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000
FXUS61 KBGM 270711
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
311 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SHARP POLAR TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND,
SETTING OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND SATURDAY, AND CAUSING
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INCREASED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING FROM
LUZERNE COUNTY UP TOWARD SULLIVAN NY. A PERSISTENT FLOW OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS CONTINUES OVER THIS AREA, RIDING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF OUR SERN FA THIS MORNING.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING POLAR TROF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
210 AM UPDATE...
A SHARP POLAR TROF IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL DIP DOWN FROM
LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE, ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NY/PA. A
WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN NY TODAY.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROF, THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TRACE TO A
HALF INCH THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

THE REAL STORY WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY MORNING AND
RISE ONLY INTO THE 20S OR LOWER 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY
MORNING, MANY SITES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TEENS, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN FA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY, BRINGING A
TEMPORARY LULL IN THE WEATHER. THE POLAR AIR IS PROGGED TO BREAK
OFF FROM ITS SOURCE REGION, FIZZLING OUT AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD.
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, MAXES WILL
REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SATURDAY. POWERFUL LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE
WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURES SEEM MORE PLEASANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MIXED PRECIP
AND TEMPERATURES WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT STILL. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
WILL DETERMINE WHAT FALLS FROM SKY. USED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
EURO/GFS BOTH SHOW A STORM TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SO UPPED POPS
THOSE PERIODS. OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA/US WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INCLUDED CHC
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL THEN RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

MVFR AT AVP/ELM AND IFR REST WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE EARLY THIS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR COMES IN FROM WEST. MOST CONFIDENT ON RME AND
BGM STAYING IFR UNTIL 12Z. LOW CONDITIONS MOSTLY DUE TO CIGS.

TODAY CIGS RISE TO VFR AT ELM AND AVP WHILE REST OF SITES RISE TO
MVFR AND REMAIN INTO THIS EVE. VSBYS WILL BE VFR.

SFC WINDS W TO NW AT 4 TO 8 KTS SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI OVERNIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT TO SUN...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 270711
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
311 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SHARP POLAR TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND,
SETTING OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND SATURDAY, AND CAUSING
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INCREASED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING FROM
LUZERNE COUNTY UP TOWARD SULLIVAN NY. A PERSISTENT FLOW OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS CONTINUES OVER THIS AREA, RIDING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF OUR SERN FA THIS MORNING.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING POLAR TROF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
210 AM UPDATE...
A SHARP POLAR TROF IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL DIP DOWN FROM
LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE, ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NY/PA. A
WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN NY TODAY.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROF, THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TRACE TO A
HALF INCH THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

THE REAL STORY WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY MORNING AND
RISE ONLY INTO THE 20S OR LOWER 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY
MORNING, MANY SITES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TEENS, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN FA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY, BRINGING A
TEMPORARY LULL IN THE WEATHER. THE POLAR AIR IS PROGGED TO BREAK
OFF FROM ITS SOURCE REGION, FIZZLING OUT AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD.
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, MAXES WILL
REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SATURDAY. POWERFUL LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE
WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURES SEEM MORE PLEASANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MIXED PRECIP
AND TEMPERATURES WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT STILL. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
WILL DETERMINE WHAT FALLS FROM SKY. USED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
EURO/GFS BOTH SHOW A STORM TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SO UPPED POPS
THOSE PERIODS. OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA/US WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INCLUDED CHC
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL THEN RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

MVFR AT AVP/ELM AND IFR REST WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE EARLY THIS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR COMES IN FROM WEST. MOST CONFIDENT ON RME AND
BGM STAYING IFR UNTIL 12Z. LOW CONDITIONS MOSTLY DUE TO CIGS.

TODAY CIGS RISE TO VFR AT ELM AND AVP WHILE REST OF SITES RISE TO
MVFR AND REMAIN INTO THIS EVE. VSBYS WILL BE VFR.

SFC WINDS W TO NW AT 4 TO 8 KTS SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI OVERNIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT TO SUN...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 270711
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
311 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SHARP POLAR TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND,
SETTING OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND SATURDAY, AND CAUSING
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INCREASED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING FROM
LUZERNE COUNTY UP TOWARD SULLIVAN NY. A PERSISTENT FLOW OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS CONTINUES OVER THIS AREA, RIDING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF OUR SERN FA THIS MORNING.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING POLAR TROF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
210 AM UPDATE...
A SHARP POLAR TROF IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL DIP DOWN FROM
LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE, ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NY/PA. A
WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN NY TODAY.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROF, THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TRACE TO A
HALF INCH THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

THE REAL STORY WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY MORNING AND
RISE ONLY INTO THE 20S OR LOWER 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY
MORNING, MANY SITES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TEENS, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN FA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY, BRINGING A
TEMPORARY LULL IN THE WEATHER. THE POLAR AIR IS PROGGED TO BREAK
OFF FROM ITS SOURCE REGION, FIZZLING OUT AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD.
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, MAXES WILL
REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SATURDAY. POWERFUL LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE
WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURES SEEM MORE PLEASANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MIXED PRECIP
AND TEMPERATURES WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT STILL. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
WILL DETERMINE WHAT FALLS FROM SKY. USED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
EURO/GFS BOTH SHOW A STORM TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SO UPPED POPS
THOSE PERIODS. OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA/US WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INCLUDED CHC
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL THEN RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

MVFR AT AVP/ELM AND IFR REST WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE EARLY THIS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR COMES IN FROM WEST. MOST CONFIDENT ON RME AND
BGM STAYING IFR UNTIL 12Z. LOW CONDITIONS MOSTLY DUE TO CIGS.

TODAY CIGS RISE TO VFR AT ELM AND AVP WHILE REST OF SITES RISE TO
MVFR AND REMAIN INTO THIS EVE. VSBYS WILL BE VFR.

SFC WINDS W TO NW AT 4 TO 8 KTS SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI OVERNIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT TO SUN...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 270711
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
311 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SHARP POLAR TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND,
SETTING OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND SATURDAY, AND CAUSING
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INCREASED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING FROM
LUZERNE COUNTY UP TOWARD SULLIVAN NY. A PERSISTENT FLOW OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS CONTINUES OVER THIS AREA, RIDING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF OUR SERN FA THIS MORNING.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING POLAR TROF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
210 AM UPDATE...
A SHARP POLAR TROF IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL DIP DOWN FROM
LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE, ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NY/PA. A
WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN NY TODAY.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROF, THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TRACE TO A
HALF INCH THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

THE REAL STORY WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY MORNING AND
RISE ONLY INTO THE 20S OR LOWER 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY
MORNING, MANY SITES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TEENS, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN FA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY, BRINGING A
TEMPORARY LULL IN THE WEATHER. THE POLAR AIR IS PROGGED TO BREAK
OFF FROM ITS SOURCE REGION, FIZZLING OUT AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD.
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, MAXES WILL
REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SATURDAY. POWERFUL LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE
WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURES SEEM MORE PLEASANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MIXED PRECIP
AND TEMPERATURES WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT STILL. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
WILL DETERMINE WHAT FALLS FROM SKY. USED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
EURO/GFS BOTH SHOW A STORM TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SO UPPED POPS
THOSE PERIODS. OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA/US WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INCLUDED CHC
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL THEN RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

MVFR AT AVP/ELM AND IFR REST WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE EARLY THIS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR COMES IN FROM WEST. MOST CONFIDENT ON RME AND
BGM STAYING IFR UNTIL 12Z. LOW CONDITIONS MOSTLY DUE TO CIGS.

TODAY CIGS RISE TO VFR AT ELM AND AVP WHILE REST OF SITES RISE TO
MVFR AND REMAIN INTO THIS EVE. VSBYS WILL BE VFR.

SFC WINDS W TO NW AT 4 TO 8 KTS SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI OVERNIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT TO SUN...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 270612
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
212 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SHARP POLAR TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND,
SETTING OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND SATURDAY, AND CAUSING
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
INCREASED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING FROM
LUZERNE COUNTY UP TOWARD SULLIVAN NY. A PERSISTENT FLOW OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS CONTINUES OVER THIS AREA, RIDING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF OUR SERN FA THIS MORNING.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING POLAR TROF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
210 AM UPDATE...
A SHARP POLAR TROF IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL DIP DOWN FROM
LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE, ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NY/PA. A
WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN NY TODAY.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROF, THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TRACE TO A
HALF INCH THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

THE REAL STORY WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY MORNING AND
RISE ONLY INTO THE 20S OR LOWER 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY
MORNING, MANY SITES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TEENS, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN FA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY, BRINGING A
TEMPORARY LULL IN THE WEATHER. THE POLAR AIR IS PROGGED TO BREAK OFF
FROM ITS SOURCE REGION, FIZZLING OUT AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD. THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, MAXES WILL
REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SATURDAY. POWERFUL LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE
WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURES SEEM MORE PLEASANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA/US WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INCLUDED CHC
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL THEN RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FCST PD. THE LOWEST CONDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...WITH -RASN AND FOG HAMPERING VSBY`S THROUGH
02-04Z...AND LWR CIGS LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THE NGT.

ON FRI...WE`RE ANTICIPATING CIG BASES TO ELEVATE INTO THE MVFR
CAT...WITH VFR PSBL AT KAVP DURG THE AFTN.

SFC WINDS MAINLY AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT OUT
OF THE NW ON FRI TO 8-10 KT.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 270612
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
212 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SHARP POLAR TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND,
SETTING OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND SATURDAY, AND CAUSING
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
INCREASED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING FROM
LUZERNE COUNTY UP TOWARD SULLIVAN NY. A PERSISTENT FLOW OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS CONTINUES OVER THIS AREA, RIDING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF OUR SERN FA THIS MORNING.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING POLAR TROF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
210 AM UPDATE...
A SHARP POLAR TROF IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL DIP DOWN FROM
LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE, ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NY/PA. A
WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN NY TODAY.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROF, THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TRACE TO A
HALF INCH THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

THE REAL STORY WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY MORNING AND
RISE ONLY INTO THE 20S OR LOWER 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY
MORNING, MANY SITES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TEENS, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN FA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY, BRINGING A
TEMPORARY LULL IN THE WEATHER. THE POLAR AIR IS PROGGED TO BREAK OFF
FROM ITS SOURCE REGION, FIZZLING OUT AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD. THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, MAXES WILL
REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SATURDAY. POWERFUL LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE
WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURES SEEM MORE PLEASANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA/US WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INCLUDED CHC
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL THEN RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FCST PD. THE LOWEST CONDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...WITH -RASN AND FOG HAMPERING VSBY`S THROUGH
02-04Z...AND LWR CIGS LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THE NGT.

ON FRI...WE`RE ANTICIPATING CIG BASES TO ELEVATE INTO THE MVFR
CAT...WITH VFR PSBL AT KAVP DURG THE AFTN.

SFC WINDS MAINLY AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT OUT
OF THE NW ON FRI TO 8-10 KT.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 270612
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
212 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SHARP POLAR TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND,
SETTING OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND SATURDAY, AND CAUSING
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
INCREASED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING FROM
LUZERNE COUNTY UP TOWARD SULLIVAN NY. A PERSISTENT FLOW OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS CONTINUES OVER THIS AREA, RIDING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF OUR SERN FA THIS MORNING.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING POLAR TROF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
210 AM UPDATE...
A SHARP POLAR TROF IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL DIP DOWN FROM
LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE, ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NY/PA. A
WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN NY TODAY.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROF, THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TRACE TO A
HALF INCH THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

THE REAL STORY WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY MORNING AND
RISE ONLY INTO THE 20S OR LOWER 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY
MORNING, MANY SITES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TEENS, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN FA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY, BRINGING A
TEMPORARY LULL IN THE WEATHER. THE POLAR AIR IS PROGGED TO BREAK OFF
FROM ITS SOURCE REGION, FIZZLING OUT AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD. THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, MAXES WILL
REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SATURDAY. POWERFUL LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE
WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURES SEEM MORE PLEASANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA/US WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INCLUDED CHC
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL THEN RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FCST PD. THE LOWEST CONDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...WITH -RASN AND FOG HAMPERING VSBY`S THROUGH
02-04Z...AND LWR CIGS LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THE NGT.

ON FRI...WE`RE ANTICIPATING CIG BASES TO ELEVATE INTO THE MVFR
CAT...WITH VFR PSBL AT KAVP DURG THE AFTN.

SFC WINDS MAINLY AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT OUT
OF THE NW ON FRI TO 8-10 KT.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 270612
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
212 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SHARP POLAR TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND,
SETTING OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND SATURDAY, AND CAUSING
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
INCREASED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING FROM
LUZERNE COUNTY UP TOWARD SULLIVAN NY. A PERSISTENT FLOW OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS CONTINUES OVER THIS AREA, RIDING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF OUR SERN FA THIS MORNING.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING POLAR TROF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
210 AM UPDATE...
A SHARP POLAR TROF IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL DIP DOWN FROM
LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE, ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NY/PA. A
WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN NY TODAY.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROF, THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TRACE TO A
HALF INCH THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

THE REAL STORY WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY MORNING AND
RISE ONLY INTO THE 20S OR LOWER 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY
MORNING, MANY SITES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TEENS, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN FA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY, BRINGING A
TEMPORARY LULL IN THE WEATHER. THE POLAR AIR IS PROGGED TO BREAK OFF
FROM ITS SOURCE REGION, FIZZLING OUT AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD. THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, MAXES WILL
REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SATURDAY. POWERFUL LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE
WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURES SEEM MORE PLEASANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA/US WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INCLUDED CHC
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL THEN RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FCST PD. THE LOWEST CONDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...WITH -RASN AND FOG HAMPERING VSBY`S THROUGH
02-04Z...AND LWR CIGS LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THE NGT.

ON FRI...WE`RE ANTICIPATING CIG BASES TO ELEVATE INTO THE MVFR
CAT...WITH VFR PSBL AT KAVP DURG THE AFTN.

SFC WINDS MAINLY AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT OUT
OF THE NW ON FRI TO 8-10 KT.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 270242
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1042 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME WET
SNOW BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN COLD FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1040 PM UPDATE...PRECIPITATION HAS REALLY DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA
THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
LIGHTER INTENSITY, WHILE WE SAW A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS, AMOUNTS WERE NOT AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH. THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN FALL
MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE WYOMING VALLEY OF NEPA. THIS
WILL ALLOW ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY CHANGE OR MIX
WITH SOME WET SNOW. AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A COATING
OF PRECIP LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE SHOULD BE
PRECIPITATION FREE BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A BIT
UNSETTLED FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY, ALONG WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN NY STATE AND
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON
SOUTH AND EAST. AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT WILL BE THE TEMPS
THAT WILL BE THE BIG STORY. MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY WILL BE
OUR "WARM" DAY, ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET. TEMPS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 30S BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA/US WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INCLUDED CHC
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL THEN RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FCST PD. THE LOWEST CONDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...WITH -RASN AND FOG HAMPERING VSBY`S THROUGH
02-04Z...AND LWR CIGS LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THE NGT.

ON FRI...WE`RE ANTICIPATING CIG BASES TO ELEVATE INTO THE MVFR
CAT...WITH VFR PSBL AT KAVP DURG THE AFTN.

SFC WINDS MAINLY AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT OUT
OF THE NW ON FRI TO 8-10 KT.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 270242
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1042 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME WET
SNOW BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN COLD FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1040 PM UPDATE...PRECIPITATION HAS REALLY DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA
THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
LIGHTER INTENSITY, WHILE WE SAW A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS, AMOUNTS WERE NOT AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH. THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN FALL
MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE WYOMING VALLEY OF NEPA. THIS
WILL ALLOW ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY CHANGE OR MIX
WITH SOME WET SNOW. AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A COATING
OF PRECIP LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE SHOULD BE
PRECIPITATION FREE BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A BIT
UNSETTLED FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY, ALONG WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN NY STATE AND
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON
SOUTH AND EAST. AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT WILL BE THE TEMPS
THAT WILL BE THE BIG STORY. MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY WILL BE
OUR "WARM" DAY, ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET. TEMPS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 30S BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA/US WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INCLUDED CHC
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL THEN RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FCST PD. THE LOWEST CONDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...WITH -RASN AND FOG HAMPERING VSBY`S THROUGH
02-04Z...AND LWR CIGS LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THE NGT.

ON FRI...WE`RE ANTICIPATING CIG BASES TO ELEVATE INTO THE MVFR
CAT...WITH VFR PSBL AT KAVP DURG THE AFTN.

SFC WINDS MAINLY AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT OUT
OF THE NW ON FRI TO 8-10 KT.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 270242
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1042 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME WET
SNOW BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN COLD FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1040 PM UPDATE...PRECIPITATION HAS REALLY DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA
THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
LIGHTER INTENSITY, WHILE WE SAW A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS, AMOUNTS WERE NOT AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH. THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN FALL
MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE WYOMING VALLEY OF NEPA. THIS
WILL ALLOW ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY CHANGE OR MIX
WITH SOME WET SNOW. AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A COATING
OF PRECIP LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE SHOULD BE
PRECIPITATION FREE BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A BIT
UNSETTLED FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY, ALONG WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN NY STATE AND
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON
SOUTH AND EAST. AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT WILL BE THE TEMPS
THAT WILL BE THE BIG STORY. MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY WILL BE
OUR "WARM" DAY, ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET. TEMPS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 30S BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA/US WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INCLUDED CHC
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL THEN RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FCST PD. THE LOWEST CONDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...WITH -RASN AND FOG HAMPERING VSBY`S THROUGH
02-04Z...AND LWR CIGS LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THE NGT.

ON FRI...WE`RE ANTICIPATING CIG BASES TO ELEVATE INTO THE MVFR
CAT...WITH VFR PSBL AT KAVP DURG THE AFTN.

SFC WINDS MAINLY AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT OUT
OF THE NW ON FRI TO 8-10 KT.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 270242
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1042 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME WET
SNOW BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN COLD FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1040 PM UPDATE...PRECIPITATION HAS REALLY DIMINISHED OVER OUR AREA
THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
LIGHTER INTENSITY, WHILE WE SAW A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS, AMOUNTS WERE NOT AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH. THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN FALL
MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE WYOMING VALLEY OF NEPA. THIS
WILL ALLOW ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY CHANGE OR MIX
WITH SOME WET SNOW. AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A COATING
OF PRECIP LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE SHOULD BE
PRECIPITATION FREE BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A BIT
UNSETTLED FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY, ALONG WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN NY STATE AND
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON
SOUTH AND EAST. AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT WILL BE THE TEMPS
THAT WILL BE THE BIG STORY. MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY WILL BE
OUR "WARM" DAY, ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET. TEMPS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 30S BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA/US WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INCLUDED CHC
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL THEN RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FCST PD. THE LOWEST CONDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...WITH -RASN AND FOG HAMPERING VSBY`S THROUGH
02-04Z...AND LWR CIGS LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THE NGT.

ON FRI...WE`RE ANTICIPATING CIG BASES TO ELEVATE INTO THE MVFR
CAT...WITH VFR PSBL AT KAVP DURG THE AFTN.

SFC WINDS MAINLY AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT OUT
OF THE NW ON FRI TO 8-10 KT.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 262337
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
737 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING
TONIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN COLD FRIDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
240 PM UPDATE...

A WILD START TO THE DAY WITH THUNDER AND HAIL HERE AT THE OFFICE
AND ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN NY. ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW, WITH THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL FAR SOUTHEAST.

RAIN TO SNOW....A THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND SULLIVAN
COUNTY IS ALLOWING FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE TEMP CHANGES. WE ARE 41 NOW
IN TOWANDA, BUT 56 JUST DOWN THE ROAD IN SCRANTON WITH SOME HINTS
OF SUNSHINE. MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WHILE THUNDER MAY
HAVE GIVEN US SOUNDS OF SPRING THIS MORNING WE ARE ANYTHING BUT SPRING
LIKE. MID TO UPPER 30S IS THE RULE FROM THE NY/PA LINE NORTH AT THE
MOMENT AND TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH EVENING.
FOR THE MOST PART WE ARE STILL SEEING JUST RAIN OVER OUR AREA BUT
HINTS OF A CHANGE TO SNOW ARE NOT FAR OFF. WE HAVE HAD A REPORT OF
SOME SNOW MIXING IN AT HORNELL LAST HOUR, AND WITH SNOW AT FULTON,
I SURMISE WE ARE GETTING SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY ATTM. THE
LATEST RUC 850 MB OC LINE, ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPS 36 DEGREES OR
COOLER SEEMS TO BE THE TRANSITION LINE TO AT LEAST A MIX OF SNOW.
THROUGH 0Z I SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. IN PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE ALL SNOW,
DESPITE SURFACE TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BEING IN THE 33-36 RANGE.
BASED ON WEB CAMS IN THE BUFFALO AREA NOW AND SURFACE TEMPS MAINLY
BEING ABOVE FREEZING, I SEE UP TO A SLUSHY INCH THROUGH 0Z MAINLY
ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS CENTRAL NY DOWN THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES. MOST ROADS SHOULD BE PLENTY FINE WITH SUCH WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
WHERE SLIGHTLY COLDER SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALLOW A COATING TO 2
INCHES. ALSO IN THE HILLS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE WE MAY BE CLOSER TO AN
INCH, THAN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE CITY. IN THESE TWO
AREAS, A LIGHT COATING CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON THE ROADS.

OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA, THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE PULLING EAST. WITH THAT IN MIND
EXPECT A GRADUAL RAIN TO SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN ANOTHER LIGHT COATING TO AN INCH AT MOST
TONIGHT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN NY STATE AND INTO THE
CATSKILLS WHERE THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR.

THUNDER CHANCES...UNLIKE EARLIER WHERE WE SAW CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS, OUR THUNDER CHANCES
LATE TODAY WILL BE AHEAD OF THE THERMAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LIMIT
CHANCES TO THE NEPA AND AT THAT, ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER AT BEST IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A BIT
UNSETTLED FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY, ALONG WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN NY STATE AND
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON
SOUTH AND EAST. AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT WILL BE THE TEMPS
THAT WILL BE THE BIG STORY. MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY WILL BE
OUR "WARM" DAY, ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET. TEMPS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 30S BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA/US WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INCLUDED CHC
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL THEN RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FCST PD. THE LOWEST CONDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...WITH -RASN AND FOG HAMPERING VSBY`S THROUGH
02-04Z...AND LWR CIGS LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THE NGT.

ON FRI...WE`RE ANTICIPATING CIG BASES TO ELEVATE INTO THE MVFR
CAT...WITH VFR PSBL AT KAVP DURG THE AFTN.

SFC WINDS MAINLY AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT OUT
OF THE NW ON FRI TO 8-10 KT.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 262337
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
737 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING
TONIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN COLD FRIDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
240 PM UPDATE...

A WILD START TO THE DAY WITH THUNDER AND HAIL HERE AT THE OFFICE
AND ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN NY. ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW, WITH THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL FAR SOUTHEAST.

RAIN TO SNOW....A THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND SULLIVAN
COUNTY IS ALLOWING FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE TEMP CHANGES. WE ARE 41 NOW
IN TOWANDA, BUT 56 JUST DOWN THE ROAD IN SCRANTON WITH SOME HINTS
OF SUNSHINE. MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WHILE THUNDER MAY
HAVE GIVEN US SOUNDS OF SPRING THIS MORNING WE ARE ANYTHING BUT SPRING
LIKE. MID TO UPPER 30S IS THE RULE FROM THE NY/PA LINE NORTH AT THE
MOMENT AND TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH EVENING.
FOR THE MOST PART WE ARE STILL SEEING JUST RAIN OVER OUR AREA BUT
HINTS OF A CHANGE TO SNOW ARE NOT FAR OFF. WE HAVE HAD A REPORT OF
SOME SNOW MIXING IN AT HORNELL LAST HOUR, AND WITH SNOW AT FULTON,
I SURMISE WE ARE GETTING SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY ATTM. THE
LATEST RUC 850 MB OC LINE, ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPS 36 DEGREES OR
COOLER SEEMS TO BE THE TRANSITION LINE TO AT LEAST A MIX OF SNOW.
THROUGH 0Z I SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. IN PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE ALL SNOW,
DESPITE SURFACE TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BEING IN THE 33-36 RANGE.
BASED ON WEB CAMS IN THE BUFFALO AREA NOW AND SURFACE TEMPS MAINLY
BEING ABOVE FREEZING, I SEE UP TO A SLUSHY INCH THROUGH 0Z MAINLY
ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS CENTRAL NY DOWN THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES. MOST ROADS SHOULD BE PLENTY FINE WITH SUCH WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
WHERE SLIGHTLY COLDER SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALLOW A COATING TO 2
INCHES. ALSO IN THE HILLS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE WE MAY BE CLOSER TO AN
INCH, THAN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE CITY. IN THESE TWO
AREAS, A LIGHT COATING CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON THE ROADS.

OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA, THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE PULLING EAST. WITH THAT IN MIND
EXPECT A GRADUAL RAIN TO SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN ANOTHER LIGHT COATING TO AN INCH AT MOST
TONIGHT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN NY STATE AND INTO THE
CATSKILLS WHERE THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR.

THUNDER CHANCES...UNLIKE EARLIER WHERE WE SAW CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS, OUR THUNDER CHANCES
LATE TODAY WILL BE AHEAD OF THE THERMAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LIMIT
CHANCES TO THE NEPA AND AT THAT, ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER AT BEST IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A BIT
UNSETTLED FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY, ALONG WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN NY STATE AND
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON
SOUTH AND EAST. AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT WILL BE THE TEMPS
THAT WILL BE THE BIG STORY. MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY WILL BE
OUR "WARM" DAY, ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET. TEMPS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 30S BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA/US WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INCLUDED CHC
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL THEN RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FCST PD. THE LOWEST CONDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...WITH -RASN AND FOG HAMPERING VSBY`S THROUGH
02-04Z...AND LWR CIGS LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THE NGT.

ON FRI...WE`RE ANTICIPATING CIG BASES TO ELEVATE INTO THE MVFR
CAT...WITH VFR PSBL AT KAVP DURG THE AFTN.

SFC WINDS MAINLY AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT OUT
OF THE NW ON FRI TO 8-10 KT.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 261946
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
346 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING
TONIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN COLD FRIDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
240 PM UPDATE...

A WILD START TO THE DAY WITH THUNDER AND HAIL HERE AT THE OFFICE
AND ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN NY. ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW, WITH THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL FAR SOUTHEAST.

RAIN TO SNOW....A THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND SULLIVAN
COUNTY IS ALLOWING FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE TEMP CHANGES. WE ARE 41 NOW
IN TOWANDA, BUT 56 JUST DOWN THE ROAD IN SCRANTON WITH SOME HINTS
OF SUNSHINE. MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WHILE THUNDER MAY
HAVE GIVEN US SOUNDS OF SPRING THIS MORNING WE ARE ANYTHING BUT SPRING
LIKE. MID TO UPPER 30S IS THE RULE FROM THE NY/PA LINE NORTH AT THE
MOMENT AND TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH EVENING.
FOR THE MOST PART WE ARE STILL SEEING JUST RAIN OVER OUR AREA BUT
HINTS OF A CHANGE TO SNOW ARE NOT FAR OFF. WE HAVE HAD A REPORT OF
SOME SNOW MIXING IN AT HORNELL LAST HOUR, AND WITH SNOW AT FULTON,
I SURMISE WE ARE GETTING SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY ATTM. THE
LATEST RUC 850 MB OC LINE, ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPS 36 DEGREES OR
COOLER SEEMS TO BE THE TRANSITION LINE TO AT LEAST A MIX OF SNOW.
THROUGH 0Z I SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. IN PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE ALL SNOW,
DESPITE SURFACE TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BEING IN THE 33-36 RANGE.
BASED ON WEB CAMS IN THE BUFFALO AREA NOW AND SURFACE TEMPS MAINLY
BEING ABOVE FREEZING, I SEE UP TO A SLUSHY INCH THROUGH 0Z MAINLY
ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS CENTRAL NY DOWN THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES. MOST ROADS SHOULD BE PLENTY FINE WITH SUCH WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
WHERE SLIGHTLY COLDER SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALLOW A COATING TO 2
INCHES. ALSO IN THE HILLS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE WE MAY BE CLOSER TO AN
INCH, THAN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE CITY. IN THESE TWO
AREAS, A LIGHT COATING CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON THE ROADS.

OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA, THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE PULLING EAST. WITH THAT IN MIND
EXPECT A GRADUAL RAIN TO SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN ANOTHER LIGHT COATING TO AN INCH AT MOST
TONIGHT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN NY STATE AND INTO THE
CATSKILLS WHERE THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR.

THUNDER CHANCES...UNLIKE EARLIER WHERE WE SAW CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS, OUR THUNDER CHANCES
LATE TODAY WILL BE AHEAD OF THE THERMAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LIMIT
CHANCES TO THE NEPA AND AT THAT, ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER AT BEST IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A BIT
UNSETTLED FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY, ALONG WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN NY STATE AND
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON
SOUTH AND EAST. AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT WILL BE THE TEMPS
THAT WILL BE THE BIG STORY. MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY WILL BE
OUR "WARM" DAY, ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET. TEMPS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 30S BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA/US WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INCLUDED CHC
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL THEN RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
THROUGH EASTERN PA INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. OVER THE NYS
TERMINALS RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WIDESPREAD IFR/BELOW ALT MIN CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NYS TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT, WEAK MIXING AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY LOW MVFR CIGS
EXCEPT FOR IFR CIGS AT KITH/KBGM. ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z. OVERNIGHT LOW MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NW AROUND 5 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 261946
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
346 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING
TONIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN COLD FRIDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
240 PM UPDATE...

A WILD START TO THE DAY WITH THUNDER AND HAIL HERE AT THE OFFICE
AND ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN NY. ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW, WITH THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL FAR SOUTHEAST.

RAIN TO SNOW....A THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND SULLIVAN
COUNTY IS ALLOWING FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE TEMP CHANGES. WE ARE 41 NOW
IN TOWANDA, BUT 56 JUST DOWN THE ROAD IN SCRANTON WITH SOME HINTS
OF SUNSHINE. MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WHILE THUNDER MAY
HAVE GIVEN US SOUNDS OF SPRING THIS MORNING WE ARE ANYTHING BUT SPRING
LIKE. MID TO UPPER 30S IS THE RULE FROM THE NY/PA LINE NORTH AT THE
MOMENT AND TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH EVENING.
FOR THE MOST PART WE ARE STILL SEEING JUST RAIN OVER OUR AREA BUT
HINTS OF A CHANGE TO SNOW ARE NOT FAR OFF. WE HAVE HAD A REPORT OF
SOME SNOW MIXING IN AT HORNELL LAST HOUR, AND WITH SNOW AT FULTON,
I SURMISE WE ARE GETTING SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY ATTM. THE
LATEST RUC 850 MB OC LINE, ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPS 36 DEGREES OR
COOLER SEEMS TO BE THE TRANSITION LINE TO AT LEAST A MIX OF SNOW.
THROUGH 0Z I SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. IN PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE ALL SNOW,
DESPITE SURFACE TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BEING IN THE 33-36 RANGE.
BASED ON WEB CAMS IN THE BUFFALO AREA NOW AND SURFACE TEMPS MAINLY
BEING ABOVE FREEZING, I SEE UP TO A SLUSHY INCH THROUGH 0Z MAINLY
ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS CENTRAL NY DOWN THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES. MOST ROADS SHOULD BE PLENTY FINE WITH SUCH WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
WHERE SLIGHTLY COLDER SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALLOW A COATING TO 2
INCHES. ALSO IN THE HILLS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE WE MAY BE CLOSER TO AN
INCH, THAN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE CITY. IN THESE TWO
AREAS, A LIGHT COATING CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON THE ROADS.

OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA, THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE PULLING EAST. WITH THAT IN MIND
EXPECT A GRADUAL RAIN TO SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN ANOTHER LIGHT COATING TO AN INCH AT MOST
TONIGHT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN NY STATE AND INTO THE
CATSKILLS WHERE THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR.

THUNDER CHANCES...UNLIKE EARLIER WHERE WE SAW CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS, OUR THUNDER CHANCES
LATE TODAY WILL BE AHEAD OF THE THERMAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LIMIT
CHANCES TO THE NEPA AND AT THAT, ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER AT BEST IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A BIT
UNSETTLED FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY, ALONG WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN NY STATE AND
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON
SOUTH AND EAST. AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT WILL BE THE TEMPS
THAT WILL BE THE BIG STORY. MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY WILL BE
OUR "WARM" DAY, ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET. TEMPS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 30S BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA/US WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INCLUDED CHC
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL THEN RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
THROUGH EASTERN PA INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. OVER THE NYS
TERMINALS RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WIDESPREAD IFR/BELOW ALT MIN CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NYS TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT, WEAK MIXING AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY LOW MVFR CIGS
EXCEPT FOR IFR CIGS AT KITH/KBGM. ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z. OVERNIGHT LOW MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NW AROUND 5 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 261946
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
346 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING
TONIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN COLD FRIDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
240 PM UPDATE...

A WILD START TO THE DAY WITH THUNDER AND HAIL HERE AT THE OFFICE
AND ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN NY. ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW, WITH THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL FAR SOUTHEAST.

RAIN TO SNOW....A THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND SULLIVAN
COUNTY IS ALLOWING FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE TEMP CHANGES. WE ARE 41 NOW
IN TOWANDA, BUT 56 JUST DOWN THE ROAD IN SCRANTON WITH SOME HINTS
OF SUNSHINE. MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WHILE THUNDER MAY
HAVE GIVEN US SOUNDS OF SPRING THIS MORNING WE ARE ANYTHING BUT SPRING
LIKE. MID TO UPPER 30S IS THE RULE FROM THE NY/PA LINE NORTH AT THE
MOMENT AND TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH EVENING.
FOR THE MOST PART WE ARE STILL SEEING JUST RAIN OVER OUR AREA BUT
HINTS OF A CHANGE TO SNOW ARE NOT FAR OFF. WE HAVE HAD A REPORT OF
SOME SNOW MIXING IN AT HORNELL LAST HOUR, AND WITH SNOW AT FULTON,
I SURMISE WE ARE GETTING SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY ATTM. THE
LATEST RUC 850 MB OC LINE, ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPS 36 DEGREES OR
COOLER SEEMS TO BE THE TRANSITION LINE TO AT LEAST A MIX OF SNOW.
THROUGH 0Z I SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. IN PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE ALL SNOW,
DESPITE SURFACE TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BEING IN THE 33-36 RANGE.
BASED ON WEB CAMS IN THE BUFFALO AREA NOW AND SURFACE TEMPS MAINLY
BEING ABOVE FREEZING, I SEE UP TO A SLUSHY INCH THROUGH 0Z MAINLY
ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS CENTRAL NY DOWN THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES. MOST ROADS SHOULD BE PLENTY FINE WITH SUCH WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
WHERE SLIGHTLY COLDER SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALLOW A COATING TO 2
INCHES. ALSO IN THE HILLS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE WE MAY BE CLOSER TO AN
INCH, THAN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE CITY. IN THESE TWO
AREAS, A LIGHT COATING CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON THE ROADS.

OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA, THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE PULLING EAST. WITH THAT IN MIND
EXPECT A GRADUAL RAIN TO SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN ANOTHER LIGHT COATING TO AN INCH AT MOST
TONIGHT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN NY STATE AND INTO THE
CATSKILLS WHERE THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR.

THUNDER CHANCES...UNLIKE EARLIER WHERE WE SAW CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS, OUR THUNDER CHANCES
LATE TODAY WILL BE AHEAD OF THE THERMAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LIMIT
CHANCES TO THE NEPA AND AT THAT, ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER AT BEST IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A BIT
UNSETTLED FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY, ALONG WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN NY STATE AND
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON
SOUTH AND EAST. AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT WILL BE THE TEMPS
THAT WILL BE THE BIG STORY. MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY WILL BE
OUR "WARM" DAY, ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET. TEMPS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 30S BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA/US WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INCLUDED CHC
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL THEN RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
THROUGH EASTERN PA INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. OVER THE NYS
TERMINALS RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WIDESPREAD IFR/BELOW ALT MIN CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NYS TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT, WEAK MIXING AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY LOW MVFR CIGS
EXCEPT FOR IFR CIGS AT KITH/KBGM. ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z. OVERNIGHT LOW MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NW AROUND 5 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 261946
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
346 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING
TONIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN COLD FRIDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
240 PM UPDATE...

A WILD START TO THE DAY WITH THUNDER AND HAIL HERE AT THE OFFICE
AND ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN NY. ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW, WITH THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL FAR SOUTHEAST.

RAIN TO SNOW....A THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND SULLIVAN
COUNTY IS ALLOWING FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE TEMP CHANGES. WE ARE 41 NOW
IN TOWANDA, BUT 56 JUST DOWN THE ROAD IN SCRANTON WITH SOME HINTS
OF SUNSHINE. MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WHILE THUNDER MAY
HAVE GIVEN US SOUNDS OF SPRING THIS MORNING WE ARE ANYTHING BUT SPRING
LIKE. MID TO UPPER 30S IS THE RULE FROM THE NY/PA LINE NORTH AT THE
MOMENT AND TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH EVENING.
FOR THE MOST PART WE ARE STILL SEEING JUST RAIN OVER OUR AREA BUT
HINTS OF A CHANGE TO SNOW ARE NOT FAR OFF. WE HAVE HAD A REPORT OF
SOME SNOW MIXING IN AT HORNELL LAST HOUR, AND WITH SNOW AT FULTON,
I SURMISE WE ARE GETTING SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY ATTM. THE
LATEST RUC 850 MB OC LINE, ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPS 36 DEGREES OR
COOLER SEEMS TO BE THE TRANSITION LINE TO AT LEAST A MIX OF SNOW.
THROUGH 0Z I SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. IN PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE ALL SNOW,
DESPITE SURFACE TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BEING IN THE 33-36 RANGE.
BASED ON WEB CAMS IN THE BUFFALO AREA NOW AND SURFACE TEMPS MAINLY
BEING ABOVE FREEZING, I SEE UP TO A SLUSHY INCH THROUGH 0Z MAINLY
ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS CENTRAL NY DOWN THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES. MOST ROADS SHOULD BE PLENTY FINE WITH SUCH WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
WHERE SLIGHTLY COLDER SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALLOW A COATING TO 2
INCHES. ALSO IN THE HILLS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE WE MAY BE CLOSER TO AN
INCH, THAN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE CITY. IN THESE TWO
AREAS, A LIGHT COATING CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON THE ROADS.

OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA, THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE PULLING EAST. WITH THAT IN MIND
EXPECT A GRADUAL RAIN TO SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN ANOTHER LIGHT COATING TO AN INCH AT MOST
TONIGHT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN NY STATE AND INTO THE
CATSKILLS WHERE THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR.

THUNDER CHANCES...UNLIKE EARLIER WHERE WE SAW CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS, OUR THUNDER CHANCES
LATE TODAY WILL BE AHEAD OF THE THERMAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LIMIT
CHANCES TO THE NEPA AND AT THAT, ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER AT BEST IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A BIT
UNSETTLED FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY, ALONG WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN NY STATE AND
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON
SOUTH AND EAST. AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT WILL BE THE TEMPS
THAT WILL BE THE BIG STORY. MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY WILL BE
OUR "WARM" DAY, ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET. TEMPS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 30S BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA/US WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INCLUDED CHC
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL THEN RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
THROUGH EASTERN PA INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. OVER THE NYS
TERMINALS RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WIDESPREAD IFR/BELOW ALT MIN CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NYS TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT, WEAK MIXING AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY LOW MVFR CIGS
EXCEPT FOR IFR CIGS AT KITH/KBGM. ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z. OVERNIGHT LOW MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NW AROUND 5 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 261902
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
302 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING
TONIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN COLD FRIDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
240 PM UPDATE...

A WILD START TO THE DAY WITH THUNDER AND HAIL HERE AT THE OFFICE
AND ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN NY. ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW, WITH THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL FAR SOUTHEAST.

RAIN TO SNOW....A THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND SULLIVAN
COUNTY IS ALLOWING FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE TEMP CHANGES. WE ARE 41 NOW
IN TOWANDA, BUT 56 JUST DOWN THE ROAD IN SCRANTON WITH SOME HINTS
OF SUNSHINE. MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WHILE THUNDER MAY
HAVE GIVEN US SOUNDS OF SPRING THIS MORNING WE ARE ANYTHING BUT SPRING
LIKE. MID TO UPPER 30S IS THE RULE FROM THE NY/PA LINE NORTH AT THE
MOMENT AND TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH EVENING.
FOR THE MOST PART WE ARE STILL SEEING JUST RAIN OVER OUR AREA BUT
HINTS OF A CHANGE TO SNOW ARE NOT FAR OFF. WE HAVE HAD A REPORT OF
SOME SNOW MIXING IN AT HORNELL LAST HOUR, AND WITH SNOW AT FULTON,
I SURMISE WE ARE GETTING SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY ATTM. THE
LATEST RUC 850 MB OC LINE, ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPS 36 DEGREES OR
COOLER SEEMS TO BE THE TRANSITION LINE TO AT LEAST A MIX OF SNOW.
THROUGH 0Z I SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. IN PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE ALL SNOW,
DESPITE SURFACE TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BEING IN THE 33-36 RANGE.
BASED ON WEB CAMS IN THE BUFFALO AREA NOW AND SURFACE TEMPS MAINLY
BEING ABOVE FREEZING, I SEE UP TO A SLUSHY INCH THROUGH 0Z MAINLY
ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS CENTRAL NY DOWN THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES. MOST ROADS SHOULD BE PLENTY FINE WITH SUCH WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
WHERE SLIGHTLY COLDER SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALLOW A COATING TO 2
INCHES. ALSO IN THE HILLS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE WE MAY BE CLOSER TO AN
INCH, THAN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE CITY. IN THESE TWO
AREAS, A LIGHT COATING CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON THE ROADS.

OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA, THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE PULLING EAST. WITH THAT IN MIND
EXPECT A GRADUAL RAIN TO SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN ANOTHER LIGHT COATING TO AN INCH AT MOST
TONIGHT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN NY STATE AND INTO THE
CATSKILLS WHERE THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR.

THUNDER CHANCES...UNLIKE EARLIER WHERE WE SAW CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS, OUR THUNDER CHANCES
LATE TODAY WILL BE AHEAD OF THE THERMAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LIMIT
CHANCES TO THE NEPA AND AT THAT, ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER AT BEST IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A BIT
UNSETTLED FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY, ALONG WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN NY STATE AND
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON
SOUTH AND EAST. AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT WILL BE THE TEMPS
THAT WILL BE THE BIG STORY. MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY WILL BE
OUR "WARM" DAY, ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET. TEMPS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 30S BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE. ONLY ADDITION TO
DISCUSSION BELOW IS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT WED NGT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. MORE MIXED PRECIP BUT MOST
LOCATIONS RAIN TO SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
THROUGH EASTERN PA INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. OVER THE NYS
TERMINALS RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WIDESPREAD IFR/BELOW ALT MIN CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NYS TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT, WEAK MIXING AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY LOW MVFR CIGS
EXCEPT FOR IFR CIGS AT KITH/KBGM. ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z. OVERNIGHT LOW MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NW AROUND 5 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 261902
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
302 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING
TONIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN COLD FRIDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
240 PM UPDATE...

A WILD START TO THE DAY WITH THUNDER AND HAIL HERE AT THE OFFICE
AND ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN NY. ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW, WITH THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL FAR SOUTHEAST.

RAIN TO SNOW....A THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND SULLIVAN
COUNTY IS ALLOWING FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE TEMP CHANGES. WE ARE 41 NOW
IN TOWANDA, BUT 56 JUST DOWN THE ROAD IN SCRANTON WITH SOME HINTS
OF SUNSHINE. MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WHILE THUNDER MAY
HAVE GIVEN US SOUNDS OF SPRING THIS MORNING WE ARE ANYTHING BUT SPRING
LIKE. MID TO UPPER 30S IS THE RULE FROM THE NY/PA LINE NORTH AT THE
MOMENT AND TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH EVENING.
FOR THE MOST PART WE ARE STILL SEEING JUST RAIN OVER OUR AREA BUT
HINTS OF A CHANGE TO SNOW ARE NOT FAR OFF. WE HAVE HAD A REPORT OF
SOME SNOW MIXING IN AT HORNELL LAST HOUR, AND WITH SNOW AT FULTON,
I SURMISE WE ARE GETTING SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY ATTM. THE
LATEST RUC 850 MB OC LINE, ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPS 36 DEGREES OR
COOLER SEEMS TO BE THE TRANSITION LINE TO AT LEAST A MIX OF SNOW.
THROUGH 0Z I SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. IN PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE ALL SNOW,
DESPITE SURFACE TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BEING IN THE 33-36 RANGE.
BASED ON WEB CAMS IN THE BUFFALO AREA NOW AND SURFACE TEMPS MAINLY
BEING ABOVE FREEZING, I SEE UP TO A SLUSHY INCH THROUGH 0Z MAINLY
ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS CENTRAL NY DOWN THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES. MOST ROADS SHOULD BE PLENTY FINE WITH SUCH WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
WHERE SLIGHTLY COLDER SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALLOW A COATING TO 2
INCHES. ALSO IN THE HILLS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE WE MAY BE CLOSER TO AN
INCH, THAN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE CITY. IN THESE TWO
AREAS, A LIGHT COATING CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON THE ROADS.

OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA, THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE PULLING EAST. WITH THAT IN MIND
EXPECT A GRADUAL RAIN TO SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN ANOTHER LIGHT COATING TO AN INCH AT MOST
TONIGHT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN NY STATE AND INTO THE
CATSKILLS WHERE THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR.

THUNDER CHANCES...UNLIKE EARLIER WHERE WE SAW CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS, OUR THUNDER CHANCES
LATE TODAY WILL BE AHEAD OF THE THERMAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LIMIT
CHANCES TO THE NEPA AND AT THAT, ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER AT BEST IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A BIT
UNSETTLED FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY, ALONG WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN NY STATE AND
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON
SOUTH AND EAST. AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT WILL BE THE TEMPS
THAT WILL BE THE BIG STORY. MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY WILL BE
OUR "WARM" DAY, ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET. TEMPS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 30S BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE. ONLY ADDITION TO
DISCUSSION BELOW IS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT WED NGT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. MORE MIXED PRECIP BUT MOST
LOCATIONS RAIN TO SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
THROUGH EASTERN PA INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. OVER THE NYS
TERMINALS RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WIDESPREAD IFR/BELOW ALT MIN CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NYS TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT, WEAK MIXING AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY LOW MVFR CIGS
EXCEPT FOR IFR CIGS AT KITH/KBGM. ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z. OVERNIGHT LOW MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NW AROUND 5 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 261758
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM MOVING THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL PULL MOISTURE
INTO NY AND PA TODAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER UPSTATE NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT GRIDS TO ADD FREEZING RAIN IN
ISOLATED SPOTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. SURFACE TEMPS AT KELM
AND OTHER LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR JUST BELOW 32. WITH OUR COLD START
TO THE YEAR FELT OUR COLD SURFACE COMBINED WITH SUCH MARGINAL
TEMPS MAY SUPPORT SPOTTY ICE. I ISSUED AN SPS THROUGH 11 AM TO
COVER THIS THREAT. MOST WILL SEE JUST RAIN, BUT NORMALLY COLDER
SPOTS SUCH AS SHADY SPOTS, SECONDARY ROADS, SIDEWALKS, MAY HAVE
SOME ICE. IN ADDITION I WILL ALSO BE ADDING THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING. WE GOT OUR FIRST STRIKE AT 912 AM AND NOW ARE
GETTING MULTIPLE STRIKES JUST SOUTHWEST OF ELMIRA. WILL USE THE
SHOWALTER INDEX AS A GUIDE (VALUES NEAR 0) AS THIS IS THE ONLY
THING I SEEM TO BE ABLE TO GRAB ONTO FOR GUIDANCE. THIS MAY BE
JUST THE START TO A WILD DAY!



215 AM UPDATE... LOWERED TEMPS A BIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE BASED
ON LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE. MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SHARP WARM UP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND
INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF, BEGINNING TO MIX IN WET SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN FA AFTER 20Z. QPF TOTALS THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
BE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD NOT
CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS HYDRO-WISE, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SERN FA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LAPSE RATES
AND K-INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM UPDATE...

POLAR AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA OVERNIGHT, CHANGING THE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS, BUT ON THE HILLS AND IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ABOUT A
10-12:1 SNOW TO H20 RATIO. WITH THIS RATIO IN MIND, CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA, WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS TO AROUND AND INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. DO
NOT FORESEE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY BASED ON THESE AMOUNTS. A BIT
CLOSER TO ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, WHICH
WILL RECEIVE AROUND 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. FRIDAY MAXES ARE
PROGGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHILE SATURDAY LOOKS
UNUSUALLY COLD, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT SYR IS ALREADY RUNNING 7.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH THROUGH THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MARCH. THE DEPARTURES WILL BE
EVEN MORE EXTREME BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE. ONLY ADDITION TO
DISCUSSION BELOW IS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT WED NGT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. MORE MIXED PRECIP BUT MOST
LOCATIONS RAIN TO SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
THROUGH EASTERN PA INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. OVER THE NYS
TERMINALS RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WIDESPREAD IFR/BELOW ALT MIN CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NYS TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT, WEAK MIXING AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY LOW MVFR CIGS
EXCEPT FOR IFR CIGS AT KITH/KBGM. ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z. OVERNIGHT LOW MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NW AROUND 5 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 261758
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM MOVING THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL PULL MOISTURE
INTO NY AND PA TODAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER UPSTATE NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT GRIDS TO ADD FREEZING RAIN IN
ISOLATED SPOTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. SURFACE TEMPS AT KELM
AND OTHER LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR JUST BELOW 32. WITH OUR COLD START
TO THE YEAR FELT OUR COLD SURFACE COMBINED WITH SUCH MARGINAL
TEMPS MAY SUPPORT SPOTTY ICE. I ISSUED AN SPS THROUGH 11 AM TO
COVER THIS THREAT. MOST WILL SEE JUST RAIN, BUT NORMALLY COLDER
SPOTS SUCH AS SHADY SPOTS, SECONDARY ROADS, SIDEWALKS, MAY HAVE
SOME ICE. IN ADDITION I WILL ALSO BE ADDING THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING. WE GOT OUR FIRST STRIKE AT 912 AM AND NOW ARE
GETTING MULTIPLE STRIKES JUST SOUTHWEST OF ELMIRA. WILL USE THE
SHOWALTER INDEX AS A GUIDE (VALUES NEAR 0) AS THIS IS THE ONLY
THING I SEEM TO BE ABLE TO GRAB ONTO FOR GUIDANCE. THIS MAY BE
JUST THE START TO A WILD DAY!



215 AM UPDATE... LOWERED TEMPS A BIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE BASED
ON LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE. MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SHARP WARM UP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND
INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF, BEGINNING TO MIX IN WET SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN FA AFTER 20Z. QPF TOTALS THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
BE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD NOT
CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS HYDRO-WISE, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SERN FA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LAPSE RATES
AND K-INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM UPDATE...

POLAR AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA OVERNIGHT, CHANGING THE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS, BUT ON THE HILLS AND IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ABOUT A
10-12:1 SNOW TO H20 RATIO. WITH THIS RATIO IN MIND, CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA, WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS TO AROUND AND INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. DO
NOT FORESEE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY BASED ON THESE AMOUNTS. A BIT
CLOSER TO ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, WHICH
WILL RECEIVE AROUND 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. FRIDAY MAXES ARE
PROGGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHILE SATURDAY LOOKS
UNUSUALLY COLD, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT SYR IS ALREADY RUNNING 7.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH THROUGH THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MARCH. THE DEPARTURES WILL BE
EVEN MORE EXTREME BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE. ONLY ADDITION TO
DISCUSSION BELOW IS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT WED NGT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. MORE MIXED PRECIP BUT MOST
LOCATIONS RAIN TO SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
THROUGH EASTERN PA INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. OVER THE NYS
TERMINALS RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WIDESPREAD IFR/BELOW ALT MIN CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NYS TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT, WEAK MIXING AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY LOW MVFR CIGS
EXCEPT FOR IFR CIGS AT KITH/KBGM. ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z. OVERNIGHT LOW MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NW AROUND 5 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 261758
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM MOVING THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL PULL MOISTURE
INTO NY AND PA TODAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER UPSTATE NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT GRIDS TO ADD FREEZING RAIN IN
ISOLATED SPOTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. SURFACE TEMPS AT KELM
AND OTHER LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR JUST BELOW 32. WITH OUR COLD START
TO THE YEAR FELT OUR COLD SURFACE COMBINED WITH SUCH MARGINAL
TEMPS MAY SUPPORT SPOTTY ICE. I ISSUED AN SPS THROUGH 11 AM TO
COVER THIS THREAT. MOST WILL SEE JUST RAIN, BUT NORMALLY COLDER
SPOTS SUCH AS SHADY SPOTS, SECONDARY ROADS, SIDEWALKS, MAY HAVE
SOME ICE. IN ADDITION I WILL ALSO BE ADDING THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING. WE GOT OUR FIRST STRIKE AT 912 AM AND NOW ARE
GETTING MULTIPLE STRIKES JUST SOUTHWEST OF ELMIRA. WILL USE THE
SHOWALTER INDEX AS A GUIDE (VALUES NEAR 0) AS THIS IS THE ONLY
THING I SEEM TO BE ABLE TO GRAB ONTO FOR GUIDANCE. THIS MAY BE
JUST THE START TO A WILD DAY!



215 AM UPDATE... LOWERED TEMPS A BIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE BASED
ON LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE. MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SHARP WARM UP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND
INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF, BEGINNING TO MIX IN WET SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN FA AFTER 20Z. QPF TOTALS THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
BE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD NOT
CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS HYDRO-WISE, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SERN FA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LAPSE RATES
AND K-INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM UPDATE...

POLAR AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA OVERNIGHT, CHANGING THE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS, BUT ON THE HILLS AND IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ABOUT A
10-12:1 SNOW TO H20 RATIO. WITH THIS RATIO IN MIND, CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA, WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS TO AROUND AND INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. DO
NOT FORESEE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY BASED ON THESE AMOUNTS. A BIT
CLOSER TO ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, WHICH
WILL RECEIVE AROUND 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. FRIDAY MAXES ARE
PROGGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHILE SATURDAY LOOKS
UNUSUALLY COLD, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT SYR IS ALREADY RUNNING 7.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH THROUGH THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MARCH. THE DEPARTURES WILL BE
EVEN MORE EXTREME BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE. ONLY ADDITION TO
DISCUSSION BELOW IS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT WED NGT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. MORE MIXED PRECIP BUT MOST
LOCATIONS RAIN TO SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
THROUGH EASTERN PA INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. OVER THE NYS
TERMINALS RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WIDESPREAD IFR/BELOW ALT MIN CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NYS TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT, WEAK MIXING AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY LOW MVFR CIGS
EXCEPT FOR IFR CIGS AT KITH/KBGM. ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z. OVERNIGHT LOW MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NW AROUND 5 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 261758
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM MOVING THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL PULL MOISTURE
INTO NY AND PA TODAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER UPSTATE NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT GRIDS TO ADD FREEZING RAIN IN
ISOLATED SPOTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. SURFACE TEMPS AT KELM
AND OTHER LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR JUST BELOW 32. WITH OUR COLD START
TO THE YEAR FELT OUR COLD SURFACE COMBINED WITH SUCH MARGINAL
TEMPS MAY SUPPORT SPOTTY ICE. I ISSUED AN SPS THROUGH 11 AM TO
COVER THIS THREAT. MOST WILL SEE JUST RAIN, BUT NORMALLY COLDER
SPOTS SUCH AS SHADY SPOTS, SECONDARY ROADS, SIDEWALKS, MAY HAVE
SOME ICE. IN ADDITION I WILL ALSO BE ADDING THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING. WE GOT OUR FIRST STRIKE AT 912 AM AND NOW ARE
GETTING MULTIPLE STRIKES JUST SOUTHWEST OF ELMIRA. WILL USE THE
SHOWALTER INDEX AS A GUIDE (VALUES NEAR 0) AS THIS IS THE ONLY
THING I SEEM TO BE ABLE TO GRAB ONTO FOR GUIDANCE. THIS MAY BE
JUST THE START TO A WILD DAY!



215 AM UPDATE... LOWERED TEMPS A BIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE BASED
ON LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE. MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SHARP WARM UP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND
INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF, BEGINNING TO MIX IN WET SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN FA AFTER 20Z. QPF TOTALS THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
BE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD NOT
CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS HYDRO-WISE, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SERN FA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LAPSE RATES
AND K-INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM UPDATE...

POLAR AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA OVERNIGHT, CHANGING THE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS, BUT ON THE HILLS AND IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ABOUT A
10-12:1 SNOW TO H20 RATIO. WITH THIS RATIO IN MIND, CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA, WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS TO AROUND AND INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. DO
NOT FORESEE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY BASED ON THESE AMOUNTS. A BIT
CLOSER TO ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, WHICH
WILL RECEIVE AROUND 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. FRIDAY MAXES ARE
PROGGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHILE SATURDAY LOOKS
UNUSUALLY COLD, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT SYR IS ALREADY RUNNING 7.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH THROUGH THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MARCH. THE DEPARTURES WILL BE
EVEN MORE EXTREME BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE. ONLY ADDITION TO
DISCUSSION BELOW IS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT WED NGT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. MORE MIXED PRECIP BUT MOST
LOCATIONS RAIN TO SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
THROUGH EASTERN PA INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. OVER THE NYS
TERMINALS RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WIDESPREAD IFR/BELOW ALT MIN CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NYS TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT, WEAK MIXING AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY LOW MVFR CIGS
EXCEPT FOR IFR CIGS AT KITH/KBGM. ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z. OVERNIGHT LOW MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NW AROUND 5 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 261333
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
933 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM MOVING THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL PULL MOISTURE
INTO NY AND PA TODAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER UPSTATE NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT GRIDS TO ADD FREEZING RAIN IN
ISOLATED SPOTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. SURFACE TEMPS AT KELM
AND OTHER LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR JUST BELOW 32. WITH OUR COLD START
TO THE YEAR FELT OUR COLD SURFACE COMBINED WITH SUCH MARGINAL
TEMPS MAY SUPPORT SPOTTY ICE. I ISSUED AN SPS THROUGH 11 AM TO
COVER THIS THREAT. MOST WILL SEE JUST RAIN, BUT NORMALLY COLDER
SPOTS SUCH AS SHADY SPOTS, SECONDARY ROADS, SIDEWALKS, MAY HAVE
SOME ICE. IN ADDITION I WILL ALSO BE ADDING THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING. WE GOT OUR FIRST STRIKE AT 912 AM AND NOW ARE
GETTING MULTIPLE STRIKES JUST SOUTHWEST OF ELMIRA. WILL USE THE
SHOWALTER INDEX AS A GUIDE (VALUES NEAR 0) AS THIS IS THE ONLY
THING I SEEM TO BE ABLE TO GRAB ONTO FOR GUIDANCE. THIS MAY BE
JUST THE START TO A WILD DAY!



215 AM UPDATE... LOWERED TEMPS A BIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE BASED
ON LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE. MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SHARP WARM UP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND
INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF, BEGINNING TO MIX IN WET SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN FA AFTER 20Z. QPF TOTALS THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
BE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD NOT
CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS HYDRO-WISE, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SERN FA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LAPSE RATES
AND K-INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM UPDATE...

POLAR AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA OVERNIGHT, CHANGING THE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS, BUT ON THE HILLS AND IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ABOUT A
10-12:1 SNOW TO H20 RATIO. WITH THIS RATIO IN MIND, CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA, WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS TO AROUND AND INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. DO
NOT FORESEE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY BASED ON THESE AMOUNTS. A BIT
CLOSER TO ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, WHICH
WILL RECEIVE AROUND 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. FRIDAY MAXES ARE
PROGGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHILE SATURDAY LOOKS
UNUSUALLY COLD, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT SYR IS ALREADY RUNNING 7.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH THROUGH THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MARCH. THE DEPARTURES WILL BE
EVEN MORE EXTREME BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE. ONLY ADDITION TO
DISCUSSION BELOW IS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT WED NGT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. MORE MIXED PRECIP BUT MOST
LOCATIONS RAIN TO SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

MVFR CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN FROM WEST. MVFR CIGS AT SYR AND RME.
MVFR VALLEY FOG AT ELM AND AVP. ITH/BGM VFR FOR NOW.

RAIN SHOWERS COME IN BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z IN NY AND CLOSER TO 18Z
AT AVP. SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THEM. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE DAY AND EARLY EVE FROM NW TO SE.
PRECIP CHANGES FROM RAIN TO SNOW. VSBYS AND CIGS WILL FALL
FURTHER. MOST VSBYS AND CIGS IFR IN SNOW DURING THE EVE IN NY. AT
AVP IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO CHANGE TO SNOW SO MOSTLY MVFR THERE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT BACK TO MVFR ESPECIALLY AT AVP.

SOUTH WINDS AT 5 KTS THIS MORNING. AT AVP 5 TO 10 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTN. IN NY FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO NW STARTING AT
17Z AT SYR FINISHING AT BGM 22Z THEN AVP 03Z.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 261333
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
933 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM MOVING THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL PULL MOISTURE
INTO NY AND PA TODAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER UPSTATE NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT GRIDS TO ADD FREEZING RAIN IN
ISOLATED SPOTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. SURFACE TEMPS AT KELM
AND OTHER LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR JUST BELOW 32. WITH OUR COLD START
TO THE YEAR FELT OUR COLD SURFACE COMBINED WITH SUCH MARGINAL
TEMPS MAY SUPPORT SPOTTY ICE. I ISSUED AN SPS THROUGH 11 AM TO
COVER THIS THREAT. MOST WILL SEE JUST RAIN, BUT NORMALLY COLDER
SPOTS SUCH AS SHADY SPOTS, SECONDARY ROADS, SIDEWALKS, MAY HAVE
SOME ICE. IN ADDITION I WILL ALSO BE ADDING THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING. WE GOT OUR FIRST STRIKE AT 912 AM AND NOW ARE
GETTING MULTIPLE STRIKES JUST SOUTHWEST OF ELMIRA. WILL USE THE
SHOWALTER INDEX AS A GUIDE (VALUES NEAR 0) AS THIS IS THE ONLY
THING I SEEM TO BE ABLE TO GRAB ONTO FOR GUIDANCE. THIS MAY BE
JUST THE START TO A WILD DAY!



215 AM UPDATE... LOWERED TEMPS A BIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE BASED
ON LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE. MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SHARP WARM UP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND
INTO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF, BEGINNING TO MIX IN WET SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN FA AFTER 20Z. QPF TOTALS THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
BE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD NOT
CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS HYDRO-WISE, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SERN FA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LAPSE RATES
AND K-INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM UPDATE...

POLAR AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA OVERNIGHT, CHANGING THE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS, BUT ON THE HILLS AND IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ABOUT A
10-12:1 SNOW TO H20 RATIO. WITH THIS RATIO IN MIND, CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA, WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS TO AROUND AND INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. DO
NOT FORESEE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY BASED ON THESE AMOUNTS. A BIT
CLOSER TO ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, WHICH
WILL RECEIVE AROUND 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. FRIDAY MAXES ARE
PROGGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHILE SATURDAY LOOKS
UNUSUALLY COLD, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT SYR IS ALREADY RUNNING 7.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH THROUGH THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MARCH. THE DEPARTURES WILL BE
EVEN MORE EXTREME BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE. ONLY ADDITION TO
DISCUSSION BELOW IS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT WED NGT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. MORE MIXED PRECIP BUT MOST
LOCATIONS RAIN TO SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

MVFR CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN FROM WEST. MVFR CIGS AT SYR AND RME.
MVFR VALLEY FOG AT ELM AND AVP. ITH/BGM VFR FOR NOW.

RAIN SHOWERS COME IN BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z IN NY AND CLOSER TO 18Z
AT AVP. SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THEM. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE DAY AND EARLY EVE FROM NW TO SE.
PRECIP CHANGES FROM RAIN TO SNOW. VSBYS AND CIGS WILL FALL
FURTHER. MOST VSBYS AND CIGS IFR IN SNOW DURING THE EVE IN NY. AT
AVP IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO CHANGE TO SNOW SO MOSTLY MVFR THERE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT BACK TO MVFR ESPECIALLY AT AVP.

SOUTH WINDS AT 5 KTS THIS MORNING. AT AVP 5 TO 10 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTN. IN NY FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO NW STARTING AT
17Z AT SYR FINISHING AT BGM 22Z THEN AVP 03Z.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 261113
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
713 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM MOVING THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL PULL MOISTURE
INTO NY AND PA TODAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER UPSTATE NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
215 AM UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE BASED ON LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SHARP WARM UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF, BEGINNING TO MIX IN WET SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN FA AFTER 20Z. QPF TOTALS THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
BE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD NOT
CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS HYDRO-WISE, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SERN FA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LAPSE RATES
AND K-INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM UPDATE...

POLAR AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA OVERNIGHT, CHANGING THE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS, BUT ON THE HILLS AND IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ABOUT A
10-12:1 SNOW TO H20 RATIO. WITH THIS RATIO IN MIND, CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA, WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS TO AROUND AND INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. DO
NOT FORESEE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY BASED ON THESE AMOUNTS. A BIT
CLOSER TO ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, WHICH
WILL RECEIVE AROUND 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. FRIDAY MAXES ARE
PROGGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHILE SATURDAY LOOKS
UNUSUALLY COLD, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT SYR IS ALREADY RUNNING 7.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH THROUGH THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MARCH. THE DEPARTURES WILL BE
EVEN MORE EXTREME BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE. ONLY ADDITION TO
DISCUSSION BELOW IS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT WED NGT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. MORE MIXED PRECIP BUT MOST
LOCATIONS RAIN TO SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

MVFR CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN FROM WEST. MVFR CIGS AT SYR AND RME.
MVFR VALLEY FOG AT ELM AND AVP. ITH/BGM VFR FOR NOW.

RAIN SHOWERS COME IN BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z IN NY AND CLOSER TO 18Z
AT AVP. SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THEM. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE DAY AND EARLY EVE FROM NW TO SE.
PRECIP CHANGES FROM RAIN TO SNOW. VSBYS AND CIGS WILL FALL
FURTHER. MOST VSBYS AND CIGS IFR IN SNOW DURING THE EVE IN NY. AT
AVP IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO CHANGE TO SNOW SO MOSTLY MVFR THERE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT BACK TO MVFR ESPECIALLY AT AVP.

SOUTH WINDS AT 5 KTS THIS MORNING. AT AVP 5 TO 10 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTN. IN NY FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO NW STARTING AT
17Z AT SYR FINISHING AT BGM 22Z THEN AVP 03Z.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 261113
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
713 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM MOVING THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL PULL MOISTURE
INTO NY AND PA TODAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER UPSTATE NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
215 AM UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE BASED ON LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SHARP WARM UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF, BEGINNING TO MIX IN WET SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN FA AFTER 20Z. QPF TOTALS THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
BE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD NOT
CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS HYDRO-WISE, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SERN FA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LAPSE RATES
AND K-INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM UPDATE...

POLAR AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA OVERNIGHT, CHANGING THE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS, BUT ON THE HILLS AND IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ABOUT A
10-12:1 SNOW TO H20 RATIO. WITH THIS RATIO IN MIND, CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA, WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS TO AROUND AND INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. DO
NOT FORESEE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY BASED ON THESE AMOUNTS. A BIT
CLOSER TO ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, WHICH
WILL RECEIVE AROUND 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. FRIDAY MAXES ARE
PROGGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHILE SATURDAY LOOKS
UNUSUALLY COLD, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT SYR IS ALREADY RUNNING 7.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH THROUGH THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MARCH. THE DEPARTURES WILL BE
EVEN MORE EXTREME BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE. ONLY ADDITION TO
DISCUSSION BELOW IS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT WED NGT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. MORE MIXED PRECIP BUT MOST
LOCATIONS RAIN TO SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

MVFR CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN FROM WEST. MVFR CIGS AT SYR AND RME.
MVFR VALLEY FOG AT ELM AND AVP. ITH/BGM VFR FOR NOW.

RAIN SHOWERS COME IN BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z IN NY AND CLOSER TO 18Z
AT AVP. SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THEM. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE DAY AND EARLY EVE FROM NW TO SE.
PRECIP CHANGES FROM RAIN TO SNOW. VSBYS AND CIGS WILL FALL
FURTHER. MOST VSBYS AND CIGS IFR IN SNOW DURING THE EVE IN NY. AT
AVP IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO CHANGE TO SNOW SO MOSTLY MVFR THERE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT BACK TO MVFR ESPECIALLY AT AVP.

SOUTH WINDS AT 5 KTS THIS MORNING. AT AVP 5 TO 10 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTN. IN NY FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO NW STARTING AT
17Z AT SYR FINISHING AT BGM 22Z THEN AVP 03Z.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 261113
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
713 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM MOVING THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL PULL MOISTURE
INTO NY AND PA TODAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER UPSTATE NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
215 AM UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE BASED ON LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SHARP WARM UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF, BEGINNING TO MIX IN WET SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN FA AFTER 20Z. QPF TOTALS THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
BE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD NOT
CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS HYDRO-WISE, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SERN FA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LAPSE RATES
AND K-INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM UPDATE...

POLAR AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA OVERNIGHT, CHANGING THE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS, BUT ON THE HILLS AND IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ABOUT A
10-12:1 SNOW TO H20 RATIO. WITH THIS RATIO IN MIND, CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA, WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS TO AROUND AND INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. DO
NOT FORESEE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY BASED ON THESE AMOUNTS. A BIT
CLOSER TO ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, WHICH
WILL RECEIVE AROUND 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. FRIDAY MAXES ARE
PROGGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHILE SATURDAY LOOKS
UNUSUALLY COLD, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT SYR IS ALREADY RUNNING 7.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH THROUGH THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MARCH. THE DEPARTURES WILL BE
EVEN MORE EXTREME BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE. ONLY ADDITION TO
DISCUSSION BELOW IS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT WED NGT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. MORE MIXED PRECIP BUT MOST
LOCATIONS RAIN TO SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

MVFR CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN FROM WEST. MVFR CIGS AT SYR AND RME.
MVFR VALLEY FOG AT ELM AND AVP. ITH/BGM VFR FOR NOW.

RAIN SHOWERS COME IN BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z IN NY AND CLOSER TO 18Z
AT AVP. SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THEM. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE DAY AND EARLY EVE FROM NW TO SE.
PRECIP CHANGES FROM RAIN TO SNOW. VSBYS AND CIGS WILL FALL
FURTHER. MOST VSBYS AND CIGS IFR IN SNOW DURING THE EVE IN NY. AT
AVP IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO CHANGE TO SNOW SO MOSTLY MVFR THERE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT BACK TO MVFR ESPECIALLY AT AVP.

SOUTH WINDS AT 5 KTS THIS MORNING. AT AVP 5 TO 10 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTN. IN NY FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO NW STARTING AT
17Z AT SYR FINISHING AT BGM 22Z THEN AVP 03Z.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 261113
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
713 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM MOVING THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL PULL MOISTURE
INTO NY AND PA TODAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER UPSTATE NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
215 AM UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE BASED ON LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SHARP WARM UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF, BEGINNING TO MIX IN WET SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN FA AFTER 20Z. QPF TOTALS THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
BE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD NOT
CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS HYDRO-WISE, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SERN FA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LAPSE RATES
AND K-INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM UPDATE...

POLAR AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA OVERNIGHT, CHANGING THE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS, BUT ON THE HILLS AND IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ABOUT A
10-12:1 SNOW TO H20 RATIO. WITH THIS RATIO IN MIND, CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA, WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS TO AROUND AND INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. DO
NOT FORESEE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY BASED ON THESE AMOUNTS. A BIT
CLOSER TO ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, WHICH
WILL RECEIVE AROUND 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. FRIDAY MAXES ARE
PROGGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHILE SATURDAY LOOKS
UNUSUALLY COLD, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT SYR IS ALREADY RUNNING 7.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH THROUGH THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MARCH. THE DEPARTURES WILL BE
EVEN MORE EXTREME BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE. ONLY ADDITION TO
DISCUSSION BELOW IS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT WED NGT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. MORE MIXED PRECIP BUT MOST
LOCATIONS RAIN TO SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

MVFR CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN FROM WEST. MVFR CIGS AT SYR AND RME.
MVFR VALLEY FOG AT ELM AND AVP. ITH/BGM VFR FOR NOW.

RAIN SHOWERS COME IN BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z IN NY AND CLOSER TO 18Z
AT AVP. SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THEM. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE DAY AND EARLY EVE FROM NW TO SE.
PRECIP CHANGES FROM RAIN TO SNOW. VSBYS AND CIGS WILL FALL
FURTHER. MOST VSBYS AND CIGS IFR IN SNOW DURING THE EVE IN NY. AT
AVP IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO CHANGE TO SNOW SO MOSTLY MVFR THERE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT BACK TO MVFR ESPECIALLY AT AVP.

SOUTH WINDS AT 5 KTS THIS MORNING. AT AVP 5 TO 10 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTN. IN NY FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO NW STARTING AT
17Z AT SYR FINISHING AT BGM 22Z THEN AVP 03Z.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 260729
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
329 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM MOVING THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL PULL MOISTURE
INTO NY AND PA TODAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER UPSTATE NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
215 AM UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE BASED ON LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SHARP WARM UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF, BEGINNING TO MIX IN WET SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN FA AFTER 20Z. QPF TOTALS THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
BE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD NOT
CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS HYDRO-WISE, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SERN FA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LAPSE RATES
AND K-INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM UPDATE...

POLAR AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA OVERNIGHT, CHANGING THE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS, BUT ON THE HILLS AND IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ABOUT A
10-12:1 SNOW TO H20 RATIO. WITH THIS RATIO IN MIND, CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA, WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS TO AROUND AND INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. DO
NOT FORESEE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY BASED ON THESE AMOUNTS. A BIT
CLOSER TO ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, WHICH
WILL RECEIVE AROUND 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. FRIDAY MAXES ARE
PROGGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHILE SATURDAY LOOKS
UNUSUALLY COLD, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT SYR IS ALREADY RUNNING 7.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH THROUGH THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MARCH. THE DEPARTURES WILL BE
EVEN MORE EXTREME BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE. ONLY ADDITION TO
DISCUSSION BELOW IS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT WED NGT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. MORE MIXED PRECIP BUT MOST
LOCATIONS RAIN TO SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED AND NOW VALLEY FOG IS FORMING AT KELM. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS STILL JUST TO
THE SE AND NW WITH FOG IN THE ALLEGANIES. GUIDANCE HAS MOSTLY MVFR
CIGS WHICH IT WAS. EARLY THIS MORNING MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO
AVP AND BGM AND MAYBE ITH.

MORE CONFIDENCE MIDDAY WHEN RAIN SHOWERS COME IN BETWEEN 14 AND
15Z IN NY AND CLOSER TO 18Z AT AVP. SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WITH THEM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE DAY AND
EARLY EVE FROM NW TO SE. PRECIP CHANGES FROM RAIN TO SNOW. VSBYS
AND CIGS WILL FALL FURTHER. MOST VSBYS AND CIGS IFR IN SNOW DURING
THE EVE IN NY. AT AVP IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO CHANGE TO SNOW SO
MOSTLY MVFR THERE.

SOUTH WINDS AT 5 KTS THIS MORNING. AT AVP 5 TO 10 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTN. IN NY FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO NW STARTING AT
17Z AT SYR FINISHING AT BGM 22Z THEN AVP 03Z.

.OUTLOOK...

THU OVERNIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 260729
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
329 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM MOVING THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL PULL MOISTURE
INTO NY AND PA TODAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER UPSTATE NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
215 AM UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE BASED ON LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SHARP WARM UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF, BEGINNING TO MIX IN WET SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN FA AFTER 20Z. QPF TOTALS THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
BE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD NOT
CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS HYDRO-WISE, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SERN FA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LAPSE RATES
AND K-INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM UPDATE...

POLAR AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA OVERNIGHT, CHANGING THE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS, BUT ON THE HILLS AND IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ABOUT A
10-12:1 SNOW TO H20 RATIO. WITH THIS RATIO IN MIND, CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA, WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS TO AROUND AND INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. DO
NOT FORESEE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY BASED ON THESE AMOUNTS. A BIT
CLOSER TO ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, WHICH
WILL RECEIVE AROUND 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. FRIDAY MAXES ARE
PROGGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHILE SATURDAY LOOKS
UNUSUALLY COLD, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT SYR IS ALREADY RUNNING 7.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH THROUGH THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MARCH. THE DEPARTURES WILL BE
EVEN MORE EXTREME BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE. ONLY ADDITION TO
DISCUSSION BELOW IS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT WED NGT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. MORE MIXED PRECIP BUT MOST
LOCATIONS RAIN TO SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED AND NOW VALLEY FOG IS FORMING AT KELM. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS STILL JUST TO
THE SE AND NW WITH FOG IN THE ALLEGANIES. GUIDANCE HAS MOSTLY MVFR
CIGS WHICH IT WAS. EARLY THIS MORNING MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO
AVP AND BGM AND MAYBE ITH.

MORE CONFIDENCE MIDDAY WHEN RAIN SHOWERS COME IN BETWEEN 14 AND
15Z IN NY AND CLOSER TO 18Z AT AVP. SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WITH THEM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE DAY AND
EARLY EVE FROM NW TO SE. PRECIP CHANGES FROM RAIN TO SNOW. VSBYS
AND CIGS WILL FALL FURTHER. MOST VSBYS AND CIGS IFR IN SNOW DURING
THE EVE IN NY. AT AVP IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO CHANGE TO SNOW SO
MOSTLY MVFR THERE.

SOUTH WINDS AT 5 KTS THIS MORNING. AT AVP 5 TO 10 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTN. IN NY FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO NW STARTING AT
17Z AT SYR FINISHING AT BGM 22Z THEN AVP 03Z.

.OUTLOOK...

THU OVERNIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 260729
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
329 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM MOVING THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL PULL MOISTURE
INTO NY AND PA TODAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER UPSTATE NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
215 AM UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE BASED ON LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SHARP WARM UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF, BEGINNING TO MIX IN WET SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN FA AFTER 20Z. QPF TOTALS THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
BE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD NOT
CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS HYDRO-WISE, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SERN FA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LAPSE RATES
AND K-INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM UPDATE...

POLAR AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA OVERNIGHT, CHANGING THE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS, BUT ON THE HILLS AND IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ABOUT A
10-12:1 SNOW TO H20 RATIO. WITH THIS RATIO IN MIND, CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA, WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS TO AROUND AND INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. DO
NOT FORESEE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY BASED ON THESE AMOUNTS. A BIT
CLOSER TO ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, WHICH
WILL RECEIVE AROUND 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. FRIDAY MAXES ARE
PROGGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHILE SATURDAY LOOKS
UNUSUALLY COLD, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT SYR IS ALREADY RUNNING 7.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH THROUGH THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MARCH. THE DEPARTURES WILL BE
EVEN MORE EXTREME BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE. ONLY ADDITION TO
DISCUSSION BELOW IS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT WED NGT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. MORE MIXED PRECIP BUT MOST
LOCATIONS RAIN TO SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED AND NOW VALLEY FOG IS FORMING AT KELM. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS STILL JUST TO
THE SE AND NW WITH FOG IN THE ALLEGANIES. GUIDANCE HAS MOSTLY MVFR
CIGS WHICH IT WAS. EARLY THIS MORNING MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO
AVP AND BGM AND MAYBE ITH.

MORE CONFIDENCE MIDDAY WHEN RAIN SHOWERS COME IN BETWEEN 14 AND
15Z IN NY AND CLOSER TO 18Z AT AVP. SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WITH THEM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE DAY AND
EARLY EVE FROM NW TO SE. PRECIP CHANGES FROM RAIN TO SNOW. VSBYS
AND CIGS WILL FALL FURTHER. MOST VSBYS AND CIGS IFR IN SNOW DURING
THE EVE IN NY. AT AVP IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO CHANGE TO SNOW SO
MOSTLY MVFR THERE.

SOUTH WINDS AT 5 KTS THIS MORNING. AT AVP 5 TO 10 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTN. IN NY FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO NW STARTING AT
17Z AT SYR FINISHING AT BGM 22Z THEN AVP 03Z.

.OUTLOOK...

THU OVERNIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 260729
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
329 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM MOVING THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL PULL MOISTURE
INTO NY AND PA TODAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER UPSTATE NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
215 AM UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE BASED ON LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SHARP WARM UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF, BEGINNING TO MIX IN WET SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN FA AFTER 20Z. QPF TOTALS THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
BE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD NOT
CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS HYDRO-WISE, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SERN FA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LAPSE RATES
AND K-INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM UPDATE...

POLAR AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA OVERNIGHT, CHANGING THE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS, BUT ON THE HILLS AND IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ABOUT A
10-12:1 SNOW TO H20 RATIO. WITH THIS RATIO IN MIND, CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA, WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS TO AROUND AND INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. DO
NOT FORESEE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY BASED ON THESE AMOUNTS. A BIT
CLOSER TO ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, WHICH
WILL RECEIVE AROUND 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. FRIDAY MAXES ARE
PROGGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHILE SATURDAY LOOKS
UNUSUALLY COLD, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT SYR IS ALREADY RUNNING 7.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH THROUGH THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MARCH. THE DEPARTURES WILL BE
EVEN MORE EXTREME BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE. ONLY ADDITION TO
DISCUSSION BELOW IS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT WED NGT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. MORE MIXED PRECIP BUT MOST
LOCATIONS RAIN TO SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED AND NOW VALLEY FOG IS FORMING AT KELM. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS STILL JUST TO
THE SE AND NW WITH FOG IN THE ALLEGANIES. GUIDANCE HAS MOSTLY MVFR
CIGS WHICH IT WAS. EARLY THIS MORNING MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO
AVP AND BGM AND MAYBE ITH.

MORE CONFIDENCE MIDDAY WHEN RAIN SHOWERS COME IN BETWEEN 14 AND
15Z IN NY AND CLOSER TO 18Z AT AVP. SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WITH THEM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE DAY AND
EARLY EVE FROM NW TO SE. PRECIP CHANGES FROM RAIN TO SNOW. VSBYS
AND CIGS WILL FALL FURTHER. MOST VSBYS AND CIGS IFR IN SNOW DURING
THE EVE IN NY. AT AVP IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO CHANGE TO SNOW SO
MOSTLY MVFR THERE.

SOUTH WINDS AT 5 KTS THIS MORNING. AT AVP 5 TO 10 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTN. IN NY FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO NW STARTING AT
17Z AT SYR FINISHING AT BGM 22Z THEN AVP 03Z.

.OUTLOOK...

THU OVERNIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 260713
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
313 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM MOVING THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL PULL MOISTURE
INTO NY AND PA TODAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER UPSTATE NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
215 AM UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE BASED ON LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SHARP WARM UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF, BEGINNING TO MIX IN WET SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN FA AFTER 20Z. QPF TOTALS THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
BE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD NOT
CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS HYDRO-WISE, AS A LOT OF SNOW MELT HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED OVER THE PAST WEEK.

INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SERN FA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LAPSE RATES
AND K-INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM UPDATE...

POLAR AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA OVERNIGHT, CHANGING THE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS, BUT ON THE HILLS AND IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ABOUT A
10-12:1 SNOW TO H20 RATIO. WITH THIS RATIO IN MIND, CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA, WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS TO AROUND AND INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. DO
NOT FORESEE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY BASED ON THESE AMOUNTS.

THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. FRIDAY MAXES ARE
PROGGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHILE SATURDAY LOOKS
UNUSUALLY COLD, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT SYR IS ALREADY RUNNING 7.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH THROUGH THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MARCH. THE DEPARTURES WILL BE
EVEN MORE EXTREME BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE. ONLY ADDITION TO
DISCUSSION BELOW IS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT WED NGT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. MORE MIXED PRECIP BUT MOST
LOCATIONS RAIN TO SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED AND NOW VALLEY FOG IS FORMING AT KELM. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS STILL JUST TO
THE SE AND NW WITH FOG IN THE ALLEGANIES. GUIDANCE HAS MOSTLY MVFR
CIGS WHICH IT WAS. EARLY THIS MORNING MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO
AVP AND BGM AND MAYBE ITH.

MORE CONFIDENCE MIDDAY WHEN RAIN SHOWERS COME IN BETWEEN 14 AND
15Z IN NY AND CLOSER TO 18Z AT AVP. SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WITH THEM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE DAY AND
EARLY EVE FROM NW TO SE. PRECIP CHANGES FROM RAIN TO SNOW. VSBYS
AND CIGS WILL FALL FURTHER. MOST VSBYS AND CIGS IFR IN SNOW DURING
THE EVE IN NY. AT AVP IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO CHANGE TO SNOW SO
MOSTLY MVFR THERE.

SOUTH WINDS AT 5 KTS THIS MORNING. AT AVP 5 TO 10 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTN. IN NY FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO NW STARTING AT
17Z AT SYR FINISHING AT BGM 22Z THEN AVP 03Z.

.OUTLOOK...

THU OVERNIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 260713
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
313 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM MOVING THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL PULL MOISTURE
INTO NY AND PA TODAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER UPSTATE NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
215 AM UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE BASED ON LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SHARP WARM UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF, BEGINNING TO MIX IN WET SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN FA AFTER 20Z. QPF TOTALS THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
BE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD NOT
CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS HYDRO-WISE, AS A LOT OF SNOW MELT HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED OVER THE PAST WEEK.

INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SERN FA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LAPSE RATES
AND K-INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM UPDATE...

POLAR AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA OVERNIGHT, CHANGING THE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS, BUT ON THE HILLS AND IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ABOUT A
10-12:1 SNOW TO H20 RATIO. WITH THIS RATIO IN MIND, CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA, WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS TO AROUND AND INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. DO
NOT FORESEE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY BASED ON THESE AMOUNTS.

THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. FRIDAY MAXES ARE
PROGGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHILE SATURDAY LOOKS
UNUSUALLY COLD, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT SYR IS ALREADY RUNNING 7.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH THROUGH THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MARCH. THE DEPARTURES WILL BE
EVEN MORE EXTREME BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE. ONLY ADDITION TO
DISCUSSION BELOW IS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT WED NGT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. MORE MIXED PRECIP BUT MOST
LOCATIONS RAIN TO SNOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED AND NOW VALLEY FOG IS FORMING AT KELM. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS STILL JUST TO
THE SE AND NW WITH FOG IN THE ALLEGANIES. GUIDANCE HAS MOSTLY MVFR
CIGS WHICH IT WAS. EARLY THIS MORNING MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO
AVP AND BGM AND MAYBE ITH.

MORE CONFIDENCE MIDDAY WHEN RAIN SHOWERS COME IN BETWEEN 14 AND
15Z IN NY AND CLOSER TO 18Z AT AVP. SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WITH THEM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE DAY AND
EARLY EVE FROM NW TO SE. PRECIP CHANGES FROM RAIN TO SNOW. VSBYS
AND CIGS WILL FALL FURTHER. MOST VSBYS AND CIGS IFR IN SNOW DURING
THE EVE IN NY. AT AVP IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO CHANGE TO SNOW SO
MOSTLY MVFR THERE.

SOUTH WINDS AT 5 KTS THIS MORNING. AT AVP 5 TO 10 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTN. IN NY FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO NW STARTING AT
17Z AT SYR FINISHING AT BGM 22Z THEN AVP 03Z.

.OUTLOOK...

THU OVERNIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 260630
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
230 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM MOVING THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL PULL MOISTURE
INTO NY AND PA TODAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER UPSTATE NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
215 AM UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE BASED ON LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SHARP WARM UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF, BEGINNING TO MIX IN WET SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN FA AFTER 20Z. QPF TOTALS THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
BE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD NOT
CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS HYDRO-WISE, AS A LOT OF SNOW MELT HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED OVER THE PAST WEEK.

INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SERN FA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LAPSE RATES
AND K-INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM UPDATE...

POLAR AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA OVERNIGHT, CHANGING THE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS, BUT ON THE HILLS AND IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ABOUT A
10-12:1 SNOW TO H20 RATIO. WITH THIS RATIO IN MIND, CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA, WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS TO AROUND AND INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. DO
NOT FORESEE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY BASED ON THESE AMOUNTS.

THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. FRIDAY MAXES ARE
PROGGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHILE SATURDAY LOOKS
UNUSUALLY COLD, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT SYR IS ALREADY RUNNING 7.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH THROUGH THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MARCH. THE DEPARTURES WILL BE
EVEN MORE EXTREME BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS FROM ADVANCING WARM FRONT HAVE PUSHED OUT OF THE REGION
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL. FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT EXCEPT TO BGM... WHERE THEY COULD SEE
LOW END IFR CIGS. NOT CONFIDENT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT... THUS KEPT OUT OF TAF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR.
SOME SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

LOW LVL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KELM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT... THEN VARIABLE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 260630
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
230 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM MOVING THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL PULL MOISTURE
INTO NY AND PA TODAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER UPSTATE NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
215 AM UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE BASED ON LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SHARP WARM UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF, BEGINNING TO MIX IN WET SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN FA AFTER 20Z. QPF TOTALS THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
BE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD NOT
CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS HYDRO-WISE, AS A LOT OF SNOW MELT HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED OVER THE PAST WEEK.

INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SERN FA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LAPSE RATES
AND K-INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM UPDATE...

POLAR AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA OVERNIGHT, CHANGING THE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS, BUT ON THE HILLS AND IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ABOUT A
10-12:1 SNOW TO H20 RATIO. WITH THIS RATIO IN MIND, CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA, WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS TO AROUND AND INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. DO
NOT FORESEE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY BASED ON THESE AMOUNTS.

THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. FRIDAY MAXES ARE
PROGGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHILE SATURDAY LOOKS
UNUSUALLY COLD, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT SYR IS ALREADY RUNNING 7.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH THROUGH THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MARCH. THE DEPARTURES WILL BE
EVEN MORE EXTREME BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS FROM ADVANCING WARM FRONT HAVE PUSHED OUT OF THE REGION
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL. FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT EXCEPT TO BGM... WHERE THEY COULD SEE
LOW END IFR CIGS. NOT CONFIDENT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT... THUS KEPT OUT OF TAF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR.
SOME SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

LOW LVL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KELM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT... THEN VARIABLE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 260630
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
230 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM MOVING THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL PULL MOISTURE
INTO NY AND PA TODAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER UPSTATE NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
215 AM UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE BASED ON LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SHARP WARM UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF, BEGINNING TO MIX IN WET SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN FA AFTER 20Z. QPF TOTALS THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
BE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD NOT
CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS HYDRO-WISE, AS A LOT OF SNOW MELT HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED OVER THE PAST WEEK.

INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SERN FA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LAPSE RATES
AND K-INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM UPDATE...

POLAR AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA OVERNIGHT, CHANGING THE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS, BUT ON THE HILLS AND IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ABOUT A
10-12:1 SNOW TO H20 RATIO. WITH THIS RATIO IN MIND, CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA, WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS TO AROUND AND INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. DO
NOT FORESEE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY BASED ON THESE AMOUNTS.

THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. FRIDAY MAXES ARE
PROGGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHILE SATURDAY LOOKS
UNUSUALLY COLD, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT SYR IS ALREADY RUNNING 7.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH THROUGH THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MARCH. THE DEPARTURES WILL BE
EVEN MORE EXTREME BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS FROM ADVANCING WARM FRONT HAVE PUSHED OUT OF THE REGION
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL. FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT EXCEPT TO BGM... WHERE THEY COULD SEE
LOW END IFR CIGS. NOT CONFIDENT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT... THUS KEPT OUT OF TAF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR.
SOME SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

LOW LVL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KELM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT... THEN VARIABLE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 260630
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
230 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM MOVING THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL PULL MOISTURE
INTO NY AND PA TODAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER UPSTATE NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
215 AM UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE BASED ON LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SHARP WARM UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

MAINLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF, BEGINNING TO MIX IN WET SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN FA AFTER 20Z. QPF TOTALS THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
BE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD NOT
CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS HYDRO-WISE, AS A LOT OF SNOW MELT HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED OVER THE PAST WEEK.

INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SERN FA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LAPSE RATES
AND K-INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM UPDATE...

POLAR AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA OVERNIGHT, CHANGING THE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS, BUT ON THE HILLS AND IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ABOUT A
10-12:1 SNOW TO H20 RATIO. WITH THIS RATIO IN MIND, CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOW FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA, WITH TRACE
AMOUNTS TO AROUND AND INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. DO
NOT FORESEE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY BASED ON THESE AMOUNTS.

THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. FRIDAY MAXES ARE
PROGGED FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHILE SATURDAY LOOKS
UNUSUALLY COLD, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT SYR IS ALREADY RUNNING 7.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH THROUGH THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MARCH. THE DEPARTURES WILL BE
EVEN MORE EXTREME BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS FROM ADVANCING WARM FRONT HAVE PUSHED OUT OF THE REGION
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL. FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT EXCEPT TO BGM... WHERE THEY COULD SEE
LOW END IFR CIGS. NOT CONFIDENT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT... THUS KEPT OUT OF TAF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR.
SOME SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

LOW LVL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KELM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT... THEN VARIABLE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 260102
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
902 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING. A NEW ROUND OF STEADIER
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR A RAIN OR
SNOW MIX OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH SCATTERED RAIN
OR WET SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
9 PM UPDATE... AS EXPECTED...-RA/ISOLD -FZRA HAS MOVED OFF TO THE E
THIS EVE...AS 700 MB S/WV HAS RAPIDLY TRANSLATED NEWD. WE EXPECT PCPN-
FREE CONDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE STEADIER RAIN COMES
BACK IN BY THE MID-LATE MRNG PD.

MINOR TEMP TWEAKS WERE AGN MADE THIS EVE...TO ACCOUNT FOR A BIT
CHILLIER READINGS (STILL IN THE LOW-MID 30S OVER MANY AREAS).
HOWEVER...A MILDER AMS IS ON OUR DOORSTEP WITH TEMPS IN THE UPR
30S-MID 40S ATTM IN WRN NY/NWRN PA. WE STILL EXPECT OUR TEMPS TO
SLOWLY CLIMB LTR TNT.

445 PM UPDATE... ISOLD REPORTS OF -FZRA ARE SHOWING UP ACRS SXNS
OF NE PA AND CNTRL NY E OF I-81 LATE THIS AFTN...AS THE PCPN
SHIELD TRANSLATES EWD...AND ULTIMATELY OUT OF THE RGN BY 22-00Z.
SINCE THIS IS SUCH A SHORT-TERM PHENOMENON (DRY SLOT QUICKLY
PUNCHING IN FROM THE W ATTM)...AND ISOLD AT THAT...WE DECIDED TO
HANDLE THINGS WITH JUST AN SPS.

TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE WERE ALSO TWEAKED DOWNWARD A
BIT...WITH WET BULB COOLING AT PLAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY TREND
UPWARD AGN LTR TNT...AS LOW-LVL WAA INTENSIFIES.

PREV DISC... 345 PM UPDATE...

THE BACK EDGE OF RAIN CAN ALREADY BE SEEN MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
NY AND PA AND WILL CLEAR OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS LINES
UP WELL WITH A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AND PA,
AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS DRIER AIR
MOVING IN, ONCE WE GET BEYOND OUR CURRENT RAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT
WILL BE DRY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
OVER COLORADO WILL BRING RAIN BACK ONTO OUR DOORSTEPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...

THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE NOW OVER COLORADO WILL FORM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK RIGHT OVER A DEVELOPING THERMAL BOUNDARY (THINK WINTRY
PRECIP POSSIBILITIES) THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...

RAINFALL CONCERNS...IN GENERAL WE WILL SEE A HALF INCH OF QPF
FROM 12Z THUR TO 12Z FRIDAY, WITH CLOSER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. THIS SHOULDN`T CAUSE MAJOR
PROBLEMS BUT COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT, WILL CAUSE RISES ON AREA
CREEKS AND RIVERS. FOR HYDRO DETAILS, SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

THUNDER CHANCES...SPC STILL HAS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST IN A GENERAL
THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA HAS SHRUNK VERSUS
24 HOURS AGO AND NOW ONLY THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES AROUND 0 AT
KAVP. SO WHILE OUR THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHT, I LEFT A MENTION
IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING
A SQUALL LATE IN NEPA. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM NEAR WILKES-
BARRE/SCRANTON SOUTH AND EAST.

SNOW POTENTIAL...MODEL CONSENSUS IS COLDER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO OUR
POTENTIAL RAIN TO SNOW SCENARIO THURSDAY NIGHT HAS NOW MOVED BACK
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL NY. WORKING AGAINST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE STRONG MID MARCH SUN AND WARM 2 METER TEMP
GUIDANCE, SHOWING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 0Z FRIDAY. EVEN
THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS. I PREFERRED A 80% GFS/20% NAM
BLEND. USING THIS I CHANGE THE RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MOST
OF CENTRAL NY AFTER 18Z. GIVEN OUR LOW CONFIDENCE I THOUGHT IT WAS
A GOOD IDEA TO AT LEAST MENTION A MIX WITH SNOW GIVEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY. HOWEVER WITH SUCH WARM GUIDANCE AT THE SURFACE, I ONLY
WENT A LIGHT COATING MOST PLACES THROUGH 0Z FRIDAY FOR ACTUAL SNOW ACCUMS.
THE EXCEPTION IS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE EVEN THE WARMER GFS
SHOWS A CHANGE TO SNOW BY 18Z. HERE I WENT UP TO 2 INCHES THROUGH
0Z SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA FROM NORTHERN
PA THROUGH THE REST OF NY STATE WE SHOULD SEE A CHANGE TO SNOW. A
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS TO A COATING
OR SO, BUT UP TO ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ON THE HILLS.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME AMOUNTS WE MAY APPROACH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY....CONTINUED COLD AIR AND A NORTHWEST FLOW PLUS
MOISTURE WILL MEAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE MAY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE NEPA VALLEYS FRIDAY, BUT BY SATURDAY
WITH 850S IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO, WHATEVER FALLS WILL BE SNOW.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER WESTERN
NY AND THE FINGER LAKES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST STORY
WITH MANY HOLDING IN THE 20S, AGAIN, FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. HOPEFULLY
APRIL WILL BRING SOME WARMER CHANGES!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS FROM ADVANCING WARM FRONT HAVE PUSHED OUT OF THE REGION
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL. FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT EXCEPT TO BGM... WHERE THEY COULD SEE
LOW END IFR CIGS. NOT CONFIDENT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT... THUS KEPT OUT OF TAF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR.
SOME SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

LOW LVL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KELM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT... THEN VARIABLE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 260102
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
902 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING. A NEW ROUND OF STEADIER
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR A RAIN OR
SNOW MIX OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH SCATTERED RAIN
OR WET SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
9 PM UPDATE... AS EXPECTED...-RA/ISOLD -FZRA HAS MOVED OFF TO THE E
THIS EVE...AS 700 MB S/WV HAS RAPIDLY TRANSLATED NEWD. WE EXPECT PCPN-
FREE CONDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE STEADIER RAIN COMES
BACK IN BY THE MID-LATE MRNG PD.

MINOR TEMP TWEAKS WERE AGN MADE THIS EVE...TO ACCOUNT FOR A BIT
CHILLIER READINGS (STILL IN THE LOW-MID 30S OVER MANY AREAS).
HOWEVER...A MILDER AMS IS ON OUR DOORSTEP WITH TEMPS IN THE UPR
30S-MID 40S ATTM IN WRN NY/NWRN PA. WE STILL EXPECT OUR TEMPS TO
SLOWLY CLIMB LTR TNT.

445 PM UPDATE... ISOLD REPORTS OF -FZRA ARE SHOWING UP ACRS SXNS
OF NE PA AND CNTRL NY E OF I-81 LATE THIS AFTN...AS THE PCPN
SHIELD TRANSLATES EWD...AND ULTIMATELY OUT OF THE RGN BY 22-00Z.
SINCE THIS IS SUCH A SHORT-TERM PHENOMENON (DRY SLOT QUICKLY
PUNCHING IN FROM THE W ATTM)...AND ISOLD AT THAT...WE DECIDED TO
HANDLE THINGS WITH JUST AN SPS.

TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE WERE ALSO TWEAKED DOWNWARD A
BIT...WITH WET BULB COOLING AT PLAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY TREND
UPWARD AGN LTR TNT...AS LOW-LVL WAA INTENSIFIES.

PREV DISC... 345 PM UPDATE...

THE BACK EDGE OF RAIN CAN ALREADY BE SEEN MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
NY AND PA AND WILL CLEAR OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS LINES
UP WELL WITH A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AND PA,
AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS DRIER AIR
MOVING IN, ONCE WE GET BEYOND OUR CURRENT RAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT
WILL BE DRY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
OVER COLORADO WILL BRING RAIN BACK ONTO OUR DOORSTEPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...

THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE NOW OVER COLORADO WILL FORM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK RIGHT OVER A DEVELOPING THERMAL BOUNDARY (THINK WINTRY
PRECIP POSSIBILITIES) THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...

RAINFALL CONCERNS...IN GENERAL WE WILL SEE A HALF INCH OF QPF
FROM 12Z THUR TO 12Z FRIDAY, WITH CLOSER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. THIS SHOULDN`T CAUSE MAJOR
PROBLEMS BUT COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT, WILL CAUSE RISES ON AREA
CREEKS AND RIVERS. FOR HYDRO DETAILS, SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

THUNDER CHANCES...SPC STILL HAS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST IN A GENERAL
THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA HAS SHRUNK VERSUS
24 HOURS AGO AND NOW ONLY THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES AROUND 0 AT
KAVP. SO WHILE OUR THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHT, I LEFT A MENTION
IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING
A SQUALL LATE IN NEPA. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM NEAR WILKES-
BARRE/SCRANTON SOUTH AND EAST.

SNOW POTENTIAL...MODEL CONSENSUS IS COLDER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO OUR
POTENTIAL RAIN TO SNOW SCENARIO THURSDAY NIGHT HAS NOW MOVED BACK
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL NY. WORKING AGAINST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE STRONG MID MARCH SUN AND WARM 2 METER TEMP
GUIDANCE, SHOWING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 0Z FRIDAY. EVEN
THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS. I PREFERRED A 80% GFS/20% NAM
BLEND. USING THIS I CHANGE THE RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MOST
OF CENTRAL NY AFTER 18Z. GIVEN OUR LOW CONFIDENCE I THOUGHT IT WAS
A GOOD IDEA TO AT LEAST MENTION A MIX WITH SNOW GIVEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY. HOWEVER WITH SUCH WARM GUIDANCE AT THE SURFACE, I ONLY
WENT A LIGHT COATING MOST PLACES THROUGH 0Z FRIDAY FOR ACTUAL SNOW ACCUMS.
THE EXCEPTION IS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE EVEN THE WARMER GFS
SHOWS A CHANGE TO SNOW BY 18Z. HERE I WENT UP TO 2 INCHES THROUGH
0Z SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA FROM NORTHERN
PA THROUGH THE REST OF NY STATE WE SHOULD SEE A CHANGE TO SNOW. A
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS TO A COATING
OR SO, BUT UP TO ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ON THE HILLS.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME AMOUNTS WE MAY APPROACH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY....CONTINUED COLD AIR AND A NORTHWEST FLOW PLUS
MOISTURE WILL MEAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE MAY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE NEPA VALLEYS FRIDAY, BUT BY SATURDAY
WITH 850S IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO, WHATEVER FALLS WILL BE SNOW.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER WESTERN
NY AND THE FINGER LAKES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST STORY
WITH MANY HOLDING IN THE 20S, AGAIN, FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. HOPEFULLY
APRIL WILL BRING SOME WARMER CHANGES!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS FROM ADVANCING WARM FRONT HAVE PUSHED OUT OF THE REGION
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL. FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT EXCEPT TO BGM... WHERE THEY COULD SEE
LOW END IFR CIGS. NOT CONFIDENT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT... THUS KEPT OUT OF TAF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR.
SOME SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

LOW LVL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KELM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT... THEN VARIABLE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 252359
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
759 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING. A NEW ROUND OF STEADIER
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR A RAIN OR
SNOW MIX OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH SCATTERED RAIN
OR WET SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
445 PM UPDATE... ISOLD REPORTS OF -FZRA ARE SHOWING UP ACRS SXNS
OF NE PA AND CNTRL NY E OF I-81 LATE THIS AFTN...AS THE PCPN
SHIELD TRANSLATES EWD...AND ULTIMATELY OUT OF THE RGN BY 22-00Z.
SINCE THIS IS SUCH A SHORT-TERM PHENOMENON (DRY SLOT QUICKLY
PUNCHING IN FROM THE W ATTM)...AND ISOLD AT THAT...WE DECIDED TO
HANDLE THINGS WITH JUST AN SPS.

TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE WERE ALSO TWEAKED DOWNWARD A
BIT...WITH WET BULB COOLING AT PLAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY TREND
UPWARD AGN LTR TNT...AS LOW-LVL WAA INTENSIFIES.

PREV DISC... 345 PM UPDATE...

THE BACK EDGE OF RAIN CAN ALREADY BE SEEN MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
NY AND PA AND WILL CLEAR OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS LINES
UP WELL WITH A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AND PA,
AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS DRIER AIR
MOVING IN, ONCE WE GET BEYOND OUR CURRENT RAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT
WILL BE DRY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
OVER COLORADO WILL BRING RAIN BACK ONTO OUR DOORSTEPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...

THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE NOW OVER COLORADO WILL FORM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK RIGHT OVER A DEVELOPING THERMAL BOUNDARY (THINK WINTRY
PRECIP POSSIBILITIES) THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...

RAINFALL CONCERNS...IN GENERAL WE WILL SEE A HALF INCH OF QPF
FROM 12Z THUR TO 12Z FRIDAY, WITH CLOSER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. THIS SHOULDN`T CAUSE MAJOR
PROBLEMS BUT COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT, WILL CAUSE RISES ON AREA
CREEKS AND RIVERS. FOR HYDRO DETAILS, SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

THUNDER CHANCES...SPC STILL HAS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST IN A GENERAL
THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA HAS SHRUNK VERSUS
24 HOURS AGO AND NOW ONLY THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES AROUND 0 AT
KAVP. SO WHILE OUR THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHT, I LEFT A MENTION
IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING
A SQUALL LATE IN NEPA. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM NEAR WILKES-
BARRE/SCRANTON SOUTH AND EAST.

SNOW POTENTIAL...MODEL CONSENSUS IS COLDER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO OUR
POTENTIAL RAIN TO SNOW SCENARIO THURSDAY NIGHT HAS NOW MOVED BACK
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL NY. WORKING AGAINST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE STRONG MID MARCH SUN AND WARM 2 METER TEMP
GUIDANCE, SHOWING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 0Z FRIDAY. EVEN
THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS. I PREFERRED A 80% GFS/20% NAM
BLEND. USING THIS I CHANGE THE RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MOST
OF CENTRAL NY AFTER 18Z. GIVEN OUR LOW CONFIDENCE I THOUGHT IT WAS
A GOOD IDEA TO AT LEAST MENTION A MIX WITH SNOW GIVEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY. HOWEVER WITH SUCH WARM GUIDANCE AT THE SURFACE, I ONLY
WENT A LIGHT COATING MOST PLACES THROUGH 0Z FRIDAY FOR ACTUAL SNOW ACCUMS.
THE EXCEPTION IS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE EVEN THE WARMER GFS
SHOWS A CHANGE TO SNOW BY 18Z. HERE I WENT UP TO 2 INCHES THROUGH
0Z SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA FROM NORTHERN
PA THROUGH THE REST OF NY STATE WE SHOULD SEE A CHANGE TO SNOW. A
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS TO A COATING
OR SO, BUT UP TO ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ON THE HILLS.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME AMOUNTS WE MAY APPROACH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY....CONTINUED COLD AIR AND A NORTHWEST FLOW PLUS
MOISTURE WILL MEAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE MAY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE NEPA VALLEYS FRIDAY, BUT BY SATURDAY
WITH 850S IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO, WHATEVER FALLS WILL BE SNOW.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER WESTERN
NY AND THE FINGER LAKES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST STORY
WITH MANY HOLDING IN THE 20S, AGAIN, FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. HOPEFULLY
APRIL WILL BRING SOME WARMER CHANGES!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS FROM ADVANCING WARM FRONT HAVE PUSHED OUT OF THE REGION
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL. FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT EXCEPT TO BGM... WHERE THEY COULD SEE
LOW END IFR CIGS. NOT CONFIDENT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT... THUS KEPT OUT OF TAF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR.
SOME SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

LOW LVL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KELM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT... THEN VARIABLE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KBGM 252359
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
759 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING. A NEW ROUND OF STEADIER
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR A RAIN OR
SNOW MIX OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH SCATTERED RAIN
OR WET SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
445 PM UPDATE... ISOLD REPORTS OF -FZRA ARE SHOWING UP ACRS SXNS
OF NE PA AND CNTRL NY E OF I-81 LATE THIS AFTN...AS THE PCPN
SHIELD TRANSLATES EWD...AND ULTIMATELY OUT OF THE RGN BY 22-00Z.
SINCE THIS IS SUCH A SHORT-TERM PHENOMENON (DRY SLOT QUICKLY
PUNCHING IN FROM THE W ATTM)...AND ISOLD AT THAT...WE DECIDED TO
HANDLE THINGS WITH JUST AN SPS.

TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE WERE ALSO TWEAKED DOWNWARD A
BIT...WITH WET BULB COOLING AT PLAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY TREND
UPWARD AGN LTR TNT...AS LOW-LVL WAA INTENSIFIES.

PREV DISC... 345 PM UPDATE...

THE BACK EDGE OF RAIN CAN ALREADY BE SEEN MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
NY AND PA AND WILL CLEAR OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS LINES
UP WELL WITH A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AND PA,
AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS DRIER AIR
MOVING IN, ONCE WE GET BEYOND OUR CURRENT RAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT
WILL BE DRY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
OVER COLORADO WILL BRING RAIN BACK ONTO OUR DOORSTEPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...

THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE NOW OVER COLORADO WILL FORM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK RIGHT OVER A DEVELOPING THERMAL BOUNDARY (THINK WINTRY
PRECIP POSSIBILITIES) THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...

RAINFALL CONCERNS...IN GENERAL WE WILL SEE A HALF INCH OF QPF
FROM 12Z THUR TO 12Z FRIDAY, WITH CLOSER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. THIS SHOULDN`T CAUSE MAJOR
PROBLEMS BUT COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT, WILL CAUSE RISES ON AREA
CREEKS AND RIVERS. FOR HYDRO DETAILS, SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

THUNDER CHANCES...SPC STILL HAS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST IN A GENERAL
THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA HAS SHRUNK VERSUS
24 HOURS AGO AND NOW ONLY THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES AROUND 0 AT
KAVP. SO WHILE OUR THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHT, I LEFT A MENTION
IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING
A SQUALL LATE IN NEPA. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM NEAR WILKES-
BARRE/SCRANTON SOUTH AND EAST.

SNOW POTENTIAL...MODEL CONSENSUS IS COLDER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO OUR
POTENTIAL RAIN TO SNOW SCENARIO THURSDAY NIGHT HAS NOW MOVED BACK
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL NY. WORKING AGAINST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE STRONG MID MARCH SUN AND WARM 2 METER TEMP
GUIDANCE, SHOWING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 0Z FRIDAY. EVEN
THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS. I PREFERRED A 80% GFS/20% NAM
BLEND. USING THIS I CHANGE THE RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MOST
OF CENTRAL NY AFTER 18Z. GIVEN OUR LOW CONFIDENCE I THOUGHT IT WAS
A GOOD IDEA TO AT LEAST MENTION A MIX WITH SNOW GIVEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY. HOWEVER WITH SUCH WARM GUIDANCE AT THE SURFACE, I ONLY
WENT A LIGHT COATING MOST PLACES THROUGH 0Z FRIDAY FOR ACTUAL SNOW ACCUMS.
THE EXCEPTION IS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE EVEN THE WARMER GFS
SHOWS A CHANGE TO SNOW BY 18Z. HERE I WENT UP TO 2 INCHES THROUGH
0Z SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA FROM NORTHERN
PA THROUGH THE REST OF NY STATE WE SHOULD SEE A CHANGE TO SNOW. A
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS TO A COATING
OR SO, BUT UP TO ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ON THE HILLS.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME AMOUNTS WE MAY APPROACH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY....CONTINUED COLD AIR AND A NORTHWEST FLOW PLUS
MOISTURE WILL MEAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE MAY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE NEPA VALLEYS FRIDAY, BUT BY SATURDAY
WITH 850S IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO, WHATEVER FALLS WILL BE SNOW.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER WESTERN
NY AND THE FINGER LAKES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST STORY
WITH MANY HOLDING IN THE 20S, AGAIN, FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. HOPEFULLY
APRIL WILL BRING SOME WARMER CHANGES!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS FROM ADVANCING WARM FRONT HAVE PUSHED OUT OF THE REGION
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL. FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT EXCEPT TO BGM... WHERE THEY COULD SEE
LOW END IFR CIGS. NOT CONFIDENT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT... THUS KEPT OUT OF TAF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR.
SOME SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

LOW LVL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KELM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT... THEN VARIABLE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 252359
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
759 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING. A NEW ROUND OF STEADIER
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR A RAIN OR
SNOW MIX OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH SCATTERED RAIN
OR WET SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
445 PM UPDATE... ISOLD REPORTS OF -FZRA ARE SHOWING UP ACRS SXNS
OF NE PA AND CNTRL NY E OF I-81 LATE THIS AFTN...AS THE PCPN
SHIELD TRANSLATES EWD...AND ULTIMATELY OUT OF THE RGN BY 22-00Z.
SINCE THIS IS SUCH A SHORT-TERM PHENOMENON (DRY SLOT QUICKLY
PUNCHING IN FROM THE W ATTM)...AND ISOLD AT THAT...WE DECIDED TO
HANDLE THINGS WITH JUST AN SPS.

TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE WERE ALSO TWEAKED DOWNWARD A
BIT...WITH WET BULB COOLING AT PLAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY TREND
UPWARD AGN LTR TNT...AS LOW-LVL WAA INTENSIFIES.

PREV DISC... 345 PM UPDATE...

THE BACK EDGE OF RAIN CAN ALREADY BE SEEN MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
NY AND PA AND WILL CLEAR OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS LINES
UP WELL WITH A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AND PA,
AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS DRIER AIR
MOVING IN, ONCE WE GET BEYOND OUR CURRENT RAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT
WILL BE DRY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
OVER COLORADO WILL BRING RAIN BACK ONTO OUR DOORSTEPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...

THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE NOW OVER COLORADO WILL FORM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK RIGHT OVER A DEVELOPING THERMAL BOUNDARY (THINK WINTRY
PRECIP POSSIBILITIES) THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...

RAINFALL CONCERNS...IN GENERAL WE WILL SEE A HALF INCH OF QPF
FROM 12Z THUR TO 12Z FRIDAY, WITH CLOSER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. THIS SHOULDN`T CAUSE MAJOR
PROBLEMS BUT COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT, WILL CAUSE RISES ON AREA
CREEKS AND RIVERS. FOR HYDRO DETAILS, SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

THUNDER CHANCES...SPC STILL HAS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST IN A GENERAL
THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA HAS SHRUNK VERSUS
24 HOURS AGO AND NOW ONLY THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES AROUND 0 AT
KAVP. SO WHILE OUR THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHT, I LEFT A MENTION
IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING
A SQUALL LATE IN NEPA. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM NEAR WILKES-
BARRE/SCRANTON SOUTH AND EAST.

SNOW POTENTIAL...MODEL CONSENSUS IS COLDER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO OUR
POTENTIAL RAIN TO SNOW SCENARIO THURSDAY NIGHT HAS NOW MOVED BACK
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL NY. WORKING AGAINST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE STRONG MID MARCH SUN AND WARM 2 METER TEMP
GUIDANCE, SHOWING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 0Z FRIDAY. EVEN
THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS. I PREFERRED A 80% GFS/20% NAM
BLEND. USING THIS I CHANGE THE RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MOST
OF CENTRAL NY AFTER 18Z. GIVEN OUR LOW CONFIDENCE I THOUGHT IT WAS
A GOOD IDEA TO AT LEAST MENTION A MIX WITH SNOW GIVEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY. HOWEVER WITH SUCH WARM GUIDANCE AT THE SURFACE, I ONLY
WENT A LIGHT COATING MOST PLACES THROUGH 0Z FRIDAY FOR ACTUAL SNOW ACCUMS.
THE EXCEPTION IS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE EVEN THE WARMER GFS
SHOWS A CHANGE TO SNOW BY 18Z. HERE I WENT UP TO 2 INCHES THROUGH
0Z SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA FROM NORTHERN
PA THROUGH THE REST OF NY STATE WE SHOULD SEE A CHANGE TO SNOW. A
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS TO A COATING
OR SO, BUT UP TO ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ON THE HILLS.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME AMOUNTS WE MAY APPROACH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY....CONTINUED COLD AIR AND A NORTHWEST FLOW PLUS
MOISTURE WILL MEAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE MAY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE NEPA VALLEYS FRIDAY, BUT BY SATURDAY
WITH 850S IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO, WHATEVER FALLS WILL BE SNOW.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER WESTERN
NY AND THE FINGER LAKES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST STORY
WITH MANY HOLDING IN THE 20S, AGAIN, FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. HOPEFULLY
APRIL WILL BRING SOME WARMER CHANGES!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS FROM ADVANCING WARM FRONT HAVE PUSHED OUT OF THE REGION
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL. FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT EXCEPT TO BGM... WHERE THEY COULD SEE
LOW END IFR CIGS. NOT CONFIDENT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT... THUS KEPT OUT OF TAF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR.
SOME SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

LOW LVL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KELM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT... THEN VARIABLE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KBGM 252359
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
759 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING. A NEW ROUND OF STEADIER
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR A RAIN OR
SNOW MIX OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH SCATTERED RAIN
OR WET SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
445 PM UPDATE... ISOLD REPORTS OF -FZRA ARE SHOWING UP ACRS SXNS
OF NE PA AND CNTRL NY E OF I-81 LATE THIS AFTN...AS THE PCPN
SHIELD TRANSLATES EWD...AND ULTIMATELY OUT OF THE RGN BY 22-00Z.
SINCE THIS IS SUCH A SHORT-TERM PHENOMENON (DRY SLOT QUICKLY
PUNCHING IN FROM THE W ATTM)...AND ISOLD AT THAT...WE DECIDED TO
HANDLE THINGS WITH JUST AN SPS.

TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE WERE ALSO TWEAKED DOWNWARD A
BIT...WITH WET BULB COOLING AT PLAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY TREND
UPWARD AGN LTR TNT...AS LOW-LVL WAA INTENSIFIES.

PREV DISC... 345 PM UPDATE...

THE BACK EDGE OF RAIN CAN ALREADY BE SEEN MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
NY AND PA AND WILL CLEAR OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS LINES
UP WELL WITH A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AND PA,
AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS DRIER AIR
MOVING IN, ONCE WE GET BEYOND OUR CURRENT RAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT
WILL BE DRY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
OVER COLORADO WILL BRING RAIN BACK ONTO OUR DOORSTEPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...

THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE NOW OVER COLORADO WILL FORM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK RIGHT OVER A DEVELOPING THERMAL BOUNDARY (THINK WINTRY
PRECIP POSSIBILITIES) THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...

RAINFALL CONCERNS...IN GENERAL WE WILL SEE A HALF INCH OF QPF
FROM 12Z THUR TO 12Z FRIDAY, WITH CLOSER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. THIS SHOULDN`T CAUSE MAJOR
PROBLEMS BUT COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT, WILL CAUSE RISES ON AREA
CREEKS AND RIVERS. FOR HYDRO DETAILS, SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

THUNDER CHANCES...SPC STILL HAS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST IN A GENERAL
THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA HAS SHRUNK VERSUS
24 HOURS AGO AND NOW ONLY THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES AROUND 0 AT
KAVP. SO WHILE OUR THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHT, I LEFT A MENTION
IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING
A SQUALL LATE IN NEPA. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM NEAR WILKES-
BARRE/SCRANTON SOUTH AND EAST.

SNOW POTENTIAL...MODEL CONSENSUS IS COLDER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO OUR
POTENTIAL RAIN TO SNOW SCENARIO THURSDAY NIGHT HAS NOW MOVED BACK
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL NY. WORKING AGAINST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE STRONG MID MARCH SUN AND WARM 2 METER TEMP
GUIDANCE, SHOWING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 0Z FRIDAY. EVEN
THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS. I PREFERRED A 80% GFS/20% NAM
BLEND. USING THIS I CHANGE THE RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MOST
OF CENTRAL NY AFTER 18Z. GIVEN OUR LOW CONFIDENCE I THOUGHT IT WAS
A GOOD IDEA TO AT LEAST MENTION A MIX WITH SNOW GIVEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY. HOWEVER WITH SUCH WARM GUIDANCE AT THE SURFACE, I ONLY
WENT A LIGHT COATING MOST PLACES THROUGH 0Z FRIDAY FOR ACTUAL SNOW ACCUMS.
THE EXCEPTION IS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE EVEN THE WARMER GFS
SHOWS A CHANGE TO SNOW BY 18Z. HERE I WENT UP TO 2 INCHES THROUGH
0Z SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA FROM NORTHERN
PA THROUGH THE REST OF NY STATE WE SHOULD SEE A CHANGE TO SNOW. A
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS TO A COATING
OR SO, BUT UP TO ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ON THE HILLS.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME AMOUNTS WE MAY APPROACH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY....CONTINUED COLD AIR AND A NORTHWEST FLOW PLUS
MOISTURE WILL MEAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE MAY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE NEPA VALLEYS FRIDAY, BUT BY SATURDAY
WITH 850S IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO, WHATEVER FALLS WILL BE SNOW.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER WESTERN
NY AND THE FINGER LAKES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST STORY
WITH MANY HOLDING IN THE 20S, AGAIN, FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. HOPEFULLY
APRIL WILL BRING SOME WARMER CHANGES!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS FROM ADVANCING WARM FRONT HAVE PUSHED OUT OF THE REGION
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL. FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT EXCEPT TO BGM... WHERE THEY COULD SEE
LOW END IFR CIGS. NOT CONFIDENT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT... THUS KEPT OUT OF TAF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR.
SOME SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

LOW LVL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KELM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT... THEN VARIABLE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 252049
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
449 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING. A NEW ROUND OF STEADIER
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR A RAIN OR
SNOW MIX OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH SCATTERED RAIN
OR WET SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
445 PM UPDATE... ISOLD REPORTS OF -FZRA ARE SHOWING UP ACRS SXNS
OF NE PA AND CNTRL NY E OF I-81 LATE THIS AFTN...AS THE PCPN
SHIELD TRANSLATES EWD...AND ULTIMATELY OUT OF THE RGN BY 22-00Z.
SINCE THIS IS SUCH A SHORT-TERM PHENOMENON (DRY SLOT QUICKLY
PUNCHING IN FROM THE W ATTM)...AND ISOLD AT THAT...WE DECIDED TO
HANDLE THINGS WITH JUST AN SPS.

TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE WERE ALSO TWEAKED DOWNWARD A
BIT...WITH WET BULB COOLING AT PLAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY TREND
UPWARD AGN LTR TNT...AS LOW-LVL WAA INTENSIFIES.

PREV DISC... 345 PM UPDATE...

THE BACK EDGE OF RAIN CAN ALREADY BE SEEN MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
NY AND PA AND WILL CLEAR OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS LINES
UP WELL WITH A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AND PA,
AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS DRIER AIR
MOVING IN, ONCE WE GET BEYOND OUR CURRENT RAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT
WILL BE DRY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
OVER COLORADO WILL BRING RAIN BACK ONTO OUR DOORSTEPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...

THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE NOW OVER COLORADO WILL FORM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK RIGHT OVER A DEVELOPING THERMAL BOUNDARY (THINK WINTRY
PRECIP POSSIBILITIES) THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...

RAINFALL CONCERNS...IN GENERAL WE WILL SEE A HALF INCH OF QPF
FROM 12Z THUR TO 12Z FRIDAY, WITH CLOSER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. THIS SHOULDN`T CAUSE MAJOR
PROBLEMS BUT COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT, WILL CAUSE RISES ON AREA
CREEKS AND RIVERS. FOR HYDRO DETAILS, SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

THUNDER CHANCES...SPC STILL HAS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST IN A GENERAL
THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA HAS SHRUNK VERSUS
24 HOURS AGO AND NOW ONLY THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES AROUND 0 AT
KAVP. SO WHILE OUR THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHT, I LEFT A MENTION
IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING
A SQUALL LATE IN NEPA. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM NEAR WILKES-
BARRE/SCRANTON SOUTH AND EAST.

SNOW POTENTIAL...MODEL CONSENSUS IS COLDER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO OUR
POTENTIAL RAIN TO SNOW SCENARIO THURSDAY NIGHT HAS NOW MOVED BACK
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL NY. WORKING AGAINST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE STRONG MID MARCH SUN AND WARM 2 METER TEMP
GUIDANCE, SHOWING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 0Z FRIDAY. EVEN
THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS. I PREFERRED A 80% GFS/20% NAM
BLEND. USING THIS I CHANGE THE RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MOST
OF CENTRAL NY AFTER 18Z. GIVEN OUR LOW CONFIDENCE I THOUGHT IT WAS
A GOOD IDEA TO AT LEAST MENTION A MIX WITH SNOW GIVEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY. HOWEVER WITH SUCH WARM GUIDANCE AT THE SURFACE, I ONLY
WENT A LIGHT COATING MOST PLACES THROUGH 0Z FRIDAY FOR ACTUAL SNOW ACCUMS.
THE EXCEPTION IS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE EVEN THE WARMER GFS
SHOWS A CHANGE TO SNOW BY 18Z. HERE I WENT UP TO 2 INCHES THROUGH
0Z SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA FROM NORTHERN
PA THROUGH THE REST OF NY STATE WE SHOULD SEE A CHANGE TO SNOW. A
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS TO A COATING
OR SO, BUT UP TO ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ON THE HILLS.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME AMOUNTS WE MAY APPROACH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY....CONTINUED COLD AIR AND A NORTHWEST FLOW PLUS
MOISTURE WILL MEAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE MAY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE NEPA VALLEYS FRIDAY, BUT BY SATURDAY
WITH 850S IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO, WHATEVER FALLS WILL BE SNOW.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER WESTERN
NY AND THE FINGER LAKES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST STORY
WITH MANY HOLDING IN THE 20S, AGAIN, FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. HOPEFULLY
APRIL WILL BRING SOME WARMER CHANGES!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, A COMBINATION OF FAIRLY WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS. ON
THURSDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH PA WILL BRING MVFR RAIN BACK
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLD
AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO THE
EARLY EVENING PERIOD. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


.OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 252049
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
449 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING. A NEW ROUND OF STEADIER
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR A RAIN OR
SNOW MIX OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH SCATTERED RAIN
OR WET SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
445 PM UPDATE... ISOLD REPORTS OF -FZRA ARE SHOWING UP ACRS SXNS
OF NE PA AND CNTRL NY E OF I-81 LATE THIS AFTN...AS THE PCPN
SHIELD TRANSLATES EWD...AND ULTIMATELY OUT OF THE RGN BY 22-00Z.
SINCE THIS IS SUCH A SHORT-TERM PHENOMENON (DRY SLOT QUICKLY
PUNCHING IN FROM THE W ATTM)...AND ISOLD AT THAT...WE DECIDED TO
HANDLE THINGS WITH JUST AN SPS.

TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE WERE ALSO TWEAKED DOWNWARD A
BIT...WITH WET BULB COOLING AT PLAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY TREND
UPWARD AGN LTR TNT...AS LOW-LVL WAA INTENSIFIES.

PREV DISC... 345 PM UPDATE...

THE BACK EDGE OF RAIN CAN ALREADY BE SEEN MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
NY AND PA AND WILL CLEAR OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS LINES
UP WELL WITH A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AND PA,
AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS DRIER AIR
MOVING IN, ONCE WE GET BEYOND OUR CURRENT RAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT
WILL BE DRY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
OVER COLORADO WILL BRING RAIN BACK ONTO OUR DOORSTEPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...

THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE NOW OVER COLORADO WILL FORM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK RIGHT OVER A DEVELOPING THERMAL BOUNDARY (THINK WINTRY
PRECIP POSSIBILITIES) THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...

RAINFALL CONCERNS...IN GENERAL WE WILL SEE A HALF INCH OF QPF
FROM 12Z THUR TO 12Z FRIDAY, WITH CLOSER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. THIS SHOULDN`T CAUSE MAJOR
PROBLEMS BUT COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT, WILL CAUSE RISES ON AREA
CREEKS AND RIVERS. FOR HYDRO DETAILS, SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

THUNDER CHANCES...SPC STILL HAS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST IN A GENERAL
THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA HAS SHRUNK VERSUS
24 HOURS AGO AND NOW ONLY THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES AROUND 0 AT
KAVP. SO WHILE OUR THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHT, I LEFT A MENTION
IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING
A SQUALL LATE IN NEPA. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM NEAR WILKES-
BARRE/SCRANTON SOUTH AND EAST.

SNOW POTENTIAL...MODEL CONSENSUS IS COLDER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO OUR
POTENTIAL RAIN TO SNOW SCENARIO THURSDAY NIGHT HAS NOW MOVED BACK
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL NY. WORKING AGAINST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE STRONG MID MARCH SUN AND WARM 2 METER TEMP
GUIDANCE, SHOWING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 0Z FRIDAY. EVEN
THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS. I PREFERRED A 80% GFS/20% NAM
BLEND. USING THIS I CHANGE THE RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MOST
OF CENTRAL NY AFTER 18Z. GIVEN OUR LOW CONFIDENCE I THOUGHT IT WAS
A GOOD IDEA TO AT LEAST MENTION A MIX WITH SNOW GIVEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY. HOWEVER WITH SUCH WARM GUIDANCE AT THE SURFACE, I ONLY
WENT A LIGHT COATING MOST PLACES THROUGH 0Z FRIDAY FOR ACTUAL SNOW ACCUMS.
THE EXCEPTION IS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE EVEN THE WARMER GFS
SHOWS A CHANGE TO SNOW BY 18Z. HERE I WENT UP TO 2 INCHES THROUGH
0Z SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA FROM NORTHERN
PA THROUGH THE REST OF NY STATE WE SHOULD SEE A CHANGE TO SNOW. A
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS TO A COATING
OR SO, BUT UP TO ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ON THE HILLS.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME AMOUNTS WE MAY APPROACH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY....CONTINUED COLD AIR AND A NORTHWEST FLOW PLUS
MOISTURE WILL MEAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE MAY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE NEPA VALLEYS FRIDAY, BUT BY SATURDAY
WITH 850S IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO, WHATEVER FALLS WILL BE SNOW.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER WESTERN
NY AND THE FINGER LAKES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST STORY
WITH MANY HOLDING IN THE 20S, AGAIN, FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. HOPEFULLY
APRIL WILL BRING SOME WARMER CHANGES!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, A COMBINATION OF FAIRLY WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS. ON
THURSDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH PA WILL BRING MVFR RAIN BACK
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLD
AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO THE
EARLY EVENING PERIOD. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


.OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 252049
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
449 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING. A NEW ROUND OF STEADIER
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR A RAIN OR
SNOW MIX OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH SCATTERED RAIN
OR WET SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
445 PM UPDATE... ISOLD REPORTS OF -FZRA ARE SHOWING UP ACRS SXNS
OF NE PA AND CNTRL NY E OF I-81 LATE THIS AFTN...AS THE PCPN
SHIELD TRANSLATES EWD...AND ULTIMATELY OUT OF THE RGN BY 22-00Z.
SINCE THIS IS SUCH A SHORT-TERM PHENOMENON (DRY SLOT QUICKLY
PUNCHING IN FROM THE W ATTM)...AND ISOLD AT THAT...WE DECIDED TO
HANDLE THINGS WITH JUST AN SPS.

TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE WERE ALSO TWEAKED DOWNWARD A
BIT...WITH WET BULB COOLING AT PLAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY TREND
UPWARD AGN LTR TNT...AS LOW-LVL WAA INTENSIFIES.

PREV DISC... 345 PM UPDATE...

THE BACK EDGE OF RAIN CAN ALREADY BE SEEN MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
NY AND PA AND WILL CLEAR OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS LINES
UP WELL WITH A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AND PA,
AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS DRIER AIR
MOVING IN, ONCE WE GET BEYOND OUR CURRENT RAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT
WILL BE DRY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
OVER COLORADO WILL BRING RAIN BACK ONTO OUR DOORSTEPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...

THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE NOW OVER COLORADO WILL FORM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK RIGHT OVER A DEVELOPING THERMAL BOUNDARY (THINK WINTRY
PRECIP POSSIBILITIES) THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...

RAINFALL CONCERNS...IN GENERAL WE WILL SEE A HALF INCH OF QPF
FROM 12Z THUR TO 12Z FRIDAY, WITH CLOSER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. THIS SHOULDN`T CAUSE MAJOR
PROBLEMS BUT COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT, WILL CAUSE RISES ON AREA
CREEKS AND RIVERS. FOR HYDRO DETAILS, SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

THUNDER CHANCES...SPC STILL HAS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST IN A GENERAL
THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA HAS SHRUNK VERSUS
24 HOURS AGO AND NOW ONLY THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES AROUND 0 AT
KAVP. SO WHILE OUR THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHT, I LEFT A MENTION
IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING
A SQUALL LATE IN NEPA. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM NEAR WILKES-
BARRE/SCRANTON SOUTH AND EAST.

SNOW POTENTIAL...MODEL CONSENSUS IS COLDER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO OUR
POTENTIAL RAIN TO SNOW SCENARIO THURSDAY NIGHT HAS NOW MOVED BACK
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL NY. WORKING AGAINST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE STRONG MID MARCH SUN AND WARM 2 METER TEMP
GUIDANCE, SHOWING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 0Z FRIDAY. EVEN
THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS. I PREFERRED A 80% GFS/20% NAM
BLEND. USING THIS I CHANGE THE RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MOST
OF CENTRAL NY AFTER 18Z. GIVEN OUR LOW CONFIDENCE I THOUGHT IT WAS
A GOOD IDEA TO AT LEAST MENTION A MIX WITH SNOW GIVEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY. HOWEVER WITH SUCH WARM GUIDANCE AT THE SURFACE, I ONLY
WENT A LIGHT COATING MOST PLACES THROUGH 0Z FRIDAY FOR ACTUAL SNOW ACCUMS.
THE EXCEPTION IS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE EVEN THE WARMER GFS
SHOWS A CHANGE TO SNOW BY 18Z. HERE I WENT UP TO 2 INCHES THROUGH
0Z SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA FROM NORTHERN
PA THROUGH THE REST OF NY STATE WE SHOULD SEE A CHANGE TO SNOW. A
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS TO A COATING
OR SO, BUT UP TO ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ON THE HILLS.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME AMOUNTS WE MAY APPROACH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY....CONTINUED COLD AIR AND A NORTHWEST FLOW PLUS
MOISTURE WILL MEAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE MAY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE NEPA VALLEYS FRIDAY, BUT BY SATURDAY
WITH 850S IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO, WHATEVER FALLS WILL BE SNOW.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER WESTERN
NY AND THE FINGER LAKES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST STORY
WITH MANY HOLDING IN THE 20S, AGAIN, FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. HOPEFULLY
APRIL WILL BRING SOME WARMER CHANGES!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, A COMBINATION OF FAIRLY WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS. ON
THURSDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH PA WILL BRING MVFR RAIN BACK
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLD
AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO THE
EARLY EVENING PERIOD. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


.OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 252004
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
404 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING. A NEW ROUND OF STEADIER
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR A RAIN OR
SNOW MIX OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH SCATTERED RAIN
OR WET SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
345 PM UPDATE...

THE BACK EDGE OF RAIN CAN ALREADY BE SEEN MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
NY AND PA AND WILL CLEAR OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS LINES
UP WELL WITH A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AND PA,
AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS DRIER AIR
MOVING IN, ONCE WE GET BEYOND OUR CURRENT RAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT
WILL BE DRY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
OVER COLORADO WILL BRING RAIN BACK ONTO OUR DOORSTEPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...

THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE NOW OVER COLORADO WILL FORM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK RIGHT OVER A DEVELOPING THERMAL BOUNDARY (THINK WINTRY
PRECIP POSSIBILITIES) THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...

RAINFALL CONCERNS...IN GENERAL WE WILL SEE A HALF INCH OF QPF
FROM 12Z THUR TO 12Z FRIDAY, WITH CLOSER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. THIS SHOULDN`T CAUSE MAJOR
PROBLEMS BUT COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT, WILL CAUSE RISES ON AREA
CREEKS AND RIVERS. FOR HYDRO DETAILS, SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

THUNDER CHANCES...SPC STILL HAS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST IN A GENERAL
THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA HAS SHRUNK VERSUS
24 HOURS AGO AND NOW ONLY THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES AROUND 0 AT
KAVP. SO WHILE OUR THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHT, I LEFT A MENTION
IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING
A SQUALL LATE IN NEPA. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM NEAR WILKES-
BARRE/SCRANTON SOUTH AND EAST.

SNOW POTENTIAL...MODEL CONSENSUS IS COLDER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO OUR
POTENTIAL RAIN TO SNOW SCENARIO THURSDAY NIGHT HAS NOW MOVED BACK
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL NY. WORKING AGAINST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE STRONG MID MARCH SUN AND WARM 2 METER TEMP
GUIDANCE, SHOWING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 0Z FRIDAY. EVEN
THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS. I PREFERRED A 80% GFS/20% NAM
BLEND. USING THIS I CHANGE THE RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MOST
OF CENTRAL NY AFTER 18Z. GIVEN OUR LOW CONFIDENCE I THOUGHT IT WAS
A GOOD IDEA TO AT LEAST MENTION A MIX WITH SNOW GIVEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY. HOWEVER WITH SUCH WARM GUIDANCE AT THE SURFACE, I ONLY
WENT A LIGHT COATING MOST PLACES THROUGH 0Z FRIDAY FOR ACTUAL SNOW ACCUMS.
THE EXCEPTION IS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE EVEN THE WARMER GFS
SHOWS A CHANGE TO SNOW BY 18Z. HERE I WENT UP TO 2 INCHES THROUGH
0Z SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA FROM NORTHERN
PA THROUGH THE REST OF NY STATE WE SHOULD SEE A CHANGE TO SNOW. A
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS TO A COATING
OR SO, BUT UP TO ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ON THE HILLS.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME AMOUNTS WE MAY APPROACH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY....CONTINUED COLD AIR AND A NORTHWEST FLOW PLUS
MOISTURE WILL MEAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE MAY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE NEPA VALLEYS FRIDAY, BUT BY SATURDAY
WITH 850S IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO, WHATEVER FALLS WILL BE SNOW.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER WESTERN
NY AND THE FINGER LAKES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST STORY
WITH MANY HOLDING IN THE 20S, AGAIN, FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. HOPEFULLY
APRIL WILL BRING SOME WARMER CHANGES!



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, A COMBINATION OF FAIRLY WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS. ON
THURSDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH PA WILL BRING MVFR RAIN BACK
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLD
AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO THE
EARLY EVENING PERIOD. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


.OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...JAB/RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 252004
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
404 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING. A NEW ROUND OF STEADIER
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR A RAIN OR
SNOW MIX OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH SCATTERED RAIN
OR WET SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
345 PM UPDATE...

THE BACK EDGE OF RAIN CAN ALREADY BE SEEN MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
NY AND PA AND WILL CLEAR OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS LINES
UP WELL WITH A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AND PA,
AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS DRIER AIR
MOVING IN, ONCE WE GET BEYOND OUR CURRENT RAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT
WILL BE DRY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
OVER COLORADO WILL BRING RAIN BACK ONTO OUR DOORSTEPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...

THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE NOW OVER COLORADO WILL FORM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK RIGHT OVER A DEVELOPING THERMAL BOUNDARY (THINK WINTRY
PRECIP POSSIBILITIES) THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...

RAINFALL CONCERNS...IN GENERAL WE WILL SEE A HALF INCH OF QPF
FROM 12Z THUR TO 12Z FRIDAY, WITH CLOSER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. THIS SHOULDN`T CAUSE MAJOR
PROBLEMS BUT COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT, WILL CAUSE RISES ON AREA
CREEKS AND RIVERS. FOR HYDRO DETAILS, SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

THUNDER CHANCES...SPC STILL HAS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST IN A GENERAL
THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA HAS SHRUNK VERSUS
24 HOURS AGO AND NOW ONLY THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES AROUND 0 AT
KAVP. SO WHILE OUR THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHT, I LEFT A MENTION
IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING
A SQUALL LATE IN NEPA. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM NEAR WILKES-
BARRE/SCRANTON SOUTH AND EAST.

SNOW POTENTIAL...MODEL CONSENSUS IS COLDER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO OUR
POTENTIAL RAIN TO SNOW SCENARIO THURSDAY NIGHT HAS NOW MOVED BACK
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL NY. WORKING AGAINST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE STRONG MID MARCH SUN AND WARM 2 METER TEMP
GUIDANCE, SHOWING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 0Z FRIDAY. EVEN
THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS. I PREFERRED A 80% GFS/20% NAM
BLEND. USING THIS I CHANGE THE RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MOST
OF CENTRAL NY AFTER 18Z. GIVEN OUR LOW CONFIDENCE I THOUGHT IT WAS
A GOOD IDEA TO AT LEAST MENTION A MIX WITH SNOW GIVEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY. HOWEVER WITH SUCH WARM GUIDANCE AT THE SURFACE, I ONLY
WENT A LIGHT COATING MOST PLACES THROUGH 0Z FRIDAY FOR ACTUAL SNOW ACCUMS.
THE EXCEPTION IS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE EVEN THE WARMER GFS
SHOWS A CHANGE TO SNOW BY 18Z. HERE I WENT UP TO 2 INCHES THROUGH
0Z SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA FROM NORTHERN
PA THROUGH THE REST OF NY STATE WE SHOULD SEE A CHANGE TO SNOW. A
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS TO A COATING
OR SO, BUT UP TO ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ON THE HILLS.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME AMOUNTS WE MAY APPROACH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY....CONTINUED COLD AIR AND A NORTHWEST FLOW PLUS
MOISTURE WILL MEAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE MAY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE NEPA VALLEYS FRIDAY, BUT BY SATURDAY
WITH 850S IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO, WHATEVER FALLS WILL BE SNOW.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER WESTERN
NY AND THE FINGER LAKES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST STORY
WITH MANY HOLDING IN THE 20S, AGAIN, FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. HOPEFULLY
APRIL WILL BRING SOME WARMER CHANGES!



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, A COMBINATION OF FAIRLY WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS. ON
THURSDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH PA WILL BRING MVFR RAIN BACK
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLD
AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO THE
EARLY EVENING PERIOD. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


.OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...JAB/RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 251922
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
322 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. A
SECOND STORM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
100 PM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION, IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, IS MOVING
INTO OUR FAR SOUTH AND WEST. LEFT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS HERE FOR
THE SPRINKLES AND CONTINUED HOLDING OFF THE 60%+ CHANCES FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WHEN A STEADIER AREA OF RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL PA
MOVES INTO THE FA. OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
EARLIER TREND OF WARMER AIR TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES
AND CENTRAL NY CONTINUES. WE ARE PROBABLY GETTING SOME
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING OFF THE ALLEGHENIES WITH OUR STRONG SOUTH
WIND. SPEAKING OF THE SOUTH WIND, WHILE "WARMER" TODAY WE ARE
STILL RIGHT AROUND A NORMAL TEMP FOR MID MARCH. YOU COUPLE THAT
WITH AN INCREASING OVERCAST DECK AND NICE BREEZE, AND IT DOESN`T
FEEL SUPER WARM AT ALL. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

940 AM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION TODAY, ARRIVING AROUND
16Z IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST, AROUND 19Z INTERSTATE 81 (SYR/BGM/AVP)
AND AFTER 20Z FAR EAST. WITH THIS SLOWER TIMING I AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF ALL RAIN AND NO FREEZING RAIN ISSUES FOR OUR
AREA. THE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN
THE SHORT TERM, ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES. HERE TEMPS ARE
ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. OVERALL THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.


FAST MVG WRM FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA IN ABT 6 HRS TODAY WITH
MAINLY LGT RAIN. LIFT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WITH A VERY LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. ONSET OF THE PCPN IS DELAYED ENUF NOW THAT THERE IS LTL
CHANCE OF ANY MIXED PCPN OR FRZG RAIN. WHILE AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ENUF CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH A PD A LIKELY POPS AS THE
FNT MVES THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIT OF A LULL TNGT AS THE WRM FNT IS WELL TO THE EAST BUT A
STATIONARY BNDRY SETTLES IN OR DVLPS OVER THE FCST AREA. LTL FRCG
FOR ANY PCPN BUT THERE IE MOISTURE HANGING ARND SO A LGT SHWR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

STRONGER WV APRCHS FOR THU THAT BRINGS SRN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE INTO THE DVLPG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NE US. CLSD SFC
LOW OVER N CNTRL PA 18Z THU DVLPS A WRM SECTOR OVER NE PA AND SE
NY WITH A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
COOLER AIR. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE SE
ZONES THU AFTN AND KEPT LIKELY OR CAT POPS OVER THE FCST AREA AS
THE SYSTEM SWEEPS THRU.

COLDER AIR BHD THE LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHWRS THU NGT BUT
WITH SFC TEMPS STILL MRGNL...AND PCPN AMTS LGT...NOT XPCTG ANY
ACCUMULATION.

UPR WV DROPPING THRU THE LAKES AND CAA WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, A COMBINATION OF FAIRLY WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS. ON
THURSDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH PA WILL BRING MVFR RAIN BACK
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLD
AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO THE
EARLY EVENING PERIOD. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


.OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 251922
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
322 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. A
SECOND STORM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
100 PM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION, IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, IS MOVING
INTO OUR FAR SOUTH AND WEST. LEFT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS HERE FOR
THE SPRINKLES AND CONTINUED HOLDING OFF THE 60%+ CHANCES FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WHEN A STEADIER AREA OF RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL PA
MOVES INTO THE FA. OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
EARLIER TREND OF WARMER AIR TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES
AND CENTRAL NY CONTINUES. WE ARE PROBABLY GETTING SOME
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING OFF THE ALLEGHENIES WITH OUR STRONG SOUTH
WIND. SPEAKING OF THE SOUTH WIND, WHILE "WARMER" TODAY WE ARE
STILL RIGHT AROUND A NORMAL TEMP FOR MID MARCH. YOU COUPLE THAT
WITH AN INCREASING OVERCAST DECK AND NICE BREEZE, AND IT DOESN`T
FEEL SUPER WARM AT ALL. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

940 AM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION TODAY, ARRIVING AROUND
16Z IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST, AROUND 19Z INTERSTATE 81 (SYR/BGM/AVP)
AND AFTER 20Z FAR EAST. WITH THIS SLOWER TIMING I AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF ALL RAIN AND NO FREEZING RAIN ISSUES FOR OUR
AREA. THE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN
THE SHORT TERM, ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES. HERE TEMPS ARE
ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. OVERALL THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.


FAST MVG WRM FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA IN ABT 6 HRS TODAY WITH
MAINLY LGT RAIN. LIFT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WITH A VERY LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. ONSET OF THE PCPN IS DELAYED ENUF NOW THAT THERE IS LTL
CHANCE OF ANY MIXED PCPN OR FRZG RAIN. WHILE AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ENUF CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH A PD A LIKELY POPS AS THE
FNT MVES THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIT OF A LULL TNGT AS THE WRM FNT IS WELL TO THE EAST BUT A
STATIONARY BNDRY SETTLES IN OR DVLPS OVER THE FCST AREA. LTL FRCG
FOR ANY PCPN BUT THERE IE MOISTURE HANGING ARND SO A LGT SHWR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

STRONGER WV APRCHS FOR THU THAT BRINGS SRN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE INTO THE DVLPG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NE US. CLSD SFC
LOW OVER N CNTRL PA 18Z THU DVLPS A WRM SECTOR OVER NE PA AND SE
NY WITH A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
COOLER AIR. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE SE
ZONES THU AFTN AND KEPT LIKELY OR CAT POPS OVER THE FCST AREA AS
THE SYSTEM SWEEPS THRU.

COLDER AIR BHD THE LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHWRS THU NGT BUT
WITH SFC TEMPS STILL MRGNL...AND PCPN AMTS LGT...NOT XPCTG ANY
ACCUMULATION.

UPR WV DROPPING THRU THE LAKES AND CAA WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, A COMBINATION OF FAIRLY WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS. ON
THURSDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH PA WILL BRING MVFR RAIN BACK
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLD
AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO THE
EARLY EVENING PERIOD. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


.OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
320 PM WED UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RAIN IS ALSO IN
THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF
1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL
ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON TONIGHT- THURS. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT OCCURS...THEN MINOR
FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 251758
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. A
SECOND STORM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION, IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, IS MOVING
INTO OUR FAR SOUTH AND WEST. LEFT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS HERE FOR
THE SPRINKLES AND CONTINUED HOLDING OFF THE 60%+ CHANCES FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WHEN A STEADIER AREA OF RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL PA
MOVES INTO THE FA. OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
EARLIER TREND OF WARMER AIR TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES
AND CENTRAL NY CONTINUES. WE ARE PROBABLY GETTING SOME
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING OFF THE ALLEGHENIES WITH OUR STRONG SOUTH
WIND. SPEAKING OF THE SOUTH WIND, WHILE "WARMER" TODAY WE ARE
STILL RIGHT AROUND A NORMAL TEMP FOR MID MARCH. YOU COUPLE THAT
WITH AN INCREASING OVERCAST DECK AND NICE BREEZE, AND IT DOESN`T
FEEL SUPER WARM AT ALL. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

940 AM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION TODAY, ARRIVING AROUND
16Z IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST, AROUND 19Z INTERSTATE 81 (SYR/BGM/AVP)
AND AFTER 20Z FAR EAST. WITH THIS SLOWER TIMING I AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF ALL RAIN AND NO FREEZING RAIN ISSUES FOR OUR
AREA. THE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN
THE SHORT TERM, ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES. HERE TEMPS ARE
ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. OVERALL THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.


FAST MVG WRM FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA IN ABT 6 HRS TODAY WITH
MAINLY LGT RAIN. LIFT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WITH A VERY LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. ONSET OF THE PCPN IS DELAYED ENUF NOW THAT THERE IS LTL
CHANCE OF ANY MIXED PCPN OR FRZG RAIN. WHILE AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ENUF CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH A PD A LIKELY POPS AS THE
FNT MVES THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIT OF A LULL TNGT AS THE WRM FNT IS WELL TO THE EAST BUT A
STATIONARY BNDRY SETTLES IN OR DVLPS OVER THE FCST AREA. LTL FRCG
FOR ANY PCPN BUT THERE IE MOISTURE HANGING ARND SO A LGT SHWR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

STRONGER WV APRCHS FOR THU THAT BRINGS SRN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE INTO THE DVLPG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NE US. CLSD SFC
LOW OVER N CNTRL PA 18Z THU DVLPS A WRM SECTOR OVER NE PA AND SE
NY WITH A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
COOLER AIR. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE SE
ZONES THU AFTN AND KEPT LIKELY OR CAT POPS OVER THE FCST AREA AS
THE SYSTEM SWEEPS THRU.

COLDER AIR BHD THE LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHWRS THU NGT BUT
WITH SFC TEMPS STILL MRGNL...AND PCPN AMTS LGT...NOT XPCTG ANY
ACCUMULATION.

UPR WV DROPPING THRU THE LAKES AND CAA WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, A COMBINATION OF FAIRLY WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS. ON
THURSDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH PA WILL BRING MVFR RAIN BACK
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLD
AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO THE
EARLY EVENING PERIOD. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


.OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 251758
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. A
SECOND STORM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION, IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, IS MOVING
INTO OUR FAR SOUTH AND WEST. LEFT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS HERE FOR
THE SPRINKLES AND CONTINUED HOLDING OFF THE 60%+ CHANCES FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WHEN A STEADIER AREA OF RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL PA
MOVES INTO THE FA. OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
EARLIER TREND OF WARMER AIR TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES
AND CENTRAL NY CONTINUES. WE ARE PROBABLY GETTING SOME
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING OFF THE ALLEGHENIES WITH OUR STRONG SOUTH
WIND. SPEAKING OF THE SOUTH WIND, WHILE "WARMER" TODAY WE ARE
STILL RIGHT AROUND A NORMAL TEMP FOR MID MARCH. YOU COUPLE THAT
WITH AN INCREASING OVERCAST DECK AND NICE BREEZE, AND IT DOESN`T
FEEL SUPER WARM AT ALL. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

940 AM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION TODAY, ARRIVING AROUND
16Z IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST, AROUND 19Z INTERSTATE 81 (SYR/BGM/AVP)
AND AFTER 20Z FAR EAST. WITH THIS SLOWER TIMING I AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF ALL RAIN AND NO FREEZING RAIN ISSUES FOR OUR
AREA. THE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN
THE SHORT TERM, ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES. HERE TEMPS ARE
ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. OVERALL THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.


FAST MVG WRM FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA IN ABT 6 HRS TODAY WITH
MAINLY LGT RAIN. LIFT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WITH A VERY LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. ONSET OF THE PCPN IS DELAYED ENUF NOW THAT THERE IS LTL
CHANCE OF ANY MIXED PCPN OR FRZG RAIN. WHILE AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ENUF CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH A PD A LIKELY POPS AS THE
FNT MVES THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIT OF A LULL TNGT AS THE WRM FNT IS WELL TO THE EAST BUT A
STATIONARY BNDRY SETTLES IN OR DVLPS OVER THE FCST AREA. LTL FRCG
FOR ANY PCPN BUT THERE IE MOISTURE HANGING ARND SO A LGT SHWR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

STRONGER WV APRCHS FOR THU THAT BRINGS SRN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE INTO THE DVLPG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NE US. CLSD SFC
LOW OVER N CNTRL PA 18Z THU DVLPS A WRM SECTOR OVER NE PA AND SE
NY WITH A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
COOLER AIR. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE SE
ZONES THU AFTN AND KEPT LIKELY OR CAT POPS OVER THE FCST AREA AS
THE SYSTEM SWEEPS THRU.

COLDER AIR BHD THE LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHWRS THU NGT BUT
WITH SFC TEMPS STILL MRGNL...AND PCPN AMTS LGT...NOT XPCTG ANY
ACCUMULATION.

UPR WV DROPPING THRU THE LAKES AND CAA WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, A COMBINATION OF FAIRLY WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS. ON
THURSDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH PA WILL BRING MVFR RAIN BACK
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLD
AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO THE
EARLY EVENING PERIOD. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


.OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 251758
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. A
SECOND STORM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION, IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, IS MOVING
INTO OUR FAR SOUTH AND WEST. LEFT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS HERE FOR
THE SPRINKLES AND CONTINUED HOLDING OFF THE 60%+ CHANCES FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WHEN A STEADIER AREA OF RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL PA
MOVES INTO THE FA. OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
EARLIER TREND OF WARMER AIR TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES
AND CENTRAL NY CONTINUES. WE ARE PROBABLY GETTING SOME
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING OFF THE ALLEGHENIES WITH OUR STRONG SOUTH
WIND. SPEAKING OF THE SOUTH WIND, WHILE "WARMER" TODAY WE ARE
STILL RIGHT AROUND A NORMAL TEMP FOR MID MARCH. YOU COUPLE THAT
WITH AN INCREASING OVERCAST DECK AND NICE BREEZE, AND IT DOESN`T
FEEL SUPER WARM AT ALL. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

940 AM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION TODAY, ARRIVING AROUND
16Z IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST, AROUND 19Z INTERSTATE 81 (SYR/BGM/AVP)
AND AFTER 20Z FAR EAST. WITH THIS SLOWER TIMING I AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF ALL RAIN AND NO FREEZING RAIN ISSUES FOR OUR
AREA. THE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN
THE SHORT TERM, ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES. HERE TEMPS ARE
ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. OVERALL THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.


FAST MVG WRM FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA IN ABT 6 HRS TODAY WITH
MAINLY LGT RAIN. LIFT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WITH A VERY LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. ONSET OF THE PCPN IS DELAYED ENUF NOW THAT THERE IS LTL
CHANCE OF ANY MIXED PCPN OR FRZG RAIN. WHILE AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ENUF CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH A PD A LIKELY POPS AS THE
FNT MVES THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIT OF A LULL TNGT AS THE WRM FNT IS WELL TO THE EAST BUT A
STATIONARY BNDRY SETTLES IN OR DVLPS OVER THE FCST AREA. LTL FRCG
FOR ANY PCPN BUT THERE IE MOISTURE HANGING ARND SO A LGT SHWR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

STRONGER WV APRCHS FOR THU THAT BRINGS SRN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE INTO THE DVLPG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NE US. CLSD SFC
LOW OVER N CNTRL PA 18Z THU DVLPS A WRM SECTOR OVER NE PA AND SE
NY WITH A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
COOLER AIR. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE SE
ZONES THU AFTN AND KEPT LIKELY OR CAT POPS OVER THE FCST AREA AS
THE SYSTEM SWEEPS THRU.

COLDER AIR BHD THE LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHWRS THU NGT BUT
WITH SFC TEMPS STILL MRGNL...AND PCPN AMTS LGT...NOT XPCTG ANY
ACCUMULATION.

UPR WV DROPPING THRU THE LAKES AND CAA WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, A COMBINATION OF FAIRLY WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS. ON
THURSDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH PA WILL BRING MVFR RAIN BACK
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLD
AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO THE
EARLY EVENING PERIOD. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


.OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 251758
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. A
SECOND STORM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION, IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, IS MOVING
INTO OUR FAR SOUTH AND WEST. LEFT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS HERE FOR
THE SPRINKLES AND CONTINUED HOLDING OFF THE 60%+ CHANCES FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WHEN A STEADIER AREA OF RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL PA
MOVES INTO THE FA. OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
EARLIER TREND OF WARMER AIR TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES
AND CENTRAL NY CONTINUES. WE ARE PROBABLY GETTING SOME
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING OFF THE ALLEGHENIES WITH OUR STRONG SOUTH
WIND. SPEAKING OF THE SOUTH WIND, WHILE "WARMER" TODAY WE ARE
STILL RIGHT AROUND A NORMAL TEMP FOR MID MARCH. YOU COUPLE THAT
WITH AN INCREASING OVERCAST DECK AND NICE BREEZE, AND IT DOESN`T
FEEL SUPER WARM AT ALL. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

940 AM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION TODAY, ARRIVING AROUND
16Z IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST, AROUND 19Z INTERSTATE 81 (SYR/BGM/AVP)
AND AFTER 20Z FAR EAST. WITH THIS SLOWER TIMING I AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF ALL RAIN AND NO FREEZING RAIN ISSUES FOR OUR
AREA. THE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN
THE SHORT TERM, ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES. HERE TEMPS ARE
ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. OVERALL THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.


FAST MVG WRM FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA IN ABT 6 HRS TODAY WITH
MAINLY LGT RAIN. LIFT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WITH A VERY LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. ONSET OF THE PCPN IS DELAYED ENUF NOW THAT THERE IS LTL
CHANCE OF ANY MIXED PCPN OR FRZG RAIN. WHILE AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ENUF CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH A PD A LIKELY POPS AS THE
FNT MVES THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIT OF A LULL TNGT AS THE WRM FNT IS WELL TO THE EAST BUT A
STATIONARY BNDRY SETTLES IN OR DVLPS OVER THE FCST AREA. LTL FRCG
FOR ANY PCPN BUT THERE IE MOISTURE HANGING ARND SO A LGT SHWR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

STRONGER WV APRCHS FOR THU THAT BRINGS SRN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE INTO THE DVLPG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NE US. CLSD SFC
LOW OVER N CNTRL PA 18Z THU DVLPS A WRM SECTOR OVER NE PA AND SE
NY WITH A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
COOLER AIR. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE SE
ZONES THU AFTN AND KEPT LIKELY OR CAT POPS OVER THE FCST AREA AS
THE SYSTEM SWEEPS THRU.

COLDER AIR BHD THE LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHWRS THU NGT BUT
WITH SFC TEMPS STILL MRGNL...AND PCPN AMTS LGT...NOT XPCTG ANY
ACCUMULATION.

UPR WV DROPPING THRU THE LAKES AND CAA WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, A COMBINATION OF FAIRLY WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS. ON
THURSDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH PA WILL BRING MVFR RAIN BACK
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLD
AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO THE
EARLY EVENING PERIOD. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


.OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT/FRI...MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/SHSN.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 251704
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
104 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. A
SECOND STORM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION, IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, IS MOVING
INTO OUR FAR SOUTH AND WEST. LEFT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS HERE FOR
THE SPRINKLES AND CONTINUED HOLDING OFF THE 60%+ CHANCES FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WHEN A STEADIER AREA OF RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL PA
MOVES INTO THE FA. OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
EARLIER TREND OF WARMER AIR TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES
AND CENTRAL NY CONTINUES. WE ARE PROBABLY GETTING SOME
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING OFF THE ALLEGHENIES WITH OUR STRONG SOUTH
WIND. SPEAKING OF THE SOUTH WIND, WHILE "WARMER" TODAY WE ARE
STILL RIGHT AROUND A NORMAL TEMP FOR MID MARCH. YOU COUPLE THAT
WITH AN INCREASING OVERCAST DECK AND NICE BREEZE, AND IT DOESN`T
FEEL SUPER WARM AT ALL. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

940 AM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION TODAY, ARRIVING AROUND
16Z IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST, AROUND 19Z INTERSTATE 81 (SYR/BGM/AVP)
AND AFTER 20Z FAR EAST. WITH THIS SLOWER TIMING I AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF ALL RAIN AND NO FREEZING RAIN ISSUES FOR OUR
AREA. THE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN
THE SHORT TERM, ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES. HERE TEMPS ARE
ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. OVERALL THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.


FAST MVG WRM FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA IN ABT 6 HRS TODAY WITH
MAINLY LGT RAIN. LIFT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WITH A VERY LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. ONSET OF THE PCPN IS DELAYED ENUF NOW THAT THERE IS LTL
CHANCE OF ANY MIXED PCPN OR FRZG RAIN. WHILE AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ENUF CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH A PD A LIKELY POPS AS THE
FNT MVES THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIT OF A LULL TNGT AS THE WRM FNT IS WELL TO THE EAST BUT A
STATIONARY BNDRY SETTLES IN OR DVLPS OVER THE FCST AREA. LTL FRCG
FOR ANY PCPN BUT THERE IE MOISTURE HANGING ARND SO A LGT SHWR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

STRONGER WV APRCHS FOR THU THAT BRINGS SRN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE INTO THE DVLPG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NE US. CLSD SFC
LOW OVER N CNTRL PA 18Z THU DVLPS A WRM SECTOR OVER NE PA AND SE
NY WITH A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
COOLER AIR. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE SE
ZONES THU AFTN AND KEPT LIKELY OR CAT POPS OVER THE FCST AREA AS
THE SYSTEM SWEEPS THRU.

COLDER AIR BHD THE LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHWRS THU NGT BUT
WITH SFC TEMPS STILL MRGNL...AND PCPN AMTS LGT...NOT XPCTG ANY
ACCUMULATION.

UPR WV DROPPING THRU THE LAKES AND CAA WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS, WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z.

LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON,
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

IN ADDITION, WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS
AROUND 2000 FEET AGL. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ADDED WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...MVFR...CHC IFR. SHOWERS/FOG.

FRI...MVFR/VFR. CHC SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD IFR VSBY.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 251704
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
104 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. A
SECOND STORM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION, IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, IS MOVING
INTO OUR FAR SOUTH AND WEST. LEFT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS HERE FOR
THE SPRINKLES AND CONTINUED HOLDING OFF THE 60%+ CHANCES FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WHEN A STEADIER AREA OF RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL PA
MOVES INTO THE FA. OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
EARLIER TREND OF WARMER AIR TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES
AND CENTRAL NY CONTINUES. WE ARE PROBABLY GETTING SOME
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING OFF THE ALLEGHENIES WITH OUR STRONG SOUTH
WIND. SPEAKING OF THE SOUTH WIND, WHILE "WARMER" TODAY WE ARE
STILL RIGHT AROUND A NORMAL TEMP FOR MID MARCH. YOU COUPLE THAT
WITH AN INCREASING OVERCAST DECK AND NICE BREEZE, AND IT DOESN`T
FEEL SUPER WARM AT ALL. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

940 AM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION TODAY, ARRIVING AROUND
16Z IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST, AROUND 19Z INTERSTATE 81 (SYR/BGM/AVP)
AND AFTER 20Z FAR EAST. WITH THIS SLOWER TIMING I AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF ALL RAIN AND NO FREEZING RAIN ISSUES FOR OUR
AREA. THE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN
THE SHORT TERM, ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES. HERE TEMPS ARE
ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. OVERALL THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.


FAST MVG WRM FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA IN ABT 6 HRS TODAY WITH
MAINLY LGT RAIN. LIFT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WITH A VERY LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. ONSET OF THE PCPN IS DELAYED ENUF NOW THAT THERE IS LTL
CHANCE OF ANY MIXED PCPN OR FRZG RAIN. WHILE AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ENUF CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH A PD A LIKELY POPS AS THE
FNT MVES THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIT OF A LULL TNGT AS THE WRM FNT IS WELL TO THE EAST BUT A
STATIONARY BNDRY SETTLES IN OR DVLPS OVER THE FCST AREA. LTL FRCG
FOR ANY PCPN BUT THERE IE MOISTURE HANGING ARND SO A LGT SHWR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

STRONGER WV APRCHS FOR THU THAT BRINGS SRN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE INTO THE DVLPG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NE US. CLSD SFC
LOW OVER N CNTRL PA 18Z THU DVLPS A WRM SECTOR OVER NE PA AND SE
NY WITH A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
COOLER AIR. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE SE
ZONES THU AFTN AND KEPT LIKELY OR CAT POPS OVER THE FCST AREA AS
THE SYSTEM SWEEPS THRU.

COLDER AIR BHD THE LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHWRS THU NGT BUT
WITH SFC TEMPS STILL MRGNL...AND PCPN AMTS LGT...NOT XPCTG ANY
ACCUMULATION.

UPR WV DROPPING THRU THE LAKES AND CAA WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS, WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z.

LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON,
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

IN ADDITION, WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS
AROUND 2000 FEET AGL. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ADDED WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...MVFR...CHC IFR. SHOWERS/FOG.

FRI...MVFR/VFR. CHC SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD IFR VSBY.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 251704
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
104 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. A
SECOND STORM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION, IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, IS MOVING
INTO OUR FAR SOUTH AND WEST. LEFT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS HERE FOR
THE SPRINKLES AND CONTINUED HOLDING OFF THE 60%+ CHANCES FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WHEN A STEADIER AREA OF RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL PA
MOVES INTO THE FA. OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
EARLIER TREND OF WARMER AIR TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES
AND CENTRAL NY CONTINUES. WE ARE PROBABLY GETTING SOME
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING OFF THE ALLEGHENIES WITH OUR STRONG SOUTH
WIND. SPEAKING OF THE SOUTH WIND, WHILE "WARMER" TODAY WE ARE
STILL RIGHT AROUND A NORMAL TEMP FOR MID MARCH. YOU COUPLE THAT
WITH AN INCREASING OVERCAST DECK AND NICE BREEZE, AND IT DOESN`T
FEEL SUPER WARM AT ALL. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

940 AM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION TODAY, ARRIVING AROUND
16Z IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST, AROUND 19Z INTERSTATE 81 (SYR/BGM/AVP)
AND AFTER 20Z FAR EAST. WITH THIS SLOWER TIMING I AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF ALL RAIN AND NO FREEZING RAIN ISSUES FOR OUR
AREA. THE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN
THE SHORT TERM, ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES. HERE TEMPS ARE
ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. OVERALL THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.


FAST MVG WRM FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA IN ABT 6 HRS TODAY WITH
MAINLY LGT RAIN. LIFT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WITH A VERY LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. ONSET OF THE PCPN IS DELAYED ENUF NOW THAT THERE IS LTL
CHANCE OF ANY MIXED PCPN OR FRZG RAIN. WHILE AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ENUF CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH A PD A LIKELY POPS AS THE
FNT MVES THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIT OF A LULL TNGT AS THE WRM FNT IS WELL TO THE EAST BUT A
STATIONARY BNDRY SETTLES IN OR DVLPS OVER THE FCST AREA. LTL FRCG
FOR ANY PCPN BUT THERE IE MOISTURE HANGING ARND SO A LGT SHWR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

STRONGER WV APRCHS FOR THU THAT BRINGS SRN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE INTO THE DVLPG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NE US. CLSD SFC
LOW OVER N CNTRL PA 18Z THU DVLPS A WRM SECTOR OVER NE PA AND SE
NY WITH A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
COOLER AIR. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE SE
ZONES THU AFTN AND KEPT LIKELY OR CAT POPS OVER THE FCST AREA AS
THE SYSTEM SWEEPS THRU.

COLDER AIR BHD THE LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHWRS THU NGT BUT
WITH SFC TEMPS STILL MRGNL...AND PCPN AMTS LGT...NOT XPCTG ANY
ACCUMULATION.

UPR WV DROPPING THRU THE LAKES AND CAA WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS, WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z.

LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON,
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

IN ADDITION, WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS
AROUND 2000 FEET AGL. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ADDED WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...MVFR...CHC IFR. SHOWERS/FOG.

FRI...MVFR/VFR. CHC SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD IFR VSBY.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 251704
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
104 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. A
SECOND STORM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION, IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, IS MOVING
INTO OUR FAR SOUTH AND WEST. LEFT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS HERE FOR
THE SPRINKLES AND CONTINUED HOLDING OFF THE 60%+ CHANCES FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WHEN A STEADIER AREA OF RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL PA
MOVES INTO THE FA. OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
EARLIER TREND OF WARMER AIR TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES
AND CENTRAL NY CONTINUES. WE ARE PROBABLY GETTING SOME
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING OFF THE ALLEGHENIES WITH OUR STRONG SOUTH
WIND. SPEAKING OF THE SOUTH WIND, WHILE "WARMER" TODAY WE ARE
STILL RIGHT AROUND A NORMAL TEMP FOR MID MARCH. YOU COUPLE THAT
WITH AN INCREASING OVERCAST DECK AND NICE BREEZE, AND IT DOESN`T
FEEL SUPER WARM AT ALL. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

940 AM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION TODAY, ARRIVING AROUND
16Z IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST, AROUND 19Z INTERSTATE 81 (SYR/BGM/AVP)
AND AFTER 20Z FAR EAST. WITH THIS SLOWER TIMING I AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF ALL RAIN AND NO FREEZING RAIN ISSUES FOR OUR
AREA. THE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN
THE SHORT TERM, ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES. HERE TEMPS ARE
ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. OVERALL THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.


FAST MVG WRM FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA IN ABT 6 HRS TODAY WITH
MAINLY LGT RAIN. LIFT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WITH A VERY LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. ONSET OF THE PCPN IS DELAYED ENUF NOW THAT THERE IS LTL
CHANCE OF ANY MIXED PCPN OR FRZG RAIN. WHILE AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ENUF CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH A PD A LIKELY POPS AS THE
FNT MVES THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIT OF A LULL TNGT AS THE WRM FNT IS WELL TO THE EAST BUT A
STATIONARY BNDRY SETTLES IN OR DVLPS OVER THE FCST AREA. LTL FRCG
FOR ANY PCPN BUT THERE IE MOISTURE HANGING ARND SO A LGT SHWR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

STRONGER WV APRCHS FOR THU THAT BRINGS SRN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE INTO THE DVLPG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NE US. CLSD SFC
LOW OVER N CNTRL PA 18Z THU DVLPS A WRM SECTOR OVER NE PA AND SE
NY WITH A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
COOLER AIR. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE SE
ZONES THU AFTN AND KEPT LIKELY OR CAT POPS OVER THE FCST AREA AS
THE SYSTEM SWEEPS THRU.

COLDER AIR BHD THE LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHWRS THU NGT BUT
WITH SFC TEMPS STILL MRGNL...AND PCPN AMTS LGT...NOT XPCTG ANY
ACCUMULATION.

UPR WV DROPPING THRU THE LAKES AND CAA WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS, WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z.

LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON,
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

IN ADDITION, WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS
AROUND 2000 FEET AGL. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ADDED WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...MVFR...CHC IFR. SHOWERS/FOG.

FRI...MVFR/VFR. CHC SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD IFR VSBY.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 251343
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
943 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. A
SECOND STORM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
940 AM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION TODAY, ARRIVING AROUND
16Z IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST, AROUND 19Z INTERSTATE 81 (SYR/BGM/AVP)
AND AFTER 20Z FAR EAST. WITH THIS SLOWER TIMING I AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF ALL RAIN AND NO FREEZING RAIN ISSUES FOR OUR
AREA. THE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN
THE SHORT TERM, ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES. HERE TEMPS ARE
ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. OVERALL THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.


FAST MVG WRM FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA IN ABT 6 HRS TODAY WITH
MAINLY LGT RAIN. LIFT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WITH A VERY LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. ONSET OF THE PCPN IS DELAYED ENUF NOW THAT THERE IS LTL
CHANCE OF ANY MIXED PCPN OR FRZG RAIN. WHILE AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ENUF CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH A PD A LIKELY POPS AS THE
FNT MVES THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIT OF A LULL TNGT AS THE WRM FNT IS WELL TO THE EAST BUT A
STATIONARY BNDRY SETTLES IN OR DVLPS OVER THE FCST AREA. LTL FRCG
FOR ANY PCPN BUT THERE IE MOISTURE HANGING ARND SO A LGT SHWR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

STRONGER WV APRCHS FOR THU THAT BRINGS SRN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE INTO THE DVLPG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NE US. CLSD SFC
LOW OVER N CNTRL PA 18Z THU DVLPS A WRM SECTOR OVER NE PA AND SE
NY WITH A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
COOLER AIR. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE SE
ZONES THU AFTN AND KEPT LIKELY OR CAT POPS OVER THE FCST AREA AS
THE SYSTEM SWEEPS THRU.

COLDER AIR BHD THE LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHWRS THU NGT BUT
WITH SFC TEMPS STILL MRGNL...AND PCPN AMTS LGT...NOT XPCTG ANY
ACCUMULATION.

UPR WV DROPPING THRU THE LAKES AND CAA WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS, WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z.

LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON,
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

IN ADDITION, WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS
AROUND 2000 FEET AGL. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ADDED WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...MVFR...CHC IFR. SHOWERS/FOG.

FRI...MVFR/VFR. CHC SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD IFR VSBY.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 251343
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
943 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. A
SECOND STORM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
940 AM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION TODAY, ARRIVING AROUND
16Z IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST, AROUND 19Z INTERSTATE 81 (SYR/BGM/AVP)
AND AFTER 20Z FAR EAST. WITH THIS SLOWER TIMING I AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF ALL RAIN AND NO FREEZING RAIN ISSUES FOR OUR
AREA. THE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN
THE SHORT TERM, ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES. HERE TEMPS ARE
ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. OVERALL THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.


FAST MVG WRM FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA IN ABT 6 HRS TODAY WITH
MAINLY LGT RAIN. LIFT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WITH A VERY LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. ONSET OF THE PCPN IS DELAYED ENUF NOW THAT THERE IS LTL
CHANCE OF ANY MIXED PCPN OR FRZG RAIN. WHILE AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ENUF CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH A PD A LIKELY POPS AS THE
FNT MVES THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIT OF A LULL TNGT AS THE WRM FNT IS WELL TO THE EAST BUT A
STATIONARY BNDRY SETTLES IN OR DVLPS OVER THE FCST AREA. LTL FRCG
FOR ANY PCPN BUT THERE IE MOISTURE HANGING ARND SO A LGT SHWR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

STRONGER WV APRCHS FOR THU THAT BRINGS SRN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE INTO THE DVLPG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NE US. CLSD SFC
LOW OVER N CNTRL PA 18Z THU DVLPS A WRM SECTOR OVER NE PA AND SE
NY WITH A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
COOLER AIR. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE SE
ZONES THU AFTN AND KEPT LIKELY OR CAT POPS OVER THE FCST AREA AS
THE SYSTEM SWEEPS THRU.

COLDER AIR BHD THE LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHWRS THU NGT BUT
WITH SFC TEMPS STILL MRGNL...AND PCPN AMTS LGT...NOT XPCTG ANY
ACCUMULATION.

UPR WV DROPPING THRU THE LAKES AND CAA WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS, WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z.

LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON,
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

IN ADDITION, WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS
AROUND 2000 FEET AGL. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ADDED WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...MVFR...CHC IFR. SHOWERS/FOG.

FRI...MVFR/VFR. CHC SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD IFR VSBY.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 251019
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
619 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. A
SECOND STORM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAST MVG WRM FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA IN ABT 6 HRS TODAY WITH
MAINLY LGT RAIN. LIFT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WITH A VERY LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. ONSET OF THE PCPN IS DELAYED ENUF NOW THAT THERE IS LTL
CHANCE OF ANY MIXED PCPN OR FRZG RAIN. WHILE AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ENUF CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH A PD A LIKELY POPS AS THE
FNT MVES THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIT OF A LULL TNGT AS THE WRM FNT IS WELL TO THE EAST BUT A
STATIONARY BNDRY SETTLES IN OR DVLPS OVER THE FCST AREA. LTL FRCG
FOR ANY PCPN BUT THERE IE MOISTURE HANGING ARND SO A LGT SHWR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

STRONGER WV APRCHS FOR THU THAT BRINGS SRN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE INTO THE DVLPG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NE US. CLSD SFC
LOW OVER N CNTRL PA 18Z THU DVLPS A WRM SECTOR OVER NE PA AND SE
NY WITH A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
COOLER AIR. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE SE
ZONES THU AFTN AND KEPT LIKELY OR CAT POPS OVER THE FCST AREA AS
THE SYSTEM SWEEPS THRU.

COLDER AIR BHD THE LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHWRS THU NGT BUT
WITH SFC TEMPS STILL MRGNL...AND PCPN AMTS LGT...NOT XPCTG ANY
ACCUMULATION.

UPR WV DROPPING THRU THE LAKES AND CAA WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS, WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z.

LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON,
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

IN ADDITION, WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS
AROUND 2000 FEET AGL. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ADDED WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...MVFR...CHC IFR. SHOWERS/FOG.

FRI...MVFR/VFR. CHC SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD IFR VSBY.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 251019
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
619 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. A
SECOND STORM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAST MVG WRM FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA IN ABT 6 HRS TODAY WITH
MAINLY LGT RAIN. LIFT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WITH A VERY LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. ONSET OF THE PCPN IS DELAYED ENUF NOW THAT THERE IS LTL
CHANCE OF ANY MIXED PCPN OR FRZG RAIN. WHILE AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ENUF CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH A PD A LIKELY POPS AS THE
FNT MVES THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIT OF A LULL TNGT AS THE WRM FNT IS WELL TO THE EAST BUT A
STATIONARY BNDRY SETTLES IN OR DVLPS OVER THE FCST AREA. LTL FRCG
FOR ANY PCPN BUT THERE IE MOISTURE HANGING ARND SO A LGT SHWR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

STRONGER WV APRCHS FOR THU THAT BRINGS SRN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE INTO THE DVLPG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NE US. CLSD SFC
LOW OVER N CNTRL PA 18Z THU DVLPS A WRM SECTOR OVER NE PA AND SE
NY WITH A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
COOLER AIR. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE SE
ZONES THU AFTN AND KEPT LIKELY OR CAT POPS OVER THE FCST AREA AS
THE SYSTEM SWEEPS THRU.

COLDER AIR BHD THE LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHWRS THU NGT BUT
WITH SFC TEMPS STILL MRGNL...AND PCPN AMTS LGT...NOT XPCTG ANY
ACCUMULATION.

UPR WV DROPPING THRU THE LAKES AND CAA WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS, WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z.

LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON,
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

IN ADDITION, WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS
AROUND 2000 FEET AGL. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ADDED WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...MVFR...CHC IFR. SHOWERS/FOG.

FRI...MVFR/VFR. CHC SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD IFR VSBY.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 250624
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
224 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. A
SECOND STORM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

FAST MVG WRM FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA IN ABT 6 HRS TODAY WITH
MAINLY LGT RAIN. LIFT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WITH A VERY LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. ONSET OF THE PCPN IS DELAYED ENUF NOW THAT THERE IS LTL
CHANCE OF ANY MIXED PCPN OR FRZG RAIN. WHILE AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ENUF CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH A PD A LIKELY POPS AS THE
FNT MVES THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BIT OF A LULL TNGT AS THE WRM FNT IS WELL TO THE EAST BUT A
STATIONARY BNDRY SETTLES IN OR DVLPS OVER THE FCST AREA. LTL FRCG
FOR ANY PCPN BUT THERE IE MOISTURE HANGING ARND SO A LGT SHWR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

STRONGER WV APRCHS FOR THU THAT BRINGS SRN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE INTO THE DVLPG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NE US. CLSD SFC
LOW OVER N CNTRL PA 18Z THU DVLPS A WRM SECTOR OVER NE PA AND SE
NY WITH A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
COOLER AIR. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE SE
ZONES THU AFTN AND KEPT LIKELY OR CAT POPS OVER THE FCST AREA AS
THE SYSTEM SWEEPS THRU.

COLDER AIR BHD THE LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHWRS THU NGT BUT
WITH SFC TEMPS STILL MRGNL...AND PCPN AMTS LGT...NOT XPCTG ANY
ACCUMULATION.

UPR WV DROPPING THRU THE LAKES AND CAA WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS, WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z.

LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON,
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...MVFR...CHC IFR. SHOWERS/FOG.

FRI...MVFR/VFR. CHC SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD IFR VSBY.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 250624
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
224 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. A
SECOND STORM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

FAST MVG WRM FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA IN ABT 6 HRS TODAY WITH
MAINLY LGT RAIN. LIFT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WITH A VERY LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. ONSET OF THE PCPN IS DELAYED ENUF NOW THAT THERE IS LTL
CHANCE OF ANY MIXED PCPN OR FRZG RAIN. WHILE AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ENUF CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH A PD A LIKELY POPS AS THE
FNT MVES THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BIT OF A LULL TNGT AS THE WRM FNT IS WELL TO THE EAST BUT A
STATIONARY BNDRY SETTLES IN OR DVLPS OVER THE FCST AREA. LTL FRCG
FOR ANY PCPN BUT THERE IE MOISTURE HANGING ARND SO A LGT SHWR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

STRONGER WV APRCHS FOR THU THAT BRINGS SRN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE INTO THE DVLPG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NE US. CLSD SFC
LOW OVER N CNTRL PA 18Z THU DVLPS A WRM SECTOR OVER NE PA AND SE
NY WITH A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
COOLER AIR. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE SE
ZONES THU AFTN AND KEPT LIKELY OR CAT POPS OVER THE FCST AREA AS
THE SYSTEM SWEEPS THRU.

COLDER AIR BHD THE LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHWRS THU NGT BUT
WITH SFC TEMPS STILL MRGNL...AND PCPN AMTS LGT...NOT XPCTG ANY
ACCUMULATION.

UPR WV DROPPING THRU THE LAKES AND CAA WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS, WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z.

LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON,
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...MVFR...CHC IFR. SHOWERS/FOG.

FRI...MVFR/VFR. CHC SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD IFR VSBY.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 250624
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
224 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. A
SECOND STORM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

FAST MVG WRM FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA IN ABT 6 HRS TODAY WITH
MAINLY LGT RAIN. LIFT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WITH A VERY LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. ONSET OF THE PCPN IS DELAYED ENUF NOW THAT THERE IS LTL
CHANCE OF ANY MIXED PCPN OR FRZG RAIN. WHILE AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ENUF CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH A PD A LIKELY POPS AS THE
FNT MVES THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BIT OF A LULL TNGT AS THE WRM FNT IS WELL TO THE EAST BUT A
STATIONARY BNDRY SETTLES IN OR DVLPS OVER THE FCST AREA. LTL FRCG
FOR ANY PCPN BUT THERE IE MOISTURE HANGING ARND SO A LGT SHWR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

STRONGER WV APRCHS FOR THU THAT BRINGS SRN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE INTO THE DVLPG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NE US. CLSD SFC
LOW OVER N CNTRL PA 18Z THU DVLPS A WRM SECTOR OVER NE PA AND SE
NY WITH A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
COOLER AIR. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE SE
ZONES THU AFTN AND KEPT LIKELY OR CAT POPS OVER THE FCST AREA AS
THE SYSTEM SWEEPS THRU.

COLDER AIR BHD THE LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHWRS THU NGT BUT
WITH SFC TEMPS STILL MRGNL...AND PCPN AMTS LGT...NOT XPCTG ANY
ACCUMULATION.

UPR WV DROPPING THRU THE LAKES AND CAA WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS, WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z.

LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON,
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...MVFR...CHC IFR. SHOWERS/FOG.

FRI...MVFR/VFR. CHC SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD IFR VSBY.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 250624
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
224 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. A
SECOND STORM MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

FAST MVG WRM FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA IN ABT 6 HRS TODAY WITH
MAINLY LGT RAIN. LIFT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WITH A VERY LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. ONSET OF THE PCPN IS DELAYED ENUF NOW THAT THERE IS LTL
CHANCE OF ANY MIXED PCPN OR FRZG RAIN. WHILE AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ENUF CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE WITH A PD A LIKELY POPS AS THE
FNT MVES THRU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BIT OF A LULL TNGT AS THE WRM FNT IS WELL TO THE EAST BUT A
STATIONARY BNDRY SETTLES IN OR DVLPS OVER THE FCST AREA. LTL FRCG
FOR ANY PCPN BUT THERE IE MOISTURE HANGING ARND SO A LGT SHWR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

STRONGER WV APRCHS FOR THU THAT BRINGS SRN STREAM ENERGY AND
MOISTURE INTO THE DVLPG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NE US. CLSD SFC
LOW OVER N CNTRL PA 18Z THU DVLPS A WRM SECTOR OVER NE PA AND SE
NY WITH A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
COOLER AIR. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE SE
ZONES THU AFTN AND KEPT LIKELY OR CAT POPS OVER THE FCST AREA AS
THE SYSTEM SWEEPS THRU.

COLDER AIR BHD THE LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHWRS THU NGT BUT
WITH SFC TEMPS STILL MRGNL...AND PCPN AMTS LGT...NOT XPCTG ANY
ACCUMULATION.

UPR WV DROPPING THRU THE LAKES AND CAA WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS
FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS, WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z.

LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON,
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...MVFR...CHC IFR. SHOWERS/FOG.

FRI...MVFR/VFR. CHC SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD IFR VSBY.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 250459
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1259 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TONIGHT
KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY BUT CHILLY. ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY, BRINGING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
0715 PM UPDATE...ONLY A FEW VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS
AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING IN AND WILL BRING A CALM
AND TRANQUIL NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...1030 MB HIGH PARKED OVER CENTRAL NY WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT, KEEPING US QUIET AND DRY. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST. SO WHILE A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND NIGHT MAY
ALLOW FOR A FAST TEMP FALL AFTER SUNSET, TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES "WARMER" THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

TRICKY FORECAST WITH PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS ON THE FRONT AND BACK
END WITH MODERATE RAIN POTENTIAL AND EVEN THUNDER IN THE MIDDLE.
MUST FINALLY BE SPRING!

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ALLOW FOR
A SURGE OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE LIFT
FROM WAA ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN NY WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BOTH
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR JUST RAIN. OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
A BIT OF WET SNOW OR ICE AT THE ONSET, BUT THAT LOOKS TO BE LESS
LIKELY WITH A SLIGHTLY DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION BY AN
HOUR OR SO. IT WILL BE CLOSER HOWEVER OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE SURFACE TEMPS MAY BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING (33). WITH TEMPS SO
CLOSE, I WOULDN`T`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN HERE AT THE VERY ONSET. FOR NOW THINK RAIN IS MORE LIKELY AND
WILL WORD IT AS SUCH.


AFTER THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING,
MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AS WE GET INTO A DRY
SLOT. MEANWHILE A SHORT WAVE JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DIVE SOUTH IN THE MEAN TROF AND CREATE A SECOND
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS SECOND LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH THIS SURFACE TRACK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FIRST FOCUS
FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO CENTRAL NY. MEANWHILE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WE MAY BE JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OR TWO OVER NORTHEAST PA. MLCAPES GET INTO THE 100 TO 200 J/KG
RANGE, WITH LI`S NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK AND I ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FROM NEAR THE SCRANTON/WILKES-BARRE AREA EAST.

EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL SAG SOUTH AND EAST
OVER OUR AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES NORTHEAST,
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, OR AROUND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH FROM 12Z THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY. CLOSER TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHEAST, WITH THE
MINIMUM IN THE MIDDLE. FOR POSSIBLE SNOW MELT AND RAIN IMPACTS ON
AREA RIVERS, SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

FOLLOWING THE GFS SOLUTION THURSDAY NIGHT, RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW BUT AT THE SAME TIME PRECIP SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN FAST.
WE MAY SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMS ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NY, ACROSS
ONEIDA COUNTY DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. AFTER A LULL
EARLY FRIDAY, A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING EAST WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCT. SNOW SHOWERS. SOME RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER SECTIONS OF NEPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS, WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z.

LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON,
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...MVFR...CHC IFR. SHOWERS/FOG.

FRI...MVFR/VFR. CHC SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD IFR VSBY.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PCF
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 250459
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1259 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TONIGHT
KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY BUT CHILLY. ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY, BRINGING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
0715 PM UPDATE...ONLY A FEW VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS
AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING IN AND WILL BRING A CALM
AND TRANQUIL NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...1030 MB HIGH PARKED OVER CENTRAL NY WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT, KEEPING US QUIET AND DRY. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST. SO WHILE A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND NIGHT MAY
ALLOW FOR A FAST TEMP FALL AFTER SUNSET, TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES "WARMER" THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

TRICKY FORECAST WITH PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS ON THE FRONT AND BACK
END WITH MODERATE RAIN POTENTIAL AND EVEN THUNDER IN THE MIDDLE.
MUST FINALLY BE SPRING!

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ALLOW FOR
A SURGE OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE LIFT
FROM WAA ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN NY WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BOTH
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR JUST RAIN. OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
A BIT OF WET SNOW OR ICE AT THE ONSET, BUT THAT LOOKS TO BE LESS
LIKELY WITH A SLIGHTLY DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION BY AN
HOUR OR SO. IT WILL BE CLOSER HOWEVER OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE SURFACE TEMPS MAY BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING (33). WITH TEMPS SO
CLOSE, I WOULDN`T`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN HERE AT THE VERY ONSET. FOR NOW THINK RAIN IS MORE LIKELY AND
WILL WORD IT AS SUCH.


AFTER THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING,
MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AS WE GET INTO A DRY
SLOT. MEANWHILE A SHORT WAVE JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DIVE SOUTH IN THE MEAN TROF AND CREATE A SECOND
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS SECOND LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH THIS SURFACE TRACK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FIRST FOCUS
FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO CENTRAL NY. MEANWHILE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WE MAY BE JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OR TWO OVER NORTHEAST PA. MLCAPES GET INTO THE 100 TO 200 J/KG
RANGE, WITH LI`S NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK AND I ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FROM NEAR THE SCRANTON/WILKES-BARRE AREA EAST.

EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL SAG SOUTH AND EAST
OVER OUR AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES NORTHEAST,
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, OR AROUND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH FROM 12Z THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY. CLOSER TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHEAST, WITH THE
MINIMUM IN THE MIDDLE. FOR POSSIBLE SNOW MELT AND RAIN IMPACTS ON
AREA RIVERS, SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

FOLLOWING THE GFS SOLUTION THURSDAY NIGHT, RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW BUT AT THE SAME TIME PRECIP SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN FAST.
WE MAY SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMS ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NY, ACROSS
ONEIDA COUNTY DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. AFTER A LULL
EARLY FRIDAY, A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING EAST WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCT. SNOW SHOWERS. SOME RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER SECTIONS OF NEPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS, WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z.

LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON,
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...MVFR...CHC IFR. SHOWERS/FOG.

FRI...MVFR/VFR. CHC SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD IFR VSBY.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PCF
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 242318
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
718 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TONIGHT
KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY BUT CHILLY. ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY, BRINGING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO
THE AREA.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
0715 PM UPDATE...ONLY A FEW VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS
AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING IN AND WILL BRING A CALM
AND TRANQUIL NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...1030 MB HIGH PARKED OVER CENTRAL NY WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT, KEEPING US QUIET AND DRY. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST. SO WHILE A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND NIGHT MAY
ALLOW FOR A FAST TEMP FALL AFTER SUNSET, TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES "WARMER" THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

TRICKY FORECAST WITH PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS ON THE FRONT AND BACK
END WITH MODERATE RAIN POTENTIAL AND EVEN THUNDER IN THE MIDDLE.
MUST FINALLY BE SPRING!

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ALLOW FOR
A SURGE OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE LIFT
FROM WAA ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN NY WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BOTH
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR JUST RAIN. OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
A BIT OF WET SNOW OR ICE AT THE ONSET, BUT THAT LOOKS TO BE LESS
LIKELY WITH A SLIGHTLY DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION BY AN
HOUR OR SO. IT WILL BE CLOSER HOWEVER OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE SURFACE TEMPS MAY BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING (33). WITH TEMPS SO
CLOSE, I WOULDN`T`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN HERE AT THE VERY ONSET. FOR NOW THINK RAIN IS MORE LIKELY AND
WILL WORD IT AS SUCH.


AFTER THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING,
MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AS WE GET INTO A DRY
SLOT. MEANWHILE A SHORT WAVE JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DIVE SOUTH IN THE MEAN TROF AND CREATE A SECOND
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS SECOND LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH THIS SURFACE TRACK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FIRST FOCUS
FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO CENTRAL NY. MEANWHILE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WE MAY BE JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OR TWO OVER NORTHEAST PA. MLCAPES GET INTO THE 100 TO 200 J/KG
RANGE, WITH LI`S NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK AND I ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FROM NEAR THE SCRANTON/WILKES-BARRE AREA EAST.

EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL SAG SOUTH AND EAST
OVER OUR AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES NORTHEAST,
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, OR AROUND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH FROM 12Z THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY. CLOSER TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHEAST, WITH THE
MINIMUM IN THE MIDDLE. FOR POSSIBLE SNOW MELT AND RAIN IMPACTS ON
AREA RIVERS, SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

FOLLOWING THE GFS SOLUTION THURSDAY NIGHT, RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW BUT AT THE SAME TIME PRECIP SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN FAST.
WE MAY SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMS ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NY, ACROSS
ONEIDA COUNTY DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. AFTER A LULL
EARLY FRIDAY, A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING EAST WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCT. SNOW SHOWERS. SOME RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER SECTIONS OF NEPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE UNLIMITED VFR WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL LOWER VFR CIGS
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS BECOMING LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST SITES WITH KSYR LIKELY REMAINING LOW
END VFR.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING S-SE 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FOR WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...MVFR...CHC IFR. SHOWERS/FOG.

FRI...MVFR/VFR. CHC SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD IFR VSBY.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PCF
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB/PCF
HYDROLOGY...JAB








000
FXUS61 KBGM 242318
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
718 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TONIGHT
KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY BUT CHILLY. ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY, BRINGING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO
THE AREA.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
0715 PM UPDATE...ONLY A FEW VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS
AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING IN AND WILL BRING A CALM
AND TRANQUIL NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...1030 MB HIGH PARKED OVER CENTRAL NY WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT, KEEPING US QUIET AND DRY. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST. SO WHILE A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND NIGHT MAY
ALLOW FOR A FAST TEMP FALL AFTER SUNSET, TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES "WARMER" THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

TRICKY FORECAST WITH PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS ON THE FRONT AND BACK
END WITH MODERATE RAIN POTENTIAL AND EVEN THUNDER IN THE MIDDLE.
MUST FINALLY BE SPRING!

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ALLOW FOR
A SURGE OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE LIFT
FROM WAA ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN NY WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BOTH
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR JUST RAIN. OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
A BIT OF WET SNOW OR ICE AT THE ONSET, BUT THAT LOOKS TO BE LESS
LIKELY WITH A SLIGHTLY DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION BY AN
HOUR OR SO. IT WILL BE CLOSER HOWEVER OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE SURFACE TEMPS MAY BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING (33). WITH TEMPS SO
CLOSE, I WOULDN`T`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN HERE AT THE VERY ONSET. FOR NOW THINK RAIN IS MORE LIKELY AND
WILL WORD IT AS SUCH.


AFTER THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING,
MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AS WE GET INTO A DRY
SLOT. MEANWHILE A SHORT WAVE JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DIVE SOUTH IN THE MEAN TROF AND CREATE A SECOND
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS SECOND LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH THIS SURFACE TRACK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FIRST FOCUS
FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO CENTRAL NY. MEANWHILE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WE MAY BE JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OR TWO OVER NORTHEAST PA. MLCAPES GET INTO THE 100 TO 200 J/KG
RANGE, WITH LI`S NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK AND I ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FROM NEAR THE SCRANTON/WILKES-BARRE AREA EAST.

EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL SAG SOUTH AND EAST
OVER OUR AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES NORTHEAST,
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, OR AROUND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH FROM 12Z THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY. CLOSER TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHEAST, WITH THE
MINIMUM IN THE MIDDLE. FOR POSSIBLE SNOW MELT AND RAIN IMPACTS ON
AREA RIVERS, SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

FOLLOWING THE GFS SOLUTION THURSDAY NIGHT, RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW BUT AT THE SAME TIME PRECIP SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN FAST.
WE MAY SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMS ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NY, ACROSS
ONEIDA COUNTY DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. AFTER A LULL
EARLY FRIDAY, A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING EAST WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCT. SNOW SHOWERS. SOME RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER SECTIONS OF NEPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE UNLIMITED VFR WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL LOWER VFR CIGS
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS BECOMING LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST SITES WITH KSYR LIKELY REMAINING LOW
END VFR.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING S-SE 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FOR WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...MVFR...CHC IFR. SHOWERS/FOG.

FRI...MVFR/VFR. CHC SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD IFR VSBY.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PCF
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB/PCF
HYDROLOGY...JAB








000
FXUS61 KBGM 242318
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
718 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TONIGHT
KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY BUT CHILLY. ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY, BRINGING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO
THE AREA.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
0715 PM UPDATE...ONLY A FEW VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS
AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING IN AND WILL BRING A CALM
AND TRANQUIL NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...1030 MB HIGH PARKED OVER CENTRAL NY WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT, KEEPING US QUIET AND DRY. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST. SO WHILE A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND NIGHT MAY
ALLOW FOR A FAST TEMP FALL AFTER SUNSET, TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES "WARMER" THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

TRICKY FORECAST WITH PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS ON THE FRONT AND BACK
END WITH MODERATE RAIN POTENTIAL AND EVEN THUNDER IN THE MIDDLE.
MUST FINALLY BE SPRING!

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ALLOW FOR
A SURGE OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE LIFT
FROM WAA ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN NY WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BOTH
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR JUST RAIN. OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
A BIT OF WET SNOW OR ICE AT THE ONSET, BUT THAT LOOKS TO BE LESS
LIKELY WITH A SLIGHTLY DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION BY AN
HOUR OR SO. IT WILL BE CLOSER HOWEVER OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE SURFACE TEMPS MAY BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING (33). WITH TEMPS SO
CLOSE, I WOULDN`T`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN HERE AT THE VERY ONSET. FOR NOW THINK RAIN IS MORE LIKELY AND
WILL WORD IT AS SUCH.


AFTER THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING,
MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AS WE GET INTO A DRY
SLOT. MEANWHILE A SHORT WAVE JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DIVE SOUTH IN THE MEAN TROF AND CREATE A SECOND
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS SECOND LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH THIS SURFACE TRACK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FIRST FOCUS
FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO CENTRAL NY. MEANWHILE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WE MAY BE JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OR TWO OVER NORTHEAST PA. MLCAPES GET INTO THE 100 TO 200 J/KG
RANGE, WITH LI`S NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK AND I ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FROM NEAR THE SCRANTON/WILKES-BARRE AREA EAST.

EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL SAG SOUTH AND EAST
OVER OUR AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES NORTHEAST,
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, OR AROUND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH FROM 12Z THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY. CLOSER TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHEAST, WITH THE
MINIMUM IN THE MIDDLE. FOR POSSIBLE SNOW MELT AND RAIN IMPACTS ON
AREA RIVERS, SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

FOLLOWING THE GFS SOLUTION THURSDAY NIGHT, RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW BUT AT THE SAME TIME PRECIP SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN FAST.
WE MAY SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMS ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NY, ACROSS
ONEIDA COUNTY DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. AFTER A LULL
EARLY FRIDAY, A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING EAST WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCT. SNOW SHOWERS. SOME RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER SECTIONS OF NEPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE UNLIMITED VFR WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL LOWER VFR CIGS
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS BECOMING LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST SITES WITH KSYR LIKELY REMAINING LOW
END VFR.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING S-SE 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FOR WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...MVFR...CHC IFR. SHOWERS/FOG.

FRI...MVFR/VFR. CHC SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD IFR VSBY.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PCF
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB/PCF
HYDROLOGY...JAB







000
FXUS61 KBGM 242318
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
718 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TONIGHT
KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY BUT CHILLY. ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY, BRINGING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO
THE AREA.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
0715 PM UPDATE...ONLY A FEW VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS
AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING IN AND WILL BRING A CALM
AND TRANQUIL NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...1030 MB HIGH PARKED OVER CENTRAL NY WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT, KEEPING US QUIET AND DRY. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST. SO WHILE A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND NIGHT MAY
ALLOW FOR A FAST TEMP FALL AFTER SUNSET, TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES "WARMER" THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

TRICKY FORECAST WITH PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS ON THE FRONT AND BACK
END WITH MODERATE RAIN POTENTIAL AND EVEN THUNDER IN THE MIDDLE.
MUST FINALLY BE SPRING!

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ALLOW FOR
A SURGE OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE LIFT
FROM WAA ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN NY WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BOTH
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR JUST RAIN. OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
A BIT OF WET SNOW OR ICE AT THE ONSET, BUT THAT LOOKS TO BE LESS
LIKELY WITH A SLIGHTLY DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION BY AN
HOUR OR SO. IT WILL BE CLOSER HOWEVER OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE SURFACE TEMPS MAY BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING (33). WITH TEMPS SO
CLOSE, I WOULDN`T`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN HERE AT THE VERY ONSET. FOR NOW THINK RAIN IS MORE LIKELY AND
WILL WORD IT AS SUCH.


AFTER THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING,
MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AS WE GET INTO A DRY
SLOT. MEANWHILE A SHORT WAVE JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DIVE SOUTH IN THE MEAN TROF AND CREATE A SECOND
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS SECOND LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH THIS SURFACE TRACK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FIRST FOCUS
FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO CENTRAL NY. MEANWHILE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WE MAY BE JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OR TWO OVER NORTHEAST PA. MLCAPES GET INTO THE 100 TO 200 J/KG
RANGE, WITH LI`S NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK AND I ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FROM NEAR THE SCRANTON/WILKES-BARRE AREA EAST.

EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL SAG SOUTH AND EAST
OVER OUR AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES NORTHEAST,
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, OR AROUND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH FROM 12Z THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY. CLOSER TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHEAST, WITH THE
MINIMUM IN THE MIDDLE. FOR POSSIBLE SNOW MELT AND RAIN IMPACTS ON
AREA RIVERS, SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

FOLLOWING THE GFS SOLUTION THURSDAY NIGHT, RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW BUT AT THE SAME TIME PRECIP SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN FAST.
WE MAY SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMS ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NY, ACROSS
ONEIDA COUNTY DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. AFTER A LULL
EARLY FRIDAY, A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING EAST WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCT. SNOW SHOWERS. SOME RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER SECTIONS OF NEPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE UNLIMITED VFR WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL LOWER VFR CIGS
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS BECOMING LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST SITES WITH KSYR LIKELY REMAINING LOW
END VFR.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING S-SE 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FOR WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...MVFR...CHC IFR. SHOWERS/FOG.

FRI...MVFR/VFR. CHC SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD IFR VSBY.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PCF
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB/PCF
HYDROLOGY...JAB







000
FXUS61 KBGM 241954
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
354 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TONIGHT
KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY BUT CHILLY. ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY, BRINGING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO
THE AREA.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
115 PM UPDATE...
1030 MB HIGH PARKED OVER CENTRAL NY WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT, KEEPING US QUIET AND DRY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL
ALSO SHIFT EAST. SO WHILE A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND NIGHT MAY ALLOW
FOR A FAST TEMP FALL AFTER SUNSET, TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 7
TO 10 DEGREES "WARMER" THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

TRICKY FORECAST WITH PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS ON THE FRONT AND BACK
END WITH MODERATE RAIN POTENTIAL AND EVEN THUNDER IN THE MIDDLE.
MUST FINALLY BE SPRING!

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ALLOW FOR
A SURGE OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE LIFT
FROM WAA ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN NY WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BOTH
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR JUST RAIN. OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
A BIT OF WET SNOW OR ICE AT THE ONSET, BUT THAT LOOKS TO BE LESS
LIKELY WITH A SLIGHTLY DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION BY AN
HOUR OR SO. IT WILL BE CLOSER HOWEVER OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE SURFACE TEMPS MAY BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING (33). WITH TEMPS SO
CLOSE, I WOULDN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN HERE AT THE VERY ONSET. FOR NOW THINK RAIN IS MORE LIKELY AND
WILL WORD IT AS SUCH.


AFTER THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING,
MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AS WE GET INTO A DRY
SLOT. MEANWHILE A SHORT WAVE JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DIVE SOUTH IN THE MEAN TROF AND CREATE A SECOND
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS SECOND LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH THIS SURFACE TRACK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FIRST FOCUS
FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO CENTRAL NY. MEANWHILE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WE MAY BE JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OR TWO OVER NORTHEAST PA. MLCAPES GET INTO THE 100 TO 200 J/KG
RANGE, WITH LI`S NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK AND I ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FROM NEAR THE SCRANTON/WILKES-BARRE AREA EAST.

EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL SAG SOUTH AND EAST
OVER OUR AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES NORTHEAST,
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, OR AROUND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH FROM 12Z THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY. CLOSER TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHEAST, WITH THE
MINIMUM IN THE MIDDLE. FOR POSSIBLE SNOW MELT AND RAIN IMPACTS ON
AREA RIVERS, SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

FOLLOWING THE GFS SOLUTION THURSDAY NIGHT, RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW BUT AT THE SAME TIME PRECIP SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN FAST.
WE MAY SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMS ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NY, ACROSS
ONEIDA COUNTY DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. AFTER A LULL
EARLY FRIDAY, A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING EAST WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCT. SNOW SHOWERS. SOME RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER SECTIONS OF NEPA.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE UNLIMITED VFR WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL LOWER VFR CIGS
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS BECMG
MORE LIKELY AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING S-SE 10-15 KTS WITH HIER GUSTS AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...MVFR...CHC IFR. SHOWERS/FOG.

FRI...MVFR/VFR. CHC SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD IFR VSBY.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB
HYDROLOGY...JAB







000
FXUS61 KBGM 241954
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
354 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TONIGHT
KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY BUT CHILLY. ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY, BRINGING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO
THE AREA.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
115 PM UPDATE...
1030 MB HIGH PARKED OVER CENTRAL NY WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT, KEEPING US QUIET AND DRY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL
ALSO SHIFT EAST. SO WHILE A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND NIGHT MAY ALLOW
FOR A FAST TEMP FALL AFTER SUNSET, TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 7
TO 10 DEGREES "WARMER" THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

TRICKY FORECAST WITH PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS ON THE FRONT AND BACK
END WITH MODERATE RAIN POTENTIAL AND EVEN THUNDER IN THE MIDDLE.
MUST FINALLY BE SPRING!

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ALLOW FOR
A SURGE OF WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE LIFT
FROM WAA ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN NY WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BOTH
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR JUST RAIN. OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
A BIT OF WET SNOW OR ICE AT THE ONSET, BUT THAT LOOKS TO BE LESS
LIKELY WITH A SLIGHTLY DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION BY AN
HOUR OR SO. IT WILL BE CLOSER HOWEVER OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE SURFACE TEMPS MAY BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING (33). WITH TEMPS SO
CLOSE, I WOULDN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN HERE AT THE VERY ONSET. FOR NOW THINK RAIN IS MORE LIKELY AND
WILL WORD IT AS SUCH.


AFTER THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING,
MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AS WE GET INTO A DRY
SLOT. MEANWHILE A SHORT WAVE JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DIVE SOUTH IN THE MEAN TROF AND CREATE A SECOND
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS SECOND LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH THIS SURFACE TRACK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FIRST FOCUS
FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO CENTRAL NY. MEANWHILE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WE MAY BE JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OR TWO OVER NORTHEAST PA. MLCAPES GET INTO THE 100 TO 200 J/KG
RANGE, WITH LI`S NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK AND I ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FROM NEAR THE SCRANTON/WILKES-BARRE AREA EAST.

EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL SAG SOUTH AND EAST
OVER OUR AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES NORTHEAST,
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, OR AROUND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH FROM 12Z THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY. CLOSER TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHEAST, WITH THE
MINIMUM IN THE MIDDLE. FOR POSSIBLE SNOW MELT AND RAIN IMPACTS ON
AREA RIVERS, SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

FOLLOWING THE GFS SOLUTION THURSDAY NIGHT, RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW BUT AT THE SAME TIME PRECIP SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN FAST.
WE MAY SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMS ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NY, ACROSS
ONEIDA COUNTY DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. AFTER A LULL
EARLY FRIDAY, A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING EAST WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCT. SNOW SHOWERS. SOME RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER SECTIONS OF NEPA.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE UNLIMITED VFR WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL LOWER VFR CIGS
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS BECMG
MORE LIKELY AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING S-SE 10-15 KTS WITH HIER GUSTS AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...MVFR...CHC IFR. SHOWERS/FOG.

FRI...MVFR/VFR. CHC SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD IFR VSBY.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB
HYDROLOGY...JAB








000
FXUS61 KBGM 241859
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
259 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED
BY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115 PM UPDATE...
1030 MB HIGH PARKED OVER CENTRAL NY WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT, KEEPING US QUIET AND DRY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL
ALSO SHIFT EAST. SO WHILE A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND NIGHT MAY ALLOW
FOR A FAST TEMP FALL AFTER SUNSET, TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 7
TO 10 DEGREES "WARMER" THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIPRES SLIDES EAST TNGT AND EALRY TUE AS A COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER THE
WRN LAKES APRCHS. INITAL FRCG IN THE FORM OF A WRM FNT PUSHES THRU
WED. WED WILL START OFF COLD AND DRY SO WITH EVAP COOLING...SOME
MIXED PCPN PSBL AT THE ATART OF THE EVENT EARLY...BUT WITH STRONG
WAA PCPN SHD CHG OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE
A GOOD MOISTURE CONNECTION AND EVENT IS SHRT LIVED SO PCPN AMTS
WILL BE LGT REGARDLESS.

FNT DROPS BACK THRU EARLY THU PUTTING THE AREA BACK ON THE COLD
SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENT. WV DVLPG OVER THE MID MS VLY RUNS
NEWRD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE A BETTER
MOISTURE CONNECTION AND WILL GENERATE UP TO A HALF INCH OF PCPN
THRU 00Z FRI WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS OVER THE SRN AND ERN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD. TEMP FCST TRICKY AS THE COLD AIR FGTS TO RETURN AGAINST
THE APRCHG WV BUT ATTM IT LOOKS WRM ENUF FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE UNLIMITED VFR WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL LOWER VFR CIGS
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS BECMG
MORE LIKELY AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING S-SE 10-15 KTS WITH HIER GUSTS AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...MVFR...CHC IFR. SHOWERS/FOG.

FRI...MVFR/VFR. CHC SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD IFR VSBY.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB
HYDROLOGY...JAB








000
FXUS61 KBGM 241859
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
259 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED
BY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115 PM UPDATE...
1030 MB HIGH PARKED OVER CENTRAL NY WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT, KEEPING US QUIET AND DRY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL
ALSO SHIFT EAST. SO WHILE A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND NIGHT MAY ALLOW
FOR A FAST TEMP FALL AFTER SUNSET, TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 7
TO 10 DEGREES "WARMER" THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIPRES SLIDES EAST TNGT AND EALRY TUE AS A COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER THE
WRN LAKES APRCHS. INITAL FRCG IN THE FORM OF A WRM FNT PUSHES THRU
WED. WED WILL START OFF COLD AND DRY SO WITH EVAP COOLING...SOME
MIXED PCPN PSBL AT THE ATART OF THE EVENT EARLY...BUT WITH STRONG
WAA PCPN SHD CHG OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE
A GOOD MOISTURE CONNECTION AND EVENT IS SHRT LIVED SO PCPN AMTS
WILL BE LGT REGARDLESS.

FNT DROPS BACK THRU EARLY THU PUTTING THE AREA BACK ON THE COLD
SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENT. WV DVLPG OVER THE MID MS VLY RUNS
NEWRD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE A BETTER
MOISTURE CONNECTION AND WILL GENERATE UP TO A HALF INCH OF PCPN
THRU 00Z FRI WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS OVER THE SRN AND ERN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD. TEMP FCST TRICKY AS THE COLD AIR FGTS TO RETURN AGAINST
THE APRCHG WV BUT ATTM IT LOOKS WRM ENUF FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE UNLIMITED VFR WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL LOWER VFR CIGS
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS BECMG
MORE LIKELY AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING S-SE 10-15 KTS WITH HIER GUSTS AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...MVFR...CHC IFR. SHOWERS/FOG.

FRI...MVFR/VFR. CHC SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD IFR VSBY.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB
HYDROLOGY...JAB







000
FXUS61 KBGM 241859
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
259 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED
BY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115 PM UPDATE...
1030 MB HIGH PARKED OVER CENTRAL NY WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT, KEEPING US QUIET AND DRY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL
ALSO SHIFT EAST. SO WHILE A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND NIGHT MAY ALLOW
FOR A FAST TEMP FALL AFTER SUNSET, TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 7
TO 10 DEGREES "WARMER" THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIPRES SLIDES EAST TNGT AND EALRY TUE AS A COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER THE
WRN LAKES APRCHS. INITAL FRCG IN THE FORM OF A WRM FNT PUSHES THRU
WED. WED WILL START OFF COLD AND DRY SO WITH EVAP COOLING...SOME
MIXED PCPN PSBL AT THE ATART OF THE EVENT EARLY...BUT WITH STRONG
WAA PCPN SHD CHG OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE
A GOOD MOISTURE CONNECTION AND EVENT IS SHRT LIVED SO PCPN AMTS
WILL BE LGT REGARDLESS.

FNT DROPS BACK THRU EARLY THU PUTTING THE AREA BACK ON THE COLD
SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENT. WV DVLPG OVER THE MID MS VLY RUNS
NEWRD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE A BETTER
MOISTURE CONNECTION AND WILL GENERATE UP TO A HALF INCH OF PCPN
THRU 00Z FRI WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS OVER THE SRN AND ERN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD. TEMP FCST TRICKY AS THE COLD AIR FGTS TO RETURN AGAINST
THE APRCHG WV BUT ATTM IT LOOKS WRM ENUF FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF PATTERN WILL RELOAD DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL MARCH WEATHER WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF CNTRL/ERN
CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MINOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FAIRLY FAST AND TRANSIENT FLOW...BUT NOTHING MAJOR ON
THE NEAR HORIZON.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH COLD AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRI NGT INTO SAT
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS FOR CNY AND
NEPA.

SAT AFTN SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN STREAM SYSTEM COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE UNLIMITED VFR WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL LOWER VFR CIGS
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS BECMG
MORE LIKELY AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING S-SE 10-15 KTS WITH HIER GUSTS AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...MVFR...CHC IFR. SHOWERS/FOG.

FRI...MVFR/VFR. CHC SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD IFR VSBY.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM TUESDAY UPDATE...A BRIEF WARM SPELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S-LOW 50S IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
RAIN IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER FROM MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL WILL ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS ON WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. IF MORE RAIN OR MELT
OCCURS...THEN MINOR FLOODING OF OPEN RIVER CHANNELS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE.

WITH RIVERS EXPECTED TO RISE BY SEVERAL FEET...LINGERING ICE ON
THE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND MOVE. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING CAUSED BY ICE JAMS...AND THIS SITUATION
MEANS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE COMMON JAMMING AREAS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB
HYDROLOGY...JAB








000
FXUS61 KBGM 241720
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
120 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED
BY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115 PM UPDATE...
1030 MB HIGH PARKED OVER CENTRAL NY WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT, KEEPING US QUIET AND DRY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL
ALSO SHIFT EAST. SO WHILE A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND NIGHT MAY ALLOW
FOR A FAST TEMP FALL AFTER SUNSET, TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 7
TO 10 DEGREES "WARMER" THAN THIS MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES SLIDES EAST TNGT AND EALRY TUE AS A COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER THE
WRN LAKES APRCHS. INITAL FRCG IN THE FORM OF A WRM FNT PUSHES THRU
WED. WED WILL START OFF COLD AND DRY SO WITH EVAP COOLING...SOME
MIXED PCPN PSBL AT THE ATART OF THE EVENT EARLY...BUT WITH STRONG
WAA PCPN SHD CHG OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE
A GOOD MOISTURE CONNECTION AND EVENT IS SHRT LIVED SO PCPN AMTS
WILL BE LGT REGARDLESS.

FNT DROPS BACK THRU EARLY THU PUTTING THE AREA BACK ON THE COLD
SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENT. WV DVLPG OVER THE MID MS VLY RUNS
NEWRD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE A BETTER
MOISTURE CONNECTION AND WILL GENERATE UP TO A HALF INCH OF PCPN
THRU 00Z FRI WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS OVER THE SRN AND ERN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD. TEMP FCST TRICKY AS THE COLD AIR FGTS TO RETURN AGAINST
THE APRCHG WV BUT ATTM IT LOOKS WRM ENUF FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
245 PM MON UPDATE... AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE
SHORT-TERM FCST PD...IT APPEARS LIKELY WE`LL GO BACK INTO A
STRETCH OF BLO NORMAL TEMPS FOR LATE MAR. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH OUR NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
PROGGED TO PUSH SEWD OUT OF CNTRL/ERN CANADA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...LINGERING LGT PCPN THU NGT INTO FRI WILL
PROBABLY TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE RGN. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/PSBL CLOSED
LOW FROM THE NW FRI NGT INTO SAT...SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCTD
SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS.

SAT AFTN THROUGH MOST OF SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE
PT...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN
STREAM WV COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND BRINGING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW
CLOUDS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH LWR CLDS...PDS OF
RAIN...AND PSBLY AREAS OF FOG.

FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
3 PM MONDAY UPDATE... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID
WATER FROM EXISTING SNOW PACK ALONG WITH SOME RAIN (AROUND A HALF
OF AN INCH) COULD ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS FROM WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES ARE LIKELY...AND THERE EXISTS A CHANCE FOR
SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE HEADWATER TRIBUTARIES. RIVER RISES
COULD ALSO CAUSE THE MOVEMENT OF ANY EXISTING ICE FLOES ON THE
RIVERS...AND POSSIBLE JAM RELATED FLOODING. CLOSE MONITORING OF
THIS SITUATION IS ADVISED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 241720
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
120 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED
BY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115 PM UPDATE...
1030 MB HIGH PARKED OVER CENTRAL NY WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT, KEEPING US QUIET AND DRY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL
ALSO SHIFT EAST. SO WHILE A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND NIGHT MAY ALLOW
FOR A FAST TEMP FALL AFTER SUNSET, TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 7
TO 10 DEGREES "WARMER" THAN THIS MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES SLIDES EAST TNGT AND EALRY TUE AS A COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER THE
WRN LAKES APRCHS. INITAL FRCG IN THE FORM OF A WRM FNT PUSHES THRU
WED. WED WILL START OFF COLD AND DRY SO WITH EVAP COOLING...SOME
MIXED PCPN PSBL AT THE ATART OF THE EVENT EARLY...BUT WITH STRONG
WAA PCPN SHD CHG OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE
A GOOD MOISTURE CONNECTION AND EVENT IS SHRT LIVED SO PCPN AMTS
WILL BE LGT REGARDLESS.

FNT DROPS BACK THRU EARLY THU PUTTING THE AREA BACK ON THE COLD
SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENT. WV DVLPG OVER THE MID MS VLY RUNS
NEWRD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE A BETTER
MOISTURE CONNECTION AND WILL GENERATE UP TO A HALF INCH OF PCPN
THRU 00Z FRI WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS OVER THE SRN AND ERN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD. TEMP FCST TRICKY AS THE COLD AIR FGTS TO RETURN AGAINST
THE APRCHG WV BUT ATTM IT LOOKS WRM ENUF FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
245 PM MON UPDATE... AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE
SHORT-TERM FCST PD...IT APPEARS LIKELY WE`LL GO BACK INTO A
STRETCH OF BLO NORMAL TEMPS FOR LATE MAR. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH OUR NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
PROGGED TO PUSH SEWD OUT OF CNTRL/ERN CANADA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...LINGERING LGT PCPN THU NGT INTO FRI WILL
PROBABLY TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE RGN. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/PSBL CLOSED
LOW FROM THE NW FRI NGT INTO SAT...SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCTD
SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS.

SAT AFTN THROUGH MOST OF SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE
PT...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN
STREAM WV COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND BRINGING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW
CLOUDS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH LWR CLDS...PDS OF
RAIN...AND PSBLY AREAS OF FOG.

FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
3 PM MONDAY UPDATE... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID
WATER FROM EXISTING SNOW PACK ALONG WITH SOME RAIN (AROUND A HALF
OF AN INCH) COULD ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS FROM WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES ARE LIKELY...AND THERE EXISTS A CHANCE FOR
SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE HEADWATER TRIBUTARIES. RIVER RISES
COULD ALSO CAUSE THE MOVEMENT OF ANY EXISTING ICE FLOES ON THE
RIVERS...AND POSSIBLE JAM RELATED FLOODING. CLOSE MONITORING OF
THIS SITUATION IS ADVISED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 241720
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
120 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED
BY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115 PM UPDATE...
1030 MB HIGH PARKED OVER CENTRAL NY WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT, KEEPING US QUIET AND DRY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL
ALSO SHIFT EAST. SO WHILE A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND NIGHT MAY ALLOW
FOR A FAST TEMP FALL AFTER SUNSET, TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 7
TO 10 DEGREES "WARMER" THAN THIS MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES SLIDES EAST TNGT AND EALRY TUE AS A COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER THE
WRN LAKES APRCHS. INITAL FRCG IN THE FORM OF A WRM FNT PUSHES THRU
WED. WED WILL START OFF COLD AND DRY SO WITH EVAP COOLING...SOME
MIXED PCPN PSBL AT THE ATART OF THE EVENT EARLY...BUT WITH STRONG
WAA PCPN SHD CHG OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE
A GOOD MOISTURE CONNECTION AND EVENT IS SHRT LIVED SO PCPN AMTS
WILL BE LGT REGARDLESS.

FNT DROPS BACK THRU EARLY THU PUTTING THE AREA BACK ON THE COLD
SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENT. WV DVLPG OVER THE MID MS VLY RUNS
NEWRD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE A BETTER
MOISTURE CONNECTION AND WILL GENERATE UP TO A HALF INCH OF PCPN
THRU 00Z FRI WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS OVER THE SRN AND ERN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD. TEMP FCST TRICKY AS THE COLD AIR FGTS TO RETURN AGAINST
THE APRCHG WV BUT ATTM IT LOOKS WRM ENUF FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
245 PM MON UPDATE... AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE
SHORT-TERM FCST PD...IT APPEARS LIKELY WE`LL GO BACK INTO A
STRETCH OF BLO NORMAL TEMPS FOR LATE MAR. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH OUR NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
PROGGED TO PUSH SEWD OUT OF CNTRL/ERN CANADA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...LINGERING LGT PCPN THU NGT INTO FRI WILL
PROBABLY TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE RGN. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/PSBL CLOSED
LOW FROM THE NW FRI NGT INTO SAT...SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCTD
SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS.

SAT AFTN THROUGH MOST OF SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE
PT...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN
STREAM WV COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND BRINGING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW
CLOUDS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH LWR CLDS...PDS OF
RAIN...AND PSBLY AREAS OF FOG.

FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
3 PM MONDAY UPDATE... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID
WATER FROM EXISTING SNOW PACK ALONG WITH SOME RAIN (AROUND A HALF
OF AN INCH) COULD ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS FROM WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES ARE LIKELY...AND THERE EXISTS A CHANCE FOR
SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE HEADWATER TRIBUTARIES. RIVER RISES
COULD ALSO CAUSE THE MOVEMENT OF ANY EXISTING ICE FLOES ON THE
RIVERS...AND POSSIBLE JAM RELATED FLOODING. CLOSE MONITORING OF
THIS SITUATION IS ADVISED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 241452
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1052 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED
BY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1050 AM UPDATE...
AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
NY AND THE FINGER LAKES. THE DECK IS THICK ENOUGH BASED ON OBS TO
PRODUCE AN HOUR OR TWO OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT THEN SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY. ASIDE FROM A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY
FORECAST, EVERYTHING ELSE IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS
BELOW.


WV SLIDING ALONG A FNTL BNDRY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS MRNG WITH PCPN REMAING SOUTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR. SECOND WV
LTR TODAY WILL PUSH EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. FOR THE FCST AREA...VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNDER HIPRES WILL KEEP AREA DRY AND GNRLY
SUNNY...ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS XPCTD OVER THE SRN ZONES THRU THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES SLIDES EAST TNGT AND EALRY TUE AS A COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER THE
WRN LAKES APRCHS. INITAL FRCG IN THE FORM OF A WRM FNT PUSHES THRU
WED. WED WILL START OFF COLD AND DRY SO WITH EVAP COOLING...SOME
MIXED PCPN PSBL AT THE ATART OF THE EVENT EARLY...BUT WITH STRONG
WAA PCPN SHD CHG OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE
A GOOD MOISTURE CONNECTION AND EVENT IS SHRT LIVED SO PCPN AMTS
WILL BE LGT REGARDLESS.

FNT DROPS BACK THRU EARLY THU PUTTING THE AREA BACK ON THE COLD
SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENT. WV DVLPG OVER THE MID MS VLY RUNS
NEWRD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE A BETTER
MOISTURE CONNECTION AND WILL GENERATE UP TO A HALF INCH OF PCPN
THRU 00Z FRI WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS OVER THE SRN AND ERN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD. TEMP FCST TRICKY AS THE COLD AIR FGTS TO RETURN AGAINST
THE APRCHG WV BUT ATTM IT LOOKS WRM ENUF FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
245 PM MON UPDATE... AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE
SHORT-TERM FCST PD...IT APPEARS LIKELY WE`LL GO BACK INTO A
STRETCH OF BLO NORMAL TEMPS FOR LATE MAR. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH OUR NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
PROGGED TO PUSH SEWD OUT OF CNTRL/ERN CANADA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...LINGERING LGT PCPN THU NGT INTO FRI WILL
PROBABLY TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE RGN. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/PSBL CLOSED
LOW FROM THE NW FRI NGT INTO SAT...SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCTD
SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS.

SAT AFTN THROUGH MOST OF SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE
PT...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN
STREAM WV COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND BRINGING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW
CLOUDS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH LWR CLDS...PDS OF
RAIN...AND PSBLY AREAS OF FOG.

FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
3 PM MONDAY UPDATE... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID
WATER FROM EXISTING SNOW PACK ALONG WITH SOME RAIN (AROUND A HALF
OF AN INCH) COULD ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS FROM WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES ARE LIKELY...AND THERE EXISTS A CHANCE FOR
SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE HEADWATER TRIBUTARIES. RIVER RISES
COULD ALSO CAUSE THE MOVEMENT OF ANY EXISTING ICE FLOES ON THE
RIVERS...AND POSSIBLE JAM RELATED FLOODING. CLOSE MONITORING OF
THIS SITUATION IS ADVISED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 241452
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1052 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED
BY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1050 AM UPDATE...
AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
NY AND THE FINGER LAKES. THE DECK IS THICK ENOUGH BASED ON OBS TO
PRODUCE AN HOUR OR TWO OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT THEN SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY. ASIDE FROM A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY
FORECAST, EVERYTHING ELSE IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS
BELOW.


WV SLIDING ALONG A FNTL BNDRY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS MRNG WITH PCPN REMAING SOUTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR. SECOND WV
LTR TODAY WILL PUSH EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. FOR THE FCST AREA...VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNDER HIPRES WILL KEEP AREA DRY AND GNRLY
SUNNY...ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS XPCTD OVER THE SRN ZONES THRU THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES SLIDES EAST TNGT AND EALRY TUE AS A COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER THE
WRN LAKES APRCHS. INITAL FRCG IN THE FORM OF A WRM FNT PUSHES THRU
WED. WED WILL START OFF COLD AND DRY SO WITH EVAP COOLING...SOME
MIXED PCPN PSBL AT THE ATART OF THE EVENT EARLY...BUT WITH STRONG
WAA PCPN SHD CHG OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE
A GOOD MOISTURE CONNECTION AND EVENT IS SHRT LIVED SO PCPN AMTS
WILL BE LGT REGARDLESS.

FNT DROPS BACK THRU EARLY THU PUTTING THE AREA BACK ON THE COLD
SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENT. WV DVLPG OVER THE MID MS VLY RUNS
NEWRD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE A BETTER
MOISTURE CONNECTION AND WILL GENERATE UP TO A HALF INCH OF PCPN
THRU 00Z FRI WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS OVER THE SRN AND ERN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD. TEMP FCST TRICKY AS THE COLD AIR FGTS TO RETURN AGAINST
THE APRCHG WV BUT ATTM IT LOOKS WRM ENUF FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
245 PM MON UPDATE... AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE
SHORT-TERM FCST PD...IT APPEARS LIKELY WE`LL GO BACK INTO A
STRETCH OF BLO NORMAL TEMPS FOR LATE MAR. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH OUR NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
PROGGED TO PUSH SEWD OUT OF CNTRL/ERN CANADA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...LINGERING LGT PCPN THU NGT INTO FRI WILL
PROBABLY TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE RGN. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/PSBL CLOSED
LOW FROM THE NW FRI NGT INTO SAT...SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCTD
SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS.

SAT AFTN THROUGH MOST OF SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE
PT...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN
STREAM WV COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND BRINGING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW
CLOUDS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH LWR CLDS...PDS OF
RAIN...AND PSBLY AREAS OF FOG.

FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
3 PM MONDAY UPDATE... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID
WATER FROM EXISTING SNOW PACK ALONG WITH SOME RAIN (AROUND A HALF
OF AN INCH) COULD ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS FROM WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES ARE LIKELY...AND THERE EXISTS A CHANCE FOR
SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE HEADWATER TRIBUTARIES. RIVER RISES
COULD ALSO CAUSE THE MOVEMENT OF ANY EXISTING ICE FLOES ON THE
RIVERS...AND POSSIBLE JAM RELATED FLOODING. CLOSE MONITORING OF
THIS SITUATION IS ADVISED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 241452
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1052 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED
BY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1050 AM UPDATE...
AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
NY AND THE FINGER LAKES. THE DECK IS THICK ENOUGH BASED ON OBS TO
PRODUCE AN HOUR OR TWO OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT THEN SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY. ASIDE FROM A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY
FORECAST, EVERYTHING ELSE IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS
BELOW.


WV SLIDING ALONG A FNTL BNDRY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS MRNG WITH PCPN REMAING SOUTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR. SECOND WV
LTR TODAY WILL PUSH EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. FOR THE FCST AREA...VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNDER HIPRES WILL KEEP AREA DRY AND GNRLY
SUNNY...ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS XPCTD OVER THE SRN ZONES THRU THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES SLIDES EAST TNGT AND EALRY TUE AS A COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER THE
WRN LAKES APRCHS. INITAL FRCG IN THE FORM OF A WRM FNT PUSHES THRU
WED. WED WILL START OFF COLD AND DRY SO WITH EVAP COOLING...SOME
MIXED PCPN PSBL AT THE ATART OF THE EVENT EARLY...BUT WITH STRONG
WAA PCPN SHD CHG OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE
A GOOD MOISTURE CONNECTION AND EVENT IS SHRT LIVED SO PCPN AMTS
WILL BE LGT REGARDLESS.

FNT DROPS BACK THRU EARLY THU PUTTING THE AREA BACK ON THE COLD
SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENT. WV DVLPG OVER THE MID MS VLY RUNS
NEWRD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE A BETTER
MOISTURE CONNECTION AND WILL GENERATE UP TO A HALF INCH OF PCPN
THRU 00Z FRI WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS OVER THE SRN AND ERN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD. TEMP FCST TRICKY AS THE COLD AIR FGTS TO RETURN AGAINST
THE APRCHG WV BUT ATTM IT LOOKS WRM ENUF FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
245 PM MON UPDATE... AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE
SHORT-TERM FCST PD...IT APPEARS LIKELY WE`LL GO BACK INTO A
STRETCH OF BLO NORMAL TEMPS FOR LATE MAR. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH OUR NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
PROGGED TO PUSH SEWD OUT OF CNTRL/ERN CANADA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...LINGERING LGT PCPN THU NGT INTO FRI WILL
PROBABLY TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE RGN. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/PSBL CLOSED
LOW FROM THE NW FRI NGT INTO SAT...SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCTD
SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS.

SAT AFTN THROUGH MOST OF SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE
PT...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN
STREAM WV COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND BRINGING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW
CLOUDS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH LWR CLDS...PDS OF
RAIN...AND PSBLY AREAS OF FOG.

FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
3 PM MONDAY UPDATE... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID
WATER FROM EXISTING SNOW PACK ALONG WITH SOME RAIN (AROUND A HALF
OF AN INCH) COULD ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS FROM WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES ARE LIKELY...AND THERE EXISTS A CHANCE FOR
SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE HEADWATER TRIBUTARIES. RIVER RISES
COULD ALSO CAUSE THE MOVEMENT OF ANY EXISTING ICE FLOES ON THE
RIVERS...AND POSSIBLE JAM RELATED FLOODING. CLOSE MONITORING OF
THIS SITUATION IS ADVISED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240927
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
527 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED
BY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WV SLIDING ALONG A FNTL BNDRY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS MRNG WITH PCPN REMAING SOUTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR. SECOND WV
LTR TODAY WILL PUSH EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. FOR THE FCST AREA...VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNDER HIPRES WILL KEEP AREA DRY AND GNRLY
SUNNY...ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS XPCTD OVER THE SRN ZONES THRU THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES SLIDES EAST TNGT AND EALRY TUE AS A COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER THE
WRN LAKES APRCHS. INITAL FRCG IN THE FORM OF A WRM FNT PUSHES THRU
WED. WED WILL START OFF COLD AND DRY SO WITH EVAP COOLING...SOME
MIXED PCPN PSBL AT THE ATART OF THE EVENT EARLY...BUT WITH STRONG
WAA PCPN SHD CHG OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE
A GOOD MOISTURE CONNECTION AND EVENT IS SHRT LIVED SO PCPN AMTS
WILL BE LGT REGARDLESS.

FNT DROPS BACK THRU EARLY THU PUTTING THE AREA BACK ON THE COLD
SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENT. WV DVLPG OVER THE MID MS VLY RUNS
NEWRD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE A BETTER
MOISTURE CONNECTION AND WILL GENERATE UP TO A HALF INCH OF PCPN
THRU 00Z FRI WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS OVER THE SRN AND ERN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD. TEMP FCST TRICKY AS THE COLD AIR FGTS TO RETURN AGAINST
THE APRCHG WV BUT ATTM IT LOOKS WRM ENUF FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
245 PM MON UPDATE... AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE
SHORT-TERM FCST PD...IT APPEARS LIKELY WE`LL GO BACK INTO A
STRETCH OF BLO NORMAL TEMPS FOR LATE MAR. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH OUR NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
PROGGED TO PUSH SEWD OUT OF CNTRL/ERN CANADA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...LINGERING LGT PCPN THU NGT INTO FRI WILL
PROBABLY TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE RGN. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/PSBL CLOSED
LOW FROM THE NW FRI NGT INTO SAT...SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCTD
SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS.

SAT AFTN THROUGH MOST OF SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE
PT...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN
STREAM WV COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND BRINGING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW
CLOUDS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH LWR CLDS...PDS OF
RAIN...AND PSBLY AREAS OF FOG.

FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
3 PM MONDAY UPDATE... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID
WATER FROM EXISTING SNOW PACK ALONG WITH SOME RAIN (AROUND A HALF
OF AN INCH) COULD ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS FROM WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES ARE LIKELY...AND THERE EXISTS A CHANCE FOR
SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE HEADWATER TRIBUTARIES. RIVER RISES
COULD ALSO CAUSE THE MOVEMENT OF ANY EXISTING ICE FLOES ON THE
RIVERS...AND POSSIBLE JAM RELATED FLOODING. CLOSE MONITORING OF
THIS SITUATION IS ADVISED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 240927
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
527 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED
BY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WV SLIDING ALONG A FNTL BNDRY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS MRNG WITH PCPN REMAING SOUTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR. SECOND WV
LTR TODAY WILL PUSH EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. FOR THE FCST AREA...VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNDER HIPRES WILL KEEP AREA DRY AND GNRLY
SUNNY...ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS XPCTD OVER THE SRN ZONES THRU THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES SLIDES EAST TNGT AND EALRY TUE AS A COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER THE
WRN LAKES APRCHS. INITAL FRCG IN THE FORM OF A WRM FNT PUSHES THRU
WED. WED WILL START OFF COLD AND DRY SO WITH EVAP COOLING...SOME
MIXED PCPN PSBL AT THE ATART OF THE EVENT EARLY...BUT WITH STRONG
WAA PCPN SHD CHG OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE
A GOOD MOISTURE CONNECTION AND EVENT IS SHRT LIVED SO PCPN AMTS
WILL BE LGT REGARDLESS.

FNT DROPS BACK THRU EARLY THU PUTTING THE AREA BACK ON THE COLD
SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENT. WV DVLPG OVER THE MID MS VLY RUNS
NEWRD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE A BETTER
MOISTURE CONNECTION AND WILL GENERATE UP TO A HALF INCH OF PCPN
THRU 00Z FRI WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS OVER THE SRN AND ERN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD. TEMP FCST TRICKY AS THE COLD AIR FGTS TO RETURN AGAINST
THE APRCHG WV BUT ATTM IT LOOKS WRM ENUF FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
245 PM MON UPDATE... AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE
SHORT-TERM FCST PD...IT APPEARS LIKELY WE`LL GO BACK INTO A
STRETCH OF BLO NORMAL TEMPS FOR LATE MAR. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH OUR NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
PROGGED TO PUSH SEWD OUT OF CNTRL/ERN CANADA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...LINGERING LGT PCPN THU NGT INTO FRI WILL
PROBABLY TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE RGN. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/PSBL CLOSED
LOW FROM THE NW FRI NGT INTO SAT...SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCTD
SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS.

SAT AFTN THROUGH MOST OF SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE
PT...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN
STREAM WV COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND BRINGING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW
CLOUDS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH LWR CLDS...PDS OF
RAIN...AND PSBLY AREAS OF FOG.

FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
3 PM MONDAY UPDATE... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID
WATER FROM EXISTING SNOW PACK ALONG WITH SOME RAIN (AROUND A HALF
OF AN INCH) COULD ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS FROM WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES ARE LIKELY...AND THERE EXISTS A CHANCE FOR
SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE HEADWATER TRIBUTARIES. RIVER RISES
COULD ALSO CAUSE THE MOVEMENT OF ANY EXISTING ICE FLOES ON THE
RIVERS...AND POSSIBLE JAM RELATED FLOODING. CLOSE MONITORING OF
THIS SITUATION IS ADVISED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240927
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
527 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED
BY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WV SLIDING ALONG A FNTL BNDRY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS MRNG WITH PCPN REMAING SOUTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR. SECOND WV
LTR TODAY WILL PUSH EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. FOR THE FCST AREA...VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNDER HIPRES WILL KEEP AREA DRY AND GNRLY
SUNNY...ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS XPCTD OVER THE SRN ZONES THRU THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES SLIDES EAST TNGT AND EALRY TUE AS A COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER THE
WRN LAKES APRCHS. INITAL FRCG IN THE FORM OF A WRM FNT PUSHES THRU
WED. WED WILL START OFF COLD AND DRY SO WITH EVAP COOLING...SOME
MIXED PCPN PSBL AT THE ATART OF THE EVENT EARLY...BUT WITH STRONG
WAA PCPN SHD CHG OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE
A GOOD MOISTURE CONNECTION AND EVENT IS SHRT LIVED SO PCPN AMTS
WILL BE LGT REGARDLESS.

FNT DROPS BACK THRU EARLY THU PUTTING THE AREA BACK ON THE COLD
SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENT. WV DVLPG OVER THE MID MS VLY RUNS
NEWRD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE A BETTER
MOISTURE CONNECTION AND WILL GENERATE UP TO A HALF INCH OF PCPN
THRU 00Z FRI WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS OVER THE SRN AND ERN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD. TEMP FCST TRICKY AS THE COLD AIR FGTS TO RETURN AGAINST
THE APRCHG WV BUT ATTM IT LOOKS WRM ENUF FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
245 PM MON UPDATE... AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE
SHORT-TERM FCST PD...IT APPEARS LIKELY WE`LL GO BACK INTO A
STRETCH OF BLO NORMAL TEMPS FOR LATE MAR. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH OUR NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
PROGGED TO PUSH SEWD OUT OF CNTRL/ERN CANADA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...LINGERING LGT PCPN THU NGT INTO FRI WILL
PROBABLY TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE RGN. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/PSBL CLOSED
LOW FROM THE NW FRI NGT INTO SAT...SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCTD
SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS.

SAT AFTN THROUGH MOST OF SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE
PT...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN
STREAM WV COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND BRINGING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW
CLOUDS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH LWR CLDS...PDS OF
RAIN...AND PSBLY AREAS OF FOG.

FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
3 PM MONDAY UPDATE... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID
WATER FROM EXISTING SNOW PACK ALONG WITH SOME RAIN (AROUND A HALF
OF AN INCH) COULD ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS FROM WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES ARE LIKELY...AND THERE EXISTS A CHANCE FOR
SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE HEADWATER TRIBUTARIES. RIVER RISES
COULD ALSO CAUSE THE MOVEMENT OF ANY EXISTING ICE FLOES ON THE
RIVERS...AND POSSIBLE JAM RELATED FLOODING. CLOSE MONITORING OF
THIS SITUATION IS ADVISED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 240927
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
527 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED
BY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WV SLIDING ALONG A FNTL BNDRY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS MRNG WITH PCPN REMAING SOUTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR. SECOND WV
LTR TODAY WILL PUSH EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. FOR THE FCST AREA...VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNDER HIPRES WILL KEEP AREA DRY AND GNRLY
SUNNY...ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS XPCTD OVER THE SRN ZONES THRU THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES SLIDES EAST TNGT AND EALRY TUE AS A COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER THE
WRN LAKES APRCHS. INITAL FRCG IN THE FORM OF A WRM FNT PUSHES THRU
WED. WED WILL START OFF COLD AND DRY SO WITH EVAP COOLING...SOME
MIXED PCPN PSBL AT THE ATART OF THE EVENT EARLY...BUT WITH STRONG
WAA PCPN SHD CHG OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE
A GOOD MOISTURE CONNECTION AND EVENT IS SHRT LIVED SO PCPN AMTS
WILL BE LGT REGARDLESS.

FNT DROPS BACK THRU EARLY THU PUTTING THE AREA BACK ON THE COLD
SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENT. WV DVLPG OVER THE MID MS VLY RUNS
NEWRD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE A BETTER
MOISTURE CONNECTION AND WILL GENERATE UP TO A HALF INCH OF PCPN
THRU 00Z FRI WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS OVER THE SRN AND ERN ZONES LATE
IN THE PD. TEMP FCST TRICKY AS THE COLD AIR FGTS TO RETURN AGAINST
THE APRCHG WV BUT ATTM IT LOOKS WRM ENUF FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
245 PM MON UPDATE... AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE
SHORT-TERM FCST PD...IT APPEARS LIKELY WE`LL GO BACK INTO A
STRETCH OF BLO NORMAL TEMPS FOR LATE MAR. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH OUR NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
PROGGED TO PUSH SEWD OUT OF CNTRL/ERN CANADA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...LINGERING LGT PCPN THU NGT INTO FRI WILL
PROBABLY TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE RGN. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/PSBL CLOSED
LOW FROM THE NW FRI NGT INTO SAT...SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCTD
SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS.

SAT AFTN THROUGH MOST OF SUN LOOKS DRY FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE
PT...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS NY/PA. A FAST MOVG NRN
STREAM WV COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-SHSN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND BRINGING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW
CLOUDS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH LWR CLDS...PDS OF
RAIN...AND PSBLY AREAS OF FOG.

FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
3 PM MONDAY UPDATE... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID
WATER FROM EXISTING SNOW PACK ALONG WITH SOME RAIN (AROUND A HALF
OF AN INCH) COULD ENTER OUR RIVER SYSTEMS FROM WEDS NIGHT-THURS.
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES ARE LIKELY...AND THERE EXISTS A CHANCE FOR
SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE HEADWATER TRIBUTARIES. RIVER RISES
COULD ALSO CAUSE THE MOVEMENT OF ANY EXISTING ICE FLOES ON THE
RIVERS...AND POSSIBLE JAM RELATED FLOODING. CLOSE MONITORING OF
THIS SITUATION IS ADVISED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJP
HYDROLOGY...







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