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000
FXUS61 KBGM 310718
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
318 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY LATER
SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
300 AM EDT UPDATE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND QUIET AND
DRY WEATHER IS PRESENT. THE UPPR LVL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TODAY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI. THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NY AND PA. HOWEVER THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE
FAR SE PORTION OF THE CWA... BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO RETURN OVER THE SE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z
TODAY.

EXPECT THE ONSET OF SHOWERS TO BE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WITH SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z. SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S... THUS EXPECT ALL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TO BE RAIN. WHEN TEMPS START TO COOL OFF AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE PRIMARILY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
235 PM THU UPDATE... THE WELL ADVERTISED DEEPENING TROUGH PATN
OVER THE ERN STATES IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS PD.

ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL MODEL TO MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...LARGE-SCALE
AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD THAT A SRN BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT...AND THEN CLOSE OFF OVER VA/NC BY SAT...ULTIMATELY
AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE...AND SPINNING UP A ROBUST SFC CYCLONE WELL OFF
THE COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NRN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL LAG
A BIT BEHIND...AND CROSS NY/PA SAT NGT/EARLY SUN.

THE SRN BRANCH TROUGH AND DEEP OCEANIC STORM STILL APPEAR TO BE
TOO FAR REMOVED TO OUR E AND S TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FCST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE NRN BRANCH TROUGH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCTD
RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FRI NGT...SAT...AND SAT NGT...AS INSTAB/FORCED LIFT ACTS
UPON THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TOO WARM
FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID PTYPE FRI NGT AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SAT
NGT/SUN MRNG...WE SHOULD TREND TWDS SNOW.

DEPENDING ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE MID-LVLS DRY OUT SAT NGT/EARLY
SUN...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FINGER LAKES SNOW
BAND DVLPMT...GIVEN A DEEP NRLY FLOW PATN...SUFFICIENT LAKE/AIR
TEMP DIFFS...AND POTENTIALLY ADEQUATE MOISTURE SUPPLY. ONCE
AGN...THE EXACT BLYR FLOW ORIENTATION AND LONGEVITY OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN THIS REGARD.

FOR NOW...WE`LL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SCTD POP`S FRI NGT-SAT NGT FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THINGS DRYING OUT BY SUN AFTN. TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S SAT...AND IN
THE 30S-LWR 40S SUN. READINGS SAT NGT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPR
20S-LWR 30S IN MOST LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS.

1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
STRATO CU IS DRIFTING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS MORNING PRIMARILY AT KITH/KBGM BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. BY MID MORNING JUST MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW VFR RANGE WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AT KSYR/KELM.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING E/SE AROUND 5 KNOTS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 310703
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
303 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY LATER
SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
300 AM EDT UPDATE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND QUIET AND
DRY WEATHER IS PRESENT. THE UPPR LVL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TODAY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI. THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NY AND PA. HOWEVER THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE
FAR SE PORTION OF THE CWA... BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO RETURN OVER THE SE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z
TODAY.

EXPECT THE ONSET OF SHOWERS TO BE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WITH SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z. SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S... THUS EXPECT ALL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TO BE RAIN. WHEN TEMPS START TO COOL OFF AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE PRIMARILY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
235 PM THU UPDATE... THE WELL ADVERTISED DEEPENING TROUGH PATN
OVER THE ERN STATES IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS PD.

ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL MODEL TO MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...LARGE-SCALE
AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD THAT A SRN BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT...AND THEN CLOSE OFF OVER VA/NC BY SAT...ULTIMATELY
AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE...AND SPINNING UP A ROBUST SFC CYCLONE WELL OFF
THE COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NRN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL LAG
A BIT BEHIND...AND CROSS NY/PA SAT NGT/EARLY SUN.

THE SRN BRANCH TROUGH AND DEEP OCEANIC STORM STILL APPEAR TO BE
TOO FAR REMOVED TO OUR E AND S TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FCST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE NRN BRANCH TROUGH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCTD
RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FRI NGT...SAT...AND SAT NGT...AS INSTAB/FORCED LIFT ACTS
UPON THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TOO WARM
FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID PTYPE FRI NGT AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SAT
NGT/SUN MRNG...WE SHOULD TREND TWDS SNOW.

DEPENDING ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE MID-LVLS DRY OUT SAT NGT/EARLY
SUN...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FINGER LAKES SNOW
BAND DVLPMT...GIVEN A DEEP NRLY FLOW PATN...SUFFICIENT LAKE/AIR
TEMP DIFFS...AND POTENTIALLY ADEQUATE MOISTURE SUPPLY. ONCE
AGN...THE EXACT BLYR FLOW ORIENTATION AND LONGEVITY OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN THIS REGARD.

FOR NOW...WE`LL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SCTD POP`S FRI NGT-SAT NGT FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THINGS DRYING OUT BY SUN AFTN. TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S SAT...AND IN
THE 30S-LWR 40S SUN. READINGS SAT NGT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPR
20S-LWR 30S IN MOST LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
STRATO CU IS DRIFTING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS MORNING PRIMARILY AT KITH/KBGM BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. BY MID MORNING JUST MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW VFR RANGE WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AT KSYR/KELM.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING E/SE AROUND 5 KNOTS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RRM









000
FXUS61 KBGM 310546
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY LATER
SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE..
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.


225 PM THU UPDATE... PLUME OF LAKE-EFFECT -SHRA CONTINUES LATE
THIS AFTN FROM ROUGHLY KSYR SEWD TOWARDS ONEONTA. WE STILL EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN...THEN ULTIMATELY DSIPT BY THIS EVE.

HOWEVER...THE THICK MASS OF SC CLDS OVER CNY/NE PA WILL VERY
LIKELY HANG IN LONGER...AS UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
TNT...AND MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. MOST MODEL RH PROFILES BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE BLYR AFTER
03-06Z...SPCLY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH WE DO LOSE
THE LAKE CONNECTION/UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT...THE INVERSION
WILL REMAIN. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT WE`LL GRADUALLY LOSE THE SC
CLDS ACRS NE PA AND PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...WITH THE NRN ZNS
KEEPING THE LWR CLDS A BIT LONGER.

TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TNT...DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE LOWS RANGING IN THE 30S (WITH LWR 30S IN THE
POCONOS/CATSKILLS WHERE CLEARING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...AND UPR
30S TO NEAR 40 IN THE LAKE PLAIN CNTYS...WHERE THICKER CLDS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR A LONGER PD OF TIME).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
235 PM THU UPDATE... THE WELL ADVERTISED DEEPENING TROUGH PATN
OVER THE ERN STATES IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS PD.

ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL MODEL TO MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...LARGE-SCALE
AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD THAT A SRN BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT...AND THEN CLOSE OFF OVER VA/NC BY SAT...ULTIMATELY
AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE...AND SPINNING UP A ROBUST SFC CYCLONE WELL OFF
THE COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NRN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL LAG
A BIT BEHIND...AND CROSS NY/PA SAT NGT/EARLY SUN.

THE SRN BRANCH TROUGH AND DEEP OCEANIC STORM STILL APPEAR TO BE
TOO FAR REMOVED TO OUR E AND S TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FCST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE NRN BRANCH TROUGH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCTD
RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FRI NGT...SAT...AND SAT NGT...AS INSTAB/FORCED LIFT ACTS
UPON THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TOO WARM
FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID PTYPE FRI NGT AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SAT
NGT/SUN MRNG...WE SHOULD TREND TWDS SNOW.

DEPENDING ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE MID-LVLS DRY OUT SAT NGT/EARLY
SUN...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FINGER LAKES SNOW
BAND DVLPMT...GIVEN A DEEP NRLY FLOW PATN...SUFFICIENT LAKE/AIR
TEMP DIFFS...AND POTENTIALLY ADEQUATE MOISTURE SUPPLY. ONCE
AGN...THE EXACT BLYR FLOW ORIENTATION AND LONGEVITY OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN THIS REGARD.

FOR NOW...WE`LL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SCTD POP`S FRI NGT-SAT NGT FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THINGS DRYING OUT BY SUN AFTN. TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S SAT...AND IN
THE 30S-LWR 40S SUN. READINGS SAT NGT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPR
20S-LWR 30S IN MOST LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
STRATO CU IS DRIFTING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS MORNING PRIMARILY AT KITH/KBGM BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. BY MID MORNING JUST MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW VFR RANGE WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AT KSYR/KELM.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING E/SE AROUND 5 KNOTS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 310249
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1049 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY LATER
SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE..
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.


225 PM THU UPDATE... PLUME OF LAKE-EFFECT -SHRA CONTINUES LATE
THIS AFTN FROM ROUGHLY KSYR SEWD TOWARDS ONEONTA. WE STILL EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN...THEN ULTIMATELY DSIPT BY THIS EVE.

HOWEVER...THE THICK MASS OF SC CLDS OVER CNY/NE PA WILL VERY
LIKELY HANG IN LONGER...AS UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
TNT...AND MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. MOST MODEL RH PROFILES BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE BLYR AFTER
03-06Z...SPCLY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH WE DO LOSE
THE LAKE CONNECTION/UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT...THE INVERSION
WILL REMAIN. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT WE`LL GRADUALLY LOSE THE SC
CLDS ACRS NE PA AND PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...WITH THE NRN ZNS
KEEPING THE LWR CLDS A BIT LONGER.

TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TNT...DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE LOWS RANGING IN THE 30S (WITH LWR 30S IN THE
POCONOS/CATSKILLS WHERE CLEARING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...AND UPR
30S TO NEAR 40 IN THE LAKE PLAIN CNTYS...WHERE THICKER CLDS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR A LONGER PD OF TIME).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
235 PM THU UPDATE... THE WELL ADVERTISED DEEPENING TROUGH PATN
OVER THE ERN STATES IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS PD.

ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL MODEL TO MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...LARGE-SCALE
AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD THAT A SRN BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT...AND THEN CLOSE OFF OVER VA/NC BY SAT...ULTIMATELY
AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE...AND SPINNING UP A ROBUST SFC CYCLONE WELL OFF
THE COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NRN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL LAG
A BIT BEHIND...AND CROSS NY/PA SAT NGT/EARLY SUN.

THE SRN BRANCH TROUGH AND DEEP OCEANIC STORM STILL APPEAR TO BE
TOO FAR REMOVED TO OUR E AND S TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FCST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE NRN BRANCH TROUGH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCTD
RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FRI NGT...SAT...AND SAT NGT...AS INSTAB/FORCED LIFT ACTS
UPON THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TOO WARM
FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID PTYPE FRI NGT AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SAT
NGT/SUN MRNG...WE SHOULD TREND TWDS SNOW.

DEPENDING ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE MID-LVLS DRY OUT SAT NGT/EARLY
SUN...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FINGER LAKES SNOW
BAND DVLPMT...GIVEN A DEEP NRLY FLOW PATN...SUFFICIENT LAKE/AIR
TEMP DIFFS...AND POTENTIALLY ADEQUATE MOISTURE SUPPLY. ONCE
AGN...THE EXACT BLYR FLOW ORIENTATION AND LONGEVITY OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN THIS REGARD.

FOR NOW...WE`LL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SCTD POP`S FRI NGT-SAT NGT FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THINGS DRYING OUT BY SUN AFTN. TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S SAT...AND IN
THE 30S-LWR 40S SUN. READINGS SAT NGT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPR
20S-LWR 30S IN MOST LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS AN SC DECK IS BREAKING UP TO SOME EXTENT AS A SMALL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO NY AND PA. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN ABV MVFR. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WONT SEE IFR AT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT. BEST CHC FOR BRIEF MVFR
WILL BE AT BGM AND ITH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. THEN FOR FRI
EXPECT MAINLY MID TO HI CLDS. SOME LOWER CLDS WILL POSSIBLY WORK
INTO KAVP LATE IN THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DJN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 302352
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
752 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY LATER
SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
225 PM THU UPDATE... PLUME OF LAKE-EFFECT -SHRA CONTINUES LATE
THIS AFTN FROM ROUGHLY KSYR SEWD TOWARDS ONEONTA. WE STILL EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN...THEN ULTIMATELY DSIPT BY THIS EVE.

HOWEVER...THE THICK MASS OF SC CLDS OVER CNY/NE PA WILL VERY
LIKELY HANG IN LONGER...AS UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
TNT...AND MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. MOST MODEL RH PROFILES BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE BLYR AFTER
03-06Z...SPCLY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH WE DO LOSE
THE LAKE CONNECTION/UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT...THE INVERSION
WILL REMAIN. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT WE`LL GRADUALLY LOSE THE SC
CLDS ACRS NE PA AND PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...WITH THE NRN ZNS
KEEPING THE LWR CLDS A BIT LONGER.

TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TNT...DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE LOWS RANGING IN THE 30S (WITH LWR 30S IN THE
POCONOS/CATSKILLS WHERE CLEARING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...AND UPR
30S TO NEAR 40 IN THE LAKE PLAIN CNTYS...WHERE THICKER CLDS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR A LONGER PD OF TIME).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
235 PM THU UPDATE... THE WELL ADVERTISED DEEPENING TROUGH PATN
OVER THE ERN STATES IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS PD.

ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL MODEL TO MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...LARGE-SCALE
AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD THAT A SRN BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT...AND THEN CLOSE OFF OVER VA/NC BY SAT...ULTIMATELY
AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE...AND SPINNING UP A ROBUST SFC CYCLONE WELL OFF
THE COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NRN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL LAG
A BIT BEHIND...AND CROSS NY/PA SAT NGT/EARLY SUN.

THE SRN BRANCH TROUGH AND DEEP OCEANIC STORM STILL APPEAR TO BE
TOO FAR REMOVED TO OUR E AND S TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FCST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE NRN BRANCH TROUGH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCTD
RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FRI NGT...SAT...AND SAT NGT...AS INSTAB/FORCED LIFT ACTS
UPON THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TOO WARM
FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID PTYPE FRI NGT AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SAT
NGT/SUN MRNG...WE SHOULD TREND TWDS SNOW.

DEPENDING ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE MID-LVLS DRY OUT SAT NGT/EARLY
SUN...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FINGER LAKES SNOW
BAND DVLPMT...GIVEN A DEEP NRLY FLOW PATN...SUFFICIENT LAKE/AIR
TEMP DIFFS...AND POTENTIALLY ADEQUATE MOISTURE SUPPLY. ONCE
AGN...THE EXACT BLYR FLOW ORIENTATION AND LONGEVITY OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN THIS REGARD.

FOR NOW...WE`LL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SCTD POP`S FRI NGT-SAT NGT FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THINGS DRYING OUT BY SUN AFTN. TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S SAT...AND IN
THE 30S-LWR 40S SUN. READINGS SAT NGT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPR
20S-LWR 30S IN MOST LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS AN SC DECK IS BREAKING UP TO SOME EXTENT AS A SMALL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO NY AND PA. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN ABV MVFR. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WONT SEE IFR AT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT. BEST CHC FOR BRIEF MVFR
WILL BE AT BGM AND ITH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. THEN FOR FRI
EXPECT MAINLY MID TO HI CLDS. SOME LOWER CLDS WILL POSSIBLY WORK
INTO KAVP LATE IN THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DJN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 301846
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
246 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY LATER
SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
225 PM THU UPDATE... PLUME OF LAKE-EFFECT -SHRA CONTINUES LATE
THIS AFTN FROM ROUGHLY KSYR SEWD TOWARDS ONEONTA. WE STILL EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN...THEN ULTIMATELY DSIPT BY THIS EVE.

HOWEVER...THE THICK MASS OF SC CLDS OVER CNY/NE PA WILL VERY
LIKELY HANG IN LONGER...AS UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
TNT...AND MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. MOST MODEL RH PROFILES BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE BLYR AFTER
03-06Z...SPCLY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH WE DO LOSE
THE LAKE CONNECTION/UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT...THE INVERSION
WILL REMAIN. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT WE`LL GRADUALLY LOSE THE SC
CLDS ACRS NE PA AND PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...WITH THE NRN ZNS
KEEPING THE LWR CLDS A BIT LONGER.

TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TNT...DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE LOWS RANGING IN THE 30S (WITH LWR 30S IN THE
POCONOS/CATSKILLS WHERE CLEARING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...AND UPR
30S TO NEAR 40 IN THE LAKE PLAIN CNTYS...WHERE THICKER CLDS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR A LONGER PD OF TIME).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
235 PM THU UPDATE... THE WELL ADVERTISED DEEPENING TROUGH PATN
OVER THE ERN STATES IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS PD.

ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL MODEL TO MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...LARGE-SCALE
AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD THAT A SRN BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT...AND THEN CLOSE OFF OVER VA/NC BY SAT...ULTIMATELY
AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE...AND SPINNING UP A ROBUST SFC CYCLONE WELL OFF
THE COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NRN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL LAG
A BIT BEHIND...AND CROSS NY/PA SAT NGT/EARLY SUN.

THE SRN BRANCH TROUGH AND DEEP OCEANIC STORM STILL APPEAR TO BE
TOO FAR REMOVED TO OUR E AND S TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FCST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE NRN BRANCH TROUGH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCTD
RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FRI NGT...SAT...AND SAT NGT...AS INSTAB/FORCED LIFT ACTS
UPON THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TOO WARM
FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID PTYPE FRI NGT AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SAT
NGT/SUN MRNG...WE SHOULD TREND TWDS SNOW.

DEPENDING ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE MID-LVLS DRY OUT SAT NGT/EARLY
SUN...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FINGER LAKES SNOW
BAND DVLPMT...GIVEN A DEEP NRLY FLOW PATN...SUFFICIENT LAKE/AIR
TEMP DIFFS...AND POTENTIALLY ADEQUATE MOISTURE SUPPLY. ONCE
AGN...THE EXACT BLYR FLOW ORIENTATION AND LONGEVITY OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN THIS REGARD.

FOR NOW...WE`LL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SCTD POP`S FRI NGT-SAT NGT FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THINGS DRYING OUT BY SUN AFTN. TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S SAT...AND IN
THE 30S-LWR 40S SUN. READINGS SAT NGT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPR
20S-LWR 30S IN MOST LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THU UPDATE... A PERSISTENT SC DECK WILL STAY WITH US THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVE...ALTHOUGH AT MOST SITES CIG BASES WILL
REMAIN IN THE VFR CAT. THE TWO EXCEPTIONS ARE KBGM/KITH...WHERE OCNL MVFR
CIGS CAN STILL BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 21-00Z.

THE LWR CLOUD DECK SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLOWLY SCT OUT LTR
TNT AND EARLY FRI...WITH MID AND HIGH-LVL CLDNS COMING IN OVER THE
TOP. THE UPSHOT HERE IS THAT VFR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED.

NW SFC WINDS 8-12 KT THIS AFTN...WILL BECOME LGT OVERNIGHT...THEN
PICK UP A BIT OUT OF THE SE ON FRI AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-MON...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 301841
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
241 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY LATER
SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
225 PM THU UPDATE... PLUME OF LAKE-EFFECT -SHRA CONTINUES LATE
THIS AFTN FROM ROUGHLY KSYR SEWD TOWARDS ONEONTA. WE STILL EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN...THEN ULTIMATELY DSIPT BY THIS EVE.

HOWEVER...THE THICK MASS OF SC CLDS OVER CNY/NE PA WILL VERY
LIKELY HANG IN LONGER...AS UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
TNT...AND MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. MOST MODEL RH PROFILES BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE BLYR AFTER
03-06Z...SPCLY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH WE DO LOSE
THE LAKE CONNECTION/UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT...THE INVERSION
WILL REMAIN. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT WE`LL GRADUALLY LOSE THE SC
CLDS ACRS NE PA AND PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...WITH THE NRN ZNS
KEEPING THE LWR CLDS A BIT LONGER.

TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TNT...DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE LOWS RANGING IN THE 30S (WITH LWR 30S IN THE
POCONOS/CATSKILLS WHERE CLEARING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...AND UPR
30S TO NEAR 40 IN THE LAKE PLAIN CNTYS...WHERE THICKER CLDS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR A LONGER PD OF TIME).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
235 PM THU UPDATE... THE WELL ADVERTISED DEEPENING TROUGH PATN
OVER THE ERN STATES IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS PD.

ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL MODEL TO MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...LARGE-SCALE
AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD THAT A SRN BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT...AND THEN CLOSE OFF OVER VA/NC BY SAT...ULTIMATELY
AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE...AND SPINNING UP A ROBUST SFC CYCLONE WELL OFF
THE COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NRN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL LAG
A BIT BEHIND...AND CROSS NY/PA SAT NGT/EARLY SUN.

THE SRN BRANCH TROUGH AND DEEP OCEANIC STORM STILL APPEAR TO BE
TOO FAR REMOVED TO OUR E AND S TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FCST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE NRN BRANCH TROUGH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCTD
RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FRI NGT...SAT...AND SAT NGT...AS INSTAB/FORCED LIFT ACTS
UPON THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TOO WARM
FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID PTYPE FRI NGT AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SAT
NGT/SUN MRNG...WE SHOULD TREND TWDS SNOW.

DEPENDING ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE MID-LVLS DRY OUT SAT NGT/EARLY
SUN...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FINGER LAKES SNOW
BAND DVLPMT...GIVEN A DEEP NRLY FLOW PATN...SUFFICIENT LAKE/AIR
TEMP DIFFS...AND POTENTIALLY ADEQUATE MOISTURE SUPPLY. ONCE
AGN...THE EXACT BLYR FLOW ORIENTATION AND LONGEVITY OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN THIS REGARD.

FOR NOW...WE`LL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SCTD POP`S FRI NGT-SAT NGT FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THINGS DRYING OUT BY SUN AFTN. TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S SAT...AND IN
THE 30S-LWR 40S SUN. READINGS SAT NGT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPR
20S-LWR 30S IN MOST LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THU UPDATE... A PERSISTENT SC DECK WILL STAY WITH US THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVE...ALTHOUGH AT MOST SITES CIG BASES WILL
REMAIN IN THE VFR CAT. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS KBGM...WHERE OCNL MVFR
CIGS CAN STILL BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH ABT 21Z.

THE LWR CLOUD DECK SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLOWLY SCT OUT LTR
TNT AND EARLY FRI...WITH MID AND HIGH-LVL CLDNS COMING IN OVER THE
TOP. THE UPSHOT HERE IS THAT VFR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED.

NW SFC WINDS 8-12 KT THIS AFTN...WILL BECOME LGT OVERNIGHT...THEN
PICK UP A BIT OUT OF THE SE ON FRI AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-MON...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 301720
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
120 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END LATE THIS MORNING AND DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR AREA STARTING
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR TWO MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL
DATA.

VSBL SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY SOLID MASS OF SC CLDS OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA LATE THIS MRNG. LAKE-EFFECT PROCESSES (15-16C LAKE/850 MB
DIFFERENTIAL)...LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE...AND AN UPSLOPE NWLY
FLOW REGIME WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO KEEPING THESE CLDS IN PLACE
THIS AFTN...AND LIKELY RIGHT INTO THIS EVE AS WELL. GIVEN THAT A
MID-LVL S/WV IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING CNY/NE PA ATTM...WE
SHOULD GET INTO SOME SINKING MOTION ALOFT THIS AFTN BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW BRIEF BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
ACRS THE TWIN TIERS. BUT AGAIN...IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT
CLDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND.

ISOLD -SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO DOT AREAS SE OF LK ONT INTO EARLY
AFTN...BUT IN GENERAL...THESE SHWRS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE WITH TIME.

OUR EXISTING HIGH TEMP FCST (MID 40S-LWR 50S) LOOKS GOOD...BASED
ON RGNL 12Z SNDGS...AND EXPECTED SLGT LOW-LVL CAA INTO THIS AFTN.

PREV DISC... 230 AM EDT UPDATE... SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY
THIS MORNING AS COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION. 700MB TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE
AROUND AROUND NEGATIVE 7 OR BELOW. THE DECREASE IN THE TEMPS ALOFT
HAVE ALLOWED THE INVERSION TO BECOME STRONGER. THE STRENGTHENED
INVERSION RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER ONONDAGA... ONEIDA... AND MADISON
COUNTY THIS MORNING. THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE LAKE CURRENTLY IS
AROUND 280-290 DEGREES. THE MEAN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 280-290
DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z THIS MORNING. AFTER 10Z THE MEAN FLOW
WILL START TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF 300 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN TRANSITION OF THE SINGLE BAND TO BECOME SCATTERED LIKE IN
NATURE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

DUE TO CAA EARLY THIS MORNING... TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL AND REACH THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNRISE. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING.

BY 15Z THIS MORNING THE DEPTH UNDER THE INVERSION REALLY STARTS TO
DECREASE... THUS IF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE AFTER 15Z OVER CENTRAL
NY... EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE VERY LIGHT IF NOT SPRINKLES. BY 18Z THE
INVERSION WILL DISSIPATE AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END.

THE REST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WE LACK ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND BC WE HAVE WEAK FORCING ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IF NOT OVERCAST.
BY 00Z EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO LAST LONG AS A STRONG UPPR LVL LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE... THUS MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL RETURN BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGHLY TALKED ABOUT AND WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER
LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER MI AND THE SFC LOW WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF OHIO. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
TRANSFER FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH IMPACTING A COASTAL SYSTEM. THIS
COASTAL SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR CWA.
EXPECT THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT WE MISS
THE BRUNT OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. HOWEVER... THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE
WILL HAVE QUIET WEATHER.

THE SFC LOW THAT IS LOCATED NORTH OF OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME WASHED OUT OVER THE REGION.
THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. EVEN
THOUGH WE MISS THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM WILL WILL STILL BE
IMPACTED DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL START IN THE FAR WEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY AND
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW BECOMES LESS AND LESS WITH EACH ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE RUN AS TEMPS JUST SEEM TO BE TO WARM. BY THE TIME THE
AIRMASS BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW GROWTH THE CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL END.

TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S. THE COLDER AIRMASS DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION
TILL SUNDAY. CAN NOT 100% RULE OUT A MIX OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS SAT NIGHT... BUT CHANCES FOR THAT LOOKS SLIM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z THU UPDATE... A PERSISTENT SC DECK WILL STAY WITH US THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVE...ALTHOUGH AT MOST SITES CIG BASES WILL
REMAIN IN THE VFR CAT. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS KBGM...WHERE OCNL MVFR
CIGS CAN STILL BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH ABT 21Z.

THE LWR CLOUD DECK SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLOWLY SCT OUT LTR
TNT AND EARLY FRI...WITH MID AND HIGH-LVL CLDNS COMING IN OVER THE
TOP. THE UPSHOT HERE IS THAT VFR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED.

NW SFC WINDS 8-12 KT THIS AFTN...WILL BECOME LGT OVERNIGHT...THEN
PICK UP A BIT OUT OF THE SE ON FRI AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-MON...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 301651
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1251 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END LATE THIS MORNING AND DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR AREA STARTING
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR TWO MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL
DATA.

VSBL SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY SOLID MASS OF SC CLDS OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA LATE THIS MRNG. LAKE-EFFECT PROCESSES (15-16C LAKE/850 MB
DIFFERENTIAL)...LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE...AND AN UPSLOPE NWLY
FLOW REGIME WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO KEEPING THESE CLDS IN PLACE
THIS AFTN...AND LIKELY RIGHT INTO THIS EVE AS WELL. GIVEN THAT A
MID-LVL S/WV IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING CNY/NE PA ATTM...WE
SHOULD GET INTO SOME SINKING MOTION ALOFT THIS AFTN BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW BRIEF BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
ACRS THE TWIN TIERS. BUT AGAIN...IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT
CLDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND.

ISOLD -SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO DOT AREAS SE OF LK ONT INTO EARLY
AFTN...BUT IN GENERAL...THESE SHWRS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE WITH TIME.

OUR EXISTING HIGH TEMP FCST (MID 40S-LWR 50S) LOOKS GOOD...BASED
ON RGNL 12Z SNDGS...AND EXPECTED SLGT LOW-LVL CAA INTO THIS AFTN.

PREV DISC... 230 AM EDT UPDATE... SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY
THIS MORNING AS COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION. 700MB TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE
AROUND AROUND NEGATIVE 7 OR BELOW. THE DECREASE IN THE TEMPS ALOFT
HAVE ALLOWED THE INVERSION TO BECOME STRONGER. THE STRENGTHENED
INVERSION RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER ONONDAGA... ONEIDA... AND MADISON
COUNTY THIS MORNING. THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE LAKE CURRENTLY IS
AROUND 280-290 DEGREES. THE MEAN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 280-290
DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z THIS MORNING. AFTER 10Z THE MEAN FLOW
WILL START TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF 300 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN TRANSITION OF THE SINGLE BAND TO BECOME SCATTERED LIKE IN
NATURE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

DUE TO CAA EARLY THIS MORNING... TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL AND REACH THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNRISE. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING.

BY 15Z THIS MORNING THE DEPTH UNDER THE INVERSION REALLY STARTS TO
DECREASE... THUS IF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE AFTER 15Z OVER CENTRAL
NY... EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE VERY LIGHT IF NOT SPRINKLES. BY 18Z THE
INVERSION WILL DISSIPATE AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END.

THE REST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WE LACK ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND BC WE HAVE WEAK FORCING ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IF NOT OVERCAST.
BY 00Z EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO LAST LONG AS A STRONG UPPR LVL LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE... THUS MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL RETURN BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGHLY TALKED ABOUT AND WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER
LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER MI AND THE SFC LOW WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF OHIO. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
TRANSFER FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH IMPACTING A COASTAL SYSTEM. THIS
COASTAL SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR CWA.
EXPECT THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT WE MISS
THE BRUNT OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. HOWEVER... THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE
WILL HAVE QUIET WEATHER.

THE SFC LOW THAT IS LOCATED NORTH OF OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME WASHED OUT OVER THE REGION.
THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. EVEN
THOUGH WE MISS THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM WILL WILL STILL BE
IMPACTED DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL START IN THE FAR WEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY AND
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW BECOMES LESS AND LESS WITH EACH ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE RUN AS TEMPS JUST SEEM TO BE TO WARM. BY THE TIME THE
AIRMASS BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW GROWTH THE CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL END.

TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S. THE COLDER AIRMASS DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION
TILL SUNDAY. CAN NOT 100% RULE OUT A MIX OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS SAT NIGHT... BUT CHANCES FOR THAT LOOKS SLIM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE NYS TERMINALS. AT KELM/KAVP, CIGS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 4K FT. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALSO OCCUR AT KRME/KSYR. BY EARLY AFTERNOON CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
LOW VFR EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS KITH/KBGM WHERE MVFR MAY
STILL PERSIST. OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW WILL ALLOW CIGS TO REMAIN
VFR.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AM...VFR.

FRI PM THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 301651
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1251 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END LATE THIS MORNING AND DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR AREA STARTING
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR TWO MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL
DATA.

VSBL SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY SOLID MASS OF SC CLDS OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA LATE THIS MRNG. LAKE-EFFECT PROCESSES (15-16C LAKE/850 MB
DIFFERENTIAL)...LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE...AND AN UPSLOPE NWLY
FLOW REGIME WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO KEEPING THESE CLDS IN PLACE
THIS AFTN...AND LIKELY RIGHT INTO THIS EVE AS WELL. GIVEN THAT A
MID-LVL S/WV IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING CNY/NE PA ATTM...WE
SHOULD GET INTO SOME SINKING MOTION ALOFT THIS AFTN BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW BRIEF BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
ACRS THE TWIN TIERS. BUT AGAIN...IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT
CLDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND.

ISOLD -SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO DOT AREAS SE OF LK ONT INTO EARLY
AFTN...BUT IN GENERAL...THESE SHWRS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE WITH TIME.

OUR EXISTING HIGH TEMP FCST (MID 40S-LWR 50S) LOOKS GOOD...BASED
ON RGNL 12Z SNDGS...AND EXPECTED SLGT LOW-LVL CAA INTO THIS AFTN.

PREV DISC... 230 AM EDT UPDATE... SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY
THIS MORNING AS COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION. 700MB TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE
AROUND AROUND NEGATIVE 7 OR BELOW. THE DECREASE IN THE TEMPS ALOFT
HAVE ALLOWED THE INVERSION TO BECOME STRONGER. THE STRENGTHENED
INVERSION RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER ONONDAGA... ONEIDA... AND MADISON
COUNTY THIS MORNING. THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE LAKE CURRENTLY IS
AROUND 280-290 DEGREES. THE MEAN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 280-290
DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z THIS MORNING. AFTER 10Z THE MEAN FLOW
WILL START TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF 300 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN TRANSITION OF THE SINGLE BAND TO BECOME SCATTERED LIKE IN
NATURE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

DUE TO CAA EARLY THIS MORNING... TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL AND REACH THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNRISE. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING.

BY 15Z THIS MORNING THE DEPTH UNDER THE INVERSION REALLY STARTS TO
DECREASE... THUS IF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE AFTER 15Z OVER CENTRAL
NY... EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE VERY LIGHT IF NOT SPRINKLES. BY 18Z THE
INVERSION WILL DISSIPATE AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END.

THE REST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WE LACK ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND BC WE HAVE WEAK FORCING ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IF NOT OVERCAST.
BY 00Z EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO LAST LONG AS A STRONG UPPR LVL LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE... THUS MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL RETURN BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGHLY TALKED ABOUT AND WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER
LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER MI AND THE SFC LOW WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF OHIO. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
TRANSFER FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH IMPACTING A COASTAL SYSTEM. THIS
COASTAL SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR CWA.
EXPECT THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT WE MISS
THE BRUNT OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. HOWEVER... THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE
WILL HAVE QUIET WEATHER.

THE SFC LOW THAT IS LOCATED NORTH OF OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME WASHED OUT OVER THE REGION.
THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. EVEN
THOUGH WE MISS THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM WILL WILL STILL BE
IMPACTED DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL START IN THE FAR WEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY AND
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW BECOMES LESS AND LESS WITH EACH ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE RUN AS TEMPS JUST SEEM TO BE TO WARM. BY THE TIME THE
AIRMASS BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW GROWTH THE CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL END.

TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S. THE COLDER AIRMASS DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION
TILL SUNDAY. CAN NOT 100% RULE OUT A MIX OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS SAT NIGHT... BUT CHANCES FOR THAT LOOKS SLIM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE NYS TERMINALS. AT KELM/KAVP, CIGS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 4K FT. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALSO OCCUR AT KRME/KSYR. BY EARLY AFTERNOON CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
LOW VFR EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS KITH/KBGM WHERE MVFR MAY
STILL PERSIST. OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW WILL ALLOW CIGS TO REMAIN
VFR.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AM...VFR.

FRI PM THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 301426
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1026 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END LATE THIS MORNING AND DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR AREA STARTING
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR TWO MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL
DATA.

VSBL SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY SOLID MASS OF SC CLDS OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA LATE THIS MRNG. LAKE-EFFECT PROCESSES (15-16C LAKE/850 MB
DIFFERENTIAL)...LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE...AND AN UPSLOPE NWLY
FLOW REGIME WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO KEEPING THESE CLDS IN PLACE
THIS AFTN...AND LIKELY RIGHT INTO THIS EVE AS WELL. GIVEN THAT A
MID-LVL S/WV IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING CNY/NE PA ATTM...WE
SHOULD GET INTO SOME SINKING MOTION ALOFT THIS AFTN BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW BRIEF BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
ACRS THE TWIN TIERS. BUT AGAIN...IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT
CLDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND.

ISOLD -SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO DOT AREAS SE OF LK ONT INTO EARLY
AFTN...BUT IN GENERAL...THESE SHWRS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE WITH TIME.

OUR EXISTING HIGH TEMP FCST (MID 40S-LWR 50S) LOOKS GOOD...BASED
ON RGNL 12Z SNDGS...AND EXPECTED SLGT LOW-LVL CAA INTO THIS AFTN.

PREV DISC... 230 AM EDT UPDATE... SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY
THIS MORNING AS COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION. 700MB TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE
AROUND AROUND NEGATIVE 7 OR BELOW. THE DECREASE IN THE TEMPS ALOFT
HAVE ALLOWED THE INVERSION TO BECOME STRONGER. THE STRENGTHENED
INVERSION RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER ONONDAGA... ONEIDA... AND MADISON
COUNTY THIS MORNING. THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE LAKE CURRENTLY IS
AROUND 280-290 DEGREES. THE MEAN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 280-290
DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z THIS MORNING. AFTER 10Z THE MEAN FLOW
WILL START TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF 300 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN TRANSITION OF THE SINGLE BAND TO BECOME SCATTERED LIKE IN
NATURE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

DUE TO CAA EARLY THIS MORNING... TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL AND REACH THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNRISE. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING.

BY 15Z THIS MORNING THE DEPTH UNDER THE INVERSION REALLY STARTS TO
DECREASE... THUS IF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE AFTER 15Z OVER CENTRAL
NY... EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE VERY LIGHT IF NOT SPRINKLES. BY 18Z THE
INVERSION WILL DISSIPATE AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END.

THE REST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WE LACK ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND BC WE HAVE WEAK FORCING ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IF NOT OVERCAST.
BY 00Z EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO LAST LONG AS A STRONG UPPR LVL LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE... THUS MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL RETURN BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGHLY TALKED ABOUT AND WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER
LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER MI AND THE SFC LOW WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF OHIO. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
TRANSFER FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH IMPACTING A COASTAL SYSTEM. THIS
COASTAL SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR CWA.
EXPECT THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT WE MISS
THE BRUNT OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. HOWEVER... THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE
WILL HAVE QUIET WEATHER.

THE SFC LOW THAT IS LOCATED NORTH OF OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME WASHED OUT OVER THE REGION.
THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. EVEN
THOUGH WE MISS THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM WILL WILL STILL BE
IMPACTED DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL START IN THE FAR WEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY AND
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW BECOMES LESS AND LESS WITH EACH ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE RUN AS TEMPS JUST SEEM TO BE TO WARM. BY THE TIME THE
AIRMASS BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW GROWTH THE CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL END.

TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S. THE COLDER AIRMASS DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION
TILL SUNDAY. CAN NOT 100% RULE OUT A MIX OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS SAT NIGHT... BUT CHANCES FOR THAT LOOKS SLIM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY, DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION AS
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE A
COOL/DRY DAY BUT WINDY WITH MAXES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MODERATING TREND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION PROVIDES A SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAXES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT WILL CARRY CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE NYS TERMINALS. AT KELM/KAVP, CIGS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 4K FT. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALSO OCCUR AT KRME/KSYR. BY EARLY AFTERNOON CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
LOW VFR EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS KITH/KBGM WHERE MVFR MAY
STILL PERSIST. OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW WILL ALLOW CIGS TO REMAIN
VFR.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AM...VFR.

FRI PM THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 301052
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END LATE THIS MORNING AND DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR AREA STARTING
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR TWO MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 AM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING AS COOLER AIR
ALOFT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION. 700MB TEMPS OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE AROUND AROUND NEGATIVE 7 OR
BELOW. THE DECREASE IN THE TEMPS ALOFT HAVE ALLOWED THE INVERSION
TO BECOME STRONGER. THE STRENGTHENED INVERSION RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT INDUCED RAIN
SHOWERS OVER ONONDAGA... ONEIDA... AND MADISON COUNTY THIS
MORNING. THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE LAKE CURRENTLY IS AROUND 280-290
DEGREES. THE MEAN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 280-290 DEGREES THROUGH AT
LEAST 10Z THIS MORNING. AFTER 10Z THE MEAN FLOW WILL START TO
TRANSITION TO MORE OF 300 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT IN TRANSITION
OF THE SINGLE BAND TO BECOME SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

DUE TO CAA EARLY THIS MORNING... TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL AND REACH THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNRISE. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING.

BY 15Z THIS MORNING THE DEPTH UNDER THE INVERSION REALLY STARTS TO
DECREASE... THUS IF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE AFTER 15Z OVER CENTRAL
NY... EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE VERY LIGHT IF NOT SPRINKLES. BY 18Z THE
INVERSION WILL DISSIPATE AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END.

THE REST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WE LACK ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND BC WE HAVE WEAK FORCING ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IF NOT OVERCAST.
BY 00Z EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO LAST LONG AS A STRONG UPPR LVL LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE... THUS MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL RETURN BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGHLY TALKED ABOUT AND WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER
LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER MI AND THE SFC LOW WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF OHIO. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
TRANSFER FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH IMPACTING A COASTAL SYSTEM. THIS
COASTAL SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR CWA.
EXPECT THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT WE MISS
THE BRUNT OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. HOWEVER... THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE
WILL HAVE QUIET WEATHER.

THE SFC LOW THAT IS LOCATED NORTH OF OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME WASHED OUT OVER THE REGION.
THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. EVEN
THOUGH WE MISS THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM WILL WILL STILL BE
IMPACTED DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL START IN THE FAR WEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY AND
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW BECOMES LESS AND LESS WITH EACH ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE RUN AS TEMPS JUST SEEM TO BE TO WARM. BY THE TIME THE
AIRMASS BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW GROWTH THE CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL END.

TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S. THE COLDER AIRMASS DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION
TILL SUNDAY. CAN NOT 100% RULE OUT A MIX OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS SAT NIGHT... BUT CHANCES FOR THAT LOOKS SLIM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY, DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION AS
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE A
COOL/DRY DAY BUT WINDY WITH MAXES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MODERATING TREND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION PROVIDES A SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAXES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT WILL CARRY CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE NYS TERMINALS. AT KELM/KAVP, CIGS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 4K FT. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALSO OCCUR AT KRME/KSYR. BY EARLY AFTERNOON CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
LOW VFR EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS KITH/KBGM WHERE MVFR MAY
STILL PERSIST. OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW WILL ALLOW CIGS TO REMAIN
VFR.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AM...VFR.

FRI PM THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 301052
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END LATE THIS MORNING AND DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR AREA STARTING
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR TWO MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 AM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING AS COOLER AIR
ALOFT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION. 700MB TEMPS OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE AROUND AROUND NEGATIVE 7 OR
BELOW. THE DECREASE IN THE TEMPS ALOFT HAVE ALLOWED THE INVERSION
TO BECOME STRONGER. THE STRENGTHENED INVERSION RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT INDUCED RAIN
SHOWERS OVER ONONDAGA... ONEIDA... AND MADISON COUNTY THIS
MORNING. THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE LAKE CURRENTLY IS AROUND 280-290
DEGREES. THE MEAN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 280-290 DEGREES THROUGH AT
LEAST 10Z THIS MORNING. AFTER 10Z THE MEAN FLOW WILL START TO
TRANSITION TO MORE OF 300 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT IN TRANSITION
OF THE SINGLE BAND TO BECOME SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

DUE TO CAA EARLY THIS MORNING... TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL AND REACH THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNRISE. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING.

BY 15Z THIS MORNING THE DEPTH UNDER THE INVERSION REALLY STARTS TO
DECREASE... THUS IF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE AFTER 15Z OVER CENTRAL
NY... EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE VERY LIGHT IF NOT SPRINKLES. BY 18Z THE
INVERSION WILL DISSIPATE AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END.

THE REST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WE LACK ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND BC WE HAVE WEAK FORCING ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IF NOT OVERCAST.
BY 00Z EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO LAST LONG AS A STRONG UPPR LVL LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE... THUS MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL RETURN BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGHLY TALKED ABOUT AND WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER
LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER MI AND THE SFC LOW WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF OHIO. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
TRANSFER FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH IMPACTING A COASTAL SYSTEM. THIS
COASTAL SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR CWA.
EXPECT THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT WE MISS
THE BRUNT OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. HOWEVER... THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE
WILL HAVE QUIET WEATHER.

THE SFC LOW THAT IS LOCATED NORTH OF OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME WASHED OUT OVER THE REGION.
THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. EVEN
THOUGH WE MISS THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM WILL WILL STILL BE
IMPACTED DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL START IN THE FAR WEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY AND
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW BECOMES LESS AND LESS WITH EACH ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE RUN AS TEMPS JUST SEEM TO BE TO WARM. BY THE TIME THE
AIRMASS BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW GROWTH THE CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL END.

TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S. THE COLDER AIRMASS DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION
TILL SUNDAY. CAN NOT 100% RULE OUT A MIX OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS SAT NIGHT... BUT CHANCES FOR THAT LOOKS SLIM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY, DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION AS
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE A
COOL/DRY DAY BUT WINDY WITH MAXES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MODERATING TREND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION PROVIDES A SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAXES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT WILL CARRY CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE NYS TERMINALS. AT KELM/KAVP, CIGS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 4K FT. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALSO OCCUR AT KRME/KSYR. BY EARLY AFTERNOON CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
LOW VFR EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS KITH/KBGM WHERE MVFR MAY
STILL PERSIST. OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW WILL ALLOW CIGS TO REMAIN
VFR.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AM...VFR.

FRI PM THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 300734
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
334 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END LATE THIS MORNING AND DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR AREA STARTING
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR TWO MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 AM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING AS COOLER AIR
ALOFT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION. 700MB TEMPS OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE AROUND AROUND NEGATIVE 7 OR
BELOW. THE DECREASE IN THE TEMPS ALOFT HAVE ALLOWED THE INVERSION
TO BECOME STRONGER. THE STRENGTHENED INVERSION RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT INDUCED RAIN
SHOWERS OVER ONONDAGA... ONEIDA... AND MADISON COUNTY THIS
MORNING. THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE LAKE CURRENTLY IS AROUND 280-290
DEGREES. THE MEAN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 280-290 DEGREES THROUGH AT
LEAST 10Z THIS MORNING. AFTER 10Z THE MEAN FLOW WILL START TO
TRANSITION TO MORE OF 300 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT IN TRANSITION
OF THE SINGLE BAND TO BECOME SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

DUE TO CAA EARLY THIS MORNING... TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL AND REACH THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNRISE. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING.

BY 15Z THIS MORNING THE DEPTH UNDER THE INVERSION REALLY STARTS TO
DECREASE... THUS IF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE AFTER 15Z OVER CENTRAL
NY... EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE VERY LIGHT IF NOT SPRINKLES. BY 18Z THE
INVERSION WILL DISSIPATE AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END.

THE REST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WE LACK ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND BC WE HAVE WEAK FORCING ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IF NOT OVERCAST.
BY 00Z EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO LAST LONG AS A STRONG UPPR LVL LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE... THUS MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL RETURN BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGHLY TALKED ABOUT AND WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER
LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER MI AND THE SFC LOW WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF OHIO. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
TRANSFER FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH IMPACTING A COASTAL SYSTEM. THIS
COASTAL SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR CWA.
EXPECT THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT WE MISS
THE BRUNT OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. HOWEVER... THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE
WILL HAVE QUIET WEATHER.

THE SFC LOW THAT IS LOCATED NORTH OF OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME WASHED OUT OVER THE REGION.
THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. EVEN
THOUGH WE MISS THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM WILL WILL STILL BE
IMPACTED DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL START IN THE FAR WEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY AND
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW BECOMES LESS AND LESS WITH EACH ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE RUN AS TEMPS JUST SEEM TO BE TO WARM. BY THE TIME THE
AIRMASS BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW GROWTH THE CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL END.

TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S. THE COLDER AIRMASS DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION
TILL SUNDAY. CAN NOT 100% RULE OUT A MIX OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS SAT NIGHT... BUT CHANCES FOR THAT LOOKS SLIM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY, DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION AS
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE A
COOL/DRY DAY BUT WINDY WITH MAXES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MODERATING TREND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION PROVIDES A SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAXES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT WILL CARRY CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC TROF WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
USHERING IN A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. CIGS WILL
LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY 09Z AT THE NYS TERMINALS WITH LOW
MVFR CIGS AND UNRESTRICTED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KRME/KSYR
BETWEEN 09Z-14Z. AT KITH/KBGM, LOW MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR BY 09Z AND
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO LOW VFR AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT KAVP,
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN
12-18Z.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AM...VFR.

FRI PM THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM









000
FXUS61 KBGM 300711
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
311 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL WIND FLOWING OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY, BRINGING PLENTY
OF RAIN SHOWERS, AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 AM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING AS COOLER AIR
ALOFT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION. 700MB TEMPS OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE AROUND AROUND NEGATIVE 7 OR
BELOW. THE DECREASE IN THE TEMPS ALOFT HAVE ALLOWED THE INVERSION
TO BECOME STRONGER. THE STRENGTHENED INVERSION RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT INDUCED RAIN
SHOWERS OVER ONONDAGA... ONEIDA... AND MADISON COUNTY THIS
MORNING. THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE LAKE CURRENTLY IS AROUND 280-290
DEGREES. THE MEAN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 280-290 DEGREES THROUGH AT
LEAST 10Z THIS MORNING. AFTER 10Z THE MEAN FLOW WILL START TO
TRANSITION TO MORE OF 300 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT IN TRANSITION
OF THE SINGLE BAND TO BECOME SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

DUE TO CAA EARLY THIS MORNING... TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL AND REACH THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNRISE. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING.

BY 15Z THIS MORNING THE DEPTH UNDER THE INVERSION REALLY STARTS TO
DECREASE... THUS IF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE AFTER 15Z OVER CENTRAL
NY... EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE VERY LIGHT IF NOT SPRINKLES. BY 18Z THE
INVERSION WILL DISSIPATE AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END.

THE REST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WE LACK ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND BC WE HAVE WEAK FORCING ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IF NOT OVERCAST.
BY 00Z EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO LAST LONG AS A STRONG UPPR LVL LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE... THUS MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL RETURN BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A BRIEF RIDGE WILL BRING A QUIET, COOL NIGHT TO NY AND PA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY, A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DIP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN ROTATE INTO THE DEEP
SERN U.S. BY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE WAVE, A DIFFUSE LOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED.
AS THE SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO CATCH UP TO THE COASTAL CYCLONE ON
SATURDAY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE PLACE.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL FIRST ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIP AS THE ENERGY TRANSFER TAKES PLACE. AT THIS POINT WE FEEL
SAFE IN FORECASTING HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT.

SFC TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATION COME INTO PLAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY, AS SNOW IS A REAL POSSIBILITY. GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG UPLIFT OVER THE AREA, DYNAMIC COOLING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A LARGE FACTOR. FOCUSING ON TEMP AND ELEVATION YIELDS AN AREA
OF RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY EAST AND FAR WEST. MINOR ACCUMS ARE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY, DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION AS
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE A
COOL/DRY DAY BUT WINDY WITH MAXES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MODERATING TREND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION PROVIDES A SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAXES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT WILL CARRY CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC TROF WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
USHERING IN A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. CIGS WILL
LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY 09Z AT THE NYS TERMINALS WITH LOW
MVFR CIGS AND UNRESTRICTED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KRME/KSYR
BETWEEN 09Z-14Z. AT KITH/KBGM, LOW MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR BY 09Z AND
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO LOW VFR AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT KAVP,
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN
12-18Z.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AM...VFR.

FRI PM THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 300634
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
234 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL WIND FLOWING OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY, BRINGING PLENTY
OF RAIN SHOWERS, AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 AM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING AS COOLER AIR
ALOFT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION. 700MB TEMPS OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE AROUND AROUND NEGATIVE 7 OR
BELOW. THE DECREASE IN THE TEMPS ALOFT HAVE ALLOWED THE INVERSION
TO BECOME STRONGER. THE STRENGTHENED INVERSION RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT INDUCED RAIN
SHOWERS OVER ONONDAGA... ONEIDA... AND MADISON COUNTY THIS
MORNING. THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE LAKE CURRENTLY IS AROUND 280-290
DEGREES. THE MEAN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 280-290 DEGREES THROUGH AT
LEAST 10Z THIS MORNING. AFTER 10Z THE MEAN FLOW WILL START TO
TRANSITION TO MORE OF 300 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT IN TRANSITION
OF THE SINGLE BAND TO BECOME SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

DUE TO CAA EARLY THIS MORNING... TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL AND REACH THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNRISE. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING.

BY 15Z THIS MORNING THE DEPTH UNDER THE INVERSION REALLY STARTS TO
DECREASE... THUS IF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE AFTER 15Z OVER CENTRAL
NY... EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE VERY LIGHT IF NOT SPRINKLES. BY 18Z THE
INVERSION WILL DISSIPATE AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END.

THE REST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WE LACK ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND BC WE HAVE WEAK FORCING ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IF NOT OVERCAST.
BY 00Z EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO LAST LONG AS A STRONG UPPR LVL LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE... THUS MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL RETURN BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF RIDGE WILL BRING A QUIET, COOL NIGHT TO NY AND PA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY, A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DIP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN ROTATE INTO THE DEEP
SERN U.S. BY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE WAVE, A DIFFUSE LOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED.
AS THE SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO CATCH UP TO THE COASTAL CYCLONE ON
SATURDAY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE PLACE.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL FIRST ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIP AS THE ENERGY TRANSFER TAKES PLACE. AT THIS POINT WE FEEL
SAFE IN FORECASTING HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT.

SFC TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATION COME INTO PLAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY, AS SNOW IS A REAL POSSIBILITY. GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG UPLIFT OVER THE AREA, DYNAMIC COOLING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A LARGE FACTOR. FOCUSING ON TEMP AND ELEVATION YIELDS AN AREA
OF RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY EAST AND FAR WEST. MINOR ACCUMS ARE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM WED UPDATE... REGARDING THE DEEP UPR-LVL WAVE PROGGED TO
AFFECT THE ERN STATES THIS WEEKEND...THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO DIG THIS SYSTEM FARTHER S AND E INTO VA/NC...BEFORE IT
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH...AND THEN PROCEEDS OUT TO SEA.
AS SUCH...ITS MAIN IMPACTS ON CNY/NE PA SHOULD BE TO PRODUCE SCTD
INSTAB DRIVEN -SHRA/-SHSN FRI NGT AND SAT...WITH PERHAPS SOME
SHORT-LIVED MULTI-BAND SHSN SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUN. FOR THE TIME
BEING...WE`VE RETAINED CHC POPS (30-50%) TO COVER THIS SCENARIO
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PD. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX LTR FRI
NGT AND SAT...WITH JUST SNOW SHWRS ANTICIPATED SAT NGT AND SUN
MRNG.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NE...A DRYING/MODERATING TREND
IS FORESEEN FROM SUN AFTN THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.

-SHRA COULD ARRIVE BY LTR TUE AFTN OR TUE NGT...AS THE NEXT NRN
STREAM S/WV AND SFC FRNTL COMPLEX APPROACH FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC TROF WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
USHERING IN A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. CIGS WILL
LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY 09Z AT THE NYS TERMINALS WITH LOW
MVFR CIGS AND UNRESTRICTED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KRME/KSYR
BETWEEN 09Z-14Z. AT KITH/KBGM, LOW MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR BY 09Z AND
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO LOW VFR AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT KAVP,
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN
12-18Z.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AM...VFR.

FRI PM THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM









000
FXUS61 KBGM 300548
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL WIND FLOWING OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY, BRINGING PLENTY
OF RAIN SHOWERS, AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER THE FINGER LAKES AS
THE LAKE ERIE BAND HAS MADE IT INTO PENN YAN AS OF LAST REPORT.
THIS AREA OF RAIN WON`T LAST LONG HOWEVER AS WIND ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO VEER MORE INTO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. AS THIS
HAPPENS THE FETCH OFF ERIE WILL DIMINISH THE PREVIOUS EARLIER
UPDATE IS BELOW.


7 PM UPDATE...
A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
FULTON, NY AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE ONONDAGA/OSWEGO COUNTY
LINE. MARGINALLY COLD AIR NOW WITH TEPS AROUND 0C AROUND 5,000 WILL
COOL BACK TO -3C OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH KEEP
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION GOING. FAVORABLE PARAMETERS SUCH AS AN
INVERSION ARUOND 8,000 FEET AND A GOOD FETCH OVER LAKE ONTARIO MAY
LEAD TO STEADY RAINS AT TIMES. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT BAND
NOW IS A PRETTY GOOD INDICATOR OF WHERE IT WILL BE FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. WITH A 285 FLOW, EXTREME NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY WILL BE
BRUSHED BUT THE BULK WILL FALL IN THE CENTRAL PARTS OF ONEIDA
COUNTY (SYLVAN BEACH, CAMDEN, BLOSSVALE, ROME). TOWARD DAYBREAK
THE INVERSION COMES DOWN JUST A TAD AND WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY MORE
TOWARD 290/300. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE RAIN SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK
ALONG WITH TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A SPRAY OF RAIN SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. FAVORED AREAS HERE WILL INCLUDE FROM NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH INTO THE HILLS NEAR ROUTE 20 DOWN THROUGH
CORTLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF RIDGE WILL BRING A QUIET, COOL NIGHT TO NY AND PA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY, A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DIP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN ROTATE INTO THE DEEP
SERN U.S. BY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE WAVE, A DIFFUSE LOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED.
AS THE SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO CATCH UP TO THE COASTAL CYCLONE ON
SATURDAY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE PLACE.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL FIRST ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIP AS THE ENERGY TRANSFER TAKES PLACE. AT THIS POINT WE FEEL
SAFE IN FORECASTING HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT.

SFC TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATION COME INTO PLAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY, AS SNOW IS A REAL POSSIBILITY. GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG UPLIFT OVER THE AREA, DYNAMIC COOLING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A LARGE FACTOR. FOCUSING ON TEMP AND ELEVATION YIELDS AN AREA
OF RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY EAST AND FAR WEST. MINOR ACCUMS ARE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM WED UPDATE... REGARDING THE DEEP UPR-LVL WAVE PROGGED TO
AFFECT THE ERN STATES THIS WEEKEND...THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO DIG THIS SYSTEM FARTHER S AND E INTO VA/NC...BEFORE IT
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH...AND THEN PROCEEDS OUT TO SEA.
AS SUCH...ITS MAIN IMPACTS ON CNY/NE PA SHOULD BE TO PRODUCE SCTD
INSTAB DRIVEN -SHRA/-SHSN FRI NGT AND SAT...WITH PERHAPS SOME
SHORT-LIVED MULTI-BAND SHSN SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUN. FOR THE TIME
BEING...WE`VE RETAINED CHC POPS (30-50%) TO COVER THIS SCENARIO
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PD. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX LTR FRI
NGT AND SAT...WITH JUST SNOW SHWRS ANTICIPATED SAT NGT AND SUN
MRNG.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NE...A DRYING/MODERATING TREND
IS FORESEEN FROM SUN AFTN THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.

-SHRA COULD ARRIVE BY LTR TUE AFTN OR TUE NGT...AS THE NEXT NRN
STREAM S/WV AND SFC FRNTL COMPLEX APPROACH FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC TROF WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
USHERING IN A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. CIGS WILL
LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY 09Z AT THE NYS TERMINALS WITH LOW
MVFR CIGS AND UNRESTRICTED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KRME/KSYR
BETWEEN 09Z-14Z. AT KITH/KBGM, LOW MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR BY 09Z AND
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO LOW VFR AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT KAVP,
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN
12-18Z.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AM...VFR.

FRI PM THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 300209
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1009 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL WIND FLOWING OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY, BRINGING PLENTY
OF RAIN SHOWERS, AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER THE FINGER LAKES AS
THE LAKE ERIE BAND HAS MADE IT INTO PENN YAN AS OF LAST REPORT.
THIS AREA OF RAIN WON`T LAST LONG HOWEVER AS WIND ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO VEER MORE INTO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. AS THIS
HAPPENS THE FETCH OFF ERIE WILL DIMINISH THE PREVIOUS EARLIER
UPDATE IS BELOW.


7 PM UPDATE...
A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
FULTON, NY AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE ONONDAGA/OSWEGO COUNTY
LINE. MARGINALLY COLD AIR NOW WITH TEPS AROUND 0C AROUND 5,000 WILL
COOL BACK TO -3C OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH KEEP
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION GOING. FAVORABLE PARAMETERS SUCH AS AN
INVERSION ARUOND 8,000 FEET AND A GOOD FETCH OVER LAKE ONTARIO MAY
LEAD TO STEADY RAINS AT TIMES. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT BAND
NOW IS A PRETTY GOOD INDICATOR OF WHERE IT WILL BE FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. WITH A 285 FLOW, EXTREME NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY WILL BE
BRUSHED BUT THE BULK WILL FALL IN THE CENTRAL PARTS OF ONEIDA
COUNTY (SYLVAN BEACH, CAMDEN, BLOSSVALE, ROME). TOWARD DAYBREAK
THE INVERSION COMES DOWN JUST A TAD AND WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY MORE
TOWARD 290/300. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE RAIN SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK
ALONG WITH TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A SPRAY OF RAIN SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. FAVORED AREAS HERE WILL INCLUDE FROM NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH INTO THE HILLS NEAR ROUTE 20 DOWN THROUGH
CORTLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF RIDGE WILL BRING A QUIET, COOL NIGHT TO NY AND PA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY, A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DIP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN ROTATE INTO THE DEEP
SERN U.S. BY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE WAVE, A DIFFUSE LOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED.
AS THE SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO CATCH UP TO THE COASTAL CYCLONE ON
SATURDAY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE PLACE.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL FIRST ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIP AS THE ENERGY TRANSFER TAKES PLACE. AT THIS POINT WE FEEL
SAFE IN FORECASTING HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT.

SFC TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATION COME INTO PLAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY, AS SNOW IS A REAL POSSIBILITY. GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG UPLIFT OVER THE AREA, DYNAMIC COOLING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A LARGE FACTOR. FOCUSING ON TEMP AND ELEVATION YIELDS AN AREA
OF RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY EAST AND FAR WEST. MINOR ACCUMS ARE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM WED UPDATE... REGARDING THE DEEP UPR-LVL WAVE PROGGED TO
AFFECT THE ERN STATES THIS WEEKEND...THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO DIG THIS SYSTEM FARTHER S AND E INTO VA/NC...BEFORE IT
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH...AND THEN PROCEEDS OUT TO SEA.
AS SUCH...ITS MAIN IMPACTS ON CNY/NE PA SHOULD BE TO PRODUCE SCTD
INSTAB DRIVEN -SHRA/-SHSN FRI NGT AND SAT...WITH PERHAPS SOME
SHORT-LIVED MULTI-BAND SHSN SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUN. FOR THE TIME
BEING...WE`VE RETAINED CHC POPS (30-50%) TO COVER THIS SCENARIO
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PD. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX LTR FRI
NGT AND SAT...WITH JUST SNOW SHWRS ANTICIPATED SAT NGT AND SUN
MRNG.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NE...A DRYING/MODERATING TREND
IS FORESEEN FROM SUN AFTN THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.

-SHRA COULD ARRIVE BY LTR TUE AFTN OR TUE NGT...AS THE NEXT NRN
STREAM S/WV AND SFC FRNTL COMPLEX APPROACH FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COOL AND MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BLOW ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...CONTINUING A MOSTLY SOLID CLOUD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. VFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS
ATMOSPHERE COOLS. MOST PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO IS THAT CLOUDS WILL
SETTLE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...BUT COULD SINK A TOUCH LOWER INTO
THE FUEL ALTERNATE REQUIREMENT AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON
THAT POTENTIAL...SO FOR NOW WILL HOVER SEVERAL STATIONS RIGHT AT THE
THRESHOLD. RIGHT NOW IFR LOOKS TO BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY. CIGS
CREEP BACK TO VFR IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING
AND MIDLVL RIDGING COMING INTO PLAY.

WINDS LIGHT THIS EVENING BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT/FRI AM...VFR.

FRI PM THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...JAB








000
FXUS61 KBGM 300018
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
818 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL WIND FLOWING OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY, BRINGING PLENTY
OF RAIN SHOWERS, AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...
A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
FULTON, NY AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE ONONDAGA/OSWEGO COUNTY
LINE. MARGINALLY COLD AIR NOW WITH TEPS AROUND 0C AROUND 5,000 WILL
COOL BACK TO -3C OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH KEEP
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION GOING. FAVORABLE PARAMETERS SUCH AS AN
INVERSION ARUOND 8,000 FEET AND A GOOD FETCH OVER LAKE ONTARIO MAY
LEAD TO STEADY RAINS AT TIMES. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT BAND
NOW IS A PRETTY GOOD INDICATOR OF WHERE IT WILL BE FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. WITH A 285 FLOW, EXTREME NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY WILL BE
BRUSHED BUT THE BULK WILL FALL IN THE CENTRAL PARTS OF ONEIDA
COUNTY (SYLVAN BEACH, CAMDEN, BLOSSVALE, ROME). TOWARD DAYBREAK
THE INVERSION COMES DOWN JUST A TAD AND WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY MORE
TOWARD 290/300. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE RAIN SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK
ALONG WITH TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A SPRAY OF RAIN SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. FAVORED AREAS HERE WILL INCLUDE FROM NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH INTO THE HILLS NEAR ROUTE 20 DOWN THROUGH
CORTLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF RIDGE WILL BRING A QUIET, COOL NIGHT TO NY AND PA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY, A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DIP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN ROTATE INTO THE DEEP
SERN U.S. BY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE WAVE, A DIFFUSE LOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED.
AS THE SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO CATCH UP TO THE COASTAL CYCLONE ON
SATURDAY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE PLACE.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL FIRST ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIP AS THE ENERGY TRANSFER TAKES PLACE. AT THIS POINT WE FEEL
SAFE IN FORECASTING HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT.

SFC TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATION COME INTO PLAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY, AS SNOW IS A REAL POSSIBILITY. GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG UPLIFT OVER THE AREA, DYNAMIC COOLING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A LARGE FACTOR. FOCUSING ON TEMP AND ELEVATION YIELDS AN AREA
OF RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY EAST AND FAR WEST. MINOR ACCUMS ARE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM WED UPDATE... REGARDING THE DEEP UPR-LVL WAVE PROGGED TO
AFFECT THE ERN STATES THIS WEEKEND...THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO DIG THIS SYSTEM FARTHER S AND E INTO VA/NC...BEFORE IT
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH...AND THEN PROCEEDS OUT TO SEA.
AS SUCH...ITS MAIN IMPACTS ON CNY/NE PA SHOULD BE TO PRODUCE SCTD
INSTAB DRIVEN -SHRA/-SHSN FRI NGT AND SAT...WITH PERHAPS SOME
SHORT-LIVED MULTI-BAND SHSN SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUN. FOR THE TIME
BEING...WE`VE RETAINED CHC POPS (30-50%) TO COVER THIS SCENARIO
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PD. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX LTR FRI
NGT AND SAT...WITH JUST SNOW SHWRS ANTICIPATED SAT NGT AND SUN
MRNG.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NE...A DRYING/MODERATING TREND
IS FORESEEN FROM SUN AFTN THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.

-SHRA COULD ARRIVE BY LTR TUE AFTN OR TUE NGT...AS THE NEXT NRN
STREAM S/WV AND SFC FRNTL COMPLEX APPROACH FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COOL AND MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BLOW ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...CONTINUING A MOSTLY SOLID CLOUD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. VFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS
ATMOSPHERE COOLS. MOST PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO IS THAT CLOUDS WILL
SETTLE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...BUT COULD SINK A TOUCH LOWER INTO
THE FUEL ALTERNATE REQUIREMENT AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON
THAT POTENTIAL...SO FOR NOW WILL HOVER SEVERAL STATIONS RIGHT AT THE
THRESHOLD. RIGHT NOW IFR LOOKS TO BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY. CIGS
CREEP BACK TO VFR IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING
AND MIDLVL RIDGING COMING INTO PLAY.

WINDS LIGHT THIS EVENING BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT/FRI AM...VFR.

FRI PM THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...JAB








000
FXUS61 KBGM 292314
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
714 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL WIND FLOWING OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY, BRINGING PLENTY
OF RAIN SHOWERS, AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...
A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
FULTON, NY AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE ONONDAGA/OSWEGO COUNTY
LINE. MARGINALLY COLD AIR NOW WITH TEPS AROUND 0C AROUND 5,000 WILL
COOL BACK TO -3C OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH KEEP
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION GOING. FAVORABLE PARAMETERS SUCH AS AN
INVERSION ARUOND 8,000 FEET AND A GOOD FETCH OVER LAKE ONTARIO MAY
LEAD TO STEADY RAINS AT TIMES. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT BAND
NOW IS A PRETTY GOOD INDICATOR OF WHERE IT WILL BE FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. WITH A 285 FLOW, EXTREME NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY WILL BE
BRUSHED BUT THE BULK WILL FALL IN THE CENTRAL PARTS OF ONEIDA
COUNTY (SYLVAN BEACH, CAMDEN, BLOSSVALE, ROME). TOWARD DAYBREAK
THE INVERSION COMES DOWN JUST A TAD AND WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY MORE
TOWARD 290/300. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE RAIN SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK
ALONG WITH TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A SPRAY OF RAIN SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. FAVORED AREAS HERE WILL INCLUDE FROM NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH INTO THE HILLS NEAR ROUTE 20 DOWN THROUGH
CORTLAND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF RIDGE WILL BRING A QUIET, COOL NIGHT TO NY AND PA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY, A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DIP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN ROTATE INTO THE DEEP
SERN U.S. BY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE WAVE, A DIFFUSE LOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED.
AS THE SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO CATCH UP TO THE COASTAL CYCLONE ON
SATURDAY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE PLACE.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL FIRST ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIP AS THE ENERGY TRANSFER TAKES PLACE. AT THIS POINT WE FEEL
SAFE IN FORECASTING HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT.

SFC TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATION COME INTO PLAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY, AS SNOW IS A REAL POSSIBILITY. GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG UPLIFT OVER THE AREA, DYNAMIC COOLING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A LARGE FACTOR. FOCUSING ON TEMP AND ELEVATION YIELDS AN AREA
OF RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY EAST AND FAR WEST. MINOR ACCUMS ARE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM WED UPDATE... REGARDING THE DEEP UPR-LVL WAVE PROGGED TO
AFFECT THE ERN STATES THIS WEEKEND...THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO DIG THIS SYSTEM FARTHER S AND E INTO VA/NC...BEFORE IT
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH...AND THEN PROCEEDS OUT TO SEA.
AS SUCH...ITS MAIN IMPACTS ON CNY/NE PA SHOULD BE TO PRODUCE SCTD
INSTAB DRIVEN -SHRA/-SHSN FRI NGT AND SAT...WITH PERHAPS SOME
SHORT-LIVED MULTI-BAND SHSN SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUN. FOR THE TIME
BEING...WE`VE RETAINED CHC POPS (30-50%) TO COVER THIS SCENARIO
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PD. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX LTR FRI
NGT AND SAT...WITH JUST SNOW SHWRS ANTICIPATED SAT NGT AND SUN
MRNG.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NE...A DRYING/MODERATING TREND
IS FORESEEN FROM SUN AFTN THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.

-SHRA COULD ARRIVE BY LTR TUE AFTN OR TUE NGT...AS THE NEXT NRN
STREAM S/WV AND SFC FRNTL COMPLEX APPROACH FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE... VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. A
BAND OF -SHRA MAY IMPACT KAVP THROUGH 20-21Z...BUT SHWRS SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED IN NATURE. AFTERWARDS...THIS AREA OF PCPN SHOULD EXIT
OUR RGN TO THE E.

LTR TNT INTO EARLY THU...AN AREA OF SC CLDS SHOULD BUILD INTO CNY
AND THE NRN TIER OF PA...OWING MAINLY TO A MOIST LWR LVL
ENVIRONMENT...AND LAKE-EFFECT PROCESSES. MVFR CIGS ARE FORESEEN AT
KSYR AND KRME...ALG WITH OCNL -SHRA. MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL AT KITH
AND KBGM...BUT LESS LIKELY THAN FARTHER TO THE N. KELM AND KAVP
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

WRLY SFC WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT THIS AFTN...VEERING INTO THE
NW TNT AND THU.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT AND MOST OF FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 291843
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
243 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL WIND FLOWING OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY, BRINGING PLENTY
OF RAIN SHOWERS, AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOG THROUGH THE SERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5
HOURS. UNTIL THEN, RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. SECONDARY TROUGH
WILL ROTATE THROUGH TONIGHT, CAUSING STEEPER LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
THE LAKE SURFACE AND THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE.

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, AS WINDS SHIFT OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO. LAKE
INDUCED CAPES ARE PRETTY GOOD FOR LATE OCTOBER, AND SHEAR IS LIGHT
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE DRIVEN CONVECTION.

THE DOWNWIND COUNTIES OF NY WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY, BUT WEATHER WILL REMAIN FAIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF RIDGE WILL BRING A QUIET, COOL NIGHT TO NY AND PA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY, A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DIP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN ROTATE INTO THE DEEP
SERN U.S. BY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE WAVE, A DIFFUSE LOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED.
AS THE SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO CATCH UP TO THE COASTAL CYCLONE ON
SATURDAY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE PLACE.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL FIRST ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIP AS THE ENERGY TRANSFER TAKES PLACE. AT THIS POINT WE FEEL
SAFE IN FORECASTING HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT.

SFC TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATION COME INTO PLAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY, AS SNOW IS A REAL POSSIBILITY. GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG UPLIFT OVER THE AREA, DYNAMIC COOLING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A LARGE FACTOR. FOCUSING ON TEMP AND ELEVATION YIELDS AN AREA
OF RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY EAST AND FAR WEST. MINOR ACCUMS ARE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM WED UPDATE... REGARDING THE DEEP UPR-LVL WAVE PROGGED TO
AFFECT THE ERN STATES THIS WEEKEND...THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO DIG THIS SYSTEM FARTHER S AND E INTO VA/NC...BEFORE IT
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH...AND THEN PROCEEDS OUT TO SEA.
AS SUCH...ITS MAIN IMPACTS ON CNY/NE PA SHOULD BE TO PRODUCE SCTD
INSTAB DRIVEN -SHRA/-SHSN FRI NGT AND SAT...WITH PERHAPS SOME
SHORT-LIVED MULTI-BAND SHSN SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUN. FOR THE TIME
BEING...WE`VE RETAINED CHC POPS (30-50%) TO COVER THIS SCENARIO
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PD. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX LTR FRI
NGT AND SAT...WITH JUST SNOW SHWRS ANTICIPATED SAT NGT AND SUN
MRNG.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NE...A DRYING/MODERATING TREND
IS FORESEEN FROM SUN AFTN THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.

-SHRA COULD ARRIVE BY LTR TUE AFTN OR TUE NGT...AS THE NEXT NRN
STREAM S/WV AND SFC FRNTL COMPLEX APPROACH FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE... VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. A
BAND OF -SHRA MAY IMPACT KAVP THROUGH 20-21Z...BUT SHWRS SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED IN NATURE. AFTERWARDS...THIS AREA OF PCPN SHOULD EXIT
OUR RGN TO THE E.

LTR TNT INTO EARLY THU...AN AREA OF SC CLDS SHOULD BUILD INTO CNY
AND THE NRN TIER OF PA...OWING MAINLY TO A MOIST LWR LVL
ENVIRONMENT...AND LAKE-EFFECT PROCESSES. MVFR CIGS ARE FORESEEN AT
KSYR AND KRME...ALG WITH OCNL -SHRA. MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL AT KITH
AND KBGM...BUT LESS LIKELY THAN FARTHER TO THE N. KELM AND KAVP
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

WRLY SFC WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT THIS AFTN...VEERING INTO THE
NW TNT AND THU.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT AND MOST OF FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 291829
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
229 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL WIND FLOWING OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY, BRINGING PLENTY
OF RAIN SHOWERS, AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOG THROUGH THE SERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5
HOURS. UNTIL THEN, RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, AS WINDS SHIFT OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO. LAKE
INDUCED CAPES ARE PRETTY GOOD FOR LATE OCTOBER, AND SHEAR IS LIGHT
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE DRIVEN CONVECTION.

THE DOWNWIND COUNTIES OF NY WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY, BUT WEATHER WILL REMAIN FAIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SECONDARY SFC TROF WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. INITIALLY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK KEEPING
MOST OF THE LAKE SHOWERS NORTH OF THE FA. LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY FOR
NRN ONEIDA COUNTY WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NRN ONONDAGA/MADISON AND
SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN
DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ON THURSDAY, THE LAKE
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS BRIEF RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC
OCCURS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON LIFTING
ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE FA BY THURSDAY EVENING. REST
OF THE REGION WILL JUST BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MAXES IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES IN THE VCNTY WILL MOVE TO NEW
ENGLAND AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES. ENTIRE REGION WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH MINS IN THE
30S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. THE
RESULTING SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK WITH MODELS
INDICATING THE WESTERN CWA WILL BE BRUSHED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
EASTERN FA POSSIBLY REMAINING PRIMARILY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY, WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC POPS OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE
FAR SE. FRIDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW DROPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
INVERTED TROF BACK THROUGH WRN NY WILL CARRY LOW LIKELY POPS WEST
WITH HIGH CHC ELSEWHERE. WILL MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY LATE
NIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND IN STEUBEN
COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM WED UPDATE... REGARDING THE DEEP UPR-LVL WAVE PROGGED TO
AFFECT THE ERN STATES THIS WEEKEND...THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO DIG THIS SYSTEM FARTHER S AND E INTO VA/NC...BEFORE IT
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH...AND THEN PROCEEDS OUT TO SEA.
AS SUCH...ITS MAIN IMPACTS ON CNY/NE PA SHOULD BE TO PRODUCE SCTD
INSTAB DRIVEN -SHRA/-SHSN FRI NGT AND SAT...WITH PERHAPS SOME
SHORT-LIVED MULTI-BAND SHSN SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUN. FOR THE TIME
BEING...WE`VE RETAINED CHC POPS (30-50%) TO COVER THIS SCENARIO
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PD. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX LTR FRI
NGT AND SAT...WITH JUST SNOW SHWRS ANTICIPATED SAT NGT AND SUN
MRNG.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NE...A DRYING/MODERATING TREND
IS FORESEEN FROM SUN AFTN THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.

-SHRA COULD ARRIVE BY LTR TUE AFTN OR TUE NGT...AS THE NEXT NRN
STREAM S/WV AND SFC FRNTL COMPLEX APPROACH FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE... VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. A
BAND OF -SHRA MAY IMPACT KAVP THROUGH 20-21Z...BUT SHWRS SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED IN NATURE. AFTERWARDS...THIS AREA OF PCPN SHOULD EXIT
OUR RGN TO THE E.

LTR TNT INTO EARLY THU...AN AREA OF SC CLDS SHOULD BUILD INTO CNY
AND THE NRN TIER OF PA...OWING MAINLY TO A MOIST LWR LVL
ENVIRONMENT...AND LAKE-EFFECT PROCESSES. MVFR CIGS ARE FORESEEN AT
KSYR AND KRME...ALG WITH OCNL -SHRA. MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL AT KITH
AND KBGM...BUT LESS LIKELY THAN FARTHER TO THE N. KELM AND KAVP
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

WRLY SFC WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT THIS AFTN...VEERING INTO THE
NW TNT AND THU.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT AND MOST OF FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 291803
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
203 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL WIND FLOWING OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY, BRINGING PLENTY
OF RAIN SHOWERS, AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOG THROUGH THE SERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5
HOURS. UNTIL THEN, RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, AS WINDS SHIFT OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO. LAKE
INDUCED CAPES ARE PRETTY GOOD FOR LATE OCTOBER, AND SHEAR IS LIGHT
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE DRIVEN CONVECTION.

THE DOWNWIND COUNTIES OF NY WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY, BUT WEATHER WILL REMAIN FAIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SECONDARY SFC TROF WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. INITIALLY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK KEEPING
MOST OF THE LAKE SHOWERS NORTH OF THE FA. LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY FOR
NRN ONEIDA COUNTY WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NRN ONONDAGA/MADISON AND
SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN
DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ON THURSDAY, THE LAKE
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS BRIEF RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC
OCCURS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON LIFTING
ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE FA BY THURSDAY EVENING. REST
OF THE REGION WILL JUST BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MAXES IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES IN THE VCNTY WILL MOVE TO NEW
ENGLAND AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES. ENTIRE REGION WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH MINS IN THE
30S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. THE
RESULTING SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK WITH MODELS
INDICATING THE WESTERN CWA WILL BE BRUSHED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
EASTERN FA POSSIBLY REMAINING PRIMARILY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY, WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC POPS OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE
FAR SE. FRIDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW DROPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
INVERTED TROF BACK THROUGH WRN NY WILL CARRY LOW LIKELY POPS WEST
WITH HIGH CHC ELSEWHERE. WILL MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY LATE
NIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND IN STEUBEN
COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM TUE UPDATE... THE MAIN SYSTEM THIS PD CONTS TO BE THE DEEP
UPR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ERN STATES FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM...GIVEN THE OVERALL PATN...POSITIONING REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN ATTM. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS/EC RUNS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR FA...AGAIN IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS RATHER WIDE.

GIVEN ABV REASONING...WE`LL KEEP CHC POPS BOTH FRI NGT AND SAT
NGT...WITH POPS NOW INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ON SAT...AS THERE SHOULD
BE AT LEAST BE ENUF INSTAB/MOISTURE NEAR THE UPR TROUGH AXIS ITSELF
FOR NUMEROUS SHWRS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK COLD ENUF FOR AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NGT INTO SAT...TRENDING MORE TWDS SHSN LTR SAT
INTO EARLY SUN.

WE SHOULD DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPR TROUGH LIFTS AWAY
INTO THE N ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE... VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. A
BAND OF -SHRA MAY IMPACT KAVP THROUGH 20-21Z...BUT SHWRS SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED IN NATURE. AFTERWARDS...THIS AREA OF PCPN SHOULD EXIT
OUR RGN TO THE E.

LTR TNT INTO EARLY THU...AN AREA OF SC CLDS SHOULD BUILD INTO CNY
AND THE NRN TIER OF PA...OWING MAINLY TO A MOIST LWR LVL
ENVIRONMENT...AND LAKE-EFFECT PROCESSES. MVFR CIGS ARE FORESEEN AT
KSYR AND KRME...ALG WITH OCNL -SHRA. MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL AT KITH
AND KBGM...BUT LESS LIKELY THAN FARTHER TO THE N. KELM AND KAVP
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

WRLY SFC WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT THIS AFTN...VEERING INTO THE
NW TNT AND THU.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT AND MOST OF FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 291744
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
144 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS THROUGH MIDDAY. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN EVEN COOLER AIR ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED APPRECIABLY OVER THE SERN FA, AS FORECAST BY
THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA FROM ONEONTA
DOWN TO BINGHAMTON IS IN THE CLEAR. HOWEVER, SLOW MOVEMENT OF
FRONT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SERN FA THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON.

MAY NEED TO MAKE MAX TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS UNDER THE RAIN
SHOWERS, AS THIS AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM UP PRIOR TO SUNSET IF
THE RAIN CONTINUES.


AT 430 AM...SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY. WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS
WERE OCCURRING IN THIS REGION WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE ANOTHER
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND TRACKS INTO
THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER NE PA AND THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY ALTHOUGH AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
COOL THIS AFTERNOON LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NRN FINGER LAKES REGION AND LAKE PLAIN FROM LAKE ERIE
UNDER SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FALLING
THROUGH MID MORNING THEN REBOUND ONLY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO LOW
LEVEL CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SECONDARY SFC TROF WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. INITIALLY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK KEEPING
MOST OF THE LAKE SHOWERS NORTH OF THE FA. LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY FOR
NRN ONEIDA COUNTY WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NRN ONONDAGA/MADISON AND
SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN
DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ON THURSDAY, THE LAKE
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS BRIEF RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC
OCCURS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON LIFTING
ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE FA BY THURSDAY EVENING. REST
OF THE REGION WILL JUST BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MAXES IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES IN THE VCNTY WILL MOVE TO NEW
ENGLAND AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES. ENTIRE REGION WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH MINS IN THE
30S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. THE
RESULTING SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK WITH MODELS
INDICATING THE WESTERN CWA WILL BE BRUSHED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
EASTERN FA POSSIBLY REMAINING PRIMARILY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY, WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC POPS OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE
FAR SE. FRIDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW DROPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
INVERTED TROF BACK THROUGH WRN NY WILL CARRY LOW LIKELY POPS WEST
WITH HIGH CHC ELSEWHERE. WILL MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY LATE
NIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND IN STEUBEN
COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM TUE UPDATE... THE MAIN SYSTEM THIS PD CONTS TO BE THE DEEP
UPR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ERN STATES FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM...GIVEN THE OVERALL PATN...POSITIONING REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN ATTM. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS/EC RUNS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR FA...AGAIN IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS RATHER WIDE.

GIVEN ABV REASONING...WE`LL KEEP CHC POPS BOTH FRI NGT AND SAT
NGT...WITH POPS NOW INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ON SAT...AS THERE SHOULD
BE AT LEAST BE ENUF INSTAB/MOISTURE NEAR THE UPR TROUGH AXIS ITSELF
FOR NUMEROUS SHWRS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK COLD ENUF FOR AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NGT INTO SAT...TRENDING MORE TWDS SHSN LTR SAT
INTO EARLY SUN.

WE SHOULD DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPR TROUGH LIFTS AWAY
INTO THE N ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE... VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. A
BAND OF -SHRA MAY IMPACT KAVP THROUGH 20-21Z...BUT SHWRS SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED IN NATURE. AFTERWARDS...THIS AREA OF PCPN SHOULD EXIT
OUR RGN TO THE E.

LTR TNT INTO EARLY THU...AN AREA OF SC CLDS SHOULD BUILD INTO CNY
AND THE NRN TIER OF PA...OWING MAINLY TO A MOIST LWR LVL
ENVIRONMENT...AND LAKE-EFFECT PROCESSES. MVFR CIGS ARE FORESEEN AT
KSYR AND KRME...ALG WITH OCNL -SHRA. MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL AT KITH
AND KBGM...BUT LESS LIKELY THAN FARTHER TO THE N. KELM AND KAVP
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

WRLY SFC WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT THIS AFTN...VEERING INTO THE
NW TNT AND THU.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT AND MOST OF FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 291421
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1021 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS THROUGH MIDDAY. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN EVEN COOLER AIR ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED APPRECIABLY OVER THE SERN FA, AS FORECAST BY
THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA FROM ONEONTA
DOWN TO BINGHAMTON IS IN THE CLEAR. HOWEVER, SLOW MOVEMENT OF
FRONT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SERN FA THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON.

MAY NEED TO MAKE MAX TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS UNDER THE RAIN
SHOWERS, AS THIS AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM UP PRIOR TO SUNSET IF
THE RAIN CONTINUES.


AT 430 AM...SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY. WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS
WERE OCCURRING IN THIS REGION WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE ANOTHER
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND TRACKS INTO
THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER NE PA AND THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY ALTHOUGH AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
COOL THIS AFTERNOON LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NRN FINGER LAKES REGION AND LAKE PLAIN FROM LAKE ERIE
UNDER SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FALLING
THROUGH MID MORNING THEN REBOUND ONLY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO LOW
LEVEL CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SECONDARY SFC TROF WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. INITIALLY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK KEEPING
MOST OF THE LAKE SHOWERS NORTH OF THE FA. LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY FOR
NRN ONEIDA COUNTY WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NRN ONONDAGA/MADISON AND
SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN
DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ON THURSDAY, THE LAKE
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS BRIEF RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC
OCCURS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON LIFTING
ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE FA BY THURSDAY EVENING. REST
OF THE REGION WILL JUST BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MAXES IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES IN THE VCNTY WILL MOVE TO NEW
ENGLAND AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES. ENTIRE REGION WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH MINS IN THE
30S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. THE
RESULTING SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK WITH MODELS
INDICATING THE WESTERN CWA WILL BE BRUSHED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
EASTERN FA POSSIBLY REMAINING PRIMARILY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY, WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC POPS OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE
FAR SE. FRIDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW DROPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
INVERTED TROF BACK THROUGH WRN NY WILL CARRY LOW LIKELY POPS WEST
WITH HIGH CHC ELSEWHERE. WILL MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY LATE
NIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND IN STEUBEN
COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM TUE UPDATE... THE MAIN SYSTEM THIS PD CONTS TO BE THE DEEP
UPR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ERN STATES FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM...GIVEN THE OVERALL PATN...POSITIONING REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN ATTM. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS/EC RUNS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR FA...AGAIN IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS RATHER WIDE.

GIVEN ABV REASONING...WE`LL KEEP CHC POPS BOTH FRI NGT AND SAT
NGT...WITH POPS NOW INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ON SAT...AS THERE SHOULD
BE AT LEAST BE ENUF INSTAB/MOISTURE NEAR THE UPR TROUGH AXIS ITSELF
FOR NUMEROUS SHWRS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK COLD ENUF FOR AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NGT INTO SAT...TRENDING MORE TWDS SHSN LTR SAT
INTO EARLY SUN.

WE SHOULD DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPR TROUGH LIFTS AWAY
INTO THE N ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT MOST OF THESE SHOWERS TO REMAIN
VFR WITH EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DRIFT
EAST AWAY FROM ALL TAF SITES LATE THIS MORNING. AFTER THESE
SHOWERS MOVE EAST EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT.
AFTER 00Z... LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
KRME AND KSYR. THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS AND MAY PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE TODAY THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 291037
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
637 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS THROUGH MIDDAY. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN EVEN COOLER AIR ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 430 AM...SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY. WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS
WERE OCCURRING IN THIS REGION WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE ANOTHER
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND TRACKS INTO
THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER NE PA AND THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY ALTHOUGH AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
COOL THIS AFTERNOON LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NRN FINGER LAKES REGION AND LAKE PLAIN FROM LAKE ERIE
UNDER SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FALLING
THROUGH MID MORNING THEN REBOUND ONLY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO LOW
LEVEL CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SECONDARY SFC TROF WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. INITIALLY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK KEEPING
MOST OF THE LAKE SHOWERS NORTH OF THE FA. LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY FOR
NRN ONEIDA COUNTY WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NRN ONONDAGA/MADISON AND
SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN
DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ON THURSDAY, THE LAKE
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS BRIEF RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC
OCCURS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON LIFTING
ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE FA BY THURSDAY EVENING. REST
OF THE REGION WILL JUST BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MAXES IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES IN THE VCNTY WILL MOVE TO NEW
ENGLAND AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES. ENTIRE REGION WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH MINS IN THE
30S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. THE
RESULTING SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK WITH MODELS
INDICATING THE WESTERN CWA WILL BE BRUSHED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
EASTERN FA POSSIBLY REMAINING PRIMARILY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY, WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC POPS OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE
FAR SE. FRIDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW DROPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
INVERTED TROF BACK THROUGH WRN NY WILL CARRY LOW LIKELY POPS WEST
WITH HIGH CHC ELSEWHERE. WILL MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY LATE
NIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND IN STEUBEN
COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM TUE UPDATE... THE MAIN SYSTEM THIS PD CONTS TO BE THE DEEP
UPR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ERN STATES FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM...GIVEN THE OVERALL PATN...POSITIONING REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN ATTM. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS/EC RUNS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR FA...AGAIN IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS RATHER WIDE.

GIVEN ABV REASONING...WE`LL KEEP CHC POPS BOTH FRI NGT AND SAT
NGT...WITH POPS NOW INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ON SAT...AS THERE SHOULD
BE AT LEAST BE ENUF INSTAB/MOISTURE NEAR THE UPR TROUGH AXIS ITSELF
FOR NUMEROUS SHWRS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK COLD ENUF FOR AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NGT INTO SAT...TRENDING MORE TWDS SHSN LTR SAT
INTO EARLY SUN.

WE SHOULD DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPR TROUGH LIFTS AWAY
INTO THE N ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT MOST OF THESE SHOWERS TO REMAIN
VFR WITH EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DRIFT
EAST AWAY FROM ALL TAF SITES LATE THIS MORNING. AFTER THESE
SHOWERS MOVE EAST EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT.
AFTER 00Z... LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
KRME AND KSYR. THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS AND MAY PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE TODAY THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH









000
FXUS61 KBGM 291037
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
637 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS THROUGH MIDDAY. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN EVEN COOLER AIR ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 430 AM...SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY. WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS
WERE OCCURRING IN THIS REGION WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE ANOTHER
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND TRACKS INTO
THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER NE PA AND THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY ALTHOUGH AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
COOL THIS AFTERNOON LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NRN FINGER LAKES REGION AND LAKE PLAIN FROM LAKE ERIE
UNDER SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FALLING
THROUGH MID MORNING THEN REBOUND ONLY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO LOW
LEVEL CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SECONDARY SFC TROF WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. INITIALLY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK KEEPING
MOST OF THE LAKE SHOWERS NORTH OF THE FA. LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY FOR
NRN ONEIDA COUNTY WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NRN ONONDAGA/MADISON AND
SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN
DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ON THURSDAY, THE LAKE
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS BRIEF RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC
OCCURS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON LIFTING
ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE FA BY THURSDAY EVENING. REST
OF THE REGION WILL JUST BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MAXES IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES IN THE VCNTY WILL MOVE TO NEW
ENGLAND AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES. ENTIRE REGION WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH MINS IN THE
30S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. THE
RESULTING SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK WITH MODELS
INDICATING THE WESTERN CWA WILL BE BRUSHED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
EASTERN FA POSSIBLY REMAINING PRIMARILY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY, WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC POPS OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE
FAR SE. FRIDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW DROPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
INVERTED TROF BACK THROUGH WRN NY WILL CARRY LOW LIKELY POPS WEST
WITH HIGH CHC ELSEWHERE. WILL MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY LATE
NIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND IN STEUBEN
COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM TUE UPDATE... THE MAIN SYSTEM THIS PD CONTS TO BE THE DEEP
UPR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ERN STATES FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM...GIVEN THE OVERALL PATN...POSITIONING REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN ATTM. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS/EC RUNS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR FA...AGAIN IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS RATHER WIDE.

GIVEN ABV REASONING...WE`LL KEEP CHC POPS BOTH FRI NGT AND SAT
NGT...WITH POPS NOW INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ON SAT...AS THERE SHOULD
BE AT LEAST BE ENUF INSTAB/MOISTURE NEAR THE UPR TROUGH AXIS ITSELF
FOR NUMEROUS SHWRS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK COLD ENUF FOR AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NGT INTO SAT...TRENDING MORE TWDS SHSN LTR SAT
INTO EARLY SUN.

WE SHOULD DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPR TROUGH LIFTS AWAY
INTO THE N ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT MOST OF THESE SHOWERS TO REMAIN
VFR WITH EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DRIFT
EAST AWAY FROM ALL TAF SITES LATE THIS MORNING. AFTER THESE
SHOWERS MOVE EAST EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT.
AFTER 00Z... LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
KRME AND KSYR. THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS AND MAY PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE TODAY THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH









000
FXUS61 KBGM 290838
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
438 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS THROUGH MIDDAY. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN EVEN COOLER AIR ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 430 AM...SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY. WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS
WERE OCCURRING IN THIS REGION WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE ANOTHER
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND TRACKS INTO
THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER NE PA AND THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY ALTHOUGH AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
COOL THIS AFTERNOON LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NRN FINGER LAKES REGION AND LAKE PLAIN FROM LAKE ERIE
UNDER SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FALLING
THROUGH MID MORNING THEN REBOUND ONLY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO LOW
LEVEL CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SECONDARY SFC TROF WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. INITIALLY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK KEEPING
MOST OF THE LAKE SHOWERS NORTH OF THE FA. LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY FOR
NRN ONEIDA COUNTY WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NRN ONONDAGA/MADISON AND
SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN
DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ON THURSDAY, THE LAKE
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS BRIEF RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC
OCCURS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON LIFTING
ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE FA BY THURSDAY EVENING. REST
OF THE REGION WILL JUST BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MAXES IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES IN THE VCNTY WILL MOVE TO NEW
ENGLAND AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES. ENTIRE REGION WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH MINS IN THE
30S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. THE
RESULTING SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK WITH MODELS
INDICATING THE WESTERN CWA WILL BE BRUSHED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
EASTERN FA POSSIBLY REMAINING PRIMARILY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY, WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC POPS OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE
FAR SE. FRIDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW DROPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
INVERTED TROF BACK THROUGH WRN NY WILL CARRY LOW LIKELY POPS WEST
WITH HIGH CHC ELSEWHERE. WILL MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY LATE
NIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND IN STEUBEN
COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM TUE UPDATE... THE MAIN SYSTEM THIS PD CONTS TO BE THE DEEP
UPR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ERN STATES FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM...GIVEN THE OVERALL PATN...POSITIONING REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN ATTM. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS/EC RUNS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR FA...AGAIN IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS RATHER WIDE.

GIVEN ABV REASONING...WE`LL KEEP CHC POPS BOTH FRI NGT AND SAT
NGT...WITH POPS NOW INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ON SAT...AS THERE SHOULD
BE AT LEAST BE ENUF INSTAB/MOISTURE NEAR THE UPR TROUGH AXIS ITSELF
FOR NUMEROUS SHWRS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK COLD ENUF FOR AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NGT INTO SAT...TRENDING MORE TWDS SHSN LTR SAT
INTO EARLY SUN.

WE SHOULD DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPR TROUGH LIFTS AWAY
INTO THE N ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALONG A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS FOR THE MOST
PART WILL REMAIN VFR BUT EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
LOW LVL DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS... THUS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES LATE
WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LAKE EFFECT INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS KITH AND KSYR... BUT DECIDED TO KEEP
OUT OF TAF ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...THU...AND INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 290551
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
151 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR PUSH WILL ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY AND LAST
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS WORKING EASTWARD INTO THE FINGER LAKES TO
UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. THE SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A
40+ KNOT SWRLY JET AT AROUND 850 MB WHICH IS TRANSPORTING
SIGNIFICANT AMNTS OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NY AND PA AHEAD OF A
FRNTL BNDRY. THIS FRONT WAS ENTERING FAR WRN NY S TO ERN OH. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRG UPPER LEVEL WAVE NOW ENTERING INTO WRN
QUEBEC AND CONTINUING TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM C NY
AND NE PA. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE SW AND THE FRNT WILL
SLOWLY WORK E AND SE OVERNIGHT AND ALMOST STALL OUT OVER NE PA TO
THE CATSKILLS LATE TONIGHT. THE SHRA WILL SLOWLY WORK S AND E
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT AND WEAKEN SOME AS THEY APPROACH NE PA AND
SERN NY.

THE INSTABILITY WAS WEAK WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE STILL RUNNING
CLOSE TO 100 J/KG WITH THE SHRA. THERE WILL AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKE SO WILL CONT WITH A CHC FOR THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND THEN HAVE NO THUNDER OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT
TRACKS OFF TO THE NE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PRESENTLY OVER KS AND MO. THIS WAVE WILL RAPIDLY WORK EAST AND
PROVIDE LIFTING AND KEEP THE SHRA GOING FOR NE PA AND SERN NY WED
AM AND BE THE IMPETUS TO PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR ACRS NY AND PA. THIS
WILL LEAD TO COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH A TROUGH AXIS AT 700
MB. THIS CAA AT 700 MB OCCURS ABV WEAKER CAA AT 850 MB WHICH WILL
LEAD TO SOME DESTABILIZATION LATER IN THE DAY WED. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO AND A W-NW
FLOW. SO HAVE POPS AS THIS 700 MB TROUGH WORKS THRU LATER IN THE
DAY. THEN THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP ACRS NC NY FOR WED
EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT / SFC TROUGH WILL SLOW ON WEDNESDAY, KEEPING OUR
REGION IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT LEAST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. INCREASED DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT, COMBINED WITH NOT
TOO COOL 925-850 LAYER TEMPS, SUGGESTS TO ME THAT LATE DAY MAXES
MIGHT BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FIRST THOUGHT. HAVE INCREASED MAXES
TO 55 TO 60.

LAKE FLOW DOMINATES FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
850MB TEMPS ARE IN THE 0C TO -2C RANGE, AND GIVEN MILD LAKE
TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY AND ONLY MILD SHEAR. HAVE ALIGNED THE POTENTIAL LAKE
RAIN SHOWERS BAND INTO ONONDAGA...MADISON...AND ONEIDA COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR INTO NY AND PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM TUE UPDATE... THE MAIN SYSTEM THIS PD CONTS TO BE THE DEEP
UPR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ERN STATES FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM...GIVEN THE OVERALL PATN...POSITIONING REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN ATTM. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS/EC RUNS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR FA...AGAIN IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS RATHER WIDE.

GIVEN ABV REASONING...WE`LL KEEP CHC POPS BOTH FRI NGT AND SAT
NGT...WITH POPS NOW INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ON SAT...AS THERE SHOULD
BE AT LEAST BE ENUF INSTAB/MOISTURE NEAR THE UPR TROUGH AXIS ITSELF
FOR NUMEROUS SHWRS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK COLD ENUF FOR AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NGT INTO SAT...TRENDING MORE TWDS SHSN LTR SAT
INTO EARLY SUN.

WE SHOULD DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPR TROUGH LIFTS AWAY
INTO THE N ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALONG A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS FOR THE MOST
PART WILL REMAIN VFR BUT EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
LOW LVL DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS... THUS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES LATE
WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LAKE EFFECT INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS KITH AND KSYR... BUT DECIDED TO KEEP
OUT OF TAF ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...THU...AND INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH









000
FXUS61 KBGM 290222
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1022 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR PUSH WILL ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY AND LAST
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS WORKING EASTWARD INTO THE FINGER LAKES TO
UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. THE SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A
40+ KNOT SWRLY JET AT AROUND 850 MB WHICH IS TRANSPORTING
SIGNIFICANT AMNTS OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NY AND PA AHEAD OF A
FRNTL BNDRY. THIS FRONT WAS ENTERING FAR WRN NY S TO ERN OH. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRG UPPER LEVEL WAVE NOW ENTERING INTO WRN
QUEBEC AND CONTINUING TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM C NY
AND NE PA. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE SW AND THE FRNT WILL
SLOWLY WORK E AND SE OVERNIGHT AND ALMOST STALL OUT OVER NE PA TO
THE CATSKILLS LATE TONIGHT. THE SHRA WILL SLOWLY WORK S AND E
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT AND WEAKEN SOME AS THEY APPROACH NE PA AND
SERN NY.

THE INSTABILITY WAS WEAK WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE STILL RUNNING
CLOSE TO 100 J/KG WITH THE SHRA. THERE WILL AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKE SO WILL CONT WITH A CHC FOR THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND THEN HAVE NO THUNDER OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT
TRACKS OFF TO THE NE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PRESENTLY OVER KS AND MO. THIS WAVE WILL RAPIDLY WORK EAST AND
PROVIDE LIFTING AND KEEP THE SHRA GOING FOR NE PA AND SERN NY WED
AM AND BE THE IMPETUS TO PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR ACRS NY AND PA. THIS
WILL LEAD TO COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH A TROUGH AXIS AT 700
MB. THIS CAA AT 700 MB OCCURS ABV WEAKER CAA AT 850 MB WHICH WILL
LEAD TO SOME DESTABILIZATION LATER IN THE DAY WED. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO AND A W-NW
FLOW. SO HAVE POPS AS THIS 700 MB TROUGH WORKS THRU LATER IN THE
DAY. THEN THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP ACRS NC NY FOR WED
EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT / SFC TROUGH WILL SLOW ON WEDNESDAY, KEEPING OUR
REGION IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT LEAST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. INCREASED DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT, COMBINED WITH NOT
TOO COOL 925-850 LAYER TEMPS, SUGGESTS TO ME THAT LATE DAY MAXES
MIGHT BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FIRST THOUGHT. HAVE INCREASED MAXES
TO 55 TO 60.

LAKE FLOW DOMINATES FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
850MB TEMPS ARE IN THE 0C TO -2C RANGE, AND GIVEN MILD LAKE
TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY AND ONLY MILD SHEAR. HAVE ALIGNED THE POTENTIAL LAKE
RAIN SHOWERS BAND INTO ONONDAGA...MADISON...AND ONEIDA COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR INTO NY AND PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM TUE UPDATE... THE MAIN SYSTEM THIS PD CONTS TO BE THE DEEP
UPR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ERN STATES FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM...GIVEN THE OVERALL PATN...POSITIONING REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN ATTM. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS/EC RUNS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR FA...AGAIN IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS RATHER WIDE.

GIVEN ABV REASONING...WE`LL KEEP CHC POPS BOTH FRI NGT AND SAT
NGT...WITH POPS NOW INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ON SAT...AS THERE SHOULD
BE AT LEAST BE ENUF INSTAB/MOISTURE NEAR THE UPR TROUGH AXIS ITSELF
FOR NUMEROUS SHWRS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK COLD ENUF FOR AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NGT INTO SAT...TRENDING MORE TWDS SHSN LTR SAT
INTO EARLY SUN.

WE SHOULD DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPR TROUGH LIFTS AWAY
INTO THE N ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHWRS MVG IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FNT WILL MOVE THRU THE TAF SITES
THIS EVE AND BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. FNT WILL CLR THE NY
STATIONS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AND BE FLWD BY DRIER AIR AND VFR
CONDS. AT AVP...FNT WILL LINGER INTO WED BRINGING A LONGER PD OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS. THR FNT WILL FNLY CLR AVP ARND
12Z. ALL STATIONS WILL SEE A DRIER WLY FLOW ON WED AND VFR CONDS
THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...THU...AND INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ






000
FXUS61 KBGM 290002
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
802 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR REGION THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR PUSH WILL ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY AND LAST
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT ON GOING SHOWERS
OF RAIN ENTERING THE WRN FINGER LAKES REGION TO EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. THIS
FEATURE WAS ACCELERATING A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STREAK UP
THRU NY AND PA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WAS TRANSPORTING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND LEADING TO THE SHRA. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL
CONT MOVG TO THE NE AND THE SHRA WILL MAKE INROADS FURTHER E AND
SE INTO C NY AND FAR NRN PA BY AROUND 5-6Z. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO
PUSH THE SFC FRNT S AND E INTO C NY. THE SHRA WILL CONT TO TRACK OFF
TO THE SE AND WEAKEN AFTER 6Z AS THE UPPER SUPPORT TRACKS INTO
SERN CANADA. THE SFC FRNT WILL HANG UP FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESSES EASTWARD FOR WED. THIS
NEXT WAVE WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR ALL OF C NY AND NE PA AND
PRESS TO PRECIPITATION E OF NE PA AND SERN NY BY WED PM.

AT THIS TIME ALL THE RADAR ECHOES ARE SHOWING AN UNORGANIZED
SHOWERY APPEARANCE WITH NO LINEAR FEATURES. HENCE HAVENT SEEN AS
SIGNIFICANT WINDS DUE TO CONVECTION. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS HAS
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ARND 100 J/KG. SO WILL KEEP RUMBLE OF THUNDER
THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NE LATER TONIGHT
AMS IS MORE STABLE SO CHANCES FOR THUNDER WANE LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT / SFC TROUGH WILL SLOW ON WEDNESDAY, KEEPING OUR
REGION IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT LEAST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. INCREASED DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT, COMBINED WITH NOT
TOO COOL 925-850 LAYER TEMPS, SUGGESTS TO ME THAT LATE DAY MAXES
MIGHT BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FIRST THOUGHT. HAVE INCREASED MAXES
TO 55 TO 60.

LAKE FLOW DOMINATES FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
850MB TEMPS ARE IN THE 0C TO -2C RANGE, AND GIVEN MILD LAKE
TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY AND ONLY MILD SHEAR. HAVE ALIGNED THE POTENTIAL LAKE
RAIN SHOWERS BAND INTO ONONDAGA...MADISON...AND ONEIDA COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR INTO NY AND PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM TUE UPDATE... THE MAIN SYSTEM THIS PD CONTS TO BE THE DEEP
UPR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ERN STATES FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM...GIVEN THE OVERALL PATN...POSITIONING REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN ATTM. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS/EC RUNS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR FA...AGAIN IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS RATHER WIDE.

GIVEN ABV REASONING...WE`LL KEEP CHC POPS BOTH FRI NGT AND SAT
NGT...WITH POPS NOW INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ON SAT...AS THERE SHOULD
BE AT LEAST BE ENUF INSTAB/MOISTURE NEAR THE UPR TROUGH AXIS ITSELF
FOR NUMEROUS SHWRS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK COLD ENUF FOR AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NGT INTO SAT...TRENDING MORE TWDS SHSN LTR SAT
INTO EARLY SUN.

WE SHOULD DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPR TROUGH LIFTS AWAY
INTO THE N ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SHWRS MVG IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FNT WILL MOVE THRU THE TAF SITES
THIS EVE AND BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. FNT WILL CLR THE NY
STATIONS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AND BE FLWD BY DRIER AIR AND VFR
CONDS. AT AVP...FNT WILL LINGER INTO WED BRINGING A LONGER PD OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS. THR FNT WILL FNLY CLR AVP ARND
12Z. ALL STATIONS WILL SEE A DRIER WLY FLOW ON WED AND VFR CONDS
THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...THU...AND INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN...VFR.


&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/DJP
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 282351
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
751 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR REGION THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR PUSH WILL ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY AND LAST
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT ON GOING SHOWERS
OF RAIN ENTERING THE WRN FINGER LAKES REGION TO EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. THIS
FEATURE WAS ACCELERATING A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STREAK UP
THRU NY AND PA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WAS TRANSPORTING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND LEADING TO THE SHRA. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL
CONT MOVG TO THE NE AND THE SHRA WILL MAKE INROADS FURTHER E AND
SE INTO C NY AND FAR NRN PA BY AROUND 5-6Z. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO
PUSH THE SFC FRNT S AND E INTO C NY. THE SHRA WILL CONT TO TRACK OFF
TO THE SE AND WEAKEN AFTER 6Z AS THE UPPER SUPPORT TRACKS INTO
SERN CANADA. THE SFC FRNT WILL HANG UP FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESSES EASTWARD FOR WED. THIS
NEXT WAVE WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR ALL OF C NY AND NE PA AND
PRESS TO PRECIPITATION E OF NE PA AND SERN NY BY WED PM.

AT THIS TIME ALL THE RADAR ECHOES ARE SHOWING AN UNORGANIZED
SHOWERY APPEARANCE WITH NO LINEAR FEATURES. HENCE HAVENT SEEN AS
SIGNIFICANT WINDS DUE TO CONVECTION. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS HAS
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ARND 100 J/KG. SO WILL KEEP RUMBLE OF THUNDER
THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NE LATER TONIGHT
AMS IS MORE STABLE SO CHANCES FOR THUNDER WANE LATER.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT / SFC TROUGH WILL SLOW ON WEDNESDAY, KEEPING OUR
REGION IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT LEAST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. INCREASED DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT, COMBINED WITH NOT
TOO COOL 925-850 LAYER TEMPS, SUGGESTS TO ME THAT LATE DAY MAXES
MIGHT BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FIRST THOUGHT. HAVE INCREASED MAXES
TO 55 TO 60.

LAKE FLOW DOMINATES FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
850MB TEMPS ARE IN THE 0C TO -2C RANGE, AND GIVEN MILD LAKE
TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY AND ONLY MILD SHEAR. HAVE ALIGNED THE POTENTIAL LAKE
RAIN SHOWERS BAND INTO ONONDAGA...MADISON...AND ONEIDA COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR INTO NY AND PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM TUE UPDATE... THE MAIN SYSTEM THIS PD CONTS TO BE THE DEEP
UPR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ERN STATES FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM...GIVEN THE OVERALL PATN...POSITIONING REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN ATTM. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS/EC RUNS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR FA...AGAIN IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS RATHER WIDE.

GIVEN ABV REASONING...WE`LL KEEP CHC POPS BOTH FRI NGT AND SAT
NGT...WITH POPS NOW INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ON SAT...AS THERE SHOULD
BE AT LEAST BE ENUF INSTAB/MOISTURE NEAR THE UPR TROUGH AXIS ITSELF
FOR NUMEROUS SHWRS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK COLD ENUF FOR AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NGT INTO SAT...TRENDING MORE TWDS SHSN LTR SAT
INTO EARLY SUN.

WE SHOULD DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPR TROUGH LIFTS AWAY
INTO THE N ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUE UPDATE... VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE TIL LTR THIS EVE...WHEN A
BAND OF -SHRA PROGRESSES THROUGH THE RGN. AT LEAST PERIODIC MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL WITH THESE SHWRS AREA-WIDE.

SHWRS SHOULD BE OUT OF ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT PERHAPS KAVP...PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AT THAT POINT...AT LEAST
FOR A TIME. AT KAVP...SHWRS MAY LINGER TIL 12-14Z...BEFORE EXITING
TO THE E.

FROM LATE MRNG WED (ABT 15Z) ONWARD...A SC CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER CNY...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL (HIGHEST PROBABILITY
OF RESTRICTIVE CONDS AT KRME AND KSYR). ACRS NE PA (KAVP
VICINITY)...THIS CLOUD FIELD MAY BE LESS PREVALENT...WITH VFR
LIKELY TO CONTINUE.

S TO SW SFC WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTN...BEFORE
DIMINISHING TNT. WRLY SFC WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KT ON WED.


OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...THU...AND INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/DJP
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 281839
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
239 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS...SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS...TO
OUR REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOL AIR PUSH WILL
ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL AID A
COLD/DRY AIR PUSH MOVING INTO MI ATTM. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO NY/PA THIS EVENING, SOME WITH
GUSTY WINDS.

LOCAL INTERNAL STUDIES SHOW THAT VERY HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENTS SUCH
AS THESE CAN OFTEN PRODUCE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. TODAY, WE ARE
FORECASTING 0-6KM SHEAR OF 45 KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS ALONG
THE FRONT.

THIS AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SOMETIMES SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AT ML CAPES UNDER 500 J/KG. IN THIS
CASE, HOWEVER, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ML CAPES NEAR ZERO, TO AT
MOST 50-100 J/KG. THAT MIGHT BE TOO LOW, EVEN IN THIS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.

WILL STICK TO SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEFORE 4Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT / SFC TROUGH WILL SLOW ON WEDNESDAY, KEEPING OUR
REGION IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT LEAST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. INCREASED DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT, COMBINED WITH NOT
TOO COOL 925-850 LAYER TEMPS, SUGGESTS TO ME THAT LATE DAY MAXES
MIGHT BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FIRST THOUGHT. HAVE INCREASED MAXES
TO 55 TO 60.

LAKE FLOW DOMINATES FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
850MB TEMPS ARE IN THE 0C TO -2C RANGE, AND GIVEN MILD LAKE
TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY AND ONLY MILD SHEAR. HAVE ALIGNED THE POTENTIAL LAKE
RAIN SHOWERS BAND INTO ONONDAGA...MADISON...AND ONEIDA COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR INTO NY AND PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM TUE UPDATE... THE MAIN SYSTEM THIS PD CONTS TO BE THE DEEP
UPR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ERN STATES FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM...GIVEN THE OVERALL PATN...POSITIONING REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN ATTM. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS/EC RUNS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR FA...AGAIN IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS RATHER WIDE.

GIVEN ABV REASONING...WE`LL KEEP CHC POPS BOTH FRI NGT AND SAT
NGT...WITH POPS NOW INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ON SAT...AS THERE SHOULD
BE AT LEAST BE ENUF INSTAB/MOISTURE NEAR THE UPR TROUGH AXIS ITSELF
FOR NUMEROUS SHWRS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK COLD ENUF FOR AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NGT INTO SAT...TRENDING MORE TWDS SHSN LTR SAT
INTO EARLY SUN.

WE SHOULD DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPR TROUGH LIFTS AWAY
INTO THE N ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUE UPDATE... VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE TIL LTR THIS EVE...WHEN A
BAND OF -SHRA PROGRESSES THROUGH THE RGN. AT LEAST PERIODIC MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL WITH THESE SHWRS AREA-WIDE.

SHWRS SHOULD BE OUT OF ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT PERHAPS KAVP...PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AT THAT POINT...AT LEAST
FOR A TIME. AT KAVP...SHWRS MAY LINGER TIL 12-14Z...BEFORE EXITING
TO THE E.

FROM LATE MRNG WED (ABT 15Z) ONWARD...A SC CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER CNY...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL (HIGHEST PROBABILITY
OF RESTRICTIVE CONDS AT KRME AND KSYR). ACRS NE PA (KAVP
VICINITY)...THIS CLOUD FIELD MAY BE LESS PREVALENT...WITH VFR
LIKELY TO CONTINUE.

S TO SW SFC WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTN...BEFORE
DIMINISHING TNT. WRLY SFC WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KT ON WED.


OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...THU...AND INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 281800
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS...SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS...TO
OUR REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOL AIR PUSH WILL
ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL AID A
COLD/DRY AIR PUSH MOVING INTO MI ATTM. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO NY/PA THIS EVENING, SOME WITH
GUSTY WINDS.

LOCAL INTERNAL STUDIES SHOW THAT VERY HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENTS SUCH
AS THESE CAN OFTEN PRODUCE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. TODAY, WE ARE
FORECASTING 0-6KM SHEAR OF 45 KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS ALONG
THE FRONT.

THIS AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SOMETIMES SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AT ML CAPES UNDER 500 J/KG. IN THIS
CASE, HOWEVER, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ML CAPES NEAR ZERO, TO AT
MOST 50-100 J/KG. THAT MIGHT BE TOO LOW, EVEN IN THIS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.

WILL STICK TO SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEFORE 4Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FAR SE FA TOWARD
DAYBREAK. MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS HERE THROUGH
MIDDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWS DOWN. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL
BE DRY WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR AROUND
MIDDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL CAA WITH MAXES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER BRINGING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS T85
DROPS TO -2C. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO
WARM FOR SNOW SHOWERS. REST OF AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
MINS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY...COOL WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. COOL AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ALONG WITH SECONDARY TROF WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY RESIDE OVER THE REGION AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A DRY BUT COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM TUE UPDATE... THE MAIN SYSTEM THIS PD CONTS TO BE THE DEEP
UPR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ERN STATES FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM...GIVEN THE OVERALL PATN...POSITIONING REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN ATTM. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS/EC RUNS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR FA...AGAIN IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS RATHER WIDE.

GIVEN ABV REASONING...WE`LL KEEP CHC POPS BOTH FRI NGT AND SAT
NGT...WITH POPS NOW INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ON SAT...AS THERE SHOULD
BE AT LEAST BE ENUF INSTAB/MOISTURE NEAR THE UPR TROUGH AXIS ITSELF
FOR NUMEROUS SHWRS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK COLD ENUF FOR AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NGT INTO SAT...TRENDING MORE TWDS SHSN LTR SAT
INTO EARLY SUN.

WE SHOULD DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPR TROUGH LIFTS AWAY
INTO THE N ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUE UPDATE... VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE TIL LTR THIS EVE...WHEN A
BAND OF -SHRA PROGRESSES THROUGH THE RGN. AT LEAST PERIODIC MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL WITH THESE SHWRS AREA-WIDE.

SHWRS SHOULD BE OUT OF ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT PERHAPS KAVP...PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AT THAT POINT...AT LEAST
FOR A TIME. AT KAVP...SHWRS MAY LINGER TIL 12-14Z...BEFORE EXITING
TO THE E.

FROM LATE MRNG WED (ABT 15Z) ONWARD...A SC CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER CNY...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL (HIGHEST PROBABILITY
OF RESTRICTIVE CONDS AT KRME AND KSYR). ACRS NE PA (KAVP
VICINITY)...THIS CLOUD FIELD MAY BE LESS PREVALENT...WITH VFR
LIKELY TO CONTINUE.

S TO SW SFC WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTN...BEFORE
DIMINISHING TNT. WRLY SFC WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KT ON WED.


OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...THU...AND INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 281754
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
154 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS...SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS...TO
OUR REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOL AIR PUSH WILL
ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL AID A
COLD/DRY AIR PUSH MOVING INTO MI ATTM. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO NY/PA THIS EVENING, SOME WITH
GUSTY WINDS.

LOCAL INTERNAL STUDIES SHOW THAT VERY HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENTS SUCH
AS THESE CAN OFTEN PRODUCE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. TODAY, WE ARE
FORECASTING 0-6KM SHEAR OF 45 KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS ALONG
THE FRONT.

THIS AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SOMETIMES SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AT ML CAPES UNDER 500 J/KG. IN THIS
CASE, HOWEVER, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ML CAPES NEAR ZERO, TO AT
MOST 50-100 J/KG. THAT MIGHT BE TOO LOW, EVEN IN THIS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.

WILL STICK TO SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEFORE 4Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FAR SE FA TOWARD
DAYBREAK. MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS HERE THROUGH
MIDDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWS DOWN. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL
BE DRY WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR AROUND
MIDDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL CAA WITH MAXES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER BRINGING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS T85
DROPS TO -2C. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO
WARM FOR SNOW SHOWERS. REST OF AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
MINS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY...COOL WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. COOL AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ALONG WITH SECONDARY TROF WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY RESIDE OVER THE REGION AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A DRY BUT COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS. SNOW STILL LOOKS TO
BE IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
2 PM MON UPDATE... THE SAME GENERAL IDEA IS SEEN FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS THE LAST FEW DAYS...IN THAT A FAIRLY DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH
SHOULD DIG INTO THE NERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO
THE NE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN SOME MODEL TO
MODEL...AND SOLN TO SOLN DIFFS...IN JUST HOW AMPLIFIED AND/OR
CLOSED OFF THIS TROUGH BECOMES. IN ANY CASE...MUCH COLDER
UNSETTLED WX LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FROM LTR FRI THROUGH
SAT...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS TAKE HOLD SUN-MON.

WE`VE BEEN ADVERTISING THE PSBLTY OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...OR
SIMPLY JUST SNOW SHWRS OVER AT LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND...FOR
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WE`LL CONTINUE THIS THEME...AS TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S SAT...WITH READINGS
DOWN INTO THE 20S SAT NGT. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW THE
EARLIER MENTIONED UPR TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCD SFC LOW EVOLVE...WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR FIRST SHOT OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR SOME
LOCALES...SPCLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE FCSTS IN
THIS REGARD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUE UPDATE... VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE TIL LTR THIS EVE...WHEN A
BAND OF -SHRA PROGRESSES THROUGH THE RGN. AT LEAST PERIODIC MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL WITH THESE SHWRS AREA-WIDE.

SHWRS SHOULD BE OUT OF ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT PERHAPS KAVP...PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AT THAT POINT...AT LEAST
FOR A TIME. AT KAVP...SHWRS MAY LINGER TIL 12-14Z...BEFORE EXITING
TO THE E.

FROM LATE MRNG WED (ABT 15Z) ONWARD...A SC CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER CNY...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL (HIGHEST PROBABILITY
OF RESTRICTIVE CONDS AT KRME AND KSYR). ACRS NE PA (KAVP
VICINITY)...THIS CLOUD FIELD MAY BE LESS PREVALENT...WITH VFR
LIKELY TO CONTINUE.

S TO SW SFC WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTN...BEFORE
DIMINISHING TNT. WRLY SFC WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KT ON WED.


OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...THU...AND INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 281714
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
114 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, FROM THE
FINGER LAKES REGION ACROSS THE SYRACUSE AREA TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. COOLER BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1020 AM UPDATE...THE BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER IS JUST NOW
APPROACHING THE NY/PA BORDER. WITH THIS GRID UPDATE, I INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND COMPRESSED THE NEAR
TERM TEMPERATURE CHANGES.

ONCE WE BREAK OUT, THE VERY WARM 925MB TEMPS WILL MAKE THE WARM UP
QUITE DRAMATIC. STILL FORECASTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

625 AM UPDATE...WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NORTH A LITTLE
FASTER THAN EXPECTED. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS WITH DRY
WEATHER NOW LIKELY BY SUNRISE OVER THE NRN CWA.

AT 415 AM...LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN CWA. ONLY SPRINKLES ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE SFC SO FAR DUE
TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FORCED BY A WEAK WARM FRONT WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID MORNING. WILL ONLY MENTION
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN CWA UNTIL MID MORNING DUE TO
WEAK FRONTAL FORCING AND FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ALONG WITH
T85 IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. A MILD DAY BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING.

AS THE SFC LOW IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
JAMES BAY THIS EVENING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS, JET DYNAMICS AND FRONTAL FORCING
WOULD SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION BUT INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH
MODELS ONLY INDICATING 200 J/KG IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLY
THIS EVENING. IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH WRN NY/PA
EARLY THIS EVENING IT MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH CENTRAL NEW YORK FROM I81 WEST. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE AS
THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FAR SE FA TOWARD
DAYBREAK. MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS HERE THROUGH
MIDDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWS DOWN. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL
BE DRY WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR AROUND
MIDDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL CAA WITH MAXES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER BRINGING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS T85
DROPS TO -2C. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO
WARM FOR SNOW SHOWERS. REST OF AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
MINS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY...COOL WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. COOL AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ALONG WITH SECONDARY TROF WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY RESIDE OVER THE REGION AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A DRY BUT COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS. SNOW STILL LOOKS TO
BE IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
2 PM MON UPDATE... THE SAME GENERAL IDEA IS SEEN FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS THE LAST FEW DAYS...IN THAT A FAIRLY DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH
SHOULD DIG INTO THE NERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO
THE NE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN SOME MODEL TO
MODEL...AND SOLN TO SOLN DIFFS...IN JUST HOW AMPLIFIED AND/OR
CLOSED OFF THIS TROUGH BECOMES. IN ANY CASE...MUCH COLDER
UNSETTLED WX LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FROM LTR FRI THROUGH
SAT...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS TAKE HOLD SUN-MON.

WE`VE BEEN ADVERTISING THE PSBLTY OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...OR
SIMPLY JUST SNOW SHWRS OVER AT LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND...FOR
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WE`LL CONTINUE THIS THEME...AS TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S SAT...WITH READINGS
DOWN INTO THE 20S SAT NGT. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW THE
EARLIER MENTIONED UPR TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCD SFC LOW EVOLVE...WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR FIRST SHOT OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR SOME
LOCALES...SPCLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE FCSTS IN
THIS REGARD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z TUE UPDATE... VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE TIL LTR THIS EVE...WHEN A
BAND OF -SHRA PROGRESSES THROUGH THE RGN. AT LEAST PERIODIC MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL WITH THESE SHWRS AREA-WIDE.

SHWRS SHOULD BE OUT OF ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT PERHAPS KAVP...PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AT THAT POINT...AT LEAST
FOR A TIME. AT KAVP...SHWRS MAY LINGER TIL 12-14Z...BEFORE EXITING
TO THE E.

FROM LATE MRNG WED (ABT 15Z) ONWARD...A SC CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER CNY...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL (HIGHEST PROBABILITY
OF RESTRICTIVE CONDS AT KRME AND KSYR). ACRS NE PA (KAVP
VICINITY)...THIS CLOUD FIELD MAY BE LESS PREVALENT...WITH VFR
LIKELY TO CONTINUE.

S TO SW SFC WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTN...BEFORE
DIMINISHING TNT. WRLY SFC WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KT ON WED.


OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...THU...AND INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 281421
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1021 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, FROM THE
FINGER LAKES REGION ACROSS THE SYRACUSE AREA TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. COOLER BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1020 AM UPDATE...THE BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER IS JUST NOW
APPROACHING THE NY/PA BORDER. WITH THIS GRID UPDATE, I INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND COMPRESSED THE NEAR
TERM TEMPERATURE CHANGES.

ONCE WE BREAK OUT, THE VERY WARM 925MB TEMPS WILL MAKE THE WARM UP
QUITE DRAMATIC. STILL FORECASTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

625 AM UPDATE...WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NORTH A LITTLE
FASTER THAN EXPECTED. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS WITH DRY
WEATHER NOW LIKELY BY SUNRISE OVER THE NRN CWA.

AT 415 AM...LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN CWA. ONLY SPRINKLES ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE SFC SO FAR DUE
TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FORCED BY A WEAK WARM FRONT WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID MORNING. WILL ONLY MENTION
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN CWA UNTIL MID MORNING DUE TO
WEAK FRONTAL FORCING AND FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ALONG WITH
T85 IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. A MILD DAY BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING.

AS THE SFC LOW IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
JAMES BAY THIS EVENING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS, JET DYNAMICS AND FRONTAL FORCING
WOULD SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION BUT INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH
MODELS ONLY INDICATING 200 J/KG IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLY
THIS EVENING. IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH WRN NY/PA
EARLY THIS EVENING IT MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH CENTRAL NEW YORK FROM I81 WEST. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE AS
THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FAR SE FA TOWARD
DAYBREAK. MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS HERE THROUGH
MIDDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWS DOWN. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL
BE DRY WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR AROUND
MIDDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL CAA WITH MAXES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER BRINGING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS T85
DROPS TO -2C. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO
WARM FOR SNOW SHOWERS. REST OF AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
MINS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY...COOL WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. COOL AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ALONG WITH SECONDARY TROF WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY RESIDE OVER THE REGION AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A DRY BUT COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS. SNOW STILL LOOKS TO
BE IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
2 PM MON UPDATE... THE SAME GENERAL IDEA IS SEEN FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS THE LAST FEW DAYS...IN THAT A FAIRLY DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH
SHOULD DIG INTO THE NERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO
THE NE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN SOME MODEL TO
MODEL...AND SOLN TO SOLN DIFFS...IN JUST HOW AMPLIFIED AND/OR
CLOSED OFF THIS TROUGH BECOMES. IN ANY CASE...MUCH COLDER
UNSETTLED WX LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FROM LTR FRI THROUGH
SAT...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS TAKE HOLD SUN-MON.

WE`VE BEEN ADVERTISING THE PSBLTY OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...OR
SIMPLY JUST SNOW SHWRS OVER AT LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND...FOR
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WE`LL CONTINUE THIS THEME...AS TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S SAT...WITH READINGS
DOWN INTO THE 20S SAT NGT. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW THE
EARLIER MENTIONED UPR TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCD SFC LOW EVOLVE...WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR FIRST SHOT OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR SOME
LOCALES...SPCLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE FCSTS IN
THIS REGARD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HAVE PRETTY MUCH MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR VISBYS AND CIGS THROUGH 00Z TODAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH 00Z TODAY. AFTER 00Z... A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS NY AND PA AND GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG... GUSTY
WINDS APPEAR THE BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. DECIDED TO
MENTION TSRA AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KAVP. FOR THE MOST PART...
ALL ACTIVITY WILL BE VFR. THERE MAY BE AN EMBEDDED MVFR CEILING
WITH THESE SHOWERS BUT DECIDED TO KEEP OUT ATTM DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT... BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL...SPCLY IN THE MRNG. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AT AVP.

THU INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 281041
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, FROM THE
FINGER LAKES REGION ACROSS THE SYRACUSE AREA TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. COOLER BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
625 AM UPDATE...WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NORTH A LITTLE
FASTER THAN EXPECTED. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS WITH DRY
WEATHER NOW LIKELY BY SUNRISE OVER THE NRN CWA.

AT 415 AM...LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN CWA. ONLY SPRINKLES ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE SFC SO FAR DUE
TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FORCED BY A WEAK WARM FRONT WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID MORNING. WILL ONLY MENTION
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN CWA UNTIL MID MORNING DUE TO
WEAK FRONTAL FORCING AND FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ALONG WITH
T85 IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. A MILD DAY BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING.

AS THE SFC LOW IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
JAMES BAY THIS EVENING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS, JET DYNAMICS AND FRONTAL FORCING
WOULD SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION BUT INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH
MODELS ONLY INDICATING 200 J/KG IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLY
THIS EVENING. IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH WRN NY/PA
EARLY THIS EVENING IT MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH CENTRAL NEW YORK FROM I81 WEST. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE AS
THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FAR SE FA TOWARD
DAYBREAK. MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS HERE THROUGH
MIDDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWS DOWN. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL
BE DRY WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR AROUND
MIDDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL CAA WITH MAXES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER BRINGING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS T85
DROPS TO -2C. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO
WARM FOR SNOW SHOWERS. REST OF AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
MINS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY...COOL WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. COOL AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ALONG WITH SECONDARY TROF WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY RESIDE OVER THE REGION AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A DRY BUT COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS. SNOW STILL LOOKS TO
BE IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
2 PM MON UPDATE... THE SAME GENERAL IDEA IS SEEN FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS THE LAST FEW DAYS...IN THAT A FAIRLY DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH
SHOULD DIG INTO THE NERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO
THE NE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN SOME MODEL TO
MODEL...AND SOLN TO SOLN DIFFS...IN JUST HOW AMPLIFIED AND/OR
CLOSED OFF THIS TROUGH BECOMES. IN ANY CASE...MUCH COLDER
UNSETTLED WX LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FROM LTR FRI THROUGH
SAT...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS TAKE HOLD SUN-MON.

WE`VE BEEN ADVERTISING THE PSBLTY OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...OR
SIMPLY JUST SNOW SHWRS OVER AT LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND...FOR
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WE`LL CONTINUE THIS THEME...AS TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S SAT...WITH READINGS
DOWN INTO THE 20S SAT NGT. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW THE
EARLIER MENTIONED UPR TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCD SFC LOW EVOLVE...WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR FIRST SHOT OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR SOME
LOCALES...SPCLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE FCSTS IN
THIS REGARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HAVE PRETTY MUCH MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR VISBYS AND CIGS THROUGH 00Z TODAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH 00Z TODAY. AFTER 00Z... A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS NY AND PA AND GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG... GUSTY
WINDS APPEAR THE BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. DECIDED TO
MENTION TSRA AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KAVP. FOR THE MOST PART...
ALL ACTIVITY WILL BE VFR. THERE MAY BE AN EMBEDDED MVFR CEILING
WITH THESE SHOWERS BUT DECIDED TO KEEP OUT ATTM DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT... BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL...SPCLY IN THE MRNG. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AT AVP.

THU INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 281029
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
629 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, FROM THE
FINGER LAKES REGION ACROSS THE SYRACUSE AREA TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. COOLER BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 415 AM...LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN CWA. ONLY SPRINKLES ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE SFC SO FAR DUE
TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FORCED BY A WEAK WARM FRONT WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID MORNING. WILL ONLY MENTION
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN CWA UNTIL MID MORNING DUE TO
WEAK FRONTAL FORCING AND FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ALONG WITH
T85 IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. A MILD DAY BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING.

AS THE SFC LOW IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
JAMES BAY THIS EVENING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS, JET DYNAMICS AND FRONTAL FORCING
WOULD SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION BUT INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH
MODELS ONLY INDICATING 200 J/KG IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLY
THIS EVENING. IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH WRN NY/PA
EARLY THIS EVENING IT MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH CENTRAL NEW YORK FROM I81 WEST. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE AS
THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FAR SE FA TOWARD
DAYBREAK. MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS HERE THROUGH
MIDDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWS DOWN. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL
BE DRY WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR AROUND
MIDDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL CAA WITH MAXES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER BRINGING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS T85
DROPS TO -2C. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO
WARM FOR SNOW SHOWERS. REST OF AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
MINS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY...COOL WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. COOL AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ALONG WITH SECONDARY TROF WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY RESIDE OVER THE REGION AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A DRY BUT COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS. SNOW STILL LOOKS TO
BE IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
2 PM MON UPDATE... THE SAME GENERAL IDEA IS SEEN FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS THE LAST FEW DAYS...IN THAT A FAIRLY DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH
SHOULD DIG INTO THE NERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO
THE NE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN SOME MODEL TO
MODEL...AND SOLN TO SOLN DIFFS...IN JUST HOW AMPLIFIED AND/OR
CLOSED OFF THIS TROUGH BECOMES. IN ANY CASE...MUCH COLDER
UNSETTLED WX LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FROM LTR FRI THROUGH
SAT...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS TAKE HOLD SUN-MON.

WE`VE BEEN ADVERTISING THE PSBLTY OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...OR
SIMPLY JUST SNOW SHWRS OVER AT LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND...FOR
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WE`LL CONTINUE THIS THEME...AS TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S SAT...WITH READINGS
DOWN INTO THE 20S SAT NGT. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW THE
EARLIER MENTIONED UPR TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCD SFC LOW EVOLVE...WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR FIRST SHOT OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR SOME
LOCALES...SPCLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE FCSTS IN
THIS REGARD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HAVE PRETTY MUCH MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR VISBYS AND CIGS THROUGH 00Z TODAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH 00Z TODAY. AFTER 00Z... A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS NY AND PA AND GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG... GUSTY
WINDS APPEAR THE BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. DECIDED TO
MENTION TSRA AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KAVP. FOR THE MOST PART...
ALL ACTIVITY WILL BE VFR. THERE MAY BE AN EMBEDDED MVFR CEILING
WITH THESE SHOWERS BUT DECIDED TO KEEP OUT ATTM DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT... BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL...SPCLY IN THE MRNG. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AT AVP.

THU INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...KAH










000
FXUS61 KBGM 280835
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
435 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, FROM THE
FINGER LAKES REGION ACROSS THE SYRACUSE AREA TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. COOLER BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 415 AM...LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN CWA. ONLY SPRINKLES ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE SFC SO FAR DUE
TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FORCED BY A WEAK WARM FRONT WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID MORNING. WILL ONLY MENTION
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN CWA UNTIL MID MORNING DUE TO
WEAK FRONTAL FORCING AND FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ALONG WITH
T85 IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. A MILD DAY BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING.

AS THE SFC LOW IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
JAMES BAY THIS EVENING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS, JET DYNAMICS AND FRONTAL FORCING
WOULD SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION BUT INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH
MODELS ONLY INDICATING 200 J/KG IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLY
THIS EVENING. IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH WRN NY/PA
EARLY THIS EVENING IT MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH CENTRAL NEW YORK FROM I81 WEST. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE AS
THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FAR SE FA TOWARD
DAYBREAK. MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS HERE THROUGH
MIDDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWS DOWN. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL
BE DRY WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR AROUND
MIDDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL CAA WITH MAXES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER BRINGING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS T85
DROPS TO -2C. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO
WARM FOR SNOW SHOWERS. REST OF AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
MINS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY...COOL WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. COOL AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ALONG WITH SECONDARY TROF WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY RESIDE OVER THE REGION AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A DRY BUT COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS. SNOW STILL LOOKS TO
BE IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
2 PM MON UPDATE... THE SAME GENERAL IDEA IS SEEN FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS THE LAST FEW DAYS...IN THAT A FAIRLY DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH
SHOULD DIG INTO THE NERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO
THE NE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN SOME MODEL TO
MODEL...AND SOLN TO SOLN DIFFS...IN JUST HOW AMPLIFIED AND/OR
CLOSED OFF THIS TROUGH BECOMES. IN ANY CASE...MUCH COLDER
UNSETTLED WX LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FROM LTR FRI THROUGH
SAT...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS TAKE HOLD SUN-MON.

WE`VE BEEN ADVERTISING THE PSBLTY OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...OR
SIMPLY JUST SNOW SHWRS OVER AT LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND...FOR
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WE`LL CONTINUE THIS THEME...AS TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S SAT...WITH READINGS
DOWN INTO THE 20S SAT NGT. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW THE
EARLIER MENTIONED UPR TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCD SFC LOW EVOLVE...WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR FIRST SHOT OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR SOME
LOCALES...SPCLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE FCSTS IN
THIS REGARD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT CHANCES ARE SO LOW... SO DECIDED TO KEEP OUT OF
TAFS AND WILL AMD IF NECESSARY. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE VFR. WINDS
WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AROUND 12KTS OR LESS. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AT KITH... KSYR... AND KELM
AROUND 00Z WED... THUS MENTIONED TSRA IN TAF. GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL...SPCLY IN THE MRNG. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AT AVP.

THU INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...KAH









000
FXUS61 KBGM 280827
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
427 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, FROM THE
FINGER LAKES REGION ACROSS THE SYRACUSE AREA TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. COOLER BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 415 AM...LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN CWA. ONLY SPRINKLES ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE SFC SO FAR DUE
TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FORCED BY A WEAK WARM FRONT WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID MORNING. WILL ONLY MENTION
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN CWA UNTIL MID MORNING DUE TO
WEAK FRONTAL FORCING AND FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ALONG WITH
T85 IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. A MILD DAY BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING.

AS THE SFC LOW IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
JAMES BAY THIS EVENING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS, JET DYNAMICS AND FRONTAL FORCING
WOULD SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION BUT INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH
MODELS ONLY INDICATING 200 J/KG IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLY
THIS EVENING. IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH WRN NY/PA
EARLY THIS EVENING IT MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH CENTRAL NEW YORK FROM I81 WEST. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE AS
THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FAR SE FA TOWARD
DAYBREAK. MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS HERE THROUGH
MIDDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWS DOWN. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL
BE DRY WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR AROUND
MIDDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL CAA WITH MAXES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER BRINGING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS T85
DROPS TO -2C. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO
WARM FOR SNOW SHOWERS. REST OF AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
MINS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY...COOL WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. COOL AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ALONG WITH SECONDARY TROF WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY RESIDE OVER THE REGION AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A DRY BUT COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM MON UPDATE... THE SAME GENERAL IDEA IS SEEN FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS THE LAST FEW DAYS...IN THAT A FAIRLY DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH
SHOULD DIG INTO THE NERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO
THE NE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN SOME MODEL TO
MODEL...AND SOLN TO SOLN DIFFS...IN JUST HOW AMPLIFIED AND/OR
CLOSED OFF THIS TROUGH BECOMES. IN ANY CASE...MUCH COLDER
UNSETTLED WX LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FROM LTR FRI THROUGH
SAT...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS TAKE HOLD SUN-MON.

WE`VE BEEN ADVERTISING THE PSBLTY OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...OR
SIMPLY JUST SNOW SHWRS OVER AT LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND...FOR
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WE`LL CONTINUE THIS THEME...AS TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S SAT...WITH READINGS
DOWN INTO THE 20S SAT NGT. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW THE
EARLIER MENTIONED UPR TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCD SFC LOW EVOLVE...WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR FIRST SHOT OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR SOME
LOCALES...SPCLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE FCSTS IN
THIS REGARD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT CHANCES ARE SO LOW... SO DECIDED TO KEEP OUT OF
TAFS AND WILL AMD IF NECESSARY. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE VFR. WINDS
WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AROUND 12KTS OR LESS. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AT KITH... KSYR... AND KELM
AROUND 00Z WED... THUS MENTIONED TSRA IN TAF. GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL...SPCLY IN THE MRNG. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AT AVP.

THU INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH








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