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000
FXUS61 KBGM 250823
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
423 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL INITIALLY KEEP THINGS DRY AND MILD
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
NORTH OF THE TWIN TIERS. BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND
COOLER SUNDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK. DRY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER PASSING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING /MAINLY NORTH/ ON AN
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND IT IS NOT EXACTLY THE CLEANEST CONSIDERING THE
MOISTURE THAT IS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. A LAYER OF CLOUDS AT 4-6 KFT AGL
THROUGHOUT W NY/NW PA IS NOW SPREADING EAST INCLUDING SYRACUSE TO
PENN YAN SO FAR...EN ROUTE TO MOST OF OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING
THOSE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. SO PERHAPS MORE
CLOUDS THAN ORIGINALLY FIGURED FOR TODAY...YET WITH WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE BRINGING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING TROUGH
/WITH GUSTS INTO 15-25 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/...WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN MIXING IN AS WELL DURING THE DAY AS WE GET BRIEFLY
INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL REALIZE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

MODELS ARE WELL AGREED ON PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THEN PASSING THROUGH
FROM 4PM WNW TO 9PM ENE. IT WILL DO SO WITH LIMITED SHALLOW
MOISTURE...AND THUS GAPPY LIGHT SHOWERS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE IN CENTRAL NY WITH AID OF LAKE MOISTURE AND STRONGER
DYNAMICS. IN FACT...MODEL SOUNDINGS /NAM IN PARTICULAR/ SHOW
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AND THERE HAVE ALREADY ACTUALLY BEEN
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT IN FAR WESTERN ONTARIO
/NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR/. THUS I ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO
ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY. IN THE TWIN
TIERS...SHOWERS WILL BE HIT-OR-MISS SCATTERED...SPRINKLES MAY BE
THE MORE APPROPRIATE TERM. SOUTHERN REACHES OF OUR AREA INCLUDING
THE WYOMING VALLEY PA MAY GET NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL FROM THIS
SYSTEM.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VORTICITY LOBE ROUNDS THE TRANSIENT UPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH QUEBEC...AND WHAT CAN BE CONSIDERED THE REAL COLD FRONT
WILL QUICKLY BLAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
RESULTING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS 850MB TEMPERATURES OVERTAKING OUR
AREA 06Z-12Z SUNDAY. AND WITH THAT...THE INTRODUCTION OF LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NY THRUWAY
CORRIDOR...NORTHWESTERN CATSKILLS...AND MOHAWK VALLEY-TUG HILL
PLATEAU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
COOL BLUSTERY DAY SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS...THEN QUIET MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED WELL THROUGH THE AREA BY DAWN SUNDAY.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY SUBZERO SUNDAY...MEANWHILE
LAKE ONTARIO WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL 12-14 CELSIUS. THIS COLD
AIR ALOFT WITH STOUT WNW FLOW OFF OF LAKES HURON AND ONTARIO
SUNDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING LAKE-MODIFIED AIR MASS
MIXING TO AT LEAST 10 KFT AGL...WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO
YIELD CLOUDS LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND EXTENDING TO SOME OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...EVEN A
BIT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING. INDEED...THE 85OMB RIDGE DOES
NOT EVEN REACH US UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH...MOISTURE
WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...SO A GOOD
AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS FIGURED SUNDAY...THEN SOME DIMINISHING OF
IT SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A LOT OF MIXING
SUNDAY WILL YIELD 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
AND DRY WEATHER. THOUGH REMAINS OF LAKE STRATOCUMULUS WILL FALL
APART...HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT WARM FRONT WILL ALSO ALREADY BE
STREAMING IN OUT OF THE WEST. WE WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE...BUT HOW
WIDE THAT WINDOW OF IT WILL BE IS UNCERTAIN. THEN VERY MILD MONDAY
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT AND CLOUDS PASS OVERHEAD...THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
125 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM MVG IN
TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG. WHILE GFS HAS COME ON BOARD WITH EC
REGARDING TIMING OF FROPA LATE TUE NGT, LATEST CMC IS SLOWER AND
DOES NOT BRING FROPA THRU UNTIL WED MRNG. EITHER WAY, HV GONE WITH
WPC GUIDANCE FOR SYSTEM WITH CHC SHOWERS. NW FLOW WL FOLLOW SYSTEM
AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN CANADA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS UNTIL HIPRES BUILDS IN ON THUR.

TEMPS WL CLIMB WELL ABV NORMAL ON TUE AHD OF SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 70S DRG THE AFTN. CDFNT PASSAGE WL
QUICKLY DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES THRU THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SAT UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THIS PD
(THROUGH 06Z SUN). PSBL EXCEPTIONS ARE KRME AND KSYR...WHERE A
RELATIVELY BRIEF PD OF MVFR CIGS IS PSBL LTR THIS AFTN INTO THE
EVE HRS...AS A SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE RGN. SPOTTY -SHRA MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS WX FEATURE...BUT VSBY`S SHUD REMAIN AOA 6SM.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-15Z...SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF THE W OR
SW FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN PD (GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ARE LIKELY). WINDS
SHOULD VEER INTO THE NW LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVE.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL IN THE MRNG...SPCLY KSYR AND KRME.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

WED...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 250557
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
157 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL INITIALLY KEEP THINGS DRY AND MILD
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
NORTH OF THE TWIN TIERS. BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND
COOLER SUNDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK. DRY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER PASSING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 AM UPDATE...
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE NEAR TERM...ALBEIT OF LOW
IMPACT...WILL BE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING /MAINLY NORTH/ ON
AN OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND IT IS NOT EXACTLY THE CLEANEST CONSIDERING THE
MOISTURE THAT IS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. THERE IS A LAYER OF CLOUDS AT 4-6
KFT AGL THROUGHOUT W NY/NW PA. THOSE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-81 AND ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM FRONT. SO PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN ORIGINALLY FIGURED FOR
TODAY...YET WITH MIXING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
TROUGH /WITH GUSTS INTO 15-25 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/...WE SHOULD
STILL SEE A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN DURING THE DAY AS WE GET
BRIEFLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL REALIZE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

MODELS ARE WELL AGREED ON PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THEN PASSING THROUGH
FROM 4PM WNW TO 9PM ENE. IT WILL DO SO WITH LIMITED SHALLOW
MOISTURE...AND THUS GAPPY LIGHT SHOWERS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE IN CENTRAL NY WITH AID OF LAKE MOISTURE AND STRONGER
DYNAMICS. IN THE TWIN TIERS...SHOWERS WILL BE HIT-OR-MISS
SCATTERED. SOUTHERN REACHES OF OUR AREA INCLUDING THE WYOMING
VALLEY PA MAY GET NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL FROM THIS SYSTEM.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VORTICITY LOBE ROUNDS THE TRANSIENT UPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH QUEBEC...AND WHAT CAN BE CONSIDERED THE REAL COLD FRONT
WILL QUICKLY BLAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
RESULTING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS 850MB TEMPERATURES OVERTAKING OUR
AREA 06Z-12Z SUNDAY. AND WITH THAT...THE INTRODUCTION OF LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NY THRUWAY
CORRIDOR...NORTHWESTERN CATSKILLS...AND MOHAWK VALLEY-TUG HILL
PLATEAU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
225 PM EDT UPDATE...
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY POST FRONTAL AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE MSLP INCREASES ACROSS THE CWA.
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY LASTING THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE FALL LIKE AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
125 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM MVG IN
TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG. WHILE GFS HAS COME ON BOARD WITH EC
REGARDING TIMING OF FROPA LATE TUE NGT, LATEST CMC IS SLOWER AND
DOES NOT BRING FROPA THRU UNTIL WED MRNG. EITHER WAY, HV GONE WITH
WPC GUIDANCE FOR SYSTEM WITH CHC SHOWERS. NW FLOW WL FOLLOW SYSTEM
AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN CANADA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS UNTIL HIPRES BUILDS IN ON THUR.

TEMPS WL CLIMB WELL ABV NORMAL ON TUE AHD OF SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 70S DRG THE AFTN. CDFNT PASSAGE WL
QUICKLY DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES THRU THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SAT UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THIS PD
(THROUGH 06Z SUN). PSBL EXCEPTIONS ARE KRME AND KSYR...WHERE A
RELATIVELY BRIEF PD OF MVFR CIGS IS PSBL LTR THIS AFTN INTO THE
EVE HRS...AS A SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE RGN. SPOTTY -SHRA MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS WX FEATURE...BUT VSBY`S SHUD REMAIN AOA 6SM.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-15Z...SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF THE W OR
SW FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN PD (GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ARE LIKELY). WINDS
SHOULD VEER INTO THE NW LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVE.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL IN THE MRNG...SPCLY KSYR AND KRME.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

WED...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ








000
FXUS61 KBGM 250537
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
137 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL INITIALLY KEEP THINGS DRY AND MILD
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
NORTH OF THE TWIN TIERS. BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND
COOLER SUNDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK. DRY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER PASSING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 AM UPDATE...
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE NEAR TERM...ALBEIT OF LOW
IMPACT...WILL BE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING /MAINLY NORTH/ ON
AN OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND IT IS NOT EXACTLY THE CLEANEST CONSIDERING THE
MOISTURE THAT IS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. THERE IS A LAYER OF CLOUDS AT 4-6
KFT AGL THROUGHOUT W NY/NW PA. THOSE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-81 AND ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM FRONT. SO PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN ORIGINALLY FIGURED FOR
TODAY...YET WITH MIXING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
TROUGH /WITH GUSTS INTO 15-25 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/...WE SHOULD
STILL SEE A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN DURING THE DAY AS WE GET
BRIEFLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL REALIZE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

MODELS ARE WELL AGREED ON PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THEN PASSING THROUGH
FROM 4PM WNW TO 9PM ENE. IT WILL DO SO WITH LIMITED SHALLOW
MOISTURE...AND THUS GAPPY LIGHT SHOWERS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE IN CENTRAL NY WITH AID OF LAKE MOISTURE AND STRONGER
DYNAMICS. IN THE TWIN TIERS...SHOWERS WILL BE HIT-OR-MISS
SCATTERED. SOUTHERN REACHES OF OUR AREA INCLUDING THE WYOMING
VALLEY PA MAY GET NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL FROM THIS SYSTEM.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VORTICITY LOBE ROUNDS THE TRANSIENT UPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH QUEBEC...AND WHAT CAN BE CONSIDERED THE REAL COLD FRONT
WILL QUICKLY BLAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
RESULTING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS 850MB TEMPERATURES OVERTAKING OUR
AREA 06Z-12Z SUNDAY. AND WITH THAT...THE INTRODUCTION OF LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NY THRUWAY
CORRIDOR...NORTHWESTERN CATSKILLS...AND MOHAWK VALLEY-TUG HILL
PLATEAU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
225 PM EDT UPDATE...
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY POST FRONTAL AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE MSLP INCREASES ACROSS THE CWA.
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY LASTING THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE FALL LIKE AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
125 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM MVG IN
TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG. WHILE GFS HAS COME ONBOARD WITH EC
REGARDING TIMING OF FROPA LATE TUE NGT, LATEST CMC IS SLOWER AND
DOES NOT BRING FROPA THRU UNTIL WED MRNG. EITHER WAY, HV GONE WITH
WPC GUIDANCE FOR SYSTEM WITH CHC SHOWERS. NW FLOW WL FOLLOW SYSTEM
AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN CANADA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS UNTIL HIPRES BUILDS IN ON THUR.

TEMPS WL CLIMB WELL ABV NORMAL ON TUE AHD OF SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 70S DRG THE AFTN. CDFNT PASSAGE WL
QUICKLY DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES THRU THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR XPCTD THRU THE TAF PD. RDG OVHD THIS EVE SHD KEEP KSKIES
MAINLY CLR OTR THAN SOME HI CLDS THRU LATE NGT. TWRD MRNG...WV MVG
THRU THE GREAT LAKES WILL DVLP A LWR CLD DECK...ESP OVER THE NY
SITES...BUT GNRLY SHD REMAIN IN THE VFR CAT. A FEW VERY LGT SHWRS
ARE PSBL AS THE WV PASSES...BUT NOT ENUF TO LWR CIGS OR RESTRICT
VSBYS. DRIER AIR BHD THE WV ARRIVES BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...DGM/PVF








000
FXUS61 KBGM 250252
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1052 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY. MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BRIEFLY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
7 AND 10 PM UPDATES...
JUST MINOR UPDATES THIS EVENING WITH NO PRECIPITATION. BROKEN HIGH
THIN CLOUDS HAVE NOT PREVENTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
QUICKLY. ALSO LIGHT TO CALM SURFACE WINDS WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.
BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT TO THE MIN TEMPS. SOME 30S ALREADY SO ADJUSTED
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES DOWN.

225 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE STACKED UPPR LVL LOW THAT HAVE CAUSED UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
DAYS HAVE FINALLY MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT IT NO LONGER IMPACTS
OUR WEATHER PATTERN. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TODAY NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WE WILL GO
INTO SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.

IT APPEARS THAT ALL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY SOME VIRGA IS LEFT. THE CLOUD COVERAGE HAVE ALSO
DISSIPATED MUCH QUICKER THAN EXPECTED WHICH ALSO HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA THAT HAVE SEEN LOTS OF SUNSHINE TO REBOUND QUITE
NICELY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
50S TO LOW 60S. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES BEFORE
SUNSET.

A VERY WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE... EXPECT THIS WAVE TO
JUST PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS... MAINLY CIRRUS. IT APPEARS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY THIS WILL BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY.

TONIGHT THE STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SINK SOUTH ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP US UNDER WEAK RIDING ALOFT ALLOWING SFC
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY AND PA. THE
EVENING WILL START OUT AS MOSTLY CLEAR AND BY SUNRISE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE WEST DUE TO THE ADVANCING
SYSTEM. SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE UPR 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
225 PM EDT UPDATE...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER... DUE TO A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING... EXPECT AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS TO REMAIN
DRY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
START TO IMPACT THE CWA BY EJECTING A VORTICITY MAX ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE AROUND THE FINGER LAKES REGION... WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY... AND THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU. THIS SYSTEM HAS
IMPRESSIVE UPPR LVL DYNAMICS BUT LACKS MOISTURE... THUS DO NOT
EXPECT HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY POST FRONTAL AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE MSLP INCREASES ACROSS THE CWA.

AFTER THE FIRST INITIAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA A SECONDARY
WAVE THEN WILL QUICKLY DROP AND FOLLOW IN IT`S WAKE. THIS MAY
CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SHORTLY AFTER THAT... LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
LASTING THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE FALL LIKE AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
125 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM MVG IN
TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG. WHILE GFS HAS COME ONBOARD WITH EC
REGARDING TIMING OF FROPA LATE TUE NGT, LATEST CMC IS SLOWER AND
DOES NOT BRING FROPA THRU UNTIL WED MRNG. EITHER WAY, HV GONE WITH
WPC GUIDANCE FOR SYSTEM WITH CHC SHOWERS. NW FLOW WL FOLLOW SYSTEM
AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN CANADA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS UNTIL HIPRES BUILDS IN ON THUR.

TEMPS WL CLIMB WELL ABV NORMAL ON TUE AHD OF SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 70S DRG THE AFTN. CDFNT PASSAGE WL
QUICKLY DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES THRU THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR XPCTD THRU THE TAF PD. RDG OVHD THIS EVE SHD KEEP KSKIES
MAINLY CLR OTR THAN SOME HI CLDS THRU LATE NGT. TWRD MRNG...WV MVG
THRU THE GREAT LAKES WILL DVLP A LWR CLD DECK...ESP OVER THE NY
SITES...BUT GNRLY SHD REMAIN IN THE VFR CAT. A FEW VERY LGT SHWRS
ARE PSBL AS THE WV PASSES...BUT NOT ENUF TO LWR CIGS OR RESTRICT
VSBYS. DRIER AIR BHD THE WV ARRIVES BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH/TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH/TAC
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...DGM/PVF








000
FXUS61 KBGM 242340
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
740 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY RESULTING IN
DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
225 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE STACKED UPPR LVL LOW THAT HAVE CAUSED UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
DAYS HAVE FINALLY MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT IT NO LONGER IMPACTS
OUR WEATHER PATTERN. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TODAY NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WE WILL GO
INTO SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.

IT APPEARS THAT ALL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY SOME VIRGA IS LEFT. THE CLOUD COVERAGE HAVE ALSO
DISSIPATED MUCH QUICKER THAN EXPECTED WHICH ALSO HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA THAT HAVE SEEN LOTS OF SUNSHINE TO REBOUND QUITE
NICELY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
50S TO LOW 60S. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES BEFORE
SUNSET.

A VERY WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE... EXPECT THIS WAVE TO
JUST PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS... MAINLY CIRRUS. IT APPEARS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY THIS WILL BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY.

TONIGHT THE STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SINK SOUTH ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP US UNDER WEAK RIDING ALOFT ALLOWING SFC
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY AND PA. THE
EVENING WILL START OUT AS MOSTLY CLEAR AND BY SUNRISE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE WEST DUE TO THE ADVANCING
SYSTEM. SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE UPR 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
225 PM EDT UPDATE...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER... DUE TO A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING... EXPECT AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS TO REMAIN
DRY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
START TO IMPACT THE CWA BY EJECTING A VORTICITY MAX ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE AROUND THE FINGER LAKES REGION... WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY... AND THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU. THIS SYSTEM HAS
IMPRESSIVE UPPR LVL DYNAMICS BUT LACKS MOISTURE... THUS DO NOT
EXPECT HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY POST FRONTAL AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE MSLP INCREASES ACROSS THE CWA.

AFTER THE FIRST INITIAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA A SECONDARY
WAVE THEN WILL QUICKLY DROP AND FOLLOW IN IT`S WAKE. THIS MAY
CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SHORTLY AFTER THAT... LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
LASTING THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE FALL LIKE AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
125 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM MVG IN
TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG. WHILE GFS HAS COME ONBOARD WITH EC
REGARDING TIMING OF FROPA LATE TUE NGT, LATEST CMC IS SLOWER AND
DOES NOT BRING FROPA THRU UNTIL WED MRNG. EITHER WAY, HV GONE WITH
WPC GUIDANCE FOR SYSTEM WITH CHC SHOWERS. NW FLOW WL FOLLOW SYSTEM
AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN CANADA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS UNTIL HIPRES BUILDS IN ON THUR.

TEMPS WL CLIMB WELL ABV NORMAL ON TUE AHD OF SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 70S DRG THE AFTN. CDFNT PASSAGE WL
QUICKLY DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES THRU THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR XPCTD THRU THE TAF PD. RDG OVHD THIS EVE SHD KEEP KSKIES
MAINLY CLR OTR THAN SOME HI CLDS THRU LATE NGT. TWRD MRNG...WV MVG
THRU THE GREAT LAKES WILL DVLP A LWR CLD DECK...ESP OVER THE NY
SITES...BUT GNRLY SHD REMAIN IN THE VFR CAT. A FEW VERY LGT SHWRS
ARE PSBL AS THE WV PASSES...BUT NOT ENUF TO LWR CIGS OR RESTRICT
VSBYS. DRIER AIR BHD THE WV ARRIVES BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...DGM/PVF








000
FXUS61 KBGM 241827
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
227 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY RESULTING IN
DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
225 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE STACKED UPPR LVL LOW THAT HAVE CAUSED UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
DAYS HAVE FINALLY MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT IT NO LONGER IMPACTS
OUR WEATHER PATTERN. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TODAY NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WE WILL GO
INTO SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.

IT APPEARS THAT ALL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY SOME VIRGA IS LEFT. THE CLOUD COVERAGE HAVE ALSO
DISSIPATED MUCH QUICKER THAN EXPECTED WHICH ALSO HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA THAT HAVE SEEN LOTS OF SUNSHINE TO REBOUND QUITE
NICELY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
50S TO LOW 60S. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES BEFORE
SUNSET.

A VERY WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE... EXPECT THIS WAVE TO
JUST PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS... MAINLY CIRRUS. IT APPEARS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY THIS WILL BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY.

TONIGHT THE STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SINK SOUTH ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP US UNDER WEAK RIDING ALOFT ALLOWING SFC
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY AND PA. THE
EVENING WILL START OUT AS MOSTLY CLEAR AND BY SUNRISE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE WEST DUE TO THE ADVANCING
SYSTEM. SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE UPR 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
225 PM EDT UPDATE...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER... DUE TO A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING... EXPECT AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS TO REMAIN
DRY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
START TO IMPACT THE CWA BY EJECTING A VORTICITY MAX ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE AROUND THE FINGER LAKES REGION... WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY... AND THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU. THIS SYSTEM HAS
IMPRESSIVE UPPR LVL DYNAMICS BUT LACKS MOISTURE... THUS DO NOT
EXPECT HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY POST FRONTAL AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE MSLP INCREASES ACROSS THE CWA.

AFTER THE FIRST INITIAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA A SECONDARY
WAVE THEN WILL QUICKLY DROP AND FOLLOW IN IT`S WAKE. THIS MAY
CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SHORTLY AFTER THAT... LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
LASTING THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE FALL LIKE AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
125 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM MVG IN
TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG. WHILE GFS HAS COME ONBOARD WITH EC
REGARDING TIMING OF FROPA LATE TUE NGT, LATEST CMC IS SLOWER AND
DOES NOT BRING FROPA THRU UNTIL WED MRNG. EITHER WAY, HV GONE WITH
WPC GUIDANCE FOR SYSTEM WITH CHC SHOWERS. NW FLOW WL FOLLOW SYSTEM
AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN CANADA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS UNTIL HIPRES BUILDS IN ON THUR.

TEMPS WL CLIMB WELL ABV NORMAL ON TUE AHD OF SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 70S DRG THE AFTN. CDFNT PASSAGE WL
QUICKLY DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES THRU THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
FEW-SCT VFR CLDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR TOWARD
00Z. NEXT AREA OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 07Z AHEAD OF NEXT
WAVE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT RME AND ITH WITH
ELM POSSIBLY DROPPING BRIEFLY TO IFR.

WINDS OUT OF THE NW 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS APPCHG 20KTS UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET. THEN BECOMING LGT OUT OF THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF










000
FXUS61 KBGM 241726
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
126 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EASTWARD TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR AND BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM EDT UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY ENDING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING
AND SOME SUNSHINE HAVE RETURNED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS. STILL
EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. RIDGING ALOFT IS
STARTING TO MOVE OVER WESTERN NY/PA AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST TODAY AS THE UPPR LOW THAT HAS PRODUCES RAIN LIFTS TO
THE NORTH. THUS... AFTER THE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING EXPECT TODAY
TO BE DRY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS NEXT S/WV
MOVS INTO THE CNTRL GTLAKES TDA. CLDS THIS MRNG WITH SOME -RA OR
DZ ACRS ERN ZONES. CLEARING XPCTD TO PROGRESS STEADILY BUT SLOWLY
EWD TDA. ATTM THINK THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLDS WILL BE NEAR THE RT
81 CORRIDOR IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. WRN CATSKILLS PRBLY WON`T SEE
BREAKS UNTIL LATE TDA. MAXES IN THE U50S TO NEAR 60 WRN ZONES
WHERE MORE SS WILL OCCUR...L50S ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SRN CATSKILLS
WHERE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST LONGEST. NW WINDS GNRLY 10-20 KTS.

WE`LL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TNGT BEFORE CLDS INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE NXT S/WV LATE TNGT DUE TO WAA AND WEAK ISEN
LIFT. MINS GNRLY FROM THE U30 TO L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VARYING AMTS OF CLDS ON SATURDAY DUE TO MRNG WAA...THEN SOME
IMPRVMNT PSBL IN THE AFTN BEFORE MORE CLDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY
AS THE CDFNT APRCHS. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE L60S ACRS MANY AREAS. CHC POPS LATE IN DAY FOR
-SHRA FROM STEUBEN INTO ONEIDA COUNTY...WITH CHC POPS MIGRATING
SEWD ON SAT EVNG TO COVER MUCH OF CNTRL NY. GOOD DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT ALOT OF MSTR. WEAK LAKE INFLUENCE COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER S/WV KEEPS CHC POPS ACRS FAR NRN ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO
SUN EVNG WHERE CLDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...WITH PC SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. BLUSTERY NW WINDS XPCTD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
125 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM MVG IN
TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG. WHILE GFS HAS COME ONBOARD WITH EC
REGARDING TIMING OF FROPA LATE TUE NGT, LATEST CMC IS SLOWER AND
DOES NOT BRING FROPA THRU UNTIL WED MRNG. EITHER WAY, HV GONE WITH
WPC GUIDANCE FOR SYSTEM WITH CHC SHOWERS. NW FLOW WL FOLLOW SYSTEM
AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN CANADA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS UNTIL HIPRES BUILDS IN ON THUR.

TEMPS WL CLIMB WELL ABV NORMAL ON TUE AHD OF SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 70S DRG THE AFTN. CDFNT PASSAGE WL
QUICKLY DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES THRU THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
FEW-SCT VFR CLDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR TOWARD
00Z. NEXT AREA OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 07Z AHEAD OF NEXT
WAVE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT RME AND ITH WITH
ELM POSSIBLY DROPPING BRIEFLY TO IFR.

WINDS OUT OF THE NW 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS APPCHG 20KTS UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET. THEN BECOMING LGT OUT OF THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF






000
FXUS61 KBGM 241305
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
905 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EASTWARD TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR AND BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM EDT UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY ENDING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING
AND SOME SUNSHINE HAVE RETURNED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS. STILL
EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. RIDGING ALOFT IS
STARTING TO MOVE OVER WESTERN NY/PA AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST TODAY AS THE UPPR LOW THAT HAS PRODUCES RAIN LIFTS TO
THE NORTH. THUS... AFTER THE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING EXPECT TODAY
TO BE DRY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLND CST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS NEXT S/WV
MOVS INTO THE CNTRL GTLAKES TDA. CLDS THIS MRNG WITH SOME -RA OR
DZ ACRS ERN ZONES. CLEARING XPCTD TO PROGRESS STEADILY BUT SLOWLY
EWD TDA. ATTM THINK THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLDS WILL BE NEAR THE RT
81 CORRIDOR IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. WRN CATSKILLS PRBLY WON`T SEE
BREAKS UNTIL LATE TDA. MAXES IN THE U50S TO NEAR 60 WRN ZONES
WHERE MORE SS WILL OCCUR...L50S ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SRN CATSKILLS
WHERE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST LONGEST. NW WINDS GNRLY 10-20 KTS.

WE`LL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TNGT BEFORE CLDS INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE NXT S/WV LATE TNGT DUE TO WAA AND WEAK ISEN
LIFT. MINS GNRLY FROM THE U30 TO L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VARYING AMTS OF CLDS ON SATURDAY DUE TO MRNG WAA...THEN SOME
IMPRVMNT PSBL IN THE AFTN BEFORE MORE CLDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY
AS THE CDFNT APRCHS. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE L60S ACRS MANY AREAS. CHC POPS LATE IN DAY FOR
-SHRA FROM STEUBEN INTO ONEIDA COUNTY...WITH CHC POPS MIGRATING
SEWD ON SAT EVNG TO COVER MUCH OF CNTRL NY. GOOD DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT ALOT OF MSTR. WEAK LAKE INFLUENCE COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER S/WV KEEPS CHC POPS ACRS FAR NRN ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO
SUN EVNG WHERE CLDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...WITH PC SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. BLUSTERY NW WINDS XPCTD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TOWARDS 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. TREND IN MODEL
CONSENSUS /WITH GFS FASTEST...ECMWF MIDDLE...AND GEM SLOWEST/ IS
FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE WITHIN THE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. POPS TWEAKED ACCORDINGLY. AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...AS ALREADY MENTIONED BELOW WE BRIEFLY GET QUITE
WARM...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY A GOOD DOZEN OR SO DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. A FEW LOWER ELEVATION SPOTS MAY EVEN TOUCH 70. BEHIND
THE FRONT...EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER THURSDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND QUICKLY
LOSING INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. AS EXPECTED CONDITIONS ACTUALLY
IMPROVED LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS DRIER AIR HAS BEEN MOVING IN AND
ERODING WHAT REMAINS OF CLOUD COVER ON OUTER PERIPHERY OF EXITING
SYSTEM. KAVP COULD STILL HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIG...OTHERWISE JOINING
THE OTHER TERMINALS IN A QUICK SCATTERING OUT THIS MORNING AS
VERY DRY AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKE OVER. NW WINDS 7-10 KTS
WITH GUSTS 15-19 KTS TODAY...WILL DIMINISHING AND BACKING INTO
TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF AN
MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL MANGE FORM TOWARDS DAWN UNDER SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION FOR SOME TERMINALS...ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE
VALLEY FOG AT KELM.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM.../KAH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP









000
FXUS61 KBGM 241037
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
637 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EASTWARD TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR AND BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLND CST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS NEXT S/WV
MOVS INTO THE CNTRL GTLAKES TDA. CLDS THIS MRNG WITH SOME -RA OR
DZ ACRS ERN ZONES. CLEARING XPCTD TO PROGRESS STEADILY BUT SLOWLY
EWD TDA. ATTM THINK THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLDS WILL BE NEAR THE RT
81 CORRIDOR IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. WRN CATSKILLS PRBLY WON`T SEE
BREAKS UNTIL LATE TDA. MAXES IN THE U50S TO NEAR 60 WRN ZONES
WHERE MORE SS WILL OCCUR...L50S ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SRN CATSKILLS
WHERE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST LONGEST. NW WINDS GNRLY 10-20 KTS.

WE`LL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TNGT BEFORE CLDS INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE NXT S/WV LATE TNGT DUE TO WAA AND WEAK ISEN
LIFT. MINS GNRLY FROM THE U30 TO L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VARYING AMTS OF CLDS ON SATURDAY DUE TO MRNG WAA...THEN SOME
IMPRVMNT PSBL IN THE AFTN BEFORE MORE CLDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY
AS THE CDFNT APRCHS. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE L60S ACRS MANY AREAS. CHC POPS LATE IN DAY FOR
-SHRA FROM STEUBEN INTO ONEIDA COUNTY...WITH CHC POPS MIGRATING
SEWD ON SAT EVNG TO COVER MUCH OF CNTRL NY. GOOD DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT ALOT OF MSTR. WEAK LAKE INFLUENCE COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER S/WV KEEPS CHC POPS ACRS FAR NRN ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO
SUN EVNG WHERE CLDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...WITH PC SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. BLUSTERY NW WINDS XPCTD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TOWARDS 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. TREND IN MODEL
CONSENSUS /WITH GFS FASTEST...ECMWF MIDDLE...AND GEM SLOWEST/ IS
FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE WITHIN THE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. POPS TWEAKED ACCORDINGLY. AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...AS ALREADY MENTIONED BELOW WE BRIEFLY GET QUITE
WARM...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY A GOOD DOZEN OR SO DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. A FEW LOWER ELEVATION SPOTS MAY EVEN TOUCH 70. BEHIND
THE FRONT...EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER THURSDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND QUICKLY
LOSING INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. AS EXPECTED CONDITIONS ACTUALLY
IMPROVED LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS DRIER AIR HAS BEEN MOVING IN AND
ERODING WHAT REMAINS OF CLOUD COVER ON OUTER PERIPHERY OF EXITING
SYSTEM. KAVP COULD STILL HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIG...OTHERWISE JOINING
THE OTHER TERMINALS IN A QUICK SCATTERING OUT THIS MORNING AS
VERY DRY AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKE OVER. NW WINDS 7-10 KTS
WITH GUSTS 15-19 KTS TODAY...WILL DIMINISHING AND BACKING INTO
TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF AN
MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL MANGE FORM TOWARDS DAWN UNDER SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION FOR SOME TERMINALS...ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE
VALLEY FOG AT KELM.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 240720
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EASTWARD TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR AND BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLND CST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS NEXT S/WV
MOVS INTO THE CNTRL GTLAKES TDA. CLDS THIS MRNG WITH SOME -RA OR
DZ ACRS ERN ZONES. CLEARING XPCTD TO PROGRESS STEADILY BUT SLOWLY
EWD TDA. ATTM THINK THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLDS WILL BE NEAR THE RT
81 CORRIDOR IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. WRN CATSKILLS PRBLY WON`T SEE
BREAKS UNTIL LATE TDA. MAXES IN THE U50S TO NEAR 60 WRN ZONES
WHERE MORE SS WILL OCCUR...L50S ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SRN CATSKILLS
WHERE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST LONGEST. NW WINDS GNRLY 10-20 KTS.

WE`LL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TNGT BEFORE CLDS INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE NXT S/WV LATE TNGT DUE TO WAA AND WEAK ISEN
LIFT. MINS GNRLY FROM THE U30 TO L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VARYING AMTS OF CLDS ON SATURDAY DUE TO MRNG WAA...THEN SOME
IMPRVMNT PSBL IN THE AFTN BEFORE MORE CLDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY
AS THE CDFNT APRCHS. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE L60S ACRS MANY AREAS. CHC POPS LATE IN DAY FOR
-SHRA FROM STEUBEN INTO ONEIDA COUNTY...WITH CHC POPS MIGRATING
SEWD ON SAT EVNG TO COVER MUCH OF CNTRL NY. GOOD DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT ALOT OF MSTR. WEAK LAKE INFLUENCE COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER S/WV KEEPS CHC POPS ACRS FAR NRN ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO
SUN EVNG WHERE CLDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...WITH PC SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. BLUSTERY NW WINDS XPCTD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TOWARDS 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. TREND IN MODEL
CONSENSUS /WITH GFS FASTEST...ECMWF MIDDLE...AND GEM SLOWEST/ IS
FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE WITHIN THE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. POPS TWEAKED ACCORDINGLY. AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...AS ALREADY MENTIONED BELOW WE BRIEFLY GET QUITE
WARM...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY A GOOD DOZEN OR SO DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. A FEW LOWER ELEVATION SPOTS MAY EVEN TOUCH 70. BEHIND
THE FRONT...EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER THURSDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW JUST EAST OF CAPE COD AND LOSING
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. WE ARE ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF CLOUD
COVER CURRENTLY...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS...BUT THOSE WILL ACTUALLY
IMPROVE BETWEEN 06Z-10Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND ERODES IT. BY
10Z KBGM-KITH SHOULD BE DONE WITH IFR...KAVP-KELM SHOULD BE ABOVE
FUEL ALT REQ LEVEL...AND KSYR-KRME CIG SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MVFR
TO VFR. REMAINDER OF CLOUDS WILL BE QUICK TO SCATTER OUT THIS
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE
TAKE OVER. NW WINDS 7-10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-19 KTS
/MAINLY DAYTIME/...WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 240704
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
304 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EASTWARD TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR AND BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLND CST WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS NEXT S/WV MOVS INTO THE CNTRL GTLAKES TDA.
CLDS THIS MRNG WITH SOME -RA OR DZ ACRS ERN ZONES. CLEARING XPCTD
TO PROGRESS STEADLILY BUT SLOWLY EWD TDA. ATTM THINK THE WRN EDGE
OF THE CLDS WILL BE NEAR THE RT 81 CORRIDOR IN THE 16-18Z TIME
FRAME. WRN CATKILLS PRBLY WON`T SEE BREAKS UNTIL LATE TDA. MAXES
IN THE U50S TO NEAR 60 WRN ZONES WHERE MORE SS WILL OCCUR...L50S
ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SRN CATSKILLS WHERE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
LONGEST. NW WINDS GNRLY 10-20 KTS.

WE`LL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TNGT BEFORE CLDS INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE NXT S/WV LATE TNGT DUE TO WAA AND WEAK ISEN
LIFT. MINS GNRLY FROM THE U30 TO L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
VARYING AMTS OF CLDS ON SATURDAY DUE TO MRNG WAA...THEN SOME
IMPRVMNT PSBL IN THE AFTN BEFORE MORE CLDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY
AS THE CDFNT APRCHS. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE L60S ACRS MANY AREAS. CHC POPS LATE IN DAY FOR
-SHRA FROM STEUBEN INTO ONEIDA COUNTY...WITH CHC POPS MIGRATING
SEWD ON SAT EVNG TO COVER MUCH OF CNTRL NY. GOOD DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT ALOT OF MSTR. WEAK LAKE INFLUENCE COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER S/WV KEEPS CHC POPS ACRS FAR NRN ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO
SUN EVNG WHERE CLDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...WITH PC SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. BLUSTERY NW WINDS XPCTD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
IT`S ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF NEW YORK. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FROPA...
HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. THIS IS DUE TO CAA AND THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE
RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED SHOWERS.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDDING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE NICE WEATHER MAY EXTEND FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK AS EACH GUIDANCE RUN HINTS THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL
PROPAGATE EAST SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW JUST EAST OF CAPE COD AND LOSING
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. WE ARE ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF CLOUD
COVER CURRENTLY...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS...BUT THOSE WILL ACTUALLY
IMPROVE BETWEEN 06Z-10Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND ERODES IT. BY
10Z KBGM-KITH SHOULD BE DONE WITH IFR...KAVP-KELM SHOULD BE ABOVE
FUEL ALT REQ LEVEL...AND KSYR-KRME CIG SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MVFR
TO VFR. REMAINDER OF CLOUDS WILL BE QUICK TO SCATTER OUT THIS
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE
TAKE OVER. NW WINDS 7-10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-19 KTS
/MAINLY DAYTIME/...WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 240556
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND COME TO AN END THIS MORNING.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S POP FORECAST LOOKS EXCELLENT AS CYCLONE PULLS
NORTHWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THE NEAR
TERM HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN FA BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT, AS
CURRENT ACTIVITY IS WEAK AND FADING FAST.

NEAR TERM TEMPS AND DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ALTERED.

105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE DRG THE DAY TMRW AS CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST BY AFTN WITH SKIES CLRNG RAPIDLY AFT
18Z. DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES HIPRES, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
M/U 50S THRU THE DAY. BRIEF S/WV RIDGING WL OCCUR AT UPR LVLS WITH
HGTS ON THE RISE.

SKIES WL BEGIN TO CLD UP LATE FRI NGT AS UPR LVL SYSTEM APPCHS
EASTERN CANADA AND SPREADS HIGH CIRRUS IN BY 12Z SAT. OVRNGT LOWS WL
BE COOLER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THEREFORE
HV GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR FRI NGT LOWS.

MED RANGE MODELS HV COME IN SLOWER WITH WK SFC TROF AND EVENTUAL
PCPN EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND. BRIEF RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON AND
DRY AIRMASS WL BE PREVALENT THRU MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS
INDICATING UPGLIDE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT ACRS THE NORTH AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 21Z.

HV RETAINED CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AS AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NW
FLOW. TEMPS WL LKLY MODERATE TO NR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
IT`S ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF NEW YORK. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FROPA...
HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. THIS IS DUE TO CAA AND THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE
RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED SHOWERS.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDDING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE NICE WEATHER MAY EXTEND FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK AS EACH GUIDANCE RUN HINTS THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL
PROPAGATE EAST SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW JUST EAST OF CAPE COD AND LOSING
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. WE ARE ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF CLOUD
COVER CURRENTLY...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS...BUT THOSE WILL ACTUALLY
IMPROVE BETWEEN 06Z-10Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND ERODES IT. BY
10Z KBGM-KITH SHOULD BE DONE WITH IFR...KAVP-KELM SHOULD BE ABOVE
FUEL ALT REQ LEVEL...AND KSYR-KRME CIG SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MVFR
TO VFR. REMAINDER OF CLOUDS WILL BE QUICK TO SCATTER OUT THIS
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE
TAKE OVER. NW WINDS 7-10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-19 KTS
/MAINLY DAYTIME/...WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 240132
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
932 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COME TO AN END
TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. FAIR WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S POP FORECAST LOOKS EXCELLENT AS CYCLONE PULLS
NORTHWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THE NEAR
TERM HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN FA BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT, AS
CURRENT ACTIVITY IS WEAK AND FADING FAST.

NEAR TERM TEMPS AND DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ALTERED.

105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE DRG THE DAY TMRW AS CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST BY AFTN WITH SKIES CLRNG RAPIDLY AFT
18Z. DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES HIPRES, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
M/U 50S THRU THE DAY. BRIEF S/WV RIDGING WL OCCUR AT UPR LVLS WITH
HGTS ON THE RISE.

SKIES WL BEGIN TO CLD UP LATE FRI NGT AS UPR LVL SYSTEM APPCHS
EASTERN CANADA AND SPREADS HIGH CIRRUS IN BY 12Z SAT. OVRNGT LOWS WL
BE COOLER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THEREFORE
HV GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR FRI NGT LOWS.

MED RANGE MODELS HV COME IN SLOWER WITH WK SFC TROF AND EVENTUAL
PCPN EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND. BRIEF RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON AND
DRY AIRMASS WL BE PREVALENT THRU MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS
INDICATING UPGLIDE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT ACRS THE NORTH AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 21Z.

HV RETAINED CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AS AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NW
FLOW. TEMPS WL LKLY MODERATE TO NR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
IT`S ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF NEW YORK. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FROPA...
HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. THIS IS DUE TO CAA AND THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE
RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED SHOWERS.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDDING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE NICE WEATHER MAY EXTEND FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK AS EACH GUIDANCE RUN HINTS THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL
PROPAGATE EAST SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CUTOFF LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW
MVFR/MVFR CATEGORY. AT KBGM IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. ON FRIDAY, CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE EARLY
TO MID MORNING HOURS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FURTHER TO JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT/SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 240001
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
801 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COME TO AN END
TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. FAIR WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE DRG THE DAY TMRW AS CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST BY AFTN WITH SKIES CLRNG RAPIDLY AFT
18Z. DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES HIPRES, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
M/U 50S THRU THE DAY. BRIEF S/WV RIDGING WL OCCUR AT UPR LVLS WITH
HGTS ON THE RISE.

SKIES WL BEGIN TO CLD UP LATE FRI NGT AS UPR LVL SYSTEM APPCHS
EASTERN CANADA AND SPREADS HIGH CIRRUS IN BY 12Z SAT. OVRNGT LOWS WL
BE COOLER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THEREFORE
HV GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR FRI NGT LOWS.

MED RANGE MODELS HV COME IN SLOWER WITH WK SFC TROF AND EVENTUAL
PCPN EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND. BRIEF RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON AND
DRY AIRMASS WL BE PREVALENT THRU MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS
INDICATING UPGLIDE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT ACRS THE NORTH AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 21Z.

HV RETAINED CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AS AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NW
FLOW. TEMPS WL LKLY MODERATE TO NR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
IT`S ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF NEW YORK. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FROPA...
HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. THIS IS DUE TO CAA AND THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE
RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED SHOWERS.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDDING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE NICE WEATHER MAY EXTEND FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK AS EACH GUIDANCE RUN HINTS THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL
PROPAGATE EAST SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CUTOFF LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW
MVFR/MVFR CATEGORY. AT KBGM IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. ON FRIDAY, CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE EARLY
TO MID MORNING HOURS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FURTHER TO JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT/SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231917
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
317 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COME TO AN END
TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. FAIR WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE DRG THE DAY TMRW AS CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST BY AFTN WITH SKIES CLRNG RAPIDLY AFT
18Z. DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES HIPRES, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
M/U 50S THRU THE DAY. BRIEF S/WV RIDGING WL OCCUR AT UPR LVLS WITH
HGTS ON THE RISE.

SKIES WL BEGIN TO CLD UP LATE FRI NGT AS UPR LVL SYSTEM APPCHS
EASTERN CANADA AND SPREADS HIGH CIRRUS IN BY 12Z SAT. OVRNGT LOWS WL
BE COOLER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THEREFORE
HV GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR FRI NGT LOWS.

MED RANGE MODELS HV COME IN SLOWER WITH WK SFC TROF AND EVENTUAL
PCPN EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND. BRIEF RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON AND
DRY AIRMASS WL BE PREVALENT THRU MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS
INDICATING UPGLIDE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT ACRS THE NORTH AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 21Z.

HV RETAINED CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AS AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NW
FLOW. TEMPS WL LKLY MODERATE TO NR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
IT`S ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF NEW YORK. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FROPA...
HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. THIS IS DUE TO CAA AND THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE
RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED SHOWERS.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDDING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE NICE WEATHER MAY EXTEND FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK AS EACH GUIDANCE RUN HINTS THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL
PROPAGATE EAST SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS CANADA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
IT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. VISBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 3SM WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT MVFR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING DRY AIR WILL START TO PUSH IN RESULTING IN
SKIES CLEARING OUT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TIMING OF THIS CLEARING
OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING. TRIED TO PLACE THE BEST TIMING ON THE
CLEARING BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST WHEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RETURN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH









000
FXUS61 KBGM 231917
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
317 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COME TO AN END
TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. FAIR WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE DRG THE DAY TMRW AS CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST BY AFTN WITH SKIES CLRNG RAPIDLY AFT
18Z. DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES HIPRES, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
M/U 50S THRU THE DAY. BRIEF S/WV RIDGING WL OCCUR AT UPR LVLS WITH
HGTS ON THE RISE.

SKIES WL BEGIN TO CLD UP LATE FRI NGT AS UPR LVL SYSTEM APPCHS
EASTERN CANADA AND SPREADS HIGH CIRRUS IN BY 12Z SAT. OVRNGT LOWS WL
BE COOLER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THEREFORE
HV GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR FRI NGT LOWS.

MED RANGE MODELS HV COME IN SLOWER WITH WK SFC TROF AND EVENTUAL
PCPN EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND. BRIEF RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON AND
DRY AIRMASS WL BE PREVALENT THRU MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS
INDICATING UPGLIDE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT ACRS THE NORTH AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 21Z.

HV RETAINED CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AS AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NW
FLOW. TEMPS WL LKLY MODERATE TO NR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
IT`S ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF NEW YORK. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FROPA...
HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. THIS IS DUE TO CAA AND THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE
RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED SHOWERS.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDDING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE NICE WEATHER MAY EXTEND FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK AS EACH GUIDANCE RUN HINTS THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL
PROPAGATE EAST SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS CANADA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
IT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. VISBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 3SM WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT MVFR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING DRY AIR WILL START TO PUSH IN RESULTING IN
SKIES CLEARING OUT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TIMING OF THIS CLEARING
OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING. TRIED TO PLACE THE BEST TIMING ON THE
CLEARING BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST WHEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RETURN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH









000
FXUS61 KBGM 231814
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
214 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COME TO AN END
TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. FAIR WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE DRG THE DAY TMRW AS CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST BY AFTN WITH SKIES CLRNG RAPIDLY AFT
18Z. DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES HIPRES, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
M/U 50S THRU THE DAY. BRIEF S/WV RIDGING WL OCCUR AT UPR LVLS WITH
HGTS ON THE RISE.

SKIES WL BEGIN TO CLD UP LATE FRI NGT AS UPR LVL SYSTEM APPCHS
EASTERN CANADA AND SPREADS HIGH CIRRUS IN BY 12Z SAT. OVRNGT LOWS WL
BE COOLER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THEREFORE
HV GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR FRI NGT LOWS.

MED RANGE MODELS HV COME IN SLOWER WITH WK SFC TROF AND EVENTUAL
PCPN EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND. BRIEF RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON AND
DRY AIRMASS WL BE PREVALENT THRU MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS
INDICATING UPGLIDE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT ACRS THE NORTH AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 21Z.

HV RETAINED CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AS AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NW
FLOW. TEMPS WL LKLY MODERATE TO NR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS CANADA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
IT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. VISBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 3SM WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT MVFR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING DRY AIR WILL START TO PUSH IN RESULTING IN
SKIES CLEARING OUT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TIMING OF THIS CLEARING
OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING. TRIED TO PLACE THE BEST TIMING ON THE
CLEARING BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST WHEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RETURN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231814
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
214 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COME TO AN END
TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. FAIR WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE DRG THE DAY TMRW AS CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST BY AFTN WITH SKIES CLRNG RAPIDLY AFT
18Z. DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES HIPRES, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
M/U 50S THRU THE DAY. BRIEF S/WV RIDGING WL OCCUR AT UPR LVLS WITH
HGTS ON THE RISE.

SKIES WL BEGIN TO CLD UP LATE FRI NGT AS UPR LVL SYSTEM APPCHS
EASTERN CANADA AND SPREADS HIGH CIRRUS IN BY 12Z SAT. OVRNGT LOWS WL
BE COOLER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THEREFORE
HV GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR FRI NGT LOWS.

MED RANGE MODELS HV COME IN SLOWER WITH WK SFC TROF AND EVENTUAL
PCPN EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND. BRIEF RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON AND
DRY AIRMASS WL BE PREVALENT THRU MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS
INDICATING UPGLIDE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT ACRS THE NORTH AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 21Z.

HV RETAINED CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AS AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NW
FLOW. TEMPS WL LKLY MODERATE TO NR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS CANADA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
IT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. VISBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 3SM WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT MVFR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING DRY AIR WILL START TO PUSH IN RESULTING IN
SKIES CLEARING OUT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TIMING OF THIS CLEARING
OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING. TRIED TO PLACE THE BEST TIMING ON THE
CLEARING BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST WHEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RETURN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231759
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS CANADA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
IT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. VISBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 3SM WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT MVFR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING DRY AIR WILL START TO PUSH IN RESULTING IN
SKIES CLEARING OUT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TIMING OF THIS CLEARING
OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING. TRIED TO PLACE THE BEST TIMING ON THE
CLEARING BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST WHEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RETURN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...KAH









000
FXUS61 KBGM 231759
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS CANADA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
IT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. VISBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 3SM WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT MVFR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING DRY AIR WILL START TO PUSH IN RESULTING IN
SKIES CLEARING OUT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TIMING OF THIS CLEARING
OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING. TRIED TO PLACE THE BEST TIMING ON THE
CLEARING BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST WHEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RETURN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...KAH









000
FXUS61 KBGM 231706
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
106 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS BIG ENOUGH TO THE POINT
THAT OUR TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND IT...SCT -SHRA AS WELL
EXCEPT FOR KITH-KELM. CIGS AT FUEL ALT MVFR KAVP-KITH-KBGM
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO HIGHER END MVFR...OTHER TERMINALS MAINLY
HIGHER END MVFR. KAVP-KBGM PROBABLY DIPPING BACK TO FUEL ALT MVFR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERS GENERALLY SCATTERING OUT BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS. PERSISTENT FUEL ALT MVFR FOR KAVP. WINDS
NNW TO NW 8-14 KTS...GUSTING 18-22 KTS...THEN BACKING AND
DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231706
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
106 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS BIG ENOUGH TO THE POINT
THAT OUR TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND IT...SCT -SHRA AS WELL
EXCEPT FOR KITH-KELM. CIGS AT FUEL ALT MVFR KAVP-KITH-KBGM
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO HIGHER END MVFR...OTHER TERMINALS MAINLY
HIGHER END MVFR. KAVP-KBGM PROBABLY DIPPING BACK TO FUEL ALT MVFR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERS GENERALLY SCATTERING OUT BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS. PERSISTENT FUEL ALT MVFR FOR KAVP. WINDS
NNW TO NW 8-14 KTS...GUSTING 18-22 KTS...THEN BACKING AND
DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231356
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
956 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
955 AM UPDATE...
SAME OLD SONG AND DANCE AS YESTERDAY AS COASTAL STORM CONTS TO
SPIN SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS MRNG. LIGHT RAIN HAS MADE IT INTO
AREAS EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THAT THIS WL CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THRU THIS EVNG BFR UPR LOW GETS THE BOOT. EXPECTING A TIGHT
GRADIENT IN PCPN ACRS CNTRL AND WRN SXNS OF CWA TDA AS 1025MB SFC
HIPRES IS SETTLED ACRS THE CORN BELT AND WL SLOWLY BUILD EAST THIS
AFTN. HV CONFINED MAJORITY OF POPS TO EAST OF I-81 THO CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER ACRS THE FINGER LKS THIS AFTN AND HV ADJUSTED
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO BE STUCK
IN THE 40S IN RAIN AREA. LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
WRN ZONES NOT EVEN APPCHG 50 FOR HIGHS AND PLAN TO WAIT ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HRS BFR LOWERING MAXES AS THIS SEEMS A LITTLE FAR-
FETCHED TO ME.

PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...

540 AM UPDATE...MINOR TWEEKS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS WITH GIST OF FCST
UNCHANGED. PREV BLO...

UPR LOW OFF THE JERSEY SHORE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FCST
AREA TDA AND TNGT. SYSTEM WILL SPIN BANDS OF RAIN INTO ERN ZONES
TDA...WHILE WRN ZONES (STEUBEN/YATES) MAY FLIRT WITH PS SKIES THIS
AFTN. IN ANY EVENT...CAT POPS ERN ZONES TDA...DROPPING OFF TO LOW
CHC POPS ACRS THE WEST WHERE SOME -SHRA COULD MIGRATE WWD INTO
THIS AREA THIS AFTN. POPS SLOWLY DCRS TNGT FROM W TO E AS LOW
SLOWLY MOVS AWAY. NRLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS TDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS BIG ENOUGH TO THE POINT
THAT OUR TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND IT...SCT -SHRA AS WELL
EXCEPT FOR KITH-KELM. CIGS AT FUEL ALT MVFR KAVP-KITH-KBGM
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO HIGHER END MVFR...OTHER TERMINALS MAINLY
HIGHER END MVFR. KAVP-KBGM PROBABLY DIPPING BACK TO FUEL ALT MVFR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERS GENERALLY SCATTERING OUT BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS. PERSISTENT FUEL ALT MVFR FOR KAVP. WINDS
NNW TO NW 8-14 KTS...GUSTING 18-22 KTS...THEN BACKING AND
DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231100
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
700 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE...MINOR TWEEKS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS WITH GIST OF FCST
UNCHANGED. PREV BLO...

UPR LOW OFF THE JERSEY SHORE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FCST
AREA TDA AND TNGT. SYSTEM WILL SPIN BANDS OF RAIN INTO ERN ZONES
TDA...WHILE WRN ZONES (STEUBEN/YATES) MAY FLIRT WITH PS SKIES THIS
AFTN. IN ANY EVENT...CAT POPS ERN ZONES TDA...DROPPING OFF TO LOW
CHC POPS ACRS THE WEST WHERE SOME -SHRA COULD MIGRATE WWD INTO
THIS AREA THIS AFTN. POPS SLOWLY DCRS TNGT FROM W TO E AS LOW
SLOWLY MOVS AWAY. NRLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS TDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS BIG ENOUGH TO THE POINT
THAT OUR TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND IT...SCT -SHRA AS WELL
EXCEPT FOR KITH-KELM. CIGS AT FUEL ALT MVFR KAVP-KITH-KBGM
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO HIGHER END MVFR...OTHER TERMINALS MAINLY
HIGHER END MVFR. KAVP-KBGM PROBABLY DIPPING BACK TO FUEL ALT MVFR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERS GENERALLY SCATTERING OUT BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS. PERSISTENT FUEL ALT MVFR FOR KAVP. WINDS
NNW TO NW 8-14 KTS...GUSTING 18-22 KTS...THEN BACKING AND
DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 230943
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
543 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE...MINOR TWEEKS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS WITH GIST OF FCST
UNCHANGED. PREV BLO...

UPR LOW OFF THE JERSEY SHORE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FCST
AREA TDA AND TNGT. SYSTEM WILL SPIN BANDS OF RAIN INTO ERN ZONES
TDA...WHILE WRN ZONES (STEUBEN/YATES) MAY FLIRT WITH PS SKIES THIS
AFTN. IN ANY EVENT...CAT POPS ERN ZONES TDA...DROPPING OFF TO LOW
CHC POPS ACRS THE WEST WHERE SOME -SHRA COULD MIGRATE WWD INTO
THIS AREA THIS AFTN. POPS SLOWLY DCRS TNGT FROM W TO E AS LOW
SLOWLY MOVS AWAY. NRLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS TDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
08Z UPDATE...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS BIG ENOUGH TO THE POINT
THAT OUR TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND IT...SCT -SHRA AS WELL
EXCEPT FOR KITH-KELM. HILLTOP TERMINAL KBGM WAS INITIALLY WORST IN REGARDS
TO IFR CIG...BUT DRIER AIR IS JUST STARTING TO WORK IN AT LOW
LEVELS WHICH HAS LIFTED THE CIG. CIGS WILL BOUNCE IN-AND-OUT OF
FUEL ALT MVFR KELM-KITH-KBGM. PERSISTENT FUEL ALT MVFR FOR KAVP.
KRME-KSYR INITIALLY VFR BUT SETTLING INTO MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
INCLUDING SOME FUEL ALT REQ MVFR KSYR AT TIMES LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS STEADY OUT OF NNW TO NW 8-14 KTS...GUSTING 18-22 KTS DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER...KELM ALREADY GUSTY DUE TO LOCALIZED CHANNELING
DOWN THE VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 230943
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
543 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE...MINOR TWEEKS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS WITH GIST OF FCST
UNCHANGED. PREV BLO...

UPR LOW OFF THE JERSEY SHORE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FCST
AREA TDA AND TNGT. SYSTEM WILL SPIN BANDS OF RAIN INTO ERN ZONES
TDA...WHILE WRN ZONES (STEUBEN/YATES) MAY FLIRT WITH PS SKIES THIS
AFTN. IN ANY EVENT...CAT POPS ERN ZONES TDA...DROPPING OFF TO LOW
CHC POPS ACRS THE WEST WHERE SOME -SHRA COULD MIGRATE WWD INTO
THIS AREA THIS AFTN. POPS SLOWLY DCRS TNGT FROM W TO E AS LOW
SLOWLY MOVS AWAY. NRLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS TDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
08Z UPDATE...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS BIG ENOUGH TO THE POINT
THAT OUR TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND IT...SCT -SHRA AS WELL
EXCEPT FOR KITH-KELM. HILLTOP TERMINAL KBGM WAS INITIALLY WORST IN REGARDS
TO IFR CIG...BUT DRIER AIR IS JUST STARTING TO WORK IN AT LOW
LEVELS WHICH HAS LIFTED THE CIG. CIGS WILL BOUNCE IN-AND-OUT OF
FUEL ALT MVFR KELM-KITH-KBGM. PERSISTENT FUEL ALT MVFR FOR KAVP.
KRME-KSYR INITIALLY VFR BUT SETTLING INTO MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
INCLUDING SOME FUEL ALT REQ MVFR KSYR AT TIMES LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS STEADY OUT OF NNW TO NW 8-14 KTS...GUSTING 18-22 KTS DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER...KELM ALREADY GUSTY DUE TO LOCALIZED CHANNELING
DOWN THE VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 230747
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPR LOW OFF THE JERSEY SHORE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA
TDA AND TNGT. SYSTEM WILL SPIN BANDS OF RAIN INTO ERN
ZONES TDA...WHILE WRN ZONES (STEUBEN/YATES) MAY FLIRT WITH PS SKIES
THIS AFTN. IN ANY EVENT...CAT POPS ERN ZONES TDA...DROPPING OFF TO
LOW CHC POPS ACRS THE WEST WHERE SOME -SHRA COULD MIGRATE WWD INTO
THIS AREA THIS AFTN. POPS SLOWLY DCRS TNGT FROM W TO E AS LOW
SLOWLY MOVS AWAY. NRLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS TDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
08Z UPDATE...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS BIG ENOUGH TO THE POINT
THAT OUR TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND IT...SCT -SHRA AS WELL
EXCEPT FOR KITH-KELM. HILLTOP TERMINAL KBGM WAS INITIALLY WORST IN REGARDS
TO IFR CIG...BUT DRIER AIR IS JUST STARTING TO WORK IN AT LOW
LEVELS WHICH HAS LIFTED THE CIG. CIGS WILL BOUNCE IN-AND-OUT OF
FUEL ALT MVFR KELM-KITH-KBGM. PERSISTENT FUEL ALT MVFR FOR KAVP.
KRME-KSYR INITIALLY VFR BUT SETTLING INTO MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
INCLUDING SOME FUEL ALT REQ MVFR KSYR AT TIMES LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS STEADY OUT OF NNW TO NW 8-14 KTS...GUSTING 18-22 KTS DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER...KELM ALREADY GUSTY DUE TO LOCALIZED CHANNELING
DOWN THE VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 230656
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
256 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

UPR LOW OFF THE JERSEY SHORE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA
TDA AND TNGT. SYSTEM WILL SPIN BANDS OF RAIN INTO ERN
ZONES TDA...WHILE WRN ZONES (STEUBEN/YATES) MAY FLIRT WITH PS SKIES
THIS AFTN. IN ANY EVENT...CAT POPS ERN ZONES TDA...DROPPING OFF TO
LOW CHC POPS ACRS THE WEST WHERE SOME -SHRA COULD MIGRATE WWD INTO
THIS AREA THIS AFTN. POPS SLOWLY DCRS TNGT FROM W TO E AS LOW
SLOWLY MOVS AWAY. NRLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS TDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAVE RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS BIG ENOUGH TO THE POINT
THAT OUR TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND IT...SCT -SHRA AS WELL
EXCEPT FOR KITH-KELM. HILLTOP TERMINAL KBGM TO BE WORST IN REGARDS
TO CIG WITH PERSISTENT IFR...LIFTING INTO FUEL ALT REQ MVFR BY
LATE MORNING. CIGS WILL BOUNCE IN-AND-OUT OF FUEL ALT MVFR KELM-
KITH...AND EVEN AT TIMES IFR KITH LATER THIS MORNING. PERSISTENT
FUEL ALT MVFR FOR KAVP. KRME-KSYR INITIALLY VFR BUT SETTLING INTO
MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY INCLUDING SOME FUEL ALT REQ MVFR KSYR AT
TIMES LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS STEADY OUT OF NNW TO NW 8-14
KTS...GUSTING 18-22 KTS DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...KELM ALREADY
GUSTY DUE TO LOCALIZED CHANNELING DOWN THE VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 230556
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS, COOL AIR AND PERIODS OF RAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
820 PM UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS IN THE NEAR TERM AS WV IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS A
BETTER SLUG OF MOISTURE WORKING INLAND THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY
TOWARD OUR EASTERN FA.

LIKELY POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE FAR EASTERN FA. POPS
LOWER TO CHANCE AS ONE APPROACHES THE I-81 CORRIDOR.

MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPERATURES AS THE CENTRAL SO TIER HAS COOLED
BELOW PLAN.


1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM WL PINWHEEL ARND CAPE COD TOMORROW CONTG TO THROW RAIN
BACK TWD THE AREA IN STRONG ERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY WV THAT PASSES THRU THE AREA WL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN DRG THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HV CONTD WITH LKLY-CATEGORICAL
POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH JUST SCTD POPS RMNDR OF THE AREA. DOWNGLIDE
ON 295K LYR LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT FOR FINGER LKS REGION AFT 18Z
TOMORROW. TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GO ANYWHERE TOMORROW AND HV
GONE WITH A GMOS/MET NUMBER COMPROMISE, GNRLY HIGHS U40S/NR 50.

UPR LOW WL BEGIN TO FEEL A KICKER MV IN LATE TOMORROW NGT TO BEGIN
LESSENING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI MRNG SHOWERS WL QUICKLY DWINDLE THUR NGT FM SW TO NE.

HIPRES WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN DRG THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY BUT COASTAL
LOW WL STILL HV ENUF OF AN IMPACT TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. THUS HV GONE MUCH LWR THAN GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTING
HIGHS TO MAKE MUCH OF A RUN AT 60F EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. THINK THAT MAXES WL GNRLY TOP OUT IN THE
M50S ON FRIDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW DOES NOT EASE UNTIL LATE FRI NGT WITH A WEST WIND
SETTING IN BY 06Z. EXPECT FRI NGT TO BE PCPN-FREE AS WE WL BE
BRIEFLY UNDER RIDGE AXIS. AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL SWING THRU SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAVE RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS BIG ENOUGH TO THE POINT
THAT OUR TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND IT...SCT -SHRA AS WELL
EXCEPT FOR KITH-KELM. HILLTOP TERMINAL KBGM TO BE WORST IN REGARDS
TO CIG WITH PERSISTENT IFR...LIFTING INTO FUEL ALT REQ MVFR BY
LATE MORNING. CIGS WILL BOUNCE IN-AND-OUT OF FUEL ALT MVFR KELM-
KITH...AND EVEN AT TIMES IFR KITH LATER THIS MORNING. PERSISTENT
FUEL ALT MVFR FOR KAVP. KRME-KSYR INITIALLY VFR BUT SETTLING INTO
MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY INCLUDING SOME FUEL ALT REQ MVFR KSYR AT
TIMES LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS STEADY OUT OF NNW TO NW 8-14
KTS...GUSTING 18-22 KTS DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...KELM ALREADY
GUSTY DUE TO LOCALIZED CHANNELING DOWN THE VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 230026
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
826 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS, COOL AIR AND PERIODS OF RAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
820 PM UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS IN THE NEAR TERM AS WV IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS A
BETTER SLUG OF MOISTURE WORKING INLAND THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY
TOWARD OUR EASTERN FA.

LIKELY POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE FAR EASTERN FA. POPS
LOWER TO CHANCE AS ONE APPROACHES THE I-81 CORRIDOR.

MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPERATURES AS THE CENTRAL SO TIER HAS COOLED
BELOW PLAN.


1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM WL PINWHEEL ARND CAPE COD TOMORROW CONTG TO THROW RAIN
BACK TWD THE AREA IN STRONG ERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY WV THAT PASSES THRU THE AREA WL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN DRG THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HV CONTD WITH LKLY-CATEGORICAL
POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH JUST SCTD POPS RMNDR OF THE AREA. DOWNGLIDE
ON 295K LYR LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT FOR FINGER LKS REGION AFT 18Z
TOMORROW. TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GO ANYWHERE TOMORROW AND HV
GONE WITH A GMOS/MET NUMBER COMPROMISE, GNRLY HIGHS U40S/NR 50.

UPR LOW WL BEGIN TO FEEL A KICKER MV IN LATE TOMORROW NGT TO BEGIN
LESSENING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI MRNG SHOWERS WL QUICKLY DWINDLE THUR NGT FM SW TO NE.

HIPRES WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN DRG THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY BUT COASTAL
LOW WL STILL HV ENUF OF AN IMPACT TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. THUS HV GONE MUCH LWR THAN GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTING
HIGHS TO MAKE MUCH OF A RUN AT 60F EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. THINK THAT MAXES WL GNRLY TOP OUT IN THE
M50S ON FRIDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW DOES NOT EASE UNTIL LATE FRI NGT WITH A WEST WIND
SETTING IN BY 06Z. EXPECT FRI NGT TO BE PCPN-FREE AS WE WL BE
BRIEFLY UNDER RIDGE AXIS. AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL SWING THRU SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAVE RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. IN GENERAL CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MVFR AT
KRME/KSYR WITH LOW MVFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
(KITH/KELM/KAVP) WITH IFR AT KBGM. AT KITH, CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY
BE IFR BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. AS AREA OF SHOWERS IS ALSO PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING AND THIS WILL OCCASIONALLY CAUSE
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY, CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KELM/KAVP.

N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY AT 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 230026
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
826 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS, COOL AIR AND PERIODS OF RAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
820 PM UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS IN THE NEAR TERM AS WV IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS A
BETTER SLUG OF MOISTURE WORKING INLAND THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY
TOWARD OUR EASTERN FA.

LIKELY POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE FAR EASTERN FA. POPS
LOWER TO CHANCE AS ONE APPROACHES THE I-81 CORRIDOR.

MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPERATURES AS THE CENTRAL SO TIER HAS COOLED
BELOW PLAN.


1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM WL PINWHEEL ARND CAPE COD TOMORROW CONTG TO THROW RAIN
BACK TWD THE AREA IN STRONG ERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY WV THAT PASSES THRU THE AREA WL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN DRG THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HV CONTD WITH LKLY-CATEGORICAL
POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH JUST SCTD POPS RMNDR OF THE AREA. DOWNGLIDE
ON 295K LYR LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT FOR FINGER LKS REGION AFT 18Z
TOMORROW. TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GO ANYWHERE TOMORROW AND HV
GONE WITH A GMOS/MET NUMBER COMPROMISE, GNRLY HIGHS U40S/NR 50.

UPR LOW WL BEGIN TO FEEL A KICKER MV IN LATE TOMORROW NGT TO BEGIN
LESSENING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI MRNG SHOWERS WL QUICKLY DWINDLE THUR NGT FM SW TO NE.

HIPRES WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN DRG THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY BUT COASTAL
LOW WL STILL HV ENUF OF AN IMPACT TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. THUS HV GONE MUCH LWR THAN GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTING
HIGHS TO MAKE MUCH OF A RUN AT 60F EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. THINK THAT MAXES WL GNRLY TOP OUT IN THE
M50S ON FRIDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW DOES NOT EASE UNTIL LATE FRI NGT WITH A WEST WIND
SETTING IN BY 06Z. EXPECT FRI NGT TO BE PCPN-FREE AS WE WL BE
BRIEFLY UNDER RIDGE AXIS. AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL SWING THRU SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAVE RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. IN GENERAL CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MVFR AT
KRME/KSYR WITH LOW MVFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
(KITH/KELM/KAVP) WITH IFR AT KBGM. AT KITH, CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY
BE IFR BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. AS AREA OF SHOWERS IS ALSO PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING AND THIS WILL OCCASIONALLY CAUSE
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY, CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KELM/KAVP.

N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY AT 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 222357
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
757 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS, COOL AIR AND PERIODS OF RAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM WL PINWHEEL ARND CAPE COD TOMORROW CONTG TO THROW RAIN
BACK TWD THE AREA IN STRONG ERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY WV THAT PASSES THRU THE AREA WL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN DRG THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HV CONTD WITH LKLY-CATEGORICAL
POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH JUST SCTD POPS RMNDR OF THE AREA. DOWNGLIDE
ON 295K LYR LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT FOR FINGER LKS REGION AFT 18Z
TOMORROW. TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GO ANYWHERE TOMORROW AND HV
GONE WITH A GMOS/MET NUMBER COMPROMISE, GNRLY HIGHS U40S/NR 50.

UPR LOW WL BEGIN TO FEEL A KICKER MV IN LATE TOMORROW NGT TO BEGIN
LESSENING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI MRNG SHOWERS WL QUICKLY DWINDLE THUR NGT FM SW TO NE.

HIPRES WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN DRG THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY BUT COASTAL
LOW WL STILL HV ENUF OF AN IMPACT TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. THUS HV GONE MUCH LWR THAN GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTING
HIGHS TO MAKE MUCH OF A RUN AT 60F EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. THINK THAT MAXES WL GNRLY TOP OUT IN THE
M50S ON FRIDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW DOES NOT EASE UNTIL LATE FRI NGT WITH A WEST WIND
SETTING IN BY 06Z. EXPECT FRI NGT TO BE PCPN-FREE AS WE WL BE
BRIEFLY UNDER RIDGE AXIS. AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL SWING THRU SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAVE RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. IN GENERAL CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MVFR AT
KRME/KSYR WITH LOW MVFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
(KITH/KELM/KAVP) WITH IFR AT KBGM. AT KITH, CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY
BE IFR BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. AS AREA OF SHOWERS IS ALSO PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING AND THIS WILL OCCASIONALLY CAUSE
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY, CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KELM/KAVP.

N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY AT 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 222357
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
757 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS, COOL AIR AND PERIODS OF RAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM WL PINWHEEL ARND CAPE COD TOMORROW CONTG TO THROW RAIN
BACK TWD THE AREA IN STRONG ERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY WV THAT PASSES THRU THE AREA WL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN DRG THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HV CONTD WITH LKLY-CATEGORICAL
POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH JUST SCTD POPS RMNDR OF THE AREA. DOWNGLIDE
ON 295K LYR LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT FOR FINGER LKS REGION AFT 18Z
TOMORROW. TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GO ANYWHERE TOMORROW AND HV
GONE WITH A GMOS/MET NUMBER COMPROMISE, GNRLY HIGHS U40S/NR 50.

UPR LOW WL BEGIN TO FEEL A KICKER MV IN LATE TOMORROW NGT TO BEGIN
LESSENING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI MRNG SHOWERS WL QUICKLY DWINDLE THUR NGT FM SW TO NE.

HIPRES WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN DRG THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY BUT COASTAL
LOW WL STILL HV ENUF OF AN IMPACT TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. THUS HV GONE MUCH LWR THAN GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTING
HIGHS TO MAKE MUCH OF A RUN AT 60F EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. THINK THAT MAXES WL GNRLY TOP OUT IN THE
M50S ON FRIDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW DOES NOT EASE UNTIL LATE FRI NGT WITH A WEST WIND
SETTING IN BY 06Z. EXPECT FRI NGT TO BE PCPN-FREE AS WE WL BE
BRIEFLY UNDER RIDGE AXIS. AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL SWING THRU SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAVE RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. IN GENERAL CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MVFR AT
KRME/KSYR WITH LOW MVFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
(KITH/KELM/KAVP) WITH IFR AT KBGM. AT KITH, CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY
BE IFR BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. AS AREA OF SHOWERS IS ALSO PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING AND THIS WILL OCCASIONALLY CAUSE
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY, CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KELM/KAVP.

N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY AT 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 221850
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS, COOL AIR AND PERIODS OF RAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM WL PINWHEEL ARND CAPE COD TOMORROW CONTG TO THROW RAIN
BACK TWD THE AREA IN STRONG ERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY WV THAT PASSES THRU THE AREA WL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN DRG THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HV CONTD WITH LKLY-CATEGORICAL
POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH JUST SCTD POPS RMNDR OF THE AREA. DOWNGLIDE
ON 295K LYR LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT FOR FINGER LKS REGION AFT 18Z
TOMORROW. TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GO ANYWHERE TOMORROW AND HV
GONE WITH A GMOS/MET NUMBER COMPROMISE, GNRLY HIGHS U40S/NR 50.

UPR LOW WL BEGIN TO FEEL A KICKER MV IN LATE TOMORROW NGT TO BEGIN
LESSENING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI MRNG SHOWERS WL QUICKLY DWINDLE THUR NGT FM SW TO NE.

HIPRES WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN DRG THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY BUT COASTAL
LOW WL STILL HV ENUF OF AN IMPACT TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. THUS HV GONE MUCH LWR THAN GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTING
HIGHS TO MAKE MUCH OF A RUN AT 60F EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. THINK THAT MAXES WL GNRLY TOP OUT IN THE
M50S ON FRIDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW DOES NOT EASE UNTIL LATE FRI NGT WITH A WEST WIND
SETTING IN BY 06Z. EXPECT FRI NGT TO BE PCPN-FREE AS WE WL BE
BRIEFLY UNDER RIDGE AXIS. AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL SWING THRU SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAVE RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY. AS THIS DRIFTS TO THE EAST... RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO EITHER RISE TO MVFR OR VFR THIS AFTERNOON... THEN
AROUND 00Z TONIGHT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MVFR
OR BELOW. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT AT KELM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VISBYS MAY FALL TO
MVFR WITH THESE SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL START OFF AS NORTHERLY
AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REMAIN
AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH










000
FXUS61 KBGM 221832
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
232 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS, COOL AIR AND PERIODS OF RAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM WL PINWHEEL ARND CAPE COD TOMORROW CONTG TO THROW RAIN
BACK TWD THE AREA IN STRONG ERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY WV THAT PASSES THRU THE AREA WL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN DRG THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HV CONTD WITH LKLY-CATEGORICAL
POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH JUST SCTD POPS RMNDR OF THE AREA. DOWNGLIDE
ON 295K LYR LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT FOR FINGER LKS REGION AFT 18Z
TOMORROW. TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GO ANYWHERE TOMORROW AND HV
GONE WITH A GMOS/MET NUMBER COMPROMISE, GNRLY HIGHS U40S/NR 50.

UPR LOW WL BEGIN TO FEEL A KICKER MV IN LATE TOMORROW NGT TO BEGIN
LESSENING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI MRNG SHOWERS WL QUICKLY DWINDLE THUR NGT FM SW TO NE.

HIPRES WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN DRG THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY BUT COASTAL
LOW WL STILL HV ENUF OF AN IMPACT TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. THUS HV GONE MUCH LWR THAN GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTING
HIGHS TO MAKE MUCH OF A RUN AT 60F EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. THINK THAT MAXES WL GNRLY TOP OUT IN THE
M50S ON FRIDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW DOES NOT EASE UNTIL LATE FRI NGT WITH A WEST WIND
SETTING IN BY 06Z. EXPECT FRI NGT TO BE PCPN-FREE AS WE WL BE
BRIEFLY UNDER RIDGE AXIS. AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL SWING THRU SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY. AS THIS DRIFTS TO THE EAST... RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO EITHER RISE TO MVFR OR VFR THIS AFTERNOON... THEN
AROUND 00Z TONIGHT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MVFR
OR BELOW. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT AT KELM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VISBYS MAY FALL TO
MVFR WITH THESE SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL START OFF AS NORTHERLY
AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REMAIN
AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...KAH






000
FXUS61 KBGM 221759
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS...COOL AIR...AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
STRONG EASTERLY 850MB JET THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING A WAYS INTO OUR REGION. WE SHOULD THUS STILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CATSKILLS...SHIFTING TOWARDS
UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES WITH TIME. IN
REGARDS TO AREAL AVERAGE QPF...EXPECTING ANOTHER THIRD TO HALF
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY ALONE...TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES...EASTERLY 850MB JET BACKS WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...AND IN FACT EVEN NORTH- NORTHWEST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO TAKE MORE OF A CIRCUITOUS ROUTE AS
TIME MARCHES ON...WITH INCREASINGLY CONTINENTAL COMPONENT AT LOWER
LEVELS. SO WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL CONTINUE...ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD LESSEN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER DEGREE ECMWF START TO LET GO OF THE
AREA...BUT NAM IS SLOWER WITH EXIT OF UPPER LOW AND SO HAS
VORTICITY SPOKE PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME I HAVE ELECTED FOR 40-50 POPS ACROSS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR BUT
ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD.

DAMPNESS-CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE SUPPRESS DIURNAL RANGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY LOWER 40S BY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S THURSDAY /MAINLY 50S FRIDAY/.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS LONG SLOG OF AN EVENT...FROM TODAY
/WEDNESDAY/ THROUGH FRIDAY WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGES FROM SEVERAL
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER NY-WYOMING VALLEY
PA...TO BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OR SO IN WESTERN
CATSKILLS-NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR-ITHACA-CORTLAND-OWEGO-BINGHAMTON-
MONTROSE-HONESDALE-MILFORD. SPREAD OUT OVER SO MUCH TIME...WE DO
NOT AT ALL ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY. AS THIS DRIFTS TO THE EAST... RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO EITHER RISE TO MVFR OR VFR THIS AFTERNOON... THEN
AROUND 00Z TONIGHT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MVFR
OR BELOW. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT AT KELM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VISBYS MAY FALL TO
MVFR WITH THESE SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL START OFF AS NORTHERLY
AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REMAIN
AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...KAH









000
FXUS61 KBGM 221759
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS...COOL AIR...AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
STRONG EASTERLY 850MB JET THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING A WAYS INTO OUR REGION. WE SHOULD THUS STILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CATSKILLS...SHIFTING TOWARDS
UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES WITH TIME. IN
REGARDS TO AREAL AVERAGE QPF...EXPECTING ANOTHER THIRD TO HALF
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY ALONE...TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES...EASTERLY 850MB JET BACKS WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...AND IN FACT EVEN NORTH- NORTHWEST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO TAKE MORE OF A CIRCUITOUS ROUTE AS
TIME MARCHES ON...WITH INCREASINGLY CONTINENTAL COMPONENT AT LOWER
LEVELS. SO WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL CONTINUE...ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD LESSEN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER DEGREE ECMWF START TO LET GO OF THE
AREA...BUT NAM IS SLOWER WITH EXIT OF UPPER LOW AND SO HAS
VORTICITY SPOKE PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME I HAVE ELECTED FOR 40-50 POPS ACROSS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR BUT
ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD.

DAMPNESS-CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE SUPPRESS DIURNAL RANGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY LOWER 40S BY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S THURSDAY /MAINLY 50S FRIDAY/.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS LONG SLOG OF AN EVENT...FROM TODAY
/WEDNESDAY/ THROUGH FRIDAY WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGES FROM SEVERAL
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER NY-WYOMING VALLEY
PA...TO BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OR SO IN WESTERN
CATSKILLS-NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR-ITHACA-CORTLAND-OWEGO-BINGHAMTON-
MONTROSE-HONESDALE-MILFORD. SPREAD OUT OVER SO MUCH TIME...WE DO
NOT AT ALL ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY. AS THIS DRIFTS TO THE EAST... RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO EITHER RISE TO MVFR OR VFR THIS AFTERNOON... THEN
AROUND 00Z TONIGHT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MVFR
OR BELOW. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT AT KELM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VISBYS MAY FALL TO
MVFR WITH THESE SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL START OFF AS NORTHERLY
AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REMAIN
AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...KAH









000
FXUS61 KBGM 221701
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
101 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS...COOL AIR...AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
STRONG EASTERLY 850MB JET THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING A WAYS INTO OUR REGION. WE SHOULD THUS STILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CATSKILLS...SHIFTING TOWARDS
UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES WITH TIME. IN
REGARDS TO AREAL AVERAGE QPF...EXPECTING ANOTHER THIRD TO HALF
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY ALONE...TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES...EASTERLY 850MB JET BACKS WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...AND IN FACT EVEN NORTH- NORTHWEST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO TAKE MORE OF A CIRCUITOUS ROUTE AS
TIME MARCHES ON...WITH INCREASINGLY CONTINENTAL COMPONENT AT LOWER
LEVELS. SO WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL CONTINUE...ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD LESSEN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER DEGREE ECMWF START TO LET GO OF THE
AREA...BUT NAM IS SLOWER WITH EXIT OF UPPER LOW AND SO HAS
VORTICITY SPOKE PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME I HAVE ELECTED FOR 40-50 POPS ACROSS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR BUT
ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD.

DAMPNESS-CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE SUPPRESS DIURNAL RANGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY LOWER 40S BY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S THURSDAY /MAINLY 50S FRIDAY/.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS LONG SLOG OF AN EVENT...FROM TODAY
/WEDNESDAY/ THROUGH FRIDAY WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGES FROM SEVERAL
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER NY-WYOMING VALLEY
PA...TO BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OR SO IN WESTERN
CATSKILLS-NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR-ITHACA-CORTLAND-OWEGO-BINGHAMTON-
MONTROSE-HONESDALE-MILFORD. SPREAD OUT OVER SO MUCH TIME...WE DO
NOT AT ALL ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. OVERALL...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR XPCTD THRU THE FCST PD. AT
RME...SUGGESTIONS THAT BRIEF PDS OF VFR WILL BE PSBL DUE TO
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR AND DOWNSLOPING DUE TO NE WINDS. LATER
TDA XPCT IFR/MVFR TO BCM RE-ESTABLISHED. ELSEWHERE OVER CNTRL
NY...CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY BLO AT MINS THIS MRNG BEFORE POTNL
IMPRVMNT TO MVFR LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. AT AVP...MVFR XPCTD TO
PREVAIL. BEST CHC FOR -SHRA APPEARS TO BE AT BGM AND AVP EARLY
THIS MRNG...WITH -SHRA BECMG MORE WDPSRD BY EARLY EVENING AS
ENHANCED MSTR MVS IN FROM THE EAST. NNE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING
NRLY 10-15 KTS TDA AND NNW 10-20 KTS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 221701
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
101 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS...COOL AIR...AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
STRONG EASTERLY 850MB JET THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING A WAYS INTO OUR REGION. WE SHOULD THUS STILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CATSKILLS...SHIFTING TOWARDS
UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES WITH TIME. IN
REGARDS TO AREAL AVERAGE QPF...EXPECTING ANOTHER THIRD TO HALF
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY ALONE...TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES...EASTERLY 850MB JET BACKS WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...AND IN FACT EVEN NORTH- NORTHWEST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO TAKE MORE OF A CIRCUITOUS ROUTE AS
TIME MARCHES ON...WITH INCREASINGLY CONTINENTAL COMPONENT AT LOWER
LEVELS. SO WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL CONTINUE...ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD LESSEN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER DEGREE ECMWF START TO LET GO OF THE
AREA...BUT NAM IS SLOWER WITH EXIT OF UPPER LOW AND SO HAS
VORTICITY SPOKE PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME I HAVE ELECTED FOR 40-50 POPS ACROSS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR BUT
ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD.

DAMPNESS-CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE SUPPRESS DIURNAL RANGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY LOWER 40S BY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S THURSDAY /MAINLY 50S FRIDAY/.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS LONG SLOG OF AN EVENT...FROM TODAY
/WEDNESDAY/ THROUGH FRIDAY WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGES FROM SEVERAL
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER NY-WYOMING VALLEY
PA...TO BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OR SO IN WESTERN
CATSKILLS-NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR-ITHACA-CORTLAND-OWEGO-BINGHAMTON-
MONTROSE-HONESDALE-MILFORD. SPREAD OUT OVER SO MUCH TIME...WE DO
NOT AT ALL ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. OVERALL...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR XPCTD THRU THE FCST PD. AT
RME...SUGGESTIONS THAT BRIEF PDS OF VFR WILL BE PSBL DUE TO
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR AND DOWNSLOPING DUE TO NE WINDS. LATER
TDA XPCT IFR/MVFR TO BCM RE-ESTABLISHED. ELSEWHERE OVER CNTRL
NY...CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY BLO AT MINS THIS MRNG BEFORE POTNL
IMPRVMNT TO MVFR LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. AT AVP...MVFR XPCTD TO
PREVAIL. BEST CHC FOR -SHRA APPEARS TO BE AT BGM AND AVP EARLY
THIS MRNG...WITH -SHRA BECMG MORE WDPSRD BY EARLY EVENING AS
ENHANCED MSTR MVS IN FROM THE EAST. NNE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING
NRLY 10-15 KTS TDA AND NNW 10-20 KTS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 221420
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1020 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS...COOL AIR...AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
ONLY SPRINKLES AND PATCHY DRIZZLE RMN AT THIS TIME OVR SERN ZONES.
WL LKLY SEE CHCS DIMINISH INTO THE AFTN BUT NOT COMPLETELY NON-
EXISTENT SO HV KEPT JUST LOCHC POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE TWIN
TIERS. EXPECTING VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PCPN ACRS NRN
ZONES. ALL THIS CHGS TWD 00Z TONIGHT AS WV SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
GETS FLUNG UP INTO NEW ENGLAND AND RETROGRADES TWD FA OVRNGT. THUS
ALL GRIDS LOOK TO BE GOOD WITH LKLY POPS INCREASING THROUGHOUT
THE OVRNGT FM THE EAST.

AS FOR TDA, HV LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS TEMPS ARE VRY SLOW TO RISE.
CLDY AND DREARY CONDS WL LKLY NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR TEMPS TO RISE
MUCH MORE THAN 2-4 DEGREES INTO THE AFTN AND MAY NEED TO DROP
MAXES FURTHER WITH LATER UPDATES.

PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...

655 AM UPDATE...
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS-SPRINKLES IS NOW DROPPING FROM WESTERN
CATSKILLS ACROSS TWIN TIERS/NEPA. TREND IN HIGH RES MODELS AND
LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS IS FOR A RELATIVE LULL TO OCCUR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS WAVE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH ARRIVES FROM EAST LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. FORECAST ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. STILL SOLID CLOUD
COVER WHICH SOME MAY CONSIDER DREARY...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE
THIS MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE RAIN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY AMPLIFIED DIGGING TROUGH HAS NOW CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW...THE
CENTER OF WHICH IS DESCENDING UPON VIRGINIA...AND IN RESPONSE
CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE OFFSHORE FROM CHESAPEAKE
BAY. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS BECOME STACKED THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH WILL HALT MOVEMENT OF BOTH...LEAVING US STUCK IN THE
MOIST AND COOL NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LARGE SYSTEM FOR A LONG
DURATION.

THROUGH TODAY...IN ADDITION TO A SOLID OVERCAST SKY...WAVES OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PEPPER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BEST
CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF I-81. TO THE WEST...THOUGH GLOOMY...MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.
MOISTURE TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND THUS RAIN AMOUNTS QUITE
LIGHT...MOST PLACES ONLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH EVEN
LIGHTER AMOUNTS TOWARDS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR.

THEN TONIGHT...SOME DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
EASTERLY COMPONENT OF 850MB WIND /AS IN 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
OVER NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THU/ WILL FURTHER INJECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE
INTO THE SYSTEM. THANKFULLY WITH OUR COOL AND FAIRLY STABLE
COLUMN...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STRUGGLE INTO INCREASE
TO RANGE OF THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH BY 12Z
THURSDAY. WEST OF I-81...RAIN AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY JUST
BE A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH...BUT TO THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS CATSKILLS...QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL EASILY
ATTAINABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE ON THE WAY. BY 12Z
THURSDAY...THE FOOTPRINT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
EXPANSIVE...WITH A TRAIN OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO
BERMUDA...NORTHWARD TO NOVA SCOTIA...THEN COILED BACK ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND DOWN THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS.

GIVEN ALL OF THIS MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS...VERY NARROW DIURNAL
RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS...LOWER TO
MID 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
STRONG EASTERLY 850MB JET THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING A WAYS INTO OUR REGION. WE SHOULD THUS STILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CATSKILLS...SHIFTING TOWARDS
UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES WITH TIME. IN
REGARDS TO AREAL AVERAGE QPF...EXPECTING ANOTHER THIRD TO HALF
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY ALONE...TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES...EASTERLY 850MB JET BACKS WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...AND IN FACT EVEN NORTH- NORTHWEST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO TAKE MORE OF A CIRCUITOUS ROUTE AS
TIME MARCHES ON...WITH INCREASINGLY CONTINENTAL COMPONENT AT LOWER
LEVELS. SO WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL CONTINUE...ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD LESSEN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER DEGREE ECMWF START TO LET GO OF THE
AREA...BUT NAM IS SLOWER WITH EXIT OF UPPER LOW AND SO HAS
VORTICITY SPOKE PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME I HAVE ELECTED FOR 40-50 POPS ACROSS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR BUT
ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD.

DAMPNESS-CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE SUPPRESS DIURNAL RANGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY LOWER 40S BY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S THURSDAY /MAINLY 50S FRIDAY/.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS LONG SLOG OF AN EVENT...FROM TODAY
/WEDNESDAY/ THROUGH FRIDAY WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGES FROM SEVERAL
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER NY-WYOMING VALLEY
PA...TO BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OR SO IN WESTERN
CATSKILLS-NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR-ITHACA-CORTLAND-OWEGO-BINGHAMTON-
MONTROSE-HONESDALE-MILFORD. SPREAD OUT OVER SO MUCH TIME...WE DO
NOT AT ALL ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. OVERALL...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR XPCTD THRU THE FCST PD. AT
RME...SUGGESTIONS THAT BRIEF PDS OF VFR WILL BE PSBL DUE TO
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR AND DOWNSLOPING DUE TO NE WINDS. LATER
TDA XPCT IFR/MVFR TO BCM RE-ESTABLISHED. ELSEWHERE OVER CNTRL
NY...CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY BLO AT MINS THIS MRNG BEFORE POTNL
IMPRVMNT TO MVFR LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. AT AVP...MVFR XPCTD TO
PREVAIL. BEST CHC FOR -SHRA APPEARS TO BE AT BGM AND AVP EARLY
THIS MRNG...WITH -SHRA BECMG MORE WDPSRD BY EARLY EVENING AS
ENHANCED MSTR MVS IN FROM THE EAST. NNE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING
NRLY 10-15 KTS TDA AND NNW 10-20 KTS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 221100
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
700 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS...COOL AIR...AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
655 AM UPDATE...
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS-SPRINKLES IS NOW DROPPING FROM WESTERN
CATSKILLS ACROSS TWIN TIERS/NEPA. TREND IN HIGH RES MODELS AND
LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS IS FOR A RELATIVE LULL TO OCCUR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS WAVE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH ARRIVES FROM EAST LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. FORECAST ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. STILL SOLID CLOUD
COVER WHICH SOME MAY CONSIDER DREARY...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE
THIS MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE RAIN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY AMPLIFIED DIGGING TROUGH HAS NOW CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW...THE
CENTER OF WHICH IS DESCENDING UPON VIRGINIA...AND IN RESPONSE
CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE OFFSHORE FROM CHESAPEAKE
BAY. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS BECOME STACKED THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH WILL HALT MOVEMENT OF BOTH...LEAVING US STUCK IN THE
MOIST AND COOL NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LARGE SYSTEM FOR A LONG
DURATION.

THROUGH TODAY...IN ADDITION TO A SOLID OVERCAST SKY...WAVES OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PEPPER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BEST
CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF I-81. TO THE WEST...THOUGH GLOOMY...MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.
MOISTURE TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND THUS RAIN AMOUNTS QUITE
LIGHT...MOST PLACES ONLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH EVEN
LIGHTER AMOUNTS TOWARDS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR.

THEN TONIGHT...SOME DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
EASTERLY COMPONENT OF 850MB WIND /AS IN 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
OVER NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THU/ WILL FURTHER INJECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE
INTO THE SYSTEM. THANKFULLY WITH OUR COOL AND FAIRLY STABLE
COLUMN...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STRUGGLE INTO INCREASE
TO RANGE OF THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH BY 12Z
THURSDAY. WEST OF I-81...RAIN AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY JUST
BE A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH...BUT TO THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS CATSKILLS...QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL EASILY
ATTAINABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE ON THE WAY. BY 12Z
THURSDAY...THE FOOTPRINT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
EXPANSIVE...WITH A TRAIN OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO
BERMUDA...NORTHWARD TO NOVA SCOTIA...THEN COILED BACK ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND DOWN THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS.

GIVEN ALL OF THIS MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS...VERY NARROW DIURNAL
RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS...LOWER TO
MID 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
STRONG EASTERLY 850MB JET THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING A WAYS INTO OUR REGION. WE SHOULD THUS STILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CATSKILLS...SHIFTING TOWARDS
UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES WITH TIME. IN
REGARDS TO AREAL AVERAGE QPF...EXPECTING ANOTHER THIRD TO HALF
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY ALONE...TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES...EASTERLY 850MB JET BACKS WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...AND IN FACT EVEN NORTH- NORTHWEST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO TAKE MORE OF A CIRCUITOUS ROUTE AS
TIME MARCHES ON...WITH INCREASINGLY CONTINENTAL COMPONENT AT LOWER
LEVELS. SO WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL CONTINUE...ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD LESSEN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER DEGREE ECMWF START TO LET GO OF THE
AREA...BUT NAM IS SLOWER WITH EXIT OF UPPER LOW AND SO HAS
VORTICITY SPOKE PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME I HAVE ELECTED FOR 40-50 POPS ACROSS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR BUT
ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD.

DAMPNESS-CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE SUPPRESS DIURNAL RANGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY LOWER 40S BY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S THURSDAY /MAINLY 50S FRIDAY/.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS LONG SLOG OF AN EVENT...FROM TODAY
/WEDNESDAY/ THROUGH FRIDAY WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGES FROM SEVERAL
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER NY-WYOMING VALLEY
PA...TO BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OR SO IN WESTERN
CATSKILLS-NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR-ITHACA-CORTLAND-OWEGO-BINGHAMTON-
MONTROSE-HONESDALE-MILFORD. SPREAD OUT OVER SO MUCH TIME...WE DO
NOT AT ALL ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. OVERALL...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR XPCTD THRU THE FCST PD. AT
RME...SUGGESTIONS THAT BRIEF PDS OF VFR WILL BE PSBL DUE TO
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR AND DOWNSLOPING DUE TO NE WINDS. LATER
TDA XPCT IFR/MVFR TO BCM RE-ESTABLISHED. ELSEWHERE OVER CNTRL
NY...CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY BLO AT MINS THIS MRNG BEFORE POTNL
IMPRVMNT TO MVFR LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. AT AVP...MVFR XPCTD TO
PREVAIL. BEST CHC FOR -SHRA APPEARS TO BE AT BGM AND AVP EARLY
THIS MRNG...WITH -SHRA BECMG MORE WDPSRD BY EARLY EVENING AS
ENHANCED MSTR MOVS IN FROM THE EAST. NNE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING
NRLY 10-15 KTS TDA AND NNW 10-20 KTS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 221100
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
700 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS...COOL AIR...AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
655 AM UPDATE...
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS-SPRINKLES IS NOW DROPPING FROM WESTERN
CATSKILLS ACROSS TWIN TIERS/NEPA. TREND IN HIGH RES MODELS AND
LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS IS FOR A RELATIVE LULL TO OCCUR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS WAVE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH ARRIVES FROM EAST LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. FORECAST ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. STILL SOLID CLOUD
COVER WHICH SOME MAY CONSIDER DREARY...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE
THIS MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE RAIN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY AMPLIFIED DIGGING TROUGH HAS NOW CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW...THE
CENTER OF WHICH IS DESCENDING UPON VIRGINIA...AND IN RESPONSE
CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE OFFSHORE FROM CHESAPEAKE
BAY. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS BECOME STACKED THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH WILL HALT MOVEMENT OF BOTH...LEAVING US STUCK IN THE
MOIST AND COOL NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LARGE SYSTEM FOR A LONG
DURATION.

THROUGH TODAY...IN ADDITION TO A SOLID OVERCAST SKY...WAVES OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PEPPER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BEST
CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF I-81. TO THE WEST...THOUGH GLOOMY...MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.
MOISTURE TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND THUS RAIN AMOUNTS QUITE
LIGHT...MOST PLACES ONLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH EVEN
LIGHTER AMOUNTS TOWARDS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR.

THEN TONIGHT...SOME DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
EASTERLY COMPONENT OF 850MB WIND /AS IN 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
OVER NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THU/ WILL FURTHER INJECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE
INTO THE SYSTEM. THANKFULLY WITH OUR COOL AND FAIRLY STABLE
COLUMN...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STRUGGLE INTO INCREASE
TO RANGE OF THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH BY 12Z
THURSDAY. WEST OF I-81...RAIN AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY JUST
BE A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH...BUT TO THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS CATSKILLS...QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL EASILY
ATTAINABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE ON THE WAY. BY 12Z
THURSDAY...THE FOOTPRINT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
EXPANSIVE...WITH A TRAIN OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO
BERMUDA...NORTHWARD TO NOVA SCOTIA...THEN COILED BACK ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND DOWN THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS.

GIVEN ALL OF THIS MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS...VERY NARROW DIURNAL
RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS...LOWER TO
MID 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
STRONG EASTERLY 850MB JET THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING A WAYS INTO OUR REGION. WE SHOULD THUS STILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CATSKILLS...SHIFTING TOWARDS
UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES WITH TIME. IN
REGARDS TO AREAL AVERAGE QPF...EXPECTING ANOTHER THIRD TO HALF
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY ALONE...TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES...EASTERLY 850MB JET BACKS WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...AND IN FACT EVEN NORTH- NORTHWEST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO TAKE MORE OF A CIRCUITOUS ROUTE AS
TIME MARCHES ON...WITH INCREASINGLY CONTINENTAL COMPONENT AT LOWER
LEVELS. SO WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL CONTINUE...ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD LESSEN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER DEGREE ECMWF START TO LET GO OF THE
AREA...BUT NAM IS SLOWER WITH EXIT OF UPPER LOW AND SO HAS
VORTICITY SPOKE PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME I HAVE ELECTED FOR 40-50 POPS ACROSS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR BUT
ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD.

DAMPNESS-CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE SUPPRESS DIURNAL RANGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY LOWER 40S BY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S THURSDAY /MAINLY 50S FRIDAY/.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS LONG SLOG OF AN EVENT...FROM TODAY
/WEDNESDAY/ THROUGH FRIDAY WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGES FROM SEVERAL
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER NY-WYOMING VALLEY
PA...TO BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OR SO IN WESTERN
CATSKILLS-NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR-ITHACA-CORTLAND-OWEGO-BINGHAMTON-
MONTROSE-HONESDALE-MILFORD. SPREAD OUT OVER SO MUCH TIME...WE DO
NOT AT ALL ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. OVERALL...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR XPCTD THRU THE FCST PD. AT
RME...SUGGESTIONS THAT BRIEF PDS OF VFR WILL BE PSBL DUE TO
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR AND DOWNSLOPING DUE TO NE WINDS. LATER
TDA XPCT IFR/MVFR TO BCM RE-ESTABLISHED. ELSEWHERE OVER CNTRL
NY...CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY BLO AT MINS THIS MRNG BEFORE POTNL
IMPRVMNT TO MVFR LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. AT AVP...MVFR XPCTD TO
PREVAIL. BEST CHC FOR -SHRA APPEARS TO BE AT BGM AND AVP EARLY
THIS MRNG...WITH -SHRA BECMG MORE WDPSRD BY EARLY EVENING AS
ENHANCED MSTR MOVS IN FROM THE EAST. NNE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING
NRLY 10-15 KTS TDA AND NNW 10-20 KTS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 221033
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
633 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS...COOL AIR...AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
VERY AMPLIFIED DIGGING TROUGH HAS NOW CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW...THE
CENTER OF WHICH IS DESCENDING UPON VIRGINIA...AND IN RESPONSE
CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE OFFSHORE FROM CHESAPEAKE
BAY. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS BECOME STACKED THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH WILL HALT MOVEMENT OF BOTH...LEAVING US STUCK IN THE
MOIST AND COOL NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LARGE SYSTEM FOR A LONG
DURATION.

THROUGH TODAY...IN ADDITION TO A SOLID OVERCAST SKY...WAVES OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PEPPER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BEST
CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF I-81. TO THE WEST...THOUGH GLOOMY...MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.
MOISTURE TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND THUS RAIN AMOUNTS QUITE
LIGHT...MOST PLACES ONLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH EVEN
LIGHTER AMOUNTS TOWARDS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR.

THEN TONIGHT...SOME DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
EASTERLY COMPONENT OF 850MB WIND /AS IN 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
OVER NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THU/ WILL FURTHER INJECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE
INTO THE SYSTEM. THANKFULLY WITH OUR COOL AND FAIRLY STABLE
COLUMN...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STRUGGLE INTO INCREASE
TO RANGE OF THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH BY 12Z
THURSDAY. WEST OF I-81...RAIN AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY JUST
BE A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH...BUT TO THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS CATSKILLS...QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL EASILY
ATTAINABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE ON THE WAY. BY 12Z
THURSDAY...THE FOOTPRINT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
EXPANSIVE...WITH A TRAIN OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO
BERMUDA...NORTHWARD TO NOVA SCOTIA...THEN COILED BACK ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND DOWN THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS.

GIVEN ALL OF THIS MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS...VERY NARROW DIURNAL
RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS...LOWER TO
MID 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
STRONG EASTERLY 850MB JET THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING A WAYS INTO OUR REGION. WE SHOULD THUS STILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CATSKILLS...SHIFTING TOWARDS
UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES WITH TIME. IN
REGARDS TO AREAL AVERAGE QPF...EXPECTING ANOTHER THIRD TO HALF
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY ALONE...TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES...EASTERLY 850MB JET BACKS WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...AND IN FACT EVEN NORTH- NORTHWEST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO TAKE MORE OF A CIRCUITOUS ROUTE AS
TIME MARCHES ON...WITH INCREASINGLY CONTINENTAL COMPONENT AT LOWER
LEVELS. SO WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL CONTINUE...ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD LESSEN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER DEGREE ECMWF START TO LET GO OF THE
AREA...BUT NAM IS SLOWER WITH EXIT OF UPPER LOW AND SO HAS
VORTICITY SPOKE PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME I HAVE ELECTED FOR 40-50 POPS ACROSS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR BUT
ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD.

DAMPNESS-CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE SUPPRESS DIURNAL RANGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY LOWER 40S BY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S THURSDAY /MAINLY 50S FRIDAY/.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS LONG SLOG OF AN EVENT...FROM TODAY
/WEDNESDAY/ THROUGH FRIDAY WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGES FROM SEVERAL
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER NY-WYOMING VALLEY
PA...TO BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OR SO IN WESTERN
CATSKILLS-NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR-ITHACA-CORTLAND-OWEGO-BINGHAMTON-
MONTROSE-HONESDALE-MILFORD. SPREAD OUT OVER SO MUCH TIME...WE DO
NOT AT ALL ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. OVERALL...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR XPCTD THRU THE FCST PD. AT
RME...SUGGESTIONS THAT BRIEF PDS OF VFR WILL BE PSBL DUE TO
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR AND DOWNSLOPING DUE TO NE WINDS. LATER
TDA XPCT IFR/MVFR TO BCM RE-ESTABLISHED. ELSEWHERE OVER CNTRL
NY...CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY BLO AT MINS THIS MRNG BEFORE POTNL
IMPRVMNT TO MVFR LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. AT AVP...MVFR XPCTD TO
PREVAIL. BEST CHC FOR -SHRA APPEARS TO BE AT BGM AND AVP EARLY
THIS MRNG...WITH -SHRA BECMG MORE WDPSRD BY EARLY EVENING AS
ENHANCED MSTR MOVS IN FROM THE EAST. NNE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING
NRLY 10-15 KTS TDA AND NNW 10-20 KTS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF






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