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000
FXUS61 KBGM 012249
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
649 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE BUT HUMID. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...
REMOVED ANY REMAINING MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS EVENING...AND
LOWERED POPS INTO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR LOWER...TIMED
AS BEST I COULD WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK WAVES OVERNIGHT. ALSO QUICKLY
LOWERED SKY GRIDS WITH RAPID DISSIPATION OF CUMULUS ONGOING.
THOUGH WE WILL HAVE INCREASING FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...SHALLOW PATCHY FOG STILL LOOKS LIKELY IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH AMOUNT OF NEAR-SURFACE HUMIDITY...AND
STILL SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AT
LOW- LEVELS AND WE ARE SEEING SOME MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WITH
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS INDICATES
MLCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG THROUGH 3 PM. MID-LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE DRY AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
ARE HAVING A HARD TIME HOLDING TOGETHER PARTLY DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL
PA NORTHWARD TO WESTERN NY WILL TEND TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH 20 OR 25 PCT COVERAGE... FOLLOWED BY SOME
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER
MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST AND TEND TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BUT COULD
STILL PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE MAINLY
IN THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHERN PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE TUESDAY. THE AMOUNT OF HEATING THAT
WE WILL SEE AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS IN QUESTION TUESDAY AS THE
DAY WILL START WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. IN
ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS SPREADING EASTWARD OVER OUR
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER THE MIDWEST.
DESPITE THESE FACTORS THE VERY WARM MOIST LOW-LEVELS WILL COMBINE
WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
TO PRODUCE MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 1000-1500 J/KG... WITH 2000
J/KG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF SEVERAL HOURS OF SOLAR HEATING CAN
OCCUR. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS EXPECTED...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LATEST 4 KM NAM INDICATES THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STORMS BY AROUND 21Z OVER CENTRAL NY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD. BASED ON THESE FACTORS THE SPC HAS PUT OUR
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES.
WILL ADD A SEVERE MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

EVERYTHING QUIETS DOWN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
WILL PROBABLY START WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG FOLLOWED BY
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WARM DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH WILL FEATURE A WEEKEND
FROPA. MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON FRI WILL GET WELL INTO THE
8OS...WITH HIGHS GNRLY IN THE 65-70 RNG BY SUN/MON. BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FNT ON SAT...WITH COOLER TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER XPCTD FOR SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THIS AFTN WITH A BKN CU DECK BUT PATCHY MVFR WILL
CONTINUE ACRS NE PA AND THE SRN TIER OF NY. POTNL FOR ISOLD/WDLY
SCT -SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTM. LATER TNGT...PATCHY MVFR VSBY`S AND CIGS...WITH ELM
LIKELY GOING BLO ALT MINS IN VLY FOG. ON TUE...XPCT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MRNG TO IMPRV TO VFR BY MID/LATE
MRNG...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CONVECTIVE LINE IS XPCTD TO
MOV ACRS THE FCST AREA AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA EARLY...THEN POTNL FOR
MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE DUE TO LOW POST-FNTL CLDS MAINLY SRN TIER OF NY.

WED-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/MSE
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 011920
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
RAIN-FREE BUT HUMID. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAA LATE
TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AT
LOW-LEVELS AND WE ARE SEEING SOME MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WITH
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS INDICATES
MLCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG THROUGH 3 PM. MID-LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE DRY AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
ARE HAVING A HARD TIME HOLDING TOGETHER PARTLY DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
CENTRAL PA NORTHWARD TO WESTERN NY WILL TEND TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN EARLY THIS EVENING WITH 20 OR 25 PCT COVERAGE... FOLLOWED
BY SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER
MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST AND TEND TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BUT COULD
STILL PRODUCE A FEW ISOALTED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVLOP OVERNIGHT IN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE MAINLY IN
THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHERN PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE TUESDAY. THE AMOUNT OF HEATING THAT
WE WILL SEE AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS IN QUESTION TUESDAY AS THE
DAY WILL START WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. IN
ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS SPREADING EASTWARD OVER OUR
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER THE MIDWEST.
DESPITE THESE FACTORS THE VERY WARM MOIST LOW-LEVELS WILL COMBINE
WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
TO PRODUCE MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 1000-1500 J/KG... WITH 2000
J/KG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF SEVERAL HOURS OF SOLAR HEATING CAN
OCCUR. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS EXPECTED...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LATEST 4 KM NAM INDICATES THE
DEVELOMENT OF A LINE OF STORMS BY AROUND 21Z OVER CENTRAL NY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD. BASED ON THESE FACTORS THE SPC HAS PUT OUR
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES.
WILL ADD A SEVERE MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

EVERYTHING QUIETS DOWN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
WILL PROBABLY START WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG FOLLOWED BY
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WARM DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST.



&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH WILL FEATURE A WEEKEND
FROPA. MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON FRI WILL GET WELL INTO THE
8OS...WITH HIGHS GNRLY IN THE 65-70 RNG BY SUN/MON. BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FNT ON SAT...WITH COOLER TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER XPCTD FOR SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THIS AFTN WITH A BKN CU DECK BUT PATCHY MVFR WILL
CONTINUE ACRS NE PA AND THE SRN TIER OF NY. POTNL FOR ISOLD/WDLY
SCT -SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTM. LATER TNGT...PATCHY MVFR VSBY`S AND CIGS...WITH ELM
LIKELY GOING BLO ALT MINS IN VLY FOG. ON TUE...XPCT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MRNG TO IMPRV TO VFR BY MID/LATE
MRNG...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CONVECTIVE LINE IS XPCTD TO
MOV ACRS THE FCST AREA AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA EARLY...THEN POTNL FOR
MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE DUE TO LOW POST-FNTL CLDS MAINLY SRN TIER OF NY.

WED-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 011809
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
209 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER THESE WILL BE QUICK
HITTING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BREAK
IN THE HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE...
NY/PA AREA IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR AT MID-LEVELS PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
12Z BUF SOUNDING ALSO SHOWING LOTS OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS
WITH WEAK CAPPING AROUND 600 MB. HOWEVER SOME HEATING MAINLY OVER
THE FINGER LAKES AREA IS COMBINING WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
LACK OF FORCING THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE TO
BE LOW BUT WITH MODERATELY HIGH CAPE VALUES ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP LATER TODAY SHOULD BE TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHTNING... GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE EVEN ISOLATED SMALL HAIL.
HOWEVER BOTTOM LINE WILL BE THAT COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE LOW
TODAY AND AM KEEPING POPS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH AMPLE
CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY AND MORE SUN FARTHER
NORTH. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE REALIZED FROM THE FINGER LAKES
TOWARD THE SYRACUSE AREAS WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM UPDATE...
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT ANOTHER SOUPY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN. HV ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO GRIDS BTWN 09Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT WITH MINS EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE M/U 60S AND DWPTS
RMNG ABOUT THE SAME. THINK THAT ANY SCTD CONVECTION WL DISSIPATE
AFT 03Z TONIGHT AS HTG WANES AND WILL SIDE TWD NO PCPN FOR TONIGHT
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS TROF APPCHS FM THE WEST AND UPGLIDE
BEGINS TO INCRS ACRS WRN ZONES TWD DAYBREAK. WITH GOM OPENING BACK
UP AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND PW VALUES INCRSG TO 1.50 INCHES THRU 12Z
FEEL SLGT CHC POPS WARRANTED.

FRONT WILL MV THRU FA BY TUE EVNG. AHD OF FRONT ATMOSPHERE WL BCM
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES POSSIBLY APPCH 1000 J/KG DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS. EXPECT EARLY MRNG TO SEE PATCHY FOG DISSIPATE BY 14Z, WITH
SCTD SHOWERS CONTINUING OVR CWA IN SATURATED AIRMASS. AFT 16Z,
EXPECT IMPACT FM FRONTAL BNDRY TO BE FELT IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF
CONVECTION MVG IN FM THE NW. TSTMS WL BE SUPPORTED BY RRQ OF UL JET
STREAK ROTATING ARND BASE OF TROF. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO TUE AFTN
AS CDFNT IMPACTS AREA DRG PRIME DIURNAL HTG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES RANGING FM 35-40KTS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AHD OF FNT WL WARM TO
NR 80 ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE TEMPS WL LKLY BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS
AND M/U 80S OVR FAR SE CNTYS.

FROPA OCCURS THRU ENTIRE CWA AT 00Z WITH LINGERING POPS OVRNGT.
THUNDER CHCS LOOK TO DIMINISH AFT 03Z AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION WITH JUST LINGERING SHOWERS WORKING SEWD THRU 06Z.
PRTLY-MOCLDY SKIES EXPECTED THRU 12Z WED WITH DWPTS AND TEMPS VRY
SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE LWR 60S BY MRNG ON NW FLOW.

SFC HIPRES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW WL BE IN PLACE DRG THE DAY WED WITH
A FULL DAY OF DRYING EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY WITH DWPTS
ONLY IN THE 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL REIGN SUPREME THRU END OF SHORT TERM. ALOFT
EXPECT JUST FLAT ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE. APPEARS TO BE A PERFECT
NIGHT FOR RADNL VLY FOG WED NGT BUT TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN GRIDS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH WILL FEATURE A WEEKEND
FROPA. MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON FRI WILL GET WELL INTO THE
8OS...WITH HIGHS GNRLY IN THE 65-70 RNG BY SUN/MON. BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FNT ON SAT...WITH COOLER TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER XPCTD FOR SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THIS AFTN WITH A BKN CU DECK BUT PATCHY MVFR WILL
CONTINUE ACRS NE PA AND THE SRN TIER OF NY. POTNL FOR ISOLD/WDLY
SCT -SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTM. LATER TNGT...PATCHY MVFR VSBY`S AND CIGS...WITH ELM
LIKELY GOING BLO ALT MINS IN VLY FOG. ON TUE...XPCT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MRNG TO IMPRV TO VFR BY MID/LATE
MRNG...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CONVECTIVE LINE IS XPCTD TO
MOV ACRS THE FCST AREA AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA EARLY...THEN POTNL FOR
MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE DUE TO LOW POST-FNTL CLDS MAINLY SRN TIER OF NY.

WED-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...MSE/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 011809
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
209 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER THESE WILL BE QUICK
HITTING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BREAK
IN THE HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE...
NY/PA AREA IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR AT MID-LEVELS PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
12Z BUF SOUNDING ALSO SHOWING LOTS OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS
WITH WEAK CAPPING AROUND 600 MB. HOWEVER SOME HEATING MAINLY OVER
THE FINGER LAKES AREA IS COMBINING WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
LACK OF FORCING THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE TO
BE LOW BUT WITH MODERATELY HIGH CAPE VALUES ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP LATER TODAY SHOULD BE TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHTNING... GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE EVEN ISOLATED SMALL HAIL.
HOWEVER BOTTOM LINE WILL BE THAT COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE LOW
TODAY AND AM KEEPING POPS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH AMPLE
CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY AND MORE SUN FARTHER
NORTH. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE REALIZED FROM THE FINGER LAKES
TOWARD THE SYRACUSE AREAS WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM UPDATE...
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT ANOTHER SOUPY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN. HV ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO GRIDS BTWN 09Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT WITH MINS EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE M/U 60S AND DWPTS
RMNG ABOUT THE SAME. THINK THAT ANY SCTD CONVECTION WL DISSIPATE
AFT 03Z TONIGHT AS HTG WANES AND WILL SIDE TWD NO PCPN FOR TONIGHT
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS TROF APPCHS FM THE WEST AND UPGLIDE
BEGINS TO INCRS ACRS WRN ZONES TWD DAYBREAK. WITH GOM OPENING BACK
UP AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND PW VALUES INCRSG TO 1.50 INCHES THRU 12Z
FEEL SLGT CHC POPS WARRANTED.

FRONT WILL MV THRU FA BY TUE EVNG. AHD OF FRONT ATMOSPHERE WL BCM
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES POSSIBLY APPCH 1000 J/KG DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS. EXPECT EARLY MRNG TO SEE PATCHY FOG DISSIPATE BY 14Z, WITH
SCTD SHOWERS CONTINUING OVR CWA IN SATURATED AIRMASS. AFT 16Z,
EXPECT IMPACT FM FRONTAL BNDRY TO BE FELT IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF
CONVECTION MVG IN FM THE NW. TSTMS WL BE SUPPORTED BY RRQ OF UL JET
STREAK ROTATING ARND BASE OF TROF. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO TUE AFTN
AS CDFNT IMPACTS AREA DRG PRIME DIURNAL HTG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES RANGING FM 35-40KTS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AHD OF FNT WL WARM TO
NR 80 ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE TEMPS WL LKLY BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS
AND M/U 80S OVR FAR SE CNTYS.

FROPA OCCURS THRU ENTIRE CWA AT 00Z WITH LINGERING POPS OVRNGT.
THUNDER CHCS LOOK TO DIMINISH AFT 03Z AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION WITH JUST LINGERING SHOWERS WORKING SEWD THRU 06Z.
PRTLY-MOCLDY SKIES EXPECTED THRU 12Z WED WITH DWPTS AND TEMPS VRY
SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE LWR 60S BY MRNG ON NW FLOW.

SFC HIPRES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW WL BE IN PLACE DRG THE DAY WED WITH
A FULL DAY OF DRYING EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY WITH DWPTS
ONLY IN THE 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL REIGN SUPREME THRU END OF SHORT TERM. ALOFT
EXPECT JUST FLAT ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE. APPEARS TO BE A PERFECT
NIGHT FOR RADNL VLY FOG WED NGT BUT TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN GRIDS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH WILL FEATURE A WEEKEND
FROPA. MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON FRI WILL GET WELL INTO THE
8OS...WITH HIGHS GNRLY IN THE 65-70 RNG BY SUN/MON. BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FNT ON SAT...WITH COOLER TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER XPCTD FOR SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THIS AFTN WITH A BKN CU DECK BUT PATCHY MVFR WILL
CONTINUE ACRS NE PA AND THE SRN TIER OF NY. POTNL FOR ISOLD/WDLY
SCT -SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTM. LATER TNGT...PATCHY MVFR VSBY`S AND CIGS...WITH ELM
LIKELY GOING BLO ALT MINS IN VLY FOG. ON TUE...XPCT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY MRNG TO IMPRV TO VFR BY MID/LATE
MRNG...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CONVECTIVE LINE IS XPCTD TO
MOV ACRS THE FCST AREA AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA EARLY...THEN POTNL FOR
MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE DUE TO LOW POST-FNTL CLDS MAINLY SRN TIER OF NY.

WED-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...MSE/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 011708
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
108 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER THESE WILL BE QUICK
HITTING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BREAK
IN THE HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE...
NY/PA AREA IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR AT MID-LEVELS PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
12Z BUF SOUNDING ALSO SHOWING LOTS OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS
WITH WEAK CAPPING AROUND 600 MB. HOWEVER SOME HEATING MAINLY OVER
THE FINGER LAKES AREA IS COMBINING WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
LACK OF FORCING THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE TO
BE LOW BUT WITH MODERATELY HIGH CAPE VALUES ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP LATER TODAY SHOULD BE TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHTNING... GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE EVEN ISOLATED SMALL HAIL.
HOWEVER BOTTOM LINE WILL BE THAT COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE LOW
TODAY AND AM KEEPING POPS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH AMPLE
CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY AND MORE SUN FARTHER
NORTH. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE REALIZED FROM THE FINGER LAKES
TOWARD THE SYRACUSE AREAS WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM UPDATE...
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT ANOTHER SOUPY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN. HV ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO GRIDS BTWN 09Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT WITH MINS EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE M/U 60S AND DWPTS
RMNG ABOUT THE SAME. THINK THAT ANY SCTD CONVECTION WL DISSIPATE
AFT 03Z TONIGHT AS HTG WANES AND WILL SIDE TWD NO PCPN FOR TONIGHT
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS TROF APPCHS FM THE WEST AND UPGLIDE
BEGINS TO INCRS ACRS WRN ZONES TWD DAYBREAK. WITH GOM OPENING BACK
UP AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND PW VALUES INCRSG TO 1.50 INCHES THRU 12Z
FEEL SLGT CHC POPS WARRANTED.

FRONT WILL MV THRU FA BY TUE EVNG. AHD OF FRONT ATMOSPHERE WL BCM
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES POSSIBLY APPCH 1000 J/KG DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS. EXPECT EARLY MRNG TO SEE PATCHY FOG DISSIPATE BY 14Z, WITH
SCTD SHOWERS CONTINUING OVR CWA IN SATURATED AIRMASS. AFT 16Z,
EXPECT IMPACT FM FRONTAL BNDRY TO BE FELT IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF
CONVECTION MVG IN FM THE NW. TSTMS WL BE SUPPORTED BY RRQ OF UL JET
STREAK ROTATING ARND BASE OF TROF. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO TUE AFTN
AS CDFNT IMPACTS AREA DRG PRIME DIURNAL HTG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES RANGING FM 35-40KTS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AHD OF FNT WL WARM TO
NR 80 ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE TEMPS WL LKLY BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS
AND M/U 80S OVR FAR SE CNTYS.

FROPA OCCURS THRU ENTIRE CWA AT 00Z WITH LINGERING POPS OVRNGT.
THUNDER CHCS LOOK TO DIMINISH AFT 03Z AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION WITH JUST LINGERING SHOWERS WORKING SEWD THRU 06Z.
PRTLY-MOCLDY SKIES EXPECTED THRU 12Z WED WITH DWPTS AND TEMPS VRY
SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE LWR 60S BY MRNG ON NW FLOW.

SFC HIPRES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW WL BE IN PLACE DRG THE DAY WED WITH
A FULL DAY OF DRYING EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY WITH DWPTS
ONLY IN THE 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL REIGN SUPREME THRU END OF SHORT TERM. ALOFT
EXPECT JUST FLAT ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE. APPEARS TO BE A PERFECT
NIGHT FOR RADNL VLY FOG WED NGT BUT TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN GRIDS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MON UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH 14-16Z. THE WORST CONDS (IFR/LIFR) WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT
KELM WITH DENSE VLY FOG...BUT OCNL IFR COULD ALSO BE SEEN AT KBGM
AND KITH. CIG BASES/RESIDUAL FOG SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT WITH TIME LTR
THIS MRNG...WITH VFR FORESEEN AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL LTR THIS AFTN IN THE 20-00Z WINDOW...BUT IT
STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE...THUS WE`LL
CONTINUE NOT TO INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TERMINALS ATTM.

BLYR FLOW APPEARS TO BE A BIT STGR TNT...SO AT LEAST THE EXTENT OF
FOG DVLPMT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS. HOWEVER...WE FEEL KELM COULD
STILL EXPERIENCE SOME FOG RIGHT TWDS DAYBREAK...SO WE INTRODUCE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR AT THIS SITE AFTER 08Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY
KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...MSE/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 011708
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
108 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER THESE WILL BE QUICK
HITTING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BREAK
IN THE HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE...
NY/PA AREA IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR AT MID-LEVELS PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
12Z BUF SOUNDING ALSO SHOWING LOTS OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS
WITH WEAK CAPPING AROUND 600 MB. HOWEVER SOME HEATING MAINLY OVER
THE FINGER LAKES AREA IS COMBINING WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
LACK OF FORCING THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE TO
BE LOW BUT WITH MODERATELY HIGH CAPE VALUES ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP LATER TODAY SHOULD BE TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHTNING... GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE EVEN ISOLATED SMALL HAIL.
HOWEVER BOTTOM LINE WILL BE THAT COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE LOW
TODAY AND AM KEEPING POPS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH AMPLE
CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY AND MORE SUN FARTHER
NORTH. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE REALIZED FROM THE FINGER LAKES
TOWARD THE SYRACUSE AREAS WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM UPDATE...
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT ANOTHER SOUPY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN. HV ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO GRIDS BTWN 09Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT WITH MINS EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE M/U 60S AND DWPTS
RMNG ABOUT THE SAME. THINK THAT ANY SCTD CONVECTION WL DISSIPATE
AFT 03Z TONIGHT AS HTG WANES AND WILL SIDE TWD NO PCPN FOR TONIGHT
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS TROF APPCHS FM THE WEST AND UPGLIDE
BEGINS TO INCRS ACRS WRN ZONES TWD DAYBREAK. WITH GOM OPENING BACK
UP AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND PW VALUES INCRSG TO 1.50 INCHES THRU 12Z
FEEL SLGT CHC POPS WARRANTED.

FRONT WILL MV THRU FA BY TUE EVNG. AHD OF FRONT ATMOSPHERE WL BCM
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES POSSIBLY APPCH 1000 J/KG DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS. EXPECT EARLY MRNG TO SEE PATCHY FOG DISSIPATE BY 14Z, WITH
SCTD SHOWERS CONTINUING OVR CWA IN SATURATED AIRMASS. AFT 16Z,
EXPECT IMPACT FM FRONTAL BNDRY TO BE FELT IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF
CONVECTION MVG IN FM THE NW. TSTMS WL BE SUPPORTED BY RRQ OF UL JET
STREAK ROTATING ARND BASE OF TROF. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO TUE AFTN
AS CDFNT IMPACTS AREA DRG PRIME DIURNAL HTG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES RANGING FM 35-40KTS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AHD OF FNT WL WARM TO
NR 80 ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE TEMPS WL LKLY BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS
AND M/U 80S OVR FAR SE CNTYS.

FROPA OCCURS THRU ENTIRE CWA AT 00Z WITH LINGERING POPS OVRNGT.
THUNDER CHCS LOOK TO DIMINISH AFT 03Z AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION WITH JUST LINGERING SHOWERS WORKING SEWD THRU 06Z.
PRTLY-MOCLDY SKIES EXPECTED THRU 12Z WED WITH DWPTS AND TEMPS VRY
SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE LWR 60S BY MRNG ON NW FLOW.

SFC HIPRES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW WL BE IN PLACE DRG THE DAY WED WITH
A FULL DAY OF DRYING EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY WITH DWPTS
ONLY IN THE 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL REIGN SUPREME THRU END OF SHORT TERM. ALOFT
EXPECT JUST FLAT ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE. APPEARS TO BE A PERFECT
NIGHT FOR RADNL VLY FOG WED NGT BUT TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN GRIDS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MON UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH 14-16Z. THE WORST CONDS (IFR/LIFR) WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT
KELM WITH DENSE VLY FOG...BUT OCNL IFR COULD ALSO BE SEEN AT KBGM
AND KITH. CIG BASES/RESIDUAL FOG SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT WITH TIME LTR
THIS MRNG...WITH VFR FORESEEN AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL LTR THIS AFTN IN THE 20-00Z WINDOW...BUT IT
STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE...THUS WE`LL
CONTINUE NOT TO INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TERMINALS ATTM.

BLYR FLOW APPEARS TO BE A BIT STGR TNT...SO AT LEAST THE EXTENT OF
FOG DVLPMT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS. HOWEVER...WE FEEL KELM COULD
STILL EXPERIENCE SOME FOG RIGHT TWDS DAYBREAK...SO WE INTRODUCE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR AT THIS SITE AFTER 08Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY
KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...MSE/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 011049
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
649 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER THESE WILL BE QUICK
HITTING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BREAK
IN THE HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM UPDATE...
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT ANOTHER SOUPY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN. HV ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO GRIDS BTWN 09Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT WITH MINS EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE M/U 60S AND DWPTS
RMNG ABOUT THE SAME. THINK THAT ANY SCTD CONVECTION WL DISSIPATE
AFT 03Z TONIGHT AS HTG WANES AND WILL SIDE TWD NO PCPN FOR TONIGHT
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS TROF APPCHS FM THE WEST AND UPGLIDE
BEGINS TO INCRS ACRS WRN ZONES TWD DAYBREAK. WITH GOM OPENING BACK
UP AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND PW VALUES INCRSG TO 1.50 INCHES THRU 12Z
FEEL SLGT CHC POPS WARRANTED.

FRONT WILL MV THRU FA BY TUE EVNG. AHD OF FRONT ATMOSPHERE WL BCM
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES POSSIBLY APPCH 1000 J/KG DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS. EXPECT EARLY MRNG TO SEE PATCHY FOG DISSIPATE BY 14Z, WITH
SCTD SHOWERS CONTINUING OVR CWA IN SATURATED AIRMASS. AFT 16Z,
EXPECT IMPACT FM FRONTAL BNDRY TO BE FELT IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF
CONVECTION MVG IN FM THE NW. TSTMS WL BE SUPPORTED BY RRQ OF UL JET
STREAK ROTATING ARND BASE OF TROF. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO TUE AFTN
AS CDFNT IMPACTS AREA DRG PRIME DIURNAL HTG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES RANGING FM 35-40KTS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AHD OF FNT WL WARM TO
NR 80 ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE TEMPS WL LKLY BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS
AND M/U 80S OVR FAR SE CNTYS.

FROPA OCCURS THRU ENTIRE CWA AT 00Z WITH LINGERING POPS OVRNGT.
THUNDER CHCS LOOK TO DIMINISH AFT 03Z AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION WITH JUST LINGERING SHOWERS WORKING SEWD THRU 06Z.
PRTLY-MOCLDY SKIES EXPECTED THRU 12Z WED WITH DWPTS AND TEMPS VRY
SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE LWR 60S BY MRNG ON NW FLOW.

SFC HIPRES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW WL BE IN PLACE DRG THE DAY WED WITH
A FULL DAY OF DRYING EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY WITH DWPTS
ONLY IN THE 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL REIGN SUPREME THRU END OF SHORT TERM. ALOFT
EXPECT JUST FLAT ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE. APPEARS TO BE A PERFECT
NIGHT FOR RADNL VLY FOG WED NGT BUT TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN GRIDS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MON UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH 14-16Z. THE WORST CONDS (IFR/LIFR) WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT
KELM WITH DENSE VLY FOG...BUT OCNL IFR COULD ALSO BE SEEN AT KBGM
AND KITH. CIG BASES/RESIDUAL FOG SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT WITH TIME LTR
THIS MRNG...WITH VFR FORESEEN AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL LTR THIS AFTN IN THE 20-00Z WINDOW...BUT IT
STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE...THUS WE`LL
CONTINUE NOT TO INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TERMINALS ATTM.

BLYR FLOW APPEARS TO BE A BIT STGR TNT...SO AT LEAST THE EXTENT OF
FOG DVLPMT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS. HOWEVER...WE FEEL KELM COULD
STILL EXPERIENCE SOME FOG RIGHT TWDS DAYBREAK...SO WE INTRODUCE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR AT THIS SITE AFTER 08Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY
KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 011049
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
649 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER THESE WILL BE QUICK
HITTING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BREAK
IN THE HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM UPDATE...
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT ANOTHER SOUPY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN. HV ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO GRIDS BTWN 09Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT WITH MINS EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE M/U 60S AND DWPTS
RMNG ABOUT THE SAME. THINK THAT ANY SCTD CONVECTION WL DISSIPATE
AFT 03Z TONIGHT AS HTG WANES AND WILL SIDE TWD NO PCPN FOR TONIGHT
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS TROF APPCHS FM THE WEST AND UPGLIDE
BEGINS TO INCRS ACRS WRN ZONES TWD DAYBREAK. WITH GOM OPENING BACK
UP AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND PW VALUES INCRSG TO 1.50 INCHES THRU 12Z
FEEL SLGT CHC POPS WARRANTED.

FRONT WILL MV THRU FA BY TUE EVNG. AHD OF FRONT ATMOSPHERE WL BCM
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES POSSIBLY APPCH 1000 J/KG DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS. EXPECT EARLY MRNG TO SEE PATCHY FOG DISSIPATE BY 14Z, WITH
SCTD SHOWERS CONTINUING OVR CWA IN SATURATED AIRMASS. AFT 16Z,
EXPECT IMPACT FM FRONTAL BNDRY TO BE FELT IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF
CONVECTION MVG IN FM THE NW. TSTMS WL BE SUPPORTED BY RRQ OF UL JET
STREAK ROTATING ARND BASE OF TROF. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO TUE AFTN
AS CDFNT IMPACTS AREA DRG PRIME DIURNAL HTG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES RANGING FM 35-40KTS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AHD OF FNT WL WARM TO
NR 80 ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE TEMPS WL LKLY BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS
AND M/U 80S OVR FAR SE CNTYS.

FROPA OCCURS THRU ENTIRE CWA AT 00Z WITH LINGERING POPS OVRNGT.
THUNDER CHCS LOOK TO DIMINISH AFT 03Z AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION WITH JUST LINGERING SHOWERS WORKING SEWD THRU 06Z.
PRTLY-MOCLDY SKIES EXPECTED THRU 12Z WED WITH DWPTS AND TEMPS VRY
SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE LWR 60S BY MRNG ON NW FLOW.

SFC HIPRES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW WL BE IN PLACE DRG THE DAY WED WITH
A FULL DAY OF DRYING EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY WITH DWPTS
ONLY IN THE 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL REIGN SUPREME THRU END OF SHORT TERM. ALOFT
EXPECT JUST FLAT ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE. APPEARS TO BE A PERFECT
NIGHT FOR RADNL VLY FOG WED NGT BUT TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN GRIDS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MON UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH 14-16Z. THE WORST CONDS (IFR/LIFR) WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT
KELM WITH DENSE VLY FOG...BUT OCNL IFR COULD ALSO BE SEEN AT KBGM
AND KITH. CIG BASES/RESIDUAL FOG SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT WITH TIME LTR
THIS MRNG...WITH VFR FORESEEN AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL LTR THIS AFTN IN THE 20-00Z WINDOW...BUT IT
STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE...THUS WE`LL
CONTINUE NOT TO INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TERMINALS ATTM.

BLYR FLOW APPEARS TO BE A BIT STGR TNT...SO AT LEAST THE EXTENT OF
FOG DVLPMT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS. HOWEVER...WE FEEL KELM COULD
STILL EXPERIENCE SOME FOG RIGHT TWDS DAYBREAK...SO WE INTRODUCE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR AT THIS SITE AFTER 08Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY
KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 010653
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
253 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER THESE WILL BE QUICK
HITTING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BREAK
IN THE HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM UPDATE...
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT ANOTHER SOUPY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN. HV ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO GRIDS BTWN 09Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT WITH MINS EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE M/U 60S AND DWPTS
RMNG ABOUT THE SAME. THINK THAT ANY SCTD CONVECTION WL DISSIPATE
AFT 03Z TONIGHT AS HTG WANES AND WILL SIDE TWD NO PCPN FOR TONIGHT
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS TROF APPCHS FM THE WEST AND UPGLIDE
BEGINS TO INCRS ACRS WRN ZONES TWD DAYBREAK. WITH GOM OPENING BACK
UP AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND PW VALUES INCRSG TO 1.50 INCHES THRU 12Z
FEEL SLGT CHC POPS WARRANTED.

FRONT WILL MV THRU FA BY TUE EVNG. AHD OF FRONT ATMOSPHERE WL BCM
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES POSSIBLY APPCH 1000 J/KG DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS. EXPECT EARLY MRNG TO SEE PATCHY FOG DISSIPATE BY 14Z, WITH
SCTD SHOWERS CONTINUING OVR CWA IN SATURATED AIRMASS. AFT 16Z,
EXPECT IMPACT FM FRONTAL BNDRY TO BE FELT IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF
CONVECTION MVG IN FM THE NW. TSTMS WL BE SUPPORTED BY RRQ OF UL JET
STREAK ROTATING ARND BASE OF TROF. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO TUE AFTN
AS CDFNT IMPACTS AREA DRG PRIME DIURNAL HTG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES RANGING FM 35-40KTS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AHD OF FNT WL WARM TO
NR 80 ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE TEMPS WL LKLY BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS
AND M/U 80S OVR FAR SE CNTYS.

FROPA OCCURS THRU ENTIRE CWA AT 00Z WITH LINGERING POPS OVRNGT.
THUNDER CHCS LOOK TO DIMINISH AFT 03Z AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION WITH JUST LINGERING SHOWERS WORKING SEWD THRU 06Z.
PRTLY-MOCLDY SKIES EXPECTED THRU 12Z WED WITH DWPTS AND TEMPS VRY
SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE LWR 60S BY MRNG ON NW FLOW.

SFC HIPRES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW WL BE IN PLACE DRG THE DAY WED WITH
A FULL DAY OF DRYING EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY WITH DWPTS
ONLY IN THE 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL REIGN SUPREME THRU END OF SHORT TERM. ALOFT
EXPECT JUST FLAT ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE. APPEARS TO BE A PERFECT
NIGHT FOR RADNL VLY FOG WED NGT BUT TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN GRIDS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MON UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY THIS MRNG. IFR CONDS SHOULD BE THE MOST PREVALENT AT
KELM/KBGM/KITH...WITH OCNL IFR CIGS ALSO PSBL AT KRME/KSYR/KAVP IN
THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME. FM 13-16Z...CIG BASES SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT...WITH VFR FORESEEN AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL IN THE 20-00Z WINDOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS
THAT COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE...THUS WE`LL CONTINUE NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TERMINALS ATTM.

ALTHOUGH IT`S CERTAINLY PSBL THAT SOME FOG/HZ COULD DVLP AGN LTR
THIS EVE...FOR NOW WE`LL KEEP THINGS VFR THROUGH 06Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY
KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 010653
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
253 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER THESE WILL BE QUICK
HITTING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BREAK
IN THE HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM UPDATE...
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT ANOTHER SOUPY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN. HV ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO GRIDS BTWN 09Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT WITH MINS EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE M/U 60S AND DWPTS
RMNG ABOUT THE SAME. THINK THAT ANY SCTD CONVECTION WL DISSIPATE
AFT 03Z TONIGHT AS HTG WANES AND WILL SIDE TWD NO PCPN FOR TONIGHT
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS TROF APPCHS FM THE WEST AND UPGLIDE
BEGINS TO INCRS ACRS WRN ZONES TWD DAYBREAK. WITH GOM OPENING BACK
UP AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND PW VALUES INCRSG TO 1.50 INCHES THRU 12Z
FEEL SLGT CHC POPS WARRANTED.

FRONT WILL MV THRU FA BY TUE EVNG. AHD OF FRONT ATMOSPHERE WL BCM
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES POSSIBLY APPCH 1000 J/KG DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS. EXPECT EARLY MRNG TO SEE PATCHY FOG DISSIPATE BY 14Z, WITH
SCTD SHOWERS CONTINUING OVR CWA IN SATURATED AIRMASS. AFT 16Z,
EXPECT IMPACT FM FRONTAL BNDRY TO BE FELT IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF
CONVECTION MVG IN FM THE NW. TSTMS WL BE SUPPORTED BY RRQ OF UL JET
STREAK ROTATING ARND BASE OF TROF. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO TUE AFTN
AS CDFNT IMPACTS AREA DRG PRIME DIURNAL HTG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES RANGING FM 35-40KTS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AHD OF FNT WL WARM TO
NR 80 ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE TEMPS WL LKLY BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS
AND M/U 80S OVR FAR SE CNTYS.

FROPA OCCURS THRU ENTIRE CWA AT 00Z WITH LINGERING POPS OVRNGT.
THUNDER CHCS LOOK TO DIMINISH AFT 03Z AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION WITH JUST LINGERING SHOWERS WORKING SEWD THRU 06Z.
PRTLY-MOCLDY SKIES EXPECTED THRU 12Z WED WITH DWPTS AND TEMPS VRY
SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE LWR 60S BY MRNG ON NW FLOW.

SFC HIPRES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW WL BE IN PLACE DRG THE DAY WED WITH
A FULL DAY OF DRYING EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY WITH DWPTS
ONLY IN THE 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL REIGN SUPREME THRU END OF SHORT TERM. ALOFT
EXPECT JUST FLAT ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE. APPEARS TO BE A PERFECT
NIGHT FOR RADNL VLY FOG WED NGT BUT TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN GRIDS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MON UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY THIS MRNG. IFR CONDS SHOULD BE THE MOST PREVALENT AT
KELM/KBGM/KITH...WITH OCNL IFR CIGS ALSO PSBL AT KRME/KSYR/KAVP IN
THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME. FM 13-16Z...CIG BASES SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT...WITH VFR FORESEEN AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL IN THE 20-00Z WINDOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS
THAT COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE...THUS WE`LL CONTINUE NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TERMINALS ATTM.

ALTHOUGH IT`S CERTAINLY PSBL THAT SOME FOG/HZ COULD DVLP AGN LTR
THIS EVE...FOR NOW WE`LL KEEP THINGS VFR THROUGH 06Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY
KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 010538
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
138 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MON UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY THIS MRNG. IFR CONDS SHOULD BE THE MOST PREVALENT AT
KELM/KBGM/KITH...WITH OCNL IFR CIGS ALSO PSBL AT KRME/KSYR/KAVP IN
THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME. FM 13-16Z...CIG BASES SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT...WITH VFR FORESEEN AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL IN THE 20-00Z WINDOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS
THAT COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE...THUS WE`LL CONTINUE NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TERMINALS ATTM.

ALTHOUGH IT`S CERTAINLY PSBL THAT SOME FOG/HZ COULD DVLP AGN LTR
THIS EVE...FOR NOW WE`LL KEEP THINGS VFR THROUGH 06Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY
KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 010538
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
138 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MON UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY THIS MRNG. IFR CONDS SHOULD BE THE MOST PREVALENT AT
KELM/KBGM/KITH...WITH OCNL IFR CIGS ALSO PSBL AT KRME/KSYR/KAVP IN
THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME. FM 13-16Z...CIG BASES SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT...WITH VFR FORESEEN AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL IN THE 20-00Z WINDOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS
THAT COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE...THUS WE`LL CONTINUE NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TERMINALS ATTM.

ALTHOUGH IT`S CERTAINLY PSBL THAT SOME FOG/HZ COULD DVLP AGN LTR
THIS EVE...FOR NOW WE`LL KEEP THINGS VFR THROUGH 06Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY
KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 010510
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
110 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER WAVE OUTPACES
SURFACE FRONT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...AND LAST
OF SCT SHRA WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS UPPER WAVE EXITS.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AND NEVER
QUITE GET THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS
UPPER WAVE EXITS...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRAPPED
UNDER SUBTLE INVERSION...WITH NO PUSH OF DRIER AIR DUE TO LACK OF
PROGRESS OF SURFACE FRONT. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING HIGH...AND AMBIENT MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL TODAY...EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF FUEL ALT REQ MVFR-TO-IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INDEED...WORSE-THAN-IFR MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY KELM WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW THERE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. WEAK FLOW MONDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLOW PACE FOR
IMPROVEMENT DUE TO LACK OF MIXING . EXPECTING CIG TO REMAIN AT
LEAST MVFR INTO LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OR
SCATTERING. WINDS LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN WSW 4-8 KTS
AFTER MID MORNING MONDAY. A FEW SHRA- TSRA MAY DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE TOWARDS KAVP...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE NOR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 010510
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
110 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER WAVE OUTPACES
SURFACE FRONT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...AND LAST
OF SCT SHRA WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS UPPER WAVE EXITS.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AND NEVER
QUITE GET THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS
UPPER WAVE EXITS...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRAPPED
UNDER SUBTLE INVERSION...WITH NO PUSH OF DRIER AIR DUE TO LACK OF
PROGRESS OF SURFACE FRONT. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING HIGH...AND AMBIENT MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL TODAY...EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF FUEL ALT REQ MVFR-TO-IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INDEED...WORSE-THAN-IFR MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY KELM WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW THERE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. WEAK FLOW MONDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLOW PACE FOR
IMPROVEMENT DUE TO LACK OF MIXING . EXPECTING CIG TO REMAIN AT
LEAST MVFR INTO LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OR
SCATTERING. WINDS LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN WSW 4-8 KTS
AFTER MID MORNING MONDAY. A FEW SHRA- TSRA MAY DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE TOWARDS KAVP...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE NOR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 010359
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1159 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
HV OPTED TO LWR POPS FOR THE RMNDR OF THE OVRNGT. WK WV LOCATED
OVR SEPA MAY SPREAD AN ISOLD SHOWER AND/OR SPRINKLES INTO NEPA
TONIGHT. THUS HV MAINTAINED SLGT CHC ACRS FAR SE ZONES WITH AREAS
OF FOG EXPECTED CWA-WIDE. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...

800 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE WINDING DOWN WITH JUST A FEW WEAK LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS LEFT. CLOUDY SKIES ARE DOMINATING THE REGION. THERE
IS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE FAR WESTERN BORDER OF NY.
SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS WEAK MID LVL RIDGING
IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BRING A
POCKET OF DRY AIR. FOG IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FACT THAT WE
STILL HAVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE
CWA.

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TONIGHT AS RAIN HAVE MOSTLY MOVED OUT
OF THE AREA EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. ALSO DECIDED TO TAKE OUT
THE MENTION ON THUNDER... BELIEVE THE THREAT IS OVER. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND
HAS BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURRING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPMNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE
2NDRY WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON
MRNG. IT WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY
WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER WAVE OUTPACES
SURFACE FRONT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...AND LAST
OF SCT SHRA WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS UPPER WAVE EXITS.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AND NEVER
QUITE GET THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS
UPPER WAVE EXITS...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRAPPED
UNDER SUBTLE INVERSION...WITH NO PUSH OF DRIER AIR DUE TO LACK OF
PROGRESS OF SURFACE FRONT. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING HIGH...AND AMBIENT MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL TODAY...EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF FUEL ALT REQ MVFR-TO-IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INDEED...WORSE-THAN-IFR MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY KELM WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW THERE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. WEAK FLOW MONDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLOW PACE FOR
IMPROVEMENT DUE TO LACK OF MIXING . EXPECTING CIG TO REMAIN AT
LEAST MVFR INTO LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OR
SCATTERING. WINDS LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN WSW 4-8 KTS
AFTER MID MORNING MONDAY. A FEW SHRA- TSRA MAY DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE TOWARDS KAVP...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE NOR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KAH/PVN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 010359
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1159 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
HV OPTED TO LWR POPS FOR THE RMNDR OF THE OVRNGT. WK WV LOCATED
OVR SEPA MAY SPREAD AN ISOLD SHOWER AND/OR SPRINKLES INTO NEPA
TONIGHT. THUS HV MAINTAINED SLGT CHC ACRS FAR SE ZONES WITH AREAS
OF FOG EXPECTED CWA-WIDE. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...

800 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE WINDING DOWN WITH JUST A FEW WEAK LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS LEFT. CLOUDY SKIES ARE DOMINATING THE REGION. THERE
IS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE FAR WESTERN BORDER OF NY.
SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS WEAK MID LVL RIDGING
IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BRING A
POCKET OF DRY AIR. FOG IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FACT THAT WE
STILL HAVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE
CWA.

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TONIGHT AS RAIN HAVE MOSTLY MOVED OUT
OF THE AREA EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. ALSO DECIDED TO TAKE OUT
THE MENTION ON THUNDER... BELIEVE THE THREAT IS OVER. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND
HAS BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURRING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPMNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE
2NDRY WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON
MRNG. IT WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY
WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER WAVE OUTPACES
SURFACE FRONT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...AND LAST
OF SCT SHRA WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS UPPER WAVE EXITS.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AND NEVER
QUITE GET THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS
UPPER WAVE EXITS...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRAPPED
UNDER SUBTLE INVERSION...WITH NO PUSH OF DRIER AIR DUE TO LACK OF
PROGRESS OF SURFACE FRONT. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING HIGH...AND AMBIENT MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL TODAY...EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF FUEL ALT REQ MVFR-TO-IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INDEED...WORSE-THAN-IFR MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY KELM WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW THERE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. WEAK FLOW MONDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLOW PACE FOR
IMPROVEMENT DUE TO LACK OF MIXING . EXPECTING CIG TO REMAIN AT
LEAST MVFR INTO LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OR
SCATTERING. WINDS LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN WSW 4-8 KTS
AFTER MID MORNING MONDAY. A FEW SHRA- TSRA MAY DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE TOWARDS KAVP...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE NOR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KAH/PVN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 010000
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE WINDING DOWN WITH JUST A FEW WEAK LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS LEFT. CLOUDY SKIES ARE DOMINATING THE REGION. THERE
IS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE FAR WESTERN BORDER OF NY.
SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS WEAK MID LVL RIDGING
IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BRING A
POCKET OF DRY AIR. FOG IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FACT THAT WE
STILL HAVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE
CWA.

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TONIGHT AS RAIN HAVE MOSTLY MOVED OUT
OF THE AREA EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. ALSO DECIDED TO TAKE OUT
THE MENTION ON THUNDER... BELIEVE THE THREAT IS OVER. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND
HAS BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE
2NDRY WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON
MRNG. IT WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY
WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER WAVE OUTPACES
SURFACE FRONT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...AND LAST
OF SCT SHRA WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS UPPER WAVE EXITS.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AND NEVER
QUITE GET THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS
UPPER WAVE EXITS...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRAPPED
UNDER SUBTLE INVERSION...WITH NO PUSH OF DRIER AIR DUE TO LACK OF
PROGRESS OF SURFACE FRONT. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING HIGH...AND AMBIENT MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL TODAY...EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF FUEL ALT REQ MVFR-TO-IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INDEED...WORSE-THAN-IFR MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY KELM WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW THERE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. WEAK FLOW MONDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLOW PACE FOR
IMPROVEMENT DUE TO LACK OF MIXING . EXPECTING CIG TO REMAIN AT
LEAST MVFR INTO LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OR
SCATTERING. WINDS LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN WSW 4-8 KTS
AFTER MIDMORNING MONDAY. A FEW SHRA- TSRA MAY DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE TOWARDS KAVP...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE NOR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM.../KAH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 010000
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE WINDING DOWN WITH JUST A FEW WEAK LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS LEFT. CLOUDY SKIES ARE DOMINATING THE REGION. THERE
IS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE FAR WESTERN BORDER OF NY.
SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS WEAK MID LVL RIDGING
IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BRING A
POCKET OF DRY AIR. FOG IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FACT THAT WE
STILL HAVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE
CWA.

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TONIGHT AS RAIN HAVE MOSTLY MOVED OUT
OF THE AREA EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. ALSO DECIDED TO TAKE OUT
THE MENTION ON THUNDER... BELIEVE THE THREAT IS OVER. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND
HAS BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE
2NDRY WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON
MRNG. IT WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY
WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER WAVE OUTPACES
SURFACE FRONT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...AND LAST
OF SCT SHRA WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS UPPER WAVE EXITS.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AND NEVER
QUITE GET THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS
UPPER WAVE EXITS...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRAPPED
UNDER SUBTLE INVERSION...WITH NO PUSH OF DRIER AIR DUE TO LACK OF
PROGRESS OF SURFACE FRONT. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING HIGH...AND AMBIENT MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL TODAY...EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF FUEL ALT REQ MVFR-TO-IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INDEED...WORSE-THAN-IFR MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY KELM WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW THERE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. WEAK FLOW MONDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLOW PACE FOR
IMPROVEMENT DUE TO LACK OF MIXING . EXPECTING CIG TO REMAIN AT
LEAST MVFR INTO LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OR
SCATTERING. WINDS LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN WSW 4-8 KTS
AFTER MIDMORNING MONDAY. A FEW SHRA- TSRA MAY DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE TOWARDS KAVP...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE NOR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM.../KAH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP









000
FXUS61 KBGM 312343
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
743 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND HAS
BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE 2NDRY
WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON MRNG. IT
WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY WENT ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER WAVE OUTPACES
SURFACE FRONT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...AND LAST
OF SCT SHRA WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS UPPER WAVE EXITS.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AND NEVER
QUITE GET THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS
UPPER WAVE EXITS...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRAPPED
UNDER SUBTLE INVERSION...WITH NO PUSH OF DRIER AIR DUE TO LACK OF
PROGRESS OF SURFACE FRONT. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING HIGH...AND AMBIENT MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL TODAY...EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF FUEL ALT REQ MVFR-TO-IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INDEED...WORSE-THAN-IFR MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY KELM WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW THERE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. WEAK FLOW MONDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLOW PACE FOR
IMPROVEMENT DUE TO LACK OF MIXING . EXPECTING CIG TO REMAIN AT
LEAST MVFR INTO LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OR
SCATTERING. WINDS LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN WSW 4-8 KTS
AFTER MIDMORNING MONDAY. A FEW SHRA- TSRA MAY DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE TOWARDS KAVP...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE NOR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 312343
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
743 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND HAS
BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE 2NDRY
WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON MRNG. IT
WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY WENT ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER WAVE OUTPACES
SURFACE FRONT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...AND LAST
OF SCT SHRA WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS UPPER WAVE EXITS.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AND NEVER
QUITE GET THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS
UPPER WAVE EXITS...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRAPPED
UNDER SUBTLE INVERSION...WITH NO PUSH OF DRIER AIR DUE TO LACK OF
PROGRESS OF SURFACE FRONT. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING HIGH...AND AMBIENT MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL TODAY...EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF FUEL ALT REQ MVFR-TO-IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INDEED...WORSE-THAN-IFR MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY KELM WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW THERE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. WEAK FLOW MONDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLOW PACE FOR
IMPROVEMENT DUE TO LACK OF MIXING . EXPECTING CIG TO REMAIN AT
LEAST MVFR INTO LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OR
SCATTERING. WINDS LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN WSW 4-8 KTS
AFTER MIDMORNING MONDAY. A FEW SHRA- TSRA MAY DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE TOWARDS KAVP...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE NOR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 311937
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
337 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND HAS
BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE 2NDRY
WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON MRNG. IT
WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY WENT ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS AREA RESIDES IN A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH. IN
GENERAL WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS INTO THE LOW MVFR RANGE. THIS EVENING, WIDESPREAD MVFR
IS EXPECTED DUE TO VSBYS THEN OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL
SATURATION AND WEAK MIXING WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. ON MONDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 15Z.

WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN
LIGHT SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 311937
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
337 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND HAS
BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE 2NDRY
WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON MRNG. IT
WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY WENT ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS AREA RESIDES IN A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH. IN
GENERAL WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS INTO THE LOW MVFR RANGE. THIS EVENING, WIDESPREAD MVFR
IS EXPECTED DUE TO VSBYS THEN OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL
SATURATION AND WEAK MIXING WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. ON MONDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 15Z.

WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN
LIGHT SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 311830
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
230 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND HAS
BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE 2NDRY
WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON MRNG. IT
WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY WENT ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS AREA RESIDES IN A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH. IN
GENERAL WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS INTO THE LOW MVFR RANGE. THIS EVENING, WIDESPREAD MVFR
IS EXPECTED DUE TO VSBYS THEN OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL
SATURATION AND WEAK MIXING WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. ON MONDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 15Z.

WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN
LIGHT SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 311830
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
230 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND HAS
BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE 2NDRY
WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON MRNG. IT
WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY WENT ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS AREA RESIDES IN A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH. IN
GENERAL WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS INTO THE LOW MVFR RANGE. THIS EVENING, WIDESPREAD MVFR
IS EXPECTED DUE TO VSBYS THEN OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL
SATURATION AND WEAK MIXING WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. ON MONDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 15Z.

WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN
LIGHT SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 311758
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS FOR THE MRNG
UPDATE. LACK OF SIG INSTABILTY DUE TO CLDS AND PCPN WILL TEMPER
CHCS FOR SVR TSRA ACRS FAR SE ZONES. MAIN FOCUS WIL BE POTNL FOR
LOCALLY +RA WTIH EMBEDDED THUNDER TDA. PREV BLO...

625 AM UPDATE...
WV HAS NOW MADE IT INTO SE OH THIS MRNG WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
MVG INTO NRN MTNS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND SHUD BE ENCROACHING INTO
SWRN SXNS OF CWA IN THE NEXT HR. HV BUMPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TO ACCNT FOR EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS BEING ACTED
ON BY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE. HV CONTINUED MENTION OF HVY RAIN THIS
MRNG AND AFTN. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

130 AM UPDATE...
GOM IS WIDE OPEN THIS MRNG WITH PW VALUES UP ARND 2.00 INCHES ACRS
NIAGARA REGION OF WNY. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY CREEP EAST AND MV INTO
CWA BY LATE MRNG, GIVE OR TAKE SVRL HRS. BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
IS MVG EAST FM ADIRONDACKS DOWN INTO NEOH WITH AN OCNL LGTNG STRIKE
OCCURRING. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH S/WV RIPPLING NEWD IN SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ASSOC WITH MAIN WV MVG THRU TN
VLY AND IS RIDING UP THRU ERN KY AT THIS TIME.

HV OPTED TO BACK OFF ON POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT SNEAKING INTO FINGER LKS UNTIL
CLOSER TO 08Z THIS MRNG PER LATEST MVMNT ON LINE.  EXPECTING SCTD
SHOWERS AND OCNL THUNDER THRU 11Z BFR WV MVS UP INTO WRN PA AND
COMBINES WITH DEEP LYR MOISTURE TO BUMP POPS TO LKLY CATEGORY. AT
THE SAME TIME UL SPEED MAX, CURRENTLY MVG UP THRU CNTRL GREAT LKS,
WL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THRU THE OVRNGT AND ALLOW FOR ADDNL LIFT.

LKLY SHOWERS CONTINUE THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND WITH MEAGER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG WITH WK LAPSE RATES VRY LITTLE THUNDER
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SEEM RIGHT FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN DVLP AND HV CONTD TO MENTION CHC HVY RAIN.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS TDA HV SIDED TWD COOLER MAV NUMBERS AS OPPOSED TO
MET GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S. ANY AREA THAT CAN SEE SUN
TDA MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK UP INTO THE L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH CHC FOR THUNDER CONTG
THRU 03Z IN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALL 00Z MODELS SHIFT 70+ KT
SPEED MAX EAST BISECTING CWA BY 06Z. IN JUICY AIRMASS, MAY SEE AN
ISOLD SHOWER BE ABLE TO EEK OUT NORTH OF THE SRN TIER BUT WL CONFINE
CHC POPS TO SRN ZONES THRU 12Z MONDAY. VRY LITTLE DRIVING FORCE FOR
LIFT TO WARRANT ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 30 POPS AFT 06Z. LATEST NAM IS
INDICATING QPF BULLSEYE OVR NEPA BTWN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY IN S/WV
RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. HIRES MODELS (ARW AND
NMM) ALSO INDICATING ENHANCED PCPN LATE TONIGHT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
CWA IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND EURO. NOT TOO CONCERNED AT THIS POINT
BUT WL PASS ALONG TO LATER SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IDEA.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WL RISE INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE AND WITH DWPTS STILL
UP IN THE U60S/NR 70 COUPLED WITH SOME SUN DRG THE DAY, CAPE VALUES
WL INCRS TO ARND 1000 J/KG. WITH VRY LITTLE TRIGGER EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WL KEEP JUST A GENERAL MENTION OF CHC
THUNDER DRG THE DAY AS DIURNAL HTG WORKS ITS MAGIC ON JUICY AIRMASS.

SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE MON NGT AND CDFNT WL APPCH FM THE WEST
BY 12Z TUE, SETTING UP ACRS THE CNTRL GREAT LKS. EXPECT POPS TO
INCRS TUE MRNG WITH LKLY THUNDER DRG THE AFTN HRS. INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO APPCH 1000 J/KG WITH MODEST SHEAR GIVING WAY TO GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN. FROPA EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFT MIDNIGHT WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS THRU 12Z WED ACRS FAR SOUTHEAST. DWPTS WL DROP
INTO THE LWR 60S IN WAKE OF FROPA WITH OVRNGT LOWS WED MRNG ALSO
DROPPING DOWN TWD 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS AREA RESIDES IN A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH. IN
GENERAL WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS INTO THE LOW MVFR RANGE. THIS EVENING, WIDESPREAD MVFR
IS EXPECTED DUE TO VSBYS THEN OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL
SATURATION AND WEAK MIXING WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. ON MONDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 15Z.

WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN
LIGHT SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 311758
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS FOR THE MRNG
UPDATE. LACK OF SIG INSTABILTY DUE TO CLDS AND PCPN WILL TEMPER
CHCS FOR SVR TSRA ACRS FAR SE ZONES. MAIN FOCUS WIL BE POTNL FOR
LOCALLY +RA WTIH EMBEDDED THUNDER TDA. PREV BLO...

625 AM UPDATE...
WV HAS NOW MADE IT INTO SE OH THIS MRNG WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
MVG INTO NRN MTNS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND SHUD BE ENCROACHING INTO
SWRN SXNS OF CWA IN THE NEXT HR. HV BUMPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TO ACCNT FOR EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS BEING ACTED
ON BY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE. HV CONTINUED MENTION OF HVY RAIN THIS
MRNG AND AFTN. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

130 AM UPDATE...
GOM IS WIDE OPEN THIS MRNG WITH PW VALUES UP ARND 2.00 INCHES ACRS
NIAGARA REGION OF WNY. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY CREEP EAST AND MV INTO
CWA BY LATE MRNG, GIVE OR TAKE SVRL HRS. BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
IS MVG EAST FM ADIRONDACKS DOWN INTO NEOH WITH AN OCNL LGTNG STRIKE
OCCURRING. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH S/WV RIPPLING NEWD IN SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ASSOC WITH MAIN WV MVG THRU TN
VLY AND IS RIDING UP THRU ERN KY AT THIS TIME.

HV OPTED TO BACK OFF ON POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT SNEAKING INTO FINGER LKS UNTIL
CLOSER TO 08Z THIS MRNG PER LATEST MVMNT ON LINE.  EXPECTING SCTD
SHOWERS AND OCNL THUNDER THRU 11Z BFR WV MVS UP INTO WRN PA AND
COMBINES WITH DEEP LYR MOISTURE TO BUMP POPS TO LKLY CATEGORY. AT
THE SAME TIME UL SPEED MAX, CURRENTLY MVG UP THRU CNTRL GREAT LKS,
WL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THRU THE OVRNGT AND ALLOW FOR ADDNL LIFT.

LKLY SHOWERS CONTINUE THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND WITH MEAGER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG WITH WK LAPSE RATES VRY LITTLE THUNDER
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SEEM RIGHT FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN DVLP AND HV CONTD TO MENTION CHC HVY RAIN.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS TDA HV SIDED TWD COOLER MAV NUMBERS AS OPPOSED TO
MET GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S. ANY AREA THAT CAN SEE SUN
TDA MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK UP INTO THE L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH CHC FOR THUNDER CONTG
THRU 03Z IN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALL 00Z MODELS SHIFT 70+ KT
SPEED MAX EAST BISECTING CWA BY 06Z. IN JUICY AIRMASS, MAY SEE AN
ISOLD SHOWER BE ABLE TO EEK OUT NORTH OF THE SRN TIER BUT WL CONFINE
CHC POPS TO SRN ZONES THRU 12Z MONDAY. VRY LITTLE DRIVING FORCE FOR
LIFT TO WARRANT ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 30 POPS AFT 06Z. LATEST NAM IS
INDICATING QPF BULLSEYE OVR NEPA BTWN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY IN S/WV
RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. HIRES MODELS (ARW AND
NMM) ALSO INDICATING ENHANCED PCPN LATE TONIGHT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
CWA IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND EURO. NOT TOO CONCERNED AT THIS POINT
BUT WL PASS ALONG TO LATER SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IDEA.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WL RISE INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE AND WITH DWPTS STILL
UP IN THE U60S/NR 70 COUPLED WITH SOME SUN DRG THE DAY, CAPE VALUES
WL INCRS TO ARND 1000 J/KG. WITH VRY LITTLE TRIGGER EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WL KEEP JUST A GENERAL MENTION OF CHC
THUNDER DRG THE DAY AS DIURNAL HTG WORKS ITS MAGIC ON JUICY AIRMASS.

SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE MON NGT AND CDFNT WL APPCH FM THE WEST
BY 12Z TUE, SETTING UP ACRS THE CNTRL GREAT LKS. EXPECT POPS TO
INCRS TUE MRNG WITH LKLY THUNDER DRG THE AFTN HRS. INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO APPCH 1000 J/KG WITH MODEST SHEAR GIVING WAY TO GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN. FROPA EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFT MIDNIGHT WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS THRU 12Z WED ACRS FAR SOUTHEAST. DWPTS WL DROP
INTO THE LWR 60S IN WAKE OF FROPA WITH OVRNGT LOWS WED MRNG ALSO
DROPPING DOWN TWD 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS AREA RESIDES IN A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH. IN
GENERAL WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS INTO THE LOW MVFR RANGE. THIS EVENING, WIDESPREAD MVFR
IS EXPECTED DUE TO VSBYS THEN OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL
SATURATION AND WEAK MIXING WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. ON MONDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 15Z.

WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN
LIGHT SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 311347
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
947 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS FOR THE MRNG
UPDATE. LACK OF SIG INSTABILTY DUE TO CLDS AND PCPN WILL TEMPER
CHCS FOR SVR TSRA ACRS FAR SE ZONES. MAIN FOCUS WIL BE POTNL FOR
LOCALLY +RA WTIH EMBEDDED THUNDER TDA. PREV BLO...

625 AM UPDATE...
WV HAS NOW MADE IT INTO SE OH THIS MRNG WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
MVG INTO NRN MTNS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND SHUD BE ENCROACHING INTO
SWRN SXNS OF CWA IN THE NEXT HR. HV BUMPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TO ACCNT FOR EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS BEING ACTED
ON BY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE. HV CONTINUED MENTION OF HVY RAIN THIS
MRNG AND AFTN. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

130 AM UPDATE...
GOM IS WIDE OPEN THIS MRNG WITH PW VALUES UP ARND 2.00 INCHES ACRS
NIAGARA REGION OF WNY. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY CREEP EAST AND MV INTO
CWA BY LATE MRNG, GIVE OR TAKE SVRL HRS. BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
IS MVG EAST FM ADIRONDACKS DOWN INTO NEOH WITH AN OCNL LGTNG STRIKE
OCCURRING. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH S/WV RIPPLING NEWD IN SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ASSOC WITH MAIN WV MVG THRU TN
VLY AND IS RIDING UP THRU ERN KY AT THIS TIME.

HV OPTED TO BACK OFF ON POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT SNEAKING INTO FINGER LKS UNTIL
CLOSER TO 08Z THIS MRNG PER LATEST MVMNT ON LINE.  EXPECTING SCTD
SHOWERS AND OCNL THUNDER THRU 11Z BFR WV MVS UP INTO WRN PA AND
COMBINES WITH DEEP LYR MOISTURE TO BUMP POPS TO LKLY CATEGORY. AT
THE SAME TIME UL SPEED MAX, CURRENTLY MVG UP THRU CNTRL GREAT LKS,
WL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THRU THE OVRNGT AND ALLOW FOR ADDNL LIFT.

LKLY SHOWERS CONTINUE THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND WITH MEAGER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG WITH WK LAPSE RATES VRY LITTLE THUNDER
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SEEM RIGHT FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN DVLP AND HV CONTD TO MENTION CHC HVY RAIN.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS TDA HV SIDED TWD COOLER MAV NUMBERS AS OPPOSED TO
MET GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S. ANY AREA THAT CAN SEE SUN
TDA MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK UP INTO THE L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH CHC FOR THUNDER CONTG
THRU 03Z IN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALL 00Z MODELS SHIFT 70+ KT
SPEED MAX EAST BISECTING CWA BY 06Z. IN JUICY AIRMASS, MAY SEE AN
ISOLD SHOWER BE ABLE TO EEK OUT NORTH OF THE SRN TIER BUT WL CONFINE
CHC POPS TO SRN ZONES THRU 12Z MONDAY. VRY LITTLE DRIVING FORCE FOR
LIFT TO WARRANT ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 30 POPS AFT 06Z. LATEST NAM IS
INDICATING QPF BULLSEYE OVR NEPA BTWN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY IN S/WV
RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. HIRES MODELS (ARW AND
NMM) ALSO INDICATING ENHANCED PCPN LATE TONIGHT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
CWA IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND EURO. NOT TOO CONCERNED AT THIS POINT
BUT WL PASS ALONG TO LATER SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IDEA.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WL RISE INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE AND WITH DWPTS STILL
UP IN THE U60S/NR 70 COUPLED WITH SOME SUN DRG THE DAY, CAPE VALUES
WL INCRS TO ARND 1000 J/KG. WITH VRY LITTLE TRIGGER EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WL KEEP JUST A GENERAL MENTION OF CHC
THUNDER DRG THE DAY AS DIURNAL HTG WORKS ITS MAGIC ON JUICY AIRMASS.

SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE MON NGT AND CDFNT WL APPCH FM THE WEST
BY 12Z TUE, SETTING UP ACRS THE CNTRL GREAT LKS. EXPECT POPS TO
INCRS TUE MRNG WITH LKLY THUNDER DRG THE AFTN HRS. INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO APPCH 1000 J/KG WITH MODEST SHEAR GIVING WAY TO GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN. FROPA EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFT MIDNIGHT WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS THRU 12Z WED ACRS FAR SOUTHEAST. DWPTS WL DROP
INTO THE LWR 60S IN WAKE OF FROPA WITH OVRNGT LOWS WED MRNG ALSO
DROPPING DOWN TWD 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH IFR CIGS AT KBGM. WHILE BRIEF IFR CIGS
CAN`T BE RULED OUT RIGHT THROUGH 15Z, SURFACE OBS TO THE WEST OF
THE TERMINAL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW END MVFR. WILL CONTINUE
THE COURSE WITH THE 12Z UPDATE. IN ADDITION KAVP HAS VERY LOW CIGS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, BUT THIS TERMINAL SHOULD ALSO REMAIN LOW
END MVFR THROUGH 15Z.

ELSEWHERE, LIGHT RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NY TERMINALS BY 13Z. HERE MVFR VSBYS
ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
HERE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z ESPECIALLY FROM KITH SOUTH AND
EAST. TIMING OF PRECIP WILL BE LATER AT KAVP (16Z) BUT THIS
TERMINAL STANDS THE BEST SHOT AT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION VFR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, THEN MVFR POSSIBLE
AFTER 09Z.


OUTLOOK...


MON-TUE...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA-TSRA MAINLY
AFTN-EVNG...ESPECIALLY TUE.

WED-THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 311347
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
947 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS FOR THE MRNG
UPDATE. LACK OF SIG INSTABILTY DUE TO CLDS AND PCPN WILL TEMPER
CHCS FOR SVR TSRA ACRS FAR SE ZONES. MAIN FOCUS WIL BE POTNL FOR
LOCALLY +RA WTIH EMBEDDED THUNDER TDA. PREV BLO...

625 AM UPDATE...
WV HAS NOW MADE IT INTO SE OH THIS MRNG WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
MVG INTO NRN MTNS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND SHUD BE ENCROACHING INTO
SWRN SXNS OF CWA IN THE NEXT HR. HV BUMPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TO ACCNT FOR EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS BEING ACTED
ON BY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE. HV CONTINUED MENTION OF HVY RAIN THIS
MRNG AND AFTN. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

130 AM UPDATE...
GOM IS WIDE OPEN THIS MRNG WITH PW VALUES UP ARND 2.00 INCHES ACRS
NIAGARA REGION OF WNY. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY CREEP EAST AND MV INTO
CWA BY LATE MRNG, GIVE OR TAKE SVRL HRS. BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
IS MVG EAST FM ADIRONDACKS DOWN INTO NEOH WITH AN OCNL LGTNG STRIKE
OCCURRING. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH S/WV RIPPLING NEWD IN SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ASSOC WITH MAIN WV MVG THRU TN
VLY AND IS RIDING UP THRU ERN KY AT THIS TIME.

HV OPTED TO BACK OFF ON POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT SNEAKING INTO FINGER LKS UNTIL
CLOSER TO 08Z THIS MRNG PER LATEST MVMNT ON LINE.  EXPECTING SCTD
SHOWERS AND OCNL THUNDER THRU 11Z BFR WV MVS UP INTO WRN PA AND
COMBINES WITH DEEP LYR MOISTURE TO BUMP POPS TO LKLY CATEGORY. AT
THE SAME TIME UL SPEED MAX, CURRENTLY MVG UP THRU CNTRL GREAT LKS,
WL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THRU THE OVRNGT AND ALLOW FOR ADDNL LIFT.

LKLY SHOWERS CONTINUE THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND WITH MEAGER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG WITH WK LAPSE RATES VRY LITTLE THUNDER
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SEEM RIGHT FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN DVLP AND HV CONTD TO MENTION CHC HVY RAIN.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS TDA HV SIDED TWD COOLER MAV NUMBERS AS OPPOSED TO
MET GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S. ANY AREA THAT CAN SEE SUN
TDA MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK UP INTO THE L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH CHC FOR THUNDER CONTG
THRU 03Z IN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALL 00Z MODELS SHIFT 70+ KT
SPEED MAX EAST BISECTING CWA BY 06Z. IN JUICY AIRMASS, MAY SEE AN
ISOLD SHOWER BE ABLE TO EEK OUT NORTH OF THE SRN TIER BUT WL CONFINE
CHC POPS TO SRN ZONES THRU 12Z MONDAY. VRY LITTLE DRIVING FORCE FOR
LIFT TO WARRANT ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 30 POPS AFT 06Z. LATEST NAM IS
INDICATING QPF BULLSEYE OVR NEPA BTWN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY IN S/WV
RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. HIRES MODELS (ARW AND
NMM) ALSO INDICATING ENHANCED PCPN LATE TONIGHT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
CWA IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND EURO. NOT TOO CONCERNED AT THIS POINT
BUT WL PASS ALONG TO LATER SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IDEA.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WL RISE INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE AND WITH DWPTS STILL
UP IN THE U60S/NR 70 COUPLED WITH SOME SUN DRG THE DAY, CAPE VALUES
WL INCRS TO ARND 1000 J/KG. WITH VRY LITTLE TRIGGER EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WL KEEP JUST A GENERAL MENTION OF CHC
THUNDER DRG THE DAY AS DIURNAL HTG WORKS ITS MAGIC ON JUICY AIRMASS.

SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE MON NGT AND CDFNT WL APPCH FM THE WEST
BY 12Z TUE, SETTING UP ACRS THE CNTRL GREAT LKS. EXPECT POPS TO
INCRS TUE MRNG WITH LKLY THUNDER DRG THE AFTN HRS. INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO APPCH 1000 J/KG WITH MODEST SHEAR GIVING WAY TO GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN. FROPA EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFT MIDNIGHT WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS THRU 12Z WED ACRS FAR SOUTHEAST. DWPTS WL DROP
INTO THE LWR 60S IN WAKE OF FROPA WITH OVRNGT LOWS WED MRNG ALSO
DROPPING DOWN TWD 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH IFR CIGS AT KBGM. WHILE BRIEF IFR CIGS
CAN`T BE RULED OUT RIGHT THROUGH 15Z, SURFACE OBS TO THE WEST OF
THE TERMINAL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW END MVFR. WILL CONTINUE
THE COURSE WITH THE 12Z UPDATE. IN ADDITION KAVP HAS VERY LOW CIGS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, BUT THIS TERMINAL SHOULD ALSO REMAIN LOW
END MVFR THROUGH 15Z.

ELSEWHERE, LIGHT RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NY TERMINALS BY 13Z. HERE MVFR VSBYS
ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
HERE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z ESPECIALLY FROM KITH SOUTH AND
EAST. TIMING OF PRECIP WILL BE LATER AT KAVP (16Z) BUT THIS
TERMINAL STANDS THE BEST SHOT AT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION VFR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, THEN MVFR POSSIBLE
AFTER 09Z.


OUTLOOK...


MON-TUE...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA-TSRA MAINLY
AFTN-EVNG...ESPECIALLY TUE.

WED-THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 311044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
625 AM UPDATE...
WV HAS NOW MADE IT INTO SEOH THIS MRNG WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
MVG INTO NRN MTNS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND SHUD BE ENCROACHING INTO
SWRN SXNS OF CWA IN THE NEXT HR. HV BUMPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TO ACCNT FOR EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS BEING ACTED
ON BY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE. HV CONTINUED MENTION OF HVY RAIN THIS
MRNG AND AFTN. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

130 AM UPDATE...
GOM IS WIDE OPEN THIS MRNG WITH PW VALUES UP ARND 2.00 INCHES ACRS
NIAGARA REGION OF WNY. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY CREEP EAST AND MV INTO
CWA BY LATE MRNG, GIVE OR TAKE SVRL HRS. BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
IS MVG EAST FM ADIRONDACKS DOWN INTO NEOH WITH AN OCNL LGTNG STRIKE
OCCURRING. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH S/WV RIPPLING NEWD IN SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ASSOC WITH MAIN WV MVG THRU TN
VLY AND IS RIDING UP THRU ERN KY AT THIS TIME.

HV OPTED TO BACK OFF ON POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT SNEAKING INTO FINGER LKS UNTIL
CLOSER TO 08Z THIS MRNG PER LATEST MVMNT ON LINE.  EXPECTING SCTD
SHOWERS AND OCNL THUNDER THRU 11Z BFR WV MVS UP INTO WRN PA AND
COMBINES WITH DEEP LYR MOISTURE TO BUMP POPS TO LKLY CATEGORY. AT
THE SAME TIME UL SPEED MAX, CURRENTLY MVG UP THRU CNTRL GREAT LKS,
WL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THRU THE OVRNGT AND ALLOW FOR ADDNL LIFT.

LKLY SHOWERS CONTINUE THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND WITH MEAGER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG WITH WK LAPSE RATES VRY LITTLE THUNDER
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SEEM RIGHT FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN DVLP AND HV CONTD TO MENTION CHC HVY RAIN.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS TDA HV SIDED TWD COOLER MAV NUMBERS AS OPPOSED TO
MET GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S. ANY AREA THAT CAN SEE SUN
TDA MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK UP INTO THE L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH CHC FOR THUNDER CONTG
THRU 03Z IN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALL 00Z MODELS SHIFT 70+ KT
SPEED MAX EAST BISECTING CWA BY 06Z. IN JUICY AIRMASS, MAY SEE AN
ISOLD SHOWER BE ABLE TO EEK OUT NORTH OF THE SRN TIER BUT WL CONFINE
CHC POPS TO SRN ZONES THRU 12Z MONDAY. VRY LITTLE DRIVING FORCE FOR
LIFT TO WARRANT ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 30 POPS AFT 06Z. LATEST NAM IS
INDICATING QPF BULLSEYE OVR NEPA BTWN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY IN S/WV
RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. HIRES MODELS (ARW AND
NMM) ALSO INDICATING ENHANCED PCPN LATE TONIGHT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
CWA IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND EURO. NOT TOO CONCERNED AT THIS POINT
BUT WL PASS ALONG TO LATER SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IDEA.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WL RISE INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE AND WITH DWPTS STILL
UP IN THE U60S/NR 70 COUPLED WITH SOME SUN DRG THE DAY, CAPE VALUES
WL INCRS TO ARND 1000 J/KG. WITH VRY LITTLE TRIGGER EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WL KEEP JUST A GENERAL MENTION OF CHC
THUNDER DRG THE DAY AS DIURNAL HTG WORKS ITS MAGIC ON JUICY AIRMASS.

SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE MON NGT AND CDFNT WL APPCH FM THE WEST
BY 12Z TUE, SETTING UP ACRS THE CNTRL GREAT LKS. EXPECT POPS TO
INCRS TUE MRNG WITH LKLY THUNDER DRG THE AFTN HRS. INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO APPCH 1000 J/KG WITH MODEST SHEAR GIVING WAY TO GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN. FROPA EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFT MIDNIGHT WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS THRU 12Z WED ACRS FAR SOUTHEAST. DWPTS WL DROP
INTO THE LWR 60S IN WAKE OF FROPA WITH OVRNGT LOWS WED MRNG ALSO
DROPPING DOWN TWD 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH IFR CIGS AT KBGM. WHILE BRIEF IFR CIGS
CAN`T BE RULED OUT RIGHT THROUGH 15Z, SURFACE OBS TO THE WEST OF
THE TERMINAL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW END MVFR. WILL CONTINUE
THE COURSE WITH THE 12Z UPDATE. IN ADDITION KAVP HAS VERY LOW CIGS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, BUT THIS TERMINAL SHOULD ALSO REMAIN LOW
END MVFR THROUGH 15Z.

ELSEWHERE, LIGHT RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NY TERMINALS BY 13Z. HERE MVFR VSBYS
ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
HERE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z ESPECIALLY FROM KITH SOUTH AND
EAST. TIMING OF PRECIP WILL BE LATER AT KAVP (16Z) BUT THIS
TERMINAL STANDS THE BEST SHOT AT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION VFR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, THEN MVFR POSSIBLE
AFTER 09Z.


OUTLOOK...


MON-TUE...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA-TSRA MAINLY
AFTN-EVNG...ESPECIALLY TUE.

WED-THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 311044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
625 AM UPDATE...
WV HAS NOW MADE IT INTO SEOH THIS MRNG WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
MVG INTO NRN MTNS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND SHUD BE ENCROACHING INTO
SWRN SXNS OF CWA IN THE NEXT HR. HV BUMPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TO ACCNT FOR EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS BEING ACTED
ON BY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE. HV CONTINUED MENTION OF HVY RAIN THIS
MRNG AND AFTN. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

130 AM UPDATE...
GOM IS WIDE OPEN THIS MRNG WITH PW VALUES UP ARND 2.00 INCHES ACRS
NIAGARA REGION OF WNY. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY CREEP EAST AND MV INTO
CWA BY LATE MRNG, GIVE OR TAKE SVRL HRS. BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
IS MVG EAST FM ADIRONDACKS DOWN INTO NEOH WITH AN OCNL LGTNG STRIKE
OCCURRING. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH S/WV RIPPLING NEWD IN SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ASSOC WITH MAIN WV MVG THRU TN
VLY AND IS RIDING UP THRU ERN KY AT THIS TIME.

HV OPTED TO BACK OFF ON POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT SNEAKING INTO FINGER LKS UNTIL
CLOSER TO 08Z THIS MRNG PER LATEST MVMNT ON LINE.  EXPECTING SCTD
SHOWERS AND OCNL THUNDER THRU 11Z BFR WV MVS UP INTO WRN PA AND
COMBINES WITH DEEP LYR MOISTURE TO BUMP POPS TO LKLY CATEGORY. AT
THE SAME TIME UL SPEED MAX, CURRENTLY MVG UP THRU CNTRL GREAT LKS,
WL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THRU THE OVRNGT AND ALLOW FOR ADDNL LIFT.

LKLY SHOWERS CONTINUE THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND WITH MEAGER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG WITH WK LAPSE RATES VRY LITTLE THUNDER
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SEEM RIGHT FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN DVLP AND HV CONTD TO MENTION CHC HVY RAIN.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS TDA HV SIDED TWD COOLER MAV NUMBERS AS OPPOSED TO
MET GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S. ANY AREA THAT CAN SEE SUN
TDA MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK UP INTO THE L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH CHC FOR THUNDER CONTG
THRU 03Z IN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALL 00Z MODELS SHIFT 70+ KT
SPEED MAX EAST BISECTING CWA BY 06Z. IN JUICY AIRMASS, MAY SEE AN
ISOLD SHOWER BE ABLE TO EEK OUT NORTH OF THE SRN TIER BUT WL CONFINE
CHC POPS TO SRN ZONES THRU 12Z MONDAY. VRY LITTLE DRIVING FORCE FOR
LIFT TO WARRANT ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 30 POPS AFT 06Z. LATEST NAM IS
INDICATING QPF BULLSEYE OVR NEPA BTWN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY IN S/WV
RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. HIRES MODELS (ARW AND
NMM) ALSO INDICATING ENHANCED PCPN LATE TONIGHT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
CWA IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND EURO. NOT TOO CONCERNED AT THIS POINT
BUT WL PASS ALONG TO LATER SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IDEA.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WL RISE INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE AND WITH DWPTS STILL
UP IN THE U60S/NR 70 COUPLED WITH SOME SUN DRG THE DAY, CAPE VALUES
WL INCRS TO ARND 1000 J/KG. WITH VRY LITTLE TRIGGER EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WL KEEP JUST A GENERAL MENTION OF CHC
THUNDER DRG THE DAY AS DIURNAL HTG WORKS ITS MAGIC ON JUICY AIRMASS.

SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE MON NGT AND CDFNT WL APPCH FM THE WEST
BY 12Z TUE, SETTING UP ACRS THE CNTRL GREAT LKS. EXPECT POPS TO
INCRS TUE MRNG WITH LKLY THUNDER DRG THE AFTN HRS. INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO APPCH 1000 J/KG WITH MODEST SHEAR GIVING WAY TO GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN. FROPA EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFT MIDNIGHT WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS THRU 12Z WED ACRS FAR SOUTHEAST. DWPTS WL DROP
INTO THE LWR 60S IN WAKE OF FROPA WITH OVRNGT LOWS WED MRNG ALSO
DROPPING DOWN TWD 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH IFR CIGS AT KBGM. WHILE BRIEF IFR CIGS
CAN`T BE RULED OUT RIGHT THROUGH 15Z, SURFACE OBS TO THE WEST OF
THE TERMINAL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW END MVFR. WILL CONTINUE
THE COURSE WITH THE 12Z UPDATE. IN ADDITION KAVP HAS VERY LOW CIGS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, BUT THIS TERMINAL SHOULD ALSO REMAIN LOW
END MVFR THROUGH 15Z.

ELSEWHERE, LIGHT RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NY TERMINALS BY 13Z. HERE MVFR VSBYS
ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
HERE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z ESPECIALLY FROM KITH SOUTH AND
EAST. TIMING OF PRECIP WILL BE LATER AT KAVP (16Z) BUT THIS
TERMINAL STANDS THE BEST SHOT AT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION VFR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, THEN MVFR POSSIBLE
AFTER 09Z.


OUTLOOK...


MON-TUE...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA-TSRA MAINLY
AFTN-EVNG...ESPECIALLY TUE.

WED-THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 311024
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
624 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
625 AM UPDATE...
WV HAS NOW MADE IT INTO SEOH THIS MRNG WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
MVG INTO NRN MTNS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND SHUD BE ENCROACHING INTO
SWRN SXNS OF CWA IN THE NEXT HR. HV BUMPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TO ACCNT FOR EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS BEING ACTED
ON BY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE. HV CONTINUED MENTION OF HVY RAIN THIS
MRNG AND AFTN. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

130 AM UPDATE...
GOM IS WIDE OPEN THIS MRNG WITH PW VALUES UP ARND 2.00 INCHES ACRS
NIAGARA REGION OF WNY. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY CREEP EAST AND MV INTO
CWA BY LATE MRNG, GIVE OR TAKE SVRL HRS. BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
IS MVG EAST FM ADIRONDACKS DOWN INTO NEOH WITH AN OCNL LGTNG STRIKE
OCCURRING. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH S/WV RIPPLING NEWD IN SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ASSOC WITH MAIN WV MVG THRU TN
VLY AND IS RIDING UP THRU ERN KY AT THIS TIME.

HV OPTED TO BACK OFF ON POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT SNEAKING INTO FINGER LKS UNTIL
CLOSER TO 08Z THIS MRNG PER LATEST MVMNT ON LINE.  EXPECTING SCTD
SHOWERS AND OCNL THUNDER THRU 11Z BFR WV MVS UP INTO WRN PA AND
COMBINES WITH DEEP LYR MOISTURE TO BUMP POPS TO LKLY CATEGORY. AT
THE SAME TIME UL SPEED MAX, CURRENTLY MVG UP THRU CNTRL GREAT LKS,
WL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THRU THE OVRNGT AND ALLOW FOR ADDNL LIFT.

LKLY SHOWERS CONTINUE THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND WITH MEAGER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG WITH WK LAPSE RATES VRY LITTLE THUNDER
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SEEM RIGHT FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN DVLP AND HV CONTD TO MENTION CHC HVY RAIN.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS TDA HV SIDED TWD COOLER MAV NUMBERS AS OPPOSED TO
MET GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S. ANY AREA THAT CAN SEE SUN
TDA MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK UP INTO THE L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH CHC FOR THUNDER CONTG
THRU 03Z IN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALL 00Z MODELS SHIFT 70+ KT
SPEED MAX EAST BISECTING CWA BY 06Z. IN JUICY AIRMASS, MAY SEE AN
ISOLD SHOWER BE ABLE TO EEK OUT NORTH OF THE SRN TIER BUT WL CONFINE
CHC POPS TO SRN ZONES THRU 12Z MONDAY. VRY LITTLE DRIVING FORCE FOR
LIFT TO WARRANT ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 30 POPS AFT 06Z. LATEST NAM IS
INDICATING QPF BULLSEYE OVR NEPA BTWN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY IN S/WV
RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. HIRES MODELS (ARW AND
NMM) ALSO INDICATING ENHANCED PCPN LATE TONIGHT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
CWA IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND EURO. NOT TOO CONCERNED AT THIS POINT
BUT WL PASS ALONG TO LATER SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IDEA.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WL RISE INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE AND WITH DWPTS STILL
UP IN THE U60S/NR 70 COUPLED WITH SOME SUN DRG THE DAY, CAPE VALUES
WL INCRS TO ARND 1000 J/KG. WITH VRY LITTLE TRIGGER EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WL KEEP JUST A GENERAL MENTION OF CHC
THUNDER DRG THE DAY AS DIURNAL HTG WORKS ITS MAGIC ON JUICY AIRMASS.

SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE MON NGT AND CDFNT WL APPCH FM THE WEST
BY 12Z TUE, SETTING UP ACRS THE CNTRL GREAT LKS. EXPECT POPS TO
INCRS TUE MRNG WITH LKLY THUNDER DRG THE AFTN HRS. INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO APPCH 1000 J/KG WITH MODEST SHEAR GIVING WAY TO GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN. FROPA EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFT MIDNIGHT WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS THRU 12Z WED ACRS FAR SOUTHEAST. DWPTS WL DROP
INTO THE LWR 60S IN WAKE OF FROPA WITH OVRNGT LOWS WED MRNG ALSO
DROPPING DOWN TWD 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS WITH MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS NOW, AND ALL GUIDANCE POINTING TO AN IFR NIGHT. WILL BE
STICKING WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE
GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NY ARE
A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WHILE IFR CAN`T BE RULED
OUT (ESPECIALLY AT KBGM OR KAVP, THE SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE DECK ABOVE IFR.  40 KT SSW LOW LEVEL
JET AROUND 2 KFT AGL WILL PRECEDE AN EMBEDDED WAVE FOR MARGINAL
LLWS CONDITIONS KSYR- KRME FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY
BELOW LLWS THRESHOLD AT OTHER TERMINALS.

WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME NY
TERMINALS, BEST SHOT AT THUNDER LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z NY
TERMINALS, AND 16Z-20Z AT KAVP. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING
THIS TIME, BUT IN THE HEAVIEST OF SHOWERS MAY DROP BRIEFLY BACK TO
MVFR.



OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...POST-FRONTAL MVFR/PATCHY IFR CIGS.

MON-TUE...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA-TSRA MAINLY
AFTN-EVNG...ESPECIALLY TUE.

WED-THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 310735
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
335 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
GOM IS WIDE OPEN THIS MRNG WITH PW VALUES UP ARND 2.00 INCHES ACRS
NIAGARA REGION OF WNY. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY CREEP EAST AND MV INTO
CWA BY LATE MRNG, GIVE OR TAKE SVRL HRS. BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
IS MVG EAST FM ADIRONDACKS DOWN INTO NEOH WITH AN OCNL LGTNG STRIKE
OCCURRING. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH S/WV RIPPLING NEWD IN SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ASSOC WITH MAIN WV MVG THRU TN
VLY AND IS RIDING UP THRU ERN KY AT THIS TIME.

HV OPTED TO BACK OFF ON POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT SNEAKING INTO FINGER LKS UNTIL
CLOSER TO 08Z THIS MRNG PER LATEST MVMNT ON LINE.  EXPECTING SCTD
SHOWERS AND OCNL THUNDER THRU 11Z BFR WV MVS UP INTO WRN PA AND
COMBINES WITH DEEP LYR MOISTURE TO BUMP POPS TO LKLY CATEGORY. AT
THE SAME TIME UL SPEED MAX, CURRENTLY MVG UP THRU CNTRL GREAT LKS,
WL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THRU THE OVRNGT AND ALLOW FOR ADDNL LIFT.

LKLY SHOWERS CONTINUE THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND WITH MEAGER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG WITH WK LAPSE RATES VRY LITTLE THUNDER
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SEEM RIGHT FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN DVLP AND HV CONTD TO MENTION CHC HVY RAIN.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS TDA HV SIDED TWD COOLER MAV NUMBERS AS OPPOSED TO
MET GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S. ANY AREA THAT CAN SEE SUN
TDA MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK UP INTO THE L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH CHC FOR THUNDER CONTG
THRU 03Z IN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALL 00Z MODELS SHIFT 70+ KT
SPEED MAX EAST BISECTING CWA BY 06Z. IN JUICY AIRMASS, MAY SEE AN
ISOLD SHOWER BE ABLE TO EEK OUT NORTH OF THE SRN TIER BUT WL CONFINE
CHC POPS TO SRN ZONES THRU 12Z MONDAY. VRY LITTLE DRIVING FORCE FOR
LIFT TO WARRANT ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 30 POPS AFT 06Z. LATEST NAM IS
INDICATING QPF BULLSEYE OVR NEPA BTWN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY IN S/WV
RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. HIRES MODELS (ARW AND
NMM) ALSO INDICATING ENHANCED PCPN LATE TONIGHT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
CWA IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND EURO. NOT TOO CONCERNED AT THIS POINT
BUT WL PASS ALONG TO LATER SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IDEA.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WL RISE INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE AND WITH DWPTS STILL
UP IN THE U60S/NR 70 COUPLED WITH SOME SUN DRG THE DAY, CAPE VALUES
WL INCRS TO ARND 1000 J/KG. WITH VRY LITTLE TRIGGER EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WL KEEP JUST A GENERAL MENTION OF CHC
THUNDER DRG THE DAY AS DIURNAL HTG WORKS ITS MAGIC ON JUICY AIRMASS.

SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE MON NGT AND CDFNT WL APPCH FM THE WEST
BY 12Z TUE, SETTING UP ACRS THE CNTRL GREAT LKS. EXPECT POPS TO
INCRS TUE MRNG WITH LKLY THUNDER DRG THE AFTN HRS. INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO APPCH 1000 J/KG WITH MODEST SHEAR GIVING WAY TO GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN. FROPA EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFT MIDNIGHT WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS THRU 12Z WED ACRS FAR SOUTHEAST. DWPTS WL DROP
INTO THE LWR 60S IN WAKE OF FROPA WITH OVRNGT LOWS WED MRNG ALSO
DROPPING DOWN TWD 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS WITH MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS NOW, AND ALL GUIDANCE POINTING TO AN IFR NIGHT. WILL BE
STICKING WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE
GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NY ARE
A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WHILE IFR CAN`T BE RULED
OUT (ESPECIALLY AT KBGM OR KAVP, THE SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE DECK ABOVE IFR.  40 KT SSW LOW LEVEL
JET AROUND 2 KFT AGL WILL PRECEDE AN EMBEDDED WAVE FOR MARGINAL
LLWS CONDITIONS KSYR- KRME FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY
BELOW LLWS THRESHOLD AT OTHER TERMINALS.

WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME NY
TERMINALS, BEST SHOT AT THUNDER LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z NY
TERMINALS, AND 16Z-20Z AT KAVP. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING
THIS TIME, BUT IN THE HEAVIEST OF SHOWERS MAY DROP BRIEFLY BACK TO
MVFR.



OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...POST-FRONTAL MVFR/PATCHY IFR CIGS.

MON-TUE...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA-TSRA MAINLY
AFTN-EVNG...ESPECIALLY TUE.

WED-THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 310558
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
GOM IS WIDE OPEN THIS MRNG WITH PW VALUES UP ARND 2.00 INCHES ACRS
NIAGARA REGION OF WNY. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY CREEP EAST AND MV INTO
CWA BY LATE MRNG, GIVE OR TAKE SVRL HRS. BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
IS MVG EAST FM ADIRONDACKS DOWN INTO NEOH WITH AN OCNL LGTNG STRIKE
OCCURRING. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH S/WV RIPPLING NEWD IN SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ASSOC WITH MAIN WV MVG THRU TN
VLY AND IS RIDING UP THRU ERN KY AT THIS TIME.

HV OPTED TO BACK OFF ON POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT SNEAKING INTO FINGER LKS UNTIL
CLOSER TO 08Z THIS MRNG PER LATEST MVMNT ON LINE.  EXPECTING SCTD
SHOWERS AND OCNL THUNDER THRU 11Z BFR WV MVS UP INTO WRN PA AND
COMBINES WITH DEEP LYR MOISTURE TO BUMP POPS TO LKLY CATEGORY. AT
THE SAME TIME UL SPEED MAX, CURRENTLY MVG UP THRU CNTRL GREAT LKS,
WL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THRU THE OVRNGT AND ALLOW FOR ADDNL LIFT.

LKLY SHOWERS CONTINUE THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND WITH MEAGER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG WITH WK LAPSE RATES VRY LITTLE THUNDER
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SEEM RIGHT FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN DVLP AND HV CONTD TO MENTION CHC HVY RAIN.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS TDA HV SIDED TWD COOLER MAV NUMBERS AS OPPOSED TO
MET GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S. ANY AREA THAT CAN SEE SUN
TDA MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK UP INTO THE L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...LEADING SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SINCE
IT BEGINS FAIRLY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION IS UNLIKELY. IF ANY AREA RECEIVES HEATING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS IT WOULD BE THE FAR SE BUT EVEN HERE A MARINE
LAYER MAY BE IN PLACE. IF ENOUGH CAPE IS REALIZED SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AS MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS ARE
RATHER STRONG. WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR TRAINING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO
BOTH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS AND CHC FOR TRW WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO INCLUDED IN GRIDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING
PERIOD ACROSS THE FAR SE FA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. OTHERWISE REST OF AREA WILL BE
MAINLY DRY BY EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BUT
CONTINUED MILD IN HUMID AIRMASS.

MONDAY...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL MAKE FOR A PARTLY
SUNNY DAY AND HUMID CONDITIONS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S.
THERE IS NO TRIGGER BUT DUE TO MOIST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHC POPS.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN NE PA. MAXES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS WITH MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS NOW, AND ALL GUIDANCE POINTING TO AN IFR NIGHT. WILL BE
STICKING WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE
GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NY ARE
A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WHILE IFR CAN`T BE RULED
OUT (ESPECIALLY AT KBGM OR KAVP, THE SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE DECK ABOVE IFR.  40 KT SSW LOW LEVEL
JET AROUND 2 KFT AGL WILL PRECEDE AN EMBEDDED WAVE FOR MARGINAL
LLWS CONDITIONS KSYR- KRME FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY
BELOW LLWS THRESHOLD AT OTHER TERMINALS.

WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME NY
TERMINALS, BEST SHOT AT THUNDER LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z NY
TERMINALS, AND 16Z-20Z AT KAVP. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING
THIS TIME, BUT IN THE HEAVIEST OF SHOWERS MAY DROP BRIEFLY BACK TO
MVFR.



OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...POST-FRONTAL MVFR/PATCHY IFR CIGS.

MON-TUE...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA-TSRA MAINLY
AFTN-EVNG...ESPECIALLY TUE.

WED-THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 310558
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
GOM IS WIDE OPEN THIS MRNG WITH PW VALUES UP ARND 2.00 INCHES ACRS
NIAGARA REGION OF WNY. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY CREEP EAST AND MV INTO
CWA BY LATE MRNG, GIVE OR TAKE SVRL HRS. BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
IS MVG EAST FM ADIRONDACKS DOWN INTO NEOH WITH AN OCNL LGTNG STRIKE
OCCURRING. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH S/WV RIPPLING NEWD IN SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ASSOC WITH MAIN WV MVG THRU TN
VLY AND IS RIDING UP THRU ERN KY AT THIS TIME.

HV OPTED TO BACK OFF ON POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT SNEAKING INTO FINGER LKS UNTIL
CLOSER TO 08Z THIS MRNG PER LATEST MVMNT ON LINE.  EXPECTING SCTD
SHOWERS AND OCNL THUNDER THRU 11Z BFR WV MVS UP INTO WRN PA AND
COMBINES WITH DEEP LYR MOISTURE TO BUMP POPS TO LKLY CATEGORY. AT
THE SAME TIME UL SPEED MAX, CURRENTLY MVG UP THRU CNTRL GREAT LKS,
WL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THRU THE OVRNGT AND ALLOW FOR ADDNL LIFT.

LKLY SHOWERS CONTINUE THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND WITH MEAGER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG WITH WK LAPSE RATES VRY LITTLE THUNDER
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SEEM RIGHT FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN DVLP AND HV CONTD TO MENTION CHC HVY RAIN.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS TDA HV SIDED TWD COOLER MAV NUMBERS AS OPPOSED TO
MET GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S. ANY AREA THAT CAN SEE SUN
TDA MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK UP INTO THE L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...LEADING SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SINCE
IT BEGINS FAIRLY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION IS UNLIKELY. IF ANY AREA RECEIVES HEATING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS IT WOULD BE THE FAR SE BUT EVEN HERE A MARINE
LAYER MAY BE IN PLACE. IF ENOUGH CAPE IS REALIZED SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AS MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS ARE
RATHER STRONG. WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR TRAINING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO
BOTH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS AND CHC FOR TRW WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO INCLUDED IN GRIDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING
PERIOD ACROSS THE FAR SE FA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. OTHERWISE REST OF AREA WILL BE
MAINLY DRY BY EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BUT
CONTINUED MILD IN HUMID AIRMASS.

MONDAY...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL MAKE FOR A PARTLY
SUNNY DAY AND HUMID CONDITIONS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S.
THERE IS NO TRIGGER BUT DUE TO MOIST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHC POPS.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN NE PA. MAXES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS WITH MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS NOW, AND ALL GUIDANCE POINTING TO AN IFR NIGHT. WILL BE
STICKING WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE
GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NY ARE
A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WHILE IFR CAN`T BE RULED
OUT (ESPECIALLY AT KBGM OR KAVP, THE SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE DECK ABOVE IFR.  40 KT SSW LOW LEVEL
JET AROUND 2 KFT AGL WILL PRECEDE AN EMBEDDED WAVE FOR MARGINAL
LLWS CONDITIONS KSYR- KRME FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY
BELOW LLWS THRESHOLD AT OTHER TERMINALS.

WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME NY
TERMINALS, BEST SHOT AT THUNDER LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z NY
TERMINALS, AND 16Z-20Z AT KAVP. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING
THIS TIME, BUT IN THE HEAVIEST OF SHOWERS MAY DROP BRIEFLY BACK TO
MVFR.



OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...POST-FRONTAL MVFR/PATCHY IFR CIGS.

MON-TUE...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA-TSRA MAINLY
AFTN-EVNG...ESPECIALLY TUE.

WED-THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 310530
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
130 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
GOM IS WIDE OPEN THIS MRNG WITH PW VALUES UP ARND 2.00 INCHES ACRS
NIAGARA REGION OF WNY. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY CREEP EAST AND MV INTO
CWA BY LATE MRNG, GIVE OR TAKE SVRL HRS. BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
IS MVG EAST FM ADIRONDACKS DOWN INTO NEOH WITH AN OCNL LGTNG STRIKE
OCCURRING. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH S/WV RIPPLING NEWD IN SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ASSOC WITH MAIN WV MVG THRU TN
VLY AND IS RIDING UP THRU ERN KY AT THIS TIME.

HV OPTED TO BACK OFF ON POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT SNEAKING INTO FINGER LKS UNTIL
CLOSER TO 08Z THIS MRNG PER LATEST MVMNT ON LINE.  EXPECTING SCTD
SHOWERS AND OCNL THUNDER THRU 11Z BFR WV MVS UP INTO WRN PA AND
COMBINES WITH DEEP LYR MOISTURE TO BUMP POPS TO LKLY CATEGORY. AT
THE SAME TIME UL SPEED MAX, CURRENTLY MVG UP THRU CNTRL GREAT LKS,
WL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THRU THE OVRNGT AND ALLOW FOR ADDNL LIFT.

LKLY SHOWERS CONTINUE THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND WITH MEAGER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG WITH WK LAPSE RATES VRY LITTLE THUNDER
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SEEM RIGHT FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN DVLP AND HV CONTD TO MENTION CHC HVY RAIN.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS TDA HV SIDED TWD COOLER MAV NUMBERS AS OPPOSED TO
MET GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S. ANY AREA THAT CAN SEE SUN
TDA MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK UP INTO THE L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...LEADING SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SINCE
IT BEGINS FAIRLY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION IS UNLIKELY. IF ANY AREA RECEIVES HEATING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS IT WOULD BE THE FAR SE BUT EVEN HERE A MARINE
LAYER MAY BE IN PLACE. IF ENOUGH CAPE IS REALIZED SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AS MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS ARE
RATHER STRONG. WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR TRAINING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO
BOTH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS AND CHC FOR TRW WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO INCLUDED IN GRIDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING
PERIOD ACROSS THE FAR SE FA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. OTHERWISE REST OF AREA WILL BE
MAINLY DRY BY EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BUT
CONTINUED MILD IN HUMID AIRMASS.

MONDAY...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL MAKE FOR A PARTLY
SUNNY DAY AND HUMID CONDITIONS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S.
THERE IS NO TRIGGER BUT DUE TO MOIST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHC POPS.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN NE PA. MAXES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
MOISTENING SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
FRONT...WILL CAUSE LOWERING MVFR CIG TO DEVELOP FOR MOST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. IFR CIG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY HILLTOP
SITE KBGM TOWARDS DAWN AS ALREADY INDICATED IN THE TAF. 40 KT SSW
LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2 KFT AGL WILL PRECEDE AN EMBEDDED WAVE FOR
MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS KSYR-KRME FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
PROBABLY BELOW LLWS THRESHOLD AT OTHER TERMINALS. INITIAL WAVE
WILL YIELD SCT LATE NIGHT -SHRA KRME-KSYR...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
AND FRONT ITSELF AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
SHRA MOST LIKELY DUE TO ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT EMBEDDED
TSRA MAY OCCUR AS WELL. REGARDLESS...MOST TERMINALS STUCK WITH AN
MVFR CIG DURING THE DAY. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE CB FOR
ANY TERMINALS YET AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT/EXCEPT ESE KRME/...VEERING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS
DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...POST-FRONTAL MVFR/PATCHY IFR CIGS.

MON-TUE...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA-TSRA MAINLY
AFTN-EVNG...ESPECIALLY TUE.

WED-THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 310254
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1054 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1051 PM EDT UPDATE...
A QUIET NIGHT IS ONGOING OVER THE CWA AS OVERCAST SKIES DOMINATES
OVER THE REGION. HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT AS DEVELOPED AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALSO
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST STILL GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
AT 4 PM...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW MARINE LAYER CONTINUES ACROSS
NE PA, WESTERN CATSKILLS AND LOCAL SOUTHERN TIER. THIS BKN/OVC
DECK MAY BREAK UP BY EARLY EVENING BUT WILL REFORM OVERNIGHT IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. REST OF FA IS MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE CAPE VALUES ARE
AROUND 1000 J/KG. IF THIS OCCURS THEY MAY TRACK ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES AND LAKE PLAIN BUT ANY COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
AND ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

LATE TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE TN VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES AND ENHANCE ACTIVITY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONTINUED WITH TREND OF INCREASING POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY DAYBREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NRN/WRN CWA.

DUE TO JUICY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S AND FEEL MUGGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...LEADING SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SINCE
IT BEGINS FAIRLY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION IS UNLIKELY. IF ANY AREA RECEIVES HEATING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS IT WOULD BE THE FAR SE BUT EVEN HERE A MARINE
LAYER MAY BE IN PLACE. IF ENOUGH CAPE IS REALIZED SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AS MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS ARE
RATHER STRONG. WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR TRAINING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO
BOTH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS AND CHC FOR TRW WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO INCLUDED IN GRIDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING
PERIOD ACROSS THE FAR SE FA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. OTHERWISE REST OF AREA WILL BE
MAINLY DRY BY EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BUT
CONTINUED MILD IN HUMID AIRMASS.

MONDAY...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL MAKE FOR A PARTLY
SUNNY DAY AND HUMID CONDITIONS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S.
THERE IS NO TRIGGER BUT DUE TO MOIST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHC POPS.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN NE PA. MAXES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
MOISTENING SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
FRONT...WILL CAUSE LOWERING MVFR CIG TO DEVELOP FOR MOST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. IFR CIG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY HILLTOP
SITE KBGM TOWARDS DAWN AS ALREADY INDICATED IN THE TAF. 40 KT SSW
LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2 KFT AGL WILL PRECEDE AN EMBEDDED WAVE FOR
MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS KSYR-KRME FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
PROBABLY BELOW LLWS THRESHOLD AT OTHER TERMINALS. INITIAL WAVE
WILL YIELD SCT LATE NIGHT -SHRA KRME-KSYR...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
AND FRONT ITSELF AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
SHRA MOST LIKELY DUE TO ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT EMBEDDED
TSRA MAY OCCUR AS WELL. REGARDLESS...MOST TERMINALS STUCK WITH AN
MVFR CIG DURING THE DAY. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE CB FOR
ANY TERMINALS YET AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT/EXCEPT ESE KRME/...VEERING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS
DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...POST-FRONTAL MVFR/PATCHY IFR CIGS.

MON-TUE...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA-TSRA MAINLY
AFTN-EVNG...ESPECIALLY TUE.

WED-THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...KAH/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MDP









000
FXUS61 KBGM 310254
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1054 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1051 PM EDT UPDATE...
A QUIET NIGHT IS ONGOING OVER THE CWA AS OVERCAST SKIES DOMINATES
OVER THE REGION. HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT AS DEVELOPED AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALSO
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST STILL GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
AT 4 PM...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW MARINE LAYER CONTINUES ACROSS
NE PA, WESTERN CATSKILLS AND LOCAL SOUTHERN TIER. THIS BKN/OVC
DECK MAY BREAK UP BY EARLY EVENING BUT WILL REFORM OVERNIGHT IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. REST OF FA IS MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE CAPE VALUES ARE
AROUND 1000 J/KG. IF THIS OCCURS THEY MAY TRACK ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES AND LAKE PLAIN BUT ANY COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
AND ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

LATE TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE TN VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES AND ENHANCE ACTIVITY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONTINUED WITH TREND OF INCREASING POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY DAYBREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NRN/WRN CWA.

DUE TO JUICY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S AND FEEL MUGGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...LEADING SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SINCE
IT BEGINS FAIRLY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION IS UNLIKELY. IF ANY AREA RECEIVES HEATING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS IT WOULD BE THE FAR SE BUT EVEN HERE A MARINE
LAYER MAY BE IN PLACE. IF ENOUGH CAPE IS REALIZED SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AS MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS ARE
RATHER STRONG. WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR TRAINING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO
BOTH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS AND CHC FOR TRW WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO INCLUDED IN GRIDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING
PERIOD ACROSS THE FAR SE FA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. OTHERWISE REST OF AREA WILL BE
MAINLY DRY BY EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BUT
CONTINUED MILD IN HUMID AIRMASS.

MONDAY...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL MAKE FOR A PARTLY
SUNNY DAY AND HUMID CONDITIONS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S.
THERE IS NO TRIGGER BUT DUE TO MOIST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHC POPS.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN NE PA. MAXES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
MOISTENING SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
FRONT...WILL CAUSE LOWERING MVFR CIG TO DEVELOP FOR MOST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. IFR CIG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY HILLTOP
SITE KBGM TOWARDS DAWN AS ALREADY INDICATED IN THE TAF. 40 KT SSW
LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2 KFT AGL WILL PRECEDE AN EMBEDDED WAVE FOR
MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS KSYR-KRME FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
PROBABLY BELOW LLWS THRESHOLD AT OTHER TERMINALS. INITIAL WAVE
WILL YIELD SCT LATE NIGHT -SHRA KRME-KSYR...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
AND FRONT ITSELF AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
SHRA MOST LIKELY DUE TO ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT EMBEDDED
TSRA MAY OCCUR AS WELL. REGARDLESS...MOST TERMINALS STUCK WITH AN
MVFR CIG DURING THE DAY. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE CB FOR
ANY TERMINALS YET AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT/EXCEPT ESE KRME/...VEERING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS
DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...POST-FRONTAL MVFR/PATCHY IFR CIGS.

MON-TUE...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA-TSRA MAINLY
AFTN-EVNG...ESPECIALLY TUE.

WED-THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...KAH/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 302349
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
749 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
720 PM EDT UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE PRESENT THIS EVENING. SHOWERS APPEAR TO
BE WEST OF OUR CWA AND EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH AROUND 10PM TONIGHT. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TEMPS... OTHERWISE... PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
AT 4 PM...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW MARINE LAYER CONTINUES ACROSS
NE PA, WESTERN CATSKILLS AND LOCAL SOUTHERN TIER. THIS BKN/OVC
DECK MAY BREAK UP BY EARLY EVENING BUT WILL REFORM OVERNIGHT IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. REST OF FA IS MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE CAPE VALUES ARE
AROUND 1000 J/KG. IF THIS OCCURS THEY MAY TRACK ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES AND LAKE PLAIN BUT ANY COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
AND ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

LATE TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE TN VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES AND ENHANCE ACTIVITY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONTINUED WITH TREND OF INCREASING POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY DAYBREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NRN/WRN CWA.

DUE TO JUICY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S AND FEEL MUGGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...LEADING SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SINCE
IT BEGINS FAIRLY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION IS UNLIKELY. IF ANY AREA RECEIVES HEATING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS IT WOULD BE THE FAR SE BUT EVEN HERE A MARINE
LAYER MAY BE IN PLACE. IF ENOUGH CAPE IS REALIZED SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AS MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS ARE
RATHER STRONG. WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR TRAINING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO
BOTH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS AND CHC FOR TRW WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO INCLUDED IN GRIDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING
PERIOD ACROSS THE FAR SE FA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. OTHERWISE REST OF AREA WILL BE
MAINLY DRY BY EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BUT
CONTINUED MILD IN HUMID AIRMASS.

MONDAY...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL MAKE FOR A PARTLY
SUNNY DAY AND HUMID CONDITIONS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S.
THERE IS NO TRIGGER BUT DUE TO MOIST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHC POPS.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN NE PA. MAXES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
MOISTENING SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
FRONT...WILL CAUSE LOWERING MVFR CIG TO DEVELOP FOR MOST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. IFR CIG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY HILLTOP
SITE KBGM TOWARDS DAWN AS ALREADY INDICATED IN THE TAF. 40 KT SSW
LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2 KFT AGL WILL PRECEDE AN EMBEDDED WAVE FOR
MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS KSYR-KRME FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
PROBABLY BELOW LLWS THRESHOLD AT OTHER TERMINALS. INITIAL WAVE
WILL YIELD SCT LATE NIGHT -SHRA KRME-KSYR...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
AND FRONT ITSELF AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
SHRA MOST LIKELY DUE TO ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT EMBEDDED
TSRA MAY OCCUR AS WELL. REGARDLESS...MOST TERMINALS STUCK WITH AN
MVFR CIG DURING THE DAY. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE CB FOR
ANY TERMINALS YET AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT/EXCEPT ESE KRME/...VEERING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS
DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...POST-FRONTAL MVFR/PATCHY IFR CIGS.

MON-TUE...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA-TSRA MAINLY
AFTN-EVNG...ESPECIALLY TUE.

WED-THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...KAH/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 302349
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
749 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
720 PM EDT UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE PRESENT THIS EVENING. SHOWERS APPEAR TO
BE WEST OF OUR CWA AND EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH AROUND 10PM TONIGHT. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TEMPS... OTHERWISE... PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
AT 4 PM...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW MARINE LAYER CONTINUES ACROSS
NE PA, WESTERN CATSKILLS AND LOCAL SOUTHERN TIER. THIS BKN/OVC
DECK MAY BREAK UP BY EARLY EVENING BUT WILL REFORM OVERNIGHT IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. REST OF FA IS MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE CAPE VALUES ARE
AROUND 1000 J/KG. IF THIS OCCURS THEY MAY TRACK ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES AND LAKE PLAIN BUT ANY COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
AND ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

LATE TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE TN VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES AND ENHANCE ACTIVITY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONTINUED WITH TREND OF INCREASING POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY DAYBREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NRN/WRN CWA.

DUE TO JUICY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S AND FEEL MUGGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...LEADING SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SINCE
IT BEGINS FAIRLY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION IS UNLIKELY. IF ANY AREA RECEIVES HEATING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS IT WOULD BE THE FAR SE BUT EVEN HERE A MARINE
LAYER MAY BE IN PLACE. IF ENOUGH CAPE IS REALIZED SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AS MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS ARE
RATHER STRONG. WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR TRAINING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO
BOTH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS AND CHC FOR TRW WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO INCLUDED IN GRIDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING
PERIOD ACROSS THE FAR SE FA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. OTHERWISE REST OF AREA WILL BE
MAINLY DRY BY EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BUT
CONTINUED MILD IN HUMID AIRMASS.

MONDAY...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL MAKE FOR A PARTLY
SUNNY DAY AND HUMID CONDITIONS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S.
THERE IS NO TRIGGER BUT DUE TO MOIST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHC POPS.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN NE PA. MAXES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
MOISTENING SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
FRONT...WILL CAUSE LOWERING MVFR CIG TO DEVELOP FOR MOST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. IFR CIG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY HILLTOP
SITE KBGM TOWARDS DAWN AS ALREADY INDICATED IN THE TAF. 40 KT SSW
LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2 KFT AGL WILL PRECEDE AN EMBEDDED WAVE FOR
MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS KSYR-KRME FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
PROBABLY BELOW LLWS THRESHOLD AT OTHER TERMINALS. INITIAL WAVE
WILL YIELD SCT LATE NIGHT -SHRA KRME-KSYR...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
AND FRONT ITSELF AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
SHRA MOST LIKELY DUE TO ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT EMBEDDED
TSRA MAY OCCUR AS WELL. REGARDLESS...MOST TERMINALS STUCK WITH AN
MVFR CIG DURING THE DAY. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE CB FOR
ANY TERMINALS YET AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT/EXCEPT ESE KRME/...VEERING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS
DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...POST-FRONTAL MVFR/PATCHY IFR CIGS.

MON-TUE...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA-TSRA MAINLY
AFTN-EVNG...ESPECIALLY TUE.

WED-THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...KAH/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 302328
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
727 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
720 PM EDT UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE PRESENT THIS EVENING. SHOWERS APPEAR TO
BE WEST OF OUR CWA AND EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH AROUND 10PM TONIGHT. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TEMPS... OTHERWISE... PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
AT 4 PM...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW MARINE LAYER CONTINUES ACROSS
NE PA, WESTERN CATSKILLS AND LOCAL SOUTHERN TIER. THIS BKN/OVC
DECK MAY BREAK UP BY EARLY EVENING BUT WILL REFORM OVERNIGHT IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. REST OF FA IS MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE CAPE VALUES ARE
AROUND 1000 J/KG. IF THIS OCCURS THEY MAY TRACK ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES AND LAKE PLAIN BUT ANY COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
AND ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

LATE TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE TN VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES AND ENHANCE ACTIVITY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONTINUED WITH TREND OF INCREASING POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY DAYBREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NRN/WRN CWA.

DUE TO JUICY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S AND FEEL MUGGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...LEADING SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SINCE
IT BEGINS FAIRLY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION IS UNLIKELY. IF ANY AREA RECEIVES HEATING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS IT WOULD BE THE FAR SE BUT EVEN HERE A MARINE
LAYER MAY BE IN PLACE. IF ENOUGH CAPE IS REALIZED SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AS MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS ARE
RATHER STRONG. WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR TRAINING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO
BOTH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS AND CHC FOR TRW WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO INCLUDED IN GRIDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING
PERIOD ACROSS THE FAR SE FA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. OTHERWISE REST OF AREA WILL BE
MAINLY DRY BY EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BUT
CONTINUED MILD IN HUMID AIRMASS.

MONDAY...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL MAKE FOR A PARTLY
SUNNY DAY AND HUMID CONDITIONS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S.
THERE IS NO TRIGGER BUT DUE TO MOIST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHC POPS.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN NE PA. MAXES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS ACRS THE BGM CWA THIS AFTN WITH MVFR PERSISTING
AT BGM/AVP DUE TO STRATUS...AND VFR ELSEWHERE WITH SCT MID CLD.
THINK BGM COULD BREAK OUT FOR A WHILE THIS AFTN TO VFR AS IT`S ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOWER CLDS...CAN`T RULE OUT BRIEF VFR AT
AVP IF DECK LIFTS A BIT THIS AFTN BUT APPEARS LESS LIKELY THERE.
LATER THIS EVNG...STRATUS DECK IS XPCTD TO NWD INTO CNTRL NY
(ITH/ELM/BGM) IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...AND PSBLY INTO RME. ATTM
THINK VFR WILL CONTINUE AT SYR TIL VRY LATE TNGT. XPCT AN AREA OF
SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA TO BE WORKING NEWD INTO CNTRL NY BY DAYBREAK
WITH WDPSRD IFR/MVFR ACRS CNTRL NY. MVFR CIGS AT AVP BUT MAIN
BATCH OF PCPN SHUD REMAIN NW OF THEM THRU 18Z SUNDAY...SO TEMPOS
FOR -SHRA THERE. WINDS THIS AFTN SRLY 10-15 KTS...DCRSNG TO 5-10
KTS THIS EVNG...BECMG SWLY ON SUNDAY 5-10 KTS.


OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...MVFR AND PATCHY IFR DUE TO CIGS.

MON/MON NGT...MAINLY VFR.

TUE/TUE NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY AFTN/EVNG.

WED/THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...KAH/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...










000
FXUS61 KBGM 302328
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
727 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
720 PM EDT UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE PRESENT THIS EVENING. SHOWERS APPEAR TO
BE WEST OF OUR CWA AND EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH AROUND 10PM TONIGHT. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TEMPS... OTHERWISE... PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
AT 4 PM...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW MARINE LAYER CONTINUES ACROSS
NE PA, WESTERN CATSKILLS AND LOCAL SOUTHERN TIER. THIS BKN/OVC
DECK MAY BREAK UP BY EARLY EVENING BUT WILL REFORM OVERNIGHT IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. REST OF FA IS MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE CAPE VALUES ARE
AROUND 1000 J/KG. IF THIS OCCURS THEY MAY TRACK ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES AND LAKE PLAIN BUT ANY COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
AND ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

LATE TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE TN VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES AND ENHANCE ACTIVITY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONTINUED WITH TREND OF INCREASING POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY DAYBREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NRN/WRN CWA.

DUE TO JUICY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S AND FEEL MUGGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...LEADING SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SINCE
IT BEGINS FAIRLY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION IS UNLIKELY. IF ANY AREA RECEIVES HEATING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS IT WOULD BE THE FAR SE BUT EVEN HERE A MARINE
LAYER MAY BE IN PLACE. IF ENOUGH CAPE IS REALIZED SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AS MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS ARE
RATHER STRONG. WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR TRAINING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO
BOTH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS AND CHC FOR TRW WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO INCLUDED IN GRIDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING
PERIOD ACROSS THE FAR SE FA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. OTHERWISE REST OF AREA WILL BE
MAINLY DRY BY EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BUT
CONTINUED MILD IN HUMID AIRMASS.

MONDAY...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL MAKE FOR A PARTLY
SUNNY DAY AND HUMID CONDITIONS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S.
THERE IS NO TRIGGER BUT DUE TO MOIST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHC POPS.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN NE PA. MAXES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS ACRS THE BGM CWA THIS AFTN WITH MVFR PERSISTING
AT BGM/AVP DUE TO STRATUS...AND VFR ELSEWHERE WITH SCT MID CLD.
THINK BGM COULD BREAK OUT FOR A WHILE THIS AFTN TO VFR AS IT`S ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOWER CLDS...CAN`T RULE OUT BRIEF VFR AT
AVP IF DECK LIFTS A BIT THIS AFTN BUT APPEARS LESS LIKELY THERE.
LATER THIS EVNG...STRATUS DECK IS XPCTD TO NWD INTO CNTRL NY
(ITH/ELM/BGM) IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...AND PSBLY INTO RME. ATTM
THINK VFR WILL CONTINUE AT SYR TIL VRY LATE TNGT. XPCT AN AREA OF
SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA TO BE WORKING NEWD INTO CNTRL NY BY DAYBREAK
WITH WDPSRD IFR/MVFR ACRS CNTRL NY. MVFR CIGS AT AVP BUT MAIN
BATCH OF PCPN SHUD REMAIN NW OF THEM THRU 18Z SUNDAY...SO TEMPOS
FOR -SHRA THERE. WINDS THIS AFTN SRLY 10-15 KTS...DCRSNG TO 5-10
KTS THIS EVNG...BECMG SWLY ON SUNDAY 5-10 KTS.


OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...MVFR AND PATCHY IFR DUE TO CIGS.

MON/MON NGT...MAINLY VFR.

TUE/TUE NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY AFTN/EVNG.

WED/THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...KAH/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...









000
FXUS61 KBGM 302006
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
406 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 4 PM...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW MARINE LAYER CONTINUES ACROSS
NE PA, WESTERN CATSKILLS AND LOCAL SOUTHERN TIER. THIS BKN/OVC
DECK MAY BREAK UP BY EARLY EVENING BUT WILL REFORM OVERNIGHT IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. REST OF FA IS MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE CAPE VALUES ARE
AROUND 1000 J/KG. IF THIS OCCURS THEY MAY TRACK ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES AND LAKE PLAIN BUT ANY COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
AND ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

LATE TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE TN VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES AND ENHANCE ACTIVITY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONTINUED WITH TREND OF INCREASING POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY DAYBREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NRN/WRN CWA.

DUE TO JUICY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S AND FEEL MUGGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...LEADING SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SINCE
IT BEGINS FAIRLY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION IS UNLIKELY. IF ANY AREA RECEIVES HEATING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS IT WOULD BE THE FAR SE BUT EVEN HERE A MARINE
LAYER MAY BE IN PLACE. IF ENOUGH CAPE IS REALIZED SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AS MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS ARE
RATHER STRONG. WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR TRAINING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO
BOTH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS AND CHC FOR TRW WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO INCLUDED IN GRIDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING
PERIOD ACROSS THE FAR SE FA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. OTHERWISE REST OF AREA WILL BE
MAINLY DRY BY EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BUT
CONTINUED MILD IN HUMID AIRMASS.

MONDAY...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL MAKE FOR A PARTLY
SUNNY DAY AND HUMID CONDITIONS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S.
THERE IS NO TRIGGER BUT DUE TO MOIST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHC POPS.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN NE PA. MAXES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS ACRS THE BGM CWA THIS AFTN WITH MVFR PERSISTING
AT BGM/AVP DUE TO STRATUS...AND VFR ELSEWHERE WITH SCT MID CLD.
THINK BGM COULD BREAK OUT FOR A WHILE THIS AFTN TO VFR AS IT`S ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOWER CLDS...CAN`T RULE OUT BRIEF VFR AT
AVP IF DECK LIFTS A BIT THIS AFTN BUT APPEARS LESS LIKELY THERE.
LATER THIS EVNG...STRATUS DECK IS XPCTD TO NWD INTO CNTRL NY
(ITH/ELM/BGM) IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...AND PSBLY INTO RME. ATTM
THINK VFR WILL CONTINUE AT SYR TIL VRY LATE TNGT. XPCT AN AREA OF
SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA TO BE WORKING NEWD INTO CNTRL NY BY DAYBREAK
WITH WDPSRD IFR/MVFR ACRS CNTRL NY. MVFR CIGS AT AVP BUT MAIN
BATCH OF PCPN SHUD REMAIN NW OF THEM THRU 18Z SUNDAY...SO TEMPOS
FOR -SHRA THERE. WINDS THIS AFTN SRLY 10-15 KTS...DCRSNG TO 5-10
KTS THIS EVNG...BECMG SWLY ON SUNDAY 5-10 KTS.


OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...MVFR AND PATCHY IFR DUE TO CIGS.

MON/MON NGT...MAINLY VFR.

TUE/TUE NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY AFTN/EVNG.

WED/THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 302006
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
406 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 4 PM...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW MARINE LAYER CONTINUES ACROSS
NE PA, WESTERN CATSKILLS AND LOCAL SOUTHERN TIER. THIS BKN/OVC
DECK MAY BREAK UP BY EARLY EVENING BUT WILL REFORM OVERNIGHT IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. REST OF FA IS MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE CAPE VALUES ARE
AROUND 1000 J/KG. IF THIS OCCURS THEY MAY TRACK ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES AND LAKE PLAIN BUT ANY COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
AND ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

LATE TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE TN VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES AND ENHANCE ACTIVITY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONTINUED WITH TREND OF INCREASING POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY DAYBREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NRN/WRN CWA.

DUE TO JUICY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S AND FEEL MUGGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...LEADING SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SINCE
IT BEGINS FAIRLY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION IS UNLIKELY. IF ANY AREA RECEIVES HEATING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS IT WOULD BE THE FAR SE BUT EVEN HERE A MARINE
LAYER MAY BE IN PLACE. IF ENOUGH CAPE IS REALIZED SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AS MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS ARE
RATHER STRONG. WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR TRAINING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO
BOTH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS AND CHC FOR TRW WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO INCLUDED IN GRIDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING
PERIOD ACROSS THE FAR SE FA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. OTHERWISE REST OF AREA WILL BE
MAINLY DRY BY EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BUT
CONTINUED MILD IN HUMID AIRMASS.

MONDAY...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL MAKE FOR A PARTLY
SUNNY DAY AND HUMID CONDITIONS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S.
THERE IS NO TRIGGER BUT DUE TO MOIST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHC POPS.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN NE PA. MAXES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS ACRS THE BGM CWA THIS AFTN WITH MVFR PERSISTING
AT BGM/AVP DUE TO STRATUS...AND VFR ELSEWHERE WITH SCT MID CLD.
THINK BGM COULD BREAK OUT FOR A WHILE THIS AFTN TO VFR AS IT`S ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOWER CLDS...CAN`T RULE OUT BRIEF VFR AT
AVP IF DECK LIFTS A BIT THIS AFTN BUT APPEARS LESS LIKELY THERE.
LATER THIS EVNG...STRATUS DECK IS XPCTD TO NWD INTO CNTRL NY
(ITH/ELM/BGM) IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...AND PSBLY INTO RME. ATTM
THINK VFR WILL CONTINUE AT SYR TIL VRY LATE TNGT. XPCT AN AREA OF
SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA TO BE WORKING NEWD INTO CNTRL NY BY DAYBREAK
WITH WDPSRD IFR/MVFR ACRS CNTRL NY. MVFR CIGS AT AVP BUT MAIN
BATCH OF PCPN SHUD REMAIN NW OF THEM THRU 18Z SUNDAY...SO TEMPOS
FOR -SHRA THERE. WINDS THIS AFTN SRLY 10-15 KTS...DCRSNG TO 5-10
KTS THIS EVNG...BECMG SWLY ON SUNDAY 5-10 KTS.


OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...MVFR AND PATCHY IFR DUE TO CIGS.

MON/MON NGT...MAINLY VFR.

TUE/TUE NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY AFTN/EVNG.

WED/THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 301755
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
155 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TODAY. A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1210 PM UPDATE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING TUFF FROM THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO NORTHEAST PA. EVEN THOUGH
IMPROVEMENT IS STILL EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CHANGE
FORECAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. TEMPS
HERE WILL MAX OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WHILE AREAS JUST WEST
ENJOY A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER DAY.

1030 AM UPDATE...LATEST SAT PICS SHOW MARINE LAYER (LOW CLOUDS)
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST PA
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. LATEST TRENDS SHOW THIS AREA EXPANDING
WHICH MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR THEN MIXING, LOW LEVEL DRYING,
WILL BREAK THIS OVC DECK INTO SCT/BKN FAIR WX CUMULUS. A SIGNIFICANT
MAX TEMP GRADIENT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM EAST TO WEST AS
T925 WILL BE 20-22C IN THE LAKE PLAIN AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER
WITH THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AROUND 17-18C. BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID
80S IN FAR WESTERN SECTIONS WHILE MID/UPR 70S STILL LOOK REASONABLE
IN THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISC..
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM PULLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN
CANADA.

925MB TEMPS IN THE 18C-20C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 OVER THE NORTHERN FA AND IN THE MID 70S OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN FA WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL MARINE FLOW
PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UL TROF PROGRESSES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF
APPROACHES LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT, AND PASSES THROUGH NY/PA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER DUE TO POOR LL AND ML
LAPSE RATES, COPIOUS MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH PLAN VIEW PWATS
ABOVE 1.50 INCHES FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. IT MAY PEAK ABOVE 1.75
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT CAPE IS TOO LOW FOR A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.

LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF STILL HANGING AROUND ON
MONDAY WHILE UL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CONVECTION EVEN ON MONDAY, SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS ACRS THE BGM CWA THIS AFTN WITH MVFR PERSISTING
AT BGM/AVP DUE TO STRATUS...AND VFR ELSEWHERE WITH SCT MID CLD.
THINK BGM COULD BREAK OUT FOR A WHILE THIS AFTN TO VFR AS IT`S ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOWER CLDS...CAN`T RULE OUT BRIEF VFR AT
AVP IF DECK LIFTS A BIT THIS AFTN BUT APPEARS LESS LIKELY THERE.
LATER THIS EVNG...STRATUS DECK IS XPCTD TO NWD INTO CNTRL NY
(ITH/ELM/BGM) IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...AND PSBLY INTO RME. ATTM
THINK VFR WILL CONTINUE AT SYR TIL VRY LATE TNGT. XPCT AN AREA OF
SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA TO BE WORKING NEWD INTO CNTRL NY BY DAYBREAK
WITH WDPSRD IFR/MVFR ACRS CNTRL NY. MVFR CIGS AT AVP BUT MAIN
BATCH OF PCPN SHUD REMAIN NW OF THEM THRU 18Z SUNDAY...SO TEMPOS
FOR -SHRA THERE. WINDS THIS AFTN SRLY 10-15 KTS...DCRSNG TO 5-10
KTS THIS EVNG...BECMG SWLY ON SUNDAY 5-10 KTS.


OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...MVFR AND PATCHY IFR DUE TO CIGS.

MON/MON NGT...MAINLY VFR.

TUE/TUE NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY AFTN/EVNG.

WED/THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP





000
FXUS61 KBGM 301755
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
155 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TODAY. A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1210 PM UPDATE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING TUFF FROM THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO NORTHEAST PA. EVEN THOUGH
IMPROVEMENT IS STILL EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CHANGE
FORECAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. TEMPS
HERE WILL MAX OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WHILE AREAS JUST WEST
ENJOY A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER DAY.

1030 AM UPDATE...LATEST SAT PICS SHOW MARINE LAYER (LOW CLOUDS)
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST PA
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. LATEST TRENDS SHOW THIS AREA EXPANDING
WHICH MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR THEN MIXING, LOW LEVEL DRYING,
WILL BREAK THIS OVC DECK INTO SCT/BKN FAIR WX CUMULUS. A SIGNIFICANT
MAX TEMP GRADIENT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM EAST TO WEST AS
T925 WILL BE 20-22C IN THE LAKE PLAIN AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER
WITH THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AROUND 17-18C. BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID
80S IN FAR WESTERN SECTIONS WHILE MID/UPR 70S STILL LOOK REASONABLE
IN THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISC..
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM PULLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN
CANADA.

925MB TEMPS IN THE 18C-20C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 OVER THE NORTHERN FA AND IN THE MID 70S OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN FA WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL MARINE FLOW
PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UL TROF PROGRESSES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF
APPROACHES LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT, AND PASSES THROUGH NY/PA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER DUE TO POOR LL AND ML
LAPSE RATES, COPIOUS MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH PLAN VIEW PWATS
ABOVE 1.50 INCHES FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. IT MAY PEAK ABOVE 1.75
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT CAPE IS TOO LOW FOR A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.

LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF STILL HANGING AROUND ON
MONDAY WHILE UL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CONVECTION EVEN ON MONDAY, SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS ACRS THE BGM CWA THIS AFTN WITH MVFR PERSISTING
AT BGM/AVP DUE TO STRATUS...AND VFR ELSEWHERE WITH SCT MID CLD.
THINK BGM COULD BREAK OUT FOR A WHILE THIS AFTN TO VFR AS IT`S ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOWER CLDS...CAN`T RULE OUT BRIEF VFR AT
AVP IF DECK LIFTS A BIT THIS AFTN BUT APPEARS LESS LIKELY THERE.
LATER THIS EVNG...STRATUS DECK IS XPCTD TO NWD INTO CNTRL NY
(ITH/ELM/BGM) IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...AND PSBLY INTO RME. ATTM
THINK VFR WILL CONTINUE AT SYR TIL VRY LATE TNGT. XPCT AN AREA OF
SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA TO BE WORKING NEWD INTO CNTRL NY BY DAYBREAK
WITH WDPSRD IFR/MVFR ACRS CNTRL NY. MVFR CIGS AT AVP BUT MAIN
BATCH OF PCPN SHUD REMAIN NW OF THEM THRU 18Z SUNDAY...SO TEMPOS
FOR -SHRA THERE. WINDS THIS AFTN SRLY 10-15 KTS...DCRSNG TO 5-10
KTS THIS EVNG...BECMG SWLY ON SUNDAY 5-10 KTS.


OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...MVFR AND PATCHY IFR DUE TO CIGS.

MON/MON NGT...MAINLY VFR.

TUE/TUE NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY AFTN/EVNG.

WED/THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 301612
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1212 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TODAY. A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1210 PM UPDATE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING TUFF FROM THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO NORTHEAST PA. EVEN THOUGH
IMPROVEMENT IS STILL EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CHANGE
FORECAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. TEMPS
HERE WILL MAX OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WHILE AREAS JUST WEST
ENJOY A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER DAY.

1030 AM UPDATE...LATEST SAT PICS SHOW MARINE LAYER (LOW CLOUDS)
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST PA
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. LATEST TRENDS SHOW THIS AREA EXPANDING
WHICH MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR THEN MIXING, LOW LEVEL DRYING,
WILL BREAK THIS OVC DECK INTO SCT/BKN FAIR WX CUMULUS. A SIGNIFICANT
MAX TEMP GRADIENT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM EAST TO WEST AS
T925 WILL BE 20-22C IN THE LAKE PLAIN AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER
WITH THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AROUND 17-18C. BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID
80S IN FAR WESTERN SECTIONS WHILE MID/UPR 70S STILL LOOK REASONABLE
IN THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISC..
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM PULLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN
CANADA.

925MB TEMPS IN THE 18C-20C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 OVER THE NORTHERN FA AND IN THE MID 70S OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN FA WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL MARINE FLOW
PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UL TROF PROGRESSES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF
APPROACHES LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT, AND PASSES THROUGH NY/PA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER DUE TO POOR LL AND ML
LAPSE RATES, COPIOUS MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH PLAN VIEW PWATS
ABOVE 1.50 INCHES FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. IT MAY PEAK ABOVE 1.75
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT CAPE IS TOO LOW FOR A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.

LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF STILL HANGING AROUND ON
MONDAY WHILE UL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CONVECTION EVEN ON MONDAY, SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
310 AM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE LONG TERM. BUMPED
POPS TO LKLY FOR TUE AS CDFNT PASSES THRU. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE
80S AHD OF FROPA BFR DROPPING SLIGHTLY BY WED, BUT STILL RMNG SLGTLY
ABV SEASONAL VALUES.

FOLLOWING FROPA, FLOW ALOFT WL BCM ZONAL WITH SFC HIPRES BUILDING
IN THRU END OF THE WEEK BFR SHIFTING EAST INTO ATLANTIC. STILL
SOME DISCREPANCY IN MODELS WITH REGARD TO END-OF-WEEK SYSTEM WITH
00Z EC SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN GFS. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
WORK OUT DETAILS AND HV MAINTAINED SLGT CHC-CHC POPS, WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
15Z UPDATE...HAVE INCLUDED POTNL FOR MVFR CIGS AT AVP/BGM DUE TO STRATUS
DECK. THIS DECK SHUD SLOWLY RISE AND GO SCT-BKN BY MID AFTN. VFR
TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE TDA. PREV BLO...

12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING AVP THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
14Z. FURTHER NORTH TOWARD BGM, MAY SEE JUST SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS
FLOAT THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME. STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF AN IFR
VSBY RESTRICTION AT ELM THROUGH 13Z BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER THIS TIME. REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL JUST SEE MID-DECK
MOVING THROUGH. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO TERMINALS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE SAME TIME. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THIS EARLY AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PROB30 IN AT THIS TIME
FOR ALL NY TERMINALS.

WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 301612
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1212 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TODAY. A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1210 PM UPDATE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING TUFF FROM THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO NORTHEAST PA. EVEN THOUGH
IMPROVEMENT IS STILL EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CHANGE
FORECAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. TEMPS
HERE WILL MAX OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WHILE AREAS JUST WEST
ENJOY A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER DAY.

1030 AM UPDATE...LATEST SAT PICS SHOW MARINE LAYER (LOW CLOUDS)
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST PA
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. LATEST TRENDS SHOW THIS AREA EXPANDING
WHICH MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR THEN MIXING, LOW LEVEL DRYING,
WILL BREAK THIS OVC DECK INTO SCT/BKN FAIR WX CUMULUS. A SIGNIFICANT
MAX TEMP GRADIENT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM EAST TO WEST AS
T925 WILL BE 20-22C IN THE LAKE PLAIN AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER
WITH THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AROUND 17-18C. BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID
80S IN FAR WESTERN SECTIONS WHILE MID/UPR 70S STILL LOOK REASONABLE
IN THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISC..
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM PULLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN
CANADA.

925MB TEMPS IN THE 18C-20C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 OVER THE NORTHERN FA AND IN THE MID 70S OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN FA WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL MARINE FLOW
PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UL TROF PROGRESSES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF
APPROACHES LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT, AND PASSES THROUGH NY/PA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER DUE TO POOR LL AND ML
LAPSE RATES, COPIOUS MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH PLAN VIEW PWATS
ABOVE 1.50 INCHES FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. IT MAY PEAK ABOVE 1.75
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT CAPE IS TOO LOW FOR A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.

LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF STILL HANGING AROUND ON
MONDAY WHILE UL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CONVECTION EVEN ON MONDAY, SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
310 AM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE LONG TERM. BUMPED
POPS TO LKLY FOR TUE AS CDFNT PASSES THRU. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE
80S AHD OF FROPA BFR DROPPING SLIGHTLY BY WED, BUT STILL RMNG SLGTLY
ABV SEASONAL VALUES.

FOLLOWING FROPA, FLOW ALOFT WL BCM ZONAL WITH SFC HIPRES BUILDING
IN THRU END OF THE WEEK BFR SHIFTING EAST INTO ATLANTIC. STILL
SOME DISCREPANCY IN MODELS WITH REGARD TO END-OF-WEEK SYSTEM WITH
00Z EC SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN GFS. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
WORK OUT DETAILS AND HV MAINTAINED SLGT CHC-CHC POPS, WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
15Z UPDATE...HAVE INCLUDED POTNL FOR MVFR CIGS AT AVP/BGM DUE TO STRATUS
DECK. THIS DECK SHUD SLOWLY RISE AND GO SCT-BKN BY MID AFTN. VFR
TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE TDA. PREV BLO...

12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING AVP THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
14Z. FURTHER NORTH TOWARD BGM, MAY SEE JUST SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS
FLOAT THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME. STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF AN IFR
VSBY RESTRICTION AT ELM THROUGH 13Z BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER THIS TIME. REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL JUST SEE MID-DECK
MOVING THROUGH. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO TERMINALS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE SAME TIME. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THIS EARLY AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PROB30 IN AT THIS TIME
FOR ALL NY TERMINALS.

WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 301525
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1125 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TODAY. A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...LATEST SAT PICS SHOW MARINE LAYER (LOW CLOUDS)
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST PA
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. LATEST TRENDS SHOW THIS AREA EXPANDING
WHICH MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR THEN MIXING, LOW LEVEL DRYING,
WILL BREAK THIS OVC DECK INTO SCT/BKN FAIR WX CUMULUS. A SIGNIFICANT
MAX TEMP GRADIENT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM EAST TO WEST AS
T925 WILL BE 20-22C IN THE LAKE PLAIN AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER
WITH THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AROUND 17-18C. BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID
80S IN FAR WESTERN SECTIONS WHILE MID/UPR 70S STILL LOOK REASONABLE
IN THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISC..
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM PULLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN
CANADA.

925MB TEMPS IN THE 18C-20C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 OVER THE NORTHERN FA AND IN THE MID 70S OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN FA WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL MARINE FLOW
PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UL TROF PROGRESSES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF
APPROACHES LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT, AND PASSES THROUGH NY/PA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER DUE TO POOR LL AND ML
LAPSE RATES, COPIOUS MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH PLAN VIEW PWATS
ABOVE 1.50 INCHES FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. IT MAY PEAK ABOVE 1.75
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT CAPE IS TOO LOW FOR A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.

LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF STILL HANGING AROUND ON
MONDAY WHILE UL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CONVECTION EVEN ON MONDAY, SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 AM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE LONG TERM. BUMPED
POPS TO LKLY FOR TUE AS CDFNT PASSES THRU. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE
80S AHD OF FROPA BFR DROPPING SLIGHTLY BY WED, BUT STILL RMNG SLGTLY
ABV SEASONAL VALUES.

FOLLOWING FROPA, FLOW ALOFT WL BCM ZONAL WITH SFC HIPRES BUILDING
IN THRU END OF THE WEEK BFR SHIFTING EAST INTO ATLANTIC. STILL
SOME DISCREPANCY IN MODELS WITH REGARD TO END-OF-WEEK SYSTEM WITH
00Z EC SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN GFS. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
WORK OUT DETAILS AND HV MAINTAINED SLGT CHC-CHC POPS, WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
15Z UPDATE...HAVE INCLUDED POTNL FOR MVFR CIGS AT AVP/BGM DUE TO STRATUS
DECK. THIS DECK SHUD SLOWLY RISE AND GO SCT-BKN BY MID AFTN. VFR
TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE TDA. PREV BLO...

12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING AVP THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
14Z. FURTHER NORTH TOWARD BGM, MAY SEE JUST SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS
FLOAT THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME. STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF AN IFR
VSBY RESTRICTION AT ELM THROUGH 13Z BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER THIS TIME. REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL JUST SEE MID-DECK
MOVING THROUGH. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO TERMINALS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE SAME TIME. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THIS EARLY AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PROB30 IN AT THIS TIME
FOR ALL NY TERMINALS.

WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 301525
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1125 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TODAY. A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...LATEST SAT PICS SHOW MARINE LAYER (LOW CLOUDS)
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST PA
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. LATEST TRENDS SHOW THIS AREA EXPANDING
WHICH MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR THEN MIXING, LOW LEVEL DRYING,
WILL BREAK THIS OVC DECK INTO SCT/BKN FAIR WX CUMULUS. A SIGNIFICANT
MAX TEMP GRADIENT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM EAST TO WEST AS
T925 WILL BE 20-22C IN THE LAKE PLAIN AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER
WITH THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AROUND 17-18C. BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID
80S IN FAR WESTERN SECTIONS WHILE MID/UPR 70S STILL LOOK REASONABLE
IN THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISC..
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM PULLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN
CANADA.

925MB TEMPS IN THE 18C-20C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 OVER THE NORTHERN FA AND IN THE MID 70S OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN FA WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL MARINE FLOW
PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UL TROF PROGRESSES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF
APPROACHES LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT, AND PASSES THROUGH NY/PA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER DUE TO POOR LL AND ML
LAPSE RATES, COPIOUS MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH PLAN VIEW PWATS
ABOVE 1.50 INCHES FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. IT MAY PEAK ABOVE 1.75
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT CAPE IS TOO LOW FOR A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.

LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF STILL HANGING AROUND ON
MONDAY WHILE UL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CONVECTION EVEN ON MONDAY, SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 AM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE LONG TERM. BUMPED
POPS TO LKLY FOR TUE AS CDFNT PASSES THRU. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE
80S AHD OF FROPA BFR DROPPING SLIGHTLY BY WED, BUT STILL RMNG SLGTLY
ABV SEASONAL VALUES.

FOLLOWING FROPA, FLOW ALOFT WL BCM ZONAL WITH SFC HIPRES BUILDING
IN THRU END OF THE WEEK BFR SHIFTING EAST INTO ATLANTIC. STILL
SOME DISCREPANCY IN MODELS WITH REGARD TO END-OF-WEEK SYSTEM WITH
00Z EC SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN GFS. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
WORK OUT DETAILS AND HV MAINTAINED SLGT CHC-CHC POPS, WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
15Z UPDATE...HAVE INCLUDED POTNL FOR MVFR CIGS AT AVP/BGM DUE TO STRATUS
DECK. THIS DECK SHUD SLOWLY RISE AND GO SCT-BKN BY MID AFTN. VFR
TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE TDA. PREV BLO...

12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING AVP THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
14Z. FURTHER NORTH TOWARD BGM, MAY SEE JUST SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS
FLOAT THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME. STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF AN IFR
VSBY RESTRICTION AT ELM THROUGH 13Z BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER THIS TIME. REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL JUST SEE MID-DECK
MOVING THROUGH. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO TERMINALS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE SAME TIME. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THIS EARLY AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PROB30 IN AT THIS TIME
FOR ALL NY TERMINALS.

WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 301433
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1033 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TODAY. A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...LATEST SAT PICS SHOW MARINE LAYER (LOW CLOUDS)
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST PA
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. LATEST TRENDS SHOW THIS AREA EXPANDING
WHICH MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR THEN MIXING, LOW LEVEL DRYING,
WILL BREAK THIS OVC DECK INTO SCT/BKN FAIR WX CUMULUS. A SIGNIFICANT
MAX TEMP GRADIENT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM EAST TO WEST AS
T925 WILL BE 20-22C IN THE LAKE PLAIN AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER
WITH THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AROUND 17-18C. BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID
80S IN FAR WESTERN SECTIONS WHILE MID/UPR 70S STILL LOOK REASONABLE
IN THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISC..
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM PULLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN
CANADA.

925MB TEMPS IN THE 18C-20C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 OVER THE NORTHERN FA AND IN THE MID 70S OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN FA WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL MARINE FLOW
PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UL TROF PROGRESSES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF
APPROACHES LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT, AND PASSES THROUGH NY/PA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER DUE TO POOR LL AND ML
LAPSE RATES, COPIOUS MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH PLAN VIEW PWATS
ABOVE 1.50 INCHES FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. IT MAY PEAK ABOVE 1.75
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT CAPE IS TOO LOW FOR A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.

LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF STILL HANGING AROUND ON
MONDAY WHILE UL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CONVECTION EVEN ON MONDAY, SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 AM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE LONG TERM. BUMPED
POPS TO LKLY FOR TUE AS CDFNT PASSES THRU. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE
80S AHD OF FROPA BFR DROPPING SLIGHTLY BY WED, BUT STILL RMNG SLGTLY
ABV SEASONAL VALUES.

FOLLOWING FROPA, FLOW ALOFT WL BCM ZONAL WITH SFC HIPRES BUILDING
IN THRU END OF THE WEEK BFR SHIFTING EAST INTO ATLANTIC. STILL
SOME DISCREPANCY IN MODELS WITH REGARD TO END-OF-WEEK SYSTEM WITH
00Z EC SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN GFS. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
WORK OUT DETAILS AND HV MAINTAINED SLGT CHC-CHC POPS, WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING AVP THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
14Z. FURTHER NORTH TOWARD BGM, MAY SEE JUST SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS
FLOAT THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME. STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF AN IFR
VSBY RESTRICTION AT ELM THROUGH 13Z BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER THIS TIME. REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL JUST SEE MID-DECK
MOVING THROUGH. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO TERMINALS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE SAME TIME. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THIS EARLY AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PROB30 IN AT THIS TIME
FOR ALL NY TERMINALS.

WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 301433
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1033 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TODAY. A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...LATEST SAT PICS SHOW MARINE LAYER (LOW CLOUDS)
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST PA
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. LATEST TRENDS SHOW THIS AREA EXPANDING
WHICH MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR THEN MIXING, LOW LEVEL DRYING,
WILL BREAK THIS OVC DECK INTO SCT/BKN FAIR WX CUMULUS. A SIGNIFICANT
MAX TEMP GRADIENT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM EAST TO WEST AS
T925 WILL BE 20-22C IN THE LAKE PLAIN AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER
WITH THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AROUND 17-18C. BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID
80S IN FAR WESTERN SECTIONS WHILE MID/UPR 70S STILL LOOK REASONABLE
IN THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISC..
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM PULLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN
CANADA.

925MB TEMPS IN THE 18C-20C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 OVER THE NORTHERN FA AND IN THE MID 70S OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN FA WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL MARINE FLOW
PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UL TROF PROGRESSES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF
APPROACHES LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT, AND PASSES THROUGH NY/PA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER DUE TO POOR LL AND ML
LAPSE RATES, COPIOUS MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH PLAN VIEW PWATS
ABOVE 1.50 INCHES FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. IT MAY PEAK ABOVE 1.75
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT CAPE IS TOO LOW FOR A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.

LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF STILL HANGING AROUND ON
MONDAY WHILE UL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CONVECTION EVEN ON MONDAY, SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 AM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE LONG TERM. BUMPED
POPS TO LKLY FOR TUE AS CDFNT PASSES THRU. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE
80S AHD OF FROPA BFR DROPPING SLIGHTLY BY WED, BUT STILL RMNG SLGTLY
ABV SEASONAL VALUES.

FOLLOWING FROPA, FLOW ALOFT WL BCM ZONAL WITH SFC HIPRES BUILDING
IN THRU END OF THE WEEK BFR SHIFTING EAST INTO ATLANTIC. STILL
SOME DISCREPANCY IN MODELS WITH REGARD TO END-OF-WEEK SYSTEM WITH
00Z EC SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN GFS. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
WORK OUT DETAILS AND HV MAINTAINED SLGT CHC-CHC POPS, WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING AVP THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
14Z. FURTHER NORTH TOWARD BGM, MAY SEE JUST SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS
FLOAT THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME. STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF AN IFR
VSBY RESTRICTION AT ELM THROUGH 13Z BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER THIS TIME. REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL JUST SEE MID-DECK
MOVING THROUGH. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO TERMINALS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE SAME TIME. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THIS EARLY AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PROB30 IN AT THIS TIME
FOR ALL NY TERMINALS.

WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 301046
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TODAY. A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM
PULLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN CANADA.

925MB TEMPS IN THE 18C-20C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 OVER THE NORTHERN FA AND IN THE MID 70S OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN FA WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL MARINE FLOW
PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UL TROF PROGRESSES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF
APPROACHES LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT, AND PASSES THROUGH NY/PA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER DUE TO POOR LL AND ML
LAPSE RATES, COPIOUS MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH PLAN VIEW PWATS
ABOVE 1.50 INCHES FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. IT MAY PEAK ABOVE 1.75
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT CAPE IS TOO LOW FOR A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.

LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF STILL HANGING AROUND ON
MONDAY WHILE UL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CONVECTION EVEN ON MONDAY, SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 AM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE LONG TERM. BUMPED
POPS TO LKLY FOR TUE AS CDFNT PASSES THRU. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE
80S AHD OF FROPA BFR DROPPING SLIGHTLY BY WED, BUT STILL RMNG SLGTLY
ABV SEASONAL VALUES.

FOLLOWING FROPA, FLOW ALOFT WL BCM ZONAL WITH SFC HIPRES BUILDING
IN THRU END OF THE WEEK BFR SHIFTING EAST INTO ATLANTIC. STILL
SOME DISCREPANCY IN MODELS WITH REGARD TO END-OF-WEEK SYSTEM WITH
00Z EC SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN GFS. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
WORK OUT DETAILS AND HV MAINTAINED SLGT CHC-CHC POPS, WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING AVP THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
14Z. FURTHER NORTH TOWARD BGM, MAY SEE JUST SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS
FLOAT THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME. STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF AN IFR
VSBY RESTRICTION AT ELM THROUGH 13Z BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER THIS TIME. REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL JUST SEE MID-DECK
MOVING THROUGH. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO TERMINALS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE SAME TIME. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THIS EARLY AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PROB30 IN AT THIS TIME
FOR ALL NY TERMINALS.

WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 301046
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TODAY. A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM
PULLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN CANADA.

925MB TEMPS IN THE 18C-20C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 OVER THE NORTHERN FA AND IN THE MID 70S OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN FA WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL MARINE FLOW
PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UL TROF PROGRESSES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF
APPROACHES LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT, AND PASSES THROUGH NY/PA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER DUE TO POOR LL AND ML
LAPSE RATES, COPIOUS MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH PLAN VIEW PWATS
ABOVE 1.50 INCHES FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. IT MAY PEAK ABOVE 1.75
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT CAPE IS TOO LOW FOR A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.

LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF STILL HANGING AROUND ON
MONDAY WHILE UL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CONVECTION EVEN ON MONDAY, SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 AM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE LONG TERM. BUMPED
POPS TO LKLY FOR TUE AS CDFNT PASSES THRU. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE
80S AHD OF FROPA BFR DROPPING SLIGHTLY BY WED, BUT STILL RMNG SLGTLY
ABV SEASONAL VALUES.

FOLLOWING FROPA, FLOW ALOFT WL BCM ZONAL WITH SFC HIPRES BUILDING
IN THRU END OF THE WEEK BFR SHIFTING EAST INTO ATLANTIC. STILL
SOME DISCREPANCY IN MODELS WITH REGARD TO END-OF-WEEK SYSTEM WITH
00Z EC SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN GFS. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
WORK OUT DETAILS AND HV MAINTAINED SLGT CHC-CHC POPS, WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING AVP THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
14Z. FURTHER NORTH TOWARD BGM, MAY SEE JUST SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS
FLOAT THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME. STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF AN IFR
VSBY RESTRICTION AT ELM THROUGH 13Z BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER THIS TIME. REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL JUST SEE MID-DECK
MOVING THROUGH. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO TERMINALS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE SAME TIME. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THIS EARLY AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PROB30 IN AT THIS TIME
FOR ALL NY TERMINALS.

WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 300709
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
309 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TODAY. A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM
PULLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN CANADA.

925MB TEMPS IN THE 18C-20C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 OVER THE NORTHERN FA AND IN THE MID 70S OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN FA WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL MARINE FLOW
PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UL TROF PROGRESSES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF
APPROACHES LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT, AND PASSES THROUGH NY/PA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER DUE TO POOR LL AND ML
LAPSE RATES, COPIOUS MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH PLAN VIEW PWATS
ABOVE 1.50 INCHES FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. IT MAY PEAK ABOVE 1.75
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT CAPE IS TOO LOW FOR A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.

LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF STILL HANGING AROUND ON
MONDAY WHILE UL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CONVECTION EVEN ON MONDAY, SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 AM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE LONG TERM. BUMPED
POPS TO LKLY FOR TUE AS CDFNT PASSES THRU. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE
80S AHD OF FROPA BFR DROPPING SLIGHTLY BY WED, BUT STILL RMNG SLGTLY
ABV SEASONAL VALUES.

FOLLOWING FROPA, FLOW ALOFT WL BCM ZONAL WITH SFC HIPRES BUILDING
IN THRU END OF THE WEEK BFR SHIFTING EAST INTO ATLANTIC. STILL
SOME DISCREPANCY IN MODELS WITH REGARD TO END-OF-WEEK SYSTEM WITH
00Z EC SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN GFS. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
WORK OUT DETAILS AND HV MAINTAINED SLGT CHC-CHC POPS, WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT AS OVC MVFR DECK HAS NOW DEVELOPED JUST
SOUTH OF AVP. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THOUGHT IT BEST TO TEMPO IN
BKN020 DECK BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, THEN GO PREDOMINANT FROM 09Z TO
13Z. AFTER THIS TIME, EXPECT DECK TO SCATTER OUT WITH VFR EXPECTED
NEXT 24 HOURS. FURTHER NORTH, EXPECT MVFR VSBYS TO SET IN AT ELM THEN
BRIEFLY GO IFR BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z IN FOG. MAY SEE A SCT015 CIG
PASS OVER BGM TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH ALL OTHER TERMINALS JUST
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE VFR CIRRUS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5KTS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SAT NIGHT...PATCHY MVFR LATE IN -SHRA.

SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY SUNDAY
AND TUESDAY.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 300632
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
232 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TODAY. A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM
PULLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN CANADA.

925MB TEMPS IN THE 18C-20C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 OVER THE NORTHERN FA AND IN THE MID 70S OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN FA WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL MARINE FLOW
PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UL TROF PROGRESSES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF
APPROACHES LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT, AND PASSES THROUGH NY/PA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER DUE TO POOR LL AND ML
LAPSE RATES, COPIOUS MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH PLAN VIEW PWATS
ABOVE 1.50 INCHES FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. IT MAY PEAK ABOVE 1.75
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT CAPE IS TOO LOW FOR A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.

LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF STILL HANGING AROUND ON
MONDAY WHILE UL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CONVECTION EVEN ON MONDAY, SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR RDG OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL BE FLATTENED BY STRONGER ZONAL FLOW
MOVG INTO THE GTLAKES EARLY NXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED FNTL SYSTEM WILL MOV
THRU THE RGN IN THE TUE/TUE NGT TIME FRAME WITH SHRA/TSRA. HIGH
PRES IS XPCTD TO REBUILD INTO THE AREA BY WED. SOME TIMING DIFFS
AFTER THIS POINT W/RESPECT TO NXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM. WPC GUIDANCE
LOOKED GOOD BUT WE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS..1) SHOWED MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLDS WITH MIDWEEK FROPA, AND 2) LIMITED POPS TO HI CHC
GIVEN WE`RE STILL SVRL DAYS OUT. SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT AS OVC MVFR DECK HAS NOW DEVELOPED JUST
SOUTH OF AVP. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THOUGHT IT BEST TO TEMPO IN
BKN020 DECK BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, THEN GO PREDOMINANT FROM 09Z TO
13Z. AFTER THIS TIME, EXPECT DECK TO SCATTER OUT WITH VFR EXPECTED
NEXT 24 HOURS. FURTHER NORTH, EXPECT MVFR VSBYS TO SET IN AT ELM THEN
BRIEFLY GO IFR BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z IN FOG. MAY SEE A SCT015 CIG
PASS OVER BGM TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH ALL OTHER TERMINALS JUST
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE VFR CIRRUS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5KTS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SAT NIGHT...PATCHY MVFR LATE IN -SHRA.

SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY SUNDAY
AND TUESDAY.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PVN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 300532
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
132 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
815 PM UPDATE... OVERALL...THE FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO JUST
COSMETIC TWEAKS WILL BE MADE ATTM.

PATCHY HIGH-LVL CLDNS CONTS TO SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE UPR RIDGE
AXIS AND ACRS CNY/NE PA. HOWEVER...THAT`S ABT IT WITH REGARDS TO
CLOUD COVER...AS ANY LWR CLDS REMAIN WELL S OVER SRN/CNTRL
VA...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT.
THUS...A CLEAR TO PTLY CLDY FCST SHOULD FIT THE BILL.

GIVEN SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...WE`LL RETAIN A
MENTION OF PATCHY VLY FOG THROUGH THE TWIN TIERS.

OUR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FCST (RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE) SEEMS
REASONABLE...SO WE`RE GOING TO RUN WITH IT.

PREV DISC... 4 PM UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE DELAWARE, SUSQUEHANNA AND CHEMUNG BASINS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PROVIDE A MODERATING S/SW FLOW.
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF
UNTIL DARK. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
THE HIGHEST READINGS ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION
AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM DRAGS A WEAK SFC TROF THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY EVENING
AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES START ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SLIGHT CHC/CHC NE PA.
AS THIS BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AIRMASS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
RATHER JUICY WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ANY CONVECTION. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS
MINIMAL AS FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY HEALTHY ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ALTHOUGH CAPE LOOKS LIMITED DUE TO ABOVE MENTIONED MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HEATING DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNDAY NIGHT...INCLUDED LINGERING EVENING ACTIVITY WITH REMAINDER
OF PERIOD DRY AS WAVE PASSES.

MONDAY...BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY
SUNNY DAY WITH MAXES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHC POPS DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR RDG OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL BE FLATTENED BY STRONGER ZONAL FLOW
MOVG INTO THE GTLAKES EARLY NXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED FNTL SYSTEM WILL MOV
THRU THE RGN IN THE TUE/TUE NGT TIME FRAME WITH SHRA/TSRA. HIGH
PRES IS XPCTD TO REBUILD INTO THE AREA BY WED. SOME TIMING DIFFS
AFTER THIS POINT W/RESPECT TO NXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM. WPC GUIDANCE
LOOKED GOOD BUT WE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS..1) SHOWED MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLDS WITH MIDWEEK FROPA, AND 2) LIMITED POPS TO HI CHC
GIVEN WE`RE STILL SVRL DAYS OUT. SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT AS OVC MVFR DECK HAS NOW DEVELOPED JUST
SOUTH OF AVP. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THOUGHT IT BEST TO TEMPO IN
BKN020 DECK BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, THEN GO PREDOMINANT FROM 09Z TO
13Z. AFTER THIS TIME, EXPECT DECK TO SCATTER OUT WITH VFR EXPECTED
NEXT 24 HOURS. FURTHER NORTH, EXPECT MVFR VSBYS TO SET IN AT ELM THEN
BRIEFLY GO IFR BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z IN FOG. MAY SEE A SCT015 CIG
PASS OVER BGM TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH ALL OTHER TERMINALS JUST
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE VFR CIRRUS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5KTS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SAT NIGHT...PATCHY MVFR LATE IN -SHRA.

SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY SUNDAY
AND TUESDAY.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PVN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 300532
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
132 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
815 PM UPDATE... OVERALL...THE FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO JUST
COSMETIC TWEAKS WILL BE MADE ATTM.

PATCHY HIGH-LVL CLDNS CONTS TO SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE UPR RIDGE
AXIS AND ACRS CNY/NE PA. HOWEVER...THAT`S ABT IT WITH REGARDS TO
CLOUD COVER...AS ANY LWR CLDS REMAIN WELL S OVER SRN/CNTRL
VA...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT.
THUS...A CLEAR TO PTLY CLDY FCST SHOULD FIT THE BILL.

GIVEN SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...WE`LL RETAIN A
MENTION OF PATCHY VLY FOG THROUGH THE TWIN TIERS.

OUR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FCST (RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE) SEEMS
REASONABLE...SO WE`RE GOING TO RUN WITH IT.

PREV DISC... 4 PM UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE DELAWARE, SUSQUEHANNA AND CHEMUNG BASINS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PROVIDE A MODERATING S/SW FLOW.
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF
UNTIL DARK. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
THE HIGHEST READINGS ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION
AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM DRAGS A WEAK SFC TROF THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY EVENING
AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES START ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SLIGHT CHC/CHC NE PA.
AS THIS BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AIRMASS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
RATHER JUICY WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ANY CONVECTION. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS
MINIMAL AS FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY HEALTHY ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ALTHOUGH CAPE LOOKS LIMITED DUE TO ABOVE MENTIONED MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HEATING DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNDAY NIGHT...INCLUDED LINGERING EVENING ACTIVITY WITH REMAINDER
OF PERIOD DRY AS WAVE PASSES.

MONDAY...BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY
SUNNY DAY WITH MAXES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHC POPS DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR RDG OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL BE FLATTENED BY STRONGER ZONAL FLOW
MOVG INTO THE GTLAKES EARLY NXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED FNTL SYSTEM WILL MOV
THRU THE RGN IN THE TUE/TUE NGT TIME FRAME WITH SHRA/TSRA. HIGH
PRES IS XPCTD TO REBUILD INTO THE AREA BY WED. SOME TIMING DIFFS
AFTER THIS POINT W/RESPECT TO NXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM. WPC GUIDANCE
LOOKED GOOD BUT WE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS..1) SHOWED MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLDS WITH MIDWEEK FROPA, AND 2) LIMITED POPS TO HI CHC
GIVEN WE`RE STILL SVRL DAYS OUT. SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT AS OVC MVFR DECK HAS NOW DEVELOPED JUST
SOUTH OF AVP. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THOUGHT IT BEST TO TEMPO IN
BKN020 DECK BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, THEN GO PREDOMINANT FROM 09Z TO
13Z. AFTER THIS TIME, EXPECT DECK TO SCATTER OUT WITH VFR EXPECTED
NEXT 24 HOURS. FURTHER NORTH, EXPECT MVFR VSBYS TO SET IN AT ELM THEN
BRIEFLY GO IFR BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z IN FOG. MAY SEE A SCT015 CIG
PASS OVER BGM TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH ALL OTHER TERMINALS JUST
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE VFR CIRRUS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5KTS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SAT NIGHT...PATCHY MVFR LATE IN -SHRA.

SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY SUNDAY
AND TUESDAY.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 300019
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
819 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
815 PM UPDATE... OVERALL...THE FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO JUST
COSMETIC TWEAKS WILL BE MADE ATTM.

PATCHY HIGH-LVL CLDNS CONTS TO SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE UPR RIDGE
AXIS AND ACRS CNY/NE PA. HOWEVER...THAT`S ABT IT WITH REGARDS TO
CLOUD COVER...AS ANY LWR CLDS REMAIN WELL S OVER SRN/CNTRL
VA...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT.
THUS...A CLEAR TO PTLY CLDY FCST SHOULD FIT THE BILL.

GIVEN SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...WE`LL RETAIN A
MENTION OF PATCHY VLY FOG THROUGH THE TWIN TIERS.

OUR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FCST (RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE) SEEMS
REASONABLE...SO WE`RE GOING TO RUN WITH IT.

PREV DISC... 4 PM UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE DELAWARE, SUSQUEHANNA AND CHEMUNG BASINS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PROVIDE A MODERATING S/SW FLOW.
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF
UNTIL DARK. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
THE HIGHEST READINGS ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION
AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM DRAGS A WEAK SFC TROF THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY EVENING
AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES START ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SLIGHT CHC/CHC NE PA.
AS THIS BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AIRMASS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
RATHER JUICY WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ANY CONVECTION. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS
MINIMAL AS FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY HEALTHY ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ALTHOUGH CAPE LOOKS LIMITED DUE TO ABOVE MENTIONED MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HEATING DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNDAY NIGHT...INCLUDED LINGERING EVENING ACTIVITY WITH REMAINDER
OF PERIOD DRY AS WAVE PASSES.

MONDAY...BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY
SUNNY DAY WITH MAXES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHC POPS DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR RDG OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL BE FLATTENED BY STRONGER ZONAL FLOW
MOVG INTO THE GTLAKES EARLY NXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED FNTL SYSTEM WILL MOV
THRU THE RGN IN THE TUE/TUE NGT TIME FRAME WITH SHRA/TSRA. HIGH
PRES IS XPCTD TO REBUILD INTO THE AREA BY WED. SOME TIMING DIFFS
AFTER THIS POINT W/RESPECT TO NXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM. WPC GUIDANCE
LOOKED GOOD BUT WE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS..1) SHOWED MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLDS WITH MIDWEEK FROPA, AND 2) LIMITED POPS TO HI CHC
GIVEN WE`RE STILL SVRL DAYS OUT. SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
KELM AGAIN TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF IFR VISBYS. THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE OF THE NIGHT IS... WILL A LOW STRATUS DECK DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A LOW DECK DEVELOPING
BRIEFLY OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT... BUT CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING AS BELIEVE THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE FURTHER TOWARDS
THE WEST THAN GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT. DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION OF
SCT MVFR DECK IN THE TAF ATTM. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT REMAIN UNDER 12
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO
APPROACH THE REGION TOWARDS 00Z SUNDAY AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...PATCHY MVFR LATE IN HZ/BR.

SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY SUNDAY
AND TUESDAY.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 300019
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
819 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
815 PM UPDATE... OVERALL...THE FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO JUST
COSMETIC TWEAKS WILL BE MADE ATTM.

PATCHY HIGH-LVL CLDNS CONTS TO SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE UPR RIDGE
AXIS AND ACRS CNY/NE PA. HOWEVER...THAT`S ABT IT WITH REGARDS TO
CLOUD COVER...AS ANY LWR CLDS REMAIN WELL S OVER SRN/CNTRL
VA...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT.
THUS...A CLEAR TO PTLY CLDY FCST SHOULD FIT THE BILL.

GIVEN SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...WE`LL RETAIN A
MENTION OF PATCHY VLY FOG THROUGH THE TWIN TIERS.

OUR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FCST (RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE) SEEMS
REASONABLE...SO WE`RE GOING TO RUN WITH IT.

PREV DISC... 4 PM UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE DELAWARE, SUSQUEHANNA AND CHEMUNG BASINS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PROVIDE A MODERATING S/SW FLOW.
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF
UNTIL DARK. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
THE HIGHEST READINGS ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION
AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM DRAGS A WEAK SFC TROF THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY EVENING
AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES START ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SLIGHT CHC/CHC NE PA.
AS THIS BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AIRMASS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
RATHER JUICY WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ANY CONVECTION. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS
MINIMAL AS FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY HEALTHY ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ALTHOUGH CAPE LOOKS LIMITED DUE TO ABOVE MENTIONED MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HEATING DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNDAY NIGHT...INCLUDED LINGERING EVENING ACTIVITY WITH REMAINDER
OF PERIOD DRY AS WAVE PASSES.

MONDAY...BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY
SUNNY DAY WITH MAXES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHC POPS DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR RDG OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL BE FLATTENED BY STRONGER ZONAL FLOW
MOVG INTO THE GTLAKES EARLY NXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED FNTL SYSTEM WILL MOV
THRU THE RGN IN THE TUE/TUE NGT TIME FRAME WITH SHRA/TSRA. HIGH
PRES IS XPCTD TO REBUILD INTO THE AREA BY WED. SOME TIMING DIFFS
AFTER THIS POINT W/RESPECT TO NXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM. WPC GUIDANCE
LOOKED GOOD BUT WE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS..1) SHOWED MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLDS WITH MIDWEEK FROPA, AND 2) LIMITED POPS TO HI CHC
GIVEN WE`RE STILL SVRL DAYS OUT. SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
KELM AGAIN TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF IFR VISBYS. THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE OF THE NIGHT IS... WILL A LOW STRATUS DECK DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A LOW DECK DEVELOPING
BRIEFLY OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT... BUT CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING AS BELIEVE THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE FURTHER TOWARDS
THE WEST THAN GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT. DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION OF
SCT MVFR DECK IN THE TAF ATTM. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT REMAIN UNDER 12
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO
APPROACH THE REGION TOWARDS 00Z SUNDAY AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...PATCHY MVFR LATE IN HZ/BR.

SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY SUNDAY
AND TUESDAY.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KAH







000
FXUS61 KBGM 300007
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
807 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. LATE TONIGHT
DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE
DELAWARE, SUSQUEHANNA AND CHEMUNG BASINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PROVIDE A MODERATING S/SW FLOW.
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF
UNTIL DARK. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
THE HIGHEST READINGS ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION
AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM DRAGS A WEAK SFC TROF THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY EVENING
AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES START ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SLIGHT CHC/CHC NE PA.
AS THIS BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AIRMASS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
RATHER JUICY WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ANY CONVECTION. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS
MINIMAL AS FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY HEALTHY ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ALTHOUGH CAPE LOOKS LIMITED DUE TO ABOVE MENTIONED MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HEATING DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNDAY NIGHT...INCLUDED LINGERING EVENING ACTIVITY WITH REMAINDER
OF PERIOD DRY AS WAVE PASSES.

MONDAY...BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY
SUNNY DAY WITH MAXES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHC POPS DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR RDG OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL BE FLATTENED BY STRONGER ZONAL FLOW
MOVG INTO THE GTLAKES EARLY NXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED FNTL SYSTEM WILL MOV
THRU THE RGN IN THE TUE/TUE NGT TIME FRAME WITH SHRA/TSRA. HIGH
PRES IS XPCTD TO REBUILD INTO THE AREA BY WED. SOME TIMING DIFFS
AFTER THIS POINT W/RESPECT TO NXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM. WPC GUIDANCE
LOOKED GOOD BUT WE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS..1) SHOWED MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLDS WITH MIDWEEK FROPA, AND 2) LIMITED POPS TO HI CHC
GIVEN WE`RE STILL SVRL DAYS OUT. SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
KELM AGAIN TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF IFR VISBYS. THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE OF THE NIGHT IS... WILL A LOW STRATUS DECK DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A LOW DECK DEVELOPING
BRIEFLY OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT... BUT CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING AS BELIEVE THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE FURTHER TOWARDS
THE WEST THAN GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT. DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION OF
SCT MVFR DECK IN THE TAF ATTM. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT REMAIN UNDER 12
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO
APPROACH THE REGION TOWARDS 00Z SUNDAY AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...PATCHY MVFR LATE IN HZ/BR.

SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY SUNDAY
AND TUESDAY.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 300007
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
807 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. LATE TONIGHT
DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE
DELAWARE, SUSQUEHANNA AND CHEMUNG BASINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PROVIDE A MODERATING S/SW FLOW.
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF
UNTIL DARK. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
THE HIGHEST READINGS ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION
AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM DRAGS A WEAK SFC TROF THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY EVENING
AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES START ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SLIGHT CHC/CHC NE PA.
AS THIS BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AIRMASS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
RATHER JUICY WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ANY CONVECTION. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS
MINIMAL AS FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY HEALTHY ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ALTHOUGH CAPE LOOKS LIMITED DUE TO ABOVE MENTIONED MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HEATING DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNDAY NIGHT...INCLUDED LINGERING EVENING ACTIVITY WITH REMAINDER
OF PERIOD DRY AS WAVE PASSES.

MONDAY...BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY
SUNNY DAY WITH MAXES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHC POPS DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR RDG OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL BE FLATTENED BY STRONGER ZONAL FLOW
MOVG INTO THE GTLAKES EARLY NXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED FNTL SYSTEM WILL MOV
THRU THE RGN IN THE TUE/TUE NGT TIME FRAME WITH SHRA/TSRA. HIGH
PRES IS XPCTD TO REBUILD INTO THE AREA BY WED. SOME TIMING DIFFS
AFTER THIS POINT W/RESPECT TO NXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM. WPC GUIDANCE
LOOKED GOOD BUT WE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS..1) SHOWED MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLDS WITH MIDWEEK FROPA, AND 2) LIMITED POPS TO HI CHC
GIVEN WE`RE STILL SVRL DAYS OUT. SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
KELM AGAIN TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF IFR VISBYS. THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE OF THE NIGHT IS... WILL A LOW STRATUS DECK DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A LOW DECK DEVELOPING
BRIEFLY OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT... BUT CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING AS BELIEVE THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE FURTHER TOWARDS
THE WEST THAN GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT. DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION OF
SCT MVFR DECK IN THE TAF ATTM. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT REMAIN UNDER 12
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO
APPROACH THE REGION TOWARDS 00Z SUNDAY AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...PATCHY MVFR LATE IN HZ/BR.

SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY SUNDAY
AND TUESDAY.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KAH









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