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000
FXUS61 KBGM 010039
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
839 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY, AND THEN A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
830 PM UPDATE...H5 LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN PA ATTM WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW EVIDENT ON VWP AND CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING WEST.
CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF BETTER
INSTABILITY, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FAR WEST AND CHC ELSEWHERE THEN
LOWERING POPS TO CHC/SLIGHT CHC AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF FA DUE TO EVENING RAINFALL
AND WEAK MIXING. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD.

300 PM UPDATE...
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
STILL SLOWLY ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN PA AND NY. MEANWHILE SURFACE
HEATING WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY (MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG) AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALREADY. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN GARDEN
VARIETY STORMS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF UNDER 15 KTS. WHILE
ARIEL COVERAGE WILL NOT BE GREAT (POPS LESS THAN 40%), SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CONFINED TO NORTHERN PA, WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT JUST A TAD "COOLER" THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED. WITH OUR LOW SUN ANGLE AND GOOD RADITIONAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED, RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNING. ONE MINOR CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
SLOW DOWN THE RAIN FOR FRIDAY, AND PUSH RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
VERY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 TROF DIGGING IN TO START OFF THE EXTNDD WITH WIDESPREAD LGT-
MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED AS ADDNL WV MVS UP LATE FRI NIGHT.
FROPA OCCURS ON SATURDAY WITH JUST CHC POPS THRU THE LONG TERM AS
UL TROF RMNS THRU THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE BUT HV KNOCKED CATEGORICAL POPS DOWN TO LKLY FRI NGT AS
IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GO NR 100 AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...SHRA/TSRA ASSCD WITH UPR LOW (MOST WDSPRD OVER THE
CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES) BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND XPCT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE. TDA`S RAINFALL...AND MOIST ERLY FLOW
TNGT...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR OVRNGT...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY GOING BLO ALT MINS AT BGM/ITH/ELM DUE TO
CIGS/FOG. ELSEWHERE...XPCT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP LATE THIS EVNG
PERSISTING INTO WED MRNG. ON WED...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN THE
MRNG XPCTD TO GIVE WAY TO A SCT-BKN CU DECK BY MID/LATE MRNG.
THERE COULD BE A FEW -SHRA WED NEAR AVP WED AFTN BUT WILL LEAVE
OUT OF FCST FOR NOW. WINDS L&V TNGT...WITH LGT E TO NE WINDS ON
WED.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT TO FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA WED AFTN.

FRI NGT...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA.

SAT/SUN...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/RRM
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 010039
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
839 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY, AND THEN A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
830 PM UPDATE...H5 LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN PA ATTM WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW EVIDENT ON VWP AND CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING WEST.
CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF BETTER
INSTABILITY, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FAR WEST AND CHC ELSEWHERE THEN
LOWERING POPS TO CHC/SLIGHT CHC AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF FA DUE TO EVENING RAINFALL
AND WEAK MIXING. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD.

300 PM UPDATE...
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
STILL SLOWLY ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN PA AND NY. MEANWHILE SURFACE
HEATING WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY (MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG) AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALREADY. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN GARDEN
VARIETY STORMS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF UNDER 15 KTS. WHILE
ARIEL COVERAGE WILL NOT BE GREAT (POPS LESS THAN 40%), SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CONFINED TO NORTHERN PA, WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT JUST A TAD "COOLER" THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED. WITH OUR LOW SUN ANGLE AND GOOD RADITIONAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED, RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNING. ONE MINOR CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
SLOW DOWN THE RAIN FOR FRIDAY, AND PUSH RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
VERY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 TROF DIGGING IN TO START OFF THE EXTNDD WITH WIDESPREAD LGT-
MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED AS ADDNL WV MVS UP LATE FRI NIGHT.
FROPA OCCURS ON SATURDAY WITH JUST CHC POPS THRU THE LONG TERM AS
UL TROF RMNS THRU THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE BUT HV KNOCKED CATEGORICAL POPS DOWN TO LKLY FRI NGT AS
IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GO NR 100 AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...SHRA/TSRA ASSCD WITH UPR LOW (MOST WDSPRD OVER THE
CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES) BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND XPCT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE. TDA`S RAINFALL...AND MOIST ERLY FLOW
TNGT...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR OVRNGT...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY GOING BLO ALT MINS AT BGM/ITH/ELM DUE TO
CIGS/FOG. ELSEWHERE...XPCT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP LATE THIS EVNG
PERSISTING INTO WED MRNG. ON WED...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN THE
MRNG XPCTD TO GIVE WAY TO A SCT-BKN CU DECK BY MID/LATE MRNG.
THERE COULD BE A FEW -SHRA WED NEAR AVP WED AFTN BUT WILL LEAVE
OUT OF FCST FOR NOW. WINDS L&V TNGT...WITH LGT E TO NE WINDS ON
WED.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT TO FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA WED AFTN.

FRI NGT...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA.

SAT/SUN...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/RRM
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 302351
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
751 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY, AND THEN A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
STILL SLOWLY ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN PA AND NY. MEANWHILE SURFACE
HEATING WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY (MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG) AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALREADY. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN GARDEN
VARIETY STORMS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF UNDER 15 KTS. WHILE
ARIEL COVERAGE WILL NOT BE GREAT (POPS LESS THAN 40%), SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CONFINED TO NORTHERN PA, WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT JUST A TAD "COOLER" THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED. WITH OUR LOW SUN ANGLE AND GOOD RADITIONAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED, RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNING. ONE MINOR CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
SLOW DOWN THE RAIN FOR FRIDAY, AND PUSH RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
VERY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 TROF DIGGING IN TO START OFF THE EXTNDD WITH WIDESPREAD LGT-
MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED AS ADDNL WV MVS UP LATE FRI NIGHT.
FROPA OCCURS ON SATURDAY WITH JUST CHC POPS THRU THE LONG TERM AS
UL TROF RMNS THRU THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE BUT HV KNOCKED CATEGORICAL POPS DOWN TO LKLY FRI NGT AS
IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GO NR 100 AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...SHRA/TSRA ASSCD WITH UPR LOW (MOST WDSPRD OVER THE
CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES) BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND XPCT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE. TDA`S RAINFALL...AND MOIST ERLY FLOW
TNGT...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR OVRNGT...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY GOING BLO ALT MINS AT BGM/ITH/ELM DUE TO
CIGS/FOG. ELSEWHERE...XPCT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP LATE THIS EVNG
PERSISTING INTO WED MRNG. ON WED...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN THE
MRNG XPCTD TO GIVE WAY TO A SCT-BKN CU DECK BY MID/LATE MRNG.
THERE COULD BE A FEW -SHRA WED NEAR AVP WED AFTN BUT WILL LEAVE
OUT OF FCST FOR NOW. WINDS L&V TNGT...WITH LGT E TO NE WINDS ON
WED.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT TO FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA WED AFTN.

FRI NGT...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA.

SAT/SUN...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 302351
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
751 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY, AND THEN A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
STILL SLOWLY ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN PA AND NY. MEANWHILE SURFACE
HEATING WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY (MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG) AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALREADY. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN GARDEN
VARIETY STORMS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF UNDER 15 KTS. WHILE
ARIEL COVERAGE WILL NOT BE GREAT (POPS LESS THAN 40%), SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CONFINED TO NORTHERN PA, WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT JUST A TAD "COOLER" THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED. WITH OUR LOW SUN ANGLE AND GOOD RADITIONAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED, RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNING. ONE MINOR CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
SLOW DOWN THE RAIN FOR FRIDAY, AND PUSH RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
VERY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 TROF DIGGING IN TO START OFF THE EXTNDD WITH WIDESPREAD LGT-
MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED AS ADDNL WV MVS UP LATE FRI NIGHT.
FROPA OCCURS ON SATURDAY WITH JUST CHC POPS THRU THE LONG TERM AS
UL TROF RMNS THRU THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE BUT HV KNOCKED CATEGORICAL POPS DOWN TO LKLY FRI NGT AS
IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GO NR 100 AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...SHRA/TSRA ASSCD WITH UPR LOW (MOST WDSPRD OVER THE
CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES) BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND XPCT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE. TDA`S RAINFALL...AND MOIST ERLY FLOW
TNGT...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR OVRNGT...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY GOING BLO ALT MINS AT BGM/ITH/ELM DUE TO
CIGS/FOG. ELSEWHERE...XPCT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP LATE THIS EVNG
PERSISTING INTO WED MRNG. ON WED...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN THE
MRNG XPCTD TO GIVE WAY TO A SCT-BKN CU DECK BY MID/LATE MRNG.
THERE COULD BE A FEW -SHRA WED NEAR AVP WED AFTN BUT WILL LEAVE
OUT OF FCST FOR NOW. WINDS L&V TNGT...WITH LGT E TO NE WINDS ON
WED.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT TO FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA WED AFTN.

FRI NGT...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA.

SAT/SUN...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 301909
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
309 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY, AND THEN A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
STILL SLOWLY ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN PA AND NY. MEANWHILE SURFACE
HEATING WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY (MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG) AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALREADY. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN GARDEN
VARIETY STORMS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF UNDER 15 KTS. WHILE
ARIEL COVERAGE WILL NOT BE GREAT (POPS LESS THAN 40%), SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CONFINED TO NORTHERN PA, WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT JUST A TAD "COOLER" THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED. WITH OUR LOW SUN ANGLE AND GOOD RADITIONAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED, RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNING. ONE MINOR CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
SLOW DOWN THE RAIN FOR FRIDAY, AND PUSH RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
VERY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 TROF DIGGING IN TO START OFF THE EXTNDD WITH WIDESPREAD LGT-
MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED AS ADDNL WV MVS UP LATE FRI NIGHT.
FROPA OCCURS ON SATURDAY WITH JUST CHC POPS THRU THE LONG TERM AS
UL TROF RMNS THRU THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE BUT HV KNOCKED CATEGORICAL POPS DOWN TO LKLY FRI NGT AS
IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GO NR 100 AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO WAVE
DROPPING INTO WESTERN NY. SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED
TO MAINLY BGM AND AVP AND POSSIBLY ELM BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. BIG
QUESTION CENTERS AROUND WHAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MARINE LAYER IS STILL SITTING OFF TO THE EAST AND WITH
EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS TONIGHT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IT TO
MOVE INTO TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER, IF IT DOESN`T, IFR VSBYS
WILL DEVELOP IN FOG UNDER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

HV GONE WITH PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z AT ELM WITH
IFR IN A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 08Z-12Z AT ITH AND BGM. EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z.

WINDS LGT OUT OF THE E-SE WILL BCM LGT/VRB OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA WED AFTN.

FRI NGT...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA.

SAT/SUN...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 301909
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
309 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY, AND THEN A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
STILL SLOWLY ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN PA AND NY. MEANWHILE SURFACE
HEATING WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY (MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG) AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALREADY. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN GARDEN
VARIETY STORMS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF UNDER 15 KTS. WHILE
ARIEL COVERAGE WILL NOT BE GREAT (POPS LESS THAN 40%), SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CONFINED TO NORTHERN PA, WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT JUST A TAD "COOLER" THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED. WITH OUR LOW SUN ANGLE AND GOOD RADITIONAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED, RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNING. ONE MINOR CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
SLOW DOWN THE RAIN FOR FRIDAY, AND PUSH RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
VERY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 TROF DIGGING IN TO START OFF THE EXTNDD WITH WIDESPREAD LGT-
MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED AS ADDNL WV MVS UP LATE FRI NIGHT.
FROPA OCCURS ON SATURDAY WITH JUST CHC POPS THRU THE LONG TERM AS
UL TROF RMNS THRU THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE BUT HV KNOCKED CATEGORICAL POPS DOWN TO LKLY FRI NGT AS
IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GO NR 100 AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO WAVE
DROPPING INTO WESTERN NY. SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED
TO MAINLY BGM AND AVP AND POSSIBLY ELM BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. BIG
QUESTION CENTERS AROUND WHAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MARINE LAYER IS STILL SITTING OFF TO THE EAST AND WITH
EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS TONIGHT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IT TO
MOVE INTO TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER, IF IT DOESN`T, IFR VSBYS
WILL DEVELOP IN FOG UNDER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

HV GONE WITH PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z AT ELM WITH
IFR IN A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 08Z-12Z AT ITH AND BGM. EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z.

WINDS LGT OUT OF THE E-SE WILL BCM LGT/VRB OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA WED AFTN.

FRI NGT...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA.

SAT/SUN...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 301804
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
204 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION TODAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH
DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY, AND THEN A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM UPDATE...
MORNING FOG IS STILL IN THE PROCESS OF BURNING OFF. WE SHOULD SEE
A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z, AND
FOCUSED BETWEEN 21Z AND 0Z. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

STICKING WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION
IS NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS OUT OF ONTARIO AS OF YET. SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MODEST K
INDICES (25 TO 30) FORECAST BY THE GFS. ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF FOR THUNDER MAINLY FOR SWRN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND NAM HANG ON TO INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT GUT FEELING IS THIS IS OVERDONE. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
IS THAT COOL SHOWERS WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DIFFUSE SFC FEATURE AND UPPER WAVE ARE SLOW TO MOVE ON WEDNESDAY
SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY, ESPECIALLY EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY, AND THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION.

RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 TROF DIGGING IN TO START OFF THE EXTNDD WITH WIDESPREAD LGT-
MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED AS ADDNL WV MVS UP LATE FRI NIGHT.
FROPA OCCURS ON SATURDAY WITH JUST CHC POPS THRU THE LONG TERM AS
UL TROF RMNS THRU THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE BUT HV KNOCKED CATEGORICAL POPS DOWN TO LKLY FRI NGT AS
IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GO NR 100 AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO WAVE
DROPPING INTO WESTERN NY. SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED
TO MAINLY BGM AND AVP AND POSSIBLY ELM BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. BIG
QUESTION CENTERS AROUND WHAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MARINE LAYER IS STILL SITTING OFF TO THE EAST AND WITH
EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS TONIGHT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IT TO
MOVE INTO TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER, IF IT DOESN`T, IFR VSBYS
WILL DEVELOP IN FOG UNDER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

HV GONE WITH PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z AT ELM WITH
IFR IN A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 08Z-12Z AT ITH AND BGM. EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z.

WINDS LGT OUT OF THE E-SE WILL BCM LGT/VRB OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA WED AFTN.

FRI NGT...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA.

SAT/SUN...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 301804
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
204 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION TODAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH
DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY, AND THEN A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM UPDATE...
MORNING FOG IS STILL IN THE PROCESS OF BURNING OFF. WE SHOULD SEE
A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z, AND
FOCUSED BETWEEN 21Z AND 0Z. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

STICKING WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION
IS NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS OUT OF ONTARIO AS OF YET. SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MODEST K
INDICES (25 TO 30) FORECAST BY THE GFS. ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF FOR THUNDER MAINLY FOR SWRN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND NAM HANG ON TO INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT GUT FEELING IS THIS IS OVERDONE. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
IS THAT COOL SHOWERS WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DIFFUSE SFC FEATURE AND UPPER WAVE ARE SLOW TO MOVE ON WEDNESDAY
SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY, ESPECIALLY EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY, AND THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION.

RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 TROF DIGGING IN TO START OFF THE EXTNDD WITH WIDESPREAD LGT-
MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED AS ADDNL WV MVS UP LATE FRI NIGHT.
FROPA OCCURS ON SATURDAY WITH JUST CHC POPS THRU THE LONG TERM AS
UL TROF RMNS THRU THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE BUT HV KNOCKED CATEGORICAL POPS DOWN TO LKLY FRI NGT AS
IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GO NR 100 AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO WAVE
DROPPING INTO WESTERN NY. SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED
TO MAINLY BGM AND AVP AND POSSIBLY ELM BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. BIG
QUESTION CENTERS AROUND WHAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MARINE LAYER IS STILL SITTING OFF TO THE EAST AND WITH
EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS TONIGHT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IT TO
MOVE INTO TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER, IF IT DOESN`T, IFR VSBYS
WILL DEVELOP IN FOG UNDER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

HV GONE WITH PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z AT ELM WITH
IFR IN A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 08Z-12Z AT ITH AND BGM. EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z.

WINDS LGT OUT OF THE E-SE WILL BCM LGT/VRB OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA WED AFTN.

FRI NGT...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA.

SAT/SUN...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 301432
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1032 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION TODAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH
DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY, AND THEN A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM UPDATE...
MORNING FOG IS STILL IN THE PROCESS OF BURNING OFF. WE SHOULD SEE
A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z, AND
FOCUSED BETWEEN 21Z AND 0Z. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

STICKING WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION
IS NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS OUT OF ONTARIO AS OF YET. SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MODEST K
INDICES (25 TO 30) FORECAST BY THE GFS. ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF FOR THUNDER MAINLY FOR SWRN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GFS AND NAM HANG ON TO INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT GUT FEELING IS THIS IS OVERDONE. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
IS THAT COOL SHOWERS WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DIFFUSE SFC FEATURE AND UPPER WAVE ARE SLOW TO MOVE ON WEDNESDAY
SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY, ESPECIALLY EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY, AND THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION.

RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RDG AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE FAIR
NIGHT THU NGT. ALL THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LVL TROF WILL PASS THRU NY AND PA SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST...THE EURO IS THE FASTEST AND THE
CMC ALSO HAS PRECIP AFFECTING NY AND PA FRIDAY. SO WILL HAVE CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PASSES BY FOR SATURDAY
WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME LINGERING SHRA WITH CHC TO
SLGHT CHC SHRA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY CUD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHRA IN NC NY DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FROM
LES SHRA SINCE H850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C AS PER EURO.
THE GFS IS QUICKER LIFTING THE COLDER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
OUT ON SUNDAY BUT HAS SOME WEAK WAA SHRA SO AGAIN SOME POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR SHRA NC NY.

HAVE POPULATED EXTENDED WITH HPC AND WILL COLLABORATE WITH
NEIGHBORING WFO`S FOR CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUBLISHING AND SENDING TO
NDFD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUE UPDATE... DENSE FOG AT KELM (NEAR OR JUST BLO AIRPORT MIN)
SHOULD BURN OFF BY ARND 14Z. ANY RESTRICTIONS AT OUR OTHER
TERMINAL SITES THIS MRNG SHOULD BE BRIEF...AND OF THE MVFR
VARIETY.

THEREAFTER...VFR SHOULD BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH A SCT-BKN
CU FIELD. HIT AND MISS SHWRS...AND PSBLY AN EMBEDDED TSRA...ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER CNY/NE PA LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY
THIS EVE. FOR NOW...WE`LL CONTINUE WITH A PROB30 GROUP TO COVER
THIS SITN.

LTR THIS EVE...DEPENDING ON RAINFALL COVERAGE AND THE DEGREE OF
CLEARING...AREAS OF FOG/LWR CIGS COULD WELL DVLP. AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE...WE`VE OPTED FOR IFR WHERE WE`RE MOST CONFIDENT
(KELM/KITH/KBGM)...WITH MVFR INDICATED AT KRME/KSYR/KAVP.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA WED AFTN.

FRI NGT...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA.

SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBGM 301045
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION TODAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH
DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY, AND THEN A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STICKING WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION IS NOT
MAKING MUCH PROGRESS OUT OF ONTARIO AS OF YET. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MODEST K INDICES (25
TO 30) FORECAST BY THE GFS. ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOR
THUNDER MAINLY FOR SWRN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GFS AND NAM HANG ON TO INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT GUT FEELING IS THIS IS OVERDONE. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
IS THAT COOL SHOWERS WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DIFFUSE SFC FEATURE AND UPPER WAVE ARE SLOW TO MOVE ON WEDNESDAY
SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY, ESPECIALLY EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY, AND THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION.

RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RDG AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE FAIR
NIGHT THU NGT. ALL THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LVL TROF WILL PASS THRU NY AND PA SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST...THE EURO IS THE FASTEST AND THE
CMC ALSO HAS PRECIP AFFECTING NY AND PA FRIDAY. SO WILL HAVE CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PASSES BY FOR SATURDAY
WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME LINGERING SHRA WITH CHC TO
SLGHT CHC SHRA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY CUD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHRA IN NC NY DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FROM
LES SHRA SINCE H850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C AS PER EURO.
THE GFS IS QUICKER LIFTING THE COLDER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
OUT ON SUNDAY BUT HAS SOME WEAK WAA SHRA SO AGAIN SOME POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR SHRA NC NY.

HAVE POPULATED EXTENDED WITH HPC AND WILL COLLABORATE WITH
NEIGHBORING WFO`S FOR CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUBLISHING AND SENDING TO
NDFD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUE UPDATE... DENSE FOG AT KELM (NEAR OR JUST BLO AIRPORT MIN)
SHOULD BURN OFF BY ARND 14Z. ANY RESTRICTIONS AT OUR OTHER
TERMINAL SITES THIS MRNG SHOULD BE BRIEF...AND OF THE MVFR
VARIETY.

THEREAFTER...VFR SHOULD BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH A SCT-BKN
CU FIELD. HIT AND MISS SHWRS...AND PSBLY AN EMBEDDED TSRA...ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER CNY/NE PA LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY
THIS EVE. FOR NOW...WE`LL CONTINUE WITH A PROB30 GROUP TO COVER
THIS SITN.

LTR THIS EVE...DEPENDING ON RAINFALL COVERAGE AND THE DEGREE OF
CLEARING...AREAS OF FOG/LWR CIGS COULD WELL DVLP. AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE...WE`VE OPTED FOR IFR WHERE WE`RE MOST CONFIDENT
(KELM/KITH/KBGM)...WITH MVFR INDICATED AT KRME/KSYR/KAVP.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA WED AFTN.

FRI NGT...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA.

SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 301045
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION TODAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH
DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY, AND THEN A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STICKING WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION IS NOT
MAKING MUCH PROGRESS OUT OF ONTARIO AS OF YET. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MODEST K INDICES (25
TO 30) FORECAST BY THE GFS. ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOR
THUNDER MAINLY FOR SWRN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GFS AND NAM HANG ON TO INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT GUT FEELING IS THIS IS OVERDONE. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
IS THAT COOL SHOWERS WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DIFFUSE SFC FEATURE AND UPPER WAVE ARE SLOW TO MOVE ON WEDNESDAY
SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY, ESPECIALLY EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY, AND THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION.

RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RDG AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE FAIR
NIGHT THU NGT. ALL THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LVL TROF WILL PASS THRU NY AND PA SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST...THE EURO IS THE FASTEST AND THE
CMC ALSO HAS PRECIP AFFECTING NY AND PA FRIDAY. SO WILL HAVE CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PASSES BY FOR SATURDAY
WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME LINGERING SHRA WITH CHC TO
SLGHT CHC SHRA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY CUD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHRA IN NC NY DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FROM
LES SHRA SINCE H850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C AS PER EURO.
THE GFS IS QUICKER LIFTING THE COLDER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
OUT ON SUNDAY BUT HAS SOME WEAK WAA SHRA SO AGAIN SOME POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR SHRA NC NY.

HAVE POPULATED EXTENDED WITH HPC AND WILL COLLABORATE WITH
NEIGHBORING WFO`S FOR CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUBLISHING AND SENDING TO
NDFD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUE UPDATE... DENSE FOG AT KELM (NEAR OR JUST BLO AIRPORT MIN)
SHOULD BURN OFF BY ARND 14Z. ANY RESTRICTIONS AT OUR OTHER
TERMINAL SITES THIS MRNG SHOULD BE BRIEF...AND OF THE MVFR
VARIETY.

THEREAFTER...VFR SHOULD BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH A SCT-BKN
CU FIELD. HIT AND MISS SHWRS...AND PSBLY AN EMBEDDED TSRA...ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER CNY/NE PA LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY
THIS EVE. FOR NOW...WE`LL CONTINUE WITH A PROB30 GROUP TO COVER
THIS SITN.

LTR THIS EVE...DEPENDING ON RAINFALL COVERAGE AND THE DEGREE OF
CLEARING...AREAS OF FOG/LWR CIGS COULD WELL DVLP. AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE...WE`VE OPTED FOR IFR WHERE WE`RE MOST CONFIDENT
(KELM/KITH/KBGM)...WITH MVFR INDICATED AT KRME/KSYR/KAVP.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA WED AFTN.

FRI NGT...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA.

SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBGM 300656
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
256 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION TODAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH
DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY, AND THEN A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STICKING WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION IS NOT
MAKING MUCH PROGRESS OUT OF ONTARIO AS OF YET. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MODEST K INDICES (25
TO 30) FORECAST BY THE GFS. ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOR
THUNDER MAINLY FOR SWRN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GFS AND NAM HANG ON TO INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT GUT FEELING IS THIS IS OVERDONE. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
IS THAT COOL SHOWERS WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DIFFUSE SFC FEATURE AND UPPER WAVE ARE SLOW TO MOVE ON WEDNESDAY
SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY, ESPECIALLY EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY, AND THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION.

RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RDG AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE FAIR
NIGHT THU NGT. ALL THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LVL TROF WILL PASS THRU NY AND PA SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST...THE EURO IS THE FASTEST AND THE
CMC ALSO HAS PRECIP AFFECTING NY AND PA FRIDAY. SO WILL HAVE CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PASSES BY FOR SATURDAY
WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME LINGERING SHRA WITH CHC TO
SLGHT CHC SHRA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY CUD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHRA IN NC NY DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FROM
LES SHRA SINCE H850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C AS PER EURO.
THE GFS IS QUICKER LIFTING THE COLDER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
OUT ON SUNDAY BUT HAS SOME WEAK WAA SHRA SO AGAIN SOME POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR SHRA NC NY.

HAVE POPULATED EXTENDED WITH HPC AND WILL COLLABORATE WITH
NEIGHBORING WFO`S FOR CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUBLISHING AND SENDING TO
NDFD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUE UPDATE... LOCALLY DENSE VLY FOG WILL BE IN PLACE ACRS THE
TWIN TIERS AGN EARLY THIS MRNG. THUS...WE ANTICIPATE IFR/LIFR CONDS
AT KELM...PERHAPS FALLING BLO AIRPORT MINS AT TIMES. MORE BRIEF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO PSBL TWDS DAYBREAK AT KRME AND
KITH...WITH PATCHY LWR CIGS AND BR.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...VFR SHOULD BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH A SCT-BKN CU FIELD. HIT AND MISS SHWRS...AND PSBLY AN
EMBEDDED TSRA...ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER CNY/NE PA LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVE. FOR NOW...WE`VE INSERTED A PROB30 GROUP
TO COVER THIS SITN.

LTR THIS EVE...DEPENDING ON RAINFALL COVERAGE AND THE DEGREE OF
CLEARING...AREAS OF FOG/LWR CIGS COULD DVLP. AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WE`VE GONE WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AFTER 03Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA WED AFTN.

FRI NGT...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA.

SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBGM 300605
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND MILD AGAIN, BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW FAIRLY THICK CI SHIELD
FROM THE WESTERN CATSKILLS SOUTH THROUGH THE POCONOS AND WYOMING
VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST AND CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE TO CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD SO WILL GO MAINLY CLEAR IN ALL AREAS BUT THE FAR EAST.
MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH AND FORCING NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
INITIATE SHOWERS. CHANGED POPS TO KEEP TUESDAY MORNING DRY WITH
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS BEGINNING MIDDAY.

2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BREAKING DOWN AS A SFC LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES SE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING NE ALONG THE COAST KEEPING THE SE ZONES COOLER BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR END OF SEP. IN THE WARMER AIR OF CENT NY
SOME CU HAS FORMED BUT THIS WILL DISAPPEAR NEAR SUNSET. WITH LIGHT
TO CALM LOW LEVEL WINDS VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN FORM. LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE LOW AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

SOME RAIN SHOWERS FINALLY POSSIBLE OVER THE CWA TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY. THE STORM COMING SE FROM NRN MICHIGAN WILL CLOSE OFF
ALOFT AND SLOWS AS IT MOVES THROUGH PA TUESDAY NIGHT. FORCING
COMES IN CLOSE TO MAX HEATING. AGAIN A BIG DIFFERENCE IN STABILITY
BETWEEN THE MORE STABLE GFS AND NAM. FOR NOW TOOK A BLEND AND
ADDED A LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WRN THIRD TUES AFTN AND
EVE. MODELS SHOWING MORE RAINFALL WITH THE BULK OF IT FROM THE ELM
TO AVP AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW. AFTER BEING SO DRY IT WILL HAVE
TO RAIN AT LEAST 3 INCHES FOR ANYTHING TO HAPPEN...BUT THIS IS FAR
FROM LIKELY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LATE TUE NGT TO WED UNDER THE COLD LOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT CHANCES ONLY 20 TO 30 POPS. WED NGT THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND.

THU A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CWA DRY. TEMPERATURES TUE TO THU STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RDG AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE FAIR
NIGHT THU NGT. ALL THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LVL TROF WILL PASS THRU NY AND PA SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST...THE EURO IS THE FASTEST AND THE
CMC ALSO HAS PRECIP AFFECTING NY AND PA FRIDAY. SO WILL HAVE CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PASSES BY FOR SATURDAY
WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME LINGERING SHRA WITH CHC TO
SLGHT CHC SHRA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY CUD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHRA IN NC NY DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FROM
LES SHRA SINCE H850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C AS PER EURO.
THE GFS IS QUICKER LIFTING THE COLDER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
OUT ON SUNDAY BUT HAS SOME WEAK WAA SHRA SO AGAIN SOME POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR SHRA NC NY.

HAVE POPULATED EXTENDED WITH HPC AND WILL COLLABORATE WITH
NEIGHBORING WFO`S FOR CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUBLISHING AND SENDING TO
NDFD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUE UPDATE... LOCALLY DENSE VLY FOG WILL BE IN PLACE ACRS THE
TWIN TIERS AGN EARLY THIS MRNG. THUS...WE ANTICIPATE IFR/LIFR CONDS
AT KELM...PERHAPS FALLING BLO AIRPORT MINS AT TIMES. MORE BRIEF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO PSBL TWDS DAYBREAK AT KRME AND
KITH...WITH PATCHY LWR CIGS AND BR.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...VFR SHOULD BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH A SCT-BKN CU FIELD. HIT AND MISS SHWRS...AND PSBLY AN
EMBEDDED TSRA...ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER CNY/NE PA LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVE. FOR NOW...WE`VE INSERTED A PROB30 GROUP
TO COVER THIS SITN.

LTR THIS EVE...DEPENDING ON RAINFALL COVERAGE AND THE DEGREE OF
CLEARING...AREAS OF FOG/LWR CIGS COULD DVLP. AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WE`VE GONE WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AFTER 03Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA WED AFTN.

FRI NGT...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA.

SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBGM 300605
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND MILD AGAIN, BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW FAIRLY THICK CI SHIELD
FROM THE WESTERN CATSKILLS SOUTH THROUGH THE POCONOS AND WYOMING
VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST AND CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE TO CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD SO WILL GO MAINLY CLEAR IN ALL AREAS BUT THE FAR EAST.
MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH AND FORCING NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
INITIATE SHOWERS. CHANGED POPS TO KEEP TUESDAY MORNING DRY WITH
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS BEGINNING MIDDAY.

2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BREAKING DOWN AS A SFC LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES SE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING NE ALONG THE COAST KEEPING THE SE ZONES COOLER BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR END OF SEP. IN THE WARMER AIR OF CENT NY
SOME CU HAS FORMED BUT THIS WILL DISAPPEAR NEAR SUNSET. WITH LIGHT
TO CALM LOW LEVEL WINDS VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN FORM. LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE LOW AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

SOME RAIN SHOWERS FINALLY POSSIBLE OVER THE CWA TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY. THE STORM COMING SE FROM NRN MICHIGAN WILL CLOSE OFF
ALOFT AND SLOWS AS IT MOVES THROUGH PA TUESDAY NIGHT. FORCING
COMES IN CLOSE TO MAX HEATING. AGAIN A BIG DIFFERENCE IN STABILITY
BETWEEN THE MORE STABLE GFS AND NAM. FOR NOW TOOK A BLEND AND
ADDED A LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WRN THIRD TUES AFTN AND
EVE. MODELS SHOWING MORE RAINFALL WITH THE BULK OF IT FROM THE ELM
TO AVP AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW. AFTER BEING SO DRY IT WILL HAVE
TO RAIN AT LEAST 3 INCHES FOR ANYTHING TO HAPPEN...BUT THIS IS FAR
FROM LIKELY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LATE TUE NGT TO WED UNDER THE COLD LOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT CHANCES ONLY 20 TO 30 POPS. WED NGT THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND.

THU A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CWA DRY. TEMPERATURES TUE TO THU STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RDG AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE FAIR
NIGHT THU NGT. ALL THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LVL TROF WILL PASS THRU NY AND PA SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST...THE EURO IS THE FASTEST AND THE
CMC ALSO HAS PRECIP AFFECTING NY AND PA FRIDAY. SO WILL HAVE CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PASSES BY FOR SATURDAY
WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME LINGERING SHRA WITH CHC TO
SLGHT CHC SHRA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY CUD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHRA IN NC NY DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FROM
LES SHRA SINCE H850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C AS PER EURO.
THE GFS IS QUICKER LIFTING THE COLDER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
OUT ON SUNDAY BUT HAS SOME WEAK WAA SHRA SO AGAIN SOME POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR SHRA NC NY.

HAVE POPULATED EXTENDED WITH HPC AND WILL COLLABORATE WITH
NEIGHBORING WFO`S FOR CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUBLISHING AND SENDING TO
NDFD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUE UPDATE... LOCALLY DENSE VLY FOG WILL BE IN PLACE ACRS THE
TWIN TIERS AGN EARLY THIS MRNG. THUS...WE ANTICIPATE IFR/LIFR CONDS
AT KELM...PERHAPS FALLING BLO AIRPORT MINS AT TIMES. MORE BRIEF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO PSBL TWDS DAYBREAK AT KRME AND
KITH...WITH PATCHY LWR CIGS AND BR.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...VFR SHOULD BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH A SCT-BKN CU FIELD. HIT AND MISS SHWRS...AND PSBLY AN
EMBEDDED TSRA...ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER CNY/NE PA LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVE. FOR NOW...WE`VE INSERTED A PROB30 GROUP
TO COVER THIS SITN.

LTR THIS EVE...DEPENDING ON RAINFALL COVERAGE AND THE DEGREE OF
CLEARING...AREAS OF FOG/LWR CIGS COULD DVLP. AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WE`VE GONE WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AFTER 03Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA WED AFTN.

FRI NGT...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA.

SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 300139
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
939 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND MILD AGAIN, BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW FAIRLY THICK CI SHIELD
FROM THE WESTERN CATSKILLS SOUTH THROUGH THE POCONOS AND WYOMING
VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST AND CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE TO CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD SO WILL GO MAINLY CLEAR IN ALL AREAS BUT THE FAR EAST.
MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH AND FORCING NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
INITIATE SHOWERS. CHANGED POPS TO KEEP TUESDAY MORNING DRY WITH
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS BEGINNING MIDDAY.

2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BREAKING DOWN AS A SFC LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES SE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING NE ALONG THE COAST KEEPING THE SE ZONES COOLER BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR END OF SEP. IN THE WARMER AIR OF CENT NY
SOME CU HAS FORMED BUT THIS WILL DISAPPEAR NEAR SUNSET. WITH LIGHT
TO CALM LOW LEVEL WINDS VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN FORM. LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE LOW AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

SOME RAIN SHOWERS FINALLY POSSIBLE OVER THE CWA TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY. THE STORM COMING SE FROM NRN MICHIGAN WILL CLOSE OFF
ALOFT AND SLOWS AS IT MOVES THROUGH PA TUESDAY NIGHT. FORCING
COMES IN CLOSE TO MAX HEATING. AGAIN A BIG DIFFERENCE IN STABILITY
BETWEEN THE MORE STABLE GFS AND NAM. FOR NOW TOOK A BLEND AND
ADDED A LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WRN THIRD TUES AFTN AND
EVE. MODELS SHOWING MORE RAINFALL WITH THE BULK OF IT FROM THE ELM
TO AVP AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW. AFTER BEING SO DRY IT WILL HAVE
TO RAIN AT LEAST 3 INCHES FOR ANYTHING TO HAPPEN...BUT THIS IS FAR
FROM LIKELY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LATE TUE NGT TO WED UNDER THE COLD LOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT CHANCES ONLY 20 TO 30 POPS. WED NGT THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND.

THU A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CWA DRY. TEMPERATURES TUE TO THU STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RDG AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE FAIR
NIGHT THU NGT. ALL THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LVL TROF WILL PASS THRU NY AND PA SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST...THE EURO IS THE FASTEST AND THE
CMC ALSO HAS PRECIP AFFECTING NY AND PA FRIDAY. SO WILL HAVE CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PASSES BY FOR SATURDAY
WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME LINGERING SHRA WITH CHC TO
SLGHT CHC SHRA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY CUD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHRA IN NC NY DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FROM
LES SHRA SINCE H850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C AS PER EURO.
THE GFS IS QUICKER LIFTING THE COLDER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
OUT ON SUNDAY BUT HAS SOME WEAK WAA SHRA SO AGAIN SOME POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR SHRA NC NY.

HAVE POPULATED EXTENDED WITH HPC AND WILL COLLABORATE WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS FOR CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUBLISHING AND SENDING TO
NDFD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...VFR PREVAILING EARLY THIS EVNG BUT PATCHY MVFR WILL DVLP LATER
TNGT DUE TO VLY FOG AND AREAS OF BR/HZ. MAINLY VFR ON TUE.

UPR DECK ACRS ERN ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO MOV EWD OUT OF THE FCST
AREA. MEANWHILE...BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL HELP LOWER CLDS MOV INTO THE
WRN CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS TWDS DAYBREAK WHILE ANOTHER FNT MOVS
EWD FROM THE GTLAKES INTO WRN PA/NY ON TUE AFTN. MESO MDLS KEEP LOWER
CLDS EAST OF BGM/AVP LATE TNGT...BUT COULD SEE A SCENARIO WHERE
CLDS WORK INTO RME BRIEFLY ARND DAYBREAK. GIVEN MAINLY SKC
TNGT...CONDITIONS WILL BE FVRBL FOR LIFR FOG AT ELM. OTRW...MAYBE
A FEW HRS OF MVFR VSBY`S AT OTHER LOCATIONS TWDS DAYBREAK. ON
TUE...GNRLY VFR AFTER MRNG RESTRICTIONS. SCT SHRA/TSRA LATE TMRW
AFTN ACRS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SRN TIER BUT PROBS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT ELM ATTM. WINDS LIGHT THRU THE PD...WITH L&V OR
DRAINAIGE FLOWS TNGT...GNRLY SELY 5-10 KTS ON TUE.


OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM.  ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE PM.
FRI NGT...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHRA.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 300139
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
939 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND MILD AGAIN, BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW FAIRLY THICK CI SHIELD
FROM THE WESTERN CATSKILLS SOUTH THROUGH THE POCONOS AND WYOMING
VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST AND CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE TO CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD SO WILL GO MAINLY CLEAR IN ALL AREAS BUT THE FAR EAST.
MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH AND FORCING NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
INITIATE SHOWERS. CHANGED POPS TO KEEP TUESDAY MORNING DRY WITH
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS BEGINNING MIDDAY.

2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BREAKING DOWN AS A SFC LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES SE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING NE ALONG THE COAST KEEPING THE SE ZONES COOLER BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR END OF SEP. IN THE WARMER AIR OF CENT NY
SOME CU HAS FORMED BUT THIS WILL DISAPPEAR NEAR SUNSET. WITH LIGHT
TO CALM LOW LEVEL WINDS VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN FORM. LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE LOW AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

SOME RAIN SHOWERS FINALLY POSSIBLE OVER THE CWA TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY. THE STORM COMING SE FROM NRN MICHIGAN WILL CLOSE OFF
ALOFT AND SLOWS AS IT MOVES THROUGH PA TUESDAY NIGHT. FORCING
COMES IN CLOSE TO MAX HEATING. AGAIN A BIG DIFFERENCE IN STABILITY
BETWEEN THE MORE STABLE GFS AND NAM. FOR NOW TOOK A BLEND AND
ADDED A LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WRN THIRD TUES AFTN AND
EVE. MODELS SHOWING MORE RAINFALL WITH THE BULK OF IT FROM THE ELM
TO AVP AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW. AFTER BEING SO DRY IT WILL HAVE
TO RAIN AT LEAST 3 INCHES FOR ANYTHING TO HAPPEN...BUT THIS IS FAR
FROM LIKELY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LATE TUE NGT TO WED UNDER THE COLD LOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT CHANCES ONLY 20 TO 30 POPS. WED NGT THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND.

THU A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CWA DRY. TEMPERATURES TUE TO THU STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RDG AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE FAIR
NIGHT THU NGT. ALL THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LVL TROF WILL PASS THRU NY AND PA SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST...THE EURO IS THE FASTEST AND THE
CMC ALSO HAS PRECIP AFFECTING NY AND PA FRIDAY. SO WILL HAVE CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PASSES BY FOR SATURDAY
WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME LINGERING SHRA WITH CHC TO
SLGHT CHC SHRA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY CUD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHRA IN NC NY DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FROM
LES SHRA SINCE H850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C AS PER EURO.
THE GFS IS QUICKER LIFTING THE COLDER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
OUT ON SUNDAY BUT HAS SOME WEAK WAA SHRA SO AGAIN SOME POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR SHRA NC NY.

HAVE POPULATED EXTENDED WITH HPC AND WILL COLLABORATE WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS FOR CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUBLISHING AND SENDING TO
NDFD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...VFR PREVAILING EARLY THIS EVNG BUT PATCHY MVFR WILL DVLP LATER
TNGT DUE TO VLY FOG AND AREAS OF BR/HZ. MAINLY VFR ON TUE.

UPR DECK ACRS ERN ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO MOV EWD OUT OF THE FCST
AREA. MEANWHILE...BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL HELP LOWER CLDS MOV INTO THE
WRN CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS TWDS DAYBREAK WHILE ANOTHER FNT MOVS
EWD FROM THE GTLAKES INTO WRN PA/NY ON TUE AFTN. MESO MDLS KEEP LOWER
CLDS EAST OF BGM/AVP LATE TNGT...BUT COULD SEE A SCENARIO WHERE
CLDS WORK INTO RME BRIEFLY ARND DAYBREAK. GIVEN MAINLY SKC
TNGT...CONDITIONS WILL BE FVRBL FOR LIFR FOG AT ELM. OTRW...MAYBE
A FEW HRS OF MVFR VSBY`S AT OTHER LOCATIONS TWDS DAYBREAK. ON
TUE...GNRLY VFR AFTER MRNG RESTRICTIONS. SCT SHRA/TSRA LATE TMRW
AFTN ACRS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SRN TIER BUT PROBS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT ELM ATTM. WINDS LIGHT THRU THE PD...WITH L&V OR
DRAINAIGE FLOWS TNGT...GNRLY SELY 5-10 KTS ON TUE.


OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM.  ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE PM.
FRI NGT...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHRA.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 292342
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
742 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND MILD AGAIN, BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BREAKING DOWN AS A SFC LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES SE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING NE ALONG THE COAST KEEPING THE SE ZONES COOLER BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR END OF SEP. IN THE WARMER AIR OF CENT NY
SOME CU HAS FORMED BUT THIS WILL DISAPPEAR NEAR SUNSET. WITH LIGHT
TO CALM LOW LEVEL WINDS VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN FORM. LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE LOW AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

SOME RAIN SHOWERS FINALLY POSSIBLE OVER THE CWA TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY. THE STORM COMING SE FROM NRN MICHIGAN WILL CLOSE OFF
ALOFT AND SLOWS AS IT MOVES THROUGH PA TUESDAY NIGHT. FORCING
COMES IN CLOSE TO MAX HEATING. AGAIN A BIG DIFFERENCE IN STABILITY
BETWEEN THE MORE STABLE GFS AND NAM. FOR NOW TOOK A BLEND AND
ADDED A LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WRN THIRD TUES AFTN AND
EVE. MODELS SHOWING MORE RAINFALL WITH THE BULK OF IT FROM THE ELM
TO AVP AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW. AFTER BEING SO DRY IT WILL HAVE
TO RAIN AT LEAST 3 INCHES FOR ANYTHING TO HAPPEN...BUT THIS IS FAR
FROM LIKELY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LATE TUE NGT TO WED UNDER THE COLD LOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT CHANCES ONLY 20 TO 30 POPS. WED NGT THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND.

THU A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CWA DRY. TEMPERATURES TUE TO THU STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RDG AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE FAIR
NIGHT THU NGT. ALL THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LVL TROF WILL PASS THRU NY AND PA SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST...THE EURO IS THE FASTEST AND THE
CMC ALSO HAS PRECIP AFFECTING NY AND PA FRIDAY. SO WILL HAVE CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PASSES BY FOR SATURDAY
WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME LINGERING SHRA WITH CHC TO
SLGHT CHC SHRA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY CUD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHRA IN NC NY DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FROM
LES SHRA SINCE H850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C AS PER EURO.
THE GFS IS QUICKER LIFTING THE COLDER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
OUT ON SUNDAY BUT HAS SOME WEAK WAA SHRA SO AGAIN SOME POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR SHRA NC NY.

HAVE POPULATED EXTENDED WITH HPC AND WILL COLLABORATE WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS FOR CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUBLISHING AND SENDING TO
NDFD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...VFR PREVAILING EARLY THIS EVNG BUT PATCHY MVFR WILL DVLP LATER
TNGT DUE TO VLY FOG AND AREAS OF BR/HZ. MAINLY VFR ON TUE.

UPR DECK ACRS ERN ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO MOV EWD OUT OF THE FCST
AREA. MEANWHILE...BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL HELP LOWER CLDS MOV INTO THE
WRN CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS TWDS DAYBREAK WHILE ANOTHER FNT MOVS
EWD FROM THE GTLAKES INTO WRN PA/NY ON TUE AFTN. MESO MDLS KEEP LOWER
CLDS EAST OF BGM/AVP LATE TNGT...BUT COULD SEE A SCENARIO WHERE
CLDS WORK INTO RME BRIEFLY ARND DAYBREAK. GIVEN MAINLY SKC
TNGT...CONDITIONS WILL BE FVRBL FOR LIFR FOG AT ELM. OTRW...MAYBE
A FEW HRS OF MVFR VSBY`S AT OTHER LOCATIONS TWDS DAYBREAK. ON
TUE...GNRLY VFR AFTER MRNG RESTRICTIONS. SCT SHRA/TSRA LATE TMRW
AFTN ACRS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SRN TIER BUT PROBS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT ELM ATTM. WINDS LIGHT THRU THE PD...WITH L&V OR
DRAINAIGE FLOWS TNGT...GNRLY SELY 5-10 KTS ON TUE.


OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM.  ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE PM.
FRI NGT...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHRA.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 292342
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
742 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND MILD AGAIN, BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BREAKING DOWN AS A SFC LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES SE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING NE ALONG THE COAST KEEPING THE SE ZONES COOLER BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR END OF SEP. IN THE WARMER AIR OF CENT NY
SOME CU HAS FORMED BUT THIS WILL DISAPPEAR NEAR SUNSET. WITH LIGHT
TO CALM LOW LEVEL WINDS VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN FORM. LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE LOW AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

SOME RAIN SHOWERS FINALLY POSSIBLE OVER THE CWA TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY. THE STORM COMING SE FROM NRN MICHIGAN WILL CLOSE OFF
ALOFT AND SLOWS AS IT MOVES THROUGH PA TUESDAY NIGHT. FORCING
COMES IN CLOSE TO MAX HEATING. AGAIN A BIG DIFFERENCE IN STABILITY
BETWEEN THE MORE STABLE GFS AND NAM. FOR NOW TOOK A BLEND AND
ADDED A LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WRN THIRD TUES AFTN AND
EVE. MODELS SHOWING MORE RAINFALL WITH THE BULK OF IT FROM THE ELM
TO AVP AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW. AFTER BEING SO DRY IT WILL HAVE
TO RAIN AT LEAST 3 INCHES FOR ANYTHING TO HAPPEN...BUT THIS IS FAR
FROM LIKELY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LATE TUE NGT TO WED UNDER THE COLD LOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT CHANCES ONLY 20 TO 30 POPS. WED NGT THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND.

THU A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CWA DRY. TEMPERATURES TUE TO THU STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RDG AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE FAIR
NIGHT THU NGT. ALL THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LVL TROF WILL PASS THRU NY AND PA SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST...THE EURO IS THE FASTEST AND THE
CMC ALSO HAS PRECIP AFFECTING NY AND PA FRIDAY. SO WILL HAVE CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PASSES BY FOR SATURDAY
WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME LINGERING SHRA WITH CHC TO
SLGHT CHC SHRA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY CUD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHRA IN NC NY DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FROM
LES SHRA SINCE H850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C AS PER EURO.
THE GFS IS QUICKER LIFTING THE COLDER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
OUT ON SUNDAY BUT HAS SOME WEAK WAA SHRA SO AGAIN SOME POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR SHRA NC NY.

HAVE POPULATED EXTENDED WITH HPC AND WILL COLLABORATE WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS FOR CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUBLISHING AND SENDING TO
NDFD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...VFR PREVAILING EARLY THIS EVNG BUT PATCHY MVFR WILL DVLP LATER
TNGT DUE TO VLY FOG AND AREAS OF BR/HZ. MAINLY VFR ON TUE.

UPR DECK ACRS ERN ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO MOV EWD OUT OF THE FCST
AREA. MEANWHILE...BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL HELP LOWER CLDS MOV INTO THE
WRN CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS TWDS DAYBREAK WHILE ANOTHER FNT MOVS
EWD FROM THE GTLAKES INTO WRN PA/NY ON TUE AFTN. MESO MDLS KEEP LOWER
CLDS EAST OF BGM/AVP LATE TNGT...BUT COULD SEE A SCENARIO WHERE
CLDS WORK INTO RME BRIEFLY ARND DAYBREAK. GIVEN MAINLY SKC
TNGT...CONDITIONS WILL BE FVRBL FOR LIFR FOG AT ELM. OTRW...MAYBE
A FEW HRS OF MVFR VSBY`S AT OTHER LOCATIONS TWDS DAYBREAK. ON
TUE...GNRLY VFR AFTER MRNG RESTRICTIONS. SCT SHRA/TSRA LATE TMRW
AFTN ACRS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SRN TIER BUT PROBS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT ELM ATTM. WINDS LIGHT THRU THE PD...WITH L&V OR
DRAINAIGE FLOWS TNGT...GNRLY SELY 5-10 KTS ON TUE.


OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM.  ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE PM.
FRI NGT...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHRA.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 291915
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
315 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND MILD AGAIN, BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BREAKING DOWN AS A SFC LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES SE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING NE ALONG THE COAST KEEPING THE SE ZONES COOLER BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR END OF SEP. IN THE WARMER AIR OF CENT NY
SOME CU HAS FORMED BUT THIS WILL DISAPPEAR NEAR SUNSET. WITH LIGHT
TO CALM LOW LEVEL WINDS VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN FORM. LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE LOW AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

SOME RAIN SHOWERS FINALLY POSSIBLE OVER THE CWA TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY. THE STORM COMING SE FROM NRN MICHIGAN WILL CLOSE OFF
ALOFT AND SLOWS AS IT MOVES THROUGH PA TUESDAY NIGHT. FORCING
COMES IN CLOSE TO MAX HEATING. AGAIN A BIG DIFFERENCE IN STABILITY
BETWEEN THE MORE STABLE GFS AND NAM. FOR NOW TOOK A BLEND AND
ADDED A LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WRN THIRD TUES AFTN AND
EVE. MODELS SHOWING MORE RAINFALL WITH THE BULK OF IT FROM THE ELM
TO AVP AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW. AFTER BEING SO DRY IT WILL HAVE
TO RAIN AT LEAST 3 INCHES FOR ANYTHING TO HAPPEN...BUT THIS IS FAR
FROM LIKELY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LATE TUE NGT TO WED UNDER THE COLD LOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT CHANCES ONLY 20 TO 30 POPS. WED NGT THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND.

THU A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CWA DRY. TEMPERATURES TUE TO THU STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RDG AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE FAIR
NIGHT THU NGT. ALL THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LVL TROF WILL PASS THRU NY AND PA SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST...THE EURO IS THE FASTEST AND THE
CMC ALSO HAS PRECIP AFFECTING NY AND PA FRIDAY. SO WILL HAVE CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PASSES BY FOR SATURDAY
WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME LINGERING SHRA WITH CHC TO
SLGHT CHC SHRA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY CUD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHRA IN NC NY DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FROM
LES SHRA SINCE H850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C AS PER EURO.
THE GFS IS QUICKER LIFTING THE COLDER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
OUT ON SUNDAY BUT HAS SOME WEAK WAA SHRA SO AGAIN SOME POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR SHRA NC NY.

HAVE POPULATED EXTENDED WITH HPC AND WILL COLLABORATE WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS FOR CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUBLISHING AND SENDING TO
NDFD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNDER HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 20 KFT OR HIGHER.
THESE CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EAST AFTER 00Z AND ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL CAUSE IDEAL NET RADITIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT VALLEY FOG FORMATION.
HAVE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KELM AT 5Z AND THEN VLIFR BTWN 8
AND 1330Z WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY WHEN THE FOG BREAKS OUT OF
KELM. I DO HAVE SOME MVFR TEMPO GROUPS AT KRME...KSYR AND A
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY AT KITH AT 09Z TO 14Z. I DO ALSO HAVE A TEMPO
IFR GROUP AT KBGM BTWN 8 AND 12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR IFR BR MOVING OUT
OF THE VALLEY AND BRIEFLY AFFECTING THE KBGM AIRFIELD AT 1600 FEET
WHICH HAPPENS OFTEN. GUIDC SUGGESTS THIS AS WELL. KAVP WILL BE VFR
THRU THE PD. AFTER 14Z...VFR WILL CONT UNDER A DEVELOPING CUMULUS
FIELD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM.  ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE PM.
FRI NGT...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHRA.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 291915
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
315 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND MILD AGAIN, BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BREAKING DOWN AS A SFC LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES SE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING NE ALONG THE COAST KEEPING THE SE ZONES COOLER BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR END OF SEP. IN THE WARMER AIR OF CENT NY
SOME CU HAS FORMED BUT THIS WILL DISAPPEAR NEAR SUNSET. WITH LIGHT
TO CALM LOW LEVEL WINDS VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN FORM. LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE LOW AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

SOME RAIN SHOWERS FINALLY POSSIBLE OVER THE CWA TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY. THE STORM COMING SE FROM NRN MICHIGAN WILL CLOSE OFF
ALOFT AND SLOWS AS IT MOVES THROUGH PA TUESDAY NIGHT. FORCING
COMES IN CLOSE TO MAX HEATING. AGAIN A BIG DIFFERENCE IN STABILITY
BETWEEN THE MORE STABLE GFS AND NAM. FOR NOW TOOK A BLEND AND
ADDED A LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WRN THIRD TUES AFTN AND
EVE. MODELS SHOWING MORE RAINFALL WITH THE BULK OF IT FROM THE ELM
TO AVP AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW. AFTER BEING SO DRY IT WILL HAVE
TO RAIN AT LEAST 3 INCHES FOR ANYTHING TO HAPPEN...BUT THIS IS FAR
FROM LIKELY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LATE TUE NGT TO WED UNDER THE COLD LOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT CHANCES ONLY 20 TO 30 POPS. WED NGT THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND.

THU A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CWA DRY. TEMPERATURES TUE TO THU STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RDG AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE FAIR
NIGHT THU NGT. ALL THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LVL TROF WILL PASS THRU NY AND PA SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST...THE EURO IS THE FASTEST AND THE
CMC ALSO HAS PRECIP AFFECTING NY AND PA FRIDAY. SO WILL HAVE CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PASSES BY FOR SATURDAY
WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME LINGERING SHRA WITH CHC TO
SLGHT CHC SHRA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY CUD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHRA IN NC NY DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FROM
LES SHRA SINCE H850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C AS PER EURO.
THE GFS IS QUICKER LIFTING THE COLDER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
OUT ON SUNDAY BUT HAS SOME WEAK WAA SHRA SO AGAIN SOME POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR SHRA NC NY.

HAVE POPULATED EXTENDED WITH HPC AND WILL COLLABORATE WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS FOR CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUBLISHING AND SENDING TO
NDFD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNDER HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 20 KFT OR HIGHER.
THESE CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EAST AFTER 00Z AND ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL CAUSE IDEAL NET RADITIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT VALLEY FOG FORMATION.
HAVE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KELM AT 5Z AND THEN VLIFR BTWN 8
AND 1330Z WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY WHEN THE FOG BREAKS OUT OF
KELM. I DO HAVE SOME MVFR TEMPO GROUPS AT KRME...KSYR AND A
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY AT KITH AT 09Z TO 14Z. I DO ALSO HAVE A TEMPO
IFR GROUP AT KBGM BTWN 8 AND 12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR IFR BR MOVING OUT
OF THE VALLEY AND BRIEFLY AFFECTING THE KBGM AIRFIELD AT 1600 FEET
WHICH HAPPENS OFTEN. GUIDC SUGGESTS THIS AS WELL. KAVP WILL BE VFR
THRU THE PD. AFTER 14Z...VFR WILL CONT UNDER A DEVELOPING CUMULUS
FIELD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM.  ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE PM.
FRI NGT...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHRA.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 291808
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
208 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD AGAIN, BEFORE A
STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...

SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE IN CENT PA DRIED UP QUICKLY. THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE SE HALF OF CWA WILL CONTINUE INTO AFTN. VALLEY FOG IN
NORWICH AND SIDNEY SLOW TO BURN OFF AND BOTH STILL HAVE A LOW
STRATUS DECK. TEMPERATURES RISING SLOWLY BUT MAX TEMPS IN U70S
STILL LOOK GOOD. DAILY RECORD HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS CLOSE.  LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS WITH WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

540 AM EDT UPDATE...
LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING AND SOME AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG. FOG IS NOT NEAR AS DENSE AS YESTERDAY AND EXPECT FOG
TO MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS
THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPER LVL RIDGE HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
AND PLENTY OF HIGH LVL MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL SITS OVER THE NY AND PA AND
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS DRAPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. THIS FRONT WILL TRY TO
MOVE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT BECOME WASHED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN NY. WE WILL REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LOWER
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEING FAIRLY DRY EVEN THOUGH THE A
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS MORE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASON NORM THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL BE SLOWER
MOVING AND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THIS LOW
WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN STREAM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRY TO BRING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BECOME
WASHED OUT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY EARLY
TUESDAY... THUS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT RESULTING IN A QUIET
EVENING AND POSSIBLY VALLEY FOG LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGH THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RDG AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE FAIR
NIGHT THU NGT. ALL THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LVL TROF WILL PASS THRU NY AND PA SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST...THE EURO IS THE FASTEST AND THE
CMC ALSO HAS PRECIP AFFECTING NY AND PA FRIDAY. SO WILL HAVE CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PASSES BY FOR SATURDAY
WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME LINGERING SHRA WITH CHC TO
SLGHT CHC SHRA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY CUD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHRA IN NC NY DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FROM
LES SHRA SINCE H850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C AS PER EURO.
THE GFS IS QUICKER LIFTING THE COLDER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
OUT ON SUNDAY BUT HAS SOME WEAK WAA SHRA SO AGAIN SOME POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR SHRA NC NY.

HAVE POPULATED EXTENDED WITH HPC AND WILL COLLABORATE WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS FOR CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUBLISHING AND SENDING TO
NDFD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNDER HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 20 KFT OR HIGHER.
THESE CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EAST AFTER 00Z AND ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL CAUSE IDEAL NET RADITIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT VALLEY FOG FORMATION.
HAVE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KELM AT 5Z AND THEN VLIFR BTWN 8
AND 1330Z WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY WHEN THE FOG BREAKS OUT OF
KELM. I DO HAVE SOME MVFR TEMPO GROUPS AT KRME...KSYR AND A
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY AT KITH AT 09Z TO 14Z. I DO ALSO HAVE A TEMPO
IFR GROUP AT KBGM BTWN 8 AND 12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR IFR BR MOVING OUT
OF THE VALLEY AND BRIEFLY AFFECTING THE KBGM AIRFIELD AT 1600 FEET
WHICH HAPPENS OFTEN. GUIDC SUGGESTS THIS AS WELL. KAVP WILL BE VFR
THRU THE PD. AFTER 14Z...VFR WILL CONT UNDER A DEVELOPING CUMULUS
FIELD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM.  ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE PM.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH/TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH/TAC
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 291808
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
208 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD AGAIN, BEFORE A
STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...

SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE IN CENT PA DRIED UP QUICKLY. THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE SE HALF OF CWA WILL CONTINUE INTO AFTN. VALLEY FOG IN
NORWICH AND SIDNEY SLOW TO BURN OFF AND BOTH STILL HAVE A LOW
STRATUS DECK. TEMPERATURES RISING SLOWLY BUT MAX TEMPS IN U70S
STILL LOOK GOOD. DAILY RECORD HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS CLOSE.  LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS WITH WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

540 AM EDT UPDATE...
LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING AND SOME AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG. FOG IS NOT NEAR AS DENSE AS YESTERDAY AND EXPECT FOG
TO MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS
THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPER LVL RIDGE HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
AND PLENTY OF HIGH LVL MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL SITS OVER THE NY AND PA AND
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS DRAPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. THIS FRONT WILL TRY TO
MOVE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT BECOME WASHED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN NY. WE WILL REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LOWER
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEING FAIRLY DRY EVEN THOUGH THE A
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS MORE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASON NORM THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL BE SLOWER
MOVING AND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THIS LOW
WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN STREAM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRY TO BRING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BECOME
WASHED OUT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY EARLY
TUESDAY... THUS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT RESULTING IN A QUIET
EVENING AND POSSIBLY VALLEY FOG LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGH THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RDG AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE FAIR
NIGHT THU NGT. ALL THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LVL TROF WILL PASS THRU NY AND PA SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST...THE EURO IS THE FASTEST AND THE
CMC ALSO HAS PRECIP AFFECTING NY AND PA FRIDAY. SO WILL HAVE CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PASSES BY FOR SATURDAY
WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME LINGERING SHRA WITH CHC TO
SLGHT CHC SHRA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY CUD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHRA IN NC NY DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FROM
LES SHRA SINCE H850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C AS PER EURO.
THE GFS IS QUICKER LIFTING THE COLDER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
OUT ON SUNDAY BUT HAS SOME WEAK WAA SHRA SO AGAIN SOME POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR SHRA NC NY.

HAVE POPULATED EXTENDED WITH HPC AND WILL COLLABORATE WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS FOR CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUBLISHING AND SENDING TO
NDFD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNDER HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 20 KFT OR HIGHER.
THESE CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EAST AFTER 00Z AND ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL CAUSE IDEAL NET RADITIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT VALLEY FOG FORMATION.
HAVE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KELM AT 5Z AND THEN VLIFR BTWN 8
AND 1330Z WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY WHEN THE FOG BREAKS OUT OF
KELM. I DO HAVE SOME MVFR TEMPO GROUPS AT KRME...KSYR AND A
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY AT KITH AT 09Z TO 14Z. I DO ALSO HAVE A TEMPO
IFR GROUP AT KBGM BTWN 8 AND 12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR IFR BR MOVING OUT
OF THE VALLEY AND BRIEFLY AFFECTING THE KBGM AIRFIELD AT 1600 FEET
WHICH HAPPENS OFTEN. GUIDC SUGGESTS THIS AS WELL. KAVP WILL BE VFR
THRU THE PD. AFTER 14Z...VFR WILL CONT UNDER A DEVELOPING CUMULUS
FIELD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM.  ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE PM.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH/TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH/TAC
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 291432
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1032 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD AGAIN, BEFORE A
STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...

SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE IN CENT PA DRIED UP QUICKLY. THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE SE HALF OF CWA WILL CONTINUE INTO AFTN. VALLEY FOG IN
NORWICH AND SIDNEY SLOW TO BURN OFF AND BOTH STILL HAVE A LOW
STRATUS DECK. TEMPERATURES RISING SLOWLY BUT MAX TEMPS IN U70S
STILL LOOK GOOD. DAILY RECORD HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS CLOSE.  LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS WITH WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

540 AM EDT UPDATE...
LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING AND SOME AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG. FOG IS NOT NEAR AS DENSE AS YESTERDAY AND EXPECT FOG
TO MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS
THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPER LVL RIDGE HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
AND PLENTY OF HIGH LVL MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL SITS OVER THE NY AND PA AND
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS DRAPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. THIS FRONT WILL TRY TO
MOVE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT BECOME WASHED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN NY. WE WILL REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LOWER
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEING FAIRLY DRY EVEN THOUGH THE A
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS MORE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASON NORM THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL BE SLOWER
MOVING AND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THIS LOW
WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN STREAM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRY TO BRING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BECOME
WASHED OUT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY EARLY
TUESDAY... THUS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT RESULTING IN A QUIET
EVENING AND POSSIBLY VALLEY FOG LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
CONTINUED INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN FRI AFTERNOON-NIGHT BATCH OF
SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT DEPICTED BY GFS-ECMWF-
GEM MODELS. WE HAVE POPS UP TO 50 PCT RANGE DURING THAT TIME...AND
I ANTICIPATE IF MODELS STAY CONSISTENT...WE WILL PROBABLY BE
ABLE TO RAMP UP SOON INTO LIKELY CATEGORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST
UPDATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE. WED TO
THU NGT DRY AND MILD WITH A RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AND UL TROF. FROPA FRI NGT
WITH SHOWERS FRI AFTN TO FRI NGT. POSSIBLE CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SAT TO MON UNDER THE TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
DIFFERENT SET UP FROM PRIOR MORNINGS WHEN VALLEY FOG WAS THICK AND
INVOLVED SEVERAL TERMINALS. SURFACE HIGH HAS LOST DEFINITION
WHILE SLIDING SOUTH...WHILE ALOFT THE RIDGE HAS FLATTENED AND A
SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN SHIELD OF CIRRUS IN THE 18-25 KFT
AGL LAYER. THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MADE FOG MUCH MORE PATCHY AND THIN
COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. MVFR/BRIEF IFR VIS STILL POSSIBLE
KELM 12Z-14Z...BUT NO OTHER TERMINALS WITH RESTRICTIONS. VFR
THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT...FEWER CLOUDS INVOLVED AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES...SO FOG WILL BE EASIER TO FORM.
EXPECTING NEAR AIRPORT MINS TO DEVELOP AT KELM ESPECIALLY 08Z-
12Z...AND FOR KBGM- KITH SOME MVFR...OTHERWISE RESTRICTIONS NOT
ANTICIPATED. WINDS THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD BETWEEN 0-5 KTS AND
VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH/TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH/TAC
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 291041
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY PROVIDING DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TO NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. ON TUESDAY THE WEATHER WILL
START TO BECOME MORE FALL LIKE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM EDT UPDATE...
LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING AND SOME AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG. FOG IS NOT NEAR AS DENSE AS YESTERDAY AND EXPECT FOG
TO MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS
THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. FOR MORE INFORMATION
PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPER LVL RIDGE HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
AND PLENTY OF HIGH LVL MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL SITS OVER THE NY AND PA AND
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS DRAPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. THIS FRONT WILL TRY TO
MOVE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT BECOME WASHED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN NY. WE WILL REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LOWER
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEING FAIRLY DRY EVEN THOUGH THE A
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS MORE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASON NORM THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL BE SLOWER
MOVING AND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THIS LOW
WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN STREAM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRY TO BRING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BECOME
WASHED OUT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY EARLY
TUESDAY... THUS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT RESULTING IN A QUIET
EVENING AND POSSIBLY VALLEY FOG LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
CONTINUED INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN FRI AFTERNOON-NIGHT BATCH OF
SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT DEPICTED BY GFS-ECMWF-
GEM MODELS. WE HAVE POPS UP TO 50 PCT RANGE DURING THAT TIME...AND I
ANTICIPATE IF MODELS STAY CONSISTENT...WE WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO
RAMP UP SOON INTO LIKELY CATEGORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST UPDATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE. WED TO
THU NGT DRY AND MILD WITH A RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AND UL TROF. FROPA FRI NGT
WITH SHOWERS FRI AFTN TO FRI NGT. POSSIBLE CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SAT TO MON UNDER THE TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
DIFFERENT SET UP FROM PRIOR MORNINGS WHEN VALLEY FOG WAS THICK AND
INVOLVED SEVERAL TERMINALS. SURFACE HIGH HAS LOST DEFINITION
WHILE SLIDING SOUTH...WHILE ALOFT THE RIDGE HAS FLATTENED AND A
SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN SHIELD OF CIRRUS IN THE 18-25 KFT
AGL LAYER. THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MADE FOG MUCH MORE PATCHY AND THIN
COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. MVFR/BRIEF IFR VIS STILL POSSIBLE
KELM 12Z-14Z...BUT NO OTHER TERMINALS WITH RESTRICTIONS. VFR THROUGH
THE DAY. TONIGHT...FEWER CLOUDS INVOLVED AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES...SO FOG WILL BE EASIER TO FORM. EXPECTING
NEAR AIRPORT MINS TO DEVELOP AT KELM ESPECIALLY 08Z- 12Z...AND FOR
KBGM- KITH SOME MVFR...OTHERWISE RESTRICTIONS NOT ANTICIPATED.
WINDS THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD BETWEEN 0-5 KTS AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 291041
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY PROVIDING DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TO NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. ON TUESDAY THE WEATHER WILL
START TO BECOME MORE FALL LIKE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM EDT UPDATE...
LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING AND SOME AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG. FOG IS NOT NEAR AS DENSE AS YESTERDAY AND EXPECT FOG
TO MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS
THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. FOR MORE INFORMATION
PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPER LVL RIDGE HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
AND PLENTY OF HIGH LVL MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL SITS OVER THE NY AND PA AND
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS DRAPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. THIS FRONT WILL TRY TO
MOVE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT BECOME WASHED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN NY. WE WILL REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LOWER
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEING FAIRLY DRY EVEN THOUGH THE A
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS MORE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASON NORM THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL BE SLOWER
MOVING AND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THIS LOW
WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN STREAM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRY TO BRING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BECOME
WASHED OUT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY EARLY
TUESDAY... THUS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT RESULTING IN A QUIET
EVENING AND POSSIBLY VALLEY FOG LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
CONTINUED INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN FRI AFTERNOON-NIGHT BATCH OF
SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT DEPICTED BY GFS-ECMWF-
GEM MODELS. WE HAVE POPS UP TO 50 PCT RANGE DURING THAT TIME...AND I
ANTICIPATE IF MODELS STAY CONSISTENT...WE WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO
RAMP UP SOON INTO LIKELY CATEGORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST UPDATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE. WED TO
THU NGT DRY AND MILD WITH A RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AND UL TROF. FROPA FRI NGT
WITH SHOWERS FRI AFTN TO FRI NGT. POSSIBLE CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SAT TO MON UNDER THE TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
DIFFERENT SET UP FROM PRIOR MORNINGS WHEN VALLEY FOG WAS THICK AND
INVOLVED SEVERAL TERMINALS. SURFACE HIGH HAS LOST DEFINITION
WHILE SLIDING SOUTH...WHILE ALOFT THE RIDGE HAS FLATTENED AND A
SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN SHIELD OF CIRRUS IN THE 18-25 KFT
AGL LAYER. THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MADE FOG MUCH MORE PATCHY AND THIN
COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. MVFR/BRIEF IFR VIS STILL POSSIBLE
KELM 12Z-14Z...BUT NO OTHER TERMINALS WITH RESTRICTIONS. VFR THROUGH
THE DAY. TONIGHT...FEWER CLOUDS INVOLVED AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES...SO FOG WILL BE EASIER TO FORM. EXPECTING
NEAR AIRPORT MINS TO DEVELOP AT KELM ESPECIALLY 08Z- 12Z...AND FOR
KBGM- KITH SOME MVFR...OTHERWISE RESTRICTIONS NOT ANTICIPATED.
WINDS THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD BETWEEN 0-5 KTS AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 290943
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
543 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY PROVIDING DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TO NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. ON TUESDAY THE WEATHER WILL
START TO BECOME MORE FALL LIKE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM EDT UPDATE...
LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING AND SOME AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG. FOG IS NOT NEAR AS DENSE AS YESTERDAY AND EXPECT FOG
TO MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS
THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. FOR MORE INFORMATION
PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPER LVL RIDGE HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
AND PLENTY OF HIGH LVL MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL SITS OVER THE NY AND PA AND
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS DRAPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. THIS FRONT WILL TRY TO
MOVE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT BECOME WASHED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN NY. WE WILL REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LOWER
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEING FAIRLY DRY EVEN THOUGH THE A
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS MORE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASON NORM THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL BE SLOWER
MOVING AND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THIS LOW
WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN STREAM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRY TO BRING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BECOME
WASHED OUT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY EARLY
TUESDAY... THUS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT RESULTING IN A QUIET
EVENING AND POSSIBLY VALLEY FOG LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
CONTINUED INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN FRI AFTERNOON-NIGHT BATCH OF
SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT DEPICTED BY GFS-ECMWF-
GEM MODELS. WE HAVE POPS UP TO 50 PCT RANGE DURING THAT TIME...AND I
ANTICIPATE IF MODELS STAY CONSISTENT...WE WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO
RAMP UP SOON INTO LIKELY CATEGORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST UPDATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE. WED TO
THU NGT DRY AND MILD WITH A RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AND UL TROF. FROPA FRI NGT
WITH SHOWERS FRI AFTN TO FRI NGT. POSSIBLE CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SAT TO MON UNDER THE TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
DIFFERENT SET UP FROM PRIOR NIGHTS WHEN VALLEY FOG WAS THICK AND
INVOLVED SEVERAL TERMINALS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH HAS LOST
DEFINITION WHILE SLIDING SOUTH...WHILE ALOFT THE RIDGE HAS
FLATTENED AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN SHIELD OF CIRRUS IN
THE 18-25 KFT AGL LAYER. I STILL EXPECT FOG TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
KELM BUT NOT NEARLY AS THICK NOR AS LONG IN DURATION AS PRIOR
NIGHTS. BELOW ALT MINS AT TIMES BETWEEN 09Z-13Z...BUT AIRPORT MINS
LOOKING MORE DOUBTFUL UNLIKE 24 HRS AGO BECAUSE OF THE EXTENT OF
HIGH CLOUDS. WITH CONDITIONS NOT IDEAL FOR VALLEY FOG...ALL
TERMINALS BESIDES KELM LIKELY TO STAY VFR. DURING THE DAY...VFR
WITH BKN CIRRUS BECOMING MORE SCT...AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5
KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP










000
FXUS61 KBGM 290943
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
543 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY PROVIDING DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TO NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. ON TUESDAY THE WEATHER WILL
START TO BECOME MORE FALL LIKE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM EDT UPDATE...
LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING AND SOME AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG. FOG IS NOT NEAR AS DENSE AS YESTERDAY AND EXPECT FOG
TO MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS
THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. FOR MORE INFORMATION
PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPER LVL RIDGE HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
AND PLENTY OF HIGH LVL MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL SITS OVER THE NY AND PA AND
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS DRAPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. THIS FRONT WILL TRY TO
MOVE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT BECOME WASHED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN NY. WE WILL REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LOWER
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEING FAIRLY DRY EVEN THOUGH THE A
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS MORE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASON NORM THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL BE SLOWER
MOVING AND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THIS LOW
WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN STREAM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRY TO BRING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BECOME
WASHED OUT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY EARLY
TUESDAY... THUS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT RESULTING IN A QUIET
EVENING AND POSSIBLY VALLEY FOG LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
CONTINUED INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN FRI AFTERNOON-NIGHT BATCH OF
SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT DEPICTED BY GFS-ECMWF-
GEM MODELS. WE HAVE POPS UP TO 50 PCT RANGE DURING THAT TIME...AND I
ANTICIPATE IF MODELS STAY CONSISTENT...WE WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO
RAMP UP SOON INTO LIKELY CATEGORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST UPDATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE. WED TO
THU NGT DRY AND MILD WITH A RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AND UL TROF. FROPA FRI NGT
WITH SHOWERS FRI AFTN TO FRI NGT. POSSIBLE CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SAT TO MON UNDER THE TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
DIFFERENT SET UP FROM PRIOR NIGHTS WHEN VALLEY FOG WAS THICK AND
INVOLVED SEVERAL TERMINALS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH HAS LOST
DEFINITION WHILE SLIDING SOUTH...WHILE ALOFT THE RIDGE HAS
FLATTENED AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN SHIELD OF CIRRUS IN
THE 18-25 KFT AGL LAYER. I STILL EXPECT FOG TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
KELM BUT NOT NEARLY AS THICK NOR AS LONG IN DURATION AS PRIOR
NIGHTS. BELOW ALT MINS AT TIMES BETWEEN 09Z-13Z...BUT AIRPORT MINS
LOOKING MORE DOUBTFUL UNLIKE 24 HRS AGO BECAUSE OF THE EXTENT OF
HIGH CLOUDS. WITH CONDITIONS NOT IDEAL FOR VALLEY FOG...ALL
TERMINALS BESIDES KELM LIKELY TO STAY VFR. DURING THE DAY...VFR
WITH BKN CIRRUS BECOMING MORE SCT...AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5
KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP











000
FXUS61 KBGM 290731
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
331 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY PROVIDING DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TO NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. ON TUESDAY THE WEATHER WILL
START TO BECOME MORE FALL LIKE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPER LVL RIDGE HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
AND PLENTY OF HIGH LVL MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL SITS OVER THE NY AND PA AND
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS DRAPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. THIS FRONT WILL TRY TO
MOVE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT BECOME WASHED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN NY. WE WILL REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LOWER
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEING FAIRLY DRY EVEN THOUGH THE A
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS MORE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASON NORM THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL BE SLOWER
MOVING AND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THIS LOW
WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN STREAM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRY TO BRING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BECOME
WASHED OUT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY EARLY
TUESDAY... THUS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT RESULTING IN A QUIET
EVENING AND POSSIBLY VALLEY FOG LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
CONTINUED INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN FRI AFTERNOON-NIGHT BATCH OF
SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT DEPICTED BY GFS-ECMWF-
GEM MODELS. WE HAVE POPS UP TO 50 PCT RANGE DURING THAT TIME...AND I
ANTICIPATE IF MODELS STAY CONSISTENT...WE WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO
RAMP UP SOON INTO LIKELY CATEGORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST UPDATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE. WED TO
THU NGT DRY AND MILD WITH A RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AND UL TROF. FROPA FRI NGT
WITH SHOWERS FRI AFTN TO FRI NGT. POSSIBLE CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SAT TO MON UNDER THE TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
DIFFERENT SET UP FROM PRIOR NIGHTS WHEN VALLEY FOG WAS THICK AND
INVOLVED SEVERAL TERMINALS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH HAS LOST
DEFINITION WHILE SLIDING SOUTH...WHILE ALOFT THE RIDGE HAS
FLATTENED AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN SHIELD OF CIRRUS IN
THE 18-25 KFT AGL LAYER. I STILL EXPECT FOG TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
KELM BUT NOT NEARLY AS THICK NOR AS LONG IN DURATION AS PRIOR
NIGHTS. BELOW ALT MINS AT TIMES BETWEEN 09Z-13Z...BUT AIRPORT MINS
LOOKING MORE DOUBTFUL UNLIKE 24 HRS AGO BECAUSE OF THE EXTENT OF
HIGH CLOUDS. WITH CONDITIONS NOT IDEAL FOR VALLEY FOG...ALL
TERMINALS BESIDES KELM LIKELY TO STAY VFR. DURING THE DAY...VFR
WITH BKN CIRRUS BECOMING MORE SCT...AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5
KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 290731
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
331 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY PROVIDING DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TO NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. ON TUESDAY THE WEATHER WILL
START TO BECOME MORE FALL LIKE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPER LVL RIDGE HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
AND PLENTY OF HIGH LVL MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL SITS OVER THE NY AND PA AND
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS DRAPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. THIS FRONT WILL TRY TO
MOVE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT BECOME WASHED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN NY. WE WILL REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LOWER
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEING FAIRLY DRY EVEN THOUGH THE A
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS MORE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASON NORM THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL BE SLOWER
MOVING AND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THIS LOW
WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN STREAM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRY TO BRING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BECOME
WASHED OUT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY EARLY
TUESDAY... THUS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT RESULTING IN A QUIET
EVENING AND POSSIBLY VALLEY FOG LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
CONTINUED INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN FRI AFTERNOON-NIGHT BATCH OF
SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT DEPICTED BY GFS-ECMWF-
GEM MODELS. WE HAVE POPS UP TO 50 PCT RANGE DURING THAT TIME...AND I
ANTICIPATE IF MODELS STAY CONSISTENT...WE WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO
RAMP UP SOON INTO LIKELY CATEGORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST UPDATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE. WED TO
THU NGT DRY AND MILD WITH A RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AND UL TROF. FROPA FRI NGT
WITH SHOWERS FRI AFTN TO FRI NGT. POSSIBLE CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SAT TO MON UNDER THE TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
DIFFERENT SET UP FROM PRIOR NIGHTS WHEN VALLEY FOG WAS THICK AND
INVOLVED SEVERAL TERMINALS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH HAS LOST
DEFINITION WHILE SLIDING SOUTH...WHILE ALOFT THE RIDGE HAS
FLATTENED AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN SHIELD OF CIRRUS IN
THE 18-25 KFT AGL LAYER. I STILL EXPECT FOG TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
KELM BUT NOT NEARLY AS THICK NOR AS LONG IN DURATION AS PRIOR
NIGHTS. BELOW ALT MINS AT TIMES BETWEEN 09Z-13Z...BUT AIRPORT MINS
LOOKING MORE DOUBTFUL UNLIKE 24 HRS AGO BECAUSE OF THE EXTENT OF
HIGH CLOUDS. WITH CONDITIONS NOT IDEAL FOR VALLEY FOG...ALL
TERMINALS BESIDES KELM LIKELY TO STAY VFR. DURING THE DAY...VFR
WITH BKN CIRRUS BECOMING MORE SCT...AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5
KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 290650
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
250 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY PROVIDING DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TO NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. ON TUESDAY THE WEATHER WILL
START TO BECOME MORE FALL LIKE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPER LVL RIDGE HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
AND PLENTY OF HIGH LVL MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL SITS OVER THE NY AND PA AND
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS DRAPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. THIS FRONT WILL TRY TO
MOVE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT BECOME WASHED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN NY. WE WILL REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LOWER
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEING FAIRLY DRY EVEN THOUGH THE A
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS MORE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASON NORM THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL BE SLOWER
MOVING AND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THIS LOW
WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN STREAM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRY TO BRING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BECOME
WASHED OUT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY EARLY
TUESDAY... THUS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT RESULTING IN A QUIET
EVENING AND POSSIBLY VALLEY FOG LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE. WED TO
THU NGT DRY AND MILD WITH A RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AND UL TROF. FROPA FRI NGT
WITH SHOWERS FRI AFTN TO FRI NGT. POSSIBLE CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SAT TO MON UNDER THE TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
DIFFERENT SET UP FROM PRIOR NIGHTS WHEN VALLEY FOG WAS THICK AND
INVOLVED SEVERAL TERMINALS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH HAS LOST
DEFINITION WHILE SLIDING SOUTH...WHILE ALOFT THE RIDGE HAS
FLATTENED AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN SHIELD OF CIRRUS IN
THE 18-25 KFT AGL LAYER. I STILL EXPECT FOG TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
KELM BUT NOT NEARLY AS THICK NOR AS LONG IN DURATION AS PRIOR
NIGHTS. BELOW ALT MINS AT TIMES BETWEEN 09Z-13Z...BUT AIRPORT MINS
LOOKING MORE DOUBTFUL UNLIKE 24 HRS AGO BECAUSE OF THE EXTENT OF
HIGH CLOUDS. WITH CONDITIONS NOT IDEAL FOR VALLEY FOG...ALL
TERMINALS BESIDES KELM LIKELY TO STAY VFR. DURING THE DAY...VFR
WITH BKN CIRRUS BECOMING MORE SCT...AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5
KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP










000
FXUS61 KBGM 290650
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
250 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY PROVIDING DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TO NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. ON TUESDAY THE WEATHER WILL
START TO BECOME MORE FALL LIKE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPER LVL RIDGE HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
AND PLENTY OF HIGH LVL MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL SITS OVER THE NY AND PA AND
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS DRAPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. THIS FRONT WILL TRY TO
MOVE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT BECOME WASHED OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN NY. WE WILL REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LOWER
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEING FAIRLY DRY EVEN THOUGH THE A
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS MORE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASON NORM THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL BE SLOWER
MOVING AND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THIS LOW
WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN STREAM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRY TO BRING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BECOME
WASHED OUT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY EARLY
TUESDAY... THUS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT RESULTING IN A QUIET
EVENING AND POSSIBLY VALLEY FOG LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING.

TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE. WED TO
THU NGT DRY AND MILD WITH A RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AND UL TROF. FROPA FRI NGT
WITH SHOWERS FRI AFTN TO FRI NGT. POSSIBLE CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SAT TO MON UNDER THE TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
DIFFERENT SET UP FROM PRIOR NIGHTS WHEN VALLEY FOG WAS THICK AND
INVOLVED SEVERAL TERMINALS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH HAS LOST
DEFINITION WHILE SLIDING SOUTH...WHILE ALOFT THE RIDGE HAS
FLATTENED AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN SHIELD OF CIRRUS IN
THE 18-25 KFT AGL LAYER. I STILL EXPECT FOG TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
KELM BUT NOT NEARLY AS THICK NOR AS LONG IN DURATION AS PRIOR
NIGHTS. BELOW ALT MINS AT TIMES BETWEEN 09Z-13Z...BUT AIRPORT MINS
LOOKING MORE DOUBTFUL UNLIKE 24 HRS AGO BECAUSE OF THE EXTENT OF
HIGH CLOUDS. WITH CONDITIONS NOT IDEAL FOR VALLEY FOG...ALL
TERMINALS BESIDES KELM LIKELY TO STAY VFR. DURING THE DAY...VFR
WITH BKN CIRRUS BECOMING MORE SCT...AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5
KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP











000
FXUS61 KBGM 290559
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR ANOTHER
DAY PROVIDING DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
940 PM UPDATE...HIGH CLOUDS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S EXCEPT FOR THE NORMALLY COOLER AREAS. VALLEY
FOG WILL FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE TWIN TIERS BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS DUE TO THE HIGH
OVERCAST. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISC...
STARTING TO GET SOME HI CLDS NOW AS THE RDG BRKS DOWN. FCSTD
SNDGS OVRNGT SHOW A FAIR AMT OF UPR LVL MOISTURE TNGT...SO WHILE
VLY FOG SEEMS RSNBL...DOESN/T LOOK LIKE WE/LL SEE THE KIND OF
DEPTH AND CVRG THAT WE HAD THE PAST FEW NGTS. OTRW...WITH THE
INCRSD UPPER LVL MOISTURE...TEMPS WILL EB A FEW DEGREES HIER THAN
PRVS NGTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY DAY ON MON BUT WITH LWRG HGTS AND A BRK DOWN OF THE
SFC RDG...NAM SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHWRS OVER THE AREA.
OTR MODELS DRY AND EVEN THE NAM IS RATHER ISLTD SO WILL KEEP MON
PCPN FREE FOR NOW. UPR TROF CONTS TO DROP IN TWRD TUE AS THE SFC
FNT QUICKLY WASHES OUT. THIS SILL RESULT IN INCRSD INSTABILITY AND
A CHANCE OF SHWRS TUE. ONCE AGAIN...NAM SHOWING MORE INSTABILITY
WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES BUT EVEN SO...NOT ENUF TO JUSTIFY
TRW IN THE FCST ATTM. GFS AND EURO SHOWS LESS INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHWRS PSBL WED...ESP OVER THE EAST...AS THE UPR LOW
DRIFTS EAST AND A NARROW RDG OVER THE LAKES BLDS INTO THE AREA.
DAYTIME TEMPS SHD REMAIN ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE. WED TO
THU NGT DRY AND MILD WITH A RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AND UL TROF. FROPA FRI NGT
WITH SHOWERS FRI AFTN TO FRI NGT. POSSIBLE CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SAT TO MON UNDER THE TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
DIFFERENT SET UP FROM PRIOR NIGHTS WHEN VALLEY FOG WAS THICK AND
INVOLVED SEVERAL TERMINALS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH HAS LOST
DEFINITION WHILE SLIDING SOUTH...WHILE ALOFT THE RIDGE HAS
FLATTENED AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN SHIELD OF CIRRUS IN
THE 18-25 KFT AGL LAYER. I STILL EXPECT FOG TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
KELM BUT NOT NEARLY AS THICK NOR AS LONG IN DURATION AS PRIOR
NIGHTS. BELOW ALT MINS AT TIMES BETWEEN 09Z-13Z...BUT AIRPORT MINS
LOOKING MORE DOUBTFUL UNLIKE 24 HRS AGO BECAUSE OF THE EXTENT OF
HIGH CLOUDS. WITH CONDITIONS NOT IDEAL FOR VALLEY FOG...ALL
TERMINALS BESIDES KELM LIKELY TO STAY VFR. DURING THE DAY...VFR
WITH BKN CIRRUS BECOMING MORE SCT...AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5
KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 290559
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR ANOTHER
DAY PROVIDING DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
940 PM UPDATE...HIGH CLOUDS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S EXCEPT FOR THE NORMALLY COOLER AREAS. VALLEY
FOG WILL FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE TWIN TIERS BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS DUE TO THE HIGH
OVERCAST. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISC...
STARTING TO GET SOME HI CLDS NOW AS THE RDG BRKS DOWN. FCSTD
SNDGS OVRNGT SHOW A FAIR AMT OF UPR LVL MOISTURE TNGT...SO WHILE
VLY FOG SEEMS RSNBL...DOESN/T LOOK LIKE WE/LL SEE THE KIND OF
DEPTH AND CVRG THAT WE HAD THE PAST FEW NGTS. OTRW...WITH THE
INCRSD UPPER LVL MOISTURE...TEMPS WILL EB A FEW DEGREES HIER THAN
PRVS NGTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY DAY ON MON BUT WITH LWRG HGTS AND A BRK DOWN OF THE
SFC RDG...NAM SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHWRS OVER THE AREA.
OTR MODELS DRY AND EVEN THE NAM IS RATHER ISLTD SO WILL KEEP MON
PCPN FREE FOR NOW. UPR TROF CONTS TO DROP IN TWRD TUE AS THE SFC
FNT QUICKLY WASHES OUT. THIS SILL RESULT IN INCRSD INSTABILITY AND
A CHANCE OF SHWRS TUE. ONCE AGAIN...NAM SHOWING MORE INSTABILITY
WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES BUT EVEN SO...NOT ENUF TO JUSTIFY
TRW IN THE FCST ATTM. GFS AND EURO SHOWS LESS INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHWRS PSBL WED...ESP OVER THE EAST...AS THE UPR LOW
DRIFTS EAST AND A NARROW RDG OVER THE LAKES BLDS INTO THE AREA.
DAYTIME TEMPS SHD REMAIN ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE. WED TO
THU NGT DRY AND MILD WITH A RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AND UL TROF. FROPA FRI NGT
WITH SHOWERS FRI AFTN TO FRI NGT. POSSIBLE CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SAT TO MON UNDER THE TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
DIFFERENT SET UP FROM PRIOR NIGHTS WHEN VALLEY FOG WAS THICK AND
INVOLVED SEVERAL TERMINALS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH HAS LOST
DEFINITION WHILE SLIDING SOUTH...WHILE ALOFT THE RIDGE HAS
FLATTENED AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN SHIELD OF CIRRUS IN
THE 18-25 KFT AGL LAYER. I STILL EXPECT FOG TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
KELM BUT NOT NEARLY AS THICK NOR AS LONG IN DURATION AS PRIOR
NIGHTS. BELOW ALT MINS AT TIMES BETWEEN 09Z-13Z...BUT AIRPORT MINS
LOOKING MORE DOUBTFUL UNLIKE 24 HRS AGO BECAUSE OF THE EXTENT OF
HIGH CLOUDS. WITH CONDITIONS NOT IDEAL FOR VALLEY FOG...ALL
TERMINALS BESIDES KELM LIKELY TO STAY VFR. DURING THE DAY...VFR
WITH BKN CIRRUS BECOMING MORE SCT...AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5
KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 290144
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
944 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR ANOTHER
DAY PROVIDING DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
940 PM UPDATE...HIGH CLOUDS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S EXCEPT FOR THE NORMALLY COOLER AREAS. VALLEY
FOG WILL FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE TWIN TIERS BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS DUE TO THE HIGH
OVERCAST. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISC...
STARTING TO GET SOME HI CLDS NOW AS THE RDG BRKS DOWN. FCSTD
SNDGS OVRNGT SHOW A FAIR AMT OF UPR LVL MOISTURE TNGT...SO WHILE
VLY FOG SEEMS RSNBL...DOESN/T LOOK LIKE WE/LL SEE THE KIND OF
DEPTH AND CVRG THAT WE HAD THE PAST FEW NGTS. OTRW...WITH THE
INCRSD UPPER LVL MOISTURE...TEMPS WILL EB A FEW DEGREES HIER THAN
PRVS NGTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY DAY ON MON BUT WITH LWRG HGTS AND A BRK DOWN OF THE
SFC RDG...NAM SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHWRS OVER THE AREA.
OTR MODELS DRY AND EVEN THE NAM IS RATHER ISLTD SO WILL KEEP MON
PCPN FREE FOR NOW. UPR TROF CONTS TO DROP IN TWRD TUE AS THE SFC
FNT QUICKLY WASHES OUT. THIS SILL RESULT IN INCRSD INSTABILITY AND
A CHANCE OF SHWRS TUE. ONCE AGAIN...NAM SHOWING MORE INSTABILITY
WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES BUT EVEN SO...NOT ENUF TO JUSTIFY
TRW IN THE FCST ATTM. GFS AND EURO SHOWS LESS INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHWRS PSBL WED...ESP OVER THE EAST...AS THE UPR LOW
DRIFTS EAST AND A NARROW RDG OVER THE LAKES BLDS INTO THE AREA.
DAYTIME TEMPS SHD REMAIN ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE. WED TO
THU NGT DRY AND MILD WITH A RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AND UL TROF. FROPA FRI NGT
WITH SHOWERS FRI AFTN TO FRI NGT. POSSIBLE CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SAT TO MON UNDER THE TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH A FLATTENING RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE BKN CI CLOUDS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT AND DELAY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LOCAL CHECKLIST INDICATES
DENSE FOG STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KELM. FOR NOW WENT WITH IFR
FOG BEGINNING AT 06Z WITH CONDITIONS OCCASIONALLY NEAR AIRPORT
MINS BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND MORE HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT LEFT FOG OUT OF REMAINING TAFS EXCEPT FOR KBGM WHERE
MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z WHEN IT LIFTS OUT OF THE LOCAL
VALLEY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 290144
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
944 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR ANOTHER
DAY PROVIDING DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
940 PM UPDATE...HIGH CLOUDS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S EXCEPT FOR THE NORMALLY COOLER AREAS. VALLEY
FOG WILL FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE TWIN TIERS BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS DUE TO THE HIGH
OVERCAST. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISC...
STARTING TO GET SOME HI CLDS NOW AS THE RDG BRKS DOWN. FCSTD
SNDGS OVRNGT SHOW A FAIR AMT OF UPR LVL MOISTURE TNGT...SO WHILE
VLY FOG SEEMS RSNBL...DOESN/T LOOK LIKE WE/LL SEE THE KIND OF
DEPTH AND CVRG THAT WE HAD THE PAST FEW NGTS. OTRW...WITH THE
INCRSD UPPER LVL MOISTURE...TEMPS WILL EB A FEW DEGREES HIER THAN
PRVS NGTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY DAY ON MON BUT WITH LWRG HGTS AND A BRK DOWN OF THE
SFC RDG...NAM SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHWRS OVER THE AREA.
OTR MODELS DRY AND EVEN THE NAM IS RATHER ISLTD SO WILL KEEP MON
PCPN FREE FOR NOW. UPR TROF CONTS TO DROP IN TWRD TUE AS THE SFC
FNT QUICKLY WASHES OUT. THIS SILL RESULT IN INCRSD INSTABILITY AND
A CHANCE OF SHWRS TUE. ONCE AGAIN...NAM SHOWING MORE INSTABILITY
WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES BUT EVEN SO...NOT ENUF TO JUSTIFY
TRW IN THE FCST ATTM. GFS AND EURO SHOWS LESS INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHWRS PSBL WED...ESP OVER THE EAST...AS THE UPR LOW
DRIFTS EAST AND A NARROW RDG OVER THE LAKES BLDS INTO THE AREA.
DAYTIME TEMPS SHD REMAIN ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE. WED TO
THU NGT DRY AND MILD WITH A RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AND UL TROF. FROPA FRI NGT
WITH SHOWERS FRI AFTN TO FRI NGT. POSSIBLE CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SAT TO MON UNDER THE TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH A FLATTENING RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE BKN CI CLOUDS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT AND DELAY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LOCAL CHECKLIST INDICATES
DENSE FOG STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KELM. FOR NOW WENT WITH IFR
FOG BEGINNING AT 06Z WITH CONDITIONS OCCASIONALLY NEAR AIRPORT
MINS BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND MORE HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT LEFT FOG OUT OF REMAINING TAFS EXCEPT FOR KBGM WHERE
MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z WHEN IT LIFTS OUT OF THE LOCAL
VALLEY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 282348
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
748 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR ANOTHER
DAY PROVIDING DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
STARTING TO GET SOME HI CLDS NOW AS THE RDG BRKS DOWN. FCSTD SNDGS
OVRNGT SHOW A FAIR AMT OF UPR LVL MOISTURE TNGT...SO WHILE VLY FOG
SEEMS RSNBL...DOESN/T LOOK LIKE WE/LL SEE THE KIND OF DEPTH AND
CVRG THAT WE HAD THE PAST FEW NGTS. OTRW...WITH THE INCRSD UPPER
LVL MOISTURE...TEMPS WILL EB A FEW DEGREES HIER THAN PRVS NGTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY DAY ON MON BUT WITH LWRG HGTS AND A BRK DOWN OF THE
SFC RDG...NAM SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHWRS OVER THE AREA.
OTR MODELS DRY AND EVEN THE NAM IS RATHER ISLTD SO WILL KEEP MON
PCPN FREE FOR NOW. UPR TROF CONTS TO DROP IN TWRD TUE AS THE SFC
FNT QUICKLY WASHES OUT. THIS SILL RESULT IN INCRSD INSTABILITY AND
A CHANCE OF SHWRS TUE. ONCE AGAIN...NAM SHOWING MORE INSTABILITY
WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES BUT EVEN SO...NOT ENUF TO JUSTIFY
TRW IN THE FCST ATTM. GFS AND EURO SHOWS LESS INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHWRS PSBL WED...ESP OVER THE EAST...AS THE UPR LOW
DRIFTS EAST AND A NARROW RDG OVER THE LAKES BLDS INTO THE AREA.
DAYTIME TEMPS SHD REMAIN ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE. WED TO
THU NGT DRY AND MILD WITH A RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AND UL TROF. FROPA FRI NGT
WITH SHOWERS FRI AFTN TO FRI NGT. POSSIBLE CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SAT TO MON UNDER THE TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH A FLATTENING RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE BKN CI CLOUDS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT AND DELAY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LOCAL CHECKLIST INDICATES
DENSE FOG STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KELM. FOR NOW WENT WITH IFR
FOG BEGINNING AT 06Z WITH CONDITIONS OCCASIONALLY NEAR AIRPORT
MINS BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND MORE HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT LEFT FOG OUT OF REMAINING TAFS EXCEPT FOR KBGM WHERE
MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z WHEN IT LIFTS OUT OF THE LOCAL
VALLEY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 282348
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
748 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR ANOTHER
DAY PROVIDING DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
STARTING TO GET SOME HI CLDS NOW AS THE RDG BRKS DOWN. FCSTD SNDGS
OVRNGT SHOW A FAIR AMT OF UPR LVL MOISTURE TNGT...SO WHILE VLY FOG
SEEMS RSNBL...DOESN/T LOOK LIKE WE/LL SEE THE KIND OF DEPTH AND
CVRG THAT WE HAD THE PAST FEW NGTS. OTRW...WITH THE INCRSD UPPER
LVL MOISTURE...TEMPS WILL EB A FEW DEGREES HIER THAN PRVS NGTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY DAY ON MON BUT WITH LWRG HGTS AND A BRK DOWN OF THE
SFC RDG...NAM SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHWRS OVER THE AREA.
OTR MODELS DRY AND EVEN THE NAM IS RATHER ISLTD SO WILL KEEP MON
PCPN FREE FOR NOW. UPR TROF CONTS TO DROP IN TWRD TUE AS THE SFC
FNT QUICKLY WASHES OUT. THIS SILL RESULT IN INCRSD INSTABILITY AND
A CHANCE OF SHWRS TUE. ONCE AGAIN...NAM SHOWING MORE INSTABILITY
WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES BUT EVEN SO...NOT ENUF TO JUSTIFY
TRW IN THE FCST ATTM. GFS AND EURO SHOWS LESS INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHWRS PSBL WED...ESP OVER THE EAST...AS THE UPR LOW
DRIFTS EAST AND A NARROW RDG OVER THE LAKES BLDS INTO THE AREA.
DAYTIME TEMPS SHD REMAIN ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE. WED TO
THU NGT DRY AND MILD WITH A RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AND UL TROF. FROPA FRI NGT
WITH SHOWERS FRI AFTN TO FRI NGT. POSSIBLE CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SAT TO MON UNDER THE TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH A FLATTENING RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE BKN CI CLOUDS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT AND DELAY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LOCAL CHECKLIST INDICATES
DENSE FOG STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KELM. FOR NOW WENT WITH IFR
FOG BEGINNING AT 06Z WITH CONDITIONS OCCASIONALLY NEAR AIRPORT
MINS BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND MORE HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT LEFT FOG OUT OF REMAINING TAFS EXCEPT FOR KBGM WHERE
MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z WHEN IT LIFTS OUT OF THE LOCAL
VALLEY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 281849
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
249 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR ANOTHER
DAY BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

STARTING TO GET SOME HI CLDS NOW AS THE RDG BRKS DOWN. FCSTD SNDGS
OVRNGT SHOW A FAIR AMT OF UPR LVL MOISTURE TNGT...SO WHILE VLY FOG
SEEMS RSNBL...DOESN/T LOOK LIKE WE/LL SEE THE KIND OF DEPTH AND
CVRG THAT WE HAD THE PAST FEW NGTS. OTRW...WITH THE INCRSD UPPER
LVL MOISTURE...TEMPS WILL EB A FEW DEGREES HIER THAN PRVS NGTS.



&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON MON BUT WITH LWRG HGTS AND A BRK DOWN OF THE
SFC RDG...NAM SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHWRS OVER THE AREA.
OTR MODELS DRY AND EVEN THE NAM IS RATHER ISLTD SO WILL KEEP MON
PCPN FREE FOR NOW. UPR TROF CONTS TO DROP IN TWRD TUE AS THE SFC
FNT QUICKLY WASHES OUT. THIS SILL RESULT IN INCRSD INSTABILITY AND
A CHANCE OF SHWRS TUE. ONCE AGAIN...NAM SHOWING MORE INSTABILITY
WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES BUT EVEN SO...NOT ENUF TO JUSTIFY
TRW IN THE FCST ATTM. GFS AND EURO SHOWS LESS INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHWRS PSBL WED...ESP OVER THE EAST...AS THE UPR LOW
DRIFTS EAST AND A NARROW RDG OVER THE LAKES BLDS INTO THE AREA.
DAYTIME TEMPS SHD REMAIN ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE. WED TO
THU NGT DRY AND MILD WITH A RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AND UL TROF. FROPA FRI NGT
WITH SHOWERS FRI AFTN TO FRI NGT. POSSIBLE CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SAT TO MON UNDER THE TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...

VFR MOST OF THE TIME WITH LATE NIGHT IFR/MVFR VALLEY FOG. LARGE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN CHARGE. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN NOW TO
REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL ONLY DELAY VALLEY FOG ONSET
BY AN HOUR OR TWO. LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL UNDER 15 KTS WITH
CROSSOVER TEMPS BEING MET. BEST CHC OF IFR FOG AT KELM AGAIN.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VLIFR CONDITIONS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS LOCKING
IN BETWEEN 8 AND 13Z. AT KELM FOG BY 6Z LIFTING AROUND 14Z. KBGM
COULD HAVE SOME MVFR VSBY FOG 8 TO 12Z. A LOW CHC OF IFR FOG
THERE. WITH REST OF SITES NOT HAVING ANY FOG WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
AND LEFT OUT FOR TONIGHT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AT 5 KTS THIS AFTN. CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON AFTN TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 281849
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
249 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR ANOTHER
DAY BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

STARTING TO GET SOME HI CLDS NOW AS THE RDG BRKS DOWN. FCSTD SNDGS
OVRNGT SHOW A FAIR AMT OF UPR LVL MOISTURE TNGT...SO WHILE VLY FOG
SEEMS RSNBL...DOESN/T LOOK LIKE WE/LL SEE THE KIND OF DEPTH AND
CVRG THAT WE HAD THE PAST FEW NGTS. OTRW...WITH THE INCRSD UPPER
LVL MOISTURE...TEMPS WILL EB A FEW DEGREES HIER THAN PRVS NGTS.



&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON MON BUT WITH LWRG HGTS AND A BRK DOWN OF THE
SFC RDG...NAM SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHWRS OVER THE AREA.
OTR MODELS DRY AND EVEN THE NAM IS RATHER ISLTD SO WILL KEEP MON
PCPN FREE FOR NOW. UPR TROF CONTS TO DROP IN TWRD TUE AS THE SFC
FNT QUICKLY WASHES OUT. THIS SILL RESULT IN INCRSD INSTABILITY AND
A CHANCE OF SHWRS TUE. ONCE AGAIN...NAM SHOWING MORE INSTABILITY
WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES BUT EVEN SO...NOT ENUF TO JUSTIFY
TRW IN THE FCST ATTM. GFS AND EURO SHOWS LESS INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHWRS PSBL WED...ESP OVER THE EAST...AS THE UPR LOW
DRIFTS EAST AND A NARROW RDG OVER THE LAKES BLDS INTO THE AREA.
DAYTIME TEMPS SHD REMAIN ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE. WED TO
THU NGT DRY AND MILD WITH A RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AND UL TROF. FROPA FRI NGT
WITH SHOWERS FRI AFTN TO FRI NGT. POSSIBLE CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SAT TO MON UNDER THE TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...

VFR MOST OF THE TIME WITH LATE NIGHT IFR/MVFR VALLEY FOG. LARGE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN CHARGE. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN NOW TO
REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL ONLY DELAY VALLEY FOG ONSET
BY AN HOUR OR TWO. LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL UNDER 15 KTS WITH
CROSSOVER TEMPS BEING MET. BEST CHC OF IFR FOG AT KELM AGAIN.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VLIFR CONDITIONS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS LOCKING
IN BETWEEN 8 AND 13Z. AT KELM FOG BY 6Z LIFTING AROUND 14Z. KBGM
COULD HAVE SOME MVFR VSBY FOG 8 TO 12Z. A LOW CHC OF IFR FOG
THERE. WITH REST OF SITES NOT HAVING ANY FOG WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
AND LEFT OUT FOR TONIGHT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AT 5 KTS THIS AFTN. CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON AFTN TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 281742
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY KEEPING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM EDT UPDATE...
FOG HAVE BECOME QUITE DENSE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.  EXPECT TO LIFT BETWEEN
9AM AND 10AM. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS... BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW.

220 AM EDT UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO BE
SLIGHTLY MORE DENSE THAN YESTERDAY AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT TO LIFT AROUND 9 AM EDT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DAY WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE UPPR 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
WHEN THE DOMINANT UPPR LVL RIDGE THAT HAVE BEEN OVER OUR AREA FOR
DAYS NOW WILL START TO SHIFT EAST. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES EAST IT
WILL DRAG MOISTURE ALOFT INTO PORTIONS OF NY AND PA.

MID LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC REMAINS IN
CONTROL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
220 AM EDT UPDATE...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE UPPR RIDGE IS
TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE START OF A RETURN MOISTURE
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE
HUNG UP IN THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR
ALOFT... LIFT DUE TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...
AND MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION... LIGHT DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER NY AND PA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY GENERATE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. DECIDED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ATTM DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN BE ADVECTED INTO
THE AREA PRIOR TO THE ADVANCING WAVE.

TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE. WED TO
THU NGT DRY AND MILD WITH A RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AND UL TROF. FROPA FRI NGT
WITH SHOWERS FRI AFTN TO FRI NGT. POSSIBLE CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SAT TO MON UNDER THE TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...

VFR MOST OF THE TIME WITH LATE NIGHT IFR/MVFR VALLEY FOG. LARGE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN CHARGE. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN NOW TO
REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL ONLY DELAY VALLEY FOG ONSET
BY AN HOUR OR TWO. LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL UNDER 15 KTS WITH
CROSSOVER TEMPS BEING MET. BEST CHC OF IFR FOG AT KELM AGAIN.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VLIFR CONDITIONS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS LOCKING
IN BETWEEN 8 AND 13Z. AT KELM FOG BY 6Z LIFTING AROUND 14Z. KBGM
COULD HAVE SOME MVFR VSBY FOG 8 TO 12Z. A LOW CHC OF IFR FOG
THERE. WITH REST OF SITES NOT HAVING ANY FOG WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
AND LEFT OUT FOR TONIGHT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AT 5 KTS THIS AFTN. CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON AFTN TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 281742
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY KEEPING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM EDT UPDATE...
FOG HAVE BECOME QUITE DENSE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.  EXPECT TO LIFT BETWEEN
9AM AND 10AM. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS... BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW.

220 AM EDT UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO BE
SLIGHTLY MORE DENSE THAN YESTERDAY AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT TO LIFT AROUND 9 AM EDT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DAY WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE UPPR 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
WHEN THE DOMINANT UPPR LVL RIDGE THAT HAVE BEEN OVER OUR AREA FOR
DAYS NOW WILL START TO SHIFT EAST. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES EAST IT
WILL DRAG MOISTURE ALOFT INTO PORTIONS OF NY AND PA.

MID LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC REMAINS IN
CONTROL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
220 AM EDT UPDATE...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE UPPR RIDGE IS
TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE START OF A RETURN MOISTURE
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE
HUNG UP IN THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR
ALOFT... LIFT DUE TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...
AND MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION... LIGHT DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER NY AND PA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY GENERATE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. DECIDED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ATTM DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN BE ADVECTED INTO
THE AREA PRIOR TO THE ADVANCING WAVE.

TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. LITTLE CHANGE. WED TO
THU NGT DRY AND MILD WITH A RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AND UL TROF. FROPA FRI NGT
WITH SHOWERS FRI AFTN TO FRI NGT. POSSIBLE CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SAT TO MON UNDER THE TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...

VFR MOST OF THE TIME WITH LATE NIGHT IFR/MVFR VALLEY FOG. LARGE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN CHARGE. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN NOW TO
REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL ONLY DELAY VALLEY FOG ONSET
BY AN HOUR OR TWO. LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL UNDER 15 KTS WITH
CROSSOVER TEMPS BEING MET. BEST CHC OF IFR FOG AT KELM AGAIN.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VLIFR CONDITIONS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS LOCKING
IN BETWEEN 8 AND 13Z. AT KELM FOG BY 6Z LIFTING AROUND 14Z. KBGM
COULD HAVE SOME MVFR VSBY FOG 8 TO 12Z. A LOW CHC OF IFR FOG
THERE. WITH REST OF SITES NOT HAVING ANY FOG WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
AND LEFT OUT FOR TONIGHT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AT 5 KTS THIS AFTN. CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON AFTN TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 281054
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
654 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY KEEPING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM EDT UPDATE...
FOG HAVE BECOME QUITE DENSE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.  EXPECT TO LIFT BETWEEN
9AM AND 10AM. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS... BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW.

220 AM EDT UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO BE
SLIGHTLY MORE DENSE THAN YESTERDAY AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT TO LIFT AROUND 9 AM EDT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DAY WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE UPPR 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
WHEN THE DOMINANT UPPR LVL RIDGE THAT HAVE BEEN OVER OUR AREA FOR
DAYS NOW WILL START TO SHIFT EAST. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES EAST IT
WILL DRAG MOISTURE ALOFT INTO PORTIONS OF NY AND PA.

MID LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC REMAINS IN
CONTROL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM EDT UPDATE...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE UPPR RIDGE IS
TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE START OF A RETURN MOISTURE
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE
HUNG UP IN THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR
ALOFT... LIFT DUE TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...
AND MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION... LIGHT DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER NY AND PA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY GENERATE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. DECIDED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ATTM DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN BE ADVECTED INTO
THE AREA PRIOR TO THE ADVANCING WAVE.

TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. WAVE WILL BECOME AN
UPPER LOW WHILE EXITING TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY...A DRY RIDGE WILL BE
TAKING OVER AT THE SURFACE WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...SO ONLY SLIGHT
POPS APPEAR REASONABLE WEDNESDAY...THEN DRY THURSDAY- EARLY
FRIDAY.

THOUGH TIMING FROM FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY IS PLUS-OR-
MINUS 12 HOURS DEPENDING ON MODEL AND RUN...CONFIDENCE IN THE
LARGE SCALE WITH VERY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OR EVEN DEEP CUTOFF LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. IS GOOD. THUS I WENT ALONG WITH
WPC UPGRADE IN SHOWER CHANCES BY THEN INTO 40-50 PCT RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN. AT THE START UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER EXTREME SE CANADA. THE PROBLEM IS A COASTAL LOW MAY SPREAD
SHOWERS INTO THE SE ZONES. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW CLOSE THIS
COMES. CAPPED POPS AT SCHC TUE NGT TO WED NGT. BY THU COASTAL LOW
FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT DRY AGAIN. NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A BROAD
AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS.
SHOWERS COME IN WITH A STRONG FRONT FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN CHARGE WITH CLEAR SKY...AND AS SUCH
VALLEY FOG HAS AGAIN IMPACTED THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AIRPORT
MINS TO STILL BE EXPERIENCED AT KELM THROUGH 13Z FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVEMENT TO 14Z. KBGM WILL HAVE BRIEF STINT AT IFR VIS AS FOG
LIFTS AND MIXES OUT 12Z-13Z...AND KRME BRIEFLY A LOW CIG. OTHER
THAN THESE FOG CONCERNS...VFR THROUGH THE DAY...JUST SOME HIGH
THIN CIRRUS COMING IN AT 20-25 KFT AGL ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. WNW WINDS AROUND OR LESS THAN 5 KTS DURING THE
DAY...OTHERWISE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM. FOG WILL STILL TRY TO FORM
AT KELM TONIGHT...BUT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS 15-20 KFT AGL PROBABLY
NOT AS THICK AS RECENT NIGHTS...AND ALSO PROBABLY NOT IMPACTING
ANY OTHER TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY
KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 281054
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
654 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY KEEPING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM EDT UPDATE...
FOG HAVE BECOME QUITE DENSE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.  EXPECT TO LIFT BETWEEN
9AM AND 10AM. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS... BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW.

220 AM EDT UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO BE
SLIGHTLY MORE DENSE THAN YESTERDAY AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT TO LIFT AROUND 9 AM EDT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DAY WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE UPPR 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
WHEN THE DOMINANT UPPR LVL RIDGE THAT HAVE BEEN OVER OUR AREA FOR
DAYS NOW WILL START TO SHIFT EAST. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES EAST IT
WILL DRAG MOISTURE ALOFT INTO PORTIONS OF NY AND PA.

MID LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC REMAINS IN
CONTROL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM EDT UPDATE...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE UPPR RIDGE IS
TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE START OF A RETURN MOISTURE
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE
HUNG UP IN THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR
ALOFT... LIFT DUE TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...
AND MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION... LIGHT DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER NY AND PA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY GENERATE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. DECIDED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ATTM DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN BE ADVECTED INTO
THE AREA PRIOR TO THE ADVANCING WAVE.

TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. WAVE WILL BECOME AN
UPPER LOW WHILE EXITING TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY...A DRY RIDGE WILL BE
TAKING OVER AT THE SURFACE WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...SO ONLY SLIGHT
POPS APPEAR REASONABLE WEDNESDAY...THEN DRY THURSDAY- EARLY
FRIDAY.

THOUGH TIMING FROM FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY IS PLUS-OR-
MINUS 12 HOURS DEPENDING ON MODEL AND RUN...CONFIDENCE IN THE
LARGE SCALE WITH VERY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OR EVEN DEEP CUTOFF LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. IS GOOD. THUS I WENT ALONG WITH
WPC UPGRADE IN SHOWER CHANCES BY THEN INTO 40-50 PCT RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN. AT THE START UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER EXTREME SE CANADA. THE PROBLEM IS A COASTAL LOW MAY SPREAD
SHOWERS INTO THE SE ZONES. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW CLOSE THIS
COMES. CAPPED POPS AT SCHC TUE NGT TO WED NGT. BY THU COASTAL LOW
FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT DRY AGAIN. NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A BROAD
AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS.
SHOWERS COME IN WITH A STRONG FRONT FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN CHARGE WITH CLEAR SKY...AND AS SUCH
VALLEY FOG HAS AGAIN IMPACTED THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AIRPORT
MINS TO STILL BE EXPERIENCED AT KELM THROUGH 13Z FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVEMENT TO 14Z. KBGM WILL HAVE BRIEF STINT AT IFR VIS AS FOG
LIFTS AND MIXES OUT 12Z-13Z...AND KRME BRIEFLY A LOW CIG. OTHER
THAN THESE FOG CONCERNS...VFR THROUGH THE DAY...JUST SOME HIGH
THIN CIRRUS COMING IN AT 20-25 KFT AGL ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. WNW WINDS AROUND OR LESS THAN 5 KTS DURING THE
DAY...OTHERWISE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM. FOG WILL STILL TRY TO FORM
AT KELM TONIGHT...BUT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS 15-20 KFT AGL PROBABLY
NOT AS THICK AS RECENT NIGHTS...AND ALSO PROBABLY NOT IMPACTING
ANY OTHER TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY
KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 281008
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
608 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY KEEPING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM EDT UPDATE...
FOG HAVE BECOME QUITE DENSE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.  EXPECT TO LIFT BETWEEN
9AM AND 10AM. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS... BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW.

220 AM EDT UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO BE
SLIGHTLY MORE DENSE THAN YESTERDAY AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT TO LIFT AROUND 9 AM EDT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DAY WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE UPPR 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
WHEN THE DOMINANT UPPR LVL RIDGE THAT HAVE BEEN OVER OUR AREA FOR
DAYS NOW WILL START TO SHIFT EAST. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES EAST IT
WILL DRAG MOISTURE ALOFT INTO PORTIONS OF NY AND PA.

MID LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC REMAINS IN
CONTROL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM EDT UPDATE...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE UPPR RIDGE IS
TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE START OF A RETURN MOISTURE
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE
HUNG UP IN THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR
ALOFT... LIFT DUE TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...
AND MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION... LIGHT DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER NY AND PA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY GENERATE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. DECIDED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ATTM DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN BE ADVECTED INTO
THE AREA PRIOR TO THE ADVANCING WAVE.

TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. WAVE WILL BECOME AN
UPPER LOW WHILE EXITING TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY...A DRY RIDGE WILL BE
TAKING OVER AT THE SURFACE WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...SO ONLY SLIGHT
POPS APPEAR REASONABLE WEDNESDAY...THEN DRY THURSDAY- EARLY
FRIDAY.

THOUGH TIMING FROM FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY IS PLUS-OR-
MINUS 12 HOURS DEPENDING ON MODEL AND RUN...CONFIDENCE IN THE
LARGE SCALE WITH VERY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OR EVEN DEEP CUTOFF LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. IS GOOD. THUS I WENT ALONG WITH
WPC UPGRADE IN SHOWER CHANCES BY THEN INTO 40-50 PCT RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN. AT THE START UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER EXTREME SE CANADA. THE PROBLEM IS A COASTAL LOW MAY SPREAD
SHOWERS INTO THE SE ZONES. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW CLOSE THIS
COMES. CAPPED POPS AT SCHC TUE NGT TO WED NGT. BY THU COASTAL LOW
FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT DRY AGAIN. NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A BROAD
AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS.
SHOWERS COME IN WITH A STRONG FRONT FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE TERMINALS WITH AIRMASS ABOUT
THE SAME AS PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THEREFORE SIMILAR FOG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AT KRME-KELM, CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORT MINS
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH 13Z-14Z /ALREADY OCCURRING PRIOR TO 06Z AT
KELM/. MVFR VIS AT KITH OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL VIS BELOW ALT
MINS BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. FOG SHOULD STAY BELOW LEVEL OF KAVP...BUT
AS WITH 24 HRS AGO COULD MAKE A RUN AT KBGM TOWARDS DAWN GIVEN
DEWPOINTS NOW ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING
FOG...VFR WITH CLEAR SKY YIELDING TO SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS 20-25
KFT AGL AFTERNOON-EVENING. WNW WINDS AROUND OR LESS THAN 5 KTS
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP









000
FXUS61 KBGM 280802
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
402 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY KEEPING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
220 AM EDT UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO BE
SLIGHTLY MORE DENSE THAN YESTERDAY AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT TO LIFT AROUND 9 AM EDT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DAY WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE UPPR 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
WHEN THE DOMINANT UPPR LVL RIDGE THAT HAVE BEEN OVER OUR AREA FOR
DAYS NOW WILL START TO SHIFT EAST. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES EAST IT
WILL DRAG MOISTURE ALOFT INTO PORTIONS OF NY AND PA.

MID LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC REMAINS IN
CONTROL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM EDT UPDATE...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE UPPR RIDGE IS
TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE START OF A RETURN MOISTURE
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE
HUNG UP IN THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR
ALOFT... LIFT DUE TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...
AND MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION... LIGHT DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER NY AND PA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY GENERATE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. DECIDED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ATTM DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN BE ADVECTED INTO
THE AREA PRIOR TO THE ADVANCING WAVE.

TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. WAVE WILL BECOME AN
UPPER LOW WHILE EXITING TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY...A DRY RIDGE WILL BE
TAKING OVER AT THE SURFACE WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...SO ONLY SLIGHT
POPS APPEAR REASONABLE WEDNESDAY...THEN DRY THURSDAY- EARLY
FRIDAY.

THOUGH TIMING FROM FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY IS PLUS-OR-
MINUS 12 HOURS DEPENDING ON MODEL AND RUN...CONFIDENCE IN THE
LARGE SCALE WITH VERY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OR EVEN DEEP CUTOFF LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. IS GOOD. THUS I WENT ALONG WITH
WPC UPGRADE IN SHOWER CHANCES BY THEN INTO 40-50 PCT RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN. AT THE START UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER EXTREME SE CANADA. THE PROBLEM IS A COASTAL LOW MAY SPREAD
SHOWERS INTO THE SE ZONES. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW CLOSE THIS
COMES. CAPPED POPS AT SCHC TUE NGT TO WED NGT. BY THU COASTAL LOW
FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT DRY AGAIN. NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A BROAD
AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS.
SHOWERS COME IN WITH A STRONG FRONT FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE TERMINALS WITH AIRMASS ABOUT
THE SAME AS PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THEREFORE SIMILAR FOG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AT KRME-KELM, CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORT MINS
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH 13Z-14Z /ALREADY OCCURRING PRIOR TO 06Z AT
KELM/. MVFR VIS AT KITH OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL VIS BELOW ALT
MINS BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. FOG SHOULD STAY BELOW LEVEL OF KAVP...BUT
AS WITH 24 HRS AGO COULD MAKE A RUN AT KBGM TOWARDS DAWN GIVEN
DEWPOINTS NOW ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING
FOG...VFR WITH CLEAR SKY YIELDING TO SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS 20-25
KFT AGL AFTERNOON-EVENING. WNW WINDS AROUND OR LESS THAN 5 KTS
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 280802
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
402 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY KEEPING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
220 AM EDT UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO BE
SLIGHTLY MORE DENSE THAN YESTERDAY AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT TO LIFT AROUND 9 AM EDT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DAY WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE UPPR 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
WHEN THE DOMINANT UPPR LVL RIDGE THAT HAVE BEEN OVER OUR AREA FOR
DAYS NOW WILL START TO SHIFT EAST. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES EAST IT
WILL DRAG MOISTURE ALOFT INTO PORTIONS OF NY AND PA.

MID LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC REMAINS IN
CONTROL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM EDT UPDATE...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE UPPR RIDGE IS
TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE START OF A RETURN MOISTURE
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE
HUNG UP IN THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR
ALOFT... LIFT DUE TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...
AND MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION... LIGHT DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER NY AND PA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY GENERATE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. DECIDED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ATTM DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN BE ADVECTED INTO
THE AREA PRIOR TO THE ADVANCING WAVE.

TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. WAVE WILL BECOME AN
UPPER LOW WHILE EXITING TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY...A DRY RIDGE WILL BE
TAKING OVER AT THE SURFACE WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...SO ONLY SLIGHT
POPS APPEAR REASONABLE WEDNESDAY...THEN DRY THURSDAY- EARLY
FRIDAY.

THOUGH TIMING FROM FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY IS PLUS-OR-
MINUS 12 HOURS DEPENDING ON MODEL AND RUN...CONFIDENCE IN THE
LARGE SCALE WITH VERY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OR EVEN DEEP CUTOFF LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. IS GOOD. THUS I WENT ALONG WITH
WPC UPGRADE IN SHOWER CHANCES BY THEN INTO 40-50 PCT RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN. AT THE START UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER EXTREME SE CANADA. THE PROBLEM IS A COASTAL LOW MAY SPREAD
SHOWERS INTO THE SE ZONES. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW CLOSE THIS
COMES. CAPPED POPS AT SCHC TUE NGT TO WED NGT. BY THU COASTAL LOW
FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT DRY AGAIN. NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A BROAD
AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS.
SHOWERS COME IN WITH A STRONG FRONT FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE TERMINALS WITH AIRMASS ABOUT
THE SAME AS PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THEREFORE SIMILAR FOG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AT KRME-KELM, CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORT MINS
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH 13Z-14Z /ALREADY OCCURRING PRIOR TO 06Z AT
KELM/. MVFR VIS AT KITH OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL VIS BELOW ALT
MINS BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. FOG SHOULD STAY BELOW LEVEL OF KAVP...BUT
AS WITH 24 HRS AGO COULD MAKE A RUN AT KBGM TOWARDS DAWN GIVEN
DEWPOINTS NOW ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING
FOG...VFR WITH CLEAR SKY YIELDING TO SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS 20-25
KFT AGL AFTERNOON-EVENING. WNW WINDS AROUND OR LESS THAN 5 KTS
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 280800
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
400 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY KEEPING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
220 AM EDT UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO BE
SLIGHTLY MORE DENSE THAN YESTERDAY AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT TO LIFT AROUND 9 AM EDT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DAY WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE UPPR 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
WHEN THE DOMINANT UPPR LVL RIDGE THAT HAVE BEEN OVER OUR AREA FOR
DAYS NOW WILL START TO SHIFT EAST. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES EAST IT
WILL DRAG MOISTURE ALOFT INTO PORTIONS OF NY AND PA.

MID LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC REMAINS IN
CONTROL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM EDT UPDATE...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE UPPR RIDGE IS
TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE START OF A RETURN MOISTURE
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE
HUNG UP IN THE POCONOS AND ADIRONDACKS. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
DRY AIR ALOFT... LIFT DUE TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY... AND MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION... LIGHT
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER NY AND PA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY GENERATE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. DECIDED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ATTM DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN BE ADVECTED INTO
THE AREA PRIOR TO THE ADVANCING WAVE.

TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
350 AM EDT UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. WAVE WILL BECOME AN
UPPER LOW WHILE EXITING TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY...A DRY RIDGE WILL BE
TAKING OVER AT THE SURFACE WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...SO ONLY SLIGHT
POPS APPEAR REASONABLE WEDNESDAY...THEN DRY THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY.

THOUGH TIMING FROM FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY IS PLUS-OR-
MINUS 12 HOURS DEPENDING ON MODEL AND RUN...CONFIDENCE IN THE
LARGE SCALE WITH VERY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OR EVEN DEEP CUTOFF LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. IS GOOD. THUS I WENT ALONG WITH
WPC UPGRADE IN SHOWER CHANCES BY THEN INTO 40-50 PCT RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN. AT THE START UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER EXTREME SE CANADA. THE PROBLEM IS A COASTAL LOW MAY SPREAD
SHOWERS INTO THE SE ZONES. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW CLOSE THIS
COMES. CAPPED POPS AT SCHC TUE NGT TO WED NGT. BY THU COASTAL LOW
FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT DRY AGAIN. NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A BROAD
AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS.
SHOWERS COME IN WITH A STRONG FRONT FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE TERMINALS WITH AIRMASS ABOUT
THE SAME AS PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THEREFORE SIMILAR FOG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AT KRME-KELM, CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORT MINS
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH 13Z-14Z /ALREADY OCCURRING PRIOR TO 06Z AT
KELM/. MVFR VIS AT KITH OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL VIS BELOW ALT
MINS BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. FOG SHOULD STAY BELOW LEVEL OF KAVP...BUT
AS WITH 24 HRS AGO COULD MAKE A RUN AT KBGM TOWARDS DAWN GIVEN
DEWPOINTS NOW ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING
FOG...VFR WITH CLEAR SKY YIELDING TO SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS 20-25
KFT AGL AFTERNOON-EVENING. WNW WINDS AROUND OR LESS THAN 5 KTS
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 280627
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
227 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY KEEPING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
220 AM EDT UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO BE
SLIGHTLY MORE DENSE THAN YESTERDAY AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT TO LIFT AROUND 9 AM EDT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DAY WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE UPPR 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
WHEN THE DOMINANT UPPR LVL RIDGE THAT HAVE BEEN OVER OUR AREA FOR
DAYS NOW WILL START TO SHIFT EAST. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES EAST IT
WILL DRAG MOISTURE ALOFT INTO PORTIONS OF NY AND PA.

MID LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC REMAINS IN
CONTROL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM EDT UPDATE...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE UPPR RIDGE IS
TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE START OF A RETURN MOISTURE
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE
HUNG UP IN THE POCONOS AND ADIRONDACKS. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
DRY AIR ALOFT... LIFT DUE TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY... AND MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION... LIGHT
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER NY AND PA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY GENERATE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. DECIDED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ATTM DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN BE ADVECTED INTO
THE AREA PRIOR TO THE ADVANCING WAVE.

TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN. AT THE START UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER EXTREME SE CANADA. THE PROBLEM IS A COASTAL LOW MAY SPREAD
SHOWERS INTO THE SE ZONES. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW CLOSE THIS
COMES. CAPPED POPS AT SCHC TUE NGT TO WED NGT. BY THU COASTAL LOW
FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT DRY AGAIN. NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A
BROAD AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS. SHOWERS COME IN WITH A STRONG FRONT FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE TERMINALS WITH AIRMASS ABOUT
THE SAME AS PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THEREFORE SIMILAR FOG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AT KRME-KELM, CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORT MINS
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH 13Z-14Z /ALREADY OCCURRING PRIOR TO 06Z AT
KELM/. MVFR VIS AT KITH OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL VIS BELOW ALT
MINS BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. FOG SHOULD STAY BELOW LEVEL OF KAVP...BUT
AS WITH 24 HRS AGO COULD MAKE A RUN AT KBGM TOWARDS DAWN GIVEN
DEWPOINTS NOW ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING
FOG...VFR WITH CLEAR SKY YIELDING TO SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS 20-25
KFT AGL AFTERNOON-EVENING. WNW WINDS AROUND OR LESS THAN 5 KTS
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 280627
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
227 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY KEEPING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
220 AM EDT UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO BE
SLIGHTLY MORE DENSE THAN YESTERDAY AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT TO LIFT AROUND 9 AM EDT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DAY WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE UPPR 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
WHEN THE DOMINANT UPPR LVL RIDGE THAT HAVE BEEN OVER OUR AREA FOR
DAYS NOW WILL START TO SHIFT EAST. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES EAST IT
WILL DRAG MOISTURE ALOFT INTO PORTIONS OF NY AND PA.

MID LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC REMAINS IN
CONTROL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM EDT UPDATE...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE UPPR RIDGE IS
TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE START OF A RETURN MOISTURE
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE
HUNG UP IN THE POCONOS AND ADIRONDACKS. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
DRY AIR ALOFT... LIFT DUE TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY... AND MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION... LIGHT
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER NY AND PA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY GENERATE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. DECIDED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN ATTM DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN BE ADVECTED INTO
THE AREA PRIOR TO THE ADVANCING WAVE.

TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN. AT THE START UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER EXTREME SE CANADA. THE PROBLEM IS A COASTAL LOW MAY SPREAD
SHOWERS INTO THE SE ZONES. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW CLOSE THIS
COMES. CAPPED POPS AT SCHC TUE NGT TO WED NGT. BY THU COASTAL LOW
FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT DRY AGAIN. NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A
BROAD AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS. SHOWERS COME IN WITH A STRONG FRONT FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE TERMINALS WITH AIRMASS ABOUT
THE SAME AS PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THEREFORE SIMILAR FOG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AT KRME-KELM, CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORT MINS
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH 13Z-14Z /ALREADY OCCURRING PRIOR TO 06Z AT
KELM/. MVFR VIS AT KITH OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL VIS BELOW ALT
MINS BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. FOG SHOULD STAY BELOW LEVEL OF KAVP...BUT
AS WITH 24 HRS AGO COULD MAKE A RUN AT KBGM TOWARDS DAWN GIVEN
DEWPOINTS NOW ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING
FOG...VFR WITH CLEAR SKY YIELDING TO SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS 20-25
KFT AGL AFTERNOON-EVENING. WNW WINDS AROUND OR LESS THAN 5 KTS
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP









000
FXUS61 KBGM 280551
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
151 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER BRINGING WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
710 PM UPDATE...
1024MB HIGH FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVRHD. TEMPS AS OF 23Z RMN IN THE
60S AND WITH DWPTS IN THE U50S EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE VLY
FOG TO DVLP EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT. JUST TWEAKS NEEDED TO HRLY
T/TD GRIDS WITH NO CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

HIPRES REMAINS OVHD WITH CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS. FOG SHD COME
EARLY AND OFTEN ONCE AGAIN...FILLING THE RVR VLYS. TNGT...WINDS
LGTR HIER INTO THE SNDG SO DEPTH OF THE FOG COULD BE ENUF TO EVEN
CVR SOME OF THE HILLTOPS OF THE SRN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI AND UPR RDG HOLDS THRU SUNDAY...THEN BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST ON
MON. A CPL OF SHRT WV APRCH...ONE FROM THE SE SLIDING UP THE CST
TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING COLD FNT
DROPPING THRU THE ERN LAKES. CSTL LOW HAS MUCH MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT IS LIKELY TO MISS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
NRN SYSTEM WILL DROP THRU ON TUE BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...CHANCE
POPS WILL CVR THE LGT SHWRS THAT DVLP.

TEMPS WILL CONT ABV NRML...ESP DURING THE DAY WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE
AND LGT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN. AT THE START UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER EXTREME SE CANADA. THE PROBLEM IS A COASTAL LOW MAY SPREAD
SHOWERS INTO THE SE ZONES. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW CLOSE THIS
COMES. CAPPED POPS AT SCHC TUE NGT TO WED NGT. BY THU COASTAL LOW
FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT DRY AGAIN. NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A
BROAD AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS. SHOWERS COME IN WITH A STRONG FRONT FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE TERMINALS WITH AIRMASS ABOUT
THE SAME AS PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THEREFORE SIMILAR FOG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AT KRME-KELM, CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORT MINS
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH 13Z-14Z /ALREADY OCCURRING PRIOR TO 06Z AT
KELM/. MVFR VIS AT KITH OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL VIS BELOW ALT
MINS BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. FOG SHOULD STAY BELOW LEVEL OF KAVP...BUT
AS WITH 24 HRS AGO COULD MAKE A RUN AT KBGM TOWARDS DAWN GIVEN
DEWPOINTS NOW ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING
FOG...VFR WITH CLEAR SKY YIELDING TO SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS 20-25
KFT AGL AFTERNOON-EVENING. WNW WINDS AROUND OR LESS THAN 5 KTS
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/PVN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 280551
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
151 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER BRINGING WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
710 PM UPDATE...
1024MB HIGH FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVRHD. TEMPS AS OF 23Z RMN IN THE
60S AND WITH DWPTS IN THE U50S EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE VLY
FOG TO DVLP EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT. JUST TWEAKS NEEDED TO HRLY
T/TD GRIDS WITH NO CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

HIPRES REMAINS OVHD WITH CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS. FOG SHD COME
EARLY AND OFTEN ONCE AGAIN...FILLING THE RVR VLYS. TNGT...WINDS
LGTR HIER INTO THE SNDG SO DEPTH OF THE FOG COULD BE ENUF TO EVEN
CVR SOME OF THE HILLTOPS OF THE SRN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI AND UPR RDG HOLDS THRU SUNDAY...THEN BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST ON
MON. A CPL OF SHRT WV APRCH...ONE FROM THE SE SLIDING UP THE CST
TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING COLD FNT
DROPPING THRU THE ERN LAKES. CSTL LOW HAS MUCH MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT IS LIKELY TO MISS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
NRN SYSTEM WILL DROP THRU ON TUE BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...CHANCE
POPS WILL CVR THE LGT SHWRS THAT DVLP.

TEMPS WILL CONT ABV NRML...ESP DURING THE DAY WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE
AND LGT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN. AT THE START UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER EXTREME SE CANADA. THE PROBLEM IS A COASTAL LOW MAY SPREAD
SHOWERS INTO THE SE ZONES. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW CLOSE THIS
COMES. CAPPED POPS AT SCHC TUE NGT TO WED NGT. BY THU COASTAL LOW
FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT DRY AGAIN. NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A
BROAD AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS. SHOWERS COME IN WITH A STRONG FRONT FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE TERMINALS WITH AIRMASS ABOUT
THE SAME AS PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THEREFORE SIMILAR FOG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AT KRME-KELM, CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORT MINS
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH 13Z-14Z /ALREADY OCCURRING PRIOR TO 06Z AT
KELM/. MVFR VIS AT KITH OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL VIS BELOW ALT
MINS BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. FOG SHOULD STAY BELOW LEVEL OF KAVP...BUT
AS WITH 24 HRS AGO COULD MAKE A RUN AT KBGM TOWARDS DAWN GIVEN
DEWPOINTS NOW ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING
FOG...VFR WITH CLEAR SKY YIELDING TO SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS 20-25
KFT AGL AFTERNOON-EVENING. WNW WINDS AROUND OR LESS THAN 5 KTS
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/PVN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP







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