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000
FXUS61 KBGM 251037
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
637 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A summer like weather pattern will take hold, with warmer
temperatures, and gradually increasing humidity, over the next
several days. Outside of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm,
today looks rain free. Scattered afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms, can be expected both Thursday and Friday, although
again, most of the time should be rain free.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
430 am update...
Mostly clear skies prevail early this morning, with readings
having dipped into the 40s in many spots, as we approach
daybreak. This will lead into a sunny start to the day, with
temperatures rising quickly later this morning.

A short-wave is evident on satellite imagery at this time,
extending from central Ontario into the upper Midwest. This
feature is progged to track southeastward today, reaching
southeastern Ontario and upstate NY this afternoon. In tandem with
this disturbance, a weak surface boundary will also approach
upstate NY by early evening. Although forced lift with either of
these systems looks fairly weak, owing in part to meager upper jet
support, their approach will coincide with peak heating and some
instability (expected ML Cape maxima of 500-750 j/kg). Thus, we`ll
continue to call for isolated-scattered showers/thunderstorms this
afternoon into the early evening, mostly for our northern zones.
NY`s southern tier and Northeast PA should end up largely rain-
free.

Highs this afternoon should range from the upper 70s-mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
445 am update...
Any residual early evening convection should fade quickly, with
clear-partly cloudy skies overnight.

A typical summer-like regime will set up Thursday-Friday, with
building upper-level heights along the eastern seaboard. At the
surface, a weak frontal boundary/convergence zone will remain in
the vicinity, and thus become the focus for diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms. Owing to lack of upper-level synoptic
support/warm temperatures aloft on Thursday, afternoon showers and
storms should remain isolated/scattered in nature, primarily
affecting Central NY, with relatively little impact for Northeast
PA.

Friday, with higher progged surface dew points (into the 60s),
the air mass will become more unstable (ML Capes of 1000-2000
j/kg), and thus scattered thunderstorms will be possible area-
wide. However, wind fields look weak all the way up through the
mid-levels (generally 20-25 kt or less), so severe storms seem
unlikely.

Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the 80s, with overnight lows
in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upr rdg remains in place thru the long term but back door fnt now
threatens the holiday. Aftn conv psbl Sat but by late
Sun...backdoor fnt starts to drop wwrd into wrn NY dvlpg conv
along the bdry. EURO and GFS both cont the wwrd mvmt into the
Holiday and wld bring cooler air...esp on Mon with an ely flow.
Cool air begins to withdraw by Tue and allows temps to rcvr a bit.
With uncertainty, went with gnrl chance pops thru the pd for conv
and the passage of the fnt. Dropped temps a few degrees with the
arrival of the cooler air.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. A weak front will sink southward into northern NY this afternoon
which may generate a shower or two near KSYR/KITH/KBGM but confidence
is to low attm to place in tafs. Restrictions if they occur would
be brief. Clouds clear early this evening.

Winds increase late morning to around 10 knots from the west with
gusts up to 20 knots especially KSYR and KRME with wind funneling
down the Mohawk Valley.

OUTLOOK...

Thu thru Sun...Gnrl VFR conds thru the pd. Aftn tstms psbl any day with
brief restrictions but best chance will be Sat and Sun.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...Heden





000
FXUS61 KBGM 250853
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
453 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A summer like weather pattern will take hold, with warmer
temperatures, and gradually increasing humidity, over the next
several days. Outside of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm,
today looks rain free. Scattered afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms, can be expected both Thursday and Friday, although
again, most of the time should be rain free.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
430 am update...
Mostly clear skies prevail early this morning, with readings
having dipped into the 40s in many spots, as we approach
daybreak. This will lead into a sunny start to the day, with
temperatures rising quickly later this morning.

A short-wave is evident on satellite imagery at this time,
extending from central Ontario into the upper Midwest. This
feature is progged to track southeastward today, reaching
southeastern Ontario and upstate NY this afternoon. In tandem with
this disturbance, a weak surface boundary will also approach
upstate NY by early evening. Although forced lift with either of
these systems looks fairly weak, owing in part to meager upper jet
support, their approach will coincide with peak heating and some
instability (expected ML Cape maxima of 500-750 j/kg). Thus, we`ll
continue to call for isolated-scattered showers/thunderstorms this
afternoon into the early evening, mostly for our northern zones.
NY`s southern tier and Northeast PA should end up largely rain-
free.

Highs this afternoon should range from the upper 70s-mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
445 am update...
Any residual early evening convection should fade quickly, with
clear-partly cloudy skies overnight.

A typical summer-like regime will set up Thursday-Friday, with
building upper-level heights along the eastern seaboard. At the
surface, a weak frontal boundary/convergence zone will remain in
the vicinity, and thus become the focus for diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms. Owing to lack of upper-level synoptic
support/warm temperatures aloft on Thursday, afternoon showers and
storms should remain isolated/scattered in nature, primarily
affecting Central NY, with relatively little impact for Northeast
PA.

Friday, with higher progged surface dew points (into the 60s),
the air mass will become more unstable (ML Capes of 1000-2000
j/kg), and thus scattered thunderstorms will be possible area-
wide. However, wind fields look weak all the way up through the
mid-levels (generally 20-25 kt or less), so severe storms seem
unlikely.

Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the 80s, with overnight lows
in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upr rdg remains in place thru the long term but back door fnt now
threatens the holiday. Aftn conv psbl Sat but by late
Sun...backdoor fnt starts to drop wwrd into wrn NY dvlpg conv
along the bdry. EURO and GFS both cont the wwrd mvmt into the
Holiday and wld bring cooler air...esp on Mon with an ely flow.
Cool air begins to withdraw by Tue and allows temps to rcvr a bit.
With uncertainty, went with gnrl chance pops thru the pd for conv
and the passage of the fnt. Dropped temps a few degrees with the
arrival of the cooler air.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. A weak front will sink southward into northern NY this afternoon
which may generate a shower or two near KSYR/KITH/KBGM but confidence
is to low attm to place in tafs. Restrictions if they occur would
be brief. Clouds clear early this evening.

Winds will be light and variable through sunrise, then increase to
around 10 knots from the west with gusts up to 20 knots especially
KSYR and KRME with wind funneling down the Mohawk Valley.

OUTLOOK...

Thu thru Sun...Gnrl VFR conds thru the pd. Aftn tstms psbl any day with
brief restrictions but best chance will be Sat and Sun.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...Heden





000
FXUS61 KBGM 250006
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
806 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer like weather will be with us all week, with daytime highs
in the upper seventies and eighties. Wednesday afternoon showers
and thunderstorms are possible in central New York. Thursday to
Saturday scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
620 pm update...

Still some showers over eastern NY at this hour but don`t expect
this to affect our eastern counties so removed any mention of
showers for this evening. Expect cloud cover currently over
eastern portions of the CWA to diminish and move east through the
evening. Only other change was to adjust dew points down for
tonight based on latest observations and trends.


3 pm update...

Showers have moved out of the cwa. Removed thunder chances with
the instability in the Hudson Valley. Temperatures for much of the
area has risen to around 80. For this reason went close to or
above guidance next 3 days. High temp guidance has had a cold
bias.

Tonight skies will quickly clear as the cumulus field loses
daytime heating and the deeper moisture to the se slowly edges
east. Went close to guidance but valleys could be colder with calm
winds and clear skies. lows mostly in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Wednesday some showers and maybe a thunderstorm across the north
in the afternoon. A weak front and short wave drop se on the east
side of the broad upper level ridge. Nothing too exciting with
weak shear and instability. Temperatures a little warmer into the
upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 pm update...

Thursday showers move in from the sw ahead of weak warm front. At
upper levels a short wave and building heights. This lift
combined with better moisture and diurnal heating will cause some
afternoon thunderstorms again. Showers will continue through
Thursday night into Friday.

With very warm humid air at the surface cape exceed 1k on the GFS
and of course much higher on the NAM. Shear is weak to moderate
but forcing is hard to find. The warm front could still be in the
east with weak convergence. Friday afternoon highs in the 80s and
dewpoints in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upr rdg remains in place thru the long term but back door fnt now
threatens the holiday. Aftn conv psbl Sat but by late
Sun...backdoor fnt starts to drop wwrd into wrn NY dvlpg conv
along the bdry. EURO and GFS both cont the wwrd mvmt into the
Holiday and wld bring cooler air...esp on Mon with an ely flow.
Cool air begins to withdraw by Tue and allows temps to rcvr a bit.
With uncertainty, went with gnrl chance pops thru the pd for conv
and the passage of the fnt. Dropped temps a few degrees with the
arrival of the cooler air.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. Ceilings are expected to dissipate overnight and a diurnal
cu field will develop over central ny Wed afternoon. A weak front
will sink southward into northern NY Wed afternoon which may
generate a shower or two over north/central NY but confidence is
to low attm to place in tafs.

Winds will be light and variable through sunrise, then increase to
around 10 knots from the west with gusts up to 25 knots.

OUTLOOK...

Thu thru Sun...Gnrl VFR conds thru the pd. Aftn tstms psbl any day with
brief restrictions but best chance will be Sat and Sun.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...PCF/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM/KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 241808
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
208 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance, will bring isolated showers and
thunderstorms again today, over the Catskills and Poconos. Most
areas, though, will be dry. More summer like weather will be with
us Wednesday and Thursday, with daytime highs in the upper
seventies and eighties. Although most of the time will be rain
free, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms are anticipated late
each afternoon, particularly on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 am update...

Minor changes mostly to sky and temperatures. A few sprinkles
over the far east out of a mid deck. This area will expand a
little west and expand in coverage. Maybe a thunderstorm again.
Fairly well handled in the grids with no change to that.

Upped cloud amount east of interstate 81. Upped max temps in the
west closer to guidance. In the west mostly sunny skies.

310 am update...
Regional radar loops are showing an area of light showers rotating
westward from the Lower Hudson Valley and northern NJ early this
morning, around the pesky cutoff low off the mid-Atlantic coast.
Our latest high-resolution model guidance remains in good
agreement that these showers will generally weaken with westward
extent, with only isolated-scattered coverage, at best,
anticipated over our Pocono and Catskill zones today. This seems
quite reasonable, as most of our available guidance indicates that
the above mentioned upper low will open up and drift northeastward
today, farther offshore.

For the majority of the area (from about the I-81 corridor
westward), today will feature partly-mostly sunny skies, and
rain-free conditions.

Highs this afternoon will range in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 am update...
The cutoff low referenced above, will continue to fill and drift
northeastward over the Atlantic Wed.-Thu., no longer a controlling
feature for our weather. A flat upper ridge axis will then take
over, along with the onset of a warmer, more humid summer-like
air mass. Highs Wed. and Thu. will range from the upper 70s-mid
80s each afternoon, along with slowly increasing surface dew
points (up into the low-mid 60s by Thu.).

As far as convective potential goes, we anticipate isolated
showers and storms late in the day Wed., mainly over our northern
and eastern zones, associated with a short-wave passage, and the
approach of a weak surface boundary. Much of NY`s southern tier,
as well as Northeast PA, may well end up rain-free Wed.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may impact a larger portion of
the forecast area by later Thu., as the just mentioned weak
surface front remains in the vicinity, another short-wave impulse
goes through, and higher dew points bring ML Cape values locally
to near 1000 j/kg.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Upr rdg remains in place thru the long term but back door fnt now
threatens the holiday. Aftn conv psbl Sat but by late
Sun...backdoor fnt starts to drop wwrd into wrn NY dvlpg conv
along the bdry. EURO and GFS both cont the wwrd mvmt into the
Holiday and wld bring cooler air...esp on Mon with an ely flow.
Cool air begins to withdraw by Tue and allows temps to rcvr a bit.
With uncertainty, went with gnrl chance pops thru the pd for conv
and the passage of the fnt. Dropped temps a few degrees with the
arrival of the cooler air.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Old upr low conts to spin off the NJ cst this aftn and will mve
only slowly to near BOX late tmrw. This will keep a nly flow of
cool but very dry air over the taf sites...contg the VFR conds. LL
will decpl tngt but dry air and strong winds just abv the bndry
lyr will keep fog from frmg at ELM.

OUTLOOK...

Thu thru Sun...Gnrl VFR conds thru the pd. Aftn tstms psbl anyday
with brief restrictions but best chance will be Sat and Sun.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ/TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 240728
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
328 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance, will bring isolated showers and
thunderstorms again today, over the Catskills and Poconos. Most
areas, though, will be dry. More summer like weather will be with
us Wednesday and Thursday, with daytime highs in the upper
seventies and eighties. Although most of the time will be rain
free, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms are anticipated late
each afternoon, particularly on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
310 am update...
Regional radar loops are showing an area of light showers rotating
westward from the Lower Hudson Valley and northern NJ early this
morning, around the pesky cutoff low off the mid-Atlantic coast.
Our latest high-resolution model guidance remains in good
agreement that these showers will generally weaken with westward
extent, with only isolated-scattered coverage, at best,
anticipated over our Pocono and Catskill zones today. This seems
quite reasonable, as most of our available guidance indicates that
the above mentioned upper low will open up and drift northeastward
today, farther offshore.

For the majority of the area (from about the I-81 corridor
westward), today will feature partly-mostly sunny skies, and
rain-free conditions.

Highs this afternoon will range in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 am update...
The cutoff low referenced above, will continue to fill and drift
northeastward over the Atlantic Wed.-Thu., no longer a controlling
feature for our weather. A flat upper ridge axis will then take
over, along with the onset of a warmer, more humid summer-like
air mass. Highs Wed. and Thu. will range from the upper 70s-mid
80s each afternoon, along with slowly increasing surface dew
points (up into the low-mid 60s by Thu.).

As far as convective potential goes, we anticipate isolated
showers and storms late in the day Wed., mainly over our northern
and eastern zones, associated with a short-wave passage, and the
approach of a weak surface boundary. Much of NY`s southern tier,
as well as Northeast PA, may well end up rain-free Wed.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may impact a larger portion of
the forecast area by later Thu., as the just mentioned weak
surface front remains in the vicinity, another short-wave impulse
goes through, and higher dew points bring ML Cape values locally
to near 1000 j/kg.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Holiday weekend begins with rdgg off the east cst and "ring of
fire" convection along the west side of the ridge, up the MS vly
to the ern Great Lakes. Bndry close enuf to the fcst area to keep
chance pops in for Fri, but then the rdg blds limiting the chance
on Sat and even Sun. By Mon, nrn part of the rdg brks down a bit
as a sw passes by to the north so their may be an incrs in the
chance for trws. Hwvr...predicting conv this far out is a tricky
thing and really the chance for aftn conv cannot be ruled out any
day in the pd.

Temps will fnly be abv nrml with daytime highs pushing into the
80s esp in the vlys and wrm ngts with a sw flow of air from the
srn U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through the end of the TAF period. High clouds backing in from
the east and a stiff breeze off the surface will prevent fog
formation early this morning. High clouds will be thickest at KAVP
through late morning, with just a few clouds elsewhere.

Winds will be light and variable through the sunrise, then
increase to around 5 to 11 knots from the northwest this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...

Wed thru Sat...Mostly VFR. Afternoon thunderstorms are possible
each day with brief restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...Heden





000
FXUS61 KBGM 240549
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
149 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level system will produce scattered showers and isolated
thunder roughly along and east of the Catskills to Poconos
through Tuesday, with dry conditions elsewhere. A warmer, more
summerlike weather pattern will set up for midweek and beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...
All that is left of the earlier convective activity, which itself
was widely scattered mainly east of I-81, is a couple tiny showers
in Delaware County NY, down through Wayne-Lackawanna-Eastern
Luzerne Counties PA. Loss of diurnal heating will continue to let
this stuff fall apart. Overnight, I delayed the reintroduction of
rain chances in our eastern zones by several hours. Most of it waits
for the day on Tuesday. Also added patchy fog mention in Wyoming
Valley area early Tuesday morning due to moisture rainfall there
each of the last couple afternoons. There is already only a 4
degree Temp-Dewpoint spread at KAVP. Further northwest, fog is
more doubtful because of drier air and higher boundary layer
winds.

Previous discussion...
As of mid afternoon, an axis of instability currently exists over
NE PA extending into central NY and as a result some showers have
developed on radar over NE PA with a CU field extending across
much of central NY. Broadening out on the synoptic scale, upper
level low still parked over the mid Atlantic coast with the
forecast area in a deep NE flow. Expect scattered showers and
storms to continue this afternoon over NE PA with the chance of
showers extending as far N/W as Broome to Otsego Counties where
any showers should be more isolated in nature.

For tonight, showers and any storms initially diminish this
evening. However as the upper level low to the south pushes NE
additional showers associated with this feature will develop and
move up the coast later this evening into the overnight. South and
east portions of the CWA will be near the back edge of these
showers with some differences in the models regarding how far west
these showers extend. The GEM/ECMWF keep showers to our east while
GFS/NAM bring showers farther west into the CWA. Utilized a model
blend which brings chance POPs back mainly into Pike/Sullivan
Counties overnight. Farther north and west expect mainly dry
conditions overnight with mainly clear to partly cloudy skies. A
stronger wind field just off the surface should limit fog
potential so this has not been included in forecast. Lows will be
mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper level low continues to push NE through Tuesday moving
into southern New England. This will continue to put eastern
portions of the CWA under the chance of some scattered showers.
However we did shave back the western edge of these chance POPs
and so keep the I-81 corridor and points west dry for Tuesday
where skies should be partly to mostly sunny. Highs will generally
range from the low 70s east where there will be more cloud cover to
the upper 70s west. Also, the best instability looks to be east of
the area but we did include the slight chance of thunderstorms for
eastern Pike and Sullivan Counties.

Large scale upper level ridging will build into NY/PA Tuesday
night into Wednesday as a surface cold front drops into Ontario.
Temperatures will push to around 80 degrees in most locations
Wednesday afternoon with the potential for showers and
thunderstorms in advance of the front, mainly over central NY.

For Wednesday night, any showers diminish in the evening with the
overnight being mainly dry and milder with lows in the 50s. For
Thursday, a warm front will push across the region from the SW and
this combined with daytime instability will bring more widespread
showers and storms to the area, especially by the afternoon. Highs
will be once again in the upper 70s to low 80s with dew points
rising into the low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Holiday weekend begins with rdgg off the east cst and "ring of
fire" convection along the west side of the ridge, up the MS vly
to the ern Great Lakes. Bndry close enuf to the fcst area to keep
chance pops in for Fri, but then the rdg blds limiting the chance
on Sat and even Sun. By Mon, nrn part of the rdg brks down a bit
as a sw passes by to the north so their may be an incrs in the
chance for trws. Hwvr...predicting conv this far out is a tricky
thing and really the chance for aftn conv cannot be ruled out any
day in the pd.

Temps will fnly be abv nrml with daytime highs pushing into the
80s esp in the vlys and wrm ngts with a sw flow of air from the
srn U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through the end of the TAF period. High clouds backing in from
the east and a stiff breeze off the surface will prevent fog
formation early this morning. High clouds will be thickest at KAVP
through late morning, with just a few clouds elsewhere.

Winds will be light and variable through the sunrise, then
increase to around 5 to 11 knots from the northwest this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...

Wed thru Sat...Mostly VFR. Afternoon thunderstorms are possible
each day with brief restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/PCF
NEAR TERM...MDP/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...Heden





000
FXUS61 KBGM 232349
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
749 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper atmospheric storm system will keep a few showers or
thunderstorms over eastern parts of the forecast area through
Tuesday. A warmer, more summer-like weather pattern will set up
for midweek and beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of mid afternoon, an axis of instability currently exists over
NE PA extending into central NY and as a result some showers have
developed on radar over NE PA with a CU field extending across
much of central NY. Broadening out on the synoptic scale, upper
level low still parked over the mid Atlantic coast with the
forecast area in a deep NE flow. Expect scattered showers and
storms to continue this afternoon over NE PA with the chance of
showers extending as far N/W as Broome to Otsego Counties where
any showers should be more isolated in nature.

For tonight, showers and any storms initially diminish this
evening. However as the upper level low to the south pushes NE
additional showers associated with this feature will develop and
move up the coast later this evening into the overnight. South and
east portions of the CWA will be near the back edge of these
showers with some differences in the models regarding how far west
these showers extend. The GEM/ECMWF keep showers to our east while
GFS/NAM bring showers farther west into the CWA. Utilized a model
blend which brings chance POPs back mainly into Pike/Sullivan
Counties overnight. Farther north and west expect mainly dry
conditions overnight with mainly clear to partly cloudy skies. A
stronger wind field just off the surface should limit fog
potential so this has not been included in forecast. Lows will be
mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper level low continues to push NE through Tuesday moving
into southern New England. This will continue to put eastern
portions of the CWA under the chance of some scattered showers.
However we did shave back the western edge of these chance POPs
and so keep the I-81 corridor and points west dry for Tuesday
where skies should be partly to mostly sunny. Highs will generally
range from the low 70s east where there will be more cloud cover to
the upper 70s west. Also, the best instability looks to be east of
the area but we did include the slight chance of thunderstorms for
eastern Pike and Sullivan Counties.

Large scale upper level ridging will build into NY/PA Tuesday
night into Wednesday as a surface cold front drops into Ontario.
Temperatures will push to around 80 degrees in most locations
Wednesday afternoon with the potential for showers and
thunderstorms in advance of the front, mainly over central NY.

For Wednesday night, any showers diminish in the evening with the
overnight being mainly dry and milder with lows in the 50s. For
Thursday, a warm front will push across the region from the SW and
this combined with daytime instability will bring more widespread
showers and storms to the area, especially by the afternoon. Highs
will be once again in the upper 70s to low 80s with dew points
rising into the low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Holiday weekend begins with rdgg off the east cst and "ring of
fire" convection along the west side of the ridge, up the MS vly
to the ern Great Lakes. Bndry close enuf to the fcst area to keep
chance pops in for Fri, but then the rdg blds limiting the chance
on Sat and even Sun. By Mon, nrn part of the rdg brks down a bit
as a sw passes by to the north so their may be an incrs in the
chance for trws. Hwvr...predicting conv this far out is a tricky
thing and really the chance for aftn conv cannot be ruled out any
day in the pd.

Temps will fnly be abv nrml with daytime highs pushing into the
80s esp in the vlys and wrm ngts with a sw flow of air from the
srn U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours,
accompanied with some light valley fog tonight. The upper level
low will shift slightly to the east during the forecast period.
This shift in the upper low will result in additional showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY and northeast PA Tues
afternoon, but further to the east than what occurred today. The
best location to see fog tonight will be KAVP.

Winds will be light and variable through the sunrise, then
increase to around 5 to 11 knots from the northwest Tues
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...

Tue ngt...VFR.

Wed thru Sat...Gnrl VFR conds although aftn trws psbl with brief
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM/KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 230646
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
246 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper atmospheric storm system will keep a few showers or
thunderstorms over the eastern half of our region through Tuesday.
A warmer, more summer-like weather pattern will set up by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Shower remnants from a departing short wave are rapidly
dissipating, giving way to patchy fog early this morning.

With the cool pool aloft well to the east now, temperatures will
rebound into the lower and middle 70s today under partly sunny
skies. A few showers or thunderstorms will spark over the
southeastern forecast area in afternoon heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level storm system will weaken and slide up the New
England coast late tonight, keeping a chance for a few showers
over the eastern half of our forecast area on Tuesday. Most of the
instability appears to shift east of our region Tuesday afternoon,
so we kept thunder out of the forecast for now.

Large scale ridging will build into NY/PA on Wednesday as a cold
front drops into Ontario. Temperatures will push to around 80
degrees in most locations Wednesday afternoon, with the potential
for showers and thunderstorms in advance of the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
245 AM Update...
Blended new temperature guidance with existing grids and made
minor tweaks to POPs. As model guidance hasn`t changed much, we
left the previous forecast pretty much intact.

Previous discussion...
Medium range models are in fair agreement through the extended
forecast. The dominate upper level pattern shows an upper level
trof over the western states with a building ridge in the east.
This will result in an increasingly warmer and more humid air mass
for the local area. High temperatures next weekend may range in
the lower to middle 80s, which is 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

It also appears there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms
each day as mid level short waves in southwest upper level flow
and a meandering frontal boundary act as a focus for convection.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid and high level clouds rotating NE to SW this morning are
experiencing rapid dissipation as drier air mixes in. These
conditions will allow for the development of low clouds and patchy
fog this morning. MVFR visibilities are likely before 12-13Z this
morning...with IFR/LIFR vsbys/ceilings possible especially at
KELM. Will need to monitor KAVP as well for possible IFR vsbys.
Otherwise the main concern later today will be the upper level
low over the Mid-Atlantic region today that will allow for the
formation of a SCT-BKN050 deck with the potential for -SHRA at
KAVP in the afternoon. Dry air mixing in from the w/nw with an
upper ridge should keep rain mainly confined to the east. Winds
will be light and variable this morning before becoming northerly
around 10 knots in the afternoon. Winds go light and variable
tonight as VFR conditions set in.

OUTLOOK...

Tuesday...Restrictions possible during the afternoon at KBGM/KAVP
due to showers. Rest of terminals VFR.

Tuesday night/Wednesday...Primarily VFR.

Thursday/Friday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms with
associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...BJT/KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 230555
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
155 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will continue to bring the chance of showers
to the area through Tuesday, mainly east of Interstate 81. Beyond
this time a southwest flow develops with a warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM Update...
Small wave pivoted out of the Adirondacks and produced another
cluster of showers-isolated thunder into Oneida-Otsego-Madison
counties, with remains of those showers now drifting across the
I-81 corridor while diminishing with loss of diurnal heating.
Meanwhile, to the west of this wave, much of the cloud cover
cleared out from Central Southern Tier to Finger Lakes. Resultant
radiational cooling in some of those locations has already
yielded patchy fog where rain fell earlier today. Clouds from the
west will drift back over those areas for a time overnight, but in
the end valleys of the Twin Tiers to Western Catskills can expect
fog to develop towards dawn.

Previous discussion...
An upper level low continues to sit south of the area and will
influence our weather through Tuesday. There have been some breaks
in the cloud cover over the north and this has allowed some
instability to develop with some scattered showers/storms
affecting Oneida County as of mid afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis
depicts surface based CAPE over 500 J/kg across the lake plain
however mean flow and shear quite weak. Farther south, some
showers also located across the southern tier into NE PA. For the
remainder of the afternoon, expect some scattered showers to
continue affecting the area with also some thunder possible
best chances for thunder will continue to be across the far north
through Onondaga east through northern Madison and Oneida
Counties.

For this evening, the combination of the loss of daytime heating
combined with the upper low pushing a little farther south will
result in showers diminishing with clearing skies from north to
south over much of central NY. Meanwhile, mid level clouds will
tend to hold on over NE PA where only partial clearing is
indicated by later tonight. The combination of the moist low
levels along with clearing and light winds will result in some
valley fog forming across the southern tier so this has been
added to forecast. Lows will be mainly in the upper 40s to low
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For Monday, the combination of the upper low to the south with
some shortwave energy rotating back to the west along with
daytime instability will result in some scattered showers with the
risk of storms developing once again by afternoon  mainly from
the central southern tier of NY and points south and east. Areas
to the north and west across the Finger Lakes and Lake Plain
should stay mostly sunny and dry. Temperatures will be warmer with
highs in the low to mid 70s.

For Monday night into Tuesday, the upper low will move NE from the
Delmarva to New England. As a result the best chance for showers
for Monday Night into Tuesday will be areas east of Interstate 81
where considerable cloud cover with scattered showers will
continue. By Tuesday, best instability looks to be east of the
area so we do not include any thunder in the forecast. Finally by
Tuesday night, upper level low moves away with brief surface
ridging briefly taking hold before a warmer SW flow develops
Wednesday as ridging pushes south and cold front pushes down into
southern Ontario. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s by
Wednesday afternoon with the chance of some late day showers or
storms over central NY ahead of cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Medium range models are in fair agreement through the extended
forecast. The dominate upper level pattern shows an upper level
trof over the western states with a building ridge in the east.
This will result in an increasingly warmer and more humid airmass
for the local area. High temperatures next weekend may range in
the lower to middle 80s, which is 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

It also appears there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms
each day as mid level short waves in southwest upper level flow
and a meandering frontal boundary act as a focus for convection.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid and high level clouds rotating NE to SW this morning are
experiencing rapid dissipation as drier air mixes in. These
conditions will allow for the development of low clouds and patchy
fog this morning. MVFR visibilities are likely before 12-13Z this
morning...with IFR/LIFR vsbys/ceilings possible especially at
KELM. Will need to monitor KAVP as well for possible IFR vsbys.
Otherwise the main concern later today will be the upper level
low over the Mid-Atlantic region today that will allow for the
formation of a SCT-BKN050 deck with the potential for -SHRA at
KAVP in the afternoon. Dry air mixing in from the w/nw with an
upper ridge should keep rain mainly confined to the east. Winds
will be light and variable this morning before becoming northerly
around 10 knots in the afternoon. Winds go light and variable
tonight as VFR conditions set in.

OUTLOOK...

Tuesday...Restrictions possible during the afternoon at KBGM/KAVP
due to showers. Rest of terminals VFR.

Tuesday night/Wednesday...Primarily VFR.

Thursday/Friday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms with
associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/PCF
NEAR TERM...MDP/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...BJT/KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 222352
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
752 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will continue to bring the chance of showers
to the area through Tuesday, mainly east of Interstate 81. Beyond
this time a southwest flow develops with a warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
750 PM Update...
A small wave is pivoting out of the Adirondacks to spread another
cluster of showers-isolated thunder into Oneida-Otsego-Madison
counties. Otherwise however, loss of diurnal heating is quickly
eradicating what remains of the widely scattered showers. This is
going pretty much as prescribed, and only small tweaks were made
to the going forecast mostly to reflect current conditions.

Previous discussion...
An upper level low continues to sit south of the area and will
influence our weather through Tuesday. There have been some breaks
in the cloud cover over the north and this has allowed some
instability to develop with some scattered showers/storms
affecting Oneida County as of mid afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis
depicts surface based CAPE over 500 J/kg across the lake plain
however mean flow and shear quite weak. Farther south, some
showers also located across the southern tier into NE PA. For the
remainder of the afternoon, expect some scattered showers to
continue affecting the area with also some thunder possible
best chances for thunder will continue to be across the far north
through Onondaga east through northern Madison and Oneida
Counties.

For this evening, the combination of the loss of daytime heating
combined with the upper low pushing a little farther south will
result in showers diminishing with clearing skies from north to
south over much of central NY. Meanwhile, mid level clouds will
tend to hold on over NE PA where only partial clearing is
indicated by later tonight. The combination of the moist low
levels along with clearing and light winds will result in some
valley fog forming across the southern tier so this has been
added to forecast. Lows will be mainly in the upper 40s to low
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For Monday, the combination of the upper low to the south with
some shortwave energy rotating back to the west along with
daytime instability will result in some scattered showers with the
risk of storms developing once again by afternoon  mainly from
the central southern tier of NY and points south and east. Areas
to the north and west across the Finger Lakes and Lake Plain
should stay mostly sunny and dry. Temperatures will be warmer with
highs in the low to mid 70s.

For Monday night into Tuesday, the upper low will move NE from the
Delmarva to New England. As a result the best chance for showers
for Monday Night into Tuesday will be areas east of Interstate 81
where considerable cloud cover with scattered showers will
continue. By Tuesday, best instability looks to be east of the
area so we do not include any thunder in the forecast. Finally by
Tuesday night, upper level low moves away with brief surface
ridging briefly taking hold before a warmer SW flow develops
Wednesday as ridging pushes south and cold front pushes down into
southern Ontario. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s by
Wednesday afternoon with the chance of some late day showers or
storms over central NY ahead of cold front. &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Medium range models are in fair agreement through the extended
forecast. The dominate upper level pattern shows an upper level
trof over the western states with a building ridge in the east.
This will result in an increasingly warmer and more humid airmass
for the local area. High temperatures next weekend may range in
the lower to middle 80s, which is 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

It also appears there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms
each day as mid level short waves in southwest upper level flow
and a meandering frontal boundary act as a focus for convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Medium range models are in fair agreement through the extended
forecast. The dominate upper level pattern shows an upper level
trof over the western states with a building ridge in the east.
This will result in an increasingly warmer and more humid airmass
for the local area. High temperatures next weekend may range in
the lower to middle 80s, which is 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

It also appears there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms
each day as mid level short waves in southwest upper level flow
and a meandering frontal boundary act as a focus for convection.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are winding down this evening
across nepa and central ny. Expect these showers to dissipate over
the next couple of hours. Along with the showers diminishing,
ceilings are expected to scatter or clear out overnight. This may
result in valley fog over the region. The best locations to see
IFR fog tonight will be at KELM, KITH and possibly KBGM. The upper
level ridge that was present over the region today will shift
slightly to the east and showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected to develop again within prime heating. KAVP has the best
chance to see showers Mon afternoon. Winds will be light and
variable through the night and become northerly around 5 to 10
knots Mon afternoon.

OUTLOOK...

Monday night...VFR.
Tuesday...Restrictions possible during the afternoon at KBGM/KAVP
due to showers. Rest of VFR.

Tuesday night/Wednesday...Primarily VFR.

Thursday/Friday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms with
associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/PCF
NEAR TERM...MDP/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...KAH/RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 222345
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
745 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will continue to bring the chance of showers
to the area through Tuesday. Beyond this time a southwest flow
develops with a warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
An upper level low continues to sit south of the area and will influence
our weather through Tuesday. There have been some breaks in the
cloud cover over the north and this has allowed some instability
to develop with some scattered showers/storms affecting Oneida
County as of mid afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis depicts surface based
CAPE over 500 J/kg across the lake plain however mean flow and
shear quite weak. Farther south, some showers also located across
the southern tier into NE PA. For the remainder of the afternoon,
expect some scattered showers to continue affecting the area with
also some thunder possible  best chances for thunder will
continue to be across the far north through Onondaga east through
northern Madison and Oneida Counties.

For this evening, the combination of the loss of daytime heating
combined with the upper low pushing a little farther south will
result in showers diminishing with clearing skies from north to
south over much of central NY. Meanwhile, mid level clouds will
tend to hold on over NE PA where only partial clearing is
indicated by later tonight. The combination of the moist low
levels along with clearing and light winds will result in some
valley fog forming across the southern tier so this has been
added to forecast. Lows will be mainly in the upper 40s to low
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For Monday, the combination of the upper low to the south with
some shortwave energy rotating back to the west along with
daytime instability will result in some scattered showers with the
risk of storms developing once again by afternoon  mainly from
the central southern tier of NY and points south and east. Areas
to the north and west across the Finger Lakes and Lake Plain
should stay mostly sunny and dry. Temperatures will be warmer with
highs in the low to mid 70s.

For Monday night into Tuesday, the upper low will move NE from the
Delmarva to New England. As a result the best chance for showers
for Monday Night into Tuesday will be areas east of Interstate 81
where considerable cloud cover with scattered showers will
continue. By Tuesday, best instability looks to be east of the
area so we do not include any thunder in the forecast. Finally by
Tuesday night, upper level low moves away with brief surface
ridging briefly taking hold before a warmer SW flow develops
Wednesday as ridging pushes south and cold front pushes down into
southern Ontario. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s by
Wednesday afternoon with the chance of some late day showers or
storms over central NY ahead of cold front. &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Medium range models are in fair agreement through the extended
forecast. The dominate upper level pattern shows an upper level
trof over the western states with a building ridge in the east.
This will result in an increasingly warmer and more humid airmass
for the local area. High temperatures next weekend may range in
the lower to middle 80s, which is 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

It also appears there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms
each day as mid level short waves in southwest upper level flow
and a meandering frontal boundary act as a focus for convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Medium range models are in fair agreement through the extended
forecast. The dominate upper level pattern shows an upper level
trof over the western states with a building ridge in the east.
This will result in an increasingly warmer and more humid airmass
for the local area. High temperatures next weekend may range in
the lower to middle 80s, which is 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

It also appears there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms
each day as mid level short waves in southwest upper level flow
and a meandering frontal boundary act as a focus for convection.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are winding down this evening
across nepa and central ny. Expect these showers to dissipate over
the next couple of hours. Along with the showers diminishing,
ceilings are expected to scatter or clear out overnight. This may
result in valley fog over the region. The best locations to see
IFR fog tonight will be at KELM, KITH and possibly KBGM. The upper
level ridge that was present over the region today will shift
slightly to the east and showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected to develop again within prime heating. KAVP has the best
chance to see showers Mon afternoon. Winds will be light and
variable through the night and become northerly around 5 to 10
knots Mon afternoon.

OUTLOOK...

Monday night...VFR.
Tuesday...Restrictions possible during the afternoon at KBGM/KAVP
due to showers. Rest of VFR.

Tuesday night/Wednesday...Primarily VFR.

Thursday/Friday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms with
associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...KAH/RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 221750
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
150 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system in the upper atmosphere will keep our weather
unsettled through at least Monday, as a warming trend begins.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
940 AM update...
No major changes to forecast at this time. Still expect showers to
continue affecting the forecast area through the day but just made
some minor changes to POP grids utilizing latest HRRR and also
tweaked QPF grids.


230 AM Update...
Slow moving areas of precipitation paint the radar early this
morning. A large area of light to moderate rain is slowly rotating
through central PA, not far from a dissipating low pressure
center, while lighter showers extend through eastern PA and along
Lake Ontario.

The precipitation should fill in late morning into early
afternoon, as temperatures warm into the 60s, positive vorticity
advection increases, and the weak coastal low moves northward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...The closed upper atmospheric low will slide south toward
North Carolina, bringing an end to the shower activity over NY and
PA overnight. Temperatures will dip into the upper 40s.

Monday...Very little movement is forecast for the upper low. A
fair degree of sunshine is expected over NY/PA, and with the cool
pool south of our region, temperatures should rebound into the
lower and middle 70s. The proximity of the low, which will travel
north off the New Jersey coast late in the day, combined with daytime
heating, should spark a few showers in the afternoon, especially
south and east of I-81. We will continue to monitor for
possibility of convection. At this point, the potential appears
too low to include in the forecast.

Tuesday...The low meanders over New England and throws slightly
cooler air back into the Catskills and Poconos. We kept a chance
for showers over the eastern FA due to the upper low. Surface
ridging into southwestern NY should push temperatures over the
Central Southern Tier and Finger Lakes into the middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak ridging aloft will continue on Wednesday and keep rain showers
generally suppressed across the region into Wednesday night. Will
still hold onto slight chance pops in the afternoon/evening due to
the uncertainty regarding the strength of the ridge and the timing of
the next short wave expected to push in early Thursday...but
confidence is low at this time.

On Thursday the ridge aloft gets replaced by a persistently cyclonic
pattern into the weekend. This active pattern will interact with a
much warmer and more unstable atmosphere that will settle in across
the region late this week. As surface temperatures warm into the 80s
and dew points rise into the 60s...steep low level lapse rates will
develop and ML CAPE values will climb above 1000 j/kg. This amount
of instability along with increasing deep layer moisture will allow
for showers and thunderstorms late this week and likely through the
weekend. The one limiting factor that will likely keep convection
from getting out of hand is the very weak deep layer
shear...generally less than 20 kt.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level trof and diurnal heating will result in scattered MVFR
rain showers into the early evening. Included tempo group for
MVFR rain showers in all TAF sites through 23z. At KAVP left it as
predominate MVFR rain showers through 22Z as activity will be most
widespread here. With loss of diurnal heating skies will scatter
out overnight from north to south except for KAVP where a mid deck
will remain. Model soundings suggest valley fog across the twin
tiers therefore included IFR fog at KELM/KITH between 09Z-13Z. At
KBGM/KAVP just MVFR fog. BY mid mornirng all TAF sites will be
VFR.

Northerly flow around 5-8 knots becoming light and variable
overnight then northerly again on Monday at 5-10 knots.

OUTLOOK...

Monday night...VFR.
Tuesday...Restrictions possible during the afternoon at KBGM/KAVP
due to showers. Rest of VFR.

Tuesday night/Wednesday...Primarily VFR.

Thursday/Friday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms with
associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...RRM





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