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000
FXUS61 KBGM 211957
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
257 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NY AND PA STARTING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING AND MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE THURS
NIGHT...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THIS STORM. BUT...
SYNOPTICALLY... GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPR LOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND IT MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
ALONG AND SLIGHTLY E OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND GENERATE
CYCLOGENESIS OVR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KS AND NE. THIS SFC LOW
WILL THEN TRACK NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUES
MORNING A STRONG VORT MAXIMA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPR
TROUGH OVR FAR S TX GENERATING A SECONDARY SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH OVR
E LA. AS THIS OCCURS... THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER THE NORTH WILL BECOME
OCCLUDED.

THE UPPR TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TUES NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST THE SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE
PRIMARY SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA AND
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO GENERATE PRECIP... EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX AND MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO WAA AND ISENTROPHIC LIFT AHEAD THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N AND WEST. A STRONG
LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA LATE TUES MORNING/AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN STRONG WAA AND GUSTY WINDS OVR THE REGION. BY TUES
AFTERNOON THE WAA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND ALL PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
WED NIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWAT
VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE COLDER ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION THURS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY BEHIND
THE FROPA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE VERY COLD AIR WITH IT DUE IT
WHERE IT ORIGINATED. IT IS A PACIFIC AIRMASS NOT AN ARCTIC.
THUS... TEMPS WILL NOT DROP DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM TO BE HEAVY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LTL CHG IN THE OUTLOOK THRU THE TAF PD AS THE LL MOISTURE CONTS TO
BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE PERSISTENT INV. SOME CLRG THAT WAS WELL
FCST BY THE NAM IS NOW FILLING WITH CLDS AS ANY HTG QUICKLY DVLPS
FRESH SC. FCSTD SNDGS SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
NEXT 18 HRS BUT WITH LONG NGT AND LGT WINDS...VERY LTL TO MIX OUT
THE REMAINING MOISTURE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES SHOW A THICK DECK ALL
THE WAY BACK INTO OH.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM










000
FXUS61 KBGM 211957
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
257 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NY AND PA STARTING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING AND MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE THURS
NIGHT...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THIS STORM. BUT...
SYNOPTICALLY... GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPR LOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND IT MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
ALONG AND SLIGHTLY E OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND GENERATE
CYCLOGENESIS OVR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KS AND NE. THIS SFC LOW
WILL THEN TRACK NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUES
MORNING A STRONG VORT MAXIMA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPR
TROUGH OVR FAR S TX GENERATING A SECONDARY SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH OVR
E LA. AS THIS OCCURS... THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER THE NORTH WILL BECOME
OCCLUDED.

THE UPPR TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TUES NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST THE SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE
PRIMARY SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA AND
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO GENERATE PRECIP... EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX AND MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO WAA AND ISENTROPHIC LIFT AHEAD THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N AND WEST. A STRONG
LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA LATE TUES MORNING/AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN STRONG WAA AND GUSTY WINDS OVR THE REGION. BY TUES
AFTERNOON THE WAA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND ALL PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
WED NIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWAT
VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE COLDER ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION THURS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY BEHIND
THE FROPA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE VERY COLD AIR WITH IT DUE IT
WHERE IT ORIGINATED. IT IS A PACIFIC AIRMASS NOT AN ARCTIC.
THUS... TEMPS WILL NOT DROP DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM TO BE HEAVY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LTL CHG IN THE OUTLOOK THRU THE TAF PD AS THE LL MOISTURE CONTS TO
BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE PERSISTENT INV. SOME CLRG THAT WAS WELL
FCST BY THE NAM IS NOW FILLING WITH CLDS AS ANY HTG QUICKLY DVLPS
FRESH SC. FCSTD SNDGS SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
NEXT 18 HRS BUT WITH LONG NGT AND LGT WINDS...VERY LTL TO MIX OUT
THE REMAINING MOISTURE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES SHOW A THICK DECK ALL
THE WAY BACK INTO OH.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM











000
FXUS61 KBGM 211909
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
209 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND A SLOWLY
YIELDING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LIQUID.
FOR SOME LOCATIONS /MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA/ THAT MAY
PRESENT A VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT- EARLY
TUESDAY.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE AREA WITH
THAT FIRST WAVE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...YET NAM AND
ESPECIALLY GFS HAVE VERY LITTLE. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...AND DRY MID LEVELS. A LOT OF IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VIRGA. EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS WILL MEAN
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST THERE DUE TO UPSLOPING...OR AT
LEAST DRIZZLE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE COLD AIR DAMMING VIA EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT END OF THE WAVE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE PRONE TO A VERY LIGHT ICING...POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK
VALLEY-TUG HILL...BUT OF COURSE THAT WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION WHICH ITSELF IS NOT CERTAIN. MIDMORNING TUESDAY
ONWARD...ABOVE FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA AND THUS ONLY RAIN FOR
PRECIP TYPE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY YIELDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM INCREASINGLY MOIST SW-SSW FLOW ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. THUS RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT
AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA
WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW
SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF
LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN
AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LTL CHG IN THE OUTLOOK THRU THE TAF PD AS THE LL MOISTURE CONTS TO
BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE PERSISTENT INV. SOME CLRG THAT WAS WELL
FCST BY THE NAM IS NOW FILLING WITH CLDS AS ANY HTG QUICKLY DVLPS
FRESH SC. FCSTD SNDGS SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
NEXT 18 HRS BUT WITH LONG NGT AND LGT WINDS...VERY LTL TO MIX OUT
THE REMAINING MOISTURE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES SHOW A THICK DECK ALL
THE WAY BACK INTO OH.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 211909
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
209 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND A SLOWLY
YIELDING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LIQUID.
FOR SOME LOCATIONS /MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA/ THAT MAY
PRESENT A VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT- EARLY
TUESDAY.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE AREA WITH
THAT FIRST WAVE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...YET NAM AND
ESPECIALLY GFS HAVE VERY LITTLE. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...AND DRY MID LEVELS. A LOT OF IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VIRGA. EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS WILL MEAN
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST THERE DUE TO UPSLOPING...OR AT
LEAST DRIZZLE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE COLD AIR DAMMING VIA EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT END OF THE WAVE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE PRONE TO A VERY LIGHT ICING...POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK
VALLEY-TUG HILL...BUT OF COURSE THAT WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION WHICH ITSELF IS NOT CERTAIN. MIDMORNING TUESDAY
ONWARD...ABOVE FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA AND THUS ONLY RAIN FOR
PRECIP TYPE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY YIELDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM INCREASINGLY MOIST SW-SSW FLOW ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. THUS RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT
AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA
WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW
SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF
LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN
AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LTL CHG IN THE OUTLOOK THRU THE TAF PD AS THE LL MOISTURE CONTS TO
BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE PERSISTENT INV. SOME CLRG THAT WAS WELL
FCST BY THE NAM IS NOW FILLING WITH CLDS AS ANY HTG QUICKLY DVLPS
FRESH SC. FCSTD SNDGS SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
NEXT 18 HRS BUT WITH LONG NGT AND LGT WINDS...VERY LTL TO MIX OUT
THE REMAINING MOISTURE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES SHOW A THICK DECK ALL
THE WAY BACK INTO OH.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 211748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN SOME AREAS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE DAY 14 IN A ROW. OPTIMISTIC
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM JUST 24 HOURS AGO ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
FOR SUN CHANCES TODAY. 0Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A THIN LAYER
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, WHICH HAS BEEN A
BROKEN RECORD FOR US NOW. AT BEST WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, NOT A TOTAL CLEAR OUT, LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS, EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO DO NOT. A
STRAY FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT OVERALL MOST
WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TODAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW.

MONDAY MAY BE OUR MOST REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, AND THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT ANY LOW CLOUDS TO
OUR NORTH. RIGHT NOW OBS SUPPORT THIS BACK OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. AS OUR MID WEEK STORM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY, HOPEFULLY WE CAN FINALLY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE WE TURN UNSETTLED AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND A SLOWLY
YIELDING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LIQUID.
FOR SOME LOCATIONS /MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA/ THAT MAY
PRESENT A VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT- EARLY
TUESDAY.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE AREA WITH
THAT FIRST WAVE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...YET NAM AND
ESPECIALLY GFS HAVE VERY LITTLE. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...AND DRY MID LEVELS. A LOT OF IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VIRGA. EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS WILL MEAN
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST THERE DUE TO UPSLOPING...OR AT
LEAST DRIZZLE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE COLD AIR DAMMING VIA EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT END OF THE WAVE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE PRONE TO A VERY LIGHT ICING...POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK
VALLEY-TUG HILL...BUT OF COURSE THAT WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION WHICH ITSELF IS NOT CERTAIN. MIDMORNING TUESDAY
ONWARD...ABOVE FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA AND THUS ONLY RAIN FOR
PRECIP TYPE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY YIELDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM INCREASINGLY MOIST SW-SSW FLOW ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. THUS RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LTL CHG IN THE OUTLOOK THRU THE TAF PD AS THE LL MOISTURE CONTS TO
BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE PERSISTENT INV. SOME CLRG THAT WAS WELL
FCST BY THE NAM IS NOW FILLING WITH CLDS AS ANY HTG QUICKLY DVLPS
FRESH SC. FCSTD SNDGS SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
NEXT 18 HRS BUT WITH LONG NGT AND LGT WINDS...VERY LTL TO MIX OUT
THE REMAINING MOISTURE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES SHOW A THICK DECK ALL
THE WAY BACK INTO OH.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 211748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN SOME AREAS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE DAY 14 IN A ROW. OPTIMISTIC
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM JUST 24 HOURS AGO ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
FOR SUN CHANCES TODAY. 0Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A THIN LAYER
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, WHICH HAS BEEN A
BROKEN RECORD FOR US NOW. AT BEST WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, NOT A TOTAL CLEAR OUT, LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS, EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO DO NOT. A
STRAY FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT OVERALL MOST
WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TODAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW.

MONDAY MAY BE OUR MOST REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, AND THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT ANY LOW CLOUDS TO
OUR NORTH. RIGHT NOW OBS SUPPORT THIS BACK OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. AS OUR MID WEEK STORM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY, HOPEFULLY WE CAN FINALLY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE WE TURN UNSETTLED AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND A SLOWLY
YIELDING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LIQUID.
FOR SOME LOCATIONS /MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA/ THAT MAY
PRESENT A VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT- EARLY
TUESDAY.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE AREA WITH
THAT FIRST WAVE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...YET NAM AND
ESPECIALLY GFS HAVE VERY LITTLE. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...AND DRY MID LEVELS. A LOT OF IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VIRGA. EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS WILL MEAN
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST THERE DUE TO UPSLOPING...OR AT
LEAST DRIZZLE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE COLD AIR DAMMING VIA EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT END OF THE WAVE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE PRONE TO A VERY LIGHT ICING...POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK
VALLEY-TUG HILL...BUT OF COURSE THAT WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION WHICH ITSELF IS NOT CERTAIN. MIDMORNING TUESDAY
ONWARD...ABOVE FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA AND THUS ONLY RAIN FOR
PRECIP TYPE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY YIELDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM INCREASINGLY MOIST SW-SSW FLOW ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. THUS RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LTL CHG IN THE OUTLOOK THRU THE TAF PD AS THE LL MOISTURE CONTS TO
BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE PERSISTENT INV. SOME CLRG THAT WAS WELL
FCST BY THE NAM IS NOW FILLING WITH CLDS AS ANY HTG QUICKLY DVLPS
FRESH SC. FCSTD SNDGS SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
NEXT 18 HRS BUT WITH LONG NGT AND LGT WINDS...VERY LTL TO MIX OUT
THE REMAINING MOISTURE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES SHOW A THICK DECK ALL
THE WAY BACK INTO OH.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 211159
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
659 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN SOME AREAS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE DAY 14 IN A ROW. OPTIMISTIC
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM JUST 24 HOURS AGO ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
FOR SUN CHANCES TODAY. 0Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A THIN LAYER
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, WHICH HAS BEEN A
BROKEN RECORD FOR US NOW. AT BEST WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, NOT A TOTAL CLEAR OUT, LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS, EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO DO NOT. A
STRAY FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT OVERALL MOST
WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TODAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW.

MONDAY MAY BE OUR MOST REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, AND THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT ANY LOW CLOUDS TO
OUR NORTH. RIGHT NOW OBS SUPPORT THIS BACK OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. AS OUR MID WEEK STORM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY, HOPEFULLY WE CAN FINALLY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE WE TURN UNSETTLED AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND A SLOWLY
YIELDING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LIQUID.
FOR SOME LOCATIONS /MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA/ THAT MAY
PRESENT A VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT- EARLY
TUESDAY.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE AREA WITH
THAT FIRST WAVE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...YET NAM AND
ESPECIALLY GFS HAVE VERY LITTLE. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...AND DRY MID LEVELS. A LOT OF IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VIRGA. EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS WILL MEAN
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST THERE DUE TO UPSLOPING...OR AT
LEAST DRIZZLE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE COLD AIR DAMMING VIA EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT END OF THE WAVE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE PRONE TO A VERY LIGHT ICING...POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK
VALLEY-TUG HILL...BUT OF COURSE THAT WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION WHICH ITSELF IS NOT CERTAIN. MIDMORNING TUESDAY
ONWARD...ABOVE FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA AND THUS ONLY RAIN FOR
PRECIP TYPE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY YIELDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM INCREASINGLY MOIST SW-SSW FLOW ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. THUS RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FOR WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL TRENDS.
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS EVE...INCLUDING INTO THE
NIGHT...BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO QUITE
WET WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES A GOOD 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF 850MB JET AROUND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WHILE WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGE QPF OF ROUGHLY
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL ON A
LOCALIZED SCALE COULD BE HEAVIER. MODELS STILL DISAGREE A BIT ON
HOW LONG IT TAKES PRECIP TYPE TO CHANGE FROM STEADY RAIN TO
SCATTERED SNOW...BUT TREND IS SLIGHTLY LATER...SO CHRISTMAS DAY
MAY INCLUDE BOTH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INITIALLY BEFORE ALL SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATER IN THE DAY. COVERAGE OF THOSE SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST IN NORTHERN TO CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
FEWER SHOWERS IN TWIN TIERS AND ESPECIALLY TOWARDS WYOMING VALLEY
OF NEPA DUE TO POTENTIAL DRY SLOTTING AS MENTIONED BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OF THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED JUST ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES... AND IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH AN OCCLUDED
SFC LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CANADA... WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THESE TWO FEATURES AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

ALL ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AS STRONG WAA WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
RAIN UNTIL 06Z ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO TRANSITION
RAIN OVER TO SNOW THAN THE GFS. IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO PIN
POINT HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY
AS WE MAY STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT REGION THURSDAY.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE WINDS MAY BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM THIS
STORM ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WED
AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR... RISING INTO
THE LOW 50S. COLDER PACIFIC AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA... RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S ON THURS. FRI AND SAT TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S.

WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS STORM. FOR TRAVEL CONCERNS
PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION WILL KEEP CLOUDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH DRIER AIR MAY MOVE INTO ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KBGM THAT WHILE STILL FAIRLY CLOUDY, OUR DECK MAY
RAISE TO 5KFT OR HIGHER. MVFG CIGS LOOK MOST LIKELY TO PERSIST AT
KBGM AND THROUGH TONIGHT.


WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADUALLY WINDS PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 211159
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
659 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN SOME AREAS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE DAY 14 IN A ROW. OPTIMISTIC
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM JUST 24 HOURS AGO ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
FOR SUN CHANCES TODAY. 0Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A THIN LAYER
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, WHICH HAS BEEN A
BROKEN RECORD FOR US NOW. AT BEST WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, NOT A TOTAL CLEAR OUT, LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS, EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO DO NOT. A
STRAY FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT OVERALL MOST
WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TODAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW.

MONDAY MAY BE OUR MOST REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, AND THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT ANY LOW CLOUDS TO
OUR NORTH. RIGHT NOW OBS SUPPORT THIS BACK OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. AS OUR MID WEEK STORM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY, HOPEFULLY WE CAN FINALLY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE WE TURN UNSETTLED AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND A SLOWLY
YIELDING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LIQUID.
FOR SOME LOCATIONS /MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA/ THAT MAY
PRESENT A VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT- EARLY
TUESDAY.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE AREA WITH
THAT FIRST WAVE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...YET NAM AND
ESPECIALLY GFS HAVE VERY LITTLE. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...AND DRY MID LEVELS. A LOT OF IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VIRGA. EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS WILL MEAN
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST THERE DUE TO UPSLOPING...OR AT
LEAST DRIZZLE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE COLD AIR DAMMING VIA EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT END OF THE WAVE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE PRONE TO A VERY LIGHT ICING...POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK
VALLEY-TUG HILL...BUT OF COURSE THAT WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION WHICH ITSELF IS NOT CERTAIN. MIDMORNING TUESDAY
ONWARD...ABOVE FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA AND THUS ONLY RAIN FOR
PRECIP TYPE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY YIELDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM INCREASINGLY MOIST SW-SSW FLOW ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. THUS RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FOR WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL TRENDS.
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS EVE...INCLUDING INTO THE
NIGHT...BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO QUITE
WET WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES A GOOD 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF 850MB JET AROUND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WHILE WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGE QPF OF ROUGHLY
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL ON A
LOCALIZED SCALE COULD BE HEAVIER. MODELS STILL DISAGREE A BIT ON
HOW LONG IT TAKES PRECIP TYPE TO CHANGE FROM STEADY RAIN TO
SCATTERED SNOW...BUT TREND IS SLIGHTLY LATER...SO CHRISTMAS DAY
MAY INCLUDE BOTH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INITIALLY BEFORE ALL SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATER IN THE DAY. COVERAGE OF THOSE SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST IN NORTHERN TO CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
FEWER SHOWERS IN TWIN TIERS AND ESPECIALLY TOWARDS WYOMING VALLEY
OF NEPA DUE TO POTENTIAL DRY SLOTTING AS MENTIONED BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OF THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED JUST ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES... AND IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH AN OCCLUDED
SFC LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CANADA... WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THESE TWO FEATURES AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

ALL ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AS STRONG WAA WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
RAIN UNTIL 06Z ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO TRANSITION
RAIN OVER TO SNOW THAN THE GFS. IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO PIN
POINT HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY
AS WE MAY STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT REGION THURSDAY.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE WINDS MAY BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM THIS
STORM ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WED
AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR... RISING INTO
THE LOW 50S. COLDER PACIFIC AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA... RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S ON THURS. FRI AND SAT TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S.

WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS STORM. FOR TRAVEL CONCERNS
PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION WILL KEEP CLOUDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH DRIER AIR MAY MOVE INTO ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KBGM THAT WHILE STILL FAIRLY CLOUDY, OUR DECK MAY
RAISE TO 5KFT OR HIGHER. MVFG CIGS LOOK MOST LIKELY TO PERSIST AT
KBGM AND THROUGH TONIGHT.


WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADUALLY WINDS PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 211159
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
659 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN SOME AREAS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE DAY 14 IN A ROW. OPTIMISTIC
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM JUST 24 HOURS AGO ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
FOR SUN CHANCES TODAY. 0Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A THIN LAYER
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, WHICH HAS BEEN A
BROKEN RECORD FOR US NOW. AT BEST WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, NOT A TOTAL CLEAR OUT, LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS, EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO DO NOT. A
STRAY FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT OVERALL MOST
WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TODAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW.

MONDAY MAY BE OUR MOST REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, AND THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT ANY LOW CLOUDS TO
OUR NORTH. RIGHT NOW OBS SUPPORT THIS BACK OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. AS OUR MID WEEK STORM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY, HOPEFULLY WE CAN FINALLY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE WE TURN UNSETTLED AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND A SLOWLY
YIELDING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LIQUID.
FOR SOME LOCATIONS /MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA/ THAT MAY
PRESENT A VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT- EARLY
TUESDAY.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE AREA WITH
THAT FIRST WAVE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...YET NAM AND
ESPECIALLY GFS HAVE VERY LITTLE. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...AND DRY MID LEVELS. A LOT OF IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VIRGA. EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS WILL MEAN
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST THERE DUE TO UPSLOPING...OR AT
LEAST DRIZZLE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE COLD AIR DAMMING VIA EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT END OF THE WAVE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE PRONE TO A VERY LIGHT ICING...POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK
VALLEY-TUG HILL...BUT OF COURSE THAT WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION WHICH ITSELF IS NOT CERTAIN. MIDMORNING TUESDAY
ONWARD...ABOVE FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA AND THUS ONLY RAIN FOR
PRECIP TYPE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY YIELDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM INCREASINGLY MOIST SW-SSW FLOW ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. THUS RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FOR WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL TRENDS.
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS EVE...INCLUDING INTO THE
NIGHT...BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO QUITE
WET WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES A GOOD 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF 850MB JET AROUND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WHILE WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGE QPF OF ROUGHLY
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL ON A
LOCALIZED SCALE COULD BE HEAVIER. MODELS STILL DISAGREE A BIT ON
HOW LONG IT TAKES PRECIP TYPE TO CHANGE FROM STEADY RAIN TO
SCATTERED SNOW...BUT TREND IS SLIGHTLY LATER...SO CHRISTMAS DAY
MAY INCLUDE BOTH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INITIALLY BEFORE ALL SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATER IN THE DAY. COVERAGE OF THOSE SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST IN NORTHERN TO CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
FEWER SHOWERS IN TWIN TIERS AND ESPECIALLY TOWARDS WYOMING VALLEY
OF NEPA DUE TO POTENTIAL DRY SLOTTING AS MENTIONED BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OF THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED JUST ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES... AND IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH AN OCCLUDED
SFC LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CANADA... WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THESE TWO FEATURES AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

ALL ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AS STRONG WAA WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
RAIN UNTIL 06Z ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO TRANSITION
RAIN OVER TO SNOW THAN THE GFS. IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO PIN
POINT HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY
AS WE MAY STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT REGION THURSDAY.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE WINDS MAY BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM THIS
STORM ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WED
AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR... RISING INTO
THE LOW 50S. COLDER PACIFIC AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA... RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S ON THURS. FRI AND SAT TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S.

WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS STORM. FOR TRAVEL CONCERNS
PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION WILL KEEP CLOUDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH DRIER AIR MAY MOVE INTO ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KBGM THAT WHILE STILL FAIRLY CLOUDY, OUR DECK MAY
RAISE TO 5KFT OR HIGHER. MVFG CIGS LOOK MOST LIKELY TO PERSIST AT
KBGM AND THROUGH TONIGHT.


WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADUALLY WINDS PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 210934
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
434 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN SOME AREAS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE DAY 14 IN A ROW. OPTIMISTIC
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM JUST 24 HOURS AGO ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
FOR SUN CHANCES TODAY. 0Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A THIN LAYER
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, WHICH HAS BEEN A
BROKEN RECORD FOR US NOW. AT BEST WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, NOT A TOTAL CLEAR OUT, LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS, EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO DO NOT. A
STRAY FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT OVERALL MOST
WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TODAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW.

MONDAY MAY BE OUR MOST REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, AND THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT ANY LOW CLOUDS TO
OUR NORTH. RIGHT NOW OBS SUPPORT THIS BACK OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. AS OUR MID WEEK STORM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY, HOPEFULLY WE CAN FINALLY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE WE TURN UNSETTLED AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND A SLOWLY
YIELDING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LIQUID.
FOR SOME LOCATIONS /MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA/ THAT MAY
PRESENT A VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT- EARLY
TUESDAY.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE AREA WITH
THAT FIRST WAVE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...YET NAM AND
ESPECIALLY GFS HAVE VERY LITTLE. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...AND DRY MID LEVELS. A LOT OF IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VIRGA. EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS WILL MEAN
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST THERE DUE TO UPSLOPING...OR AT
LEAST DRIZZLE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE COLD AIR DAMMING VIA EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT END OF THE WAVE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE PRONE TO A VERY LIGHT ICING...POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK
VALLEY-TUG HILL...BUT OF COURSE THAT WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION WHICH ITSELF IS NOT CERTAIN. MIDMORNING TUESDAY
ONWARD...ABOVE FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA AND THUS ONLY RAIN FOR
PRECIP TYPE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY YIELDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM INCREASINGLY MOIST SW-SSW FLOW ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. THUS RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FOR WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL TRENDS.
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS EVE...INCLUDING INTO THE
NIGHT...BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO QUITE
WET WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES A GOOD 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF 850MB JET AROUND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WHILE WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGE QPF OF ROUGHLY
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL ON A
LOCALIZED SCALE COULD BE HEAVIER. MODELS STILL DISAGREE A BIT ON
HOW LONG IT TAKES PRECIP TYPE TO CHANGE FROM STEADY RAIN TO
SCATTERED SNOW...BUT TREND IS SLIGHTLY LATER...SO CHRISTMAS DAY
MAY INCLUDE BOTH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INITIALLY BEFORE ALL SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATER IN THE DAY. COVERAGE OF THOSE SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST IN NORTHERN TO CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
FEWER SHOWERS IN TWIN TIERS AND ESPECIALLY TOWARDS WYOMING VALLEY
OF NEPA DUE TO POTENTIAL DRY SLOTTING AS MENTIONED BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OF THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED JUST ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES... AND IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH AN OCCLUDED
SFC LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CANADA... WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THESE TWO FEATURES AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

ALL ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AS STRONG WAA WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
RAIN UNTIL 06Z ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO TRANSITION
RAIN OVER TO SNOW THAN THE GFS. IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO PIN
POINT HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY
AS WE MAY STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT REGION THURSDAY.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE WINDS MAY BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM THIS
STORM ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WED
AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR... RISING INTO
THE LOW 50S. COLDER PACIFIC AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA... RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S ON THURS. FRI AND SAT TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S.

WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS STORM. FOR TRAVEL CONCERNS
PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION WILL KEEP CLOUDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH MIDDAY. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT AT KAVP/KSYR/KRME SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS HANG ON RIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY AT KITH AND KBGM. I DID WANT TO
INDICATE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF IMPROVEMENT TOWARD EVENING ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 210934
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
434 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN SOME AREAS AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE DAY 14 IN A ROW. OPTIMISTIC
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM JUST 24 HOURS AGO ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
FOR SUN CHANCES TODAY. 0Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A THIN LAYER
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, WHICH HAS BEEN A
BROKEN RECORD FOR US NOW. AT BEST WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, NOT A TOTAL CLEAR OUT, LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS, EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO DO NOT. A
STRAY FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT OVERALL MOST
WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TODAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW.

MONDAY MAY BE OUR MOST REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, AND THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT ANY LOW CLOUDS TO
OUR NORTH. RIGHT NOW OBS SUPPORT THIS BACK OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. AS OUR MID WEEK STORM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY, HOPEFULLY WE CAN FINALLY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE WE TURN UNSETTLED AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND A SLOWLY
YIELDING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY LIQUID.
FOR SOME LOCATIONS /MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA/ THAT MAY
PRESENT A VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT- EARLY
TUESDAY.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE AREA WITH
THAT FIRST WAVE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...YET NAM AND
ESPECIALLY GFS HAVE VERY LITTLE. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES...AND DRY MID LEVELS. A LOT OF IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VIRGA. EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS WILL MEAN
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST THERE DUE TO UPSLOPING...OR AT
LEAST DRIZZLE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE COLD AIR DAMMING VIA EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT END OF THE WAVE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE PRONE TO A VERY LIGHT ICING...POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK
VALLEY-TUG HILL...BUT OF COURSE THAT WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION WHICH ITSELF IS NOT CERTAIN. MIDMORNING TUESDAY
ONWARD...ABOVE FREEZING FOR ENTIRE AREA AND THUS ONLY RAIN FOR
PRECIP TYPE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY YIELDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM INCREASINGLY MOIST SW-SSW FLOW ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. THUS RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FOR WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL TRENDS.
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS EVE...INCLUDING INTO THE
NIGHT...BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO QUITE
WET WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES A GOOD 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF 850MB JET AROUND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WHILE WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGE QPF OF ROUGHLY
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL ON A
LOCALIZED SCALE COULD BE HEAVIER. MODELS STILL DISAGREE A BIT ON
HOW LONG IT TAKES PRECIP TYPE TO CHANGE FROM STEADY RAIN TO
SCATTERED SNOW...BUT TREND IS SLIGHTLY LATER...SO CHRISTMAS DAY
MAY INCLUDE BOTH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INITIALLY BEFORE ALL SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATER IN THE DAY. COVERAGE OF THOSE SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL
BE HIGHEST IN NORTHERN TO CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
FEWER SHOWERS IN TWIN TIERS AND ESPECIALLY TOWARDS WYOMING VALLEY
OF NEPA DUE TO POTENTIAL DRY SLOTTING AS MENTIONED BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OF THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED JUST ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES... AND IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH AN OCCLUDED
SFC LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CANADA... WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THESE TWO FEATURES AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

ALL ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AS STRONG WAA WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
RAIN UNTIL 06Z ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO TRANSITION
RAIN OVER TO SNOW THAN THE GFS. IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO PIN
POINT HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY
AS WE MAY STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT REGION THURSDAY.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE WINDS MAY BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM THIS
STORM ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WED
AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR... RISING INTO
THE LOW 50S. COLDER PACIFIC AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA... RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S ON THURS. FRI AND SAT TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S.

WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS STORM. FOR TRAVEL CONCERNS
PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION WILL KEEP CLOUDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH MIDDAY. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT AT KAVP/KSYR/KRME SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS HANG ON RIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY AT KITH AND KBGM. I DID WANT TO
INDICATE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF IMPROVEMENT TOWARD EVENING ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 210853
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
353 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE DAY 14 IN A ROW. OPTIMISTIC
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM JUST 24 HOURS AGO ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC
FOR SUN CHANCES TODAY. 0Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A THIN LAYER
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, WHICH HAS BEEN A
BROKEN RECORD FOR US NOW. AT BEST WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, NOT A TOTAL CLEAR OUT, LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTH. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS, EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO DO NOT. A
STRAY FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT OVERALL MOST
WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AGAIN TODAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT ARE RIGHT NOW.

MONDAY MAY BE OUR MOST REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, AND THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT ANY LOW CLOUDS TO
OUR NORTH. RIGHT NOW OBS SUPPORT THIS BACK OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. AS OUR MID WEEK STORM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY, HOPEFULLY WE CAN FINALLY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE WE TURN UNSETTLED AGAIN.



&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER AND THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SOME SUNSHINE MONDAY OVER OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE DECEMBER MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S DURG THE DAY AND STARTING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE
MORNING.

MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS BRING SOME SORT OF SFC WAVE UP THE COAST FROM
OFF CAPE HATTERAS TO THE DELAMARVA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING IT. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE SUGGESTING
A PRECIP SHIELD TRACKS ACRS NE PA AND SE NY MONDAY NGT AND ERLY
TUE. THE EURO IS ALSO MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT A
LITTLE LATER BRINGING LIGHT QPF TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BTWN 6Z
TUES AND 18Z TUES. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND ONLY HAD VERY LIGHT
QPF...LIKELY DRIZZLE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. THE GFS
COMPLETELY LOSES THIS WAVE AND THE PRECIP IS GENERATED BY WAA/ISEN
LIFT. BUT THE ISENTROPES ON THE GFS ARE SUBSIDING CANCELLING OUT
SOME OF THE LIFT. INDEED HGHT RISES ARE HIGHER ON THE GFS VS EURO.
IN ANY EVENT...ALL MODELS SUGGEST THIS IS A LIGHT QPF EVENT. SO
INTRODUCE SLGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP...HIGHEST POP IN
OUR SE ZONES LOWEST IN NW ZONES OF THE FINGER LAKES MONDAY NGT.
FOR TUESDAY HAVE LOW CHC POPS NW TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY IN THE
SERN ZONES.

PTYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AT THE ONSET. I BASICALLY GO FOR FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE MONDAY NGT/ERLY TUESDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING AT THE ONSET. WILL TRANSITION ALL
PRECIP TO RAIN AS TEMPS EVERYWHERE CLIMB ABV FREEZING TUESDAY.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS ALONG WITH THE HOLIDAY STORM IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
305 PM EST UPDATE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TREND CONTINUES
WITH POTENTIAL LARGE STORM OVER THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OF THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED JUST ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES... AND IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH AN OCCLUDED
SFC LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CANADA... WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THESE TWO FEATURES AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

ALL ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AS STRONG WAA WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
RAIN UNTIL 06Z ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO TRANSITION
RAIN OVER TO SNOW THAN THE GFS. IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO PIN
POINT HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY
AS WE MAY STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT REGION THURSDAY.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE WINDS MAY BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM THIS
STORM ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

TEMPS WED AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
RISING INTO THE LOW 50S. COLDER PACIFIC AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA... RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS
ONLY REACHING THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S ON THURS. FRI AND SAT TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S.

WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS STORM. FOR TRAVEL CONCERNS
PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION WILL KEEP CLOUDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH MIDDAY. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT AT KAVP/KSYR/KRME SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS HANG ON RIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY AT KITH AND KBGM. I DID WANT TO
INDICATE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF IMPROVEMENT TOWARD EVENING ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 210540
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1240 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...
EXCEPT FOR A FEW BREAKS OVER THE FAR NORTH, THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA REMAINS ENSHROUDED UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER. ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER IS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

HAVE MADE A FEW ALTERATIONS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND THE MOST RECENT
MESOSCALE PROGS.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE HEADING INTO THE EVENING.

3 PM UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW CLOUD STRATUS
SHIELD ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF PA AND MOST OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
NY. THERE WAS CLEARING IN THE NRN 1/3 OF NY AT THIS TIME WHICH HAS
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. THE SFC WINDS ARE TURNING TO MORE
NORTH AND EVEN NORTHEASTERLY AS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF CANADA DOWN TO THE NORTHEAST U.S BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH TO MORE SRLY AT THIS TIME
AS THE RDG AXIS SHIFTS EWRD. THIS WILL ADVECT THIS LOW CLOUD
SHIELD BACK FARTHER N TO SOME EXTENT COVERING ONEIDA CO AND OUR
FAR NRN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THIS CLOUD SHIELD WHICH NOW MAKES FOR DAY 13 WITH NO
APPRECIABLE SUN IN OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ONEIDA CO TODAY AND A
FEW BREAKS HERE AND THERE AT TIMES OTHER AREAS.

A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS CLOSE TO 925 MB OR SO
AS PER ACARS DATA FROM SEVERAL FLIGHT PATHS ACRS NY AND PA. THERE
WAS STILL A DECENT AMNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THIS STUBBORN
INVERSION AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE ACARS
DATA HAVING THE INVERSION NEAR 925 MB. SOME SCT FLURRIES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE WEAKENING LL NW FLO PATTERN FROM ITH TO BGM AND
HAVE ADDED TO GRIDS UNTIL ARND 00Z WHEN THE FLOW WEAKENS. LATER
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE LOWER LAKES AND WILL
PROVIDE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WHICH IS
NEAR SATURATION. THIS CUD LEAD TO A SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM
INTRODUCING ICE CRYSTALS INTO THE CLOUDS AND SOME MORE FLURRIES
LATER TONIGHT/ERLY SUNDAY. OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER MAINLY CLOUDY
NIGHT TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DOES OUR AREA CLEAR OUT?
12Z EURO...GFS...AND NAM ALL HAVE VERY WEAK FLOW AT 925 MB AND A
SLOW NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF THE VERY HIGH RH VALUES. SOME
CLEARING IS NOTED FOR NRN PA TO SW NY ON THE EURO AND ACROSS PTNS
OF NE PA AND C NY ON THE GFS WITH THE NAM THE GLOOMIEST KEEPING
THE CLOUDS AS INFERRED BY THE HIGH 925 MB RH OVER OUR REGION. THE
FLO JUST ABV 925MB DOES TURN MORE W-SWRLY SUNDAY WHICH APPARENTLY
ADVECTS IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM SW OF OUR AREA. LOOKING AT THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE...OHIO IS COMPLETELY SOCKED IN NOW WHICH DOES
NOT BODE WELL. HOWEVER...A LL SW FLOW DOWNSLOPES OVER OUR AREA AND
GIVEN HOW THIN THIS CLOUD LAYER IS I CUD SEE BREAKS DEVELOP
SIMILAR TO THE EURO, ESPECIALLY, WHICH HAS A BELIEVABLE PATTERN IN
THE RH VALUES. WILL INTRODUCE SOME CLEARING AS THE DAY WEARS ON
BUT IT SHUD BEGIN CLDY...SO IT MAY AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MANY
AREAS WHICH WOULD BE DAY 14!!

TEMPERATURES AGAIN WON/T GO DOWN AS MUCH AS GUIDC AT NIGHT AND
WON/T BE AS HIGH AS GUIDC IN THE DAY BECAUSE OF THE LL COLD AIR
AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER AND THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SOME SUNSHINE MONDAY OVER OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE DECEMBER MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S DURG THE DAY AND STARTING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE
MORNING.

MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS BRING SOME SORT OF SFC WAVE UP THE COAST FROM
OFF CAPE HATTERAS TO THE DELAMARVA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING IT. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE SUGGESTING
A PRECIP SHIELD TRACKS ACRS NE PA AND SE NY MONDAY NGT AND ERLY
TUE. THE EURO IS ALSO MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT A
LITTLE LATER BRINGING LIGHT QPF TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BTWN 6Z
TUES AND 18Z TUES. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND ONLY HAD VERY LIGHT
QPF...LIKELY DRIZZLE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. THE GFS
COMPLETELY LOSES THIS WAVE AND THE PRECIP IS GENERATED BY WAA/ISEN
LIFT. BUT THE ISENTROPES ON THE GFS ARE SUBSIDING CANCELLING OUT
SOME OF THE LIFT. INDEED HGHT RISES ARE HIGHER ON THE GFS VS EURO.
IN ANY EVENT...ALL MODELS SUGGEST THIS IS A LIGHT QPF EVENT. SO
INTRODUCE SLGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP...HIGHEST POP IN
OUR SE ZONES LOWEST IN NW ZONES OF THE FINGER LAKES MONDAY NGT.
FOR TUESDAY HAVE LOW CHC POPS NW TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY IN THE
SERN ZONES.

PTYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AT THE ONSET. I BASICALLY GO FOR FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE MONDAY NGT/ERLY TUESDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING AT THE ONSET. WILL TRANSITION ALL
PRECIP TO RAIN AS TEMPS EVERYWHERE CLIMB ABV FREEZING TUESDAY.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS ALONG WITH THE HOLIDAY STORM IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
305 PM EST UPDATE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TREND CONTINUES
WITH POTENTIAL LARGE STORM OVER THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OF THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED JUST ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES... AND IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH AN OCCLUDED
SFC LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CANADA... WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THESE TWO FEATURES AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

ALL ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AS STRONG WAA WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
RAIN UNTIL 06Z ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO TRANSITION
RAIN OVER TO SNOW THAN THE GFS. IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO PIN
POINT HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY
AS WE MAY STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT REGION THURSDAY.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE WINDS MAY BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM THIS
STORM ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

TEMPS WED AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
RISING INTO THE LOW 50S. COLDER PACIFIC AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA... RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS
ONLY REACHING THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S ON THURS. FRI AND SAT TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S.

WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS STORM. FOR TRAVEL CONCERNS
PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION WILL KEEP CLOUDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH MIDDAY. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT AT KAVP/KSYR/KRME SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS HANG ON RIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY AT KITH AND KBGM. I DID WANT TO
INDICATE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF IMPROVEMENT TOWARD EVENING ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 210540
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1240 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...
EXCEPT FOR A FEW BREAKS OVER THE FAR NORTH, THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA REMAINS ENSHROUDED UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER. ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER IS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

HAVE MADE A FEW ALTERATIONS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND THE MOST RECENT
MESOSCALE PROGS.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE HEADING INTO THE EVENING.

3 PM UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW CLOUD STRATUS
SHIELD ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF PA AND MOST OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
NY. THERE WAS CLEARING IN THE NRN 1/3 OF NY AT THIS TIME WHICH HAS
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. THE SFC WINDS ARE TURNING TO MORE
NORTH AND EVEN NORTHEASTERLY AS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF CANADA DOWN TO THE NORTHEAST U.S BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH TO MORE SRLY AT THIS TIME
AS THE RDG AXIS SHIFTS EWRD. THIS WILL ADVECT THIS LOW CLOUD
SHIELD BACK FARTHER N TO SOME EXTENT COVERING ONEIDA CO AND OUR
FAR NRN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THIS CLOUD SHIELD WHICH NOW MAKES FOR DAY 13 WITH NO
APPRECIABLE SUN IN OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ONEIDA CO TODAY AND A
FEW BREAKS HERE AND THERE AT TIMES OTHER AREAS.

A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS CLOSE TO 925 MB OR SO
AS PER ACARS DATA FROM SEVERAL FLIGHT PATHS ACRS NY AND PA. THERE
WAS STILL A DECENT AMNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THIS STUBBORN
INVERSION AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE ACARS
DATA HAVING THE INVERSION NEAR 925 MB. SOME SCT FLURRIES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE WEAKENING LL NW FLO PATTERN FROM ITH TO BGM AND
HAVE ADDED TO GRIDS UNTIL ARND 00Z WHEN THE FLOW WEAKENS. LATER
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE LOWER LAKES AND WILL
PROVIDE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WHICH IS
NEAR SATURATION. THIS CUD LEAD TO A SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM
INTRODUCING ICE CRYSTALS INTO THE CLOUDS AND SOME MORE FLURRIES
LATER TONIGHT/ERLY SUNDAY. OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER MAINLY CLOUDY
NIGHT TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DOES OUR AREA CLEAR OUT?
12Z EURO...GFS...AND NAM ALL HAVE VERY WEAK FLOW AT 925 MB AND A
SLOW NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF THE VERY HIGH RH VALUES. SOME
CLEARING IS NOTED FOR NRN PA TO SW NY ON THE EURO AND ACROSS PTNS
OF NE PA AND C NY ON THE GFS WITH THE NAM THE GLOOMIEST KEEPING
THE CLOUDS AS INFERRED BY THE HIGH 925 MB RH OVER OUR REGION. THE
FLO JUST ABV 925MB DOES TURN MORE W-SWRLY SUNDAY WHICH APPARENTLY
ADVECTS IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM SW OF OUR AREA. LOOKING AT THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE...OHIO IS COMPLETELY SOCKED IN NOW WHICH DOES
NOT BODE WELL. HOWEVER...A LL SW FLOW DOWNSLOPES OVER OUR AREA AND
GIVEN HOW THIN THIS CLOUD LAYER IS I CUD SEE BREAKS DEVELOP
SIMILAR TO THE EURO, ESPECIALLY, WHICH HAS A BELIEVABLE PATTERN IN
THE RH VALUES. WILL INTRODUCE SOME CLEARING AS THE DAY WEARS ON
BUT IT SHUD BEGIN CLDY...SO IT MAY AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MANY
AREAS WHICH WOULD BE DAY 14!!

TEMPERATURES AGAIN WON/T GO DOWN AS MUCH AS GUIDC AT NIGHT AND
WON/T BE AS HIGH AS GUIDC IN THE DAY BECAUSE OF THE LL COLD AIR
AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER AND THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SOME SUNSHINE MONDAY OVER OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE DECEMBER MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S DURG THE DAY AND STARTING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE
MORNING.

MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS BRING SOME SORT OF SFC WAVE UP THE COAST FROM
OFF CAPE HATTERAS TO THE DELAMARVA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING IT. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE SUGGESTING
A PRECIP SHIELD TRACKS ACRS NE PA AND SE NY MONDAY NGT AND ERLY
TUE. THE EURO IS ALSO MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT A
LITTLE LATER BRINGING LIGHT QPF TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BTWN 6Z
TUES AND 18Z TUES. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND ONLY HAD VERY LIGHT
QPF...LIKELY DRIZZLE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. THE GFS
COMPLETELY LOSES THIS WAVE AND THE PRECIP IS GENERATED BY WAA/ISEN
LIFT. BUT THE ISENTROPES ON THE GFS ARE SUBSIDING CANCELLING OUT
SOME OF THE LIFT. INDEED HGHT RISES ARE HIGHER ON THE GFS VS EURO.
IN ANY EVENT...ALL MODELS SUGGEST THIS IS A LIGHT QPF EVENT. SO
INTRODUCE SLGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP...HIGHEST POP IN
OUR SE ZONES LOWEST IN NW ZONES OF THE FINGER LAKES MONDAY NGT.
FOR TUESDAY HAVE LOW CHC POPS NW TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY IN THE
SERN ZONES.

PTYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AT THE ONSET. I BASICALLY GO FOR FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE MONDAY NGT/ERLY TUESDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING AT THE ONSET. WILL TRANSITION ALL
PRECIP TO RAIN AS TEMPS EVERYWHERE CLIMB ABV FREEZING TUESDAY.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS ALONG WITH THE HOLIDAY STORM IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
305 PM EST UPDATE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TREND CONTINUES
WITH POTENTIAL LARGE STORM OVER THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OF THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED JUST ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES... AND IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH AN OCCLUDED
SFC LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CANADA... WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THESE TWO FEATURES AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

ALL ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AS STRONG WAA WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
RAIN UNTIL 06Z ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO TRANSITION
RAIN OVER TO SNOW THAN THE GFS. IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO PIN
POINT HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY
AS WE MAY STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT REGION THURSDAY.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE WINDS MAY BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM THIS
STORM ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

TEMPS WED AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
RISING INTO THE LOW 50S. COLDER PACIFIC AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA... RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS
ONLY REACHING THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S ON THURS. FRI AND SAT TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S.

WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS STORM. FOR TRAVEL CONCERNS
PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION WILL KEEP CLOUDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH MIDDAY. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT AT KAVP/KSYR/KRME SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS HANG ON RIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY AT KITH AND KBGM. I DID WANT TO
INDICATE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF IMPROVEMENT TOWARD EVENING ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 202317
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
617 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...
EXCEPT FOR A FEW BREAKS OVER THE FAR NORTH, THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA REMAINS ENSHROUDED UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER. ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER IS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

HAVE MADE A FEW ALTERATIONS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND THE MOST RECENT
MESOSCALE PROGS.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE HEADING INTO THE EVENING.

3 PM UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW CLOUD STRATUS
SHIELD ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF PA AND MOST OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
NY. THERE WAS CLEARING IN THE NRN 1/3 OF NY AT THIS TIME WHICH HAS
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. THE SFC WINDS ARE TURNING TO MORE
NORTH AND EVEN NORTHEASTERLY AS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF CANADA DOWN TO THE NORTHEAST U.S BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH TO MORE SRLY AT THIS TIME
AS THE RDG AXIS SHIFTS EWRD. THIS WILL ADVECT THIS LOW CLOUD
SHIELD BACK FARTHER N TO SOME EXTENT COVERING ONEIDA CO AND OUR
FAR NRN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THIS CLOUD SHIELD WHICH NOW MAKES FOR DAY 13 WITH NO
APPRECIABLE SUN IN OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ONEIDA CO TODAY AND A
FEW BREAKS HERE AND THERE AT TIMES OTHER AREAS.

A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS CLOSE TO 925 MB OR SO
AS PER ACARS DATA FROM SEVERAL FLIGHT PATHS ACRS NY AND PA. THERE
WAS STILL A DECENT AMNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THIS STUBBORN
INVERSION AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE ACARS
DATA HAVING THE INVERSION NEAR 925 MB. SOME SCT FLURRIES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE WEAKENING LL NW FLO PATTERN FROM ITH TO BGM AND
HAVE ADDED TO GRIDS UNTIL ARND 00Z WHEN THE FLOW WEAKENS. LATER
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE LOWER LAKES AND WILL
PROVIDE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WHICH IS
NEAR SATURATION. THIS CUD LEAD TO A SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM
INTRODUCING ICE CRYSTALS INTO THE CLOUDS AND SOME MORE FLURRIES
LATER TONIGHT/ERLY SUNDAY. OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER MAINLY CLOUDY
NIGHT TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DOES OUR AREA CLEAR OUT?
12Z EURO...GFS...AND NAM ALL HAVE VERY WEAK FLOW AT 925 MB AND A
SLOW NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF THE VERY HIGH RH VALUES. SOME
CLEARING IS NOTED FOR NRN PA TO SW NY ON THE EURO AND ACROSS PTNS
OF NE PA AND C NY ON THE GFS WITH THE NAM THE GLOOMIEST KEEPING
THE CLOUDS AS INFERRED BY THE HIGH 925 MB RH OVER OUR REGION. THE
FLO JUST ABV 925MB DOES TURN MORE W-SWRLY SUNDAY WHICH APPARENTLY
ADVECTS IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM SW OF OUR AREA. LOOKING AT THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE...OHIO IS COMPLETELY SOCKED IN NOW WHICH DOES
NOT BODE WELL. HOWEVER...A LL SW FLOW DOWNSLOPES OVER OUR AREA AND
GIVEN HOW THIN THIS CLOUD LAYER IS I CUD SEE BREAKS DEVELOP
SIMILAR TO THE EURO, ESPECIALLY, WHICH HAS A BELIEVEABLE PATTERN IN
THE RH VALUES. WILL INTRODUCE SOME CLEARING AS THE DAY WEARS ON
BUT IT SHUD BEGIN CLDY...SO IT MAY AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MANY
AREAS WHICH WOULD BE DAY 14!!

TEMPERATURES AGAIN WON/T GO DOWN AS MUCH AS GUIDC AT NIGHT AND
WON/T BE AS HIGH AS GUIDC IN THE DAY BECAUSE OF THE LL COLD AIR
AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER AND THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SOME SUNSHINE MONDAY OVER OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE DECEMBER MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S DURG THE DAY AND STARTING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE
MORNING.

MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS BRING SOME SORT OF SFC WAVE UP THE COAST FROM
OFF CAPE HATTERAS TO THE DELAMARVA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING IT. THE NAM IS MOST AGRESSIVE SUGGESTING
A PRECIP SHIELD TRACKS ACRS NE PA AND SE NY MONDAY NGT AND ERLY
TUE. THE EURO IS ALSO MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT A
LITTLE LATER BRINGING LIGHT QPF TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BTWN 6Z
TUES AND 18Z TUES. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND ONLY HAD VERY LIGHT
QPF...LIKELY DRIZZLE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. THE GFS
COMPLETELY LOSES THIS WAVE AND THE PRECIP IS GENERATED BY WAA/ISEN
LIFT. BUT THE ISENTROPES ON THE GFS ARE SUBSIDING CANCELLING OUT
SOME OF THE LIFT. INDEED HGHT RISES ARE HIGHER ON THE GFS VS EURO.
IN ANY EVENT...ALL MODELS SUGGEST THIS IS A LIGHT QPF EVENT. SO
INTRODUCE SLGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP...HIGHEST POP IN
OUR SE ZONES LOWEST IN NW ZONES OF THE FINGER LAKES MONDAY NGT.
FOR TUESDAY HAVE LOW CHC POPS NW TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY IN THE
SERN ZONES.

PTYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AT THE ONSET. I BASICALLY GO FOR FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE MONDAY NGT/ERLY TUESDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING AT THE ONSET. WILL TRANSITION ALL
PRECIP TO RAIN AS TEMPS EVERYWHERE CLIMB ABV FREEZING TUESDAY.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS ALONG WITH THE HOLIDAY STORM IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
305 PM EST UPDATE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TREND CONTINUES
WITH POTENTIAL LARGE STORM OVER THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OF THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED JUST ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES... AND IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH AN OCCLUDED
SFC LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CANADA... WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THESE TWO FEATURES AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

ALL ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AS STRONG WAA WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
RAIN UNTIL 06Z ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO TRANSITION
RAIN OVER TO SNOW THAN THE GFS. IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO PIN
POINT HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY
AS WE MAY STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT REGION THURSDAY.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE WINDS MAY BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM THIS
STORM ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

TEMPS WED AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
RISING INTO THE LOW 50S. COLDER PACIFIC AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA... RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS
ONLY REACHING THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S ON THURS. FRI AND SAT TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S.

WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS STORM. FOR TRAVEL CONCERNS
PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PERSISTENT INVERSION AND A LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH IT
WILL YIELD MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET.

CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN THICK TOMORROW MORNING, THOUGH THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 202317
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
617 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...
EXCEPT FOR A FEW BREAKS OVER THE FAR NORTH, THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA REMAINS ENSHROUDED UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER. ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER IS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

HAVE MADE A FEW ALTERATIONS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND THE MOST RECENT
MESOSCALE PROGS.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE HEADING INTO THE EVENING.

3 PM UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW CLOUD STRATUS
SHIELD ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF PA AND MOST OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
NY. THERE WAS CLEARING IN THE NRN 1/3 OF NY AT THIS TIME WHICH HAS
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. THE SFC WINDS ARE TURNING TO MORE
NORTH AND EVEN NORTHEASTERLY AS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF CANADA DOWN TO THE NORTHEAST U.S BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH TO MORE SRLY AT THIS TIME
AS THE RDG AXIS SHIFTS EWRD. THIS WILL ADVECT THIS LOW CLOUD
SHIELD BACK FARTHER N TO SOME EXTENT COVERING ONEIDA CO AND OUR
FAR NRN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THIS CLOUD SHIELD WHICH NOW MAKES FOR DAY 13 WITH NO
APPRECIABLE SUN IN OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ONEIDA CO TODAY AND A
FEW BREAKS HERE AND THERE AT TIMES OTHER AREAS.

A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS CLOSE TO 925 MB OR SO
AS PER ACARS DATA FROM SEVERAL FLIGHT PATHS ACRS NY AND PA. THERE
WAS STILL A DECENT AMNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THIS STUBBORN
INVERSION AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE ACARS
DATA HAVING THE INVERSION NEAR 925 MB. SOME SCT FLURRIES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE WEAKENING LL NW FLO PATTERN FROM ITH TO BGM AND
HAVE ADDED TO GRIDS UNTIL ARND 00Z WHEN THE FLOW WEAKENS. LATER
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE LOWER LAKES AND WILL
PROVIDE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WHICH IS
NEAR SATURATION. THIS CUD LEAD TO A SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM
INTRODUCING ICE CRYSTALS INTO THE CLOUDS AND SOME MORE FLURRIES
LATER TONIGHT/ERLY SUNDAY. OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER MAINLY CLOUDY
NIGHT TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DOES OUR AREA CLEAR OUT?
12Z EURO...GFS...AND NAM ALL HAVE VERY WEAK FLOW AT 925 MB AND A
SLOW NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF THE VERY HIGH RH VALUES. SOME
CLEARING IS NOTED FOR NRN PA TO SW NY ON THE EURO AND ACROSS PTNS
OF NE PA AND C NY ON THE GFS WITH THE NAM THE GLOOMIEST KEEPING
THE CLOUDS AS INFERRED BY THE HIGH 925 MB RH OVER OUR REGION. THE
FLO JUST ABV 925MB DOES TURN MORE W-SWRLY SUNDAY WHICH APPARENTLY
ADVECTS IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM SW OF OUR AREA. LOOKING AT THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE...OHIO IS COMPLETELY SOCKED IN NOW WHICH DOES
NOT BODE WELL. HOWEVER...A LL SW FLOW DOWNSLOPES OVER OUR AREA AND
GIVEN HOW THIN THIS CLOUD LAYER IS I CUD SEE BREAKS DEVELOP
SIMILAR TO THE EURO, ESPECIALLY, WHICH HAS A BELIEVEABLE PATTERN IN
THE RH VALUES. WILL INTRODUCE SOME CLEARING AS THE DAY WEARS ON
BUT IT SHUD BEGIN CLDY...SO IT MAY AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MANY
AREAS WHICH WOULD BE DAY 14!!

TEMPERATURES AGAIN WON/T GO DOWN AS MUCH AS GUIDC AT NIGHT AND
WON/T BE AS HIGH AS GUIDC IN THE DAY BECAUSE OF THE LL COLD AIR
AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER AND THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SOME SUNSHINE MONDAY OVER OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE DECEMBER MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S DURG THE DAY AND STARTING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE
MORNING.

MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS BRING SOME SORT OF SFC WAVE UP THE COAST FROM
OFF CAPE HATTERAS TO THE DELAMARVA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING IT. THE NAM IS MOST AGRESSIVE SUGGESTING
A PRECIP SHIELD TRACKS ACRS NE PA AND SE NY MONDAY NGT AND ERLY
TUE. THE EURO IS ALSO MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT A
LITTLE LATER BRINGING LIGHT QPF TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BTWN 6Z
TUES AND 18Z TUES. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND ONLY HAD VERY LIGHT
QPF...LIKELY DRIZZLE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. THE GFS
COMPLETELY LOSES THIS WAVE AND THE PRECIP IS GENERATED BY WAA/ISEN
LIFT. BUT THE ISENTROPES ON THE GFS ARE SUBSIDING CANCELLING OUT
SOME OF THE LIFT. INDEED HGHT RISES ARE HIGHER ON THE GFS VS EURO.
IN ANY EVENT...ALL MODELS SUGGEST THIS IS A LIGHT QPF EVENT. SO
INTRODUCE SLGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP...HIGHEST POP IN
OUR SE ZONES LOWEST IN NW ZONES OF THE FINGER LAKES MONDAY NGT.
FOR TUESDAY HAVE LOW CHC POPS NW TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY IN THE
SERN ZONES.

PTYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AT THE ONSET. I BASICALLY GO FOR FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE MONDAY NGT/ERLY TUESDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING AT THE ONSET. WILL TRANSITION ALL
PRECIP TO RAIN AS TEMPS EVERYWHERE CLIMB ABV FREEZING TUESDAY.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS ALONG WITH THE HOLIDAY STORM IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
305 PM EST UPDATE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TREND CONTINUES
WITH POTENTIAL LARGE STORM OVER THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OF THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED JUST ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES... AND IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH AN OCCLUDED
SFC LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CANADA... WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THESE TWO FEATURES AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

ALL ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AS STRONG WAA WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
RAIN UNTIL 06Z ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO TRANSITION
RAIN OVER TO SNOW THAN THE GFS. IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO PIN
POINT HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY
AS WE MAY STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT REGION THURSDAY.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE WINDS MAY BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM THIS
STORM ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

TEMPS WED AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
RISING INTO THE LOW 50S. COLDER PACIFIC AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA... RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS
ONLY REACHING THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S ON THURS. FRI AND SAT TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S.

WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS STORM. FOR TRAVEL CONCERNS
PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PERSISTENT INVERSION AND A LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH IT
WILL YIELD MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET.

CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN THICK TOMORROW MORNING, THOUGH THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 202008
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
308 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND CHILLY WEATHER OVER THE REGION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A COMPLEX STORM
SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INCLUDING CHRISTMAS DAY AND
LEAD TO MAINLY A RAIN STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW CLOUD STRATUS
SHIELD ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF PA AND MOST OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
NY. THERE WAS CLEARING IN THE NRN 1/3 OF NY AT THIS TIME WHICH HAS
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. THE SFC WINDS ARE TURNING TO MORE
NORTH AND EVEN NORTHEASTERLY AS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF CANADA DOWN TO THE NORTHEAST U.S BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH TO MORE SRLY AT THIS TIME
AS THE RDG AXIS SHIFTS EWRD. THIS WILL ADVECT THIS LOW CLOUD
SHIELD BACK FARTHER N TO SOME EXTENT COVERING ONEIDA CO AND OUR
FAR NRN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THIS CLOUD SHIELD WHICH NOW MAKES FOR DAY 13 WITH NO
APPRECIABLE SUN IN OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ONEIDA CO TODAY AND A
FEW BREAKS HERE AND THERE AT TIMES OTHER AREAS.

A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS CLOSE TO 925 MB OR SO
AS PER ACARS DATA FROM SEVERAL FLIGHT PATHS ACRS NY AND PA. THERE
WAS STILL A DECENT AMNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THIS STUBBORN
INVERSION AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE ACARS
DATA HAVING THE INVERSION NEAR 925 MB. SOME SCT FLURRIES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE WEAKENING LL NW FLO PATTERN FROM ITH TO BGM AND
HAVE ADDED TO GRIDS UNTIL ARND 00Z WHEN THE FLOW WEAKENS. LATER
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE LOWER LAKES AND WILL
PROVIDE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WHICH IS
NEAR SATURATION. THIS CUD LEAD TO A SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM
INTRODUCING ICE CRYSTALS INTO THE CLOUDS AND SOME MORE FLURRIES
LATER TONIGHT/ERLY SUNDAY. OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER MAINLY CLOUDY
NIGHT TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DOES OUR AREA CLEAR OUT?
12Z EURO...GFS...AND NAM ALL HAVE VERY WEAK FLOW AT 925 MB AND A
SLOW NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF THE VERY HIGH RH VALUES. SOME
CLEARING IS NOTED FOR NRN PA TO SW NY ON THE EURO AND ACROSS PTNS
OF NE PA AND C NY ON THE GFS WITH THE NAM THE GLOOMIEST KEEPING
THE CLOUDS AS INFERRED BY THE HIGH 925 MB RH OVER OUR REGION. THE
FLO JUST ABV 925MB DOES TURN MORE W-SWRLY SUNDAY WHICH APPARENTLY
ADVECTS IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM SW OF OUR AREA. LOOKING AT THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE...OHIO IS COMPLETELY SOCKED IN NOW WHICH DOES
NOT BODE WELL. HOWEVER...A LL SW FLOW DOWNSLOPES OVER OUR AREA AND
GIVEN HOW THIN THIS CLOUD LAYER IS I CUD SEE BREAKS DEVELOP
SIMILAR TO THE EURO, ESPECIALLY, WHICH HAS A BELIEVEABLE PATTERN IN
THE RH VALUES. WILL INTRODUCE SOME CLEARING AS THE DAY WEARS ON
BUT IT SHUD BEGIN CLDY...SO IT MAY AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MANY
AREAS WHICH WOULD BE DAY 14!!

TEMPERATURES AGAIN WON/T GO DOWN AS MUCH AS GUIDC AT NIGHT AND
WON/T BE AS HIGH AS GUIDC IN THE DAY BECAUSE OF THE LL COLD AIR
AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER AND THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SOME SUNSHINE MONDAY OVER OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE DECEMBER MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S DURG THE DAY AND STARTING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE
MORNING.

MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS BRING SOME SORT OF SFC WAVE UP THE COAST FROM
OFF CAPE HATTERAS TO THE DELAMARVA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING IT. THE NAM IS MOST AGRESSIVE SUGGESTING
A PRECIP SHIELD TRACKS ACRS NE PA AND SE NY MONDAY NGT AND ERLY
TUE. THE EURO IS ALSO MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT A
LITTLE LATER BRINGING LIGHT QPF TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BTWN 6Z
TUES AND 18Z TUES. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND ONLY HAD VERY LIGHT
QPF...LIKELY DRIZZLE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. THE GFS
COMPLETELY LOSES THIS WAVE AND THE PRECIP IS GENERATED BY WAA/ISEN
LIFT. BUT THE ISENTROPES ON THE GFS ARE SUBSIDING CANCELLING OUT
SOME OF THE LIFT. INDEED HGHT RISES ARE HIGHER ON THE GFS VS EURO.
IN ANY EVENT...ALL MODELS SUGGEST THIS IS A LIGHT QPF EVENT. SO
INTRODUCE SLGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP...HIGHEST POP IN
OUR SE ZONES LOWEST IN NW ZONES OF THE FINGER LAKES MONDAY NGT.
FOR TUESDAY HAVE LOW CHC POPS NW TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY IN THE
SERN ZONES.

PTYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AT THE ONSET. I BASICALLY GO FOR FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE MONDAY NGT/ERLY TUESDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING AT THE ONSET. WILL TRANSITION ALL
PRECIP TO RAIN AS TEMPS EVERYWHERE CLIMB ABV FREEZING TUESDAY.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS ALONG WITH THE HOLIDAY STORM IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
305 PM EST UPDATE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TREND CONTINUES
WITH POTENTIAL LARGE STORM OVER THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OF THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED JUST ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES... AND IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH AN OCCLUDED
SFC LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CANADA... WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THESE TWO FEATURES AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

ALL ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AS STRONG WAA WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
RAIN UNTIL 06Z ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO TRANSITION
RAIN OVER TO SNOW THAN THE GFS. IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO PIN
POINT HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY
AS WE MAY STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT REGION THURSDAY.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE WINDS MAY BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM THIS
STORM ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

TEMPS WED AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
RISING INTO THE LOW 50S. COLDER PACIFIC AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA... RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS
ONLY REACHING THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S ON THURS. FRI AND SAT TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S.

WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS STORM. FOR TRAVEL CONCERNS
PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE REGION TODAY
RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. IT
APPEARS THAT THERE ARE SOME WEAK FINGER LAKE SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KITH AND KBGM. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OF
THE DAY IS THE STUBBORN LOW LVL DECK THAT HAVE MANAGED TO LAST FOR
DAYS OVER NY AND PA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS DECK WILL
REMAIN STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN MVFR
CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. KRME MAY SEE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT IS ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE DECK AND THE DECK
APPEARS TO BE BREAKING UP. WILL KEEP CLOSE ATTENTION AND AMD IF
NECESSARY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN TO MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH









000
FXUS61 KBGM 202008
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
308 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND CHILLY WEATHER OVER THE REGION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A COMPLEX STORM
SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INCLUDING CHRISTMAS DAY AND
LEAD TO MAINLY A RAIN STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW CLOUD STRATUS
SHIELD ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF PA AND MOST OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
NY. THERE WAS CLEARING IN THE NRN 1/3 OF NY AT THIS TIME WHICH HAS
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. THE SFC WINDS ARE TURNING TO MORE
NORTH AND EVEN NORTHEASTERLY AS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF CANADA DOWN TO THE NORTHEAST U.S BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH TO MORE SRLY AT THIS TIME
AS THE RDG AXIS SHIFTS EWRD. THIS WILL ADVECT THIS LOW CLOUD
SHIELD BACK FARTHER N TO SOME EXTENT COVERING ONEIDA CO AND OUR
FAR NRN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THIS CLOUD SHIELD WHICH NOW MAKES FOR DAY 13 WITH NO
APPRECIABLE SUN IN OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ONEIDA CO TODAY AND A
FEW BREAKS HERE AND THERE AT TIMES OTHER AREAS.

A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS CLOSE TO 925 MB OR SO
AS PER ACARS DATA FROM SEVERAL FLIGHT PATHS ACRS NY AND PA. THERE
WAS STILL A DECENT AMNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THIS STUBBORN
INVERSION AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE ACARS
DATA HAVING THE INVERSION NEAR 925 MB. SOME SCT FLURRIES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE WEAKENING LL NW FLO PATTERN FROM ITH TO BGM AND
HAVE ADDED TO GRIDS UNTIL ARND 00Z WHEN THE FLOW WEAKENS. LATER
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE LOWER LAKES AND WILL
PROVIDE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WHICH IS
NEAR SATURATION. THIS CUD LEAD TO A SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM
INTRODUCING ICE CRYSTALS INTO THE CLOUDS AND SOME MORE FLURRIES
LATER TONIGHT/ERLY SUNDAY. OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER MAINLY CLOUDY
NIGHT TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DOES OUR AREA CLEAR OUT?
12Z EURO...GFS...AND NAM ALL HAVE VERY WEAK FLOW AT 925 MB AND A
SLOW NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF THE VERY HIGH RH VALUES. SOME
CLEARING IS NOTED FOR NRN PA TO SW NY ON THE EURO AND ACROSS PTNS
OF NE PA AND C NY ON THE GFS WITH THE NAM THE GLOOMIEST KEEPING
THE CLOUDS AS INFERRED BY THE HIGH 925 MB RH OVER OUR REGION. THE
FLO JUST ABV 925MB DOES TURN MORE W-SWRLY SUNDAY WHICH APPARENTLY
ADVECTS IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM SW OF OUR AREA. LOOKING AT THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE...OHIO IS COMPLETELY SOCKED IN NOW WHICH DOES
NOT BODE WELL. HOWEVER...A LL SW FLOW DOWNSLOPES OVER OUR AREA AND
GIVEN HOW THIN THIS CLOUD LAYER IS I CUD SEE BREAKS DEVELOP
SIMILAR TO THE EURO, ESPECIALLY, WHICH HAS A BELIEVEABLE PATTERN IN
THE RH VALUES. WILL INTRODUCE SOME CLEARING AS THE DAY WEARS ON
BUT IT SHUD BEGIN CLDY...SO IT MAY AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MANY
AREAS WHICH WOULD BE DAY 14!!

TEMPERATURES AGAIN WON/T GO DOWN AS MUCH AS GUIDC AT NIGHT AND
WON/T BE AS HIGH AS GUIDC IN THE DAY BECAUSE OF THE LL COLD AIR
AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER AND THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SOME SUNSHINE MONDAY OVER OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE DECEMBER MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S DURG THE DAY AND STARTING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE
MORNING.

MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS BRING SOME SORT OF SFC WAVE UP THE COAST FROM
OFF CAPE HATTERAS TO THE DELAMARVA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING IT. THE NAM IS MOST AGRESSIVE SUGGESTING
A PRECIP SHIELD TRACKS ACRS NE PA AND SE NY MONDAY NGT AND ERLY
TUE. THE EURO IS ALSO MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT A
LITTLE LATER BRINGING LIGHT QPF TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BTWN 6Z
TUES AND 18Z TUES. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND ONLY HAD VERY LIGHT
QPF...LIKELY DRIZZLE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. THE GFS
COMPLETELY LOSES THIS WAVE AND THE PRECIP IS GENERATED BY WAA/ISEN
LIFT. BUT THE ISENTROPES ON THE GFS ARE SUBSIDING CANCELLING OUT
SOME OF THE LIFT. INDEED HGHT RISES ARE HIGHER ON THE GFS VS EURO.
IN ANY EVENT...ALL MODELS SUGGEST THIS IS A LIGHT QPF EVENT. SO
INTRODUCE SLGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP...HIGHEST POP IN
OUR SE ZONES LOWEST IN NW ZONES OF THE FINGER LAKES MONDAY NGT.
FOR TUESDAY HAVE LOW CHC POPS NW TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY IN THE
SERN ZONES.

PTYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AT THE ONSET. I BASICALLY GO FOR FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE MONDAY NGT/ERLY TUESDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING AT THE ONSET. WILL TRANSITION ALL
PRECIP TO RAIN AS TEMPS EVERYWHERE CLIMB ABV FREEZING TUESDAY.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS ALONG WITH THE HOLIDAY STORM IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
305 PM EST UPDATE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TREND CONTINUES
WITH POTENTIAL LARGE STORM OVER THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OF THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED JUST ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES... AND IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH AN OCCLUDED
SFC LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CANADA... WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THESE TWO FEATURES AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

ALL ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AS STRONG WAA WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
RAIN UNTIL 06Z ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO TRANSITION
RAIN OVER TO SNOW THAN THE GFS. IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO PIN
POINT HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY
AS WE MAY STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT REGION THURSDAY.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE WINDS MAY BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM THIS
STORM ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

TEMPS WED AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
RISING INTO THE LOW 50S. COLDER PACIFIC AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA... RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS
ONLY REACHING THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S ON THURS. FRI AND SAT TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S.

WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS STORM. FOR TRAVEL CONCERNS
PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE REGION TODAY
RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. IT
APPEARS THAT THERE ARE SOME WEAK FINGER LAKE SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KITH AND KBGM. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OF
THE DAY IS THE STUBBORN LOW LVL DECK THAT HAVE MANAGED TO LAST FOR
DAYS OVER NY AND PA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS DECK WILL
REMAIN STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN MVFR
CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. KRME MAY SEE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT IS ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE DECK AND THE DECK
APPEARS TO BE BREAKING UP. WILL KEEP CLOSE ATTENTION AND AMD IF
NECESSARY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN TO MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 201918
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
218 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND CHILLY WEATHER OVER THE REGION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A COMPLEX STORM
SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INCLUDING CHRISTMAS DAY AND
LEAD TO MAINLY A RAIN STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW CLOUD STRATUS
SHIELD ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF PA AND MOST OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
NY. THERE WAS CLEARING IN THE NRN 1/3 OF NY AT THIS TIME WHICH HAS
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. THE SFC WINDS ARE TURNING TO MORE
NORTH AND EVEN NORTHEASTERLY AS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF CANADA DOWN TO THE NORTHEAST U.S BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH TO MORE SRLY AT THIS TIME
AS THE RDG AXIS SHIFTS EWRD. THIS WILL ADVECT THIS LOW CLOUD
SHIELD BACK FARTHER N TO SOME EXTENT COVERING ONEIDA CO AND OUR
FAR NRN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THIS CLOUD SHIELD WHICH NOW MAKES FOR DAY 13 WITH NO
APPRECIABLE SUN IN OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ONEIDA CO TODAY AND A
FEW BREAKS HERE AND THERE AT TIMES OTHER AREAS.

A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS CLOSE TO 925 MB OR SO
AS PER ACARS DATA FROM SEVERAL FLIGHT PATHS ACRS NY AND PA. THERE
WAS STILL A DECENT AMNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THIS STUBBORN
INVERSION AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE ACARS
DATA HAVING THE INVERSION NEAR 925 MB. SOME SCT FLURRIES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE WEAKENING LL NW FLO PATTERN FROM ITH TO BGM AND
HAVE ADDED TO GRIDS UNTIL ARND 00Z WHEN THE FLOW WEAKENS. LATER
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE LOWER LAKES AND WILL
PROVIDE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WHICH IS
NEAR SATURATION. THIS CUD LEAD TO A SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM
INTRODUCING ICE CRYSTALS INTO THE CLOUDS AND SOME MORE FLURRIES
LATER TONIGHT/ERLY SUNDAY. OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER MAINLY CLOUDY
NIGHT TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DOES OUR AREA CLEAR OUT?
12Z EURO...GFS...AND NAM ALL HAVE VERY WEAK FLOW AT 925 MB AND A
SLOW NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF THE VERY HIGH RH VALUES. SOME
CLEARING IS NOTED FOR NRN PA TO SW NY ON THE EURO AND ACROSS PTNS
OF NE PA AND C NY ON THE GFS WITH THE NAM THE GLOOMIEST KEEPING
THE CLOUDS AS INFERRED BY THE HIGH 925 MB RH OVER OUR REGION. THE
FLO JUST ABV 925MB DOES TURN MORE W-SWRLY SUNDAY WHICH APPARENTLY
ADVECTS IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM SW OF OUR AREA. LOOKING AT THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE...OHIO IS COMPLETELY SOCKED IN NOW WHICH DOES
NOT BODE WELL. HOWEVER...A LL SW FLOW DOWNSLOPES OVER OUR AREA AND
GIVEN HOW THIN THIS CLOUD LAYER IS I CUD SEE BREAKS DEVELOP
SIMILAR TO THE EURO, ESPECIALLY, WHICH HAS A BELIEVEABLE PATTERN IN
THE RH VALUES. WILL INTRODUCE SOME CLEARING AS THE DAY WEARS ON
BUT IT SHUD BEGIN CLDY...SO IT MAY AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MANY
AREAS WHICH WOULD BE DAY 14!!

TEMPERATURES AGAIN WON/T GO DOWN AS MUCH AS GUIDC AT NIGHT AND
WON/T BE AS HIGH AS GUIDC IN THE DAY BECAUSE OF THE LL COLD AIR
AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER AND THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SOME SUNSHINE MONDAY OVER OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE DECEMBER MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S DURG THE DAY AND STARTING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE
MORNING.

MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS BRING SOME SORT OF SFC WAVE UP THE COAST FROM
OFF CAPE HATTERAS TO THE DELAMARVA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING IT. THE NAM IS MOST AGRESSIVE SUGGESTING
A PRECIP SHIELD TRACKS ACRS NE PA AND SE NY MONDAY NGT AND ERLY
TUE. THE EURO IS ALSO MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT A
LITTLE LATER BRINGING LIGHT QPF TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BTWN 6Z
TUES AND 18Z TUES. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND ONLY HAD VERY LIGHT
QPF...LIKELY DRIZZLE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. THE GFS
COMPLETELY LOSES THIS WAVE AND THE PRECIP IS GENERATED BY WAA/ISEN
LIFT. BUT THE ISENTROPES ON THE GFS ARE SUBSIDING CANCELLING OUT
SOME OF THE LIFT. INDEED HGHT RISES ARE HIGHER ON THE GFS VS EURO.
IN ANY EVENT...ALL MODELS SUGGEST THIS IS A LIGHT QPF EVENT. SO
INTRODUCE SLGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP...HIGHEST POP IN
OUR SE ZONES LOWEST IN NW ZONES OF THE FINGER LAKES MONDAY NGT.
FOR TUESDAY HAVE LOW CHC POPS NW TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY IN THE
SERN ZONES.

PTYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AT THE ONSET. I BASICALLY GO FOR FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE MONDAY NGT/ERLY TUESDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING AT THE ONSET. WILL TRANSITION ALL
PRECIP TO RAIN AS TEMPS EVERYWHERE CLIMB ABV FREEZING TUESDAY.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS ALONG WITH THE HOLIDAY STORM IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR TWEEKS, OTHERWISE
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE 0Z GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ARE MUCH LOWER THAN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. LOWERED POPS AND
QPF ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ON MONDAY
EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS
RIGHT NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP
MAY SHUT RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND
OCCLUDED FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE REGION TODAY
RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. IT
APPEARS THAT THERE ARE SOME WEAK FINGER LAKE SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KITH AND KBGM. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OF
THE DAY IS THE STUBBORN LOW LVL DECK THAT HAVE MANAGED TO LAST FOR
DAYS OVER NY AND PA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS DECK WILL
REMAIN STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN MVFR
CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. KRME MAY SEE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT IS ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE DECK AND THE DECK
APPEARS TO BE BREAKING UP. WILL KEEP CLOSE ATTENTION AND AMD IF
NECESSARY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN TO MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...HEDEN/JAB
AVIATION...KAH







000
FXUS61 KBGM 201918
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
218 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND CHILLY WEATHER OVER THE REGION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A COMPLEX STORM
SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INCLUDING CHRISTMAS DAY AND
LEAD TO MAINLY A RAIN STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW CLOUD STRATUS
SHIELD ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF PA AND MOST OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
NY. THERE WAS CLEARING IN THE NRN 1/3 OF NY AT THIS TIME WHICH HAS
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. THE SFC WINDS ARE TURNING TO MORE
NORTH AND EVEN NORTHEASTERLY AS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF CANADA DOWN TO THE NORTHEAST U.S BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH TO MORE SRLY AT THIS TIME
AS THE RDG AXIS SHIFTS EWRD. THIS WILL ADVECT THIS LOW CLOUD
SHIELD BACK FARTHER N TO SOME EXTENT COVERING ONEIDA CO AND OUR
FAR NRN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THIS CLOUD SHIELD WHICH NOW MAKES FOR DAY 13 WITH NO
APPRECIABLE SUN IN OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ONEIDA CO TODAY AND A
FEW BREAKS HERE AND THERE AT TIMES OTHER AREAS.

A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS CLOSE TO 925 MB OR SO
AS PER ACARS DATA FROM SEVERAL FLIGHT PATHS ACRS NY AND PA. THERE
WAS STILL A DECENT AMNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THIS STUBBORN
INVERSION AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE ACARS
DATA HAVING THE INVERSION NEAR 925 MB. SOME SCT FLURRIES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE WEAKENING LL NW FLO PATTERN FROM ITH TO BGM AND
HAVE ADDED TO GRIDS UNTIL ARND 00Z WHEN THE FLOW WEAKENS. LATER
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE LOWER LAKES AND WILL
PROVIDE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WHICH IS
NEAR SATURATION. THIS CUD LEAD TO A SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM
INTRODUCING ICE CRYSTALS INTO THE CLOUDS AND SOME MORE FLURRIES
LATER TONIGHT/ERLY SUNDAY. OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER MAINLY CLOUDY
NIGHT TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DOES OUR AREA CLEAR OUT?
12Z EURO...GFS...AND NAM ALL HAVE VERY WEAK FLOW AT 925 MB AND A
SLOW NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF THE VERY HIGH RH VALUES. SOME
CLEARING IS NOTED FOR NRN PA TO SW NY ON THE EURO AND ACROSS PTNS
OF NE PA AND C NY ON THE GFS WITH THE NAM THE GLOOMIEST KEEPING
THE CLOUDS AS INFERRED BY THE HIGH 925 MB RH OVER OUR REGION. THE
FLO JUST ABV 925MB DOES TURN MORE W-SWRLY SUNDAY WHICH APPARENTLY
ADVECTS IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM SW OF OUR AREA. LOOKING AT THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE...OHIO IS COMPLETELY SOCKED IN NOW WHICH DOES
NOT BODE WELL. HOWEVER...A LL SW FLOW DOWNSLOPES OVER OUR AREA AND
GIVEN HOW THIN THIS CLOUD LAYER IS I CUD SEE BREAKS DEVELOP
SIMILAR TO THE EURO, ESPECIALLY, WHICH HAS A BELIEVEABLE PATTERN IN
THE RH VALUES. WILL INTRODUCE SOME CLEARING AS THE DAY WEARS ON
BUT IT SHUD BEGIN CLDY...SO IT MAY AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MANY
AREAS WHICH WOULD BE DAY 14!!

TEMPERATURES AGAIN WON/T GO DOWN AS MUCH AS GUIDC AT NIGHT AND
WON/T BE AS HIGH AS GUIDC IN THE DAY BECAUSE OF THE LL COLD AIR
AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER AND THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SOME SUNSHINE MONDAY OVER OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE DECEMBER MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S DURG THE DAY AND STARTING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE
MORNING.

MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS BRING SOME SORT OF SFC WAVE UP THE COAST FROM
OFF CAPE HATTERAS TO THE DELAMARVA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING IT. THE NAM IS MOST AGRESSIVE SUGGESTING
A PRECIP SHIELD TRACKS ACRS NE PA AND SE NY MONDAY NGT AND ERLY
TUE. THE EURO IS ALSO MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT A
LITTLE LATER BRINGING LIGHT QPF TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BTWN 6Z
TUES AND 18Z TUES. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND ONLY HAD VERY LIGHT
QPF...LIKELY DRIZZLE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. THE GFS
COMPLETELY LOSES THIS WAVE AND THE PRECIP IS GENERATED BY WAA/ISEN
LIFT. BUT THE ISENTROPES ON THE GFS ARE SUBSIDING CANCELLING OUT
SOME OF THE LIFT. INDEED HGHT RISES ARE HIGHER ON THE GFS VS EURO.
IN ANY EVENT...ALL MODELS SUGGEST THIS IS A LIGHT QPF EVENT. SO
INTRODUCE SLGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP...HIGHEST POP IN
OUR SE ZONES LOWEST IN NW ZONES OF THE FINGER LAKES MONDAY NGT.
FOR TUESDAY HAVE LOW CHC POPS NW TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY IN THE
SERN ZONES.

PTYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AT THE ONSET. I BASICALLY GO FOR FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE MONDAY NGT/ERLY TUESDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING AT THE ONSET. WILL TRANSITION ALL
PRECIP TO RAIN AS TEMPS EVERYWHERE CLIMB ABV FREEZING TUESDAY.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS ALONG WITH THE HOLIDAY STORM IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR TWEEKS, OTHERWISE
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE 0Z GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ARE MUCH LOWER THAN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. LOWERED POPS AND
QPF ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ON MONDAY
EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS
RIGHT NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP
MAY SHUT RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND
OCCLUDED FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE REGION TODAY
RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. IT
APPEARS THAT THERE ARE SOME WEAK FINGER LAKE SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KITH AND KBGM. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OF
THE DAY IS THE STUBBORN LOW LVL DECK THAT HAVE MANAGED TO LAST FOR
DAYS OVER NY AND PA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS DECK WILL
REMAIN STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN MVFR
CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. KRME MAY SEE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT IS ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE DECK AND THE DECK
APPEARS TO BE BREAKING UP. WILL KEEP CLOSE ATTENTION AND AMD IF
NECESSARY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN TO MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...HEDEN/JAB
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 201747
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1247 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON.
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. WARMER AND RAINY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE 11.9 MINUS 3.9 MICRON
IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WITH A LITTLE CLEARING IN NW
ONEIDA COUNTY NY AND A FEW SMALLER BREAKS HERE AND THERE BUT THIS
LOW CLOUD DECK REMAINS ENTRENCHED BASED ON THE SATELLITE LOOPS. ACARS
DATA AND THE 12Z ROABS FROM BUF AND ALY ALL SHOW A SHARP INVERSION
BETWEEN 950 AND 900 MB ACRS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THIS SHARP INVERSION. THE FLOW
UP THRU THE INVERSION LAYER WAS WEAKENING FROM THE NORTH AS OF 12Z
THIS MORNING. AS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC IT WILL
EXTEND DOWN TO THE SFC AND IT IS NEARLY BAROTROPIC. HENCE THE FLOW
AT 925 MB WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE INVERSION LAYER AND WHERE
SATURATION IS OBSERVED TURNS FROM LIGHT NORTHERLY TO CALM BY
AFTERNOON TO SRLY BY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA UNDER WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. HI RESOLUTION
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR...RAP AND NAM12 SUGGEST THAT
THE LO CLOUDS REMAIN CLOSE TO WHERE THEY ARE NOW AND THEN ADVECT
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. OUR LOCAL WRF SUGGESTS ENUF INSOLATION
ALLOWS FOR EVEN MORE BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME INSOLATION THIS
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO SOME BREAKS...BUT BY TONIGHT THIS ENDS
AND THE LIGHT SRLY FLOW LOOKS TO SOCK IN THE ENTIRE AREA AGAIN.
WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE BREAKS
AND FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES THRU TONIGHT.

BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...THE DIURNAL TRENDS
WILL BE SMALL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE SINCE WE ARE BASICALLY AT THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR. TWEAKED GRIDS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
STILL QUIET. THE BIGGEST NEWS OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS
THE LIKELY APPEARANCE OF SUNSHINE WHICH HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO COME
BY LATELY.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A LAYER OF CLOUDS WITHIN
10-25 KFT AGL. SOME STRATOCUMULUS ALSO STILL LINGERING IN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY INITIALLY AS WELL. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL EXIT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...REVEALING WHAT WILL BE FOR MANY THE FIRST
SUNSHINE IN OVER A WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY...MAINLY 30S. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME HIGH THIN
CLOUDS MAY TRY TO MOVE IN TOWARDS DAWN. OVERALL THOUGH MAINLY
CLEAR WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING REALIZING LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR TWEEKS, OTHERWISE
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE 0Z GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ARE MUCH LOWER THAN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. LOWERED POPS AND
QPF ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ON MONDAY
EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS
RIGHT NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP
MAY SHUT RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND
OCCLUDED FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE REGION TODAY
RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. IT
APPEARS THAT THERE ARE SOME WEAK FINGER LAKE SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KITH AND KBGM. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OF
THE DAY IS THE STUBBORN LOW LVL DECK THAT HAVE MANAGED TO LAST FOR
DAYS OVER NY AND PA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS DECK WILL
REMAIN STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN MVFR
CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. KRME MAY SEE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT IS ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE DECK AND THE DECK
APPEARS TO BE BREAKING UP. WILL KEEP CLOSE ATTENTION AND AMD IF
NECESSARY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN TO MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...HEDEN/JAB
AVIATION...KAH









000
FXUS61 KBGM 201747
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1247 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON.
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. WARMER AND RAINY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE 11.9 MINUS 3.9 MICRON
IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WITH A LITTLE CLEARING IN NW
ONEIDA COUNTY NY AND A FEW SMALLER BREAKS HERE AND THERE BUT THIS
LOW CLOUD DECK REMAINS ENTRENCHED BASED ON THE SATELLITE LOOPS. ACARS
DATA AND THE 12Z ROABS FROM BUF AND ALY ALL SHOW A SHARP INVERSION
BETWEEN 950 AND 900 MB ACRS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THIS SHARP INVERSION. THE FLOW
UP THRU THE INVERSION LAYER WAS WEAKENING FROM THE NORTH AS OF 12Z
THIS MORNING. AS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC IT WILL
EXTEND DOWN TO THE SFC AND IT IS NEARLY BAROTROPIC. HENCE THE FLOW
AT 925 MB WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE INVERSION LAYER AND WHERE
SATURATION IS OBSERVED TURNS FROM LIGHT NORTHERLY TO CALM BY
AFTERNOON TO SRLY BY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA UNDER WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. HI RESOLUTION
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR...RAP AND NAM12 SUGGEST THAT
THE LO CLOUDS REMAIN CLOSE TO WHERE THEY ARE NOW AND THEN ADVECT
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. OUR LOCAL WRF SUGGESTS ENUF INSOLATION
ALLOWS FOR EVEN MORE BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME INSOLATION THIS
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO SOME BREAKS...BUT BY TONIGHT THIS ENDS
AND THE LIGHT SRLY FLOW LOOKS TO SOCK IN THE ENTIRE AREA AGAIN.
WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE BREAKS
AND FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES THRU TONIGHT.

BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...THE DIURNAL TRENDS
WILL BE SMALL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE SINCE WE ARE BASICALLY AT THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR. TWEAKED GRIDS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
STILL QUIET. THE BIGGEST NEWS OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS
THE LIKELY APPEARANCE OF SUNSHINE WHICH HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO COME
BY LATELY.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A LAYER OF CLOUDS WITHIN
10-25 KFT AGL. SOME STRATOCUMULUS ALSO STILL LINGERING IN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY INITIALLY AS WELL. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL EXIT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...REVEALING WHAT WILL BE FOR MANY THE FIRST
SUNSHINE IN OVER A WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY...MAINLY 30S. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME HIGH THIN
CLOUDS MAY TRY TO MOVE IN TOWARDS DAWN. OVERALL THOUGH MAINLY
CLEAR WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING REALIZING LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR TWEEKS, OTHERWISE
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE 0Z GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ARE MUCH LOWER THAN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. LOWERED POPS AND
QPF ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ON MONDAY
EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS
RIGHT NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP
MAY SHUT RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND
OCCLUDED FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE REGION TODAY
RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. IT
APPEARS THAT THERE ARE SOME WEAK FINGER LAKE SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KITH AND KBGM. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OF
THE DAY IS THE STUBBORN LOW LVL DECK THAT HAVE MANAGED TO LAST FOR
DAYS OVER NY AND PA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS DECK WILL
REMAIN STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN MVFR
CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. KRME MAY SEE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT IS ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE DECK AND THE DECK
APPEARS TO BE BREAKING UP. WILL KEEP CLOSE ATTENTION AND AMD IF
NECESSARY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN TO MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...HEDEN/JAB
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 201454
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
954 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON.
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. WARMER AND RAINY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE 11.9 MINUS 3.9 MICRON
IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WITH A LITTLE CLEARING IN NW
ONEIDA COUNTY NY AND A FEW SMALLER BREAKS HERE AND THERE BUT THIS
LOW CLOUD DECK REMAINS ENTRENCHED BASED ON THE SATELLITE LOOPS. ACARS
DATA AND THE 12Z ROABS FROM BUF AND ALY ALL SHOW A SHARP INVERSION
BETWEEN 950 AND 900 MB ACRS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THIS SHARP INVERSION. THE FLOW
UP THRU THE INVERSION LAYER WAS WEAKENING FROM THE NORTH AS OF 12Z
THIS MORNING. AS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC IT WILL
EXTEND DOWN TO THE SFC AND IT IS NEARLY BAROTROPIC. HENCE THE FLOW
AT 925 MB WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE INVERSION LAYER AND WHERE
SATURATION IS OBSERVED TURNS FROM LIGHT NORTHERLY TO CALM BY
AFTERNOON TO SRLY BY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA UNDER WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. HI RESOLUTION
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR...RAP AND NAM12 SUGGEST THAT
THE LO CLOUDS REMAIN CLOSE TO WHERE THEY ARE NOW AND THEN ADVECT
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. OUR LOCAL WRF SUGGESTS ENUF INSOLATION
ALLOWS FOR EVEN MORE BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME INSOLATION THIS
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO SOME BREAKS...BUT BY TONIGHT THIS ENDS
AND THE LIGHT SRLY FLOW LOOKS TO SOCK IN THE ENTIRE AREA AGAIN.
WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE BREAKS
AND FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES THRU TONIGHT.

BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...THE DIURNAL TRENDS
WILL BE SMALL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE SINCE WE ARE BASICALLY AT THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR. TWEAKED GRIDS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
STILL QUIET. THE BIGGEST NEWS OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS
THE LIKELY APPEARANCE OF SUNSHINE WHICH HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO COME
BY LATELY.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A LAYER OF CLOUDS WITHIN
10-25 KFT AGL. SOME STRATOCUMULUS ALSO STILL LINGERING IN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY INITIALLY AS WELL. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL EXIT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...REVEALING WHAT WILL BE FOR MANY THE FIRST
SUNSHINE IN OVER A WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY...MAINLY 30S. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME HIGH THIN
CLOUDS MAY TRY TO MOVE IN TOWARDS DAWN. OVERALL THOUGH MAINLY
CLEAR WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING REALIZING LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR TWEEKS, OTHERWISE
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE 0Z GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ARE MUCH LOWER THAN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. LOWERED POPS AND
QPF ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ON MONDAY
EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS
RIGHT NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP
MAY SHUT RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND
OCCLUDED FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A PERSISTENT INVERSION...BUT SUBTLE
CHANGES ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING
INTO THE AREA. THIS IS FINALLY CAUSING NORTHWEST WIND TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WHICH BY NO LONGER TRANSPORTING LAKE MOISTURE
NOR UPSLOPING WILL EVENTUALLY ALSO LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF THE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACT TIMING FOR WHEN
CIGS SCATTER OUT AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...BUT AS USUAL KBGM
SHOULD HANG ONTO MVFR THE LONGEST...WELL INTO TONIGHT. SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS 10-20KFT AGL OF NO CONSEQUENCE WILL SPREAD IN LATER TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH. TOO MUCH DRY AIR IN THE
LOWEST 10 KFT THEN FOR PRECIPITATION.

OUTLOOK...

SUN TO MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO WED...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...HEDEN/JAB
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 201454
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
954 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON.
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. WARMER AND RAINY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE 11.9 MINUS 3.9 MICRON
IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WITH A LITTLE CLEARING IN NW
ONEIDA COUNTY NY AND A FEW SMALLER BREAKS HERE AND THERE BUT THIS
LOW CLOUD DECK REMAINS ENTRENCHED BASED ON THE SATELLITE LOOPS. ACARS
DATA AND THE 12Z ROABS FROM BUF AND ALY ALL SHOW A SHARP INVERSION
BETWEEN 950 AND 900 MB ACRS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THIS SHARP INVERSION. THE FLOW
UP THRU THE INVERSION LAYER WAS WEAKENING FROM THE NORTH AS OF 12Z
THIS MORNING. AS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC IT WILL
EXTEND DOWN TO THE SFC AND IT IS NEARLY BAROTROPIC. HENCE THE FLOW
AT 925 MB WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE INVERSION LAYER AND WHERE
SATURATION IS OBSERVED TURNS FROM LIGHT NORTHERLY TO CALM BY
AFTERNOON TO SRLY BY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA UNDER WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. HI RESOLUTION
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR...RAP AND NAM12 SUGGEST THAT
THE LO CLOUDS REMAIN CLOSE TO WHERE THEY ARE NOW AND THEN ADVECT
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. OUR LOCAL WRF SUGGESTS ENUF INSOLATION
ALLOWS FOR EVEN MORE BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME INSOLATION THIS
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO SOME BREAKS...BUT BY TONIGHT THIS ENDS
AND THE LIGHT SRLY FLOW LOOKS TO SOCK IN THE ENTIRE AREA AGAIN.
WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE BREAKS
AND FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES THRU TONIGHT.

BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...THE DIURNAL TRENDS
WILL BE SMALL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE SINCE WE ARE BASICALLY AT THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR. TWEAKED GRIDS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
STILL QUIET. THE BIGGEST NEWS OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS
THE LIKELY APPEARANCE OF SUNSHINE WHICH HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO COME
BY LATELY.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A LAYER OF CLOUDS WITHIN
10-25 KFT AGL. SOME STRATOCUMULUS ALSO STILL LINGERING IN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY INITIALLY AS WELL. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL EXIT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...REVEALING WHAT WILL BE FOR MANY THE FIRST
SUNSHINE IN OVER A WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY...MAINLY 30S. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME HIGH THIN
CLOUDS MAY TRY TO MOVE IN TOWARDS DAWN. OVERALL THOUGH MAINLY
CLEAR WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING REALIZING LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR TWEEKS, OTHERWISE
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE 0Z GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ARE MUCH LOWER THAN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. LOWERED POPS AND
QPF ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ON MONDAY
EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS
RIGHT NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP
MAY SHUT RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND
OCCLUDED FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A PERSISTENT INVERSION...BUT SUBTLE
CHANGES ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING
INTO THE AREA. THIS IS FINALLY CAUSING NORTHWEST WIND TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WHICH BY NO LONGER TRANSPORTING LAKE MOISTURE
NOR UPSLOPING WILL EVENTUALLY ALSO LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF THE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACT TIMING FOR WHEN
CIGS SCATTER OUT AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...BUT AS USUAL KBGM
SHOULD HANG ONTO MVFR THE LONGEST...WELL INTO TONIGHT. SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS 10-20KFT AGL OF NO CONSEQUENCE WILL SPREAD IN LATER TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH. TOO MUCH DRY AIR IN THE
LOWEST 10 KFT THEN FOR PRECIPITATION.

OUTLOOK...

SUN TO MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO WED...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...HEDEN/JAB
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 201200
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
700 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE LINGERING TODAY. SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. WARMER AND RAINY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 AM UPDATE...
SUBTLE CHANGES ALREADY BECOMING APPARENT...NOW THAT LOW LEVEL NW
FLOW IS BECOMING VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. CLOUD LAYER
DEFINITELY PRESENT UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION YET ALSO
BECOMING THIN. ERODING ALREADY OCCURRING NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...WITH RESULTANT QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING IN NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY. A FACEBOOK REPORT INDICATES ONLY 6 DEGREES IN
REMSEN. TO OUR NORTH WHERE SKY WAS CLEAR MOST OR ALL OF THE
NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS TO EVEN BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES CAN BE
FOUND IN FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NY-VT-NH AND INTO EASTERN
ONTARIO-QUEBEC.

SKY GRIDS ADJUSTED TO ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY QUICKER EROSION OF
CLOUDS...BUT STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF IT OVERALL TODAY ESPECIALLY
ITHACA- CORTLAND-NORWICH- BINGHAMTON AREAS WHERE AS USUAL THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGEST. THOSE THAT DO NOT MANAGE TO SEE PEEKS
OF SUN TODAY...CAN DEFINITELY LOOK FORWARD TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY ALLOW THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME VARIABLE LATER TODAY.
THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH ASSURES THAT A DRY WEEKEND IS IN
STORE...MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
HOWEVER...UPSLOPING FLOW WILL ALSO CEASE LATER TODAY AND IT WILL
BE VERY DRY JUST ABOVE THAT INVERSION. STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
STUBBORN...BUT THE SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS TO A
THINNER LAYER AND I EXPECT TO SEE SOME HOLES DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. THEN TONIGHT...A CONTEST BETWEEN STRATOCUMULUS BREAKING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND INCREASING CLOUDS ALOFT FROM WEAK UPPER
WAVE ZIPPING IN FROM WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OVERALL STILL WHAT COULD
BE CONSIDERED A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE
BREAKS. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ROUGHLY
2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS MANAGED FRIDAY...GENERALLY STILL
IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN MAINLY LOWER
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
STILL QUIET. THE BIGGEST NEWS OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS
THE LIKELY APPEARANCE OF SUNSHINE WHICH HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO COME
BY LATELY.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A LAYER OF CLOUDS WITHIN
10-25 KFT AGL. SOME STRATOCUMULUS ALSO STILL LINGERING IN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY INITIALLY AS WELL. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL EXIT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...REVEALING WHAT WILL BE FOR MANY THE FIRST
SUNSHINE IN OVER A WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY...MAINLY 30S. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME HIGH THIN
CLOUDS MAY TRY TO MOVE IN TOWARDS DAWN. OVERALL THOUGH MAINLY
CLEAR WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING REALIZING LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR TWEEKS, OTHERWISE
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE 0Z GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ARE MUCH LOWER THAN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. LOWERED POPS AND
QPF ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ON MONDAY
EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS
RIGHT NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP
MAY SHUT RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND
OCCLUDED FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A PERSISTENT INVERSION...BUT SUBTLE
CHANGES ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING
INTO THE AREA. THIS IS FINALLY CAUSING NORTHWEST WIND TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WHICH BY NO LONGER TRANSPORTING LAKE MOISTURE
NOR UPSLOPING WILL EVENTUALLY ALSO LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF THE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACT TIMING FOR WHEN
CIGS SCATTER OUT AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...BUT AS USUAL KBGM
SHOULD HANG ONTO MVFR THE LONGEST...WELL INTO TONIGHT. SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS 10-20KFT AGL OF NO CONSEQUENCE WILL SPREAD IN LATER TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH. TOO MUCH DRY AIR IN THE
LOWEST 10 KFT THEN FOR PRECIPITATION.

OUTLOOK...

SUN TO MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO WED...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...HEDEN/JAB
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 201200
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
700 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE LINGERING TODAY. SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. WARMER AND RAINY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 AM UPDATE...
SUBTLE CHANGES ALREADY BECOMING APPARENT...NOW THAT LOW LEVEL NW
FLOW IS BECOMING VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. CLOUD LAYER
DEFINITELY PRESENT UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION YET ALSO
BECOMING THIN. ERODING ALREADY OCCURRING NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...WITH RESULTANT QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING IN NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY. A FACEBOOK REPORT INDICATES ONLY 6 DEGREES IN
REMSEN. TO OUR NORTH WHERE SKY WAS CLEAR MOST OR ALL OF THE
NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS TO EVEN BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES CAN BE
FOUND IN FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NY-VT-NH AND INTO EASTERN
ONTARIO-QUEBEC.

SKY GRIDS ADJUSTED TO ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY QUICKER EROSION OF
CLOUDS...BUT STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF IT OVERALL TODAY ESPECIALLY
ITHACA- CORTLAND-NORWICH- BINGHAMTON AREAS WHERE AS USUAL THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGEST. THOSE THAT DO NOT MANAGE TO SEE PEEKS
OF SUN TODAY...CAN DEFINITELY LOOK FORWARD TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY ALLOW THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME VARIABLE LATER TODAY.
THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH ASSURES THAT A DRY WEEKEND IS IN
STORE...MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
HOWEVER...UPSLOPING FLOW WILL ALSO CEASE LATER TODAY AND IT WILL
BE VERY DRY JUST ABOVE THAT INVERSION. STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
STUBBORN...BUT THE SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS TO A
THINNER LAYER AND I EXPECT TO SEE SOME HOLES DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. THEN TONIGHT...A CONTEST BETWEEN STRATOCUMULUS BREAKING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND INCREASING CLOUDS ALOFT FROM WEAK UPPER
WAVE ZIPPING IN FROM WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OVERALL STILL WHAT COULD
BE CONSIDERED A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE
BREAKS. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ROUGHLY
2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS MANAGED FRIDAY...GENERALLY STILL
IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN MAINLY LOWER
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
STILL QUIET. THE BIGGEST NEWS OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS
THE LIKELY APPEARANCE OF SUNSHINE WHICH HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO COME
BY LATELY.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A LAYER OF CLOUDS WITHIN
10-25 KFT AGL. SOME STRATOCUMULUS ALSO STILL LINGERING IN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY INITIALLY AS WELL. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL EXIT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...REVEALING WHAT WILL BE FOR MANY THE FIRST
SUNSHINE IN OVER A WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY...MAINLY 30S. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME HIGH THIN
CLOUDS MAY TRY TO MOVE IN TOWARDS DAWN. OVERALL THOUGH MAINLY
CLEAR WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING REALIZING LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR TWEEKS, OTHERWISE
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE 0Z GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ARE MUCH LOWER THAN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. LOWERED POPS AND
QPF ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ON MONDAY
EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS
RIGHT NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP
MAY SHUT RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND
OCCLUDED FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A PERSISTENT INVERSION...BUT SUBTLE
CHANGES ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING
INTO THE AREA. THIS IS FINALLY CAUSING NORTHWEST WIND TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WHICH BY NO LONGER TRANSPORTING LAKE MOISTURE
NOR UPSLOPING WILL EVENTUALLY ALSO LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF THE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACT TIMING FOR WHEN
CIGS SCATTER OUT AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...BUT AS USUAL KBGM
SHOULD HANG ONTO MVFR THE LONGEST...WELL INTO TONIGHT. SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS 10-20KFT AGL OF NO CONSEQUENCE WILL SPREAD IN LATER TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH. TOO MUCH DRY AIR IN THE
LOWEST 10 KFT THEN FOR PRECIPITATION.

OUTLOOK...

SUN TO MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO WED...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...HEDEN/JAB
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 200849
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
349 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE STILL LINGERING TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL OUR BEST CHANCE OF GETTING AT LEAST
A LITTLE SUNSHINE. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. WARMER AND
RAINY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY ALLOW THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME VARIABLE LATER TODAY.
THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH ASSURES THAT A DRY WEEKEND IS IN
STORE...MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
HOWEVER...UPSLOPING FLOW WILL ALSO CEASE LATER TODAY AND IT WILL
BE VERY DRY JUST ABOVE THAT INVERSION. STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
STUBBORN...BUT THE SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS TO A
THINNER LAYER AND I EXPECT TO SEE SOME HOLES DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. THEN TONIGHT...A CONTEST BETWEEN STRATOCUMULUS BREAKING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND INCREASING CLOUDS ALOFT FROM WEAK UPPER
WAVE ZIPPING IN FROM WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OVERALL STILL WHAT COULD
BE CONSIDERED A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE
BREAKS. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ROUGHLY
2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS MANAGED FRIDAY...GENERALLY STILL
IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN MAINLY LOWER
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
STILL QUIET. THE BIGGEST NEWS OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS
THE LIKELY APPEARANCE OF SUNSHINE WHICH HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO COME
BY LATELY.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A LAYER OF CLOUDS WITHIN
10-25 KFT AGL. SOME STRATOCUMULUS ALSO STILL LINGERING IN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY INITIALLY AS WELL. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL EXIT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...REVEALING WHAT WILL BE FOR MANY THE FIRST
SUNSHINE IN OVER A WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY...MAINLY 30S. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME HIGH THIN
CLOUDS MAY TRY TO MOVE IN TOWARDS DAWN. OVERALL THOUGH MAINLY
CLEAR WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING REALIZING LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR TWEEKS, OTHERWISE
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE 0Z GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ARE MUCH LOWER THAN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. LOWERED POPS AND
QPF ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ON MONDAY
EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS
RIGHT NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP
MAY SHUT RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND
OCCLUDED FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A PERSISTENT INVERSION. AS
SUCH...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIG TO CONTINUE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SOME ERODING OCCURS FOR A FEW
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION...THE KBGM
TERMINAL WILL BE IN AND OUT OF IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL
FINALLY CAUSE THE NORTHWEST WIND TO CEASE DURING THE DAY...EVENTUALLY
ALSO LEADING TO THE DEMISE OF THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL BECOME VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KTS LATER TODAY THROUGH
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUN TO MON...LINGERING MVFR CIG POSSIBLE FOR A FEW TERMINALS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH MONDAY.

MON NGT TO WED...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...HEDEN/JAB
AVIATION...MDP









000
FXUS61 KBGM 200849
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
349 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE STILL LINGERING TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL OUR BEST CHANCE OF GETTING AT LEAST
A LITTLE SUNSHINE. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. WARMER AND
RAINY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY ALLOW THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME VARIABLE LATER TODAY.
THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH ASSURES THAT A DRY WEEKEND IS IN
STORE...MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
HOWEVER...UPSLOPING FLOW WILL ALSO CEASE LATER TODAY AND IT WILL
BE VERY DRY JUST ABOVE THAT INVERSION. STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
STUBBORN...BUT THE SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS TO A
THINNER LAYER AND I EXPECT TO SEE SOME HOLES DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. THEN TONIGHT...A CONTEST BETWEEN STRATOCUMULUS BREAKING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND INCREASING CLOUDS ALOFT FROM WEAK UPPER
WAVE ZIPPING IN FROM WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OVERALL STILL WHAT COULD
BE CONSIDERED A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE
BREAKS. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ROUGHLY
2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS MANAGED FRIDAY...GENERALLY STILL
IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN MAINLY LOWER
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
STILL QUIET. THE BIGGEST NEWS OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS
THE LIKELY APPEARANCE OF SUNSHINE WHICH HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO COME
BY LATELY.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A LAYER OF CLOUDS WITHIN
10-25 KFT AGL. SOME STRATOCUMULUS ALSO STILL LINGERING IN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY INITIALLY AS WELL. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL EXIT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...REVEALING WHAT WILL BE FOR MANY THE FIRST
SUNSHINE IN OVER A WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY...MAINLY 30S. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME HIGH THIN
CLOUDS MAY TRY TO MOVE IN TOWARDS DAWN. OVERALL THOUGH MAINLY
CLEAR WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING REALIZING LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR TWEEKS, OTHERWISE
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE 0Z GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ARE MUCH LOWER THAN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. LOWERED POPS AND
QPF ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ON MONDAY
EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS
RIGHT NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP
MAY SHUT RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND
OCCLUDED FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A PERSISTENT INVERSION. AS
SUCH...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIG TO CONTINUE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SOME ERODING OCCURS FOR A FEW
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION...THE KBGM
TERMINAL WILL BE IN AND OUT OF IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL
FINALLY CAUSE THE NORTHWEST WIND TO CEASE DURING THE DAY...EVENTUALLY
ALSO LEADING TO THE DEMISE OF THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL BECOME VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KTS LATER TODAY THROUGH
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUN TO MON...LINGERING MVFR CIG POSSIBLE FOR A FEW TERMINALS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH MONDAY.

MON NGT TO WED...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...HEDEN/JAB
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 200816
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
316 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE STILL LINGERING TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL OUR BEST CHANCE OF GETTING AT LEAST
A LITTLE SUNSHINE. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. WARMER AND
RAINY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY ALLOW THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME VARIABLE LATER TODAY.
THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH ASSURES THAT A DRY WEEKEND IS IN
STORE...MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
HOWEVER...UPSLOPING FLOW WILL ALSO CEASE LATER TODAY AND IT WILL
BE VERY DRY JUST ABOVE THAT INVERSION. STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
STUBBORN...BUT THE SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS TO A
THINNER LAYER AND I EXPECT TO SEE SOME HOLES DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. THEN TONIGHT...A CONTEST BETWEEN STRATOCUMULUS BREAKING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND INCREASING CLOUDS ALOFT FROM WEAK UPPER
WAVE ZIPPING IN FROM WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OVERALL STILL WHAT COULD
BE CONSIDERED A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE
BREAKS. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ROUGHLY
2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS MANAGED FRIDAY...GENERALLY STILL
IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN MAINLY LOWER
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
STILL QUIET. THE BIGGEST NEWS OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS
THE LIKELY APPEARANCE OF SUNSHINE WHICH HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO COME
BY LATELY.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A LAYER OF CLOUDS WITHIN
10-25 KFT AGL. SOME STRATOCUMULUS ALSO STILL LINGERING IN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY INITIALLY AS WELL. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL EXIT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...REVEALING WHAT WILL BE FOR MANY THE FIRST
SUNSHINE IN OVER A WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY...MAINLY 30S. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME HIGH THIN
CLOUDS MAY TRY TO MOVE IN TOWARDS DAWN. OVERALL THOUGH MAINLY
CLEAR WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING REALIZING LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM LATER NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE
ONSET OF THE EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS
RIGHT NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP
MAY SHUT RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND
OCCLUDED FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A PERSISTENT INVERSION. AS
SUCH...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIG TO CONTINUE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SOME ERODING OCCURS FOR A FEW
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION...THE KBGM
TERMINAL WILL BE IN AND OUT OF IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL
FINALLY CAUSE THE NORTHWEST WIND TO CEASE DURING THE DAY...EVENTUALLY
ALSO LEADING TO THE DEMISE OF THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL BECOME VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KTS LATER TODAY THROUGH
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUN TO MON...LINGERING MVFR CIG POSSIBLE FOR A FEW TERMINALS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH MONDAY.

MON NGT TO WED...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 200639
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
139 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE STILL LINGERING TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL OUR BEST CHANCE OF GETTING AT LEAST
A LITTLE SUNSHINE. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. WARMER AND
RAINY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 AM UPDATE...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY ALLOW THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME VARIABLE LATER TODAY.
THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH ASSURES THAT A DRY WEEKEND IS IN
STORE...MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. HOWEVER...UPSLOPING FLOW WILL ALSO CEASE LATER TODAY
AND IT WILL BE VERY DRY JUST ABOVE THAT INVERSION. STRATOCUMULUS
WILL BE STUBBORN...BUT THE SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
COMPRESS TO A THINNER LAYER AND I EXPECT TO SEE SOME HOLES
DEVELOPING BY THIS EVENING. THEN TONIGHT...A CONTEST BETWEEN
STRATOCUMULUS BREAKING UP IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND INCREASING
CLOUDS ALOFT FROM WEAK UPPER WAVE ZIPPING IN FROM WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. OVERALL STILL WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A MOSTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVER...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ROUGHLY 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT
WAS MANAGED FRIDAY...GENERALLY STILL IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN MAINLY LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SAT TO BE OVER THE AREA SAT NGT TO SUN
NGT. QUESTION THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE. HIGH
CENTERED IN SE CANADA SO SINKING MOTION WEAK. LL INVERSION WILL
WEAKEN BUT REMAIN. IN ADDITION MORE MOISTURE COMING IN AT MID
LEVELS ON SUNDAY. UPPED THE CLOUD AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND FOR THESE
REASONS.

MONDAY DEEP SW FLOW SETS UP AS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST. MOISTURE AND FORCING AHEAD OF IT WILL BRING MOSTLY SNOW TO
THE NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS AT THE LEAST MON AFTN. THE NAM HAS THE
PRECIP FURTHER NORTH BUT SIDED WITH THE SLOWER EURO. THE SW FLOW
AND WAA WILL PUSH SFC TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S SUNDAY THEN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM LATER NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE
ONSET OF THE EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS
RIGHT NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP
MAY SHUT RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND
OCCLUDED FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A PERSISTENT INVERSION. AS
SUCH...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIG TO CONTINUE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SOME ERODING OCCURS FOR A FEW
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION...THE KBGM
TERMINAL WILL BE IN AND OUT OF IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL
FINALLY CAUSE THE NORTHWEST WIND TO CEASE DURING THE DAY...EVENTUALLY
ALSO LEADING TO THE DEMISE OF THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL BECOME VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KTS LATER TODAY THROUGH
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUN TO MON...LINGERING MVFR CIG POSSIBLE FOR A FEW TERMINALS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH MONDAY.

MON NGT TO WED...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 200639
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
139 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE STILL LINGERING TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL OUR BEST CHANCE OF GETTING AT LEAST
A LITTLE SUNSHINE. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. WARMER AND
RAINY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 AM UPDATE...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY ALLOW THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME VARIABLE LATER TODAY.
THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH ASSURES THAT A DRY WEEKEND IS IN
STORE...MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. HOWEVER...UPSLOPING FLOW WILL ALSO CEASE LATER TODAY
AND IT WILL BE VERY DRY JUST ABOVE THAT INVERSION. STRATOCUMULUS
WILL BE STUBBORN...BUT THE SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
COMPRESS TO A THINNER LAYER AND I EXPECT TO SEE SOME HOLES
DEVELOPING BY THIS EVENING. THEN TONIGHT...A CONTEST BETWEEN
STRATOCUMULUS BREAKING UP IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND INCREASING
CLOUDS ALOFT FROM WEAK UPPER WAVE ZIPPING IN FROM WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. OVERALL STILL WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A MOSTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVER...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ROUGHLY 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT
WAS MANAGED FRIDAY...GENERALLY STILL IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN MAINLY LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SAT TO BE OVER THE AREA SAT NGT TO SUN
NGT. QUESTION THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE. HIGH
CENTERED IN SE CANADA SO SINKING MOTION WEAK. LL INVERSION WILL
WEAKEN BUT REMAIN. IN ADDITION MORE MOISTURE COMING IN AT MID
LEVELS ON SUNDAY. UPPED THE CLOUD AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND FOR THESE
REASONS.

MONDAY DEEP SW FLOW SETS UP AS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST. MOISTURE AND FORCING AHEAD OF IT WILL BRING MOSTLY SNOW TO
THE NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS AT THE LEAST MON AFTN. THE NAM HAS THE
PRECIP FURTHER NORTH BUT SIDED WITH THE SLOWER EURO. THE SW FLOW
AND WAA WILL PUSH SFC TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S SUNDAY THEN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM LATER NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE
ONSET OF THE EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS
RIGHT NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP
MAY SHUT RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND
OCCLUDED FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A PERSISTENT INVERSION. AS
SUCH...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIG TO CONTINUE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SOME ERODING OCCURS FOR A FEW
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION...THE KBGM
TERMINAL WILL BE IN AND OUT OF IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL
FINALLY CAUSE THE NORTHWEST WIND TO CEASE DURING THE DAY...EVENTUALLY
ALSO LEADING TO THE DEMISE OF THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL BECOME VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KTS LATER TODAY THROUGH
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUN TO MON...LINGERING MVFR CIG POSSIBLE FOR A FEW TERMINALS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH MONDAY.

MON NGT TO WED...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 200033
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
733 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM
WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, GIVING THE AREA
MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
SAME OLE SONG AND DANCE TONIGHT WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO WHERE THEY
WERE LAST NIGHT AND EXTENSIVE CLD CVR CONTINUING FOR THE 11TH DAY
IN A ROW. KBGM HAS NOT SEEN THE SUN SINCE THE AFTERNOON OF DEC
8TH. ONLY DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT WHILE A VORT MAX IS WORKING
ITS WAY INTO WRN NY AT THIS TIME MOISTURE IS NOT QUITE DEEP ENUF
TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN AND ONLY OCNL "SNIZZLE" IS
FALLING OUTSIDE. NO MJR CHGS MADE TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TONIGHT WITH
EXCEPTION OF HRLY T/TD TWEAKS. HV ADJUSTED MINS UP IN
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS WITH PROJECTED LOWS NOW IN THE M20S.

3 PM UPDATE...

COLD NW FLOW WEAKENING BUT STILL SOME FLURRIES AND MAYBE FREEZING
DRIZZLE FROM EXTREME NE PA INTO CENTRAL NY. WINDS DROP TO UNDER 10
KTS AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO EVENING. KEPT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH THE INVERSION
DROPPING BUT STILL TRAPPING MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS. CLEARING
AROUND THE EDGES OF THE CWA BUT THIS WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE MIXING. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND
AROUND 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SAT TO BE OVER THE AREA SAT NGT TO SUN NGT.
QUESTION THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE. HIGH
CENTERED IN SE CANADA SO SINKING MOTION WEAK. LL INVERSION WILL
WEAKEN BUT REMAIN. IN ADDITION MORE MOISTURE COMING IN AT MID
LEVELS ON SUNDAY. UPPED THE CLOUD AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND FOR THESE
REASONS.

MONDAY DEEP SW FLOW SETS UP AS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST. MOISTURE AND FORCING AHEAD OF IT WILL BRING MOSTLY SNOW TO
THE NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS AT THE LEAST MON AFTN. THE NAM HAS THE
PRECIP FURTHER NORTH BUT SIDED WITH THE SLOWER EURO. THE SW FLOW
AND WAA WILL PUSH SFC TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S SUNDAY THEN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM LATER NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE
ONSET OF THE EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS
RIGHT NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP
MAY SHUT RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND
OCCLUDED FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, AS CEILINGS INCH UPWARD. DUE TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATION, THE BGM TERMINAL WILL BE IN AND OUT OF IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST DUE TO AN AREA OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER A PERSISTENT INVERSION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS.

SUN TO MON...BECOMING VFR CIG.

MON NGT TO WED...MVFR/IFR. MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING...THEN
PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...PVF/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 200033
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
733 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM
WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, GIVING THE AREA
MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
SAME OLE SONG AND DANCE TONIGHT WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO WHERE THEY
WERE LAST NIGHT AND EXTENSIVE CLD CVR CONTINUING FOR THE 11TH DAY
IN A ROW. KBGM HAS NOT SEEN THE SUN SINCE THE AFTERNOON OF DEC
8TH. ONLY DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT WHILE A VORT MAX IS WORKING
ITS WAY INTO WRN NY AT THIS TIME MOISTURE IS NOT QUITE DEEP ENUF
TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN AND ONLY OCNL "SNIZZLE" IS
FALLING OUTSIDE. NO MJR CHGS MADE TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TONIGHT WITH
EXCEPTION OF HRLY T/TD TWEAKS. HV ADJUSTED MINS UP IN
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS WITH PROJECTED LOWS NOW IN THE M20S.

3 PM UPDATE...

COLD NW FLOW WEAKENING BUT STILL SOME FLURRIES AND MAYBE FREEZING
DRIZZLE FROM EXTREME NE PA INTO CENTRAL NY. WINDS DROP TO UNDER 10
KTS AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO EVENING. KEPT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH THE INVERSION
DROPPING BUT STILL TRAPPING MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS. CLEARING
AROUND THE EDGES OF THE CWA BUT THIS WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE MIXING. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND
AROUND 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SAT TO BE OVER THE AREA SAT NGT TO SUN NGT.
QUESTION THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE. HIGH
CENTERED IN SE CANADA SO SINKING MOTION WEAK. LL INVERSION WILL
WEAKEN BUT REMAIN. IN ADDITION MORE MOISTURE COMING IN AT MID
LEVELS ON SUNDAY. UPPED THE CLOUD AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND FOR THESE
REASONS.

MONDAY DEEP SW FLOW SETS UP AS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST. MOISTURE AND FORCING AHEAD OF IT WILL BRING MOSTLY SNOW TO
THE NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS AT THE LEAST MON AFTN. THE NAM HAS THE
PRECIP FURTHER NORTH BUT SIDED WITH THE SLOWER EURO. THE SW FLOW
AND WAA WILL PUSH SFC TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S SUNDAY THEN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM LATER NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE
ONSET OF THE EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS
RIGHT NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP
MAY SHUT RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND
OCCLUDED FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, AS CEILINGS INCH UPWARD. DUE TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATION, THE BGM TERMINAL WILL BE IN AND OUT OF IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST DUE TO AN AREA OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER A PERSISTENT INVERSION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS.

SUN TO MON...BECOMING VFR CIG.

MON NGT TO WED...MVFR/IFR. MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING...THEN
PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...PVF/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 192312
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
612 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM
WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, GIVING THE AREA
MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
3 PM UPDATE...

COLD NW FLOW WEAKENING BUT STILL SOME FLURRIES AND MAYBE FREEZING
DRIZZLE FROM EXTREME NE PA INTO CENTRAL NY. WINDS DROP TO UNDER 10
KTS AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO EVENING. KEPT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH THE INVERSION
DROPPING BUT STILL TRAPPING MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS. CLEARING
AROUND THE EDGES OF THE CWA BUT THIS WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE MIXING. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND
AROUND 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SAT TO BE OVER THE AREA SAT NGT TO SUN NGT.
QUESTION THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE. HIGH
CENTERED IN SE CANADA SO SINKING MOTION WEAK. LL INVERSION WILL
WEAKEN BUT REMAIN. IN ADDITION MORE MOISTURE COMING IN AT MID
LEVELS ON SUNDAY. UPPED THE CLOUD AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND FOR THESE
REASONS.

MONDAY DEEP SW FLOW SETS UP AS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST. MOISTURE AND FORCING AHEAD OF IT WILL BRING MOSTLY SNOW TO
THE NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS AT THE LEAST MON AFTN. THE NAM HAS THE
PRECIP FURTHER NORTH BUT SIDED WITH THE SLOWER EURO. THE SW FLOW
AND WAA WILL PUSH SFC TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S SUNDAY THEN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM LATER NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE
ONSET OF THE EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS
RIGHT NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP
MAY SHUT RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND
OCCLUDED FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, AS CEILINGS INCH UPWARD. DUE TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATION, THE BGM TERMINAL WILL BE IN AND OUT OF IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST DUE TO AN AREA OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER A PERSISTENT INVERSION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS.

SUN TO MON...BECOMING VFR CIG.

MON NGT TO WED...MVFR/IFR. MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING...THEN
PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 192312
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
612 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM
WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, GIVING THE AREA
MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
3 PM UPDATE...

COLD NW FLOW WEAKENING BUT STILL SOME FLURRIES AND MAYBE FREEZING
DRIZZLE FROM EXTREME NE PA INTO CENTRAL NY. WINDS DROP TO UNDER 10
KTS AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO EVENING. KEPT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH THE INVERSION
DROPPING BUT STILL TRAPPING MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS. CLEARING
AROUND THE EDGES OF THE CWA BUT THIS WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE MIXING. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND
AROUND 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SAT TO BE OVER THE AREA SAT NGT TO SUN NGT.
QUESTION THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE. HIGH
CENTERED IN SE CANADA SO SINKING MOTION WEAK. LL INVERSION WILL
WEAKEN BUT REMAIN. IN ADDITION MORE MOISTURE COMING IN AT MID
LEVELS ON SUNDAY. UPPED THE CLOUD AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND FOR THESE
REASONS.

MONDAY DEEP SW FLOW SETS UP AS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST. MOISTURE AND FORCING AHEAD OF IT WILL BRING MOSTLY SNOW TO
THE NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS AT THE LEAST MON AFTN. THE NAM HAS THE
PRECIP FURTHER NORTH BUT SIDED WITH THE SLOWER EURO. THE SW FLOW
AND WAA WILL PUSH SFC TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S SUNDAY THEN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM LATER NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE
ONSET OF THE EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS
RIGHT NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP
MAY SHUT RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND
OCCLUDED FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, AS CEILINGS INCH UPWARD. DUE TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATION, THE BGM TERMINAL WILL BE IN AND OUT OF IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST DUE TO AN AREA OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER A PERSISTENT INVERSION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS.

SUN TO MON...BECOMING VFR CIG.

MON NGT TO WED...MVFR/IFR. MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING...THEN
PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 192047
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
347 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM
WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, GIVING THE AREA
MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
3 PM UPDATE...

COLD NW FLOW WEAKENING BUT STILL SOME FLURRIES AND MAYBE FREEZING
DRIZZLE FROM EXTREME NE PA INTO CENTRAL NY. WINDS DROP TO UNDER 10
KTS AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO EVENING. KEPT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH THE INVERSION
DROPPING BUT STILL TRAPPING MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS. CLEARING
AROUND THE EDGES OF THE CWA BUT THIS WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE MIXING. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND
AROUND 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SAT TO BE OVER THE AREA SAT NGT TO SUN NGT.
QUESTION THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE. HIGH
CENTERED IN SE CANADA SO SINKING MOTION WEAK. LL INVERSION WILL
WEAKEN BUT REMAIN. IN ADDITION MORE MOISTURE COMING IN AT MID
LEVELS ON SUNDAY. UPPED THE CLOUD AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND FOR THESE
REASONS.

MONDAY DEEP SW FLOW SETS UP AS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST. MOISTURE AND FORCING AHEAD OF IT WILL BRING MOSTLY SNOW TO
THE NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS AT THE LEAST MON AFTN. THE NAM HAS THE
PRECIP FURTHER NORTH BUT SIDED WITH THE SLOWER EURO. THE SW FLOW
AND WAA WILL PUSH SFC TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S SUNDAY THEN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM LATER NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE
ONSET OF THE EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS
RIGHT NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP
MAY SHUT RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND
OCCLUDED FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
THUS WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ON CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE NEXT
6-12 HOURS. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES DO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
A SLIGHT CATEGORY LIFTING OF CIGS THIS EVENING...AND SOME POSSIBLE
VFR WHERE SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE EROSION OF CLOUDS NEAR KAVP
AND KRME. OTHERWISE...MVFR/IFR OVERCAST RULES THE DAY. RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE ORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WANE...HOWEVER THE FICKLE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO PERSIST
AT TIMES INTO TONIGHT. REALLY NO CONFIDENCE ATTM TO KEEP INCLUDING
IN THE SFC TAF FORECAST BEYOND THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO WHERE IT IS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT PILOTS WILL CONTINUE
TO ENCOUNTER IN CLOUD MIXED TO CLEAR ICING IN THE APPROACH
PATTERNS...BUT SUB CLOUD ICE WILL BE HIT AND MISS AT THE
TERMINALS.

POOR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS.

SUN TO MON...BECOMING VFR CIG.

MON NGT TO WED...MVFR/IFR. MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING...THEN
PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB







000
FXUS61 KBGM 191944
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
244 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TODAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
THE ADVISORY FOR THE FZDZ HAS EXPIRED. MOST OF THE OBSERVATIONS
NOW REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. RADAR SHOWING ONE MAIN WEAK
BAND OF PRECIP FROM CORTLAND TO WINDSOR. MOISTURE AND PRECIP
SHALLOW SO RETURNS MOSTLY CLOSE TO THE RADARS. WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A LARGE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
LITTLE TODAY AND REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING. POPS AND WEATHER
GRIDS LOOKED GOOD AND KEPT AS IS.

645 AM UPDATE...
WILL BE ABLE TO LET GO OF STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA FROM
ADVISORY AS EXPECTED WITH WIDENING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ERODING
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS THERE. MEANWHILE...REMAINDER OF ADVISORY
IN CENTRAL NY...AND SUSQUEHANNA- NORTHERN WAYNE PA...STILL
WARRANTED THROUGH 10 AM DUE TO CONTINUED VERY LIGHT NW-FLOW LAKE
MOISTURE BANDS PRODUCING FLURRIES AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THAT BEING SAID...SATELLITE IS SHOWING THAT THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED A FEW DEGREES...ENOUGH TO WHERE A GREATER
PROPORTION OF PRECIP IS NOW IN FORM OF FLURRIES...THAT
IS...DRIZZLE IS BECOMING MORE PATCHY WITH TIME. RECENT SPOTTER
REPORT IN HARTWICK OF OTSEGO COUNTY...AND 6AM OBS IN
SYRACUSE...INDICATE THOUGH THAT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL
MANAGING TO OCCUR IN PLACES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER...WILL
PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND ACTUAL
BUFFALO 00Z SOUNDING/ CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS IF THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ICE CRYSTALS. MUCH OF THE TIME...WARMER THAN MINUS-10 CELSIUS
AND THUS CLOUDS MADE OF MAINLY SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS AND NOT ICE
CRYSTALS. YET WITHIN INDIVIDUAL BANDS...MOISTURE BRIEFLY DEEP
ENOUGH TO REACH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MANAGING SOME ICE
CRYSTALS. BEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE...AS
WELL AS SOME LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO FINGER LAKES AND
TOPOGRAPHY FORCING UPSLOPING. OUTSIDE OF INDIVIDUAL
BANDS...FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD. WHETHER SNOW OR ICE...ACCUMULATIONS OF EITHER
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...THOUGH ANY ICE WHATSOEVER WILL CAUSE SLICK
SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 10 AM FOR TWIN TIERS
NORTHWARD DUE TO CONTINUED AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...EXCEPT
STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS PREVIOUSLY
SCHEDULED WITH ENCROACHING DRIER AIR/LOWER DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO ERODE
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERN IN THOSE AREAS BY THEN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWERING AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH SATURATED LAYER GRADUALLY GETTING
THINNER...SO WITH TIME IT WILL BECOME HARDER TO SUPPORT -FZDZ
OUTSIDE OF THE FLURRY BANDS.

LAST OF FLURRIES/PATCHY -FZDZ WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY EVENING...BUT
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS DIURNAL RANGE. TEMPERATURES BARELY
GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...HIGHS IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THEN
TONIGHT...LOWS MAINLY IN LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ON SUNSHINE PROSPECTS. ALL MODELS SHOW VARYING
DEGREES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY LIFTING IT NORTH OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOWS BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. WITH ALMOST NO
WIND UP THROUGH 5,000 FEET, ON ONE HAND IT WOULD MAKE SENSE THIS
MOISTURE IS HARD TO SCOUR OUT DUE TO THE LACK OF MIXING/LOW SUN
ANGLE AND A PESKY INVERSION. ON THE OTHER HAND WE WON`T HAVE ANY
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE LAKE OR UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEAL WITH. ANOTHER
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS JUST HOW THICK WILL THE MOISTURE DEPTH BE.
IF YOU TOOK THE MODEL SOUNDINGS TO BE ANYWHERE CLOSE TO CORRECT,
THE LAYER OF MOISTURE CERTAINLY APPEARS THIN ENOUGH THAT SUNSHINE
IS LIKELY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE MODELS OFTEN DO A POOR JOB WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHEN IT IS THIS SHALLOW. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE
I HOPE YOU GET THE IDEA THAT WHILE SUN PROSPECTS ARE DECENT FOR
BOTH DAYS, IT IS VERY COMPLICATED. FOR NOW I LIKE THE IDEA OF GRADUALLY
THINNING CLOUDS SATURDAY OVER THE MORE FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL
AREAS OF NEPA. GRADUALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON I SHOW A TRANSITION
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM LATER NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE
ONSET OF THE EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS RIGHT
NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP MAY SHUT
RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND OCCLUDED
FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
THUS WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ON CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE NEXT
6-12 HOURS. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES DO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
A SLIGHT CATEGORY LIFTING OF CIGS THIS EVENING...AND SOME POSSIBLE
VFR WHERE SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE EROSION OF CLOUDS NEAR KAVP
AND KRME. OTHERWISE...MVFR/IFR OVERCAST RULES THE DAY. RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE ORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WANE...HOWEVER
THE FICKLE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AT TIMES INTO
TONIGHT. REALLY NO CONFIDENCE ATTM TO KEEP INCLUDING IN THE SFC
TAF FORECAST BEYOND THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING.
SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT PILOTS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER IN CLOUD
MIXED TO CLEAR ICING IN THE APPROACH PATTERNS...BUT SUB CLOUD ICE WILL BE
HIT AND MISS AT THE TERMINALS.

POOR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS.

SUN TO MON...BECOMING VFR CIG.

MON NGT TO WED...MVFR/IFR. MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING...THEN PERIODS
OF RAIN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/TAC
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB







000
FXUS61 KBGM 191944
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
244 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TODAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
THE ADVISORY FOR THE FZDZ HAS EXPIRED. MOST OF THE OBSERVATIONS
NOW REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. RADAR SHOWING ONE MAIN WEAK
BAND OF PRECIP FROM CORTLAND TO WINDSOR. MOISTURE AND PRECIP
SHALLOW SO RETURNS MOSTLY CLOSE TO THE RADARS. WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A LARGE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
LITTLE TODAY AND REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING. POPS AND WEATHER
GRIDS LOOKED GOOD AND KEPT AS IS.

645 AM UPDATE...
WILL BE ABLE TO LET GO OF STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA FROM
ADVISORY AS EXPECTED WITH WIDENING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ERODING
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS THERE. MEANWHILE...REMAINDER OF ADVISORY
IN CENTRAL NY...AND SUSQUEHANNA- NORTHERN WAYNE PA...STILL
WARRANTED THROUGH 10 AM DUE TO CONTINUED VERY LIGHT NW-FLOW LAKE
MOISTURE BANDS PRODUCING FLURRIES AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THAT BEING SAID...SATELLITE IS SHOWING THAT THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED A FEW DEGREES...ENOUGH TO WHERE A GREATER
PROPORTION OF PRECIP IS NOW IN FORM OF FLURRIES...THAT
IS...DRIZZLE IS BECOMING MORE PATCHY WITH TIME. RECENT SPOTTER
REPORT IN HARTWICK OF OTSEGO COUNTY...AND 6AM OBS IN
SYRACUSE...INDICATE THOUGH THAT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL
MANAGING TO OCCUR IN PLACES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER...WILL
PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND ACTUAL
BUFFALO 00Z SOUNDING/ CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS IF THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ICE CRYSTALS. MUCH OF THE TIME...WARMER THAN MINUS-10 CELSIUS
AND THUS CLOUDS MADE OF MAINLY SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS AND NOT ICE
CRYSTALS. YET WITHIN INDIVIDUAL BANDS...MOISTURE BRIEFLY DEEP
ENOUGH TO REACH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MANAGING SOME ICE
CRYSTALS. BEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE...AS
WELL AS SOME LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO FINGER LAKES AND
TOPOGRAPHY FORCING UPSLOPING. OUTSIDE OF INDIVIDUAL
BANDS...FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD. WHETHER SNOW OR ICE...ACCUMULATIONS OF EITHER
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...THOUGH ANY ICE WHATSOEVER WILL CAUSE SLICK
SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 10 AM FOR TWIN TIERS
NORTHWARD DUE TO CONTINUED AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...EXCEPT
STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS PREVIOUSLY
SCHEDULED WITH ENCROACHING DRIER AIR/LOWER DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO ERODE
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERN IN THOSE AREAS BY THEN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWERING AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH SATURATED LAYER GRADUALLY GETTING
THINNER...SO WITH TIME IT WILL BECOME HARDER TO SUPPORT -FZDZ
OUTSIDE OF THE FLURRY BANDS.

LAST OF FLURRIES/PATCHY -FZDZ WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY EVENING...BUT
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS DIURNAL RANGE. TEMPERATURES BARELY
GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...HIGHS IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THEN
TONIGHT...LOWS MAINLY IN LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ON SUNSHINE PROSPECTS. ALL MODELS SHOW VARYING
DEGREES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY LIFTING IT NORTH OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOWS BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. WITH ALMOST NO
WIND UP THROUGH 5,000 FEET, ON ONE HAND IT WOULD MAKE SENSE THIS
MOISTURE IS HARD TO SCOUR OUT DUE TO THE LACK OF MIXING/LOW SUN
ANGLE AND A PESKY INVERSION. ON THE OTHER HAND WE WON`T HAVE ANY
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE LAKE OR UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEAL WITH. ANOTHER
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS JUST HOW THICK WILL THE MOISTURE DEPTH BE.
IF YOU TOOK THE MODEL SOUNDINGS TO BE ANYWHERE CLOSE TO CORRECT,
THE LAYER OF MOISTURE CERTAINLY APPEARS THIN ENOUGH THAT SUNSHINE
IS LIKELY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE MODELS OFTEN DO A POOR JOB WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHEN IT IS THIS SHALLOW. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE
I HOPE YOU GET THE IDEA THAT WHILE SUN PROSPECTS ARE DECENT FOR
BOTH DAYS, IT IS VERY COMPLICATED. FOR NOW I LIKE THE IDEA OF GRADUALLY
THINNING CLOUDS SATURDAY OVER THE MORE FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL
AREAS OF NEPA. GRADUALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON I SHOW A TRANSITION
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM LATER NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE
ONSET OF THE EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS RIGHT
NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP MAY SHUT
RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND OCCLUDED
FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
THUS WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ON CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE NEXT
6-12 HOURS. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES DO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
A SLIGHT CATEGORY LIFTING OF CIGS THIS EVENING...AND SOME POSSIBLE
VFR WHERE SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE EROSION OF CLOUDS NEAR KAVP
AND KRME. OTHERWISE...MVFR/IFR OVERCAST RULES THE DAY. RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE ORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WANE...HOWEVER
THE FICKLE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AT TIMES INTO
TONIGHT. REALLY NO CONFIDENCE ATTM TO KEEP INCLUDING IN THE SFC
TAF FORECAST BEYOND THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING.
SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT PILOTS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER IN CLOUD
MIXED TO CLEAR ICING IN THE APPROACH PATTERNS...BUT SUB CLOUD ICE WILL BE
HIT AND MISS AT THE TERMINALS.

POOR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS.

SUN TO MON...BECOMING VFR CIG.

MON NGT TO WED...MVFR/IFR. MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING...THEN PERIODS
OF RAIN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/TAC
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB








000
FXUS61 KBGM 191944
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
244 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TODAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
THE ADVISORY FOR THE FZDZ HAS EXPIRED. MOST OF THE OBSERVATIONS
NOW REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. RADAR SHOWING ONE MAIN WEAK
BAND OF PRECIP FROM CORTLAND TO WINDSOR. MOISTURE AND PRECIP
SHALLOW SO RETURNS MOSTLY CLOSE TO THE RADARS. WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A LARGE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
LITTLE TODAY AND REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING. POPS AND WEATHER
GRIDS LOOKED GOOD AND KEPT AS IS.

645 AM UPDATE...
WILL BE ABLE TO LET GO OF STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA FROM
ADVISORY AS EXPECTED WITH WIDENING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ERODING
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS THERE. MEANWHILE...REMAINDER OF ADVISORY
IN CENTRAL NY...AND SUSQUEHANNA- NORTHERN WAYNE PA...STILL
WARRANTED THROUGH 10 AM DUE TO CONTINUED VERY LIGHT NW-FLOW LAKE
MOISTURE BANDS PRODUCING FLURRIES AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THAT BEING SAID...SATELLITE IS SHOWING THAT THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED A FEW DEGREES...ENOUGH TO WHERE A GREATER
PROPORTION OF PRECIP IS NOW IN FORM OF FLURRIES...THAT
IS...DRIZZLE IS BECOMING MORE PATCHY WITH TIME. RECENT SPOTTER
REPORT IN HARTWICK OF OTSEGO COUNTY...AND 6AM OBS IN
SYRACUSE...INDICATE THOUGH THAT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL
MANAGING TO OCCUR IN PLACES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER...WILL
PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND ACTUAL
BUFFALO 00Z SOUNDING/ CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS IF THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ICE CRYSTALS. MUCH OF THE TIME...WARMER THAN MINUS-10 CELSIUS
AND THUS CLOUDS MADE OF MAINLY SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS AND NOT ICE
CRYSTALS. YET WITHIN INDIVIDUAL BANDS...MOISTURE BRIEFLY DEEP
ENOUGH TO REACH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MANAGING SOME ICE
CRYSTALS. BEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE...AS
WELL AS SOME LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO FINGER LAKES AND
TOPOGRAPHY FORCING UPSLOPING. OUTSIDE OF INDIVIDUAL
BANDS...FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD. WHETHER SNOW OR ICE...ACCUMULATIONS OF EITHER
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...THOUGH ANY ICE WHATSOEVER WILL CAUSE SLICK
SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 10 AM FOR TWIN TIERS
NORTHWARD DUE TO CONTINUED AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...EXCEPT
STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS PREVIOUSLY
SCHEDULED WITH ENCROACHING DRIER AIR/LOWER DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO ERODE
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERN IN THOSE AREAS BY THEN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWERING AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH SATURATED LAYER GRADUALLY GETTING
THINNER...SO WITH TIME IT WILL BECOME HARDER TO SUPPORT -FZDZ
OUTSIDE OF THE FLURRY BANDS.

LAST OF FLURRIES/PATCHY -FZDZ WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY EVENING...BUT
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS DIURNAL RANGE. TEMPERATURES BARELY
GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...HIGHS IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THEN
TONIGHT...LOWS MAINLY IN LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ON SUNSHINE PROSPECTS. ALL MODELS SHOW VARYING
DEGREES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY LIFTING IT NORTH OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOWS BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. WITH ALMOST NO
WIND UP THROUGH 5,000 FEET, ON ONE HAND IT WOULD MAKE SENSE THIS
MOISTURE IS HARD TO SCOUR OUT DUE TO THE LACK OF MIXING/LOW SUN
ANGLE AND A PESKY INVERSION. ON THE OTHER HAND WE WON`T HAVE ANY
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE LAKE OR UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEAL WITH. ANOTHER
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS JUST HOW THICK WILL THE MOISTURE DEPTH BE.
IF YOU TOOK THE MODEL SOUNDINGS TO BE ANYWHERE CLOSE TO CORRECT,
THE LAYER OF MOISTURE CERTAINLY APPEARS THIN ENOUGH THAT SUNSHINE
IS LIKELY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE MODELS OFTEN DO A POOR JOB WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHEN IT IS THIS SHALLOW. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE
I HOPE YOU GET THE IDEA THAT WHILE SUN PROSPECTS ARE DECENT FOR
BOTH DAYS, IT IS VERY COMPLICATED. FOR NOW I LIKE THE IDEA OF GRADUALLY
THINNING CLOUDS SATURDAY OVER THE MORE FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL
AREAS OF NEPA. GRADUALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON I SHOW A TRANSITION
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM LATER NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE
ONSET OF THE EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS RIGHT
NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP MAY SHUT
RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND OCCLUDED
FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
THUS WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ON CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE NEXT
6-12 HOURS. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES DO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
A SLIGHT CATEGORY LIFTING OF CIGS THIS EVENING...AND SOME POSSIBLE
VFR WHERE SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE EROSION OF CLOUDS NEAR KAVP
AND KRME. OTHERWISE...MVFR/IFR OVERCAST RULES THE DAY. RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE ORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WANE...HOWEVER
THE FICKLE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AT TIMES INTO
TONIGHT. REALLY NO CONFIDENCE ATTM TO KEEP INCLUDING IN THE SFC
TAF FORECAST BEYOND THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING.
SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT PILOTS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER IN CLOUD
MIXED TO CLEAR ICING IN THE APPROACH PATTERNS...BUT SUB CLOUD ICE WILL BE
HIT AND MISS AT THE TERMINALS.

POOR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS.

SUN TO MON...BECOMING VFR CIG.

MON NGT TO WED...MVFR/IFR. MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING...THEN PERIODS
OF RAIN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/TAC
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB







000
FXUS61 KBGM 191944
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
244 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TODAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
THE ADVISORY FOR THE FZDZ HAS EXPIRED. MOST OF THE OBSERVATIONS
NOW REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. RADAR SHOWING ONE MAIN WEAK
BAND OF PRECIP FROM CORTLAND TO WINDSOR. MOISTURE AND PRECIP
SHALLOW SO RETURNS MOSTLY CLOSE TO THE RADARS. WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A LARGE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
LITTLE TODAY AND REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING. POPS AND WEATHER
GRIDS LOOKED GOOD AND KEPT AS IS.

645 AM UPDATE...
WILL BE ABLE TO LET GO OF STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA FROM
ADVISORY AS EXPECTED WITH WIDENING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ERODING
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS THERE. MEANWHILE...REMAINDER OF ADVISORY
IN CENTRAL NY...AND SUSQUEHANNA- NORTHERN WAYNE PA...STILL
WARRANTED THROUGH 10 AM DUE TO CONTINUED VERY LIGHT NW-FLOW LAKE
MOISTURE BANDS PRODUCING FLURRIES AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THAT BEING SAID...SATELLITE IS SHOWING THAT THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED A FEW DEGREES...ENOUGH TO WHERE A GREATER
PROPORTION OF PRECIP IS NOW IN FORM OF FLURRIES...THAT
IS...DRIZZLE IS BECOMING MORE PATCHY WITH TIME. RECENT SPOTTER
REPORT IN HARTWICK OF OTSEGO COUNTY...AND 6AM OBS IN
SYRACUSE...INDICATE THOUGH THAT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL
MANAGING TO OCCUR IN PLACES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER...WILL
PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND ACTUAL
BUFFALO 00Z SOUNDING/ CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS IF THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ICE CRYSTALS. MUCH OF THE TIME...WARMER THAN MINUS-10 CELSIUS
AND THUS CLOUDS MADE OF MAINLY SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS AND NOT ICE
CRYSTALS. YET WITHIN INDIVIDUAL BANDS...MOISTURE BRIEFLY DEEP
ENOUGH TO REACH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MANAGING SOME ICE
CRYSTALS. BEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE...AS
WELL AS SOME LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO FINGER LAKES AND
TOPOGRAPHY FORCING UPSLOPING. OUTSIDE OF INDIVIDUAL
BANDS...FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD. WHETHER SNOW OR ICE...ACCUMULATIONS OF EITHER
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...THOUGH ANY ICE WHATSOEVER WILL CAUSE SLICK
SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 10 AM FOR TWIN TIERS
NORTHWARD DUE TO CONTINUED AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...EXCEPT
STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS PREVIOUSLY
SCHEDULED WITH ENCROACHING DRIER AIR/LOWER DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO ERODE
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERN IN THOSE AREAS BY THEN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWERING AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH SATURATED LAYER GRADUALLY GETTING
THINNER...SO WITH TIME IT WILL BECOME HARDER TO SUPPORT -FZDZ
OUTSIDE OF THE FLURRY BANDS.

LAST OF FLURRIES/PATCHY -FZDZ WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY EVENING...BUT
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS DIURNAL RANGE. TEMPERATURES BARELY
GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...HIGHS IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THEN
TONIGHT...LOWS MAINLY IN LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ON SUNSHINE PROSPECTS. ALL MODELS SHOW VARYING
DEGREES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY LIFTING IT NORTH OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOWS BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. WITH ALMOST NO
WIND UP THROUGH 5,000 FEET, ON ONE HAND IT WOULD MAKE SENSE THIS
MOISTURE IS HARD TO SCOUR OUT DUE TO THE LACK OF MIXING/LOW SUN
ANGLE AND A PESKY INVERSION. ON THE OTHER HAND WE WON`T HAVE ANY
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE LAKE OR UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEAL WITH. ANOTHER
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS JUST HOW THICK WILL THE MOISTURE DEPTH BE.
IF YOU TOOK THE MODEL SOUNDINGS TO BE ANYWHERE CLOSE TO CORRECT,
THE LAYER OF MOISTURE CERTAINLY APPEARS THIN ENOUGH THAT SUNSHINE
IS LIKELY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE MODELS OFTEN DO A POOR JOB WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHEN IT IS THIS SHALLOW. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE
I HOPE YOU GET THE IDEA THAT WHILE SUN PROSPECTS ARE DECENT FOR
BOTH DAYS, IT IS VERY COMPLICATED. FOR NOW I LIKE THE IDEA OF GRADUALLY
THINNING CLOUDS SATURDAY OVER THE MORE FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL
AREAS OF NEPA. GRADUALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON I SHOW A TRANSITION
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM LATER NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE
ONSET OF THE EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS RIGHT
NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP MAY SHUT
RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND OCCLUDED
FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
THUS WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ON CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE NEXT
6-12 HOURS. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES DO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
A SLIGHT CATEGORY LIFTING OF CIGS THIS EVENING...AND SOME POSSIBLE
VFR WHERE SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE EROSION OF CLOUDS NEAR KAVP
AND KRME. OTHERWISE...MVFR/IFR OVERCAST RULES THE DAY. RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE ORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WANE...HOWEVER
THE FICKLE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AT TIMES INTO
TONIGHT. REALLY NO CONFIDENCE ATTM TO KEEP INCLUDING IN THE SFC
TAF FORECAST BEYOND THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING.
SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT PILOTS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER IN CLOUD
MIXED TO CLEAR ICING IN THE APPROACH PATTERNS...BUT SUB CLOUD ICE WILL BE
HIT AND MISS AT THE TERMINALS.

POOR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS.

SUN TO MON...BECOMING VFR CIG.

MON NGT TO WED...MVFR/IFR. MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING...THEN PERIODS
OF RAIN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/TAC
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB








000
FXUS61 KBGM 191738
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1238 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TODAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
THE ADVISORY FOR THE FZDZ HAS EXPIRED. MOST OF THE OBSERVATIONS
NOW REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. RADAR SHOWING ONE MAIN WEAK
BAND OF PRECIP FROM CORTLAND TO WINDSOR. MOISTURE AND PRECIP
SHALLOW SO RETURNS MOSTLY CLOSE TO THE RADARS. WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A LARGE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
LITTLE TODAY AND REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING. POPS AND WEATHER
GRIDS LOOKED GOOD AND KEPT AS IS.

645 AM UPDATE...
WILL BE ABLE TO LET GO OF STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA FROM
ADVISORY AS EXPECTED WITH WIDENING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ERODING
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS THERE. MEANWHILE...REMAINDER OF ADVISORY
IN CENTRAL NY...AND SUSQUEHANNA- NORTHERN WAYNE PA...STILL
WARRANTED THROUGH 10 AM DUE TO CONTINUED VERY LIGHT NW-FLOW LAKE
MOISTURE BANDS PRODUCING FLURRIES AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THAT BEING SAID...SATELLITE IS SHOWING THAT THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED A FEW DEGREES...ENOUGH TO WHERE A GREATER
PROPORTION OF PRECIP IS NOW IN FORM OF FLURRIES...THAT
IS...DRIZZLE IS BECOMING MORE PATCHY WITH TIME. RECENT SPOTTER
REPORT IN HARTWICK OF OTSEGO COUNTY...AND 6AM OBS IN
SYRACUSE...INDICATE THOUGH THAT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL
MANAGING TO OCCUR IN PLACES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER...WILL
PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND ACTUAL
BUFFALO 00Z SOUNDING/ CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS IF THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ICE CRYSTALS. MUCH OF THE TIME...WARMER THAN MINUS-10 CELSIUS
AND THUS CLOUDS MADE OF MAINLY SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS AND NOT ICE
CRYSTALS. YET WITHIN INDIVIDUAL BANDS...MOISTURE BRIEFLY DEEP
ENOUGH TO REACH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MANAGING SOME ICE
CRYSTALS. BEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE...AS
WELL AS SOME LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO FINGER LAKES AND
TOPOGRAPHY FORCING UPSLOPING. OUTSIDE OF INDIVIDUAL
BANDS...FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD. WHETHER SNOW OR ICE...ACCUMULATIONS OF EITHER
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...THOUGH ANY ICE WHATSOEVER WILL CAUSE SLICK
SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 10 AM FOR TWIN TIERS
NORTHWARD DUE TO CONTINUED AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...EXCEPT
STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS PREVIOUSLY
SCHEDULED WITH ENCROACHING DRIER AIR/LOWER DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO ERODE
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERN IN THOSE AREAS BY THEN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWERING AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH SATURATED LAYER GRADUALLY GETTING
THINNER...SO WITH TIME IT WILL BECOME HARDER TO SUPPORT -FZDZ
OUTSIDE OF THE FLURRY BANDS.

LAST OF FLURRIES/PATCHY -FZDZ WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY EVENING...BUT
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS DIURNAL RANGE. TEMPERATURES BARELY
GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...HIGHS IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THEN
TONIGHT...LOWS MAINLY IN LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ON SUNSHINE PROSPECTS. ALL MODELS SHOW VARYING
DEGREES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY LIFTING IT NORTH OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOWS BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. WITH ALMOST NO
WIND UP THROUGH 5,000 FEET, ON ONE HAND IT WOULD MAKE SENSE THIS
MOISTURE IS HARD TO SCOUR OUT DUE TO THE LACK OF MIXING/LOW SUN
ANGLE AND A PESKY INVERSION. ON THE OTHER HAND WE WON`T HAVE ANY
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE LAKE OR UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEAL WITH. ANOTHER
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS JUST HOW THICK WILL THE MOISTURE DEPTH BE.
IF YOU TOOK THE MODEL SOUNDINGS TO BE ANYWHERE CLOSE TO CORRECT,
THE LAYER OF MOISTURE CERTAINLY APPEARS THIN ENOUGH THAT SUNSHINE
IS LIKELY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE MODELS OFTEN DO A POOR JOB WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHEN IT IS THIS SHALLOW. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE
I HOPE YOU GET THE IDEA THAT WHILE SUN PROSPECTS ARE DECENT FOR
BOTH DAYS, IT IS VERY COMPLICATED. FOR NOW I LIKE THE IDEA OF GRADUALLY
THINNING CLOUDS SATURDAY OVER THE MORE FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL
AREAS OF NEPA. GRADUALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON I SHOW A TRANSITION
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF BRIEF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
MONDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY RAIN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, AND LASTLY A
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY ALONG WITH COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE STORM SYSTEM NEXT
WEEK WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THE BEST SHOT
FOR SNOWFALL WOULD BE ON CHRISTMAS ITSELF.

A DEEP TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY. TO
VARYING DEGREES THE GFS AND EURO MOVE MOISTURE OUR WAY LATER
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. I
GRADUALLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD,
FAVORING THE WETTER 0Z EURO VS. THE DRIER 0Z GFS. AT THE ONSET
LATE MONDAY, SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. QUICKLY
HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL CHANGE MOST OF THE AREA OVER TO
PLAIN RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL
LINGER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS
EAST OF I-81, AND ACROSS NORTHEAST PA.

AS A RESULT OF THE TROF MENTIONED ABOVE, A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND TRACK EITHER JUST WEST OR OVER
OUR AREA. ALL MODELS SHOW A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY. AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES TO OUR NORTH, MUCH
COLDER AIR WRAPS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE CHRISTMAS EVE INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY. WE MAY GET DRY SLOTTED IN THE CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN, LIMITING SNOWFALL CHANCES AT FIRST. HOWEVER
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BY
MIDDAY CHRISTMAS. SINCE THE GFS AND EURO MATCH UP WELL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LOW POSITION, STRENGTH, AND 1000-500 MB RH FIELDS,
I LEAN HEAVILY WITH EURO QPF AMOUNTS CHRISTMAS. WHILE NOT A BIG
SNOWFALL, EURO SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD GIVE US A DECENT SHOT AT A WHITE
GROUND FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS
NY STATE AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA, THIS MAY END UP BEING A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
THUS WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ON CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE NEXT
6-12 HOURS. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES DO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
A SLIGHT CATEGORY LIFTING OF CIGS THIS EVENING...AND SOME POSSIBLE
VFR WHERE SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE EROSION OF CLOUDS NEAR KAVP
AND KRME. OTHERWISE...MVFR/IFR OVERCAST RULES THE DAY. RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE ORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WANE...HOWEVER
THE FICKLE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AT TIMES INTO
TONIGHT. REALLY NO CONFIDENCE ATTM TO KEEP INCLUDING IN THE SFC
TAF FORECAST BEYOND THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING.
SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT PILOTS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER IN CLOUD
MIXED TO CLEAR ICING IN THE APPROACH PATTERNS...BUT SUB CLOUD ICE WILL BE
HIT AND MISS AT THE TERMINALS.

POOR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS.

SUN TO MON...BECOMING VFR CIG.

MON NGT TO WED...MVFR/IFR. MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING...THEN PERIODS
OF RAIN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/TAC
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...JAB







000
FXUS61 KBGM 191738
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1238 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TODAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
THE ADVISORY FOR THE FZDZ HAS EXPIRED. MOST OF THE OBSERVATIONS
NOW REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. RADAR SHOWING ONE MAIN WEAK
BAND OF PRECIP FROM CORTLAND TO WINDSOR. MOISTURE AND PRECIP
SHALLOW SO RETURNS MOSTLY CLOSE TO THE RADARS. WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A LARGE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
LITTLE TODAY AND REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING. POPS AND WEATHER
GRIDS LOOKED GOOD AND KEPT AS IS.

645 AM UPDATE...
WILL BE ABLE TO LET GO OF STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA FROM
ADVISORY AS EXPECTED WITH WIDENING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ERODING
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS THERE. MEANWHILE...REMAINDER OF ADVISORY
IN CENTRAL NY...AND SUSQUEHANNA- NORTHERN WAYNE PA...STILL
WARRANTED THROUGH 10 AM DUE TO CONTINUED VERY LIGHT NW-FLOW LAKE
MOISTURE BANDS PRODUCING FLURRIES AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THAT BEING SAID...SATELLITE IS SHOWING THAT THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED A FEW DEGREES...ENOUGH TO WHERE A GREATER
PROPORTION OF PRECIP IS NOW IN FORM OF FLURRIES...THAT
IS...DRIZZLE IS BECOMING MORE PATCHY WITH TIME. RECENT SPOTTER
REPORT IN HARTWICK OF OTSEGO COUNTY...AND 6AM OBS IN
SYRACUSE...INDICATE THOUGH THAT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL
MANAGING TO OCCUR IN PLACES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER...WILL
PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND ACTUAL
BUFFALO 00Z SOUNDING/ CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS IF THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ICE CRYSTALS. MUCH OF THE TIME...WARMER THAN MINUS-10 CELSIUS
AND THUS CLOUDS MADE OF MAINLY SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS AND NOT ICE
CRYSTALS. YET WITHIN INDIVIDUAL BANDS...MOISTURE BRIEFLY DEEP
ENOUGH TO REACH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MANAGING SOME ICE
CRYSTALS. BEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE...AS
WELL AS SOME LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO FINGER LAKES AND
TOPOGRAPHY FORCING UPSLOPING. OUTSIDE OF INDIVIDUAL
BANDS...FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD. WHETHER SNOW OR ICE...ACCUMULATIONS OF EITHER
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...THOUGH ANY ICE WHATSOEVER WILL CAUSE SLICK
SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 10 AM FOR TWIN TIERS
NORTHWARD DUE TO CONTINUED AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...EXCEPT
STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS PREVIOUSLY
SCHEDULED WITH ENCROACHING DRIER AIR/LOWER DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO ERODE
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERN IN THOSE AREAS BY THEN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWERING AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH SATURATED LAYER GRADUALLY GETTING
THINNER...SO WITH TIME IT WILL BECOME HARDER TO SUPPORT -FZDZ
OUTSIDE OF THE FLURRY BANDS.

LAST OF FLURRIES/PATCHY -FZDZ WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY EVENING...BUT
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS DIURNAL RANGE. TEMPERATURES BARELY
GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...HIGHS IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THEN
TONIGHT...LOWS MAINLY IN LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ON SUNSHINE PROSPECTS. ALL MODELS SHOW VARYING
DEGREES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY LIFTING IT NORTH OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOWS BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. WITH ALMOST NO
WIND UP THROUGH 5,000 FEET, ON ONE HAND IT WOULD MAKE SENSE THIS
MOISTURE IS HARD TO SCOUR OUT DUE TO THE LACK OF MIXING/LOW SUN
ANGLE AND A PESKY INVERSION. ON THE OTHER HAND WE WON`T HAVE ANY
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE LAKE OR UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEAL WITH. ANOTHER
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS JUST HOW THICK WILL THE MOISTURE DEPTH BE.
IF YOU TOOK THE MODEL SOUNDINGS TO BE ANYWHERE CLOSE TO CORRECT,
THE LAYER OF MOISTURE CERTAINLY APPEARS THIN ENOUGH THAT SUNSHINE
IS LIKELY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE MODELS OFTEN DO A POOR JOB WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHEN IT IS THIS SHALLOW. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE
I HOPE YOU GET THE IDEA THAT WHILE SUN PROSPECTS ARE DECENT FOR
BOTH DAYS, IT IS VERY COMPLICATED. FOR NOW I LIKE THE IDEA OF GRADUALLY
THINNING CLOUDS SATURDAY OVER THE MORE FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL
AREAS OF NEPA. GRADUALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON I SHOW A TRANSITION
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF BRIEF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
MONDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY RAIN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, AND LASTLY A
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY ALONG WITH COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE STORM SYSTEM NEXT
WEEK WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THE BEST SHOT
FOR SNOWFALL WOULD BE ON CHRISTMAS ITSELF.

A DEEP TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY. TO
VARYING DEGREES THE GFS AND EURO MOVE MOISTURE OUR WAY LATER
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. I
GRADUALLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD,
FAVORING THE WETTER 0Z EURO VS. THE DRIER 0Z GFS. AT THE ONSET
LATE MONDAY, SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. QUICKLY
HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL CHANGE MOST OF THE AREA OVER TO
PLAIN RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL
LINGER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS
EAST OF I-81, AND ACROSS NORTHEAST PA.

AS A RESULT OF THE TROF MENTIONED ABOVE, A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND TRACK EITHER JUST WEST OR OVER
OUR AREA. ALL MODELS SHOW A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY. AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES TO OUR NORTH, MUCH
COLDER AIR WRAPS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE CHRISTMAS EVE INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY. WE MAY GET DRY SLOTTED IN THE CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN, LIMITING SNOWFALL CHANCES AT FIRST. HOWEVER
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BY
MIDDAY CHRISTMAS. SINCE THE GFS AND EURO MATCH UP WELL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LOW POSITION, STRENGTH, AND 1000-500 MB RH FIELDS,
I LEAN HEAVILY WITH EURO QPF AMOUNTS CHRISTMAS. WHILE NOT A BIG
SNOWFALL, EURO SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD GIVE US A DECENT SHOT AT A WHITE
GROUND FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS
NY STATE AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA, THIS MAY END UP BEING A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
THUS WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ON CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE NEXT
6-12 HOURS. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES DO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
A SLIGHT CATEGORY LIFTING OF CIGS THIS EVENING...AND SOME POSSIBLE
VFR WHERE SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE EROSION OF CLOUDS NEAR KAVP
AND KRME. OTHERWISE...MVFR/IFR OVERCAST RULES THE DAY. RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE ORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WANE...HOWEVER
THE FICKLE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AT TIMES INTO
TONIGHT. REALLY NO CONFIDENCE ATTM TO KEEP INCLUDING IN THE SFC
TAF FORECAST BEYOND THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING.
SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT PILOTS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER IN CLOUD
MIXED TO CLEAR ICING IN THE APPROACH PATTERNS...BUT SUB CLOUD ICE WILL BE
HIT AND MISS AT THE TERMINALS.

POOR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS.

SUN TO MON...BECOMING VFR CIG.

MON NGT TO WED...MVFR/IFR. MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING...THEN PERIODS
OF RAIN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/TAC
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...JAB








000
FXUS61 KBGM 191515
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1015 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TODAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
THE ADVISORY FOR THE FZDZ HAS EXPIRED. MOST OF THE OBSERVATIONS
NOW REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. RADAR SHOWING ONE MAIN WEAK
BAND OF PRECIP FROM CORTLAND TO WINDSOR. MOISTURE AND PRECIP
SHALLOW SO RETURNS MOSTLY CLOSE TO THE RADARS. WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A LARGE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
LITTLE TODAY AND REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING. POPS AND WEATHER
GRIDS LOOKED GOOD AND KEPT AS IS.

645 AM UPDATE...
WILL BE ABLE TO LET GO OF STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA FROM
ADVISORY AS EXPECTED WITH WIDENING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ERODING
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS THERE. MEANWHILE...REMAINDER OF ADVISORY
IN CENTRAL NY...AND SUSQUEHANNA- NORTHERN WAYNE PA...STILL
WARRANTED THROUGH 10 AM DUE TO CONTINUED VERY LIGHT NW-FLOW LAKE
MOISTURE BANDS PRODUCING FLURRIES AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THAT BEING SAID...SATELLITE IS SHOWING THAT THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED A FEW DEGREES...ENOUGH TO WHERE A GREATER
PROPORTION OF PRECIP IS NOW IN FORM OF FLURRIES...THAT
IS...DRIZZLE IS BECOMING MORE PATCHY WITH TIME. RECENT SPOTTER
REPORT IN HARTWICK OF OTSEGO COUNTY...AND 6AM OBS IN
SYRACUSE...INDICATE THOUGH THAT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL
MANAGING TO OCCUR IN PLACES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER...WILL
PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND ACTUAL
BUFFALO 00Z SOUNDING/ CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS IF THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ICE CRYSTALS. MUCH OF THE TIME...WARMER THAN MINUS-10 CELSIUS
AND THUS CLOUDS MADE OF MAINLY SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS AND NOT ICE
CRYSTALS. YET WITHIN INDIVIDUAL BANDS...MOISTURE BRIEFLY DEEP
ENOUGH TO REACH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MANAGING SOME ICE
CRYSTALS. BEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE...AS
WELL AS SOME LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO FINGER LAKES AND
TOPOGRAPHY FORCING UPSLOPING. OUTSIDE OF INDIVIDUAL
BANDS...FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD. WHETHER SNOW OR ICE...ACCUMULATIONS OF EITHER
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...THOUGH ANY ICE WHATSOEVER WILL CAUSE SLICK
SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 10 AM FOR TWIN TIERS
NORTHWARD DUE TO CONTINUED AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...EXCEPT
STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS PREVIOUSLY
SCHEDULED WITH ENCROACHING DRIER AIR/LOWER DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO ERODE
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERN IN THOSE AREAS BY THEN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWERING AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH SATURATED LAYER GRADUALLY GETTING
THINNER...SO WITH TIME IT WILL BECOME HARDER TO SUPPORT -FZDZ
OUTSIDE OF THE FLURRY BANDS.

LAST OF FLURRIES/PATCHY -FZDZ WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY EVENING...BUT
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS DIURNAL RANGE. TEMPERATURES BARELY
GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...HIGHS IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THEN
TONIGHT...LOWS MAINLY IN LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ON SUNSHINE PROSPECTS. ALL MODELS SHOW VARYING
DEGREES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY LIFTING IT NORTH OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOWS BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. WITH ALMOST NO
WIND UP THROUGH 5,000 FEET, ON ONE HAND IT WOULD MAKE SENSE THIS
MOISTURE IS HARD TO SCOUR OUT DUE TO THE LACK OF MIXING/LOW SUN
ANGLE AND A PESKY INVERSION. ON THE OTHER HAND WE WON`T HAVE ANY
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE LAKE OR UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEAL WITH. ANOTHER
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS JUST HOW THICK WILL THE MOISTURE DEPTH BE.
IF YOU TOOK THE MODEL SOUNDINGS TO BE ANYWHERE CLOSE TO CORRECT,
THE LAYER OF MOISTURE CERTAINLY APPEARS THIN ENOUGH THAT SUNSHINE
IS LIKELY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE MODELS OFTEN DO A POOR JOB WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHEN IT IS THIS SHALLOW. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE
I HOPE YOU GET THE IDEA THAT WHILE SUN PROSPECTS ARE DECENT FOR
BOTH DAYS, IT IS VERY COMPLICATED. FOR NOW I LIKE THE IDEA OF GRADUALLY
THINNING CLOUDS SATURDAY OVER THE MORE FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL
AREAS OF NEPA. GRADUALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON I SHOW A TRANSITION
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF BRIEF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
MONDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY RAIN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, AND LASTLY A
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY ALONG WITH COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE STORM SYSTEM NEXT
WEEK WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THE BEST SHOT
FOR SNOWFALL WOULD BE ON CHRISTMAS ITSELF.

A DEEP TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY. TO
VARYING DEGREES THE GFS AND EURO MOVE MOISTURE OUR WAY LATER
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. I
GRADUALLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD,
FAVORING THE WETTER 0Z EURO VS. THE DRIER 0Z GFS. AT THE ONSET
LATE MONDAY, SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. QUICKLY
HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL CHANGE MOST OF THE AREA OVER TO
PLAIN RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL
LINGER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS
EAST OF I-81, AND ACROSS NORTHEAST PA.

AS A RESULT OF THE TROF MENTIONED ABOVE, A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND TRACK EITHER JUST WEST OR OVER
OUR AREA. ALL MODELS SHOW A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY. AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES TO OUR NORTH, MUCH
COLDER AIR WRAPS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE CHRISTMAS EVE INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY. WE MAY GET DRY SLOTTED IN THE CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN, LIMITING SNOWFALL CHANCES AT FIRST. HOWEVER
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BY
MIDDAY CHRISTMAS. SINCE THE GFS AND EURO MATCH UP WELL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LOW POSITION, STRENGTH, AND 1000-500 MB RH FIELDS,
I LEAN HEAVILY WITH EURO QPF AMOUNTS CHRISTMAS. WHILE NOT A BIG
SNOWFALL, EURO SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD GIVE US A DECENT SHOT AT A WHITE
GROUND FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS
NY STATE AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA, THIS MAY END UP BEING A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE..
MOIST CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD A SHALLOW CLOUD
LAYER THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT THAT KAVP SHOULD START TO
SCATTER OUT 03Z SAT ONWARD. INTERMITTENT -SN AT KITH-KBGM AND
-FZDZSN FOR KSYR THROUGH 15Z BUT WITH LIMITED DEGRADATION TO VIS
BECAUSE VERY LIGHT. MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST FOR ALL TERMINALS...FUEL ALT
REQ LEVEL KBGM- KSYR- KITH /EVEN BRIEFLY IFR CIG AT TIMES KITH
12Z-15Z/. WINDS GENERALLY NW AT 5-10 KTS THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT THROUGH MON...LINGERING MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL NY TERMINALS SAT MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MIXED PRECIP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/TAC
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 191515
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1015 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TODAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
THE ADVISORY FOR THE FZDZ HAS EXPIRED. MOST OF THE OBSERVATIONS
NOW REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. RADAR SHOWING ONE MAIN WEAK
BAND OF PRECIP FROM CORTLAND TO WINDSOR. MOISTURE AND PRECIP
SHALLOW SO RETURNS MOSTLY CLOSE TO THE RADARS. WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A LARGE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
LITTLE TODAY AND REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING. POPS AND WEATHER
GRIDS LOOKED GOOD AND KEPT AS IS.

645 AM UPDATE...
WILL BE ABLE TO LET GO OF STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA FROM
ADVISORY AS EXPECTED WITH WIDENING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ERODING
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS THERE. MEANWHILE...REMAINDER OF ADVISORY
IN CENTRAL NY...AND SUSQUEHANNA- NORTHERN WAYNE PA...STILL
WARRANTED THROUGH 10 AM DUE TO CONTINUED VERY LIGHT NW-FLOW LAKE
MOISTURE BANDS PRODUCING FLURRIES AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THAT BEING SAID...SATELLITE IS SHOWING THAT THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED A FEW DEGREES...ENOUGH TO WHERE A GREATER
PROPORTION OF PRECIP IS NOW IN FORM OF FLURRIES...THAT
IS...DRIZZLE IS BECOMING MORE PATCHY WITH TIME. RECENT SPOTTER
REPORT IN HARTWICK OF OTSEGO COUNTY...AND 6AM OBS IN
SYRACUSE...INDICATE THOUGH THAT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL
MANAGING TO OCCUR IN PLACES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER...WILL
PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND ACTUAL
BUFFALO 00Z SOUNDING/ CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS IF THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ICE CRYSTALS. MUCH OF THE TIME...WARMER THAN MINUS-10 CELSIUS
AND THUS CLOUDS MADE OF MAINLY SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS AND NOT ICE
CRYSTALS. YET WITHIN INDIVIDUAL BANDS...MOISTURE BRIEFLY DEEP
ENOUGH TO REACH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MANAGING SOME ICE
CRYSTALS. BEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE...AS
WELL AS SOME LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO FINGER LAKES AND
TOPOGRAPHY FORCING UPSLOPING. OUTSIDE OF INDIVIDUAL
BANDS...FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD. WHETHER SNOW OR ICE...ACCUMULATIONS OF EITHER
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...THOUGH ANY ICE WHATSOEVER WILL CAUSE SLICK
SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 10 AM FOR TWIN TIERS
NORTHWARD DUE TO CONTINUED AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...EXCEPT
STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS PREVIOUSLY
SCHEDULED WITH ENCROACHING DRIER AIR/LOWER DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO ERODE
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERN IN THOSE AREAS BY THEN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWERING AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH SATURATED LAYER GRADUALLY GETTING
THINNER...SO WITH TIME IT WILL BECOME HARDER TO SUPPORT -FZDZ
OUTSIDE OF THE FLURRY BANDS.

LAST OF FLURRIES/PATCHY -FZDZ WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY EVENING...BUT
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS DIURNAL RANGE. TEMPERATURES BARELY
GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...HIGHS IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THEN
TONIGHT...LOWS MAINLY IN LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ON SUNSHINE PROSPECTS. ALL MODELS SHOW VARYING
DEGREES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY LIFTING IT NORTH OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOWS BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. WITH ALMOST NO
WIND UP THROUGH 5,000 FEET, ON ONE HAND IT WOULD MAKE SENSE THIS
MOISTURE IS HARD TO SCOUR OUT DUE TO THE LACK OF MIXING/LOW SUN
ANGLE AND A PESKY INVERSION. ON THE OTHER HAND WE WON`T HAVE ANY
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE LAKE OR UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEAL WITH. ANOTHER
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS JUST HOW THICK WILL THE MOISTURE DEPTH BE.
IF YOU TOOK THE MODEL SOUNDINGS TO BE ANYWHERE CLOSE TO CORRECT,
THE LAYER OF MOISTURE CERTAINLY APPEARS THIN ENOUGH THAT SUNSHINE
IS LIKELY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE MODELS OFTEN DO A POOR JOB WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHEN IT IS THIS SHALLOW. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE
I HOPE YOU GET THE IDEA THAT WHILE SUN PROSPECTS ARE DECENT FOR
BOTH DAYS, IT IS VERY COMPLICATED. FOR NOW I LIKE THE IDEA OF GRADUALLY
THINNING CLOUDS SATURDAY OVER THE MORE FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL
AREAS OF NEPA. GRADUALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON I SHOW A TRANSITION
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF BRIEF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
MONDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY RAIN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, AND LASTLY A
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY ALONG WITH COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE STORM SYSTEM NEXT
WEEK WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THE BEST SHOT
FOR SNOWFALL WOULD BE ON CHRISTMAS ITSELF.

A DEEP TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY. TO
VARYING DEGREES THE GFS AND EURO MOVE MOISTURE OUR WAY LATER
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. I
GRADUALLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD,
FAVORING THE WETTER 0Z EURO VS. THE DRIER 0Z GFS. AT THE ONSET
LATE MONDAY, SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. QUICKLY
HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL CHANGE MOST OF THE AREA OVER TO
PLAIN RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL
LINGER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS
EAST OF I-81, AND ACROSS NORTHEAST PA.

AS A RESULT OF THE TROF MENTIONED ABOVE, A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND TRACK EITHER JUST WEST OR OVER
OUR AREA. ALL MODELS SHOW A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY. AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES TO OUR NORTH, MUCH
COLDER AIR WRAPS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE CHRISTMAS EVE INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY. WE MAY GET DRY SLOTTED IN THE CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN, LIMITING SNOWFALL CHANCES AT FIRST. HOWEVER
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BY
MIDDAY CHRISTMAS. SINCE THE GFS AND EURO MATCH UP WELL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LOW POSITION, STRENGTH, AND 1000-500 MB RH FIELDS,
I LEAN HEAVILY WITH EURO QPF AMOUNTS CHRISTMAS. WHILE NOT A BIG
SNOWFALL, EURO SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD GIVE US A DECENT SHOT AT A WHITE
GROUND FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS
NY STATE AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA, THIS MAY END UP BEING A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE..
MOIST CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD A SHALLOW CLOUD
LAYER THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT THAT KAVP SHOULD START TO
SCATTER OUT 03Z SAT ONWARD. INTERMITTENT -SN AT KITH-KBGM AND
-FZDZSN FOR KSYR THROUGH 15Z BUT WITH LIMITED DEGRADATION TO VIS
BECAUSE VERY LIGHT. MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST FOR ALL TERMINALS...FUEL ALT
REQ LEVEL KBGM- KSYR- KITH /EVEN BRIEFLY IFR CIG AT TIMES KITH
12Z-15Z/. WINDS GENERALLY NW AT 5-10 KTS THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT THROUGH MON...LINGERING MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL NY TERMINALS SAT MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MIXED PRECIP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/TAC
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 191146
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TODAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...
WILL BE ABLE TO LET GO OF STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA FROM
ADVISORY AS EXPECTED WITH WIDENING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ERODING
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS THERE. MEANWHILE...REMAINDER OF ADVISORY
IN CENTRAL NY...AND SUSQUEHANNA- NORTHERN WAYNE PA...STILL
WARRANTED THROUGH 10 AM DUE TO CONTINUED VERY LIGHT NW-FLOW LAKE
MOISTURE BANDS PRODUCING FLURRIES AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THAT BEING SAID...SATELLITE IS SHOWING THAT THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED A FEW DEGREES...ENOUGH TO WHERE A GREATER
PROPORTION OF PRECIP IS NOW IN FORM OF FLURRIES...THAT
IS...DRIZZLE IS BECOMING MORE PATCHY WITH TIME. RECENT SPOTTER
REPORT IN HARTWICK OF OTSEGO COUNTY...AND 6AM OBS IN
SYRACUSE...INDICATE THOUGH THAT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL
MANAGING TO OCCUR IN PLACES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER...WILL
PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND ACTUAL
BUFFALO 00Z SOUNDING/ CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS IF THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ICE CRYSTALS. MUCH OF THE TIME...WARMER THAN MINUS-10 CELSIUS
AND THUS CLOUDS MADE OF MAINLY SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS AND NOT ICE
CRYSTALS. YET WITHIN INDIVIDUAL BANDS...MOISTURE BRIEFLY DEEP
ENOUGH TO REACH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MANAGING SOME ICE
CRYSTALS. BEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE...AS
WELL AS SOME LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO FINGER LAKES AND
TOPOGRAPHY FORCING UPSLOPING. OUTSIDE OF INDIVIDUAL
BANDS...FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD. WHETHER SNOW OR ICE...ACCUMULATIONS OF EITHER
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...THOUGH ANY ICE WHATSOEVER WILL CAUSE SLICK
SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 10 AM FOR TWIN TIERS
NORTHWARD DUE TO CONTINUED AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...EXCEPT
STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS PREVIOUSLY
SCHEDULED WITH ENCROACHING DRIER AIR/LOWER DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO ERODE
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERN IN THOSE AREAS BY THEN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWERING AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH SATURATED LAYER GRADUALLY GETTING
THINNER...SO WITH TIME IT WILL BECOME HARDER TO SUPPORT -FZDZ
OUTSIDE OF THE FLURRY BANDS.

LAST OF FLURRIES/PATCHY -FZDZ WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY EVENING...BUT
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS DIURNAL RANGE. TEMPERATURES BARELY
GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...HIGHS IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THEN
TONIGHT...LOWS MAINLY IN LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ON SUNSHINE PROSPECTS. ALL MODELS SHOW VARYING
DEGREES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY LIFTING IT NORTH OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOWS BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. WITH ALMOST NO
WIND UP THROUGH 5,000 FEET, ON ONE HAND IT WOULD MAKE SENSE THIS
MOISTURE IS HARD TO SCOUR OUT DUE TO THE LACK OF MIXING/LOW SUN
ANGLE AND A PESKY INVERSION. ON THE OTHER HAND WE WON`T HAVE ANY
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE LAKE OR UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEAL WITH. ANOTHER
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS JUST HOW THICK WILL THE MOISTURE DEPTH BE.
IF YOU TOOK THE MODEL SOUNDINGS TO BE ANYWHERE CLOSE TO CORRECT,
THE LAYER OF MOISTURE CERTAINLY APPEARS THIN ENOUGH THAT SUNSHINE
IS LIKELY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE MODELS OFTEN DO A POOR JOB WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHEN IT IS THIS SHALLOW. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE
I HOPE YOU GET THE IDEA THAT WHILE SUN PROSPECTS ARE DECENT FOR
BOTH DAYS, IT IS VERY COMPLICATED. FOR NOW I LIKE THE IDEA OF GRADUALLY
THINNING CLOUDS SATURDAY OVER THE MORE FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL
AREAS OF NEPA. GRADUALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON I SHOW A TRANSITION
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF BRIEF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
MONDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY RAIN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, AND LASTLY A
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY ALONG WITH COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE STORM SYSTEM NEXT
WEEK WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THE BEST SHOT
FOR SNOWFALL WOULD BE ON CHRISTMAS ITSELF.

A DEEP TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY. TO
VARYING DEGREES THE GFS AND EURO MOVE MOISTURE OUR WAY LATER
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. I
GRADUALLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD,
FAVORING THE WETTER 0Z EURO VS. THE DRIER 0Z GFS. AT THE ONSET
LATE MONDAY, SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. QUICKLY
HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL CHANGE MOST OF THE AREA OVER TO
PLAIN RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL
LINGER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS
EAST OF I-81, AND ACROSS NORTHEAST PA.

AS A RESULT OF THE TROF MENTIONED ABOVE, A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND TRACK EITHER JUST WEST OR OVER
OUR AREA. ALL MODELS SHOW A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY. AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES TO OUR NORTH, MUCH
COLDER AIR WRAPS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE CHRISTMAS EVE INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY. WE MAY GET DRY SLOTTED IN THE CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN, LIMITING SNOWFALL CHANCES AT FIRST. HOWEVER
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BY
MIDDAY CHRISTMAS. SINCE THE GFS AND EURO MATCH UP WELL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LOW POSITION, STRENGTH, AND 1000-500 MB RH FIELDS,
I LEAN HEAVILY WITH EURO QPF AMOUNTS CHRISTMAS. WHILE NOT A BIG
SNOWFALL, EURO SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD GIVE US A DECENT SHOT AT A WHITE
GROUND FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS
NY STATE AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA, THIS MAY END UP BEING A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE..
MOIST CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD A SHALLOW CLOUD
LAYER THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT THAT KAVP SHOULD START TO
SCATTER OUT 03Z SAT ONWARD. INTERMITTENT -SN AT KITH-KBGM AND
-FZDZSN FOR KSYR THROUGH 15Z BUT WITH LIMITED DEGRADATION TO VIS
BECAUSE VERY LIGHT. MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST FOR ALL TERMINALS...FUEL ALT
REQ LEVEL KBGM- KSYR- KITH /EVEN BRIEFLY IFR CIG AT TIMES KITH
12Z-15Z/. WINDS GENERALLY NW AT 5-10 KTS THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT THROUGH MON...LINGERING MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL NY TERMINALS SAT MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MIXED PRECIP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ039-040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ015>018-023-025-036-044>046-055>057.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
     022-024-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 191146
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TODAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...
WILL BE ABLE TO LET GO OF STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA FROM
ADVISORY AS EXPECTED WITH WIDENING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ERODING
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS THERE. MEANWHILE...REMAINDER OF ADVISORY
IN CENTRAL NY...AND SUSQUEHANNA- NORTHERN WAYNE PA...STILL
WARRANTED THROUGH 10 AM DUE TO CONTINUED VERY LIGHT NW-FLOW LAKE
MOISTURE BANDS PRODUCING FLURRIES AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THAT BEING SAID...SATELLITE IS SHOWING THAT THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED A FEW DEGREES...ENOUGH TO WHERE A GREATER
PROPORTION OF PRECIP IS NOW IN FORM OF FLURRIES...THAT
IS...DRIZZLE IS BECOMING MORE PATCHY WITH TIME. RECENT SPOTTER
REPORT IN HARTWICK OF OTSEGO COUNTY...AND 6AM OBS IN
SYRACUSE...INDICATE THOUGH THAT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL
MANAGING TO OCCUR IN PLACES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER...WILL
PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND ACTUAL
BUFFALO 00Z SOUNDING/ CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS IF THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ICE CRYSTALS. MUCH OF THE TIME...WARMER THAN MINUS-10 CELSIUS
AND THUS CLOUDS MADE OF MAINLY SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS AND NOT ICE
CRYSTALS. YET WITHIN INDIVIDUAL BANDS...MOISTURE BRIEFLY DEEP
ENOUGH TO REACH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MANAGING SOME ICE
CRYSTALS. BEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE...AS
WELL AS SOME LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO FINGER LAKES AND
TOPOGRAPHY FORCING UPSLOPING. OUTSIDE OF INDIVIDUAL
BANDS...FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD. WHETHER SNOW OR ICE...ACCUMULATIONS OF EITHER
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...THOUGH ANY ICE WHATSOEVER WILL CAUSE SLICK
SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 10 AM FOR TWIN TIERS
NORTHWARD DUE TO CONTINUED AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...EXCEPT
STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS PREVIOUSLY
SCHEDULED WITH ENCROACHING DRIER AIR/LOWER DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO ERODE
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERN IN THOSE AREAS BY THEN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWERING AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH SATURATED LAYER GRADUALLY GETTING
THINNER...SO WITH TIME IT WILL BECOME HARDER TO SUPPORT -FZDZ
OUTSIDE OF THE FLURRY BANDS.

LAST OF FLURRIES/PATCHY -FZDZ WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY EVENING...BUT
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS DIURNAL RANGE. TEMPERATURES BARELY
GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...HIGHS IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THEN
TONIGHT...LOWS MAINLY IN LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ON SUNSHINE PROSPECTS. ALL MODELS SHOW VARYING
DEGREES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY LIFTING IT NORTH OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOWS BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. WITH ALMOST NO
WIND UP THROUGH 5,000 FEET, ON ONE HAND IT WOULD MAKE SENSE THIS
MOISTURE IS HARD TO SCOUR OUT DUE TO THE LACK OF MIXING/LOW SUN
ANGLE AND A PESKY INVERSION. ON THE OTHER HAND WE WON`T HAVE ANY
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE LAKE OR UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEAL WITH. ANOTHER
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS JUST HOW THICK WILL THE MOISTURE DEPTH BE.
IF YOU TOOK THE MODEL SOUNDINGS TO BE ANYWHERE CLOSE TO CORRECT,
THE LAYER OF MOISTURE CERTAINLY APPEARS THIN ENOUGH THAT SUNSHINE
IS LIKELY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE MODELS OFTEN DO A POOR JOB WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHEN IT IS THIS SHALLOW. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE
I HOPE YOU GET THE IDEA THAT WHILE SUN PROSPECTS ARE DECENT FOR
BOTH DAYS, IT IS VERY COMPLICATED. FOR NOW I LIKE THE IDEA OF GRADUALLY
THINNING CLOUDS SATURDAY OVER THE MORE FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL
AREAS OF NEPA. GRADUALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON I SHOW A TRANSITION
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF BRIEF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
MONDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY RAIN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, AND LASTLY A
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY ALONG WITH COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE STORM SYSTEM NEXT
WEEK WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THE BEST SHOT
FOR SNOWFALL WOULD BE ON CHRISTMAS ITSELF.

A DEEP TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY. TO
VARYING DEGREES THE GFS AND EURO MOVE MOISTURE OUR WAY LATER
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. I
GRADUALLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD,
FAVORING THE WETTER 0Z EURO VS. THE DRIER 0Z GFS. AT THE ONSET
LATE MONDAY, SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. QUICKLY
HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL CHANGE MOST OF THE AREA OVER TO
PLAIN RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL
LINGER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS
EAST OF I-81, AND ACROSS NORTHEAST PA.

AS A RESULT OF THE TROF MENTIONED ABOVE, A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND TRACK EITHER JUST WEST OR OVER
OUR AREA. ALL MODELS SHOW A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY. AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES TO OUR NORTH, MUCH
COLDER AIR WRAPS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE CHRISTMAS EVE INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY. WE MAY GET DRY SLOTTED IN THE CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN, LIMITING SNOWFALL CHANCES AT FIRST. HOWEVER
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BY
MIDDAY CHRISTMAS. SINCE THE GFS AND EURO MATCH UP WELL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LOW POSITION, STRENGTH, AND 1000-500 MB RH FIELDS,
I LEAN HEAVILY WITH EURO QPF AMOUNTS CHRISTMAS. WHILE NOT A BIG
SNOWFALL, EURO SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD GIVE US A DECENT SHOT AT A WHITE
GROUND FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS
NY STATE AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA, THIS MAY END UP BEING A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE..
MOIST CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD A SHALLOW CLOUD
LAYER THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT THAT KAVP SHOULD START TO
SCATTER OUT 03Z SAT ONWARD. INTERMITTENT -SN AT KITH-KBGM AND
-FZDZSN FOR KSYR THROUGH 15Z BUT WITH LIMITED DEGRADATION TO VIS
BECAUSE VERY LIGHT. MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST FOR ALL TERMINALS...FUEL ALT
REQ LEVEL KBGM- KSYR- KITH /EVEN BRIEFLY IFR CIG AT TIMES KITH
12Z-15Z/. WINDS GENERALLY NW AT 5-10 KTS THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT THROUGH MON...LINGERING MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL NY TERMINALS SAT MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MIXED PRECIP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ039-040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ015>018-023-025-036-044>046-055>057.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
     022-024-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 190930
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
430 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TODAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...
CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER...WILL
PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND ACTUAL
BUFFALO 00Z SOUNDING/ CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS IF THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ICE CRYSTALS. MUCH OF THE TIME...WARMER THAN MINUS-10 CELSIUS
AND THUS CLOUDS MADE OF MAINLY SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS AND NOT ICE
CRYSTALS. YET WITHIN INDIVIDUAL BANDS...MOISTURE BRIEFLY DEEP
ENOUGH TO REACH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MANAGING SOME ICE
CRYSTALS. BEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE...AS
WELL AS SOME LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO FINGER LAKES AND
TOPOGRAPHY FORCING UPSLOPING. OUTSIDE OF INDIVIDUAL
BANDS...FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD. WHETHER SNOW OR ICE...ACCUMULATIONS OF EITHER
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...THOUGH ANY ICE WHATSOEVER WILL CAUSE SLICK
SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 10 AM FOR TWIN TIERS
NORTHWARD DUE TO CONTINUED AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...EXCEPT
STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS PREVIOUSLY
SCHEDULED WITH ENCROACHING DRIER AIR/LOWER DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO ERODE
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERN IN THOSE AREAS BY THEN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWERING AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH SATURATED LAYER GRADUALLY GETTING
THINNER...SO WITH TIME IT WILL BECOME HARDER TO SUPPORT -FZDZ
OUTSIDE OF THE FLURRY BANDS.

LAST OF FLURRIES/PATCHY -FZDZ WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY EVENING...BUT
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS DIURNAL RANGE. TEMPERATURES BARELY
GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...HIGHS IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THEN
TONIGHT...LOWS MAINLY IN LOWER 20S.



&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ON SUNSHINE PROSPECTS. ALL MODELS SHOW VARYING
DEGREES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY LIFTING IT NORTH OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOWS BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. WITH ALMOST NO
WIND UP THROUGH 5,000 FEET, ON ONE HAND IT WOULD MAKE SENSE THIS
MOISTURE IS HARD TO SCOUR OUT DUE TO THE LACK OF MIXING/LOW SUN
ANGLE AND A PESKY INVERSION. ON THE OTHER HAND WE WON`T HAVE ANY
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE LAKE OR UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEAL WITH. ANOTHER
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS JUST HOW THICK WILL THE MOISTURE DEPTH BE.
IF YOU TOOK THE MODEL SOUNDINGS TO BE ANYWHERE CLOSE TO CORRECT,
THE LAYER OF MOISTURE CERTAINLY APPEARS THIN ENOUGH THAT SUNSHINE
IS LIKELY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE MODELS OFTEN DO A POOR JOB WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHEN IT IS THIS SHALLOW. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE
I HOPE YOU GET THE IDEA THAT WHILE SUN PROSPECTS ARE DECENT FOR
BOTH DAYS, IT IS VERY COMPLICATED. FOR NOW I LIKE THE IDEA OF GRADUALLY
THINNING CLOUDS SATURDAY OVER THE MORE FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL
AREAS OF NEPA. GRADUALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON I SHOW A TRANSITION
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF BRIEF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
MONDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY RAIN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, AND LASTLY A
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY ALONG WITH COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE STORM SYSTEM NEXT
WEEK WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THE BEST SHOT
FOR SNOWFALL WOULD BE ON CHRISTMAS ITSELF.

A DEEP TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY. TO
VARYING DEGREES THE GFS AND EURO MOVE MOISTURE OUR WAY LATER
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. I
GRADUALLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD,
FAVORING THE WETTER 0Z EURO VS. THE DRIER 0Z GFS. AT THE ONSET
LATE MONDAY, SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. QUICKLY
HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL CHANGE MOST OF THE AREA OVER TO
PLAIN RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL
LINGER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS
EAST OF I-81, AND ACROSS NORTHEAST PA.

AS A RESULT OF THE TROF MENTIONED ABOVE, A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND TRACK EITHER JUST WEST OR OVER
OUR AREA. ALL MODELS SHOW A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY. AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES TO OUR NORTH, MUCH
COLDER AIR WRAPS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE CHRISTMAS EVE INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY. WE MAY GET DRY SLOTTED IN THE CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN, LIMITING SNOWFALL CHANCES AT FIRST. HOWEVER
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BY
MIDDAY CHRISTMAS. SINCE THE GFS AND EURO MATCH UP WELL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LOW POSITION, STRENGTH, AND 1000-500 MB RH FIELDS,
I LEAN HEAVILY WITH EURO QPF AMOUNTS CHRISTMAS. WHILE NOT A BIG
SNOWFALL, EURO SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD GIVE US A DECENT SHOT AT A WHITE
GROUND FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS
NY STATE AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA, THIS MAY END UP BEING A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE..
MOIST CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD A SHALLOW
CLOUD LAYER THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH INTERMITTENT -SHSN AND -FZDZ
MAINLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST...FUEL ALT REQ MVFR LEVEL
FOR MOST INITIALLY. HOWEVER...HILLTOP SITES KBGM-KITH TO EVEN BE
AT IFR-LIFR CIG AT TIMES THIS MORNING. VIS IN THE VERY LIGHT
PRECIP THIS MORNING MAINLY MVFR TO VFR. WINDS GENERALLY NW AT
5-10 KTS THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT THROUGH MON...LINGERING CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL
NY TERMINALS SAT MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MIXED PRECIP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 190930
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
430 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TODAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...
CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER...WILL
PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND ACTUAL
BUFFALO 00Z SOUNDING/ CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS IF THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ICE CRYSTALS. MUCH OF THE TIME...WARMER THAN MINUS-10 CELSIUS
AND THUS CLOUDS MADE OF MAINLY SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS AND NOT ICE
CRYSTALS. YET WITHIN INDIVIDUAL BANDS...MOISTURE BRIEFLY DEEP
ENOUGH TO REACH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MANAGING SOME ICE
CRYSTALS. BEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE...AS
WELL AS SOME LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO FINGER LAKES AND
TOPOGRAPHY FORCING UPSLOPING. OUTSIDE OF INDIVIDUAL
BANDS...FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD. WHETHER SNOW OR ICE...ACCUMULATIONS OF EITHER
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...THOUGH ANY ICE WHATSOEVER WILL CAUSE SLICK
SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 10 AM FOR TWIN TIERS
NORTHWARD DUE TO CONTINUED AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...EXCEPT
STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS PREVIOUSLY
SCHEDULED WITH ENCROACHING DRIER AIR/LOWER DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO ERODE
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERN IN THOSE AREAS BY THEN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWERING AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH SATURATED LAYER GRADUALLY GETTING
THINNER...SO WITH TIME IT WILL BECOME HARDER TO SUPPORT -FZDZ
OUTSIDE OF THE FLURRY BANDS.

LAST OF FLURRIES/PATCHY -FZDZ WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY EVENING...BUT
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS DIURNAL RANGE. TEMPERATURES BARELY
GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...HIGHS IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THEN
TONIGHT...LOWS MAINLY IN LOWER 20S.



&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ON SUNSHINE PROSPECTS. ALL MODELS SHOW VARYING
DEGREES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY LIFTING IT NORTH OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOWS BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. WITH ALMOST NO
WIND UP THROUGH 5,000 FEET, ON ONE HAND IT WOULD MAKE SENSE THIS
MOISTURE IS HARD TO SCOUR OUT DUE TO THE LACK OF MIXING/LOW SUN
ANGLE AND A PESKY INVERSION. ON THE OTHER HAND WE WON`T HAVE ANY
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE LAKE OR UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEAL WITH. ANOTHER
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS JUST HOW THICK WILL THE MOISTURE DEPTH BE.
IF YOU TOOK THE MODEL SOUNDINGS TO BE ANYWHERE CLOSE TO CORRECT,
THE LAYER OF MOISTURE CERTAINLY APPEARS THIN ENOUGH THAT SUNSHINE
IS LIKELY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE MODELS OFTEN DO A POOR JOB WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHEN IT IS THIS SHALLOW. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE
I HOPE YOU GET THE IDEA THAT WHILE SUN PROSPECTS ARE DECENT FOR
BOTH DAYS, IT IS VERY COMPLICATED. FOR NOW I LIKE THE IDEA OF GRADUALLY
THINNING CLOUDS SATURDAY OVER THE MORE FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL
AREAS OF NEPA. GRADUALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON I SHOW A TRANSITION
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF BRIEF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
MONDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY RAIN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, AND LASTLY A
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY ALONG WITH COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE STORM SYSTEM NEXT
WEEK WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THE BEST SHOT
FOR SNOWFALL WOULD BE ON CHRISTMAS ITSELF.

A DEEP TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY. TO
VARYING DEGREES THE GFS AND EURO MOVE MOISTURE OUR WAY LATER
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. I
GRADUALLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD,
FAVORING THE WETTER 0Z EURO VS. THE DRIER 0Z GFS. AT THE ONSET
LATE MONDAY, SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. QUICKLY
HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL CHANGE MOST OF THE AREA OVER TO
PLAIN RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL
LINGER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS
EAST OF I-81, AND ACROSS NORTHEAST PA.

AS A RESULT OF THE TROF MENTIONED ABOVE, A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND TRACK EITHER JUST WEST OR OVER
OUR AREA. ALL MODELS SHOW A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY. AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES TO OUR NORTH, MUCH
COLDER AIR WRAPS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE CHRISTMAS EVE INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY. WE MAY GET DRY SLOTTED IN THE CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN, LIMITING SNOWFALL CHANCES AT FIRST. HOWEVER
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BY
MIDDAY CHRISTMAS. SINCE THE GFS AND EURO MATCH UP WELL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LOW POSITION, STRENGTH, AND 1000-500 MB RH FIELDS,
I LEAN HEAVILY WITH EURO QPF AMOUNTS CHRISTMAS. WHILE NOT A BIG
SNOWFALL, EURO SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD GIVE US A DECENT SHOT AT A WHITE
GROUND FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS
NY STATE AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA, THIS MAY END UP BEING A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE..
MOIST CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD A SHALLOW
CLOUD LAYER THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH INTERMITTENT -SHSN AND -FZDZ
MAINLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST...FUEL ALT REQ MVFR LEVEL
FOR MOST INITIALLY. HOWEVER...HILLTOP SITES KBGM-KITH TO EVEN BE
AT IFR-LIFR CIG AT TIMES THIS MORNING. VIS IN THE VERY LIGHT
PRECIP THIS MORNING MAINLY MVFR TO VFR. WINDS GENERALLY NW AT
5-10 KTS THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT THROUGH MON...LINGERING CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL
NY TERMINALS SAT MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MIXED PRECIP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 190642
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 AM UPDATE...
CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER...WILL
PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND ACTUAL
BUFFALO 00Z SOUNDING/ CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS IF THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ICE CRYSTALS. MUCH OF THE TIME...WARMER THAN MINUS-10 CELSIUS
AND THUS CLOUDS MADE OF MAINLY SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS AND NOT ICE
CRYSTALS. YET WITHIN INDIVIDUAL BANDS...MOISTURE BRIEFLY DEEP
ENOUGH TO REACH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MANAGING SOME ICE
CRYSTALS. BEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE...AS
WELL AS SOME LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO FINGER LAKES AND
TOPOGRAPHY FORCING UPSLOPING. OUTSIDE OF INDIVIDUAL
BANDS...FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD. WHETHER SNOW OR ICE...ACCUMULATIONS OF EITHER
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...THOUGH ANY ICE WHATSOEVER WILL CAUSE SLICK
SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...PRIMARILY FOR LIGHT GLAZE FROM FREEZING
DRIZZLE...CURRENTLY RUNS UNTIL 7 AM FOR TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWERING TODAY...WITH SATURATED LAYER GRADUALLY
GETTING THINNER...SO WITH TIME IT WILL BECOME HARDER TO SUPPORT
-FZDZ OUTSIDE THE FLURRY BANDS. HOWEVER...SOME PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY
WILL STILL HAVE -FZDZ THREAT BEYOND 7 AM WITH RELATIVELY MORE
PERSISTENT MOISTURE AND UPSLOPING...AND SO WE WILL HAVE TO
CONSIDER EXTENDING AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE ADVISORY FARTHER OUT
IN TIME.

LAST OF FLURRIES AND PERHAPS PATCHY -FZDZ WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY
EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS DIURNAL RANGE.
TEMPERATURES BARELY GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...HIGHS IN UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S. THEN TONIGHT...LOWS MAINLY IN LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER WITH
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. SATURDAY STILL WILL SEE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUD
COVER ESPECIALLY ACRS SC NY AND NE PA. CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP MORE
FOR SUNDAY AS PER MODEL GUIDC. FOR NOW HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR SATURDAY AND PC FOR SUNDAY. CERTAINLY THE WEEKEND HOLDS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING OUT OF THIS SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING
CLOUDY PATTERN IN OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...

UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON LOCATION AND STRENGTH
OF STORMS. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT DRY THEN A WEAK WAVE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY
TO TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SO A MIX OF
PRECIP TYPES. MOST LIKELY SNOW TO RAIN. DEEP SW FLOW SO WARMING
INTO 40S DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. STRONGER WAVE WITH
A BOMBING COASTAL STORM WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. WED
NGT ENOUGH COLD AIR COMES IN TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THU. A LONG WAY OFF SO THIS TIMING AND
SCENARIO COULD CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE..
MOIST CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD A SHALLOW
CLOUD LAYER THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH INTERMITTENT -SHSN AND -FZDZ
MAINLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST...FUEL ALT REQ MVFR LEVEL
FOR MOST INITIALLY. HOWEVER...HILLTOP SITES KBGM-KITH TO EVEN BE
AT IFR-LIFR CIG AT TIMES THIS MORNING. VIS IN THE VERY LIGHT
PRECIP THIS MORNING MAINLY MVFR TO VFR. WINDS GENERALLY NW AT
5-10 KTS THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT THROUGH MON...LINGERING CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL
NY TERMINALS SAT MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MIXED PRECIP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 190255
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
955 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, FLURRIES AND PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
955 PM UPDATE...
LK EFFECT FRZG DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING TONIGHT AND HAS RESULTED IN
SLIPPERY ROADS ACRS THE AREA, THUS HV OPTED TO ISSUE WINTER WX
ADVISORY. CAN SEE ECHOES ON RADAR LINING UP WITH FINGER LKS AS NW
FLOW CONTINUES OVR CNTRL NY AND NRN TIER OF PA. WL RUN IT THRU
DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH MID SHIFT HVG THE OPTION TO EXPAND IT FURTHER
IN TIME. MOST HIRES AND MED RANGE MODELS SHOW QPF DIMINISHING BY
18Z FRIDAY AND MAY BCM LESS WIDESPREAD AFT 12Z SO THAT ADVISORY
CAN BE DROPPED. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...

715 PM UPDATE...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOPRES SITTING OVR NEW BRUNSWICK WITH SFC HIGH
NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. THIS PUTS CWA SQUARELY IN NW FLOW. STRONG
INVERSION ARND 5KFT PER KBUF 00Z RAOB TELLS THE ENTIRE STORY OF
ONGOING WX. SATURATED AIRMASS BLO THIS INVERSION IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR PCPN ACRS THE AREA. HWVR WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO MOISTURE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE SEEING VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ICE CRYSTALS THIS
EVNG.

BUFKIT SNDGS ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL AS RADAR POPUP SKEW-T
FEATURE THUS WL CONTINUE WITH SNOW SHOWER/FRZG DRIZZLE MENTION
OVRNGT. WL EVALUATE OBS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF ICING WITH
VLYS COOLING DOWN AOB FRZG TONIGHT. PLAN TO JUST KEEP GOING WITH
SPS DUE TO PATCHY NATURE OF FZDZ BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS
FOR POSSIBLY UPGRADING TO A WINTER WX ADVISORY. NO CHGS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE
REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS INTO TONIGHT. ACARS DATA SHOWS THE
TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION BTWN -7C AND -8C AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE INVERSION HGT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSTANT THRU THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE
TOP BETWEEN -7C AND -9C. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GLACIATION OF
CLOUDS AT THESE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS ALSO A SIZABLE
CHANCE THAT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SUPERCOOLED. INDEED WRN NY AND WRN
PA ARE NOW SEEING PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HENCE HAVE
A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NRN PA AND C NY GRIDS. VALLEYS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN THESE AREAS. LATER TONIGHT ALL AREAS FROM THE NRN TIER
OF PA TO C NY WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SPS RUNS
UNTIL 10 PM. NEXT SHIFT CAN ACCESS WHETHER ANOTHER IS NEEDED.
AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FZDZ WILL BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO
OPTED FOR AN SPS INSTEAD OF A WINTER WX ADVY TO COVER.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN CLOUDY ACRS ALL OF NE PA AND C NY. THERE WILL
BE SOME PARTIAL CLRG IN NE PA AND SRN SULLIVAN CO WHERE
DOWNSLOPING PREVAILS. THE MOIST LAYER UNDER THE INVERSION WILL BE
A BIT SHALLOWER BUT STILL HAVE CHC FOR FLURRIES AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR MOST OF FRIDAY IN C NY/FAR
NRN PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...INVERSION IS PUSHED DOWN A LITTLE FARTHER AND
WE WIND DOWN ANY LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
THE EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER WITH
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. SATURDAY STILL WILL SEE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUD
COVER ESPECIALLY ACRS SC NY AND NE PA. CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP
MORE FOR SUNDAY AS PER MODEL GUIDC. FOR NOW HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR SATURDAY AND PC FOR SUNDAY. CERTAINLY THE WEEKEND HOLDS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING OUT OF THIS SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING
CLOUDY PATTERN IN OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...

UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON LOCATION AND STRENGTH
OF STORMS. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT DRY THEN A WEAK WAVE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY
TO TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SO A MIX OF
PRECIP TYPES. MOST LIKELY SNOW TO RAIN. DEEP SW FLOW SO WARMING
INTO 40S DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. STRONGER WAVE WITH
A BOMBING COASTAL STORM WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. WED
NGT ENOUGH COLD AIR COMES IN TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THU. A LONG WAY OFF SO THIS TIMING AND
SCENARIO COULD CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 630 PM... LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED CLOUDY WEATHER WILL SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR
EXCEPT IFR ON THE HILL-TOP AIRPORTS AT BGM AND ITH. VSBYS WILL
RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS AT TIMES IN LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AREAS OF VFR CIGS DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT THROUGH MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO TUE...MVFR IN PRECIP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ038>040.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVF
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MSE/TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 190255
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
955 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, FLURRIES AND PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
955 PM UPDATE...
LK EFFECT FRZG DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING TONIGHT AND HAS RESULTED IN
SLIPPERY ROADS ACRS THE AREA, THUS HV OPTED TO ISSUE WINTER WX
ADVISORY. CAN SEE ECHOES ON RADAR LINING UP WITH FINGER LKS AS NW
FLOW CONTINUES OVR CNTRL NY AND NRN TIER OF PA. WL RUN IT THRU
DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH MID SHIFT HVG THE OPTION TO EXPAND IT FURTHER
IN TIME. MOST HIRES AND MED RANGE MODELS SHOW QPF DIMINISHING BY
18Z FRIDAY AND MAY BCM LESS WIDESPREAD AFT 12Z SO THAT ADVISORY
CAN BE DROPPED. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...

715 PM UPDATE...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOPRES SITTING OVR NEW BRUNSWICK WITH SFC HIGH
NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. THIS PUTS CWA SQUARELY IN NW FLOW. STRONG
INVERSION ARND 5KFT PER KBUF 00Z RAOB TELLS THE ENTIRE STORY OF
ONGOING WX. SATURATED AIRMASS BLO THIS INVERSION IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR PCPN ACRS THE AREA. HWVR WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO MOISTURE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE SEEING VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ICE CRYSTALS THIS
EVNG.

BUFKIT SNDGS ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL AS RADAR POPUP SKEW-T
FEATURE THUS WL CONTINUE WITH SNOW SHOWER/FRZG DRIZZLE MENTION
OVRNGT. WL EVALUATE OBS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF ICING WITH
VLYS COOLING DOWN AOB FRZG TONIGHT. PLAN TO JUST KEEP GOING WITH
SPS DUE TO PATCHY NATURE OF FZDZ BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS
FOR POSSIBLY UPGRADING TO A WINTER WX ADVISORY. NO CHGS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE
REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS INTO TONIGHT. ACARS DATA SHOWS THE
TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION BTWN -7C AND -8C AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE INVERSION HGT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSTANT THRU THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE
TOP BETWEEN -7C AND -9C. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GLACIATION OF
CLOUDS AT THESE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS ALSO A SIZABLE
CHANCE THAT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SUPERCOOLED. INDEED WRN NY AND WRN
PA ARE NOW SEEING PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HENCE HAVE
A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NRN PA AND C NY GRIDS. VALLEYS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN THESE AREAS. LATER TONIGHT ALL AREAS FROM THE NRN TIER
OF PA TO C NY WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SPS RUNS
UNTIL 10 PM. NEXT SHIFT CAN ACCESS WHETHER ANOTHER IS NEEDED.
AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FZDZ WILL BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO
OPTED FOR AN SPS INSTEAD OF A WINTER WX ADVY TO COVER.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN CLOUDY ACRS ALL OF NE PA AND C NY. THERE WILL
BE SOME PARTIAL CLRG IN NE PA AND SRN SULLIVAN CO WHERE
DOWNSLOPING PREVAILS. THE MOIST LAYER UNDER THE INVERSION WILL BE
A BIT SHALLOWER BUT STILL HAVE CHC FOR FLURRIES AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR MOST OF FRIDAY IN C NY/FAR
NRN PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...INVERSION IS PUSHED DOWN A LITTLE FARTHER AND
WE WIND DOWN ANY LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
THE EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER WITH
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. SATURDAY STILL WILL SEE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUD
COVER ESPECIALLY ACRS SC NY AND NE PA. CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP
MORE FOR SUNDAY AS PER MODEL GUIDC. FOR NOW HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR SATURDAY AND PC FOR SUNDAY. CERTAINLY THE WEEKEND HOLDS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING OUT OF THIS SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING
CLOUDY PATTERN IN OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...

UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON LOCATION AND STRENGTH
OF STORMS. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT DRY THEN A WEAK WAVE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY
TO TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SO A MIX OF
PRECIP TYPES. MOST LIKELY SNOW TO RAIN. DEEP SW FLOW SO WARMING
INTO 40S DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. STRONGER WAVE WITH
A BOMBING COASTAL STORM WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. WED
NGT ENOUGH COLD AIR COMES IN TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THU. A LONG WAY OFF SO THIS TIMING AND
SCENARIO COULD CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 630 PM... LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED CLOUDY WEATHER WILL SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR
EXCEPT IFR ON THE HILL-TOP AIRPORTS AT BGM AND ITH. VSBYS WILL
RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS AT TIMES IN LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AREAS OF VFR CIGS DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT THROUGH MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO TUE...MVFR IN PRECIP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ038>040.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVF
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MSE/TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 190013
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
713 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, FLURRIES AND PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOPRES SITTING OVR NEW BRUNSWICK WITH SFC HIGH
NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. THIS PUTS CWA SQUARELY IN NW FLOW. STRONG
INVERSION ARND 5KFT PER KBUF 00Z RAOB TELLS THE ENTIRE STORY OF
ONGOING WX. SATURATED AIRMASS BLO THIS INVERSION IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR PCPN ACRS THE AREA. HWVR WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO MOISTURE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE SEEING VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ICE CRYSTALS THIS
EVNG.

BUFKIT SNDGS ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL AS RADAR POPUP SKEW-T
FEATURE THUS WL CONTINUE WITH SNOW SHOWER/FRZG DRIZZLE MENTION
OVRNGT. WL EVALUATE OBS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF ICING WITH
VLYS COOLING DOWN AOB FRZG TONIGHT. PLAN TO JUST KEEP GOING WITH
SPS DUE TO PATCHY NATURE OF FZDZ BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS
FOR POSSIBLY UPGRADING TO A WINTER WX ADVISORY. NO CHGS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE
REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS INTO TONIGHT. ACARS DATA SHOWS THE
TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION BTWN -7C AND -8C AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE INVERSION HGT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSTANT THRU THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE
TOP BETWEEN -7C AND -9C. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GLACIATION OF
CLOUDS AT THESE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS ALSO A SIZABLE
CHANCE THAT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SUPERCOOLED. INDEED WRN NY AND WRN
PA ARE NOW SEEING PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HENCE HAVE
A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NRN PA AND C NY GRIDS. VALLEYS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN THESE AREAS. LATER TONIGHT ALL AREAS FROM THE NRN TIER
OF PA TO C NY WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SPS RUNS
UNTIL 10 PM. NEXT SHIFT CAN ACCESS WHETHER ANOTHER IS NEEDED.
AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FZDZ WILL BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO
OPTED FOR AN SPS INSTEAD OF A WINTER WX ADVY TO COVER.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN CLOUDY ACRS ALL OF NE PA AND C NY. THERE WILL
BE SOME PARTIAL CLRG IN NE PA AND SRN SULLIVAN CO WHERE
DOWNSLOPING PREVAILS. THE MOIST LAYER UNDER THE INVERSION WILL BE
A BIT SHALLOWER BUT STILL HAVE CHC FOR FLURRIES AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR MOST OF FRIDAY IN C NY/FAR
NRN PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...INVERSION IS PUSHED DOWN A LITTLE FARTHER AND
WE WIND DOWN ANY LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
THE EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER WITH
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. SATURDAY STILL WILL SEE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUD
COVER ESPECIALLY ACRS SC NY AND NE PA. CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP
MORE FOR SUNDAY AS PER MODEL GUIDC. FOR NOW HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR SATURDAY AND PC FOR SUNDAY. CERTAINLY THE WEEKEND HOLDS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING OUT OF THIS SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING
CLOUDY PATTERN IN OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...

UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON LOCATION AND STRENGTH
OF STORMS. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT DRY THEN A WEAK WAVE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY
TO TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SO A MIX OF
PRECIP TYPES. MOST LIKELY SNOW TO RAIN. DEEP SW FLOW SO WARMING
INTO 40S DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. STRONGER WAVE WITH
A BOMBING COASTAL STORM WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. WED
NGT ENOUGH COLD AIR COMES IN TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THU. A LONG WAY OFF SO THIS TIMING AND
SCENARIO COULD CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 630 PM... LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED CLOUDY WEATHER WILL SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR
EXCEPT IFR ON THE HILL-TOP AIRPORTS AT BGM AND ITH. VSBYS WILL
RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS AT TIMES IN LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AREAS OF VFR CIGS DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT THROUGH MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO TUE...MVFR IN PRECIP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVF
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MSE/TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 182348
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, FLURRIES AND PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES FOR THE WEEKEEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE
REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS INTO TONIGHT. ACARS DATA SHOWS THE
TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION BTWN -7C AND -8C AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE INVERSION HGHT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSTANT THRU THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE
TOP BETWEEN -7C AND -9C. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GLACIATION OF
CLOUDS AT THESE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS ALSO A SIZABLE
CHANCE THAT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SUPERCOOLED. INDEED WRN NY AND WRN
PA ARE NOW SEEING PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HENCE HAVE
A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NRN PA AND C NY GRIDS. VALLEYS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN THESE AREAS. LATER TONIGHT ALL AREAS FROM THE NRN TIER
OF PA TO C NY WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SPS RUNS
UNTIL 10 PM. NEXT SHIFT CAN ACCESS WHETHER ANOTHER IS NEEDED.
AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FZDZ WILL BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO
OPTED FOR AN SPS INSTEAD OF A WINTER WX ADVY TO COVER.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN CLOUDY ACRS ALL OF NE PA AND C NY. THERE WILL
BE SOME PARTIAL CLRG IN NE PA AND SRN SULLIVAN CO WHERE
DOWNSLOPING PREVAILS. THE MOIST LAYER UNDER THE INVERSION WILL BE
A BIT SHALLOWER BUT STILL HAVE CHC FOR FLURRIES AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR MOST OF FRIDAY IN C NY/FAR
NRN PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...INVERSION IS PUSHED DOWN A LITTLE FARTHER AND
WE WIND DOWN ANY LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
THE EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER WITH
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. SATURDAY STILL WILL SEE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUD
COVER ESPECIALLY ACRS SC NY AND NE PA. CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP
MORE FOR SUNDAY AS PER MODEL GUIDC. FOR NOW HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR SATURDAY AND PC FOR SUNDAY. CERTAINLY THE WEEKEND HOLDS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING OUT OF THIS SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING
CLOUDY PATTERN IN OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...

UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON LOCATION AND STRENGTH
OF STORMS. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT DRY THEN A WEAK WAVE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY
TO TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SO A MIX OF
PRECIP TYPES. MOST LIKELY SNOW TO RAIN. DEEP SW FLOW SO WARMING
INTO 40S DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. STRONGER WAVE WITH
A BOMBING COASTAL STORM WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. WED
NGT ENOUGH COLD AIR COMES IN TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THU. A LONG WAY OFF SO THIS TIMING AND
SCENARIO COULD CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 630 PM... LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED CLOUDY WEATHER WILL SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR
EXCEPT IFR ON THE HILL-TOP AIRPORTS AT BGM AND ITH. VSBYS WILL
RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS AT TIMES IN LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AREAS OF VFR CIGS DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT THROUGH MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO TUE...MVFR IN PRECIP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MSE/TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 182348
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, FLURRIES AND PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES FOR THE WEEKEEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE
REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS INTO TONIGHT. ACARS DATA SHOWS THE
TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION BTWN -7C AND -8C AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE INVERSION HGHT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSTANT THRU THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE
TOP BETWEEN -7C AND -9C. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GLACIATION OF
CLOUDS AT THESE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS ALSO A SIZABLE
CHANCE THAT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SUPERCOOLED. INDEED WRN NY AND WRN
PA ARE NOW SEEING PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HENCE HAVE
A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NRN PA AND C NY GRIDS. VALLEYS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN THESE AREAS. LATER TONIGHT ALL AREAS FROM THE NRN TIER
OF PA TO C NY WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SPS RUNS
UNTIL 10 PM. NEXT SHIFT CAN ACCESS WHETHER ANOTHER IS NEEDED.
AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FZDZ WILL BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO
OPTED FOR AN SPS INSTEAD OF A WINTER WX ADVY TO COVER.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN CLOUDY ACRS ALL OF NE PA AND C NY. THERE WILL
BE SOME PARTIAL CLRG IN NE PA AND SRN SULLIVAN CO WHERE
DOWNSLOPING PREVAILS. THE MOIST LAYER UNDER THE INVERSION WILL BE
A BIT SHALLOWER BUT STILL HAVE CHC FOR FLURRIES AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR MOST OF FRIDAY IN C NY/FAR
NRN PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...INVERSION IS PUSHED DOWN A LITTLE FARTHER AND
WE WIND DOWN ANY LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
THE EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER WITH
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. SATURDAY STILL WILL SEE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUD
COVER ESPECIALLY ACRS SC NY AND NE PA. CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP
MORE FOR SUNDAY AS PER MODEL GUIDC. FOR NOW HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR SATURDAY AND PC FOR SUNDAY. CERTAINLY THE WEEKEND HOLDS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING OUT OF THIS SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING
CLOUDY PATTERN IN OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...

UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON LOCATION AND STRENGTH
OF STORMS. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT DRY THEN A WEAK WAVE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY
TO TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SO A MIX OF
PRECIP TYPES. MOST LIKELY SNOW TO RAIN. DEEP SW FLOW SO WARMING
INTO 40S DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. STRONGER WAVE WITH
A BOMBING COASTAL STORM WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. WED
NGT ENOUGH COLD AIR COMES IN TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THU. A LONG WAY OFF SO THIS TIMING AND
SCENARIO COULD CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 630 PM... LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED CLOUDY WEATHER WILL SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR
EXCEPT IFR ON THE HILL-TOP AIRPORTS AT BGM AND ITH. VSBYS WILL
RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS AT TIMES IN LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AREAS OF VFR CIGS DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT THROUGH MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO TUE...MVFR IN PRECIP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MSE/TAC







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