000
FXUS61 KBGM 211115
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
715 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED,. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
620 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD POPS IN FOR THUNDER ACRS FAR NRN ZONES EARLY
THIS MRNG. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED ATTM.
320 AM UPDATE...
WMFNT LOCATED ACRS NRN ZONES AT THIS TIME. WK WV IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SPARKING OFF CONVECTION, MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY HOWEVER A
FEW PIN-PRICK STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.
WMFNT WL LV CWA IN WARM SECTOR FOR A TIME THIS AFTN WITH DWPTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH VLY
LOCALES INTO THE MID-80S. THIS WL LEAD TO INSTABILITY INCREASING
THRU THE DAY, THO HOW MUCH RMNS TO BE SEEN. 00Z NAM INDICATES CAPES
ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG WHILE 00Z GFS SHOWING AROUND 2000
J/KG. THIS WL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO GENERATE TSTMS, HWVR
TRIGGER WL BE LACKING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN WV ROUNDS THE UPR LVL
TROF.
LATEST MODELS SHOWING WMFNT SINKING BACK THRU THE AREA WHICH WUD
LKLY PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR AFTN CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT MAY LAY OUT BNDRYS DRG THE DAY TDA.
HV KEPT CHC POPS THRU A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SCTD SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED AND AFTER 21Z AS WV GETS CLOSER, HV INCREASED POPS TO LKLY
ACRS NRN ZONES.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONG TO AN ISOLD SVR STORM THIS AFTN WITH
ANYTHING THAT IS ABLE TO FORM. EXPECTING MOSTLY PULSE TSTMS TDA WITH
MEAGER WIND FIELDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM UPDATE...
WV WL RIDE UP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT ALONG WITH S/WV TOPPING THE
RIDGE. HV CONTD LKLY POPS ACRS NRN ZONES THRU 06Z TONIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE AFT THIS TIME. CAPES RMN ELEVATED LEADING TO
THUNDER CONTG.
SHOWER AND TSTM CHCS WL CONTINUE UNTIL FROPA LATE THUR NGT. UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY DRG THE AFTN HRS AND HV BUMPED POPS TO LKLY DURING EACH
DAY. POTENTIAL CONTS TO EXIST FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY.
FROPA OCCURS BY MIDNIGHT THUR NGT. LKLY POPS ARE EXPECTED JUST ALONG
AND AHD OF THE FRONT THEN TAPER OFF TO CHC AFT 06Z FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
BUILDING LATE AS THIS TROF LIFTS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
FROST BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS AND MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SFC, POST COLD FRONT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH BEST CHC FOR THUNDER DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY THE CHC
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND NE PA. REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY
TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRES FROM CENTRAL CANADA
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OUR VCNTY BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE TAF PERIOD IN REGARDS TO
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY VFR OVERALL. OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS...THEN BACK TO
VARIABLE TONIGHT. WEAK WAVE WILL CARRY THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG LIFTING SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND HEATING OF
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SPROUTING SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPO GROUPS
ASSIGNED TO THE BEST POTENTIAL TIMES FOR EACH TAF SITE
ACCORDINGLY /EXCEPT KAVP/. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
STRONGER WAVE THIS EVENING...AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED VIA PROB30
GROUPS.
OUTLOOK...
THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRI/SAT...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP
000
FXUS61 KBGM 211023
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
623 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED,. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
620 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD POPS IN FOR THUNDER ACRS FAR NRN ZONES EARLY
THIS MRNG. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED ATTM.
320 AM UPDATE...
WMFNT LOCATED ACRS NRN ZONES AT THIS TIME. WK WV IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SPARKING OFF CONVECTION, MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY HOWEVER A
FEW PIN-PRICK STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.
WMFNT WL LV CWA IN WARM SECTOR FOR A TIME THIS AFTN WITH DWPTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH VLY
LOCALES INTO THE MID-80S. THIS WL LEAD TO INSTABILITY INCREASING
THRU THE DAY, THO HOW MUCH RMNS TO BE SEEN. 00Z NAM INDICATES CAPES
ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG WHILE 00Z GFS SHOWING AROUND 2000
J/KG. THIS WL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO GENERATE TSTMS, HWVR
TRIGGER WL BE LACKING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN WV ROUNDS THE UPR LVL
TROF.
LATEST MODELS SHOWING WMFNT SINKING BACK THRU THE AREA WHICH WUD
LKLY PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR AFTN CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT MAY LAY OUT BNDRYS DRG THE DAY TDA.
HV KEPT CHC POPS THRU A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SCTD SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED AND AFTER 21Z AS WV GETS CLOSER, HV INCREASED POPS TO LKLY
ACRS NRN ZONES.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONG TO AN ISOLD SVR STORM THIS AFTN WITH
ANYTHING THAT IS ABLE TO FORM. EXPECTING MOSTLY PULSE TSTMS TDA WITH
MEAGER WIND FIELDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM UPDATE...
WV WL RIDE UP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT ALONG WITH S/WV TOPPING THE
RIDGE. HV CONTD LKLY POPS ACRS NRN ZONES THRU 06Z TONIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE AFT THIS TIME. CAPES RMN ELEVATED LEADING TO
THUNDER CONTG.
SHOWER AND TSTM CHCS WL CONTINUE UNTIL FROPA LATE THUR NGT. UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY DRG THE AFTN HRS AND HV BUMPED POPS TO LKLY DURING EACH
DAY. POTENTIAL CONTS TO EXIST FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY.
FROPA OCCURS BY MIDNIGHT THUR NGT. LKLY POPS ARE EXPECTED JUST ALONG
AND AHD OF THE FRONT THEN TAPER OFF TO CHC AFT 06Z FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
BUILDING LATE AS THIS TROF LIFTS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
FROST BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS AND MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SFC, POST COLD FRONT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH BEST CHC FOR THUNDER DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY THE CHC
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND NE PA. REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY
TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRES FROM CENTRAL CANADA
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OUR VCNTY BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE TAF PERIOD IN REGARDS TO
PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY VFR OVERALL. INITIAL LINE OF STORMS CARRYING THROUGH KSYR
JUST BEFORE TAF TIME WITH GUSTY WNW WIND SHIFT FROM EARLIER STORMS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND...EN ROUTE FOR KRME. IN WAKE OF THOSE
STORMS...FAIRLY QUIET INITIALLY TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS. WEAK WAVE WILL
CARRY THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE SPROUTING SOME THUNDERSTORMS. EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT UNCERTAIN BUT PROB30 GROUPS ASSIGNED TO THE BEST
POTENTIAL TIMES FOR EACH TAF SITE ACCORDINGLY. ADDITIONAL STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A STRONGER WAVE 02Z-06Z WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...
LATE WED NIGHT/THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRI/SAT...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP
000
FXUS61 KBGM 210726
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
326 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED,. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
320 AM UPDATE...
WMFNT LOCATED ACRS NRN ZONES AT THIS TIME. WK WV IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SPARKING OFF CONVECTION, MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY HOWEVER A
FEW PIN-PRICK STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.
WMFNT WL LV CWA IN WARM SECTOR FOR A TIME THIS AFTN WITH DWPTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AREA-WIDE WITH VLY
LOCALES INTO THE MID-80S. THIS WL LEAD TO INSTABILITY INCREASING
THRU THE DAY, THO HOW MUCH RMNS TO BE SEEN. 00Z NAM INDICATES CAPES
ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG WHILE 00Z GFS SHOWING AROUND 2000
J/KG. THIS WL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO GENERATE TSTMS, HWVR
TRIGGER WL BE LACKING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN WV ROUNDS THE UPR LVL
TROF.
LATEST MODELS SHOWING WMFNT SINKING BACK THRU THE AREA WHICH WUD
LKLY PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR AFTN CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT MAY LAY OUT BNDRYS DRG THE DAY TDA.
HV KEPT CHC POPS THRU A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SCTD SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED AND AFTER 21Z AS WV GETS CLOSER, HV INCREASED POPS TO LKLY
ACRS NRN ZONES.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONG TO AN ISOLD SVR STORM THIS AFTN WITH
ANYTHING THAT IS ABLE TO FORM. EXPECTING MOSTLY PULSE TSTMS TDA WITH
MEAGER WIND FIELDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM UPDATE...
WV WL RIDE UP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT ALONG WITH S/WV TOPPING THE
RIDGE. HV CONTD LKLY POPS ACRS NRN ZONES THRU 06Z TONIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE AFT THIS TIME. CAPES RMN ELEVATED LEADING TO
THUNDER CONTG.
SHOWER AND TSTM CHCS WL CONTINUE UNTIL FROPA LATE THUR NGT. UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY DRG THE AFTN HRS AND HV BUMPED POPS TO LKLY DURING EACH
DAY. POTENTIAL CONTS TO EXIST FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY.
FROPA OCCURS BY MIDNIGHT THUR NGT. LKLY POPS ARE EXPECTED JUST ALONG
AND AHD OF THE FRONT THEN TAPER OFF TO CHC AFT 06Z FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
BUILDING LATE AS THIS TROF LIFTS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
FROST BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS AND MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SFC, POST COLD FRONT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH BEST CHC FOR THUNDER DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY THE CHC
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND NE PA. REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY
TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRES FROM CENTRAL CANADA
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OUR VCNTY BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE TAF PERIOD IN REGARDS TO
PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY VFR OVERALL. INITIAL LINE OF STORMS CARRYING THROUGH KSYR
JUST BEFORE TAF TIME WITH GUSTY WNW WIND SHIFT FROM EARLIER STORMS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND...EN ROUTE FOR KRME. IN WAKE OF THOSE
STORMS...FAIRLY QUIET INITIALLY TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS. WEAK WAVE WILL
CARRY THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE SPROUTING SOME THUNDERSTORMS. EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT UNCERTAIN BUT PROB30 GROUPS ASSIGNED TO THE BEST
POTENTIAL TIMES FOR EACH TAF SITE ACCORDINGLY. ADDITIONAL STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A STRONGER WAVE 02Z-06Z WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...
LATE WED NIGHT/THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRI/SAT...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP
000
FXUS61 KBGM 210251
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1051 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM WEATHER PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE 80 AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD WRN NY WITH LITTLE SIGN OF
WEAKENING. MESO MODELS DO NOT AGREE WHETHER IT WILL GET HERE OR
NOT. LOCALLY STILL UNSTABLE. UPPED POPS FOR MID TO 3 AM THEN
DROPPED THEM. CONSENSUS WOULD HAVE THE LINE CONTINUING INTO WRN NY
THEN HEAD EAST ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN. LITTLE MAKING IT TO THE SRN
TIER AND NE PA. NO ADJUSTMENTS TO TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR 80 AND DEW POINTS
INTO THE 60S. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SO FAR HAVE NOT OCCURRED.
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER AND SOME DRY AIR INDICATED ON
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO BE VERY
ISOLATED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BASED ON THIS HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW 20 PCT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING... PROBABLY
REACHING WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH CENTRAL NY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT COULD
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAWN... ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN RIM OF A LARGE- SCALE
UPPER RIDGE... PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN
MANY WAYS THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE MORE
TYPICAL OF MID-SUMMER INSTEAD OF MAY. THE PRIMARY LOW- LEVEL SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL START OUT NORTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT BUT MAY SAG SOUTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... AIDED BY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PUT DOWN BY ANY CONVECTION.
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEAKENING AND PUSHING EAST OF
OUR AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THESE SHOWERS COULD HELP
TO ESTABLISH A LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NY...
WHICH MAY HELP TO TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST
AROUND THE NORTHERN RIM OF AN UPPER RIDGE. MODELS DISAGREE
SOMEWHAT ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... BUT WITH A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT THAT CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG WOULD BE REASONABLE. GFS
FORECAST VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG IN NORTHEAST PA ARE BASED ON SFC
DEW POINTS REACHING ABOVE 70 AND DO NOT APPEAR REASONABLE. HOWEVER
EVEN THE 1000 J/KG SCENARIO WOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OF A FEW
HEALTHY STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30 KTS WOULD BE
MARGINALLY LARGE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS... AND THEREFORE OUR AREA IS OUTLINED IN A SEE TEXT AREA IN
THE LATEST SPC GUIDANCE. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS ALSO A TRICKY ISSUE
FOR TOMORROW. LATEST WPC PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING POPS
NEAR 80 PCT BASED ON ENSEMBLE DATA... HOWEVER WITH WEAK WARM
SECTOR-TYPE FORCING SUSPECT THAT THE COVERAGE MAY NOT BE THAT
LARGE. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY AND LOW CHC
POPS FOR NORTHEAST PA.
BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY... WITH
CAPE VALUES GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR 25 TO 30
KTS IN NORTHEAST PA AND 35 TO 40 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL NY. QUESTION
WILL BE WHETHER A TRIGGER WILL BE AVAILABLE TO KICK OFF STORMS IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OVERALL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH WSW FLOW ALOFT AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS... THIS TIME
WITH A LITTLE MORE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL PROBABLY A FUNCTION OF FRONTAL TIMING...
WITH AN AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE MORE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE
WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
BUILDING LATE AS THIS TROF LIFTS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
FROST BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS AND MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SFC, POST COLD FRONT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH BEST CHC FOR THUNDER DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY THE CHC
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND NE PA. REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY
TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRES FROM CENTRAL CANADA
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OUR VCNTY BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE TAF PERIOD IN REGARDS TO
PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
VFR OVERALL. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO KAVP
AND KBGM FOR POSSIBLE LOW END MVFR CIG FOR A TIME EARLY
MORNING...AND PERHAPS MVFR CIG SNEAKING FOR KRME AS WELL.
ALSO...KELM MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING MVFR VALLEY FOG.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING WEST- SOUTHWEST
AT 5-10 KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT TOWARDS KSYR-KRME DUE TO INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED...WITH
SOME EVEN DEPICTING A LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA NOW /00Z/
WHICH OBVIOUSLY IS NOT OCCURRING. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE
EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON...SO PROB30 TSRA
GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED DURING THE MORE LIKELY TIMES IN MOST
TAFS ACCORDINGLY. TAFS MAY BE AMENDED AS NECESSARY SHOULD
THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO FIRE UPSTREAM LATER THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP
000
FXUS61 KBGM 202354
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
754 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED... ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR 80 AND DEW POINTS
INTO THE 60S. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SO FAR HAVE NOT OCCURRED.
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER AND SOME DRY AIR INDICATED ON
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO BE VERY
ISOLATED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BASED ON THIS HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW 20 PCT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING... PROBABLY
REACHING WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH CENTRAL NY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT COULD
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAWN... ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN RIM OF A LARGE- SCALE
UPPER RIDGE... PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN
MANY WAYS THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE MORE
TYPICAL OF MID-SUMMER INSTEAD OF MAY. THE PRIMARY LOW- LEVEL SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL START OUT NORTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT BUT MAY SAG SOUTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... AIDED BY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PUT DOWN BY ANY CONVECTION.
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEAKENING AND PUSHING EAST OF
OUR AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THESE SHOWERS COULD HELP
TO ESTABLISH A LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NY...
WHICH MAY HELP TO TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST
AROUND THE NORTHERN RIM OF AN UPPER RIDGE. MODELS DISAGREE
SOMEWHAT ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... BUT WITH A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT THAT CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG WOULD BE REASONABLE. GFS
FORECAST VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG IN NORTHEAST PA ARE BASED ON SFC
DEW POINTS REACHING ABOVE 70 AND DO NOT APPEAR REASONABLE. HOWEVER
EVEN THE 1000 J/KG SCENARIO WOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OF A FEW
HEALTHY STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30 KTS WOULD BE
MARGINALLY LARGE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS... AND THEREFORE OUR AREA IS OUTLINED IN A SEE TEXT AREA IN
THE LATEST SPC GUIDANCE. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS ALSO A TRICKY ISSUE
FOR TOMORROW. LATEST WPC PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING POPS
NEAR 80 PCT BASED ON ENSEMBLE DATA... HOWEVER WITH WEAK WARM
SECTOR-TYPE FORCING SUSPECT THAT THE COVERAGE MAY NOT BE THAT
LARGE. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY AND LOW CHC
POPS FOR NORTHEAST PA.
BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY... WITH
CAPE VALUES GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR 25 TO 30
KTS IN NORTHEAST PA AND 35 TO 40 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL NY. QUESTION
WILL BE WHETHER A TRIGGER WILL BE AVAILABLE TO KICK OFF STORMS IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OVERALL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH WSW FLOW ALOFT AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS... THIS TIME
WITH A LITTLE MORE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL PROBABLY A FUNCTION OF FRONTAL TIMING...
WITH AN AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE MORE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE
WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
BUILDING LATE AS THIS TROF LIFTS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
FROST BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS AND MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SFC, POST COLD FRONT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH BEST CHC FOR THUNDER DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY THE CHC
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND NE PA. REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY
TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRES FROM CENTRAL CANADA
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OUR VCNTY BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE TAF PERIOD IN REGARDS TO
PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
VFR OVERALL. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO KAVP
AND KBGM FOR POSSIBLE LOW END MVFR CIG FOR A TIME EARLY
MORNING...AND PERHAPS MVFR CIG SNEAKING FOR KRME AS WELL.
ALSO...KELM MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING MVFR VALLEY FOG.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING WEST- SOUTHWEST
AT 5-10 KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT TOWARDS KSYR-KRME DUE TO INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED...WITH
SOME EVEN DEPICTING A LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA NOW /00Z/
WHICH OBVIOUSLY IS NOT OCCURRING. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE
EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON...SO PROB30 TSRA
GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED DURING THE MORE LIKELY TIMES IN MOST
TAFS ACCORDINGLY. TAFS MAY BE AMENDED AS NECESSARY SHOULD
THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO FIRE UPSTREAM LATER THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP
000
FXUS61 KBGM 201942
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
342 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED... ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR 80 AND DEW POINTS
INTO THE 60S. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SO FAR HAVE NOT OCCURRED.
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER AND SOME DRY AIR INDICATED ON
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO BE VERY
ISOLATED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BASED ON THIS HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW 20 PCT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING... PROBABLY
REACHING WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH CENTRAL NY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT COULD
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAWN... ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN RIM OF A LARGE- SCALE
UPPER RIDGE... PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN
MANY WAYS THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE MORE
TYPICAL OF MID-SUMMER INSTEAD OF MAY. THE PRIMARY LOW- LEVEL SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL START OUT NORTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT BUT MAY SAG SOUTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... AIDED BY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PUT DOWN BY ANY CONVECTION.
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEAKENING AND PUSHING EAST OF
OUR AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THESE SHOWERS COULD HELP
TO ESTABLISH A LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NY...
WHICH MAY HELP TO TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST
AROUND THE NORTHERN RIM OF AN UPPER RIDGE. MODELS DISAGREE
SOMEWHAT ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON... BUT WITH A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT THAT CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG WOULD BE REASONABLE. GFS
FORECAST VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG IN NORTHEAST PA ARE BASED ON SFC
DEW POINTS REACHING ABOVE 70 AND DO NOT APPEAR REASONABLE. HOWEVER
EVEN THE 1000 J/KG SCENARIO WOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OF A FEW
HEALTHY STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30 KTS WOULD BE
MARGINALLY LARGE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS... AND THEREFORE OUR AREA IS OUTLINED IN A SEE TEXT AREA IN
THE LATEST SPC GUIDANCE. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS ALSO A TRICKY ISSUE
FOR TOMORROW. LATEST WPC PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING POPS
NEAR 80 PCT BASED ON ENSEMBLE DATA... HOWEVER WITH WEAK WARM
SECTOR-TYPE FORCING SUSPECT THAT THE COVERAGE MAY NOT BE THAT
LARGE. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY AND LOW CHC
POPS FOR NORTHEAST PA.
BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY... WITH
CAPE VALUES GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR 25 TO 30
KTS IN NORTHEAST PA AND 35 TO 40 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL NY. QUESTION
WILL BE WHETHER A TRIGGER WILL BE AVAILABLE TO KICK OFF STORMS IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. OVERALL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH WSW FLOW ALOFT AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS... THIS TIME
WITH A LITTLE MORE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL PROBABLY A FUNCTION OF FRONTAL TIMING...
WITH AN AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE MORE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE
WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
BUILDING LATE AS THIS TROF LIFTS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
FROST BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS AND MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SFC, POST COLD FRONT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH BEST CHC FOR THUNDER DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY THE CHC
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND NE PA. REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY
TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRES FROM CENTRAL CANADA
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OUR VCNTY BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE VFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND IN
GENERAL WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT, MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KELM DUE TO VALLEY FOG AND KAVP WITH
POSSIBLE MARINE LAYER.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION PRIMARILY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WEAK BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN NY MAY BECOME ACTIVE WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS
ATTM AS THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS AFTER 18Z BUT OVERALL A LOW
CONFIDENCE CONVECTIVE EVENT UNFOLDING TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT
5-10 KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
000
FXUS61 KBGM 201832
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
232 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR OUR AREA. A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE CLOSE TO OUR AREA. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE WARMER WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO
NEAR 80 THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BUT NO INDICATIONS OF ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INDICATE INCREASING IN INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO
800-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING LOOKS WEAK WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH. SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER CENTRAL NY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE LESS THAN 30
PERCENT. WEAK WIND FIELDS WOULD MEAN THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE OF THE PULSE VARIETY WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT LOW. WITH
CLEARING TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 70S AND MANY PLACES
WILL REACH NEAR 80 THIS AFTERNOON.
1000 AM UPDATE...MADE MINOR CHANGES TO SHOW MORE OF A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS OUR AREA NOW AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CLOSEST AREA
OF SHOWERS OVER NNY WILL SAFELY PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL NOT
SEEING ANY BIG TRIGGERS FOR SHOWERS OR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEMS GREAT. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOMETHING
CROSSING LAKE ERIE LATE IN THE DAY AND IT DOES MATCH UP NOW WITH A
DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION OVER LOWER MICHIGAN SO WE WILL WATCH
THIS CLOSELY. IN ADDITION WHILE DRY NOW...VIS SATELLITE DOES SHOW
SOME MORE LUMPY OR CONVECTIVE LOOKING CUMULUS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO SO THIS MAY TURN INTO SOMETHING IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AGAIN NOT MUCH EXPECTED BUT ENOUGH AROUND TO
WARRANT AT LEAST A MENTION THIS PM. UNLIKE YESTERDAY SUNSHINE OVER
IS ALREADY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK TO REACH THE 70S.
THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
4 AM UPDATE...
WK SFC LOW LOCATED ACRS SRN QUEBEC WL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TDA AS
UL WV PULLS EAST. AS IT DOES SO A WK SFC TROF WL APPCH NRN ZONES
THIS AFTN BFR IT WASHES OUT. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG CLOSED LOW
ALOFT WL PINWHEEL ACRS THE NRN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
LOW WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR YDA`S TORNADO OUTBREAK ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS IS ESSENTIALLY BLOCKED IN PLACE BY RIDGING TO THE EAST AND
WEST. LOW PROGGED TO BE STACKED THRU TUESDAY SWINGING A WMFNT THRU
THE AREA ON MON NGT.
FOR TDA, PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS SRN ZONES AS
MARINE LYR RMNS THRU AT LEAST 12Z. AFT THIS TIME, WINDS BCM MORE
SWRLY LEADING TO SOME IMPROVEMENT IN LOW CLDS. WHILE LOW-LVL
MOISTURE WL RMN IN PLACE THIS AFTN, VRY LITTLE FRCG WL BE AVAILABLE
FOR ANY NOTICEABLE PCPN TDA AND WITH MODELS CONTG TO INDICATE
WIDESPREAD QPF ACRS THE AREA AND GIVEN THEIR PERFORMANCES THE LAST 2
DAYS, HV LWRD POPS OVR ENTIRE CWA TO ISOLD AT BEST. IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLD RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER AND HV INCLUDED MENTION TWD
NOON UP NR BNDRY SLIPPING THRU AND OVRSPRDNG ENTIRE AREA THRU ABOUT
21Z. OF COURSE, LIMITATIONS EXIST STRICTLY FM EXTENSIVE CLD CVR
ALONG WITH WK FRCG BUT FEEL CHCS ARE NOT COMPLETELY NIL SO HV CONTD
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CHC FOR THE AFTN.
FOR TONIGHT, WMFNT LIFTS THRU WITH OVRNGT LOWS EXPECTED TO RMN ARND
60F. DWPTS WL ONLY DROP INTO THE U50S. SKIES WL RANGE FM
PRTLY-MOCLDY DRG THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH BNDRY IN VICINITY. SLGT CHC
POPS THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT HRS THEN SLOWLY INCRSNG TWD DAWN FM THE
WEST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
SW FLOW CONTS ON TUESDAY PER 00Z NAM AND ECMWF. MODELS PLACE CWA
SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR DRG THE DAY. H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN
DRG THE AFTN AS PLAINS LOW BEGINS TO EJECT TO THE EAST. THIS WL
ALLOW WK S/WV TO IMPACT AREA DRG THE DAY, LEADING TO LKLY POPS AFT
18Z. AIRMASS WL LKLY DESTABILIZE IN WM SECTOR LEADING TO CAPES ARND
1000 J/KG BASED ON TEMPS IN THE LWR 80S AND DWPTS RISING INTO THE
MID-60S.
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES THRU THE DAY ON WED AS WMFNT
RMNS TO OUR NORTH AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASES. DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF BNDRY, SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE LKLY AT TIMES DRG THE DAY
ACRS CNTRL NY CNTYS WHILE ONLY SCTD THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED, THUS HV
WORDED GRIDS AS LKLY SHOWERS AND CHANCE THUNDER.
MAV NUMBERS LOOK WAY TOO WARM FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
GFS/S LACK OF CLD CVR. THINKING IS THAT MET NUMBERS WILL BE CLOSER
TO REALITY AND VLY LOCALES MAY HIT 80F BUT HILLTOPS WL RMN IN THE
U70S.
HV CONTD LKLY POPS WED NGT AS CD FNT APPCHS WRN NY AND H5 LOW EJECTS
INTO GREAT LKS, FLINGING WVS AT TIMES THRU THE PD. HV MADE VRY FEW
CHGS TO PRVS GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
BUILDING LATE AS THIS TROF LIFTS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
FROST BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS AND MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SFC, POST COLD FRONT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH BEST CHC FOR THUNDER DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY THE CHC
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND NE PA. REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY
TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRES FROM CENTRAL CANADA
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO OUR VCNTY BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE VFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND IN
GENERAL WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT, MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KELM DUE TO VALLEY FOG AND KAVP WITH
POSSIBLE MARINE LAYER.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION PRIMARILY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WEAK BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN NY MAY BECOME ACTIVE WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS
ATTM AS THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS AFTER 18Z BUT OVERALL A LOW
CONFIDENCE CONVECTIVE EVENT UNFOLDING TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT
5-10 KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...MSE/PVN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN/PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
000
FXUS61 KBGM 201725
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
125 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR OUR AREA. A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE CLOSE TO OUR AREA. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE WARMER WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO
NEAR 80 THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BUT NO INDICATIONS OF ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INDICATE INCREASING IN INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO
800-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING LOOKS WEAK WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH. SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER CENTRAL NY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE LESS THAN 30
PERCENT. WEAK WIND FIELDS WOULD MEAN THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE OF THE PULSE VARIETY WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT LOW. WITH
CLEARING TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 70S AND MANY PLACES
WILL REACH NEAR 80 THIS AFTERNOON.
1000 AM UPDATE...MADE MINOR CHANGES TO SHOW MORE OF A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS OUR AREA NOW AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CLOSEST AREA
OF SHOWERS OVER NNY WILL SAFELY PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL NOT
SEEING ANY BIG TRIGGERS FOR SHOWERS OR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEMS GREAT. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOMETHING
CROSSING LAKE ERIE LATE IN THE DAY AND IT DOES MATCH UP NOW WITH A
DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION OVER LOWER MICHIGAN SO WE WILL WATCH
THIS CLOSELY. IN ADDITION WHILE DRY NOW...VIS SATELLITE DOES SHOW
SOME MORE LUMPY OR CONVECTIVE LOOKING CUMULUS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO SO THIS MAY TURN INTO SOMETHING IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AGAIN NOT MUCH EXPECTED BUT ENOUGH AROUND TO
WARRANT AT LEAST A MENTION THIS PM. UNLIKE YESTERDAY SUNSHINE OVER
IS ALREADY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK TO REACH THE 70S.
THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
4 AM UPDATE...
WK SFC LOW LOCATED ACRS SRN QUEBEC WL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TDA AS
UL WV PULLS EAST. AS IT DOES SO A WK SFC TROF WL APPCH NRN ZONES
THIS AFTN BFR IT WASHES OUT. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG CLOSED LOW
ALOFT WL PINWHEEL ACRS THE NRN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
LOW WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR YDA`S TORNADO OUTBREAK ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS IS ESSENTIALLY BLOCKED IN PLACE BY RIDGING TO THE EAST AND
WEST. LOW PROGGED TO BE STACKED THRU TUESDAY SWINGING A WMFNT THRU
THE AREA ON MON NGT.
FOR TDA, PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS SRN ZONES AS
MARINE LYR RMNS THRU AT LEAST 12Z. AFT THIS TIME, WINDS BCM MORE
SWRLY LEADING TO SOME IMPROVEMENT IN LOW CLDS. WHILE LOW-LVL
MOISTURE WL RMN IN PLACE THIS AFTN, VRY LITTLE FRCG WL BE AVAILABLE
FOR ANY NOTICEABLE PCPN TDA AND WITH MODELS CONTG TO INDICATE
WIDESPREAD QPF ACRS THE AREA AND GIVEN THEIR PERFORMANCES THE LAST 2
DAYS, HV LWRD POPS OVR ENTIRE CWA TO ISOLD AT BEST. IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLD RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER AND HV INCLUDED MENTION TWD
NOON UP NR BNDRY SLIPPING THRU AND OVRSPRDNG ENTIRE AREA THRU ABOUT
21Z. OF COURSE, LIMITATIONS EXIST STRICTLY FM EXTENSIVE CLD CVR
ALONG WITH WK FRCG BUT FEEL CHCS ARE NOT COMPLETELY NIL SO HV CONTD
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CHC FOR THE AFTN.
FOR TONIGHT, WMFNT LIFTS THRU WITH OVRNGT LOWS EXPECTED TO RMN ARND
60F. DWPTS WL ONLY DROP INTO THE U50S. SKIES WL RANGE FM
PRTLY-MOCLDY DRG THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH BNDRY IN VICINITY. SLGT CHC
POPS THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT HRS THEN SLOWLY INCRSNG TWD DAWN FM THE
WEST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
SW FLOW CONTS ON TUESDAY PER 00Z NAM AND ECMWF. MODELS PLACE CWA
SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR DRG THE DAY. H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN
DRG THE AFTN AS PLAINS LOW BEGINS TO EJECT TO THE EAST. THIS WL
ALLOW WK S/WV TO IMPACT AREA DRG THE DAY, LEADING TO LKLY POPS AFT
18Z. AIRMASS WL LKLY DESTABILIZE IN WM SECTOR LEADING TO CAPES ARND
1000 J/KG BASED ON TEMPS IN THE LWR 80S AND DWPTS RISING INTO THE
MID-60S.
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES THRU THE DAY ON WED AS WMFNT
RMNS TO OUR NORTH AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASES. DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF BNDRY, SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE LKLY AT TIMES DRG THE DAY
ACRS CNTRL NY CNTYS WHILE ONLY SCTD THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED, THUS HV
WORDED GRIDS AS LKLY SHOWERS AND CHANCE THUNDER.
MAV NUMBERS LOOK WAY TOO WARM FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
GFS/S LACK OF CLD CVR. THINKING IS THAT MET NUMBERS WILL BE CLOSER
TO REALITY AND VLY LOCALES MAY HIT 80F BUT HILLTOPS WL RMN IN THE
U70S.
HV CONTD LKLY POPS WED NGT AS CD FNT APPCHS WRN NY AND H5 LOW EJECTS
INTO GREAT LKS, FLINGING WVS AT TIMES THRU THE PD. HV MADE VRY FEW
CHGS TO PRVS GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
445 AM UPDATE...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM INHERITED FCST WITH STRONG COLD FRONT
STILL EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY DECENT COOL DOWN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF NOT AS COOL AS PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN-CMC.
THAT SAID...STILL LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS NEXT WEEKEND
WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FROST CONCERNS. UPCOMING WEEKEND STILL
LOOKING DRY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA.
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION... THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST KEEPING TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON THURSDAY.
AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH FROPA ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LINGERING POST FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRES DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA. LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAINT HINTS THROUGH OVERLYING CIRRUS THAT LINGERING MARINE LAYER
IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME
THIS MORNING. IN FACT...SYR HAS ACTUALLY CLEARED OUT AND IS NOW
REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS. IN ANY EVENT...EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AND DAYTIME
HEATING COMMENCES. FOR NOW WE EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER AT
BGM FOR A FEW MORE HRS THROUGH ROUGHLY 14Z WITH IMPROVEMENTS
ANTICIPATED SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AT ELM AND ITH...IF IFR WERE TO
OCCUR THIS MORNING...IT WILL LIKELY ONLY BE BRIEF BEFORE THINGS
IMPROVE. BY LATE MORNING...ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR WITH WEAK
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 4-8 KTS PREVAILING REGION WIDE.
AS FOR SHWRS/STORMS...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA
MAY SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR DEVELOPING ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...BEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR SYR AND RME HOWEVER WEAK WIND FIELD ALOFT
AND NO HINT OF ANY APPROACHING UPPER SUPPORT LEADS TO A FAIR AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY AND THUS NO MENTION IN THE FCST AS OF NOW.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z AT AVP IN
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF RESTRICTIONS
AT REMAINING SITES REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST DUE TO
MODEL/S SUGGESTION OF DRIER AIR OVER CENTRAL NY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...MSE/PVN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN/PVN
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG
000
FXUS61 KBGM 201415
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1015 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR OUR AREA. A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE CLOSE TO OUR AREA. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE WARMER WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO
NEAR 80 THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1000 AM UPDATE...MADE MINOR CHANGES TO SHOW MORE OF A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS OUR AREA NOW AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CLOSEST AREA
OF SHOWERS OVER NNY WILL SAFELY PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL NOT
SEEING ANY BIG TRIGGERS FOR SHOWERS OR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEMS GREAT. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOMETHING
CROSSING LAKE ERIE LATE IN THE DAY AND IT DOES MATCH UP NOW WITH A
DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION OVER LOWER MICHIGAN SO WE WILL WATCH
THIS CLOSELY. IN ADDITION WHILE DRY NOW...VIS SATELLITE DOES SHOW
SOME MORE LUMPY OR CONVECTIVE LOOKING CUMULUS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO SO THIS MAY TURN INTO SOMETHING IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AGAIN NOT MUCH EXPECTED BUT ENOUGH AROUND TO
WARRANT AT LEAST A MENTION THIS PM. UNLIKE YESTERDAY SUNSHINE OVER
IS ALREADY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK TO REACH THE 70S.
THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
4 AM UPDATE...
WK SFC LOW LOCATED ACRS SRN QUEBEC WL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TDA AS
UL WV PULLS EAST. AS IT DOES SO A WK SFC TROF WL APPCH NRN ZONES
THIS AFTN BFR IT WASHES OUT. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG CLOSED LOW
ALOFT WL PINWHEEL ACRS THE NRN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
LOW WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR YDA`S TORNADO OUTBREAK ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS IS ESSENTIALLY BLOCKED IN PLACE BY RIDGING TO THE EAST AND
WEST. LOW PROGGED TO BE STACKED THRU TUESDAY SWINGING A WMFNT THRU
THE AREA ON MON NGT.
FOR TDA, PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS SRN ZONES AS
MARINE LYR RMNS THRU AT LEAST 12Z. AFT THIS TIME, WINDS BCM MORE
SWRLY LEADING TO SOME IMPROVEMENT IN LOW CLDS. WHILE LOW-LVL
MOISTURE WL RMN IN PLACE THIS AFTN, VRY LITTLE FRCG WL BE AVAILABLE
FOR ANY NOTICEABLE PCPN TDA AND WITH MODELS CONTG TO INDICATE
WIDESPREAD QPF ACRS THE AREA AND GIVEN THEIR PERFORMANCES THE LAST 2
DAYS, HV LWRD POPS OVR ENTIRE CWA TO ISOLD AT BEST. IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLD RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER AND HV INCLUDED MENTION TWD
NOON UP NR BNDRY SLIPPING THRU AND OVRSPRDNG ENTIRE AREA THRU ABOUT
21Z. OF COURSE, LIMITATIONS EXIST STRICTLY FM EXTENSIVE CLD CVR
ALONG WITH WK FRCG BUT FEEL CHCS ARE NOT COMPLETELY NIL SO HV CONTD
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CHC FOR THE AFTN.
FOR TONIGHT, WMFNT LIFTS THRU WITH OVRNGT LOWS EXPECTED TO RMN ARND
60F. DWPTS WL ONLY DROP INTO THE U50S. SKIES WL RANGE FM
PRTLY-MOCLDY DRG THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH BNDRY IN VICINITY. SLGT CHC
POPS THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT HRS THEN SLOWLY INCRSNG TWD DAWN FM THE
WEST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
SW FLOW CONTS ON TUESDAY PER 00Z NAM AND ECMWF. MODELS PLACE CWA
SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR DRG THE DAY. H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN
DRG THE AFTN AS PLAINS LOW BEGINS TO EJECT TO THE EAST. THIS WL
ALLOW WK S/WV TO IMPACT AREA DRG THE DAY, LEADING TO LKLY POPS AFT
18Z. AIRMASS WL LKLY DESTABILIZE IN WM SECTOR LEADING TO CAPES ARND
1000 J/KG BASED ON TEMPS IN THE LWR 80S AND DWPTS RISING INTO THE
MID-60S.
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES THRU THE DAY ON WED AS WMFNT
RMNS TO OUR NORTH AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASES. DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF BNDRY, SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE LKLY AT TIMES DRG THE DAY
ACRS CNTRL NY CNTYS WHILE ONLY SCTD THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED, THUS HV
WORDED GRIDS AS LKLY SHOWERS AND CHANCE THUNDER.
MAV NUMBERS LOOK WAY TOO WARM FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
GFS/S LACK OF CLD CVR. THINKING IS THAT MET NUMBERS WILL BE CLOSER
TO REALITY AND VLY LOCALES MAY HIT 80F BUT HILLTOPS WL RMN IN THE
U70S.
HV CONTD LKLY POPS WED NGT AS CD FNT APPCHS WRN NY AND H5 LOW EJECTS
INTO GREAT LKS, FLINGING WVS AT TIMES THRU THE PD. HV MADE VRY FEW
CHGS TO PRVS GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
445 AM UPDATE...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM INHERITED FCST WITH STRONG COLD FRONT
STILL EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY DECENT COOL DOWN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF NOT AS COOL AS PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN-CMC.
THAT SAID...STILL LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS NEXT WEEKEND
WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FROST CONCERNS. UPCOMING WEEKEND STILL
LOOKING DRY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA.
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION... THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST KEEPING TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON THURSDAY.
AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH FROPA ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LINGERING POST FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRES DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA. LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAINT HINTS THROUGH OVERLYING CIRRUS THAT LINGERING MARINE LAYER
IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME
THIS MORNING. IN FACT...SYR HAS ACTUALLY CLEARED OUT AND IS NOW
REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS. IN ANY EVENT...EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AND DAYTIME
HEATING COMMENCES. FOR NOW WE EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER AT
BGM FOR A FEW MORE HRS THROUGH ROUGHLY 14Z WITH IMPROVEMENTS
ANTICIPATED SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AT ELM AND ITH...IF IFR WERE TO
OCCUR THIS MORNING...IT WILL LIKELY ONLY BE BRIEF BEFORE THINGS
IMPROVE. BY LATE MORNING...ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR WITH WEAK
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 4-8 KTS PREVAILING REGION WIDE.
AS FOR SHWRS/STORMS...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA
MAY SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR DEVELOPING ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...BEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR SYR AND RME HOWEVER WEAK WIND FIELD ALOFT
AND NO HINT OF ANY APPROACHING UPPER SUPPORT LEADS TO A FAIR AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY AND THUS NO MENTION IN THE FCST AS OF NOW.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z AT AVP IN
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF RESTRICTIONS
AT REMAINING SITES REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST DUE TO
MODEL/S SUGGESTION OF DRIER AIR OVER CENTRAL NY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN/PVN
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG
000
FXUS61 KBGM 201101
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
701 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR OUR AREA. A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE CLOSE TO OUR AREA. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE WARMER WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO
NEAR 80 THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
WK SFC LOW LOCATED ACRS SRN QUEBEC WL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TDA AS
UL WV PULLS EAST. AS IT DOES SO A WK SFC TROF WL APPCH NRN ZONES
THIS AFTN BFR IT WASHES OUT. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG CLOSED LOW
ALOFT WL PINWHEEL ACRS THE NRN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
LOW WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR YDA`S TORNADO OUTBREAK ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS IS ESSENTIALLY BLOCKED IN PLACE BY RIDGING TO THE EAST AND
WEST. LOW PROGGED TO BE STACKED THRU TUESDAY SWINGING A WMFNT THRU
THE AREA ON MON NGT.
FOR TDA, PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS SRN ZONES AS
MARINE LYR RMNS THRU AT LEAST 12Z. AFT THIS TIME, WINDS BCM MORE
SWRLY LEADING TO SOME IMPROVEMENT IN LOW CLDS. WHILE LOW-LVL
MOISTURE WL RMN IN PLACE THIS AFTN, VRY LITTLE FRCG WL BE AVAILABLE
FOR ANY NOTICEABLE PCPN TDA AND WITH MODELS CONTG TO INDICATE
WIDESPREAD QPF ACRS THE AREA AND GIVEN THEIR PERFORMANCES THE LAST 2
DAYS, HV LWRD POPS OVR ENTIRE CWA TO ISOLD AT BEST. IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLD RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER AND HV INCLUDED MENTION TWD
NOON UP NR BNDRY SLIPPING THRU AND OVRSPRDNG ENTIRE AREA THRU ABOUT
21Z. OF COURSE, LIMITATIONS EXIST STRICTLY FM EXTENSIVE CLD CVR
ALONG WITH WK FRCG BUT FEEL CHCS ARE NOT COMPLETELY NIL SO HV CONTD
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CHC FOR THE AFTN.
FOR TONIGHT, WMFNT LIFTS THRU WITH OVRNGT LOWS EXPECTED TO RMN ARND
60F. DWPTS WL ONLY DROP INTO THE U50S. SKIES WL RANGE FM
PRTLY-MOCLDY DRG THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH BNDRY IN VICINITY. SLGT CHC
POPS THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT HRS THEN SLOWLY INCRSNG TWD DAWN FM THE
WEST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
SW FLOW CONTS ON TUESDAY PER 00Z NAM AND ECMWF. MODELS PLACE CWA
SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR DRG THE DAY. H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN
DRG THE AFTN AS PLAINS LOW BEGINS TO EJECT TO THE EAST. THIS WL
ALLOW WK S/WV TO IMPACT AREA DRG THE DAY, LEADING TO LKLY POPS AFT
18Z. AIRMASS WL LKLY DESTABILIZE IN WM SECTOR LEADING TO CAPES ARND
1000 J/KG BASED ON TEMPS IN THE LWR 80S AND DWPTS RISING INTO THE
MID-60S.
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES THRU THE DAY ON WED AS WMFNT
RMNS TO OUR NORTH AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASES. DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF BNDRY, SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE LKLY AT TIMES DRG THE DAY
ACRS CNTRL NY CNTYS WHILE ONLY SCTD THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED, THUS HV
WORDED GRIDS AS LKLY SHOWERS AND CHANCE THUNDER.
MAV NUMBERS LOOK WAY TOO WARM FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
GFS/S LACK OF CLD CVR. THINKING IS THAT MET NUMBERS WILL BE CLOSER
TO REALITY AND VLY LOCALES MAY HIT 80F BUT HILLTOPS WL RMN IN THE
U70S.
HV CONTD LKLY POPS WED NGT AS CD FNT APPCHS WRN NY AND H5 LOW EJECTS
INTO GREAT LKS, FLINGING WVS AT TIMES THRU THE PD. HV MADE VRY FEW
CHGS TO PRVS GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
445 AM UPDATE...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM INHERITED FCST WITH STRONG COLD FRONT
STILL EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY DECENT COOL DOWN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF NOT AS COOL AS PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN-CMC.
THAT SAID...STILL LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS NEXT WEEKEND
WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FROST CONCERNS. UPCOMING WEEKEND STILL
LOOKING DRY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA.
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION... THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST KEEPING TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON THURSDAY.
AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH FROPA ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LINGERING POST FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRES DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA. LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAINT HINTS THROUGH OVERLYING CIRRUS THAT LINGERING MARINE LAYER
IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME
THIS MORNING. IN FACT...SYR HAS ACTUALLY CLEARED OUT AND IS NOW
REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS. IN ANY EVENT...EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AND DAYTIME
HEATING COMMENCES. FOR NOW WE EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER AT
BGM FOR A FEW MORE HRS THROUGH ROUGHLY 14Z WITH IMPROVEMENTS
ANTICIPATED SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AT ELM AND ITH...IF IFR WERE TO
OCCUR THIS MORNING...IT WILL LIKELY ONLY BE BRIEF BEFORE THINGS
IMPROVE. BY LATE MORNING...ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR WITH WEAK
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 4-8 KTS PREVAILING REGION WIDE.
AS FOR SHWRS/STORMS...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA
MAY SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR DEVELOPING ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...BEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR SYR AND RME HOWEVER WEAK WIND FIELD ALOFT
AND NO HINT OF ANY APPROACHING UPPER SUPPORT LEADS TO A FAIR AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY AND THUS NO MENTION IN THE FCST AS OF NOW.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z AT AVP IN
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF RESTRICTIONS
AT REMAINING SITES REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST DUE TO
MODEL/S SUGGESTION OF DRIER AIR OVER CENTRAL NY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG
000
FXUS61 KBGM 200856
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
456 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR OUR AREA. A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE CLOSE TO OUR AREA. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE WARMER WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO
NEAR 80 THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
WK SFC LOW LOCATED ACRS SRN QUEBEC WL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TDA AS
UL WV PULLS EAST. AS IT DOES SO A WK SFC TROF WL APPCH NRN ZONES
THIS AFTN BFR IT WASHES OUT. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG CLOSED LOW
ALOFT WL PINWHEEL ACRS THE NRN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
LOW WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR YDA`S TORNADO OUTBREAK ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS IS ESSENTIALLY BLOCKED IN PLACE BY RIDGING TO THE EAST AND
WEST. LOW PROGGED TO BE STACKED THRU TUESDAY SWINGING A WMFNT THRU
THE AREA ON MON NGT.
FOR TDA, PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS SRN ZONES AS
MARINE LYR RMNS THRU AT LEAST 12Z. AFT THIS TIME, WINDS BCM MORE
SWRLY LEADING TO SOME IMPROVEMENT IN LOW CLDS. WHILE LOW-LVL
MOISTURE WL RMN IN PLACE THIS AFTN, VRY LITTLE FRCG WL BE AVAILABLE
FOR ANY NOTICEABLE PCPN TDA AND WITH MODELS CONTG TO INDICATE
WIDESPREAD QPF ACRS THE AREA AND GIVEN THEIR PERFORMANCES THE LAST 2
DAYS, HV LWRD POPS OVR ENTIRE CWA TO ISOLD AT BEST. IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLD RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER AND HV INCLUDED MENTION TWD
NOON UP NR BNDRY SLIPPING THRU AND OVRSPRDNG ENTIRE AREA THRU ABOUT
21Z. OF COURSE, LIMITATIONS EXIST STRICTLY FM EXTENSIVE CLD CVR
ALONG WITH WK FRCG BUT FEEL CHCS ARE NOT COMPLETELY NIL SO HV CONTD
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CHC FOR THE AFTN.
FOR TONIGHT, WMFNT LIFTS THRU WITH OVRNGT LOWS EXPECTED TO RMN ARND
60F. DWPTS WL ONLY DROP INTO THE U50S. SKIES WL RANGE FM
PRTLY-MOCLDY DRG THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH BNDRY IN VICINITY. SLGT CHC
POPS THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT HRS THEN SLOWLY INCRSNG TWD DAWN FM THE
WEST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
SW FLOW CONTS ON TUESDAY PER 00Z NAM AND ECMWF. MODELS PLACE CWA
SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR DRG THE DAY. H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN
DRG THE AFTN AS PLAINS LOW BEGINS TO EJECT TO THE EAST. THIS WL
ALLOW WK S/WV TO IMPACT AREA DRG THE DAY, LEADING TO LKLY POPS AFT
18Z. AIRMASS WL LKLY DESTABILIZE IN WM SECTOR LEADING TO CAPES ARND
1000 J/KG BASED ON TEMPS IN THE LWR 80S AND DWPTS RISING INTO THE
MID-60S.
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES THRU THE DAY ON WED AS WMFNT
RMNS TO OUR NORTH AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASES. DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF BNDRY, SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE LKLY AT TIMES DRG THE DAY
ACRS CNTRL NY CNTYS WHILE ONLY SCTD THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED, THUS HV
WORDED GRIDS AS LKLY SHOWERS AND CHANCE THUNDER.
MAV NUMBERS LOOK WAY TOO WARM FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
GFS/S LACK OF CLD CVR. THINKING IS THAT MET NUMBERS WILL BE CLOSER
TO REALITY AND VLY LOCALES MAY HIT 80F BUT HILLTOPS WL RMN IN THE
U70S.
HV CONTD LKLY POPS WED NGT AS CD FNT APPCHS WRN NY AND H5 LOW EJECTS
INTO GREAT LKS, FLINGING WVS AT TIMES THRU THE PD. HV MADE VRY FEW
CHGS TO PRVS GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
445 AM UPDATE...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM INHERITED FCST WITH STRONG COLD FRONT
STILL EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY DECENT COOL DOWN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF NOT AS COOL AS PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN-CMC.
THAT SAID...STILL LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS NEXT WEEKEND
WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FROST CONCERNS. UPCOMING WEEKEND STILL
LOOKING DRY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA.
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION... THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST KEEPING TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON THURSDAY.
AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH FROPA ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LINGERING POST FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRES DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA. LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ONGOING. FORTUNATELY
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN
MIXING OUT. BEFORE THIS HOWEVER...IFR CIGS BELOW ALTERNATE MINS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF SYR AND RME WHERE
LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. BEYOND THE 14/15Z TIME
FRAME...CIGS SHOULD BEGIN INCREASING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ENVELOPES
THE AREA AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES. WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WILL WEAKEN AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD WHICH SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 4-8 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR...IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE...IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG
000
FXUS61 KBGM 200805
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
405 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR OUR AREA. A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE CLOSE TO OUR AREA. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE WARMER WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO
NEAR 80 THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
WK SFC LOW LOCATED ACRS SRN QUEBEC WL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TDA AS
UL WV PULLS EAST. AS IT DOES SO A WK SFC TROF WL APPCH NRN ZONES
THIS AFTN BFR IT WASHES OUT. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG CLOSED LOW
ALOFT WL PINWHEEL ACRS THE NRN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
LOW WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR YDA`S TORNADO OUTBREAK ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS IS ESSENTIALLY BLOCKED IN PLACE BY RIDGING TO THE EAST AND
WEST. LOW PROGGED TO BE STACKED THRU TUESDAY SWINGING A WMFNT THRU
THE AREA ON MON NGT.
FOR TDA, PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS SRN ZONES AS
MARINE LYR RMNS THRU AT LEAST 12Z. AFT THIS TIME, WINDS BCM MORE
SWRLY LEADING TO SOME IMPROVEMENT IN LOW CLDS. WHILE LOW-LVL
MOISTURE WL RMN IN PLACE THIS AFTN, VRY LITTLE FRCG WL BE AVAILABLE
FOR ANY NOTICEABLE PCPN TDA AND WITH MODELS CONTG TO INDICATE
WIDESPREAD QPF ACRS THE AREA AND GIVEN THEIR PERFORMANCES THE LAST 2
DAYS, HV LWRD POPS OVR ENTIRE CWA TO ISOLD AT BEST. IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLD RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER AND HV INCLUDED MENTION TWD
NOON UP NR BNDRY SLIPPING THRU AND OVRSPRDNG ENTIRE AREA THRU ABOUT
21Z. OF COURSE, LIMITATIONS EXIST STRICTLY FM EXTENSIVE CLD CVR
ALONG WITH WK FRCG BUT FEEL CHCS ARE NOT COMPLETELY NIL SO HV CONTD
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CHC FOR THE AFTN.
FOR TONIGHT, WMFNT LIFTS THRU WITH OVRNGT LOWS EXPECTED TO RMN ARND
60F. DWPTS WL ONLY DROP INTO THE U50S. SKIES WL RANGE FM
PRTLY-MOCLDY DRG THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH BNDRY IN VICINITY. SLGT CHC
POPS THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT HRS THEN SLOWLY INCRSNG TWD DAWN FM THE
WEST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
SW FLOW CONTS ON TUESDAY PER 00Z NAM AND ECMWF. MODELS PLACE CWA
SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR DRG THE DAY. H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN
DRG THE AFTN AS PLAINS LOW BEGINS TO EJECT TO THE EAST. THIS WL
ALLOW WK S/WV TO IMPACT AREA DRG THE DAY, LEADING TO LKLY POPS AFT
18Z. AIRMASS WL LKLY DESTABILIZE IN WM SECTOR LEADING TO CAPES ARND
1000 J/KG BASED ON TEMPS IN THE LWR 80S AND DWPTS RISING INTO THE
MID-60S.
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES THRU THE DAY ON WED AS WMFNT
RMNS TO OUR NORTH AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASES. DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF BNDRY, SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE LKLY AT TIMES DRG THE DAY
ACRS CNTRL NY CNTYS WHILE ONLY SCTD THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED, THUS HV
WORDED GRIDS AS LKLY SHOWERS AND CHANCE THUNDER.
MAV NUMBERS LOOK WAY TOO WARM FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
GFS/S LACK OF CLD CVR. THINKING IS THAT MET NUMBERS WILL BE CLOSER
TO REALITY AND VLY LOCALES MAY HIT 80F BUT HILLTOPS WL RMN IN THE
U70S.
HV CONTD LKLY POPS WED NGT AS CD FNT APPCHS WRN NY AND H5 LOW EJECTS
INTO GREAT LKS, FLINGING WVS AT TIMES THRU THE PD. HV MADE VRY FEW
CHGS TO PRVS GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST KEEPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY.
AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH FROPA ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LINGERING POST FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRES DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA. LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ONGOING. FORTUNATELY
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN
MIXING OUT. BEFORE THIS HOWEVER...IFR CIGS BELOW ALTERNATE MINS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF SYR AND RME WHERE
LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. BEYOND THE 14/15Z TIME
FRAME...CIGS SHOULD BEGIN INCREASING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ENVELOPES
THE AREA AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES. WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WILL WEAKEN AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD WHICH SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 4-8 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR...IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE...IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...CMG
000
FXUS61 KBGM 200604
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
204 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR OUR AREA. A BETTER
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TUESDAY AND BEYOND
AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE CLOSE TO
OUR AREA. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE WARMER WEATHER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
2 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO HRLY T/TD VALUES. ISSUED SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR
DENSE FOG ACRS THE POCONOS THIS MRNG. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED ATTM.
930 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. VERY MINOR CHANGES ONLY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN WRN NY DID NOT MOVE MUCH AND HAVE SINCE DIED.
ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA CIGS ARE LOWERING. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP BUT WILL CAUSE FOG IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOME
DRIZZLE.
330 PM UPDATE...
LOOKING FOR A FAIRLY QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE WE ARE
SOCKED IN WITH CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AMPLE SUNSHINE
HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NY. THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE SUNSHINE
AND MORE CLOUDS IS RIGHT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 80 AT THIS HOUR AT KROC...BUT STILL CLOSER TO 60 HERE AT THE
OFFICE. THE LATEST MESO ANALYSIS FROM SPC SHOWS A FEW HUNDRED
JOULES OF CAPE OVER THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES...BUT NEAR 1000 J/KG
JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE. WITH THE LACK OF ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT
TRIGGER I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH AT ALL THIS EVENING. SMALLER SCALE
TRIGGERS MAY STILL PRODUCE SOME STORMS OVER WESTERN NY WITH
POSSIBLE TRIGGERS BEING A LAKE BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...OR
SOME SLIGHT SURFACE CONVERGENCE. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FINGER LAKES BECAUSE IF SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION FORMS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE
STORMS TOWARD THAT AREA. LATER TONIGHT I INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY
DRIZZLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NEPA. EXPECT THIS MAINLY
TO BE A HIGHER ELEVATION FEATURE BUT BASED ON SUCH MOIST LOW
LEVELS...IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT EVEN IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. WILL
NOT INDICATE ANYTHING MEASURING AS THE MODEL QPF FIELDS CONTINUE
TO BE WAY OVERDONE WITH SHOWING QPF AMOUNTS IN THESE
AREAS...LIKELY A RESULT OF TERRAIN PLAYING TOO MUCH INFLUENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
MONDAY...MUCH LIKE TODAY MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINING LOW. UNLIKE TODAY HOWEVER WE DO HAVE A
WEAK BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH THAT MAY TRY TO DROP SOUTHWARD LATE IN
THE DAY. WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN`T RULE OUT ANY STORMS
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON. WITH THAT
SAID BEST BET APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART
ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS SHOULD FALL APART MONDAY NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AS
MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. WITH THE
BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE TO OUR NORTH MONDAY...TEMPS MAY BE THE
BIGGER STORY WITH EVERYONE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE LAKE PLAIN.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FINALLY
MOVES EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR OR EVEN JUST NORTH
OF OUR AREA WILL BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE THE THREAT EACH DAY. CONTINUED WITH HIGH
CHANCE AND LOW LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE NORTH NEAR THE BOUNDARY ITSELF. TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WITH MAV GUIDANCE SHOWING MID TO UPPER
80S BUT THE MET CLOSER TO LOWER 80S. I HAVE NOTICED BOTH THE MET
AND MAV HAVE INCREASED TEMPS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AND WILL BUMP
UP TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY. RELUCTANT TO GO
TOO MUCH WARMER LIKE THE MAV WITH BOUNDARY/CLOUD/PRECIP ISSUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST KEEPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY.
AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH FROPA ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LINGERING POST FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRES DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA. LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ONGOING. FORTUNATELY
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN
MIXING OUT. BEFORE THIS HOWEVER...IFR CIGS BELOW ALTERNATE MINS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF SYR AND RME WHERE
LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. BEYOND THE 14/15Z TIME
FRAME...CIGS SHOULD BEGIN INCREASING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ENVELOPES
THE AREA AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES. WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WILL WEAKEN AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD WHICH SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 4-8 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR...IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE...IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVN/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...CMG
000
FXUS61 KBGM 200600
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
200 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR OUR AREA. A BETTER
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TUESDAY AND BEYOND
AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE CLOSE TO
OUR AREA. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE WARMER WEATHER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. VERY MINOR CHANGES ONLY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN WRN NY DID NOT MOVE MUCH AND HAVE SINCE DIED.
ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA CIGS ARE LOWERING. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP BUT WILL CAUSE FOG IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOME
DRIZZLE.
330 PM UPDATE...
LOOKING FOR A FAIRLY QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE WE ARE
SOCKED IN WITH CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AMPLE SUNSHINE
HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NY. THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE SUNSHINE
AND MORE CLOUDS IS RIGHT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 80 AT THIS HOUR AT KROC...BUT STILL CLOSER TO 60 HERE AT THE
OFFICE. THE LATEST MESO ANALYSIS FROM SPC SHOWS A FEW HUNDRED
JOULES OF CAPE OVER THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES...BUT NEAR 1000 J/KG
JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE. WITH THE LACK OF ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT
TRIGGER I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH AT ALL THIS EVENING. SMALLER SCALE
TRIGGERS MAY STILL PRODUCE SOME STORMS OVER WESTERN NY WITH
POSSIBLE TRIGGERS BEING A LAKE BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...OR
SOME SLIGHT SURFACE CONVERGENCE. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FINGER LAKES BECAUSE IF SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION FORMS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE
STORMS TOWARD THAT AREA. LATER TONIGHT I INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY
DRIZZLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NEPA. EXPECT THIS MAINLY
TO BE A HIGHER ELEVATION FEATURE BUT BASED ON SUCH MOIST LOW
LEVELS...IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT EVEN IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. WILL
NOT INDICATE ANYTHING MEASURING AS THE MODEL QPF FIELDS CONTINUE
TO BE WAY OVERDONE WITH SHOWING QPF AMOUNTS IN THESE
AREAS...LIKELY A RESULT OF TERRAIN PLAYING TOO MUCH INFLUENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
MONDAY...MUCH LIKE TODAY MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINING LOW. UNLIKE TODAY HOWEVER WE DO HAVE A
WEAK BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH THAT MAY TRY TO DROP SOUTHWARD LATE IN
THE DAY. WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN`T RULE OUT ANY STORMS
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON. WITH THAT
SAID BEST BET APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART
ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS SHOULD FALL APART MONDAY NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AS
MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. WITH THE
BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE TO OUR NORTH MONDAY...TEMPS MAY BE THE
BIGGER STORY WITH EVERYONE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE LAKE PLAIN.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FINALLY
MOVES EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR OR EVEN JUST NORTH
OF OUR AREA WILL BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE THE THREAT EACH DAY. CONTINUED WITH HIGH
CHANCE AND LOW LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE NORTH NEAR THE BOUNDARY ITSELF. TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WITH MAV GUIDANCE SHOWING MID TO UPPER
80S BUT THE MET CLOSER TO LOWER 80S. I HAVE NOTICED BOTH THE MET
AND MAV HAVE INCREASED TEMPS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AND WILL BUMP
UP TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY. RELUCTANT TO GO
TOO MUCH WARMER LIKE THE MAV WITH BOUNDARY/CLOUD/PRECIP ISSUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST KEEPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY.
AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH FROPA ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LINGERING POST FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRES DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA. LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ONGOING. FORTUNATELY
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN
MIXING OUT. BEFORE THIS HOWEVER...IFR CIGS BELOW ALTERNATE MINS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF SYR AND RME WHERE
LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. BEYOND THE 14/15Z TIME
FRAME...CIGS SHOULD BEGIN INCREASING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ENVELOPES
THE AREA AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES. WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WILL WEAKEN AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD WHICH SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 4-8 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR...IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE...IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...CMG
000
FXUS61 KBGM 200141
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
941 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR OUR AREA. A BETTER
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TUESDAY AND BEYOND
AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE CLOSE TO
OUR AREA. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE WARMER WEATHER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. VERY MINOR CHANGES ONLY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN WRN NY DID NOT MOVE MUCH AND HAVE SINCE DIED.
ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA CIGS ARE LOWERING. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP BUT WILL CAUSE FOG IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOME
DRIZZLE.
330 PM UPDATE...
LOOKING FOR A FAIRLY QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE WE ARE
SOCKED IN WITH CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AMPLE SUNSHINE
HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NY. THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE SUNSHINE
AND MORE CLOUDS IS RIGHT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 80 AT THIS HOUR AT KROC...BUT STILL CLOSER TO 60 HERE AT THE
OFFICE. THE LATEST MESO ANALYSIS FROM SPC SHOWS A FEW HUNDRED
JOULES OF CAPE OVER THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES...BUT NEAR 1000 J/KG
JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE. WITH THE LACK OF ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT
TRIGGER I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH AT ALL THIS EVENING. SMALLER SCALE
TRIGGERS MAY STILL PRODUCE SOME STORMS OVER WESTERN NY WITH
POSSIBLE TRIGGERS BEING A LAKE BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...OR
SOME SLIGHT SURFACE CONVERGENCE. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FINGER LAKES BECAUSE IF SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION FORMS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE
STORMS TOWARD THAT AREA. LATER TONIGHT I INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY
DRIZZLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NEPA. EXPECT THIS MAINLY
TO BE A HIGHER ELEVATION FEATURE BUT BASED ON SUCH MOIST LOW
LEVELS...IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT EVEN IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. WILL
NOT INDICATE ANYTHING MEASURING AS THE MODEL QPF FIELDS CONTINUE
TO BE WAY OVERDONE WITH SHOWING QPF AMOUNTS IN THESE
AREAS...LIKELY A RESULT OF TERRAIN PLAYING TOO MUCH INFLUENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
MONDAY...MUCH LIKE TODAY MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINING LOW. UNLIKE TODAY HOWEVER WE DO HAVE A
WEAK BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH THAT MAY TRY TO DROP SOUTHWARD LATE IN
THE DAY. WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN`T RULE OUT ANY STORMS
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON. WITH THAT
SAID BEST BET APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART
ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS SHOULD FALL APART MONDAY NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AS
MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. WITH THE
BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE TO OUR NORTH MONDAY...TEMPS MAY BE THE
BIGGER STORY WITH EVERYONE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE LAKE PLAIN.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FINALLY
MOVES EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR OR EVEN JUST NORTH
OF OUR AREA WILL BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE THE THREAT EACH DAY. CONTINUED WITH HIGH
CHANCE AND LOW LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE NORTH NEAR THE BOUNDARY ITSELF. TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WITH MAV GUIDANCE SHOWING MID TO UPPER
80S BUT THE MET CLOSER TO LOWER 80S. I HAVE NOTICED BOTH THE MET
AND MAV HAVE INCREASED TEMPS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AND WILL BUMP
UP TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY. RELUCTANT TO GO
TOO MUCH WARMER LIKE THE MAV WITH BOUNDARY/CLOUD/PRECIP ISSUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST KEEPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY.
AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH FROPA ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LINGERING POST FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRES DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA. LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MON UPDATE... LWR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NGT...AND
INTO THE EARLY AM HRS MON. IFR CIG BASES SHOULD ULTIMATELY DVLP
AT KBGM LTR TNT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PDS OF IFR TWDS
DAYBREAK AT KITH...KELM...AND KAVP. OTHWS...MVFR CONDS CAN BE
EXPECTED.
AFTER 14-15Z MON...CIG BASES SHOULD LIFT...ALLOWING CONDS TO
IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER.
WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER 18-21Z MON OVER
CNY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TAF IMPACTS WILL BE AT KSYR AND KRME.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FAR TIME RANGE FROM NOW...AND PERHAPS LIMITED
AREAL COVERAGE...WE`LL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF THE
TERMINALS ATTM.
GENERALLY LGT SFC WINDS (AOB 5 KT) CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR...IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE...IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM
000
FXUS61 KBGM 200004
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
804 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR OUR
AREA. A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TUESDAY
AND BEYOND AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVE CLOSE TO OUR AREA. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE WARMER WEATHER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
330 PM UPDATE...
LOOKING FOR A FAIRLY QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE WE ARE
SOCKED IN WITH CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AMPLE SUNSHINE
HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NY. THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE SUNSHINE
AND MORE CLOUDS IS RIGHT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 80 AT THIS HOUR AT KROC...BUT STILL CLOSER TO 60 HERE AT THE
OFFICE. THE LATEST MESO ANALYSIS FROM SPC SHOWS A FEW HUNDRED
JOULES OF CAPE OVER THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES...BUT NEAR 1000 J/KG
JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE. WITH THE LACK OF ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT
TRIGGER I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH AT ALL THIS EVENING. SMALLER SCALE
TRIGGERS MAY STILL PRODUCE SOME STORMS OVER WESTERN NY WITH
POSSIBLE TRIGGERS BEING A LAKE BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...OR
SOME SLIGHT SURFACE CONVERGENCE. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FINGER LAKES BECAUSE IF SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION FORMS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE
STORMS TOWARD THAT AREA. LATER TONIGHT I INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY
DRIZZLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NEPA. EXPECT THIS MAINLY
TO BE A HIGHER ELEVATION FEATURE BUT BASED ON SUCH MOIST LOW
LEVELS...IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT EVEN IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. WILL
NOT INDICATE ANYTHING MEASURING AS THE MODEL QPF FIELDS CONTINUE
TO BE WAY OVERDONE WITH SHOWING QPF AMOUNTS IN THESE
AREAS...LIKELY A RESULT OF TERRAIN PLAYING TOO MUCH INFLUENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
MONDAY...MUCH LIKE TODAY MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINING LOW. UNLIKE TODAY HOWEVER WE DO HAVE A
WEAK BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH THAT MAY TRY TO DROP SOUTHWARD LATE IN
THE DAY. WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN`T RULE OUT ANY STORMS
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON. WITH THAT
SAID BEST BET APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART
ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS SHOULD FALL APART MONDAY NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AS
MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. WITH THE
BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE TO OUR NORTH MONDAY...TEMPS MAY BE THE
BIGGER STORY WITH EVERYONE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE LAKE PLAIN.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FINALLY
MOVES EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR OR EVEN JUST NORTH
OF OUR AREA WILL BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE THE THREAT EACH DAY. CONTINUED WITH HIGH
CHANCE AND LOW LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE NORTH NEAR THE BOUNDARY ITSELF. TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WITH MAV GUIDANCE SHOWING MID TO UPPER
80S BUT THE MET CLOSER TO LOWER 80S. I HAVE NOTICED BOTH THE MET
AND MAV HAVE INCREASED TEMPS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AND WILL BUMP
UP TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY. RELUCTANT TO GO
TOO MUCH WARMER LIKE THE MAV WITH BOUNDARY/CLOUD/PRECIP ISSUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST KEEPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY.
AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH FROPA ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LINGERING POST FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRES DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA. LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MON UPDATE... LWR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NGT...AND
INTO THE EARLY AM HRS MON. IFR CIG BASES SHOULD ULTIMATELY DVLP
AT KBGM LTR TNT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PDS OF IFR TWDS
DAYBREAK AT KITH...KELM...AND KAVP. OTHWS...MVFR CONDS CAN BE
EXPECTED.
AFTER 14-15Z MON...CIG BASES SHOULD LIFT...ALLOWING CONDS TO
IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER.
WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER 18-21Z MON OVER
CNY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TAF IMPACTS WILL BE AT KSYR AND KRME.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FAR TIME RANGE FROM NOW...AND PERHAPS LIMITED
AREAL COVERAGE...WE`LL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF THE
TERMINALS ATTM.
GENERALLY LGT SFC WINDS (AOB 5 KT) CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR...IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE...IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM
000
FXUS61 KBGM 191954
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
354 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR OUR
AREA. A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TUESDAY
AND BEYOND AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVE CLOSE TO OUR AREA. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE WARMER WEATHER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
330 PM UPDATE...
LOOKING FOR A FAIRLY QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE WE ARE
SOCKED IN WITH CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AMPLE SUNSHINE
HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NY. THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE SUNSHINE
AND MORE CLOUDS IS RIGHT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 80 AT THIS HOUR AT KROC...BUT STILL CLOSER TO 60 HERE AT THE
OFFICE. THE LATEST MESO ANALYSIS FROM SPC SHOWS A FEW HUNDRED
JOULES OF CAPE OVER THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES...BUT NEAR 1000 J/KG
JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE. WITH THE LACK OF ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT
TRIGGER I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH AT ALL THIS EVENING. SMALLER SCALE
TRIGGERS MAY STILL PRODUCE SOME STORMS OVER WESTERN NY WITH
POSSIBLE TRIGGERS BEING A LAKE BREEZE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...OR
SOME SLIGHT SURFACE CONVERGENCE. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FINGER LAKES BECAUSE IF SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION FORMS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE
STORMS TOWARD THAT AREA. LATER TONIGHT I INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY
DRIZZLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NEPA. EXPECT THIS MAINLY
TO BE A HIGHER ELEVATION FEATURE BUT BASED ON SUCH MOIST LOW
LEVELS...IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT EVEN IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. WILL
NOT INDICATE ANYTHING MEASURING AS THE MODEL QPF FIELDS CONTINUE
TO BE WAY OVERDONE WITH SHOWING QPF AMOUNTS IN THESE
AREAS...LIKELY A RESULT OF TERRAIN PLAYING TOO MUCH INFLUENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
MONDAY...MUCH LIKE TODAY MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINING LOW. UNLIKE TODAY HOWEVER WE DO HAVE A
WEAK BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH THAT MAY TRY TO DROP SOUTHWARD LATE IN
THE DAY. WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN`T RULE OUT ANY STORMS
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON. WITH THAT
SAID BEST BET APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART
ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS SHOULD FALL APART MONDAY NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AS
MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. WITH THE
BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE TO OUR NORTH MONDAY...TEMPS MAY BE THE
BIGGER STORY WITH EVERYONE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE LAKE PLAIN.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FINALLY
MOVES EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR OR EVEN JUST NORTH
OF OUR AREA WILL BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE THE THREAT EACH DAY. CONTINUED WITH HIGH
CHANCE AND LOW LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE NORTH NEAR THE BOUNDARY ITSELF. TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WITH MAV GUIDANCE SHOWING MID TO UPPER
80S BUT THE MET CLOSER TO LOWER 80S. I HAVE NOTICED BOTH THE MET
AND MAV HAVE INCREASED TEMPS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AND WILL BUMP
UP TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY. RELUCTANT TO GO
TOO MUCH WARMER LIKE THE MAV WITH BOUNDARY/CLOUD/PRECIP ISSUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST KEEPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY.
AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH FROPA ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LINGERING POST FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRES DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA. LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY KEEPING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
CURRENTLY MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE
IFR/LOW MVFR CATEGORY. AT KITH/KBGM CIGS WILL DROP BELOW ALT MIN
OVERNIGHT WITH KRME/KELM/KAVP OCCASIONALLY FALLING INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. BY MID MORNING, A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
ALLOW CIGS TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR/LOW VFR CATEGORY. DURING THE
AFTERNOON SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY AS A WEAK SFC TROF
APPROACHES TH REGION.
WINDS S-SE BETWEEN AROUND 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST MONDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
000
FXUS61 KBGM 191846
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
246 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. ON
MONDAY, THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROF APPROACHES THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
125 PM UPDATE...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE
OF THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES WHERE ANY AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS
DOUBTFUL AND WE HAVE SEEN TEMPS REALLY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB AT ALL.
WITH THAT SAID IN A NARROW AREA ALONG OUR BORDER WITH KBUF WE ARE
ALREADY INTO THE 70S SO WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH 70S OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST AND 50S TO NEAR 60
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST.
OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO LOWER POPS DRAMATICALLY AREA WIDE. OUR
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST CHANCE POPS AND LIGHT QPF OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST BUT IT JUST DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE HAPPENING. ON
CLOSER INSPECTION THE MODELS ARE LIKELY OVERDOING QPF BASED ON THE
MOIST PROFILES WE ARE SEEING AND THE SOUTHEAST FLOW BEING
OVERLY ENHANCED BY TERRAIN. WITH THAT IN MIND THE TWO MAIN FOCUS
AREAS FOR PRECIP WILL BE THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST WITH OUR DEPARTING BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING. THEN
LATER TODAY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER WESTERN NY COMBINED WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FARTHER EAST WILL BE ENOUGH TO SET UP A NICE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH ALONG WITH ANY
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES. THE RUC DOES SHOW CAPES ABOVE 500 J/KG BUT
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER...KEPT IT ISOLATED AT BEST. AS
THIS DIES DOWN THIS EVENING EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA
UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT. BY THIS TIME I DO BELIEVE THE MODELS IN THAT
A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT TIME OF THE DAY
(NIGHTTIME) WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. AS USUAL THE MOST LIKELY SUSPECTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.
950 PM UPDATE... AN AREA OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM JUST
WEST OF UTICA SOUTHEAST THROUGH MADISON...OTSEGO...DELAWARE...AND
SULLIVAN COUNTIES CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD. THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN THE FOCUS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES THROUGH 1 PM
WITH THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY. BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF RAMPING POPS BACK INTO THE CHANCE RANGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS BARELY
GETTING INTO THE 60S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THICK CLOUD COVER.
WARMEST TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE NORTHWESTERN FINGER LAKES
THROUGH KSYR WHERE WE HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SOME SUNSHINE. THE
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
RADAR SHOWS ISLD SHRA WORKING THRU C NY AND FAR
NERN PA IN ASSCTN WITH A WEAK SHRT WAVE. THIS ACVTY WILL WORK THRU
EC NY AND THE POCONOS/CATSKILLS BY MID MORNING AS MORE ISLD-SCT
SHRA ACVTY WORKS EASTWARD FROM FROM SRN ONT. THERE IS ALSO A BATCH
OF LIGHT SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN NJ WHICH WILL CONT TO
SLOWLY WORK NORTHEAST TODAY AND DEVELOP BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS
PER MODEL GUIDC. NAM...GFS...EURO AND CMC ALL SHOW LIGHT PRECIP
WORKING NWRD TODAY REACHING ACRS NE PA AND INTO C NY. THE
DYNAMICAL SET UP WAS AS FOLLOWS: THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE SLOW ENUF OFF THE NE COAST THAT CONTINUAL SMALL
SHORT WAVES/JET STREAKS WILL INCREASE THE UPPER CONFLUENCE DURG
THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SFC HI OFF THE EAST COAST
AND INCREASE THE SERLY FLOW INTO ERN NY AND ERN PA. THE LL AGEO
WINDS SHOW THIS REALLY WELL WITH A SERLY AGEO WIND UP THRU NJ INTO
NE PA AND EC NY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A S-SERLY LLJ THAT WILL ADVECT
SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWRD TODAY AND SPREAD ISLD- SCT
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THE
N AND W DURG THE DAY TODAY WITH ISLD IN THE FAR NW TO CHC POPS IN
THE SERN ZONES. THE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNEST IN THE UPR FINGER
LAKES TO CENTRAL SRN TIER OF NY...HENCE MAXES WILL BE HIGHER IN
THESE AREAS VS POINTS TO THE S AND E.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACRS SERN CANADA AND PASSES NE OF
THE REGION. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE THE LOW-LEVEL FLO WILL
TURN FROM S-SERLY TO SWRLY AND DECELERATE. LIGHT SHRA SHUD WIND
DOWN FROM W-E OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SO WILL DROP POPS GRADUALLY.
FOR MONDAY...THE NAM...GFS AND CMC ALL SHOW A WEAK FRNT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED CANADIAN SHORT WAVE.
THE SHIFT IN THE LL FLO TONIGHT TO MORE SWRLY WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
LL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH MODELS FORECASTING DWPTS TO RISE TO AOA
60F ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MON. THIS WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO
THE WK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING SOUTHWARD MONDAY PM. HENCE THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG MON PM. THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AS NY AND PA WILL BE JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RDG AXIS. YSTDA/S 12Z EURO RUN NEVER DROPS THE FRNT
SOUTHWARD MONDAY AS THE SHRT WAVE TRACKING IN SERN CANADA STAYS
FARTHER N. WITH WEAK FORCING...YET DECENT CAPE AND SOME
UNCERTAINTIES WILL GO WITH GENERIC CHC/S FOR SHRA AND TSRA
FOLLOWING PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND OTHER SURROUNDING OFFICES MON INTO
MON EVE. TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE TRICKY THIS FAR OUT SO
WILL NOT BE VERY SPECIFIC YET.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY WANES TO SOME EXTENT...ESP IN THE
ERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. IN THE WEST ACRS WRN NY TO NC PA SOME CAPE
REMAINS THRU THE NIGHT. WILL DROP POPS MON NGT...WITH THE HIGHEST
LINGERING IN THE WEST AND LOWEST TO THE EAST BY TUE AM.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK UNSETTLED AS THE MAIN CYCLONE AND
ASSCTD UPR TROF MOVE EASTWARD AND ACCELERATE THE LL WINDS FROM THE
SW INTO NY AND PA. IN ADDTN...THERE WILL BE A LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL ENHANCE LARGE LIFTING TUE NGT. DWPTS WILL BE WELL INTO THE
60S AND WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND CAPE I SEE SHRA
AND TSRA BOTH TUE AND TUE NGT. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL FOR
SVR AT THIS TIME SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SVR WX THIS FAR
EAST. MODEL QPFS WERE RUNNING GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES EITHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE NORTHEAST KEEPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY.
AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH FROPA ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH THE CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LINGERING POST FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRES DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA. LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY KEEPING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
CURRENTLY MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE
IFR/LOW MVFR CATEGORY. AT KITH/KBGM CIGS WILL DROP BELOW ALT MIN
OVERNIGHT WITH KRME/KELM/KAVP OCCASIONALLY FALLING INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. BY MID MORNING, A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
ALLOW CIGS TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR/LOW VFR CATEGORY. DURING THE
AFTERNOON SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY AS A WEAK SFC TROF
APPROACHES TH REGION.
WINDS S-SE BETWEEN AROUND 5-8 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST MONDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
000
FXUS61 KBGM 191733
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
133 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. ON
MONDAY, THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROF APPROACHES THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
125 PM UPDATE...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE
OF THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES WHERE ANY AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS
DOUBTFUL AND WE HAVE SEEN TEMPS REALLY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB AT ALL.
WITH THAT SAID IN A NARROW AREA ALONG OUR BORDER WITH KBUF WE ARE
ALREADY INTO THE 70S SO WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH 70S OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST AND 50S TO NEAR 60
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST.
OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO LOWER POPS DRAMATICALLY AREA WIDE. OUR
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST CHANCE POPS AND LIGHT QPF OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST BUT IT JUST DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE HAPPENING. ON
CLOSER INSPECTION THE MODELS ARE LIKELY OVERDOING QPF BASED ON THE
MOIST PROFILES WE ARE SEEING AND THE SOUTHEAST FLOW BEING
OVERLY ENHANCED BY TERRAIN. WITH THAT IN MIND THE TWO MAIN FOCUS
AREAS FOR PRECIP WILL BE THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST WITH OUR DEPARTING BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING. THEN
LATER TODAY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER WESTERN NY COMBINED WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FARTHER EAST WILL BE ENOUGH TO SET UP A NICE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH ALONG WITH ANY
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES. THE RUC DOES SHOW CAPES ABOVE 500 J/KG BUT
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER...KEPT IT ISOLATED AT BEST. AS
THIS DIES DOWN THIS EVENING EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA
UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT. BY THIS TIME I DO BELIEVE THE MODELS IN THAT
A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT TIME OF THE DAY
(NIGHTTIME) WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. AS USUAL THE MOST LIKELY SUSPECTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.
950 PM UPDATE... AN AREA OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM JUST
WEST OF UTICA SOUTHEAST THROUGH MADISON...OTSEGO...DELAWARE...AND
SULLIVAN COUNTIES CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD. THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN THE FOCUS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES THROUGH 1 PM
WITH THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY. BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF RAMPING POPS BACK INTO THE CHANCE RANGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS BARELY
GETTING INTO THE 60S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THICK CLOUD COVER.
WARMEST TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE NORTHWESTERN FINGER LAKES
THROUGH KSYR WHERE WE HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SOME SUNSHINE. THE
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
RADAR SHOWS ISLD SHRA WORKING THRU C NY AND FAR
NERN PA IN ASSCTN WITH A WEAK SHRT WAVE. THIS ACVTY WILL WORK THRU
EC NY AND THE POCONOS/CATSKILLS BY MID MORNING AS MORE ISLD-SCT
SHRA ACVTY WORKS EASTWARD FROM FROM SRN ONT. THERE IS ALSO A BATCH
OF LIGHT SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN NJ WHICH WILL CONT TO
SLOWLY WORK NORTHEAST TODAY AND DEVELOP BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS
PER MODEL GUIDC. NAM...GFS...EURO AND CMC ALL SHOW LIGHT PRECIP
WORKING NWRD TODAY REACHING ACRS NE PA AND INTO C NY. THE
DYNAMICAL SET UP WAS AS FOLLOWS: THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE SLOW ENUF OFF THE NE COAST THAT CONTINUAL SMALL
SHORT WAVES/JET STREAKS WILL INCREASE THE UPPER CONFLUENCE DURG
THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SFC HI OFF THE EAST COAST
AND INCREASE THE SERLY FLOW INTO ERN NY AND ERN PA. THE LL AGEO
WINDS SHOW THIS REALLY WELL WITH A SERLY AGEO WIND UP THRU NJ INTO
NE PA AND EC NY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A S-SERLY LLJ THAT WILL ADVECT
SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWRD TODAY AND SPREAD ISLD- SCT
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THE
N AND W DURG THE DAY TODAY WITH ISLD IN THE FAR NW TO CHC POPS IN
THE SERN ZONES. THE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNEST IN THE UPR FINGER
LAKES TO CENTRAL SRN TIER OF NY...HENCE MAXES WILL BE HIGHER IN
THESE AREAS VS POINTS TO THE S AND E.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACRS SERN CANADA AND PASSES NE OF
THE REGION. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE THE LOW-LEVEL FLO WILL
TURN FROM S-SERLY TO SWRLY AND DECELERATE. LIGHT SHRA SHUD WIND
DOWN FROM W-E OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SO WILL DROP POPS GRADUALLY.
FOR MONDAY...THE NAM...GFS AND CMC ALL SHOW A WEAK FRNT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED CANADIAN SHORT WAVE.
THE SHIFT IN THE LL FLO TONIGHT TO MORE SWRLY WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
LL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH MODELS FORECASTING DWPTS TO RISE TO AOA
60F ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MON. THIS WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO
THE WK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING SOUTHWARD MONDAY PM. HENCE THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG MON PM. THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AS NY AND PA WILL BE JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RDG AXIS. YSTDA/S 12Z EURO RUN NEVER DROPS THE FRNT
SOUTHWARD MONDAY AS THE SHRT WAVE TRACKING IN SERN CANADA STAYS
FARTHER N. WITH WEAK FORCING...YET DECENT CAPE AND SOME
UNCERTAINTIES WILL GO WITH GENERIC CHC/S FOR SHRA AND TSRA
FOLLOWING PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND OTHER SURROUNDING OFFICES MON INTO
MON EVE. TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE TRICKY THIS FAR OUT SO
WILL NOT BE VERY SPECIFIC YET.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY WANES TO SOME EXTENT...ESP IN THE
ERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. IN THE WEST ACRS WRN NY TO NC PA SOME CAPE
REMAINS THRU THE NIGHT. WILL DROP POPS MON NGT...WITH THE HIGHEST
LINGERING IN THE WEST AND LOWEST TO THE EAST BY TUE AM.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK UNSETTLED AS THE MAIN CYCLONE AND
ASSCTD UPR TROF MOVE EASTWARD AND ACCELERATE THE LL WINDS FROM THE
SW INTO NY AND PA. IN ADDTN...THERE WILL BE A LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL ENHANCE LARGE LIFTING TUE NGT. DWPTS WILL BE WELL INTO THE
60S AND WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND CAPE I SEE SHRA
AND TSRA BOTH TUE AND TUE NGT. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL FOR
SVR AT THIS TIME SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SVR WX THIS FAR
EAST. MODEL QPFS WERE RUNNING GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES EITHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
BEGINNING OF EXTNDD FEATURES STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY STRETCHED FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST. GOM WL BE WIDE OPEN AS SRLY FLOW WL
BE PREVALENT BTWN LOW TO THE WEST AND BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST.
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL TO
CONTINUE THRU 12Z THURSDAY AS UL WV APPCHS FM THE WEST. THUS, HV
BUMPED POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE ON WED ACRS NY ZONES CLOSER TO
CONVERGENCE AXIS. FROPA PROGGED TO OCCUR FRI MRNG PER GFS AND EC.
00Z EURO HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS REGARDING UPR LVL LOW FOR
THE WEEKEND PULLING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH HIPRES
BUILDING IN AT THE SFC.
HV DROPPED TEMPS SLGTLY AFT 12Z FRIDAY DUE TO FROPA. MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND RMNS UP IN THE AIR WITH 00Z EURO INDICATING CLD TEMPS MVG
OUT OF CANADA WHILE 00Z GFS BRINGS A SFC LOW UP THE ERN SEABOARD
KEEPING COLD AIR AT BAY. 00Z GEM ALSO INDICATING A DVLPNG SFC LOW
OVR THE CAROLINAS BY 00Z SATURDAY, SIMILAR TO LATEST GFS. THUS, AM
LEANING MORE TWD WARMER GFS/GEM SOLN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HV
BLENDED LATEST WARM MAX TEMP FCST WITH COOLER WPC VALUES FOR INITIAL
FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS WORKING NORTH ACROSS NY TERMINALS THIS MORNING. HIGHER
ELEVATION SITE AT KBGM SITTING AT IFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z. OTHER
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR TODAY. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AT KRME
AND KSYR VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 15Z
AND THEN BECOME MVFR THROUGH THE END OF TAF VALID TIME. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WITH IFR EXPECTED
AFTER 00Z AT SELECT TERMINALS.
WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE S-SE BETWEEN 5-10KTS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
000
FXUS61 KBGM 191358
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
958 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. ON
MONDAY, THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROF APPROACHES THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 PM UPDATE...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM JUST WEST OF UTICA SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MADISON...OTSEGO...DELAWARE...AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES
CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES THROUGH 1 PM WITH THE REST OF THE
AREA REMAINING DRY. BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF RAMPING
POPS BACK INTO THE CHANCE RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY WIDE
RANGE OF TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS BARELY GETTING INTO THE 60S OVER
MOST OF THE AREA WITH THICK CLOUD COVER. WARMEST TEMPS WILL STILL
BE IN THE NORTHWESTERN FINGER LAKES THROUGH KSYR WHERE WE HAVE THE
BEST SHOT AT SOME SUNSHINE. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
RADAR SHOWS ISLD SHRA WORKING THRU C NY AND FAR
NERN PA IN ASSCTN WITH A WEAK SHRT WAVE. THIS ACVTY WILL WORK THRU
EC NY AND THE POCONOS/CATSKILLS BY MID MORNING AS MORE ISLD-SCT
SHRA ACVTY WORKS EASTWARD FROM FROM SRN ONT. THERE IS ALSO A BATCH
OF LIGHT SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN NJ WHICH WILL CONT TO
SLOWLY WORK NORTHEAST TODAY AND DEVELOP BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS
PER MODEL GUIDC. NAM...GFS...EURO AND CMC ALL SHOW LIGHT PRECIP
WORKING NWRD TODAY REACHING ACRS NE PA AND INTO C NY. THE
DYNAMICAL SET UP WAS AS FOLLOWS: THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE SLOW ENUF OFF THE NE COAST THAT CONTINUAL SMALL
SHORT WAVES/JET STREAKS WILL INCREASE THE UPPER CONFLUENCE DURG
THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SFC HI OFF THE EAST COAST
AND INCREASE THE SERLY FLOW INTO ERN NY AND ERN PA. THE LL AGEO
WINDS SHOW THIS REALLY WELL WITH A SERLY AGEO WIND UP THRU NJ INTO
NE PA AND EC NY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A S-SERLY LLJ THAT WILL ADVECT
SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWRD TODAY AND SPREAD ISLD- SCT
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THE
N AND W DURG THE DAY TODAY WITH ISLD IN THE FAR NW TO CHC POPS IN
THE SERN ZONES. THE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNEST IN THE UPR FINGER
LAKES TO CENTRAL SRN TIER OF NY...HENCE MAXES WILL BE HIGHER IN
THESE AREAS VS POINTS TO THE S AND E.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACRS SERN CANADA AND PASSES NE OF
THE REGION. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE THE LOW-LEVEL FLO WILL
TURN FROM S-SERLY TO SWRLY AND DECELERATE. LIGHT SHRA SHUD WIND
DOWN FROM W-E OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SO WILL DROP POPS GRADUALLY.
FOR MONDAY...THE NAM...GFS AND CMC ALL SHOW A WEAK FRNT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED CANADIAN SHORT WAVE.
THE SHIFT IN THE LL FLO TONIGHT TO MORE SWRLY WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
LL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH MODELS FORECASTING DWPTS TO RISE TO AOA
60F ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MON. THIS WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO
THE WK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING SOUTHWARD MONDAY PM. HENCE THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG MON PM. THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AS NY AND PA WILL BE JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RDG AXIS. YSTDA/S 12Z EURO RUN NEVER DROPS THE FRNT
SOUTHWARD MONDAY AS THE SHRT WAVE TRACKING IN SERN CANADA STAYS
FARTHER N. WITH WEAK FORCING...YET DECENT CAPE AND SOME
UNCERTAINTIES WILL GO WITH GENERIC CHC/S FOR SHRA AND TSRA
FOLLOWING PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND OTHER SURROUNDING OFFICES MON INTO
MON EVE. TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE TRICKY THIS FAR OUT SO
WILL NOT BE VERY SPECIFIC YET.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY WANES TO SOME EXTENT...ESP IN THE
ERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. IN THE WEST ACRS WRN NY TO NC PA SOME CAPE
REMAINS THRU THE NIGHT. WILL DROP POPS MON NGT...WITH THE HIGHEST
LINGERING IN THE WEST AND LOWEST TO THE EAST BY TUE AM.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK UNSETTLED AS THE MAIN CYCLONE AND
ASSCTD UPR TROF MOVE EASTWARD AND ACCELERATE THE LL WINDS FROM THE
SW INTO NY AND PA. IN ADDTN...THERE WILL BE A LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL ENHANCE LARGE LIFTING TUE NGT. DWPTS WILL BE WELL INTO THE
60S AND WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND CAPE I SEE SHRA
AND TSRA BOTH TUE AND TUE NGT. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL FOR
SVR AT THIS TIME SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SVR WX THIS FAR
EAST. MODEL QPFS WERE RUNNING GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES EITHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
BEGINNING OF EXTNDD FEATURES STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY STRETCHED FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST. GOM WL BE WIDE OPEN AS SRLY FLOW WL
BE PREVALENT BTWN LOW TO THE WEST AND BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST.
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL TO
CONTINUE THRU 12Z THURSDAY AS UL WV APPCHS FM THE WEST. THUS, HV
BUMPED POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE ON WED ACRS NY ZONES CLOSER TO
CONVERGENCE AXIS. FROPA PROGGED TO OCCUR FRI MRNG PER GFS AND EC.
00Z EURO HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS REGARDING UPR LVL LOW FOR
THE WEEKEND PULLING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH HIPRES
BUILDING IN AT THE SFC.
HV DROPPED TEMPS SLGTLY AFT 12Z FRIDAY DUE TO FROPA. MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND RMNS UP IN THE AIR WITH 00Z EURO INDICATING CLD TEMPS MVG
OUT OF CANADA WHILE 00Z GFS BRINGS A SFC LOW UP THE ERN SEABOARD
KEEPING COLD AIR AT BAY. 00Z GEM ALSO INDICATING A DVLPNG SFC LOW
OVR THE CAROLINAS BY 00Z SATURDAY, SIMILAR TO LATEST GFS. THUS, AM
LEANING MORE TWD WARMER GFS/GEM SOLN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HV
BLENDED LATEST WARM MAX TEMP FCST WITH COOLER WPC VALUES FOR INITIAL
FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS WORKING NORTH ACROSS NY TERMINALS THIS MORNING. HIGHER
ELEVATION SITE AT KBGM SITTING AT IFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z. OTHER
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR TODAY. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AT KRME
AND KSYR VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 15Z
AND THEN BECOME MVFR THROUGH THE END OF TAF VALID TIME. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WITH IFR EXPECTED
AFTER 00Z AT SELECT TERMINALS.
WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE S-SE BETWEEN 5-10KTS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
000
FXUS61 KBGM 191035
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
635 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. ON
MONDAY, THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROF APPROACHES THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR SHOWS ISLD SHRA WORKING THRU C NY AND FAR NERN PA IN ASSCTN
WITH A WEAK SHRT WAVE. THIS ACVTY WILL WORK THRU EC NY AND THE
POCONOS/CATSKILLS BY MID MORNING AS MORE ISLD-SCT SHRA ACVTY
WORKS EASTWARD FROM FROM SRN ONT. THERE IS ALSO A BATCH OF LIGHT
SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN NJ WHICH WILL CONT TO SLOWLY
WORK NORTHEAST TODAY AND DEVELOP BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS PER
MODEL GUIDC. NAM...GFS...EURO AND CMC ALL SHOW LIGHT PRECIP
WORKING NWRD TODAY REACHING ACRS NE PA AND INTO C NY. THE
DYNAMICAL SET UP WAS AS FOLLOWS: THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE SLOW ENUF OFF THE NE COAST THAT CONTINUAL SMALL
SHORT WAVES/JET STREAKS WILL INCREASE THE UPPER CONFLUENCE DURG
THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SFC HI OFF THE EAST COAST
AND INCREASE THE SERLY FLOW INTO ERN NY AND ERN PA. THE LL AGEO
WINDS SHOW THIS REALLY WELL WITH A SERLY AGEO WIND UP THRU NJ INTO
NE PA AND EC NY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A S-SERLY LLJ THAT WILL ADVECT
SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWRD TODAY AND SPREAD ISLD- SCT
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THE
N AND W DURG THE DAY TODAY WITH ISLD IN THE FAR NW TO CHC POPS IN
THE SERN ZONES. THE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNEST IN THE UPR FINGER
LAKES TO CENTRAL SRN TIER OF NY...HENCE MAXES WILL BE HIGHER IN
THESE AREAS VS POINTS TO THE S AND E.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACRS SERN CANADA AND PASSES NE OF
THE REGION. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE THE LOW-LEVEL FLO WILL
TURN FROM S-SERLY TO SWRLY AND DECELERATE. LIGHT SHRA SHUD WIND
DOWN FROM W-E OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SO WILL DROP POPS GRADUALLY.
FOR MONDAY...THE NAM...GFS AND CMC ALL SHOW A WEAK FRNT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED CANADIAN SHORT WAVE.
THE SHIFT IN THE LL FLO TONIGHT TO MORE SWRLY WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
LL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH MODELS FORECASTING DWPTS TO RISE TO AOA
60F ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MON. THIS WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO
THE WK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING SOUTHWARD MONDAY PM. HENCE THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG MON PM. THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AS NY AND PA WILL BE JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RDG AXIS. YSTDA/S 12Z EURO RUN NEVER DROPS THE FRNT
SOUTHWARD MONDAY AS THE SHRT WAVE TRACKING IN SERN CANADA STAYS
FARTHER N. WITH WEAK FORCING...YET DECENT CAPE AND SOME
UNCERTAINTIES WILL GO WITH GENERIC CHC/S FOR SHRA AND TSRA
FOLLOWING PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND OTHER SURROUNDING OFFICES MON INTO
MON EVE. TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE TRICKY THIS FAR OUT SO
WILL NOT BE VERY SPECIFIC YET.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY WANES TO SOME EXTENT...ESP IN THE
ERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. IN THE WEST ACRS WRN NY TO NC PA SOME CAPE
REMAINS THRU THE NIGHT. WILL DROP POPS MON NGT...WITH THE HIGHEST
LINGERING IN THE WEST AND LOWEST TO THE EAST BY TUE AM.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK UNSETTLED AS THE MAIN CYCLONE AND
ASSCTD UPR TROF MOVE EASTWARD AND ACCELERATE THE LL WINDS FROM THE
SW INTO NY AND PA. IN ADDTN...THERE WILL BE A LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL ENHANCE LARGE LIFTING TUE NGT. DWPTS WILL BE WELL INTO THE
60S AND WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND CAPE I SEE SHRA
AND TSRA BOTH TUE AND TUE NGT. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL FOR
SVR AT THIS TIME SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SVR WX THIS FAR
EAST. MODEL QPFS WERE RUNNING GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES EITHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
BEGINNING OF EXTNDD FEATURES STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY STRETCHED FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST. GOM WL BE WIDE OPEN AS SRLY FLOW WL
BE PREVALENT BTWN LOW TO THE WEST AND BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST.
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL TO
CONTINUE THRU 12Z THURSDAY AS UL WV APPCHS FM THE WEST. THUS, HV
BUMPED POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE ON WED ACRS NY ZONES CLOSER TO
CONVERGENCE AXIS. FROPA PROGGED TO OCCUR FRI MRNG PER GFS AND EC.
00Z EURO HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS REGARDING UPR LVL LOW FOR
THE WEEKEND PULLING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH HIPRES
BUILDING IN AT THE SFC.
HV DROPPED TEMPS SLGTLY AFT 12Z FRIDAY DUE TO FROPA. MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND RMNS UP IN THE AIR WITH 00Z EURO INDICATING CLD TEMPS MVG
OUT OF CANADA WHILE 00Z GFS BRINGS A SFC LOW UP THE ERN SEABOARD
KEEPING COLD AIR AT BAY. 00Z GEM ALSO INDICATING A DVLPNG SFC LOW
OVR THE CAROLINAS BY 00Z SATURDAY, SIMILAR TO LATEST GFS. THUS, AM
LEANING MORE TWD WARMER GFS/GEM SOLN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HV
BLENDED LATEST WARM MAX TEMP FCST WITH COOLER WPC VALUES FOR INITIAL
FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS WORKING NORTH ACROSS NY TERMINALS THIS MORNING. HIGHER
ELEVATION SITE AT KBGM SITTING AT IFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z. OTHER
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR TODAY. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AT KRME
AND KSYR VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 15Z
AND THEN BECOME MVFR THROUGH THE END OF TAF VALID TIME. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WITH IFR EXPECTED
AFTER 00Z AT SELECT TERMINALS.
WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE S-SE BETWEEN 5-10KTS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
000
FXUS61 KBGM 190811
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
411 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. ON
MONDAY, THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROF APPROACHES THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR SHOWS ISLD SHRA WORKING THRU C NY AND FAR NERN PA IN ASSCTN
WITH A WEAK SHRT WAVE. THIS ACVTY WILL WORK THRU EC NY AND THE
POCONOS/CATSKILLS BY MID MORNING AS MORE ISLD-SCT SHRA ACVTY
WORKS EASTWARD FROM FROM SRN ONT. THERE IS ALSO A BATCH OF LIGHT
SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN NJ WHICH WILL CONT TO SLOWLY
WORK NORTHEAST TODAY AND DEVELOP BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS PER
MODEL GUIDC. NAM...GFS...EURO AND CMC ALL SHOW LIGHT PRECIP
WORKING NWRD TODAY REACHING ACRS NE PA AND INTO C NY. THE
DYNAMICAL SET UP WAS AS FOLLOWS: THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL MOVE SLOW ENUF OFF THE NE COAST THAT CONTINUAL SMALL
SHORT WAVES/JET STREAKS WILL INCREASE THE UPPER CONFLUENCE DURG
THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SFC HI OFF THE EAST COAST
AND INCREASE THE SERLY FLOW INTO ERN NY AND ERN PA. THE LL AGEO
WINDS SHOW THIS REALLY WELL WITH A SERLY AGEO WIND UP THRU NJ INTO
NE PA AND EC NY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A S-SERLY LLJ THAT WILL ADVECT
SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWRD TODAY AND SPREAD ISLD- SCT
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THE
N AND W DURG THE DAY TODAY WITH ISLD IN THE FAR NW TO CHC POPS IN
THE SERN ZONES. THE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNEST IN THE UPR FINGER
LAKES TO CENTRAL SRN TIER OF NY...HENCE MAXES WILL BE HIGHER IN
THESE AREAS VS POINTS TO THE S AND E.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACRS SERN CANADA AND PASSES NE OF
THE REGION. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE THE LOW-LEVEL FLO WILL
TURN FROM S-SERLY TO SWRLY AND DECELERATE. LIGHT SHRA SHUD WIND
DOWN FROM W-E OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SO WILL DROP POPS GRADUALLY.
FOR MONDAY...THE NAM...GFS AND CMC ALL SHOW A WEAK FRNT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED CANADIAN SHORT WAVE.
THE SHIFT IN THE LL FLO TONIGHT TO MORE SWRLY WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
LL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH MODELS FORECASTING DWPTS TO RISE TO AOA
60F ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MON. THIS WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO
THE WK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING SOUTHWARD MONDAY PM. HENCE THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG MON PM. THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AS NY AND PA WILL BE JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RDG AXIS. YSTDA/S 12Z EURO RUN NEVER DROPS THE FRNT
SOUTHWARD MONDAY AS THE SHRT WAVE TRACKING IN SERN CANADA STAYS
FARTHER N. WITH WEAK FORCING...YET DECENT CAPE AND SOME
UNCERTAINTIES WILL GO WITH GENERIC CHC/S FOR SHRA AND TSRA
FOLLOWING PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND OTHER SURROUNDING OFFICES MON INTO
MON EVE. TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE TRICKY THIS FAR OUT SO
WILL NOT BE VERY SPECIFIC YET.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY WANES TO SOME EXTENT...ESP IN THE
ERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. IN THE WEST ACRS WRN NY TO NC PA SOME CAPE
REMAINS THRU THE NIGHT. WILL DROP POPS MON NGT...WITH THE HIGHEST
LINGERING IN THE WEST AND LOWEST TO THE EAST BY TUE AM.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK UNSETTLED AS THE MAIN CYCLONE AND
ASSCTD UPR TROF MOVE EASTWARD AND ACCELERATE THE LL WINDS FROM THE
SW INTO NY AND PA. IN ADDTN...THERE WILL BE A LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL ENHANCE LARGE LIFTING TUE NGT. DWPTS WILL BE WELL INTO THE
60S AND WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND CAPE I SEE SHRA
AND TSRA BOTH TUE AND TUE NGT. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL FOR
SVR AT THIS TIME SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SVR WX THIS FAR
EAST. MODEL QPFS WERE RUNNING GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES EITHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
BEGINNING OF EXTNDD FEATURES STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY STRETCHED FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST. GOM WL BE WIDE OPEN AS SRLY FLOW WL
BE PREVALENT BTWN LOW TO THE WEST AND BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST.
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL TO
CONTINUE THRU 12Z THURSDAY AS UL WV APPCHS FM THE WEST. THUS, HV
BUMPED POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE ON WED ACRS NY ZONES CLOSER TO
CONVERGENCE AXIS. FROPA PROGGED TO OCCUR FRI MRNG PER GFS AND EC.
00Z EURO HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS REGARDING UPR LVL LOW FOR
THE WEEKEND PULLING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH HIPRES
BUILDING IN AT THE SFC.
HV DROPPED TEMPS SLGTLY AFT 12Z FRIDAY DUE TO FROPA. MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND RMNS UP IN THE AIR WITH 00Z EURO INDICATING CLD TEMPS MVG
OUT OF CANADA WHILE 00Z GFS BRINGS A SFC LOW UP THE ERN SEABOARD
KEEPING COLD AIR AT BAY. 00Z GEM ALSO INDICATING A DVLPNG SFC LOW
OVR THE CAROLINAS BY 00Z SATURDAY, SIMILAR TO LATEST GFS. THUS, AM
LEANING MORE TWD WARMER GFS/GEM SOLN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HV
BLENDED LATEST WARM MAX TEMP FCST WITH COOLER WPC VALUES FOR INITIAL
FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW CIGS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH, LEADING TO MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR RESTRICTIONS. MVFR CIGS AT
KAVP WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NY TERMINALS BY 09Z. POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR IFR CIGS AT KAVP/KBGM AND KITH THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE
MIXING RESULTS IN CIGS RISING TO MVFR. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AT
KSYR AND KRME CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 10Z AT KRME AND THROUGH
18Z AT KSYR, WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR EXPECTED
AFTER. IFR AND LOW MVFR EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z AT
KAVP/KBGM/KELM AND KITH.
WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT FROM SE-S...INCREASING 8-12 KTS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THU...VFR FALLING TO MVFR LATE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
000
FXUS61 KBGM 190738
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
338 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. ON
MONDAY, THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROF APPROACHES THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING TWO AREAS OF LIGHT SHRA...ONE THAT WAS
TRACKING SEWRD INTO C NY IN ASSCTN WITH A SMALL RIPPLE IN THE W-NW
UPPER LEVEL FLO. IR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF COLD CLOUD TOPS
PRESSING UP AGAINST THE RETREATING UPR LVL TROF OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THIS WAS ASSCTD WITH THIS WEAK WAVE. AS THE WAVE
MOVES THRU AND GETS ABSORBED INTO THE UPR CONFLUENT ZONE OFF THE
EAST COAST...WE WILL SEE ISLD SHRA OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE
PRECIP NOT EVEN REACHING THE GRND.
THE SECOND BATCH OF LIGHT SHRA WAS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN
NJ. THIS PRECIP WILL SLOWLY WORK NORTHEAST TODAY AND DEVELOP BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST AS PER MODEL GUIDC. NAM...GFS...EURO AND CMC ALL
SHOW LIGHT PRECIP WORKING NWRD TODAY REACHING ACRS NE PA AND INTO
C NY. THE DYNAMICAL SET UP WAS AS FOLLOWS: THE ABOVE MENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SLOW ENUF OFF THE NE COAST THAT
CONTINUAL SMALL SHORT WAVES/JET STREAKS WILL INCREASE THE UPPER
CONFLUENCE DURG THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SFC HI OFF
THE EAST COAST AND INCREASE THE SERLY FLOW INTO ERN NY AND ERN PA.
THE LL AGEO WINDS SHOW THIS REALLY WELL WITH A SERLY AGEO WIND UP
THRU NJ INTO NE PA AND EC NY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A S-SERLY LLJ THAT
WILL ADVECT SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWRD TODAY AND SPREAD
ISLD-SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THUS HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO THE N AND W DURG THE DAY TODAY WITH ISLD IN THE FAR NW TO
CHC POPS IN THE SERN ZONES. THE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNEST IN THE UPR
FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL SRN TIER OF NY...HENCE MAXES WILL BE HIGHER
IN THESE AREAS VS POINTS TO THE S AND E.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACRS SERN CANADA AND PASSES NE OF
THE REGION. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE THE LOW-LEVEL FLO WILL
TURN FROM S-SERLY TO SWRLY AND DECELERATE. LIGHT SHRA SHUD WIND
DOWN FROM W-E OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SO WILL DROP POPS GRADUALLY.
FOR MONDAY...THE NAM...GFS AND CMC ALL SHOW A WEAK FRNT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED CANADIAN SHORT WAVE.
THE SHIFT IN THE LL FLO TONIGHT TO MORE SWRLY WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
LL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH MODELS FORECASTING DWPTS TO RISE TO AOA
60F ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MON. THIS WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO
THE WK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING SOUTHWARD MONDAY PM. HENCE THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG MON PM. THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AS NY AND PA WILL BE JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RDG AXIS. YSTDA/S 12Z EURO RUN NEVER DROPS THE FRNT
SOUTHWARD MONDAY AS THE SHRT WAVE TRACKING IN SERN CANADA STAYS
FARTHER N. WITH WEAK FORCING...YET DECENT CAPE AND SOME
UNCERTAINTIES WILL GO WITH GENERIC CHC/S FOR SHRA AND TSRA
FOLLOWING PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND OTHER SURROUNDING OFFICES MON INTO
MON EVE. TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE TRICKY THIS FAR OUT SO
WILL NOT BE VERY SPECIFIC YET.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY WANES TO SOME EXTENT...ESP IN THE
ERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. IN THE WEST ACRS WRN NY TO NC PA SOME CAPE
REMAINS THRU THE NIGHT. WILL DROP POPS MON NGT...WITH THE HIGHEST
LINGERING IN THE WEST AND LOWEST TO THE EAST BY TUE AM.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK UNSETTLED AS THE MAIN CYCLONE AND
ASSCTD UPR TROF MOVE EASTWARD AND ACCELERATE THE LL WINDS FROM THE
SW INTO NY AND PA. IN ADDTN...THERE WILL BE A LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL ENHANCE LARGE LIFTING TUE NGT. DWPTS WILL BE WELL INTO THE
60S AND WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND CAPE I SEE SHRA
AND TSRA BOTH TUE AND TUE NGT. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL FOR
SVR AT THIS TIME SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SVR WX THIS FAR
EAST. MODEL QPFS WERE RUNNING GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES EITHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
BEGINNING OF EXTNDD FEATURES STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY STRETCHED FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST. GOM WL BE WIDE OPEN AS SRLY FLOW WL
BE PREVALENT BTWN LOW TO THE WEST AND BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST.
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL TO
CONTINUE THRU 12Z THURSDAY AS UL WV APPCHS FM THE WEST. THUS, HV
BUMPED POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE ON WED ACRS NY ZONES CLOSER TO
CONVERGENCE AXIS. FROPA PROGGED TO OCCUR FRI MRNG PER GFS AND EC.
00Z EURO HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS REGARDING UPR LVL LOW FOR
THE WEEKEND PULLING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH HIPRES
BUILDING IN AT THE SFC.
HV DROPPED TEMPS SLGTLY AFT 12Z FRIDAY DUE TO FROPA. MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND RMNS UP IN THE AIR WITH 00Z EURO INDICATING CLD TEMPS MVG
OUT OF CANADA WHILE 00Z GFS BRINGS A SFC LOW UP THE ERN SEABOARD
KEEPING COLD AIR AT BAY. 00Z GEM ALSO INDICATING A DVLPNG SFC LOW
OVR THE CAROLINAS BY 00Z SATURDAY, SIMILAR TO LATEST GFS. THUS, AM
LEANING MORE TWD WARMER GFS/GEM SOLN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HV
BLENDED LATEST WARM MAX TEMP FCST WITH COOLER WPC VALUES FOR INITIAL
FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW CIGS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH, LEADING TO MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR RESTRICTIONS. MVFR CIGS AT
KAVP WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NY TERMINALS BY 09Z. POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR IFR CIGS AT KAVP/KBGM AND KITH THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE
MIXING RESULTS IN CIGS RISING TO MVFR. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AT
KSYR AND KRME CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 10Z AT KRME AND THROUGH
18Z AT KSYR, WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR EXPECTED
AFTER. IFR AND LOW MVFR EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z AT
KAVP/KBGM/KELM AND KITH.
WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT FROM SE-S...INCREASING 8-12 KTS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THU...VFR FALLING TO MVFR LATE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
000
FXUS61 KBGM 190721
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
321 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. ON
MONDAY, THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROF APPROACHES THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING TWO AREAS OF LIGHT SHRA...ONE THAT WAS
TRACKING SEWRD INTO C NY IN ASSCTN WITH A SMALL RIPPLE IN THE W-NW
UPPER LEVEL FLO. IR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF COLD CLOUD TOPS
PRESSING UP AGAINST THE RETREATING UPR LVL TROF OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THIS WAS ASSCTD WITH THIS WEAK WAVE. AS THE WAVE
MOVES THRU AND GETS ABSORBED INTO THE UPR CONFLUENT ZONE OFF THE
EAST COAST...WE WILL SEE ISLD SHRA OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE
PRECIP NOT EVEN REACHING THE GRND.
THE SECOND BATCH OF LIGHT SHRA WAS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN
NJ. THIS PRECIP WILL SLOWLY WORK NORTHEAST TODAY AND DEVELOP BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST AS PER MODEL GUIDC. NAM...GFS...EURO AND CMC ALL
SHOW LIGHT PRECIP WORKING NWRD TODAY REACHING ACRS NE PA AND INTO
C NY. THE DYNAMICAL SET UP WAS AS FOLLOWS: THE ABOVE MENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SLOW ENUF OFF THE NE COAST THAT
CONTINUAL SMALL SHORT WAVES/JET STREAKS WILL INCREASE THE UPPER
CONFLUENCE DURG THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SFC HI OFF
THE EAST COAST AND INCREASE THE SERLY FLOW INTO ERN NY AND ERN PA.
THE LL AGEO WINDS SHOW THIS REALLY WELL WITH A SERLY AGEO WIND UP
THRU NJ INTO NE PA AND EC NY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A S-SERLY LLJ THAT
WILL ADVECT SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWRD TODAY AND SPREAD
ISLD-SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THUS HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO THE N AND W DURG THE DAY TODAY WITH ISLD IN THE FAR NW TO
CHC POPS IN THE SERN ZONES. THE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNEST IN THE UPR
FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL SRN TIER OF NY...HENCE MAXES WILL BE HIGHER
IN THESE AREAS VS POINTS TO THE S AND E.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACRS SERN CANADA AND PASSES NE OF
THE REGION. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE THE LOW-LEVEL FLO WILL
TURN FROM S-SERLY TO SWRLY AND DECELERATE. LIGHT SHRA SHUD WIND
DOWN FROM W-E OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SO WILL DROP POPS GRADUALLY.
FOR MONDAY...THE NAM...GFS AND CMC ALL SHOW A WEAK FRNT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED CANADIAN SHORT WAVE.
THE SHIFT IN THE LL FLO TONIGHT TO MORE SWRLY WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
LL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH MODELS FORECASTING DWPTS TO RISE TO AOA
60F ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MON. THIS WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO
THE WK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING SOUTHWARD MONDAY PM. HENCE THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG MON PM. THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AS NY AND PA WILL BE JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RDG AXIS. YSTA/S 12Z EURO RUN NEVER DROPS THE FRNT
SOUTHWARD MONDAY AS THE SHRT WAVE TRACKING IN SERN CANADA STAYS
FARTHER N. WITH WEAK FORCING...YET DECENT CAPE AND SOME
UNCERTAINITIES WILL GO WITH GENERIC CHC/S FOR SHRA AND TSRA
FOLLOWING PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND OTHER SURROUNDING OFFICES MON INTO
MON EVE. TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE TRICKY THIS FAR OUT SO
WILL NOT BE VERY SPECIFIC YET.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY WANES TO SOME EXTENT...ESP IN THE
ERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. IN THE WEST ACRS WRN NY TO NC PA SOME CAPE
REMAINS THRU THE NIGHT. WILL DROP POPS MON NGT...WITH THE HIGHEST
LINGERING IN THE WEST AND LOWEST TO THE EAST BY TUE AM.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK UNSETTLED AS THE MAIN CYCLONE AND
ASSCTD UPR TROF MOVE EASTWARD AND ACCELERATE THE LL WINDS FROM THE
SW INTO NY AND PA. IN ADDTN...THERE WILL BE A LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL ENHANCE LARGE LIFTING TUE NGT. DWPTS WILL BE WELL INTO THE
60S AND WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND CAPE I SEE SHRA
AND TSRA BOTH TUE AND TUE NGT. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL FOR
SVR AT THIS TIME SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SVR WX THIS FAR
EAST. MODEL QPFS WERE RUNNING GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES EITHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED MILD AND WET PATTERN WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
UPSTATE NY TUE NGT TO THU. JUST IN THE WARM SECTOR SO WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND STRONG SFC LOW MOVES
IN THU NGT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THU AFTN AND THU
NGT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT CONTINUES FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES SE TO THE EAST COAST. MOSTLY DRY DAY. SATURDAY IN NW FLOW
WITH MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES AND SFC TROFS MOVING THROUGH. MAYBE
SHOWERS IN NY.
HAVE FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MODELS SIMILAR.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW CIGS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH, LEADING TO MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR RESTRICTIONS. MVFR CIGS AT
KAVP WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NY TERMINALS BY 09Z. POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR IFR CIGS AT KAVP/KBGM AND KITH THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE
MIXING RESULTS IN CIGS RISING TO MVFR. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AT
KSYR AND KRME CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 10Z AT KRME AND THROUGH
18Z AT KSYR, WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR EXPECTED
AFTER. IFR AND LOW MVFR EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z AT
KAVP/KBGM/KELM AND KITH.
WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT FROM SE-S...INCREASING 8-12 KTS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THU...VFR FALLING TO MVFR LATE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PVN
000
FXUS61 KBGM 190541
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
141 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. ON
MONDAY, THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROF APPROACHES THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING TWO AREAS OF LIGHT SHRA...ONE THAT WAS
TRACKING SEWRD INTO C NY IN ASSCTN WITH A SMALL RIPPLE IN THE W-NW
UPPER LEVEL FLO. IR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF COLD CLOUD TOPS
PRESSING UP AGAINST THE RETREATING UPR LVL TROF OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THIS WAS ASSCTD WITH THIS WEAK WAVE. AS THE WAVE
MOVES THRU AND GETS ABSORBED INTO THE UPR CONFLUENT ZONE OFF THE
EAST COAST...WE WILL SEE ISLD SHRA OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE
PRECIP NOT EVEN REACHING THE GRND.
THE SECOND BATCH OF LIGHT SHRA WAS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN
NJ. THIS PRECIP WILL SLOWLY WORK NORTHEAST TODAY AND DEVELOP BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST AS PER MODEL GUIDC. NAM...GFS...EURO AND CMC ALL
SHOW LIGHT PRECIP WORKING NWRD TODAY REACHING ACRS NE PA AND INTO
C NY. THE DYNAMICAL SET UP WAS AS FOLLOWS: THE ABOVE MENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SLOW ENUF OFF THE NE COAST THAT
CONTINUAL SMALL SHORT WAVES/JET STREAKS WILL INCREASE THE UPPER
CONFLUENCE DURG THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SFC HI OFF
THE EAST COAST AND INCREASE THE SERLY FLOW INTO ERN NY AND ERN PA.
THE LL AGEO WINDS SHOW THIS REALLY WELL WITH A SERLY AGEO WIND UP
THRU NJ INTO NE PA AND EC NY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A S-SERLY LLJ THAT
WILL ADVECT SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWRD TODAY AND SPREAD
ISLD-SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THUS HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO THE N AND W DURG THE DAY TODAY WITH ISLD IN THE FAR NW TO
CHC POPS IN THE SERN ZONES. THE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNEST IN THE UPR
FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL SRN TIER OF NY...HENCE MAXES WILL BE HIGHER
IN THESE AREAS VS POINTS TO THE S AND E.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...MOIST SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA. IN THE
LAKE PLAIN WILL JUST ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS DUE TO LESS
MOISTURE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND POCONOS WITH LOWER 70S IN THE LAKE PLAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA BUT
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE SE PTN OF THE FA.
MONDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK SFC TROF OVER
EASTERN CANADA APPROACHES THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE, WITH BEST INSTABILITY IN THE LAKE
PLAIN SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS BOUNDARY
STALLS OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THIS FEATURE IN
NRN PA. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER ON TUESDAY WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED MILD AND WET PATTERN WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
UPSTATE NY TUE NGT TO THU. JUST IN THE WARM SECTOR SO WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND STRONG SFC LOW MOVES
IN THU NGT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THU AFTN AND THU
NGT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT CONTINUES FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES SE TO THE EAST COAST. MOSTLY DRY DAY. SATURDAY IN NW FLOW
WITH MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES AND SFC TROFS MOVING THROUGH. MAYBE
SHOWERS IN NY.
HAVE FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MODELS SIMILAR.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW CIGS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH, LEADING TO MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR RESTRICTIONS. MVFR CIGS AT
KAVP WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NY TERMINALS BY 09Z. POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR IFR CIGS AT KAVP/KBGM AND KITH THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE
MIXING RESULTS IN CIGS RISING TO MVFR. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AT
KSYR AND KRME CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 10Z AT KRME AND THROUGH
18Z AT KSYR, WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR EXPECTED
AFTER. IFR AND LOW MVFR EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z AT
KAVP/KBGM/KELM AND KITH.
WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT FROM SE-S...INCREASING 8-12 KTS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THU...VFR FALLING TO MVFR LATE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PVN
000
FXUS61 KBGM 190126
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
926 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW THROUGH
MONDAY. ON MONDAY, THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A
WEAK SURFACE TROF APPROACHES THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
920 PM UPDATE...
LAST OF THE SPRINKLES ARE NOW JUST MOVING OUT OF
SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE LIGHT SPRINKLES
TO OUR EAST...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS IF
NOT MORE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK ITSELF THAT WE SEE ENOUGH OF A RETURN
FLOW TO SEE SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO NEPA. OF CLOSER CONCERN FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE SOME MOVING OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THESE ARE NOT WORKING WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY PRESENT IN NEPA SO IF THESE HOLD TOGETHER NOTHING MORE
THAN A SPRINKLE IS EXPECTED FROM THEM. WILL RAMP POPS UP TOWARD
LATER SUNDAY MORNING IN NEPA AS THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SHOT
AT SOMETHING MORE APPRECIABLE IN TERMS OF RAIN. THE PREVIOUS AFD
IS BELOW...
700 PM UPDATE...
RADAR RETURNS ARE MUCH WEAKER THAN JUST A FEW HOURS AGO AS DRIER
AIR HAS MOVED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MAINLY FROM NEAR THE
NY/PA BORDER SOUTH. AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN BUT AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN
NEPA. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
AT 4 PM...LOCAL RADARS SHOW WEAK RETURNS OVER NE PA WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS BEING REPORTED AT THE SURFACE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS
WORKING IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH WEAKENING MID LEVEL
OVERRUNNING, THEREFORE THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FOR
AWHILE THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT, SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FA FROM RETURN
FLOW WITH SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SFC
WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES TO MUCH
OF THE REGION ALONG WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR NE PA. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...MOIST SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA. IN THE
LAKE PLAIN WILL JUST ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS DUE TO LESS
MOISTURE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND POCONOS WITH LOWER 70S IN THE LAKE PLAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA BUT
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE SE PTN OF THE FA.
MONDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK SFC TROF OVER
EASTERN CANADA APPROACHES THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE, WITH BEST INSTABILITY IN THE LAKE
PLAIN SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS BOUNDARY
STALLS OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THIS FEATURE IN
NRN PA. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER ON TUESDAY WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED MILD AND WET PATTERN WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
UPSTATE NY TUE NGT TO THU. JUST IN THE WARM SECTOR SO WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND STRONG SFC LOW MOVES
IN THU NGT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THU AFTN AND THU
NGT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT CONTINUES FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES SE TO THE EAST COAST. MOSTLY DRY DAY. SATURDAY IN NW FLOW
WITH MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES AND SFC TROFS MOVING THROUGH. MAYBE
SHOWERS IN NY.
HAVE FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MODELS SIMILAR.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WITH VARYING LAYERS OF CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
DEEPENING S-SELY FLOW FROM THE SFC-5000 FT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM A QUASI-MARINE LAYER SPREADING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN PRESENT
CONDITIONS...THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS MARGINAL, BUT
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS AND MOS GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT
MVFR-IFR AND FUEL RESTRICTION CIGS WILL COME INTO PLAY LATER
TONIGHT. THE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOT TOO MANY MILES TO
OUR SOUTH WITH PLENTY OF UPGLIDE COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING TO PROMOTE SATURATION. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED THE
FORECAST TRENDS FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH THE 00Z
UPDATE. THE KRME-KSYR AREAS MAY FAIR THE BEST BY REMAINING IN
MAINLY A VFR-MVFR CATEGORY.
WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT FROM SE-S...INCREASING 8-12 KTS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR INTO MON MRNG MAINLY SRN TIER
AND NE PA.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THU...VFR FALLING TO MVFR LATE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...JAB
000
FXUS61 KBGM 190056
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
856 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW THROUGH
MONDAY. ON MONDAY, THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A
WEAK SURFACE TROF APPROACHES THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
700 PM UPDATE...
RADAR RETURNS ARE MUCH WEAKER THAN JUST A FEW HOURS AGO AS DRIER
AIR HAS MOVED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MAINLY FROM NEAR THE
NY/PA BORDER SOUTH. AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN BUT AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN
NEPA. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
AT 4 PM...LOCAL RADARS SHOW WEAK RETURNS OVER NE PA WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS BEING REPORTED AT THE SURFACE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS
WORKING IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH WEAKENING MID LEVEL
OVERRUNNING, THEREFORE THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FOR
AWHILE THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT, SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FA FROM RETURN
FLOW WITH SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SFC
WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES TO MUCH
OF THE REGION ALONG WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR NE PA. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...MOIST SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA. IN THE
LAKE PLAIN WILL JUST ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS DUE TO LESS
MOISTURE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND POCONOS WITH LOWER 70S IN THE LAKE PLAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA BUT
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE SE PTN OF THE FA.
MONDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK SFC TROF OVER
EASTERN CANADA APPROACHES THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE, WITH BEST INSTABILITY IN THE LAKE
PLAIN SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS BOUNDARY
STALLS OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THIS FEATURE IN
NRN PA. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER ON TUESDAY WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED MILD AND WET PATTERN WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
UPSTATE NY TUE NGT TO THU. JUST IN THE WARM SECTOR SO WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND STRONG SFC LOW MOVES
IN THU NGT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THU AFTN AND THU
NGT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT CONTINUES FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES SE TO THE EAST COAST. MOSTLY DRY DAY. SATURDAY IN NW FLOW
WITH MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES AND SFC TROFS MOVING THROUGH. MAYBE
SHOWERS IN NY.
HAVE FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MODELS SIMILAR.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WITH VARYING LAYERS OF CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
DEEPENING S-SELY FLOW FROM THE SFC-5000 FT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM A QUASI-MARINE LAYER SPREADING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN PRESENT
CONDITIONS...THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS MARGINAL, BUT
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS AND MOS GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT
MVFR-IFR AND FUEL RESTRICTION CIGS WILL COME INTO PLAY LATER
TONIGHT. THE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOT TOO MANY MILES TO
OUR SOUTH WITH PLENTY OF UPGLIDE COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING TO PROMOTE SATURATION. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED THE
FORECAST TRENDS FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH THE 00Z
UPDATE. THE KRME-KSYR AREAS MAY FAIR THE BEST BY REMAINING IN
MAINLY A VFR-MVFR CATEGORY.
WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT FROM SE-S...INCREASING 8-12 KTS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR INTO MON MRNG MAINLY SRN TIER
AND NE PA.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THU...VFR FALLING TO MVFR LATE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...JAB
000
FXUS61 KBGM 182310
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
710 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW THROUGH
MONDAY. ON MONDAY, THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A
WEAK SURFACE TROF APPROACHES THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
700 PM UPDATE...
RADAR RETURNS ARE MUCH WEAKER THAN JUST A FEW HOURS AGO AS DRIER
AIR HAS MOVED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MAINLY FROM NEAR THE
NY/PA BORDER SOUTH. AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN BUT AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN
NEPA. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
AT 4 PM...LOCAL RADARS SHOW WEAK RETURNS OVER NE PA WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS BEING REPORTED AT THE SURFACE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS
WORKING IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH WEAKENING MID LEVEL
OVERRUNNING, THEREFORE THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FOR
AWHILE THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT, SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FA FROM RETURN
FLOW WITH SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SFC
WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES TO MUCH
OF THE REGION ALONG WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR NE PA. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...MOIST SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA. IN THE
LAKE PLAIN WILL JUST ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS DUE TO LESS
MOISTURE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND POCONOS WITH LOWER 70S IN THE LAKE PLAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA BUT
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE SE PTN OF THE FA.
MONDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK SFC TROF OVER
EASTERN CANADA APPROACHES THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE, WITH BEST INSTABILITY IN THE LAKE
PLAIN SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS BOUNDARY
STALLS OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THIS FEATURE IN
NRN PA. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER ON TUESDAY WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED MILD AND WET PATTERN WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
UPSTATE NY TUE NGT TO THU. JUST IN THE WARM SECTOR SO WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND STRONG SFC LOW MOVES
IN THU NGT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THU AFTN AND THU
NGT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT CONTINUES FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES SE TO THE EAST COAST. MOSTLY DRY DAY. SATURDAY IN NW FLOW
WITH MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES AND SFC TROFS MOVING THROUGH. MAYBE
SHOWERS IN NY.
HAVE FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MODELS SIMILAR.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO EVE. LOW LEVEL SE FLOW BRINGING IN ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ALL BUT SYR AND
RME 3 TO 6Z. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH 1500 FT CIGS 6 TO 9Z AT
THESE SITES. CIGS FALL FURTHER TO IFR 10 TO 14Z AT AVP AND BGM.
RME AND SYR FALL TO MVFR AROUND 10Z. CIGS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR
THROUGH 18Z.
SE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR INTO MON MRNG MAINLY SRN TIER
AND NE PA.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THU...VFR FALLING TO MVFR LATE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC
000
FXUS61 KBGM 182008
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
408 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW THROUGH
MONDAY. ON MONDAY, THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A
WEAK SURFACE TROF APPROACHES THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AT 4 PM...LOCAL RADARS SHOW WEAK RETURNS OVER NE PA WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS BEING REPORTED AT THE SURFACE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS
WORKING IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH WEAKENING MID LEVEL OVERRUNNING,
THEREFORE THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT, SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FA FROM RETURN
FLOW WITH SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SFC
WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES TO MUCH
OF THE REGION ALONG WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR NE PA. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...MOIST SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA. IN THE
LAKE PLAIN WILL JUST ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS DUE TO LESS
MOISTURE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND POCONOS WITH LOWER 70S IN THE LAKE PLAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA BUT
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE SE PTN OF THE FA.
MONDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK SFC TROF OVER
EASTERN CANADA APPROACHES THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE, WITH BEST INSTABILITY IN THE LAKE
PLAIN SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS BOUNDARY
STALLS OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THIS FEATURE IN
NRN PA. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER ON TUESDAY WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED MILD AND WET PATTERN WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
UPSTATE NY TUE NGT TO THU. JUST IN THE WARM SECTOR SO WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND STRONG SFC LOW MOVES
IN THU NGT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THU AFTN AND THU
NGT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT CONTINUES FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES SE TO THE EAST COAST. MOSTLY DRY DAY. SATURDAY IN NW FLOW
WITH MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES AND SFC TROFS MOVING THROUGH. MAYBE
SHOWERS IN NY.
HAVE FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MODELS SIMILAR.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO EVE. LOW LEVEL SE FLOW BRINGING IN ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ALL BUT SYR AND
RME 3 TO 6Z. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH 1500 FT CIGS 6 TO 9Z AT
THESE SITES. CIGS FALL FURTHER TO IFR 10 TO 14Z AT AVP AND BGM.
RME AND SYR FALL TO MVFR AROUND 10Z. CIGS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR
THROUGH 18Z.
SE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR INTO MON MRNG MAINLY SRN TIER
AND NE PA.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THU...VFR FALLING TO MVFR LATE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC
000
FXUS61 KBGM 181810
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
210 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S BUT
WILL ALSO ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...MID LEVEL WARM FRONT ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS HAS PRODUCE
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL RADARS EVEN SHOW
WEAK RETURNS STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER OF NY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST PA, ALTHOUGH RAIN IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND DUE
TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP GRIDS AS MID DECK IS PREVENTING TEMPS
FROM WARMING AS FAST AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. UPDATED MAXES TO
REFLECT THIS BKN MID DECK OVER THE TWIN TIERS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AND DROPPED MAX TEMPS AROUND 5 DEGREES. FARTHER NORTH
WHERE CLOUDS ARE THINNER MAXES LOOK REASONABLE. IN VCNTY OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA BUT WEAK FORCING AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL
LIMIT ANY RAINFALL TO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
3 AM UPDATE...
NW FLOW WL CONTINUE TO FLING CIRRUS AT CWA TDA. THIS WL RESULT IN
MOCLDY CONDS ACRS SRN AND WRN ZONES TDA THO SOME SUNSHINE MAY FILTER
THRU. FURTHER NORTH INTO CNTRL NY SKIES WL BE PRTLY SUNNY WITH
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCRSG TO ALLOW FOR CU DVLPMNT THIS AFTN. ACRS
NRN ZONES EXPECT MOSUNNY CONDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
H8 TEMPS INCRS TO ARND +8C WITH GOOD MIXING UP TO AND POSSIBLY ABV
THIS LVL WL YIELD AFTN MAXES IN THE LWR 70S.
AS FOR POPS THIS AFTN, 00Z GFS CONTS TO SHOW SOME SHOWER DVLPMNT
ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER BY 00Z THIS EVNG. 12Z EURO/00Z NAM DOES NOT
INDICATE THIS, HWVR SOME HIRES MODELS DO DEPICT SHOWERS DVLPNG. THIS
LKLY IN ASSOC WITH BNDRY ALOFT MVG NORTH THRU THE AREA COUPLED WITH
H9 WINDS ARND 15KTS ALONG WITH THETA-E RIDGE. PW VALUES IN RESPONSE
TO LLM INCRSG RISE FM 0.5 INCHES TO 0.8 INCHES ACRS FAR SRN CNTYS.
THUS WL SEE A VRY SLGT RISE IN POPS AFT 21Z ACRS NEPA WITH JUST AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION FOR LATE THIS AFTN. MAY ALSO SEE A SHOWER OR
TWO DVLP OROGRAPHICALLY ACRS WRN CATS TDA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
BNDRY LIFTS THRU TONIGHT LEADING TO STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABV THE SFC
AFT 06Z ARND 25KTS. THIS WL LEAD TO AN INCRS IN LOW-LVL MOISTURE
ACRS SRN AND WRN ZONES AFT MIDNIGHT WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND
MARINE LYR APPCHG. MOCLDY SKIES WL OVRSPRD ENTIRE CWA TWD 12Z WITH
LOWEST CIGS LOCATED OVR POCONOS AND WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. HV KEPT
IN ISOLD SHOWER MENTION THRU 12Z SUNDAY, THO IT IS POSSIBLE PCPN MAY
BE IN THE FORM OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. WITH MOCLDY SKIES AND SRLY FLOW
OVRNGT LOWS TONIGHT WL BE IN THE 50S MOST LOCALES.
SUNDAY WL FEATURE MUCH OF THE SAME AS TNGT WITH STRONG LL MOISTURE
RIDING NORTH INTO THE AREA, ALONG WITH MOCLDY SKIES. TEMPS WL WARM
AGAIN INTO THE 70S WITH CHC FOR SHOWERS CONTG OFF AND ON THRU THE
DAY. PW VALUES INCRS TO ARND 1 INCH WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FRCG EXPECTED AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST.
UL RIDGE APPEARS TO HOLD TUFF FOR SUN NGT, HWVR 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z
EC INDICATE UL WEAKNESS DVLPNG IN THE OH/TN VLYS. GIVEN INCRSG SFC
DWPTS AND CONTD SERLY FLOW INTO CWA, ALONG WITH WEAKNESS
UNDERCUTTING H5 RIDGE WL CONT MENTION FOR CHC SHOWERS SUNDAY NGT
WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXPECTED. SOME MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS OF LL FLOW BCMG MORE SWRLY WITH TIME AFT 06Z
MONDAY WITH MAJORITY OF POPS CONFINED TO SRN ZONES AFTER THIS TIME.
INSTABILITY INCREASES FOR MONDAY WITH CAPES APPCHG 500 J/KG ON
LATEST NAM/GFS SOLNS THUS HV MAINTAINED CHCS FOR THUNDER ON MONDAY
AND THRU THE OVRNGT PD. DWPTS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S BY 12Z
TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONT THRU THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM AND BYND.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED MILD AND WET PATTERN WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
UPSTATE NY TUE NGT TO THU. JUST IN THE WARM SECTOR SO WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND STRONG SFC LOW MOVES
IN THU NGT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THU AFTN AND THU
NGT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT CONTINUES FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES SE TO THE EAST COAST. MOSTLY DRY DAY. SATURDAY IN NW FLOW
WITH MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES AND SFC TROFS MOVING THROUGH. MAYBE
SHOWERS IN NY.
HAVE FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MODELS SIMILAR.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO EVE. LOW LEVEL SE FLOW BRINGING IN ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ALL BUT SYR AND
RME 3 TO 6Z. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH 1500 FT CIGS 6 TO 9Z AT
THESE SITES. CIGS FALL FURTHER TO IFR 10 TO 14Z AT AVP AND BGM.
RME AND SYR FALL TO MVFR AROUND 10Z. CIGS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR
THROUGH 18Z.
SE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR INTO MON MRNG MAINLY SRN TIER
AND NE PA.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THU...VFR FALLING TO MVFR LATE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC
000
FXUS61 KBGM 181439
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1039 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S BUT
WILL ALSO ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...MID LEVEL WARM FRONT ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS HAS PRODUCE
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL RADARS EVEN SHOW
WEAK RETURNS STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER OF NY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST PA, ALTHOUGH RAIN IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND DUE
TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP GRIDS AS MID DECK IS PREVENTING TEMPS
FROM WARMING AS FAST AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. UPDATED MAXES TO
REFLECT THIS BKN MID DECK OVER THE TWIN TIERS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AND DROPPED MAX TEMPS AROUND 5 DEGREES. FARTHER NORTH
WHERE CLOUDS ARE THINNER MAXES LOOK REASONABLE. IN VCNTY OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA BUT WEAK FORCING AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL
LIMIT ANY RAINFALL TO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
3 AM UPDATE...
NW FLOW WL CONTINUE TO FLING CIRRUS AT CWA TDA. THIS WL RESULT IN
MOCLDY CONDS ACRS SRN AND WRN ZONES TDA THO SOME SUNSHINE MAY FILTER
THRU. FURTHER NORTH INTO CNTRL NY SKIES WL BE PRTLY SUNNY WITH
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCRSG TO ALLOW FOR CU DVLPMNT THIS AFTN. ACRS
NRN ZONES EXPECT MOSUNNY CONDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
H8 TEMPS INCRS TO ARND +8C WITH GOOD MIXING UP TO AND POSSIBLY ABV
THIS LVL WL YIELD AFTN MAXES IN THE LWR 70S.
AS FOR POPS THIS AFTN, 00Z GFS CONTS TO SHOW SOME SHOWER DVLPMNT
ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER BY 00Z THIS EVNG. 12Z EURO/00Z NAM DOES NOT
INDICATE THIS, HWVR SOME HIRES MODELS DO DEPICT SHOWERS DVLPNG. THIS
LKLY IN ASSOC WITH BNDRY ALOFT MVG NORTH THRU THE AREA COUPLED WITH
H9 WINDS ARND 15KTS ALONG WITH THETA-E RIDGE. PW VALUES IN RESPONSE
TO LLM INCRSG RISE FM 0.5 INCHES TO 0.8 INCHES ACRS FAR SRN CNTYS.
THUS WL SEE A VRY SLGT RISE IN POPS AFT 21Z ACRS NEPA WITH JUST AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION FOR LATE THIS AFTN. MAY ALSO SEE A SHOWER OR
TWO DVLP OROGRAPHICALLY ACRS WRN CATS TDA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...
BNDRY LIFTS THRU TONIGHT LEADING TO STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABV THE SFC
AFT 06Z ARND 25KTS. THIS WL LEAD TO AN INCRS IN LOW-LVL MOISTURE
ACRS SRN AND WRN ZONES AFT MIDNIGHT WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND
MARINE LYR APPCHG. MOCLDY SKIES WL OVRSPRD ENTIRE CWA TWD 12Z WITH
LOWEST CIGS LOCATED OVR POCONOS AND WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. HV KEPT
IN ISOLD SHOWER MENTION THRU 12Z SUNDAY, THO IT IS POSSIBLE PCPN MAY
BE IN THE FORM OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. WITH MOCLDY SKIES AND SRLY FLOW
OVRNGT LOWS TONIGHT WL BE IN THE 50S MOST LOCALES.
SUNDAY WL FEATURE MUCH OF THE SAME AS TNGT WITH STRONG LL MOISTURE
RIDING NORTH INTO THE AREA, ALONG WITH MOCLDY SKIES. TEMPS WL WARM
AGAIN INTO THE 70S WITH CHC FOR SHOWERS CONTG OFF AND ON THRU THE
DAY. PW VALUES INCRS TO ARND 1 INCH WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FRCG EXPECTED AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST.
UL RIDGE APPEARS TO HOLD TUFF FOR SUN NGT, HWVR 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z
EC INDICATE UL WEAKNESS DVLPNG IN THE OH/TN VLYS. GIVEN INCRSG SFC
DWPTS AND CONTD SERLY FLOW INTO CWA, ALONG WITH WEAKNESS
UNDERCUTTING H5 RIDGE WL CONT MENTION FOR CHC SHOWERS SUNDAY NGT
WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXPECTED. SOME MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS OF LL FLOW BCMG MORE SWRLY WITH TIME AFT 06Z
MONDAY WITH MAJORITY OF POPS CONFINED TO SRN ZONES AFTER THIS TIME.
INSTABILITY INCREASES FOR MONDAY WITH CAPES APPCHG 500 J/KG ON
LATEST NAM/GFS SOLNS THUS HV MAINTAINED CHCS FOR THUNDER ON MONDAY
AND THRU THE OVRNGT PD. DWPTS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S BY 12Z
TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONT THRU THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM AND BYND.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...UPDATED MED RNG WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE BUT
OVERALL FCST REMAINS THE SAME...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF
THE PD DUE TO MEANDERING FNTL BNDRY AND SLOW MOVG UPR SYSTEM.
DIFFS IN THE SPEED OF THIS UPR TROF BUT GNRL AGREEMENT THAT SFC CDFNT
WILL PASS LATE IN THE WEEK (MOST LIKELY FRI) WITH HIGH PRES
HOPEFULLY BUILDING IN FOR NXT WEEKEND. PREV BLO...
200 PM UPDATE...
SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM BUT UNSETTLED LONG TERM PERIOD FOLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL COOL DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL FALL IN THE EAST...IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE THE RESULT WILL BE AN
EAST/WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL START OFF TO OUR NORTH BUT
GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY MEANDERING NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
MID- WEEK. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS
(40-50%) AS PERIODS OF RAIN APPEAR LIKE A GOOD BET EVEN AT THIS
DISTANT VIEW. INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER BOTH DAY AND NIGHT
WITH CAPES OF 500 J/KG THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE MAY COOL OFF A BIT
TOWARD THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE EURO IS CORRECT...AS THE
BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE MAY SLIDE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN. A MORE PRONOUNCED SHOT OF COOLER AIR
LOOKS TO BE ON TAP EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS BOTH THE GFS AND EURO
SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...SWEEPING OUT EAST/EAST
BOUNDARY OUT TO SEA.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVNGV HRS...THEN MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD TO MOV INTO SRN NY AND NE PA LATER TNGT. THIS
MRNG THE FCST AREA WILL SEE BKN-0VC MID TO HI LVL CLDS. LATER THIS
AFTN...PROFILES SUGGEST THE DVLPMNT OF A 4-5 KFT CU DECK ACRS THE
SRN TIER OF NY AND NE PA. AFTER 04Z...POTNL FOR A MARINE LAYER TO
WORK INTO THE SRN TIER AND NE PA ON SE/SRLY LOW LVL FLOW...AND
INDICATED MVFR CIGS AT ELM/BGM/AVP/ITH AFTER THIS TIME. WINDS L&V
OR LGT SE TIL MID MRNG...THEN SE TO SRLY FLOW ARND 10 KTS LATE
MRNG PERSISTING INTO THE EVNG HRS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...POTNL FOR MVFR SUNDAY NGT INTO MON MRNG
MAINLY SRN TIER AND NE PA.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/RRM
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
|
