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000
FXUS61 KBGM 021920
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOME OF THOSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG
WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION. TODAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH.
DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
MOISTURE IS PRESENT... EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY.
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON AND FALL INTO
THE 60S TONIGHT.

THE QUIET WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG... AS A STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE BROAD LOW THAT HAS
BEEN NORTH OF US THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE
ATTENDANT WITH A AND A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MID MONDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL
RANGE FROM 30-40 KNOTS... SBCAPE WILL BE ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG... LOW
LVL LAPSE RATE WILL BE AROUND 8 C/KM... AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE AROUND 6 C/KM. THE MENTIONED VARIABLES ABOVE... COMBINED
WITH A DECENT UPPR LVL JET THAT WILL MOVE OVR THE REGION... MAY
JUST BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. ATTM WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION AND MAKE UPDATES AS THE EVENT MOVES
CLOSER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STORMS MONDAY EVENING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUNSHINE WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN END
OF HUDSON BAY AND CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED OVER THE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER NY STATE WHERE THE AIR WILL BE COLDEST
ALOFT. MID-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 35
TO 40 K KTS BUT MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL
FORCING AND ANY SEVERE RISK LOOKS LOW. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
BE NEARLY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH CLEAR COOL CONDITIONS AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ON THE NEXT SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS INDICATING A CHANCE
OF RAIN THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE ECMWF WERE KEEPING THIS SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH
A SECOND SYSTEM BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... HOWEVER
THE 12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM
TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS IN BRINGING SOME RAIN AT LEAST AS FAR
NORTH AS NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY LATE THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE
IS THAT THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A CHC OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS... THEN WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

A VFR CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM TSRA.

WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/PCF
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 021920
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOME OF THOSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG
WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION. TODAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH.
DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
MOISTURE IS PRESENT... EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY.
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON AND FALL INTO
THE 60S TONIGHT.

THE QUIET WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG... AS A STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE BROAD LOW THAT HAS
BEEN NORTH OF US THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE
ATTENDANT WITH A AND A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MID MONDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL
RANGE FROM 30-40 KNOTS... SBCAPE WILL BE ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG... LOW
LVL LAPSE RATE WILL BE AROUND 8 C/KM... AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE AROUND 6 C/KM. THE MENTIONED VARIABLES ABOVE... COMBINED
WITH A DECENT UPPR LVL JET THAT WILL MOVE OVR THE REGION... MAY
JUST BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. ATTM WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION AND MAKE UPDATES AS THE EVENT MOVES
CLOSER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STORMS MONDAY EVENING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUNSHINE WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN END
OF HUDSON BAY AND CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED OVER THE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER NY STATE WHERE THE AIR WILL BE COLDEST
ALOFT. MID-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 35
TO 40 K KTS BUT MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL
FORCING AND ANY SEVERE RISK LOOKS LOW. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
BE NEARLY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH CLEAR COOL CONDITIONS AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ON THE NEXT SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS INDICATING A CHANCE
OF RAIN THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE ECMWF WERE KEEPING THIS SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH
A SECOND SYSTEM BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... HOWEVER
THE 12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM
TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS IN BRINGING SOME RAIN AT LEAST AS FAR
NORTH AS NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY LATE THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE
IS THAT THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A CHC OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS... THEN WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

A VFR CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM TSRA.

WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/PCF
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 021756
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOME OF THOSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG
WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION. TODAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH.
DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
MOISTURE IS PRESENT... EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY.
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON AND FALL INTO
THE 60S TONIGHT.

THE QUIET WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG... AS A STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE BROAD LOW THAT HAS
BEEN NORTH OF US THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE
ATTENDANT WITH A AND A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MID MONDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL
RANGE FROM 30-40 KNOTS... SBCAPE WILL BE ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG... LOW
LVL LAPSE RATE WILL BE AROUND 8 C/KM... AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE AROUND 6 C/KM. THE MENTIONED VARIABLES ABOVE... COMBINED
WITH A DECENT UPPR LVL JET THAT WILL MOVE OVR THE REGION... MAY
JUST BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. ATTM WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION AND MAKE UPDATES AS THE EVENT MOVES
CLOSER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
310 AM UPDATE...

ONCE THE STORMS EXIT MONDAY EVENING...QUIET MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WAVE /AND POSSIBLE SECONDARY
SURFACE FRONT/ WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHERN THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER
LOW...FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES IN CENTRAL NY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
BE DOWN 4-7 DEGREES...TO MAINLY MID 70S-NEAR 80 RANGE. WITH THE
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL
HEATING...WE SHOULD LOSE IT QUICKLY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP IT COOL
BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY PM
WITH A FEW SHOWERS. WED DRY THEN A SFC LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE MUCH MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
BRUSHING SRN PA. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL
BE BUT THINK IT SHOULD MAKE IT ONLY TO NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY
NY. FRIDAY DRY THEN ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE TROF WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE
BUT NORMAL FOR DAY 7 WITH GFS FASTER THAN EURO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS... THEN WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

A VFR CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM TSRA.

WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/PCF
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 021756
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOME OF THOSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG
WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION. TODAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH.
DIURNAL CU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
MOISTURE IS PRESENT... EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY.
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON AND FALL INTO
THE 60S TONIGHT.

THE QUIET WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG... AS A STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE BROAD LOW THAT HAS
BEEN NORTH OF US THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE
ATTENDANT WITH A AND A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MID MONDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL
RANGE FROM 30-40 KNOTS... SBCAPE WILL BE ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG... LOW
LVL LAPSE RATE WILL BE AROUND 8 C/KM... AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE AROUND 6 C/KM. THE MENTIONED VARIABLES ABOVE... COMBINED
WITH A DECENT UPPR LVL JET THAT WILL MOVE OVR THE REGION... MAY
JUST BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. ATTM WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION AND MAKE UPDATES AS THE EVENT MOVES
CLOSER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
310 AM UPDATE...

ONCE THE STORMS EXIT MONDAY EVENING...QUIET MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WAVE /AND POSSIBLE SECONDARY
SURFACE FRONT/ WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHERN THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER
LOW...FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES IN CENTRAL NY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
BE DOWN 4-7 DEGREES...TO MAINLY MID 70S-NEAR 80 RANGE. WITH THE
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL
HEATING...WE SHOULD LOSE IT QUICKLY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP IT COOL
BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY PM
WITH A FEW SHOWERS. WED DRY THEN A SFC LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE MUCH MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
BRUSHING SRN PA. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL
BE BUT THINK IT SHOULD MAKE IT ONLY TO NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY
NY. FRIDAY DRY THEN ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE TROF WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE
BUT NORMAL FOR DAY 7 WITH GFS FASTER THAN EURO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS... THEN WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

A VFR CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM TSRA.

WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/PCF
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 021039
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
639 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOME OF THOSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG
WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0630 AM UPDATE...ADDED PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING BASED ON OBS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.

315 AM UPDATE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE NEAR TERM. SW
FLOW DEVELOPS FOR TODAY AS RIDGE FLATTENS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 RANGE WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

MILD SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TONIGHT
RESULTING IN A MILDER NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS CREEPING UP SLIGHTLY
AS WELL. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE CATSKILLS TO
THE UPPER 60S OVER THE LAKE PLAIN. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALSO START
TO STREAM IN BUT MOST LIKELY SHOWERS AND STORMS STAY TO THE NORTH
AND WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE DO INDICATE SLIGHT
CHANCE / CHANCE POPS ONLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES NORTHWARD BY THE
LATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
310 AM UPDATE...
ACTIVE DAY APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE FOR MONDAY...WITH FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED OUR WHOLE REGION INTO A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE...WHICH IS DESIGNATED FOR WHEN SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

THIS MAY TURN OUT TO BE ONE OUR MORE ORGANIZED EVENTS OF THE
SEASON. COMPARED TO OTHER ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE EVENTS THIS
YEAR...IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN
ADDITION TO JET SUPPORT...THE MAIN CHARACTERISTIC OF THIS SET UP
IS BELT OF 40-45 KT DEEP LAYER WINDS /2-6 KM LAYER/ WHICH FOR
AUGUST IS NOTEWORTHY. CAPES WILL BE MODEST...UPPER HUNDREDS TO
PERHAPS AROUND A THOUSAND J/KG...YET GIVEN SUPPORT AND SHEAR IT
SHOULD BE MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
ORGANIZATION. IF ANYTHING...TIMING IN LATEST MODEL SUITE HAS
BECOME EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR HARNESSING DIURNAL
HEATING...FOCUSED ESPECIALLY ON THE 4PM-10PM PERIOD.

HIGHS MAINLY 80S AREAWIDE...EVEN SOME UPPER 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S. WITH WELL MARKED WAVE RUNNING INTO THIS WARM AND MODESTLY
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS /ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE UPPER LOW
DROPPING THROUGH ONTARIO/...GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS...SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR PROBABLE. IN ADDITION TO 0-3KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF GOOD STRUCTURE TO THE
STORMS...THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS TO
PROMOTE MIXING DOWN OF STRONG WINDS. OUR LOCAL ANALOG
TOOL...COMPARING FORECAST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS TO PAST
EVENTS...RETURNS SEVERAL CASES WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A
COUPLE ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ONCE THE STORMS EXIT MONDAY EVENING...QUIET MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WAVE /AND POSSIBLE SECONDARY
SURFACE FRONT/ WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHERN THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER
LOW...FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES IN CENTRAL NY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
BE DOWN 4-7 DEGREES...TO MAINLY MID 70S-NEAR 80 RANGE. WITH THE
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL
HEATING...WE SHOULD LOSE IT QUICKLY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP IT COOL
BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY PM
WITH A FEW SHOWERS. WED DRY THEN A SFC LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE MUCH MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
BRUSHING SRN PA. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL
BE BUT THINK IT SHOULD MAKE IT ONLY TO NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY
NY. FRIDAY DRY THEN ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE TROF WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE
BUT NORMAL FOR DAY 7 WITH GFS FASTER THAN EURO.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY EARLY MORNING MIST OR FOG AT KELM WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF WITH
TODAY OTHERWISE FEATURING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH VFR
FOR ALL SITES. W/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN TONIGHT BUT BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY FOG OR MIST TO FORM SO
EXPECTING CONTINUING VFR.

.OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS DUE TO MAINLY AFTN TSTMS PSBL.

WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 021039
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
639 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOME OF THOSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG
WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0630 AM UPDATE...ADDED PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING BASED ON OBS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.

315 AM UPDATE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE NEAR TERM. SW
FLOW DEVELOPS FOR TODAY AS RIDGE FLATTENS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 RANGE WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

MILD SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TONIGHT
RESULTING IN A MILDER NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS CREEPING UP SLIGHTLY
AS WELL. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE CATSKILLS TO
THE UPPER 60S OVER THE LAKE PLAIN. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALSO START
TO STREAM IN BUT MOST LIKELY SHOWERS AND STORMS STAY TO THE NORTH
AND WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE DO INDICATE SLIGHT
CHANCE / CHANCE POPS ONLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES NORTHWARD BY THE
LATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
310 AM UPDATE...
ACTIVE DAY APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE FOR MONDAY...WITH FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED OUR WHOLE REGION INTO A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE...WHICH IS DESIGNATED FOR WHEN SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

THIS MAY TURN OUT TO BE ONE OUR MORE ORGANIZED EVENTS OF THE
SEASON. COMPARED TO OTHER ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE EVENTS THIS
YEAR...IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN
ADDITION TO JET SUPPORT...THE MAIN CHARACTERISTIC OF THIS SET UP
IS BELT OF 40-45 KT DEEP LAYER WINDS /2-6 KM LAYER/ WHICH FOR
AUGUST IS NOTEWORTHY. CAPES WILL BE MODEST...UPPER HUNDREDS TO
PERHAPS AROUND A THOUSAND J/KG...YET GIVEN SUPPORT AND SHEAR IT
SHOULD BE MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
ORGANIZATION. IF ANYTHING...TIMING IN LATEST MODEL SUITE HAS
BECOME EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR HARNESSING DIURNAL
HEATING...FOCUSED ESPECIALLY ON THE 4PM-10PM PERIOD.

HIGHS MAINLY 80S AREAWIDE...EVEN SOME UPPER 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S. WITH WELL MARKED WAVE RUNNING INTO THIS WARM AND MODESTLY
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS /ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE UPPER LOW
DROPPING THROUGH ONTARIO/...GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS...SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR PROBABLE. IN ADDITION TO 0-3KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF GOOD STRUCTURE TO THE
STORMS...THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS TO
PROMOTE MIXING DOWN OF STRONG WINDS. OUR LOCAL ANALOG
TOOL...COMPARING FORECAST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS TO PAST
EVENTS...RETURNS SEVERAL CASES WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A
COUPLE ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ONCE THE STORMS EXIT MONDAY EVENING...QUIET MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WAVE /AND POSSIBLE SECONDARY
SURFACE FRONT/ WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHERN THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER
LOW...FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES IN CENTRAL NY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
BE DOWN 4-7 DEGREES...TO MAINLY MID 70S-NEAR 80 RANGE. WITH THE
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL
HEATING...WE SHOULD LOSE IT QUICKLY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP IT COOL
BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY PM
WITH A FEW SHOWERS. WED DRY THEN A SFC LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE MUCH MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
BRUSHING SRN PA. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL
BE BUT THINK IT SHOULD MAKE IT ONLY TO NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY
NY. FRIDAY DRY THEN ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE TROF WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE
BUT NORMAL FOR DAY 7 WITH GFS FASTER THAN EURO.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY EARLY MORNING MIST OR FOG AT KELM WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF WITH
TODAY OTHERWISE FEATURING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH VFR
FOR ALL SITES. W/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN TONIGHT BUT BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY FOG OR MIST TO FORM SO
EXPECTING CONTINUING VFR.

.OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS DUE TO MAINLY AFTN TSTMS PSBL.

WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 020716
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
316 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOME OF THOSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG
WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE NEAR TERM. SW
FLOW DEVELOPS FOR TODAY AS RIDGE FLATTENS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
TO MOSTLYSUNNY WITH TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 RANGE WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

MILD SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TONIGHT
RESULTING IN A MILDER NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS CREEPING UP SLIGHTLY
AS WELL. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE CATSKILLS TO
THE UPPER 60S OVER THE LAKE PLAIN. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALSO START
TO STREAM IN BUT MOST LIKELY SHOWERS AND STORMS STAY TO THE NORTH
AND WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE DO INDICATE SLIGHT
CHANCE / CHANCE POPS ONLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES NORTHWARD BY THE
LATE OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
310 AM UPDATE...
ACTIVE DAY APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE FOR MONDAY...WITH FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED OUR WHOLE REGION INTO A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE...WHICH IS DESIGNATED FOR WHEN SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

THIS MAY TURN OUT TO BE ONE OUR MORE ORGANIZED EVENTS OF THE
SEASON. COMPARED TO OTHER ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE EVENTS THIS
YEAR...IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN
ADDITION TO JET SUPPORT...THE MAIN CHARACTERISTIC OF THIS SET UP
IS BELT OF 40-45 KT DEEP LAYER WINDS /2-6 KM LAYER/ WHICH FOR
AUGUST IS NOTEWORTHY. CAPES WILL BE MODEST...UPPER HUNDREDS TO
PERHAPS AROUND A THOUSAND J/KG...YET GIVEN SUPPORT AND SHEAR IT
SHOULD BE MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
ORGANIZATION. IF ANYTHING...TIMING IN LATEST MODEL SUITE HAS
BECOME EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR HARNESSING DIURNAL
HEATING...FOCUSED ESPECIALLY ON THE 4PM-10PM PERIOD.

HIGHS MAINLY 80S AREAWIDE...EVEN SOME UPPER 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S. WITH WELL MARKED WAVE RUNNING INTO THIS WARM AND MODESTLY
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS /ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE UPPER LOW
DROPPING THROUGH ONTARIO/...GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS...SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR PROBABLE. IN ADDITION TO 0-3KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF GOOD STRUCTURE TO THE
STORMS...THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS TO
PROMOTE MIXING DOWN OF STRONG WINDS. OUR LOCAL ANALOG
TOOL...COMPARING FORECAST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS TO PAST
EVENTS...RETURNS SEVERAL CASES WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A
COUPLE ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ONCE THE STORMS EXIT MONDAY EVENING...QUIET MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WAVE /AND POSSIBLE SECONDARY
SURFACE FRONT/ WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHERN THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER
LOW...FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES IN CENTRAL NY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
BE DOWN 4-7 DEGREES...TO MAINLY MID 70S-NEAR 80 RANGE. WITH THE
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL
HEATING...WE SHOULD LOSE IT QUICKLY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP IT COOL
BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY PM
WITH A FEW SHOWERS. WED DRY THEN A SFC LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE MUCH MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
BRUSHING SRN PA. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL
BE BUT THINK IT SHOULD MAKE IT ONLY TO NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY
NY. FRIDAY DRY THEN ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE TROF WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE
BUT NORMAL FOR DAY 7 WITH GFS FASTER THAN EURO.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS KELM WHERE WE INDICATE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISBYS NEAR DAWN BUT THICKER FOG AND
RESTRICTIONS TO IFR SEEM UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH VFR
PREVAILING FOR ALL SITES. W/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS DUE TO MAINLY AFTN TSTMS PSBL.

WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 020712
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
312 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOME OF THOSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG
WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT. IN
THE SRN THIRD MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA AND DIE BY AROUND 10 PM. SHOWERS NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE FINGER LAKES. SKIES CLEAR
ALONG THE NYPA BORDER WHICH SHOULD EXPAND TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOOK
GOOD. FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT INTO GRIDS
LATE TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES ARE SEEN IN THIS FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SUNDAY... THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY DRY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE RATHER WEAK RANGING FROM AROUND 5-6 DEGREES C PER KM. THE
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
POCONOS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
THEN ANOTHER PARTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... MAINLY
LOWER TO MID 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY WITH A CHC FAR NW LATE. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MEAN WARMER LOW
TEMPS SUN NGT THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
310 AM UPDATE...
ACTIVE DAY APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE FOR MONDAY...WITH FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED OUR WHOLE REGION INTO A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE...WHICH IS DESIGNATED FOR WHEN SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

THIS MAY TURN OUT TO BE ONE OUR MORE ORGANIZED EVENTS OF THE
SEASON. COMPARED TO OTHER ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE EVENTS THIS
YEAR...IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN
ADDITION TO JET SUPPORT...THE MAIN CHARACTERISTIC OF THIS SET UP
IS BELT OF 40-45 KT DEEP LAYER WINDS /2-6 KM LAYER/ WHICH FOR
AUGUST IS NOTEWORTHY. CAPES WILL BE MODEST...UPPER HUNDREDS TO
PERHAPS AROUND A THOUSAND J/KG...YET GIVEN SUPPORT AND SHEAR IT
SHOULD BE MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
ORGANIZATION. IF ANYTHING...TIMING IN LATEST MODEL SUITE HAS
BECOME EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR HARNESSING DIURNAL
HEATING...FOCUSED ESPECIALLY ON THE 4PM-10PM PERIOD.

HIGHS MAINLY 80S AREAWIDE...EVEN SOME UPPER 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S. WITH WELL MARKED WAVE RUNNING INTO THIS WARM AND MODESTLY
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS /ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE UPPER LOW
DROPPING THROUGH ONTARIO/...GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS...SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR PROBABLE. IN ADDITION TO 0-3KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF GOOD STRUCTURE TO THE
STORMS...THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS TO
PROMOTE MIXING DOWN OF STRONG WINDS. OUR LOCAL ANALOG
TOOL...COMPARING FORECAST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS TO PAST
EVENTS...RETURNS SEVERAL CASES WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A
COUPLE ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ONCE THE STORMS EXIT MONDAY EVENING...QUIET MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WAVE /AND POSSIBLE SECONDARY
SURFACE FRONT/ WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHERN THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER
LOW...FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES IN CENTRAL NY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
BE DOWN 4-7 DEGREES...TO MAINLY MID 70S-NEAR 80 RANGE. WITH THE
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL
HEATING...WE SHOULD LOSE IT QUICKLY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP IT COOL
BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY PM
WITH A FEW SHOWERS. WED DRY THEN A SFC LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE MUCH MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
BRUSHING SRN PA. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL
BE BUT THINK IT SHOULD MAKE IT ONLY TO NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY
NY. FRIDAY DRY THEN ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE TROF WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE
BUT NORMAL FOR DAY 7 WITH GFS FASTER THAN EURO.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS KELM WHERE WE INDICATE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISBYS NEAR DAWN BUT THICKER FOG AND
RESTRICTIONS TO IFR SEEM UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH VFR
PREVAILING FOR ALL SITES. W/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS DUE TO MAINLY AFTN TSTMS PSBL.

WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 020530
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
130 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT. IN
THE SRN THIRD MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA AND DIE BY AROUND 10 PM. SHOWERS NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE FINGER LAKES. SKIES CLEAR
ALONG THE NYPA BORDER WHICH SHOULD EXPAND TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOOK
GOOD. FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT INTO GRIDS
LATE TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES ARE SEEN IN THIS FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SUNDAY... THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY DRY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE RATHER WEAK RANGING FROM AROUND 5-6 DEGREES C PER KM. THE
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
POCONOS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
THEN ANOTHER PARTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... MAINLY
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY WITH A CHC FAR NW LATE. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MEAN WARMER LOW
TEMPS SUN NGT THAN TONIGHT.

MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE DECENT
LIFT AND SHEAR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. MID LAYERS NOT SATURATED BUT
ENOUGH TO HINDER HAIL SIZE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW GOOD WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY. SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING BUT MAIN SHOW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THIS IS GREAT TIMING FOR MAX HEATING. HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW
AND MID 80S. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER COULD BE WARMER FOR AVP AND MSV.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS AND WINDS TO
OUR NORTH AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH. DEEP LIFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL JET IN VICINITY AND LOW LEVEL HEATING CAUSING
INSTABILITY. LL JET COULD BE 40 KTS. VERY GOOD FOR EARLY AUGUST
BUT NOT UNUSUAL WITH YET ANOTHER NE US UL TROF. SOUNDINGS SHOW 1K
CAPE COMBINED WITH 40 KT 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.

MONDAY NIGHT SLOW DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SE THROUGH THE CWA. TUESDAY MORE SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP IT COOL BUT MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY PM WITH A
FEW SHOWERS. WED DRY THEN A SFC LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY
THE MODELS HAVE MUCH MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK BRUSHING SRN
PA. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL BE BUT THINK
IT SHOULD MAKE IT ONLY TO NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FRIDAY DRY
THEN ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE TROF WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE BUT NORMAL FOR
DAY 7 WITH GFS FASTER THAN EURO.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS KELM WHERE WE INDICATE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISBYS NEAR DAWN BUT THICKER FOG AND
RESTRICTIONS TO IFR SEEM UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH VFR
PREVAILING FOR ALL SITES. W/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS DUE TO MAINLY AFTN TSTMS PSBL.

WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE/TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 020530
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
130 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT. IN
THE SRN THIRD MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA AND DIE BY AROUND 10 PM. SHOWERS NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE FINGER LAKES. SKIES CLEAR
ALONG THE NYPA BORDER WHICH SHOULD EXPAND TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOOK
GOOD. FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT INTO GRIDS
LATE TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES ARE SEEN IN THIS FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SUNDAY... THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY DRY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE RATHER WEAK RANGING FROM AROUND 5-6 DEGREES C PER KM. THE
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
POCONOS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
THEN ANOTHER PARTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... MAINLY
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY WITH A CHC FAR NW LATE. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MEAN WARMER LOW
TEMPS SUN NGT THAN TONIGHT.

MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE DECENT
LIFT AND SHEAR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. MID LAYERS NOT SATURATED BUT
ENOUGH TO HINDER HAIL SIZE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW GOOD WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY. SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING BUT MAIN SHOW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THIS IS GREAT TIMING FOR MAX HEATING. HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW
AND MID 80S. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER COULD BE WARMER FOR AVP AND MSV.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS AND WINDS TO
OUR NORTH AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH. DEEP LIFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL JET IN VICINITY AND LOW LEVEL HEATING CAUSING
INSTABILITY. LL JET COULD BE 40 KTS. VERY GOOD FOR EARLY AUGUST
BUT NOT UNUSUAL WITH YET ANOTHER NE US UL TROF. SOUNDINGS SHOW 1K
CAPE COMBINED WITH 40 KT 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.

MONDAY NIGHT SLOW DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SE THROUGH THE CWA. TUESDAY MORE SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP IT COOL BUT MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY PM WITH A
FEW SHOWERS. WED DRY THEN A SFC LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY
THE MODELS HAVE MUCH MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK BRUSHING SRN
PA. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL BE BUT THINK
IT SHOULD MAKE IT ONLY TO NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FRIDAY DRY
THEN ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE TROF WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE BUT NORMAL FOR
DAY 7 WITH GFS FASTER THAN EURO.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS KELM WHERE WE INDICATE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISBYS NEAR DAWN BUT THICKER FOG AND
RESTRICTIONS TO IFR SEEM UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH VFR
PREVAILING FOR ALL SITES. W/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS DUE TO MAINLY AFTN TSTMS PSBL.

WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE/TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 020530
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
130 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT. IN
THE SRN THIRD MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA AND DIE BY AROUND 10 PM. SHOWERS NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE FINGER LAKES. SKIES CLEAR
ALONG THE NYPA BORDER WHICH SHOULD EXPAND TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOOK
GOOD. FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT INTO GRIDS
LATE TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES ARE SEEN IN THIS FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SUNDAY... THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY DRY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE RATHER WEAK RANGING FROM AROUND 5-6 DEGREES C PER KM. THE
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
POCONOS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
THEN ANOTHER PARTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... MAINLY
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY WITH A CHC FAR NW LATE. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MEAN WARMER LOW
TEMPS SUN NGT THAN TONIGHT.

MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE DECENT
LIFT AND SHEAR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. MID LAYERS NOT SATURATED BUT
ENOUGH TO HINDER HAIL SIZE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW GOOD WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY. SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING BUT MAIN SHOW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THIS IS GREAT TIMING FOR MAX HEATING. HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW
AND MID 80S. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER COULD BE WARMER FOR AVP AND MSV.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS AND WINDS TO
OUR NORTH AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH. DEEP LIFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL JET IN VICINITY AND LOW LEVEL HEATING CAUSING
INSTABILITY. LL JET COULD BE 40 KTS. VERY GOOD FOR EARLY AUGUST
BUT NOT UNUSUAL WITH YET ANOTHER NE US UL TROF. SOUNDINGS SHOW 1K
CAPE COMBINED WITH 40 KT 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.

MONDAY NIGHT SLOW DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SE THROUGH THE CWA. TUESDAY MORE SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP IT COOL BUT MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY PM WITH A
FEW SHOWERS. WED DRY THEN A SFC LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY
THE MODELS HAVE MUCH MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK BRUSHING SRN
PA. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL BE BUT THINK
IT SHOULD MAKE IT ONLY TO NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FRIDAY DRY
THEN ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE TROF WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE BUT NORMAL FOR
DAY 7 WITH GFS FASTER THAN EURO.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS KELM WHERE WE INDICATE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISBYS NEAR DAWN BUT THICKER FOG AND
RESTRICTIONS TO IFR SEEM UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH VFR
PREVAILING FOR ALL SITES. W/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS DUE TO MAINLY AFTN TSTMS PSBL.

WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE/TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 020530
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
130 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT. IN
THE SRN THIRD MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA AND DIE BY AROUND 10 PM. SHOWERS NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE FINGER LAKES. SKIES CLEAR
ALONG THE NYPA BORDER WHICH SHOULD EXPAND TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOOK
GOOD. FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT INTO GRIDS
LATE TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES ARE SEEN IN THIS FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SUNDAY... THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY DRY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE RATHER WEAK RANGING FROM AROUND 5-6 DEGREES C PER KM. THE
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
POCONOS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
THEN ANOTHER PARTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... MAINLY
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY WITH A CHC FAR NW LATE. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MEAN WARMER LOW
TEMPS SUN NGT THAN TONIGHT.

MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE DECENT
LIFT AND SHEAR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. MID LAYERS NOT SATURATED BUT
ENOUGH TO HINDER HAIL SIZE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW GOOD WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY. SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING BUT MAIN SHOW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THIS IS GREAT TIMING FOR MAX HEATING. HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW
AND MID 80S. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER COULD BE WARMER FOR AVP AND MSV.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS AND WINDS TO
OUR NORTH AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH. DEEP LIFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL JET IN VICINITY AND LOW LEVEL HEATING CAUSING
INSTABILITY. LL JET COULD BE 40 KTS. VERY GOOD FOR EARLY AUGUST
BUT NOT UNUSUAL WITH YET ANOTHER NE US UL TROF. SOUNDINGS SHOW 1K
CAPE COMBINED WITH 40 KT 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.

MONDAY NIGHT SLOW DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SE THROUGH THE CWA. TUESDAY MORE SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP IT COOL BUT MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY PM WITH A
FEW SHOWERS. WED DRY THEN A SFC LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY
THE MODELS HAVE MUCH MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK BRUSHING SRN
PA. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL BE BUT THINK
IT SHOULD MAKE IT ONLY TO NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FRIDAY DRY
THEN ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE TROF WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE BUT NORMAL FOR
DAY 7 WITH GFS FASTER THAN EURO.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS KELM WHERE WE INDICATE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISBYS NEAR DAWN BUT THICKER FOG AND
RESTRICTIONS TO IFR SEEM UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH VFR
PREVAILING FOR ALL SITES. W/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS DUE TO MAINLY AFTN TSTMS PSBL.

WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE/TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 020002
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
802 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT. IN
THE SRN THIRD MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA AND DIE BY AROUND 10 PM. SHOWERS NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE FINGER LAKES. SKIES CLEAR
ALONG THE NYPA BORDER WHICH SHOULD EXPAND TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOOK
GOOD. FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT INTO GRIDS
LATE TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES ARE SEEN IN THIS FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SUNDAY... THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY DRY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE RATHER WEAK RANGING FROM AROUND 5-6 DEGREES C PER KM. THE
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
POCONOS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
THEN ANOTHER PARTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... MAINLY
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY WITH A CHC FAR NW LATE. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MEAN WARMER LOW
TEMPS SUN NGT THAN TONIGHT.

MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE DECENT
LIFT AND SHEAR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. MID LAYERS NOT SATURATED BUT
ENOUGH TO HINDER HAIL SIZE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW GOOD WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY. SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING BUT MAIN SHOW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THIS IS GREAT TIMING FOR MAX HEATING. HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW
AND MID 80S. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER COULD BE WARMER FOR AVP AND MSV.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS AND WINDS TO
OUR NORTH AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH. DEEP LIFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL JET IN VICINITY AND LOW LEVEL HEATING CAUSING
INSTABILITY. LL JET COULD BE 40 KTS. VERY GOOD FOR EARLY AUGUST
BUT NOT UNUSUAL WITH YET ANOTHER NE US UL TROF. SOUNDINGS SHOW 1K
CAPE COMBINED WITH 40 KT 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.

MONDAY NIGHT SLOW DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SE THROUGH THE CWA. TUESDAY MORE SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP IT COOL BUT MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY PM WITH A
FEW SHOWERS. WED DRY THEN A SFC LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY
THE MODELS HAVE MUCH MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK BRUSHING SRN
PA. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL BE BUT THINK
IT SHOULD MAKE IT ONLY TO NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FRIDAY DRY
THEN ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE TROF WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE BUT NORMAL FOR
DAY 7 WITH GFS FASTER THAN EURO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

UPR WV WRKG ON HTG HAS DVLPD ISLTD LGT SHWRS AGAIN THIS EVE. WV
MVES EAST AND WITH LOSS OF HTG...XPCT SHWRS TO RAPDILY END OVRNGT.
SO...VFR CONDS CONT THRU SUNDAY. SMALL CHANCE OF FOG...BUT WITH
WIND CONG IN THE BNDRY LYR AND DEW PTS IN THE LWR 50S...LTL EFFECT
XPCTD.

.OUTLOOK...


MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS DUE TO MAINLY AFTN TSTMS PSBL.

WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE/TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM/MSE





000
FXUS61 KBGM 020002
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
802 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT. IN
THE SRN THIRD MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA AND DIE BY AROUND 10 PM. SHOWERS NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE FINGER LAKES. SKIES CLEAR
ALONG THE NYPA BORDER WHICH SHOULD EXPAND TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOOK
GOOD. FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT INTO GRIDS
LATE TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES ARE SEEN IN THIS FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SUNDAY... THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY DRY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE RATHER WEAK RANGING FROM AROUND 5-6 DEGREES C PER KM. THE
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
POCONOS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
THEN ANOTHER PARTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... MAINLY
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY WITH A CHC FAR NW LATE. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MEAN WARMER LOW
TEMPS SUN NGT THAN TONIGHT.

MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE DECENT
LIFT AND SHEAR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. MID LAYERS NOT SATURATED BUT
ENOUGH TO HINDER HAIL SIZE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW GOOD WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY. SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING BUT MAIN SHOW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THIS IS GREAT TIMING FOR MAX HEATING. HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW
AND MID 80S. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER COULD BE WARMER FOR AVP AND MSV.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS AND WINDS TO
OUR NORTH AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH. DEEP LIFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL JET IN VICINITY AND LOW LEVEL HEATING CAUSING
INSTABILITY. LL JET COULD BE 40 KTS. VERY GOOD FOR EARLY AUGUST
BUT NOT UNUSUAL WITH YET ANOTHER NE US UL TROF. SOUNDINGS SHOW 1K
CAPE COMBINED WITH 40 KT 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.

MONDAY NIGHT SLOW DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SE THROUGH THE CWA. TUESDAY MORE SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP IT COOL BUT MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY PM WITH A
FEW SHOWERS. WED DRY THEN A SFC LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY
THE MODELS HAVE MUCH MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK BRUSHING SRN
PA. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL BE BUT THINK
IT SHOULD MAKE IT ONLY TO NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FRIDAY DRY
THEN ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE TROF WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE BUT NORMAL FOR
DAY 7 WITH GFS FASTER THAN EURO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

UPR WV WRKG ON HTG HAS DVLPD ISLTD LGT SHWRS AGAIN THIS EVE. WV
MVES EAST AND WITH LOSS OF HTG...XPCT SHWRS TO RAPDILY END OVRNGT.
SO...VFR CONDS CONT THRU SUNDAY. SMALL CHANCE OF FOG...BUT WITH
WIND CONG IN THE BNDRY LYR AND DEW PTS IN THE LWR 50S...LTL EFFECT
XPCTD.

.OUTLOOK...


MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS DUE TO MAINLY AFTN TSTMS PSBL.

WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE/TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM/MSE




000
FXUS61 KBGM 012348
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
748 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT. IN
THE SRN THIRD MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA AND DIE BY AROUND 10 PM. SHOWERS NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE FINGER LAKES. SKIES CLEAR
ALONG THE NYPA BORDER WHICH SHOULD EXPAND TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOOK
GOOD. FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT INTO GRIDS
LATE TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES ARE SEEN IN THIS FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SUNDAY... THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY DRY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE RATHER WEAK RANGING FROM AROUND 5-6 DEGREES C PER KM. THE
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
POCONOS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
THEN ANOTHER PARTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... MAINLY
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY WITH A CHC FAR NW LATE. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MEAN WARMER LOW
TEMPS SUN NGT THAN TONIGHT.

MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE DECENT
LIFT AND SHEAR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. MID LAYERS NOT SATURATED BUT
ENOUGH TO HINDER HAIL SIZE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW GOOD WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY. SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING BUT MAIN SHOW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THIS IS GREAT TIMING FOR MAX HEATING. HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW
AND MID 80S. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER COULD BE WARMER FOR AVP AND MSV.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS AND WINDS TO
OUR NORTH AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH. DEEP LIFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL JET IN VICINITY AND LOW LEVEL HEATING CAUSING
INSTABILITY. LL JET COULD BE 40 KTS. VERY GOOD FOR EARLY AUGUST
BUT NOT UNUSUAL WITH YET ANOTHER NE US UL TROF. SOUNDINGS SHOW 1K
CAPE COMBINED WITH 40 KT 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.

MONDAY NIGHT SLOW DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SE THROUGH THE CWA. TUESDAY MORE SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP IT COOL BUT MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY PM WITH A
FEW SHOWERS. WED DRY THEN A SFC LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY
THE MODELS HAVE MUCH MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK BRUSHING SRN
PA. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL BE BUT THINK
IT SHOULD MAKE IT ONLY TO NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FRIDAY DRY
THEN ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE TROF WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE BUT NORMAL FOR
DAY 7 WITH GFS FASTER THAN EURO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT CU WILL COVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES FROM 5-6 KFT.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z... THEN ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AROUND 5-6
KFT. WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN SW AT AROUND 10 KTS
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE/TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MSE





000
FXUS61 KBGM 012348
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
748 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT. IN
THE SRN THIRD MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA AND DIE BY AROUND 10 PM. SHOWERS NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE FINGER LAKES. SKIES CLEAR
ALONG THE NYPA BORDER WHICH SHOULD EXPAND TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOOK
GOOD. FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT INTO GRIDS
LATE TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES ARE SEEN IN THIS FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SUNDAY... THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY DRY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE RATHER WEAK RANGING FROM AROUND 5-6 DEGREES C PER KM. THE
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
POCONOS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
THEN ANOTHER PARTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... MAINLY
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY WITH A CHC FAR NW LATE. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MEAN WARMER LOW
TEMPS SUN NGT THAN TONIGHT.

MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE DECENT
LIFT AND SHEAR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. MID LAYERS NOT SATURATED BUT
ENOUGH TO HINDER HAIL SIZE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW GOOD WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY. SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING BUT MAIN SHOW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THIS IS GREAT TIMING FOR MAX HEATING. HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW
AND MID 80S. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER COULD BE WARMER FOR AVP AND MSV.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS AND WINDS TO
OUR NORTH AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH. DEEP LIFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL JET IN VICINITY AND LOW LEVEL HEATING CAUSING
INSTABILITY. LL JET COULD BE 40 KTS. VERY GOOD FOR EARLY AUGUST
BUT NOT UNUSUAL WITH YET ANOTHER NE US UL TROF. SOUNDINGS SHOW 1K
CAPE COMBINED WITH 40 KT 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.

MONDAY NIGHT SLOW DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SE THROUGH THE CWA. TUESDAY MORE SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP IT COOL BUT MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY PM WITH A
FEW SHOWERS. WED DRY THEN A SFC LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY
THE MODELS HAVE MUCH MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK BRUSHING SRN
PA. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL BE BUT THINK
IT SHOULD MAKE IT ONLY TO NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FRIDAY DRY
THEN ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE TROF WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE BUT NORMAL FOR
DAY 7 WITH GFS FASTER THAN EURO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT CU WILL COVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES FROM 5-6 KFT.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z... THEN ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AROUND 5-6
KFT. WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN SW AT AROUND 10 KTS
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE/TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MSE




000
FXUS61 KBGM 012348
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
748 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT. IN
THE SRN THIRD MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA AND DIE BY AROUND 10 PM. SHOWERS NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE FINGER LAKES. SKIES CLEAR
ALONG THE NYPA BORDER WHICH SHOULD EXPAND TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOOK
GOOD. FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT INTO GRIDS
LATE TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES ARE SEEN IN THIS FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SUNDAY... THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY DRY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE RATHER WEAK RANGING FROM AROUND 5-6 DEGREES C PER KM. THE
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
POCONOS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
THEN ANOTHER PARTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... MAINLY
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY WITH A CHC FAR NW LATE. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MEAN WARMER LOW
TEMPS SUN NGT THAN TONIGHT.

MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE DECENT
LIFT AND SHEAR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. MID LAYERS NOT SATURATED BUT
ENOUGH TO HINDER HAIL SIZE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW GOOD WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY. SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING BUT MAIN SHOW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THIS IS GREAT TIMING FOR MAX HEATING. HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW
AND MID 80S. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER COULD BE WARMER FOR AVP AND MSV.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS AND WINDS TO
OUR NORTH AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH. DEEP LIFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL JET IN VICINITY AND LOW LEVEL HEATING CAUSING
INSTABILITY. LL JET COULD BE 40 KTS. VERY GOOD FOR EARLY AUGUST
BUT NOT UNUSUAL WITH YET ANOTHER NE US UL TROF. SOUNDINGS SHOW 1K
CAPE COMBINED WITH 40 KT 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.

MONDAY NIGHT SLOW DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SE THROUGH THE CWA. TUESDAY MORE SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP IT COOL BUT MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY PM WITH A
FEW SHOWERS. WED DRY THEN A SFC LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY
THE MODELS HAVE MUCH MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK BRUSHING SRN
PA. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL BE BUT THINK
IT SHOULD MAKE IT ONLY TO NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FRIDAY DRY
THEN ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE TROF WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE BUT NORMAL FOR
DAY 7 WITH GFS FASTER THAN EURO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT CU WILL COVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES FROM 5-6 KFT.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z... THEN ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AROUND 5-6
KFT. WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN SW AT AROUND 10 KTS
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE/TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MSE





000
FXUS61 KBGM 012348
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
748 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT. IN
THE SRN THIRD MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA AND DIE BY AROUND 10 PM. SHOWERS NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE FINGER LAKES. SKIES CLEAR
ALONG THE NYPA BORDER WHICH SHOULD EXPAND TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOOK
GOOD. FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PUT INTO GRIDS
LATE TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES ARE SEEN IN THIS FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SUNDAY... THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY DRY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE RATHER WEAK RANGING FROM AROUND 5-6 DEGREES C PER KM. THE
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
POCONOS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
THEN ANOTHER PARTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... MAINLY
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY WITH A CHC FAR NW LATE. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MEAN WARMER LOW
TEMPS SUN NGT THAN TONIGHT.

MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE DECENT
LIFT AND SHEAR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. MID LAYERS NOT SATURATED BUT
ENOUGH TO HINDER HAIL SIZE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW GOOD WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY. SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING BUT MAIN SHOW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THIS IS GREAT TIMING FOR MAX HEATING. HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW
AND MID 80S. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER COULD BE WARMER FOR AVP AND MSV.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS AND WINDS TO
OUR NORTH AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH. DEEP LIFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL JET IN VICINITY AND LOW LEVEL HEATING CAUSING
INSTABILITY. LL JET COULD BE 40 KTS. VERY GOOD FOR EARLY AUGUST
BUT NOT UNUSUAL WITH YET ANOTHER NE US UL TROF. SOUNDINGS SHOW 1K
CAPE COMBINED WITH 40 KT 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.

MONDAY NIGHT SLOW DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SE THROUGH THE CWA. TUESDAY MORE SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP IT COOL BUT MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY PM WITH A
FEW SHOWERS. WED DRY THEN A SFC LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY
THE MODELS HAVE MUCH MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK BRUSHING SRN
PA. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL BE BUT THINK
IT SHOULD MAKE IT ONLY TO NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FRIDAY DRY
THEN ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE TROF WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE BUT NORMAL FOR
DAY 7 WITH GFS FASTER THAN EURO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT CU WILL COVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES FROM 5-6 KFT.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z... THEN ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AROUND 5-6
KFT. WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN SW AT AROUND 10 KTS
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE/TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MSE




000
FXUS61 KBGM 012009
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
409 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES ARE SEEN IN THIS FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SUNDAY... THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY DRY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE RATHER WEAK RANGING FROM AROUND 5-6 DEGREES C PER KM. THE
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
POCONOS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
THEN ANOTHER PARTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... MAINLY
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY WITH A CHC FAR NW LATE. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MEAN WARMER LOW
TEMPS SUN NGT THAN TONIGHT.

MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE DECENT
LIFT AND SHEAR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. MID LAYERS NOT SATURATED BUT
ENOUGH TO HINDER HAIL SIZE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW GOOD WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY. SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING BUT MAIN SHOW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THIS IS GREAT TIMING FOR MAX HEATING. HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW
AND MID 80S. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER COULD BE WARMER FOR AVP AND MSV.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS AND WINDS TO
OUR NORTH AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH. DEEP LIFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL JET IN VICINITY AND LOW LEVEL HEATING CAUSING
INSTABILITY. LL JET COULD BE 40 KTS. VERY GOOD FOR EARLY AUGUST
BUT NOT UNUSUAL WITH YET ANOTHER NE US UL TROF. SOUNDINGS SHOW 1K
CAPE COMBINED WITH 40 KT 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.

MONDAY NIGHT SLOW DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SE THROUGH THE CWA. TUESDAY MORE SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP IT COOL BUT MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY PM WITH A
FEW SHOWERS. WED DRY THEN A SFC LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY
THE MODELS HAVE MUCH MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK BRUSHING SRN
PA. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL BE BUT THINK
IT SHOULD MAKE IT ONLY TO NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FRIDAY DRY
THEN ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE TROF WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE BUT NORMAL FOR
DAY 7 WITH GFS FASTER THAN EURO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT CU WILL COVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES FROM 5-6 KFT.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z... THEN ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AROUND 5-6
KFT. WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN SW AT AROUND 10 KTS
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MSE




000
FXUS61 KBGM 012009
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
409 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES ARE SEEN IN THIS FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SUNDAY... THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY DRY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE RATHER WEAK RANGING FROM AROUND 5-6 DEGREES C PER KM. THE
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
POCONOS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
THEN ANOTHER PARTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... MAINLY
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY WITH A CHC FAR NW LATE. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MEAN WARMER LOW
TEMPS SUN NGT THAN TONIGHT.

MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE DECENT
LIFT AND SHEAR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. MID LAYERS NOT SATURATED BUT
ENOUGH TO HINDER HAIL SIZE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW GOOD WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY. SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING BUT MAIN SHOW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THIS IS GREAT TIMING FOR MAX HEATING. HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW
AND MID 80S. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER COULD BE WARMER FOR AVP AND MSV.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS AND WINDS TO
OUR NORTH AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH. DEEP LIFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL JET IN VICINITY AND LOW LEVEL HEATING CAUSING
INSTABILITY. LL JET COULD BE 40 KTS. VERY GOOD FOR EARLY AUGUST
BUT NOT UNUSUAL WITH YET ANOTHER NE US UL TROF. SOUNDINGS SHOW 1K
CAPE COMBINED WITH 40 KT 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.

MONDAY NIGHT SLOW DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SE THROUGH THE CWA. TUESDAY MORE SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP IT COOL BUT MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY PM WITH A
FEW SHOWERS. WED DRY THEN A SFC LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY
THE MODELS HAVE MUCH MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK BRUSHING SRN
PA. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL BE BUT THINK
IT SHOULD MAKE IT ONLY TO NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FRIDAY DRY
THEN ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE TROF WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE BUT NORMAL FOR
DAY 7 WITH GFS FASTER THAN EURO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT CU WILL COVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES FROM 5-6 KFT.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z... THEN ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AROUND 5-6
KFT. WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN SW AT AROUND 10 KTS
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MSE




000
FXUS61 KBGM 012009
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
409 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES ARE SEEN IN THIS FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SUNDAY... THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY DRY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE RATHER WEAK RANGING FROM AROUND 5-6 DEGREES C PER KM. THE
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
POCONOS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
THEN ANOTHER PARTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... MAINLY
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...

SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY WITH A CHC FAR NW LATE. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MEAN WARMER LOW
TEMPS SUN NGT THAN TONIGHT.

MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE DECENT
LIFT AND SHEAR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. MID LAYERS NOT SATURATED BUT
ENOUGH TO HINDER HAIL SIZE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW GOOD WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY. SOME
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING BUT MAIN SHOW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THIS IS GREAT TIMING FOR MAX HEATING. HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW
AND MID 80S. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER COULD BE WARMER FOR AVP AND MSV.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS AND WINDS TO
OUR NORTH AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH. DEEP LIFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL JET IN VICINITY AND LOW LEVEL HEATING CAUSING
INSTABILITY. LL JET COULD BE 40 KTS. VERY GOOD FOR EARLY AUGUST
BUT NOT UNUSUAL WITH YET ANOTHER NE US UL TROF. SOUNDINGS SHOW 1K
CAPE COMBINED WITH 40 KT 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR.

MONDAY NIGHT SLOW DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SE THROUGH THE CWA. TUESDAY MORE SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP IT COOL BUT MOST
OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY PM WITH A
FEW SHOWERS. WED DRY THEN A SFC LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THURSDAY
THE MODELS HAVE MUCH MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK BRUSHING SRN
PA. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL BE BUT THINK
IT SHOULD MAKE IT ONLY TO NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FRIDAY DRY
THEN ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE TROF WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE BUT NORMAL FOR
DAY 7 WITH GFS FASTER THAN EURO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT CU WILL COVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES FROM 5-6 KFT.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z... THEN ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AROUND 5-6
KFT. WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN SW AT AROUND 10 KTS
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MSE





000
FXUS61 KBGM 011805
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES ARE SEEN IN THIS FLOW PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY... THE AIRMASS
IS MODERATELY DRY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER WEAK
RANGING FROM AROUND 5-6 DEGREES C PER KM. THE RESULT OF THIS
PATTERN HAS BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE POCONOS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT THEN
ANOTHER PARTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE
WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION
TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF
BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
/40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING
OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES
/PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/.

SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING
IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH
CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT CU WILL COVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES FROM 5-6 KFT.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z... THEN ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AROUND 5-6
KFT. WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN SW AT AROUND 10 KTS
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MSE/PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 011805
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES ARE SEEN IN THIS FLOW PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY... THE AIRMASS
IS MODERATELY DRY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER WEAK
RANGING FROM AROUND 5-6 DEGREES C PER KM. THE RESULT OF THIS
PATTERN HAS BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE POCONOS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT THEN
ANOTHER PARTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE
WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION
TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF
BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
/40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING
OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES
/PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/.

SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING
IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH
CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT CU WILL COVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES FROM 5-6 KFT.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z... THEN ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AROUND 5-6
KFT. WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN SW AT AROUND 10 KTS
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MSE/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011805
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES ARE SEEN IN THIS FLOW PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY... THE AIRMASS
IS MODERATELY DRY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER WEAK
RANGING FROM AROUND 5-6 DEGREES C PER KM. THE RESULT OF THIS
PATTERN HAS BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE POCONOS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT THEN
ANOTHER PARTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE
WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION
TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF
BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
/40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING
OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES
/PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/.

SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING
IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH
CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT CU WILL COVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES FROM 5-6 KFT.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z... THEN ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AROUND 5-6
KFT. WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN SW AT AROUND 10 KTS
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MSE/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011805
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES ARE SEEN IN THIS FLOW PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY... THE AIRMASS
IS MODERATELY DRY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER WEAK
RANGING FROM AROUND 5-6 DEGREES C PER KM. THE RESULT OF THIS
PATTERN HAS BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE POCONOS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT THEN
ANOTHER PARTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE
WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION
TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF
BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
/40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING
OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES
/PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/.

SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING
IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH
CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT CU WILL COVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES FROM 5-6 KFT.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z... THEN ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AROUND 5-6
KFT. WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN SW AT AROUND 10 KTS
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MSE/PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 011738
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
138 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY WITH OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1115 AM... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING EAST FROM THE HUSON VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. 12Z BUF SOUNDING IS LOOKING FAIRLY DRY WITH A WARM NOSE
NEAR 500 MB ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION NAM IS FORECASTING SOME VERY SMALL ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER NE PA AND SOUTHERN NY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COVERAGE LESS THAN 25 PCT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS POINT TOWARD A
LOW CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH POPS
MAINLY 20 TO 30 PCT FOR NORTHEAST WHERE DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN
THE LOWER 60S LATE THIS MORNING... AND MORE LIKE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL NY WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH NEAR 80 IN MOST PLACES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

0645 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/POP/SKY
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

3 AM UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA CURRENTLY AND BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

FOR THE DAY TODAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH EVEN THE NAM INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE. ALSO, A LAYER OF WARM AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE UPSHOT IS ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NY. CERTAINLY NOT ALL DAY RAIN FOR
ANYONE WITH THE DAY GENERALLY FEATURING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH CONTINUING COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA UNDER SKIES WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE
WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION
TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF
BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
/40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING
OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES
/PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/.

SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING
IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH
CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT CU WILL COVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES FROM 5-6 KFT.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z... THEN ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AROUND 5-6
KFT. WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN SW AT AROUND 10 KTS
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MSE/PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 011738
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
138 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY WITH OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1115 AM... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING EAST FROM THE HUSON VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. 12Z BUF SOUNDING IS LOOKING FAIRLY DRY WITH A WARM NOSE
NEAR 500 MB ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION NAM IS FORECASTING SOME VERY SMALL ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER NE PA AND SOUTHERN NY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COVERAGE LESS THAN 25 PCT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS POINT TOWARD A
LOW CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH POPS
MAINLY 20 TO 30 PCT FOR NORTHEAST WHERE DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN
THE LOWER 60S LATE THIS MORNING... AND MORE LIKE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL NY WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH NEAR 80 IN MOST PLACES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

0645 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/POP/SKY
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

3 AM UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA CURRENTLY AND BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

FOR THE DAY TODAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH EVEN THE NAM INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE. ALSO, A LAYER OF WARM AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE UPSHOT IS ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NY. CERTAINLY NOT ALL DAY RAIN FOR
ANYONE WITH THE DAY GENERALLY FEATURING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH CONTINUING COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA UNDER SKIES WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE
WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION
TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF
BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
/40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING
OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES
/PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/.

SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING
IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH
CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT CU WILL COVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES FROM 5-6 KFT.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z... THEN ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AROUND 5-6
KFT. WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN SW AT AROUND 10 KTS
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MSE/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011529
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1129 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY WITH OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1115 AM... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING EAST FROM THE HUSON VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. 12Z BUF SOUNDING IS LOOKING FAIRLY DRY WITH A WARM NOSE
NEAR 500 MB ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION NAM IS FORECASTING SOME VERY SMALL ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER NE PA AND SOUTHERN NY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COVERAGE LESS THAN 25 PCT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS POINT TOWARD A
LOW CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH POPS
MAINLY 20 TO 30 PCT FOR NORTHEAST WHERE DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN
THE LOWER 60S LATE THIS MORNING... AND MORE LIKE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL NY WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH NEAR 80 IN MOST PLACES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

0645 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/POP/SKY
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

3 AM UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA CURRENTLY AND BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

FOR THE DAY TODAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH EVEN THE NAM INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE. ALSO, A LAYER OF WARM AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE UPSHOT IS ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NY. CERTAINLY NOT ALL DAY RAIN FOR
ANYONE WITH THE DAY GENERALLY FEATURING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH CONTINUING COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA UNDER SKIES WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE
WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION
TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF
BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
/40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING
OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES
/PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/.

SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING
IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH
CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT OCCUR
IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT, ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH VFR
PREVAILING FOR MOST SITES. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE LOOK TO BE
TOO STRONG FOR FOG AT KELM BUT MORE DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS
AT KAVP THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FOG OR MIST SO WE HAVE
INDICATED MVFR VISBYS LATE TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011529
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1129 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY WITH OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1115 AM... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING EAST FROM THE HUSON VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. 12Z BUF SOUNDING IS LOOKING FAIRLY DRY WITH A WARM NOSE
NEAR 500 MB ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION NAM IS FORECASTING SOME VERY SMALL ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER NE PA AND SOUTHERN NY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COVERAGE LESS THAN 25 PCT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS POINT TOWARD A
LOW CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH POPS
MAINLY 20 TO 30 PCT FOR NORTHEAST WHERE DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN
THE LOWER 60S LATE THIS MORNING... AND MORE LIKE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL NY WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH NEAR 80 IN MOST PLACES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

0645 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/POP/SKY
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

3 AM UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA CURRENTLY AND BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

FOR THE DAY TODAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH EVEN THE NAM INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE. ALSO, A LAYER OF WARM AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE UPSHOT IS ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NY. CERTAINLY NOT ALL DAY RAIN FOR
ANYONE WITH THE DAY GENERALLY FEATURING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH CONTINUING COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA UNDER SKIES WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE
WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION
TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF
BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
/40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING
OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES
/PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/.

SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING
IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH
CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT OCCUR
IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT, ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH VFR
PREVAILING FOR MOST SITES. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE LOOK TO BE
TOO STRONG FOR FOG AT KELM BUT MORE DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS
AT KAVP THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FOG OR MIST SO WE HAVE
INDICATED MVFR VISBYS LATE TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 011046
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY WITH OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0645 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/POP/SKY
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

3 AM UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA CURRENTLY AND BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

FOR THE DAY TODAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH EVEN THE NAM INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE. ALSO, A LAYER OF WARM AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE UPSHOT IS ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NY. CERTAINLY NOT ALL DAY RAIN FOR
ANYONE WITH THE DAY GENERALLY FEATURING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH CONTINUING COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA UNDER SKIES WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE
WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION
TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF
BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
/40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING
OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES
/PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/.

SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING
IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH
CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT OCCUR
IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT, ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH VFR
PREVAILING FOR MOST SITES. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE LOOK TO BE
TOO STRONG FOR FOG AT KELM BUT MORE DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS
AT KAVP THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FOG OR MIST SO WE HAVE
INDICATED MVFR VISBYS LATE TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011046
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY WITH OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0645 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/POP/SKY
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

3 AM UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA CURRENTLY AND BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

FOR THE DAY TODAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH EVEN THE NAM INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE. ALSO, A LAYER OF WARM AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE UPSHOT IS ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NY. CERTAINLY NOT ALL DAY RAIN FOR
ANYONE WITH THE DAY GENERALLY FEATURING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH CONTINUING COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA UNDER SKIES WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE
WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION
TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF
BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
/40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING
OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES
/PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/.

SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING
IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH
CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT OCCUR
IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT, ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH VFR
PREVAILING FOR MOST SITES. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE LOOK TO BE
TOO STRONG FOR FOG AT KELM BUT MORE DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS
AT KAVP THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FOG OR MIST SO WE HAVE
INDICATED MVFR VISBYS LATE TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 011046
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY WITH OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0645 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/POP/SKY
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

3 AM UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA CURRENTLY AND BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

FOR THE DAY TODAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH EVEN THE NAM INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE. ALSO, A LAYER OF WARM AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE UPSHOT IS ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NY. CERTAINLY NOT ALL DAY RAIN FOR
ANYONE WITH THE DAY GENERALLY FEATURING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH CONTINUING COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA UNDER SKIES WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE
WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION
TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF
BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
/40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING
OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES
/PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/.

SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING
IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH
CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT OCCUR
IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT, ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH VFR
PREVAILING FOR MOST SITES. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE LOOK TO BE
TOO STRONG FOR FOG AT KELM BUT MORE DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS
AT KAVP THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FOG OR MIST SO WE HAVE
INDICATED MVFR VISBYS LATE TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010821
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
421 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY WITH OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CURRENTLY
AND BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NY. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

FOR THE DAY TODAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH EVEN THE NAM INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE. ALSO, A LAYER OF WARM AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE UPSHOT IS ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NY. CERTAINLY NOT ALL DAY RAIN FOR
ANYONE WITH THE DAY GENERALLY FEATURING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH CONTINUING COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA UNDER SKIES WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE
WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION
TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF
BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
/40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING
OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES
/PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/.

SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING
IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH
CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO KSYR WITH
SOME THUNDER NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE NORTH SO HAVE MENTIONED VCTS
UNTIL 07Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO AFFECT KRME BUT ANY THUNDER
SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH. NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THESE
SHOWERS WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH
KITH/KBGM/KELM/KAVP MAY ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BY LATER TONIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS
NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT
OCCUR IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 010709
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
309 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY WITH OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CURRENTLY
AND BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NY. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

FOR THE DAY TODAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH EVEN THE NAM INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE. ALSO, A LAYER OF WARM AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE UPSHOT IS ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NY. CERTAINLY NOT ALL DAY RAIN FOR
ANYONE WITH THE DAY GENERALLY FEATURING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH CONTINUING COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA UNDER SKIES WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO KSYR WITH
SOME THUNDER NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE NORTH SO HAVE MENTIONED VCTS
UNTIL 07Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO AFFECT KRME BUT ANY THUNDER
SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH. NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THESE
SHOWERS WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH
KITH/KBGM/KELM/KAVP MAY ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BY LATER TONIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS
NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT
OCCUR IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010709
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
309 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY WITH OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CURRENTLY
AND BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NY. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

FOR THE DAY TODAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH EVEN THE NAM INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE. ALSO, A LAYER OF WARM AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE UPSHOT IS ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NY. CERTAINLY NOT ALL DAY RAIN FOR
ANYONE WITH THE DAY GENERALLY FEATURING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH CONTINUING COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA UNDER SKIES WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO KSYR WITH
SOME THUNDER NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE NORTH SO HAVE MENTIONED VCTS
UNTIL 07Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO AFFECT KRME BUT ANY THUNDER
SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH. NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THESE
SHOWERS WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH
KITH/KBGM/KELM/KAVP MAY ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BY LATER TONIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS
NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT
OCCUR IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 010544
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
144 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
UPDATES FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH. FIRST BATCH WAS FROM NRN
ONONDAGA TO ONEIDA EARLIER. NOW A FEW SPITS WITHIN 30 MILES OF
HERE. MOSTLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN ISOLATED. SHOULD DIE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND BE GONE BY 10 PM ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. TEMPERATURES
HOLDING UP WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO KSYR WITH
SOME THUNDER NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE NORTH SO HAVE MENTIONED VCTS
UNTIL 07Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO AFFECT KRME BUT ANY THUNDER
SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH. NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THESE
SHOWERS WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH
KITH/KBGM/KELM/KAVP MAY ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BY LATER TONIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS
NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT
OCCUR IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 010544
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
144 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
UPDATES FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH. FIRST BATCH WAS FROM NRN
ONONDAGA TO ONEIDA EARLIER. NOW A FEW SPITS WITHIN 30 MILES OF
HERE. MOSTLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN ISOLATED. SHOULD DIE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND BE GONE BY 10 PM ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. TEMPERATURES
HOLDING UP WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO KSYR WITH
SOME THUNDER NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE NORTH SO HAVE MENTIONED VCTS
UNTIL 07Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO AFFECT KRME BUT ANY THUNDER
SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH. NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THESE
SHOWERS WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH
KITH/KBGM/KELM/KAVP MAY ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BY LATER TONIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS
NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT
OCCUR IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 312354
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
754 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
UPDATES FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH. FIRST BATCH WAS FROM NRN
ONONDAGA TO ONEIDA EARLIER. NOW A FEW SPITS WITHIN 30 MILES OF
HERE. MOSTLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN ISOLATED. SHOULD DIE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND BE GONE BY 10 PM ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. TEMPERATURES
HOLDING UP WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WEAK UPR LVL SYSTEM TRIGGERING A FEW SPRINKLES ATTM BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY XPCTD. OVRNGT...SECOND WEAK SYSTEM SWEEPS
THRU AND AGAIN MAY CAUSE A FEW SPRONKLES...WITH NO RESTRICTIONS.
HWVR...CLDS AND INCRSD MIXING SHD KEEP ANY VLY FOG FROM FRMG. VFR
CONDS CONT INTO SAT WITH THE WLY FLOW. ANOTHER UPR TROF SWINGS
BY...BUT SFC HIPRES SHD KEEP CONDS MAINLY CLR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST LATE DAY MONDAY WITH COLD
FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTION.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH/TAC
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM/TAC





000
FXUS61 KBGM 312354
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
754 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
UPDATES FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH. FIRST BATCH WAS FROM NRN
ONONDAGA TO ONEIDA EARLIER. NOW A FEW SPITS WITHIN 30 MILES OF
HERE. MOSTLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN ISOLATED. SHOULD DIE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND BE GONE BY 10 PM ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. TEMPERATURES
HOLDING UP WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WEAK UPR LVL SYSTEM TRIGGERING A FEW SPRINKLES ATTM BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY XPCTD. OVRNGT...SECOND WEAK SYSTEM SWEEPS
THRU AND AGAIN MAY CAUSE A FEW SPRONKLES...WITH NO RESTRICTIONS.
HWVR...CLDS AND INCRSD MIXING SHD KEEP ANY VLY FOG FROM FRMG. VFR
CONDS CONT INTO SAT WITH THE WLY FLOW. ANOTHER UPR TROF SWINGS
BY...BUT SFC HIPRES SHD KEEP CONDS MAINLY CLR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST LATE DAY MONDAY WITH COLD
FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTION.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH/TAC
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM/TAC




000
FXUS61 KBGM 312340
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
740 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VERY WEAK UPR LVL SYSTEM TRIGGERING A FEW SPRINKLES ATTM BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY XPCTD. OVRNGT...SECOND WEAK SYSTEM SWEEPS
THRU AND AGAIN MAY CAUSE A FEW SPRONKLES...WITH NO RESTRICTIONS.
HWVR...CLDS AND INCRSD MIXING SHD KEEP ANY VLY FOG FROM FRMG. VFR
CONDS CONT INTO SAT WITH THE WLY FLOW. ANOTHER UPR TROF SWINGS
BY...BUT SFC HIPRES SHD KEEP CONDS MAINLY CLR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST LATE DAY MONDAY WITH COLD
FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTION.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM/TAC




000
FXUS61 KBGM 312340
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
740 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VERY WEAK UPR LVL SYSTEM TRIGGERING A FEW SPRINKLES ATTM BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY XPCTD. OVRNGT...SECOND WEAK SYSTEM SWEEPS
THRU AND AGAIN MAY CAUSE A FEW SPRONKLES...WITH NO RESTRICTIONS.
HWVR...CLDS AND INCRSD MIXING SHD KEEP ANY VLY FOG FROM FRMG. VFR
CONDS CONT INTO SAT WITH THE WLY FLOW. ANOTHER UPR TROF SWINGS
BY...BUT SFC HIPRES SHD KEEP CONDS MAINLY CLR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST LATE DAY MONDAY WITH COLD
FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTION.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM/TAC





000
FXUS61 KBGM 312340
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
740 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VERY WEAK UPR LVL SYSTEM TRIGGERING A FEW SPRINKLES ATTM BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY XPCTD. OVRNGT...SECOND WEAK SYSTEM SWEEPS
THRU AND AGAIN MAY CAUSE A FEW SPRONKLES...WITH NO RESTRICTIONS.
HWVR...CLDS AND INCRSD MIXING SHD KEEP ANY VLY FOG FROM FRMG. VFR
CONDS CONT INTO SAT WITH THE WLY FLOW. ANOTHER UPR TROF SWINGS
BY...BUT SFC HIPRES SHD KEEP CONDS MAINLY CLR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST LATE DAY MONDAY WITH COLD
FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTION.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM/TAC




000
FXUS61 KBGM 312340
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
740 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VERY WEAK UPR LVL SYSTEM TRIGGERING A FEW SPRINKLES ATTM BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY XPCTD. OVRNGT...SECOND WEAK SYSTEM SWEEPS
THRU AND AGAIN MAY CAUSE A FEW SPRONKLES...WITH NO RESTRICTIONS.
HWVR...CLDS AND INCRSD MIXING SHD KEEP ANY VLY FOG FROM FRMG. VFR
CONDS CONT INTO SAT WITH THE WLY FLOW. ANOTHER UPR TROF SWINGS
BY...BUT SFC HIPRES SHD KEEP CONDS MAINLY CLR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST LATE DAY MONDAY WITH COLD
FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTION.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM/TAC





000
FXUS61 KBGM 311941
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
341 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...

VFR THROUGH 18Z. SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW SPRINKLES BUT LESS THAN ISOLATED. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE...ROC TO BUF...ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ESE. THEY SHOULD DIE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MORE
STABLE DRIER AIR IN CENTRAL NY LATE THIS AFTN.

TONIGHT SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. NO FOG
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND NO RAIN
TODAY. VERY LITTLE VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING.  SATURDAY A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT MOST AFTER 18Z.

WEST WINDS 10 KNOTS DIMINISH TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND VARIABLE IN
VALLEYS. WEST WINDS 10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE MORNING AND AFTN
SATURDAY.


.OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF
MVFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT
KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTION.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC





000
FXUS61 KBGM 311941
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
341 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...

VFR THROUGH 18Z. SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW SPRINKLES BUT LESS THAN ISOLATED. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE...ROC TO BUF...ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ESE. THEY SHOULD DIE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MORE
STABLE DRIER AIR IN CENTRAL NY LATE THIS AFTN.

TONIGHT SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. NO FOG
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND NO RAIN
TODAY. VERY LITTLE VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING.  SATURDAY A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT MOST AFTER 18Z.

WEST WINDS 10 KNOTS DIMINISH TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND VARIABLE IN
VALLEYS. WEST WINDS 10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE MORNING AND AFTN
SATURDAY.


.OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF
MVFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT
KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTION.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC




000
FXUS61 KBGM 311737
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
137 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY AND SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BRING A CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY... MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... HOWEVER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES DO SEEM TO KEY IN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POP VALUES
ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY HOWEVER THE
OVERALL TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH MID- WEEK
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD...BRINGING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL H5 THICKNESS AND H8 TEMPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. SOME SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER VFR SHOULD STILL
PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TODAY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE.


.OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR
IN SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 311737
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
137 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY AND SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BRING A CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY... MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... HOWEVER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES DO SEEM TO KEY IN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POP VALUES
ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY HOWEVER THE
OVERALL TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH MID- WEEK
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD...BRINGING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL H5 THICKNESS AND H8 TEMPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. SOME SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER VFR SHOULD STILL
PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TODAY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE.


.OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR
IN SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 311737
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
137 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY AND SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BRING A CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY... MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... HOWEVER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES DO SEEM TO KEY IN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POP VALUES
ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY HOWEVER THE
OVERALL TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH MID- WEEK
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD...BRINGING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL H5 THICKNESS AND H8 TEMPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. SOME SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER VFR SHOULD STILL
PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TODAY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE.


.OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR
IN SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 311737
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
137 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY AND SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BRING A CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY... MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... HOWEVER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES DO SEEM TO KEY IN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POP VALUES
ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY HOWEVER THE
OVERALL TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH MID- WEEK
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD...BRINGING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL H5 THICKNESS AND H8 TEMPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. SOME SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER VFR SHOULD STILL
PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TODAY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE.


.OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR
IN SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 311052
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0650 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD HOURLY GRIDS
FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

3 AM UPDATE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MOST OF TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

CLOUDS START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. WE MENTION THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS AS EARLY AS THE 8 PM TIME FRAME OVER STEUBEN AND
CHEMUNG COUNTIES HOWEVER MOST LIKELY PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
STORMS MOVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION. WE DO INDICATE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER BASICALLY FROM AROUND THE FINGER LAKES
NORTHWARD HOWEVER THE TIME OF DAY WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE WITH
LIMITED AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY. SHOWERS LOOK TO AFFECT MAINLY
CENTRAL NY OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH BEFORE MAKING MUCH HEADWAY INTO
NE PA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN US AND CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE
TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR CNY/NEPA AS MINOR DISTURBANCES ROTATE
THROUGH THE OVERALL NWLY FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO FIT THIS OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH FOCUS REMAINING DURING THE PRIME DESTABILIZATION
HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. NEAR TERM
MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL
SETUP...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT. SEEMS LIKE THE SAFE
BET IN THE FORECAST IS TO SEE-SAW THE POPS UP AND DOWN BETWEEN
DAYLIGHT AND NIGHTTIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN WHAT IT SHOULD BE FOR THE START OF AUGUST...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WITH READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BRING A CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY... MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... HOWEVER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES DO SEEM TO KEY IN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POP VALUES
ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY HOWEVER THE
OVERALL TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH MID- WEEK
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD...BRINGING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL H5 THICKNESS AND H8 TEMPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. SOME SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER VFR SHOULD STILL
PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TODAY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE.


.OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR
IN SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 311052
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0650 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD HOURLY GRIDS
FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

3 AM UPDATE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MOST OF TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

CLOUDS START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. WE MENTION THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS AS EARLY AS THE 8 PM TIME FRAME OVER STEUBEN AND
CHEMUNG COUNTIES HOWEVER MOST LIKELY PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
STORMS MOVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION. WE DO INDICATE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER BASICALLY FROM AROUND THE FINGER LAKES
NORTHWARD HOWEVER THE TIME OF DAY WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE WITH
LIMITED AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY. SHOWERS LOOK TO AFFECT MAINLY
CENTRAL NY OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH BEFORE MAKING MUCH HEADWAY INTO
NE PA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN US AND CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE
TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR CNY/NEPA AS MINOR DISTURBANCES ROTATE
THROUGH THE OVERALL NWLY FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO FIT THIS OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH FOCUS REMAINING DURING THE PRIME DESTABILIZATION
HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. NEAR TERM
MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL
SETUP...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT. SEEMS LIKE THE SAFE
BET IN THE FORECAST IS TO SEE-SAW THE POPS UP AND DOWN BETWEEN
DAYLIGHT AND NIGHTTIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN WHAT IT SHOULD BE FOR THE START OF AUGUST...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WITH READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BRING A CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY... MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... HOWEVER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES DO SEEM TO KEY IN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POP VALUES
ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY HOWEVER THE
OVERALL TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH MID- WEEK
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD...BRINGING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL H5 THICKNESS AND H8 TEMPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. SOME SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER VFR SHOULD STILL
PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TODAY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE.


.OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR
IN SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 311052
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0650 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD HOURLY GRIDS
FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

3 AM UPDATE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MOST OF TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

CLOUDS START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. WE MENTION THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS AS EARLY AS THE 8 PM TIME FRAME OVER STEUBEN AND
CHEMUNG COUNTIES HOWEVER MOST LIKELY PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
STORMS MOVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION. WE DO INDICATE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER BASICALLY FROM AROUND THE FINGER LAKES
NORTHWARD HOWEVER THE TIME OF DAY WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE WITH
LIMITED AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY. SHOWERS LOOK TO AFFECT MAINLY
CENTRAL NY OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH BEFORE MAKING MUCH HEADWAY INTO
NE PA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN US AND CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE
TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR CNY/NEPA AS MINOR DISTURBANCES ROTATE
THROUGH THE OVERALL NWLY FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO FIT THIS OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH FOCUS REMAINING DURING THE PRIME DESTABILIZATION
HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. NEAR TERM
MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL
SETUP...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT. SEEMS LIKE THE SAFE
BET IN THE FORECAST IS TO SEE-SAW THE POPS UP AND DOWN BETWEEN
DAYLIGHT AND NIGHTTIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN WHAT IT SHOULD BE FOR THE START OF AUGUST...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WITH READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BRING A CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY... MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... HOWEVER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES DO SEEM TO KEY IN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POP VALUES
ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY HOWEVER THE
OVERALL TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH MID- WEEK
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD...BRINGING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL H5 THICKNESS AND H8 TEMPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. SOME SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER VFR SHOULD STILL
PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TODAY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE.


.OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR
IN SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 311052
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0650 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD HOURLY GRIDS
FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

3 AM UPDATE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MOST OF TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

CLOUDS START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. WE MENTION THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS AS EARLY AS THE 8 PM TIME FRAME OVER STEUBEN AND
CHEMUNG COUNTIES HOWEVER MOST LIKELY PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
STORMS MOVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION. WE DO INDICATE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER BASICALLY FROM AROUND THE FINGER LAKES
NORTHWARD HOWEVER THE TIME OF DAY WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE WITH
LIMITED AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY. SHOWERS LOOK TO AFFECT MAINLY
CENTRAL NY OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH BEFORE MAKING MUCH HEADWAY INTO
NE PA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN US AND CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE
TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR CNY/NEPA AS MINOR DISTURBANCES ROTATE
THROUGH THE OVERALL NWLY FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO FIT THIS OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH FOCUS REMAINING DURING THE PRIME DESTABILIZATION
HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. NEAR TERM
MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL
SETUP...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT. SEEMS LIKE THE SAFE
BET IN THE FORECAST IS TO SEE-SAW THE POPS UP AND DOWN BETWEEN
DAYLIGHT AND NIGHTTIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN WHAT IT SHOULD BE FOR THE START OF AUGUST...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WITH READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BRING A CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY... MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... HOWEVER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES DO SEEM TO KEY IN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POP VALUES
ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY HOWEVER THE
OVERALL TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH MID- WEEK
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD...BRINGING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL H5 THICKNESS AND H8 TEMPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. SOME SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER VFR SHOULD STILL
PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TODAY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE.


.OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR
IN SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 310756
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
356 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF TODAY
WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

CLOUDS START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. WE MENTION THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS AS EARLY AS THE 8 PM TIME FRAME OVER STEUBEN AND
CHEMUNG COUNTIES HOWEVER MOST LIKELY PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
STORMS MOVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION. WE DO INDICATE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER BASICALLY FROM AROUND THE FINGER LAKES
NORTHWARD HOWEVER THE TIME OF DAY WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE WITH
LIMITED AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY. SHOWERS LOOK TO AFFECT MAINLY
CENTRAL NY OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH BEFORE MAKING MUCH HEADWAY INTO
NE PA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN US AND CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE
TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR CNY/NEPA AS MINOR DISTURBANCES ROTATE
THROUGH THE OVERALL NWLY FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO FIT THIS OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH FOCUS REMAINING DURING THE PRIME DESTABILZATION
HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. NEAR TERM
MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL
SETUP...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT. SEEMS LIKE THE SAFE
BET IN THE FORECAST IS TO SEE-SAW THE POPS UP AND DOWN BETWEEN
DAYLIGHT AND NIGHTTIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN WHAT IT SHOULD BE FOR THE START OF AUGUST...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WITH READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BRING A CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY... MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... HOWEVER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES DO SEEM TO KEY IN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POP VALUES
ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY HOWEVER THE
OVERALL TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH MID- WEEK
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD...BRINGING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL H5 THICKNESS AND H8 TEMPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DROPPING DEW PTS AND A GOOD FLOW AT AND ABV THE BNDRY LYR SHD
LIMIT THE FOG FORMATION OVRNGT...SO OTR THAN SOME OCNL MVFR AT
ELM...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTD TO PREVAIL THRU THE NGT AND FRI. WLY
WINDS ARND 10 KNTS WILL RETURN AFT SUNRISE FRI.

.OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR
IN SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT
KELM POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 310756
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
356 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF TODAY
WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

CLOUDS START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. WE MENTION THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS AS EARLY AS THE 8 PM TIME FRAME OVER STEUBEN AND
CHEMUNG COUNTIES HOWEVER MOST LIKELY PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
STORMS MOVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION. WE DO INDICATE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER BASICALLY FROM AROUND THE FINGER LAKES
NORTHWARD HOWEVER THE TIME OF DAY WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE WITH
LIMITED AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY. SHOWERS LOOK TO AFFECT MAINLY
CENTRAL NY OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH BEFORE MAKING MUCH HEADWAY INTO
NE PA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN US AND CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE
TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR CNY/NEPA AS MINOR DISTURBANCES ROTATE
THROUGH THE OVERALL NWLY FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO FIT THIS OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH FOCUS REMAINING DURING THE PRIME DESTABILZATION
HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. NEAR TERM
MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL
SETUP...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT. SEEMS LIKE THE SAFE
BET IN THE FORECAST IS TO SEE-SAW THE POPS UP AND DOWN BETWEEN
DAYLIGHT AND NIGHTTIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN WHAT IT SHOULD BE FOR THE START OF AUGUST...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WITH READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BRING A CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY... MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... HOWEVER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES DO SEEM TO KEY IN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POP VALUES
ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY HOWEVER THE
OVERALL TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH MID- WEEK
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD...BRINGING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL H5 THICKNESS AND H8 TEMPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DROPPING DEW PTS AND A GOOD FLOW AT AND ABV THE BNDRY LYR SHD
LIMIT THE FOG FORMATION OVRNGT...SO OTR THAN SOME OCNL MVFR AT
ELM...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTD TO PREVAIL THRU THE NGT AND FRI. WLY
WINDS ARND 10 KNTS WILL RETURN AFT SUNRISE FRI.

.OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR
IN SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT
KELM POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 310531
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
131 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
915 PM UPDATE...FORECAST IN FINE SHAPE NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED,
ENJOY THE COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT TEMPS/DEW POINTS.

530 PM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FROM SE FA AS FRONT
HAS CLEARED AREA WITH NO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BEHIND BOUNDARY.

230 PM UPDATE...

DRY AIR COMING IN FAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
ALMOST OUT OF THE CWA BUT IT IS POSSIBLE MOVE WILL FORM. HAVE CHC
POPS UNTIL AROUND 8 PM FAR SE.

GUSTY WINDS NOW WILL DROP QUICKLY AT SUNSET. WITH THE DRY AIR
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL NICELY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
BUT AROUND ELMIRA MAY BE COOLER. GUIDANCE LOW 50S. WITH THE RAPID
DRY ADVECTION DO NOT THINK RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD
AND DENSE SO DID NOT INCLUDE. ONLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ACROSS
MOST OF CWA WILL DISAPPEAR. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW.

FRIDAY A REVERSE WITH FEW TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU FORMING
AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S. SOME
MODELS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD 00Z BUT SHOULD BE TOUGH TO
BREAK INTO THIS DRY AIRMASS. KEPT THE CHC POPS AT 00Z IN THE FAR
NW...FINGER LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE ALOFT AS RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. IS
PUSHED WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. HOWEVER TIMING
WITH THESE SYSTEMS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AS
WINDS ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG FOR THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST... HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY... MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING... HOWEVER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DROPPING DEW PTS AND A GOOD FLOW AT AND ABV THE BNDRY LYR SHD
LIMIT THE FOG FORMATION OVRNGT...SO OTR THAN SOME OCNL MVFR AT
ELM...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTD TO PREVAIL THRU THE NGT AND FRI. WLY
WINDS ARND 10 KNTS WILL RETURN AFT SUNRISE FRI.

.OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR
IN SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT
KELM POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 310531
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
131 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
915 PM UPDATE...FORECAST IN FINE SHAPE NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED,
ENJOY THE COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT TEMPS/DEW POINTS.

530 PM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FROM SE FA AS FRONT
HAS CLEARED AREA WITH NO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BEHIND BOUNDARY.

230 PM UPDATE...

DRY AIR COMING IN FAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
ALMOST OUT OF THE CWA BUT IT IS POSSIBLE MOVE WILL FORM. HAVE CHC
POPS UNTIL AROUND 8 PM FAR SE.

GUSTY WINDS NOW WILL DROP QUICKLY AT SUNSET. WITH THE DRY AIR
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL NICELY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
BUT AROUND ELMIRA MAY BE COOLER. GUIDANCE LOW 50S. WITH THE RAPID
DRY ADVECTION DO NOT THINK RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD
AND DENSE SO DID NOT INCLUDE. ONLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ACROSS
MOST OF CWA WILL DISAPPEAR. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW.

FRIDAY A REVERSE WITH FEW TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU FORMING
AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S. SOME
MODELS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD 00Z BUT SHOULD BE TOUGH TO
BREAK INTO THIS DRY AIRMASS. KEPT THE CHC POPS AT 00Z IN THE FAR
NW...FINGER LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE ALOFT AS RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. IS
PUSHED WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. HOWEVER TIMING
WITH THESE SYSTEMS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AS
WINDS ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG FOR THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST... HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY... MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING... HOWEVER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DROPPING DEW PTS AND A GOOD FLOW AT AND ABV THE BNDRY LYR SHD
LIMIT THE FOG FORMATION OVRNGT...SO OTR THAN SOME OCNL MVFR AT
ELM...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTD TO PREVAIL THRU THE NGT AND FRI. WLY
WINDS ARND 10 KNTS WILL RETURN AFT SUNRISE FRI.

.OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR
IN SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT
KELM POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 310121
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
921 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
915 PM UPDATE...FORECAST IN FINE SHAPE NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED,
ENJOY THE COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT TEMPS/DEW POINTS.

530 PM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FROM SE FA AS FRONT
HAS CLEARED AREA WITH NO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BEHIND BOUNDARY.

230 PM UPDATE...

DRY AIR COMING IN FAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
ALMOST OUT OF THE CWA BUT IT IS POSSIBLE MOVE WILL FORM. HAVE CHC
POPS UNTIL AROUND 8 PM FAR SE.

GUSTY WINDS NOW WILL DROP QUICKLY AT SUNSET. WITH THE DRY AIR
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL NICELY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
BUT AROUND ELMIRA MAY BE COOLER. GUIDANCE LOW 50S. WITH THE RAPID
DRY ADVECTION DO NOT THINK RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD
AND DENSE SO DID NOT INCLUDE. ONLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ACROSS
MOST OF CWA WILL DISAPPEAR. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW.

FRIDAY A REVERSE WITH FEW TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU FORMING
AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S. SOME
MODELS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD 00Z BUT SHOULD BE TOUGH TO
BREAK INTO THIS DRY AIRMASS. KEPT THE CHC POPS AT 00Z IN THE FAR
NW...FINGER LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE ALOFT AS RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. IS
PUSHED WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. HOWEVER TIMING
WITH THESE SYSTEMS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AS
WINDS ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG FOR THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST... HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY... MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING... HOWEVER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FNT HAS MVD WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND A DRIER
FLOW OF AIR FROM THE NW REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DROPPING DEW PTS
AND A GOOD FLOW AT AND ABV THE BNDRY LYR SHD LIMIT THE FOG
FORMATION OVRNGT...SO OTR THAN SOME OCNL MVFR AT ELM...VFR CONDS
ARE XPCTD TO PREVAIL THRU THE NGT AND FRI. WLY WINDS ARND 10 KNTS
WILL RETURN AFT SUNRISE FRI.

.OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DGM/TAC




000
FXUS61 KBGM 302335
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
735 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FROM SE FA AS FRONT
HAS CLEARED AREA WITH NO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BEHIND BOUNDARY.

230 PM UPDATE...

DRY AIR COMING IN FAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
ALMOST OUT OF THE CWA BUT IT IS POSSIBLE MOVE WILL FORM. HAVE CHC
POPS UNTIL AROUND 8 PM FAR SE.

GUSTY WINDS NOW WILL DROP QUICKLY AT SUNSET. WITH THE DRY AIR
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL NICELY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
BUT AROUND ELMIRA MAY BE COOLER. GUIDANCE LOW 50S. WITH THE RAPID
DRY ADVECTION DO NOT THINK RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD
AND DENSE SO DID NOT INCLUDE. ONLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ACROSS
MOST OF CWA WILL DISAPPEAR. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW.

FRIDAY A REVERSE WITH FEW TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU FORMING
AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S. SOME
MODELS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD 00Z BUT SHOULD BE TOUGH TO
BREAK INTO THIS DRY AIRMASS. KEPT THE CHC POPS AT 00Z IN THE FAR
NW...FINGER LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE ALOFT AS RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. IS
PUSHED WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. HOWEVER TIMING
WITH THESE SYSTEMS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AS
WINDS ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG FOR THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST... HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY... MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING... HOWEVER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

COLD FNT HAS MVD WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND A DRIER
FLOW OF AIR FROM THE NW REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DROPPING DEW PTS
AND A GOOD FLOW AT AND ABV THE BNDRY LYR SHD LIMIT THE FOG
FORMATION OVRNGT...SO OTR THAN SOME OCNL MVFR AT ELM...VFR CONDS
ARE XPCTD TO PREVAIL THRU THE NGT AND FRI. WLY WINDS ARND 10 KNTS
WILL RETURN AFT SUNRISE FRI.

.OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DGM/TAC




000
FXUS61 KBGM 302335
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
735 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FROM SE FA AS FRONT
HAS CLEARED AREA WITH NO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BEHIND BOUNDARY.

230 PM UPDATE...

DRY AIR COMING IN FAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
ALMOST OUT OF THE CWA BUT IT IS POSSIBLE MOVE WILL FORM. HAVE CHC
POPS UNTIL AROUND 8 PM FAR SE.

GUSTY WINDS NOW WILL DROP QUICKLY AT SUNSET. WITH THE DRY AIR
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL NICELY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
BUT AROUND ELMIRA MAY BE COOLER. GUIDANCE LOW 50S. WITH THE RAPID
DRY ADVECTION DO NOT THINK RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD
AND DENSE SO DID NOT INCLUDE. ONLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ACROSS
MOST OF CWA WILL DISAPPEAR. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW.

FRIDAY A REVERSE WITH FEW TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU FORMING
AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S. SOME
MODELS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD 00Z BUT SHOULD BE TOUGH TO
BREAK INTO THIS DRY AIRMASS. KEPT THE CHC POPS AT 00Z IN THE FAR
NW...FINGER LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE ALOFT AS RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. IS
PUSHED WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. HOWEVER TIMING
WITH THESE SYSTEMS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AS
WINDS ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG FOR THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST... HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY... MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING... HOWEVER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

COLD FNT HAS MVD WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND A DRIER
FLOW OF AIR FROM THE NW REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DROPPING DEW PTS
AND A GOOD FLOW AT AND ABV THE BNDRY LYR SHD LIMIT THE FOG
FORMATION OVRNGT...SO OTR THAN SOME OCNL MVFR AT ELM...VFR CONDS
ARE XPCTD TO PREVAIL THRU THE NGT AND FRI. WLY WINDS ARND 10 KNTS
WILL RETURN AFT SUNRISE FRI.

.OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DGM/TAC





000
FXUS61 KBGM 302142
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
542 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FROM SE FA AS FRONT
HAS CLEARED AREA WITH NO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BEHIND BOUNDARY.

230 PM UPDATE...

DRY AIR COMING IN FAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
ALMOST OUT OF THE CWA BUT IT IS POSSIBLE MOVE WILL FORM. HAVE CHC
POPS UNTIL AROUND 8 PM FAR SE.

GUSTY WINDS NOW WILL DROP QUICKLY AT SUNSET. WITH THE DRY AIR
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL NICELY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
BUT AROUND ELMIRA MAY BE COOLER. GUIDANCE LOW 50S. WITH THE RAPID
DRY ADVECTION DO NOT THINK RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD
AND DENSE SO DID NOT INCLUDE. ONLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ACROSS
MOST OF CWA WILL DISAPPEAR. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW.

FRIDAY A REVERSE WITH FEW TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU FORMING
AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S. SOME
MODELS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD 00Z BUT SHOULD BE TOUGH TO
BREAK INTO THIS DRY AIRMASS. KEPT THE CHC POPS AT 00Z IN THE FAR
NW...FINGER LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE ALOFT AS RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. IS
PUSHED WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. HOWEVER TIMING
WITH THESE SYSTEMS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AS
WINDS ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG FOR THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST... HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY... MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING... HOWEVER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...

DRIER AIR MOVING IN FAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE RAIN HAS MOVED
WELL SE OF THE TAF SITES.

SCATTERED SKIES THIS AFTN AND FRIDAY AND MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT.

WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG MOSTLY
ELM/AVP...BUT ALL SITES GOT SOME RAIN TODAY. SFC WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM BUT BOUNDARY WINDS AT 20 KTS WILL HELP MIXING.

W/NW WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NW. FRIDAY W TO NW WINDS AT 5
TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...TAC





000
FXUS61 KBGM 302142
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
542 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FROM SE FA AS FRONT
HAS CLEARED AREA WITH NO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BEHIND BOUNDARY.

230 PM UPDATE...

DRY AIR COMING IN FAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
ALMOST OUT OF THE CWA BUT IT IS POSSIBLE MOVE WILL FORM. HAVE CHC
POPS UNTIL AROUND 8 PM FAR SE.

GUSTY WINDS NOW WILL DROP QUICKLY AT SUNSET. WITH THE DRY AIR
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL NICELY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
BUT AROUND ELMIRA MAY BE COOLER. GUIDANCE LOW 50S. WITH THE RAPID
DRY ADVECTION DO NOT THINK RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD
AND DENSE SO DID NOT INCLUDE. ONLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ACROSS
MOST OF CWA WILL DISAPPEAR. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW.

FRIDAY A REVERSE WITH FEW TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU FORMING
AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S. SOME
MODELS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD 00Z BUT SHOULD BE TOUGH TO
BREAK INTO THIS DRY AIRMASS. KEPT THE CHC POPS AT 00Z IN THE FAR
NW...FINGER LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE ALOFT AS RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. IS
PUSHED WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. HOWEVER TIMING
WITH THESE SYSTEMS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AS
WINDS ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG FOR THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST... HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY... MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING... HOWEVER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...

DRIER AIR MOVING IN FAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE RAIN HAS MOVED
WELL SE OF THE TAF SITES.

SCATTERED SKIES THIS AFTN AND FRIDAY AND MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT.

WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG MOSTLY
ELM/AVP...BUT ALL SITES GOT SOME RAIN TODAY. SFC WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM BUT BOUNDARY WINDS AT 20 KTS WILL HELP MIXING.

W/NW WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NW. FRIDAY W TO NW WINDS AT 5
TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...TAC




000
FXUS61 KBGM 302142
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
542 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FROM SE FA AS FRONT
HAS CLEARED AREA WITH NO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BEHIND BOUNDARY.

230 PM UPDATE...

DRY AIR COMING IN FAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
ALMOST OUT OF THE CWA BUT IT IS POSSIBLE MOVE WILL FORM. HAVE CHC
POPS UNTIL AROUND 8 PM FAR SE.

GUSTY WINDS NOW WILL DROP QUICKLY AT SUNSET. WITH THE DRY AIR
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL NICELY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
BUT AROUND ELMIRA MAY BE COOLER. GUIDANCE LOW 50S. WITH THE RAPID
DRY ADVECTION DO NOT THINK RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD
AND DENSE SO DID NOT INCLUDE. ONLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ACROSS
MOST OF CWA WILL DISAPPEAR. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW.

FRIDAY A REVERSE WITH FEW TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU FORMING
AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S. SOME
MODELS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD 00Z BUT SHOULD BE TOUGH TO
BREAK INTO THIS DRY AIRMASS. KEPT THE CHC POPS AT 00Z IN THE FAR
NW...FINGER LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE ALOFT AS RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. IS
PUSHED WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. HOWEVER TIMING
WITH THESE SYSTEMS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AS
WINDS ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG FOR THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST... HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY... MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING... HOWEVER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...

DRIER AIR MOVING IN FAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE RAIN HAS MOVED
WELL SE OF THE TAF SITES.

SCATTERED SKIES THIS AFTN AND FRIDAY AND MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT.

WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG MOSTLY
ELM/AVP...BUT ALL SITES GOT SOME RAIN TODAY. SFC WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM BUT BOUNDARY WINDS AT 20 KTS WILL HELP MIXING.

W/NW WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NW. FRIDAY W TO NW WINDS AT 5
TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...TAC





000
FXUS61 KBGM 302142
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
542 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FROM SE FA AS FRONT
HAS CLEARED AREA WITH NO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BEHIND BOUNDARY.

230 PM UPDATE...

DRY AIR COMING IN FAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
ALMOST OUT OF THE CWA BUT IT IS POSSIBLE MOVE WILL FORM. HAVE CHC
POPS UNTIL AROUND 8 PM FAR SE.

GUSTY WINDS NOW WILL DROP QUICKLY AT SUNSET. WITH THE DRY AIR
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL NICELY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
BUT AROUND ELMIRA MAY BE COOLER. GUIDANCE LOW 50S. WITH THE RAPID
DRY ADVECTION DO NOT THINK RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD
AND DENSE SO DID NOT INCLUDE. ONLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ACROSS
MOST OF CWA WILL DISAPPEAR. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW.

FRIDAY A REVERSE WITH FEW TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU FORMING
AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S. SOME
MODELS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD 00Z BUT SHOULD BE TOUGH TO
BREAK INTO THIS DRY AIRMASS. KEPT THE CHC POPS AT 00Z IN THE FAR
NW...FINGER LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE ALOFT AS RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. IS
PUSHED WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. HOWEVER TIMING
WITH THESE SYSTEMS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AS
WINDS ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG FOR THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST... HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY... MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING... HOWEVER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...

DRIER AIR MOVING IN FAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE RAIN HAS MOVED
WELL SE OF THE TAF SITES.

SCATTERED SKIES THIS AFTN AND FRIDAY AND MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT.

WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG MOSTLY
ELM/AVP...BUT ALL SITES GOT SOME RAIN TODAY. SFC WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM BUT BOUNDARY WINDS AT 20 KTS WILL HELP MIXING.

W/NW WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NW. FRIDAY W TO NW WINDS AT 5
TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...TAC




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