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000
FXUS61 KBGM 211051
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
651 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD MIX
WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6AM UPDATE...
CHANGES TO SLOW DOWN THE EXIT OF THE RAIN AND UP THE RAIN AMOUNTS
6 TO 15Z.

4 AM UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF CURRENT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL NY ON ITS WAY
EAST. BY 8 AM ONLY EXPECTING IT IN THE FAR EAST OF THE CWA.
LIGHTNING HAS ENDED. SO FAR SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH
WITH THIS RAIN BUT NO WATER PROBLEMS. RIVERS HAVE STOPPED FALLING
OR RISEN SLIGHTLY. FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS WERE LOWERED TO BELOW
CAUTION STAGE.

DURING THE DAY SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH A SHORT WAVE. BEST CHANCE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRODUCING SOME CAPE. STILL SOME SHEAR BUT NOT AS MUCH AT LOW
LEVELS AS LATE MONDAY. LIS AND SHOWALTERS DROP TO AROUND ZERO.
SPC HAS THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER WHICH THE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT.
ADDED A SCHC OF THUNDER TO THE CHC/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE
COLDER AIR PWATS BELOW HALF AN INCH. RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH
WITH ISOLATED HALF INCH AMOUNTS IN TSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW
WITH LOW CAPE AND LITTLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP SHEAR DECENT WITH
ANOTHER UL JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE STACKED LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY MOVES
SOUTHEAST TO MAINE THE REST OF THE WEEK. COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD
ENOUGH AS EARLY AS TONIGHT FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW.
WITH THE WARM GROUND IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SNOW SHOWER TO
ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW THIS COULD HAPPEN LATE WED NGT AND LATE THU
NGT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING. WITH SHOWERS MOSTLY LIGHT
THIS PERIOD ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ONLY A FEW TENTHS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SHOWER POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST WED WITH ANOTHER WAVE AND COLD FRONT
GOING THROUGH. RAINFALL LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. AFTER THAT FORCING
WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST PA THIS MORNING
AND ALL REMAINING TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KAVP ARE CURRENTLY VFR.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN VFR BEHIND THE FROPA AS MIXING ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL AS WINDS AT THE SFC. THUS... EXPECT
AS SOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH KAVP... FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY
STARTING LATE MORNING AND LAST THRU EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY... BUT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...DECIDED TO KEEP OUT OF TAF ATTM AS
SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND HARD TO PIN POINT.
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT... EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS THEY WILL BE
DIURNAL IN NATURE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOUT 12 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS. AFTER SUNSET... WINDS WILL FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 211051
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
651 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD MIX
WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6AM UPDATE...
CHANGES TO SLOW DOWN THE EXIT OF THE RAIN AND UP THE RAIN AMOUNTS
6 TO 15Z.

4 AM UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF CURRENT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL NY ON ITS WAY
EAST. BY 8 AM ONLY EXPECTING IT IN THE FAR EAST OF THE CWA.
LIGHTNING HAS ENDED. SO FAR SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH
WITH THIS RAIN BUT NO WATER PROBLEMS. RIVERS HAVE STOPPED FALLING
OR RISEN SLIGHTLY. FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS WERE LOWERED TO BELOW
CAUTION STAGE.

DURING THE DAY SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH A SHORT WAVE. BEST CHANCE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRODUCING SOME CAPE. STILL SOME SHEAR BUT NOT AS MUCH AT LOW
LEVELS AS LATE MONDAY. LIS AND SHOWALTERS DROP TO AROUND ZERO.
SPC HAS THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER WHICH THE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT.
ADDED A SCHC OF THUNDER TO THE CHC/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE
COLDER AIR PWATS BELOW HALF AN INCH. RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH
WITH ISOLATED HALF INCH AMOUNTS IN TSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW
WITH LOW CAPE AND LITTLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP SHEAR DECENT WITH
ANOTHER UL JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE STACKED LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY MOVES
SOUTHEAST TO MAINE THE REST OF THE WEEK. COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD
ENOUGH AS EARLY AS TONIGHT FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW.
WITH THE WARM GROUND IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SNOW SHOWER TO
ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW THIS COULD HAPPEN LATE WED NGT AND LATE THU
NGT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING. WITH SHOWERS MOSTLY LIGHT
THIS PERIOD ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ONLY A FEW TENTHS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SHOWER POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST WED WITH ANOTHER WAVE AND COLD FRONT
GOING THROUGH. RAINFALL LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. AFTER THAT FORCING
WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST PA THIS MORNING
AND ALL REMAINING TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KAVP ARE CURRENTLY VFR.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN VFR BEHIND THE FROPA AS MIXING ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL AS WINDS AT THE SFC. THUS... EXPECT
AS SOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH KAVP... FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY
STARTING LATE MORNING AND LAST THRU EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY... BUT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...DECIDED TO KEEP OUT OF TAF ATTM AS
SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND HARD TO PIN POINT.
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT... EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS THEY WILL BE
DIURNAL IN NATURE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOUT 12 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS. AFTER SUNSET... WINDS WILL FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 211017
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
617 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD MIX
WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6AM UPDATE...
CHANGES TO SLOW DOWN THE EXIT OF THE RAIN AND UP THE RAIN AMOUNTS
6 TO 15Z.

4 AM UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF CURRENT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL NY ON ITS WAY
EAST. BY 8 AM ONLY EXPECTING IT IN THE FAR EAST OF THE CWA.
LIGHTNING HAS ENDED. SO FAR SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH
WITH THIS RAIN BUT NO WATER PROBLEMS. RIVERS HAVE STOPPED FALLING
OR RISEN SLIGHTLY. FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS WERE LOWERED TO BELOW
CAUTION STAGE.

DURING THE DAY SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH A SHORT WAVE. BEST CHANCE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRODUCING SOME CAPE. STILL SOME SHEAR BUT NOT AS MUCH AT LOW
LEVELS AS LATE MONDAY. LIS AND SHOWALTERS DROP TO AROUND ZERO.
SPC HAS THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER WHICH THE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT.
ADDED A SCHC OF THUNDER TO THE CHC/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE
COLDER AIR PWATS BELOW HALF AN INCH. RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH
WITH ISOLATED HALF INCH AMOUNTS IN TSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW
WITH LOW CAPE AND LITTLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP SHEAR DECENT WITH
ANOTHER UL JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE STACKED LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY MOVES
SOUTHEAST TO MAINE THE REST OF THE WEEK. COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD
ENOUGH AS EARLY AS TONIGHT FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW.
WITH THE WARM GROUND IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SNOW SHOWER TO
ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW THIS COULD HAPPEN LATE WED NGT AND LATE THU
NGT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING. WITH SHOWERS MOSTLY LIGHT
THIS PERIOD ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ONLY A FEW TENTHS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SHOWER POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST WED WITH ANOTHER WAVE AND COLD FRONT
GOING THROUGH. RAINFALL LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. AFTER THAT FORCING
WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE STILL PUSHING EAST
OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAVE
STARTED TO DIMINISH. FOR THE MOST PART... SHOWERS ARE VFR WITH
MVFR VISBYS. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS OVER KITH... KELM...
AND KBGM UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER BEHIND THE FROPA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
THEN A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN.
DECIDED TO NOT MENTION TSRA IN TAF ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE
ON TIMING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY AND BREEZY THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 211017
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
617 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD MIX
WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6AM UPDATE...
CHANGES TO SLOW DOWN THE EXIT OF THE RAIN AND UP THE RAIN AMOUNTS
6 TO 15Z.

4 AM UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF CURRENT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL NY ON ITS WAY
EAST. BY 8 AM ONLY EXPECTING IT IN THE FAR EAST OF THE CWA.
LIGHTNING HAS ENDED. SO FAR SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH
WITH THIS RAIN BUT NO WATER PROBLEMS. RIVERS HAVE STOPPED FALLING
OR RISEN SLIGHTLY. FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS WERE LOWERED TO BELOW
CAUTION STAGE.

DURING THE DAY SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH A SHORT WAVE. BEST CHANCE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRODUCING SOME CAPE. STILL SOME SHEAR BUT NOT AS MUCH AT LOW
LEVELS AS LATE MONDAY. LIS AND SHOWALTERS DROP TO AROUND ZERO.
SPC HAS THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER WHICH THE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT.
ADDED A SCHC OF THUNDER TO THE CHC/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE
COLDER AIR PWATS BELOW HALF AN INCH. RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH
WITH ISOLATED HALF INCH AMOUNTS IN TSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW
WITH LOW CAPE AND LITTLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP SHEAR DECENT WITH
ANOTHER UL JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE STACKED LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY MOVES
SOUTHEAST TO MAINE THE REST OF THE WEEK. COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD
ENOUGH AS EARLY AS TONIGHT FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW.
WITH THE WARM GROUND IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SNOW SHOWER TO
ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW THIS COULD HAPPEN LATE WED NGT AND LATE THU
NGT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING. WITH SHOWERS MOSTLY LIGHT
THIS PERIOD ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ONLY A FEW TENTHS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SHOWER POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST WED WITH ANOTHER WAVE AND COLD FRONT
GOING THROUGH. RAINFALL LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. AFTER THAT FORCING
WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE STILL PUSHING EAST
OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAVE
STARTED TO DIMINISH. FOR THE MOST PART... SHOWERS ARE VFR WITH
MVFR VISBYS. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS OVER KITH... KELM...
AND KBGM UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER BEHIND THE FROPA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
THEN A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN.
DECIDED TO NOT MENTION TSRA IN TAF ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE
ON TIMING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY AND BREEZY THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 210836
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
436 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD MIX
WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF CURRENT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL NY ON ITS WAY
EAST. BY 8 AM ONLY EXPECTING IT IN THE FAR EAST OF THE CWA.
LIGHTNING HAS ENDED. SO FAR SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH
WITH THIS RAIN BUT NO WATER PROBLEMS. RIVERS HAVE STOPPED FALLING
OR RISEN SLIGHTLY. FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS WERE LOWERED TO BELOW
CAUTION STAGE.

DURING THE DAY SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH A SHORT WAVE. BEST CHANCE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRODUCING SOME CAPE. STILL SOME SHEAR BUT NOT AS MUCH AT LOW
LEVELS AS LATE MONDAY. LIS AND SHOWALTERS DROP TO AROUND ZERO.
SPC HAS THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER WHICH THE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT.
ADDED A SCHC OF THUNDER TO THE CHC/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE
COLDER AIR PWATS BELOW HALF AN INCH. RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH
WITH ISOLATED HALF INCH AMOUNTS IN TSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW
WITH LOW CAPE AND LITTLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP SHEAR DECENT WITH
ANOTHER UL JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE STACKED LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY MOVES
SOUTHEAST TO MAINE THE REST OF THE WEEK. COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD
ENOUGH AS EARLY AS TONIGHT FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW.
WITH THE WARM GROUND IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SNOW SHOWER TO
ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW THIS COULD HAPPEN LATE WED NGT AND LATE THU
NGT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING. WITH SHOWERS MOSTLY LIGHT
THIS PERIOD ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ONLY A FEW TENTHS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SHOWER POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST WED WITH ANOTHER WAVE AND COLD FRONT
GOING THROUGH. RAINFALL LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. AFTER THAT FORCING
WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE STILL PUSHING EAST
OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAVE
STARTED TO DIMINISH. FOR THE MOST PART... SHOWERS ARE VFR WITH
MVFR VISBYS. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS OVER KITH... KELM...
AND KBGM UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER BEHIND THE FROPA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
THEN A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN.
DECIDED TO NOT MENTION TSRA IN TAF ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE
ON TIMING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY AND BREEZY THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 210559
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
COULD MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
11 PM UPDATE...
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF SEVERE TSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 92. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTED IN THIS EVENING WHICH
STEEPENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE HAVE HAD MANY REPORTS OF SMALL
HAIL...IN SOME CASES A LOT OF IT...AND YET NO LARGE HAIL. WIND
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SCANT. PENN YAN REACHED 34 KTS. THE RELATIVELY
COOL AIR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE LIKELY PREVENTED
HIGHER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE STILL PUSHING EAST
OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAVE
STARTED TO DIMINISH. FOR THE MOST PART... SHOWERS ARE VFR WITH
MVFR VISBYS. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS OVER KITH... KELM...
AND KBGM UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER BEHIND THE FROPA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
THEN A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN.
DECIDED TO NOT MENTION TSRA IN TAF ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE
ON TIMING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY AND BREEZY THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 210559
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
COULD MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
11 PM UPDATE...
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF SEVERE TSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 92. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTED IN THIS EVENING WHICH
STEEPENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE HAVE HAD MANY REPORTS OF SMALL
HAIL...IN SOME CASES A LOT OF IT...AND YET NO LARGE HAIL. WIND
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SCANT. PENN YAN REACHED 34 KTS. THE RELATIVELY
COOL AIR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE LIKELY PREVENTED
HIGHER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE STILL PUSHING EAST
OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAVE
STARTED TO DIMINISH. FOR THE MOST PART... SHOWERS ARE VFR WITH
MVFR VISBYS. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS OVER KITH... KELM...
AND KBGM UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER BEHIND THE FROPA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
THEN A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN.
DECIDED TO NOT MENTION TSRA IN TAF ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE
ON TIMING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY AND BREEZY THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 210559
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
COULD MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
11 PM UPDATE...
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF SEVERE TSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 92. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTED IN THIS EVENING WHICH
STEEPENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE HAVE HAD MANY REPORTS OF SMALL
HAIL...IN SOME CASES A LOT OF IT...AND YET NO LARGE HAIL. WIND
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SCANT. PENN YAN REACHED 34 KTS. THE RELATIVELY
COOL AIR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE LIKELY PREVENTED
HIGHER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE STILL PUSHING EAST
OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAVE
STARTED TO DIMINISH. FOR THE MOST PART... SHOWERS ARE VFR WITH
MVFR VISBYS. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS OVER KITH... KELM...
AND KBGM UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER BEHIND THE FROPA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
THEN A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN.
DECIDED TO NOT MENTION TSRA IN TAF ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE
ON TIMING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY AND BREEZY THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 210559
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
COULD MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
11 PM UPDATE...
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF SEVERE TSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 92. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTED IN THIS EVENING WHICH
STEEPENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE HAVE HAD MANY REPORTS OF SMALL
HAIL...IN SOME CASES A LOT OF IT...AND YET NO LARGE HAIL. WIND
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SCANT. PENN YAN REACHED 34 KTS. THE RELATIVELY
COOL AIR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE LIKELY PREVENTED
HIGHER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE STILL PUSHING EAST
OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAVE
STARTED TO DIMINISH. FOR THE MOST PART... SHOWERS ARE VFR WITH
MVFR VISBYS. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS OVER KITH... KELM...
AND KBGM UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER BEHIND THE FROPA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
THEN A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN.
DECIDED TO NOT MENTION TSRA IN TAF ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE
ON TIMING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY AND BREEZY THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH





000
FXUS61 KBGM 210310
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1110 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
COULD MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
11 PM UPDATE...
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF SEVERE TSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 92. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTED IN THIS EVENING WHICH
STEEPENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE HAVE HAD MANY REPORTS OF SMALL
HAIL...IN SOME CASES A LOT OF IT...AND YET NO LARGE HAIL. WIND
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SCANT. PENN YAN REACHED 34 KTS. THE RELATIVELY
COOL AIR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE LIKELY PREVENTED
HIGHER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VIGOROUS WAVE WILL GO THROUGH THE TERMINALS 00Z-05Z THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS FOR ALL AND LIKELY THUNDER KELM-KAVP AND PROBABLE FOR
KITH-KBGM...SEE ASSOCIATED TEMPO GROUPS. STRONG GUSTY SW WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY KAVP-KELM-KBGM. THE
CONVECTIVE WAVE WILL PRECEDE THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT BY A COUPLE
HOURS OR SO...THUS BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINE...SCT SHOWERS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT /SEVERAL CASES FUEL
ALT...AND FOR KBGM IFR CIG/. MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR...THOUGH STILL SOME SCT
-SHRA ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...FOR KSYR-KRME LOCALIZED ESE SURFACE WIND WILL BE IN
FAIR OPPOSITION TO SSW 35 KT JET AT 2 KFT AGL...THUS LLWS FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE WIND FIELDS WEAKEN BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SSE-S TO VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN FOR ALL
TERMINALS VEERING WSE-W 8-10 KTS...WITH GUSTS 16-20 KTS DURING
THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 210310
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1110 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
COULD MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
11 PM UPDATE...
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF SEVERE TSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 92. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTED IN THIS EVENING WHICH
STEEPENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE HAVE HAD MANY REPORTS OF SMALL
HAIL...IN SOME CASES A LOT OF IT...AND YET NO LARGE HAIL. WIND
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SCANT. PENN YAN REACHED 34 KTS. THE RELATIVELY
COOL AIR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE LIKELY PREVENTED
HIGHER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VIGOROUS WAVE WILL GO THROUGH THE TERMINALS 00Z-05Z THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS FOR ALL AND LIKELY THUNDER KELM-KAVP AND PROBABLE FOR
KITH-KBGM...SEE ASSOCIATED TEMPO GROUPS. STRONG GUSTY SW WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY KAVP-KELM-KBGM. THE
CONVECTIVE WAVE WILL PRECEDE THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT BY A COUPLE
HOURS OR SO...THUS BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINE...SCT SHOWERS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT /SEVERAL CASES FUEL
ALT...AND FOR KBGM IFR CIG/. MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR...THOUGH STILL SOME SCT
-SHRA ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...FOR KSYR-KRME LOCALIZED ESE SURFACE WIND WILL BE IN
FAIR OPPOSITION TO SSW 35 KT JET AT 2 KFT AGL...THUS LLWS FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE WIND FIELDS WEAKEN BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SSE-S TO VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN FOR ALL
TERMINALS VEERING WSE-W 8-10 KTS...WITH GUSTS 16-20 KTS DURING
THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 210310
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1110 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
COULD MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
11 PM UPDATE...
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF SEVERE TSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 92. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTED IN THIS EVENING WHICH
STEEPENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE HAVE HAD MANY REPORTS OF SMALL
HAIL...IN SOME CASES A LOT OF IT...AND YET NO LARGE HAIL. WIND
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SCANT. PENN YAN REACHED 34 KTS. THE RELATIVELY
COOL AIR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE LIKELY PREVENTED
HIGHER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VIGOROUS WAVE WILL GO THROUGH THE TERMINALS 00Z-05Z THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS FOR ALL AND LIKELY THUNDER KELM-KAVP AND PROBABLE FOR
KITH-KBGM...SEE ASSOCIATED TEMPO GROUPS. STRONG GUSTY SW WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY KAVP-KELM-KBGM. THE
CONVECTIVE WAVE WILL PRECEDE THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT BY A COUPLE
HOURS OR SO...THUS BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINE...SCT SHOWERS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT /SEVERAL CASES FUEL
ALT...AND FOR KBGM IFR CIG/. MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR...THOUGH STILL SOME SCT
-SHRA ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...FOR KSYR-KRME LOCALIZED ESE SURFACE WIND WILL BE IN
FAIR OPPOSITION TO SSW 35 KT JET AT 2 KFT AGL...THUS LLWS FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE WIND FIELDS WEAKEN BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SSE-S TO VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN FOR ALL
TERMINALS VEERING WSE-W 8-10 KTS...WITH GUSTS 16-20 KTS DURING
THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 210310
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1110 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
COULD MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
11 PM UPDATE...
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF SEVERE TSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 92. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTED IN THIS EVENING WHICH
STEEPENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE HAVE HAD MANY REPORTS OF SMALL
HAIL...IN SOME CASES A LOT OF IT...AND YET NO LARGE HAIL. WIND
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SCANT. PENN YAN REACHED 34 KTS. THE RELATIVELY
COOL AIR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE LIKELY PREVENTED
HIGHER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VIGOROUS WAVE WILL GO THROUGH THE TERMINALS 00Z-05Z THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS FOR ALL AND LIKELY THUNDER KELM-KAVP AND PROBABLE FOR
KITH-KBGM...SEE ASSOCIATED TEMPO GROUPS. STRONG GUSTY SW WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY KAVP-KELM-KBGM. THE
CONVECTIVE WAVE WILL PRECEDE THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT BY A COUPLE
HOURS OR SO...THUS BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINE...SCT SHOWERS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT /SEVERAL CASES FUEL
ALT...AND FOR KBGM IFR CIG/. MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR...THOUGH STILL SOME SCT
-SHRA ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...FOR KSYR-KRME LOCALIZED ESE SURFACE WIND WILL BE IN
FAIR OPPOSITION TO SSW 35 KT JET AT 2 KFT AGL...THUS LLWS FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE WIND FIELDS WEAKEN BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SSE-S TO VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN FOR ALL
TERMINALS VEERING WSE-W 8-10 KTS...WITH GUSTS 16-20 KTS DURING
THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 210027
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
827 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD
MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VIGOROUS WAVE WILL GO THROUGH THE TERMINALS 00Z-05Z THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS FOR ALL AND LIKELY THUNDER KELM-KAVP AND PROBABLE FOR
KITH-KBGM...SEE ASSOCIATED TEMPO GROUPS. STRONG GUSTY SW WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY KAVP-KELM-KBGM. THE
CONVECTIVE WAVE WILL PRECEDE THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT BY A COUPLE
HOURS OR SO...THUS BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINE...SCT SHOWERS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT /SEVERAL CASES FUEL
ALT...AND FOR KBGM IFR CIG/. MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR...THOUGH STILL SOME SCT
-SHRA ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...FOR KSYR-KRME LOCALIZED ESE SURFACE WIND WILL BE IN
FAIR OPPOSITION TO SSW 35 KT JET AT 2 KFT AGL...THUS LLWS FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE WIND FIELDS WEAKEN BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SSE-S TO VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN FOR ALL
TERMINALS VEERING WSE-W 8-10 KTS...WITH GUSTS 16-20 KTS DURING
THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 210027
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
827 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD
MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VIGOROUS WAVE WILL GO THROUGH THE TERMINALS 00Z-05Z THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS FOR ALL AND LIKELY THUNDER KELM-KAVP AND PROBABLE FOR
KITH-KBGM...SEE ASSOCIATED TEMPO GROUPS. STRONG GUSTY SW WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY KAVP-KELM-KBGM. THE
CONVECTIVE WAVE WILL PRECEDE THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT BY A COUPLE
HOURS OR SO...THUS BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINE...SCT SHOWERS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT /SEVERAL CASES FUEL
ALT...AND FOR KBGM IFR CIG/. MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR...THOUGH STILL SOME SCT
-SHRA ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...FOR KSYR-KRME LOCALIZED ESE SURFACE WIND WILL BE IN
FAIR OPPOSITION TO SSW 35 KT JET AT 2 KFT AGL...THUS LLWS FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE WIND FIELDS WEAKEN BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SSE-S TO VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN FOR ALL
TERMINALS VEERING WSE-W 8-10 KTS...WITH GUSTS 16-20 KTS DURING
THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 201946
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
346 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD
MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
345 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NYS ATTM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
PRIMARILY THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
HELICITY WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
ALTHOUGH SFC BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE SYR AREA. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME
THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN NORTHEAST PA AT THE AVP TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MSE/PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 201946
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
346 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD
MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
345 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NYS ATTM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
PRIMARILY THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
HELICITY WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
ALTHOUGH SFC BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE SYR AREA. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME
THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN NORTHEAST PA AT THE AVP TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MSE/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 201944
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
344 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD
MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE SYR AREA. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME
THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN NORTHEAST PA AT THE AVP TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MSE/PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 201918
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
318 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS MIDDAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND INITIAL SHORT WAVE HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH ACTIVITY ON RADAR DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON PERIOD
WITH BE PRECIP FREE WITH JUST A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN
DUE TO SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING SFC
OCCLUSION. SFC WARM FRONT MAY REACH THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA BY LATE DAY WHICH WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE IS REALIZED BY LATE DAY, THE
WIND FIELDS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

4 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT WITH FIRST A WARM FRONT GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WATCHING STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING THEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN. ALL 3 COULD
BE AN ISSUE.

FIRST WITH THE CURRENT RAIN. CURRENT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
SO FAR. WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA
MOVING NE, SE SECTION OF CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL SE WINDS IS PUSHING THIS MOISTURE UP INTO
THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. A SOUTHERLY LL JET OF 60 TO 80
KTS IS BEING SHOWN ON OUR RADAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE RAINED OUT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL.

NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY CENT NY.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP
HEAT UP THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LLJ DROPS TO 40 BUT AN UL JET
COMES IN FROM SW. ALSO UL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING MIDDAY
OVER WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. THIS MOVES EAST INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z THEN TO SYR BGM AVP AROUND 00Z. THIS ALL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH COULD HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO WIND BUT LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
MARGINAL. ONEIDA EXCLUDED AND LUZERNE IS NOW IN SLIGHT CHANCE. 2
PERCENT TORNADO LINE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND INTO MOSTLY LUZERNE
COUNTY. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WHERE A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORT TERM. STACKED
LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME
SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WITH WEAK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LOW QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

SHOWERS DIURNALLY FORCED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THEN DECREASE AT NIGHT.
ALSO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES CONDUCIVE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH ONE
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT LATE WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SO ANY FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE SYR AREA. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME
THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN NORTHEAST PA AT THE AVP TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MSE/PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 201918
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
318 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS MIDDAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND INITIAL SHORT WAVE HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH ACTIVITY ON RADAR DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON PERIOD
WITH BE PRECIP FREE WITH JUST A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN
DUE TO SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING SFC
OCCLUSION. SFC WARM FRONT MAY REACH THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA BY LATE DAY WHICH WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE IS REALIZED BY LATE DAY, THE
WIND FIELDS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

4 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT WITH FIRST A WARM FRONT GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WATCHING STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING THEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN. ALL 3 COULD
BE AN ISSUE.

FIRST WITH THE CURRENT RAIN. CURRENT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
SO FAR. WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA
MOVING NE, SE SECTION OF CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL SE WINDS IS PUSHING THIS MOISTURE UP INTO
THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. A SOUTHERLY LL JET OF 60 TO 80
KTS IS BEING SHOWN ON OUR RADAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE RAINED OUT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL.

NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY CENT NY.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP
HEAT UP THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LLJ DROPS TO 40 BUT AN UL JET
COMES IN FROM SW. ALSO UL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING MIDDAY
OVER WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. THIS MOVES EAST INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z THEN TO SYR BGM AVP AROUND 00Z. THIS ALL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH COULD HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO WIND BUT LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
MARGINAL. ONEIDA EXCLUDED AND LUZERNE IS NOW IN SLIGHT CHANCE. 2
PERCENT TORNADO LINE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND INTO MOSTLY LUZERNE
COUNTY. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WHERE A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORT TERM. STACKED
LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME
SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WITH WEAK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LOW QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

SHOWERS DIURNALLY FORCED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THEN DECREASE AT NIGHT.
ALSO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES CONDUCIVE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH ONE
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT LATE WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SO ANY FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE SYR AREA. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME
THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN NORTHEAST PA AT THE AVP TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MSE/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 201918
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
318 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS MIDDAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND INITIAL SHORT WAVE HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH ACTIVITY ON RADAR DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON PERIOD
WITH BE PRECIP FREE WITH JUST A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN
DUE TO SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING SFC
OCCLUSION. SFC WARM FRONT MAY REACH THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA BY LATE DAY WHICH WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE IS REALIZED BY LATE DAY, THE
WIND FIELDS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

4 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT WITH FIRST A WARM FRONT GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WATCHING STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING THEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN. ALL 3 COULD
BE AN ISSUE.

FIRST WITH THE CURRENT RAIN. CURRENT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
SO FAR. WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA
MOVING NE, SE SECTION OF CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL SE WINDS IS PUSHING THIS MOISTURE UP INTO
THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. A SOUTHERLY LL JET OF 60 TO 80
KTS IS BEING SHOWN ON OUR RADAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE RAINED OUT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL.

NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY CENT NY.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP
HEAT UP THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LLJ DROPS TO 40 BUT AN UL JET
COMES IN FROM SW. ALSO UL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING MIDDAY
OVER WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. THIS MOVES EAST INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z THEN TO SYR BGM AVP AROUND 00Z. THIS ALL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH COULD HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO WIND BUT LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
MARGINAL. ONEIDA EXCLUDED AND LUZERNE IS NOW IN SLIGHT CHANCE. 2
PERCENT TORNADO LINE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND INTO MOSTLY LUZERNE
COUNTY. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WHERE A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORT TERM. STACKED
LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME
SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WITH WEAK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LOW QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

SHOWERS DIURNALLY FORCED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THEN DECREASE AT NIGHT.
ALSO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES CONDUCIVE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH ONE
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT LATE WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SO ANY FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE SYR AREA. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME
THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN NORTHEAST PA AT THE AVP TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MSE/PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 201821
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS MIDDAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND INITIAL SHORT WAVE HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH ACTIVITY ON RADAR DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON PERIOD
WITH BE PRECIP FREE WITH JUST A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN
DUE TO SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING SFC
OCCLUSION. SFC WARM FRONT MAY REACH THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA BY LATE DAY WHICH WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE IS REALIZED BY LATE DAY, THE
WIND FIELDS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

4 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT WITH FIRST A WARM FRONT GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WATCHING STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING THEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN. ALL 3 COULD
BE AN ISSUE.

FIRST WITH THE CURRENT RAIN. CURRENT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
SO FAR. WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA
MOVING NE, SE SECTION OF CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL SE WINDS IS PUSHING THIS MOISTURE UP INTO
THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. A SOUTHERLY LL JET OF 60 TO 80
KTS IS BEING SHOWN ON OUR RADAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE RAINED OUT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL.

NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY CENT NY.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP
HEAT UP THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LLJ DROPS TO 40 BUT AN UL JET
COMES IN FROM SW. ALSO UL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING MIDDAY
OVER WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. THIS MOVES EAST INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z THEN TO SYR BGM AVP AROUND 00Z. THIS ALL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH COULD HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO WIND BUT LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
MARGINAL. ONEIDA EXCLUDED AND LUZERNE IS NOW IN SLIGHT CHANCE. 2
PERCENT TORNADO LINE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND INTO MOSTLY LUZERNE
COUNTY. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WHERE A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORT TERM. STACKED
LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME
SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WITH WEAK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LOW QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

SHOWERS DIURNALLY FORCED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THEN DECREASE AT NIGHT.
ALSO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES CONDUCIVE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH ONE
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT LATE WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SO ANY FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS WITH
THIS UPDATE AS MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE COOL, GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TO NOVA SCOTIA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS
IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER
MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE SYR AREA. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME
THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN NORTHEAST PA AT THE AVP TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...MSE/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 201821
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS MIDDAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND INITIAL SHORT WAVE HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH ACTIVITY ON RADAR DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON PERIOD
WITH BE PRECIP FREE WITH JUST A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN
DUE TO SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING SFC
OCCLUSION. SFC WARM FRONT MAY REACH THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA BY LATE DAY WHICH WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE IS REALIZED BY LATE DAY, THE
WIND FIELDS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

4 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT WITH FIRST A WARM FRONT GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WATCHING STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING THEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN. ALL 3 COULD
BE AN ISSUE.

FIRST WITH THE CURRENT RAIN. CURRENT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
SO FAR. WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA
MOVING NE, SE SECTION OF CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL SE WINDS IS PUSHING THIS MOISTURE UP INTO
THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. A SOUTHERLY LL JET OF 60 TO 80
KTS IS BEING SHOWN ON OUR RADAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE RAINED OUT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL.

NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY CENT NY.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP
HEAT UP THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LLJ DROPS TO 40 BUT AN UL JET
COMES IN FROM SW. ALSO UL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING MIDDAY
OVER WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. THIS MOVES EAST INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z THEN TO SYR BGM AVP AROUND 00Z. THIS ALL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH COULD HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO WIND BUT LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
MARGINAL. ONEIDA EXCLUDED AND LUZERNE IS NOW IN SLIGHT CHANCE. 2
PERCENT TORNADO LINE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND INTO MOSTLY LUZERNE
COUNTY. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WHERE A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORT TERM. STACKED
LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME
SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WITH WEAK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LOW QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

SHOWERS DIURNALLY FORCED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THEN DECREASE AT NIGHT.
ALSO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES CONDUCIVE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH ONE
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT LATE WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SO ANY FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS WITH
THIS UPDATE AS MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE COOL, GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TO NOVA SCOTIA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS
IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER
MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE SYR AREA. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME
THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN NORTHEAST PA AT THE AVP TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...MSE/PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 201821
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS MIDDAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND INITIAL SHORT WAVE HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH ACTIVITY ON RADAR DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON PERIOD
WITH BE PRECIP FREE WITH JUST A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN
DUE TO SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING SFC
OCCLUSION. SFC WARM FRONT MAY REACH THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA BY LATE DAY WHICH WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE IS REALIZED BY LATE DAY, THE
WIND FIELDS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

4 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT WITH FIRST A WARM FRONT GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WATCHING STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING THEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN. ALL 3 COULD
BE AN ISSUE.

FIRST WITH THE CURRENT RAIN. CURRENT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
SO FAR. WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA
MOVING NE, SE SECTION OF CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL SE WINDS IS PUSHING THIS MOISTURE UP INTO
THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. A SOUTHERLY LL JET OF 60 TO 80
KTS IS BEING SHOWN ON OUR RADAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE RAINED OUT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL.

NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY CENT NY.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP
HEAT UP THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LLJ DROPS TO 40 BUT AN UL JET
COMES IN FROM SW. ALSO UL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING MIDDAY
OVER WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. THIS MOVES EAST INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z THEN TO SYR BGM AVP AROUND 00Z. THIS ALL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH COULD HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO WIND BUT LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
MARGINAL. ONEIDA EXCLUDED AND LUZERNE IS NOW IN SLIGHT CHANCE. 2
PERCENT TORNADO LINE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND INTO MOSTLY LUZERNE
COUNTY. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WHERE A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORT TERM. STACKED
LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME
SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WITH WEAK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LOW QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

SHOWERS DIURNALLY FORCED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THEN DECREASE AT NIGHT.
ALSO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES CONDUCIVE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH ONE
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT LATE WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SO ANY FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS WITH
THIS UPDATE AS MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE COOL, GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TO NOVA SCOTIA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS
IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER
MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE SYR AREA. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME
THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN NORTHEAST PA AT THE AVP TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...MSE/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 201821
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS MIDDAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND INITIAL SHORT WAVE HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH ACTIVITY ON RADAR DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON PERIOD
WITH BE PRECIP FREE WITH JUST A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN
DUE TO SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING SFC
OCCLUSION. SFC WARM FRONT MAY REACH THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA BY LATE DAY WHICH WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE IS REALIZED BY LATE DAY, THE
WIND FIELDS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

4 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT WITH FIRST A WARM FRONT GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WATCHING STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING THEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN. ALL 3 COULD
BE AN ISSUE.

FIRST WITH THE CURRENT RAIN. CURRENT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
SO FAR. WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA
MOVING NE, SE SECTION OF CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL SE WINDS IS PUSHING THIS MOISTURE UP INTO
THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. A SOUTHERLY LL JET OF 60 TO 80
KTS IS BEING SHOWN ON OUR RADAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE RAINED OUT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL.

NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY CENT NY.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP
HEAT UP THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LLJ DROPS TO 40 BUT AN UL JET
COMES IN FROM SW. ALSO UL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING MIDDAY
OVER WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. THIS MOVES EAST INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z THEN TO SYR BGM AVP AROUND 00Z. THIS ALL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH COULD HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO WIND BUT LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
MARGINAL. ONEIDA EXCLUDED AND LUZERNE IS NOW IN SLIGHT CHANCE. 2
PERCENT TORNADO LINE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND INTO MOSTLY LUZERNE
COUNTY. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WHERE A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORT TERM. STACKED
LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME
SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WITH WEAK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LOW QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

SHOWERS DIURNALLY FORCED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THEN DECREASE AT NIGHT.
ALSO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES CONDUCIVE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH ONE
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT LATE WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SO ANY FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS WITH
THIS UPDATE AS MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE COOL, GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TO NOVA SCOTIA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS
IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER
MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE SYR AREA. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME
THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN NORTHEAST PA AT THE AVP TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...MSE/PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 201454
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1054 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS MIDDAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND INITIAL SHORT WAVE HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH ACTIVITY ON RADAR DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON PERIOD
WITH BE PRECIP FREE WITH JUST A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN
DUE TO SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING SFC
OCCLUSION. SFC WARM FRONT MAY REACH THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA BY LATE DAY WHICH WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE IS REALIZED BY LATE DAY, THE
WIND FIELDS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

4 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT WITH FIRST A WARM FRONT GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WATCHING STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING THEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN. ALL 3 COULD
BE AN ISSUE.

FIRST WITH THE CURRENT RAIN. CURRENT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
SO FAR. WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA
MOVING NE, SE SECTION OF CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL SE WINDS IS PUSHING THIS MOISTURE UP INTO
THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. A SOUTHERLY LL JET OF 60 TO 80
KTS IS BEING SHOWN ON OUR RADAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE RAINED OUT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL.

NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY CENT NY.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP
HEAT UP THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LLJ DROPS TO 40 BUT AN UL JET
COMES IN FROM SW. ALSO UL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING MIDDAY
OVER WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. THIS MOVES EAST INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z THEN TO SYR BGM AVP AROUND 00Z. THIS ALL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH COULD HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO WIND BUT LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
MARGINAL. ONEIDA EXCLUDED AND LUZERNE IS NOW IN SLIGHT CHANCE. 2
PERCENT TORNADO LINE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND INTO MOSTLY LUZERNE
COUNTY. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WHERE A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORT TERM. STACKED
LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME
SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WITH WEAK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LOW QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

SHOWERS DIURNALLY FORCED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THEN DECREASE AT NIGHT.
ALSO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES CONDUCIVE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH ONE
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT LATE WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SO ANY FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS WITH
THIS UPDATE AS MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE COOL, GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TO NOVA SCOTIA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS
IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER
MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG WINDS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE THIS MORNING HOWEVER MOST SITES, EXCEPT KSYR, WILL
ALSO SEE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CIGS/VIS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. BY MIDDAY THE RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST ALONG
WITH THE LLJ / WIND SHEAR AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.

FOLLOWING THE BREAK IN PRECIP, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST NEAR 0Z BRINGING FURTHER
RESTRICTIONS...LIKELY TO AT LEAST MVFR FOR MOST SITES. WHILE THE
TREND WILL BE FOR THIS LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MORE
STABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA WE HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDER FOR KELM/KBGM/KAVP HOWEVER STORMS CAN`T BE RULED
OUT FOR THE THREE NORTHERN SITES AS WELL. STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND EVEN HAIL ESPECIALLY FOR
KELK/KBGM/KAVP. THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NEAR DAWN.

STRONG SE WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 35 KNOTS THIS MORNING, STRONGEST
FOR KBGM/KITH/KSYR, BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.


.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 201454
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1054 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS MIDDAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND INITIAL SHORT WAVE HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH ACTIVITY ON RADAR DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON PERIOD
WITH BE PRECIP FREE WITH JUST A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN
DUE TO SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING SFC
OCCLUSION. SFC WARM FRONT MAY REACH THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA BY LATE DAY WHICH WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE IS REALIZED BY LATE DAY, THE
WIND FIELDS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

4 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT WITH FIRST A WARM FRONT GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WATCHING STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING THEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN. ALL 3 COULD
BE AN ISSUE.

FIRST WITH THE CURRENT RAIN. CURRENT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
SO FAR. WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA
MOVING NE, SE SECTION OF CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL SE WINDS IS PUSHING THIS MOISTURE UP INTO
THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. A SOUTHERLY LL JET OF 60 TO 80
KTS IS BEING SHOWN ON OUR RADAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE RAINED OUT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL.

NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY CENT NY.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP
HEAT UP THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LLJ DROPS TO 40 BUT AN UL JET
COMES IN FROM SW. ALSO UL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING MIDDAY
OVER WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. THIS MOVES EAST INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z THEN TO SYR BGM AVP AROUND 00Z. THIS ALL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH COULD HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO WIND BUT LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
MARGINAL. ONEIDA EXCLUDED AND LUZERNE IS NOW IN SLIGHT CHANCE. 2
PERCENT TORNADO LINE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND INTO MOSTLY LUZERNE
COUNTY. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WHERE A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORT TERM. STACKED
LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME
SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WITH WEAK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LOW QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

SHOWERS DIURNALLY FORCED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THEN DECREASE AT NIGHT.
ALSO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES CONDUCIVE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH ONE
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT LATE WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SO ANY FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS WITH
THIS UPDATE AS MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE COOL, GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TO NOVA SCOTIA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS
IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER
MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG WINDS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE THIS MORNING HOWEVER MOST SITES, EXCEPT KSYR, WILL
ALSO SEE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CIGS/VIS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. BY MIDDAY THE RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST ALONG
WITH THE LLJ / WIND SHEAR AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.

FOLLOWING THE BREAK IN PRECIP, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST NEAR 0Z BRINGING FURTHER
RESTRICTIONS...LIKELY TO AT LEAST MVFR FOR MOST SITES. WHILE THE
TREND WILL BE FOR THIS LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MORE
STABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA WE HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDER FOR KELM/KBGM/KAVP HOWEVER STORMS CAN`T BE RULED
OUT FOR THE THREE NORTHERN SITES AS WELL. STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND EVEN HAIL ESPECIALLY FOR
KELK/KBGM/KAVP. THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NEAR DAWN.

STRONG SE WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 35 KNOTS THIS MORNING, STRONGEST
FOR KBGM/KITH/KSYR, BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.


.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 201118
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
718 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF
LULL IN RAIN MIDDAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IT WILL BE UNSETTLED
AND COOL TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT WITH FIRST A WARM FRONT GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WATCHING STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING THEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN. ALL 3 COULD
BE AN ISSUE.

FIRST WITH THE CURRENT RAIN. CURRENT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
SO FAR. WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA
MOVING NE, SE SECTION OF CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL SE WINDS IS PUSHING THIS MOISTURE UP INTO
THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. A SOUTHERLY LL JET OF 60 TO 80
KTS IS BEING SHOWN ON OUR RADAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE RAINED OUT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL.

NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY CENT NY.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP
HEAT UP THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LLJ DROPS TO 40 BUT AN UL JET
COMES IN FROM SW. ALSO UL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING MIDDAY
OVER WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. THIS MOVES EAST INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z THEN TO SYR BGM AVP AROUND 00Z. THIS ALL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH COULD HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO WIND BUT LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
MARGINAL. ONEIDA EXCLUDED AND LUZERNE IS NOW IN SLIGHT CHANCE. 2
PERCENT TORNADO LINE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND INTO MOSTLY LUZERNE
COUNTY. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WHERE A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORT TERM. STACKED
LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME
SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WITH WEAK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LOW QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

SHOWERS DIURNALLY FORCED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THEN DECREASE AT NIGHT.
ALSO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES CONDUCIVE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH ONE
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT LATE WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SO ANY FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS WITH
THIS UPDATE AS MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE COOL, GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TO NOVA SCOTIA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS
IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER
MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG WINDS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE THIS MORNING HOWEVER MOST SITES, EXCEPT KSYR, WILL
ALSO SEE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CIGS/VIS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. BY MIDDAY THE RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST ALONG
WITH THE LLJ / WIND SHEAR AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.

FOLLOWING THE BREAK IN PRECIP, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST NEAR 0Z BRINGING FURTHER
RESTRICTIONS...LIKELY TO AT LEAST MVFR FOR MOST SITES. WHILE THE
TREND WILL BE FOR THIS LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MORE
STABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA WE HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDER FOR KELM/KBGM/KAVP HOWEVER STORMS CAN`T BE RULED
OUT FOR THE THREE NORTHERN SITES AS WELL. STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND EVEN HAIL ESPECIALLY FOR
KELK/KBGM/KAVP. THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NEAR DAWN.

STRONG SE WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 35 KNOTS THIS MORNING, STRONGEST
FOR KBGM/KITH/KSYR, BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.


.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 201118
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
718 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF
LULL IN RAIN MIDDAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IT WILL BE UNSETTLED
AND COOL TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT WITH FIRST A WARM FRONT GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WATCHING STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING THEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN. ALL 3 COULD
BE AN ISSUE.

FIRST WITH THE CURRENT RAIN. CURRENT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
SO FAR. WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA
MOVING NE, SE SECTION OF CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL SE WINDS IS PUSHING THIS MOISTURE UP INTO
THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. A SOUTHERLY LL JET OF 60 TO 80
KTS IS BEING SHOWN ON OUR RADAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE RAINED OUT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL.

NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY CENT NY.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP
HEAT UP THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LLJ DROPS TO 40 BUT AN UL JET
COMES IN FROM SW. ALSO UL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING MIDDAY
OVER WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. THIS MOVES EAST INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z THEN TO SYR BGM AVP AROUND 00Z. THIS ALL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH COULD HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO WIND BUT LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
MARGINAL. ONEIDA EXCLUDED AND LUZERNE IS NOW IN SLIGHT CHANCE. 2
PERCENT TORNADO LINE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND INTO MOSTLY LUZERNE
COUNTY. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WHERE A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORT TERM. STACKED
LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME
SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WITH WEAK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LOW QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

SHOWERS DIURNALLY FORCED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THEN DECREASE AT NIGHT.
ALSO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES CONDUCIVE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH ONE
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT LATE WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SO ANY FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS WITH
THIS UPDATE AS MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE COOL, GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TO NOVA SCOTIA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS
IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER
MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG WINDS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE THIS MORNING HOWEVER MOST SITES, EXCEPT KSYR, WILL
ALSO SEE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CIGS/VIS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. BY MIDDAY THE RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST ALONG
WITH THE LLJ / WIND SHEAR AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.

FOLLOWING THE BREAK IN PRECIP, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST NEAR 0Z BRINGING FURTHER
RESTRICTIONS...LIKELY TO AT LEAST MVFR FOR MOST SITES. WHILE THE
TREND WILL BE FOR THIS LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MORE
STABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA WE HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDER FOR KELM/KBGM/KAVP HOWEVER STORMS CAN`T BE RULED
OUT FOR THE THREE NORTHERN SITES AS WELL. STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND EVEN HAIL ESPECIALLY FOR
KELK/KBGM/KAVP. THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NEAR DAWN.

STRONG SE WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 35 KNOTS THIS MORNING, STRONGEST
FOR KBGM/KITH/KSYR, BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.


.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 201118
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
718 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF
LULL IN RAIN MIDDAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IT WILL BE UNSETTLED
AND COOL TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT WITH FIRST A WARM FRONT GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WATCHING STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING THEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN. ALL 3 COULD
BE AN ISSUE.

FIRST WITH THE CURRENT RAIN. CURRENT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
SO FAR. WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA
MOVING NE, SE SECTION OF CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL SE WINDS IS PUSHING THIS MOISTURE UP INTO
THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. A SOUTHERLY LL JET OF 60 TO 80
KTS IS BEING SHOWN ON OUR RADAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE RAINED OUT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL.

NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY CENT NY.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP
HEAT UP THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LLJ DROPS TO 40 BUT AN UL JET
COMES IN FROM SW. ALSO UL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING MIDDAY
OVER WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. THIS MOVES EAST INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z THEN TO SYR BGM AVP AROUND 00Z. THIS ALL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH COULD HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO WIND BUT LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
MARGINAL. ONEIDA EXCLUDED AND LUZERNE IS NOW IN SLIGHT CHANCE. 2
PERCENT TORNADO LINE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND INTO MOSTLY LUZERNE
COUNTY. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WHERE A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORT TERM. STACKED
LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME
SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WITH WEAK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LOW QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

SHOWERS DIURNALLY FORCED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THEN DECREASE AT NIGHT.
ALSO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES CONDUCIVE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH ONE
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT LATE WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SO ANY FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS WITH
THIS UPDATE AS MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE COOL, GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TO NOVA SCOTIA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS
IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER
MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG WINDS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE THIS MORNING HOWEVER MOST SITES, EXCEPT KSYR, WILL
ALSO SEE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CIGS/VIS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. BY MIDDAY THE RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST ALONG
WITH THE LLJ / WIND SHEAR AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.

FOLLOWING THE BREAK IN PRECIP, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST NEAR 0Z BRINGING FURTHER
RESTRICTIONS...LIKELY TO AT LEAST MVFR FOR MOST SITES. WHILE THE
TREND WILL BE FOR THIS LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MORE
STABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA WE HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDER FOR KELM/KBGM/KAVP HOWEVER STORMS CAN`T BE RULED
OUT FOR THE THREE NORTHERN SITES AS WELL. STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND EVEN HAIL ESPECIALLY FOR
KELK/KBGM/KAVP. THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NEAR DAWN.

STRONG SE WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 35 KNOTS THIS MORNING, STRONGEST
FOR KBGM/KITH/KSYR, BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.


.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 200904
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
504 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF
LULL IN RAIN MIDDAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IT WILL BE UNSETTLED
AND COOL TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT WITH FIRST A WARM FRONT GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WATCHING STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING THEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN. ALL 3 COULD
BE AN ISSUE.

FIRST WITH THE CURRENT RAIN. CURRENT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
SO FAR. WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA
MOVING NE, SE SECTION OF CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL SE WINDS IS PUSHING THIS MOISTURE UP INTO
THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. A SOUTHERLY LL JET OF 60 TO 80
KTS IS BEING SHOWN ON OUR RADAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE RAINED OUT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL.

NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY CENT NY.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP
HEAT UP THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LLJ DROPS TO 40 BUT AN UL JET
COMES IN FROM SW. ALSO UL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING MIDDAY
OVER WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. THIS MOVES EAST INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z THEN TO SYR BGM AVP AROUND 00Z. THIS ALL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH COULD HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO WIND BUT LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
MARGINAL. ONEIDA EXCLUDED AND LUZERNE IS NOW IN SLIGHT CHANCE. 2
PERCENT TORNADO LINE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND INTO MOSTLY LUZERNE
COUNTY. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WHERE A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORT TERM. STACKED
LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME
SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WITH WEAK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LOW QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

SHOWERS DIURNALLY FORCED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THEN DECREASE AT NIGHT.
ALSO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES CONDUCIVE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH ONE
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT LATE WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SO ANY FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS WITH
THIS UPDATE AS MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE COOL, GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TO NOVA SCOTIA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS
IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER
MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MON UPDATE... THE MOST SIG ISSUE THIS PD IS LIKELY TO BE THE
GUSTY SFC WINDS/LLWS...SPCLY LTR TNT AND MON MRNG. GIVEN AN
EXPECTED SE FLOW...KSYR/KITH/KBGM ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE
STGST/MOST PERSISTENT GUSTS...WITH LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS (30-35 KT
INDICATED). LLWS WILL ESPECIALLY BE A CONCERN AT KELM/KAVP...WITH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SFC AND
2000 FEET AGL (PROJECTED WINDS AT THE 2000 FOOT LVL OF 50-60 KT)
HOWEVER WE HAVE ADDED IT FOR THE OTHER SITES AS WELL WITH THIS
UPDATE AS CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET.

VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PD. SOME RESTRICTIONS
ARE PSBL MON MRNG...WHEN A BAND OF STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE RGN. MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
(ROUGHLY 08-16Z)...WITH KRME/KBGM/KITH THE MOST PROBABLE SITES TO
BE IMPACTED.

FOR MOST OF MON AFTN...VFR SHOULD RETURN...AS A LULL IN PCPN IS
EXPECTED. LATE IN THE DAY (AFTER 21Z)...A LN OF SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AGN PSBL. ANY
STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH EVEN THE RISK OF
HAIL. FOR THE TIME BEING...FCST RANGE (OUT NEARLY 18 HRS) AND
UNCERTAIN COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TERMINAL
FCSTS BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE FOR KELM/KAVP/KBGM.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 200904
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
504 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF
LULL IN RAIN MIDDAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IT WILL BE UNSETTLED
AND COOL TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT WITH FIRST A WARM FRONT GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WATCHING STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING THEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN. ALL 3 COULD
BE AN ISSUE.

FIRST WITH THE CURRENT RAIN. CURRENT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
SO FAR. WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA
MOVING NE, SE SECTION OF CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL SE WINDS IS PUSHING THIS MOISTURE UP INTO
THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. A SOUTHERLY LL JET OF 60 TO 80
KTS IS BEING SHOWN ON OUR RADAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE RAINED OUT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL.

NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY CENT NY.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP
HEAT UP THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LLJ DROPS TO 40 BUT AN UL JET
COMES IN FROM SW. ALSO UL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING MIDDAY
OVER WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. THIS MOVES EAST INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z THEN TO SYR BGM AVP AROUND 00Z. THIS ALL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH COULD HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO WIND BUT LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
MARGINAL. ONEIDA EXCLUDED AND LUZERNE IS NOW IN SLIGHT CHANCE. 2
PERCENT TORNADO LINE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND INTO MOSTLY LUZERNE
COUNTY. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WHERE A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORT TERM. STACKED
LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME
SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WITH WEAK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LOW QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

SHOWERS DIURNALLY FORCED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THEN DECREASE AT NIGHT.
ALSO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES CONDUCIVE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH ONE
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT LATE WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SO ANY FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS WITH
THIS UPDATE AS MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE COOL, GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TO NOVA SCOTIA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS
IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER
MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MON UPDATE... THE MOST SIG ISSUE THIS PD IS LIKELY TO BE THE
GUSTY SFC WINDS/LLWS...SPCLY LTR TNT AND MON MRNG. GIVEN AN
EXPECTED SE FLOW...KSYR/KITH/KBGM ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE
STGST/MOST PERSISTENT GUSTS...WITH LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS (30-35 KT
INDICATED). LLWS WILL ESPECIALLY BE A CONCERN AT KELM/KAVP...WITH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SFC AND
2000 FEET AGL (PROJECTED WINDS AT THE 2000 FOOT LVL OF 50-60 KT)
HOWEVER WE HAVE ADDED IT FOR THE OTHER SITES AS WELL WITH THIS
UPDATE AS CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET.

VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PD. SOME RESTRICTIONS
ARE PSBL MON MRNG...WHEN A BAND OF STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE RGN. MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
(ROUGHLY 08-16Z)...WITH KRME/KBGM/KITH THE MOST PROBABLE SITES TO
BE IMPACTED.

FOR MOST OF MON AFTN...VFR SHOULD RETURN...AS A LULL IN PCPN IS
EXPECTED. LATE IN THE DAY (AFTER 21Z)...A LN OF SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AGN PSBL. ANY
STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH EVEN THE RISK OF
HAIL. FOR THE TIME BEING...FCST RANGE (OUT NEARLY 18 HRS) AND
UNCERTAIN COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TERMINAL
FCSTS BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE FOR KELM/KAVP/KBGM.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 200733
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
333 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN MIDDAY MONDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THAT TIME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND
VERY COOL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
940 PM UPDATE...
TIMING OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. I TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT
WIND GRIDS A BIT. WE STILL HAVE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ON THE HILLTOPS
ABOVE 1500 FEET. I INCREASED WIND IN THE LAKE PLAIN, SHOWING SOME
GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30S AT KSYR. RUC SOUNDINGS SEEM A BIT LOW HERE
GIVEN FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPING AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOWING
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOWER 20S. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS AFD IS
BELOW...


300 PM UPDATE...

A BEAUTIFUL END TO OUR WEEKEND ALBEIT A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR SO
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. I HOPE YOU ENJOYED THE WEEKEND
BECAUSE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH DOESN`T LOOK ALL
THAT GOOD.

WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THOSE CHANGES IN THE FORM OF SOME
THIN WISPY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE ARE WELL AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW OVER ILLINOIS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WELL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES BUT A QUICK SHOT OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY FOR EVERYONE.

THE BIG STORY TONIGHT MAY BE THE WIND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT FAVOR A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. WHILE WE ARE
VERY STABLE JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
TEMPER WINDS A BIT, STRONG WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ON THE HILLTOPS. IN GENERAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH
ARE LIKELY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF US. FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. THIS INCLUDES THE CATSKILLS, HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEPA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE HILLS SOUTH
OF SYRACUSE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 40
MPH ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SEMPRONIUS, POMPEY, GEORGETOWN, IN THE
FAVORED SOUTHEAST FLOW AREAS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE.

MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS THE STEADIER RAIN SLIDING EAST AND
PERHAPS EVEN OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDDAY. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY GIVE US JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY,
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME SUN, TO COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING DURING THE EVENING FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK HAS MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK TOWARD OUR AREA AND JUST BRUSHES
SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY. IN ADDITION A MARGINAL RISK (OLD SEE TEXT
FROM PAST YEARS) IS NOW UP TO NEAR THE NY STATE THRUWAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST. SHEAR VALUES ARE
GOOD BUT IT WILL COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE SEVERE RISK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
345 PM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ALL HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL
OF A SQUALL LINE BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY AND 03Z TUESDAY ROUGHLY FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NEPA. ADJUSTED OUR CURRENT HWO TO
REFLECT THIS THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEPA, WHICH IS CLOSE TO
WHAT SPC IS FORECASTING FOR SEVERE RISK.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT, THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CLOSED
UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WE WILL SEE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FILTER INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS TUESDAY (MID TO UPPER 50S) BUT THEN BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S
FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS WILL
SEE JUST RAIN SHOWERS. 850 TEMPS DO DROP BELOW ZERO BY WED MORNING
SO A STRAY FLAKE COULDN`T BE RULED OUT IN CNY EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT THE APPRECIABLE COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS WITH
THIS UPDATE AS MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE COOL, GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TO NOVA SCOTIA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS
IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER
MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MON UPDATE... THE MOST SIG ISSUE THIS PD IS LIKELY TO BE THE
GUSTY SFC WINDS/LLWS...SPCLY LTR TNT AND MON MRNG. GIVEN AN
EXPECTED SE FLOW...KSYR/KITH/KBGM ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE
STGST/MOST PERSISTENT GUSTS...WITH LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS (30-35 KT
INDICATED). LLWS WILL ESPECIALLY BE A CONCERN AT KELM/KAVP...WITH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SFC AND
2000 FEET AGL (PROJECTED WINDS AT THE 2000 FOOT LVL OF 50-60 KT)
HOWEVER WE HAVE ADDED IT FOR THE OTHER SITES AS WELL WITH THIS
UPDATE AS CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET.

VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PD. SOME RESTRICTIONS
ARE PSBL MON MRNG...WHEN A BAND OF STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE RGN. MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
(ROUGHLY 08-16Z)...WITH KRME/KBGM/KITH THE MOST PROBABLE SITES TO
BE IMPACTED.

FOR MOST OF MON AFTN...VFR SHOULD RETURN...AS A LULL IN PCPN IS
EXPECTED. LATE IN THE DAY (AFTER 21Z)...A LN OF SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AGN PSBL. ANY
STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH EVEN THE RISK OF
HAIL. FOR THE TIME BEING...FCST RANGE (OUT NEARLY 18 HRS) AND
UNCERTAIN COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TERMINAL
FCSTS BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE FOR KELM/KAVP/KBGM.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 200733
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
333 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN MIDDAY MONDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THAT TIME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND
VERY COOL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
940 PM UPDATE...
TIMING OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. I TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT
WIND GRIDS A BIT. WE STILL HAVE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ON THE HILLTOPS
ABOVE 1500 FEET. I INCREASED WIND IN THE LAKE PLAIN, SHOWING SOME
GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30S AT KSYR. RUC SOUNDINGS SEEM A BIT LOW HERE
GIVEN FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPING AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOWING
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOWER 20S. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS AFD IS
BELOW...


300 PM UPDATE...

A BEAUTIFUL END TO OUR WEEKEND ALBEIT A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR SO
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. I HOPE YOU ENJOYED THE WEEKEND
BECAUSE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH DOESN`T LOOK ALL
THAT GOOD.

WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THOSE CHANGES IN THE FORM OF SOME
THIN WISPY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE ARE WELL AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW OVER ILLINOIS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WELL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES BUT A QUICK SHOT OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY FOR EVERYONE.

THE BIG STORY TONIGHT MAY BE THE WIND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT FAVOR A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. WHILE WE ARE
VERY STABLE JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
TEMPER WINDS A BIT, STRONG WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ON THE HILLTOPS. IN GENERAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH
ARE LIKELY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF US. FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. THIS INCLUDES THE CATSKILLS, HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEPA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE HILLS SOUTH
OF SYRACUSE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 40
MPH ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SEMPRONIUS, POMPEY, GEORGETOWN, IN THE
FAVORED SOUTHEAST FLOW AREAS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE.

MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS THE STEADIER RAIN SLIDING EAST AND
PERHAPS EVEN OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDDAY. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY GIVE US JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY,
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME SUN, TO COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING DURING THE EVENING FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK HAS MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK TOWARD OUR AREA AND JUST BRUSHES
SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY. IN ADDITION A MARGINAL RISK (OLD SEE TEXT
FROM PAST YEARS) IS NOW UP TO NEAR THE NY STATE THRUWAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST. SHEAR VALUES ARE
GOOD BUT IT WILL COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE SEVERE RISK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
345 PM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ALL HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL
OF A SQUALL LINE BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY AND 03Z TUESDAY ROUGHLY FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NEPA. ADJUSTED OUR CURRENT HWO TO
REFLECT THIS THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEPA, WHICH IS CLOSE TO
WHAT SPC IS FORECASTING FOR SEVERE RISK.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT, THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CLOSED
UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WE WILL SEE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FILTER INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS TUESDAY (MID TO UPPER 50S) BUT THEN BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S
FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS WILL
SEE JUST RAIN SHOWERS. 850 TEMPS DO DROP BELOW ZERO BY WED MORNING
SO A STRAY FLAKE COULDN`T BE RULED OUT IN CNY EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT THE APPRECIABLE COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS WITH
THIS UPDATE AS MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE COOL, GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TO NOVA SCOTIA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS
IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER
MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MON UPDATE... THE MOST SIG ISSUE THIS PD IS LIKELY TO BE THE
GUSTY SFC WINDS/LLWS...SPCLY LTR TNT AND MON MRNG. GIVEN AN
EXPECTED SE FLOW...KSYR/KITH/KBGM ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE
STGST/MOST PERSISTENT GUSTS...WITH LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS (30-35 KT
INDICATED). LLWS WILL ESPECIALLY BE A CONCERN AT KELM/KAVP...WITH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SFC AND
2000 FEET AGL (PROJECTED WINDS AT THE 2000 FOOT LVL OF 50-60 KT)
HOWEVER WE HAVE ADDED IT FOR THE OTHER SITES AS WELL WITH THIS
UPDATE AS CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET.

VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PD. SOME RESTRICTIONS
ARE PSBL MON MRNG...WHEN A BAND OF STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE RGN. MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
(ROUGHLY 08-16Z)...WITH KRME/KBGM/KITH THE MOST PROBABLE SITES TO
BE IMPACTED.

FOR MOST OF MON AFTN...VFR SHOULD RETURN...AS A LULL IN PCPN IS
EXPECTED. LATE IN THE DAY (AFTER 21Z)...A LN OF SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AGN PSBL. ANY
STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH EVEN THE RISK OF
HAIL. FOR THE TIME BEING...FCST RANGE (OUT NEARLY 18 HRS) AND
UNCERTAIN COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TERMINAL
FCSTS BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE FOR KELM/KAVP/KBGM.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 200556
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN MIDDAY MONDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THAT TIME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND
VERY COOL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
940 PM UPDATE...
TIMING OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. I TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT
WIND GRIDS A BIT. WE STILL HAVE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ON THE HILLTOPS
ABOVE 1500 FEET. I INCREASED WIND IN THE LAKE PLAIN, SHOWING SOME
GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30S AT KSYR. RUC SOUNDINGS SEEM A BIT LOW HERE
GIVEN FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPING AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOWING
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOWER 20S. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS AFD IS
BELOW...


300 PM UPDATE...

A BEAUTIFUL END TO OUR WEEKEND ALBEIT A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR SO
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. I HOPE YOU ENJOYED THE WEEKEND
BECAUSE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH DOESN`T LOOK ALL
THAT GOOD.

WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THOSE CHANGES IN THE FORM OF SOME
THIN WISPY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE ARE WELL AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW OVER ILLINOIS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WELL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES BUT A QUICK SHOT OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY FOR EVERYONE.

THE BIG STORY TONIGHT MAY BE THE WIND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT FAVOR A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. WHILE WE ARE
VERY STABLE JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
TEMPER WINDS A BIT, STRONG WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ON THE HILLTOPS. IN GENERAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH
ARE LIKELY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF US. FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. THIS INCLUDES THE CATSKILLS, HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEPA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE HILLS SOUTH
OF SYRACUSE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 40
MPH ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SEMPRONIUS, POMPEY, GEORGETOWN, IN THE
FAVORED SOUTHEAST FLOW AREAS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE.

MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS THE STEADIER RAIN SLIDING EAST AND
PERHAPS EVEN OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDDAY. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY GIVE US JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY,
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME SUN, TO COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING DURING THE EVENING FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK HAS MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK TOWARD OUR AREA AND JUST BRUSHES
SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY. IN ADDITION A MARGINAL RISK (OLD SEE TEXT
FROM PAST YEARS) IS NOW UP TO NEAR THE NY STATE THRUWAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST. SHEAR VALUES ARE
GOOD BUT IT WILL COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE SEVERE RISK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ALL HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL
OF A SQUALL LINE BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY AND 03Z TUESDAY ROUGHLY FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NEPA. ADJUSTED OUR CURRENT HWO TO
REFLECT THIS THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEPA, WHICH IS CLOSE TO
WHAT SPC IS FORECASTING FOR SEVERE RISK.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT, THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CLOSED
UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WE WILL SEE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FILTER INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS TUESDAY (MID TO UPPER 50S) BUT THEN BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S
FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS WILL
SEE JUST RAIN SHOWERS. 850 TEMPS DO DROP BELOW ZERO BY WED MORNING
SO A STRAY FLAKE COULDN`T BE RULED OUT IN CNY EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT THE APPRECIABLE COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NOVA SCOTIA.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SFC
OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD POOL ALOFT AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS
WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MON UPDATE... THE MOST SIG ISSUE THIS PD IS LIKELY TO BE THE
GUSTY SFC WINDS/LLWS...SPCLY LTR TNT AND MON MRNG. GIVEN AN
EXPECTED SE FLOW...KSYR/KITH/KBGM ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE
STGST/MOST PERSISTENT GUSTS...WITH LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS (30-35 KT
INDICATED). LLWS WILL ESPECIALLY BE A CONCERN AT KELM/KAVP...WITH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SFC AND
2000 FEET AGL (PROJECTED WINDS AT THE 2000 FOOT LVL OF 50-60 KT)
HOWEVER WE HAVE ADDED IT FOR THE OTHER SITES AS WELL WITH THIS
UPDATE AS CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET.

VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PD. SOME RESTRICTIONS
ARE PSBL MON MRNG...WHEN A BAND OF STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE RGN. MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
(ROUGHLY 08-16Z)...WITH KRME/KBGM/KITH THE MOST PROBABLE SITES TO
BE IMPACTED.

FOR MOST OF MON AFTN...VFR SHOULD RETURN...AS A LULL IN PCPN IS
EXPECTED. LATE IN THE DAY (AFTER 21Z)...A LN OF SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AGN PSBL. ANY
STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH EVEN THE RISK OF
HAIL. FOR THE TIME BEING...FCST RANGE (OUT NEARLY 18 HRS) AND
UNCERTAIN COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TERMINAL
FCSTS BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE FOR KELM/KAVP/KBGM.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP
MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 200556
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN MIDDAY MONDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THAT TIME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND
VERY COOL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
940 PM UPDATE...
TIMING OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. I TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT
WIND GRIDS A BIT. WE STILL HAVE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ON THE HILLTOPS
ABOVE 1500 FEET. I INCREASED WIND IN THE LAKE PLAIN, SHOWING SOME
GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30S AT KSYR. RUC SOUNDINGS SEEM A BIT LOW HERE
GIVEN FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPING AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOWING
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOWER 20S. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS AFD IS
BELOW...


300 PM UPDATE...

A BEAUTIFUL END TO OUR WEEKEND ALBEIT A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR SO
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. I HOPE YOU ENJOYED THE WEEKEND
BECAUSE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH DOESN`T LOOK ALL
THAT GOOD.

WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THOSE CHANGES IN THE FORM OF SOME
THIN WISPY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE ARE WELL AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW OVER ILLINOIS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WELL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES BUT A QUICK SHOT OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY FOR EVERYONE.

THE BIG STORY TONIGHT MAY BE THE WIND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT FAVOR A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. WHILE WE ARE
VERY STABLE JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
TEMPER WINDS A BIT, STRONG WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ON THE HILLTOPS. IN GENERAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH
ARE LIKELY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF US. FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. THIS INCLUDES THE CATSKILLS, HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEPA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE HILLS SOUTH
OF SYRACUSE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 40
MPH ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SEMPRONIUS, POMPEY, GEORGETOWN, IN THE
FAVORED SOUTHEAST FLOW AREAS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE.

MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS THE STEADIER RAIN SLIDING EAST AND
PERHAPS EVEN OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDDAY. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY GIVE US JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY,
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME SUN, TO COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING DURING THE EVENING FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK HAS MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK TOWARD OUR AREA AND JUST BRUSHES
SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY. IN ADDITION A MARGINAL RISK (OLD SEE TEXT
FROM PAST YEARS) IS NOW UP TO NEAR THE NY STATE THRUWAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST. SHEAR VALUES ARE
GOOD BUT IT WILL COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE SEVERE RISK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ALL HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL
OF A SQUALL LINE BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY AND 03Z TUESDAY ROUGHLY FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NEPA. ADJUSTED OUR CURRENT HWO TO
REFLECT THIS THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEPA, WHICH IS CLOSE TO
WHAT SPC IS FORECASTING FOR SEVERE RISK.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT, THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CLOSED
UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WE WILL SEE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FILTER INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS TUESDAY (MID TO UPPER 50S) BUT THEN BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S
FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS WILL
SEE JUST RAIN SHOWERS. 850 TEMPS DO DROP BELOW ZERO BY WED MORNING
SO A STRAY FLAKE COULDN`T BE RULED OUT IN CNY EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT THE APPRECIABLE COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NOVA SCOTIA.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SFC
OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD POOL ALOFT AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS
WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MON UPDATE... THE MOST SIG ISSUE THIS PD IS LIKELY TO BE THE
GUSTY SFC WINDS/LLWS...SPCLY LTR TNT AND MON MRNG. GIVEN AN
EXPECTED SE FLOW...KSYR/KITH/KBGM ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE
STGST/MOST PERSISTENT GUSTS...WITH LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS (30-35 KT
INDICATED). LLWS WILL ESPECIALLY BE A CONCERN AT KELM/KAVP...WITH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SFC AND
2000 FEET AGL (PROJECTED WINDS AT THE 2000 FOOT LVL OF 50-60 KT)
HOWEVER WE HAVE ADDED IT FOR THE OTHER SITES AS WELL WITH THIS
UPDATE AS CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET.

VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PD. SOME RESTRICTIONS
ARE PSBL MON MRNG...WHEN A BAND OF STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE RGN. MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
(ROUGHLY 08-16Z)...WITH KRME/KBGM/KITH THE MOST PROBABLE SITES TO
BE IMPACTED.

FOR MOST OF MON AFTN...VFR SHOULD RETURN...AS A LULL IN PCPN IS
EXPECTED. LATE IN THE DAY (AFTER 21Z)...A LN OF SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AGN PSBL. ANY
STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH EVEN THE RISK OF
HAIL. FOR THE TIME BEING...FCST RANGE (OUT NEARLY 18 HRS) AND
UNCERTAIN COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TERMINAL
FCSTS BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE FOR KELM/KAVP/KBGM.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP
MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 200148
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
948 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN MIDDAY MONDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THAT TIME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND
VERY COOL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
940 PM UPDATE...
TIMING OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. I TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT
WIND GRIDS A BIT. WE STILL HAVE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ON THE HILLTOPS
ABOVE 1500 FEET. I INCREASED WIND IN THE LAKE PLAIN, SHOWING SOME
GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30S AT KSYR. RUC SOUNDINGS SEEM A BIT LOW HERE
GIVEN FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPING AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOWING
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOWER 20S. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS AFD IS
BELOW...


300 PM UPDATE...

A BEAUTIFUL END TO OUR WEEKEND ALBEIT A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR SO
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. I HOPE YOU ENJOYED THE WEEKEND
BECAUSE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH DOESN`T LOOK ALL
THAT GOOD.

WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THOSE CHANGES IN THE FORM OF SOME
THIN WISPY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE ARE WELL AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW OVER ILLINOIS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WELL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES BUT A QUICK SHOT OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY FOR EVERYONE.

THE BIG STORY TONIGHT MAY BE THE WIND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT FAVOR A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. WHILE WE ARE
VERY STABLE JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
TEMPER WINDS A BIT, STRONG WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ON THE HILLTOPS. IN GENERAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH
ARE LIKELY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF US. FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. THIS INCLUDES THE CATSKILLS, HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEPA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE HILLS SOUTH
OF SYRACUSE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 40
MPH ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SEMPRONIUS, POMPEY, GEORGETOWN, IN THE
FAVORED SOUTHEAST FLOW AREAS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE.

MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS THE STEADIER RAIN SLIDING EAST AND
PERHAPS EVEN OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDDAY. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY GIVE US JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY,
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME SUN, TO COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING DURING THE EVENING FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK HAS MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK TOWARD OUR AREA AND JUST BRUSHES
SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY. IN ADDITION A MARGINAL RISK (OLD SEE TEXT
FROM PAST YEARS) IS NOW UP TO NEAR THE NY STATE THRUWAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST. SHEAR VALUES ARE
GOOD BUT IT WILL COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE SEVERE RISK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ALL HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL
OF A SQUALL LINE BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY AND 03Z TUESDAY ROUGHLY FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NEPA. ADJUSTED OUR CURRENT HWO TO
REFLECT THIS THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEPA, WHICH IS CLOSE TO
WHAT SPC IS FORECASTING FOR SEVERE RISK.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT, THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CLOSED
UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WE WILL SEE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FILTER INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS TUESDAY (MID TO UPPER 50S) BUT THEN BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S
FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS WILL
SEE JUST RAIN SHOWERS. 850 TEMPS DO DROP BELOW ZERO BY WED MORNING
SO A STRAY FLAKE COULDN`T BE RULED OUT IN CNY EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT THE APPRECIABLE COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NOVA SCOTIA.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SFC
OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD POOL ALOFT AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS
WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MON UPDATE... THE MOST SIG ISSUE THIS PD IS LIKELY TO BE THE
GUSTY SFC WINDS/PSBL LLWS...SPCLY LTR TNT AND MON MRNG. GIVEN AN
EXPECTED SE FLOW...KSYR/KITH/KBGM ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE
STGST/MOST PERSISTENT GUSTS...WITH LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS (30-35
KT INDICATED). LLWS IS MORE LIKELY TO BE A CONCERN AT
KELM/KAVP...WITH MORE OF A WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SFC
AND 2000 FEET AGL (PROJECTED WINDS AT THE 2000 FOOT LVL OF 50-60
KT).

VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PD. SOME RESTRICTIONS
ARE PSBL MON MRNG...WHEN A BAND OF STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE RGN. MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
(ROUGHLY 08-16Z)...WITH KRME/KBGM/KITH THE MOST PROBABLE SITES TO
BE IMPACTED.

FOR MOST OF MON AFTN...VFR SHOULD RETURN...AS A LULL IN PCPN IS
EXPECTED. LATE IN THE DAY (AFTER 21Z)...A LN OF SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS
COULD IMPACT KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AGN
PSBL. FOR THE TIME BEING...FCST RANGE (OUT NEARLY 24 HRS) AND
UNCERTAIN COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TERMINAL
FCSTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP
MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 200000
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
800 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN MIDDAY MONDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THAT TIME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND
VERY COOL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

A BEAUTIFUL END TO OUR WEEKEND ALBEIT A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR SO
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. I HOPE YOU ENJOYED THE WEEKEND
BECAUSE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH DOESN`T LOOK ALL
THAT GOOD.

WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THOSE CHANGES IN THE FORM OF SOME
THIN WISPY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE ARE WELL AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW OVER ILLINOIS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WELL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES BUT A QUICK SHOT OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY FOR EVERYONE.

THE BIG STORY TONIGHT MAY BE THE WIND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT FAVOR A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. WHILE WE ARE
VERY STABLE JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
TEMPER WINDS A BIT, STRONG WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ON THE HILLTOPS. IN GENERAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH
ARE LIKELY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF US. FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. THIS INCLUDES THE CATSKILLS, HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEPA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE HILLS SOUTH
OF SYRACUSE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 40
MPH ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SEMPRONIUS, POMPEY, GEORGETOWN, IN THE
FAVORED SOUTHEAST FLOW AREAS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE.

MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS THE STEADIER RAIN SLIDING EAST AND
PERHAPS EVEN OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDDAY. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY GIVE US JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY,
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME SUN, TO COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING DURING THE EVENING FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK HAS MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK TOWARD OUR AREA AND JUST BRUSHES
SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY. IN ADDITION A MARGINAL RISK (OLD SEE TEXT
FROM PAST YEARS) IS NOW UP TO NEAR THE NY STATE THRUWAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST. SHEAR VALUES ARE
GOOD BUT IT WILL COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE SEVERE RISK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ALL HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL
OF A SQUALL LINE BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY AND 03Z TUESDAY ROUGHLY FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NEPA. ADJUSTED OUR CURRENT HWO TO
REFLECT THIS THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEPA, WHICH IS CLOSE TO
WHAT SPC IS FORECASTING FOR SEVERE RISK.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT, THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CLOSED
UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WE WILL SEE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FILTER INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS TUESDAY (MID TO UPPER 50S) BUT THEN BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S
FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS WILL
SEE JUST RAIN SHOWERS. 850 TEMPS DO DROP BELOW ZERO BY WED MORNING
SO A STRAY FLAKE COULDN`T BE RULED OUT IN CNY EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT THE APPRECIABLE COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NOVA SCOTIA.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SFC
OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD POOL ALOFT AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS
WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MON UPDATE... THE MOST SIG ISSUE THIS PD IS LIKELY TO BE THE
GUSTY SFC WINDS/PSBL LLWS...SPCLY LTR TNT AND MON MRNG. GIVEN AN
EXPECTED SE FLOW...KSYR/KITH/KBGM ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE
STGST/MOST PERSISTENT GUSTS...WITH LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS (30-35
KT INDICATED). LLWS IS MORE LIKELY TO BE A CONCERN AT
KELM/KAVP...WITH MORE OF A WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SFC
AND 2000 FEET AGL (PROJECTED WINDS AT THE 2000 FOOT LVL OF 50-60
KT).

VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PD. SOME RESTRICTIONS
ARE PSBL MON MRNG...WHEN A BAND OF STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE RGN. MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
(ROUGHLY 08-16Z)...WITH KRME/KBGM/KITH THE MOST PROBABLE SITES TO
BE IMPACTED.

FOR MOST OF MON AFTN...VFR SHOULD RETURN...AS A LULL IN PCPN IS
EXPECTED. LATE IN THE DAY (AFTER 21Z)...A LN OF SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS
COULD IMPACT KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AGN
PSBL. FOR THE TIME BEING...FCST RANGE (OUT NEARLY 24 HRS) AND
UNCERTAIN COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TERMINAL
FCSTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP
MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 200000
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
800 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN MIDDAY MONDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THAT TIME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND
VERY COOL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

A BEAUTIFUL END TO OUR WEEKEND ALBEIT A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR SO
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. I HOPE YOU ENJOYED THE WEEKEND
BECAUSE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH DOESN`T LOOK ALL
THAT GOOD.

WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THOSE CHANGES IN THE FORM OF SOME
THIN WISPY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE ARE WELL AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW OVER ILLINOIS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WELL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES BUT A QUICK SHOT OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY FOR EVERYONE.

THE BIG STORY TONIGHT MAY BE THE WIND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT FAVOR A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. WHILE WE ARE
VERY STABLE JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
TEMPER WINDS A BIT, STRONG WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ON THE HILLTOPS. IN GENERAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH
ARE LIKELY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF US. FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. THIS INCLUDES THE CATSKILLS, HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEPA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE HILLS SOUTH
OF SYRACUSE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 40
MPH ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SEMPRONIUS, POMPEY, GEORGETOWN, IN THE
FAVORED SOUTHEAST FLOW AREAS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE.

MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS THE STEADIER RAIN SLIDING EAST AND
PERHAPS EVEN OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDDAY. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY GIVE US JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY,
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME SUN, TO COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING DURING THE EVENING FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK HAS MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK TOWARD OUR AREA AND JUST BRUSHES
SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY. IN ADDITION A MARGINAL RISK (OLD SEE TEXT
FROM PAST YEARS) IS NOW UP TO NEAR THE NY STATE THRUWAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST. SHEAR VALUES ARE
GOOD BUT IT WILL COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE SEVERE RISK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ALL HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL
OF A SQUALL LINE BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY AND 03Z TUESDAY ROUGHLY FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NEPA. ADJUSTED OUR CURRENT HWO TO
REFLECT THIS THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEPA, WHICH IS CLOSE TO
WHAT SPC IS FORECASTING FOR SEVERE RISK.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT, THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CLOSED
UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WE WILL SEE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FILTER INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS TUESDAY (MID TO UPPER 50S) BUT THEN BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S
FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS WILL
SEE JUST RAIN SHOWERS. 850 TEMPS DO DROP BELOW ZERO BY WED MORNING
SO A STRAY FLAKE COULDN`T BE RULED OUT IN CNY EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT THE APPRECIABLE COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NOVA SCOTIA.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SFC
OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD POOL ALOFT AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS
WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MON UPDATE... THE MOST SIG ISSUE THIS PD IS LIKELY TO BE THE
GUSTY SFC WINDS/PSBL LLWS...SPCLY LTR TNT AND MON MRNG. GIVEN AN
EXPECTED SE FLOW...KSYR/KITH/KBGM ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE
STGST/MOST PERSISTENT GUSTS...WITH LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS (30-35
KT INDICATED). LLWS IS MORE LIKELY TO BE A CONCERN AT
KELM/KAVP...WITH MORE OF A WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SFC
AND 2000 FEET AGL (PROJECTED WINDS AT THE 2000 FOOT LVL OF 50-60
KT).

VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PD. SOME RESTRICTIONS
ARE PSBL MON MRNG...WHEN A BAND OF STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE RGN. MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
(ROUGHLY 08-16Z)...WITH KRME/KBGM/KITH THE MOST PROBABLE SITES TO
BE IMPACTED.

FOR MOST OF MON AFTN...VFR SHOULD RETURN...AS A LULL IN PCPN IS
EXPECTED. LATE IN THE DAY (AFTER 21Z)...A LN OF SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS
COULD IMPACT KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AGN
PSBL. FOR THE TIME BEING...FCST RANGE (OUT NEARLY 24 HRS) AND
UNCERTAIN COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TERMINAL
FCSTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP
MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 200000
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
800 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN MIDDAY MONDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THAT TIME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND
VERY COOL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

A BEAUTIFUL END TO OUR WEEKEND ALBEIT A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR SO
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. I HOPE YOU ENJOYED THE WEEKEND
BECAUSE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH DOESN`T LOOK ALL
THAT GOOD.

WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THOSE CHANGES IN THE FORM OF SOME
THIN WISPY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE ARE WELL AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW OVER ILLINOIS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WELL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES BUT A QUICK SHOT OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY FOR EVERYONE.

THE BIG STORY TONIGHT MAY BE THE WIND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT FAVOR A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. WHILE WE ARE
VERY STABLE JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
TEMPER WINDS A BIT, STRONG WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ON THE HILLTOPS. IN GENERAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH
ARE LIKELY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF US. FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. THIS INCLUDES THE CATSKILLS, HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEPA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE HILLS SOUTH
OF SYRACUSE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 40
MPH ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SEMPRONIUS, POMPEY, GEORGETOWN, IN THE
FAVORED SOUTHEAST FLOW AREAS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE.

MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS THE STEADIER RAIN SLIDING EAST AND
PERHAPS EVEN OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDDAY. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY GIVE US JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY,
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME SUN, TO COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING DURING THE EVENING FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK HAS MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK TOWARD OUR AREA AND JUST BRUSHES
SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY. IN ADDITION A MARGINAL RISK (OLD SEE TEXT
FROM PAST YEARS) IS NOW UP TO NEAR THE NY STATE THRUWAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST. SHEAR VALUES ARE
GOOD BUT IT WILL COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE SEVERE RISK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ALL HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL
OF A SQUALL LINE BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY AND 03Z TUESDAY ROUGHLY FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NEPA. ADJUSTED OUR CURRENT HWO TO
REFLECT THIS THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEPA, WHICH IS CLOSE TO
WHAT SPC IS FORECASTING FOR SEVERE RISK.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT, THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CLOSED
UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WE WILL SEE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FILTER INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS TUESDAY (MID TO UPPER 50S) BUT THEN BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S
FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS WILL
SEE JUST RAIN SHOWERS. 850 TEMPS DO DROP BELOW ZERO BY WED MORNING
SO A STRAY FLAKE COULDN`T BE RULED OUT IN CNY EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT THE APPRECIABLE COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NOVA SCOTIA.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SFC
OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD POOL ALOFT AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS
WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MON UPDATE... THE MOST SIG ISSUE THIS PD IS LIKELY TO BE THE
GUSTY SFC WINDS/PSBL LLWS...SPCLY LTR TNT AND MON MRNG. GIVEN AN
EXPECTED SE FLOW...KSYR/KITH/KBGM ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE
STGST/MOST PERSISTENT GUSTS...WITH LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS (30-35
KT INDICATED). LLWS IS MORE LIKELY TO BE A CONCERN AT
KELM/KAVP...WITH MORE OF A WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SFC
AND 2000 FEET AGL (PROJECTED WINDS AT THE 2000 FOOT LVL OF 50-60
KT).

VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PD. SOME RESTRICTIONS
ARE PSBL MON MRNG...WHEN A BAND OF STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE RGN. MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
(ROUGHLY 08-16Z)...WITH KRME/KBGM/KITH THE MOST PROBABLE SITES TO
BE IMPACTED.

FOR MOST OF MON AFTN...VFR SHOULD RETURN...AS A LULL IN PCPN IS
EXPECTED. LATE IN THE DAY (AFTER 21Z)...A LN OF SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS
COULD IMPACT KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AGN
PSBL. FOR THE TIME BEING...FCST RANGE (OUT NEARLY 24 HRS) AND
UNCERTAIN COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TERMINAL
FCSTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP
MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 200000
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
800 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN MIDDAY MONDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THAT TIME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND
VERY COOL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

A BEAUTIFUL END TO OUR WEEKEND ALBEIT A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR SO
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. I HOPE YOU ENJOYED THE WEEKEND
BECAUSE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH DOESN`T LOOK ALL
THAT GOOD.

WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THOSE CHANGES IN THE FORM OF SOME
THIN WISPY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE ARE WELL AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW OVER ILLINOIS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WELL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES BUT A QUICK SHOT OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY FOR EVERYONE.

THE BIG STORY TONIGHT MAY BE THE WIND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT FAVOR A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. WHILE WE ARE
VERY STABLE JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
TEMPER WINDS A BIT, STRONG WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ON THE HILLTOPS. IN GENERAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH
ARE LIKELY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF US. FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. THIS INCLUDES THE CATSKILLS, HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEPA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE HILLS SOUTH
OF SYRACUSE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 40
MPH ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SEMPRONIUS, POMPEY, GEORGETOWN, IN THE
FAVORED SOUTHEAST FLOW AREAS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE.

MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS THE STEADIER RAIN SLIDING EAST AND
PERHAPS EVEN OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDDAY. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY GIVE US JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY,
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME SUN, TO COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING DURING THE EVENING FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK HAS MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK TOWARD OUR AREA AND JUST BRUSHES
SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY. IN ADDITION A MARGINAL RISK (OLD SEE TEXT
FROM PAST YEARS) IS NOW UP TO NEAR THE NY STATE THRUWAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST. SHEAR VALUES ARE
GOOD BUT IT WILL COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE SEVERE RISK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ALL HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL
OF A SQUALL LINE BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY AND 03Z TUESDAY ROUGHLY FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NEPA. ADJUSTED OUR CURRENT HWO TO
REFLECT THIS THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEPA, WHICH IS CLOSE TO
WHAT SPC IS FORECASTING FOR SEVERE RISK.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT, THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CLOSED
UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WE WILL SEE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FILTER INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS TUESDAY (MID TO UPPER 50S) BUT THEN BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S
FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS WILL
SEE JUST RAIN SHOWERS. 850 TEMPS DO DROP BELOW ZERO BY WED MORNING
SO A STRAY FLAKE COULDN`T BE RULED OUT IN CNY EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT THE APPRECIABLE COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NOVA SCOTIA.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SFC
OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD POOL ALOFT AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS
WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MON UPDATE... THE MOST SIG ISSUE THIS PD IS LIKELY TO BE THE
GUSTY SFC WINDS/PSBL LLWS...SPCLY LTR TNT AND MON MRNG. GIVEN AN
EXPECTED SE FLOW...KSYR/KITH/KBGM ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE
STGST/MOST PERSISTENT GUSTS...WITH LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS (30-35
KT INDICATED). LLWS IS MORE LIKELY TO BE A CONCERN AT
KELM/KAVP...WITH MORE OF A WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SFC
AND 2000 FEET AGL (PROJECTED WINDS AT THE 2000 FOOT LVL OF 50-60
KT).

VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PD. SOME RESTRICTIONS
ARE PSBL MON MRNG...WHEN A BAND OF STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE RGN. MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
(ROUGHLY 08-16Z)...WITH KRME/KBGM/KITH THE MOST PROBABLE SITES TO
BE IMPACTED.

FOR MOST OF MON AFTN...VFR SHOULD RETURN...AS A LULL IN PCPN IS
EXPECTED. LATE IN THE DAY (AFTER 21Z)...A LN OF SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS
COULD IMPACT KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AGN
PSBL. FOR THE TIME BEING...FCST RANGE (OUT NEARLY 24 HRS) AND
UNCERTAIN COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TERMINAL
FCSTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP
MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 191950
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
350 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN MIDDAY MONDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THAT TIME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND
VERY COOL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

A BEAUTIFUL END TO OUR WEEKEND ALBEIT A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR SO
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. I HOPE YOU ENJOYED THE WEEKEND
BECAUSE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH DOESN`T LOOK ALL
THAT GOOD.

WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THOSE CHANGES IN THE FORM OF SOME
THIN WISPY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE ARE WELL AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW OVER ILLINOIS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WELL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES BUT A QUICK SHOT OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY FOR EVERYONE.

THE BIG STORY TONIGHT MAY BE THE WIND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT FAVOR A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. WHILE WE ARE
VERY STABLE JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
TEMPER WINDS A BIT, STRONG WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ON THE HILLTOPS. IN GENERAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH
ARE LIKELY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF US. FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. THIS INCLUDES THE CATSKILLS, HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEPA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE HILLS SOUTH
OF SYRACUSE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 40
MPH ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SEMPRONIUS, POMPEY, GEORGETOWN, IN THE
FAVORED SOUTHEAST FLOW AREAS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE.

MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS THE STEADIER RAIN SLIDING EAST AND
PERHAPS EVEN OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDDAY. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY GIVE US JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY,
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME SUN, TO COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING DURING THE EVENING FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK HAS MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK TOWARD OUR AREA AND JUST BRUSHES
SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY. IN ADDITION A MARGINAL RISK (OLD SEE TEXT
FROM PAST YEARS) IS NOW UP TO NEAR THE NY STATE THRUWAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST. SHEAR VALUES ARE
GOOD BUT IT WILL COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE SEVERE RISK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ALL HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL
OF A SQUALL LINE BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY AND 03Z TUESDAY ROUGHLY FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NEPA. ADJUSTED OUR CURRENT HWO TO
REFLECT THIS THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEPA, WHICH IS CLOSE TO
WHAT SPC IS FORECASTING FOR SEVERE RISK.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT, THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CLOSED
UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WE WILL SEE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FILTER INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS TUESDAY (MID TO UPPER 50S) BUT THEN BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S
FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS WILL
SEE JUST RAIN SHOWERS. 850 TEMPS DO DROP BELOW ZERO BY WED MORNING
SO A STRAY FLAKE COULDN`T BE RULED OUT IN CNY EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT THE APPRECIABLE COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NOVA SCOTIA.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SFC
OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD POOL ALOFT AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS
WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. LIGHT UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z. TOWARD DAYBREAK MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.

E/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING STRONG LATER OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT 12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP
MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 191950
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
350 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN MIDDAY MONDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THAT TIME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND
VERY COOL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

A BEAUTIFUL END TO OUR WEEKEND ALBEIT A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR SO
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. I HOPE YOU ENJOYED THE WEEKEND
BECAUSE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH DOESN`T LOOK ALL
THAT GOOD.

WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THOSE CHANGES IN THE FORM OF SOME
THIN WISPY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE ARE WELL AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW OVER ILLINOIS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WELL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES BUT A QUICK SHOT OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY FOR EVERYONE.

THE BIG STORY TONIGHT MAY BE THE WIND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT FAVOR A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. WHILE WE ARE
VERY STABLE JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
TEMPER WINDS A BIT, STRONG WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ON THE HILLTOPS. IN GENERAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH
ARE LIKELY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF US. FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. THIS INCLUDES THE CATSKILLS, HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEPA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE HILLS SOUTH
OF SYRACUSE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 40
MPH ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SEMPRONIUS, POMPEY, GEORGETOWN, IN THE
FAVORED SOUTHEAST FLOW AREAS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE.

MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS THE STEADIER RAIN SLIDING EAST AND
PERHAPS EVEN OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDDAY. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY GIVE US JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY,
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME SUN, TO COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING DURING THE EVENING FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK HAS MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK TOWARD OUR AREA AND JUST BRUSHES
SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY. IN ADDITION A MARGINAL RISK (OLD SEE TEXT
FROM PAST YEARS) IS NOW UP TO NEAR THE NY STATE THRUWAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST. SHEAR VALUES ARE
GOOD BUT IT WILL COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE SEVERE RISK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ALL HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL
OF A SQUALL LINE BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY AND 03Z TUESDAY ROUGHLY FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NEPA. ADJUSTED OUR CURRENT HWO TO
REFLECT THIS THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEPA, WHICH IS CLOSE TO
WHAT SPC IS FORECASTING FOR SEVERE RISK.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT, THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CLOSED
UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WE WILL SEE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FILTER INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS TUESDAY (MID TO UPPER 50S) BUT THEN BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S
FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS WILL
SEE JUST RAIN SHOWERS. 850 TEMPS DO DROP BELOW ZERO BY WED MORNING
SO A STRAY FLAKE COULDN`T BE RULED OUT IN CNY EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT THE APPRECIABLE COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NOVA SCOTIA.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SFC
OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD POOL ALOFT AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS
WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. LIGHT UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z. TOWARD DAYBREAK MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.

E/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING STRONG LATER OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT 12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP
MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 191930
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
330 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN MIDDAY MONDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THAT TIME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND
VERY COOL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

A BEAUTIFUL END TO OUR WEEKEND ALBEIT A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR SO
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. I HOPE YOU ENJOYED THE WEEKEND
BECAUSE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH DOESN`T LOOK ALL
THAT GOOD.

WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THOSE CHANGES IN THE FORM OF SOME
THIN WISPY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE ARE WELL AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW OVER ILLINOIS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WELL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES BUT A QUICK SHOT OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY FOR EVERYONE.

THE BIG STORY TONIGHT MAY BE THE WIND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT FAVOR A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. WHILE WE ARE
VERY STABLE JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
TEMPER WINDS A BIT, STRONG WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ON THE HILLTOPS. IN GENERAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH
ARE LIKELY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF US. FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. THIS INCLUDES THE CATSKILLS, HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEPA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE HILLS SOUTH
OF SYRACUSE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 40
MPH ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SEMPRONIUS, POMPEY, GEORGETOWN, IN THE
FAVORED SOUTHEAST FLOW AREAS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE.

MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS THE STEADIER RAIN SLIDING EAST AND
PERHAPS EVEN OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDDAY. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY GIVE US JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY,
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME SUN, TO COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING DURING THE EVENING FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK HAS MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK TOWARD OUR AREA AND JUST BRUSHES
SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY. IN ADDITION A MARGINAL RISK (OLD SEE TEXT
FROM PAST YEARS) IS NOW UP TO NEAR THE NY STATE THRUWAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST. SHEAR VALUES ARE
GOOD BUT IT WILL COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE SEVERE RISK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. WE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP
SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND REACH EASTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC.
THE OTHER CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL A
STRENGTHENING SE WIND FIELD IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH WINDS NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL REACHING 35 TO 45 KNOTS
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRENGTHENING SE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE REACHING SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAIN.

FOR MONDAY, RAINY AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING OUT WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY THIS TIME WITH
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER S/SE ZONES THROUGH NE PA INTO
THE CATSKILLS...IN PART DUE TO  EFFECTS. DESPITE THE BREAK IN
PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON, NOT EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT IN ANY REAL
SUN DUE TO SATURATED PROFILES OFF THE DECK AND THUS ONLY EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REACHING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO WE ADDED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOLLOWING THIS SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP, EXPECT GENERALLY COOL,GRAY,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BUT NOT LOOKING AT ALL DAY RAIN FOR TUESDAY. IN FACT THERE SHOULD
BE ANOTHER LULL IN THE MORNING BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DROP INTO THE 30S WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET FLAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NOVA SCOTIA.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SFC
OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD POOL ALOFT AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS
WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. LIGHT UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z. TOWARD DAYBREAK MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.

E/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING STRONG LATER OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT 12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP
MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 191930
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
330 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN MIDDAY MONDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THAT TIME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND
VERY COOL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

A BEAUTIFUL END TO OUR WEEKEND ALBEIT A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR SO
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. I HOPE YOU ENJOYED THE WEEKEND
BECAUSE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH DOESN`T LOOK ALL
THAT GOOD.

WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THOSE CHANGES IN THE FORM OF SOME
THIN WISPY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE ARE WELL AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW OVER ILLINOIS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WELL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES BUT A QUICK SHOT OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY FOR EVERYONE.

THE BIG STORY TONIGHT MAY BE THE WIND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT FAVOR A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. WHILE WE ARE
VERY STABLE JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
TEMPER WINDS A BIT, STRONG WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ON THE HILLTOPS. IN GENERAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH
ARE LIKELY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF US. FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. THIS INCLUDES THE CATSKILLS, HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEPA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE HILLS SOUTH
OF SYRACUSE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 40
MPH ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SEMPRONIUS, POMPEY, GEORGETOWN, IN THE
FAVORED SOUTHEAST FLOW AREAS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE.

MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS THE STEADIER RAIN SLIDING EAST AND
PERHAPS EVEN OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDDAY. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY GIVE US JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY,
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME SUN, TO COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING DURING THE EVENING FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK HAS MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK TOWARD OUR AREA AND JUST BRUSHES
SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY. IN ADDITION A MARGINAL RISK (OLD SEE TEXT
FROM PAST YEARS) IS NOW UP TO NEAR THE NY STATE THRUWAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST. SHEAR VALUES ARE
GOOD BUT IT WILL COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE SEVERE RISK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. WE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP
SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND REACH EASTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC.
THE OTHER CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL A
STRENGTHENING SE WIND FIELD IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH WINDS NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL REACHING 35 TO 45 KNOTS
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRENGTHENING SE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE REACHING SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAIN.

FOR MONDAY, RAINY AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING OUT WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY THIS TIME WITH
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER S/SE ZONES THROUGH NE PA INTO
THE CATSKILLS...IN PART DUE TO  EFFECTS. DESPITE THE BREAK IN
PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON, NOT EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT IN ANY REAL
SUN DUE TO SATURATED PROFILES OFF THE DECK AND THUS ONLY EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REACHING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO WE ADDED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOLLOWING THIS SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP, EXPECT GENERALLY COOL,GRAY,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BUT NOT LOOKING AT ALL DAY RAIN FOR TUESDAY. IN FACT THERE SHOULD
BE ANOTHER LULL IN THE MORNING BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DROP INTO THE 30S WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET FLAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NOVA SCOTIA.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SFC
OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD POOL ALOFT AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS
WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. LIGHT UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z. TOWARD DAYBREAK MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.

E/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING STRONG LATER OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT 12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP
MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 191913
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
313 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN MIDDAY MONDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THAT TIME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND
VERY COOL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

A BEAUTIFUL END TO OUR WEEKEND ALBEIT A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR SO
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. I HOPE YOU ENJOYED THE WEEKEND
BECAUSE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH DOESN`T LOOK ALL
THAT GOOD.

WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THOSE CHANGES IN THE FORM OF SOME
THIN WISPY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE ARE WELL AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW OVER ILLINOIS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WELL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES BUT A QUICK SHOT OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY FOR EVERYONE.

THE BIG STORY TONIGHT MAY BE THE WIND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT FAVOR A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. WHILE WE ARE
VERY STABLE JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
TEMPER WINDS A BIT, STRONG WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ON THE HILLTOPS. IN GENERAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH
ARE LIKELY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF US. FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. THIS INCLUDES THE CATSKILLS, HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEPA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE HILLS SOUTH
OF SYRACUSE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 40
MPH ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SEMPRONIUS, POMPEY, GEORGETOWN, IN THE
FAVORED SOUTHEAST FLOW AREAS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE.

MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS THE STEADIER RAIN SLIDING EAST AND
PERHAPS EVEN OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDDAY. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY GIVE US JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY,
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME SUN, TO COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING DURING THE EVENING FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK HAS MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK TOWARD OUR AREA AND JUST BRUSHES
SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY. IN ADDITION A MARGINAL RISK (OLD SEE TEXT
FROM PAST YEARS) IS NOW UP TO NEAR THE NY STATE THRUWAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST. SHEAR VALUES ARE
GOOD BUT IT WILL COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE SEVERE RISK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. WE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP
SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND REACH EASTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC.
THE OTHER CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL A
STRENGTHENING SE WIND FIELD IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH WINDS NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL REACHING 35 TO 45 KNOTS
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRENGTHENING SE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE REACHING SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAIN.

FOR MONDAY, RAINY AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING OUT WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY THIS TIME WITH
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER S/SE ZONES THROUGH NE PA INTO
THE CATSKILLS...IN PART DUE TO  EFFECTS. DESPITE THE BREAK IN
PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON, NOT EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT IN ANY REAL
SUN DUE TO SATURATED PROFILES OFF THE DECK AND THUS ONLY EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REACHING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO WE ADDED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOLLOWING THIS SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP, EXPECT GENERALLY COOL,GRAY,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BUT NOT LOOKING AT ALL DAY RAIN FOR TUESDAY. IN FACT THERE SHOULD
BE ANOTHER LULL IN THE MORNING BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DROP INTO THE 30S WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET FLAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO BIG CHANGES. MODELS SIMILAR WITH COOL WET WEATHER FOR
THE PERIOD. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. LIGHT UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z. TOWARD DAYBREAK MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.

E/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING STRONG LATER OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT 12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP
MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM





000
FXUS61 KBGM 191913
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
313 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN MIDDAY MONDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THAT TIME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND
VERY COOL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

A BEAUTIFUL END TO OUR WEEKEND ALBEIT A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR SO
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. I HOPE YOU ENJOYED THE WEEKEND
BECAUSE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH DOESN`T LOOK ALL
THAT GOOD.

WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THOSE CHANGES IN THE FORM OF SOME
THIN WISPY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE ARE WELL AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW OVER ILLINOIS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WELL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES BUT A QUICK SHOT OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY FOR EVERYONE.

THE BIG STORY TONIGHT MAY BE THE WIND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT FAVOR A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. WHILE WE ARE
VERY STABLE JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
TEMPER WINDS A BIT, STRONG WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ON THE HILLTOPS. IN GENERAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH
ARE LIKELY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF US. FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. THIS INCLUDES THE CATSKILLS, HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEPA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE HILLS SOUTH
OF SYRACUSE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 40
MPH ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SEMPRONIUS, POMPEY, GEORGETOWN, IN THE
FAVORED SOUTHEAST FLOW AREAS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE.

MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS THE STEADIER RAIN SLIDING EAST AND
PERHAPS EVEN OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDDAY. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY GIVE US JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY,
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME SUN, TO COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING DURING THE EVENING FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK HAS MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK TOWARD OUR AREA AND JUST BRUSHES
SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY. IN ADDITION A MARGINAL RISK (OLD SEE TEXT
FROM PAST YEARS) IS NOW UP TO NEAR THE NY STATE THRUWAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST. SHEAR VALUES ARE
GOOD BUT IT WILL COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE SEVERE RISK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. WE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP
SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND REACH EASTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC.
THE OTHER CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL A
STRENGTHENING SE WIND FIELD IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH WINDS NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL REACHING 35 TO 45 KNOTS
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRENGTHENING SE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE REACHING SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAIN.

FOR MONDAY, RAINY AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING OUT WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY THIS TIME WITH
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER S/SE ZONES THROUGH NE PA INTO
THE CATSKILLS...IN PART DUE TO  EFFECTS. DESPITE THE BREAK IN
PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON, NOT EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT IN ANY REAL
SUN DUE TO SATURATED PROFILES OFF THE DECK AND THUS ONLY EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REACHING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO WE ADDED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOLLOWING THIS SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP, EXPECT GENERALLY COOL,GRAY,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BUT NOT LOOKING AT ALL DAY RAIN FOR TUESDAY. IN FACT THERE SHOULD
BE ANOTHER LULL IN THE MORNING BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DROP INTO THE 30S WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET FLAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO BIG CHANGES. MODELS SIMILAR WITH COOL WET WEATHER FOR
THE PERIOD. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. LIGHT UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z. TOWARD DAYBREAK MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.

E/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING STRONG LATER OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT 12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP
MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 191754
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
154 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY. A LARGE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING RAIN AND
WIND TO THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1055 AM UPDATE...

A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE MAX T FORECAST, OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
TEMPS NOW MOSTLY INTO THE 50S AND YOU CAN EXPECT ABOUT ANOTHER 10
DEGREE RISE TO OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THIN HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING
ACROSS OUR AREA NOW BUT ANY THREAT FOR RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW

0645 AM UPDATE...JUST MADE SOME VERY MINOR CHANGES TO MORNING
TEMPS, DEW POINTS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOLLOWING A COOL START, TODAY WILL BE
ANOTHER NICE DAY HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LATE IN
THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL MARK THE END OF
OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER CHANGES IN STORE
FOR THE WORK WEEK. THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHICH ARE DETAILED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. WE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP
SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND REACH EASTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC.
THE OTHER CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL A
STRENGTHENING SE WIND FIELD IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH WINDS NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL REACHING 35 TO 45 KNOTS
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRENGTHENING SE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE REACHING SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAIN.

FOR MONDAY, RAINY AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING OUT WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY THIS TIME WITH
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER S/SE ZONES THROUGH NE PA INTO
THE CATSKILLS...IN PART DUE TO  EFFECTS. DESPITE THE BREAK IN
PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON, NOT EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT IN ANY REAL
SUN DUE TO SATURATED PROFILES OFF THE DECK AND THUS ONLY EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REACHING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO WE ADDED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOLLOWING THIS SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP, EXPECT GENERALLY COOL,GRAY,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BUT NOT LOOKING AT ALL DAY RAIN FOR TUESDAY. IN FACT THERE SHOULD
BE ANOTHER LULL IN THE MORNING BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DROP INTO THE 30S WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET FLAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO BIG CHANGES. MODELS SIMILAR WITH COOL WET WEATHER FOR
THE PERIOD. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. LIGHT UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z. TOWARD DAYBREAK MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.

E/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING STRONG LATER OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT 12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP
MON NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVE DAY AS AFTERNOON RH
VALUES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S. WE WON`T QUITE MEET RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA HOWEVER EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH BY LATE DAY ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN. SUNSHINE
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON-
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WETTING RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBGM 191754
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
154 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY. A LARGE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING RAIN AND
WIND TO THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1055 AM UPDATE...

A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE MAX T FORECAST, OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
TEMPS NOW MOSTLY INTO THE 50S AND YOU CAN EXPECT ABOUT ANOTHER 10
DEGREE RISE TO OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THIN HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING
ACROSS OUR AREA NOW BUT ANY THREAT FOR RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW

0645 AM UPDATE...JUST MADE SOME VERY MINOR CHANGES TO MORNING
TEMPS, DEW POINTS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOLLOWING A COOL START, TODAY WILL BE
ANOTHER NICE DAY HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LATE IN
THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL MARK THE END OF
OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER CHANGES IN STORE
FOR THE WORK WEEK. THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHICH ARE DETAILED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. WE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP
SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND REACH EASTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC.
THE OTHER CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL A
STRENGTHENING SE WIND FIELD IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH WINDS NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL REACHING 35 TO 45 KNOTS
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRENGTHENING SE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE REACHING SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAIN.

FOR MONDAY, RAINY AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING OUT WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY THIS TIME WITH
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER S/SE ZONES THROUGH NE PA INTO
THE CATSKILLS...IN PART DUE TO  EFFECTS. DESPITE THE BREAK IN
PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON, NOT EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT IN ANY REAL
SUN DUE TO SATURATED PROFILES OFF THE DECK AND THUS ONLY EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REACHING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO WE ADDED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOLLOWING THIS SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP, EXPECT GENERALLY COOL,GRAY,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BUT NOT LOOKING AT ALL DAY RAIN FOR TUESDAY. IN FACT THERE SHOULD
BE ANOTHER LULL IN THE MORNING BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DROP INTO THE 30S WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET FLAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO BIG CHANGES. MODELS SIMILAR WITH COOL WET WEATHER FOR
THE PERIOD. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. LIGHT UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z. TOWARD DAYBREAK MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.

E/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING STRONG LATER OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT 12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP
MON NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVE DAY AS AFTERNOON RH
VALUES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S. WE WON`T QUITE MEET RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA HOWEVER EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH BY LATE DAY ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN. SUNSHINE
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON-
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WETTING RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBGM 191459
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1059 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY. A LARGE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING RAIN AND
WIND TO THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1055 AM UPDATE...

A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE MAX T FORECAST, OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
TEMPS NOW MOSTLY INTO THE 50S AND YOU CAN EXPECT ABOUT ANOTHER 10
DEGREE RISE TO OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THIN HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING
ACROSS OUR AREA NOW BUT ANY THREAT FOR RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW

0645 AM UPDATE...JUST MADE SOME VERY MINOR CHANGES TO MORNING
TEMPS, DEW POINTS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOLLOWING A COOL START, TODAY WILL BE
ANOTHER NICE DAY HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LATE IN
THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL MARK THE END OF
OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER CHANGES IN STORE
FOR THE WORK WEEK. THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHICH ARE DETAILED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. WE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP
SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND REACH EASTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC.
THE OTHER CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL A
STRENGTHENING SE WIND FIELD IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH WINDS NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL REACHING 35 TO 45 KNOTS
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRENGTHENING SE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE REACHING SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAIN.

FOR MONDAY, RAINY AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING OUT WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY THIS TIME WITH
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER S/SE ZONES THROUGH NE PA INTO
THE CATSKILLS...IN PART DUE TO UPSLOPE EFFECTS. DESPITE THE BREAK
IN PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON, NOT EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT IN ANY REAL SUN
DUE TO SATURATED PROFILES OFF THE DECK AND THUS ONLY EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REACHING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO WE ADDED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOLLOWING THIS SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP, EXPECT GENERALLY COOL,GRAY,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BUT NOT LOOKING AT ALL DAY RAIN FOR TUESDAY. IN FACT THERE SHOULD
BE ANOTHER LULL IN THE MORNING BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DROP INTO THE 30S WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET FLAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO BIG CHANGES. MODELS SIMILAR WITH COOL WET WEATHER FOR
THE PERIOD. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. STEADY MAINLY LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN
BETWEEN 6 AND 9Z. ABOUT 3 HOURS LATER CIGS FALL TO MVFR. VSBYS MAY
FALL TO MVFR TOO. HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY HERE THEN CLOUDS DO NOT
LOWER TO MID UNTIL EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR E WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY. WINDS SHIFT TO
SE DURING THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
DURING THE EVENING FURTHER SPEED INCREASES TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AT 40 TO 60 KTS MIGHT NEED TO
ADD LLWS FOR TONIGHT WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK...

MON MORNING...MVFR CONTINUING WITH RAIN.

MON AFTN-THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVE DAY AS AFTERNOON RH
VALUES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S. WE WON`T QUITE MEET RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA HOWEVER EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH BY LATE DAY ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN. SUNSHINE
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON-
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WETTING RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBGM 191459
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1059 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY. A LARGE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING RAIN AND
WIND TO THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1055 AM UPDATE...

A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE MAX T FORECAST, OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
TEMPS NOW MOSTLY INTO THE 50S AND YOU CAN EXPECT ABOUT ANOTHER 10
DEGREE RISE TO OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THIN HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING
ACROSS OUR AREA NOW BUT ANY THREAT FOR RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW

0645 AM UPDATE...JUST MADE SOME VERY MINOR CHANGES TO MORNING
TEMPS, DEW POINTS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOLLOWING A COOL START, TODAY WILL BE
ANOTHER NICE DAY HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LATE IN
THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL MARK THE END OF
OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER CHANGES IN STORE
FOR THE WORK WEEK. THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHICH ARE DETAILED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. WE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP
SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND REACH EASTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC.
THE OTHER CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL A
STRENGTHENING SE WIND FIELD IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH WINDS NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL REACHING 35 TO 45 KNOTS
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRENGTHENING SE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE REACHING SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAIN.

FOR MONDAY, RAINY AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING OUT WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY THIS TIME WITH
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER S/SE ZONES THROUGH NE PA INTO
THE CATSKILLS...IN PART DUE TO UPSLOPE EFFECTS. DESPITE THE BREAK
IN PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON, NOT EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT IN ANY REAL SUN
DUE TO SATURATED PROFILES OFF THE DECK AND THUS ONLY EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REACHING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO WE ADDED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOLLOWING THIS SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP, EXPECT GENERALLY COOL,GRAY,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BUT NOT LOOKING AT ALL DAY RAIN FOR TUESDAY. IN FACT THERE SHOULD
BE ANOTHER LULL IN THE MORNING BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DROP INTO THE 30S WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET FLAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO BIG CHANGES. MODELS SIMILAR WITH COOL WET WEATHER FOR
THE PERIOD. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. STEADY MAINLY LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN
BETWEEN 6 AND 9Z. ABOUT 3 HOURS LATER CIGS FALL TO MVFR. VSBYS MAY
FALL TO MVFR TOO. HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY HERE THEN CLOUDS DO NOT
LOWER TO MID UNTIL EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR E WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY. WINDS SHIFT TO
SE DURING THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
DURING THE EVENING FURTHER SPEED INCREASES TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AT 40 TO 60 KTS MIGHT NEED TO
ADD LLWS FOR TONIGHT WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK...

MON MORNING...MVFR CONTINUING WITH RAIN.

MON AFTN-THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVE DAY AS AFTERNOON RH
VALUES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S. WE WON`T QUITE MEET RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA HOWEVER EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH BY LATE DAY ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN. SUNSHINE
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON-
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WETTING RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBGM 191107
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
707 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY. A LARGE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING RAIN AND
WIND TO THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0645 AM UPDATE...JUST MADE SOME VERY MINOR CHANGES TO MORNING
TEMPS, DEW POINTS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOLLOWING A COOL START, TODAY WILL BE
ANOTHER NICE DAY HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LATE IN
THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL MARK THE END OF
OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER CHANGES IN STORE
FOR THE WORK WEEK. THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHICH ARE DETAILED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. WE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP
SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND REACH EASTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC.
THE OTHER CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL A
STRENGTHENING SE WIND FIELD IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH WINDS NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL REACHING 35 TO 45 KNOTS
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRENGTHENING SE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE REACHING SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAIN.

FOR MONDAY, RAINY AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING OUT WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY THIS TIME WITH
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER S/SE ZONES THROUGH NE PA INTO
THE CATSKILLS...IN PART DUE TO UPSLOPE EFFECTS. DESPITE THE BREAK
IN PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON, NOT EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT IN ANY REAL SUN
DUE TO SATURATED PROFILES OFF THE DECK AND THUS ONLY EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REACHING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO WE ADDED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOLLOWING THIS SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP, EXPECT GENERALLY COOL,GRAY,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BUT NOT LOOKING AT ALL DAY RAIN FOR TUESDAY. IN FACT THERE SHOULD
BE ANOTHER LULL IN THE MORNING BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DROP INTO THE 30S WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET FLAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO BIG CHANGES. MODELS SIMILAR WITH COOL WET WEATHER FOR
THE PERIOD. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. STEADY MAINLY LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN
BETWEEN 6 AND 9Z. ABOUT 3 HOURS LATER CIGS FALL TO MVFR. VSBYS MAY
FALL TO MVFR TOO. HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY HERE THEN CLOUDS DO NOT
LOWER TO MID UNTIL EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR E WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY. WINDS SHIFT TO
SE DURING THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
DURING THE EVENING FURTHER SPEED INCREASES TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AT 40 TO 60 KTS MIGHT NEED TO
ADD LLWS FOR TONIGHT WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK...

MON MORNING...MVFR CONTINUING WITH RAIN.

MON AFTN-THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVE DAY AS AFTERNOON RH
VALUES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S. WE WON`T QUITE MEET RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA HOWEVER EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH BY LATE DAY ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN. SUNSHINE
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON-
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WETTING RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBGM 191107
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
707 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY. A LARGE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING RAIN AND
WIND TO THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0645 AM UPDATE...JUST MADE SOME VERY MINOR CHANGES TO MORNING
TEMPS, DEW POINTS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOLLOWING A COOL START, TODAY WILL BE
ANOTHER NICE DAY HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LATE IN
THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL MARK THE END OF
OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER CHANGES IN STORE
FOR THE WORK WEEK. THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHICH ARE DETAILED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. WE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP
SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND REACH EASTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC.
THE OTHER CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL A
STRENGTHENING SE WIND FIELD IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH WINDS NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL REACHING 35 TO 45 KNOTS
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRENGTHENING SE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE REACHING SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAIN.

FOR MONDAY, RAINY AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING OUT WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY THIS TIME WITH
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER S/SE ZONES THROUGH NE PA INTO
THE CATSKILLS...IN PART DUE TO UPSLOPE EFFECTS. DESPITE THE BREAK
IN PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON, NOT EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT IN ANY REAL SUN
DUE TO SATURATED PROFILES OFF THE DECK AND THUS ONLY EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REACHING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO WE ADDED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOLLOWING THIS SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP, EXPECT GENERALLY COOL,GRAY,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BUT NOT LOOKING AT ALL DAY RAIN FOR TUESDAY. IN FACT THERE SHOULD
BE ANOTHER LULL IN THE MORNING BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DROP INTO THE 30S WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET FLAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO BIG CHANGES. MODELS SIMILAR WITH COOL WET WEATHER FOR
THE PERIOD. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. STEADY MAINLY LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN
BETWEEN 6 AND 9Z. ABOUT 3 HOURS LATER CIGS FALL TO MVFR. VSBYS MAY
FALL TO MVFR TOO. HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY HERE THEN CLOUDS DO NOT
LOWER TO MID UNTIL EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR E WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY. WINDS SHIFT TO
SE DURING THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
DURING THE EVENING FURTHER SPEED INCREASES TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AT 40 TO 60 KTS MIGHT NEED TO
ADD LLWS FOR TONIGHT WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK...

MON MORNING...MVFR CONTINUING WITH RAIN.

MON AFTN-THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVE DAY AS AFTERNOON RH
VALUES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S. WE WON`T QUITE MEET RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA HOWEVER EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH BY LATE DAY ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN. SUNSHINE
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON-
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WETTING RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBGM 191047
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
647 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY. A LARGE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING RAIN AND
WIND TO THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0645 AM UPDATE...JUST MADE SOME VERY MINOR CHANGES TO MORNING
TEMPS, DEW POINTS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOLLOWING A COOL START, TODAY WILL BE
ANOTHER NICE DAY HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LATE IN
THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL MARK THE END OF
OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER CHANGES IN STORE
FOR THE WORK WEEK. THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHICH ARE DETAILED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. WE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP
SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND REACH EASTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC.
THE OTHER CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL A
STRENGTHENING SE WIND FIELD IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH WINDS NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL REACHING 35 TO 45 KNOTS
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRENGTHENING SE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE REACHING SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAIN.

FOR MONDAY, RAINY AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING OUT WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY THIS TIME WITH
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER S/SE ZONES THROUGH NE PA INTO
THE CATSKILLS...IN PART DUE TO UPSLOPE EFFECTS. DESPITE THE BREAK
IN PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON, NOT EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT IN ANY REAL SUN
DUE TO SATURATED PROFILES OFF THE DECK AND THUS ONLY EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REACHING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO WE ADDED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOLLOWING THIS SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP, EXPECT GENERALLY COOL,GRAY,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BUT NOT LOOKING AT ALL DAY RAIN FOR TUESDAY. IN FACT THERE SHOULD
BE ANOTHER LULL IN THE MORNING BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DROP INTO THE 30S WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET FLAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO BIG CHANGES. MODELS SIMILAR WITH COOL WET WEATHER FOR
THE PERIOD. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. JUST BEYOND THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST...LATE SUN NGT CONDITIONS WORSEN TO MVFR AS STEADY RAIN
COMES IN. HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY HERE BUT CLOUDS DO NOT LOWER TO MID
UNTIL EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NE WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS SHIFT TO SE DURING THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE EVENING FURTHER SPEED INCREASES TO 10 TO
15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AVP AND BGM. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AT 40
TO 60 KTS WILL NEED TO ADD LLWS FOR TONIGHT WHEN CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN OVERNIGHT- MON MORNING...WAVE OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MOVING THROUGH. ALSO...LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO
POSSIBLE LLWS.

MON AFTN-THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVE DAY AS AFTERNOON RH
VALUES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S. WE WON`T QUITE MEET RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA HOWEVER EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH BY LATE DAY ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN. SUNSHINE
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON-
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WETTING RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBGM 191047
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
647 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY. A LARGE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING RAIN AND
WIND TO THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0645 AM UPDATE...JUST MADE SOME VERY MINOR CHANGES TO MORNING
TEMPS, DEW POINTS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOLLOWING A COOL START, TODAY WILL BE
ANOTHER NICE DAY HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LATE IN
THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL MARK THE END OF
OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER CHANGES IN STORE
FOR THE WORK WEEK. THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHICH ARE DETAILED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. WE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP
SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND REACH EASTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC.
THE OTHER CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL A
STRENGTHENING SE WIND FIELD IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH WINDS NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL REACHING 35 TO 45 KNOTS
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRENGTHENING SE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE REACHING SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAIN.

FOR MONDAY, RAINY AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING OUT WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY THIS TIME WITH
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER S/SE ZONES THROUGH NE PA INTO
THE CATSKILLS...IN PART DUE TO UPSLOPE EFFECTS. DESPITE THE BREAK
IN PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON, NOT EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT IN ANY REAL SUN
DUE TO SATURATED PROFILES OFF THE DECK AND THUS ONLY EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REACHING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO WE ADDED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOLLOWING THIS SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP, EXPECT GENERALLY COOL,GRAY,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BUT NOT LOOKING AT ALL DAY RAIN FOR TUESDAY. IN FACT THERE SHOULD
BE ANOTHER LULL IN THE MORNING BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DROP INTO THE 30S WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET FLAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO BIG CHANGES. MODELS SIMILAR WITH COOL WET WEATHER FOR
THE PERIOD. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. JUST BEYOND THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST...LATE SUN NGT CONDITIONS WORSEN TO MVFR AS STEADY RAIN
COMES IN. HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY HERE BUT CLOUDS DO NOT LOWER TO MID
UNTIL EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NE WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS SHIFT TO SE DURING THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE EVENING FURTHER SPEED INCREASES TO 10 TO
15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AVP AND BGM. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AT 40
TO 60 KTS WILL NEED TO ADD LLWS FOR TONIGHT WHEN CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN OVERNIGHT- MON MORNING...WAVE OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MOVING THROUGH. ALSO...LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO
POSSIBLE LLWS.

MON AFTN-THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVE DAY AS AFTERNOON RH
VALUES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S. WE WON`T QUITE MEET RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA HOWEVER EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH BY LATE DAY ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN. SUNSHINE
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON-
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WETTING RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBGM 190828
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
428 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY. A LARGE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING RAIN AND
WIND TO THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

FOLLOWING A COOL START, TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LATE IN THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL MARK THE END OF OUR NICE WEEKEND
WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WORK WEEK.
THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHICH
ARE DETAILED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. WE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP
SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND REACH EASTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC.
THE OTHER CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL A
STRENGTHENING SE WIND FIELD IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH WINDS NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL REACHING 35 TO 45 KNOTS
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRENGTHENING SE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE REACHING SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAIN.

FOR MONDAY, RAINY AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING OUT WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY THIS TIME WITH
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER S/SE ZONES THROUGH NE PA INTO
THE CATSKILLS...IN PART DUE TO UPSLOPE EFFECTS. DESPITE THE BREAK
IN PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON, NOT EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT IN ANY REAL SUN
DUE TO SATURATED PROFILES OFF THE DECK AND THUS ONLY EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REACHING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO WE ADDED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOLLOWING THIS SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP, EXPECT GENERALLY COOL,GRAY,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BUT NOT LOOKING AT ALL DAY RAIN FOR TUESDAY. IN FACT THERE SHOULD
BE ANOTHER LULL IN THE MORNING BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DROP INTO THE 30S WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET FLAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO BIG CHANGES. MODELS SIMILAR WITH COOL WET WEATHER FOR
THE PERIOD. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. JUST BEYOND THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST...LATE SUN NGT CONDITIONS WORSEN TO MVFR AS STEADY RAIN
COMES IN. HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY HERE BUT CLOUDS DO NOT LOWER TO MID
UNTIL EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NE WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS SHIFT TO SE DURING THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE EVENING FURTHER SPEED INCREASES TO 10 TO
15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AVP AND BGM. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AT 40
TO 60 KTS WILL NEED TO ADD LLWS FOR TONIGHT WHEN CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN OVERNIGHT- MON MORNING...WAVE OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MOVING THROUGH. ALSO...LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO
POSSIBLE LLWS.

MON AFTN-THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVE DAY AS AFTERNOON RH
VALUES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S. WE WON`T QUITE MEET RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA HOWEVER EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH BY LATE DAY ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN. SUNSHINE
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON-
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WETTING RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 190828
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
428 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY. A LARGE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING RAIN AND
WIND TO THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

FOLLOWING A COOL START, TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LATE IN THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL MARK THE END OF OUR NICE WEEKEND
WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WORK WEEK.
THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHICH
ARE DETAILED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. WE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP
SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND REACH EASTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC.
THE OTHER CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL A
STRENGTHENING SE WIND FIELD IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH WINDS NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL REACHING 35 TO 45 KNOTS
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRENGTHENING SE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE REACHING SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAIN.

FOR MONDAY, RAINY AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING OUT WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY THIS TIME WITH
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER S/SE ZONES THROUGH NE PA INTO
THE CATSKILLS...IN PART DUE TO UPSLOPE EFFECTS. DESPITE THE BREAK
IN PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON, NOT EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT IN ANY REAL SUN
DUE TO SATURATED PROFILES OFF THE DECK AND THUS ONLY EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REACHING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO WE ADDED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOLLOWING THIS SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP, EXPECT GENERALLY COOL,GRAY,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BUT NOT LOOKING AT ALL DAY RAIN FOR TUESDAY. IN FACT THERE SHOULD
BE ANOTHER LULL IN THE MORNING BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DROP INTO THE 30S WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET FLAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO BIG CHANGES. MODELS SIMILAR WITH COOL WET WEATHER FOR
THE PERIOD. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. JUST BEYOND THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST...LATE SUN NGT CONDITIONS WORSEN TO MVFR AS STEADY RAIN
COMES IN. HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY HERE BUT CLOUDS DO NOT LOWER TO MID
UNTIL EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NE WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS SHIFT TO SE DURING THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE EVENING FURTHER SPEED INCREASES TO 10 TO
15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AVP AND BGM. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AT 40
TO 60 KTS WILL NEED TO ADD LLWS FOR TONIGHT WHEN CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN OVERNIGHT- MON MORNING...WAVE OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MOVING THROUGH. ALSO...LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO
POSSIBLE LLWS.

MON AFTN-THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVE DAY AS AFTERNOON RH
VALUES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S. WE WON`T QUITE MEET RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA HOWEVER EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH BY LATE DAY ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN. SUNSHINE
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON-
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WETTING RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...PCF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 190828
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
428 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY. A LARGE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING RAIN AND
WIND TO THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

FOLLOWING A COOL START, TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LATE IN THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL MARK THE END OF OUR NICE WEEKEND
WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WORK WEEK.
THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHICH
ARE DETAILED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. WE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP
SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND REACH EASTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC.
THE OTHER CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL A
STRENGTHENING SE WIND FIELD IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH WINDS NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL REACHING 35 TO 45 KNOTS
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRENGTHENING SE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE REACHING SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAIN.

FOR MONDAY, RAINY AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING OUT WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY THIS TIME WITH
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER S/SE ZONES THROUGH NE PA INTO
THE CATSKILLS...IN PART DUE TO UPSLOPE EFFECTS. DESPITE THE BREAK
IN PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON, NOT EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT IN ANY REAL SUN
DUE TO SATURATED PROFILES OFF THE DECK AND THUS ONLY EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REACHING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO WE ADDED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOLLOWING THIS SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP, EXPECT GENERALLY COOL,GRAY,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BUT NOT LOOKING AT ALL DAY RAIN FOR TUESDAY. IN FACT THERE SHOULD
BE ANOTHER LULL IN THE MORNING BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DROP INTO THE 30S WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET FLAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO BIG CHANGES. MODELS SIMILAR WITH COOL WET WEATHER FOR
THE PERIOD. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. JUST BEYOND THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST...LATE SUN NGT CONDITIONS WORSEN TO MVFR AS STEADY RAIN
COMES IN. HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY HERE BUT CLOUDS DO NOT LOWER TO MID
UNTIL EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NE WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS SHIFT TO SE DURING THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE EVENING FURTHER SPEED INCREASES TO 10 TO
15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AVP AND BGM. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AT 40
TO 60 KTS WILL NEED TO ADD LLWS FOR TONIGHT WHEN CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN OVERNIGHT- MON MORNING...WAVE OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MOVING THROUGH. ALSO...LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO
POSSIBLE LLWS.

MON AFTN-THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVE DAY AS AFTERNOON RH
VALUES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S. WE WON`T QUITE MEET RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA HOWEVER EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH BY LATE DAY ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN. SUNSHINE
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON-
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WETTING RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 190828
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
428 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY. A LARGE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING RAIN AND
WIND TO THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

FOLLOWING A COOL START, TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LATE IN THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL MARK THE END OF OUR NICE WEEKEND
WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WORK WEEK.
THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHICH
ARE DETAILED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. WE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP
SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND REACH EASTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC.
THE OTHER CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL A
STRENGTHENING SE WIND FIELD IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH WINDS NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL REACHING 35 TO 45 KNOTS
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRENGTHENING SE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE REACHING SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAIN.

FOR MONDAY, RAINY AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING OUT WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY THIS TIME WITH
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER S/SE ZONES THROUGH NE PA INTO
THE CATSKILLS...IN PART DUE TO UPSLOPE EFFECTS. DESPITE THE BREAK
IN PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON, NOT EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT IN ANY REAL SUN
DUE TO SATURATED PROFILES OFF THE DECK AND THUS ONLY EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REACHING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO WE ADDED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOLLOWING THIS SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP, EXPECT GENERALLY COOL,GRAY,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BUT NOT LOOKING AT ALL DAY RAIN FOR TUESDAY. IN FACT THERE SHOULD
BE ANOTHER LULL IN THE MORNING BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DROP INTO THE 30S WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET FLAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO BIG CHANGES. MODELS SIMILAR WITH COOL WET WEATHER FOR
THE PERIOD. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. JUST BEYOND THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST...LATE SUN NGT CONDITIONS WORSEN TO MVFR AS STEADY RAIN
COMES IN. HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY HERE BUT CLOUDS DO NOT LOWER TO MID
UNTIL EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NE WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS SHIFT TO SE DURING THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE EVENING FURTHER SPEED INCREASES TO 10 TO
15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AVP AND BGM. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AT 40
TO 60 KTS WILL NEED TO ADD LLWS FOR TONIGHT WHEN CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN OVERNIGHT- MON MORNING...WAVE OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MOVING THROUGH. ALSO...LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO
POSSIBLE LLWS.

MON AFTN-THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVE DAY AS AFTERNOON RH
VALUES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S. WE WON`T QUITE MEET RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA HOWEVER EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH BY LATE DAY ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN. SUNSHINE
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON-
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WETTING RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 190616
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
216 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY...WITH DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER. A LARGE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING THE AREA RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1025 PM UPDATE...
A FEW HOLDOUTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S PCT RANGE FOR RH...OTHERWISE
MAINLY 30S-40S AT THIS TIME AND RISING. MEANWHILE...QUICK DROP IN
TEMPERATURE ALREADY OCCURRING INCLUDING 45 IN CORTLAND-NORWICH AND
47 IN ELMIRA. TWEAKS MADE TO KEEP UP WITH THESE DETAILS. FORECAST
ON TRACK.

805 PM UPDATE...
WINDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SUBSIDE...WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE BEGUN TO RECOVER AND WILL RISE THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. WITH THE END OF FIRE WEATHER CRITICAL CONDITIONS...RED
FLAG WARNING EXPIRED AT 8 PM AS SCHEDULED. THE DRY COLD FRONT
JUST FINISHED SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
INTRODUCED FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH WILL NOW ACCELERATE INTO TONIGHT AS ALREADY
DISCUSSED BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PEAK WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW AND WILL LAST THROUGH 21Z,
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ANY DIURNAL CU ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW, WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND
SCENARIO, WE WILL BE QUITE CHILLY. OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST PA OR THE
FINGER LAKES, MOST AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY BUT WITH H85 TEMPS ABOUT 2C TO 5C
COOLER, TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER
CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
315 PM UPDATE...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A CUT OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
COLORADO WILL HELP DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WE WILL SEE A ROUND OF STEADY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MID MONDAY MORNING, WELL AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT.

WHILE ALL THIS IS HAPPENING A STRONGER CUT OFF LOW WILL BECOME THE
MAIN PLAYER OVER MINNESOTA AND WILL SLIDE EAST AND DEVELOP A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEAN
TROF AFTER A BREAK IN PRECIP LATER MONDAY, A 2ND ROUND OF RAIN
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD
BECOME DRY SLOTTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER BREAK IN
RAIN BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO BIG CHANGES. MODELS SIMILAR WITH COOL WET WEATHER FOR
THE PERIOD. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. JUST BEYOND THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST...LATE SUN NGT CONDITIONS WORSEN TO MVFR AS STEADY RAIN
COMES IN. HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY HERE BUT CLOUDS DO NOT LOWER TO MID
UNTIL EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NE WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS SHIFT TO SE DURING THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE EVENING FURTHER SPEED INCREASES TO 10 TO
15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AVP AND BGM. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AT 40
TO 60 KTS WILL NEED TO ADD LLWS FOR TONIGHT WHEN CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN OVERNIGHT- MON MORNING...WAVE OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MOVING THROUGH. ALSO...LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO
POSSIBLE LLWS.

MON AFTN-THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
1030 PM UPDATE...
WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS HAVING ENDED...RED FLAG WARNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA TO CATSKILLS NY EXPIRED AS SCHEDULED AT 8 PM.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE A BIT FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVE SUNDAY. DRY
COLD FRONT FINISHED PASSING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND AS A
RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...THE
AIR WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH HUMIDITY PLUMMETING INTO THE 20S
PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS SUNDAY WILL NOT BE AT
CRITICAL VALUES LIKE SATURDAY...BUT THEY WILL VEER IN DIRECTION TO
BE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...REACHING 5-10 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS 15 MPH OR SO IN THE AFTERNOON...SEE FWF FOR SPECIFICS.
SUNSHINE WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING THIN HIGH CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WETTING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/MDP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBGM 190616
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
216 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY...WITH DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER. A LARGE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING THE AREA RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1025 PM UPDATE...
A FEW HOLDOUTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S PCT RANGE FOR RH...OTHERWISE
MAINLY 30S-40S AT THIS TIME AND RISING. MEANWHILE...QUICK DROP IN
TEMPERATURE ALREADY OCCURRING INCLUDING 45 IN CORTLAND-NORWICH AND
47 IN ELMIRA. TWEAKS MADE TO KEEP UP WITH THESE DETAILS. FORECAST
ON TRACK.

805 PM UPDATE...
WINDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SUBSIDE...WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE BEGUN TO RECOVER AND WILL RISE THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. WITH THE END OF FIRE WEATHER CRITICAL CONDITIONS...RED
FLAG WARNING EXPIRED AT 8 PM AS SCHEDULED. THE DRY COLD FRONT
JUST FINISHED SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
INTRODUCED FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH WILL NOW ACCELERATE INTO TONIGHT AS ALREADY
DISCUSSED BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PEAK WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW AND WILL LAST THROUGH 21Z,
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ANY DIURNAL CU ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW, WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND
SCENARIO, WE WILL BE QUITE CHILLY. OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST PA OR THE
FINGER LAKES, MOST AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY BUT WITH H85 TEMPS ABOUT 2C TO 5C
COOLER, TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER
CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
315 PM UPDATE...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A CUT OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
COLORADO WILL HELP DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WE WILL SEE A ROUND OF STEADY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MID MONDAY MORNING, WELL AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT.

WHILE ALL THIS IS HAPPENING A STRONGER CUT OFF LOW WILL BECOME THE
MAIN PLAYER OVER MINNESOTA AND WILL SLIDE EAST AND DEVELOP A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEAN
TROF AFTER A BREAK IN PRECIP LATER MONDAY, A 2ND ROUND OF RAIN
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD
BECOME DRY SLOTTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER BREAK IN
RAIN BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO BIG CHANGES. MODELS SIMILAR WITH COOL WET WEATHER FOR
THE PERIOD. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. JUST BEYOND THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST...LATE SUN NGT CONDITIONS WORSEN TO MVFR AS STEADY RAIN
COMES IN. HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY HERE BUT CLOUDS DO NOT LOWER TO MID
UNTIL EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NE WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS SHIFT TO SE DURING THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE EVENING FURTHER SPEED INCREASES TO 10 TO
15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AVP AND BGM. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AT 40
TO 60 KTS WILL NEED TO ADD LLWS FOR TONIGHT WHEN CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN OVERNIGHT- MON MORNING...WAVE OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MOVING THROUGH. ALSO...LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO
POSSIBLE LLWS.

MON AFTN-THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
1030 PM UPDATE...
WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS HAVING ENDED...RED FLAG WARNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA TO CATSKILLS NY EXPIRED AS SCHEDULED AT 8 PM.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE A BIT FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVE SUNDAY. DRY
COLD FRONT FINISHED PASSING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND AS A
RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...THE
AIR WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH HUMIDITY PLUMMETING INTO THE 20S
PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS SUNDAY WILL NOT BE AT
CRITICAL VALUES LIKE SATURDAY...BUT THEY WILL VEER IN DIRECTION TO
BE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...REACHING 5-10 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS 15 MPH OR SO IN THE AFTERNOON...SEE FWF FOR SPECIFICS.
SUNSHINE WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING THIN HIGH CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WETTING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/MDP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBGM 190238
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1038 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER. A LARGE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING THE AREA
RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1025 PM UPDATE...
A FEW HOLDOUTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S PCT RANGE FOR RH...OTHERWISE
MAINLY 30S-40S AT THIS TIME AND RISING. MEANWHILE...QUICK DROP IN
TEMPERATURE ALREADY OCCURRING INCLUDING 45 IN CORTLAND-NORWICH AND
47 IN ELMIRA. TWEAKS MADE TO KEEP UP WITH THESE DETAILS. FORECAST
ON TRACK.

805 PM UPDATE...
WINDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SUBSIDE...WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE BEGUN TO RECOVER AND WILL RISE THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. WITH THE END OF FIRE WEATHER CRITICAL CONDITIONS...RED
FLAG WARNING EXPIRED AT 8 PM AS SCHEDULED. THE DRY COLD FRONT
JUST FINISHED SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
INTRODUCED FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH WILL NOW ACCELERATE INTO TONIGHT AS ALREADY
DISCUSSED BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PEAK WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW AND WILL LAST THROUGH 21Z,
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ANY DIURNAL CU ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW, WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND
SCENARIO, WE WILL BE QUITE CHILLY. OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST PA OR THE
FINGER LAKES, MOST AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY BUT WITH H85 TEMPS ABOUT 2C TO 5C
COOLER, TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER
CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A CUT OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
COLORADO WILL HELP DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WE WILL SEE A ROUND OF STEADY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MID MONDAY MORNING, WELL AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT.

WHILE ALL THIS IS HAPPENING A STRONGER CUT OFF LOW WILL BECOME THE
MAIN PLAYER OVER MINNESOTA AND WILL SLIDE EAST AND DEVELOP A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEAN
TROF AFTER A BREAK IN PRECIP LATER MONDAY, A 2ND ROUND OF RAIN
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD
BECOME DRY SLOTTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER BREAK IN
RAIN BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NNW EARLY EVENING TO VARIABLE/LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT...THEN
INCREASING SE-SSE TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGH
THIN CLOUDS 20-25KFT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WAVE OF RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-EARLY MON...WAVE OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MOVING THROUGH. ALSO...LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE LLWS.

MON-THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
1030 PM UPDATE...
WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS HAVING ENDED...RED FLAG WARNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA TO CATSKILLS NY EXPIRED AS SCHEDULED AT 8 PM.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE A BIT FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVE SUNDAY. DRY
COLD FRONT FINISHED PASSING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND AS A
RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...THE
AIR WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH HUMIDITY PLUMMETING INTO THE 20S
PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS SUNDAY WILL NOT BE AT
CRITICAL VALUES LIKE SATURDAY...BUT THEY WILL VEER IN DIRECTION TO
BE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...REACHING 5-10 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS 15 MPH OR SO IN THE AFTERNOON...SEE FWF FOR SPECIFICS.
SUNSHINE WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING THIN HIGH CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WETTING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/MDP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 190238
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1038 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER. A LARGE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING THE AREA
RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1025 PM UPDATE...
A FEW HOLDOUTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S PCT RANGE FOR RH...OTHERWISE
MAINLY 30S-40S AT THIS TIME AND RISING. MEANWHILE...QUICK DROP IN
TEMPERATURE ALREADY OCCURRING INCLUDING 45 IN CORTLAND-NORWICH AND
47 IN ELMIRA. TWEAKS MADE TO KEEP UP WITH THESE DETAILS. FORECAST
ON TRACK.

805 PM UPDATE...
WINDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SUBSIDE...WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE BEGUN TO RECOVER AND WILL RISE THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. WITH THE END OF FIRE WEATHER CRITICAL CONDITIONS...RED
FLAG WARNING EXPIRED AT 8 PM AS SCHEDULED. THE DRY COLD FRONT
JUST FINISHED SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
INTRODUCED FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH WILL NOW ACCELERATE INTO TONIGHT AS ALREADY
DISCUSSED BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PEAK WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW AND WILL LAST THROUGH 21Z,
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ANY DIURNAL CU ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW, WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND
SCENARIO, WE WILL BE QUITE CHILLY. OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST PA OR THE
FINGER LAKES, MOST AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY BUT WITH H85 TEMPS ABOUT 2C TO 5C
COOLER, TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER
CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A CUT OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
COLORADO WILL HELP DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WE WILL SEE A ROUND OF STEADY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MID MONDAY MORNING, WELL AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT.

WHILE ALL THIS IS HAPPENING A STRONGER CUT OFF LOW WILL BECOME THE
MAIN PLAYER OVER MINNESOTA AND WILL SLIDE EAST AND DEVELOP A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEAN
TROF AFTER A BREAK IN PRECIP LATER MONDAY, A 2ND ROUND OF RAIN
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD
BECOME DRY SLOTTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER BREAK IN
RAIN BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NNW EARLY EVENING TO VARIABLE/LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT...THEN
INCREASING SE-SSE TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGH
THIN CLOUDS 20-25KFT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WAVE OF RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-EARLY MON...WAVE OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MOVING THROUGH. ALSO...LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE LLWS.

MON-THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
1030 PM UPDATE...
WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS HAVING ENDED...RED FLAG WARNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA TO CATSKILLS NY EXPIRED AS SCHEDULED AT 8 PM.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE A BIT FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVE SUNDAY. DRY
COLD FRONT FINISHED PASSING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND AS A
RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...THE
AIR WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH HUMIDITY PLUMMETING INTO THE 20S
PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS SUNDAY WILL NOT BE AT
CRITICAL VALUES LIKE SATURDAY...BUT THEY WILL VEER IN DIRECTION TO
BE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...REACHING 5-10 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS 15 MPH OR SO IN THE AFTERNOON...SEE FWF FOR SPECIFICS.
SUNSHINE WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING THIN HIGH CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WETTING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/MDP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 190238
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1038 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER. A LARGE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING THE AREA
RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1025 PM UPDATE...
A FEW HOLDOUTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S PCT RANGE FOR RH...OTHERWISE
MAINLY 30S-40S AT THIS TIME AND RISING. MEANWHILE...QUICK DROP IN
TEMPERATURE ALREADY OCCURRING INCLUDING 45 IN CORTLAND-NORWICH AND
47 IN ELMIRA. TWEAKS MADE TO KEEP UP WITH THESE DETAILS. FORECAST
ON TRACK.

805 PM UPDATE...
WINDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SUBSIDE...WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE BEGUN TO RECOVER AND WILL RISE THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. WITH THE END OF FIRE WEATHER CRITICAL CONDITIONS...RED
FLAG WARNING EXPIRED AT 8 PM AS SCHEDULED. THE DRY COLD FRONT
JUST FINISHED SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
INTRODUCED FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH WILL NOW ACCELERATE INTO TONIGHT AS ALREADY
DISCUSSED BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PEAK WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW AND WILL LAST THROUGH 21Z,
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ANY DIURNAL CU ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW, WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND
SCENARIO, WE WILL BE QUITE CHILLY. OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST PA OR THE
FINGER LAKES, MOST AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY BUT WITH H85 TEMPS ABOUT 2C TO 5C
COOLER, TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER
CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A CUT OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
COLORADO WILL HELP DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WE WILL SEE A ROUND OF STEADY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MID MONDAY MORNING, WELL AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT.

WHILE ALL THIS IS HAPPENING A STRONGER CUT OFF LOW WILL BECOME THE
MAIN PLAYER OVER MINNESOTA AND WILL SLIDE EAST AND DEVELOP A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEAN
TROF AFTER A BREAK IN PRECIP LATER MONDAY, A 2ND ROUND OF RAIN
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD
BECOME DRY SLOTTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER BREAK IN
RAIN BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NNW EARLY EVENING TO VARIABLE/LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT...THEN
INCREASING SE-SSE TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGH
THIN CLOUDS 20-25KFT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WAVE OF RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-EARLY MON...WAVE OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MOVING THROUGH. ALSO...LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE LLWS.

MON-THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
1030 PM UPDATE...
WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS HAVING ENDED...RED FLAG WARNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA TO CATSKILLS NY EXPIRED AS SCHEDULED AT 8 PM.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE A BIT FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVE SUNDAY. DRY
COLD FRONT FINISHED PASSING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND AS A
RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...THE
AIR WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH HUMIDITY PLUMMETING INTO THE 20S
PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS SUNDAY WILL NOT BE AT
CRITICAL VALUES LIKE SATURDAY...BUT THEY WILL VEER IN DIRECTION TO
BE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...REACHING 5-10 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS 15 MPH OR SO IN THE AFTERNOON...SEE FWF FOR SPECIFICS.
SUNSHINE WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING THIN HIGH CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WETTING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/MDP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 190238
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1038 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER. A LARGE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING THE AREA
RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1025 PM UPDATE...
A FEW HOLDOUTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S PCT RANGE FOR RH...OTHERWISE
MAINLY 30S-40S AT THIS TIME AND RISING. MEANWHILE...QUICK DROP IN
TEMPERATURE ALREADY OCCURRING INCLUDING 45 IN CORTLAND-NORWICH AND
47 IN ELMIRA. TWEAKS MADE TO KEEP UP WITH THESE DETAILS. FORECAST
ON TRACK.

805 PM UPDATE...
WINDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SUBSIDE...WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE BEGUN TO RECOVER AND WILL RISE THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. WITH THE END OF FIRE WEATHER CRITICAL CONDITIONS...RED
FLAG WARNING EXPIRED AT 8 PM AS SCHEDULED. THE DRY COLD FRONT
JUST FINISHED SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
INTRODUCED FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH WILL NOW ACCELERATE INTO TONIGHT AS ALREADY
DISCUSSED BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PEAK WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW AND WILL LAST THROUGH 21Z,
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ANY DIURNAL CU ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW, WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND
SCENARIO, WE WILL BE QUITE CHILLY. OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST PA OR THE
FINGER LAKES, MOST AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY BUT WITH H85 TEMPS ABOUT 2C TO 5C
COOLER, TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER
CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A CUT OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
COLORADO WILL HELP DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WE WILL SEE A ROUND OF STEADY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MID MONDAY MORNING, WELL AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT.

WHILE ALL THIS IS HAPPENING A STRONGER CUT OFF LOW WILL BECOME THE
MAIN PLAYER OVER MINNESOTA AND WILL SLIDE EAST AND DEVELOP A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEAN
TROF AFTER A BREAK IN PRECIP LATER MONDAY, A 2ND ROUND OF RAIN
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD
BECOME DRY SLOTTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER BREAK IN
RAIN BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NNW EARLY EVENING TO VARIABLE/LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT...THEN
INCREASING SE-SSE TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGH
THIN CLOUDS 20-25KFT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WAVE OF RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-EARLY MON...WAVE OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MOVING THROUGH. ALSO...LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE LLWS.

MON-THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
1030 PM UPDATE...
WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS HAVING ENDED...RED FLAG WARNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA TO CATSKILLS NY EXPIRED AS SCHEDULED AT 8 PM.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE A BIT FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVE SUNDAY. DRY
COLD FRONT FINISHED PASSING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND AS A
RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...THE
AIR WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH HUMIDITY PLUMMETING INTO THE 20S
PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS SUNDAY WILL NOT BE AT
CRITICAL VALUES LIKE SATURDAY...BUT THEY WILL VEER IN DIRECTION TO
BE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...REACHING 5-10 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS 15 MPH OR SO IN THE AFTERNOON...SEE FWF FOR SPECIFICS.
SUNSHINE WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING THIN HIGH CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WETTING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/MDP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 190021
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
821 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER. A LARGE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING THE AREA RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
805 PM UPDATE...
WINDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SUBSIDE...WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE BEGUN TO RECOVER AND WILL RISE THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. WITH THE END OF FIRE WEATHER CRITICAL CONDITIONS...RED
FLAG WARNING EXPIRED AT 8 PM AS SCHEDULED. THE DRY COLD FRONT
JUST FINISHED SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
INTRODUCED FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH WILL NOW ACCELERATE INTO TONIGHT AS ALREADY
DISCUSSED BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PEAK WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW AND WILL LAST THROUGH 21Z,
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ANY DIURNAL CU ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW, WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND
SCENARIO, WE WILL BE QUITE CHILLY. OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST PA OR THE
FINGER LAKES, MOST AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY BUT WITH H85 TEMPS ABOUT 2C TO 5C
COOLER, TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER
CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A CUT OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
COLORADO WILL HELP DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WE WILL SEE A ROUND OF STEADY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MID MONDAY MORNING, WELL AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT.

WHILE ALL THIS IS HAPPENING A STRONGER CUT OFF LOW WILL BECOME THE
MAIN PLAYER OVER MINNESOTA AND WILL SLIDE EAST AND DEVELOP A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEAN
TROF AFTER A BREAK IN PRECIP LATER MONDAY, A 2ND ROUND OF RAIN
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD
BECOME DRY SLOTTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER BREAK IN
RAIN BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NNW EARLY EVENING TO VARIABLE/LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT...THEN
INCREASING SE-SSE TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGH
THIN CLOUDS 20-25KFT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WAVE OF RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-EARLY MON...WAVE OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MOVING THROUGH. ALSO...LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE LLWS.

MON-THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/MDP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 190021
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
821 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER. A LARGE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING THE AREA RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
805 PM UPDATE...
WINDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SUBSIDE...WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE BEGUN TO RECOVER AND WILL RISE THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. WITH THE END OF FIRE WEATHER CRITICAL CONDITIONS...RED
FLAG WARNING EXPIRED AT 8 PM AS SCHEDULED. THE DRY COLD FRONT
JUST FINISHED SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
INTRODUCED FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH WILL NOW ACCELERATE INTO TONIGHT AS ALREADY
DISCUSSED BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PEAK WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW AND WILL LAST THROUGH 21Z,
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ANY DIURNAL CU ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW, WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND
SCENARIO, WE WILL BE QUITE CHILLY. OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST PA OR THE
FINGER LAKES, MOST AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY BUT WITH H85 TEMPS ABOUT 2C TO 5C
COOLER, TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER
CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A CUT OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
COLORADO WILL HELP DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WE WILL SEE A ROUND OF STEADY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MID MONDAY MORNING, WELL AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT.

WHILE ALL THIS IS HAPPENING A STRONGER CUT OFF LOW WILL BECOME THE
MAIN PLAYER OVER MINNESOTA AND WILL SLIDE EAST AND DEVELOP A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEAN
TROF AFTER A BREAK IN PRECIP LATER MONDAY, A 2ND ROUND OF RAIN
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD
BECOME DRY SLOTTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER BREAK IN
RAIN BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NNW EARLY EVENING TO VARIABLE/LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT...THEN
INCREASING SE-SSE TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGH
THIN CLOUDS 20-25KFT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WAVE OF RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-EARLY MON...WAVE OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MOVING THROUGH. ALSO...LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE LLWS.

MON-THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/MDP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 190021
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
821 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER. A LARGE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING THE AREA RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
805 PM UPDATE...
WINDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SUBSIDE...WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE BEGUN TO RECOVER AND WILL RISE THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. WITH THE END OF FIRE WEATHER CRITICAL CONDITIONS...RED
FLAG WARNING EXPIRED AT 8 PM AS SCHEDULED. THE DRY COLD FRONT
JUST FINISHED SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
INTRODUCED FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH WILL NOW ACCELERATE INTO TONIGHT AS ALREADY
DISCUSSED BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PEAK WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW AND WILL LAST THROUGH 21Z,
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ANY DIURNAL CU ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW, WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND
SCENARIO, WE WILL BE QUITE CHILLY. OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST PA OR THE
FINGER LAKES, MOST AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY BUT WITH H85 TEMPS ABOUT 2C TO 5C
COOLER, TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER
CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A CUT OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
COLORADO WILL HELP DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WE WILL SEE A ROUND OF STEADY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MID MONDAY MORNING, WELL AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT.

WHILE ALL THIS IS HAPPENING A STRONGER CUT OFF LOW WILL BECOME THE
MAIN PLAYER OVER MINNESOTA AND WILL SLIDE EAST AND DEVELOP A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEAN
TROF AFTER A BREAK IN PRECIP LATER MONDAY, A 2ND ROUND OF RAIN
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD
BECOME DRY SLOTTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER BREAK IN
RAIN BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NNW EARLY EVENING TO VARIABLE/LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT...THEN
INCREASING SE-SSE TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGH
THIN CLOUDS 20-25KFT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WAVE OF RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-EARLY MON...WAVE OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MOVING THROUGH. ALSO...LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE LLWS.

MON-THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/MDP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 181949
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
349 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY. A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING
THE AREA RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PEAK
WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW AND WILL LAST THROUGH 21Z, BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ANY DIURNAL CU ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW, WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND SCENARIO,
WE WILL BE QUITE CHILLY. OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST PA OR THE FINGER
LAKES, MOST AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY BUT WITH H85 TEMPS ABOUT 2C TO 5C
COOLER, TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER
CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A CUT OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
COLORADO WILL HELP DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WE WILL SEE A ROUND OF STEADY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MID MONDAY MORNING, WELL AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT.

WHILE ALL THIS IS HAPPENING A STRONGER CUT OFF LOW WILL BECOME THE
MAIN PLAYER OVER MINNESOTA AND WILL SLIDE EAST AND DEVELOP A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEAN
TROF AFTER A BREAK IN PRECIP LATER MONDAY, A 2ND ROUND OF RAIN
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD
BECOME DRY SLOTTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER BREAK IN
RAIN BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS AT
6K FT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED CI ON SUNDAY. VALLEY FOG NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SFC
TROF WITH MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 12-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. E/SE WINDS ON SUNDAY AROUND
5-8 KNOTS

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-THU...RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESPECIALLY SUN NGT TO MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR
NORTHEAST PA ZONES AS WELL AS SULLIVAN, DELAWARE, AND OTSEGO
COUNTIES IN NY DUE TO DRY FINE FUELS, DROPPING RH VALUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BELOW 30 PERCENT, AND GUSTY NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35
MPH. THESE FACTORS WILL ALL COMBINE TO CREATE VERY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF ANY OUTDOOR FIRES. FOR THE
REMAINING ZONES ACROSS CENTRAL NY, FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL ALSO
BE MODERATE TO HIGH HOWEVER THESE AREAS FALL JUST SHORT OF RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS THIS PAST
WEEK EXCEEDING A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INCREASE ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-057-
     062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBGM 181923
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
323 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY. A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING
THE AREA RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PEAK
WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW AND WILL LAST THROUGH 21Z, BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ANY DIURNAL CU ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW, WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND SCENARIO,
WE WILL BE QUITE CHILLY. OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST PA OR THE FINGER
LAKES, MOST AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY BUT WITH H85 TEMPS ABOUT 2C TO 5C
COOLER, TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER
CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A CUT OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
COLORADO WILL HELP DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WE WILL SEE A ROUND OF STEADY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MID MONDAY MORNING, WELL AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT.

WHILE ALL THIS IS HAPPENING A STRONGER CUT OFF LOW WILL BECOME THE
MAIN PLAYER OVER MINNESOTA AND WILL SLIDE EAST AND DEVELOP A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEAN
TROF AFTER A BREAK IN PRECIP LATER MONDAY, A 2ND ROUND OF RAIN
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD
BECOME DRY SLOTTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER BREAK IN
RAIN BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL DAMP PERIOD.
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO SAY IF
IT WILL ACCUMULATE. MODELS STILL SIMILAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD
SHOWING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SFC OCCLUSION IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WED NIGHT/THURSDAY NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS AT
6K FT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED CI ON SUNDAY. VALLEY FOG NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SFC
TROF WITH MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 12-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. E/SE WINDS ON SUNDAY AROUND
5-8 KNOTS

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-THU...RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESPECIALLY SUN NGT TO MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR
NORTHEAST PA ZONES AS WELL AS SULLIVAN, DELAWARE, AND OTSEGO
COUNTIES IN NY DUE TO DRY FINE FUELS, DROPPING RH VALUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BELOW 30 PERCENT, AND GUSTY NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35
MPH. THESE FACTORS WILL ALL COMBINE TO CREATE VERY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF ANY OUTDOOR FIRES. FOR THE
REMAINING ZONES ACROSS CENTRAL NY, FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL ALSO
BE MODERATE TO HIGH HOWEVER THESE AREAS FALL JUST SHORT OF RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS THIS PAST
WEEK EXCEEDING A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INCREASE ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-057-
     062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBGM 181923
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
323 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY. A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING
THE AREA RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PEAK
WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW AND WILL LAST THROUGH 21Z, BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ANY DIURNAL CU ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW, WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND SCENARIO,
WE WILL BE QUITE CHILLY. OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST PA OR THE FINGER
LAKES, MOST AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY BUT WITH H85 TEMPS ABOUT 2C TO 5C
COOLER, TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER
CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A CUT OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
COLORADO WILL HELP DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WE WILL SEE A ROUND OF STEADY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MID MONDAY MORNING, WELL AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT.

WHILE ALL THIS IS HAPPENING A STRONGER CUT OFF LOW WILL BECOME THE
MAIN PLAYER OVER MINNESOTA AND WILL SLIDE EAST AND DEVELOP A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEAN
TROF AFTER A BREAK IN PRECIP LATER MONDAY, A 2ND ROUND OF RAIN
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD
BECOME DRY SLOTTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER BREAK IN
RAIN BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL DAMP PERIOD.
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO SAY IF
IT WILL ACCUMULATE. MODELS STILL SIMILAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD
SHOWING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SFC OCCLUSION IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WED NIGHT/THURSDAY NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS AT
6K FT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED CI ON SUNDAY. VALLEY FOG NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SFC
TROF WITH MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 12-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. E/SE WINDS ON SUNDAY AROUND
5-8 KNOTS

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-THU...RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESPECIALLY SUN NGT TO MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR
NORTHEAST PA ZONES AS WELL AS SULLIVAN, DELAWARE, AND OTSEGO
COUNTIES IN NY DUE TO DRY FINE FUELS, DROPPING RH VALUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BELOW 30 PERCENT, AND GUSTY NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35
MPH. THESE FACTORS WILL ALL COMBINE TO CREATE VERY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF ANY OUTDOOR FIRES. FOR THE
REMAINING ZONES ACROSS CENTRAL NY, FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL ALSO
BE MODERATE TO HIGH HOWEVER THESE AREAS FALL JUST SHORT OF RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS THIS PAST
WEEK EXCEEDING A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INCREASE ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-057-
     062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBGM 181821
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY. A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING
THE AREA RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PEAK
WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW AND WILL LAST THROUGH 21Z, BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ANY DIURNAL CU ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW, WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND SCENARIO,
WE WILL BE QUITE CHILLY. OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST PA OR THE FINGER
LAKES, MOST AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY BUT WITH H85 TEMPS ABOUT 2C TO 5C
COOLER, TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER
CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DIMINISHING WINDS, DROPPING TEMPS, AND RISING RH VALUES WILL
RESULT IN A QUICKLY DIMINISHING FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET. AS THE
HIGH SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY, CONDITIONS WILL DAWN MAINLY SUNNY WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING RIGHT OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND A LARGE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

CLOUDS THICKEN UP SUNDAY EVENING WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE
AREA FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA AHEAD OF A BROAD,
DIGGING H500 MB TROUGH. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN OVERALL PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THE GFS IS JUST A BIT
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. STRONG SE LLJ WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF
THE ATLANTIC SUPPORTS DECENT SLUG OF QPF WITH UPWARDS OF A HALF
INCH OF RAIN OR SO LIKELY BY THE TIME THIS FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO FALL
OVER SE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE POCONOS
AND CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPING.

FOLLOWING THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK
DURING THE LATTER PART OF MONDAY THOUGH NOT OPTIMISTIC THERE WILL
BE MUCH SUN. THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SLUG OF
SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND A SFC COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL DAMP PERIOD.
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO SAY IF
IT WILL ACCUMULATE. MODELS STILL SIMILAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD
SHOWING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SFC OCCLUSION IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WED NIGHT/THURSDAY NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS AT
6K FT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED CI ON SUNDAY. VALLEY FOG NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SFC
TROF WITH MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 12-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. E/SE WINDS ON SUNDAY AROUND
5-8 KNOTS

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-THU...RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESPECIALLY SUN NGT TO MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR
NORTHEAST PA ZONES AS WELL AS SULLIVAN, DELAWARE, AND OTSEGO
COUNTIES IN NY DUE TO DRY FINE FUELS, DROPPING RH VALUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BELOW 30 PERCENT, AND GUSTY NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35
MPH. THESE FACTORS WILL ALL COMBINE TO CREATE VERY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF ANY OUTDOOR FIRES. FOR THE
REMAINING ZONES ACROSS CENTRAL NY, FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL ALSO
BE MODERATE TO HIGH HOWEVER THESE AREAS FALL JUST SHORT OF RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS THIS PAST
WEEK EXCEEDING A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INCREASE ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-057-
     062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBGM 181821
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY. A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING
THE AREA RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PEAK
WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW AND WILL LAST THROUGH 21Z, BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ANY DIURNAL CU ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW, WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND SCENARIO,
WE WILL BE QUITE CHILLY. OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST PA OR THE FINGER
LAKES, MOST AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY BUT WITH H85 TEMPS ABOUT 2C TO 5C
COOLER, TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER
CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DIMINISHING WINDS, DROPPING TEMPS, AND RISING RH VALUES WILL
RESULT IN A QUICKLY DIMINISHING FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET. AS THE
HIGH SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY, CONDITIONS WILL DAWN MAINLY SUNNY WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING RIGHT OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND A LARGE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

CLOUDS THICKEN UP SUNDAY EVENING WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE
AREA FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA AHEAD OF A BROAD,
DIGGING H500 MB TROUGH. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN OVERALL PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THE GFS IS JUST A BIT
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. STRONG SE LLJ WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF
THE ATLANTIC SUPPORTS DECENT SLUG OF QPF WITH UPWARDS OF A HALF
INCH OF RAIN OR SO LIKELY BY THE TIME THIS FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO FALL
OVER SE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE POCONOS
AND CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPING.

FOLLOWING THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK
DURING THE LATTER PART OF MONDAY THOUGH NOT OPTIMISTIC THERE WILL
BE MUCH SUN. THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SLUG OF
SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND A SFC COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL DAMP PERIOD.
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO SAY IF
IT WILL ACCUMULATE. MODELS STILL SIMILAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD
SHOWING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SFC OCCLUSION IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WED NIGHT/THURSDAY NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS AT
6K FT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED CI ON SUNDAY. VALLEY FOG NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SFC
TROF WITH MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 12-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. E/SE WINDS ON SUNDAY AROUND
5-8 KNOTS

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-THU...RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESPECIALLY SUN NGT TO MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR
NORTHEAST PA ZONES AS WELL AS SULLIVAN, DELAWARE, AND OTSEGO
COUNTIES IN NY DUE TO DRY FINE FUELS, DROPPING RH VALUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BELOW 30 PERCENT, AND GUSTY NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35
MPH. THESE FACTORS WILL ALL COMBINE TO CREATE VERY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF ANY OUTDOOR FIRES. FOR THE
REMAINING ZONES ACROSS CENTRAL NY, FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL ALSO
BE MODERATE TO HIGH HOWEVER THESE AREAS FALL JUST SHORT OF RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS THIS PAST
WEEK EXCEEDING A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INCREASE ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-057-
     062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBGM 181748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY. A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING
THE AREA RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HOURLY TEMPS ALREADY A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL IN
MANY SPOTS. WITH GREAT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON (UP THROUGH 800 MB),
I INCREASED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES. I ALSO RAISED
DEW POINTS THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE ARE RUNNING HIGH NOW. DEW
POINTS REALLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE AND THE
FINGER LAKES, WHERE THEY MAY FALL INTO THE 20S IN SPOTS. IN
ADDITION WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH LOOK GOOD, WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY ON THE HILLTOPS.

0615 AM UPDATE...BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS, FOG IS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
EXPECTED SO WE EXPANDED THE COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE ALL AREAS EAST EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NOT JUST THE RIVER VALLEYS. AN
SPS HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA MENTIONING VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER TO HALF MILE IN SPOTS. FOG WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE AND BE GONE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE, ALSO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING TEMPS, DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP CLOSE TO DEW
POINTS RESULTING IN RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING GUSTY WINDS AND FALLING DEW POINTS IN ITS
WAKE RESULTING IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER. AS A RESULT WE HAVE ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR SULLIVAN, DELAWARE, AND OTSEGO COUNTIES IN NY
AS WELL AS ALL OF OUR NE PA ZONES. THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH BY THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE CONTINUE TO NOT
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS THE BEST
ENERGY WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NE AND ALSO THE PROFILES WILL BE TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN FAIR
WEATHER CU TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DIMINISHING WINDS, DROPPING TEMPS, AND RISING RH VALUES WILL
RESULT IN A QUICKLY DIMINISHING FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET. AS THE
HIGH SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY, CONDITIONS WILL DAWN MAINLY SUNNY WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING RIGHT OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND A LARGE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

CLOUDS THICKEN UP SUNDAY EVENING WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE
AREA FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA AHEAD OF A BROAD,
DIGGING H500 MB TROUGH. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN OVERALL PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THE GFS IS JUST A BIT
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. STRONG SE LLJ WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF
THE ATLANTIC SUPPORTS DECENT SLUG OF QPF WITH UPWARDS OF A HALF
INCH OF RAIN OR SO LIKELY BY THE TIME THIS FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO FALL
OVER SE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE POCONOS
AND CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPING.

FOLLOWING THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK
DURING THE LATTER PART OF MONDAY THOUGH NOT OPTIMISTIC THERE WILL
BE MUCH SUN. THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SLUG OF
SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND A SFC COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL DAMP PERIOD.
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO SAY IF
IT WILL ACCUMULATE. MODELS STILL SIMILAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD
SHOWING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SFC OCCLUSION IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WED NIGHT/THURSDAY NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS AT
6K FT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED CI ON SUNDAY. VALLEY FOG NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SFC
TROF WITH MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 12-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. E/SE WINDS ON SUNDAY AROUND
5-8 KNOTS

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-THU...RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESPECIALLY SUN NGT TO MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR
NORTHEAST PA ZONES AS WELL AS SULLIVAN, DELAWARE, AND OTSEGO
COUNTIES IN NY DUE TO DRY FINE FUELS, DROPPING RH VALUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BELOW 30 PERCENT, AND GUSTY NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35
MPH. THESE FACTORS WILL ALL COMBINE TO CREATE VERY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF ANY OUTDOOR FIRES. FOR THE
REMAINING ZONES ACROSS CENTRAL NY, FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL ALSO
BE MODERATE TO HIGH HOWEVER THESE AREAS FALL JUST SHORT OF RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS THIS PAST
WEEK EXCEEDING A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INCREASE ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-057-
     062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBGM 181748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY. A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING
THE AREA RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HOURLY TEMPS ALREADY A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL IN
MANY SPOTS. WITH GREAT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON (UP THROUGH 800 MB),
I INCREASED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES. I ALSO RAISED
DEW POINTS THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE ARE RUNNING HIGH NOW. DEW
POINTS REALLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE AND THE
FINGER LAKES, WHERE THEY MAY FALL INTO THE 20S IN SPOTS. IN
ADDITION WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH LOOK GOOD, WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY ON THE HILLTOPS.

0615 AM UPDATE...BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS, FOG IS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
EXPECTED SO WE EXPANDED THE COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE ALL AREAS EAST EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NOT JUST THE RIVER VALLEYS. AN
SPS HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA MENTIONING VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER TO HALF MILE IN SPOTS. FOG WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE AND BE GONE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE, ALSO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING TEMPS, DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP CLOSE TO DEW
POINTS RESULTING IN RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING GUSTY WINDS AND FALLING DEW POINTS IN ITS
WAKE RESULTING IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER. AS A RESULT WE HAVE ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR SULLIVAN, DELAWARE, AND OTSEGO COUNTIES IN NY
AS WELL AS ALL OF OUR NE PA ZONES. THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH BY THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE CONTINUE TO NOT
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS THE BEST
ENERGY WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NE AND ALSO THE PROFILES WILL BE TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN FAIR
WEATHER CU TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DIMINISHING WINDS, DROPPING TEMPS, AND RISING RH VALUES WILL
RESULT IN A QUICKLY DIMINISHING FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET. AS THE
HIGH SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY, CONDITIONS WILL DAWN MAINLY SUNNY WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING RIGHT OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND A LARGE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

CLOUDS THICKEN UP SUNDAY EVENING WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE
AREA FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA AHEAD OF A BROAD,
DIGGING H500 MB TROUGH. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN OVERALL PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THE GFS IS JUST A BIT
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. STRONG SE LLJ WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF
THE ATLANTIC SUPPORTS DECENT SLUG OF QPF WITH UPWARDS OF A HALF
INCH OF RAIN OR SO LIKELY BY THE TIME THIS FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO FALL
OVER SE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE POCONOS
AND CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPING.

FOLLOWING THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK
DURING THE LATTER PART OF MONDAY THOUGH NOT OPTIMISTIC THERE WILL
BE MUCH SUN. THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SLUG OF
SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND A SFC COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL DAMP PERIOD.
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO SAY IF
IT WILL ACCUMULATE. MODELS STILL SIMILAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD
SHOWING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SFC OCCLUSION IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WED NIGHT/THURSDAY NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS AT
6K FT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED CI ON SUNDAY. VALLEY FOG NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SFC
TROF WITH MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 12-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. E/SE WINDS ON SUNDAY AROUND
5-8 KNOTS

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-THU...RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESPECIALLY SUN NGT TO MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR
NORTHEAST PA ZONES AS WELL AS SULLIVAN, DELAWARE, AND OTSEGO
COUNTIES IN NY DUE TO DRY FINE FUELS, DROPPING RH VALUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BELOW 30 PERCENT, AND GUSTY NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35
MPH. THESE FACTORS WILL ALL COMBINE TO CREATE VERY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF ANY OUTDOOR FIRES. FOR THE
REMAINING ZONES ACROSS CENTRAL NY, FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL ALSO
BE MODERATE TO HIGH HOWEVER THESE AREAS FALL JUST SHORT OF RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS THIS PAST
WEEK EXCEEDING A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INCREASE ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-057-
     062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBGM 181748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY. A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING
THE AREA RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HOURLY TEMPS ALREADY A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL IN
MANY SPOTS. WITH GREAT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON (UP THROUGH 800 MB),
I INCREASED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES. I ALSO RAISED
DEW POINTS THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE ARE RUNNING HIGH NOW. DEW
POINTS REALLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE AND THE
FINGER LAKES, WHERE THEY MAY FALL INTO THE 20S IN SPOTS. IN
ADDITION WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH LOOK GOOD, WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY ON THE HILLTOPS.

0615 AM UPDATE...BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS, FOG IS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
EXPECTED SO WE EXPANDED THE COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE ALL AREAS EAST EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NOT JUST THE RIVER VALLEYS. AN
SPS HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA MENTIONING VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER TO HALF MILE IN SPOTS. FOG WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE AND BE GONE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE, ALSO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING TEMPS, DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP CLOSE TO DEW
POINTS RESULTING IN RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING GUSTY WINDS AND FALLING DEW POINTS IN ITS
WAKE RESULTING IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER. AS A RESULT WE HAVE ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR SULLIVAN, DELAWARE, AND OTSEGO COUNTIES IN NY
AS WELL AS ALL OF OUR NE PA ZONES. THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH BY THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE CONTINUE TO NOT
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS THE BEST
ENERGY WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NE AND ALSO THE PROFILES WILL BE TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN FAIR
WEATHER CU TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DIMINISHING WINDS, DROPPING TEMPS, AND RISING RH VALUES WILL
RESULT IN A QUICKLY DIMINISHING FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET. AS THE
HIGH SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY, CONDITIONS WILL DAWN MAINLY SUNNY WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING RIGHT OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND A LARGE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

CLOUDS THICKEN UP SUNDAY EVENING WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE
AREA FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA AHEAD OF A BROAD,
DIGGING H500 MB TROUGH. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN OVERALL PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THE GFS IS JUST A BIT
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. STRONG SE LLJ WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF
THE ATLANTIC SUPPORTS DECENT SLUG OF QPF WITH UPWARDS OF A HALF
INCH OF RAIN OR SO LIKELY BY THE TIME THIS FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO FALL
OVER SE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE POCONOS
AND CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPING.

FOLLOWING THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK
DURING THE LATTER PART OF MONDAY THOUGH NOT OPTIMISTIC THERE WILL
BE MUCH SUN. THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SLUG OF
SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND A SFC COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL DAMP PERIOD.
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO SAY IF
IT WILL ACCUMULATE. MODELS STILL SIMILAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD
SHOWING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SFC OCCLUSION IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WED NIGHT/THURSDAY NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS AT
6K FT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED CI ON SUNDAY. VALLEY FOG NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SFC
TROF WITH MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 12-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. E/SE WINDS ON SUNDAY AROUND
5-8 KNOTS

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-THU...RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESPECIALLY SUN NGT TO MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR
NORTHEAST PA ZONES AS WELL AS SULLIVAN, DELAWARE, AND OTSEGO
COUNTIES IN NY DUE TO DRY FINE FUELS, DROPPING RH VALUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BELOW 30 PERCENT, AND GUSTY NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35
MPH. THESE FACTORS WILL ALL COMBINE TO CREATE VERY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF ANY OUTDOOR FIRES. FOR THE
REMAINING ZONES ACROSS CENTRAL NY, FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL ALSO
BE MODERATE TO HIGH HOWEVER THESE AREAS FALL JUST SHORT OF RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS THIS PAST
WEEK EXCEEDING A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INCREASE ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-057-
     062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBGM 181531
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1131 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY. A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING
THE AREA RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HOURLY TEMPS ALREADY A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL IN
MANY SPOTS. WITH GREAT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON (UP THROUGH 800 MB),
I INCREASED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES. I ALSO RAISED
DEW POINTS THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE ARE RUNNING HIGH NOW. DEW
POINTS REALLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE AND THE
FINGER LAKES, WHERE THEY MAY FALL INTO THE 20S IN SPOTS. IN
ADDITION WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH LOOK GOOD, WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY ON THE HILLTOPS.

0615 AM UPDATE...BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS, FOG IS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
EXPECTED SO WE EXPANDED THE COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE ALL AREAS EAST EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NOT JUST THE RIVER VALLEYS. AN
SPS HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA MENTIONING VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER TO HALF MILE IN SPOTS. FOG WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE AND BE GONE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE, ALSO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING TEMPS, DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP CLOSE TO DEW
POINTS RESULTING IN RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING GUSTY WINDS AND FALLING DEW POINTS IN ITS
WAKE RESULTING IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER. AS A RESULT WE HAVE ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR SULLIVAN, DELAWARE, AND OTSEGO COUNTIES IN NY
AS WELL AS ALL OF OUR NE PA ZONES. THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH BY THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE CONTINUE TO NOT
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS THE BEST
ENERGY WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NE AND ALSO THE PROFILES WILL BE TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN FAIR
WEATHER CU TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DIMINISHING WINDS, DROPPING TEMPS, AND RISING RH VALUES WILL
RESULT IN A QUICKLY DIMINISHING FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET. AS THE
HIGH SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY, CONDITIONS WILL DAWN MAINLY SUNNY WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING RIGHT OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND A LARGE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

CLOUDS THICKEN UP SUNDAY EVENING WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE
AREA FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA AHEAD OF A BROAD,
DIGGING H500 MB TROUGH. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN OVERALL PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THE GFS IS JUST A BIT
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. STRONG SE LLJ WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF
THE ATLANTIC SUPPORTS DECENT SLUG OF QPF WITH UPWARDS OF A HALF
INCH OF RAIN OR SO LIKELY BY THE TIME THIS FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO FALL
OVER SE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE POCONOS
AND CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPING.

FOLLOWING THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK
DURING THE LATTER PART OF MONDAY THOUGH NOT OPTIMISTIC THERE WILL
BE MUCH SUN. THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SLUG OF
SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND A SFC COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL DAMP PERIOD.
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO SAY IF
IT WILL ACCUMULATE. MODELS STILL SIMILAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD
SHOWING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SFC OCCLUSION IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WED NIGHT/THURSDAY NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO AREA FOR MIDDAY TODAY. EARLY
THIS MORNING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. IFR VALLEY FOG
AT ITH RME ELM SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AND MIX OUT BY 13Z. HAVE A 1
HOUR TEMPO FOR 2SM BR AT RME AND ELM.

LATE MORNING INTO EVENING WINDS INCREASE TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KTS. WINDS SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTH. AROUND 00Z WINDS DROP TO
10 KTS THEN BECOME 5 TO 10 KTS BY 03Z. FURTHER VERRING TO NE OR
EAST LATE TONIGHT.

MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TODAY WITH HEATING. IF SKIES
BECOME BROKEN CEILINGS WILL BE VFR. TONIGHT SKIES CLEAR AGAIN. NO
FOG WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT-WED...RESTRICTIONS IN -RA...ESPECIALLY SUN NGT TO MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR
NORTHEAST PA ZONES AS WELL AS SULLIVAN, DELAWARE, AND OTSEGO
COUNTIES IN NY DUE TO DRY FINE FUELS, DROPPING RH VALUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BELOW 30 PERCENT, AND GUSTY NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35
MPH. THESE FACTORS WILL ALL COMBINE TO CREATE VERY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF ANY OUTDOOR FIRES. FOR THE
REMAINING ZONES ACROSS CENTRAL NY, FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL ALSO
BE MODERATE TO HIGH HOWEVER THESE AREAS FALL JUST SHORT OF RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS THIS PAST
WEEK EXCEEDING A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INCREASE ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-057-
     062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBGM 181531
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1131 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY. A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING
THE AREA RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HOURLY TEMPS ALREADY A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL IN
MANY SPOTS. WITH GREAT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON (UP THROUGH 800 MB),
I INCREASED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES. I ALSO RAISED
DEW POINTS THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE ARE RUNNING HIGH NOW. DEW
POINTS REALLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE AND THE
FINGER LAKES, WHERE THEY MAY FALL INTO THE 20S IN SPOTS. IN
ADDITION WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH LOOK GOOD, WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY ON THE HILLTOPS.

0615 AM UPDATE...BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS, FOG IS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
EXPECTED SO WE EXPANDED THE COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE ALL AREAS EAST EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NOT JUST THE RIVER VALLEYS. AN
SPS HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA MENTIONING VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER TO HALF MILE IN SPOTS. FOG WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE AND BE GONE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE, ALSO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING TEMPS, DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP CLOSE TO DEW
POINTS RESULTING IN RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING GUSTY WINDS AND FALLING DEW POINTS IN ITS
WAKE RESULTING IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER. AS A RESULT WE HAVE ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR SULLIVAN, DELAWARE, AND OTSEGO COUNTIES IN NY
AS WELL AS ALL OF OUR NE PA ZONES. THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH BY THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE CONTINUE TO NOT
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS THE BEST
ENERGY WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NE AND ALSO THE PROFILES WILL BE TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN FAIR
WEATHER CU TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DIMINISHING WINDS, DROPPING TEMPS, AND RISING RH VALUES WILL
RESULT IN A QUICKLY DIMINISHING FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET. AS THE
HIGH SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY, CONDITIONS WILL DAWN MAINLY SUNNY WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING RIGHT OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND A LARGE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

CLOUDS THICKEN UP SUNDAY EVENING WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE
AREA FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA AHEAD OF A BROAD,
DIGGING H500 MB TROUGH. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN OVERALL PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THE GFS IS JUST A BIT
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. STRONG SE LLJ WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF
THE ATLANTIC SUPPORTS DECENT SLUG OF QPF WITH UPWARDS OF A HALF
INCH OF RAIN OR SO LIKELY BY THE TIME THIS FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO FALL
OVER SE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE POCONOS
AND CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPING.

FOLLOWING THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK
DURING THE LATTER PART OF MONDAY THOUGH NOT OPTIMISTIC THERE WILL
BE MUCH SUN. THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SLUG OF
SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND A SFC COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL DAMP PERIOD.
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO SAY IF
IT WILL ACCUMULATE. MODELS STILL SIMILAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD
SHOWING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SFC OCCLUSION IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WED NIGHT/THURSDAY NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO AREA FOR MIDDAY TODAY. EARLY
THIS MORNING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. IFR VALLEY FOG
AT ITH RME ELM SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AND MIX OUT BY 13Z. HAVE A 1
HOUR TEMPO FOR 2SM BR AT RME AND ELM.

LATE MORNING INTO EVENING WINDS INCREASE TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KTS. WINDS SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTH. AROUND 00Z WINDS DROP TO
10 KTS THEN BECOME 5 TO 10 KTS BY 03Z. FURTHER VERRING TO NE OR
EAST LATE TONIGHT.

MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TODAY WITH HEATING. IF SKIES
BECOME BROKEN CEILINGS WILL BE VFR. TONIGHT SKIES CLEAR AGAIN. NO
FOG WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT-WED...RESTRICTIONS IN -RA...ESPECIALLY SUN NGT TO MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR
NORTHEAST PA ZONES AS WELL AS SULLIVAN, DELAWARE, AND OTSEGO
COUNTIES IN NY DUE TO DRY FINE FUELS, DROPPING RH VALUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BELOW 30 PERCENT, AND GUSTY NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35
MPH. THESE FACTORS WILL ALL COMBINE TO CREATE VERY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF ANY OUTDOOR FIRES. FOR THE
REMAINING ZONES ACROSS CENTRAL NY, FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL ALSO
BE MODERATE TO HIGH HOWEVER THESE AREAS FALL JUST SHORT OF RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS THIS PAST
WEEK EXCEEDING A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INCREASE ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-057-
     062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBGM 181531
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1131 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY. A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING
THE AREA RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HOURLY TEMPS ALREADY A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL IN
MANY SPOTS. WITH GREAT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON (UP THROUGH 800 MB),
I INCREASED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES. I ALSO RAISED
DEW POINTS THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE ARE RUNNING HIGH NOW. DEW
POINTS REALLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE AND THE
FINGER LAKES, WHERE THEY MAY FALL INTO THE 20S IN SPOTS. IN
ADDITION WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH LOOK GOOD, WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY ON THE HILLTOPS.

0615 AM UPDATE...BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS, FOG IS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
EXPECTED SO WE EXPANDED THE COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE ALL AREAS EAST EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NOT JUST THE RIVER VALLEYS. AN
SPS HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA MENTIONING VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER TO HALF MILE IN SPOTS. FOG WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE AND BE GONE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE, ALSO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING TEMPS, DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP CLOSE TO DEW
POINTS RESULTING IN RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING GUSTY WINDS AND FALLING DEW POINTS IN ITS
WAKE RESULTING IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER. AS A RESULT WE HAVE ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR SULLIVAN, DELAWARE, AND OTSEGO COUNTIES IN NY
AS WELL AS ALL OF OUR NE PA ZONES. THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH BY THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE CONTINUE TO NOT
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS THE BEST
ENERGY WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NE AND ALSO THE PROFILES WILL BE TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN FAIR
WEATHER CU TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DIMINISHING WINDS, DROPPING TEMPS, AND RISING RH VALUES WILL
RESULT IN A QUICKLY DIMINISHING FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET. AS THE
HIGH SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY, CONDITIONS WILL DAWN MAINLY SUNNY WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING RIGHT OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND A LARGE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

CLOUDS THICKEN UP SUNDAY EVENING WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE
AREA FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA AHEAD OF A BROAD,
DIGGING H500 MB TROUGH. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN OVERALL PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THE GFS IS JUST A BIT
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. STRONG SE LLJ WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF
THE ATLANTIC SUPPORTS DECENT SLUG OF QPF WITH UPWARDS OF A HALF
INCH OF RAIN OR SO LIKELY BY THE TIME THIS FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO FALL
OVER SE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE POCONOS
AND CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPING.

FOLLOWING THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK
DURING THE LATTER PART OF MONDAY THOUGH NOT OPTIMISTIC THERE WILL
BE MUCH SUN. THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SLUG OF
SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND A SFC COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL DAMP PERIOD.
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO SAY IF
IT WILL ACCUMULATE. MODELS STILL SIMILAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD
SHOWING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SFC OCCLUSION IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WED NIGHT/THURSDAY NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO AREA FOR MIDDAY TODAY. EARLY
THIS MORNING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. IFR VALLEY FOG
AT ITH RME ELM SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AND MIX OUT BY 13Z. HAVE A 1
HOUR TEMPO FOR 2SM BR AT RME AND ELM.

LATE MORNING INTO EVENING WINDS INCREASE TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KTS. WINDS SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTH. AROUND 00Z WINDS DROP TO
10 KTS THEN BECOME 5 TO 10 KTS BY 03Z. FURTHER VERRING TO NE OR
EAST LATE TONIGHT.

MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TODAY WITH HEATING. IF SKIES
BECOME BROKEN CEILINGS WILL BE VFR. TONIGHT SKIES CLEAR AGAIN. NO
FOG WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT-WED...RESTRICTIONS IN -RA...ESPECIALLY SUN NGT TO MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR
NORTHEAST PA ZONES AS WELL AS SULLIVAN, DELAWARE, AND OTSEGO
COUNTIES IN NY DUE TO DRY FINE FUELS, DROPPING RH VALUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BELOW 30 PERCENT, AND GUSTY NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35
MPH. THESE FACTORS WILL ALL COMBINE TO CREATE VERY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF ANY OUTDOOR FIRES. FOR THE
REMAINING ZONES ACROSS CENTRAL NY, FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL ALSO
BE MODERATE TO HIGH HOWEVER THESE AREAS FALL JUST SHORT OF RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS THIS PAST
WEEK EXCEEDING A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INCREASE ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-057-
     062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...





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