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000
FXUS61 KBGM 190708
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
308 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY BRINGING COOL AIR BUT
SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST LATER TODAY AND ON
SATURDAY ALLOWING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AFTER A BRISK MORNING, TEMPS SHOULD RISE NICELY TODAY AS WAA
QUICKLY RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH IN THE DVLPG ZONAL FLOW. SKIES SHD
GNRLY BE CLR AFTER ANY MRNG FOG...ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS PSBL IN
THE WAA PTRN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

DEEP SWLY FLOW DVLPS SAT AHD OF A BROAD TROF DROPPING INTO THE
LAKES. SOME RDGG OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE FNT PARALLELING THE FLOW
WILL SLOW THE FWRD MVMT OF THE FNT KEEPING SAT DRY ACROSS THE FCST
AREA.

TIMING OF THE FNT DFCLT AT THIS RANGE BUT IT APPEARS THAT
PERHAPS A LDG TROF MAY TRIGGER SHWRS WELL AHD OF THE FNT EARLY
SUN...FLWD BY ANT CONV ALONG WITH THE FNT LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY
MON. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE LEFT THE POPS AS IS FOR SUN ALONG WITH
SOME ISLTD TRW. AS IS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...INSTABILITY LOOKS
MRGNL BUT SHEAR IS IMPRSV SO ANY CONV THAT FIRES COULD POTENTIALLY
BECOME SVR. FOR NOW...THREAT IS LIMIED SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF
THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS FCST PD BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW EXCEPTIONS.
PATCHY STRATO-CU ACRS THE RGN PRIMARILY OVER THE WRN CATSKILLS/NE
PA AND PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. CAN`T RULE
OUT BRIEF MVFR DUE TO CIGS BUT ONLY SITE WE MENTIONED IT WAS AT
AVP. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AT ELM WHERE ARE VLY FOG AND IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CONDITIONS BLO AIRPORT MINS EARLY THIS
MRNG. TDA...XPCT MAINLY SKC CNTRL NY WITH SCT CU ACRS THE FAR SRN
TIER AND NE PA. LOW LVL MSTR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT IN ON SELY FLOW
FRI NGT WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR CIGS TO PORTIONS OF THE
RGN...ATTM IT APPEARS THIS DECK WILL MOVE INTO AVP BEFORE 06Z.
WINDS L&V TNGT...BECMG SELY THIS AFTN 5-10 KTS...INCREASING TNGT
TO 10-15 KTS.


OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ018-025-036-
     037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 190708
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
308 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY BRINGING COOL AIR BUT
SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST LATER TODAY AND ON
SATURDAY ALLOWING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AFTER A BRISK MORNING, TEMPS SHOULD RISE NICELY TODAY AS WAA
QUICKLY RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH IN THE DVLPG ZONAL FLOW. SKIES SHD
GNRLY BE CLR AFTER ANY MRNG FOG...ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS PSBL IN
THE WAA PTRN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

DEEP SWLY FLOW DVLPS SAT AHD OF A BROAD TROF DROPPING INTO THE
LAKES. SOME RDGG OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE FNT PARALLELING THE FLOW
WILL SLOW THE FWRD MVMT OF THE FNT KEEPING SAT DRY ACROSS THE FCST
AREA.

TIMING OF THE FNT DFCLT AT THIS RANGE BUT IT APPEARS THAT
PERHAPS A LDG TROF MAY TRIGGER SHWRS WELL AHD OF THE FNT EARLY
SUN...FLWD BY ANT CONV ALONG WITH THE FNT LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY
MON. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE LEFT THE POPS AS IS FOR SUN ALONG WITH
SOME ISLTD TRW. AS IS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...INSTABILITY LOOKS
MRGNL BUT SHEAR IS IMPRSV SO ANY CONV THAT FIRES COULD POTENTIALLY
BECOME SVR. FOR NOW...THREAT IS LIMIED SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF
THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS FCST PD BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW EXCEPTIONS.
PATCHY STRATO-CU ACRS THE RGN PRIMARILY OVER THE WRN CATSKILLS/NE
PA AND PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. CAN`T RULE
OUT BRIEF MVFR DUE TO CIGS BUT ONLY SITE WE MENTIONED IT WAS AT
AVP. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AT ELM WHERE ARE VLY FOG AND IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CONDITIONS BLO AIRPORT MINS EARLY THIS
MRNG. TDA...XPCT MAINLY SKC CNTRL NY WITH SCT CU ACRS THE FAR SRN
TIER AND NE PA. LOW LVL MSTR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT IN ON SELY FLOW
FRI NGT WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR CIGS TO PORTIONS OF THE
RGN...ATTM IT APPEARS THIS DECK WILL MOVE INTO AVP BEFORE 06Z.
WINDS L&V TNGT...BECMG SELY THIS AFTN 5-10 KTS...INCREASING TNGT
TO 10-15 KTS.


OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ018-025-036-
     037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 190545
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FROST BY DAWN FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
900 PM UPDATE...
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE, A PREVAILING
THEME OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. THE PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS IS
PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE GRIDS, SO WE NEEDED
TO MAKE SOME SIZABLE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH ABOUT 6Z.

EXCEPT FOR SOME TWEAKS TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS BASED ON THE DISTANCE
BETWEEN CURRENT TEMPS AND FORECAST MINS, THE FORECAST FROM 6Z-12Z
DID NOT REQUIRE MUCH ALTERATION.

345 PM UPDATE...
FRONT HAS FINISHED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND SHALLOW POST
FRONTAL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD. AS EXPECTED...SPRINKLES WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN /AND
NOW ABSENT/...SO MENTION OF THEM HAS NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND BANKING
INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS
GOOD FOR FALLING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKY. FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY
IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST CORNER
TOWARDS BOONVILLE AND FORESTPORT...SO FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO WARNING. FOR FROST ADVISORY DECISION...FOCUS HAS BEEN
PLACED ON WHERE SKY IS LIKELY TO CLEAR QUICKLY...AND GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS INCLUDES ONONDAGA-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA- MADISON-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO. COMPARED TO
THESE COUNTIES...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE MORE POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW /INSTEAD OF CALM/...AND LOWERING DEW POINTS
TO HINDER FROST FORMATION. STILL POSSIBLE...BUT FIGURING ON PATCHY
AT BEST. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. CONTINUING EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...WYOMING VALLEY AND WAYNE-PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THUS EVEN PATCHY
FROST HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS FCST PD BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW EXCEPTIONS.
PATCHY STRATO-CU ACRS THE RGN PRIMARILY OVER THE WRN CATSKILLS/NE
PA AND PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. CAN`T RULE
OUT BRIEF MVFR DUE TO CIGS BUT ONLY SITE WE MENTIONED IT WAS AT
AVP. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AT ELM WHERE ARE VLY FOG AND IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CONDITIONS BLO AIRPORT MINS EARLY THIS
MRNG. TDA...XPCT MAINLY SKC CNTRL NY WITH SCT CU ACRS THE FAR SRN
TIER AND NE PA. LOW LVL MSTR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT IN ON SELY FLOW
FRI NGT WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR CIGS TO PORTIONS OF THE
RGN...ATTM IT APPEARS THIS DECK WILL MOVE INTO AVP BEFORE 06Z.
WINDS L&V TNGT...BECMG SELY THIS AFTN 5-10 KTS...INCREASING TNGT
TO 10-15 KTS.


OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ018-025-036-
     037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 190545
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FROST BY DAWN FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
900 PM UPDATE...
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE, A PREVAILING
THEME OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. THE PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS IS
PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE GRIDS, SO WE NEEDED
TO MAKE SOME SIZABLE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH ABOUT 6Z.

EXCEPT FOR SOME TWEAKS TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS BASED ON THE DISTANCE
BETWEEN CURRENT TEMPS AND FORECAST MINS, THE FORECAST FROM 6Z-12Z
DID NOT REQUIRE MUCH ALTERATION.

345 PM UPDATE...
FRONT HAS FINISHED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND SHALLOW POST
FRONTAL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD. AS EXPECTED...SPRINKLES WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN /AND
NOW ABSENT/...SO MENTION OF THEM HAS NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND BANKING
INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS
GOOD FOR FALLING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKY. FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY
IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST CORNER
TOWARDS BOONVILLE AND FORESTPORT...SO FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO WARNING. FOR FROST ADVISORY DECISION...FOCUS HAS BEEN
PLACED ON WHERE SKY IS LIKELY TO CLEAR QUICKLY...AND GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS INCLUDES ONONDAGA-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA- MADISON-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO. COMPARED TO
THESE COUNTIES...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE MORE POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW /INSTEAD OF CALM/...AND LOWERING DEW POINTS
TO HINDER FROST FORMATION. STILL POSSIBLE...BUT FIGURING ON PATCHY
AT BEST. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. CONTINUING EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...WYOMING VALLEY AND WAYNE-PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THUS EVEN PATCHY
FROST HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS FCST PD BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW EXCEPTIONS.
PATCHY STRATO-CU ACRS THE RGN PRIMARILY OVER THE WRN CATSKILLS/NE
PA AND PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. CAN`T RULE
OUT BRIEF MVFR DUE TO CIGS BUT ONLY SITE WE MENTIONED IT WAS AT
AVP. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AT ELM WHERE ARE VLY FOG AND IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CONDITIONS BLO AIRPORT MINS EARLY THIS
MRNG. TDA...XPCT MAINLY SKC CNTRL NY WITH SCT CU ACRS THE FAR SRN
TIER AND NE PA. LOW LVL MSTR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT IN ON SELY FLOW
FRI NGT WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR CIGS TO PORTIONS OF THE
RGN...ATTM IT APPEARS THIS DECK WILL MOVE INTO AVP BEFORE 06Z.
WINDS L&V TNGT...BECMG SELY THIS AFTN 5-10 KTS...INCREASING TNGT
TO 10-15 KTS.


OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ018-025-036-
     037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 190102
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
902 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FROST BY DAWN FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
900 PM UPDATE...
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE, A PREVAILING
THEME OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. THE PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS IS
PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE GRIDS, SO WE NEEDED
TO MAKE SOME SIZABLE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH ABOUT 6Z.

EXCEPT FOR SOME TWEAKS TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS BASED ON THE DISTANCE
BETWEEN CURRENT TEMPS AND FORECAST MINS, THE FORECAST FROM 6Z-12Z
DID NOT REQUIRE MUCH ALTERATION.

345 PM UPDATE...
FRONT HAS FINISHED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND SHALLOW POST
FRONTAL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD. AS EXPECTED...SPRINKLES WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN /AND
NOW ABSENT/...SO MENTION OF THEM HAS NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND BANKING
INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS
GOOD FOR FALLING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKY. FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY
IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST CORNER
TOWARDS BOONVILLE AND FORESTPORT...SO FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO WARNING. FOR FROST ADVISORY DECISION...FOCUS HAS BEEN
PLACED ON WHERE SKY IS LIKELY TO CLEAR QUICKLY...AND GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS INCLUDES ONONDAGA-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA- MADISON-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO. COMPARED TO
THESE COUNTIES...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE MORE POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW /INSTEAD OF CALM/...AND LOWERING DEW POINTS
TO HINDER FROST FORMATION. STILL POSSIBLE...BUT FIGURING ON PATCHY
AT BEST. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. CONTINUING EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...WYOMING VALLEY AND WAYNE-PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THUS EVEN PATCHY
FROST HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... STUBBORN MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HANG ARND OVER
NY`S SRN TIER (KITH/KELM/KBGM) TIL 03-06Z...BEFORE FINALLY ERODING.

LTR TNT...ALTHOUGH VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE...VLY FOG FORMATION IS
ONCE AGN ANTICIPATED AT KELM (PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS)...ALBEIT A BIT
LTR THAN RECENT NGTS/EARLY MORNINGS (NOT FORMING TIL 08-09Z).

ON FRI...ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF AT KELM...VFR SHOULD DOMINATE
AGN...WITH JUST SCTD-BKN FAIR WX CU.

SFC WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
PICKING UP AGN ON FRI (5-8 KT) OUT OF THE SE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-025-036-
     037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 190102
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
902 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FROST BY DAWN FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
900 PM UPDATE...
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE, A PREVAILING
THEME OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. THE PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS IS
PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE GRIDS, SO WE NEEDED
TO MAKE SOME SIZABLE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH ABOUT 6Z.

EXCEPT FOR SOME TWEAKS TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS BASED ON THE DISTANCE
BETWEEN CURRENT TEMPS AND FORECAST MINS, THE FORECAST FROM 6Z-12Z
DID NOT REQUIRE MUCH ALTERATION.

345 PM UPDATE...
FRONT HAS FINISHED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND SHALLOW POST
FRONTAL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD. AS EXPECTED...SPRINKLES WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN /AND
NOW ABSENT/...SO MENTION OF THEM HAS NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND BANKING
INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS
GOOD FOR FALLING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKY. FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY
IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST CORNER
TOWARDS BOONVILLE AND FORESTPORT...SO FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO WARNING. FOR FROST ADVISORY DECISION...FOCUS HAS BEEN
PLACED ON WHERE SKY IS LIKELY TO CLEAR QUICKLY...AND GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS INCLUDES ONONDAGA-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA- MADISON-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO. COMPARED TO
THESE COUNTIES...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE MORE POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW /INSTEAD OF CALM/...AND LOWERING DEW POINTS
TO HINDER FROST FORMATION. STILL POSSIBLE...BUT FIGURING ON PATCHY
AT BEST. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. CONTINUING EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...WYOMING VALLEY AND WAYNE-PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THUS EVEN PATCHY
FROST HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... STUBBORN MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HANG ARND OVER
NY`S SRN TIER (KITH/KELM/KBGM) TIL 03-06Z...BEFORE FINALLY ERODING.

LTR TNT...ALTHOUGH VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE...VLY FOG FORMATION IS
ONCE AGN ANTICIPATED AT KELM (PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS)...ALBEIT A BIT
LTR THAN RECENT NGTS/EARLY MORNINGS (NOT FORMING TIL 08-09Z).

ON FRI...ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF AT KELM...VFR SHOULD DOMINATE
AGN...WITH JUST SCTD-BKN FAIR WX CU.

SFC WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
PICKING UP AGN ON FRI (5-8 KT) OUT OF THE SE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-025-036-
     037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 182341
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
741 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FROST BY DAWN FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
FRONT HAS FINISHED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND SHALLOW POST
FRONTAL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD. AS EXPECTED...SPRINKLES WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN /AND
NOW ABSENT/...SO MENTION OF THEM HAS NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND BANKING
INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS
GOOD FOR FALLING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKY. FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY
IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST CORNER
TOWARDS BOONVILLE AND FORESTPORT...SO FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO WARNING. FOR FROST ADVISORY DECISION...FOCUS HAS BEEN
PLACED ON WHERE SKY IS LIKELY TO CLEAR QUICKLY...AND GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS INCLUDES ONONDAGA-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA- MADISON-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO. COMPARED TO
THESE COUNTIES...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE MORE POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW /INSTEAD OF CALM/...AND LOWERING DEW POINTS
TO HINDER FROST FORMATION. STILL POSSIBLE...BUT FIGURING ON PATCHY
AT BEST. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. CONTINUING EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...WYOMING VALLEY AND WAYNE-PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THUS EVEN PATCHY
FROST HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... STUBBORN MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HANG ARND OVER
NY`S SRN TIER (KITH/KELM/KBGM) TIL 03-06Z...BEFORE FINALLY ERODING.

LTR TNT...ALTHOUGH VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE...VLY FOG FORMATION IS
ONCE AGN ANTICIPATED AT KELM (PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS)...ALBEIT A BIT
LTR THAN RECENT NGTS/EARLY MORNINGS (NOT FORMING TIL 08-09Z).

ON FRI...ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF AT KELM...VFR SHOULD DOMINATE
AGN...WITH JUST SCTD-BKN FAIR WX CU.

SFC WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
PICKING UP AGN ON FRI (5-8 KT) OUT OF THE SE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-025-036-
     037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 182341
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
741 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FROST BY DAWN FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
FRONT HAS FINISHED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND SHALLOW POST
FRONTAL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD. AS EXPECTED...SPRINKLES WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN /AND
NOW ABSENT/...SO MENTION OF THEM HAS NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND BANKING
INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS
GOOD FOR FALLING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKY. FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY
IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST CORNER
TOWARDS BOONVILLE AND FORESTPORT...SO FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO WARNING. FOR FROST ADVISORY DECISION...FOCUS HAS BEEN
PLACED ON WHERE SKY IS LIKELY TO CLEAR QUICKLY...AND GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS INCLUDES ONONDAGA-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA- MADISON-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO. COMPARED TO
THESE COUNTIES...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE MORE POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW /INSTEAD OF CALM/...AND LOWERING DEW POINTS
TO HINDER FROST FORMATION. STILL POSSIBLE...BUT FIGURING ON PATCHY
AT BEST. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. CONTINUING EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...WYOMING VALLEY AND WAYNE-PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THUS EVEN PATCHY
FROST HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... STUBBORN MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HANG ARND OVER
NY`S SRN TIER (KITH/KELM/KBGM) TIL 03-06Z...BEFORE FINALLY ERODING.

LTR TNT...ALTHOUGH VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE...VLY FOG FORMATION IS
ONCE AGN ANTICIPATED AT KELM (PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS)...ALBEIT A BIT
LTR THAN RECENT NGTS/EARLY MORNINGS (NOT FORMING TIL 08-09Z).

ON FRI...ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF AT KELM...VFR SHOULD DOMINATE
AGN...WITH JUST SCTD-BKN FAIR WX CU.

SFC WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
PICKING UP AGN ON FRI (5-8 KT) OUT OF THE SE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-025-036-
     037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 182339
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
739 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FROST BY DAWN FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
FRONT HAS FINISHED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND SHALLOW POST
FRONTAL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD. AS EXPECTED...SPRINKLES WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN /AND
NOW ABSENT/...SO MENTION OF THEM HAS NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND BANKING
INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS
GOOD FOR FALLING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKY. FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY
IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST CORNER
TOWARDS BOONVILLE AND FORESTPORT...SO FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO WARNING. FOR FROST ADVISORY DECISION...FOCUS HAS BEEN
PLACED ON WHERE SKY IS LIKELY TO CLEAR QUICKLY...AND GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS INCLUDES ONONDAGA-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA- MADISON-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO. COMPARED TO
THESE COUNTIES...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE MORE POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW /INSTEAD OF CALM/...AND LOWERING DEW POINTS
TO HINDER FROST FORMATION. STILL POSSIBLE...BUT FIGURING ON PATCHY
AT BEST. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. CONTINUING EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...WYOMING VALLEY AND WAYNE-PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THUS EVEN PATCHY
FROST HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... STUBBORN MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HANG ARND OVER
NY`S SRN TIER (KITH/KELM/KBGM) TIL 03-06Z...BEFORE FINALLY ERODING.

LTR TNT...ALTHOUGH VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE...VLY FOG FORMATION IS
ONCE AGN ANTICIPATED AT KELM (PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS)...ALBEIT A BIT
LTR THAN RECENT NGTS/EARLY MORNINGS (NOT FORMING TIL 08-09Z).

ON FRI...ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF AT KELM...VFR SHOULD DOMINATE
AGN...WITH JUST SCTD-BKN FAIR WX CU.

SFC WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
PICKING UP AGN ON FRI (5-8 KT) OUT OF THE SE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-025-036-
     037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 182339
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
739 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FROST BY DAWN FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
FRONT HAS FINISHED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND SHALLOW POST
FRONTAL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD. AS EXPECTED...SPRINKLES WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN /AND
NOW ABSENT/...SO MENTION OF THEM HAS NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND BANKING
INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS
GOOD FOR FALLING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKY. FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY
IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST CORNER
TOWARDS BOONVILLE AND FORESTPORT...SO FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO WARNING. FOR FROST ADVISORY DECISION...FOCUS HAS BEEN
PLACED ON WHERE SKY IS LIKELY TO CLEAR QUICKLY...AND GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS INCLUDES ONONDAGA-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA- MADISON-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO. COMPARED TO
THESE COUNTIES...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE MORE POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW /INSTEAD OF CALM/...AND LOWERING DEW POINTS
TO HINDER FROST FORMATION. STILL POSSIBLE...BUT FIGURING ON PATCHY
AT BEST. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. CONTINUING EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...WYOMING VALLEY AND WAYNE-PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THUS EVEN PATCHY
FROST HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... STUBBORN MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HANG ARND OVER
NY`S SRN TIER (KITH/KELM/KBGM) TIL 03-06Z...BEFORE FINALLY ERODING.

LTR TNT...ALTHOUGH VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE...VLY FOG FORMATION IS
ONCE AGN ANTICIPATED AT KELM (PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS)...ALBEIT A BIT
LTR THAN RECENT NGTS/EARLY MORNINGS (NOT FORMING TIL 08-09Z).

ON FRI...ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF AT KELM...VFR SHOULD DOMINATE
AGN...WITH JUST SCTD-BKN FAIR WX CU.

SFC WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
PICKING UP AGN ON FRI (5-8 KT) OUT OF THE SE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-025-036-
     037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 181957
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FROST BY DAWN FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
FRONT HAS FINISHED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND SHALLOW POST
FRONTAL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD. AS EXPECTED...SPRINKLES WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN /AND
NOW ABSENT/...SO MENTION OF THEM HAS NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND BANKING
INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS
GOOD FOR FALLING DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING SKY. FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY
IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST CORNER
TOWARDS BOONVILLE AND FORESTPORT...SO FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO WARNING. FOR FROST ADVISORY DECISION...FOCUS HAS BEEN
PLACED ON WHERE SKY IS LIKELY TO CLEAR QUICKLY...AND GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS INCLUDES ONONDAGA-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA- MADISON-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO. COMPARED TO
THESE COUNTIES...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE MORE POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW /INSTEAD OF CALM/...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS
TO HINDER FROST FORMATION. STILL POSSIBLE...BUT FIGURING ON PATCHY
AT BEST. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. CONTINUING EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...WYOMING VALLEY AND WAYNE-PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THUS EVEN PATCHY
FROST HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
SHALLOW FRONT NOW SLIPPING THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WINDS
VEERING NORTHWEST-NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN VARIABLE OR LIGHT
NORTHEAST-EAST TONIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. KSYR-KRME-KITH
DEEP ENOUGH INTO THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS FOR MVFR CIG TO STILL
OCCUR NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TOO MUCH DRY AIR AND THUS REMAINING VFR. MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT KELM CAN MANAGE VALLEY FOG. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE BRINGING IN DRIER AIR...YET TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE FALLING QUICKLY. MODEL GUIDANCE HITS IT HARD...BUT
BECAUSE OF THE DRYING AIR MASS AND WIND DIRECTION...I DO NOT HAVE
SOLID CONFIDENCE IN IT. AT THIS POINT...I HAVE INCLUDED 08Z-12Z
TEMPO GROUP FOR LOW END IFR VIS. IT MAY BE RATHER BOUNCY IN-AND-
OUT DUE TO SHALLOWNESS OF NEAR SATURATED LAYER...AND PLENTY OF
VERY DRY AIR AND MODEST EASTERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-025-036-
     037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 181917
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
317 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR
TWO. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST
TO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY TWIN TIERS AND CATSKILLS
NORTHWARD. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA NOW...WITH SHALLOW POST FRONTAL
DECK OF CLOUDS BECOMING MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD.
HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEEN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK AND TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND DOWN...WHEREAS NORTHEAST PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WILL
GENERALLY HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S A FEW MORE HOURS. AS
EXPECTED...SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...AND BY 6PM
ANY MENTION OF THEM ARE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE AREA.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND EVEN THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT.
FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS GOOD FOR
FALLING DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING SKY. WILL BE MAKING FROST/FREEZE
DECISION VERY SOON.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECWMF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
SHALLOW FRONT NOW SLIPPING THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WINDS
VEERING NORTHWEST-NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN VARIABLE OR LIGHT
NORTHEAST-EAST TONIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. KSYR-KRME-KITH
DEEP ENOUGH INTO THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS FOR MVFR CIG TO STILL
OCCUR NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TOO MUCH DRY AIR AND THUS REMAINING VFR. MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT KELM CAN MANAGE VALLEY FOG. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE BRINGING IN DRIER AIR...YET TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE FALLING QUICKLY. MODEL GUIDANCE HITS IT HARD...BUT
BECAUSE OF THE DRYING AIR MASS AND WIND DIRECTION...I DO NOT HAVE
SOLID CONFIDENCE IN IT. AT THIS POINT...I HAVE INCLUDED 08Z-12Z
TEMPO GROUP FOR LOW END IFR VIS. IT MAY BE RATHER BOUNCY IN-AND-
OUT DUE TO SHALLOWNESS OF NEAR SATURATED LAYER...AND PLENTY OF
VERY DRY AIR AND MODEST EASTERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 181917
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
317 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR
TWO. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST
TO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY TWIN TIERS AND CATSKILLS
NORTHWARD. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA NOW...WITH SHALLOW POST FRONTAL
DECK OF CLOUDS BECOMING MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD.
HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEEN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK AND TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND DOWN...WHEREAS NORTHEAST PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WILL
GENERALLY HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S A FEW MORE HOURS. AS
EXPECTED...SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...AND BY 6PM
ANY MENTION OF THEM ARE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE AREA.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND EVEN THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT.
FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS GOOD FOR
FALLING DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING SKY. WILL BE MAKING FROST/FREEZE
DECISION VERY SOON.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECWMF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
SHALLOW FRONT NOW SLIPPING THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WINDS
VEERING NORTHWEST-NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN VARIABLE OR LIGHT
NORTHEAST-EAST TONIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. KSYR-KRME-KITH
DEEP ENOUGH INTO THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS FOR MVFR CIG TO STILL
OCCUR NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TOO MUCH DRY AIR AND THUS REMAINING VFR. MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT KELM CAN MANAGE VALLEY FOG. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE BRINGING IN DRIER AIR...YET TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE FALLING QUICKLY. MODEL GUIDANCE HITS IT HARD...BUT
BECAUSE OF THE DRYING AIR MASS AND WIND DIRECTION...I DO NOT HAVE
SOLID CONFIDENCE IN IT. AT THIS POINT...I HAVE INCLUDED 08Z-12Z
TEMPO GROUP FOR LOW END IFR VIS. IT MAY BE RATHER BOUNCY IN-AND-
OUT DUE TO SHALLOWNESS OF NEAR SATURATED LAYER...AND PLENTY OF
VERY DRY AIR AND MODEST EASTERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 181756
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR
TWO. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST
TO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY TWIN TIERS AND CATSKILLS
NORTHWARD. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA NOW...WITH SHALLOW POST FRONTAL
DECK OF CLOUDS BECOMING MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD.
HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEEN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK AND TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND DOWN...WHEREAS NORTHEAST PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WILL
GENERALLY HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S A FEW MORE HOURS. AS
EXPECTED...SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...AND BY 6PM
ANY MENTION OF THEM ARE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE AREA.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND EVEN THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT.
FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS GOOD FOR
FALLING DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING SKY. WILL BE MAKING FROST/FREEZE
DECISION VERY SOON.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV
MVG THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS
APRCH 16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. ENHANCED GRIDS A BIT
ON SUNDAY WITH LATEST MOS/WPC GUIDANCE AND ALSO BLENDED TO SMOOTH
IN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY
4...BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN THAT DAY...SO TREND IS BODING WELL FOR RAISING THE
NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
SHALLOW FRONT NOW SLIPPING THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WINDS
VEERING NORTHWEST-NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN VARIABLE OR LIGHT
NORTHEAST-EAST TONIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. KSYR-KRME-KITH
DEEP ENOUGH INTO THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS FOR MVFR CIG TO STILL
OCCUR NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TOO MUCH DRY AIR AND THUS REMAINING VFR. MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT KELM CAN MANAGE VALLEY FOG. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE BRINGING IN DRIER AIR...YET TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE FALLING QUICKLY. MODEL GUIDANCE HITS IT HARD...BUT
BECAUSE OF THE DRYING AIR MASS AND WIND DIRECTION...I DO NOT HAVE
SOLID CONFIDENCE IN IT. AT THIS POINT...I HAVE INCLUDED 08Z-12Z
TEMPO GROUP FOR LOW END IFR VIS. IT MAY BE RATHER BOUNCY IN-AND-
OUT DUE TO SHALLOWNESS OF NEAR SATURATED LAYER...AND PLENTY OF
VERY DRY AIR AND MODEST EASTERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB/KAH
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 181756
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR
TWO. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST
TO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY TWIN TIERS AND CATSKILLS
NORTHWARD. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA NOW...WITH SHALLOW POST FRONTAL
DECK OF CLOUDS BECOMING MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD.
HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEEN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK AND TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND DOWN...WHEREAS NORTHEAST PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WILL
GENERALLY HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S A FEW MORE HOURS. AS
EXPECTED...SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...AND BY 6PM
ANY MENTION OF THEM ARE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE AREA.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND EVEN THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT.
FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS GOOD FOR
FALLING DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING SKY. WILL BE MAKING FROST/FREEZE
DECISION VERY SOON.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV
MVG THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS
APRCH 16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. ENHANCED GRIDS A BIT
ON SUNDAY WITH LATEST MOS/WPC GUIDANCE AND ALSO BLENDED TO SMOOTH
IN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY
4...BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN THAT DAY...SO TREND IS BODING WELL FOR RAISING THE
NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
SHALLOW FRONT NOW SLIPPING THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WINDS
VEERING NORTHWEST-NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN VARIABLE OR LIGHT
NORTHEAST-EAST TONIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. KSYR-KRME-KITH
DEEP ENOUGH INTO THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS FOR MVFR CIG TO STILL
OCCUR NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TOO MUCH DRY AIR AND THUS REMAINING VFR. MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT KELM CAN MANAGE VALLEY FOG. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE BRINGING IN DRIER AIR...YET TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE FALLING QUICKLY. MODEL GUIDANCE HITS IT HARD...BUT
BECAUSE OF THE DRYING AIR MASS AND WIND DIRECTION...I DO NOT HAVE
SOLID CONFIDENCE IN IT. AT THIS POINT...I HAVE INCLUDED 08Z-12Z
TEMPO GROUP FOR LOW END IFR VIS. IT MAY BE RATHER BOUNCY IN-AND-
OUT DUE TO SHALLOWNESS OF NEAR SATURATED LAYER...AND PLENTY OF
VERY DRY AIR AND MODEST EASTERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB/KAH
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 181359
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
959 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NEW YORK. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST TO THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...MAINLY TWIN TIERS AND CATSKILLS NORTHWARD. DRY
WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS...PLACEMENT OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES...AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS NEEDED BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THE SURFACE FRONT IS JUST SLIPPING
THROUGH THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR /INCLUDING SYR ASOS IN THE LAST
HOUR/ AND WILL LOSE DEFINITION WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SHALLOWNESS OF FRONT WILL
PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SPRINKLES-LIGHT SHOWERS FROM
OCCURRING...AND EVEN THOSE MAINLY IN THE NEW YORK ZONES. THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...THE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA THE POST-
FRONTAL CLOUD DECK ADVECTS...THE HARDER TIME IT WILL HAVE
MAINTAINING ITSELF AS A SOLID OVERCAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
NOW IS HOW MUCH IMPACT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HAVE ON THE FROST
POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL LOOKING LIKE A MAINLY DRY COLD FNT DROPPING THRU TODAY. SOME
SPOTTY PCPN DVLPD ON THE SHRT TERM MODELS DESPITE THE FNT WASHING
OUT AND SHEARING AS IT DROPS SOUTH...SO WILL CONT WITH VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS AND LGT PCPN IN THE FCST. CRNT TIMING ON THE NAM WLD
HAVE THE FNT ENTERING THE NRN ZONES BEFORE 12Z...THEN CRASHING
THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. WIND SHFT AND CAA BHD THE FNT MAY
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NRN ZONES
TODAY...ESP FROM LATE MORNING ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLDEST NGT OF THE SEASON SO FAR TNGT WITH A 1025MB HIGH DROPPING
IN BHD THE FNT. WITH THE UPR TROF LINE OVER WRN NEW ENG...SFC FLOW
WILL BE MORE NELY PROVIDING IDEAL CAA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODIFICATION OF THE AIR. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS HWVR AS THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SLIPPED THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR A BIT FURTHER NORTH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS GUID
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WRMR THAT THE PRVS RUNS. THIS IS TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON COLD OUTBREAKS AS THE MODELS BACK OFF ON THEIR
INITIAL FCST. SO...WILL CONT WITH THE WATCH OVER THE NORTH...AND
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN TO FINALIZE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV MVG
THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS APRCH
16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. ENHANCED GRIDS A BIT
ON SUNDAY WITH LATEST MOS/WPC GUIDANCE AND ALSO BLENDED TO SMOOTH
IN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY
4...BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN THAT DAY...SO TREND IS BODING WELL FOR RAISING THE
NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG/LOW CIGS VCNTY KELM WILL BURN OFF BY
15Z. ELSEWHERE...A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
ALONG AND BEHIND A WEAK...SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH 18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SKIES
BECOMING VFR NO CIG. DENSE VALLEY FOG AT KELM MAY AGAIN BE A
PROBLEM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH DRY ADVECTION AND
NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE MAKES
THAT A LOW CONFIDENCE IDEA AT THIS TIME.

WINDS BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY
0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB/KAH
AVIATION...JAB







000
FXUS61 KBGM 181359
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
959 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NEW YORK. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST TO THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...MAINLY TWIN TIERS AND CATSKILLS NORTHWARD. DRY
WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS...PLACEMENT OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES...AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS NEEDED BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THE SURFACE FRONT IS JUST SLIPPING
THROUGH THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR /INCLUDING SYR ASOS IN THE LAST
HOUR/ AND WILL LOSE DEFINITION WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SHALLOWNESS OF FRONT WILL
PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SPRINKLES-LIGHT SHOWERS FROM
OCCURRING...AND EVEN THOSE MAINLY IN THE NEW YORK ZONES. THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...THE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA THE POST-
FRONTAL CLOUD DECK ADVECTS...THE HARDER TIME IT WILL HAVE
MAINTAINING ITSELF AS A SOLID OVERCAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
NOW IS HOW MUCH IMPACT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HAVE ON THE FROST
POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL LOOKING LIKE A MAINLY DRY COLD FNT DROPPING THRU TODAY. SOME
SPOTTY PCPN DVLPD ON THE SHRT TERM MODELS DESPITE THE FNT WASHING
OUT AND SHEARING AS IT DROPS SOUTH...SO WILL CONT WITH VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS AND LGT PCPN IN THE FCST. CRNT TIMING ON THE NAM WLD
HAVE THE FNT ENTERING THE NRN ZONES BEFORE 12Z...THEN CRASHING
THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. WIND SHFT AND CAA BHD THE FNT MAY
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NRN ZONES
TODAY...ESP FROM LATE MORNING ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLDEST NGT OF THE SEASON SO FAR TNGT WITH A 1025MB HIGH DROPPING
IN BHD THE FNT. WITH THE UPR TROF LINE OVER WRN NEW ENG...SFC FLOW
WILL BE MORE NELY PROVIDING IDEAL CAA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODIFICATION OF THE AIR. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS HWVR AS THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SLIPPED THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR A BIT FURTHER NORTH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS GUID
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WRMR THAT THE PRVS RUNS. THIS IS TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON COLD OUTBREAKS AS THE MODELS BACK OFF ON THEIR
INITIAL FCST. SO...WILL CONT WITH THE WATCH OVER THE NORTH...AND
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN TO FINALIZE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV MVG
THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS APRCH
16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. ENHANCED GRIDS A BIT
ON SUNDAY WITH LATEST MOS/WPC GUIDANCE AND ALSO BLENDED TO SMOOTH
IN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY
4...BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN THAT DAY...SO TREND IS BODING WELL FOR RAISING THE
NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG/LOW CIGS VCNTY KELM WILL BURN OFF BY
15Z. ELSEWHERE...A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
ALONG AND BEHIND A WEAK...SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH 18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SKIES
BECOMING VFR NO CIG. DENSE VALLEY FOG AT KELM MAY AGAIN BE A
PROBLEM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH DRY ADVECTION AND
NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE MAKES
THAT A LOW CONFIDENCE IDEA AT THIS TIME.

WINDS BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY
0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB/KAH
AVIATION...JAB








000
FXUS61 KBGM 181031
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
631 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER NEW YORK. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE A MAINLY DRY COLD FNT DROPPING THRU TODAY. SOME
SPOTTY PCPN DVLPD ON THE SHRT TERM MODELS DESPITE THE FNT WASHING
OUT AND SHEARING AS IT DROPS SOUTH...SO WILL CONT WITH VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS AND LGT PCPN IN THE FCST. CRNT TIMING ON THE NAM WLD
HAVE THE FNT ENTERING THE NRN ZONES BEFORE 12Z...THEN CRASHING
THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. WIND SHFT AND CAA BHD THE FNT MAY
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NRN ZONES
TODAY...ESP FROM LATE MORNING ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLDEST NGT OF THE SEASON SO FAR TNGT WITH A 1025MB HIGH DROPPING
IN BHD THE FNT. WITH THE UPR TROF LINE OVER WRN NEW ENG...SFC FLOW
WILL BE MORE NELY PROVIDING IDEAL CAA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODIFICATION OF THE AIR. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS HWVR AS THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SLIPPED THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR A BIT FURTHER NORTH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS GUID
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WRMR THAT THE PRVS RUNS. THIS IS TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON COLD OUTBREAKS AS THE MODELS BACK OFF ON THEIR
INITIAL FCST. SO...WILL CONT WITH THE WATCH OVER THE NORTH...AND
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN TO FINALIZE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV MVG
THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS APRCH
16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NOERTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. ENHANCED GRIDS A BIT
ON SUNDAY WITH LATEST MOS/WPC GUIDANCE AND ALSO BLENDED TO SMOOTH
IN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY
4...BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN THAT DAY...SO TREND IS BODING WELL FOR RAISING THE
NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG/LOW CIGS VCNTY KELM WILL BURN OFF BY
15Z. ELSEWHERE...A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
ALONG AND BEHIND A WEAK...SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH 18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SKIES
BECOMING VFR NO CIG. DENSE VALLEY FOG AT KELM MAY AGAIN BE A
PROBLEM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH DRY ADVECTION AND
NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE MAKES
THAT A LOW CONFIDENCE IDEA AT THIS TIME.

WINDS BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY
0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB/KAH
AVIATION...JAB







000
FXUS61 KBGM 181031
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
631 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER NEW YORK. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE A MAINLY DRY COLD FNT DROPPING THRU TODAY. SOME
SPOTTY PCPN DVLPD ON THE SHRT TERM MODELS DESPITE THE FNT WASHING
OUT AND SHEARING AS IT DROPS SOUTH...SO WILL CONT WITH VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS AND LGT PCPN IN THE FCST. CRNT TIMING ON THE NAM WLD
HAVE THE FNT ENTERING THE NRN ZONES BEFORE 12Z...THEN CRASHING
THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. WIND SHFT AND CAA BHD THE FNT MAY
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NRN ZONES
TODAY...ESP FROM LATE MORNING ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLDEST NGT OF THE SEASON SO FAR TNGT WITH A 1025MB HIGH DROPPING
IN BHD THE FNT. WITH THE UPR TROF LINE OVER WRN NEW ENG...SFC FLOW
WILL BE MORE NELY PROVIDING IDEAL CAA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODIFICATION OF THE AIR. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS HWVR AS THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SLIPPED THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR A BIT FURTHER NORTH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS GUID
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WRMR THAT THE PRVS RUNS. THIS IS TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON COLD OUTBREAKS AS THE MODELS BACK OFF ON THEIR
INITIAL FCST. SO...WILL CONT WITH THE WATCH OVER THE NORTH...AND
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN TO FINALIZE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV MVG
THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS APRCH
16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NOERTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. ENHANCED GRIDS A BIT
ON SUNDAY WITH LATEST MOS/WPC GUIDANCE AND ALSO BLENDED TO SMOOTH
IN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY
4...BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN THAT DAY...SO TREND IS BODING WELL FOR RAISING THE
NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG/LOW CIGS VCNTY KELM WILL BURN OFF BY
15Z. ELSEWHERE...A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
ALONG AND BEHIND A WEAK...SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH 18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SKIES
BECOMING VFR NO CIG. DENSE VALLEY FOG AT KELM MAY AGAIN BE A
PROBLEM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH DRY ADVECTION AND
NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE MAKES
THAT A LOW CONFIDENCE IDEA AT THIS TIME.

WINDS BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY
0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB/KAH
AVIATION...JAB








000
FXUS61 KBGM 180725
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
325 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER NEW YORK. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE A MAINLY DRY COLD FNT DROPPING THRU TODAY. SOME
SPOTTY PCPN DVLPD ON THE SHRT TERM MODELS DESPITE THE FNT WASHING
OUT AND SHEARING AS IT DROPS SOUTH...SO WILL CONT WITH VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS AND LGT PCPN IN THE FCST. CRNT TIMING ON THE NAM WLD
HAVE THE FNT ENTERING THE NRN ZONES BEFORE 12Z...THEN CRASHING
THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. WIND SHFT AND CAA BHD THE FNT MAY
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NRN ZONES
TODAY...ESP FROM LATE MORNING ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLDEST NGT OF THE SEASON SO FAR TNGT WITH A 1025MB HIGH DROPPING
IN BHD THE FNT. WITH THE UPR TROF LINE OVER WRN NEW ENG...SFC FLOW
WILL BE MORE NELY PROVIDING IDEAL CAA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODIFICATION OF THE AIR. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS HWVR AS THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SLIPPED THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR A BIT FURTHER NORTH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS GUID
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WRMR THAT THE PRVS RUNS. THIS IS TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON COLD OUTBREAKS AS THE MODELS BACK OFF ON THEIR
INITIAL FCST. SO...WILL CONT WITH THE WATCH OVER THE NORTH...AND
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN TO FINALIZE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV MVG
THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS APRCH
16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NOERTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. ENHANCED GRIDS A BIT
ON SUNDAY WITH LATEST MOS/WPC GUIDANCE AND ALSO BLENDED TO SMOOTH
IN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY
4...BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN THAT DAY...SO TREND IS BODING WELL FOR RAISING THE
NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS ARE INDICATING VFR-MVFR CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY...MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY IN THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME WHERE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS LOWER LEVEL MOIST
LAYER FAIRLY WELL AND SUGGEST CIGS IN THE FL015-025 RANGE BEFORE
MIXING OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR KSYR-KRME WITH EARLIEST
ARRIVAL TIME. FURTHER SOUTH...TIME OF DAY WILL TEND TO MIX OUT
BASE OF CLOUDS. KELM...AS USUAL IS THE WILD CARD. WE SEE PLENTY OF
TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR
ALTERNATE FUEL/AIRPORT MIN RESTRICTION AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN. AS FRONT APPROACHES...IT MAY BE A LITTLE
MIXY TO PRECLUDE FOG LOCKING IN...SO FOR NOW WILL INDICATE
VARIABILITY IN THE FCST.

ALL CIGS SLOWLY LIFT AND BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SKC AT SUNSET.

LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY 0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB/KAH
AVIATION...JAB







000
FXUS61 KBGM 180725
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
325 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER NEW YORK. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE A MAINLY DRY COLD FNT DROPPING THRU TODAY. SOME
SPOTTY PCPN DVLPD ON THE SHRT TERM MODELS DESPITE THE FNT WASHING
OUT AND SHEARING AS IT DROPS SOUTH...SO WILL CONT WITH VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS AND LGT PCPN IN THE FCST. CRNT TIMING ON THE NAM WLD
HAVE THE FNT ENTERING THE NRN ZONES BEFORE 12Z...THEN CRASHING
THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. WIND SHFT AND CAA BHD THE FNT MAY
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NRN ZONES
TODAY...ESP FROM LATE MORNING ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLDEST NGT OF THE SEASON SO FAR TNGT WITH A 1025MB HIGH DROPPING
IN BHD THE FNT. WITH THE UPR TROF LINE OVER WRN NEW ENG...SFC FLOW
WILL BE MORE NELY PROVIDING IDEAL CAA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODIFICATION OF THE AIR. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS HWVR AS THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SLIPPED THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR A BIT FURTHER NORTH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS GUID
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WRMR THAT THE PRVS RUNS. THIS IS TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON COLD OUTBREAKS AS THE MODELS BACK OFF ON THEIR
INITIAL FCST. SO...WILL CONT WITH THE WATCH OVER THE NORTH...AND
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN TO FINALIZE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV MVG
THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS APRCH
16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NOERTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. ENHANCED GRIDS A BIT
ON SUNDAY WITH LATEST MOS/WPC GUIDANCE AND ALSO BLENDED TO SMOOTH
IN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY
4...BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN THAT DAY...SO TREND IS BODING WELL FOR RAISING THE
NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS ARE INDICATING VFR-MVFR CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY...MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY IN THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME WHERE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS LOWER LEVEL MOIST
LAYER FAIRLY WELL AND SUGGEST CIGS IN THE FL015-025 RANGE BEFORE
MIXING OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR KSYR-KRME WITH EARLIEST
ARRIVAL TIME. FURTHER SOUTH...TIME OF DAY WILL TEND TO MIX OUT
BASE OF CLOUDS. KELM...AS USUAL IS THE WILD CARD. WE SEE PLENTY OF
TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR
ALTERNATE FUEL/AIRPORT MIN RESTRICTION AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN. AS FRONT APPROACHES...IT MAY BE A LITTLE
MIXY TO PRECLUDE FOG LOCKING IN...SO FOR NOW WILL INDICATE
VARIABILITY IN THE FCST.

ALL CIGS SLOWLY LIFT AND BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SKC AT SUNSET.

LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY 0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB/KAH
AVIATION...JAB








000
FXUS61 KBGM 180708
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
308 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER NEW YORK. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

STILL LOOKING LIKE A MAINLY DRY COLD FNT DROPPING THRU TODAY. SOME
SPOTTY PCPN DVLPD ON THE SHRT TERM MODELS DESPITE THE FNT WASHING
OUT AND SHEARING AS IT DROPS SOUTH...SO WILL CONT WITH VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS AND LGT PCPN IN THE FCST. CRNT TIMING ON THE NAM WLD
HAVE THE FNT ENTERING THE NRN ZONES BEFORE 12Z...THEN CRASHING
THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. WIND SHFT AND CAA BHD THE FNT MAY
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NRN ZONES
TODAY...ESP FROM LATE MORNING ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

COLDEST NGT OF THE SEASON SO FAR TNGT WITH A 1025MB HIGH DROPPING
IN BHD THE FNT. WITH THE UPR TROF LINE OVER WRN NEW ENG...SFC FLOW
WILL BE MORE NELY PROVIDING IDEAL CAA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODIFICATION OF THE AIR. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS HWVR AS THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SLIPPED THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR A BIT FURTHER NORTH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS GUID
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WRMR THAT THE PRVS RUNS. THIS IS TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON COLD OUTBREAKS AS THE MODELS BACK OFF ON THEIR
INITIAL FCST. SO...WILL CONT WITH THE WATCH OVER THE NORTH...AND
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN TO FINALIZE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV MVG
THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS APRCH
16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NOERTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS ARE INDICATING VFR-MVFR CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY...MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY IN THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME WHERE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS LOWER LEVEL MOIST
LAYER FAIRLY WELL AND SUGGEST CIGS IN THE FL015-025 RANGE BEFORE
MIXING OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR KSYR-KRME WITH EARLIEST
ARRIVAL TIME. FURTHER SOUTH...TIME OF DAY WILL TEND TO MIX OUT
BASE OF CLOUDS. KELM...AS USUAL IS THE WILD CARD. WE SEE PLENTY OF
TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR
ALTERNATE FUEL/AIRPORT MIN RESTRICTION AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN. AS FRONT APPROACHES...IT MAY BE A LITTLE
MIXY TO PRECLUDE FOG LOCKING IN...SO FOR NOW WILL INDICATE
VARIABILITY IN THE FCST.

ALL CIGS SLOWLY LIFT AND BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SKC AT SUNSET.

LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY 0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...JAB








000
FXUS61 KBGM 180708
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
308 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER NEW YORK. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

STILL LOOKING LIKE A MAINLY DRY COLD FNT DROPPING THRU TODAY. SOME
SPOTTY PCPN DVLPD ON THE SHRT TERM MODELS DESPITE THE FNT WASHING
OUT AND SHEARING AS IT DROPS SOUTH...SO WILL CONT WITH VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS AND LGT PCPN IN THE FCST. CRNT TIMING ON THE NAM WLD
HAVE THE FNT ENTERING THE NRN ZONES BEFORE 12Z...THEN CRASHING
THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. WIND SHFT AND CAA BHD THE FNT MAY
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NRN ZONES
TODAY...ESP FROM LATE MORNING ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

COLDEST NGT OF THE SEASON SO FAR TNGT WITH A 1025MB HIGH DROPPING
IN BHD THE FNT. WITH THE UPR TROF LINE OVER WRN NEW ENG...SFC FLOW
WILL BE MORE NELY PROVIDING IDEAL CAA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODIFICATION OF THE AIR. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS HWVR AS THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SLIPPED THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR A BIT FURTHER NORTH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS GUID
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WRMR THAT THE PRVS RUNS. THIS IS TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON COLD OUTBREAKS AS THE MODELS BACK OFF ON THEIR
INITIAL FCST. SO...WILL CONT WITH THE WATCH OVER THE NORTH...AND
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN TO FINALIZE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV MVG
THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS APRCH
16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NOERTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS ARE INDICATING VFR-MVFR CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY...MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY IN THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME WHERE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS LOWER LEVEL MOIST
LAYER FAIRLY WELL AND SUGGEST CIGS IN THE FL015-025 RANGE BEFORE
MIXING OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR KSYR-KRME WITH EARLIEST
ARRIVAL TIME. FURTHER SOUTH...TIME OF DAY WILL TEND TO MIX OUT
BASE OF CLOUDS. KELM...AS USUAL IS THE WILD CARD. WE SEE PLENTY OF
TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR
ALTERNATE FUEL/AIRPORT MIN RESTRICTION AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN. AS FRONT APPROACHES...IT MAY BE A LITTLE
MIXY TO PRECLUDE FOG LOCKING IN...SO FOR NOW WILL INDICATE
VARIABILITY IN THE FCST.

ALL CIGS SLOWLY LIFT AND BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SKC AT SUNSET.

LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY 0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...JAB







000
FXUS61 KBGM 180548
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SKY WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY IN UPSTATE NEW YORK.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CLEARING SKY AND FROST IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
840 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE HANGING ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED...WHICH HAS BEEN A
BIT OF A TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND,
ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY AND RAISED IMMEDIATE TERM
TEMPERATURES, WHILE SLIGHTLY BOOSTING OVERNIGHT MINS.

2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CHARGE FOR NOW...BUT A COLD FRONT SEPARATES
OUR PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH FROM A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH WITH A
SOURCE REGION IN THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THAT FRONT
STRETCHES FROM UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. IT IS SAGGING OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH A BIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED.

SCT-BKN CELLULAR CUMULUS CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...LEADING TO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES
VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE SLOWER PACE OF THE FRONT...MOST
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WHICH WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES..EXCEPT
MORE TOWARDS UPPER 40S IN THE FINGER LAKES TO SYRACUSE AREAS WHERE
PRE-FRONTAL FLOW...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS...AND INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE WILL ALL HOLD BACK THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS
MUCH COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIP DOWN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR MAINLY JUST IN THE LOW
LEVELS...1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL ACTUALLY BARELY BUDGE. IT
WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY ALOFT. SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT WILL THUS
KEEP ITS IMPACT TO JUST A DECK OF CLOUDS WITH DEPTH LIMITED TO
BELOW 10 KFT AGL...AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS.
ALSO...IN THE NORTH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED...IN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LEVEL OR FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE NORTHEAST PA WILL HAVE A MORE NORMAL
DIURNAL TIMING FOR HIGHS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...MID 60S TO LOW 70S
IN NEPA TO SULLIVAN CO NY...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FARTHER NORTH
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...
A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER POCKETS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS HAVE ALREADY HAD A LITTLE PATCHY FROST...BUT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF OUR AREA MAY JOIN THEM BY DAWN FRIDAY. LARGE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO WESTERN ONTARIO
TODAY...HAS A SOURCE REGION FROM FAR NORTHERN CANADA. RADIATIONAL
COOLING DIRECTLY UNDER IT EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTED IN AN 11Z
READING OF 19 DEGREES AT LYNN LAKE IN NORTHERN MANITOBA. OF COURSE
WE WILL NOT GET THAT COLD...BUT IT IS A HINT THAT THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IS A DIFFERENT ANIMAL FROM THE ONE CURRENTLY IN OUR
REGION /OF PACIFIC ORIGIN/.

AFTER PASSAGE OF SHALLOW COLD FRONT THURSDAY...REMAINDER OF CLOUDS
WILL BREAK UP THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR LOWERING DEW POINTS AND STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THEIR
LOWEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH WIDESPREAD 30S FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD AND PROBABLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN
NORTHERN REACHES OF ONEIDA COUNTY. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED
FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW YORK ZONES
AND NORTHERN TIER OF PA...WHILE MOSTLY NOT GETTING TO
FREEZING...SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF FROST /THE FIRST
TIME THE SEASON FOR MOST OF THOSE AREAS/. MEANWHILE...FARTHER
SOUTH IN PA...IN THE WYOMING VALLEY AND PIKE COUNTY...FROST WILL
BE NOT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE.

QUIET FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTING TO THE COAST...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.
MARINE LAYER AIR UPSLOPING AGAINST AND THEN OVER THE CATSKILLS-
POCONOS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS ARE INDICATING VFR-MVFR CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY...MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY IN THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME WHERE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS LOWER LEVEL MOIST
LAYER FAIRLY WELL AND SUGGEST CIGS IN THE FL015-025 RANGE BEFORE
MIXING OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR KSYR-KRME WITH EARLIEST
ARRIVAL TIME. FURTHER SOUTH...TIME OF DAY WILL TEND TO MIX OUT
BASE OF CLOUDS. KELM...AS USUAL IS THE WILD CARD. WE SEE PLENTY OF
TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR
ALTERNATE FUEL/AIRPORT MIN RESTRICTION AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN. AS FRONT APPROACHES...IT MAY BE A LITTLE
MIXY TO PRECLUDE FOG LOCKING IN...SO FOR NOW WILL INDICATE
VARIABILITY IN THE FCST.

ALL CIGS SLOWLY LIFT AND BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SKC AT SUNSET.

LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY 0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...JAB







000
FXUS61 KBGM 180548
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SKY WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY IN UPSTATE NEW YORK.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CLEARING SKY AND FROST IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
840 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE HANGING ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED...WHICH HAS BEEN A
BIT OF A TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND,
ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY AND RAISED IMMEDIATE TERM
TEMPERATURES, WHILE SLIGHTLY BOOSTING OVERNIGHT MINS.

2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CHARGE FOR NOW...BUT A COLD FRONT SEPARATES
OUR PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH FROM A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH WITH A
SOURCE REGION IN THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THAT FRONT
STRETCHES FROM UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. IT IS SAGGING OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH A BIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED.

SCT-BKN CELLULAR CUMULUS CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...LEADING TO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES
VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE SLOWER PACE OF THE FRONT...MOST
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WHICH WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES..EXCEPT
MORE TOWARDS UPPER 40S IN THE FINGER LAKES TO SYRACUSE AREAS WHERE
PRE-FRONTAL FLOW...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS...AND INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE WILL ALL HOLD BACK THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS
MUCH COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIP DOWN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR MAINLY JUST IN THE LOW
LEVELS...1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL ACTUALLY BARELY BUDGE. IT
WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY ALOFT. SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT WILL THUS
KEEP ITS IMPACT TO JUST A DECK OF CLOUDS WITH DEPTH LIMITED TO
BELOW 10 KFT AGL...AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS.
ALSO...IN THE NORTH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED...IN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LEVEL OR FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE NORTHEAST PA WILL HAVE A MORE NORMAL
DIURNAL TIMING FOR HIGHS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...MID 60S TO LOW 70S
IN NEPA TO SULLIVAN CO NY...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FARTHER NORTH
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...
A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER POCKETS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS HAVE ALREADY HAD A LITTLE PATCHY FROST...BUT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF OUR AREA MAY JOIN THEM BY DAWN FRIDAY. LARGE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO WESTERN ONTARIO
TODAY...HAS A SOURCE REGION FROM FAR NORTHERN CANADA. RADIATIONAL
COOLING DIRECTLY UNDER IT EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTED IN AN 11Z
READING OF 19 DEGREES AT LYNN LAKE IN NORTHERN MANITOBA. OF COURSE
WE WILL NOT GET THAT COLD...BUT IT IS A HINT THAT THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IS A DIFFERENT ANIMAL FROM THE ONE CURRENTLY IN OUR
REGION /OF PACIFIC ORIGIN/.

AFTER PASSAGE OF SHALLOW COLD FRONT THURSDAY...REMAINDER OF CLOUDS
WILL BREAK UP THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR LOWERING DEW POINTS AND STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THEIR
LOWEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH WIDESPREAD 30S FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD AND PROBABLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN
NORTHERN REACHES OF ONEIDA COUNTY. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED
FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW YORK ZONES
AND NORTHERN TIER OF PA...WHILE MOSTLY NOT GETTING TO
FREEZING...SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF FROST /THE FIRST
TIME THE SEASON FOR MOST OF THOSE AREAS/. MEANWHILE...FARTHER
SOUTH IN PA...IN THE WYOMING VALLEY AND PIKE COUNTY...FROST WILL
BE NOT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE.

QUIET FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTING TO THE COAST...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.
MARINE LAYER AIR UPSLOPING AGAINST AND THEN OVER THE CATSKILLS-
POCONOS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS ARE INDICATING VFR-MVFR CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY...MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY IN THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME WHERE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS LOWER LEVEL MOIST
LAYER FAIRLY WELL AND SUGGEST CIGS IN THE FL015-025 RANGE BEFORE
MIXING OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR KSYR-KRME WITH EARLIEST
ARRIVAL TIME. FURTHER SOUTH...TIME OF DAY WILL TEND TO MIX OUT
BASE OF CLOUDS. KELM...AS USUAL IS THE WILD CARD. WE SEE PLENTY OF
TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR
ALTERNATE FUEL/AIRPORT MIN RESTRICTION AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN. AS FRONT APPROACHES...IT MAY BE A LITTLE
MIXY TO PRECLUDE FOG LOCKING IN...SO FOR NOW WILL INDICATE
VARIABILITY IN THE FCST.

ALL CIGS SLOWLY LIFT AND BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SKC AT SUNSET.

LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY 0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...JAB








000
FXUS61 KBGM 180044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
844 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SKY WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY IN UPSTATE NEW YORK.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CLEARING SKY AND FROST IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
840 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE HANGING ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED...WHICH HAS BEEN A
BIT OF A TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND,
ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY AND RAISED IMMEDIATE TERM
TEMPERATURES, WHILE SLIGHTLY BOOSTING OVERNIGHT MINS.

2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CHARGE FOR NOW...BUT A COLD FRONT SEPARATES
OUR PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH FROM A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH WITH A
SOURCE REGION IN THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THAT FRONT
STRETCHES FROM UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. IT IS SAGGING OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH A BIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED.

SCT-BKN CELLULAR CUMULUS CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...LEADING TO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES
VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE SLOWER PACE OF THE FRONT...MOST
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WHICH WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES..EXCEPT
MORE TOWARDS UPPER 40S IN THE FINGER LAKES TO SYRACUSE AREAS WHERE
PRE-FRONTAL FLOW...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS...AND INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE WILL ALL HOLD BACK THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS
MUCH COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIP DOWN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR MAINLY JUST IN THE LOW
LEVELS...1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL ACTUALLY BARELY BUDGE. IT
WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY ALOFT. SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT WILL THUS
KEEP ITS IMPACT TO JUST A DECK OF CLOUDS WITH DEPTH LIMITED TO
BELOW 10 KFT AGL...AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS.
ALSO...IN THE NORTH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED...IN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LEVEL OR FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE NORTHEAST PA WILL HAVE A MORE NORMAL
DIURNAL TIMING FOR HIGHS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...MID 60S TO LOW 70S
IN NEPA TO SULLIVAN CO NY...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FARTHER NORTH
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...
A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER POCKETS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS HAVE ALREADY HAD A LITTLE PATCHY FROST...BUT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF OUR AREA MAY JOIN THEM BY DAWN FRIDAY. LARGE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO WESTERN ONTARIO
TODAY...HAS A SOURCE REGION FROM FAR NORTHERN CANADA. RADIATIONAL
COOLING DIRECTLY UNDER IT EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTED IN AN 11Z
READING OF 19 DEGREES AT LYNN LAKE IN NORTHERN MANITOBA. OF COURSE
WE WILL NOT GET THAT COLD...BUT IT IS A HINT THAT THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IS A DIFFERENT ANIMAL FROM THE ONE CURRENTLY IN OUR
REGION /OF PACIFIC ORIGIN/.

AFTER PASSAGE OF SHALLOW COLD FRONT THURSDAY...REMAINDER OF CLOUDS
WILL BREAK UP THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR LOWERING DEW POINTS AND STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THEIR
LOWEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH WIDESPREAD 30S FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD AND PROBABLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN
NORTHERN REACHES OF ONEIDA COUNTY. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED
FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW YORK ZONES
AND NORTHERN TIER OF PA...WHILE MOSTLY NOT GETTING TO
FREEZING...SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF FROST /THE FIRST
TIME THE SEASON FOR MOST OF THOSE AREAS/. MEANWHILE...FARTHER
SOUTH IN PA...IN THE WYOMING VALLEY AND PIKE COUNTY...FROST WILL
BE NOT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE.

QUIET FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTING TO THE COAST...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.
MARINE LAYER AIR UPSLOPING AGAINST AND THEN OVER THE CATSKILLS-
POCONOS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z THU UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS KELM...WHERE DENSE VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGN...PRODUCING IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER ABT 08Z.

DURG THE DAY THU...A COLD FRNT SHOULD PASS THROUGH CNY/NE PA
RATHER EARLY...GENERALLY IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH LTL OR
NO PCPN SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRNT ITSELF...A PD OF MVFR CIGS IS
EXPECTED POST-FROPA AT KSYR/KRME/KITH. AT LEAST THE LOWEST CIG
BASES SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO BREAK UP WITH SWD EXTENT...SO VFR
CIG BASES ARE PROGGED AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE AT KELM/KBGM/KAVP.

LGT SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT (AOB 5 KT)...WILL SHIFT INTO THE N AND NW
ON THU...AT 8-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH/MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBGM 180044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
844 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SKY WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY IN UPSTATE NEW YORK.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CLEARING SKY AND FROST IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
840 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE HANGING ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED...WHICH HAS BEEN A
BIT OF A TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND,
ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY AND RAISED IMMEDIATE TERM
TEMPERATURES, WHILE SLIGHTLY BOOSTING OVERNIGHT MINS.

2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CHARGE FOR NOW...BUT A COLD FRONT SEPARATES
OUR PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH FROM A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH WITH A
SOURCE REGION IN THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THAT FRONT
STRETCHES FROM UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. IT IS SAGGING OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH A BIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED.

SCT-BKN CELLULAR CUMULUS CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...LEADING TO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES
VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE SLOWER PACE OF THE FRONT...MOST
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WHICH WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES..EXCEPT
MORE TOWARDS UPPER 40S IN THE FINGER LAKES TO SYRACUSE AREAS WHERE
PRE-FRONTAL FLOW...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS...AND INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE WILL ALL HOLD BACK THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS
MUCH COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIP DOWN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR MAINLY JUST IN THE LOW
LEVELS...1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL ACTUALLY BARELY BUDGE. IT
WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY ALOFT. SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT WILL THUS
KEEP ITS IMPACT TO JUST A DECK OF CLOUDS WITH DEPTH LIMITED TO
BELOW 10 KFT AGL...AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS.
ALSO...IN THE NORTH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED...IN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LEVEL OR FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE NORTHEAST PA WILL HAVE A MORE NORMAL
DIURNAL TIMING FOR HIGHS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...MID 60S TO LOW 70S
IN NEPA TO SULLIVAN CO NY...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FARTHER NORTH
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...
A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER POCKETS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS HAVE ALREADY HAD A LITTLE PATCHY FROST...BUT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF OUR AREA MAY JOIN THEM BY DAWN FRIDAY. LARGE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO WESTERN ONTARIO
TODAY...HAS A SOURCE REGION FROM FAR NORTHERN CANADA. RADIATIONAL
COOLING DIRECTLY UNDER IT EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTED IN AN 11Z
READING OF 19 DEGREES AT LYNN LAKE IN NORTHERN MANITOBA. OF COURSE
WE WILL NOT GET THAT COLD...BUT IT IS A HINT THAT THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IS A DIFFERENT ANIMAL FROM THE ONE CURRENTLY IN OUR
REGION /OF PACIFIC ORIGIN/.

AFTER PASSAGE OF SHALLOW COLD FRONT THURSDAY...REMAINDER OF CLOUDS
WILL BREAK UP THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR LOWERING DEW POINTS AND STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THEIR
LOWEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH WIDESPREAD 30S FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD AND PROBABLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN
NORTHERN REACHES OF ONEIDA COUNTY. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED
FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW YORK ZONES
AND NORTHERN TIER OF PA...WHILE MOSTLY NOT GETTING TO
FREEZING...SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF FROST /THE FIRST
TIME THE SEASON FOR MOST OF THOSE AREAS/. MEANWHILE...FARTHER
SOUTH IN PA...IN THE WYOMING VALLEY AND PIKE COUNTY...FROST WILL
BE NOT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE.

QUIET FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTING TO THE COAST...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.
MARINE LAYER AIR UPSLOPING AGAINST AND THEN OVER THE CATSKILLS-
POCONOS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z THU UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS KELM...WHERE DENSE VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGN...PRODUCING IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER ABT 08Z.

DURG THE DAY THU...A COLD FRNT SHOULD PASS THROUGH CNY/NE PA
RATHER EARLY...GENERALLY IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH LTL OR
NO PCPN SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRNT ITSELF...A PD OF MVFR CIGS IS
EXPECTED POST-FROPA AT KSYR/KRME/KITH. AT LEAST THE LOWEST CIG
BASES SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO BREAK UP WITH SWD EXTENT...SO VFR
CIG BASES ARE PROGGED AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE AT KELM/KBGM/KAVP.

LGT SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT (AOB 5 KT)...WILL SHIFT INTO THE N AND NW
ON THU...AT 8-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH/MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 172355
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
755 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SKY WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY IN UPSTATE NEW YORK.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CLEARING SKY AND FROST IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CHARGE FOR NOW...BUT A COLD FRONT SEPARATES
OUR PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH FROM A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH WITH A
SOURCE REGION IN THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THAT FRONT
STRETCHES FROM UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. IT IS SAGGING OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH A BIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED.

SCT-BKN CELLULAR CUMULUS CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...LEADING TO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES
VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE SLOWER PACE OF THE FRONT...MOST
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WHICH WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES..EXCEPT
MORE TOWARDS UPPER 40S IN THE FINGER LAKES TO SYRACUSE AREAS WHERE
PRE-FRONTAL FLOW...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS...AND INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE WILL ALL HOLD BACK THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS
MUCH COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIP DOWN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR MAINLY JUST IN THE LOW
LEVELS...1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL ACTUALLY BARELY BUDGE. IT
WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY ALOFT. SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT WILL THUS
KEEP ITS IMPACT TO JUST A DECK OF CLOUDS WITH DEPTH LIMITED TO
BELOW 10 KFT AGL...AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS.
ALSO...IN THE NORTH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED...IN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LEVEL OR FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE NORTHEAST PA WILL HAVE A MORE NORMAL
DIURNAL TIMING FOR HIGHS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...MID 60S TO LOW 70S
IN NEPA TO SULLIVAN CO NY...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FARTHER NORTH
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...
A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER POCKETS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS HAVE ALREADY HAD A LITTLE PATCHY FROST...BUT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF OUR AREA MAY JOIN THEM BY DAWN FRIDAY. LARGE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO WESTERN ONTARIO
TODAY...HAS A SOURCE REGION FROM FAR NORTHERN CANADA. RADIATIONAL
COOLING DIRECTLY UNDER IT EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTED IN AN 11Z
READING OF 19 DEGREES AT LYNN LAKE IN NORTHERN MANITOBA. OF COURSE
WE WILL NOT GET THAT COLD...BUT IT IS A HINT THAT THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IS A DIFFERENT ANIMAL FROM THE ONE CURRENTLY IN OUR
REGION /OF PACIFIC ORIGIN/.

AFTER PASSAGE OF SHALLOW COLD FRONT THURSDAY...REMAINDER OF CLOUDS
WILL BREAK UP THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR LOWERING DEW POINTS AND STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THEIR
LOWEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH WIDESPREAD 30S FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD AND PROBABLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN
NORTHERN REACHES OF ONEIDA COUNTY. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED
FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW YORK ZONES
AND NORTHERN TIER OF PA...WHILE MOSTLY NOT GETTING TO
FREEZING...SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF FROST /THE FIRST
TIME THE SEASON FOR MOST OF THOSE AREAS/. MEANWHILE...FARTHER
SOUTH IN PA...IN THE WYOMING VALLEY AND PIKE COUNTY...FROST WILL
BE NOT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE.

QUIET FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTING TO THE COAST...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.
MARINE LAYER AIR UPSLOPING AGAINST AND THEN OVER THE CATSKILLS-
POCONOS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z THU UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS KELM...WHERE DENSE VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGN...PRODUCING IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER ABT 08Z.

DURG THE DAY THU...A COLD FRNT SHOULD PASS THROUGH CNY/NE PA
RATHER EARLY...GENERALLY IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH LTL OR
NO PCPN SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRNT ITSELF...A PD OF MVFR CIGS IS
EXPECTED POST-FROPA AT KSYR/KRME/KITH. AT LEAST THE LOWEST CIG
BASES SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO BREAK UP WITH SWD EXTENT...SO VFR
CIG BASES ARE PROGGED AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE AT KELM/KBGM/KAVP.

LGT SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT (AOB 5 KT)...WILL SHIFT INTO THE N AND NW
ON THU...AT 8-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH/MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBGM 172355
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
755 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SKY WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY IN UPSTATE NEW YORK.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CLEARING SKY AND FROST IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CHARGE FOR NOW...BUT A COLD FRONT SEPARATES
OUR PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH FROM A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH WITH A
SOURCE REGION IN THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THAT FRONT
STRETCHES FROM UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. IT IS SAGGING OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH A BIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED.

SCT-BKN CELLULAR CUMULUS CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...LEADING TO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES
VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE SLOWER PACE OF THE FRONT...MOST
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WHICH WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES..EXCEPT
MORE TOWARDS UPPER 40S IN THE FINGER LAKES TO SYRACUSE AREAS WHERE
PRE-FRONTAL FLOW...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS...AND INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE WILL ALL HOLD BACK THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS
MUCH COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIP DOWN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR MAINLY JUST IN THE LOW
LEVELS...1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL ACTUALLY BARELY BUDGE. IT
WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY ALOFT. SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT WILL THUS
KEEP ITS IMPACT TO JUST A DECK OF CLOUDS WITH DEPTH LIMITED TO
BELOW 10 KFT AGL...AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS.
ALSO...IN THE NORTH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED...IN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LEVEL OR FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE NORTHEAST PA WILL HAVE A MORE NORMAL
DIURNAL TIMING FOR HIGHS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...MID 60S TO LOW 70S
IN NEPA TO SULLIVAN CO NY...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FARTHER NORTH
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...
A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER POCKETS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS HAVE ALREADY HAD A LITTLE PATCHY FROST...BUT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF OUR AREA MAY JOIN THEM BY DAWN FRIDAY. LARGE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO WESTERN ONTARIO
TODAY...HAS A SOURCE REGION FROM FAR NORTHERN CANADA. RADIATIONAL
COOLING DIRECTLY UNDER IT EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTED IN AN 11Z
READING OF 19 DEGREES AT LYNN LAKE IN NORTHERN MANITOBA. OF COURSE
WE WILL NOT GET THAT COLD...BUT IT IS A HINT THAT THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IS A DIFFERENT ANIMAL FROM THE ONE CURRENTLY IN OUR
REGION /OF PACIFIC ORIGIN/.

AFTER PASSAGE OF SHALLOW COLD FRONT THURSDAY...REMAINDER OF CLOUDS
WILL BREAK UP THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR LOWERING DEW POINTS AND STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THEIR
LOWEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH WIDESPREAD 30S FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD AND PROBABLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN
NORTHERN REACHES OF ONEIDA COUNTY. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED
FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW YORK ZONES
AND NORTHERN TIER OF PA...WHILE MOSTLY NOT GETTING TO
FREEZING...SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF FROST /THE FIRST
TIME THE SEASON FOR MOST OF THOSE AREAS/. MEANWHILE...FARTHER
SOUTH IN PA...IN THE WYOMING VALLEY AND PIKE COUNTY...FROST WILL
BE NOT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE.

QUIET FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTING TO THE COAST...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.
MARINE LAYER AIR UPSLOPING AGAINST AND THEN OVER THE CATSKILLS-
POCONOS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z THU UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS KELM...WHERE DENSE VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGN...PRODUCING IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER ABT 08Z.

DURG THE DAY THU...A COLD FRNT SHOULD PASS THROUGH CNY/NE PA
RATHER EARLY...GENERALLY IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH LTL OR
NO PCPN SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRNT ITSELF...A PD OF MVFR CIGS IS
EXPECTED POST-FROPA AT KSYR/KRME/KITH. AT LEAST THE LOWEST CIG
BASES SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO BREAK UP WITH SWD EXTENT...SO VFR
CIG BASES ARE PROGGED AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE AT KELM/KBGM/KAVP.

LGT SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT (AOB 5 KT)...WILL SHIFT INTO THE N AND NW
ON THU...AT 8-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH/MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 171920
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SKY WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY IN UPSTATE NEW YORK.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CLEARING SKY AND FROST IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CHARGE FOR NOW...BUT A COLD FRONT SEPARATES
OUR PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH FROM A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH WITH A
SOURCE REGION IN THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THAT FRONT
STRETCHES FROM UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. IT IS SAGGING OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH A BIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED.

SCT-BKN CELLULAR CUMULUS CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...LEADING TO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES
VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE SLOWER PACE OF THE FRONT...MOST
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WHICH WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES..EXCEPT
MORE TOWARDS UPPER 40S IN THE FINGER LAKES TO SYRACUSE AREAS WHERE
PRE-FRONTAL FLOW...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE WILL ALL HOLD BACK THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS
MUCH COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIP DOWN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR MAINLY JUST IN THE LOW
LEVELS...1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL ACTUALLY BARELY BUDGE. IT
WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY ALOFT. SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT WILL THUS
KEEP ITS IMPACT TO JUST A DECK OF CLOUDS WITH DEPTH LIMITED TO
BELOW 10 KFT AGL...AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS.
ALSO...IN THE NORTH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED...IN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LEVEL OR FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE NORTHEAST PA WILL HAVE A MORE NORMAL
DIURNAL TIMING FOR HIGHS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...MID 60S TO LOW 70S
IN NEPA TO SULLIVAN CO NY...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FARTHER NORTH
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...
A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER POCKETS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS HAVE ALREADY HAD A LITTLE PATCHY FROST...BUT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF OUR AREA MAY JOIN THEM BY DAWN FRIDAY. LARGE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO WESTERN ONTARIO
TODAY...HAS A SOURCE REGION FROM FAR NORTHERN CANADA. RADIATIONAL
COOLING DIRECTLY UNDER IT EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTED IN AN 11Z
READING OF 19 DEGREES AT LYNN LAKE IN NORTHERN MANITOBA. OF COURSE
WE WILL NOT GET THAT COLD...BUT IT IS A HINT THAT THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IS A DIFFERENT ANIMAL FROM THE ONE CURRENTLY IN OUR
REGION /OF PACIFIC ORIGIN/.

AFTER PASSAGE OF SHALLOW COLD FRONT THURSDAY...REMAINDER OF CLOUDS
WILL BREAK UP THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THEIR
LOWEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH WIDESPREAD 30S FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD AND PROBABLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN
NORTHERN REACHES OF ONEIDA COUNTY. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED
FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW YORK ZONES
AND NORTHERN TIER OF PA...WHILE MOSTLY NOT GETTING TO
FREEZING...SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF FROST /THE FIRST
TIME THE SEASON FOR MOST OF THOSE AREAS/. MEANWHILE...FARTHER
SOUTH IN PA...IN THE WYOMING VALLEY AND PIKE COUNTY...FROST WILL
BE NOT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE.

QUIET FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTING TO THE COAST...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.
MARINE LAYER AIR UPSLOPING AGAINST AND THEN OVER THE CATSKILLS-
POCONOS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS TODAY. A 5K FT CU DECK HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE
CU DECK IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT KELM AND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME DENSE AND LIFT AROUND 14Z. A COLD FRONT WITH MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR LOW
END MVFR CIGS AT KITH AND KSYR. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS SITES
WILL SEE VFR CIGS WITH THE FROPA. SHOWERS ARE NOT LIKELY WITH THIS
FROPA.

OUTLOOK...

THU TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

SUN AND MON... POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH







000
FXUS61 KBGM 171920
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SKY WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY IN UPSTATE NEW YORK.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CLEARING SKY AND FROST IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CHARGE FOR NOW...BUT A COLD FRONT SEPARATES
OUR PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH FROM A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH WITH A
SOURCE REGION IN THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THAT FRONT
STRETCHES FROM UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. IT IS SAGGING OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH A BIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED.

SCT-BKN CELLULAR CUMULUS CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...LEADING TO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES
VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE SLOWER PACE OF THE FRONT...MOST
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WHICH WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES..EXCEPT
MORE TOWARDS UPPER 40S IN THE FINGER LAKES TO SYRACUSE AREAS WHERE
PRE-FRONTAL FLOW...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE WILL ALL HOLD BACK THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS
MUCH COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIP DOWN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR MAINLY JUST IN THE LOW
LEVELS...1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL ACTUALLY BARELY BUDGE. IT
WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY ALOFT. SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT WILL THUS
KEEP ITS IMPACT TO JUST A DECK OF CLOUDS WITH DEPTH LIMITED TO
BELOW 10 KFT AGL...AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS.
ALSO...IN THE NORTH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED...IN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LEVEL OR FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE NORTHEAST PA WILL HAVE A MORE NORMAL
DIURNAL TIMING FOR HIGHS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...MID 60S TO LOW 70S
IN NEPA TO SULLIVAN CO NY...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FARTHER NORTH
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...
A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER POCKETS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS HAVE ALREADY HAD A LITTLE PATCHY FROST...BUT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF OUR AREA MAY JOIN THEM BY DAWN FRIDAY. LARGE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO WESTERN ONTARIO
TODAY...HAS A SOURCE REGION FROM FAR NORTHERN CANADA. RADIATIONAL
COOLING DIRECTLY UNDER IT EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTED IN AN 11Z
READING OF 19 DEGREES AT LYNN LAKE IN NORTHERN MANITOBA. OF COURSE
WE WILL NOT GET THAT COLD...BUT IT IS A HINT THAT THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IS A DIFFERENT ANIMAL FROM THE ONE CURRENTLY IN OUR
REGION /OF PACIFIC ORIGIN/.

AFTER PASSAGE OF SHALLOW COLD FRONT THURSDAY...REMAINDER OF CLOUDS
WILL BREAK UP THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THEIR
LOWEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH WIDESPREAD 30S FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD AND PROBABLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN
NORTHERN REACHES OF ONEIDA COUNTY. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED
FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW YORK ZONES
AND NORTHERN TIER OF PA...WHILE MOSTLY NOT GETTING TO
FREEZING...SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF FROST /THE FIRST
TIME THE SEASON FOR MOST OF THOSE AREAS/. MEANWHILE...FARTHER
SOUTH IN PA...IN THE WYOMING VALLEY AND PIKE COUNTY...FROST WILL
BE NOT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE.

QUIET FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTING TO THE COAST...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.
MARINE LAYER AIR UPSLOPING AGAINST AND THEN OVER THE CATSKILLS-
POCONOS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS TODAY. A 5K FT CU DECK HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE
CU DECK IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT KELM AND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME DENSE AND LIFT AROUND 14Z. A COLD FRONT WITH MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR LOW
END MVFR CIGS AT KITH AND KSYR. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS SITES
WILL SEE VFR CIGS WITH THE FROPA. SHOWERS ARE NOT LIKELY WITH THIS
FROPA.

OUTLOOK...

THU TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

SUN AND MON... POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 171858
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
258 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SKY WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY IN UPSTATE NEW YORK.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CLEARING SKY AND FROST IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CHARGE FOR NOW...BUT A COLD FRONT SEPARATES
OUR PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH FROM A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH WITH A
SOURCE REGION IN THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THAT FRONT
STRETCHES FROM UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. IT IS SAGGING OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH A BIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED.

SCT-BKN CELLULAR CUMULUS CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...LEADING TO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES
VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE SLOWER PACE OF THE FRONT...MOST
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WHICH WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES..EXCEPT
MORE TOWARDS UPPER 40S IN THE FINGER LAKES TO SYRACUSE AREAS WHERE
PRE-FRONTAL FLOW...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE WILL ALL HOLD BACK THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS
MUCH COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIP DOWN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR MAINLY JUST IN THE LOW
LEVELS...1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL ACTUALLY BARELY BUDGE. IT
WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY ALOFT. SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT WILL THUS
KEEP ITS IMPACT TO JUST A DECK OF CLOUDS WITH DEPTH LIMITED TO
BELOW 10 KFT AGL...AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS.
ALSO...IN THE NORTH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED...IN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LEVEL OR FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE NORTHEAST PA WILL HAVE A MORE NORMAL
DIURNAL TIMING FOR HIGHS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...MID 60S TO LOW 70S
IN NEPA TO SULLIVAN CO NY...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FARTHER NORTH
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE BIGGER STORY...IF YOU WILL...IS THE ADVANCE OF A CONTINENTAL
POLAR HIGH DROPPING STRAIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND ARRIVING HERE FRIDAY WITH A FROST OR FREEZE SITUATION FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS. THIS COULD SET UP AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO THE ADVECTION OF A SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIRMASS. WE ALREADY HAVE AMPLE FROST COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA GRIDS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE TEMP FORECAST AS SOME SPOTS ARE JUST TOUCHING
FREEZING IN THE GUIDANCE. STILL SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT WITH
TIMING OF RESIDUAL STRATOCU DISSIPATION IN THE EVENING...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FROST/FREEZE
GUIDANCE ONLY IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD FROM THIS
VANTAGE PT...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND MODERATING AFTN TEMPS
(HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPR 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS TODAY. A 5K FT CU DECK HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE
CU DECK IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT KELM AND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME DENSE AND LIFT AROUND 14Z. A COLD FRONT WITH MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR LOW
END MVFR CIGS AT KITH AND KSYR. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS SITES
WILL SEE VFR CIGS WITH THE FROPA. SHOWERS ARE NOT LIKELY WITH THIS
FROPA.

OUTLOOK...

THU TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

SUN AND MON... POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 171858
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
258 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SKY WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY IN UPSTATE NEW YORK.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CLEARING SKY AND FROST IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CHARGE FOR NOW...BUT A COLD FRONT SEPARATES
OUR PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH FROM A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH WITH A
SOURCE REGION IN THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THAT FRONT
STRETCHES FROM UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. IT IS SAGGING OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH A BIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED.

SCT-BKN CELLULAR CUMULUS CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...LEADING TO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES
VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE SLOWER PACE OF THE FRONT...MOST
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WHICH WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES..EXCEPT
MORE TOWARDS UPPER 40S IN THE FINGER LAKES TO SYRACUSE AREAS WHERE
PRE-FRONTAL FLOW...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE WILL ALL HOLD BACK THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS
MUCH COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIP DOWN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR MAINLY JUST IN THE LOW
LEVELS...1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL ACTUALLY BARELY BUDGE. IT
WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY ALOFT. SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT WILL THUS
KEEP ITS IMPACT TO JUST A DECK OF CLOUDS WITH DEPTH LIMITED TO
BELOW 10 KFT AGL...AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS.
ALSO...IN THE NORTH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED...IN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LEVEL OR FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE NORTHEAST PA WILL HAVE A MORE NORMAL
DIURNAL TIMING FOR HIGHS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...MID 60S TO LOW 70S
IN NEPA TO SULLIVAN CO NY...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FARTHER NORTH
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE BIGGER STORY...IF YOU WILL...IS THE ADVANCE OF A CONTINENTAL
POLAR HIGH DROPPING STRAIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND ARRIVING HERE FRIDAY WITH A FROST OR FREEZE SITUATION FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS. THIS COULD SET UP AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO THE ADVECTION OF A SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIRMASS. WE ALREADY HAVE AMPLE FROST COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA GRIDS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE TEMP FORECAST AS SOME SPOTS ARE JUST TOUCHING
FREEZING IN THE GUIDANCE. STILL SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT WITH
TIMING OF RESIDUAL STRATOCU DISSIPATION IN THE EVENING...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FROST/FREEZE
GUIDANCE ONLY IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD FROM THIS
VANTAGE PT...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND MODERATING AFTN TEMPS
(HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPR 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS TODAY. A 5K FT CU DECK HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE
CU DECK IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT KELM AND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME DENSE AND LIFT AROUND 14Z. A COLD FRONT WITH MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR LOW
END MVFR CIGS AT KITH AND KSYR. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS SITES
WILL SEE VFR CIGS WITH THE FROPA. SHOWERS ARE NOT LIKELY WITH THIS
FROPA.

OUTLOOK...

THU TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

SUN AND MON... POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH









000
FXUS61 KBGM 171805
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
205 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SKY WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY IN UPSTATE NEW YORK.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CLEARING SKY AND FROST IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CHARGE FOR NOW...BUT A COLD FRONT SEPARATES
OUR PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH FROM A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH WITH A
SOURCE REGION IN THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THAT FRONT
STRETCHES FROM UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. IT IS SAGGING OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH A BIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED.

SCT-BKN CELLULAR CUMULUS CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...LEADING TO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES
VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE SLOWER PACE OF THE FRONT...MOST
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WHICH WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES..EXCEPT
MORE TOWARDS UPPER 40S IN THE FINGER LAKES TO SYRACUSE AREAS WHERE
PRE-FRONTAL FLOW...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE WILL ALL HOLD BACK THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS
MUCH COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIP DOWN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR MAINLY JUST IN THE LOW
LEVELS...1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL ACTUALLY BARELY BUDGE. IT
WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY ALOFT. SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT WILL THUS
KEEP ITS IMPACT TO JUST A DECK OF CLOUDS WITH DEPTH LIMITED TO
BELOW 10 KFT AGL...AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS.
ALSO...IN THE NORTH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED...IN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LEVEL OR FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE NORTHEAST PA WILL HAVE A MORE NORMAL
DIURNAL TIMING FOR HIGHS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...MID 60S TO LOW 70S
IN NEPA TO SULLIVAN CO NY...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FARTHER NORTH
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE BIGGER STORY...IF YOU WILL...IS THE ADVANCE OF A CONTINENTAL
POLAR HIGH DROPPING STRAIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND ARRIVING HERE FRIDAY WITH A FROST OR FREEZE SITUATION FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS. THIS COULD SET UP AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO THE ADVECTION OF A SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIRMASS. WE ALREADY HAVE AMPLE FROST COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA GRIDS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE TEMP FORECAST AS SOME SPOTS ARE JUST TOUCHING
FREEZING IN THE GUIDANCE. STILL SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT WITH
TIMING OF RESIDUAL STRATOCU DISSIPATION IN THE EVENING...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FROST/FREEZE
GUIDANCE ONLY IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD FROM THIS
VANTAGE PT...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND MODERATING AFTN TEMPS
(HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPR 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA THROUGH SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO OFFER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTION POTENTIAL AND
TIMING...LIMITING MUCH CERTAINTY IN THE SUNDAY /DAY 5/ FORECAST.
DID NUDGE UP POPS JUST A BIT HIGHER IN THE CHC CATEGORY TO ALIGN
OUR GRIDS ALONG CERTAIN WFO BORDERS. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER
LOWER ONTARIO AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW.
THE PRESENCE OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO
NY/PA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS TODAY. A 5K FT CU DECK HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE
CU DECK IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT KELM AND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME DENSE AND LIFT AROUND 14Z. A COLD FRONT WITH MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR LOW
END MVFR CIGS AT KITH AND KSYR. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS SITES
WILL SEE VFR CIGS WITH THE FROPA. SHOWERS ARE NOT LIKELY WITH THIS
FROPA.

OUTLOOK...

THU TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

SUN AND MON... POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...KAH







000
FXUS61 KBGM 171746
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COOL AND CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT MAY
BRING A SIGNIFICANT FROST TO THE REGION BEFORE SOUTH WINDS SET UP
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK. GRIDS TWEAKED TO KEEP UP WITH OBS/TRENDS...BUT
OVERALL VERY LITTLE CHANGE. THOUGH LOWS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S...A
FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS IN OTSEGO-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-
WAYNE-LACKAWANNA COUNTIES ACTUALLY MANAGED TO DIP INTO MID TO
UPPER 30S THIS MORNING...INCLUDING 36 IN MONTICELLO...BUT DIURNAL
HEATING IS NOW UNDERWAY. THIS CHILLY MORNING IS A RESULT OF HIGH
PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN NOW OVERHEAD...BUT THE COLDER DAWN
AREAWIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A
CANADIAN HIGH NOW DESCENDING OVER MANITOBA. LYNN LAKE IN NORTHWEST
MANITOBA ACTUALLY HIT 19 DEGREES THIS MORNING...AND GERALDTON
ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR /ALONG COLD FRONT/ ACTUALLY
REPORTED SNOW. SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO ON THE
CANADIAN HIGH AND EXPECTED LOCAL IMPACTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER.
TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT TO MIXED SUN
AND SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AS UPPER LEVELS STILL HOLD A BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SOME WAA AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL FEATURE
SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID- UPR 60S...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK AND FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS...ESPLY GFS/ECMWF MAY
HAVE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FROM A MID DECK. OUR PREVIOUS POP
FORECAST SEEMED REASONABLE AT GENLY LESS THAN 25 PERCENT. WE HAD
MENTION OF ISOLD SHOWERS...AND I MADE THE ESOTERIC MOVE TO SOFTEN
THAT TO SPRINKLES. LATER SHIFTS COULD REMOVE MENTION ALTOGETHER IF
DRYING TREND CONTINUES LIKE THE 00Z NAM.

THE BIGGER STORY...IF YOU WILL...IS THE ADVANCE OF A CONTINENTAL
POLAR HIGH DROPPING STRAIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND ARRIVING HERE FRIDAY WITH A FROST OR FREEZE SITUATION FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS. THIS COULD SET UP AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO THE ADVECTION OF A SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIRMASS. WE ALREADY HAVE AMPLE FROST COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA GRIDS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE TEMP FORECAST AS SOME SPOTS ARE JUST TOUCHING
FREEZING IN THE GUIDANCE. STILL SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT WITH
TIMING OF RESIDUAL STRATOCU DISSIPATION IN THE EVENING...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FROST/FREEZE
GUIDANCE ONLY IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD FROM THIS
VANTAGE PT...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND MODERATING AFTN TEMPS
(HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPR 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA THROUGH SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO OFFER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTION POTENTIAL AND
TIMING...LIMITING MUCH CERTAINTY IN THE SUNDAY /DAY 5/ FORECAST.
DID NUDGE UP POPS JUST A BIT HIGHER IN THE CHC CATEGORY TO ALIGN
OUR GRIDS ALONG CERTAIN WFO BORDERS. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER
LOWER ONTARIO AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW.
THE PRESENCE OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO
NY/PA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS TODAY. A 5K FT CU DECK HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE
CU DECK IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT KELM AND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME DENSE AND LIFT AROUND 14Z. A COLD FRONT WITH MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR LOW
END MVFR CIGS AT KITH AND KSYR. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS SITES
WILL SEE VFR CIGS WITH THE FROPA. SHOWERS ARE NOT LIKELY WITH THIS
FROPA.

OUTLOOK...

THU TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

SUN AND MON... POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB/MDP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 171746
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COOL AND CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT MAY
BRING A SIGNIFICANT FROST TO THE REGION BEFORE SOUTH WINDS SET UP
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK. GRIDS TWEAKED TO KEEP UP WITH OBS/TRENDS...BUT
OVERALL VERY LITTLE CHANGE. THOUGH LOWS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S...A
FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS IN OTSEGO-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-
WAYNE-LACKAWANNA COUNTIES ACTUALLY MANAGED TO DIP INTO MID TO
UPPER 30S THIS MORNING...INCLUDING 36 IN MONTICELLO...BUT DIURNAL
HEATING IS NOW UNDERWAY. THIS CHILLY MORNING IS A RESULT OF HIGH
PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN NOW OVERHEAD...BUT THE COLDER DAWN
AREAWIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A
CANADIAN HIGH NOW DESCENDING OVER MANITOBA. LYNN LAKE IN NORTHWEST
MANITOBA ACTUALLY HIT 19 DEGREES THIS MORNING...AND GERALDTON
ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR /ALONG COLD FRONT/ ACTUALLY
REPORTED SNOW. SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO ON THE
CANADIAN HIGH AND EXPECTED LOCAL IMPACTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER.
TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT TO MIXED SUN
AND SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AS UPPER LEVELS STILL HOLD A BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SOME WAA AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL FEATURE
SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID- UPR 60S...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK AND FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS...ESPLY GFS/ECMWF MAY
HAVE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FROM A MID DECK. OUR PREVIOUS POP
FORECAST SEEMED REASONABLE AT GENLY LESS THAN 25 PERCENT. WE HAD
MENTION OF ISOLD SHOWERS...AND I MADE THE ESOTERIC MOVE TO SOFTEN
THAT TO SPRINKLES. LATER SHIFTS COULD REMOVE MENTION ALTOGETHER IF
DRYING TREND CONTINUES LIKE THE 00Z NAM.

THE BIGGER STORY...IF YOU WILL...IS THE ADVANCE OF A CONTINENTAL
POLAR HIGH DROPPING STRAIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND ARRIVING HERE FRIDAY WITH A FROST OR FREEZE SITUATION FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS. THIS COULD SET UP AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO THE ADVECTION OF A SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIRMASS. WE ALREADY HAVE AMPLE FROST COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA GRIDS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE TEMP FORECAST AS SOME SPOTS ARE JUST TOUCHING
FREEZING IN THE GUIDANCE. STILL SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT WITH
TIMING OF RESIDUAL STRATOCU DISSIPATION IN THE EVENING...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FROST/FREEZE
GUIDANCE ONLY IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD FROM THIS
VANTAGE PT...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND MODERATING AFTN TEMPS
(HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPR 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA THROUGH SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO OFFER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTION POTENTIAL AND
TIMING...LIMITING MUCH CERTAINTY IN THE SUNDAY /DAY 5/ FORECAST.
DID NUDGE UP POPS JUST A BIT HIGHER IN THE CHC CATEGORY TO ALIGN
OUR GRIDS ALONG CERTAIN WFO BORDERS. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER
LOWER ONTARIO AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW.
THE PRESENCE OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO
NY/PA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS TODAY. A 5K FT CU DECK HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE
CU DECK IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT KELM AND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME DENSE AND LIFT AROUND 14Z. A COLD FRONT WITH MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR LOW
END MVFR CIGS AT KITH AND KSYR. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS SITES
WILL SEE VFR CIGS WITH THE FROPA. SHOWERS ARE NOT LIKELY WITH THIS
FROPA.

OUTLOOK...

THU TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

SUN AND MON... POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB/MDP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...KAH









000
FXUS61 KBGM 171327
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
927 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COOL AND CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT MAY
BRING A SIGNIFICANT FROST TO THE REGION BEFORE SOUTH WINDS SET UP
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK. GRIDS TWEAKED TO KEEP UP WITH OBS/TRENDS...BUT
OVERALL VERY LITTLE CHANGE. THOUGH LOWS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S...A
FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS IN OTSEGO-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-
WAYNE-LACKAWANNA COUNTIES ACTUALLY MANAGED TO DIP INTO MID TO
UPPER 30S THIS MORNING...INCLUDING 36 IN MONTICELLO...BUT DIURNAL
HEATING IS NOW UNDERWAY. THIS CHILLY MORNING IS A RESULT OF HIGH
PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN NOW OVERHEAD...BUT THE COLDER DAWN
AREAWIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A
CANADIAN HIGH NOW DESCENDING OVER MANITOBA. LYNN LAKE IN NORTHWEST
MANITOBA ACTUALLY HIT 19 DEGREES THIS MORNING...AND GERALDTON
ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR /ALONG COLD FRONT/ ACTUALLY
REPORTED SNOW. SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO ON THE
CANADIAN HIGH AND EXPECTED LOCAL IMPACTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER.
TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT TO MIXED SUN
AND SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AS UPPER LEVELS STILL HOLD A BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SOME WAA AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL FEATURE
SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID- UPR 60S...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK AND FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS...ESPLY GFS/ECMWF MAY
HAVE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FROM A MID DECK. OUR PREVIOUS POP
FORECAST SEEMED REASONABLE AT GENLY LESS THAN 25 PERCENT. WE HAD
MENTION OF ISOLD SHOWERS...AND I MADE THE ESOTERIC MOVE TO SOFTEN
THAT TO SPRINKLES. LATER SHIFTS COULD REMOVE MENTION ALTOGETHER IF
DRYING TREND CONTINUES LIKE THE 00Z NAM.

THE BIGGER STORY...IF YOU WILL...IS THE ADVANCE OF A CONTINENTAL
POLAR HIGH DROPPING STRAIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND ARRIVING HERE FRIDAY WITH A FROST OR FREEZE SITUATION FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS. THIS COULD SET UP AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO THE ADVECTION OF A SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIRMASS. WE ALREADY HAVE AMPLE FROST COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA GRIDS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE TEMP FORECAST AS SOME SPOTS ARE JUST TOUCHING
FREEZING IN THE GUIDANCE. STILLSOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT WITH
TIMING OF RESIDUAL STRATOCU DISSIPATION IN THE EVENING...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FROST/FREEZE
GUIDANCE ONLY IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD FROM THIS
VANTAGE PT...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND MODERATING AFTN TEMPS
(HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPR 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA THROUGH SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO OFFER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTION POTENTIAL AND
TIMING...LIMITING MUCH CERTAINTY IN THE SUNDAY /DAY 5/ FORECAST.
DID NUDGE UP POPS JUST A BIT HIGHER IN THE CHC CATEGORY TO ALIGN
OUR GRIDS ALONG CERTAIN WFO BORDERS. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER
LOWER ONTARIO AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW.
THE PRESENCE OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO
NY/PA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VLY FOG AND IFR CONDS AT ELM HAVE BEEN LIMITED BY LAKE CLDS DRFTG
OFF ERIE THIS MRNG. HIPRES AND MIXING SHD END ANY LEFTOVER FOG
AND CLDS BRINGING VFR CONDS TO ALL STATIONS TODAY. TNGT...FOG SHD
RETURN TO ELM...AND PERHAPS ITH...AS CLR AND CALM CONDS CONT
OVRNGT.

OUTLOOK...

THU TO SUN...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB/MDP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 171327
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
927 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COOL AND CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT MAY
BRING A SIGNIFICANT FROST TO THE REGION BEFORE SOUTH WINDS SET UP
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK. GRIDS TWEAKED TO KEEP UP WITH OBS/TRENDS...BUT
OVERALL VERY LITTLE CHANGE. THOUGH LOWS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S...A
FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS IN OTSEGO-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-
WAYNE-LACKAWANNA COUNTIES ACTUALLY MANAGED TO DIP INTO MID TO
UPPER 30S THIS MORNING...INCLUDING 36 IN MONTICELLO...BUT DIURNAL
HEATING IS NOW UNDERWAY. THIS CHILLY MORNING IS A RESULT OF HIGH
PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN NOW OVERHEAD...BUT THE COLDER DAWN
AREAWIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A
CANADIAN HIGH NOW DESCENDING OVER MANITOBA. LYNN LAKE IN NORTHWEST
MANITOBA ACTUALLY HIT 19 DEGREES THIS MORNING...AND GERALDTON
ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR /ALONG COLD FRONT/ ACTUALLY
REPORTED SNOW. SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO ON THE
CANADIAN HIGH AND EXPECTED LOCAL IMPACTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER.
TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT TO MIXED SUN
AND SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AS UPPER LEVELS STILL HOLD A BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SOME WAA AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL FEATURE
SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID- UPR 60S...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK AND FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS...ESPLY GFS/ECMWF MAY
HAVE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FROM A MID DECK. OUR PREVIOUS POP
FORECAST SEEMED REASONABLE AT GENLY LESS THAN 25 PERCENT. WE HAD
MENTION OF ISOLD SHOWERS...AND I MADE THE ESOTERIC MOVE TO SOFTEN
THAT TO SPRINKLES. LATER SHIFTS COULD REMOVE MENTION ALTOGETHER IF
DRYING TREND CONTINUES LIKE THE 00Z NAM.

THE BIGGER STORY...IF YOU WILL...IS THE ADVANCE OF A CONTINENTAL
POLAR HIGH DROPPING STRAIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND ARRIVING HERE FRIDAY WITH A FROST OR FREEZE SITUATION FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS. THIS COULD SET UP AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO THE ADVECTION OF A SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIRMASS. WE ALREADY HAVE AMPLE FROST COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA GRIDS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE TEMP FORECAST AS SOME SPOTS ARE JUST TOUCHING
FREEZING IN THE GUIDANCE. STILLSOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT WITH
TIMING OF RESIDUAL STRATOCU DISSIPATION IN THE EVENING...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FROST/FREEZE
GUIDANCE ONLY IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD FROM THIS
VANTAGE PT...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND MODERATING AFTN TEMPS
(HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPR 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA THROUGH SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO OFFER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTION POTENTIAL AND
TIMING...LIMITING MUCH CERTAINTY IN THE SUNDAY /DAY 5/ FORECAST.
DID NUDGE UP POPS JUST A BIT HIGHER IN THE CHC CATEGORY TO ALIGN
OUR GRIDS ALONG CERTAIN WFO BORDERS. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER
LOWER ONTARIO AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW.
THE PRESENCE OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO
NY/PA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VLY FOG AND IFR CONDS AT ELM HAVE BEEN LIMITED BY LAKE CLDS DRFTG
OFF ERIE THIS MRNG. HIPRES AND MIXING SHD END ANY LEFTOVER FOG
AND CLDS BRINGING VFR CONDS TO ALL STATIONS TODAY. TNGT...FOG SHD
RETURN TO ELM...AND PERHAPS ITH...AS CLR AND CALM CONDS CONT
OVRNGT.

OUTLOOK...

THU TO SUN...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB/MDP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 171051
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
651 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COOL AND CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT MAY
BRING A SIGNIFICANT FROST TO THE REGION BEFORE SOUTH WINDS SET UP
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER.
TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT TO MIXED SUN
AND SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AS UPPER LEVELS STILL HOLD A BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SOME WAA AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL FEATURE
SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPR 60S...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK AND FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS...ESPLY GFS/ECMWF MAY
HAVE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FROM A MID DECK. OUR PREVIOUS POP
FORECAST SEEMED REASONABLE AT GENLY LESS THAN 25 PERCENT. WE HAD
MENTION OF ISOLD SHOWERS...AND I MADE THE ESOTERIC MOVE TO SOFTEN
THAT TO SPRINKLES. LATER SHIFTS COULD REMOVE MENTION ALTOGETHER IF
DRYING TREND CONTINUES LIKE THE 00Z NAM.

THE BIGGER STORY...IF YOU WILL...IS THE ADVANCE OF A CONTINENTAL
POLAR HIGH DROPPING STRAIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND ARRIVING HERE FRIDAY WITH A FROST OR FREEZE SITUATION FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS. THIS COULD SET UP AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO THE ADVECTION OF A SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIRMASS. WE ALREADY HAVE AMPLE FROST COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA GRIDS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE TEMP FORECAST AS SOME SPOTS ARE JUST TOUCHING
FREEZING IN THE GUIDANCE. STILLSOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT WITH
TIMING OF RESIDUAL STRATOCU DISSIPATION IN THE EVENING...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FROST/FREEZE
GUIDANCE ONLY IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD FROM THIS
VANTAGE PT...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND MODERATING AFTN TEMPS
(HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPR 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA THROUGH SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO OFFER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTION POTENTIAL AND
TIMING...LIMITING MUCH CERTAINTY IN THE SUNDAY /DAY 5/ FORECAST.
DID NUDGE UP POPS JUST A BIT HIGHER IN THE CHC CATEGORY TO ALIGN
OUR GRIDS ALONG CERTAIN WFO BORDERS. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER
LOWER ONTARIO AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW.
THE PRESENCE OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO
NY/PA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VLY FOG AND IFR CONDS AT ELM HAVE BEEN LIMITED BY LAKE CLDS DRFTG
OFF ERIE THIS MRNG. HIPRES AND MIXING SHD END ANY LEFTOVER FOG
AND CLDS BRINGING VFR CONDS TO ALL STATIONS TODAY. TNGT...FOG SHD
RETURN TO ELM...AND PERHAPS ITH...AS CLR AND CALM CONDS CONT
OVRNGT.

OUTLOOK...

THU TO SUN...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 171051
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
651 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COOL AND CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT MAY
BRING A SIGNIFICANT FROST TO THE REGION BEFORE SOUTH WINDS SET UP
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER.
TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT TO MIXED SUN
AND SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AS UPPER LEVELS STILL HOLD A BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SOME WAA AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL FEATURE
SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPR 60S...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK AND FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS...ESPLY GFS/ECMWF MAY
HAVE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FROM A MID DECK. OUR PREVIOUS POP
FORECAST SEEMED REASONABLE AT GENLY LESS THAN 25 PERCENT. WE HAD
MENTION OF ISOLD SHOWERS...AND I MADE THE ESOTERIC MOVE TO SOFTEN
THAT TO SPRINKLES. LATER SHIFTS COULD REMOVE MENTION ALTOGETHER IF
DRYING TREND CONTINUES LIKE THE 00Z NAM.

THE BIGGER STORY...IF YOU WILL...IS THE ADVANCE OF A CONTINENTAL
POLAR HIGH DROPPING STRAIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND ARRIVING HERE FRIDAY WITH A FROST OR FREEZE SITUATION FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS. THIS COULD SET UP AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO THE ADVECTION OF A SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIRMASS. WE ALREADY HAVE AMPLE FROST COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA GRIDS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE TEMP FORECAST AS SOME SPOTS ARE JUST TOUCHING
FREEZING IN THE GUIDANCE. STILLSOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT WITH
TIMING OF RESIDUAL STRATOCU DISSIPATION IN THE EVENING...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FROST/FREEZE
GUIDANCE ONLY IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD FROM THIS
VANTAGE PT...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND MODERATING AFTN TEMPS
(HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPR 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA THROUGH SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO OFFER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTION POTENTIAL AND
TIMING...LIMITING MUCH CERTAINTY IN THE SUNDAY /DAY 5/ FORECAST.
DID NUDGE UP POPS JUST A BIT HIGHER IN THE CHC CATEGORY TO ALIGN
OUR GRIDS ALONG CERTAIN WFO BORDERS. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER
LOWER ONTARIO AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW.
THE PRESENCE OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO
NY/PA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VLY FOG AND IFR CONDS AT ELM HAVE BEEN LIMITED BY LAKE CLDS DRFTG
OFF ERIE THIS MRNG. HIPRES AND MIXING SHD END ANY LEFTOVER FOG
AND CLDS BRINGING VFR CONDS TO ALL STATIONS TODAY. TNGT...FOG SHD
RETURN TO ELM...AND PERHAPS ITH...AS CLR AND CALM CONDS CONT
OVRNGT.

OUTLOOK...

THU TO SUN...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 170808
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
408 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COOL AND CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT MAY
BRING A SIGNIFICANT FROST TO THE REGION BEFORE SOUTH WINDS SET UP
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER.
TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT TO MIXED SUN
AND SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AS UPPER LEVELS STILL HOLD A BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SOME WAA AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL FEATURE
SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPR 60S...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK AND FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS...ESPLY GFS/ECMWF MAY
HAVE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FROM A MID DECK. OUR PREVIOUS POP
FORECAST SEEMED REASONABLE AT GENLY LESS THAN 25 PERCENT. WE HAD
MENTION OF ISOLD SHOWERS...AND I MADE THE ESOTERIC MOVE TO SOFTEN
THAT TO SPRINKLES. LATER SHIFTS COULD REMOVE MENTION ALTOGETHER IF
DRYING TREND CONTINUES LIKE THE 00Z NAM.

THE BIGGER STORY...IF YOU WILL...IS THE ADVANCE OF A CONTINENTAL
POLAR HIGH DROPPING STRAIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND ARRIVING HERE FRIDAY WITH A FROST OR FREEZE SITUATION FOR
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS. THIS COULD SET UP AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO THE ADVECTION OF A SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIRMASS. WE ALREADY HAVE AMPLE FROST COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA GRIDS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE TEMP FORECAST AS SOME SPOTS ARE JUST TOUCHING
FREEZING IN THE GUIDANCE. STILLSOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT WITH
TIMING OF RESIDUAL STRATOCU DISSIPATION IN THE EVENING...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FROST/FREEZE
GUIDANCE ONLY IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD FROM THIS
VANTAGE PT...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND MODERATING AFTN TEMPS
(HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPR 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA THROUGH SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO OFFER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTION POTENTIAL AND
TIMING...LIMITING MUCH CERTAINTY IN THE SUNDAY /DAY 5/ FORECAST.
DID NUDGE UP POPS JUST A BIT HIGHER IN THE CHC CATEGORY TO ALIGN
OUR GRIDS ALONG CERTAIN WFO BORDERS. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER
LOWER ONTARIO AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW.
THE PRESENCE OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO
NY/PA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIPRES UNDER A BROAD UPR TROF WILL KEEP THE AREA GNRLY DRY AND
VFR...XCPT FOR XTNSV EARLY MRNG FOG. XPCT VLIFR TO DVLP AT
ELM...AND PERHAPS SOME BREIF IFR AT BGM AND ITH AS THE FOG CREEPS
UP THE HILLSIDE. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL UNDER HIPRES AND LGT
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

THU TO SUN...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB/DJP
AVIATION...DGM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 170540
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
140 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...TO BRING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TAKE CONTROL...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING...ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
STRATO-CU HAS CLRD ACRS MOST OF THE AREA AS OF 23Z AND EXPECT THIS
TREND WL CONTINUE. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE M/U50S AND DROPPING
QUICKLY UNDER CLR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS. RVR VLYS LOOK AS THO
THEY WL DROP BLO THE CROSS-OVER TEMP BY ARND MIDNIGHT THUS WL
CONTINUE TO MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN VLYS. HV TWEAKED HRLY T/TD
GRIDS WITH LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO DIP CLOSE TO 40F EXCEPT IN AREAS
AFFECTED BY FOG.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

2 PM UPDATE... SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR LATE THIS AFTN ACRS
OUR LAKE PLAIN AND WRN FINGER LAKES CNTYS IN CNY. AS DRIER AIR
BUILDS SEWD THROUGH THIS EVE...AND LOW-LVL INSTAB IS LOST...SC
SHOULD DSIPT AREA-WIDE...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

DESPITE GOOD RADIATING CONDS OVERNIGHT...WE DON`T ANTICIPATE
FROST...AS THE AMS DOESN`T SUPPORT IT...WITH SFC DEW PTS IN THE
40S WELL BACK THROUGH SRN ONT ATTM. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL AND FAVORABLE TIME OF YEAR...TWIN TIER RVR VLY FOG IS
LIKELY LTR TNT INTO EARLY WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
210 PM UPDATE... OVERALL...A QUIET PATN IS FORESEEN...FEATURING A
ZONAL FLOW REGIME IN THE NRN STREAM...AND A LACK OF ANY SIG
MOISTURE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

WED IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FINE DAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND
AFTN TEMPS RECOVERING WELL INTO THE 60S...OWING TO SOME LOW-LVL
WAA BEGINNING AFTER 12-15Z.

AS A S/WV DIPS SEWD INTO THE NERN CONUS WED NGT AND THU...A
REINFORCING SFC FRNT IS PROGGED TO DRIVE THROUGH THE RGN. AS
ALLUDED TO ABV...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ONLY WIDELY SCTD -SHRA ARE EXPECTED LTR WED NGT INTO EARLY THU.
LTR THU...STG LOW-LVL CAA SHOULD ENSUE POST-FROPA...WITH SC DVLPMT
LIKELY FROM A LAKE RESPONSE AND UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW...AT LEAST AS
FAR SWD AS THE TWIN TIERS.

THU NGT`S TEMP FCST IS A BIT TRICKY...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY ANY RESIDUAL SC CLEARS OUT IN THE EVE. RIGHT NOW...WE`RE
LEANING TWDS FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING...WITH LOW-LVL WINDS WEAKENING
AND VEERING ARND TO THE NNE...AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR AVBL JUST ABV
THE BLYR. GIVEN A CHILLY AMS...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST DVLPMT...AND WE`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

FRI LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE DAY FROM THIS VANTAGE PT...WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND MODERATING AFTN TEMPS (HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPR 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER LOWER ONTARIO
AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE PRESENCE
OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO NY/PA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SFC HIPRES UNDER A BROAD UPR TROF WILL KEEP THE AREA GNRLY DRY AND
VFR...XCPT FOR XTNSV EARLY MRNG FOG. XPCT VLIFR TO DVLP AT
ELM...AND PERHAPS SOME BREIF IFR AT BGM AND ITH AS THE FOG CREEPS
UP THE HILLSIDE. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL UNDER HIPRES AND LGT
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

THU TO SUN...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/PVN
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 170540
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
140 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...TO BRING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TAKE CONTROL...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING...ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
STRATO-CU HAS CLRD ACRS MOST OF THE AREA AS OF 23Z AND EXPECT THIS
TREND WL CONTINUE. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE M/U50S AND DROPPING
QUICKLY UNDER CLR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS. RVR VLYS LOOK AS THO
THEY WL DROP BLO THE CROSS-OVER TEMP BY ARND MIDNIGHT THUS WL
CONTINUE TO MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN VLYS. HV TWEAKED HRLY T/TD
GRIDS WITH LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO DIP CLOSE TO 40F EXCEPT IN AREAS
AFFECTED BY FOG.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

2 PM UPDATE... SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR LATE THIS AFTN ACRS
OUR LAKE PLAIN AND WRN FINGER LAKES CNTYS IN CNY. AS DRIER AIR
BUILDS SEWD THROUGH THIS EVE...AND LOW-LVL INSTAB IS LOST...SC
SHOULD DSIPT AREA-WIDE...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

DESPITE GOOD RADIATING CONDS OVERNIGHT...WE DON`T ANTICIPATE
FROST...AS THE AMS DOESN`T SUPPORT IT...WITH SFC DEW PTS IN THE
40S WELL BACK THROUGH SRN ONT ATTM. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL AND FAVORABLE TIME OF YEAR...TWIN TIER RVR VLY FOG IS
LIKELY LTR TNT INTO EARLY WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
210 PM UPDATE... OVERALL...A QUIET PATN IS FORESEEN...FEATURING A
ZONAL FLOW REGIME IN THE NRN STREAM...AND A LACK OF ANY SIG
MOISTURE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

WED IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FINE DAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND
AFTN TEMPS RECOVERING WELL INTO THE 60S...OWING TO SOME LOW-LVL
WAA BEGINNING AFTER 12-15Z.

AS A S/WV DIPS SEWD INTO THE NERN CONUS WED NGT AND THU...A
REINFORCING SFC FRNT IS PROGGED TO DRIVE THROUGH THE RGN. AS
ALLUDED TO ABV...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ONLY WIDELY SCTD -SHRA ARE EXPECTED LTR WED NGT INTO EARLY THU.
LTR THU...STG LOW-LVL CAA SHOULD ENSUE POST-FROPA...WITH SC DVLPMT
LIKELY FROM A LAKE RESPONSE AND UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW...AT LEAST AS
FAR SWD AS THE TWIN TIERS.

THU NGT`S TEMP FCST IS A BIT TRICKY...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY ANY RESIDUAL SC CLEARS OUT IN THE EVE. RIGHT NOW...WE`RE
LEANING TWDS FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING...WITH LOW-LVL WINDS WEAKENING
AND VEERING ARND TO THE NNE...AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR AVBL JUST ABV
THE BLYR. GIVEN A CHILLY AMS...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST DVLPMT...AND WE`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

FRI LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE DAY FROM THIS VANTAGE PT...WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND MODERATING AFTN TEMPS (HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPR 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER LOWER ONTARIO
AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE PRESENCE
OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO NY/PA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SFC HIPRES UNDER A BROAD UPR TROF WILL KEEP THE AREA GNRLY DRY AND
VFR...XCPT FOR XTNSV EARLY MRNG FOG. XPCT VLIFR TO DVLP AT
ELM...AND PERHAPS SOME BREIF IFR AT BGM AND ITH AS THE FOG CREEPS
UP THE HILLSIDE. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL UNDER HIPRES AND LGT
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

THU TO SUN...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/PVN
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 170011
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
811 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...TO BRING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TAKE CONTROL...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING...ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
STRATO-CU HAS CLRD ACRS MOST OF THE AREA AS OF 23Z AND EXPECT THIS
TREND WL CONTINUE. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE M/U50S AND DROPPING
QUICKLY UNDER CLR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS. RVR VLYS LOOK AS THO
THEY WL DROP BLO THE CROSS-OVER TEMP BY ARND MIDNIGHT THUS WL
CONTINUE TO MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN VLYS. HV TWEAKED HRLY T/TD
GRIDS WITH LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO DIP CLOSE TO 40F EXCEPT IN AREAS
AFFECTED BY FOG.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

2 PM UPDATE... SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR LATE THIS AFTN ACRS
OUR LAKE PLAIN AND WRN FINGER LAKES CNTYS IN CNY. AS DRIER AIR
BUILDS SEWD THROUGH THIS EVE...AND LOW-LVL INSTAB IS LOST...SC
SHOULD DSIPT AREA-WIDE...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

DESPITE GOOD RADIATING CONDS OVERNIGHT...WE DON`T ANTICIPATE
FROST...AS THE AMS DOESN`T SUPPORT IT...WITH SFC DEW PTS IN THE
40S WELL BACK THROUGH SRN ONT ATTM. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL AND FAVORABLE TIME OF YEAR...TWIN TIER RVR VLY FOG IS
LIKELY LTR TNT INTO EARLY WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
210 PM UPDATE... OVERALL...A QUIET PATN IS FORESEEN...FEATURING A
ZONAL FLOW REGIME IN THE NRN STREAM...AND A LACK OF ANY SIG
MOISTURE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

WED IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FINE DAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND
AFTN TEMPS RECOVERING WELL INTO THE 60S...OWING TO SOME LOW-LVL
WAA BEGINNING AFTER 12-15Z.

AS A S/WV DIPS SEWD INTO THE NERN CONUS WED NGT AND THU...A
REINFORCING SFC FRNT IS PROGGED TO DRIVE THROUGH THE RGN. AS
ALLUDED TO ABV...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ONLY WIDELY SCTD -SHRA ARE EXPECTED LTR WED NGT INTO EARLY THU.
LTR THU...STG LOW-LVL CAA SHOULD ENSUE POST-FROPA...WITH SC DVLPMT
LIKELY FROM A LAKE RESPONSE AND UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW...AT LEAST AS
FAR SWD AS THE TWIN TIERS.

THU NGT`S TEMP FCST IS A BIT TRICKY...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY ANY RESIDUAL SC CLEARS OUT IN THE EVE. RIGHT NOW...WE`RE
LEANING TWDS FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING...WITH LOW-LVL WINDS WEAKENING
AND VEERING ARND TO THE NNE...AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR AVBL JUST ABV
THE BLYR. GIVEN A CHILLY AMS...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST DVLPMT...AND WE`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

FRI LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE DAY FROM THIS VANTAGE PT...WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND MODERATING AFTN TEMPS (HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPR 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER LOWER ONTARIO
AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE PRESENCE
OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO NY/PA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CU HAS DISSIPATED AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING. A FEW PATCHES OF SC MAY REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO OVERNIGHT BUT AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT THESE TO JUST PRODUCE
FEW OR SCT CLOUD CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. FOG WILL DEVELOP IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT ELM
POSSIBLY GETTING UP TO THE HILL TOPS AT ITH AND BGM BRIEFLY BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY 9 AM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES FROM LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT
ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/PVN
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP/MSE








000
FXUS61 KBGM 170011
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
811 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...TO BRING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TAKE CONTROL...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING...ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
STRATO-CU HAS CLRD ACRS MOST OF THE AREA AS OF 23Z AND EXPECT THIS
TREND WL CONTINUE. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE M/U50S AND DROPPING
QUICKLY UNDER CLR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS. RVR VLYS LOOK AS THO
THEY WL DROP BLO THE CROSS-OVER TEMP BY ARND MIDNIGHT THUS WL
CONTINUE TO MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN VLYS. HV TWEAKED HRLY T/TD
GRIDS WITH LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO DIP CLOSE TO 40F EXCEPT IN AREAS
AFFECTED BY FOG.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

2 PM UPDATE... SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR LATE THIS AFTN ACRS
OUR LAKE PLAIN AND WRN FINGER LAKES CNTYS IN CNY. AS DRIER AIR
BUILDS SEWD THROUGH THIS EVE...AND LOW-LVL INSTAB IS LOST...SC
SHOULD DSIPT AREA-WIDE...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

DESPITE GOOD RADIATING CONDS OVERNIGHT...WE DON`T ANTICIPATE
FROST...AS THE AMS DOESN`T SUPPORT IT...WITH SFC DEW PTS IN THE
40S WELL BACK THROUGH SRN ONT ATTM. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL AND FAVORABLE TIME OF YEAR...TWIN TIER RVR VLY FOG IS
LIKELY LTR TNT INTO EARLY WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
210 PM UPDATE... OVERALL...A QUIET PATN IS FORESEEN...FEATURING A
ZONAL FLOW REGIME IN THE NRN STREAM...AND A LACK OF ANY SIG
MOISTURE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

WED IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FINE DAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND
AFTN TEMPS RECOVERING WELL INTO THE 60S...OWING TO SOME LOW-LVL
WAA BEGINNING AFTER 12-15Z.

AS A S/WV DIPS SEWD INTO THE NERN CONUS WED NGT AND THU...A
REINFORCING SFC FRNT IS PROGGED TO DRIVE THROUGH THE RGN. AS
ALLUDED TO ABV...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ONLY WIDELY SCTD -SHRA ARE EXPECTED LTR WED NGT INTO EARLY THU.
LTR THU...STG LOW-LVL CAA SHOULD ENSUE POST-FROPA...WITH SC DVLPMT
LIKELY FROM A LAKE RESPONSE AND UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW...AT LEAST AS
FAR SWD AS THE TWIN TIERS.

THU NGT`S TEMP FCST IS A BIT TRICKY...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY ANY RESIDUAL SC CLEARS OUT IN THE EVE. RIGHT NOW...WE`RE
LEANING TWDS FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING...WITH LOW-LVL WINDS WEAKENING
AND VEERING ARND TO THE NNE...AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR AVBL JUST ABV
THE BLYR. GIVEN A CHILLY AMS...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST DVLPMT...AND WE`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

FRI LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE DAY FROM THIS VANTAGE PT...WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND MODERATING AFTN TEMPS (HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPR 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER LOWER ONTARIO
AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE PRESENCE
OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO NY/PA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CU HAS DISSIPATED AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING. A FEW PATCHES OF SC MAY REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO OVERNIGHT BUT AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT THESE TO JUST PRODUCE
FEW OR SCT CLOUD CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. FOG WILL DEVELOP IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT ELM
POSSIBLY GETTING UP TO THE HILL TOPS AT ITH AND BGM BRIEFLY BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY 9 AM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES FROM LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT
ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/PVN
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP/MSE







000
FXUS61 KBGM 162325
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
725 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...TO BRING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TAKE CONTROL...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING...ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
STRATO-CU HAS CLRD ACRS MOST OF THE AREA AS OF 23Z AND EXPECT THIS
TREND WL CONTINUE. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE M/U50S AND DROPPING
QUICKLY UNDER CLR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS. RVR VLYS LOOK AS THO
THEY WL DROP BLO THE CROSS-OVER TEMP BY ARND MIDNIGHT THUS WL
CONTINUE TO MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN VLYS. HV TWEAKED HRLY T/TD
GRIDS WITH LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO DIP CLOSE TO 40F EXCEPT IN AREAS
AFFECTED BY FOG.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

2 PM UPDATE... SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR LATE THIS AFTN ACRS
OUR LAKE PLAIN AND WRN FINGER LAKES CNTYS IN CNY. AS DRIER AIR
BUILDS SEWD THROUGH THIS EVE...AND LOW-LVL INSTAB IS LOST...SC
SHOULD DSIPT AREA-WIDE...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

DESPITE GOOD RADIATING CONDS OVERNIGHT...WE DON`T ANTICIPATE
FROST...AS THE AMS DOESN`T SUPPORT IT...WITH SFC DEW PTS IN THE
40S WELL BACK THROUGH SRN ONT ATTM. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL AND FAVORABLE TIME OF YEAR...TWIN TIER RVR VLY FOG IS
LIKELY LTR TNT INTO EARLY WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
210 PM UPDATE... OVERALL...A QUIET PATN IS FORESEEN...FEATURING A
ZONAL FLOW REGIME IN THE NRN STREAM...AND A LACK OF ANY SIG
MOISTURE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

WED IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FINE DAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND
AFTN TEMPS RECOVERING WELL INTO THE 60S...OWING TO SOME LOW-LVL
WAA BEGINNING AFTER 12-15Z.

AS A S/WV DIPS SEWD INTO THE NERN CONUS WED NGT AND THU...A
REINFORCING SFC FRNT IS PROGGED TO DRIVE THROUGH THE RGN. AS
ALLUDED TO ABV...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ONLY WIDELY SCTD -SHRA ARE EXPECTED LTR WED NGT INTO EARLY THU.
LTR THU...STG LOW-LVL CAA SHOULD ENSUE POST-FROPA...WITH SC DVLPMT
LIKELY FROM A LAKE RESPONSE AND UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW...AT LEAST AS
FAR SWD AS THE TWIN TIERS.

THU NGT`S TEMP FCST IS A BIT TRICKY...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY ANY RESIDUAL SC CLEARS OUT IN THE EVE. RIGHT NOW...WE`RE
LEANING TWDS FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING...WITH LOW-LVL WINDS WEAKENING
AND VEERING ARND TO THE NNE...AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR AVBL JUST ABV
THE BLYR. GIVEN A CHILLY AMS...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST DVLPMT...AND WE`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

FRI LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE DAY FROM THIS VANTAGE PT...WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND MODERATING AFTN TEMPS (HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPR 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER LOWER ONTARIO
AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE PRESENCE
OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO NY/PA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION BUT THERE REMAINS SOME LOW
STRATOCU TO BURN OFF. A BROKEN 2500 TO 5000 FT DECK IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH RAPID CLEARING EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE AROUND SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RIVER VALLEY FOG IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR FOG WILL BE AT KELM AFTER 7Z.
LIGHTER FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KITH AND KBGM.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/PVN
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 162325
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
725 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...TO BRING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TAKE CONTROL...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING...ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
STRATO-CU HAS CLRD ACRS MOST OF THE AREA AS OF 23Z AND EXPECT THIS
TREND WL CONTINUE. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE M/U50S AND DROPPING
QUICKLY UNDER CLR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS. RVR VLYS LOOK AS THO
THEY WL DROP BLO THE CROSS-OVER TEMP BY ARND MIDNIGHT THUS WL
CONTINUE TO MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN VLYS. HV TWEAKED HRLY T/TD
GRIDS WITH LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO DIP CLOSE TO 40F EXCEPT IN AREAS
AFFECTED BY FOG.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

2 PM UPDATE... SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR LATE THIS AFTN ACRS
OUR LAKE PLAIN AND WRN FINGER LAKES CNTYS IN CNY. AS DRIER AIR
BUILDS SEWD THROUGH THIS EVE...AND LOW-LVL INSTAB IS LOST...SC
SHOULD DSIPT AREA-WIDE...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

DESPITE GOOD RADIATING CONDS OVERNIGHT...WE DON`T ANTICIPATE
FROST...AS THE AMS DOESN`T SUPPORT IT...WITH SFC DEW PTS IN THE
40S WELL BACK THROUGH SRN ONT ATTM. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL AND FAVORABLE TIME OF YEAR...TWIN TIER RVR VLY FOG IS
LIKELY LTR TNT INTO EARLY WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
210 PM UPDATE... OVERALL...A QUIET PATN IS FORESEEN...FEATURING A
ZONAL FLOW REGIME IN THE NRN STREAM...AND A LACK OF ANY SIG
MOISTURE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

WED IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FINE DAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND
AFTN TEMPS RECOVERING WELL INTO THE 60S...OWING TO SOME LOW-LVL
WAA BEGINNING AFTER 12-15Z.

AS A S/WV DIPS SEWD INTO THE NERN CONUS WED NGT AND THU...A
REINFORCING SFC FRNT IS PROGGED TO DRIVE THROUGH THE RGN. AS
ALLUDED TO ABV...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ONLY WIDELY SCTD -SHRA ARE EXPECTED LTR WED NGT INTO EARLY THU.
LTR THU...STG LOW-LVL CAA SHOULD ENSUE POST-FROPA...WITH SC DVLPMT
LIKELY FROM A LAKE RESPONSE AND UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW...AT LEAST AS
FAR SWD AS THE TWIN TIERS.

THU NGT`S TEMP FCST IS A BIT TRICKY...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY ANY RESIDUAL SC CLEARS OUT IN THE EVE. RIGHT NOW...WE`RE
LEANING TWDS FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING...WITH LOW-LVL WINDS WEAKENING
AND VEERING ARND TO THE NNE...AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR AVBL JUST ABV
THE BLYR. GIVEN A CHILLY AMS...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST DVLPMT...AND WE`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

FRI LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE DAY FROM THIS VANTAGE PT...WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND MODERATING AFTN TEMPS (HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPR 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER LOWER ONTARIO
AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE PRESENCE
OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO NY/PA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION BUT THERE REMAINS SOME LOW
STRATOCU TO BURN OFF. A BROKEN 2500 TO 5000 FT DECK IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH RAPID CLEARING EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE AROUND SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RIVER VALLEY FOG IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR FOG WILL BE AT KELM AFTER 7Z.
LIGHTER FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KITH AND KBGM.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/PVN
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 161815
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
215 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...TO BRING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TAKE CONTROL...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING...ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE... SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR LATE THIS AFTN ACRS
OUR LAKE PLAIN AND WRN FINGER LAKES CNTYS IN CNY. AS DRIER AIR
BUILDS SEWD THROUGH THIS EVE...AND LOW-LVL INSTAB IS LOST...SC
SHOULD DSIPT AREA-WIDE...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

DESPITE GOOD RADIATING CONDS OVERNIGHT...WE DON`T ANTICIPATE
FROST...AS THE AMS DOESN`T SUPPORT IT...WITH SFC DEW PTS IN THE
40S WELL BACK THROUGH SRN ONT ATTM. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL AND FAVORABLE TIME OF YEAR...TWIN TIER RVR VLY FOG IS
LIKELY LTR TNT INTO EARLY WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
210 PM UPDATE... OVERALL...A QUIET PATN IS FORESEEN...FEATURING A
ZONAL FLOW REGIME IN THE NRN STREAM...AND A LACK OF ANY SIG
MOISTURE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

WED IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FINE DAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND
AFTN TEMPS RECOVERING WELL INTO THE 60S...OWING TO SOME LOW-LVL
WAA BEGINNING AFTER 12-15Z.

AS A S/WV DIPS SEWD INTO THE NERN CONUS WED NGT AND THU...A
REINFORCING SFC FRNT IS PROGGED TO DRIVE THROUGH THE RGN. AS
ALLUDED TO ABV...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ONLY WIDELY SCTD -SHRA ARE EXPECTED LTR WED NGT INTO EARLY THU.
LTR THU...STG LOW-LVL CAA SHOULD ENSUE POST-FROPA...WITH SC DVLPMT
LIKELY FROM A LAKE RESPONSE AND UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW...AT LEAST AS
FAR SWD AS THE TWIN TIERS.

THU NGT`S TEMP FCST IS A BIT TRICKY...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY ANY RESIDUAL SC CLEARS OUT IN THE EVE. RIGHT NOW...WE`RE
LEANING TWDS FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING...WITH LOW-LVL WINDS WEAKENING
AND VEERING ARND TO THE NNE...AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR AVBL JUST ABV
THE BLYR. GIVEN A CHILLY AMS...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST DVLPMT...AND WE`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

FRI LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE DAY FROM THIS VANTAGE PT...WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND MODERATING AFTN TEMPS (HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPR 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER LOWER ONTARIO
AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE PRESENCE
OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO NY/PA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION BUT THERE REMAINS SOME LOW
STRATOCU TO BURN OFF. A BROKEN 2500 TO 5000 FT DECK IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH RAPID CLEARING EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE AROUND SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RIVER VALLEY FOG IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR FOG WILL BE AT KELM AFTER 7Z.
LIGHTER FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KITH AND KBGM.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 161815
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
215 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...TO BRING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TAKE CONTROL...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING...ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE... SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR LATE THIS AFTN ACRS
OUR LAKE PLAIN AND WRN FINGER LAKES CNTYS IN CNY. AS DRIER AIR
BUILDS SEWD THROUGH THIS EVE...AND LOW-LVL INSTAB IS LOST...SC
SHOULD DSIPT AREA-WIDE...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

DESPITE GOOD RADIATING CONDS OVERNIGHT...WE DON`T ANTICIPATE
FROST...AS THE AMS DOESN`T SUPPORT IT...WITH SFC DEW PTS IN THE
40S WELL BACK THROUGH SRN ONT ATTM. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL AND FAVORABLE TIME OF YEAR...TWIN TIER RVR VLY FOG IS
LIKELY LTR TNT INTO EARLY WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
210 PM UPDATE... OVERALL...A QUIET PATN IS FORESEEN...FEATURING A
ZONAL FLOW REGIME IN THE NRN STREAM...AND A LACK OF ANY SIG
MOISTURE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

WED IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FINE DAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND
AFTN TEMPS RECOVERING WELL INTO THE 60S...OWING TO SOME LOW-LVL
WAA BEGINNING AFTER 12-15Z.

AS A S/WV DIPS SEWD INTO THE NERN CONUS WED NGT AND THU...A
REINFORCING SFC FRNT IS PROGGED TO DRIVE THROUGH THE RGN. AS
ALLUDED TO ABV...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ONLY WIDELY SCTD -SHRA ARE EXPECTED LTR WED NGT INTO EARLY THU.
LTR THU...STG LOW-LVL CAA SHOULD ENSUE POST-FROPA...WITH SC DVLPMT
LIKELY FROM A LAKE RESPONSE AND UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW...AT LEAST AS
FAR SWD AS THE TWIN TIERS.

THU NGT`S TEMP FCST IS A BIT TRICKY...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY ANY RESIDUAL SC CLEARS OUT IN THE EVE. RIGHT NOW...WE`RE
LEANING TWDS FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING...WITH LOW-LVL WINDS WEAKENING
AND VEERING ARND TO THE NNE...AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR AVBL JUST ABV
THE BLYR. GIVEN A CHILLY AMS...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST DVLPMT...AND WE`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

FRI LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE DAY FROM THIS VANTAGE PT...WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND MODERATING AFTN TEMPS (HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPR 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER LOWER ONTARIO
AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE PRESENCE
OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO NY/PA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION BUT THERE REMAINS SOME LOW
STRATOCU TO BURN OFF. A BROKEN 2500 TO 5000 FT DECK IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH RAPID CLEARING EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE AROUND SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RIVER VALLEY FOG IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR FOG WILL BE AT KELM AFTER 7Z.
LIGHTER FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KITH AND KBGM.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 161636
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1236 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY. COLD DRY AIR COULD CAUSE FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE... JUST ISOLD SHWRS/SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER OUR NRN
ZNS LATE THIS MRNG...OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE NWLY
FLOW. AS THE COLUMN GRADUALLY DRIES OUT AND SINKING MOTION SETS
IN WITH TIME...ANY LGT PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY AFTN...WITH SKIES
ALSO BCMG PTLY SUNNY MOST AREAS.

BASED ON 12Z SNDGS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SLGT LOW-LVL CAA THIS
AFTN...OUR FCST HIGHS (RANGING IN THE 60S) LOOK REASONABLE.

PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED INTO WRN NY ATTM. LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER HALF AN INCH NOW AND WITH THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD STAY THAT
WAY. THE FAR SOUTH AND SE WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH RAIN. DRY NOW AND
BULK OF RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THERE THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN
WILL EXIT THE WRN CATSKILLS BY 8 AM...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD BE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT DAYTIME MORNING IN CENT NY AND
CATSKILLS UNTIL MIDDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT CAA FROM THE NW WILL START. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
COMBINED WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE MIDWEST. WITH THE CLOUDS MODEL GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HAS COME IN WARMER. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FROST AND THEN
ONLY IN NE ONEIDA AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED THE HIGH WEAKENS BUT IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
EVEN LARGER SFC HIGH COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPS UP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IF ANYTHING. SCHC POPS STEUBEN TO ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY LATE WED
NGT AND THU MORNING.

THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NE US FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
A COLD CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CAUSE FROST TO
FORM. THE COLDEST TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE FROM DELAWARE
TO ONEIDA COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER LOWER ONTARIO
AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE PRESENCE
OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO NY/PA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIPTATION HAS EXITED THE REGION BUT THERE REMAINS SOME LOW
STRATOCU TO BURN OFF. A BROKEN 2500 TO 5000 FT DECK IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH RAPID CLEARING EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE AROUND SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RIVER VALLEY FOG IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR FOG WILL BE AT KELM AFTER 7Z.
LIGHTER FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KITH AND KBGM.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 161636
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1236 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY. COLD DRY AIR COULD CAUSE FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE... JUST ISOLD SHWRS/SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER OUR NRN
ZNS LATE THIS MRNG...OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE NWLY
FLOW. AS THE COLUMN GRADUALLY DRIES OUT AND SINKING MOTION SETS
IN WITH TIME...ANY LGT PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY AFTN...WITH SKIES
ALSO BCMG PTLY SUNNY MOST AREAS.

BASED ON 12Z SNDGS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SLGT LOW-LVL CAA THIS
AFTN...OUR FCST HIGHS (RANGING IN THE 60S) LOOK REASONABLE.

PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED INTO WRN NY ATTM. LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER HALF AN INCH NOW AND WITH THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD STAY THAT
WAY. THE FAR SOUTH AND SE WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH RAIN. DRY NOW AND
BULK OF RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THERE THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN
WILL EXIT THE WRN CATSKILLS BY 8 AM...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD BE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT DAYTIME MORNING IN CENT NY AND
CATSKILLS UNTIL MIDDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT CAA FROM THE NW WILL START. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
COMBINED WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE MIDWEST. WITH THE CLOUDS MODEL GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HAS COME IN WARMER. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FROST AND THEN
ONLY IN NE ONEIDA AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED THE HIGH WEAKENS BUT IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
EVEN LARGER SFC HIGH COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPS UP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IF ANYTHING. SCHC POPS STEUBEN TO ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY LATE WED
NGT AND THU MORNING.

THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NE US FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
A COLD CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CAUSE FROST TO
FORM. THE COLDEST TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE FROM DELAWARE
TO ONEIDA COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER LOWER ONTARIO
AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE PRESENCE
OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO NY/PA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIPTATION HAS EXITED THE REGION BUT THERE REMAINS SOME LOW
STRATOCU TO BURN OFF. A BROKEN 2500 TO 5000 FT DECK IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH RAPID CLEARING EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE AROUND SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RIVER VALLEY FOG IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR FOG WILL BE AT KELM AFTER 7Z.
LIGHTER FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KITH AND KBGM.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 161556
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1156 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY. COLD DRY AIR COULD CAUSE FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE... JUST ISOLD SHWRS/SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER OUR NRN
ZNS LATE THIS MRNG...OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE NWLY
FLOW. AS THE COLUMN GRADUALLY DRIES OUT AND SINKING MOTION SETS
IN WITH TIME...ANY LGT PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY AFTN...WITH SKIES
ALSO BCMG PTLY SUNNY MOST AREAS.

BASED ON 12Z SNDGS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SLGT LOW-LVL CAA THIS
AFTN...OUR FCST HIGHS (RANGING IN THE 60S) LOOK REASONABLE.

PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED INTO WRN NY ATTM. LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER HALF AN INCH NOW AND WITH THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD STAY THAT
WAY. THE FAR SOUTH AND SE WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH RAIN. DRY NOW AND
BULK OF RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THERE THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN
WILL EXIT THE WRN CATSKILLS BY 8 AM...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD BE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT DAYTIME MORNING IN CENT NY AND
CATSKILLS UNTIL MIDDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT CAA FROM THE NW WILL START. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
COMBINED WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE MIDWEST. WITH THE CLOUDS MODEL GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HAS COME IN WARMER. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FROST AND THEN
ONLY IN NE ONEIDA AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED THE HIGH WEAKENS BUT IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
EVEN LARGER SFC HIGH COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPS UP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IF ANYTHING. SCHC POPS STEUBEN TO ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY LATE WED
NGT AND THU MORNING.

THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NE US FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
A COLD CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CAUSE FROST TO
FORM. THE COLDEST TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE FROM DELAWARE
TO ONEIDA COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER LOWER ONTARIO
AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE PRESENCE
OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO NY/PA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHWRS MVG OUT OF THE AREA ATTM. XPCT CONTD IMPRVMT BHD THE FNT AND
SHWRS AS DRIER AIR WRKS INTO THE REGION...WITH ALL SITES VFR BY
ARND 14Z. VFR CONDS CONT THRU THE DAY INTO THE EVE. OVRNGT...LGT
WINDS WELL UP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH CLR SKIES AND WET GND
SHD LEAD TO XTNSV FOG DVLPG WITH VLIFR AT ELM/BGM/ITH AND IFR AT
AVP THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 161556
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1156 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY. COLD DRY AIR COULD CAUSE FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE... JUST ISOLD SHWRS/SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER OUR NRN
ZNS LATE THIS MRNG...OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE NWLY
FLOW. AS THE COLUMN GRADUALLY DRIES OUT AND SINKING MOTION SETS
IN WITH TIME...ANY LGT PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY AFTN...WITH SKIES
ALSO BCMG PTLY SUNNY MOST AREAS.

BASED ON 12Z SNDGS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SLGT LOW-LVL CAA THIS
AFTN...OUR FCST HIGHS (RANGING IN THE 60S) LOOK REASONABLE.

PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED INTO WRN NY ATTM. LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER HALF AN INCH NOW AND WITH THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD STAY THAT
WAY. THE FAR SOUTH AND SE WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH RAIN. DRY NOW AND
BULK OF RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THERE THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN
WILL EXIT THE WRN CATSKILLS BY 8 AM...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD BE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT DAYTIME MORNING IN CENT NY AND
CATSKILLS UNTIL MIDDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT CAA FROM THE NW WILL START. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
COMBINED WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE MIDWEST. WITH THE CLOUDS MODEL GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HAS COME IN WARMER. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FROST AND THEN
ONLY IN NE ONEIDA AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED THE HIGH WEAKENS BUT IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
EVEN LARGER SFC HIGH COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPS UP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IF ANYTHING. SCHC POPS STEUBEN TO ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY LATE WED
NGT AND THU MORNING.

THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NE US FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
A COLD CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CAUSE FROST TO
FORM. THE COLDEST TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE FROM DELAWARE
TO ONEIDA COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER LOWER ONTARIO
AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE PRESENCE
OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO NY/PA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHWRS MVG OUT OF THE AREA ATTM. XPCT CONTD IMPRVMT BHD THE FNT AND
SHWRS AS DRIER AIR WRKS INTO THE REGION...WITH ALL SITES VFR BY
ARND 14Z. VFR CONDS CONT THRU THE DAY INTO THE EVE. OVRNGT...LGT
WINDS WELL UP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH CLR SKIES AND WET GND
SHD LEAD TO XTNSV FOG DVLPG WITH VLIFR AT ELM/BGM/ITH AND IFR AT
AVP THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 161418
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1018 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY. COLD DRY AIR COULD CAUSE FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE... JUST ISOLD SHWRS/SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER OUR NRN
ZNS LATE THIS MRNG...OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE NWLY
FLOW. AS THE COLUMN GRADUALLY DRIES OUT AND SINKING MOTION SETS
IN WITH TIME...ANY LGT PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY AFTN...WITH SKIES
ALSO BCMG PTLY SUNNY MOST AREAS.

BASED ON 12Z SNDGS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SLGT LOW-LVL CAA THIS
AFTN...OUR FCST HIGHS (RANGING IN THE 60S) LOOK REASONABLE.

PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED INTO WRN NY ATTM. LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER HALF AN INCH NOW AND WITH THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD STAY THAT
WAY. THE FAR SOUTH AND SE WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH RAIN. DRY NOW AND
BULK OF RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THERE THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN
WILL EXIT THE WRN CATSKILLS BY 8 AM...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD BE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT DAYTIME MORNING IN CENT NY AND
CATSKILLS UNTIL MIDDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT CAA FROM THE NW WILL START. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
COMBINED WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE MIDWEST. WITH THE CLOUDS MODEL GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HAS COME IN WARMER. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FROST AND THEN
ONLY IN NE ONEIDA AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED THE HIGH WEAKENS BUT IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
EVEN LARGER SFC HIGH COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPS UP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IF ANYTHING. SCHC POPS STEUBEN TO ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY LATE WED
NGT AND THU MORNING.

THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NE US FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
A COLD CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CAUSE FROST TO
FORM. THE COLDEST TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE FROM DELAWARE
TO ONEIDA COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHWRS MVG OUT OF THE AREA ATTM. XPCT CONTD IMPRVMT BHD THE FNT AND
SHWRS AS DRIER AIR WRKS INTO THE REGION...WITH ALL SITES VFR BY
ARND 14Z. VFR CONDS CONT THRU THE DAY INTO THE EVE. OVRNGT...LGT
WINDS WELL UP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH CLR SKIES AND WET GND
SHD LEAD TO XTNSV FOG DVLPG WITH VLIFR AT ELM/BGM/ITH AND IFR AT
AVP THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 161418
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1018 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY. COLD DRY AIR COULD CAUSE FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE... JUST ISOLD SHWRS/SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER OUR NRN
ZNS LATE THIS MRNG...OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE NWLY
FLOW. AS THE COLUMN GRADUALLY DRIES OUT AND SINKING MOTION SETS
IN WITH TIME...ANY LGT PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY AFTN...WITH SKIES
ALSO BCMG PTLY SUNNY MOST AREAS.

BASED ON 12Z SNDGS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SLGT LOW-LVL CAA THIS
AFTN...OUR FCST HIGHS (RANGING IN THE 60S) LOOK REASONABLE.

PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED INTO WRN NY ATTM. LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER HALF AN INCH NOW AND WITH THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD STAY THAT
WAY. THE FAR SOUTH AND SE WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH RAIN. DRY NOW AND
BULK OF RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THERE THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN
WILL EXIT THE WRN CATSKILLS BY 8 AM...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD BE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT DAYTIME MORNING IN CENT NY AND
CATSKILLS UNTIL MIDDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT CAA FROM THE NW WILL START. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
COMBINED WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE MIDWEST. WITH THE CLOUDS MODEL GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HAS COME IN WARMER. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FROST AND THEN
ONLY IN NE ONEIDA AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED THE HIGH WEAKENS BUT IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
EVEN LARGER SFC HIGH COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPS UP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IF ANYTHING. SCHC POPS STEUBEN TO ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY LATE WED
NGT AND THU MORNING.

THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NE US FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
A COLD CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CAUSE FROST TO
FORM. THE COLDEST TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE FROM DELAWARE
TO ONEIDA COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHWRS MVG OUT OF THE AREA ATTM. XPCT CONTD IMPRVMT BHD THE FNT AND
SHWRS AS DRIER AIR WRKS INTO THE REGION...WITH ALL SITES VFR BY
ARND 14Z. VFR CONDS CONT THRU THE DAY INTO THE EVE. OVRNGT...LGT
WINDS WELL UP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH CLR SKIES AND WET GND
SHD LEAD TO XTNSV FOG DVLPG WITH VLIFR AT ELM/BGM/ITH AND IFR AT
AVP THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 161030
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
630 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY. COLD DRY AIR COULD CAUSE FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED INTO WRN NY ATTM. LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER HALF AN INCH NOW AND WITH THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD STAY THAT
WAY. THE FAR SOUTH AND SE WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH RAIN. DRY NOW AND
BULK OF RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THERE THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN
WILL EXIT THE WRN CATSKILLS BY 8 AM...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD BE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT DAYTIME MORNING IN CENT NY AND
CATSKILLS UNTIL MIDDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT CAA FROM THE NW WILL START. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
COMBINED WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE MIDWEST. WITH THE CLOUDS MODEL GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HAS COME IN WARMER. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FROST AND THEN
ONLY IN NE ONEIDA AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED THE HIGH WEAKENS BUT IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
EVEN LARGER SFC HIGH COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPS UP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IF ANYTHING. SCHC POPS STEUBEN TO ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY LATE WED
NGT AND THU MORNING.

THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NE US FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
A COLD CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CAUSE FROST TO
FORM. THE COLDEST TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE FROM DELAWARE
TO ONEIDA COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SHWRS MVG OUT OF THE AREA ATTM. XPCT CONTD IMPRVMT BHD THE FNT AND
SHWRS AS DRIER AIR WRKS INTO THE REGION...WITH ALL SITES VFR BY
ARND 14Z. VFR CONDS CONT THRU THE DAY INTO THE EVE. OVRNGT...LGT
WINDS WELL UP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH CLR SKIES AND WET GND
SHD LEAD TO XTNSV FOG DVLPG WITH VLIFR AT ELM/BGM/ITH AND IFR AT
AVP THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM








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