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000
FXUS61 KBGM 290632
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
232 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA TODAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 1230 AND 1330Z THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR A SUNNY,
CLEAR WEATHER DAY.

STILL COOL IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO 850MB SO HAVE RESTRICTED
MAX TEMPS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S DESPITE NEAR FULL SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO NY/PA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR
WESTERN FA LATE SATURDAY.

FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT, SO
HAVE ORIENTED POPS FROM NE TO SW. STICKING TO MAINLY CHC/SCT
COVERAGE AS INSTABILITY AND FORCING ARE LACKING. EXPECT FAR SERN
FA TO REMAIN DRY.

SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AHEAD OF
FRONTAL PUSH. NOT A TON OF INSTABILITY, BUT ENOUGH TO PUSH THE
POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
SUGGESTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZATION (AROUND 30+ KTS) SO WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...
VRY LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED TO LONG TERM THIS MORNING. FROPA LOOKS
TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO GO LKLY
POPS AT THIS TIME, BUT WL LIKELY NEED TO BE BOOSTED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO EVENT. FOLLOWING FROPA EXPECT TEMPS TO SETTLE OUT NR
SEASONAL VALUES AFT WARM START TO THE WEEK. AFTR CDFNT MVS THRU
EXPECT FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW THRU END OF EXTNDD WITH 590DM RIDGE ALONG
GULF COAST AND TROFFING IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SCT-BKN LAKE CLOUDS PLAGUING NY TERMINALS AT THIS TIME WITH
EXCEPTION OF ELM AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY EAST OF AIRPORT. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 08Z WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CIRRUS
SKIRTING OVERHEAD NEXT 24 HOURS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR VSBYS
AT ITH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS AT ELM STARTING
AT 08Z. NOT SURE WHAT AFFECT UPPER CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND MAY PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM
MAXING OUT BUT THINK THE POTENTIAL IS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED THUS
HAVE LEFT IT IN AT THIS TIME.

LGT/VRB WINDS NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT
SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 290618
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
218 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA TODAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 1230 AND 1330Z THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR A SUNNY,
CLEAR WEATHER DAY.

STILL COOL IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO 850MB SO HAVE RESTRICTED
MAX TEMPS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S DESPITE NEAR FULL SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO NY/PA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR
WESTERN FA LATE SATURDAY.

FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT, SO
HAVE ORIENTED POPS FROM NE TO SW. STICKING TO MAINLY CHC/SCT
COVERAGE AS INSTABILITY AND FORCING ARE LACKING. EXPECT FAR SERN
FA TO REMAIN DRY.

SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AHEAD OF
FRONTAL PUSH. NOT A TON OF INSTABILITY, BUT ENOUGH TO PUSH THE
POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
SUGGESTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZATION (AROUND 30+ KTS) SO WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
AREA WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST SOMEWHAT MOIST/MILD FLOW WITH CHC POPS
FOR CONVECTION. ON TUESDAY A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOLLOWED BY A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGH
CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD. TEMPS WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL UNTIL FROPA ON TUESDAY WHEN SEASONAL TEMPS RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SCT-BKN LAKE CLOUDS PLAGUING NY TERMINALS AT THIS TIME WITH
EXCEPTION OF ELM AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY EAST OF AIRPORT. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 08Z WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CIRRUS
SKIRTING OVERHEAD NEXT 24 HOURS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR VSBYS
AT ITH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS AT ELM STARTING
AT 08Z. NOT SURE WHAT AFFECT UPPER CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND MAY PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM
MAXING OUT BUT THINK THE POTENTIAL IS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED THUS
HAVE LEFT IT IN AT THIS TIME.

LGT/VRB WINDS NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT
SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...PVN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 290529
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
129 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY ON SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY EVENING, AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST UPDATES THIS EVENING OTHER
THAN TO ADJUST FOR SOME PASSING CLOUDINESS SLIDING SOUTH...AND
ALSO SOME HIGHER CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. COLD ADVECTION ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TO BE OFFSET BY DRY
AIRMASS...HOWEVER DID BUMP UP SOME SKY COVER PERCENTAGES TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME LATE NIGHT LAKE CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES BOUNCING
AROUND THIS EVENING AS THEY DROP RAPIDLY UNDER FAIR RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHILE
SCATTERED AREAS OF CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK ACROSS THE EAST.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS STEADY OUT FOR A CHILLY NIGHT IN THE MID-UPR 40S
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

300 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION COMBINED
WITH SUNSHINE HAS PRODUCED AMPLE STRATOCU CLOUDS TODAY. THESE
CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF BREAKING UP A BIT, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AS WE HEAD TOWARD
SUNSET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL, A CLEAR SKY/CALM CONDITION
NIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME CHILLY AIR! MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 40S, WITH NEAR 40 IN OUR NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. WITH TEMPS
FALLING SO LOW TONIGHT, RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY WILL BRING US A LOT MORE
SUNSHINE. JUST LOOK AT DETROIT, MI NOW FOR OUR WEATHER TOMORROW.
HIGHS WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SATURDAY LOOKING MOSTLY DRY FOR EVERYONE,
AND SUNDAY BEING THE BETTER BET FOR RAIN. I CONTINUED THE LOWERING TREND
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS AND ONLY SHOW A 20% CHANCE FOR STORMS (FINGER
LAKES) THROUGH SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO THE SLOWER TIMING.

WHILE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THAT SUNDAY IS THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, THE NAM, EURO, AND
GFS ALL SHOW MLCAPES ABOVE 500 J/KG, AND IN SOME CASES ABOVE
1,000. SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE LIMITED GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS POINT A BIT TOO EARLY TO TELL FOR SURE, WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE IN 0-6 BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 25
(MINIMAL) AND 40 KTS (MODERATE). FOR NOW OUR CURRENT 50%-60%
CHANCE FOR STORMS DURING THE DAY LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
AREA WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST SOMEWHAT MOIST/MILD FLOW WITH CHC POPS
FOR CONVECTION. ON TUESDAY A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOLLOWED BY A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGH
CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD. TEMPS WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL UNTIL FROPA ON TUESDAY WHEN SEASONAL TEMPS RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SCT-BKN LAKE CLOUDS PLAGUING NY TERMINALS AT THIS TIME WITH
EXCEPTION OF ELM AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY EAST OF AIRPORT. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 08Z WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CIRRUS
SKIRTING OVERHEAD NEXT 24 HOURS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR VSBYS
AT ITH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS AT ELM STARTING
AT 08Z. NOT SURE WHAT AFFECT UPPER CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND MAY PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM
MAXING OUT BUT THINK THE POTENTIAL IS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED THUS
HAVE LEFT IT IN AT THIS TIME.

LGT/VRB WINDS NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT
SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/JAB
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/JAB
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...PVN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 290529
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
129 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY ON SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY EVENING, AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST UPDATES THIS EVENING OTHER
THAN TO ADJUST FOR SOME PASSING CLOUDINESS SLIDING SOUTH...AND
ALSO SOME HIGHER CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. COLD ADVECTION ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TO BE OFFSET BY DRY
AIRMASS...HOWEVER DID BUMP UP SOME SKY COVER PERCENTAGES TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME LATE NIGHT LAKE CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES BOUNCING
AROUND THIS EVENING AS THEY DROP RAPIDLY UNDER FAIR RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHILE
SCATTERED AREAS OF CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK ACROSS THE EAST.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS STEADY OUT FOR A CHILLY NIGHT IN THE MID-UPR 40S
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

300 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION COMBINED
WITH SUNSHINE HAS PRODUCED AMPLE STRATOCU CLOUDS TODAY. THESE
CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF BREAKING UP A BIT, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AS WE HEAD TOWARD
SUNSET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL, A CLEAR SKY/CALM CONDITION
NIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME CHILLY AIR! MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 40S, WITH NEAR 40 IN OUR NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. WITH TEMPS
FALLING SO LOW TONIGHT, RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY WILL BRING US A LOT MORE
SUNSHINE. JUST LOOK AT DETROIT, MI NOW FOR OUR WEATHER TOMORROW.
HIGHS WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SATURDAY LOOKING MOSTLY DRY FOR EVERYONE,
AND SUNDAY BEING THE BETTER BET FOR RAIN. I CONTINUED THE LOWERING TREND
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS AND ONLY SHOW A 20% CHANCE FOR STORMS (FINGER
LAKES) THROUGH SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO THE SLOWER TIMING.

WHILE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THAT SUNDAY IS THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, THE NAM, EURO, AND
GFS ALL SHOW MLCAPES ABOVE 500 J/KG, AND IN SOME CASES ABOVE
1,000. SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE LIMITED GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS POINT A BIT TOO EARLY TO TELL FOR SURE, WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE IN 0-6 BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 25
(MINIMAL) AND 40 KTS (MODERATE). FOR NOW OUR CURRENT 50%-60%
CHANCE FOR STORMS DURING THE DAY LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
AREA WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST SOMEWHAT MOIST/MILD FLOW WITH CHC POPS
FOR CONVECTION. ON TUESDAY A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOLLOWED BY A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGH
CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD. TEMPS WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL UNTIL FROPA ON TUESDAY WHEN SEASONAL TEMPS RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SCT-BKN LAKE CLOUDS PLAGUING NY TERMINALS AT THIS TIME WITH
EXCEPTION OF ELM AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY EAST OF AIRPORT. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 08Z WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CIRRUS
SKIRTING OVERHEAD NEXT 24 HOURS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR VSBYS
AT ITH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS AT ELM STARTING
AT 08Z. NOT SURE WHAT AFFECT UPPER CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND MAY PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM
MAXING OUT BUT THINK THE POTENTIAL IS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED THUS
HAVE LEFT IT IN AT THIS TIME.

LGT/VRB WINDS NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT
SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/JAB
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/JAB
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 290206
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1006 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY ON SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY EVENING, AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
10 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST UPDATES THIS EVENING OTHER
THAN TO ADJUST FOR SOME PASSING CLOUDINESS SLIDING SOUTH...AND
ALSO SOME HIGHER CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. COLD ADVECTION ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TO BE OFFSET BY DRY
AIRMASS...HOWEVER DID BUMP UP SOME SKY COVER PERCENTAGES TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME LATE NIGHT LAKE CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES BOUNCING
AROUND THIS EVENING AS THEY DROP RAPIDLY UNDER FAIR RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHILE
SCATTERED AREAS OF CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK ACROSS THE EAST.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS STEADY OUT FOR A CHILLY NIGHT IN THE MID-UPR 40S
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

300 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION COMBINED
WITH SUNSHINE HAS PRODUCED AMPLE STRATOCU CLOUDS TODAY. THESE
CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF BREAKING UP A BIT, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AS WE HEAD TOWARD
SUNSET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL, A CLEAR SKY/CALM CONDITION
NIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME CHILLY AIR! MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 40S, WITH NEAR 40 IN OUR NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. WITH TEMPS
FALLING SO LOW TONIGHT, RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY WILL BRING US A LOT MORE
SUNSHINE. JUST LOOK AT DETROIT, MI NOW FOR OUR WEATHER TOMORROW.
HIGHS WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SATURDAY LOOKING MOSTLY DRY FOR EVERYONE,
AND SUNDAY BEING THE BETTER BET FOR RAIN. I CONTINUED THE LOWERING TREND
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS AND ONLY SHOW A 20% CHANCE FOR STORMS (FINGER
LAKES) THROUGH SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO THE SLOWER TIMING.

WHILE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THAT SUNDAY IS THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, THE NAM, EURO, AND
GFS ALL SHOW MLCAPES ABOVE 500 J/KG, AND IN SOME CASES ABOVE
1,000. SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE LIMITED GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS POINT A BIT TOO EARLY TO TELL FOR SURE, WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE IN 0-6 BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 25
(MINIMAL) AND 40 KTS (MODERATE). FOR NOW OUR CURRENT 50%-60%
CHANCE FOR STORMS DURING THE DAY LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
AREA WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST SOMEWHAT MOIST/MILD FLOW WITH CHC POPS
FOR CONVECTION. ON TUESDAY A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOLLOWED BY A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGH
CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD. TEMPS WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL UNTIL FROPA ON TUESDAY WHEN SEASONAL TEMPS RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... OTHER THAN AN EXPECTED PD OF FOG AT KELM TWDS DAYBREAK
(IFR/LIFR FM ABT 08-13Z)...VFR SHOULD RULE THIS PD. THIS IS A
SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FOG FCST FOR KELM...WITH FAIRLY STG LOW-
LVL DRY ADVECTION CONTINUING ATTM. HOWEVER...INDICATIONS ARE STILL
THAT THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY LTR TNT...ALLOWING AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING/FOG DVLPMT.

FOR THE MOST PART...SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB 5 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT
SHRA- TSRA...MAINLY ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/JAB
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/JAB
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 290206
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1006 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY ON SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY EVENING, AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
10 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST UPDATES THIS EVENING OTHER
THAN TO ADJUST FOR SOME PASSING CLOUDINESS SLIDING SOUTH...AND
ALSO SOME HIGHER CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. COLD ADVECTION ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TO BE OFFSET BY DRY
AIRMASS...HOWEVER DID BUMP UP SOME SKY COVER PERCENTAGES TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME LATE NIGHT LAKE CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES BOUNCING
AROUND THIS EVENING AS THEY DROP RAPIDLY UNDER FAIR RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHILE
SCATTERED AREAS OF CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK ACROSS THE EAST.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS STEADY OUT FOR A CHILLY NIGHT IN THE MID-UPR 40S
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

300 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION COMBINED
WITH SUNSHINE HAS PRODUCED AMPLE STRATOCU CLOUDS TODAY. THESE
CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF BREAKING UP A BIT, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AS WE HEAD TOWARD
SUNSET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL, A CLEAR SKY/CALM CONDITION
NIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME CHILLY AIR! MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 40S, WITH NEAR 40 IN OUR NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. WITH TEMPS
FALLING SO LOW TONIGHT, RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY WILL BRING US A LOT MORE
SUNSHINE. JUST LOOK AT DETROIT, MI NOW FOR OUR WEATHER TOMORROW.
HIGHS WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SATURDAY LOOKING MOSTLY DRY FOR EVERYONE,
AND SUNDAY BEING THE BETTER BET FOR RAIN. I CONTINUED THE LOWERING TREND
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS AND ONLY SHOW A 20% CHANCE FOR STORMS (FINGER
LAKES) THROUGH SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO THE SLOWER TIMING.

WHILE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THAT SUNDAY IS THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, THE NAM, EURO, AND
GFS ALL SHOW MLCAPES ABOVE 500 J/KG, AND IN SOME CASES ABOVE
1,000. SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE LIMITED GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS POINT A BIT TOO EARLY TO TELL FOR SURE, WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE IN 0-6 BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 25
(MINIMAL) AND 40 KTS (MODERATE). FOR NOW OUR CURRENT 50%-60%
CHANCE FOR STORMS DURING THE DAY LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
AREA WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST SOMEWHAT MOIST/MILD FLOW WITH CHC POPS
FOR CONVECTION. ON TUESDAY A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOLLOWED BY A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGH
CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD. TEMPS WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL UNTIL FROPA ON TUESDAY WHEN SEASONAL TEMPS RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... OTHER THAN AN EXPECTED PD OF FOG AT KELM TWDS DAYBREAK
(IFR/LIFR FM ABT 08-13Z)...VFR SHOULD RULE THIS PD. THIS IS A
SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FOG FCST FOR KELM...WITH FAIRLY STG LOW-
LVL DRY ADVECTION CONTINUING ATTM. HOWEVER...INDICATIONS ARE STILL
THAT THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY LTR TNT...ALLOWING AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING/FOG DVLPMT.

FOR THE MOST PART...SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB 5 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT
SHRA- TSRA...MAINLY ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/JAB
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/JAB
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 282341
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
741 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY ON SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY EVENING, AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION COMBINED
WITH SUNSHINE HAS PRODUCED AMPLE STRATOCU CLOUDS TODAY. THESE
CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF BREAKING UP A BIT, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AS WE HEAD TOWARD
SUNSET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL, A CLEAR SKY/CALM CONDITION
NIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME CHILLY AIR! MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 40S, WITH NEAR 40 IN OUR NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. WITH TEMPS
FALLING SO LOW TONIGHT, RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY WILL BRING US A LOT MORE
SUNSHINE. JUST LOOK AT DETROIT, MI NOW FOR OUR WEATHER TOMORROW.
HIGHS WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SATURDAY LOOKING MOSTLY DRY FOR EVERYONE,
AND SUNDAY BEING THE BETTER BET FOR RAIN. I CONTINUED THE LOWERING TREND
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS AND ONLY SHOW A 20% CHANCE FOR STORMS (FINGER
LAKES) THROUGH SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO THE SLOWER TIMING.

WHILE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THAT SUNDAY IS THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, THE NAM, EURO, AND
GFS ALL SHOW MLCAPES ABOVE 500 J/KG, AND IN SOME CASES ABOVE
1,000. SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE LIMITED GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS POINT A BIT TOO EARLY TO TELL FOR SURE, WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE IN 0-6 BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 25
(MINIMAL) AND 40 KTS (MODERATE). FOR NOW OUR CURRENT 50%-60%
CHANCE FOR STORMS DURING THE DAY LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
AREA WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST SOMEWHAT MOIST/MILD FLOW WITH CHC POPS
FOR CONVECTION. ON TUESDAY A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOLLOWED BY A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGH
CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD. TEMPS WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL UNTIL FROPA ON TUESDAY WHEN SEASONAL TEMPS RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... OTHER THAN AN EXPECTED PD OF FOG AT KELM TWDS DAYBREAK
(IFR/LIFR FM ABT 08-13Z)...VFR SHOULD RULE THIS PD. THIS IS A
SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FOG FCST FOR KELM...WITH FAIRLY STG LOW-
LVL DRY ADVECTION CONTINUING ATTM. HOWEVER...INDICATIONS ARE STILL
THAT THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY LTR TNT...ALLOWING AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING/FOG DVLPMT.

FOR THE MOST PART...SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB 5 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT
SHRA- TSRA...MAINLY ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 282341
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
741 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY ON SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY EVENING, AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION COMBINED
WITH SUNSHINE HAS PRODUCED AMPLE STRATOCU CLOUDS TODAY. THESE
CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF BREAKING UP A BIT, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AS WE HEAD TOWARD
SUNSET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL, A CLEAR SKY/CALM CONDITION
NIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME CHILLY AIR! MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 40S, WITH NEAR 40 IN OUR NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. WITH TEMPS
FALLING SO LOW TONIGHT, RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY WILL BRING US A LOT MORE
SUNSHINE. JUST LOOK AT DETROIT, MI NOW FOR OUR WEATHER TOMORROW.
HIGHS WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SATURDAY LOOKING MOSTLY DRY FOR EVERYONE,
AND SUNDAY BEING THE BETTER BET FOR RAIN. I CONTINUED THE LOWERING TREND
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS AND ONLY SHOW A 20% CHANCE FOR STORMS (FINGER
LAKES) THROUGH SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO THE SLOWER TIMING.

WHILE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THAT SUNDAY IS THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, THE NAM, EURO, AND
GFS ALL SHOW MLCAPES ABOVE 500 J/KG, AND IN SOME CASES ABOVE
1,000. SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE LIMITED GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS POINT A BIT TOO EARLY TO TELL FOR SURE, WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE IN 0-6 BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 25
(MINIMAL) AND 40 KTS (MODERATE). FOR NOW OUR CURRENT 50%-60%
CHANCE FOR STORMS DURING THE DAY LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
AREA WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST SOMEWHAT MOIST/MILD FLOW WITH CHC POPS
FOR CONVECTION. ON TUESDAY A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOLLOWED BY A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGH
CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD. TEMPS WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL UNTIL FROPA ON TUESDAY WHEN SEASONAL TEMPS RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... OTHER THAN AN EXPECTED PD OF FOG AT KELM TWDS DAYBREAK
(IFR/LIFR FM ABT 08-13Z)...VFR SHOULD RULE THIS PD. THIS IS A
SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FOG FCST FOR KELM...WITH FAIRLY STG LOW-
LVL DRY ADVECTION CONTINUING ATTM. HOWEVER...INDICATIONS ARE STILL
THAT THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY LTR TNT...ALLOWING AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING/FOG DVLPMT.

FOR THE MOST PART...SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB 5 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT
SHRA- TSRA...MAINLY ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 281928
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
328 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY ON SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY EVENING, AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION COMBINED
WITH SUNSHINE HAS PRODUCED AMPLE STRATOCU CLOUDS TODAY. THESE
CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF BREAKING UP A BIT, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AS WE HEAD TOWARD
SUNSET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL, A CLEAR SKY/CALM CONDITION
NIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME CHILLY AIR! MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 40S, WITH NEAR 40 IN OUR NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. WITH TEMPS
FALLING SO LOW TONIGHT, RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY WILL BRING US A LOT MORE
SUNSHINE. JUST LOOK AT DETROIT, MI NOW FOR OUR WEATHER TOMORROW.
HIGHS WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SATURDAY LOOKING MOSTLY DRY FOR EVERYONE,
AND SUNDAY BEING THE BETTER BET FOR RAIN. I CONTINUED THE LOWERING TREND
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS AND ONLY SHOW A 20% CHANCE FOR STORMS (FINGER
LAKES) THROUGH SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO THE SLOWER TIMING.

WHILE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THAT SUNDAY IS THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, THE NAM, EURO, AND
GFS ALL SHOW MLCAPES ABOVE 500 J/KG, AND IN SOME CASES ABOVE
1,000. SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE LIMITED GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS POINT A BIT TOO EARLY TO TELL FOR SURE, WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE IN 0-6 BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 25
(MINIMAL) AND 40 KTS (MODERATE). FOR NOW OUR CURRENT 50%-60%
CHANCE FOR STORMS DURING THE DAY LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
AREA WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST SOMEWHAT MOIST/MILD FLOW WITH CHC POPS
FOR CONVECTION. ON TUESDAY A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOLLOWED BY A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGH
CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD. TEMPS WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL UNTIL FROPA ON TUESDAY WHEN SEASONAL TEMPS RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON SCT/BKN FAIR WX CUMULUS WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. AT KITH,
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
EVENING SKIES WILL CLEAR UNDER SFC HIGH PRES AND LIGHT WINDS.
DENSE VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS LATE TONIGHT,
INCLUDED AT KELM CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORT MINS BETWEEN 08Z-13Z.
ON FRIDAY, SKIES WILL BE CLEAR ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT
SHRA- TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 281928
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
328 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY ON SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY EVENING, AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION COMBINED
WITH SUNSHINE HAS PRODUCED AMPLE STRATOCU CLOUDS TODAY. THESE
CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF BREAKING UP A BIT, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AS WE HEAD TOWARD
SUNSET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL, A CLEAR SKY/CALM CONDITION
NIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME CHILLY AIR! MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 40S, WITH NEAR 40 IN OUR NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. WITH TEMPS
FALLING SO LOW TONIGHT, RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY WILL BRING US A LOT MORE
SUNSHINE. JUST LOOK AT DETROIT, MI NOW FOR OUR WEATHER TOMORROW.
HIGHS WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SATURDAY LOOKING MOSTLY DRY FOR EVERYONE,
AND SUNDAY BEING THE BETTER BET FOR RAIN. I CONTINUED THE LOWERING TREND
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS AND ONLY SHOW A 20% CHANCE FOR STORMS (FINGER
LAKES) THROUGH SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO THE SLOWER TIMING.

WHILE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THAT SUNDAY IS THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, THE NAM, EURO, AND
GFS ALL SHOW MLCAPES ABOVE 500 J/KG, AND IN SOME CASES ABOVE
1,000. SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE LIMITED GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS POINT A BIT TOO EARLY TO TELL FOR SURE, WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE IN 0-6 BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 25
(MINIMAL) AND 40 KTS (MODERATE). FOR NOW OUR CURRENT 50%-60%
CHANCE FOR STORMS DURING THE DAY LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
AREA WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST SOMEWHAT MOIST/MILD FLOW WITH CHC POPS
FOR CONVECTION. ON TUESDAY A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOLLOWED BY A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGH
CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD. TEMPS WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL UNTIL FROPA ON TUESDAY WHEN SEASONAL TEMPS RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON SCT/BKN FAIR WX CUMULUS WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. AT KITH,
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
EVENING SKIES WILL CLEAR UNDER SFC HIGH PRES AND LIGHT WINDS.
DENSE VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS LATE TONIGHT,
INCLUDED AT KELM CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORT MINS BETWEEN 08Z-13Z.
ON FRIDAY, SKIES WILL BE CLEAR ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT
SHRA- TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 281810
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
210 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY ON SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
950 AM UPDATE...

I INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EXCEPT
FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST (PIKE COUNTY). VISIBLE SATELLITE CONFIRMS
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. THUS FAR THE RESULT HAS BEEN A MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY, WITH PERIODS OF BRIEF SUNSHINE. THROUGH AFTERNOON WE
MAY SEE MORE BREAKS OF SUN BUT DUE TO THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS, ANY SUN WOULD ONLY HELP TO CREATE MORE STRATOCU. IT
PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO 21Z THAT WE SEE MORE
APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...


HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER STRATOCU MAY BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS IF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
TO BE BELIEVED. COMBINED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL ATMOSPHERE
(925MB TEMPS 13C-15C), THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD SUPPRESS
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO ONLY THE UPPER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR NY STATE, WITH LOW TO MID 70S FORECAST FROM THE TWIN
TIERS DOWN THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY.

STILL COOL ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE STARTING
FROM A FAIRLY COOL TEMP AFTER DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATION. FORECASTING UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. STRATOCU DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY AND
THERE IS SOME WARMING ALOFT, SO TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 70S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY STATE. STICKING TO CHC POPS NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS RH VALUES REMAIN ON
THE LOW SIDE.

THE CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS INTO LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SWING A FRONT ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
ORIENTED THE POPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
AREA WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST SOMEWHAT MOIST/MILD FLOW WITH CHC POPS
FOR CONVECTION. ON TUESDAY A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST FOLLOWED BY A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGH
CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD. TEMPS WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL UNTIL FROPA ON TUESDAY WHEN SEASONAL TEMPS RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON SCT/BKN FAIR WX CUMULUS WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. AT KITH,
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
EVENING SKIES WILL CLEAR UNDER SFC HIGH PRES AND LIGHT WINDS.
DENSE VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS LATE TONIGHT,
INCLUDED AT KELM CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORT MINS BETWEEN 08Z-13Z.
ON FRIDAY, SKIES WILL BE CLEAR ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT
SHRA- TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 281356
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
956 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY ON SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
950 AM UPDATE...

I INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EXCEPT
FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST (PIKE COUNTY). VISIBLE SATELLITE CONFIRMS
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. THUS FAR THE RESULT HAS BEEN A MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY, WITH PERIODS OF BRIEF SUNSHINE. THROUGH AFTERNOON WE
MAY SEE MORE BREAKS OF SUN BUT DUE TO THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS, ANY SUN WOULD ONLY HELP TO CREATE MORE STRATOCU. IT
PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO 21Z THAT WE SEE MORE
APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...


HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER STRATOCU MAY BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS IF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
TO BE BELIEVED. COMBINED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL ATMOSPHERE
(925MB TEMPS 13C-15C), THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD SUPPRESS
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO ONLY THE UPPER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR NY STATE, WITH LOW TO MID 70S FORECAST FROM THE TWIN
TIERS DOWN THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY.

STILL COOL ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE STARTING
FROM A FAIRLY COOL TEMP AFTER DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATION. FORECASTING UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. STRATOCU DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY AND
THERE IS SOME WARMING ALOFT, SO TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 70S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY STATE. STICKING TO CHC POPS NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS RH VALUES REMAIN ON
THE LOW SIDE.

THE CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS INTO LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SWING A FRONT ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
ORIENTED THE POPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
CWA WL BE ON PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PD.
AS SRLY FLOW WORKS NORTH FM A WIDE-OPEN GOM HV BUMPED POPS TO LKLY
FOR SUNDAY. AS MAIN LOW HEADS ACRS SRN CANADA EXPECT JUST CHC POPS
FOR SUN NGT, HIGHEST ACRS NRN ZONES. SRLY FLOW THEN CONTINUES AHD
OF NEXT FRONTAL BNDRY MVG THRU TUESDAY AND HV BUMPED POPS JUST A
TAD FOR THIS TIME PD. HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE TUE NGT WITH DRY WX
EXPECTED THRU END OF LONG TERM.

AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT TEMPS WL RUN SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABV SEASONAL
VALUES UNTIL FROPA BY MID-WEEK. FOLLOWING CDFNT PASSAGE ON TUE
NGT TEMPS WL DROP DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES THRU THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPED OVER TERMINALS OVERNIGHT IN MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS. CIGS RANGE FROM LOW VFR TO MVFR, TO EVEN OCCASIONAL IFR
AT RME. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR BETWEEN 12Z AND
POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 16Z AT ITH AND BGM, WHEREAS MOST OTHER
RESTRICTIONS WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH 14Z. AFTER CLOUDS LIFT TO VFR
THIS MORNING EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AFTER 18Z THEN BECOME
CLEAR BY 00Z. AT ELM EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR VSBYS BETWEEN 08Z
AND 12Z FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. WINDS
BECOME LGT/VRB TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

RI...VFR.

SAT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-
TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 281041
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY ON SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER STRATOCU MAY BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS IF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
TO BE BELIEVED. COMBINED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL ATMOSPHERE
(925MB TEMPS 13C-15C), THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD SUPPRESS
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO ONLY THE UPPER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR NY STATE, WITH LOW TO MID 70S FORECAST FROM THE TWIN
TIERS DOWN THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY.

STILL COOL ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE STARTING
FROM A FAIRLY COOL TEMP AFTER DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATION. FORECASTING UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. STRATOCU DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY AND
THERE IS SOME WARMING ALOFT, SO TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 70S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY STATE. STICKING TO CHC POPS NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS RH VALUES REMAIN ON
THE LOW SIDE.

THE CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS INTO LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SWING A FRONT ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
ORIENTED THE POPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
CWA WL BE ON PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PD.
AS SRLY FLOW WORKS NORTH FM A WIDE-OPEN GOM HV BUMPED POPS TO LKLY
FOR SUNDAY. AS MAIN LOW HEADS ACRS SRN CANADA EXPECT JUST CHC POPS
FOR SUN NGT, HIGHEST ACRS NRN ZONES. SRLY FLOW THEN CONTINUES AHD
OF NEXT FRONTAL BNDRY MVG THRU TUESDAY AND HV BUMPED POPS JUST A
TAD FOR THIS TIME PD. HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE TUE NGT WITH DRY WX
EXPECTED THRU END OF LONG TERM.

AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT TEMPS WL RUN SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABV SEASONAL
VALUES UNTIL FROPA BY MID-WEEK. FOLLOWING CDFNT PASSAGE ON TUE
NGT TEMPS WL DROP DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES THRU THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPED OVER TERMINALS OVERNIGHT IN MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS. CIGS RANGE FROM LOW VFR TO MVFR, TO EVEN OCCASIONAL IFR
AT RME. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR BETWEEN 12Z AND
POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 16Z AT ITH AND BGM, WHEREAS MOST OTHER
RESTRICTIONS WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH 14Z. AFTER CLOUDS LIFT TO VFR
THIS MORNING EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AFTER 18Z THEN BECOME
CLEAR BY 00Z. AT ELM EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR VSBYS BETWEEN 08Z
AND 12Z FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. WINDS
BECOME LGT/VRB TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

RI...VFR.

SAT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-
TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 281041
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY ON SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER STRATOCU MAY BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS IF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
TO BE BELIEVED. COMBINED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL ATMOSPHERE
(925MB TEMPS 13C-15C), THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD SUPPRESS
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO ONLY THE UPPER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR NY STATE, WITH LOW TO MID 70S FORECAST FROM THE TWIN
TIERS DOWN THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY.

STILL COOL ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE STARTING
FROM A FAIRLY COOL TEMP AFTER DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATION. FORECASTING UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. STRATOCU DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY AND
THERE IS SOME WARMING ALOFT, SO TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 70S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY STATE. STICKING TO CHC POPS NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS RH VALUES REMAIN ON
THE LOW SIDE.

THE CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS INTO LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SWING A FRONT ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
ORIENTED THE POPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
CWA WL BE ON PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PD.
AS SRLY FLOW WORKS NORTH FM A WIDE-OPEN GOM HV BUMPED POPS TO LKLY
FOR SUNDAY. AS MAIN LOW HEADS ACRS SRN CANADA EXPECT JUST CHC POPS
FOR SUN NGT, HIGHEST ACRS NRN ZONES. SRLY FLOW THEN CONTINUES AHD
OF NEXT FRONTAL BNDRY MVG THRU TUESDAY AND HV BUMPED POPS JUST A
TAD FOR THIS TIME PD. HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE TUE NGT WITH DRY WX
EXPECTED THRU END OF LONG TERM.

AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT TEMPS WL RUN SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABV SEASONAL
VALUES UNTIL FROPA BY MID-WEEK. FOLLOWING CDFNT PASSAGE ON TUE
NGT TEMPS WL DROP DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES THRU THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPED OVER TERMINALS OVERNIGHT IN MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS. CIGS RANGE FROM LOW VFR TO MVFR, TO EVEN OCCASIONAL IFR
AT RME. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR BETWEEN 12Z AND
POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 16Z AT ITH AND BGM, WHEREAS MOST OTHER
RESTRICTIONS WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH 14Z. AFTER CLOUDS LIFT TO VFR
THIS MORNING EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AFTER 18Z THEN BECOME
CLEAR BY 00Z. AT ELM EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR VSBYS BETWEEN 08Z
AND 12Z FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. WINDS
BECOME LGT/VRB TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

RI...VFR.

SAT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-
TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 280703
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
303 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY ON SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER STRATOCU MAY BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS IF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
TO BE BELIEVED. COMBINED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL ATMOSPHERE
(925MB TEMPS 13C-15C), THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD SUPPRESS
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO ONLY THE UPPER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR NY STATE, WITH LOW TO MID 70S FORECAST FROM THE TWIN
TIERS DOWN THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY.

STILL COOL ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE STARTING
FROM A FAIRLY COOL TEMP AFTER DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATION. FORECASTING UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. STRATOCU DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY AND
THERE IS SOME WARMING ALOFT, SO TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 70S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY STATE. STICKING TO CHC POPS NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS RH VALUES REMAIN ON
THE LOW SIDE.

THE CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS INTO LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SWING A FRONT ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
ORIENTED THE POPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
CWA WL BE ON PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PD.
AS SRLY FLOW WORKS NORTH FM A WIDE-OPEN GOM HV BUMPED POPS TO LKLY
FOR SUNDAY. AS MAIN LOW HEADS ACRS SRN CANADA EXPECT JUST CHC POPS
FOR SUN NGT, HIGHEST ACRS NRN ZONES. SRLY FLOW THEN CONTINUES AHD
OF NEXT FRONTAL BNDRY MVG THRU TUESDAY AND HV BUMPED POPS JUST A
TAD FOR THIS TIME PD. HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE TUE NGT WITH DRY WX
EXPECTED THRU END OF LONG TERM.

AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT TEMPS WL RUN SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABV SEASONAL
VALUES UNTIL FROPA BY MID-WEEK. FOLLOWING CDFNT PASSAGE ON TUE
NGT TEMPS WL DROP DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES THRU THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT HAVE WORKED INTO TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. THESE ARE ONLY LIKELY TO GROW IN COVERAGE THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS COLD ADVECTION COMBINES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE MVFR RESTRICTIONS TOWARD 09Z AT ALL SITES. LOWEST
RESTRICTIONS OF 1500FT EXPECTED AT ITH AND BGM AFTER 10Z THIS
MORNING. AS HEATING COMMENCES, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RISE AND BECOME
VFR BY MID-MORNING THEN CLEARING AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-
TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 280703
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
303 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY ON SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER STRATOCU MAY BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS IF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
TO BE BELIEVED. COMBINED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL ATMOSPHERE
(925MB TEMPS 13C-15C), THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD SUPPRESS
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO ONLY THE UPPER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR NY STATE, WITH LOW TO MID 70S FORECAST FROM THE TWIN
TIERS DOWN THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY.

STILL COOL ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE STARTING
FROM A FAIRLY COOL TEMP AFTER DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATION. FORECASTING UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. STRATOCU DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY AND
THERE IS SOME WARMING ALOFT, SO TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 70S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY STATE. STICKING TO CHC POPS NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS RH VALUES REMAIN ON
THE LOW SIDE.

THE CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS INTO LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SWING A FRONT ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
ORIENTED THE POPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
CWA WL BE ON PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PD.
AS SRLY FLOW WORKS NORTH FM A WIDE-OPEN GOM HV BUMPED POPS TO LKLY
FOR SUNDAY. AS MAIN LOW HEADS ACRS SRN CANADA EXPECT JUST CHC POPS
FOR SUN NGT, HIGHEST ACRS NRN ZONES. SRLY FLOW THEN CONTINUES AHD
OF NEXT FRONTAL BNDRY MVG THRU TUESDAY AND HV BUMPED POPS JUST A
TAD FOR THIS TIME PD. HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE TUE NGT WITH DRY WX
EXPECTED THRU END OF LONG TERM.

AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT TEMPS WL RUN SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABV SEASONAL
VALUES UNTIL FROPA BY MID-WEEK. FOLLOWING CDFNT PASSAGE ON TUE
NGT TEMPS WL DROP DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES THRU THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT HAVE WORKED INTO TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. THESE ARE ONLY LIKELY TO GROW IN COVERAGE THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS COLD ADVECTION COMBINES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE MVFR RESTRICTIONS TOWARD 09Z AT ALL SITES. LOWEST
RESTRICTIONS OF 1500FT EXPECTED AT ITH AND BGM AFTER 10Z THIS
MORNING. AS HEATING COMMENCES, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RISE AND BECOME
VFR BY MID-MORNING THEN CLEARING AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-
TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 280640
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
240 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY ON SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER STRATOCU MAY BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS IF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
TO BE BELIEVED. COMBINED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL ATMOSPHERE
(925MB TEMPS 13C-15C), THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD SUPPRESS
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO ONLY THE UPPER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR NY STATE, WITH LOW TO MID 70S FORECAST FROM THE TWIN
TIERS DOWN THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY.

STILL COOL ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE STARTING
FROM A FAIRLY COOL TEMP AFTER DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATION. FORECASTING UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. STRATOCU DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY AND
THERE IS SOME WARMING ALOFT, SO TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 70S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY STATE. STICKING TO CHC POPS NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS RH VALUES REMAIN ON
THE LOW SIDE.

THE CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS INTO LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SWING A FRONT ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
ORIENTED THE POPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS AND
FRONTAL PASSAGES AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THIS PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN
A SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN
THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY BUT COULD INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
AS THE DAY GETS CLOSER. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAY BE FAIRLY DRY
AS AREA WILL RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEM WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT. NEXT
FRONT TO IMPACT AREA MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
CARRY CHC POPS FOR THIS FEATURE. TEMPS WILL RUN BETWEEN 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT HAVE WORKED INTO TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. THESE ARE ONLY LIKELY TO GROW IN COVERAGE THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS COLD ADVECTION COMBINES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE MVFR RESTRICTIONS TOWARD 09Z AT ALL SITES. LOWEST
RESTRICTIONS OF 1500FT EXPECTED AT ITH AND BGM AFTER 10Z THIS
MORNING. AS HEATING COMMENCES, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RISE AND BECOME
VFR BY MID-MORNING THEN CLEARING AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-
TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...PVN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 280640
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
240 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY ON SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER STRATOCU MAY BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS IF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
TO BE BELIEVED. COMBINED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL ATMOSPHERE
(925MB TEMPS 13C-15C), THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD SUPPRESS
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO ONLY THE UPPER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR NY STATE, WITH LOW TO MID 70S FORECAST FROM THE TWIN
TIERS DOWN THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY.

STILL COOL ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE STARTING
FROM A FAIRLY COOL TEMP AFTER DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATION. FORECASTING UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. STRATOCU DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY AND
THERE IS SOME WARMING ALOFT, SO TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 70S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY STATE. STICKING TO CHC POPS NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS RH VALUES REMAIN ON
THE LOW SIDE.

THE CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS INTO LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SWING A FRONT ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
ORIENTED THE POPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS AND
FRONTAL PASSAGES AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THIS PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN
A SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN
THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY BUT COULD INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
AS THE DAY GETS CLOSER. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAY BE FAIRLY DRY
AS AREA WILL RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEM WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT. NEXT
FRONT TO IMPACT AREA MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
CARRY CHC POPS FOR THIS FEATURE. TEMPS WILL RUN BETWEEN 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT HAVE WORKED INTO TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. THESE ARE ONLY LIKELY TO GROW IN COVERAGE THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS COLD ADVECTION COMBINES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE MVFR RESTRICTIONS TOWARD 09Z AT ALL SITES. LOWEST
RESTRICTIONS OF 1500FT EXPECTED AT ITH AND BGM AFTER 10Z THIS
MORNING. AS HEATING COMMENCES, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RISE AND BECOME
VFR BY MID-MORNING THEN CLEARING AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-
TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...PVN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 280547
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
147 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY ON SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER STRATOCU MAY BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS IF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
TO BE BELIEVED. COMBINED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL ATMOSPHERE
(925MB TEMPS 13C-15C), THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD SUPPRESS
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO ONLY THE UPPER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR NY STATE, WITH LOW TO MID 70S FORECAST FROM THE TWIN
TIERS DOWN THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY.

STILL COOL ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE STARTING
FROM A FAIRLY COOL TEMP AFTER DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATION. FORECASTING UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
250 PM UPDATE...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL A GREAT STRETCH OF
WEATHER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. ONE POSSIBLE DOWNSIDE WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO, AND LOOKING AT BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS, WE MAY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EARLY STRATUS MAY BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING, ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY STRATOCU. A FAIRLY
TYPICAL PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. MORE APPRECIABLE CLEAR SKIES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. OUR NEXT SHOT AT
PRECIP WILL COME LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HERE THOUGH MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DRIER, THUS I HAVE LOWERED CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. A
BETTER SHOT STILL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY. READ MORE BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS AND
FRONTAL PASSAGES AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THIS PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN
A SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN
THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY BUT COULD INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
AS THE DAY GETS CLOSER. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAY BE FAIRLY DRY
AS AREA WILL RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEM WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT. NEXT
FRONT TO IMPACT AREA MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
CARRY CHC POPS FOR THIS FEATURE. TEMPS WILL RUN BETWEEN 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT HAVE WORKED INTO TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. THESE ARE ONLY LIKELY TO GROW IN COVERAGE THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS COLD ADVECTION COMBINES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE MVFR RESTRICTIONS TOWARD 09Z AT ALL SITES. LOWEST
RESTRICTIONS OF 1500FT EXPECTED AT ITH AND BGM AFTER 10Z THIS
MORNING. AS HEATING COMMENCES, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RISE AND BECOME
VFR BY MID-MORNING THEN CLEARING AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-
TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...PVN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 280547
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
147 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY ON SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER STRATOCU MAY BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS IF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
TO BE BELIEVED. COMBINED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL ATMOSPHERE
(925MB TEMPS 13C-15C), THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD SUPPRESS
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO ONLY THE UPPER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR NY STATE, WITH LOW TO MID 70S FORECAST FROM THE TWIN
TIERS DOWN THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY.

STILL COOL ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE STARTING
FROM A FAIRLY COOL TEMP AFTER DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATION. FORECASTING UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
250 PM UPDATE...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL A GREAT STRETCH OF
WEATHER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. ONE POSSIBLE DOWNSIDE WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO, AND LOOKING AT BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS, WE MAY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EARLY STRATUS MAY BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING, ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY STRATOCU. A FAIRLY
TYPICAL PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. MORE APPRECIABLE CLEAR SKIES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. OUR NEXT SHOT AT
PRECIP WILL COME LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HERE THOUGH MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DRIER, THUS I HAVE LOWERED CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. A
BETTER SHOT STILL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY. READ MORE BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS AND
FRONTAL PASSAGES AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THIS PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN
A SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN
THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY BUT COULD INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
AS THE DAY GETS CLOSER. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAY BE FAIRLY DRY
AS AREA WILL RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEM WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT. NEXT
FRONT TO IMPACT AREA MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
CARRY CHC POPS FOR THIS FEATURE. TEMPS WILL RUN BETWEEN 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT HAVE WORKED INTO TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. THESE ARE ONLY LIKELY TO GROW IN COVERAGE THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS COLD ADVECTION COMBINES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE MVFR RESTRICTIONS TOWARD 09Z AT ALL SITES. LOWEST
RESTRICTIONS OF 1500FT EXPECTED AT ITH AND BGM AFTER 10Z THIS
MORNING. AS HEATING COMMENCES, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RISE AND BECOME
VFR BY MID-MORNING THEN CLEARING AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-
TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...PVN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 280531
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
131 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK, AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
820 PM UPDATE... SCTD CONVECTION OVER NE PA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND PUSH SEWD THIS EVE. IT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY
01-02Z...WITH DRY WX THEN EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NGT.

AN AMPLIFIED MID-LVL S/WV IS ALSO PUSHING EWD INTO UPSTATE NY
ATTM. LTR TNT...ONCE THIS FEATURE PUSHES INTO NRN NEW ENG...AND
NWLY FLOW DEEPENS ACRS THE RGN...SOME CLDNS COULD GET STEERED INTO
OUR NRN ZNS. FOR THIS REASON...WE`VE KEPT SKIES PTLY CLDY FOR THE
NRN FINGER LAKES/WRN MOHAWK VLY/SRN TUG HILL RGNS...WITH GENERALLY
CLEARING SKIES ELSEWHERE.

OUR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FCST SEEMS TO BE ON TARGET (RANGING THROUGH
THE 50S)...SO WE`VE KEPT THIS AS IS.

PREV DISC... 250 PM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH OUR CWA RIGHT NOW, WITH
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT LIMITED SHEAR. A
QUIET RADAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IS NOW SHOWING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER NEAR ELMIRA, AND SCT. CONVECTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. A
30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FROM ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY (ELMIRA/BINGHAMTON/ONEONTA) SOUTH AND EAST
INTO NORTHEAST PA. 12Z NAM/GFS MODEL FORECAST MLCAPES OF 1200
J/KG+ ARE BEING REALIZED WITH THE LATEST SPC ANALYSIS PROVIDING
VERIFICATION FOR THIS OVER NEPA AND THE CATSKILLS. THESE VALUES
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS ARE GOOD ENOUGH FOR
A WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH WITH HAIL OUR WARM ENVIRONMENT, WITH -20C
VALUES UP AROUND 25KT, WILL DIMINISH THIS THREAT A BIT. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SHEAR OR LACK THEREOF WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 25 KTS, BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR NON EXISTENT. WITH
THAT IN MIND STILL EXPECTING A FEW PULSE STORMS/MINI LINES TO FORM
WITH BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THE MAIN ISSUES. ANY CONVECTION
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY 02Z. A CLEARING SKY THIS EVENING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER 09Z AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR MAINLY CENTRAL NY/SOUTHERN NY
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
250 PM UPDATE...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL A GREAT STRETCH OF
WEATHER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. ONE POSSIBLE DOWNSIDE WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO, AND LOOKING AT BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS, WE MAY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EARLY STRATUS MAY BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING, ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY STRATOCU. A FAIRLY
TYPICAL PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. MORE APPRECIABLE CLEAR SKIES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. OUR NEXT SHOT AT
PRECIP WILL COME LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HERE THOUGH MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DRIER, THUS I HAVE LOWERED CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. A
BETTER SHOT STILL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY. READ MORE BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS AND
FRONTAL PASSAGES AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THIS PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN
A SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN
THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY BUT COULD INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
AS THE DAY GETS CLOSER. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAY BE FAIRLY DRY
AS AREA WILL RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEM WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT. NEXT
FRONT TO IMPACT AREA MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
CARRY CHC POPS FOR THIS FEATURE. TEMPS WILL RUN BETWEEN 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT HAVE WORKED INTO TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. THESE ARE ONLY LIKELY TO GROW IN COVERAGE THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS COLD ADVECTION COMBINES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE MVFR RESTRICTIONS TOWARD 09Z AT ALL SITES. LOWEST
RESTRICTIONS OF 1500FT EXPECTED AT ITH AND BGM AFTER 10Z THIS
MORNING. AS HEATING COMMENCES, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RISE AND BECOME
VFR BY MID-MORNING THEN CLEARING AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-
TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 280024
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
824 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK, AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
820 PM UPDATE... SCTD CONVECTION OVER NE PA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND PUSH SEWD THIS EVE. IT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY
01-02Z...WITH DRY WX THEN EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NGT.

AN AMPLIFIED MID-LVL S/WV IS ALSO PUSHING EWD INTO UPSTATE NY
ATTM. LTR TNT...ONCE THIS FEATURE PUSHES INTO NRN NEW ENG...AND
NWLY FLOW DEEPENS ACRS THE RGN...SOME CLDNS COULD GET STEERED INTO
OUR NRN ZNS. FOR THIS REASON...WE`VE KEPT SKIES PTLY CLDY FOR THE
NRN FINGER LAKES/WRN MOHAWK VLY/SRN TUG HILL RGNS...WITH GENERALLY
CLEARING SKIES ELSEWHERE.

OUR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FCST SEEMS TO BE ON TARGET (RANGING THROUGH
THE 50S)...SO WE`VE KEPT THIS AS IS.

PREV DISC... 250 PM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH OUR CWA RIGHT NOW, WITH
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT LIMITED SHEAR. A
QUIET RADAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IS NOW SHOWING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER NEAR ELMIRA, AND SCT. CONVECTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. A
30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FROM ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY (ELMIRA/BINGHAMTON/ONEONTA) SOUTH AND EAST
INTO NORTHEAST PA. 12Z NAM/GFS MODEL FORECAST MLCAPES OF 1200
J/KG+ ARE BEING REALIZED WITH THE LATEST SPC ANALYSIS PROVIDING
VERIFICATION FOR THIS OVER NEPA AND THE CATSKILLS. THESE VALUES
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS ARE GOOD ENOUGH FOR
A WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH WITH HAIL OUR WARM ENVIRONMENT, WITH -20C
VALUES UP AROUND 25KT, WILL DIMINISH THIS THREAT A BIT. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SHEAR OR LACK THEREOF WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 25 KTS, BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR NON EXISTENT. WITH
THAT IN MIND STILL EXPECTING A FEW PULSE STORMS/MINI LINES TO FORM
WITH BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THE MAIN ISSUES. ANY CONVECTION
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY 02Z. A CLEARING SKY THIS EVENING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER 09Z AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR MAINLY CENTRAL NY/SOUTHERN NY
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
250 PM UPDATE...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL A GREAT STRETCH OF
WEATHER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. ONE POSSIBLE DOWNSIDE WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO, AND LOOKING AT BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS, WE MAY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EARLY STRATUS MAY BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING, ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY STRATOCU. A FAIRLY
TYPICAL PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. MORE APPRECIABLE CLEAR SKIES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. OUR NEXT SHOT AT
PRECIP WILL COME LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HERE THOUGH MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DRIER, THUS I HAVE LOWERED CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. A
BETTER SHOT STILL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY. READ MORE BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS AND
FRONTAL PASSAGES AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THIS PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN
A SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN
THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY BUT COULD INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
AS THE DAY GETS CLOSER. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAY BE FAIRLY DRY
AS AREA WILL RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEM WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT. NEXT
FRONT TO IMPACT AREA MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
CARRY CHC POPS FOR THIS FEATURE. TEMPS WILL RUN BETWEEN 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. VFR WILL
GENERALLY BE THE RULE FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST. A SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN AREA OF MOISTURE SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY IN
THE MORNING. CIGS BURN OFF TO VFR AGAIN TOWARD MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...
BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES 15-20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-
TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...JAB/RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 280024
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
824 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK, AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
820 PM UPDATE... SCTD CONVECTION OVER NE PA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND PUSH SEWD THIS EVE. IT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY
01-02Z...WITH DRY WX THEN EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NGT.

AN AMPLIFIED MID-LVL S/WV IS ALSO PUSHING EWD INTO UPSTATE NY
ATTM. LTR TNT...ONCE THIS FEATURE PUSHES INTO NRN NEW ENG...AND
NWLY FLOW DEEPENS ACRS THE RGN...SOME CLDNS COULD GET STEERED INTO
OUR NRN ZNS. FOR THIS REASON...WE`VE KEPT SKIES PTLY CLDY FOR THE
NRN FINGER LAKES/WRN MOHAWK VLY/SRN TUG HILL RGNS...WITH GENERALLY
CLEARING SKIES ELSEWHERE.

OUR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FCST SEEMS TO BE ON TARGET (RANGING THROUGH
THE 50S)...SO WE`VE KEPT THIS AS IS.

PREV DISC... 250 PM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH OUR CWA RIGHT NOW, WITH
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT LIMITED SHEAR. A
QUIET RADAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IS NOW SHOWING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER NEAR ELMIRA, AND SCT. CONVECTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. A
30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FROM ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY (ELMIRA/BINGHAMTON/ONEONTA) SOUTH AND EAST
INTO NORTHEAST PA. 12Z NAM/GFS MODEL FORECAST MLCAPES OF 1200
J/KG+ ARE BEING REALIZED WITH THE LATEST SPC ANALYSIS PROVIDING
VERIFICATION FOR THIS OVER NEPA AND THE CATSKILLS. THESE VALUES
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS ARE GOOD ENOUGH FOR
A WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH WITH HAIL OUR WARM ENVIRONMENT, WITH -20C
VALUES UP AROUND 25KT, WILL DIMINISH THIS THREAT A BIT. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SHEAR OR LACK THEREOF WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 25 KTS, BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR NON EXISTENT. WITH
THAT IN MIND STILL EXPECTING A FEW PULSE STORMS/MINI LINES TO FORM
WITH BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THE MAIN ISSUES. ANY CONVECTION
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY 02Z. A CLEARING SKY THIS EVENING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER 09Z AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR MAINLY CENTRAL NY/SOUTHERN NY
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
250 PM UPDATE...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL A GREAT STRETCH OF
WEATHER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. ONE POSSIBLE DOWNSIDE WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO, AND LOOKING AT BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS, WE MAY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EARLY STRATUS MAY BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING, ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY STRATOCU. A FAIRLY
TYPICAL PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. MORE APPRECIABLE CLEAR SKIES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. OUR NEXT SHOT AT
PRECIP WILL COME LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HERE THOUGH MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DRIER, THUS I HAVE LOWERED CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. A
BETTER SHOT STILL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY. READ MORE BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS AND
FRONTAL PASSAGES AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THIS PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN
A SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN
THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY BUT COULD INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
AS THE DAY GETS CLOSER. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAY BE FAIRLY DRY
AS AREA WILL RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEM WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT. NEXT
FRONT TO IMPACT AREA MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
CARRY CHC POPS FOR THIS FEATURE. TEMPS WILL RUN BETWEEN 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. VFR WILL
GENERALLY BE THE RULE FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST. A SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN AREA OF MOISTURE SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY IN
THE MORNING. CIGS BURN OFF TO VFR AGAIN TOWARD MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...
BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES 15-20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-
TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...JAB/RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 280016
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
816 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK, AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
250 PM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH OUR CWA RIGHT NOW, WITH
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT LIMITED SHEAR. A
QUIET RADAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IS NOW SHOWING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER NEAR ELMIRA, AND SCT. CONVECTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. A
30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FROM ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY (ELMIRA/BINGHAMTON/ONEONTA) SOUTH AND EAST
INTO NORTHEAST PA. 12Z NAM/GFS MODEL FORECAST MLCAPES OF 1200
J/KG+ ARE BEING REALIZED WITH THE LATEST SPC ANALYSIS PROVIDING
VERIFICATION FOR THIS OVER NEPA AND THE CATSKILLS. THESE VALUES
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS ARE GOOD ENOUGH FOR
A WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH WITH HAIL OUR WARM ENVIRONMENT, WITH -20C
VALUES UP AROUND 25KT, WILL DIMINISH THIS THREAT A BIT. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SHEAR OR LACK THEREOF WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 25 KTS, BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR NON EXISTENT. WITH
THAT IN MIND STILL EXPECTING A FEW PULSE STORMS/MINI LINES TO FORM
WITH BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THE MAIN ISSUES. ANY CONVECTION
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY 02Z. A CLEARING SKY THIS EVENING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER 09Z AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR MAINLY CENTRAL NY/SOUTHERN NY
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
250 PM UPDATE...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL A GREAT STRETCH OF
WEATHER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. ONE POSSIBLE DOWNSIDE WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO, AND LOOKING AT BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS, WE MAY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EARLY STRATUS MAY BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING, ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY STRATOCU. A FAIRLY
TYPICAL PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. MORE APPRECIABLE CLEAR SKIES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. OUR NEXT SHOT AT
PRECIP WILL COME LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HERE THOUGH MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DRIER, THUS I HAVE LOWERED CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. A
BETTER SHOT STILL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY. READ MORE BELOW.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS AND
FRONTAL PASSAGES AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THIS PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN
A SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN
THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY BUT COULD INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
AS THE DAY GETS CLOSER. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAY BE FAIRLY DRY
AS AREA WILL RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEM WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT. NEXT
FRONT TO IMPACT AREA MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
CARRY CHC POPS FOR THIS FEATURE. TEMPS WILL RUN BETWEEN 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. VFR WILL
GENERALLY BE THE RULE FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST. A SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN AREA OF MOISTURE SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY IN
THE MORNING. CIGS BURN OFF TO VFR AGAIN TOWARD MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...
BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES 15-20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-
TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...JAB





000
FXUS61 KBGM 280016
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
816 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK, AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
250 PM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH OUR CWA RIGHT NOW, WITH
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT LIMITED SHEAR. A
QUIET RADAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IS NOW SHOWING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER NEAR ELMIRA, AND SCT. CONVECTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. A
30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FROM ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY (ELMIRA/BINGHAMTON/ONEONTA) SOUTH AND EAST
INTO NORTHEAST PA. 12Z NAM/GFS MODEL FORECAST MLCAPES OF 1200
J/KG+ ARE BEING REALIZED WITH THE LATEST SPC ANALYSIS PROVIDING
VERIFICATION FOR THIS OVER NEPA AND THE CATSKILLS. THESE VALUES
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS ARE GOOD ENOUGH FOR
A WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH WITH HAIL OUR WARM ENVIRONMENT, WITH -20C
VALUES UP AROUND 25KT, WILL DIMINISH THIS THREAT A BIT. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SHEAR OR LACK THEREOF WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 25 KTS, BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR NON EXISTENT. WITH
THAT IN MIND STILL EXPECTING A FEW PULSE STORMS/MINI LINES TO FORM
WITH BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THE MAIN ISSUES. ANY CONVECTION
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY 02Z. A CLEARING SKY THIS EVENING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER 09Z AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR MAINLY CENTRAL NY/SOUTHERN NY
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
250 PM UPDATE...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL A GREAT STRETCH OF
WEATHER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. ONE POSSIBLE DOWNSIDE WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO, AND LOOKING AT BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS, WE MAY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EARLY STRATUS MAY BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING, ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY STRATOCU. A FAIRLY
TYPICAL PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. MORE APPRECIABLE CLEAR SKIES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. OUR NEXT SHOT AT
PRECIP WILL COME LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HERE THOUGH MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DRIER, THUS I HAVE LOWERED CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. A
BETTER SHOT STILL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY. READ MORE BELOW.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS AND
FRONTAL PASSAGES AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THIS PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN
A SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN
THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY BUT COULD INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
AS THE DAY GETS CLOSER. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAY BE FAIRLY DRY
AS AREA WILL RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEM WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT. NEXT
FRONT TO IMPACT AREA MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
CARRY CHC POPS FOR THIS FEATURE. TEMPS WILL RUN BETWEEN 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. VFR WILL
GENERALLY BE THE RULE FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST. A SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN AREA OF MOISTURE SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY IN
THE MORNING. CIGS BURN OFF TO VFR AGAIN TOWARD MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...
BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES 15-20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-
TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...JAB






000
FXUS61 KBGM 271904
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
304 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK, AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
250 PM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH OUR CWA RIGHT NOW, WITH
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT LIMITED SHEAR. A
QUIET RADAR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IS NOW SHOWING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER NEAR ELMIRA, AND SCT. CONVECTION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. A
30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FROM ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY (ELMIRA/BINGHAMTON/ONEONTA) SOUTH AND EAST
INTO NORTHEAST PA. 12Z NAM/GFS MODEL FORECAST MLCAPES OF 1200
J/KG+ ARE BEING REALIZED WITH THE LATEST SPC ANALYSIS PROVIDING
VERIFICATION FOR THIS OVER NEPA AND THE CATSKILLS. THESE VALUES
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS ARE GOOD ENOUGH FOR
A WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH WITH HAIL OUR WARM ENVIRONMENT, WITH -20C
VALUES UP AROUND 25KT, WILL DIMINISH THIS THREAT A BIT. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SHEAR OR LACK THEREOF WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 25 KTS, BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR NON EXISTENT. WITH
THAT IN MIND STILL EXPECTING A FEW PULSE STORMS/MINI LINES TO FORM
WITH BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THE MAIN ISSUES. ANY CONVECTION
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY 02Z. A CLEARING SKY THIS EVENING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER 09Z AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR MAINLY CENTRAL NY/SOUTHERN NY
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
250 PM UPDATE...

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL A GREAT STRETCH OF
WEATHER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. ONE POSSIBLE DOWNSIDE WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO, AND LOOKING AT BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS, WE MAY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EARLY STRATUS MAY BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING, ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY STRATOCU. A FAIRLY
TYPICAL PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. MORE APPRECIABLE CLEAR SKIES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. OUR NEXT SHOT AT
PRECIP WILL COME LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HERE THOUGH MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DRIER, THUS I HAVE LOWERED CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. A
BETTER SHOT STILL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY. READ MORE BELOW.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS AND
FRONTAL PASSAGES AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THIS PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN
A SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN
THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY BUT COULD INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
AS THE DAY GETS CLOSER. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAY BE FAIRLY DRY
AS AREA WILL RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEM WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT. NEXT
FRONT TO IMPACT AREA MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
CARRY CHC POPS FOR THIS FEATURE. TEMPS WILL RUN BETWEEN 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE TERMINALS ATTM WITH MAIN
IMPACT LOWER CIGS. AT KRME/KSYR/KELM, CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. AT
KITH/KBGM, LOW MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WITH
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z. AT KAVP, INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MODERATE SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT INCLUDED ATTM. OVERNIGHT, SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL LATE
WHEN ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH BETWEEN 09Z-14Z. DURING
THIS PERIOD INCLUDED MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS BUT KAVP. AFTER
14Z CIGS WILL BE PRIMARILY LOW VFR.

W/SW WINDS AT 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THEN NW AROUND 10 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-
TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 271825
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
225 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK, AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
950 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WESTERN NY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW
JUST WEST OF SYRACUSE. WE HAD A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
EARLIER OVER CNY BUT RIGHT NOW THE RADAR IS QUIET. SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE UP AFTER 18Z FROM NEAR THE BINGHAMTON AREA, SOUTH AND
EAST. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MLCAPES OF OVER 1000 J/KG, AND
LI`S APPROACHING -4 DURING THIS TIME. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALREADY MADE IT TOWARD THE NY/PA
LINE. THIS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND SEVERE POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY IN
NY STATE. BASED ON THIS A 30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON LOOK GOOD FOR THE AREAS JUST MENTIONED. AS FAR AS SEVERE
POTENTIAL, HIGHEST RISK WOULD BE NORTHEAST PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY
NY WHERE WE ARE SEEING THE MOST SUN. DECENT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WILL BE TEMPERED BY MINIMAL MID LEVEL SHEAR (0-6 BULK SHEARS OF
25 KTS) AND VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR (0-1 KM BULK SHEARS OF 10 KTS
OR LESS). STORM MODE WOULD BE PULSE STORMS OR A FEW MINI LINES,
WITH DAMAGING WINDS MAIN THREAT DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS. HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT WITH INSTABILITY OVER
1000, BUT HIGH -20C LEVELS (26KFT) AND MINIMAL MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL
LIMIT FULL POTENTIAL.


3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO PUSHING SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS STARTING
TO FORM ON THE SOUTH SHORE. VALLEY FOG HAS MANAGED TO FORM AGAIN
IN NE PA AND THE SRN CATSKILLS. THIS SHOULD BE MINIMAL BY 8 AM
WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS.

COLD FRONT PROVIDING A BOUNDARY FOR CONVERGENCE WHILE ALOFT LAPSE
RATES INCREASE WITH THE COLDER AIR. SFC DEWPTS INCREASE INTO THE
M60S. CAPES JUMP TO 1K MIDDAY ACROSS THE SRN TIER, CATSKILLS AND
NE PA. SHEAR INCREASES TO 30 KTS DESPITE THE LIGHT LOW LEVELS AND
NOT MUCH OF A LLJ. THIS IS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM WHAT THE MODELS
SHOWED YESTERDAY. SPC HAS GONE TO A SEE TEXT AND A 5 PERCENT CHC
OF DAMAGING WINDS TODAY. SOME MODELS ESPECIALLY THE NAM FORMING A
BROKEN LINE OF TSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATES 88 AND
86...ONEONTA...BGM...ELM LINE...WHICH DROPS SE THIS AFTN INTO NE
PA. LARGE HAIL MAY BE HARD TO PRODUCE WITH A STORM MOTION OF 10 TO
15 KTS.

LATE AFTN WITH THE FRONT ON THE COAST AND DIURNAL HEATING WANING
CONVECTION WILL DIE AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE CWA. A FEW POSSIBLE
SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE THIS EVENING.

NW FLOW OF DRY AIR WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES AND DROP TEMPS INTO
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE AND BE CENTERED OVER
THE CWA 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THE LL WINDS WILL BE NORTH SO DESPITE
THE +7C 850MB TEMPS CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOIST AIR WILL BE UNDER 5K FT AND THE
INVERSION WITH DRY AIR ABOVE IT. FRIDAY INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AND
WARMER. CLOSE TO NORMALS.

FRI NGT DEEP SW FLOW BRINGING IN WARMER AIR AND EVENTUALLY
MOISTURE. LATE THERE COULD BE A SHOWER IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE
BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE IS. KEPT THE SCHC POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS AND
FRONTAL PASSAGES AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THIS PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN
A SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN
THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY BUT COULD INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
AS THE DAY GETS CLOSER. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAY BE FAIRLY DRY
AS AREA WILL RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEM WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT. NEXT
FRONT TO IMPACT AREA MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
CARRY CHC POPS FOR THIS FEATURE. TEMPS WILL RUN BETWEEN 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE TERMINALS ATTM WITH MAIN
IMPACT LOWER CIGS. AT KRME/KSYR/KELM, CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. AT
KITH/KBGM, LOW MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WITH
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z. AT KAVP, INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MODERATE SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT INCLUDED ATTM. OVERNIGHT, SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL LATE
WHEN ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH BETWEEN 09Z-14Z. DURING
THIS PERIOD INCLUDED MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS BUT KAVP. AFTER
14Z CIGS WILL BE PRIMARILY LOW VFR.

W/SW WINDS AT 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THEN NW AROUND 10 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-
TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 271825
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
225 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK, AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
950 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WESTERN NY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW
JUST WEST OF SYRACUSE. WE HAD A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
EARLIER OVER CNY BUT RIGHT NOW THE RADAR IS QUIET. SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE UP AFTER 18Z FROM NEAR THE BINGHAMTON AREA, SOUTH AND
EAST. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MLCAPES OF OVER 1000 J/KG, AND
LI`S APPROACHING -4 DURING THIS TIME. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALREADY MADE IT TOWARD THE NY/PA
LINE. THIS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND SEVERE POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY IN
NY STATE. BASED ON THIS A 30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON LOOK GOOD FOR THE AREAS JUST MENTIONED. AS FAR AS SEVERE
POTENTIAL, HIGHEST RISK WOULD BE NORTHEAST PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY
NY WHERE WE ARE SEEING THE MOST SUN. DECENT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WILL BE TEMPERED BY MINIMAL MID LEVEL SHEAR (0-6 BULK SHEARS OF
25 KTS) AND VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR (0-1 KM BULK SHEARS OF 10 KTS
OR LESS). STORM MODE WOULD BE PULSE STORMS OR A FEW MINI LINES,
WITH DAMAGING WINDS MAIN THREAT DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS. HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT WITH INSTABILITY OVER
1000, BUT HIGH -20C LEVELS (26KFT) AND MINIMAL MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL
LIMIT FULL POTENTIAL.


3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO PUSHING SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS STARTING
TO FORM ON THE SOUTH SHORE. VALLEY FOG HAS MANAGED TO FORM AGAIN
IN NE PA AND THE SRN CATSKILLS. THIS SHOULD BE MINIMAL BY 8 AM
WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS.

COLD FRONT PROVIDING A BOUNDARY FOR CONVERGENCE WHILE ALOFT LAPSE
RATES INCREASE WITH THE COLDER AIR. SFC DEWPTS INCREASE INTO THE
M60S. CAPES JUMP TO 1K MIDDAY ACROSS THE SRN TIER, CATSKILLS AND
NE PA. SHEAR INCREASES TO 30 KTS DESPITE THE LIGHT LOW LEVELS AND
NOT MUCH OF A LLJ. THIS IS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM WHAT THE MODELS
SHOWED YESTERDAY. SPC HAS GONE TO A SEE TEXT AND A 5 PERCENT CHC
OF DAMAGING WINDS TODAY. SOME MODELS ESPECIALLY THE NAM FORMING A
BROKEN LINE OF TSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATES 88 AND
86...ONEONTA...BGM...ELM LINE...WHICH DROPS SE THIS AFTN INTO NE
PA. LARGE HAIL MAY BE HARD TO PRODUCE WITH A STORM MOTION OF 10 TO
15 KTS.

LATE AFTN WITH THE FRONT ON THE COAST AND DIURNAL HEATING WANING
CONVECTION WILL DIE AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE CWA. A FEW POSSIBLE
SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE THIS EVENING.

NW FLOW OF DRY AIR WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES AND DROP TEMPS INTO
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE AND BE CENTERED OVER
THE CWA 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THE LL WINDS WILL BE NORTH SO DESPITE
THE +7C 850MB TEMPS CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOIST AIR WILL BE UNDER 5K FT AND THE
INVERSION WITH DRY AIR ABOVE IT. FRIDAY INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AND
WARMER. CLOSE TO NORMALS.

FRI NGT DEEP SW FLOW BRINGING IN WARMER AIR AND EVENTUALLY
MOISTURE. LATE THERE COULD BE A SHOWER IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE
BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE IS. KEPT THE SCHC POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS AND
FRONTAL PASSAGES AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THIS PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN
A SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN
THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY BUT COULD INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
AS THE DAY GETS CLOSER. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAY BE FAIRLY DRY
AS AREA WILL RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEM WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT. NEXT
FRONT TO IMPACT AREA MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
CARRY CHC POPS FOR THIS FEATURE. TEMPS WILL RUN BETWEEN 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE TERMINALS ATTM WITH MAIN
IMPACT LOWER CIGS. AT KRME/KSYR/KELM, CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. AT
KITH/KBGM, LOW MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WITH
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z. AT KAVP, INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MODERATE SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT INCLUDED ATTM. OVERNIGHT, SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL LATE
WHEN ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH BETWEEN 09Z-14Z. DURING
THIS PERIOD INCLUDED MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS BUT KAVP. AFTER
14Z CIGS WILL BE PRIMARILY LOW VFR.

W/SW WINDS AT 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THEN NW AROUND 10 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-
TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 271359
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
959 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK, AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
950 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WESTERN NY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW
JUST WEST OF SYRACUSE. WE HAD A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
EARLIER OVER CNY BUT RIGHT NOW THE RADAR IS QUIET. SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE UP AFTER 18Z FROM NEAR THE BINGHAMTON AREA, SOUTH AND
EAST. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MLCAPES OF OVER 1000 J/KG, AND
LI`S APPROACHING -4 DURING THIS TIME. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALREADY MADE IT TOWARD THE NY/PA
LINE. THIS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND SEVERE POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY IN
NY STATE. BASED ON THIS A 30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON LOOK GOOD FOR THE AREAS JUST MENTIONED. AS FAR AS SEVERE
POTENTIAL, HIGHEST RISK WOULD BE NORTHEAST PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY
NY WHERE WE ARE SEEING THE MOST SUN. DECENT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WILL BE TEMPERED BY MINIMAL MID LEVEL SHEAR (0-6 BULK SHEARS OF
25 KTS) AND VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR (0-1 KM BULK SHEARS OF 10 KTS
OR LESS). STORM MODE WOULD BE PULSE STORMS OR A FEW MINI LINES,
WITH DAMAGING WINDS MAIN THREAT DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS. HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT WITH INSTABILITY OVER
1000, BUT HIGH -20C LEVELS (26KFT) AND MINIMAL MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL
LIMIT FULL POTENTIAL.


3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO PUSHING SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS STARTING
TO FORM ON THE SOUTH SHORE. VALLEY FOG HAS MANAGED TO FORM AGAIN
IN NE PA AND THE SRN CATSKILLS. THIS SHOULD BE MINIMAL BY 8 AM
WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS.

COLD FRONT PROVIDING A BOUNDARY FOR CONVERGENCE WHILE ALOFT LAPSE
RATES INCREASE WITH THE COLDER AIR. SFC DEWPTS INCREASE INTO THE
M60S. CAPES JUMP TO 1K MIDDAY ACROSS THE SRN TIER, CATSKILLS AND
NE PA. SHEAR INCREASES TO 30 KTS DESPITE THE LIGHT LOW LEVELS AND
NOT MUCH OF A LLJ. THIS IS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM WHAT THE MODELS
SHOWED YESTERDAY. SPC HAS GONE TO A SEE TEXT AND A 5 PERCENT CHC
OF DAMAGING WINDS TODAY. SOME MODELS ESPECIALLY THE NAM FORMING A
BROKEN LINE OF TSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATES 88 AND
86...ONEONTA...BGM...ELM LINE...WHICH DROPS SE THIS AFTN INTO NE
PA. LARGE HAIL MAY BE HARD TO PRODUCE WITH A STORM MOTION OF 10 TO
15 KTS.

LATE AFTN WITH THE FRONT ON THE COAST AND DIURNAL HEATING WANING
CONVECTION WILL DIE AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE CWA. A FEW POSSIBLE
SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE THIS EVENING.

NW FLOW OF DRY AIR WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES AND DROP TEMPS INTO
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE AND BE CENTERED OVER
THE CWA 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THE LL WINDS WILL BE NORTH SO DESPITE
THE +7C 850MB TEMPS CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOIST AIR WILL BE UNDER 5K FT AND THE
INVERSION WITH DRY AIR ABOVE IT. FRIDAY INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AND
WARMER. CLOSE TO NORMALS.

FRI NGT DEEP SW FLOW BRINGING IN WARMER AIR AND EVENTUALLY
MOISTURE. LATE THERE COULD BE A SHOWER IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE
BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE IS. KEPT THE SCHC POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2PM TUESDAY UPDATE...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS SUGGESTS SOME SHRA WORK INTO C NY WITH THE
EURO AND CMC SHOWING SOME PRECIP N OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
WENT WITH HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S FORECASTS AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC
SHRA FRI NGT. SAT THRU SUNDAY HAVE CHC POPS SHRA AND TSRA AS FRNT
PRESSES EWRD INTO THE ERN LAKES AND SRLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WORK INTO NY AND PA. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY ON
SAT THAN SUNDAY WHEN THE FRNT WILL BE CLOSER AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT LINGERING SHRA AND SOME TSRA
EVEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND SOME SORT
OF SRN BRANCH WAVE MOVES N ALONG THE FRNT. DETAILS THIS FAR OUT
ARE NOT ENUF FOR ANY KIND OF DETAILED TIMING SO WILL CONT WITH A
BLEND OF HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S POPS WHICH IS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TO START AND WILL
CREEP TO ABV NORMAL BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
645 AM DISCUSSION...
SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS TRAVERSED THE FINGER LAKES AND SKIRTED THE
KSYR TERMINAL IN THE LAST HOUR. VFR ACROSS THE BOARD SO FAR, WITH
KSYR CEILING DROPPING TO 3200 FEET WITH THE SHOWER PASSAGE.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE RADAR COVERAGE UPSTREAM, BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT ONCE INSTABILITY INCREASES. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THUNDER FOR ANY OF
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. NONE OF OUR SITES ARE WITHIN CCFP
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS.

LOOK FOR SW WINDS TODAY AT 6 TO 9 KNOTS, AND A SCATTERED VFR CU DECK
DURING THE AFTERNOON.


2 AM DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE, AND THEN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. A THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY SHOWER
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS, BUT PROBABILTY FOR SUCH AN EVENT
IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 9 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT-SUN...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 271359
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
959 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK, AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
950 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WESTERN NY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW
JUST WEST OF SYRACUSE. WE HAD A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
EARLIER OVER CNY BUT RIGHT NOW THE RADAR IS QUIET. SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE UP AFTER 18Z FROM NEAR THE BINGHAMTON AREA, SOUTH AND
EAST. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MLCAPES OF OVER 1000 J/KG, AND
LI`S APPROACHING -4 DURING THIS TIME. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALREADY MADE IT TOWARD THE NY/PA
LINE. THIS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND SEVERE POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY IN
NY STATE. BASED ON THIS A 30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON LOOK GOOD FOR THE AREAS JUST MENTIONED. AS FAR AS SEVERE
POTENTIAL, HIGHEST RISK WOULD BE NORTHEAST PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY
NY WHERE WE ARE SEEING THE MOST SUN. DECENT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WILL BE TEMPERED BY MINIMAL MID LEVEL SHEAR (0-6 BULK SHEARS OF
25 KTS) AND VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR (0-1 KM BULK SHEARS OF 10 KTS
OR LESS). STORM MODE WOULD BE PULSE STORMS OR A FEW MINI LINES,
WITH DAMAGING WINDS MAIN THREAT DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS. HAIL CAN`T BE RULED OUT WITH INSTABILITY OVER
1000, BUT HIGH -20C LEVELS (26KFT) AND MINIMAL MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL
LIMIT FULL POTENTIAL.


3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO PUSHING SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS STARTING
TO FORM ON THE SOUTH SHORE. VALLEY FOG HAS MANAGED TO FORM AGAIN
IN NE PA AND THE SRN CATSKILLS. THIS SHOULD BE MINIMAL BY 8 AM
WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS.

COLD FRONT PROVIDING A BOUNDARY FOR CONVERGENCE WHILE ALOFT LAPSE
RATES INCREASE WITH THE COLDER AIR. SFC DEWPTS INCREASE INTO THE
M60S. CAPES JUMP TO 1K MIDDAY ACROSS THE SRN TIER, CATSKILLS AND
NE PA. SHEAR INCREASES TO 30 KTS DESPITE THE LIGHT LOW LEVELS AND
NOT MUCH OF A LLJ. THIS IS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM WHAT THE MODELS
SHOWED YESTERDAY. SPC HAS GONE TO A SEE TEXT AND A 5 PERCENT CHC
OF DAMAGING WINDS TODAY. SOME MODELS ESPECIALLY THE NAM FORMING A
BROKEN LINE OF TSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATES 88 AND
86...ONEONTA...BGM...ELM LINE...WHICH DROPS SE THIS AFTN INTO NE
PA. LARGE HAIL MAY BE HARD TO PRODUCE WITH A STORM MOTION OF 10 TO
15 KTS.

LATE AFTN WITH THE FRONT ON THE COAST AND DIURNAL HEATING WANING
CONVECTION WILL DIE AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE CWA. A FEW POSSIBLE
SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE THIS EVENING.

NW FLOW OF DRY AIR WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES AND DROP TEMPS INTO
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE AND BE CENTERED OVER
THE CWA 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THE LL WINDS WILL BE NORTH SO DESPITE
THE +7C 850MB TEMPS CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOIST AIR WILL BE UNDER 5K FT AND THE
INVERSION WITH DRY AIR ABOVE IT. FRIDAY INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AND
WARMER. CLOSE TO NORMALS.

FRI NGT DEEP SW FLOW BRINGING IN WARMER AIR AND EVENTUALLY
MOISTURE. LATE THERE COULD BE A SHOWER IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE
BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE IS. KEPT THE SCHC POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2PM TUESDAY UPDATE...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS SUGGESTS SOME SHRA WORK INTO C NY WITH THE
EURO AND CMC SHOWING SOME PRECIP N OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
WENT WITH HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S FORECASTS AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC
SHRA FRI NGT. SAT THRU SUNDAY HAVE CHC POPS SHRA AND TSRA AS FRNT
PRESSES EWRD INTO THE ERN LAKES AND SRLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WORK INTO NY AND PA. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY ON
SAT THAN SUNDAY WHEN THE FRNT WILL BE CLOSER AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT LINGERING SHRA AND SOME TSRA
EVEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND SOME SORT
OF SRN BRANCH WAVE MOVES N ALONG THE FRNT. DETAILS THIS FAR OUT
ARE NOT ENUF FOR ANY KIND OF DETAILED TIMING SO WILL CONT WITH A
BLEND OF HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S POPS WHICH IS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TO START AND WILL
CREEP TO ABV NORMAL BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
645 AM DISCUSSION...
SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS TRAVERSED THE FINGER LAKES AND SKIRTED THE
KSYR TERMINAL IN THE LAST HOUR. VFR ACROSS THE BOARD SO FAR, WITH
KSYR CEILING DROPPING TO 3200 FEET WITH THE SHOWER PASSAGE.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE RADAR COVERAGE UPSTREAM, BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT ONCE INSTABILITY INCREASES. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THUNDER FOR ANY OF
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. NONE OF OUR SITES ARE WITHIN CCFP
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS.

LOOK FOR SW WINDS TODAY AT 6 TO 9 KNOTS, AND A SCATTERED VFR CU DECK
DURING THE AFTERNOON.


2 AM DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE, AND THEN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. A THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY SHOWER
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS, BUT PROBABILTY FOR SUCH AN EVENT
IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 9 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT-SUN...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 271048
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK, AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO PUSHING SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS STARTING
TO FORM ON THE SOUTH SHORE. VALLEY FOG HAS MANAGED TO FORM AGAIN
IN NE PA AND THE SRN CATSKILLS. THIS SHOULD BE MINIMAL BY 8 AM
WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS.

COLD FRONT PROVIDING A BOUNDARY FOR CONVERGENCE WHILE ALOFT LAPSE
RATES INCREASE WITH THE COLDER AIR. SFC DEWPTS INCREASE INTO THE
M60S. CAPES JUMP TO 1K MIDDAY ACROSS THE SRN TIER, CATSKILLS AND
NE PA. SHEAR INCREASES TO 30 KTS DESPITE THE LIGHT LOW LEVELS AND
NOT MUCH OF A LLJ. THIS IS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM WHAT THE MODELS
SHOWED YESTERDAY. SPC HAS GONE TO A SEE TEXT AND A 5 PERCENT CHC
OF DAMAGING WINDS TODAY. SOME MODELS ESPECIALLY THE NAM FORMING A
BROKEN LINE OF TSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATES 88 AND
86...ONEONTA...BGM...ELM LINE...WHICH DROPS SE THIS AFTN INTO NE
PA. LARGE HAIL MAY BE HARD TO PRODUCE WITH A STORM MOTION OF 10 TO
15 KTS.

LATE AFTN WITH THE FRONT ON THE COAST AND DIURNAL HEATING WANING
CONVECTION WILL DIE AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE CWA. A FEW POSSIBLE
SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE THIS EVENING.

NW FLOW OF DRY AIR WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES AND DROP TEMPS INTO
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE AND BE CENTERED OVER
THE CWA 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THE LL WINDS WILL BE NORTH SO DESPITE
THE +7C 850MB TEMPS CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOIST AIR WILL BE UNDER 5K FT AND THE
INVERSION WITH DRY AIR ABOVE IT. FRIDAY INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AND
WARMER. CLOSE TO NORMALS.

FRI NGT DEEP SW FLOW BRINGING IN WARMER AIR AND EVENTUALLY
MOISTURE. LATE THERE COULD BE A SHOWER IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE
BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE IS. KEPT THE SCHC POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2PM TUESDAY UPDATE...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS SUGGESTS SOME SHRA WORK INTO C NY WITH THE
EURO AND CMC SHOWING SOME PRECIP N OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
WENT WITH HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S FORECASTS AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC
SHRA FRI NGT. SAT THRU SUNDAY HAVE CHC POPS SHRA AND TSRA AS FRNT
PRESSES EWRD INTO THE ERN LAKES AND SRLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WORK INTO NY AND PA. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY ON
SAT THAN SUNDAY WHEN THE FRNT WILL BE CLOSER AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT LINGERING SHRA AND SOME TSRA
EVEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND SOME SORT
OF SRN BRANCH WAVE MOVES N ALONG THE FRNT. DETAILS THIS FAR OUT
ARE NOT ENUF FOR ANY KIND OF DETAILED TIMING SO WILL CONT WITH A
BLEND OF HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S POPS WHICH IS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TO START AND WILL
CREEP TO ABV NORMAL BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
645 AM DISCUSSION...
SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS TRAVERSED THE FINGER LAKES AND SKIRTED THE
KSYR TERMINAL IN THE LAST HOUR. VFR ACROSS THE BOARD SO FAR, WITH
KSYR CEILING DROPPING TO 3200 FEET WITH THE SHOWER PASSAGE.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE RADAR COVERAGE UPSTREAM, BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT ONCE INSTABILITY INCREASES. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THUNDER FOR ANY OF
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. NONE OF OUR SITES ARE WITHIN CCFP
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS.

LOOK FOR SW WINDS TODAY AT 6 TO 9 KNOTS, AND A SCATTERED VFR CU DECK
DURING THE AFTERNOON.


2 AM DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE, AND THEN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. A THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY SHOWER
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS, BUT PROBABILTY FOR SUCH AN EVENT
IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 9 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT-SUN...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 271048
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK, AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO PUSHING SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS STARTING
TO FORM ON THE SOUTH SHORE. VALLEY FOG HAS MANAGED TO FORM AGAIN
IN NE PA AND THE SRN CATSKILLS. THIS SHOULD BE MINIMAL BY 8 AM
WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS.

COLD FRONT PROVIDING A BOUNDARY FOR CONVERGENCE WHILE ALOFT LAPSE
RATES INCREASE WITH THE COLDER AIR. SFC DEWPTS INCREASE INTO THE
M60S. CAPES JUMP TO 1K MIDDAY ACROSS THE SRN TIER, CATSKILLS AND
NE PA. SHEAR INCREASES TO 30 KTS DESPITE THE LIGHT LOW LEVELS AND
NOT MUCH OF A LLJ. THIS IS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM WHAT THE MODELS
SHOWED YESTERDAY. SPC HAS GONE TO A SEE TEXT AND A 5 PERCENT CHC
OF DAMAGING WINDS TODAY. SOME MODELS ESPECIALLY THE NAM FORMING A
BROKEN LINE OF TSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATES 88 AND
86...ONEONTA...BGM...ELM LINE...WHICH DROPS SE THIS AFTN INTO NE
PA. LARGE HAIL MAY BE HARD TO PRODUCE WITH A STORM MOTION OF 10 TO
15 KTS.

LATE AFTN WITH THE FRONT ON THE COAST AND DIURNAL HEATING WANING
CONVECTION WILL DIE AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE CWA. A FEW POSSIBLE
SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE THIS EVENING.

NW FLOW OF DRY AIR WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES AND DROP TEMPS INTO
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE AND BE CENTERED OVER
THE CWA 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THE LL WINDS WILL BE NORTH SO DESPITE
THE +7C 850MB TEMPS CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOIST AIR WILL BE UNDER 5K FT AND THE
INVERSION WITH DRY AIR ABOVE IT. FRIDAY INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AND
WARMER. CLOSE TO NORMALS.

FRI NGT DEEP SW FLOW BRINGING IN WARMER AIR AND EVENTUALLY
MOISTURE. LATE THERE COULD BE A SHOWER IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE
BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE IS. KEPT THE SCHC POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2PM TUESDAY UPDATE...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS SUGGESTS SOME SHRA WORK INTO C NY WITH THE
EURO AND CMC SHOWING SOME PRECIP N OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
WENT WITH HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S FORECASTS AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC
SHRA FRI NGT. SAT THRU SUNDAY HAVE CHC POPS SHRA AND TSRA AS FRNT
PRESSES EWRD INTO THE ERN LAKES AND SRLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WORK INTO NY AND PA. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY ON
SAT THAN SUNDAY WHEN THE FRNT WILL BE CLOSER AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT LINGERING SHRA AND SOME TSRA
EVEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND SOME SORT
OF SRN BRANCH WAVE MOVES N ALONG THE FRNT. DETAILS THIS FAR OUT
ARE NOT ENUF FOR ANY KIND OF DETAILED TIMING SO WILL CONT WITH A
BLEND OF HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S POPS WHICH IS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TO START AND WILL
CREEP TO ABV NORMAL BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
645 AM DISCUSSION...
SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS TRAVERSED THE FINGER LAKES AND SKIRTED THE
KSYR TERMINAL IN THE LAST HOUR. VFR ACROSS THE BOARD SO FAR, WITH
KSYR CEILING DROPPING TO 3200 FEET WITH THE SHOWER PASSAGE.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE RADAR COVERAGE UPSTREAM, BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT ONCE INSTABILITY INCREASES. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THUNDER FOR ANY OF
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. NONE OF OUR SITES ARE WITHIN CCFP
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS.

LOOK FOR SW WINDS TODAY AT 6 TO 9 KNOTS, AND A SCATTERED VFR CU DECK
DURING THE AFTERNOON.


2 AM DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE, AND THEN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. A THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY SHOWER
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS, BUT PROBABILTY FOR SUCH AN EVENT
IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 9 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT-SUN...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 270747
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
347 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK, AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO PUSHING SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS STARTING
TO FORM ON THE SOUTH SHORE. VALLEY FOG HAS MANAGED TO FORM AGAIN
IN NE PA AND THE SRN CATSKILLS. THIS SHOULD BE MINIMAL BY 8 AM
WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS.

COLD FRONT PROVIDING A BOUNDARY FOR CONVERGENCE WHILE ALOFT LAPSE
RATES INCREASE WITH THE COLDER AIR. SFC DEWPTS INCREASE INTO THE
M60S. CAPES JUMP TO 1K MIDDAY ACROSS THE SRN TIER, CATSKILLS AND
NE PA. SHEAR INCREASES TO 30 KTS DESPITE THE LIGHT LOW LEVELS AND
NOT MUCH OF A LLJ. THIS IS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM WHAT THE MODELS
SHOWED YESTERDAY. SPC HAS GONE TO A SEE TEXT AND A 5 PERCENT CHC
OF DAMAGING WINDS TODAY. SOME MODELS ESPECIALLY THE NAM FORMING A
BROKEN LINE OF TSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATES 88 AND
86...ONEONTA...BGM...ELM LINE...WHICH DROPS SE THIS AFTN INTO NE
PA. LARGE HAIL MAY BE HARD TO PRODUCE WITH A STORM MOTION OF 10 TO
15 KTS.

LATE AFTN WITH THE FRONT ON THE COAST AND DIURNAL HEATING WANING
CONVECTION WILL DIE AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE CWA. A FEW POSSIBLE
SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE THIS EVENING.

NW FLOW OF DRY AIR WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES AND DROP TEMPS INTO
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE AND BE CENTERED OVER
THE CWA 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THE LL WINDS WILL BE NORTH SO DESPITE
THE +7C 850MB TEMPS CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOIST AIR WILL BE UNDER 5K FT AND THE
INVERSION WITH DRY AIR ABOVE IT. FRIDAY INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AND
WARMER. CLOSE TO NORMALS.

FRI NGT DEEP SW FLOW BRINGING IN WARMER AIR AND EVENTUALLY
MOISTURE. LATE THERE COULD BE A SHOWER IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE
BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE IS. KEPT THE SCHC POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2PM TUESDAY UPDATE...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS SUGGESTS SOME SHRA WORK INTO C NY WITH THE
EURO AND CMC SHOWING SOME PRECIP N OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
WENT WITH HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S FORECASTS AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC
SHRA FRI NGT. SAT THRU SUNDAY HAVE CHC POPS SHRA AND TSRA AS FRNT
PRESSES EWRD INTO THE ERN LAKES AND SRLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WORK INTO NY AND PA. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY ON
SAT THAN SUNDAY WHEN THE FRNT WILL BE CLOSER AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT LINGERING SHRA AND SOME TSRA
EVEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND SOME SORT
OF SRN BRANCH WAVE MOVES N ALONG THE FRNT. DETAILS THIS FAR OUT
ARE NOT ENUF FOR ANY KIND OF DETAILED TIMING SO WILL CONT WITH A
BLEND OF HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S POPS WHICH IS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TO START AND WILL
CREEP TO ABV NORMAL BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE, AND THEN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. A THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY SHOWER
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS, BUT PROBABILTY FOR SUCH AN EVENT
IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 9 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT-SUN...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 270747
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
347 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK, AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO PUSHING SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS STARTING
TO FORM ON THE SOUTH SHORE. VALLEY FOG HAS MANAGED TO FORM AGAIN
IN NE PA AND THE SRN CATSKILLS. THIS SHOULD BE MINIMAL BY 8 AM
WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS.

COLD FRONT PROVIDING A BOUNDARY FOR CONVERGENCE WHILE ALOFT LAPSE
RATES INCREASE WITH THE COLDER AIR. SFC DEWPTS INCREASE INTO THE
M60S. CAPES JUMP TO 1K MIDDAY ACROSS THE SRN TIER, CATSKILLS AND
NE PA. SHEAR INCREASES TO 30 KTS DESPITE THE LIGHT LOW LEVELS AND
NOT MUCH OF A LLJ. THIS IS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM WHAT THE MODELS
SHOWED YESTERDAY. SPC HAS GONE TO A SEE TEXT AND A 5 PERCENT CHC
OF DAMAGING WINDS TODAY. SOME MODELS ESPECIALLY THE NAM FORMING A
BROKEN LINE OF TSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATES 88 AND
86...ONEONTA...BGM...ELM LINE...WHICH DROPS SE THIS AFTN INTO NE
PA. LARGE HAIL MAY BE HARD TO PRODUCE WITH A STORM MOTION OF 10 TO
15 KTS.

LATE AFTN WITH THE FRONT ON THE COAST AND DIURNAL HEATING WANING
CONVECTION WILL DIE AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE CWA. A FEW POSSIBLE
SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE THIS EVENING.

NW FLOW OF DRY AIR WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES AND DROP TEMPS INTO
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE AND BE CENTERED OVER
THE CWA 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THE LL WINDS WILL BE NORTH SO DESPITE
THE +7C 850MB TEMPS CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOIST AIR WILL BE UNDER 5K FT AND THE
INVERSION WITH DRY AIR ABOVE IT. FRIDAY INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AND
WARMER. CLOSE TO NORMALS.

FRI NGT DEEP SW FLOW BRINGING IN WARMER AIR AND EVENTUALLY
MOISTURE. LATE THERE COULD BE A SHOWER IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE
BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE IS. KEPT THE SCHC POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2PM TUESDAY UPDATE...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS SUGGESTS SOME SHRA WORK INTO C NY WITH THE
EURO AND CMC SHOWING SOME PRECIP N OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
WENT WITH HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S FORECASTS AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC
SHRA FRI NGT. SAT THRU SUNDAY HAVE CHC POPS SHRA AND TSRA AS FRNT
PRESSES EWRD INTO THE ERN LAKES AND SRLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WORK INTO NY AND PA. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY ON
SAT THAN SUNDAY WHEN THE FRNT WILL BE CLOSER AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT LINGERING SHRA AND SOME TSRA
EVEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND SOME SORT
OF SRN BRANCH WAVE MOVES N ALONG THE FRNT. DETAILS THIS FAR OUT
ARE NOT ENUF FOR ANY KIND OF DETAILED TIMING SO WILL CONT WITH A
BLEND OF HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S POPS WHICH IS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TO START AND WILL
CREEP TO ABV NORMAL BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE, AND THEN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. A THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY SHOWER
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS, BUT PROBABILTY FOR SUCH AN EVENT
IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 9 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT-SUN...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 270512
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
112 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFF
THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
620 PM UPDATE...SKC ACRS THE RGN WITH SCT TSRA DVLPNG OVER LOWER
ONTARIO AND A CLUSTER WORKING EWD TWSD LAKE ERIE. NICE AXIS OF
LOWER 70S TD`S ACRS THIS AREA. IT APPEARS A PREFNTL TROF WILL
WORK INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND WRN MOHAWK VLY LATER
TNGT...ACCOMPANIED BY INCRSNG LOW LVL MSTR...AND WE COULD SEE A
FEW SHRA/TSRA AFTER 06Z AS THIS BNDRY WORKS INTO THE AREA. GIVEN
THESE TRENDS...WE SPED UP POPS BY A FEW HRS ACRS NRN ZONES LATE.
PREV BLO...

3 PM UPDATE... ANOTHER NICE LATE AFTN ACRS CNY/NE PA...WITH SUNNY
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND TEMPS IN THE UPR 70S-MID 80S. THIS WILL
LEAD INTO A MAINLY CLEAR EVENING...WITH SAT IMAGERY DEPICTING MORE
SIG MOISTURE STILL WELL UPSTREAM OVER SRN ONT.

OVERNIGHT (AFTER 06Z)...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE N
AND W. SAT IMAGERY HAS DEPICTED MOST OF THE CLOUD DEBRIS
(INCLUDING SOME LWR CIGS) NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THIS FEATURE OVER
THE LAST 24 HRS OR SO. THUS...WE BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO
NRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK...WITH SOME ISOLD-SCTD
SHWRS MENTIONED AS WELL. JUST PTLY CLDY CONDS AT WORST ARE
FORESEEN FARTHER S AND E. TWIN TIER VLY FOG IS A TRICKY
CALL...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER FLOW PROGGED JUST OFF THE DECK
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEW PT AMS SHOULD ALSO BE
COMING IN. FOR NOW...WE`VE LEFT THE MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 PM UPDATE... WED IS LOOKING A BIT MORE INTERESTING...WITH
SOME OF OUR SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE NOW PICKING UP ON THE LIKELIHOOD
THAT A FAIRLY HIGH DEW PT AMS WILL COME INTO THE CWA...JUST AHD
OF AND ALG THE COLD FRNT. SFC DEW PTS FROM CNTRL/NRN IL NEWD ACRS
NRN IN/LWR MI/NWRN OH/SRN ONT THIS AFTN ARE IN THE UPR 60S-MID
70S RANGE. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF SIMILAR VALUES ACRS NY`S SRN
TIER AND NE PA TMRW AFTN...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE AHD OF
ANY FRNTL CLOUD BAND. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH IN THIS REGARD
(1500-2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE...WITH THE GFS A BIT LESS (1000-1500
J/KG ACRS NE PA)). EITHER WAY...WITH PROGGED 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE...AND SOME MID TO UPR-LVL FORCING...ISOLD
SVR STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THUS...WE`VE HIGHLIGHTED
THIS PSBLTY IN THE HWO. AT THIS JUNCTURE...WE`VE KEPT POPS IN THE
ISOLD-SCTD RANGE.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT OUR SERN ZNS WED
EVE...WITH A MUCH LWR THETA-E AMS ENTERING BEHIND IT. AS HIGH
PRES AT THE SFC AND S/WV RIDGING ALOFT BUILD IN THU AND
FRI...VERY PLEASANT LATE SUMMER DAYS ARE EXPECTED...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS SUGGESTS SOME SHRA WORK INTO C NY WITH THE
EURO AND CMC SHOWING SOME PRECIP N OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
WENT WITH HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S FORECASTS AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC
SHRA FRI NGT. SAT THRU SUNDAY HAVE CHC POPS SHRA AND TSRA AS FRNT
PRESSES EWRD INTO THE ERN LAKES AND SRLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WORK INTO NY AND PA. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY ON
SAT THAN SUNDAY WHEN THE FRNT WILL BE CLOSER AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT LINGERING SHRA AND SOME TSRA
EVEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND SOME SORT
OF SRN BRANCH WAVE MOVES N ALONG THE FRNT. DETAILS THIS FAR OUT
ARE NOT ENUF FOR ANY KIND OF DETAILED TIMING SO WILL CONT WITH A
BLEND OF HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S POPS WHICH IS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TO START AND WILL
CREEP TO ABV NORMAL BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE, AND THEN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. A THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY SHOWER
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS, BUT PROBABILTY FOR SUCH AN EVENT
IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 9 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT-SUN...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 270512
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
112 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFF
THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
620 PM UPDATE...SKC ACRS THE RGN WITH SCT TSRA DVLPNG OVER LOWER
ONTARIO AND A CLUSTER WORKING EWD TWSD LAKE ERIE. NICE AXIS OF
LOWER 70S TD`S ACRS THIS AREA. IT APPEARS A PREFNTL TROF WILL
WORK INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND WRN MOHAWK VLY LATER
TNGT...ACCOMPANIED BY INCRSNG LOW LVL MSTR...AND WE COULD SEE A
FEW SHRA/TSRA AFTER 06Z AS THIS BNDRY WORKS INTO THE AREA. GIVEN
THESE TRENDS...WE SPED UP POPS BY A FEW HRS ACRS NRN ZONES LATE.
PREV BLO...

3 PM UPDATE... ANOTHER NICE LATE AFTN ACRS CNY/NE PA...WITH SUNNY
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND TEMPS IN THE UPR 70S-MID 80S. THIS WILL
LEAD INTO A MAINLY CLEAR EVENING...WITH SAT IMAGERY DEPICTING MORE
SIG MOISTURE STILL WELL UPSTREAM OVER SRN ONT.

OVERNIGHT (AFTER 06Z)...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE N
AND W. SAT IMAGERY HAS DEPICTED MOST OF THE CLOUD DEBRIS
(INCLUDING SOME LWR CIGS) NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THIS FEATURE OVER
THE LAST 24 HRS OR SO. THUS...WE BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO
NRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK...WITH SOME ISOLD-SCTD
SHWRS MENTIONED AS WELL. JUST PTLY CLDY CONDS AT WORST ARE
FORESEEN FARTHER S AND E. TWIN TIER VLY FOG IS A TRICKY
CALL...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER FLOW PROGGED JUST OFF THE DECK
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEW PT AMS SHOULD ALSO BE
COMING IN. FOR NOW...WE`VE LEFT THE MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 PM UPDATE... WED IS LOOKING A BIT MORE INTERESTING...WITH
SOME OF OUR SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE NOW PICKING UP ON THE LIKELIHOOD
THAT A FAIRLY HIGH DEW PT AMS WILL COME INTO THE CWA...JUST AHD
OF AND ALG THE COLD FRNT. SFC DEW PTS FROM CNTRL/NRN IL NEWD ACRS
NRN IN/LWR MI/NWRN OH/SRN ONT THIS AFTN ARE IN THE UPR 60S-MID
70S RANGE. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF SIMILAR VALUES ACRS NY`S SRN
TIER AND NE PA TMRW AFTN...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE AHD OF
ANY FRNTL CLOUD BAND. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH IN THIS REGARD
(1500-2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE...WITH THE GFS A BIT LESS (1000-1500
J/KG ACRS NE PA)). EITHER WAY...WITH PROGGED 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE...AND SOME MID TO UPR-LVL FORCING...ISOLD
SVR STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THUS...WE`VE HIGHLIGHTED
THIS PSBLTY IN THE HWO. AT THIS JUNCTURE...WE`VE KEPT POPS IN THE
ISOLD-SCTD RANGE.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT OUR SERN ZNS WED
EVE...WITH A MUCH LWR THETA-E AMS ENTERING BEHIND IT. AS HIGH
PRES AT THE SFC AND S/WV RIDGING ALOFT BUILD IN THU AND
FRI...VERY PLEASANT LATE SUMMER DAYS ARE EXPECTED...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS SUGGESTS SOME SHRA WORK INTO C NY WITH THE
EURO AND CMC SHOWING SOME PRECIP N OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
WENT WITH HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S FORECASTS AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC
SHRA FRI NGT. SAT THRU SUNDAY HAVE CHC POPS SHRA AND TSRA AS FRNT
PRESSES EWRD INTO THE ERN LAKES AND SRLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WORK INTO NY AND PA. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY ON
SAT THAN SUNDAY WHEN THE FRNT WILL BE CLOSER AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT LINGERING SHRA AND SOME TSRA
EVEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND SOME SORT
OF SRN BRANCH WAVE MOVES N ALONG THE FRNT. DETAILS THIS FAR OUT
ARE NOT ENUF FOR ANY KIND OF DETAILED TIMING SO WILL CONT WITH A
BLEND OF HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S POPS WHICH IS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TO START AND WILL
CREEP TO ABV NORMAL BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE, AND THEN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. A THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY SHOWER
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS, BUT PROBABILTY FOR SUCH AN EVENT
IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 9 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT-SUN...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 270008
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
808 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFF
THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
620 PM UPDATE...SKC ACRS THE RGN WITH SCT TSRA DVLPNG OVER LOWER
ONTARIO AND A CLUSTER WORKING EWD TWSD LAKE ERIE. NICE AXIS OF
LOWER 70S TD`S ACRS THIS AREA. IT APPEARS A PREFNTL TROF WILL
WORK INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND WRN MOHAWK VLY LATER
TNGT...ACCOMPANIED BY INCRSNG LOW LVL MSTR...AND WE COULD SEE A
FEW SHRA/TSRA AFTER 06Z AS THIS BNDRY WORKS INTO THE AREA. GIVEN
THESE TRENDS...WE SPED UP POPS BY A FEW HRS ACRS NRN ZONES LATE.
PREV BLO...

3 PM UPDATE... ANOTHER NICE LATE AFTN ACRS CNY/NE PA...WITH SUNNY
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND TEMPS IN THE UPR 70S-MID 80S. THIS WILL
LEAD INTO A MAINLY CLEAR EVENING...WITH SAT IMAGERY DEPICTING MORE
SIG MOISTURE STILL WELL UPSTREAM OVER SRN ONT.

OVERNIGHT (AFTER 06Z)...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE N
AND W. SAT IMAGERY HAS DEPICTED MOST OF THE CLOUD DEBRIS
(INCLUDING SOME LWR CIGS) NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THIS FEATURE OVER
THE LAST 24 HRS OR SO. THUS...WE BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO
NRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK...WITH SOME ISOLD-SCTD
SHWRS MENTIONED AS WELL. JUST PTLY CLDY CONDS AT WORST ARE
FORESEEN FARTHER S AND E. TWIN TIER VLY FOG IS A TRICKY
CALL...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER FLOW PROGGED JUST OFF THE DECK
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEW PT AMS SHOULD ALSO BE
COMING IN. FOR NOW...WE`VE LEFT THE MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 PM UPDATE... WED IS LOOKING A BIT MORE INTERESTING...WITH
SOME OF OUR SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE NOW PICKING UP ON THE LIKELIHOOD
THAT A FAIRLY HIGH DEW PT AMS WILL COME INTO THE CWA...JUST AHD
OF AND ALG THE COLD FRNT. SFC DEW PTS FROM CNTRL/NRN IL NEWD ACRS
NRN IN/LWR MI/NWRN OH/SRN ONT THIS AFTN ARE IN THE UPR 60S-MID
70S RANGE. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF SIMILAR VALUES ACRS NY`S SRN
TIER AND NE PA TMRW AFTN...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE AHD OF
ANY FRNTL CLOUD BAND. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH IN THIS REGARD
(1500-2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE...WITH THE GFS A BIT LESS (1000-1500
J/KG ACRS NE PA)). EITHER WAY...WITH PROGGED 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE...AND SOME MID TO UPR-LVL FORCING...ISOLD
SVR STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THUS...WE`VE HIGHLIGHTED
THIS PSBLTY IN THE HWO. AT THIS JUNCTURE...WE`VE KEPT POPS IN THE
ISOLD-SCTD RANGE.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT OUR SERN ZNS WED
EVE...WITH A MUCH LWR THETA-E AMS ENTERING BEHIND IT. AS HIGH
PRES AT THE SFC AND S/WV RIDGING ALOFT BUILD IN THU AND
FRI...VERY PLEASANT LATE SUMMER DAYS ARE EXPECTED...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS SUGGESTS SOME SHRA WORK INTO C NY WITH THE
EURO AND CMC SHOWING SOME PRECIP N OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
WENT WITH HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S FORECASTS AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC
SHRA FRI NGT. SAT THRU SUNDAY HAVE CHC POPS SHRA AND TSRA AS FRNT
PRESSES EWRD INTO THE ERN LAKES AND SRLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WORK INTO NY AND PA. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY ON
SAT THAN SUNDAY WHEN THE FRNT WILL BE CLOSER AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT LINGERING SHRA AND SOME TSRA
EVEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND SOME SORT
OF SRN BRANCH WAVE MOVES N ALONG THE FRNT. DETAILS THIS FAR OUT
ARE NOT ENUF FOR ANY KIND OF DETAILED TIMING SO WILL CONT WITH A
BLEND OF HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S POPS WHICH IS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TO START AND WILL
CREEP TO ABV NORMAL BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
QUIET AND VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AND THEN THE COLD FRONT ITSELF ARE ENROUTE.
VARIABLE TO LIGHT SSW WINDS THIS EVENING...WILL VEER WSW-W AS PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH COMES THROUGH 07Z-11Z TIME FRAME...ALONG WITH
DEVELOPING MVFR CIG FOR MANY TERMINALS. SCT SHRA ALSO EXPECTED
WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH KITH-KSYR-KRME...AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO INSTABILITY ALOFT. ALSO
PROBABLY FUEL ALT REQ LEVELS FOR A TIME KRME-KITH...BRIEF IFR NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. FRONT ITSELF WILL THEN COME THROUGH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH DEVELOPING SHRA-TSRA AS IT HEADS FROM TWIN
TIERS TO NEPA. CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT TO INCLUDE
A PROB30 GROUP AT KAVP...BUT ONLY KEPT IT SHRA FOR NOW KBGM-KELM
AS THOSE TERMINALS WILL BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE AS ACTIVITY FORMS AND
EXITS. WINDS BEHIND FRONT VEER FURTHER...TO NW 6-10 KTS...WITH
MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIG.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT-SUN...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 262228
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
628 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFF
THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
620 PM UPDATE...SKC ACRS THE RGN WITH SCT TSRA DVLPNG OVER LOWER
ONTARIO AND A CLUSTER WORKING EWD TWSD LAKE ERIE. NICE AXIS OF
LOWER 70S TD`S ACRS THIS AREA. IT APPEARS A PREFNTL TROF WILL
WORK INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND WRN MOHAWK VLY LATER
TNGT...ACCOMPANIED BY INCRSNG LOW LVL MSTR...AND WE COULD SEE A
FEW SHRA/TSRA AFTER 06Z AS THIS BNDRY WORKS INTO THE AREA. GIVEN
THESE TRENDS...WE SPED UP POPS BY A FEW HRS ACRS NRN ZONES LATE.
PREV BLO...

3 PM UPDATE... ANOTHER NICE LATE AFTN ACRS CNY/NE PA...WITH SUNNY
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND TEMPS IN THE UPR 70S-MID 80S. THIS WILL
LEAD INTO A MAINLY CLEAR EVENING...WITH SAT IMAGERY DEPICTING MORE
SIG MOISTURE STILL WELL UPSTREAM OVER SRN ONT.

OVERNIGHT (AFTER 06Z)...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE N
AND W. SAT IMAGERY HAS DEPICTED MOST OF THE CLOUD DEBRIS
(INCLUDING SOME LWR CIGS) NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THIS FEATURE OVER
THE LAST 24 HRS OR SO. THUS...WE BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO
NRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK...WITH SOME ISOLD-SCTD
SHWRS MENTIONED AS WELL. JUST PTLY CLDY CONDS AT WORST ARE
FORESEEN FARTHER S AND E. TWIN TIER VLY FOG IS A TRICKY
CALL...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER FLOW PROGGED JUST OFF THE DECK
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEW PT AMS SHOULD ALSO BE
COMING IN. FOR NOW...WE`VE LEFT THE MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 PM UPDATE... WED IS LOOKING A BIT MORE INTERESTING...WITH
SOME OF OUR SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE NOW PICKING UP ON THE LIKELIHOOD
THAT A FAIRLY HIGH DEW PT AMS WILL COME INTO THE CWA...JUST AHD
OF AND ALG THE COLD FRNT. SFC DEW PTS FROM CNTRL/NRN IL NEWD ACRS
NRN IN/LWR MI/NWRN OH/SRN ONT THIS AFTN ARE IN THE UPR 60S-MID
70S RANGE. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF SIMILAR VALUES ACRS NY`S SRN
TIER AND NE PA TMRW AFTN...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE AHD OF
ANY FRNTL CLOUD BAND. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH IN THIS REGARD
(1500-2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE...WITH THE GFS A BIT LESS (1000-1500
J/KG ACRS NE PA)). EITHER WAY...WITH PROGGED 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE...AND SOME MID TO UPR-LVL FORCING...ISOLD
SVR STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THUS...WE`VE HIGHLIGHTED
THIS PSBLTY IN THE HWO. AT THIS JUNCTURE...WE`VE KEPT POPS IN THE
ISOLD-SCTD RANGE.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT OUR SERN ZNS WED
EVE...WITH A MUCH LWR THETA-E AMS ENTERING BEHIND IT. AS HIGH
PRES AT THE SFC AND S/WV RIDGING ALOFT BUILD IN THU AND
FRI...VERY PLEASANT LATE SUMMER DAYS ARE EXPECTED...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS SUGGESTS SOME SHRA WORK INTO C NY WITH THE
EURO AND CMC SHOWING SOME PRECIP N OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
WENT WITH HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S FORECASTS AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC
SHRA FRI NGT. SAT THRU SUNDAY HAVE CHC POPS SHRA AND TSRA AS FRNT
PRESSES EWRD INTO THE ERN LAKES AND SRLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WORK INTO NY AND PA. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY ON
SAT THAN SUNDAY WHEN THE FRNT WILL BE CLOSER AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT LINGERING SHRA AND SOME TSRA
EVEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND SOME SORT
OF SRN BRANCH WAVE MOVES N ALONG THE FRNT. DETAILS THIS FAR OUT
ARE NOT ENUF FOR ANY KIND OF DETAILED TIMING SO WILL CONT WITH A
BLEND OF HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S POPS WHICH IS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TO START AND WILL
CREEP TO ABV NORMAL BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR WITH JUST A FEW CU AND THIN CIRRUS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. I EXPECT MORE MID AND HIGHER CLDS OVERNIGHT
BUT STILL VFR. CD FRNT WILL PUSH INTO SC NY LATE TONIGHT. I SEE AT
LEAST MVFR CIG WITH A FEW SHRA AT KRME...KSYR AND KITH BEGINNING
BETWEEN 9 AND 11Z AND LASTING MOST OF THE MORNING. KELM AND KBGM
WILL SEE SOME LOWER CLDS IN THE MORNING BUT THE DAY/S HEATING
LIKELY KEEP CIGS FROM DROPPING TO MVFR. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT ON THE EXTENT AND HOW FAR SOUTH ANY LOWER
SC SHIELD MAKES IT BEHIND FRNT. IN ADDTN...IFR IS PSBL BEHIND FRNT
ESP KRME...KSYR AND EVEN KITH.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH ARND 10 KNOTS GUST TO 15-20 KNOTS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIGHT SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WRLY AFTER 12-14Z WED.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT AND SUN...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 262228
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
628 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFF
THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
620 PM UPDATE...SKC ACRS THE RGN WITH SCT TSRA DVLPNG OVER LOWER
ONTARIO AND A CLUSTER WORKING EWD TWSD LAKE ERIE. NICE AXIS OF
LOWER 70S TD`S ACRS THIS AREA. IT APPEARS A PREFNTL TROF WILL
WORK INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND WRN MOHAWK VLY LATER
TNGT...ACCOMPANIED BY INCRSNG LOW LVL MSTR...AND WE COULD SEE A
FEW SHRA/TSRA AFTER 06Z AS THIS BNDRY WORKS INTO THE AREA. GIVEN
THESE TRENDS...WE SPED UP POPS BY A FEW HRS ACRS NRN ZONES LATE.
PREV BLO...

3 PM UPDATE... ANOTHER NICE LATE AFTN ACRS CNY/NE PA...WITH SUNNY
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND TEMPS IN THE UPR 70S-MID 80S. THIS WILL
LEAD INTO A MAINLY CLEAR EVENING...WITH SAT IMAGERY DEPICTING MORE
SIG MOISTURE STILL WELL UPSTREAM OVER SRN ONT.

OVERNIGHT (AFTER 06Z)...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE N
AND W. SAT IMAGERY HAS DEPICTED MOST OF THE CLOUD DEBRIS
(INCLUDING SOME LWR CIGS) NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THIS FEATURE OVER
THE LAST 24 HRS OR SO. THUS...WE BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO
NRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK...WITH SOME ISOLD-SCTD
SHWRS MENTIONED AS WELL. JUST PTLY CLDY CONDS AT WORST ARE
FORESEEN FARTHER S AND E. TWIN TIER VLY FOG IS A TRICKY
CALL...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER FLOW PROGGED JUST OFF THE DECK
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEW PT AMS SHOULD ALSO BE
COMING IN. FOR NOW...WE`VE LEFT THE MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 PM UPDATE... WED IS LOOKING A BIT MORE INTERESTING...WITH
SOME OF OUR SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE NOW PICKING UP ON THE LIKELIHOOD
THAT A FAIRLY HIGH DEW PT AMS WILL COME INTO THE CWA...JUST AHD
OF AND ALG THE COLD FRNT. SFC DEW PTS FROM CNTRL/NRN IL NEWD ACRS
NRN IN/LWR MI/NWRN OH/SRN ONT THIS AFTN ARE IN THE UPR 60S-MID
70S RANGE. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF SIMILAR VALUES ACRS NY`S SRN
TIER AND NE PA TMRW AFTN...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE AHD OF
ANY FRNTL CLOUD BAND. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH IN THIS REGARD
(1500-2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE...WITH THE GFS A BIT LESS (1000-1500
J/KG ACRS NE PA)). EITHER WAY...WITH PROGGED 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE...AND SOME MID TO UPR-LVL FORCING...ISOLD
SVR STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THUS...WE`VE HIGHLIGHTED
THIS PSBLTY IN THE HWO. AT THIS JUNCTURE...WE`VE KEPT POPS IN THE
ISOLD-SCTD RANGE.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT OUR SERN ZNS WED
EVE...WITH A MUCH LWR THETA-E AMS ENTERING BEHIND IT. AS HIGH
PRES AT THE SFC AND S/WV RIDGING ALOFT BUILD IN THU AND
FRI...VERY PLEASANT LATE SUMMER DAYS ARE EXPECTED...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS SUGGESTS SOME SHRA WORK INTO C NY WITH THE
EURO AND CMC SHOWING SOME PRECIP N OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
WENT WITH HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S FORECASTS AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC
SHRA FRI NGT. SAT THRU SUNDAY HAVE CHC POPS SHRA AND TSRA AS FRNT
PRESSES EWRD INTO THE ERN LAKES AND SRLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WORK INTO NY AND PA. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY ON
SAT THAN SUNDAY WHEN THE FRNT WILL BE CLOSER AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT LINGERING SHRA AND SOME TSRA
EVEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND SOME SORT
OF SRN BRANCH WAVE MOVES N ALONG THE FRNT. DETAILS THIS FAR OUT
ARE NOT ENUF FOR ANY KIND OF DETAILED TIMING SO WILL CONT WITH A
BLEND OF HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S POPS WHICH IS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TO START AND WILL
CREEP TO ABV NORMAL BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR WITH JUST A FEW CU AND THIN CIRRUS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. I EXPECT MORE MID AND HIGHER CLDS OVERNIGHT
BUT STILL VFR. CD FRNT WILL PUSH INTO SC NY LATE TONIGHT. I SEE AT
LEAST MVFR CIG WITH A FEW SHRA AT KRME...KSYR AND KITH BEGINNING
BETWEEN 9 AND 11Z AND LASTING MOST OF THE MORNING. KELM AND KBGM
WILL SEE SOME LOWER CLDS IN THE MORNING BUT THE DAY/S HEATING
LIKELY KEEP CIGS FROM DROPPING TO MVFR. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT ON THE EXTENT AND HOW FAR SOUTH ANY LOWER
SC SHIELD MAKES IT BEHIND FRNT. IN ADDTN...IFR IS PSBL BEHIND FRNT
ESP KRME...KSYR AND EVEN KITH.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH ARND 10 KNOTS GUST TO 15-20 KNOTS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIGHT SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WRLY AFTER 12-14Z WED.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT AND SUN...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 261939
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
339 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFF
THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
3 PM UPDATE... ANOTHER NICE LATE AFTN ACRS CNY/NE PA...WITH SUNNY
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND TEMPS IN THE UPR 70S-MID 80S. THIS WILL
LEAD INTO A MAINLY CLEAR EVENING...WITH SAT IMAGERY DEPICTING MORE
SIG MOISTURE STILL WELL UPSTREAM OVER SRN ONT.

OVERNIGHT (AFTER 06Z)...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE N
AND W. SAT IMAGERY HAS DEPICTED MOST OF THE CLOUD DEBRIS
(INCLUDING SOME LWR CIGS) NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THIS FEATURE OVER
THE LAST 24 HRS OR SO. THUS...WE BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO
NRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK...WITH SOME ISOLD-SCTD
SHWRS MENTIONED AS WELL. JUST PTLY CLDY CONDS AT WORST ARE
FORESEEN FARTHER S AND E. TWIN TIER VLY FOG IS A TRICKY
CALL...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER FLOW PROGGED JUST OFF THE DECK
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEW PT AMS SHOULD ALSO BE
COMING IN. FOR NOW...WE`VE LEFT THE MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 PM UPDATE... WED IS LOOKING A BIT MORE INTERESTING...WITH
SOME OF OUR SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE NOW PICKING UP ON THE LIKELIHOOD
THAT A FAIRLY HIGH DEW PT AMS WILL COME INTO THE CWA...JUST AHD
OF AND ALG THE COLD FRNT. SFC DEW PTS FROM CNTRL/NRN IL NEWD ACRS
NRN IN/LWR MI/NWRN OH/SRN ONT THIS AFTN ARE IN THE UPR 60S-MID
70S RANGE. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF SIMILAR VALUES ACRS NY`S SRN
TIER AND NE PA TMRW AFTN...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE AHD OF
ANY FRNTL CLOUD BAND. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH IN THIS REGARD
(1500-2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE...WITH THE GFS A BIT LESS (1000-1500
J/KG ACRS NE PA)). EITHER WAY...WITH PROGGED 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE...AND SOME MID TO UPR-LVL FORCING...ISOLD
SVR STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THUS...WE`VE HIGHLIGHTED
THIS PSBLTY IN THE HWO. AT THIS JUNCTURE...WE`VE KEPT POPS IN THE
ISOLD-SCTD RANGE.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT OUR SERN ZNS WED
EVE...WITH A MUCH LWR THETA-E AMS ENTERING BEHIND IT. AS HIGH
PRES AT THE SFC AND S/WV RIDGING ALOFT BUILD IN THU AND
FRI...VERY PLEASANT LATE SUMMER DAYS ARE EXPECTED...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS SUGGESTS SOME SHRA WORK INTO C NY WITH THE
EURO AND CMC SHOWING SOME PRECIP N OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
WENT WITH HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S FORECASTS AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC
SHRA FRI NGT. SAT THRU SUNDAY HAVE CHC POPS SHRA AND TSRA AS FRNT
PRESSES EWRD INTO THE ERN LAKES AND SRLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WORK INTO NY AND PA. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY ON
SAT THAN SUNDAY WHEN THE FRNT WILL BE CLOSER AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT LINGERING SHRA AND SOME TSRA
EVEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND SOME SORT
OF SRN BRANCH WAVE MOVES N ALONG THE FRNT. DETAILS THIS FAR OUT
ARE NOT ENUF FOR ANY KIND OF DETAILED TIMING SO WILL CONT WITH A
BLEND OF HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S POPS WHICH IS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TO START AND WILL
CREEP TO ABV NORMAL BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR WITH JUST A FEW CU AND THIN CIRRUS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. I EXPECT MORE MID AND HIGHER CLDS OVERNIGHT
BUT STILL VFR. CD FRNT WILL PUSH INTO SC NY LATE TONIGHT. I SEE AT
LEAST MVFR CIG WITH A FEW SHRA AT KRME...KSYR AND KITH BEGINNING
BETWEEN 9 AND 11Z AND LASTING MOST OF THE MORNING. KELM AND KBGM
WILL SEE SOME LOWER CLDS IN THE MORNING BUT THE DAY/S HEATING
LIKELY KEEP CIGS FROM DROPPING TO MVFR. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT ON THE EXTENT AND HOW FAR SOUTH ANY LOWER
SC SHIELD MAKES IT BEHIND FRNT. IN ADDTN...IFR IS PSBL BEHIND FRNT
ESP KRME...KSYR AND EVEN KITH.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH ARND 10 KNOTS GUST TO 15-20 KNOTS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIGHT SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WRLY AFTER 12-14Z WED.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT AND SUN...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 261939
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
339 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFF
THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
3 PM UPDATE... ANOTHER NICE LATE AFTN ACRS CNY/NE PA...WITH SUNNY
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND TEMPS IN THE UPR 70S-MID 80S. THIS WILL
LEAD INTO A MAINLY CLEAR EVENING...WITH SAT IMAGERY DEPICTING MORE
SIG MOISTURE STILL WELL UPSTREAM OVER SRN ONT.

OVERNIGHT (AFTER 06Z)...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE N
AND W. SAT IMAGERY HAS DEPICTED MOST OF THE CLOUD DEBRIS
(INCLUDING SOME LWR CIGS) NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THIS FEATURE OVER
THE LAST 24 HRS OR SO. THUS...WE BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO
NRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK...WITH SOME ISOLD-SCTD
SHWRS MENTIONED AS WELL. JUST PTLY CLDY CONDS AT WORST ARE
FORESEEN FARTHER S AND E. TWIN TIER VLY FOG IS A TRICKY
CALL...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER FLOW PROGGED JUST OFF THE DECK
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEW PT AMS SHOULD ALSO BE
COMING IN. FOR NOW...WE`VE LEFT THE MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 PM UPDATE... WED IS LOOKING A BIT MORE INTERESTING...WITH
SOME OF OUR SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE NOW PICKING UP ON THE LIKELIHOOD
THAT A FAIRLY HIGH DEW PT AMS WILL COME INTO THE CWA...JUST AHD
OF AND ALG THE COLD FRNT. SFC DEW PTS FROM CNTRL/NRN IL NEWD ACRS
NRN IN/LWR MI/NWRN OH/SRN ONT THIS AFTN ARE IN THE UPR 60S-MID
70S RANGE. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF SIMILAR VALUES ACRS NY`S SRN
TIER AND NE PA TMRW AFTN...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE AHD OF
ANY FRNTL CLOUD BAND. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH IN THIS REGARD
(1500-2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE...WITH THE GFS A BIT LESS (1000-1500
J/KG ACRS NE PA)). EITHER WAY...WITH PROGGED 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE...AND SOME MID TO UPR-LVL FORCING...ISOLD
SVR STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THUS...WE`VE HIGHLIGHTED
THIS PSBLTY IN THE HWO. AT THIS JUNCTURE...WE`VE KEPT POPS IN THE
ISOLD-SCTD RANGE.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT OUR SERN ZNS WED
EVE...WITH A MUCH LWR THETA-E AMS ENTERING BEHIND IT. AS HIGH
PRES AT THE SFC AND S/WV RIDGING ALOFT BUILD IN THU AND
FRI...VERY PLEASANT LATE SUMMER DAYS ARE EXPECTED...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY...AND MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS SUGGESTS SOME SHRA WORK INTO C NY WITH THE
EURO AND CMC SHOWING SOME PRECIP N OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
WENT WITH HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S FORECASTS AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC
SHRA FRI NGT. SAT THRU SUNDAY HAVE CHC POPS SHRA AND TSRA AS FRNT
PRESSES EWRD INTO THE ERN LAKES AND SRLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WORK INTO NY AND PA. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY ON
SAT THAN SUNDAY WHEN THE FRNT WILL BE CLOSER AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT LINGERING SHRA AND SOME TSRA
EVEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND SOME SORT
OF SRN BRANCH WAVE MOVES N ALONG THE FRNT. DETAILS THIS FAR OUT
ARE NOT ENUF FOR ANY KIND OF DETAILED TIMING SO WILL CONT WITH A
BLEND OF HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S POPS WHICH IS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TO START AND WILL
CREEP TO ABV NORMAL BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR WITH JUST A FEW CU AND THIN CIRRUS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. I EXPECT MORE MID AND HIGHER CLDS OVERNIGHT
BUT STILL VFR. CD FRNT WILL PUSH INTO SC NY LATE TONIGHT. I SEE AT
LEAST MVFR CIG WITH A FEW SHRA AT KRME...KSYR AND KITH BEGINNING
BETWEEN 9 AND 11Z AND LASTING MOST OF THE MORNING. KELM AND KBGM
WILL SEE SOME LOWER CLDS IN THE MORNING BUT THE DAY/S HEATING
LIKELY KEEP CIGS FROM DROPPING TO MVFR. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT ON THE EXTENT AND HOW FAR SOUTH ANY LOWER
SC SHIELD MAKES IT BEHIND FRNT. IN ADDTN...IFR IS PSBL BEHIND FRNT
ESP KRME...KSYR AND EVEN KITH.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH ARND 10 KNOTS GUST TO 15-20 KNOTS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIGHT SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WRLY AFTER 12-14Z WED.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT AND SUN...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 261738
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
138 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND GIVE US DRY, BUT COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO ONLY MINOR
COSMETIC TWEAKS ARE REQUIRED ATTM.

VLY FOG IS BURNING OFF...LEAVING SUNNY SKIES ACRS THE RGN LATE
THIS MRNG. MOST OF OUR HI-RES GUIDANCE BRINGS PATCHY MID TO HIGH-
LVL CLDNS INTO CNY/NE PA THIS AFTN...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED
ON THE LATEST SAT IMAGERY...WHICH SHOWS SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER
UPSTREAM OVER WRN NY/SRN ONT. HOWEVER...THIS DOESN`T LOOKS LIKE ENUF
TO DETRACT FROM A PTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE LWR LKS RGN AND SRN ONT WILL
WEAKEN/DSIPT LONG BEFORE REACHING THE FA...AS IT OUTRUNS ITS MAIN
SUPPORT ALOFT.

OUR GOING MAX TEMP FCST (MOSTLY 80-85 DEGS) SEEMS TO BE ON
TRACK...BASED ON RGNL 12Z SNDGS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME LOW-
LVL WAA THIS AFTN.

PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO GEORGIA IS PROVIDING OUR CWA
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING.
AGAIN SOME OF THE FOG IS DENSE. FOG IS IN THE USUAL AREAS OF THE
SRN TIER AND CATSKILLS IN NY AND NE PA. ALOFT WEAK ZONAL FLOW.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE S AND SE AND WEAKEN BETWEEN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NW. INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM TUESDAY UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES TO START FROM THE SRN TIER SOUTH WILL ALLOW SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AGAIN. THIS WILL BE LESS THAN THIS
MORNING DUE TO STRONGER LL WINDS.

WEAK FRONT WITH LITTLE FORCING. TIMING ALSO NOT GOOD WITH FROPA
WED AM. NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE MORNING SUN PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
80S. IN CENT NY CLOUDS AND SCT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
BEFORE SUNRISE AND CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT TO MIDDAY SYR AND UCA
AND MID AFTN SRN TIER. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND FORCING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS WILL CAUSE
LITTLE RUNOFF.

WED NGT AND THU NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL BRING IN DRY AND COOLER
AIR AHEAD OF A LARGE SFC HIGH. THE HIGH WILL BE OVER ALL THE GREAT
LAKES THU THEN OVER THE NE US FRIDAY. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. TROP
SYSTEM WELL OFF COAST AND STACKED LOW OVER EXTREME SE CANADA TOO
FAR AWAY TO GIVE US ANY SHOWERS. AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR
CUMULUS WITH SOME ADDED LAKE MOISTURE. HAVE HIGH END SCT FOR SKY
COVER WHICH MAY NEED TO BE UPPED THU. THU NGT BECOMES CLEAR WITH
THE HIGH PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE AND CUTTING OFF THE NW LL FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS SUGGESTS SOME SHRA WORK INTO C NY WITH THE
EURO AND CMC SHOWING SOME PRECIP N OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
WENT WITH HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S FORECASTS AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC
SHRA FRI NGT. SAT THRU SUNDAY HAVE CHC POPS SHRA AND TSRA AS FRNT
PRESSES EWRD INTO THE ERN LAKES AND SRLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WORK INTO NY AND PA. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY ON
SAT THAN SUNDAY WHEN THE FRNT WILL BE CLOSER AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT LINGERING SHRA AND SOME TSRA
EVEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND SOME SORT
OF SRN BRANCH WAVE MOVES N ALONG THE FRNT. DETAILS THIS FAR OUT
ARE NOT ENUF FOR ANY KIND OF DETAILED TIMING SO WILL CONT WITH A
BLEND OF HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S POPS WHICH IS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TO START AND WILL
CREEP TO ABV NORMAL BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR WITH JUST A FEW CU AND THIN CIRRUS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. I EXPECT MORE MID AND HIGHER CLDS OVERNIGHT
BUT STILL VFR. CD FRNT WILL PUSH INTO SC NY LATE TONIGHT. I SEE AT
LEAST MVFR CIG WITH A FEW SHRA AT KRME...KSYR AND KITH BEGINNING
BETWEEN 9 AND 11Z AND LASTING MOST OF THE MORNING. KELM AND KBGM
WILL SEE SOME LOWER CLDS IN THE MORNING BUT THE DAY/S HEATING
LIKELY KEEP CIGS FROM DROPPING TO MVFR. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT ON THE EXTENT AND HOW FAR SOUTH ANY LOWER
SC SHIELD MAKES IT BEHIND FRNT. IN ADDTN...IFR IS PSBL BEHIND FRNT
ESP KRME...KSYR AND EVEN KITH.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH ARND 10 KNOTS GUST TO 15-20 KNOTS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIGHT SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WRLY AFTER 12-14Z WED.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT AND SUN...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 261738
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
138 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND GIVE US DRY, BUT COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO ONLY MINOR
COSMETIC TWEAKS ARE REQUIRED ATTM.

VLY FOG IS BURNING OFF...LEAVING SUNNY SKIES ACRS THE RGN LATE
THIS MRNG. MOST OF OUR HI-RES GUIDANCE BRINGS PATCHY MID TO HIGH-
LVL CLDNS INTO CNY/NE PA THIS AFTN...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED
ON THE LATEST SAT IMAGERY...WHICH SHOWS SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER
UPSTREAM OVER WRN NY/SRN ONT. HOWEVER...THIS DOESN`T LOOKS LIKE ENUF
TO DETRACT FROM A PTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE LWR LKS RGN AND SRN ONT WILL
WEAKEN/DSIPT LONG BEFORE REACHING THE FA...AS IT OUTRUNS ITS MAIN
SUPPORT ALOFT.

OUR GOING MAX TEMP FCST (MOSTLY 80-85 DEGS) SEEMS TO BE ON
TRACK...BASED ON RGNL 12Z SNDGS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME LOW-
LVL WAA THIS AFTN.

PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO GEORGIA IS PROVIDING OUR CWA
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING.
AGAIN SOME OF THE FOG IS DENSE. FOG IS IN THE USUAL AREAS OF THE
SRN TIER AND CATSKILLS IN NY AND NE PA. ALOFT WEAK ZONAL FLOW.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE S AND SE AND WEAKEN BETWEEN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NW. INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM TUESDAY UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES TO START FROM THE SRN TIER SOUTH WILL ALLOW SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AGAIN. THIS WILL BE LESS THAN THIS
MORNING DUE TO STRONGER LL WINDS.

WEAK FRONT WITH LITTLE FORCING. TIMING ALSO NOT GOOD WITH FROPA
WED AM. NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE MORNING SUN PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
80S. IN CENT NY CLOUDS AND SCT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
BEFORE SUNRISE AND CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT TO MIDDAY SYR AND UCA
AND MID AFTN SRN TIER. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND FORCING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS WILL CAUSE
LITTLE RUNOFF.

WED NGT AND THU NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL BRING IN DRY AND COOLER
AIR AHEAD OF A LARGE SFC HIGH. THE HIGH WILL BE OVER ALL THE GREAT
LAKES THU THEN OVER THE NE US FRIDAY. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. TROP
SYSTEM WELL OFF COAST AND STACKED LOW OVER EXTREME SE CANADA TOO
FAR AWAY TO GIVE US ANY SHOWERS. AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR
CUMULUS WITH SOME ADDED LAKE MOISTURE. HAVE HIGH END SCT FOR SKY
COVER WHICH MAY NEED TO BE UPPED THU. THU NGT BECOMES CLEAR WITH
THE HIGH PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE AND CUTTING OFF THE NW LL FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS SUGGESTS SOME SHRA WORK INTO C NY WITH THE
EURO AND CMC SHOWING SOME PRECIP N OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
WENT WITH HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S FORECASTS AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC
SHRA FRI NGT. SAT THRU SUNDAY HAVE CHC POPS SHRA AND TSRA AS FRNT
PRESSES EWRD INTO THE ERN LAKES AND SRLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WORK INTO NY AND PA. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY ON
SAT THAN SUNDAY WHEN THE FRNT WILL BE CLOSER AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT LINGERING SHRA AND SOME TSRA
EVEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND SOME SORT
OF SRN BRANCH WAVE MOVES N ALONG THE FRNT. DETAILS THIS FAR OUT
ARE NOT ENUF FOR ANY KIND OF DETAILED TIMING SO WILL CONT WITH A
BLEND OF HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S POPS WHICH IS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TO START AND WILL
CREEP TO ABV NORMAL BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR WITH JUST A FEW CU AND THIN CIRRUS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. I EXPECT MORE MID AND HIGHER CLDS OVERNIGHT
BUT STILL VFR. CD FRNT WILL PUSH INTO SC NY LATE TONIGHT. I SEE AT
LEAST MVFR CIG WITH A FEW SHRA AT KRME...KSYR AND KITH BEGINNING
BETWEEN 9 AND 11Z AND LASTING MOST OF THE MORNING. KELM AND KBGM
WILL SEE SOME LOWER CLDS IN THE MORNING BUT THE DAY/S HEATING
LIKELY KEEP CIGS FROM DROPPING TO MVFR. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT ON THE EXTENT AND HOW FAR SOUTH ANY LOWER
SC SHIELD MAKES IT BEHIND FRNT. IN ADDTN...IFR IS PSBL BEHIND FRNT
ESP KRME...KSYR AND EVEN KITH.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH ARND 10 KNOTS GUST TO 15-20 KNOTS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIGHT SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WRLY AFTER 12-14Z WED.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT AND SUN...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 261646
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1246 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND GIVE US DRY, BUT COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO ONLY MINOR
COSMETIC TWEAKS ARE REQUIRED ATTM.

VLY FOG IS BURNING OFF...LEAVING SUNNY SKIES ACRS THE RGN LATE
THIS MRNG. MOST OF OUR HI-RES GUIDANCE BRINGS PATCHY MID TO HIGH-
LVL CLDNS INTO CNY/NE PA THIS AFTN...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED
ON THE LATEST SAT IMAGERY...WHICH SHOWS SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER
UPSTREAM OVER WRN NY/SRN ONT. HOWEVER...THIS DOESN`T LOOKS LIKE ENUF
TO DETRACT FROM A PTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE LWR LKS RGN AND SRN ONT WILL
WEAKEN/DSIPT LONG BEFORE REACHING THE FA...AS IT OUTRUNS ITS MAIN
SUPPORT ALOFT.

OUR GOING MAX TEMP FCST (MOSTLY 80-85 DEGS) SEEMS TO BE ON
TRACK...BASED ON RGNL 12Z SNDGS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME LOW-
LVL WAA THIS AFTN.

PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO GEORGIA IS PROVIDING OUR CWA
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING.
AGAIN SOME OF THE FOG IS DENSE. FOG IS IN THE USUAL AREAS OF THE
SRN TIER AND CATSKILLS IN NY AND NE PA. ALOFT WEAK ZONAL FLOW.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE S AND SE AND WEAKEN BETWEEN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NW. INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM TUESDAY UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES TO START FROM THE SRN TIER SOUTH WILL ALLOW SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AGAIN. THIS WILL BE LESS THAN THIS
MORNING DUE TO STRONGER LL WINDS.

WEAK FRONT WITH LITTLE FORCING. TIMING ALSO NOT GOOD WITH FROPA
WED AM. NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE MORNING SUN PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
80S. IN CENT NY CLOUDS AND SCT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
BEFORE SUNRISE AND CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT TO MIDDAY SYR AND UCA
AND MID AFTN SRN TIER. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND FORCING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS WILL CAUSE
LITTLE RUNOFF.

WED NGT AND THU NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL BRING IN DRY AND COOLER
AIR AHEAD OF A LARGE SFC HIGH. THE HIGH WILL BE OVER ALL THE GREAT
LAKES THU THEN OVER THE NE US FRIDAY. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. TROP
SYSTEM WELL OFF COAST AND STACKED LOW OVER EXTREME SE CANADA TOO
FAR AWAY TO GIVE US ANY SHOWERS. AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR
CUMULUS WITH SOME ADDED LAKE MOISTURE. HAVE HIGH END SCT FOR SKY
COVER WHICH MAY NEED TO BE UPPED THU. THU NGT BECOMES CLEAR WITH
THE HIGH PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE AND CUTTING OFF THE NW LL FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS SUGGESTS SOME SHRA WORK INTO C NY WITH THE
EURO AND CMC SHOWING SOME PRECIP N OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
WENT WITH HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S FORECASTS AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC
SHRA FRI NGT. SAT THRU SUNDAY HAVE CHC POPS SHRA AND TSRA AS FRNT
PRESSES EWRD INTO THE ERN LAKES AND SRLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WORK INTO NY AND PA. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY ON
SAT THAN SUNDAY WHEN THE FRNT WILL BE CLOSER AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT LINGERING SHRA AND SOME TSRA
EVEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND SOME SORT
OF SRN BRANCH WAVE MOVES N ALONG THE FRNT. DETAILS THIS FAR OUT
ARE NOT ENUF FOR ANY KIND OF DETAILED TIMING SO WILL CONT WITH A
BLEND OF HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S POPS WHICH IS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TO START AND WILL
CREEP TO ABV NORMAL BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER 18 HOURS OF HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE SHOWERS MOVE IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY. DENSE IFR FOG WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING AT KELM
WITH VISBYS 1/4-1/2SM AND VV001-VV002 CEILINGS. THE FOG WILL BREAK
UP AND LIFT BETWEEN 13Z AND 1400Z.

VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS.

INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF BGM/ELM BETWEEN 8Z
AND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS A FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD WESTERN NY.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR CIG AND A PASSING SHRA POSSIBLE AS FRONT SLIPS THROUGH
LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...OTHERWISE VFR.

WED NGT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 261646
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1246 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND GIVE US DRY, BUT COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO ONLY MINOR
COSMETIC TWEAKS ARE REQUIRED ATTM.

VLY FOG IS BURNING OFF...LEAVING SUNNY SKIES ACRS THE RGN LATE
THIS MRNG. MOST OF OUR HI-RES GUIDANCE BRINGS PATCHY MID TO HIGH-
LVL CLDNS INTO CNY/NE PA THIS AFTN...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED
ON THE LATEST SAT IMAGERY...WHICH SHOWS SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER
UPSTREAM OVER WRN NY/SRN ONT. HOWEVER...THIS DOESN`T LOOKS LIKE ENUF
TO DETRACT FROM A PTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE LWR LKS RGN AND SRN ONT WILL
WEAKEN/DSIPT LONG BEFORE REACHING THE FA...AS IT OUTRUNS ITS MAIN
SUPPORT ALOFT.

OUR GOING MAX TEMP FCST (MOSTLY 80-85 DEGS) SEEMS TO BE ON
TRACK...BASED ON RGNL 12Z SNDGS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME LOW-
LVL WAA THIS AFTN.

PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO GEORGIA IS PROVIDING OUR CWA
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING.
AGAIN SOME OF THE FOG IS DENSE. FOG IS IN THE USUAL AREAS OF THE
SRN TIER AND CATSKILLS IN NY AND NE PA. ALOFT WEAK ZONAL FLOW.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE S AND SE AND WEAKEN BETWEEN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NW. INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM TUESDAY UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES TO START FROM THE SRN TIER SOUTH WILL ALLOW SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AGAIN. THIS WILL BE LESS THAN THIS
MORNING DUE TO STRONGER LL WINDS.

WEAK FRONT WITH LITTLE FORCING. TIMING ALSO NOT GOOD WITH FROPA
WED AM. NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE MORNING SUN PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
80S. IN CENT NY CLOUDS AND SCT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
BEFORE SUNRISE AND CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT TO MIDDAY SYR AND UCA
AND MID AFTN SRN TIER. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND FORCING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS WILL CAUSE
LITTLE RUNOFF.

WED NGT AND THU NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL BRING IN DRY AND COOLER
AIR AHEAD OF A LARGE SFC HIGH. THE HIGH WILL BE OVER ALL THE GREAT
LAKES THU THEN OVER THE NE US FRIDAY. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. TROP
SYSTEM WELL OFF COAST AND STACKED LOW OVER EXTREME SE CANADA TOO
FAR AWAY TO GIVE US ANY SHOWERS. AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR
CUMULUS WITH SOME ADDED LAKE MOISTURE. HAVE HIGH END SCT FOR SKY
COVER WHICH MAY NEED TO BE UPPED THU. THU NGT BECOMES CLEAR WITH
THE HIGH PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE AND CUTTING OFF THE NW LL FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS SUGGESTS SOME SHRA WORK INTO C NY WITH THE
EURO AND CMC SHOWING SOME PRECIP N OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
WENT WITH HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S FORECASTS AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC
SHRA FRI NGT. SAT THRU SUNDAY HAVE CHC POPS SHRA AND TSRA AS FRNT
PRESSES EWRD INTO THE ERN LAKES AND SRLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WORK INTO NY AND PA. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY ON
SAT THAN SUNDAY WHEN THE FRNT WILL BE CLOSER AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT LINGERING SHRA AND SOME TSRA
EVEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND SOME SORT
OF SRN BRANCH WAVE MOVES N ALONG THE FRNT. DETAILS THIS FAR OUT
ARE NOT ENUF FOR ANY KIND OF DETAILED TIMING SO WILL CONT WITH A
BLEND OF HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S POPS WHICH IS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TO START AND WILL
CREEP TO ABV NORMAL BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER 18 HOURS OF HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE SHOWERS MOVE IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY. DENSE IFR FOG WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING AT KELM
WITH VISBYS 1/4-1/2SM AND VV001-VV002 CEILINGS. THE FOG WILL BREAK
UP AND LIFT BETWEEN 13Z AND 1400Z.

VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS.

INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF BGM/ELM BETWEEN 8Z
AND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS A FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD WESTERN NY.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR CIG AND A PASSING SHRA POSSIBLE AS FRONT SLIPS THROUGH
LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...OTHERWISE VFR.

WED NGT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 261344
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
944 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND GIVE US DRY, BUT COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO ONLY MINOR
COSMETIC TWEAKS ARE REQUIRED ATTM.

VLY FOG IS BURNING OFF...LEAVING SUNNY SKIES ACRS THE RGN LATE
THIS MRNG. MOST OF OUR HI-RES GUIDANCE BRINGS PATCHY MID TO HIGH-
LVL CLDNS INTO CNY/NE PA THIS AFTN...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED
ON THE LATEST SAT IMAGERY...WHICH SHOWS SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER
UPSTREAM OVER WRN NY/SRN ONT. HOWEVER...THIS DOESN`T LOOKS LIKE ENUF
TO DETRACT FROM A PTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE LWR LKS RGN AND SRN ONT WILL
WEAKEN/DSIPT LONG BEFORE REACHING THE FA...AS IT OUTRUNS ITS MAIN
SUPPORT ALOFT.

OUR GOING MAX TEMP FCST (MOSTLY 80-85 DEGS) SEEMS TO BE ON
TRACK...BASED ON RGNL 12Z SNDGS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME LOW-
LVL WAA THIS AFTN.

PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO GEORGIA IS PROVIDING OUR CWA
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING.
AGAIN SOME OF THE FOG IS DENSE. FOG IS IN THE USUAL AREAS OF THE
SRN TIER AND CATSKILLS IN NY AND NE PA. ALOFT WEAK ZONAL FLOW.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE S AND SE AND WEAKEN BETWEEN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NW. INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM TUESDAY UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES TO START FROM THE SRN TIER SOUTH WILL ALLOW SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AGAIN. THIS WILL BE LESS THAN THIS
MORNING DUE TO STRONGER LL WINDS.

WEAK FRONT WITH LITTLE FORCING. TIMING ALSO NOT GOOD WITH FROPA
WED AM. NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE MORNING SUN PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
80S. IN CENT NY CLOUDS AND SCT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
BEFORE SUNRISE AND CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT TO MIDDAY SYR AND UCA
AND MID AFTN SRN TIER. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND FORCING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS WILL CAUSE
LITTLE RUNOFF.

WED NGT AND THU NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL BRING IN DRY AND COOLER
AIR AHEAD OF A LARGE SFC HIGH. THE HIGH WILL BE OVER ALL THE GREAT
LAKES THU THEN OVER THE NE US FRIDAY. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. TROP
SYSTEM WELL OFF COAST AND STACKED LOW OVER EXTREME SE CANADA TOO
FAR AWAY TO GIVE US ANY SHOWERS. AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR
CUMULUS WITH SOME ADDED LAKE MOISTURE. HAVE HIGH END SCT FOR SKY
COVER WHICH MAY NEED TO BE UPPED THU. THU NGT BECOMES CLEAR WITH
THE HIGH PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE AND CUTTING OFF THE NW LL FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM MON UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATN
WILL STAY IN TACT ACRS THE NRN TIER OF STATES AND SRN CANADA THIS
PD. THIS WILL BRING NRN STREAM S/WVS AND ASSOCD SFC FRNTS THROUGH
ABT EVERY 2-3 DAYS...WITH LTL OR NO PCPN IN BETWEEN.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...WE SHOULD START OUT DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH S/WV RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EWD ACRS NY/PA. OVER THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE OUR NEXT S/WV AND
SFC COLD FRNT APPROACH FROM THE W. ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS APPEARS TO BE LATE SAT INTO SUN FROM THIS EARLY
VANTAGE PD...WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCHC-CHC POPS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S-LWR 80S...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER 18 HOURS OF HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE SHOWERS MOVE IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY. DENSE IFR FOG WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING AT KELM
WITH VISBYS 1/4-1/2SM AND VV001-VV002 CEILINGS. THE FOG WILL BREAK
UP AND LIFT BETWEEN 13Z AND 1400Z.

VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS.

INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF BGM/ELM BETWEEN 8Z
AND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS A FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD WESTERN NY.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR CIG AND A PASSING SHRA POSSIBLE AS FRONT SLIPS THROUGH
LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...OTHERWISE VFR.

WED NGT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 261344
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
944 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND GIVE US DRY, BUT COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO ONLY MINOR
COSMETIC TWEAKS ARE REQUIRED ATTM.

VLY FOG IS BURNING OFF...LEAVING SUNNY SKIES ACRS THE RGN LATE
THIS MRNG. MOST OF OUR HI-RES GUIDANCE BRINGS PATCHY MID TO HIGH-
LVL CLDNS INTO CNY/NE PA THIS AFTN...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED
ON THE LATEST SAT IMAGERY...WHICH SHOWS SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER
UPSTREAM OVER WRN NY/SRN ONT. HOWEVER...THIS DOESN`T LOOKS LIKE ENUF
TO DETRACT FROM A PTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE LWR LKS RGN AND SRN ONT WILL
WEAKEN/DSIPT LONG BEFORE REACHING THE FA...AS IT OUTRUNS ITS MAIN
SUPPORT ALOFT.

OUR GOING MAX TEMP FCST (MOSTLY 80-85 DEGS) SEEMS TO BE ON
TRACK...BASED ON RGNL 12Z SNDGS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME LOW-
LVL WAA THIS AFTN.

PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO GEORGIA IS PROVIDING OUR CWA
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING.
AGAIN SOME OF THE FOG IS DENSE. FOG IS IN THE USUAL AREAS OF THE
SRN TIER AND CATSKILLS IN NY AND NE PA. ALOFT WEAK ZONAL FLOW.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE S AND SE AND WEAKEN BETWEEN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NW. INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM TUESDAY UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES TO START FROM THE SRN TIER SOUTH WILL ALLOW SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AGAIN. THIS WILL BE LESS THAN THIS
MORNING DUE TO STRONGER LL WINDS.

WEAK FRONT WITH LITTLE FORCING. TIMING ALSO NOT GOOD WITH FROPA
WED AM. NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE MORNING SUN PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
80S. IN CENT NY CLOUDS AND SCT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
BEFORE SUNRISE AND CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT TO MIDDAY SYR AND UCA
AND MID AFTN SRN TIER. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND FORCING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS WILL CAUSE
LITTLE RUNOFF.

WED NGT AND THU NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL BRING IN DRY AND COOLER
AIR AHEAD OF A LARGE SFC HIGH. THE HIGH WILL BE OVER ALL THE GREAT
LAKES THU THEN OVER THE NE US FRIDAY. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. TROP
SYSTEM WELL OFF COAST AND STACKED LOW OVER EXTREME SE CANADA TOO
FAR AWAY TO GIVE US ANY SHOWERS. AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR
CUMULUS WITH SOME ADDED LAKE MOISTURE. HAVE HIGH END SCT FOR SKY
COVER WHICH MAY NEED TO BE UPPED THU. THU NGT BECOMES CLEAR WITH
THE HIGH PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE AND CUTTING OFF THE NW LL FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM MON UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATN
WILL STAY IN TACT ACRS THE NRN TIER OF STATES AND SRN CANADA THIS
PD. THIS WILL BRING NRN STREAM S/WVS AND ASSOCD SFC FRNTS THROUGH
ABT EVERY 2-3 DAYS...WITH LTL OR NO PCPN IN BETWEEN.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...WE SHOULD START OUT DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH S/WV RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EWD ACRS NY/PA. OVER THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE OUR NEXT S/WV AND
SFC COLD FRNT APPROACH FROM THE W. ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS APPEARS TO BE LATE SAT INTO SUN FROM THIS EARLY
VANTAGE PD...WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCHC-CHC POPS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S-LWR 80S...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER 18 HOURS OF HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE SHOWERS MOVE IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY. DENSE IFR FOG WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING AT KELM
WITH VISBYS 1/4-1/2SM AND VV001-VV002 CEILINGS. THE FOG WILL BREAK
UP AND LIFT BETWEEN 13Z AND 1400Z.

VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS.

INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF BGM/ELM BETWEEN 8Z
AND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS A FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD WESTERN NY.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR CIG AND A PASSING SHRA POSSIBLE AS FRONT SLIPS THROUGH
LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...OTHERWISE VFR.

WED NGT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 261039
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
639 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND GIVE US DRY, BUT COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
3 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO GEORGIA IS PROVIDING OUR CWA
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING.
AGAIN SOME OF THE FOG IS DENSE. FOG IS IN THE USUAL AREAS OF THE
SRN TIER AND CATSKILLS IN NY AND NE PA. ALOFT WEAK ZONAL FLOW.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE S AND SE AND WEAKEN BETWEEN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NW. INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM TUESDAY UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES TO START FROM THE SRN TIER SOUTH WILL ALLOW SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AGAIN. THIS WILL BE LESS THAN THIS
MORNING DUE TO STRONGER LL WINDS.

WEAK FRONT WITH LITTLE FORCING. TIMING ALSO NOT GOOD WITH FROPA
WED AM. NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE MORNING SUN PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
80S. IN CENT NY CLOUDS AND SCT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
BEFORE SUNRISE AND CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT TO MIDDAY SYR AND UCA
AND MID AFTN SRN TIER. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND FORCING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS WILL CAUSE
LITTLE RUNOFF.

WED NGT AND THU NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL BRING IN DRY AND COOLER
AIR AHEAD OF A LARGE SFC HIGH. THE HIGH WILL BE OVER ALL THE GREAT
LAKES THU THEN OVER THE NE US FRIDAY. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. TROP
SYSTEM WELL OFF COAST AND STACKED LOW OVER EXTREME SE CANADA TOO
FAR AWAY TO GIVE US ANY SHOWERS. AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR
CUMULUS WITH SOME ADDED LAKE MOISTURE. HAVE HIGH END SCT FOR SKY
COVER WHICH MAY NEED TO BE UPPED THU. THU NGT BECOMES CLEAR WITH
THE HIGH PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE AND CUTTING OFF THE NW LL FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM MON UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATN
WILL STAY IN TACT ACRS THE NRN TIER OF STATES AND SRN CANADA THIS
PD. THIS WILL BRING NRN STREAM S/WVS AND ASSOCD SFC FRNTS THROUGH
ABT EVERY 2-3 DAYS...WITH LTL OR NO PCPN IN BETWEEN.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...WE SHOULD START OUT DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH S/WV RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EWD ACRS NY/PA. OVER THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE OUR NEXT S/WV AND
SFC COLD FRNT APPROACH FROM THE W. ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS APPEARS TO BE LATE SAT INTO SUN FROM THIS EARLY
VANTAGE PD...WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCHC-CHC POPS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S-LWR 80S...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER 18 HOURS OF HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE SHOWERS MOVE IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY. DENSE IFR FOG WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING AT KELM
WITH VISBYS 1/4-1/2SM AND VV001-VV002 CEILINGS. THE FOG WILL BREAK
UP AND LIFT BETWEEN 13Z AND 1400Z.

VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS.

INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF BGM/ELM BETWEEN 8Z
AND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS A FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD WESTERN NY.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR CIG AND A PASSING SHRA POSSIBLE AS FRONT SLIPS THROUGH
LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...OTHERWISE VFR.

WED NGT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJP








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