS TO LOOK WEAK ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO
HAVE STEEP LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES... SO IF SOMETHING DOES
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE... STORMS MAY BE MORE ON THE
STRONG SIDE THAN SEVERE. WE ARE STILL MONITORING THE SITUATION
CLOSELY.

STILL EXPECT THE MAIN SHOW TO BE LATER THAN EARLIER. WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERALL TONIGHT WILL
BE HEAVY RAINFALL... AND THE SECONDARY THREATS MAY BE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST...

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1045 AM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE INDUCED CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL EASTWARD, LEAVING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN FA. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS IN RECOVERY MODE AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE EXIST INTERESTING
SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (12Z AT BUF, PIT, DTX) WHICH SUGGEST
FUTURE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT.

NOTABLE ON THE SOUNDINGS ARE AMPLE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS ALOFT AND
OBVIOUS ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS. SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ARE MODEST,
BUT APPEAR SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SPC MESOSCALE PAGE SHOWS AMPLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (>7C)
UPSTREAM, WHILE SPC VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE 2-4 RANGE FROM THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER DOWN TOWARD PIT.

WE LACK AN OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT IF WE
CAN GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF PEAK HEATING, STRONG CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY LATE IN THE
DAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STRATIFORM
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICANT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORM OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

STRONG WV AND COLD FNT APRCHG THIS EVE AND WILL SPREACONV SHWRS
AND TERWS INTO THE AREA. INCRSD MOSITURE WITH THE PCPN WILL LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES INTO THE IFR RANGE OVRNGT. ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TWRD MRNG...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE SLOW TO RCVR.
ON MON...BLUSTERY CONDS WITH CAA WILL CREATE MVFR OVC CONDS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH OCNL LGT SHWRS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBGM 272305
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
705 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT, BRINGING
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
630 PM EDT UPDATE...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

AS THE UPPER LVL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THE SHEAR OVR THE REGION
INCREASES. AS THE SHEAR IMPROVES OVER THE REGION THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE INCREASES AS WELL. WE MISSED THE WINDOW
FOR SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MUCAPE
IS THE HIGHEST OVER THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... AND EVEN
THOUGH IT IS NOT AS HIGH AS IT WAS THIS AFTERNOON... WILL SUSTAIN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LVL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP OVER THIS
REGION AS WELL. DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
530 PM EDT UPDATE...
ITS STILL FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WE ARE
STARTING TO SEE THE SKY COVERAGE INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND THE MOISTURE
ATTENDANT WITH THAT SYSTEM STARTS TO PUSH IN. MUCAPE SEEMS TO BE
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WITH THE SUN STARTING TO SET EXPECT US TO SEE
A SLOW DECREASE IN MUCAPE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THERE
ARE A COUPLE FACTORS THAT LOOK TO OPPOSE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. ONE IS WE STILL LACK STRONG UPPR LVL FORCING AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALSO LOOKS TO LOOK WEAK ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO
HAVE STEEP LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES... SO IF SOMETHING DOES
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE... STORMS MAY BE MORE ON THE
STRONG SIDE THAN SEVERE. WE ARE STILL MONITORING THE SITUATION
CLOSELY.

STILL EXPECT THE MAIN SHOW TO BE LATER THAN EARLIER. WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERALL TONIGHT WILL
BE HEAVY RAINFALL... AND THE SECONDARY THREATS MAY BE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST...

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1045 AM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE INDUCED CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL EASTWARD, LEAVING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN FA. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS IN RECOVERY MODE AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE EXIST INTERESTING
SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (12Z AT BUF, PIT, DTX) WHICH SUGGEST
FUTURE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT.

NOTABLE ON THE SOUNDINGS ARE AMPLE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS ALOFT AND
OBVIOUS ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS. SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ARE MODEST,
BUT APPEAR SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SPC MESOSCALE PAGE SHOWS AMPLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (>7C)
UPSTREAM, WHILE SPC VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE 2-4 RANGE FROM THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER DOWN TOWARD PIT.

WE LACK AN OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT IF WE
CAN GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF PEAK HEATING, STRONG CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY LATE IN THE
DAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STRATIFORM
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICANT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORM OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUN UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. ISOLD
SHWRS/TSTMS ARE PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR/KRME...BUT
WE`VE NOT ADDED TO THE TERMINAL FCSTS ATTM DUE TO THEIR
ANTICIPATED SPARSE COVERAGE.

SHWRS/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
EVE/OVERNIGHT. THUS...WE`VE GONE WITH AREA-WIDE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDS MOST READILY SEEN
ON THE HILLTOPS AT KBGM AND KITH. TSTMS SEEM MOST LIKELY AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVE...SO WE`VE INSERTED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA ONLY AT KELM AND KAVP FOR THE TIME BEING.

MON MRNG...CONDS SHOULD BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE...THEREFORE
RESTRICTIONS (MAINLY MVFR) ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST.

W TO SW SFC WINDS ARND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL
BECOME LGT AND VRBL TNT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE N AND NW
MON...AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 272305
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
705 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT, BRINGING
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
630 PM EDT UPDATE...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

AS THE UPPER LVL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA THE SHEAR OVR THE REGION
INCREASES. AS THE SHEAR IMPROVES OVER THE REGION THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE INCREASES AS WELL. WE MISSED THE WINDOW
FOR SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MUCAPE
IS THE HIGHEST OVER THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... AND EVEN
THOUGH IT IS NOT AS HIGH AS IT WAS THIS AFTERNOON... WILL SUSTAIN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LVL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP OVER THIS
REGION AS WELL. DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
530 PM EDT UPDATE...
ITS STILL FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WE ARE
STARTING TO SEE THE SKY COVERAGE INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND THE MOISTURE
ATTENDANT WITH THAT SYSTEM STARTS TO PUSH IN. MUCAPE SEEMS TO BE
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WITH THE SUN STARTING TO SET EXPECT US TO SEE
A SLOW DECREASE IN MUCAPE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THERE
ARE A COUPLE FACTORS THAT LOOK TO OPPOSE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. ONE IS WE STILL LACK STRONG UPPR LVL FORCING AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALSO LOOKS TO LOOK WEAK ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO
HAVE STEEP LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES... SO IF SOMETHING DOES
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE... STORMS MAY BE MORE ON THE
STRONG SIDE THAN SEVERE. WE ARE STILL MONITORING THE SITUATION
CLOSELY.

STILL EXPECT THE MAIN SHOW TO BE LATER THAN EARLIER. WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERALL TONIGHT WILL
BE HEAVY RAINFALL... AND THE SECONDARY THREATS MAY BE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST...

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1045 AM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE INDUCED CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL EASTWARD, LEAVING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN FA. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS IN RECOVERY MODE AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE EXIST INTERESTING
SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (12Z AT BUF, PIT, DTX) WHICH SUGGEST
FUTURE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT.

NOTABLE ON THE SOUNDINGS ARE AMPLE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS ALOFT AND
OBVIOUS ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS. SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ARE MODEST,
BUT APPEAR SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SPC MESOSCALE PAGE SHOWS AMPLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (>7C)
UPSTREAM, WHILE SPC VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE 2-4 RANGE FROM THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER DOWN TOWARD PIT.

WE LACK AN OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT IF WE
CAN GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF PEAK HEATING, STRONG CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY LATE IN THE
DAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STRATIFORM
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICANT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORM OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUN UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. ISOLD
SHWRS/TSTMS ARE PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR/KRME...BUT
WE`VE NOT ADDED TO THE TERMINAL FCSTS ATTM DUE TO THEIR
ANTICIPATED SPARSE COVERAGE.

SHWRS/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
EVE/OVERNIGHT. THUS...WE`VE GONE WITH AREA-WIDE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDS MOST READILY SEEN
ON THE HILLTOPS AT KBGM AND KITH. TSTMS SEEM MOST LIKELY AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVE...SO WE`VE INSERTED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA ONLY AT KELM AND KAVP FOR THE TIME BEING.

MON MRNG...CONDS SHOULD BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE...THEREFORE
RESTRICTIONS (MAINLY MVFR) ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST.

W TO SW SFC WINDS ARND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL
BECOME LGT AND VRBL TNT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE N AND NW
MON...AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ









000
FXUS61 KBGM 272157
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
557 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT, BRINGING
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
530 PM EDT UPDATE...
ITS STILL FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WE ARE
STARTING TO SEE THE SKY COVERAGE INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND THE MOISTURE
ATTENDANT WITH THAT SYSTEM STARTS TO PUSH IN. MUCAPE SEEMS TO BE
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WITH THE SUN STARTING TO SET EXPECT US TO SEE
A SLOW DECREASE IN MUCAPE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THERE
ARE A COUPLE FACTORS THAT LOOK TO OPPOSE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. ONE IS WE STILL LACK STRONG UPPR LVL FORCING AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALSO LOOKS TO LOOK WEAK ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO
HAVE STEEP LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES... SO IF SOMETHING DOES
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE... STORMS MAY BE MORE ON THE
STRONG SIDE THAN SEVERE. WE ARE STILL MONITORING THE SITUATION
CLOSELY.

STILL EXPECT THE MAIN SHOW TO BE LATER THAN EARLIER. WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL... AND THE SECONDARY THREATS MAY BE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST...

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1045 AM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE INDUCED CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL EASTWARD, LEAVING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN FA. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS IN RECOVERY MODE AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE EXIST INTERESTING
SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (12Z AT BUF, PIT, DTX) WHICH SUGGEST
FUTURE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT.

NOTABLE ON THE SOUNDINGS ARE AMPLE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS ALOFT AND
OBVIOUS ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS. SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ARE MODEST,
BUT APPEAR SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SPC MESOSCALE PAGE SHOWS AMPLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (>7C)
UPSTREAM, WHILE SPC VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE 2-4 RANGE FROM THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER DOWN TOWARD PIT.

WE LACK AN OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT IF WE
CAN GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF PEAK HEATING, STRONG CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY LATE IN THE
DAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STRATIFORM
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICANT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORM OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUN UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. ISOLD
SHWRS/TSTMS ARE PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR/KRME...BUT
WE`VE NOT ADDED TO THE TERMINAL FCSTS ATTM DUE TO THEIR
ANTICIPATED SPARSE COVERAGE.

SHWRS/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
EVE/OVERNIGHT. THUS...WE`VE GONE WITH AREA-WIDE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDS MOST READILY SEEN
ON THE HILLTOPS AT KBGM AND KITH. TSTMS SEEM MOST LIKELY AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVE...SO WE`VE INSERTED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA ONLY AT KELM AND KAVP FOR THE TIME BEING.

MON MRNG...CONDS SHOULD BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE...THEREFORE
RESTRICTIONS (MAINLY MVFR) ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST.

W TO SW SFC WINDS ARND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL
BECOME LGT AND VRBL TNT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE N AND NW
MON...AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 272157
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
557 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT, BRINGING
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
530 PM EDT UPDATE...
ITS STILL FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WE ARE
STARTING TO SEE THE SKY COVERAGE INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND THE MOISTURE
ATTENDANT WITH THAT SYSTEM STARTS TO PUSH IN. MUCAPE SEEMS TO BE
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WITH THE SUN STARTING TO SET EXPECT US TO SEE
A SLOW DECREASE IN MUCAPE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THERE
ARE A COUPLE FACTORS THAT LOOK TO OPPOSE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. ONE IS WE STILL LACK STRONG UPPR LVL FORCING AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALSO LOOKS TO LOOK WEAK ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO
HAVE STEEP LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES... SO IF SOMETHING DOES
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE... STORMS MAY BE MORE ON THE
STRONG SIDE THAN SEVERE. WE ARE STILL MONITORING THE SITUATION
CLOSELY.

STILL EXPECT THE MAIN SHOW TO BE LATER THAN EARLIER. WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL... AND THE SECONDARY THREATS MAY BE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST...

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1045 AM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE INDUCED CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL EASTWARD, LEAVING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN FA. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS IN RECOVERY MODE AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE EXIST INTERESTING
SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (12Z AT BUF, PIT, DTX) WHICH SUGGEST
FUTURE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT.

NOTABLE ON THE SOUNDINGS ARE AMPLE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS ALOFT AND
OBVIOUS ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS. SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ARE MODEST,
BUT APPEAR SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SPC MESOSCALE PAGE SHOWS AMPLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (>7C)
UPSTREAM, WHILE SPC VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE 2-4 RANGE FROM THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER DOWN TOWARD PIT.

WE LACK AN OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT IF WE
CAN GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF PEAK HEATING, STRONG CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY LATE IN THE
DAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STRATIFORM
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICANT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORM OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUN UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. ISOLD
SHWRS/TSTMS ARE PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR/KRME...BUT
WE`VE NOT ADDED TO THE TERMINAL FCSTS ATTM DUE TO THEIR
ANTICIPATED SPARSE COVERAGE.

SHWRS/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
EVE/OVERNIGHT. THUS...WE`VE GONE WITH AREA-WIDE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDS MOST READILY SEEN
ON THE HILLTOPS AT KBGM AND KITH. TSTMS SEEM MOST LIKELY AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVE...SO WE`VE INSERTED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA ONLY AT KELM AND KAVP FOR THE TIME BEING.

MON MRNG...CONDS SHOULD BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE...THEREFORE
RESTRICTIONS (MAINLY MVFR) ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST.

W TO SW SFC WINDS ARND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL
BECOME LGT AND VRBL TNT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE N AND NW
MON...AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ









000
FXUS61 KBGM 271843
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
243 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT, BRINGING
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE INDUCED CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL EASTWARD, LEAVING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN FA. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS IN RECOVERY MODE AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE EXIST INTERESTING
SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (12Z AT BUF, PIT, DTX) WHICH SUGGEST
FUTURE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT.

NOTABLE ON THE SOUNDINGS ARE AMPLE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS ALOFT AND
OBVIOUS ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS. SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ARE MODEST,
BUT APPEAR SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SPC MESOSCALE PAGE SHOWS AMPLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (>7C)
UPSTREAM, WHILE SPC VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE 2-4 RANGE FROM THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER DOWN TOWARD PIT.

WE LACK AN OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT IF WE
CAN GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF PEAK HEATING, STRONG CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY LATE IN THE
DAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STRATIFORM
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICANT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORM OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUN UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. ISOLD
SHWRS/TSTMS ARE PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR/KRME...BUT
WE`VE NOT ADDED TO THE TERMINAL FCSTS ATTM DUE TO THEIR
ANTICIPATED SPARSE COVERAGE.

SHWRS/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
EVE/OVERNIGHT. THUS...WE`VE GONE WITH AREA-WIDE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDS MOST READILY SEEN
ON THE HILLTOPS AT KBGM AND KITH. TSTMS SEEM MOST LIKELY AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVE...SO WE`VE INSERTED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA ONLY AT KELM AND KAVP FOR THE TIME BEING.

MON MRNG...CONDS SHOULD BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE...THEREFORE
RESTRICTIONS (MAINLY MVFR) ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST.

W TO SW SFC WINDS ARND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL
BECOME LGT AND VRBL TNT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE N AND NW
MON...AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 271843
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
243 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT, BRINGING
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE INDUCED CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL EASTWARD, LEAVING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN FA. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS IN RECOVERY MODE AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE EXIST INTERESTING
SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (12Z AT BUF, PIT, DTX) WHICH SUGGEST
FUTURE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT.

NOTABLE ON THE SOUNDINGS ARE AMPLE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS ALOFT AND
OBVIOUS ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS. SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ARE MODEST,
BUT APPEAR SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SPC MESOSCALE PAGE SHOWS AMPLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (>7C)
UPSTREAM, WHILE SPC VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE 2-4 RANGE FROM THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER DOWN TOWARD PIT.

WE LACK AN OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT IF WE
CAN GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF PEAK HEATING, STRONG CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY LATE IN THE
DAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STRATIFORM
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICANT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORM OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON`S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING.

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUN UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. ISOLD
SHWRS/TSTMS ARE PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR/KRME...BUT
WE`VE NOT ADDED TO THE TERMINAL FCSTS ATTM DUE TO THEIR
ANTICIPATED SPARSE COVERAGE.

SHWRS/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
EVE/OVERNIGHT. THUS...WE`VE GONE WITH AREA-WIDE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDS MOST READILY SEEN
ON THE HILLTOPS AT KBGM AND KITH. TSTMS SEEM MOST LIKELY AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVE...SO WE`VE INSERTED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA ONLY AT KELM AND KAVP FOR THE TIME BEING.

MON MRNG...CONDS SHOULD BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE...THEREFORE
RESTRICTIONS (MAINLY MVFR) ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST.

W TO SW SFC WINDS ARND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL
BECOME LGT AND VRBL TNT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE N AND NW
MON...AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBGM 271840
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
240 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT, BRINGING
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 PM UPDATE...
LAKE SHADOW HAS EXPANDED MARKEDLY IN THE LAST TWO HOURS. COMBINED
WITH AN AMPLE CAP (VIEWABLE ON 12Z UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS), CONVECTION
HAS DIED ACROSS THE FA.

AS THE CAP ERODES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STORM SYSTEM, THERE
WILL EXIST A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP. THIS WINDOW AT FIRST GLANCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE BETWEEN
6 PM AND 10 PM.

100MB ML CAPES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FA, WITH
SCP INDICES OF 2 TO 3. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS MARGINAL (NEAR 30
KTS).

WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN VICINITY, AND AMPLE CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION ALOFT, WE WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHFUL OF STORMS TRANSLATING INTO FA.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. DIGGING
TROF...DEFORMATION ZONE...HIGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT (WHICH CANNOT BE
TAKEN AT FACE VALUE). PWATS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL, SO CONCERN FOR
ISOLATED FLOODING.

1045 AM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE INDUCED CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL EASTWARD, LEAVING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN FA. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS IN RECOVERY MODE AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE EXIST INTERESTING
SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (12Z AT BUF, PIT, DTX) WHICH SUGGEST
FUTURE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT.

NOTABLE ON THE SOUNDINGS ARE AMPLE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS ALOFT AND
OBVIOUS ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS. SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ARE MODEST,
BUT APPEAR SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SPC MESOSCALE PAGE SHOWS AMPLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (>7C)
UPSTREAM, WHILE SPC VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE 2-4 RANGE FROM THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER DOWN TOWARD PIT.

WE LACK AN OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT IF WE
CAN GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF PEAK HEATING, STRONG CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY LATE IN THE
DAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UL LOW WILL STACK WITH SFC CYCLONE OVER FA ON MONDAY. CONTINUING
SHOWER ACTIVITY, CLOUD COVER, AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL THICKNESSES
(561 HEIGHTS AT 500MB) STRONGLY SUGGEST A VERY COOL DAY. MAX TEMPS
NOT LIKELY TO GET OUT OF UPPER 60S ACROSS UPSTATE NY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
CYCLONE WILL PULL NORTHEASTWARD, WHILE THE UL TROF SETS UP TO OUR
WEST WITH AN AXIS FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

DRIER AIR, COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING, SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER
MOSTLY ON THE CLEAR SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED JUST REFRESHED
WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF AREA THROUGHOUT PERIOD. EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
UNDER AN EVER PERSISTENT EASTERN TROF. TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

145 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES AT THE SFC WL BE OVR THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PD. HWVR FLOW ALOFT WL BE DOMINATED BY A L/WV TROF. THIS WL KEEP
SLGT CHCS FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AND GIVE
CREDENCE TO THE WORDS "DIRTY HIGH." HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC
GUIDANCE WITH 20 POPS EACH AFTN ALONG WITH NR NORMAL TEMPS, WITH
HIGHS ARND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUN UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. ISOLD
SHWRS/TSTMS ARE PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR/KRME...BUT
WE`VE NOT ADDED TO THE TERMINAL FCSTS ATTM DUE TO THEIR
ANTICIPATED SPARSE COVERAGE.

SHWRS/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
EVE/OVERNIGHT. THUS...WE`VE GONE WITH AREA-WIDE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDS MOST READILY SEEN
ON THE HILLTOPS AT KBGM AND KITH. TSTMS SEEM MOST LIKELY AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVE...SO WE`VE INSERTED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA ONLY AT KELM AND KAVP FOR THE TIME BEING.

MON MRNG...CONDS SHOULD BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE...THEREFORE
RESTRICTIONS (MAINLY MVFR) ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST.

W TO SW SFC WINDS ARND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL
BECOME LGT AND VRBL TNT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE N AND NW
MON...AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBGM 271821
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT, BRINGING
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE INDUCED CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL EASTWARD, LEAVING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN FA. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS IN RECOVERY MODE AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE EXIST INTERESTING
SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (12Z AT BUF, PIT, DTX) WHICH SUGGEST
FUTURE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT.

NOTABLE ON THE SOUNDINGS ARE AMPLE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS ALOFT AND
OBVIOUS ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS. SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ARE MODEST,
BUT APPEAR SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SPC MESOSCALE PAGE SHOWS AMPLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (>7C)
UPSTREAM, WHILE SPC VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE 2-4 RANGE FROM THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER DOWN TOWARD PIT.

WE LACK AN OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT IF WE
CAN GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF PEAK HEATING, STRONG CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY LATE IN THE
DAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STRATIFORM
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICANT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORM OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED JUST REFRESHED
WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF AREA THROUGHOUT PERIOD. EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
UNDER AN EVER PERSISTENT EASTERN TROF. TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

145 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES AT THE SFC WL BE OVR THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PD. HWVR FLOW ALOFT WL BE DOMINATED BY A L/WV TROF. THIS WL KEEP
SLGT CHCS FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AND GIVE
CREDENCE TO THE WORDS "DIRTY HIGH." HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC
GUIDANCE WITH 20 POPS EACH AFTN ALONG WITH NR NORMAL TEMPS, WITH
HIGHS ARND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUN UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. ISOLD
SHWRS/TSTMS ARE PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR/KRME...BUT
WE`VE NOT ADDED TO THE TERMINAL FCSTS ATTM DUE TO THEIR
ANTICIPATED SPARSE COVERAGE.

SHWRS/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
EVE/OVERNIGHT. THUS...WE`VE GONE WITH AREA-WIDE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDS MOST READILY SEEN
ON THE HILLTOPS AT KBGM AND KITH. TSTMS SEEM MOST LIKELY AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVE...SO WE`VE INSERTED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA ONLY AT KELM AND KAVP FOR THE TIME BEING.

MON MRNG...CONDS SHOULD BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE...THEREFORE
RESTRICTIONS (MAINLY MVFR) ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST.

W TO SW SFC WINDS ARND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL
BECOME LGT AND VRBL TNT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE N AND NW
MON...AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBGM 271821
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT, BRINGING
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE INDUCED CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL EASTWARD, LEAVING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN FA. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS IN RECOVERY MODE AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE EXIST INTERESTING
SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (12Z AT BUF, PIT, DTX) WHICH SUGGEST
FUTURE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT.

NOTABLE ON THE SOUNDINGS ARE AMPLE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS ALOFT AND
OBVIOUS ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS. SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ARE MODEST,
BUT APPEAR SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SPC MESOSCALE PAGE SHOWS AMPLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (>7C)
UPSTREAM, WHILE SPC VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE 2-4 RANGE FROM THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER DOWN TOWARD PIT.

WE LACK AN OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT IF WE
CAN GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF PEAK HEATING, STRONG CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY LATE IN THE
DAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STRATIFORM
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICANT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORM OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED JUST REFRESHED
WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF AREA THROUGHOUT PERIOD. EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
UNDER AN EVER PERSISTENT EASTERN TROF. TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

145 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES AT THE SFC WL BE OVR THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PD. HWVR FLOW ALOFT WL BE DOMINATED BY A L/WV TROF. THIS WL KEEP
SLGT CHCS FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AND GIVE
CREDENCE TO THE WORDS "DIRTY HIGH." HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC
GUIDANCE WITH 20 POPS EACH AFTN ALONG WITH NR NORMAL TEMPS, WITH
HIGHS ARND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUN UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. ISOLD
SHWRS/TSTMS ARE PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR/KRME...BUT
WE`VE NOT ADDED TO THE TERMINAL FCSTS ATTM DUE TO THEIR
ANTICIPATED SPARSE COVERAGE.

SHWRS/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
EVE/OVERNIGHT. THUS...WE`VE GONE WITH AREA-WIDE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDS MOST READILY SEEN
ON THE HILLTOPS AT KBGM AND KITH. TSTMS SEEM MOST LIKELY AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVE...SO WE`VE INSERTED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA ONLY AT KELM AND KAVP FOR THE TIME BEING.

MON MRNG...CONDS SHOULD BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE...THEREFORE
RESTRICTIONS (MAINLY MVFR) ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST.

W TO SW SFC WINDS ARND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL
BECOME LGT AND VRBL TNT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE N AND NW
MON...AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 271723
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
123 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE EAST COAST, BRINGING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO THE AREA, ALONG
WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE INDUCED CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL EASTWARD, LEAVING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN FA. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS IN RECOVERY MODE AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE EXIST INTERESTING
SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (12Z AT BUF, PIT, DTX) WHICH SUGGEST
FUTURE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT.

NOTABLE ON THE SOUNDINGS ARE AMPLE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS ALOFT AND
OBVIOUS ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS. SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ARE MODEST,
BUT APPEAR SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SPC MESOSCALE PAGE SHOWS AMPLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (>7C)
UPSTREAM, WHILE SPC VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE 2-4 RANGE FROM THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER DOWN TOWARD PIT.

WE LACK AN OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT IF WE
CAN GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF PEAK HEATING, STRONG CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY LATE IN THE
DAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADARS SHOW SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS JUST CLIPPING FAR
NORTHEAST ONEIDA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THESE SHOWERS WERE EXITING
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES
TO TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND
LAKE HURON. THIS FEATURE WAS CAPTURED WELL IN THE TROPOPAUSE
PRESSURE FIELDS FOR THE 1.5 PV UNIT ON THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THIS
FEATURE IS PROJECTED TO TRACK INTO CENTRAL NY BY 12Z. RADAR SHOWS
A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ONTARIO WITH MUCH LESS
SOUTHWARD. THE HI RES MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE
SIMULATING THE PRESENT RADAR COVERAGE THUS FEEL THEY LIKELY ARE A
BIT SUSPECT. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE SO FAR AND LIKE THE
OTHER HI RESOLUTION MODELS BRINGS A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS CENTRAL NY BTWN 9 AND 12Z. SO AS THIS WAVE
PASSES BY LATER THIS MORNING, I WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN NC NY AND
TAPER THEM DOWN TO CHC IN NE PA.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES AFTER 12Z...CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA GETS
INTO A LULL WITH MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MODELS ALL SHOW A NICE
LOW-LEVEL JET FEATURE TRANSPORTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACRS C NY
MENTIONED ABV. HENCE DWPTS ABV THE SURFACE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MIX
DOWN MID TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS WITH INSOLATION LATER IN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALES LIKELY WILL HAVE SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
EVENTUALLY BY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE ENUF SUNSHINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. I EXPECT CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG
MIXED LAYER. THE WIND SHEAR INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WINDS AND POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
REAL TRIGGER TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL WE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORM AND
KEPT POPS IN OUR GRIDS BUT BELIEVE BULK OF ACVTY WILL COME SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND NEXT MAJOR WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STRATIFORM
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICANT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORM OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED JUST REFRESHED
WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF AREA THROUGHOUT PERIOD. EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
UNDER AN EVER PERSISTENT EASTERN TROF. TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

145 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES AT THE SFC WL BE OVR THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PD. HWVR FLOW ALOFT WL BE DOMINATED BY A L/WV TROF. THIS WL KEEP
SLGT CHCS FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AND GIVE
CREDENCE TO THE WORDS "DIRTY HIGH." HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC
GUIDANCE WITH 20 POPS EACH AFTN ALONG WITH NR NORMAL TEMPS, WITH
HIGHS ARND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SUN UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. ISOLD
SHWRS/TSTMS ARE PSBL...SPCLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSYR/KRME...BUT
WE`VE NOT ADDED TO THE TERMINAL FCSTS ATTM DUE TO THEIR
ANTICIPATED SPARSE COVERAGE.

SHWRS/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
EVE/OVERNIGHT. THUS...WE`VE GONE WITH AREA-WIDE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDS MOST READILY SEEN
ON THE HILLTOPS AT KBGM AND KITH. TSTMS SEEM MOST LIKELY AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVE...SO WE`VE INSERTED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA ONLY AT KELM AND KAVP FOR THE TIME BEING.

MON MRNG...CONDS SHOULD BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE...THEREFORE
RESTRICTIONS (MAINLY MVFR) ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST.

W TO SW SFC WINDS ARND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL
BECOME LGT AND VRBL TNT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE N AND NW
MON...AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBGM 271451
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1051 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE EAST COAST, BRINGING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO THE AREA, ALONG
WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE INDUCED CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL EASTWARD, LEAVING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN FA. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS IN RECOVERY MODE AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE EXIST INTERESTING
SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (12Z AT BUF, PIT, DTX) WHICH SUGGEST
FUTURE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT.

NOTABLE ON THE SOUNDINGS ARE AMPLE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS ALOFT AND
OBVIOUS ELVATED MIXED LAYERS. SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ARE MODEST,
BUT APPEAR SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SPC MESOSCALE PAGE SHOWS AMPLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (>7C)
UPSTREAM, WHILE SCP VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE 2-4 RANGE FROM THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER DOWN TOWARD PIT.

WE LACK AN OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT IF WE
CAN GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF PEAK HEATING, STRONG CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY LATE IN THE
DAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSLEY.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADARS SHOW SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS JUST CLIPPING FAR
NORTHEAST ONEIDA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THESE SHOWERS WERE EXITING
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES
TO TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND
LAKE HURON. THIS FEATURE WAS CAPTURED WELL IN THE TROPOPAUSE
PRESSURE FIELDS FOR THE 1.5 PV UNIT ON THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THIS
FEATURE IS PROJECTED TO TRACK INTO CENTRAL NY BY 12Z. RADAR SHOWS
A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ONTARIO WITH MUCH LESS
SOUTHWARD. THE HI RES MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE
SIMULATING THE PRESENT RADAR COVERAGE THUS FEEL THEY LIKELY ARE A
BIT SUSPECT. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE SO FAR AND LIKE THE
OTHER HI RESOLUTION MODELS BRINGS A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS CENTRAL NY BTWN 9 AND 12Z. SO AS THIS WAVE
PASSES BY LATER THIS MORNING, I WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN NC NY AND
TAPER THEM DOWN TO CHC IN NE PA.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES AFTER 12Z...CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA GETS
INTO A LULL WITH MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MODELS ALL SHOW A NICE
LOW-LEVEL JET FEATURE TRANSPORTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACRS C NY
MENTIONED ABV. HENCE DWPTS ABV THE SURFACE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MIX
DOWN MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WITH INSOLATION LATER IN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALES LIKELY WILL HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
EVENTUALLY BY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE ENUF SUNSHINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. I EXPECT CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG
MIXED LAYER. THE WIND SHEAR INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WINDS AND POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
REAL TRIGGER TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL WE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORM AND
KEPT POPS IN OUR GRIDS BUT BELIEVE BULK OF ACVTY WILL COME SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND NEXT MAJOR WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOUROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STATIFORMS
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICENT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORMS OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERVISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED JUST REFRESHED
WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF AREA THROUGHOUT PERIOD. EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
UNDER AN EVER PERSISTENT EASTERN TROF. TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

145 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES AT THE SFC WL BE OVR THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PD. HWVR FLOW ALOFT WL BE DOMINATED BY A L/WV TROF. THIS WL KEEP
SLGT CHCS FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AND GIVE
CREDENCE TO THE WORDS "DIRTY HIGH." HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC
GUIDANCE WITH 20 POPS EACH AFTN ALONG WITH NR NORMAL TEMPS, WITH
HIGHS ARND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH AREA AT 11Z WILL BE EAST OF
TERMINALS BY 12Z BUT LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING. LATER THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST
SCT/BKN FAIR WX CU AND BKN CI EXPECTED. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT INCLUDED DUE TO VERY LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE. THIS EVENING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEGAN THIS ACTIVITY AROUND 00Z AND
AT 06Z AT KSYR/KRME.

S/SW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 5-8 KNOTS EXCEPT SE AT KRME.
AFTER MID MORNING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON IN SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 271451
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1051 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE EAST COAST, BRINGING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO THE AREA, ALONG
WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE INDUCED CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL EASTWARD, LEAVING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN FA. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS IN RECOVERY MODE AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE EXIST INTERESTING
SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (12Z AT BUF, PIT, DTX) WHICH SUGGEST
FUTURE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT.

NOTABLE ON THE SOUNDINGS ARE AMPLE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS ALOFT AND
OBVIOUS ELVATED MIXED LAYERS. SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ARE MODEST,
BUT APPEAR SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SPC MESOSCALE PAGE SHOWS AMPLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (>7C)
UPSTREAM, WHILE SCP VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE 2-4 RANGE FROM THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER DOWN TOWARD PIT.

WE LACK AN OBVIOUS TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT IF WE
CAN GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF PEAK HEATING, STRONG CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY LATE IN THE
DAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSLEY.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADARS SHOW SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS JUST CLIPPING FAR
NORTHEAST ONEIDA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THESE SHOWERS WERE EXITING
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES
TO TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND
LAKE HURON. THIS FEATURE WAS CAPTURED WELL IN THE TROPOPAUSE
PRESSURE FIELDS FOR THE 1.5 PV UNIT ON THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THIS
FEATURE IS PROJECTED TO TRACK INTO CENTRAL NY BY 12Z. RADAR SHOWS
A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ONTARIO WITH MUCH LESS
SOUTHWARD. THE HI RES MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE
SIMULATING THE PRESENT RADAR COVERAGE THUS FEEL THEY LIKELY ARE A
BIT SUSPECT. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE SO FAR AND LIKE THE
OTHER HI RESOLUTION MODELS BRINGS A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS CENTRAL NY BTWN 9 AND 12Z. SO AS THIS WAVE
PASSES BY LATER THIS MORNING, I WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN NC NY AND
TAPER THEM DOWN TO CHC IN NE PA.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES AFTER 12Z...CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA GETS
INTO A LULL WITH MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MODELS ALL SHOW A NICE
LOW-LEVEL JET FEATURE TRANSPORTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACRS C NY
MENTIONED ABV. HENCE DWPTS ABV THE SURFACE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MIX
DOWN MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WITH INSOLATION LATER IN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALES LIKELY WILL HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
EVENTUALLY BY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE ENUF SUNSHINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. I EXPECT CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG
MIXED LAYER. THE WIND SHEAR INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WINDS AND POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
REAL TRIGGER TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL WE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORM AND
KEPT POPS IN OUR GRIDS BUT BELIEVE BULK OF ACVTY WILL COME SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND NEXT MAJOR WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOUROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STATIFORMS
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICENT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORMS OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERVISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED JUST REFRESHED
WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF AREA THROUGHOUT PERIOD. EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
UNDER AN EVER PERSISTENT EASTERN TROF. TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

145 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES AT THE SFC WL BE OVR THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PD. HWVR FLOW ALOFT WL BE DOMINATED BY A L/WV TROF. THIS WL KEEP
SLGT CHCS FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AND GIVE
CREDENCE TO THE WORDS "DIRTY HIGH." HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC
GUIDANCE WITH 20 POPS EACH AFTN ALONG WITH NR NORMAL TEMPS, WITH
HIGHS ARND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH AREA AT 11Z WILL BE EAST OF
TERMINALS BY 12Z BUT LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING. LATER THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST
SCT/BKN FAIR WX CU AND BKN CI EXPECTED. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT INCLUDED DUE TO VERY LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE. THIS EVENING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEGAN THIS ACTIVITY AROUND 00Z AND
AT 06Z AT KSYR/KRME.

S/SW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 5-8 KNOTS EXCEPT SE AT KRME.
AFTER MID MORNING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON IN SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 271052
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE EAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THESE
SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADARS SHOW SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS JUST CLIPPING FAR NORTHEAST
ONEIDA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THESE SHOWERS WERE EXITING NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON. THIS
FEATURE WAS CAPTURED WELL IN THE TROPOPAUSE PRESSURE FIELDS FOR THE
1.5 PV UNIT ON THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THIS FEATURE IS PROJECTED TO
TRACK INTO CENTRAL NY BY 12Z. RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ONTARIO WITH MUCH LESS SOUTHWARD. THE HI RES
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE SIMULATING THE PRESENT RADAR
COVERAGE THUS FEEL THEY LIKELY ARE A BIT SUSPECT. THE HRRR HAS THE
BEST HANDLE SO FAR AND LIKE THE OTHER HI RESOLUTION MODELS BRINGS A
SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS CENTRAL NY BTWN 9 AND 12Z.
SO AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY LATER THIS MORNING, I WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS IN NC NY AND TAPER THEM DOWN TO CHC IN NE PA.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES AFTER 12Z...CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA GETS
INTO A LULL WITH MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MODELS ALL SHOW A NICE
LOW-LEVEL JET FEATURE TRANSPORTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACRS C NY
MENTIONED ABV. HENCE DWPTS ABV THE SURFACE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MIX
DOWN MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WITH INSOLATION LATER IN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALES LIKELY WILL HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
EVENTUALLY BY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE ENUF SUNSHINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. I EXPECT CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG
MIXED LAYER. THE WIND SHEAR INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WINDS AND POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
REAL TRIGGER TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL WE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORM AND
KEPT POPS IN OUR GRIDS BUT BELIEVE BULK OF ACVTY WILL COME SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND NEXT MAJOR WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOUROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STATIFORMS
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICENT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORMS OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERVISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED JUST REFRESHED
WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF AREA THROUGHOUT PERIOD. EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
UNDER AN EVER PERSISTENT EASTERN TROF. TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

145 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES AT THE SFC WL BE OVR THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PD. HWVR FLOW ALOFT WL BE DOMINATED BY A L/WV TROF. THIS WL KEEP
SLGT CHCS FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AND GIVE
CREDENCE TO THE WORDS "DIRTY HIGH." HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC
GUIDANCE WITH 20 POPS EACH AFTN ALONG WITH NR NORMAL TEMPS, WITH
HIGHS ARND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH AREA AT 11Z WILL BE EAST OF
TERMINALS BY 12Z BUT LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING. LATER THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST
SCT/BKN FAIR WX CU AND BKN CI EXPECTED. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT INCLUDED DUE TO VERY LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE. THIS EVENING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEGAN THIS ACTIVITY AROUND 00Z AND
AT 06Z AT KSYR/KRME.

S/SW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 5-8 KNOTS EXCEPT SE AT KRME.
AFTER MID MORNING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON IN SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 271052
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE EAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THESE
SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADARS SHOW SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS JUST CLIPPING FAR NORTHEAST
ONEIDA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THESE SHOWERS WERE EXITING NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON. THIS
FEATURE WAS CAPTURED WELL IN THE TROPOPAUSE PRESSURE FIELDS FOR THE
1.5 PV UNIT ON THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THIS FEATURE IS PROJECTED TO
TRACK INTO CENTRAL NY BY 12Z. RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ONTARIO WITH MUCH LESS SOUTHWARD. THE HI RES
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE SIMULATING THE PRESENT RADAR
COVERAGE THUS FEEL THEY LIKELY ARE A BIT SUSPECT. THE HRRR HAS THE
BEST HANDLE SO FAR AND LIKE THE OTHER HI RESOLUTION MODELS BRINGS A
SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS CENTRAL NY BTWN 9 AND 12Z.
SO AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY LATER THIS MORNING, I WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS IN NC NY AND TAPER THEM DOWN TO CHC IN NE PA.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES AFTER 12Z...CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA GETS
INTO A LULL WITH MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MODELS ALL SHOW A NICE
LOW-LEVEL JET FEATURE TRANSPORTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACRS C NY
MENTIONED ABV. HENCE DWPTS ABV THE SURFACE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MIX
DOWN MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WITH INSOLATION LATER IN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALES LIKELY WILL HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
EVENTUALLY BY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE ENUF SUNSHINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. I EXPECT CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG
MIXED LAYER. THE WIND SHEAR INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WINDS AND POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
REAL TRIGGER TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL WE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORM AND
KEPT POPS IN OUR GRIDS BUT BELIEVE BULK OF ACVTY WILL COME SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND NEXT MAJOR WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOUROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STATIFORMS
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICENT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORMS OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERVISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED JUST REFRESHED
WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF AREA THROUGHOUT PERIOD. EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
UNDER AN EVER PERSISTENT EASTERN TROF. TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

145 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES AT THE SFC WL BE OVR THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PD. HWVR FLOW ALOFT WL BE DOMINATED BY A L/WV TROF. THIS WL KEEP
SLGT CHCS FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AND GIVE
CREDENCE TO THE WORDS "DIRTY HIGH." HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC
GUIDANCE WITH 20 POPS EACH AFTN ALONG WITH NR NORMAL TEMPS, WITH
HIGHS ARND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH AREA AT 11Z WILL BE EAST OF
TERMINALS BY 12Z BUT LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING. LATER THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST
SCT/BKN FAIR WX CU AND BKN CI EXPECTED. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT INCLUDED DUE TO VERY LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE. THIS EVENING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEGAN THIS ACTIVITY AROUND 00Z AND
AT 06Z AT KSYR/KRME.

S/SW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 5-8 KNOTS EXCEPT SE AT KRME.
AFTER MID MORNING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON IN SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 270837
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
437 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE EAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THESE
SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADARS SHOW SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS JUST CLIPPING FAR NORTHEAST
ONEIDA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THESE SHOWERS WERE EXITING NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON. THIS
FEATURE WAS CAPTURED WELL IN THE TROPOPAUSE PRESSURE FIELDS FOR THE
1.5 PV UNIT ON THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THIS FEATURE IS PROJECTED TO
TRACK INTO CENTRAL NY BY 12Z. RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ONTARIO WITH MUCH LESS SOUTHWARD. THE HI RES
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE SIMULATING THE PRESENT RADAR
COVERAGE THUS FEEL THEY LIKELY ARE A BIT SUSPECT. THE HRRR HAS THE
BEST HANDLE SO FAR AND LIKE THE OTHER HI RESOLUTION MODELS BRINGS A
SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS CENTRAL NY BTWN 9 AND 12Z.
SO AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY LATER THIS MORNING, I WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS IN NC NY AND TAPER THEM DOWN TO CHC IN NE PA.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES AFTER 12Z...CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA GETS
INTO A LULL WITH MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MODELS ALL SHOW A NICE
LOW-LEVEL JET FEATURE TRANSPORTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACRS C NY
MENTIONED ABV. HENCE DWPTS ABV THE SURFACE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MIX
DOWN MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WITH INSOLATION LATER IN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALES LIKELY WILL HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
EVENTUALLY BY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE ENUF SUNSHINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. I EXPECT CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG
MIXED LAYER. THE WIND SHEAR INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WINDS AND POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
REAL TRIGGER TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL WE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORM AND
KEPT POPS IN OUR GRIDS BUT BELIEVE BULK OF ACVTY WILL COME SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND NEXT MAJOR WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOUROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STATIFORMS
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICENT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORMS OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERVISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED JUST REFRESHED
WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF AREA THROUGHOUT PERIOD. EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
UNDER AN EVER PERSISTENT EASTERN TROF. TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

145 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES AT THE SFC WL BE OVR THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PD. HWVR FLOW ALOFT WL BE DOMINATED BY A L/WV TROF. THIS WL KEEP
SLGT CHCS FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AND GIVE
CREDENCE TO THE WORDS "DIRTY HIGH." HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC
GUIDANCE WITH 20 POPS EACH AFTN ALONG WITH NR NORMAL TEMPS, WITH
HIGHS ARND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MAY
PRODUCE MVFR SHOWERS AT KRME/KSYR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK UNDER INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. BY
MID MORNING ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LIFT WITH SCT/BKN CONDITIONS
AROUND 4-5K FT. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT INCLUDED DUE TO VERY LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE. THIS EVENING A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
BEGAN THIS ACTIVITY AROUND 00Z AND LEFT OUT OF KSYR/KRME AS IT
WILL BEGIN TOWARD END OFF TAF PERIOD.

S/SW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 5-8 KNOTS EXCEPT SE AT KRME.
AFTER MID MORNING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

MON-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON IN SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 270837
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
437 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE EAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THESE
SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADARS SHOW SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS JUST CLIPPING FAR NORTHEAST
ONEIDA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THESE SHOWERS WERE EXITING NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON. THIS
FEATURE WAS CAPTURED WELL IN THE TROPOPAUSE PRESSURE FIELDS FOR THE
1.5 PV UNIT ON THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THIS FEATURE IS PROJECTED TO
TRACK INTO CENTRAL NY BY 12Z. RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ONTARIO WITH MUCH LESS SOUTHWARD. THE HI RES
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE SIMULATING THE PRESENT RADAR
COVERAGE THUS FEEL THEY LIKELY ARE A BIT SUSPECT. THE HRRR HAS THE
BEST HANDLE SO FAR AND LIKE THE OTHER HI RESOLUTION MODELS BRINGS A
SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS CENTRAL NY BTWN 9 AND 12Z.
SO AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY LATER THIS MORNING, I WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS IN NC NY AND TAPER THEM DOWN TO CHC IN NE PA.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES AFTER 12Z...CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA GETS
INTO A LULL WITH MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MODELS ALL SHOW A NICE
LOW-LEVEL JET FEATURE TRANSPORTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACRS C NY
MENTIONED ABV. HENCE DWPTS ABV THE SURFACE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MIX
DOWN MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WITH INSOLATION LATER IN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALES LIKELY WILL HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
EVENTUALLY BY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE ENUF SUNSHINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. I EXPECT CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG
MIXED LAYER. THE WIND SHEAR INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WINDS AND POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
REAL TRIGGER TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL WE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORM AND
KEPT POPS IN OUR GRIDS BUT BELIEVE BULK OF ACVTY WILL COME SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND NEXT MAJOR WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOUROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STATIFORMS
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICENT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORMS OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERVISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED JUST REFRESHED
WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST
WEST OF AREA THROUGHOUT PERIOD. EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
UNDER AN EVER PERSISTENT EASTERN TROF. TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

145 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES AT THE SFC WL BE OVR THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PD. HWVR FLOW ALOFT WL BE DOMINATED BY A L/WV TROF. THIS WL KEEP
SLGT CHCS FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AND GIVE
CREDENCE TO THE WORDS "DIRTY HIGH." HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC
GUIDANCE WITH 20 POPS EACH AFTN ALONG WITH NR NORMAL TEMPS, WITH
HIGHS ARND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MAY
PRODUCE MVFR SHOWERS AT KRME/KSYR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK UNDER INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. BY
MID MORNING ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LIFT WITH SCT/BKN CONDITIONS
AROUND 4-5K FT. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT INCLUDED DUE TO VERY LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE. THIS EVENING A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
BEGAN THIS ACTIVITY AROUND 00Z AND LEFT OUT OF KSYR/KRME AS IT
WILL BEGIN TOWARD END OFF TAF PERIOD.

S/SW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 5-8 KNOTS EXCEPT SE AT KRME.
AFTER MID MORNING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

MON-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON IN SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 270723
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
323 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE EAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THESE
SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADARS SHOW SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS JUST CLIPPING FAR NORTHEAST
ONEIDA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THESE SHOWERS WERE EXITING NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON. THIS
FEATURE WAS CAPTURED WELL IN THE TROPOPAUSE PRESSURE FIELDS FOR THE
1.5 PV UNIT ON THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THIS FEATURE IS PROJECTED TO
TRACK INTO CENTRAL NY BY 12Z. RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ONTARIO WITH MUCH LESS SOUTHWARD. THE HI RES
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE SIMULATING THE PRESENT RADAR
COVERAGE THUS FEEL THEY LIKELY ARE A BIT SUSPECT. THE HRRR HAS THE
BEST HANDLE SO FAR AND LIKE THE OTHER HI RESOLUTION MODELS BRINGS A
SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS CENTRAL NY BTWN 9 AND 12Z.
SO AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY LATER THIS MORNING, I WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS IN NC NY AND TAPER THEM DOWN TO CHC IN NE PA.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES AFTER 12Z...CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA GETS
INTO A LULL WITH MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MODELS ALL SHOW A NICE
LOW-LEVEL JET FEATURE TRANSPORTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACRS C NY
MENTIONED ABV. HENCE DWPTS ABV THE SURFACE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MIX
DOWN MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WITH INSOLATION LATER IN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALES LIKELY WILL HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
EVENTUALLY BY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE ENUF SUNSHINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. I EXPECT CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG
MIXED LAYER. THE WIND SHEAR INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WINDS AND POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
REAL TRIGGER TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL WE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORM AND
KEPT POPS IN OUR GRIDS BUT BELIEVE BULK OF ACVTY WILL COME SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND NEXT MAJOR WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOUROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STATIFORMS
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICENT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORMS OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERVISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES AT THE SFC WL BE OVR THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PD. HWVR FLOW ALOFT WL BE DOMINATED BY A L/WV TROF. THIS WL KEEP
SLGT CHCS FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AND GIVE
CREDENCE TO THE WORDS "DIRTY HIGH." HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC
GUIDANCE WITH 20 POPS EACH AFTN ALONG WITH NR NORMAL TEMPS, WITH
HIGHS ARND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MAY
PRODUCE MVFR SHOWERS AT KRME/KSYR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK UNDER INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. BY
MID MORNING ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LIFT WITH SCT/BKN CONDITIONS
AROUND 4-5K FT. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT INCLUDED DUE TO VERY LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE. THIS EVENING A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
BEGAN THIS ACTIVITY AROUND 00Z AND LEFT OUT OF KSYR/KRME AS IT
WILL BEGIN TOWARD END OFF TAF PERIOD.

S/SW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 5-8 KNOTS EXCEPT SE AT KRME.
AFTER MID MORNING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

MON-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON IN SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 270723
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
323 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE EAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO
THE AREA ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THESE
SYSTEMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADARS SHOW SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS JUST CLIPPING FAR NORTHEAST
ONEIDA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. THESE SHOWERS WERE EXITING NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON. THIS
FEATURE WAS CAPTURED WELL IN THE TROPOPAUSE PRESSURE FIELDS FOR THE
1.5 PV UNIT ON THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THIS FEATURE IS PROJECTED TO
TRACK INTO CENTRAL NY BY 12Z. RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ONTARIO WITH MUCH LESS SOUTHWARD. THE HI RES
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE SIMULATING THE PRESENT RADAR
COVERAGE THUS FEEL THEY LIKELY ARE A BIT SUSPECT. THE HRRR HAS THE
BEST HANDLE SO FAR AND LIKE THE OTHER HI RESOLUTION MODELS BRINGS A
SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS CENTRAL NY BTWN 9 AND 12Z.
SO AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY LATER THIS MORNING, I WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS IN NC NY AND TAPER THEM DOWN TO CHC IN NE PA.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES AFTER 12Z...CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA GETS
INTO A LULL WITH MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MODELS ALL SHOW A NICE
LOW-LEVEL JET FEATURE TRANSPORTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE WAVE THAT WILL PASS ACRS C NY
MENTIONED ABV. HENCE DWPTS ABV THE SURFACE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MIX
DOWN MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WITH INSOLATION LATER IN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALES LIKELY WILL HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
EVENTUALLY BY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE ENUF SUNSHINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. I EXPECT CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG
MIXED LAYER. THE WIND SHEAR INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WINDS AND POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO
REAL TRIGGER TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL WE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORM AND
KEPT POPS IN OUR GRIDS BUT BELIEVE BULK OF ACVTY WILL COME SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND NEXT MAJOR WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY VIGOUROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINN AT THIS TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND REACH
OHIO BY 03Z MONDAY AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FIRE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL
WORK ON SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER THE LWR OHIO VALLEY TO CNTRL
APPLCNS THIS AFTERNOON AND HENCE SPC/S MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DOWN THERE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK E
INTO PA BTWN 3 AND 6Z...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL,
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG IN NE PA AND SC NY...I THINK THERE WILL BE A
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHEAST FROM C PA
INTO NE PA AND EVENTUALLY SC NY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND STATIFORMS
OUT IN C NY BY 6Z. STILL CONCUR WITH SPC SLGHT RISK...ESPECIALLY
FROM SC NY TO NE PA IN THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. FARTHER N...BY
THE TIME THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE REACHES NC NY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESS AND THE SHEAR WON/T BE AS STRONG. BUT IN ANY EVENT
WILL CONT TO MENTION CHC FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS IN HWO MAINLY SUN
EVENING AND NOT TAKE NC NY OUT JUST YET.

THEN BETWEEN 6Z-12Z MON THINGS GET INTERESTING. DUE TO THE DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND CONVECTION...ALL SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP FROM NW PA TO NJ. BY 12Z THE
4 MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS...EURO...CMC...NAM AND GFS ALL DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THE SFC LO. THE EURO IS SLOWEST IN BRINGING IT TO SE
NY BY 18Z MON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST HAVING THE SFC LO OVER
NH AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER TWO MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.

IN ANY EVENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PUT
A DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SIGNIFICENT FGEN FORCING ON THE NW SIDE OF
IT...WHICH AS PER NAM...GFS...AND CMC HAS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA BTWN 6Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE EURO
IS FARTHER W WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS THAT THERE IS A SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING ON THE
NW SIDE OF THE LOW WITH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS COULD
MEAN THAT AS THE BAND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WORKS
NORTHEAST ACR NE PA AND SC NY...SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS IT STRATIFORMS OUT. THE NAM HAS THE
HIGHEST QPF WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACRS C NY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
TAMER BUT STILL HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD MEAN LOCALLY
THAT RAINFALL WHICH COULD EXCEED THREE OR EVEN FOUR INCHES LOCALLY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SUN
NGT AS WELL. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY...THE SFC LO PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND THE
RAINFALL STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY. THE EURO IS
SLOWEST BRINGING THE PRECIP OUT WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE FASTEST.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING SHRA MOST OF THE DAY AS PER SURROUNDING
OFFICES GRIDS. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP ENDS A BIT QUICKER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERVISED MON PM THOUGH.

FOR MON NGT...ONLY THE EURO HAS LINGERING PRECIP FOR THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF MODELS ARE BASICALLY DRY. FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH EURO/S AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IDEA OF SLGHT CHC
TO CHC SHRA MON EVE...THEN END PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO ERLY
TUESDAY.

FOR TUE... HAVE POP UP SHRA GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. TUE NGT
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER. A FEW LINGERING SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION CLOSER TO THE NEXT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES AT THE SFC WL BE OVR THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PD. HWVR FLOW ALOFT WL BE DOMINATED BY A L/WV TROF. THIS WL KEEP
SLGT CHCS FOR AFTN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AND GIVE
CREDENCE TO THE WORDS "DIRTY HIGH." HV BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC
GUIDANCE WITH 20 POPS EACH AFTN ALONG WITH NR NORMAL TEMPS, WITH
HIGHS ARND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MAY
PRODUCE MVFR SHOWERS AT KRME/KSYR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK UNDER INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. BY
MID MORNING ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LIFT WITH SCT/BKN CONDITIONS
AROUND 4-5K FT. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT INCLUDED DUE TO VERY LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE. THIS EVENING A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
BEGAN THIS ACTIVITY AROUND 00Z AND LEFT OUT OF KSYR/KRME AS IT
WILL BEGIN TOWARD END OFF TAF PERIOD.

S/SW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 5-8 KNOTS EXCEPT SE AT KRME.
AFTER MID MORNING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

MON-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON IN SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...RRM








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