000
FXUS61 KBGM 231414
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1014 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS THEN CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1010 AM UPDATE...
FCST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED
AT THE PRESENT TIME. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING AN AREA OF LIGHT
SHWRS WORKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BGM FCST AREA ON THE HEELS OF
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY WITH
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A NOTABLE DRY SLOT NOW ENTERING
WESTERN NY. SO FAR CURRENT ACTIVITY HAS DISPLAYED NO CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AND AS A RESULT...HAVE BACKED OFF THUNDER MENTION UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON.

MAIN CONCERN GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON REMAINS POSSIBLE SEVERE WX
DEVELOPMENT AS LONG ADVERTISED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THAT SAID...FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY
WEAKLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH MAY BE
A RESULT OF CURRENT CLOUD COVER ALOFT. THAT SAID...THE POTENTIAL
DOES EXIST FOR MODEL UNDERESTIMATION OF THIS AFTERNOON/S
INSTABILITY AS PERIODIC BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATER TODAY. THAT SAID...RUC AND LOCAL WRF BUFKIT AND AWIPS
PLAN VIEW FCSTS SHOW NEARLY 800 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF IF SOME CLEARING DOES MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THE OTHER THING THAT TODAY/S SETUP HAS GOING FOR IT IS
DECENT DYNAMICS ALOFT AS UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY AS A JETSTREAK STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION IN
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. CONSIDERING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE
ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE ARRIVING COLD FRONT...MAIN
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE LINEAR IN FASHION WITH STRONG WINDS
LIKELY BEING THE BIGGEST THREATS. OBVIOUSLY A LOT TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE MADE AS NEEDED. CURRENT THINKING IS TODAY/S
ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT THE
EARLIEST. REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM FCST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

545 AM UPDATE... A BAND OF -SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CONTS TO MARCH ACRS
THE CWA ATTM...LIKELY ASSOCD WITH AN UPR-LVL WAVE. WE EXPECT SHWRS
TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE RGN THROUGH 14-15Z...FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN
PCPN FOR MOST OF THIS AFTN.

ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMT OF CLOUD DEBRIS SHOULD BE RESIDENT TDY OVER
THE NERN STATES...AHD OF THE SFC COLD FRNT...A FEW BRKS OF SUN ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURG THE EARLY AND MID-AFTN HRS. THIS WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE ENUF HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO FUEL ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE DAY...AND SPCLY THIS EVE...AS THE FRNT
ITSELF APPRCHS. THE LATEST RAP/WRF/GFS CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTN...ALG WITH IMPROVING
DEEP-LYRD SHEAR...AND SOME HGT FALLS ALOFT. THUS...ORGANIZED
LINEAR FEATURES SEEM PLAUSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
555 AM UPDATE... OUR MODEL SUITE CONTS TO TREND SLOWER/LESS
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL TROUGH TO IMPACT THE RGN
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

POST-FRNTL SHWRS HAVE BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN OUR FCST FOR
FRI...ALG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AND NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN THIS
REGARD. IN FACT...READINGS FRI LIKELY WILL HOLD ABT STEADY IN THE
LWR-MID 50S...AND MAY EVEN EDGE DOWNWARD A BIT AS THE DAY GOES ON.

WE`VE NUDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT FOR FRI NGT/SAT...MAINLY IN OUR ERN
ZNS...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
MOISTURE/FORCED LIFT...AS IT NOW APPEARS THAT A CLOSER UPR-LVL
SYSTEM WILL LINGER ALG THE COAST AT LEAST INTO SAT.

ALTHOUGH DRYING/CLEARING SKIES NOW LOOKS SLOWER TO OCCUR...WE
STILL ANTICIPATE THAT SOME CLEARING WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR WRN ZNS
BY SAT/SAT EVE. THUS...PRIND ARE THAT THE BEST SHOT FOR
FROST/FREEZE CONDS WILL BE IN THE WRN HALF OF THE FA SAT NGT/EARLY
SUN AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PD BEGINS WITH A LRG AND COOL CANADIAN HP BLDG INTO THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEP LOW OVER NEW ENG. H8 TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C BY
SUN MRNG WITH THE PSBLTY OF SOME LEFTOVER PCPN IN THE ERN ZONES.
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE A BIT SLOWER LIFTING THE UPPER LOW NORTH
INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CLOUDIER COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE
STILL EXPECT STEADY IMPROVEMENT NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE MARITIMES. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST GFS/ECMWF COOLER TREND...
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY IN MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDER COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING. AGAIN THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER
BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS TODAY SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI - SAT...PSBL LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

SUN - MON...VFR. BREEZY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...CMG/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM/MSE
AVIATION...MSE

000
FXUS61 KBGM 231020
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
620 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS THEN CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
545 AM UPDATE... A BAND OF -SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CONTS TO MARCH ACRS
THE CWA ATTM...LIKELY ASSOCD WITH AN UPR-LVL WAVE. WE EXPECT SHWRS
TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE RGN THROUGH 14-15Z...FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN
PCPN FOR MOST OF THIS AFTN.

ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMT OF CLOUD DEBRIS SHOULD BE RESIDENT TDY OVER
THE NERN STATES...AHD OF THE SFC COLD FRNT...A FEW BRKS OF SUN ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURG THE EARLY AND MID-AFTN HRS. THIS WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE ENUF HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO FUEL ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE DAY...AND SPCLY THIS EVE...AS THE FRNT
ITSELF APPRCHS. THE LATEST RAP/WRF/GFS CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTN...ALG WITH IMPROVING
DEEP-LYRD SHEAR...AND SOME HGT FALLS ALOFT. THUS...ORGANIZED
LINEAR FEATURES SEEM PLAUSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
555 AM UPDATE... OUR MODEL SUITE CONTS TO TREND SLOWER/LESS
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL TROUGH TO IMPACT THE RGN
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

POST-FRNTL SHWRS HAVE BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN OUR FCST FOR
FRI...ALG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AND NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN THIS
REGARD. IN FACT...READINGS FRI LIKELY WILL HOLD ABT STEADY IN THE
LWR-MID 50S...AND MAY EVEN EDGE DOWNWARD A BIT AS THE DAY GOES ON.

WE`VE NUDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT FOR FRI NGT/SAT...MAINLY IN OUR ERN
ZNS...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
MOISTURE/FORCED LIFT...AS IT NOW APPEARS THAT A CLOSER UPR-LVL
SYSTEM WILL LINGER ALG THE COAST AT LEAST INTO SAT.

ALTHOUGH DRYING/CLEARING SKIES NOW LOOKS SLOWER TO OCCUR...WE
STILL ANTICIPATE THAT SOME CLEARING WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR WRN ZNS
BY SAT/SAT EVE. THUS...PRIND ARE THAT THE BEST SHOT FOR
FROST/FREEZE CONDS WILL BE IN THE WRN HALF OF THE FA SAT NGT/EARLY
SUN AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PD BEGINS WITH A LRG AND COOL CANADIAN HP BLDG INTO THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEP LOW OVER NEW ENG. H8 TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C BY
SUN MRNG WITH THE PSBLTY OF SOME LEFTOVER PCPN IN THE ERN ZONES.
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE A BIT SLOWER LIFTING THE UPPER LOW NORTH
INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CLOUDIER COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE
STILL EXPECT STEADY IMPROVEMENT NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE MARITIMES. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST GFS/ECMWF COOLER TREND...
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY IN MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDER COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING. AGAIN THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER
BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS TODAY SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI - SAT...PSBL LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

SUN - MON...VFR. BREEZY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM/MSE
AVIATION...MSE

000
FXUS61 KBGM 230719
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
319 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING THIS EVENING...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER YET DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1020 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE THREAT WINDING DOWN QUICKLY...BUT PERSISTS WITH YET ANOTHER
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND AT LEAST SOME GUSTY
REMAINS OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN POCONOS/CATSKILLS. LULL
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY. GRIDS UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM WHICH
SHOULD WORK OUT WELL. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN
ZONES 09Z- 12Z...WITH QUICK INITIATION OF SHOWER/THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT SHORTLY AFTER DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS DUE TO MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND LACK OF INHIBITION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURS AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THE INSTABILITY
AND CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT NOT TOTALLY NEGATE IT AS THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD SHEAR AND FRONT TO TRIGGER THINGS. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT...LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES WILL MAKE STRATOCU
AND LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO HOLD IN OVER CENTRAL NY ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SOME STRATOCU AGAIN SATURDAY GIVING MOSTLY TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PD BEGINS WITH A LRG AND COOL CANADIAN HP BLDG INTO THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEP LOW OVER NEW ENG. H8 TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C BY
SUN MRNG WITH THE PSBLTY OF SOME LEFTOVER PCPN IN THE ERN ZONES.
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE A BIT SLOWER LIFTING THE UPPER LOW NORTH
INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CLOUDIER COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE
STILL EXPECT STEADY IMPROVEMENT NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE MARITIMES. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST GFS/ECMWF COOLER TREND...
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY IN MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDER COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING. AGAIN THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER
BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS TODAY SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI - SAT...PSBL LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

SUN - MON...VFR. BREEZY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...BMW/MDP
SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...DGM/MSE
AVIATION...MSE

000
FXUS61 KBGM 230613
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
213 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING THIS EVENING...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER YET DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1020 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE THREAT WINDING DOWN QUICKLY...BUT PERSISTS WITH YET ANOTHER
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND AT LEAST SOME GUSTY
REMAINS OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN POCONOS/CATSKILLS. LULL
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY. GRIDS UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM WHICH
SHOULD WORK OUT WELL. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN
ZONES 09Z- 12Z...WITH QUICK INITIATION OF SHOWER/THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT SHORTLY AFTER DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS DUE TO MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND LACK OF INHIBITION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURS AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THE INSTABILITY
AND CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT NOT TOTALLY NEGATE IT AS THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD SHEAR AND FRONT TO TRIGGER THINGS. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT...LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES WILL MAKE STRATOCU
AND LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO HOLD IN OVER CENTRAL NY ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SOME STRATOCU AGAIN SATURDAY GIVING MOSTLY TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PD BEGINS WITH A LRG AND COOL CANADIAN HP BLDG INTO THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEP LOW OVER NEW ENG. H8 TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C BY
SUN MRNG WITH THE PSBLTY OF SOME LEFTOVER PCPN IN THE ERN ZONES.
REMAINDER OF THE PD SHOWS THE HIPRES BLDG IN AND WITH MODIFYING
TEMPS.LTL TO NO CHANCE OF PCPN AFT SUN MRNG. GRNLY FLWD HPC GUID
FOR THE PD...ALTHOUGH DID LWR THE TEMPS A BIT TO BE CLSR TO THE
MEX GUID.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY IN MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDER COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING. AGAIN THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER
BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS TODAY SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI - SAT...PSBL LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

SUN - MON...VFR. BREEZY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...BMW/MDP
SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MSE

000
FXUS61 KBGM 230229
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1029 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING THIS EVENING...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER YET DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1020 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE THREAT WINDING DOWN QUICKLY...BUT PERSISTS WITH YET ANOTHER
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND AT LEAST SOME GUSTY
REMAINS OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN POCONOS/CATSKILLS. LULL
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY. GRIDS UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM WHICH
SHOULD WORK OUT WELL. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN
ZONES 09Z- 12Z...WITH QUICK INITIATION OF SHOWER/THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT SHORTLY AFTER DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS DUE TO MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND LACK OF INHIBITION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURS AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THE INSTABILITY
AND CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT NOT TOTALLY NEGATE IT AS THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD SHEAR AND FRONT TO TRIGGER THINGS. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT...LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES WILL MAKE STRATOCU
AND LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO HOLD IN OVER CENTRAL NY ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SOME STRATOCU AGAIN SATURDAY GIVING MOSTLY TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PD BEGINS WITH A LRG AND COOL CANADIAN HP BLDG INTO THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEP LOW OVER NEW ENG. H8 TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C BY
SUN MRNG WITH THE PSBLTY OF SOME LEFTOVER PCPN IN THE ERN ZONES.
REMAINDER OF THE PD SHOWS THE HIPRES BLDG IN AND WITH MODIFYING
TEMPS.LTL TO NO CHANCE OF PCPN AFT SUN MRNG. GRNLY FLWD HPC GUID
FOR THE PD...ALTHOUGH DID LWR THE TEMPS A BIT TO BE CLSR TO THE
MEX GUID.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION 00Z-04Z. TAFS REFLECT
EXPECTED TIMING OF THESE CELLS WITH PRIMARILY WIND GUST IMPACTS.
AFTER THAT THINGS WILL WIND DOWN...THOUGH WITH MVFR VIS AND/OR CIG
FOR SOME TERMINALS. MVFR CIG BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECTING
QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...AS PER
PROB30 GROUPS IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI - SAT...PSBL LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

SUN - MON...VFR. BREEZY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...BMW/MDP
SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM

000
FXUS61 KBGM 222353
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
753 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND
THE CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST DETAILS UPDATED FOR EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION. NASTY HAIL
CORE STORM IS NOW PROGRESSING THROUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. JUST
GOT TENNIS BALL HAIL FROM IT. PLENTY OF HAIL REPORTS THUS FAR FOR
THIS EVENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT AS MANY WIND REPORTS.
HOWEVER...CLUSTERS OF LESSER CORE STORMS ARE MOVING SW TO NE FROM
CENTRAL PA AND MOVING INTO THE AREA AND DESPITE THE WEAKER LOOK TO
THE STORMS ON RADAR...DOWNDRAFT CAPES OF UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE REALIZING SIGNIFICANT AND IN
SOME CASES DAMAGING COLD POOL WIND GUSTS. THIS INCLUDES NUMEROUS
DOWNED TREES IN STEUBEN COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREAWIDE
REMAINS IN EFFECT. THINGS WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY 03Z-04Z AS THAT
ACTIVITY EXITS.

330 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF TSTMS THAT MOVED THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY CREATED A LITTLE
MESO HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE WHICH ALLOWED GOOD SUNSHINE OVER NE PA
AND CENTRAL NY. TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO THE UPR 80S IN THE
WYOMING VALLEY AND NW UP THROUGH BRADFORD AND THE CHEMUNG RIVER
VALLEY. GOOD MIXING IN THIS AREA DROPPED DEW PTS INTO THE MID AND
UPR 50S. CU FIELD IS STARTING TO GROW OVER OUR WRN AREA AND THE
RADAR IS STARTING TO PICK UP NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HENCE ANOTHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. MESO MODELS INDICATE
A THIRD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL REBOUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOTICEABLY DROP WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURS AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THE INSTABILITY
AND CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT NOT TOTALLY NEGATE IT AS THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD SHEAR AND FRONT TO TRIGGER THINGS. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT...LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES WILL AKE STRATOCU
AND LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO HOLD IN OVER CETRAL NY ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SOME STRATOCU AGAIN SATURDAY GIVING MOSTLY TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PD BEGINS WITH A LRG AND COOL CANADIAN HP BLDG INTO THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEP LOW OVER NEW ENG. H8 TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C BY
SUN MRNG WITH THE PSBLTY OF SOME LEFTOVER PCPN IN THE ERN ZONES.
REMAINDER OF THE PD SHOWS THE HIPRES BLDG IN AND WITH MODIFYING
TEMPS.LTL TO NO CHANCE OF PCPN AFT SUN MRNG. GRNLY FLWD HPC GUID
FOR THE PD...ALTHOUGH DID LWR THE TEMPS A BIT TO BE CLSR TO THE
MEX GUID.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION 00Z-04Z. TAFS REFLECT
EXPECTED TIMING OF THESE CELLS WITH PRIMARILY WIND GUST IMPACTS.
AFTER THAT THINGS WILL WIND DOWN...THOUGH WITH MVFR VIS AND/OR CIG
FOR SOME TERMINALS. MVFR CIG BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECTING
QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...AS PER
PROB30 GROUPS IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI - SAT...PSBL LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

SUN - MON...VFR. BREEZY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...BMW/MDP
SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM

000
FXUS61 KBGM 221954
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
354 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND
THE CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
330 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF TSTMS THAT MOVED THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY CREATED A LITTLE
MESO HIGH AND SUBSIDANCE WHICH ALLOWED GOOD SUNSHINE OVER NE PA
AND CENTRAL NY. TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO THE UPR 80S IN THE
WYOMING VALLEY AND NW UP THROUGH BRADFORD AND THE CHEMUNG RIVER
VALLEY. GOOD MIXING IN THIS AREA DROPPED DEW PTS INTO THE MID AND
UPR 50S. CU FIELD IS STARTING TO GROW OVER OUR WRN AREA AND THE
RADAR IS STARTING TO PICK UP NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HENCE ANOTHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. MESO MODELS INDICATE
A THIRD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL REBOUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOTICEABLY DROP WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURS AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THE INSTABILITY
AND CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT NOT TOTALLY NEGATE IT AS THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME GOOD SHEAR AND FRONT TO TRIGGER THINGS. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT...LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES WILL AKE STRATOCU
AND LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO HOLD IN OVER CETRAL NY ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SOME STRATOCU AGAIN SATURDAY GIVING MOSTLY TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PD BEGINS WITH A LRG AND COOL CANADIAN HP BLDG INTO THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEP LOW OVER NEW ENG. H8 TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C BY
SUN MRNG WITH THE PSBLTY OF SOME LEFTOVER PCPN IN THE ERN ZONES.
REMAINDER OF THE PD SHOWS THE HIPRES BLDG IN AND WITH MODIFYING
TEMPS.LTL TO NO CHANCE OF PCPN AFT SUN MRNG. GRNLY FLWD HPC GUID
FOR THE PD...ALTHOUGH DID LWR THE TEMPS A BIT TO BE CLSR TO THE
MEX GUID.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONV DVLPD OVER THE CNTR OF THE FCST AREA BUT IS MVG AWAY FROM THE
TAF SITES. SHRT TERM MODELS SHOW A BRK IN THE ACTION FLWD BY SOME
CONV LTR IN THE PD AS ANOTHER WV PASSES. BEGAIN THE TAF PD WITH
VFR CONDS AND ADDED TEMPO FOR CONV LTR IN THE DAY. COLD FNT WILL
APPROACH FOR LATE IN THE PD SO HAVE FCST A CHANCE OF SHWRS AFT 12Z
WITH MVFR CONDS. WITH WILL GNRLY BE LGT AND SWLY THRU THE PD...BUT
WITH GUSTS PSBL INVOF TRWS.

OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI - SAT...PSBL LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

SUN - MON...VFR. BREEZY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...BMW
SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM

000
FXUS61 KBGM 221744
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
144 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1010 AM UPDATE...
BUSY WX DAY SHAPING UP FOR THE REGION AS CHANCES FOR RENEWED
CONVECTION AND SEVERE WX DEVELOPMENT APPEAR LIKELY AS THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HRS PROGRESS. FIRST THINGS FIRST HOWEVER WITH
MID-MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK SHWRS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES ON THE HEELS OF
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING FROM WESTERN PA INTO
WESTERN NY. SO FAR THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEHAVED BUT ATTENTION REMAINS
FOCUSED ON ANOTHER AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH NOW RESIDES ACROSS
EASTERN KY AND SOUTHERN OH. WITH TIME TODAY...THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S LATER TODAY.

COMPARING TODAY/S SETUP TO YESTERDAY/S...THE ONE THING THAT IS
IMMEDIATELY APPARENT IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS AN ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED
JET STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH IN INCREASING CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. AS A
RESULT...MUCH OF UPSTATE NY AND NORTHERN PA WILL BE PLACED UNDER
THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WHICH WILL ENHANCE UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LIFT
ARRIVING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OHIO VLY SHORTWAVE SHOULD
PROVIDE PLENTY OF MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE SFC...LATEST 13Z SUBJECTIVE HAND ANALYSIS
SHOWS A LEESIDE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL LAKE PLAIN
SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL PA. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...A LINGERING
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHERN NY JUST NORTH
OF THE CWA WHICH COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY.

SUMMING EVERYTHING UP AND CONSIDERING THAT THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VECTORS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 40-45 KTS LATER
TODAY ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...ISOLATED
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. QUICK LOOK AT BOTH THE
12Z BUF AND PIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR STILL
RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK MAINTAINS A
SLGT RISK CWA WIDE WITH A 30% HAIL AND WIND RISK. THE OTHER
CONCERN REMAINS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS BLENDED TPW SATELLITE
GRAPHICS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ABNORMALLY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES. OBVIOUSLY WE/LL HAVE TO
WATCH THINGS AS THEY UNFOLD AS HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CONVECTION ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL RAINS TODAY MAY WARRANT A QUICK
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE LAKE PLAIN AND NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES REGION.

430 AM UPDATE... SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE ACRS THE WRN CATS AND
THE SRN TIER AS BNDRYS LURK IN THE VICINITY. VRY SLIGHT WVS RIDING
UP IN SWRLY FLOW ARE ACTING TO SPARK OFF CONVECTION AND MAY CONT
TO DO SO AT RANDOM TONIGHT. WMFNT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED IN THE FAR
NRN ZONES THO IT IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS
FEATURE WL LIFT THRU THE DAY. AS IT STANDS NOW, MOST OF THE CWA
WILL BE CLEARLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS
ALOFT.

WITH TEMPS INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN AND DWPTS INTO THE 60S, CAPES WL
AVG ARND 1000 J/KG GIVE OR TAKE. STRONG WV AT H5 FCST TO APPCH FM
THE WEST TWD 00Z THIS EVNG, THO ANY SUBTLE FEATURE CAN RIPPLE THRU AT
ANYTIME. THUS, HV STARTED POPS OFF THIS MRNG AS SCTD AND AS WV
APPCHS AND HTG COMMENCES HV GONE CLSR TO LKLY AFT 21Z ACRS NRN ZONES
IN VICINITY OF WMFNT. GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED YDA, POTENTIAL CERTAINLY
EXISTS FOR SVR WX AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF DVLPMNT WL HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR NOW AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO PUT UP A SHORT-FUSED WATCH ONCE AREA
BCMS MORE CLR. AS IT STANDS NOW, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES
OCCURRED IN A SHORT PD OF TIME YDA EVNG ACRS SRN ONONDAGA, CENTRAL
MADISON AND SRN ONEIDA CNTYS AND THESE WL BE THE AREAS TO WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...
TONIGHT WL FEATURE UL LOW EJECTING EAST INTO THE UPR MIDWEST. STRONG
SRLY FLOW WL PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH
40MM PW VALUES POISED TO ENTER INTO THE TN VLY AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
THIS TO MV NWRD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WITH UL SYSTEM APPCHG THE
CENTRAL GREAT LKS BY MRNG AND RIDGE GRADUALLY STARTING TO BREAK
DOWN, WL LKLY SEE INCRS IN POPS BY 12Z THUR. OVRNGT LOWS TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO RMN IN THE 60S UNDER MOIST AIRMASS.

BY 00Z FRIDAY CDFNT WL BISECT CWA. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT ANAFRONT
PCPN WL OCCUR AS UL TROF LAGS BHND FNT. THUS, HV KEPT POPS IN LKLY
RANGE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS.
INSTABILITY IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLD CVR, HWVR IT
APPEARS WINDS AND FRCG WL BE STRONGEST. SO WL MAINTAIN MENTION OF
POSSIBLE SVR IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.

FROPA OCCURS ARND MIDNIGHT FRI NGT WITH UL TROF STILL HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST AND NOT MVG THRU UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z FRIDAY. WL CONTINUE
WITH LKLY POPS THRU THIS TIME WITH JUST CHC SHOWERS BYND. STRONG CAA
WL OCCUR FOLLOWING FROPA WITH OVRNGT MINS DIPPING INTO THE 40S ACRS
THE LK PLAIN WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S ACRS SERN CNTYS.

CAA CONTS DRG THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SKIES CLRNG FM WEST TO EAST AND
TEMPS BARELY MAKING IT TO NR 60F. WINDS WL INCRS AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN SFC LOPRES OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND
BUILDING 1030MB HIPRES. FAIRLY RAW DAY COMPARED TO PAST WEEK OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

PD BEGINS WITH A LRG AND COOL CANADIAN HP BLDG INTO THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEP LOW OVER NEW ENG. H8 TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C BY
SUN MRNG WITH THE PSBLTY OF SOME LEFTOVER PCPN IN THE ERN ZONES.
REMAINDER OF THE PD SHOWS THE HIPRES BLDG IN AND WITH MODIFYING
TEMPS.LTL TO NO CHANCE OF PCPN AFT SUN MRNG. GRNLY FLWD HPC GUID
FOR THE PD...ALTHOUGH DID LWR THE TEMPS A BIT TO BE CLSR TO THE
MEX GUID.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

CONV DVLPD OVER THE CNTR OF THE FCST AREA BUT IS MVG AWAY FROM THE
TAF SITES. SHRT TERM MODELS SHOW A BRK IN THE ACTION FLWD BY SOME
CONV LTR IN THE PD AS ANOTHER WV PASSES. BEGAIN THE TAF PD WITH
VFR CONDS AND ADDED TEMPO FOR CONV LTR IN THE DAY. COLD FNT WILL
APPROACH FOR LATE IN THE PD SO HAVE FCST A CHANCE OF SHWRS AFT 12Z
WITH MVFR CONDS. WITH WILL GNRLY BE LGT AND SWLY THRU THE PD...BUT
WITH GUSTS PSBL INVOF TRWS.

OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI - SAT...PSBL LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

SUN - MON...VFR. BREEZY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...CMG/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM

000
FXUS61 KBGM 221413
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1013 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1010 AM UPDATE...
BUSY WX DAY SHAPING UP FOR THE REGION AS CHANCES FOR RENEWED
CONVECTION AND SEVERE WX DEVELOPMENT APPEAR LIKELY AS THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HRS PROGRESS. FIRST THINGS FIRST HOWEVER WITH
MID-MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK SHWRS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES ON THE HEELS OF
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING FROM WESTERN PA INTO
WESTERN NY. SO FAR THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEHAVED BUT ATTENTION REMAINS
FOCUSED ON ANOTHER AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH NOW RESIDES ACROSS
EASTERN KY AND SOUTHERN OH. WITH TIME TODAY...THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S LATER TODAY.

COMPARING TODAY/S SETUP TO YESTERDAY/S...THE ONE THING THAT IS
IMMEDIATELY APPARENT IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS AN ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED
JET STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH IN INCREASING CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. AS A
RESULT...MUCH OF UPSTATE NY AND NORTHERN PA WILL BE PLACED UNDER
THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WHICH WILL ENHANCE UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LIFT
ARRIVING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OHIO VLY SHORTWAVE SHOULD
PROVIDE PLENTY OF MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE SFC...LATEST 13Z SUBJECTIVE HAND ANALYSIS
SHOWS A LEESIDE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL LAKE PLAIN
SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL PA. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...A LINGERING
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHERN NY JUST NORTH
OF THE CWA WHICH COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY.

SUMMING EVERYTHING UP AND CONSIDERING THAT THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VECTORS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 40-45 KTS LATER
TODAY ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...ISOLATED
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. QUICK LOOK AT BOTH THE
12Z BUF AND PIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR STILL
RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK MAINTAINS A
SLGT RISK CWA WIDE WITH A 30% HAIL AND WIND RISK. THE OTHER
CONCERN REMAINS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS BLENDED TPW SATELLITE
GRAPHICS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ABNORMALLY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES. OBVIOUSLY WE/LL HAVE TO
WATCH THINGS AS THEY UNFOLD AS HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CONVECTION ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL RAINS TODAY MAY WARRANT A QUICK
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE LAKE PLAIN AND NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES REGION.

430 AM UPDATE... SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE ACRS THE WRN CATS AND
THE SRN TIER AS BNDRYS LURK IN THE VICINITY. VRY SLIGHT WVS RIDING
UP IN SWRLY FLOW ARE ACTING TO SPARK OFF CONVECTION AND MAY CONT
TO DO SO AT RANDOM TONIGHT. WMFNT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED IN THE FAR
NRN ZONES THO IT IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS
FEATURE WL LIFT THRU THE DAY. AS IT STANDS NOW, MOST OF THE CWA
WILL BE CLEARLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS
ALOFT.

WITH TEMPS INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN AND DWPTS INTO THE 60S, CAPES WL
AVG ARND 1000 J/KG GIVE OR TAKE. STRONG WV AT H5 FCST TO APPCH FM
THE WEST TWD 00Z THIS EVNG, THO ANY SUBTLE FEATURE CAN RIPPLE THRU AT
ANYTIME. THUS, HV STARTED POPS OFF THIS MRNG AS SCTD AND AS WV
APPCHS AND HTG COMMENCES HV GONE CLSR TO LKLY AFT 21Z ACRS NRN ZONES
IN VICINITY OF WMFNT. GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED YDA, POTENTIAL CERTAINLY
EXISTS FOR SVR WX AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF DVLPMNT WL HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR NOW AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO PUT UP A SHORT-FUSED WATCH ONCE AREA
BCMS MORE CLR. AS IT STANDS NOW, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES
OCCURRED IN A SHORT PD OF TIME YDA EVNG ACRS SRN ONONDAGA, CENTRAL
MADISON AND SRN ONEIDA CNTYS AND THESE WL BE THE AREAS TO WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...
TONIGHT WL FEATURE UL LOW EJECTING EAST INTO THE UPR MIDWEST. STRONG
SRLY FLOW WL PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH
40MM PW VALUES POISED TO ENTER INTO THE TN VLY AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
THIS TO MV NWRD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WITH UL SYSTEM APPCHG THE
CENTRAL GREAT LKS BY MRNG AND RIDGE GRADUALLY STARTING TO BREAK
DOWN, WL LKLY SEE INCRS IN POPS BY 12Z THUR. OVRNGT LOWS TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO RMN IN THE 60S UNDER MOIST AIRMASS.

BY 00Z FRIDAY CDFNT WL BISECT CWA. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT ANAFRONT
PCPN WL OCCUR AS UL TROF LAGS BHND FNT. THUS, HV KEPT POPS IN LKLY
RANGE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS.
INSTABILITY IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLD CVR, HWVR IT
APPEARS WINDS AND FRCG WL BE STRONGEST. SO WL MAINTAIN MENTION OF
POSSIBLE SVR IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.

FROPA OCCURS ARND MIDNIGHT FRI NGT WITH UL TROF STILL HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST AND NOT MVG THRU UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z FRIDAY. WL CONTINUE
WITH LKLY POPS THRU THIS TIME WITH JUST CHC SHOWERS BYND. STRONG CAA
WL OCCUR FOLLOWING FROPA WITH OVRNGT MINS DIPPING INTO THE 40S ACRS
THE LK PLAIN WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S ACRS SERN CNTYS.

CAA CONTS DRG THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SKIES CLRNG FM WEST TO EAST AND
TEMPS BARELY MAKING IT TO NR 60F. WINDS WL INCRS AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN SFC LOPRES OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND
BUILDING 1030MB HIPRES. FAIRLY RAW DAY COMPARED TO PAST WEEK OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
4 AM WED UPDATE... LTL TO NO CHGS MADE TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM.

THE 00Z WED MODEL SUITE IS STILL SINGING THE SAME TUNE ON THE
LARGE-SCALE...WITH A DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND THE NERN STATES THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LEADING TO
FAIRLY CHILLY TEMPS FOR LATE MAY (HIGHS ONLY FROM THE 50S-MID 60S).
ONE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS CONCERNS THE PROGRESSIVENESS
OF THIS UPR TROUGH AND ASSOCD SFC COLD FRNT. THE EC SHOWS ONLY
VERY SLOW EWD PROGRESS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO LINGERING SHWRS FOR SAT...PERHAPS EVEN INTO
SUN. MEANWHILE...THE GFS BUILDS SFC RIDGING INTO NY/PA MUCH MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN DRIER WX. WE`LL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS...THUS MAINTAINING A PCPN-FREE FORECAST.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...AND ALSO ALLUDED TO IN THE PREV DISC...THE
CHILLY NATURE OF THE AMS COULD WELL RESULT IN NIGHT-TIME LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 30S FOR OUR NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. AS WE DRAW
CLOSER...AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN COLD OVERNIGHT
LOWS...FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED. WE`LL OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE
TO LOOK CLOSELY AT THIS SITN IN THE COMING DAYS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TWDS RISING
HGTS/MODIFYING TEMPS WITH TIME.

PREV DISC... AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL BE WORKING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS GREAT LAKES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG BLOCKING SOUTH OF GREENLAND WILL
RESULT IN ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE EXITING UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES.
THIS WILL ENSURE ARRIVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WITH A DRY
AIRMASS FIRMLY IN PLACE...EXPECT A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EASILY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FROST FORMATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z UPDATE... OTHER THAN SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HZ
EARLY THIS AM...VFR SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY.
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL BE FLOATING THROUGH CNY THROUGH EARLY
AFTN...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS SPARSE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THEIR MENTION
IN THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEAR TERM.

LTR THIS AFTN...COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE...SPCLY NEAR
KSYR AND KRME...SO RESTRICTIVE CONDS WERE INSERTED AT THAT TIME.
LTR THIS EVE...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AGN.

LGT SFC WINDS THIS AM...WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY OUT OF THE S AND
SW THIS AFTN (20-25 KT)...BEFORE LESSENING THIS EVE.

OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI...PSBL LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

SAT-SUN...VFR. BREEZY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...CMG/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...CMG/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP

000
FXUS61 KBGM 221053
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
653 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
430 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE ACRS THE WRN CATS AND THE SRN TIER AS
BNDRYS LURK IN THE VICINITY. VRY SLIGHT WVS RIDING UP IN SWRLY FLOW
ARE ACTING TO SPARK OFF CONVECTION AND MAY CONT TO DO SO AT RANDOM
TONIGHT. WMFNT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED IN THE FAR NRN ZONES THO IT IS
A LITTLE UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS FEATURE WL LIFT THRU THE
DAY. AS IT STANDS NOW, MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE CLEARLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT.

WITH TEMPS INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN AND DWPTS INTO THE 60S, CAPES WL
AVG ARND 1000 J/KG GIVE OR TAKE. STRONG WV AT H5 FCST TO APPCH FM
THE WEST TWD 00Z THIS EVNG, THO ANY SUBTLE FEATURE CAN RIPPLE THRU AT
ANYTIME. THUS, HV STARTED POPS OFF THIS MRNG AS SCTD AND AS WV
APPCHS AND HTG COMMENCES HV GONE CLSR TO LKLY AFT 21Z ACRS NRN ZONES
IN VICINITY OF WMFNT. GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED YDA, POTENTIAL CERTAINLY
EXISTS FOR SVR WX AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF DVLPMNT WL HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR NOW AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO PUT UP A SHORT-FUSED WATCH ONCE AREA
BCMS MORE CLR. AS IT STANDS NOW, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES
OCCURRED IN A SHORT PD OF TIME YDA EVNG ACRS SRN ONONDAGA, CENTRAL
MADISON AND SRN ONEIDA CNTYS AND THESE WL BE THE AREAS TO WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...
TONIGHT WL FEATURE UL LOW EJECTING EAST INTO THE UPR MIDWEST. STRONG
SRLY FLOW WL PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH
40MM PW VALUES POISED TO ENTER INTO THE TN VLY AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
THIS TO MV NWRD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WITH UL SYSTEM APPCHG THE
CENTRAL GREAT LKS BY MRNG AND RIDGE GRADUALLY STARTING TO BREAK
DOWN, WL LKLY SEE INCRS IN POPS BY 12Z THUR. OVRNGT LOWS TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO RMN IN THE 60S UNDER MOIST AIRMASS.

BY 00Z FRIDAY CDFNT WL BISECT CWA. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT ANAFRONT
PCPN WL OCCUR AS UL TROF LAGS BHND FNT. THUS, HV KEPT POPS IN LKLY
RANGE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS.
INSTABILITY IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLD CVR, HWVR IT
APPEARS WINDS AND FRCG WL BE STRONGEST. SO WL MAINTAIN MENTION OF
POSSIBLE SVR IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.

FROPA OCCURS ARND MIDNIGHT FRI NGT WITH UL TROF STILL HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST AND NOT MVG THRU UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z FRIDAY. WL CONTINUE
WITH LKLY POPS THRU THIS TIME WITH JUST CHC SHOWERS BYND. STRONG CAA
WL OCCUR FOLLOWING FROPA WITH OVRNGT MINS DIPPING INTO THE 40S ACRS
THE LK PLAIN WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S ACRS SERN CNTYS.

CAA CONTS DRG THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SKIES CLRNG FM WEST TO EAST AND
TEMPS BARELY MAKING IT TO NR 60F. WINDS WL INCRS AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN SFC LOPRES OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND
BUILDING 1030MB HIPRES. FAIRLY RAW DAY COMPARED TO PAST WEEK OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
4 AM WED UPDATE... LTL TO NO CHGS MADE TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM.

THE 00Z WED MODEL SUITE IS STILL SINGING THE SAME TUNE ON THE
LARGE-SCALE...WITH A DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND THE NERN STATES THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LEADING TO
FAIRLY CHILLY TEMPS FOR LATE MAY (HIGHS ONLY FROM THE 50S-MID 60S).
ONE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS CONCERNS THE PROGRESSIVENESS
OF THIS UPR TROUGH AND ASSOCD SFC COLD FRNT. THE EC SHOWS ONLY
VERY SLOW EWD PROGRESS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO LINGERING SHWRS FOR SAT...PERHAPS EVEN INTO
SUN. MEANWHILE...THE GFS BUILDS SFC RIDGING INTO NY/PA MUCH MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN DRIER WX. WE`LL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS...THUS MAINTAINING A PCPN-FREE FORECAST.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...AND ALSO ALLUDED TO IN THE PREV DISC...THE
CHILLY NATURE OF THE AMS COULD WELL RESULT IN NIGHT-TIME LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 30S FOR OUR NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. AS WE DRAW
CLOSER...AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN COLD OVERNIGHT
LOWS...FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED. WE`LL OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE
TO LOOK CLOSELY AT THIS SITN IN THE COMING DAYS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TWDS RISING
HGTS/MODIFYING TEMPS WITH TIME.

PREV DISC... AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL BE WORKING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS GREAT LAKES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG BLOCKING SOUTH OF GREENLAND WILL
RESULT IN ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE EXITING UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES.
THIS WILL ENSURE ARRIVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WITH A DRY
AIRMASS FIRMLY IN PLACE...EXPECT A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EASILY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FROST FORMATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z UPDATE... OTHER THAN SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HZ
EARLY THIS AM...VFR SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY.
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL BE FLOATING THROUGH CNY THROUGH EARLY
AFTN...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS SPARSE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THEIR MENTION
IN THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEAR TERM.

LTR THIS AFTN...COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE...SPCLY NEAR
KSYR AND KRME...SO RESTRICTIVE CONDS WERE INSERTED AT THAT TIME.
LTR THIS EVE...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AGN.

LGT SFC WINDS THIS AM...WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY OUT OF THE S AND
SW THIS AFTN (20-25 KT)...BEFORE LESSENING THIS EVE.

OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI...PSBL LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

SAT-SUN...VFR. BREEZY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...CMG/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP

000
FXUS61 KBGM 220840
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
440 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
430 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE ACRS THE WRN CATS AND THE SRN TIER AS
BNDRYS LURK IN THE VICINITY. VRY SLIGHT WVS RIDING UP IN SWRLY FLOW
ARE ACTING TO SPARK OFF CONVECTION AND MAY CONT TO DO SO AT RANDOM
TONIGHT. WMFNT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED IN THE FAR NRN ZONES THO IT IS
A LITTLE UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS FEATURE WL LIFT THRU THE
DAY. AS IT STANDS NOW, MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE CLEARLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT.

WITH TEMPS INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN AND DWPTS INTO THE 60S, CAPES WL
AVG ARND 1000 J/KG GIVE OR TAKE. STRONG WV AT H5 FCST TO APPCH FM
THE WEST TWD 00Z THIS EVNG, THO ANY SUBTLE FEATURE CAN RIPPLE THRU AT
ANYTIME. THUS, HV STARTED POPS OFF THIS MRNG AS SCTD AND AS WV
APPCHS AND HTG COMMENCES HV GONE CLSR TO LKLY AFT 21Z ACRS NRN ZONES
IN VICINITY OF WMFNT. GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED YDA, POTENTIAL CERTAINLY
EXISTS FOR SVR WX AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF DVLPMNT WL HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR NOW AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO PUT UP A SHORT-FUSED WATCH ONCE AREA
BCMS MORE CLR. AS IT STANDS NOW, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES
OCCURRED IN A SHORT PD OF TIME YDA EVNG ACRS SRN ONONDAGA, CENTRAL
MADISON AND SRN ONEIDA CNTYS AND THESE WL BE THE AREAS TO WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...
TONIGHT WL FEATURE UL LOW EJECTING EAST INTO THE UPR MIDWEST. STRONG
SRLY FLOW WL PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH
40MM PW VALUES POISED TO ENTER INTO THE TN VLY AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
THIS TO MV NWRD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WITH UL SYSTEM APPCHG THE
CENTRAL GREAT LKS BY MRNG AND RIDGE GRADUALLY STARTING TO BREAK
DOWN, WL LKLY SEE INCRS IN POPS BY 12Z THUR. OVRNGT LOWS TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO RMN IN THE 60S UNDER MOIST AIRMASS.

BY 00Z FRIDAY CDFNT WL BISECT CWA. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT ANAFRONT
PCPN WL OCCUR AS UL TROF LAGS BHND FNT. THUS, HV KEPT POPS IN LKLY
RANGE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS.
INSTABILITY IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLD CVR, HWVR IT
APPEARS WINDS AND FRCG WL BE STRONGEST. SO WL MAINTAIN MENTION OF
POSSIBLE SVR IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.

FROPA OCCURS ARND MIDNIGHT FRI NGT WITH UL TROF STILL HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST AND NOT MVG THRU UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z FRIDAY. WL CONTINUE
WITH LKLY POPS THRU THIS TIME WITH JUST CHC SHOWERS BYND. STRONG CAA
WL OCCUR FOLLOWING FROPA WITH OVRNGT MINS DIPPING INTO THE 40S ACRS
THE LK PLAIN WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S ACRS SERN CNTYS.

CAA CONTS DRG THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SKIES CLRNG FM WEST TO EAST AND
TEMPS BARELY MAKING IT TO NR 60F. WINDS WL INCRS AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN SFC LOPRES OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND
BUILDING 1030MB HIPRES. FAIRLY RAW DAY COMPARED TO PAST WEEK OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
4 AM WED UPDATE... LTL TO NO CHGS MADE TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM.

THE 00Z WED MODEL SUITE IS STILL SINGING THE SAME TUNE ON THE
LARGE-SCALE...WITH A DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND THE NERN STATES THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LEADING TO
FAIRLY CHILLY TEMPS FOR LATE MAY (HIGHS ONLY FROM THE 50S-MID 60S).
ONE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS CONCERNS THE PROGRESSIVENESS
OF THIS UPR TROUGH AND ASSOCD SFC COLD FRNT. THE EC SHOWS ONLY
VERY SLOW EWD PROGRESS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO LINGERING SHWRS FOR SAT...PERHAPS EVEN INTO
SUN. MEANWHILE...THE GFS BUILDS SFC RIDGING INTO NY/PA MUCH MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN DRIER WX. WE`LL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS...THUS MAINTAINING A PCPN-FREE FORECAST.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...AND ALSO ALLUDED TO IN THE PREV DISC...THE
CHILLY NATURE OF THE AMS COULD WELL RESULT IN NIGHT-TIME LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 30S FOR OUR NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. AS WE DRAW
CLOSER...AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN COLD OVERNIGHT
LOWS...FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED. WE`LL OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE
TO LOOK CLOSELY AT THIS SITN IN THE COMING DAYS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TWDS RISING
HGTS/MODIFYING TEMPS WITH TIME.

PREV DISC... AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL BE WORKING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS GREAT LAKES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG BLOCKING SOUTH OF GREENLAND WILL
RESULT IN ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE EXITING UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES.
THIS WILL ENSURE ARRIVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WITH A DRY
AIRMASS FIRMLY IN PLACE...EXPECT A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EASILY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FROST FORMATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON JUST PASSED THROUGH
KSYR-KRME. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WILL AGAIN
IMPACT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS /KSYR-KRME/ THIS EVENING WITH TIMING
AS INDICATED BY TEMPO GROUPS IN TAFS. LESSER CHANCES AT OTHER
TERMINALS...YET STILL POSSIBLE...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS
THROUGH STILL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. INDIVIDUAL TAFS WILL BE AMENDED
IF NECESSARY SHOULD THUNDER BE MORE LIKELY. EXPECTED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE THUS
INCLUDED PROB30 TSRA GROUPS COORDINATING WITH PEAK HEATING HOURS
FOR MOST TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS GENERALLY
VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST...AND MAINLY VFR.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI...VFR/MVFR.

SAT-SUN...VFR. BREEZY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...CMG/MLJ
AVIATION...MDP

000
FXUS61 KBGM 220823
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
423 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1210 AM UPDATE...
HV UPDATED GRIDS TO CANCEL SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 203 AND RMV
MENTION OF SVR STORMS FM THE GRIDS. ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS RMN
UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME WITH WMFNT ESSENTIALLY RMNG IN THE SAME
PLACE FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS.

900 PM UPDATE...
SHALLOW WARM FRONT HAS NOT LIFTED MUCH...OR AT LEAST HAS BECOME
OVERWHELMED BY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. WEAK WAVES ALOFT
ARE CAUSING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. IN COORDINATION WITH WFO ALBANY...EXTENDED THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WITH REPEATED BATCHES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ALREADY
AND RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. LUCKILY BEFORE TODAY
THE PATTERN HAS BEEN QUITE DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED FLOOD
ISSUES...BUT AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE WILL STILL BE VULNERABLE FOR
WATER PROBLEMS WHERE REPEATED RAINFALLS ARE OCCURRING. THAT AND
IMPERMEABLE SURFACES SUCH AS URBAN LOTS/ROADWAYS/ETC.

640 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...BUT LIMITED TRIGGERS. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
WARM FRONT HAS SERVED PURPOSE OF BEING AN EFFECTIVE TRIGGER...AND
THUS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOST ENHANCED ALONG AND NORTH OF LIFTING
FRONT IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. CURRENT SEVERE CELLS AND ONE WITH
STRONG ROTATION /HAS TORNADO WARNING/ WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM. AFTER THAT...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
IN EASTERN OHIO WITH LIMITED CONVECTION...MAY TRY TO HARNESS
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT STILL EXISTS WITHIN WARM
SECTOR LATER THIS EVENING. COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY FOR THAT LATER
ACTIVITY HOWEVER...SO ONLY CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 PM...A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS OVER THE REGION WITH 100 MB
MIXED LAYER CAPES RANGING FROM 1500-2000. A WEAK WARM FRONT
REMAINS OVER NRN NYS AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN.
EVEN THOUGH FORCING MECHANISMS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH THE AVAILABLE CAPE WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH LATE EVENING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARILY
THREAT.

LATE TONIGHT, ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE
AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVES EAST OF FA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF IN THE MID WEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST. AREA WILL RESIDE WELL INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY MAYBE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER AS T85 DROPS OFF A FEW CELSIUS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LESS CAPE THAN TODAY WILL VALUES RANGING FROM 1000/1500
J/KG. WIND FIELDS REMAIN FAIRLY MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT
JET DYNAMICS ARE BETTER THAN TODAY AS REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. WILL INCREASE POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
MAX THEM OUT AT HIGH CHC. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...H5 TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE MID WEST
WILL REACH THE WESTERN LAKES BY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW PRES WILL WILL
TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT JET DYNAMICS ARE FAIRLY
WEAK AND ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BE NOT NEARLY AS UNSTABLE AS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SFC FEATURE APPROACH THE
AREA LATE WED NIGHT WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY LATE WED NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF FA BY EARLY EVENING
BUT DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. STRONG CAA POST FRONTAL WILL MAKE FOR MUCH COOLER MAXES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN NYS TO LOW TO
MID 60S IN NE PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
4 AM WED UPDATE... LTL TO NO CHGS MADE TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM.

THE 00Z WED MODEL SUITE IS STILL SINGING THE SAME TUNE ON THE
LARGE-SCALE...WITH A DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND THE NERN STATES THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LEADING TO
FAIRLY CHILLY TEMPS FOR LATE MAY (HIGHS ONLY FROM THE 50S-MID 60S).
ONE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS CONCERNS THE PROGRESSIVENESS
OF THIS UPR TROUGH AND ASSOCD SFC COLD FRNT. THE EC SHOWS ONLY
VERY SLOW EWD PROGRESS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO LINGERING SHWRS FOR SAT...PERHAPS EVEN INTO
SUN. MEANWHILE...THE GFS BUILDS SFC RIDGING INTO NY/PA MUCH MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN DRIER WX. WE`LL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS...THUS MAINTAINING A PCPN-FREE FORECAST.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...AND ALSO ALLUDED TO IN THE PREV DISC...THE
CHILLY NATURE OF THE AMS COULD WELL RESULT IN NIGHT-TIME LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 30S FOR OUR NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. AS WE DRAW
CLOSER...AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN COLD OVERNIGHT
LOWS...FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED. WE`LL OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE
TO LOOK CLOSELY AT THIS SITN IN THE COMING DAYS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TWDS RISING
HGTS/MODIFYING TEMPS WITH TIME.

PREV DISC... AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL BE WORKING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS GREAT LAKES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG BLOCKING SOUTH OF GREENLAND WILL
RESULT IN ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE EXITING UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES.
THIS WILL ENSURE ARRIVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WITH A DRY
AIRMASS FIRMLY IN PLACE...EXPECT A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EASILY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FROST FORMATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON JUST PASSED THROUGH
KSYR-KRME. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WILL AGAIN
IMPACT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS /KSYR-KRME/ THIS EVENING WITH TIMING
AS INDICATED BY TEMPO GROUPS IN TAFS. LESSER CHANCES AT OTHER
TERMINALS...YET STILL POSSIBLE...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS
THROUGH STILL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. INDIVIDUAL TAFS WILL BE AMENDED
IF NECESSARY SHOULD THUNDER BE MORE LIKELY. EXPECTED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE THUS
INCLUDED PROB30 TSRA GROUPS COORDINATING WITH PEAK HEATING HOURS
FOR MOST TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS GENERALLY
VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST...AND MAINLY VFR.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI...VFR/MVFR.

SAT-SUN...VFR. BREEZY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...CMG/MLJ
AVIATION...MDP

000
FXUS61 KBGM 220411
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1211 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1210 AM UPDATE...
HV UPDATED GRIDS TO CANCEL SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 203 AND RMV
MENTION OF SVR STORMS FM THE GRIDS. ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS RMN
UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME WITH WMFNT ESSENTIALLY RMNG IN THE SAME
PLACE FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS.

900 PM UPDATE...
SHALLOW WARM FRONT HAS NOT LIFTED MUCH...OR AT LEAST HAS BECOME
OVERWHELMED BY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. WEAK WAVES ALOFT
ARE CAUSING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. IN COORDINATION WITH WFO ALBANY...EXTENDED THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WITH REPEATED BATCHES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ALREADY
AND RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. LUCKILY BEFORE TODAY
THE PATTERN HAS BEEN QUITE DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED FLOOD
ISSUES...BUT AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE WILL STILL BE VULNERABLE FOR
WATER PROBLEMS WHERE REPEATED RAINFALLS ARE OCCURRING. THAT AND
IMPERMEABLE SURFACES SUCH AS URBAN LOTS/ROADWAYS/ETC.

640 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...BUT LIMITED TRIGGERS. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
WARM FRONT HAS SERVED PURPOSE OF BEING AN EFFECTIVE TRIGGER...AND
THUS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOST ENHANCED ALONG AND NORTH OF LIFTING
FRONT IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. CURRENT SEVERE CELLS AND ONE WITH
STRONG ROTATION /HAS TORNADO WARNING/ WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM. AFTER THAT...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
IN EASTERN OHIO WITH LIMITED CONVECTION...MAY TRY TO HARNESS
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT STILL EXISTS WITHIN WARM
SECTOR LATER THIS EVENING. COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY FOR THAT LATER
ACTIVITY HOWEVER...SO ONLY CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 PM...A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS OVER THE REGION WITH 100 MB
MIXED LAYER CAPES RANGING FROM 1500-2000. A WEAK WARM FRONT
REMAINS OVER NRN NYS AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN.
EVEN THOUGH FORCING MECHANISMS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH THE AVAILABLE CAPE WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH LATE EVENING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARILY
THREAT.

LATE TONIGHT, ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE
AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVES EAST OF FA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF IN THE MID WEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST. AREA WILL RESIDE WELL INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY MAYBE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER AS T85 DROPS OFF A FEW CELSIUS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LESS CAPE THAN TODAY WILL VALUES RANGING FROM 1000/1500
J/KG. WIND FIELDS REMAIN FAIRLY MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT
JET DYNAMICS ARE BETTER THAN TODAY AS REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. WILL INCREASE POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
MAX THEM OUT AT HIGH CHC. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...H5 TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE MID WEST
WILL REACH THE WESTERN LAKES BY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW PRES WILL WILL
TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT JET DYNAMICS ARE FAIRLY
WEAK AND ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BE NOT NEARLY AS UNSTABLE AS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SFC FEATURE APPROACH THE
AREA LATE WED NIGHT WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY LATE WED NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF FA BY EARLY EVENING
BUT DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. STRONG CAA POST FRONTAL WILL MAKE FOR MUCH COOLER MAXES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN NYS TO LOW TO
MID 60S IN NE PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE
WORKING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS GREAT LAKES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. AS THIS
OCCURS...STRONG BLOCKING SOUTH OF GREENLAND WILL RESULT IN ONLY
A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. THIS WILL ENSURE
ARRIVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WITH A DRY AIRMASS FIRMLY IN
PLACE...EXPECT A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS EASILY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. FROM
THIS VANTAGE POINT...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FROST FORMATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON JUST PASSED THROUGH
KSYR-KRME. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WILL AGAIN
IMPACT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS /KSYR-KRME/ THIS EVENING WITH TIMING
AS INDICATED BY TEMPO GROUPS IN TAFS. LESSER CHANCES AT OTHER
TERMINALS...YET STILL POSSIBLE...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS
THROUGH STILL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. INDIVIDUAL TAFS WILL BE AMENDED
IF NECESSARY SHOULD THUNDER BE MORE LIKELY. EXPECTED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE THUS
INCLUDED PROB30 TSRA GROUPS COORDINATING WITH PEAK HEATING HOURS
FOR MOST TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS GENERALLY
VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST...AND MAINLY VFR.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI...VFR/MVFR.

SAT-SUN...VFR. BREEZY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...MDP

000
FXUS61 KBGM 220113
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
913 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
900 PM UPDATE...
SHALLOW WARM FRONT HAS NOT LIFTED MUCH...OR AT LEAST HAS BECOME
OVERWHELMED BY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. WEAK WAVES ALOFT
ARE CAUSING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. IN COORDINATION WITH WFO ALBANY...EXTENDED THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WITH REPEATED BATCHES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ALREADY
AND RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. LUCKILY BEFORE TODAY
THE PATTERN HAS BEEN QUITE DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED FLOOD
ISSUES...BUT AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE WILL STILL BE VULNERABLE FOR
WATER PROBLEMS WHERE REPEATED RAINFALLS ARE OCCURRING. THAT AND
IMPERMEABLE SURFACES SUCH AS URBAN LOTS/ROADWAYS/ETC.

640 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...BUT LIMITED TRIGGERS. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
WARM FRONT HAS SERVED PURPOSE OF BEING AN EFFECTIVE TRIGGER...AND
THUS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOST ENHANCED ALONG AND NORTH OF LIFTING
FRONT IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. CURRENT SEVERE CELLS AND ONE WITH
STRONG ROTATION /HAS TORNADO WARNING/ WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM. AFTER THAT...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
IN EASTERN OHIO WITH LIMITED CONVECTION...MAY TRY TO HARNESS
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT STILL EXISTS WITHIN WARM
SECTOR LATER THIS EVENING. COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY FOR THAT LATER
ACTIVITY HOWEVER...SO ONLY CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 PM...A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS OVER THE REGION WITH 100 MB
MIXED LAYER CAPES RANGING FROM 1500-2000. A WEAK WARM FRONT
REMAINS OVER NRN NYS AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN.
EVEN THOUGH FORCING MECHANISMS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH THE AVAILABLE CAPE WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH LATE EVENING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARILY
THREAT.

LATE TONIGHT, ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE
AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVES EAST OF FA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF IN THE MID WEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST. AREA WILL RESIDE WELL INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY MAYBE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER AS T85 DROPS OFF A FEW CELSIUS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LESS CAPE THAN TODAY WILL VALUES RANGING FROM 1000/1500
J/KG. WIND FIELDS REMAIN FAIRLY MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT
JET DYNAMICS ARE BETTER THAN TODAY AS REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. WILL INCREASE POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
MAX THEM OUT AT HIGH CHC. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...H5 TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE MID WEST
WILL REACH THE WESTERN LAKES BY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW PRES WILL WILL
TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT JET DYNAMICS ARE FAIRLY
WEAK AND ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BE NOT NEARLY AS UNSTABLE AS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SFC FEATURE APPROACH THE
AREA LATE WED NIGHT WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY LATE WED NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF FA BY EARLY EVENING
BUT DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. STRONG CAA POST FRONTAL WILL MAKE FOR MUCH COOLER MAXES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN NYS TO LOW TO
MID 60S IN NE PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE
WORKING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS GREAT LAKES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. AS THIS
OCCURS...STRONG BLOCKING SOUTH OF GREENLAND WILL RESULT IN ONLY
A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. THIS WILL ENSURE
ARRIVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WITH A DRY AIRMASS FIRMLY IN
PLACE...EXPECT A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS EASILY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. FROM
THIS VANTAGE POINT...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FROST FORMATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON JUST PASSED THROUGH
KSYR-KRME. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WILL AGAIN
IMPACT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS /KSYR-KRME/ THIS EVENING WITH TIMING
AS INDICATED BY TEMPO GROUPS IN TAFS. LESSER CHANCES AT OTHER
TERMINALS...YET STILL POSSIBLE...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS
THROUGH STILL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. INDIVIDUAL TAFS WILL BE AMENDED
IF NECESSARY SHOULD THUNDER BE MORE LIKELY. EXPECTED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE THUS
INCLUDED PROB30 TSRA GROUPS COORDINATING WITH PEAK HEATING HOURS
FOR MOST TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS GENERALLY
VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST...AND MAINLY VFR.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI...VFR/MVFR.

SAT-SUN...VFR. BREEZY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...MDP

000
FXUS61 KBGM 212341
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
741 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
640 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...BUT LIMITED TRIGGERS. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
WARM FRONT HAS SERVED PURPOSE OF BEING AN EFFECTIVE TRIGGER...AND
THUS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOST ENHANCED ALONG AND NORTH OF LIFTING
FRONT IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. CURRENT SEVERE CELLS AND ONE WITH
STRONG ROTATION /HAS TORNADO WARNING/ WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM. AFTER THAT...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
IN EASTERN OHIO WITH LIMITED CONVECTION...MAY TRY TO HARNESS
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT STILL EXISTS WITHIN WARM
SECTOR LATER THIS EVENING. COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY FOR THAT LATER
ACTIVITY HOWEVER...SO ONLY CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 PM...A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS OVER THE REGION WITH 100 MB
MIXED LAYER CAPES RANGING FROM 1500-2000. A WEAK WARM FRONT
REMAINS OVER NRN NYS AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN.
EVEN THOUGH FORCING MECHANISMS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH THE AVAILABLE CAPE WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH LATE EVENING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARILY
THREAT.

LATE TONIGHT, ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE
AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVES EAST OF FA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF IN THE MID WEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST. AREA WILL RESIDE WELL INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY MAYBE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER AS T85 DROPS OFF A FEW CELSIUS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LESS CAPE THAN TODAY WILL VALUES RANGING FROM 1000/1500
J/KG. WIND FIELDS REMAIN FAIRLY MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT
JET DYNAMICS ARE BETTER THAN TODAY AS REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. WILL INCREASE POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
MAX THEM OUT AT HIGH CHC. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...H5 TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE MID WEST
WILL REACH THE WESTERN LAKES BY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW PRES WILL WILL
TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT JET DYNAMICS ARE FAIRLY
WEAK AND ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BE NOT NEARLY AS UNSTABLE AS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SFC FEATURE APPROACH THE
AREA LATE WED NIGHT WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY LATE WED NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF FA BY EARLY EVENING
BUT DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. STRONG CAA POST FRONTAL WILL MAKE FOR MUCH COOLER MAXES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN NYS TO LOW TO
MID 60S IN NE PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE
WORKING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS GREAT LAKES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. AS THIS
OCCURS...STRONG BLOCKING SOUTH OF GREENLAND WILL RESULT IN ONLY
A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. THIS WILL ENSURE
ARRIVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WITH A DRY AIRMASS FIRMLY IN
PLACE...EXPECT A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS EASILY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. FROM
THIS VANTAGE POINT...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FROST FORMATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON JUST PASSED THROUGH
KSYR-KRME. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WILL AGAIN
IMPACT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS /KSYR-KRME/ THIS EVENING WITH TIMING
AS INDICATED BY TEMPO GROUPS IN TAFS. LESSER CHANCES AT OTHER
TERMINALS...YET STILL POSSIBLE...AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS
THROUGH STILL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. INDIVIDUAL TAFS WILL BE AMENDED
IF NECESSARY SHOULD THUNDER BE MORE LIKELY. EXPECTED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE THUS
INCLUDED PROB30 TSRA GROUPS COORDINATING WITH PEAK HEATING HOURS
FOR MOST TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS GENERALLY
VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST...AND MAINLY VFR.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI...VFR/MVFR.

SAT-SUN...VFR. BREEZY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...MDP

000
FXUS61 KBGM 212246
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
640 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...BUT LIMITED TRIGGERS. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
WARM FRONT HAS SERVED PURPOSE OF BEING AN EFFECTIVE TRIGGER...AND
THUS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOST ENHANCED ALONG AND NORTH OF LIFTING
FRONT IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. CURRENT SEVERE CELLS AND ONE WITH
STRONG ROTATION /HAS TORNADO WARNING/ WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM. AFTER THAT...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
IN EASTERN OHIO WITH LIMITED CONVECTION...MAY TRY TO HARNESS
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT STILL EXISTS WITHIN WARM
SECTOR LATER THIS EVENING. COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY FOR THAT LATER
ACTIVITY HOWEVER...SO ONLY CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 PM...A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS OVER THE REGION WITH 100 MB
MIXED LAYER CAPES RANGING FROM 1500-2000. A WEAK WARM FRONT
REMAINS OVER NRN NYS AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN.
EVEN THOUGH FORCING MECHANISMS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH THE AVAILABLE CAPE WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH LATE EVENING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARILY
THREAT.

LATE TONIGHT, ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE
AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVES EAST OF FA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF IN THE MID WEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST. AREA WILL RESIDE WELL INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY MAYBE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER AS T85 DROPS OFF A FEW CELSIUS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LESS CAPE THAN TODAY WILL VALUES RANGING FROM 1000/1500
J/KG. WIND FIELDS REMAIN FAIRLY MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT
JET DYNAMICS ARE BETTER THAN TODAY AS REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. WILL INCREASE POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
MAX THEM OUT AT HIGH CHC. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...H5 TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE MID WEST
WILL REACH THE WESTERN LAKES BY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW PRES WILL WILL
TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT JET DYNAMICS ARE FAIRLY
WEAK AND ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BE NOT NEARLY AS UNSTABLE AS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SFC FEATURE APPROACH THE
AREA LATE WED NIGHT WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY LATE WED NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF FA BY EARLY EVENING
BUT DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. STRONG CAA POST FRONTAL WILL MAKE FOR MUCH COOLER MAXES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN NYS TO LOW TO
MID 60S IN NE PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE
WORKING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS GREAT LAKES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. AS THIS
OCCURS...STRONG BLOCKING SOUTH OF GREENLAND WILL RESULT IN ONLY
A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. THIS WILL ENSURE
ARRIVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WITH A DRY AIRMASS FIRMLY IN
PLACE...EXPECT A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS EASILY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. FROM
THIS VANTAGE POINT...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FROST FORMATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM 2-4 HOUR CONVECTIVE TREND FORECASTS
IS OVERALL GOOD WITH A WELL DEFINED CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON. A LOT OF THE TSRA ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLD-SCT AND PROBABLY WILL NOT AFFECT MUCH TERMINAL OPERATION...BUT
THE HIGHEST CHANCE SEEMS TO BE IN THE KSYR-KRME AREA THROUGH 21Z
BASED ON THE LATEST THERMODYNAMIC AND FORCING PARAMETERS. THESE ARE
THE ONLY LOCATIONS WE HAVE INCLUDED TSRA IN FORECAST ATTM WITH
CONFIDENCE...BUT KBGM-KITH ARE CLOSE AND NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
ACTIVITY IN VCNTY. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THE CHANCES AND CONFIDENCE
IS GENERALLY LOW. BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON...WE BELIEVE THAT MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT
LOOK OVERDONE. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE OVERDONE IN STORM COVERAGE
NOW...AND THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER
MECHANISM TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY IN A STABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT. WILL FOCUS ON A MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION OF
VFR...BECOMING MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN SPOTS DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
LATER TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF PUTTING STORMS IN FORECAST UNTIL
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...OR A SUBSTANTIVE WAVE IS DETECTED. ON
WEDNESDAY...ENVIRONMENT RETURNS TO CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE...BUT
WELL WITHIN WARM SECTOR WITH AGAIN ONLY ISOLD-SCT ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE TOWARD 18Z.

MIXED WIND FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NW-N ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD
OF REGION...TO SW 5-15 KTS SOUTHERN 2/3RDS. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SW 5-10 KTS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI...VFR/MVFR.

SAT-SUN...VFR. BREEZY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...JAB

000
FXUS61 KBGM 212028
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
428 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AT 4 PM...A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS OVER THE REGION WITH 100 MB
MIXED LAYER CAPES RANGING FROM 1500-2000. A WEAK WARM FRONT REMAINS
OVER NRN NYS AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN. EVEN THOUGH
FORCING MECHANISMS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH THE
AVAILABLE CAPE WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH LATE EVENING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARILY THREAT.

LATE TONIGHT, ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE
AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVES EAST OF FA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF IN THE MID WEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST. AREA WILL RESIDE WELL INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY MAYBE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER AS T85 DROPS OFF A FEW CELSIUS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LESS CAPE THAN TODAY WILL VALUES RANGING FROM 1000/1500
J/KG. WIND FIELDS REMAIN FAIRLY MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT
JET DYNAMICS ARE BETTER THAN TODAY AS REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. WILL INCREASE POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
MAX THEM OUT AT HIGH CHC. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...H5 TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE MID WEST
WILL REACH THE WESTERN LAKES BY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW PRES WILL WILL
TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT JET DYNAMICS ARE FAIRLY
WEAK AND ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BE NOT NEARLY AS UNSTABLE AS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SFC FEATURE APPROACH THE
AREA LATE WED NIGHT WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY LATE WED NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF FA BY EARLY EVENING
BUT DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. STRONG CAA POST FRONTAL WILL MAKE FOR MUCH COOLER MAXES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN NYS TO LOW TO
MID 60S IN NE PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE
WORKING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS GREAT LAKES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. AS THIS
OCCURS...STRONG BLOCKING SOUTH OF GREENLAND WILL RESULT IN ONLY
A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. THIS WILL ENSURE
ARRIVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WITH A DRY AIRMASS FIRMLY IN
PLACE...EXPECT A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS EASILY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. FROM
THIS VANTAGE POINT...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FROST FORMATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM 2-4 HOUR CONVECTIVE TREND FORECASTS
IS OVERALL GOOD WITH A WELL DEFINED CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON. A LOT OF THE TSRA ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLD-SCT AND PROBABLY WILL NOT AFFECT MUCH TERMINAL OPERATION...BUT
THE HIGHEST CHANCE SEEMS TO BE IN THE KSYR-KRME AREA THROUGH 21Z
BASED ON THE LATEST THERMODYNAMIC AND FORCING PARAMETERS. THESE ARE
THE ONLY LOCATIONS WE HAVE INCLUDED TSRA IN FORECAST ATTM WITH
CONFIDENCE...BUT KBGM-KITH ARE CLOSE AND NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
ACTIVITY IN VCNTY. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THE CHANCES AND CONFIDENCE
IS GENERALLY LOW. BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON...WE BELIEVE THAT MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT
LOOK OVERDONE. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE OVERDONE IN STORM COVERAGE
NOW...AND THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER
MECHANISM TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY IN A STABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT. WILL FOCUS ON A MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION OF
VFR...BECOMING MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN SPOTS DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
LATER TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF PUTTING STORMS IN FORECAST UNTIL
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...OR A SUBSTANTIVE WAVE IS DETECTED. ON
WEDNESDAY...ENVIRONMENT RETURNS TO CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE...BUT
WELL WITHIN WARM SECTOR WITH AGAIN ONLY ISOLD-SCT ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE TOWARD 18Z.

MIXED WIND FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NW-N ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD
OF REGION...TO SW 5-15 KTS SOUTHERN 2/3RDS. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SW 5-10 KTS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI...VFR/MVFR.

SAT-SUN...VFR. BREEZY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...JAB

000
FXUS61 KBGM 211814
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
214 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1100 AM UPDATE...AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
TRACKED ACROSS NRN CWA AT MID MORNING IS NOW OVER EASTERN NEW
YORK. THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED IN THE VCNTY OF A WARM FRONT ALONG
WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. ACTIVITY HAS NOW DIMINISHED
TO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE LAKE PLAIN.

TEMPS LATE THIS MORNING ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH 100MB MIXED LAYER CAPES AT 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE TWIN TIERS.
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH
CAPES APPROACHING 2500-3000 J/KG, VERY UNSTABLE. UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAY ADVECT INTO CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION BUT WE LACK STRONG FORCING MECHANISM
OR ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NRN NY AND POSSIBLY DROP SLIGHTLY
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. ANOTHER
FEATURE APPARENT ON SATELLITE IS OVER EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA,
THIS BOUNDARY MAY ALSO TRIGGER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON, SOME OF
THE MESO SCALE MODELS INDICATING THIS SCENARIO. WILL CONTINUE
WITH INCREASING POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THE HIGH CHC/LOW
LIKELY ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

620 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD POPS IN FOR THUNDER ACRS FAR NRN ZONES EARLY
THIS MRNG. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED ATTM.

320 AM UPDATE...
WMFNT LOCATED ACRS NRN ZONES AT THIS TIME. WK WV IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SPARKING OFF CONVECTION, MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY HOWEVER A
FEW PIN-PRICK STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

WMFNT WL LV CWA IN WARM SECTOR FOR A TIME THIS AFTN WITH DWPTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH VLY
LOCALES INTO THE MID-80S. THIS WL LEAD TO INSTABILITY INCREASING
THRU THE DAY, THO HOW MUCH RMNS TO BE SEEN. 00Z NAM INDICATES CAPES
ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG WHILE 00Z GFS SHOWING AROUND 2000
J/KG. THIS WL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO GENERATE TSTMS, HWVR
TRIGGER WL BE LACKING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN WV ROUNDS THE UPR LVL
TROF.

LATEST MODELS SHOWING WMFNT SINKING BACK THRU THE AREA WHICH WUD
LKLY PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR AFTN CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT MAY LAY OUT BNDRYS DRG THE DAY TDA.
HV KEPT CHC POPS THRU A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SCTD SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED AND AFTER 21Z AS WV GETS CLOSER, HV INCREASED POPS TO LKLY
ACRS NRN ZONES.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONG TO AN ISOLD SVR STORM THIS AFTN WITH
ANYTHING THAT IS ABLE TO FORM. EXPECTING MOSTLY PULSE TSTMS TDA WITH
MEAGER WIND FIELDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM UPDATE...
WV WL RIDE UP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT ALONG WITH S/WV TOPPING THE
RIDGE. HV CONTD LKLY POPS ACRS NRN ZONES THRU 06Z TONIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE AFT THIS TIME. CAPES RMN ELEVATED LEADING TO
THUNDER CONTG.

SHOWER AND TSTM CHCS WL CONTINUE UNTIL FROPA LATE THUR NGT. UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY DRG THE AFTN HRS AND HV BUMPED POPS TO LKLY DURING EACH
DAY. POTENTIAL CONTS TO EXIST FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY.

FROPA OCCURS BY MIDNIGHT THUR NGT. LKLY POPS ARE EXPECTED JUST ALONG
AND AHD OF THE FRONT THEN TAPER OFF TO CHC AFT 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE
WORKING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS GREAT LAKES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. AS THIS
OCCURS...STRONG BLOCKING SOUTH OF GREENLAND WILL RESULT IN ONLY
A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. THIS WILL ENSURE
ARRIVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WITH A DRY AIRMASS FIRMLY IN
PLACE...EXPECT A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS EASILY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. FROM
THIS VANTAGE POINT...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FROST FORMATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM 2-4 HOUR CONVECTIVE TREND FORECASTS
IS OVERALL GOOD WITH A WELL DEFINED CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON. A LOT OF THE TSRA ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLD-SCT AND PROBABLY WILL NOT AFFECT MUCH TERMINAL OPERATION...BUT
THE HIGHEST CHANCE SEEMS TO BE IN THE KSYR-KRME AREA THROUGH 21Z
BASED ON THE LATEST THERMODYNAMIC AND FORCING PARAMETERS. THESE ARE
THE ONLY LOCATIONS WE HAVE INCLUDED TSRA IN FORECAST ATTM WITH
CONFIDENCE...BUT KBGM-KITH ARE CLOSE AND NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
ACTIVITY IN VCNTY. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THE CHANCES AND CONFIDENCE
IS GENERALLY LOW. BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON...WE BELIEVE THAT MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT
LOOK OVERDONE. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE OVERDONE IN STORM COVERAGE
NOW...AND THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER
MECHANISM TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY IN A STABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT. WILL FOCUS ON A MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION OF
VFR...BECOMING MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN SPOTS DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
LATER TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF PUTTING STORMS IN FORECAST UNTIL
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...OR A SUBSTANTIVE WAVE IS DETECTED. ON
WEDNESDAY...ENVIRONMENT RETURNS TO CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE...BUT
WELL WITHIN WARM SECTOR WITH AGAIN ONLY ISOLD-SCT ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE TOWARD 18Z.

MIXED WIND FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NW-N ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD
OF REGION...TO SW 5-15 KTS SOUTHERN 2/3RDS. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SW 5-10 KTS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI...VFR/MVFR.

SAT-SUN...VFR. BREEZY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/RRM
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...JAB

000
FXUS61 KBGM 211555
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1155 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1100 AM UPDATE...AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
TRACKED ACROSS NRN CWA AT MID MORNING IS NOW OVER EASTERN NEW
YORK. THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED IN THE VCNTY OF A WARM FRONT ALONG
WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. ACTIVITY HAS NOW DIMINISHED
TO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE LAKE PLAIN.

TEMPS LATE THIS MORNING ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH 100MB MIXED LAYER CAPES AT 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE TWIN TIERS.
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH
CAPES APPROACHING 2500-3000 J/KG, VERY UNSTABLE. UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAY ADVECT INTO CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION BUT WE LACK STRONG FORCING MECHANISM
OR ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NRN NY AND POSSIBLY DROP SLIGHTLY
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. ANOTHER
FEATURE APPARENT ON SATELLITE IS OVER EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA,
THIS BOUNDARY MAY ALSO TRIGGER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON, SOME OF
THE MESO SCALE MODELS INDICATING THIS SCENARIO. WILL CONTINUE
WITH INCREASING POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THE HIGH CHC/LOW
LIKELY ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

620 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD POPS IN FOR THUNDER ACRS FAR NRN ZONES EARLY
THIS MRNG. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED ATTM.

320 AM UPDATE...
WMFNT LOCATED ACRS NRN ZONES AT THIS TIME. WK WV IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SPARKING OFF CONVECTION, MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY HOWEVER A
FEW PIN-PRICK STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

WMFNT WL LV CWA IN WARM SECTOR FOR A TIME THIS AFTN WITH DWPTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH VLY
LOCALES INTO THE MID-80S. THIS WL LEAD TO INSTABILITY INCREASING
THRU THE DAY, THO HOW MUCH RMNS TO BE SEEN. 00Z NAM INDICATES CAPES
ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG WHILE 00Z GFS SHOWING AROUND 2000
J/KG. THIS WL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO GENERATE TSTMS, HWVR
TRIGGER WL BE LACKING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN WV ROUNDS THE UPR LVL
TROF.

LATEST MODELS SHOWING WMFNT SINKING BACK THRU THE AREA WHICH WUD
LKLY PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR AFTN CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT MAY LAY OUT BNDRYS DRG THE DAY TDA.
HV KEPT CHC POPS THRU A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SCTD SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED AND AFTER 21Z AS WV GETS CLOSER, HV INCREASED POPS TO LKLY
ACRS NRN ZONES.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONG TO AN ISOLD SVR STORM THIS AFTN WITH
ANYTHING THAT IS ABLE TO FORM. EXPECTING MOSTLY PULSE TSTMS TDA WITH
MEAGER WIND FIELDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM UPDATE...
WV WL RIDE UP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT ALONG WITH S/WV TOPPING THE
RIDGE. HV CONTD LKLY POPS ACRS NRN ZONES THRU 06Z TONIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE AFT THIS TIME. CAPES RMN ELEVATED LEADING TO
THUNDER CONTG.

SHOWER AND TSTM CHCS WL CONTINUE UNTIL FROPA LATE THUR NGT. UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY DRG THE AFTN HRS AND HV BUMPED POPS TO LKLY DURING EACH
DAY. POTENTIAL CONTS TO EXIST FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY.

FROPA OCCURS BY MIDNIGHT THUR NGT. LKLY POPS ARE EXPECTED JUST ALONG
AND AHD OF THE FRONT THEN TAPER OFF TO CHC AFT 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE
WORKING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS GREAT LAKES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. AS THIS
OCCURS...STRONG BLOCKING SOUTH OF GREENLAND WILL RESULT IN ONLY
A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. THIS WILL ENSURE
ARRIVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WITH A DRY AIRMASS FIRMLY IN
PLACE...EXPECT A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS EASILY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. FROM
THIS VANTAGE POINT...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FROST FORMATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE TAF PERIOD IN REGARDS TO
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY VFR OVERALL. OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS...THEN BACK TO
VARIABLE TONIGHT. WEAK WAVE WILL CARRY THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG LIFTING SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND HEATING OF
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SPROUTING SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPO GROUPS
ASSIGNED TO THE BEST POTENTIAL TIMES FOR EACH TAF SITE
ACCORDINGLY /EXCEPT KAVP/. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
STRONGER WAVE THIS EVENING...AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED VIA PROB30
GROUPS.

OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI/SAT...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/RRM
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...CMG

000
FXUS61 KBGM 211516
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1116 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1100 AM UPDATE...AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
TRACKED ACROSS NRN CWA AT MID MORNING IS NOW OVER EASTERN NEW
YORK. THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED IN THE VCNTY OF A WARM FRONT ALONG
WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. ACTIVITY HAS NOW DIMINISHED
TO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE LAKE PLAIN.

TEMPS LATE THIS MORNING ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH 100MB MIXED LAYER CAPES AT 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE TWIN TIERS.
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH
CAPES APPROACHING 2500-3000 J/KG, VERY UNSTABLE. UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAY ADVECT INTO CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION BUT WE LACK STRONG FORCING MECHANISM
OR ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NRN NY AND POSSIBLY DROP SLIGHTLY
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. ANOTHER
FEATURE APPARENT ON SATELLITE IS OVER EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA,
THIS BOUNDARY MAY ALSO TRIGGER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON, SOME OF
THE MESO SCALE MODELS INDICATING THIS SCENARIO. WILL CONTINUE
WITH INCREASING POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THE HIGH CHC/LOW
LIKELY ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

620 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD POPS IN FOR THUNDER ACRS FAR NRN ZONES EARLY
THIS MRNG. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED ATTM.

320 AM UPDATE...
WMFNT LOCATED ACRS NRN ZONES AT THIS TIME. WK WV IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SPARKING OFF CONVECTION, MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY HOWEVER A
FEW PIN-PRICK STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

WMFNT WL LV CWA IN WARM SECTOR FOR A TIME THIS AFTN WITH DWPTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH VLY
LOCALES INTO THE MID-80S. THIS WL LEAD TO INSTABILITY INCREASING
THRU THE DAY, THO HOW MUCH RMNS TO BE SEEN. 00Z NAM INDICATES CAPES
ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG WHILE 00Z GFS SHOWING AROUND 2000
J/KG. THIS WL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO GENERATE TSTMS, HWVR
TRIGGER WL BE LACKING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN WV ROUNDS THE UPR LVL
TROF.

LATEST MODELS SHOWING WMFNT SINKING BACK THRU THE AREA WHICH WUD
LKLY PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR AFTN CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT MAY LAY OUT BNDRYS DRG THE DAY TDA.
HV KEPT CHC POPS THRU A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SCTD SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED AND AFTER 21Z AS WV GETS CLOSER, HV INCREASED POPS TO LKLY
ACRS NRN ZONES.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONG TO AN ISOLD SVR STORM THIS AFTN WITH
ANYTHING THAT IS ABLE TO FORM. EXPECTING MOSTLY PULSE TSTMS TDA WITH
MEAGER WIND FIELDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM UPDATE...
WV WL RIDE UP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT ALONG WITH S/WV TOPPING THE
RIDGE. HV CONTD LKLY POPS ACRS NRN ZONES THRU 06Z TONIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE AFT THIS TIME. CAPES RMN ELEVATED LEADING TO
THUNDER CONTG.

SHOWER AND TSTM CHCS WL CONTINUE UNTIL FROPA LATE THUR NGT. UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY DRG THE AFTN HRS AND HV BUMPED POPS TO LKLY DURING EACH
DAY. POTENTIAL CONTS TO EXIST FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY.

FROPA OCCURS BY MIDNIGHT THUR NGT. LKLY POPS ARE EXPECTED JUST ALONG
AND AHD OF THE FRONT THEN TAPER OFF TO CHC AFT 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
BUILDING LATE AS THIS TROF LIFTS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
FROST BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS AND MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SFC, POST COLD FRONT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH BEST CHC FOR THUNDER DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY THE CHC
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND NE PA. REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY
TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRES FROM CENTRAL CANADA
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OUR VCNTY BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE TAF PERIOD IN REGARDS TO
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY VFR OVERALL. OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS...THEN BACK TO
VARIABLE TONIGHT. WEAK WAVE WILL CARRY THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG LIFTING SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND HEATING OF
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SPROUTING SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPO GROUPS
ASSIGNED TO THE BEST POTENTIAL TIMES FOR EACH TAF SITE
ACCORDINGLY /EXCEPT KAVP/. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
STRONGER WAVE THIS EVENING...AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED VIA PROB30
GROUPS.

OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI/SAT...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/RRM
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP

000
FXUS61 KBGM 211115
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
715 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED,. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
620 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD POPS IN FOR THUNDER ACRS FAR NRN ZONES EARLY
THIS MRNG. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED ATTM.

320 AM UPDATE...
WMFNT LOCATED ACRS NRN ZONES AT THIS TIME. WK WV IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SPARKING OFF CONVECTION, MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY HOWEVER A
FEW PIN-PRICK STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

WMFNT WL LV CWA IN WARM SECTOR FOR A TIME THIS AFTN WITH DWPTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH VLY
LOCALES INTO THE MID-80S. THIS WL LEAD TO INSTABILITY INCREASING
THRU THE DAY, THO HOW MUCH RMNS TO BE SEEN. 00Z NAM INDICATES CAPES
ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG WHILE 00Z GFS SHOWING AROUND 2000
J/KG. THIS WL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO GENERATE TSTMS, HWVR
TRIGGER WL BE LACKING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN WV ROUNDS THE UPR LVL
TROF.

LATEST MODELS SHOWING WMFNT SINKING BACK THRU THE AREA WHICH WUD
LKLY PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR AFTN CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT MAY LAY OUT BNDRYS DRG THE DAY TDA.
HV KEPT CHC POPS THRU A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SCTD SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED AND AFTER 21Z AS WV GETS CLOSER, HV INCREASED POPS TO LKLY
ACRS NRN ZONES.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONG TO AN ISOLD SVR STORM THIS AFTN WITH
ANYTHING THAT IS ABLE TO FORM. EXPECTING MOSTLY PULSE TSTMS TDA WITH
MEAGER WIND FIELDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM UPDATE...
WV WL RIDE UP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT ALONG WITH S/WV TOPPING THE
RIDGE. HV CONTD LKLY POPS ACRS NRN ZONES THRU 06Z TONIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE AFT THIS TIME. CAPES RMN ELEVATED LEADING TO
THUNDER CONTG.

SHOWER AND TSTM CHCS WL CONTINUE UNTIL FROPA LATE THUR NGT. UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY DRG THE AFTN HRS AND HV BUMPED POPS TO LKLY DURING EACH
DAY. POTENTIAL CONTS TO EXIST FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY.

FROPA OCCURS BY MIDNIGHT THUR NGT. LKLY POPS ARE EXPECTED JUST ALONG
AND AHD OF THE FRONT THEN TAPER OFF TO CHC AFT 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
BUILDING LATE AS THIS TROF LIFTS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
FROST BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS AND MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SFC, POST COLD FRONT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH BEST CHC FOR THUNDER DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY THE CHC
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND NE PA. REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY
TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRES FROM CENTRAL CANADA
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OUR VCNTY BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE TAF PERIOD IN REGARDS TO
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY VFR OVERALL. OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS...THEN BACK TO
VARIABLE TONIGHT. WEAK WAVE WILL CARRY THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG LIFTING SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND HEATING OF
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SPROUTING SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPO GROUPS
ASSIGNED TO THE BEST POTENTIAL TIMES FOR EACH TAF SITE
ACCORDINGLY /EXCEPT KAVP/. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
STRONGER WAVE THIS EVENING...AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED VIA PROB30
GROUPS.

OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI/SAT...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP

000
FXUS61 KBGM 211023
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
623 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED,. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
620 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD POPS IN FOR THUNDER ACRS FAR NRN ZONES EARLY
THIS MRNG. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED ATTM.

320 AM UPDATE...
WMFNT LOCATED ACRS NRN ZONES AT THIS TIME. WK WV IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SPARKING OFF CONVECTION, MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY HOWEVER A
FEW PIN-PRICK STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

WMFNT WL LV CWA IN WARM SECTOR FOR A TIME THIS AFTN WITH DWPTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH VLY
LOCALES INTO THE MID-80S. THIS WL LEAD TO INSTABILITY INCREASING
THRU THE DAY, THO HOW MUCH RMNS TO BE SEEN. 00Z NAM INDICATES CAPES
ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG WHILE 00Z GFS SHOWING AROUND 2000
J/KG. THIS WL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO GENERATE TSTMS, HWVR
TRIGGER WL BE LACKING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN WV ROUNDS THE UPR LVL
TROF.

LATEST MODELS SHOWING WMFNT SINKING BACK THRU THE AREA WHICH WUD
LKLY PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR AFTN CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT MAY LAY OUT BNDRYS DRG THE DAY TDA.
HV KEPT CHC POPS THRU A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SCTD SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED AND AFTER 21Z AS WV GETS CLOSER, HV INCREASED POPS TO LKLY
ACRS NRN ZONES.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONG TO AN ISOLD SVR STORM THIS AFTN WITH
ANYTHING THAT IS ABLE TO FORM. EXPECTING MOSTLY PULSE TSTMS TDA WITH
MEAGER WIND FIELDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM UPDATE...
WV WL RIDE UP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT ALONG WITH S/WV TOPPING THE
RIDGE. HV CONTD LKLY POPS ACRS NRN ZONES THRU 06Z TONIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE AFT THIS TIME. CAPES RMN ELEVATED LEADING TO
THUNDER CONTG.

SHOWER AND TSTM CHCS WL CONTINUE UNTIL FROPA LATE THUR NGT. UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY DRG THE AFTN HRS AND HV BUMPED POPS TO LKLY DURING EACH
DAY. POTENTIAL CONTS TO EXIST FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY.

FROPA OCCURS BY MIDNIGHT THUR NGT. LKLY POPS ARE EXPECTED JUST ALONG
AND AHD OF THE FRONT THEN TAPER OFF TO CHC AFT 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
BUILDING LATE AS THIS TROF LIFTS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
FROST BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS AND MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SFC, POST COLD FRONT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH BEST CHC FOR THUNDER DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY THE CHC
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND NE PA. REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY
TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRES FROM CENTRAL CANADA
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OUR VCNTY BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE TAF PERIOD IN REGARDS TO
PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY VFR OVERALL. INITIAL LINE OF STORMS CARRYING THROUGH KSYR
JUST BEFORE TAF TIME WITH GUSTY WNW WIND SHIFT FROM EARLIER STORMS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND...EN ROUTE FOR KRME. IN WAKE OF THOSE
STORMS...FAIRLY QUIET INITIALLY TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS. WEAK WAVE WILL
CARRY THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE SPROUTING SOME THUNDERSTORMS. EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT UNCERTAIN BUT PROB30 GROUPS ASSIGNED TO THE BEST
POTENTIAL TIMES FOR EACH TAF SITE ACCORDINGLY. ADDITIONAL STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A STRONGER WAVE 02Z-06Z WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...

LATE WED NIGHT/THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI/SAT...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP

000
FXUS61 KBGM 210726
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
326 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED,. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
320 AM UPDATE...
WMFNT LOCATED ACRS NRN ZONES AT THIS TIME. WK WV IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SPARKING OFF CONVECTION, MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY HOWEVER A
FEW PIN-PRICK STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

WMFNT WL LV CWA IN WARM SECTOR FOR A TIME THIS AFTN WITH DWPTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH VLY
LOCALES INTO THE MID-80S. THIS WL LEAD TO INSTABILITY INCREASING
THRU THE DAY, THO HOW MUCH RMNS TO BE SEEN. 00Z NAM INDICATES CAPES
ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG WHILE 00Z GFS SHOWING AROUND 2000
J/KG. THIS WL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO GENERATE TSTMS, HWVR
TRIGGER WL BE LACKING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN WV ROUNDS THE UPR LVL
TROF.

LATEST MODELS SHOWING WMFNT SINKING BACK THRU THE AREA WHICH WUD
LKLY PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR AFTN CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT MAY LAY OUT BNDRYS DRG THE DAY TDA.
HV KEPT CHC POPS THRU A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SCTD SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED AND AFTER 21Z AS WV GETS CLOSER, HV INCREASED POPS TO LKLY
ACRS NRN ZONES.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONG TO AN ISOLD SVR STORM THIS AFTN WITH
ANYTHING THAT IS ABLE TO FORM. EXPECTING MOSTLY PULSE TSTMS TDA WITH
MEAGER WIND FIELDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM UPDATE...
WV WL RIDE UP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT ALONG WITH S/WV TOPPING THE
RIDGE. HV CONTD LKLY POPS ACRS NRN ZONES THRU 06Z TONIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE AFT THIS TIME. CAPES RMN ELEVATED LEADING TO
THUNDER CONTG.

SHOWER AND TSTM CHCS WL CONTINUE UNTIL FROPA LATE THUR NGT. UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY DRG THE AFTN HRS AND HV BUMPED POPS TO LKLY DURING EACH
DAY. POTENTIAL CONTS TO EXIST FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY.

FROPA OCCURS BY MIDNIGHT THUR NGT. LKLY POPS ARE EXPECTED JUST ALONG
AND AHD OF THE FRONT THEN TAPER OFF TO CHC AFT 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
BUILDING LATE AS THIS TROF LIFTS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
FROST BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS AND MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SFC, POST COLD FRONT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH BEST CHC FOR THUNDER DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY THE CHC
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND NE PA. REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY
TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRES FROM CENTRAL CANADA
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OUR VCNTY BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE TAF PERIOD IN REGARDS TO
PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY VFR OVERALL. INITIAL LINE OF STORMS CARRYING THROUGH KSYR
JUST BEFORE TAF TIME WITH GUSTY WNW WIND SHIFT FROM EARLIER STORMS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND...EN ROUTE FOR KRME. IN WAKE OF THOSE
STORMS...FAIRLY QUIET INITIALLY TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS. WEAK WAVE WILL
CARRY THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE SPROUTING SOME THUNDERSTORMS. EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT UNCERTAIN BUT PROB30 GROUPS ASSIGNED TO THE BEST
POTENTIAL TIMES FOR EACH TAF SITE ACCORDINGLY. ADDITIONAL STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A STRONGER WAVE 02Z-06Z WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...

LATE WED NIGHT/THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI/SAT...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP

000
FXUS61 KBGM 210251
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1051 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM WEATHER PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE 80 AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD WRN NY WITH LITTLE SIGN OF
WEAKENING. MESO MODELS DO NOT AGREE WHETHER IT WILL GET HERE OR
NOT. LOCALLY STILL UNSTABLE. UPPED POPS FOR MID TO 3 AM THEN
DROPPED THEM. CONSENSUS WOULD HAVE THE LINE CONTINUING INTO WRN NY
THEN HEAD EAST ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN. LITTLE MAKING IT TO THE SRN
TIER AND NE PA. NO ADJUSTMENTS TO TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR 80 AND DEW POINTS
INTO THE 60S. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SO FAR HAVE NOT OCCURRED.
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER AND SOME DRY AIR INDICATED ON
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO BE VERY
ISOLATED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BASED ON THIS HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW 20 PCT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING... PROBABLY
REACHING WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH CENTRAL NY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT COULD
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAWN... ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN RIM OF A LARGE- SCALE
UPPER RIDGE... PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN
MANY WAYS THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE MORE
TYPICAL OF MID-SUMMER INSTEAD OF MAY. THE PRIMARY LOW- LEVEL SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL START OUT NORTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT BUT MAY SAG SOUTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... AIDED BY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PUT DOWN BY ANY CONVECTION.

THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEAKENING AND PUSHING EAST OF
OUR AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THESE SHOWERS COULD HELP
TO ESTABLISH A LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NY...
WHICH MAY HELP TO TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST
AROUND THE NORTHERN RIM OF AN UPPER RIDGE. MODELS DISAGREE
SOMEWHAT ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... BUT WITH A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT THAT CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG WOULD BE REASONABLE. GFS
FORECAST VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG IN NORTHEAST PA ARE BASED ON SFC
DEW POINTS REACHING ABOVE 70 AND DO NOT APPEAR REASONABLE. HOWEVER
EVEN THE 1000 J/KG SCENARIO WOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OF A FEW
HEALTHY STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30 KTS WOULD BE
MARGINALLY LARGE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS... AND THEREFORE OUR AREA IS OUTLINED IN A SEE TEXT AREA IN
THE LATEST SPC GUIDANCE. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS ALSO A TRICKY ISSUE
FOR TOMORROW. LATEST WPC PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING POPS
NEAR 80 PCT BASED ON ENSEMBLE DATA... HOWEVER WITH WEAK WARM
SECTOR-TYPE FORCING SUSPECT THAT THE COVERAGE MAY NOT BE THAT
LARGE. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY AND LOW CHC
POPS FOR NORTHEAST PA.

BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY... WITH
CAPE VALUES GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR 25 TO 30
KTS IN NORTHEAST PA AND 35 TO 40 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL NY. QUESTION
WILL BE WHETHER A TRIGGER WILL BE AVAILABLE TO KICK OFF STORMS IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OVERALL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH WSW FLOW ALOFT AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS... THIS TIME
WITH A LITTLE MORE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL PROBABLY A FUNCTION OF FRONTAL TIMING...
WITH AN AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE MORE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE
WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
BUILDING LATE AS THIS TROF LIFTS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
FROST BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS AND MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SFC, POST COLD FRONT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH BEST CHC FOR THUNDER DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY THE CHC
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND NE PA. REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY
TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRES FROM CENTRAL CANADA
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OUR VCNTY BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE TAF PERIOD IN REGARDS TO
PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
VFR OVERALL. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO KAVP
AND KBGM FOR POSSIBLE LOW END MVFR CIG FOR A TIME EARLY
MORNING...AND PERHAPS MVFR CIG SNEAKING FOR KRME AS WELL.
ALSO...KELM MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING MVFR VALLEY FOG.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING WEST- SOUTHWEST
AT 5-10 KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT TOWARDS KSYR-KRME DUE TO INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED...WITH
SOME EVEN DEPICTING A LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA NOW /00Z/
WHICH OBVIOUSLY IS NOT OCCURRING. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE
EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON...SO PROB30 TSRA
GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED DURING THE MORE LIKELY TIMES IN MOST
TAFS ACCORDINGLY. TAFS MAY BE AMENDED AS NECESSARY SHOULD
THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO FIRE UPSTREAM LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP

000
FXUS61 KBGM 202354
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
754 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED... ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR 80 AND DEW POINTS
INTO THE 60S. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SO FAR HAVE NOT OCCURRED.
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER AND SOME DRY AIR INDICATED ON
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO BE VERY
ISOLATED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BASED ON THIS HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW 20 PCT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING... PROBABLY
REACHING WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH CENTRAL NY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT COULD
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAWN... ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN RIM OF A LARGE- SCALE
UPPER RIDGE... PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN
MANY WAYS THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE MORE
TYPICAL OF MID-SUMMER INSTEAD OF MAY. THE PRIMARY LOW- LEVEL SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL START OUT NORTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT BUT MAY SAG SOUTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... AIDED BY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PUT DOWN BY ANY CONVECTION.

THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEAKENING AND PUSHING EAST OF
OUR AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THESE SHOWERS COULD HELP
TO ESTABLISH A LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NY...
WHICH MAY HELP TO TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST
AROUND THE NORTHERN RIM OF AN UPPER RIDGE. MODELS DISAGREE
SOMEWHAT ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... BUT WITH A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT THAT CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG WOULD BE REASONABLE. GFS
FORECAST VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG IN NORTHEAST PA ARE BASED ON SFC
DEW POINTS REACHING ABOVE 70 AND DO NOT APPEAR REASONABLE. HOWEVER
EVEN THE 1000 J/KG SCENARIO WOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OF A FEW
HEALTHY STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30 KTS WOULD BE
MARGINALLY LARGE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS... AND THEREFORE OUR AREA IS OUTLINED IN A SEE TEXT AREA IN
THE LATEST SPC GUIDANCE. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS ALSO A TRICKY ISSUE
FOR TOMORROW. LATEST WPC PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING POPS
NEAR 80 PCT BASED ON ENSEMBLE DATA... HOWEVER WITH WEAK WARM
SECTOR-TYPE FORCING SUSPECT THAT THE COVERAGE MAY NOT BE THAT
LARGE. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY AND LOW CHC
POPS FOR NORTHEAST PA.

BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY... WITH
CAPE VALUES GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR 25 TO 30
KTS IN NORTHEAST PA AND 35 TO 40 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL NY. QUESTION
WILL BE WHETHER A TRIGGER WILL BE AVAILABLE TO KICK OFF STORMS IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OVERALL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH WSW FLOW ALOFT AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS... THIS TIME
WITH A LITTLE MORE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL PROBABLY A FUNCTION OF FRONTAL TIMING...
WITH AN AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE MORE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE
WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
BUILDING LATE AS THIS TROF LIFTS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
FROST BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS AND MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SFC, POST COLD FRONT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH BEST CHC FOR THUNDER DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY THE CHC
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND NE PA. REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY
TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRES FROM CENTRAL CANADA
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OUR VCNTY BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE TAF PERIOD IN REGARDS TO
PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
VFR OVERALL. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO KAVP
AND KBGM FOR POSSIBLE LOW END MVFR CIG FOR A TIME EARLY
MORNING...AND PERHAPS MVFR CIG SNEAKING FOR KRME AS WELL.
ALSO...KELM MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING MVFR VALLEY FOG.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING WEST- SOUTHWEST
AT 5-10 KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT TOWARDS KSYR-KRME DUE TO INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED...WITH
SOME EVEN DEPICTING A LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA NOW /00Z/
WHICH OBVIOUSLY IS NOT OCCURRING. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE
EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON...SO PROB30 TSRA
GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED DURING THE MORE LIKELY TIMES IN MOST
TAFS ACCORDINGLY. TAFS MAY BE AMENDED AS NECESSARY SHOULD
THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO FIRE UPSTREAM LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP

000
FXUS61 KBGM 201942
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
342 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED... ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR 80 AND DEW POINTS
INTO THE 60S. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SO FAR HAVE NOT OCCURRED.
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER AND SOME DRY AIR INDICATED ON
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO BE VERY
ISOLATED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BASED ON THIS HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW 20 PCT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING... PROBABLY
REACHING WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH CENTRAL NY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT COULD
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAWN... ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN RIM OF A LARGE- SCALE
UPPER RIDGE... PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN
MANY WAYS THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE MORE
TYPICAL OF MID-SUMMER INSTEAD OF MAY. THE PRIMARY LOW- LEVEL SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL START OUT NORTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT BUT MAY SAG SOUTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... AIDED BY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PUT DOWN BY ANY CONVECTION.

THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEAKENING AND PUSHING EAST OF
OUR AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THESE SHOWERS COULD HELP
TO ESTABLISH A LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NY...
WHICH MAY HELP TO TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST
AROUND THE NORTHERN RIM OF AN UPPER RIDGE. MODELS DISAGREE
SOMEWHAT ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... BUT WITH A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT THAT CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG WOULD BE REASONABLE. GFS
FORECAST VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG IN NORTHEAST PA ARE BASED ON SFC
DEW POINTS REACHING ABOVE 70 AND DO NOT APPEAR REASONABLE. HOWEVER
EVEN THE 1000 J/KG SCENARIO WOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OF A FEW
HEALTHY STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30 KTS WOULD BE
MARGINALLY LARGE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS... AND THEREFORE OUR AREA IS OUTLINED IN A SEE TEXT AREA IN
THE LATEST SPC GUIDANCE. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS ALSO A TRICKY ISSUE
FOR TOMORROW. LATEST WPC PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING POPS
NEAR 80 PCT BASED ON ENSEMBLE DATA... HOWEVER WITH WEAK WARM
SECTOR-TYPE FORCING SUSPECT THAT THE COVERAGE MAY NOT BE THAT
LARGE. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY AND LOW CHC
POPS FOR NORTHEAST PA.

BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY... WITH
CAPE VALUES GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR 25 TO 30
KTS IN NORTHEAST PA AND 35 TO 40 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL NY. QUESTION
WILL BE WHETHER A TRIGGER WILL BE AVAILABLE TO KICK OFF STORMS IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OVERALL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH WSW FLOW ALOFT AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS... THIS TIME
WITH A LITTLE MORE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL PROBABLY A FUNCTION OF FRONTAL TIMING...
WITH AN AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE MORE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE
WEATHER.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
BUILDING LATE AS THIS TROF LIFTS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
FROST BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS AND MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SFC, POST COLD FRONT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH BEST CHC FOR THUNDER DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY THE CHC
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND NE PA. REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY
TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRES FROM CENTRAL CANADA
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OUR VCNTY BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE VFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND IN
GENERAL WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT, MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KELM DUE TO VALLEY FOG AND KAVP WITH
POSSIBLE MARINE LAYER.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION PRIMARILY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WEAK BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN NY MAY BECOME ACTIVE WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS
ATTM AS THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS AFTER 18Z BUT OVERALL A LOW
CONFIDENCE CONVECTIVE EVENT UNFOLDING TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT
5-10 KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM

000
FXUS61 KBGM 201832
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
232 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR OUR AREA. A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE CLOSE TO OUR AREA. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE WARMER WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO
NEAR 80 THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BUT NO INDICATIONS OF ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INDICATE INCREASING IN INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO
800-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING LOOKS WEAK WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH. SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER CENTRAL NY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE LESS THAN 30
PERCENT. WEAK WIND FIELDS WOULD MEAN THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE OF THE PULSE VARIETY WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT LOW. WITH
CLEARING TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 70S AND MANY PLACES
WILL REACH NEAR 80 THIS AFTERNOON.


1000 AM UPDATE...MADE MINOR CHANGES TO SHOW MORE OF A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS OUR AREA NOW AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CLOSEST AREA
OF SHOWERS OVER NNY WILL SAFELY PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL NOT
SEEING ANY BIG TRIGGERS FOR SHOWERS OR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEMS GREAT. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOMETHING
CROSSING LAKE ERIE LATE IN THE DAY AND IT DOES MATCH UP NOW WITH A
DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION OVER LOWER MICHIGAN SO WE WILL WATCH
THIS CLOSELY. IN ADDITION WHILE DRY NOW...VIS SATELLITE DOES SHOW
SOME MORE LUMPY OR CONVECTIVE LOOKING CUMULUS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO SO THIS MAY TURN INTO SOMETHING IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AGAIN NOT MUCH EXPECTED BUT ENOUGH AROUND TO
WARRANT AT LEAST A MENTION THIS PM. UNLIKE YESTERDAY SUNSHINE OVER
IS ALREADY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK TO REACH THE 70S.
THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...



4 AM UPDATE...
WK SFC LOW LOCATED ACRS SRN QUEBEC WL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TDA AS
UL WV PULLS EAST. AS IT DOES SO A WK SFC TROF WL APPCH NRN ZONES
THIS AFTN BFR IT WASHES OUT. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG CLOSED LOW
ALOFT WL PINWHEEL ACRS THE NRN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
LOW WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR YDA`S TORNADO OUTBREAK ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS IS ESSENTIALLY BLOCKED IN PLACE BY RIDGING TO THE EAST AND
WEST. LOW PROGGED TO BE STACKED THRU TUESDAY SWINGING A WMFNT THRU
THE AREA ON MON NGT.

FOR TDA, PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS SRN ZONES AS
MARINE LYR RMNS THRU AT LEAST 12Z. AFT THIS TIME, WINDS BCM MORE
SWRLY LEADING TO SOME IMPROVEMENT IN LOW CLDS. WHILE LOW-LVL
MOISTURE WL RMN IN PLACE THIS AFTN, VRY LITTLE FRCG WL BE AVAILABLE
FOR ANY NOTICEABLE PCPN TDA AND WITH MODELS CONTG TO INDICATE
WIDESPREAD QPF ACRS THE AREA AND GIVEN THEIR PERFORMANCES THE LAST 2
DAYS, HV LWRD POPS OVR ENTIRE CWA TO ISOLD AT BEST. IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLD RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER AND HV INCLUDED MENTION TWD
NOON UP NR BNDRY SLIPPING THRU AND OVRSPRDNG ENTIRE AREA THRU ABOUT
21Z. OF COURSE, LIMITATIONS EXIST STRICTLY FM EXTENSIVE CLD CVR
ALONG WITH WK FRCG BUT FEEL CHCS ARE NOT COMPLETELY NIL SO HV CONTD
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CHC FOR THE AFTN.

FOR TONIGHT, WMFNT LIFTS THRU WITH OVRNGT LOWS EXPECTED TO RMN ARND
60F. DWPTS WL ONLY DROP INTO THE U50S. SKIES WL RANGE FM
PRTLY-MOCLDY DRG THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH BNDRY IN VICINITY. SLGT CHC
POPS THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT HRS THEN SLOWLY INCRSNG TWD DAWN FM THE
WEST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
SW FLOW CONTS ON TUESDAY PER 00Z NAM AND ECMWF. MODELS PLACE CWA
SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR DRG THE DAY. H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN
DRG THE AFTN AS PLAINS LOW BEGINS TO EJECT TO THE EAST. THIS WL
ALLOW WK S/WV TO IMPACT AREA DRG THE DAY, LEADING TO LKLY POPS AFT
18Z. AIRMASS WL LKLY DESTABILIZE IN WM SECTOR LEADING TO CAPES ARND
1000 J/KG BASED ON TEMPS IN THE LWR 80S AND DWPTS RISING INTO THE
MID-60S.

CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES THRU THE DAY ON WED AS WMFNT
RMNS TO OUR NORTH AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASES. DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF BNDRY, SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE LKLY AT TIMES DRG THE DAY
ACRS CNTRL NY CNTYS WHILE ONLY SCTD THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED, THUS HV
WORDED GRIDS AS LKLY SHOWERS AND CHANCE THUNDER.

MAV NUMBERS LOOK WAY TOO WARM FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
GFS/S LACK OF CLD CVR. THINKING IS THAT MET NUMBERS WILL BE CLOSER
TO REALITY AND VLY LOCALES MAY HIT 80F BUT HILLTOPS WL RMN IN THE
U70S.

HV CONTD LKLY POPS WED NGT AS CD FNT APPCHS WRN NY AND H5 LOW EJECTS
INTO GREAT LKS, FLINGING WVS AT TIMES THRU THE PD. HV MADE VRY FEW
CHGS TO PRVS GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
BUILDING LATE AS THIS TROF LIFTS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
FROST BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS AND MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SFC, POST COLD FRONT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH BEST CHC FOR THUNDER DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY THE CHC
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND NE PA. REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY
TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRES FROM CENTRAL CANADA
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OUR VCNTY BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE VFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND IN
GENERAL WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT, MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KELM DUE TO VALLEY FOG AND KAVP WITH
POSSIBLE MARINE LAYER.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION PRIMARILY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WEAK BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN NY MAY BECOME ACTIVE WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS
ATTM AS THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS AFTER 18Z BUT OVERALL A LOW
CONFIDENCE CONVECTIVE EVENT UNFOLDING TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT
5-10 KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...MSE/PVN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN/PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM

000
FXUS61 KBGM 201725
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
125 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR OUR AREA. A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE CLOSE TO OUR AREA. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE WARMER WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO
NEAR 80 THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BUT NO INDICATIONS OF ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INDICATE INCREASING IN INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO
800-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING LOOKS WEAK WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH. SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER CENTRAL NY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE LESS THAN 30
PERCENT. WEAK WIND FIELDS WOULD MEAN THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE OF THE PULSE VARIETY WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT LOW. WITH
CLEARING TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 70S AND MANY PLACES
WILL REACH NEAR 80 THIS AFTERNOON.


1000 AM UPDATE...MADE MINOR CHANGES TO SHOW MORE OF A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS OUR AREA NOW AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CLOSEST AREA
OF SHOWERS OVER NNY WILL SAFELY PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL NOT
SEEING ANY BIG TRIGGERS FOR SHOWERS OR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEMS GREAT. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOMETHING
CROSSING LAKE ERIE LATE IN THE DAY AND IT DOES MATCH UP NOW WITH A
DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION OVER LOWER MICHIGAN SO WE WILL WATCH
THIS CLOSELY. IN ADDITION WHILE DRY NOW...VIS SATELLITE DOES SHOW
SOME MORE LUMPY OR CONVECTIVE LOOKING CUMULUS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO SO THIS MAY TURN INTO SOMETHING IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AGAIN NOT MUCH EXPECTED BUT ENOUGH AROUND TO
WARRANT AT LEAST A MENTION THIS PM. UNLIKE YESTERDAY SUNSHINE OVER
IS ALREADY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK TO REACH THE 70S.
THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...



4 AM UPDATE...
WK SFC LOW LOCATED ACRS SRN QUEBEC WL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TDA AS
UL WV PULLS EAST. AS IT DOES SO A WK SFC TROF WL APPCH NRN ZONES
THIS AFTN BFR IT WASHES OUT. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG CLOSED LOW
ALOFT WL PINWHEEL ACRS THE NRN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
LOW WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR YDA`S TORNADO OUTBREAK ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS IS ESSENTIALLY BLOCKED IN PLACE BY RIDGING TO THE EAST AND
WEST. LOW PROGGED TO BE STACKED THRU TUESDAY SWINGING A WMFNT THRU
THE AREA ON MON NGT.

FOR TDA, PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS SRN ZONES AS
MARINE LYR RMNS THRU AT LEAST 12Z. AFT THIS TIME, WINDS BCM MORE
SWRLY LEADING TO SOME IMPROVEMENT IN LOW CLDS. WHILE LOW-LVL
MOISTURE WL RMN IN PLACE THIS AFTN, VRY LITTLE FRCG WL BE AVAILABLE
FOR ANY NOTICEABLE PCPN TDA AND WITH MODELS CONTG TO INDICATE
WIDESPREAD QPF ACRS THE AREA AND GIVEN THEIR PERFORMANCES THE LAST 2
DAYS, HV LWRD POPS OVR ENTIRE CWA TO ISOLD AT BEST. IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLD RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER AND HV INCLUDED MENTION TWD
NOON UP NR BNDRY SLIPPING THRU AND OVRSPRDNG ENTIRE AREA THRU ABOUT
21Z. OF COURSE, LIMITATIONS EXIST STRICTLY FM EXTENSIVE CLD CVR
ALONG WITH WK FRCG BUT FEEL CHCS ARE NOT COMPLETELY NIL SO HV CONTD
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CHC FOR THE AFTN.

FOR TONIGHT, WMFNT LIFTS THRU WITH OVRNGT LOWS EXPECTED TO RMN ARND
60F. DWPTS WL ONLY DROP INTO THE U50S. SKIES WL RANGE FM
PRTLY-MOCLDY DRG THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH BNDRY IN VICINITY. SLGT CHC
POPS THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT HRS THEN SLOWLY INCRSNG TWD DAWN FM THE
WEST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
SW FLOW CONTS ON TUESDAY PER 00Z NAM AND ECMWF. MODELS PLACE CWA
SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR DRG THE DAY. H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN
DRG THE AFTN AS PLAINS LOW BEGINS TO EJECT TO THE EAST. THIS WL
ALLOW WK S/WV TO IMPACT AREA DRG THE DAY, LEADING TO LKLY POPS AFT
18Z. AIRMASS WL LKLY DESTABILIZE IN WM SECTOR LEADING TO CAPES ARND
1000 J/KG BASED ON TEMPS IN THE LWR 80S AND DWPTS RISING INTO THE
MID-60S.

CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES THRU THE DAY ON WED AS WMFNT
RMNS TO OUR NORTH AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASES. DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF BNDRY, SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE LKLY AT TIMES DRG THE DAY
ACRS CNTRL NY CNTYS WHILE ONLY SCTD THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED, THUS HV
WORDED GRIDS AS LKLY SHOWERS AND CHANCE THUNDER.

MAV NUMBERS LOOK WAY TOO WARM FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
GFS/S LACK OF CLD CVR. THINKING IS THAT MET NUMBERS WILL BE CLOSER
TO REALITY AND VLY LOCALES MAY HIT 80F BUT HILLTOPS WL RMN IN THE
U70S.

HV CONTD LKLY POPS WED NGT AS CD FNT APPCHS WRN NY AND H5 LOW EJECTS
INTO GREAT LKS, FLINGING WVS AT TIMES THRU THE PD. HV MADE VRY FEW
CHGS TO PRVS GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
445 AM UPDATE...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM INHERITED FCST WITH STRONG COLD FRONT
STILL EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY DECENT COOL DOWN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF NOT AS COOL AS PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN-CMC.
THAT SAID...STILL LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS NEXT WEEKEND
WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FROST CONCERNS. UPCOMING WEEKEND STILL
LOOKING DRY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION... THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST KEEPING TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH FROPA ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LINGERING POST FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRES DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA. LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAINT HINTS THROUGH OVERLYING CIRRUS THAT LINGERING MARINE LAYER
IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME
THIS MORNING. IN FACT...SYR HAS ACTUALLY CLEARED OUT AND IS NOW
REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS. IN ANY EVENT...EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AND DAYTIME
HEATING COMMENCES. FOR NOW WE EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER AT
BGM FOR A FEW MORE HRS THROUGH ROUGHLY 14Z WITH IMPROVEMENTS
ANTICIPATED SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AT ELM AND ITH...IF IFR WERE TO
OCCUR THIS MORNING...IT WILL LIKELY ONLY BE BRIEF BEFORE THINGS
IMPROVE. BY LATE MORNING...ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR WITH WEAK
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 4-8 KTS PREVAILING REGION WIDE.

AS FOR SHWRS/STORMS...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA
MAY SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR DEVELOPING ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...BEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR SYR AND RME HOWEVER WEAK WIND FIELD ALOFT
AND NO HINT OF ANY APPROACHING UPPER SUPPORT LEADS TO A FAIR AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY AND THUS NO MENTION IN THE FCST AS OF NOW.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z AT AVP IN
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF RESTRICTIONS
AT REMAINING SITES REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST DUE TO
MODEL/S SUGGESTION OF DRIER AIR OVER CENTRAL NY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...MSE/PVN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN/PVN
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG