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000
FXUS61 KBGM 031056
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
656 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
FRONT MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING AND BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. FOG IS SLIGHTLY MORE
DENSE THAN EXPECTED AND SHOULD LIFT ROUGHLY AROUND 14Z-15Z.

A WEAK BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS
MORNING... AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. THIS FEATURE IS ALMOST ALL SFC BASED... AS IN
MINIMAL SUPPORT ALOFT. PLENTY OF SB INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS
COMBINATION MAY RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH NEAR
SUNSET. ATTM... THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
CROSS THE NY BORDER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER NE PA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THEE ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. BELIEVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO NEPA AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. SATURDAY... THE RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME
VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS OCCURRING ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WITH THIS BEING MOST SIGNIFICANT AT KELM...AS IS TYPICAL.
AT KELM, EXPECT PREVAILING CONDITIONS BELOW AIRPORT MINS UNTIL
AROUND 1230Z WITH IMPROVEMENT OCCURRING FROM THIS TIME THROUGH
14Z. KSYR/KBGM/KITH WILL SEE IFR VISBYS AT TIMES THROUGH AROUND
MID MORNING WITH FOG LIFTING AROUND THE 13-14Z TIME FRAME. FOR
KRME, SCT TO BKN LOW STRATUS MAY BRING IFR CIGS AT TIMES UNTIL
AROUND 14Z. FINALLY FOR KAVP, JUST EXPECT MIST TO BRING MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES THROUGH MID MORNING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS THE CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL BE AT BEST 30 PERCENT AT ANY GIVEN SITE.

FOR TONIGHT, ANY STORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MORE MIST/FOG
LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS THERE WILL LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS SINCE THE
FRONT WILL BE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
VISBYS LIKELY GOING DOWN TO AT LEAST IFR FOR KITH/KELM/KBGM WITH
MVFR FOR KAVP.

EXPECT LIGHT W/NW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS FOR TODAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING
FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 031056
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
656 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
FRONT MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING AND BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. FOG IS SLIGHTLY MORE
DENSE THAN EXPECTED AND SHOULD LIFT ROUGHLY AROUND 14Z-15Z.

A WEAK BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS
MORNING... AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. THIS FEATURE IS ALMOST ALL SFC BASED... AS IN
MINIMAL SUPPORT ALOFT. PLENTY OF SB INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS
COMBINATION MAY RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH NEAR
SUNSET. ATTM... THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
CROSS THE NY BORDER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER NE PA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THEE ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. BELIEVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO NEPA AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. SATURDAY... THE RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME
VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS OCCURRING ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WITH THIS BEING MOST SIGNIFICANT AT KELM...AS IS TYPICAL.
AT KELM, EXPECT PREVAILING CONDITIONS BELOW AIRPORT MINS UNTIL
AROUND 1230Z WITH IMPROVEMENT OCCURRING FROM THIS TIME THROUGH
14Z. KSYR/KBGM/KITH WILL SEE IFR VISBYS AT TIMES THROUGH AROUND
MID MORNING WITH FOG LIFTING AROUND THE 13-14Z TIME FRAME. FOR
KRME, SCT TO BKN LOW STRATUS MAY BRING IFR CIGS AT TIMES UNTIL
AROUND 14Z. FINALLY FOR KAVP, JUST EXPECT MIST TO BRING MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES THROUGH MID MORNING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS THE CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL BE AT BEST 30 PERCENT AT ANY GIVEN SITE.

FOR TONIGHT, ANY STORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MORE MIST/FOG
LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS THERE WILL LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS SINCE THE
FRONT WILL BE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
VISBYS LIKELY GOING DOWN TO AT LEAST IFR FOR KITH/KELM/KBGM WITH
MVFR FOR KAVP.

EXPECT LIGHT W/NW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS FOR TODAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING
FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 031056
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
656 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
FRONT MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING AND BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. FOG IS SLIGHTLY MORE
DENSE THAN EXPECTED AND SHOULD LIFT ROUGHLY AROUND 14Z-15Z.

A WEAK BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS
MORNING... AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. THIS FEATURE IS ALMOST ALL SFC BASED... AS IN
MINIMAL SUPPORT ALOFT. PLENTY OF SB INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS
COMBINATION MAY RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH NEAR
SUNSET. ATTM... THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
CROSS THE NY BORDER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER NE PA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THEE ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. BELIEVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO NEPA AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. SATURDAY... THE RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME
VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS OCCURRING ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WITH THIS BEING MOST SIGNIFICANT AT KELM...AS IS TYPICAL.
AT KELM, EXPECT PREVAILING CONDITIONS BELOW AIRPORT MINS UNTIL
AROUND 1230Z WITH IMPROVEMENT OCCURRING FROM THIS TIME THROUGH
14Z. KSYR/KBGM/KITH WILL SEE IFR VISBYS AT TIMES THROUGH AROUND
MID MORNING WITH FOG LIFTING AROUND THE 13-14Z TIME FRAME. FOR
KRME, SCT TO BKN LOW STRATUS MAY BRING IFR CIGS AT TIMES UNTIL
AROUND 14Z. FINALLY FOR KAVP, JUST EXPECT MIST TO BRING MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES THROUGH MID MORNING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS THE CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL BE AT BEST 30 PERCENT AT ANY GIVEN SITE.

FOR TONIGHT, ANY STORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MORE MIST/FOG
LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS THERE WILL LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS SINCE THE
FRONT WILL BE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
VISBYS LIKELY GOING DOWN TO AT LEAST IFR FOR KITH/KELM/KBGM WITH
MVFR FOR KAVP.

EXPECT LIGHT W/NW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS FOR TODAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING
FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 031056
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
656 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
FRONT MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING AND BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. FOG IS SLIGHTLY MORE
DENSE THAN EXPECTED AND SHOULD LIFT ROUGHLY AROUND 14Z-15Z.

A WEAK BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS
MORNING... AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. THIS FEATURE IS ALMOST ALL SFC BASED... AS IN
MINIMAL SUPPORT ALOFT. PLENTY OF SB INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS
COMBINATION MAY RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH NEAR
SUNSET. ATTM... THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
CROSS THE NY BORDER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER NE PA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THEE ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. BELIEVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO NEPA AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. SATURDAY... THE RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME
VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS OCCURRING ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WITH THIS BEING MOST SIGNIFICANT AT KELM...AS IS TYPICAL.
AT KELM, EXPECT PREVAILING CONDITIONS BELOW AIRPORT MINS UNTIL
AROUND 1230Z WITH IMPROVEMENT OCCURRING FROM THIS TIME THROUGH
14Z. KSYR/KBGM/KITH WILL SEE IFR VISBYS AT TIMES THROUGH AROUND
MID MORNING WITH FOG LIFTING AROUND THE 13-14Z TIME FRAME. FOR
KRME, SCT TO BKN LOW STRATUS MAY BRING IFR CIGS AT TIMES UNTIL
AROUND 14Z. FINALLY FOR KAVP, JUST EXPECT MIST TO BRING MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES THROUGH MID MORNING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS THE CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL BE AT BEST 30 PERCENT AT ANY GIVEN SITE.

FOR TONIGHT, ANY STORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MORE MIST/FOG
LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS THERE WILL LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS SINCE THE
FRONT WILL BE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
VISBYS LIKELY GOING DOWN TO AT LEAST IFR FOR KITH/KELM/KBGM WITH
MVFR FOR KAVP.

EXPECT LIGHT W/NW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS FOR TODAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING
FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 030905
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
505 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
FRONT MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING AND BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. FOG IS SLIGHTLY MORE
DENSE THAN EXPECTED AND SHOULD LIFT ROUGHLY AROUND 14Z-15Z.

A WEAK BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS
MORNING... AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. THIS FEATURE IS ALMOST ALL SFC BASED... AS IN
MINIMAL SUPPORT ALOFT. PLENTY OF SB INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS
COMBINATION MAY RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH NEAR
SUNSET. ATTM... THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
CROSS THE NY BORDER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER NE PA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THEE ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. BELIEVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO NEPA AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. SATURDAY... THE RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME
VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ONCE AGAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS BELOW ALTERNATE
MINS LIKELY FOR KELM/KITH/KRME BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL EVEN FOR KELM TO GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS
BUT NOT QUITE AS LIKELY AS RECENT MORNINGS. FOR REMAINING SITES,
IFR LIKELY BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR
KSYR/KBGM WITH PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY FOR KAVP. EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO
LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
STILL PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING
FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 030905
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
505 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
FRONT MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING AND BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. FOG IS SLIGHTLY MORE
DENSE THAN EXPECTED AND SHOULD LIFT ROUGHLY AROUND 14Z-15Z.

A WEAK BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS
MORNING... AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. THIS FEATURE IS ALMOST ALL SFC BASED... AS IN
MINIMAL SUPPORT ALOFT. PLENTY OF SB INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS
COMBINATION MAY RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH NEAR
SUNSET. ATTM... THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
CROSS THE NY BORDER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER NE PA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THEE ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. BELIEVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO NEPA AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. SATURDAY... THE RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME
VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ONCE AGAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS BELOW ALTERNATE
MINS LIKELY FOR KELM/KITH/KRME BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL EVEN FOR KELM TO GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS
BUT NOT QUITE AS LIKELY AS RECENT MORNINGS. FOR REMAINING SITES,
IFR LIKELY BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR
KSYR/KBGM WITH PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY FOR KAVP. EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO
LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
STILL PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING
FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 030905
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
505 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
FRONT MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING AND BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. FOG IS SLIGHTLY MORE
DENSE THAN EXPECTED AND SHOULD LIFT ROUGHLY AROUND 14Z-15Z.

A WEAK BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS
MORNING... AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. THIS FEATURE IS ALMOST ALL SFC BASED... AS IN
MINIMAL SUPPORT ALOFT. PLENTY OF SB INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS
COMBINATION MAY RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH NEAR
SUNSET. ATTM... THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
CROSS THE NY BORDER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER NE PA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THEE ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. BELIEVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO NEPA AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. SATURDAY... THE RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME
VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ONCE AGAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS BELOW ALTERNATE
MINS LIKELY FOR KELM/KITH/KRME BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL EVEN FOR KELM TO GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS
BUT NOT QUITE AS LIKELY AS RECENT MORNINGS. FOR REMAINING SITES,
IFR LIKELY BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR
KSYR/KBGM WITH PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY FOR KAVP. EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO
LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
STILL PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING
FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 030734
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
334 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
FRONT MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN THIS MORNING.
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AS DENSE AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
AND SHOULD LIFT ROUGHLY AROUND 14Z.

A WEAK BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS
MORNING... AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. THIS FEATURE IS ALMOST ALL SFC BASED... AS IN
MINIMAL SUPPORT ALOFT. PLENTY OF SB INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS
COMBINATION MAY RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH NEAR
SUNSET. ATTM... THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
CROSS THE NY BORDER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER NE PA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THEE ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. BELIEVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO NEPA AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. SATURDAY... THE RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME
VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ONCE AGAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS BELOW ALTERNATE
MINS LIKELY FOR KELM/KITH/KRME BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL EVEN FOR KELM TO GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS
BUT NOT QUITE AS LIKELY AS RECENT MORNINGS. FOR REMAINING SITES,
IFR LIKELY BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR
KSYR/KBGM WITH PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY FOR KAVP. EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO
LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
STILL PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING
FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 030734
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
334 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
FRONT MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN THIS MORNING.
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AS DENSE AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
AND SHOULD LIFT ROUGHLY AROUND 14Z.

A WEAK BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS
MORNING... AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. THIS FEATURE IS ALMOST ALL SFC BASED... AS IN
MINIMAL SUPPORT ALOFT. PLENTY OF SB INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS
COMBINATION MAY RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH NEAR
SUNSET. ATTM... THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
CROSS THE NY BORDER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER NE PA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THEE ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. BELIEVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO NEPA AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. SATURDAY... THE RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME
VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ONCE AGAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS BELOW ALTERNATE
MINS LIKELY FOR KELM/KITH/KRME BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL EVEN FOR KELM TO GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS
BUT NOT QUITE AS LIKELY AS RECENT MORNINGS. FOR REMAINING SITES,
IFR LIKELY BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR
KSYR/KBGM WITH PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY FOR KAVP. EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO
LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
STILL PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING
FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 030734
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
334 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
FRONT MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN THIS MORNING.
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AS DENSE AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
AND SHOULD LIFT ROUGHLY AROUND 14Z.

A WEAK BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS
MORNING... AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. THIS FEATURE IS ALMOST ALL SFC BASED... AS IN
MINIMAL SUPPORT ALOFT. PLENTY OF SB INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS
COMBINATION MAY RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH NEAR
SUNSET. ATTM... THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
CROSS THE NY BORDER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER NE PA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THEE ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. BELIEVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO NEPA AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. SATURDAY... THE RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME
VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ONCE AGAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS BELOW ALTERNATE
MINS LIKELY FOR KELM/KITH/KRME BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL EVEN FOR KELM TO GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS
BUT NOT QUITE AS LIKELY AS RECENT MORNINGS. FOR REMAINING SITES,
IFR LIKELY BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR
KSYR/KBGM WITH PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY FOR KAVP. EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO
LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
STILL PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING
FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 030734
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
334 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
FRONT MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN THIS MORNING.
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AS DENSE AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
AND SHOULD LIFT ROUGHLY AROUND 14Z.

A WEAK BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS
MORNING... AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. THIS FEATURE IS ALMOST ALL SFC BASED... AS IN
MINIMAL SUPPORT ALOFT. PLENTY OF SB INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS
COMBINATION MAY RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH NEAR
SUNSET. ATTM... THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
CROSS THE NY BORDER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER NE PA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THEE ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. BELIEVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO NEPA AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. SATURDAY... THE RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME
VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ONCE AGAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS BELOW ALTERNATE
MINS LIKELY FOR KELM/KITH/KRME BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL EVEN FOR KELM TO GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS
BUT NOT QUITE AS LIKELY AS RECENT MORNINGS. FOR REMAINING SITES,
IFR LIKELY BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR
KSYR/KBGM WITH PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY FOR KAVP. EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO
LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
STILL PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING
FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 030637
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
237 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL TEMPORARILY YIELD TO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITS
CONTROL, FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, TO BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER, AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
755 PM UPDATE...
AFTER ANALYZING LATEST T/TD TRENDS, WE DETERMINED THAT CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MET SOMEWHERE AROUND 5Z-6Z, WITH
PATCHY FOG FORMING THEREAFTER.

LIKE LAST NIGHT, FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AND NOT CONFINED TO JUST
THE RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER, FOG WON`T BE QUITE AS DENSE, DUE TO
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

245 PM UPDATE... PATCHY FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS EXPANSIVE AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS, WE DO EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERSISTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS AWAY THURSDAY, THE MAIN THING
WE`LL BE WATCHING IS A WEAK BACK-DOOR TYPE SURFACE BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NY AND PA. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S, THE AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE, PERHAPS TO THE TUNE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, OVERALL FORCING LOOKS QUITE
UNIMPRESSIVE (VERY LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT, WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, AND A VERY WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TO BOOT). THUS, WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED
AND GARDEN VARIETY (NON-SEVERE) IN NATURE.

HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
3 PM UPDATE... THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WHILE HAVING A
TENDENCY TO WASH OUT ALTOGETHER. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING. ON FRIDAY,
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES,
CLOSER TO THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL BE WARM AND RAIN-FREE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OVER THE WEEKEND, A LARGE RIDGE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THUS SHOULD RESULT IN A
RENEWED STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY SEP (HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S, AND PERHAPS NEAR 90 IN
SOME OF OUR NORMALLY WARMER VALLEY/URBAN LOCATIONS).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME
VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ONCE AGAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS BELOW ALTERNATE
MINS LIKELY FOR KELM/KITH/KRME BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL EVEN FOR KELM TO GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS
BUT NOT QUITE AS LIKELY AS RECENT MORNINGS. FOR REMAINING SITES,
IFR LIKELY BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR
KSYR/KBGM WITH PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY FOR KAVP. EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO
LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
STILL PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING
FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 030637
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
237 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL TEMPORARILY YIELD TO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITS
CONTROL, FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, TO BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER, AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
755 PM UPDATE...
AFTER ANALYZING LATEST T/TD TRENDS, WE DETERMINED THAT CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MET SOMEWHERE AROUND 5Z-6Z, WITH
PATCHY FOG FORMING THEREAFTER.

LIKE LAST NIGHT, FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AND NOT CONFINED TO JUST
THE RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER, FOG WON`T BE QUITE AS DENSE, DUE TO
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

245 PM UPDATE... PATCHY FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS EXPANSIVE AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS, WE DO EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERSISTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS AWAY THURSDAY, THE MAIN THING
WE`LL BE WATCHING IS A WEAK BACK-DOOR TYPE SURFACE BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NY AND PA. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S, THE AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE, PERHAPS TO THE TUNE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, OVERALL FORCING LOOKS QUITE
UNIMPRESSIVE (VERY LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT, WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, AND A VERY WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TO BOOT). THUS, WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED
AND GARDEN VARIETY (NON-SEVERE) IN NATURE.

HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
3 PM UPDATE... THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WHILE HAVING A
TENDENCY TO WASH OUT ALTOGETHER. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING. ON FRIDAY,
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES,
CLOSER TO THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL BE WARM AND RAIN-FREE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OVER THE WEEKEND, A LARGE RIDGE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THUS SHOULD RESULT IN A
RENEWED STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY SEP (HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S, AND PERHAPS NEAR 90 IN
SOME OF OUR NORMALLY WARMER VALLEY/URBAN LOCATIONS).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME
VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ONCE AGAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS BELOW ALTERNATE
MINS LIKELY FOR KELM/KITH/KRME BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL EVEN FOR KELM TO GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS
BUT NOT QUITE AS LIKELY AS RECENT MORNINGS. FOR REMAINING SITES,
IFR LIKELY BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR
KSYR/KBGM WITH PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY FOR KAVP. EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO
LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
STILL PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING
FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 030546
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL TEMPORARILY YIELD TO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITS
CONTROL, FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, TO BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER, AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
755 PM UPDATE...
AFTER ANALYZING LATEST T/TD TRENDS, WE DETERMINED THAT CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MET SOMEWHERE AROUND 5Z-6Z, WITH
PATCHY FOG FORMING THEREAFTER.

LIKE LAST NIGHT, FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AND NOT CONFINED TO JUST
THE RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER, FOG WON`T BE QUITE AS DENSE, DUE TO
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

245 PM UPDATE... PATCHY FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS EXPANSIVE AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS, WE DO EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERSISTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS AWAY THURSDAY, THE MAIN THING
WE`LL BE WATCHING IS A WEAK BACK-DOOR TYPE SURFACE BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NY AND PA. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S, THE AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE, PERHAPS TO THE TUNE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, OVERALL FORCING LOOKS QUITE
UNIMPRESSIVE (VERY LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT, WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, AND A VERY WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TO BOOT). THUS, WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED
AND GARDEN VARIETY (NON-SEVERE) IN NATURE.

HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE... THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WHILE HAVING A
TENDENCY TO WASH OUT ALTOGETHER. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING. ON FRIDAY,
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES,
CLOSER TO THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL BE WARM AND RAIN-FREE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OVER THE WEEKEND, A LARGE RIDGE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THUS SHOULD RESULT IN A
RENEWED STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY SEP (HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S, AND PERHAPS NEAR 90 IN
SOME OF OUR NORMALLY WARMER VALLEY/URBAN LOCATIONS).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ONCE AGAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS BELOW ALTERNATE
MINS LIKELY FOR KELM/KITH/KRME BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL EVEN FOR KELM TO GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS
BUT NOT QUITE AS LIKELY AS RECENT MORNINGS. FOR REMAINING SITES,
IFR LIKELY BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR
KSYR/KBGM WITH PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY FOR KAVP. EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO
LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
STILL PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING
FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 030546
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL TEMPORARILY YIELD TO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITS
CONTROL, FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, TO BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER, AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
755 PM UPDATE...
AFTER ANALYZING LATEST T/TD TRENDS, WE DETERMINED THAT CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MET SOMEWHERE AROUND 5Z-6Z, WITH
PATCHY FOG FORMING THEREAFTER.

LIKE LAST NIGHT, FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AND NOT CONFINED TO JUST
THE RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER, FOG WON`T BE QUITE AS DENSE, DUE TO
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

245 PM UPDATE... PATCHY FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS EXPANSIVE AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS, WE DO EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERSISTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS AWAY THURSDAY, THE MAIN THING
WE`LL BE WATCHING IS A WEAK BACK-DOOR TYPE SURFACE BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NY AND PA. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S, THE AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE, PERHAPS TO THE TUNE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, OVERALL FORCING LOOKS QUITE
UNIMPRESSIVE (VERY LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT, WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, AND A VERY WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TO BOOT). THUS, WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED
AND GARDEN VARIETY (NON-SEVERE) IN NATURE.

HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE... THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WHILE HAVING A
TENDENCY TO WASH OUT ALTOGETHER. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING. ON FRIDAY,
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES,
CLOSER TO THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL BE WARM AND RAIN-FREE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OVER THE WEEKEND, A LARGE RIDGE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THUS SHOULD RESULT IN A
RENEWED STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY SEP (HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S, AND PERHAPS NEAR 90 IN
SOME OF OUR NORMALLY WARMER VALLEY/URBAN LOCATIONS).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ONCE AGAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS BELOW ALTERNATE
MINS LIKELY FOR KELM/KITH/KRME BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL EVEN FOR KELM TO GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS
BUT NOT QUITE AS LIKELY AS RECENT MORNINGS. FOR REMAINING SITES,
IFR LIKELY BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR
KSYR/KBGM WITH PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY FOR KAVP. EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO
LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
STILL PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING
FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 030039
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
839 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL TEMPORARILY YIELD TO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITS
CONTROL, FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, TO BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER, AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
755 PM UPDATE...
AFTER ANALYZING LATEST T/TD TRENDS, WE DETERMINED THAT CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MET SOMEWHERE AROUND 5Z-6Z, WITH
PATCHY FOG FORMING THEREAFTER.

LIKE LAST NIGHT, FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AND NOT CONFINED TO JUST
THE RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER, FOG WON`T BE QUITE AS DENSE, DUE TO
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.


245 PM UPDATE... PATCHY FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS EXPANSIVE AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS, WE DO EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERSISTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS AWAY THURSDAY, THE MAIN THING
WE`LL BE WATCHING IS A WEAK BACK-DOOR TYPE SURFACE BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NY AND PA. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S, THE AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE, PERHAPS TO THE TUNE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, OVERALL FORCING LOOKS QUITE
UNIMPRESSIVE (VERY LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT, WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, AND A VERY WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TO BOOT). THUS, WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED
AND GARDEN VARIETY (NON-SEVERE) IN NATURE.

HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE... THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WHILE HAVING A
TENDENCY TO WASH OUT ALTOGETHER. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING. ON FRIDAY,
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES,
CLOSER TO THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL BE WARM AND RAIN-FREE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OVER THE WEEKEND, A LARGE RIDGE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THUS SHOULD RESULT IN A
RENEWED STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY SEP (HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S, AND PERHAPS NEAR 90 IN
SOME OF OUR NORMALLY WARMER VALLEY/URBAN LOCATIONS).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT, BUT SOME LIGHT HAZE COULD PRODUCE
MVFR VSBYS FROM TIEM TO TIME. AFTER 05Z...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN, WITH IFR POTENTIAL THE HIGHEST
AT KELM AND KBGM. MVFR RESTRICTIONS SEEM MORE LIKELY ELSEWHERE. AT
KELM AIRPORT MINS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z, BUT NOT QUITE
AS LIKELY AS PAST MORNINGS.

EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z
THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING FOG IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...HEDEN/MLJ





000
FXUS61 KBGM 030039
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
839 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL TEMPORARILY YIELD TO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITS
CONTROL, FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, TO BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER, AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
755 PM UPDATE...
AFTER ANALYZING LATEST T/TD TRENDS, WE DETERMINED THAT CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MET SOMEWHERE AROUND 5Z-6Z, WITH
PATCHY FOG FORMING THEREAFTER.

LIKE LAST NIGHT, FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AND NOT CONFINED TO JUST
THE RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER, FOG WON`T BE QUITE AS DENSE, DUE TO
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.


245 PM UPDATE... PATCHY FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS EXPANSIVE AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS, WE DO EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERSISTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS AWAY THURSDAY, THE MAIN THING
WE`LL BE WATCHING IS A WEAK BACK-DOOR TYPE SURFACE BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NY AND PA. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S, THE AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE, PERHAPS TO THE TUNE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, OVERALL FORCING LOOKS QUITE
UNIMPRESSIVE (VERY LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT, WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, AND A VERY WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TO BOOT). THUS, WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED
AND GARDEN VARIETY (NON-SEVERE) IN NATURE.

HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE... THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WHILE HAVING A
TENDENCY TO WASH OUT ALTOGETHER. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING. ON FRIDAY,
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES,
CLOSER TO THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL BE WARM AND RAIN-FREE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OVER THE WEEKEND, A LARGE RIDGE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THUS SHOULD RESULT IN A
RENEWED STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY SEP (HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S, AND PERHAPS NEAR 90 IN
SOME OF OUR NORMALLY WARMER VALLEY/URBAN LOCATIONS).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT, BUT SOME LIGHT HAZE COULD PRODUCE
MVFR VSBYS FROM TIEM TO TIME. AFTER 05Z...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN, WITH IFR POTENTIAL THE HIGHEST
AT KELM AND KBGM. MVFR RESTRICTIONS SEEM MORE LIKELY ELSEWHERE. AT
KELM AIRPORT MINS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z, BUT NOT QUITE
AS LIKELY AS PAST MORNINGS.

EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z
THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING FOG IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...HEDEN/MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBGM 030039
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
839 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL TEMPORARILY YIELD TO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITS
CONTROL, FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, TO BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER, AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
755 PM UPDATE...
AFTER ANALYZING LATEST T/TD TRENDS, WE DETERMINED THAT CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MET SOMEWHERE AROUND 5Z-6Z, WITH
PATCHY FOG FORMING THEREAFTER.

LIKE LAST NIGHT, FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AND NOT CONFINED TO JUST
THE RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER, FOG WON`T BE QUITE AS DENSE, DUE TO
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.


245 PM UPDATE... PATCHY FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS EXPANSIVE AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS, WE DO EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERSISTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS AWAY THURSDAY, THE MAIN THING
WE`LL BE WATCHING IS A WEAK BACK-DOOR TYPE SURFACE BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NY AND PA. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S, THE AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE, PERHAPS TO THE TUNE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, OVERALL FORCING LOOKS QUITE
UNIMPRESSIVE (VERY LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT, WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, AND A VERY WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TO BOOT). THUS, WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED
AND GARDEN VARIETY (NON-SEVERE) IN NATURE.

HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE... THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WHILE HAVING A
TENDENCY TO WASH OUT ALTOGETHER. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING. ON FRIDAY,
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES,
CLOSER TO THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL BE WARM AND RAIN-FREE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OVER THE WEEKEND, A LARGE RIDGE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THUS SHOULD RESULT IN A
RENEWED STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY SEP (HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S, AND PERHAPS NEAR 90 IN
SOME OF OUR NORMALLY WARMER VALLEY/URBAN LOCATIONS).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT, BUT SOME LIGHT HAZE COULD PRODUCE
MVFR VSBYS FROM TIEM TO TIME. AFTER 05Z...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN, WITH IFR POTENTIAL THE HIGHEST
AT KELM AND KBGM. MVFR RESTRICTIONS SEEM MORE LIKELY ELSEWHERE. AT
KELM AIRPORT MINS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z, BUT NOT QUITE
AS LIKELY AS PAST MORNINGS.

EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z
THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING FOG IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...HEDEN/MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBGM 030039
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
839 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL TEMPORARILY YIELD TO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITS
CONTROL, FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, TO BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER, AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
755 PM UPDATE...
AFTER ANALYZING LATEST T/TD TRENDS, WE DETERMINED THAT CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MET SOMEWHERE AROUND 5Z-6Z, WITH
PATCHY FOG FORMING THEREAFTER.

LIKE LAST NIGHT, FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AND NOT CONFINED TO JUST
THE RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER, FOG WON`T BE QUITE AS DENSE, DUE TO
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.


245 PM UPDATE... PATCHY FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS EXPANSIVE AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS, WE DO EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERSISTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS AWAY THURSDAY, THE MAIN THING
WE`LL BE WATCHING IS A WEAK BACK-DOOR TYPE SURFACE BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NY AND PA. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S, THE AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE, PERHAPS TO THE TUNE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, OVERALL FORCING LOOKS QUITE
UNIMPRESSIVE (VERY LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT, WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, AND A VERY WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TO BOOT). THUS, WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED
AND GARDEN VARIETY (NON-SEVERE) IN NATURE.

HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE... THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WHILE HAVING A
TENDENCY TO WASH OUT ALTOGETHER. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING. ON FRIDAY,
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES,
CLOSER TO THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL BE WARM AND RAIN-FREE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OVER THE WEEKEND, A LARGE RIDGE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THUS SHOULD RESULT IN A
RENEWED STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY SEP (HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S, AND PERHAPS NEAR 90 IN
SOME OF OUR NORMALLY WARMER VALLEY/URBAN LOCATIONS).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT, BUT SOME LIGHT HAZE COULD PRODUCE
MVFR VSBYS FROM TIEM TO TIME. AFTER 05Z...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN, WITH IFR POTENTIAL THE HIGHEST
AT KELM AND KBGM. MVFR RESTRICTIONS SEEM MORE LIKELY ELSEWHERE. AT
KELM AIRPORT MINS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z, BUT NOT QUITE
AS LIKELY AS PAST MORNINGS.

EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z
THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING FOG IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...HEDEN/MLJ





000
FXUS61 KBGM 022352
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
752 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL TEMPORARILY YIELD TO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITS
CONTROL, FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, TO BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER, AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
755 PM UPDATE...
AFTER ANALYZING LATEST T/TD TRENDS, WE DETERMINED THAT CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MET SOMEWHERE AROUND 5Z-6Z, WITH
PATCHY FOG FORMING THEREAFTER.

LIKE LAST NIGHT, FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AND NOT CONFINED TO JUST
THE RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER, FOG WON`T BE QUITE AS DENSE, DUE TO
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.


245 PM UPDATE... PATCHY FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS EXPANSIVE AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS, WE DO EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERSISTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS AWAY THURSDAY, THE MAIN THING
WE`LL BE WATCHING IS A WEAK BACK-DOOR TYPE SURFACE BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NY AND PA. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S, THE AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE, PERHAPS TO THE TUNE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, OVERALL FORCING LOOKS QUITE
UNIMPRESSIVE (VERY LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT, WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, AND A VERY WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TO BOOT). THUS, WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED
AND GARDEN VARIETY (NON-SEVERE) IN NATURE.

HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE... THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WHILE HAVING A
TENDENCY TO WASH OUT ALTOGETHER. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING. ON FRIDAY,
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES,
CLOSER TO THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL BE WARM AND RAIN-FREE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OVER THE WEEKEND, A LARGE RIDGE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THUS SHOULD RESULT IN A
RENEWED STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY SEP (HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S, AND PERHAPS NEAR 90 IN
SOME OF OUR NORMALLY WARMER VALLEY/URBAN LOCATIONS).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
.
18Z WEDNESDAY UPDATE... VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT (AFTER 05-07Z)...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN, WITH IFR POTENTIAL THE HIGHEST AT KELM AND
KBGM. MVFR RESTRICTIONS SEEM MORE LIKELY ELSEWHERE.

EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z
THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING FOG IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBGM 022352
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
752 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL TEMPORARILY YIELD TO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITS
CONTROL, FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, TO BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER, AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
755 PM UPDATE...
AFTER ANALYZING LATEST T/TD TRENDS, WE DETERMINED THAT CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MET SOMEWHERE AROUND 5Z-6Z, WITH
PATCHY FOG FORMING THEREAFTER.

LIKE LAST NIGHT, FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AND NOT CONFINED TO JUST
THE RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER, FOG WON`T BE QUITE AS DENSE, DUE TO
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.


245 PM UPDATE... PATCHY FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS EXPANSIVE AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS, WE DO EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERSISTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS AWAY THURSDAY, THE MAIN THING
WE`LL BE WATCHING IS A WEAK BACK-DOOR TYPE SURFACE BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NY AND PA. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S, THE AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE, PERHAPS TO THE TUNE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, OVERALL FORCING LOOKS QUITE
UNIMPRESSIVE (VERY LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT, WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, AND A VERY WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TO BOOT). THUS, WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED
AND GARDEN VARIETY (NON-SEVERE) IN NATURE.

HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE... THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WHILE HAVING A
TENDENCY TO WASH OUT ALTOGETHER. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING. ON FRIDAY,
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES,
CLOSER TO THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL BE WARM AND RAIN-FREE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OVER THE WEEKEND, A LARGE RIDGE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THUS SHOULD RESULT IN A
RENEWED STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY SEP (HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S, AND PERHAPS NEAR 90 IN
SOME OF OUR NORMALLY WARMER VALLEY/URBAN LOCATIONS).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
.
18Z WEDNESDAY UPDATE... VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT (AFTER 05-07Z)...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN, WITH IFR POTENTIAL THE HIGHEST AT KELM AND
KBGM. MVFR RESTRICTIONS SEEM MORE LIKELY ELSEWHERE.

EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z
THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING FOG IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ





000
FXUS61 KBGM 022352
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
752 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL TEMPORARILY YIELD TO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITS
CONTROL, FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, TO BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER, AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
755 PM UPDATE...
AFTER ANALYZING LATEST T/TD TRENDS, WE DETERMINED THAT CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MET SOMEWHERE AROUND 5Z-6Z, WITH
PATCHY FOG FORMING THEREAFTER.

LIKE LAST NIGHT, FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AND NOT CONFINED TO JUST
THE RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER, FOG WON`T BE QUITE AS DENSE, DUE TO
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.


245 PM UPDATE... PATCHY FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS EXPANSIVE AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS, WE DO EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERSISTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS AWAY THURSDAY, THE MAIN THING
WE`LL BE WATCHING IS A WEAK BACK-DOOR TYPE SURFACE BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NY AND PA. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S, THE AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE, PERHAPS TO THE TUNE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, OVERALL FORCING LOOKS QUITE
UNIMPRESSIVE (VERY LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT, WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, AND A VERY WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TO BOOT). THUS, WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED
AND GARDEN VARIETY (NON-SEVERE) IN NATURE.

HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE... THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WHILE HAVING A
TENDENCY TO WASH OUT ALTOGETHER. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING. ON FRIDAY,
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES,
CLOSER TO THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL BE WARM AND RAIN-FREE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OVER THE WEEKEND, A LARGE RIDGE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THUS SHOULD RESULT IN A
RENEWED STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY SEP (HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S, AND PERHAPS NEAR 90 IN
SOME OF OUR NORMALLY WARMER VALLEY/URBAN LOCATIONS).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
.
18Z WEDNESDAY UPDATE... VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT (AFTER 05-07Z)...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN, WITH IFR POTENTIAL THE HIGHEST AT KELM AND
KBGM. MVFR RESTRICTIONS SEEM MORE LIKELY ELSEWHERE.

EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z
THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING FOG IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ





000
FXUS61 KBGM 022352
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
752 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL TEMPORARILY YIELD TO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITS
CONTROL, FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, TO BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER, AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
755 PM UPDATE...
AFTER ANALYZING LATEST T/TD TRENDS, WE DETERMINED THAT CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MET SOMEWHERE AROUND 5Z-6Z, WITH
PATCHY FOG FORMING THEREAFTER.

LIKE LAST NIGHT, FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AND NOT CONFINED TO JUST
THE RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER, FOG WON`T BE QUITE AS DENSE, DUE TO
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.


245 PM UPDATE... PATCHY FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS EXPANSIVE AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS, WE DO EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERSISTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS AWAY THURSDAY, THE MAIN THING
WE`LL BE WATCHING IS A WEAK BACK-DOOR TYPE SURFACE BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NY AND PA. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S, THE AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE, PERHAPS TO THE TUNE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, OVERALL FORCING LOOKS QUITE
UNIMPRESSIVE (VERY LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT, WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, AND A VERY WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TO BOOT). THUS, WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED
AND GARDEN VARIETY (NON-SEVERE) IN NATURE.

HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE... THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WHILE HAVING A
TENDENCY TO WASH OUT ALTOGETHER. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING. ON FRIDAY,
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES,
CLOSER TO THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL BE WARM AND RAIN-FREE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OVER THE WEEKEND, A LARGE RIDGE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THUS SHOULD RESULT IN A
RENEWED STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY SEP (HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S, AND PERHAPS NEAR 90 IN
SOME OF OUR NORMALLY WARMER VALLEY/URBAN LOCATIONS).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
.
18Z WEDNESDAY UPDATE... VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT (AFTER 05-07Z)...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN, WITH IFR POTENTIAL THE HIGHEST AT KELM AND
KBGM. MVFR RESTRICTIONS SEEM MORE LIKELY ELSEWHERE.

EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z
THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING FOG IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBGM 021902
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
302 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL TEMPORARILY YIELD TO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITS
CONTROL, FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, TO BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER, AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE... PATCHY FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS EXPANSIVE AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS, WE DO EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERSISTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS AWAY THURSDAY, THE MAIN THING
WE`LL BE WATCHING IS A WEAK BACK-DOOR TYPE SURFACE BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NY AND PA. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S, THE AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE, PERHAPS TO THE TUNE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, OVERALL FORCING LOOKS QUITE
UNIMPRESSIVE (VERY LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT, WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, AND A VERY WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TO BOOT). THUS, WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED
AND GARDEN VARIETY (NON-SEVERE) IN NATURE.

HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE... THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WHILE HAVING A
TENDENCY TO WASH OUT ALTOGETHER. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING. ON FRIDAY,
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES,
CLOSER TO THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL BE WARM AND RAIN-FREE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OVER THE WEEKEND, A LARGE RIDGE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THUS SHOULD RESULT IN A
RENEWED STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY SEP (HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S, AND PERHAPS NEAR 90 IN
SOME OF OUR NORMALLY WARMER VALLEY/URBAN LOCATIONS).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... .
18Z WEDNESDAY UPDATE... VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT (AFTER 05-07Z)...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN, WITH IFR POTENTIAL THE HIGHEST AT KELM AND
KBGM. MVFR RESTRICTIONS SEEM MORE LIKELY ELSEWHERE.

EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z
THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING FOG IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBGM 021902
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
302 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL TEMPORARILY YIELD TO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITS
CONTROL, FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, TO BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER, AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE... PATCHY FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS EXPANSIVE AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS, WE DO EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERSISTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS AWAY THURSDAY, THE MAIN THING
WE`LL BE WATCHING IS A WEAK BACK-DOOR TYPE SURFACE BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NY AND PA. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S, THE AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE, PERHAPS TO THE TUNE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, OVERALL FORCING LOOKS QUITE
UNIMPRESSIVE (VERY LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT, WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, AND A VERY WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TO BOOT). THUS, WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED
AND GARDEN VARIETY (NON-SEVERE) IN NATURE.

HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE... THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WHILE HAVING A
TENDENCY TO WASH OUT ALTOGETHER. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING. ON FRIDAY,
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES,
CLOSER TO THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL BE WARM AND RAIN-FREE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OVER THE WEEKEND, A LARGE RIDGE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THUS SHOULD RESULT IN A
RENEWED STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY SEP (HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S, AND PERHAPS NEAR 90 IN
SOME OF OUR NORMALLY WARMER VALLEY/URBAN LOCATIONS).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... .
18Z WEDNESDAY UPDATE... VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT (AFTER 05-07Z)...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN, WITH IFR POTENTIAL THE HIGHEST AT KELM AND
KBGM. MVFR RESTRICTIONS SEEM MORE LIKELY ELSEWHERE.

EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z
THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING FOG IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ





000
FXUS61 KBGM 021902
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
302 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL TEMPORARILY YIELD TO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITS
CONTROL, FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, TO BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER, AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE... PATCHY FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS EXPANSIVE AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS, WE DO EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERSISTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS AWAY THURSDAY, THE MAIN THING
WE`LL BE WATCHING IS A WEAK BACK-DOOR TYPE SURFACE BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NY AND PA. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S, THE AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE, PERHAPS TO THE TUNE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, OVERALL FORCING LOOKS QUITE
UNIMPRESSIVE (VERY LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT, WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, AND A VERY WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TO BOOT). THUS, WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED
AND GARDEN VARIETY (NON-SEVERE) IN NATURE.

HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE... THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WHILE HAVING A
TENDENCY TO WASH OUT ALTOGETHER. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING. ON FRIDAY,
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES,
CLOSER TO THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL BE WARM AND RAIN-FREE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OVER THE WEEKEND, A LARGE RIDGE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THUS SHOULD RESULT IN A
RENEWED STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY SEP (HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S, AND PERHAPS NEAR 90 IN
SOME OF OUR NORMALLY WARMER VALLEY/URBAN LOCATIONS).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... .
18Z WEDNESDAY UPDATE... VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT (AFTER 05-07Z)...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN, WITH IFR POTENTIAL THE HIGHEST AT KELM AND
KBGM. MVFR RESTRICTIONS SEEM MORE LIKELY ELSEWHERE.

EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z
THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING FOG IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBGM 021437
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1037 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE... "STEADY AS SHE GOES" WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG/STRATUS IS ERODING AWAY ACROSS THE TWIN
TIERS LATE THIS MORNING, ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. MEANWHILE, A MORE
STUBBORN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUES OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND MOHAWK
VALLEY REGIONS. ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER, WE STILL
EXPECT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AS WELL, GENERALLY IN THE
11 AM TO 1 PM TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE, WE`LL ENJOY ANOTHER PARTLY-
MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST MESO-ANALYSES SHOW A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO ACROSS
WESTERN NY, WESTERN PA, AND SOUTHEAST OH AT THIS TIME. THE TWO
MAIN CENTERS OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY, HOWEVER, SHOULD TRACK BOTH
WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS ONT/QUE, AND ALSO WELL TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH WV AND VA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, ANY MINOR
INSTABILITY THAT BUILDS UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HAVE
INSUFFICIENT LIFT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. THUS, PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 20% AREA-WIDE.

THE LATEST HI-RESOLUTION TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS OUR
EARLIER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND DENSE FOG HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT DENSE FOG TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
MORNING. FOG WILL LIFT BETWEEN 14-15Z. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS
ROUNDING THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
OHIO. THIS WAVE WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY AND BECOME WASHED OUT OVER
PA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE... MAINLY OVER NE PA. THIS WAVE MAY CREATE A SHOWER
OR TWO... BUT FOR THE MOST PART... THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY
TODAY.

LATE TONIGHT A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE OVER WESTERN
NEW YORK AROUND 03Z THURS. THIS WAVE MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP WED NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE NORM THIS AFTERNOON... REACHING THE MID
TO UPPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING AND REACH WESTERN NY BY AROUND 15Z. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
PROBABLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. STILL DO
NOT THINK ANY STORMS WILL BE SEVERE... JUST LOWER TEMPS. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NEPA FRI AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE UPPR LVL RIDGE REGAINS CONTROL OF THE REGION. FRI
EVENING THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WHICH WILL END
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE: THE ONLY CHANGES THAT WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS LONG
RANGE FORECAST WERE TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FOR NEXT TUESDAY BASED
ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH ARE SLOWER WITH FRONT. WE ALSO RAISED
THE DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE LONG RANGE BY COPYING IN THE
LATEST SUPERBLEND. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL HOLDS. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


TUESDAY PM UPDATE: RIDGING CONTROLS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE NEW EURO TRIES TO SQUEEZE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...THINK THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH
THE RIDGE RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. RIDGING
SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY...THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS MORE
THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE THREE DAYS. A FRONT DROPS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MAY HOLD THE
PRECIP OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT RAIN
CHANCES THERE BEFORE SFC HIGH MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ARE RESULTING IN RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST
SITES THIS MORNING WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OCCURRING FOR
KELM/KBGM. BOTH THESE SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE RESTRICTIONS AT
TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT
OCCURRING FROM 13-15Z. MEANWHILE FOR KITH/KSYR/KRME LOOKING AT
MAINLY MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. BEYOND
THIS TIME VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AT ALL SITES
WITH JUST SOME SCT CU.

EXPECT RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN SITES
(KITH/KELM/KBGM) ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS OF MIST AND
FOG...THICKEST FOR KELM AS USUAL. WE DO NOT BRING IN RESTRICTIONS
FOR KSYR/KRME FOR THIS TIME AS APPROACHING FRONT WILL BE BRINGING
IN HIGH CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD TEND TO MITIGATE FOG FORMATION.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...ABS/PCF
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 021437
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1037 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE... "STEADY AS SHE GOES" WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG/STRATUS IS ERODING AWAY ACROSS THE TWIN
TIERS LATE THIS MORNING, ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. MEANWHILE, A MORE
STUBBORN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUES OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND MOHAWK
VALLEY REGIONS. ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER, WE STILL
EXPECT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AS WELL, GENERALLY IN THE
11 AM TO 1 PM TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE, WE`LL ENJOY ANOTHER PARTLY-
MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST MESO-ANALYSES SHOW A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO ACROSS
WESTERN NY, WESTERN PA, AND SOUTHEAST OH AT THIS TIME. THE TWO
MAIN CENTERS OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY, HOWEVER, SHOULD TRACK BOTH
WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS ONT/QUE, AND ALSO WELL TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH WV AND VA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, ANY MINOR
INSTABILITY THAT BUILDS UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HAVE
INSUFFICIENT LIFT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. THUS, PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 20% AREA-WIDE.

THE LATEST HI-RESOLUTION TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS OUR
EARLIER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND DENSE FOG HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT DENSE FOG TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
MORNING. FOG WILL LIFT BETWEEN 14-15Z. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS
ROUNDING THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
OHIO. THIS WAVE WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY AND BECOME WASHED OUT OVER
PA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE... MAINLY OVER NE PA. THIS WAVE MAY CREATE A SHOWER
OR TWO... BUT FOR THE MOST PART... THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY
TODAY.

LATE TONIGHT A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE OVER WESTERN
NEW YORK AROUND 03Z THURS. THIS WAVE MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP WED NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE NORM THIS AFTERNOON... REACHING THE MID
TO UPPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING AND REACH WESTERN NY BY AROUND 15Z. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
PROBABLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. STILL DO
NOT THINK ANY STORMS WILL BE SEVERE... JUST LOWER TEMPS. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NEPA FRI AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE UPPR LVL RIDGE REGAINS CONTROL OF THE REGION. FRI
EVENING THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WHICH WILL END
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE: THE ONLY CHANGES THAT WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS LONG
RANGE FORECAST WERE TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FOR NEXT TUESDAY BASED
ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH ARE SLOWER WITH FRONT. WE ALSO RAISED
THE DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE LONG RANGE BY COPYING IN THE
LATEST SUPERBLEND. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL HOLDS. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


TUESDAY PM UPDATE: RIDGING CONTROLS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE NEW EURO TRIES TO SQUEEZE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...THINK THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH
THE RIDGE RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. RIDGING
SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY...THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS MORE
THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE THREE DAYS. A FRONT DROPS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MAY HOLD THE
PRECIP OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT RAIN
CHANCES THERE BEFORE SFC HIGH MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ARE RESULTING IN RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST
SITES THIS MORNING WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OCCURRING FOR
KELM/KBGM. BOTH THESE SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE RESTRICTIONS AT
TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT
OCCURRING FROM 13-15Z. MEANWHILE FOR KITH/KSYR/KRME LOOKING AT
MAINLY MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. BEYOND
THIS TIME VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AT ALL SITES
WITH JUST SOME SCT CU.

EXPECT RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN SITES
(KITH/KELM/KBGM) ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS OF MIST AND
FOG...THICKEST FOR KELM AS USUAL. WE DO NOT BRING IN RESTRICTIONS
FOR KSYR/KRME FOR THIS TIME AS APPROACHING FRONT WILL BE BRINGING
IN HIGH CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD TEND TO MITIGATE FOG FORMATION.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...ABS/PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 021437
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1037 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE... "STEADY AS SHE GOES" WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG/STRATUS IS ERODING AWAY ACROSS THE TWIN
TIERS LATE THIS MORNING, ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. MEANWHILE, A MORE
STUBBORN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUES OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND MOHAWK
VALLEY REGIONS. ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER, WE STILL
EXPECT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AS WELL, GENERALLY IN THE
11 AM TO 1 PM TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE, WE`LL ENJOY ANOTHER PARTLY-
MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST MESO-ANALYSES SHOW A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO ACROSS
WESTERN NY, WESTERN PA, AND SOUTHEAST OH AT THIS TIME. THE TWO
MAIN CENTERS OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY, HOWEVER, SHOULD TRACK BOTH
WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS ONT/QUE, AND ALSO WELL TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH WV AND VA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, ANY MINOR
INSTABILITY THAT BUILDS UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HAVE
INSUFFICIENT LIFT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. THUS, PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 20% AREA-WIDE.

THE LATEST HI-RESOLUTION TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS OUR
EARLIER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND DENSE FOG HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT DENSE FOG TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
MORNING. FOG WILL LIFT BETWEEN 14-15Z. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS
ROUNDING THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
OHIO. THIS WAVE WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY AND BECOME WASHED OUT OVER
PA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE... MAINLY OVER NE PA. THIS WAVE MAY CREATE A SHOWER
OR TWO... BUT FOR THE MOST PART... THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY
TODAY.

LATE TONIGHT A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE OVER WESTERN
NEW YORK AROUND 03Z THURS. THIS WAVE MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP WED NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE NORM THIS AFTERNOON... REACHING THE MID
TO UPPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING AND REACH WESTERN NY BY AROUND 15Z. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
PROBABLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. STILL DO
NOT THINK ANY STORMS WILL BE SEVERE... JUST LOWER TEMPS. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NEPA FRI AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE UPPR LVL RIDGE REGAINS CONTROL OF THE REGION. FRI
EVENING THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WHICH WILL END
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE: THE ONLY CHANGES THAT WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS LONG
RANGE FORECAST WERE TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FOR NEXT TUESDAY BASED
ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH ARE SLOWER WITH FRONT. WE ALSO RAISED
THE DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE LONG RANGE BY COPYING IN THE
LATEST SUPERBLEND. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL HOLDS. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


TUESDAY PM UPDATE: RIDGING CONTROLS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE NEW EURO TRIES TO SQUEEZE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...THINK THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH
THE RIDGE RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. RIDGING
SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY...THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS MORE
THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE THREE DAYS. A FRONT DROPS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MAY HOLD THE
PRECIP OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT RAIN
CHANCES THERE BEFORE SFC HIGH MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ARE RESULTING IN RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST
SITES THIS MORNING WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OCCURRING FOR
KELM/KBGM. BOTH THESE SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE RESTRICTIONS AT
TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT
OCCURRING FROM 13-15Z. MEANWHILE FOR KITH/KSYR/KRME LOOKING AT
MAINLY MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. BEYOND
THIS TIME VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AT ALL SITES
WITH JUST SOME SCT CU.

EXPECT RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN SITES
(KITH/KELM/KBGM) ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS OF MIST AND
FOG...THICKEST FOR KELM AS USUAL. WE DO NOT BRING IN RESTRICTIONS
FOR KSYR/KRME FOR THIS TIME AS APPROACHING FRONT WILL BE BRINGING
IN HIGH CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD TEND TO MITIGATE FOG FORMATION.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...ABS/PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 021437
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1037 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE... "STEADY AS SHE GOES" WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG/STRATUS IS ERODING AWAY ACROSS THE TWIN
TIERS LATE THIS MORNING, ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. MEANWHILE, A MORE
STUBBORN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUES OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND MOHAWK
VALLEY REGIONS. ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER, WE STILL
EXPECT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AS WELL, GENERALLY IN THE
11 AM TO 1 PM TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE, WE`LL ENJOY ANOTHER PARTLY-
MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST MESO-ANALYSES SHOW A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO ACROSS
WESTERN NY, WESTERN PA, AND SOUTHEAST OH AT THIS TIME. THE TWO
MAIN CENTERS OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY, HOWEVER, SHOULD TRACK BOTH
WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS ONT/QUE, AND ALSO WELL TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH WV AND VA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, ANY MINOR
INSTABILITY THAT BUILDS UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HAVE
INSUFFICIENT LIFT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. THUS, PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 20% AREA-WIDE.

THE LATEST HI-RESOLUTION TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS OUR
EARLIER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND DENSE FOG HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT DENSE FOG TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
MORNING. FOG WILL LIFT BETWEEN 14-15Z. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS
ROUNDING THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
OHIO. THIS WAVE WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY AND BECOME WASHED OUT OVER
PA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE... MAINLY OVER NE PA. THIS WAVE MAY CREATE A SHOWER
OR TWO... BUT FOR THE MOST PART... THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY
TODAY.

LATE TONIGHT A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE OVER WESTERN
NEW YORK AROUND 03Z THURS. THIS WAVE MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP WED NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE NORM THIS AFTERNOON... REACHING THE MID
TO UPPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING AND REACH WESTERN NY BY AROUND 15Z. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
PROBABLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. STILL DO
NOT THINK ANY STORMS WILL BE SEVERE... JUST LOWER TEMPS. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NEPA FRI AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE UPPR LVL RIDGE REGAINS CONTROL OF THE REGION. FRI
EVENING THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WHICH WILL END
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE: THE ONLY CHANGES THAT WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS LONG
RANGE FORECAST WERE TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FOR NEXT TUESDAY BASED
ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH ARE SLOWER WITH FRONT. WE ALSO RAISED
THE DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE LONG RANGE BY COPYING IN THE
LATEST SUPERBLEND. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL HOLDS. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


TUESDAY PM UPDATE: RIDGING CONTROLS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE NEW EURO TRIES TO SQUEEZE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...THINK THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH
THE RIDGE RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. RIDGING
SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY...THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS MORE
THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE THREE DAYS. A FRONT DROPS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MAY HOLD THE
PRECIP OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT RAIN
CHANCES THERE BEFORE SFC HIGH MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ARE RESULTING IN RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST
SITES THIS MORNING WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OCCURRING FOR
KELM/KBGM. BOTH THESE SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE RESTRICTIONS AT
TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT
OCCURRING FROM 13-15Z. MEANWHILE FOR KITH/KSYR/KRME LOOKING AT
MAINLY MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. BEYOND
THIS TIME VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AT ALL SITES
WITH JUST SOME SCT CU.

EXPECT RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN SITES
(KITH/KELM/KBGM) ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS OF MIST AND
FOG...THICKEST FOR KELM AS USUAL. WE DO NOT BRING IN RESTRICTIONS
FOR KSYR/KRME FOR THIS TIME AS APPROACHING FRONT WILL BE BRINGING
IN HIGH CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD TEND TO MITIGATE FOG FORMATION.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...ABS/PCF
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 021058
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
658 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
DENSE FOG HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MORNING. FOG WILL LIFT BETWEEN
14-15Z. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS ROUNDING THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE
AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER OHIO. THIS WAVE WILL DRIFT EAST
TODAY AND BECOME WASHED OUT OVER PA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE... MAINLY OVER NE
PA. THIS WAVE MAY CREATE A SHOWER OR TWO... BUT FOR THE MOST
PART... THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY TODAY.

LATE TONIGHT A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE OVER WESTERN
NEW YORK AROUND 03Z THURS. THIS WAVE MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP WED NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE NORM THIS AFTERNOON... REACHING THE MID
TO UPPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING AND REACH WESTERN NY BY AROUND 15Z. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
PROBABLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. STILL DO
NOT THINK ANY STORMS WILL BE SEVERE... JUST LOWER TEMPS. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NEPA FRI AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE UPPR LVL RIDGE REGAINS CONTROL OF THE REGION. FRI
EVENING THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WHICH WILL END
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE: THE ONLY CHANGES THAT WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS LONG
RANGE FORECAST WERE TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FOR NEXT TUESDAY BASED
ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH ARE SLOWER WITH FRONT. WE ALSO RAISED
THE DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE LONG RANGE BY COPYING IN THE
LATEST SUPERBLEND. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL HOLDS. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


TUESDAY PM UPDATE: RIDGING CONTROLS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE NEW EURO TRIES TO SQUEEZE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...THINK THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH
THE RIDGE RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. RIDGING
SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY...THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS MORE
THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE THREE DAYS. A FRONT DROPS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MAY HOLD THE
PRECIP OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT RAIN
CHANCES THERE BEFORE SFC HIGH MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ARE RESULTING IN RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST
SITES THIS MORNING WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OCCURRING FOR
KELM/KBGM. BOTH THESE SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE RESTRICTIONS AT
TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT
OCCURRING FROM 13-15Z. MEANWHILE FOR KITH/KSYR/KRME LOOKING AT
MAINLY MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. BEYOND
THIS TIME VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AT ALL SITES
WITH JUST SOME SCT CU.

EXPECT RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN SITES
(KITH/KELM/KBGM) ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS OF MIST AND
FOG...THICKEST FOR KELM AS USUAL. WE DO NOT BRING IN RESTRICTIONS
FOR KSYR/KRME FOR THIS TIME AS APPROACHING FRONT WILL BE BRINGING
IN HIGH CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD TEND TO MITIGATE FOG FORMATION.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...ABS/PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 020714
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
314 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
DENSE FOG HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MORNING. FOG WILL LIFT BETWEEN
14-15Z. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS ROUNDING THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE
AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER OHIO. THIS WAVE WILL DRIFT EAST
TODAY AND BECOME WASHED OUT OVER PA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE... MAINLY OVER NE
PA. THIS WAVE MAY CREATE A SHOWER OR TWO... BUT FOR THE MOST
PART... THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY TODAY.

LATE TONIGHT A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE OVER WESTERN
NEW YORK AROUND 03Z THURS. THIS WAVE MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP WED NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE NORM THIS AFTERNOON... REACHING THE MID
TO UPPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING AND REACH WESTERN NY BY AROUND 15Z. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
PROBABLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. STILL DO
NOT THINK ANY STORMS WILL BE SEVERE... JUST LOWER TEMPS. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NEPA FRI AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE UPPR LVL RIDGE REGAINS CONTROL OF THE REGION. FRI
EVENING THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WHICH WILL END
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE: THE ONLY CHANGES THAT WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS LONG
RANGE FORECAST WERE TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FOR NEXT TUESDAY BASED
ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH ARE SLOWER WITH FRONT. WE ALSO RAISED
THE DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE LONG RANGE BY COPYING IN THE
LATEST SUPERBLEND. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL HOLDS. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


TUESDAY PM UPDATE: RIDGING CONTROLS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE NEW EURO TRIES TO SQUEEZE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...THINK THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH
THE RIDGE RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. RIDGING
SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY...THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS MORE
THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE THREE DAYS. A FRONT DROPS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MAY HOLD THE
PRECIP OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT RAIN
CHANCES THERE BEFORE SFC HIGH MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. KELM IS ALREADY SEEING
VISBYS DROPPING AT TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS. EXPECT VISBYS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING HERE TO BE
PREDOMINATELY BELOW ALT MINS AND AT TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS.
ELSEWHERE, TREND WILL BE FOR VISBYS TO CONTINUE FALLING AROUND
KITH..LIKELY GOING BELOW ALT MINS AT TIMES BETWEEN 08-12Z. FOR
KBGM, TEMP STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CROSS OVER TEMP SO EXPECT A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE RESTRICTIONS OCCUR STARTING NEAR
08Z...EXPECT MVFR VISBYS DROPPING AT TIMES BELOW ALT MINS DOWN TO
A HALF MILE. REMAINING SITES, KAVP/KSYR/KRME, LOOK TO SEE MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES BY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RESTRICTIONS LIFT AT SITES THROUGH THE 13-15Z TIME PERIOD WITH
JUST SOME DIURNAL CU REMAINDER OF THE DAY.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...ABS/PCF
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 020714
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
314 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
DENSE FOG HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MORNING. FOG WILL LIFT BETWEEN
14-15Z. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS ROUNDING THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE
AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER OHIO. THIS WAVE WILL DRIFT EAST
TODAY AND BECOME WASHED OUT OVER PA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE
WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE... MAINLY OVER NE
PA. THIS WAVE MAY CREATE A SHOWER OR TWO... BUT FOR THE MOST
PART... THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY TODAY.

LATE TONIGHT A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE OVER WESTERN
NEW YORK AROUND 03Z THURS. THIS WAVE MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP WED NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE NORM THIS AFTERNOON... REACHING THE MID
TO UPPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING AND REACH WESTERN NY BY AROUND 15Z. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
PROBABLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. STILL DO
NOT THINK ANY STORMS WILL BE SEVERE... JUST LOWER TEMPS. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NEPA FRI AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE UPPR LVL RIDGE REGAINS CONTROL OF THE REGION. FRI
EVENING THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WHICH WILL END
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE: THE ONLY CHANGES THAT WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS LONG
RANGE FORECAST WERE TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FOR NEXT TUESDAY BASED
ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH ARE SLOWER WITH FRONT. WE ALSO RAISED
THE DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE LONG RANGE BY COPYING IN THE
LATEST SUPERBLEND. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL HOLDS. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


TUESDAY PM UPDATE: RIDGING CONTROLS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE NEW EURO TRIES TO SQUEEZE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...THINK THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH
THE RIDGE RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. RIDGING
SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY...THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS MORE
THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE THREE DAYS. A FRONT DROPS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MAY HOLD THE
PRECIP OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT RAIN
CHANCES THERE BEFORE SFC HIGH MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. KELM IS ALREADY SEEING
VISBYS DROPPING AT TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS. EXPECT VISBYS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING HERE TO BE
PREDOMINATELY BELOW ALT MINS AND AT TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS.
ELSEWHERE, TREND WILL BE FOR VISBYS TO CONTINUE FALLING AROUND
KITH..LIKELY GOING BELOW ALT MINS AT TIMES BETWEEN 08-12Z. FOR
KBGM, TEMP STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CROSS OVER TEMP SO EXPECT A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE RESTRICTIONS OCCUR STARTING NEAR
08Z...EXPECT MVFR VISBYS DROPPING AT TIMES BELOW ALT MINS DOWN TO
A HALF MILE. REMAINING SITES, KAVP/KSYR/KRME, LOOK TO SEE MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES BY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RESTRICTIONS LIFT AT SITES THROUGH THE 13-15Z TIME PERIOD WITH
JUST SOME DIURNAL CU REMAINDER OF THE DAY.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...ABS/PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 020650
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
250 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
835 PM UPDATE...
LATEST ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE AND CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE SUGGESTS
FOG WILL FORM BETWEEN 6Z AND 8Z. FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT
AND DENSE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.

MINOR UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWS FOR VERY HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE PERIOD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTROL THE REGION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS THE LAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE
REGION BY LATE EVENING...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FOG BURNING OFF BY LATE MORNING...HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...NEARLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. SOME FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT MAY LIMIT
THIS FROM CREATING MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION TO VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS...JUST SOME RAIN TO COOL DOWN THE TEMPS SOME
AT BEST. HAVE UPPED THE POPS SOME SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...THOUGH THE LATEST EURO WAS
DRIER. LOW CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM GOOD EVEN WITH THAT SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE. DRYING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY. VERY SMALL AFTN CHANCE
FOR POPS ACROSS NE PA FRIDAY AFTN...OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY ACROSS
THE REGION. RIDGING CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE: THE ONLY CHANGES THAT WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS LONG
RANGE FORECAST WERE TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FOR NEXT TUESDAY BASED
ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH ARE SLOWER WITH FRONT. WE ALSO RAISED
THE DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE LONG RANGE BY COPYING IN THE
LATEST SUPERBLEND. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL HOLDS. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


TUESDAY PM UPDATE: RIDGING CONTROLS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE NEW EURO TRIES TO SQUEEZE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...THINK THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH
THE RIDGE RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. RIDGING
SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY...THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS MORE
THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE THREE DAYS. A FRONT DROPS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MAY HOLD THE
PRECIP OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT RAIN
CHANCES THERE BEFORE SFC HIGH MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. KELM IS ALREADY SEEING
VISBYS DROPPING AT TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS. EXPECT VISBYS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING HERE TO BE
PREDOMINATELY BELOW ALT MINS AND AT TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS.
ELSEWHERE, TREND WILL BE FOR VISBYS TO CONTINUE FALLING AROUND
KITH..LIKELY GOING BELOW ALT MINS AT TIMES BETWEEN 08-12Z. FOR
KBGM, TEMP STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CROSS OVER TEMP SO EXPECT A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE RESTRICTIONS OCCUR STARTING NEAR
08Z...EXPECT MVFR VISBYS DROPPING AT TIMES BELOW ALT MINS DOWN TO
A HALF MILE. REMAINING SITES, KAVP/KSYR/KRME, LOOK TO SEE MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES BY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RESTRICTIONS LIFT AT SITES THROUGH THE 13-15Z TIME PERIOD WITH
JUST SOME DIURNAL CU REMAINDER OF THE DAY.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS/DJP
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS/PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 020650
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
250 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
835 PM UPDATE...
LATEST ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE AND CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE SUGGESTS
FOG WILL FORM BETWEEN 6Z AND 8Z. FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT
AND DENSE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.

MINOR UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWS FOR VERY HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE PERIOD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTROL THE REGION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS THE LAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE
REGION BY LATE EVENING...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FOG BURNING OFF BY LATE MORNING...HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...NEARLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. SOME FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT MAY LIMIT
THIS FROM CREATING MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION TO VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS...JUST SOME RAIN TO COOL DOWN THE TEMPS SOME
AT BEST. HAVE UPPED THE POPS SOME SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...THOUGH THE LATEST EURO WAS
DRIER. LOW CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM GOOD EVEN WITH THAT SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE. DRYING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY. VERY SMALL AFTN CHANCE
FOR POPS ACROSS NE PA FRIDAY AFTN...OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY ACROSS
THE REGION. RIDGING CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE: THE ONLY CHANGES THAT WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS LONG
RANGE FORECAST WERE TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FOR NEXT TUESDAY BASED
ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH ARE SLOWER WITH FRONT. WE ALSO RAISED
THE DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE LONG RANGE BY COPYING IN THE
LATEST SUPERBLEND. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL HOLDS. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


TUESDAY PM UPDATE: RIDGING CONTROLS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE NEW EURO TRIES TO SQUEEZE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...THINK THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH
THE RIDGE RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. RIDGING
SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY...THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS MORE
THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE THREE DAYS. A FRONT DROPS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MAY HOLD THE
PRECIP OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT RAIN
CHANCES THERE BEFORE SFC HIGH MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. KELM IS ALREADY SEEING
VISBYS DROPPING AT TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS. EXPECT VISBYS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING HERE TO BE
PREDOMINATELY BELOW ALT MINS AND AT TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS.
ELSEWHERE, TREND WILL BE FOR VISBYS TO CONTINUE FALLING AROUND
KITH..LIKELY GOING BELOW ALT MINS AT TIMES BETWEEN 08-12Z. FOR
KBGM, TEMP STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CROSS OVER TEMP SO EXPECT A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE RESTRICTIONS OCCUR STARTING NEAR
08Z...EXPECT MVFR VISBYS DROPPING AT TIMES BELOW ALT MINS DOWN TO
A HALF MILE. REMAINING SITES, KAVP/KSYR/KRME, LOOK TO SEE MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES BY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RESTRICTIONS LIFT AT SITES THROUGH THE 13-15Z TIME PERIOD WITH
JUST SOME DIURNAL CU REMAINDER OF THE DAY.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS/DJP
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS/PCF
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 020650
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
250 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
835 PM UPDATE...
LATEST ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE AND CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE SUGGESTS
FOG WILL FORM BETWEEN 6Z AND 8Z. FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT
AND DENSE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.

MINOR UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWS FOR VERY HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE PERIOD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTROL THE REGION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS THE LAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE
REGION BY LATE EVENING...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FOG BURNING OFF BY LATE MORNING...HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...NEARLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. SOME FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT MAY LIMIT
THIS FROM CREATING MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION TO VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS...JUST SOME RAIN TO COOL DOWN THE TEMPS SOME
AT BEST. HAVE UPPED THE POPS SOME SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...THOUGH THE LATEST EURO WAS
DRIER. LOW CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM GOOD EVEN WITH THAT SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE. DRYING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY. VERY SMALL AFTN CHANCE
FOR POPS ACROSS NE PA FRIDAY AFTN...OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY ACROSS
THE REGION. RIDGING CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE: THE ONLY CHANGES THAT WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS LONG
RANGE FORECAST WERE TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FOR NEXT TUESDAY BASED
ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH ARE SLOWER WITH FRONT. WE ALSO RAISED
THE DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE LONG RANGE BY COPYING IN THE
LATEST SUPERBLEND. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL HOLDS. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


TUESDAY PM UPDATE: RIDGING CONTROLS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE NEW EURO TRIES TO SQUEEZE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...THINK THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH
THE RIDGE RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. RIDGING
SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY...THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS MORE
THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE THREE DAYS. A FRONT DROPS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MAY HOLD THE
PRECIP OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT RAIN
CHANCES THERE BEFORE SFC HIGH MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. KELM IS ALREADY SEEING
VISBYS DROPPING AT TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS. EXPECT VISBYS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING HERE TO BE
PREDOMINATELY BELOW ALT MINS AND AT TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS.
ELSEWHERE, TREND WILL BE FOR VISBYS TO CONTINUE FALLING AROUND
KITH..LIKELY GOING BELOW ALT MINS AT TIMES BETWEEN 08-12Z. FOR
KBGM, TEMP STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CROSS OVER TEMP SO EXPECT A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE RESTRICTIONS OCCUR STARTING NEAR
08Z...EXPECT MVFR VISBYS DROPPING AT TIMES BELOW ALT MINS DOWN TO
A HALF MILE. REMAINING SITES, KAVP/KSYR/KRME, LOOK TO SEE MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES BY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RESTRICTIONS LIFT AT SITES THROUGH THE 13-15Z TIME PERIOD WITH
JUST SOME DIURNAL CU REMAINDER OF THE DAY.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS/DJP
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS/PCF
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 020650
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
250 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
835 PM UPDATE...
LATEST ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE AND CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE SUGGESTS
FOG WILL FORM BETWEEN 6Z AND 8Z. FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT
AND DENSE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.

MINOR UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWS FOR VERY HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE PERIOD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTROL THE REGION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS THE LAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE
REGION BY LATE EVENING...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FOG BURNING OFF BY LATE MORNING...HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...NEARLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. SOME FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT MAY LIMIT
THIS FROM CREATING MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION TO VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS...JUST SOME RAIN TO COOL DOWN THE TEMPS SOME
AT BEST. HAVE UPPED THE POPS SOME SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...THOUGH THE LATEST EURO WAS
DRIER. LOW CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM GOOD EVEN WITH THAT SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE. DRYING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY. VERY SMALL AFTN CHANCE
FOR POPS ACROSS NE PA FRIDAY AFTN...OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY ACROSS
THE REGION. RIDGING CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE: THE ONLY CHANGES THAT WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS LONG
RANGE FORECAST WERE TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FOR NEXT TUESDAY BASED
ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH ARE SLOWER WITH FRONT. WE ALSO RAISED
THE DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE LONG RANGE BY COPYING IN THE
LATEST SUPERBLEND. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL HOLDS. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


TUESDAY PM UPDATE: RIDGING CONTROLS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE NEW EURO TRIES TO SQUEEZE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...THINK THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH
THE RIDGE RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. RIDGING
SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY...THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS MORE
THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE THREE DAYS. A FRONT DROPS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MAY HOLD THE
PRECIP OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT RAIN
CHANCES THERE BEFORE SFC HIGH MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. KELM IS ALREADY SEEING
VISBYS DROPPING AT TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS. EXPECT VISBYS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING HERE TO BE
PREDOMINATELY BELOW ALT MINS AND AT TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS.
ELSEWHERE, TREND WILL BE FOR VISBYS TO CONTINUE FALLING AROUND
KITH..LIKELY GOING BELOW ALT MINS AT TIMES BETWEEN 08-12Z. FOR
KBGM, TEMP STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CROSS OVER TEMP SO EXPECT A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE RESTRICTIONS OCCUR STARTING NEAR
08Z...EXPECT MVFR VISBYS DROPPING AT TIMES BELOW ALT MINS DOWN TO
A HALF MILE. REMAINING SITES, KAVP/KSYR/KRME, LOOK TO SEE MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES BY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RESTRICTIONS LIFT AT SITES THROUGH THE 13-15Z TIME PERIOD WITH
JUST SOME DIURNAL CU REMAINDER OF THE DAY.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS/DJP
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS/PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 020547
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
835 PM UPDATE...
LATEST ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE AND CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE SUGGESTS
FOG WILL FORM BETWEEN 6Z AND 8Z. FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT
AND DENSE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.

MINOR UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWS FOR VERY HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE PERIOD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTROL THE REGION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS THE LAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE
REGION BY LATE EVENING...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FOG BURNING OFF BY LATE MORNING...HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...NEARLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. SOME FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT MAY LIMIT
THIS FROM CREATING MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION TO VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS...JUST SOME RAIN TO COOL DOWN THE TEMPS SOME
AT BEST. HAVE UPPED THE POPS SOME SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...THOUGH THE LATEST EURO WAS
DRIER. LOW CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM GOOD EVEN WITH THAT SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE. DRYING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY. VERY SMALL AFTN CHANCE
FOR POPS ACROSS NE PA FRIDAY AFTN...OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY ACROSS
THE REGION. RIDGING CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING CONTROLS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NEW EURO
TRIES TO SQUEEZE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...THINK THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH THE RIDGE RIGHT
OVER THE TOP OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. RIDGING SLOWLY MOVES EAST
AND SOUTH MONDAY...THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE THREE DAYS. A FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE EURO IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MAY HOLD THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT RAIN CHANCES THERE BEFORE SFC HIGH
MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. KELM IS ALREADY SEEING
VISBYS DROPPING AT TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS. EXPECT VISBYS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING HERE TO BE
PREDOMINATELY BELOW ALT MINS AND AT TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS.
ELSEWHERE, TREND WILL BE FOR VISBYS TO CONTINUE FALLING AROUND
KITH..LIKELY GOING BELOW ALT MINS AT TIMES BETWEEN 08-12Z. FOR
KBGM, TEMP STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CROSS OVER TEMP SO EXPECT A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE RESTRICTIONS OCCUR STARTING NEAR
08Z...EXPECT MVFR VISBYS DROPPING AT TIMES BELOW ALT MINS DOWN TO
A HALF MILE. REMAINING SITES, KAVP/KSYR/KRME, LOOK TO SEE MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES BY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RESTRICTIONS LIFT AT SITES THROUGH THE 13-15Z TIME PERIOD WITH
JUST SOME DIURNAL CU REMAINDER OF THE DAY.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS/DJP
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 020547
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
147 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
835 PM UPDATE...
LATEST ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE AND CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE SUGGESTS
FOG WILL FORM BETWEEN 6Z AND 8Z. FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT
AND DENSE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.

MINOR UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWS FOR VERY HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE PERIOD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTROL THE REGION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS THE LAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE
REGION BY LATE EVENING...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FOG BURNING OFF BY LATE MORNING...HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...NEARLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. SOME FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT MAY LIMIT
THIS FROM CREATING MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION TO VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS...JUST SOME RAIN TO COOL DOWN THE TEMPS SOME
AT BEST. HAVE UPPED THE POPS SOME SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...THOUGH THE LATEST EURO WAS
DRIER. LOW CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM GOOD EVEN WITH THAT SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE. DRYING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY. VERY SMALL AFTN CHANCE
FOR POPS ACROSS NE PA FRIDAY AFTN...OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY ACROSS
THE REGION. RIDGING CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING CONTROLS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NEW EURO
TRIES TO SQUEEZE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...THINK THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH THE RIDGE RIGHT
OVER THE TOP OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. RIDGING SLOWLY MOVES EAST
AND SOUTH MONDAY...THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE THREE DAYS. A FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE EURO IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MAY HOLD THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT RAIN CHANCES THERE BEFORE SFC HIGH
MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. KELM IS ALREADY SEEING
VISBYS DROPPING AT TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS. EXPECT VISBYS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING HERE TO BE
PREDOMINATELY BELOW ALT MINS AND AT TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS.
ELSEWHERE, TREND WILL BE FOR VISBYS TO CONTINUE FALLING AROUND
KITH..LIKELY GOING BELOW ALT MINS AT TIMES BETWEEN 08-12Z. FOR
KBGM, TEMP STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CROSS OVER TEMP SO EXPECT A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE RESTRICTIONS OCCUR STARTING NEAR
08Z...EXPECT MVFR VISBYS DROPPING AT TIMES BELOW ALT MINS DOWN TO
A HALF MILE. REMAINING SITES, KAVP/KSYR/KRME, LOOK TO SEE MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES BY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RESTRICTIONS LIFT AT SITES THROUGH THE 13-15Z TIME PERIOD WITH
JUST SOME DIURNAL CU REMAINDER OF THE DAY.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS/DJP
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 020037
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
837 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
835 PM UPDATE...
LATEST ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE AND CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE SUGGESTS
FOG WILL FORM BETWEEN 6Z AND 8Z. FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT
AND DENSE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.

MINOR UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWS FOR VERY HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE PERIOD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTROL THE REGION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS THE LAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE
REGION BY LATE EVENING...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FOG BURNING OFF BY LATE MORNING...HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...NEARLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. SOME FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT MAY LIMIT
THIS FROM CREATING MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION TO VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS...JUST SOME RAIN TO COOL DOWN THE TEMPS SOME
AT BEST. HAVE UPPED THE POPS SOME SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...THOUGH THE LATEST EURO WAS
DRIER. LOW CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM GOOD EVEN WITH THAT SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE. DRYING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY. VERY SMALL AFTN CHANCE
FOR POPS ACROSS NE PA FRIDAY AFTN...OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY ACROSS
THE REGION. RIDGING CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING CONTROLS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NEW EURO
TRIES TO SQUEEZE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...THINK THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH THE RIDGE RIGHT
OVER THE TOP OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. RIDGING SLOWLY MOVES EAST
AND SOUTH MONDAY...THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE THREE DAYS. A FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE EURO IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MAY HOLD THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT RAIN CHANCES THERE BEFORE SFC HIGH
MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG AND SOME PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE...WILL LIKELY SEE IFR VSBYS AT KBGM AROUND
09-13Z...MVFR POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES. AIRPORT MINS LIKELY BY 07Z
AT KELM, WITH IFR VSBYS HERE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 03Z. FOG WILL
LIFT AFTER 14-15Z...WITH SOME DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS/DJP
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...ABS/HEDEN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 020037
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
837 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
835 PM UPDATE...
LATEST ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE AND CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE SUGGESTS
FOG WILL FORM BETWEEN 6Z AND 8Z. FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT
AND DENSE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.

MINOR UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWS FOR VERY HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE PERIOD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTROL THE REGION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS THE LAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE
REGION BY LATE EVENING...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FOG BURNING OFF BY LATE MORNING...HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...NEARLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. SOME FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT MAY LIMIT
THIS FROM CREATING MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION TO VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS...JUST SOME RAIN TO COOL DOWN THE TEMPS SOME
AT BEST. HAVE UPPED THE POPS SOME SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...THOUGH THE LATEST EURO WAS
DRIER. LOW CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM GOOD EVEN WITH THAT SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE. DRYING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY. VERY SMALL AFTN CHANCE
FOR POPS ACROSS NE PA FRIDAY AFTN...OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY ACROSS
THE REGION. RIDGING CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING CONTROLS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NEW EURO
TRIES TO SQUEEZE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...THINK THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH THE RIDGE RIGHT
OVER THE TOP OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. RIDGING SLOWLY MOVES EAST
AND SOUTH MONDAY...THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE THREE DAYS. A FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE EURO IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MAY HOLD THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT RAIN CHANCES THERE BEFORE SFC HIGH
MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG AND SOME PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE...WILL LIKELY SEE IFR VSBYS AT KBGM AROUND
09-13Z...MVFR POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES. AIRPORT MINS LIKELY BY 07Z
AT KELM, WITH IFR VSBYS HERE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 03Z. FOG WILL
LIFT AFTER 14-15Z...WITH SOME DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS/DJP
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...ABS/HEDEN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 012351
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
751 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWS FOR VERY HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE PERIOD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTROL THE REGION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS THE LAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE
REGION BY LATE EVENING...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FOG BURNING OFF BY LATE MORNING...HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...NEARLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. SOME FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT MAY LIMIT
THIS FROM CREATING MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION TO VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS...JUST SOME RAIN TO COOL DOWN THE TEMPS SOME
AT BEST. HAVE UPPED THE POPS SOME SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...THOUGH THE LATEST EURO WAS
DRIER. LOW CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM GOOD EVEN WITH THAT SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE. DRYING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY. VERY SMALL AFTN CHANCE
FOR POPS ACROSS NE PA FRIDAY AFTN...OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY ACROSS
THE REGION. RIDGING CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING CONTROLS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NEW EURO
TRIES TO SQUEEZE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...THINK THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH THE RIDGE RIGHT
OVER THE TOP OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. RIDGING SLOWLY MOVES EAST
AND SOUTH MONDAY...THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE THREE DAYS. A FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE EURO IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MAY HOLD THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT RAIN CHANCES THERE BEFORE SFC HIGH
MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG AND SOME PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE...WILL LIKELY SEE IFR VSBYS AT KBGM AROUND
09-13Z...MVFR POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES. AIRPORT MINS LIKELY BY 07Z
AT KELM, WITH IFR VSBYS HERE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 03Z. FOG WILL
LIFT AFTER 14-15Z...WITH SOME DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...ABS/HEDEN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 012351
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
751 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWS FOR VERY HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE PERIOD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTROL THE REGION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS THE LAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE
REGION BY LATE EVENING...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FOG BURNING OFF BY LATE MORNING...HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...NEARLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. SOME FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT MAY LIMIT
THIS FROM CREATING MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION TO VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS...JUST SOME RAIN TO COOL DOWN THE TEMPS SOME
AT BEST. HAVE UPPED THE POPS SOME SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...THOUGH THE LATEST EURO WAS
DRIER. LOW CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM GOOD EVEN WITH THAT SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE. DRYING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY. VERY SMALL AFTN CHANCE
FOR POPS ACROSS NE PA FRIDAY AFTN...OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY ACROSS
THE REGION. RIDGING CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING CONTROLS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NEW EURO
TRIES TO SQUEEZE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...THINK THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH THE RIDGE RIGHT
OVER THE TOP OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. RIDGING SLOWLY MOVES EAST
AND SOUTH MONDAY...THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE THREE DAYS. A FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE EURO IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MAY HOLD THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT RAIN CHANCES THERE BEFORE SFC HIGH
MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG AND SOME PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE...WILL LIKELY SEE IFR VSBYS AT KBGM AROUND
09-13Z...MVFR POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES. AIRPORT MINS LIKELY BY 07Z
AT KELM, WITH IFR VSBYS HERE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 03Z. FOG WILL
LIFT AFTER 14-15Z...WITH SOME DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...ABS/HEDEN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 011858
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
258 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWS FOR VERY HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE PERIOD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTROL THE REGION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS THE LAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE
REGION BY LATE EVENING...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FOG BURNING OFF BY LATE MORNING...HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...NEARLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. SOME FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT MAY LIMIT
THIS FROM CREATING MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION TO VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS...JUST SOME RAIN TO COOL DOWN THE TEMPS SOME
AT BEST. HAVE UPPED THE POPS SOME SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...THOUGH THE LATEST EURO WAS
DRIER. LOW CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM GOOD EVEN WITH THAT SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE. DRYING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY. VERY SMALL AFTN CHANCE
FOR POPS ACROSS NE PA FRIDAY AFTN...OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY ACROSS
THE REGION. RIDGING CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING CONTROLS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NEW EURO
TRIES TO SQUEEZE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...THINK THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH THE RIDGE RIGHT
OVER THE TOP OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. RIDGING SLOWLY MOVES EAST
AND SOUTH MONDAY...THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE THREE DAYS. A FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE EURO IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MAY HOLD THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT RAIN CHANCES THERE BEFORE SFC HIGH
MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
OCCASIONAL CIGS THROUGH 02/00Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTN/EVENING. CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
AND SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE...WILL LIKELY SEE IFR VSBYS AT KELM
AND KBGM AROUND 09-13Z...MVFR POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES. FOG WILL
LIFT AFTER 14-15Z...WITH SOME DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...ABS





000
FXUS61 KBGM 011858
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
258 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWS FOR VERY HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE PERIOD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTROL THE REGION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS THE LAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE
REGION BY LATE EVENING...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FOG BURNING OFF BY LATE MORNING...HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...NEARLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. SOME FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT MAY LIMIT
THIS FROM CREATING MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION TO VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING. NOTHING OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS...JUST SOME RAIN TO COOL DOWN THE TEMPS SOME
AT BEST. HAVE UPPED THE POPS SOME SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...THOUGH THE LATEST EURO WAS
DRIER. LOW CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM GOOD EVEN WITH THAT SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE. DRYING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY. VERY SMALL AFTN CHANCE
FOR POPS ACROSS NE PA FRIDAY AFTN...OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY ACROSS
THE REGION. RIDGING CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING CONTROLS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NEW EURO
TRIES TO SQUEEZE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...THINK THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH THE RIDGE RIGHT
OVER THE TOP OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. RIDGING SLOWLY MOVES EAST
AND SOUTH MONDAY...THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE THREE DAYS. A FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE EURO IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MAY HOLD THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT RAIN CHANCES THERE BEFORE SFC HIGH
MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
OCCASIONAL CIGS THROUGH 02/00Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTN/EVENING. CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
AND SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE...WILL LIKELY SEE IFR VSBYS AT KELM
AND KBGM AROUND 09-13Z...MVFR POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES. FOG WILL
LIFT AFTER 14-15Z...WITH SOME DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...ABS




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011726
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
126 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRADE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE: ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR
FRIDAY AS I SHAVED BACK NORTHERN EXTENT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE TWIN TIERS. OTHERWISE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR
AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC
OF A WEAK BACK- DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON
THURSDAY. THE STACKED RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD
SEE SOME INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
OCCASIONAL CIGS THROUGH 02/00Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTN/EVENING. CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
AND SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE...WILL LIKELY SEE IFR VSBYS AT KELM
AND KBGM AROUND 09-13Z...MVFR POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES. FOG WILL
LIFT AFTER 14-15Z...WITH SOME DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...ABS/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB/PCF
AVIATION...ABS




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011726
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
126 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRADE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE: ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR
FRIDAY AS I SHAVED BACK NORTHERN EXTENT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE TWIN TIERS. OTHERWISE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR
AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC
OF A WEAK BACK- DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON
THURSDAY. THE STACKED RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD
SEE SOME INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
OCCASIONAL CIGS THROUGH 02/00Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTN/EVENING. CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
AND SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE...WILL LIKELY SEE IFR VSBYS AT KELM
AND KBGM AROUND 09-13Z...MVFR POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES. FOG WILL
LIFT AFTER 14-15Z...WITH SOME DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...ABS/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB/PCF
AVIATION...ABS





000
FXUS61 KBGM 011726
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
126 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRADE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE: ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR
FRIDAY AS I SHAVED BACK NORTHERN EXTENT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE TWIN TIERS. OTHERWISE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR
AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC
OF A WEAK BACK- DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON
THURSDAY. THE STACKED RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD
SEE SOME INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
OCCASIONAL CIGS THROUGH 02/00Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTN/EVENING. CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
AND SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE...WILL LIKELY SEE IFR VSBYS AT KELM
AND KBGM AROUND 09-13Z...MVFR POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES. FOG WILL
LIFT AFTER 14-15Z...WITH SOME DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...ABS/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB/PCF
AVIATION...ABS





000
FXUS61 KBGM 011726
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
126 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRADE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE: ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR
FRIDAY AS I SHAVED BACK NORTHERN EXTENT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE TWIN TIERS. OTHERWISE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR
AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC
OF A WEAK BACK- DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON
THURSDAY. THE STACKED RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD
SEE SOME INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
OCCASIONAL CIGS THROUGH 02/00Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTN/EVENING. CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
AND SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE...WILL LIKELY SEE IFR VSBYS AT KELM
AND KBGM AROUND 09-13Z...MVFR POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES. FOG WILL
LIFT AFTER 14-15Z...WITH SOME DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...ABS/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB/PCF
AVIATION...ABS




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011102
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
702 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRADE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE: ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR
FRIDAY AS I SHAVED BACK NORTHERN EXTENT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE TWIN TIERS. OTHERWISE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR
AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC
OF A WEAK BACK- DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON
THURSDAY. THE STACKED RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD
SEE SOME INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE CONTINUING TO RESULT IN
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE THICKEST FOG OCCURRING AT
KELM. EXPECT IFR VISBYS BELOW ALTERNATE MINS TO PREVAIL AT KELM
UNTIL AROUND 1330Z WHEN FOG BURNS OFF. FOR KBGM/KITH EXPECT VISBYS
HOVERING BETWEEN LOW MVFR AND IFR ALSO UNTIL MID MORNING.
MEANWHILE LOW STRATUS AROUND KRME RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS MAY TAKE
A LITTLE LONGER TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR BY
15Z. REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE VFR WITH FEW/SCT CU AROUND 4-5
KFT FOR ALL SITES.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE. RESULT WILL BE VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN...THICKEST AT KELM
WHERE VISBYS SHOULD AGAIN GO BELOW ALTERNATE MINS. KBGM/KITH WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST MVFR VISBYS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB/PCF
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011102
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
702 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRADE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE: ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR
FRIDAY AS I SHAVED BACK NORTHERN EXTENT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE TWIN TIERS. OTHERWISE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR
AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC
OF A WEAK BACK- DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON
THURSDAY. THE STACKED RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD
SEE SOME INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE CONTINUING TO RESULT IN
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE THICKEST FOG OCCURRING AT
KELM. EXPECT IFR VISBYS BELOW ALTERNATE MINS TO PREVAIL AT KELM
UNTIL AROUND 1330Z WHEN FOG BURNS OFF. FOR KBGM/KITH EXPECT VISBYS
HOVERING BETWEEN LOW MVFR AND IFR ALSO UNTIL MID MORNING.
MEANWHILE LOW STRATUS AROUND KRME RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS MAY TAKE
A LITTLE LONGER TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR BY
15Z. REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE VFR WITH FEW/SCT CU AROUND 4-5
KFT FOR ALL SITES.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE. RESULT WILL BE VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN...THICKEST AT KELM
WHERE VISBYS SHOULD AGAIN GO BELOW ALTERNATE MINS. KBGM/KITH WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST MVFR VISBYS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB/PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 011102
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
702 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRADE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE: ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR
FRIDAY AS I SHAVED BACK NORTHERN EXTENT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE TWIN TIERS. OTHERWISE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR
AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC
OF A WEAK BACK- DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON
THURSDAY. THE STACKED RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD
SEE SOME INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE CONTINUING TO RESULT IN
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE THICKEST FOG OCCURRING AT
KELM. EXPECT IFR VISBYS BELOW ALTERNATE MINS TO PREVAIL AT KELM
UNTIL AROUND 1330Z WHEN FOG BURNS OFF. FOR KBGM/KITH EXPECT VISBYS
HOVERING BETWEEN LOW MVFR AND IFR ALSO UNTIL MID MORNING.
MEANWHILE LOW STRATUS AROUND KRME RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS MAY TAKE
A LITTLE LONGER TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR BY
15Z. REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE VFR WITH FEW/SCT CU AROUND 4-5
KFT FOR ALL SITES.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE. RESULT WILL BE VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN...THICKEST AT KELM
WHERE VISBYS SHOULD AGAIN GO BELOW ALTERNATE MINS. KBGM/KITH WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST MVFR VISBYS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB/PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 011054
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
654 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRADE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE: ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR
FRIDAY AS I SHAVED BACK NORTHERN EXTENT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE TWIN TIERS. OTHERWISE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR
AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC
OF A WEAK BACK- DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON
THURSDAY. THE STACKED RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD
SEE SOME INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE CONTINUING TO RESULT IN
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE THICKEST FOG OCCURRING AT
KELM. EXPECT IFR VISBYS BELOW ALTERNATE MINS TO PREVAIL AT KELM
UNTIL AROUND 1330Z WHEN FOG BURNS OFF. FOR KBGM/KITH EXPECT VISBYS
HOVERING BETWEEN LOW MVFR AND IFR ALSO UNTIL MID MORNING.
MEANWHILE LOW STRATUS AROUND KRME RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS MAY TAKE
A LITTLE LONGER TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR BY
15Z. REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE VFR WITH FEW/SCT CU AROUND 4-5
KFT FOR ALL SITES.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE. RESULT WILL BE VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN...THICKEST AT KELM
WHERE VISBYS SHOULD AGAIN GO BELOW ALTERNATE MINS. KBGM/KITH WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST MVFR VISBYS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB/PCF
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011054
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
654 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRADE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE: ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR
FRIDAY AS I SHAVED BACK NORTHERN EXTENT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE TWIN TIERS. OTHERWISE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR
AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC
OF A WEAK BACK- DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON
THURSDAY. THE STACKED RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD
SEE SOME INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE CONTINUING TO RESULT IN
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE THICKEST FOG OCCURRING AT
KELM. EXPECT IFR VISBYS BELOW ALTERNATE MINS TO PREVAIL AT KELM
UNTIL AROUND 1330Z WHEN FOG BURNS OFF. FOR KBGM/KITH EXPECT VISBYS
HOVERING BETWEEN LOW MVFR AND IFR ALSO UNTIL MID MORNING.
MEANWHILE LOW STRATUS AROUND KRME RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS MAY TAKE
A LITTLE LONGER TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR BY
15Z. REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE VFR WITH FEW/SCT CU AROUND 4-5
KFT FOR ALL SITES.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE. RESULT WILL BE VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN...THICKEST AT KELM
WHERE VISBYS SHOULD AGAIN GO BELOW ALTERNATE MINS. KBGM/KITH WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST MVFR VISBYS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB/PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 011054
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
654 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRADE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE: ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR
FRIDAY AS I SHAVED BACK NORTHERN EXTENT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE TWIN TIERS. OTHERWISE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR
AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC
OF A WEAK BACK- DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON
THURSDAY. THE STACKED RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD
SEE SOME INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE CONTINUING TO RESULT IN
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE THICKEST FOG OCCURRING AT
KELM. EXPECT IFR VISBYS BELOW ALTERNATE MINS TO PREVAIL AT KELM
UNTIL AROUND 1330Z WHEN FOG BURNS OFF. FOR KBGM/KITH EXPECT VISBYS
HOVERING BETWEEN LOW MVFR AND IFR ALSO UNTIL MID MORNING.
MEANWHILE LOW STRATUS AROUND KRME RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS MAY TAKE
A LITTLE LONGER TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR BY
15Z. REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE VFR WITH FEW/SCT CU AROUND 4-5
KFT FOR ALL SITES.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE. RESULT WILL BE VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN...THICKEST AT KELM
WHERE VISBYS SHOULD AGAIN GO BELOW ALTERNATE MINS. KBGM/KITH WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST MVFR VISBYS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB/PCF
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011054
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
654 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRADE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE: ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR
FRIDAY AS I SHAVED BACK NORTHERN EXTENT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE TWIN TIERS. OTHERWISE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR
AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC
OF A WEAK BACK- DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON
THURSDAY. THE STACKED RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD
SEE SOME INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE CONTINUING TO RESULT IN
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE THICKEST FOG OCCURRING AT
KELM. EXPECT IFR VISBYS BELOW ALTERNATE MINS TO PREVAIL AT KELM
UNTIL AROUND 1330Z WHEN FOG BURNS OFF. FOR KBGM/KITH EXPECT VISBYS
HOVERING BETWEEN LOW MVFR AND IFR ALSO UNTIL MID MORNING.
MEANWHILE LOW STRATUS AROUND KRME RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS MAY TAKE
A LITTLE LONGER TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR BY
15Z. REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE VFR WITH FEW/SCT CU AROUND 4-5
KFT FOR ALL SITES.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE. RESULT WILL BE VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN...THICKEST AT KELM
WHERE VISBYS SHOULD AGAIN GO BELOW ALTERNATE MINS. KBGM/KITH WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST MVFR VISBYS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB/PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 010718
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
318 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRADE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE: ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR
FRIDAY AS I SHAVED BACK NORTHERN EXTENT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE TWIN TIERS. OTHERWISE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR
AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC
OF A WEAK BACK- DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON
THURSDAY. THE STACKED RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD
SEE SOME INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.

AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP AS OF THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KELM/KITH/KBGM TO SEE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE KELM
COULD SEE VIS GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS NEAR SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FOR KAVP/KRME EXPECT MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY
MORNING. KSYR SHOULD STAY VFR. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 14Z.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB/PCF
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010718
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
318 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRADE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE: ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR
FRIDAY AS I SHAVED BACK NORTHERN EXTENT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE TWIN TIERS. OTHERWISE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR
AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC
OF A WEAK BACK- DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON
THURSDAY. THE STACKED RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD
SEE SOME INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.

AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP AS OF THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KELM/KITH/KBGM TO SEE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE KELM
COULD SEE VIS GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS NEAR SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FOR KAVP/KRME EXPECT MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY
MORNING. KSYR SHOULD STAY VFR. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 14Z.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB/PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 010651
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
251 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRAGE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.

AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP AS OF THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KELM/KITH/KBGM TO SEE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE KELM
COULD SEE VIS GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS NEAR SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FOR KAVP/KRME EXPECT MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY
MORNING. KSYR SHOULD STAY VFR. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 14Z.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN/PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 010651
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
251 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRAGE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.

AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP AS OF THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KELM/KITH/KBGM TO SEE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE KELM
COULD SEE VIS GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS NEAR SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FOR KAVP/KRME EXPECT MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY
MORNING. KSYR SHOULD STAY VFR. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 14Z.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010651
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
251 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRAGE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.

AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP AS OF THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KELM/KITH/KBGM TO SEE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE KELM
COULD SEE VIS GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS NEAR SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FOR KAVP/KRME EXPECT MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY
MORNING. KSYR SHOULD STAY VFR. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 14Z.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010651
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
251 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRAGE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.

AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP AS OF THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KELM/KITH/KBGM TO SEE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE KELM
COULD SEE VIS GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS NEAR SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FOR KAVP/KRME EXPECT MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY
MORNING. KSYR SHOULD STAY VFR. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 14Z.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN/PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 010547
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
147 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
805 PM UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA,
WHERE A BROKEN DECK CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

4 PM UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL GENERALLY IN CONTROL. EXPECTING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH A WARM DAY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN SOME
AREAS IS THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S
FOR A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY...HEAT OF THE DAY
TYPE SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.

AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP AS OF THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KELM/KITH/KBGM TO SEE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE KELM
COULD SEE VIS GO BELOW AIPORT MINS NEAR SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FOR KAVP/KRME EXPECT MVFR VISBYS
AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY MORNING. KSYR
SHOULD STAY VFR. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 14Z.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010547
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
147 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
805 PM UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA,
WHERE A BROKEN DECK CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

4 PM UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL GENERALLY IN CONTROL. EXPECTING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH A WARM DAY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN SOME
AREAS IS THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S
FOR A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY...HEAT OF THE DAY
TYPE SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.

AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP AS OF THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KELM/KITH/KBGM TO SEE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE KELM
COULD SEE VIS GO BELOW AIPORT MINS NEAR SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FOR KAVP/KRME EXPECT MVFR VISBYS
AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY MORNING. KSYR
SHOULD STAY VFR. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 14Z.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010547
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
147 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
805 PM UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA,
WHERE A BROKEN DECK CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

4 PM UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL GENERALLY IN CONTROL. EXPECTING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH A WARM DAY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN SOME
AREAS IS THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S
FOR A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY...HEAT OF THE DAY
TYPE SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.

AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP AS OF THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KELM/KITH/KBGM TO SEE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE KELM
COULD SEE VIS GO BELOW AIPORT MINS NEAR SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FOR KAVP/KRME EXPECT MVFR VISBYS
AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY MORNING. KSYR
SHOULD STAY VFR. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 14Z.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN/PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 010547
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
147 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
805 PM UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA,
WHERE A BROKEN DECK CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

4 PM UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL GENERALLY IN CONTROL. EXPECTING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH A WARM DAY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN SOME
AREAS IS THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S
FOR A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY...HEAT OF THE DAY
TYPE SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.

AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP AS OF THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KELM/KITH/KBGM TO SEE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE KELM
COULD SEE VIS GO BELOW AIPORT MINS NEAR SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FOR KAVP/KRME EXPECT MVFR VISBYS
AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY MORNING. KSYR
SHOULD STAY VFR. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 14Z.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN/PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 010004
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
804 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
805 PM UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA,
WHERE A BROKEN DECK CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

4 PM UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL GENERALLY IN CONTROL. EXPECTING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH A WARM DAY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN SOME
AREAS IS THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S
FOR A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY...HEAT OF THE DAY
TYPE SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MAIN CONCERNS CENTERED
AROUND VALLEY FOG FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

AN AREA OF CLOUDS MAY DRIFT ACROSS KRME IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 4KFT. ELSEWHERE DENSE VALLEY FOG BEGINS
AROUND 06Z AT KELM, WITH NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08Z AND ABOUT 13Z. ELSEWHERE THE FOG MAY BE THICK ENOUGH
THAT IT WILL PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS OR EVEN A BRIEF (LESS THAN AN
HOUR) PERIOD OF IFR AT KITH/KBGM/KAVP. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE NEAR
DAYBREAK. VFR AFTER 13Z TUESDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 010004
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
804 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
805 PM UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA,
WHERE A BROKEN DECK CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

4 PM UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL GENERALLY IN CONTROL. EXPECTING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH A WARM DAY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN SOME
AREAS IS THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S
FOR A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY...HEAT OF THE DAY
TYPE SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MAIN CONCERNS CENTERED
AROUND VALLEY FOG FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

AN AREA OF CLOUDS MAY DRIFT ACROSS KRME IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 4KFT. ELSEWHERE DENSE VALLEY FOG BEGINS
AROUND 06Z AT KELM, WITH NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08Z AND ABOUT 13Z. ELSEWHERE THE FOG MAY BE THICK ENOUGH
THAT IT WILL PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS OR EVEN A BRIEF (LESS THAN AN
HOUR) PERIOD OF IFR AT KITH/KBGM/KAVP. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE NEAR
DAYBREAK. VFR AFTER 13Z TUESDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 312342
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
742 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL GENERALLY IN CONTROL. EXPECTING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH A WARM DAY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN SOME
AREAS IS THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S
FOR A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY...HEAT OF THE DAY
TYPE SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MAIN CONCERNS CENTERED
AROUND VALLEY FOG FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

AN AREA OF CLOUDS MAY DRIFT ACROSS KRME IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 4KFT. ELSEWHERE DENSE VALLEY FOG BEGINS
AROUND 06Z AT KELM, WITH NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08Z AND ABOUT 13Z. ELSEWHERE THE FOG MAY BE THICK ENOUGH
THAT IT WILL PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS OR EVEN A BRIEF (LESS THAN AN
HOUR) PERIOD OF IFR AT KITH/KBGM/KAVP. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE NEAR
DAYBREAK. VFR AFTER 13Z TUESDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 312342
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
742 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL GENERALLY IN CONTROL. EXPECTING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH A WARM DAY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN SOME
AREAS IS THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S
FOR A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY...HEAT OF THE DAY
TYPE SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MAIN CONCERNS CENTERED
AROUND VALLEY FOG FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

AN AREA OF CLOUDS MAY DRIFT ACROSS KRME IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 4KFT. ELSEWHERE DENSE VALLEY FOG BEGINS
AROUND 06Z AT KELM, WITH NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08Z AND ABOUT 13Z. ELSEWHERE THE FOG MAY BE THICK ENOUGH
THAT IT WILL PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS OR EVEN A BRIEF (LESS THAN AN
HOUR) PERIOD OF IFR AT KITH/KBGM/KAVP. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE NEAR
DAYBREAK. VFR AFTER 13Z TUESDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 311852
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
252 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL GENERALLY IN CONTROL. EXPECTING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH A WARM DAY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN SOME
AREAS IS THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S
FOR A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY...HEAT OF THE DAY
TYPE SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CIG WILL LINGER AT KRME TIL ABT 19Z. THERE
WILL BE ISLD-SCT TSRA AROUND IN SRN TIER OF NY/NE PA BUT DIDNT PUT
INTO ANY TAFS SINCE PROBABILITIES WILL BE LESS THAN 30 PCT THAT A
STORM WILL AFFECT AN AIRPORT.

THEN AFTER SUNSET SKIES WILL CLEAR...VALLEY FOG WILL FORM AND
WILL GO WITH THE TYPICAL VLIFR IN FG/CIG AT KELM MAINLY FROM
8-1330Z AS PER CLIMO. I DO HAVE SOME PATCHY IFR AT KBGM 10-12Z AS
FOG LIFTS OUT OF THE VALLEYS. ALSO HAVE MVFR BR AT KAVP AND KITH
BTWN 9 AND 15Z. THIS CUD EVEN BE SOME HZ AS WELL.

W TO NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS TUE AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 311852
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
252 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL GENERALLY IN CONTROL. EXPECTING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH A WARM DAY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN SOME
AREAS IS THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S
FOR A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY...HEAT OF THE DAY
TYPE SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CIG WILL LINGER AT KRME TIL ABT 19Z. THERE
WILL BE ISLD-SCT TSRA AROUND IN SRN TIER OF NY/NE PA BUT DIDNT PUT
INTO ANY TAFS SINCE PROBABILITIES WILL BE LESS THAN 30 PCT THAT A
STORM WILL AFFECT AN AIRPORT.

THEN AFTER SUNSET SKIES WILL CLEAR...VALLEY FOG WILL FORM AND
WILL GO WITH THE TYPICAL VLIFR IN FG/CIG AT KELM MAINLY FROM
8-1330Z AS PER CLIMO. I DO HAVE SOME PATCHY IFR AT KBGM 10-12Z AS
FOG LIFTS OUT OF THE VALLEYS. ALSO HAVE MVFR BR AT KAVP AND KITH
BTWN 9 AND 15Z. THIS CUD EVEN BE SOME HZ AS WELL.

W TO NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS TUE AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 311735
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
135 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING THE AREA VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 590 DM ON TUESDAY. A DRY PERIOD IS
IN STORE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BOTH TUE AND WED. WEDNESDAY, A
SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN PA/NRN
VA. THIS FEATURE IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS PARTS OF NE PA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RUN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUE/WED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR 90 ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. GENERAL THEME IS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER MID- LEVELS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER
588 DM AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE BY DAY
AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST A VERY STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ECMWF SHOWS SOME FALLING HEIGHTS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY... HOWEVER NO AGREEMENT FROM THE
GFS AND BOTTOM LINE IS THAT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CIG WILL LINGER AT KRME TIL ABT 19Z. THERE
WILL BE ISLD-SCT TSRA AROUND IN SRN TIER OF NY/NE PA BUT DIDNT PUT
INTO ANY TAFS SINCE PROBABILITIES WILL BE LESS THAN 30 PCT THAT A
STORM WILL AFFECT AN AIRPORT.

THEN AFTER SUNSET SKIES WILL CLEAR...VALLEY FOG WILL FORM AND
WILL GO WITH THE TYPICAL VLIFR IN FG/CIG AT KELM MAINLY FROM
8-1330Z AS PER CLIMO. I DO HAVE SOME PATCHY IFR AT KBGM 10-12Z AS
FOG LIFTS OUT OF THE VALLEYS. ALSO HAVE MVFR BR AT KAVP AND KITH
BTWN 9 AND 15Z. THIS CUD EVEN BE SOME HZ AS WELL.

W TO NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS TUE AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...DJN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 311735
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
135 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING THE AREA VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 590 DM ON TUESDAY. A DRY PERIOD IS
IN STORE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BOTH TUE AND WED. WEDNESDAY, A
SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN PA/NRN
VA. THIS FEATURE IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS PARTS OF NE PA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RUN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUE/WED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR 90 ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. GENERAL THEME IS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER MID- LEVELS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER
588 DM AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE BY DAY
AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST A VERY STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ECMWF SHOWS SOME FALLING HEIGHTS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY... HOWEVER NO AGREEMENT FROM THE
GFS AND BOTTOM LINE IS THAT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CIG WILL LINGER AT KRME TIL ABT 19Z. THERE
WILL BE ISLD-SCT TSRA AROUND IN SRN TIER OF NY/NE PA BUT DIDNT PUT
INTO ANY TAFS SINCE PROBABILITIES WILL BE LESS THAN 30 PCT THAT A
STORM WILL AFFECT AN AIRPORT.

THEN AFTER SUNSET SKIES WILL CLEAR...VALLEY FOG WILL FORM AND
WILL GO WITH THE TYPICAL VLIFR IN FG/CIG AT KELM MAINLY FROM
8-1330Z AS PER CLIMO. I DO HAVE SOME PATCHY IFR AT KBGM 10-12Z AS
FOG LIFTS OUT OF THE VALLEYS. ALSO HAVE MVFR BR AT KAVP AND KITH
BTWN 9 AND 15Z. THIS CUD EVEN BE SOME HZ AS WELL.

W TO NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS TUE AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...DJN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 311429
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1029 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING THE AREA VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND TRIGGER SOME ISLD SHRA AND
MAYBE A TSRA OR TWO IN NE PA/SULLIVAN CO NY LATER AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. NORTH OF THIS...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS AND
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE TOO EARLY FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT TO
FIRE. SO KEPT POPS LIKE PREV SHIFT. SEE PREV DSCN BELOW.

PREVIOUS DSCN...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING MORE CLOUD
COVER TO NE PA THAN CENTRAL NY. ALONG WITH THIS BETTER MOISTURE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
NRN PA. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 590 DM ON TUESDAY. A DRY PERIOD IS
IN STORE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BOTH TUE AND WED. WEDNESDAY, A
SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN PA/NRN
VA. THIS FEATURE IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS PARTS OF NE PA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RUN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUE/WED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR 90 ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. GENERAL THEME IS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER MID- LEVELS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER
588 DM AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE BY DAY
AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST A VERY STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ECMWF SHOWS SOME FALLING HEIGHTS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY... HOWEVER NO AGREEMENT FROM THE
GFS AND BOTTOM LINE IS THAT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 AM MONDAY UPDATE...

KELM HAS CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS WHICH WILL BURN OFF
BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z. OTHER SITES SHOULD LOSE THE MVFR VSBY FOG BY
13Z. TODAY SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUDS. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS BGM/ELM/AVP. RESTRICTIONS NOT LIKELY.

THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR AGAIN. FOG WILL FORM AGAIN WITH MVFR
ITH/BGM/AVP AND IFR ELM. ELM AGAIN NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS LATE
TONIGHT.

WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY. DURING THE DAY W TO NW WINDS AT 5
TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...TAC




000
FXUS61 KBGM 311429
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1029 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING THE AREA VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND TRIGGER SOME ISLD SHRA AND
MAYBE A TSRA OR TWO IN NE PA/SULLIVAN CO NY LATER AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. NORTH OF THIS...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS AND
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE TOO EARLY FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT TO
FIRE. SO KEPT POPS LIKE PREV SHIFT. SEE PREV DSCN BELOW.

PREVIOUS DSCN...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING MORE CLOUD
COVER TO NE PA THAN CENTRAL NY. ALONG WITH THIS BETTER MOISTURE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
NRN PA. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 590 DM ON TUESDAY. A DRY PERIOD IS
IN STORE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BOTH TUE AND WED. WEDNESDAY, A
SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN PA/NRN
VA. THIS FEATURE IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS PARTS OF NE PA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RUN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUE/WED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR 90 ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. GENERAL THEME IS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER MID- LEVELS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER
588 DM AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE BY DAY
AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST A VERY STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ECMWF SHOWS SOME FALLING HEIGHTS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY... HOWEVER NO AGREEMENT FROM THE
GFS AND BOTTOM LINE IS THAT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 AM MONDAY UPDATE...

KELM HAS CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS WHICH WILL BURN OFF
BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z. OTHER SITES SHOULD LOSE THE MVFR VSBY FOG BY
13Z. TODAY SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUDS. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS BGM/ELM/AVP. RESTRICTIONS NOT LIKELY.

THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR AGAIN. FOG WILL FORM AGAIN WITH MVFR
ITH/BGM/AVP AND IFR ELM. ELM AGAIN NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS LATE
TONIGHT.

WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY. DURING THE DAY W TO NW WINDS AT 5
TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...TAC




000
FXUS61 KBGM 311429
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1029 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING THE AREA VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND TRIGGER SOME ISLD SHRA AND
MAYBE A TSRA OR TWO IN NE PA/SULLIVAN CO NY LATER AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. NORTH OF THIS...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS AND
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE TOO EARLY FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT TO
FIRE. SO KEPT POPS LIKE PREV SHIFT. SEE PREV DSCN BELOW.

PREVIOUS DSCN...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING MORE CLOUD
COVER TO NE PA THAN CENTRAL NY. ALONG WITH THIS BETTER MOISTURE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
NRN PA. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 590 DM ON TUESDAY. A DRY PERIOD IS
IN STORE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BOTH TUE AND WED. WEDNESDAY, A
SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN PA/NRN
VA. THIS FEATURE IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS PARTS OF NE PA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RUN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUE/WED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR 90 ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. GENERAL THEME IS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER MID- LEVELS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER
588 DM AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE BY DAY
AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST A VERY STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ECMWF SHOWS SOME FALLING HEIGHTS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY... HOWEVER NO AGREEMENT FROM THE
GFS AND BOTTOM LINE IS THAT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 AM MONDAY UPDATE...

KELM HAS CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS WHICH WILL BURN OFF
BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z. OTHER SITES SHOULD LOSE THE MVFR VSBY FOG BY
13Z. TODAY SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUDS. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS BGM/ELM/AVP. RESTRICTIONS NOT LIKELY.

THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR AGAIN. FOG WILL FORM AGAIN WITH MVFR
ITH/BGM/AVP AND IFR ELM. ELM AGAIN NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS LATE
TONIGHT.

WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY. DURING THE DAY W TO NW WINDS AT 5
TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...TAC





000
FXUS61 KBGM 311429
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1029 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING THE AREA VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND TRIGGER SOME ISLD SHRA AND
MAYBE A TSRA OR TWO IN NE PA/SULLIVAN CO NY LATER AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. NORTH OF THIS...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS AND
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE TOO EARLY FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT TO
FIRE. SO KEPT POPS LIKE PREV SHIFT. SEE PREV DSCN BELOW.

PREVIOUS DSCN...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING MORE CLOUD
COVER TO NE PA THAN CENTRAL NY. ALONG WITH THIS BETTER MOISTURE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
NRN PA. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 590 DM ON TUESDAY. A DRY PERIOD IS
IN STORE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BOTH TUE AND WED. WEDNESDAY, A
SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN PA/NRN
VA. THIS FEATURE IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS PARTS OF NE PA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RUN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUE/WED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR 90 ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. GENERAL THEME IS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER MID- LEVELS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER
588 DM AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE BY DAY
AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST A VERY STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ECMWF SHOWS SOME FALLING HEIGHTS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY... HOWEVER NO AGREEMENT FROM THE
GFS AND BOTTOM LINE IS THAT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 AM MONDAY UPDATE...

KELM HAS CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS WHICH WILL BURN OFF
BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z. OTHER SITES SHOULD LOSE THE MVFR VSBY FOG BY
13Z. TODAY SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUDS. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS BGM/ELM/AVP. RESTRICTIONS NOT LIKELY.

THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR AGAIN. FOG WILL FORM AGAIN WITH MVFR
ITH/BGM/AVP AND IFR ELM. ELM AGAIN NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS LATE
TONIGHT.

WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY. DURING THE DAY W TO NW WINDS AT 5
TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...TAC





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