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000
FXUS61 KBGM 210120
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
920 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
IR SATELLITE SHOWS JUST SOME PATCHY CIRRUS ADVECTING OVR C NY AND
NRN PA AT THIS TIME. RADARS SHOW PATCHY LIGHT SHRA OR JUST VIRGA
ACRS SRN ONT INTO NRN NY. THIS ACVTY WAS ASSCTD WITH A SMALL SHORT
WAVE WHICH WAS MOVING INTO WRN QUE AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WAS
INCREASING UPPER CONFLUENCE AND LEADING TO A JET ENTRANCE REGION
CIRC WHICH IN TURN WAS SUPPORTG LIFT AND THICKER MID/HI CLDS AND
SOME RADAR RETURNS TO THE N OF THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. THIS WAVE
WILL SWING BY TO OUR NORTH AND JUST LEAD TO SOME MORE CIRRUS
PUSHING A LITTLE FARTHER S INTO NC NY OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN
THAT...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY.
WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES MINS WILL DROP TO BELOW FREEZING ESPECIALLY
IN NE PA AND SRN NY WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS HIGH CLDS. GROWING
SEASON HAS YET TO BEGIN SO NO FLAGS FOR FROST OR FREEZE
CONDITIONS.

FOR MONDAY...NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC
CD FRNT PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
SPREAD MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS ACRS NY AND PA DURG THE DAY. SW LL
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING UPR LVL WAVE WILL ADVECT HIGHER
SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN BY
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH INSOLATION CUD POP SOME SCT CUMULUS
UNDER SOME HIGH CLDS. REST C NY AND NE PA WILL SEE LOWER DEWPOINTS
AND LITTLE IF ANY CU FORMATION. 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAXES FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
TROF WL BE DEEPENING TO OUR WEST BY 00Z TUESDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE
STRUGGLES TO GET ANY MEASURABLE QPF INTO WRN SXNS OF CWA BY 12Z TUE.
EXPECT THAT THIS DEEPENING WILL SLOW THINGS DOWN UNTIL AFT DAYBREAK.
WL DELAY POPS BY ABOUT 3-6 HRS BUT NOT RMV COMPLETELY FM THE
NIGHTTIME HRS AS SOME WK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENUF TO GENERATE
SHOWERS TWD 10Z TUESDAY. INCRSG CLD CVR WL PREVENT TEMPS FM DROPPING
TOO MUCH OVRNGT WITH OVRNGT MINS SVRL DEGREES WARMER INTO THE U40S
TO ARND 50 IN MOST AREAS.

FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR TUE AFTN, MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND EURO WITH
NAM BEING JUST A TAD TOO FAST. HV UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL DRG THE
DAY TUE AND PROGRESSING FM WEST TO EAST AFTER 14Z UNTIL LATE AFTN AS
FRONT MVS THRU. WITH SLOW MVMNT TO FRONT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPS DRG THE DAY AND HV KEPT HIGHS ARND 20Z AND
THESE CAN BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO TUESDAY. PW VALUES INCRS
TO ARND 1 INCH ON TUESDAY WHICH IS 1-2 SD ABV NRML FOR APRIL. ONLY
EXPECTING A GOOD SOAKING RAIN WITH THIS EVENT.

LINGERING PCPN IS EXPECTED TUE NGT. H8 TEMPS DROP BLO 0C ACRS MOST
OF CWA AFT 06Z, BUT H9 AND SFC TEMPS RMN ABV ZERO. HV JUST LEFT
MENTION OF SHOWERS, THO WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LGT FLURRIES OR
EVEN LGT SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE TUE NGT. EXPECT
SHOWERS WL CONT INTO PART OF THE DAY WED WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED
BHND FRONTAL BNDRY. HIGHS WL BE LUCKY TO REACH INTO THE 50S WITH H8
TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -5C.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
245 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END
BY WED NIGHT AND A SFC RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA FROM THE WEST. THURS IS EXPECTED TO BE A
BEAUTIFUL DAY AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL DOMINATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

FRIDAY MORNING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST OVER TIMING AND THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPR LOW... HOWEVER GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT
RAIN WILL START TO FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWER MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
FRI-SUN... TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S THIS WEEKEND. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
HALF AN INCH OR LOWER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SREAM OVERHEAD MAINLY FOR NY TAFS OVERNIGHT AND MON AM. NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THICKER
CIRRUS TO NY TAFS WITH SCT CIRRUS TO KAVP. A VFR MID DECK WILL
AFFECT KRME AND KSYR AFT 21Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SW 5 TO 10
KNOTS MON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...VFR.

TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WED MRNG ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

FRI... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR MONDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE SOME ACRS THE FINGER LAKES
AND LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN WITH SW WINDS AND REMAIN FAIRLY LOW OVER
NE PA TO THE CATSKILLS. EVEN SO...MINIMUM RH/S WILL RANGE MAINLY IN
THE 20S PERCENT WHICH IS BELOW THE 30 PCT RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR ALL
OF C NY AND NE PA. FINE FUELS REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT IN PA AND
NY. IN NY...MONDAY WILL BE THE 6TH DAY SINCE WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR MORE. SO THE ONLY THING MISSING FOR RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IN NY AND PA IS THE WINDS ON MONDAY. WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 25 MPH RED FLAG THRESHOLD IN NY
AND BELOW THE 20 MPH THRESHOLD FOR PA. WIND GUSTS MOST AREAS WILL
RANGE AROUND 15 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH MON PM.
HENCE DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY IN C NY OR NE
PA DUE TO LACK OF WIND.

FOR TUESDAY WE ARE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND HENCE NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...DJN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 202329
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
729 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
5 PM UPDATE...
JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DWPTS AND WINDS. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

1 PM UPDATE...
QUIET WX EXPECTED DRG THE OVRNGT. SFC LOW SITTING UP OVR NRN ONTARIO
THIS AFTN HAS DRAPED A CDFNT INTO THE UPR MIDWEST WITH PLENTY OF
MID-CLDS AND AREA OF SHOWERS AHD OF BNDRY. AT WORST, AS FLOW ALOFT
GOES ZONAL ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT MAY START TO SEE A FEW HIGH CLDS
SNEAK INTO NRN ZONES AFT MIDNIGHT. THIS WL ALLOW SKIES TO GO FM
MOCLR TO PCLDY NORTH OF THE I-86/I-88 CORRIDOR. THESE CLDS WL SERVE
TO IMPEDE RADN`L COOLING WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING IN WARM ADVECTION TO
DROP MUCH INTO THE 40S OVR FAR NW CNTYS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH UNDER
MOCLR SKIES EXPECT DEEPER VLYS TO APPCH FRZG.

SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSUNNY THRU MOST OF THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM SLOWLY
MEANDERING ITS WAY TWD THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SOME 10-15
DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR TOMORROW AFTN WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
TROF WL BE DEEPENING TO OUR WEST BY 00Z TUESDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE
STRUGGLES TO GET ANY MEASURABLE QPF INTO WRN SXNS OF CWA BY 12Z TUE.
EXPECT THAT THIS DEEPENING WILL SLOW THINGS DOWN UNTIL AFT DAYBREAK.
WL DELAY POPS BY ABOUT 3-6 HRS BUT NOT RMV COMPLETELY FM THE
NIGHTTIME HRS AS SOME WK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENUF TO GENERATE
SHOWERS TWD 10Z TUESDAY. INCRSG CLD CVR WL PREVENT TEMPS FM DROPPING
TOO MUCH OVRNGT WITH OVRNGT MINS SVRL DEGREES WARMER INTO THE U40S
TO ARND 50 IN MOST AREAS.

FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR TUE AFTN, MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND EURO WITH
NAM BEING JUST A TAD TOO FAST. HV UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL DRG THE
DAY TUE AND PROGRESSING FM WEST TO EAST AFTER 14Z UNTIL LATE AFTN AS
FRONT MVS THRU. WITH SLOW MVMNT TO FRONT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPS DRG THE DAY AND HV KEPT HIGHS ARND 20Z AND
THESE CAN BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO TUESDAY. PW VALUES INCRS
TO ARND 1 INCH ON TUESDAY WHICH IS 1-2 SD ABV NRML FOR APRIL. ONLY
EXPECTING A GOOD SOAKING RAIN WITH THIS EVENT.

LINGERING PCPN IS EXPECTED TUE NGT. H8 TEMPS DROP BLO 0C ACRS MOST
OF CWA AFT 06Z, BUT H9 AND SFC TEMPS RMN ABV ZERO. HV JUST LEFT
MENTION OF SHOWERS, THO WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LGT FLURRIES OR
EVEN LGT SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE TUE NGT. EXPECT
SHOWERS WL CONT INTO PART OF THE DAY WED WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED
BHND FRONTAL BNDRY. HIGHS WL BE LUCKY TO REACH INTO THE 50S WITH H8
TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -5C.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
245 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END
BY WED NIGHT AND A SFC RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA FROM THE WEST. THURS IS EXPECTED TO BE A
BEAUTIFUL DAY AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL DOMINATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

FRIDAY MORNING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST OVER TIMING AND THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPR LOW... HOWEVER GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT
RAIN WILL START TO FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWER MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
FRI-SUN... TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S THIS WEEKEND. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
HALF AN INCH OR LOWER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SREAM OVERHEAD MAINLY FOR NY TAFS OVERNIGHT AND MON AM. NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THICKER
CIRRUS TO NY TAFS WITH SCT CIRRUS TO KAVP. A VFR MID DECK WILL
AFFECT KRME AND KSYR AFT 21Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SW 5 TO 10
KNOTS MON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...VFR.

TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WED MRNG ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

FRI... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
230 PM UPDATE...
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WL DROP DOWN TO NEAR 20% IN NEPA AND BETWEEN
25-30% ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. HOWEVER, SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
WETTING RAIN TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 202126
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
526 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
5 PM UPDATE...
JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DWPTS AND WINDS. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

1 PM UPDATE...
QUIET WX EXPECTED DRG THE OVRNGT. SFC LOW SITTING UP OVR NRN ONTARIO
THIS AFTN HAS DRAPED A CDFNT INTO THE UPR MIDWEST WITH PLENTY OF
MID-CLDS AND AREA OF SHOWERS AHD OF BNDRY. AT WORST, AS FLOW ALOFT
GOES ZONAL ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT MAY START TO SEE A FEW HIGH CLDS
SNEAK INTO NRN ZONES AFT MIDNIGHT. THIS WL ALLOW SKIES TO GO FM
MOCLR TO PCLDY NORTH OF THE I-86/I-88 CORRIDOR. THESE CLDS WL SERVE
TO IMPEDE RADN`L COOLING WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING IN WARM ADVECTION TO
DROP MUCH INTO THE 40S OVR FAR NW CNTYS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH UNDER
MOCLR SKIES EXPECT DEEPER VLYS TO APPCH FRZG.

SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSUNNY THRU MOST OF THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM SLOWLY
MEANDERING ITS WAY TWD THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SOME 10-15
DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR TOMORROW AFTN WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
TROF WL BE DEEPENING TO OUR WEST BY 00Z TUESDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE
STRUGGLES TO GET ANY MEASURABLE QPF INTO WRN SXNS OF CWA BY 12Z TUE.
EXPECT THAT THIS DEEPENING WILL SLOW THINGS DOWN UNTIL AFT DAYBREAK.
WL DELAY POPS BY ABOUT 3-6 HRS BUT NOT RMV COMPLETELY FM THE
NIGHTTIME HRS AS SOME WK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENUF TO GENERATE
SHOWERS TWD 10Z TUESDAY. INCRSG CLD CVR WL PREVENT TEMPS FM DROPPING
TOO MUCH OVRNGT WITH OVRNGT MINS SVRL DEGREES WARMER INTO THE U40S
TO ARND 50 IN MOST AREAS.

FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR TUE AFTN, MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND EURO WITH
NAM BEING JUST A TAD TOO FAST. HV UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL DRG THE
DAY TUE AND PROGRESSING FM WEST TO EAST AFTER 14Z UNTIL LATE AFTN AS
FRONT MVS THRU. WITH SLOW MVMNT TO FRONT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPS DRG THE DAY AND HV KEPT HIGHS ARND 20Z AND
THESE CAN BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO TUESDAY. PW VALUES INCRS
TO ARND 1 INCH ON TUESDAY WHICH IS 1-2 SD ABV NRML FOR APRIL. ONLY
EXPECTING A GOOD SOAKING RAIN WITH THIS EVENT.

LINGERING PCPN IS EXPECTED TUE NGT. H8 TEMPS DROP BLO 0C ACRS MOST
OF CWA AFT 06Z, BUT H9 AND SFC TEMPS RMN ABV ZERO. HV JUST LEFT
MENTION OF SHOWERS, THO WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LGT FLURRIES OR
EVEN LGT SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE TUE NGT. EXPECT
SHOWERS WL CONT INTO PART OF THE DAY WED WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED
BHND FRONTAL BNDRY. HIGHS WL BE LUCKY TO REACH INTO THE 50S WITH H8
TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -5C.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
245 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END
BY WED NIGHT AND A SFC RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA FROM THE WEST. THURS IS EXPECTED TO BE A
BEAUTIFUL DAY AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL DOMINATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

FRIDAY MORNING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST OVER TIMING AND THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPR LOW... HOWEVER GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT
RAIN WILL START TO FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWER MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
FRI-SUN... TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S THIS WEEKEND. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
HALF AN INCH OR LOWER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH THIN
CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT ALONG LIGHT WINDS AS A SURFACE RIDGE IS
PRESENT OVER THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON THROUGH MON NGT...VFR.

TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WED MRNG ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

FRI... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
230 PM UPDATE...
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WL DROP DOWN TO NEAR 20% IN NEPA AND BETWEEN
25-30% ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. HOWEVER, SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
WETTING RAIN TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN/DJN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH
FIRE WEATHER...PVN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 201843
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
243 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
QUIET WX EXPECTED DRG THE OVRNGT. SFC LOW SITTING UP OVR NRN ONTARIO
THIS AFTN HAS DRAPED A CDFNT INTO THE UPR MIDWEST WITH PLENTY OF
MID-CLDS AND AREA OF SHOWERS AHD OF BNDRY. AT WORST, AS FLOW ALOFT
GOES ZONAL ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT MAY START TO SEE A FEW HIGH CLDS
SNEAK INTO NRN ZONES AFT MIDNIGHT. THIS WL ALLOW SKIES TO GO FM
MOCLR TO PCLDY NORTH OF THE I-86/I-88 CORRIDOR. THESE CLDS WL SERVE
TO IMPEDE RADN`L COOLING WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING IN WARM ADVECTION TO
DROP MUCH INTO THE 40S OVR FAR NW CNTYS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH UNDER
MOCLR SKIES EXPECT DEEPER VLYS TO APPCH FRZG.

SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSUNNY THRU MOST OF THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM SLOWLY
MEANDERING ITS WAY TWD THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SOME 10-15
DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR TOMORROW AFTN WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
TROF WL BE DEEPENING TO OUR WEST BY 00Z TUESDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE
STRUGGLES TO GET ANY MEASURABLE QPF INTO WRN SXNS OF CWA BY 12Z TUE.
EXPECT THAT THIS DEEPENING WILL SLOW THINGS DOWN UNTIL AFT DAYBREAK.
WL DELAY POPS BY ABOUT 3-6 HRS BUT NOT RMV COMPLETELY FM THE
NIGHTTIME HRS AS SOME WK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENUF TO GENERATE
SHOWERS TWD 10Z TUESDAY. INCRSG CLD CVR WL PREVENT TEMPS FM DROPPING
TOO MUCH OVRNGT WITH OVRNGT MINS SVRL DEGREES WARMER INTO THE U40S
TO ARND 50 IN MOST AREAS.

FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR TUE AFTN, MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND EURO WITH
NAM BEING JUST A TAD TOO FAST. HV UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL DRG THE
DAY TUE AND PROGRESSING FM WEST TO EAST AFTER 14Z UNTIL LATE AFTN AS
FRONT MVS THRU. WITH SLOW MVMNT TO FRONT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPS DRG THE DAY AND HV KEPT HIGHS ARND 20Z AND
THESE CAN BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO TUESDAY. PW VALUES INCRS
TO ARND 1 INCH ON TUESDAY WHICH IS 1-2 SD ABV NRML FOR APRIL. ONLY
EXPECTING A GOOD SOAKING RAIN WITH THIS EVENT.

LINGERING PCPN IS EXPECTED TUE NGT. H8 TEMPS DROP BLO 0C ACRS MOST
OF CWA AFT 06Z, BUT H9 AND SFC TEMPS RMN ABV ZERO. HV JUST LEFT
MENTION OF SHOWERS, THO WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LGT FLURRIES OR
EVEN LGT SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE TUE NGT. EXPECT
SHOWERS WL CONT INTO PART OF THE DAY WED WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED
BHND FRONTAL BNDRY. HIGHS WL BE LUCKY TO REACH INTO THE 50S WITH H8
TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -5C.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
245 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END
BY WED NIGHT AND A SFC RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA FROM THE WEST. THURS IS EXPECTED TO BE A
BEAUTIFUL DAY AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL DOMINATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

FRIDAY MORNING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST OVER TIMING AND THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPR LOW... HOWEVER GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT
RAIN WILL START TO FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWER MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
FRI-SUN... TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S THIS WEEKEND. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
HALF AN INCH OR LOWER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH THIN
CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT ALONG LIGHT WINDS AS A SURFACE RIDGE IS
PRESENT OVER THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON THROUGH MON NGT...VFR.

TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WED MRNG ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

FRI... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
230 PM UPDATE...
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WL DROP DOWN TO NEAR 20% IN NEPA AND BETWEEN
25-30% ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. HOWEVER, SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
WETTING RAIN TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH
FIRE WEATHER...PN









000
FXUS61 KBGM 201833
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
233 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
QUIET WX EXPECTED DRG THE OVRNGT. SFC LOW SITTING UP OVR NRN ONTARIO
THIS AFTN HAS DRAPED A CDFNT INTO THE UPR MIDWEST WITH PLENTY OF
MID-CLDS AND AREA OF SHOWERS AHD OF BNDRY. AT WORST, AS FLOW ALOFT
GOES ZONAL ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT MAY START TO SEE A FEW HIGH CLDS
SNEAK INTO NRN ZONES AFT MIDNIGHT. THIS WL ALLOW SKIES TO GO FM
MOCLR TO PCLDY NORTH OF THE I-86/I-88 CORRIDOR. THESE CLDS WL SERVE
TO IMPEDE RADN`L COOLING WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING IN WARM ADVECTION TO
DROP MUCH INTO THE 40S OVR FAR NW CNTYS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH UNDER
MOCLR SKIES EXPECT DEEPER VLYS TO APPCH FRZG.

SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSUNNY THRU MOST OF THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM SLOWLY
MEANDERING ITS WAY TWD THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SOME 10-15
DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR TOMORROW AFTN WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
TROF WL BE DEEPENING TO OUR WEST BY 00Z TUESDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE
STRUGGLES TO GET ANY MEASURABLE QPF INTO WRN SXNS OF CWA BY 12Z TUE.
EXPECT THAT THIS DEEPENING WILL SLOW THINGS DOWN UNTIL AFT DAYBREAK.
WL DELAY POPS BY ABOUT 3-6 HRS BUT NOT RMV COMPLETELY FM THE
NIGHTTIME HRS AS SOME WK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENUF TO GENERATE
SHOWERS TWD 10Z TUESDAY. INCRSG CLD CVR WL PREVENT TEMPS FM DROPPING
TOO MUCH OVRNGT WITH OVRNGT MINS SVRL DEGREES WARMER INTO THE U40S
TO ARND 50 IN MOST AREAS.

FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR TUE AFTN, MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND EURO WITH
NAM BEING JUST A TAD TOO FAST. HV UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL DRG THE
DAY TUE AND PROGRESSING FM WEST TO EAST AFTER 14Z UNTIL LATE AFTN AS
FRONT MVS THRU. WITH SLOW MVMNT TO FRONT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPS DRG THE DAY AND HV KEPT HIGHS ARND 20Z AND
THESE CAN BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO TUESDAY. PW VALUES INCRS
TO ARND 1 INCH ON TUESDAY WHICH IS 1-2 SD ABV NRML FOR APRIL. ONLY
EXPECTING A GOOD SOAKING RAIN WITH THIS EVENT.

LINGERING PCPN IS EXPECTED TUE NGT. H8 TEMPS DROP BLO 0C ACRS MOST
OF CWA AFT 06Z, BUT H9 AND SFC TEMPS RMN ABV ZERO. HV JUST LEFT
MENTION OF SHOWERS, THO WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LGT FLURRIES OR
EVEN LGT SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE TUE NGT. EXPECT
SHOWERS WL CONT INTO PART OF THE DAY WED WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED
BHND FRONTAL BNDRY. HIGHS WL BE LUCKY TO REACH INTO THE 50S WITH H8
TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -5C.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THIS
PERIOD WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING THE UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING WITH TIME. SHOWERS
BECOME MORE LIKELY FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
IF ALL GOES AS PLANNED...SHOULD BE PASSING INTO EASTERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INTERESTING SHOT OF SUB FREEZING AIR
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON A FRESH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE APRIL. CONDITIONS MODERATE FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...AND PROBABLY MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT AND
FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE DRIFT INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT THE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. EACH WEATHER FEATURE APPEARS
TO BE RATHER WEAK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...AND IT SEEMS AS THOUGH
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A HALF INCH FOR THE WHOLE 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH THIN
CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT ALONG LIGHT WINDS AS A SURFACE RIDGE IS
PRESENT OVER THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON THROUGH MON NGT...VFR.

TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WED MRNG ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

FRI... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
230 PM UPDATE...
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WL DROP DOWN TO NEAR 20% IN NEPA AND BETWEEN
25-30% ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. HOWEVER, SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
WETTING RAIN TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...KAH
FIRE WEATHER...PN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 201732
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
132 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. OTHER THAN
OCCASIONAL THIN HIGH CLOUDS...THIS WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
VALUES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY FURTHER WARMING MONDAY. OUR NEXT RAIN
ARRIVES TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
QUIET WX EXPECTED DRG THE OVRNGT. SFC LOW SITTING UP OVR NRN ONTARIO
THIS AFTN HAS DRAPED A CDFNT INTO THE UPR MIDWEST WITH PLENTY OF
MID-CLDS AND AREA OF SHOWERS AHD OF BNDRY. AT WORST, AS FLOW ALOFT
GOES ZONAL ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT MAY START TO SEE A FEW HIGH CLDS
SNEAK INTO NRN ZONES AFT MIDNIGHT. THIS WL ALLOW SKIES TO GO FM
MOCLR TO PCLDY NORTH OF THE I-86/I-88 CORRIDOR. THESE CLDS WL SERVE
TO IMPEDE RADN`L COOLING WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING IN WARM ADVECTION TO
DROP MUCH INTO THE 40S OVR FAR NW CNTYS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH UNDER
MOCLR SKIES EXPECT DEEPER VLYS TO APPCH FRZG.

SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSUNNY THRU MOST OF THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM SLOWLY
MEANDERING ITS WAY TWD THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SOME 10-15
DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR TOMORROW AFTN WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOISTURE PROFILES ON BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK AND HAVE A PRETTY
GOOD CHANCE AT ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES REGION BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WE MADE ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THIS
PERIOD WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING THE UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING WITH TIME. SHOWERS
BECOME MORE LIKELY FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
IF ALL GOES AS PLANNED...SHOULD BE PASSING INTO EASTERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INTERESTING SHOT OF SUB FREEZING AIR
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON A FRESH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE APRIL. CONDITIONS MODERATE FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...AND PROBABLY MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT AND
FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE DRIFT INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT THE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. EACH WEATHER FEATURE APPEARS
TO BE RATHER WEAK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...AND IT SEEMS AS THOUGH
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A HALF INCH FOR THE WHOLE 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH THIN
CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT ALONG LIGHT WINDS AS A SURFACE RIDGE IS
PRESENT OVER THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON THROUGH MON NGT...VFR.

TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WED MRNG ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

FRI... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
130 AM UPDATE...
THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH WIND TODAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...WELL
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP EVEN LOWER...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THAT TREND CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY YET LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...A
WETTING RAIN IS ON THE WAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...KAH
FIRE WEATHER...









000
FXUS61 KBGM 201703
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
103 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. OTHER THAN
OCCASIONAL THIN HIGH CLOUDS...THIS WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
VALUES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY FURTHER WARMING MONDAY. OUR NEXT RAIN
ARRIVES TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
QUIET WX EXPECTED DRG THE OVRNGT. SFC LOW SITTING UP OVR NRN ONTARIO
THIS AFTN HAS DRAPED A CDFNT INTO THE UPR MIDWEST WITH PLENTY OF
MID-CLDS AND AREA OF SHOWERS AHD OF BNDRY. AT WORST, AS FLOW ALOFT
GOES ZONAL ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT MAY START TO SEE A FEW HIGH CLDS
SNEAK INTO NRN ZONES AFT MIDNIGHT. THIS WL ALLOW SKIES TO GO FM
MOCLR TO PCLDY NORTH OF THE I-86/I-88 CORRIDOR. THESE CLDS WL SERVE
TO IMPEDE RADN`L COOLING WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING IN WARM ADVECTION TO
DROP MUCH INTO THE 40S OVR FAR NW CNTYS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH UNDER
MOCLR SKIES EXPECT DEEPER VLYS TO APPCH FRZG.

SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSUNNY THRU MOST OF THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM SLOWLY
MEANDERING ITS WAY TWD THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SOME 10-15
DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR TOMORROW AFTN WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOISTURE PROFILES ON BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK AND HAVE A PRETTY
GOOD CHANCE AT ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES REGION BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WE MADE ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THIS
PERIOD WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING THE UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING WITH TIME. SHOWERS
BECOME MORE LIKELY FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
IF ALL GOES AS PLANNED...SHOULD BE PASSING INTO EASTERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INTERESTING SHOT OF SUB FREEZING AIR
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON A FRESH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE APRIL. CONDITIONS MODERATE FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...AND PROBABLY MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT AND
FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE DRIFT INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT THE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. EACH WEATHER FEATURE APPEARS
TO BE RATHER WEAK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...AND IT SEEMS AS THOUGH
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A HALF INCH FOR THE WHOLE 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR ALL TERMINALS. OCCASIONAL HIGH THIN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20 KFT
AGL. HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MON THROUGH MON NGT...VFR.

TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WED MRNG ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
130 AM UPDATE...
THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH WIND TODAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...WELL
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP EVEN LOWER...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THAT TREND CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY YET LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...A
WETTING RAIN IS ON THE WAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 201343
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
943 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. OTHER THAN
OCCASIONAL THIN HIGH CLOUDS...THIS WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
VALUES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY FURTHER WARMING MONDAY. OUR NEXT RAIN
ARRIVES TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
930 AM UPDATE...
ACTIVE WV IMAGERY THIS MRNG WITH H5 LOWS AND/OR TROFS WORKING ACRS
NRN CANADA, SERN U.S. COAST, SRN PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
CWA IS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THIS TIME WITH SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE.
EXPECT TEMPS WL BEGIN TO CLIMB RAPIDLY UNDER STRONG WAA AS H9
TEMPS RISE TO NR +8C BY 18Z TDA. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED TO CLIMB TO
+10C BY 21Z, LEADING TO MAXES IN THE LOW/MID 60S TDA. NO CHGS
NEEDED TO GRIDS WITH MRNG UPDATE.

PREV DISCO BLO...

630 AM UPDATE...
VEIL OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS PERSISTED MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER
PA/SOUTHERN NY...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT THEY ARE NOW DIMINISHING. THAT WILL BE THE
ONLY IMPACT FROM THAT DISTANT SYSTEM FOR OUR REGION...WITH THE
BROAD SURFACE HIGH NOW BUILDING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES MUCH MORE DOMINANT OF OUR WEATHER. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY WHILE SETTLING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA TO LAKE ONTARIO-NORTHEAST NY MONDAY...A NON-PLAYER FOR OUR
REGION...ALLOWING CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR.

WHILE STILL A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT OVERALL...THE HIGH
THIN CLOUDS SOMEWHAT LIMITED THE TEMPERATURE DROPOFF DURING THESE
PREDAWN HOURS IN NEPA...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS WYOMING VALLEY WHICH
STAYED ABOVE FREEZING. UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IS MORE COMMON IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH COLDEST READINGS IN
ELMIRA AT 26 DEGREES AND NORWICH AT 27 DEGREES.

DESPITE THE COOL START...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY GET UNDERWAY
AS EVIDENCED BY SURGE IN 925-850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MODELS.
SURFACE RIDGE BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...ENCOURAGING
ESTABLISHMENT OF RETURN FLOW AND THUS WARMING GETTING REALIZED
EVEN AT THE SURFACE LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD
MANAGE JUST A HAIR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TODAY...AND MUCH MORE SO INTO
MONDAY AS FURTHER WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS. UPPER 50S-MID 60S
TODAY...MID 60S-LOW 70S MONDAY WITH COOLEST READINGS BOTH DAYS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS-TUG HILL PLATEAU. LOWS
TONIGHT 30S TO NEAR 40...MILDEST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOISTURE PROFILES ON BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK AND HAVE A PRETTY
GOOD CHANCE AT ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES REGION BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WE MADE ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THIS
PERIOD WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING THE UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING WITH TIME. SHOWERS
BECOME MORE LIKELY FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
IF ALL GOES AS PLANNED...SHOULD BE PASSING INTO EASTERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INTERESTING SHOT OF SUB FREEZING AIR
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON A FRESH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE APRIL. CONDITIONS MODERATE FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...AND PROBABLY MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT AND
FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE DRIFT INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT THE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. EACH WEATHER FEATURE APPEARS
TO BE RATHER WEAK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...AND IT SEEMS AS THOUGH
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A HALF INCH FOR THE WHOLE 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR ALL TERMINALS. OCCASIONAL HIGH THIN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20 KFT
AGL. HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MON THROUGH MON NGT...VFR.

TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WED MRNG ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
130 AM UPDATE...
THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH WIND TODAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...WELL
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP EVEN LOWER...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THAT TREND CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY YET LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...A
WETTING RAIN IS ON THE WAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 201035
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
635 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. OTHER THAN
OCCASIONAL THIN HIGH CLOUDS...THIS WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
VALUES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY FURTHER WARMING MONDAY. OUR NEXT RAIN
ARRIVES TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
VEIL OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS PERSISTED MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER
PA/SOUTHERN NY...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT THEY ARE NOW DIMINISHING. THAT WILL BE THE
ONLY IMPACT FROM THAT DISTANT SYSTEM FOR OUR REGION...WITH THE
BROAD SURFACE HIGH NOW BUILDING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES MUCH MORE DOMINANT OF OUR WEATHER. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY WHILE SETTLING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA TO LAKE ONTARIO-NORTHEAST NY MONDAY...A NON-PLAYER FOR OUR
REGION...ALLOWING CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR.

WHILE STILL A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT OVERALL...THE HIGH
THIN CLOUDS SOMEWHAT LIMITED THE TEMPERATURE DROPOFF DURING THESE
PREDAWN HOURS IN NEPA...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS WYOMING VALLEY WHICH
STAYED ABOVE FREEZING. UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IS MORE COMMON IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH COLDEST READINGS IN
ELMIRA AT 26 DEGREES AND NORWICH AT 27 DEGREES.

DESPITE THE COOL START...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY GET UNDERWAY
AS EVIDENCED BY SURGE IN 925-850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MODELS.
SURFACE RIDGE BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...ENCOURAGING
ESTABLISHMENT OF RETURN FLOW AND THUS WARMING GETTING REALIZED
EVEN AT THE SURFACE LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD
MANAGE JUST A HAIR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TODAY...AND MUCH MORE SO INTO
MONDAY AS FURTHER WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS. UPPER 50S-MID 60S
TODAY...MID 60S-LOW 70S MONDAY WITH COOLEST READINGS BOTH DAYS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS-TUG HILL PLATEAU. LOWS
TONIGHT 30S TO NEAR 40...MILDEST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOISTURE PROFILES ON BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK AND HAVE A PRETTY
GOOD CHANCE AT ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES REGION BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WE MADE ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THIS
PERIOD WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING THE UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING WITH TIME. SHOWERS
BECOME MORE LIKELY FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
IF ALL GOES AS PLANNED...SHOULD BE PASSING INTO EASTERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INTERESTING SHOT OF SUB FREEZING AIR
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON A FRESH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE APRIL. CONDITIONS MODERATE FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...AND PROBABLY MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT AND
FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE DRIFT INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT THE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. EACH WEATHER FEATURE APPEARS
TO BE RATHER WEAK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...AND IT SEEMS AS THOUGH
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A HALF INCH FOR THE WHOLE 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR ALL TERMINALS. OCCASIONAL HIGH THIN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20 KFT
AGL. HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MON THROUGH MON NGT...VFR.

TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WED MRNG ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
130 AM UPDATE...
THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH WIND TODAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...WELL
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP EVEN LOWER...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THAT TREND CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY YET LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...A
WETTING RAIN IS ON THE WAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 200713
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
313 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL THIN HIGH CLOUDS...THIS WILL
ALLOW SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES TODAY TO ESPECIALLY MONDAY. OUR NEXT
RAIN ARRIVES TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
VEIL OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS EXTENDS ALL THE WAY UP OVER PA/SOUTHERN
NY...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THAT WILL BE THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THAT SYSTEM FOR OUR
REGION...WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH NOW BUILDING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES MUCH MORE DOMINANT OF OUR WEATHER. A NORTHERN
STREAM COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY WHILE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CANADA TO LAKE ONTARIO-NORTHEAST NY MONDAY...A NON-PLAYER
FOR OUR REGION...ALLOWING CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR.

WHILE STILL A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT OVERALL...THE HIGH
THIN CLOUDS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE TEMPERATURE DROPOFF DURING
THESE PREDAWN HOURS /ESPECIALLY TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD/. EXPECTING MUCH
OF  NEPA TO END UP STAYING ABOVE FREEZING...WHILE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S WILL BE MORE COMMON IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING.

DESPITE THE COOL START...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY GET UNDERWAY
AS EVIDENCED BY SURGE IN 925-850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MODELS.
SURFACE RIDGE BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...ENCOURAGING
ESTABLISHMENT OF RETURN FLOW AND THUS WARMING GETTING REALIZED
EVEN AT THE SURFACE LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD
MANAGE JUST A HAIR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TODAY...AND MUCH MORE SO INTO
MONDAY AS FURTHER WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS. UPPER 50S-MID 60S
TODAY...MID 60S-LOW 70S MONDAY WITH COOLEST READINGS BOTH DAYS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS-TUG HILL PLATEAU. LOWS
TONIGHT 30S TO NEAR 40...MILDEST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOISTURE PROFILES ON BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK AND HAVE A PRETTY
GOOD CHANCE AT ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES REGION BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WE MADE ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THIS
PERIOD WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING THE UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING WITH TIME. SHOWERS
BECOME MORE LIKELY FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
IF ALL GOES AS PLANNED...SHOULD BE PASSING INTO EASTERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INTERESTING SHOT OF SUB FREEZING AIR
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON A FRESH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE APRIL. CONDITIONS MODERATE FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...AND PROBABLY MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT AND
FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE DRIFT INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT THE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. EACH WEATHER FEATURE APPEARS
TO BE RATHER WEAK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...AND IT SEEMS AS THOUGH
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A HALF INCH FOR THE WHOLE 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR ALL TERMINALS. SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS AROUND OR ABOVE 25 KFT
AGL...ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE IN CHARGE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SUN NGT THROUGH MON NGT...MAINLY VFR.

TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS AS SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO WED MORNING ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
130 AM UPDATE...
THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH WIND TODAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...WELL
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP EVEN LOWER...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THAT TREND CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY YET LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...A
WETTING RAIN IS ON THE WAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 200531
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
131 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL THIN HIGH CLOUDS...THIS WILL
ALLOW SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES TODAY TO ESPECIALLY MONDAY. OUR NEXT
RAIN ARRIVES TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
VEIL OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS EXTENDS ALL THE WAY UP OVER PA/SOUTHERN
NY...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THAT WILL BE THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THAT SYSTEM FOR OUR
REGION...WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH NOW BUILDING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES MUCH MORE DOMINANT OF OUR WEATHER. A NORTHERN
STREAM COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY WHILE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CANADA TO LAKE ONTARIO-NORTHEAST NY MONDAY...A NON-PLAYER
FOR OUR REGION...ALLOWING CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR.

WHILE STILL A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT OVERALL...THE HIGH
THIN CLOUDS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE TEMPERATURE DROPOFF DURING
THESE PREDAWN HOURS /ESPECIALLY TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD/. EXPECTING MUCH
OF  NEPA TO END UP STAYING ABOVE FREEZING...WHILE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S WILL BE MORE COMMON IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING.

DESPITE THE COOL START...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY GET UNDERWAY
AS EVIDENCED BY SURGE IN 925-850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MODELS.
SURFACE RIDGE BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...ENCOURAGING
ESTABLISHMENT OF RETURN FLOW AND THUS WARMING GETTING REALIZED
EVEN AT THE SURFACE LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD
MANAGE JUST A HAIR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TODAY...AND MUCH MORE SO INTO
MONDAY AS FURTHER WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS. UPPER 50S-MID 60S
TODAY...MID 60S-LOW 70S MONDAY WITH COOLEST READINGS BOTH DAYS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS-TUG HILL PLATEAU. LOWS
TONIGHT 30S TO NEAR 40...MILDEST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY UNTIL CLOSE TO TUE AFTN. WL KEEP LKLY
POPS IN FOR ENTIRE DAY ON TUESDAY AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. WITH CLD
CVR AND SHOWERS OFF AND ON THRU THE DAY EXPECT TEMPS WL ONLY BE IN
THE 60S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY TUES NIGHT THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA AND A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS/UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY STILL BE LINGERING. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE RAIN AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THEY MAY LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION ON THURS BRINGING A BEAUTIFUL AND QUIET DAY. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
ON FRI. LARGE DIFFERENCE STILL EXIST WITHIN GUIDANCE STARTING ON
FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES CONSIST OF TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. A CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY ACROSS THE CWA AND RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY FRI AND SAT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
HAVE A SLIGHT RISING TREND AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
30S WED MORNING AND RISE INTO THE LOW 40S BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR ALL TERMINALS. SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS AROUND OR ABOVE 25 KFT
AGL...ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE IN CHARGE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SUN NGT THROUGH MON NGT...MAINLY VFR.

TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS AS SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO WED MORNING ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
130 AM UPDATE...
THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH WIND TODAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...WELL
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP EVEN LOWER...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THAT TREND CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY YET LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...A
WETTING RAIN IS ON THE WAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 200226
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1026 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOMORROW INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1020 PM UPDATE...
MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS AND TEMPERATURES IN
CENTRAL TO ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN ZONES. OVERALL JUST A LITTLE MILDER
OVERNIGHT...THANKS TO BROADER-THAN-EXPECTED SHIELD OF HIGH THIN
CLOUDS...THUS PREVENTING AS PRECIPITOUS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
DROP OFF AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

615 PM UPDATE...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

1 PM UPDATE...
1037MB HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVR JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING DOWN INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS WL BUILD EAST TONIGHT INTO
QUEBEC TWD AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES. AS IT DOES, WINDS WL
BCM LGT OUT OF THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE AFT 06Z. STRONG
INVERSION WL SET UP ARND 1KFT BY MRNG WITH A 3-8F SPREAD IN TEMPS
BTWN RIDGES AND DEEPER VLYS.

SKIES WL BE MOCLR TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS SNEAKING IN OVRNGT
FM SYSTEMS ACRS THE SERN U.S AND SW FLOW COMING UP THRU THE MIDWEST.
WINDS BCM SRLY AFT 12Z SUNDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND AHD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS WL RESULT IN H8 TEMPS INCRSG TO BTWN +1 (IN THE EAST)
AND +5C (IN THE FINGER LKS). THUS, COOLEST MAXES TOMORROW WL BE ACRS
WRN CATS AND WARMEST ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE HIGH TEMPS WL RANGE
FM 5-8 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
SRLY SFC WINDS WL CONT SUN NGT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM. H5 LOW WL LIFT
OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD CLDS ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE S/WV RIDGE AS IT FLATTENS OUT SUN NGT. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN QUITE A BIT COLDER WITH MINS FOR MON MRNG UNDER
MOCLR SKIES FM THE SRN TIER AND POINTS SOUTH. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE FINGER LKS IN SW FLOW AND ALSO INCREASING CLDS.

MON EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS APPCHG AND/OR
EXCEEDING 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS AS H8 TEMPS WARM TO +8C. HIPRES WL
KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY UNTIL CLOSE TO TUE AFTN. WL KEEP LKLY POPS IN FOR
ENTIRE DAY ON TUESDAY AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. WITH CLD CVR AND SHOWERS
OFF AND ON THRU THE DAY EXPECT TEMPS WL ONLY BE IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY TUES NIGHT THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA AND A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS/UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY STILL BE LINGERING. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE RAIN AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THEY MAY LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION ON THURS BRINGING A BEAUTIFUL AND QUIET DAY. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
ON FRI. LARGE DIFFERENCE STILL EXIST WITHIN GUIDANCE STARTING ON
FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES CONSIST OF TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. A CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY ACROSS THE CWA AND RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY FRI AND SAT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
HAVE A SLIGHT RISING TREND AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
30S WED MORNING AND RISE INTO THE LOW 40S BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. UPPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AMERICAN
SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPLY A VAIL OF CIRRUS ALOFT...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL WEAKEN
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER 15Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
240 PM UPDATE...
RH VALUES RECOVER NICELY TONIGHT AND THEN DROP TO NEAR AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW 20% DURING THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS CNY AND NEPA.
10-HOUR FUELS WILL REMAIN DRY AT LESS THAN 10%, HOWEVER WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...CMG
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 192344
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
744 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOMORROW INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

1 PM UPDATE...
1037MB HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVR JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING DOWN INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS WL BUILD EAST TONIGHT INTO
QUEBEC TWD AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES. AS IT DOES, WINDS WL
BCM LGT OUT OF THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE AFT 06Z. STRONG
INVERSION WL SET UP ARND 1KFT BY MRNG WITH A 3-8F SPREAD IN TEMPS
BTWN RIDGES AND DEEPER VLYS.

SKIES WL BE MOCLR TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS SNEAKING IN OVRNGT
FM SYSTEMS ACRS THE SERN U.S AND SW FLOW COMING UP THRU THE MIDWEST.
WINDS BCM SRLY AFT 12Z SUNDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND AHD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS WL RESULT IN H8 TEMPS INCRSG TO BTWN +1 (IN THE EAST)
AND +5C (IN THE FINGER LKS). THUS, COOLEST MAXES TOMORROW WL BE ACRS
WRN CATS AND WARMEST ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE HIGH TEMPS WL RANGE
FM 5-8 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
SRLY SFC WINDS WL CONT SUN NGT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM. H5 LOW WL LIFT
OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD CLDS ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE S/WV RIDGE AS IT FLATTENS OUT SUN NGT. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN QUITE A BIT COLDER WITH MINS FOR MON MRNG UNDER
MOCLR SKIES FM THE SRN TIER AND POINTS SOUTH. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE FINGER LKS IN SW FLOW AND ALSO INCREASING CLDS.

MON EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS APPCHG AND/OR
EXCEEDING 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS AS H8 TEMPS WARM TO +8C. HIPRES WL
KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY UNTIL CLOSE TO TUE AFTN. WL KEEP LKLY POPS IN FOR
ENTIRE DAY ON TUESDAY AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. WITH CLD CVR AND SHOWERS
OFF AND ON THRU THE DAY EXPECT TEMPS WL ONLY BE IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY TUES NIGHT THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA AND A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS/UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY STILL BE LINGERING. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE RAIN AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THEY MAY LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION ON THURS BRINGING A BEAUTIFUL AND QUIET DAY. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
ON FRI. LARGE DIFFERENCE STILL EXIST WITHIN GUIDANCE STARTING ON
FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES CONSIST OF TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. A CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY ACROSS THE CWA AND RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY FRI AND SAT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
HAVE A SLIGHT RISING TREND AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
30S WED MORNING AND RISE INTO THE LOW 40S BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. UPPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AMERICAN
SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPLY A VAIL OF CIRRUS ALOFT...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL WEAKEN
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER 15Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
240 PM UPDATE...
RH VALUES RECOVER NICELY TONIGHT AND THEN DROP TO NEAR AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW 20% DURING THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS CNY AND NEPA.
10-HOUR FUELS WILL REMAIN DRY AT LESS THAN 10%, HOWEVER WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...CMG
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 192218
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
618 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOMORROW INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

1 PM UPDATE...
1037MB HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVR JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING DOWN INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS WL BUILD EAST TONIGHT INTO
QUEBEC TWD AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES. AS IT DOES, WINDS WL
BCM LGT OUT OF THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE AFT 06Z. STRONG
INVERSION WL SET UP ARND 1KFT BY MRNG WITH A 3-8F SPREAD IN TEMPS
BTWN RIDGES AND DEEPER VLYS.

SKIES WL BE MOCLR TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS SNEAKING IN OVRNGT
FM SYSTEMS ACRS THE SERN U.S AND SW FLOW COMING UP THRU THE MIDWEST.
WINDS BCM SRLY AFT 12Z SUNDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND AHD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS WL RESULT IN H8 TEMPS INCRSG TO BTWN +1 (IN THE EAST)
AND +5C (IN THE FINGER LKS). THUS, COOLEST MAXES TOMORROW WL BE ACRS
WRN CATS AND WARMEST ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE HIGH TEMPS WL RANGE
FM 5-8 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
SRLY SFC WINDS WL CONT SUN NGT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM. H5 LOW WL LIFT
OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD CLDS ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE S/WV RIDGE AS IT FLATTENS OUT SUN NGT. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN QUITE A BIT COLDER WITH MINS FOR MON MRNG UNDER
MOCLR SKIES FM THE SRN TIER AND POINTS SOUTH. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE FINGER LKS IN SW FLOW AND ALSO INCREASING CLDS.

MON EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS APPCHG AND/OR
EXCEEDING 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS AS H8 TEMPS WARM TO +8C. HIPRES WL
KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY UNTIL CLOSE TO TUE AFTN. WL KEEP LKLY POPS IN FOR
ENTIRE DAY ON TUESDAY AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. WITH CLD CVR AND SHOWERS
OFF AND ON THRU THE DAY EXPECT TEMPS WL ONLY BE IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY TUES NIGHT THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA AND A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS/UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY STILL BE LINGERING. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE RAIN AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THEY MAY LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION ON THURS BRINGING A BEAUTIFUL AND QUIET DAY. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
ON FRI. LARGE DIFFERENCE STILL EXIST WITHIN GUIDANCE STARTING ON
FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES CONSIST OF TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. A CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY ACROSS THE CWA AND RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY FRI AND SAT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
HAVE A SLIGHT RISING TREND AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
30S WED MORNING AND RISE INTO THE LOW 40S BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
THE MVFR DECK OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK HAS BEEN SLOW TO LIFT THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AND EXPECT ALL CIGS TO BECOME VFR WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR. AFTER THE DECK LIFTS LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD MIXING TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
240 PM UPDATE...
RH VALUES RECOVER NICELY TONIGHT AND THEN DROP TO NEAR AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW 20% DURING THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS CNY AND NEPA.
10-HOUR FUELS WILL REMAIN DRY AT LESS THAN 10%, HOWEVER WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 191915
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
315 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOMORROW INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
1037MB HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVR JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING DOWN INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS WL BUILD EAST TONIGHT INTO
QUEBEC TWD AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES. AS IT DOES, WINDS WL
BCM LGT OUT OF THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE AFT 06Z. STRONG
INVERSION WL SET UP ARND 1KFT BY MRNG WITH A 3-8F SPREAD IN TEMPS
BTWN RIDGES AND DEEPER VLYS.

SKIES WL BE MOCLR TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS SNEAKING IN OVRNGT
FM SYSTEMS ACRS THE SERN U.S AND SW FLOW COMING UP THRU THE MIDWEST.
WINDS BCM SRLY AFT 12Z SUNDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND AHD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS WL RESULT IN H8 TEMPS INCRSG TO BTWN +1 (IN THE EAST)
AND +5C (IN THE FINGER LKS). THUS, COOLEST MAXES TOMORROW WL BE ACRS
WRN CATS AND WARMEST ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE HIGH TEMPS WL RANGE
FM 5-8 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
SRLY SFC WINDS WL CONT SUN NGT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM. H5 LOW WL LIFT
OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD CLDS ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE S/WV RIDGE AS IT FLATTENS OUT SUN NGT. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN QUITE A BIT COLDER WITH MINS FOR MON MRNG UNDER
MOCLR SKIES FM THE SRN TIER AND POINTS SOUTH. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE FINGER LKS IN SW FLOW AND ALSO INCREASING CLDS.

MON EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS APPCHG AND/OR
EXCEEDING 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS AS H8 TEMPS WARM TO +8C. HIPRES WL
KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY UNTIL CLOSE TO TUE AFTN. WL KEEP LKLY POPS IN FOR
ENTIRE DAY ON TUESDAY AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. WITH CLD CVR AND SHOWERS
OFF AND ON THRU THE DAY EXPECT TEMPS WL ONLY BE IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY TUES NIGHT THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA AND A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS/UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY STILL BE LINGERING. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE RAIN AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THEY MAY LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION ON THURS BRINGING A BEAUTIFUL AND QUIET DAY. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
ON FRI. LARGE DIFFERENCE STILL EXIST WITHIN GUIDANCE STARTING ON
FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES CONSIST OF TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. A CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY ACROSS THE CWA AND RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY FRI AND SAT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
HAVE A SLIGHT RISING TREND AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
30S WED MORNING AND RISE INTO THE LOW 40S BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
THE MVFR DECK OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK HAS BEEN SLOW TO LIFT THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AND EXPECT ALL CIGS TO BECOME VFR WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR. AFTER THE DECK LIFTS LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD MIXING TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
240 PM UPDATE...
RH VALUES RECOVER NICELY TONIGHT AND THEN DROP TO NEAR AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW 20% DURING THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS CNY AND NEPA.
10-HOUR FUELS WILL REMAIN DRY AT LESS THAN 10%, HOWEVER WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10MPH DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH
FIRE WEATHER...PVN









000
FXUS61 KBGM 191848
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
248 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOMORROW INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
1037MB HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVR JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING DOWN INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS WL BUILD EAST TONIGHT INTO
QUEBEC TWD AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES. AS IT DOES, WINDS WL
BCM LGT OUT OF THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE AFT 06Z. STRONG
INVERSION WL SET UP ARND 1KFT BY MRNG WITH A 3-8F SPREAD IN TEMPS
BTWN RIDGES AND DEEPER VLYS.

SKIES WL BE MOCLR TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS SNEAKING IN OVRNGT
FM SYSTEMS ACRS THE SERN U.S AND SW FLOW COMING UP THRU THE MIDWEST.
WINDS BCM SRLY AFT 12Z SUNDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND AHD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS WL RESULT IN H8 TEMPS INCRSG TO BTWN +1 (IN THE EAST)
AND +5C (IN THE FINGER LKS). THUS, COOLEST MAXES TOMORROW WL BE ACRS
WRN CATS AND WARMEST ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE HIGH TEMPS WL RANGE
FM 5-8 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
SRLY SFC WINDS WL CONT SUN NGT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM. H5 LOW WL LIFT
OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD CLDS ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE S/WV RIDGE AS IT FLATTENS OUT SUN NGT. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN QUITE A BIT COLDER WITH MINS FOR MON MRNG UNDER
MOCLR SKIES FM THE SRN TIER AND POINTS SOUTH. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE FINGER LKS IN SW FLOW AND ALSO INCREASING CLDS.

MON EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS APPCHG AND/OR
EXCEEDING 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS AS H8 TEMPS WARM TO +8C. HIPRES WL
KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY UNTIL CLOSE TO TUE AFTN. WL KEEP LKLY POPS IN FOR
ENTIRE DAY ON TUESDAY AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. WITH CLD CVR AND SHOWERS
OFF AND ON THRU THE DAY EXPECT TEMPS WL ONLY BE IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. GFS-ECMWF RUNS BOTH KEEP
IT AS AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH...BEFORE DIFFERING ON ITS
EVOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES GET SUB-540
DECAMETERS FOR A TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THAT UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH.

DRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CHARGE AT SURFACE...AND RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALSO
MODERATING...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY...BUT NEXT WAVE MAY ALSO BE
APPROACHING BY THEN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF COURSE WILL BE SORTED OUT BETTER IN COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
THE MVFR DECK OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK HAS BEEN SLOW TO LIFT THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AND EXPECT ALL CIGS TO BECOME VFR WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR. AFTER THE DECK LIFTS LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD MIXING TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
240 PM UPDATE...
RH VALUES RECOVER NICELY TONIGHT AND THEN DROP TO NEAR AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW 20% DURING THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS CNY AND NEPA.
10-HOUR FUELS WILL REMAIN DRY AT LESS THAN 10%, HOWEVER WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10MPH DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KAH
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 191846
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
246 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TODAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL
MODERATE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
1037MB HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVR JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING DOWN INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS WL BUILD EAST TONIGHT INTO
QUEBEC TWD AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES. AS IT DOES, WINDS WL
BCM LGT OUT OF THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE AFT 06Z. STRONG
INVERSION WL SET UP ARND 1KFT BY MRNG WITH A 3-8F SPREAD IN TEMPS
BTWN RIDGES AND DEEPER VLYS.

SKIES WL BE MOCLR TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS SNEAKING IN OVRNGT
FM SYSTEMS ACRS THE SERN U.S AND SW FLOW COMING UP THRU THE MIDWEST.
WINDS BCM SRLY AFT 12Z SUNDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND AHD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS WL RESULT IN H8 TEMPS INCRSG TO BTWN +1 (IN THE EAST)
AND +5C (IN THE FINGER LKS). THUS, COOLEST MAXES TOMORROW WL BE ACRS
WRN CATS AND WARMEST ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE HIGH TEMPS WL RANGE
FM 5-8 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
SRLY SFC WINDS WL CONT SUN NGT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM. H5 LOW WL LIFT
OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD CLDS ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE S/WV RIDGE AS IT FLATTENS OUT SUN NGT. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN QUITE A BIT COLDER WITH MINS FOR MON MRNG UNDER
MOCLR SKIES FM THE SRN TIER AND POINTS SOUTH. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE FINGER LKS IN SW FLOW AND ALSO INCREASING CLDS.

MON EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS APPCHG AND/OR
EXCEEDING 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS AS H8 TEMPS WARM TO +8C. HIPRES WL
KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY UNTIL CLOSE TO TUE AFTN. WL KEEP LKLY POPS IN FOR
ENTIRE DAY ON TUESDAY AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. WITH CLD CVR AND SHOWERS
OFF AND ON THRU THE DAY EXPECT TEMPS WL ONLY BE IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. GFS-ECMWF RUNS BOTH KEEP
IT AS AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH...BEFORE DIFFERING ON ITS
EVOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES GET SUB-540
DECAMETERS FOR A TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THAT UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH.

DRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CHARGE AT SURFACE...AND RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALSO
MODERATING...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY...BUT NEXT WAVE MAY ALSO BE
APPROACHING BY THEN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF COURSE WILL BE SORTED OUT BETTER IN COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
THE MVFR DECK OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK HAS BEEN SLOW TO LIFT THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AND EXPECT ALL CIGS TO BECOME VFR WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR. AFTER THE DECK LIFTS LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD MIXING TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
240 PM UPDATE...
RH VALUES RECOVER NICELY TONIGHT AND THEN DROP TO NEAR AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW 20% DURING THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS CNY AND NEPA.
10-HOUR FUELS WILL REMAIN DRY AT LESS THAN 10%, HOWEVER WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10MPH DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KAH
FIRE WEATHER...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 191754
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
154 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TODAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL
MODERATE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
1037MB HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVR JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING DOWN INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS WL BUILD EAST TONIGHT INTO
QUEBEC TWD AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES. AS IT DOES, WINDS WL
BCM LGT OUT OF THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE AFT 06Z. STRONG
INVERSION WL SET UP ARND 1KFT BY MRNG WITH A 3-8F SPREAD IN TEMPS
BTWN RIDGES AND DEEPER VLYS.

SKIES WL BE MOCLR TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS SNEAKING IN OVRNGT
FM SYSTEMS ACRS THE SERN U.S AND SW FLOW COMING UP THRU THE MIDWEST.
WINDS BCM SRLY AFT 12Z SUNDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND AHD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS WL RESULT IN H8 TEMPS INCRSG TO BTWN +1 (IN THE EAST)
AND +5C (IN THE FINGER LKS). THUS, COOLEST MAXES TOMORROW WL BE ACRS
WRN CATS AND WARMEST ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE HIGH TEMPS WL RANGE
FM 5-8 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LARGER SEPARATION BETWEEN
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT
/ESPECIALLY FIRST HALF BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE
IN/...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED WARMER TREND OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY...AFTER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM AGREE NOW ON WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TO SWEEP COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE RAIN ITSELF IS A SOLID BET...IT IS JUST A MATTER OF WHICH TIME
OF DAY WILL BE THE MAIN RAINFALL. WENT AHEAD WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...AND AS THE TIME NEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER HEM IN WHICH SPECIFIC HOURS WILL BE INVOLVED. FRONT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH...TO WHICH
WE ANTICIPATE LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN DAMPENING PLANS
FOR GENERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...SO NO LIGHTNING EXPECTED.

RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AND THEN EVENTUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TO UPPER 50S-MID 60S FOR HIGHS...FOLLOWED
BY UPPER 30S-LOW 40S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. GFS-ECMWF RUNS BOTH KEEP
IT AS AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH...BEFORE DIFFERING ON ITS
EVOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES GET SUB-540
DECAMETERS FOR A TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THAT UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH.

DRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CHARGE AT SURFACE...AND RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALSO
MODERATING...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY...BUT NEXT WAVE MAY ALSO BE
APPROACHING BY THEN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF COURSE WILL BE SORTED OUT BETTER IN COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
THE MVFR DECK OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK HAS BEEN SLOW TO LIFT THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AND EXPECT ALL CIGS TO BECOME VFR WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR. AFTER THE DECK LIFTS LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD MIXING TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
5 AM SAT UPDATE...

FOR TODAY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE
30S PERCENT IN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT
IN THE REST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. FINE FUELS WERE RUNNING BELOW 10
PERCENT. THIS COMES CLOSE TO OUR RED FLAG CRITERIA IN PA. IN NY
THE CRITERIA IS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE. BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE THE WIND GUSTS IN NE PA AND THAT IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES
AT THIS TIME. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH CTP AND PHI WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO COVER AND DAY SHIFT CAN COORDINATE WITH PA STATE PARTNERS
TO SEE IF RED FLAG IS WARRANTED LATER THIS MORNING.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KAH
FIRE WEATHER...DJN









000
FXUS61 KBGM 191647
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1247 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TODAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL
MODERATE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
1037MB HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVR JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING DOWN INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS WL BUILD EAST TONIGHT INTO
QUEBEC TWD AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES. AS IT DOES, WINDS WL
BCM LGT OUT OF THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE AFT 06Z. STRONG
INVERSION WL SET UP ARND 1KFT BY MRNG WITH A 3-8F SPREAD IN TEMPS
BTWN RIDGES AND DEEPER VLYS.

SKIES WL BE MOCLR TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS SNEAKING IN OVRNGT
FM SYSTEMS ACRS THE SERN U.S AND SW FLOW COMING UP THRU THE MIDWEST.
WINDS BCM SRLY AFT 12Z SUNDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND AHD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS WL RESULT IN H8 TEMPS INCRSG TO BTWN +1 (IN THE EAST)
AND +5C (IN THE FINGER LKS). THUS, COOLEST MAXES TOMORROW WL BE ACRS
WRN CATS AND WARMEST ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE HIGH TEMPS WL RANGE
FM 5-8 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LARGER SEPARATION BETWEEN
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT
/ESPECIALLY FIRST HALF BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE
IN/...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED WARMER TREND OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY...AFTER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM AGREE NOW ON WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TO SWEEP COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE RAIN ITSELF IS A SOLID BET...IT IS JUST A MATTER OF WHICH TIME
OF DAY WILL BE THE MAIN RAINFALL. WENT AHEAD WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...AND AS THE TIME NEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER HEM IN WHICH SPECIFIC HOURS WILL BE INVOLVED. FRONT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH...TO WHICH
WE ANTICIPATE LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN DAMPENING PLANS
FOR GENERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...SO NO LIGHTNING EXPECTED.

RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AND THEN EVENTUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TO UPPER 50S-MID 60S FOR HIGHS...FOLLOWED
BY UPPER 30S-LOW 40S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. GFS-ECMWF RUNS BOTH KEEP
IT AS AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH...BEFORE DIFFERING ON ITS
EVOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES GET SUB-540
DECAMETERS FOR A TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THAT UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH.

DRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CHARGE AT SURFACE...AND RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALSO
MODERATING...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY...BUT NEXT WAVE MAY ALSO BE
APPROACHING BY THEN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF COURSE WILL BE SORTED OUT BETTER IN COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS REACHED INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND WILL SOON BE
THRU KAVP. POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS HAS SCATTERED OUT. A FEW PATCHY
MVFR CIGS WERE STILL PRESENT IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF C NY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SCT-BKN VFR
CUMULUS/SC TO FORM LATE MORNING WITH INSOLATION. HOWEVER...WITH
SUCH DRY AIR ABOVE THE PROJECTED MIXED LAYER...THESE CLDS SHUD
CLEAR OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MOST TAFS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
AT KRME WHERE THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COOLER WHICH WILL LEAD TO
THE CLDS HANGING ON LONGER.

AFTER CLDS CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THRU
12Z SUN.

EXPECT NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
5 AM SAT UPDATE...

FOR TODAY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE
30S PERCENT IN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT
IN THE REST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. FINE FUELS WERE RUNNING BELOW 10
PERCENT. THIS COMES CLOSE TO OUR RED FLAG CRITERIA IN PA. IN NY
THE CRITERIA IS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE. BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE THE WIND GUSTS IN NE PA AND THAT IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES
AT THIS TIME. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH CTP AND PHI WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO COVER AND DAY SHIFT CAN COORDINATE WITH PA STATE PARTNERS
TO SEE IF RED FLAG IS WARRANTED LATER THIS MORNING.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KBGM 191408
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1008 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TODAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL
MODERATE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
10 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF CLDS IS DROPPING SOUTH IN NRLY FLOW. HV UPDATED GRIDS TO
GO PRTLY-MSTLY CLDY FOR THE MRNG HRS NORTH OF THE SRN TIER AND
SUN SHUD WORK ITS MAGIC TO DISSIPATE CLD CVR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS. HV MASSAGED HRLY T/TD GRIDS AND WL LWR MAXES LATER IF NEEDED
DUE TO CLD CVR, HWVR THINKS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW PATCHY LOWER SC
ACRS C NY AND NRN PA WITH PLENTY OF CI ACRS PA FROM A SRN BRANCH
CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S AS OF 6 AM. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD WILL
BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH THIS MORNING AS A DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FORCES THE UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE
FARTHER SOUTH TODAY. BEHIND THIS DIGGING UPPER LEVEL WAVE A POLAR
AIR MASS WILL DROP SOUTH WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY
OVER NY/PA. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN ACRS THE ENTIRE WFO
BINGHAMTON FORECAST AREA...MORE SO THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. THE
ADVERTISED LULL IN CLDS IS OCCURRING AND WILL CONT UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. SINCE LL MOISTURE IS NOT AS MUCH AS EARLIER EXPECTED NOT
EXPECTING ANY SPRINKLE ACVTY. EVEN WITH SFC DEWPOINTS A BIT LOWER
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE TOP OF THE
PROJECTED MIXED LAYER WILL BRING TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB DOWN TO
-1C IN NE PA TO -5C IN NC NY BY LATE MORNING. WITH INSOLATION
BELIEVE SCT-BKN SC/CU FORMS BY LATE MORNING GIVEN THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND SFC DWPTS CLOSE TO FREEZING. SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT AS
THE BNDRY LAYER GROWS BEYOND 850 MB THIS AFTERNOON. HENCE HAVE SKIES
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 850 MB AND HIGHER UP
BUILDS ACRS THE REGION WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW SO WE SHUD HAVE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME CI FROM NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD ACRS NC NY SUN PM. SUNDAY WILL BE MILDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LARGER SEPARATION BETWEEN
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT
/ESPECIALLY FIRST HALF BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE
IN/...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED WARMER TREND OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY...AFTER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM AGREE NOW ON WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TO SWEEP COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE RAIN ITSELF IS A SOLID BET...IT IS JUST A MATTER OF WHICH TIME
OF DAY WILL BE THE MAIN RAINFALL. WENT AHEAD WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...AND AS THE TIME NEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER HEM IN WHICH SPECIFIC HOURS WILL BE INVOLVED. FRONT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH...TO WHICH
WE ANTICIPATE LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN DAMPENING PLANS
FOR GENERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...SO NO LIGHTNING EXPECTED.

RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AND THEN EVENTUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TO UPPER 50S-MID 60S FOR HIGHS...FOLLOWED
BY UPPER 30S-LOW 40S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. GFS-ECMWF RUNS BOTH KEEP
IT AS AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH...BEFORE DIFFERING ON ITS
EVOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES GET SUB-540
DECAMETERS FOR A TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THAT UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH.

DRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CHARGE AT SURFACE...AND RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALSO
MODERATING...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY...BUT NEXT WAVE MAY ALSO BE
APPROACHING BY THEN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF COURSE WILL BE SORTED OUT BETTER IN COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS REACHED INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND WILL SOON BE
THRU KAVP. POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS HAS SCATTERED OUT. A FEW PATCHY
MVFR CIGS WERE STILL PRESENT IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF C NY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SCT-BKN VFR
CUMULUS/SC TO FORM LATE MORNING WITH INSOLATION. HOWEVER...WITH
SUCH DRY AIR ABOVE THE PROJECTED MIXED LAYER...THESE CLDS SHUD
CLEAR OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MOST TAFS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
AT KRME WHERE THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COOLER WHICH WILL LEAD TO
THE CLDS HANGING ON LONGER.

AFTER CLDS CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THRU
12Z SUN.

EXPECT NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
5 AM SAT UPDATE...

FOR TODAY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE
30S PERCENT IN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT
IN THE REST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. FINE FUELS WERE RUNNING BELOW 10
PERCENT. THIS COMES CLOSE TO OUR RED FLAG CRITERIA IN PA. IN NY
THE CRITERIA IS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE. BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE THE WIND GUSTS IN NE PA AND THAT IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES
AT THIS TIME. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH CTP AND PHI WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO COVER AND DAY SHIFT CAN COORDINATE WITH PA STATE PARTNERS
TO SEE IF RED FLAG IS WARRANTED LATER THIS MORNING.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 191041
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TODAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL
MODERATE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW PATCHY LOWER SC
ACRS C NY AND NRN PA WITH PLENTY OF CI ACRS PA FROM A SRN BRANCH
CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWEAST U.S AS OF 6 AM. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD WILL
BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH THIS MORNING AS A DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FORCES THE UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE
FARTHER SOUTH TODAY. BEHIND THIS DIGGING UPPER LEVEL WAVE A POLAR
AIR MASS WILL DROP SOUTH WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY
OVER NY/PA. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN ACRS THE ENTIRE WFO
BINGHAMTON FORECAST AREA...MORE SO THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. THE
ADVERTISED LULL IN CLDS IS OCCURRING AND WILL CONT UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. SINCE LL MOISTURE IS NOT AS MUCH AS EARLIER EXPECTED NOT
EXPECTING ANY SPRINKLE ACVTY. EVEN WITH SFC DEWPOINTS A BIT LOWER
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE TOP OF THE
PROJECTED MIXED LAYER WILL BRING TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB DOWN TO
-1C IN NE PA TO -5C IN NC NY BY LATE MORNING. WITH INSOLATION
BELIEVE SCT-BKN SC/CU FORMS BY LATE MORNING GIVEN THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND SFC DWPTS CLOSE TO FREEZING. SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT AS
THE BNDRY LAYER GROWS BEYOND 850 MB THIS AFTERNOON. HENCE HAVE SKIES
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 850 MB AND HIGHER UP
BUILDS ACRS THE REGION WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW SO WE SHUD HAVE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME CI FROM NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD ACRS NC NY SUN PM. SUNDAY WILL BE MILDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LARGER SEPARATION BETWEEN
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT
/ESPECIALLY FIRST HALF BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE
IN/...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED WARMER TREND OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY...AFTER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM AGREE NOW ON WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TO SWEEP COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE RAIN ITSELF IS A SOLID BET...IT IS JUST A MATTER OF WHICH TIME
OF DAY WILL BE THE MAIN RAINFALL. WENT AHEAD WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...AND AS THE TIME NEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER HEM IN WHICH SPECIFIC HOURS WILL BE INVOLVED. FRONT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH...TO WHICH
WE ANTICIPATE LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN DAMPENING PLANS
FOR GENERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...SO NO LIGHTNING EXPECTED.

RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AND THEN EVENTUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TO UPPER 50S-MID 60S FOR HIGHS...FOLLOWED
BY UPPER 30S-LOW 40S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. GFS-ECMWF RUNS BOTH KEEP
IT AS AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH...BEFORE DIFFERING ON ITS
EVOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES GET SUB-540
DECAMETERS FOR A TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THAT UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH.

DRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CHARGE AT SURFACE...AND RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALSO
MODERATING...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY...BUT NEXT WAVE MAY ALSO BE
APPROACHING BY THEN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF COURSE WILL BE SORTED OUT BETTER IN COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS REACHED INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND WILL SOON BE
THRU KAVP. POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS HAS SCATTERED OUT. A FEW PATCHY
MVFR CIGS WERE STILL PRESENT IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF C NY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SCT-BKN VFR
CUMULUS/SC TO FORM LATE MORNING WITH INSOLATION. HOWEVER...WITH
SUCH DRY AIR ABOVE THE PROJECTED MIXED LAYER...THESE CLDS SHUD
CLEAR OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MOST TAFS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
AT KRME WHERE THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COOLER WHICH WILL LEAD TO
THE CLDS HANGING ON LONGER.

AFTER CLDS CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THRU
12Z SUN.

EXPECT NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
5 AM SAT UPDATE...

FOR TODAY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE
30S PERCENT IN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT
IN THE REST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. FINE FUELS WERE RUNNING BELOW 10
PERCENT. THIS COMES CLOSE TO OUR RED FLAG CRITERIA IN PA. IN NY
THE CRITERIA IS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE. BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE THE WIND GUSTS IN NE PA AND THAT IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES
AT THIS TIME. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH CTP AND PHI WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO COVER AND DAY SHIFT CAN COORDINATE WITH PA STATE PARTNERS
TO SEE IF RED FLAG IS WARRANTED LATER THIS MORNING.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...DJN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 191015
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
615 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TODAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL
MODERATE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW PATCHY LOWER SC
ACRS C NY AND NRN PA WITH PLENTY OF CI ACRS PA FROM A SRN BRANCH
CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWEAST U.S AS OF 6 AM. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD WILL
BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH THIS MORNING AS A DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FORCES THE UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE
FARTHER SOUTH TODAY. BEHIND THIS DIGGING UPPER LEVEL WAVE A POLAR
AIR MASS WILL DROP SOUTH WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY
OVER NY/PA. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN ACRS THE ENTIRE WFO
BINGHAMTON FORECAST AREA...MORE SO THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. THE
ADVERTISED LULL IN CLDS IS OCCURRING AND WILL CONT UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. SINCE LL MOISTURE IS NOT AS MUCH AS EARLIER EXPECTED NOT
EXPECTING ANY SPRINKLE ACVTY. EVEN WITH SFC DEWPOINTS A BIT LOWER
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE TOP OF THE
PROJECTED MIXED LAYER WILL BRING TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB DOWN TO
-1C IN NE PA TO -5C IN NC NY BY LATE MORNING. WITH INSOLATION
BELIEVE SCT-BKN SC/CU FORMS BY LATE MORNING GIVEN THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND SFC DWPTS CLOSE TO FREEZING. SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT AS
THE BNDRY LAYER GROWS BEYOND 850 MB THIS AFTERNOON. HENCE HAVE SKIES
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 850 MB AND HIGHER UP
BUILDS ACRS THE REGION WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW SO WE SHUD HAVE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME CI FROM NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD ACRS NC NY SUN PM. SUNDAY WILL BE MILDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LARGER SEPARATION BETWEEN
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT
/ESPECIALLY FIRST HALF BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE
IN/...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED WARMER TREND OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY...AFTER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM AGREE NOW ON WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TO SWEEP COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE RAIN ITSELF IS A SOLID BET...IT IS JUST A MATTER OF WHICH TIME
OF DAY WILL BE THE MAIN RAINFALL. WENT AHEAD WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...AND AS THE TIME NEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER HEM IN WHICH SPECIFIC HOURS WILL BE INVOLVED. FRONT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH...TO WHICH
WE ANTICIPATE LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN DAMPENING PLANS
FOR GENERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...SO NO LIGHTNING EXPECTED.

RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AND THEN EVENTUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TO UPPER 50S-MID 60S FOR HIGHS...FOLLOWED
BY UPPER 30S-LOW 40S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. GFS-ECMWF RUNS BOTH KEEP
IT AS AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH...BEFORE DIFFERING ON ITS
EVOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES GET SUB-540
DECAMETERS FOR A TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THAT UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH.

DRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CHARGE AT SURFACE...AND RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALSO
MODERATING...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY...BUT NEXT WAVE MAY ALSO BE
APPROACHING BY THEN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF COURSE WILL BE SORTED OUT BETTER IN COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND
EXTENDED FROM ABOUT ONEONTA NY TO TOWANDA PA IN THE WFO BGM
FORECAST AREA. THERE WAS POST FRONTAL BKN-OVC CLOUDS AND JUST A
FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS OTSEGO CO. THESE INSIGNIFICANT
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHRA WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITE ERLY THIS
MORNING.

THE BKN-OVC POST FRONTL CLOUDS WAS MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR...ESPECIALLY AT KSYR...KRME...KITH AND KBGM. AS THE FRONT
WORKS FARTHER SOUTH LL DRYING WILL OCCUR AND SHUD SCATTER OUT THIS
MOISTURE SO EXPECT JUST SCT CLDS BY ARND 8-10Z.

AFTER SUNRISE...COLDER AIR WILL BLOW IN ABV THE SFC LAYER WHICH
WILL BE DECOUPLED AND HENCE THE SFC DRYING WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SCT-BKN CU/SC LAYER TO DEVELOP WITH INSOLATION FROM MID
TO LATE MORNING. I EXPECT MAINLY VFR 3500 TO 5000 FEET CLD BASES.
AS THIS OCCURS...STRGR WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SFC AND THIS CLOUD LAYER SHUD MIX OUT TO MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CLR SKIES WILL REMAIN AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SW TO NW AFTER FROPA AT KAVP AROUND 07Z OR
SO. REST OF TAF SITES WILL HAVE W-NW WINDS MAINLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE A DECENT LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KICK WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE WINDS VEER FROM THE NW TO THE N BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
2 AM SAT UPDATE...

FOR TODAY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE
30S PERCENT IN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT
IN THE REST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. FINE FUELS WERE RUNNING BELOW 10
PERCENT. THIS COMES CLOSE TO OUR RED FLAG CRITERIA IN PA. IN NY
THE CRITERIA IS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE. BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE THE WIND GUSTS IN NE PA AND THAT IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES
AT THIS TIME. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH CTP AND PHI WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO COVER AND DAY SHIFT CAN COORDINATE WITH PA STATE PARTNERS
TO SEE IF RED FLAG IS WARRANTED LATER THIS MORNING.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...DJN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 190906
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
506 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TODAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL
MODERATE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER SUNRISE...STRGR COLD AIR ADVECTION ABV THE SFC LAYER LEADS
TO COLD ENUF TEMPERATURES AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SUPPORT SCT-
BKN SC/CU FORMING WITH INSOLATION AND THE DIURNAL GROWTH OF THE
BNDRY LAYER FOR MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
FOR THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA. MESOSCALE MODELS ALL
SHOW A BAND OF VERY HIGH RH AT 925 MB ADVECTING SOUTHWARD REACHING
C NY/NRN PA ARND 12Z. AFTER 15Z THE MODELS MIX OUT THIS MOISTURE.
THE EURO/GFS...OUR LOCAL 4KM WRF...WRFARW AND HRRR EVEN GO AS FAR
AS SPITTING OUT A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP SUGGESTING SOME SPRINKLES.
FOR NOW I JUST INCREASED THE CLD CVR FOR MID TO LATE MORNING AND
THEN MIX IT OUT BY AFTERNOON. WILL REASSESS WHETHER SOME SPRINKLES
WILL BE WARRANTED FOR LATER THIS MORNING WITH NEXT UPDATE. ITS
PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT AND OPTED TO KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING
WHICH IS WELL COLLOBARATED WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH OVER
THE CWA SAT NGT EXTENDING NORTH TO QUEBEC. COLDEST NIGHT COMING UP
WITH LOWS MOSTLY 25 TO 32. SOME RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
SUNDAY BUT SFC WINDS LIGHT. HIGHS STILL IN THE L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LARGER SEPARATION BETWEEN
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT
/ESPECIALLY FIRST HALF BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE
IN/...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED WARMER TREND OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY...AFTER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM AGREE NOW ON WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TO SWEEP COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE RAIN ITSELF IS A SOLID BET...IT IS JUST A MATTER OF WHICH TIME
OF DAY WILL BE THE MAIN RAINFALL. WENT AHEAD WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...AND AS THE TIME NEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER HEM IN WHICH SPECIFIC HOURS WILL BE INVOLVED. FRONT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH...TO WHICH
WE ANTICIPATE LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN DAMPENING PLANS
FOR GENERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...SO NO LIGHTNING EXPECTED.

RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AND THEN EVENTUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TO UPPER 50S-MID 60S FOR HIGHS...FOLLOWED
BY UPPER 30S-LOW 40S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. GFS-ECMWF RUNS BOTH KEEP
IT AS AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH...BEFORE DIFFERING ON ITS
EVOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES GET SUB-540
DECAMETERS FOR A TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THAT UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH.

DRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CHARGE AT SURFACE...AND RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALSO
MODERATING...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY...BUT NEXT WAVE MAY ALSO BE
APPROACHING BY THEN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF COURSE WILL BE SORTED OUT BETTER IN COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND
EXTENDED FROM ABOUT ONEONTA NY TO TOWANDA PA IN THE WFO BGM
FORECAST AREA. THERE WAS POST FRONTAL BKN-OVC CLOUDS AND JUST A
FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS OTSEGO CO. THESE INSIGNIFICANT
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHRA WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITE ERLY THIS
MORNING.

THE BKN-OVC POST FRONTL CLOUDS WAS MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR...ESPECIALLY AT KSYR...KRME...KITH AND KBGM. AS THE FRONT
WORKS FARTHER SOUTH LL DRYING WILL OCCUR AND SHUD SCATTER OUT THIS
MOISTURE SO EXPECT JUST SCT CLDS BY ARND 8-10Z.

AFTER SUNRISE...COLDER AIR WILL BLOW IN ABV THE SFC LAYER WHICH
WILL BE DECOUPLED AND HENCE THE SFC DRYING WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SCT-BKN CU/SC LAYER TO DEVELOP WITH INSOLATION FROM MID
TO LATE MORNING. I EXPECT MAINLY VFR 3500 TO 5000 FEET CLD BASES.
AS THIS OCCURS...STRGR WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SFC AND THIS CLOUD LAYER SHUD MIX OUT TO MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CLR SKIES WILL REMAIN AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SW TO NW AFTER FROPA AT KAVP AROUND 07Z OR
SO. REST OF TAF SITES WILL HAVE W-NW WINDS MAINLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE A DECENT LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KICK WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE WINDS VEER FROM THE NW TO THE N BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
2 AM SAT UPDATE...

FOR TODAY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE
30S PERCENT IN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT
IN THE REST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. FINE FUELS WERE RUNNING BELOW 10
PERCENT. THIS COMES CLOSE TO OUR RED FLAG CRITERIA IN PA. IN NY
THE CRITERIA IS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE. BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE THE WIND GUSTS IN NE PA AND THAT IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES
AT THIS TIME. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH CTP AND PHI WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO COVER AND DAY SHIFT CAN COORDINATE WITH PA STATE PARTNERS
TO SEE IF RED FLAG IS WARRANTED LATER THIS MORNING.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...DJN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 190759
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
359 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TODAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL
MODERATE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS WEAKENING SPRINKLES ACRS OTSEGO CO AS WK SFC FRNT
SLOWLY SLIPS S AND E ACRS C NY AND NE PA. FRNT EXTENDED ROUGHLY
FROM ONEONTA NY TO ABT TOWANDA PA. THIS FRNT WAS TIED TO AN UPR
LVL WAVE THAT WAS MOVG ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND HENCE DEEPEST LIFT
WAS FARTHER EAST WHERE THERE WAS MORE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BY
12Z...FRNT WILL BE S INTO SRN PA WHERE IT WASHES OUT. INITIALLY
THERE WILL BE A BATCH OF BKN POST FRONTAL CLDS THAT WILL ADVECT
SOUTHWARD INTO NRN PA BY 9Z AND THEN DISSIPATE. SO HAVE VARYING
AMNTS OF CLD CVR FOR THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER SUNRISE...STRGR COLD AIR ADVECTION ABV THE SFC LAYER LEADS
TO COLD ENUF TEMPERATURES AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SUPPORT SCT-
BKN SC/CU FORMING WITH INSOLATION AND THE DIURNAL GROWTH OF THE
BNDRY LAYER FOR MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
FOR THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA. MESOSCALE MODELS ALL
SHOW A BAND OF VERY HIGH RH AT 925 MB ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
REACHING C NY/NRN PA ARND 12Z. AFTER 15Z THE MODELS MIX OUT THIS
MOISTURE. THE EURO/GFS...OUR LOCAL 4KM WRF...WRFARW AND HRRR EVEN
GO AS FAR AS SPITTING OUT A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP SUGGESTING SOME
SPRINKLES. FOR NOW I JUST INCREASED THE CLD CVR FOR MID TO LATE
MORNING AND THEN MIX IT OUT BY AFTERNOON. WILL REASSESS WHETHER
SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE WARRANTED FOR LATER THIS MORNING WITH NEXT
UPDATE. ITS PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT AND OPTED TO KEEP CURRENT
FORECAST GOING WHICH IS WELL COLLOBARATED WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH OVER
THE CWA SAT NGT EXTENDING NORTH TO QUEBEC. COLDEST NIGHT COMING UP
WITH LOWS MOSTLY 25 TO 32. SOME RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
SUNDAY BUT SFC WINDS LIGHT. HIGHS STILL IN THE L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LARGER SEPARATION BETWEEN
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT
/ESPECIALLY FIRST HALF BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE
IN/...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED WARMER TREND OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY...AFTER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM AGREE NOW ON WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TO SWEEP COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE RAIN ITSELF IS A SOLID BET...IT IS JUST A MATTER OF WHICH TIME
OF DAY WILL BE THE MAIN RAINFALL. WENT AHEAD WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...AND AS THE TIME NEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER HEM IN WHICH SPECIFIC HOURS WILL BE INVOLVED. FRONT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH...TO WHICH
WE ANTICIPATE LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN DAMPENING PLANS
FOR GENERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...SO NO LIGHTNING EXPECTED.

RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AND THEN EVENTUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TO UPPER 50S-MID 60S FOR HIGHS...FOLLOWED
BY UPPER 30S-LOW 40S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. GFS-ECMWF RUNS BOTH KEEP
IT AS AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH...BEFORE DIFFERING ON ITS
EVOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES GET SUB-540
DECAMETERS FOR A TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THAT UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH.

DRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CHARGE AT SURFACE...AND RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALSO
MODERATING...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY...BUT NEXT WAVE MAY ALSO BE
APPROACHING BY THEN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF COURSE WILL BE SORTED OUT BETTER IN COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND
EXTENDED FROM ABOUT ONEONTA NY TO TOWANDA PA IN THE WFO BGM
FORECAST AREA. THERE WAS POST FRONTAL BKN-OVC CLOUDS AND JUST A
FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS OTSEGO CO. THESE INSIGNIFICANT
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHRA WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITE ERLY THIS
MORNING.

THE BKN-OVC POST FRONTL CLOUDS WAS MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR...ESPECIALLY AT KSYR...KRME...KITH AND KBGM. AS THE FRONT
WORKS FARTHER SOUTH LL DRYING WILL OCCUR AND SHUD SCATTER OUT THIS
MOISTURE SO EXPECT JUST SCT CLDS BY ARND 8-10Z.

AFTER SUNRISE...COLDER AIR WILL BLOW IN ABV THE SFC LAYER WHICH
WILL BE DECOUPLED AND HENCE THE SFC DRYING WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SCT-BKN CU/SC LAYER TO DEVELOP WITH INSOLATION FROM MID
TO LATE MORNING. I EXPECT MAINLY VFR 3500 TO 5000 FEET CLD BASES.
AS THIS OCCURS...STRGR WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SFC AND THIS CLOUD LAYER SHUD MIX OUT TO MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CLR SKIES WILL REMAIN AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SW TO NW AFTER FROPA AT KAVP AROUND 07Z OR
SO. REST OF TAF SITES WILL HAVE W-NW WINDS MAINLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE A DECENT LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KICK WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE WINDS VEER FROM THE NW TO THE N BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
2 PM FRI UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN NY. NONE IN NE PA.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...RH FALLING INTO THE 30S BUT WINDS ONLY 5 TO 15
MPH. SATURDAY INCREASING WINDS AND SUNSHINE. ERN AREAS COULD HAVE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. RH FALLING TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AND SEE IF THE 10 HOUR FUELS DRY ENOUGH.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN/TAC
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 190621
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TONIGHT TO CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN
SATURDAY, LASTING INTO MONDAY. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE
60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR SHOWS WEAKENING SPRINKLES ACRS OTSEGO CO AS WK SFC FRNT
SLOWLY SLIPS S AND E ACRS C NY AND NE PA. FRNT EXTENDED ROUGHLY
FROM ONEONTA NY TO ABT TOWANDA PA. THIS FRNT WAS TIED TO AN UPR
LVL WAVE THAT WAS MOVG ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND HENCE DEEPEST LIFT
WAS FARTHER EAST WHERE THERE WAS MORE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BY
12Z...FRNT WILL BE S INTO SRN PA WHERE IT WASHES OUT. INITIALLY
THERE WILL BE A BATCH OF BKN POST FRONTAL CLDS THAT WILL ADVECT
SOUTHWARD INTO NRN PA BY 9Z AND THEN DISSIPATE. SO HAVE VARYING
AMNTS OF CLD CVR FOR THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER SUNRISE...STRGR COLD AIR ADVECTION ABV THE SFC LAYER LEADS
TO COLD ENUF TEMPERATURES AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SUPPORT SCT-
BKN SC/CU FORMING WITH INSOLATION AND THE DIURNAL GROWTH OF THE
BNDRY LAYER FOR MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
FOR THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA. MESOSCALE MODELS ALL
SHOW A BAND OF VERY HIGH RH AT 925 MB ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
REACHING C NY/NRN PA ARND 12Z. AFTER 15Z THE MODELS MIX OUT THIS
MOISTURE. THE EURO/GFS...OUR LOCAL 4KM WRF...WRFARW AND HRRR EVEN
GO AS FAR AS SPITTING OUT A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP SUGGESTING SOME
SPRINKLES. FOR NOW I JUST INCREASED THE CLD CVR FOR MID TO LATE
MORNING AND THEN MIX IT OUT BY AFTERNOON. WILL REASSESS WHETHER
SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE WARRANTED FOR LATER THIS MORNING WITH NEXT
UPDATE. ITS PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT AND OPTED TO KEEP CURRENT
FORECAST GOING WHICH IS WELL COLLOBARATED WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA SAT NGT EXTENDING NORTH TO
QUEBEC. COLDEST NIGHT COMING UP WITH LOWS MOSTLY 25 TO 32. SOME
RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY BUT SFC WINDS LIGHT.
HIGHS STILL IN THE L60S.

INITIAL SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA LAYING DOWN A FRONT
IN SE CANADA. PRECIP WILL BE STAY IN CANADA WITH A UPPER LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW.

FOR RAIN WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE DIGS A TROF INTO THE UPPER LAKES. LOWERED POPS TO NOTHING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ONLY SCHC POPS FAR NW MON AFTN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY FOR MON NGT AND HV PULLED POPS
DOWN TO SLGT CHC CWA-WIDE WITH LKLY POPS FOR TUE AS FNT COMES
THRU. LINGERING PCPN EXPECTED TUE NGT AS UL TROF SWINGS THRU. 12Z
GFS INDICATES H5 LOW DVLPNG OVR THE COAST WHILE 00Z EURO KEEPS IT
AS AN OPEN WV. FOR THE TIME BEING HV GONE WITH CHC SHOWERS ON WED
FOR ERN SXNS.

1020MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST ON THUR LEADING TO DRY
WX THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD. HIGH TEMPS FOLLOWING FROPA ON WED
WL DROP TO BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR A DAY AND THEN REBOUND UNDER
S/WV RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND
EXTENDED FROM ABOUT ONEONTA NY TO TOWANDA PA IN THE WFO BGM
FORECAST AREA. THERE WAS POST FRONTAL BKN-OVC CLOUDS AND JUST A
FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS OTSEGO CO. THESE INSIGNIFICANT
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHRA WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITE ERLY THIS
MORNING.

THE BKN-OVC POST FRONTL CLOUDS WAS MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR...ESPECIALLY AT KSYR...KRME...KITH AND KBGM. AS THE FRONT
WORKS FARTHER SOUTH LL DRYING WILL OCCUR AND SHUD SCATTER OUT THIS
MOISTURE SO EXPECT JUST SCT CLDS BY ARND 8-10Z.

AFTER SUNRISE...COLDER AIR WILL BLOW IN ABV THE SFC LAYER WHICH
WILL BE DECOUPLED AND HENCE THE SFC DRYING WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SCT-BKN CU/SC LAYER TO DEVELOP WITH INSOLATION FROM MID
TO LATE MORNING. I EXPECT MAINLY VFR 3500 TO 5000 FEET CLD BASES.
AS THIS OCCURS...STRGR WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SFC AND THIS CLOUD LAYER SHUD MIX OUT TO MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CLR SKIES WILL REMAIN AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SW TO NW AFTER FROPA AT KAVP AROUND 07Z OR
SO. REST OF TAF SITES WILL HAVE W-NW WINDS MAINLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE A DECENT LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KICK WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE WINDS VEER FROM THE NW TO THE N BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
2 PM FRI UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN NY. NONE IN NE PA.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...RH FALLING INTO THE 30S BUT WINDS ONLY 5 TO 15
MPH. SATURDAY INCREASING WINDS AND SUNSHINE. ERN AREAS COULD HAVE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. RH FALLING TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AND SEE IF THE 10 HOUR FUELS DRY ENOUGH.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 190239
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1039 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TONIGHT TO CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN
SATURDAY, LASTING INTO MONDAY. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE
60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...WEAK SFC COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM THE SYR AREA
ACROSS ITH INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. RADAR/SFC OBS STILL
INDICATE JUST SOME SPRINKLES/BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER ALONG FEATURE
WITH BETTER RETURNS OVER THE NRN CWA. CURRENT POPS OF SLIGHT
CHC/CHC LOOKS REASONABLE ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH ACTIVITY
CONTINUING TO SHIFT EAST OF I81 AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN ENDING SHORTLY
AFTER.

640 PM UPDATE...SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO ACROSS ROC TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LOCAL RADARS SHOW
WEAK RETURNS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE LAKE PLAIN BUT DUE TO
20-30 DEGREES DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ONLY SPRINKLES ARE BEING
REPORTED AT THE SFC. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH CHC/SLIGHT
CHC POPS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NRN FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH LATE EVENING.

2 PM UPDATE...

A WEAK FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO WRN NY ATTM. A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND IT IN SE ONTARIO. WITH THE DRY AIR STILL AT
THE SURFACE EXPECTING VERY LITTLE TO FALL THIS EVE. PRECIP SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE FINGER LAKES AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MOSTLY SCHC POPS NRN TIER OF
NE PA NORTH.

BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO SET
OFF THE LAKE EFFECT WITH 850MB TEMPS AT -4C. WITH NW FLOW SHOULD
ONLY KEEP THE CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING.

SAT AFTN WAA ALOFT KICKS IN AND SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR. AT
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DROPPING THE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA SAT NGT EXTENDING NORTH TO
QUEBEC. COLDEST NIGHT COMING UP WITH LOWS MOSTLY 25 TO 32. SOME
RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY BUT SFC WINDS LIGHT.
HIGHS STILL IN THE L60S.

INITIAL SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA LAYING DOWN A FRONT
IN SE CANADA. PRECIP WILL BE STAY IN CANADA WITH A UPPER LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW.

FOR RAIN WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE DIGS A TROF INTO THE UPPER LAKES. LOWERED POPS TO NOTHING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ONLY SCHC POPS FAR NW MON AFTN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY FOR MON NGT AND HV PULLED POPS
DOWN TO SLGT CHC CWA-WIDE WITH LKLY POPS FOR TUE AS FNT COMES
THRU. LINGERING PCPN EXPECTED TUE NGT AS UL TROF SWINGS THRU. 12Z
GFS INDICATES H5 LOW DVLPNG OVR THE COAST WHILE 00Z EURO KEEPS IT
AS AN OPEN WV. FOR THE TIME BEING HV GONE WITH CHC SHOWERS ON WED
FOR ERN SXNS.

1020MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST ON THUR LEADING TO DRY
WX THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD. HIGH TEMPS FOLLOWING FROPA ON WED
WL DROP TO BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR A DAY AND THEN REBOUND UNDER
S/WV RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDS NOW BEGINNING TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES WORKING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ACROSS WESTERN NY HOWEVER
LITTLE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON VERY DRY
LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS. BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...EXPECT LITTLE
MORE THAN A BKN-OVC MID-LEVEL DECK AS FRONT ROLES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SOME CLEARING SHORTLY AFTER PASSAGE. AS WINDS CONTINUE
TO VEER...MODELS DO SHOW INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW OFF ALOFT. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT
HOWEVER...AM INCLINED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MVFR MENTION BASED ON THE
ABRUPT CLEARING TREND NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.

WINDS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
2 PM FRI UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN NY. NONE IN NE PA.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...RH FALLING INTO THE 30S BUT WINDS ONLY 5 TO 15
MPH. SATURDAY INCREASING WINDS AND SUNSHINE. ERN AREAS COULD HAVE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. RH FALLING TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AND SEE IF THE 10 HOUR FUELS DRY ENOUGH.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...CMG
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 182353
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
753 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TONIGHT TO CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN
SATURDAY, LASTING INTO MONDAY. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE
60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO ACROSS ROC TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LOCAL RADARS SHOW
WEAK RETURNS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE LAKE PLAIN BUT DUE TO
20-30 DEGREES DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ONLY SPRINKLES ARE BEING
REPORTED AT THE SFC. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH CHC/SLIGHT
CHC POPS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NRN FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH LATE EVENING.

2 PM UPDATE...

A WEAK FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO WRN NY ATTM. A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND IT IN SE ONTARIO. WITH THE DRY AIR STILL AT
THE SURFACE EXPECTING VERY LITTLE TO FALL THIS EVE. PRECIP SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE FINGER LAKES AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MOSTLY SCHC POPS NRN TIER OF
NE PA NORTH.

BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO SET
OFF THE LAKE EFFECT WITH 850MB TEMPS AT -4C. WITH NW FLOW SHOULD
ONLY KEEP THE CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING.

SAT AFTN WAA ALOFT KICKS IN AND SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR. AT
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DROPPING THE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA SAT NGT EXTENDING NORTH TO
QUEBEC. COLDEST NIGHT COMING UP WITH LOWS MOSTLY 25 TO 32. SOME
RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY BUT SFC WINDS LIGHT.
HIGHS STILL IN THE L60S.

INITIAL SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA LAYING DOWN A FRONT
IN SE CANADA. PRECIP WILL BE STAY IN CANADA WITH A UPPER LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW.

FOR RAIN WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE DIGS A TROF INTO THE UPPER LAKES. LOWERED POPS TO NOTHING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ONLY SCHC POPS FAR NW MON AFTN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY FOR MON NGT AND HV PULLED POPS
DOWN TO SLGT CHC CWA-WIDE WITH LKLY POPS FOR TUE AS FNT COMES
THRU. LINGERING PCPN EXPECTED TUE NGT AS UL TROF SWINGS THRU. 12Z
GFS INDICATES H5 LOW DVLPNG OVR THE COAST WHILE 00Z EURO KEEPS IT
AS AN OPEN WV. FOR THE TIME BEING HV GONE WITH CHC SHOWERS ON WED
FOR ERN SXNS.

1020MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST ON THUR LEADING TO DRY
WX THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD. HIGH TEMPS FOLLOWING FROPA ON WED
WL DROP TO BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR A DAY AND THEN REBOUND UNDER
S/WV RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDS NOW BEGINNING TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES WORKING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ACROSS WESTERN NY HOWEVER
LITTLE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON VERY DRY
LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS. BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...EXPECT LITTLE
MORE THAN A BKN-OVC MID-LEVEL DECK AS FRONT ROLES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SOME CLEARING SHORTLY AFTER PASSAGE. AS WINDS CONTINUE
TO VEER...MODELS DO SHOW INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW OFF ALOFT. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT
HOWEVER...AM INCLINED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MVFR MENTION BASED ON THE
ABRUPT CLEARING TREND NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.

WINDS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
2 PM FRI UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN NY. NONE IN NE PA.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...RH FALLING INTO THE 30S BUT WINDS ONLY 5 TO 15
MPH. SATURDAY INCREASING WINDS AND SUNSHINE. ERN AREAS COULD HAVE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. RH FALLING TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AND SEE IF THE 10 HOUR FUELS DRY ENOUGH.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...CMG
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 182244
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TONIGHT TO CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN
SATURDAY, LASTING INTO MONDAY. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE
60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO ACROSS ROC TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LOCAL RADARS SHOW
WEAK RETURNS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE LAKE PLAIN BUT DUE TO
20-30 DEGREES DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ONLY SPRINKLES ARE BEING
REPORTED AT THE SFC. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH CHC/SLIGHT
CHC POPS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NRN FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH LATE EVENING.

2 PM UPDATE...

A WEAK FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO WRN NY ATTM. A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND IT IN SE ONTARIO. WITH THE DRY AIR STILL AT
THE SURFACE EXPECTING VERY LITTLE TO FALL THIS EVE. PRECIP SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE FINGER LAKES AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MOSTLY SCHC POPS NRN TIER OF
NE PA NORTH.

BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO SET
OFF THE LAKE EFFECT WITH 850MB TEMPS AT -4C. WITH NW FLOW SHOULD
ONLY KEEP THE CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING.

SAT AFTN WAA ALOFT KICKS IN AND SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR. AT
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DROPPING THE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA SAT NGT EXTENDING NORTH TO
QUEBEC. COLDEST NIGHT COMING UP WITH LOWS MOSTLY 25 TO 32. SOME
RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY BUT SFC WINDS LIGHT.
HIGHS STILL IN THE L60S.

INITIAL SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA LAYING DOWN A FRONT
IN SE CANADA. PRECIP WILL BE STAY IN CANADA WITH A UPPER LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW.

FOR RAIN WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE DIGS A TROF INTO THE UPPER LAKES. LOWERED POPS TO NOTHING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ONLY SCHC POPS FAR NW MON AFTN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY FOR MON NGT AND HV PULLED POPS
DOWN TO SLGT CHC CWA-WIDE WITH LKLY POPS FOR TUE AS FNT COMES
THRU. LINGERING PCPN EXPECTED TUE NGT AS UL TROF SWINGS THRU. 12Z
GFS INDICATES H5 LOW DVLPNG OVR THE COAST WHILE 00Z EURO KEEPS IT
AS AN OPEN WV. FOR THE TIME BEING HV GONE WITH CHC SHOWERS ON WED
FOR ERN SXNS.

1020MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST ON THUR LEADING TO DRY
WX THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD. HIGH TEMPS FOLLOWING FROPA ON WED
WL DROP TO BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR A DAY AND THEN REBOUND UNDER
S/WV RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH TAF VALID TIME. MID-HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE BETWEEN 02 AND 07Z AT
KSYR AND KRME. FOLLOWING WEAK FRONT TONIGHT MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
BKN-OVC VFR CIGS ARND 5KFT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 13Z WITH KELM AND KAVP SKC
AFTER THIS TIME.

WINDS AROUND 10KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL BECOME WNW FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
2 PM FRI UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN NY. NONE IN NE PA.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...RH FALLING INTO THE 30S BUT WINDS ONLY 5 TO 15
MPH. SATURDAY INCREASING WINDS AND SUNSHINE. ERN AREAS COULD HAVE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. RH FALLING TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AND SEE IF THE 10 HOUR FUELS DRY ENOUGH.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 181908
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
308 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TONIGHT TO CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN
SATURDAY, LASTING INTO MONDAY. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE
60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

A WEAK FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO WRN NY ATTM. A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND IT IN SE ONTARIO. WITH THE DRY AIR STILL AT
THE SURFACE EXPECTING VERY LITTLE TO FALL THIS EVE. PRECIP SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE FINGER LAKES AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MOSTLY SCHC POPS NRN TIER OF
NE PA NORTH.

BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO SET
OFF THE LAKE EFFECT WITH 850MB TEMPS AT -4C. WITH NW FLOW SHOULD
ONLY KEEP THE CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING.

SAT AFTN WAA ALOFT KICKS IN AND SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR. AT
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DROPPING THE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA SAT NGT EXTENDING NORTH TO
QUEBEC. COLDEST NIGHT COMING UP WITH LOWS MOSTLY 25 TO 32. SOME
RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY BUT SFC WINDS LIGHT.
HIGHS STILL IN THE L60S.

INITIAL SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA LAYING DOWN A FRONT
IN SE CANADA. PRECIP WILL BE STAY IN CANADA WITH A UPPER LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW.

FOR RAIN WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE DIGS A TROF INTO THE UPPER LAKES. LOWERED POPS TO NOTHING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ONLY SCHC POPS FAR NW MON AFTN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY FOR MON NGT AND HV PULLED POPS
DOWN TO SLGT CHC CWA-WIDE WITH LKLY POPS FOR TUE AS FNT COMES
THRU. LINGERING PCPN EXPECTED TUE NGT AS UL TROF SWINGS THRU. 12Z
GFS INDICATES H5 LOW DVLPNG OVR THE COAST WHILE 00Z EURO KEEPS IT
AS AN OPEN WV. FOR THE TIME BEING HV GONE WITH CHC SHOWERS ON WED
FOR ERN SXNS.

1020MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST ON THUR LEADING TO DRY
WX THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD. HIGH TEMPS FOLLOWING FROPA ON WED
WL DROP TO BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR A DAY AND THEN REBOUND UNDER
S/WV RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH TAF VALID TIME. MID-HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE BETWEEN 02 AND 07Z AT
KSYR AND KRME. FOLLOWING WEAK FRONT TONIGHT MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
BKN-OVC VFR CIGS ARND 5KFT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 13Z WITH KELM AND KAVP SKC
AFTER THIS TIME.

WINDS AROUND 10KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL BECOME WNW FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
2 PM FRI UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN NY. NONE IN NE PA.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...RH FALLING INTO THE 30S BUT WINDS ONLY 5 TO 15
MPH. SATURDAY INCREASING WINDS AND SUNSHINE. ERN AREAS COULD HAVE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. RH FALLING TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AND SEE IF THE 10 HOUR FUELS DRY ENOUGH.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 181742
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY...PERHAPS LASTING INTO MONDAY. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

THICK HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CWA HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE RISE
BUT MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD. LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FAR SE FROM
ATLANTIC MOISTURE HAVE SLOWED TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE. AS A WEAK
COLD APPROACHES LATE TODAY THE LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN TEMPS AND
CLOUDS NO CHANGES.

345 AM FRI UPDATE... SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A MARINE LYR CLOUD DECK
SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND FROM NJ/ERN PA ATTM. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD...THESE CLDS WILL ONLY HAVE A LIMITED OPPORTUNITY TO
MAKE MORE INROADS TO THE N AND W EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH AN ERODING
TREND BACK TWDS THE COAST ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNRISE. OTHWS...WE
SHOULD SEE MORNING SUNSHINE FADING BEHIND THICKENING MID AND HIGH-
LVL CLOUD COVER DURG THE AFTN.

A WEAK SFC BNDRY STRETCHED FROM LAKE HURON SWD THROUGH ERN LWR MI
AND NWRN OH AS ABT 08Z. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THIS FEATURE
MOVG EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVE...PUSHED ALG BY A S/WV
SEEN OVER THE UPR MIDWEST ATTM. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
CONVERGENCE ALG THE SFC FRNT...OVERALL DYNAMIC SUPPORT APPEARS
TO BE MEAGER...AND THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IS ALSO LIMITED.
THUS...WE`LL ONLY ADVERTISE THE PSBLTY OF SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA
AFTER ABT 18Z IN OUR FAR NRN/WRN ZNS. ANY ADDTNL LGT PCPN SHOULD
HOLD OFF TIL THIS EVE FARTHER S AND E.

FURTHER 925-850 MB WAA TDY SHOULD HELP PROPEL READINGS CLOSE TO 60
IN OUR LAKE PLAIN AREAS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 AM FRI UPDATE... THE ABV MENTIONED WEAK COLD FRNT IS SLATED TO
COME ACRS THE CWA IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME THIS EVE...GENERALLY
ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY HIT AND MISS SPRINKLES/-SHRA IN CNY...AND LTL
OR NO PCPN IN NE PA.

LOW-LVL CAA LATE TNT AND SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE BLO A DVLPG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD RESULT IN A POST-FRNTL SC DECK IN PTNS
OF CNY...ALG WITH A FEW RESIDUAL SPRINKLES/FLRYS. ONLY PTLY CLDY
CONDS ARE LIKELY FARTHER S THROUGH NE PA.

A LARGE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD ACRS NY/PA FROM CNTRL/SRN ONT OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WX SAT THROUGH SUN. ANY EARLY
MRNG CLDS SAT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE BY
AFTN...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SAT NGT...AND SUNNY CONDS
SUN. HIGHS SAT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN THEY WILL BE
TDY...MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S MOST LOCALES. A RETURN WAA FLOW
DVLPS AGN ON SUN...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH
OF OUR NEXT COLD FRNT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...WE`VE KEPT SUN NGT
DRY...WITH JUST SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE IN OUR NRN/WRN
ZNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY FOR MON NGT AND HV PULLED POPS
DOWN TO SLGT CHC CWA-WIDE WITH LKLY POPS FOR TUE AS FNT COMES
THRU. LINGERING PCPN EXPECTED TUE NGT AS UL TROF SWINGS THRU. 12Z
GFS INDICATES H5 LOW DVLPNG OVR THE COAST WHILE 00Z EURO KEEPS IT
AS AN OPEN WV. FOR THE TIME BEING HV GONE WITH CHC SHOWERS ON WED
FOR ERN SXNS.

1020MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST ON THUR LEADING TO DRY
WX THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD. HIGH TEMPS FOLLOWING FROPA ON WED
WL DROP TO BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR A DAY AND THEN REBOUND UNDER
S/WV RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH TAF VALID TIME. MID-HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE BETWEEN 02 AND 07Z AT
KSYR AND KRME. FOLLOWING WEAK FRONT TONIGHT MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
BKN-OVC VFR CIGS ARND 5KFT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 13Z WITH KELM AND KAVP SKC
AFTER THIS TIME.

WINDS AROUND 10KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL BECOME WNW FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
10 AM FRI UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 25-35%), SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE WILL TODAY
WILL BE UNDER 10 PERCENT.

LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIP TONIGHT MOSTLY IN NY SO 10
HOUR FUELS SHOULD BE BACK BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AGAIN WINDS UNDER 20 MPH SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. ATTM MONDAY WINDS
WILL BE BELOW 20 MPH BUT THIS COULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH. NEXT
CHANCE OF A SOAKING RAIN TUESDAY BUT MODEL TRENDS ARE TO DELAY
THIS.

SO THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY TO MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDS ON ANY
FLAGS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ/TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KBGM 181439
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1039 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY...PERHAPS LASTING INTO MONDAY. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

THICK HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CWA HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE RISE
BUT MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD. LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FAR SE FROM
ATLANTIC MOISTURE HAVE SLOWED TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE. AS A WEAK
COLD APPROACHES LATE TODAY THE LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN TEMPS AND
CLOUDS NO CHANGES.

345 AM FRI UPDATE... SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A MARINE LYR CLOUD DECK
SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND FROM NJ/ERN PA ATTM. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD...THESE CLDS WILL ONLY HAVE A LIMITED OPPORTUNITY TO
MAKE MORE INROADS TO THE N AND W EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH AN ERODING
TREND BACK TWDS THE COAST ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNRISE. OTHWS...WE
SHOULD SEE MORNING SUNSHINE FADING BEHIND THICKENING MID AND HIGH-
LVL CLOUD COVER DURG THE AFTN.

A WEAK SFC BNDRY STRETCHED FROM LAKE HURON SWD THROUGH ERN LWR MI
AND NWRN OH AS ABT 08Z. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THIS FEATURE
MOVG EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVE...PUSHED ALG BY A S/WV
SEEN OVER THE UPR MIDWEST ATTM. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
CONVERGENCE ALG THE SFC FRNT...OVERALL DYNAMIC SUPPORT APPEARS
TO BE MEAGER...AND THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IS ALSO LIMITED.
THUS...WE`LL ONLY ADVERTISE THE PSBLTY OF SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA
AFTER ABT 18Z IN OUR FAR NRN/WRN ZNS. ANY ADDTNL LGT PCPN SHOULD
HOLD OFF TIL THIS EVE FARTHER S AND E.

FURTHER 925-850 MB WAA TDY SHOULD HELP PROPEL READINGS CLOSE TO 60
IN OUR LAKE PLAIN AREAS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM FRI UPDATE... THE ABV MENTIONED WEAK COLD FRNT IS SLATED TO
COME ACRS THE CWA IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME THIS EVE...GENERALLY
ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY HIT AND MISS SPRINKLES/-SHRA IN CNY...AND LTL
OR NO PCPN IN NE PA.

LOW-LVL CAA LATE TNT AND SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE BLO A DVLPG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD RESULT IN A POST-FRNTL SC DECK IN PTNS
OF CNY...ALG WITH A FEW RESIDUAL SPRINKLES/FLRYS. ONLY PTLY CLDY
CONDS ARE LIKELY FARTHER S THROUGH NE PA.

A LARGE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD ACRS NY/PA FROM CNTRL/SRN ONT OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WX SAT THROUGH SUN. ANY EARLY
MRNG CLDS SAT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE BY
AFTN...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SAT NGT...AND SUNNY CONDS
SUN. HIGHS SAT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN THEY WILL BE
TDY...MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S MOST LOCALES. A RETURN WAA FLOW
DVLPS AGN ON SUN...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH
OF OUR NEXT COLD FRNT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...WE`VE KEPT SUN NGT
DRY...WITH JUST SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE IN OUR NRN/WRN
ZNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THU AFTN DISCUSSION... THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE...FAST MOVING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA. 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF SUGGEST SLOWING UP A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO APPROACH
DURING THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME AND HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK INTO THE
MON NITE-TUE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO THEN SETTLE IN FOR
MID-WEEK. THEN...BOTH MODELS HINT AT A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS AT KAVP
NOW IN A MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY BREAK UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SOME
VFR MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0Z AT THE CNY TERMINALS. WE WILL REMAIN DRY
ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS.

SAT NGT TO SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
10 AM FRI UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 25-35%), SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE WILL TODAY
WILL BE UNDER 10 PERCENT.

LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIP TONIGHT MOSTLY IN NY SO 10
HOUR FUELS SHOULD BE BACK BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AGAIN WINDS UNDER 20 MPH SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. ATTM MONDAY WINDS
WILL BE BELOW 20 MPH BUT THIS COULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH. NEXT
CHANCE OF A SOAKING RAIN TUESDAY BUT MODEL TRENDS ARE TO DELAY
THIS.

SO THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY TO MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDS ON ANY
FLAGS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ/TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN
FIRE WEATHER...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 181049
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
649 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TONIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY...PERHAPS LASTING INTO MONDAY. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
345 AM FRI UPDATE... SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A MARINE LYR CLOUD DECK
SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND FROM NJ/ERN PA ATTM. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD...THESE CLDS WILL ONLY HAVE A LIMITED OPPORTUNITY TO
MAKE MORE INROADS TO THE N AND W EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH AN ERODING
TREND BACK TWDS THE COAST ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNRISE. OTHWS...WE
SHOULD SEE MORNING SUNSHINE FADING BEHIND THICKENING MID AND HIGH-
LVL CLOUD COVER DURG THE AFTN.

A WEAK SFC BNDRY STRETCHED FROM LAKE HURON SWD THROUGH ERN LWR MI
AND NWRN OH AS ABT 08Z. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THIS FEATURE
MOVG EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVE...PUSHED ALG BY A S/WV
SEEN OVER THE UPR MIDWEST ATTM. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME CONVERGENCE
ALG THE SFC FRNT...OVERALL DYNAMIC SUPPORT APPEARS TO BE MEAGER...AND
THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IS ALSO LIMITED. THUS...WE`LL ONLY ADVERTISE
THE PSBLTY OF SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA AFTER ABT 18Z IN OUR FAR
NRN/WRN ZNS. ANY ADDTNL LGT PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL THIS EVE
FARTHER S AND E.

FURTHER 925-850 MB WAA TDY SHOULD HELP PROPEL READINGS CLOSE TO 60
IN OUR LAKE PLAIN AREAS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM FRI UPDATE... THE ABV MENTIONED WEAK COLD FRNT IS SLATED TO
COME ACRS THE CWA IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME THIS EVE...GENERALLY
ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY HIT AND MISS SPRINKLES/-SHRA IN CNY...AND LTL
OR NO PCPN IN NE PA.

LOW-LVL CAA LATE TNT AND SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE BLO A DVLPG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD RESULT IN A POST-FRNTL SC DECK IN PTNS
OF CNY...ALG WITH A FEW RESIDUAL SPRINKLES/FLRYS. ONLY PTLY CLDY
CONDS ARE LIKELY FARTHER S THROUGH NE PA.

A LARGE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD ACRS NY/PA FROM CNTRL/SRN ONT OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WX SAT THROUGH SUN. ANY EARLY
MRNG CLDS SAT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE BY
AFTN...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SAT NGT...AND SUNNY CONDS
SUN. HIGHS SAT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN THEY WILL BE
TDY...MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S MOST LOCALES. A RETURN WAA FLOW
DVLPS AGN ON SUN...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH
OF OUR NEXT COLD FRNT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...WE`VE KEPT SUN NGT
DRY...WITH JUST SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE IN OUR NRN/WRN
ZNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THU AFTN DISCUSSION... THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE...FAST MOVING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA. 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF SUGGEST SLOWING UP A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO APPROACH
DURING THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME AND HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK INTO THE
MON NITE-TUE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO THEN SETTLE IN FOR
MID-WEEK. THEN...BOTH MODELS HINT AT A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS AT KAVP
NOW IN A MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY BREAK UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SOME
VFR MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0Z AT THE CNY TERMINALS. WE WILL REMAIN DRY
ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS.

SAT NGT TO SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
3 PM THU UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
TODAY AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 20-35%), SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE WILL DRY TODAY AND
FRIDAY ENOUGH FOR 10 HOUR FUELS TO BE UNDER 10 PERCENT.

SO THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WINDS ON ANY
FLAGS.

SATURDAY AGAIN NOT THAT WINDY AND RH WILL BE HIGHER. SUNDAY WINDS
AGAIN UNDER 20 MPH BUT THE RH WILL BE UNDER 30 PERCENT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 180804
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
404 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TONIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY...PERHAPS LASTING INTO MONDAY. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
345 AM FRI UPDATE... SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A MARINE LYR CLOUD DECK
SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND FROM NJ/ERN PA ATTM. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD...THESE CLDS WILL ONLY HAVE A LIMITED OPPORTUNITY TO
MAKE MORE INROADS TO THE N AND W EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH AN ERODING
TREND BACK TWDS THE COAST ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNRISE. OTHWS...WE
SHOULD SEE MORNING SUNSHINE FADING BEHIND THICKENING MID AND HIGH-
LVL CLOUD COVER DURG THE AFTN.

A WEAK SFC BNDRY STRETCHED FROM LAKE HURON SWD THROUGH ERN LWR MI
AND NWRN OH AS ABT 08Z. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THIS FEATURE
MOVG EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVE...PUSHED ALG BY A S/WV
SEEN OVER THE UPR MIDWEST ATTM. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME CONVERGENCE
ALG THE SFC FRNT...OVERALL DYNAMIC SUPPORT APPEARS TO BE MEAGER...AND
THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IS ALSO LIMITED. THUS...WE`LL ONLY ADVERTISE
THE PSBLTY OF SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA AFTER ABT 18Z IN OUR FAR
NRN/WRN ZNS. ANY ADDTNL LGT PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL THIS EVE
FARTHER S AND E.

FURTHER 925-850 MB WAA TDY SHOULD HELP PROPEL READINGS CLOSE TO 60
IN OUR LAKE PLAIN AREAS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM FRI UPDATE... THE ABV MENTIONED WEAK COLD FRNT IS SLATED TO
COME ACRS THE CWA IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME THIS EVE...GENERALLY
ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY HIT AND MISS SPRINKLES/-SHRA IN CNY...AND LTL
OR NO PCPN IN NE PA.

LOW-LVL CAA LATE TNT AND SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE BLO A DVLPG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD RESULT IN A POST-FRNTL SC DECK IN PTNS
OF CNY...ALG WITH A FEW RESIDUAL SPRINKLES/FLRYS. ONLY PTLY CLDY
CONDS ARE LIKELY FARTHER S THROUGH NE PA.

A LARGE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD ACRS NY/PA FROM CNTRL/SRN ONT OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WX SAT THROUGH SUN. ANY EARLY
MRNG CLDS SAT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE BY
AFTN...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SAT NGT...AND SUNNY CONDS
SUN. HIGHS SAT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN THEY WILL BE
TDY...MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S MOST LOCALES. A RETURN WAA FLOW
DVLPS AGN ON SUN...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH
OF OUR NEXT COLD FRNT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...WE`VE KEPT SUN NGT
DRY...WITH JUST SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE IN OUR NRN/WRN
ZNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THU AFTN DISCUSSION... THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE...FAST MOVING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA. 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF SUGGEST SLOWING UP A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO APPROACH
DURING THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME AND HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK INTO THE
MON NITE-TUE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO THEN SETTLE IN FOR
MID-WEEK. THEN...BOTH MODELS HINT AT A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH VFR EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE FROM A S-SELY DIRECTION AT 5-10
KTS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 5 TO 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE LAYER OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
KAVP...BUT THIS BEARS MONITORING. IFR CIGS ARE AS CLOSE BY AS
KMPO. SOME VFR MID- LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
TONIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0Z AT THE CNY TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS.

SAT NGT TO SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
3 PM THU UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
TODAY AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 20-35%), SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE WILL DRY TODAY AND
FRIDAY ENOUGH FOR 10 HOUR FUELS TO BE UNDER 10 PERCENT.

SO THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WINDS ON ANY
FLAGS.

SATURDAY AGAIN NOT THAT WINDY AND RH WILL BE HIGHER. SUNDAY WINDS
AGAIN UNDER 20 MPH BUT THE RH WILL BE UNDER 30 PERCENT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN/MSE
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 180554
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
154 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT SUNSHINE, WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND DRY
WEATHER THAT WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY, MOSTLY IN NEW
YORK. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED AT 10 PM... CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING NEARLY AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT... BUT
LOWS SHOULD STILL DROP TO AROUND FREEZING AT MANY LOCATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

2 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND KEEPING DRY WEATHER OVER THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH CLOUDS BUT THIS WILL NOT AFFECT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING AGAIN INTO THE 20S IN THE DRY AIR. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING NE FROM MI TO QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA FRI EVE. THIS IS FASTER THAN MODELS HAD FIRST
SUGGESTED. THE MOISTURE HAS MUCH DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. SHOWERS HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NRN CWA AND PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE AVP.
SHOWERS MAY COME IN FRI AFTN AND NOT PULL OUT UNTIL EARLY SAT
MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN RIGHT WITH THE FRONT THOUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH ANYWHERE.

COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP MAXES DOWN SATURDAY. 850MB
TEMPS DO NOT GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT AND WAA STARTS AGAIN
SAT AFTN.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTH INTO CANADA WILL BE OVER
THE AREA SAT NGT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS
AGAIN.

SUNDAY BACK TO DEEP SW FLOW SO TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE 60S.
NEXT SYSTEM SLOWER SO DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND
MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A RATHER LOW
AMPLITUDE...FAST MOVING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR
SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SUGGEST SLOWING
UP A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO APPROACH DURING THE SUN-MON TIME
FRAME AND HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK INTO THE MON NITE-TUE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO THEN SETTLE IN FOR MID-WEEK. THEN...BOTH
MODELS HINT AT A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
LATER IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH VFR EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE FROM A S-SELY DIRECTION AT 5-10
KTS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 5 TO 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE LAYER OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
KAVP...BUT THIS BEARS MONITORING. IFR CIGS ARE AS CLOSE BY AS
KMPO. SOME VFR MID- LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
TONIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0Z AT THE CNY TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS.

SAT NGT TO SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
3 PM THU UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
TODAY AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 20-35%), SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE WILL DRY TODAY AND
FRIDAY ENOUGH FOR 10 HOUR FUELS TO BE UNDER 10 PERCENT.

SO THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WINDS ON ANY
FLAGS.

SATURDAY AGAIN NOT THAT WINDY AND RH WILL BE HIGHER. SUNDAY WINDS
AGAIN UNDER 20 MPH BUT THE RH WILL BE UNDER 30 PERCENT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN/MSE
FIRE WEATHER...








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