Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KBGM 241050
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
650 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO
SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ENTIRE COLUMN. WAA
ALOFT AS AN UL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HIGH TEMPS WARMER BUT STILL ONLY IN THE 50S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING
TO AROUND 0C. AFTER THE LL INVERSION BREAKS BY 10 AM WILL BE WELL
MIXED. BOMBING LOW MOVING SLOWLY PAST NOVA SCOTIA TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BE SUSTAINED
AT 20 TO 25 WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S. JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ENOUGH WIND FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. SEE DETAILS BELOW.

TONIGHT UNDER A NORTH TO SOUTH STRETCHED SURFACE HIGH. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO COME IN AHEAD OF A
STRONG STACKED LOW MOVING EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ADVANCE OF A STRONG SFC LOW ON FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 60S BUT MAY NEED TO BE RAISED SOME MORE
IF MODELS SLOW DOWN CLOUDS. DELAYED POPS UNTIL AFTN AND MIGHT NOT
START ALONG I81 UNTIL SUNSET. STRONG STACKED LOW MOVES EAST INTO
OHIO DURING THE AFTN. THE BEST PRECIP WILL BE FRI NGT AS THE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS ERN PA WITH AN INVERTED TROF ACROSS NY. PWATS RETURN
TO AROUND 1 INCH...BUT RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN UNDER HALF AN INCH.
DEEP LIFT BUT LL INSTABILITY NIL SO CONVECTION WILL BE WEAK WITH
NO TSTORMS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SURFACE LOW BOMBS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE LOW WILL WRAP MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH THE BEST AMOUNTS IN NY.

SAT NGT SHOWERS START TO PULL OUT WITH THE BEST CHC IN THE FAR NE.
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING WITH CAA. RAIN SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE NEXT TO NOTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS AND CAPPED POPS IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW.

315 PM WED UPDATE... OUR NWP SUITE HAS REACHED A DECENT CONSENSUS
WITH TDY`S 12Z RUN IN THE MED RNG PD...AT LEAST IN THE BIG
PICTURE. ON THE LARGE-SCALE...AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL RIDGING IS PROGGED
TO EXPAND FROM CNTRL CANADA NEWD TWDS GREENLAND...WITH A
LARGE...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FORMING UNDERNEATH THIS BLOCKING
RIDGE...AND TAKING UP RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE
DEVIL...OF COURSE...WILL BE IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE EXACT
POSITIONING OF THIS UPPER LOW DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WX.

ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY
GOOD...THE EC APPEARS TO BE FARTHER W WITH THE POSITION OF THE
DEEP UPPER LOW (MS VLY) NEXT WEEK...VERSUS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS (OH
VLY OR MID-ATL RGN). FOR NOW...WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TWDS THE
GFS...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL FIRST BRING IN A
CHC OF SHWRS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN
LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE PD. IF THE EC SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
MORE CORRECT...THEN PCPN COULD HOLD OFF LONGER (PERHAPS TWDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BLO CLIMO FOR LATE APR (HIGHS IN
THE 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH JUST SCATTERED CI TODAY AND INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING BY MID MORNING TO 12-18
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 22-28 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASING QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO 5-8 KNOTS THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
3 AM UPDATE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING IN THE SAME AREA. FURTHER
WEST THE WINDS WILL BE JUST UNDER CRITERIA. IN THE FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE ABOVE A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE LAST
5 DAYS. TODAY MIN RH FALLS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. 10 HOUR FUELS
WILL FALL TO UNDER 10 PERCENT. WINDS WILL PICK UP BETWEEN 8 AND 10
AM AND CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE AFTN. WINDS START TO DROP
ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES AND CENT SRN TIER MID AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

TONIGHT WINDS DROP TO UNDER 10 MPH AND DO NOT RETURN TO THE SAME
STRENGTH AS TODAY UNTIL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MIN RH FRIDAY AFTN
DOES FALL TO UNDER 30 PERCENT BUT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN LATE
IN THE DAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING THE
WEEKEND THREAT LOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ045-046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 240830
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
430 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO
SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ENTIRE COLUMN. WAA
ALOFT AS AN UL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HIGH TEMPS WARMER BUT STILL ONLY IN THE 50S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING
TO AROUND 0C. AFTER THE LL INVERSION BREAKS BY 10 AM WILL BE WELL
MIXED. BOMBING LOW MOVING SLOWLY PAST NOVA SCOTIA TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BE SUSTAINED
AT 20 TO 25 WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S. JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ENOUGH WIND FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. SEE DETAILS BELOW.

TONIGHT UNDER A NORTH TO SOUTH STRETCHED SURFACE HIGH. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO COME IN AHEAD OF A
STRONG STACKED LOW MOVING EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ADVANCE OF A STRONG SFC LOW ON FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 60S BUT MAY NEED TO BE RAISED SOME MORE
IF MODELS SLOW DOWN CLOUDS. DELAYED POPS UNTIL AFTN AND MIGHT NOT
START ALONG I81 UNTIL SUNSET. STRONG STACKED LOW MOVES EAST INTO
OHIO DURING THE AFTN. THE BEST PRECIP WILL BE FRI NGT AS THE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS ERN PA WITH AN INVERTED TROF ACROSS NY. PWATS RETURN
TO AROUND 1 INCH...BUT RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN UNDER HALF AN INCH.
DEEP LIFT BUT LL INSTABILITY NIL SO CONVECTION WILL BE WEAK WITH
NO TSTORMS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SURFACE LOW BOMBS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE LOW WILL WRAP MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH THE BEST AMOUNTS IN NY.

SAT NGT SHOWERS START TO PULL OUT WITH THE BEST CHC IN THE FAR NE.
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING WITH CAA. RAIN SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE NEXT TO NOTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS AND CAPPED POPS IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW.

315 PM WED UPDATE... OUR NWP SUITE HAS REACHED A DECENT CONSENSUS
WITH TDY`S 12Z RUN IN THE MED RNG PD...AT LEAST IN THE BIG
PICTURE. ON THE LARGE-SCALE...AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL RIDGING IS PROGGED
TO EXPAND FROM CNTRL CANADA NEWD TWDS GREENLAND...WITH A
LARGE...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FORMING UNDERNEATH THIS BLOCKING
RIDGE...AND TAKING UP RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE
DEVIL...OF COURSE...WILL BE IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE EXACT
POSITIONING OF THIS UPPER LOW DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WX.

ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY
GOOD...THE EC APPEARS TO BE FARTHER W WITH THE POSITION OF THE
DEEP UPPER LOW (MS VLY) NEXT WEEK...VERSUS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS (OH
VLY OR MID-ATL RGN). FOR NOW...WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TWDS THE
GFS...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL FIRST BRING IN A
CHC OF SHWRS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN
LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE PD. IF THE EC SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
MORE CORRECT...THEN PCPN COULD HOLD OFF LONGER (PERHAPS TWDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BLO CLIMO FOR LATE APR (HIGHS IN
THE 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH JUST SCATTERED CI.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING BY MID MORNING TO 12-18
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 22-28 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASING QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...VFR.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
3 AM UPDATE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING IN THE SAME AREA. FURTHER
WEST THE WINDS WILL BE JUST UNDER CRITERIA. IN THE FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE ABOVE A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE LAST
5 DAYS. TODAY MIN RH FALLS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. 10 HOUR FUELS
WILL FALL TO UNDER 10 PERCENT. WINDS WILL PICK UP BETWEEN 8 AND 10
AM AND CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE AFTN. WINDS START TO DROP
ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES AND CENT SRN TIER MID AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

TONIGHT WINDS DROP TO UNDER 10 MPH AND DO NOT RETURN TO THE SAME
STRENGTH AS TODAY UNTIL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MIN RH FRIDAY AFTN
DOES FALL TO UNDER 30 PERCENT BUT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN LATE
IN THE DAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING THE
WEEKEND THREAT LOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ045-046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 240705
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
305 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
640 PM UPDATE...CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES. RESIDUAL SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE SUSQ RGN AND
WRN CATSKILLS ARE DSPTNG. EROSION OF CLDS MAY SLOW ACRS CNTRL NY
THIS EVNG...BUT OVERALL CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE TREND. MINOR
TWEEKS TO CRNT FCST. PREV BLO...

230 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS NY AND PA AS EXPECTED. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1100 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING... AND AS A RESULT THE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE DRY
AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC... THE UPPR LVL ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER MAINE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE MSLP TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE
GUSTY WINDS BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE TRUE DRY AIR TO
MOVE IN.

TONIGHT... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BREEZY AS THE MSLP WILL
STILL KEEP TIGHT AND DUE TO CAA THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR -6
C. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY EVENING. THE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START CHILLY AND DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT START TO QUICKLY WARM IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC
RIDGE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST... HOWEVER WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN BREEZY WELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FORE MORE INFORMATION ON FIRE WEATHER PLEASE SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
THURS NIGHT THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST AND DOMINATE
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN RESULTING IN A QUITE A
NICE EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A SFC LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW WITH NW SFC FLOW THROUGH SAT... RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWER POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS AND CAPPED POPS IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW.

315 PM WED UPDATE... OUR NWP SUITE HAS REACHED A DECENT CONSENSUS
WITH TDY`S 12Z RUN IN THE MED RNG PD...AT LEAST IN THE BIG
PICTURE. ON THE LARGE-SCALE...AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL RIDGING IS PROGGED
TO EXPAND FROM CNTRL CANADA NEWD TWDS GREENLAND...WITH A
LARGE...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FORMING UNDERNEATH THIS BLOCKING
RIDGE...AND TAKING UP RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE
DEVIL...OF COURSE...WILL BE IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE EXACT
POSITIONING OF THIS UPPER LOW DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WX.

ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY
GOOD...THE EC APPEARS TO BE FARTHER W WITH THE POSITION OF THE
DEEP UPPER LOW (MS VLY) NEXT WEEK...VERSUS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS (OH
VLY OR MID-ATL RGN). FOR NOW...WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TWDS THE
GFS...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL FIRST BRING IN A
CHC OF SHWRS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN
LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE PD. IF THE EC SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
MORE CORRECT...THEN PCPN COULD HOLD OFF LONGER (PERHAPS TWDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BLO CLIMO FOR LATE APR (HIGHS IN
THE 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH JUST SCATTERED CI.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING BY MID MORNING TO 12-18
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 22-28 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASING QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...VFR.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
715 PM UPDATE...UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AS WE
EXPECT NO MAJOR CHGS IN THE GUIDANCE FOR TMRW...WHICH SHOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE WATCH AREA. MID SHIFT MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER EXPANDING THE WARNING AS A FEW OTHER COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH CRITIERA. PREV BLO...


230 PM EDT UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END TODAY AS DRY AIR IS SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO TAKE GRIP OF THE REGION. DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND MAY PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL AS LOW AS
15 PERCENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT REASON. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT EVENING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ045-046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 240539
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
139 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES. RESIDUAL SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE SUSQ RGN AND
WRN CATSKILLS ARE DSPTNG. EROSION OF CLDS MAY SLOW ACRS CNTRL NY
THIS EVNG...BUT OVERALL CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE TREND. MINOR
TWEEKS TO CRNT FCST. PREV BLO...

230 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS NY AND PA AS EXPECTED. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1100 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING... AND AS A RESULT THE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE DRY
AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC... THE UPPR LVL ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER MAINE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE MSLP TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE
GUSTY WINDS BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE TRUE DRY AIR TO
MOVE IN.

TONIGHT... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BREEZY AS THE MSLP WILL
STILL KEEP TIGHT AND DUE TO CAA THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR -6
C. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY EVENING. THE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START CHILLY AND DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT START TO QUICKLY WARM IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC
RIDGE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST... HOWEVER WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN BREEZY WELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FORE MORE INFORMATION ON FIRE WEATHER PLEASE SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
THURS NIGHT THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST AND DOMINATE
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN RESULTING IN A QUITE A
NICE EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A SFC LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW WITH NW SFC FLOW THROUGH SAT... RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWER POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
315 PM WED UPDATE... OUR NWP SUITE HAS REACHED A DECENT CONSENSUS
WITH TDY`S 12Z RUN IN THE MED RNG PD...AT LEAST IN THE BIG PICTURE. ON
THE LARGE-SCALE...AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
FROM CNTRL CANADA NEWD TWDS GREENLAND...WITH A LARGE...SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW FORMING UNDERNEATH THIS BLOCKING RIDGE...AND TAKING UP
RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE DEVIL...OF
COURSE...WILL BE IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE EXACT POSITIONING OF
THIS UPPER LOW DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WX.

ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY
GOOD...THE EC APPEARS TO BE FARTHER W WITH THE POSITION OF THE
DEEP UPPER LOW (MS VLY) NEXT WEEK...VERSUS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS (OH
VLY OR MID-ATL RGN). FOR NOW...WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TWDS THE
GFS...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL FIRST BRING IN A
CHC OF SHWRS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN
LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE PD. IF THE EC SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
MORE CORRECT...THEN PCPN COULD HOLD OFF LONGER (PERHAPS TWDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BLO CLIMO FOR LATE APR (HIGHS IN
THE 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH JUST SCATTERED CI.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING BY MID MORNING TO 12-18
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 22-28 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASING QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...VFR.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
715 PM UPDATE...UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AS WE
EXPECT NO MAJOR CHGS IN THE GUIDANCE FOR TMRW...WHICH SHOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE WATCH AREA. MID SHIFT MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER EXPANDING THE WARNING AS A FEW OTHER COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH CRITIERA. PREV BLO...


230 PM EDT UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END TODAY AS DRY AIR IS SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO TAKE GRIP OF THE REGION. DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND MAY PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL AS LOW AS
15 PERCENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT REASON. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT EVENING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ045-046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 232346
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
746 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES. RESIDUAL SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE SUSQ RGN AND
WRN CATSKILLS ARE DSPTNG. EROSION OF CLDS MAY SLOW ACRS CNTRL NY
THIS EVNG...BUT OVERALL CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE TREND. MINOR
TWEEKS TO CRNT FCST. PREV BLO...

230 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS NY AND PA AS EXPECTED. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1100 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING... AND AS A RESULT THE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE DRY
AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC... THE UPPR LVL ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER MAINE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE MSLP TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE
GUSTY WINDS BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE TRUE DRY AIR TO
MOVE IN.

TONIGHT... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BREEZY AS THE MSLP WILL
STILL KEEP TIGHT AND DUE TO CAA THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR -6
C. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY EVENING. THE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START CHILLY AND DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT START TO QUICKLY WARM IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC
RIDGE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST... HOWEVER WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN BREEZY WELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FORE MORE INFORMATION ON FIRE WEATHER PLEASE SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
THURS NIGHT THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST AND DOMINATE
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN RESULTING IN A QUITE A
NICE EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A SFC LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW WITH NW SFC FLOW THROUGH SAT... RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWER POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
315 PM WED UPDATE... OUR NWP SUITE HAS REACHED A DECENT CONSENSUS
WITH TDY`S 12Z RUN IN THE MED RNG PD...AT LEAST IN THE BIG PICTURE. ON
THE LARGE-SCALE...AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
FROM CNTRL CANADA NEWD TWDS GREENLAND...WITH A LARGE...SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW FORMING UNDERNEATH THIS BLOCKING RIDGE...AND TAKING UP
RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE DEVIL...OF
COURSE...WILL BE IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE EXACT POSITIONING OF
THIS UPPER LOW DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WX.

ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY
GOOD...THE EC APPEARS TO BE FARTHER W WITH THE POSITION OF THE
DEEP UPPER LOW (MS VLY) NEXT WEEK...VERSUS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS (OH
VLY OR MID-ATL RGN). FOR NOW...WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TWDS THE
GFS...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL FIRST BRING IN A
CHC OF SHWRS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN
LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE PD. IF THE EC SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
MORE CORRECT...THEN PCPN COULD HOLD OFF LONGER (PERHAPS TWDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BLO CLIMO FOR LATE APR (HIGHS IN
THE 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATED AT 00Z... BKN-OVC CIGS FROM 3-6 KFT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALL AREAS BY
03Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BE W-NW AT 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI INTO SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

LTR SAT THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
715 PM UPDATE...UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AS WE
EXPECT NO MAJOR CHGS IN THE GUIDANCE FOR TMRW...WHICH SHOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE WATCH AREA. MID SHIFT MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER EXPANDING THE WARNING AS A FEW OTHER COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH CRITIERA. PREV BLO...


230 PM EDT UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END TODAY AS DRY AIR IS SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO TAKE GRIP OF THE REGION. DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND MAY PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL AS LOW AS
15 PERCENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT REASON. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT EVENING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-
     040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-
     046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/MSE
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 232337
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
737 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS COLD AND DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE PRESSURE WILL BE TIGHT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AGAIN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES. RESIDUAL SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE SUSQ RGN AND
WRN CATSKILLS ARE DSPTNG. EROSION OF CLDS MAY SLOW ACRS CNTRL NY
THIS EVNG...BUT OVERALL CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE TREND. MINOR
TWEEKS TO CRNT FCST. PREV BLO...

230 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS NY AND PA AS EXPECTED. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1100 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING... AND AS A RESULT THE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE DRY
AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC... THE UPPR LVL ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER MAINE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE MSLP TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE
GUSTY WINDS BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE TRUE DRY AIR TO
MOVE IN.

TONIGHT... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BREEZY AS THE MSLP WILL
STILL KEEP TIGHT AND DUE TO CAA THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR -6
C. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY EVENING. THE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START CHILLY AND DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT START TO QUICKLY WARM IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC
RIDGE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST... HOWEVER WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN BREEZY WELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FORE MORE INFORMATION ON FIRE WEATHER PLEASE SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
THURS NIGHT THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST AND DOMINATE
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN RESULTING IN A QUITE A
NICE EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A SFC LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW WITH NW SFC FLOW THROUGH SAT... RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWER POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
315 PM WED UPDATE... OUR NWP SUITE HAS REACHED A DECENT CONSENSUS
WITH TDY`S 12Z RUN IN THE MED RNG PD...AT LEAST IN THE BIG PICTURE. ON
THE LARGE-SCALE...AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
FROM CNTRL CANADA NEWD TWDS GREENLAND...WITH A LARGE...SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW FORMING UNDERNEATH THIS BLOCKING RIDGE...AND TAKING UP
RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE DEVIL...OF
COURSE...WILL BE IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE EXACT POSITIONING OF
THIS UPPER LOW DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WX.

ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY
GOOD...THE EC APPEARS TO BE FARTHER W WITH THE POSITION OF THE
DEEP UPPER LOW (MS VLY) NEXT WEEK...VERSUS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS (OH
VLY OR MID-ATL RGN). FOR NOW...WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TWDS THE
GFS...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL FIRST BRING IN A
CHC OF SHWRS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN
LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE PD. IF THE EC SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
MORE CORRECT...THEN PCPN COULD HOLD OFF LONGER (PERHAPS TWDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BLO CLIMO FOR LATE APR (HIGHS IN
THE 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATED AT 00Z... BKN-OVC CIGS FROM 3-6 KFT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALL AREAS BY
03Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BE W-NW AT 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI INTO SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

LTR SAT THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
715 PM UPDATE...UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AS WE
EXPECT NO MAJOR CHGS IN THE GUIDANCE FOR TMRW...WHICH SHOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE WATCH AREA. MID SHIFT MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER EXPANDING THE WARNING AS A FEW OTHER COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH CRITIERA. PREV BLO...


230 PM EDT UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END TODAY AS DRY AIR IS SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO TAKE GRIP OF THE REGION. DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND MAY PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL AS LOW AS
15 PERCENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT REASON. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT EVENING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-
     040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-
     046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/MSE
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 232318
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
718 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS COLD AND DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE PRESSURE WILL BE TIGHT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AGAIN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES. RESIDUAL SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE SUSQ RGN AND
WRN CATSKILLS ARE DSPTNG. EROSION OF CLDS MAY SLOW ACRS CNTRL NY
THIS EVNG...BUT OVERALL CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE TREND. MINOR
TWEEKS TO CRNT FCST. PREV BLO...

230 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS NY AND PA AS EXPECTED. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1100 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING... AND AS A RESULT THE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE DRY
AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC... THE UPPR LVL ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER MAINE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE MSLP TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE
GUSTY WINDS BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE TRUE DRY AIR TO
MOVE IN.

TONIGHT... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BREEZY AS THE MSLP WILL
STILL KEEP TIGHT AND DUE TO CAA THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR -6
C. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY EVENING. THE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START CHILLY AND DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT START TO QUICKLY WARM IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC
RIDGE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST... HOWEVER WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN BREEZY WELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FORE MORE INFORMATION ON FIRE WEATHER PLEASE SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
THURS NIGHT THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST AND DOMINATE
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN RESULTING IN A QUITE A
NICE EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A SFC LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW WITH NW SFC FLOW THROUGH SAT... RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWER POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
315 PM WED UPDATE... OUR NWP SUITE HAS REACHED A DECENT CONSENSUS
WITH TDY`S 12Z RUN IN THE MED RNG PD...AT LEAST IN THE BIG PICTURE. ON
THE LARGE-SCALE...AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
FROM CNTRL CANADA NEWD TWDS GREENLAND...WITH A LARGE...SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW FORMING UNDERNEATH THIS BLOCKING RIDGE...AND TAKING UP
RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE DEVIL...OF
COURSE...WILL BE IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE EXACT POSITIONING OF
THIS UPPER LOW DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WX.

ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY
GOOD...THE EC APPEARS TO BE FARTHER W WITH THE POSITION OF THE
DEEP UPPER LOW (MS VLY) NEXT WEEK...VERSUS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS (OH
VLY OR MID-ATL RGN). FOR NOW...WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TWDS THE
GFS...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL FIRST BRING IN A
CHC OF SHWRS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN
LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE PD. IF THE EC SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
MORE CORRECT...THEN PCPN COULD HOLD OFF LONGER (PERHAPS TWDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BLO CLIMO FOR LATE APR (HIGHS IN
THE 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE... AT LEAST OCNL IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTN AT KITH/KBGM...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS
ELSEWHERE.

THIS EVE (02-04Z)...DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
RGN FROM THE W...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND A RETURN TO VFR RGN-
WIDE.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT LTR THIS EVE (02-04Z)...BEFORE
PICKING UP...AND BCMG GUSTY AGN THU MRNG (AFTER 12-13Z).

OUTLOOK...

THU INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI INTO SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

LTR SAT THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
715 PM UPDATE...UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AS WE
EXPECT NO MAJOR CHGS IN THE GUIDANCE FOR TMRW...WHICH SHOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE WATCH AREA. MID SHIFT MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER EXPANDING THE WARNING AS A FEW OTHER COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH CRITIERA. PREV BLO...


230 PM EDT UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END TODAY AS DRY AIR IS SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO TAKE GRIP OF THE REGION. DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND MAY PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL AS LOW AS
15 PERCENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT REASON. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT EVENING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-
     040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-
     046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 232242
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
642 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS COLD AND DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE PRESSURE WILL BE TIGHT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AGAIN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

640 PM UPDATE...CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES. RESIDUAL SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE SUSQ RGN AND
WRN CATSKILLS ARE DSPTNG. EROSION OF CLDS MAY SLOW ACRS CNTRL NY
THIS EVNG...BUT OVERALL CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE TREND. MINOR
TWEEKS TO CRNT FCST. PREV BLO...

230 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS NY AND PA AS EXPECTED. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1100 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING... AND AS A RESULT THE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE DRY
AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC... THE UPPR LVL ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER MAINE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE MSLP TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE
GUSTY WINDS BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE TRUE DRY AIR TO
MOVE IN.

TONIGHT... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BREEZY AS THE MSLP WILL
STILL KEEP TIGHT AND DUE TO CAA THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR -6
C. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY EVENING. THE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START CHILLY AND DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT START TO QUICKLY WARM IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC
RIDGE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST... HOWEVER WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN BREEZY WELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FORE MORE INFORMATION ON FIRE WEATHER PLEASE SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
THURS NIGHT THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST AND DOMINATE
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN RESULTING IN A QUITE A
NICE EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A SFC LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW WITH NW SFC FLOW THROUGH SAT... RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWER POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
315 PM WED UPDATE... OUR NWP SUITE HAS REACHED A DECENT CONSENSUS
WITH TDY`S 12Z RUN IN THE MED RNG PD...AT LEAST IN THE BIG PICTURE. ON
THE LARGE-SCALE...AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
FROM CNTRL CANADA NEWD TWDS GREENLAND...WITH A LARGE...SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW FORMING UNDERNEATH THIS BLOCKING RIDGE...AND TAKING UP
RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE DEVIL...OF
COURSE...WILL BE IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE EXACT POSITIONING OF
THIS UPPER LOW DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WX.

ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY
GOOD...THE EC APPEARS TO BE FARTHER W WITH THE POSITION OF THE
DEEP UPPER LOW (MS VLY) NEXT WEEK...VERSUS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS (OH
VLY OR MID-ATL RGN). FOR NOW...WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TWDS THE
GFS...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL FIRST BRING IN A
CHC OF SHWRS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN
LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE PD. IF THE EC SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
MORE CORRECT...THEN PCPN COULD HOLD OFF LONGER (PERHAPS TWDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BLO CLIMO FOR LATE APR (HIGHS IN
THE 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE... AT LEAST OCNL IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTN AT KITH/KBGM...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS
ELSEWHERE.

THIS EVE (02-04Z)...DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
RGN FROM THE W...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND A RETURN TO VFR RGN-
WIDE.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT LTR THIS EVE (02-04Z)...BEFORE
PICKING UP...AND BCMG GUSTY AGN THU MRNG (AFTER 12-13Z).

OUTLOOK...

THU INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI INTO SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

LTR SAT THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END TODAY AS DRY AIR IS SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO TAKE GRIP OF THE REGION. DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND MAY PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL AS LOW AS
15 PERCENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT REASON. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT EVENING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ045-046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231920
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS COLD AND DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE PRESSURE WILL BE TIGHT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AGAIN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS NY AND PA AS EXPECTED. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1100 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING... AND AS A RESULT THE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE DRY
AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC... THE UPPR LVL ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER MAINE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE MSLP TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE
GUSTY WINDS BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE TRUE DRY AIR TO
MOVE IN.

TONIGHT... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BREEZY AS THE MSLP WILL
STILL KEEP TIGHT AND DUE TO CAA THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR -6
C. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY EVENING. THE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START CHILLY AND DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT START TO QUICKLY WARM IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC
RIDGE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST... HOWEVER WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN BREEZY WELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FORE MORE INFORMATION ON FIRE WEATHER PLEASE SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
THURS NIGHT THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST AND DOMINATE
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN RESULTING IN A QUITE A
NICE EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A SFC LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW WITH NW SFC FLOW THROUGH SAT... RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWER POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
315 PM WED UPDATE... OUR NWP SUITE HAS REACHED A DECENT CONSENSUS
WITH TDY`S 12Z RUN IN THE MED RNG PD...AT LEAST IN THE BIG PICTURE. ON
THE LARGE-SCALE...AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
FROM CNTRL CANADA NEWD TWDS GREENLAND...WITH A LARGE...SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW FORMING UNDERNEATH THIS BLOCKING RIDGE...AND TAKING UP
RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE DEVIL...OF
COURSE...WILL BE IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE EXACT POSITIONING OF
THIS UPPER LOW DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WX.

ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY
GOOD...THE EC APPEARS TO BE FARTHER W WITH THE POSITION OF THE
DEEP UPPER LOW (MS VLY) NEXT WEEK...VERSUS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS (OH
VLY OR MID-ATL RGN). FOR NOW...WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TWDS THE
GFS...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL FIRST BRING IN A
CHC OF SHWRS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN
LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE PD. IF THE EC SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
MORE CORRECT...THEN PCPN COULD HOLD OFF LONGER (PERHAPS TWDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BLO CLIMO FOR LATE APR (HIGHS IN
THE 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE... AT LEAST OCNL IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTN AT KITH/KBGM...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS
ELSEWHERE.

THIS EVE (02-04Z)...DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
RGN FROM THE W...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND A RETURN TO VFR RGN-
WIDE.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT LTR THIS EVE (02-04Z)...BEFORE
PICKING UP...AND BCMG GUSTY AGN THU MRNG (AFTER 12-13Z).

OUTLOOK...

THU INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI INTO SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

LTR SAT THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END TODAY AS DRY AIR IS SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO TAKE GRIP OF THE REGION. DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND MAY PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL AS LOW AS
15 PERCENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT REASON. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT EVENING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ045-046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231832
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
232 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS COLD AND DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE PRESSURE WILL BE TIGHT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AGAIN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS NY AND PA AS EXPECTED. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1100 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING... AND AS A RESULT THE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE DRY
AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC... THE UPPR LVL ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER MAINE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE MSLP TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE
GUSTY WINDS BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE TRUE DRY AIR TO
MOVE IN.

TONIGHT... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BREEZY AS THE MSLP WILL
STILL KEEP TIGHT AND DUE TO CAA THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR -6
C. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY EVENING. THE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START CHILLY AND DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT START TO QUICKLY WARM IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC
RIDGE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST... HOWEVER WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN BREEZY WELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FORE MORE INFORMATION ON FIRE WEATHER PLEASE SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
THURS NIGHT THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST AND DOMINATE
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN RESULTING IN A QUITE A
NICE EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A SFC LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW WITH NW SFC FLOW THROUGH SAT... RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWER POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
415 EDT AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SLOW ARRIVAL OF OCCLUDED FRONT
FRIDAY...CONNECTED WELL UPSTREAM TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. NO
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUS NO THUNDER POTENTIAL...AND RAIN AMOUNTS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...PERHAPS ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO.

MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY...PUSHED BY A WAVE ROUNDING THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD YIELD SOME SHOWERS...AND I SIDED WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR
POPS IN CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE...HIGHEST NORTH. SECONDARY FRONT
WITH A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MODELS EXHIBIT UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ECMWF ORIENTING A VERY NEGATIVELY
TILTED AXIS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...VERSUS THE GFS WITH
A LARGE STACKED CUTOFF LOW ENCOMPASSING MORE OF THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW MORE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET
ALSO POTENTIAL RAIN FROM BAROCLINIC ZONE. GFS ONLY SLIGHT GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET ALSO MAINLY DRY AS WE GET INTO
UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST CUTOFF LOW...AND ANOTHER LARGE
ONE IN THE MIDWEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...I WENT LOWER THAN WPC
GUIDANCE BY ONLY INTRODUCING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE... AT LEAST OCNL IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTN AT KITH/KBGM...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS
ELSEWHERE.

THIS EVE (02-04Z)...DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
RGN FROM THE W...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND A RETURN TO VFR RGN-
WIDE.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT LTR THIS EVE (02-04Z)...BEFORE
PICKING UP...AND BCMG GUSTY AGN THU MRNG (AFTER 12-13Z).

OUTLOOK...

THU INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI INTO SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

LTR SAT THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END TODAY AS DRY AIR IS SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO TAKE GRIP OF THE REGION. DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND MAY PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL AS LOW AS
15 PERCENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT REASON. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT EVENING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ045-046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MLJ
FIRE WEATHER...KAH









000
FXUS61 KBGM 231733
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
133 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS COLD AND DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE PRESSURE WILL BE TIGHT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AGAIN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1100 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING... AND AS A RESULT THE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE DRY
AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC... THE UPPR LVL ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER MAINE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE MSLP TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE
GUSTY WINDS BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE TRUE DRY AIR TO
MOVE IN.

TONIGHT... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BREEZY AS THE MSLP WILL
STILL KEEP TIGHT AND DUE TO CAA THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR -6
C. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY EVENING. THE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD /NEAR
BOTTOM/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS SPECIFIC TO FIRE WEATHER...INCLUDING
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS.

THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN THURSDAY...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA-WESTERN NY/PA...AND THE DEEPENING LOW
OFFSHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DUE TO BUILDING HIGH
WILL BE GETTING ESTABLISHED...RESULTING SUNSHINE AND VERY DRY AIR
MIXING DOWN WITH THE GUSTY WINDS OF PRESSURE GRADIENT.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALREADY QUITE LOW WITH DEW POINTS...YET IN THIS
KIND OF SITUATION MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH MIXING DOWN
ENOUGH OF THE DRY AIR. THUS I WENT EVEN LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE...REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS DEW POINTS FOR
MAJORITY OF AREA /UPPER TEENS TOWARDS FINGER LAKES REGION/. WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...THIS YIELDS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S
PERCENT RANGE. DEFINITELY A STATIC ELECTRICITY KIND OF DAY IF
WALKING ON CARPET.

AS FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS...THEY WILL BE HIGHEST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS...WITH SUSTAINED REACHING 20-25 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. EVEN FURTHER WEST...FREQUENT GUSTS 20-30 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES IN. THE INITIALLY CLEAR SKY WILL HELP QUICKLY DROP
TEMPERATURES TO LOWS OF UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGH THIN CLOUDS
WILL START SPREADING IN OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...BUT
NOT BEFORE A GOOD PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
415 EDT AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SLOW ARRIVAL OF OCCLUDED FRONT
FRIDAY...CONNECTED WELL UPSTREAM TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. NO
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUS NO THUNDER POTENTIAL...AND RAIN AMOUNTS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...PERHAPS ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO.

MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY...PUSHED BY A WAVE ROUNDING THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD YIELD SOME SHOWERS...AND I SIDED WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR
POPS IN CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE...HIGHEST NORTH. SECONDARY FRONT
WITH A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MODELS EXHIBIT UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ECMWF ORIENTING A VERY NEGATIVELY
TILTED AXIS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...VERSUS THE GFS WITH
A LARGE STACKED CUTOFF LOW ENCOMPASSING MORE OF THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW MORE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET
ALSO POTENTIAL RAIN FROM BAROCLINIC ZONE. GFS ONLY SLIGHT GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET ALSO MAINLY DRY AS WE GET INTO
UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST CUTOFF LOW...AND ANOTHER LARGE
ONE IN THE MIDWEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...I WENT LOWER THAN WPC
GUIDANCE BY ONLY INTRODUCING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE... AT LEAST OCNL IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTN AT KITH/KBGM...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS
ELSEWHERE.

THIS EVE (02-04Z)...DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
RGN FROM THE W...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND A RETURN TO VFR RGN-
WIDE.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT LTR THIS EVE (02-04Z)...BEFORE
PICKING UP...AND BCMG GUSTY AGN THU MRNG (AFTER 12-13Z).

OUTLOOK...

THU INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI INTO SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

LTR SAT THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
HEADS UP...CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO BE APPROACHED OR EVEN
EXCEEDED THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS. FIRST...IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WHILE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S PERCENT RANGE.
HOWEVER...A VERY DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN THURSDAY WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S PERCENT RANGE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME
AREAS GOT LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS FROM OUR MOST RECENT SYSTEM THAT
JUST CAME THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOST ONLY RECEIVED VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS. ALSO...SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE SPOTTY...SO FUELS MAY BE
QUITE VULNERABLE TO QUICKLY DRYING OUT THURSDAY GIVEN THE FORECAST
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS IN NORTHEAST PA...AND THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS IN NY...WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
BREACHED. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL EASILY GET INTO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT WINDS WILL BE MORE
BORDERLINE SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR WATCH. MONITOR
FORECAST FOR UPDATES INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCH EXPANSIONS OR
WARNING ISSUANCES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ040-044-047-048-072.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH/TAC
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MLJ
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231457
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1057 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS COLD AND DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE PRESSURE WILL BE TIGHT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AGAIN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1100 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING... AND AS A RESULT THE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE DRY
AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC... THE UPPR LVL ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER MAINE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE MSLP TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE
GUSTY WINDS BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE TRUE DRY AIR TO
MOVE IN.

TONIGHT... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BREEZY AS THE MSLP WILL
STILL KEEP TIGHT AND DUE TO CAA THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR -6
C. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY EVENING. THE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD /NEAR
BOTTOM/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS SPECIFIC TO FIRE WEATHER...INCLUDING
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS.

THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN THURSDAY...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA-WESTERN NY/PA...AND THE DEEPENING LOW
OFFSHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DUE TO BUILDING HIGH
WILL BE GETTING ESTABLISHED...RESULTING SUNSHINE AND VERY DRY AIR
MIXING DOWN WITH THE GUSTY WINDS OF PRESSURE GRADIENT.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALREADY QUITE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS...YET IN THIS
KIND OF SITUATION MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH MIXING DOWN
ENOUGH OF THE DRY AIR. THUS I WENT EVEN LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE...REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS DEWPOINTS FOR
MAJORITY OF AREA /UPPER TEENS TOWARDS FINGER LAKES REGION/. WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...THIS YIELDS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S
PERCENT RANGE. DEFINITELY A STATIC ELECTRICITY KIND OF DAY IF
WALKING ON CARPET.

AS FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS...THEY WILL BE HIGHEST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS...WITH SUSTAINED REACHING 20-25 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. EVEN FURTHER WEST...FREQUENT GUSTS 20-30 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES IN. THE INITIALLY CLEAR SKY WILL HELP QUICKLY DROP
TEMPERATURES TO LOWS OF UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGH THIN CLOUDS
WILL START SPREADING IN OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...BUT
NOT BEFORE A GOOD PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
415 EDT AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SLOW ARRIVAL OF OCCLUDED FRONT
FRIDAY...CONNECTED WELL UPSTREAM TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. NO
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUS NO THUNDER POTENTIAL...AND RAIN AMOUNTS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...PERHAPS ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO.

MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY...PUSHED BY A WAVE ROUNDING THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD YIELD SOME SHOWERS...AND I SIDED WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR
POPS IN CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE...HIGHEST NORTH. SECONDARY FRONT
WITH A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MODELS EXHIBIT UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ECMWF ORIENTING A VERY NEGATIVELY
TILTED AXIS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...VERSUS THE GFS WITH
A LARGE STACKED CUTOFF LOW ENCOMPASSING MORE OF THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW MORE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET
ALSO POTENTIAL RAIN FROM BAROCLINIC ZONE. GFS ONLY SLIGHT GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET ALSO MAINLY DRY AS WE GET INTO
UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST CUTOFF LOW...AND ANOTHER LARGE
ONE IN THE MIDWEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...I WENT LOWER THAN WPC
GUIDANCE BY ONLY INTRODUCING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
645 AM UPDATE...

IFR CIGS IN NY EXCEPT ELM ATTM WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 14 OR 15Z. MVFR
UNTIL 19 OR 20Z IN NY. AVP WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
UNTIL 16Z. CIGS SCATTER AROUND 00Z. VFR TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
TO START...THEN NORTHWEST INCREASING TO SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS DURING THE DAY. THIS EVENING WINDS
DROPPING TO 10 KTS STILL OUT OF THE NW. AVP MAY GUST ALL NIGHT TO
20.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI MORN...VFR.

FRI AFTN-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
HEADS UP...CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO BE APPROACHED OR EVEN
EXCEEDED THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS. FIRST...IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WHILE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S PERCENT RANGE.
HOWEVER...A VERY DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN THURSDAY WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S PERCENT RANGE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME
AREAS GOT LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS FROM OUR MOST RECENT SYSTEM THAT
JUST CAME THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOST ONLY RECEIVED VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS. ALSO...SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE SPOTTY...SO FUELS MAY BE
QUITE VULNERABLE TO QUICKLY DRYING OUT THURSDAY GIVEN THE FORECAST
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS IN NORTHEAST PA...AND THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS IN NY...WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
BREACHED. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL EASILY GET INTO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT WINDS WILL BE MORE
BORDERLINE SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR WATCH. MONITOR
FORECAST FOR UPDATES INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCH EXPANSIONS OR
WARNING ISSUANCES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ040-044-047-048-072.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...MDP









000
FXUS61 KBGM 231101
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
701 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COOLER AND SHOWERY TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND
COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
UPPED POPS TO CAT ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE RAIN SHOWERS ARE STEADY.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN. CURRENT TEMPS COOLER THAN EXPECTED. A
FEW HOURS OF SNOW OR MIX STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS MORNING.

230 AM UPDATE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO PUSHING SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NY ATTM. BACKED UP BY A STRONG DIGGING SHORT WAVE ALOFT.
SO FAR ONLY RAIN SHOWERS BEING REPORTED IN THE LAKE PLAIN BUT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S SO SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION...
ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS. LATE MORNING WARMS ENOUGH THAT PRECIP
WILL BE ONLY RAIN. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO UPSTATE NY
AND THE NRN TIER OF PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH. MORE WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL NOT THAT
MUCH.

DRIER AIR COMES IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH. SKIES
WILL QUICKLY CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS DROP BUT
CAA STILL OCCURRING IN THE EVENING. WITH ALL THE DRY AIR SKIES
WILL CLEAR. TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD /NEAR
BOTTOM/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS SPECIFIC TO FIRE WEATHER...INCLUDING
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS.

THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN THURSDAY...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA-WESTERN NY/PA...AND THE DEEPENING LOW
OFFSHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DUE TO BUILDING HIGH
WILL BE GETTING ESTABLISHED...RESULTING SUNSHINE AND VERY DRY AIR
MIXING DOWN WITH THE GUSTY WINDS OF PRESSURE GRADIENT.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALREADY QUITE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS...YET IN THIS
KIND OF SITUATION MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH MIXING DOWN
ENOUGH OF THE DRY AIR. THUS I WENT EVEN LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE...REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS DEWPOINTS FOR
MAJORITY OF AREA /UPPER TEENS TOWARDS FINGER LAKES REGION/. WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...THIS YIELDS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S
PERCENT RANGE. DEFINITELY A STATIC ELECTRICITY KIND OF DAY IF
WALKING ON CARPET.

AS FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS...THEY WILL BE HIGHEST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS...WITH SUSTAINED REACHING 20-25 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. EVEN FURTHER WEST...FREQUENT GUSTS 20-30 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES IN. THE INITIALLY CLEAR SKY WILL HELP QUICKLY DROP
TEMPERATURES TO LOWS OF UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGH THIN CLOUDS
WILL START SPREADING IN OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...BUT
NOT BEFORE A GOOD PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
415 EDT AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SLOW ARRIVAL OF OCCLUDED FRONT
FRIDAY...CONNECTED WELL UPSTREAM TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. NO
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUS NO THUNDER POTENTIAL...AND RAIN AMOUNTS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...PERHAPS ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO.

MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY...PUSHED BY A WAVE ROUNDING THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD YIELD SOME SHOWERS...AND I SIDED WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR
POPS IN CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE...HIGHEST NORTH. SECONDARY FRONT
WITH A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MODELS EXHIBIT UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ECMWF ORIENTING A VERY NEGATIVELY
TILTED AXIS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...VERSUS THE GFS WITH
A LARGE STACKED CUTOFF LOW ENCOMPASSING MORE OF THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW MORE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET
ALSO POTENTIAL RAIN FROM BAROCLINIC ZONE. GFS ONLY SLIGHT GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET ALSO MAINLY DRY AS WE GET INTO
UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST CUTOFF LOW...AND ANOTHER LARGE
ONE IN THE MIDWEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...I WENT LOWER THAN WPC
GUIDANCE BY ONLY INTRODUCING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
645 AM UPDATE...

IFR CIGS IN NY EXCEPT ELM ATTM WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 14 OR 15Z. MVFR
UNTIL 19 OR 20Z IN NY. AVP WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
UNTIL 16Z. CIGS SCATTER AROUND 00Z. VFR TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
TO START...THEN NORTHWEST INCREASING TO SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS DURING THE DAY. THIS EVENING WINDS
DROPPING TO 10 KTS STILL OUT OF THE NW. AVP MAY GUST ALL NIGHT TO
20.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI MORN...VFR.

FRI AFTN-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
HEADS UP...CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO BE APPROACHED OR EVEN
EXCEEDED THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS. FIRST...IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WHILE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S PERCENT RANGE.
HOWEVER...A VERY DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN THURSDAY WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S PERCENT RANGE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME
AREAS GOT LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS FROM OUR MOST RECENT SYSTEM THAT
JUST CAME THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOST ONLY RECEIVED VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS. ALSO...SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE SPOTTY...SO FUELS MAY BE
QUITE VULNERABLE TO QUICKLY DRYING OUT THURSDAY GIVEN THE FORECAST
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS IN NORTHEAST PA...AND THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS IN NY...WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
BREACHED. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL EASILY GET INTO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT WINDS WILL BE MORE
BORDERLINE SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR WATCH. MONITOR
FORECAST FOR UPDATES INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCH EXPANSIONS OR
WARNING ISSUANCES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ040-044-047-048-072.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 230833
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
433 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COOLER AND SHOWERY TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND
COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 AM UPDATE...

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO PUSHING SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NY ATTM. BACKED UP BY A STRONG DIGGING SHORT WAVE ALOFT.
SO FAR ONLY RAIN SHOWERS BEING REPORTED IN THE LAKE PLAIN BUT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S SO SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION...
ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS. LATE MORNING WARMS ENOUGH THAT PRECIP
WILL BE ONLY RAIN. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO UPSTATE NY
AND THE NRN TIER OF PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH. MORE WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL NOT THAT
MUCH.

DRIER AIR COMES IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH. SKIES
WILL QUICKLY CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS DROP BUT
CAA STILL OCCURRING IN THE EVENING. WITH ALL THE DRY AIR SKIES
WILL CLEAR. TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD /NEAR
BOTTOM/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS SPECIFIC TO FIRE WEATHER...INCLUDING
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS.

THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN THURSDAY...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA-WESTERN NY/PA...AND THE DEEPENING LOW
OFFSHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DUE TO BUILDING HIGH
WILL BE GETTING ESTABLISHED...RESULTING SUNSHINE AND VERY DRY AIR
MIXING DOWN WITH THE GUSTY WINDS OF PRESSURE GRADIENT.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALREADY QUITE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS...YET IN THIS
KIND OF SITUATION MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH MIXING DOWN
ENOUGH OF THE DRY AIR. THUS I WENT EVEN LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE...REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS DEWPOINTS FOR
MAJORITY OF AREA /UPPER TEENS TOWARDS FINGER LAKES REGION/. WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...THIS YIELDS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S
PERCENT RANGE. DEFINITELY A STATIC ELECTRICITY KIND OF DAY IF
WALKING ON CARPET.

AS FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS...THEY WILL BE HIGHEST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS...WITH SUSTAINED REACHING 20-25 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. EVEN FURTHER WEST...FREQUENT GUSTS 20-30 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES IN. THE INITIALLY CLEAR SKY WILL HELP QUICKLY DROP
TEMPERATURES TO LOWS OF UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGH THIN CLOUDS
WILL START SPREADING IN OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...BUT
NOT BEFORE A GOOD PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
415 EDT AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SLOW ARRIVAL OF OCCLUDED FRONT
FRIDAY...CONNECTED WELL UPSTREAM TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. NO
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUS NO THUNDER POTENTIAL...AND RAIN AMOUNTS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...PERHAPS ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO.

MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY...PUSHED BY A WAVE ROUNDING THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD YIELD SOME SHOWERS...AND I SIDED WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR
POPS IN CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE...HIGHEST NORTH. SECONDARY FRONT
WITH A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MODELS EXHIBIT UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ECMWF ORIENTING A VERY NEGATIVELY
TILTED AXIS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...VERSUS THE GFS WITH
A LARGE STACKED CUTOFF LOW ENCOMPASSING MORE OF THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW MORE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET
ALSO POTENTIAL RAIN FROM BAROCLINIC ZONE. GFS ONLY SLIGHT GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET ALSO MAINLY DRY AS WE GET INTO
UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST CUTOFF LOW...AND ANOTHER LARGE
ONE IN THE MIDWEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...I WENT LOWER THAN WPC
GUIDANCE BY ONLY INTRODUCING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

LOWER CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW
YORK ATTM. BY 10Z SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS ALL SITES. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE 8 TO 14Z SYR RME ITH BGM. BEST BET BGM AND ITH. BGM MAY
DROP TO IFR VSBYS TOO WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ELM AND AVP
SHOULD STAY MVFR BUT MAY HAVE FLIGHT ALTERNATES WITH CIGS UNDER 2K
FT. AFTER 14Z CIGS RISE THEN SCATTER AROUND 00Z. VFR THIS
EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN NORTHWEST INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30
KTS DURING THE DAY. THIS EVENING WINDS DROPPING TO 10 KTS STILL
OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
HEADS UP...CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO BE APPROACHED OR EVEN
EXCEEDED THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS. FIRST...IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WHILE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S PERCENT RANGE.
HOWEVER...A VERY DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN THURSDAY WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S PERCENT RANGE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME
AREAS GOT LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS FROM OUR MOST RECENT SYSTEM THAT
JUST CAME THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOST ONLY RECEIVED VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS. ALSO...SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE SPOTTY...SO FUELS MAY BE
QUITE VULNERABLE TO QUICKLY DRYING OUT THURSDAY GIVEN THE FORECAST
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS IN NORTHEAST PA...AND THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS IN NY...WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
BREACHED. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL EASILY GET INTO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT WINDS WILL BE MORE
BORDERLINE SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR WATCH. MONITOR
FORECAST FOR UPDATES INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCH EXPANSIONS OR
WARNING ISSUANCES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ040-044-047-048-072.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 230658
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
258 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COOLER AND SHOWERY TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND
COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 AM UPDATE...

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO PUSHING SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NY ATTM. BACKED UP BY A STRONG DIGGING SHORT WAVE ALOFT.
SO FAR ONLY RAIN SHOWERS BEING REPORTED IN THE LAKE PLAIN BUT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S SO SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION...
ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS. LATE MORNING WARMS ENOUGH THAT PRECIP
WILL BE ONLY RAIN. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO UPSTATE NY
AND THE NRN TIER OF PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH. MORE WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL NOT THAT
MUCH.

DRIER AIR COMES IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH. SKIES
WILL QUICKLY CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS DROP BUT
CAA STILL OCCURRING IN THE EVENING. WITH ALL THE DRY AIR SKIES
WILL CLEAR. TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
BREEZY NW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND TEMPS
THURS MORNING WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS CAA
AND DRY AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF WED NIGHT. A
SFC RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE NY AND PA THURS AFTERNOON
AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
STILL BE BREEZY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURS THUS
THERE MAY SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH VALUES WILL BE LOW.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO APPROACH THE CWA ON FRI. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM
TO BE LIGHT. THERE ARE STILL LARGE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE THUS
DECIDED TO KEEP CHANGE OF RAIN IN. DECENT WAA IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU CWA TO START OFF THE EXTNDD PD WITH A
SHOWERY WEEKEND ON TAP. HI PRES WL BUILD IN SUN NGT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. TEMPS WL MODERATE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT
RMN BLO NORMAL. BOTH GFS AND EURO AGREE ON DVLPMNT OF CLOSED LOW
OVR CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS SUPPLY OF CONT`D
COLD AIR WL KEEP CHCS FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FOR THE MRNG HRS THEN
BCMG RAIN SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

LOWER CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW
YORK ATTM. BY 10Z SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS ALL SITES. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE 8 TO 14Z SYR RME ITH BGM. BEST BET BGM AND ITH. BGM MAY
DROP TO IFR VSBYS TOO WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ELM AND AVP
SHOULD STAY MVFR BUT MAY HAVE FLIGHT ALTERNATES WITH CIGS UNDER 2K
FT. AFTER 14Z CIGS RISE THEN SCATTER AROUND 00Z. VFR THIS
EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN NORTHWEST INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30
KTS DURING THE DAY. THIS EVENING WINDS DROPPING TO 10 KTS STILL
OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE
KNOWN BY WED AFTERNOON WHEN DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION FALL
BELOW 30. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BREEZY AS A HIGH AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME COMPACT OVER THE NORTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN MORE DRY AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A CONCERN AS WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S TO UPPER
20S.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 230124
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
924 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 930 PM...
COLD FRONT AT 9 PM IS NOW EAST OF BGM AND JUST GETTING TO THE
WILKES-BARRE / SCRANTON AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY PA THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
RE- DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AROUND OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL
NEW YORK BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD REACH DOWN TO
NORTHERN PA TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX WITH THE
RAIN TOWARD DABYREAK ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


UPDATED AT 730 PM...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS NOW EAST OF THE CWA WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR UCA TO BGM TO IPT. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT WILL END THE SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING WILL
OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHERN PA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WITH
THE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AFTER ABOUT 09Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

300 PM EDT UPDATE... TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND
CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT
IS PRESENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING
THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH MOVED EAST THIS MORNING
AND EJECTED A VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS
MOST PRONOUNCED AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL
INSTABILITY WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
NO DIRECT CONNECTION WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE
MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID...
WE MAY SEE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY
SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 20Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. IT APPEARS THAT
THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN PA... BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN GRIDS AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY PRESENT. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND
THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY. WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE FROPA.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT... THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY NW SFC
FLOW BEHIND THE FROPA AND LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE... LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW. BREEZY NW SFC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAY ON WED AHEAD OF A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE WED AFTERNOON AS A COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
BREEZY NW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND TEMPS
THURS MORNING WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS CAA
AND DRY AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF WED NIGHT. A
SFC RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE NY AND PA THURS AFTERNOON
AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
STILL BE BREEZY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURS THUS
THERE MAY SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH VALUES WILL BE LOW.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO APPROACH THE CWA ON FRI. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM
TO BE LIGHT. THERE ARE STILL LARGE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE THUS
DECIDED TO KEEP CHANGE OF RAIN IN. DECENT WAA IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU CWA TO START OFF THE EXTNDD PD WITH A
SHOWERY WEEKEND ON TAP. HI PRES WL BUILD IN SUN NGT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. TEMPS WL MODERATE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT
RMN BLO NORMAL. BOTH GFS AND EURO AGREE ON DVLPMNT OF CLOSED LOW
OVR CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS SUPPLY OF CONT`D
COLD AIR WL KEEP CHCS FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FOR THE MRNG HRS THEN
BCMG RAIN SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL
BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA WILL END BY AROUND
02Z. MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING
TO NORTHEAST PA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. .. THEN SHOWERS WILL RE-
DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT SPREADING SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST PA BY DAYBREAK. A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WITH THE
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATION SITES OF ITH AND BGM. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT BGM AND ITH.  SHOWERS WILL END OVER NORTHERN PA AND
SOUTHERN NY BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL NY WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT THEN
NORTHWEST INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE KNOWN BY
WED AFTERNOON WHEN DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION FALL BELOW 30.
WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BREEZY AS A HIGH AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME COMPACT OVER THE NORTHEAST. THURSDAY
WILL BE EVEN MORE DRY AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A CONCERN AS WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...MSE
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 222337
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
737 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 730 PM...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS NOW EAST OF THE CWA WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR UCA TO BGM TO IPT. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT WILL END THE SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING WILL
OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHERN PA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WITH
THE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AFTER ABOUT 09Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

300 PM EDT UPDATE... TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND
CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT
IS PRESENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING
THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH MOVED EAST THIS MORNING
AND EJECTED A VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS
MOST PRONOUNCED AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL
INSTABILITY WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
NO DIRECT CONNECTION WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE
MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID...
WE MAY SEE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY
SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 20Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. IT APPEARS THAT
THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN PA... BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN GRIDS AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY PRESENT. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND
THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY. WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE FROPA.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT... THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY NW SFC
FLOW BEHIND THE FROPA AND LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE... LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW. BREEZY NW SFC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAY ON WED AHEAD OF A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE WED AFTERNOON AS A COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
BREEZY NW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND TEMPS
THURS MORNING WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS CAA
AND DRY AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF WED NIGHT. A
SFC RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE NY AND PA THURS AFTERNOON
AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
STILL BE BREEZY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURS THUS
THERE MAY SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH VALUES WILL BE LOW.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO APPROACH THE CWA ON FRI. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM
TO BE LIGHT. THERE ARE STILL LARGE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE THUS
DECIDED TO KEEP CHANGE OF RAIN IN. DECENT WAA IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU CWA TO START OFF THE EXTNDD PD WITH A
SHOWERY WEEKEND ON TAP. HI PRES WL BUILD IN SUN NGT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. TEMPS WL MODERATE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT
RMN BLO NORMAL. BOTH GFS AND EURO AGREE ON DVLPMNT OF CLOSED LOW
OVR CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS SUPPLY OF CONT`D
COLD AIR WL KEEP CHCS FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FOR THE MRNG HRS THEN
BCMG RAIN SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL
BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA WILL END BY AROUND
02Z. MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING
TO NORTHEAST PA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. .. THEN SHOWERS WILL RE-
DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT SPREADING SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST PA BY DAYBREAK. A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WITH THE
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATION SITES OF ITH AND BGM. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT BGM AND ITH.  SHOWERS WILL END OVER NORTHERN PA AND
SOUTHERN NY BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL NY WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT THEN
NORTHWEST INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE KNOWN BY
WED AFTERNOON WHEN DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION FALL BELOW 30.
WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BREEZY AS A HIGH AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME COMPACT OVER THE NORTHEAST. THURSDAY
WILL BE EVEN MORE DRY AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A CONCERN AS WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...MSE
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 221911
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
311 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

300 PM EDT UPDATE...
TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE
OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING THE RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH MOVED EAST THIS MORNING AND EJECTED A
VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NO DIRECT CONNECTION
WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH
AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID... WE MAY SEE UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 20Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. IT APPEARS THAT
THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN PA... BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN GRIDS AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY PRESENT. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND
THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY. WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE FROPA.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT... THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY NW SFC
FLOW BEHIND THE FROPA AND LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE... LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW. BREEZY NW SFC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAY ON WED AHEAD OF A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE WED AFTERNOON AS A COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
BREEZY NW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND TEMPS
THURS MORNING WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS CAA
AND DRY AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF WED NIGHT. A
SFC RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE NY AND PA THURS AFTERNOON
AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
STILL BE BREEZY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURS THUS
THERE MAY SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH VALUES WILL BE LOW.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO APPROACH THE CWA ON FRI. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM
TO BE LIGHT. THERE ARE STILL LARGE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE THUS
DECIDED TO KEEP CHANGE OF RAIN IN. DECENT WAA IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU CWA TO START OFF THE EXTNDD PD WITH A
SHOWERY WEEKEND ON TAP. HI PRES WL BUILD IN SUN NGT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. TEMPS WL MODERATE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT
RMN BLO NORMAL. BOTH GFS AND EURO AGREE ON DVLPMNT OF CLOSED LOW
OVR CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS SUPPLY OF CONT`D
COLD AIR WL KEEP CHCS FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FOR THE MRNG HRS THEN
BCMG RAIN SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
AREA OF VFR SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS AT THIS TIME AND
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR BFR MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. REMOVED -TSRA AS IT DOES NOT
APPEAR ANY THUNDER WILL DEVELOP TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AROUND 19Z AT NY TERMINALS AND CLOSER TO 21Z AT KAVP.
AFTER IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO MVFR CIGS TONIGHT, POSSIBLY AS LOW AS IFR AT KITH BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z. CIGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500FT OVERNIGHT.
MAY SEE AN UNRESTRICTED SHOWER AS UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES AFTER
06Z. EXPECT CIGS TO RISE TO VFR AT KSYR, KELM AND KAVP AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY WITH REMAINING TERMINALS EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THE END OF TAF VALID TIME.

WINDS FROM THE SSW AROUND 10KTS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AROUND 10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KTS, BECOMING GUSTIER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
BUT REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE KNOWN BY
WED AFTERNOON WHEN DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION FALL BELOW 30.
WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BREEZY AS A HIGH AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME COMPACT OVER THE NORTHEAST. THURSDAY
WILL BE EVEN MORE DRY AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A CONCERN AS WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...KAH









000
FXUS61 KBGM 221806
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
206 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM EDT UPDATE...
ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POPS TO MATCH REALITY ON THE RADAR. EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A GAP
BETWEEN THE FROPA AND THE 1ST ROUND OF SHOWERS. HRRR MODEL APPEARS
TO BE DOING VERY WELL WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE OUTPUT OF THE MODEL. OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1150 AM EDT UPDATE...
TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE
OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING THE RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AND EJECT A
VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NO DIRECT CONNECTION
WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH
AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID... WE MAY SEE UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 18Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED COOL AND SHOWERY WITH SLOWING STACKED LOW IN ERN NEW ENGLAND.
NW CAA FLOW WILL ADD SOME LAKE MOISTURE BUT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL NOT ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT. WED MORN SECONDARY
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THE
REST OF THE DAY. LATE WED THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. WITH
CAA SFC MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE U40S AND L50S.

WED NGT WILL BE COLD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS U20S TO A30.

THU WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
L60S SRN VALLEYS. SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH DURING THE AFTN.

THU NGT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRI AFTN. PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH THE HIGH ONLY MOVG INTO ERN NY. TREND AGAIN
TO DELAY THE FRONT A FEW HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU CWA TO START OFF THE EXTNDD PD WITH A
SHOWERY WEEKEND ON TAP. HIPRES WL BUILD IN SUN NGT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. TEMPS WL MODERATE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT
RMN BLO NORMAL. BOTH GFS AND EURO AGREE ON DVLPMNT OF CLOSED LOW
OVR CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS SUPPLY OF CONT`D
COLD AIR WL KEEP CHCS FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FOR THE MRNG HRS THEN
BCMG RAIN SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
AREA OF VFR SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS AT THIS TIME AND
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR BFR MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. REMOVED -TSRA AS IT DOES NOT
APPEAR ANY THUNDER WILL DEVELOP TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AROUND 19Z AT NY TERMINALS AND CLOSER TO 21Z AT KAVP.
AFTER IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO MVFR CIGS TONIGHT, POSSIBLY AS LOW AS IFR AT KITH BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z. CIGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500FT OVERNIGHT.
MAY SEE AN UNRESTRICTED SHOWER AS UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES AFTER
06Z. EXPECT CIGS TO RISE TO VFR AT KSYR, KELM AND KAVP AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY WITH REMAINING TERMINALS EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THE END OF TAF VALID TIME.

WINDS FROM THE SSW AROUND 10KTS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AROUND 10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KTS, BECOMING GUSTIER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
BUT REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
645 AM UPDATE... DESPITE POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PUTTING A HOLD ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER THE RECENT WARM DRY SPELL.

NEXT DAY TO WATCH WILL BE THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND RH
BELOW 30 PERCENT. QUESTION HERE WHETHER FUELS WILL DRY OUT IN
TIME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KBGM 221738
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
138 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM EDT UPDATE...
ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POPS TO MATCH REALITY ON THE RADAR. EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A GAP
BETWEEN THE FROPA AND THE 1ST ROUND OF SHOWERS. HRRR MODEL APPEARS
TO BE DOING VERY WELL WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE OUTPUT OF THE MODEL. OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1150 AM EDT UPDATE...
TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE
OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING THE RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AND EJECT A
VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NO DIRECT CONNECTION
WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH
AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID... WE MAY SEE UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 18Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED COOL AND SHOWERY WITH SLOWING STACKED LOW IN ERN NEW ENGLAND.
NW CAA FLOW WILL ADD SOME LAKE MOISTURE BUT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL NOT ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT. WED MORN SECONDARY
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THE
REST OF THE DAY. LATE WED THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. WITH
CAA SFC MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE U40S AND L50S.

WED NGT WILL BE COLD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS U20S TO A30.

THU WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
L60S SRN VALLEYS. SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH DURING THE AFTN.

THU NGT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRI AFTN. PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH THE HIGH ONLY MOVG INTO ERN NY. TREND AGAIN
TO DELAY THE FRONT A FEW HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPES.
POSITIONING OF FRONTS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE TOO. BOTTOM LINE
UNSETTLED AND COOL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LITTLE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AND NO THUNDER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS
GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DESPITE SOME DOWNSTREAM DISAGREEMENT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
AREA OF VFR SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS AT THIS TIME AND
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR BFR MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. REMOVED -TSRA AS IT DOES NOT
APPEAR ANY THUNDER WILL DEVELOP TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AROUND 19Z AT NY TERMINALS AND CLOSER TO 21Z AT KAVP.
AFTER IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO MVFR CIGS TONIGHT, POSSIBLY AS LOW AS IFR AT KITH BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z. CIGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500FT OVERNIGHT.
MAY SEE AN UNRESTRICTED SHOWER AS UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES AFTER
06Z. EXPECT CIGS TO RISE TO VFR AT KSYR, KELM AND KAVP AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY WITH REMAINING TERMINALS EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THE END OF TAF VALID TIME.

WINDS FROM THE SSW AROUND 10KTS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AROUND 10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KTS, BECOMING GUSTIER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
BUT REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
645 AM UPDATE... DESPITE POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PUTTING A HOLD ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER THE RECENT WARM DRY SPELL.

NEXT DAY TO WATCH WILL BE THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND RH
BELOW 30 PERCENT. QUESTION HERE WHETHER FUELS WILL DRY OUT IN
TIME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE/TAC
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KBGM 221625
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1225 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM EDT UPDATE...
ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POPS TO MATCH REALITY ON THE RADAR. EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A GAP
BETWEEN THE FROPA AND THE 1ST ROUND OF SHOWERS. HRRR MODEL APPEARS
TO BE DOING VERY WELL WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE OUTPUT OF THE MODEL. OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1150 AM EDT UPDATE...
TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE
OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING THE RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AND EJECT A
VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NO DIRECT CONNECTION
WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH
AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID... WE MAY SEE UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 18Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED COOL AND SHOWERY WITH SLOWING STACKED LOW IN ERN NEW ENGLAND.
NW CAA FLOW WILL ADD SOME LAKE MOISTURE BUT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL NOT ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT. WED MORN SECONDARY
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THE
REST OF THE DAY. LATE WED THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. WITH
CAA SFC MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE U40S AND L50S.

WED NGT WILL BE COLD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS U20S TO A30.

THU WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
L60S SRN VALLEYS. SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH DURING THE AFTN.

THU NGT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRI AFTN. PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH THE HIGH ONLY MOVG INTO ERN NY. TREND AGAIN
TO DELAY THE FRONT A FEW HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPES.
POSITIONING OF FRONTS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE TOO. BOTTOM LINE
UNSETTLED AND COOL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LITTLE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AND NO THUNDER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS
GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DESPITE SOME DOWNSTREAM DISAGREEMENT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
STILL VFR FOR NOW...BUT CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AND THICKENING AHEAD
OF INCOMING COLD FRONT. EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG FRONT WILL MOVE WNW TO ENE FROM 16Z-22Z INCLUDING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR
SPECIFICS OF TIMING. ONLY HAVE CB IN KBGM-KAVP TAFS AT THIS
TIME...ALSO POSSIBLE AT KELM-KITH BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF /WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS/. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS...WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
STRATUS CIG AND EVENTUAL POST FRONTAL SCT -SHRA. HOWEVER...THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL SHOWER-THUNDER BAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A
PUSH OF 20-25 KT GUSTS AS INDICATED IN TAFS WITHIN THE TEMPO GROUPS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT -SHRA AND LINGERING MVFR CIGS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SAT... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
645 AM UPDATE... DESPITE POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PUTTING A HOLD ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER THE RECENT WARM DRY SPELL.

NEXT DAY TO WATCH WILL BE THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND RH
BELOW 30 PERCENT. QUESTION HERE WHETHER FUELS WILL DRY OUT IN
TIME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE/TAC
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...









000
FXUS61 KBGM 221553
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1153 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1150 AM EDT UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS POPS LOOK
GOOD WITH THE LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.

TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE
OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING THE RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AND EJECT A
VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NO DIRECT CONNECTION
WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH
AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID... WE MAY SEE UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 18Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED COOL AND SHOWERY WITH SLOWING STACKED LOW IN ERN NEW ENGLAND.
NW CAA FLOW WILL ADD SOME LAKE MOISTURE BUT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL NOT ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT. WED MORN SECONDARY
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THE
REST OF THE DAY. LATE WED THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. WITH
CAA SFC MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE U40S AND L50S.

WED NGT WILL BE COLD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS U20S TO A30.

THU WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
L60S SRN VALLEYS. SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH DURING THE AFTN.

THU NGT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRI AFTN. PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH THE HIGH ONLY MOVG INTO ERN NY. TREND AGAIN
TO DELAY THE FRONT A FEW HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPES.
POSITIONING OF FRONTS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE TOO. BOTTOM LINE
UNSETTLED AND COOL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LITTLE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AND NO THUNDER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS
GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DESPITE SOME DOWNSTREAM DISAGREEMENT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
STILL VFR FOR NOW...BUT CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AND THICKENING AHEAD
OF INCOMING COLD FRONT. EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG FRONT WILL MOVE WNW TO ENE FROM 16Z-22Z INCLUDING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR
SPECIFICS OF TIMING. ONLY HAVE CB IN KBGM-KAVP TAFS AT THIS
TIME...ALSO POSSIBLE AT KELM-KITH BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF /WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS/. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS...WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
STRATUS CIG AND EVENTUAL POST FRONTAL SCT -SHRA. HOWEVER...THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL SHOWER-THUNDER BAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A
PUSH OF 20-25 KT GUSTS AS INDICATED IN TAFS WITHIN THE TEMPO GROUPS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT -SHRA AND LINGERING MVFR CIGS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SAT... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
645 AM UPDATE... DESPITE POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PUTTING A HOLD ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER THE RECENT WARM DRY SPELL.

NEXT DAY TO WATCH WILL BE THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND RH
BELOW 30 PERCENT. QUESTION HERE WHETHER FUELS WILL DRY OUT IN
TIME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE/TAC
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...MDP/TAC









000
FXUS61 KBGM 221502
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1102 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM EDT UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS POPS LOOK
GOOD WITH THE LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.

TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE
OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING THE RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AND EJECT A
VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NO DIRECT CONNECTION
WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH
AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID... WE MAY SEE UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 18Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED COOL AND SHOWERY WITH SLOWING STACKED LOW IN ERN NEW ENGLAND.
NW CAA FLOW WILL ADD SOME LAKE MOISTURE BUT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL NOT ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT. WED MORN SECONDARY
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THE
REST OF THE DAY. LATE WED THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. WITH
CAA SFC MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE U40S AND L50S.

WED NGT WILL BE COLD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS U20S TO A30.

THU WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
L60S SRN VALLEYS. SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH DURING THE AFTN.

THU NGT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRI AFTN. PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH THE HIGH ONLY MOVG INTO ERN NY. TREND AGAIN
TO DELAY THE FRONT A FEW HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPES.
POSITIONING OF FRONTS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE TOO. BOTTOM LINE
UNSETTLED AND COOL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LITTLE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AND NO THUNDER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS
GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DESPITE SOME DOWNSTREAM DISAGREEMENT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
STILL VFR FOR NOW...BUT CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AND THICKENING AHEAD
OF INCOMING COLD FRONT. EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG FRONT WILL MOVE WNW TO ENE FROM 16Z-22Z INCLUDING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR
SPECIFICS OF TIMING. ONLY HAVE CB IN KBGM-KAVP TAFS AT THIS
TIME...ALSO POSSIBLE AT KELM-KITH BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF /WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS/. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS...WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
STRATUS CIG AND EVENTUAL POST FRONTAL SCT -SHRA. HOWEVER...THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL SHOWER-THUNDER BAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A
PUSH OF 20-25 KT GUSTS AS INDICATED IN TAFS WITHIN THE TEMPO GROUPS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT -SHRA AND LINGERING MVFR CIGS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SAT... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
645 AM UPDATE... DESPITE POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PUTTING A HOLD ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER THE RECENT WARM DRY SPELL.

NEXT DAY TO WATCH WILL BE THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND RH
BELOW 30 PERCENT. QUESTION HERE WHETHER FUELS WILL DRY OUT IN
TIME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE/TAC
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...MDP/TAC










000
FXUS61 KBGM 221052
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS THICKEN THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN WITH APPROACH OF
INCOMING FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MARKED BY SHOWERS STRETCHING
FROM THE ONTARIO PENINSULA TO LAKE ERIE TO NORTHERN OHIO. THE
CONTINUED WARM FEED OF AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND LACK OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING...KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
READINGS AROUND DAWN MAINLY IN THE 50S. SYRACUSE AT 6 AM WAS EVEN
STILL 61 DEGREES...IN CONTRAST TO MONTICELLO AT 43. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRICKY TODAY BECAUSE OF FRONTAL TIMING AND THICKENING
CLOUDS/DEVELOPING SHOWERS/EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. HIGHS OF MAINLY
60S WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES...MIDDAY FOR
CENTRAL ZONES...AND EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT...NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS NOW QUICKLY
DIGGING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP.
AS THIS WAVE CATCHES UP TO THE FRONT LATER TODAY...IT WILL PROVIDE
A NICE SHOT OF ENERGY/PVA AND MAY EVEN EXHIBIT SOME NEGATIVE
TILTING. THE NAM MODEL FOR SEVERAL RUNS HAS SHOWN SOME CAPE IN THE
PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND IT IS BEEN JOINED SOMEWHAT BY THE
HIGH RES MODELS...AND EVEN THE RELUCTANT GFS IS AT LEAST HINTING
AT MARGINAL INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE ABOVE...I HAVE ADDED CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN TWIN TIERS TO WYOMING VALLEY BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE SINCE REALIZING THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE A BIT
OF A STRUGGLE. ALSO HONED IN ON SPECIFIC SHOWER TIMING BASED ON
FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED FRONTAL POSITIONING. AS IT LOOKS NOW...TIMING
OF FRONT WOULD BE FINGER LAKES EARLY AFTERNOON...TOWANDA-
BINGHAMTON-UTICA AROUND 3PM...SCRANTON-DELHI AROUND 5PM...AND
MONTICELLO 6PM. ALL TOLD...WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FRONT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STRUGGLING TO EVEN BRIEFLY REACH NEAR AN
INCH...ONLY EXPECTING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL.

UNTIL THE FRONT ITSELF...SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AND BATTLING
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...AND SO MUCH WILL BE
VIRGA OR SPRINKLES. THEN WHEN THE FRONT AND SHOWERS-EMBEDDED THUNDER
COME THROUGH...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 20-30 MPH
GUSTS EVEN THOUGH SHEAR ITSELF IS NOMINAL...BECAUSE OF INVERTED-V
LOOK TO THE SOUNDINGS AND THUS COLD POOL PRODUCTION FROM
EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

FRONTAL SHOWERS QUICKLY EXIT EAST EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY. MIXING IN OF WET SNOWFLAKES NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...BUT VAST MAJORITY WILL
NOT SEE IT AND THOSE THAT DO WILL NOT HAVE ANY ACCUMULATION. LOWS
TONIGHT GENERALLY MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED COOL AND SHOWERY WITH SLOWING STACKED LOW IN ERN NEW ENGLAND.
NW CAA FLOW WILL ADD SOME LAKE MOISTURE BUT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL NOT ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT. WED MORN SECONDARY
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THE
REST OF THE DAY. LATE WED THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. WITH
CAA SFC MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE U40S AND L50S.

WED NGT WILL BE COLD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS U20S TO A30.

THU WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
L60S SRN VALLEYS. SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH DURING THE AFTN.

THU NGT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRI AFTN. PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH THE HIGH ONLY MOVG INTO ERN NY. TREND AGAIN
TO DELAY THE FRONT A FEW HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPES.
POSITIONING OF FRONTS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE TOO. BOTTOM LINE
UNSETTLED AND COOL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LITTLE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AND NO THUNDER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS
GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DESPITE SOME DOWNSTREAM DISAGREEMENT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
STILL VFR FOR NOW...BUT CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AND THICKENING AHEAD
OF INCOMING COLD FRONT. EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG FRONT WILL MOVE WNW TO ENE FROM 16Z-22Z INCLUDING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR
SPECIFICS OF TIMING. ONLY HAVE CB IN KBGM-KAVP TAFS AT THIS
TIME...ALSO POSSIBLE AT KELM-KITH BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF /WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS/. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS...WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
STRATUS CIG AND EVENTUAL POST FRONTAL SCT -SHRA. HOWEVER...THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL SHOWER-THUNDER BAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A
PUSH OF 20-25 KT GUSTS AS INDICATED IN TAFS WITHIN THE TEMPO GROUPS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT -SHRA AND LINGERING MVFR CIGS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SAT... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
645 AM UPDATE... DESPITE POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PUTTING A HOLD ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER THE RECENT WARM DRY SPELL.

NEXT DAY TO WATCH WILL BE THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND RH
BELOW 30 PERCENT. QUESTION HERE WHETHER FUELS WILL DRY OUT IN
TIME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE/TAC
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...MDP/TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 220800
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
400 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF THUNDER AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 AM UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN AHEAD OF INCOMING
FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MARKED BY SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM LAKE
HURON THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN-NORTHERN INDIANA. THE CONTINUED WARM
FEED OF AIR...AND LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...HAS MOST READINGS
STILL IN THE 50S AT THIS HOUR. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GO DOWN MUCH
MORE OVERNIGHT.

BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT...NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS NOW DIGGING
ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST-NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP. AS THIS WAVE CATCHES UP TO THE FRONT LATER TODAY...IT WILL
PROVIDE A NICE SHOT OF ENERGY/PVA AND MAY EVEN EXHIBIT SOME
NEGATIVE TILTING. THE NAM MODEL FOR SEVERAL RUNS HAS SHOWN SOME
CAPE IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT IT IS NOW BEING JOINED BY
THE HIGH RES MODELS...AND EVEN THE RELUCTANT GFS IS AT LEAST
HINTING AT MARGINAL INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE ABOVE...I HAVE ADDED
CHANCE OF THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG AND NORTH OF NY
THRUWAY CORRIDOR WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE OF A CHALLENGE. I
ALSO HONED IN ON SPECIFIC SHOWER TIMING BASED ON FAIRLY WELL
CLUSTERED FRONTAL POSITIONING. AS IT LOOKS NOW...TIMING OF FRONT
WOULD BE FINGER LAKES EARLY AFTERNOON...TOWANDA-BINGHAMTON-UTICA
AROUND 3PM...SCRANTON-DELHI AROUND 5PM...MONTICELLO 6PM. ALL
TOLD...WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FRONT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STRUGGLING TO EVEN BRIEFLY REACH NEAR AN INCH...ONLY
EXPECTING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES ALSO TRICKY BECAUSE OF FRONTAL TIMING AND THICKENING
CLOUDS/DEVELOPING SHOWERS/EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. HIGHS OF MAINLY
60S WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES...MIDDAY FOR
CENTRAL ZONES...AND EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

UNTIL THE FRONT ITSELF...SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AND BATTLING
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...AND SO MUCH WILL BE
VIRGA. THEN WHEN THE FRONT AND SHOWERS-EMBEDDED THUNDER COME
THROUGH...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS EVEN
THOUGH SHEAR ITSELF IS NOMINAL...BECAUSE OF INVERTED-V LOOK TO THE
SOUNDINGS AND THUS COLD POOL PRODUCTION FROM EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

FRONTAL SHOWERS QUICKLY EXIT EAST EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY. MIXING IN OF WET SNOWFLAKES NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...BUT VAST MAJORITY WILL
NOT SEE IT AND THOSE THAT DO WILL NOT HAVE ANY ACCUMULATION. LOWS
TONIGHT GENERALLY MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED COOL AND SHOWERY WITH SLOWING STACKED LOW IN ERN NEW ENGLAND.
NW CAA FLOW WILL ADD SOME LAKE MOISTURE BUT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL NOT ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT. WED MORN SECONDARY
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THE
REST OF THE DAY. LATE WED THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. WITH
CAA SFC MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE U40S AND L50S.

WED NGT WILL BE COLD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS U20S TO A30.

THU WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
L60S SRN VALLEYS. SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH DURING THE AFTN.

THU NGT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRI AFTN. PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH THE HIGH ONLY MOVG INTO ERN NY. TREND AGAIN
TO DELAY THE FRONT A FEW HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPES.
POSITIONING OF FRONTS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE TOO. BOTTOM LINE
UNSETTLED AND COOL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LITTLE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AND NO THUNDER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS
GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DESPITE SOME DOWNSTREAM DISAGREEMENT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
STILL VFR...BUT CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AND THICKENING AHEAD OF
INCOMING COLD FRONT. EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS
ALONG FRONT WILL MOVE WNW TO ENE FROM 16Z-22Z INCLUDING MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AND SOME THUNDER...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR SPECIFICS
OF TIMING AND THUNDER /CB NOT INCLUDED FOR KSYR-KRME AT THIS TIME
BECAUSE OF LOWER PROBABILITY/. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS...WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
STRATUS CIG. HOWEVER...IMMEDIATE FRONTAL SHOWER-THUNDER BAND WILL
LIKELY INCLUDE A PUSH OF 20-25 KT GUSTS AS INDICATED IN TAFS
WITHIN THE TEMPO GROUPS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LINGERING MVFR CIGS ON
BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SAT... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
200 AM UPDATE...
DESPITE FAIRLY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PUTTING A HOLD ON FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AFTER THE RECENT WARM DRY SPELL.

NEXT DAY TO WATCH WILL BE THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND RH
BELOW 30 PERCENT. QUESTION HERE WHETHER FUELS WILL DRY OUT IN
TIME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE/TAC
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...MDP/TAC








000
FXUS61 KBGM 220624
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
224 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF THUNDER AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 AM UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN AHEAD OF INCOMING
FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MARKED BY SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM LAKE
HURON THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN-NORTHERN INDIANA. THE CONTINUED WARM
FEED OF AIR...AND LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...HAS MOST READINGS
STILL IN THE 50S AT THIS HOUR. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GO DOWN MUCH
MORE OVERNIGHT.

BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT...NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS NOW DIGGING
ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST-NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP. AS THIS WAVE CATCHES UP TO THE FRONT LATER TODAY...IT WILL
PROVIDE A NICE SHOT OF ENERGY/PVA AND MAY EVEN EXHIBIT SOME
NEGATIVE TILTING. THE NAM MODEL FOR SEVERAL RUNS HAS SHOWN SOME
CAPE IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT IT IS NOW BEING JOINED BY
THE HIGH RES MODELS...AND EVEN THE RELUCTANT GFS IS AT LEAST
HINTING AT MARGINAL INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE ABOVE...I HAVE ADDED
CHANCE OF THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG AND NORTH OF NY
THRUWAY CORRIDOR WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE OF A CHALLENGE. I
ALSO HONED IN ON SPECIFIC SHOWER TIMING BASED ON FAIRLY WELL
CLUSTERED FRONTAL POSITIONING. AS IT LOOKS NOW...TIMING OF FRONT
WOULD BE FINGER LAKES EARLY AFTERNOON...TOWANDA-BINGHAMTON-UTICA
AROUND 3PM...SCRANTON-DELHI AROUND 5PM...MONTICELLO 6PM. ALL
TOLD...WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FRONT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STRUGGLING TO EVEN BRIEFLY REACH NEAR AN INCH...ONLY
EXPECTING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES ALSO TRICKY BECAUSE OF FRONTAL TIMING AND THICKENING
CLOUDS/DEVELOPING SHOWERS/EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. HIGHS OF MAINLY
60S WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES...MIDDAY FOR
CENTRAL ZONES...AND EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

UNTIL THE FRONT ITSELF...SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AND BATTLING
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...AND SO MUCH WILL BE
VIRGA. THEN WHEN THE FRONT AND SHOWERS-EMBEDDED THUNDER COME
THROUGH...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS EVEN
THOUGH SHEAR ITSELF IS NOMINAL...BECAUSE OF INVERTED-V LOOK TO THE
SOUNDINGS AND THUS COLD POOL PRODUCTION FROM EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

FRONTAL SHOWERS QUICKLY EXIT EAST EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY. MIXING IN OF WET SNOWFLAKES NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...BUT VAST MAJORITY WILL
NOT SEE IT AND THOSE THAT DO WILL NOT HAVE ANY ACCUMULATION. LOWS
TONIGHT GENERALLY MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTS
ON THE ORDER OF 20-30KTS BY WED MRNG. SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO WED
AFTN BFR SYSTEM DEPARTS.

HIPRES WL ASSURE QUIET WX THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LITTLE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AND NO THUNDER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS
GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DESPITE SOME DOWNSTREAM DISAGREEMENT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
STILL VFR...BUT CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AND THICKENING AHEAD OF
INCOMING COLD FRONT. EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS
ALONG FRONT WILL MOVE WNW TO ENE FROM 16Z-22Z INCLUDING MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AND SOME THUNDER...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR SPECIFICS
OF TIMING AND THUNDER /CB NOT INCLUDED FOR KSYR-KRME AT THIS TIME
BECAUSE OF LOWER PROBABILITY/. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS...WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
STRATUS CIG. HOWEVER...IMMEDIATE FRONTAL SHOWER-THUNDER BAND WILL
LIKELY INCLUDE A PUSH OF 20-25 KT GUSTS AS INDICATED IN TAFS WITHIN
THE TEMPO GROUPS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LINGERING MVFR CIGS ON
BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SAT... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
200 AM UPDATE...
DESPITE FAIRLY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PUTTING A HOLD ON FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AFTER THE RECENT WARM DRY SPELL.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 212359
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
759 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. BEHIND THAT FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
120 PM UPDATE...
CHALLENGE FOR THE TONIGHT PD REVOLVES ARND HOW QUICKLY RAIN CAN MV
IN. STRONG WAA IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACRS CWA WITH TEMPS UP IN THE
70S IN THE FINGER LKS. TROFFING LOCATED ACRS CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION WL EVENTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN HOW QUICKLY PCPN GETS HERE AND
HOW LONG IT WL LINGER.

AS OF NOW, WK LEAD S/WV LOCATED IN SRN IL AREA WL EJECT NEWD TWD CWA
OVRNGT. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCRS IN CLD CVR BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WL
NOT BE ASSOC WITH THIS WV, THUS ONLY A FEW HIT N MISS SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES EXPECTED THRU 12Z TUE ACRS WRN ZONES. HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE THAT LINE OF SHOWERS WL HV BARELY MVD INTO WRN NY BY 12Z.
WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE FAR-FETCHED TO ME WL BACK OFF ON POPS TO
JUST 20 ACRS FAR WRN ZONES THRU DAYBREAK WITH MOST OF CWA RMNG DRY
TONIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLD CVR BROUGHT IN FM AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WL KEEP TEMPS FM
DROPPING MUCH INTO THE 40S BY 12Z TUE. SW FLOW WL CONT TO DRAW IN
SFC MOISTURE WITH DWPTS RISING INTO THE 40S BY MRNG. 1 INCH PW
VALUES NOW LOCATED ACRS THE MS RVR VLY WL BE DRAWN IN ON H8 WINDS
AND INCRS TO BTWN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCHES. 12Z GFS SEEMS TO HV
INITIALIZED TOO HIGH WITH PW VALUES, POSSIBLY ALLOWING MODEL TO BRING
PCPN INTO THE AREA TOO FAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WL BE OVR THE AREA TUE MRNG AND CONT OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS CDFNT MVS THRU. HV TRIED TO NAIL DOWN TIMING OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACRS THE REGION MVG INTO FINGER LKS AREAS BY 16Z
THEN TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF CWA BY 21Z. EXPECT BASINWIDE
RAINFALL AVGS OF AROUND 0.25 INCHES DRG THE DAY TOMORROW. AS FOR
THUNDER, NAM IS INDICATING MORE INSTABILITY THAN GFS AND EURO ARE SO
WL LV MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF GRIDS. HWVR, CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT SOME POINT DRG THE AFTN. AFTN HIGHS RUN
THE GAMUT TO ARND 60 PER MAV AND ARND 70 PER MET. HV GONE SLIGHTLY
ABV MAV NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR 60S ACRS MOST OF THE REGION
THANKS TO SIGNIFICANT CLD CVR AND FROPA OCCURRING BTWN 18Z AND 00Z.

SHOWERS CONT ON TUE NGT AS UL TROF SWINGS THRU. 120+ KT SPEED MAX AT
H2 WL ENHANCE LIFT AFT MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NGT WITH CWA IN LFQ. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 20-30KTS BY WED MRNG. TEMPS WL DIP INTO THE L/M 30S AND MAY
CAUSE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW DRG THE MRNG. SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO
THE AFTN BFR SYSTEM DEPARTS.

HIPRES WL ASSURE QUIET WX THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LITTLE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AND NO THUNDER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS
GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DESPITE SOME DOWNSTREAM DISAGREEMENT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 12Z. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES DURING THE AM HOURS...EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. AS RAIN MOVES
THROUGH...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
SITES UNDER THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION TO RAIN...BOTH BGM
AND AVP STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME CONVECTION AS MAIN FRONT
PASSES. FOR NOW...HAVE ADVERTISED THUNDER POTENTIAL AT
BOTH LOCATIONS WITH A PROB30 MENTION. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALSO
EXISTS AT ITH AND ELM...HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT TO MENTION BASED ON DISTANCE INTO THE FCST CYCLE. FOLLOWING
FROPA...COLD ADVECTION STATUS WILL BECOME ENTRANCED ACROSS THE
AREA AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT-WED...SOME RESTRICTIONS AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES
TUE...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS INTO WED ON BACK SIDE
OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

LATE THU NGT-FRI... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
230 PM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 INCHES, THUS NO FIRE WX
CONCERNS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE
AVIATION...CMG
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 211850
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
250 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. BEHIND THAT FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
120 PM UPDATE...
CHALLENGE FOR THE TONIGHT PD REVOLVES ARND HOW QUICKLY RAIN CAN MV
IN. STRONG WAA IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACRS CWA WITH TEMPS UP IN THE
70S IN THE FINGER LKS. TROFFING LOCATED ACRS CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION WL EVENTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN HOW QUICKLY PCPN GETS HERE AND
HOW LONG IT WL LINGER.

AS OF NOW, WK LEAD S/WV LOCATED IN SRN IL AREA WL EJECT NEWD TWD CWA
OVRNGT. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCRS IN CLD CVR BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WL
NOT BE ASSOC WITH THIS WV, THUS ONLY A FEW HIT N MISS SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES EXPECTED THRU 12Z TUE ACRS WRN ZONES. HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE THAT LINE OF SHOWERS WL HV BARELY MVD INTO WRN NY BY 12Z.
WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE FAR-FETCHED TO ME WL BACK OFF ON POPS TO
JUST 20 ACRS FAR WRN ZONES THRU DAYBREAK WITH MOST OF CWA RMNG DRY
TONIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLD CVR BROUGHT IN FM AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WL KEEP TEMPS FM
DROPPING MUCH INTO THE 40S BY 12Z TUE. SW FLOW WL CONT TO DRAW IN
SFC MOISTURE WITH DWPTS RISING INTO THE 40S BY MRNG. 1 INCH PW
VALUES NOW LOCATED ACRS THE MS RVR VLY WL BE DRAWN IN ON H8 WINDS
AND INCRS TO BTWN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCHES. 12Z GFS SEEMS TO HV
INITIALIZED TOO HIGH WITH PW VALUES, POSSIBLY ALLOWING MODEL TO BRING
PCPN INTO THE AREA TOO FAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WL BE OVR THE AREA TUE MRNG AND CONT OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS CDFNT MVS THRU. HV TRIED TO NAIL DOWN TIMING OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACRS THE REGION MVG INTO FINGER LKS AREAS BY 16Z
THEN TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF CWA BY 21Z. EXPECT BASINWIDE
RAINFALL AVGS OF AROUND 0.25 INCHES DRG THE DAY TOMORROW. AS FOR
THUNDER, NAM IS INDICATING MORE INSTABILITY THAN GFS AND EURO ARE SO
WL LV MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF GRIDS. HWVR, CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT SOME POINT DRG THE AFTN. AFTN HIGHS RUN
THE GAMUT TO ARND 60 PER MAV AND ARND 70 PER MET. HV GONE SLIGHTLY
ABV MAV NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR 60S ACRS MOST OF THE REGION
THANKS TO SIGNIFICANT CLD CVR AND FROPA OCCURRING BTWN 18Z AND 00Z.

SHOWERS CONT ON TUE NGT AS UL TROF SWINGS THRU. 120+ KT SPEED MAX AT
H2 WL ENHANCE LIFT AFT MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NGT WITH CWA IN LFQ. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 20-30KTS BY WED MRNG. TEMPS WL DIP INTO THE L/M 30S AND MAY
CAUSE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW DRG THE MRNG. SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO
THE AFTN BFR SYSTEM DEPARTS.

HIPRES WL ASSURE QUIET WX THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LITTLE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AND NO THUNDER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS
GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DESPITE SOME DOWNSTREAM DISAGREEMENT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 15Z. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THAT THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT-WED...SOME RESTRICTIONS AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES
TUE...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS INTO WED ON BACK SIDE
OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

LATE THU NGT-FRI... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
230 PM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 INCHES, THUS NO FIRE WX
CONCERNS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE
AVIATION...MDP/MSE
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 211833
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
233 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. BEHIND THAT FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
120 PM UPDATE...
CHALLENGE FOR THE TONIGHT PD REVOLVES ARND HOW QUICKLY RAIN CAN MV
IN. STRONG WAA IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACRS CWA WITH TEMPS UP IN THE
70S IN THE FINGER LKS. TROFFING LOCATED ACRS CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION WL EVENTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN HOW QUICKLY PCPN GETS HERE AND
HOW LONG IT WL LINGER.

AS OF NOW, WK LEAD S/WV LOCATED IN SRN IL AREA WL EJECT NEWD TWD CWA
OVRNGT. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCRS IN CLD CVR BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WL
NOT BE ASSOC WITH THIS WV, THUS ONLY A FEW HIT N MISS SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES EXPECTED THRU 12Z TUE ACRS WRN ZONES. HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE THAT LINE OF SHOWERS WL HV BARELY MVD INTO WRN NY BY 12Z.
WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE FAR-FETCHED TO ME WL BACK OFF ON POPS TO
JUST 20 ACRS FAR WRN ZONES THRU DAYBREAK WITH MOST OF CWA RMNG DRY
TONIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLD CVR BROUGHT IN FM AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WL KEEP TEMPS FM
DROPPING MUCH INTO THE 40S BY 12Z TUE. SW FLOW WL CONT TO DRAW IN
SFC MOISTURE WITH DWPTS RISING INTO THE 40S BY MRNG. 1 INCH PW
VALUES NOW LOCATED ACRS THE MS RVR VLY WL BE DRAWN IN ON H8 WINDS
AND INCRS TO BTWN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCHES. 12Z GFS SEEMS TO HV
INITIALIZED TOO HIGH WITH PW VALUES, POSSIBLY ALLOWING MODEL TO BRING
PCPN INTO THE AREA TOO FAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WL BE OVR THE AREA TUE MRNG AND CONT OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS CDFNT MVS THRU. HV TRIED TO NAIL DOWN TIMING OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACRS THE REGION MVG INTO FINGER LKS AREAS BY 16Z
THEN TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF CWA BY 21Z. EXPECT BASINWIDE
RAINFALL AVGS OF AROUND 0.25 INCHES DRG THE DAY TOMORROW. AS FOR
THUNDER, NAM IS INDICATING MORE INSTABILITY THAN GFS AND EURO ARE SO
WL LV MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF GRIDS. HWVR, CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT SOME POINT DRG THE AFTN. AFTN HIGHS RUN
THE GAMUT TO ARND 60 PER MAV AND ARND 70 PER MET. HV GONE SLIGHTLY
ABV MAV NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR 60S ACRS MOST OF THE REGION
THANKS TO SIGNIFICANT CLD CVR AND FROPA OCCURRING BTWN 18Z AND 00Z.

SHOWERS CONT ON TUE NGT AS UL TROF SWINGS THRU. 120+ KT SPEED MAX AT
H2 WL ENHANCE LIFT AFT MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NGT WITH CWA IN LFQ. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 20-30KTS BY WED MRNG. TEMPS WL DIP INTO THE L/M 30S AND MAY
CAUSE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW DRG THE MRNG. SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO
THE AFTN BFR SYSTEM DEPARTS.

HIPRES WL ASSURE QUIET WX THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY...BUT THE
GENERALLY FLAT UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO USHER IN SHOWERS FOR
FRIDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS THEN SUGGEST THE PATTERN IS
SHOWING HINTS AT SLOWING DOWN AND AMPLIFYING AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF SETTING UP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY...BUT THE SIGNALS ARE THERE FOR A COOLER AND MORE
DREARY FEW DAYS WITH PASSING POSSIBLE SHOWERS AT TIMES RIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. CAN/T SAY WE ARE SETTING UP FOR A WASHOUT...BUT
THIS IS THE SEASON FOR CLOSED LOWS...AND THOSE INFAMOUS APRIL
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 15Z. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THAT THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT-WED...SOME RESTRICTIONS AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES
TUE...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS INTO WED ON BACK SIDE
OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

LATE THU NGT-FRI... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
230 PM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 INCHES, THUS NO FIRE WX
CONCERNS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MDP/MSE
FIRE WEATHER...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 211751
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
151 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY TO THE AREA
TODAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. BEHIND THAT FRONT...COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
120 PM UPDATE...
CHALLENGE FOR THE TONIGHT PD REVOLVES ARND HOW QUICKLY RAIN CAN MV
IN. STRONG WAA IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACRS CWA WITH TEMPS UP IN THE
70S IN THE FINGER LKS. TROFFING LOCATED ACRS CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION WL EVENTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN HOW QUICKLY PCPN GETS HERE AND
HOW LONG IT WL LINGER.

AS OF NOW, WK LEAD S/WV LOCATED IN SRN IL AREA WL EJECT NEWD TWD CWA
OVRNGT. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCRS IN CLD CVR BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WL
NOT BE ASSOC WITH THIS WV, THUS ONLY A FEW HIT N MISS SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES EXPECTED THRU 12Z TUE ACRS WRN ZONES. HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE THAT LINE OF SHOWERS WL HV BARELY MVD INTO WRN NY BY 12Z.
WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE FAR-FETCHED TO ME WL BACK OFF ON POPS TO
JUST 20 ACRS FAR WRN ZONES THRU DAYBREAK WITH MOST OF CWA RMNG DRY
TONIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLD CVR BROUGHT IN FM AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WL KEEP TEMPS FM
DROPPING MUCH INTO THE 40S BY 12Z TUE. SW FLOW WL CONT TO DRAW IN
SFC MOISTURE WITH DWPTS RISING INTO THE 40S BY MRNG. 1 INCH PW
VALUES NOW LOCATED ACRS THE MS RVR VLY WL BE DRAWN IN ON H8 WINDS
AND INCRS TO BTWN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCHES. 12Z GFS SEEMS TO HV
INITIALIZED TOO HIGH WITH PW VALUES, POSSIBLY ALLOWING MODEL TO BRING
PCPN INTO THE AREA TOO FAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT AND SHARPENING UPPER TROF ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE
BEEN REALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE DRIVING FEATURES...SO NOW IT IS
JUST A MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MAYBE JUST A CHANCE FOR SOME LEADING
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DURING THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS...BUT BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING RAIN WILL BE SPREADING QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE
FINGER LAKES AND TWIN TIER REGIONS. WE EXPECT THE PRECIP TO PROBABLY
NOT START IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCES LINGER IN ANY ONE AREA FOR ABOUT 3-4 HOURS BEFORE
MOVING EAST BY EARLY EVENING. SOME MODEL INDICES SUGGEST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THIS LOOKS OVERDONE,
PARTICULARLY BY THE NAM MODEL. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR
TWO GIVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING...BUT THAT/S NOT WORTH
THE FULL BLOWN MENTION OF THUNDER...STORMS.

MOVING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE LEAVES
THE AREA BY 00Z...BUT SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND DESTABILIZING
LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT DROP BELOW ZERO
AT 925-850 MB WHICH WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLY SOME WET
SNOW FLAKES. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW ABOUT 35 DEGREES. THIS WAS CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
TRENDS OFFER UP DRYING OF THE TOTAL ATMOSPHERE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EXISTS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WITH LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP. SFC-MID
LEVEL RIDGING IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL BY THURSDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE FROM TUES-WEDS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL SHORT OF THE UPPER 50S NORMALITY ON
WEDS...BUT RECOVER NICELY ON THURSDAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND
GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY...BUT THE
GENERALLY FLAT UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO USHER IN SHOWERS FOR
FRIDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS THEN SUGGEST THE PATTERN IS
SHOWING HINTS AT SLOWING DOWN AND AMPLIFYING AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF SETTING UP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY...BUT THE SIGNALS ARE THERE FOR A COOLER AND MORE
DREARY FEW DAYS WITH PASSING POSSIBLE SHOWERS AT TIMES RIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. CAN/T SAY WE ARE SETTING UP FOR A WASHOUT...BUT
THIS IS THE SEASON FOR CLOSED LOWS...AND THOSE INFAMOUS APRIL
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 15Z. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THAT THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT-WED...SOME RESTRICTIONS AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES
TUE...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS INTO WED ON BACK SIDE
OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

LATE THU NGT-FRI... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
415 AM UPDATE...
AS WITH SUNDAY...IT WILL BE VERY DRY TODAY YET WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. A LIMITED INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE WIPED OUT BY FURTHER
WARMING...SO IN THE END RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN
MAINLY THE 20S PERCENT RANGE. SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE UNDER 10 MPH...AND EVEN PEAK GUSTS WILL
ONLY BARELY ECLIPSE THAT AT TIMES. GIVEN THESE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...CONTINUED DRYING OF FUELS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
HOWEVER...A GOOD WETTING RAIN IS INBOUND FOR TUESDAY COURTESY OF A
PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUT A HOLD ON FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MDP/MSE
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 211724
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
124 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY TO THE AREA
TODAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. BEHIND THAT FRONT...COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
120 PM UPDATE...
CHALLENGE FOR THE TONIGHT PD REVOLVES ARND HOW QUICKLY RAIN CAN MV
IN. STRONG WAA IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACRS CWA WITH TEMPS UP IN THE
70S IN THE FINGER LKS. TROFFING LOCATED ACRS CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION WL EVENTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN HOW QUICKLY PCPN GETS HERE AND
HOW LONG IT WL LINGER.

AS OF NOW, WK LEAD S/WV LOCATED IN SRN IL AREA WL EJECT NEWD TWD CWA
OVRNGT. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCRS IN CLD CVR BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WL
NOT BE ASSOC WITH THIS WV, THUS ONLY A FEW HIT N MISS SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES EXPECTED THRU 12Z TUE ACRS WRN ZONES. HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE THAT LINE OF SHOWERS WL HV BARELY MVD INTO WRN NY BY 12Z.
WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE FAR-FETCHED TO ME WL BACK OFF ON POPS TO
JUST 20 ACRS FAR WRN ZONES THRU DAYBREAK WITH MOST OF CWA RMNG DRY
TONIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLD CVR BROUGHT IN FM AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WL KEEP TEMPS FM
DROPPING MUCH INTO THE 40S BY 12Z TUE. SW FLOW WL CONT TO DRAW IN
SFC MOISTURE WITH DWPTS RISING INTO THE 40S BY MRNG. 1 INCH PW
VALUES NOW LOCATED ACRS THE MS RVR VLY WL BE DRAWN IN ON H8 WINDS
AND INCRS TO BTWN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCHES. 12Z GFS SEEMS TO HV
INITIALIZED TOO HIGH WITH PW VALUES, POSSIBLY ALLOWING MODEL TO BRING
PCPN INTO THE AREA TOO FAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT AND SHARPENING UPPER TROF ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE
BEEN REALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE DRIVING FEATURES...SO NOW IT IS
JUST A MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MAYBE JUST A CHANCE FOR SOME LEADING
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DURING THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS...BUT BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING RAIN WILL BE SPREADING QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE
FINGER LAKES AND TWIN TIER REGIONS. WE EXPECT THE PRECIP TO PROBABLY
NOT START IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCES LINGER IN ANY ONE AREA FOR ABOUT 3-4 HOURS BEFORE
MOVING EAST BY EARLY EVENING. SOME MODEL INDICES SUGGEST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THIS LOOKS OVERDONE,
PARTICULARLY BY THE NAM MODEL. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR
TWO GIVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING...BUT THAT/S NOT WORTH
THE FULL BLOWN MENTION OF THUNDER...STORMS.

MOVING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE LEAVES
THE AREA BY 00Z...BUT SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND DESTABILIZING
LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT DROP BELOW ZERO
AT 925-850 MB WHICH WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLY SOME WET
SNOW FLAKES. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW ABOUT 35 DEGREES. THIS WAS CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
TRENDS OFFER UP DRYING OF THE TOTAL ATMOSPHERE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EXISTS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WITH LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP. SFC-MID
LEVEL RIDGING IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL BY THURSDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE FROM TUES-WEDS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL SHORT OF THE UPPER 50S NORMALITY ON
WEDS...BUT RECOVER NICELY ON THURSDAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND
GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY...BUT THE
GENERALLY FLAT UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO USHER IN SHOWERS FOR
FRIDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS THEN SUGGEST THE PATTERN IS
SHOWING HINTS AT SLOWING DOWN AND AMPLIFYING AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF SETTING UP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY...BUT THE SIGNALS ARE THERE FOR A COOLER AND MORE
DREARY FEW DAYS WITH PASSING POSSIBLE SHOWERS AT TIMES RIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. CAN/T SAY WE ARE SETTING UP FOR A WASHOUT...BUT
THIS IS THE SEASON FOR CLOSED LOWS...AND THOSE INFAMOUS APRIL
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH 12Z TUE. ONLY PATCHY HIGH THIN
CLOUDS ABOVE 12 KFT AGL THROUGH 00Z TUE...THEN SOME THICKENING OF
THOSE HIGH CLOUDS 00Z-12Z TUE AHEAD OF INCOMING SYSTEM YET STILL
MAINLY AROUND OR ABOVE 10 KFT. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND
EARLY WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS DURING THE DAY...ONLY
TO REVERT BACK TO LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TONIGHT. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY 12Z TUE...BUT
ANY IMPACTS FOR OUR TERMINALS WILL WAIT FOR DURING THE DAY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-WED...SOME RESTRICTIONS AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS INTO WED ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

LATE THU NGT-FRI... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
415 AM UPDATE...
AS WITH SUNDAY...IT WILL BE VERY DRY TODAY YET WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. A LIMITED INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE WIPED OUT BY FURTHER
WARMING...SO IN THE END RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN
MAINLY THE 20S PERCENT RANGE. SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE UNDER 10 MPH...AND EVEN PEAK GUSTS WILL
ONLY BARELY ECLIPSE THAT AT TIMES. GIVEN THESE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...CONTINUED DRYING OF FUELS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
HOWEVER...A GOOD WETTING RAIN IS INBOUND FOR TUESDAY COURTESY OF A
PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUT A HOLD ON FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 211420
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1020 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY TO THE AREA
TODAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. BEHIND THAT FRONT...COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
HV TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO BRING IN MID-DECK QUICKER THAN PRIOR FCST
IN CONJUNCTION WITH WV SKIRTING THRU AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
EXPECT PCLDY CONDS ACRS THE SRN TIER BY NOON THEN SLOWLY
PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EAST FM THERE, THO WITH WV RMNG ACRS NY
STATE EXPECT A GOOD CHUNK OF NEPA TO RMN MOSUNNY UNTIL EVNG HRS.

THESE CLDS WL HV LITTLE BEARING ON TEMP RISE TDA WITH KSYR ALREADY
AT 61F AS OF 14Z, WELL ON THEIR WAY INTO THE LWR 70S. NO CHGS
NEEDED TO MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTN WITH ONLY TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD
VALUES.

PREV DISCO BLO...

630 AM UPDATE...
ATTEMPTED RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM MAINLY CLEAR SKY...COMPETED
WITH FAIRLY ROBUST WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...AND SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO MOVED INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THE LAST FEW HOURS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUCH THAT ATMOSPHERE OUTSIDE OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS STAYED FAIRLY MIXED...THUS NOT AS COLD THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS INDEED REALIZED
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO THERE IS CURRENTLY A PRETTY BIG RIDGE-TO-
VALLEY SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES...AND FLATTER TERRAIN VERSUS HILLY.
MONTICELLO AT 6 AM IS ONLY 30 DEGREES...ELMIRA 35 DEGREES...AND
SIDNEY NORWICH AND CORTLAND ALSO INTO THE 30S...YET PENN YAN IS 50
DEGREES AND MANY OTHER LOCATIONS ARE IN THE 40S INCLUDING SYRACUSE
AT 47.

THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
FOR HIGHS TODAY...WITH SUN FILTERED BY SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACTUALLY RELAXES...RESULTING IN BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS DECREASING TO MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND THUS LIGHT WINDS
TODAY EVEN WHERE FULL MIXING OCCURS.

THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT...PREVENTING RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND THUS MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S. GFS MODEL IS NOW THE OUTLIER IN BRINGING IN UPPER WAVE AND
APPROACHING FRONT...AND RESULTANT QPF...IN AHEAD OF 12Z TUESDAY. I
HAVE SIDED WITH CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODELS...AND THUS KEEP TONIGHT
DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE WEST OF SYR-ITH-ELM LINE VERY LATE.
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL WAIT UNTIL DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT AND SHARPENING UPPER TROF ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE
BEEN REALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE DRIVING FEATURES...SO NOW IT IS
JUST A MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MAYBE JUST A CHANCE FOR SOME LEADING
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DURING THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS...BUT BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING RAIN WILL BE SPREADING QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE
FINGER LAKES AND TWIN TIER REGIONS. WE EXPECT THE PRECIP TO PROBABLY
NOT START IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCES LINGER IN ANY ONE AREA FOR ABOUT 3-4 HOURS BEFORE
MOVING EAST BY EARLY EVENING. SOME MODEL INDICES SUGGEST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THIS LOOKS OVERDONE,
PARTICULARLY BY THE NAM MODEL. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR
TWO GIVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING...BUT THAT/S NOT WORTH
THE FULL BLOWN MENTION OF THUNDER...STORMS.

MOVING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE LEAVES
THE AREA BY 00Z...BUT SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND DESTABILIZING
LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT DROP BELOW ZERO
AT 925-850 MB WHICH WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLY SOME WET
SNOW FLAKES. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW ABOUT 35 DEGREES. THIS WAS CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
TRENDS OFFER UP DRYING OF THE TOTAL ATMOSPHERE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EXISTS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WITH LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP. SFC-MID
LEVEL RIDGING IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL BY THURSDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE FROM TUES-WEDS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL SHORT OF THE UPPER 50S NORMALITY ON
WEDS...BUT RECOVER NICELY ON THURSDAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND
GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY...BUT THE
GENERALLY FLAT UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO USHER IN SHOWERS FOR
FRIDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS THEN SUGGEST THE PATTERN IS
SHOWING HINTS AT SLOWING DOWN AND AMPLIFYING AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF SETTING UP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY...BUT THE SIGNALS ARE THERE FOR A COOLER AND MORE
DREARY FEW DAYS WITH PASSING POSSIBLE SHOWERS AT TIMES RIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. CAN/T SAY WE ARE SETTING UP FOR A WASHOUT...BUT
THIS IS THE SEASON FOR CLOSED LOWS...AND THOSE INFAMOUS APRIL
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH 12Z TUE. ONLY PATCHY HIGH THIN
CLOUDS ABOVE 12 KFT AGL THROUGH 00Z TUE...THEN SOME THICKENING OF
THOSE HIGH CLOUDS 00Z-12Z TUE AHEAD OF INCOMING SYSTEM YET STILL
MAINLY AROUND OR ABOVE 10 KFT. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND
EARLY WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS DURING THE DAY...ONLY
TO REVERT BACK TO LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TONIGHT. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY 12Z TUE...BUT
ANY IMPACTS FOR OUR TERMINALS WILL WAIT FOR DURING THE DAY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-WED...SOME RESTRICTIONS AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS INTO WED ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

LATE THU NGT-FRI... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
415 AM UPDATE...
AS WITH SUNDAY...IT WILL BE VERY DRY TODAY YET WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. A LIMITED INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE WIPED OUT BY FURTHER
WARMING...SO IN THE END RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN
MAINLY THE 20S PERCENT RANGE. SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE UNDER 10 MPH...AND EVEN PEAK GUSTS WILL
ONLY BARELY ECLIPSE THAT AT TIMES. GIVEN THESE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...CONTINUED DRYING OF FUELS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
HOWEVER...A GOOD WETTING RAIN IS INBOUND FOR TUESDAY COURTESY OF A
PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUT A HOLD ON FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities