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000
FXUS61 KBGM 132108
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
408 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD AIR AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES WILL PREVAIL OVER
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA
OR DEATH IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY POTENTIALLY
IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND MAY BRING HEAVY
SNOW AND POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND AMOUNT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
220 PM EST UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS VERY
DRY AND COLD AIR FUNNELS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WEAK LE
SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY LINGER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW. NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE EXTREME COLD.

850 MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL WITH TEMPS NOW RANGING FROM -31 NEAR
THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO -25 OVER THE WYOMING VALLEY. THIS SO FAR
IS THE COLDEST SNAP OF THE SEASON WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SFC TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA.
EXPECT 850MB TEMPS TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES THOUGH THE NIGHT WHICH
WILL ALLOW US TO SEE WIDESPREAD TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. NOT
ONLY DO WE HAVE THE EXTREME COLD... BUT WE ALSO HAVE A BREEZY NW
WIND OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE BREEZY WIND AND VERY
COLD TEMPS HAS LEAD TO DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35MPH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING. THIS COMBINATION HAS RESULTED IN WIND CHILL
VALUES REACHING AS LOW AS -35 DEGREES. WHEN TEMPS REACH THIS TYPE OF
VALUE HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE ARE POSSIBLE IF PROPER PRECAUTIONS
ARE NOT TAKEN IF ONE CHOOSES TO ADVENTURE OUT IN THIS KIND OF
WEATHER. THUS... THE WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE WHOLE CWA
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

THANKFULLY THIS ARCTIC SNAP WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 850MB TEMPS REACHING -17/-18 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO
AT LEAST REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY FOR THE MAX TEMPS. SFC
WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THUS WE LOST THE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
4 PM SATURDAY UPDATE...

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION LATE MON-TUE.

AFTER QUIET WEATHER SUN NIGHT-MOST OF MON, LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN TO
STREAK INTO AT LEAST OUR NORTHEAST PA ZONES LATE MON AFTERNOON,
OWING TO INCOMING MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION FORCING. MODEL
TIMING CONTINUES TO DIFFER IN THIS REGARD, WITH THE NAM/GEM GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS MUCH FASTER TO DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW, VERSUS THE SLOWER
EC/GFS SCENARIOS.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION MON NIGHT, FROM S TO N. CONSENSUS THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE
MODELS SUPPORT SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THE
ONSET, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPING IN AS WE HEAD TOWARDS
DAYBREAK TUE.

THE EC REMAINS THE FARTHEST INLAND/WARMEST SCENARIO WITH THE
STORM, SUGGESTING A SNOW-WINTRY MIX-RAIN SCENARIO FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MON NIGHT-TUE. HOWEVER, THIS IS
AN OUTLIER SOLUTION, AS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS OTHERWISE
SHOWS A TRACK UP THE COASTAL PLAIN, WITH MAINLY SNOW FROM THE I-81
CORRIDOR WESTWARD, AND MIXED PHASE POTENTIAL CONCENTRATED MOSTLY
OVER THE POCONO PLATEAU AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE, WE`RE LEANING TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS IDEA OF A COLDER/SNOWIER
EVENT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AT LEAST. HOWEVER, OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THE CONSISTENT AND USUALLY SKILLED EC, WE`VE RETAINED THE
POTENTIAL OF A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN MIX, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY HAZLETON-WILKES BARRE/SCRANTON-
CARBONDALE-HONESDALE-MONTICELLO.

THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW REGIME SUGGESTS THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BE A
HEAVY PRECIPITATION PRODUCER, WITH AN 850-500 MB FETCH ALL THE
WAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN FOR A TIME. THUS, STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES, AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IN SOME WAY, SHAPE, OR FORM, IS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY.

LATER TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, AS THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST, A CLIPPER TYPE LOW/SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THIS LATTER SYSTEM WILL LACK THE MOISTURE
SUPPLY/DYNAMIC SUPPORT OF ITS PREDECESSOR, IT COULD STILL PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT, WE HAVE CHANCE
PROBABILITIES TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...00Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER FOR THE STORM
EARLY IN THE PD WITH THE EURO STILL THE WARMEST...BUT NOW TRENDING
TWRD THE COLDER CANADIAN/NAM/GFS. LATTER THREE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 00Z WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING UP CST NEAR NYC AND HDG
INTO WRN NEW ENG. THIS WLD KEEP THE CHANCE FOR MIXED PCPN OVER THE
ERN ZONES...BUT PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. OUTLIER EURO WLD KEEP A CHG TO RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...XCPT PERHAPS IN THE FAR WRN CWA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLDER TREND BUT AM
NOT YET COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE IDEA. LOW CONFIDENCE FCST
CONTS...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE SURE TO BE MADE AS THE EVENT
DRAWS CLSR. PRVS DISC CONTS BLO.

330 PM THU UPDATE...
LARGE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN MOST MODELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR STORM TRACK
AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPES.

12Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS...AS WELL AS THE
WESTERNMOST WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK
STAYING INLAND AND HEADING DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO WINTRY
MIX/ICE...TO PLAIN RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A LOT OF IT. BEING
PRECEDED BY OUR ARCTIC WEEKEND WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN WOULD
DIRECTLY RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES IF THIS CAME
TO PASS. 12Z GFS IS FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK...AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN ECMWF WITH ITS INLAND TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD POSE
BOTH A HEAVY SNOW THREAT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81/ AND A
POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS. AND FINALLY...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 18Z GFS MODELS HAVE
LESS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND THUS A
WEAKER FASTER SURFACE LOW WITH FURTHER EAST TRACK /LONG ISLAND/.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE US MAINLY SNOW...HEAVIEST SOUTHEAST AND
PERHAPS LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW...THAT
IS...MOSTLY MISSING THE REGION. ALSO THE 18Z GFS...BEING WEAKER
WITH THE MON NGT-TUE LOW...GIVES ENERGY TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW THEN. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
QUIETER BUT A WARM FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS WELL AS MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

KEY POINTS AT THIS JUNCTURE ARE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM OF SOME FORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...AND THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS THE DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN TODAY/TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
SUSTAINED 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. THE BREEZY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH 00Z SUN AND MVFR
VISBYS. IFR VISBYS ARE POSSIBLY WITH LE SHOWERS AND ARE MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSYR.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION RELAXING
THE WINDS TO 12 KNOTS BY 03Z SUN... THEN BY SUNRISE DECREASING TO
AROUND 5-9 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

THURS...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM/MDP
AVIATION...KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 131938
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
238 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD AIR AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES WILL PREVAIL OVER
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA
OR DEATH IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY POTENTIALLY
IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND MAY BRING HEAVY
SNOW AND POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND AMOUNT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
220 PM EST UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS VERY
DRY AND COLD AIR FUNNELS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WEAK LE
SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY LINGER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW. NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE EXTREME COLD.

850 MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL WITH TEMPS NOW RANGING FROM -31 NEAR
THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO -25 OVER THE WYOMING VALLEY. THIS SO FAR
IS THE COLDEST SNAP OF THE SEASON WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SFC TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA.
EXPECT 850MB TEMPS TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES THOUGH THE NIGHT WHICH
WILL ALLOW US TO SEE WIDESPREAD TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. NOT
ONLY DO WE HAVE THE EXTREME COLD... BUT WE ALSO HAVE A BREEZY NW
WIND OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE BREEZY WIND AND VERY
COLD TEMPS HAS LEAD TO DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35MPH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING. THIS COMBINATION HAS RESULTED IN WIND CHILL
VALUES REACHING AS LOW AS -35 DEGREES. WHEN TEMPS REACH THIS TYPE OF
VALUE HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE ARE POSSIBLE IF PROPER PRECAUTIONS
ARE NOT TAKEN IF ONE CHOOSES TO ADVENTURE OUT IN THIS KIND OF
WEATHER. THUS... THE WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE WHOLE CWA
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

THANKFULLY THIS ARCTIC SNAP WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 850MB TEMPS REACHING -17/-18 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO
AT LEAST REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY FOR THE MAX TEMPS. SFC
WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THUS WE LOST THE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...

THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE OVER US TONIGHT, WITH 850 TEMPS
RANGING FROM -26C OVER NORTHERN PA TO -32C OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR CWA! WHILE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO PEAK WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, IT DOESN`T TAKE
MUCH OF A BREEZE WHEN YOU ARE THIS COLD TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS! SURFACE TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -15, WITH -25 UP
ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY AND THE CATSKILLS. WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. FROM ONEIDA COUNTY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS A SLIGHTLY MORE BRISK WIND AND
COLDER TEMPS WILL ALLOW ELEVATED AREAS TO APPROACH -45 FOR A WIND
CHILL!

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY, LAKE SNOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE SAME
ORIENTATION BUT CONTINUE TO SHRINK BACK TOWARD THE LAKE AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR LIMITS THE
INTENSITY OF THE SNOWS. AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO TONIGHT, WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN AN INCH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUR FLOW
BACKS TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING,
SHIFTING ANY LINGERING EFFECTS NORTH OF OUR AREA. WHILE THE WIND
WILL DIE DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE ONLY AROUND
10.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...00Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER FOR THE STORM
EARLY IN THE PD WITH THE EURO STILL THE WARMEST...BUT NOW TRENDING
TWRD THE COLDER CANADIAN/NAM/GFS. LATTER THREE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 00Z WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING UP CST NEAR NYC AND HDG
INTO WRN NEW ENG. THIS WLD KEEP THE CHANCE FOR MIXED PCPN OVER THE
ERN ZONES...BUT PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. OUTLIER EURO WLD KEEP A CHG TO RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...XCPT PERHAPS IN THE FAR WRN CWA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLDER TREND BUT AM
NOT YET COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE IDEA. LOW CONFIDENCE FCST
CONTS...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE SURE TO BE MADE AS THE EVENT
DRAWS CLSR. PRVS DISC CONTS BLO.

330 PM THU UPDATE...
LARGE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN MOST MODELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR STORM TRACK
AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPES.

12Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS...AS WELL AS THE
WESTERNMOST WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK
STAYING INLAND AND HEADING DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO WINTRY
MIX/ICE...TO PLAIN RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A LOT OF IT. BEING
PRECEDED BY OUR ARCTIC WEEKEND WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN WOULD
DIRECTLY RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES IF THIS CAME
TO PASS. 12Z GFS IS FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK...AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN ECMWF WITH ITS INLAND TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD POSE
BOTH A HEAVY SNOW THREAT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81/ AND A
POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS. AND FINALLY...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 18Z GFS MODELS HAVE
LESS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND THUS A
WEAKER FASTER SURFACE LOW WITH FURTHER EAST TRACK /LONG ISLAND/.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE US MAINLY SNOW...HEAVIEST SOUTHEAST AND
PERHAPS LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW...THAT
IS...MOSTLY MISSING THE REGION. ALSO THE 18Z GFS...BEING WEAKER
WITH THE MON NGT-TUE LOW...GIVES ENERGY TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW THEN. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
QUIETER BUT A WARM FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS WELL AS MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

KEY POINTS AT THIS JUNCTURE ARE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM OF SOME FORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...AND THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS THE DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN TODAY/TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
SUSTAINED 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. THE BREEZY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH 00Z SUN AND MVFR
VISBYS. IFR VISBYS ARE POSSIBLY WITH LE SHOWERS AND ARE MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSYR.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION RELAXING
THE WINDS TO 12 KNOTS BY 03Z SUN... THEN BY SUNRISE DECREASING TO
AROUND 5-9 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

THURS...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DGM/MDP
AVIATION...KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 131920
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
220 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TODAY, WITH THE
ENTIRE AREA WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THE WIND WON`T BE AS STRONG
SUNDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD, WITH HIGHS NEAR 10. AFTER
SOME WARMING MONDAY...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR
REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
220 PM EST UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS VERY
DRY AND COLD AIR FUNNELS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WEAK LE
SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY LINGER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW. NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE EXTREME COLD.

850 MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL WITH TEMPS NOW RANGING FROM -31 NEAR
THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO -25 OVER THE WYOMING VALLEY. THIS SO FAR
IS THE COLDEST SNAP OF THE SEASON WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SFC TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA.
EXPECT 850MB TEMPS TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES THOUGH THE NIGHT WHICH
WILL ALLOW US TO SEE WIDESPREAD TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. NOT
ONLY DO WE HAVE THE EXTREME COLD... BUT WE ALSO HAVE A BREEZY NW
WIND OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE BREEZY WIND AND VERY
COLD TEMPS HAS LEAD TO DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35MPH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING. THIS COMBINATION HAS RESULTED IN WIND CHILL
VALUES REACHING AS LOW AS -35 DEGREES. WHEN TEMPS REACH THIS TYPE OF
VALUE HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE ARE POSSIBLE IF PROPER PRECAUTIONS
ARE NOT TAKEN IF ONE CHOOSES TO ADVENTURE OUT IN THIS KIND OF
WEATHER. THUS... THE WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE WHOLE CWA
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

THANKFULLY THIS ARCTIC SNAP WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 850MB TEMPS REACHING -17/-18 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO
AT LEAST REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY FOR THE MAX TEMPS. SFC
WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THUS WE LOST THE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES.




&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...

THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE OVER US TONIGHT, WITH 850 TEMPS
RANGING FROM -26C OVER NORTHERN PA TO -32C OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR CWA! WHILE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO PEAK WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, IT DOESN`T TAKE
MUCH OF A BREEZE WHEN YOU ARE THIS COLD TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS! SURFACE TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -15, WITH -25 UP
ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY AND THE CATSKILLS. WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. FROM ONEIDA COUNTY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS A SLIGHTLY MORE BRISK WIND AND
COLDER TEMPS WILL ALLOW ELEVATED AREAS TO APPROACH -45 FOR A WIND
CHILL!

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY, LAKE SNOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE SAME
ORIENTATION BUT CONTINUE TO SHRINK BACK TOWARD THE LAKE AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR LIMITS THE
INTENSITY OF THE SNOWS. AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO TONIGHT, WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN AN INCH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUR FLOW
BACKS TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING,
SHIFTING ANY LINGERING EFFECTS NORTH OF OUR AREA. WHILE THE WIND
WILL DIE DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE ONLY AROUND
10.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...00Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER FOR THE STORM
EARLY IN THE PD WITH THE EURO STILL THE WARMEST...BUT NOW TRENDING
TWRD THE COLDER CANADIAN/NAM/GFS. LATTER THREE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 00Z WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING UP CST NEAR NYC AND HDG
INTO WRN NEW ENG. THIS WLD KEEP THE CHANCE FOR MIXED PCPN OVER THE
ERN ZONES...BUT PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. OUTLIER EURO WLD KEEP A CHG TO RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...XCPT PERHAPS IN THE FAR WRN CWA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLDER TREND BUT AM
NOT YET COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE IDEA. LOW CONFIDENCE FCST
CONTS...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE SURE TO BE MADE AS THE EVENT
DRAWS CLSR. PRVS DISC CONTS BLO.

330 PM THU UPDATE...
LARGE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN MOST MODELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR STORM TRACK
AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPES.

12Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS...AS WELL AS THE
WESTERNMOST WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK
STAYING INLAND AND HEADING DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO WINTRY
MIX/ICE...TO PLAIN RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A LOT OF IT. BEING
PRECEDED BY OUR ARCTIC WEEKEND WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN WOULD
DIRECTLY RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES IF THIS CAME
TO PASS. 12Z GFS IS FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK...AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN ECMWF WITH ITS INLAND TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD POSE
BOTH A HEAVY SNOW THREAT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81/ AND A
POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS. AND FINALLY...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 18Z GFS MODELS HAVE
LESS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND THUS A
WEAKER FASTER SURFACE LOW WITH FURTHER EAST TRACK /LONG ISLAND/.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE US MAINLY SNOW...HEAVIEST SOUTHEAST AND
PERHAPS LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW...THAT
IS...MOSTLY MISSING THE REGION. ALSO THE 18Z GFS...BEING WEAKER
WITH THE MON NGT-TUE LOW...GIVES ENERGY TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW THEN. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
QUIETER BUT A WARM FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS WELL AS MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

KEY POINTS AT THIS JUNCTURE ARE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM OF SOME FORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...AND THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS THE DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN TODAY/TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
SUSTAINED 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. THE BREEZY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH 00Z SUN AND MVFR
VISBYS. IFR VISBYS ARE POSSIBLY WITH LE SHOWERS AND ARE MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSYR.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION RELAXING
THE WINDS TO 12 KNOTS BY 03Z SUN... THEN BY SUNRISE DECREASING TO
AROUND 5-9 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

THURS...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DGM/MDP
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 131920
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
220 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TODAY, WITH THE
ENTIRE AREA WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THE WIND WON`T BE AS STRONG
SUNDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD, WITH HIGHS NEAR 10. AFTER
SOME WARMING MONDAY...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR
REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
220 PM EST UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS VERY
DRY AND COLD AIR FUNNELS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WEAK LE
SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY LINGER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW. NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE EXTREME COLD.

850 MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL WITH TEMPS NOW RANGING FROM -31 NEAR
THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO -25 OVER THE WYOMING VALLEY. THIS SO FAR
IS THE COLDEST SNAP OF THE SEASON WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SFC TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA.
EXPECT 850MB TEMPS TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES THOUGH THE NIGHT WHICH
WILL ALLOW US TO SEE WIDESPREAD TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. NOT
ONLY DO WE HAVE THE EXTREME COLD... BUT WE ALSO HAVE A BREEZY NW
WIND OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE BREEZY WIND AND VERY
COLD TEMPS HAS LEAD TO DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35MPH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING. THIS COMBINATION HAS RESULTED IN WIND CHILL
VALUES REACHING AS LOW AS -35 DEGREES. WHEN TEMPS REACH THIS TYPE OF
VALUE HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE ARE POSSIBLE IF PROPER PRECAUTIONS
ARE NOT TAKEN IF ONE CHOOSES TO ADVENTURE OUT IN THIS KIND OF
WEATHER. THUS... THE WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE WHOLE CWA
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

THANKFULLY THIS ARCTIC SNAP WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 850MB TEMPS REACHING -17/-18 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO
AT LEAST REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY FOR THE MAX TEMPS. SFC
WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THUS WE LOST THE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES.




&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...

THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE OVER US TONIGHT, WITH 850 TEMPS
RANGING FROM -26C OVER NORTHERN PA TO -32C OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR CWA! WHILE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO PEAK WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, IT DOESN`T TAKE
MUCH OF A BREEZE WHEN YOU ARE THIS COLD TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS! SURFACE TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -15, WITH -25 UP
ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY AND THE CATSKILLS. WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. FROM ONEIDA COUNTY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS A SLIGHTLY MORE BRISK WIND AND
COLDER TEMPS WILL ALLOW ELEVATED AREAS TO APPROACH -45 FOR A WIND
CHILL!

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY, LAKE SNOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE SAME
ORIENTATION BUT CONTINUE TO SHRINK BACK TOWARD THE LAKE AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR LIMITS THE
INTENSITY OF THE SNOWS. AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO TONIGHT, WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN AN INCH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUR FLOW
BACKS TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING,
SHIFTING ANY LINGERING EFFECTS NORTH OF OUR AREA. WHILE THE WIND
WILL DIE DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE ONLY AROUND
10.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...00Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER FOR THE STORM
EARLY IN THE PD WITH THE EURO STILL THE WARMEST...BUT NOW TRENDING
TWRD THE COLDER CANADIAN/NAM/GFS. LATTER THREE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 00Z WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING UP CST NEAR NYC AND HDG
INTO WRN NEW ENG. THIS WLD KEEP THE CHANCE FOR MIXED PCPN OVER THE
ERN ZONES...BUT PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. OUTLIER EURO WLD KEEP A CHG TO RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...XCPT PERHAPS IN THE FAR WRN CWA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLDER TREND BUT AM
NOT YET COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE IDEA. LOW CONFIDENCE FCST
CONTS...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE SURE TO BE MADE AS THE EVENT
DRAWS CLSR. PRVS DISC CONTS BLO.

330 PM THU UPDATE...
LARGE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN MOST MODELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR STORM TRACK
AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPES.

12Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS...AS WELL AS THE
WESTERNMOST WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK
STAYING INLAND AND HEADING DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO WINTRY
MIX/ICE...TO PLAIN RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A LOT OF IT. BEING
PRECEDED BY OUR ARCTIC WEEKEND WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN WOULD
DIRECTLY RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES IF THIS CAME
TO PASS. 12Z GFS IS FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK...AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN ECMWF WITH ITS INLAND TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD POSE
BOTH A HEAVY SNOW THREAT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81/ AND A
POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS. AND FINALLY...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 18Z GFS MODELS HAVE
LESS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND THUS A
WEAKER FASTER SURFACE LOW WITH FURTHER EAST TRACK /LONG ISLAND/.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE US MAINLY SNOW...HEAVIEST SOUTHEAST AND
PERHAPS LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW...THAT
IS...MOSTLY MISSING THE REGION. ALSO THE 18Z GFS...BEING WEAKER
WITH THE MON NGT-TUE LOW...GIVES ENERGY TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW THEN. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
QUIETER BUT A WARM FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS WELL AS MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

KEY POINTS AT THIS JUNCTURE ARE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM OF SOME FORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...AND THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS THE DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN TODAY/TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
SUSTAINED 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. THE BREEZY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH 00Z SUN AND MVFR
VISBYS. IFR VISBYS ARE POSSIBLY WITH LE SHOWERS AND ARE MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSYR.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION RELAXING
THE WINDS TO 12 KNOTS BY 03Z SUN... THEN BY SUNRISE DECREASING TO
AROUND 5-9 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

THURS...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DGM/MDP
AVIATION...KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 131920
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
220 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TODAY, WITH THE
ENTIRE AREA WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THE WIND WON`T BE AS STRONG
SUNDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD, WITH HIGHS NEAR 10. AFTER
SOME WARMING MONDAY...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR
REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
220 PM EST UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS VERY
DRY AND COLD AIR FUNNELS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WEAK LE
SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY LINGER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW. NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE EXTREME COLD.

850 MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL WITH TEMPS NOW RANGING FROM -31 NEAR
THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO -25 OVER THE WYOMING VALLEY. THIS SO FAR
IS THE COLDEST SNAP OF THE SEASON WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SFC TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA.
EXPECT 850MB TEMPS TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES THOUGH THE NIGHT WHICH
WILL ALLOW US TO SEE WIDESPREAD TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. NOT
ONLY DO WE HAVE THE EXTREME COLD... BUT WE ALSO HAVE A BREEZY NW
WIND OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE BREEZY WIND AND VERY
COLD TEMPS HAS LEAD TO DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35MPH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING. THIS COMBINATION HAS RESULTED IN WIND CHILL
VALUES REACHING AS LOW AS -35 DEGREES. WHEN TEMPS REACH THIS TYPE OF
VALUE HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE ARE POSSIBLE IF PROPER PRECAUTIONS
ARE NOT TAKEN IF ONE CHOOSES TO ADVENTURE OUT IN THIS KIND OF
WEATHER. THUS... THE WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE WHOLE CWA
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

THANKFULLY THIS ARCTIC SNAP WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 850MB TEMPS REACHING -17/-18 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO
AT LEAST REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY FOR THE MAX TEMPS. SFC
WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THUS WE LOST THE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES.




&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...

THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE OVER US TONIGHT, WITH 850 TEMPS
RANGING FROM -26C OVER NORTHERN PA TO -32C OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR CWA! WHILE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO PEAK WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, IT DOESN`T TAKE
MUCH OF A BREEZE WHEN YOU ARE THIS COLD TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS! SURFACE TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -15, WITH -25 UP
ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY AND THE CATSKILLS. WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. FROM ONEIDA COUNTY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS A SLIGHTLY MORE BRISK WIND AND
COLDER TEMPS WILL ALLOW ELEVATED AREAS TO APPROACH -45 FOR A WIND
CHILL!

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY, LAKE SNOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE SAME
ORIENTATION BUT CONTINUE TO SHRINK BACK TOWARD THE LAKE AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR LIMITS THE
INTENSITY OF THE SNOWS. AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO TONIGHT, WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN AN INCH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUR FLOW
BACKS TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING,
SHIFTING ANY LINGERING EFFECTS NORTH OF OUR AREA. WHILE THE WIND
WILL DIE DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE ONLY AROUND
10.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...00Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER FOR THE STORM
EARLY IN THE PD WITH THE EURO STILL THE WARMEST...BUT NOW TRENDING
TWRD THE COLDER CANADIAN/NAM/GFS. LATTER THREE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 00Z WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING UP CST NEAR NYC AND HDG
INTO WRN NEW ENG. THIS WLD KEEP THE CHANCE FOR MIXED PCPN OVER THE
ERN ZONES...BUT PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. OUTLIER EURO WLD KEEP A CHG TO RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...XCPT PERHAPS IN THE FAR WRN CWA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLDER TREND BUT AM
NOT YET COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE IDEA. LOW CONFIDENCE FCST
CONTS...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE SURE TO BE MADE AS THE EVENT
DRAWS CLSR. PRVS DISC CONTS BLO.

330 PM THU UPDATE...
LARGE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN MOST MODELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR STORM TRACK
AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPES.

12Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS...AS WELL AS THE
WESTERNMOST WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK
STAYING INLAND AND HEADING DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO WINTRY
MIX/ICE...TO PLAIN RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A LOT OF IT. BEING
PRECEDED BY OUR ARCTIC WEEKEND WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN WOULD
DIRECTLY RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES IF THIS CAME
TO PASS. 12Z GFS IS FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK...AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN ECMWF WITH ITS INLAND TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD POSE
BOTH A HEAVY SNOW THREAT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81/ AND A
POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS. AND FINALLY...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 18Z GFS MODELS HAVE
LESS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND THUS A
WEAKER FASTER SURFACE LOW WITH FURTHER EAST TRACK /LONG ISLAND/.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE US MAINLY SNOW...HEAVIEST SOUTHEAST AND
PERHAPS LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW...THAT
IS...MOSTLY MISSING THE REGION. ALSO THE 18Z GFS...BEING WEAKER
WITH THE MON NGT-TUE LOW...GIVES ENERGY TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW THEN. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
QUIETER BUT A WARM FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS WELL AS MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

KEY POINTS AT THIS JUNCTURE ARE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM OF SOME FORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...AND THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS THE DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN TODAY/TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
SUSTAINED 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. THE BREEZY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH 00Z SUN AND MVFR
VISBYS. IFR VISBYS ARE POSSIBLY WITH LE SHOWERS AND ARE MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSYR.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION RELAXING
THE WINDS TO 12 KNOTS BY 03Z SUN... THEN BY SUNRISE DECREASING TO
AROUND 5-9 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

THURS...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DGM/MDP
AVIATION...KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 131804
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
104 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TODAY, WITH THE
ENTIRE AREA WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THE WIND WON`T BE AS STRONG
SUNDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD, WITH HIGHS NEAR 10. AFTER
SOME WARMING MONDAY...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR
REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
915 AM EST UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND IN ITS WAKE IS VERY COLD AIR
AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VERY DRY AIR IS SLOWLY PUSHING ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA... THUS THIS SHOULD START TO WEAKEN THE LE
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE WILL REMAIN AROUND
300-310 DEGREES TODAY... THUS EXPECT MULTICELLULAR BANDS TO
CONTINUE... BUT SLOWLY WEAK WITH TIME AND LOSE THE INWARD EXTENT
SLOWLY WITH TIME.

WINDS ARE PICKING UP THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-35 MPH.
THIS WIND COMBINED WITH THE REALLY COLD AIRMASS IS CREATING
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES OVER THE REGION. EXTREME CAUTION
SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ONE CHOOSES TO GO OUTSIDE TODAY. THE WINDS
WILL NOT WEAKEN TIL AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT... THUS THE DANGER FOR
FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL DAY TODAY. TEMPS
WILL ONLY DECREASE TODAY RESULTING IN CONDITIONS GETTING WORSE AS
THE DAY PREVAILS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
415 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH TO CHANGE WITH THE WELL ADVERTISED ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN
AS WE SPEAK. THE LEADING EDGE TO THIS COLD AIR, IS NOW MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN PA. IT SHOULD CLEAR KAVP WITHIN THE HOUR. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, BUT NOT
THE SQUALLS WE SAW EARLIER TONIGHT IN SYRACUSE AND ITHACA, WHERE
BRIEF WHITEOUTS OCCURRED. TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN
NY, SINGLE DIGITS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY, AND FALLING THROUGH
THE LOWER TEENS ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER. WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM
THE FINGER LAKES, SQUALLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY
AND NORTHERN TIER OF PA, WITH MORE SNOWS UP NEAR SYRACUSE. AS THE
COLDER AIR DEEPENS AND OUT ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT, EXPECT LAKE SNOW
ACTIVITY TO CONTRACT BACK TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO ITSELF. FAVORED
AREAS ON A 300-310 FLOW WILL REMAIN DUE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO,
WHERE A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW ARE LIKELY TODAY FROM NEAR
SYRACUSE TO JUST NORTH OF BINGHAMTON. I CONTINUED TO MENTION
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW,
WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH LIKELY. WELL ADVERTISED WIND CHILL VALUES
FALL INTO THE MINUS 15 TO MINUS 35 RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON, AS
SURFACE TEMPS DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS. WHILE WE ARE
ACCUSTOMED TO COLD AIR AND SNOW IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU HAVE EXTRA
SUPPLIES TO STAY WARM IN CASE OF BREAKING DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...

THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE OVER US TONIGHT, WITH 850 TEMPS
RANGING FROM -26C OVER NORTHERN PA TO -32C OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR CWA! WHILE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO PEAK WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, IT DOESN`T TAKE
MUCH OF A BREEZE WHEN YOU ARE THIS COLD TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS! SURFACE TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -15, WITH -25 UP
ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY AND THE CATSKILLS. WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. FROM ONEIDA COUNTY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS A SLIGHTLY MORE BRISK WIND AND
COLDER TEMPS WILL ALLOW ELEVATED AREAS TO APPROACH -45 FOR A WIND
CHILL!

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY, LAKE SNOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE SAME
ORIENTATION BUT CONTINUE TO SHRINK BACK TOWARD THE LAKE AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR LIMITS THE
INTENSITY OF THE SNOWS. AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO TONIGHT, WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN AN INCH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUR FLOW
BACKS TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING,
SHIFTING ANY LINGERING EFFECTS NORTH OF OUR AREA. WHILE THE WIND
WILL DIE DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE ONLY AROUND
10.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...00Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER FOR THE STORM
EARLY IN THE PD WITH THE EURO STILL THE WARMEST...BUT NOW TRENDING
TWRD THE COLDER CANADIAN/NAM/GFS. LATTER THREE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 00Z WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING UP CST NEAR NYC AND HDG
INTO WRN NEW ENG. THIS WLD KEEP THE CHANCE FOR MIXED PCPN OVER THE
ERN ZONES...BUT PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. OUTLIER EURO WLD KEEP A CHG TO RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...XCPT PERHAPS IN THE FAR WRN CWA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLDER TREND BUT AM
NOT YET COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE IDEA. LOW CONFIDENCE FCST
CONTS...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE SURE TO BE MADE AS THE EVENT
DRAWS CLSR. PRVS DISC CONTS BLO.

330 PM THU UPDATE...
LARGE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN MOST MODELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR STORM TRACK
AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPES.

12Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS...AS WELL AS THE
WESTERNMOST WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK
STAYING INLAND AND HEADING DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO WINTRY
MIX/ICE...TO PLAIN RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A LOT OF IT. BEING
PRECEDED BY OUR ARCTIC WEEKEND WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN WOULD
DIRECTLY RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES IF THIS CAME
TO PASS. 12Z GFS IS FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK...AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN ECMWF WITH ITS INLAND TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD POSE
BOTH A HEAVY SNOW THREAT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81/ AND A
POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS. AND FINALLY...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 18Z GFS MODELS HAVE
LESS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND THUS A
WEAKER FASTER SURFACE LOW WITH FURTHER EAST TRACK /LONG ISLAND/.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE US MAINLY SNOW...HEAVIEST SOUTHEAST AND
PERHAPS LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW...THAT
IS...MOSTLY MISSING THE REGION. ALSO THE 18Z GFS...BEING WEAKER
WITH THE MON NGT-TUE LOW...GIVES ENERGY TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW THEN. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
QUIETER BUT A WARM FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS WELL AS MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

KEY POINTS AT THIS JUNCTURE ARE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM OF SOME FORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...AND THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS THE DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN TODAY/TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
SUSTAINED 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. THE BREEZY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH 00Z SUN AND MVFR
VISBYS. IFR VISBYS ARE POSSIBLY WITH LE SHOWERS AND ARE MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSYR.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION RELAXING
THE WINDS TO 12 KNOTS BY 03Z SUN... THEN BY SUNRISE DECREASING TO
AROUND 5-9 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

THURS...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/KAH
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DGM/MDP
AVIATION...KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 131416
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
916 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TODAY, WITH THE
ENTIRE AREA WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THE WIND WON`T BE AS STRONG
SUNDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD, WITH HIGHS NEAR 10. AFTER
SOME WARMING MONDAY...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR
REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
915 AM EST UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND IN ITS WAKE IS VERY COLD AIR
AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VERY DRY AIR IS SLOWLY PUSHING ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA... THUS THIS SHOULD START TO WEAKEN THE LE
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE WILL REMAIN AROUND
300-310 DEGREES TODAY... THUS EXPECT MULTICELLULAR BANDS TO
CONTINUE... BUT SLOWLY WEAK WITH TIME AND LOSE THE INWARD EXTENT
SLOWLY WITH TIME.

WINDS ARE PICKING UP THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-35 MPH.
THIS WIND COMBINED WITH THE REALLY COLD AIRMASS IS CREATING
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES OVER THE REGION. EXTREME CAUTION
SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ONE CHOOSES TO GO OUTSIDE TODAY. THE WINDS
WILL NOT WEAKEN TIL AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT... THUS THE DANGER FOR
FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL DAY TODAY. TEMPS
WILL ONLY DECREASE TODAY RESULTING IN CONDITIONS GETTING WORSE AS
THE DAY PREVAILS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
415 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH TO CHANGE WITH THE WELL ADVERTISED ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN
AS WE SPEAK. THE LEADING EDGE TO THIS COLD AIR, IS NOW MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN PA. IT SHOULD CLEAR KAVP WITHIN THE HOUR. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, BUT NOT
THE SQUALLS WE SAW EARLIER TONIGHT IN SYRACUSE AND ITHACA, WHERE
BRIEF WHITEOUTS OCCURRED. TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN
NY, SINGLE DIGITS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY, AND FALLING THROUGH
THE LOWER TEENS ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER. WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM
THE FINGER LAKES, SQUALLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY
AND NORTHERN TIER OF PA, WITH MORE SNOWS UP NEAR SYRACUSE. AS THE
COLDER AIR DEEPENS AND OUT ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT, EXPECT LAKE SNOW
ACTIVITY TO CONTRACT BACK TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO ITSELF. FAVORED
AREAS ON A 300-310 FLOW WILL REMAIN DUE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO,
WHERE A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW ARE LIKELY TODAY FROM NEAR
SYRACUSE TO JUST NORTH OF BINGHAMTON. I CONTINUED TO MENTION
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW,
WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH LIKELY. WELL ADVERTISED WIND CHILL VALUES
FALL INTO THE MINUS 15 TO MINUS 35 RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON, AS
SURFACE TEMPS DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS. WHILE WE ARE
ACCUSTOMED TO COLD AIR AND SNOW IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU HAVE EXTRA
SUPPLIES TO STAY WARM IN CASE OF BREAKING DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...

THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE OVER US TONIGHT, WITH 850 TEMPS
RANGING FROM -26C OVER NORTHERN PA TO -32C OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR CWA! WHILE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO PEAK WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, IT DOESN`T TAKE
MUCH OF A BREEZE WHEN YOU ARE THIS COLD TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS! SURFACE TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -15, WITH -25 UP
ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY AND THE CATSKILLS. WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. FROM ONEIDA COUNTY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS A SLIGHTLY MORE BRISK WIND AND
COLDER TEMPS WILL ALLOW ELEVATED AREAS TO APPROACH -45 FOR A WIND
CHILL!

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY, LAKE SNOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE SAME
ORIENTATION BUT CONTINUE TO SHRINK BACK TOWARD THE LAKE AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR LIMITS THE
INTENSITY OF THE SNOWS. AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO TONIGHT, WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN AN INCH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUR FLOW
BACKS TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING,
SHIFTING ANY LINGERING EFFECTS NORTH OF OUR AREA. WHILE THE WIND
WILL DIE DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE ONLY AROUND
10.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...00Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER FOR THE STORM
EARLY IN THE PD WITH THE EURO STILL THE WARMEST...BUT NOW TRENDING
TWRD THE COLDER CANADIAN/NAM/GFS. LATTER THREE IS REALATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 00Z WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING UP CST NEAR NYC AND HDG
INTO WRN NEW ENG. THIS WLD KEEP THE CHANCE FOR MIXED PCPN OVER THE
ERN ZONES...BUT PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. OUTLIER EURO WLD KEEP A CHG TO RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...XCPT PERHAPS IN THE FAR WRN CWA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLDER TREND BUT AM
NOT YET COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE IDEA. LOW CONFIDENCE FCST
CONTS...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE SURE TO BE MADE AS THE EVENT
DRAWS CLSR. PRVS DISC CONTS BLO.

330 PM THU UPDATE...
LARGE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN MOST MODELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR STORM TRACK
AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPES.

12Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS...AS WELL AS THE
WESTERNMOST WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK
STAYING INLAND AND HEADING DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO WINTRY
MIX/ICE...TO PLAIN RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A LOT OF IT. BEING
PRECEDED BY OUR ARCTIC WEEKEND WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN WOULD
DIRECTLY RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES IF THIS CAME
TO PASS. 12Z GFS IS FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK...AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN ECMWF WITH ITS INLAND TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD POSE
BOTH A HEAVY SNOW THREAT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81/ AND A
POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS. AND FINALLY...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 18Z GFS MODELS HAVE
LESS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND THUS A
WEAKER FASTER SURFACE LOW WITH FURTHER EAST TRACK /LONG ISLAND/.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE US MAINLY SNOW...HEAVIEST SOUTHEAST AND
PERHAPS LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW...THAT
IS...MOSTLY MISSING THE REGION. ALSO THE 18Z GFS...BEING WEAKER
WITH THE MON NGT-TUE LOW...GIVES ENERGY TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW THEN. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
QUIETER BUT A WARM FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS WELL AS MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

KEY POINTS AT THIS JUNCTURE ARE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM OF SOME FORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...AND THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS THE DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR SPILLING INTO THE AREA THIS MRNG WILL TRIGGER OCNL SNOW
SHWRS AND SQUALLS WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDS. ALSO...GUSTY NNW
WINDS WILL OCNLY BRING BLWG SNOW AND LOCAL VSBY REDUCTIONS. XPCT A
GRADUAL IMPRVMT IN CONDS LTR TODAY AND OVRNGT AS DRIER AIR MVES
INTO THE AREA...HWVR...SOME LGT LE SNOW WILL CONT ESP AT
SYR/BGM/ITH INTO THE EVENING HRS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN/MON...VFR.

MON NGT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/KAH
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DGM/MDP
AVIATION...DGM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 131140
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
640 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TODAY, WITH THE
ENTIRE AREA WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THE WIND WON`T BE AS STRONG
SUNDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD, WITH HIGHS NEAR 10. AFTER
SOME WARMING MONDAY...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR
REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
415 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH TO CHANGE WITH THE WELL ADVERTISED ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN
AS WE SPEAK. THE LEADING EDGE TO THIS COLD AIR, IS NOW MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN PA. IT SHOULD CLEAR KAVP WITHIN THE HOUR. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, BUT NOT
THE SQUALLS WE SAW EARLIER TONIGHT IN SYRACUSE AND ITHACA, WHERE
BRIEF WHITEOUTS OCCURRED. TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN
NY, SINGLE DIGITS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY, AND FALLING THROUGH
THE LOWER TEENS ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER. WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM
THE FINGER LAKES, SQUALLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY
AND NORTHERN TIER OF PA, WITH MORE SNOWS UP NEAR SYRACUSE. AS THE
COLDER AIR DEEPENS AND OUT ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT, EXPECT LAKE SNOW
ACTIVITY TO CONTRACT BACK TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO ITSELF. FAVORED
AREAS ON A 300-310 FLOW WILL REMAIN DUE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO,
WHERE A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW ARE LIKELY TODAY FROM NEAR
SYRACUSE TO JUST NORTH OF BINGHAMTON. I CONTINUED TO MENTION
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW,
WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH LIKELY. WELL ADVERTISED WIND CHILL VALUES
FALL INTO THE MINUS 15 TO MINUS 35 RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON, AS
SURFACE TEMPS DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS. WHILE WE ARE
ACCUSTOMED TO COLD AIR AND SNOW IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU HAVE EXTRA
SUPPLIES TO STAY WARM IN CASE OF BREAKING DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...

THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE OVER US TONIGHT, WITH 850 TEMPS
RANGING FROM -26C OVER NORTHERN PA TO -32C OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR CWA! WHILE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO PEAK WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, IT DOESN`T TAKE
MUCH OF A BREEZE WHEN YOU ARE THIS COLD TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS! SURFACE TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -15, WITH -25 UP
ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY AND THE CATSKILLS. WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. FROM ONEIDA COUNTY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS A SLIGHTLY MORE BRISK WIND AND
COLDER TEMPS WILL ALLOW ELEVATED AREAS TO APPROACH -45 FOR A WIND
CHILL!

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY, LAKE SNOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE SAME
ORIENTATION BUT CONTINUE TO SHRINK BACK TOWARD THE LAKE AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR LIMITS THE
INTENSITY OF THE SNOWS. AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO TONIGHT, WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN AN INCH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUR FLOW
BACKS TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING,
SHIFTING ANY LINGERING EFFECTS NORTH OF OUR AREA. WHILE THE WIND
WILL DIE DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE ONLY AROUND
10.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...00Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER FOR THE STORM
EARLY IN THE PD WITH THE EURO STILL THE WARMEST...BUT NOW TRENDING
TWRD THE COLDER CANADIAN/NAM/GFS. LATTER THREE IS REALATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 00Z WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING UP CST NEAR NYC AND HDG
INTO WRN NEW ENG. THIS WLD KEEP THE CHANCE FOR MIXED PCPN OVER THE
ERN ZONES...BUT PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. OUTLIER EURO WLD KEEP A CHG TO RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...XCPT PERHAPS IN THE FAR WRN CWA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLDER TREND BUT AM
NOT YET COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE IDEA. LOW CONFIDENCE FCST
CONTS...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE SURE TO BE MADE AS THE EVENT
DRAWS CLSR. PRVS DISC CONTS BLO.

330 PM THU UPDATE...
LARGE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN MOST MODELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR STORM TRACK
AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPES.

12Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS...AS WELL AS THE
WESTERNMOST WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK
STAYING INLAND AND HEADING DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO WINTRY
MIX/ICE...TO PLAIN RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A LOT OF IT. BEING
PRECEDED BY OUR ARCTIC WEEKEND WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN WOULD
DIRECTLY RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES IF THIS CAME
TO PASS. 12Z GFS IS FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK...AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN ECMWF WITH ITS INLAND TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD POSE
BOTH A HEAVY SNOW THREAT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81/ AND A
POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS. AND FINALLY...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 18Z GFS MODELS HAVE
LESS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND THUS A
WEAKER FASTER SURFACE LOW WITH FURTHER EAST TRACK /LONG ISLAND/.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE US MAINLY SNOW...HEAVIEST SOUTHEAST AND
PERHAPS LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW...THAT
IS...MOSTLY MISSING THE REGION. ALSO THE 18Z GFS...BEING WEAKER
WITH THE MON NGT-TUE LOW...GIVES ENERGY TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW THEN. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
QUIETER BUT A WARM FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS WELL AS MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

KEY POINTS AT THIS JUNCTURE ARE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM OF SOME FORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...AND THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS THE DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ARCTIC AIR SPILLING INTO THE AREA THIS MRNG WILL TRIGGER OCNL SNOW
SHWRS AND SQUALLS WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDS. ALSO...GUSTY NNW
WINDS WILL OCNLY BRING BLWG SNOW AND LOCAL VSBY REDUCTIONS. XPCT A
GRADUAL IMPRVMT IN CONDS LTR TODAY AND OVRNGT AS DRIER AIR MVES
INTO THE AREA...HWVR...SOME LGT LE SNOW WILL CONT ESP AT
SYR/BGM/ITH INTO THE EVENING HRS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN/MON...VFR.

MON NGT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DGM/MDP
AVIATION...DGM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 131140
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
640 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TODAY, WITH THE
ENTIRE AREA WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THE WIND WON`T BE AS STRONG
SUNDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD, WITH HIGHS NEAR 10. AFTER
SOME WARMING MONDAY...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR
REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
415 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH TO CHANGE WITH THE WELL ADVERTISED ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN
AS WE SPEAK. THE LEADING EDGE TO THIS COLD AIR, IS NOW MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN PA. IT SHOULD CLEAR KAVP WITHIN THE HOUR. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, BUT NOT
THE SQUALLS WE SAW EARLIER TONIGHT IN SYRACUSE AND ITHACA, WHERE
BRIEF WHITEOUTS OCCURRED. TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN
NY, SINGLE DIGITS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY, AND FALLING THROUGH
THE LOWER TEENS ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER. WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM
THE FINGER LAKES, SQUALLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY
AND NORTHERN TIER OF PA, WITH MORE SNOWS UP NEAR SYRACUSE. AS THE
COLDER AIR DEEPENS AND OUT ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT, EXPECT LAKE SNOW
ACTIVITY TO CONTRACT BACK TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO ITSELF. FAVORED
AREAS ON A 300-310 FLOW WILL REMAIN DUE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO,
WHERE A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW ARE LIKELY TODAY FROM NEAR
SYRACUSE TO JUST NORTH OF BINGHAMTON. I CONTINUED TO MENTION
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW,
WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH LIKELY. WELL ADVERTISED WIND CHILL VALUES
FALL INTO THE MINUS 15 TO MINUS 35 RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON, AS
SURFACE TEMPS DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS. WHILE WE ARE
ACCUSTOMED TO COLD AIR AND SNOW IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU HAVE EXTRA
SUPPLIES TO STAY WARM IN CASE OF BREAKING DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...

THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE OVER US TONIGHT, WITH 850 TEMPS
RANGING FROM -26C OVER NORTHERN PA TO -32C OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR CWA! WHILE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO PEAK WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, IT DOESN`T TAKE
MUCH OF A BREEZE WHEN YOU ARE THIS COLD TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS! SURFACE TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -15, WITH -25 UP
ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY AND THE CATSKILLS. WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. FROM ONEIDA COUNTY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS A SLIGHTLY MORE BRISK WIND AND
COLDER TEMPS WILL ALLOW ELEVATED AREAS TO APPROACH -45 FOR A WIND
CHILL!

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY, LAKE SNOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE SAME
ORIENTATION BUT CONTINUE TO SHRINK BACK TOWARD THE LAKE AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR LIMITS THE
INTENSITY OF THE SNOWS. AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO TONIGHT, WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN AN INCH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUR FLOW
BACKS TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING,
SHIFTING ANY LINGERING EFFECTS NORTH OF OUR AREA. WHILE THE WIND
WILL DIE DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE ONLY AROUND
10.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...00Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER FOR THE STORM
EARLY IN THE PD WITH THE EURO STILL THE WARMEST...BUT NOW TRENDING
TWRD THE COLDER CANADIAN/NAM/GFS. LATTER THREE IS REALATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 00Z WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING UP CST NEAR NYC AND HDG
INTO WRN NEW ENG. THIS WLD KEEP THE CHANCE FOR MIXED PCPN OVER THE
ERN ZONES...BUT PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. OUTLIER EURO WLD KEEP A CHG TO RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...XCPT PERHAPS IN THE FAR WRN CWA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLDER TREND BUT AM
NOT YET COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE IDEA. LOW CONFIDENCE FCST
CONTS...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE SURE TO BE MADE AS THE EVENT
DRAWS CLSR. PRVS DISC CONTS BLO.

330 PM THU UPDATE...
LARGE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN MOST MODELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR STORM TRACK
AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPES.

12Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS...AS WELL AS THE
WESTERNMOST WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK
STAYING INLAND AND HEADING DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO WINTRY
MIX/ICE...TO PLAIN RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A LOT OF IT. BEING
PRECEDED BY OUR ARCTIC WEEKEND WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN WOULD
DIRECTLY RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES IF THIS CAME
TO PASS. 12Z GFS IS FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK...AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN ECMWF WITH ITS INLAND TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD POSE
BOTH A HEAVY SNOW THREAT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81/ AND A
POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS. AND FINALLY...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 18Z GFS MODELS HAVE
LESS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND THUS A
WEAKER FASTER SURFACE LOW WITH FURTHER EAST TRACK /LONG ISLAND/.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE US MAINLY SNOW...HEAVIEST SOUTHEAST AND
PERHAPS LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW...THAT
IS...MOSTLY MISSING THE REGION. ALSO THE 18Z GFS...BEING WEAKER
WITH THE MON NGT-TUE LOW...GIVES ENERGY TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW THEN. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
QUIETER BUT A WARM FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS WELL AS MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

KEY POINTS AT THIS JUNCTURE ARE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM OF SOME FORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...AND THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS THE DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ARCTIC AIR SPILLING INTO THE AREA THIS MRNG WILL TRIGGER OCNL SNOW
SHWRS AND SQUALLS WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDS. ALSO...GUSTY NNW
WINDS WILL OCNLY BRING BLWG SNOW AND LOCAL VSBY REDUCTIONS. XPCT A
GRADUAL IMPRVMT IN CONDS LTR TODAY AND OVRNGT AS DRIER AIR MVES
INTO THE AREA...HWVR...SOME LGT LE SNOW WILL CONT ESP AT
SYR/BGM/ITH INTO THE EVENING HRS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN/MON...VFR.

MON NGT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DGM/MDP
AVIATION...DGM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 130933
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
433 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TODAY, WITH THE
ENTIRE AREA WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THE WIND WON`T BE AS STRONG
SUNDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD, WITH HIGHS NEAR 10. AFTER
SOME WARMING MONDAY...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR
REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
415 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH TO CHANGE WITH THE WELL ADVERTISED ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN
AS WE SPEAK. THE LEADING EDGE TO THIS COLD AIR, IS NOW MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN PA. IT SHOULD CLEAR KAVP WITHIN THE HOUR. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, BUT NOT
THE SQUALLS WE SAW EARLIER TONIGHT IN SYRACUSE AND ITHACA, WHERE
BRIEF WHITEOUTS OCCURRED. TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN
NY, SINGLE DIGITS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY, AND FALLING THROUGH
THE LOWER TEENS ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER. WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM
THE FINGER LAKES, SQUALLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY
AND NORTHERN TIER OF PA, WITH MORE SNOWS UP NEAR SYRACUSE. AS THE
COLDER AIR DEEPENS AND OUT ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT, EXPECT LAKE SNOW
ACTIVITY TO CONTRACT BACK TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO ITSELF. FAVORED
AREAS ON A 300-310 FLOW WILL REMAIN DUE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO,
WHERE A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW ARE LIKELY TODAY FROM NEAR
SYRACUSE TO JUST NORTH OF BINGHAMTON. I CONTINUED TO MENTION
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW,
WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH LIKELY. WELL ADVERTISED WIND CHILL VALUES
FALL INTO THE MINUS 15 TO MINUS 35 RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON, AS
SURFACE TEMPS DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS. WHILE WE ARE
ACCUSTOMED TO COLD AIR AND SNOW IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU HAVE EXTRA
SUPPLIES TO STAY WARM IN CASE OF BREAKING DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...

THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE OVER US TONIGHT, WITH 850 TEMPS
RANGING FROM -26C OVER NORTHERN PA TO -32C OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR CWA! WHILE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO PEAK WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, IT DOESN`T TAKE
MUCH OF A BREEZE WHEN YOU ARE THIS COLD TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS! SURFACE TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -15, WITH -25 UP
ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY AND THE CATSKILLS. WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. FROM ONEIDA COUNTY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS A SLIGHTLY MORE BRISK WIND AND
COLDER TEMPS WILL ALLOW ELEVATED AREAS TO APPROACH -45 FOR A WIND
CHILL!

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY, LAKE SNOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE SAME
ORIENTATION BUT CONTINUE TO SHRINK BACK TOWARD THE LAKE AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR LIMITS THE
INTENSITY OF THE SNOWS. AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO TONIGHT, WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN AN INCH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUR FLOW
BACKS TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING,
SHIFTING ANY LINGERING EFFECTS NORTH OF OUR AREA. WHILE THE WIND
WILL DIE DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE ONLY AROUND
10.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...00Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER FOR THE STORM
EARLY IN THE PD WITH THE EURO STILL THE WARMEST...BUT NOW TRENDING
TWRD THE COLDER CANADIAN/NAM/GFS. LATTER THREE IS REALATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 00Z WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING UP CST NEAR NYC AND HDG
INTO WRN NEW ENG. THIS WLD KEEP THE CHANCE FOR MIXED PCPN OVER THE
ERN ZONES...BUT PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. OUTLIER EURO WLD KEEP A CHG TO RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...XCPT PERHAPS IN THE FAR WRN CWA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLDER TREND BUT AM
NOT YET COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE IDEA. LOW CONFIDENCE FCST
CONTS...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE SURE TO BE MADE AS THE EVENT
DRAWS CLSR. PRVS DISC CONTS BLO.

330 PM THU UPDATE...
LARGE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN MOST MODELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR STORM TRACK
AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPES.

12Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS...AS WELL AS THE
WESTERNMOST WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK
STAYING INLAND AND HEADING DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO WINTRY
MIX/ICE...TO PLAIN RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A LOT OF IT. BEING
PRECEDED BY OUR ARCTIC WEEKEND WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN WOULD
DIRECTLY RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES IF THIS CAME
TO PASS. 12Z GFS IS FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK...AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN ECMWF WITH ITS INLAND TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD POSE
BOTH A HEAVY SNOW THREAT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81/ AND A
POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS. AND FINALLY...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 18Z GFS MODELS HAVE
LESS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND THUS A
WEAKER FASTER SURFACE LOW WITH FURTHER EAST TRACK /LONG ISLAND/.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE US MAINLY SNOW...HEAVIEST SOUTHEAST AND
PERHAPS LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW...THAT
IS...MOSTLY MISSING THE REGION. ALSO THE 18Z GFS...BEING WEAKER
WITH THE MON NGT-TUE LOW...GIVES ENERGY TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW THEN. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
QUIETER BUT A WARM FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS WELL AS MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

KEY POINTS AT THIS JUNCTURE ARE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM OF SOME FORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...AND THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS THE DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARCTIC FNT WILL GENERATE SNOW SQUALLS AND IFR CONDS OVRNGT AS IT
PASSES THRU. SW WINDS AHD OF THE FNT WILL BECOME NNW AND GUSTY
BHD. STRONG WINDS WILL CREAT BLSN AND REDUCED VSBYS EVEN WHEN THE
SQUALLS HAVE PASSED. SQUALLS WILL CONT FOR A TIME SAT BHD THE
FNT...FLWD BY DRIER AND AND VFR CONDS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN/MON...VFR.

MON NGT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DGM/MDP
AVIATION...DGM/DJP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 130706
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
206 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MAKE BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL BRING
IN BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE WELL BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER SOME WARMING MONDAY...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT OUR REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
845 PM UPDATE...
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE DOWNWIND LAKE ERIE AND
ESPECIALLY LAKE ONTARIO WITH WSW FLOW. HOWEVER...ARCTIC FRONT IS
NOW SHARPLY DIVING RIGHT INTO THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND. THIS CAN BE
SEEN ON RADAR AS A THIN BAND OF SOUTHBOUND SNOW SHOWERS CROSSING
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO FINGER LAKES-SYRACUSE-BOONVILLE 10-11PM. WE CAN THUS
EXPECT THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS A SQUALL THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF INITIALLY WITH HELP
FROM UPSTREAM LAKE ERIE MOISTURE...BUT WILL LOSE ORGANIZATION AND
INTENSITY AS CONTINUES SOUTH TO THE TWIN TIERS. THOUGH THE BAND
WILL BREAK UP DURING ITS TREK...ANYONE ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT STILL GETS ONE OF THE SCATTERED VESTIGES OF THE BAND
CAN ANTICIPATE BRIEF SQUALL-LIKE CONDITIONS AND A QUICK DUSTING OF
SNOW. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN AS DESCRIBED BELOW. WHEN MOST OF US WAKE
UP...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND ZERO FROM THE TWIN TIERS
NORTHWARD AND ON THE WAY THERE FOR POINTS SOUTH.
UNFORTUNATELY...THEY WILL ONLY GO DOWN FROM THERE THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WIND CHILLS WILL PROGRESSIVELY REACH DANGEROUS LEVELS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WELL NORTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THERE WAS A WIDE AREA OF
LIGHT ECHOES COVERING MOST OF PA INTO SOUTHERN NY AT THIS TIME
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL SHORT WAVE RIPPLING NORTHEAST ACROSS PA
AND NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THESE ECHOES WERE VIRGA
SINCE IT WAS SO DRY BELOW. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME FLURRIES MAINLY TO NORTHEAST PA AND THE CATSKILLS EARLY
THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS PROJECTED TO
REACH THE FINGER LAKES TO UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY BY 3-5Z AND FROM
COOPERSTOWN-BINGHAMTON AND TOWANDA BY 6-7Z AND ACROSS AVP-MSV BY
8-9Z. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOW SQUALL TIED
TO THIS FRONT INITIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAP INTO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
HOWEVER AS THIS SNOW SQUALL MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAKES IT IS
PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW-LEVELS BECOME LESS UNSTABLE AWAY
FROM LAKE MOISTURE. HENCE WE SEE A SNOW SQUALL REACHING ROUGHLY
FROM SYR-PEO BY ABOUT 3-5Z...UCA- ELM BY 4-6Z AND THE COOPERSTOWN
TO BGM AND TOWANDA BY 6-8Z OR SO. BY THIS TIME IT SHOULD WEAKEN
AND NOT BE SIGNIFICANT AS IT TRAVELS FARTHER S AND E. AFTER THIS
SQUALL PASSES, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL FILL
INTO DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A 300 DEGREE FLOW PATTERN. ALL
THE CLOUDS WILL BE COLDER THAN THE MAXIMUM GROWTH REGIME FOR ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE VERY DRY. THIS WILL PRECLUDE A
MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR ONONDAGA...SOUTHERN
CAYUGA...MADISON...CHENANGO AND CORTLAND COUNTIES. WE SEE MAYBE 2
TO 6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM LATER THIS EVENING TO
SATURDAY EVENING. HENCE NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NEEDED. WITH
THE WINDS WE DO ALSO HAVING BLOWING SNOW IN GRIDS THROUGH SAT.

COLD AIR PLUNGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE MINUS 20S C SATURDAY AND BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND -29C OR SO BY 6Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS
PLUMMET INTO THE DANGEROUS CATEGORY WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
SEEING CHILLS DOWN BELOW MINUS 40 SAT NGT/EARLY SUN. HENCE KEPT
WIND CHILL WARNINGS GOING ALL ZONES. THIS COLD AIR MASS COULD
RIVAL SOME OF THE COLDEST ONES LAST YEAR FOR THE UPPER MOHAWK TO
THE CATSKILLS. FARTHER WEST A 300 DEGREE L0W-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL
WARM THE SURFACE LATER SOME FROM LAKE ONTARIO. SO WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING SUCH EXTREME COLD FARTHER WEST INTO THE FINGER LAKES,
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA. IT STILL WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN THESE
AREAS AND LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 TO 15 BELOW LOCALLY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 15 BELOW TO 35 BELOW
WITH THE COLDEST VALUES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THESE AREAS.
IN FACT THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS
ARCTIC OUTBREAK SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE WELL MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND COVERS THE REGION BY SUN
PM. THIS WILL DROP THE WIND SPEEDS AND WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL MIGRATE
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THICKER
CLOUD COVER REACHES ROUGHLY FROM BUF-MSV BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MUCH OF NE PA AND
SC NY/FINGER LAKES FROM RADIATING TO BELOW ZERO SUN NGT. WE SEE
BELOW ZERO READINGS...POSSIBLY TO BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO FROM THE
UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN DELAWARE AND
OTSEGO/MADISON AND CHENANGO COUNTIES BY MONDAY AM.

FOR MONDAY WE WILL SEE A SHOT OF WAA LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS
THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN BELOW 0C. SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE
VERY DRY AND THIS FIRST WAVE DOES NOT HAVE THAT MUCH MOISTURE
REACHING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WE ONLY SEE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. MODEL QPF IS BELOW .1 INCHES MONDAY SO NOT SEEING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT BEFORE 00Z TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

200 AM UPDATE...00Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER FOR THE STORM
EARLY IN THE PD WITH THE EURO STILL THE WARMEST...BUT NOW TRENDING
TWRD THE COLDER CANADIAN/NAM/GFS. LATTER THREE IS REALATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 00Z WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING UP CST NEAR NYC AND HDG
INTO WRN NEW ENG. THIS WLD KEEP THE CHANCE FOR MIXED PCPN OVER THE
ERN ZONES...BUT PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. OUTLIER EURO WLD KEEP A CHG TO RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...XCPT PERHAPS IN THE FAR WRN CWA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLDER TREND BUT AM
NOT YET COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE IDEA. LOW CONFIDENCE FCST
CONTS...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE SURE TO BE MADE AS THE EVENT
DRAWS CLSR. PRVS DISC CONTS BLO.

330 PM THU UPDATE...
LARGE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN MOST MODELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR STORM TRACK
AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPES.

12Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS...AS WELL AS THE
WESTERNMOST WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK
STAYING INLAND AND HEADING DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO WINTRY
MIX/ICE...TO PLAIN RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A LOT OF IT. BEING
PRECEDED BY OUR ARCTIC WEEKEND WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN WOULD
DIRECTLY RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES IF THIS CAME
TO PASS. 12Z GFS IS FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK...AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN ECMWF WITH ITS INLAND TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD POSE
BOTH A HEAVY SNOW THREAT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81/ AND A
POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS. AND FINALLY...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 18Z GFS MODELS HAVE
LESS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND THUS A
WEAKER FASTER SURFACE LOW WITH FURTHER EAST TRACK /LONG ISLAND/.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE US MAINLY SNOW...HEAVIEST SOUTHEAST AND
PERHAPS LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW...THAT
IS...MOSTLY MISSING THE REGION. ALSO THE 18Z GFS...BEING WEAKER
WITH THE MON NGT-TUE LOW...GIVES ENERGY TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW THEN. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
QUIETER BUT A WARM FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS WELL AS MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

KEY POINTS AT THIS JUNCTURE ARE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM OF SOME FORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...AND THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS THE DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARCTIC FNT WILL GENERATE SNOW SQUALLS AND IFR CONDS OVRNGT AS IT
PASSES THRU. SW WINDS AHD OF THE FNT WILL BECOME NNW AND GUSTY
BHD. STRONG WINDS WILL CREAT BLSN AND REDUCED VSBYS EVEN WHEN THE
SQUALLS HAVE PASSED. SQUALLS WILL CONT FOR A TIME SAT BHD THE
FNT...FLWD BY DRIER AND AND VFR CONDS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN/MON...VFR.

MON NGT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN/MDP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DGM/MDP
AVIATION...DGM/DJP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 130706
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
206 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MAKE BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL BRING
IN BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE WELL BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER SOME WARMING MONDAY...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT OUR REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
845 PM UPDATE...
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE DOWNWIND LAKE ERIE AND
ESPECIALLY LAKE ONTARIO WITH WSW FLOW. HOWEVER...ARCTIC FRONT IS
NOW SHARPLY DIVING RIGHT INTO THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND. THIS CAN BE
SEEN ON RADAR AS A THIN BAND OF SOUTHBOUND SNOW SHOWERS CROSSING
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO FINGER LAKES-SYRACUSE-BOONVILLE 10-11PM. WE CAN THUS
EXPECT THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS A SQUALL THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF INITIALLY WITH HELP
FROM UPSTREAM LAKE ERIE MOISTURE...BUT WILL LOSE ORGANIZATION AND
INTENSITY AS CONTINUES SOUTH TO THE TWIN TIERS. THOUGH THE BAND
WILL BREAK UP DURING ITS TREK...ANYONE ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT STILL GETS ONE OF THE SCATTERED VESTIGES OF THE BAND
CAN ANTICIPATE BRIEF SQUALL-LIKE CONDITIONS AND A QUICK DUSTING OF
SNOW. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN AS DESCRIBED BELOW. WHEN MOST OF US WAKE
UP...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND ZERO FROM THE TWIN TIERS
NORTHWARD AND ON THE WAY THERE FOR POINTS SOUTH.
UNFORTUNATELY...THEY WILL ONLY GO DOWN FROM THERE THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WIND CHILLS WILL PROGRESSIVELY REACH DANGEROUS LEVELS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WELL NORTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THERE WAS A WIDE AREA OF
LIGHT ECHOES COVERING MOST OF PA INTO SOUTHERN NY AT THIS TIME
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL SHORT WAVE RIPPLING NORTHEAST ACROSS PA
AND NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THESE ECHOES WERE VIRGA
SINCE IT WAS SO DRY BELOW. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME FLURRIES MAINLY TO NORTHEAST PA AND THE CATSKILLS EARLY
THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS PROJECTED TO
REACH THE FINGER LAKES TO UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY BY 3-5Z AND FROM
COOPERSTOWN-BINGHAMTON AND TOWANDA BY 6-7Z AND ACROSS AVP-MSV BY
8-9Z. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOW SQUALL TIED
TO THIS FRONT INITIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAP INTO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
HOWEVER AS THIS SNOW SQUALL MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAKES IT IS
PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW-LEVELS BECOME LESS UNSTABLE AWAY
FROM LAKE MOISTURE. HENCE WE SEE A SNOW SQUALL REACHING ROUGHLY
FROM SYR-PEO BY ABOUT 3-5Z...UCA- ELM BY 4-6Z AND THE COOPERSTOWN
TO BGM AND TOWANDA BY 6-8Z OR SO. BY THIS TIME IT SHOULD WEAKEN
AND NOT BE SIGNIFICANT AS IT TRAVELS FARTHER S AND E. AFTER THIS
SQUALL PASSES, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL FILL
INTO DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A 300 DEGREE FLOW PATTERN. ALL
THE CLOUDS WILL BE COLDER THAN THE MAXIMUM GROWTH REGIME FOR ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE VERY DRY. THIS WILL PRECLUDE A
MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR ONONDAGA...SOUTHERN
CAYUGA...MADISON...CHENANGO AND CORTLAND COUNTIES. WE SEE MAYBE 2
TO 6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM LATER THIS EVENING TO
SATURDAY EVENING. HENCE NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NEEDED. WITH
THE WINDS WE DO ALSO HAVING BLOWING SNOW IN GRIDS THROUGH SAT.

COLD AIR PLUNGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE MINUS 20S C SATURDAY AND BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND -29C OR SO BY 6Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS
PLUMMET INTO THE DANGEROUS CATEGORY WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
SEEING CHILLS DOWN BELOW MINUS 40 SAT NGT/EARLY SUN. HENCE KEPT
WIND CHILL WARNINGS GOING ALL ZONES. THIS COLD AIR MASS COULD
RIVAL SOME OF THE COLDEST ONES LAST YEAR FOR THE UPPER MOHAWK TO
THE CATSKILLS. FARTHER WEST A 300 DEGREE L0W-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL
WARM THE SURFACE LATER SOME FROM LAKE ONTARIO. SO WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING SUCH EXTREME COLD FARTHER WEST INTO THE FINGER LAKES,
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA. IT STILL WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN THESE
AREAS AND LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 TO 15 BELOW LOCALLY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 15 BELOW TO 35 BELOW
WITH THE COLDEST VALUES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THESE AREAS.
IN FACT THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS
ARCTIC OUTBREAK SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE WELL MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND COVERS THE REGION BY SUN
PM. THIS WILL DROP THE WIND SPEEDS AND WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL MIGRATE
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THICKER
CLOUD COVER REACHES ROUGHLY FROM BUF-MSV BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MUCH OF NE PA AND
SC NY/FINGER LAKES FROM RADIATING TO BELOW ZERO SUN NGT. WE SEE
BELOW ZERO READINGS...POSSIBLY TO BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO FROM THE
UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN DELAWARE AND
OTSEGO/MADISON AND CHENANGO COUNTIES BY MONDAY AM.

FOR MONDAY WE WILL SEE A SHOT OF WAA LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS
THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN BELOW 0C. SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE
VERY DRY AND THIS FIRST WAVE DOES NOT HAVE THAT MUCH MOISTURE
REACHING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WE ONLY SEE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. MODEL QPF IS BELOW .1 INCHES MONDAY SO NOT SEEING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT BEFORE 00Z TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

200 AM UPDATE...00Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER FOR THE STORM
EARLY IN THE PD WITH THE EURO STILL THE WARMEST...BUT NOW TRENDING
TWRD THE COLDER CANADIAN/NAM/GFS. LATTER THREE IS REALATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 00Z WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING UP CST NEAR NYC AND HDG
INTO WRN NEW ENG. THIS WLD KEEP THE CHANCE FOR MIXED PCPN OVER THE
ERN ZONES...BUT PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. OUTLIER EURO WLD KEEP A CHG TO RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...XCPT PERHAPS IN THE FAR WRN CWA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLDER TREND BUT AM
NOT YET COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE IDEA. LOW CONFIDENCE FCST
CONTS...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE SURE TO BE MADE AS THE EVENT
DRAWS CLSR. PRVS DISC CONTS BLO.

330 PM THU UPDATE...
LARGE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN MOST MODELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR STORM TRACK
AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPES.

12Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS...AS WELL AS THE
WESTERNMOST WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK
STAYING INLAND AND HEADING DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO WINTRY
MIX/ICE...TO PLAIN RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A LOT OF IT. BEING
PRECEDED BY OUR ARCTIC WEEKEND WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN WOULD
DIRECTLY RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES IF THIS CAME
TO PASS. 12Z GFS IS FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK...AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN ECMWF WITH ITS INLAND TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD POSE
BOTH A HEAVY SNOW THREAT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81/ AND A
POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS. AND FINALLY...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 18Z GFS MODELS HAVE
LESS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND THUS A
WEAKER FASTER SURFACE LOW WITH FURTHER EAST TRACK /LONG ISLAND/.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE US MAINLY SNOW...HEAVIEST SOUTHEAST AND
PERHAPS LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW...THAT
IS...MOSTLY MISSING THE REGION. ALSO THE 18Z GFS...BEING WEAKER
WITH THE MON NGT-TUE LOW...GIVES ENERGY TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW THEN. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
QUIETER BUT A WARM FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS WELL AS MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

KEY POINTS AT THIS JUNCTURE ARE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM OF SOME FORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...AND THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS THE DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARCTIC FNT WILL GENERATE SNOW SQUALLS AND IFR CONDS OVRNGT AS IT
PASSES THRU. SW WINDS AHD OF THE FNT WILL BECOME NNW AND GUSTY
BHD. STRONG WINDS WILL CREAT BLSN AND REDUCED VSBYS EVEN WHEN THE
SQUALLS HAVE PASSED. SQUALLS WILL CONT FOR A TIME SAT BHD THE
FNT...FLWD BY DRIER AND AND VFR CONDS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN/MON...VFR.

MON NGT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN/MDP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DGM/MDP
AVIATION...DGM/DJP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 130706
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
206 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MAKE BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL BRING
IN BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE WELL BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER SOME WARMING MONDAY...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT OUR REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
845 PM UPDATE...
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE DOWNWIND LAKE ERIE AND
ESPECIALLY LAKE ONTARIO WITH WSW FLOW. HOWEVER...ARCTIC FRONT IS
NOW SHARPLY DIVING RIGHT INTO THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND. THIS CAN BE
SEEN ON RADAR AS A THIN BAND OF SOUTHBOUND SNOW SHOWERS CROSSING
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO FINGER LAKES-SYRACUSE-BOONVILLE 10-11PM. WE CAN THUS
EXPECT THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS A SQUALL THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF INITIALLY WITH HELP
FROM UPSTREAM LAKE ERIE MOISTURE...BUT WILL LOSE ORGANIZATION AND
INTENSITY AS CONTINUES SOUTH TO THE TWIN TIERS. THOUGH THE BAND
WILL BREAK UP DURING ITS TREK...ANYONE ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT STILL GETS ONE OF THE SCATTERED VESTIGES OF THE BAND
CAN ANTICIPATE BRIEF SQUALL-LIKE CONDITIONS AND A QUICK DUSTING OF
SNOW. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN AS DESCRIBED BELOW. WHEN MOST OF US WAKE
UP...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND ZERO FROM THE TWIN TIERS
NORTHWARD AND ON THE WAY THERE FOR POINTS SOUTH.
UNFORTUNATELY...THEY WILL ONLY GO DOWN FROM THERE THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WIND CHILLS WILL PROGRESSIVELY REACH DANGEROUS LEVELS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WELL NORTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THERE WAS A WIDE AREA OF
LIGHT ECHOES COVERING MOST OF PA INTO SOUTHERN NY AT THIS TIME
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL SHORT WAVE RIPPLING NORTHEAST ACROSS PA
AND NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THESE ECHOES WERE VIRGA
SINCE IT WAS SO DRY BELOW. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME FLURRIES MAINLY TO NORTHEAST PA AND THE CATSKILLS EARLY
THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS PROJECTED TO
REACH THE FINGER LAKES TO UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY BY 3-5Z AND FROM
COOPERSTOWN-BINGHAMTON AND TOWANDA BY 6-7Z AND ACROSS AVP-MSV BY
8-9Z. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOW SQUALL TIED
TO THIS FRONT INITIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAP INTO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
HOWEVER AS THIS SNOW SQUALL MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAKES IT IS
PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW-LEVELS BECOME LESS UNSTABLE AWAY
FROM LAKE MOISTURE. HENCE WE SEE A SNOW SQUALL REACHING ROUGHLY
FROM SYR-PEO BY ABOUT 3-5Z...UCA- ELM BY 4-6Z AND THE COOPERSTOWN
TO BGM AND TOWANDA BY 6-8Z OR SO. BY THIS TIME IT SHOULD WEAKEN
AND NOT BE SIGNIFICANT AS IT TRAVELS FARTHER S AND E. AFTER THIS
SQUALL PASSES, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL FILL
INTO DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A 300 DEGREE FLOW PATTERN. ALL
THE CLOUDS WILL BE COLDER THAN THE MAXIMUM GROWTH REGIME FOR ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE VERY DRY. THIS WILL PRECLUDE A
MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR ONONDAGA...SOUTHERN
CAYUGA...MADISON...CHENANGO AND CORTLAND COUNTIES. WE SEE MAYBE 2
TO 6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM LATER THIS EVENING TO
SATURDAY EVENING. HENCE NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NEEDED. WITH
THE WINDS WE DO ALSO HAVING BLOWING SNOW IN GRIDS THROUGH SAT.

COLD AIR PLUNGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE MINUS 20S C SATURDAY AND BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND -29C OR SO BY 6Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS
PLUMMET INTO THE DANGEROUS CATEGORY WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
SEEING CHILLS DOWN BELOW MINUS 40 SAT NGT/EARLY SUN. HENCE KEPT
WIND CHILL WARNINGS GOING ALL ZONES. THIS COLD AIR MASS COULD
RIVAL SOME OF THE COLDEST ONES LAST YEAR FOR THE UPPER MOHAWK TO
THE CATSKILLS. FARTHER WEST A 300 DEGREE L0W-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL
WARM THE SURFACE LATER SOME FROM LAKE ONTARIO. SO WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING SUCH EXTREME COLD FARTHER WEST INTO THE FINGER LAKES,
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA. IT STILL WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN THESE
AREAS AND LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 TO 15 BELOW LOCALLY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 15 BELOW TO 35 BELOW
WITH THE COLDEST VALUES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THESE AREAS.
IN FACT THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS
ARCTIC OUTBREAK SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE WELL MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND COVERS THE REGION BY SUN
PM. THIS WILL DROP THE WIND SPEEDS AND WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL MIGRATE
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THICKER
CLOUD COVER REACHES ROUGHLY FROM BUF-MSV BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MUCH OF NE PA AND
SC NY/FINGER LAKES FROM RADIATING TO BELOW ZERO SUN NGT. WE SEE
BELOW ZERO READINGS...POSSIBLY TO BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO FROM THE
UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN DELAWARE AND
OTSEGO/MADISON AND CHENANGO COUNTIES BY MONDAY AM.

FOR MONDAY WE WILL SEE A SHOT OF WAA LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS
THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN BELOW 0C. SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE
VERY DRY AND THIS FIRST WAVE DOES NOT HAVE THAT MUCH MOISTURE
REACHING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WE ONLY SEE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. MODEL QPF IS BELOW .1 INCHES MONDAY SO NOT SEEING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT BEFORE 00Z TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

200 AM UPDATE...00Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER FOR THE STORM
EARLY IN THE PD WITH THE EURO STILL THE WARMEST...BUT NOW TRENDING
TWRD THE COLDER CANADIAN/NAM/GFS. LATTER THREE IS REALATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 00Z WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING UP CST NEAR NYC AND HDG
INTO WRN NEW ENG. THIS WLD KEEP THE CHANCE FOR MIXED PCPN OVER THE
ERN ZONES...BUT PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. OUTLIER EURO WLD KEEP A CHG TO RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...XCPT PERHAPS IN THE FAR WRN CWA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLDER TREND BUT AM
NOT YET COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE IDEA. LOW CONFIDENCE FCST
CONTS...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE SURE TO BE MADE AS THE EVENT
DRAWS CLSR. PRVS DISC CONTS BLO.

330 PM THU UPDATE...
LARGE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN MOST MODELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR STORM TRACK
AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPES.

12Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS...AS WELL AS THE
WESTERNMOST WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK
STAYING INLAND AND HEADING DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO WINTRY
MIX/ICE...TO PLAIN RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A LOT OF IT. BEING
PRECEDED BY OUR ARCTIC WEEKEND WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN WOULD
DIRECTLY RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES IF THIS CAME
TO PASS. 12Z GFS IS FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK...AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN ECMWF WITH ITS INLAND TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD POSE
BOTH A HEAVY SNOW THREAT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81/ AND A
POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS. AND FINALLY...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 18Z GFS MODELS HAVE
LESS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND THUS A
WEAKER FASTER SURFACE LOW WITH FURTHER EAST TRACK /LONG ISLAND/.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE US MAINLY SNOW...HEAVIEST SOUTHEAST AND
PERHAPS LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW...THAT
IS...MOSTLY MISSING THE REGION. ALSO THE 18Z GFS...BEING WEAKER
WITH THE MON NGT-TUE LOW...GIVES ENERGY TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW THEN. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
QUIETER BUT A WARM FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS WELL AS MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

KEY POINTS AT THIS JUNCTURE ARE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM OF SOME FORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...AND THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS THE DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARCTIC FNT WILL GENERATE SNOW SQUALLS AND IFR CONDS OVRNGT AS IT
PASSES THRU. SW WINDS AHD OF THE FNT WILL BECOME NNW AND GUSTY
BHD. STRONG WINDS WILL CREAT BLSN AND REDUCED VSBYS EVEN WHEN THE
SQUALLS HAVE PASSED. SQUALLS WILL CONT FOR A TIME SAT BHD THE
FNT...FLWD BY DRIER AND AND VFR CONDS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN/MON...VFR.

MON NGT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN/MDP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DGM/MDP
AVIATION...DGM/DJP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 130547
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1247 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MAKE BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL BRING
IN BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE WELL BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER SOME WARMING MONDAY...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT OUR REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
845 PM UPDATE...
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE DOWNWIND LAKE ERIE AND
ESPECIALLY LAKE ONTARIO WITH WSW FLOW. HOWEVER...ARCTIC FRONT IS
NOW SHARPLY DIVING RIGHT INTO THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND. THIS CAN BE
SEEN ON RADAR AS A THIN BAND OF SOUTHBOUND SNOW SHOWERS CROSSING
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO FINGER LAKES-SYRACUSE-BOONVILLE 10-11PM. WE CAN THUS
EXPECT THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS A SQUALL THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF INITIALLY WITH HELP
FROM UPSTREAM LAKE ERIE MOISTURE...BUT WILL LOSE ORGANIZATION AND
INTENSITY AS CONTINUES SOUTH TO THE TWIN TIERS. THOUGH THE BAND
WILL BREAK UP DURING ITS TREK...ANYONE ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT STILL GETS ONE OF THE SCATTERED VESTIGES OF THE BAND
CAN ANTICIPATE BRIEF SQUALL-LIKE CONDITIONS AND A QUICK DUSTING OF
SNOW. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN AS DESCRIBED BELOW. WHEN MOST OF US WAKE
UP...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND ZERO FROM THE TWIN TIERS
NORTHWARD AND ON THE WAY THERE FOR POINTS SOUTH.
UNFORTUNATELY...THEY WILL ONLY GO DOWN FROM THERE THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WIND CHILLS WILL PROGRESSIVELY REACH DANGEROUS LEVELS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WELL NORTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THERE WAS A WIDE AREA OF
LIGHT ECHOES COVERING MOST OF PA INTO SOUTHERN NY AT THIS TIME
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL SHORT WAVE RIPPLING NORTHEAST ACROSS PA
AND NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THESE ECHOES WERE VIRGA
SINCE IT WAS SO DRY BELOW. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME FLURRIES MAINLY TO NORTHEAST PA AND THE CATSKILLS EARLY
THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS PROJECTED TO
REACH THE FINGER LAKES TO UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY BY 3-5Z AND FROM
COOPERSTOWN-BINGHAMTON AND TOWANDA BY 6-7Z AND ACROSS AVP-MSV BY
8-9Z. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOW SQUALL TIED
TO THIS FRONT INITIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAP INTO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
HOWEVER AS THIS SNOW SQUALL MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAKES IT IS
PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW-LEVELS BECOME LESS UNSTABLE AWAY
FROM LAKE MOISTURE. HENCE WE SEE A SNOW SQUALL REACHING ROUGHLY
FROM SYR-PEO BY ABOUT 3-5Z...UCA- ELM BY 4-6Z AND THE COOPERSTOWN
TO BGM AND TOWANDA BY 6-8Z OR SO. BY THIS TIME IT SHOULD WEAKEN
AND NOT BE SIGNIFICANT AS IT TRAVELS FARTHER S AND E. AFTER THIS
SQUALL PASSES, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL FILL
INTO DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A 300 DEGREE FLOW PATTERN. ALL
THE CLOUDS WILL BE COLDER THAN THE MAXIMUM GROWTH REGIME FOR ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE VERY DRY. THIS WILL PRECLUDE A
MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR ONONDAGA...SOUTHERN
CAYUGA...MADISON...CHENANGO AND CORTLAND COUNTIES. WE SEE MAYBE 2
TO 6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM LATER THIS EVENING TO
SATURDAY EVENING. HENCE NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NEEDED. WITH
THE WINDS WE DO ALSO HAVING BLOWING SNOW IN GRIDS THROUGH SAT.

COLD AIR PLUNGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE MINUS 20S C SATURDAY AND BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND -29C OR SO BY 6Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS
PLUMMET INTO THE DANGEROUS CATEGORY WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
SEEING CHILLS DOWN BELOW MINUS 40 SAT NGT/EARLY SUN. HENCE KEPT
WIND CHILL WARNINGS GOING ALL ZONES. THIS COLD AIR MASS COULD
RIVAL SOME OF THE COLDEST ONES LAST YEAR FOR THE UPPER MOHAWK TO
THE CATSKILLS. FARTHER WEST A 300 DEGREE L0W-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL
WARM THE SURFACE LATER SOME FROM LAKE ONTARIO. SO WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING SUCH EXTREME COLD FARTHER WEST INTO THE FINGER LAKES,
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA. IT STILL WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN THESE
AREAS AND LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 TO 15 BELOW LOCALLY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 15 BELOW TO 35 BELOW
WITH THE COLDEST VALUES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THESE AREAS.
IN FACT THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS
ARCTIC OUTBREAK SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE WELL MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND COVERS THE REGION BY SUN
PM. THIS WILL DROP THE WIND SPEEDS AND WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL MIGRATE
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THICKER
CLOUD COVER REACHES ROUGHLY FROM BUF-MSV BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MUCH OF NE PA AND
SC NY/FINGER LAKES FROM RADIATING TO BELOW ZERO SUN NGT. WE SEE
BELOW ZERO READINGS...POSSIBLY TO BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO FROM THE
UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN DELAWARE AND
OTSEGO/MADISON AND CHENANGO COUNTIES BY MONDAY AM.

FOR MONDAY WE WILL SEE A SHOT OF WAA LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS
THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN BELOW 0C. SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE
VERY DRY AND THIS FIRST WAVE DOES NOT HAVE THAT MUCH MOISTURE
REACHING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WE ONLY SEE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. MODEL QPF IS BELOW .1 INCHES MONDAY SO NOT SEEING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT BEFORE 00Z TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
LARGE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN MOST MODELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR STORM TRACK
AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPES.

12Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS...AS WELL AS THE
WESTERNMOST WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK
STAYING INLAND AND HEADING DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO WINTRY
MIX/ICE...TO PLAIN RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A LOT OF IT. BEING
PRECEDED BY OUR ARCTIC WEEKEND WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN WOULD
DIRECTLY RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES IF THIS CAME
TO PASS. 12Z GFS IS FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK...AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN ECMWF WITH ITS INLAND TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD POSE
BOTH A HEAVY SNOW THREAT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81/ AND A
POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS. AND FINALLY...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 18Z GFS MODELS HAVE
LESS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND THUS A
WEAKER FASTER SURFACE LOW WITH FURTHER EAST TRACK /LONG ISLAND/.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE US MAINLY SNOW...HEAVIEST SOUTHEAST AND
PERHAPS LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW...THAT
IS...MOSTLY MISSING THE REGION. ALSO THE 18Z GFS...BEING WEAKER
WITH THE MON NGT-TUE LOW...GIVES ENERGY TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW THEN. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
QUIETER BUT A WARM FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS WELL AS MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

KEY POINTS AT THIS JUNCTURE ARE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM OF SOME FORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...AND THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS THE DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ARCTIC FNT WILL GENERATE SNOW SQUALLS AND IFR CONDS OVRNGT AS IT
PASSES THRU. SW WINDS AHD OF THE FNT WILL BECOME NNW AND GUSTY
BHD. STRONG WINDS WILL CREAT BLSN AND REDUCED VSBYS EVEN WHEN THE
SQUALLS HAVE PASSED. SQUALLS WILL CONT FOR A TIME SAT BHD THE
FNT...FLWD BY DRIER AND AND VFR CONDS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN/MON...VFR.

MON NGT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-
     062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN/MDP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM/DJP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 130547
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1247 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MAKE BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL BRING
IN BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE WELL BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER SOME WARMING MONDAY...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT OUR REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
845 PM UPDATE...
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE DOWNWIND LAKE ERIE AND
ESPECIALLY LAKE ONTARIO WITH WSW FLOW. HOWEVER...ARCTIC FRONT IS
NOW SHARPLY DIVING RIGHT INTO THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND. THIS CAN BE
SEEN ON RADAR AS A THIN BAND OF SOUTHBOUND SNOW SHOWERS CROSSING
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO FINGER LAKES-SYRACUSE-BOONVILLE 10-11PM. WE CAN THUS
EXPECT THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS A SQUALL THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF INITIALLY WITH HELP
FROM UPSTREAM LAKE ERIE MOISTURE...BUT WILL LOSE ORGANIZATION AND
INTENSITY AS CONTINUES SOUTH TO THE TWIN TIERS. THOUGH THE BAND
WILL BREAK UP DURING ITS TREK...ANYONE ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT STILL GETS ONE OF THE SCATTERED VESTIGES OF THE BAND
CAN ANTICIPATE BRIEF SQUALL-LIKE CONDITIONS AND A QUICK DUSTING OF
SNOW. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN AS DESCRIBED BELOW. WHEN MOST OF US WAKE
UP...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND ZERO FROM THE TWIN TIERS
NORTHWARD AND ON THE WAY THERE FOR POINTS SOUTH.
UNFORTUNATELY...THEY WILL ONLY GO DOWN FROM THERE THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WIND CHILLS WILL PROGRESSIVELY REACH DANGEROUS LEVELS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WELL NORTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THERE WAS A WIDE AREA OF
LIGHT ECHOES COVERING MOST OF PA INTO SOUTHERN NY AT THIS TIME
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL SHORT WAVE RIPPLING NORTHEAST ACROSS PA
AND NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THESE ECHOES WERE VIRGA
SINCE IT WAS SO DRY BELOW. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME FLURRIES MAINLY TO NORTHEAST PA AND THE CATSKILLS EARLY
THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS PROJECTED TO
REACH THE FINGER LAKES TO UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY BY 3-5Z AND FROM
COOPERSTOWN-BINGHAMTON AND TOWANDA BY 6-7Z AND ACROSS AVP-MSV BY
8-9Z. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOW SQUALL TIED
TO THIS FRONT INITIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAP INTO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
HOWEVER AS THIS SNOW SQUALL MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAKES IT IS
PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW-LEVELS BECOME LESS UNSTABLE AWAY
FROM LAKE MOISTURE. HENCE WE SEE A SNOW SQUALL REACHING ROUGHLY
FROM SYR-PEO BY ABOUT 3-5Z...UCA- ELM BY 4-6Z AND THE COOPERSTOWN
TO BGM AND TOWANDA BY 6-8Z OR SO. BY THIS TIME IT SHOULD WEAKEN
AND NOT BE SIGNIFICANT AS IT TRAVELS FARTHER S AND E. AFTER THIS
SQUALL PASSES, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL FILL
INTO DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A 300 DEGREE FLOW PATTERN. ALL
THE CLOUDS WILL BE COLDER THAN THE MAXIMUM GROWTH REGIME FOR ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE VERY DRY. THIS WILL PRECLUDE A
MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR ONONDAGA...SOUTHERN
CAYUGA...MADISON...CHENANGO AND CORTLAND COUNTIES. WE SEE MAYBE 2
TO 6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM LATER THIS EVENING TO
SATURDAY EVENING. HENCE NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NEEDED. WITH
THE WINDS WE DO ALSO HAVING BLOWING SNOW IN GRIDS THROUGH SAT.

COLD AIR PLUNGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE MINUS 20S C SATURDAY AND BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND -29C OR SO BY 6Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS
PLUMMET INTO THE DANGEROUS CATEGORY WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
SEEING CHILLS DOWN BELOW MINUS 40 SAT NGT/EARLY SUN. HENCE KEPT
WIND CHILL WARNINGS GOING ALL ZONES. THIS COLD AIR MASS COULD
RIVAL SOME OF THE COLDEST ONES LAST YEAR FOR THE UPPER MOHAWK TO
THE CATSKILLS. FARTHER WEST A 300 DEGREE L0W-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL
WARM THE SURFACE LATER SOME FROM LAKE ONTARIO. SO WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING SUCH EXTREME COLD FARTHER WEST INTO THE FINGER LAKES,
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA. IT STILL WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN THESE
AREAS AND LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 TO 15 BELOW LOCALLY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 15 BELOW TO 35 BELOW
WITH THE COLDEST VALUES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THESE AREAS.
IN FACT THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS
ARCTIC OUTBREAK SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE WELL MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND COVERS THE REGION BY SUN
PM. THIS WILL DROP THE WIND SPEEDS AND WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL MIGRATE
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THICKER
CLOUD COVER REACHES ROUGHLY FROM BUF-MSV BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MUCH OF NE PA AND
SC NY/FINGER LAKES FROM RADIATING TO BELOW ZERO SUN NGT. WE SEE
BELOW ZERO READINGS...POSSIBLY TO BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO FROM THE
UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN DELAWARE AND
OTSEGO/MADISON AND CHENANGO COUNTIES BY MONDAY AM.

FOR MONDAY WE WILL SEE A SHOT OF WAA LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS
THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN BELOW 0C. SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE
VERY DRY AND THIS FIRST WAVE DOES NOT HAVE THAT MUCH MOISTURE
REACHING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WE ONLY SEE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. MODEL QPF IS BELOW .1 INCHES MONDAY SO NOT SEEING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT BEFORE 00Z TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
LARGE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN MOST MODELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR STORM TRACK
AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPES.

12Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS...AS WELL AS THE
WESTERNMOST WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK
STAYING INLAND AND HEADING DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO WINTRY
MIX/ICE...TO PLAIN RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A LOT OF IT. BEING
PRECEDED BY OUR ARCTIC WEEKEND WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN WOULD
DIRECTLY RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES IF THIS CAME
TO PASS. 12Z GFS IS FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK...AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN ECMWF WITH ITS INLAND TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD POSE
BOTH A HEAVY SNOW THREAT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81/ AND A
POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS. AND FINALLY...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 18Z GFS MODELS HAVE
LESS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND THUS A
WEAKER FASTER SURFACE LOW WITH FURTHER EAST TRACK /LONG ISLAND/.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE US MAINLY SNOW...HEAVIEST SOUTHEAST AND
PERHAPS LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW...THAT
IS...MOSTLY MISSING THE REGION. ALSO THE 18Z GFS...BEING WEAKER
WITH THE MON NGT-TUE LOW...GIVES ENERGY TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW THEN. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
QUIETER BUT A WARM FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS WELL AS MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

KEY POINTS AT THIS JUNCTURE ARE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM OF SOME FORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...AND THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS THE DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ARCTIC FNT WILL GENERATE SNOW SQUALLS AND IFR CONDS OVRNGT AS IT
PASSES THRU. SW WINDS AHD OF THE FNT WILL BECOME NNW AND GUSTY
BHD. STRONG WINDS WILL CREAT BLSN AND REDUCED VSBYS EVEN WHEN THE
SQUALLS HAVE PASSED. SQUALLS WILL CONT FOR A TIME SAT BHD THE
FNT...FLWD BY DRIER AND AND VFR CONDS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN/MON...VFR.

MON NGT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-
     062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN/MDP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM/DJP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 130145
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
845 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MAKE BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL BRING
IN BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE WELL BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER SOME WARMING MONDAY...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT OUR REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
845 PM UPDATE...
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE DOWNWIND LAKE ERIE AND
ESPECIALLY LAKE ONTARIO WITH WSW FLOW. HOWEVER...ARCTIC FRONT IS
NOW SHARPLY DIVING RIGHT INTO THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND. THIS CAN BE
SEEN ON RADAR AS A THIN BAND OF SOUTHBOUND SNOW SHOWERS CROSSING
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO FINGER LAKES-SYRACUSE-BOONVILLE 10-11PM. WE CAN THUS
EXPECT THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS A SQUALL THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF INITIALLY WITH HELP
FROM UPSTREAM LAKE ERIE MOISTURE...BUT WILL LOSE ORGANIZATION AND
INTENSITY AS CONTINUES SOUTH TO THE TWIN TIERS. THOUGH THE BAND
WILL BREAK UP DURING ITS TREK...ANYONE ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT STILL GETS ONE OF THE SCATTERED VESTIGES OF THE BAND
CAN ANTICIPATE BRIEF SQUALL-LIKE CONDITIONS AND A QUICK DUSTING OF
SNOW. EXPECTATIONS REMAIN AS DESCRIBED BELOW. WHEN MOST OF US WAKE
UP...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND ZERO FROM THE TWIN TIERS
NORTHWARD AND ON THE WAY THERE FOR POINTS SOUTH.
UNFORTUNATELY...THEY WILL ONLY GO DOWN FROM THERE THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WIND CHILLS WILL PROGRESSIVELY REACH DANGEROUS LEVELS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WELL NORTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THERE WAS A WIDE AREA OF
LIGHT ECHOES COVERING MOST OF PA INTO SOUTHERN NY AT THIS TIME
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL SHORT WAVE RIPPLING NORTHEAST ACROSS PA
AND NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THESE ECHOES WERE VIRGA
SINCE IT WAS SO DRY BELOW. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME FLURRIES MAINLY TO NORTHEAST PA AND THE CATSKILLS EARLY
THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS PROJECTED TO
REACH THE FINGER LAKES TO UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY BY 3-5Z AND FROM
COOPERSTOWN-BINGHAMTON AND TOWANDA BY 6-7Z AND ACROSS AVP-MSV BY
8-9Z. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOW SQUALL TIED
TO THIS FRONT INITIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAP INTO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
HOWEVER AS THIS SNOW SQUALL MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAKES IT IS
PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW-LEVELS BECOME LESS UNSTABLE AWAY
FROM LAKE MOISTURE. HENCE WE SEE A SNOW SQUALL REACHING ROUGHLY
FROM SYR-PEO BY ABOUT 3-5Z...UCA- ELM BY 4-6Z AND THE COOPERSTOWN
TO BGM AND TOWANDA BY 6-8Z OR SO. BY THIS TIME IT SHOULD WEAKEN
AND NOT BE SIGNIFICANT AS IT TRAVELS FARTHER S AND E. AFTER THIS
SQUALL PASSES, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL FILL
INTO DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A 300 DEGREE FLOW PATTERN. ALL
THE CLOUDS WILL BE COLDER THAN THE MAXIMUM GROWTH REGIME FOR ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE VERY DRY. THIS WILL PRECLUDE A
MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR ONONDAGA...SOUTHERN
CAYUGA...MADISON...CHENANGO AND CORTLAND COUNTIES. WE SEE MAYBE 2
TO 6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM LATER THIS EVENING TO
SATURDAY EVENING. HENCE NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NEEDED. WITH
THE WINDS WE DO ALSO HAVING BLOWING SNOW IN GRIDS THROUGH SAT.

COLD AIR PLUNGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE MINUS 20S C SATURDAY AND BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND -29C OR SO BY 6Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS
PLUMMET INTO THE DANGEROUS CATEGORY WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
SEEING CHILLS DOWN BELOW MINUS 40 SAT NGT/EARLY SUN. HENCE KEPT
WIND CHILL WARNINGS GOING ALL ZONES. THIS COLD AIR MASS COULD
RIVAL SOME OF THE COLDEST ONES LAST YEAR FOR THE UPPER MOHAWK TO
THE CATSKILLS. FARTHER WEST A 300 DEGREE L0W-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL
WARM THE SURFACE LATER SOME FROM LAKE ONTARIO. SO WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING SUCH EXTREME COLD FARTHER WEST INTO THE FINGER LAKES,
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA. IT STILL WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN THESE
AREAS AND LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 TO 15 BELOW LOCALLY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 15 BELOW TO 35 BELOW
WITH THE COLDEST VALUES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THESE AREAS.
IN FACT THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS
ARCTIC OUTBREAK SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE WELL MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND COVERS THE REGION BY SUN
PM. THIS WILL DROP THE WIND SPEEDS AND WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL MIGRATE
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THICKER
CLOUD COVER REACHES ROUGHLY FROM BUF-MSV BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MUCH OF NE PA AND
SC NY/FINGER LAKES FROM RADIATING TO BELOW ZERO SUN NGT. WE SEE
BELOW ZERO READINGS...POSSIBLY TO BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO FROM THE
UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN DELAWARE AND
OTSEGO/MADISON AND CHENANGO COUNTIES BY MONDAY AM.

FOR MONDAY WE WILL SEE A SHOT OF WAA LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS
THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN BELOW 0C. SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE
VERY DRY AND THIS FIRST WAVE DOES NOT HAVE THAT MUCH MOISTURE
REACHING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WE ONLY SEE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. MODEL QPF IS BELOW .1 INCHES MONDAY SO NOT SEEING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT BEFORE 00Z TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
LARGE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN MOST MODELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR STORM TRACK
AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPES.

12Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS...AS WELL AS THE
WESTERNMOST WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK
STAYING INLAND AND HEADING DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO WINTRY
MIX/ICE...TO PLAIN RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A LOT OF IT. BEING
PRECEDED BY OUR ARCTIC WEEKEND WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN WOULD
DIRECTLY RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES IF THIS CAME
TO PASS. 12Z GFS IS FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK...AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN ECMWF WITH ITS INLAND TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD POSE
BOTH A HEAVY SNOW THREAT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81/ AND A
POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS. AND FINALLY...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 18Z GFS MODELS HAVE
LESS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND THUS A
WEAKER FASTER SURFACE LOW WITH FURTHER EAST TRACK /LONG ISLAND/.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE US MAINLY SNOW...HEAVIEST SOUTHEAST AND
PERHAPS LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW...THAT
IS...MOSTLY MISSING THE REGION. ALSO THE 18Z GFS...BEING WEAKER
WITH THE MON NGT-TUE LOW...GIVES ENERGY TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW THEN. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
QUIETER BUT A WARM FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS WELL AS MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

KEY POINTS AT THIS JUNCTURE ARE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM OF SOME FORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...AND THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS THE DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SNOW SQUALLS THROUGH THE NY TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING TEMPORARY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF 1 MILE OR
LESS. THEREAFTER, A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL SET UP NEAR
SYR/RME/ITH. THE SNOW WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
KNOTS, ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW, FURTHER
RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT INTO SUN...RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KSYR
AND KITH, WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KELM AND KBGM.
KRME AND KAVP SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR.

MON...VFR.

MON NGT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN/MDP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 122337
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
637 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MAKE BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL BRING
IN BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE WELL BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER SOME WARMING MONDAY...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT OUR REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WELL NORTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THERE WAS A WIDE AREA OF
LIGHT ECHOES COVERING MOST OF PA INTO SOUTHERN NY AT THIS TIME
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL SHORT WAVE RIPPLING NORTHEAST ACROSS PA
AND NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THESE ECHOES WERE VIRGA
SINCE IT WAS SO DRY BELOW. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME FLURRIES MAINLY TO NORTHEAST PA AND THE CATSKILLS EARLY
THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS PROJECTED TO
REACH THE FINGER LAKES TO UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY BY 3-5Z AND FROM
COOPERSTOWN-BINGHAMTON AND TOWANDA BY 6-7Z AND ACROSS AVP-MSV BY
8-9Z. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOW SQUALL TIED
TO THIS FRONT INITIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAP INTO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
HOWEVER AS THIS SNOW SQUALL MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAKES IT IS
PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW-LEVELS BECOME LESS UNSTABLE AWAY
FROM LAKE MOISTURE. HENCE WE SEE A SNOW SQUALL REACHING ROUGHLY
FROM SYR-PEO BY ABOUT 3-5Z...UCA- ELM BY 4-6Z AND THE COOPERSTOWN
TO BGM AND TOWANDA BY 6-8Z OR SO. BY THIS TIME IT SHOULD WEAKEN
AND NOT BE SIGNIFICANT AS IT TRAVELS FARTHER S AND E. AFTER THIS
SQUALL PASSES, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL FILL
INTO DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A 300 DEGREE FLOW PATTERN. ALL
THE CLOUDS WILL BE COLDER THAN THE MAXIMUM GROWTH REGIME FOR ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE VERY DRY. THIS WILL PRECLUDE A
MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR ONONDAGA...SOUTHERN
CAYUGA...MADISON...CHENANGO AND CORTLAND COUNTIES. WE SEE MAYBE 2
TO 6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM LATER THIS EVENING TO
SATURDAY EVENING. HENCE NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NEEDED. WITH
THE WINDS WE DO ALSO HAVING BLOWING SNOW IN GRIDS THROUGH SAT.

COLD AIR PLUNGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE MINUS 20S C SATURDAY AND BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND -29C OR SO BY 6Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS
PLUMMET INTO THE DANGEROUS CATEGORY WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
SEEING CHILLS DOWN BELOW MINUS 40 SAT NGT/EARLY SUN. HENCE KEPT
WIND CHILL WARNINGS GOING ALL ZONES. THIS COLD AIR MASS COULD
RIVAL SOME OF THE COLDEST ONES LAST YEAR FOR THE UPPER MOHAWK TO
THE CATSKILLS. FARTHER WEST A 300 DEGREE L0W-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL
WARM THE SURFACE LATER SOME FROM LAKE ONTARIO. SO WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING SUCH EXTREME COLD FARTHER WEST INTO THE FINGER LAKES,
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA. IT STILL WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN THESE
AREAS AND LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 TO 15 BELOW LOCALLY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 15 BELOW TO 35 BELOW
WITH THE COLDEST VALUES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THESE AREAS.
IN FACT THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS
ARCTIC OUTBREAK SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE WELL MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND COVERS THE REGION BY SUN
PM. THIS WILL DROP THE WIND SPEEDS AND WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL MIGRATE
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THICKER
CLOUD COVER REACHES ROUGHLY FROM BUF-MSV BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MUCH OF NE PA AND
SC NY/FINGER LAKES FROM RADIATING TO BELOW ZERO SUN NGT. WE SEE
BELOW ZERO READINGS...POSSIBLY TO BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO FROM THE
UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN DELAWARE AND
OTSEGO/MADISON AND CHENANGO COUNTIES BY MONDAY AM.

FOR MONDAY WE WILL SEE A SHOT OF WAA LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS
THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN BELOW 0C. SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE
VERY DRY AND THIS FIRST WAVE DOES NOT HAVE THAT MUCH MOISTURE
REACHING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WE ONLY SEE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. MODEL QPF IS BELOW .1 INCHES MONDAY SO NOT SEEING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT BEFORE 00Z TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
LARGE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN MOST MODELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR STORM TRACK
AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPES.

12Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS...AS WELL AS THE
WESTERNMOST WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK
STAYING INLAND AND HEADING DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO WINTRY
MIX/ICE...TO PLAIN RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A LOT OF IT. BEING
PRECEDED BY OUR ARCTIC WEEKEND WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN WOULD
DIRECTLY RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES IF THIS CAME
TO PASS. 12Z GFS IS FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK...AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN ECMWF WITH ITS INLAND TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD POSE
BOTH A HEAVY SNOW THREAT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81/ AND A
POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS. AND FINALLY...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 18Z GFS MODELS HAVE
LESS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND THUS A
WEAKER FASTER SURFACE LOW WITH FURTHER EAST TRACK /LONG ISLAND/.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE US MAINLY SNOW...HEAVIEST SOUTHEAST AND
PERHAPS LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW...THAT
IS...MOSTLY MISSING THE REGION. ALSO THE 18Z GFS...BEING WEAKER
WITH THE MON NGT-TUE LOW...GIVES ENERGY TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW THEN. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
QUIETER BUT A WARM FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS WELL AS MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

KEY POINTS AT THIS JUNCTURE ARE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM OF SOME FORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...AND THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS THE DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SNOW SQUALLS THROUGH THE NY TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING TEMPORARY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF 1 MILE OR
LESS. THEREAFTER, A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL SET UP NEAR
SYR/RME/ITH. THE SNOW WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
KNOTS, ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW, FURTHER
RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT INTO SUN...RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KSYR
AND KITH, WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KELM AND KBGM.
KRME AND KAVP SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR.

MON...VFR.

MON NGT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/MDP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 122337
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
637 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MAKE BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL BRING
IN BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE WELL BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER SOME WARMING MONDAY...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT OUR REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WELL NORTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THERE WAS A WIDE AREA OF
LIGHT ECHOES COVERING MOST OF PA INTO SOUTHERN NY AT THIS TIME
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL SHORT WAVE RIPPLING NORTHEAST ACROSS PA
AND NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THESE ECHOES WERE VIRGA
SINCE IT WAS SO DRY BELOW. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME FLURRIES MAINLY TO NORTHEAST PA AND THE CATSKILLS EARLY
THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS PROJECTED TO
REACH THE FINGER LAKES TO UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY BY 3-5Z AND FROM
COOPERSTOWN-BINGHAMTON AND TOWANDA BY 6-7Z AND ACROSS AVP-MSV BY
8-9Z. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOW SQUALL TIED
TO THIS FRONT INITIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAP INTO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
HOWEVER AS THIS SNOW SQUALL MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAKES IT IS
PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW-LEVELS BECOME LESS UNSTABLE AWAY
FROM LAKE MOISTURE. HENCE WE SEE A SNOW SQUALL REACHING ROUGHLY
FROM SYR-PEO BY ABOUT 3-5Z...UCA- ELM BY 4-6Z AND THE COOPERSTOWN
TO BGM AND TOWANDA BY 6-8Z OR SO. BY THIS TIME IT SHOULD WEAKEN
AND NOT BE SIGNIFICANT AS IT TRAVELS FARTHER S AND E. AFTER THIS
SQUALL PASSES, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL FILL
INTO DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A 300 DEGREE FLOW PATTERN. ALL
THE CLOUDS WILL BE COLDER THAN THE MAXIMUM GROWTH REGIME FOR ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE VERY DRY. THIS WILL PRECLUDE A
MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR ONONDAGA...SOUTHERN
CAYUGA...MADISON...CHENANGO AND CORTLAND COUNTIES. WE SEE MAYBE 2
TO 6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM LATER THIS EVENING TO
SATURDAY EVENING. HENCE NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NEEDED. WITH
THE WINDS WE DO ALSO HAVING BLOWING SNOW IN GRIDS THROUGH SAT.

COLD AIR PLUNGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE MINUS 20S C SATURDAY AND BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND -29C OR SO BY 6Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS
PLUMMET INTO THE DANGEROUS CATEGORY WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
SEEING CHILLS DOWN BELOW MINUS 40 SAT NGT/EARLY SUN. HENCE KEPT
WIND CHILL WARNINGS GOING ALL ZONES. THIS COLD AIR MASS COULD
RIVAL SOME OF THE COLDEST ONES LAST YEAR FOR THE UPPER MOHAWK TO
THE CATSKILLS. FARTHER WEST A 300 DEGREE L0W-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL
WARM THE SURFACE LATER SOME FROM LAKE ONTARIO. SO WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING SUCH EXTREME COLD FARTHER WEST INTO THE FINGER LAKES,
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA. IT STILL WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN THESE
AREAS AND LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 TO 15 BELOW LOCALLY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 15 BELOW TO 35 BELOW
WITH THE COLDEST VALUES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THESE AREAS.
IN FACT THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS
ARCTIC OUTBREAK SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE WELL MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND COVERS THE REGION BY SUN
PM. THIS WILL DROP THE WIND SPEEDS AND WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL MIGRATE
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THICKER
CLOUD COVER REACHES ROUGHLY FROM BUF-MSV BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MUCH OF NE PA AND
SC NY/FINGER LAKES FROM RADIATING TO BELOW ZERO SUN NGT. WE SEE
BELOW ZERO READINGS...POSSIBLY TO BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO FROM THE
UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN DELAWARE AND
OTSEGO/MADISON AND CHENANGO COUNTIES BY MONDAY AM.

FOR MONDAY WE WILL SEE A SHOT OF WAA LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS
THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN BELOW 0C. SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE
VERY DRY AND THIS FIRST WAVE DOES NOT HAVE THAT MUCH MOISTURE
REACHING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WE ONLY SEE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. MODEL QPF IS BELOW .1 INCHES MONDAY SO NOT SEEING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT BEFORE 00Z TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
LARGE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN MOST MODELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR STORM TRACK
AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPES.

12Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS...AS WELL AS THE
WESTERNMOST WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK
STAYING INLAND AND HEADING DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO WINTRY
MIX/ICE...TO PLAIN RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A LOT OF IT. BEING
PRECEDED BY OUR ARCTIC WEEKEND WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN WOULD
DIRECTLY RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES IF THIS CAME
TO PASS. 12Z GFS IS FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK...AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN ECMWF WITH ITS INLAND TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD POSE
BOTH A HEAVY SNOW THREAT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81/ AND A
POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS. AND FINALLY...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 18Z GFS MODELS HAVE
LESS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND THUS A
WEAKER FASTER SURFACE LOW WITH FURTHER EAST TRACK /LONG ISLAND/.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE US MAINLY SNOW...HEAVIEST SOUTHEAST AND
PERHAPS LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW...THAT
IS...MOSTLY MISSING THE REGION. ALSO THE 18Z GFS...BEING WEAKER
WITH THE MON NGT-TUE LOW...GIVES ENERGY TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW THEN. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
QUIETER BUT A WARM FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS WELL AS MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

KEY POINTS AT THIS JUNCTURE ARE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM OF SOME FORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...AND THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS THE DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SNOW SQUALLS THROUGH THE NY TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING TEMPORARY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF 1 MILE OR
LESS. THEREAFTER, A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL SET UP NEAR
SYR/RME/ITH. THE SNOW WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
KNOTS, ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW, FURTHER
RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT INTO SUN...RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KSYR
AND KITH, WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KELM AND KBGM.
KRME AND KAVP SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR.

MON...VFR.

MON NGT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/MDP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 122337
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
637 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MAKE BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL BRING
IN BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE WELL BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER SOME WARMING MONDAY...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT OUR REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WELL NORTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THERE WAS A WIDE AREA OF
LIGHT ECHOES COVERING MOST OF PA INTO SOUTHERN NY AT THIS TIME
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL SHORT WAVE RIPPLING NORTHEAST ACROSS PA
AND NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THESE ECHOES WERE VIRGA
SINCE IT WAS SO DRY BELOW. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME FLURRIES MAINLY TO NORTHEAST PA AND THE CATSKILLS EARLY
THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS PROJECTED TO
REACH THE FINGER LAKES TO UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY BY 3-5Z AND FROM
COOPERSTOWN-BINGHAMTON AND TOWANDA BY 6-7Z AND ACROSS AVP-MSV BY
8-9Z. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOW SQUALL TIED
TO THIS FRONT INITIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAP INTO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
HOWEVER AS THIS SNOW SQUALL MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAKES IT IS
PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW-LEVELS BECOME LESS UNSTABLE AWAY
FROM LAKE MOISTURE. HENCE WE SEE A SNOW SQUALL REACHING ROUGHLY
FROM SYR-PEO BY ABOUT 3-5Z...UCA- ELM BY 4-6Z AND THE COOPERSTOWN
TO BGM AND TOWANDA BY 6-8Z OR SO. BY THIS TIME IT SHOULD WEAKEN
AND NOT BE SIGNIFICANT AS IT TRAVELS FARTHER S AND E. AFTER THIS
SQUALL PASSES, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL FILL
INTO DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A 300 DEGREE FLOW PATTERN. ALL
THE CLOUDS WILL BE COLDER THAN THE MAXIMUM GROWTH REGIME FOR ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE VERY DRY. THIS WILL PRECLUDE A
MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR ONONDAGA...SOUTHERN
CAYUGA...MADISON...CHENANGO AND CORTLAND COUNTIES. WE SEE MAYBE 2
TO 6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM LATER THIS EVENING TO
SATURDAY EVENING. HENCE NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NEEDED. WITH
THE WINDS WE DO ALSO HAVING BLOWING SNOW IN GRIDS THROUGH SAT.

COLD AIR PLUNGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE MINUS 20S C SATURDAY AND BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND -29C OR SO BY 6Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS
PLUMMET INTO THE DANGEROUS CATEGORY WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
SEEING CHILLS DOWN BELOW MINUS 40 SAT NGT/EARLY SUN. HENCE KEPT
WIND CHILL WARNINGS GOING ALL ZONES. THIS COLD AIR MASS COULD
RIVAL SOME OF THE COLDEST ONES LAST YEAR FOR THE UPPER MOHAWK TO
THE CATSKILLS. FARTHER WEST A 300 DEGREE L0W-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL
WARM THE SURFACE LATER SOME FROM LAKE ONTARIO. SO WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING SUCH EXTREME COLD FARTHER WEST INTO THE FINGER LAKES,
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA. IT STILL WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN THESE
AREAS AND LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 TO 15 BELOW LOCALLY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 15 BELOW TO 35 BELOW
WITH THE COLDEST VALUES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THESE AREAS.
IN FACT THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS
ARCTIC OUTBREAK SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE WELL MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND COVERS THE REGION BY SUN
PM. THIS WILL DROP THE WIND SPEEDS AND WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL MIGRATE
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THICKER
CLOUD COVER REACHES ROUGHLY FROM BUF-MSV BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MUCH OF NE PA AND
SC NY/FINGER LAKES FROM RADIATING TO BELOW ZERO SUN NGT. WE SEE
BELOW ZERO READINGS...POSSIBLY TO BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO FROM THE
UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN DELAWARE AND
OTSEGO/MADISON AND CHENANGO COUNTIES BY MONDAY AM.

FOR MONDAY WE WILL SEE A SHOT OF WAA LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS
THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN BELOW 0C. SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE
VERY DRY AND THIS FIRST WAVE DOES NOT HAVE THAT MUCH MOISTURE
REACHING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WE ONLY SEE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. MODEL QPF IS BELOW .1 INCHES MONDAY SO NOT SEEING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT BEFORE 00Z TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
LARGE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN MOST MODELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR STORM TRACK
AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPES.

12Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS...AS WELL AS THE
WESTERNMOST WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK
STAYING INLAND AND HEADING DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO WINTRY
MIX/ICE...TO PLAIN RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A LOT OF IT. BEING
PRECEDED BY OUR ARCTIC WEEKEND WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN WOULD
DIRECTLY RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES IF THIS CAME
TO PASS. 12Z GFS IS FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK...AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN ECMWF WITH ITS INLAND TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD POSE
BOTH A HEAVY SNOW THREAT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81/ AND A
POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS. AND FINALLY...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 18Z GFS MODELS HAVE
LESS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND THUS A
WEAKER FASTER SURFACE LOW WITH FURTHER EAST TRACK /LONG ISLAND/.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE US MAINLY SNOW...HEAVIEST SOUTHEAST AND
PERHAPS LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW...THAT
IS...MOSTLY MISSING THE REGION. ALSO THE 18Z GFS...BEING WEAKER
WITH THE MON NGT-TUE LOW...GIVES ENERGY TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW THEN. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
QUIETER BUT A WARM FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS WELL AS MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

KEY POINTS AT THIS JUNCTURE ARE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM OF SOME FORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...AND THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS THE DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SNOW SQUALLS THROUGH THE NY TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING TEMPORARY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF 1 MILE OR
LESS. THEREAFTER, A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL SET UP NEAR
SYR/RME/ITH. THE SNOW WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
KNOTS, ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW, FURTHER
RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT INTO SUN...RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KSYR
AND KITH, WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KELM AND KBGM.
KRME AND KAVP SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR.

MON...VFR.

MON NGT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/MDP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 122320
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
620 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MAKE BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL BRING
IN BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE WELL BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER SOME WARMING MONDAY...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT OUR REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WELL NORTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THERE WAS A WIDE AREA OF
LIGHT ECHOES COVERING MOST OF PA INTO SOUTHERN NY AT THIS TIME
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL SHORT WAVE RIPPLING NORTHEAST ACROSS PA
AND NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THESE ECHOES WERE VIRGA
SINCE IT WAS SO DRY BELOW. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME FLURRIES MAINLY TO NORTHEAST PA AND THE CATSKILLS EARLY
THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS PROJECTED TO
REACH THE FINGER LAKES TO UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY BY 3-5Z AND FROM
COOPERSTOWN-BINGHAMTON AND TOWANDA BY 6-7Z AND ACROSS AVP-MSV BY
8-9Z. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOW SQUALL TIED
TO THIS FRONT INITIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAP INTO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
HOWEVER AS THIS SNOW SQUALL MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAKES IT IS
PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW-LEVELS BECOME LESS UNSTABLE AWAY
FROM LAKE MOISTURE. HENCE WE SEE A SNOW SQUALL REACHING ROUGHLY
FROM SYR-PEO BY ABOUT 3-5Z...UCA- ELM BY 4-6Z AND THE COOPERSTOWN
TO BGM AND TOWANDA BY 6-8Z OR SO. BY THIS TIME IT SHOULD WEAKEN
AND NOT BE SIGNIFICANT AS IT TRAVELS FARTHER S AND E. AFTER THIS
SQUALL PASSES, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL FILL
INTO DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A 300 DEGREE FLOW PATTERN. ALL
THE CLOUDS WILL BE COLDER THAN THE MAXIMUM GROWTH REGIME FOR ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE VERY DRY. THIS WILL PRECLUDE A
MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR ONONDAGA...SOUTHERN
CAYUGA...MADISON...CHENANGO AND CORTLAND COUNTIES. WE SEE MAYBE 2
TO 6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM LATER THIS EVENING TO
SATURDAY EVENING. HENCE NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NEEDED. WITH
THE WINDS WE DO ALSO HAVING BLOWING SNOW IN GRIDS THROUGH SAT.

COLD AIR PLUNGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE MINUS 20S C SATURDAY AND BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND -29C OR SO BY 6Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS
PLUMMET INTO THE DANGEROUS CATEGORY WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
SEEING CHILLS DOWN BELOW MINUS 40 SAT NGT/EARLY SUN. HENCE KEPT
WIND CHILL WARNINGS GOING ALL ZONES. THIS COLD AIR MASS COULD
RIVAL SOME OF THE COLDEST ONES LAST YEAR FOR THE UPPER MOHAWK TO
THE CATSKILLS. FARTHER WEST A 300 DEGREE L0W-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL
WARM THE SURFACE LATER SOME FROM LAKE ONTARIO. SO WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING SUCH EXTREME COLD FARTHER WEST INTO THE FINGER LAKES,
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA. IT STILL WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN THESE
AREAS AND LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 TO 15 BELOW LOCALLY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 15 BELOW TO 35 BELOW
WITH THE COLDEST VALUES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THESE AREAS.
IN FACT THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS
ARCTIC OUTBREAK SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE WELL MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND COVERS THE REGION BY SUN
PM. THIS WILL DROP THE WIND SPEEDS AND WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL MIGRATE
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THICKER
CLOUD COVER REACHES ROUGHLY FROM BUF-MSV BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MUCH OF NE PA AND
SC NY/FINGER LAKES FROM RADIATING TO BELOW ZERO SUN NGT. WE SEE
BELOW ZERO READINGS...POSSIBLY TO BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO FROM THE
UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN DELAWARE AND
OTSEGO/MADISON AND CHENANGO COUNTIES BY MONDAY AM.

FOR MONDAY WE WILL SEE A SHOT OF WAA LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS
THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN BELOW 0C. SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE
VERY DRY AND THIS FIRST WAVE DOES NOT HAVE THAT MUCH MOISTURE
REACHING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WE ONLY SEE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. MODEL QPF IS BELOW .1 INCHES MONDAY SO NOT SEEING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT BEFORE 00Z TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
LARGE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN MOST MODELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR STORM TRACK
AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPES.

12Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS...AS WELL AS THE
WESTERNMOST WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK
STAYING INLAND AND HEADING DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO WINTRY
MIX/ICE...TO PLAIN RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A LOT OF IT. BEING
PRECEDED BY OUR ARCTIC WEEKEND WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN WOULD
DIRECTLY RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES IF THIS CAME
TO PASS. 12Z GFS IS FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK...AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN ECMWF WITH ITS INLAND TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD POSE
BOTH A HEAVY SNOW THREAT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81/ AND A
POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS. AND FINALLY...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 18Z GFS MODELS HAVE
LESS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND THUS A
WEAKER FASTER SURFACE LOW WITH FURTHER EAST TRACK /LONG ISLAND/.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE US MAINLY SNOW...HEAVIEST SOUTHEAST AND
PERHAPS LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW...THAT
IS...MOSTLY MISSING THE REGION. ALSO THE 18Z GFS...BEING WEAKER
WITH THE MON NGT-TUE LOW...GIVES ENERGY TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW THEN. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
QUIETER BUT A WARM FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS WELL AS MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

KEY POINTS AT THIS JUNCTURE ARE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM OF SOME FORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...AND THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS THE DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING,
PRODUCING BRIEF, TRANSIENT MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS, PRIMARILY AT
KSYR AND KRME.

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION, SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT (AFTER
03-05Z), WITH IFR/BELOW ALT MIN RESTRICTIONS MORE PROBABLE AT THIS
POINT.

ON SATURDAY, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY, WITH
PERSISTENT 25-35 KT GUSTS AREA-WIDE. KSYR AND KITH ARE LIKELY TO
SEE THE MOST PERSISTENT IFR/BELOW ALT MIN RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS, WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ALSO LIKELY AT KRME, KBGM,
AND KELM. KAVP SHOULD HAVE VFR MUCH OF THE TIME.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT INTO SUN...RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KSYR
AND KITH, WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KELM AND KBGM.
KRME AND KAVP SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR.

MON...VFR.

MON NGT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/MDP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MLJ





000
FXUS61 KBGM 122007
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
307 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF, HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE AS AN ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH BITTERLY COLD AIR AND
WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND END THE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL THREAT.
BY MONDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THIS STORM REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
SO IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL IF OUR REGION SEES HEAVY SNOW, MIXED
PRECIPITATION OR EVEN JUST PLAIN RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWS HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WELL NORTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THERE WAS A WIDE AREA OF
LIGHT ECHOES COVERING MOST OF PA INTO SOUTHERN NY AT THIS TIME
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL SHORT WAVE RIPPLING NORTHEAST ACROSS PA
AND NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THESE ECHOES WERE VIRGA
SINCE IT WAS SO DRY BELOW. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME FLURRIES MAINLY TO NORTHEAST PA AND THE CATSKILLS EARLY
THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS PROJECTED TO
REACH THE FINGER LAKES TO UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY BY 3-5Z AND FROM
COOPERSTOWN-BINGHAMTON AND TOWANDA BY 6-7Z AND ACROSS AVP-MSV BY
8-9Z. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOW SQUALL TIED
TO THIS FRONT INITIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAP INTO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
HOWEVER AS THIS SNOW SQUALL MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAKES IT IS
PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW-LEVELS BECOME LESS UNSTABLE AWAY
FROM LAKE MOISTURE. HENCE WE SEE A SNOW SQUALL REACHING ROUGHLY
FROM SYR-PEO BY ABOUT 3-5Z...UCA- ELM BY 4-6Z AND THE COOPERSTOWN
TO BGM AND TOWANDA BY 6-8Z OR SO. BY THIS TIME IT SHOULD WEAKEN
AND NOT BE SIGNIFICANT AS IT TRAVELS FARTHER S AND E. AFTER THIS
SQUALL PASSES, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL FILL
INTO DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A 300 DEGREE FLOW PATTERN. ALL
THE CLOUDS WILL BE COLDER THAN THE MAXIMUM GROWTH REGIME FOR ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE VERY DRY. THIS WILL PRECLUDE A
MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR ONONDAGA...SOUTHERN
CAYUGA...MADISON...CHENANGO AND CORTLAND COUNTIES. WE SEE MAYBE 2
TO 6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM LATER THIS EVENING TO
SATURDAY EVENING. HENCE NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NEEDED. WITH
THE WINDS WE DO ALSO HAVING BLOWING SNOW IN GRIDS THROUGH SAT.

COLD AIR PLUNGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE MINUS 20S C SATURDAY AND BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND -29C OR SO BY 6Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS
PLUMMET INTO THE DANGEROUS CATEGORY WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
SEEING CHILLS DOWN BELOW MINUS 40 SAT NGT/EARLY SUN. HENCE KEPT
WIND CHILL WARNINGS GOING ALL ZONES. THIS COLD AIR MASS COULD
RIVAL SOME OF THE COLDEST ONES LAST YEAR FOR THE UPPER MOHAWK TO
THE CATSKILLS. FARTHER WEST A 300 DEGREE L0W-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL
WARM THE SURFACE LATER SOME FROM LAKE ONTARIO. SO WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING SUCH EXTREME COLD FARTHER WEST INTO THE FINGER LAKES,
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA. IT STILL WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN THESE
AREAS AND LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 TO 15 BELOW LOCALLY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 15 BELOW TO 35 BELOW
WITH THE COLDEST VALUES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THESE AREAS.
IN FACT THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS
ARCTIC OUTBREAK SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE WELL MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND COVERS THE REGION BY SUN
PM. THIS WILL DROP THE WIND SPEEDS AND WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL MIGRATE
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THICKER
CLOUD COVER REACHES ROUGHLY FROM BUF-MSV BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS CLOUD
COVER ANE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MUCH OF NE PA AND
SC NY/FINGER LAKES FROM RADIATING TO BELOW ZERO SUN NGT. WE SEE
BELOW ZERO READINGS...POSSIBLY TO BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO FROM THE
UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN DELAWARE AND
OTSEGO/MADISON AND CHENANGO COUNTIES BY MONDAY AM.

FOR MONDAY WE WILL SEE A SHOT OF WAA LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS
THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN BELOW 0C. SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE
VERY DRY AND THIS FIRST WAVE DOES NOT HAVE THAT MUCH MOISTURE
REACHING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WE ONLY SEE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. MODEL QPF IS BELOW .1 INCHES MONDAY SO NOT SEEING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT BEFORE 00Z TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING,
PRODUCING BRIEF, TRANSIENT MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS, PRIMARILY AT
KSYR AND KRME.

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION, SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT (AFTER
03-05Z), WITH IFR/BELOW ALT MIN RESTRICTIONS MORE PROBABLE AT THIS
POINT.

ON SATURDAY, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY, WITH
PERSISTENT 25-35 KT GUSTS AREA-WIDE. KSYR AND KITH ARE LIKELY TO
SEE THE MOST PERSISTENT IFR/BELOW ALT MIN RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS, WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ALSO LIKELY AT KRME, KBGM,
AND KELM. KAVP SHOULD HAVE VFR MUCH OF THE TIME.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT INTO SUN...RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KSYR
AND KITH, WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KELM AND KBGM.
KRME AND KAVP SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR.

MON...VFR.

MON NGT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ





000
FXUS61 KBGM 121752
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1252 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING. BRIEF, HEAVIER SNOW
SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH BITTERLY COLD AIR AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE
BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
WE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES, CLOUDS AND WINDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS MOST OF
THE ACTION WILL BE HAPPENING AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. WE WILL
REEVALUATE POTENTIAL FOR EVENING SNOW SQUALLS AND REFINE TIMING,
POTENTIALLY LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST A FEW
DEGREES AND ALSO POTENTIALLY UP WIND GUSTS WHEN ALL 12Z GUIDANCE
IS IN. NOT PLANNING ON A WIND ADVISORY JUST YET. 12Z NAM HAS
PRESSURE RISES OF AROUND 10 MB/6 HOURS IN NE PA WHICH IS BELOW
WHAT WE USUALLY EXPECT FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS (15 MB/6
HOURS). 12Z MET GUIDANCE ONLY HAS A 13 KNOT WIND MAXIMUM FOR
SATURDAY AT KAVP. METMPO HAS UP TO 17 KNOTS SATURDAY. WE USUALLY
SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WHEN OUR GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S KNOTS AS A RULE OF THUMB. IN ADDITION, VERY COLD AIR MASSES
LIKELY THIS ONE NEED A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR HIGH WINDS
DUE TO THE HIGHER DENSITY OF THE COLD AIR. HOWEVER, DOWNSLOPE
AREAS IN EASTERN PA COULD SEE SOME SORT OF KADABATIC WIND SET-UP
AS THE VERY COLD, DENSE AIR FLOWS DOWN FROM THE POCONOS LEADING TO
STRONGER WINDS THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THIS COMMONLY OCCURS IN PA
AND EASTERN NY. BUT OUR COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST PA ARE MOSTLY
UPSLOPE.

430 AM UPDATE...

ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING
NORTH OF OUR AREA. WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT, MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BITTER COLD
AIR, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS ON ITS ARRIVAL. THE
LEADING EDGE TO THIS BITTER AIR IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z. SNOW SQUALLS STILL APPEAR
LIKELY. MODEL REFLECTIVITY`S AND QPF MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING SNOW
POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE HIGH SNOW RATIOS (FLUFF FACTOR). DESPITE
LITTLE QPF, CONTINUED A GENERAL COATING TO 2 INCHES, WITH AMOUNTS
MORE THAN 3 INCHES POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NY. WITH SNOW RATES OF 1" OR
MORE PER HOUR POSSIBLE, SNOW ACCUMS MAY COME IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FOR
A TIME. WE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN OUR HWO AND OUR
ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE WHICH CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/BGM
UNDER THE WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING ICON AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...

AFTER LAST WINTER, SURPRISED TO SEE A DAY RIVAL WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED LAST YEAR SO SOON, IF EVEN FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
A WELL ADVERTISED SHOT OF DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
TUMBLE FROM A MIDNIGHT HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS, AND FALL
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MANY AREAS IN
NY STATE WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -15 AND
-30 DURING THE DAY. UPGRADED OUR WIND CHILL WATCH TO A WARNING
EVERYWHERE. THE TIMING WAS BUMPED UP IN NORTHERN PA TO 11Z AS WE
SEE SOME LOCATIONS APPROACH THE LOWER END OF THE WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA (-15 TO -25) BY DAYBREAK. THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS
WILL OCCUR FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, OR
GENERALLY IN THE -20 TO -40 RANGE! SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING
-30 ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. WE CONTINUE TO STRESS THIS IS
A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND BE
SURE TO HAVE EXTRA BLANKETS, HATS, GLOVES IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE
OF A BREAKDOWN. IN ADDITION PREPARATIONS TO YOUR HOME TO PREVENT
FROZEN PIPES SHOULD BE MADE TODAY.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ON A 310 TO 330 FLOW. IT WILL BE MORE OF
A SPRAY OF FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS, WITH THE AIR BEING SO
COLD AND DRY THAT IT WON`T SUPPORT MORE THAN LIGHT COATINGS OR
DUSTING`S OF SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. I DID CONTINUE TO MENTION
BLOWING SNOW AS STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE FLUFF FACTOR TO
BLOW THE SNOW AROUND QUITE A BIT. LAKE SNOWS DIMINISH SUNDAY AS
TEMPS HOLD MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING,
PRODUCING BRIEF, TRANSIENT MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS, PRIMARILY AT
KSYR AND KRME.

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION, SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT (AFTER
03-05Z), WITH IFR/BELOW ALT MIN RESTRICTIONS MORE PROBABLE AT THIS
POINT.

ON SATURDAY, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY, WITH
PERSISTENT 25-35 KT GUSTS AREA-WIDE. KSYR AND KITH ARE LIKELY TO
SEE THE MOST PERSISTENT IFR/BELOW ALT MIN RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS, WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ALSO LIKELY AT KRME, KBGM,
AND KELM. KAVP SHOULD HAVE VFR MUCH OF THE TIME.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT INTO SUN...RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KSYR
AND KITH, WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KELM AND KBGM.
KRME AND KAVP SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR.

MON...VFR.

MON NGT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MLJ





000
FXUS61 KBGM 121752
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1252 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING. BRIEF, HEAVIER SNOW
SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH BITTERLY COLD AIR AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE
BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
WE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES, CLOUDS AND WINDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS MOST OF
THE ACTION WILL BE HAPPENING AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. WE WILL
REEVALUATE POTENTIAL FOR EVENING SNOW SQUALLS AND REFINE TIMING,
POTENTIALLY LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST A FEW
DEGREES AND ALSO POTENTIALLY UP WIND GUSTS WHEN ALL 12Z GUIDANCE
IS IN. NOT PLANNING ON A WIND ADVISORY JUST YET. 12Z NAM HAS
PRESSURE RISES OF AROUND 10 MB/6 HOURS IN NE PA WHICH IS BELOW
WHAT WE USUALLY EXPECT FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS (15 MB/6
HOURS). 12Z MET GUIDANCE ONLY HAS A 13 KNOT WIND MAXIMUM FOR
SATURDAY AT KAVP. METMPO HAS UP TO 17 KNOTS SATURDAY. WE USUALLY
SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WHEN OUR GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S KNOTS AS A RULE OF THUMB. IN ADDITION, VERY COLD AIR MASSES
LIKELY THIS ONE NEED A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR HIGH WINDS
DUE TO THE HIGHER DENSITY OF THE COLD AIR. HOWEVER, DOWNSLOPE
AREAS IN EASTERN PA COULD SEE SOME SORT OF KADABATIC WIND SET-UP
AS THE VERY COLD, DENSE AIR FLOWS DOWN FROM THE POCONOS LEADING TO
STRONGER WINDS THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THIS COMMONLY OCCURS IN PA
AND EASTERN NY. BUT OUR COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST PA ARE MOSTLY
UPSLOPE.

430 AM UPDATE...

ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING
NORTH OF OUR AREA. WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT, MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BITTER COLD
AIR, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS ON ITS ARRIVAL. THE
LEADING EDGE TO THIS BITTER AIR IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z. SNOW SQUALLS STILL APPEAR
LIKELY. MODEL REFLECTIVITY`S AND QPF MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING SNOW
POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE HIGH SNOW RATIOS (FLUFF FACTOR). DESPITE
LITTLE QPF, CONTINUED A GENERAL COATING TO 2 INCHES, WITH AMOUNTS
MORE THAN 3 INCHES POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NY. WITH SNOW RATES OF 1" OR
MORE PER HOUR POSSIBLE, SNOW ACCUMS MAY COME IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FOR
A TIME. WE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN OUR HWO AND OUR
ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE WHICH CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/BGM
UNDER THE WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING ICON AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...

AFTER LAST WINTER, SURPRISED TO SEE A DAY RIVAL WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED LAST YEAR SO SOON, IF EVEN FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
A WELL ADVERTISED SHOT OF DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
TUMBLE FROM A MIDNIGHT HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS, AND FALL
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MANY AREAS IN
NY STATE WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -15 AND
-30 DURING THE DAY. UPGRADED OUR WIND CHILL WATCH TO A WARNING
EVERYWHERE. THE TIMING WAS BUMPED UP IN NORTHERN PA TO 11Z AS WE
SEE SOME LOCATIONS APPROACH THE LOWER END OF THE WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA (-15 TO -25) BY DAYBREAK. THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS
WILL OCCUR FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, OR
GENERALLY IN THE -20 TO -40 RANGE! SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING
-30 ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. WE CONTINUE TO STRESS THIS IS
A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND BE
SURE TO HAVE EXTRA BLANKETS, HATS, GLOVES IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE
OF A BREAKDOWN. IN ADDITION PREPARATIONS TO YOUR HOME TO PREVENT
FROZEN PIPES SHOULD BE MADE TODAY.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ON A 310 TO 330 FLOW. IT WILL BE MORE OF
A SPRAY OF FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS, WITH THE AIR BEING SO
COLD AND DRY THAT IT WON`T SUPPORT MORE THAN LIGHT COATINGS OR
DUSTING`S OF SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. I DID CONTINUE TO MENTION
BLOWING SNOW AS STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE FLUFF FACTOR TO
BLOW THE SNOW AROUND QUITE A BIT. LAKE SNOWS DIMINISH SUNDAY AS
TEMPS HOLD MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING,
PRODUCING BRIEF, TRANSIENT MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS, PRIMARILY AT
KSYR AND KRME.

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION, SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT (AFTER
03-05Z), WITH IFR/BELOW ALT MIN RESTRICTIONS MORE PROBABLE AT THIS
POINT.

ON SATURDAY, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY, WITH
PERSISTENT 25-35 KT GUSTS AREA-WIDE. KSYR AND KITH ARE LIKELY TO
SEE THE MOST PERSISTENT IFR/BELOW ALT MIN RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS, WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ALSO LIKELY AT KRME, KBGM,
AND KELM. KAVP SHOULD HAVE VFR MUCH OF THE TIME.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT INTO SUN...RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KSYR
AND KITH, WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KELM AND KBGM.
KRME AND KAVP SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR.

MON...VFR.

MON NGT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBGM 121752
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1252 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING. BRIEF, HEAVIER SNOW
SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH BITTERLY COLD AIR AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE
BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
WE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES, CLOUDS AND WINDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS MOST OF
THE ACTION WILL BE HAPPENING AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. WE WILL
REEVALUATE POTENTIAL FOR EVENING SNOW SQUALLS AND REFINE TIMING,
POTENTIALLY LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST A FEW
DEGREES AND ALSO POTENTIALLY UP WIND GUSTS WHEN ALL 12Z GUIDANCE
IS IN. NOT PLANNING ON A WIND ADVISORY JUST YET. 12Z NAM HAS
PRESSURE RISES OF AROUND 10 MB/6 HOURS IN NE PA WHICH IS BELOW
WHAT WE USUALLY EXPECT FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS (15 MB/6
HOURS). 12Z MET GUIDANCE ONLY HAS A 13 KNOT WIND MAXIMUM FOR
SATURDAY AT KAVP. METMPO HAS UP TO 17 KNOTS SATURDAY. WE USUALLY
SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WHEN OUR GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S KNOTS AS A RULE OF THUMB. IN ADDITION, VERY COLD AIR MASSES
LIKELY THIS ONE NEED A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR HIGH WINDS
DUE TO THE HIGHER DENSITY OF THE COLD AIR. HOWEVER, DOWNSLOPE
AREAS IN EASTERN PA COULD SEE SOME SORT OF KADABATIC WIND SET-UP
AS THE VERY COLD, DENSE AIR FLOWS DOWN FROM THE POCONOS LEADING TO
STRONGER WINDS THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THIS COMMONLY OCCURS IN PA
AND EASTERN NY. BUT OUR COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST PA ARE MOSTLY
UPSLOPE.

430 AM UPDATE...

ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING
NORTH OF OUR AREA. WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT, MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BITTER COLD
AIR, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS ON ITS ARRIVAL. THE
LEADING EDGE TO THIS BITTER AIR IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z. SNOW SQUALLS STILL APPEAR
LIKELY. MODEL REFLECTIVITY`S AND QPF MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING SNOW
POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE HIGH SNOW RATIOS (FLUFF FACTOR). DESPITE
LITTLE QPF, CONTINUED A GENERAL COATING TO 2 INCHES, WITH AMOUNTS
MORE THAN 3 INCHES POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NY. WITH SNOW RATES OF 1" OR
MORE PER HOUR POSSIBLE, SNOW ACCUMS MAY COME IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FOR
A TIME. WE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN OUR HWO AND OUR
ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE WHICH CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/BGM
UNDER THE WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING ICON AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...

AFTER LAST WINTER, SURPRISED TO SEE A DAY RIVAL WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED LAST YEAR SO SOON, IF EVEN FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
A WELL ADVERTISED SHOT OF DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
TUMBLE FROM A MIDNIGHT HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS, AND FALL
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MANY AREAS IN
NY STATE WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -15 AND
-30 DURING THE DAY. UPGRADED OUR WIND CHILL WATCH TO A WARNING
EVERYWHERE. THE TIMING WAS BUMPED UP IN NORTHERN PA TO 11Z AS WE
SEE SOME LOCATIONS APPROACH THE LOWER END OF THE WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA (-15 TO -25) BY DAYBREAK. THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS
WILL OCCUR FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, OR
GENERALLY IN THE -20 TO -40 RANGE! SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING
-30 ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. WE CONTINUE TO STRESS THIS IS
A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND BE
SURE TO HAVE EXTRA BLANKETS, HATS, GLOVES IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE
OF A BREAKDOWN. IN ADDITION PREPARATIONS TO YOUR HOME TO PREVENT
FROZEN PIPES SHOULD BE MADE TODAY.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ON A 310 TO 330 FLOW. IT WILL BE MORE OF
A SPRAY OF FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS, WITH THE AIR BEING SO
COLD AND DRY THAT IT WON`T SUPPORT MORE THAN LIGHT COATINGS OR
DUSTING`S OF SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. I DID CONTINUE TO MENTION
BLOWING SNOW AS STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE FLUFF FACTOR TO
BLOW THE SNOW AROUND QUITE A BIT. LAKE SNOWS DIMINISH SUNDAY AS
TEMPS HOLD MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING,
PRODUCING BRIEF, TRANSIENT MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS, PRIMARILY AT
KSYR AND KRME.

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION, SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT (AFTER
03-05Z), WITH IFR/BELOW ALT MIN RESTRICTIONS MORE PROBABLE AT THIS
POINT.

ON SATURDAY, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY, WITH
PERSISTENT 25-35 KT GUSTS AREA-WIDE. KSYR AND KITH ARE LIKELY TO
SEE THE MOST PERSISTENT IFR/BELOW ALT MIN RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS, WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ALSO LIKELY AT KRME, KBGM,
AND KELM. KAVP SHOULD HAVE VFR MUCH OF THE TIME.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT INTO SUN...RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KSYR
AND KITH, WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KELM AND KBGM.
KRME AND KAVP SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR.

MON...VFR.

MON NGT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MLJ





000
FXUS61 KBGM 121513
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1013 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING. BRIEF, HEAVIER SNOW
SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH BITTERLY COLD AIR AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE
BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
WE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES, CLOUDS AND WINDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS MOST OF
THE ACTION WILL BE HAPPENING AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. WE WILL
REEVALUATE POTENTIAL FOR EVENING SNOW SQUALLS AND REFINE TIMING,
POTENTIALLY LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST A FEW
DEGREES AND ALSO POTENTIALLY UP WIND GUSTS WHEN ALL 12Z GUIDANCE
IS IN. NOT PLANNING ON A WIND ADVISORY JUST YET. 12Z NAM HAS
PRESSURE RISES OF AROUND 10 MB/6 HOURS IN NE PA WHICH IS BELOW
WHAT WE USUALLY EXPECT FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS (15 MB/6
HOURS). 12Z MET GUIDANCE ONLY HAS A 13 KNOT WIND MAXIMUM FOR
SATURDAY AT KAVP. METMPO HAS UP TO 17 KNOTS SATURDAY. WE USUALLY
SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WHEN OUR GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S KNOTS AS A RULE OF THUMB. IN ADDITION, VERY COLD AIR MASSES
LIKELY THIS ONE NEED A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR HIGH WINDS
DUE TO THE HIGHER DENSITY OF THE COLD AIR. HOWEVER, DOWNSLOPE
AREAS IN EASTERN PA COULD SEE SOME SORT OF KADABATIC WIND SET-UP
AS THE VERY COLD, DENSE AIR FLOWS DOWN FROM THE POCONOS LEADING TO
STRONGER WINDS THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THIS COMMONLY OCCURS IN PA
AND EASTERN NY. BUT OUR COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST PA ARE MOSTLY
UPSLOPE.

430 AM UPDATE...

ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING
NORTH OF OUR AREA. WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT, MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BITTER COLD
AIR, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS ON ITS ARRIVAL. THE
LEADING EDGE TO THIS BITTER AIR IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z. SNOW SQUALLS STILL APPEAR
LIKELY. MODEL REFLECTIVITY`S AND QPF MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING SNOW
POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE HIGH SNOW RATIOS (FLUFF FACTOR). DESPITE
LITTLE QPF, CONTINUED A GENERAL COATING TO 2 INCHES, WITH AMOUNTS
MORE THAN 3 INCHES POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NY. WITH SNOW RATES OF 1" OR
MORE PER HOUR POSSIBLE, SNOW ACCUMS MAY COME IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FOR
A TIME. WE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN OUR HWO AND OUR
ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE WHICH CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/BGM
UNDER THE WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING ICON AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...

AFTER LAST WINTER, SURPRISED TO SEE A DAY RIVAL WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED LAST YEAR SO SOON, IF EVEN FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
A WELL ADVERTISED SHOT OF DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
TUMBLE FROM A MIDNIGHT HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS, AND FALL
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MANY AREAS IN
NY STATE WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -15 AND
-30 DURING THE DAY. UPGRADED OUR WIND CHILL WATCH TO A WARNING
EVERYWHERE. THE TIMING WAS BUMPED UP IN NORTHERN PA TO 11Z AS WE
SEE SOME LOCATIONS APPROACH THE LOWER END OF THE WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA (-15 TO -25) BY DAYBREAK. THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS
WILL OCCUR FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, OR
GENERALLY IN THE -20 TO -40 RANGE! SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING
-30 ACROSS NORTHERN ONEDIA COUNTY. WE CONTINUE TO STRESS THIS IS A
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND BE SURE
TO HAVE EXTRA BLANKETS, HATS, GLOVES IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF A
BREAKDOWN. IN ADDITION PREPARATIONS TO YOUR HOME TO PREVENT
FROZEN PIPES SHOULD BE MADE TODAY.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ON A 310 TO 330 FLOW. IT WILL BE MORE OF
A SPRAY OF FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS, WITH THE AIR BEING SO
COLD AND DRY THAT IT WON`T SUPPORT MORE THAN LIGHT COATINGS OR
DUSTING`S OF SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. I DID CONTINUE TO MENTION
BLOWING SNOW AS STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE FLUFF FACTOR TO
BLOW THE SNOW AROUND QUITE A BIT. LAKE SNOWS DIMINISH SUNDAY AS
TEMPS HOLD MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TODAY AS HIPRES BLDS IN AND THE WINDS BECOME SWLY.
TNGT...A COLD FNT WILL APRCH AND TRIGGER SNOW SQUALLS...ESP AFT
O6Z. SNDG ACTUALLY QUITE UNSTABLE WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...SO
SOME INTENSE SQUALLS SEEM LIKELY WITH BRIEF VLIFR CONDS PSBL.
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LWR VSBYS WILL BE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS
CAUSING BLOWING SNOW. THESE SQUALLY CONDS WILL CONT THRU THE END
OF THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH A PROBABLE
LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND/OR HVY RAIN AS AN
EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 121133
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
633 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING. BRIEF, HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH BITTERLY COLD AIR AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE
BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...

ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING
NORTH OF OUR AREA. WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT, MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BITTER COLD
AIR, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS ON ITS ARRIVAL. THE
LEADING EDGE TO THIS BITTER AIR IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z. SNOW SQUALLS STILL APPEAR
LIKELY. MODEL REFLECTIVITY`S AND QPF MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING SNOW
POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE HIGH SNOW RATIOS (FLUFF FACTOR). DESPITE
LITTLE QPF, CONTINUED A GENERAL COATING TO 2 INCHES, WITH AMOUNTS
MORE THAN 3 INCHES POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NY. WITH SNOW RATES OF 1" OR
MORE PER HOUR POSSIBLE, SNOW ACCUMS MAY COME IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FOR
A TIME. WE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN OUR HWO AND OUR
ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE WHICH CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/BGM
UNDER THE WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING ICON AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...

AFTER LAST WINTER, SURPRISED TO SEE A DAY RIVAL WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED LAST YEAR SO SOON, IF EVEN FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
A WELL ADVERTISED SHOT OF DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
TUMBLE FROM A MIDNIGHT HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS, AND FALL
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MANY AREAS IN
NY STATE WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -15 AND
-30 DURING THE DAY. UPGRADED OUR WIND CHILL WATCH TO A WARNING
EVERYWHERE. THE TIMING WAS BUMPED UP IN NORTHERN PA TO 11Z AS WE
SEE SOME LOCATIONS APPROACH THE LOWER END OF THE WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA (-15 TO -25) BY DAYBREAK. THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS
WILL OCCUR FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, OR
GENERALLY IN THE -20 TO -40 RANGE! SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING
-30 ACROSS NORTHERN ONEDIA COUNTY. WE CONTINUE TO STRESS THIS IS A
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND BE SURE
TO HAVE EXTRA BLANKETS, HATS, GLOVES IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF A
BREAKDOWN. IN ADDITION PREPARATIONS TO YOUR HOME TO PREVENT
FROZEN PIPES SHOULD BE MADE TODAY.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ON A 310 TO 330 FLOW. IT WILL BE MORE OF
A SPRAY OF FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS, WITH THE AIR BEING SO
COLD AND DRY THAT IT WON`T SUPPORT MORE THAN LIGHT COATINGS OR
DUSTING`S OF SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. I DID CONTINUE TO MENTION
BLOWING SNOW AS STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE FLUFF FACTOR TO
BLOW THE SNOW AROUND QUITE A BIT. LAKE SNOWS DIMINISH SUNDAY AS
TEMPS HOLD MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TODAY AS HIPRES BLDS IN AND THE WINDS BECOME SWLY.
TNGT...A COLD FNT WILL APRCH AND TRIGGER SNOW SQUALLS...ESP AFT
O6Z. SNDG ACTUALLY QUITE UNSTABLE WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...SO
SOME INTENSE SQUALLS SEEM LIKELY WITH BRIEF VLIFR CONDS PSBL.
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LWR VSBYS WILL BE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS
CAUSING BLOWING SNOW. THESE SQUALLY CONDS WILL CONT THRU THE END
OF THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH A PROBABLE
LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND/OR HVY RAIN AS AN
EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 121133
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
633 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING. BRIEF, HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH BITTERLY COLD AIR AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE
BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...

ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING
NORTH OF OUR AREA. WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT, MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BITTER COLD
AIR, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS ON ITS ARRIVAL. THE
LEADING EDGE TO THIS BITTER AIR IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z. SNOW SQUALLS STILL APPEAR
LIKELY. MODEL REFLECTIVITY`S AND QPF MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING SNOW
POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE HIGH SNOW RATIOS (FLUFF FACTOR). DESPITE
LITTLE QPF, CONTINUED A GENERAL COATING TO 2 INCHES, WITH AMOUNTS
MORE THAN 3 INCHES POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NY. WITH SNOW RATES OF 1" OR
MORE PER HOUR POSSIBLE, SNOW ACCUMS MAY COME IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FOR
A TIME. WE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN OUR HWO AND OUR
ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE WHICH CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/BGM
UNDER THE WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING ICON AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...

AFTER LAST WINTER, SURPRISED TO SEE A DAY RIVAL WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED LAST YEAR SO SOON, IF EVEN FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
A WELL ADVERTISED SHOT OF DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
TUMBLE FROM A MIDNIGHT HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS, AND FALL
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MANY AREAS IN
NY STATE WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -15 AND
-30 DURING THE DAY. UPGRADED OUR WIND CHILL WATCH TO A WARNING
EVERYWHERE. THE TIMING WAS BUMPED UP IN NORTHERN PA TO 11Z AS WE
SEE SOME LOCATIONS APPROACH THE LOWER END OF THE WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA (-15 TO -25) BY DAYBREAK. THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS
WILL OCCUR FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, OR
GENERALLY IN THE -20 TO -40 RANGE! SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING
-30 ACROSS NORTHERN ONEDIA COUNTY. WE CONTINUE TO STRESS THIS IS A
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND BE SURE
TO HAVE EXTRA BLANKETS, HATS, GLOVES IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF A
BREAKDOWN. IN ADDITION PREPARATIONS TO YOUR HOME TO PREVENT
FROZEN PIPES SHOULD BE MADE TODAY.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ON A 310 TO 330 FLOW. IT WILL BE MORE OF
A SPRAY OF FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS, WITH THE AIR BEING SO
COLD AND DRY THAT IT WON`T SUPPORT MORE THAN LIGHT COATINGS OR
DUSTING`S OF SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. I DID CONTINUE TO MENTION
BLOWING SNOW AS STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE FLUFF FACTOR TO
BLOW THE SNOW AROUND QUITE A BIT. LAKE SNOWS DIMINISH SUNDAY AS
TEMPS HOLD MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TODAY AS HIPRES BLDS IN AND THE WINDS BECOME SWLY.
TNGT...A COLD FNT WILL APRCH AND TRIGGER SNOW SQUALLS...ESP AFT
O6Z. SNDG ACTUALLY QUITE UNSTABLE WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...SO
SOME INTENSE SQUALLS SEEM LIKELY WITH BRIEF VLIFR CONDS PSBL.
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LWR VSBYS WILL BE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS
CAUSING BLOWING SNOW. THESE SQUALLY CONDS WILL CONT THRU THE END
OF THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH A PROBABLE
LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND/OR HVY RAIN AS AN
EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 121133
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
633 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING. BRIEF, HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH BITTERLY COLD AIR AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE
BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...

ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING
NORTH OF OUR AREA. WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT, MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BITTER COLD
AIR, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS ON ITS ARRIVAL. THE
LEADING EDGE TO THIS BITTER AIR IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z. SNOW SQUALLS STILL APPEAR
LIKELY. MODEL REFLECTIVITY`S AND QPF MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING SNOW
POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE HIGH SNOW RATIOS (FLUFF FACTOR). DESPITE
LITTLE QPF, CONTINUED A GENERAL COATING TO 2 INCHES, WITH AMOUNTS
MORE THAN 3 INCHES POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NY. WITH SNOW RATES OF 1" OR
MORE PER HOUR POSSIBLE, SNOW ACCUMS MAY COME IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FOR
A TIME. WE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN OUR HWO AND OUR
ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE WHICH CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/BGM
UNDER THE WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING ICON AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...

AFTER LAST WINTER, SURPRISED TO SEE A DAY RIVAL WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED LAST YEAR SO SOON, IF EVEN FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
A WELL ADVERTISED SHOT OF DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
TUMBLE FROM A MIDNIGHT HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS, AND FALL
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MANY AREAS IN
NY STATE WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -15 AND
-30 DURING THE DAY. UPGRADED OUR WIND CHILL WATCH TO A WARNING
EVERYWHERE. THE TIMING WAS BUMPED UP IN NORTHERN PA TO 11Z AS WE
SEE SOME LOCATIONS APPROACH THE LOWER END OF THE WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA (-15 TO -25) BY DAYBREAK. THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS
WILL OCCUR FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, OR
GENERALLY IN THE -20 TO -40 RANGE! SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING
-30 ACROSS NORTHERN ONEDIA COUNTY. WE CONTINUE TO STRESS THIS IS A
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND BE SURE
TO HAVE EXTRA BLANKETS, HATS, GLOVES IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF A
BREAKDOWN. IN ADDITION PREPARATIONS TO YOUR HOME TO PREVENT
FROZEN PIPES SHOULD BE MADE TODAY.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ON A 310 TO 330 FLOW. IT WILL BE MORE OF
A SPRAY OF FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS, WITH THE AIR BEING SO
COLD AND DRY THAT IT WON`T SUPPORT MORE THAN LIGHT COATINGS OR
DUSTING`S OF SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. I DID CONTINUE TO MENTION
BLOWING SNOW AS STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE FLUFF FACTOR TO
BLOW THE SNOW AROUND QUITE A BIT. LAKE SNOWS DIMINISH SUNDAY AS
TEMPS HOLD MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TODAY AS HIPRES BLDS IN AND THE WINDS BECOME SWLY.
TNGT...A COLD FNT WILL APRCH AND TRIGGER SNOW SQUALLS...ESP AFT
O6Z. SNDG ACTUALLY QUITE UNSTABLE WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...SO
SOME INTENSE SQUALLS SEEM LIKELY WITH BRIEF VLIFR CONDS PSBL.
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LWR VSBYS WILL BE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS
CAUSING BLOWING SNOW. THESE SQUALLY CONDS WILL CONT THRU THE END
OF THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH A PROBABLE
LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND/OR HVY RAIN AS AN
EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 120952
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
452 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING. BRIEF, HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH BITTERLY COLD AIR AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE
BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...

ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING
NORTH OF OUR AREA. WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT, MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BITTER COLD
AIR, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS ON ITS ARRIVAL. THE
LEADING EDGE TO THIS BITTER AIR IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z. SNOW SQUALLS STILL APPEAR
LIKELY. MODEL REFLECTIVITY`S AND QPF MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING SNOW
POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE HIGH SNOW RATIOS (FLUFF FACTOR). DESPITE
LITTLE QPF, CONTINUED A GENERAL COATING TO 2 INCHES, WITH AMOUNTS
MORE THAN 3 INCHES POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NY. WITH SNOW RATES OF 1" OR
MORE PER HOUR POSSIBLE, SNOW ACCUMS MAY COME IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FOR
A TIME. WE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN OUR HWO AND OUR
ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE WHICH CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/BGM
UNDER THE WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING ICON AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...

AFTER LAST WINTER, SURPRISED TO SEE A DAY RIVAL WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED LAST YEAR SO SOON, IF EVEN FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
A WELL ADVERTISED SHOT OF DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
TUMBLE FROM A MIDNIGHT HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS, AND FALL
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MANY AREAS IN
NY STATE WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -15 AND
-30 DURING THE DAY. UPGRADED OUR WIND CHILL WATCH TO A WARNING
EVERYWHERE. THE TIMING WAS BUMPED UP IN NORTHERN PA TO 11Z AS WE
SEE SOME LOCATIONS APPROACH THE LOWER END OF THE WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA (-15 TO -25) BY DAYBREAK. THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS
WILL OCCUR FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, OR
GENERALLY IN THE -20 TO -40 RANGE! SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING
-30 ACROSS NORTHERN ONEDIA COUNTY. WE CONTINUE TO STRESS THIS IS A
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND BE SURE
TO HAVE EXTRA BLANKETS, HATS, GLOVES IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF A
BREAKDOWN. IN ADDITION PREPARATIONS TO YOUR HOME TO PREVENT
FROZEN PIPES SHOULD BE MADE TODAY.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ON A 310 TO 330 FLOW. IT WILL BE MORE OF
A SPRAY OF FLURRIES AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS, WITH THE AIR BEING SO
COLD AND DRY THAT IT WON`T SUPPORT MORE THAN LIGHT COATINGS OR
DUSTING`S OF SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. I DID CONTINUE TO MENTION
BLOWING SNOW AS STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE FLUFF FACTOR TO
BLOW THE SNOW AROUND QUITE A BIT. LAKE SNOWS DIMINISH SUNDAY AS
TEMPS HOLD MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LE BAND OVER SYR WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWRD OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND
BRING OCNL IFR CONDS. AFTER THAT...GNRL VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THRU THE FCST AREA WITH LGT WLY WINDS. THIS WILL CONT INTO FRI.
LATE IN THE PD...AND APRCHG COLD FNT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SQUALLS AND BRIEF LWR CONDS TO THE NY SITES THRU THE END OF THE
PD.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH A PROBABLE
LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND/OR HVY RAIN AS AN
EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BJT/DGM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 120545
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1245 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THEN SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BITTERLY
COLD AIR AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW ZERO BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND WE ONLY EXPECT
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES AT MOST ACROSS ONEIDA/MADISON/ONONDAGA
COUNTIES TONIGHT SO DROPPED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
FINALLY, ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BROKEN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORIENTED
FROM AROUND 290 DEGREES CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO AROUND 300
DEGREES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
MOVING THE SNOW BANDS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. BASED ON THIS WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE
THAT SOME MODERATE SNOW WILL REACH THE CITY OF SYRACUSE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. FACTORS WORKING AGAINST REALLY HEAVY
SNOW THIS EVENING INCLUDE THAT THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CONTINUES
TO BE CONFINED TO THE LAYER BELOW 900 MB DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR
MASS IN PLACE. IN ADDITION THE GRADUAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
BANDS SHOULD KEEP HEAVY SNOW FROM PERSISTING AT ANY ONE LOCATION
FOR LONG. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST PLACES
GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL
COMBINE WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE FARTHER SOUTH BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD
STILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS
EVENING FROM CAYUGA AND SENECA COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH CORTLAND AND
OTSEGO COUNTIES. WE WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN THIS
AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE ENDING THIS EVENING. THINGS
SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY
AND DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST... WITH WEAKENING BANDS
SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EAST SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH MAINLY DRY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH MANY
PLACES PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 DEGREES C PER KM FRIDAY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NY AND OVER 7.0 DEGREES C PER KM OVER NORTHEAST PA WITH
SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THEY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LOWERING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN -30 AND -32 OVER CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH IS ABOUT AS COLD AS WE
EVER SEE IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY MORNING... HOLDING
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY THEN FALLING BELOW ZERO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS CREATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE ARE GOING WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH FOR CENTRAL NY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
AND A WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD... BUT
STILL DANGEROUSLY COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. NNW FLOW WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THE FINGER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AS DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL
WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BEING BELOW -20 C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.

BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LE BAND OVER SYR WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWRD OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND
BRING OCNL IFR CONDS. AFTER THAT...GNRL VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THRU THE FCST AREA WITH LGT WLY WINDS. THIS WILL CONT INTO FRI.
LATE IN THE PD...AND APRCHG COLD FNT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SQUALLS AND BRIEF LWR CONDS TO THE NY SITES THRU THE END OF THE
PD.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH A PROBABLE
LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND/OR HVY RAIN AS AN
EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BJT/DGM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 120028
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
728 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THEN SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW
ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND WE ONLY EXPECT
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES AT MOST ACROSS ONEIDA/MADISON/ONONDAGA
COUNTIES TONIGHT SO DROPPED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
FINALLY, ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BROKEN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORIENTED
FROM AROUND 290 DEGREES CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO AROUND 300
DEGREES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
MOVING THE SNOW BANDS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. BASED ON THIS WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE
THAT SOME MODERATE SNOW WILL REACH THE CITY OF SYRACUSE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. FACTORS WORKING AGAINST REALLY HEAVY
SNOW THIS EVENING INCLUDE THAT THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CONTINUES
TO BE CONFINED TO THE LAYER BELOW 900 MB DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR
MASS IN PLACE. IN ADDITION THE GRADUAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
BANDS SHOULD KEEP HEAVY SNOW FROM PERSISTING AT ANY ONE LOCATION
FOR LONG. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST PLACES
GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL
COMBINE WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE FARTHER SOUTH BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD
STILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS
EVENING FROM CAYUGA AND SENECA COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH CORTLAND AND
OTSEGO COUNTIES. WE WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN THIS
AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE ENDING THIS EVENING. THINGS
SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY
AND DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST... WITH WEAKENING BANDS
SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EAST SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH MAINLY DRY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH MANY
PLACES PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 DEGREES C PER KM FRIDAY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NY AND OVER 7.0 DEGREES C PER KM OVER NORTHEAST PA WITH
SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THEY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LOWERING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN -30 AND -32 OVER CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH IS ABOUT AS COLD AS WE
EVER SEE IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY MORNING... HOLDING
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY THEN FALLING BELOW ZERO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS CREATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE ARE GOING WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH FOR CENTRAL NY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
AND A WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD... BUT
STILL DANGEROUSLY COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. NNW FLOW WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THE FINGER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AS DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL
WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BEING BELOW -20 C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.

BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VSBYS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR THIS EVENING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER
VIS BEFORE THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKER SNOW
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOST
TERMINALS WITH BKN MVFR CIGS AND GENERALLY VFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH A PROBABLE
LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND/OR HVY RAIN AS AN
EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BJT/MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 120028
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
728 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THEN SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW
ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND WE ONLY EXPECT
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES AT MOST ACROSS ONEIDA/MADISON/ONONDAGA
COUNTIES TONIGHT SO DROPPED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
FINALLY, ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BROKEN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORIENTED
FROM AROUND 290 DEGREES CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO AROUND 300
DEGREES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
MOVING THE SNOW BANDS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. BASED ON THIS WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE
THAT SOME MODERATE SNOW WILL REACH THE CITY OF SYRACUSE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. FACTORS WORKING AGAINST REALLY HEAVY
SNOW THIS EVENING INCLUDE THAT THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CONTINUES
TO BE CONFINED TO THE LAYER BELOW 900 MB DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR
MASS IN PLACE. IN ADDITION THE GRADUAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
BANDS SHOULD KEEP HEAVY SNOW FROM PERSISTING AT ANY ONE LOCATION
FOR LONG. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST PLACES
GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL
COMBINE WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE FARTHER SOUTH BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD
STILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS
EVENING FROM CAYUGA AND SENECA COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH CORTLAND AND
OTSEGO COUNTIES. WE WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN THIS
AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE ENDING THIS EVENING. THINGS
SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY
AND DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST... WITH WEAKENING BANDS
SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EAST SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH MAINLY DRY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH MANY
PLACES PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 DEGREES C PER KM FRIDAY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NY AND OVER 7.0 DEGREES C PER KM OVER NORTHEAST PA WITH
SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THEY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LOWERING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN -30 AND -32 OVER CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH IS ABOUT AS COLD AS WE
EVER SEE IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY MORNING... HOLDING
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY THEN FALLING BELOW ZERO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS CREATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE ARE GOING WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH FOR CENTRAL NY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
AND A WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD... BUT
STILL DANGEROUSLY COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. NNW FLOW WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THE FINGER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AS DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL
WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BEING BELOW -20 C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.

BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VSBYS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR THIS EVENING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER
VIS BEFORE THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKER SNOW
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOST
TERMINALS WITH BKN MVFR CIGS AND GENERALLY VFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH A PROBABLE
LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND/OR HVY RAIN AS AN
EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BJT/MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 120028
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
728 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THEN SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW
ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND WE ONLY EXPECT
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES AT MOST ACROSS ONEIDA/MADISON/ONONDAGA
COUNTIES TONIGHT SO DROPPED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
FINALLY, ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BROKEN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORIENTED
FROM AROUND 290 DEGREES CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO AROUND 300
DEGREES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
MOVING THE SNOW BANDS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. BASED ON THIS WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE
THAT SOME MODERATE SNOW WILL REACH THE CITY OF SYRACUSE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. FACTORS WORKING AGAINST REALLY HEAVY
SNOW THIS EVENING INCLUDE THAT THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CONTINUES
TO BE CONFINED TO THE LAYER BELOW 900 MB DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR
MASS IN PLACE. IN ADDITION THE GRADUAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
BANDS SHOULD KEEP HEAVY SNOW FROM PERSISTING AT ANY ONE LOCATION
FOR LONG. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST PLACES
GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL
COMBINE WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE FARTHER SOUTH BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD
STILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS
EVENING FROM CAYUGA AND SENECA COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH CORTLAND AND
OTSEGO COUNTIES. WE WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN THIS
AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE ENDING THIS EVENING. THINGS
SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY
AND DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST... WITH WEAKENING BANDS
SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EAST SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH MAINLY DRY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH MANY
PLACES PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 DEGREES C PER KM FRIDAY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NY AND OVER 7.0 DEGREES C PER KM OVER NORTHEAST PA WITH
SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THEY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LOWERING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN -30 AND -32 OVER CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH IS ABOUT AS COLD AS WE
EVER SEE IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY MORNING... HOLDING
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY THEN FALLING BELOW ZERO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS CREATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE ARE GOING WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH FOR CENTRAL NY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
AND A WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD... BUT
STILL DANGEROUSLY COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. NNW FLOW WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THE FINGER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AS DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL
WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BEING BELOW -20 C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.

BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VSBYS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR THIS EVENING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER
VIS BEFORE THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKER SNOW
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOST
TERMINALS WITH BKN MVFR CIGS AND GENERALLY VFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH A PROBABLE
LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND/OR HVY RAIN AS AN
EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BJT/MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 112331 AAA
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
631 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THEN SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW
ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BROKEN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORIENTED FROM AROUND 290 DEGREES
CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO AROUND 300 DEGREES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD FAVOR MOVING THE SNOW BANDS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THIS WE BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME MODERATE SNOW WILL
REACH THE CITY OF SYRACUSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
FACTORS WORKING AGAINST REALLY HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING INCLUDE
THAT THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CONTINUES TO BE CONFINED TO THE
LAYER BELOW 900 MB DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION THE GRADUAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS SHOULD KEEP
HEAVY SNOW FROM PERSISTING AT ANY ONE LOCATION FOR LONG. BASED ON
THIS WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST PLACES GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH BLOWING AND
DRIFTING TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE FARTHER
SOUTH BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM CAYUGA AND SENECA
COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH CORTLAND AND OTSEGO COUNTIES. WE WILL ALLOW
THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
ENDING THIS EVENING. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE
FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY AND DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST... WITH WEAKENING BANDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EAST
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH MAINLY DRY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH MANY
PLACES PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 DEGREES C PER KM FRIDAY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NY AND OVER 7.0 DEGREES C PER KM OVER NORTHEAST PA WITH
SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THEY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LOWERING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN -30 AND -32 OVER CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH IS ABOUT AS COLD AS WE
EVER SEE IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY MORNING... HOLDING
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY THEN FALLING BELOW ZERO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS CREATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE ARE GOING WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH FOR CENTRAL NY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
AND A WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD... BUT
STILL DANGEROUSLY COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. NNW FLOW WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THE FINGER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AS DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL
WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BEING BELOW -20 C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.

BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VSBYS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR THIS EVENING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER
VIS BEFORE THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKER SNOW
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOST
TERMINALS WITH BKN MVFR CIGS AND GENERALLY VFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH A PROBABLE
LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND/OR HVY RAIN AS AN
EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ062.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BJT/MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 112331 AAA
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
631 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THEN SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW
ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BROKEN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORIENTED FROM AROUND 290 DEGREES
CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO AROUND 300 DEGREES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD FAVOR MOVING THE SNOW BANDS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THIS WE BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME MODERATE SNOW WILL
REACH THE CITY OF SYRACUSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
FACTORS WORKING AGAINST REALLY HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING INCLUDE
THAT THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CONTINUES TO BE CONFINED TO THE
LAYER BELOW 900 MB DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION THE GRADUAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS SHOULD KEEP
HEAVY SNOW FROM PERSISTING AT ANY ONE LOCATION FOR LONG. BASED ON
THIS WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST PLACES GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH BLOWING AND
DRIFTING TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE FARTHER
SOUTH BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM CAYUGA AND SENECA
COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH CORTLAND AND OTSEGO COUNTIES. WE WILL ALLOW
THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
ENDING THIS EVENING. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE
FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY AND DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST... WITH WEAKENING BANDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EAST
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH MAINLY DRY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH MANY
PLACES PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 DEGREES C PER KM FRIDAY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NY AND OVER 7.0 DEGREES C PER KM OVER NORTHEAST PA WITH
SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THEY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LOWERING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN -30 AND -32 OVER CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH IS ABOUT AS COLD AS WE
EVER SEE IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY MORNING... HOLDING
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY THEN FALLING BELOW ZERO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS CREATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE ARE GOING WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH FOR CENTRAL NY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
AND A WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD... BUT
STILL DANGEROUSLY COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. NNW FLOW WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THE FINGER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AS DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL
WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BEING BELOW -20 C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.

BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VSBYS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR THIS EVENING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER
VIS BEFORE THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKER SNOW
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOST
TERMINALS WITH BKN MVFR CIGS AND GENERALLY VFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH A PROBABLE
LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND/OR HVY RAIN AS AN
EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ062.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BJT/MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 112331 AAA
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
631 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THEN SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW
ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BROKEN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORIENTED FROM AROUND 290 DEGREES
CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO AROUND 300 DEGREES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD FAVOR MOVING THE SNOW BANDS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THIS WE BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME MODERATE SNOW WILL
REACH THE CITY OF SYRACUSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
FACTORS WORKING AGAINST REALLY HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING INCLUDE
THAT THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CONTINUES TO BE CONFINED TO THE
LAYER BELOW 900 MB DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION THE GRADUAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS SHOULD KEEP
HEAVY SNOW FROM PERSISTING AT ANY ONE LOCATION FOR LONG. BASED ON
THIS WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST PLACES GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH BLOWING AND
DRIFTING TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE FARTHER
SOUTH BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM CAYUGA AND SENECA
COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH CORTLAND AND OTSEGO COUNTIES. WE WILL ALLOW
THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
ENDING THIS EVENING. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE
FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY AND DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST... WITH WEAKENING BANDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EAST
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH MAINLY DRY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH MANY
PLACES PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 DEGREES C PER KM FRIDAY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NY AND OVER 7.0 DEGREES C PER KM OVER NORTHEAST PA WITH
SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THEY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LOWERING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN -30 AND -32 OVER CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH IS ABOUT AS COLD AS WE
EVER SEE IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY MORNING... HOLDING
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY THEN FALLING BELOW ZERO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS CREATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE ARE GOING WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH FOR CENTRAL NY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
AND A WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD... BUT
STILL DANGEROUSLY COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. NNW FLOW WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THE FINGER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AS DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL
WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BEING BELOW -20 C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.

BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VSBYS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR THIS EVENING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER
VIS BEFORE THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKER SNOW
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOST
TERMINALS WITH BKN MVFR CIGS AND GENERALLY VFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH A PROBABLE
LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND/OR HVY RAIN AS AN
EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ062.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BJT/MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 112031
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
331 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THEN SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW
ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BROKEN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORIENTED FROM AROUND 290 DEGREES
CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO AROUND 300 DEGREES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD FAVOR MOVING THE SNOW BANDS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THIS WE BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME MODERATE SNOW WILL
REACH THE CITY OF SYRACUSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
FACTORS WORKING AGAINST REALLY HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING INCLUDE
THAT THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CONTINUES TO BE CONFINED TO THE
LAYER BELOW 900 MB DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION THE GRADUAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS SHOULD KEEP
HEAVY SNOW FROM PERSISTING AT ANY ONE LOCATION FOR LONG. BASED ON
THIS WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST PLACES GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH BLOWING AND
DRIFTING TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE FARTHER
SOUTH BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM CAYUGA AND SENECA
COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH CORTLAND AND OTSEGO COUNTIES. WE WILL ALLOW
THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
ENDING THIS EVENING. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE
FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY AND DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST... WITH WEAKENING BANDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EAST
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH MAINLY DRY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH MANY
PLACES PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 DEGREES C PER KM FRIDAY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NY AND OVER 7.0 DEGREES C PER KM OVER NORTHEAST PA WITH
SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THEY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LOWERING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN -30 AND -32 OVER CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH IS ABOUT AS COLD AS WE
EVER SEE IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TOFALL TO NEAR ZERO IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY MORNING... HOLDING
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY THEN FALLING BELOW ZERO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS CREATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE ARE GOING WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH FOR CENTRAL NY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
AND A WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD... BUT
STILL DANGEROUSLY COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. NNW FLOW WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THE FINGER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AS DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL
WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BEING BELOW -20 C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.

BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR AND KRME THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
EVENING FOR KSYR BEFORE LIFTING BACK BRIEFLY INTO KRME LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER VIS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING /VRB TO SE KRME/. FURTHER
SOUTH...THINNER BANDS WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE OTHER NY
TERMINALS...INCLUDING INTERMITTENT IFR VIS FOR KBGM THROUGH 20Z
AND MVFR VIS FOR KITH. KAVP AND KELM WILL GET FLURRIES BUT LIKELY
NON-RESTRICTING. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING KSYR-KRME ISSUES
MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL TERMINALS GO VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-NGT...VFR UNTIL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH
A PROBABLE LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AS AN EAST COAST SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ062.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 112016
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
316 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THEN SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW
ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BROKEN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORIENTED FROM AROUND 290 DEGREES
CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO AROUND 300 DEGREES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD FAVOR MOVING THE SNOW BANDS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THIS WE BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME MODERATE SNOW WILL
REACH THE CITY OF SYRACUSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
FACTORS WORKING AGAINST REALLY HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING INCLUDE
THAT THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CONTINUES TO BE CONFINED TO THE
LAYER BELOW 900 MB DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION THE GRADUAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS SHOULD KEEP
HEAVY SNOW FROM PERSISTING AT ANY ONE LOCATION FOR LONG. BASED ON
THIS WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST PLACES GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH BLOWING AND
DRIFTING TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE FARTHER
SOUTH BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM CAYUGA AND SENACA
COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH CORTLAND AND OTSEGO COUNTIES. WE WILL ALLOW
THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
ENDING THIS EVENING. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE
FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY AND DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST... WITH WEAKENING BANDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EAST
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH MAINLY DRY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH MANY
PLACES PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 DEGREES C PER KM FRIDAY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NY AND OVER 7.0 DEGREES C PER KM OVER NORTHEAST PA WITH
SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOWRES AS THEY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LOWERING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN -30 AND -32 OVER CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH IS ABOUT AS COLD AS WE
EVER SEE IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERAUTRES
TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY MORNING... HOLDING
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY THEN FALLING BELOW ZERO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS CREATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE ARE GOING WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH FOR CENTRAL NY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
AND A WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD... BUT
STILL DANGEROUSLY COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. NNW FLOW WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THE FINGER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AS DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL
WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BEING BELOW -20 C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR AND KRME THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
EVENING FOR KSYR BEFORE LIFTING BACK BRIEFLY INTO KRME LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER VIS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING /VRB TO SE KRME/. FURTHER
SOUTH...THINNER BANDS WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE OTHER NY
TERMINALS...INCLUDING INTERMITTENT IFR VIS FOR KBGM THROUGH 20Z
AND MVFR VIS FOR KITH. KAVP AND KELM WILL GET FLURRIES BUT LIKELY
NON-RESTRICTING. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING KSYR-KRME ISSUES
MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL TERMINALS GO VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-NGT...VFR UNTIL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH
A PROBABLE LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AS AN EAST COAST SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ062.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 112002
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
302 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1130 AM... MAIN LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE E-SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ON ABOUT A 290 FLOW LATE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SECONDARY WEAKER BANDS FARTHER SOUTH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PA.
BANDS STILL APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND ARE NEAR THE
THRUWAY LATE THIS MORNING WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
BANDS TO GET INTO THE CITIES OF SYRACUSE AND UTICA AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY EAST TO WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM FROM THESE BANDS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRY AND NO GOOD CONNECTION WITH LAKE HURON /
GEORGIAN BAY CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ALSO DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH SO THAT ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER ABOVE -20 C EXISTS BELOW
900 MB.

WILL KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL... ALTHOUGH WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE CITY OF SYRACUSE THROUGH TODAY... WITH JUST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS WITH
TEENS IN MOST AREAS TO NEAR 20 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
PA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.

WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.

BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR AND KRME THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
EVENING FOR KSYR BEFORE LIFTING BACK BRIEFLY INTO KRME LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER VIS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING /VRB TO SE KRME/. FURTHER
SOUTH...THINNER BANDS WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE OTHER NY
TERMINALS...INCLUDING INTERMITTENT IFR VIS FOR KBGM THROUGH 20Z
AND MVFR VIS FOR KITH. KAVP AND KELM WILL GET FLURRIES BUT LIKELY
NON-RESTRICTING. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING KSYR-KRME ISSUES
MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL TERMINALS GO VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-NGT...VFR UNTIL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH
A PROBABLE LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW-TO-MIX AS AN EAST COAST
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 112002
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
302 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1130 AM... MAIN LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE E-SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ON ABOUT A 290 FLOW LATE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SECONDARY WEAKER BANDS FARTHER SOUTH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PA.
BANDS STILL APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND ARE NEAR THE
THRUWAY LATE THIS MORNING WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
BANDS TO GET INTO THE CITIES OF SYRACUSE AND UTICA AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY EAST TO WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM FROM THESE BANDS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRY AND NO GOOD CONNECTION WITH LAKE HURON /
GEORGIAN BAY CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ALSO DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH SO THAT ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER ABOVE -20 C EXISTS BELOW
900 MB.

WILL KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL... ALTHOUGH WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE CITY OF SYRACUSE THROUGH TODAY... WITH JUST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS WITH
TEENS IN MOST AREAS TO NEAR 20 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
PA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.

WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.

BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR AND KRME THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
EVENING FOR KSYR BEFORE LIFTING BACK BRIEFLY INTO KRME LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER VIS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING /VRB TO SE KRME/. FURTHER
SOUTH...THINNER BANDS WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE OTHER NY
TERMINALS...INCLUDING INTERMITTENT IFR VIS FOR KBGM THROUGH 20Z
AND MVFR VIS FOR KITH. KAVP AND KELM WILL GET FLURRIES BUT LIKELY
NON-RESTRICTING. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING KSYR-KRME ISSUES
MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL TERMINALS GO VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-NGT...VFR UNTIL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH
A PROBABLE LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW-TO-MIX AS AN EAST COAST
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 111753
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1253 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1130 AM... MAIN LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE E-SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ON ABOUT A 290 FLOW LATE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SECONDARY WEAKER BANDS FARTHER SOUTH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PA.
BANDS STILL APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND ARE NEAR THE
THRUWAY LATE THIS MORNING WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
BANDS TO GET INTO THE CITIES OF SYRACUSE AND UTICA AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY EAST TO WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM FROM THESE BANDS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRY AND NO GOOD CONNECTION WITH LAKE HURON /
GEORGIAN BAY CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ALSO DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH SO THAT ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER ABOVE -20 C EXISTS BELOW
900 MB.

WILL KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL... ALTHOUGH WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE CITY OF SYRACUSE THROUGH TODAY... WITH JUST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS WITH
TEENS IN MOST AREAS TO NEAR 20 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
PA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.

WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR AND KRME THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
EVENING FOR KSYR BEFORE LIFTING BACK BRIEFLY INTO KRME LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER VIS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING /VRB TO SE KRME/. FURTHER
SOUTH...THINNER BANDS WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE OTHER NY
TERMINALS...INCLUDING INTERMITTENT IFR VIS FOR KBGM THROUGH 20Z
AND MVFR VIS FOR KITH. KAVP AND KELM WILL GET FLURRIES BUT LIKELY
NON-RESTRICTING. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING KSYR-KRME ISSUES
MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL TERMINALS GO VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-NGT...VFR UNTIL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH
A PROBABLE LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AS AN EAST COAST SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 111753
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1253 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1130 AM... MAIN LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE E-SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ON ABOUT A 290 FLOW LATE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SECONDARY WEAKER BANDS FARTHER SOUTH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PA.
BANDS STILL APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND ARE NEAR THE
THRUWAY LATE THIS MORNING WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
BANDS TO GET INTO THE CITIES OF SYRACUSE AND UTICA AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY EAST TO WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM FROM THESE BANDS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRY AND NO GOOD CONNECTION WITH LAKE HURON /
GEORGIAN BAY CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ALSO DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH SO THAT ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER ABOVE -20 C EXISTS BELOW
900 MB.

WILL KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL... ALTHOUGH WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE CITY OF SYRACUSE THROUGH TODAY... WITH JUST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS WITH
TEENS IN MOST AREAS TO NEAR 20 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
PA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.

WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR AND KRME THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
EVENING FOR KSYR BEFORE LIFTING BACK BRIEFLY INTO KRME LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER VIS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING /VRB TO SE KRME/. FURTHER
SOUTH...THINNER BANDS WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE OTHER NY
TERMINALS...INCLUDING INTERMITTENT IFR VIS FOR KBGM THROUGH 20Z
AND MVFR VIS FOR KITH. KAVP AND KELM WILL GET FLURRIES BUT LIKELY
NON-RESTRICTING. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING KSYR-KRME ISSUES
MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL TERMINALS GO VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-NGT...VFR UNTIL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH
A PROBABLE LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AS AN EAST COAST SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 111753
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1253 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1130 AM... MAIN LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE E-SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ON ABOUT A 290 FLOW LATE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SECONDARY WEAKER BANDS FARTHER SOUTH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PA.
BANDS STILL APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND ARE NEAR THE
THRUWAY LATE THIS MORNING WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
BANDS TO GET INTO THE CITIES OF SYRACUSE AND UTICA AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY EAST TO WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM FROM THESE BANDS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRY AND NO GOOD CONNECTION WITH LAKE HURON /
GEORGIAN BAY CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ALSO DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH SO THAT ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER ABOVE -20 C EXISTS BELOW
900 MB.

WILL KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL... ALTHOUGH WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE CITY OF SYRACUSE THROUGH TODAY... WITH JUST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS WITH
TEENS IN MOST AREAS TO NEAR 20 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
PA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.

WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR AND KRME THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
EVENING FOR KSYR BEFORE LIFTING BACK BRIEFLY INTO KRME LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER VIS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING /VRB TO SE KRME/. FURTHER
SOUTH...THINNER BANDS WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE OTHER NY
TERMINALS...INCLUDING INTERMITTENT IFR VIS FOR KBGM THROUGH 20Z
AND MVFR VIS FOR KITH. KAVP AND KELM WILL GET FLURRIES BUT LIKELY
NON-RESTRICTING. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING KSYR-KRME ISSUES
MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL TERMINALS GO VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-NGT...VFR UNTIL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH
A PROBABLE LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AS AN EAST COAST SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 111652
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1152 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1130 AM... MAIN LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE E-SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ON ABOUT A 290 FLOW LATE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SECONDARY WEAKER BANDS FARTHER SOUTH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PA.
BANDS STILL APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND ARE NEAR THE
THRUWAY LATE THIS MORNING WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
BANDS TO GET INTO THE CITIES OF SYRACUSE AND UTICA AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY EAST TO WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM FROM THESE BANDS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRY AND NO GOOD CONNECTION WITH LAKE HURON /
GEORGIAN BAY CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ALSO DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH SO THAT ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER ABOVE -20 C EXISTS BELOW
900 MB.

WILL KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL... ALTHOUGH WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE CITY OF SYRACUSE THROUGH TODAY... WITH JUST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS WITH
TEENS IN MOST AREAS TO NEAR 20 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
PA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.

WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LE SNOW BAND IS XPCTD TO DROP SWRD ACROSS RME AND STALL IN THE SYR
AREA FOR SVRL HRS TODAY. THIS WEILL BRING BRIEF IFR CONDS TO
RME...AND PROLONGED IFR CIGS AND VSBY TO SYR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...SCT SNOW SHWRS WILL BRING BRIEF LWR CONDS BUT MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL BE VFR ELSEWHERE. BAND IS XPCTD TO LIFT NWRD LTR THIS
EVE LVG VFR CONDS AT ALL STATIONS.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND TIME
AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

MON...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 111139
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
639 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.

WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LE SNOW BAND IS XPCTD TO DROP SWRD ACROSS RME AND STALL IN THE SYR
AREA FOR SVRL HRS TODAY. THIS WEILL BRING BRIEF IFR CONDS TO
RME...AND PROLONGED IFR CIGS AND VSBY TO SYR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...SCT SNOW SHWRS WILL BRING BRIEF LWR CONDS BUT MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL BE VFR ELSEWHERE. BAND IS XPCTD TO LIFT NWRD LTR THIS
EVE LVG VFR CONDS AT ALL STATIONS.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND TIME
AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

MON...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 111139
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
639 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.

WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LE SNOW BAND IS XPCTD TO DROP SWRD ACROSS RME AND STALL IN THE SYR
AREA FOR SVRL HRS TODAY. THIS WEILL BRING BRIEF IFR CONDS TO
RME...AND PROLONGED IFR CIGS AND VSBY TO SYR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...SCT SNOW SHWRS WILL BRING BRIEF LWR CONDS BUT MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL BE VFR ELSEWHERE. BAND IS XPCTD TO LIFT NWRD LTR THIS
EVE LVG VFR CONDS AT ALL STATIONS.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND TIME
AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

MON...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 110915
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
415 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.

WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LE BAND WILL LINGER IN THE SYR/RME CORRIDOR AND BRING OCNL IFR
CONDS INTO THU. BAND IS XPCTD TO GRADUALLY SLIP SOPUTH AND WILL
BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO ITH ANBD BGM LTR IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL ERODE THE LAKE EFFECT LVG GNRL
VFR CONDS TO ALL STATIONS AFT 00Z. GUSTY WEST WNDS TODAY WILL
BECOME LGTR AFT SUNSET THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU NGT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND TIME
AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

MON...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM/PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 110820
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.

WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
430 PM UPDATE...
MAIN ATTENTION TURNS TO A SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR...THE
COLDEST SINCE LAST WINTER...WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS BY SATURDAY.

BEFORE THAT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE WARNING ZONES...BUT OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BACK WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...WHICH WILL DIMINISH AND
SHIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EAST
ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA AND DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THE FRONT LOOKS PRIMED TO PICK UP GREAT
LAKES MOISTURE AS IT DROPS. IT LOOKS QUITE PROBABLE THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY STOUT SNOW SQUALL FRIDAY EVENING.
WHILE IT MAY ONLY PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION...IT
WILL LIKELY COME DOWN VERY ABRUPTLY.

FORECAST MODELS IN GREAT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON 500 MB TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 490 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-30 C...ABOUT AS COLD AS IS SEEN AROUND HERE. VERY RUDE AWAKENING
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WIND CHILLS ALREADY WELL BELOW ZERO...AND
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS AND FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY. WIND CHILLS TEENS-20S BELOW ZERO ARE FIGURED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME PLACES EVEN COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT. UNPROTECTED
VULNERABLE PLUMBING MAY EXPERIENCE FREEZING/BREAKING...AND ANYONE
NOT TAKING PROPER PRECAUTIONS OUTSIDE COULD EXPERIENCE FROSTBITE
HYPOTHERMIA. THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL ACTUALLY CRASH TO THE GROUND IN THIS
ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO LAKE EFFECT WILL BE LIMITED YET DRY FLUFFY
FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED OUT OF JUST ABOUT ANY CLOUD.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SUBZERO
LOWS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY EVEN MINUS DOUBLE DIGIT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN ZONES NORTH THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTY. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
UP DUE TO CONTINUING GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH TO
THE WEST AND THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER BUT MAY ACT TO
LIMIT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TO REALLY EXTREME VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LE BAND WILL LINGER IN THE SYR/RME CORRIDOR AND BRING OCNL IFR
CONDS INTO THU. BAND IS XPCTD TO GRADUALLY SLIP SOPUTH AND WILL
BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO ITH ANBD BGM LTR IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL ERODE THE LAKE EFFECT LVG GNRL
VFR CONDS TO ALL STATIONS AFT 00Z. GUSTY WEST WNDS TODAY WILL
BECOME LGTR AFT SUNSET THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU NGT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND TIME
AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

MON...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM/PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 110820
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.

WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
430 PM UPDATE...
MAIN ATTENTION TURNS TO A SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR...THE
COLDEST SINCE LAST WINTER...WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS BY SATURDAY.

BEFORE THAT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE WARNING ZONES...BUT OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BACK WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...WHICH WILL DIMINISH AND
SHIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EAST
ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA AND DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THE FRONT LOOKS PRIMED TO PICK UP GREAT
LAKES MOISTURE AS IT DROPS. IT LOOKS QUITE PROBABLE THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY STOUT SNOW SQUALL FRIDAY EVENING.
WHILE IT MAY ONLY PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION...IT
WILL LIKELY COME DOWN VERY ABRUPTLY.

FORECAST MODELS IN GREAT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON 500 MB TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 490 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-30 C...ABOUT AS COLD AS IS SEEN AROUND HERE. VERY RUDE AWAKENING
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WIND CHILLS ALREADY WELL BELOW ZERO...AND
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS AND FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY. WIND CHILLS TEENS-20S BELOW ZERO ARE FIGURED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME PLACES EVEN COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT. UNPROTECTED
VULNERABLE PLUMBING MAY EXPERIENCE FREEZING/BREAKING...AND ANYONE
NOT TAKING PROPER PRECAUTIONS OUTSIDE COULD EXPERIENCE FROSTBITE
HYPOTHERMIA. THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL ACTUALLY CRASH TO THE GROUND IN THIS
ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO LAKE EFFECT WILL BE LIMITED YET DRY FLUFFY
FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED OUT OF JUST ABOUT ANY CLOUD.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SUBZERO
LOWS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY EVEN MINUS DOUBLE DIGIT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN ZONES NORTH THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTY. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
UP DUE TO CONTINUING GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH TO
THE WEST AND THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER BUT MAY ACT TO
LIMIT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TO REALLY EXTREME VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LE BAND WILL LINGER IN THE SYR/RME CORRIDOR AND BRING OCNL IFR
CONDS INTO THU. BAND IS XPCTD TO GRADUALLY SLIP SOPUTH AND WILL
BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO ITH ANBD BGM LTR IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL ERODE THE LAKE EFFECT LVG GNRL
VFR CONDS TO ALL STATIONS AFT 00Z. GUSTY WEST WNDS TODAY WILL
BECOME LGTR AFT SUNSET THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU NGT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND TIME
AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

MON...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM/PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 110535
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1235 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LAKE ENHANCED BAND HAS DEVELOPED ON THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND IS NOW SHOOTING ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY THROUGH CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES WHICH
ALONG WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES IS PRODUCING SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...AND EVEN OCCASIONAL
FLURRIES INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY OF PA. ANOTHER CONVERGENCE
BAND HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST PA-WESTERN NY...WHICH WILL CARRY
A BRIEF SQUALL ACROSS SOME OF THE TWIN TIERS LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. IT WILL NOT LAST LONG...BUT UP TO A QUICK INCH OF SNOW
COULD RESULT ALONG WITH VISIBILITY UNDER A MILE.

UP TO NOW...MOST LIFT HAS BEEN UNDER THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
THAT CHANGES WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES AS
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES 290-300. LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ABLE TO
ORGANIZE MORE...TO FOCUS ESPECIALLY ON NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
ONONDAGA...MOST OF MADISON...AND WESTERN TO SOUTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTIES WITH HEAVIER BANDS PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
WINDS ARE ALSO GOING TO PICK UP THURSDAY...INTO 10-20 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK IN THE
TEENS...AND THE SNOW WILL BE DRY AND FLUFFY...VERY PRONE TO
BLOWING AND DRIFTING. ALL TOLD...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE
WARNING COUNTIES TO RANGE FROM 6-12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WHERE BANDS ARE MOST PERSISTENT. NORTHEASTERN ONEIDA
COUNTY WILL LIKELY HAVE QUITE A BIT LESS COMPARED TO THE REST OF
THE WARNING AREA. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY AREA EITHER...BASICALLY
THE ZONES IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARNING COUNTIES...FOR
WIDE RANGING SNOW AMOUNTS /GENERALLY 3 TO 7 INCHES...HIGHEST
NORTH/. AND BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
430 PM UPDATE...
MAIN ATTENTION TURNS TO A SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR...THE
COLDEST SINCE LAST WINTER...WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS BY SATURDAY.

BEFORE THAT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE WARNING ZONES...BUT OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BACK WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...WHICH WILL DIMINISH AND
SHIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EAST
ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA AND DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THE FRONT LOOKS PRIMED TO PICK UP GREAT
LAKES MOISTURE AS IT DROPS. IT LOOKS QUITE PROBABLE THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY STOUT SNOW SQUALL FRIDAY EVENING.
WHILE IT MAY ONLY PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION...IT
WILL LIKELY COME DOWN VERY ABRUPTLY.

FORECAST MODELS IN GREAT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON 500 MB TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 490 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-30 C...ABOUT AS COLD AS IS SEEN AROUND HERE. VERY RUDE AWAKENING
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WIND CHILLS ALREADY WELL BELOW ZERO...AND
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS AND FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY. WIND CHILLS TEENS-20S BELOW ZERO ARE FIGURED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME PLACES EVEN COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT. UNPROTECTED
VULNERABLE PLUMBING MAY EXPERIENCE FREEZING/BREAKING...AND ANYONE
NOT TAKING PROPER PRECAUTIONS OUTSIDE COULD EXPERIENCE FROSTBITE
HYPOTHERMIA. THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL ACTUALLY CRASH TO THE GROUND IN THIS
ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO LAKE EFFECT WILL BE LIMITED YET DRY FLUFFY
FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED OUT OF JUST ABOUT ANY CLOUD.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SUBZERO
LOWS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY EVEN MINUS DOUBLE DIGIT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN ZONES NORTH THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTY. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
UP DUE TO CONTINUING GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH TO
THE WEST AND THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER BUT MAY ACT TO
LIMIT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TO REALLY EXTREME VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LE BAND WILL LINGER IN THE SYR/RME CORRIDOR AND BRING OCNL IFR
CONDS INTO THU. BAND IS XPCTD TO GRADUALLY SLIP SOPUTH AND WILL
BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO ITH ANBD BGM LTR IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL ERODE THE LAKE EFFECT LVG GNRL
VFR CONDS TO ALL STATIONS AFT 00Z. GUSTY WEST WNDS TODAY WILL
BECOME LGTR AFT SUNSET THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU NGT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND TIME
AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

MON...VFR.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM/PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 110535
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1235 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LAKE ENHANCED BAND HAS DEVELOPED ON THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND IS NOW SHOOTING ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY THROUGH CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES WHICH
ALONG WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES IS PRODUCING SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...AND EVEN OCCASIONAL
FLURRIES INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY OF PA. ANOTHER CONVERGENCE
BAND HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST PA-WESTERN NY...WHICH WILL CARRY
A BRIEF SQUALL ACROSS SOME OF THE TWIN TIERS LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. IT WILL NOT LAST LONG...BUT UP TO A QUICK INCH OF SNOW
COULD RESULT ALONG WITH VISIBILITY UNDER A MILE.

UP TO NOW...MOST LIFT HAS BEEN UNDER THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
THAT CHANGES WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES AS
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES 290-300. LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ABLE TO
ORGANIZE MORE...TO FOCUS ESPECIALLY ON NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
ONONDAGA...MOST OF MADISON...AND WESTERN TO SOUTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTIES WITH HEAVIER BANDS PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
WINDS ARE ALSO GOING TO PICK UP THURSDAY...INTO 10-20 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK IN THE
TEENS...AND THE SNOW WILL BE DRY AND FLUFFY...VERY PRONE TO
BLOWING AND DRIFTING. ALL TOLD...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE
WARNING COUNTIES TO RANGE FROM 6-12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WHERE BANDS ARE MOST PERSISTENT. NORTHEASTERN ONEIDA
COUNTY WILL LIKELY HAVE QUITE A BIT LESS COMPARED TO THE REST OF
THE WARNING AREA. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY AREA EITHER...BASICALLY
THE ZONES IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARNING COUNTIES...FOR
WIDE RANGING SNOW AMOUNTS /GENERALLY 3 TO 7 INCHES...HIGHEST
NORTH/. AND BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
430 PM UPDATE...
MAIN ATTENTION TURNS TO A SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR...THE
COLDEST SINCE LAST WINTER...WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS BY SATURDAY.

BEFORE THAT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE WARNING ZONES...BUT OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BACK WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...WHICH WILL DIMINISH AND
SHIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EAST
ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA AND DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THE FRONT LOOKS PRIMED TO PICK UP GREAT
LAKES MOISTURE AS IT DROPS. IT LOOKS QUITE PROBABLE THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY STOUT SNOW SQUALL FRIDAY EVENING.
WHILE IT MAY ONLY PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION...IT
WILL LIKELY COME DOWN VERY ABRUPTLY.

FORECAST MODELS IN GREAT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON 500 MB TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 490 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-30 C...ABOUT AS COLD AS IS SEEN AROUND HERE. VERY RUDE AWAKENING
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WIND CHILLS ALREADY WELL BELOW ZERO...AND
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS AND FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY. WIND CHILLS TEENS-20S BELOW ZERO ARE FIGURED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME PLACES EVEN COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT. UNPROTECTED
VULNERABLE PLUMBING MAY EXPERIENCE FREEZING/BREAKING...AND ANYONE
NOT TAKING PROPER PRECAUTIONS OUTSIDE COULD EXPERIENCE FROSTBITE
HYPOTHERMIA. THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL ACTUALLY CRASH TO THE GROUND IN THIS
ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO LAKE EFFECT WILL BE LIMITED YET DRY FLUFFY
FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED OUT OF JUST ABOUT ANY CLOUD.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SUBZERO
LOWS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY EVEN MINUS DOUBLE DIGIT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN ZONES NORTH THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTY. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
UP DUE TO CONTINUING GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH TO
THE WEST AND THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER BUT MAY ACT TO
LIMIT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TO REALLY EXTREME VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LE BAND WILL LINGER IN THE SYR/RME CORRIDOR AND BRING OCNL IFR
CONDS INTO THU. BAND IS XPCTD TO GRADUALLY SLIP SOPUTH AND WILL
BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO ITH ANBD BGM LTR IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL ERODE THE LAKE EFFECT LVG GNRL
VFR CONDS TO ALL STATIONS AFT 00Z. GUSTY WEST WNDS TODAY WILL
BECOME LGTR AFT SUNSET THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU NGT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND TIME
AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

MON...VFR.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM/PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 110535
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1235 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LAKE ENHANCED BAND HAS DEVELOPED ON THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND IS NOW SHOOTING ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY THROUGH CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES WHICH
ALONG WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES IS PRODUCING SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...AND EVEN OCCASIONAL
FLURRIES INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY OF PA. ANOTHER CONVERGENCE
BAND HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST PA-WESTERN NY...WHICH WILL CARRY
A BRIEF SQUALL ACROSS SOME OF THE TWIN TIERS LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. IT WILL NOT LAST LONG...BUT UP TO A QUICK INCH OF SNOW
COULD RESULT ALONG WITH VISIBILITY UNDER A MILE.

UP TO NOW...MOST LIFT HAS BEEN UNDER THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
THAT CHANGES WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES AS
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES 290-300. LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ABLE TO
ORGANIZE MORE...TO FOCUS ESPECIALLY ON NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
ONONDAGA...MOST OF MADISON...AND WESTERN TO SOUTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTIES WITH HEAVIER BANDS PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
WINDS ARE ALSO GOING TO PICK UP THURSDAY...INTO 10-20 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK IN THE
TEENS...AND THE SNOW WILL BE DRY AND FLUFFY...VERY PRONE TO
BLOWING AND DRIFTING. ALL TOLD...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE
WARNING COUNTIES TO RANGE FROM 6-12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WHERE BANDS ARE MOST PERSISTENT. NORTHEASTERN ONEIDA
COUNTY WILL LIKELY HAVE QUITE A BIT LESS COMPARED TO THE REST OF
THE WARNING AREA. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY AREA EITHER...BASICALLY
THE ZONES IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARNING COUNTIES...FOR
WIDE RANGING SNOW AMOUNTS /GENERALLY 3 TO 7 INCHES...HIGHEST
NORTH/. AND BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
430 PM UPDATE...
MAIN ATTENTION TURNS TO A SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR...THE
COLDEST SINCE LAST WINTER...WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS BY SATURDAY.

BEFORE THAT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE WARNING ZONES...BUT OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BACK WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...WHICH WILL DIMINISH AND
SHIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EAST
ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA AND DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THE FRONT LOOKS PRIMED TO PICK UP GREAT
LAKES MOISTURE AS IT DROPS. IT LOOKS QUITE PROBABLE THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY STOUT SNOW SQUALL FRIDAY EVENING.
WHILE IT MAY ONLY PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION...IT
WILL LIKELY COME DOWN VERY ABRUPTLY.

FORECAST MODELS IN GREAT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON 500 MB TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 490 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-30 C...ABOUT AS COLD AS IS SEEN AROUND HERE. VERY RUDE AWAKENING
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WIND CHILLS ALREADY WELL BELOW ZERO...AND
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS AND FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY. WIND CHILLS TEENS-20S BELOW ZERO ARE FIGURED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME PLACES EVEN COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT. UNPROTECTED
VULNERABLE PLUMBING MAY EXPERIENCE FREEZING/BREAKING...AND ANYONE
NOT TAKING PROPER PRECAUTIONS OUTSIDE COULD EXPERIENCE FROSTBITE
HYPOTHERMIA. THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL ACTUALLY CRASH TO THE GROUND IN THIS
ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO LAKE EFFECT WILL BE LIMITED YET DRY FLUFFY
FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED OUT OF JUST ABOUT ANY CLOUD.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SUBZERO
LOWS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY EVEN MINUS DOUBLE DIGIT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN ZONES NORTH THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTY. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
UP DUE TO CONTINUING GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH TO
THE WEST AND THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER BUT MAY ACT TO
LIMIT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TO REALLY EXTREME VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LE BAND WILL LINGER IN THE SYR/RME CORRIDOR AND BRING OCNL IFR
CONDS INTO THU. BAND IS XPCTD TO GRADUALLY SLIP SOPUTH AND WILL
BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO ITH ANBD BGM LTR IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL ERODE THE LAKE EFFECT LVG GNRL
VFR CONDS TO ALL STATIONS AFT 00Z. GUSTY WEST WNDS TODAY WILL
BECOME LGTR AFT SUNSET THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU NGT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND TIME
AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

MON...VFR.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 110004
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
704 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LAKE ENHANCED BAND HAS DEVELOPED ON THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND IS NOW SHOOTING ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY THROUGH CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES WHICH
ALONG WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES IS PRODUCING SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...AND EVEN OCCASIONAL
FLURRIES INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY OF PA. ANOTHER CONVERGENCE
BAND HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST PA-WESTERN NY...WHICH WILL CARRY
A BRIEF SQUALL ACROSS SOME OF THE TWIN TIERS LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. IT WILL NOT LAST LONG...BUT UP TO A QUICK INCH OF SNOW
COULD RESULT ALONG WITH VISIBILITY UNDER A MILE.

UP TO NOW...MOST LIFT HAS BEEN UNDER THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
THAT CHANGES WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES AS
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES 290-300. LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ABLE TO
ORGANIZE MORE...TO FOCUS ESPECIALLY ON NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
ONONDAGA...MOST OF MADISON...AND WESTERN TO SOUTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTIES WITH HEAVIER BANDS PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
WINDS ARE ALSO GOING TO PICK UP THURSDAY...INTO 10-20 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK IN THE
TEENS...AND THE SNOW WILL BE DRY AND FLUFFY...VERY PRONE TO
BLOWING AND DRIFTING. ALL TOLD...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE
WARNING COUNTIES TO RANGE FROM 6-12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WHERE BANDS ARE MOST PERSISTENT. NORTHEASTERN ONEIDA
COUNTY WILL LIKELY HAVE QUITE A BIT LESS COMPARED TO THE REST OF
THE WARNING AREA. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY AREA EITHER...BASICALLY
THE ZONES IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARNING COUNTIES...FOR
WIDE RANGING SNOW AMOUNTS /GENERALLY 3 TO 7 INCHES...HIGHEST
NORTH/. AND BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
430 PM UPDATE...
MAIN ATTENTION TURNS TO A SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR...THE
COLDEST SINCE LAST WINTER...WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS BY SATURDAY.

BEFORE THAT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE WARNING ZONES...BUT OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BACK WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...WHICH WILL DIMINISH AND
SHIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EAST
ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA AND DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THE FRONT LOOKS PRIMED TO PICK UP GREAT
LAKES MOISTURE AS IT DROPS. IT LOOKS QUITE PROBABLE THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY STOUT SNOW SQUALL FRIDAY EVENING.
WHILE IT MAY ONLY PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION...IT
WILL LIKELY COME DOWN VERY ABRUPTLY.

FORECAST MODELS IN GREAT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON 500 MB TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 490 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-30 C...ABOUT AS COLD AS IS SEEN AROUND HERE. VERY RUDE AWAKENING
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WIND CHILLS ALREADY WELL BELOW ZERO...AND
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS AND FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY. WIND CHILLS TEENS-20S BELOW ZERO ARE FIGURED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME PLACES EVEN COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT. UNPROTECTED
VULNERABLE PLUMBING MAY EXPERIENCE FREEZING/BREAKING...AND ANYONE
NOT TAKING PROPER PRECAUTIONS OUTSIDE COULD EXPERIENCE FROSTBITE
HYPOTHERMIA. THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL ACTUALLY CRASH TO THE GROUND IN THIS
ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO LAKE EFFECT WILL BE LIMITED YET DRY FLUFFY
FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED OUT OF JUST ABOUT ANY CLOUD.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SUBZERO
LOWS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY EVEN MINUS DOUBLE DIGIT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN ZONES NORTH THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTY. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
UP DUE TO CONTINUING GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH TO
THE WEST AND THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER BUT MAY ACT TO
LIMIT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TO REALLY EXTREME VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST IMPACTED SITES BEING KRME/KSYR. AS OF
EARLY THIS EVENING, MAIN BAND HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF KRME BUT EXPECT
IT TO MIGRATE SOUTH AGAIN THROUGH THE EVENING BRINGING A PERIOD OF
BELOW ALT MIN IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN FOR KRME...AND EVENTUALLY
IMPACTING KSYR WITH BELOW ALT MIN IFR VISBYS BY LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EXPECT SOME
CONTINUING WAFFLING OF THE BAND NORTH/SOUTH RESULTING IN
FLUCTUATING CONDITIONS FOR THESE SITES BUT GENERAL TREND HEADING
INTO THURSDAY WILL FOR FLOW TO BE MORE NW WITH THE GREATEST
IMPACTS BEING FOR KSYR WHERE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE QUITE HEAVY AT
TIMES.

FOR THE REMAINING FOUR SITES TO THE SOUTH, SOME SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING BELOW ALT MIN IFR VISBYS AT TIMES EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
KELM/KBGM BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY MOVES OUT BY MID EVENING. OTHERWISE
PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS FOR KITH/KELM/KBGM THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
SHOULD BE MVFR CIGS AND VFR VISBYS IN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE NW BY LATER THURSDAY CHANCES FOR VIS
RESTRICTIONS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FOR KBGM AND ESPECIALLY KITH.
FINALLY LAKE EFFECT SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY IMPACT ON KAVP WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

WINDS REMAIN W/NW GENERALLY 8-13 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT
TIMES TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR THESE WINDS TO
VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NW THURSDAY AND REMAIN BRISK.


.OUTLOOK...

THURS NGT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND
TIME AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ016-
     017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...ABS/PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 110004
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
704 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LAKE ENHANCED BAND HAS DEVELOPED ON THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND IS NOW SHOOTING ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY THROUGH CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES WHICH
ALONG WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES IS PRODUCING SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...AND EVEN OCCASIONAL
FLURRIES INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY OF PA. ANOTHER CONVERGENCE
BAND HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST PA-WESTERN NY...WHICH WILL CARRY
A BRIEF SQUALL ACROSS SOME OF THE TWIN TIERS LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. IT WILL NOT LAST LONG...BUT UP TO A QUICK INCH OF SNOW
COULD RESULT ALONG WITH VISIBILITY UNDER A MILE.

UP TO NOW...MOST LIFT HAS BEEN UNDER THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
THAT CHANGES WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES AS
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES 290-300. LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ABLE TO
ORGANIZE MORE...TO FOCUS ESPECIALLY ON NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
ONONDAGA...MOST OF MADISON...AND WESTERN TO SOUTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTIES WITH HEAVIER BANDS PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
WINDS ARE ALSO GOING TO PICK UP THURSDAY...INTO 10-20 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK IN THE
TEENS...AND THE SNOW WILL BE DRY AND FLUFFY...VERY PRONE TO
BLOWING AND DRIFTING. ALL TOLD...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE
WARNING COUNTIES TO RANGE FROM 6-12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WHERE BANDS ARE MOST PERSISTENT. NORTHEASTERN ONEIDA
COUNTY WILL LIKELY HAVE QUITE A BIT LESS COMPARED TO THE REST OF
THE WARNING AREA. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY AREA EITHER...BASICALLY
THE ZONES IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARNING COUNTIES...FOR
WIDE RANGING SNOW AMOUNTS /GENERALLY 3 TO 7 INCHES...HIGHEST
NORTH/. AND BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
430 PM UPDATE...
MAIN ATTENTION TURNS TO A SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR...THE
COLDEST SINCE LAST WINTER...WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS BY SATURDAY.

BEFORE THAT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE WARNING ZONES...BUT OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BACK WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...WHICH WILL DIMINISH AND
SHIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EAST
ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA AND DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THE FRONT LOOKS PRIMED TO PICK UP GREAT
LAKES MOISTURE AS IT DROPS. IT LOOKS QUITE PROBABLE THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY STOUT SNOW SQUALL FRIDAY EVENING.
WHILE IT MAY ONLY PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION...IT
WILL LIKELY COME DOWN VERY ABRUPTLY.

FORECAST MODELS IN GREAT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON 500 MB TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 490 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-30 C...ABOUT AS COLD AS IS SEEN AROUND HERE. VERY RUDE AWAKENING
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WIND CHILLS ALREADY WELL BELOW ZERO...AND
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS AND FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY. WIND CHILLS TEENS-20S BELOW ZERO ARE FIGURED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME PLACES EVEN COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT. UNPROTECTED
VULNERABLE PLUMBING MAY EXPERIENCE FREEZING/BREAKING...AND ANYONE
NOT TAKING PROPER PRECAUTIONS OUTSIDE COULD EXPERIENCE FROSTBITE
HYPOTHERMIA. THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL ACTUALLY CRASH TO THE GROUND IN THIS
ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO LAKE EFFECT WILL BE LIMITED YET DRY FLUFFY
FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED OUT OF JUST ABOUT ANY CLOUD.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SUBZERO
LOWS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY EVEN MINUS DOUBLE DIGIT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN ZONES NORTH THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTY. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
UP DUE TO CONTINUING GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH TO
THE WEST AND THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER BUT MAY ACT TO
LIMIT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TO REALLY EXTREME VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST IMPACTED SITES BEING KRME/KSYR. AS OF
EARLY THIS EVENING, MAIN BAND HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF KRME BUT EXPECT
IT TO MIGRATE SOUTH AGAIN THROUGH THE EVENING BRINGING A PERIOD OF
BELOW ALT MIN IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN FOR KRME...AND EVENTUALLY
IMPACTING KSYR WITH BELOW ALT MIN IFR VISBYS BY LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EXPECT SOME
CONTINUING WAFFLING OF THE BAND NORTH/SOUTH RESULTING IN
FLUCTUATING CONDITIONS FOR THESE SITES BUT GENERAL TREND HEADING
INTO THURSDAY WILL FOR FLOW TO BE MORE NW WITH THE GREATEST
IMPACTS BEING FOR KSYR WHERE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE QUITE HEAVY AT
TIMES.

FOR THE REMAINING FOUR SITES TO THE SOUTH, SOME SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING BELOW ALT MIN IFR VISBYS AT TIMES EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
KELM/KBGM BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY MOVES OUT BY MID EVENING. OTHERWISE
PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS FOR KITH/KELM/KBGM THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
SHOULD BE MVFR CIGS AND VFR VISBYS IN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE NW BY LATER THURSDAY CHANCES FOR VIS
RESTRICTIONS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FOR KBGM AND ESPECIALLY KITH.
FINALLY LAKE EFFECT SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY IMPACT ON KAVP WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

WINDS REMAIN W/NW GENERALLY 8-13 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT
TIMES TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR THESE WINDS TO
VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NW THURSDAY AND REMAIN BRISK.


.OUTLOOK...

THURS NGT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND
TIME AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ016-
     017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...ABS/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 110004
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
704 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LAKE ENHANCED BAND HAS DEVELOPED ON THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND IS NOW SHOOTING ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY THROUGH CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES WHICH
ALONG WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES IS PRODUCING SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...AND EVEN OCCASIONAL
FLURRIES INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY OF PA. ANOTHER CONVERGENCE
BAND HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST PA-WESTERN NY...WHICH WILL CARRY
A BRIEF SQUALL ACROSS SOME OF THE TWIN TIERS LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. IT WILL NOT LAST LONG...BUT UP TO A QUICK INCH OF SNOW
COULD RESULT ALONG WITH VISIBILITY UNDER A MILE.

UP TO NOW...MOST LIFT HAS BEEN UNDER THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
THAT CHANGES WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES AS
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES 290-300. LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ABLE TO
ORGANIZE MORE...TO FOCUS ESPECIALLY ON NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
ONONDAGA...MOST OF MADISON...AND WESTERN TO SOUTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTIES WITH HEAVIER BANDS PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
WINDS ARE ALSO GOING TO PICK UP THURSDAY...INTO 10-20 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK IN THE
TEENS...AND THE SNOW WILL BE DRY AND FLUFFY...VERY PRONE TO
BLOWING AND DRIFTING. ALL TOLD...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE
WARNING COUNTIES TO RANGE FROM 6-12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WHERE BANDS ARE MOST PERSISTENT. NORTHEASTERN ONEIDA
COUNTY WILL LIKELY HAVE QUITE A BIT LESS COMPARED TO THE REST OF
THE WARNING AREA. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY AREA EITHER...BASICALLY
THE ZONES IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARNING COUNTIES...FOR
WIDE RANGING SNOW AMOUNTS /GENERALLY 3 TO 7 INCHES...HIGHEST
NORTH/. AND BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
430 PM UPDATE...
MAIN ATTENTION TURNS TO A SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR...THE
COLDEST SINCE LAST WINTER...WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS BY SATURDAY.

BEFORE THAT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE WARNING ZONES...BUT OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BACK WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...WHICH WILL DIMINISH AND
SHIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EAST
ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA AND DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THE FRONT LOOKS PRIMED TO PICK UP GREAT
LAKES MOISTURE AS IT DROPS. IT LOOKS QUITE PROBABLE THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY STOUT SNOW SQUALL FRIDAY EVENING.
WHILE IT MAY ONLY PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION...IT
WILL LIKELY COME DOWN VERY ABRUPTLY.

FORECAST MODELS IN GREAT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON 500 MB TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 490 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-30 C...ABOUT AS COLD AS IS SEEN AROUND HERE. VERY RUDE AWAKENING
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WIND CHILLS ALREADY WELL BELOW ZERO...AND
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS AND FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY. WIND CHILLS TEENS-20S BELOW ZERO ARE FIGURED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME PLACES EVEN COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT. UNPROTECTED
VULNERABLE PLUMBING MAY EXPERIENCE FREEZING/BREAKING...AND ANYONE
NOT TAKING PROPER PRECAUTIONS OUTSIDE COULD EXPERIENCE FROSTBITE
HYPOTHERMIA. THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL ACTUALLY CRASH TO THE GROUND IN THIS
ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO LAKE EFFECT WILL BE LIMITED YET DRY FLUFFY
FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED OUT OF JUST ABOUT ANY CLOUD.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SUBZERO
LOWS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY EVEN MINUS DOUBLE DIGIT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN ZONES NORTH THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTY. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
UP DUE TO CONTINUING GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH TO
THE WEST AND THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER BUT MAY ACT TO
LIMIT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TO REALLY EXTREME VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST IMPACTED SITES BEING KRME/KSYR. AS OF
EARLY THIS EVENING, MAIN BAND HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF KRME BUT EXPECT
IT TO MIGRATE SOUTH AGAIN THROUGH THE EVENING BRINGING A PERIOD OF
BELOW ALT MIN IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN FOR KRME...AND EVENTUALLY
IMPACTING KSYR WITH BELOW ALT MIN IFR VISBYS BY LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EXPECT SOME
CONTINUING WAFFLING OF THE BAND NORTH/SOUTH RESULTING IN
FLUCTUATING CONDITIONS FOR THESE SITES BUT GENERAL TREND HEADING
INTO THURSDAY WILL FOR FLOW TO BE MORE NW WITH THE GREATEST
IMPACTS BEING FOR KSYR WHERE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE QUITE HEAVY AT
TIMES.

FOR THE REMAINING FOUR SITES TO THE SOUTH, SOME SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING BELOW ALT MIN IFR VISBYS AT TIMES EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
KELM/KBGM BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY MOVES OUT BY MID EVENING. OTHERWISE
PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS FOR KITH/KELM/KBGM THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
SHOULD BE MVFR CIGS AND VFR VISBYS IN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE NW BY LATER THURSDAY CHANCES FOR VIS
RESTRICTIONS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FOR KBGM AND ESPECIALLY KITH.
FINALLY LAKE EFFECT SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY IMPACT ON KAVP WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

WINDS REMAIN W/NW GENERALLY 8-13 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT
TIMES TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR THESE WINDS TO
VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NW THURSDAY AND REMAIN BRISK.


.OUTLOOK...

THURS NGT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND
TIME AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ016-
     017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...ABS/PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 102134
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
434 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LAKE ENHANCED BAND HAS DEVELOPED ON THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND IS NOW SHOOTING ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY THROUGH CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES WHICH
ALONG WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES IS PRODUCING SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...AND EVEN OCCASIONAL
FLURRIES INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY OF PA. ANOTHER CONVERGENCE
BAND HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST PA-WESTERN NY...WHICH WILL CARRY
A BRIEF SQUALL ACROSS SOME OF THE TWIN TIERS LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. IT WILL NOT LAST LONG...BUT UP TO A QUICK INCH OF SNOW
COULD RESULT ALONG WITH VISIBILITY UNDER A MILE.

UP TO NOW...MOST LIFT HAS BEEN UNDER THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
THAT CHANGES WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES AS
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES 290-300. LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ABLE TO
ORGANIZE MORE...TO FOCUS ESPECIALLY ON NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
ONONDAGA...MOST OF MADISON...AND WESTERN TO SOUTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTIES WITH HEAVIER BANDS PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
WINDS ARE ALSO GOING TO PICK UP THURSDAY...INTO 10-20 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK IN THE
TEENS...AND THE SNOW WILL BE DRY AND FLUFFY...VERY PRONE TO
BLOWING AND DRIFTING. ALL TOLD...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE
WARNING COUNTIES TO RANGE FROM 6-12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WHERE BANDS ARE MOST PERSISTENT. NORTHEASTERN ONEIDA
COUNTY WILL LIKELY HAVE QUITE A BIT LESS COMPARED TO THE REST OF
THE WARNING AREA. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY AREA EITHER...BASICALLY
THE ZONES IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARNING COUNTIES...FOR
WIDE RANGING SNOW AMOUNTS /GENERALLY 3 TO 7 INCHES...HIGHEST
NORTH/. AND BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
430 PM UPDATE...
MAIN ATTENTION TURNS TO A SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR...THE
COLDEST SINCE LAST WINTER...WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS BY SATURDAY.

BEFORE THAT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE WARNING ZONES...BUT OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BACK WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...WHICH WILL DIMINISH AND
SHIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EAST
ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA AND DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THE FRONT LOOKS PRIMED TO PICK UP GREAT
LAKES MOISTURE AS IT DROPS. IT LOOKS QUITE PROBABLE THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY STOUT SNOW SQUALL FRIDAY EVENING.
WHILE IT MAY ONLY PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION...IT
WILL LIKELY COME DOWN VERY ABRUPTLY.

FORECAST MODELS IN GREAT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON 500 MB TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 490 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-30 C...ABOUT AS COLD AS IS SEEN AROUND HERE. VERY RUDE AWAKENING
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WIND CHILLS ALREADY WELL BELOW ZERO...AND
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS AND FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY. WIND CHILLS TEENS-20S BELOW ZERO ARE FIGURED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME PLACES EVEN COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT. UNPROTECTED
VULNERABLE PLUMBING MAY EXPERIENCE FREEZING/BREAKING...AND ANYONE
NOT TAKING PROPER PRECAUTIONS OUTSIDE COULD EXPERIENCE FROSTBITE
HYPOTHERMIA. THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL ACTUALLY CRASH TO THE GROUND IN THIS
ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO LAKE EFFECT WILL BE LIMITED YET DRY FLUFFY
FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED OUT OF JUST ABOUT ANY CLOUD.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SUBZERO
LOWS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY EVEN MINUS DOUBLE DIGIT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN ZONES NORTH THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTY. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
UP DUE TO CONTINUING GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH TO
THE WEST AND THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER BUT MAY ACT TO
LIMIT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TO REALLY EXTREME VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHEST IMPACTED TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE KSYR AND KRME.
GENERAL SNOW SHOWERS HERE WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS EVENING, STEADIER
AND MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHER SITES WILL SEE SOME MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT
TIMES WITH -SHSN BUT THINK THOSE PERIODS WILL BE SHORT AND HAVE
NOT ADDED THE TEMPOS FOR THESE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AT MUCH OF THE OTHER SITES. AFTER 03-06Z WEST NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ALIGN ENOUGH TO FAVOR A LONG DURATION, LONG
EFFECT SNOW EVENT FROM NEAR KRME, TO OVER KSYR. IFR VSBYS VERY
LIKELY, WITH AIRPORT MINS POSSIBLE AT KSYR THROUGH PARTS TO MAYBE
EVEN MUCH OF THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE MVFR TO VFR CIGS WITH MODERATE
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES THAT SHOULD NOT REALLY LIMIT VSBY MUCH
FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.


.OUTLOOK...

THURS THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND TIME
AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ016-
     017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...ABS





000
FXUS61 KBGM 102134
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
434 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LAKE ENHANCED BAND HAS DEVELOPED ON THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND IS NOW SHOOTING ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY THROUGH CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES WHICH
ALONG WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES IS PRODUCING SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...AND EVEN OCCASIONAL
FLURRIES INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY OF PA. ANOTHER CONVERGENCE
BAND HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST PA-WESTERN NY...WHICH WILL CARRY
A BRIEF SQUALL ACROSS SOME OF THE TWIN TIERS LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. IT WILL NOT LAST LONG...BUT UP TO A QUICK INCH OF SNOW
COULD RESULT ALONG WITH VISIBILITY UNDER A MILE.

UP TO NOW...MOST LIFT HAS BEEN UNDER THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
THAT CHANGES WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES AS
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES 290-300. LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ABLE TO
ORGANIZE MORE...TO FOCUS ESPECIALLY ON NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
ONONDAGA...MOST OF MADISON...AND WESTERN TO SOUTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTIES WITH HEAVIER BANDS PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
WINDS ARE ALSO GOING TO PICK UP THURSDAY...INTO 10-20 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK IN THE
TEENS...AND THE SNOW WILL BE DRY AND FLUFFY...VERY PRONE TO
BLOWING AND DRIFTING. ALL TOLD...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE
WARNING COUNTIES TO RANGE FROM 6-12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WHERE BANDS ARE MOST PERSISTENT. NORTHEASTERN ONEIDA
COUNTY WILL LIKELY HAVE QUITE A BIT LESS COMPARED TO THE REST OF
THE WARNING AREA. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY AREA EITHER...BASICALLY
THE ZONES IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARNING COUNTIES...FOR
WIDE RANGING SNOW AMOUNTS /GENERALLY 3 TO 7 INCHES...HIGHEST
NORTH/. AND BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
430 PM UPDATE...
MAIN ATTENTION TURNS TO A SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR...THE
COLDEST SINCE LAST WINTER...WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS BY SATURDAY.

BEFORE THAT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE WARNING ZONES...BUT OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BACK WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...WHICH WILL DIMINISH AND
SHIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EAST
ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA AND DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THE FRONT LOOKS PRIMED TO PICK UP GREAT
LAKES MOISTURE AS IT DROPS. IT LOOKS QUITE PROBABLE THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY STOUT SNOW SQUALL FRIDAY EVENING.
WHILE IT MAY ONLY PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION...IT
WILL LIKELY COME DOWN VERY ABRUPTLY.

FORECAST MODELS IN GREAT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON 500 MB TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 490 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-30 C...ABOUT AS COLD AS IS SEEN AROUND HERE. VERY RUDE AWAKENING
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WIND CHILLS ALREADY WELL BELOW ZERO...AND
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS AND FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY. WIND CHILLS TEENS-20S BELOW ZERO ARE FIGURED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME PLACES EVEN COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT. UNPROTECTED
VULNERABLE PLUMBING MAY EXPERIENCE FREEZING/BREAKING...AND ANYONE
NOT TAKING PROPER PRECAUTIONS OUTSIDE COULD EXPERIENCE FROSTBITE
HYPOTHERMIA. THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL ACTUALLY CRASH TO THE GROUND IN THIS
ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO LAKE EFFECT WILL BE LIMITED YET DRY FLUFFY
FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED OUT OF JUST ABOUT ANY CLOUD.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SUBZERO
LOWS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY EVEN MINUS DOUBLE DIGIT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN ZONES NORTH THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTY. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
UP DUE TO CONTINUING GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH TO
THE WEST AND THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER BUT MAY ACT TO
LIMIT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TO REALLY EXTREME VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHEST IMPACTED TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE KSYR AND KRME.
GENERAL SNOW SHOWERS HERE WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS EVENING, STEADIER
AND MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHER SITES WILL SEE SOME MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT
TIMES WITH -SHSN BUT THINK THOSE PERIODS WILL BE SHORT AND HAVE
NOT ADDED THE TEMPOS FOR THESE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AT MUCH OF THE OTHER SITES. AFTER 03-06Z WEST NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ALIGN ENOUGH TO FAVOR A LONG DURATION, LONG
EFFECT SNOW EVENT FROM NEAR KRME, TO OVER KSYR. IFR VSBYS VERY
LIKELY, WITH AIRPORT MINS POSSIBLE AT KSYR THROUGH PARTS TO MAYBE
EVEN MUCH OF THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE MVFR TO VFR CIGS WITH MODERATE
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES THAT SHOULD NOT REALLY LIMIT VSBY MUCH
FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.


.OUTLOOK...

THURS THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND TIME
AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ016-
     017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...ABS




000
FXUS61 KBGM 102134
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
434 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LAKE ENHANCED BAND HAS DEVELOPED ON THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND IS NOW SHOOTING ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY THROUGH CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES WHICH
ALONG WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES IS PRODUCING SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...AND EVEN OCCASIONAL
FLURRIES INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY OF PA. ANOTHER CONVERGENCE
BAND HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST PA-WESTERN NY...WHICH WILL CARRY
A BRIEF SQUALL ACROSS SOME OF THE TWIN TIERS LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. IT WILL NOT LAST LONG...BUT UP TO A QUICK INCH OF SNOW
COULD RESULT ALONG WITH VISIBILITY UNDER A MILE.

UP TO NOW...MOST LIFT HAS BEEN UNDER THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
THAT CHANGES WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES AS
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES 290-300. LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ABLE TO
ORGANIZE MORE...TO FOCUS ESPECIALLY ON NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
ONONDAGA...MOST OF MADISON...AND WESTERN TO SOUTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTIES WITH HEAVIER BANDS PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
WINDS ARE ALSO GOING TO PICK UP THURSDAY...INTO 10-20 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK IN THE
TEENS...AND THE SNOW WILL BE DRY AND FLUFFY...VERY PRONE TO
BLOWING AND DRIFTING. ALL TOLD...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE
WARNING COUNTIES TO RANGE FROM 6-12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WHERE BANDS ARE MOST PERSISTENT. NORTHEASTERN ONEIDA
COUNTY WILL LIKELY HAVE QUITE A BIT LESS COMPARED TO THE REST OF
THE WARNING AREA. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY AREA EITHER...BASICALLY
THE ZONES IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARNING COUNTIES...FOR
WIDE RANGING SNOW AMOUNTS /GENERALLY 3 TO 7 INCHES...HIGHEST
NORTH/. AND BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
430 PM UPDATE...
MAIN ATTENTION TURNS TO A SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR...THE
COLDEST SINCE LAST WINTER...WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS BY SATURDAY.

BEFORE THAT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE WARNING ZONES...BUT OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BACK WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...WHICH WILL DIMINISH AND
SHIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EAST
ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA AND DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THE FRONT LOOKS PRIMED TO PICK UP GREAT
LAKES MOISTURE AS IT DROPS. IT LOOKS QUITE PROBABLE THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY STOUT SNOW SQUALL FRIDAY EVENING.
WHILE IT MAY ONLY PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION...IT
WILL LIKELY COME DOWN VERY ABRUPTLY.

FORECAST MODELS IN GREAT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON 500 MB TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS PROGGED TO ONLY BE AROUND 490 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-30 C...ABOUT AS COLD AS IS SEEN AROUND HERE. VERY RUDE AWAKENING
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WIND CHILLS ALREADY WELL BELOW ZERO...AND
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS AND FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY. WIND CHILLS TEENS-20S BELOW ZERO ARE FIGURED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME PLACES EVEN COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT. UNPROTECTED
VULNERABLE PLUMBING MAY EXPERIENCE FREEZING/BREAKING...AND ANYONE
NOT TAKING PROPER PRECAUTIONS OUTSIDE COULD EXPERIENCE FROSTBITE
HYPOTHERMIA. THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL ACTUALLY CRASH TO THE GROUND IN THIS
ARCTIC AIR MASS...SO LAKE EFFECT WILL BE LIMITED YET DRY FLUFFY
FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED OUT OF JUST ABOUT ANY CLOUD.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SUBZERO
LOWS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY EVEN MINUS DOUBLE DIGIT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN ZONES NORTH THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTY. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
UP DUE TO CONTINUING GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH TO
THE WEST AND THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER BUT MAY ACT TO
LIMIT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TO REALLY EXTREME VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHEST IMPACTED TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE KSYR AND KRME.
GENERAL SNOW SHOWERS HERE WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS EVENING, STEADIER
AND MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHER SITES WILL SEE SOME MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT
TIMES WITH -SHSN BUT THINK THOSE PERIODS WILL BE SHORT AND HAVE
NOT ADDED THE TEMPOS FOR THESE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AT MUCH OF THE OTHER SITES. AFTER 03-06Z WEST NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ALIGN ENOUGH TO FAVOR A LONG DURATION, LONG
EFFECT SNOW EVENT FROM NEAR KRME, TO OVER KSYR. IFR VSBYS VERY
LIKELY, WITH AIRPORT MINS POSSIBLE AT KSYR THROUGH PARTS TO MAYBE
EVEN MUCH OF THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE MVFR TO VFR CIGS WITH MODERATE
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES THAT SHOULD NOT REALLY LIMIT VSBY MUCH
FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.


.OUTLOOK...

THURS THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND TIME
AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ016-
     017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...ABS





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