Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KBGM 050020
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
719 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. BEHIND THIS FRONT COLDER
BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
7PM EST UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
CURRENT TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED. BELIEVE THE
COLDER AIR MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO PUSH INTO THE REGION THUS...
HAVE RAISED THE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOW. SLOWLY
BUT SURELY PRECIP IS PUSHING INTO THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
OVER NORTHEAST PA. ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN RAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS
ARE STILL IN THE UPPR 30S. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO CENTRAL NY. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 03Z. TEMPS BY DAYBREAK WILL GENERALLY BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES.

OVER NE PA A WAVE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH
BY DAYBREAK. PRECIP GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ALONG THE NRN PTN OF
THIS BOUNDARY AS DRY AIR WILL BE ADVECTING SOUTH. IN GENERAL 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL OVER NE PA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN LUZERNE, LACKAWANNA, WAYNE AND
PIKE COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT PRIMARILY DRY.
SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG A 300 VECTOR BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO FAIRLY
LOW INVERSION HEIGHT. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE A FEW DEGREES
UNDER CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CAA. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LOW TEMPS WILL WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW. ANY LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND
BECOMES VERY LIGHT. ON FRIDAY SFC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH SOME MODIFICATION EXPECTED UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAXES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS
THE NEXT SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER THE NRN CWA
BY DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...WEAK WAA FORCING AHEAD OF NEXT SFC TROF WILL BRING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVER NRN ONEIDA COUNTY LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES FAVORABLE
OF LES BY LATE DAY SO INCLUDED LIKELY POPS HERE WITH MINOR ACCUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS IN A STATE OF FLUX AWAY FROM THE
VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN AND, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
IN THESE SITUATIONS, THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE THAN AVERAGE IN
THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. THAT SAID, THE
OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS WITH WEAK, FAST
MOVING SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AN INITIAL
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
OR LESS AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 ALONG WITH SOME DEVELOPING SUNSHINE. BEYOND THIS TIME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT ARE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. THE MELTING OF SNOW
ICE SHOULD BE TEMPERED, HOWEVER, BY OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT LOOK TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD FOR KSYR/KRME/KITH/KBGM/KELM
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VIS FOR THESE
SITES. FOR KAVP MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
SNOW MOVING IN AND EFFECTING THE AREA CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT MVFR VIS WITH THIS SNOW DROPPING AT TIMES TO
IFR...ESPECIALLY AROUND AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE SNOW
MOVES OUT AROUND DAYBRERAK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
OR POSSIBLY VFR.

GENERALLY EXPECT WNW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT BECOMING
MORE NW OR NEARLY NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY FOR KSYR/KRME

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...KAH/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...ABS








000
FXUS61 KBGM 050020
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
719 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. BEHIND THIS FRONT COLDER
BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
7PM EST UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
CURRENT TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED. BELIEVE THE
COLDER AIR MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO PUSH INTO THE REGION THUS...
HAVE RAISED THE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOW. SLOWLY
BUT SURELY PRECIP IS PUSHING INTO THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
OVER NORTHEAST PA. ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN RAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS
ARE STILL IN THE UPPR 30S. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO CENTRAL NY. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 03Z. TEMPS BY DAYBREAK WILL GENERALLY BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES.

OVER NE PA A WAVE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH
BY DAYBREAK. PRECIP GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ALONG THE NRN PTN OF
THIS BOUNDARY AS DRY AIR WILL BE ADVECTING SOUTH. IN GENERAL 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL OVER NE PA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN LUZERNE, LACKAWANNA, WAYNE AND
PIKE COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT PRIMARILY DRY.
SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG A 300 VECTOR BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO FAIRLY
LOW INVERSION HEIGHT. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE A FEW DEGREES
UNDER CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CAA. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LOW TEMPS WILL WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW. ANY LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND
BECOMES VERY LIGHT. ON FRIDAY SFC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH SOME MODIFICATION EXPECTED UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAXES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS
THE NEXT SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER THE NRN CWA
BY DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...WEAK WAA FORCING AHEAD OF NEXT SFC TROF WILL BRING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVER NRN ONEIDA COUNTY LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES FAVORABLE
OF LES BY LATE DAY SO INCLUDED LIKELY POPS HERE WITH MINOR ACCUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS IN A STATE OF FLUX AWAY FROM THE
VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN AND, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
IN THESE SITUATIONS, THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE THAN AVERAGE IN
THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. THAT SAID, THE
OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS WITH WEAK, FAST
MOVING SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AN INITIAL
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
OR LESS AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 ALONG WITH SOME DEVELOPING SUNSHINE. BEYOND THIS TIME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT ARE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. THE MELTING OF SNOW
ICE SHOULD BE TEMPERED, HOWEVER, BY OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT LOOK TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD FOR KSYR/KRME/KITH/KBGM/KELM
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VIS FOR THESE
SITES. FOR KAVP MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
SNOW MOVING IN AND EFFECTING THE AREA CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT MVFR VIS WITH THIS SNOW DROPPING AT TIMES TO
IFR...ESPECIALLY AROUND AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE SNOW
MOVES OUT AROUND DAYBRERAK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
OR POSSIBLY VFR.

GENERALLY EXPECT WNW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT BECOMING
MORE NW OR NEARLY NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY FOR KSYR/KRME

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...KAH/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...ABS









000
FXUS61 KBGM 050020
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
719 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. BEHIND THIS FRONT COLDER
BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
7PM EST UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
CURRENT TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED. BELIEVE THE
COLDER AIR MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO PUSH INTO THE REGION THUS...
HAVE RAISED THE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOW. SLOWLY
BUT SURELY PRECIP IS PUSHING INTO THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
OVER NORTHEAST PA. ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN RAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS
ARE STILL IN THE UPPR 30S. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO CENTRAL NY. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 03Z. TEMPS BY DAYBREAK WILL GENERALLY BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES.

OVER NE PA A WAVE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH
BY DAYBREAK. PRECIP GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ALONG THE NRN PTN OF
THIS BOUNDARY AS DRY AIR WILL BE ADVECTING SOUTH. IN GENERAL 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL OVER NE PA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN LUZERNE, LACKAWANNA, WAYNE AND
PIKE COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT PRIMARILY DRY.
SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG A 300 VECTOR BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO FAIRLY
LOW INVERSION HEIGHT. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE A FEW DEGREES
UNDER CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CAA. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LOW TEMPS WILL WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW. ANY LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND
BECOMES VERY LIGHT. ON FRIDAY SFC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH SOME MODIFICATION EXPECTED UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAXES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS
THE NEXT SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER THE NRN CWA
BY DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...WEAK WAA FORCING AHEAD OF NEXT SFC TROF WILL BRING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVER NRN ONEIDA COUNTY LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES FAVORABLE
OF LES BY LATE DAY SO INCLUDED LIKELY POPS HERE WITH MINOR ACCUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS IN A STATE OF FLUX AWAY FROM THE
VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN AND, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
IN THESE SITUATIONS, THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE THAN AVERAGE IN
THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. THAT SAID, THE
OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS WITH WEAK, FAST
MOVING SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AN INITIAL
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
OR LESS AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 ALONG WITH SOME DEVELOPING SUNSHINE. BEYOND THIS TIME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT ARE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. THE MELTING OF SNOW
ICE SHOULD BE TEMPERED, HOWEVER, BY OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT LOOK TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD FOR KSYR/KRME/KITH/KBGM/KELM
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VIS FOR THESE
SITES. FOR KAVP MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
SNOW MOVING IN AND EFFECTING THE AREA CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT MVFR VIS WITH THIS SNOW DROPPING AT TIMES TO
IFR...ESPECIALLY AROUND AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE SNOW
MOVES OUT AROUND DAYBRERAK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
OR POSSIBLY VFR.

GENERALLY EXPECT WNW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT BECOMING
MORE NW OR NEARLY NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY FOR KSYR/KRME

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...KAH/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...ABS









000
FXUS61 KBGM 050020
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
719 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. BEHIND THIS FRONT COLDER
BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
7PM EST UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
CURRENT TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED. BELIEVE THE
COLDER AIR MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO PUSH INTO THE REGION THUS...
HAVE RAISED THE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOW. SLOWLY
BUT SURELY PRECIP IS PUSHING INTO THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
OVER NORTHEAST PA. ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN RAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS
ARE STILL IN THE UPPR 30S. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO CENTRAL NY. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 03Z. TEMPS BY DAYBREAK WILL GENERALLY BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES.

OVER NE PA A WAVE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH
BY DAYBREAK. PRECIP GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ALONG THE NRN PTN OF
THIS BOUNDARY AS DRY AIR WILL BE ADVECTING SOUTH. IN GENERAL 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL OVER NE PA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN LUZERNE, LACKAWANNA, WAYNE AND
PIKE COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT PRIMARILY DRY.
SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG A 300 VECTOR BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO FAIRLY
LOW INVERSION HEIGHT. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE A FEW DEGREES
UNDER CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CAA. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LOW TEMPS WILL WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW. ANY LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND
BECOMES VERY LIGHT. ON FRIDAY SFC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH SOME MODIFICATION EXPECTED UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAXES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS
THE NEXT SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER THE NRN CWA
BY DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...WEAK WAA FORCING AHEAD OF NEXT SFC TROF WILL BRING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVER NRN ONEIDA COUNTY LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES FAVORABLE
OF LES BY LATE DAY SO INCLUDED LIKELY POPS HERE WITH MINOR ACCUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS IN A STATE OF FLUX AWAY FROM THE
VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN AND, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
IN THESE SITUATIONS, THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE THAN AVERAGE IN
THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. THAT SAID, THE
OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS WITH WEAK, FAST
MOVING SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AN INITIAL
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
OR LESS AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 ALONG WITH SOME DEVELOPING SUNSHINE. BEYOND THIS TIME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT ARE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. THE MELTING OF SNOW
ICE SHOULD BE TEMPERED, HOWEVER, BY OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT LOOK TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD FOR KSYR/KRME/KITH/KBGM/KELM
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VIS FOR THESE
SITES. FOR KAVP MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
SNOW MOVING IN AND EFFECTING THE AREA CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT MVFR VIS WITH THIS SNOW DROPPING AT TIMES TO
IFR...ESPECIALLY AROUND AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE SNOW
MOVES OUT AROUND DAYBRERAK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
OR POSSIBLY VFR.

GENERALLY EXPECT WNW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT BECOMING
MORE NW OR NEARLY NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY FOR KSYR/KRME

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...KAH/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...ABS








000
FXUS61 KBGM 042333
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
633 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. BEHIND THIS FRONT COLDER
BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO CENTRAL NY. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 03Z. TEMPS BY DAYBREAK WILL GENERALLY BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES.

OVER NE PA A WAVE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH
BY DAYBREAK. PRECIP GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ALONG THE NRN PTN OF
THIS BOUNDARY AS DRY AIR WILL BE ADVECTING SOUTH. IN GENERAL 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL OVER NE PA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN LUZERNE, LACKAWANNA, WAYNE AND
PIKE COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT PRIMARILY DRY.
SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG A 300 VECTOR BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO FAIRLY
LOW INVERSION HEIGHT. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE A FEW DEGREES
UNDER CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CAA. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LOW TEMPS WILL WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW. ANY LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND
BECOMES VERY LIGHT. ON FRIDAY SFC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH SOME MODIFICATION EXPECTED UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAXES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS
THE NEXT SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER THE NRN CWA
BY DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...WEAK WAA FORCING AHEAD OF NEXT SFC TROF WILL BRING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVER NRN ONEIDA COUNTY LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES FAVORABLE
OF LES BY LATE DAY SO INCLUDED LIKELY POPS HERE WITH MINOR ACCUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS IN A STATE OF FLUX AWAY FROM THE
VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN AND, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
IN THESE SITUATIONS, THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE THAN AVERAGE IN
THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. THAT SAID, THE
OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS WITH WEAK, FAST
MOVING SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AN INITIAL
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
OR LESS AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 ALONG WITH SOME DEVELOPING SUNSHINE. BEYOND THIS TIME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT ARE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. THE MELTING OF SNOW
ICE SHOULD BE TEMPERED, HOWEVER, BY OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT LOOK TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD FOR KSYR/KRME/KITH/KBGM/KELM
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VIS FOR THESE
SITES. FOR KAVP MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
SNOW MOVING IN AND EFFECTING THE AREA CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT MVFR VIS WITH THIS SNOW DROPPING AT TIMES TO
IFR...ESPECIALLY AROUND AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE SNOW
MOVES OUT AROUND DAYBRERAK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
OR POSSIBLY VFR.

GENERALLY EXPECT WNW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT BECOMING
MORE NW OR NEARLY NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY FOR KSYR/KRME

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...ABS








000
FXUS61 KBGM 042333
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
633 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. BEHIND THIS FRONT COLDER
BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO CENTRAL NY. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 03Z. TEMPS BY DAYBREAK WILL GENERALLY BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES.

OVER NE PA A WAVE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH
BY DAYBREAK. PRECIP GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ALONG THE NRN PTN OF
THIS BOUNDARY AS DRY AIR WILL BE ADVECTING SOUTH. IN GENERAL 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL OVER NE PA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN LUZERNE, LACKAWANNA, WAYNE AND
PIKE COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT PRIMARILY DRY.
SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG A 300 VECTOR BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO FAIRLY
LOW INVERSION HEIGHT. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE A FEW DEGREES
UNDER CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CAA. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LOW TEMPS WILL WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW. ANY LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND
BECOMES VERY LIGHT. ON FRIDAY SFC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH SOME MODIFICATION EXPECTED UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAXES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS
THE NEXT SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER THE NRN CWA
BY DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...WEAK WAA FORCING AHEAD OF NEXT SFC TROF WILL BRING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVER NRN ONEIDA COUNTY LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES FAVORABLE
OF LES BY LATE DAY SO INCLUDED LIKELY POPS HERE WITH MINOR ACCUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS IN A STATE OF FLUX AWAY FROM THE
VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN AND, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
IN THESE SITUATIONS, THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE THAN AVERAGE IN
THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. THAT SAID, THE
OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS WITH WEAK, FAST
MOVING SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AN INITIAL
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
OR LESS AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 ALONG WITH SOME DEVELOPING SUNSHINE. BEYOND THIS TIME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT ARE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. THE MELTING OF SNOW
ICE SHOULD BE TEMPERED, HOWEVER, BY OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT LOOK TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD FOR KSYR/KRME/KITH/KBGM/KELM
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VIS FOR THESE
SITES. FOR KAVP MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
SNOW MOVING IN AND EFFECTING THE AREA CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT MVFR VIS WITH THIS SNOW DROPPING AT TIMES TO
IFR...ESPECIALLY AROUND AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE SNOW
MOVES OUT AROUND DAYBRERAK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
OR POSSIBLY VFR.

GENERALLY EXPECT WNW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT BECOMING
MORE NW OR NEARLY NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY FOR KSYR/KRME

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...ABS







000
FXUS61 KBGM 042333
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
633 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. BEHIND THIS FRONT COLDER
BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO CENTRAL NY. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 03Z. TEMPS BY DAYBREAK WILL GENERALLY BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES.

OVER NE PA A WAVE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH
BY DAYBREAK. PRECIP GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ALONG THE NRN PTN OF
THIS BOUNDARY AS DRY AIR WILL BE ADVECTING SOUTH. IN GENERAL 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL OVER NE PA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN LUZERNE, LACKAWANNA, WAYNE AND
PIKE COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT PRIMARILY DRY.
SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG A 300 VECTOR BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO FAIRLY
LOW INVERSION HEIGHT. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE A FEW DEGREES
UNDER CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CAA. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LOW TEMPS WILL WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW. ANY LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND
BECOMES VERY LIGHT. ON FRIDAY SFC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH SOME MODIFICATION EXPECTED UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAXES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS
THE NEXT SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER THE NRN CWA
BY DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...WEAK WAA FORCING AHEAD OF NEXT SFC TROF WILL BRING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVER NRN ONEIDA COUNTY LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES FAVORABLE
OF LES BY LATE DAY SO INCLUDED LIKELY POPS HERE WITH MINOR ACCUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS IN A STATE OF FLUX AWAY FROM THE
VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN AND, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
IN THESE SITUATIONS, THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE THAN AVERAGE IN
THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. THAT SAID, THE
OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS WITH WEAK, FAST
MOVING SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AN INITIAL
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
OR LESS AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 ALONG WITH SOME DEVELOPING SUNSHINE. BEYOND THIS TIME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT ARE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. THE MELTING OF SNOW
ICE SHOULD BE TEMPERED, HOWEVER, BY OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT LOOK TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD FOR KSYR/KRME/KITH/KBGM/KELM
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VIS FOR THESE
SITES. FOR KAVP MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
SNOW MOVING IN AND EFFECTING THE AREA CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT MVFR VIS WITH THIS SNOW DROPPING AT TIMES TO
IFR...ESPECIALLY AROUND AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE SNOW
MOVES OUT AROUND DAYBRERAK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
OR POSSIBLY VFR.

GENERALLY EXPECT WNW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT BECOMING
MORE NW OR NEARLY NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY FOR KSYR/KRME

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...ABS








000
FXUS61 KBGM 042058
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
358 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. BEHIND THIS FRONT COLDER
BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO CENTRAL NY. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 03Z. TEMPS BY DAYBREAK WILL GENERALLY BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES.

OVER NE PA A WAVE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH
BY DAYBREAK. PRECIP GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ALONG THE NRN PTN OF
THIS BOUNDARY AS DRY AIR WILL BE ADVECTING SOUTH. IN GENERAL 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL OVER NE PA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN LUZERNE, LACKAWANNA, WAYNE AND
PIKE COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT PRIMARILY DRY.
SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG A 300 VECTOR BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO FAIRLY
LOW INVERSION HEIGHT. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE A FEW DEGREES
UNDER CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CAA. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LOW TEMPS WILL WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW. ANY LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND
BECOMES VERY LIGHT. ON FRIDAY SFC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH SOME MODIFICATION EXPECTED UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAXES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS
THE NEXT SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER THE NRN CWA
BY DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...WEAK WAA FORCING AHEAD OF NEXT SFC TROF WILL BRING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVER NRN ONEIDA COUNTY LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES FAVORABLE
OF LES BY LATE DAY SO INCLUDED LIKELY POPS HERE WITH MINOR ACCUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS IN A STATE OF FLUX AWAY FROM THE
VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN AND, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
IN THESE SITUATIONS, THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE THAN AVERAGE IN
THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. THAT SAID, THE
OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS WITH WEAK, FAST
MOVING SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AN INITIAL
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
OR LESS AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 ALONG WITH SOME DEVELOPING SUNSHINE. BEYOND THIS TIME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT ARE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. THE MELTING OF SNOW
ICE SHOULD BE TEMPERED, HOWEVER, BY OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT LOOK TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE...

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD FOR KITH/KBGM/KELM
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VIS FOR THESE SITES.
FOR KAVP, MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF SNOW
MOVING IN AND EFFECTING THE AREA FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR VIS WITH THIS SNOW DROPPING AT TIMES TO
IFR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS EVENING. ONCE THE
SNOW MOVES OUT BY THURSDAY MORNING, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR. FOR KSYR/KRME EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE LIFTING TO LOW END VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SPARK SOME FLURRIES FOR KSYR.

GENERALLY EXPECT WEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
MORE NW THIS EVENING AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY FOR KSYR/KRME

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...PCF








000
FXUS61 KBGM 042058
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
358 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. BEHIND THIS FRONT COLDER
BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO CENTRAL NY. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 03Z. TEMPS BY DAYBREAK WILL GENERALLY BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES.

OVER NE PA A WAVE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH
BY DAYBREAK. PRECIP GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ALONG THE NRN PTN OF
THIS BOUNDARY AS DRY AIR WILL BE ADVECTING SOUTH. IN GENERAL 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL OVER NE PA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN LUZERNE, LACKAWANNA, WAYNE AND
PIKE COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT PRIMARILY DRY.
SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG A 300 VECTOR BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO FAIRLY
LOW INVERSION HEIGHT. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE A FEW DEGREES
UNDER CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CAA. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LOW TEMPS WILL WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW. ANY LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND
BECOMES VERY LIGHT. ON FRIDAY SFC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH SOME MODIFICATION EXPECTED UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAXES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS
THE NEXT SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER THE NRN CWA
BY DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...WEAK WAA FORCING AHEAD OF NEXT SFC TROF WILL BRING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVER NRN ONEIDA COUNTY LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES FAVORABLE
OF LES BY LATE DAY SO INCLUDED LIKELY POPS HERE WITH MINOR ACCUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS IN A STATE OF FLUX AWAY FROM THE
VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN AND, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
IN THESE SITUATIONS, THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE THAN AVERAGE IN
THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. THAT SAID, THE
OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS WITH WEAK, FAST
MOVING SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AN INITIAL
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
OR LESS AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 ALONG WITH SOME DEVELOPING SUNSHINE. BEYOND THIS TIME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT ARE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. THE MELTING OF SNOW
ICE SHOULD BE TEMPERED, HOWEVER, BY OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT LOOK TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE...

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD FOR KITH/KBGM/KELM
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VIS FOR THESE SITES.
FOR KAVP, MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF SNOW
MOVING IN AND EFFECTING THE AREA FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR VIS WITH THIS SNOW DROPPING AT TIMES TO
IFR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS EVENING. ONCE THE
SNOW MOVES OUT BY THURSDAY MORNING, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR. FOR KSYR/KRME EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE LIFTING TO LOW END VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SPARK SOME FLURRIES FOR KSYR.

GENERALLY EXPECT WEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
MORE NW THIS EVENING AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY FOR KSYR/KRME

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 042058
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
358 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. BEHIND THIS FRONT COLDER
BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TO CENTRAL NY. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 03Z. TEMPS BY DAYBREAK WILL GENERALLY BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES.

OVER NE PA A WAVE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH
BY DAYBREAK. PRECIP GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ALONG THE NRN PTN OF
THIS BOUNDARY AS DRY AIR WILL BE ADVECTING SOUTH. IN GENERAL 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL OVER NE PA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN LUZERNE, LACKAWANNA, WAYNE AND
PIKE COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT PRIMARILY DRY.
SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG A 300 VECTOR BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO FAIRLY
LOW INVERSION HEIGHT. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE A FEW DEGREES
UNDER CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CAA. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LOW TEMPS WILL WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW. ANY LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND
BECOMES VERY LIGHT. ON FRIDAY SFC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH SOME MODIFICATION EXPECTED UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAXES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS
THE NEXT SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER THE NRN CWA
BY DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...WEAK WAA FORCING AHEAD OF NEXT SFC TROF WILL BRING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVER NRN ONEIDA COUNTY LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES FAVORABLE
OF LES BY LATE DAY SO INCLUDED LIKELY POPS HERE WITH MINOR ACCUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS IN A STATE OF FLUX AWAY FROM THE
VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN AND, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
IN THESE SITUATIONS, THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE THAN AVERAGE IN
THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. THAT SAID, THE
OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS WITH WEAK, FAST
MOVING SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AN INITIAL
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
OR LESS AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 ALONG WITH SOME DEVELOPING SUNSHINE. BEYOND THIS TIME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT ARE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. THE MELTING OF SNOW
ICE SHOULD BE TEMPERED, HOWEVER, BY OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT LOOK TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE...

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD FOR KITH/KBGM/KELM
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VIS FOR THESE SITES.
FOR KAVP, MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF SNOW
MOVING IN AND EFFECTING THE AREA FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR VIS WITH THIS SNOW DROPPING AT TIMES TO
IFR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS EVENING. ONCE THE
SNOW MOVES OUT BY THURSDAY MORNING, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR. FOR KSYR/KRME EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE LIFTING TO LOW END VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SPARK SOME FLURRIES FOR KSYR.

GENERALLY EXPECT WEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
MORE NW THIS EVENING AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY FOR KSYR/KRME

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 041948
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
248 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE FAR SE CWA.
SINCE TEMPS IN THIS REGION ARE IN THE MID 30S ANY LINGERING PRECIP
HERE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST
NAM INDICATES LOW LEVEL CAA WILL WAIT UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING
WHEN THE COLD FRONT STARTS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH REGION. TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CURRENTS
UNDER WEAK CAA AND CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES. IN THE NRN CWA
SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

7 AM EST UPDATE... ALLOWED REMAINDER OF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THAT
BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES IN MOST PLACES REMAIN AROUND
FREEZING...AND THE EARLIER SNOW-SLEET-ICE WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE
ON UNTREATED ROADS IN ADDITION TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE-FREEZING
RAIN /MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE CONCERNS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...
NO REST OF THE WEARY...MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT DRAGS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY...WILL STALL
OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...AT THE SAME TIME A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED FAIRLY WELL
ON A CHUNK OF NORTHEAST PA TO WESTERN CATSKILLS NY RECEIVING
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW...YET THE HEAVIEST OF IT WILL FALL IN
SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PA...INTO NEW JERSEY AND DOWNSTATE NY.
ANY SLIGHT JOG NORTHWARD TO THIS TRACK COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW
INTO A PORTION OF OUR AREA...SO AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. AND EVEN IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS NO
SLOUCH AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS WAVE WILL FEATURE NICE JET SUPPORT AND A THICK LAYER OF
FORCED ASCENT WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
COMPARED TO THE EVENT THAT JUST WRAPPED UP...BEING THE COLD SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SNOW WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND FLUFFIER
WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO ACCUMULATE QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE A CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE TWIN TIERS...HOWEVER IN THIS AREA AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH RESULTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SO WHILE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN TWIN TIERS TO CENTRAL NY
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE MAY BE QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY...PROBABLY
ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS VIA 290-300 FLOW IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK...LINGERING AS FLURRIES EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY LOW TO MID TEENS TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW...THOUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY GET CLOSER TO 10
BELOW. WE ARE FIGURING ON WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO INDEED...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE. HOWEVER...THIS ONE
WILL NOT BE AS LONG LIVED AS RECENT EPISODES. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE...HIGHS UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT MILDER TIMES
ARE EN ROUTE FOR THE WEEKEND. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE DRY ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
APPROACHES...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE /PROBABLY EVEN
RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS IN A STATE OF FLUX AWAY FROM THE
VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN AND, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
IN THESE SITUATIONS, THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE THAN AVERAGE IN
THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. THAT SAID, THE
OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS WITH WEAK, FAST
MOVING SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AN INITIAL
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
OR LESS AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 ALONG WITH SOME DEVELOPING SUNSHINE. BEYOND THIS TIME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT ARE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. THE MELTING OF SNOW
ICE SHOULD BE TEMPERED, HOWEVER, BY OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT LOOK TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE...

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD FOR KITH/KBGM/KELM
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VIS FOR THESE SITES.
FOR KAVP, MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF SNOW
MOVING IN AND EFFECTING THE AREA FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR VIS WITH THIS SNOW DROPPING AT TIMES TO
IFR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS EVENING. ONCE THE
SNOW MOVES OUT BY THURSDAY MORNING, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR. FOR KSYR/KRME EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE LIFTING TO LOW END VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SPARK SOME FLURRIES FOR KSYR.

GENERALLY EXPECT WEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
MORE NW THIS EVENING AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY FOR KSYR/KRME

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...PCF








000
FXUS61 KBGM 041948
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
248 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE FAR SE CWA.
SINCE TEMPS IN THIS REGION ARE IN THE MID 30S ANY LINGERING PRECIP
HERE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST
NAM INDICATES LOW LEVEL CAA WILL WAIT UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING
WHEN THE COLD FRONT STARTS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH REGION. TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CURRENTS
UNDER WEAK CAA AND CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES. IN THE NRN CWA
SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

7 AM EST UPDATE... ALLOWED REMAINDER OF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THAT
BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES IN MOST PLACES REMAIN AROUND
FREEZING...AND THE EARLIER SNOW-SLEET-ICE WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE
ON UNTREATED ROADS IN ADDITION TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE-FREEZING
RAIN /MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE CONCERNS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...
NO REST OF THE WEARY...MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT DRAGS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY...WILL STALL
OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...AT THE SAME TIME A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED FAIRLY WELL
ON A CHUNK OF NORTHEAST PA TO WESTERN CATSKILLS NY RECEIVING
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW...YET THE HEAVIEST OF IT WILL FALL IN
SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PA...INTO NEW JERSEY AND DOWNSTATE NY.
ANY SLIGHT JOG NORTHWARD TO THIS TRACK COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW
INTO A PORTION OF OUR AREA...SO AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. AND EVEN IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS NO
SLOUCH AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS WAVE WILL FEATURE NICE JET SUPPORT AND A THICK LAYER OF
FORCED ASCENT WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
COMPARED TO THE EVENT THAT JUST WRAPPED UP...BEING THE COLD SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SNOW WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND FLUFFIER
WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO ACCUMULATE QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE A CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE TWIN TIERS...HOWEVER IN THIS AREA AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH RESULTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SO WHILE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN TWIN TIERS TO CENTRAL NY
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE MAY BE QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY...PROBABLY
ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS VIA 290-300 FLOW IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK...LINGERING AS FLURRIES EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY LOW TO MID TEENS TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW...THOUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY GET CLOSER TO 10
BELOW. WE ARE FIGURING ON WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO INDEED...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE. HOWEVER...THIS ONE
WILL NOT BE AS LONG LIVED AS RECENT EPISODES. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE...HIGHS UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT MILDER TIMES
ARE EN ROUTE FOR THE WEEKEND. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE DRY ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
APPROACHES...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE /PROBABLY EVEN
RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS IN A STATE OF FLUX AWAY FROM THE
VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN AND, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
IN THESE SITUATIONS, THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE THAN AVERAGE IN
THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. THAT SAID, THE
OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS WITH WEAK, FAST
MOVING SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AN INITIAL
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
OR LESS AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 ALONG WITH SOME DEVELOPING SUNSHINE. BEYOND THIS TIME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT ARE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. THE MELTING OF SNOW
ICE SHOULD BE TEMPERED, HOWEVER, BY OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT LOOK TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE...

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD FOR KITH/KBGM/KELM
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VIS FOR THESE SITES.
FOR KAVP, MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF SNOW
MOVING IN AND EFFECTING THE AREA FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR VIS WITH THIS SNOW DROPPING AT TIMES TO
IFR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS EVENING. ONCE THE
SNOW MOVES OUT BY THURSDAY MORNING, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR. FOR KSYR/KRME EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE LIFTING TO LOW END VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SPARK SOME FLURRIES FOR KSYR.

GENERALLY EXPECT WEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
MORE NW THIS EVENING AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY FOR KSYR/KRME

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 041948
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
248 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE FAR SE CWA.
SINCE TEMPS IN THIS REGION ARE IN THE MID 30S ANY LINGERING PRECIP
HERE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST
NAM INDICATES LOW LEVEL CAA WILL WAIT UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING
WHEN THE COLD FRONT STARTS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH REGION. TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CURRENTS
UNDER WEAK CAA AND CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES. IN THE NRN CWA
SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

7 AM EST UPDATE... ALLOWED REMAINDER OF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THAT
BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES IN MOST PLACES REMAIN AROUND
FREEZING...AND THE EARLIER SNOW-SLEET-ICE WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE
ON UNTREATED ROADS IN ADDITION TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE-FREEZING
RAIN /MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE CONCERNS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...
NO REST OF THE WEARY...MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT DRAGS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY...WILL STALL
OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...AT THE SAME TIME A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED FAIRLY WELL
ON A CHUNK OF NORTHEAST PA TO WESTERN CATSKILLS NY RECEIVING
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW...YET THE HEAVIEST OF IT WILL FALL IN
SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PA...INTO NEW JERSEY AND DOWNSTATE NY.
ANY SLIGHT JOG NORTHWARD TO THIS TRACK COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW
INTO A PORTION OF OUR AREA...SO AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. AND EVEN IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS NO
SLOUCH AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS WAVE WILL FEATURE NICE JET SUPPORT AND A THICK LAYER OF
FORCED ASCENT WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
COMPARED TO THE EVENT THAT JUST WRAPPED UP...BEING THE COLD SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SNOW WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND FLUFFIER
WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO ACCUMULATE QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE A CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE TWIN TIERS...HOWEVER IN THIS AREA AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH RESULTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SO WHILE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN TWIN TIERS TO CENTRAL NY
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE MAY BE QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY...PROBABLY
ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS VIA 290-300 FLOW IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK...LINGERING AS FLURRIES EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY LOW TO MID TEENS TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW...THOUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY GET CLOSER TO 10
BELOW. WE ARE FIGURING ON WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO INDEED...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE. HOWEVER...THIS ONE
WILL NOT BE AS LONG LIVED AS RECENT EPISODES. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE...HIGHS UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT MILDER TIMES
ARE EN ROUTE FOR THE WEEKEND. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE DRY ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
APPROACHES...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE /PROBABLY EVEN
RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS IN A STATE OF FLUX AWAY FROM THE
VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN AND, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
IN THESE SITUATIONS, THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE THAN AVERAGE IN
THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. THAT SAID, THE
OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS WITH WEAK, FAST
MOVING SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AN INITIAL
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
OR LESS AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 ALONG WITH SOME DEVELOPING SUNSHINE. BEYOND THIS TIME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT ARE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. THE MELTING OF SNOW
ICE SHOULD BE TEMPERED, HOWEVER, BY OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT LOOK TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE...

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD FOR KITH/KBGM/KELM
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VIS FOR THESE SITES.
FOR KAVP, MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF SNOW
MOVING IN AND EFFECTING THE AREA FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR VIS WITH THIS SNOW DROPPING AT TIMES TO
IFR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS EVENING. ONCE THE
SNOW MOVES OUT BY THURSDAY MORNING, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR. FOR KSYR/KRME EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE LIFTING TO LOW END VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SPARK SOME FLURRIES FOR KSYR.

GENERALLY EXPECT WEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
MORE NW THIS EVENING AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY FOR KSYR/KRME

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...PCF








000
FXUS61 KBGM 041948
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
248 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE FAR SE CWA.
SINCE TEMPS IN THIS REGION ARE IN THE MID 30S ANY LINGERING PRECIP
HERE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST
NAM INDICATES LOW LEVEL CAA WILL WAIT UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING
WHEN THE COLD FRONT STARTS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH REGION. TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CURRENTS
UNDER WEAK CAA AND CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES. IN THE NRN CWA
SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

7 AM EST UPDATE... ALLOWED REMAINDER OF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THAT
BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES IN MOST PLACES REMAIN AROUND
FREEZING...AND THE EARLIER SNOW-SLEET-ICE WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE
ON UNTREATED ROADS IN ADDITION TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE-FREEZING
RAIN /MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE CONCERNS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...
NO REST OF THE WEARY...MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT DRAGS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY...WILL STALL
OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...AT THE SAME TIME A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED FAIRLY WELL
ON A CHUNK OF NORTHEAST PA TO WESTERN CATSKILLS NY RECEIVING
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW...YET THE HEAVIEST OF IT WILL FALL IN
SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PA...INTO NEW JERSEY AND DOWNSTATE NY.
ANY SLIGHT JOG NORTHWARD TO THIS TRACK COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW
INTO A PORTION OF OUR AREA...SO AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. AND EVEN IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS NO
SLOUCH AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS WAVE WILL FEATURE NICE JET SUPPORT AND A THICK LAYER OF
FORCED ASCENT WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
COMPARED TO THE EVENT THAT JUST WRAPPED UP...BEING THE COLD SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SNOW WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND FLUFFIER
WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO ACCUMULATE QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE A CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE TWIN TIERS...HOWEVER IN THIS AREA AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH RESULTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SO WHILE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN TWIN TIERS TO CENTRAL NY
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE MAY BE QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY...PROBABLY
ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS VIA 290-300 FLOW IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK...LINGERING AS FLURRIES EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY LOW TO MID TEENS TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW...THOUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY GET CLOSER TO 10
BELOW. WE ARE FIGURING ON WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO INDEED...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE. HOWEVER...THIS ONE
WILL NOT BE AS LONG LIVED AS RECENT EPISODES. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE...HIGHS UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT MILDER TIMES
ARE EN ROUTE FOR THE WEEKEND. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE DRY ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
APPROACHES...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE /PROBABLY EVEN
RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS IN A STATE OF FLUX AWAY FROM THE
VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN AND, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
IN THESE SITUATIONS, THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE THAN AVERAGE IN
THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. THAT SAID, THE
OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS WITH WEAK, FAST
MOVING SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AN INITIAL
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
OR LESS AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 ALONG WITH SOME DEVELOPING SUNSHINE. BEYOND THIS TIME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT ARE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. THE MELTING OF SNOW
ICE SHOULD BE TEMPERED, HOWEVER, BY OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT LOOK TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE...

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD FOR KITH/KBGM/KELM
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VIS FOR THESE SITES.
FOR KAVP, MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF SNOW
MOVING IN AND EFFECTING THE AREA FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR VIS WITH THIS SNOW DROPPING AT TIMES TO
IFR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS EVENING. ONCE THE
SNOW MOVES OUT BY THURSDAY MORNING, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR. FOR KSYR/KRME EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE LIFTING TO LOW END VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SPARK SOME FLURRIES FOR KSYR.

GENERALLY EXPECT WEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
MORE NW THIS EVENING AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY FOR KSYR/KRME

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 041748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE FAR SE CWA.
SINCE TEMPS IN THIS REGION ARE IN THE MID 30S ANY LINGERING PRECIP
HERE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST
NAM INDICATES LOW LEVEL CAA WILL WAIT UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING
WHEN THE COLD FRONT STARTS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH REGION. TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CURRENTS
UNDER WEAK CAA AND CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES. IN THE NRN CWA
SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

7 AM EST UPDATE... ALLOWED REMAINDER OF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THAT
BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES IN MOST PLACES REMAIN AROUND
FREEZING...AND THE EARLIER SNOW-SLEET-ICE WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE
ON UNTREATED ROADS IN ADDITION TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE-FREEZING
RAIN /MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE CONCERNS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
5 AM UPDATE...
NO REST OF THE WEARY...MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT DRAGS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY...WILL STALL
OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...AT THE SAME TIME A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED FAIRLY WELL
ON A CHUNK OF NORTHEAST PA TO WESTERN CATSKILLS NY RECEIVING
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW...YET THE HEAVIEST OF IT WILL FALL IN
SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PA...INTO NEW JERSEY AND DOWNSTATE NY.
ANY SLIGHT JOG NORTHWARD TO THIS TRACK COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW
INTO A PORTION OF OUR AREA...SO AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. AND EVEN IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS NO
SLOUCH AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS WAVE WILL FEATURE NICE JET SUPPORT AND A THICK LAYER OF
FORCED ASCENT WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
COMPARED TO THE EVENT THAT JUST WRAPPED UP...BEING THE COLD SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SNOW WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND FLUFFIER
WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO ACCUMULATE QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE A CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE TWIN TIERS...HOWEVER IN THIS AREA AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH RESULTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SO WHILE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN TWIN TIERS TO CENTRAL NY
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE MAY BE QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY...PROBABLY
ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS VIA 290-300 FLOW IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK...LINGERING AS FLURRIES EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY LOW TO MID TEENS TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW...THOUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY GET CLOSER TO 10
BELOW. WE ARE FIGURING ON WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO INDEED...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE. HOWEVER...THIS ONE
WILL NOT BE AS LONG LIVED AS RECENT EPISODES. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE...HIGHS UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT MILDER TIMES
ARE EN ROUTE FOR THE WEEKEND. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE DRY ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
APPROACHES...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE /PROBABLY EVEN
RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE...

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD FOR KITH/KBGM/KELM
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VIS FOR THESE SITES.
FOR KAVP, MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF SNOW
MOVING IN AND EFFECTING THE AREA FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR VIS WITH THIS SNOW DROPPING AT TIMES TO
IFR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS EVENING. ONCE THE
SNOW MOVES OUT BY THURSDAY MORNING, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR. FOR KSYR/KRME EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE LIFTING TO LOW END VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SPARK SOME FLURRIES FOR KSYR.

GENERALLY EXPECT WEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
MORE NW THIS EVENING AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...PCF








000
FXUS61 KBGM 041748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE FAR SE CWA.
SINCE TEMPS IN THIS REGION ARE IN THE MID 30S ANY LINGERING PRECIP
HERE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST
NAM INDICATES LOW LEVEL CAA WILL WAIT UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING
WHEN THE COLD FRONT STARTS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH REGION. TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CURRENTS
UNDER WEAK CAA AND CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES. IN THE NRN CWA
SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

7 AM EST UPDATE... ALLOWED REMAINDER OF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THAT
BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES IN MOST PLACES REMAIN AROUND
FREEZING...AND THE EARLIER SNOW-SLEET-ICE WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE
ON UNTREATED ROADS IN ADDITION TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE-FREEZING
RAIN /MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE CONCERNS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
5 AM UPDATE...
NO REST OF THE WEARY...MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT DRAGS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY...WILL STALL
OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...AT THE SAME TIME A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED FAIRLY WELL
ON A CHUNK OF NORTHEAST PA TO WESTERN CATSKILLS NY RECEIVING
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW...YET THE HEAVIEST OF IT WILL FALL IN
SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PA...INTO NEW JERSEY AND DOWNSTATE NY.
ANY SLIGHT JOG NORTHWARD TO THIS TRACK COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW
INTO A PORTION OF OUR AREA...SO AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. AND EVEN IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS NO
SLOUCH AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS WAVE WILL FEATURE NICE JET SUPPORT AND A THICK LAYER OF
FORCED ASCENT WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
COMPARED TO THE EVENT THAT JUST WRAPPED UP...BEING THE COLD SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SNOW WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND FLUFFIER
WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO ACCUMULATE QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE A CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE TWIN TIERS...HOWEVER IN THIS AREA AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH RESULTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SO WHILE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN TWIN TIERS TO CENTRAL NY
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE MAY BE QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY...PROBABLY
ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS VIA 290-300 FLOW IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK...LINGERING AS FLURRIES EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY LOW TO MID TEENS TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW...THOUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY GET CLOSER TO 10
BELOW. WE ARE FIGURING ON WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO INDEED...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE. HOWEVER...THIS ONE
WILL NOT BE AS LONG LIVED AS RECENT EPISODES. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE...HIGHS UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT MILDER TIMES
ARE EN ROUTE FOR THE WEEKEND. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE DRY ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
APPROACHES...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE /PROBABLY EVEN
RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE...

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD FOR KITH/KBGM/KELM
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VIS FOR THESE SITES.
FOR KAVP, MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF SNOW
MOVING IN AND EFFECTING THE AREA FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR VIS WITH THIS SNOW DROPPING AT TIMES TO
IFR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS EVENING. ONCE THE
SNOW MOVES OUT BY THURSDAY MORNING, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR. FOR KSYR/KRME EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE LIFTING TO LOW END VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SPARK SOME FLURRIES FOR KSYR.

GENERALLY EXPECT WEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
MORE NW THIS EVENING AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...PCF








000
FXUS61 KBGM 041748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE FAR SE CWA.
SINCE TEMPS IN THIS REGION ARE IN THE MID 30S ANY LINGERING PRECIP
HERE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST
NAM INDICATES LOW LEVEL CAA WILL WAIT UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING
WHEN THE COLD FRONT STARTS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH REGION. TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CURRENTS
UNDER WEAK CAA AND CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES. IN THE NRN CWA
SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

7 AM EST UPDATE... ALLOWED REMAINDER OF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THAT
BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES IN MOST PLACES REMAIN AROUND
FREEZING...AND THE EARLIER SNOW-SLEET-ICE WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE
ON UNTREATED ROADS IN ADDITION TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE-FREEZING
RAIN /MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE CONCERNS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
5 AM UPDATE...
NO REST OF THE WEARY...MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT DRAGS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY...WILL STALL
OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...AT THE SAME TIME A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED FAIRLY WELL
ON A CHUNK OF NORTHEAST PA TO WESTERN CATSKILLS NY RECEIVING
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW...YET THE HEAVIEST OF IT WILL FALL IN
SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PA...INTO NEW JERSEY AND DOWNSTATE NY.
ANY SLIGHT JOG NORTHWARD TO THIS TRACK COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW
INTO A PORTION OF OUR AREA...SO AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. AND EVEN IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS NO
SLOUCH AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS WAVE WILL FEATURE NICE JET SUPPORT AND A THICK LAYER OF
FORCED ASCENT WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
COMPARED TO THE EVENT THAT JUST WRAPPED UP...BEING THE COLD SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SNOW WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND FLUFFIER
WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO ACCUMULATE QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE A CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE TWIN TIERS...HOWEVER IN THIS AREA AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH RESULTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SO WHILE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN TWIN TIERS TO CENTRAL NY
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE MAY BE QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY...PROBABLY
ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS VIA 290-300 FLOW IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK...LINGERING AS FLURRIES EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY LOW TO MID TEENS TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW...THOUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY GET CLOSER TO 10
BELOW. WE ARE FIGURING ON WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO INDEED...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE. HOWEVER...THIS ONE
WILL NOT BE AS LONG LIVED AS RECENT EPISODES. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE...HIGHS UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT MILDER TIMES
ARE EN ROUTE FOR THE WEEKEND. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE DRY ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
APPROACHES...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE /PROBABLY EVEN
RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE...

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD FOR KITH/KBGM/KELM
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VIS FOR THESE SITES.
FOR KAVP, MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF SNOW
MOVING IN AND EFFECTING THE AREA FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR VIS WITH THIS SNOW DROPPING AT TIMES TO
IFR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS EVENING. ONCE THE
SNOW MOVES OUT BY THURSDAY MORNING, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR. FOR KSYR/KRME EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE LIFTING TO LOW END VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SPARK SOME FLURRIES FOR KSYR.

GENERALLY EXPECT WEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
MORE NW THIS EVENING AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 041748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE FAR SE CWA.
SINCE TEMPS IN THIS REGION ARE IN THE MID 30S ANY LINGERING PRECIP
HERE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST
NAM INDICATES LOW LEVEL CAA WILL WAIT UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING
WHEN THE COLD FRONT STARTS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH REGION. TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CURRENTS
UNDER WEAK CAA AND CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES. IN THE NRN CWA
SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

7 AM EST UPDATE... ALLOWED REMAINDER OF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THAT
BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES IN MOST PLACES REMAIN AROUND
FREEZING...AND THE EARLIER SNOW-SLEET-ICE WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE
ON UNTREATED ROADS IN ADDITION TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE-FREEZING
RAIN /MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE CONCERNS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
5 AM UPDATE...
NO REST OF THE WEARY...MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT DRAGS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY...WILL STALL
OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...AT THE SAME TIME A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED FAIRLY WELL
ON A CHUNK OF NORTHEAST PA TO WESTERN CATSKILLS NY RECEIVING
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW...YET THE HEAVIEST OF IT WILL FALL IN
SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PA...INTO NEW JERSEY AND DOWNSTATE NY.
ANY SLIGHT JOG NORTHWARD TO THIS TRACK COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW
INTO A PORTION OF OUR AREA...SO AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. AND EVEN IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS NO
SLOUCH AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS WAVE WILL FEATURE NICE JET SUPPORT AND A THICK LAYER OF
FORCED ASCENT WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
COMPARED TO THE EVENT THAT JUST WRAPPED UP...BEING THE COLD SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SNOW WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND FLUFFIER
WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO ACCUMULATE QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE A CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE TWIN TIERS...HOWEVER IN THIS AREA AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH RESULTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SO WHILE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN TWIN TIERS TO CENTRAL NY
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE MAY BE QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY...PROBABLY
ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS VIA 290-300 FLOW IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK...LINGERING AS FLURRIES EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY LOW TO MID TEENS TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW...THOUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY GET CLOSER TO 10
BELOW. WE ARE FIGURING ON WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO INDEED...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE. HOWEVER...THIS ONE
WILL NOT BE AS LONG LIVED AS RECENT EPISODES. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE...HIGHS UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT MILDER TIMES
ARE EN ROUTE FOR THE WEEKEND. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE DRY ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
APPROACHES...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE /PROBABLY EVEN
RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE...

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD FOR KITH/KBGM/KELM
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VIS FOR THESE SITES.
FOR KAVP, MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF SNOW
MOVING IN AND EFFECTING THE AREA FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR VIS WITH THIS SNOW DROPPING AT TIMES TO
IFR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS EVENING. ONCE THE
SNOW MOVES OUT BY THURSDAY MORNING, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR. FOR KSYR/KRME EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DOMINATE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE LIFTING TO LOW END VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SPARK SOME FLURRIES FOR KSYR.

GENERALLY EXPECT WEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
MORE NW THIS EVENING AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 041549
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1049 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE FAR SE CWA.
SINCE TEMPS IN THIS REGION ARE IN THE MID 30S ANY LINGERING PRECIP
HERE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST
NAM INDICATES LOW LEVEL CAA WILL WAIT UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING
WHEN THE COLD FRONT STARTS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH REGION. TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CURRENTS
UNDER WEAK CAA AND CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES. IN THE NRN CWA
SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

7 AM EST UPDATE... ALLOWED REMAINDER OF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THAT
BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES IN MOST PLACES REMAIN AROUND
FREEZING...AND THE EARLIER SNOW-SLEET-ICE WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE
ON UNTREATED ROADS IN ADDITION TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE-FREEZING
RAIN /MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE CONCERNS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
5 AM UPDATE...
NO REST OF THE WEARY...MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT DRAGS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY...WILL STALL
OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...AT THE SAME TIME A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED FAIRLY WELL
ON A CHUNK OF NORTHEAST PA TO WESTERN CATSKILLS NY RECEIVING
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW...YET THE HEAVIEST OF IT WILL FALL IN
SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PA...INTO NEW JERSEY AND DOWNSTATE NY.
ANY SLIGHT JOG NORTHWARD TO THIS TRACK COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW
INTO A PORTION OF OUR AREA...SO AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. AND EVEN IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS NO
SLOUCH AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS WAVE WILL FEATURE NICE JET SUPPORT AND A THICK LAYER OF
FORCED ASCENT WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
COMPARED TO THE EVENT THAT JUST WRAPPED UP...BEING THE COLD SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SNOW WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND FLUFFIER
WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO ACCUMULATE QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE A CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE TWIN TIERS...HOWEVER IN THIS AREA AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH RESULTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SO WHILE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN TWIN TIERS TO CENTRAL NY
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE MAY BE QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY...PROBABLY
ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS VIA 290-300 FLOW IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK...LINGERING AS FLURRIES EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY LOW TO MID TEENS TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW...THOUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY GET CLOSER TO 10
BELOW. WE ARE FIGURING ON WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO INDEED...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE. HOWEVER...THIS ONE
WILL NOT BE AS LONG LIVED AS RECENT EPISODES. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE...HIGHS UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT MILDER TIMES
ARE EN ROUTE FOR THE WEEKEND. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE DRY ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
APPROACHES...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE /PROBABLY EVEN
RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 AM WED UPDATE...

LOW END MVFR CIGS DOMINATE WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
STEADY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AT AVP WHICH SHOULD END BY 15Z.

BGM HAS DENSE FOG AND LIFR CIGS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR CIG/MVFR VSBY LATE MORNING THEN MVFR
THIS AFTN. AVP AND ITH COULD FALL TO IFR UP TO 14Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY TODAY AS CIGS RISE TO 2500 FEET
LATE MORN AND AFTN.

TONIGHT AN AREA OF SNOW COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS AVP WITH AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. IN NY BUT NW LL FLOW COULD DROP CIGS AT BGM
ITH TO 1500 FT ESPECIALLY LATE.

W WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY. THIS EVE W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 041549
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1049 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE FAR SE CWA.
SINCE TEMPS IN THIS REGION ARE IN THE MID 30S ANY LINGERING PRECIP
HERE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST
NAM INDICATES LOW LEVEL CAA WILL WAIT UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING
WHEN THE COLD FRONT STARTS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH REGION. TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CURRENTS
UNDER WEAK CAA AND CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES. IN THE NRN CWA
SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

7 AM EST UPDATE... ALLOWED REMAINDER OF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THAT
BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES IN MOST PLACES REMAIN AROUND
FREEZING...AND THE EARLIER SNOW-SLEET-ICE WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE
ON UNTREATED ROADS IN ADDITION TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE-FREEZING
RAIN /MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE CONCERNS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
5 AM UPDATE...
NO REST OF THE WEARY...MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT DRAGS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY...WILL STALL
OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...AT THE SAME TIME A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED FAIRLY WELL
ON A CHUNK OF NORTHEAST PA TO WESTERN CATSKILLS NY RECEIVING
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW...YET THE HEAVIEST OF IT WILL FALL IN
SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PA...INTO NEW JERSEY AND DOWNSTATE NY.
ANY SLIGHT JOG NORTHWARD TO THIS TRACK COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW
INTO A PORTION OF OUR AREA...SO AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. AND EVEN IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS NO
SLOUCH AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS WAVE WILL FEATURE NICE JET SUPPORT AND A THICK LAYER OF
FORCED ASCENT WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
COMPARED TO THE EVENT THAT JUST WRAPPED UP...BEING THE COLD SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SNOW WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND FLUFFIER
WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO ACCUMULATE QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE A CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE TWIN TIERS...HOWEVER IN THIS AREA AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH RESULTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SO WHILE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN TWIN TIERS TO CENTRAL NY
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE MAY BE QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY...PROBABLY
ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS VIA 290-300 FLOW IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK...LINGERING AS FLURRIES EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY LOW TO MID TEENS TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW...THOUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY GET CLOSER TO 10
BELOW. WE ARE FIGURING ON WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO INDEED...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE. HOWEVER...THIS ONE
WILL NOT BE AS LONG LIVED AS RECENT EPISODES. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE...HIGHS UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT MILDER TIMES
ARE EN ROUTE FOR THE WEEKEND. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE DRY ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
APPROACHES...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE /PROBABLY EVEN
RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 AM WED UPDATE...

LOW END MVFR CIGS DOMINATE WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
STEADY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AT AVP WHICH SHOULD END BY 15Z.

BGM HAS DENSE FOG AND LIFR CIGS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR CIG/MVFR VSBY LATE MORNING THEN MVFR
THIS AFTN. AVP AND ITH COULD FALL TO IFR UP TO 14Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY TODAY AS CIGS RISE TO 2500 FEET
LATE MORN AND AFTN.

TONIGHT AN AREA OF SNOW COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS AVP WITH AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. IN NY BUT NW LL FLOW COULD DROP CIGS AT BGM
ITH TO 1500 FT ESPECIALLY LATE.

W WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY. THIS EVE W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 041549
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1049 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE FAR SE CWA.
SINCE TEMPS IN THIS REGION ARE IN THE MID 30S ANY LINGERING PRECIP
HERE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST
NAM INDICATES LOW LEVEL CAA WILL WAIT UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING
WHEN THE COLD FRONT STARTS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH REGION. TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CURRENTS
UNDER WEAK CAA AND CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES. IN THE NRN CWA
SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

7 AM EST UPDATE... ALLOWED REMAINDER OF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THAT
BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES IN MOST PLACES REMAIN AROUND
FREEZING...AND THE EARLIER SNOW-SLEET-ICE WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE
ON UNTREATED ROADS IN ADDITION TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE-FREEZING
RAIN /MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE CONCERNS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
5 AM UPDATE...
NO REST OF THE WEARY...MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT DRAGS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY...WILL STALL
OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...AT THE SAME TIME A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED FAIRLY WELL
ON A CHUNK OF NORTHEAST PA TO WESTERN CATSKILLS NY RECEIVING
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW...YET THE HEAVIEST OF IT WILL FALL IN
SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PA...INTO NEW JERSEY AND DOWNSTATE NY.
ANY SLIGHT JOG NORTHWARD TO THIS TRACK COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW
INTO A PORTION OF OUR AREA...SO AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. AND EVEN IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS NO
SLOUCH AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS WAVE WILL FEATURE NICE JET SUPPORT AND A THICK LAYER OF
FORCED ASCENT WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
COMPARED TO THE EVENT THAT JUST WRAPPED UP...BEING THE COLD SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SNOW WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND FLUFFIER
WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO ACCUMULATE QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE A CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE TWIN TIERS...HOWEVER IN THIS AREA AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH RESULTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SO WHILE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN TWIN TIERS TO CENTRAL NY
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE MAY BE QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY...PROBABLY
ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS VIA 290-300 FLOW IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK...LINGERING AS FLURRIES EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY LOW TO MID TEENS TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW...THOUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY GET CLOSER TO 10
BELOW. WE ARE FIGURING ON WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO INDEED...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE. HOWEVER...THIS ONE
WILL NOT BE AS LONG LIVED AS RECENT EPISODES. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE...HIGHS UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT MILDER TIMES
ARE EN ROUTE FOR THE WEEKEND. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE DRY ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
APPROACHES...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE /PROBABLY EVEN
RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 AM WED UPDATE...

LOW END MVFR CIGS DOMINATE WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
STEADY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AT AVP WHICH SHOULD END BY 15Z.

BGM HAS DENSE FOG AND LIFR CIGS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR CIG/MVFR VSBY LATE MORNING THEN MVFR
THIS AFTN. AVP AND ITH COULD FALL TO IFR UP TO 14Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY TODAY AS CIGS RISE TO 2500 FEET
LATE MORN AND AFTN.

TONIGHT AN AREA OF SNOW COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS AVP WITH AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. IN NY BUT NW LL FLOW COULD DROP CIGS AT BGM
ITH TO 1500 FT ESPECIALLY LATE.

W WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY. THIS EVE W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 041549
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1049 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE FAR SE CWA.
SINCE TEMPS IN THIS REGION ARE IN THE MID 30S ANY LINGERING PRECIP
HERE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST
NAM INDICATES LOW LEVEL CAA WILL WAIT UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING
WHEN THE COLD FRONT STARTS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH REGION. TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CURRENTS
UNDER WEAK CAA AND CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES. IN THE NRN CWA
SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

7 AM EST UPDATE... ALLOWED REMAINDER OF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THAT
BEING SAID...TEMPERATURES IN MOST PLACES REMAIN AROUND
FREEZING...AND THE EARLIER SNOW-SLEET-ICE WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE
ON UNTREATED ROADS IN ADDITION TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE-FREEZING
RAIN /MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE CONCERNS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
5 AM UPDATE...
NO REST OF THE WEARY...MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT DRAGS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY...WILL STALL
OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...AT THE SAME TIME A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED FAIRLY WELL
ON A CHUNK OF NORTHEAST PA TO WESTERN CATSKILLS NY RECEIVING
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW...YET THE HEAVIEST OF IT WILL FALL IN
SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PA...INTO NEW JERSEY AND DOWNSTATE NY.
ANY SLIGHT JOG NORTHWARD TO THIS TRACK COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW
INTO A PORTION OF OUR AREA...SO AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. AND EVEN IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS NO
SLOUCH AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS WAVE WILL FEATURE NICE JET SUPPORT AND A THICK LAYER OF
FORCED ASCENT WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
COMPARED TO THE EVENT THAT JUST WRAPPED UP...BEING THE COLD SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SNOW WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND FLUFFIER
WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO ACCUMULATE QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE A CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE TWIN TIERS...HOWEVER IN THIS AREA AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH RESULTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SO WHILE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN TWIN TIERS TO CENTRAL NY
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE MAY BE QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY...PROBABLY
ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS VIA 290-300 FLOW IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK...LINGERING AS FLURRIES EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY LOW TO MID TEENS TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW...THOUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY GET CLOSER TO 10
BELOW. WE ARE FIGURING ON WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO INDEED...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE. HOWEVER...THIS ONE
WILL NOT BE AS LONG LIVED AS RECENT EPISODES. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE...HIGHS UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT MILDER TIMES
ARE EN ROUTE FOR THE WEEKEND. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE DRY ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
APPROACHES...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE /PROBABLY EVEN
RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 AM WED UPDATE...

LOW END MVFR CIGS DOMINATE WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
STEADY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AT AVP WHICH SHOULD END BY 15Z.

BGM HAS DENSE FOG AND LIFR CIGS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR CIG/MVFR VSBY LATE MORNING THEN MVFR
THIS AFTN. AVP AND ITH COULD FALL TO IFR UP TO 14Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY TODAY AS CIGS RISE TO 2500 FEET
LATE MORN AND AFTN.

TONIGHT AN AREA OF SNOW COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS AVP WITH AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. IN NY BUT NW LL FLOW COULD DROP CIGS AT BGM
ITH TO 1500 FT ESPECIALLY LATE.

W WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY. THIS EVE W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 041203
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
703 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING...BUT SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY THANKS TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST PA TO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM EST UPDATE...
ALLOWED REMAINDER OF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED...WITH
PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THAT BEING
SAID...TEMPERATURES IN MOST PLACES REMAIN AROUND FREEZING...AND
THE EARLIER SNOW-SLEET-ICE WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE ON UNTREATED
ROADS IN ADDITION TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE-FREEZING RAIN /MAINLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE CONCERNS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
5 AM UPDATE...
NO REST OF THE WEARY...MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT DRAGS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY...WILL STALL
OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...AT THE SAME TIME A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED FAIRLY WELL
ON A CHUNK OF NORTHEAST PA TO WESTERN CATSKILLS NY RECEIVING
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW...YET THE HEAVIEST OF IT WILL FALL IN
SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PA...INTO NEW JERSEY AND DOWNSTATE NY.
ANY SLIGHT JOG NORTHWARD TO THIS TRACK COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW
INTO A PORTION OF OUR AREA...SO AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. AND EVEN IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS NO
SLOUCH AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS WAVE WILL FEATURE NICE JET SUPPORT AND A THICK LAYER OF
FORCED ASCENT WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
COMPARED TO THE EVENT THAT JUST WRAPPED UP...BEING THE COLD SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SNOW WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND FLUFFIER
WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO ACCUMULATE QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE A CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE TWIN TIERS...HOWEVER IN THIS AREA AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH RESULTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SO WHILE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN TWIN TIERS TO CENTRAL NY
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE MAY BE QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY...PROBABLY
ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS VIA 290-300 FLOW IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK...LINGERING AS FLURRIES EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY LOW TO MID TEENS TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW...THOUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY GET CLOSER TO 10
BELOW. WE ARE FIGURING ON WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO INDEED...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE. HOWEVER...THIS ONE
WILL NOT BE AS LONG LIVED AS RECENT EPISODES. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE...HIGHS UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT MILDER TIMES
ARE EN ROUTE FOR THE WEEKEND. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE DRY ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
APPROACHES...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE /PROBABLY EVEN
RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 AM WED UPDATE...

LOW END MVFR CIGS DOMINATE WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
STEADY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AT AVP WHICH SHOULD END BY 15Z.

BGM HAS DENSE FOG AND LIFR CIGS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR CIG/MVFR VSBY LATE MORNING THEN MVFR
THIS AFTN. AVP AND ITH COULD FALL TO IFR UP TO 14Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY TODAY AS CIGS RISE TO 2500 FEET
LATE MORN AND AFTN.

TONIGHT AN AREA OF SNOW COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS AVP WITH AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. IN NY BUT NW LL FLOW COULD DROP CIGS AT BGM
ITH TO 1500 FT ESPECIALLY LATE.

W WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY. THIS EVE W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 041203
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
703 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING...BUT SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY THANKS TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST PA TO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM EST UPDATE...
ALLOWED REMAINDER OF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED...WITH
PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THAT BEING
SAID...TEMPERATURES IN MOST PLACES REMAIN AROUND FREEZING...AND
THE EARLIER SNOW-SLEET-ICE WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE ON UNTREATED
ROADS IN ADDITION TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE-FREEZING RAIN /MAINLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE CONCERNS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
5 AM UPDATE...
NO REST OF THE WEARY...MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT DRAGS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY...WILL STALL
OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...AT THE SAME TIME A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED FAIRLY WELL
ON A CHUNK OF NORTHEAST PA TO WESTERN CATSKILLS NY RECEIVING
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW...YET THE HEAVIEST OF IT WILL FALL IN
SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PA...INTO NEW JERSEY AND DOWNSTATE NY.
ANY SLIGHT JOG NORTHWARD TO THIS TRACK COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW
INTO A PORTION OF OUR AREA...SO AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. AND EVEN IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS NO
SLOUCH AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS WAVE WILL FEATURE NICE JET SUPPORT AND A THICK LAYER OF
FORCED ASCENT WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
COMPARED TO THE EVENT THAT JUST WRAPPED UP...BEING THE COLD SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SNOW WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND FLUFFIER
WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO ACCUMULATE QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE A CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE TWIN TIERS...HOWEVER IN THIS AREA AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH RESULTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SO WHILE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN TWIN TIERS TO CENTRAL NY
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE MAY BE QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY...PROBABLY
ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS VIA 290-300 FLOW IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK...LINGERING AS FLURRIES EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY LOW TO MID TEENS TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW...THOUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY GET CLOSER TO 10
BELOW. WE ARE FIGURING ON WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO INDEED...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE. HOWEVER...THIS ONE
WILL NOT BE AS LONG LIVED AS RECENT EPISODES. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE...HIGHS UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT MILDER TIMES
ARE EN ROUTE FOR THE WEEKEND. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE DRY ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
APPROACHES...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE /PROBABLY EVEN
RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 AM WED UPDATE...

LOW END MVFR CIGS DOMINATE WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
STEADY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AT AVP WHICH SHOULD END BY 15Z.

BGM HAS DENSE FOG AND LIFR CIGS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR CIG/MVFR VSBY LATE MORNING THEN MVFR
THIS AFTN. AVP AND ITH COULD FALL TO IFR UP TO 14Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY TODAY AS CIGS RISE TO 2500 FEET
LATE MORN AND AFTN.

TONIGHT AN AREA OF SNOW COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS AVP WITH AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. IN NY BUT NW LL FLOW COULD DROP CIGS AT BGM
ITH TO 1500 FT ESPECIALLY LATE.

W WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY. THIS EVE W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 041203
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
703 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING...BUT SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY THANKS TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST PA TO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM EST UPDATE...
ALLOWED REMAINDER OF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED...WITH
PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THAT BEING
SAID...TEMPERATURES IN MOST PLACES REMAIN AROUND FREEZING...AND
THE EARLIER SNOW-SLEET-ICE WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE ON UNTREATED
ROADS IN ADDITION TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE-FREEZING RAIN /MAINLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE CONCERNS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
5 AM UPDATE...
NO REST OF THE WEARY...MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT DRAGS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY...WILL STALL
OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...AT THE SAME TIME A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED FAIRLY WELL
ON A CHUNK OF NORTHEAST PA TO WESTERN CATSKILLS NY RECEIVING
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW...YET THE HEAVIEST OF IT WILL FALL IN
SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PA...INTO NEW JERSEY AND DOWNSTATE NY.
ANY SLIGHT JOG NORTHWARD TO THIS TRACK COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW
INTO A PORTION OF OUR AREA...SO AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. AND EVEN IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS NO
SLOUCH AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS WAVE WILL FEATURE NICE JET SUPPORT AND A THICK LAYER OF
FORCED ASCENT WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
COMPARED TO THE EVENT THAT JUST WRAPPED UP...BEING THE COLD SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SNOW WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND FLUFFIER
WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO ACCUMULATE QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE A CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE TWIN TIERS...HOWEVER IN THIS AREA AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH RESULTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SO WHILE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN TWIN TIERS TO CENTRAL NY
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE MAY BE QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY...PROBABLY
ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS VIA 290-300 FLOW IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK...LINGERING AS FLURRIES EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY LOW TO MID TEENS TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW...THOUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY GET CLOSER TO 10
BELOW. WE ARE FIGURING ON WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO INDEED...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE. HOWEVER...THIS ONE
WILL NOT BE AS LONG LIVED AS RECENT EPISODES. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE...HIGHS UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT MILDER TIMES
ARE EN ROUTE FOR THE WEEKEND. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE DRY ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
APPROACHES...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE /PROBABLY EVEN
RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 AM WED UPDATE...

LOW END MVFR CIGS DOMINATE WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
STEADY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AT AVP WHICH SHOULD END BY 15Z.

BGM HAS DENSE FOG AND LIFR CIGS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR CIG/MVFR VSBY LATE MORNING THEN MVFR
THIS AFTN. AVP AND ITH COULD FALL TO IFR UP TO 14Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY TODAY AS CIGS RISE TO 2500 FEET
LATE MORN AND AFTN.

TONIGHT AN AREA OF SNOW COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS AVP WITH AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. IN NY BUT NW LL FLOW COULD DROP CIGS AT BGM
ITH TO 1500 FT ESPECIALLY LATE.

W WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY. THIS EVE W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 041152
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING...BUT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THANKS TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST PA TO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
445 AM EST UPDATE...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
5 AM UPDATE...
NO REST OF THE WEARY...MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT DRAGS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY...WILL STALL
OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...AT THE SAME TIME A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED FAIRLY WELL
ON A CHUNK OF NORTHEAST PA TO WESTERN CATSKILLS NY RECEIVING
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW...YET THE HEAVIEST OF IT WILL FALL IN
SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PA...INTO NEW JERSEY AND DOWNSTATE NY.
ANY SLIGHT JOG NORTHWARD TO THIS TRACK COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW
INTO A PORTION OF OUR AREA...SO AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. AND EVEN IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS NO
SLOUCH AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS WAVE WILL FEATURE NICE JET SUPPORT AND A THICK LAYER OF
FORCED ASCENT WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
COMPARED TO THE EVENT THAT JUST WRAPPED UP...BEING THE COLD SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SNOW WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND FLUFFIER
WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO ACCUMULATE QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE A CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE TWIN TIERS...HOWEVER IN THIS AREA AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH RESULTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SO WHILE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN TWIN TIERS TO CENTRAL NY
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE MAY BE QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY...PROBABLY
ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS VIA 290-300 FLOW IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK...LINGERING AS FLURRIES EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY LOW TO MID TEENS TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW...THOUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY GET CLOSER TO 10
BELOW. WE ARE FIGURING ON WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO INDEED...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE. HOWEVER...THIS ONE
WILL NOT BE AS LONG LIVED AS RECENT EPISODES. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE...HIGHS UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT MILDER TIMES
ARE EN ROUTE FOR THE WEEKEND. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE DRY ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
APPROACHES...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE /PROBABLY EVEN
RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 AM WED UPDATE...

LOW END MVFR CIGS DOMINATE WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
STEADY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AT AVP WHICH SHOULD END BY 15Z.

BGM HAS DENSE FOG AND LIFR CIGS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR CIG/MVFR VSBY LATE MORNING THEN MVFR
THIS AFTN. AVP AND ITH COULD FALL TO IFR UP TO 14Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY TODAY AS CIGS RISE TO 2500 FEET
LATE MORN AND AFTN.

TONIGHT AN AREA OF SNOW COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS AVP WITH AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. IN NY BUT NW LL FLOW COULD DROP CIGS AT BGM
ITH TO 1500 FT ESPECIALLY LATE.

W WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY. THIS EVE W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ045-
     046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 041152
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING...BUT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THANKS TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST PA TO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
445 AM EST UPDATE...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
5 AM UPDATE...
NO REST OF THE WEARY...MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT DRAGS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY...WILL STALL
OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...AT THE SAME TIME A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED FAIRLY WELL
ON A CHUNK OF NORTHEAST PA TO WESTERN CATSKILLS NY RECEIVING
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW...YET THE HEAVIEST OF IT WILL FALL IN
SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PA...INTO NEW JERSEY AND DOWNSTATE NY.
ANY SLIGHT JOG NORTHWARD TO THIS TRACK COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW
INTO A PORTION OF OUR AREA...SO AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. AND EVEN IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS NO
SLOUCH AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS WAVE WILL FEATURE NICE JET SUPPORT AND A THICK LAYER OF
FORCED ASCENT WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
COMPARED TO THE EVENT THAT JUST WRAPPED UP...BEING THE COLD SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SNOW WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND FLUFFIER
WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO ACCUMULATE QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE A CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE TWIN TIERS...HOWEVER IN THIS AREA AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH RESULTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SO WHILE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN TWIN TIERS TO CENTRAL NY
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE MAY BE QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY...PROBABLY
ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS VIA 290-300 FLOW IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK...LINGERING AS FLURRIES EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY LOW TO MID TEENS TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW...THOUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY GET CLOSER TO 10
BELOW. WE ARE FIGURING ON WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO INDEED...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE. HOWEVER...THIS ONE
WILL NOT BE AS LONG LIVED AS RECENT EPISODES. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE...HIGHS UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT MILDER TIMES
ARE EN ROUTE FOR THE WEEKEND. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE DRY ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
APPROACHES...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE /PROBABLY EVEN
RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 AM WED UPDATE...

LOW END MVFR CIGS DOMINATE WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
STEADY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AT AVP WHICH SHOULD END BY 15Z.

BGM HAS DENSE FOG AND LIFR CIGS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR CIG/MVFR VSBY LATE MORNING THEN MVFR
THIS AFTN. AVP AND ITH COULD FALL TO IFR UP TO 14Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY TODAY AS CIGS RISE TO 2500 FEET
LATE MORN AND AFTN.

TONIGHT AN AREA OF SNOW COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS AVP WITH AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. IN NY BUT NW LL FLOW COULD DROP CIGS AT BGM
ITH TO 1500 FT ESPECIALLY LATE.

W WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY. THIS EVE W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ045-
     046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 041152
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING...BUT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THANKS TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST PA TO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
445 AM EST UPDATE...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
5 AM UPDATE...
NO REST OF THE WEARY...MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT DRAGS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY...WILL STALL
OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...AT THE SAME TIME A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED FAIRLY WELL
ON A CHUNK OF NORTHEAST PA TO WESTERN CATSKILLS NY RECEIVING
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW...YET THE HEAVIEST OF IT WILL FALL IN
SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PA...INTO NEW JERSEY AND DOWNSTATE NY.
ANY SLIGHT JOG NORTHWARD TO THIS TRACK COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW
INTO A PORTION OF OUR AREA...SO AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. AND EVEN IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS NO
SLOUCH AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS WAVE WILL FEATURE NICE JET SUPPORT AND A THICK LAYER OF
FORCED ASCENT WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
COMPARED TO THE EVENT THAT JUST WRAPPED UP...BEING THE COLD SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SNOW WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND FLUFFIER
WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO ACCUMULATE QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE A CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE TWIN TIERS...HOWEVER IN THIS AREA AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH RESULTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SO WHILE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN TWIN TIERS TO CENTRAL NY
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE MAY BE QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY...PROBABLY
ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS VIA 290-300 FLOW IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK...LINGERING AS FLURRIES EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY LOW TO MID TEENS TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW...THOUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY GET CLOSER TO 10
BELOW. WE ARE FIGURING ON WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO INDEED...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE. HOWEVER...THIS ONE
WILL NOT BE AS LONG LIVED AS RECENT EPISODES. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE...HIGHS UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT MILDER TIMES
ARE EN ROUTE FOR THE WEEKEND. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE DRY ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
APPROACHES...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE /PROBABLY EVEN
RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 AM WED UPDATE...

LOW END MVFR CIGS DOMINATE WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
STEADY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AT AVP WHICH SHOULD END BY 15Z.

BGM HAS DENSE FOG AND LIFR CIGS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR CIG/MVFR VSBY LATE MORNING THEN MVFR
THIS AFTN. AVP AND ITH COULD FALL TO IFR UP TO 14Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY TODAY AS CIGS RISE TO 2500 FEET
LATE MORN AND AFTN.

TONIGHT AN AREA OF SNOW COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS AVP WITH AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. IN NY BUT NW LL FLOW COULD DROP CIGS AT BGM
ITH TO 1500 FT ESPECIALLY LATE.

W WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY. THIS EVE W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ045-
     046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 041024
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
524 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING...BUT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THANKS TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST PA TO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
445 AM EST UPDATE...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
5 AM UPDATE...
NO REST OF THE WEARY...MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT DRAGS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY...WILL STALL
OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...AT THE SAME TIME A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED FAIRLY WELL
ON A CHUNK OF NORTHEAST PA TO WESTERN CATSKILLS NY RECEIVING
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW...YET THE HEAVIEST OF IT WILL FALL IN
SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PA...INTO NEW JERSEY AND DOWNSTATE NY.
ANY SLIGHT JOG NORTHWARD TO THIS TRACK COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW
INTO A PORTION OF OUR AREA...SO AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. AND EVEN IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS NO
SLOUCH AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS WAVE WILL FEATURE NICE JET SUPPORT AND A THICK LAYER OF
FORCED ASCENT WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
COMPARED TO THE EVENT THAT JUST WRAPPED UP...BEING THE COLD SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SNOW WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND FLUFFIER
WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO ACCUMULATE QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE A CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE TWIN TIERS...HOWEVER IN THIS AREA AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH RESULTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SO WHILE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN TWIN TIERS TO CENTRAL NY
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE MAY BE QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY...PROBABLY
ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS VIA 290-300 FLOW IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK...LINGERING AS FLURRIES EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY LOW TO MID TEENS TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW...THOUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY GET CLOSER TO 10
BELOW. WE ARE FIGURING ON WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO INDEED...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE. HOWEVER...THIS ONE
WILL NOT BE AS LONG LIVED AS RECENT EPISODES. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE...HIGHS UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT MILDER TIMES
ARE EN ROUTE FOR THE WEEKEND. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE DRY ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
APPROACHES...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE /PROBABLY EVEN
RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1230 AM WED UPDATE...

LOW END MVFR CIGS DOMINATE WHILE STEADY PRECIP HAS ENDED. SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VSBYS UP TIL 13Z.

BGM ITH AVP COULD HAVE IFR CIGS UP TO 14Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING
THE DAY TODAY AS CIGS RISE TO 2500 FEET LATE MORN AND AFTN.

AN AREA OF SNOW COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS AVP WITH AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. IN NY DRY WITH STEADY
HIGH END MVFR CIGS.

S TO SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST BY 12Z. THIS AFTN
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.  THIS EVE W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED OVERNIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...OTHERWISE
MVFR DUE TO CIGS IN NY.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ045-
     046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 041024
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
524 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING...BUT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THANKS TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST PA TO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
445 AM EST UPDATE...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
5 AM UPDATE...
NO REST OF THE WEARY...MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT DRAGS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY...WILL STALL
OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...AT THE SAME TIME A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED FAIRLY WELL
ON A CHUNK OF NORTHEAST PA TO WESTERN CATSKILLS NY RECEIVING
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW...YET THE HEAVIEST OF IT WILL FALL IN
SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PA...INTO NEW JERSEY AND DOWNSTATE NY.
ANY SLIGHT JOG NORTHWARD TO THIS TRACK COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW
INTO A PORTION OF OUR AREA...SO AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. AND EVEN IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS NO
SLOUCH AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS WAVE WILL FEATURE NICE JET SUPPORT AND A THICK LAYER OF
FORCED ASCENT WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
COMPARED TO THE EVENT THAT JUST WRAPPED UP...BEING THE COLD SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SNOW WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND FLUFFIER
WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO ACCUMULATE QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE A CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE TWIN TIERS...HOWEVER IN THIS AREA AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH RESULTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SO WHILE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN TWIN TIERS TO CENTRAL NY
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE MAY BE QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY...PROBABLY
ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS VIA 290-300 FLOW IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK...LINGERING AS FLURRIES EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY LOW TO MID TEENS TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW...THOUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY GET CLOSER TO 10
BELOW. WE ARE FIGURING ON WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO INDEED...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE. HOWEVER...THIS ONE
WILL NOT BE AS LONG LIVED AS RECENT EPISODES. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE...HIGHS UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT MILDER TIMES
ARE EN ROUTE FOR THE WEEKEND. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE DRY ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
APPROACHES...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE /PROBABLY EVEN
RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1230 AM WED UPDATE...

LOW END MVFR CIGS DOMINATE WHILE STEADY PRECIP HAS ENDED. SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VSBYS UP TIL 13Z.

BGM ITH AVP COULD HAVE IFR CIGS UP TO 14Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING
THE DAY TODAY AS CIGS RISE TO 2500 FEET LATE MORN AND AFTN.

AN AREA OF SNOW COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS AVP WITH AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. IN NY DRY WITH STEADY
HIGH END MVFR CIGS.

S TO SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST BY 12Z. THIS AFTN
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.  THIS EVE W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED OVERNIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...OTHERWISE
MVFR DUE TO CIGS IN NY.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ045-
     046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 041024
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
524 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING...BUT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THANKS TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST PA TO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
445 AM EST UPDATE...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
5 AM UPDATE...
NO REST OF THE WEARY...MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT DRAGS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY...WILL STALL
OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...AT THE SAME TIME A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED FAIRLY WELL
ON A CHUNK OF NORTHEAST PA TO WESTERN CATSKILLS NY RECEIVING
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW...YET THE HEAVIEST OF IT WILL FALL IN
SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PA...INTO NEW JERSEY AND DOWNSTATE NY.
ANY SLIGHT JOG NORTHWARD TO THIS TRACK COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW
INTO A PORTION OF OUR AREA...SO AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. AND EVEN IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS NO
SLOUCH AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS WAVE WILL FEATURE NICE JET SUPPORT AND A THICK LAYER OF
FORCED ASCENT WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
COMPARED TO THE EVENT THAT JUST WRAPPED UP...BEING THE COLD SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SNOW WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND FLUFFIER
WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO ACCUMULATE QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE A CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE TWIN TIERS...HOWEVER IN THIS AREA AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH RESULTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SO WHILE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN TWIN TIERS TO CENTRAL NY
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE MAY BE QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY...PROBABLY
ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS VIA 290-300 FLOW IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK...LINGERING AS FLURRIES EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY LOW TO MID TEENS TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW...THOUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY GET CLOSER TO 10
BELOW. WE ARE FIGURING ON WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO INDEED...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE. HOWEVER...THIS ONE
WILL NOT BE AS LONG LIVED AS RECENT EPISODES. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE...HIGHS UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT MILDER TIMES
ARE EN ROUTE FOR THE WEEKEND. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE DRY ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
APPROACHES...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE /PROBABLY EVEN
RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1230 AM WED UPDATE...

LOW END MVFR CIGS DOMINATE WHILE STEADY PRECIP HAS ENDED. SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VSBYS UP TIL 13Z.

BGM ITH AVP COULD HAVE IFR CIGS UP TO 14Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING
THE DAY TODAY AS CIGS RISE TO 2500 FEET LATE MORN AND AFTN.

AN AREA OF SNOW COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS AVP WITH AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. IN NY DRY WITH STEADY
HIGH END MVFR CIGS.

S TO SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST BY 12Z. THIS AFTN
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.  THIS EVE W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED OVERNIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...OTHERWISE
MVFR DUE TO CIGS IN NY.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ045-
     046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 040957
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
457 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING...BUT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THANKS TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST PA TO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
445 AM EST UPDATE...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIGICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1230 AM WED UPDATE...

LOW END MVFR CIGS DOMINATE WHILE STEADY PRECIP HAS ENDED. SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VSBYS UP TIL 13Z.

BGM ITH AVP COULD HAVE IFR CIGS UP TO 14Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING
THE DAY TODAY AS CIGS RISE TO 2500 FEET LATE MORN AND AFTN.

AN AREA OF SNOW COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS AVP WITH AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. IN NY DRY WITH STEADY
HIGH END MVFR CIGS.

S TO SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST BY 12Z. THIS AFTN
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.  THIS EVE W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED OVERNIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...OTHERWISE
MVFR DUE TO CIGS IN NY.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ045-
     046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 040957
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
457 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING...BUT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THANKS TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST PA TO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
445 AM EST UPDATE...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIGICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1230 AM WED UPDATE...

LOW END MVFR CIGS DOMINATE WHILE STEADY PRECIP HAS ENDED. SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VSBYS UP TIL 13Z.

BGM ITH AVP COULD HAVE IFR CIGS UP TO 14Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING
THE DAY TODAY AS CIGS RISE TO 2500 FEET LATE MORN AND AFTN.

AN AREA OF SNOW COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS AVP WITH AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. IN NY DRY WITH STEADY
HIGH END MVFR CIGS.

S TO SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST BY 12Z. THIS AFTN
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.  THIS EVE W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED OVERNIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...OTHERWISE
MVFR DUE TO CIGS IN NY.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ045-
     046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 040716
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
216 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL DRAG THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PA INTO SULLIVAN
COUNTY NY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SCRANTON TO MONTICELLO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
120 AM EST UPDATE...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION HOURS AGO...WE
STILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OR TWO OF MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH
THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE
COLD THICK LAYER OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM
WEDGE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL
BURST OF SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO
REFREEZE INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. THE FEW REPORTS OF
FREEZING RAIN WAS IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST PA. HOWEVER...AT THIS
HOUR...ROME AND SYRACUSE NOW HAVE VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN-
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL STILL OCCUR AT TIMES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE WEAK ADDITIONAL WAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE SATURATED LAYER REMAINS ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS BELOW ZERO AT ITS COLDEST...MUCH OF IT EVEN
ABOVE FREEZING...SO OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION THERE WILL STILL
BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. YATES-STEUBEN-CAYUGA-SENECA
COUNTIES ARE GENERALLY GETTING ABOVE FREEZING NOW...WITH DRIZZLE
SPOTTY...SO WE HAVE DROPPED THOSE ZONES FROM THE ADVISORY WITH
OTHERS PROBABLY FOLLOWING LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIGICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1230 AM WED UPDATE...

LOW END MVFR CIGS DOMINATE WHILE STEADY PRECIP HAS ENDED. SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VSBYS UP TIL 13Z.

BGM ITH AVP COULD HAVE IFR CIGS UP TO 14Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING
THE DAY TODAY AS CIGS RISE TO 2500 FEET LATE MORN AND AFTN.

AN AREA OF SNOW COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS AVP WITH AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. IN NY DRY WITH STEADY
HIGH END MVFR CIGS.

S TO SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST BY 12Z. THIS AFTN
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.  THIS EVE W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED OVERNIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...OTHERWISE
MVFR DUE TO CIGS IN NY.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
     018-023>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 040716
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
216 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL DRAG THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PA INTO SULLIVAN
COUNTY NY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SCRANTON TO MONTICELLO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
120 AM EST UPDATE...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION HOURS AGO...WE
STILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OR TWO OF MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH
THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE
COLD THICK LAYER OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM
WEDGE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL
BURST OF SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO
REFREEZE INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. THE FEW REPORTS OF
FREEZING RAIN WAS IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST PA. HOWEVER...AT THIS
HOUR...ROME AND SYRACUSE NOW HAVE VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN-
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL STILL OCCUR AT TIMES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE WEAK ADDITIONAL WAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE SATURATED LAYER REMAINS ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS BELOW ZERO AT ITS COLDEST...MUCH OF IT EVEN
ABOVE FREEZING...SO OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION THERE WILL STILL
BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. YATES-STEUBEN-CAYUGA-SENECA
COUNTIES ARE GENERALLY GETTING ABOVE FREEZING NOW...WITH DRIZZLE
SPOTTY...SO WE HAVE DROPPED THOSE ZONES FROM THE ADVISORY WITH
OTHERS PROBABLY FOLLOWING LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIGICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1230 AM WED UPDATE...

LOW END MVFR CIGS DOMINATE WHILE STEADY PRECIP HAS ENDED. SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VSBYS UP TIL 13Z.

BGM ITH AVP COULD HAVE IFR CIGS UP TO 14Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING
THE DAY TODAY AS CIGS RISE TO 2500 FEET LATE MORN AND AFTN.

AN AREA OF SNOW COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS AVP WITH AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. IN NY DRY WITH STEADY
HIGH END MVFR CIGS.

S TO SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST BY 12Z. THIS AFTN
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.  THIS EVE W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED OVERNIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...OTHERWISE
MVFR DUE TO CIGS IN NY.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
     018-023>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 040716
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
216 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL DRAG THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PA INTO SULLIVAN
COUNTY NY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SCRANTON TO MONTICELLO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
120 AM EST UPDATE...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION HOURS AGO...WE
STILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OR TWO OF MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH
THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE
COLD THICK LAYER OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM
WEDGE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL
BURST OF SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO
REFREEZE INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. THE FEW REPORTS OF
FREEZING RAIN WAS IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST PA. HOWEVER...AT THIS
HOUR...ROME AND SYRACUSE NOW HAVE VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN-
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL STILL OCCUR AT TIMES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE WEAK ADDITIONAL WAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE SATURATED LAYER REMAINS ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS BELOW ZERO AT ITS COLDEST...MUCH OF IT EVEN
ABOVE FREEZING...SO OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION THERE WILL STILL
BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. YATES-STEUBEN-CAYUGA-SENECA
COUNTIES ARE GENERALLY GETTING ABOVE FREEZING NOW...WITH DRIZZLE
SPOTTY...SO WE HAVE DROPPED THOSE ZONES FROM THE ADVISORY WITH
OTHERS PROBABLY FOLLOWING LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIGICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1230 AM WED UPDATE...

LOW END MVFR CIGS DOMINATE WHILE STEADY PRECIP HAS ENDED. SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VSBYS UP TIL 13Z.

BGM ITH AVP COULD HAVE IFR CIGS UP TO 14Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING
THE DAY TODAY AS CIGS RISE TO 2500 FEET LATE MORN AND AFTN.

AN AREA OF SNOW COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS AVP WITH AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. IN NY DRY WITH STEADY
HIGH END MVFR CIGS.

S TO SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST BY 12Z. THIS AFTN
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.  THIS EVE W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED OVERNIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...OTHERWISE
MVFR DUE TO CIGS IN NY.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
     018-023>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 040716
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
216 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL DRAG THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PA INTO SULLIVAN
COUNTY NY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SCRANTON TO MONTICELLO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
120 AM EST UPDATE...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION HOURS AGO...WE
STILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OR TWO OF MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH
THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE
COLD THICK LAYER OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM
WEDGE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL
BURST OF SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO
REFREEZE INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. THE FEW REPORTS OF
FREEZING RAIN WAS IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST PA. HOWEVER...AT THIS
HOUR...ROME AND SYRACUSE NOW HAVE VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN-
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL STILL OCCUR AT TIMES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE WEAK ADDITIONAL WAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE SATURATED LAYER REMAINS ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS BELOW ZERO AT ITS COLDEST...MUCH OF IT EVEN
ABOVE FREEZING...SO OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION THERE WILL STILL
BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. YATES-STEUBEN-CAYUGA-SENECA
COUNTIES ARE GENERALLY GETTING ABOVE FREEZING NOW...WITH DRIZZLE
SPOTTY...SO WE HAVE DROPPED THOSE ZONES FROM THE ADVISORY WITH
OTHERS PROBABLY FOLLOWING LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIGICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1230 AM WED UPDATE...

LOW END MVFR CIGS DOMINATE WHILE STEADY PRECIP HAS ENDED. SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VSBYS UP TIL 13Z.

BGM ITH AVP COULD HAVE IFR CIGS UP TO 14Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING
THE DAY TODAY AS CIGS RISE TO 2500 FEET LATE MORN AND AFTN.

AN AREA OF SNOW COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS AVP WITH AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. IN NY DRY WITH STEADY
HIGH END MVFR CIGS.

S TO SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST BY 12Z. THIS AFTN
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.  THIS EVE W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED OVERNIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...OTHERWISE
MVFR DUE TO CIGS IN NY.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
     018-023>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 040628
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
128 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL DRAG THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PA INTO SULLIVAN
COUNTY NY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SCRANTON TO MONTICELLO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
120 AM EST UPDATE...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION HOURS AGO...WE
STILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OR TWO OF MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH
THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE
COLD THICK LAYER OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM
WEDGE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL
BURST OF SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO
REFREEZE INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. THE FEW REPORTS OF
FREEZING RAIN WAS IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST PA. HOWEVER...AT THIS
HOUR...ROME AND SYRACUSE NOW HAVE VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN-
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL STILL OCCUR AT TIMES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE WEAK ADDITIONAL WAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE SATURATED LAYER REMAINS ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS BELOW ZERO AT ITS COLDEST...MUCH OF IT EVEN
ABOVE FREEZING...SO OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION THERE WILL STILL
BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. YATES-STEUBEN-CAYUGA-SENECA
COUNTIES ARE GENERALLY GETTING ABOVE FREEZING NOW...WITH DRIZZLE
SPOTTY...SO WE HAVE DROPPED THOSE ZONES FROM THE ADVISORY WITH
OTHERS PROBABLY FOLLOWING LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z TUE UPDATE... A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE (PL THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH A LTL -FZRA PERHAPS MIXING IN)...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR OCNL IFR VSBY`S.

AFTER 03-05Z...THE STEADIEST PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF...LEAVING
MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES OVERNIGHT. THE ONE PSBL EXCEPTION COULD
BE KAVP...WHERE A BIT OF -RA OR -FZRA COULD RE-DVLP TWDS DAYBREAK.

ON WED...AGN...MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES ARE ANTICIPATED. A LTL
-RA OR -FZRA COULD LINGER EARLY IN THE DAY AT KAVP...AND OCNL SNOW
SHWRS WITH IFR VSBY`S COULD IMPACT KRME FROM TIME TO TIME.

GUSTY S TO SELY WINDS THIS EVE...WILL DIMINISH OUT OF THE SW LATE
TNT...WITH WRLY WINDS BCMG GUSTY AGN FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES ON WED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...AND POSSIBLY KITH KBGM
KELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
     018-023>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 040628
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
128 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL DRAG THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PA INTO SULLIVAN
COUNTY NY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SCRANTON TO MONTICELLO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
120 AM EST UPDATE...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION HOURS AGO...WE
STILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OR TWO OF MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH
THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE
COLD THICK LAYER OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM
WEDGE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL
BURST OF SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO
REFREEZE INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. THE FEW REPORTS OF
FREEZING RAIN WAS IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST PA. HOWEVER...AT THIS
HOUR...ROME AND SYRACUSE NOW HAVE VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN-
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL STILL OCCUR AT TIMES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE WEAK ADDITIONAL WAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE SATURATED LAYER REMAINS ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS BELOW ZERO AT ITS COLDEST...MUCH OF IT EVEN
ABOVE FREEZING...SO OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION THERE WILL STILL
BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. YATES-STEUBEN-CAYUGA-SENECA
COUNTIES ARE GENERALLY GETTING ABOVE FREEZING NOW...WITH DRIZZLE
SPOTTY...SO WE HAVE DROPPED THOSE ZONES FROM THE ADVISORY WITH
OTHERS PROBABLY FOLLOWING LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z TUE UPDATE... A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE (PL THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH A LTL -FZRA PERHAPS MIXING IN)...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR OCNL IFR VSBY`S.

AFTER 03-05Z...THE STEADIEST PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF...LEAVING
MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES OVERNIGHT. THE ONE PSBL EXCEPTION COULD
BE KAVP...WHERE A BIT OF -RA OR -FZRA COULD RE-DVLP TWDS DAYBREAK.

ON WED...AGN...MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES ARE ANTICIPATED. A LTL
-RA OR -FZRA COULD LINGER EARLY IN THE DAY AT KAVP...AND OCNL SNOW
SHWRS WITH IFR VSBY`S COULD IMPACT KRME FROM TIME TO TIME.

GUSTY S TO SELY WINDS THIS EVE...WILL DIMINISH OUT OF THE SW LATE
TNT...WITH WRLY WINDS BCMG GUSTY AGN FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES ON WED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...AND POSSIBLY KITH KBGM
KELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
     018-023>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 040628
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
128 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL DRAG THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PA INTO SULLIVAN
COUNTY NY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SCRANTON TO MONTICELLO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
120 AM EST UPDATE...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION HOURS AGO...WE
STILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OR TWO OF MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH
THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE
COLD THICK LAYER OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM
WEDGE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL
BURST OF SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO
REFREEZE INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. THE FEW REPORTS OF
FREEZING RAIN WAS IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST PA. HOWEVER...AT THIS
HOUR...ROME AND SYRACUSE NOW HAVE VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN-
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL STILL OCCUR AT TIMES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE WEAK ADDITIONAL WAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE SATURATED LAYER REMAINS ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS BELOW ZERO AT ITS COLDEST...MUCH OF IT EVEN
ABOVE FREEZING...SO OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION THERE WILL STILL
BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. YATES-STEUBEN-CAYUGA-SENECA
COUNTIES ARE GENERALLY GETTING ABOVE FREEZING NOW...WITH DRIZZLE
SPOTTY...SO WE HAVE DROPPED THOSE ZONES FROM THE ADVISORY WITH
OTHERS PROBABLY FOLLOWING LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z TUE UPDATE... A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE (PL THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH A LTL -FZRA PERHAPS MIXING IN)...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR OCNL IFR VSBY`S.

AFTER 03-05Z...THE STEADIEST PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF...LEAVING
MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES OVERNIGHT. THE ONE PSBL EXCEPTION COULD
BE KAVP...WHERE A BIT OF -RA OR -FZRA COULD RE-DVLP TWDS DAYBREAK.

ON WED...AGN...MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES ARE ANTICIPATED. A LTL
-RA OR -FZRA COULD LINGER EARLY IN THE DAY AT KAVP...AND OCNL SNOW
SHWRS WITH IFR VSBY`S COULD IMPACT KRME FROM TIME TO TIME.

GUSTY S TO SELY WINDS THIS EVE...WILL DIMINISH OUT OF THE SW LATE
TNT...WITH WRLY WINDS BCMG GUSTY AGN FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES ON WED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...AND POSSIBLY KITH KBGM
KELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
     018-023>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 040628
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
128 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL DRAG THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PA INTO SULLIVAN
COUNTY NY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SCRANTON TO MONTICELLO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
120 AM EST UPDATE...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION HOURS AGO...WE
STILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OR TWO OF MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH
THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE
COLD THICK LAYER OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM
WEDGE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL
BURST OF SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO
REFREEZE INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. THE FEW REPORTS OF
FREEZING RAIN WAS IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST PA. HOWEVER...AT THIS
HOUR...ROME AND SYRACUSE NOW HAVE VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN-
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL STILL OCCUR AT TIMES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE WEAK ADDITIONAL WAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE SATURATED LAYER REMAINS ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS BELOW ZERO AT ITS COLDEST...MUCH OF IT EVEN
ABOVE FREEZING...SO OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION THERE WILL STILL
BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. YATES-STEUBEN-CAYUGA-SENECA
COUNTIES ARE GENERALLY GETTING ABOVE FREEZING NOW...WITH DRIZZLE
SPOTTY...SO WE HAVE DROPPED THOSE ZONES FROM THE ADVISORY WITH
OTHERS PROBABLY FOLLOWING LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z TUE UPDATE... A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE (PL THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH A LTL -FZRA PERHAPS MIXING IN)...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR OCNL IFR VSBY`S.

AFTER 03-05Z...THE STEADIEST PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF...LEAVING
MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES OVERNIGHT. THE ONE PSBL EXCEPTION COULD
BE KAVP...WHERE A BIT OF -RA OR -FZRA COULD RE-DVLP TWDS DAYBREAK.

ON WED...AGN...MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES ARE ANTICIPATED. A LTL
-RA OR -FZRA COULD LINGER EARLY IN THE DAY AT KAVP...AND OCNL SNOW
SHWRS WITH IFR VSBY`S COULD IMPACT KRME FROM TIME TO TIME.

GUSTY S TO SELY WINDS THIS EVE...WILL DIMINISH OUT OF THE SW LATE
TNT...WITH WRLY WINDS BCMG GUSTY AGN FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES ON WED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...AND POSSIBLY KITH KBGM
KELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
     018-023>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 040320
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1020 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1000 PM EST UPDATE...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP HAVE PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LINGERS. PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE HOURS AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A
COATING OF ICE MAY OCCUR TONIGHT... THUS HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE
THE ADVISORY. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS AS THE WARM AIR
HAVE FINALLY MADE IT INTO CENTRAL NY. THIS WARM AIR WILL SLOWLY
ADVANCE EAST WITH TIME. FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
TOMORROW... AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP ATTM STILL EXISTS
ALONG THE FRONT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FORECAST... PLEASE
READ PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CC PRODUCT FROM THE
KBGM DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING SOME LOWER VALUES OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NORTHERN PA INDICATING SOME MIXING
ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SLEET AT PLACES LIKE ELM. THE NAM HAS DONE
A VERY GOOD JOB INDICATING A STRONG SURGE OF WARM AIR CENTERED
AROUND 800 MB OVERSPREADING NORTHERN PA AND CENTRAL NY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET
FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
RANGING FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WITH ONLY ABOUT 3 HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED
IN MOST PLACES ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE RANGING FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES AT MANY LOCATIONS... PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND A LITTLE MORE IN CENTRAL NY FROM
SYRACUSE TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. SLEET WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE WARM AIR DEEPENS...
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING... BEFORE EDGING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY
PLACES TOWARD 12Z.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z TUE UPDATE... A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE (PL THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH A LTL -FZRA PERHAPS MIXING IN)...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR OCNL IFR VSBY`S.

AFTER 03-05Z...THE STEADIEST PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF...LEAVING
MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES OVERNIGHT. THE ONE PSBL EXCEPTION COULD
BE KAVP...WHERE A BIT OF -RA OR -FZRA COULD RE-DVLP TWDS DAYBREAK.

ON WED...AGN...MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES ARE ANTICIPATED. A LTL
-RA OR -FZRA COULD LINGER EARLY IN THE DAY AT KAVP...AND OCNL SNOW
SHWRS WITH IFR VSBY`S COULD IMPACT KRME FROM TIME TO TIME.

GUSTY S TO SELY WINDS THIS EVE...WILL DIMINISH OUT OF THE SW LATE
TNT...WITH WRLY WINDS BCMG GUSTY AGN FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES ON WED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...AND POSSIBLY KITH KBGM
KELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 040320
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1020 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1000 PM EST UPDATE...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP HAVE PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LINGERS. PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE HOURS AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A
COATING OF ICE MAY OCCUR TONIGHT... THUS HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE
THE ADVISORY. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS AS THE WARM AIR
HAVE FINALLY MADE IT INTO CENTRAL NY. THIS WARM AIR WILL SLOWLY
ADVANCE EAST WITH TIME. FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
TOMORROW... AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP ATTM STILL EXISTS
ALONG THE FRONT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FORECAST... PLEASE
READ PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CC PRODUCT FROM THE
KBGM DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING SOME LOWER VALUES OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NORTHERN PA INDICATING SOME MIXING
ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SLEET AT PLACES LIKE ELM. THE NAM HAS DONE
A VERY GOOD JOB INDICATING A STRONG SURGE OF WARM AIR CENTERED
AROUND 800 MB OVERSPREADING NORTHERN PA AND CENTRAL NY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET
FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
RANGING FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WITH ONLY ABOUT 3 HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED
IN MOST PLACES ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE RANGING FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES AT MANY LOCATIONS... PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND A LITTLE MORE IN CENTRAL NY FROM
SYRACUSE TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. SLEET WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE WARM AIR DEEPENS...
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING... BEFORE EDGING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY
PLACES TOWARD 12Z.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z TUE UPDATE... A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE (PL THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH A LTL -FZRA PERHAPS MIXING IN)...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR OCNL IFR VSBY`S.

AFTER 03-05Z...THE STEADIEST PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF...LEAVING
MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES OVERNIGHT. THE ONE PSBL EXCEPTION COULD
BE KAVP...WHERE A BIT OF -RA OR -FZRA COULD RE-DVLP TWDS DAYBREAK.

ON WED...AGN...MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES ARE ANTICIPATED. A LTL
-RA OR -FZRA COULD LINGER EARLY IN THE DAY AT KAVP...AND OCNL SNOW
SHWRS WITH IFR VSBY`S COULD IMPACT KRME FROM TIME TO TIME.

GUSTY S TO SELY WINDS THIS EVE...WILL DIMINISH OUT OF THE SW LATE
TNT...WITH WRLY WINDS BCMG GUSTY AGN FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES ON WED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...AND POSSIBLY KITH KBGM
KELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM









000
FXUS61 KBGM 040320
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1020 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1000 PM EST UPDATE...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP HAVE PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LINGERS. PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE HOURS AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A
COATING OF ICE MAY OCCUR TONIGHT... THUS HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE
THE ADVISORY. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS AS THE WARM AIR
HAVE FINALLY MADE IT INTO CENTRAL NY. THIS WARM AIR WILL SLOWLY
ADVANCE EAST WITH TIME. FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
TOMORROW... AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP ATTM STILL EXISTS
ALONG THE FRONT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FORECAST... PLEASE
READ PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CC PRODUCT FROM THE
KBGM DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING SOME LOWER VALUES OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NORTHERN PA INDICATING SOME MIXING
ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SLEET AT PLACES LIKE ELM. THE NAM HAS DONE
A VERY GOOD JOB INDICATING A STRONG SURGE OF WARM AIR CENTERED
AROUND 800 MB OVERSPREADING NORTHERN PA AND CENTRAL NY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET
FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
RANGING FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WITH ONLY ABOUT 3 HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED
IN MOST PLACES ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE RANGING FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES AT MANY LOCATIONS... PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND A LITTLE MORE IN CENTRAL NY FROM
SYRACUSE TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. SLEET WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE WARM AIR DEEPENS...
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING... BEFORE EDGING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY
PLACES TOWARD 12Z.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z TUE UPDATE... A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE (PL THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH A LTL -FZRA PERHAPS MIXING IN)...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR OCNL IFR VSBY`S.

AFTER 03-05Z...THE STEADIEST PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF...LEAVING
MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES OVERNIGHT. THE ONE PSBL EXCEPTION COULD
BE KAVP...WHERE A BIT OF -RA OR -FZRA COULD RE-DVLP TWDS DAYBREAK.

ON WED...AGN...MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES ARE ANTICIPATED. A LTL
-RA OR -FZRA COULD LINGER EARLY IN THE DAY AT KAVP...AND OCNL SNOW
SHWRS WITH IFR VSBY`S COULD IMPACT KRME FROM TIME TO TIME.

GUSTY S TO SELY WINDS THIS EVE...WILL DIMINISH OUT OF THE SW LATE
TNT...WITH WRLY WINDS BCMG GUSTY AGN FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES ON WED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...AND POSSIBLY KITH KBGM
KELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 040320
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1020 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1000 PM EST UPDATE...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP HAVE PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LINGERS. PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE HOURS AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A
COATING OF ICE MAY OCCUR TONIGHT... THUS HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE
THE ADVISORY. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS AS THE WARM AIR
HAVE FINALLY MADE IT INTO CENTRAL NY. THIS WARM AIR WILL SLOWLY
ADVANCE EAST WITH TIME. FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
TOMORROW... AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP ATTM STILL EXISTS
ALONG THE FRONT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FORECAST... PLEASE
READ PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CC PRODUCT FROM THE
KBGM DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING SOME LOWER VALUES OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NORTHERN PA INDICATING SOME MIXING
ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SLEET AT PLACES LIKE ELM. THE NAM HAS DONE
A VERY GOOD JOB INDICATING A STRONG SURGE OF WARM AIR CENTERED
AROUND 800 MB OVERSPREADING NORTHERN PA AND CENTRAL NY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET
FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
RANGING FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WITH ONLY ABOUT 3 HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED
IN MOST PLACES ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE RANGING FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES AT MANY LOCATIONS... PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND A LITTLE MORE IN CENTRAL NY FROM
SYRACUSE TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. SLEET WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE WARM AIR DEEPENS...
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING... BEFORE EDGING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY
PLACES TOWARD 12Z.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z TUE UPDATE... A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE (PL THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH A LTL -FZRA PERHAPS MIXING IN)...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR OCNL IFR VSBY`S.

AFTER 03-05Z...THE STEADIEST PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF...LEAVING
MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES OVERNIGHT. THE ONE PSBL EXCEPTION COULD
BE KAVP...WHERE A BIT OF -RA OR -FZRA COULD RE-DVLP TWDS DAYBREAK.

ON WED...AGN...MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES ARE ANTICIPATED. A LTL
-RA OR -FZRA COULD LINGER EARLY IN THE DAY AT KAVP...AND OCNL SNOW
SHWRS WITH IFR VSBY`S COULD IMPACT KRME FROM TIME TO TIME.

GUSTY S TO SELY WINDS THIS EVE...WILL DIMINISH OUT OF THE SW LATE
TNT...WITH WRLY WINDS BCMG GUSTY AGN FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES ON WED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...AND POSSIBLY KITH KBGM
KELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM









000
FXUS61 KBGM 040025
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
725 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE WARM
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 PM EST UPDATE...
FORECAST HAS DONE VERY WELL SO FAR TONIGHT AND HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS A WIDE VARIETY OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. WITH SNOW STILL OVER THE FAR
EASTERN EDGES... TO SLEET OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CWA... TO
FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WEST. THE WARM AIR ALOFT TOOK LONGER THAN
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION... WHICH HAS THANKFULLY RESULTED
IN LESS FREEZING RAIN OVER THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE
STARTING TO PUSH OUT OF THE REGION.... AND THE BACK EDGE IS JUST
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL NY COMPRISED OF FREEZING RAIN.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED MOVE OUT OF THE CWA AROUND 10 PM
TONIGHT. SOME SPOTTY PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...
BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT BY 10. FOR MORE INFORMATION
PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CC PRODUCT FROM THE
KBGM DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING SOME LOWER VALUES OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NORTHERN PA INDICATING SOME MIXING
ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SLEET AT PLACES LIKE ELM. THE NAM HAS DONE
A VERY GOOD JOB INDICATING A STRONG SURGE OF WARM AIR CENTERED
AROUND 800 MB OVERSPREADING NORTHERN PA AND CENTRAL NY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET
FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
RANGING FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WITH ONLY ABOUT 3 HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED
IN MOST PLACES ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE RANGING FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES AT MANY LOCATIONS... PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND A LITTLE MORE IN CENTRAL NY FROM
SYRACUSE TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. SLEET WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE WARM AIR DEEPENS...
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING... BEFORE EDGING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY
PLACES TOWARD 12Z.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z TUE UPDATE... A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE (PL THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH A LTL -FZRA PERHAPS MIXING IN)...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR OCNL IFR VSBY`S.

AFTER 03-05Z...THE STEADIEST PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF...LEAVING
MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES OVERNIGHT. THE ONE PSBL EXCEPTION COULD
BE KAVP...WHERE A BIT OF -RA OR -FZRA COULD RE-DVLP TWDS DAYBREAK.

ON WED...AGN...MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES ARE ANTICIPATED. A LTL
-RA OR -FZRA COULD LINGER EARLY IN THE DAY AT KAVP...AND OCNL SNOW
SHWRS WITH IFR VSBY`S COULD IMPACT KRME FROM TIME TO TIME.

GUSTY S TO SELY WINDS THIS EVE...WILL DIMINISH OUT OF THE SW LATE
TNT...WITH WRLY WINDS BCMG GUSTY AGN FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES ON WED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...AND POSSIBLY KITH KBGM
KELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM









000
FXUS61 KBGM 040025
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
725 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE WARM
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 PM EST UPDATE...
FORECAST HAS DONE VERY WELL SO FAR TONIGHT AND HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS A WIDE VARIETY OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. WITH SNOW STILL OVER THE FAR
EASTERN EDGES... TO SLEET OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CWA... TO
FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WEST. THE WARM AIR ALOFT TOOK LONGER THAN
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION... WHICH HAS THANKFULLY RESULTED
IN LESS FREEZING RAIN OVER THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE
STARTING TO PUSH OUT OF THE REGION.... AND THE BACK EDGE IS JUST
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL NY COMPRISED OF FREEZING RAIN.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED MOVE OUT OF THE CWA AROUND 10 PM
TONIGHT. SOME SPOTTY PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...
BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT BY 10. FOR MORE INFORMATION
PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CC PRODUCT FROM THE
KBGM DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING SOME LOWER VALUES OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NORTHERN PA INDICATING SOME MIXING
ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SLEET AT PLACES LIKE ELM. THE NAM HAS DONE
A VERY GOOD JOB INDICATING A STRONG SURGE OF WARM AIR CENTERED
AROUND 800 MB OVERSPREADING NORTHERN PA AND CENTRAL NY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET
FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
RANGING FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WITH ONLY ABOUT 3 HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED
IN MOST PLACES ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE RANGING FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES AT MANY LOCATIONS... PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND A LITTLE MORE IN CENTRAL NY FROM
SYRACUSE TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. SLEET WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE WARM AIR DEEPENS...
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING... BEFORE EDGING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY
PLACES TOWARD 12Z.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z TUE UPDATE... A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE (PL THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH A LTL -FZRA PERHAPS MIXING IN)...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR OCNL IFR VSBY`S.

AFTER 03-05Z...THE STEADIEST PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF...LEAVING
MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES OVERNIGHT. THE ONE PSBL EXCEPTION COULD
BE KAVP...WHERE A BIT OF -RA OR -FZRA COULD RE-DVLP TWDS DAYBREAK.

ON WED...AGN...MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES ARE ANTICIPATED. A LTL
-RA OR -FZRA COULD LINGER EARLY IN THE DAY AT KAVP...AND OCNL SNOW
SHWRS WITH IFR VSBY`S COULD IMPACT KRME FROM TIME TO TIME.

GUSTY S TO SELY WINDS THIS EVE...WILL DIMINISH OUT OF THE SW LATE
TNT...WITH WRLY WINDS BCMG GUSTY AGN FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES ON WED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...AND POSSIBLY KITH KBGM
KELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM









000
FXUS61 KBGM 032318
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
618 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE WARM
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CC PRODUCT FROM THE
KBGM DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING SOME LOWER VALUES OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NORTHERN PA INDICATING SOME MIXING
ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SLEET AT PLACES LIKE ELM. THE NAM HAS DONE
A VERY GOOD JOB INDICATING A STRONG SURGE OF WARM AIR CENTERED
AROUND 800 MB OVERSPREADING NORTHERN PA AND CENTRAL NY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET
FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
RANGING FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WITH ONLY ABOUT 3 HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED
IN MOST PLACES ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE RANGING FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES AT MANY LOCATIONS... PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND A LITTLE MORE IN CENTRAL NY FROM
SYRACUSE TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. SLEET WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE WARM AIR DEEPENS...
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING... BEFORE EDGING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY
PLACES TOWARD 12Z.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z TUE UPDATE... A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE (PL THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH A LTL -FZRA PERHAPS MIXING IN)...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR OCNL IFR VSBY`S.

AFTER 03-05Z...THE STEADIEST PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF...LEAVING
MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES OVERNIGHT. THE ONE PSBL EXCEPTION COULD
BE KAVP...WHERE A BIT OF -RA OR -FZRA COULD RE-DVLP TWDS DAYBREAK.

ON WED...AGN...MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES ARE ANTICIPATED. A LTL
-RA OR -FZRA COULD LINGER EARLY IN THE DAY AT KAVP...AND OCNL SNOW
SHWRS WITH IFR VSBY`S COULD IMPACT KRME FROM TIME TO TIME.

GUSTY S TO SELY WINDS THIS EVE...WILL DIMINISH OUT OF THE SW LATE
TNT...WITH WRLY WINDS BCMG GUSTY AGN FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES ON WED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...AND POSSIBLY KITH KBGM
KELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 032318
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
618 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE WARM
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CC PRODUCT FROM THE
KBGM DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING SOME LOWER VALUES OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NORTHERN PA INDICATING SOME MIXING
ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SLEET AT PLACES LIKE ELM. THE NAM HAS DONE
A VERY GOOD JOB INDICATING A STRONG SURGE OF WARM AIR CENTERED
AROUND 800 MB OVERSPREADING NORTHERN PA AND CENTRAL NY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET
FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
RANGING FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WITH ONLY ABOUT 3 HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED
IN MOST PLACES ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE RANGING FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES AT MANY LOCATIONS... PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND A LITTLE MORE IN CENTRAL NY FROM
SYRACUSE TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. SLEET WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE WARM AIR DEEPENS...
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING... BEFORE EDGING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY
PLACES TOWARD 12Z.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z TUE UPDATE... A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE (PL THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH A LTL -FZRA PERHAPS MIXING IN)...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR OCNL IFR VSBY`S.

AFTER 03-05Z...THE STEADIEST PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF...LEAVING
MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES OVERNIGHT. THE ONE PSBL EXCEPTION COULD
BE KAVP...WHERE A BIT OF -RA OR -FZRA COULD RE-DVLP TWDS DAYBREAK.

ON WED...AGN...MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES ARE ANTICIPATED. A LTL
-RA OR -FZRA COULD LINGER EARLY IN THE DAY AT KAVP...AND OCNL SNOW
SHWRS WITH IFR VSBY`S COULD IMPACT KRME FROM TIME TO TIME.

GUSTY S TO SELY WINDS THIS EVE...WILL DIMINISH OUT OF THE SW LATE
TNT...WITH WRLY WINDS BCMG GUSTY AGN FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES ON WED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...AND POSSIBLY KITH KBGM
KELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 032318
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
618 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE WARM
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CC PRODUCT FROM THE
KBGM DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING SOME LOWER VALUES OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NORTHERN PA INDICATING SOME MIXING
ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SLEET AT PLACES LIKE ELM. THE NAM HAS DONE
A VERY GOOD JOB INDICATING A STRONG SURGE OF WARM AIR CENTERED
AROUND 800 MB OVERSPREADING NORTHERN PA AND CENTRAL NY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET
FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
RANGING FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WITH ONLY ABOUT 3 HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED
IN MOST PLACES ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE RANGING FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES AT MANY LOCATIONS... PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND A LITTLE MORE IN CENTRAL NY FROM
SYRACUSE TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. SLEET WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE WARM AIR DEEPENS...
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING... BEFORE EDGING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY
PLACES TOWARD 12Z.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z TUE UPDATE... A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE (PL THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH A LTL -FZRA PERHAPS MIXING IN)...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR OCNL IFR VSBY`S.

AFTER 03-05Z...THE STEADIEST PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF...LEAVING
MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES OVERNIGHT. THE ONE PSBL EXCEPTION COULD
BE KAVP...WHERE A BIT OF -RA OR -FZRA COULD RE-DVLP TWDS DAYBREAK.

ON WED...AGN...MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES ARE ANTICIPATED. A LTL
-RA OR -FZRA COULD LINGER EARLY IN THE DAY AT KAVP...AND OCNL SNOW
SHWRS WITH IFR VSBY`S COULD IMPACT KRME FROM TIME TO TIME.

GUSTY S TO SELY WINDS THIS EVE...WILL DIMINISH OUT OF THE SW LATE
TNT...WITH WRLY WINDS BCMG GUSTY AGN FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES ON WED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...AND POSSIBLY KITH KBGM
KELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 032318
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
618 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE WARM
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CC PRODUCT FROM THE
KBGM DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING SOME LOWER VALUES OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NORTHERN PA INDICATING SOME MIXING
ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SLEET AT PLACES LIKE ELM. THE NAM HAS DONE
A VERY GOOD JOB INDICATING A STRONG SURGE OF WARM AIR CENTERED
AROUND 800 MB OVERSPREADING NORTHERN PA AND CENTRAL NY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET
FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
RANGING FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WITH ONLY ABOUT 3 HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED
IN MOST PLACES ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE RANGING FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES AT MANY LOCATIONS... PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND A LITTLE MORE IN CENTRAL NY FROM
SYRACUSE TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. SLEET WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE WARM AIR DEEPENS...
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING... BEFORE EDGING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY
PLACES TOWARD 12Z.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z TUE UPDATE... A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE (PL THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH A LTL -FZRA PERHAPS MIXING IN)...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR OCNL IFR VSBY`S.

AFTER 03-05Z...THE STEADIEST PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF...LEAVING
MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES OVERNIGHT. THE ONE PSBL EXCEPTION COULD
BE KAVP...WHERE A BIT OF -RA OR -FZRA COULD RE-DVLP TWDS DAYBREAK.

ON WED...AGN...MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES ARE ANTICIPATED. A LTL
-RA OR -FZRA COULD LINGER EARLY IN THE DAY AT KAVP...AND OCNL SNOW
SHWRS WITH IFR VSBY`S COULD IMPACT KRME FROM TIME TO TIME.

GUSTY S TO SELY WINDS THIS EVE...WILL DIMINISH OUT OF THE SW LATE
TNT...WITH WRLY WINDS BCMG GUSTY AGN FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES ON WED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...AND POSSIBLY KITH KBGM
KELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 032059
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
359 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE WARM
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CC PRODUCT FROM THE
KBGM DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING SOME LOWER VALUES OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NORTHERN PA INDICATING SOME MIXING
ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SLEET AT PLACES LIKE ELM. THE NAM HAS DONE
A VERY GOOD JOB INDICATING A STRONG SURGE OF WARM AIR CENTERED
AROUND 800 MB OVERSPREADING NORTHERN PA AND CENTRAL NY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET
FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
RANGING FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WITH ONLY ABOUT 3 HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED
IN MOST PLACES ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE RANGING FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES AT MANY LOCATIONS... PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND A LITTLE MORE IN CENTRAL NY FROM
SYRACUSE TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. SLEET WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE WARM AIR DEEPENS...
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING... BEFORE EDGING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY
PLACES TOWARD 12Z.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW WHICH WILL START AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z-19Z WILL
QUICKLY LOWER THE FLIGHT CATEGORY BELOW ALT MINS. AFTER 2-4 HOURS
OF SNOWFALL THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SLEET WITH THE CATEGORY RANGING
FROM LOW MVFR TO IFR. JUST BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS THE SLEET MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE PRECIP WILL
END ACROSS THE REGION GENERALLY BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. ONCE THE PRECIP
ENDS LOW MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO CIGS.
BY DAYBREAK PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH END OF TAF TIME.

S/SE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WINDS BECOMING SW OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN WESTERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT AVP AND PROBABLY ITH
BGM ELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 032059
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
359 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE WARM
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CC PRODUCT FROM THE
KBGM DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING SOME LOWER VALUES OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NORTHERN PA INDICATING SOME MIXING
ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SLEET AT PLACES LIKE ELM. THE NAM HAS DONE
A VERY GOOD JOB INDICATING A STRONG SURGE OF WARM AIR CENTERED
AROUND 800 MB OVERSPREADING NORTHERN PA AND CENTRAL NY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET
FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
RANGING FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WITH ONLY ABOUT 3 HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED
IN MOST PLACES ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE RANGING FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES AT MANY LOCATIONS... PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND A LITTLE MORE IN CENTRAL NY FROM
SYRACUSE TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. SLEET WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE WARM AIR DEEPENS...
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING... BEFORE EDGING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY
PLACES TOWARD 12Z.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW WHICH WILL START AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z-19Z WILL
QUICKLY LOWER THE FLIGHT CATEGORY BELOW ALT MINS. AFTER 2-4 HOURS
OF SNOWFALL THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SLEET WITH THE CATEGORY RANGING
FROM LOW MVFR TO IFR. JUST BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS THE SLEET MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE PRECIP WILL
END ACROSS THE REGION GENERALLY BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. ONCE THE PRECIP
ENDS LOW MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO CIGS.
BY DAYBREAK PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH END OF TAF TIME.

S/SE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WINDS BECOMING SW OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN WESTERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT AVP AND PROBABLY ITH
BGM ELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 032059
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
359 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE WARM
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CC PRODUCT FROM THE
KBGM DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING SOME LOWER VALUES OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NORTHERN PA INDICATING SOME MIXING
ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SLEET AT PLACES LIKE ELM. THE NAM HAS DONE
A VERY GOOD JOB INDICATING A STRONG SURGE OF WARM AIR CENTERED
AROUND 800 MB OVERSPREADING NORTHERN PA AND CENTRAL NY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET
FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
RANGING FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WITH ONLY ABOUT 3 HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED
IN MOST PLACES ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE RANGING FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES AT MANY LOCATIONS... PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND A LITTLE MORE IN CENTRAL NY FROM
SYRACUSE TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. SLEET WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE WARM AIR DEEPENS...
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING... BEFORE EDGING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY
PLACES TOWARD 12Z.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW WHICH WILL START AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z-19Z WILL
QUICKLY LOWER THE FLIGHT CATEGORY BELOW ALT MINS. AFTER 2-4 HOURS
OF SNOWFALL THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SLEET WITH THE CATEGORY RANGING
FROM LOW MVFR TO IFR. JUST BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS THE SLEET MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE PRECIP WILL
END ACROSS THE REGION GENERALLY BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. ONCE THE PRECIP
ENDS LOW MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO CIGS.
BY DAYBREAK PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH END OF TAF TIME.

S/SE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WINDS BECOMING SW OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN WESTERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT AVP AND PROBABLY ITH
BGM ELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 032059
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
359 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE WARM
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CC PRODUCT FROM THE
KBGM DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING SOME LOWER VALUES OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NORTHERN PA INDICATING SOME MIXING
ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SLEET AT PLACES LIKE ELM. THE NAM HAS DONE
A VERY GOOD JOB INDICATING A STRONG SURGE OF WARM AIR CENTERED
AROUND 800 MB OVERSPREADING NORTHERN PA AND CENTRAL NY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET
FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
RANGING FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WITH ONLY ABOUT 3 HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED
IN MOST PLACES ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE RANGING FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES AT MANY LOCATIONS... PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND A LITTLE MORE IN CENTRAL NY FROM
SYRACUSE TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. SLEET WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE WARM AIR DEEPENS...
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING... BEFORE EDGING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY
PLACES TOWARD 12Z.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW WHICH WILL START AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z-19Z WILL
QUICKLY LOWER THE FLIGHT CATEGORY BELOW ALT MINS. AFTER 2-4 HOURS
OF SNOWFALL THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SLEET WITH THE CATEGORY RANGING
FROM LOW MVFR TO IFR. JUST BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS THE SLEET MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE PRECIP WILL
END ACROSS THE REGION GENERALLY BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. ONCE THE PRECIP
ENDS LOW MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO CIGS.
BY DAYBREAK PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH END OF TAF TIME.

S/SE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WINDS BECOMING SW OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN WESTERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT AVP AND PROBABLY ITH
BGM ELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 032043
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
343 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE WARM
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CC PRODUCT FROM THE
KBGM DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING SOME LOWER VALUES OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NORTHERN PA INDICATING SOME MIXING
ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SLEET AT PLACES LIKE ELM. THE NAM HAS DONE
A VERY GOOD JOB INDICATING A STRONG SURGE OF WARM AIR CENTERED
AROUND 800 MB OVERSPREADING NORTHERN PA AND CENTRAL NY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET
FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
RANGING FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WITH ONLY ABOUT 3 HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED
IN MOST PLACES ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE RANGING FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES AT MANY LOCATIONS... PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND A LITTLE MORE IN CENTRAL NY FROM
SYRACUSE TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. SLEET WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE WARM AIR DEEPENS...
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING... BEFORE EDGING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY
PLACES TOWARD 12Z.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW WHICH WILL START AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z-19Z WILL
QUICKLY LOWER THE FLIGHT CATEGORY BELOW ALT MINS. AFTER 2-4 HOURS
OF SNOWFALL THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SLEET WITH THE CATEGORY RANGING
FROM LOW MVFR TO IFR. JUST BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS THE SLEET MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE PRECIP WILL
END ACROSS THE REGION GENERALLY BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. ONCE THE PRECIP
ENDS LOW MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO CIGS.
BY DAYBREAK PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH END OF TAF TIME.

S/SE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WINDS BECOMING SW OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN WESTERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT AVP AND PROBABLY ITH
BGM ELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 032043
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
343 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE WARM
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CC PRODUCT FROM THE
KBGM DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING SOME LOWER VALUES OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NORTHERN PA INDICATING SOME MIXING
ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SLEET AT PLACES LIKE ELM. THE NAM HAS DONE
A VERY GOOD JOB INDICATING A STRONG SURGE OF WARM AIR CENTERED
AROUND 800 MB OVERSPREADING NORTHERN PA AND CENTRAL NY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET
FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
RANGING FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WITH ONLY ABOUT 3 HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED
IN MOST PLACES ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE RANGING FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES AT MANY LOCATIONS... PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND A LITTLE MORE IN CENTRAL NY FROM
SYRACUSE TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. SLEET WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE WARM AIR DEEPENS...
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING... BEFORE EDGING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY
PLACES TOWARD 12Z.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW WHICH WILL START AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z-19Z WILL
QUICKLY LOWER THE FLIGHT CATEGORY BELOW ALT MINS. AFTER 2-4 HOURS
OF SNOWFALL THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SLEET WITH THE CATEGORY RANGING
FROM LOW MVFR TO IFR. JUST BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS THE SLEET MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE PRECIP WILL
END ACROSS THE REGION GENERALLY BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. ONCE THE PRECIP
ENDS LOW MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO CIGS.
BY DAYBREAK PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH END OF TAF TIME.

S/SE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WINDS BECOMING SW OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN WESTERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT AVP AND PROBABLY ITH
BGM ELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 031750
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1250 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY...A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY AN ICY WINTRY MIX TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY BUSY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 11 AM... CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN VERY GOOD
SHAPE. LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW IS JUST A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING. LEADING EDGE OF THE
SNOW WILL REACH THE CORNING / ELMIRA AREA BY AROUND NOON AND
SHOULD START AT SCRANTON AND BINGHAMTON BY AROUND 1 PM... REACHING
THE WESTERN CATSKILLS BY 2 PM. LATEST NAM CONTINUES WITH THE IDEA
OF EXTREMELY RAPID WARMING AROUND 800 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A RAPID CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET IN MANY AREAS BY 5 OR 6 PM.
STILL EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO PICK UP A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW IN ABOUT 3 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN SOME SLEET AND
EVENTUALLY SOME FREEZING RAIN AROUND THE TIME THAT THE
PRECIPITATION IS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY SEEMS
TO HAVE THIS HANDLED VERY WELL.


630 AM UPDATE...
OF COURSE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE INCOMING SNOW-TO-MIX SYSTEM /MORE ON
THAT BELOW/...BUT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM OUR TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING NEEDED SOME ADDITIONAL QC DUE TO DIFFERENCES WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS STRONGEST FROM CLEAR SKY...AND WHERE THE
LAST OF THE LAKE CLOUDS KEPT OTHER LOCALES SLIGHTLY MILDER. SOME
OF THE COLDER 6AM TEMPERATURES INCLUDE 7 BELOW IN ROME...0 IN
SIDNEY AND NORWICH...1 ABOVE IN CORTLAND AND SYRACUSE...AND 2 IN
ELMIRA. MEANWHILE AVOCA IS A RELATIVELY BALMY 14...AND PENN YAN
HAS A LITTLE WIND STIRRING WHICH IS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE THERE
AT 10.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW-TO-ICY-MIX STORM IS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER...FOR
STEUBEN-YATES-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CHEMUNG- TIOGA-BRADFORD COUNTIES
THE START TIME WAS MOVED UP TO 1PM. REMAINDER OF ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 3PM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PUMPING CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN NY THROUGH CENTRAL PA...AS INCOMING SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH IS SITTING DIRECTLY OVER US BUT WILL SLIDE
OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH...INCLUDING VERY IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON SHIELD OF SNOW
BREAKING OUT BETWEEN 1PM-3PM FOR MUCH OF TWIN TIERS TO FINGER
LAKES...AND 3PM-5PM POINTS FARTHER EAST AND NORTH...THUS THE
EARLIER ADJUSTMENT MADE TO START TIME TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
ADVISORY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS TELL THE STORY...OF A PERIOD OF SNOW /SHORTEST
DURATION SOUTH...LONGEST DURATION IN CENTRAL NY/ THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH GOOD LIFT
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THIS SHOULD BE A
QUITE ABRUPT BURST OF SNOW ONCE IT GETS GOING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT WILL MATERIALIZE WITHIN JUST
ABOUT 3 OR SO HOURS OF THE SNOW STARTING...WHICH WILL YIELD SLEET.
THE BELOW FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE DEEP AND
COLD...WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NEXT TRANSITION....FROM
SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GRADUAL /OR MAYBE
EVEN BACK-AND-FORTH A BIT/ THAN WE ARE USED TO FOR THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM. ONCE IT IS PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN...WE WILL ALSO LOSE
MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SO AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

BEFORE THE SWITCH TO ICY MIX...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A
DENSER 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM TWIN TIERS- SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWARD...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN CENTRAL NY- UPPER SUSQUEHANNA
REGION. THEN FOR THE ICE THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS TWIN TIERS TO NORTHEAST PA-
SULLIVAN COUNTY NY.

ONE ADDITIONAL THING TO NOTE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH RANGE. SNOW FOLLOWED BY
SLEET-FREEZING RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS IS A BAD COMBINATION. THE
WEIGHT OF THE DENSE PRECIPITATION PLUS WINDS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE DAMAGE SUCH AS BROKEN BRANCHES.

LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SHOULD START TO GET ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE DAWN
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TWIN TIERS...FINGER LAKES...AND WYOMING VALLEY.
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SOME AREAS EVEN GETTING UPPER 30S-NEAR 40. COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HOWEVER...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE AFTERNOON-
EVENING. AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY THOUGH WILL BE NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRONT DROPS SE TO BE FROM NYC TO CRW WED NGT. SNOW WILL MOVE NE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BE ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW WILL COME. NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN CENT NY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BUT CAA AND A NW FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROVIDING LIFT. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH LATE THU KICKING
THE COLD FRONT AND STEADY SNOW OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT AMOUNTS. THU NGT THE LES WILL
WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW
DROPPING THE WINDS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST AND
THE LES WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE TUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW WHICH WILL START AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z-19Z WILL
QUICKLY LOWER THE FLIGHT CATEGORY BELOW ALT MINS. AFTER 2-4 HOURS
OF SNOWFALL THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SLEET WITH THE CATEGORY RANGING
FROM LOW MVFR TO IFR. JUST BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS THE SLEET MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE PRECIP WILL
END ACROSS THE REGION GENERALLY BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. ONCE THE PRECIP
ENDS LOW MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO CIGS.
BY DAYBREAK PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH END OF TAF TIME.

S/SE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WINDS BECOMING SW OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN WESTERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT AVP AND PROBABLY ITH
BGM ELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-
     040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
     016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ015-
     022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 031750
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1250 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY...A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY AN ICY WINTRY MIX TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY BUSY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 11 AM... CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN VERY GOOD
SHAPE. LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW IS JUST A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING. LEADING EDGE OF THE
SNOW WILL REACH THE CORNING / ELMIRA AREA BY AROUND NOON AND
SHOULD START AT SCRANTON AND BINGHAMTON BY AROUND 1 PM... REACHING
THE WESTERN CATSKILLS BY 2 PM. LATEST NAM CONTINUES WITH THE IDEA
OF EXTREMELY RAPID WARMING AROUND 800 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A RAPID CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET IN MANY AREAS BY 5 OR 6 PM.
STILL EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO PICK UP A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW IN ABOUT 3 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN SOME SLEET AND
EVENTUALLY SOME FREEZING RAIN AROUND THE TIME THAT THE
PRECIPITATION IS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY SEEMS
TO HAVE THIS HANDLED VERY WELL.


630 AM UPDATE...
OF COURSE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE INCOMING SNOW-TO-MIX SYSTEM /MORE ON
THAT BELOW/...BUT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM OUR TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING NEEDED SOME ADDITIONAL QC DUE TO DIFFERENCES WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS STRONGEST FROM CLEAR SKY...AND WHERE THE
LAST OF THE LAKE CLOUDS KEPT OTHER LOCALES SLIGHTLY MILDER. SOME
OF THE COLDER 6AM TEMPERATURES INCLUDE 7 BELOW IN ROME...0 IN
SIDNEY AND NORWICH...1 ABOVE IN CORTLAND AND SYRACUSE...AND 2 IN
ELMIRA. MEANWHILE AVOCA IS A RELATIVELY BALMY 14...AND PENN YAN
HAS A LITTLE WIND STIRRING WHICH IS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE THERE
AT 10.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW-TO-ICY-MIX STORM IS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER...FOR
STEUBEN-YATES-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CHEMUNG- TIOGA-BRADFORD COUNTIES
THE START TIME WAS MOVED UP TO 1PM. REMAINDER OF ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 3PM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PUMPING CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN NY THROUGH CENTRAL PA...AS INCOMING SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH IS SITTING DIRECTLY OVER US BUT WILL SLIDE
OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH...INCLUDING VERY IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON SHIELD OF SNOW
BREAKING OUT BETWEEN 1PM-3PM FOR MUCH OF TWIN TIERS TO FINGER
LAKES...AND 3PM-5PM POINTS FARTHER EAST AND NORTH...THUS THE
EARLIER ADJUSTMENT MADE TO START TIME TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
ADVISORY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS TELL THE STORY...OF A PERIOD OF SNOW /SHORTEST
DURATION SOUTH...LONGEST DURATION IN CENTRAL NY/ THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH GOOD LIFT
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THIS SHOULD BE A
QUITE ABRUPT BURST OF SNOW ONCE IT GETS GOING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT WILL MATERIALIZE WITHIN JUST
ABOUT 3 OR SO HOURS OF THE SNOW STARTING...WHICH WILL YIELD SLEET.
THE BELOW FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE DEEP AND
COLD...WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NEXT TRANSITION....FROM
SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GRADUAL /OR MAYBE
EVEN BACK-AND-FORTH A BIT/ THAN WE ARE USED TO FOR THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM. ONCE IT IS PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN...WE WILL ALSO LOSE
MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SO AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

BEFORE THE SWITCH TO ICY MIX...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A
DENSER 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM TWIN TIERS- SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWARD...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN CENTRAL NY- UPPER SUSQUEHANNA
REGION. THEN FOR THE ICE THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS TWIN TIERS TO NORTHEAST PA-
SULLIVAN COUNTY NY.

ONE ADDITIONAL THING TO NOTE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH RANGE. SNOW FOLLOWED BY
SLEET-FREEZING RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS IS A BAD COMBINATION. THE
WEIGHT OF THE DENSE PRECIPITATION PLUS WINDS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE DAMAGE SUCH AS BROKEN BRANCHES.

LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SHOULD START TO GET ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE DAWN
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TWIN TIERS...FINGER LAKES...AND WYOMING VALLEY.
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SOME AREAS EVEN GETTING UPPER 30S-NEAR 40. COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HOWEVER...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE AFTERNOON-
EVENING. AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY THOUGH WILL BE NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRONT DROPS SE TO BE FROM NYC TO CRW WED NGT. SNOW WILL MOVE NE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BE ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW WILL COME. NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN CENT NY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BUT CAA AND A NW FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROVIDING LIFT. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH LATE THU KICKING
THE COLD FRONT AND STEADY SNOW OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT AMOUNTS. THU NGT THE LES WILL
WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW
DROPPING THE WINDS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST AND
THE LES WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE TUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW WHICH WILL START AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z-19Z WILL
QUICKLY LOWER THE FLIGHT CATEGORY BELOW ALT MINS. AFTER 2-4 HOURS
OF SNOWFALL THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SLEET WITH THE CATEGORY RANGING
FROM LOW MVFR TO IFR. JUST BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS THE SLEET MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE PRECIP WILL
END ACROSS THE REGION GENERALLY BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. ONCE THE PRECIP
ENDS LOW MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO CIGS.
BY DAYBREAK PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH END OF TAF TIME.

S/SE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WINDS BECOMING SW OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN WESTERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT AVP AND PROBABLY ITH
BGM ELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-
     040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
     016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ015-
     022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 031750
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1250 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY...A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY AN ICY WINTRY MIX TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY BUSY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 11 AM... CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN VERY GOOD
SHAPE. LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW IS JUST A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING. LEADING EDGE OF THE
SNOW WILL REACH THE CORNING / ELMIRA AREA BY AROUND NOON AND
SHOULD START AT SCRANTON AND BINGHAMTON BY AROUND 1 PM... REACHING
THE WESTERN CATSKILLS BY 2 PM. LATEST NAM CONTINUES WITH THE IDEA
OF EXTREMELY RAPID WARMING AROUND 800 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A RAPID CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET IN MANY AREAS BY 5 OR 6 PM.
STILL EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO PICK UP A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW IN ABOUT 3 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN SOME SLEET AND
EVENTUALLY SOME FREEZING RAIN AROUND THE TIME THAT THE
PRECIPITATION IS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY SEEMS
TO HAVE THIS HANDLED VERY WELL.


630 AM UPDATE...
OF COURSE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE INCOMING SNOW-TO-MIX SYSTEM /MORE ON
THAT BELOW/...BUT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM OUR TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING NEEDED SOME ADDITIONAL QC DUE TO DIFFERENCES WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS STRONGEST FROM CLEAR SKY...AND WHERE THE
LAST OF THE LAKE CLOUDS KEPT OTHER LOCALES SLIGHTLY MILDER. SOME
OF THE COLDER 6AM TEMPERATURES INCLUDE 7 BELOW IN ROME...0 IN
SIDNEY AND NORWICH...1 ABOVE IN CORTLAND AND SYRACUSE...AND 2 IN
ELMIRA. MEANWHILE AVOCA IS A RELATIVELY BALMY 14...AND PENN YAN
HAS A LITTLE WIND STIRRING WHICH IS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE THERE
AT 10.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW-TO-ICY-MIX STORM IS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER...FOR
STEUBEN-YATES-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CHEMUNG- TIOGA-BRADFORD COUNTIES
THE START TIME WAS MOVED UP TO 1PM. REMAINDER OF ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 3PM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PUMPING CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN NY THROUGH CENTRAL PA...AS INCOMING SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH IS SITTING DIRECTLY OVER US BUT WILL SLIDE
OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH...INCLUDING VERY IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON SHIELD OF SNOW
BREAKING OUT BETWEEN 1PM-3PM FOR MUCH OF TWIN TIERS TO FINGER
LAKES...AND 3PM-5PM POINTS FARTHER EAST AND NORTH...THUS THE
EARLIER ADJUSTMENT MADE TO START TIME TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
ADVISORY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS TELL THE STORY...OF A PERIOD OF SNOW /SHORTEST
DURATION SOUTH...LONGEST DURATION IN CENTRAL NY/ THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH GOOD LIFT
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THIS SHOULD BE A
QUITE ABRUPT BURST OF SNOW ONCE IT GETS GOING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT WILL MATERIALIZE WITHIN JUST
ABOUT 3 OR SO HOURS OF THE SNOW STARTING...WHICH WILL YIELD SLEET.
THE BELOW FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE DEEP AND
COLD...WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NEXT TRANSITION....FROM
SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GRADUAL /OR MAYBE
EVEN BACK-AND-FORTH A BIT/ THAN WE ARE USED TO FOR THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM. ONCE IT IS PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN...WE WILL ALSO LOSE
MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SO AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

BEFORE THE SWITCH TO ICY MIX...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A
DENSER 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM TWIN TIERS- SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWARD...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN CENTRAL NY- UPPER SUSQUEHANNA
REGION. THEN FOR THE ICE THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS TWIN TIERS TO NORTHEAST PA-
SULLIVAN COUNTY NY.

ONE ADDITIONAL THING TO NOTE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH RANGE. SNOW FOLLOWED BY
SLEET-FREEZING RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS IS A BAD COMBINATION. THE
WEIGHT OF THE DENSE PRECIPITATION PLUS WINDS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE DAMAGE SUCH AS BROKEN BRANCHES.

LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SHOULD START TO GET ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE DAWN
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TWIN TIERS...FINGER LAKES...AND WYOMING VALLEY.
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SOME AREAS EVEN GETTING UPPER 30S-NEAR 40. COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HOWEVER...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE AFTERNOON-
EVENING. AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY THOUGH WILL BE NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRONT DROPS SE TO BE FROM NYC TO CRW WED NGT. SNOW WILL MOVE NE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BE ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW WILL COME. NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN CENT NY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BUT CAA AND A NW FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROVIDING LIFT. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH LATE THU KICKING
THE COLD FRONT AND STEADY SNOW OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT AMOUNTS. THU NGT THE LES WILL
WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW
DROPPING THE WINDS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST AND
THE LES WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE TUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW WHICH WILL START AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z-19Z WILL
QUICKLY LOWER THE FLIGHT CATEGORY BELOW ALT MINS. AFTER 2-4 HOURS
OF SNOWFALL THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SLEET WITH THE CATEGORY RANGING
FROM LOW MVFR TO IFR. JUST BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS THE SLEET MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE PRECIP WILL
END ACROSS THE REGION GENERALLY BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. ONCE THE PRECIP
ENDS LOW MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO CIGS.
BY DAYBREAK PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH END OF TAF TIME.

S/SE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WINDS BECOMING SW OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN WESTERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT AVP AND PROBABLY ITH
BGM ELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-
     040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
     016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ015-
     022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 031750
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1250 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY...A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY AN ICY WINTRY MIX TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY BUSY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 11 AM... CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN VERY GOOD
SHAPE. LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW IS JUST A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING. LEADING EDGE OF THE
SNOW WILL REACH THE CORNING / ELMIRA AREA BY AROUND NOON AND
SHOULD START AT SCRANTON AND BINGHAMTON BY AROUND 1 PM... REACHING
THE WESTERN CATSKILLS BY 2 PM. LATEST NAM CONTINUES WITH THE IDEA
OF EXTREMELY RAPID WARMING AROUND 800 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A RAPID CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET IN MANY AREAS BY 5 OR 6 PM.
STILL EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO PICK UP A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW IN ABOUT 3 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN SOME SLEET AND
EVENTUALLY SOME FREEZING RAIN AROUND THE TIME THAT THE
PRECIPITATION IS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY SEEMS
TO HAVE THIS HANDLED VERY WELL.


630 AM UPDATE...
OF COURSE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE INCOMING SNOW-TO-MIX SYSTEM /MORE ON
THAT BELOW/...BUT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM OUR TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING NEEDED SOME ADDITIONAL QC DUE TO DIFFERENCES WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS STRONGEST FROM CLEAR SKY...AND WHERE THE
LAST OF THE LAKE CLOUDS KEPT OTHER LOCALES SLIGHTLY MILDER. SOME
OF THE COLDER 6AM TEMPERATURES INCLUDE 7 BELOW IN ROME...0 IN
SIDNEY AND NORWICH...1 ABOVE IN CORTLAND AND SYRACUSE...AND 2 IN
ELMIRA. MEANWHILE AVOCA IS A RELATIVELY BALMY 14...AND PENN YAN
HAS A LITTLE WIND STIRRING WHICH IS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE THERE
AT 10.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW-TO-ICY-MIX STORM IS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER...FOR
STEUBEN-YATES-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CHEMUNG- TIOGA-BRADFORD COUNTIES
THE START TIME WAS MOVED UP TO 1PM. REMAINDER OF ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 3PM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PUMPING CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN NY THROUGH CENTRAL PA...AS INCOMING SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH IS SITTING DIRECTLY OVER US BUT WILL SLIDE
OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH...INCLUDING VERY IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON SHIELD OF SNOW
BREAKING OUT BETWEEN 1PM-3PM FOR MUCH OF TWIN TIERS TO FINGER
LAKES...AND 3PM-5PM POINTS FARTHER EAST AND NORTH...THUS THE
EARLIER ADJUSTMENT MADE TO START TIME TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
ADVISORY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS TELL THE STORY...OF A PERIOD OF SNOW /SHORTEST
DURATION SOUTH...LONGEST DURATION IN CENTRAL NY/ THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH GOOD LIFT
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THIS SHOULD BE A
QUITE ABRUPT BURST OF SNOW ONCE IT GETS GOING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT WILL MATERIALIZE WITHIN JUST
ABOUT 3 OR SO HOURS OF THE SNOW STARTING...WHICH WILL YIELD SLEET.
THE BELOW FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE DEEP AND
COLD...WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NEXT TRANSITION....FROM
SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GRADUAL /OR MAYBE
EVEN BACK-AND-FORTH A BIT/ THAN WE ARE USED TO FOR THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM. ONCE IT IS PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN...WE WILL ALSO LOSE
MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SO AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

BEFORE THE SWITCH TO ICY MIX...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A
DENSER 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM TWIN TIERS- SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWARD...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN CENTRAL NY- UPPER SUSQUEHANNA
REGION. THEN FOR THE ICE THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS TWIN TIERS TO NORTHEAST PA-
SULLIVAN COUNTY NY.

ONE ADDITIONAL THING TO NOTE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH RANGE. SNOW FOLLOWED BY
SLEET-FREEZING RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS IS A BAD COMBINATION. THE
WEIGHT OF THE DENSE PRECIPITATION PLUS WINDS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE DAMAGE SUCH AS BROKEN BRANCHES.

LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SHOULD START TO GET ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE DAWN
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TWIN TIERS...FINGER LAKES...AND WYOMING VALLEY.
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SOME AREAS EVEN GETTING UPPER 30S-NEAR 40. COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HOWEVER...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE AFTERNOON-
EVENING. AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY THOUGH WILL BE NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRONT DROPS SE TO BE FROM NYC TO CRW WED NGT. SNOW WILL MOVE NE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BE ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW WILL COME. NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN CENT NY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BUT CAA AND A NW FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROVIDING LIFT. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH LATE THU KICKING
THE COLD FRONT AND STEADY SNOW OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT AMOUNTS. THU NGT THE LES WILL
WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW
DROPPING THE WINDS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST AND
THE LES WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE TUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW WHICH WILL START AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z-19Z WILL
QUICKLY LOWER THE FLIGHT CATEGORY BELOW ALT MINS. AFTER 2-4 HOURS
OF SNOWFALL THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SLEET WITH THE CATEGORY RANGING
FROM LOW MVFR TO IFR. JUST BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS THE SLEET MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE PRECIP WILL
END ACROSS THE REGION GENERALLY BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. ONCE THE PRECIP
ENDS LOW MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO CIGS.
BY DAYBREAK PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH END OF TAF TIME.

S/SE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WINDS BECOMING SW OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN WESTERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT AVP AND PROBABLY ITH
BGM ELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-
     040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
     016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ015-
     022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 031631
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1131 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY...A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY AN ICY WINTRY MIX TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY BUSY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 11 AM... CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN VERY GOOD
SHAPE. LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW IS JUST A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING. LEADING EDGE OF THE
SNOW WILL REACH THE CORNING / ELMIRA AREA BY AROUND NOON AND
SHOULD START AT SCRANTON AND BINGHAMTON BY AROUND 1 PM... REACHING
THE WESTERN CATSKILLS BY 2 PM. LATEST NAM CONTINUES WITH THE IDEA
OF EXTREMELY RAPID WARMING AROUND 800 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A RAPID CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET IN MANY AREAS BY 5 OR 6 PM.
STILL EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO PICK UP A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW IN ABOUT 3 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN SOME SLEET AND
EVENTUALLY SOME FREEZING RAIN AROUND THE TIME THAT THE
PRECIPITATION IS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY SEEMS
TO HAVE THIS HANDLED VERY WELL.


630 AM UPDATE...
OF COURSE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE INCOMING SNOW-TO-MIX SYSTEM /MORE ON
THAT BELOW/...BUT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM OUR TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING NEEDED SOME ADDITIONAL QC DUE TO DIFFERENCES WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS STRONGEST FROM CLEAR SKY...AND WHERE THE
LAST OF THE LAKE CLOUDS KEPT OTHER LOCALES SLIGHTLY MILDER. SOME
OF THE COLDER 6AM TEMPERATURES INCLUDE 7 BELOW IN ROME...0 IN
SIDNEY AND NORWICH...1 ABOVE IN CORTLAND AND SYRACUSE...AND 2 IN
ELMIRA. MEANWHILE AVOCA IS A RELATIVELY BALMY 14...AND PENN YAN
HAS A LITTLE WIND STIRRING WHICH IS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE THERE
AT 10.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW-TO-ICY-MIX STORM IS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER...FOR
STEUBEN-YATES-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CHEMUNG- TIOGA-BRADFORD COUNTIES
THE START TIME WAS MOVED UP TO 1PM. REMAINDER OF ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 3PM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PUMPING CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN NY THROUGH CENTRAL PA...AS INCOMING SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH IS SITTING DIRECTLY OVER US BUT WILL SLIDE
OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH...INCLUDING VERY IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON SHIELD OF SNOW
BREAKING OUT BETWEEN 1PM-3PM FOR MUCH OF TWIN TIERS TO FINGER
LAKES...AND 3PM-5PM POINTS FARTHER EAST AND NORTH...THUS THE
EARLIER ADJUSTMENT MADE TO START TIME TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
ADVISORY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS TELL THE STORY...OF A PERIOD OF SNOW /SHORTEST
DURATION SOUTH...LONGEST DURATION IN CENTRAL NY/ THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH GOOD LIFT
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THIS SHOULD BE A
QUITE ABRUPT BURST OF SNOW ONCE IT GETS GOING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT WILL MATERIALIZE WITHIN JUST
ABOUT 3 OR SO HOURS OF THE SNOW STARTING...WHICH WILL YIELD SLEET.
THE BELOW FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE DEEP AND
COLD...WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NEXT TRANSITION....FROM
SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GRADUAL /OR MAYBE
EVEN BACK-AND-FORTH A BIT/ THAN WE ARE USED TO FOR THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM. ONCE IT IS PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN...WE WILL ALSO LOSE
MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SO AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

BEFORE THE SWITCH TO ICY MIX...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A
DENSER 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM TWIN TIERS- SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWARD...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN CENTRAL NY- UPPER SUSQUEHANNA
REGION. THEN FOR THE ICE THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS TWIN TIERS TO NORTHEAST PA-
SULLIVAN COUNTY NY.

ONE ADDITIONAL THING TO NOTE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH RANGE. SNOW FOLLOWED BY
SLEET-FREEZING RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS IS A BAD COMBINATION. THE
WEIGHT OF THE DENSE PRECIPITATION PLUS WINDS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE DAMAGE SUCH AS BROKEN BRANCHES.

LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SHOULD START TO GET ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE DAWN
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TWIN TIERS...FINGER LAKES...AND WYOMING VALLEY.
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SOME AREAS EVEN GETTING UPPER 30S-NEAR 40. COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HOWEVER...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE AFTERNOON-
EVENING. AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY THOUGH WILL BE NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRONT DROPS SE TO BE FROM NYC TO CRW WED NGT. SNOW WILL MOVE NE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BE ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW WILL COME. NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN CENT NY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BUT CAA AND A NW FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROVIDING LIFT. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH LATE THU KICKING
THE COLD FRONT AND STEADY SNOW OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT AMOUNTS. THU NGT THE LES WILL
WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW
DROPPING THE WINDS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST AND
THE LES WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE TUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...

VFR TO START WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN ATTM. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL AT LEAST 16Z.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.
AFTER 6Z TONIGHT MIXED PRECIP IS VERY LIGHT. POSSIBLE SOME CIG
IMPROVEMENT WITH THE FROPA.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING
THEN SOUTH AT 10 KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT BGM SYR ITH. LATE TONIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO SW AND
W AT 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED...MOSTLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS.

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT AVP AND PROBABLY ITH
BGM ELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ015-
     022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 031631
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1131 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY...A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY AN ICY WINTRY MIX TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY BUSY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 11 AM... CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN VERY GOOD
SHAPE. LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW IS JUST A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING. LEADING EDGE OF THE
SNOW WILL REACH THE CORNING / ELMIRA AREA BY AROUND NOON AND
SHOULD START AT SCRANTON AND BINGHAMTON BY AROUND 1 PM... REACHING
THE WESTERN CATSKILLS BY 2 PM. LATEST NAM CONTINUES WITH THE IDEA
OF EXTREMELY RAPID WARMING AROUND 800 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A RAPID CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET IN MANY AREAS BY 5 OR 6 PM.
STILL EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO PICK UP A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW IN ABOUT 3 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN SOME SLEET AND
EVENTUALLY SOME FREEZING RAIN AROUND THE TIME THAT THE
PRECIPITATION IS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY SEEMS
TO HAVE THIS HANDLED VERY WELL.


630 AM UPDATE...
OF COURSE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE INCOMING SNOW-TO-MIX SYSTEM /MORE ON
THAT BELOW/...BUT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM OUR TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING NEEDED SOME ADDITIONAL QC DUE TO DIFFERENCES WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS STRONGEST FROM CLEAR SKY...AND WHERE THE
LAST OF THE LAKE CLOUDS KEPT OTHER LOCALES SLIGHTLY MILDER. SOME
OF THE COLDER 6AM TEMPERATURES INCLUDE 7 BELOW IN ROME...0 IN
SIDNEY AND NORWICH...1 ABOVE IN CORTLAND AND SYRACUSE...AND 2 IN
ELMIRA. MEANWHILE AVOCA IS A RELATIVELY BALMY 14...AND PENN YAN
HAS A LITTLE WIND STIRRING WHICH IS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE THERE
AT 10.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW-TO-ICY-MIX STORM IS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER...FOR
STEUBEN-YATES-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CHEMUNG- TIOGA-BRADFORD COUNTIES
THE START TIME WAS MOVED UP TO 1PM. REMAINDER OF ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 3PM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PUMPING CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN NY THROUGH CENTRAL PA...AS INCOMING SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH IS SITTING DIRECTLY OVER US BUT WILL SLIDE
OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH...INCLUDING VERY IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON SHIELD OF SNOW
BREAKING OUT BETWEEN 1PM-3PM FOR MUCH OF TWIN TIERS TO FINGER
LAKES...AND 3PM-5PM POINTS FARTHER EAST AND NORTH...THUS THE
EARLIER ADJUSTMENT MADE TO START TIME TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
ADVISORY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS TELL THE STORY...OF A PERIOD OF SNOW /SHORTEST
DURATION SOUTH...LONGEST DURATION IN CENTRAL NY/ THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH GOOD LIFT
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THIS SHOULD BE A
QUITE ABRUPT BURST OF SNOW ONCE IT GETS GOING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT WILL MATERIALIZE WITHIN JUST
ABOUT 3 OR SO HOURS OF THE SNOW STARTING...WHICH WILL YIELD SLEET.
THE BELOW FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE DEEP AND
COLD...WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NEXT TRANSITION....FROM
SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GRADUAL /OR MAYBE
EVEN BACK-AND-FORTH A BIT/ THAN WE ARE USED TO FOR THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM. ONCE IT IS PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN...WE WILL ALSO LOSE
MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SO AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

BEFORE THE SWITCH TO ICY MIX...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A
DENSER 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM TWIN TIERS- SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWARD...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN CENTRAL NY- UPPER SUSQUEHANNA
REGION. THEN FOR THE ICE THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS TWIN TIERS TO NORTHEAST PA-
SULLIVAN COUNTY NY.

ONE ADDITIONAL THING TO NOTE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH RANGE. SNOW FOLLOWED BY
SLEET-FREEZING RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS IS A BAD COMBINATION. THE
WEIGHT OF THE DENSE PRECIPITATION PLUS WINDS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE DAMAGE SUCH AS BROKEN BRANCHES.

LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SHOULD START TO GET ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE DAWN
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TWIN TIERS...FINGER LAKES...AND WYOMING VALLEY.
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SOME AREAS EVEN GETTING UPPER 30S-NEAR 40. COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HOWEVER...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE AFTERNOON-
EVENING. AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY THOUGH WILL BE NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRONT DROPS SE TO BE FROM NYC TO CRW WED NGT. SNOW WILL MOVE NE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BE ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW WILL COME. NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN CENT NY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BUT CAA AND A NW FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROVIDING LIFT. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH LATE THU KICKING
THE COLD FRONT AND STEADY SNOW OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT AMOUNTS. THU NGT THE LES WILL
WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW
DROPPING THE WINDS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST AND
THE LES WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE TUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...

VFR TO START WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN ATTM. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL AT LEAST 16Z.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.
AFTER 6Z TONIGHT MIXED PRECIP IS VERY LIGHT. POSSIBLE SOME CIG
IMPROVEMENT WITH THE FROPA.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING
THEN SOUTH AT 10 KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT BGM SYR ITH. LATE TONIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO SW AND
W AT 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED...MOSTLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS.

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT AVP AND PROBABLY ITH
BGM ELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ015-
     022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 031604
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1104 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY...A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY AN ICY WINTRY MIX TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY BUSY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 11 AM... CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN VERY GOOD
SHAPE. LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW IS JUST A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING. LEADING EDGE OF THE
SNOW WILL REACH THE CORNING / ELMIRA AREA BY AROUND NOON AND
SHOULD START AT SCRANTON AND BINGHAMTON BY AROUND 1 PM... REACHING
THE WESTERN CATSKILLS BY 2 PM. LATEST NAM CONTINUES WITH THE IDEA
OF EXTREMELY RAPID WARMING AROUND 800 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A RAPID CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET IN MANY AREAS BY 5 OR 6 PM.
STILL EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO PICK UP A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW IN ABOUT 3 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN SOME SLEET AND
EVENTUALLY SOME FREEZING RAIN AROUND THE TIME THAT THE
PRECIPITATION IS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY SEEMS
TO HAVE THIS HANDLED VERY WELL.


630 AM UPDATE...
OF COURSE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE INCOMING SNOW-TO-MIX SYSTEM /MORE ON
THAT BELOW/...BUT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM OUR TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING NEEDED SOME ADDITIONAL QC DUE TO DIFFERENCES WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS STRONGEST FROM CLEAR SKY...AND WHERE THE
LAST OF THE LAKE CLOUDS KEPT OTHER LOCALES SLIGHTLY MILDER. SOME
OF THE COLDER 6AM TEMPERATURES INCLUDE 7 BELOW IN ROME...0 IN
SIDNEY AND NORWICH...1 ABOVE IN CORTLAND AND SYRACUSE...AND 2 IN
ELMIRA. MEANWHILE AVOCA IS A RELATIVELY BALMY 14...AND PENN YAN
HAS A LITTLE WIND STIRRING WHICH IS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE THERE
AT 10.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW-TO-ICY-MIX STORM IS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER...FOR
STEUBEN-YATES-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CHEMUNG- TIOGA-BRADFORD COUNTIES
THE START TIME WAS MOVED UP TO 1PM. REMAINDER OF ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 3PM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PUMPING CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN NY THROUGH CENTRAL PA...AS INCOMING SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH IS SITTING DIRECTLY OVER US BUT WILL SLIDE
OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH...INCLUDING VERY IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON SHIELD OF SNOW
BREAKING OUT BETWEEN 1PM-3PM FOR MUCH OF TWIN TIERS TO FINGER
LAKES...AND 3PM-5PM POINTS FARTHER EAST AND NORTH...THUS THE
EARLIER ADJUSTMENT MADE TO START TIME TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
ADVISORY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS TELL THE STORY...OF A PERIOD OF SNOW /SHORTEST
DURATION SOUTH...LONGEST DURATION IN CENTRAL NY/ THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH GOOD LIFT
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THIS SHOULD BE A
QUITE ABRUPT BURST OF SNOW ONCE IT GETS GOING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT WILL MATERIALIZE WITHIN JUST
ABOUT 3 OR SO HOURS OF THE SNOW STARTING...WHICH WILL YIELD SLEET.
THE BELOW FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE DEEP AND
COLD...WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NEXT TRANSITION....FROM
SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GRADUAL /OR MAYBE
EVEN BACK-AND-FORTH A BIT/ THAN WE ARE USED TO FOR THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM. ONCE IT IS PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN...WE WILL ALSO LOSE
MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SO AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

BEFORE THE SWITCH TO ICY MIX...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A
DENSER 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM TWIN TIERS- SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWARD...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN CENTRAL NY- UPPER SUSQUEHANNA
REGION. THEN FOR THE ICE THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS TWIN TIERS TO NORTHEAST PA-
SULLIVAN COUNTY NY.

ONE ADDITIONAL THING TO NOTE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH RANGE. SNOW FOLLOWED BY
SLEET-FREEZING RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS IS A BAD COMBINATION. THE
WEIGHT OF THE DENSE PRECIPITATION PLUS WINDS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE DAMAGE SUCH AS BROKEN BRANCHES.

LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SHOULD START TO GET ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE DAWN
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TWIN TIERS...FINGER LAKES...AND WYOMING VALLEY.
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SOME AREAS EVEN GETTING UPPER 30S-NEAR 40. COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HOWEVER...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE AFTERNOON-
EVENING. AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY THOUGH WILL BE NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRONT DROPS SE TO BE FROM NYC TO CRW WED NGT. SNOW WILL MOVE NE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BE ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW WILL COME. NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN CENT NY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BUT CAA AND A NW FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROVIDING LIFT. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH LATE THU KICKING
THE COLD FRONT AND STEADY SNOW OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT AMOUNTS. THU NGT THE LES WILL
WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW
DROPPING THE WINDS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST AND
THE LES WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE TUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS. AS USUAL FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MOST
NOTABLE EVENT WILL BE MORE ARCTIC AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MORE
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...

VFR TO START WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN ATTM. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL AT LEAST 16Z.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.
AFTER 6Z TONIGHT MIXED PRECIP IS VERY LIGHT. POSSIBLE SOME CIG
IMPROVEMENT WITH THE FROPA.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING
THEN SOUTH AT 10 KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT BGM SYR ITH. LATE TONIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO SW AND
W AT 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED...MOSTLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS.

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT AVP AND PROBABLY ITH
BGM ELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ015-
     022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 031141
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY...A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY AN ICY WINTRY MIX TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY BUSY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
OF COURSE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE INCOMING SNOW-TO-MIX SYSTEM /MORE ON
THAT BELOW/...BUT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM OUR TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING NEEDED SOME ADDITIONAL QC DUE TO DIFFERENCES WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS STRONGEST FROM CLEAR SKY...AND WHERE THE
LAST OF THE LAKE CLOUDS KEPT OTHER LOCALES SLIGHTLY MILDER. SOME
OF THE COLDER 6AM TEMPERATURES INCLUDE 7 BELOW IN ROME...0 IN
SIDNEY AND NORWICH...1 ABOVE IN CORTLAND AND SYRACUSE...AND 2 IN
ELMIRA. MEANWHILE AVOCA IS A RELATIVELY BALMY 14...AND PENN YAN
HAS A LITTLE WIND STIRRING WHICH IS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE THERE
AT 10.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW-TO-ICY-MIX STORM IS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER...FOR
STEUBEN-YATES-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CHEMUNG- TIOGA-BRADFORD COUNTIES
THE START TIME WAS MOVED UP TO 1PM. REMAINDER OF ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 3PM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PUMPING CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN NY THROUGH CENTRAL PA...AS INCOMING SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH IS SITTING DIRECTLY OVER US BUT WILL SLIDE
OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH...INCLUDING VERY IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON SHIELD OF SNOW
BREAKING OUT BETWEEN 1PM-3PM FOR MUCH OF TWIN TIERS TO FINGER
LAKES...AND 3PM-5PM POINTS FARTHER EAST AND NORTH...THUS THE
EARLIER ADJUSTMENT MADE TO START TIME TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
ADVISORY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS TELL THE STORY...OF A PERIOD OF SNOW /SHORTEST
DURATION SOUTH...LONGEST DURATION IN CENTRAL NY/ THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH GOOD LIFT
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THIS SHOULD BE A
QUITE ABRUPT BURST OF SNOW ONCE IT GETS GOING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT WILL MATERIALIZE WITHIN JUST
ABOUT 3 OR SO HOURS OF THE SNOW STARTING...WHICH WILL YIELD SLEET.
THE BELOW FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE DEEP AND
COLD...WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NEXT TRANSITION....FROM
SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GRADUAL /OR MAYBE
EVEN BACK-AND-FORTH A BIT/ THAN WE ARE USED TO FOR THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM. ONCE IT IS PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN...WE WILL ALSO LOSE
MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SO AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

BEFORE THE SWITCH TO ICY MIX...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A
DENSER 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM TWIN TIERS- SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWARD...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN CENTRAL NY- UPPER SUSQUEHANNA
REGION. THEN FOR THE ICE THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS TWIN TIERS TO NORTHEAST PA-
SULLIVAN COUNTY NY.

ONE ADDITIONAL THING TO NOTE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH RANGE. SNOW FOLLOWED BY
SLEET-FREEZING RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS IS A BAD COMBINATION. THE
WEIGHT OF THE DENSE PRECIPITATION PLUS WINDS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE DAMAGE SUCH AS BROKEN BRANCHES.

LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SHOULD START TO GET ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE DAWN
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TWIN TIERS...FINGER LAKES...AND WYOMING VALLEY.
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SOME AREAS EVEN GETTING UPPER 30S-NEAR 40. COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HOWEVER...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE AFTERNOON-
EVENING. AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY THOUGH WILL BE NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRONT DROPS SE TO BE FROM NYC TO CRW WED NGT. SNOW WILL MOVE NE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BE ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW WILL COME. NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN CENT NY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BUT CAA AND A NW FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROVIDING LIFT. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH LATE THU KICKING
THE COLD FRONT AND STEADY SNOW OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT AMOUNTS. THU NGT THE LES WILL
WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW
DROPPING THE WINDS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST AND
THE LES WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE TUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS. AS USUAL FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MOST
NOTABLE EVENT WILL BE MORE ARCTIC AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MORE
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...

VFR TO START WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN ATTM. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL AT LEAST 16Z.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.
AFTER 6Z TONIGHT MIXED PRECIP IS VERY LIGHT. POSSIBLE SOME CIG
IMPROVEMENT WITH THE FROPA.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING
THEN SOUTH AT 10 KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT BGM SYR ITH. LATE TONIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO SW AND
W AT 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED...MOSTLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS.

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT AVP AND PROBABLY ITH
BGM ELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ015-022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 031141
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY...A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY AN ICY WINTRY MIX TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY BUSY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
OF COURSE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE INCOMING SNOW-TO-MIX SYSTEM /MORE ON
THAT BELOW/...BUT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM OUR TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING NEEDED SOME ADDITIONAL QC DUE TO DIFFERENCES WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS STRONGEST FROM CLEAR SKY...AND WHERE THE
LAST OF THE LAKE CLOUDS KEPT OTHER LOCALES SLIGHTLY MILDER. SOME
OF THE COLDER 6AM TEMPERATURES INCLUDE 7 BELOW IN ROME...0 IN
SIDNEY AND NORWICH...1 ABOVE IN CORTLAND AND SYRACUSE...AND 2 IN
ELMIRA. MEANWHILE AVOCA IS A RELATIVELY BALMY 14...AND PENN YAN
HAS A LITTLE WIND STIRRING WHICH IS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE THERE
AT 10.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW-TO-ICY-MIX STORM IS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER...FOR
STEUBEN-YATES-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CHEMUNG- TIOGA-BRADFORD COUNTIES
THE START TIME WAS MOVED UP TO 1PM. REMAINDER OF ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 3PM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PUMPING CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN NY THROUGH CENTRAL PA...AS INCOMING SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH IS SITTING DIRECTLY OVER US BUT WILL SLIDE
OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH...INCLUDING VERY IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON SHIELD OF SNOW
BREAKING OUT BETWEEN 1PM-3PM FOR MUCH OF TWIN TIERS TO FINGER
LAKES...AND 3PM-5PM POINTS FARTHER EAST AND NORTH...THUS THE
EARLIER ADJUSTMENT MADE TO START TIME TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
ADVISORY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS TELL THE STORY...OF A PERIOD OF SNOW /SHORTEST
DURATION SOUTH...LONGEST DURATION IN CENTRAL NY/ THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH GOOD LIFT
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THIS SHOULD BE A
QUITE ABRUPT BURST OF SNOW ONCE IT GETS GOING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT WILL MATERIALIZE WITHIN JUST
ABOUT 3 OR SO HOURS OF THE SNOW STARTING...WHICH WILL YIELD SLEET.
THE BELOW FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE DEEP AND
COLD...WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NEXT TRANSITION....FROM
SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GRADUAL /OR MAYBE
EVEN BACK-AND-FORTH A BIT/ THAN WE ARE USED TO FOR THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM. ONCE IT IS PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN...WE WILL ALSO LOSE
MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SO AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

BEFORE THE SWITCH TO ICY MIX...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A
DENSER 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM TWIN TIERS- SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWARD...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN CENTRAL NY- UPPER SUSQUEHANNA
REGION. THEN FOR THE ICE THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS TWIN TIERS TO NORTHEAST PA-
SULLIVAN COUNTY NY.

ONE ADDITIONAL THING TO NOTE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH RANGE. SNOW FOLLOWED BY
SLEET-FREEZING RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS IS A BAD COMBINATION. THE
WEIGHT OF THE DENSE PRECIPITATION PLUS WINDS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE DAMAGE SUCH AS BROKEN BRANCHES.

LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SHOULD START TO GET ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE DAWN
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TWIN TIERS...FINGER LAKES...AND WYOMING VALLEY.
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SOME AREAS EVEN GETTING UPPER 30S-NEAR 40. COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HOWEVER...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE AFTERNOON-
EVENING. AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY THOUGH WILL BE NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRONT DROPS SE TO BE FROM NYC TO CRW WED NGT. SNOW WILL MOVE NE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BE ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW WILL COME. NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN CENT NY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BUT CAA AND A NW FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROVIDING LIFT. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH LATE THU KICKING
THE COLD FRONT AND STEADY SNOW OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT AMOUNTS. THU NGT THE LES WILL
WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW
DROPPING THE WINDS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST AND
THE LES WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE TUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS. AS USUAL FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MOST
NOTABLE EVENT WILL BE MORE ARCTIC AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MORE
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...

VFR TO START WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN ATTM. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL AT LEAST 16Z.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.
AFTER 6Z TONIGHT MIXED PRECIP IS VERY LIGHT. POSSIBLE SOME CIG
IMPROVEMENT WITH THE FROPA.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING
THEN SOUTH AT 10 KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT BGM SYR ITH. LATE TONIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO SW AND
W AT 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED...MOSTLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS.

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT AVP AND PROBABLY ITH
BGM ELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ015-022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 031141
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY...A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY AN ICY WINTRY MIX TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY BUSY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
OF COURSE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE INCOMING SNOW-TO-MIX SYSTEM /MORE ON
THAT BELOW/...BUT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM OUR TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING NEEDED SOME ADDITIONAL QC DUE TO DIFFERENCES WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS STRONGEST FROM CLEAR SKY...AND WHERE THE
LAST OF THE LAKE CLOUDS KEPT OTHER LOCALES SLIGHTLY MILDER. SOME
OF THE COLDER 6AM TEMPERATURES INCLUDE 7 BELOW IN ROME...0 IN
SIDNEY AND NORWICH...1 ABOVE IN CORTLAND AND SYRACUSE...AND 2 IN
ELMIRA. MEANWHILE AVOCA IS A RELATIVELY BALMY 14...AND PENN YAN
HAS A LITTLE WIND STIRRING WHICH IS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE THERE
AT 10.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW-TO-ICY-MIX STORM IS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER...FOR
STEUBEN-YATES-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CHEMUNG- TIOGA-BRADFORD COUNTIES
THE START TIME WAS MOVED UP TO 1PM. REMAINDER OF ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 3PM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PUMPING CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN NY THROUGH CENTRAL PA...AS INCOMING SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH IS SITTING DIRECTLY OVER US BUT WILL SLIDE
OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH...INCLUDING VERY IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON SHIELD OF SNOW
BREAKING OUT BETWEEN 1PM-3PM FOR MUCH OF TWIN TIERS TO FINGER
LAKES...AND 3PM-5PM POINTS FARTHER EAST AND NORTH...THUS THE
EARLIER ADJUSTMENT MADE TO START TIME TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
ADVISORY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS TELL THE STORY...OF A PERIOD OF SNOW /SHORTEST
DURATION SOUTH...LONGEST DURATION IN CENTRAL NY/ THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH GOOD LIFT
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THIS SHOULD BE A
QUITE ABRUPT BURST OF SNOW ONCE IT GETS GOING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT WILL MATERIALIZE WITHIN JUST
ABOUT 3 OR SO HOURS OF THE SNOW STARTING...WHICH WILL YIELD SLEET.
THE BELOW FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE DEEP AND
COLD...WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NEXT TRANSITION....FROM
SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GRADUAL /OR MAYBE
EVEN BACK-AND-FORTH A BIT/ THAN WE ARE USED TO FOR THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM. ONCE IT IS PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN...WE WILL ALSO LOSE
MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SO AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

BEFORE THE SWITCH TO ICY MIX...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A
DENSER 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM TWIN TIERS- SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWARD...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN CENTRAL NY- UPPER SUSQUEHANNA
REGION. THEN FOR THE ICE THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS TWIN TIERS TO NORTHEAST PA-
SULLIVAN COUNTY NY.

ONE ADDITIONAL THING TO NOTE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH RANGE. SNOW FOLLOWED BY
SLEET-FREEZING RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS IS A BAD COMBINATION. THE
WEIGHT OF THE DENSE PRECIPITATION PLUS WINDS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE DAMAGE SUCH AS BROKEN BRANCHES.

LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SHOULD START TO GET ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE DAWN
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TWIN TIERS...FINGER LAKES...AND WYOMING VALLEY.
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SOME AREAS EVEN GETTING UPPER 30S-NEAR 40. COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HOWEVER...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE AFTERNOON-
EVENING. AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY THOUGH WILL BE NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRONT DROPS SE TO BE FROM NYC TO CRW WED NGT. SNOW WILL MOVE NE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BE ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW WILL COME. NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN CENT NY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BUT CAA AND A NW FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROVIDING LIFT. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH LATE THU KICKING
THE COLD FRONT AND STEADY SNOW OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT AMOUNTS. THU NGT THE LES WILL
WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW
DROPPING THE WINDS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST AND
THE LES WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE TUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS. AS USUAL FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MOST
NOTABLE EVENT WILL BE MORE ARCTIC AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MORE
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...

VFR TO START WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN ATTM. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL AT LEAST 16Z.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.
AFTER 6Z TONIGHT MIXED PRECIP IS VERY LIGHT. POSSIBLE SOME CIG
IMPROVEMENT WITH THE FROPA.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING
THEN SOUTH AT 10 KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT BGM SYR ITH. LATE TONIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO SW AND
W AT 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED...MOSTLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS.

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT AVP AND PROBABLY ITH
BGM ELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ015-022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 031141
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY...A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY AN ICY WINTRY MIX TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY BUSY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
OF COURSE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE INCOMING SNOW-TO-MIX SYSTEM /MORE ON
THAT BELOW/...BUT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM OUR TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING NEEDED SOME ADDITIONAL QC DUE TO DIFFERENCES WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS STRONGEST FROM CLEAR SKY...AND WHERE THE
LAST OF THE LAKE CLOUDS KEPT OTHER LOCALES SLIGHTLY MILDER. SOME
OF THE COLDER 6AM TEMPERATURES INCLUDE 7 BELOW IN ROME...0 IN
SIDNEY AND NORWICH...1 ABOVE IN CORTLAND AND SYRACUSE...AND 2 IN
ELMIRA. MEANWHILE AVOCA IS A RELATIVELY BALMY 14...AND PENN YAN
HAS A LITTLE WIND STIRRING WHICH IS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE THERE
AT 10.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW-TO-ICY-MIX STORM IS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER...FOR
STEUBEN-YATES-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CHEMUNG- TIOGA-BRADFORD COUNTIES
THE START TIME WAS MOVED UP TO 1PM. REMAINDER OF ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 3PM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PUMPING CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN NY THROUGH CENTRAL PA...AS INCOMING SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH IS SITTING DIRECTLY OVER US BUT WILL SLIDE
OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH...INCLUDING VERY IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON SHIELD OF SNOW
BREAKING OUT BETWEEN 1PM-3PM FOR MUCH OF TWIN TIERS TO FINGER
LAKES...AND 3PM-5PM POINTS FARTHER EAST AND NORTH...THUS THE
EARLIER ADJUSTMENT MADE TO START TIME TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
ADVISORY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS TELL THE STORY...OF A PERIOD OF SNOW /SHORTEST
DURATION SOUTH...LONGEST DURATION IN CENTRAL NY/ THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH GOOD LIFT
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THIS SHOULD BE A
QUITE ABRUPT BURST OF SNOW ONCE IT GETS GOING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT WILL MATERIALIZE WITHIN JUST
ABOUT 3 OR SO HOURS OF THE SNOW STARTING...WHICH WILL YIELD SLEET.
THE BELOW FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE DEEP AND
COLD...WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NEXT TRANSITION....FROM
SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GRADUAL /OR MAYBE
EVEN BACK-AND-FORTH A BIT/ THAN WE ARE USED TO FOR THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM. ONCE IT IS PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN...WE WILL ALSO LOSE
MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SO AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

BEFORE THE SWITCH TO ICY MIX...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A
DENSER 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM TWIN TIERS- SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWARD...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN CENTRAL NY- UPPER SUSQUEHANNA
REGION. THEN FOR THE ICE THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS TWIN TIERS TO NORTHEAST PA-
SULLIVAN COUNTY NY.

ONE ADDITIONAL THING TO NOTE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH RANGE. SNOW FOLLOWED BY
SLEET-FREEZING RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS IS A BAD COMBINATION. THE
WEIGHT OF THE DENSE PRECIPITATION PLUS WINDS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE DAMAGE SUCH AS BROKEN BRANCHES.

LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SHOULD START TO GET ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE DAWN
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TWIN TIERS...FINGER LAKES...AND WYOMING VALLEY.
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SOME AREAS EVEN GETTING UPPER 30S-NEAR 40. COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HOWEVER...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE AFTERNOON-
EVENING. AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY THOUGH WILL BE NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRONT DROPS SE TO BE FROM NYC TO CRW WED NGT. SNOW WILL MOVE NE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BE ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW WILL COME. NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN CENT NY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BUT CAA AND A NW FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROVIDING LIFT. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH LATE THU KICKING
THE COLD FRONT AND STEADY SNOW OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT AMOUNTS. THU NGT THE LES WILL
WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW
DROPPING THE WINDS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST AND
THE LES WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE TUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS. AS USUAL FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MOST
NOTABLE EVENT WILL BE MORE ARCTIC AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MORE
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...

VFR TO START WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN ATTM. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL AT LEAST 16Z.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.
AFTER 6Z TONIGHT MIXED PRECIP IS VERY LIGHT. POSSIBLE SOME CIG
IMPROVEMENT WITH THE FROPA.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING
THEN SOUTH AT 10 KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT BGM SYR ITH. LATE TONIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO SW AND
W AT 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED...MOSTLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS.

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT AVP AND PROBABLY ITH
BGM ELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ015-022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 031129
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
629 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY...A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY AN ICY WINTRY MIX TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY BUSY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
OF COURSE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE INCOMING SNOW-TO-MIX SYSTEM /MORE ON
THAT BELOW/...BUT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM OUR TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING NEEDED SOME ADDITIONAL QC DUE TO DIFFERENCES WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS STRONGEST FROM CLEAR SKY...AND WHERE THE
LAST OF THE LAKE CLOUDS KEPT OTHER LOCALES SLIGHTLY MILDER. SOME
OF THE COLDER 6AM TEMPERATURES INCLUDE 7 BELOW IN ROME...0 IN
SIDNEY AND NORWICH...1 ABOVE IN CORTLAND AND SYRACUSE...AND 2 IN
ELMIRA. MEANWHILE AVOCA IS A RELATIVELY BALMY 14...AND PENN YAN
HAS A LITTLE WIND STIRRING WHICH IS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE THERE
AT 10.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW-TO-ICY-MIX STORM IS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER...FOR
STEUBEN-YATES-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CHEMUNG- TIOGA-BRADFORD COUNTIES
THE START TIME WAS MOVED UP TO 1PM. REMAINDER OF ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 3PM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PUMPING CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN NY THROUGH CENTRAL PA...AS INCOMING SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH IS SITTING DIRECTLY OVER US BUT WILL SLIDE
OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH...INCLUDING VERY IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON SHIELD OF SNOW
BREAKING OUT BETWEEN 1PM-3PM FOR MUCH OF TWIN TIERS TO FINGER
LAKES...AND 3PM-5PM POINTS FARTHER EAST AND NORTH...THUS THE
EARLIER ADJUSTMENT MADE TO START TIME TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
ADVISORY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS TELL THE STORY...OF A PERIOD OF SNOW /SHORTEST
DURATION SOUTH...LONGEST DURATION IN CENTRAL NY/ THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH GOOD LIFT
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THIS SHOULD BE A
QUITE ABRUPT BURST OF SNOW ONCE IT GETS GOING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT WILL MATERIALIZE WITHIN JUST
ABOUT 3 OR SO HOURS OF THE SNOW STARTING...WHICH WILL YIELD SLEET.
THE BELOW FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE DEEP AND
COLD...WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NEXT TRANSITION....FROM
SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GRADUAL /OR MAYBE
EVEN BACK-AND-FORTH A BIT/ THAN WE ARE USED TO FOR THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM. ONCE IT IS PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN...WE WILL ALSO LOSE
MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SO AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

BEFORE THE SWITCH TO ICY MIX...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A
DENSER 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM TWIN TIERS- SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWARD...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN CENTRAL NY- UPPER SUSQUEHANNA
REGION. THEN FOR THE ICE THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS TWIN TIERS TO NORTHEAST PA-
SULLIVAN COUNTY NY.

ONE ADDITIONAL THING TO NOTE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH RANGE. SNOW FOLLOWED BY
SLEET-FREEZING RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS IS A BAD COMBINATION. THE
WEIGHT OF THE DENSE PRECIPITATION PLUS WINDS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE DAMAGE SUCH AS BROKEN BRANCHES.

LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SHOULD START TO GET ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE DAWN
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TWIN TIERS...FINGER LAKES...AND WYOMING VALLEY.
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SOME AREAS EVEN GETTING UPPER 30S-NEAR 40. COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HOWEVER...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE AFTERNOON-
EVENING. AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY THOUGH WILL BE NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRONT DROPS SE TO BE FROM NYC TO CRW WED NGT. SNOW WILL MOVE NE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BE ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW WILL COME. NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN CENT NY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BUT CAA AND A NW FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROVIDING LIFT. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH LATE THU KICKING
THE COLD FRONT AND STEADY SNOW OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT AMOUNTS. THU NGT THE LES WILL
WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW
DROPPING THE WINDS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST AND
THE LES WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE TUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS. AS USUAL FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MOST
NOTABLE EVENT WILL BE MORE ARCTIC AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MORE
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR ITH ELM BGM. CIGS AROUND 3K FT SO
MVFR AND VFR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z AS THE NW WINDS WEAKEN. REST OF SITES
VFR.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.

NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z. WINDS
SHIFTING TO SE TO S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING THEN SOUTH AT 10
KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT BGM SYR ITH.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS AND RA/FZRA.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ015-022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 031129
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
629 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY...A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY AN ICY WINTRY MIX TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY BUSY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
OF COURSE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE INCOMING SNOW-TO-MIX SYSTEM /MORE ON
THAT BELOW/...BUT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM OUR TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING NEEDED SOME ADDITIONAL QC DUE TO DIFFERENCES WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS STRONGEST FROM CLEAR SKY...AND WHERE THE
LAST OF THE LAKE CLOUDS KEPT OTHER LOCALES SLIGHTLY MILDER. SOME
OF THE COLDER 6AM TEMPERATURES INCLUDE 7 BELOW IN ROME...0 IN
SIDNEY AND NORWICH...1 ABOVE IN CORTLAND AND SYRACUSE...AND 2 IN
ELMIRA. MEANWHILE AVOCA IS A RELATIVELY BALMY 14...AND PENN YAN
HAS A LITTLE WIND STIRRING WHICH IS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE THERE
AT 10.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW-TO-ICY-MIX STORM IS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER...FOR
STEUBEN-YATES-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CHEMUNG- TIOGA-BRADFORD COUNTIES
THE START TIME WAS MOVED UP TO 1PM. REMAINDER OF ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 3PM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PUMPING CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN NY THROUGH CENTRAL PA...AS INCOMING SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH IS SITTING DIRECTLY OVER US BUT WILL SLIDE
OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH...INCLUDING VERY IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON SHIELD OF SNOW
BREAKING OUT BETWEEN 1PM-3PM FOR MUCH OF TWIN TIERS TO FINGER
LAKES...AND 3PM-5PM POINTS FARTHER EAST AND NORTH...THUS THE
EARLIER ADJUSTMENT MADE TO START TIME TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
ADVISORY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS TELL THE STORY...OF A PERIOD OF SNOW /SHORTEST
DURATION SOUTH...LONGEST DURATION IN CENTRAL NY/ THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH GOOD LIFT
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THIS SHOULD BE A
QUITE ABRUPT BURST OF SNOW ONCE IT GETS GOING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT WILL MATERIALIZE WITHIN JUST
ABOUT 3 OR SO HOURS OF THE SNOW STARTING...WHICH WILL YIELD SLEET.
THE BELOW FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE DEEP AND
COLD...WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NEXT TRANSITION....FROM
SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GRADUAL /OR MAYBE
EVEN BACK-AND-FORTH A BIT/ THAN WE ARE USED TO FOR THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM. ONCE IT IS PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN...WE WILL ALSO LOSE
MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SO AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

BEFORE THE SWITCH TO ICY MIX...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A
DENSER 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM TWIN TIERS- SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWARD...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN CENTRAL NY- UPPER SUSQUEHANNA
REGION. THEN FOR THE ICE THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS TWIN TIERS TO NORTHEAST PA-
SULLIVAN COUNTY NY.

ONE ADDITIONAL THING TO NOTE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH RANGE. SNOW FOLLOWED BY
SLEET-FREEZING RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS IS A BAD COMBINATION. THE
WEIGHT OF THE DENSE PRECIPITATION PLUS WINDS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE DAMAGE SUCH AS BROKEN BRANCHES.

LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SHOULD START TO GET ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE DAWN
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TWIN TIERS...FINGER LAKES...AND WYOMING VALLEY.
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SOME AREAS EVEN GETTING UPPER 30S-NEAR 40. COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HOWEVER...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE AFTERNOON-
EVENING. AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY THOUGH WILL BE NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRONT DROPS SE TO BE FROM NYC TO CRW WED NGT. SNOW WILL MOVE NE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BE ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW WILL COME. NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN CENT NY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BUT CAA AND A NW FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROVIDING LIFT. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH LATE THU KICKING
THE COLD FRONT AND STEADY SNOW OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT AMOUNTS. THU NGT THE LES WILL
WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW
DROPPING THE WINDS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST AND
THE LES WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE TUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS. AS USUAL FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MOST
NOTABLE EVENT WILL BE MORE ARCTIC AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MORE
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR ITH ELM BGM. CIGS AROUND 3K FT SO
MVFR AND VFR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z AS THE NW WINDS WEAKEN. REST OF SITES
VFR.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.

NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z. WINDS
SHIFTING TO SE TO S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING THEN SOUTH AT 10
KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT BGM SYR ITH.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS AND RA/FZRA.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ015-022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 031129
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
629 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY...A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY AN ICY WINTRY MIX TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY BUSY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
OF COURSE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE INCOMING SNOW-TO-MIX SYSTEM /MORE ON
THAT BELOW/...BUT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM OUR TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING NEEDED SOME ADDITIONAL QC DUE TO DIFFERENCES WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS STRONGEST FROM CLEAR SKY...AND WHERE THE
LAST OF THE LAKE CLOUDS KEPT OTHER LOCALES SLIGHTLY MILDER. SOME
OF THE COLDER 6AM TEMPERATURES INCLUDE 7 BELOW IN ROME...0 IN
SIDNEY AND NORWICH...1 ABOVE IN CORTLAND AND SYRACUSE...AND 2 IN
ELMIRA. MEANWHILE AVOCA IS A RELATIVELY BALMY 14...AND PENN YAN
HAS A LITTLE WIND STIRRING WHICH IS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE THERE
AT 10.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW-TO-ICY-MIX STORM IS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER...FOR
STEUBEN-YATES-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CHEMUNG- TIOGA-BRADFORD COUNTIES
THE START TIME WAS MOVED UP TO 1PM. REMAINDER OF ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 3PM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PUMPING CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN NY THROUGH CENTRAL PA...AS INCOMING SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH IS SITTING DIRECTLY OVER US BUT WILL SLIDE
OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH...INCLUDING VERY IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON SHIELD OF SNOW
BREAKING OUT BETWEEN 1PM-3PM FOR MUCH OF TWIN TIERS TO FINGER
LAKES...AND 3PM-5PM POINTS FARTHER EAST AND NORTH...THUS THE
EARLIER ADJUSTMENT MADE TO START TIME TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
ADVISORY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS TELL THE STORY...OF A PERIOD OF SNOW /SHORTEST
DURATION SOUTH...LONGEST DURATION IN CENTRAL NY/ THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH GOOD LIFT
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THIS SHOULD BE A
QUITE ABRUPT BURST OF SNOW ONCE IT GETS GOING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT WILL MATERIALIZE WITHIN JUST
ABOUT 3 OR SO HOURS OF THE SNOW STARTING...WHICH WILL YIELD SLEET.
THE BELOW FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE DEEP AND
COLD...WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NEXT TRANSITION....FROM
SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GRADUAL /OR MAYBE
EVEN BACK-AND-FORTH A BIT/ THAN WE ARE USED TO FOR THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM. ONCE IT IS PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN...WE WILL ALSO LOSE
MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SO AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

BEFORE THE SWITCH TO ICY MIX...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A
DENSER 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM TWIN TIERS- SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWARD...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN CENTRAL NY- UPPER SUSQUEHANNA
REGION. THEN FOR THE ICE THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS TWIN TIERS TO NORTHEAST PA-
SULLIVAN COUNTY NY.

ONE ADDITIONAL THING TO NOTE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH RANGE. SNOW FOLLOWED BY
SLEET-FREEZING RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS IS A BAD COMBINATION. THE
WEIGHT OF THE DENSE PRECIPITATION PLUS WINDS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE DAMAGE SUCH AS BROKEN BRANCHES.

LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SHOULD START TO GET ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE DAWN
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TWIN TIERS...FINGER LAKES...AND WYOMING VALLEY.
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SOME AREAS EVEN GETTING UPPER 30S-NEAR 40. COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HOWEVER...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE AFTERNOON-
EVENING. AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY THOUGH WILL BE NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRONT DROPS SE TO BE FROM NYC TO CRW WED NGT. SNOW WILL MOVE NE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BE ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW WILL COME. NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN CENT NY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BUT CAA AND A NW FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROVIDING LIFT. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH LATE THU KICKING
THE COLD FRONT AND STEADY SNOW OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT AMOUNTS. THU NGT THE LES WILL
WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW
DROPPING THE WINDS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST AND
THE LES WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE TUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS. AS USUAL FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MOST
NOTABLE EVENT WILL BE MORE ARCTIC AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MORE
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR ITH ELM BGM. CIGS AROUND 3K FT SO
MVFR AND VFR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z AS THE NW WINDS WEAKEN. REST OF SITES
VFR.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.

NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z. WINDS
SHIFTING TO SE TO S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING THEN SOUTH AT 10
KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT BGM SYR ITH.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS AND RA/FZRA.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ015-022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 031129
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
629 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY...A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY AN ICY WINTRY MIX TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY BUSY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
OF COURSE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE INCOMING SNOW-TO-MIX SYSTEM /MORE ON
THAT BELOW/...BUT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM OUR TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING NEEDED SOME ADDITIONAL QC DUE TO DIFFERENCES WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS STRONGEST FROM CLEAR SKY...AND WHERE THE
LAST OF THE LAKE CLOUDS KEPT OTHER LOCALES SLIGHTLY MILDER. SOME
OF THE COLDER 6AM TEMPERATURES INCLUDE 7 BELOW IN ROME...0 IN
SIDNEY AND NORWICH...1 ABOVE IN CORTLAND AND SYRACUSE...AND 2 IN
ELMIRA. MEANWHILE AVOCA IS A RELATIVELY BALMY 14...AND PENN YAN
HAS A LITTLE WIND STIRRING WHICH IS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE THERE
AT 10.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW-TO-ICY-MIX STORM IS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER...FOR
STEUBEN-YATES-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CHEMUNG- TIOGA-BRADFORD COUNTIES
THE START TIME WAS MOVED UP TO 1PM. REMAINDER OF ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 3PM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PUMPING CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN NY THROUGH CENTRAL PA...AS INCOMING SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH IS SITTING DIRECTLY OVER US BUT WILL SLIDE
OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH...INCLUDING VERY IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON SHIELD OF SNOW
BREAKING OUT BETWEEN 1PM-3PM FOR MUCH OF TWIN TIERS TO FINGER
LAKES...AND 3PM-5PM POINTS FARTHER EAST AND NORTH...THUS THE
EARLIER ADJUSTMENT MADE TO START TIME TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
ADVISORY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS TELL THE STORY...OF A PERIOD OF SNOW /SHORTEST
DURATION SOUTH...LONGEST DURATION IN CENTRAL NY/ THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH GOOD LIFT
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THIS SHOULD BE A
QUITE ABRUPT BURST OF SNOW ONCE IT GETS GOING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT WILL MATERIALIZE WITHIN JUST
ABOUT 3 OR SO HOURS OF THE SNOW STARTING...WHICH WILL YIELD SLEET.
THE BELOW FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE DEEP AND
COLD...WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NEXT TRANSITION....FROM
SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GRADUAL /OR MAYBE
EVEN BACK-AND-FORTH A BIT/ THAN WE ARE USED TO FOR THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM. ONCE IT IS PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN...WE WILL ALSO LOSE
MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SO AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

BEFORE THE SWITCH TO ICY MIX...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A
DENSER 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM TWIN TIERS- SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWARD...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN CENTRAL NY- UPPER SUSQUEHANNA
REGION. THEN FOR THE ICE THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS TWIN TIERS TO NORTHEAST PA-
SULLIVAN COUNTY NY.

ONE ADDITIONAL THING TO NOTE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH RANGE. SNOW FOLLOWED BY
SLEET-FREEZING RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS IS A BAD COMBINATION. THE
WEIGHT OF THE DENSE PRECIPITATION PLUS WINDS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE DAMAGE SUCH AS BROKEN BRANCHES.

LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SHOULD START TO GET ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE DAWN
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TWIN TIERS...FINGER LAKES...AND WYOMING VALLEY.
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SOME AREAS EVEN GETTING UPPER 30S-NEAR 40. COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HOWEVER...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE AFTERNOON-
EVENING. AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY THOUGH WILL BE NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRONT DROPS SE TO BE FROM NYC TO CRW WED NGT. SNOW WILL MOVE NE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BE ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW WILL COME. NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN CENT NY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BUT CAA AND A NW FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROVIDING LIFT. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH LATE THU KICKING
THE COLD FRONT AND STEADY SNOW OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT AMOUNTS. THU NGT THE LES WILL
WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW
DROPPING THE WINDS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST AND
THE LES WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE TUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS. AS USUAL FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MOST
NOTABLE EVENT WILL BE MORE ARCTIC AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MORE
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR ITH ELM BGM. CIGS AROUND 3K FT SO
MVFR AND VFR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z AS THE NW WINDS WEAKEN. REST OF SITES
VFR.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.

NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z. WINDS
SHIFTING TO SE TO S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING THEN SOUTH AT 10
KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT BGM SYR ITH.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS AND RA/FZRA.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ015-022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 031018
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
518 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY...A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY AN ICY WINTRY MIX TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY BUSY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
445 AM UPDATE...
SNOW-TO-ICY-MIX STORM IS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER...FOR
STEUBEN-YATES-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CHEMUNG-TIOGA-BRADFORD COUNTIES
THE START TIME WAS MOVED UP TO 1PM. REMAINDER OF ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 3PM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PUMPING CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN NY THROUGH CENTRAL PA...AS INCOMING SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH IS SITTING DIRECTLY OVER US BUT WHILE
SLIDE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH...INCLUDING VERY
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON SHIELD OF
SNOW BREAKING OUT BETWEEN 1PM-3PM FOR MUCH OF TWIN TIERS TO FINGER
LAKES...AND 3PM-5PM POINTS FARTHER EAST AND NORTH...THUS THE
EARLIER ADJUSTMENT MADE TO START TIME TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
ADVISORY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS TELL THE STORY...OF A PERIOD OF SNOW /SHORTEST
DURATION SOUTH...LONGEST DURATION IN CENTRAL NY/ THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH GOOD LIFT
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THIS SHOULD BE A
QUITE ABRUPT BURST OF SNOW ONCE IT GETS GOING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT WILL MATERIALIZE WITHIN JUST
ABOUT 3 OR SO HOURS OF THE SNOW STARTING...WHICH WILL YIELD SLEET.
THE BELOW FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE DEEP AND
COLD...WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NEXT TRANSITION....FROM
SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GRADUAL /OR MAYBE
EVEN BACK-AND-FORTH A BIT/ THAN WE ARE USED TO FOR THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM. ONCE IT IS PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN...WE WILL ALSO LOSE
MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SO AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

BEFORE THE SWITCH TO ICY MIX...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A
DENSER 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM TWIN TIERS- SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWARD...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN CENTRAL NY- UPPER SUSQUEHANNA
REGION. THEN FOR THE ICE THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS TWIN TIERS TO NORTHEAST PA-
SULLIVAN COUNTY NY.

ONE ADDITIONAL THING TO NOTE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH RANGE. SNOW FOLLOWED BY
SLEET-FREEZING RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS IS A BAD COMBINATION. THE
WEIGHT OF THE DENSE PRECIPITATION PLUS WINDS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE DAMAGE SUCH AS BROKEN BRANCHES.

LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SHOULD START TO GET ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE DAWN
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TWIN TIERS...FINGER LAKES...AND WYOMING VALLEY.
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SOME AREAS EVEN GETTING UPPER 30S-NEAR 40. COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HOWEVER...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE AFTERNOON-
EVENING. AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY THOUGH WILL BE NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRONT DROPS SE TO BE FROM NYC TO CRW WED NGT. SNOW WILL MOVE NE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BE ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW WILL COME. NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN CENT NY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BUT CAA AND A NW FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROVIDING LIFT. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH LATE THU KICKING
THE COLD FRONT AND STEADY SNOW OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT AMOUNTS. THU NGT THE LES WILL
WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW
DROPPING THE WINDS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST AND
THE LES WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE TUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS. AS USUAL FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MOST
NOTABLE EVENT WILL BE MORE ARCTIC AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MORE
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR ITH ELM BGM. CIGS AROUND 3K FT SO
MVFR AND VFR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z AS THE NW WINDS WEAKEN. REST OF SITES
VFR.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.

NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z. WINDS
SHIFTING TO SE TO S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING THEN SOUTH AT 10
KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT BGM SYR ITH.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS AND RA/FZRA.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ015-022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 031018
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
518 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY...A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY AN ICY WINTRY MIX TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY BUSY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
445 AM UPDATE...
SNOW-TO-ICY-MIX STORM IS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER...FOR
STEUBEN-YATES-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CHEMUNG-TIOGA-BRADFORD COUNTIES
THE START TIME WAS MOVED UP TO 1PM. REMAINDER OF ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 3PM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PUMPING CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN NY THROUGH CENTRAL PA...AS INCOMING SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH IS SITTING DIRECTLY OVER US BUT WHILE
SLIDE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH...INCLUDING VERY
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON SHIELD OF
SNOW BREAKING OUT BETWEEN 1PM-3PM FOR MUCH OF TWIN TIERS TO FINGER
LAKES...AND 3PM-5PM POINTS FARTHER EAST AND NORTH...THUS THE
EARLIER ADJUSTMENT MADE TO START TIME TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
ADVISORY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS TELL THE STORY...OF A PERIOD OF SNOW /SHORTEST
DURATION SOUTH...LONGEST DURATION IN CENTRAL NY/ THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH GOOD LIFT
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THIS SHOULD BE A
QUITE ABRUPT BURST OF SNOW ONCE IT GETS GOING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT WILL MATERIALIZE WITHIN JUST
ABOUT 3 OR SO HOURS OF THE SNOW STARTING...WHICH WILL YIELD SLEET.
THE BELOW FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE DEEP AND
COLD...WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NEXT TRANSITION....FROM
SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GRADUAL /OR MAYBE
EVEN BACK-AND-FORTH A BIT/ THAN WE ARE USED TO FOR THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM. ONCE IT IS PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN...WE WILL ALSO LOSE
MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SO AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

BEFORE THE SWITCH TO ICY MIX...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A
DENSER 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM TWIN TIERS- SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWARD...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN CENTRAL NY- UPPER SUSQUEHANNA
REGION. THEN FOR THE ICE THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS TWIN TIERS TO NORTHEAST PA-
SULLIVAN COUNTY NY.

ONE ADDITIONAL THING TO NOTE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH RANGE. SNOW FOLLOWED BY
SLEET-FREEZING RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS IS A BAD COMBINATION. THE
WEIGHT OF THE DENSE PRECIPITATION PLUS WINDS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE DAMAGE SUCH AS BROKEN BRANCHES.

LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SHOULD START TO GET ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE DAWN
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TWIN TIERS...FINGER LAKES...AND WYOMING VALLEY.
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SOME AREAS EVEN GETTING UPPER 30S-NEAR 40. COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HOWEVER...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE AFTERNOON-
EVENING. AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY THOUGH WILL BE NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRONT DROPS SE TO BE FROM NYC TO CRW WED NGT. SNOW WILL MOVE NE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BE ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW WILL COME. NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN CENT NY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BUT CAA AND A NW FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROVIDING LIFT. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH LATE THU KICKING
THE COLD FRONT AND STEADY SNOW OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT AMOUNTS. THU NGT THE LES WILL
WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW
DROPPING THE WINDS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST AND
THE LES WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE TUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS. AS USUAL FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MOST
NOTABLE EVENT WILL BE MORE ARCTIC AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MORE
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR ITH ELM BGM. CIGS AROUND 3K FT SO
MVFR AND VFR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z AS THE NW WINDS WEAKEN. REST OF SITES
VFR.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.

NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z. WINDS
SHIFTING TO SE TO S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING THEN SOUTH AT 10
KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT BGM SYR ITH.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS AND RA/FZRA.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ015-022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 031018
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
518 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY...A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY AN ICY WINTRY MIX TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY BUSY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
445 AM UPDATE...
SNOW-TO-ICY-MIX STORM IS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER...FOR
STEUBEN-YATES-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CHEMUNG-TIOGA-BRADFORD COUNTIES
THE START TIME WAS MOVED UP TO 1PM. REMAINDER OF ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 3PM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PUMPING CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN NY THROUGH CENTRAL PA...AS INCOMING SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH IS SITTING DIRECTLY OVER US BUT WHILE
SLIDE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH...INCLUDING VERY
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON SHIELD OF
SNOW BREAKING OUT BETWEEN 1PM-3PM FOR MUCH OF TWIN TIERS TO FINGER
LAKES...AND 3PM-5PM POINTS FARTHER EAST AND NORTH...THUS THE
EARLIER ADJUSTMENT MADE TO START TIME TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
ADVISORY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS TELL THE STORY...OF A PERIOD OF SNOW /SHORTEST
DURATION SOUTH...LONGEST DURATION IN CENTRAL NY/ THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH GOOD LIFT
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THIS SHOULD BE A
QUITE ABRUPT BURST OF SNOW ONCE IT GETS GOING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT WILL MATERIALIZE WITHIN JUST
ABOUT 3 OR SO HOURS OF THE SNOW STARTING...WHICH WILL YIELD SLEET.
THE BELOW FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE DEEP AND
COLD...WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NEXT TRANSITION....FROM
SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GRADUAL /OR MAYBE
EVEN BACK-AND-FORTH A BIT/ THAN WE ARE USED TO FOR THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM. ONCE IT IS PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN...WE WILL ALSO LOSE
MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SO AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

BEFORE THE SWITCH TO ICY MIX...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A
DENSER 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM TWIN TIERS- SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWARD...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN CENTRAL NY- UPPER SUSQUEHANNA
REGION. THEN FOR THE ICE THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS TWIN TIERS TO NORTHEAST PA-
SULLIVAN COUNTY NY.

ONE ADDITIONAL THING TO NOTE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH RANGE. SNOW FOLLOWED BY
SLEET-FREEZING RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS IS A BAD COMBINATION. THE
WEIGHT OF THE DENSE PRECIPITATION PLUS WINDS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE DAMAGE SUCH AS BROKEN BRANCHES.

LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SHOULD START TO GET ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE DAWN
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TWIN TIERS...FINGER LAKES...AND WYOMING VALLEY.
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SOME AREAS EVEN GETTING UPPER 30S-NEAR 40. COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HOWEVER...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE AFTERNOON-
EVENING. AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY THOUGH WILL BE NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRONT DROPS SE TO BE FROM NYC TO CRW WED NGT. SNOW WILL MOVE NE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BE ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW WILL COME. NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN CENT NY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BUT CAA AND A NW FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROVIDING LIFT. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH LATE THU KICKING
THE COLD FRONT AND STEADY SNOW OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT AMOUNTS. THU NGT THE LES WILL
WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW
DROPPING THE WINDS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST AND
THE LES WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE TUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS. AS USUAL FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MOST
NOTABLE EVENT WILL BE MORE ARCTIC AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MORE
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR ITH ELM BGM. CIGS AROUND 3K FT SO
MVFR AND VFR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z AS THE NW WINDS WEAKEN. REST OF SITES
VFR.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.

NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z. WINDS
SHIFTING TO SE TO S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING THEN SOUTH AT 10
KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT BGM SYR ITH.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS AND RA/FZRA.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ015-022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 031018
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
518 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE DAY...A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
A QUICK COATING OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY AN ICY WINTRY MIX TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY BUSY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
445 AM UPDATE...
SNOW-TO-ICY-MIX STORM IS THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER...FOR
STEUBEN-YATES-SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CHEMUNG-TIOGA-BRADFORD COUNTIES
THE START TIME WAS MOVED UP TO 1PM. REMAINDER OF ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 3PM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PUMPING CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN NY THROUGH CENTRAL PA...AS INCOMING SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH IS SITTING DIRECTLY OVER US BUT WHILE
SLIDE OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH...INCLUDING VERY
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON SHIELD OF
SNOW BREAKING OUT BETWEEN 1PM-3PM FOR MUCH OF TWIN TIERS TO FINGER
LAKES...AND 3PM-5PM POINTS FARTHER EAST AND NORTH...THUS THE
EARLIER ADJUSTMENT MADE TO START TIME TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
ADVISORY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS TELL THE STORY...OF A PERIOD OF SNOW /SHORTEST
DURATION SOUTH...LONGEST DURATION IN CENTRAL NY/ THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH GOOD LIFT
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THIS SHOULD BE A
QUITE ABRUPT BURST OF SNOW ONCE IT GETS GOING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT WILL MATERIALIZE WITHIN JUST
ABOUT 3 OR SO HOURS OF THE SNOW STARTING...WHICH WILL YIELD SLEET.
THE BELOW FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE DEEP AND
COLD...WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NEXT TRANSITION....FROM
SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GRADUAL /OR MAYBE
EVEN BACK-AND-FORTH A BIT/ THAN WE ARE USED TO FOR THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM. ONCE IT IS PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN...WE WILL ALSO LOSE
MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SO AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

BEFORE THE SWITCH TO ICY MIX...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A
DENSER 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM TWIN TIERS- SOUTHERN CATSKILLS
SOUTHWARD...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN CENTRAL NY- UPPER SUSQUEHANNA
REGION. THEN FOR THE ICE THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS TWIN TIERS TO NORTHEAST PA-
SULLIVAN COUNTY NY.

ONE ADDITIONAL THING TO NOTE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH RANGE. SNOW FOLLOWED BY
SLEET-FREEZING RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS IS A BAD COMBINATION. THE
WEIGHT OF THE DENSE PRECIPITATION PLUS WINDS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE DAMAGE SUCH AS BROKEN BRANCHES.

LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SHOULD START TO GET ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE DAWN
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TWIN TIERS...FINGER LAKES...AND WYOMING VALLEY.
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SOME AREAS EVEN GETTING UPPER 30S-NEAR 40. COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HOWEVER...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY MIX TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE AFTERNOON-
EVENING. AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY THOUGH WILL BE NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRONT DROPS SE TO BE FROM NYC TO CRW WED NGT. SNOW WILL MOVE NE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BE ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW WILL COME. NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN CENT NY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BUT CAA AND A NW FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROVIDING LIFT. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH LATE THU KICKING
THE COLD FRONT AND STEADY SNOW OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT AMOUNTS. THU NGT THE LES WILL
WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW
DROPPING THE WINDS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST AND
THE LES WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE TUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS. AS USUAL FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MOST
NOTABLE EVENT WILL BE MORE ARCTIC AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MORE
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR ITH ELM BGM. CIGS AROUND 3K FT SO
MVFR AND VFR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z AS THE NW WINDS WEAKEN. REST OF SITES
VFR.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.

NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z. WINDS
SHIFTING TO SE TO S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING THEN SOUTH AT 10
KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT BGM SYR ITH.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS AND RA/FZRA.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ015-022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 030932
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
432 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST. THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE... JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVE...AS THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LES IS WEAKENING ATTM...AS EXPECTED. AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES IN
OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY 03-06Z.
SC CLDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCTR OUT AND CONTRACT
CLOSER TO THE LK ONT SHORELINE LTR THIS EVE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR AT THAT POINT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER LVL CLDS...IN ADVANCE OF TMRW`S
SYSTEM...MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS
DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC... 300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRONT DROPS SE TO BE FROM NYC TO CRW WED NGT. SNOW WILL MOVE NE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BE ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW WILL COME. NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN CENT NY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BUT CAA AND A NW FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROVIDING LIFT. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH LATE THU KICKING
THE COLD FRONT AND STEADY SNOW OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT AMOUNTS. THU NGT THE LES WILL
WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW
DROPPING THE WINDS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST AND
THE LES WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE TUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS. AS USUAL FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MOST
NOTABLE EVENT WILL BE MORE ARCTIC AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MORE
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR ITH ELM BGM. CIGS AROUND 3K FT SO
MVFR AND VFR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z AS THE NW WINDS WEAKEN. REST OF SITES
VFR.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.

NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z. WINDS
SHIFTING TO SE TO S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING THEN SOUTH AT 10
KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT BGM SYR ITH.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS AND RA/FZRA.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ015-022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 030932
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
432 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST. THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE... JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVE...AS THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LES IS WEAKENING ATTM...AS EXPECTED. AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES IN
OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY 03-06Z.
SC CLDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCTR OUT AND CONTRACT
CLOSER TO THE LK ONT SHORELINE LTR THIS EVE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR AT THAT POINT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER LVL CLDS...IN ADVANCE OF TMRW`S
SYSTEM...MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS
DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC... 300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRONT DROPS SE TO BE FROM NYC TO CRW WED NGT. SNOW WILL MOVE NE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BE ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW WILL COME. NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN CENT NY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BUT CAA AND A NW FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROVIDING LIFT. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH LATE THU KICKING
THE COLD FRONT AND STEADY SNOW OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT AMOUNTS. THU NGT THE LES WILL
WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW
DROPPING THE WINDS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST AND
THE LES WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE TUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS. AS USUAL FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MOST
NOTABLE EVENT WILL BE MORE ARCTIC AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MORE
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR ITH ELM BGM. CIGS AROUND 3K FT SO
MVFR AND VFR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z AS THE NW WINDS WEAKEN. REST OF SITES
VFR.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.

NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z. WINDS
SHIFTING TO SE TO S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING THEN SOUTH AT 10
KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT BGM SYR ITH.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS AND RA/FZRA.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ015-022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 030932
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
432 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST. THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE... JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVE...AS THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LES IS WEAKENING ATTM...AS EXPECTED. AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES IN
OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY 03-06Z.
SC CLDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCTR OUT AND CONTRACT
CLOSER TO THE LK ONT SHORELINE LTR THIS EVE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR AT THAT POINT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER LVL CLDS...IN ADVANCE OF TMRW`S
SYSTEM...MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS
DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC... 300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRONT DROPS SE TO BE FROM NYC TO CRW WED NGT. SNOW WILL MOVE NE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BE ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW WILL COME. NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN CENT NY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BUT CAA AND A NW FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROVIDING LIFT. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH LATE THU KICKING
THE COLD FRONT AND STEADY SNOW OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT AMOUNTS. THU NGT THE LES WILL
WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW
DROPPING THE WINDS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST AND
THE LES WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE TUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS. AS USUAL FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MOST
NOTABLE EVENT WILL BE MORE ARCTIC AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MORE
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR ITH ELM BGM. CIGS AROUND 3K FT SO
MVFR AND VFR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z AS THE NW WINDS WEAKEN. REST OF SITES
VFR.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.

NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z. WINDS
SHIFTING TO SE TO S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING THEN SOUTH AT 10
KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT BGM SYR ITH.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS AND RA/FZRA.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ015-022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 030932
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
432 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST. THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE... JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVE...AS THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LES IS WEAKENING ATTM...AS EXPECTED. AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES IN
OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY 03-06Z.
SC CLDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCTR OUT AND CONTRACT
CLOSER TO THE LK ONT SHORELINE LTR THIS EVE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR AT THAT POINT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER LVL CLDS...IN ADVANCE OF TMRW`S
SYSTEM...MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS
DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC... 300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRONT DROPS SE TO BE FROM NYC TO CRW WED NGT. SNOW WILL MOVE NE
ALONG THE FRONT AND BE ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS SNOW WILL COME. NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS COULD PICK UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN CENT NY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BUT CAA AND A NW FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROVIDING LIFT. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH LATE THU KICKING
THE COLD FRONT AND STEADY SNOW OFF THE COAST. SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE LIGHT AMOUNTS. THU NGT THE LES WILL
WEAKEN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW
DROPPING THE WINDS. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST AND
THE LES WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE TUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS. AS USUAL FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MOST
NOTABLE EVENT WILL BE MORE ARCTIC AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MORE
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR ITH ELM BGM. CIGS AROUND 3K FT SO
MVFR AND VFR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z AS THE NW WINDS WEAKEN. REST OF SITES
VFR.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.

NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z. WINDS
SHIFTING TO SE TO S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING THEN SOUTH AT 10
KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT BGM SYR ITH.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS AND RA/FZRA.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ015-022>025-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 030601
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
101 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST. THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 PM UPDATE... JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVE...AS THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LES IS WEAKENING ATTM...AS EXPECTED. AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES IN
OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY 03-06Z.
SC CLDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCTR OUT AND CONTRACT
CLOSER TO THE LK ONT SHORELINE LTR THIS EVE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR AT THAT POINT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER LVL CLDS...IN ADVANCE OF TMRW`S
SYSTEM...MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC... 300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR ITH ELM BGM. CIGS AROUND 3K FT SO
MVFR AND VFR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z AS THE NW WINDS WEAKEN. REST OF SITES
VFR.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.

NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z. WINDS
SHIFTING TO SE TO S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING THEN SOUTH AT 10
KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT BGM SYR ITH.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS AND RA/FZRA.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 030601
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
101 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST. THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 PM UPDATE... JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVE...AS THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LES IS WEAKENING ATTM...AS EXPECTED. AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES IN
OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY 03-06Z.
SC CLDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCTR OUT AND CONTRACT
CLOSER TO THE LK ONT SHORELINE LTR THIS EVE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR AT THAT POINT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER LVL CLDS...IN ADVANCE OF TMRW`S
SYSTEM...MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC... 300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR ITH ELM BGM. CIGS AROUND 3K FT SO
MVFR AND VFR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z AS THE NW WINDS WEAKEN. REST OF SITES
VFR.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.

NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z. WINDS
SHIFTING TO SE TO S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING THEN SOUTH AT 10
KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT BGM SYR ITH.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS AND RA/FZRA.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 030601
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
101 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST. THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 PM UPDATE... JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVE...AS THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LES IS WEAKENING ATTM...AS EXPECTED. AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES IN
OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY 03-06Z.
SC CLDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCTR OUT AND CONTRACT
CLOSER TO THE LK ONT SHORELINE LTR THIS EVE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR AT THAT POINT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER LVL CLDS...IN ADVANCE OF TMRW`S
SYSTEM...MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC... 300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR ITH ELM BGM. CIGS AROUND 3K FT SO
MVFR AND VFR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z AS THE NW WINDS WEAKEN. REST OF SITES
VFR.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.

NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z. WINDS
SHIFTING TO SE TO S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING THEN SOUTH AT 10
KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT BGM SYR ITH.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS AND RA/FZRA.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 030601
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
101 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST. THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 PM UPDATE... JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVE...AS THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LES IS WEAKENING ATTM...AS EXPECTED. AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES IN
OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY 03-06Z.
SC CLDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCTR OUT AND CONTRACT
CLOSER TO THE LK ONT SHORELINE LTR THIS EVE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR AT THAT POINT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER LVL CLDS...IN ADVANCE OF TMRW`S
SYSTEM...MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC... 300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR ITH ELM BGM. CIGS AROUND 3K FT SO
MVFR AND VFR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z AS THE NW WINDS WEAKEN. REST OF SITES
VFR.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.

NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z. WINDS
SHIFTING TO SE TO S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING THEN SOUTH AT 10
KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT BGM SYR ITH.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS AND RA/FZRA.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 030343
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1043 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND
COLD NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE... JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVE...AS THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LES IS WEAKENING ATTM...AS EXPECTED. AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES IN
OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY 03-06Z.
SC CLDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCTR OUT AND CONTRACT
CLOSER TO THE LK ONT SHORELINE LTR THIS EVE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR AT THAT POINT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER LVL CLDS...IN ADVANCE OF TMRW`S
SYSTEM...MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC... 300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING LAKE BAND IS SKIRTING KRME EARLY THIS EVENING, ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT, CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND DROPPING THE WINDS DOWN TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z. THE SNOW
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT KELM AROUND 22Z.
ADDITIONAL MIXED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITHIN THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 030034
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
734 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND
COLD NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE... JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVE...AS THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LES IS WEAKENING ATTM...AS EXPECTED. AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES IN
OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY 03-06Z.
SC CLDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCTR OUT AND CONTRACT
CLOSER TO THE LK ONT SHORELINE LTR THIS EVE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR AT THAT POINT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER LVL CLDS...IN ADVANCE OF TMRW`S
SYSTEM...MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC... 300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING LAKE BAND IS SKIRTING KRME EARLY THIS EVENING, ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT, CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND DROPPING THE WINDS DOWN TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z. THE SNOW
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING AT KELM AROUND 22Z.
ADDITIONAL MIXED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITHIN THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 030034
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
734 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND
COLD NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE... JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVE...AS THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LES IS WEAKENING ATTM...AS EXPECTED. AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES IN
OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY 03-06Z.
SC CLDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCTR OUT AND CONTRACT
CLOSER TO THE LK ONT SHORELINE LTR THIS EVE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR AT THAT POINT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER LVL CLDS...IN ADVANCE OF TMRW`S
SYSTEM...MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC... 300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING LAKE BAND IS SKIRTING KRME EARLY THIS EVENING, ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT, CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND DROPPING THE WINDS DOWN TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z. THE SNOW
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING AT KELM AROUND 22Z.
ADDITIONAL MIXED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITHIN THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 030034
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
734 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND
COLD NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE... JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVE...AS THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LES IS WEAKENING ATTM...AS EXPECTED. AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES IN
OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY 03-06Z.
SC CLDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCTR OUT AND CONTRACT
CLOSER TO THE LK ONT SHORELINE LTR THIS EVE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR AT THAT POINT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER LVL CLDS...IN ADVANCE OF TMRW`S
SYSTEM...MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC... 300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING LAKE BAND IS SKIRTING KRME EARLY THIS EVENING, ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT, CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND DROPPING THE WINDS DOWN TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z. THE SNOW
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING AT KELM AROUND 22Z.
ADDITIONAL MIXED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITHIN THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 022330
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
630 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND
COLD NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING LAKE BAND IS SKIRTING KRME EARLY THIS EVENING, ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT, CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND DROPPING THE WINDS DOWN TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z. THE SNOW
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING AT KELM AROUND 22Z.
ADDITIONAL MIXED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITHIN THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 022012
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
312 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND
COLD NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM









000
FXUS61 KBGM 022012
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
312 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND
COLD NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 022012
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
312 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND
COLD NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 022012
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
312 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND
COLD NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM









000
FXUS61 KBGM 021846
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 021846
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 021846
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 021846
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 021756
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1256 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.


&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 021756
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1256 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.


&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 021756
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1256 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.


&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 021637
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1137 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHEST AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE AT KSYR WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PRODUCING IFR VSBYS AND BELOW ALT MINS THROUGH 20Z. BEYOND
THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY ENDS TOWARD 03Z. AT
KRME WE MAY APPROACH IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY THROUGH MID MORNING BUT THE
WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOWS JUST, JUST
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

AT KBGM AND KAVP AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE
TERMINALS PRODUCING BRIEF IFR VSBYS THIS MORNING IN VERY LIGHT
SNOW. WE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ALT MINS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING AT KELM, BUT
TEND TO HANG ON ELSEWHERE THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR BY EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN BY EARLY WED.

THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 021549
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1049 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

LE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURS
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES IT GRIP OVER THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THURS NIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND MAYBE JUST
HOLD ON ENOUGH TO BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON
SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPR LVL WAVE PASSES BY...CHANCES ARE SLIM SO
KEPT 20 POPS.

TEMPS SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS SEASONAL NORM VALUES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHEST AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE AT KSYR WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PRODUCING IFR VSBYS AND BELOW ALT MINS THROUGH 20Z. BEYOND
THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY ENDS TOWARD 03Z. AT
KRME WE MAY APPROACH IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY THROUGH MID MORNING BUT THE
WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOWS JUST, JUST
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

AT KBGM AND KAVP AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE
TERMINALS PRODUCING BRIEF IFR VSBYS THIS MORNING IN VERY LIGHT
SNOW. WE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ALT MINS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING AT KELM, BUT
TEND TO HANG ON ELSEWHERE THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR BY EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN BY EARLY WED.

THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 021549
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1049 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

LE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURS
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES IT GRIP OVER THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THURS NIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND MAYBE JUST
HOLD ON ENOUGH TO BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON
SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPR LVL WAVE PASSES BY...CHANCES ARE SLIM SO
KEPT 20 POPS.

TEMPS SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS SEASONAL NORM VALUES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHEST AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE AT KSYR WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PRODUCING IFR VSBYS AND BELOW ALT MINS THROUGH 20Z. BEYOND
THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY ENDS TOWARD 03Z. AT
KRME WE MAY APPROACH IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY THROUGH MID MORNING BUT THE
WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOWS JUST, JUST
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

AT KBGM AND KAVP AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE
TERMINALS PRODUCING BRIEF IFR VSBYS THIS MORNING IN VERY LIGHT
SNOW. WE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ALT MINS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING AT KELM, BUT
TEND TO HANG ON ELSEWHERE THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR BY EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN BY EARLY WED.

THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN









000
FXUS61 KBGM 021145
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

LE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURS
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES IT GRIP OVER THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THURS NIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND MAYBE JUST
HOLD ON ENOUGH TO BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON
SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPR LVL WAVE PASSES BY...CHANCES ARE SLIM SO
KEPT 20 POPS.

TEMPS SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS SEASONAL NORM VALUES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHEST AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE AT KSYR WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PRODUCING IFR VSBYS AND BELOW ALT MINS THROUGH 20Z. BEYOND
THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY ENDS TOWARD 03Z. AT
KRME WE MAY APPROACH IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY THROUGH MID MORNING BUT THE
WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOWS JUST, JUST
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

AT KBGM AND KAVP AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE
TERMINALS PRODUCING BRIEF IFR VSBYS THIS MORNING IN VERY LIGHT
SNOW. WE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ALT MINS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING AT KELM, BUT
TEND TO HANG ON ELSEWHERE THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR BY EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN BY EARLY WED.

THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 021145
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

LE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURS
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES IT GRIP OVER THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THURS NIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND MAYBE JUST
HOLD ON ENOUGH TO BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON
SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPR LVL WAVE PASSES BY...CHANCES ARE SLIM SO
KEPT 20 POPS.

TEMPS SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS SEASONAL NORM VALUES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHEST AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE AT KSYR WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PRODUCING IFR VSBYS AND BELOW ALT MINS THROUGH 20Z. BEYOND
THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY ENDS TOWARD 03Z. AT
KRME WE MAY APPROACH IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY THROUGH MID MORNING BUT THE
WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOWS JUST, JUST
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

AT KBGM AND KAVP AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE
TERMINALS PRODUCING BRIEF IFR VSBYS THIS MORNING IN VERY LIGHT
SNOW. WE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ALT MINS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING AT KELM, BUT
TEND TO HANG ON ELSEWHERE THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR BY EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN BY EARLY WED.

THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 020850
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
350 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

LE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURS
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES IT GRIP OVER THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THURS NIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND MAYBE JUST
HOLD ON ENOUGH TO BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON
SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPR LVL WAVE PASSES BY...CHANCES ARE SLIM SO
KEPT 20 POPS.

TEMPS SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS SEASONAL NORM VALUES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KRME AND KSYR, BUT SOME VARIATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE TERMINALS NOW AND THIS WILL PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AND MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 08Z. AFTER A LULL, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN
PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AGAIN TOWARD 12Z. THIS FLOW WILL FAVOR KSYR FOR
THE MOST IFR VSBYS THROUGH 20Z, BUT EVEN AT KRME SOME IFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. DUE TO THE VARIATION IN CONDITIONS,
WITH STEADY SNOW ENDING, A LULL, THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. I ELECTED
TO USE A TEMP GROUP TO SHOW THE VARIATION RIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS ASIDE FROM A STRAY FLURRY,
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. SOME LINGERING MVFR VSBYS IN HAZE
THROUGH 09Z, OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS WILL RULE THROUGH MID MORNING.
WITH INCREASING WIND THIS LOWER DECK MAY SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY MID
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KBGM AND KITH WHERE IT LINGERS
LONGER DUE TO THE ELEVATION OF THE SITE. VFR FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN BY EARLY WED.

THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 020850
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
350 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

LE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURS
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES IT GRIP OVER THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THURS NIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND MAYBE JUST
HOLD ON ENOUGH TO BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON
SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPR LVL WAVE PASSES BY...CHANCES ARE SLIM SO
KEPT 20 POPS.

TEMPS SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS SEASONAL NORM VALUES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KRME AND KSYR, BUT SOME VARIATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE TERMINALS NOW AND THIS WILL PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AND MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 08Z. AFTER A LULL, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN
PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AGAIN TOWARD 12Z. THIS FLOW WILL FAVOR KSYR FOR
THE MOST IFR VSBYS THROUGH 20Z, BUT EVEN AT KRME SOME IFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. DUE TO THE VARIATION IN CONDITIONS,
WITH STEADY SNOW ENDING, A LULL, THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. I ELECTED
TO USE A TEMP GROUP TO SHOW THE VARIATION RIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS ASIDE FROM A STRAY FLURRY,
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. SOME LINGERING MVFR VSBYS IN HAZE
THROUGH 09Z, OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS WILL RULE THROUGH MID MORNING.
WITH INCREASING WIND THIS LOWER DECK MAY SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY MID
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KBGM AND KITH WHERE IT LINGERS
LONGER DUE TO THE ELEVATION OF THE SITE. VFR FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN BY EARLY WED.

THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 020850
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
350 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

LE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURS
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES IT GRIP OVER THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THURS NIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND MAYBE JUST
HOLD ON ENOUGH TO BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON
SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPR LVL WAVE PASSES BY...CHANCES ARE SLIM SO
KEPT 20 POPS.

TEMPS SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS SEASONAL NORM VALUES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KRME AND KSYR, BUT SOME VARIATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE TERMINALS NOW AND THIS WILL PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AND MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 08Z. AFTER A LULL, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN
PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AGAIN TOWARD 12Z. THIS FLOW WILL FAVOR KSYR FOR
THE MOST IFR VSBYS THROUGH 20Z, BUT EVEN AT KRME SOME IFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. DUE TO THE VARIATION IN CONDITIONS,
WITH STEADY SNOW ENDING, A LULL, THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. I ELECTED
TO USE A TEMP GROUP TO SHOW THE VARIATION RIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS ASIDE FROM A STRAY FLURRY,
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. SOME LINGERING MVFR VSBYS IN HAZE
THROUGH 09Z, OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS WILL RULE THROUGH MID MORNING.
WITH INCREASING WIND THIS LOWER DECK MAY SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY MID
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KBGM AND KITH WHERE IT LINGERS
LONGER DUE TO THE ELEVATION OF THE SITE. VFR FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN BY EARLY WED.

THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 020850
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
350 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

LE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURS
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES IT GRIP OVER THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THURS NIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND MAYBE JUST
HOLD ON ENOUGH TO BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON
SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPR LVL WAVE PASSES BY...CHANCES ARE SLIM SO
KEPT 20 POPS.

TEMPS SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS SEASONAL NORM VALUES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KRME AND KSYR, BUT SOME VARIATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE TERMINALS NOW AND THIS WILL PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AND MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 08Z. AFTER A LULL, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN
PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AGAIN TOWARD 12Z. THIS FLOW WILL FAVOR KSYR FOR
THE MOST IFR VSBYS THROUGH 20Z, BUT EVEN AT KRME SOME IFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. DUE TO THE VARIATION IN CONDITIONS,
WITH STEADY SNOW ENDING, A LULL, THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. I ELECTED
TO USE A TEMP GROUP TO SHOW THE VARIATION RIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS ASIDE FROM A STRAY FLURRY,
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. SOME LINGERING MVFR VSBYS IN HAZE
THROUGH 09Z, OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS WILL RULE THROUGH MID MORNING.
WITH INCREASING WIND THIS LOWER DECK MAY SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY MID
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KBGM AND KITH WHERE IT LINGERS
LONGER DUE TO THE ELEVATION OF THE SITE. VFR FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN BY EARLY WED.

THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 020657
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
157 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY...IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...OUR WEATHER
THEN LOOKS MAINLY DRY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING
STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A
WINTRY MIX ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
EXITING WAVE IS TAKING DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY WITH IT...AND DRY
SLOTTING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS-FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. HAVE DROPPED STEUBEN-TIOGA NY AND
BRADFORD PA FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WHILE THE REMAINING
ADVISORY CURRENTLY RUNS TO 7 AM...ALMOST ALL OF THE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATING SNOW /JUST ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES/ WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND 2 AM. SO CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AREAWIDE.

7 PM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES COOLER THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NEW
YORK. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH NICE BATCH
OF ENHANCED SNOW ONGOING AS EXPECTED DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND
WAVES PASSING ALOFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR PD OF STEADIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH LATE THIS EVE...AS
IMPROVING UPR JET DYNAMICS COMBINE WITH THE APPROACH OF ADDITIONAL
MID-LVL S/WVS...A SFC COLD FRNT...AND THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE GOMEX (AS ILLUSTRATED BY THE LATEST
BLENDED TPW/LYRD PW DATA). WE EXPECT ANOTHER 1-3" LATE THIS AFTN
AND EVE OVER MOST OF THE ADVSY AREA...BRINGING TOTALS INTO THE
3-6" RANGE BY LTR TNT. OVER PTNS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SRN
TIER IN NY...ALTHOUGH SOME UPTICK IN SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FOR A
BRIEF TIME THIS EVE...DEEP S TO SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...AND RESULTANT LWR ACCUMS.

USING HI-RES SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY DATA AS A GUIDE...WE EXPECT
STEADIER SNOW TO END FROM W TO E...GENERALLY IN THE 03-06Z TIME
FRAME. DURG THE PRE-DAWN HRS...WE SHOULD BE LEFT MAINLY WITH
JUST LWR CLDS AND SCTD FLRYS. SNOW SHWRS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TWDS 09-12Z ACRS OUR NRN ZNS...AS LOW-LVL CAA AND
LINGERING MOISTURE ELICIT SOME RESPONSE OFF LK ONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA TUESDAY...

THE SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA NOW... WILL CREATE LE
SNOW SHOWERS IN IT`S WAKE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE FORECAST IS FOR THE STORM THAT
WILL IMPACT THE CWA ON TUESDAY.

A POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN
CO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
HEAD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN UP TO QUEBEC. THIS
TYPE OF SYSTEM IS KNOW AS A LAKE RUNNER.

THE LOW`S MID LVL WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
CWA STARTING AROUND 12Z TUESDAY AND INDUCE STRONG WAA OVER THE
REGION. BY 18Z TUES... VERY STRONG WAA WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE
REGION AS THE LOW LVL JET INCREASES TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS JET
WILL RESULT IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVR THE AREA... WHICH WILL
RESULT IN WIDE SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS OVER NY AND PA LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A QUICK BURST OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL OCCUR AS
PRECIP FIRST DEVELOPS.

HOWEVER... WITH SUCH STRONG WAA OVER THE REGION... SNOW WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
THIS WILL BE THE CASE AS SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SFC TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ON TUES/EARLY WED MORNING AND RISE ABOVE FREEZING. IN THIS
SITUATION TEMPS WILL BE DECEIVING IN THE FACT THE GROUND AND
OBJECTS NEAR THE SFC HAS BEEN SO COLD FOR SO LONG THE PRECIP MAY
STILL FREEZE ON CONTACT.... LIKE FREEZING RAIN... EVEN THOUGH THE AMBIENT
TEMP IS ABOVE FREEZING. ATTM...SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE.

THE SFC LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WED MORNING AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER. LE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FROPA. THE COLD AIR ATTENDANT WITH THE FRONT
WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOVE CREEP INTO THE REGION... THUS PRECIP
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO TRANSITION BACK TO ALL SNOW.
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LE SHOWER BEHIND THE FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

LE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURS
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES IT GRIP OVER THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THURS NIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND MAYBE JUST
HOLD ON ENOUGH TO BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON
SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPR LVL WAVE PASSES BY...CHANCES ARE SLIM SO
KEPT 20 POPS.

TEMPS SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS SEASONAL NORM VALUES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KRME AND KSYR, BUT SOME VARIATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE TERMINALS NOW AND THIS WILL PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AND MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 08Z. AFTER A LULL, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN
PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AGAIN TOWARD 12Z. THIS FLOW WILL FAVOR KSYR FOR
THE MOST IFR VSBYS THROUGH 20Z, BUT EVEN AT KRME SOME IFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. DUE TO THE VARIATION IN CONDITIONS,
WITH STEADY SNOW ENDING, A LULL, THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. I ELECTED
TO USE A TEMP GROUP TO SHOW THE VARIATION RIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS ASIDE FROM A STRAY FLURRY,
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. SOME LINGERING MVFR VSBYS IN HAZE
THROUGH 09Z, OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS WILL RULE THROUGH MID MORNING.
WITH INCREASING WIND THIS LOWER DECK MAY SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY MID
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KBGM AND KITH WHERE IT LINGERS
LONGER DUE TO THE ELEVATION OF THE SITE. VFR FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN BY EARLY WED.

THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ039-
     040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
     036-037-044>046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ/MDP
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 020657
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
157 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY...IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...OUR WEATHER
THEN LOOKS MAINLY DRY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING
STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A
WINTRY MIX ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
EXITING WAVE IS TAKING DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY WITH IT...AND DRY
SLOTTING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS-FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. HAVE DROPPED STEUBEN-TIOGA NY AND
BRADFORD PA FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WHILE THE REMAINING
ADVISORY CURRENTLY RUNS TO 7 AM...ALMOST ALL OF THE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATING SNOW /JUST ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES/ WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND 2 AM. SO CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AREAWIDE.

7 PM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES COOLER THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NEW
YORK. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH NICE BATCH
OF ENHANCED SNOW ONGOING AS EXPECTED DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND
WAVES PASSING ALOFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR PD OF STEADIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH LATE THIS EVE...AS
IMPROVING UPR JET DYNAMICS COMBINE WITH THE APPROACH OF ADDITIONAL
MID-LVL S/WVS...A SFC COLD FRNT...AND THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE GOMEX (AS ILLUSTRATED BY THE LATEST
BLENDED TPW/LYRD PW DATA). WE EXPECT ANOTHER 1-3" LATE THIS AFTN
AND EVE OVER MOST OF THE ADVSY AREA...BRINGING TOTALS INTO THE
3-6" RANGE BY LTR TNT. OVER PTNS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SRN
TIER IN NY...ALTHOUGH SOME UPTICK IN SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FOR A
BRIEF TIME THIS EVE...DEEP S TO SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...AND RESULTANT LWR ACCUMS.

USING HI-RES SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY DATA AS A GUIDE...WE EXPECT
STEADIER SNOW TO END FROM W TO E...GENERALLY IN THE 03-06Z TIME
FRAME. DURG THE PRE-DAWN HRS...WE SHOULD BE LEFT MAINLY WITH
JUST LWR CLDS AND SCTD FLRYS. SNOW SHWRS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TWDS 09-12Z ACRS OUR NRN ZNS...AS LOW-LVL CAA AND
LINGERING MOISTURE ELICIT SOME RESPONSE OFF LK ONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA TUESDAY...

THE SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA NOW... WILL CREATE LE
SNOW SHOWERS IN IT`S WAKE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE FORECAST IS FOR THE STORM THAT
WILL IMPACT THE CWA ON TUESDAY.

A POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN
CO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
HEAD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN UP TO QUEBEC. THIS
TYPE OF SYSTEM IS KNOW AS A LAKE RUNNER.

THE LOW`S MID LVL WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
CWA STARTING AROUND 12Z TUESDAY AND INDUCE STRONG WAA OVER THE
REGION. BY 18Z TUES... VERY STRONG WAA WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE
REGION AS THE LOW LVL JET INCREASES TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS JET
WILL RESULT IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVR THE AREA... WHICH WILL
RESULT IN WIDE SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS OVER NY AND PA LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A QUICK BURST OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL OCCUR AS
PRECIP FIRST DEVELOPS.

HOWEVER... WITH SUCH STRONG WAA OVER THE REGION... SNOW WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
THIS WILL BE THE CASE AS SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SFC TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ON TUES/EARLY WED MORNING AND RISE ABOVE FREEZING. IN THIS
SITUATION TEMPS WILL BE DECEIVING IN THE FACT THE GROUND AND
OBJECTS NEAR THE SFC HAS BEEN SO COLD FOR SO LONG THE PRECIP MAY
STILL FREEZE ON CONTACT.... LIKE FREEZING RAIN... EVEN THOUGH THE AMBIENT
TEMP IS ABOVE FREEZING. ATTM...SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE.

THE SFC LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WED MORNING AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER. LE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FROPA. THE COLD AIR ATTENDANT WITH THE FRONT
WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOVE CREEP INTO THE REGION... THUS PRECIP
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO TRANSITION BACK TO ALL SNOW.
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LE SHOWER BEHIND THE FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

LE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURS
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES IT GRIP OVER THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THURS NIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND MAYBE JUST
HOLD ON ENOUGH TO BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON
SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPR LVL WAVE PASSES BY...CHANCES ARE SLIM SO
KEPT 20 POPS.

TEMPS SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS SEASONAL NORM VALUES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KRME AND KSYR, BUT SOME VARIATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE TERMINALS NOW AND THIS WILL PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AND MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 08Z. AFTER A LULL, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN
PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AGAIN TOWARD 12Z. THIS FLOW WILL FAVOR KSYR FOR
THE MOST IFR VSBYS THROUGH 20Z, BUT EVEN AT KRME SOME IFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. DUE TO THE VARIATION IN CONDITIONS,
WITH STEADY SNOW ENDING, A LULL, THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. I ELECTED
TO USE A TEMP GROUP TO SHOW THE VARIATION RIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS ASIDE FROM A STRAY FLURRY,
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. SOME LINGERING MVFR VSBYS IN HAZE
THROUGH 09Z, OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS WILL RULE THROUGH MID MORNING.
WITH INCREASING WIND THIS LOWER DECK MAY SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY MID
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KBGM AND KITH WHERE IT LINGERS
LONGER DUE TO THE ELEVATION OF THE SITE. VFR FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN BY EARLY WED.

THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ039-
     040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
     036-037-044>046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ/MDP
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 020657
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
157 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY...IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...OUR WEATHER
THEN LOOKS MAINLY DRY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING
STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A
WINTRY MIX ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
EXITING WAVE IS TAKING DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY WITH IT...AND DRY
SLOTTING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS-FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. HAVE DROPPED STEUBEN-TIOGA NY AND
BRADFORD PA FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WHILE THE REMAINING
ADVISORY CURRENTLY RUNS TO 7 AM...ALMOST ALL OF THE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATING SNOW /JUST ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES/ WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND 2 AM. SO CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AREAWIDE.

7 PM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES COOLER THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NEW
YORK. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH NICE BATCH
OF ENHANCED SNOW ONGOING AS EXPECTED DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND
WAVES PASSING ALOFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR PD OF STEADIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH LATE THIS EVE...AS
IMPROVING UPR JET DYNAMICS COMBINE WITH THE APPROACH OF ADDITIONAL
MID-LVL S/WVS...A SFC COLD FRNT...AND THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE GOMEX (AS ILLUSTRATED BY THE LATEST
BLENDED TPW/LYRD PW DATA). WE EXPECT ANOTHER 1-3" LATE THIS AFTN
AND EVE OVER MOST OF THE ADVSY AREA...BRINGING TOTALS INTO THE
3-6" RANGE BY LTR TNT. OVER PTNS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SRN
TIER IN NY...ALTHOUGH SOME UPTICK IN SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FOR A
BRIEF TIME THIS EVE...DEEP S TO SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...AND RESULTANT LWR ACCUMS.

USING HI-RES SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY DATA AS A GUIDE...WE EXPECT
STEADIER SNOW TO END FROM W TO E...GENERALLY IN THE 03-06Z TIME
FRAME. DURG THE PRE-DAWN HRS...WE SHOULD BE LEFT MAINLY WITH
JUST LWR CLDS AND SCTD FLRYS. SNOW SHWRS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TWDS 09-12Z ACRS OUR NRN ZNS...AS LOW-LVL CAA AND
LINGERING MOISTURE ELICIT SOME RESPONSE OFF LK ONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA TUESDAY...

THE SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA NOW... WILL CREATE LE
SNOW SHOWERS IN IT`S WAKE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE FORECAST IS FOR THE STORM THAT
WILL IMPACT THE CWA ON TUESDAY.

A POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN
CO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
HEAD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN UP TO QUEBEC. THIS
TYPE OF SYSTEM IS KNOW AS A LAKE RUNNER.

THE LOW`S MID LVL WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
CWA STARTING AROUND 12Z TUESDAY AND INDUCE STRONG WAA OVER THE
REGION. BY 18Z TUES... VERY STRONG WAA WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE
REGION AS THE LOW LVL JET INCREASES TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS JET
WILL RESULT IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVR THE AREA... WHICH WILL
RESULT IN WIDE SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS OVER NY AND PA LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A QUICK BURST OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL OCCUR AS
PRECIP FIRST DEVELOPS.

HOWEVER... WITH SUCH STRONG WAA OVER THE REGION... SNOW WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
THIS WILL BE THE CASE AS SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SFC TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ON TUES/EARLY WED MORNING AND RISE ABOVE FREEZING. IN THIS
SITUATION TEMPS WILL BE DECEIVING IN THE FACT THE GROUND AND
OBJECTS NEAR THE SFC HAS BEEN SO COLD FOR SO LONG THE PRECIP MAY
STILL FREEZE ON CONTACT.... LIKE FREEZING RAIN... EVEN THOUGH THE AMBIENT
TEMP IS ABOVE FREEZING. ATTM...SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE.

THE SFC LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WED MORNING AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER. LE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FROPA. THE COLD AIR ATTENDANT WITH THE FRONT
WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOVE CREEP INTO THE REGION... THUS PRECIP
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO TRANSITION BACK TO ALL SNOW.
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LE SHOWER BEHIND THE FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

LE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURS
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES IT GRIP OVER THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THURS NIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND MAYBE JUST
HOLD ON ENOUGH TO BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON
SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPR LVL WAVE PASSES BY...CHANCES ARE SLIM SO
KEPT 20 POPS.

TEMPS SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS SEASONAL NORM VALUES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KRME AND KSYR, BUT SOME VARIATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE TERMINALS NOW AND THIS WILL PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AND MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 08Z. AFTER A LULL, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN
PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AGAIN TOWARD 12Z. THIS FLOW WILL FAVOR KSYR FOR
THE MOST IFR VSBYS THROUGH 20Z, BUT EVEN AT KRME SOME IFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. DUE TO THE VARIATION IN CONDITIONS,
WITH STEADY SNOW ENDING, A LULL, THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. I ELECTED
TO USE A TEMP GROUP TO SHOW THE VARIATION RIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS ASIDE FROM A STRAY FLURRY,
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. SOME LINGERING MVFR VSBYS IN HAZE
THROUGH 09Z, OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS WILL RULE THROUGH MID MORNING.
WITH INCREASING WIND THIS LOWER DECK MAY SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY MID
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KBGM AND KITH WHERE IT LINGERS
LONGER DUE TO THE ELEVATION OF THE SITE. VFR FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN BY EARLY WED.

THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ039-
     040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
     036-037-044>046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ/MDP
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 020657
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
157 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY...IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...OUR WEATHER
THEN LOOKS MAINLY DRY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING
STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A
WINTRY MIX ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
EXITING WAVE IS TAKING DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY WITH IT...AND DRY
SLOTTING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS-FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. HAVE DROPPED STEUBEN-TIOGA NY AND
BRADFORD PA FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WHILE THE REMAINING
ADVISORY CURRENTLY RUNS TO 7 AM...ALMOST ALL OF THE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATING SNOW /JUST ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES/ WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND 2 AM. SO CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AREAWIDE.

7 PM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES COOLER THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NEW
YORK. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH NICE BATCH
OF ENHANCED SNOW ONGOING AS EXPECTED DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND
WAVES PASSING ALOFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR PD OF STEADIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH LATE THIS EVE...AS
IMPROVING UPR JET DYNAMICS COMBINE WITH THE APPROACH OF ADDITIONAL
MID-LVL S/WVS...A SFC COLD FRNT...AND THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE GOMEX (AS ILLUSTRATED BY THE LATEST
BLENDED TPW/LYRD PW DATA). WE EXPECT ANOTHER 1-3" LATE THIS AFTN
AND EVE OVER MOST OF THE ADVSY AREA...BRINGING TOTALS INTO THE
3-6" RANGE BY LTR TNT. OVER PTNS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SRN
TIER IN NY...ALTHOUGH SOME UPTICK IN SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FOR A
BRIEF TIME THIS EVE...DEEP S TO SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...AND RESULTANT LWR ACCUMS.

USING HI-RES SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY DATA AS A GUIDE...WE EXPECT
STEADIER SNOW TO END FROM W TO E...GENERALLY IN THE 03-06Z TIME
FRAME. DURG THE PRE-DAWN HRS...WE SHOULD BE LEFT MAINLY WITH
JUST LWR CLDS AND SCTD FLRYS. SNOW SHWRS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TWDS 09-12Z ACRS OUR NRN ZNS...AS LOW-LVL CAA AND
LINGERING MOISTURE ELICIT SOME RESPONSE OFF LK ONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA TUESDAY...

THE SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA NOW... WILL CREATE LE
SNOW SHOWERS IN IT`S WAKE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE FORECAST IS FOR THE STORM THAT
WILL IMPACT THE CWA ON TUESDAY.

A POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN
CO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
HEAD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN UP TO QUEBEC. THIS
TYPE OF SYSTEM IS KNOW AS A LAKE RUNNER.

THE LOW`S MID LVL WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
CWA STARTING AROUND 12Z TUESDAY AND INDUCE STRONG WAA OVER THE
REGION. BY 18Z TUES... VERY STRONG WAA WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE
REGION AS THE LOW LVL JET INCREASES TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS JET
WILL RESULT IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVR THE AREA... WHICH WILL
RESULT IN WIDE SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS OVER NY AND PA LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A QUICK BURST OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL OCCUR AS
PRECIP FIRST DEVELOPS.

HOWEVER... WITH SUCH STRONG WAA OVER THE REGION... SNOW WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
THIS WILL BE THE CASE AS SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SFC TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ON TUES/EARLY WED MORNING AND RISE ABOVE FREEZING. IN THIS
SITUATION TEMPS WILL BE DECEIVING IN THE FACT THE GROUND AND
OBJECTS NEAR THE SFC HAS BEEN SO COLD FOR SO LONG THE PRECIP MAY
STILL FREEZE ON CONTACT.... LIKE FREEZING RAIN... EVEN THOUGH THE AMBIENT
TEMP IS ABOVE FREEZING. ATTM...SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE.

THE SFC LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WED MORNING AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER. LE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FROPA. THE COLD AIR ATTENDANT WITH THE FRONT
WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOVE CREEP INTO THE REGION... THUS PRECIP
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO TRANSITION BACK TO ALL SNOW.
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LE SHOWER BEHIND THE FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

LE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURS
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES IT GRIP OVER THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THURS NIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND MAYBE JUST
HOLD ON ENOUGH TO BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON
SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPR LVL WAVE PASSES BY...CHANCES ARE SLIM SO
KEPT 20 POPS.

TEMPS SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS SEASONAL NORM VALUES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KRME AND KSYR, BUT SOME VARIATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE TERMINALS NOW AND THIS WILL PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AND MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 08Z. AFTER A LULL, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN
PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AGAIN TOWARD 12Z. THIS FLOW WILL FAVOR KSYR FOR
THE MOST IFR VSBYS THROUGH 20Z, BUT EVEN AT KRME SOME IFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. DUE TO THE VARIATION IN CONDITIONS,
WITH STEADY SNOW ENDING, A LULL, THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. I ELECTED
TO USE A TEMP GROUP TO SHOW THE VARIATION RIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS ASIDE FROM A STRAY FLURRY,
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. SOME LINGERING MVFR VSBYS IN HAZE
THROUGH 09Z, OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS WILL RULE THROUGH MID MORNING.
WITH INCREASING WIND THIS LOWER DECK MAY SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY MID
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KBGM AND KITH WHERE IT LINGERS
LONGER DUE TO THE ELEVATION OF THE SITE. VFR FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN BY EARLY WED.

THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ039-
     040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
     036-037-044>046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ/MDP
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities