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000
FXUS61 KBGM 051423 AAA
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1023 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A HEAVIER AND STEADIER RAIN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE...ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER AND POP/WX FORECAST. HAVE SEEN A BREAK IN
THE STRATO-CU CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND AREAS
ADJACENT TO LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING...BUT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO
FILL BACK IN. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE PERSISTENT PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN REMAINS IN
PLACE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE
ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA, NOT REALLY
MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING SO NOT SEEING MUCH PRECIP. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE MAINLY PRECIP FREE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OTHER
THAN AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER OR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
INTO EARLY THIS MORNING HOWEVER AS MOST AREAS ARE SEEING TD
DEPRESSIONS OF AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. SOME SHORTWAVE FORCING MOVING NORTH FROM THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS COMBINED
WITH WEAK HEATING MAY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SO CHANCE
POPS ARE INDICATED ACROSS MOST AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
ANOTHER MAINLY CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
COAST WITH THE RESULT BEING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
DELMARVA. AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PIVOT NW AROUND THIS DEEP
CIRCULATION EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT OVER S/E PARTS OF THE CWA FROM NE PA THROUGH
SULLIVAN/DELAWARE COUNTIES INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WET DAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW SIT SOUTH OF THE AREA. A DEEP AND MOIST E/SE
FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW RAIN INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CLOSE TO 7C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN
ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO EVEN BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE FORECAST MODELS REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS HOWEVER THE GENERAL IDEA WILL BE FOR HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OVER NE PA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES OF
NY. UPWARDS OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY
OVER NE PA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPS COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, NEXT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW ACTING TO KICK OUT FRIDAY`S SYSTEM.
THUS, EXPECT RAIN DIMINISHING TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
THE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TO BE TOO WET OF A DAY THOUGH AT BEST
ONLY PARTLY SUNNY FOR MOST AREAS AS SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME LOW 70S
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN OCCURS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN OVERALL TROUGHY AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, SHOWERS MOVE OUT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S. BEYOND THIS TIME WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGING MOVES
IN FOR MONDAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. THE FAIR WEATHER WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REGION WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW...THOUGH A FEW SITES ARE STARTING TO SHOWS CIGS RISING AND
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 14-16Z FOR ALL SITES. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AT 5-8 KTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
STARTING IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS WELL...WINDS WILL LIGHTEN
AND MAY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 06/00Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AROUND 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

MON...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...BJT/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...ABS





000
FXUS61 KBGM 051053
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
653 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A HEAVIER AND STEADIER RAIN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN REMAINS IN PLACE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE ABUNDANT LOW
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA, NOT REALLY MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FORCING SO NOT SEEING MUCH PRECIP. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE
MAINLY PRECIP FREE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OTHER THAN AN
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER OR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. SOME FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING HOWEVER AS MOST AREAS ARE SEEING TD DEPRESSIONS OF AT
LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
SOME SHORTWAVE FORCING MOVING NORTH FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK HEATING
MAY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SO CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
ACROSS MOST AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE ANOTHER MAINLY
CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
COAST WITH THE RESULT BEING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
DELMARVA. AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PIVOT NW AROUND THIS DEEP
CIRCULATION EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT OVER S/E PARTS OF THE CWA FROM NE PA THROUGH
SULLIVAN/DELAWARE COUNTIES INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WET DAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW SIT SOUTH OF THE AREA. A DEEP AND MOIST E/SE
FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW RAIN INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CLOSE TO 7C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN
ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO EVEN BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE FORECAST MODELS REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS HOWEVER THE GENERAL IDEA WILL BE FOR HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OVER NE PA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES OF
NY. UPWARDS OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY
OVER NE PA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPS COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, NEXT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW ACTING TO KICK OUT FRIDAY`S SYSTEM.
THUS, EXPECT RAIN DIMINISHING TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
THE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TO BE TOO WET OF A DAY THOUGH AT BEST
ONLY PARTLY SUNNY FOR MOST AREAS AS SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME LOW 70S
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN OCCURS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN OVERALL TROUGHY AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, SHOWERS MOVE OUT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S. BEYOND THIS TIME WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGING MOVES
IN FOR MONDAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. THE FAIR WEATHER WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REGION WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW...THOUGH A FEW SITES ARE STARTING TO SHOWS CIGS RISING AND
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 14-16Z FOR ALL SITES. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AT 5-8 KTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
STARTING IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS WELL...WINDS WILL LIGHTEN
AND MAY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 06/00Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AROUND 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

MON...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...ABS





000
FXUS61 KBGM 051053
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
653 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A HEAVIER AND STEADIER RAIN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN REMAINS IN PLACE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE ABUNDANT LOW
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA, NOT REALLY MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FORCING SO NOT SEEING MUCH PRECIP. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE
MAINLY PRECIP FREE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OTHER THAN AN
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER OR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. SOME FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING HOWEVER AS MOST AREAS ARE SEEING TD DEPRESSIONS OF AT
LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
SOME SHORTWAVE FORCING MOVING NORTH FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK HEATING
MAY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SO CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
ACROSS MOST AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE ANOTHER MAINLY
CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
COAST WITH THE RESULT BEING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
DELMARVA. AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PIVOT NW AROUND THIS DEEP
CIRCULATION EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT OVER S/E PARTS OF THE CWA FROM NE PA THROUGH
SULLIVAN/DELAWARE COUNTIES INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WET DAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW SIT SOUTH OF THE AREA. A DEEP AND MOIST E/SE
FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW RAIN INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CLOSE TO 7C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN
ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO EVEN BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE FORECAST MODELS REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS HOWEVER THE GENERAL IDEA WILL BE FOR HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OVER NE PA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES OF
NY. UPWARDS OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY
OVER NE PA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPS COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, NEXT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW ACTING TO KICK OUT FRIDAY`S SYSTEM.
THUS, EXPECT RAIN DIMINISHING TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
THE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TO BE TOO WET OF A DAY THOUGH AT BEST
ONLY PARTLY SUNNY FOR MOST AREAS AS SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME LOW 70S
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN OCCURS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN OVERALL TROUGHY AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, SHOWERS MOVE OUT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S. BEYOND THIS TIME WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGING MOVES
IN FOR MONDAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. THE FAIR WEATHER WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REGION WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW...THOUGH A FEW SITES ARE STARTING TO SHOWS CIGS RISING AND
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 14-16Z FOR ALL SITES. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AT 5-8 KTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
STARTING IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS WELL...WINDS WILL LIGHTEN
AND MAY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 06/00Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AROUND 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

MON...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...ABS





000
FXUS61 KBGM 050709
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
309 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A HEAVIER AND STEADIER RAIN FOR FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN REMAINS IN PLACE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE ABUNDANT LOW
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA, NOT REALLY MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FORCING SO NOT SEEING MUCH PRECIP. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE
MAINLY PRECIP FREE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OTHER THAN AN
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER OR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. SOME FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING HOWEVER AS MOST AREAS ARE SEEING TD DEPRESSIONS OF AT
LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
SOME SHORTWAVE FORCING MOVING NORTH FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK HEATING
MAY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SO CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
ACROSS MOST AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE ANOTHER MAINLY
CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
COAST WITH THE RESULT BEING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
DELMARVA. AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PIVOT NW AROUND THIS DEEP
CIRCULATION EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT OVER S/E PARTS OF THE CWA FROM NE PA THROUGH
SULLIVAN/DELAWARE COUNTIES INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WET DAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW SIT SOUTH OF THE AREA. A DEEP AND MOIST E/SE
FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW RAIN INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CLOSE TO 7C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN
ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO EVEN BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE FORECAST MODELS REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS HOWEVER THE GENERAL IDEA WILL BE FOR HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OVER NE PA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES OF
NY. UPWARDS OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY
OVER NE PA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPS COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, NEXT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW ACTING TO KICK OUT FRIDAY`S SYSTEM.
THUS, EXPECT RAIN DIMINISHING TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
THE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TO BE TOO WET OF A DAY THOUGH AT BEST
ONLY PARTLY SUNNY FOR MOST AREAS AS SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME LOW 70S
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN OCCURS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN OVERALL TROUGHY AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, SHOWERS MOVE OUT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S. BEYOND THIS TIME WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGING MOVES
IN FOR MONDAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. THE FAIR WEATHER WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY INTO
MIDWEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REGION WITH JUST KBGM AT THIS TIME
BELOW IFR. MVFR TO BORDERLINE IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. AFTER MID MORNING
CIGS WILL RISE AND MVFR TO VFR WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION
WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN EVEN MORE
AND MAY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 06/00Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AROUND 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

MON...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...ABS





000
FXUS61 KBGM 050709
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
309 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A HEAVIER AND STEADIER RAIN FOR FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN REMAINS IN PLACE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE ABUNDANT LOW
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA, NOT REALLY MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FORCING SO NOT SEEING MUCH PRECIP. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE
MAINLY PRECIP FREE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OTHER THAN AN
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER OR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. SOME FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING HOWEVER AS MOST AREAS ARE SEEING TD DEPRESSIONS OF AT
LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
SOME SHORTWAVE FORCING MOVING NORTH FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK HEATING
MAY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SO CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
ACROSS MOST AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE ANOTHER MAINLY
CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
COAST WITH THE RESULT BEING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
DELMARVA. AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PIVOT NW AROUND THIS DEEP
CIRCULATION EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT OVER S/E PARTS OF THE CWA FROM NE PA THROUGH
SULLIVAN/DELAWARE COUNTIES INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WET DAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW SIT SOUTH OF THE AREA. A DEEP AND MOIST E/SE
FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW RAIN INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CLOSE TO 7C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN
ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO EVEN BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE FORECAST MODELS REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS HOWEVER THE GENERAL IDEA WILL BE FOR HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OVER NE PA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES OF
NY. UPWARDS OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY
OVER NE PA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPS COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, NEXT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW ACTING TO KICK OUT FRIDAY`S SYSTEM.
THUS, EXPECT RAIN DIMINISHING TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
THE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TO BE TOO WET OF A DAY THOUGH AT BEST
ONLY PARTLY SUNNY FOR MOST AREAS AS SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME LOW 70S
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN OCCURS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN OVERALL TROUGHY AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, SHOWERS MOVE OUT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S. BEYOND THIS TIME WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGING MOVES
IN FOR MONDAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. THE FAIR WEATHER WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY INTO
MIDWEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REGION WITH JUST KBGM AT THIS TIME
BELOW IFR. MVFR TO BORDERLINE IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. AFTER MID MORNING
CIGS WILL RISE AND MVFR TO VFR WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION
WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN EVEN MORE
AND MAY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 06/00Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AROUND 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

MON...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...ABS





000
FXUS61 KBGM 050539
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
139 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY WITH MORE RAIN
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAY`S HEATING WAS
LEADING TO THE DEMISE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA AT THIS TIME. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT, I DON`T SEE
ANY FORCING JUST A LOT OF CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS SC NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. NEXT FEATURE OF SIGNIFICANCE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT WAS SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM INDIANA AND OHIO. THIS LOW WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS BY
THU AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE
OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT OF THIS THROUGH THURSDAY. BEST
FORCING WILL BE SOUTH INTO PA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. SO
HAVE CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY THU AND SLGHT CHANCE
FARTHER NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THIS UNSETTLED COOL EARLY MAY PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH VERY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ROTATING TO THE N/NW AROUND
THE LOW...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EITHER END OR TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN.

A LOBE OF THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NWD
ACROSS ERN PA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND BRING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN ACROSS NE PA. STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING ADDITIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY
AND BRING WITH IT HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.

AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER TO THE NE ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WEAK RIDGING AND A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW THE RAIN
TO EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRAY
RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE DRIER.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S...AND LOWS IN THE 40S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO
SEE NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IF CLOUD COVER
SCATTERS OUT EARLY ENOUGH AND REMAINS MOSTLY SUNNY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND A HIGH SUN ANGLE UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S.
THE NICE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
LOOMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPR LOW AND ATTENDANT
SFC LOW... WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NY AND PA. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF
THE AREA MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
ON MONDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS... HOWEVER IT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING
SHOWERS TO THE REGION WILL START TO IMPACT THE REGION BY TUES
EVENING. GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY DIFFERS ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE SFC LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT OVERALL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR RAIN STARTING TUES EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REGION WITH JUST KBGM AT THIS TIME
BELOW IFR. MVFR TO BORDERLINE IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. AFTER MID MORNING
CIGS WILL RISE AND MVFR TO VFR WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION
WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN EVEN MORE
AND MAY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 06/00Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AROUND 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

MON...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...ABS





000
FXUS61 KBGM 050154
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
954 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY WITH MORE RAIN
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAY`S HEATING WAS
LEADING TO THE DEMISE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA AT THIS TIME. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT, I DON`T SEE
ANY FORCING JUST A LOT OF CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS SC NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. NEXT FEATURE OF SIGNIFICANCE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT WAS SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM INDIANA AND OHIO. THIS LOW WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS BY
THU AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE
OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT OF THIS THROUGH THURSDAY. BEST
FORCING WILL BE SOUTH INTO PA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. SO
HAVE CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY THU AND SLGHT CHANCE
FARTHER NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THIS UNSETTLED COOL EARLY MAY PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH VERY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ROTATING TO THE N/NW AROUND
THE LOW...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EITHER END OR TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN.

A LOBE OF THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NWD
ACROSS ERN PA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND BRING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN ACROSS NE PA. STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING ADDITIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY
AND BRING WITH IT HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.

AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER TO THE NE ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WEAK RIDGING AND A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW THE RAIN
TO EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRAY
RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE DRIER.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S...AND LOWS IN THE 40S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO
SEE NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IF CLOUD COVER
SCATTERS OUT EARLY ENOUGH AND REMAINS MOSTLY SUNNY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND A HIGH SUN ANGLE UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S.
THE NICE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
LOOMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPR LOW AND ATTENDANT
SFC LOW... WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NY AND PA. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF
THE AREA MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
ON MONDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS... HOWEVER IT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING
SHOWERS TO THE REGION WILL START TO IMPACT THE REGION BY TUES
EVENING. GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY DIFFERS ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE SFC LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT OVERALL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR RAIN STARTING TUES EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK MIXING WILL RESULT IN
LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT MIST. INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW CIGS TO IMPROVE INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY DURING THE MORNING. AT KRME/KSYR/KITH, CIGS WILL LOWER
INTO THE MVFR/ALT REQUIRED CATEGORY THIS EVENING. AT KELM, CIGS
WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 06Z WITH IFR POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. AT KBGM/KAVP, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT ALT
REQUIRED WITH IFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. ALL TAF SITES WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z- 16Z.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AROUND 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

MON...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 050021
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
821 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN UNDER A BROAD STABLE CLOUD SHIELD THIS MORNING HAS
MOVED OFF TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAS ALLOWED MUCH OF THE
ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

AREAS TO THE WEST FROM STEUBEN COUNTY NWD THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES
SAW PARTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRESENCE OF 100 TO
200 J/KG OF BL CAPE COMBINED WITH SFC LI AROUND -3 WILL ALLOW THE
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE LIFT NECESSARY
FOR THE RAIN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH VERY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ROTATING TO THE N/NW AROUND
THE LOW...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EITHER END OR TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN.

A LOBE OF THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NWD
ACROSS ERN PA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND BRING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN ACROSS NE PA. STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING ADDITIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY
AND BRING WITH IT HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.

AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER TO THE NE ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WEAK RIDGING AND A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW THE RAIN
TO EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRAY
RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE DRIER.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S...AND LOWS IN THE 40S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO
SEE NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IF CLOUD COVER
SCATTERS OUT EARLY ENOUGH AND REMAINS MOSTLY SUNNY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND A HIGH SUN ANGLE UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S.
THE NICE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
LOOMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPR LOW AND ATTENDANT
SFC LOW... WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NY AND PA. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF
THE AREA MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
ON MONDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS... HOWEVER IT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING
SHOWERS TO THE REGION WILL START TO IMPACT THE REGION BY TUES
EVENING. GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY DIFFERS ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE SFC LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT OVERALL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR RAIN STARTING TUES EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK MIXING WILL RESULT IN
LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT MIST. INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW CIGS TO IMPROVE INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY DURING THE MORNING. AT KRME/KSYR/KITH, CIGS WILL LOWER
INTO THE MVFR/ALT REQUIRED CATEGORY THIS EVENING. AT KELM, CIGS
WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 06Z WITH IFR POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. AT KBGM/KAVP, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT ALT
REQUIRED WITH IFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. ALL TAF SITES WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z- 16Z.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AROUND 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

MON...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 050021
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
821 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN UNDER A BROAD STABLE CLOUD SHIELD THIS MORNING HAS
MOVED OFF TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAS ALLOWED MUCH OF THE
ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

AREAS TO THE WEST FROM STEUBEN COUNTY NWD THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES
SAW PARTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRESENCE OF 100 TO
200 J/KG OF BL CAPE COMBINED WITH SFC LI AROUND -3 WILL ALLOW THE
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE LIFT NECESSARY
FOR THE RAIN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH VERY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ROTATING TO THE N/NW AROUND
THE LOW...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EITHER END OR TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN.

A LOBE OF THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NWD
ACROSS ERN PA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND BRING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN ACROSS NE PA. STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING ADDITIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY
AND BRING WITH IT HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.

AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER TO THE NE ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WEAK RIDGING AND A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW THE RAIN
TO EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRAY
RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE DRIER.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S...AND LOWS IN THE 40S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO
SEE NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IF CLOUD COVER
SCATTERS OUT EARLY ENOUGH AND REMAINS MOSTLY SUNNY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND A HIGH SUN ANGLE UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S.
THE NICE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
LOOMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPR LOW AND ATTENDANT
SFC LOW... WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NY AND PA. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF
THE AREA MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
ON MONDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS... HOWEVER IT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING
SHOWERS TO THE REGION WILL START TO IMPACT THE REGION BY TUES
EVENING. GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY DIFFERS ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE SFC LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT OVERALL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR RAIN STARTING TUES EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK MIXING WILL RESULT IN
LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT MIST. INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW CIGS TO IMPROVE INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY DURING THE MORNING. AT KRME/KSYR/KITH, CIGS WILL LOWER
INTO THE MVFR/ALT REQUIRED CATEGORY THIS EVENING. AT KELM, CIGS
WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 06Z WITH IFR POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. AT KBGM/KAVP, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT ALT
REQUIRED WITH IFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. ALL TAF SITES WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z- 16Z.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AROUND 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

MON...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 041935
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
335 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN UNDER A BROAD STABLE CLOUD SHIELD THIS MORNING HAS
MOVED OFF TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAS ALLOWED MUCH OF THE
ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

AREAS TO THE WEST FROM STEUBEN COUNTY NWD THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES
SAW PARTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRESENCE OF 100 TO
200 J/KG OF BL CAPE COMBINED WITH SFC LI AROUND -3 WILL ALLOW THE
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE LIFT NECESSARY
FOR THE RAIN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH VERY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ROTATING TO THE N/NW AROUND
THE LOW...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EITHER END OR TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN.

A LOBE OF THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NWD
ACROSS ERN PA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND BRING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN ACROSS NE PA. STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING ADDITIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY
AND BRING WITH IT HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.

AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER TO THE NE ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WEAK RIDGING AND A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW THE RAIN
TO EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRAY
RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE DRIER.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S...AND LOWS IN THE 40S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO
SEE NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IF CLOUD COVER
SCATTERS OUT EARLY ENOUGH AND REMAINS MOSTLY SUNNY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND A HIGH SUN ANGLE UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S.
THE NICE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
LOOMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPR LOW AND ATTENDANT
SFC LOW... WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NY AND PA. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF
THE AREA MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
ON MONDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS... HOWEVER IT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING
SHOWERS TO THE REGION WILL START TO IMPACT THE REGION BY TUES
EVENING. GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY DIFFERS ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE SFC LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT OVERALL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR RAIN STARTING TUES EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS PA AND NY THIS AFTERNOON
AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST CEILING HEIGHTS SHOULD LIFT TO A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR WITH EMBEDDED LOW END MVFR. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE IFR VISBYS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW ATTM TO PLACE THUNDER IN ANY TAF SITE. THIS EVENING THE
FORECAST BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING. EXPECT ANOTHER STRATUS DECK TO
DEVELOP... BUT WITH A NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION DO
NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO BE STURDY THURS MORNING AND AS LONG.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU THE DAY... THEN SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY FLOW BY SUNRISE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURS & FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

MON...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 041935
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
335 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN UNDER A BROAD STABLE CLOUD SHIELD THIS MORNING HAS
MOVED OFF TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAS ALLOWED MUCH OF THE
ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

AREAS TO THE WEST FROM STEUBEN COUNTY NWD THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES
SAW PARTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRESENCE OF 100 TO
200 J/KG OF BL CAPE COMBINED WITH SFC LI AROUND -3 WILL ALLOW THE
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE LIFT NECESSARY
FOR THE RAIN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH VERY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ROTATING TO THE N/NW AROUND
THE LOW...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EITHER END OR TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN.

A LOBE OF THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NWD
ACROSS ERN PA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND BRING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN ACROSS NE PA. STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING ADDITIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY
AND BRING WITH IT HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.

AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER TO THE NE ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WEAK RIDGING AND A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW THE RAIN
TO EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRAY
RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE DRIER.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S...AND LOWS IN THE 40S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO
SEE NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IF CLOUD COVER
SCATTERS OUT EARLY ENOUGH AND REMAINS MOSTLY SUNNY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND A HIGH SUN ANGLE UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S.
THE NICE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
LOOMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPR LOW AND ATTENDANT
SFC LOW... WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NY AND PA. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF
THE AREA MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
ON MONDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS... HOWEVER IT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING
SHOWERS TO THE REGION WILL START TO IMPACT THE REGION BY TUES
EVENING. GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY DIFFERS ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE SFC LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT OVERALL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR RAIN STARTING TUES EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS PA AND NY THIS AFTERNOON
AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST CEILING HEIGHTS SHOULD LIFT TO A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR WITH EMBEDDED LOW END MVFR. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE IFR VISBYS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW ATTM TO PLACE THUNDER IN ANY TAF SITE. THIS EVENING THE
FORECAST BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING. EXPECT ANOTHER STRATUS DECK TO
DEVELOP... BUT WITH A NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION DO
NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO BE STURDY THURS MORNING AND AS LONG.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU THE DAY... THEN SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY FLOW BY SUNRISE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURS & FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

MON...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 041742
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE, WILL BE OUR MAIN
CONTROLLING FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, MOSTLY CLOUDY,
SHOWERY, AND COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY
OCCUR BY SATURDAY, AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST, AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY EXPANDING ACROSS
EASTERN PA.  IN THE MEANTIME, FARTHER NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY,
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY DRIZZLE PREVAIL.

WE EXPECT A GRADUAL NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SHOWERS TODAY,
AS A SHORT-WAVE SEEN OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING, ALSO
ROTATES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE LIKELY
PROBABILITIES INDICATED, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND FROM ABOUT
THE I-81 CORRIDOR EASTWARD.  AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
COOL TODAY, SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION, AND WE DO HAVE THIS INCLUDED AS WELL.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 50S-LOWER 60S, WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS UP OVER OUR NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND LAKE PLAIN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
425 AM UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A SLOW MOVING MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THIS
PERIOD. IT SEEMS LIKELY, GIVEN THE BLOCKINESS OF THE PATTERN AND
TIME OF YEAR, THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FORM.  ALTHOUGH THE
EXACT POSITIONING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LOW DIFFERS A BIT
FROM MODEL TO MODEL, A GENERAL TRAJECTORY FROM THE OH VALLEY
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THU.-FRI. SEEMS PROBABLE.

THE COMBINATION OF A COOL MOIST E-SE FLOW, AND MULTIPLE SHORT-
WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW, WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND PERIODIC SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT, THE MOST PERSISTENT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND NY`S SOUTHERN TIER
LATER THU. NIGHT INTO FRI. OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LESS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY, WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S-MID 60S RANGE (AGAIN WARMEST ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES).

THE LOG JAM MAY BEGIN TO BREAK LATER FRI. NIGHT OR EARLY SAT., AS
MOST MODEL SCENARIOS HAVE THE UPPER LOW FILLING AND SLOWLY SHIFTING
OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS GENERALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD AND ONLY
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS LONG RANGE FORECAST BY UTILIZING NEW
SUPERBLEND.

PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH FINALLY STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THE LONG RANGE. FOR SATURDAY, UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. OVERALL, LOOKING AT
A MOSTLY DRY DAY UNDER A MIX OF SUN/CLOUDS ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR N/W ZONES BY LATE DAY AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH COOLER TEMPS FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AS HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. BEYOND THIS TIME HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BRINGING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOL
MONDAY BEFORE MODERATING TO SEASONAL FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS PA AND NY THIS AFTERNOON
AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST CEILING HEIGHTS SHOULD LIFT TO A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR WITH EMBEDDED LOW END MVFR. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE IFR VISBYS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW ATTM TO PLACE THUNDER IN ANY TAF SITE. THIS EVENING THE
FORECAST BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING. EXPECT ANOTHER STRATUS DECK TO
DEVELOP... BUT WITH A NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION DO
NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO BE STURDY THURS MORNING AND AS LONG.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU THE DAY... THEN SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY FLOW BY SUNRISE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURS & FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

MON...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 041048
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE, WILL BE OUR MAIN
CONTROLLING FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, MOSTLY CLOUDY,
SHOWERY, AND COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY
OCCUR BY SATURDAY, AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST, AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY EXPANDING ACROSS
EASTERN PA.  IN THE MEANTIME, FARTHER NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY,
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY DRIZZLE PREVAIL.

WE EXPECT A GRADUAL NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SHOWERS TODAY,
AS A SHORT-WAVE SEEN OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING, ALSO
ROTATES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE LIKELY
PROBABILITIES INDICATED, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND FROM ABOUT
THE I-81 CORRIDOR EASTWARD.  AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
COOL TODAY, SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION, AND WE DO HAVE THIS INCLUDED AS WELL.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 50S-LOWER 60S, WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS UP OVER OUR NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND LAKE PLAIN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
425 AM UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A SLOW MOVING MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THIS
PERIOD. IT SEEMS LIKELY, GIVEN THE BLOCKINESS OF THE PATTERN AND
TIME OF YEAR, THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FORM.  ALTHOUGH THE
EXACT POSITIONING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LOW DIFFERS A BIT
FROM MODEL TO MODEL, A GENERAL TRAJECTORY FROM THE OH VALLEY
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THU.-FRI. SEEMS PROBABLE.

THE COMBINATION OF A COOL MOIST E-SE FLOW, AND MULTIPLE SHORT-
WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW, WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND PERIODIC SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT, THE MOST PERSISTENT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND NY`S SOUTHERN TIER
LATER THU. NIGHT INTO FRI. OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LESS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY, WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S-MID 60S RANGE (AGAIN WARMEST ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES).

THE LOG JAM MAY BEGIN TO BREAK LATER FRI. NIGHT OR EARLY SAT., AS
MOST MODEL SCENARIOS HAVE THE UPPER LOW FILLING AND SLOWLY SHIFTING
OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS GENERALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD AND ONLY
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS LONG RANGE FORECAST BY UTILIZING NEW
SUPERBLEND.

PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH FINALLY STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THE LONG RANGE. FOR SATURDAY, UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. OVERALL, LOOKING AT
A MOSTLY DRY DAY UNDER A MIX OF SUN/CLOUDS ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR N/W ZONES BY LATE DAY AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH COOLER TEMPS FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AS HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. BEYOND THIS TIME HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BRINGING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOL
MONDAY BEFORE MODERATING TO SEASONAL FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE, SHOWERS
AND AREAS OF FOG AND MIST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RESTRICTIONS. FOR
KBGM/KELM, EXPECT VISBYS BELOW ALTERNATE MINS AT TIMES THIS
MORNING WITH KBGM REMAINING MAINLY IN IFR RIGHT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WHILE KELM SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
KAVP, GENERALLY EXPECT CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR
THIS MORNING IN SHOWERS BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON
THEN IFR AGAIN TONIGHT. THE THREE NORTHERN SITES, KITH/KSYR/KRME,
WILL ALSO BE MAINLY MVFR RIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO CIGS.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...

WED NGT THROUGH FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER
CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 040840
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
440 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE, WILL BE OUR MAIN
CONTROLLING FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, MOSTLY CLOUDY,
SHOWERY, AND COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY
OCCUR BY SATURDAY, AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST, AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY EXPANDING ACROSS
EASTERN PA.  IN THE MEANTIME, FARTHER NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY,
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY DRIZZLE PREVAIL.

WE EXPECT A GRADUAL NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SHOWERS TODAY,
AS A SHORT-WAVE SEEN OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING, ALSO
ROTATES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE LIKELY
PROBABILITIES INDICATED, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND FROM ABOUT
THE I-81 CORRIDOR EASTWARD.  AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
COOL TODAY, SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION, AND WE DO HAVE THIS INCLUDED AS WELL.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 50S-LOWER 60S, WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS UP OVER OUR NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND LAKE PLAIN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
425 AM UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A SLOW MOVING MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THIS
PERIOD. IT SEEMS LIKELY, GIVEN THE BLOCKINESS OF THE PATTERN AND
TIME OF YEAR, THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FORM.  ALTHOUGH THE
EXACT POSITIONING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LOW DIFFERS A BIT
FROM MODEL TO MODEL, A GENERAL TRAJECTORY FROM THE OH VALLEY
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THU.-FRI. SEEMS PROBABLE.

THE COMBINATION OF A COOL MOIST E-SE FLOW, AND MULTIPLE SHORT-
WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW, WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND PERIODIC SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT, THE MOST PERSISTENT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND NY`S SOUTHERN TIER
LATER THU. NIGHT INTO FRI. OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LESS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY, WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S-MID 60S RANGE (AGAIN WARMEST ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES).

THE LOG JAM MAY BEGIN TO BREAK LATER FRI. NIGHT OR EARLY SAT., AS
MOST MODEL SCENARIOS HAVE THE UPPER LOW FILLING AND SLOWLY SHIFTING
OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS GENERALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD AND ONLY
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS LONG RANGE FORECAST BY UTILIZING NEW
SUPERBLEND.

PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH FINALLY STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THE LONG RANGE. FOR SATURDAY, UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. OVERALL, LOOKING AT
A MOSTLY DRY DAY UNDER A MIX OF SUN/CLOUDS ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR N/W ZONES BY LATE DAY AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH COOLER TEMPS FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AS HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. BEYOND THIS TIME HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BRINGING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOL
MONDAY BEFORE MODERATING TO SEASONAL FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE,
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG AND MIST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
RESTRICTIONS. EXPECT KAVP/KBGM TO SEE IFR TO LOW IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT WITH IFR PERSISTING RIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. FOR KELM/KITH, MAINLY LOOKING AT FUEL ALTERNATE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE KITH MAY SEE OCCASIONAL IFR
VISBYS LATE TONIGHT WITH KELM SEEING A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IN THE
MORNING. THE NORTHERN SITES, KSYR/KRME, REMAIN MAINLY LOW VFR TO
MVFR CIGS. ALL SITES WILL SEE SHOWERS MOVING IN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...

WED NGT THROUGH FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER
CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 040840
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
440 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE, WILL BE OUR MAIN
CONTROLLING FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, MOSTLY CLOUDY,
SHOWERY, AND COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY
OCCUR BY SATURDAY, AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST, AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY EXPANDING ACROSS
EASTERN PA.  IN THE MEANTIME, FARTHER NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY,
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY DRIZZLE PREVAIL.

WE EXPECT A GRADUAL NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SHOWERS TODAY,
AS A SHORT-WAVE SEEN OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING, ALSO
ROTATES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE LIKELY
PROBABILITIES INDICATED, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND FROM ABOUT
THE I-81 CORRIDOR EASTWARD.  AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
COOL TODAY, SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION, AND WE DO HAVE THIS INCLUDED AS WELL.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 50S-LOWER 60S, WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS UP OVER OUR NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND LAKE PLAIN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
425 AM UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A SLOW MOVING MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THIS
PERIOD. IT SEEMS LIKELY, GIVEN THE BLOCKINESS OF THE PATTERN AND
TIME OF YEAR, THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FORM.  ALTHOUGH THE
EXACT POSITIONING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LOW DIFFERS A BIT
FROM MODEL TO MODEL, A GENERAL TRAJECTORY FROM THE OH VALLEY
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THU.-FRI. SEEMS PROBABLE.

THE COMBINATION OF A COOL MOIST E-SE FLOW, AND MULTIPLE SHORT-
WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW, WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND PERIODIC SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT, THE MOST PERSISTENT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND NY`S SOUTHERN TIER
LATER THU. NIGHT INTO FRI. OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LESS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY, WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S-MID 60S RANGE (AGAIN WARMEST ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES).

THE LOG JAM MAY BEGIN TO BREAK LATER FRI. NIGHT OR EARLY SAT., AS
MOST MODEL SCENARIOS HAVE THE UPPER LOW FILLING AND SLOWLY SHIFTING
OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS GENERALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD AND ONLY
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS LONG RANGE FORECAST BY UTILIZING NEW
SUPERBLEND.

PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH FINALLY STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THE LONG RANGE. FOR SATURDAY, UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. OVERALL, LOOKING AT
A MOSTLY DRY DAY UNDER A MIX OF SUN/CLOUDS ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR N/W ZONES BY LATE DAY AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH COOLER TEMPS FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AS HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. BEYOND THIS TIME HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BRINGING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOL
MONDAY BEFORE MODERATING TO SEASONAL FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE,
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG AND MIST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
RESTRICTIONS. EXPECT KAVP/KBGM TO SEE IFR TO LOW IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT WITH IFR PERSISTING RIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. FOR KELM/KITH, MAINLY LOOKING AT FUEL ALTERNATE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE KITH MAY SEE OCCASIONAL IFR
VISBYS LATE TONIGHT WITH KELM SEEING A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IN THE
MORNING. THE NORTHERN SITES, KSYR/KRME, REMAIN MAINLY LOW VFR TO
MVFR CIGS. ALL SITES WILL SEE SHOWERS MOVING IN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...

WED NGT THROUGH FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER
CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 040702
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
302 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPS SOUTHEAST AND COVERS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE
NORTHEAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS, DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 PM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF DRIZZLE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MOIST LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFT
AND NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL KEEP DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISC...
RADARS SHOWS PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHEAST PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. THERE WAS ALSO SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK WINDS AND
NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS LEADING TO MORE
PATCHY FOG AS WELL AS CONTINUED PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH
WEAK, THE FLOW WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO WRING OUT DRIZZLE MAINLY IN
THE UPSLOPE AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALL AREAS OF NE PA AND C NY
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING AND THEN ALL THE WAY TO NC NY
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND DEVELOPS MORE SHOWERS FOR THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A POTENTIAL DRY PERIOD BUT STILL PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE NUMEROUS WEAKER SHORT WAVES AND
UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD ONTO POPS DURING THESE
TIMES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MODELS ADVERTISE A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DIVERGE AS TO HOW FAR
NORTH THE PRECIP MAKES IT WITH THE NAM AND CMC THE FARTHEST SOUTH
AND THE GFS AND EURO MUCH FARTHER NORTH MAKING FRIDAY A VERY RAINY
DAY IN NE PA AND C NY. SO WENT WITH SUPERBLEND FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS GENERALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD AND ONLY
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS LONG RANGE FORECAST BY UTILIZING NEW
SUPERBLEND.

PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH FINALLY STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THE LONG RANGE. FOR SATURDAY, UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. OVERALL, LOOKING AT
A MOSTLY DRY DAY UNDER A MIX OF SUN/CLOUDS ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR N/W ZONES BY LATE DAY AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH COOLER TEMPS FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AS HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. BEYOND THIS TIME HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BRINGING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOL
MONDAY BEFORE MODERATING TO SEASONAL FOR TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE,
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG AND MIST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
RESTRICTIONS. EXPECT KAVP/KBGM TO SEE IFR TO LOW IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT WITH IFR PERSISTING RIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. FOR KELM/KITH, MAINLY LOOKING AT FUEL ALTERNATE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE KITH MAY SEE OCCASIONAL IFR
VISBYS LATE TONIGHT WITH KELM SEEING A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IN THE
MORNING. THE NORTHERN SITES, KSYR/KRME, REMAIN MAINLY LOW VFR TO
MVFR CIGS. ALL SITES WILL SEE SHOWERS MOVING IN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...

WED NGT THROUGH FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER
CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 040529
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
129 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPS SOUTHEAST AND COVERS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE
NORTHEAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS, DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF DRIZZLE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MOIST LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFT
AND NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL KEEP DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISC...
RADARS SHOWS PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHEAST PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. THERE WAS ALSO SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK WINDS AND
NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS LEADING TO MORE
PATCHY FOG AS WELL AS CONTINUED PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH
WEAK, THE FLOW WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO WRING OUT DRIZZLE MAINLY IN
THE UPSLOPE AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALL AREAS OF NE PA AND C NY
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING AND THEN ALL THE WAY TO NC NY
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND DEVELOPS MORE SHOWERS FOR THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A POTENTIAL DRY PERIOD BUT STILL PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE NUMEROUS WEAKER SHORT WAVES AND
UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD ONTO POPS DURING THESE
TIMES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MODELS ADVERTISE A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DIVERGE AS TO HOW FAR
NORTH THE PRECIP MAKES IT WITH THE NAM AND CMC THE FARTHEST SOUTH
AND THE GFS AND EURO MUCH FARTHER NORTH MAKING FRIDAY A VERY RAINY
DAY IN NE PA AND C NY. SO WENT WITH SUPERBLEND FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY
FOR NICE, MAY- LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE,
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG AND MIST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
RESTRICTIONS. EXPECT KAVP/KBGM TO SEE IFR TO LOW IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT WITH IFR PERSISTING RIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. FOR KELM/KITH, MAINLY LOOKING AT FUEL ALTERNATE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE KITH MAY SEE OCCASIONAL IFR
VISBYS LATE TONIGHT WITH KELM SEEING A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IN THE
MORNING. THE NORTHERN SITES, KSYR/KRME, REMAIN MAINLY LOW VFR TO
MVFR CIGS. ALL SITES WILL SEE SHOWERS MOVING IN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...

WED NGT THROUGH FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER
CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 040529
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
129 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPS SOUTHEAST AND COVERS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE
NORTHEAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS, DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF DRIZZLE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MOIST LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFT
AND NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL KEEP DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISC...
RADARS SHOWS PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHEAST PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. THERE WAS ALSO SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK WINDS AND
NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS LEADING TO MORE
PATCHY FOG AS WELL AS CONTINUED PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH
WEAK, THE FLOW WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO WRING OUT DRIZZLE MAINLY IN
THE UPSLOPE AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALL AREAS OF NE PA AND C NY
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING AND THEN ALL THE WAY TO NC NY
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND DEVELOPS MORE SHOWERS FOR THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A POTENTIAL DRY PERIOD BUT STILL PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE NUMEROUS WEAKER SHORT WAVES AND
UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD ONTO POPS DURING THESE
TIMES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MODELS ADVERTISE A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DIVERGE AS TO HOW FAR
NORTH THE PRECIP MAKES IT WITH THE NAM AND CMC THE FARTHEST SOUTH
AND THE GFS AND EURO MUCH FARTHER NORTH MAKING FRIDAY A VERY RAINY
DAY IN NE PA AND C NY. SO WENT WITH SUPERBLEND FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY
FOR NICE, MAY- LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE,
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG AND MIST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
RESTRICTIONS. EXPECT KAVP/KBGM TO SEE IFR TO LOW IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT WITH IFR PERSISTING RIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. FOR KELM/KITH, MAINLY LOOKING AT FUEL ALTERNATE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE KITH MAY SEE OCCASIONAL IFR
VISBYS LATE TONIGHT WITH KELM SEEING A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IN THE
MORNING. THE NORTHERN SITES, KSYR/KRME, REMAIN MAINLY LOW VFR TO
MVFR CIGS. ALL SITES WILL SEE SHOWERS MOVING IN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...

WED NGT THROUGH FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER
CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 040146
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
946 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPS SOUTHEAST AND COVERS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE
NORTHEAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS, DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF DRIZZLE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MOIST LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFT
AND NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL KEEP DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISC...
RADARS SHOWS PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHEAST PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. THERE WAS ALSO SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK WINDS AND
NOCTURAL COOLING WILL LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS LEADING TO MORE PATCHY
FOG AS WELL AS CONTINUED PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH WEAK, THE
FLOW WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO WRING OUT DRIZZLE MAINLY IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALL AREAS OF NE PA AND C NY EXCEPT THE FAR
NORTH THIS EVENING AND THEN ALL THE WAY TO NC NY LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND DEVELOPS MORE SHOWERS FOR THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A POTENTIAL DRY PERIOD BUT STILL PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE NUMEROUS WEAKER SHORT WAVES AND
UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD ONTO POPS DURING THESE
TIMES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MODELS ADVERTISE A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DIVERGE AS TO HOW FAR
NORTH THE PRECIP MAKES IT WITH THE NAM AND CMC THE FARTHEST SOUTH
AND THE GFS AND EURO MUCH FARTHER NORTH MAKING FRIDAY A VERY RAINY
DAY IN NE PA AND C NY. SO WENT WITH SUPERBLEND FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY
FOR NICE, MAY- LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THICKENING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE MOST PREVELANT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AT AVP, BGM, AND ITH.

RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MAY ADD SOME MIXING TO
THE ATMOSPHERE, SLIGHTLY IMPROVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...

WED AFTNOON-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER
CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...DJP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 032246
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPS SOUTHEAST AND COVERS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE
NORTHEAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS, DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADARS SHOWS PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST PA
AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. THERE WAS ALSO SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
REPORTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK WINDS AND NOCTURAL
COOLING WILL LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS LEADING TO MORE PATCHY FOG AS
WELL AS CONTINUED PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH WEAK, THE FLOW
WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO WRING OUT DRIZZLE MAINLY IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALL AREAS OF NE PA AND C NY EXCEPT THE FAR
NORTH THIS EVENING AND THEN ALL THE WAY TO NC NY LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND DEVELOPS MORE SHOWERS FOR THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A POTENTIAL DRY PERIOD BUT STILL PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE NUMEROUS WEAKER SHORT WAVES AND
UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD ONTO POPS DURING THESE
TIMES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MODELS ADVERTISE A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DIVERGE AS TO HOW FAR
NORTH THE PRECIP MAKES IT WITH THE NAM AND CMC THE FARTHEST SOUTH
AND THE GFS AND EURO MUCH FARTHER NORTH MAKING FRIDAY A VERY RAINY
DAY IN NE PA AND C NY. SO WENT WITH SUPERBLEND FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY
FOR NICE, MAY- LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THICKENING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE MOST PREVELANT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AT AVP, BGM, AND ITH.

RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MAY ADD SOME MIXING TO
THE ATMOSPHERE, SLIGHTLY IMPROVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...

WED AFTNOON-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER
CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...DJP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 031847
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
247 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPS SOUTHEAST AND COVERS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE
NORTHEAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS, DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADARS SHOWS PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST PA
AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. THERE WAS ALSO SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
REPORTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK WINDS AND NOCTURAL
COOLING WILL LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS LEADING TO MORE PATCHY FOG AS
WELL AS CONTINUED PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH WEAK, THE FLOW
WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO WRING OUT DRIZZLE MAINLY IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALL AREAS OF NE PA AND C NY EXCEPT THE FAR
NORTH THIS EVENING AND THEN ALL THE WAY TO NC NY LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND DEVELOPS MORE SHOWERS FOR THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A POTENTIAL DRY PERIOD BUT STILL PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE NUMEROUS WEAKER SHORT WAVES AND
UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD ONTO POPS DURING THESE
TIMES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MODELS ADVERTISE A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DIVERGE AS TO HOW FAR
NORTH THE PRECIP MAKES IT WITH THE NAM AND CMC THE FARTHEST SOUTH
AND THE GFS AND EURO MUCH FARTHER NORTH MAKING FRIDAY A VERY RAINY
DAY IN NE PA AND C NY. SO WENT WITH SUPERBLEND FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY
FOR NICE, MAY- LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL PERSIST OR SLIGHTLY IMPROVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR IN THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT MOST
TERMINALS WITH FUEL ALT CIGS AFTER 06Z AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG
LATE TONIGHT. MAY SEE TEMPORARY CONDITIONS BELOW ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS AT KRME, KITH, AND KBGM. WITH THE FOG TONIGHT WILL COME
PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WELL...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO -RA
AROUND 12Z. WILL SEE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT CLOSER TO 18Z AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH HELPS MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

OUTLOOK...

WED AFTNOON-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER
CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...BJT





000
FXUS61 KBGM 031847
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
247 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPS SOUTHEAST AND COVERS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE
NORTHEAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY AND CHILLY WEATHER THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS, DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADARS SHOWS PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST PA
AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. THERE WAS ALSO SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
REPORTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK WINDS AND NOCTURAL
COOLING WILL LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS LEADING TO MORE PATCHY FOG AS
WELL AS CONTINUED PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH WEAK, THE FLOW
WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO WRING OUT DRIZZLE MAINLY IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALL AREAS OF NE PA AND C NY EXCEPT THE FAR
NORTH THIS EVENING AND THEN ALL THE WAY TO NC NY LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND DEVELOPS MORE SHOWERS FOR THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A POTENTIAL DRY PERIOD BUT STILL PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE NUMEROUS WEAKER SHORT WAVES AND
UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD ONTO POPS DURING THESE
TIMES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MODELS ADVERTISE A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS DIVERGE AS TO HOW FAR
NORTH THE PRECIP MAKES IT WITH THE NAM AND CMC THE FARTHEST SOUTH
AND THE GFS AND EURO MUCH FARTHER NORTH MAKING FRIDAY A VERY RAINY
DAY IN NE PA AND C NY. SO WENT WITH SUPERBLEND FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY
FOR NICE, MAY- LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL PERSIST OR SLIGHTLY IMPROVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR IN THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT MOST
TERMINALS WITH FUEL ALT CIGS AFTER 06Z AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG
LATE TONIGHT. MAY SEE TEMPORARY CONDITIONS BELOW ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS AT KRME, KITH, AND KBGM. WITH THE FOG TONIGHT WILL COME
PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WELL...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO -RA
AROUND 12Z. WILL SEE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT CLOSER TO 18Z AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH HELPS MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

OUTLOOK...

WED AFTNOON-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER
CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...BJT





000
FXUS61 KBGM 031746
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, WILL BE OUR DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE, FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT,
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY, SHOWERY WEATHER, ALONG WITH FAIRLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS AND WEATHER. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WAVE HEADING NORTHEAST FROM THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TO NEW ENGLAND. RADARS SHOW NORTHERN EDGE OF
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND THE TWIN
TIER REGION. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTHEAST AND HAVE
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON.
BUT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND MIXING THIS AFTERNOON MORE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS COULD POP UP ESP IN NE PA AND SC NY SO HAVE
SLGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL HANG ON WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

430 AM UPDATE...
STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS IS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING.  WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING, AS THE BETTER ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND SHORT-WAVE SUPPORT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST.

THEREAFTER, ALTHOUGH HIT AND MISS SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NY`S SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA, A LARGE
PORTION OF THE TIME SHOULD END UP RAIN-FREE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SUNNY BREAKS LATER TODAY WILL BE OVER
OUR LAKE PLAIN AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES COUNTIES. OVERALL,
THOUGH, CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE THE UPPER HAND ONCE AGAIN.

AS HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY THE CASE LATELY, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY (MID 50S-LOWER 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
440 AM UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE REST
OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD, WITHIN A BLOCKY, ALTHOUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE REGIME.

DUE TO PROXIMITY OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT-WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
JUST MENTIONED UPPER LOW, AND ALSO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF
INSTABILITY, THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BOTH
WED. AND THU. AFTERNOONS. OUTSIDE OF THESE TIME FRAMES, ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN-FREE PERIODS
INTERSPERSED.

PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER, ALONG WITH COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW, SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY (DAILY HIGHS IN THE 50S-LOWER 60S). A
SMALL SILVER LINING, THOUGH, IS THAT THE LACK OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT NIGHT (DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES) WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT
LOWS UP IN THE 40S, AND PREVENT ANY FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY
FOR NICE, MAY- LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL PERSIST OR SLIGHTLY IMPROVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR IN THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT MOST
TERMINALS WITH FUEL ALT CIGS AFTER 06Z AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG
LATE TONIGHT. MAY SEE TEMPORARY CONDITIONS BELOW ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS AT KRME, KITH, AND KBGM. WITH THE FOG TONIGHT WILL COME
PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WELL...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO -RA
AROUND 12Z. WILL SEE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT CLOSER TO 18Z AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH HELPS MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

OUTLOOK...

WED AFTNOON-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER
CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...BJT





000
FXUS61 KBGM 031434
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1034 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, WILL BE OUR DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE, FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT,
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY, SHOWERY WEATHER, ALONG WITH FAIRLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS AND WEATHER. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WAVE HEADING NORTHEAST FROM THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TO NEW ENGLAND. RADARS SHOW NORTHERN EDGE OF
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND THE TWIN
TIER REGION. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTHEAST AND HAVE
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON.
BUT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND MIXING THIS AFTERNOON MORE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS COULD POP UP ESP IN NE PA AND SC NY SO HAVE
SLGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL HANG ON WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

430 AM UPDATE...
STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS IS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING.  WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING, AS THE BETTER ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND SHORT-WAVE SUPPORT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST.

THEREAFTER, ALTHOUGH HIT AND MISS SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NY`S SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA, A LARGE
PORTION OF THE TIME SHOULD END UP RAIN-FREE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SUNNY BREAKS LATER TODAY WILL BE OVER
OUR LAKE PLAIN AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES COUNTIES. OVERALL,
THOUGH, CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE THE UPPER HAND ONCE AGAIN.

AS HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY THE CASE LATELY, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY (MID 50S-LOWER 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
440 AM UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE REST
OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD, WITHIN A BLOCKY, ALTHOUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE REGIME.

DUE TO PROXIMITY OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT-WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
JUST MENTIONED UPPER LOW, AND ALSO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF
INSTABILITY, THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BOTH
WED. AND THU. AFTERNOONS. OUTSIDE OF THESE TIME FRAMES, ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN-FREE PERIODS
INTERSPERSED.

PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER, ALONG WITH COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW, SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY (DAILY HIGHS IN THE 50S-LOWER 60S). A
SMALL SILVER LINING, THOUGH, IS THAT THE LACK OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT NIGHT (DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES) WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT
LOWS UP IN THE 40S, AND PREVENT ANY FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY
FOR NICE, MAY- LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING....EXPECT FOG WITH IFR/LIFR AT
KRME/KSYR/KITH TO LIFT TO MVFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING WITH KSYR/KITH
SEEING VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MVFR CIGS PERSIST FOR KRME. FOR
KELM/KBGM/KAVP, IFR CIGS WILL BE AN ISSUE THIS MORNING WITH CIGS
LIFTING TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING FOR KAVP AS SHOWERS MOVE OUT AND
TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON FOR KBGM/KELM. CIGS DROP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
ALL SITES SEEING MVFR CIGS BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 031054
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
654 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, WILL BE OUR DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE, FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT,
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY, SHOWERY WEATHER, ALONG WITH FAIRLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
430 AM UPDATE...
STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS IS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING.  WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING, AS THE BETTER ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND SHORT-WAVE SUPPORT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST.

THEREAFTER, ALTHOUGH HIT AND MISS SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NY`S SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA, A LARGE
PORTION OF THE TIME SHOULD END UP RAIN-FREE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SUNNY BREAKS LATER TODAY WILL BE OVER
OUR LAKE PLAIN AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES COUNTIES. OVERALL,
THOUGH, CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE THE UPPER HAND ONCE AGAIN.

AS HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY THE CASE LATELY, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY (MID 50S-LOWER 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
440 AM UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE REST
OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD, WITHIN A BLOCKY, ALTHOUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE REGIME.

DUE TO PROXIMITY OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT-WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
JUST MENTIONED UPPER LOW, AND ALSO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF
INSTABILITY, THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BOTH
WED. AND THU. AFTERNOONS. OUTSIDE OF THESE TIME FRAMES, ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN-FREE PERIODS
INTERSPERSED.

PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER, ALONG WITH COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW, SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY (DAILY HIGHS IN THE 50S-LOWER 60S). A
SMALL SILVER LINING, THOUGH, IS THAT THE LACK OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT NIGHT (DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES) WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT
LOWS UP IN THE 40S, AND PREVENT ANY FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY
FOR NICE, MAY- LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING....EXPECT FOG WITH IFR/LIFR AT
KRME/KSYR/KITH TO LIFT TO MVFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING WITH KSYR/KITH
SEEING VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MVFR CIGS PERSIST FOR KRME. FOR
KELM/KBGM/KAVP, IFR CIGS WILL BE AN ISSUE THIS MORNING WITH CIGS
LIFTING TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING FOR KAVP AS SHOWERS MOVE OUT AND
TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON FOR KBGM/KELM. CIGS DROP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
ALL SITES SEEING MVFR CIGS BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 030840
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
440 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, WILL BE OUR DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE, FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT,
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY, SHOWERY WEATHER, ALONG WITH FAIRLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
430 AM UPDATE...
STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS IS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING.  WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING, AS THE BETTER ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND SHORT-WAVE SUPPORT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST.

THEREAFTER, ALTHOUGH HIT AND MISS SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NY`S SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA, A LARGE
PORTION OF THE TIME SHOULD END UP RAIN-FREE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SUNNY BREAKS LATER TODAY WILL BE OVER
OUR LAKE PLAIN AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES COUNTIES. OVERALL,
THOUGH, CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE THE UPPER HAND ONCE AGAIN.

AS HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY THE CASE LATELY, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY (MID 50S-LOWER 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
440 AM UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE REST
OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD, WITHIN A BLOCKY, ALTHOUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE REGIME.

DUE TO PROXIMITY OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT-WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
JUST MENTIONED UPPER LOW, AND ALSO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF
INSTABILITY, THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BOTH
WED. AND THU. AFTERNOONS. OUTSIDE OF THESE TIME FRAMES, ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN-FREE PERIODS
INTERSPERSED.

PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER, ALONG WITH COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW, SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY (DAILY HIGHS IN THE 50S-LOWER 60S). A
SMALL SILVER LINING, THOUGH, IS THAT THE LACK OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT NIGHT (DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES) WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT
LOWS UP IN THE 40S, AND PREVENT ANY FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY
FOR NICE, MAY- LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WITH RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TAF SITES.
OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO FUEL ALTERNATE MVFR CIGS
EXCEPT IFR LIKELY FOR KITH/KBGM. ALSO, EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
FOR KAVP.

CIGS LIFT FOR TUESDAY WITH SKIES GENERALLY REMAINING BROKEN TO OVERCAST.
EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO PERSIST FOR KAVP WITH KBGM LIFTING TO
MVFR. REMAINING SITES SEE VFR BY AFTERNOON.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP/PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 030840
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
440 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, WILL BE OUR DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE, FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT,
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY, SHOWERY WEATHER, ALONG WITH FAIRLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
430 AM UPDATE...
STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS IS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING.  WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING, AS THE BETTER ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND SHORT-WAVE SUPPORT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST.

THEREAFTER, ALTHOUGH HIT AND MISS SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NY`S SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA, A LARGE
PORTION OF THE TIME SHOULD END UP RAIN-FREE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SUNNY BREAKS LATER TODAY WILL BE OVER
OUR LAKE PLAIN AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES COUNTIES. OVERALL,
THOUGH, CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE THE UPPER HAND ONCE AGAIN.

AS HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY THE CASE LATELY, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY (MID 50S-LOWER 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
440 AM UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE REST
OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD, WITHIN A BLOCKY, ALTHOUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE REGIME.

DUE TO PROXIMITY OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT-WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
JUST MENTIONED UPPER LOW, AND ALSO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF
INSTABILITY, THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BOTH
WED. AND THU. AFTERNOONS. OUTSIDE OF THESE TIME FRAMES, ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN-FREE PERIODS
INTERSPERSED.

PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER, ALONG WITH COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW, SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY (DAILY HIGHS IN THE 50S-LOWER 60S). A
SMALL SILVER LINING, THOUGH, IS THAT THE LACK OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT NIGHT (DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES) WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT
LOWS UP IN THE 40S, AND PREVENT ANY FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY
FOR NICE, MAY- LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WITH RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TAF SITES.
OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO FUEL ALTERNATE MVFR CIGS
EXCEPT IFR LIKELY FOR KITH/KBGM. ALSO, EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
FOR KAVP.

CIGS LIFT FOR TUESDAY WITH SKIES GENERALLY REMAINING BROKEN TO OVERCAST.
EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO PERSIST FOR KAVP WITH KBGM LIFTING TO
MVFR. REMAINING SITES SEE VFR BY AFTERNOON.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP/PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 030602
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
202 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AIR AND SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
935 PM UPDATE...NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN MOVING INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN PA ATTM. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS NE PA PRIMARILY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO DELAY THE ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISC...
THIS AFTN/S WV IS EXITING TO THE EAST ATTM
ALLOWING A BUBBLE SFC HIPRES TO BLD INTO THE AREA. OLD TROF
LINE/FNT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE SE ZONES AND MAY FOCUS A FEW
SHWRS OVER THAT AREA THRU THE NGT. NOTHING STRONG ENUF TO DRY OUT
THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INV SO XPCT CLDS...DRIZZLE...AND
PTCHY FOG TO CONT OVRNGT.

LATE TNGT...YET ANOTHER WV RUNS UP THE BNDRY AND SHD INCRS THE
CVRG OF SHWRS OVER THE SERN ZONES AFT MIDN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SW FLOW CONTS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH A LRG UPR TROF DIGGING OVER
THE CNTRL LAKES. THIS WILL CONT THE UNSETTLED WX AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NEWRD ACROSS THE AREA. OLD FNTL BBNDRY DRIFTS SLOWLY TO
THE SE AND SHD BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER CONV BASED PCPN WITH A
DEEP SWLY ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE OPEN GULF.

OVER THE FCST AREA...FRCG IS WEAKER BUT PLENTY OF AVBL MOISTURE
UNDER THE UPR LOW WHICH PROVIDED INSTABILITY WITH IT/S COLD POOL.
SO...XPCT SCT SHWRS TO CONT THRU THE PD WITH NO STRONG SFC OR UPR
FEATURES TO TRIGGER ENHANCED PD OF PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY
FOR NICE, MAY- LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WITH RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TAF SITES.
OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO FUEL ALTERNATE MVFR CIGS
EXCEPT IFR LIKELY FOR KITH/KBGM. ALSO, EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
FOR KAVP.

CIGS LIFT FOR TUESDAY WITH SKIES GENERALLY REMAINING BROKEN TO OVERCAST.
EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO PERSIST FOR KAVP WITH KBGM LIFTING TO
MVFR. REMAINING SITES SEE VFR BY AFTERNOON.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DJP/PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 030602
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
202 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AIR AND SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
935 PM UPDATE...NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN MOVING INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN PA ATTM. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS NE PA PRIMARILY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO DELAY THE ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISC...
THIS AFTN/S WV IS EXITING TO THE EAST ATTM
ALLOWING A BUBBLE SFC HIPRES TO BLD INTO THE AREA. OLD TROF
LINE/FNT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE SE ZONES AND MAY FOCUS A FEW
SHWRS OVER THAT AREA THRU THE NGT. NOTHING STRONG ENUF TO DRY OUT
THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INV SO XPCT CLDS...DRIZZLE...AND
PTCHY FOG TO CONT OVRNGT.

LATE TNGT...YET ANOTHER WV RUNS UP THE BNDRY AND SHD INCRS THE
CVRG OF SHWRS OVER THE SERN ZONES AFT MIDN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SW FLOW CONTS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH A LRG UPR TROF DIGGING OVER
THE CNTRL LAKES. THIS WILL CONT THE UNSETTLED WX AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NEWRD ACROSS THE AREA. OLD FNTL BBNDRY DRIFTS SLOWLY TO
THE SE AND SHD BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER CONV BASED PCPN WITH A
DEEP SWLY ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE OPEN GULF.

OVER THE FCST AREA...FRCG IS WEAKER BUT PLENTY OF AVBL MOISTURE
UNDER THE UPR LOW WHICH PROVIDED INSTABILITY WITH IT/S COLD POOL.
SO...XPCT SCT SHWRS TO CONT THRU THE PD WITH NO STRONG SFC OR UPR
FEATURES TO TRIGGER ENHANCED PD OF PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY
FOR NICE, MAY- LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WITH RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TAF SITES.
OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO FUEL ALTERNATE MVFR CIGS
EXCEPT IFR LIKELY FOR KITH/KBGM. ALSO, EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
FOR KAVP.

CIGS LIFT FOR TUESDAY WITH SKIES GENERALLY REMAINING BROKEN TO OVERCAST.
EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO PERSIST FOR KAVP WITH KBGM LIFTING TO
MVFR. REMAINING SITES SEE VFR BY AFTERNOON.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DJP/PCF
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 030531
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
131 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AIR AND SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
935 PM UPDATE...NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN MOVING INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN PA ATTM. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS NE PA PRIMARILY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO DELAY THE ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISC...
THIS AFTN/S WV IS EXITING TO THE EAST ATTM
ALLOWING A BUBBLE SFC HIPRES TO BLD INTO THE AREA. OLD TROF
LINE/FNT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE SE ZONES AND MAY FOCUS A FEW
SHWRS OVER THAT AREA THRU THE NGT. NOTHING STRONG ENUF TO DRY OUT
THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INV SO XPCT CLDS...DRIZZLE...AND
PTCHY FOG TO CONT OVRNGT.

LATE TNGT...YET ANOTHER WV RUNS UP THE BNDRY AND SHD INCRS THE
CVRG OF SHWRS OVER THE SERN ZONES AFT MIDN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SW FLOW CONTS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH A LRG UPR TROF DIGGING OVER
THE CNTRL LAKES. THIS WILL CONT THE UNSETTLED WX AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NEWRD ACROSS THE AREA. OLD FNTL BBNDRY DRIFTS SLOWLY TO
THE SE AND SHD BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER CONV BASED PCPN WITH A
DEEP SWLY ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE OPEN GULF.

OVER THE FCST AREA...FRCG IS WEAKER BUT PLENTY OF AVBL MOISTURE
UNDER THE UPR LOW WHICH PROVIDED INSTABILITY WITH IT/S COLD POOL.
SO...XPCT SCT SHWRS TO CONT THRU THE PD WITH NO STRONG SFC OR UPR
FEATURES TO TRIGGER ENHANCED PD OF PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
105 PM UPDATE...

MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY FOR NICE, MAY-
LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WITH RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TAF SITES.
OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO FUEL ALTERNATE MVFR CIGS
EXCEPT IFR LIKELY FOR KITH/KBGM. ALSO, EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
FOR KAVP.

CIGS LIFT FOR TUESDAY WITH SKIES GENERALLY REMAINING BROKEN TO OVERCAST.
EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO PERSIST FOR KAVP WITH KBGM LIFTING TO
MVFR. REMAINING SITES SEE VFR BY AFTERNOON.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 030142
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
942 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AIR AND SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
935 PM UPDATE...NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN MOVING INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN PA ATTM. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS NE PA PRIMARILY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO DELAY THE ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISC...
THIS AFTN/S WV IS EXITING TO THE EAST ATTM
ALLOWING A BUBBLE SFC HIPRES TO BLD INTO THE AREA. OLD TROF
LINE/FNT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE SE ZONES AND MAY FOCUS A FEW
SHWRS OVER THAT AREA THRU THE NGT. NOTHING STRONG ENUF TO DRY OUT
THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INV SO XPCT CLDS...DRIZZLE...AND
PTCHY FOG TO CONT OVRNGT.

LATE TNGT...YET ANOTHER WV RUNS UP THE BNDRY AND SHD INCRS THE
CVRG OF SHWRS OVER THE SERN ZONES AFT MIDN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SW FLOW CONTS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH A LRG UPR TROF DIGGING OVER
THE CNTRL LAKES. THIS WILL CONT THE UNSETTLED WX AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NEWRD ACROSS THE AREA. OLD FNTL BBNDRY DRIFTS SLOWLY TO
THE SE AND SHD BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER CONV BASED PCPN WITH A
DEEP SWLY ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE OPEN GULF.

OVER THE FCST AREA...FRCG IS WEAKER BUT PLENTY OF AVBL MOISTURE
UNDER THE UPR LOW WHICH PROVIDED INSTABILITY WITH IT/S COLD POOL.
SO...XPCT SCT SHWRS TO CONT THRU THE PD WITH NO STRONG SFC OR UPR
FEATURES TO TRIGGER ENHANCED PD OF PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
105 PM UPDATE...

MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY FOR NICE, MAY-
LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 900 FEET ARE FORECAST AT ITH AND
BGM OVERNIGHT, WITH BOTH SITES EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT TO VFR
BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z ON TUESDAY.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLIDE INTO AVP AROUND 5Z, THEN TAPER OFF MID-
MORNING, POSSIBLY CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...IMPROVING TO VFR.

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 030142
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
942 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AIR AND SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
935 PM UPDATE...NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN MOVING INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN PA ATTM. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS NE PA PRIMARILY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO DELAY THE ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISC...
THIS AFTN/S WV IS EXITING TO THE EAST ATTM
ALLOWING A BUBBLE SFC HIPRES TO BLD INTO THE AREA. OLD TROF
LINE/FNT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE SE ZONES AND MAY FOCUS A FEW
SHWRS OVER THAT AREA THRU THE NGT. NOTHING STRONG ENUF TO DRY OUT
THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INV SO XPCT CLDS...DRIZZLE...AND
PTCHY FOG TO CONT OVRNGT.

LATE TNGT...YET ANOTHER WV RUNS UP THE BNDRY AND SHD INCRS THE
CVRG OF SHWRS OVER THE SERN ZONES AFT MIDN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SW FLOW CONTS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH A LRG UPR TROF DIGGING OVER
THE CNTRL LAKES. THIS WILL CONT THE UNSETTLED WX AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NEWRD ACROSS THE AREA. OLD FNTL BBNDRY DRIFTS SLOWLY TO
THE SE AND SHD BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER CONV BASED PCPN WITH A
DEEP SWLY ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE OPEN GULF.

OVER THE FCST AREA...FRCG IS WEAKER BUT PLENTY OF AVBL MOISTURE
UNDER THE UPR LOW WHICH PROVIDED INSTABILITY WITH IT/S COLD POOL.
SO...XPCT SCT SHWRS TO CONT THRU THE PD WITH NO STRONG SFC OR UPR
FEATURES TO TRIGGER ENHANCED PD OF PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
105 PM UPDATE...

MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY FOR NICE, MAY-
LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 900 FEET ARE FORECAST AT ITH AND
BGM OVERNIGHT, WITH BOTH SITES EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT TO VFR
BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z ON TUESDAY.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLIDE INTO AVP AROUND 5Z, THEN TAPER OFF MID-
MORNING, POSSIBLY CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...IMPROVING TO VFR.

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 022246
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AIR AND SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS AFTN/S WV IS EXITING TO THE EAST ATTM ALLOWING A BUBBLE SFC
HIPRES TO BLD INTO THE AREA. OLD TROF LINE/FNT REMAINS DRAPED OVER
THE SE ZONES AND MAY FOCUS A FEW SHWRS OVER THAT AREA THRU THE
NGT. NOTHING STRONG ENUF TO DRY OUT THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH
THE INV SO XPCT CLDS...DRIZZLE...AND PTCHY FOG TO CONT OVRNGT.

LATE TNGT...YET ANOTHER WV RUNS UP THE BNDRY AND SHD INCRS THE
CVRG OF SHWRS OVER THE SERN ZONES AFT MIDN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SW FLOW CONTS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH A LRG UPR TROF DIGGING OVER
THE CNTRL LAKES. THIS WILL CONT THE UNSETTLED WX AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NEWRD ACROSS THE AREA. OLD FNTL BBNDRY DRIFTS SLOWLY TO
THE SE AND SHD BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER CONV BASED PCPN WITH A
DEEP SWLY ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE OPEN GULF.

OVER THE FCST AREA...FRCG IS WEAKER BUT PLENTY OF AVBL MOISTURE
UNDER THE UPR LOW WHICH PROVIDED INSTABILITY WITH IT/S COLD POOL.
SO...XPCT SCT SHWRS TO CONT THRU THE PD WITH NO STRONG SFC OR UPR
FEATURES TO TRIGGER ENHANCED PD OF PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
105 PM UPDATE...

MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY FOR NICE, MAY-
LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 900 FEET ARE FORECAST AT ITH AND
BGM OVERNIGHT, WITH BOTH SITES EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT TO VFR
BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z ON TUESDAY.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLIDE INTO AVP AROUND 5Z, THEN TAPER OFF MID-
MORNING, POSSIBLY CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...IMPROVING TO VFR.

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 021815
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
215 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AIR AND SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THIS AFTN/S WV IS EXITING TO THE EAST ATTM ALLOWING A BUBBLE SFC
HIPRES TO BLD INTO THE AREA. OLD TROF LINE/FNT REMAINS DRAPED OVER
THE SE ZONES AND MAY FOCUS A FEW SHWRS OVER THAT AREA THRU THE
NGT. NOTHING STRONG ENUF TO DRY OUT THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH
THE INV SO XPCT CLDS...DRIZZLE...AND PTCHY FOG TO CONT OVRNGT.

LATE TNGT...YET ANOTHER WV RUNS UP THE BNDRY AND SHD INCRS THE
CVRG OF SHWRS OVER THE SERN ZONES AFT MIDN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SW FLOW CONTS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH A LRG UPR TROF DIGGING OVER
THE CNTRL LAKES. THIS WILL CONT THE UNSETTLED WX AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NEWRD ACROSS THE AREA. OLD FNTL BBNDRY DRIFTS SLOWLY TO
THE SE AND SHD BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER CONV BASED PCPN WITH A
DEEP SWLY ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE OPEN GULF.

OVER THE FCST AREA...FRCG IS WEAKER BUT PLENTY OF AVBL MOISTURE
UNDER THE UPR LOW WHICH PROVIDED INSTABILITY WITH IT/S COLD POOL.
SO...XPCT SCT SHWRS TO CONT THRU THE PD WITH NO STRONG SFC OR UPR
FEATURES TO TRIGGER ENHANCED PD OF PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
105 PM UPDATE...

MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY FOR NICE, MAY-
LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AS FORECAST, WITH SPOTTY
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS HANGING BACK OVER NY AND PA. AS OFTEN
OCCURS, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LOWERING BEHIND THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DUE TO THE LOSS OF ATMOSPHERIC MIXING.

AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS FORECAST AT ITH AND BGM,
WITH BOTH SITES EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT TO VFR BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z
ON TUESDAY.

TEMPO IFR IS FORECAST FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AT SYR AND
RME.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...IMPROVING TO VFR.

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 021707
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
107 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES SHOWERY
THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...HEAVY RAIN NOW LFTG THRU THE XTRM NRN FCST AREA
WITH ALL LTNG STRIKES NOW EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS
TO REFLECT THE CRNT SPEED OF THE PCPN AND REMOVE THE THREAT OF
TRW. ALSO HAVE LWRD THE POPS OVER THE WEST AND ESP THE SOUTH AS
THE MESO MODELS HAVE LTL IN THE WAY OF OFTN PCPN...ESP IN THE
SOUTH. PRVS DISC BLO.


625 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS OF IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING...I WENT AHEAD AND
EXPANDED COVERAGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...TO ACCOMPANY THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS.
ALSO...INCREASED AMOUNT OF HIGHER ELEVATION FOG. OTHERWISE
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 AM...SOLID LOW OVERCAST...AND PATCHY DRIZZLE...HAVE BEEN THE
THEMES OVERNIGHT. MOIST SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALSO
YIELDED AREAS OF FOG IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS. QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY CAN BE FOUND IN HAZLETON AS
WELL AS MOUNT POCONO. ACTUAL RAIN HAS BEEN HARD TO FIND...BUT THAT
WILL SOON CHANGE.

SURFACE TROUGH...STRONG SHORTWAVE...AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF
JET ALOFT ARE ALL COMBINING THIS MORNING TO BRING A QUICK BATCH
OF MODERATE RAINFALL FOR THE WHOLE REGION...THOUGH LINGERING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. MODELS INDICATE THAT
SHOWALTER INDICES ALSO GO SLIGHTLY SUBZERO THIS MORNING...MAINLY
CENTRAL TWIN TIERS TO FINGER LAKES AREAS. AS THIS SYSTEM UPSTREAM
HAS INDEED YIELDED OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDER...I HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN CENTRAL TWIN TIERS-FINGER LAKES. A
FEW TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED...HEAVIEST IN CENTRAL NEW YORK WHERE SOME SPOTS COULD
APPROACH A HALF INCH. THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY
BACK SOME SHOWERS INTO THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SMALLER CHANCES FURTHER NORTHWEST IN PLACES SUCH AS
TOWANDA-BINGHAMTON-ONEONTA...AND PROBABLY NONE AS FAR NORTH AS
THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY LOWER TO MID
40S...THOUGH SOME UPPER 40S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WYOMING AND
DELAWARE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
MULTIPLE WEAK RIPPLES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL POSE
AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...PARTICULARLY
FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY WHICH WILL PROBABLY GET NOTHING AT
ALL. HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 50S-NEAR 60 TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS OF
MAINLY MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE AREAWIDE AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
PRODUCES A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH THEN
APPROACHES OUR REGION. THOUGH NOT MUCH OVERALL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...IT WILL BE DAMP CLOUDY COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
105 PM UPDATE...

MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY FOR NICE, MAY-
LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AS FORECAST, WITH SPOTTY
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS HANGING BACK OVER NY AND PA. AS OFTEN
OCCURS, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LOWERING BEHIND THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DUE TO THE LOSS OF ATMOSPHERIC MIXING.

AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS FORECAST AT ITH AND BGM,
WITH BOTH SITES EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT TO VFR BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z
ON TUESDAY.

TEMPO IFR IS FORECAST FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AT SYR AND
RME.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...IMPROVING TO VFR.

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP





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